04-27-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals -132 v. Houston Astros |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -132 (4.5* MLB POD); I love the Cardinals here Kyle Lohse is used to fast starts like this and he has a 2.99 ERA in his career vs. the Astros with 9 of 10 quality starts posting a 2.56 ERA. I know we will get 6innings or more with no more than 3 ER from him here today. The Astros won last night in the 9th and that sets us up well for today as the Astros are 1-10 following a win and haven't won back to back at home in quite some time. Lance Berkman continued his hot hitting yesterday going 2-5 he is 1-2 with a HR off Happ who St Louis had one game where they got him out in the 2nd inning as Happ gave up 7 ER in 1 inning and the other he went the full game. Overall the Cards have a .375 average with a 1.022 OPS vs. Happ and I feel confident they can get more than the Astros can on Wednesday. The Stros have definitely picked up their bats as of late, but a lot of that damage is coming against left handers and I don't see the Cards bullpen that has been strong all year struggling again as they did last night. JA Happ is a guy I will definitely favor in match ups in the future but not here as he has struggled in 3 of his 4 starts this year and I haven't seen any signs of him coming out of it so I don't expect a dominant start which is what he'll need to give the Astros a chance to win.
|
04-26-11 |
Indiana Pacers +8.5 v. Chicago Bulls |
Top |
89-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
4.4* NBA POD
|
04-26-11 |
Boston Red Sox -125 v. Baltimore Orioles |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-125 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -125 (4.5* MLB POD); Red Sox are hot right now and the Orioles are not going 2-11 since their hot start. The Sox have won 6 straight and their rotation has a 0.88 ERA over the last 9 games while the Orioles have just 27 runs and are batting .215 in the 11 losses. Markakis and Luke Scott are a combined 3-36 off Bucholz. Bucholz has struggled so far, but looked better in his last start. He is 3-0 with a 0.32 ERA in his last 4 starts vs. the Orioles. Baltiomore has 110 ab vs. Bucholz and a .227 average. There is some success but overall Bucholz was a dominant pitcher a year ago and he's starting to show returns of that and was 10-3 away with a 2.45 ERA and the Sox are 16-5 i his last 21 road games. The Orioles are 11-23 in their last 34 following an off day and 32-71 in their last 103 vs. the Red Sox at home. Zach Britton has been dominant at home, but the Red Sox are a dangerous line up that has started to hit. They are #4 in runs scored vs. LHP and #12 in OPS at .746. Boston's bullpen is even coming around while Baltimore is the main reason for their struggles with a 7.20 ERA in their last 10 games.
|
04-25-11 |
Cincinnati Reds +114 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
9-5 |
Win
|
114 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
Reds +118 (4* MLB POD); The Reds have cooled off big time since opening season 5-0, but now they play an opponent they have dominated going 18-3 in their last 21 meetings. I think nothing changes as Bonson Arroyo who has been off in his last two starts is poised for a great outing as he's 2-1 in his last 5 starts at Miller Park with a 2.02 ERA. He goes up against Chris Narverson the lefty who has been good all year, but Narverson seems to be struggling with his control in the last two starts with 7 walks which is not a good sign. Also the Reds have the least amount of at bats vs. LHP and that's because they have a .365 average and a 1.071 OPS this year. Votto who remains hot while the Reds have been cold is 4-7 with a HR off Narverson.
|
04-25-11 |
San Antonio Spurs -1.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies |
Top |
86-104 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
4.4* POD
|
04-24-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins -125 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
4.5* MLB POD
|
04-24-11 |
Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 |
Top |
82-86 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
4.4* POD
|
04-23-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -4.5 |
Top |
97-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
4.4* POD
|
04-23-11 |
Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -142 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-142 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -142 (5** MLB POD) I was right on with the Cardinals last night as they continue their dominance over the Reds at home now 42-17 in their last 59. I'm back at it with the Cards again today. Pujols is super hot and the during the 9-3 run the Cardinals are on their entire team is hitting and they won't need many runs in today's game with Chris Carpenter on the hill. Carpenter knows how important this match up is and how badly the Cardinals want to continue this streak of dominance over the Reds. Carpenter has won 10 straight vs. the Reds posting a 1.37 ERA allowing only 45 hits 8 walks in 72.1 innings pitched that's a 0.73 WHIP! Now that's impressive. Travis Wood has been inconsistent this year and the Cardinals have shown an ability to beat left handed pitchers over their last 5 games alone they are hitting .337 vs. LHP. The Reds are not likely to give him much run support here as they do lead the league in runs scored but most of that damage has happened at home as their road bats don't seem to work as great they have a .230 average and 3.04 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road this year. I look for the Cardinals and their bullpen if they need it to keep the Reds in check all day. Bonus - Scott Bary behind home plate and the home team is 20-8 in his last 28 behind the dish.
|
04-22-11 |
Cincinnati: E Volquez v. St Louis: K McClella -130 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
I love the Cardinals in this one tonight as we continue our winning ways on our POD
|
04-22-11 |
Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 180.5 |
Top |
84-88 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
4.4* pod
|
04-21-11 |
Chicago Bulls -4 v. Indiana Pacers |
Top |
88-84 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
4.4* NBA POD
|
04-21-11 |
Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers -140 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
Dodgers -139 (5* MLB POD) We went against Clayton Kershaw in his last start as he had a bad history against the Cardinals here today we love him at home as the Braves have not had much success in limited at bats. He's got a 1.98 ERA in two starts vs. the Braves and active hitters have a .271 ops and .083 average in 24 combined at bats. Kershaw has been great this year with the exception of the Cardinals game and I think he returns to that today when he faces a Braves team that can't hit a lick vs. LH pitchers this year just .209 average and 1.91 runs per 9 this season as they are #29 with just 11 runs vs. LHP this year that comes with a .578 OPS. They are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a LH starter. Jarr Jurrjens is great but just making his second start since opening the year with an oblique injury I'm still not sold and the Dodgers two hottest hitters have had a lot of success against Jurrjens a combined 8-20 for Kemp and Ethier. Ethier on a 17 game hit streak and Kemp is leading the majors with a .426 average. Jones and Heyward are a combined 1-26 in the series and shouldn't get any better vs. Kershaw.
|
04-20-11 |
New Orleans Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 188 |
Top |
78-87 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
4.4* NBA pod
|
04-20-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -130 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rays -130 4.5* MLB pod Wade Davis has been good against the sox and the sox offense has really struggled just 5 total runs in their last four games. Humber finally came back to earth in his last start and I expect the same today as he faces the hot rays For second time this year. Rays now are hitting .312 in their last 5 Vs righties
|
04-19-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 183.5 |
Top |
82-88 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
4.4* NBA POD
|
04-19-11 |
Houston Astros v. New York Mets -135 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
Mets -138 (4.5 * mlb pod) Niese is due for a good start he's had good pitches and just made mistakes in recent games, but vs. Houston at home I think he bounces back as he has given up just 2 ER in 14 innings vs. the Astros. The Astros are just 1-6 in their last7 vs. lh starters and 17-35 in thier last 52 as a road dog. Mets need this game if they will be any kind of a factor in the NL East although we know they probably won't. Wand Rodriguez is known for struggling on the road and I think he will again today as Houston is just 7-20 in their last 27 in New York and the Mets hit lefties better and have a .333 average vs. Wandy with a 1.044 OPS. Beltran, Hairston and Wright all solid numbers vs. the lefty.
|
04-17-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals -127 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-127 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -128 (4.5* MLB POD) Carpenter comes off an unusual experience a blown start. He went 4 innings gave up 8 ER at Arizona. He'll look to bounce back vs. the Dodgers and he's backed by his offense that is just scorching hot scoring 9.4 runs per game over their last 7 games with a .376 average. The Dodgers offense is really in shambles facing Carpenter won't help. Carp is 6-0 with a 1.77 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Dodgers. LA vs. RHP this year have a .240 average and are averaging 2.58 runs per 9. Cards have dominated this match up winning 40 of the last 58 and it doesn't seem like it will stop on Sunday when they face Chad Billingsley. Billingsley is 1-3 in 6 starts vs. the Cardinals with a 6.16 ERA. Pujols has now gotten hot after a slow start 10-23 in his last 5 games with 3 homers. Why is this line today look so good because Billingsley had a 0.94 ERA during his 6 day starts last year, but he did not pitch as well during his home starts with a 4.29 ERA.
|
04-16-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks +102 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
Dbacks +102 (4** MLB POD); Cardinals +135 (2.5* play) The Giants are hot right now but they are also on the road against a hot hitting club in Arizona. They send their starter that has the most trouble up there on Saturday. Barry Zito has been battling with his timing and delivery so far in 2010 and I think he'll struggle vs. the Diamondbacks a team that has killed lefties dating back to last year where they were #8 in the league with a .745 OPS. Thus far this year they are hitting .290 with 7.25 runs per 9 and a .884 ops vs. lefties. Zito is very well known among the Diamondbacks as they have 192 collective at bats among their active hitters for today. Steven Drew is 11-32 with 8 RBI's and Zito struggled last year going just 9.2 IP in two starts giving up 10 hits 8 walks and 9 ER. The start he struggled ironically was with Jerry Meals behind the plate on August 28th vs. the Dbacks. Zito went just 3.2 IP gave up 6 hits 5 walks and 7 ER. That may just be a coincindence but interesting to note. Zito in his career is 3-8 in 14 starts vs. the Diamondbacks with a 5.15 ERA. In the last 5 games the Dbacks are scoring 6.7 runs per 9 innings something the Giants are not accustomed to seeing out of the NL West so I think we see good value in this line especially with Joe Saunders making a home start. Saunders won't be a sexy name by any means when betting, but he keeps his teams in the game. His switch the National League was a good one a year ago and in his 7 home starts with the Dbacks he posted a 3.12 ERA. I think he can get used to that again this year. Giants have struggled this year vs. LHP as they have a .234 average 3.28 runs per 9 and .625 ops. That's over 250 points lower than what the Dbacks are doing vs. lefties and you can certainly argue that Zito vs. Saunders is an even pitching match up. Dbacks are at home and the Giants are 1-10 in Zitos last 11 starts. I like the Dbacks here to hit Zito hard and hold on for a win
|
04-16-11 |
Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188 |
Top |
99-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
Bulls/Pacers U188 *4.4 NBA POD The Bulls are one of the better defensive teams in the league and they are 23-8 on the under when on revenge and that's exactly what they will be on here tonight as the Pacers won the last match up on their home court. This will be a different animal for the Pacers on the road in Chicago vs. the Bulls who are #22 in Pace and not to mention these two teams no each other very well. Also know that when the Pacers want to play defense they can as they were #7 in efficiency field goal defense while the Bulls were #1 in overall FG defense.
|
04-15-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays -125 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rays -125 (5* MLB POD) We are 31-9 in our last 40 5*+ plays that includes NBA, NCAAB, and MLB.
|
04-14-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals -130 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Royals -127 (4.5* MLB POD) Went back and forth with the Braves and Royals being my picks at play of the day now that I have won 3 straight the confidence is here and I think the Royals bats are hotter right now.
|
04-13-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers -138 v. Sacramento Kings |
Top |
116-108 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
5** NBA POD
|
04-13-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants -145 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
Giants -145 4.5* MLB POD I will go with the Giants to back up their 5-4 win yesterday.
|
04-11-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -101 v. San Francisco Giants |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
Mets -105 (2.2* Early Play); Dodger +100 (4* MLB POD) Pelfrey looks like he will rebound he's been a slow starter and if he pitches with his fast ball and splitter he should be effective at home. Mets have hit Hammel hard and I like the line up they put out there for tonight. Pelfrey's last 3 home starts vs. the Rockies he's gone 21.1 IP giving up 17 hits and 0 ER. Kershaw has been in 7 career games vs. the Giants and 6 starts he now has a 1.23 ERA vs. them this season. Bumgarner is another lefty star on the horizon but I think he will struggle at times in his sophmore season and it looks like Kershaw is ready to be a Cy Young candidate for the first time in his career.
|
04-10-11 |
Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins -132 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-132 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
TWINS 4*
|
04-09-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays +100 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
Rays +100 (4** MLB POD) Like the Rays in this spot they scored 9 runs and 5 in the 9th inning to get a win over the Sox yesterday. The White Sox bullpen is really struggling with a 5.79 ERA this year and that was the confidence the Rays needed. Ironically it came in their first game after the Manny distractions. I don't see the White Sox getting much of a break from their bullpen when Phillip Humber takes the mound. Humber a once touted prospect of the Mets organization is now 28 and going nowhere fast he's had a hard time and I expect him to not go very deep into this game seeing as they have him as a reliever and he's filling in for the injured Jake Peavy. Adam Dunn will also be out of the line up today which should make things easier for Wade Davis who looks to continue success vs. the White Sox as he had a 2.19 ERA in two starts vs. them a year ago. White Sox have been hot with the bats scoring 7.4 runs per game, but take Dunn out and add in the fact they are allowing 6 runs per game and I think the Rays will win this game.
|
04-08-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners -120 |
Top |
12-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
Mariners -120 (4.8* MLB POD) Really like the Mariners in their home opener tonight despite their slow bats.
|
04-08-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 |
Top |
93-82 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
Cavs +10 -120 (4.4* NBA POD) Bulls come off a huge emotional victory last night over the Celtics that they had to have moving to the playoffs. Now they face the lowly Cavs and while I expect the Bulls to likely win one has to feel the Cavs can put up a fight for a team looking ahead to the playoffs.
|
04-07-11 |
Oakland A's v. Toronto Blue Jays -118 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-118 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
Blue Jays -115 (4.5* MLB POD) A rough day yesterday as the Red Sox could not take advantage of early opportunities but I like our chances early on Thursday to correct the loss from yesterday with the Jays who we get some good value on.
|
04-06-11 |
Sacramento Kings +10.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
92-124 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
4.4* POD
|
04-06-11 |
Boston Red Sox -159 v. Cleveland Indians |
Top |
4-8 |
Loss |
-159 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -159 (5.5* MLB POD) Time for the Sox to get out of their slump and Dice K is the guy for the job he is 5-1 last year following a REd Sox loss and he's dominated the Indians almost unhittable in his last two starts vs. the Indians giving up 1 ER in 16 IP. Indians have just a .188 average in 64 at bats vs. Dice K and the Red Sox are 15-3 in his last 18 starts vs. the AL Central and 41-16 in his last 57 as a favorite 25-11 in his last 36 road starts and 17-5 in his last 22 as a road favorite so Vegas usually gets him right on the road. Talbot goes for the Indians and that's great he was 4.41 ERA last year , but most of that success came on the road oddly enough where he posted a 2.58 ERA. At home it was a nightmare with a 5.82 ERA. In limited at bats Boston has a .417 average including Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury going a combined 6-10 with 2 HR. I look for both the offense and defense to come together today.
|
04-05-11 |
Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers -114 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
Brewers -114 (4**MLB POD) Gallardo is the teams stopper and I expect them to let him really pitch tonight against hte Braves. Brewers bullpen has really hurt them so expect him to continue his success in April as he was solid in his first start and has a 2.67 ERA in his last 3 years in April starts. Braves have just a .236 average among active batters vs. Gallardo. Derek Lowe will go for the Braves against the Brewers and the he has not had a lot of luck with the Brewers hitters who are hitting .380 in 142 AB. Morgan, Weeks, Braun, and Mcgehee combined are 27-55 good for a .491 average. Lowe got off to a slow start in April last year and he goes up against a desperate team trying to get their first win of the season.
|
04-04-11 |
Butler +3.5 v. Connecticut |
Top |
41-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 52 m |
Show
|
Butler +3.5 5.5* pod For uconn to win and cover the spread will be a challenge both these teams play excellent defense and have limited scorin threats. Which means low scoring and a tight Game and I believe it will be another Game decided in the final minutes. Uconn really doesn't gave an offensive game inside an butler is one of the better teams defending the perimeter and dribble penetration. Butler will have an advantage on the boards like they have all tournament this is the key to the game butler will get second chance opportunities if they can take advantage they will win. Key player is butlers guard Shawn vanzant we Know all about Mack and Howard if vanzant can knock down some threes I give butler an excellent shot at winning.
|
04-04-11 |
Detroit Tigers v. Baltimore Orioles -125 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
Orioles -125 (4*MLB POD); Yankees RL +125 (2.5* DOG) Love the Orioles Porcello was extremely shaky last year before returning to AAA to get his stuff figured out. He hasn't been great this year and the O's are off to their best start since 1997. O's have yet to start hitting the ball and I think that will start today against Porcello who in 37 AB they have a .351 average. This is a line up that really did get better in the off season with additions of Lee, Guerrero and Reynolds to name a few. I think Markakis and Adam Jone are going to have huge years with some talent around them and this Baltimore team will do a lot of damage out of the division. Arieta was pretty good last year including a 6 1/3 inning performance giving up just 1 er to the Tigers in Detroit in July. At this point he's still much of an unknown for Detroit and I think they struggle. Porcello also very shaky in April he had an 8.03 ERA last year and 6.23 the year before his ERA on the road is nearly 1.5 runs higher than at home a year ago. Yankees runline got to love that they absolutely dominate rh pitchers at their own ball park and although I think Baker is in for an improved year I think he will struggle vs. the Yankees on Monday. Teixera is a classic slow starter off to a great start and is 6-12 vs. Baker while Jeter Cano are both over .300 and more importantly the table setter Gardner is 4-6 that means early runs for the Yanks and I think Ivan Nova will get off to a quick start. Twins are just 18-57 in their last 75 overall vs. the Yankees and Baker has been a classic slow starter. The last two years he's had a 5.72 and 9.82 ERA in April. The Twins bullpen struggled in Toronto and their hitting was even worst vs. RHP now they have to face another young RHP with good stuff that they haven't had a lot of exposure to. Remember what Kyle Drabek did.
|
04-03-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -135 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-135 |
13 h 46 m |
Show
|
Blue Jays -135 (4.5* MLB POD) I don't normally like playing a team 3 days in a row but the Jays keep winning and the Twins just can't get it together vs. the AL East. I can't help but back them yet again against Nick Blackburn. Blackburn has been decent in past years but last year he was just atrocious on the road because he allows too many fly balls and Toronto is not going to cater to his needs as they are the top HR hitting club and have already showed with a .366 average vs. RHP this year that they are not going to slow down. Blackburn had a worst under 4K's per 9 IP and he had a 7.57 ERA on the road vs. his 3.71 ERA at home. You'll get some good value with him at home, but on the road I would not back this guy. He looked good in the spring and that's why we have a good line here. The Jays send out another solid starter in lefty Brett Cecil who had a 3.55 ERA in April last year and in two game starts vs. Minnesota he has gone 13 IP giving up just 3 ER the Jays won both games. Twins will continue to struggle vs. lefties on the road on Sunday as they just don't match up well and they have a .200 average vs. Cecil will face 5 lefties as probable starters for the Twins.
|
04-02-11 |
Virginia Commonwealth v. Butler -2.5 |
Top |
62-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
Butler -2.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD) Well I hated to see the match up of two teams I backed multiple times and cashed with during this tournament, but I like Butler. Experience is not everything but it will be what gives Butler the edge in this game. Butler also beat Colonial conference foe of VCU Old Dominion who beat VCU 2 of 3 times and 2 in a row to close the season. If you can believe it VCU is 298th in rebound margin this year and 238th in FG defense. Somehow they are here because they shot 44% from three this tournament and their defense has forced turnovers. With the exception of the Purdue game where they shot out of their minds they have relied on turnovers and their 3 point game. Forcing 14, 16, 17, and 15 along the way, just 7 against Purdue, but again they put up 96 points because they shot nearly 60% that just won't happen against Butler one of the more diciplined teams in the nation. They also are not going to force Butler into 10+ turnovers. With Shelvin Mack handling the ball and an experienced back court and experience in this game I expect Butler to take care of business. Butler is also holding opponents under 29% from three this post season and are known for their defense. They are 40-16-2 ATS in their last 58 non conference games and 17-5 ats in their last 22 tournament games. Joey Rodriguez and the rest of the perimeter shooters are nice but eventually they will cool off and I'm guessing this will be the game. Butler will play their slower half court game and take advantage. It will be a close game in the 2nd half but I'm confident the experience will give Butler the edge down the stretch.
|
04-02-11 |
San Francisco Giants -107 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
10-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
Giants -105 (4** MLB POD) The Giants will try not to go 0-3 this year as they match up against the Dodgers and Ted Lilly. In reality both of these games were one run games I expect another close game today, but if the Giants can correct the errors they could be 2-0. Cain was dominant last year and he has improved each year since 2008. He gave up one unearned run in the post season over 21.2 innings pitched. The Dodgers have hit just .230 to start the year so hitting still is going to be an issue with them last year. Cain has been good in April over the last three years he has a 3.50 ERA overall while Lilly has a 4-7 record and 5.23 ERA in April and he's a traditional slow starter. He's struggled vs. San Fran last year going 0-1 giving up 8 ER in 10.1 IP. The main reason was Buster Posey and I think Posey will have an impact on today's game as well. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a LH starter and I think they can have more success this season vs. LH starters. Look for the Giants to show that they are still a resilient team and win game 3 and avoid getting swept
|
04-01-11 |
Creighton +4.5 v. Oregon |
Top |
69-71 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
3.3* play
|
04-01-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -124 |
Top |
3-13 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
Blue Jays -123 (5* POD) Ricky Romero goes up against Carl Pavano tonight in Toronto where the Blue Jays were 45-33 last year. The Twins were a solid road team at 41-40. Romero has been excellent to start the year as he had a 2.25 ERA in April in 2010 and 1.71 through the first month of his season in 2009. He
|
03-31-11 |
Wichita State -1.5 v. Alabama |
Top |
66-57 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 35 m |
Show
|
Wichita State -1.5 (5.5* NCAAB POD) Don't know much about Wichita State well I'll give them some credibility right off the bat if their blow out of Washington State in the semifinal was not enough. They have 5 seniors and 7 players that can score. They lost to Uconn early in the season by just 4 points a team in the final four. They also lost to VCU by just 1 point and won at Alabama's rival LSU. Wichita is 4-2 on neutral court and 14-4 on neutral/away while Alabama always seems to struggle in these type of games where they are not enjoying their home court. They are 6-11 on the year in these games and 4-11 before this tournament started. I think the #4 seed being the favorite has a lot to say. Look for Wichita St to get Green in foul problems much like Colorado did and win this game.
|
03-31-11 |
Detroit Tigers v. New York Yankees -145 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 1 m |
Show
|
Yankees -143 (4.5* MLB POD) Many are doubting the Bronx bombers this year but you really can't go against this team with CC on the mound as they are 22-5 in their last 27 with him on the mound as a favorite at home. Verlander is a top pitcher himself, but the Tigers are just 10-27 in their last 37 in New York and Verlander has an ERA over 6 for April over the last three years. Yankees crush RHP at home which led to an impressive 72-27 in their last 99 vs. a RH starter that's a win % over 72%. I love that we get this line at -143 it is some what manageable. Last year CC improved on his early season struggles by going 3-1 in April with a 3.12 ERA and he has always been night and day vs. Detroit from home and away. He's struggled in Detroit, but at home in the last two years he's gone 2-0 giving up just 2 ER in 14 IP and just 10 hits. Verlander also was not the same pitcher on the road a year ago. He seems to really struggle to go deep into games vs. the Yankees in his last two starts he didn't give up the hits or runs, but in just 11.2 IP he threw 233 pitches gave up 9 hits and 9 BB and 3 ER. Add in the Yankees dominance over the Tigers and Verlanders struggles on the road and early in the season and I think the oddsmakers did us a favor.
|
03-30-11 |
Santa Clara +9.5 v. Iona |
Top |
76-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
3.3*
|
03-30-11 |
Houston Rockets +3 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
Top |
97-108 |
Loss |
-106 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
4.4* play
|
03-29-11 |
Alabama -135 v. Colorado |
Top |
62-61 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
6** POD
|
03-28-11 |
Oregon +4.5 v. Creighton |
Top |
76-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
Oregon +4.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Its a unique tournament in that the finals are a best of 3 and Creighton will host Oregon in game #1. I think both teams match up well and are even. The edge comes on the side of Oregon and their head coach Dana Altman who spent 16 years as the Creighton coach before he left in April. Altman was Creighton basketball and ironically he sees them in an all familiar place Monday night. He has connection to all of these players and I believe he will use it to his advantage.
|
03-28-11 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Charlotte Bobcats -108 |
Top |
86-87 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
5* pod
|
03-27-11 |
Kentucky -110 v. North Carolina |
Top |
76-69 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 46 m |
Show
|
Kentucky -1 (5.5** NCAAB POD) Well we came up with another dagger with our big play on Saturday with Butler getting us our last two 5.5* winners. Today it is the Wildcats. After fading them the other night I"m now a believer and their 9-1 record on neutral court tells me they can win in these tournament style games. Also this is a huge revenge game after a two point loss at UNC earlier this season. What happened in that game? Tyler Zeller had 27 points and was the main reason why UNC had 16 more free throw attempts. Well there is NO WAY Zeller will have that kind of game again. The silent MVP of Kentucky played just 21 minutes in that game and has really come onto the scene this post season and that's #55 Josh Harrelson. He's been a beast and he led the ACC in offensive rebounds. I believe he will have a big impact on this game just as he has had in previous games. Also Kentucky shot just 38.7% from the field and had a -8 rebound margin also both correctable. Both teams have improved since that time but I believe Kentucky to be the better team of the two and the team that improved the most. UNC is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 as an under dog .5-6.5.
|
03-26-11 |
Butler +4.5 v. Florida |
Top |
74-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
Butler +4.5 BODOG (5.5* POD) It is hard not to go with a team that is 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 as an under dog 22-6 ATS in their last 28 on neutral court as an under dog and 20-4-2 last 26 vs. a team with a win% above .600. This team gets it done in an ugly way, but they get it done. In the end trends are made to balance out, but I"m not betting they will with this team. Much has been said that this team is not as good as last years team. Why? Gordon Hayword left. Okay, but they still have Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard who were more of the heart of last years team than Hayward was. Now the big key they didn't have a year ago as a key part is Andrew Smith. The center allowed Matt Howard to move back to forward and gives Butler a better defensive game plan. Brad Stevens will have his team ready to go they already knocked out two big headed monsters in Wisconsin out of the Big 10, Pittsburgh out of the Big East now it's time for Florida out of the SEC a league I still don't have respect for despite what Kentucky did last night. Kentucky beat this Florida team two times this year and this is a team that lost games at Central Florida and Jaxonville two in state games that they took lightly and lost. I'm not saying they will take Butler lightly, but again they will match up and think to themselves how can we lose to this team that is not as athletic or big as us and in the end I think Butler will be in the game. Even when they lost 4 games in a 5 game stretch in late January into early Febraury the games were all close and on the road including two games in OT. This team is experienced and their defense will get it done against a Florida team that really has had an easy trip getting here after nearly escaping vs. BYU team that to me is another over rated team. Fredette only shot 11 of 29 and they still forced OT. Look for Butler once again to be in this late in the game with a chance to win it.
|
03-25-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 |
Top |
96-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
03-25-11 |
Kentucky v. Ohio State -6 |
Top |
62-60 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
Ohio State -6 (4.4* POD) Ohio State has too much inside out presence for this young Kentucky team. I really thought Kentucky should have lost last week against West Virginia, but I believe they fall to the team that has dominated their opponents winning by an average of 30pts this post season.
|
03-24-11 |
Butler +4.5 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
61-54 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
Butler +5 (5.5* play); Butler +175 (1.5* bonus) This team just won't go away and I don't expect them to on Thursday. They get a good match up they are capable of winning. They already knocked off Pitt and now they play a very disciplined Wisconsin team that nearly lost to over rated Kansas State. There is a lot more experience on the side Butler that took them to the National Title game a year ago against Duke and I like Howard's size down low. Butler is your typical under dog and I will back them catching points they always seem to give you a close game and this will be nothing different.
|
03-23-11 |
Central Florida v. Creighton -4 |
Top |
64-82 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
5* pod
|
03-22-11 |
Santa Clara +2 v. San Francisco |
Top |
95-91 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
St. Clara +2.5 (4.4* play) Love St. Clara here today it's so hard to beat the same team three times in a season and I think Clara will be ready to beat San Fran when it counts. They got better in their second match up with them as they played better defense and did not shoot as many threes where in the first game they shot 37 of them. I look for Clara to play well but the negative turnover margin that they had in both games against ST. Clara will hurt them this time.
|
03-20-11 |
Virginia Commonwealth +9 v. Purdue |
Top |
94-76 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
4.4* POD
|
03-19-11 |
Kansas State v. Wisconsin -3.5 |
Top |
65-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin -3 -120 (5.5*pod) I really like Wisconsin's ability to play defense. We already have seen the Big Tens dominance early with Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St and Michigan dominating their opponents with just Michigan St losing in the first round. Big 12 is not as good and although we profited on Kansas St a lot this year and int he first round now it's time to cut ties. This team is just too inconsistent and the stat that sticks out like a sore thumb is this. Kansas St 14.5 to's a game, while they force a lot of turnovers they give them up a lot too. Wisconsin gives up just a 7.3 per game this year. They are going to have a +turnover margin meaning extra shots and possessions and that's huge in a game of this magnitude especially when Wisconsin gave up the 3rd least amount of points this season. 2nd stat is the FT% Kansas State is under 65% while Wisconsin is over 82%. Wisconsin was a team that could find them selves not being consistent too but right now they seem to be dialed in after beating a good Belmont team and I think they'll move on here in easy fashion. .
|
03-18-11 |
Marquette v. Xavier |
Top |
66-55 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
5.5* play
|
03-18-11 |
Villanova -1 v. George Mason |
Top |
57-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 56 m |
Show
|
Nova -1 (5.5* POD) Nova ended the season horribly and it has led to the #9 seed and a match up with George Mason. They are still small favorites in this game at a point and it's hard believe this team started the year 16-1. This team is very motivated for this tournament and they have the players to go a long way and pull some major upsets. The good thing is they will be an under dog the entire way so I think that will really push this team. After all they are a Sr. led team by Corey Strokes and Corey Fisher. The overall athleticism is going to give George Mason troubles.
|
03-17-11 |
Gonzaga v. St John's |
Top |
86-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
3.3* play
|
03-17-11 |
Missouri v. Cincinnati |
Top |
63-78 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
Cinci 5* play
|
03-17-11 |
Cal Santa Barbara +13 v. Florida |
Top |
51-79 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
4.4 * play
|
03-16-11 |
Nebraska v. Wichita State -5 |
Top |
49-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
Wichita -5 4.4* pod
|
03-15-11 |
Hofstra v. Evansville -2 |
Top |
70-77 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
5.5* play
|
03-13-11 |
Kentucky v. Florida -1.5 |
Top |
70-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
4.4* play
|
03-12-11 |
San Diego St -2.5 v. Brigham Young |
Top |
72-54 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
San Diego St -2 (5.5 Dime POD) SDS got beat twice to BYU yet they are favored? I think SDS has a lot to prove in this game and I look for them to shut down Jimmer Fredette who will likely not be able to repeat his performance from last night. Look for San Diego State to regain the hype they were getting before they lost to BYU.
|
03-11-11 |
USC -1 v. Arizona |
Top |
62-67 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
5.5* play
|
03-10-11 |
St John's v. Syracuse -140 |
Top |
73-79 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
Syracuse -140 5.5 Dime Play
|
03-09-11 |
Golden State Warriors -1.5 v. New Jersey Nets |
Top |
90-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
Warriors -1.5 (4.4 Dime POD) They have dominated the NBA Atlantic. Nets are not the same without a point guard. Williams will miss next two games there is no Devon Haris behind him. Warriors should get this game they are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games vs. teams below .400 win % and the Nets are 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 vs. teams with a losing straight up record. Take Golden State here tonight.
|
03-09-11 |
Central Florida -4.5 v. East Carolina |
Top |
60-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
UCF -4 (10**POD) UCF lost to East Carolina twice in the regular season and East Carolina beat both Memphis and Utep down the stretch yet they are 4 point dogs to East Carolina? This makes no sense, but I'll jump on Central Florida to redeem themselves here today. East Carolina played over their head all season long. This was their first winning season since 1997 and they are 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 as dogs .5-6.5. The tourney is at Utep and if you remember UCF won at UTEP by 6 points as +8 under dogs in the last month of the season so they should have confidence and redemption on their side today.
|
03-08-11 |
Dayton -2 v. Massachusetts |
Top |
78-50 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
5** play
|
03-08-11 |
Philadelphia 76ers +1 v. Indiana Pacers |
Top |
110-100 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
4.4** play
|
03-07-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 |
Top |
101-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
4.4* play
|
03-07-11 |
North Texas v. Western Kentucky |
Top |
81-62 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 57 m |
Show
|
4.4* play
|
03-06-11 |
Western Kentucky -2 v. Louisiana-Lafayette |
Top |
81-76 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 24 m |
Show
|
5* play
|
03-06-11 |
Los Angeles Lakers +3 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
99-83 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
03-05-11 |
Michigan State v. Michigan |
Top |
63-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
Mich St pk (5.5 Dimes); Mich St is on a major revenge spot here against Michigan who earlier in the year beat Michigan St in their own arena. I think Mich St is a team that can run the table and get into the tournament but it has to start here against a Michigan team that can light it up from outside. Michigan also doesn't play defense and are not a good rebounding team. IN conference play they are -5.1 rebounds and 47.4% defense. Mich St can rebound at +4.2 in conference play and that will be the difference in a close rivalry game.
|
03-03-11 |
Bradley -1 v. Drake |
Top |
63-48 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
Bradley -1 5.5* ma play
|
03-02-11 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Detroit Pistons -5 |
Top |
116-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
3.5* play
|
03-02-11 |
Colorado v. Iowa State -1.5 |
Top |
90-95 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
Iowa St -120 (4.5 Dime POD); Clemson +13 (2.5 Dime play) Iowa St played terribly vs. Colorado on the road earlier this year, but they are now favored by 1.5 points. Colorado is a bad road team just 3-8 on the road and I think Iowa St will be pumped up for their last game. they have been playing much better of late including a close win over Nebraska and loses to Missouri and Kansas St by a combined 7 points. Look for them to take this from the Buffaloes.
|
03-01-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -1 |
Top |
93-109 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
4.4** pod
|
03-01-11 |
Alabama +6 v. Florida |
Top |
51-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
5.5* pod
|
02-26-11 |
Iowa +11.5 v. Illinois |
Top |
68-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
Iowa +11.5 (4.4 Dime POD); Arizona St +11 (3.3 Dime Bonus) Iowa is getting better with each game. They have lost 3 of their last 4 by 3pts each and have started to show some progress. The first meeting with Illinois it was an ugly defensive performance in an 87-77 loss at home. This time I believe they come with revenge with Illinois off two emotional losses looking ahead to their Tuesday game at Purdue. I see Iowa with an opportunity to sneak into this game and Illinois is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record meaning they don't take these teams seriously. Iowa can play they did beat Michigan St by 20 just a few weeks ago.
|
02-25-11 |
Iona -3 v. St Peters |
Top |
73-59 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
Iona 5.5* play
|
02-24-11 |
Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls +3.5 |
Top |
89-93 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
4.4 ** POD
|
02-24-11 |
Marquette +5.5 v. Connecticut |
Top |
74-67 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
Marquette +5.5 4.4 ** pod
|
02-23-11 |
Notre Dame -4 v. Providence |
Top |
94-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
4.4** play
|
02-22-11 |
Louisville -4 v. Rutgers |
Top |
55-37 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
4.4 * top play
|
02-20-11 |
St Bonaventure +9.5 v. Richmond |
Top |
65-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
ST BON +9.5 4.4* PLAY
|
02-19-11 |
Missouri State v. Valparaiso -1 |
Top |
67-80 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
Valpo -1 (5.5 Dime POD) Valpo has been great at home 10-2 and holding opponents under 40% shooting they will host another solid team from another conference in Missouri State making this game important as VAlpo has been a top the Horizon league standings. I think Valpo continues their great shooting that has them in the top 20 in the nation in fg% at 47.7% they are also 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 following a loss so expect them to win this game at home where they have played well all year. This is a team oriented team that works together collectively so that is the type of team I like backing after a loss. Missouri ST is just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 as a road dog.
|
02-17-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls -1 |
Top |
99-109 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
02-17-11 |
Minnesota v. Penn State -2.5 |
Top |
63-66 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
|