Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-13-22 | Baylor v. West Virginia +3.5 | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
West Virginia +3.5 3.3% play 73% of action on Baylor here, but I don't think West Virginia is that bad and feel with the new offense they are only going to get better especially coming off extra time to prepare. They are alos playing this at home where they have a very good home field, and have gone 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at home, and have beaten BAylor 6 straight at home. The strength of schedule also favors West Virginia, which to me gives them more value, because they are looked at as an inferrior opponents, when in reality it's not as bad as it looks. Baylor's opponent YPP differential checks in at -0.025, while West Virginia is +0.875. That Texas loss, and that Kansas loss are certainly looking better now. Also their opponent success rate defense faced is 28.5 on average compared to Baylor who has faced an average SR defense of 74th. Some of their statistical profile looks like Oklahoma State, a team Baylor just got beat by. Especially defensively where they are weak vs. the pass, but very good agaisnt the run, which is a good match up for West Virginia. You want to be good against the run vs. Baylor set them up in 3rd and long, where their OL has had issues, and West Virginia has shown an ability to get pressure on QB and get home as they rank top 50 in sack rate. On the flip side Baylor's defensive weakness is vs. the pass. They are excellent vs. the run don't even bother running on them, but against hte pass they rank 83rd in epa, and West Virginia throws the ball more than they run as OC Graham Harrel was a former QB, and JT Daniels is fully capable of taking advantage. West Virginia also has a very big edge on special teams ranking 70th against a far tougher group of special team opponents while Baylor ranks 125th. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Raiders +7.5 -120 3% play |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +7 | 37-15 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Panthers +7 3% play |
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10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +2 | Top | 30-28 | Push | 0 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Browns +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
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10-08-22 | Iowa +3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 43 h 55 m | Show |
Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD Clear hangover spot here for Illinois in my opinion. Not only did they upset Wisconsin on the road they got their HC fired, and Brett Bielema who was fired by Wisconsin had to be very happy. Well, how do they come back home now as a favorite, a role they’re not really used to with a hungry Iowa team who will be giving it their all before they go on a bye. Iowa has all the ingredients of a dog we love. We have the better defense based on strength of schedule. Their offense which is catching a lot of shit has only faced an average ypp defense ranking 19.2, and again they face a top 10 defense right now, but a closer look at Illinois and their defense has faced an average opponent offense ranking 91st in ypp. I understand Iowa ranks 108th, but I have more confidence that they’ll figure it out and Illinois will start to digress. Honestly, both of these teams are very similar, run first offenses that take their time in pace. 3.5 points for Iowa when the total is 36 points seems like an awful lot. I also love the fact that Iowa has significant edges in categories most people don’t bother to take a look at. Special teams they rank 17th, and Illinois ranks 54th. Penalties, Iowa is top 25 in fewest penalties, while Illinois ranks 106th. Finally, turnovers which is arguably the most important thing to look at when you handicap a game. Turnovers are generally luck, but Iowa seems to have a tendency year in and year out to cause turnovers. They rank 21st in % of opponent’s possessions ending in TO’s, while Illinois ranks 111th on offense turning the ball over 17% of their offensive possessions. Their QB is Tommy Devito who is typically good for 1 or 2 against top defense. They actually played a clean game at Wisconsin, but don’t expect it to happen again here, and their star RB Chase Brown already has 2 fumbles. One last note, Kirk Ferentz on the road where the spread is single digits, is a cash maker as he has gone 39-24 ATS. |
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10-08-22 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +17.5 | 52-28 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 21 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt +17 2.2% play Both of these teams are run first teams and this should keep the clock ticking making this a very challenging spread for Ole Miss to cover. Ole Miss does like to play fast, but Vanderbilt counters that by being the 111th paced team in the country. Vanderbilt actually is the best running team that Ole mIss has faced and ran for over 200 yards a season ago. I think the bye week helps them here even more as they try to pull the upset over a top 10 team while Ole Miss was extremely fortunate to beat Kentucky at home as a 7 point favorite. On paper Ole Miss run defense has been dominant ranking 26th, but a closer look and they have faced an average rushing ypc of 111th. Vanderbilt comes in here ranking 55th, and as I mentioned should have some success running the ball. Ole Miss last year really struggled running the ball on the road -2ypc, and that is the strength of the Vanderbilt defense. I think we see a close game, and Ole Miss has shown they are willing to take the foot off the break late in games. |
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10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 42 m | Show | |
Texas Tech +9 3.3% play There is a huge discrepancy in strength of schedule here as Oklahoma State has faced an average oppy pp differential of -0.46, and Texas Tech has faced +0.675. Tech has proven they can be competitive in these games and have been tested this season. Oklahoma State has not been tested and are already showing some huge signs of weaknesses as their defense ranks 100th in ypp, and that comes against an average 77th ranked offense. Texas Tech is a pass first team, and that’s the weakness of this Oklahoma State team that ranks 111th in pass defense, 124th in epa pass defense. Texas Tech if you can believe it is actually the better defense. They rank 98th in ypp defense, but it has come against an average 56th ranked offense. Oklahoma State also in a major let down spot after avenging their loss against Baylor in the Big 12 Title game and they have top 20 ranked TCU on deck Both of these teams like to play fast and a back door is definitely not out of the question as Donnovan Smith should pass for over 300 yards. |
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10-08-22 | Michigan v. Indiana +22.5 | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 35 h 8 m | Show | |
Indiana +22.5 2.2% play This is a sandwich spot for Michigan after their first road game at Iowa they stay on the road to face Indiana, and have Penn State next. I think Indiana can give them enough issues here as Tom Allen is a good football coach, and knows how to stop a running game. Michigan their last two visits in 2019 and 2020 came up with 87 yards and 13 rushing yards. We really don’t know much about Michigan at this point. They have faced a very weak schedule with an opponent ypp diff of +1.27 compared to Indiana who has faced a -1.12, which is a massive difference. To put things in perspective the average YPP differential of all 131 teams is -0.03 yards per play. Their wins over Maryland and Iowa don’t exactly impress me, and Indiana is quite comparable to Iowa. Good defense, and a shitty offense. At least Indiana can protect their QB, and at least their QB can throw the ball. Yet we have a spread at 22. 5compared to 10.5 against Iowa. Michigan did cover, but Iowa had a couple opportunities late to cover the spread. Indiana likes to run fast, which could bite them here, but I think it will give them more of an advantage. Michigan likes to sub players in and out, and with Indiana the #1 team as far as pace goes I think Indiana will be able to move the ball and score or get points in the 4th quarter that Iowa could not do. |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 7 m | Show | |
LSU +3 2.2% play We are getting the better defense at home catching points. I think we are getting value here when you factor in LSU barely got by Auburn and had to over come 17-0 defecit, but that was their first road game, and Kelly pulled Jayden Daniels after an injury, but stated that he would have stayed in the game if they were losing. They were also without LG Grrett Dellinger and both returning this week. Daniels has struggled at times this year, but when we look at the fact that he has faced defense ranked on average 46th in ypp defense and now he’ll face a Tennessee defense that ranks 97th in epa pass defense, I think LSU should be able to exploit the secondary of Tennessee especially at home. LSU OL has struggled at times, but they have faced an average opponent sack % ranking 36th, and here they’ll face Tennessee who ranks 85th in sack %. Daniels should get a little more time, and I also think sometimes it helps when you are pulled out of a game and you get to watch. I expect Daniels to have a very big game. Anthony Richards, another mobile spread zone offense QB who couldn’t pass the ball at all threw for 400+ yards against this Tennessee secondary. This line is giving Tennessee far too much credit, off the bye, and Alabama on deck. Tennessee’s offense has been great and creates a lot of buzz, but they are a run first team and haven’t faced any top defenses. On average they have faced 86.5 ranked ypp defense, and their rushing attack has faced 98th average ypc defense. LSU ranks 25th in ypp, and they rank 13th at stopping the run. You can’t overlook the fact that Hendon Hooker could be without his top target Cedric Tillman who had ankle surgery in the bye week. If he plays I don’t know how effective he will be. Tennessee last year faced 4 top 50 rushing defense and went 1-3 in those games with their lone win being a 3 point victory at Kentucky. |
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10-08-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma +9.5 | 49-0 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 7 m | Show | |
Oklahoma +9.5 3.3% play I’m a believer that injuries in the market are typically over rated especially at the QB situation, and we have a great spot here as Dillon Gabriel likely out with the concussion and Texas likely getting their 5* QB Quin Ewers back. This to me is just a crazy line move and when you factor in Oklahoma over the last 10 years have been a favorite in every game by an average of 10.15 points. Now Texas has covered that spread in 7 of those games, but now they’re the favorite, and I don’t think it’s warranted on a neutral field in a rivalry game. I expect the rest of the Oklahoma team to step up here, and I still think they will have success running the ball they rank 5th in epa run offense compared to Texas who ranks 64th. Their run defense has not been great, but they just faced two top 10 rushing attacks. While Texas is great at running the ball they still rank 64th in epa run offense, and I think Oklahoma could force some turnovers into a relatively unknown Quinn Ewers. I think we are getting Oklahoma in a great spot off back to back losses. I would still argue that Oklahoma has the better defense. I also think Texas is still getting far too much credit for their close loss against Alabama. |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3 | 17-14 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Nevada -3 -120 3% play I would call this one the Jay Norvell Bowl, as Jay Norvell did not get fired, but opted to leave for Colorado State for more $, and better facilities. He took players with him and 10 freshman recruits who verbally committed to Nevada. Nevada’s new HC Ken Wilson spoke about it and I think this game certainly means something to the players that remain, and with a bye week, and then hosting this game it should be advantage Nevada in my opinion. Colorado State is also dealing with a ton of injuries, and will likely be starting a true freshman on the road here as their starting QB has a shoulder injury. They’ve got injuries on the left side of their offensive line, and while those guys are probably it’s doubtful they make it through the game. They rank 131st in protecting the QB, which is led to a ton of turnovers, and Nevada at home can get to the QB they rank 50th in sack %, and Nevada ranks 4th in forcing turnovers. On top of that Nevada also has the better special teams unit ranking 47th to Colorado State’s 127th ranking. Nevada at home with the better 3rd down offense, special teams, better at limiting and forcing turnovers, and players who are hungry for revenge on their old coach and maybe the players who verbally committed and left for Colorado State. |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +9.5 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Patriots +9.5 2.2 %play |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Lions | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Seahawks +3.5 3.3 %play |
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10-02-22 | Vikings v. Saints +3.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Saints +3.5 2.2% play |
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10-01-22 | Virginia +2.5 v. Duke | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Virginia +3 -120 3.5% play The story of Virginia is their offense despite returning Brennan Armstrong and his top 3 WR they have really struggled ranking 101st in YPP, 107th in success rate. The reason being their offensive line had to be completely replaced, and their OC left for Syracuse, and they have made many mistakes along the way due to the fact that Armstrong has faced 2nd most pressure in college football at 71, but here they have an extra day of rest and going up against a poor defense in Duke. Duke 107th in sack %, run 4-2-5, and hardly ever blitz, which is a favorable match up for this Virginia offense that is also getting Billy Kemp back this week for another weapon for Armstrong as they go up against Dukes’s 114th ranked epa pass defense. Compare that against Syracuse 35th, and Illinois 2nd , Virginia’s other opponents, and I think Virginia finds some success here. Virginia’s defense has been a pleasant surprise ranking 33rd in ypp, and 12th in success rate. They’ve been great at getting off the field on third down, and forcing TO’s, while Duke’s offense has been great it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 76th. This is a step up in competition as Virginia ranks 3rd in sack %. Last week was a tough spot for Virginia on a short week and they nearly came all the way back to beat Syracuse. This week they’ll have an extra day of prep and as of right now the weather will not play a role. Virginia also has a significant edge on special teams ranking 47th in overall efficiency compared to Duke’s 119th ranking. |
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10-01-22 | LSU v. Auburn +8.5 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Auburn +8.5 2.2% play I understand the near/lucky loss to Missouri at home in OT looks really bad, and a lot of people are calling for Bryan Harsin’s head, but this team is 3-1 and have a night game against LSU that I feel should be competitive. Auburn has to go with their backup QB Robby Ashford, but I would argue he’s an upgrade over the statue of TJ Finley. Ashford can at least be mobile to go along with Tank Bigsby. It won’t be easy, but it’s not like Auburn’s offense has struggled against bad defenses. All 3 of their opponents are inside the top 30 in ypp defense. In fact Auburn’s opponents average YPP differential is +1.2, while LSU’s is -0.03. This is LSU’s first road game, and while their run defense, which is the key here is 14th, they have done it against an average opponent ypc of 84th, and they’ve done it all at home. LSU could be looking ahead to Tennessee or just reading the clippings that Auburn is no good, and I’m not saying Auburn is a good team, but to be an 8 point dog is a buy low spot here. LSU’s offensive line should not be taken on the road here to cover over a TD. They rank 111th in sack % and Daniels may not even stay healthy for this game. Auburn still plays hard on defense and the DL ranks 33rd in sack %, and again this is at home, at night. If Auburn gets blown out then Harsin is probably getting fired, but I think the more likely scenario is Auburn stays in this game. 71% of the action on LSU here, and it’s just not that easy. Also the total dropped from 50 down to 44.5 in spots yet we have not seen any type of correction on the spread making this +8 even more valuable. |
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10-01-22 | Troy +5.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Troy +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Western Kentucky looks like it has not missed a beat, but look at the strength of schedule here as they have faced an opponent ypp differential of -2.8ypp. To put it simply the average defense ypp is 105th, and average ypp offense is 116. This is a team that had to replace their QB, OC, top WR, and only returned 11 starters. There are going to be some growing pains and I think it shows up here against a very tough Troy team that already has proven they can win on the road as was the case at App State where it took a miracle on game day for them to lose. Troy matches up well here, because of the defensive line, which is the best in the Sun Belt. They ranked 3rd in sack %, but unlike Western Kentucky, Troy has faced a very tough schedule to start with road games at Ole Miss and App State, and then a very impressive home win last week against Marshall. They go back on the road to face Western Kentucky, and I think they’ll be in position to win this game. Western Kentucky’s offense despite facing poor defenses have only converted 34.48% of their plays. Western Kentucky relying heavily on big plays. They were #1 in 20+ yard plays a season ago. Troy was 33rd allowing 20+ plays last season and is top 20 this season despite playing Western Kentucky has to be feeling good about themselves right now, but they have a monster game on deck. They’ll face UTSA the team they lost to twice last year including the C-USA Championship. Troy coming from the Sun Belt is the clear better conference and Western Kentucky just 2-6 ATS their last 8 vs. Sun Belt. |
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10-01-22 | California +4 v. Washington State | 9-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
California+4 2.2% play These two teams are pretty evenly matched and Cal is tested on the road already by their tough game at Notre Dame. Cal is +0.4 ypp differential on the season vs. an average opponent -0.2, while Washingto State is +0.2 vs. a -0.56 so very similar, but better #’s against tougher competition for Cal. I think Wash State is maybe getting too much credit for their win at Wisconsin, and their close game against Oregon last week. We had Wash State +7 last week, and despite them blowing a lead, and even needing a hail mary of sorts to cover they were out gained by 196 yards to Oregon. Cal’s defense and HC Justin Wilcox should have their team ready and unless they don’t tackle well should hold this offense that likes to make quick passes in check. They lost last year’s meeting, cut I’m expecting a low scoring close battle, and Wilcox is 14-4 ATS as a road dog at Cal. Nobody wants any part of Cal with 68% of the action on Wash State. |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M +4.5 v. Mississippi State | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +4.5 3.3% play I think these two teams are pretty even, but we have a spread over 4 and yet 68% of the bets are on Miss State here. The Aggies DC Durkin has faced Mike Leach each of the last two seasons, and while they gave up a ton of points they held them to 24 and 21 points as Ole Miss won both of those games. The Aggies lost last year’s game in this sandwich spot 22-26, but held Miss State to 3-10 on third down. That’s exactly what Durkin’s defense did against Miss State each of the last two years holding them to 7-28 on third downs, and holding them to Field goals instead of TD’s. Miss State’s offensive line is a bit banged up and could have some issues with the talented A&M defensive front that could create some pressure here. They are very young, but can only get better as the season goes on. I think Miss State will move the ball, but Will Rogers and this offense rank 123rd in % of possessions ending in a TO add in the struggles in the red zone vs. Durkin’s defense and I think A&M +4.5 is very attractive. A&M’s offense has shown some light since putting in Max Johnson, they can only continue to get better despite losing Smith at WR for the season, Achane looks like a guy that can take over a game. Miss State’s defense that runs the 3-3-5 is under sized, and I think A&M will have more success in this game. A&M has a significant edge on special teams according to footballoutsiders, ranking 4th compared to Miss State 101st ranking. They have revenge as they lost this game at home a season ago 26-22. This is also a very large move on the spread from last year as Miss State +7 now -4.5 at home, that would say that A&M would be only a 1.5 point favorite at home this year. That’s a 5.5 point move in favor of Miss State based off of what? The loss the Aggies had against App State? A&M was also a 4.5 point road favorite just 2 years ago, a move of 9 points. Aggies had #1 recruiting class, and top 10 each of the last 3 years, while Miss State cracked top 25 1x. What has changed? |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State -3 v. Kansas | 11-14 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 18 m | Show | |
Iowa State -3 3.3% play Iowa State is off a very tough loss last week at home to a very good Baylor team. Iowa State now goes on the road to face a 4-0 SU & ATS Kansas team under Lance Leipold that’s getting a lot of hype, but probably too much at this point, which is one reason we are going to back Iowa State here with a short #. This line was just -34 Iowa State a season ago, and they covered by 18 points. These are similar staffs from the sense that Lance Leipold has worked his way up from the D3 ranks just like Matt Campbell, but Iowa State’s program is just a few years ahead. This wont’ be as easy as last year’s cover, but I definitely think we have value on Iowa State here off a loss, Matt Campbell is 19-9-1 ATS with his time at Iowa State. Kansas offense has clicked but they have yet to face a top 70 ypp defense, and Iowa State ranks 7th. Iowa State’s offense has looked decent, but they still have faced a couple of top 25 ypp defense in Iowa and Baylor, which have deflated their #’s. I think despite losing some veteran guys from last year’s team this offense is still going to score points this year and this is a great opportunity to do so against a defense that ranks 106th in epa run defense, and 111th in epa pass defense. Kansas was down 14 points against West Virginia and Houston, and if that happens again here Iowa State has the team that won’t allow Kansas back into the game. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan State +8 v. Maryland | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Michigan St +7.5 1.65% / Mich St +250 0.5% |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +10.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 37 m | Show | |
Iowa +10.5 2.2% play In 2016 Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbough faced off for the first time @ Iowa, the only meeting in Iowa, and Iowa was +24 dog and won outright 14-13. In 2019 they faced off again and Michigan was a 4 point home favorite and won 10-3, and then in the Big Ten Championship last year Michigan an 11.5 point favorite won 42-3. This line suggests that Iowa is worse, and Michigan is better and I don’t think I agree with that. Michigan has faced a far worse schedule with their opponent ypp differential -1.65 on the season and that’s with playing Maryland who is +2. Kirk Ferentz has been playing that Big Ten Championship game with his team all week. It was a 14-3 half time score, and Michigan’s 2 TD’s came on a trick 75 yard TD pass, and a 67 yard run. Iowa back at home where they have been very good has some value here. Both teams are going up against elite defenses that rank top 25. Over the past 4 seasons Iowa just 7-7 vs. top 25 defenses, but 4 of those 7 losses came by a TD or less. While Michigan is just 7-8 vs. top 25 defenses over the last 4 seasons, after a 3-1 season last year. I think last year was a bit of an outlier for Jim Harbough and this team. They will have a young inexperienced JJ McCarthy making his first road start here, and Michigan’s offensive line thus far ranks 128th in sack % allowed, while Iowa has 12 sacks already. I think there is an opportunity for Iowa to get some points on defense, and their special teams should really be able to help them in the field position game. The only reason they got killed last year was they could not stop the running game. They are far better stopping the run at home, and this should be a tight game. |
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10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show | |
Kentucky +7 2.2% play This is the role I love to back Mark Stoops in. It is a little unusual to see a top 10 ranked team a TD dog on the road against a team that is ranked lower, and that would cause me some pause, but looking into this game I could not go any other way. I think Kentucky is going to force Ole Miss to rely on Jaxson Dart to win them this game, and I don’t know that he can. Ole Miss also has some injury concerns at RB and at C that could have an impact here. Meanwhile, I think Kentucky’s offense is going to get a huge boost from Chris Rodriguez returning. They have really struggled to run the ball, but despite that Will Levis has been great, and it has opened up the offense, but I really see them getting back to the run game against Ole Miss defense which is designed to stop the pass not the run, which is why they rank 50th in epa run defense despite facing an overage opponent ranking 110th in epa run offense. Kentucky could have some issues pass blocking, but Chris Rodriguez should also help in that aspect, and Kentucky back in that role as a dog, playing with a chip on their shoulder. |
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09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Washington -2.5 -120 2.5% play I like the Huskies here, as Kalen Deboer seems like the real deal as a Head Coach and he took his Fresno State to the Rose Bowl just last year and they upset UCLA 40-37 as an 11 point dog and UCLA has 2 weeks to prepare. His team is getting much more respect this year and I expec to see some more back and forth but I like Deboer to get the win when you consider Fresno won that game despite turning the ball over 3x. Michael Penix has been amazing, and UCLA over the last 3 years against a top 50 passing offense is just 3-6. UCLA also 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 vs. a team with winnign record. UCLA's offense is going to be a challenge, but 58% of the offense travels through 2 guys - DTR and Charbonet. I just don't see how you can back UCLA here when their secondary struggled with Colorado's passing attack, and nearly got upset at home by South Alabama. UCLA has no home field advantage, and Deboer's offense had 550+ yards on this UCLA defense a year ago. Now Penix and a trio of receivers should be able to get that here. |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
UTSA -4 2.2% PLAY Middle Tennessee was the 6th team to pull an outright upset as 18+ underdog last week as they shocked Miami for their biggest win in program history. Those teas are 0-5 ATS the next week and they aren't just not covering spreads they are not doing so by double digits. I'm not surprised by Miami after that loss at Texas AM when their coach decided to kick field goals the entire team showing no confidence in his team, and the players may have already quit on Cristabal. MTSU is not a good team in my opinion this is the same team that put up 120 yards on James Madison. UTSA is sort of flying under the radar here at 2-2, but they've played by far the tougher schedule wiht thier opponent YPP differential at +0.83 compared to MTSU who is -0.36. Houston, Army, Texas is not an easy schedule. Frank Harris should be able to move the ball here, and UTSA's defense has struggled 93rd in YPP, but they've faced an average opponent ypp offense ranked 33rd. Here they go up against MTSU who ranks 96th, and ranks 122nd in epa run offense, and 73rd in epa pass defense and that comes against an average opponent ranking 90th in epa pass defense. Major let down spot here for MTSU on a short week. UTSA roles big and their defense shows some improvement. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Bengals -3.5 2.2 %play |
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09-25-22 | Packers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show |
Packers +1 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
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09-25-22 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Vikings -2 2.2% play |
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09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Washington +7 -125 buy 1/2 3.5% play |
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09-24-22 | Kansas State +14 v. Oklahoma | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
Kansas State +14 1% play |
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09-24-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Purdue -16.5 | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
Purdue -16.5 2.2% play Purdue was my POD last week at Syracuse, and we clearly were on the right side as Purdue outgained the Orange 485-306, and had an 80% post game win expectancy, but unfortunately we lost on a 30 yard pass play as Purdue played zero coverage for some odd reason. I think Purdue bounces back against a poorly coached FAU team. FAU is known for running it up against bad teams, and struggling against good teams, particularly against solid defenses. FAU agaisnt a top 60 ypp defense under Taggart as their head coach has gone 2-9 and have averaged only 13.4 ppg. Purdue is 53rd and 36th vs. the run, and I don’t see this FAU passing offense being able to take advantage of some of Purdue’s weaknesses in the secondary especially on the road. On the flip side Purdue’s offense is going up agaisnt FAU’s 104th ranked defense, which I s111th vs. the pass. All in all it’s just a very bad match up for FAU, and Purdue is clearly hungry for a win after starting 1-2. I think we are getting a very nice number from 20 down to 16.5 because of Aidan O’connel is questionable. O’Connel a realtively big name, but not worth this many points to the spread, and he may still start. If he doesn’t then I see this team rallying for a big blowout win. Austin Burton, the UCLA transfer is fully capable of running this offense and will give Purdue offense more in the running game. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
Arkansas +2 5.5% NCAAF POD Just off the top I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas following their near upset to Missouri State, but they were resting a lot of guys for this upcoming game at Cowboys Stadium, but also Bobby Petrino returned as Missouri State’s head coach so thought there was max motivation for them in that game. Max Johnson took over at QB for A&M after the loss to App State and it was supposed to spark the offense, but despite their 17-9 win it did not spark the offense as Johnson was just 10-20 for 140 yards. It got us a win and a cover, but I felt like we were very fortunate to cover with A&M last week. Arkansas and Barry Odom prepared for Max Johnson last year when he was at LSU, which led to him being benched in the game so I think that helps here, and I don’t think A&M’s offense is able to take advantage of the clear weakness of Arkansas defense, which is their secondary. A&M ranks 113th in epa pass offense and that has come against some suspect passing defense ranked 77th on average in epa pass defense. A&M needs to run the ball to win games, and Arkansas thus far has been a rock against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, and they have been able to get to the QB ranking #1 in sacks. A&M’s defense has been great and that will be a challenge for Arkansas, but I like Arkansas offensive line here that is very experienced and grading out as a top 5 unit overall. Aggies are talented with 5 star guys across the board, but they have just two upper classmen on their 3 deep on the DL and 8 of the 12 are freshman. Texas A&M also has struggled on defense when they have had to face a team that can beat you throwing the ball and passing the ball, and Arkansas ranks top 30 in both categories, but since Jimbo Fisher has come aboard they are just 1-9 vs. teams who are top 50 in rushing ypc and QB rating. At this point are we really sure Jimbo is a good football coach worth all that money? A&M also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 in September. |
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09-24-22 | Oregon v. Washington State +7 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Washington State +7 2.2% play Good Bo, bad Bo. We are fading bad Bo Nix on the road where he has 6-11 record 16TD/16INT. Last week we backed Oregon as a small favorite and they upset BYU who was ranked and BO moved to 16-4 at home 30TD/2INT. This is a game on the road at Washington ST, not an easy place to play, and Washington State’s defense should keep this one close. They return 8 startesr with 4+ years of experience, and I can’t see this Oregon team getting separation against a decent team on the road. Washington State upset Wisconsin in week 2 and had an easy game last week against Colorado State which gave them an opportunity to prepare for this game against Oregon. |
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09-24-22 | Florida +10.5 v. Tennessee | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 40 h 38 m | Show | |
Florida +10.5 2.2% play Tennessee has never been a favorite by more than 7 points agaisnt Florida, and this surely puts a lot of pressure on this Tennessee team that I still have a lot of questions about. This is a nice spot to back the Gators after back to back strugles, and I think we are at least getting a field goal of value here for Florida’s struggles vs. South Florida last week, which was the ultimate flat spot as they opened the season agaisnt two top 25 teams, and had Tennessee on deck. However, I trust Billy Napier, as he’s 11-3-1 ATS as a dog, 8-3-1 ATS on the road, and I still think Florida has an advantage in this game, and it’s their running game. Tennessee has struggled mightly vs. mobile QB’s,a dn despite ranking 19th in the young season they have played an average opponent ranking 96th in rushing ypc, and here they’ll face Florida who ranks 4th, and 12th in epa rush offense. Tennessee to mobile QB’s last year went 1-2 giving up 195 yards to Matt Corral, 47 and 2 TD to Will Levis in a 3 point win, and 144 to Florida’s Emory Jones. I look for Anthony Richardson to shine, but he doesn’t have to do it himself Montrell Johnson, and Trevor Etiene have looked the part early, and I think Florida will be able to run the ball here, which should keep this game close. Tennessee’s offense has been great, but this is an obvious step up in competition, and while they are a run first team they do have to go against a good pass defense in Florida and I expect Florida to come up with some stops. This is just too big of a line move and too much value here on Florida for me to pass up given their dominance in this series, and Tennessee’s struggles stopping mobile QB’s. |
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09-24-22 | Notre Dame +2 v. North Carolina | 45-32 | Win | 100 | 40 h 37 m | Show | |
Notre Dame +2 3.3% play Buy low spot here for Notre Dame going up against a 3-0 North Carolina team, and 70% of the tickets are on North Carolina, but I’m not buying the hype. North Carolina’s win against App State certainly looks better, and their nearl loss against Georgia State looks worse, but the team coming off a bye is not a positive when you start 3-0. The bye typically helps, but it has not helped this team under Mack Brown as they have had the bye the last two years against Notre Dame and they lost both games by double digits. They also opened up last season and lost to Virginia Tech as a favorite, and lsot their bowl game to South Carolina by 17 points. In 2019 they also lost both of their games with extra rest losing to Virginia Tech and Pitt. Getting away from home should be a good thing for the Irish, and I know the win against Cal is not something that has given many confidence, but the offensive line looked great in the second half and Drew Pyne looked better once he settled in, and I actually think Pyne is an upgrade at QB over the injured Tyler Buchner. This is a great opportunity for Notre Dame who ranks 100th in YPP offense, but has gone up against an average 28th ranked ypp defense. Here they face UNC who ranks 111th in ypp defense, and 109th in ypc allowed, which will be a key as Notre Dame needs to establish the run on the road. North Carolina is also 115th in epa pass defense so there will be opportunities for Pyne to open up the run game by passing on first down, which I think we will see a bit of on Saturday. Notre Dame’s defense is also the best unit North Carolina will face. North Carolina’s offense has looked elite for sure ranking 10th in ypp, but it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 92nd. Drake Maye has been excellent at QB, but he’s faced an average opponent QB defense of 99th. The offensive line also still has issues as they gave up 3 sacks to Georgia State, and 3 sacks to App State. I think Notre Dame’s defensive line here will give them issues. Notre Dame’s defense overall ranks 41st in ypp allowed, and that has come agaisnt a tough schedule that featured Ohio State yet they rank 29th in epa pass defense. Notre Dame’s opponent ypp differential is +1.7 while North Carolina’s opponent ypp differential is -0.25 ypp, which is a huge difference. |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State +3 | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 37 m | Show | |
Michigan State +3 3.3% play This is an over reaction in my opinion, this line opened Michigan State -3.5, and is now at +3, and I understand there are some inuries on Michigan State side, but they are questionable for the game. This is a great opportunity for Michigan State to bounce back at home. I love that Mel Tucker is taking accountability for the dreadful coaching last week, which we benefited from as we had Washington -3 in that game, but the secondary which continues to be an issue should not be the problem this week as Minnesota runs the ball 70% of the time. Michigan State’s defensive strength is their run defense as they rank top 20 this year in ypc and epa, and last year they were top 20 as well. Minnesota under Fleck has always been a run first offense and when facing a top 50 run defense they are just 6-9 since 2018, and 2 of those wins came against Fresno State. Minnesota’s #’s look great, but they have come against on average 104th ranked opponent ypp defense, and 113th opponent ranked offense + an FCS opponent. This is a huge step up for Minnesota who is without their best down the field play maker in Chris Autman-Bell lost for the season. Michigan State has injury concerns as well, but I’m banking on at least 1 or 2 of those guys coming back this week, and if they don’t I still feel good with how QB payton Thorne played in the second half on the road without his top target he looked like a difference maker. Michigan State is the more balanced team they are significantly better on special teams ranking 21st to Minnesota’s 106th ranking, and they are better at limiting the turnovers ranking 1st in percentage of drives ending in a TO. I think this is just a favorable match up for Sparty here, and they had a top 50 offense last year, so far Sparty ranks 32nd in ypp albeit against bad competition, but we saw them move the ball well last week in the second half vs. Washington without a running game. Minnesota just 7-8 the last 4 seasons vs. a top 50 ypp offense. I think Mel Tucker’s players really like him and they’ll fight for him in this hoem game as a dog. |
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09-24-22 | TCU -2 v. SMU | 42-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
TCU -2 2.2% PLAY Sonny Dykes returns to face his old team here, and is off a bye, which I think gives a huge edge to TCU. SMU meanwhile had to go up to play Maryland last week in a 4 quarter battle and travel all the way back home to play their old coach. I like the staff that Dykes brought with him to TCU and the hire of DC Joe Gillespie from Tulsa, a Broyles semifinalist twice, and beat SMU each of the last two years so there is plenty of familiarity here for TCU agaisnt SMU, but not as much for SMU other than the players knowing the scheme. SMU has some glarring red flags to start the season starting with their run defense, which has allowed 200+ yards in each game and rank111th in ypc allowing. Their offense ranks 90th in % of possessions ending in a TO , while TCU ranks 1st in that category. TCU’s offense will be down their starting QB, but many could argue Max Duggan has more experience as the started and really is not a downgrade from Chandler Morris. TCU has lost this game each of the last two times, but Sonny Dykes was on the other sideline. I think the bye week in combination with the familiarity of the players, and SMU’S weakness vs. the run, and TCU’s strenght runnign the ball will give TCU the win. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Browns -4 2.2% play |
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09-19-22 | Titans +10 v. Bills | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Titans +10 2.2% play |
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09-18-22 | Cardinals +6 v. Raiders | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Cardinals +6 2.2% play |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Dolphins +3.5 1.1% Free Play This is too many points for two even teams. I'm also doubting the Ravens offensive line and Lamar is going to have to make passes in this game against man coverage, which is something he was unable to do against the Dolphins last year, and I don't see the weapons for him to make them this year. Don't miss out on my NFL MAX POD 65.8% since 2015! |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Jets + 7 buy 1/2 3% play |
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09-18-22 | Panthers +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Panthers +2.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -6.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 55 m | Show | |
Texas A&M -6.5 2.2% play A&M getting some guys back on defense here, and looks like they will be getting their vocal leader Bryce Foster back at Center, which should make a huge advantage for this A&M offense that has not looked great to be nice, but that’s exactly the time I want to back a team. This point spread was 9 a week ahead and we are getting 2.5 points of value based on last week’s results. I honestly don’t know what Miami has really done to impress anyone thus far or warrant them to jump up to #13 in the AP poll. I’m going to sell high on Miami, who is breaking in an entirely new offense and thus far Van Dyke hype has not lived up and he’s really struggling in the new offense. Van Dyke really benefited last year form playing some bad defenses, and the best defense he faced was NC State who was down 5 starters. I saw him late on throws against Southern Miss and was lucky on a few occasions not to turn the ball over and Southern Miss was not even getting pressure on him. Now he has to go on the road and face this talented defensive line in a must win game for A&M at night at Kyle Field. I get why the public is backing Miami 65% of the action, but there is a reason the team that’s ranked lower is still nearly a TD favorite in this one. I think last week was a nice wake up call for this Aggies team, and they come with a great effort with some key guys returning to the lineup. |
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09-17-22 | Michigan State v. Washington -3 | 28-39 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show | |
Washington -3 3.3% play Michigan State probably the most popular dog this week, and I think it’s going to be a very tough game for them. Not only are they going very far west something they are not used to doing – 0-5 overall in the history of their program, but they are playing much improved Washington team that brought in Kalen Deboer as the HC, previously Fresno, and OC at Indiana, and he brings Indiana QB transfer Michael Penix who has looked completely healthy. This is a great match up for Washington, because Michigan State’s defensive weakness is the secondary, and a Deboer offense wants to throw, the strength of their offensive line is in pass protection and they have a capable QB that had his best season hen Deboer was his OC. Washington also top 25 recruiting classes in 4 of their past 5 years while Michigan State not bringing in as much talent. I love what Mel Tucker has been doing, and 11-2 last year are signs of great things to come, but I believe they over achieved. They have one WR off the the NFL, Kenneth Walker their do all RB off to the NFL, and I don’t know Payton Thorne is good. I know he did well last year and 15 TD and 5 INT on the road last year, but he only faced 1 team with a top 50 pass defense and they lost. He’s looked very sketchy so far this season vs. Akron he had 0 passing TD and 2 INT, and could be without his top WR target Jaylen Reed. He’s probable, but probably not 100%. |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -3.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 26 m | Show | |
Oregon -3.5 2.2% play Horrible spot for BYU here after a double OT win at home against a ranked Baylor team, a game that could have gone either way. I think we are buying low on Oregon after they lost to Georgia 49-3 to open the season now hosting #12 BYU and they’re favorites. BYU likely without their top two WR again making this game even more desirable with Oregon, a defense that is still learning Dan Lannings system, but can only improve. BYU’s offense led by QB Jaren Hall struggles under pressure and have struggled running the ball. I like Oregon’s edge here to at home to force Hall into some turnovers, which is why I like Oregon to cover this #. Bo Nix for all the criticism he gets has been a monster at home over his career 28 TD’s and only 2 INT’s and +2 yards per pass attempt. I think Nix has a mistake free game and Oregon gets a big win for Lanning against a top 25 opponent. |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 1 m | Show | |
Nebraska +11 3.3% PLAY I think we get at least a one game bump from Nebraska players, fans following the firing of Scott Frost. They will welcome in Oklahoma for the old rivalry. This was a 7 point game in Norman last year, which is nothing new with Nebraska as each of their last 13 losses have come by single digits. I like the value we are getting here, and the fact that there is stability and leadership following Frost’s departure. Mickey Joseph takes over as interim head coach and is a long time family friend of QB Casey Thompson who is an extremely mature and experienced QB capable of leading the team after a change like this. Mark Whipple also remains as the OC, and has plenty of experience. Oklahoma has a new defensive minded coaching staff led by Venebles who brought in UCF OC Lebby and QB Gabriel. However, it has not been the Lincoln Riley offense as the offensive line has really struggled so much that they gave up 3 sacks to Kent State, and were trailing 3-0 with a minute to go in the half. Kent State year in and year out has some of the worst defenses ranking outside the top 100 so there is obvious regression on this side of the ball. This will be Oklahoma’s first road trip under Venables and I think Nebraska will show up here to make a statement. 15mph winds expected, which also typically leads to closer games. |
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09-17-22 | Georgia v. South Carolina +25.5 | 48-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
South Carolina +24.5 2.2% play Huge recruiting weekend for South Carolina and the atmosphere should be great hosting the #1 team in the nation. I said it last week. This is a team I want to back. They don’t give up on their coach Shane Beamer. This was a 13-40 game at Georgia last year as South Carolina covered the 31 point spread. This spread is essentially saying these teams are the same as last year and I could not disagree more. After watching the Arkansas game it is clear that South Carolina is able to move the ball through the air and have some capable weapons, but it remains a run first team, which helps us when we are trying to cover 24 point spread. The team is also a lot deeper, and dealing with some key injuries, but that is in this number, and they are in a better position to handle those than they were a year ago. Next man up. Georgia also runs a different offense than Arkansas, and South Carolina is at home where they played far better on defense a year ago. Georgia defense at some point will show that they have taken a step back on defense and I think it shows up in their first road game. We are selling high on Georgia here as 70% of the tickets are on Georgia. Everyone saw the shutout of Oregon, and I think that still is impacting this line we are getting here for Georgia in their first road game, and even if they get up 31-0, South Carolina is going to fight for their coach, and with a capable QB a back door cover is clearly possible. I’m not playing this for a back door cover. I expect South Carolina’s best effort at home facing #1 team on a huge recruiting weekend. |
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09-17-22 | Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
Purdue +1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD We have two one dimensional offenses of different styles going against each other as we have a clash of the Big Ten and ACC. First off the Big Ten has gone 8-4 vs. the ACC outscoring them by a TD since 2020 so while these two teams appear to be about the same in their given conference I think Purdue and this coaching staff led by Brohm have definitely proven they are the better team. This is a team that showed they could win on the road winning 5 games last year and are 9-3 ATS overall as an away dog under Jeff Brohm. Meanwhile, Syracuse as a home favorite under Baber 8-7 ATS as a home favorite. Purdue’s run defense is going to be the big match up here as Syracuse has a run first offense led by mobile QB Garret Shrader and the great RB Sean Tucker. Purdue ranks 34th in epa run defense and held Penn State in check in their first game, and allowed less than 4 ypc on the road a season ago. Purdue runs a spread 60%+ pass first offense, that I think is harder to defend than Syracuse option run offense. It also helps that Syracuse ranks 108th in epa pass defense, and ranked outside the top 100 a season ago. While their designed 3-3-5 defense is built to defense the spread their defense is extremely young especially in the secondary. I actually think Purdue who has a size advantage up front with 3 of their 5 OL being upper classmen and an average total weight of 308lbs. I look for Purdue to be able to get some explosive plays in this game, which was something they were able to achieve in week 2 but not in the game against Penn State. I gave out Syracuse at home vs. Louisville in week 1 and it was an easy casher. Syracuse has a very good home field advantage in a dome, but this is an early noon kickoff, and I think Purdue’s pass first play style is something that will give them trouble. They only played two teams a season ago that were pass first offenses (Pitt, NC State) those teams won by 17 and 24 putting up 31 and 41 points respectively and dating back 2019 they are 0-7 vs pass first teams, and they have yet to face a team that passes over 60% of the time like Purdue typically does. Last note on this one.. Jeff Brohm was a +7 dog vs. Dino Babers Bowling Green team back in 2014, and Western Kentucky won 59-31. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Chargers +4.5 2.2% play |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +6.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
Seahawks +7 -130 buy 1/2 2.5% play |
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09-11-22 | Giants +5.5 v. Titans | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Giants +5.5 3% play |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +7 v. Bengals | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Steelers +7 2.2% play |
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09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions +5.5 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Lions +6 2.2% play |
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09-11-22 | Saints v. Falcons +5.5 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Falcons +5.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
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09-10-22 | Boston College +3 v. Virginia Tech | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Boston College +3 2.2% play Virginia Tech at night is a rough place to play with Enter Sandman blaring as the Hokies come onto the field, but it hasn’t been as challenging in recent memory. With a new coaching staff taking over, and despite a veteran team they were not very good a week ago. HC Brent Pry said he was surprised how sloppy they were, 5 TO’s 14 penalties. They are all correctable, but in a week? Boston College has the better head coach and QB, and Zay Flowers is a game changer at WR. BC also went into Clemson last year and played that game to the wire. I think BC can pull the upset, but it will be a closely contested game so I’m taking the 3 points. |
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09-10-22 | Kentucky +6 v. Florida | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Kentucky + 6 3.3% play I think we are getting a ton of value with Kentucky here after Florida upset Utah last week in the swamp. Anthony Richardson is a top 5 Heisman candidate and an unranked Flroida team is now ranked #12, it’s almost laughable. I like Billy Napier as the HC, but lets just slow down a bit. Even Napier said it was going to take some time, and Kentucky has had Florida’s number the last few years and now we are getting a few extra points based on last week’s results. I also like that Kentucky had a MAC team in week 1, and were able to prepare a bit for Florida over the summer while Florida was focused on top 10 Utah. A Utah team that really shot themselves in the foot coming away with 0 points on two trips inside the 10, and of their 6 trips in the red zone they turned it over twice, and settled for 2FG’s. They were able to move the ball with ease on this Florida defense. Kentucky plays with a lot of passion and a chip on their shoulder, and I like their chances here to contain Anthony Richardson who has a lot more to prove at this point. Kentucky really held Richardson in check in last year’s meeting, and I think they can force him to be a passer. Richardson did not have a single attempt to the left side of the field, which to me just goes to show you that he’s got to gain a lot more confidence. Kentucky has some injuries at RB, but I think they’ll be just fine and Will Levis at QB is a capable runner here. Kentucky also holds the edge in special teams and are a far better tackling team. Again, I like Napier, but this is too much credit. One of the reasons Dan Mullen got fired was talent, and recruiting and I just think this ends up being a close game. |
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09-10-22 | Southern Miss +25.5 v. Miami-FL | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show | |
Southern MIss +25 2.2% play |
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09-10-22 | South Carolina +8.5 v. Arkansas | 30-44 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 58 m | Show | |
South Carolina +8.5 2.2% play |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +4.5 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
fsu +4.5 3.3% play |
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09-03-22 | Louisville v. Syracuse +5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Syracuse +5 2.2% play This is a big divisional game to kick off the season in the ACC with two head coaches feeling the pressure of their jobs on the line. With that said there is a lot of love in the market for Louisville due to QB Malik Cunningham, but I'm not so sure they should be a road favorite here, and the line has moved up to +5, giving us even more value on Syracuse, a team that returns 17 guys. Syracuse also lost 71-3 the last two years to Louisville, and don't think that's been on their mind all spring/summer long. Aside from the returnign players it will be the second season of DC Tony White's system (3-3-5), and they bring in OC Robert Anae from Virginia who has experience runnign the spread with heavy run and heavy pass, and I think we will see him lean on the running game, which is the strength of this offense with Garret Scharaeder and Sean Tucker. They ran for 198 yards against Louisville last year, the big key is to keep the game close early so they are not forced to pass. Anae's Virginia team put 500+ yards up on Louisville's defense, and it was all by the pass, and I think we will see a more balanced Syracuse offense this year with their top 3 receivers returning. Special Teams, which was a huge issue last year can only improve with a new ST coach as well, and you can't forget that the Carrier Dome now JMA Wirelless Dome is a very hard place to play especailly at night. Louisville's HC Scott Satterfeld to me has been a disspointment, just 4-10 on the road, and I don't see how it's going to get any better this year. I think they're in the mix for another 7-5 season. I think this game comes down to the wire, and it's a game that Syracuse can steal. |
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09-03-22 | Utah -2.5 v. Florida | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
Utah -2.5 3.3% play |
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09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Ohio +4.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Ohio +4.5 2.2% play |
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09-03-22 | Rutgers +7 v. Boston College | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 37 h 13 m | Show | |
Rutgers +7 2.2% play Rutgers +7 By brand it seems like Rutgers is the far worse team, and that is giving us some value in the line in my opinion, but closer looks reveals the fact that Rutgers is playing in the tougher conference Big Ten and had similar statistics last year against a far tougher schedule. For instance their opponents average YPP differential was +0.16, while BC’s were -0.32. There are also a ton of familiarities between these two staffs, which means to me a close game. Hafley coached on Schiano’s staff at Rutgers and in the NFL, and both OC/DC, ST coordinators for Illinois coached under Schiano as well. BC breaks in a new OC, and 5 new starters on the offensive line, while Rutgers strength is in the secondary they have great depth on the DL, and I think this game goes down to the wire. Rutgers should get better QB play this year, and they played much better in the early part of last season and should have an edge on special teams here. |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina +1.5 v. Appalachian State | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show | |
North Carolina +1.5 1% I’ll take the extra 3 points of value as North Carolina opened -4 now down to -1 for the instate show down between App State and North Carolina. App State is very much a public dog, as the public knows very well that this team has been able to upset the P5 opponents. In fact they upset North Carolina in 2019, in Mack Brown’s first season, but I would point to the fact that North Carolina was hosting #1 ranked Clemson the next week. Part of this line movement is also, because UNC played FAMU last week as a 45 poitn favorite and only led 35-24 in the third, but I think we saw some good things form Drake Maye at QB, which is the biggest question mark of this team. Maye spread the ball around, and has to have confidence behind a veteran OL. App State also has a veteran OL, two top RB, and veteran QB in Chase Brice, but Brice still turnover prone, 30 INT’s in his career, and in 2020 vs. UNC at home went 11-23, and had 0TD and 1 INT. Mack Brown has emphasized winning on the road as the key to this team’s season. They haven’t won on the road in 630 days, and wouldn’t it be perfect to get a win against App State as a basic dog vs. little brother. I think the talent gap comes out and UNC wins this game. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois v. Indiana -1.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
Indiana -1 2.2% play Indiana is really flying under the radar here, and they go up against an Illinois team that blew out Wyoming last week and is getting all kinds of great press. I’m not buying into Illinois, and the praise everyone is giving their transfer QB Tommy Devito who could not hack it at Syracuse. Wyoming also had huge roster issues with transfers, and not surprised at all that Illinois was able to run it up on them. Devito getting praise for 5.2 yards per pass attempt, and now he goes on the road on Friday night in the Big Ten. Indiana also been able to prepare for Illinois didn’t have a game last week, and there is no tape with Indiana bringing in a new OC and a ton of transfers I think Illinois will be guessing early. Indiana had a tough year last year going 2-10, after they lost Penix to injury and had a couple close losses, and were -13 TO. They have a ton of transfers, and Tom Allen’s best recruiting class. I see why some are hesitant and are backing Illinois, but I still think Tom Allen is a better coach than Bielema and I think Indiana has more talent at this point. I really think we see talented QB Connor Bazelak, transfer from Missouri get the nod, and Indiana will be getting the hype after this one. playing a smart game allowing his defense to control the game. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State -3.5 v. Purdue | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Penn State -3.5 2.2% play Purdue is a bit of a public dog here, and I like Purdue as a dog under Jeff Brohm, but not in this spot to open the season against a more talented team. Purdue is not going to sneak up on anyone at this point, and I'm sure Franklin has highlighted this to his team as Purdue has had major upsets under Brohm including twice against a #2 ranked team. I think it is also a lot to ask Purdue to be competiive in a year they lost 3 players to the NFL draft. Sean Clifford was banged up all year long and got no help from a running game. When healthy Clifford is a very good player, and expect to see that showcased tonight. I like the fact that they brought in Michell Tinsley from Western Kentucky (1402 receiving yards) Parker Washington returns, and they got the Gatorade player of the year in RB Nicholas Singleton who should be a huge asset for Penn State. The defense only returns 4 starters, but I expect they'll be just fine and be able to get pressure from the defensive line and cause some turnovers tonight with new DC Manny Diaz back where he belongs in the DC role. |
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09-01-22 | Central Michigan +21.5 v. Oklahoma State | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +21.5 2.2% play |
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08-27-22 | North Texas v. UTEP +1.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
UTEP +1.5 1.1% PLAY |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern +11.5 v. Nebraska | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play Any time your see Pat Fitzgerald as an underdog and a double digit underdog you have to take a look. Last year was probably an outlier, and it makes sense they had just 4 starters returning on defense, with a new DC, off a covid year. This year I expect to see a much improved Northwestern team, that has a very experienced OL, and a QB in Ryan Hilinski who could make great strides. This game is played in Ireland, and I expect Northwestern to be the more diciplined team. Scott Frost tenure at Nebraska has been frustrating, and I understand that 3-9 campaign was the best 3 win team of all time. We benefited from backing Nebraska countless times, but Frost had to clean house to keep his job. I personally don't like to back a team with so many changes early in the season. I'm not sure I'm a fan of Casey Thompson starting at QB. I thought Adrian Martinez really took a lot of the blame for the struggles of this team. He would have the TO's that cost them games, but he also had to carry this offense on his shoulders, led the team in rushing. Casey Thompson has only 10 career starts, not nearly as dynamic as Martinez, and showed struggled in road games, and vs. top defenses. Northwestern's defense should be improved, and the strength is in their secondary. I expect a very close game to start the year here, and when you consider 18-20 were all close games between these two with the spread being 7 or less points, and Northwestern take 2 of those 3, we have line value. Last year's blowout loss should be on Northwestern's mind, and I think that is why we have some line inflation here. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 54 m | Show | |
Chiefs -6.5 -130 3% |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Chiefs -1 2.2% play |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
Tampa Bucs -2.5 -114 5.5% NFL POD Just who have the Rams beaten of late that is impressive? They played very poorly down the stretch and were fortunate and went 3-5 vs. playoff teams this year with 2 wins coming against a Cardinal team that was obviously having issues down the stretch. They also beat Tampa in LA, but Tampa out gained them, and had a monster game on deck as Brady was set to return to New England. Stafford played out of his mind on third down in that game, and I don’t know that I see him playing perfectly again. If he does we tip our hat, and take the loss. I think Tampa has some value here, because there is still this idea that the offense is going to struggle without Brown, and Godwin, but there are plenty of weapons left in Tampa. Rumors Lenoard Fournette will return, and it looks like both Wirfs/Jensen will play in this game along the offensive line. Brady at home won’t be phased by the Rams, while Stafford just won his first playoff game in his career. Stafford had issues with turnovers all year and they go against a Bucs team that ranked 7th in TO/drive while the Rams were 20th in offensive TO’s/drive. If there is going to be a turnover that impacts this game it’s going to be on the Rams side. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers +6 v. Packers | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
49ers +5.5 3.3% play |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3.5 | 19-16 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Titans -3 -125 4% play Titans will be the healthiest they have ever been all season it seems, and they have the far better coach with an extra week of rest playing at home. The Titans played and beat three very good teams at home, the 49ers, Bills and Chiefs who are all still in the playoffs, but two of those games were wins by exactly 3 points, and 4 of the Bengals 6 losses were by exactly 3 points. I think the Titans are the better team by the numbers and they have faced a tougher schedule. The Titans blend of opponent epa run and pass defenses faced rank 15.11 on average, while the Bengals have faced an average blend of 20.33. Titans vs. top 15 pass defense went 4-3, but 3-1 at home, and they were 8-2 vs. top 15 run defense, for which the Bengals rank 10th and 14th. They also faced 5 teams in the top 15 in both and went 3-2 in those games. The Bengals on the other hand only faced 6 top pass defenses, went 3-3, and only 5 top run defenses and went 5-0. The Titans rank top 15 in both, and the Bengals have not seen a team all year ranked in the top 15 in both categories. The only comparable measure I see is the fact that the Bengals went 0-3 vs. top 10 success rate defenses scoring only 16, 23, and 16 points. Let’s move on over to the defensive side of the ball, and again the Titans have faced a slightly tougher schedule 17.02 average blend compared to 17.4. Bengals only have a top 15 passing offense, and the Titans defense has gone 4-2 vs. those teams on the year. The Bengals defense has faced only 5 top 10 15 passing offenses, and went 2-3, and they were just 2-4 vs. top 15 rushing offenses. Titans rank top 15 in both epa pass and run, and while it’s only 14th and 13th you have to factor in time missed by some of their star players like AJ Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry who are all back for this game. Only 11% of Tannehill’s drop backs this year happened with that trio on the field. Bengals also faced two teams that were top 15 in both categories like the Titans and went 0-2. The closest opponent would be the 49ers who they lost to. The Bengals also have not handled winning big games this year well. That makes a ton of sense for a team that is young. After their big win against division rival Steelers earlier in the season they got blown out by the Chargers at home the next game. After their first win against the Ravens they lost to the Jets, and then after clinching their division by beating the Chiefs they lost to the Browns to end the season. They just ended a 31 year playoff win drought, and have to go on the road and face a very under rated Titans team. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rams -3 -115 3% play At the end of the day do you really trust Kliff Kingsbury to win a playoff game? McVeigh 8-1-1 ATS and 9-1 SU vs. Cardinals. This drop to -3 to me is all about JJ Watt being announced in and the Cardinals success on the road. I honestly don’t know how healthy Watt actually is and if he can have an impact on the game. Cardinals did beat the Rams week 4 against these Rams with Watt, but they also had Hopkins at WR who they won’t have here. The Rams also had just beaten Tampa Bay and Tom Brady the week before they played the Cardinals, so I think there was a bit of a hangover impact in that game. Cardinals have been great on the road, but honestly, I was not that impressed with their win at Dallas, and we saw what Dallas did yesterday. They also lost 12-30 at Detroit, and with the division on the line lost to a bad Seattle team the last week of the season. The Rams on the other hand also did not play well down the stretch, but they found ways to still get the win with 5 of their last 6 before losing to a very good 49ers team the last week of the season. |
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01-16-22 | 49ers +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
49ers +3.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD E Right now you can get +102 for +3 on the 49ers, if you wait long enough I suspect a +3.5 may pop at your book. That's what I'm doing here, but righ tnow you can buy the half and grab the -115. First of all the 49ers come from the much tougher division with 3 of the 4 teams in the playoffs, and the worst team being Seattle. Each NFC West team played the AFC East 1x, all games were on the road, and the NFC West went 3-1 SU & ATS with margin of cover of 10.67 points. Both teams had some key injuries throughout the year that impacted their teams so I’m not going to harp on the Cowboys injuries or the 49ers as they both had to go through adversity to get here. Both teams went 4-4 vs. team’s with a +0.1 or more ypp differential, but it’s worth noting that all 4 of the 49ers losses came against top 10 run defenses in that cycle, and the Cowboys rank 20th in epa run defense, 16th in rushing defense dvoa. 49ers and Kyle Shanahan are built off their zone running scheme that operates on misdirection, speed, and RB with great natural ability to hit the correct hole. This is a bad match up against an aggressive defense with speed like the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys could have some stops for loss, but overall the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball here. The 49ers vs. bad run defenses (outside of the top 15) went 7-1 averaged 29.6 ppg, with a margin of victory of 12.42 points, and their only loss was by 2 against the top seeded Cowboys. Much can be said about the 49ers pass defense as well that ranks 23rd in epa, and 16th in dvoa. Cowboys when facing a bad pass defense went 8-2 this year, they averaged 36.8 ppg, with a margin of victory of 22.8 ppg, but in that sample is the horrible NFC East opponents including covid issues, and an Eagles team that rested all their players the last week of the season when the Cowboys put up 50+ points. I think the Cowboys will get some points here for sure, but that’s also why I played 49ers over. It’s also worth noting that 49ers pass defense has had issues, but their strength of opponent passing teams is very tough. On average they faced 15th ranked passing offense when we blend passing dvoa and epa. Compare that with the weakness of the Cowboys defense which faced an average run offense ranking 17.54. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6.5 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Raiders +6 2.2% play |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama +3 | Top | 33-18 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Alabama +3 5.5% NCAAF POD First off lets address the "sharp" vs. "public joe," because it does appear that 60% of the tickets are on Bama, and just 40% of the money. I think many are number grabbers pointing to the fact that, hey Georgia was -6.5 on a neutral in the SEC Championship, and now they are -3 or even -2.5 in places. The look ahead was actually 3.5 for that game, but Alabama struggled with Auburn and we get 3 points of line movement. If anything this is great news for the Alabama side, because there is no rat poison for NIck Saban's players to feel overly confident even though they just beat this team by double digits. It only helps that many of the radio and guys who say they are sharp are also on Georgia here. Many of those guys that are said to be sharp, are not transparent on their records and don't win long term. Some other concerns here are the fact that Menchie is out for Alabama, and while that's a big loss, they replace him with another 5 star WR that has more talent in Ja"Corey Brooks who had 4 catches, 66 yards and a TD vs. Cincinnati. There are some bumps and bruises on the right side of the offensive line, but those are being hush hush, and I think there won't be an issue. Bryce Young can't play out of his mind again, but I think you have to factor in Brian Robinson is healthy again, and wasn't for the SEC Championship. Jameson Williams is a difference maker and the main reason Alabama struggled vs. Auburn. We saw the difference with him in the game, and I'm sure Georgia makes adjustments to take him out of the game, but that opens things up for Bolden, Billingsley, and Brooks and others in this passing game. Georgia's offense in recent match ups has come out throwing on Alabama, mainly bc that seems to be the weakness of the defense, and it is again this year. You can't ignore that Stetson Bennett has played better agaisnt Alabama in his last outing, but still he threw 2 interceptions, and I still question now that Alabama is able to take that game and make adjustments. Honestly when we take out the two Alabama games he has had 13 opponents he's gone up against and they have had an average 73 ypp defense, and those teams who averaged 73rd rank ypp went against an opponent average of 59.3 ypp offense. He's really only gone up against a total of 4 top 40 defenses including the two times against Alabama. He struggled this year against Florida who ranked 39th in ypp, and he had a great game against Michigan, but they had extra month to prepare, and lets be honest Michigan was not the 8th ranked defense, they played an easy schedule of offenses averaging 73.5 in ypp. Alabama ranks 7th, and their opponent average ypp offense is 51. In my opinion Alabama's defense is totally getting disrespected with all the talk on Georgia's defense, which has flaws. Their secondary does not have the speed to keep up with Alabama's receivers, and Alabama with their hurry up can take the defensive line out of the game. It's really up to Stetson Bennett in this game, and can he make adjustments again to make his game better? I just don't think the talent is there for him to pull something we haven't seen before, and going up against Nick Saban who will make his own adjustments from the last game. Adjustments, and psychological advantage on the Alabama side. You really can't argue that. 2017 Georgia played Alabama in the National Championship game and led 13-0 at the half, but then adjustments and Saban went to a backup QB, and they outscored Georgia 26-10 to win in OT. In fact Alabama has outscored Georgia in the second half 85-24 in the last 4 meetings including the 2017 game. They trailed in 3 of the 4 in the first half 75-58. So if we consider this second game of the season like a second half, where both teams have limited time to review and make adjustments, history tells us that Alabama is going to have the advantage, and I think that advantage is on their defense which is held Georgia to 6ppg in the second half of games. Stetson Bennett could prove me wrong, but until I see it there is only one play here and it's on Alabama as a dog. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 58 m | Show | |
Chargers -3 3.3% play |
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01-09-22 | Patriots v. Dolphins +6.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Dolphins +6.5 1.1% play |
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01-09-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
49ers +3.5 5.5% POD |
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01-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings -4 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Vikings -4 2.2% play |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys -3.5 v. Eagles | 51-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Cowboys -3.5 1% |
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01-02-22 | Vikings +13 v. Packers | 10-37 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Vikings +13 2.2% play |
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01-02-22 | Giants +6.5 v. Bears | 3-29 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Giants +7 -120 buy 1/2 point 3% |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
Washington +6 2.2% |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Bengals +4 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | 21-7 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Ole Miss -1.5 3.3% play I love the fact that Matt Corral will play in this game, and I love that Ole Miss will be going for their 11th win for the first time in program history. Baylor has had a remarkable season, and I have to give Dave Arranda a lot of credit. I faded this team multiple times under Arranda, and I was flat out wrong. With all of that being said, I think Ole Miss has an advantage in the dome here, some of their stats, which are already better against tougher competition are off, because Corral was not healthy most of the year and he rarely had all 3 of his receivers healthy, but they will in this game. Baylor will start Gerry Bohannon who missed time with a hamstring issue, but how healthy is he, and at what point in the game does the hamstring become an issue if at all? Honestly both teams had similar schedules, but Ole Miss +0.9 ypp differential, vs. an average opponent 0.37 is impressive compared to Baylor +0.7 vs. 0.225. Both teams went 5-1 against opponents who had a +0.7 or higher yard per play differential, and Ole Miss only loss against Alabama, while Baylor lost to Oklahoma State, and should have lost to Iowa State (go back and look). In that 5-1 span Ole Miss played the tougher competition those teams averaged 0.98 ypp differential against their opponent 0.15 ypp, and Ole miss +9.6 points in their wins, while Baylor’s opponetns average 0.92ypp vs. opponent average of +0.04, and won by a margin of 8.8 points per game. So all around very close, but what gets me to play this game here is Matt Corral is the better QB, some of Ole Miss stats are off because of the major injuries, and I actually like that Ole Miss defense stepped up when they were not 100% on offense. |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show | |
Utah +4.5 3.3% play / Utah +165 0.7% bonus |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky v. Iowa +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Iowa +3.5 -120 3% play |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -6.5 2.2% play Arizona State without their top 2 RB, top 2CB, but this handicap seems a bit basic to me. Arizona State only wins games when they control the trenches and avoid the turnover. +4 to margin in wins -5 in losses more on this later. In wins they run for 5.76 ypc, and losses 4.15. They were also not a good running team away form home compared to home where they averaged over a ypc more, and they’ll be going up against one of the best run defenses in the country in Las Vegas, where Wisconsin should have a bit of home field advantage. Wisconsin fans travel well to every sport. Defensively Arizona State is very good, but allowed 3.01 ypc in wins, and 4.63 ypc in losses. They allowed 1.36ypc more on the road this year. Wisconsin has the advantages in run defense and run offense. Arizona State just 1-3 vs. teams that are in the top 50 in rushing offense giving up a TD more than their 20.9ppg allowed overall in those games. Their 4 losses this year were by double digits. Arizona State also faced just one team in the top 75 in success rate defense, and Wisconsin is #2. They’ll have to do it without their top 2 RB, their C who was All Pac 12, and their top 2 CBs. I don’t trust Jayden Daniels to win this game for Arizona State. When he was held under 50 yards this year they were just 1-4 scoring 17, 21,21, 10 and 42 points in those games. Wisconsin boasts the #2 epa run defense, #1 in ypc, and held a similar QB in Adrian Martinez to only 23 yards on 9 carries. I believe the issues that were giving Wisconsin problems early that led to losses were turnovers and that was cleaned up. They had -11 to margin in their first 5 games, and finished +12 in their final 7 games. Arizona State actually ranked 104th in to% per drive, and Daniels had just as many issues as Mertz.ew Graham Mertz is still not the answer, but it seems like Arizona State’s run defense can be had and unless Wisconsin announces a bunch of players out due to covid I like this number, and I’ll back the Badgers in what should be a close game. Wisconsin also has the edge on special teams. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State -3 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Michigan State -3 2.2% play |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
Tennessee -6 2.2% play Tennessee wants to go fast, and Hooker has been a blast to watch. Purdue is playing without their top two WR, Bell and Wright, their starting LT Greg Long is doubtful, and best defender George Karlaftis is preparing for the NFL draft. They also are without their Sr CB Dedrick Mackey who dind’t make the trip for academic issues. I don’t think these losses in this match up have been properly calculated into the line. Purdue no longer has the offensive fire power to keep up with Tennessee in my opinion. Tennessee’s defensive weakness is vs. the run, but Purdue passes the ball 62% of the time, and will be without their top weapon. Every time a defense faces this offense for the first team it takes time to adjust, and I think Tennessee can go up early in this one. Purdue has not seen anything like the speed that is going to be run by Tennessee and it’s going to be a huge adjustment. Other factors here are the fact that Purdue also very prone to the turnovers ranking 112th in turnovers per possession and that was with their top targets and LT in the game. Tennessee takes care of the ball ranking 34th in to% per drive. Tennessee also has a huge edge in special teams ranking 7th to 102nd. |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson -1 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
Clemson -1 3.3% play |
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12-28-21 | Louisville +1 v. Air Force | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Louisville +1 2.2% play |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Washington +10 2% |
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12-26-21 | Ravens +7 v. Bengals | 21-41 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Ravens +7 1% play |
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12-26-21 | Rams v. Vikings +3.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
Vikings +3.5 4.5% / Vikings +155 1% |