08-05-14 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians -110 |
Top |
9-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
[b]INDIANS -112 4* MLB POD[/b] The Indians have dominated this in state rivalry at home winning 10 of 11. They have the disadvantage in the starting pitchers today, but I'm looking past that as Johny Cueto has had an easy time going up against National League offenses and the Indians have every other advantage.
The Indians are 3rd in OPS vs. RHP while the Reds are 26th. The Indians bullpen is also nearly 1.5 run better in ERA for home/away splits as well has 1.5 runs per 9 in offense better. Josh Tomlin is coming into this game on extra rest and has done well as a home favorite 19-9 over his last 28 and I think he pitches well tonight not having to face some of the Reds sluggers who are still on the DL. It's a nice break for him being able to face a NL offense at the bottom of the league in production.
|
08-04-14 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals -137 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-137 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
Nationals -137 4* MLB POD Kevin Gausman has to worry about hitting tonight which is not typical for him and it's the reason I always like to fade the AL team visiting the NL team. It will be just enough to give the Nationals a significant edge when you consider they are pretty even in offense and have a big advantage on the mound. Tanner Roark is not a household name, but he has a 1.94 ERA at home and that can't be ignored. You would think the odds would be a bit higher, but Gausman has an ERA of 2.86 ERA on the road but a 1.50 WHIP shows that luck may have played a factor. Washington owns bullpen advantage on the season as well and their offense is a bit hotter as the Orioles are in a bit of a slump batting .192 with just 2.75 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP. Washington is 37-14 in their last 51 home games as a favorite -110 to -150 in interleague play!
|
08-02-14 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -127 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
08-01-14 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Houston Astros +105 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
07-30-14 |
Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs -114 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
[b]CUBS -110 4.5*mlbpod [/b] We have an even pitching match up here with a pair of lefties and the Cubs actually have been scoring more runs on the season vs. LHP than the Rockies if you can believe that. The Rockies are 3rd in OPS while the Cubs are 5th, but factor in Coors Field and I think the Cubs are the better offensive team especially since the Rockies are without Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Cuddyer. Travis Wood has been very good at home with an ERA in the 3's and Brett Anderson who has pitched well is still unproven and injury prone. Anderson has not faced a team in the top 10 vs. LHP until tonight and he comes into this start off back to back starts of 100+ pitches. I don't see him going deep into this game and the Cubbies have the bullpen advantage here. Rockies are 16-35 on the road while the Cubs are nearly .500 at home I'll take them as small favorites here in a heartbeat.
|
07-29-14 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. San Diego Padres -106 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
[b]Padres -113 4* MLB POD[/b] The Padres at home are always intriguing because they are in every game and I think this is good value with Tyson Ross on the mound who the Cardinals have never faced. It's also not like the Cardinals have been scoring a ton of runs of late or vs. RHP on the road, just 3.31 on the road vs. RHP. San Diego is not a great offensive time either, but they have a clear cut advantage on the mound especially out of the pen where they have a 2.26 ERA at home and 2.62 on the year both considerably better than the Cardinals.
Tyson Ross has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP at home this year and Lance Lynn who has a 3.53 ERA seems to be more lucky posting a 1.39 WHIP. The Padres were swept on the road over the weekend and should be motivated to come back home tonight to win as they are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
|
07-21-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox -178 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
White Sox -178 4* MLB POD I'll go with the Sox as they have a major advantage on the mound tonight with their ace going facing the Royals who can't hit LHP and are 26th in OPS vs. LHP on the year. Chris Sale has a 2.69 ERA over the last 3 years vs. the Royals as a starter, but a 1.08 ERA this year. He's on extra rest which he posts a 1.88 ERA this season. He's actually on 11 days rest which looking back at his career he has 4 starts on irregular rest of 10+ days and he posted a 1.29 ERA in those starts. The Royals are scoring < 3 runs per game over their last 10 vs. LHP.
The White Sox can't hit LHP either but today they face a RHP in Jeremy Guthrie. White Sox rank 11th and while Guthrie has good numbers vs. the White Sox this is a different offensive line up than years past. Guthrie also has a 5.08 ERA on extra rest this season and a 5.28 ERA during the month of July over the last 3 years. I'll roll the dice and pay a premium for what I feel has a 90% chance of winning.
|
07-20-14 |
Houston Astros +115 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
11-7 |
Win
|
115 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
Astros +114 4*MLB POD The Astros are really flying under the radar vs. LHP as they rank 4th in OPS and they have also hit John Danks hard in his career 7.71 ERA in 3 career starts. Danks also has struggled during day starts with an ERA over 4 and the Astros are 8th in DAY OPS compared to the Sox who are 19th. I think the Astros can avoid the sweep with who they send to the mound in Jared Cosart who was pitching consistently well before the All Star break up until his last 2 starts where he got a blister, but I think the long break will have allowed him to fully heal and he should throw a quality start today while I think the Astros bats will wake up a bit on Sunday. The Sox are also just 3-7 in their last 10 game 3's in a series!
|
07-19-14 |
Houston Astros -105 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
[b]Astros -105 4* MLB POD[/b] I'll go with the Astros here to rebound from the loss last night as the White Sox are 15-36 in their last 51 Saturday games and they will have the significantly better pitcher on the mound. Dallas Keuchel has been very consistent this year, but he did struggle over his last 4 starts going into the All Star break.. I think now he is well rested (9 days rest) and is ready for another sharp run of quality pitching. We are getting value here because he struggled over his last 4 but a closer look and we see all 4 opponents in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP. In fact 11 of his 17 starts have been against top 15 OPS opponents and the other 6 he has 1.71 ERA which I bring up because the Chicago White Sox are 27th in OPS vs. LHP. I expect Keuchel to bounce back from his recent run of poor starts when he faces the White Sox who are hitting .232 and scoring 1.23 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP.
For the White Sox they throw their most inconsistent starter out there in Hector Noesi who has struggled with control and has given up 12 hits in 33 AB to the Astros roster. He posts a 5.15 ERA at home with a 1.56 WHIP. The Astros can hit a bit and really don't hit RHP well, but the pitching match up is too significant to ignore. Noesi has not pitched well on extra rest either 22 ER in 6 starts over 35.2 IP for a 5.55 ERA.
|
07-18-14 |
Tampa Bay Rays -123 v. Minnesota Twins |
Top |
6-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
Tampa Rays -123 4* MLB POD
|
07-12-14 |
Oakland A's +104 v. Seattle Mariners |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
Athletics +102 4* MLB POD I can not pas sup on the A's as under dogs right now as they are simply the best team in baseball and you will always find value on them. I give a slight edge in the pitching match up to the Mariners, but it won't help the way they have been hitting. Other than Robinson Cano everyone has been struggling with only 8 runs total in their last 6 games combined. We were lucky enough to sneak a victory last night 3-2 with King Felix on the mound, but I don't think that will continue here tonight. Jesse Chavez is 7-3 in his last 10 road starts and he's been pretty consistent all year long and has solid raw stats and he'll face 8 left handed batters, but his pitches have performed well and he's actually holding left handed batters to better numbers - .233 average and a .640 OPS on the season with no reason to believe that won't continue.
Iwakuma has been a very consistent starter in the majors, but he struggles on 4 days rest and I see it happening here tonight. His last 6 starts on 4 days rest has produced a 4.86 ERA with 4 0f the 6 starts allowing 4 or more ER which will be plenty in this match up. Oakland is 11-4 in their last 15 following a loss and are scoring 5.30 runs per 9 vs. RHP following a loss. I look for them to regroup with Cespedis back in the line up who is 8-18 with 3 HR vs. Iwakuma.
|
07-11-14 |
Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners -123 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
[b]Mariners -123 4* MLB POD[/b] This play has everything to do with King Felix Hernandez as he matches up with the best team in the league. Felix is as well rested as he's ever been going into the All Star break. This is his third start in a row on 5 days rest which you don't see much from him, but his results on 5 days rest are absolutely great posting a 1.67 ERA this year in 6 starts with a 54:9 K to BB ratio in 43 IP with a 0.61 WHIP. Last year it was more of the same while he posted a 2.35 ERA on 5 days rest. I expect him to pitch well again tonight he has held this Oakland line up to a .570 OPS over 313 AB and they are struggling over their last 10 vs. RHP .234 3.59 runs per 9 which is much lower than their season average.
Although Seattle's offense has been in a slump themselves I think it will help with Jeff Samardija on the mound who is pitching well, but has not pitched up to those numbers on the road and yet he comes off the high of pitching in his first game as an Oakland A at home now he hits the road on 4 days rest. I just think he might have pitched too hard in his last start and is due for a let down here against the Mariners who actually have the better bullpen to take the ball from Felix as they are posting a 2.39 ERA on the season and a 1.22 over their last 10. Felix has a 2.64 ERA vs. Oakland who is 22-10 in his 32 starts against them.
|
07-09-14 |
Kansas City Royals +104 v. Tampa Bay Rays |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
104 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
[b]Royals +104 4* MLB POD[/b] The Rays are hot right now but so are the Royals and I think this is a complete mismatch. The Royals hit RHP better, their bullpen is better and their starting pitcher is better. Yordana Ventura carries a 2.32 ERA on the road and a 2.89 ERA at night compared with Alex Cobb's 4.37 at home and 6.40 ERA at night. Not to mention Cobb has not had success against the Royals.
Ventura is known for his speed leading the majors in average velocity on his fast ball. The Rays have faced 7 pitchers this season who have averaged over 93mph on their fastball and those starters have posted a 2.03 ERA averaging nearly 7 innings pitched. Ventura's 3 pitches are fastball, curve and changeup. The Rays are ranked 14th 24th and 27th and I expect Ventura to continue his success on the road here tonight.
|
07-08-14 |
Atlanta Braves -144 v. New York Mets |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-144 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
[b]Braves -145 4.5*MLB POD[/b] I like the Braves, and the value is right. When you look at the odds and the match up you see that the Braves have not hit any better vs. RHP than the Mets have overall or on the home/away splits and the bullpens are pretty comparable about the same "statistically." So you could argue that the Mets are the value here, but the Mets really are not a good team and are 28-62 in their last 90 games at home as an under dog. I can't seem them winning again tonight after their walk off last night which they felt the need to celebrate. I get the season is a grind and you need to celebrate those things, but that's the mentality of this Mets team and it's a huge issue why they have been struggling to win games in their own ball park since Citi Field arrived.
Next the starting match ups is a complete mismatch. Yes Julio Teheran has a 3.45 ERA on the road compared with Jacob Degrom's ERA in the 2's at home, but these stats are misleading. Teheran had 1 bad start all year and it came on 4 days rest in Colorado who is also #1 in OPS vs. RHP (Mets are 25th). Take that start out and Teheran has a 2.68 ERA on the road and he's also got a 1.56 ERA on 5 days rest which he has here. Teheran also has a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Mets and is walking 2 batters less per 9 innings than Degrom. The Braves offense and bullpen are a bit hotter over their last 5 games which I also like to look at considering baseball players are streaky.
|
07-05-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -113 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
Indians -113 4* MLB POD Jeremy Guthrie is one of those pitchers that always pitches on the edge he's always due for a poor start considering he does not always have elite control and he doesn't have a strike out pitch. Facing the Indians is a major issue in 232 AB the Indians have a .302 average and a .863 OPS. The middle of the line up have the following stat lines - 1.132 OPS, 1.634, 1.231, 1.161 and they are all likely in the lineup tonight. The Indians are 7th in OPS vs. RHP and are 23-18 at home, 37-18 in their last 55 home games as a favorite. I think they bounce back because they'll have the young TJ House on the mound who has pitched much better than his numbers reflect.
First of all for House he has struggled vs. the two top 5 offenses he faced giving up 10 ER in 9.1 IP. He's only had 1 home start out of his 6 as well, but against 4 other opponents he carries a 2.31 ERA. The Royals offense is not elite by any means vs. LHP ranked 24th in OPS and is scoring only 2.95 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. The fast ball is a young pitcher's best friend and House can throw it often as the Royals are ranked 28th vs. FB in value. Overall Cleveland's bullpen is a bit better and has been performing well posting a 2.63 ERA over their last 10. This is great value for a home team.
|
07-04-14 |
San Francisco Giants -115 v. San Diego Padres |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
Giants -117 5* MLB POD I really like this match up and it really comes down to the Giants having one disadvantage and that's out of their bullpen, but they do carry a 2.74 ERA on the road on the year so they are not at that big of a disadvantage. Matt Cain takes the mound and I think we are getting great value here based on his earlier performance vs. the Padres at home 7.1 innings, 6 ER. Not of quality, but Cain has not pitched great against the Padres at home, but in San Diego things are much different. Since 2011 he carries a 1.03 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP vs. the Padres over 5 starts. I think he's been wildly inconsistent this year and it would be very fitting for him to seek a little revenge on the Padres who roughed him up the last time. Overall he has dominated these hitters in 226 total AB holding them to a .204 average and a .578 OPS.
On the other hand Eric Stults has been worse on the year carrying a 5.27 ERA at home and he really has not seen the benefits of pitching on 5 days rest like your typical pitcher would. In his last 10 starts vs. the Giants which only goes back to 2012 he carries a 5.50 ERA and the Giants collectively have 195 AB and a .318 average, .893 OPS. I love my chances backing Cain based on those numbers with the odds we are getting. Not to mention the Giants are a top 10 team in OPS vs. LHP this year and over their last 10 they have great advantages batting .311 and scoring 5.73 runs per 9 vs. LHP compared to the Padres .207, 3.38 vs. RHP. Home away splits are much of the same with the Giants at a +1.48 runs per 9 advantage in this situation. When you combine the fact that Stults has not looked very good, the Giants success against him and LHP along with Cain's domination in San Diego the result is for a very good chance at a win.
|
07-02-14 |
Los Angeles Angels -135 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-135 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
[b]Angels -140 4.5* MLB POD [/b] I'm taking the Angels in this spot they are a far superior hitting team especially vs. left handed pitching which both teams will face tonight. The Angels are ranked 2nd in OPS vs. LHP and the White Sox are ranked 23rd, but those stats really don't do their justice. The Angels are also a hot hitting team right now 15 runs in the first two games of the series and scoring over 6 runs per 9 over their last 10 games while the White Sox are at less than 2. The Angels who don't have the better bullpen do over the last 10 days by a 2.48 to 4.45 margin.
I took a look at both pitchers numbers and on the surface both are the same the two biggest differences are freshness and experience. Right now Tyler Skaggs has not pitched in nearly a month and he'll be fresher where as John Danks is pitching in his 3rd start in a row on 4 days rest. HE may have a 2.77 ERA at home this year, but when he's on 4 days rest at home he carries a 5.09 ERA which is nothing new for Danks (4.18 in 2013). I also like the fact that Danks ERA is lower than what it should be his xFIP is 4.91 while Skaggs ERA is higher than his xFIP of 3.71. Meaning we have the better starting pitcher in the match up and I think the value is correct. The Angels are 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. a losing team and the White Sox are 22-45 in their last 67 vsa. winning team combining for a 92-36 angle for the Angels.
|
07-01-14 |
Seattle Mariners -127 v. Houston Astros |
Top |
13-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
[b]Mariners -128 4* MLB POD[/b] I really like Hiroshi Iwakuma coming off two straight poor starts + well rested with 5+ days of rest. He's pitched to a 2.51 ERA over 25 career games on 5 or more career starts on 5 days rest. Jared Cosart on the other hand will go up against one of the hotter line ups in the league as the Mariners are ranked 3rd in OPS over the last 7 days. They are scoring 6.05 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP compared with 2.38 by the Astros. The bullpen is also really the difference here as the Houston bullpen is just not very good ranked last in the league compared to Seattle who is ranked 3rd. Cosart is only making his 3rd home start on short rest and I think he's do to struggle here.
|
06-29-14 |
Los Angeles Angels -118 v. Kansas City Royals |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-118 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
[b]Angels -118 4.5* MLB POD[/b] The Angels have the better starter on the mound today and the better offense. Their offense over the last 10 games, home/away splits and overall are significantly better in this situation and I'll back C.J Wilson who is 6-0 vs. the Royals lifetime with a 2.59 ERA. The Royals have struggled to hit lefties all year less than 2.70 runs per 9 at home and less than 1 r/9 over their last 10 games overall. Wilson also has been dynamite during day games sporting a 1.91 ERA which I think makes up for the fact that he's on the road and on short rest. Jeremy Guthrie has not pitched any better on longer rest and he's given up 4 or more ER in 5 of 10 starts against the Angels who have 10 HR against him in just 154 AB. The Angels are 38-16 in their last 54 games in Kansas City and I think they will be leaving Sunday with another win for the impressive trend.
|
06-28-14 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles -139 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-139 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
[b]Orioles -137 5.5* MAX MLB POD[/b] I really like the match up here as the Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 meetings with the Orioles and 17-36 in their last 53 overall on the road as an under dog. Two lefties go at it today with Erik Bedard taking on Wei-Yen Chen. I believe Chen is the better pitcher and that Baltimore has the greater odds of scoring runs against a lefty when you factor in the fact that they are 8th in OPS vs. LHP compared with Tampa who is 22nd and scoring less than 3 runs overall on the road vs. LHP and overall. Baltimore is 7th in OPS over the last 7 days due to the fact that Nelson Cruz has heated up Cruz among Chris Davis and Adam Jones are 17-46 against Bedard as Bedard has not had success against the Orioles at all. Orioles are also hitting .292 with 5.28 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP.
Chen has been solid pitcher 3.31 ERA at home 2.79 over his last 3 starts and he's only given up more than 3 ER vs. the Rays 1 time over his last 10 starts as he's held them to a .236 average and a .680 OPS over 140 AB compared with Bedard who in 121 AB has allowed an .869 OPS vs. the Orioles. Orioles also have the advantage in the bullpen right now and have sported a 1.59 ERA over their last 10 overall. Chen has been even better at home posting a 2.63 ERA in his last 4 home starts dating back to 2012 against the Rays. I expect the Rays to struggle again here tonight to score runs which has been the theme for them all year long on the road.
|
06-27-14 |
Oakland A's -162 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
9-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
Oakland As -161 4.5* MLB POD The A's have been on a role and have the best road record of any team in the league. Jesse Chavez has been doing a fantastic job and carries a 2.98 ERA on the road into this match up with a 2.71 overall. Chavez is well rested for 5 days and Oakland had yesterday off so the travel time and idle time really is a wash from a fatigue perspective. Miami on other hand has issues in their bullpen after a 14 inning game last night that should play a factor here tonight. Anthony DeSclafani is not ready for the majors and the Marlins really have not been the same team since they lose Jose Fernandez. Over their last 10 they are scoring just 2.81 runs per 9 overall compared with 5.94 from the A's. Considering the Marlins had to use 5 guys out of their bullpen and the fact that DeSclafani is not the pitcher to go deep in a game at this point in his career gives me a lot of confidence. Oakland is also 37-14 in their last 51 as a favorite 151-200.
|
06-25-14 |
Cleveland Indians -122 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
Indians -121 4.5* MLB POD Opposite play of the day tonight as I'm just not impressed with the Diamondbacks at all. Arizona is 15-29 at home this year and 5-15 in their last 20 as an under dog. Cleveland is very impressive as a road favorite 37-15 in their last 52. Corey Kluber is clearly an under rated starter with a 2.90 xFIP he's one of the better pitchers around, but never seems to get credit. I think he'll be able to put together another quality start and the Indians offense and bullpen is much better than Arizona. Arizona starts Chase Anderson who has not been nearly as impressive as Kluber.
|
06-24-14 |
Cleveland Indians v. Arizona Diamondbacks -124 |
Top |
8-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
Dbacks -123 4.5* MLB POD Justin Masterson has an ERA over 6 on the road and is struggling with his control while Wade Miley has not pitched well is showing signs with his 3.66 ERA over his last 3 starts. Tonight he gets an easier than usual match up against the Cleveland Indians who are ranked 28th vs. LHP and are 2-12 in their last 14 road games vs. LHP. I expect Cleveland to struggle as they are 16-43 in their last 59 inter league road games while the Dbacks are 21-9 in their last 30 as an inter league favorite. Miley who has an ERA of 4.62 actually has pitched better than that with a 3.46 xFIP. His ERA has suffered undoubtedly because of the long ball 1.5 HR/9 won't help your stat line, but facing the Indians who only have 13 HR vs. LHP on the year should help.
|
06-21-14 |
Boston Red Sox v. Oakland A's -140 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
A's -140 5* MLB POD A day off allowed me to come back with a fresh perspective on the league and where we are with our handicapping. Today is not about value it's about who I think has the best shot to win and make us money. Today it's the Oakland Athletics despite the Red Sox throwing out their hard throwing RHP Ruby De La Rosa who is averaging 94.4 mph. The Athletics can handle their bats vs. RHP as they rank among the leaders in the league and they faced Garrett Richards 3x this season who ranks 2nd in average fast ball velocity at 95.9mph. They roughed him up in 2 of his 3 starts and Richards is more polished than De La Rosa is at this point in their careers. Richards allowed 11 ER in 14.2 IP in those two starts and did not get through 1 inning in his only start in Oakland. Ruby De La Rosa comes into this game in an even more difficult situation because it's his first day start and he's facing the Athletics on the road where he has 2 terrible starts against two other top 10 offenses. De La Rosa has not proven that he can pitch on the road or pitch against quality offenses which Oakland absolutely is. Oakland is ranked top 10 in day OPS, overall OPS, vs. RHP OPS, L7 days OPS. De La Rosa is on 4 days, on the west coast and pitching during the day which is more like 3.5 days rest. Worse part about it is that his opponent Jesse Chavez is on 5 days rest.
Chavez has been great and his numbers show that he's not been lucky with a 8.16 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9. He faces the Red Sox who are 26th in OPS on the road, 22nd vs. RHP, 26th in day OPS and 27th over their L7 days. Chavez has a 3.07 ERA on 5 days rest, 2.87 ERA at home, and a 2.55 ERA during 6 day starts this year. What I like most is that Chavez is coming into this start on 5 days rest for the second time while De La Rosa is on his 3rd start on 4 days rest after back to back 100+ pitch efforts and he's a guy trying to prove his worth so I expect him to over pitch a bit here and get hit hard.
|
06-19-14 |
Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -135 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
[b]Nationals -140 3* MLB POD[/b] I'll take a look at the Nationals here and I'm dialing down my confidence rankings, because I always typically struggle at this point of the year.. Both teams struggle to hit right handed pitching and both will face pitchers enjoying great seasons. However, Gavin Floyd is due to start showing his inconsisntencies here soon and the Nationals would be a good match up for that to happen in when they have 91 AB and a .341 average .915 OPS against him. I love the fact that their table setter Denard Span is 17-38 with a .447 average. Floyd showed some signs of coming back down to earth in his last start allowing 4 ER.
For Jordan Zimmermann he's on fire after throwing just 76 pitches in his last start over 8 innings he's given up just 1 ER in his last 3 starts covering 25 innings including a complete game. He comes into this game being on 5 days of rest where he is 13-2 over the last 2 years. He's also held the Braves to a .621 ops. The Braves also don't hold their typical advantage out of the bullpen as the Nationals are nearly under 2 at home compared with the Braves who have a bullpen ERA well over 4 on the road. I wish we grabbed this line earlier in the day, but still feel confident.
|
06-17-14 |
Texas Rangers -111 v. Oakland A's |
Top |
6-10 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
[b]Rangers -114 3.5* MLB POD[/b] This is really my favorite line of the day because it seems like we have every advantage working for us. Yu Darvish is a better pitcher than Tommy Milone and the Rangers are hitting lefties better than Oakland is hitting righties. Raw stats show Darvish with what I like to call their real ERA at 3.15 and 2.96 for xFIP and sIERA. While Milone has been far more lucky with a 4.57 and 4.53. His real ERA is under 3.5 yet the numbers are telling me he should be over 4 based on his stuff. Well the Rangers are hitting better on the road vs. LHP and they nearly double their output overall vs. LHP compared with RHP. Over 6 runs per 9 on the road and over 11 over their last 10 games overall for some impressive numbers.
Both pitchers are similar in the fact that they are fly ball pitchers who will benefit from Oakland's stadium layout. Both pitchers are on 5 days rest which is usually a positive, but these pitchers actually pitch worse on extra rest. Overall I think the line should be more around 1.3 - 1.4 given how much Darvish is better than Milone and how well the Rangers hit lefties giving us value on our dollar.
|
06-15-14 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Houston Astros +148 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
[b]Astros +148 4* MLB POD[/b] The Astros get some pretty decent value on Sunday at home as they face off against the Rays who are 1-11 in their last 12 road games but they will throw out David Price who has pitched well this season, but has been a bit unlucky. I think Price is put in tough spot pitching during the day where he carries a 5.25 ERA against the Astros who are ranked 2nd in OPS during day games this year. Price is on extra rest but the Rays are 2-9 in his last 11 starts on 5 days rest and he carries a 4.59 ERA during 5 starts on 5+ days rest this year. The Astros are also ranked 9th in OPS vs. LHP compared to 18th for the Rays against RHP. Astros are hitting right now .293 with 5.24 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home and .289 / 8.50 in their last 10!
Brad Peacock is the weak link to this match up, but when you look at his match ups this season he has had to face 6 of the 9 opponents all in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP. Now he gets to face the Rays whoa re struggling ranking 18th, but 27th during day games. I think Houston has the advantage in this one and they are big under dogs look for Houston who has won 15 of their last 21 games to take the series on Sunday!
|
06-14-14 |
Los Angeles Angels -108 v. Atlanta Braves |
Top |
11-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
Angels -105 4.5* MLB POD The Angels lost last night 3-4 to the Braves and I think it's a good opportunity to bet them to bounce back. They are afterall 43-20 in their last 63 inter league road games which is quite impressive. It's not easy to win on the road when the rules change, but Garrett Richards and the Angels seem up to it on Saturday night. Richards has two quality road starts in inter league play so batting 2-3 times has not thrown his game off a bit as he carries an ERA nearly under 2 on the road this year. The Braves have never faced him and I think it's going to be particularly difficult when you consider they are 26th in OPS vs. RHP and scoring just 3.04 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP compared to over 6 vs. LHP. Richards is also the type to give the Braves issues he can strike guys out and on the year he's only allowing 0.22 HR/9. The Braves often have to rely on the long ball and their bullpen to win close games, but their bullpen has also been struggling.
Braves will send Gavin Floyd to the mound who is thriving in the National League, but his numbers are not as good as they are on paper. He's been lucky to face the Rockies twice without 3 of their starters and the other 5 opponents all rank outside the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP. The Angels are 8th and they have 115 AB against him with a .330 average and 1.0530 OPS. I think the Angels are just playing better baseball as the Braves pitching is typically their advantage it is not right now as their bullpen has struggled posting a 5.67 ERA over their last 10 games.
|
06-13-14 |
Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -132 |
Top |
7-4 |
Loss |
-132 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
[b]Giants -130 4* MLB POD[/b] The Rockies are 27-57 in their last 84 road games and 16-36 in their last 52 in San Francisco. This season is the same story as previous seasons. They have injuries and their bullpen is bad ranked 27th in the league and carry a 7.76 ERA over their last 10 games. They also don't have the match up on the mound as they have struggled to hit RHP and Tim Lincecum has been solid at home posting a 3.86 ERA. His numbers are better than De La Rosa who 0-4 in his last 5 stars at AT&T Park with a 8.59 ERA. Lincecum is backed by the #2 bullpen in the league and they post a 1.89 ERA so in a close game the Giants will hold a significant edge here.
|
06-12-14 |
New York Yankees v. Seattle Mariners -111 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-111 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
Mariners -111 4* MLB POD Roenis Elias had a gem at Yankee Stadium n early May and I think he'll repeat considering the Yankees are hitting .208 and scoring 2.20 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. Elias has been pretty solid at home and can actually go deep into a ball game plus the Yankees typically struggle vs. new pitchers they don't have a lot of experience with his raw stats indicate he's on the same level as Chas Whitley who comes in with a 2.42 ERA, but has gotten luck by strength of schedule.
Whitley has faced 5 opponents and their rankings vs. RHP in OPS are as follows - 29th, 27th, 20th, 25th, and 11th. The 11th placed team is the Minnesota Twins who don't exactly scare you. Seattle is not a big name out there either but over their last 10 games they are hitting .290 with 5.77 runs per 9. The bigger difference in this game is the fact that Seattle has the better bullpen by a long way. They have a 6 run advantage over their last 10 games in ERA out of the pen and on the season Seattle is ranked 5th while the Yankees are 24th.
|
06-10-14 |
Atlanta Braves -130 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
13-10 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
Braves -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b] I don't often like road favorites but this one makes a lot of sense to me. Mike Minor is pitching on top of his game and is on an extra day of rest and has 4 of 5 quality starts vs. the Rockies. Juan Nicasio has 3 of 5 5 disaster starts against the Braves and really has not pitched well at all. His biggest issue is the home run ball 1.60 per 9 and the Braves thrive on home runs. The bullpens are not contest the Braves have a better bullpen and the Rockies offense which is typically better has hist .246 with 2.81 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Cuddyer, Arenado, and Cargo all out of the line up and Justin Morneau is 3-32. Colorado is 7-20 int heir last 27 games and this is another game I think they lose.
|
06-06-14 |
Washington Nationals v. San Diego Padres -121 |
Top |
6-0 |
Loss |
-121 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
[b]Padres -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b] This is really a tough spot for the Nationals after a long home stand they don't get any days off while the Padres come in fresh following a day off. Now they have to fly all the way to San Diego to play a night game with their starting pitcher being on just 4 days rest while Tyson Ross is on 5 days rest. I think we are getting value here considering Tanner Roak pitched a gem the last time out against the Padres 9 scoreless innings. However, he's been another story on the road and during night starts posting 5.65 ERA and 4.72 ERA at night. He's coming off 4 days rest and 100+ pitches. The last time he threw 100 + pitches he followed up with his owrst outing of the year allowing 7 ER. His raw stats are all indicating he's not as good as Tyson Ross who has an xFIP of 3.26 compared to Roak's 4.02.
Padres are at home and the Nationals are 17-39 in their last 56 as a dog 14-38 in their last 52 as a road dog. Ross has a 1.54 ERA in 41 innings at home this year and on 5 days rest over 4 starts in 2014 carries a 1.71 ERA. I'm expecting another 7+ innings of 1 ER or better ball while the bullpen continues to dominate.
|
06-05-14 |
St. Louis Cardinals -108 v. Kansas City Royals |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -113 4* MLB POD Michael Wacha proved it in the post season and he's proving it again posting incredible numbers to start the year. He's even doing it on the road with a 2.51 ERA. Wacha threw 7 innings allowing 1 ER in a start last year against the Royals who are struggling big time to put anything together offensively scoring 4 runs or more in just 4 of their last 10 games and those games were against some suspect starters. The Cardinals will build on their momentum that the offense gave them last night and get to Yordano VEntura who has been impressive, but suffered an elbow injury last time out.. I don't think he's quite 100% and I'll fade him here any way as he has gone 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts after a brilliant start to the season.
|
06-04-14 |
Chicago White Sox +170 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
170 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
[b]White Sox +170 4* MLB POD[/b] Dodgers are dead last in the league against LHP with a .631 OPS and the White Sox offense has been rejuvenated with the Cuban sensation Jose Abreu as they get set to take on Josh Becket. First off John Danks is off back to back dominant starts where he has fixed his control issues where he has an 8:1 K to walk ratio. He's struggled on the road but that has been against all top 20 offenses vs. LHP while the Dodgers are last as I mentioned before. Despite his overall numbers Danks actually has quality starts in 7 of his 10 starts this year and he has a 2.08 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers and a 3.26 ERA in 23 career starts in interleague play.
The Dodgers are at a 1.63 runs per 9 disadvantage based on the pitchers and I think it's more when we take a look at Josh Beckett. Beckett has over exceeded to start this year thus his value and the value when he pitches is on the opponent which I'll take in this spot. Beckett threw a no hitter just 1 start ago and comes in on 4 days rest for the second game in a row following that taxing no hitter where he threw 128 pitches. I took a look back at pitchers who threw a no hitter or perfect game over the last two seasons who had 2 or more starts after their gem and in each case they all struggled to go deep and pitch a quality start. Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey and Felix Hernandez combined over 14 starts following their gem performance for a 4.97 ERA while averaging just 6 1/2 innings of work. Tons of value on this play when you combine the fact that the Dodgers have struggled vs. LHP all year and both bullpens are middle of the road.
|
06-02-14 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres -114 |
Top |
10-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
[b]Padres -117 4.5* MLB POD[/b] The Padres have pretty much owned the Pirates over the last few years going 35-14 in their last 53 overall meetings. The Pirates main issue for tonight's game is that they have to play in a pitcher friendly park and they won't have the advantage in the bullpen that they normally do as the Padres are 2nd in the league with a 2.27 ERA out of their bullpen while they post an overall 2.62 ERA at home. Tim Stauffer will make the start for the 3rd time this year. He was in the bullpen earlier in the year and all of last year, but following his last start where he was shelled for 7 ER I think he bounces back here. He only threw 37 pitches and comes into the year with a 3.43 xFIP and a 3.40 sERA which are both better than Charlie Morton who has a 4.24 xFIP.
The Pirates are also not hitting on the road .220 average vs. RHP and just 3.06 runs per 9. The Pirates have scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their last 8 games while the Padres have scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9. I've never liked Charlie Morton on the road and I don't see how he would have the advantage here tonight as the Padres are +2.5 runs per 9 vs. RHP compared with the Pirates over their last 5 and +1.78 over their last 10.
|
06-01-14 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Arizona Diamondbacks -134 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-134 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
|
05-30-14 |
Detroit Tigers v. Seattle Mariners -120 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
Mariners -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b] Play of the day here as most are going to be on Verlander as a dog which rarely happens, but he has not been himself with an ERA over 4 on the year and a 1.514 WHIP. Over his last 10 starts vs. the Mariners he is just 3-7 posting a 4.67 over his last 5 at Safeco Field. Iwakuma on the other hand has been on fire and is 26-12 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.077 WHIP over his three years as a starter and he's been flawless against the Tigers in his 2 career starts with 14 shutout innings.
Starting pitching is just a portion of the match up and the Mariners own the bullpen advantage with a 3.11 ERA compared with the Tigers 4.48 and over the last 10 games it's even more of an advantage 2.19 compared to 5.62.
|
05-30-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -133 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-133 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
[b]Blue Jays -134 2.5* MLB PLAY[/b] Yesterday we had the Jays as our POD and they cooled off a bit, but I expect them to bounce back as R.A. Dickey is a risky pitcher to back, because if he does not have it he implodes a bit.. He did not pitch his worst game, and the Jays still stayed hot with the bats, but lost in extras. I fully expect the Royals to go back to struggling and the Jays to bounce back following a loss and stay hot with the bats. I think 1 loss has definitely given us a bit of value here on Friday.
|
05-29-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -130 |
Top |
8-6 |
Loss |
-130 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
[b]Blue Jays -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b] The Blue Jays are in a good spot here and although it seems like they don't have the pitching advantage I think they do. R.A. Dickey has been lights out at home posting a 2.89 ERA and now he faces the Royals who are 25th in OPS vs. RHP on the year, Toronto is 2nd. Toronto has a .882 OPS over the last 7 days while KC has been ice cold coming in at .571. Over the last 10 days the Royals bullpen has struggled posting a 4.71 ERA which was a strength before is now a weakness while the Jays have a 3.08 ERA. In 2 starts last year RA Dickey posted two quality starts once at home and another on the road with a 1.88 ERA.
|
05-25-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -156 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
Angels -156 4.5* MLB POD[/b] We took the Angels in game 1 of this series and they rewarded us we take another look at them here in game 3 and I think we get some value even at this price. Why? Basically Garrett Richards who has pitched well all year has struggled at home he's got a great ERA on the road but an ERA over 5 at home while Jason Vargas has the same as he's posting an ERA under 2 in 4 road starts, but a closer look at Vargas and he's faced offensive challenged teams with OPS ranks of 23rd, 3rd, 29th, and 22nd. The Angels are hitting the ball well right now and rank 5th vs. LHP.
The other reason I like the Angles here is that the Royals are 30th in pitch value offense vs. the fast ball. Richards throws a smoker averaging 95 mph and he uses 72% of the time which is fine by me in this spot against the Royals who are struggling scoring just 3.39 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10. The Angels bullpen had gotten off to a slow start as well but right now they are the main reason they have won 8 of 11 posting a 2.64 ERA. I like the Angels and we will look to continue our streak in MLB.
|
05-24-14 |
St. Louis Cardinals -114 v. Cincinnati Reds |
|
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -112 4.5* MLB POD Typically I would fade the Cardinals vs. a LHP but the reds are every bit bad vs. LHP as the Cardinals and right now they are even worse scoring just 2.95 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games overall playing 7 of those without Joey Votto. They will have to face Jaime Garcia who is 9-2 in 13 career starts with a 2.95 ERA holding the Reds hitters to a .644 OPS over 172 ABs. Garcia after 1 start looks solid as his velocity is up and his control was excellent with 0 BB's over 7 innings of work.
Tony Cingrani is averaging nearly 5 BB's per 9 innings and has been a bit lucky with a 83% LOB percentage that I think will start to change. Bottom line I'm going to go with the better overall team in the Cardinals following a loss where they are 36-15 in their last 51 following a loss. The Reds are also struggling to hit without Votto ranked 27th in the last 7 days in OPS compared with the Cardinals who are 6th. Advantage to the Cardinals bullpen as well. This is a short price for all of those advantages.
|
05-23-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -153 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
ANGELS -153 5* MLB POD
I rarely play games at this price, but I think the value is right with C.J. Wilson on extra rest going up agaisnt Duffy who has a 1.42 ERA which is bringing this line down a bit. Duffy has faced two of the worst hitting teams vs. LHP and now he faces the Angels who are 8th in OPS and scoring more than a run and a half more runs per 9 innings than the Royals are vs. LHP. Duffy may have the 0.83 WHIP and 1.42 ERA but he's walking nearly 4 guys per 9 and has had struggles throughout his career with his control. His xFIP suggests his ERA should be in the mid 4's and I agree as I believe that his luck of .162 average with balls in play is bound to come back to the mean.
CJ Wilson on the other hand has pitched great this year and posts a 3.22 xFIP and he gets to face the Royals who are ranked 25th in OPS vs. LHP. He's held the royals to a .669 OPS in 98 AB! Wilson has an extra day of rest where he's been very good at home. The entire Angels team had yesterday off and are 36-17 in their last 53 following an off day!
|
05-21-14 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Pittsburgh Pirates -114 |
Top |
8-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
Pirates -109 4* MLB POD[/b] The Pirates have been decent at home and have the better bullpen, but what I like the most in this spot is the advantage they have on the mound. Chris Tillman has been a consistently good pitcher, but he comes off a complete game shutout which in which he threw a ton more pitches than he's used to. That usually does not bode well for a starting pitcher in their next start. Tillman has already struggled following a game where he threw 115+ pitches this year when he allowed 7 in his next outing. The Orioles will face Wandy Rodriguez and are 25th in the league in OPS vs. LHP.
|
05-20-14 |
Seattle Mariners -107 v. Texas Rangers |
Top |
6-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
Mariners -108 4* MLBPOD [/b] The Mariners have the better pitcher, the better bullpen and the better offense. Iwakuma has been dominant posting xFIP and TERA's under 3. He does not give up home runs and he does not walk batters which are two things the Rangers rely on those ingredients to win games and I just don't see where they have a significant edge even at home because they are only scoring 3.5runs per 9 vs.RHP. This is not the same team as last year and they deserve to be favorites here tonight.
|
05-19-14 |
Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians +105 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
[b]Indians -108 4* MLB POD[/b] I like the Indians at home as I think Drew Smyly 2.70 ERA on the season is a bit misleading with his tERA at 4.27. Corey Kluber comes in with a 3.38 ERA, but now he's favored, but I still think we get value here since his tERA is 2.64 and he also has a 2.68 xFIP which are more indicative of where his ERA should be. Kluber has always been a strong pitcher at home and he had 3 quality starts against the Tigers last year at home and I see no reason why that should not happen again tonight. Kluber will also be backed by a bullpen that's a tad bit better in ERA than the Tigers on the season so far.
Cleveland is also 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a LH starter, 43-20 in their last 63 as a home favorite and 17-8 in Klubers last 25 starts. Don't underestimate the Tigers just not getting up for this game after sweeping Boston in Boston over the weekend. It is a Monday game and I don't feel like they really fear the Indians, but the Indians really need a win here badly and I believe they will produce it.
|
05-18-14 |
Chicago White Sox v. Houston Astros -112 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
Astros -111 4* MLB POD[/b] The Astors are playing well right now and I like their match up against John Danks at home on Sunday.. The Astros have hit him well int he past and over their last 5 games they are hitting .395 vs. LHP and scoring 6.23 runs per 9 and their bullpen is pitching great with a 1.02 ERA. For the White Sox they definitely hit RHP, but today I think they get a bad match up because Peacock's strength is striking out guys. He's got 9.16K/9, so even if he has guys on base he can strand them against the White Sox who lead the league in strike outs.
|
05-17-14 |
San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -119 |
Top |
8-5 |
Loss |
-119 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
|
05-15-14 |
G2 San Diego Padres -111 v. G2 Cincinnati Reds |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
PADRES -111 4.5* MLB POD I will go with the Padres in this spot.. First of all it's very hard to sweep a double header and the REds have already won game 1. It's even more difficult when you don't have the bullpen depth that the opponent has as the Reds bullpen has posted some poor numbers this year 8.44 ERA over their last 5 games and a 4.47 overall at home while the Padres come in with a 2.14 ERA on the road.
Padres also hit lefties much better this year and are scoring over 3 more runs vs south paws on the road while the Reds have struggled at home vs. RHP. Padres continue to swing the bats well vs. LHP scoring 7.71 R/9 over their last 10 combined while carrying a .320 average over that time period. Tyson Ross > Jeff Francis who makes his first start this year. Francis does not have good numbers against the Padres
|
05-14-14 |
Cleveland Indians -101 v. Toronto Blue Jays |
Top |
15-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
Indians -101 4.5* MLB POD
There is tremendous value here on the Indians Wednesday night as they send Corey Kluber to the mound who has pitched better than his numbers.. Hidden beneath the surface of an ERA and W/L record are raw stats that are quite impressive including 9.93 K/9, and 2.09 BB/9 it means he has control over his pitches and can strike you out. His xFIP and tERA also suggest that his ERA should be in the 3's. He does go up against a tough line up, but I think he's backed by the better bullpen as well which posts a 3.04 ERA this year compared to the Blue Jays 4.86.
Dustin McGowan has had three rough starts at home and his raw stats do not say anything different with a 5.54 xFIP and a 5.66k/9 to 3.86 BB/9 ratio. He's going up against an Indians team that is very hot right now hitting .312 vs. RHP over their last 5 games and they rank in the top 5 in OPS over the last 7 days and top 10 overall vs. RHP on the season.
|
05-13-14 |
San Diego Padres v. Cincinnati Reds -116 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
Reds -120 4* MLB POD The Padres have start to hit, and that's why we see the line where it is, but I'm still not sold on this team especially on the road. They go up against the always under rated Mike Leake who has pitched well against the Padres comibning for an ERA in the 3's, but last year he gave up just 1 ER in 2 starts. Leake is also on 5 days rest in this spot and the Padres are 30th in OPS vs. RHP, and 30th in OPS on the road. They score just 1.89 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road and are hitting .192. The Reds double that run production at home and now their bullpen is also gotten a jolt with the return of Chapman.
Andrew Cashner will make a start for the Padres and he's really done a 180 the last few starts after a strong season start.. He still posts a 1.67 ERA at home, but a 5.00 on the road which is nothing new when looking at his last 3 years of production he posted a ERA that was 1.37 higher on the road than at home. The Padres are also 1-5 in their last 6 visits to Cinci and 2-8 in their last 10 games with Cashner as a dog.
|
05-12-14 |
New York Mets v. New York Yankees -148 |
Top |
9-7 |
Loss |
-148 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
Yankees -148 4* MLB POD I'm definitely being a square tonight, but that's okay as I think the Yankees have a greater advantage than the oddsmakers are leading on.. First of all Kuroda really has only had 1 bad start and I think the line should be 20-30 points higher so I'll grab the value as I explained in previous inter league match ups the home team always has a great advantage and they do again tonight. Kuroda was dominant last year on 5 days rest and he will be on 5 days rest again tonight where he posted an ERA at home under 2. Kuroda faces the Mets who are 29th in OPS vs. RHP and really struggling of late.
Bartolo Colon will start, but he's posted a 7.23 ERA on the road he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and it's warm in New York tonight. He has not pitched well at this stadium and he has not pitched well against these hitters. I expect the Yankees to get a few runs off Colon which should be plenty. Jeter and Beltran both carry an OPS over 1.000 against Colon while others have very respectable numbers to combine for a team 368 AB .299 average and 1.030 OPS. The Yankees typically struggle against pitchers they have not seen before, but Colon has been around the block and throws more fast ball by % than any other starter so he's not hard to figure. Yankees are 47-23 in their last 70 home inter league match ups vs. RH starter and I look for win #48.
|
05-11-14 |
Washington Nationals +120 v. Oakland A's |
Top |
1-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
Nationals +120 3* mlb pod
|
05-09-14 |
St. Louis Cardinals -120 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Top |
4-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -120 4.5* MLB POD The value with Wacha here who has posted a 1.90 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road is just too much for me to pass up with the Cardinals bullpen posting an ERA under 3 over their last 10 games. I typically will fade the Cardinals against a LHP and Liriano has posted solid numbers against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals made acquisitions to address their inability to hit lefties last year and they have started to finally pay off. They're ranked 28th but were dead last vs. LHP as of last week in OPS, and over their last 10 games they have a .304 average and are scoring 6.23 r/9 vs. LHP.
Francisco Liriano has struggled in two starts this year as Johny Peralta is 13-40 career, Matt Adams and Yadier Molina combine for 5-8 this season alone. Liriano has not put up good numbers 1.50 WHIP at home and his velocity is down.. He has a tERA of 4.49 and is walking over 4 guys per 9. The Pirates are 7-17 in their last 24 vs. a RH starter.. take the Cardinals.
|
05-08-14 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays -121 |
Top |
6-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
Blue Jays -121 4.5* MLB POD
Two veteran pitchers take the mound for today's match up in Toronto as R.A. Dickey looks to continue his streak of quality starts as he takes on A.J. Burnett who looks to continue his great year as he posts an ERA nearly under 2. Head to head Dickey has 7 of 10 quality starts against the Phillies over his last 10 while Burnett has given up 5 or more ER in 3 of last 4 starts in Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are a combined 12-28 off him with 5 HR. The Blue Jays offense is also starting to click scoring 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games compared with just 3 for the Phillies. The Phillies bullpen has not been very good and I expect Burnett to struggle on 4 days rest on the road facing the Blue Jays who are ranked 3rd in OPS vs. RHP this season which is the best offense Burnett has faced. Burnett did not go past 6 innings in the majority of his road starts on 4 days rest last year and now he has to face 9 real hitters being in an AL park where he struggled for years with the Yankees.
R.A. Dickey is a streaky pitcher and when his control is right he will dominate and almost always give you a chance to win. The biggest issues that Dickey runs into when he struggles is control and the Phillies are 22nd in BB's and they only have 5 BB's in 103 AB against him. Dickey who is walking 5 guys per 9 on the year has reduced those numbers significantly at home with a 2.42 BB/9. A.J. Burnett will have the more challenging task and his raw numbers suggest he's been lucky to be where he is stat wise as his xFIP 3.87, and tERA 4.60 suggest. Blue Jays are a run better vs. RHP ranking 3rd in OPS compared to the Phillies 25th and are the hotter team offensively right now while the bullpen is in Toronto's advantage as they are fresher right now and their ERA is about a run lower in H/A splits. Once again I'll roll with the home team in an interleague battle as Toronto is 10-4 in their last 14 home games in interleague play.
|
05-07-14 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Boston Red Sox -142 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -142 4* MLB POD
I have had my struggles this year betting on or against the Red Sox, but I feel like they are about to get hot winning 3 of their last 4 games now and facing an over rated Reds team. I always like betting the home team in interleague play. I think the AL offense has a tremendous advantage and the NL pitching will have an advantage at home. First of all NL teams are not used to putting a quality bat out there for the extra hitter and when the AL team travel their hitter is put in an uncomfortable position of having to hit which can screw with his mentality when he goes onto the mound. Tonight we are betting the AL home team.
Boston will send Jake Peavy to the mound on extra rest tonight which has been a very good thing. Dating back to last season Peavy has 9 straight quality starts on 5 or more days rest when he's at home posting a 2.47 ERA combined. He's got great success against the Reds posting a 2.14 ERA over 10 career starts. Reds hitters have a combined 71 AB, .183 avg, and .445 OPS vs. Peavy who always seems to pitch like the old Peavy when his arm is fresh.
Mike Leake has been a quality pitcher throughout his career he will not wow you but he's consistent and has been consistently good on the road. However, now he has to face an extra hitter and the Red Sox offense seems to be coming around as Dustin Pedroia gets hot. The Red Sox are 77-31 in their last 108 inter league home games and typically beat up on RHP. Leake on just 4 days rest after pitching his best game in his last start and not getting the win will have a tough time here and he hands it over to a bullpen ranked 24th in ERA another major advantage for the Red Sox.
|
05-05-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. San Diego Padres +111 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
111 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
[b]Padres +107 4* MLB POD[/b] We have a very interesting pitching match up here today with one of the most exciting young pitchers in Yordano Ventura facing off against a very boring LHP veteran Eric Stults. 64% of the public is all over Ventura and the Royals and why not he's #1 in average velocity and has pitched great, but his raw stats are a bit deceiving. He walks over 3 batters per 9 and throws mostly fast balls and he's on 4 days rest yet again so I don't expect the Royals to let him go very deep into this game. What that means is the struggling bullpen will take over. Royals bullpen has an ERA over 5 over their last 10 games while the Padres have a 1.02 ERA at home.
Eric Stults will pitch ahead of that bullpen and he finally gets a start against an easier team. He's faced 5 top 10 hitting teams vs. LHP and now he faces the Royals at home on extra rest who are 29th in OPS vs. LHP scoring just 2.27 runs per 9 on the year. I like my chances with the Padres and their bullpen to really shut down the Royals offense that has been struggling. Stults was very good on 5 days rest last year and is pitching a bit better than numbers indicate. He's 15-5 in his last 20 starts at home and posted a 3.06 ERA over 15 starts a year ago while the Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 at SD.
|
05-02-14 |
New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies -128 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rockies -128 4* MLB POD
I am still not sold on who the Mets send to the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler especially on the road. Not to mention at Coors Field where the Rockies just continue to tear the cover off the ball with arguably their ace on the mound. Jorge De La Rosa is the Rockies most consistent Rockies pitcher, but he has been far more dominant than most realize when you take into consideration that the Rockies are an amazing 42-14 in his last 56 home starts as a favorite. De La Rosa has really been strong his last 3 outings and I think he continues that trend here on Friday night.
|
05-01-14 |
Atlanta Braves -123 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-123 |
23 h 31 m |
Show
|
Braves -123 4.5* MLB POD
The Braves are down 9-0 right now and they lost 9-0 on Tuesday, but I expect them to come back and close out game 3 to avoid a sweep as hot as the Marlins have been at home they are 18-45 in their last 63 game 3's. The Braves also won't have to face another ridiculously hard throwing RHP after facing Nathan Eavoldi and Jose Fernandez back to back Henderson Alvarez who still throws pretty hard is going to be a lot easier. Alvarez just does not have the numbers against the Braves posting a 6.86 ERA in 4 career starts. Freeman, Gattis, Heyward, Johnson and Justin Upton are a combined 18-42 against Alvarez and that gives the Braves a significant advantage when you consider who they have on the mound.
Ervin Santana will make another start and he's putting up fabulous numbers with 10.08 K/9 just 1.63 BB/9 5.9% HR/FB while posting a 1.95 ERA and a 2.21 xFIP. compared with Alvarez who is only striking out 5.46 guys per 9 with 2.73 BB/9 and a 3.64 xFIP along with a 24.2% line drive %. Santana is very solid at night and even better on 5 days rest which he'll be on tomorrow. I expect another quality start from him as he was 12 for 12 on 5 days rest in 2013 posting a 2.18 ERA on 5 days rest. He's handled the Marlins pretty well in his career. The Marlins are 15-37 in their last 52 vs. RH starter 8-22 in their last 30 home vs. the Braves while the Braves are 25-12 in their last 37 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30
|
04-29-14 |
Oakland A's -108 v. Texas Rangers |
Top |
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
[b]A's -110 4* MLB POD[/b] I'm going with the A's here tonight despite how dominant Martin Perez has been, why else would he be an under dog at home? Well it's because he pitches to contact and he'll be pitching in a hitters park here tonight to an Oakland offense that is putting up runs against LHP especially recently. I expect Perez will give up a few, but I expect Scott Kazmir to continue what he's been doing which is getting swings and misses. Kazmir has one of the best raw stats in the league since the season has started and he has certainly revitalized his career it seems. He's getting a ton of swings and misses and has allowed just 11% line drive rate compared with Perez's 15.7%. Perez xFIP is at 3.57, and he does not have nearly the same K/BB ratio that Kazmir has put up with 31K's and just 6 BB's. I look for Kazmir to continue the success he's found early in this season and for Perez to start to come back to what he should be.
|
04-26-14 |
Cincinnati Reds +113 v. Atlanta Braves |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
[b]Reds +112 3* MLB POD[/b] Just one play today and we will go with the Reds who have the pitching advantage on the mound as the Braves send the young David Hale to the mound. Hale has pitched poorly against two of the worst offenses in the league in the Mets and Nationals against RHP. The Reds are 14th, but their offense gets better as the game goes along which I like a lot in these type of close games as the Reds are 4th in OPS after the 7th inning. Hale throws mostly fast balls and is walking far too many guys right now and is likely to be replaced in the rotation when Minor returns.
Mike Leake on the other hand is always flying under the radar, but he's been very solid on the road throughout his career posting a 3.36 ERA in road starts over the last 3 years spanning 41 starts while he's also got a 3.47 ERA during 58 night starts overall which he'll make tonight. Leake goes up against a HR dependent team in the Braves and he does not give up many home runs himself, less than 1 HR per 9 over the last 2 seasons. Leake in 4 starts this year has an ERA over 3, but he has a 0.99 WHIP and I think he's pitched better than numbers indicate which have made him a dog today. He's also got a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Braves over the last 3 years and in 2 career starts at Turner Field has only allowed 2 ER. The Reds bullpen is starting to come around and while the Reds lost 4-5 last night they are 60-21 in their last 81 games after they allowed 5 or more runs in the previous game.
|
04-25-14 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -101 v. St. Louis Cardinals |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-101 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
Pirates +100 2* play[/b] The Pirates have the betters starting pitcher on the mound tonight, the better bullpen and the better match up in my opinion as the Cardinals are 27th vs. the FB this year and will go up against one of the best fast ball pitchers in the game. Cole pitched well with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP against the Cardinals over 3 starts last year and he'll face a Cardinals team that is hitting under .200 and scoring just 1.60 runs per 9 over their last 5 games. Cole is averaging 95.5 mph on his fast ball and should hold an advantage over Shelby Miller who is also a hard throwing RHP.
However, MIller has a 5.93 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in 5 career starts vs the Pirates. Miller has struggled big time in his second season by walking 5.56 guys per 9 innings. It's hard to figure since he's throwing 73% of his pitches as fast balls that he still is having such control issues. Either way I like the fact that the Pirates have so much success against him with a .287 average and a .957 OPS over 87 AB.
|
04-25-14 |
Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins +112 |
Top |
10-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
Twins +112 4* MLB POD If I asked you whose offense was better right now you'd say the Tigers without blinking, but that's why we get some nice value here on the Twins who should be favored. The Twins are 3rd in OPS vs. RHP on the year while the Tigers are 15th. They'll start an old reliable veteran in Kevin Correia who will always keep his team in the game. Correia had 3 starts vs. the Tigers a year ago posting a 2.18 ERA over 3 starts and has all quality starts against this Tigers team in his career. He has just 1 bad start this year and that was at home to the Athletics who are ranked 4th in offense. Correia overall hada 3.35 ERA in 16 starts at home last year and I expect him to pitch well tonight since he's on extra rest which he recorded 7 of 8 quality starts at home last year with a 2.96 ERA. He's held the Tigers in check an OPS under .700 while the Tigers are only scoring 3.06 runs per 9 on the road. Minnesota is also backed by the better bullpen by over 2 runs in ERA.
Rick Porcello is on 4 days rest and has to face the #3 offense in the league vs. RHP they are scoring 6.22 runs per 9 vs. RHP and he's backed by a bullpen posting a 5.62 ERA. In 149 AB the Twins have a .322 average and a .896 OPS against Porcello.
|
04-24-14 |
New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox -115 |
|
14-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 37 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -115 4* MLB POD
I will take the home team with the better pitching in this one. The Yankees will also be busy answering questions about Pineda's pine tar incident from yesterday's match up, but I expect Boston to be focused to win this game as they are 18-3 in Felix Doubrant's last 21 game 3's. Felix Doubrant does not have great numbers against the Yankees, but they are better than his opponent and he's backed by the 3rd best bullpen in the league while Sabathia is backed by the 22nd. Doubrant had a 3.84 ERA here at home last year and has faced multiple top 10 offenses already this year while Sabathia has not faced a team inside the top 15 all year.
Sabathia in his last 12 starts vs. Boston has a 6.48 ERA and he carries a 7.41 ERA in his last 6 at Fenway over the last 3 years. Sabathia is not walking guys but again he's faced some of the worst hitting teams in the young season and has still struggled. His fastball is down nearly 3mph on average and I just think the Red Sox are poised to go on a little winning streak here as they are 17-5 in their last 22 games vs. LH starter while the Yankees are 4-9 in Sabathia's last 13 vs. the Red Sox.
|
04-23-14 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. New York Mets +131 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
131 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
[b]Mets +130 3* play[/b] This is the third day in a row we are backing and under dog.. Maybe the third time is a charm because the last two teams we backed were unable to hold a lead. I simply am fading the Cardinals offense who continues to struggle vs. LHP. This dates back to last year when they ranked 26th in OPS vs. LHP. Jonathan Niese is a capable LHP who is off to a nice start and I think he will have a higher probability to pitch a better game than Michael Wacha, because the Cardinals are 30th with a .497 OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 1.42 runs per 9 on the road vs. LHP.
The Mets are not much better ranking 30th in OPS vs. RHP, but have a .601 OPS and are scoring over 3 runs per 9 at home vs RHP so it is an advantage worth backign with the Mets as a significant under dog here tonight. Both bullpens are nothing special ranking 21st and 22nd with identical ERA's of 4.31 and 4.32, but the Mets will be at home tonight and the Cardinal are just 1-7 in their last 8 games on the road vs LH starters. Tonight's umpire is Marty Foster and the home team is 22-10 in his last 32 behind the plate vs. the Cardinals.
|
04-22-14 |
Baltimore Orioles +125 v. Toronto Blue Jays |
Top |
3-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
Orioles +125 4* MLB POD There is simply too much value on the Orioles in this spot. First of all their bats came alive as they scored 22 runs in their last series and I think that will carry over to Toronto where they will face R.A. Dickey. Dickey always seems to struggle in the beginning of the season and he has yet to find his groove at home since being acquired by the Blue Jays posting a 4.80 ERA last year. Dickey will be on 4 days rest and in his 3 starts last year vs. the Orioles he had a 7.86 ERA. Baltimore comes into this game swinging the bat well 6.39 runs per 9 over their last 5 vs. RHP and a .305 average. Toronto meanwhile can not claim the same thing as they carry a .228 average and 3.46 runs per 9 over their last 5 vs. RHP.
Miguel Gonzalez will make the start for the Orioles and he's very capable on the road posting a 3.50 ERA on the road over the last 3 years combined. He's had great success in this Stadium posting 2.45 ERA in 3 starts last year here and a 2.30 ERA overall in his 5 starts vs. the Jays a year ago. What impresses me the most about Gonzalez was his ability to keep his team in the game on the road especially when he was on 5 days rest where he posted 8 of 8 quality starts on 5 days rest and posted a 2.82 ERA. I like the advantage Baltimore has in the bullpen as well of late and overall so I think the Orioles have the edge here and not the Blue Jays who feature a big name pitcher being over valued.
|
04-21-14 |
Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's +107 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 15 m |
Show
|
Oakland A's +107 4.5* MLB POD Yu Darvish is the reason the Oakland A's are under dogs here at home and the Rangers better hope he goes like 8 innings because their bullpen has been just terrible posting an ERA over 7 on the road compared to the A's 2.25 ERA at home. Oakland is also scoring 1.53 more runs per 9 vs. RHP overall and are 69-31 in their last 100 home games vs. a RH starter! Yu Darvish is 1-6 vs. the A's and in his two road starts he has an ERA over 9 and a WHIP over 2 vs. the A's who are swinging some hot bats nearly 7 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5. I don't see Darvish being able to go deep into this game considering he's on his 3rd start in a row on 4 days rest after throwing over 100 pitches in his last two. Meanwhile...
Dan Straily is on 5 days rest and is 8-2 in his last 10 on 5 days rest. He had two starts a year ago against the Rangers on 5 days rest and allowed only 2 ER in both road games over 12.1 IP. Overall he's held them to a .195 average and a .529 OPS and on 5 days rest a year ago he had 12 of his 13 starts where he allowed no more than 3 ER and overall carried a 2.76 ERA. Straily numbers wise is off to a tough start but I still like his potential as he's striking out nearly 4 more batters than he's walking which will produce good results over the long term. I like the price and I'll take the A's here tonight.
|
04-20-14 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -152 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -152 4.5* MLB POD On the eve of the Boston Marathon the Red Sox get a Sunday night baseball game and I expect this crowd to be alive knowing they have Monday off. I think they have a huge advantage on the mound tonight with Ubaldo Jimenez taking toeing the rubber for the Orioles. Jimenez is not the best in April posting a 6.05 ERA over the last three years. He's off to another terrible start posting a 7.31 ERA in three starts while his counterpart Jake Peavy is posting a 1.93 ERA this year. More on Jimenez though as he posts a 9.21 ERA in 6 career starts vs. the Red Sox while carrying a 1.97 WHIP. He also has a 4.89 ERA over the last 3 years on the road over 50 road starts.
Jake Peavy on the other hand has held the Orioles in check over 79 combined at bats he's held them to a .190 average and a .581 OPS and carries a 2.45 ERA over the last 3 years in April starts. He has 2 starts vs. the Orioles over the last two years and has gone 7 innings of quality pitching in both posting an ERA under 3. There will be heavy hearts at Fenway tonight and Ted Barret will be behind the plate and home teams are 31-15 in his last 51 while Boston is 29-14 and the Orioles are 3-13 combining for a 71% angle.
|
04-19-14 |
Chicago White Sox v. Texas Rangers -115 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
Rangers -115 4* MLB POD
The Rangers won yesterday 12-0 behind their offense and major advantage out of the bullpen. Traditionally I will start with the starting pitchers and the offense in my analysis, but today I"m starting with the bullpens which Texas holds a major advantage. The Whitesox bullpen has been atrocious with a 6.29 ERA and a 6.62 ERA in road games while Texas comes in with a stellar 2.12 bullpen ERA at home and a 0.00 ERA over their last 5 overall out of the bullpen. The Whitesox got off to a strong start, but have slowed down of late and their offense is struggling. Over the last 5 they are scoring just 2.02 runs per 9 with an average under .200 while the Rangers are over .300 and scoring over 6 runs per 9 over their last 5. However, the biggest differences that separate these teams today is not the offense nor the starting pitching but the bullpen.
The White Sox are also 17-48 in their last 65 road games while Texas is 21-7 in their last 28 vs. a losing team.. We get value here because Colby Lewis was not very good in his first start, but facing the White Sox offense at the right time. Also he's held them to 2 ER over the last 3 years in 2 starts covering 15 IP. Lewis has been a solid pitcher at home over the past few years and not many pitchers can claim that pitching in Arlington. Jose Quintana who has been great so far had 5 innings of work and 4 ER in last years meeting here. He also faces a Rangers line up that is ranked 8th vs. LHP on the season and is scoring 5.77 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the year. I'm going with the Rangers as the White Sox just seem to be heading to a deep slump.
|
04-18-14 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Cleveland Indians -140 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-140 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
CLEVELAND INDIANS -140 5* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY
Today's play of the day is on the Cleveland Indians as I love the spot they are in against the Blue Jays. First let's take a look at Justin Masterson who is backed by a bullpen that is nearly a run better in ERA on the year. Masterson has struggled in back to back starts, but he's coming back home on 5 days rest where he has been absolutely dominant over his last 6 starts dating back to 2012 posting just 3 ER over 40.2 IP for a 0.66 ERA. He's also got solid numbers against the Blue Jays with 5 of his 6 starts being quality posting a 2.79 ERA, but at home he's gone 23 innings in 3 starts posting a 1.57 ERA. Masterson has always been a better starter at home to begin with and he's 12-4 in his last 16 as a favorite. He will face a line up that is coming together nicely, but is still averaging over a run less vs. RHP than the Indians.
Drew Hutchinson has a lot of talent, but he struggles with consistency alternating quality and bad starts. He really struggles vs. left handed hitters and it just happens that the Indians are hitting RHP well over 5.5 runs per 9 and will send 8 left handed batters to the plate tonight. Hutchinson in 3 starts this year is nearly walking 5 guys per 9 and overall he has walked 8.59 guys per 9 vs. LHB. Hutchinson has actually faced 5 batters in the line up who post a 1.258 OPS in limited at bats, but I think even with the juice we are getting good value on tonight's match up.
|
04-16-14 |
Colorado Rockies +139 v. San Diego Padres |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
Rockies +137 4* MLB POD Wow Andrew Cashner comes off just 4 days rest after he pitched the game of his life over the Tigers none the less. He went 9 full innings allowed just 1 hit and 0 ER along with 2 BB's. Cashner was also over 100 pitches for the second game in a row which is never a good thing for a young pitcher that throws 70% of his pitches as fast balls. I'm not saying he's sore or anything, but long term results prove that the majority of pitchers on 5 days rest do better than on 4 days rest. Throw in the monkey wrench of Cashner's terrific start and we have a very high probability for a let down. I also love the fact that Cashner has struggled vs. the Rockies in 81 AB the Rockies have a .346 average and a .964 OPS against him.
Now it goes without saying that the Rockies are not who we thought they were on the road.. Or maybe they are because they never seem to be able to put up many runs on the road. However, the last two games have been decided by 1 run and I like the value we are getting on the Rockies here with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound. De La Rosa has really struggled but now he finds himself in a perfect situation. He's owned the Padres 11-0 in his last 11 starts and has held them to a .671 OPS for active batters. He's 3-0 in his last 4 starts at Petco posting a 1.88 ERA and the Padres are really struggling vs. LHP .169 average on the year with 1.59 runs per 9. De La Rosa is relatively fresh pitch wise despite being on 4 days rest and should be able to go 7 strong innings tonight and carry the lead into the 8th inning.
|
04-15-14 |
St. Louis Cardinals +107 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
107 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
Cardinals +106 4* MLB POD Marco Estrada is off to a great start and so are the Brewers, but I'll take the value I am getting on the Cards here. Estrada has a 2.31 ERA but he has a 3.95 XFIP and is walking 3.86 guys per 9 he's very lucky with a 89.3 left on base percentage. The Cardinals are a very good bunch of hitters and will be able to score with runners on as they are hitting .338 in 130 AB against Estrada with a .918 OPS. In 7s tarts he posts a 6.58 ERA vs. the Cards.
Shelby MIller on the other hand has a 2.03 ERA and the Brewers have a .218 average and .553 OPS in 78 AB. The Brewers have struggled in 7 home games against RHP scoring less than 3 runs per game take the Cards.
|
04-13-14 |
Boston Red Sox -104 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -108 4* MLB POD[/b] The Red Sox do not want to lose 3 of 4 to the Yankees, and I think they are good enough to bounce back as they are 40-16 in their last 56 following a loss. Felix Doubrant will make the start for the Red Sox and he's had more quality starts against the Yankees than his opponent. In 8 starts he posts a 4.20 ERA against the Yankees and has held them to a .712 OPS in 86 AB. He's also pitched better in April compared with Nova who has struggled so I trust him a bit more to bounce back. I also trust the Red Sox bullpen just a bit more than the Yankees at this point.
Ivan Nova has a 5.74 ERA over the last three years in April and right now he carries an ERA over 8 and a 2.25 WHIP into the game. Nava, Ortiz, and Pedroia are a combined 14-38 against Nova who struggles with his location early in the season. The Red Sox have a .849 OPS in 81 AB against him. Nova is also giving up a 23.5% line drive percentage and is walking more than 1 runner per 9 than he is striking out which is not a good mix. I also like that Doubrant and the Red Sox are 9-1 in his last 10 Sunday starts.
|
04-13-14 |
Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners +126 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
2** PLAY
|
04-13-14 |
Detroit Tigers v. San Diego Padres +140 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
140 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
2* play
|
04-13-14 |
Colorado Rockies +147 v. San Francisco Giants |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
2* play
|
04-12-14 |
Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -135 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
[b]SF Giants -135 5.5* MLB POD[/b] I believe we are getting tremendous value here in the pitching match up, the bullpen advantage, and the offense. The Rockies value is sky high right now they lead the majors with a .990 OPS, but just like last year that number will shrink on the road especially against good pitching. To put it in perspective the Rockies had a .808 OPS at home last year ranked #3, but on the road they had a .672 OPS ranked 25th. The Rockies also are 14-38 in their last 52 as a road dog and 16-35 in their last 51 when visiting the Giants. They'll face Matt Cain on Saturday...
Matt Cain had an off year last year and we get value because of that along with his rough start to this year. However, all indications look good from his raw stats that he's due for a bounce back year as his velocity looks sharp and his line drive % is down from 22.4 % last year. His issue on the road was the long ball and now he gets to come home to the Giants friendly pitcher park that ranked 28th in HR/9. Matt Cain's overall stats vs. the Rockies are again nothing special when you look at his overall career, but at home he has been solid posting a 2.36 ERA in 34.1 IP with a 1.11 WHIP over the last three years. IN 174 AB they have a combined .689 OPS. Even though the Rockies are off to a fast start hitting their pitcher won't be supported by a bullpen like the Giants who post a 2.25 ERA on the season and a 0.64 ERA at home.
The Rockies bullpen is far more rocky posting a 6.19 ERA on the road and a 4.93 overall. The Giants get to face another lefty in consecutive days in Brett Anderson. The Giants are tearing up LHP ranking 3rd right now in OPS and #1 in BB's. That's big because Brett Anderson as talented as he once was has major control issues and has not looked good this year with a loss in velocity as well. I believe the Giants will work themselves into better pitcher counts and they should get to Brett Anderson and continue their success vs. LHP this year.
|
04-11-14 |
Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -141 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-141 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -138 4* MLB POD This Cardinal team is a tough team to beat at home especially when you are bringing a RH starter to the table which the Cubs are tonight with Jeff Samardzija who over the last 3 years carries a 5.91 ERA at Busch Stadium. The Cardinal hitters have hit him hard in 103 AB they have a .330 average. The Cubs will also face a RH starter which they are 12-40 in their last 50 games parlay that with the Cardinals who are an impressive 45-14 at home over their last 52 games vs. a RH starter and you have a 76% angel here. Jeff Samardzija is also 8-20 in his last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. I like his upside but just not vs. one of the best teams in the NL.
Also Joe Kelly takes the mound for the Cardinals and he has a 3.12 ERA at Busch Stadium in his career and posts a 2.61 career ERA over 30+ innings vs. the Cubs. Cubs hitters have a .586 OPS in 74 AB and the Cardinals bullpen has picked it up posting a 1.98 ERA over their last 5 compared with the Cubs at 5.28.
|
04-11-14 |
Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins +109 |
|
1-10 |
Win
|
109 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
Twins +109 2* bonus[/b] This is almost 100% a fade on Bruce Chen and the Royals bullpen that has a 5.79 ERA on the year and a 7.62 over their last 3 games. Facing the Twins should help, but not tonight as Bruce Chen has a 5.60 ERA in his last 5 starts at Target Field and collectively the Twins have hit him well posting a .881 OPS in 128 AB. He's got a 4.67 ERA over his last 38 road starts and has been known more for his quality pitching at home not on the road. Twins will have a lot of RHB in their line up that should get quality ABs vs. Chen who is 1-10 in his last 11 Friday starts. The Twins also have revenge on their mind after losing 15 of their 19 meetings with the Royals a year ago.
|
04-10-14 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Philadelphia Phillies -118 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
[b]Phillies -117 4.5* MLB POD[/b] The Brewers stock is high they continue to win games, 5 in a row to be exact, while the Phillies have lost 3 in a row. Add that in with Cliff Lee struggling in his season opener and we have a recipe for value. Cliff Lee is still a quality starter and getting him at home at this cheap of a price especially when the Brewers have not faired well against LHP this year scoring over 2 runs fewer than they do against RHP. Cliff Lee did have a rough start out in Texas against an AL team, but pitching back in the NL even against the hot hitting Brewers is much easier.
This is an extremely cheap price for a pitcher that has a 2.84 ERA over the last three years which includes a 2.65 ERA at night. Estrada will make the start vs. the Brewers, but I'm not impressed in his 2 starts vs. the Phillies he has a 2.44 WHIP with a 9.00 ERA and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and it's expecting to be a windy day in Philadelphia today which will be an advantage the Phillies have over the Brewers. Plus the Phillies are 47-22 in their last 69 games following back to back games of allowing 9+ runs.
|
04-09-14 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs +109 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
109 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
Cubs +109 4* MLB POD I'm going to go ahead and go with an under dog for the 4th time this season for my POD's we are 2-1 on the year on POD dogs. I really believe the Cubs have the better starter on the hill in Jason Hammel who is notorious for fast starts with a 3.06 ERA in his last 16 April starts over the last 3 years he also has an ERA of 3.62 in his career against the Pirates and did well his last time out against the Pirates and has held their hitters to a .177 average and a .517 OPS lifetime over 79 total AB's.
I truly believe the Cubs are going to be one of the more improved teams this year and getting them as a home dog at this point with an advantage on the mound is a good thing. They are 2-5 but easily could be 5-2 with 3 of their losses coming by less than 2 runs. Wandy Rodriguez has not won since last May and he will struggle on the road as he always does (4.05 ERA last 3 years). He has a 4.70 ERA in 13 lifetime starts at Wrigley and I think he will struggle here tonight.
|
04-08-14 |
Chicago White Sox v. Colorado Rockies -126 |
|
15-3 |
Loss |
-126 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
Rockies -128 2.5* play[/b] This is more of a fade on the white Sox with a cheap price to pay as the White Sox are 16-46 in their last 62 road games and 3-18 in their last 21 road games vs. a LH starter. The Rockies offense has gotten off to a great start at home and has a .362 average here they are also hitting lefties well. Quintana will start for the White Sox and he's better suited for home starts. Even against the National League where you get to face the pitcher Quintana never got passed the 6th inning a year ago and that means Chicago will have to rely on their bullpen again tonight after going to it in the 5th inning last night. The bullpen is not very good to start compared with the Rockies who have a 0.75 ERA at home out oft heir bullpen. Franklin Morales should also give the White Sox troubles as they struggle vs. LHP.
|
04-08-14 |
Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -137 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
Cardinals -138 4.5* MLB POD The Cardinals have really dominated the Reds at home and have already taken 3 of 4 from them on the season overall, but are 38-17 in their last 55 home games vs. the Reds. Homer Bailey vs. Lance Lynn is already a repeat match up that the Cardinals won on the road and Bailey isn't likely to get his revenge when you look at the fact that he is 1-7 in his last 8 games at Busch. Over the last 3 years he posts a 5.47 ERA here and the Cardinals line up collectively have a .324 average and a .933 OPS in 179 AB. The Cardinals should get there runs here and when you factor in the Reds struggles offensively - .215 average 2.04 runs per 9 vs. RHP well I think this price is a fair price.
Lance Lynn will take the mound he did not look great against the Reds in his first start 5 IP 3 ER, but in his 2 home starts last year he pitched great allowing 2 ER over 13 innings with 15k's to just 3 BB's. Lynn over the last 3 years has a 2.97 ERA at home over nearly 200 IP so it's safe to say he prefers to pitch here combined with a 22-13 record at night with a 3.47 ERA overall. Lynn also has 2.25 ERA in his April starts and I think being back at home will server him well in this match up. Neither team is tearing the cover off the ball, but we have the advantage with the home team as the Cardinals are 39-14 in their last 53, but even more impressive is that they are 44-13 (77% angle) in their last 57 home games vs. a RH starter. If you recall in some of my earlier write ups this season the Cardinals struggled vs. LHP last year and they are again early this season, but against RHP they just flat out dominated and despite losing some offense key pieces I think they added an upgrade in Peralta and Ellis is also a nice piece when they have to face LHP.
|
04-06-14 |
San Francisco Giants +138 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 38 m |
Show
|
Giants +139 2* play I look for the Giants to pull off the sweep right now the only thing that separates these two teams is the offense and the Giants are more clutch right now. The Giants are scoring nearly double the runs compared with the Dodgers and Matt Cain has had great success in this ball park posting a 1.64 ERA in his last 6 starts here going back the last three seasons. Zack Greinke was unable to go deep into his first start and he really did not look sharp so I'm thinking we have plenty of value here to go with the Giants on Sunday night.
|
04-05-14 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -140 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
[b]Pirates -142 4* MLB POD[/b] The Cardinals were 26th in OPS last year vs. LHP and they also got rid of David Freese I do expect them to be a bit better this year in that department with the addition of a few guys, but so far that has not been evident with their .125 average and .399 OPS in 32 AB this year.. It's a small sample, but overall the Cardinals have not hit .191 average and 2.50 runs per 9 compared with the Pirates .238 and 4.14 runs per 9. Not a major advantage but Francisco Liriano will take the mound today for the Pirates and he has a 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts last year and over 3 regular season starts against the Cardinals he went 24 IP and had a 0.75 ERA. He carried that over into the post season with a quality start going 6 innings giving up 2 ER vs. the Cardinals. He will be the better pitcher on the mound on Saturday.
Joe Kelly likely won't hold onto his role as the #5 starter throughout the year, but he can be very good out of the bullpen. He did carry a 2.69 ERA last year, but a lot of it was lucky when you consider his raw stats 5.73 K/9 vs. 3.19 BB/9 and a 82.4 % left on base percentage. The Pirates hitters had a good success off him with a .299 average and .822 OPS, but struggled with runners on. If that happens again today at least we know as of now the Pirates have the better bullpen posting a 1.42 ERA over 19 IP this season after being #3 last year with a 2.89 ERA. The Cardinals on the other hand rank 30th currently with a 9.58 ERA and were not in the top 10 last year. Pittsburgh is 42-19 in their last 61 as a home favorite and the Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 12 visits.
|
04-04-14 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Houston Astros +138 |
Top |
11-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
Astros +138 4* MLB POD The Angels are off to their typical slow start despite having a talented team. They went 9-16 last April and are off to a nice 0-3 start, but we are still catching value fading them and this scenario warrants it yet again as the Angels throw an arm up there in Garret Richards who has plenty of mustard on his fastball, but has the inability to control games and is 2-8 in his last 10 road starts while he has a 4.70 ERA overall on the road. This is not a spot to back the Angels as favorites as Richards gave up 9 ER in just over 12 innings pitched in his two starts vs. the Astros. Both of those were at home where Richards is a better pitcher. The Astros will send 6 lefties out there to face Richards which shapes up well because Richards really really struggles vs. LHB.
For the Astros they will throw out Lucas Harrell hoping his control issues are better and he returns to his 2012 form rather than 2013. Even though he struggled in 2013 he had some quality starts at home and has a 3.82 ERA over the last 3 years at home. He struggled in 2013, but despite all of that he posted a 1.53 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Angels. He did not always go deep into games, but he can hand it off to a bullpen that's pitching well after facing the Yankees.. Much better than the Angels who are last in the league with a 10.80 ERA out of their bullpen.
|
04-04-14 |
Arizona Diamondbacks +125 v. Colorado Rockies |
|
2-12 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
Diamondbacks +125 1* Free Play The Rockies had the 28th ranked bullpen a year ago and they are off to a similar start with an ERA over 8 despite some of the additions. They'll start Juan Nicasio tonight, but don't expect him to go deep into the game. Nicasio has easily averaged over 3BB/9 the last two seasons and he's got an ERA at 5.02 at home over the last 3 years combined. Against the Diamondbacks he posts an 8.05 ERA over 5 starts. Randall Delgado is not great, but his name gives us value here and Colorado has just 37 AB against with a .216 average and a .608 OPS. I will take the value with the Dbacks on Friday night who have beaten the Rockies 4 out of the last 5 times.
|
04-03-14 |
Minnesota Twins +138 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
10-9 |
Win
|
138 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
Twins +138 4* MLB POD I'll go with the Twins to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon. Phil Hughes will take the mound for the first time for the Twins and I think he will have a solid season now that he's not in a pitcher happy park. Hughes has pitched well at US Cellular Field 1.38 ERA and he's allowed a .130 average and a .326 OPS to the White Sox hitters in 69 at bats.
Jose Quintana had a solid year last year with an ERA below 4 and that's why we get such a high line here. Quintana had a 3.62 ERA in his career at US Cellular field, but in 4 starts here vs. the Twins he's got an ERA close to 9 as he's allowed 17 ER in 18.2 IP. The Twins collectively have a 1.027 OPS against Quintana who performs better during night games where he has an ERA nearly a run better than day games. I expect the Twins to be in this game with the lead.
|
04-02-14 |
New York Yankees -155 v. Houston Astros |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-155 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
Yankees -155 4* MLB POD The Yankees are my top play today, I did not expect them to win yesterday with CC on the mound who is clearly not the Yankees ace any longer. Kuroda meanwhile has a 2.99 ERA in April over the last 3 years combined and over that period of time he's got a 0 ERA vs. the Astros in 3 starts. The Yankees will face an inexperienced Cosart with their line up that is built on a veteran group with plenty of offense. I'm expecting a big win from the Yankees who are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. the Astros.
|
04-01-14 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Texas Rangers -136 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
Rangers -136 4.5* MLB POD[/b] Texas lost 14-10 on opening day, but I see them rebounding here. The Phillies put 6 lefties in the line up yesterday including a switch hitter and now they have to face a lefty. I expect some tweaks to the line up because of that, but this is a team that was 22nd in OPS vs. LHP last year and 26th in average. Their line up is basically the same and I don't see anything changing as they will struggle against LH starters. Martin Perez held his own last year with a 3.36 ERA at home which is hard to do in Texas.
AJ Burnett is coming off a great year last year, but opening up on the road and in the AL are not his specialties. Burnett has been a solid pitcher when he's in his own ball park in the NL, but here he has to go on the road where he carries a 4.74 ERA over the last 3 years and face a Rangers team that has had some success against him. Over his last 6 starts in Texas dating back to 2008 he has allowed 18 ER in 34 innings. Both Prince Fielder and Beltre have good numbers against him and I don't think he'll get the run support that Cliff Lee got here on Monday.
|
03-31-14 |
Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles +108 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
108 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
Baltimore Orioles +108 4* MLB POD We are getting a ton of value here on the Orioles hosting the Red Sox. On paper it appears the Red Sox hold a big advantage on the mound, but Chris Tillman has a 2.21 ERA over his last 10 starts vs. the Red Sox and has even held David Ortiz to 1-16 in his career. Combined the Red Sox carry a .181 average and a .509 OPS in 138 AB vs. Tillman. The Orioles have one of the leagues deepest bullpens so I expect whenever Tillman gets into trouble with the lead that the bullpen can come in and dominate.
Lester on the other hand has not pitched well vs. the Orioles he has a 4.02 ERA in his last 9 starts over the last 3 years, but in 3 starts at Camden Yards last year he had a 4.76 ERA. The Orioles won't make things easier for Lester adding Nelson Cruz to the mix who is 10-22 against Lester parlayed with Adam Jones and matt Weiters success and I think the Orioles should be able to get to Lester early. All 3 are relatively fast starters with .800+ OPS in their last 3 Aprils combined.
|
10-30-13 |
St. Louis Cardinals +110 v. Boston Red Sox |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
Cardinals +112 4* MLB POD It's Wacha Wacha time in game 6. This kid has been amazing this post season and I think he'll shine again at Fenway where he just made one mistake in his first start, but still got the win. Wacha was better against the Dodgers the second time around so saying that the Red Sox will figure this kid out probably is not accurate. He's pitched like a veteran with 27 innings and 11 hits this post season. He's got a better raw stat line than John Lackey who starts for Boston. Lackey has been solid this post season, but his tERA of 4.17 on the season does not impress me and he only had 7 quality starts out of 13 total starts on extra rest. He gave up 3 ER to the Cardinals in his first start and he had to pitch an inning of relief on Sunday which would have been his throwing day in between starts. However, the stress and the way you throw out of the bullpen in the World Series is different and I think that will have some sort of impact, because pitchers are creatures of habit and what Lackey had to do on Sunday was out of the ordinary. Plus I think this Cardinal team is a resiliant bunch and they won't be spooked by Boston in game 6. They are 48-21 in their last 69 following a loss and 11-4 following an off day. They also are 75-36 in their last 111 vs. RH starter.
|
10-26-13 |
Boston Red Sox -102 v. St. Louis Cardinals |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
Red Sox +102 4* MLB POD When looking at this match up you will break down stats and pitching match ups until you are blue in the face. Both of these teams are very comparable and it's a good reason why they are playing in the world series to begin with. Both teams were tops in their league vs. RHP which they'll face today. Both bullpens have the same ERA when you look at their home away splits, both pitchers have similar RAW stats as far as true ERA or xFIP. So on the surface it's very hard to make a decision on this game which is why you are seeing it as basically an even money line spread. Despite that, the public is absolutely pounding the Cardinals to death for 68% of the bets and rightfully so Joe Kelly has an ERA under 3 and Jake Peavy just gave up 7 ER in his last start and an ERA over 5 on the road.
I'm taking the Red Sox because of value here. I think the value is on the Red Sox and it's evident that Vegas is totally fine taking more money on the Cardinals without moving the line and that's because Joe Kelly is over rated. Kelly has come down to life with a 4.41 ERA in three post season starts with a 1.47 WHIP indicating it could have been much worse. When you look over his starts you can see why he's had success. He's faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 10 in offense vs. RHP and he has not faced a top 5 team, but he will tonight. Kelly has been extremely lucky with an 83% strand rate and his 5.73 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 do not shout sub 3 ERA material. Peavy has better numbers 7.53 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. Peavy is way over due for a good start in the playoffs and he may not have it here, but I'm still going to back the Red Sox and this offense. Peavy does have 3 starts at this addition of Busch Stadium and a 2.25 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP. He's also had 10 of 14 quality starts this year on 5+ days rest so he should have plenty of confidence going into this start.
Boston is also 38-17 in their last 55 inter league road starts vs. RH starter. 82-32 in their last 114 vs. RH starter in inter league play. It also helps that Dana Demuth who has a smaller strike zone on average is behind the plate because that fits the personality of the Red Sox and it won't help Joe Kelly who has control issues to begin with. There is no surprise that the Red Sox are 17-4 in Demuth's last 21 behind home plate. Lastly, both bullpens have been superb, but the Red Sox bullpen has been better and the Cardinals may have to go deep into their bullpen as I don't think Kelly is going to go deep into this game.
|
10-23-13 |
St. Louis Cardinals +120 v. Boston Red Sox |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
Cardinals +112 5* MLB POD We all saw how the Red Sox offense struggled after some time off when they were waiting for the Tigers as Anibal Sanchez was masterful, but struggled with control leaving in the 6th inning with a no hitter but 6 walks. Tigers still won that game and now Adam Wainwright comes in with a better curve and far better control. Red Sox have no faced Wainwright and he's certainly the better pitcher on the mound. The hitters that have faced Wainwright have not hit him in 65 AB they have a .169 average and a .598 OPS. Wainwright is on extra rest compared with Lester and posts a 1.61 ERA this season when he's on 5 or more days of rest with all 12 going at least 7 innings with an average of 8 innings pitched. Jon Lester has had a good post season and he's certainly capable of throwing another great game here tonight. However, he's on shorter rest although still 5+ days. He also had 12 starts this year on 5 or more days rest and the results are not nearly as good. half of those starts did not go 7 innings and he posted a 3.24 ERA with an average 6.1 innings pitched. I favor the Cardinals arms and bullpen over the Red Sox who seem to be relying on Koji Uehara too much because the rest of the bullpen is a bit sketchy. This is the World Series and in this type of game it comes down to who can make the place in the clutch. I think the Cardinals getting Allen Craig back as a DH is going to help tremendously. We so Johny Peralta do it all post season after sitting out and I think Craig can do it too. Craig was one of the best hitters with 2 outs and with RISP. Speaking of which Cardinals own a significant advantage in OPS, average and on base percentage in the playoffs and regular season with runners on and runners in scoring position with 2 outs. To put it in perspective the Cardinals had a .821 OPS and a .305 average with RISP and 2 outs during the season compared with the Red Sox .747, and .249. I see a lot more weak links and strike out batter in the Sox line up and I think the Cardinals have a bigger edge.
|
10-18-13 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -125 v. St. Louis Cardinals |
Top |
0-9 |
Loss |
-125 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
[b]Dodgers -125 5.5* MLB POD[/b] Clayton Kershaw has to come up with a big game and beat the hot Michael Wacha who I feel is finally going to come back to earth a bit on Friday night. The Dodgers hitters looked really comfortable at the plate in their last start and are 52-20 in their last 72 vs. RH Starter. Meanwhile the Cardinals have struggled all year vs. LHP and I don't see how it's going to all of a sudden change. In their last 10 they are hitting .156 vs. LHP with just 1.69 runs per 9. At home the Cardinals are scoring 2.02 less runs per 9 vs. LHP compared with RHP and Kershaw is bound to go the complete game here on Friday night.
Kershaw is on 5 days rest where he posts a 2.06 ERA this season, but even more importantly he's off back to back games of less than 100 pitches with 72 and 91 pitch totals. He's got plenty in his tank right now and posts a 1.43 ERA in a start following a start with less than 100 pitches. That has happened 10 times this year with quality starts in every start with only 1 allowing 3 ER which came of 7.1 innings. Kershaw has had his issues at times with the Cardinals, but that's why we are getting decent value at -125.
|
10-16-13 |
Boston Red Sox +111 v. Detroit Tigers |
Top |
3-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
[b]Red Sox +114 4.5* MLB POD[/b] Red Sox should have this series in the bag as it seems like the Tigers are dead now after they nearly had the series in control and they choked again last night the Red Sox should cruise through today's game and look to wrap the series up. The Tigers bats and untimely hitting have been the difference as this team is struggling .212 and 2.39 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games. They'll face Jake Peavy who has pitched better than his stats indicate so we are getting tremendous value here on Wednesday night. Peavy had 1 start this year vs. the Tigers allowed 4 ER on only 4 hits in 7 innings. 3 of the 4 hits were home runs. That won't happen in Detroit not in the playoffs. Plus he owns the Tigers hottest hitter in Johny Peralta who is just 7-34 against Peavy. Most of this line up is struggling with Cabrera 7-31 in October, Fielder 8-29 with 0 HR, Hunter 6-33, Jackson 3-33, Avilla 5-25, Infante 5-28. Victor Martinez has hit well, but his questionable for this game. Doug Fister will have his hands full in this one as he allowed 11 hits 6 ER in a home start to the Red Sox earlier this year. He's not a power pitcher who strikes out many batters so the Red Sox are going to be putting a ton of balls in play and that will only benefit them as they continue to dominate RHP.
|
10-15-13 |
St. Louis Cardinals +126 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
126 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
[b]Cardinals +126 MLB POD[/b] No matter who pitches. How quickly things can change in a series as the Dodgers are now favorites to win this game and then will become favorites to win the series with Kershaw and Greinke on the bump next. As I mentioned in my POD last night where I was on the Dodgers. The Cardinals struggle big time vs. LHP and that's not just a recent trend it's been happening all year, but now they face another RHP and their offense should score enough to win here. The Dodgers are making a mistake or at least taking a high risk I have to fade by starting Ricky Nolasco who has not pitched since September 25th. Nolasco was supposed to start against the Braves and Mattingly did not like what he saw in the bullpen session and started Kershaw on 3 days rest. Pitchers, especially starting pitchers are creatures of habit and Nolasco has been healthy over his career and rarely made starts where he was on more than 5 days rest. In fact I had to go back to see and since 2008 he's made 6 starts with significant rest and the results are not good posting a non quality start in all 6 and a collective 10.87 ERA. Add in that hte Cardinals have 171 AB, .333 average and a .830 OPS against him with sick numbers from Beltran, Freese, Jay, and Holliday and I love the Cardinals tonight even if Mattingly pulls Nolasco early.
Lance Lynn is coming in under the radar because of his struggled on the road. It's not like the Dodgers are tearing the cover off the ball and Lynn has two starts against the Dodgers on the road in the last 13 months and he dominated in only 12 IP he had 16K's to 3BB's allowing only 7 hits and 1 ER. Collectively the Dodgers have 50 AB and a .436 OPS while Lynn has lower HR/9 percentages and a lower line drive % compared with Nolasco. Cardinals are a gritty bunch who are 54-24 in their last 78 following a loss. They know what is ahead of them if they don't get this win and I think it really got to them the way this Dodgers team was celebrating on the bases. I really expect this team to come out with a great game plan and if Lynn struggles they have enough depth in their bullpen to get some outs and then get to Nolasco. Their bullpen has a 1.88 ERA in their last 3 appearances each combined while the Dodgers are at 2.77. This bullpen has feasted on the road all year and will be the reason they get to the World Series.
|
10-14-13 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers +110 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
110 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
Dodgers +108 4.5* MLB POD Okay, people are acting like the Dodgers were blown out in both games, but easily could have taken both or at least a split. I don't think this team is in a panic right now even though they have to face Adam Wainwright who we will get to in a second. First Ryu needs a bit of an introduction. He was bad in his start vs. the Braves, and was pulled early. Ryu is plenty fresh and faces a Caridnals team that struggles big time vs. LHP. Not only are they 3-7 in their last 10vs. LHP on the road, but in their last 10 games they are hitting .189 vs. LHP. They were 26th in the regular season in OPS vs. LHP and Ryu pitched a gem on the road against them 7 IP 0 ER. This game is at home where he posts a 2.61 ERA. Cards are 6-15 in their last 21 road games vs. a winning record.
In my last write up of game 5 with Wainwright on the mound I talked about his pure dominance on 5 days rest. He came out pitched a complete game allowing 1 ER in the win. Now he has to go on 4 days rest after that emotional start where he just gave everything he had. Not only does he have to go on 4 days rest, but he's traveling cross country to the west coast to do so. A look back at his 4 starts on 4 days rest following 9 innings pitched this season and he posts a 7.43 ERA. I had to look back to his 2010 year where he was great to see the last time he went on the west coast on 4 days rest after a complete game and he faced the Dodgers allowed 4 ER in 6 innings. Dodgers will make the necessary adjustments they are hitting .282 and have a .817 OPS this post season vs. RHP meanwhile the Cardinals are hitting .149 and have a .436 OPS this post season vs. LHP. I think Dodgers get back into the series here tonight!
|
10-13-13 |
Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -127 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -126 4.5* MLB POD Bucholz in his home starts vs. the Tigers has been dominating with a 1.20 ERA while allowing just 16 hits in 30 inning. It's not like the Tigers have been ripping the ball they scored just 1 run and the Red Sox will do everything they can to avoid going down 2-0. I don't think there is any way they lose this game. Even yesterday they grinded out at bats for 6 walks against Scherzer they just could not come up with the big hit, but with a game under their belt I think they do. Max Scherzer has been dominating this year, but in 8 career starts vs. the Red Sox he's got a 7.01 ERA. Tigers are also just 16-36 in their last 52 games at Boston.
|
10-12-13 |
Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -139 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-139 |
22 h 36 m |
Show
|
Red Sox -137 5.5* MLB POD I can't even believe the Tigers are here again but they are and they send Anibal Sanchez to the mound who led the American League in ERA. Sanchez had a 2.44 ERA on the road, but over his last three starts he posted a 5.65 ERA. I think Sanchez is a bit over rated when you look at his road starts he's nearly walking 3 guys per 9 and he did not face a single team in the top 5 in hitting vs RHP all year and now he has to face the Red Sox who were #1 with a .818 OPS by a wide margin. He only faced 2 teams on the road ranked inside the top 10 so you could say he had the easy schedule. He will have his hands full with the Red Sox line up that just continues to make pitchers work for everything and we know about the Tigers struggles out of the bullpen. The Red Sox send a Jon Lester to the mound who posted a 2.57 ERA in 13 starts since the All Star break. Lester has been dominant down the stretch and continued that into the post season with a great start vs. the Rays 7.2 innings and 2 ER. He has a 2.54 career ERA in 9 games in post season play with 7 starts. He's on extra rest here facing a Tigers team that's not itself offensively and was not very good vs LHP on the road only scoring 3.65 runs per 9. Lester had 3.03 ERA at home and allowed 1 ER over 7 innings in his home start vs. the Tigers. Lester comes into this game on extra rest and he's got 8 of 9 quality starts in that situation at home posting a 2.63 ERA overall. It all starts at the top of the line up and Ellsbury right now is 9-18 in the playoffs while Austin Jackson is 2-20 with 13K's.
|
10-10-13 |
Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's +104 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
Athletics +102 4.5* MLB POD Game #5 and Verlander on the mound for the Tigers who have to feel good about their chances, but they are nearly under dogs? Verlander's pedigree has the public running to bet him tonight, but I'm not going to fall into that trap. Despite pitching a brilliant game already in this series I'm still not buying into Verlander who is having an off year with over 3 walks per 9 and a tERA nearing 4. Verlander as brilliant as he was only went 7 innings in the 1-0 loss in this series, and only went 5 and 6 innings in his other two starts against the A's which is a major problem because if this turns into a game of the bullpens the A's have a major advantage.
Sonny Gray will make the start for the A's and all Gray did was go 8 innings allowing only 5 base runners and 0 ER in his first post season start. Gray has excellent stuff and I expect similar things from him tonight at home where he posts a 1.66 ERA this year in 48 innings. He's got better K, and control numbers than Verlander this year and a lower tERA with just 19.5 line drive %. Tigers also have struggled due to Cabrera not being 100% and have a .217 average over their last 10 games vs. RHP scoring just 2.10 runs per 9. While the A's are hitting .268 and scoring 5.79.
|