Portland/Minnesota lands cleanly in the over column tonight as both offenses will play in rhythm while their defenses have provided value in recent weeks. Portland's offense erupted for 122 points on excellent ball movement and volume from deep. When the Blazers play up tempo, their games typically get high early. Minnesota scored 138 points thanks to an 81 point first half showing how lethal they can be when attacking downhill early in the shot clock. Both teams share a similar recipe entering this game, with the Timberwolves showing top tier efficiency and elite transition production. Multiple scorers should create problems against a Portland defense that has struggled away from home and consistently allows clean looks and second chance opportunities. These teams have also trended high in recent years, with Minnesota rarely finishing outside of the 110–120 range versus this defense. Combine Minnesota’s ability to set the tempo and Portland's inconsistent defense leading to extra possessions, this one should play fast and finish higher than the number indicates.

Jim's Play: 543. Trail Blazers / TWolves OVER 

The over on this game makes sense tonight because the matchup naturally inflates possessions/high-quality looks and the number is priced in a range where it can be gotten to even if only one side really explodes. We’re seeing Pacers–Knicks totals around 224.5 at most books.  First, the pace/possession profile of this game ticks in the direction of the over. Despite Indiana’s season taking a turn towards awfulness, the Pacers have played faster basketball recently and when they match up with a team that can both punish the glass and manufacture offensive rebounds - like New York - you often end up getting inflated shot volume compared to an average Knicks game. Probably the biggest piece of this game that tilts the totals towards the over is New York’s knack for offensive rebounding this year (especially at home), which leads to second chance buckets and “invisible” possessions that totals tend to struggle pricing in.

Second, the injury reports actually suggest that both teams score efficiently tonight. Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) and rookie Johnny Furphy (ACL), and then have a few rotation players listed as questionable including T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith. When a team loses its primary creator your offense often gets uglier, but it can also become more simplistic: more early-clock action, more straight-line drives, and more shot attempts overall before the defense is able to get set. Meanwhile, New York has enough home court shot creation to hypothetically post up more than half the total themselves, which is why we’re comfortable seeing a mid-220s number even with Indiana dealing with injuries.

Third, the implied game script leads to efficient late-game scoring. New York is laying huge odds on the Knicks, which means that there will likely be “foul-and-free-throw” endings if the Pacers hang around the number with under a minute to play. Even if the game is mostly in hand, you can still get over if you get two empty defensive possessions and a free-throw parade at the end of the game. NY’s recent form combined with Indiana’s propensity to allow games to get away makes that outcome feel live.

I'll take the OVER here tonight, even in a Knicks blowout win.

Jim's Play: 521. Pacers/Knicks OVER 

I’m fine taking the Over in Pelicans–Timberwolves on Friday because of why the baseline game is inflated to begin with: the total is around 236.5. New Orleans has been one of the league’s most generous defenses when it comes to Overs allowed (120.96 games per game) this season, so even when they’ve faced middling offenses they’ve still managed to get into the 120s. Minnesota has the sort of lead scorer that can take it into track meet territory by himself: Anthony Edwards is putting up 29.7 ppg and the Wolves offense has been fantastic with him on the floor (118.4 offensive rating with Edwards in the game). The matchup also bodes well for easy paint points/breakdowns: team tracking data has the Pelicans allowing near the league’s worst number of points in the paint (52.7). That spells good things for efficient offense and limiting empty trips. Then there’s the injury/availability aspect tilting things further toward fewer stops: New Orleans is without Jose Alvarado (out, did not travel with team) and Dejounte Murray (out), guards who matter most when engaged on-ball or at the point of attack. Minnesota might have a couple names on their injury report, but they’ve recently added another playmaker/scorer in Ayo Dosunmu who should help them maintain scoring pressure (15.0 ppg, 45.1% from three last season, via Reuters). Combine all that and you get a Wolves offense that can easily reach a high number and a Pelicans team that only needs to “facilitate” in the 110s to top the posted total.

Jim's Play: 537. Pelicans / Twolves OVER 

Chicago scores at a top-5 pace this season (about 117.9 ppg), but they also allow almost as many points themselves (about 119.7 ppg). That’s a great formula for the over as Chicago doesn’t just score, they allow their opponents to feel comfortable all game long. Tack on Chicago’s speed on offense (they rank top-5 in pace at around 101.4 possessions per game) and you have more trips up the floor than your average NBA game, which translates to more total points.

Looking at how the Lakers score, the offense checks out from an efficiency standpoint (team offense rating is around 117 this year). Even if Los Angeles isn’t lighting it up from deep, they can manufacture a total like this with good half-court offense and free throws.  If LA hits the free throw line in the high teens/low 20s and Chicago continues to make shots, the over is still very much alive even if it’s not a track meet.

Chicago is without Zach Collins (toe) and may not have Tre Jones (day to day, hamstring). Los Angeles will be without Austin Reaves (calf) while Victor and Lakerpert are noted as other rotation players being questionable. Missing/limited players typically have a larger impact on the defensive end of the floor (communication, scheme, rotational minutes) than they do on offense making shots, and that inherently leans towards the total going up.

Long story short: Bulls pace + Bulls defense is why this plays as an over and with 237.5 on the board you’re essentially betting that Chicago turns this into a high-scoring affair where both teams play through long stretches where they trade buckets instead of trying to create stops.

Jim's Play: 523. Lakers/Bulls OVER 

Miami and Indiana face off for the National Championship here on Monday. I like this game on Under because the most likely championship script is conservative early, defense-first throughout, and a lot of points needing to be “earned” with long drives instead of quick strikes. Kickoff is Monday, January 19, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN, and the main totals number showing across major previews is 47. That number is high enough that you don’t need a total rock fight to cash, you just need this to play like a title game where both staffs prioritize ball security, field position, and not giving the opponent short fields.

Matchup-wise, Indiana’s defense is the anchor that makes the Under make sense. They’ve been described as one of the best defenses in the country, allowing around 11 points per game and pairing that with an elite turnover margin, which is exactly the profile that forces opponents to string together long, mistake-free possessions. Miami’s best chance to score is still there, but they’re not at full strength in the pass-catching group, with at least one key starter ruled out on the injury report, which can push an offense toward more run game and shorter concepts, keeping the clock moving. On the Indiana side, they can be explosive, but a championship setting often pulls even great offenses into a more methodical approach, especially if they feel they can win with defense and field position.

Weather shouldn’t force an Under, but it does remove the “perfect scoring conditions” that can inflate totals. The forecast around kickoff in Miami Gardens is clear to mostly clear and around 60–62°F, which is comfortable, but it’s also not the hot, fast track environment you sometimes get in South Florida. Put it together and the Under path is straightforward: Indiana’s defense makes sustained drives hard, Miami’s offensive plan likely leans more balanced and careful, and if the first quarter starts tight (which is common in title games), you’re immediately in a tempo and possession-count game that favors a final that goes UNDER the total. 

Jim's Play: 287. Miami Fla/Indiana UNDER 

The Rams–Bears Divisional game projects to be an Under for a host of reasons, most of them associated with bad weather impacting offensive production. There’s a reason football games in cold, wet conditions often become games of field position and third-down defense (avoiding that big play); kickoff is Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 3: 30 p.m. PT (5:30 p.m. CT) at Soldier Field. Simply put: it’s going to be cold.

Chicago’s Sunday forecast projects very cold temperatures in the low 20s with periods of snow throughout the day. The Soldier Field hourly also shows game-time weather that feels even colder due to wind chill factor and the possibility of snow/flurries. When the temperature drops like that, the football becomes harder, player’s hands hurt, footing becomes questionable and offenses tend to play more conservatively with fewer clean downfield opportunities leading to stalled drives or punts/field-goal attempts.

That trend becomes even more important for Los Angeles as NFL teams that spend their entire season in domes typically run the ball more and take fewer chances downfield when playing in true Chicago winter weather. Chicago media is already highlighting the potential snow flurries and wind around the mid-teens (mph) leading up to the game, both of which decrease passing production and increase the value of simply not turning over the ball. With both teams likely looking to grind out field position in a divisional-round game, a predictable, clean Under script is offenses struggle with the elements and as a result, scoring is dictated by a few high-leverage red-zone opportunities instead of a constant flow of touchdowns.

Jim's Play: 393. Rams/Bears UNDER

This Texans–Patriots Divisional game has plenty of built-in Under value baked in simply due to the expected nature of this game. Football doesn’t come colder or more field-position oriented than Gillette Stadium typically does in the playoffs when both teams emphasize defense, the running game, and simply trying to avoid turnovers on early downs. Kickoff is Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 3:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. PT). The total is hovering around the low 40s at most books which already factors in some rain impact to lower the ceiling.

Nonetheless, the game script has a lot of drivers for betting the Under here and weather plays a huge factor. When these winds kick up and temperatures are in the mid-30s with a potential snow squall in the middle-to-late part of the game, efficiency downfield drops and offenses become much more conservative on early downs with rushes, leading to longer drives overall. This changes third downs and red-zone attempts from touchdown-or-bust to a much tougher ask. When that happens, you typically get punts instead of fourth-down attempts, teams “taking the field goal” instead of going for it, and a general inability to make clean explosive plays which means fewer total possessions.

Even matchup-wise, there’s a clear reason to think Houston’s attack won’t be quite as explosive as normal. Heading into this one, early reports and the betting breakdowns have pointed to Houston being without Nico Collins. Collins is Houston’s top pass-catcher and a true field-stretching talent, so losing him is exactly the sort of injury that makes an offense shorten their passing game and attempt longer drives that are more likely to stall. On the Patriots side of things, they’ve been quietly putting their team together in a way that favors defense and situational football as of late: adding defensive depth (CB Alex Austin returning from IR while also elevating a few other players from the practice squad) while mostly remaining healthy at safety impacts the game where the weather is already in play to favor the defense. When you put all of it together you have a clean recipe for an Under: frigid temperatures, snow in the forecast, likely conservative playoff game script, Houston possibly without their top receiver and both defenses feeling confident about “winning the fourth quarter” rather than forcing a shootout.

Jim's Play: 387. Texans/Patriots UNDER 

The late NFC Divisional game on Saturday between the SF 49ers and Seattle Seahawks looks to me to be a low scoring contest. The weather looks to be an issue. on Saturday (8:00 p.m. ET) in Seattle where weather could help skew things down. Weather at kickoff will be in cold (but dry) conditions with temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s°F at night. That’s not the classic “wind and rain” game we see from kickoffs in Seattle, but cold weather can help defenses tackle better and make offenses heavier on runs while not wanting to force passes into tight coverage. Bottom line: familiarity between rivals, defensive playoff-style football, likely run/field-position battle script, and Seattle potentially having to adapt their offense if their quarterback is limited equals a nice path to the Under.

Coaches in the playoffs don’t like to play risky unless they have to, especially when playing a familiar divisional opponent. Blame it on typical playoff-football style or coaches being cautious with the season on the line, but playoff games tend to have more runs, more clock used, and more punts that pin opponents deep in their own territory.

Add in that this is the third game these teams have played this season, and they both struggled to score against one another with defensive, turnover-prone contests decided by eight points or less. Seattle also might not have 100% from their quarterback, as Sam Darnold (questionable, oblique) is up and down on the injury report. The Seahawks could be in a situation where they lean on their run game and short-to-intermediate passing concepts even more. Meanwhile, San Francisco is okay with playing to their running game and Christian McCaffrey’s versatility, and if both teams want to avoid turnovers, you often end up with longer drives that end with either a punt or field goal.

While the weather likely will not be a big factor, I like this game to stay under tht total points here on Saturday evening. 

Jim's Play: 389. 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 

This is a nice matchup for an Over around 154.5, as Arkansas State plays with pace and scores points while South Alabama’s offensive trademarks (efficiency, free throws) can provide floor coverage during potential droughts. Arkansas State scores 83.3 points per game while ALSO allowing 78.0 points per game per their opponents, which is exactly the defensive profile you look for when conference games turn into shootouts with both squads hitting shots. South Alabama scores right at 74 points per game while shooting 46.9% from the field, so they don’t have to grind down the shot clock to find buckets. Another strong “Over” indicator in this game is free throws. Arkansas State makes 18.6 free throws per game (and South Alabama is good at drawing fouls too) which can help elevate the total late with “clock-stop” points even in the event of one team struggling from beyond the arc. Throw in South Alabama’s defense allows plenty of three-point attempts (teams shoot 35.2%) and Arkansas State makes threes at a high volume (8.6 made per game), and you’ve got a game with the potential for quick scores. With the total sitting in the mid-150s and recent meetings providing at least SOME shootout ability (one game went OVER 95 points last season at 95-78), I feel like the safest way to the Over is Arkansas State playing with pace and South Alabama responding with enough efficiency to keep both teams in the 80s/70s.

Jim's Play: 815. Arkansas State/ S0.Alabama OVER

Miami–Ole Miss tonight has a clear path to the over because the scoring profiles are strong on both sides and the environment should be ideal for offense. The total is sitting around 52 to 52.5, and with the game in a controlled stadium setting, you are not dealing with wind or weather that typically drags passing games and kicking down. Ole Miss is built to put points on the board, averaging about 37.6 points per game, and they have a quarterback who protects the ball, which supports sustained drives and fewer empty possessions. Miami can hold up its end too, scoring around 31.6 points per game, and they have enough playmakers to answer when Ole Miss hits. Another over-friendly factor is short fields: if turnovers or special teams create a couple of sudden change possessions, those often turn into touchdowns in clean conditions. Put it together and the most likely script is Ole Miss producing chunk drives, Miami responding often enough to keep pace, and both teams finishing drives at a higher rate than they would in bad weather, which is exactly what you want when the number is in the low 50s.

273. Miami / Ole MISS OVER 52.5 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

Ravens–Steelers is a gold-standard UNDER setup. It’s a Sunday night game at Acrisure Stadium (8: 20 PM ET) with the total around 40.5. The game-time weather in Pittsburgh is brutal-cold (mid-20s and cloudy around kickoff), and even with light wind expected, that kind of cold tends to punish downfield passing, tighten play-calling, and make kicking/ball-handling less automatic. On top of that, this rivalry almost always plays like a fistfight: both coaches are comfortable leaning run game + field position, punting to win the hidden-yards battle, and forcing the other side to drive the long way in low-margin spots, exactly how you end up with more field goals than touchdowns. Personnel-wise, Baltimore is getting Lamar Jackson back (which helps their ceiling), but the Steelers also get T.J. Watt back after the collapsed-lung issue, and his presence alone can turn a couple of Ravens possessions into sacks, long-yardage, and punts. Add in that Baltimore has had illness/injury questions around key pass-catch/coverage pieces (like Rashod Bateman and Marlon Humphrey listed questionable), which can also push this toward conservative, lower-risk offense on one side and “bend-don’t-break” drives on the other. Put it together and the clean UNDER script is straightforward: cold night, two physical defenses, run-heavy pacing, and just a couple of stalled red-zone trips or missed kicks are enough to keep this game under the total. 

Jim's Play: 349. Ravens/Steelers UNDER 

Chargers at Broncos on Sunday, January 4 and I'll be looking at the UNDER in this matchup because the total is more likely being capped by personnel and game flow than the weather. The primary reason the game projects to be a low-scoring affair is that multiple articles mention the Chargers are expected to rest starters such as Justin Herbert. That’s a huge hit for overall offensive production and especially red-zone efficiency. The factor is magnified by the Broncos being mentioned in their Week 18 previews as a top-level defense, the type that can force a reserve QB-led offense into a steady diet of punts and field goals. Game script-wise, Denver is favored and playing for the AFC’s top seed, and usually in that situation teams will proceed with a more controlled game plan that emphasizes the run game, high-percentage throws, and ball security over attacking with tempo, particularly once a lead is in place. If the Broncos are able to establish an early lead, both teams also have reasons to run clock and be conservative late in preserving health and reducing possessions, keeping the UNDER alive. The weather in Denver in the afternoon window is forecast to be clear with mild temps, so wind and snow are not factors in this forecast; the UNDER is mostly tied to the Chargers’ downgraded offense and a Broncos’ approach that can win comfortably without having to go fast.

Jim's play: 363. Chargers/Broncos UNDER 

NFC West implications on the line here on Saturday as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers.  I am looking at the OVER in this matchup for a few reasons, motivation and form align in the direction of points. The total is sitting in the high-40s (roughly 47.5–49.5 range), and while Santa Clara could receive rain earlier in the day, the forecast is showing only scattered showers during the game itself and nothing wet enough to significantly affect the field, with winds that are breezy but not absolutely brutal. In addition, there’s the simple fact that the NFC West and top-seed implications are on the line, and these are often the games with more teams going plus in conviction and fewer “play for field position” punts. From a production perspective, San Francisco’s offense has been on fire, Brock Purdy is on a heater (15 total TDs and a 120.5 passer rating over his last four games) and the 49ers have scored 35+ in each of their last three, while Seattle can also contribute, especially through the air with Sam Darnold and a big-play profile built around Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the matchup favors doing so because the 49ers’ pass rush has reportedly fallen off hard without Nick Bosa, making it easier for Seattle to sustain drives and hit explosives. If the game stays close, turnovers can even lead to an OVER via short fields and both teams entering on six-game win streaks also bodes well for four full quarters of urgency and late points.

Jim's Play: OVER the Total.

Washington State travels to Seattle U Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025 (7:00 p.m. PT) at Climate Pledge Arena. The total is sitting in the mid-to-high 140s (about 147.5) which feels a little rich for how this one can play out.  The biggest “Under” angle is tempo/shot quality: Seattle plays on the slow side (67.7 possessions/40) and tends to draw opponents into long, methodical half-court possessions, while Washington State is faster than Seattle but not a true track meet (71.4 possessions/40). From there, you’re hoping Seattle’s defense can keep WSU out of rhythm (the Redhawks are allowing about 69.1 points per game) and WSU’s offense can leave points on the table with empty possessions in a road environment. Put it together and you get a game script where possessions are a little tighter than the total suggests, both teams have to earn looks late in the clock and the “easy” points (transition, quick threes, second-chance runouts) aren’t as plentiful, good ingredients for an Under.

Jim's Play: 649. Wash St/Seattle UNDER 

The USC–TCU Alamo Bowl has all the ingredients to push past the 55.5 total because both defenses come into the game depleted and vulnerable, especially in the secondary, where opt-outs and transfers have created major holes. That opens the door for explosive plays on both sides, and USC’s offense still operates with tempo and spacing that naturally increases possession count and scoring opportunities. TCU’s offense also found late-season rhythm, particularly in its run game and RPO packages, giving the Horned Frogs a reliable scoring floor against a USC defense that has struggled to stop anything consistently. Both teams have had issues in the red zone, often allowing touchdowns instead of field goals, which is a major Over driver in bowl games. Add in the bowl-game tendency for offensive surges when defenses are thin, plus the big-play potential from USC’s speed and TCU’s balanced attack, and this matchup has multiple pathways to clear 55.5 total with room to spare.

Jim's Play: 247. USC/TCU OVER 

Bears at 49ers on Sunday, December 28, 2025 (5:20 PM PT) sets up well for an OVER because the conditions and the matchup both lean offense. Game-time weather in Santa Clara looks pretty clean, with morning fog lifting and a partly sunny day around 57°F with a 36°F low, so you are not dealing with rain or heavy wind that typically drags scoring down. The total is sitting at 52.5, and that number makes sense when you look at how San Francisco has been playing: the 49ers have been averaging 34.4 points over a five-game win streak and have been so efficient that they have not punted on their last 21 possessions, which is exactly the kind of drive-finishing profile that pushes games over the number.  Chicago can help on the other side too, with Caleb Williams and the Bears offense playing better late in the year, and their defense leading the league in takeaways, which can actually help an OVER by creating short fields or sudden-change scoring chances.  Add in San Francisco’s improved special teams and Eddy Piñeiro’s 26-straight made field goals, and you have fewer empty trips and more points in a game that already projects as a high-scoring, prime-time shootout.

Jim's Play: 429. Bears/49ers OVER 

Steelers at Browns kicks off Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT), and the game-time setup points toward a grind. The Cleveland forecast calls for rain around the day with temps in the 40s to 50s near early afternoon, and the National Weather Service has southerly winds in the neighborhood of 7–13 mph with gusts from24 mph to 44 mpg, which can disrupt downfield timing and make kicking less reliable. In that kind of rain-plus-wind environment, offenses usually shrink the playbook, leaning more run game and quick throws, which keeps the clock moving and reduces explosive plays. The market is also telling you points should be hard to come by, with the total sitting in the mid-30s (roughly 33.5–34.5 range). On the matchup side, Cleveland’s defense has been one of the league’s strongest by yards and efficiency measures, making long, clean scoring drives tougher to string together, especially on a wet field. Add in Cleveland being without TE David Njoku and Pittsburgh missing starting LG Isaac Seumalo, and it’s easy to see both offenses leaning even more conservative, with more punts, fewer clean red-zone chances, and the kind of field-position, AFC North slugfest profile that supports an UNDER.

Jim's Play:  417. Steelers/Browns UNDER   

Cardinals–Bengals sets up well for an OVER because everything about the environment and game script points to points. The market is already expecting scoring with the total around 53.5 and Cincinnati favored by about a touchdown, which creates a natural “Bengals in front / Cardinals chasing” tempo where Arizona has to stay aggressive deep into the second half.  The game-time weather in Cincinnati also looks unusually friendly for late December: it’s forecast to be cloudy and very warm (high near 69°F) with a breezier afternoon and thunderstorms late, so early and mid-game conditions should be more conducive to passing and kicking than a typical cold, windy AFC North spot. On the matchup side, both defenses are dealing with meaningful losses: Arizona is expected to be without Budda Baker, and Cincinnati will be without edge rusher Joseph Ossai, which can show up as more explosive plays and fewer drive-killing pressures. This also isn’t a spot where you’re fighting season-long tendencies, since both teams have been OVER-friendly (9-6 to the over). I expect lots of scoring in this matchup on Sunday in Cincy. 

Jim's Play: 407. Cardinals/Bengals OVER 

The Mavericks–Kings matchup sets up cleanly for an Over because both teams are coming in playing high-tempo, high-scoring basketball with defenses that haven’t been getting stops. Dallas just played a 126-116 game on Christmas, while Sacramento’s most recent outing was a 136-127 shootout,  both comfortably Over results. The projected scoring for this matchup already sits right around the posted number, with models placing the combined total in the 232–233 range, which signals a game that should naturally play into the Over. Sacramento has been giving up big numbers lately, allowing 136 and 122 in two of its last three, and Dallas hasn’t been much better defensively after surrendering 126 to Golden State. Pace also pushes this total upward, as the Kings have been playing faster and the Mavericks lean heavily on early-clock offense and perimeter creation. Key scorers on both sides are in rhythm, and neither team is protecting the rim well, especially with Dallas missing interior help. With recent head-to-head matchups already trending toward high scoring as I look for this game to easily make it over the posted total. 

Jim's Play: Take: 519. Mavericks/Kings OVER

Denver has a pretty legit shootout profile to start, with the Nuggets games have gone over in 19/30 this season and Denver + opponent averaging about 238.7 points combined over Denver’s last 10 (total O/U listed at 240.5 in that preview box).   Offensively, Denver is averaging elite numbers (125.2 PPG) and Minnesota’s own scoring level is high enough to do its part of the heavy lifting (118.5 PPG, Denver allowing 116.5), which is a pretty clean math path to the high 230s/low 240s if both teams play close to their norms. Injury reports also lean “points” in my opinion, with the NBA’s official injury report listing Aaron Gordon (out), Christian Braun (out), and Cameron Johnson (out) for Denver which can soften Denver’s defensive matchups/rotations and lead to easier scoring for Minnesota.  Lastly, Denver just played in a 131–130 game with Dallas, which is a fun reminder of how quickly Nuggets games can get into the 240s when the ball is moving fast/shot-making is there.  I'm sticking with the OVER here on Christmas day as my Total of the Month. 

Jim's Play : 595. T'Wolves/Nuggets OVER 

Monday night’s matchup between the 49ers and Colts sets up as a strong Under play thanks to two disciplined defenses, two run-heavy offensive identities, and a total in the mid-40s that already signals a lower-scoring expectation. San Francisco enters allowing just over 20 points per game and has tightened up during its four-game winning streak, while Indianapolis has been similarly solid defensively, giving up just 21.6 points per game. Both offenses lean heavily on their star running backs - Christian McCaffrey for the 49ers and Jonathan Taylor for the Colts - which naturally shortens the game, limits possessions, and keeps the clock moving. The Colts’ offense has cooled off significantly, scoring only 16 points last week and struggling to finish drives during their four-game skid, while San Francisco’s defense matches up well against a turnover-prone Indy attack. Even though the game is indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, both teams’ methodical styles and defensive strengths point toward a slower, grind-it-out contest that stays under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 131. 49ers/Colts UNDER 

Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Lions shapes up as a strong Over play thanks to two offenses trending upward and an ideal scoring environment inside Ford Field. Detroit is coming off a 41–34 shootout against the Rams, a 75-point explosion that showcased Jared Goff’s rhythm after throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Pittsburgh also showed offensive efficiency in its 28-15 win over Miami, and with Aaron Rodgers active, the Steelers maintain a high passing ceiling even if their season-long scoring has fluctuated. Playing indoors removes weather from the equation entirely, and Detroit has been one of the league’s most reliable home offenses, consistently producing big numbers in controlled conditions. The market reflects this expectation, opening the total at 52–52.5 - one of the highest on the Week 16 board - signaling that oddsmakers anticipate a fast-paced, high-scoring game. With both teams coming off strong offensive performances and their last two head-to-head meetings combining for 67 points, all signs point toward another game that pushes past the posted total.

Jim's Play: 125. Steelers/Lions OVER 

The Falcons-Cardinals contest on Sunday has been marked as one of the better Over plays on the board as we enter Week 16. The two offenses are coming off high-scoring affairs against very good defenses. Also, State Farm Stadium in the desert usually provides a quick game with good passing numbers, as there are no factors that can affect the game, such as rain or cold weather. Let’s first look at Atlanta, which is coming off a 29-28 victory in a 57-point game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kirk Cousins threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, and the Falcons’ passing game appears to be hitting its stride at a time when their passing attack is needed the most. In Arizona, the Cardinals were involved in a 40-20 game last week against the Houston Texans. Their defense is in bad shape and could be in trouble against Cousins and the Falcons, especially since the Cardinals’ offense has been sneaking up on people. The Cardinals have quietly averaged better than 260 passing yards per game in their last three games. It’s also tough to bet against State Farm Stadium as a host because every game there is guaranteed to have zero variables such as wind, snow or rain. It’s also worth noting that these teams’ defenses have some problems. Arizona has allowed 40+ points in consecutive games for the first time since 2016 and has lost six consecutive games. As for Atlanta, their injury report this week is long and includes defensive players. As for the total itself, it opened at 48.5 points at most books on Monday. It is one of the higher numbers on the Week 16 board, and for good reason: The game flow could dictate a very fast-paced, high-offense finish.

Jim's Play: 121. Falcons/Cardinals OVER

Sunday’s matchup between the Jaguars and Broncos sets up as a strong Over play thanks to two offenses playing their best football of the season and a game environment that naturally promotes scoring. Denver is coming off a 34-point performance behind Bo Nix’s 302 yards and four touchdowns, while Jacksonville exploded for 48 points last week with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 330 yards and five scores. Both teams enter on long winning streaks - the Broncos with 11 straight and the Jaguars with five - and both offenses rank inside the league’s top tiers, with Denver 11th in total offense and Jacksonville 8th in scoring at nearly 27 points per game. Recent results support the Over as well, with both teams’ most recent games soaring past the number and Denver games hitting the Over six times this season. Playing in Denver only enhances scoring potential, as Mile High’s altitude wears down defenses and favors fast-paced offenses like Jacksonville’s, which has topped 25 points in seven straight games.  All signs point to a high-scoring matchup that pushes this game over the posted total.

Jim's Play: 123. Jags/Broncos OVER 

The Bills-Browns Under gets a boost from a tough Cleveland forecast, combined with matchup and game-flow concerns. Sunday's game is expected to take place in 28–30-degree temperatures with a 19-degree wind chill, with 15-mph winds and gusts up to 27 mph, which will generally lead to lower-scoring affairs that feature less deep passing and long field goals. This suggests a more conservative game script, to begin with. The Browns are one of the worst offenses in the NFL in all of the important metrics, as they rank in the bottom third in scoring, total offense, passing and rushing this season. Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders has not been able to produce with much regularity. This will play very well into the hands of a Buffalo defense that has one of the best pass covers in the league. The Bills' high-octane offense is naturally affected by cold, swirling winds that can lead to less downfield efficiency and shorter drives. Factor in the Browns' tendency to run the ball and shorten the game - which will be encouraged by the Bills' leaky run defense - and the ingredients are all there for a long-possession, stalled-drive game with limited total plays. The market has the line in the low 40s, so oddsmakers are pricing in the weather and game flow as well. Sunday's game will be a slugfest that lands Under.

Jim's Play : 107. Bills/Browns UNDER 

I'm looking at the UNDER tonight in the LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks contest.  The weather looks to be a main driver here, because the conditions and the matchup both suggest fewer clean, explosive scoring drives. Seattle is contending with rain around game time and several betting-weather reports are also forecasting strong winds (roughly mid-to-high teens) with gusts that can reach the 30s mph - the kind of environment that negatively impacts timing throws, deep shots, and even longer field-goal attempts.  On top of that, each offense has notable personnel concerns: the Rams’ Davante Adams is listed doubtful 

while Seattle has LT Charles Cross ruled out, both of which can result in more pressure/sacks and push the Seahawks toward quicker, shorter, lower-upside possessions.  And, of course, we’ve already seen a “blueprint” for a lower total in this rivalry - the previous meeting ended 21–19 (40 points), with the Rams’ defense generating takeaways and the game staying close throughout.  This one looks to be a grind-it-out contest tonight  and I'll be on the UNDER.

Jim's Play: 101. Rams/Seahawks UNDER 

Take: 511. Cavaliers / Bulls OVER 243 

This game has excellent setup for an over because Chicago plays at one of the fastest paces in the league (league's 2nd highest pace) and also ranks quite low defensively (24th ranked defense). Both of these factors usually lead to extra possessions and higher-quality looks for the Bulls' opponents. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland has been very productive on offense (116.7 offensive rating, 118.7 PPG) and Evan Mobley being out (calf strain) combined with several other players missing in the rotation lower the Cavs' defensive ceiling and rim protection, making it easier for the Bulls to put up enough points to keep the high total in the game. Also considering the posted number is already in the low 240s, we have a clear avenue for getting to the points through pace, transition opportunities, and a softened Cleveland defense, so it's easy to see this game getting into the 120s on both sides if the shooting is just average.

Jim's Play: 511. Cavaliers / Bulls OVER 

The over makes sense in Spurs-Knicks on Tuesday because you’re getting two teams that can put points up in a hurry, led by an elite Knicks offense (122.0 offensive rating, 2nd in the NBA) and a Spurs group that’s also producing efficiently (118.0 offensive rating). San Antonio’s ability to score in transition can push the pace and create quick buckets, while New York’s half-court attack can keep the scoreboard moving with Brunson’s foul-drawing style that produces efficient, clock-stopping points. Add in the Knicks’ potential edge on the glass for second-chance points, and you’ve got a matchup where extra possessions can quietly lift the total. Finally, the injury reports don’t appear to remove the main scoring engines on either side, so the offensive profiles that point to an over should be intact.

Jim's Play: 509. Spurs/Knicks OVER 

The Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers game on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is one to target as a strong play over the total. San Francisco’s offense is one of the most efficient and explosive in the NFL, with the ability to produce chunk plays through both the air and on the ground, forcing their opponents to respond early and often. Christian McCaffrey while physically healthy has been dealing with an illness this last week but should be ready for Sunday. The 49ers passing game has been hitting on all cylinders lately with play-action and motion concepts opening up big play opportunities. Tennessee’s defense has been weak against dynamic offenses and they figure to be tested early and often against San Francisco.

The Titans themselves have been a more aggressive offensive team in recent weeks. Their passing game has come alive with improved play at quarterback and a stronger group of receivers, and they have shown a greater propensity to push the ball downfield on the deep ball when game script allows it. Against a 49ers defense that has been strong but has not been completely impenetrable when it comes to well-timed vertical shots or misdirection concepts, Tennessee has a chance to produce scoring drives of their own. Tennessee’s run game also remains strong enough to help control the tempo of the game and create red?zone opportunities, which is critical for keeping the scoreboard ticking.

What makes this matchup so attractive for the over is how it’s likely to play out. San Francisco’s offense should force their opponents into catch-up mode, with a faster pace and a greater pass volume as a result. Tennessee is built to play in that type of environment, and the improvements they’ve made to their own offense make them far more capable of trading scores in that type of game script than in years past. Add in the 49ers’ proven ability to score quickly and Tennessee’s improved ability to sustain drives, and the recipe is in place for a game that will see multiple momentum swings and consistent scoring throughout.

Jim's Play: 479. Titans/49ers OVER 

The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints NFC South showdown on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is an over bet for multiple reasons, which when added together outweigh the season-long totals that are low for both of these teams. Defensively, both teams have had serious issues against the big play and the matchups on both sides of the ball create offenses with the potential to both string together long, sustained drives as well as get explosive. While the Panthers offense has been very streaky this season, when they have gone up against the type of defense that New Orleans has shown to be susceptible to – specifically with speed and misdirection, they’ve had success. The Panthers’ young quarterback has looked increasingly comfortable going downfield, and with a Saints secondary that has been very susceptible to both breakdowns and big-play liabilities, Carolina has a potential offensive ceiling if the game script requires them to play catchup. Meanwhile, New Orleans has looked at their best when playing at home, where their offense has found its rhythm quickly more often than not. The Saints passing game has been much more aggressive this season and against a Panthers defense that has had trouble generating consistent pressure as well as being susceptible to the big play, New Orleans should be able to both create explosive pass plays as well as through the ground. The Saints’ red-zone efficiency, which is much better at home, also sets them up for a better chance to turn drives into touchdowns, rather than field goals.

Divisional games tend to be low-scoring by nature, but divisional familiarity also has a tendency to open up more scoring opportunities, simply because each team knows the other’s tendencies and the ways to attack the other’s defense, and the defenses here have shown enough inconsistency for both teams that scoring opportunities are likely throughout the game. Carolina has the potential to provide more offense than has been expected so far this season, and the Saints have the elements for a strong offensive showing at home. Considering all of the elements, the ingredients for a higher-scoring game are present.

Jim's Play: 475. Panthers/Saints OVER

The matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears on Sunday in mid-December sets up as a classic AFC/NFC grinder that points strongly to the under. First, the setting matters: December in Cleveland typically means cold temperatures, swirling winds off Lake Erie, and a heavy field that slows down speed on the perimeter.  And right now it's expected to be around 13 degrees with wind chills reaching -20 degrees. This will lean heavily at making this game a more defensive battle. 

From a matchup standpoint, the Browns’ defensive profile leans toward a low total as well. In recent seasons, Cleveland has built one of the better defenses in the league. The Browns have the 2nd ranked over defense and the league's top rushing defense.  Chicago’s offense, even with a dynamic quarterback and improved skill talent, has still tended to be streaky and at its best when the run game is working and the play-action is respected. Against a front as physical as Cleveland’s, sustained 70–80 yard drives are difficult to string together, and red-zone trips often stall into field-goal attempts instead of touchdowns.

On the other side, the Browns’ offense also quietly supports an under. They’ve often leaned on their ground game and short passing attack, playing methodical, possession-based football rather than turning games into shootouts. That style shortens the game, keeps their defense fresh, and limits the total number of drives for both teams. Chicago’s defense, while not elite, has improved in the front seven and is better equipped to play the run and force Cleveland into long fields. Add it all up: winter conditions that suppress scoring, two teams comfortable running the ball and grinding clock, a high-end Browns defense, and a Bears offense that’s more workmanlike than explosive. The most likely script is a physical, field-position battle where punts, field goals, and stalled drives outnumber quick-strike touchdowns, making the under my NFL Total of the Year. 

Jim's Play: Take: 461. Browns/Bears UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

The Spurs and Thunder meet on Saturday, December 13, 2025 in a matchup that sets up cleanly for a game that can push over the total, thanks to pace, offensive efficiency, and matchup dynamics that favor scoring on both ends. Oklahoma City continues to operate as one of the league’s most fluid, high-tempo offenses, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren driving a system built on spacing, quick decisions, and relentless rim pressure. OKC’s ability to create early offense-whether off rebounds, turnovers, or simple pace pushes-forces opponents into faster possessions, and San Antonio has shown all season that they’re willing to run when the game environment demands it.

For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama remains the centerpiece, and his offensive growth has opened up the floor for San Antonio’s guards and wings. The Spurs have been far more effective in transition and semi-transition than in half-court sets, and OKC’s style naturally pulls them into that type of game. With Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle providing perimeter scoring and Wembanyama drawing constant defensive attention, San Antonio has enough firepower to keep pace and contribute meaningfully to the total. Defensively, the Spurs still struggle with ball containment and rotations-issues that OKC’s guard play is built to exploit-which further supports a high-scoring script.

The Thunder’s offensive consistency, combined with San Antonio’s willingness to play faster and their defensive vulnerabilities, creates a matchup where both teams should find efficient scoring opportunities. OKC’s ability to generate threes and paint touches at volume, paired with the Spurs’ improving offensive rhythm, points toward a game with extended runs, quick possessions, and minimal scoring droughts.

Jim's Play: 507. Spurs/Thunder OVER 

Offense should thrive in this matchup and help it finish over the total on Friday. Cleveland has been more perimeter-oriented and more uptempo over the last few seasons. They have multiple guards and wings who can create off the dribble, open up the floor with threes, and attack defenses in the pick-and-roll. The Cavs are at their best when they get good spacing, attack mismatches, and force teams to scramble, which tends to lead to open threes or trips to the charity stripe. Washington has been more of a defense-optional team more than they have not, giving up open looks in transition and struggling to corral dribble penetration for an entire 48 minutes. That combination should lead to a more productive night on the stat sheet for Cleveland.

The Wizards have enough on offense to hold up their end and make this finish over the number as well. Washington generally plays a quicker tempo, encouraging early offense, drive-and-kick action, and a high volume of three-point attempts. Even if their shooting goes cold, the overall volume of possessions and shots is likely to create an over-friendly game script, especially against a Cavs team that can occasionally live a little on the defensive end to get back into a game when the pace opens up. If Washington can make a reasonable percentage of their three-point attempts and get some bench production, they should be able to stay competitive and keep Cleveland’s starters on the floor late instead of turning this into a slow, grind-it-out kind of finish. With both teams capable of going on runs, Washington playing down a notch on the defensive end, and enough shot-making for long stretches of time, this should be a game that goes back-and-forth and finishes over on Friday night.

551. Cavaliers / Wizards OVER  

Cy-Hawk continues with a Thursday night meeting, which bodes well for an under and lower-scoring affair. Iowa has offensive reputation and identity but the Hawkeyes rarely play at the same level of pace and efficiency away from Iowa City against a tough and engaged defense like Iowa State. The Cyclones under T.J. Otzelberger have relied on full court pressure, toughness and half-court defense to grind possessions, forcing opponents to burn their shot clock for difficult looks. That’s a style that bodes well for an under: clean transition opportunities at a premium for Iowa, more time for the opponent with each possession and a premium on every trip. Meanwhile, Iowa State’s offense has been more functional than explosive in the first half of the season, relying on offensive rebounds, free throws and opportunistic threes more than a barrage of shot-making. In a rivalry game, you also have to assume both coaches tighten their rotations, prioritize shot selection and ball security and play a slower tempo to keep the other team from making a big run. Add in crowd atmosphere and physicality that typically comes with this in-state rivalry and a whistle that should allow some contact and you have the makings of a defensive, half-court affair that favors the under.

Jim's Play: 677. Iowa / Iowa State UNDER 

Another of those key matchups on Sunday that will go a ways to clarifying the AFC playoff picture as the Houston Texans travel to Kansas City for the Sunday Night contest.  Houston (7-5) brings league's top ranked defense to town - surrendering roughly 16.5 points per game this season - and they’ve leaned on that unit to win close, low-scoring affairs; when the Texans control field position and force opponents into longer third-down chains, the number of scoring opportunities for both teams drops significantly. 

Kansas City (6-6) still has explosive playmakers, but recent inconsistency and defensive lapses have made the Chiefs more prone to conservative game scripts when facing a top-tier defense at home.  Houston’s defensive identity is built to limit explosive pass plays and win the turnover/field-position battle, which forces the Chiefs to sustain longer drives rather than rely on quick scoring. Kansas City’s offense has the talent to flip a game with a few big plays, but the Chiefs have been less efficient recently and are vulnerable when their offensive line can’t consistently protect or when their short-week prep is disrupted - both scenarios that increase punts and clock-burning drives rather than rapid scoring bursts. 

Conversely, the Texans’ offense is comfortable chewing clock with a balanced run/pass mix; that style shortens the game and reduces total possessions, a classic under driver.  Primetime games also tend to see more conservative play-calling early as coaches avoid turnovers under the lights; if the first quarter is slow, the game script will likely remain grind-oriented and keep the total in check. The combination of Houston’s elite run-stopping defense, Kansas City’s recent offensive inconsistency, and a low-possession game script makes the UNDER the logical play for Sunday Night.

Jim's Play: 143. Texans/Chiefs UNDER 

The NFC West has the team in the penthouse (LA Rams 9-3) taking on the team in the outhouse (Arizona 3-9). Los Angeles enters this tilt as a clear favorite and the market has set the total at roughly 48, a number that already anticipates scoring but still leaves room for an over if both teams trade big plays and quick drives. The Rams remain one of the league’s more explosive offenses when healthy, and even after a puzzling loss they still possess the personnel to generate chunk plays downfield - a primary driver of overs in divisional matchups.  The Rams are 8th in the NFL in total offense (19th in rushing and 4th in passing). 

Arizona’s season record masks a recent uptick in offensive production and the Cardinals have shown they can move the ball through the air when Jacoby Brissett is on rhythm. Now that it looks like Brissett will be behind center the rest of the season, that bodes well for the offense that has big number through the air with Brissett.  Divisional familiarity also matters: these teams know each other’s tendencies, which often leads to quicker scoring sequences rather than long, methodical possessions in this matchup context.

The Rams suffered a surprising loss to Carolina but that result looks more like an outlier than a trend, after QB  Matthew Stafford had three turnovers - something he has limited all season.  When the Rams’ passing game clicks, games move fast; Arizona’s defense has been vulnerable to chunk plays this season, which increases the probability of a high-scoring script if Los Angeles finds early rhythm.

Both teams have playmakers who create explosive opportunities, and State Farm Stadium’s conditions favor passing. If the Rams avoid a slow start and Arizona converts a few early possessions into touchdowns rather than field goals, the game script becomes a back-and-forth shootout - the classic over scenario. Target the OVER at or near 48. 

Jim's Play: 139. Rams/Cards OVER 

Sunday's Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens AFC North matchup will leave one team with a big advantage to the division crown. Both teams enter today's contest tied at 6-6 and tied for first place in the North. Likely only one team in this division will make the postseason, which makes this game even higher impact. 

Pittsburgh’s offense has been uneven and ranks 27th overall in the NFL (28th rushing / 24th passing) while Baltimore’s attack is better at 20th, but lacks in passing with a 28th ranking. Both profiles are more likely to produce long, clock-consuming drives than rapid scoring bursts, which reduces the number of possessions and the raw scoring ceiling. Turnovers, field position, and defensive identity are the decisive variables that push this game under. Pittsburgh’s recent outings have featured offensive miscues and low output - a 26-7 loss to Buffalo highlighted how the Steelers can be bottled up when their passing game stalls - and those kinds of low-scoring performances compress totals quickly. Baltimore, meanwhile, has shown it can play physical, time-of-possession football behind a strong run game and a defense that limits chunk plays; when the Ravens control the line of scrimmage they force opponents into longer third-down chains and fewer scoring opportunities, which is a classic under driver.

Matchup specifics also favor the UNDER.  The last nine meetings between these teams have seen the game go UNDER in eight of those games.  The Steelers’ offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play increase the chance of stalled drives and punts, while the Ravens’ defensive scheme is designed to limit explosive pass plays and force teams to earn points methodically. 

Neither team has shown any explosive play in recent weeks and I dont' see that changing here on Sunday.  Expect a grind out contest likely won with the better rushing game and keep the score under the Total. 

Jim's Play: 127. Steelers / Ravens UNDER

Santa Clara and New Mexico meet on Saturday in a matchup that has a good chance to land under the total because of both teams’ defensive tendencies and how they like to operate in the half court. New Mexico usually gets the reputation of a fast, athletic Mountain West team, but in recent seasons they’ve been more selective with their tempo, working through their primary scorers in set actions rather than trying to run for 40 minutes. Santa Clara, meanwhile, typically plays a more methodical West Coast Conference style, relying on solid spacing, ball movement, and inside-out offense rather than constant transition. That approach often leads to longer possessions, a lot of time used on the shot clock, and fewer total trips up and down the floor.

On the defensive end, both sides have the personnel to make life difficult. Santa Clara generally brings good size on the wings and a capable rim protector, which helps them contest threes and funnel drives into traffic. New Mexico’s guards can pressure the ball and disrupt rhythm, forcing opponents into late-clock looks and limiting easy catch-and-shoot opportunities. In a game where both coaches know they’re facing a quality opponent, you can expect more emphasis on shot selection, taking care of the ball, and limiting transition chances, rather than trading early-clock threes. If this turns into the type of physical, half-court battle it projects to be, with both teams having to work for clean looks and rely on their defense to stay in it, the pace and efficiency combination points more toward a modest final score and the game staying under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 729. Santa Clara/New Mexico UNDER

The Big Ten Championship between Indiana (12-0) and Ohio State (12-0) projects as a low-variance, possession-heavy affair that favors the UNDER the posted total near 47.5. Both teams enter unbeaten and have shown a tendency to control tempo rather than run up the score: Ohio State’s recent 27-9 win over Michigan was a methodical performance that emphasized time of possession and limiting opponent explosiveness, while Indiana’s 56-3 rout of Purdue was an outlier driven by turnovers and short fields rather than sustained rapid scoring. When you strip away those anomalous possessions, the season-long profiles for both teams point to efficient offenses that prefer long drives and complementary defense - a classic recipe for fewer total points.

Matchup details reinforce the under lean. Ohio State’s front seven is built to clog the run and force opponents into longer third-down situations, which shortens the game by increasing play clock usage and reducing the number of possessions. Indiana’s offense, while productive, often relies on sustained drives and high-percentage throws rather than quick-strike scoring; when the Hoosiers do score in bunches it has frequently come off turnovers or special-teams swings rather than standard offensive rhythm. Those situational scoring sources are less likely to repeat in a neutral-site title game where both teams emphasize ball security and coaching discipline.

If either defense forces short fields, the scoreboard can spike - but both teams have shown the ability to limit explosive plays and protect the football in big moments, which suppresses scoring variance. Special teams and penalties could create scoring opportunities, yet the coaching staffs here prioritize situational football; expect conservative fourth-down decisions and an emphasis on clock management late in halves. Those tendencies reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring shootout and increase the probability that the game stays under the number.

JIm's Play: 119. Indiana/Ohio State UNDER (Big 10 Championship)

Thursday’s matchup in Philadelphia shapes up as a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, which points to this total going over. Golden State comes in at 11–11 and still profiles as an offense-first team, averaging roughly 114 points per game behind a perimeter-heavy attack, with Stephen Curry posting 27.9 points and 4.0 assists on 47% shooting and other scorers in double figures to give them multiple creators when the ball moves and the threes are falling. Even when Curry isn’t on the floor, the Warriors can keep the tempo high with wings and guards who like to push and pull up early in the clock, and their backcourt depth adds another transition threat and capable three-and-D presence who can generate extra possessions. Philadelphia sits at 11–9 and has turned into one of the league’s more explosive offenses, averaging over 118 points per game, driven by Tyrese Maxey’s breakout season at around 32 points and 7 assists per night with strong efficiency from deep and the line, while Joel Embiid chips in his usual strong scoring, rebounding, and playmaking, stretching defenses inside and out. The Sixers have been involved in plenty of track meets, pushing pace whenever Maxey has the ball in space. With both teams leaning on the three-point line, drawing fouls at a good clip, and capable of going on extended scoring runs, plus the possibility of late-game fouling and free throws if it’s tight, the ingredients are here for four quarters of offensive fireworks, so the play is for Warriors–76ers to land over the posted total.

Jim's Play: 503. Warriors/76ers OVER

The Monday night matchup between the Giants and Patriots sets up surprisingly well for an OVER, thanks to improving offensive efficiency on both sides and two defenses that have struggled to prevent big plays throughout the season. The Giants enter averaging roughly 21-23 points per game, boosted by a more aggressive passing approach and improved red-zone efficiency, now converting at about 55%.  QB Jaxton Dart is expected to return tonight after missing the last few weeks with a concussion.  Their offense has been particularly effective on early downs, averaging just over 5.3 yards per play, a noticeable jump from previous seasons. New York’s ability to push the ball vertically against a Patriots secondary allowing around 240 passing yards per game creates multiple pathways for chunk plays and quick scoring drives. Add in the Giants’ running game hovering near 110 yards per contest, and you get a balanced attack capable of consistently putting points on the board.

New England hasn’t been elite offensively, but they’ve taken a noticeable step forward, averaging approximately 20–22 points per game behind an offense that leans on a steady run game and play-action shots downfield. Their ground attack, sitting around 118 rushing yards per game, sets up manageable down-and-distance situations and helps sustain drives. More importantly for the OVER, the Patriots’ defense has slipped considerably, surrendering roughly 24–26 points per game and giving up over 360 total yards each week. Their inability to create steady pressure on opposing quarterbacks - generating only around 2 sacks per game - leaves them exposed against teams with competent passing structures, which the Giants have developed as the season has progressed.

Both teams also rank in the lower half of the league in explosive-play prevention, with New York allowing about 5.6 yards per play and New England sitting near 5.8, pointing to a matchup ripe for big gains on both sides. Combine that with two offenses trending upward, two defenses that bend (and often break), and a primetime environment that traditionally boosts scoring, and the ingredients are firmly in place for an OVER result.

Jim's Play: Take: 483. Giants/Patriots OVER 

Sunday’s matchup in Pittsburgh has the feel of a rugged AFC playoff-style game, which points to the Bills and Steelers landing under the total. Buffalo comes in 7-4 and second in the AFC East, averaging a strong 28.3 points per game but also allowing only 22.9, a profile built more on efficiency than pure tempo. Lately the Bills have leaned into a deliberate, run-heavy approach: they’re 7-4 while ranking near the top of the league in time of possession (over 32 minutes per game), running the ball on roughly 47% of their snaps and leading the NFL at about 5 yards per carry, a style that bleeds clock and shortens games even when they move the chains. Josh Allen still gives them explosive potential, but in cold late-November conditions with a chance of rain or snow in Pittsburgh and temps hovering in the 30s and low 40s, the incentive is to protect the ball, lean on James Cook and the ground game, and play field position. 

Pittsburgh, at 6-5 and atop the AFC North, is scoring a respectable 24.9 points per game but allowing 23.9, with an offense that has been more methodical than explosive behind Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ attack is also dealing with a key blow up front, as starting left tackle Broderick Jones has been placed on injured reserve, forcing veteran Andrus Peat into the lineup and likely encouraging more conservative protection schemes, quicker throws, and a heavier dose of Najee Warren on the ground rather than deep shots. Both defenses are good enough to get off the field on third down, and with Buffalo trying to dominate time of possession and Pittsburgh protecting a reshuffled line in wintry conditions, long, clock-draining drives, red-zone field goals, and a field-position battle all set up this Bills–Steelers clash to stay under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 477. Bills/Steelers UNDER 

Jacksonville enters Sunday as the clear favorite, but the betting market has set a moderate total in the low-40s, a number that already reflects some scoring expectation while still leaving room for upside if either offense finds rhythm. The Jaguars have been capable of putting up points in bunches lately, averaging over 30 points across a recent stretch and showing improved red-zone efficiency, which makes them dangerous in any game script where possessions open up and the score becomes a shootout. Trevor Lawrence’s ability to create explosive plays downfield and the Jaguars’ willingness to push tempo on early downs increase the probability of quick scoring drives that inflate the clock and the scoreboard, especially against a Tennessee defense that has struggled to consistently stop chunk plays.

Tennessee’s recent results mask a team that can still produce points in spurts; the Titans have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs this season and have shown the capacity to move the ball through the air when their quarterback gets time and targets find separation. Tennessee’s home games have featured multiple overs this year, and their recent outings include games that reached the over more often than not, signaling a pattern that favors totals bettors when the matchup presents mismatches in the secondary. Add in the Titans’ offensive personnel questions and a defense that has given up explosive gains, and you have the kind of game where a few big plays swing the total quickly.

Jacksonville’s offensive line has been more effective in pass protection of late, giving Lawrence time to target playmakers, while Tennessee’s pass rush has been inconsistent, allowing opposing quarterbacks to extend drives and convert third downs. Turnover trends and special teams also point toward extra possessions and short fields - both of which are catalysts for scoring spikes late in halves and in the fourth quarter. When one team scores quickly, the other is forced to respond, and that game script is a classic driver of totals finishing above the posted number.

Tennessee’s propensity for higher-scoring home games, and the matchup mismatches in the secondary and pass rush will push this game over the total.     

Jim's Play: 465. Jaguars / Titans OVER 

The Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis has big AFC South implications, with the Colts sitting at 8-3 and the Texans at 6-5, and it also sets up as a solid candidate to stay under the total. The Colts bring in the league’s highest scoring offense at about 31 points per game, but they have cooled a bit in recent weeks and could be shorthanded if breakout rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who leads the team in receiving, cannot go or is limited by illness. Houston’s profile points strongly to an under: DeMeco Ryans’ defense ranks near the top of the NFL in points allowed, giving up only about 16.5 per game, and has been especially stingy in the red zone, forcing opponents to settle for field goals more often than touchdowns. C.J. Stroud’s return from a concussion is a huge boost for the Texans’ offense, but it also suggests a conservative early script built around protecting the quarterback and leaning on a balanced attack and field position rather than turning this into a pure shootout. On the other side, Daniel Jones and the Colts offense are at their best when Jonathan Taylor and the ground game are setting up play action, which means plenty of clock-chewing drives instead of constant tempo. Add in a Colts defensive front bolstered by veteran Chris Wormley and a Houston defense that tackles well and limits explosives, and you have the recipe for a physical, playoff-style divisional game where both teams move the ball but long drives, red-zone resistance and a few timely third-down stops keep the combined score under the posted total. 

Jim's Play: 461. Texans / Colts UNDER 

The Sunday matchup on November 30 between the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns sets up as a classic defensive, field-position battle, which points strongly toward the game staying under the total. San Francisco’s identity under Kyle Shanahan has been built around a physical run game, efficient but controlled passing, and a defense that consistently ranks among the league’s toughest against both the run and the pass. That type of approach chews clock, leans on long, methodical drives, and limits the number of total possessions. Cleveland, meanwhile, brings its own rugged profile, with a front seven that can generate pressure with four, plug running lanes, and force offenses into short throws and checkdowns rather than explosive plays.

On offense, both teams prefer to set up the pass with the run rather than engage in a shootout. The 49ers typically rely on a zone-run scheme and quick-timing throws that prioritize ball security, while the Browns’ attack has often leaned on their ground game and play-action, especially when they want to protect the quarterback and avoid turnovers. In a game where both defenses can get after the passer, coaches are likely to play things conservatively on early downs, which creates a lot of 3rd-and-medium situations and potential stalled drives.  The Browns have the 2nd ranked defense, 11th vs the pass and 2nd vs the rush. They should give Chrisitan McCaffrey all he can handle rushing the ball here on Sunday. 

Add in the possibility of colder late-November conditions as the winds are expected to gust up to 35 MPH with some snow and rain possible.  All signs point to a tight, physical game where points are at a premium, making the under the preferred side on the total.

Jim's Play: 473. 49ers / Browns UNDER

Texas A&M and Texas renew the Lone Star Showdown on Friday, November 28, 2025 at Darrell K. Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin in a primetime matchup that has all the ingredients for a high-scoring game that clears the total. The Aggies come in unbeaten at 11-0 and ranked No. 3, riding an offense that averages around thirty points per game behind quarterback Marcel Reed, who has thrown for more than 2,700 yards this season with KC Concepcion as his top big-play target. Texas, ranked No. 16 at 8-3, counters with Arch Manning leading a passing attack that has caught fire down the stretch and helped the Longhorns win four of their last five, and this staff has a track record of putting up points, with Texas topping 30 points per game in 2024 and finishing 13-3 in that campaign. A&M’s defense is physical up front but has given up its share of chunk plays, while Texas has been more opportunistic than dominant, which points to both quarterbacks finding favorable matchups and sustained red-zone trips rather than stalled drives. With elite skill talent on both sidelines, aggressive playcalling expected, and a rivalry atmosphere in front of a sold-out crowd and national TV audience, the most likely script is a back-and-forth showdown where both teams push into the high 20s or low 30s, sending this one over the total.

Jim's Play: 335. Texas A&M / Texas OVER 

The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles meet Friday, November 28, 2025, in a game with defensive elements that can have an impact on the total. Chicago has embraced a bend-don’t-break, run-heavy identity under its current regime that is designed to shorten games, relying on the ground game and short-to-intermediate passing to move the sticks and keep the passing game in safe, high-percentage situations. That formula naturally results in fewer total plays, with a focus on controlling the line of scrimmage and dictating the pace while a shorter, sharper passing attack limits the effectiveness of the pass rush. Chicago’s pass rush has trended upward in recent seasons, giving the Bears options to create pressure without blitzing and with numbers in coverage.

Philadelphia’s offense is also more efficient than explosive at times, and the Eagles have been increasingly willing to play bully ball with long, sustained drives built around their powerful offensive line and a run-pass balance rather than trying to beat teams in a track meet. Against a Chicago defense that plays at a slower pace and will aim to keep everything in front of them, Philadelphia should lean on the ground game and possession passing to execute sustained drives, with an emphasis on field position and ball control. Given the late November date, with both teams content to run the ball and play a grind-it-out style that favors defense and the run game while the passing games take a back seat, there’s a recipe for a game script with a limited number of explosive plays and more of a focus on third-down efficiency and punting on early downs. 

Third downs and field goals instead of touchdowns become the name of the game, with both teams aiming to control the ball and stay close while their defenses keep the other team at bay. It’s a formula for a lower-scoring affair with both teams playing keep-away and the total number of possessions limited as both teams are content to grind away at the other on the ground. That’s the under recipe and gives this game a good chance to finish close and in the lower end of a wide range rather than a shootout.

Jim's Play: 313. Bears/Eagles Under 

The Egg Bowl between Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Mississippi State on Friday, November 28, 2025, sets up as the kind of rivalry game where intensity and defense can keep the scoring in check and push this one under the total. Even in years when Ole Miss brings in a higher-powered offense, this matchup often tightens up: emotions run high, every yard is contested, and coaching staffs are quicker to lean on field position, punting, and conservative calls on early downs rather than risking game-breaking mistakes. Ole Miss figures to lean on its ground game and short passing to stay on schedule, which keeps the clock moving and limits the number of possessions, especially if they’re playing from in front and happy to bleed time in the second half.

Mississippi State, for its part, typically has success when its defense can disrupt rhythm, win on early downs, and force long-yardage situations, and the Egg Bowl atmosphere usually brings out that extra edge from the Bulldogs’ front seven. Offensively, State has shifted in recent seasons toward a more balanced, less tempo-heavy approach than the peak Air Raid days, which also lends itself to longer drives and fewer snap totals overall. Red-zone execution will be a key theme: both defenses are capable of tightening inside the 20 and forcing field goals instead of touchdowns, which is crucial for an under ticket. Add in the late November setting, where weather, nerves, and the physical toll of a long SEC season can all slow offenses just a bit, and this shapes up more like a tough, chippy rivalry battle than a wide-open shootout. With both teams expected to lean on the run, play the field-position game, and protect the ball, the most likely script favors a lower-scoring Egg Bowl that stays under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 317.  Miss/Miss St UNDER 

This primetime AFC North clash has all the ingredients for a shootout: Baltimore arrives on a roll and is favored by about -7, but Cincinnati’s offense - especially if Joe Burrow is active or even limited - can push the pace and keep drives alive, while the Ravens’ offense has enough playmakers to answer back. Baltimore’s recent form has been strong, and the Ravens have leaned on a balanced attack that now includes a powerful running game and explosive receiving options; that balance forces opponents to defend the entire field and opens up big-play opportunities in both the pass and run game. Cincinnati, despite a 3-8 record, has shown it can score in bunches when its passing game clicks, and the Bengals’ recent matchups with Baltimore have produced plenty of combined points - a trend that supports the OVER.

Matchup dynamics favor scoring: the Ravens have been productive on offense and the Bengals have struggled to consistently stop explosive plays, which creates a favorable environment for quick strikes and sustained drives that inflate the scoreboard. Turnovers and special-teams swings could add to the scoring volatility; when either side turns the ball over in opponent territory, short fields often translate into easy points. Weather and venue factors at M&T Bank Stadium are not expected to be extreme, so neither team should be forced into a one-dimensional game plan that would suppress scoring.

With both teams capable of quick scoring, a likely uptick in offensive snaps if Burrow plays, and a market total around 52, the smart lean for Thanksgiving night is the OVER - expect a fast tempo, chunk plays, and enough scoring swings to push this game past the number

Jim's Play: 309. Bengals/Ravens OVER

The New York Knicks (10-6) enter this contest riding momentum from a 113-100 win over Brooklyn, where Karl-Anthony Towns broke out of his shooting slump with 37 points on 14-for-20 shooting. Alongside Jalen Brunson’s steady playmaking, the Knicks have developed into one of the more balanced offenses in the East, averaging 120.3 points per game while ranking near the top of the conference in three-point production at 15.5 makes per game. Their ability to stretch defenses with perimeter shooting, combined with Towns’ interior scoring, makes them difficult to contain for extended stretches.  

Charlotte (4-13), despite their struggles, has shown flashes of offensive firepower. Miles Bridges leads the Hornets with 22 points per game, while rookie Kon Knueppel has been a revelation, averaging 28 points per contest. The Hornets rank among the league’s leaders in three-point attempts, knocking down 14.2 per game, and their pace of play often forces opponents into shootouts. Defensively, however, Charlotte has been porous, allowing opponents to average 118.7 points per game, which sets the stage for New York’s scorers to thrive.  

The Knicks have cleared the 110-point mark in three of their last four games, while the Hornets’ defensive inefficiencies consistently push contests into the 240+ range. Both teams’ reliance on perimeter shooting increases variance and scoring runs, which favors an over outcome. Additionally, Charlotte’s tendency to fall behind early often leads to extended garbage-time scoring, padding totals late.  

Jim's Play: 529. Knicks/Hornets OVER 

Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan meet in another classic midweek MACtion matchup, but this one sets up far differently than the typical high-scoring, wild-tempo MAC shootouts. Both teams have leaned heavily on their running games throughout the season, partly by design and partly due to inconsistent quarterback play. Western Michigan’s offense has been at its best when grinding out long drives and keeping possessions methodical rather than explosive, and their passing game hasn’t shown the consistency needed to push totals upward. Eastern Michigan mirrors that identity: a run-first attack, a conservative approach on early downs, and a passing game that tends to settle for short, low-risk completions. When two ball-control offenses face off, clock bleed becomes a major factor - and it pushes games toward the UNDER.

Defensively, both teams match up well against what the other wants to do. Western Michigan’s front seven has been solid against the run, forcing opponents into slow, low-efficiency drives. Eastern Michigan’s defense, while not dominant, is fundamentally sound and rarely gives up quick-strike plays. Neither offense is built for explosive chunk gains, so long fields and multi-play drives will likely be the norm. Add in the November weather factor - cold, swirling winds, and potentially slick field conditions - and both coaching staffs are likely to lean even more into the ground game and field position. That’s a recipe for fewer possessions, fewer scoring opportunities, and extended stretches where the clock keeps rolling.

This rivalry usually plays tight, physical, and lower-scoring than expected, and the 2025 edition should follow that script. Expect a grind-it-out contest with both teams trading field goals rather than touchdowns. 

Jim's Play: 301. Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan UNDER (MAC Total of the Month)

Sunday’s matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders features two struggling teams, each entering the contest with a 2–8 record, and both dealing with significant offensive inconsistencies that point strongly toward a low-scoring game. Cleveland’s offense has been among the least productive units in the NFL, averaging just over sixteen points per game. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 937 yards this season, while running back Quinshon Judkins leads the team with 620 rushing yards, but the Browns have struggled to generate explosive plays or sustained drives. With Gabriel not in Sunday's game, the Browns have announced that Shedeur Sanders will be getting start.  The Raiders aren’t faring much better on the offensive side: quarterback Geno Smith leads the team with 2,082 passing yards, and running back Ashton Jeanty has produced 554 rushing yards, yet Las Vegas has consistently fallen into long scoring droughts and remains near the bottom of the league in points per game.

The Raiders defensive unit, while not elite, has benefited from the slow pace and inefficiency of their offenses, which naturally shortens games and suppresses scoring. The Browns have the 2nd rated defense in the NFL and top rushing defense. Cleveland’s defense thrives when forcing opponents into long, methodical drives, and the Raiders have shown an ability to limit big plays, even if they give up yardage between the 20s. With neither team equipped to push the tempo or create frequent explosive plays, this matchup sets up as a grind-it-out contest dominated by field position, conservative play-calling, and long stretches of clock-draining possessions.

Given the sluggish offenses, the reliance on short passing and predictable run schemes, and the tendency for both teams to stall in the red zone, this game profiles as a strong candidate to go UNDER the total. 

Jim's Play: 257. Browns / Raiders UNDER 

Sunday’s Seahawks-Titans matchup sets up as a grind, and the profile points to the Under. Seattle arrives at 7-3 with a top-tier defense (allowing 19.3 ppg, 6th) and a balanced offense that doesn’t need to force pace on the road. Quarterback Sam Darnold (2,541 pass yards), Kenneth Walker III (606 rush yards), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,146 rec yards) headline the production, but Seattle has increasingly leaned on defense and situational football to win-an approach that shortens games. 

 On the other side, Tennessee is 1-9 and ranks at or near the bottom of the league offensively: 14.3 points per game (32nd), 163.6 passing yards (30th), 78.9 rushing yards (32nd). QB Cam Ward (1,954 pass yards), Tony Pollard (502 rush yards), and Chig Okonkwo (337 rec yards) top the Titans’ stat board, but sustained drives have been elusive and explosive plays scarce. 

Put together, Seattle’s stingy scoring defense plus Tennessee’s league-worst output create a narrow scoring corridor. If the Seahawks play from ahead, they can lean on the run and their pass rush; if the game stays tight, the Titans’ conservative approach and third-down struggles keep the clock moving. Either way, the matchup math favors limited possessions and red-zone stalls, making this a strong lean for the game to stay Under the total.

Jim's Play: 249. Seahawks/Titans UNDER 

Michigan enters at 9-1 overall, 6-1 in the Big Ten, still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth. The Wolverines have leaned on their elite defense all season, allowing just 14.2 points per game, ranking among the nation’s best. Their defensive front, led by Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, has consistently shut down opposing run games, while their secondary has limited explosive plays. Offensively, Michigan has been efficient but not explosive, averaging 29 points per game, with quarterback J.J. McCarthy managing the offense and running back Donovan Edwards providing balance. Their style of play emphasizes ball control and field position, which naturally keeps scoring totals lower.

Maryland comes in at 6-4, 4-3 in the Big Ten, looking to secure bowl positioning. The Terrapins have been inconsistent offensively, averaging 25 points per game, but quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled against elite defenses, throwing multiple interceptions in key games. Maryland’s offensive line has been shaky, and facing Michigan’s pass rush will likely force them into a conservative game plan. Defensively, the Terps have been respectable, allowing 23 points per game, and they’ve shown the ability to limit opponents in the red zone.

Given Michigan’s defensive dominance and Maryland’s offensive struggles against top-tier competition, this number feels inflated. The Wolverines are built to grind games out, and Maryland’s defense is capable of keeping the score respectable even in defeat. Expect Michigan’s defense to dictate tempo, Maryland’s offense to struggle to sustain drives, and both teams to lean on conservative play-calling. With Michigan’s ball-control approach and Maryland’s limitations, this matchup projects as a low-scoring affair. Play the game to go Under the total points on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 143. Michigan/Maryland UNDER

Buffalo enters Week 12 at 7-3, riding momentum after a high-scoring win over Tampa Bay. Quarterback Josh Allen accounted for six total touchdowns in that game, but he also threw two interceptions, highlighting the risk of turnovers against a disciplined defense. The Bills’ offense has been explosive at times, averaging over 26 points per game, yet their production has been inconsistent when facing top-tier defenses. On the road in Houston, Allen will be challenged by a Texans unit that ranks among the league’s best in both yards and points allowed, surrendering just 16.3 points per game. Buffalo’s defense has also been stout, holding opponents under 20 points in four of their last six contests, which further supports a lower-scoring projection.

Houston comes in at 5-5, fresh off a gritty 16-13 win over Tennessee. The Texans’ offense has been limited without star quarterback C.J. Stroud, leaning on Davis Mills to manage the game rather than push the ball downfield. Houston has averaged just 18 points per game over their last month, relying heavily on their defense to keep them competitive. That defense has been elite, ranking first in total yards allowed and consistently shutting down opposing passing attacks. Against Buffalo, the Texans will look to slow tempo, force Allen into mistakes, and grind out possessions with their run game.

Houston’s defensive strength and offensive limitations, combined with Buffalo’s tendency to struggle against top defenses, this number feels inflated. Both teams are built to win through defense, and the Texans’ ability to control pace at home should keep scoring in check. Expect Buffalo’s offense to be tested by Houston’s elite defense, while the Texans’ conservative approach limits explosive plays. With both teams leaning on their defenses and the Texans’ offense lacking firepower, this Thursday night showdown projects as a grind-it-out battle. Play the game to go Under the total points.

Jim's Play: 111. Bills/Texans UNDER

This Wednesday night clash between the Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat at Kaseya Center sets up as a high-scoring affair, with the best play being on the game to go Over the total points.  The Warriors enter at 9-7, wrapping up a long road trip with their second game in Florida after a tough loss to Orlando. Despite the setback, Stephen Curry remains the focal point, averaging nearly 28 points per game, and his ability to stretch defenses with deep shooting ensures Golden State can push pace. The Warriors have also seen strong contributions from Moses Moody, who poured in 32 points against New Orleans earlier in the trip, and Jimmy Butler III, who adds another scoring option after being acquired in last season’s trade. Golden State’s offense has been humming, averaging over 115 points per game, but their defense has been inconsistent, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 46% from the field.

Miami comes in at 8-6, fresh off a narrow 115-113 win over the Knicks.  With Bam Adebayo battling injuries and Tyler Herro sidelined, Miami has relied on role players like Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. to step up offensively. The Heat have been one of the league’s highest-scoring teams at home, averaging 124.6 points per game in Miami, and their ability to push tempo alongside Golden State sets the stage for fireworks.

The Warriors rank among the league leaders in three-pointers made per game, while Miami has consistently attacked the rim and converted at a high percentage. With both teams capable of putting up 120+ points, the Over is the logical play. Expect Curry and Moody to lead Golden State’s perimeter attack. With both teams thriving in up-tempo play and defenses showing vulnerability, this matchup projects to be a shootout. Play the game to go Over the total points on Wednesday night.

Jim's Play: 505. Warriors / Heat OVER 

This Tuesday night showdown between the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena sets up as a high-scoring affair, and the best angle is to play the game to go Over the total. The Lakers enter at 10-4, riding momentum from a convincing 119-95 win over Milwaukee where Luka Doncic exploded for 41 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. Doncic has been the league’s top scorer at over 34 points per game, and his ability to push pace and create offense has transformed the Lakers into one of the NBA’s most dangerous attacks. Alongside him, Austin Reaves has emerged as a secondary scorer averaging nearly 28 points per game, while Deandre Ayton provides interior presence and rebounding. The Lakers’ offense has been humming, averaging well over 115 points per game, and with the possible return of LeBron James from injury, their scoring ceiling only rises.

The Jazz, meanwhile, come in at 5-8, but they’ve shown they can light up the scoreboard. In their last outing, they outlasted Chicago in a 150-147 double-overtime thriller, led by Lauri Markkanen’s 47 points and Keyonte George’s 33. Utah has leaned heavily on Markkanen’s offensive brilliance, as he ranks among the league’s top scorers at over 30 points per game. While their defense has been porous-allowing opponents to shoot nearly 45% from the field-their offensive firepower ensures they can keep pace in shootouts.

Both teams thrive in up-tempo play, and with the Jazz struggling defensively while the Lakers push pace behind Doncic’s playmaking, this game projects to be a track meet.  Expect fireworks in Los Angeles, with Doncic and Reaves leading the Lakers’ attack while Markkanen keeps the Jazz competitive. With both teams capable of putting up 120+ points, the safest play is on the scoreboard. Take the game to go Over the total on Tuesday night.

Jim's Play: 569. Jazz/Lakers OVER 

The Dallas Cowboys enter Monday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders as slight road favorites, and the matchup sets up as a pivotal Week 11 clash with betting implications on both the side and total.  The Cowboys come in at 3-5-1, fresh off a bye week that allowed them to regroup after a disappointing home loss to Arizona. Dallas has struggled to find consistency, but quarterback Dak Prescott remains capable of exploiting a Raiders secondary that has been vulnerable to big plays. Running back Javonte Williams has given the Cowboys balance in the ground game, and his ability to finish drives in the red zone could be critical under the prime-time lights. Defensively, Dallas has been uneven, ranking near the bottom against opposing wide receivers, which means the Raiders will look to attack through the air with their vertical passing game.

The Raiders, meanwhile, limp into this contest at 2-7, riding a three-game losing streak. Their offense has been inconsistent, scoring just 10 points in last week’s loss to Denver, and they’ve struggled to protect quarterback Geno Smith behind a shaky offensive line. While the Raiders have shown flashes at home, their inability to sustain drives and finish in the red zone has been a recurring issue. Defensively, Las Vegas has been competitive but often worn down late in games, which could be problematic against a rested Cowboys team.

The Cowboys have been shaky against the spread this season, but their bye week and the Raiders’ offensive struggles tilt the edge toward Dallas. 

Expect the Cowboys to control the tempo with Prescott’s efficiency and Williams’ production on the ground. Against a Raiders team that has failed to generate momentum, Dallas should find enough balance to secure the win. Take the Cowboys on the money Line to win this Monday Night Football matchup.

Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities, and with Prescott capable of pushing the ball downfield and the Raiders likely forced into catch-up mode, points should pile up. The prime-time stage often brings offensive fireworks, and this game sets up no differently.  The Cowboys have the 31st ranked defense, 28th vs rush and 28th vs pass. Only Cincinnati is worse than Dallas.  Play the Over in Cowboys vs. Raiders.

Jim's Play: 477. Cowboys/Raiders Over

Sunday’s AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field is shaping up as a defensive battle, with the weather conditions and both teams’ tendencies pointing toward the game staying under the total of 39.5 points.

The Ravens enter at 4-5, riding a three-game winning streak after a 27-19 victory over Minnesota. Lamar Jackson has been steady but not explosive, throwing for 176 yards last week while adding 36 on the ground. Derrick Henry continues to provide balance in the run game, but Baltimore’s offense has leaned on efficiency rather than fireworks. Defensively, the Ravens have improved in recent weeks, holding opponents under 20 points in back-to-back contests, and their ability to pressure quarterbacks should be a key factor against Cleveland.

The Browns, at 2-7, remain in rebuilding mode. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel showed flashes against the Jets with two touchdown passes, but Cleveland’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring and total yards. Running back Quinshon Judkins has been a bright spot, yet the offensive line has struggled to open consistent lanes. Defensively, however, the Browns remain formidable, ranking second overall in total defense and top-five against the pass. Their ability to slow down Jackson’s aerial attack and force Baltimore into long drives makes this matchup particularly favorable for a low-scoring outcome.

Weather will play a role as well. Cleveland’s forecast for Sunday calls for mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid-40s. But it's the wind that is most concern with winds up to 35 MPG.  And if you have ever played football you know what havoc the winds can to do a game from passing to kicking and helping defenses. With both teams already leaning on the run and short passing, the wind and cool temperatures should further suppress scoring opportunities.

While the Ravens’ recent surge makes them the side to back, the combination of Cleveland’s defensive strength, Baltimore’s methodical offensive approach, and the weather forecast all point toward a grind-it-out divisional contest.

Jim's Play:  471. Ravens/Browns UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

The Week 11 AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at Empower Field at Mile High sets up as a defensive battle. Kansas City enters at 5-4, fighting to stay in the division race after a disappointing loss to Buffalo before their bye. While Patrick Mahomes has historically dominated Denver, the Chiefs’ offense has been inconsistent this season, averaging just 22.7 points per game and struggling to find explosive plays without a true deep-threat receiver. Their defense, however, has been the strength of the team, ranking top-10 in scoring defense and holding opponents under 20 points in five of their last seven contests. Kansas City’s ability to generate pressure and force turnovers has kept them competitive even when the offense stalls.

Denver, meanwhile, comes in at 8-2, riding a seven-game winning streak and boasting a perfect 5-0 home record. Quarterback Bo Nix has managed games efficiently, but the Broncos’ success has been built on their defense, which ranks top-five in points allowed at just 18.2 per game. Denver has been particularly dominant at home, where crowd noise and altitude have helped them limit opponents’ offensive rhythm. Their secondary has been opportunistic, and their pass rush has consistently disrupted opposing quarterbacks.

Both teams have offensive talent, the matchup trends toward a lower-scoring affair. The Chiefs’ offensive struggles combined with Denver’s defensive dominance at home suggest long drives, fewer explosive plays, and a game decided by field position. Historically, meetings between these two teams in Denver have leaned toward defensive battles, and with playoff implications raising intensity, both defenses should dictate the pace.

Jim's Play: 473. Chiefs/Broncos UNDER 

Sunday’s NFC West clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair. San Francisco enters at 6-4, looking to rebound after a tough divisional loss to the Rams. Quarterback Brock Purdy is expected back from a toe injury, and his return should stabilize the 49ers’ passing attack, which ranks top-5 in the NFL in yards per game. Christian McCaffrey remains one of the league’s most versatile threats. While the offense has been potent, San Francisco’s defense has shown cracks, giving up 42 points to Los Angeles last week and ranking middle of the pack in scoring defense.

Arizona, meanwhile, comes in at 3-6, but the Cardinals have been competitive at home and are coming off a 44-22 loss to Seattle where their offense still managed over 350 total yards. The Cardinals’ defense, however, has been a liability, ranking bottom-10 in points allowed and struggling to contain explosive passing games. Against a 49ers offense loaded with playmakers, Arizona will likely need to trade scores to stay competitive.

San Francisco has cleared the total in three of its last four games, while Arizona’s defensive issues have consistently pushed their contests higher-scoring. Expect fireworks in Glendale. With Brock Purdy returning to lead San Francisco’s explosive offense, this divisional matchup is primed to go over the total.

Jim's Play: 469. Niners/Cardinals OVER

The Week 11 NFC West clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at SoFi Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair, with the angle favoring the game to go over the total of 48.5 points.

Both teams enter at 7-2, riding four-game winning streaks and battling for first place in the division. Seattle’s offense has been rolling behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who completed 86% of his passes over the last two weeks and led the Seahawks to a 44-22 win over Arizona in Week 10. Running back Zach Charbonnet continues to provide balance, averaging nearly six yards per carry, while Seattle’s receiving corps has been efficient in creating explosive plays. The Seahawks rank top-10 in scoring offense, and their ability to stretch the field vertically has kept defenses off balance.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been equally impressive. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been red-hot, throwing 13 touchdowns with no interceptions over his last three games. Los Angeles is averaging over 30 points per game during their current win streak, with wideouts Davonta Adams and Puka Nacua consistently producing chunk plays. Defensively, the Rams have talent, but they’ve been vulnerable against strong passing attacks, allowing opponents to move the ball through the air.

While both defenses are capable of generating pressure, the offensive firepower on both sides makes the over the stronger play. Seattle has hit overs in three of its last four games, while the Rams have cleared the total in back-to-back contests. With two quarterbacks in rhythm, explosive playmakers on both rosters, and playoff implications raising the stakes, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 467. Seahawks /Rams OVER 

Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium is primed for points. Chicago enters at 6-3, riding momentum after back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Giants. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been the spark, averaging over 260 passing yards per game while adding mobility that stresses defenses. The Bears’ offense ranks 7th in the NFL in scoring (26.6 points per game), and wide receiver Rome Odunze has emerged as a reliable big-play threat. However, Chicago’s defense has been a liability, ranking 28th in scoring defense and allowing 27.4 points per game, which has consistently pushed their contests into high-scoring territory.

Minnesota, meanwhile, sits at 4-5, looking to rebound after a 27-19 loss to Baltimore. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has shown flashes of promise, throwing for 248 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens, but turnovers remain an issue. The Vikings’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 22nd in scoring, yet with playmakers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they have the ability to stretch defenses vertically. At home, Minnesota has struggled to close games, but their offensive potential combined with Chicago’s defensive weaknesses sets up a favorable scoring environment.

The Bears’ offensive surge under Williams, paired with their defensive struggles, makes the over the stronger play. Chicago has hit overs in three of its last four games, while Minnesota’s passing attack is well-positioned to exploit the Bears’ secondary. With both teams fighting for divisional positioning and capable of trading scores, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 461. Bears/Vikings OVER

Friday night’s clash between the Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center promises fireworks, with both teams’ offensive profiles pointing toward the game going over the total of 236.5 points.  The Rockets enter at 7-3, riding a three-game home winning streak and averaging over 120 points per game during that stretch. Kevin Durant has been the steadying force, scoring 23 in their most recent win over Washington, while Alperen Sengun continues to shine as a versatile big man, averaging a near triple-double with points, rebounds, and assists. Houston’s pace and efficiency at home have been outstanding, and they’ve hit the over in eight of their first eleven games, showing a consistent trend toward high-scoring contests.

Portland, meanwhile, comes in at 6-5, fresh off a 125-117 win over New Orleans. The Blazers’ young core of Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons has provided explosive scoring, while Jerami Grant adds veteran stability. Portland thrives in transition and has averaged nearly 121 points per game over its last three outings. Defensively, however, the Blazers have struggled to contain opponents, allowing nearly 119 points per game, which sets the stage for another shootout against Houston’s high-powered attack.

Portland plays fast and looks for high-efficiency shots, while Houston’s offense thrives on corner threes, rim attacks, and free-throw opportunities. With both teams capable of pushing the tempo and exploiting defensive lapses, this matchup is tailor-made for points. Expect a high-octane battle in Houston, with the Trail Blazers and Rockets combining for plenty of scoring. The game is primed to go over the total, delivering fans an entertaining Friday night shootout.

Jim's Play: 507. Trail Blazers / Rockets OVER 

This Wednesday night MAC showdown between Toledo and Miami (Ohio) at Yager Stadium sets up as a defensive grind, with both teams’ strengths pointing toward the game staying under the posted total of 45.5 points. Toledo enters at 5-4, fresh off a dominant 42-3 win over Northern Illinois, but the Rockets’ identity this season has been built on their elite defense, which ranks second nationally in total yards allowed and top-five against the pass. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage and limit explosive plays has consistently shortened games, forcing opponents into long, inefficient drives. 

Miami (Ohio), also 5-4, leans on a veteran defense and a measured run game. The RedHawks’ offense averages just 25 points per game, and when their ground attack stalls, they struggle to sustain drives. Against Toledo’s brick-wall front, Miami will likely find it difficult to reach its usual rushing benchmarks, which has historically been the key to their success.  While Toledo’s offense has shown flashes-quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for over 300 yards last week-the Rockets are not a tempo team. They thrive on methodical possessions, winning first downs and grinding out 8-10 play drives. That style, combined with Miami’s conservative approach, points toward a slower pace and fewer possessions overall. Miami’s defense, ranked top-40 nationally in scoring defense, is capable of holding Toledo in check, especially in the red zone where the Rockets have occasionally stalled.

Two defenses ranked among the MAC’s best, offenses that prefer balance over explosiveness, and a rivalry game where field position and special teams could dictate the outcome. With both teams fighting for MAC East positioning, expect a tight, possession-heavy contest where points come at a premium.

Pregame angle: Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) is primed to stay under the total, with both defenses controlling the pace and limiting scoring opportunities in a midweek MAC grinder.

Jim's Play: 307.  Toledo/Miami UNDER

Detroit comes in riding a strong early run, sitting 7-2 and showing signs of a revitalized offence and defensive edge. They’re averaging around 115 points per game while holding opponents to roughly 110. Washington, meanwhile, is struggling,  1-9 so far and giving up about 128 points per game on the road. That kind of disparity suggests Detroit’s pace and scoring potential will likely be unchecked.

On top of that, the betting totals have been set around the mid-230s range (235 to 236.5) in this matchup. Given Washington’s porous defence and Detroit’s emerging offensive rhythm, and the fact Washington tends to allow a lot of points on the road, it’s logical to expect both teams to push the tempo and trade scores.

So for this contest, expect a fast-paced affair with the Pistons dictating tempo and Washington forced into trying to keep up. All signs point toward the total going over, with the final combined score likely landing somewhere over 240.

Jim's Play: 519. Wizards/Pistons OVER 

11/09 06:10 PM PT / 9:10 PM ET 

NBA   (513) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES  VS  (514) SACRAMENTO KINGS

Take: 513. T'Wolves/Kings OVER 236.5

Minnesota comes in with a 5-4 record, riding a wave of momentum after a 137-97 dismantling of the Utah Jazz in which Anthony Edwards exploded for 37 points and Julius Randle recorded a triple-double. Offensively they’re firing - averaging around 118 points per game while shooting near 50 %. Meanwhile Sacramento is 3-6 and at home, fresh off a 132-101 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder where their defense got exposed.

From a betting perspective, the over/under is set at 236.5 points. Here’s why the over is appealing: Minnesota’s games have hit the over in eight of their last nine versus Western Conference teams. Sacramento, despite being at home, has been allowing opponents to feast - they’re giving up over 121 points per game recently. On the offensive side, both teams have enough firepower: Edwards rekindled his elite scoring, Randle is distributing, and on the Kings’ side, the guard tandem of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan give them scoring punch, while their defensive lapses invite high totals.

Also, the narrative suggests Minnesota should cover the spread (they are favored by roughly 5.5) and the tempo of the game is likely to be up-and-down - Sacramento will need to push the pace given their margin for error is thin. According to one betting preview, six of Sacramento’s nine games this season have gone over the 234.5 line or higher.

Expect a lively tempo, plenty of baskets, and minimal defensive resistance from the Kings.

JIm's Play : 513. T'Wolves/Kings OVER 

The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings will match up on Sunday  Week 10. The total is in the high-40s (48–49) as of Sunday afternoon, which is on target with two teams that have each flirted with shootout territory at different points: Baltimore has shown an explosive passing and rushing balance led by Lamar Jackson and playmakers who delivered a 28–6 bounce-back win last week, while Minnesota, buoyed by J.J. McCarthy’s resurgence and a 27–24 win over Detroit, has leaned into quicker tempo and efficient third-down offense at U.S. Bank Stadium. The matchup dynamics favor the over: Baltimore can create chunk plays through Jackson’s arm and quarterback-designed runs, and Minnesota can respond with a multi-route passing attack and Aaron Jones’ downhill running that forces defenses into conflict; both teams have also shown recent defensive vulnerabilities on extended drives and in giving up big-play yardage, which would raise the odds of long possessions and quick-scoring responses instead of a low-possession, slow-paced slog. Both teams in need of momentum in the third quarter of the season should push the coaches to be aggressive on fourth downs and in two-minute windows - coaching tendencies that typically help to lift totals. Bettors hunting value would have their best chance by targeting the game to go over the listed total.

Jim's Play: 261. Ravens / Vikings OVER 

Tampa Bay hosts New England at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, and the setup tilts to the Buccaneers. The Patriots arrive 7-2 behind rookie Drake Maye and a top-ranked run defense, but they’re shorthanded with Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte ruled out, which narrows their margin on the road. Tampa Bay is 6-2, back from a bye, and gets a timely boost with starting right tackle Luke Goedeke activated, helping stabilize protection for Baker Mayfield. The Bucs’ pass rush has been productive, tied for fifth in sacks, and that pressure plus home crowd noise can bother a young quarterback. Red zone is another swing area: Tampa’s efficiency has lagged, but the Patriots have struggled badly defending inside the 20. Both these offenses can put up big numbers.  The Patriots are 12th in the league in total offense, 19th in rushing and 9th in passing. The Bucs are 17th in overall offense, 24th in rushing and 13th passing. Both teams likely to put up a log of passes here today. I'm taking the OVER. 

Jim's Play: 263. Patriots / Buccaneeres OVER

Buffalo comes in off a strong stretch, with its defense ranked 12th in yards allowed and 9th in points allowed per game, at roughly 311.3 yards and ~20.9 points respectively. Meanwhile, Miami’s offense is improving steadily, particularly in its short-pass game — a 75% completion rate in certain zones validates the notion they’re finding more rhythm. Both teams also rank among the league’s best in third-down conversion rates (Bills ~69.9%, Dolphins ~67.8%), which strongly supports sustained drives, red-zone trips and ultimately higher scoring. The market’s expected point total sits around 50.5.

So what drives the “Over”? Buffalo still has explosive offensive capability under Josh Allen, and although Miami’s record (2-7) looks rough, those numbers largely mask an offense that has shown bursts and a defense that’s prone to giving up chunk plays. And for Miami, facing a Bills team that attacked efficiently ahead — you can expect some back-and?forth. Combine the statistical foundation (efficient third downs, red-zone conversion potential) with recent trends and the divisional familiarity, and you’ve got the recipe for a higher-scoring affair. Expect multiple possessions, likely at least one defensive breakdown or big play, and both teams moving the ball enough to push the total beyond 50.

In short: I’m expecting this one to clear the line — Over the total is the lean.

Jim's Play: 257. Bills / Dolphins OVER 

The Golden State Warriors will host the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night at Chase Center in San Francisco. The two teams are both coming in with what could potentially set up as a track meet, as both teams are capable of exploding for points in a hurry.  Golden State is coming in at 4–3 and has been good at home, winning all three of their games at Chase Center, with their opponents averaging nearly 118 points per game. The team also has gone over the total in four of its first seven games, which should allow it to post enough offense to keep up with Phoenix. It is also hard to bet against Stephen Curry when he is in form, and he will likely pick apart a perimeter defense that has been soft at times for Phoenix. The Warriors like to push the pace, which, coupled with an able-bodied bench that averages over 40 points per game, should produce buckets all night.

Phoenix comes into this game at 3-4, but the Suns showed last game against San Antonio that its offense has started to gel, winning 130-118, as Devin Booker and Bradley Beal continue to find a rhythm as a backcourt duo. Phoenix has topped the 115-point mark in three of its past four games, but its defense has been lacking, meaning that Golden State’s offense should be able to keep pace. On paper, the Suns have not been able to slow down top guards in any of their games, meaning that Curry  will be able to produce.

The game itself should be a classic shootout, with Golden State running and  pushing the pace and sinking three-pointers, while Phoenix will answer with isolation plays and fast-break chances. Statistically, the two teams both rank in the top half of the league in possessions per game, and neither has shown the defensive chops to contain the other team, meaning that we are likely to see a high-scoring game.

Jim's Play: 509. Suns/Warriors OVER 

The Monday night clash between the Arizona Cardinals (2-5) and Dallas Cowboys (3-4-1) sets up as a sneaky shootout. Despite both teams struggling midseason, the ingredients for a high-scoring affair are in place.

Arizona’s offense, led by veteran Jacoby Brissett in Kyler Murray’s absence, has quietly remained competitive. They’ve lost five straight, but none by more than four points, and they’ve scored 23+ in three of those games. Dallas’s defense, typically a strength, was gashed for 44 points last week by Denver. Their secondary has been vulnerable, and they’ve allowed 27+ points in four of their last five outings.  Both teams trend OVER: Dallas is 6-2 to the Over this season, and Arizona’s last three games have all cleared the posted totals. 

With a total set at 54.5, this game could easily eclipse that mark if both offenses find rhythm early. Look for explosive plays, red zone efficiency, and a few defensive breakdowns to push this one OVER.

As for the side play. 

Dallas is undefeated at AT&T Stadium this season (2-0-1), and they’ve historically performed well in prime time.  QB Dak Prescott, despite a rough Week 8, is still the more dynamic passer. Brissett is serviceable but lacks the upside to stretch the field consistently.  After surrendering 44 to Denver, expect Matte Eberflus's unit to tighten up. Arizona’s offensive line has struggled, and Brissett has been sacked 7 times in his last two starts. Dallas sits second in the NFC East and needs this win to stay in playoff contention.  They are in a must win spot at this point in the season. Arizona, meanwhile, is reeling and coming off a bye with little momentum.  The Cardinals are in last in the NFC West and all three teams above them have five wins. 

I'll take the Cowboys here on Monday, but I will take them on the Money Line to just win the game and not have to cover the spread. 

Seattle has found a lot of offensive success through the first half of the season. Sam Darnold has connected with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for over 1,700 yards and 12 touchdowns in just his first seven starts for the Seahawks. Smith-Njigba is leading the NFL in receiving yards through Week 8 and his connection with Darnold has helped Seattle have one of the most explosive passing games in the league. With the help of Kenneth Walker III on the ground, the Seahawks have created a complete and balanced offense that should move the ball against a Washington defense that has shown vulnerability to big plays in 2025. Seattle should be able to find gaps in the Commanders defense and continue their scoring ways on Sunday night.

The return of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels from injury has provided the Commanders with a major offensive upgrade. Daniels has shown great poise in the pocket and also possesses the athleticism and vision to run for positive yardage. His combination of passing and rushing ability will create problems for Seattle’s defense, which will have to respect the possibility of him breaking the pocket for chunks of yards at any time. Daniels will have the weapons he needs to connect with if star wide receiver Terry McLaurin is unable to go in this contest, as Jahan Dotson and Brian Robinson Jr. have all proven to be reliable targets in their own right. With the game being at home and the stage of primetime, Washington has all the motivation they need to keep up with a potent Seahawks offense, and that should be reflected in an aggressive and attacking game plan from coach Dan Quinn and his staff.

The current total is being set around 47-48.5 points and all signs point to this game going OVER. Seattle has been scoring at a rate of just under 27 points per game this season, while Washington has the talent and offense to also string together drives in the scoring column, especially when Daniels is at the helm. The defenses have both looked weak at times and especially have struggled when games are on the line in the red zone, which leads to the possibility of touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. Daniels and Darnold are both athletic enough to extend plays and open up the game with their feet. This game could very well turn into an offensive shootout, and with two of the best games in the NFL facing off against each other, the OVER is the smart play.

Jim's Play: Take: 473. Seahawks/Commanders Over 

Kansas City and Buffalo have developed one of the NFL’s top rivalries this decade, and Sunday’s meeting has all the markings of a playoff game, which is not a surprise given the high level of play both teams are showcasing. For the Chiefs, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been heating up in recent weeks, having tossed nine touchdowns over the past three games, and the addition of Rashee Rice to the mix gives Kansas City another trusted target along with Travis Kelce and burner Xavier Worthy. Combined with the strong production from running back, the Chiefs offense has been efficient and balanced all season. In an area of weakness for the Bills’ defense, the run game, Kansas City should have an easy time establishing the ground attack, sustaining drives, and putting points on the board. Buffalo has had one of the NFL’s most efficient home winning streaks in recent weeks, and quarterback Josh Allen is always at his best in front of a Bills’ home crowd. Running back James Cook III  who already has seven rushing touchdowns in eight games, and Buffalo has the weapons to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense, score for score. If there’s one area of Kansas City’s defense that the Bills can exploit, it’s against mobile quarterbacks. The Chiefs have been opportunistic, but the defense is playing at a step slower than their opponents’ quarterbacks are capable of attacking with. Allen’s ability to extend plays with his legs and make throws downfield will be the key to keeping Buffalo’s offense going.

For these reasons, the betting market has set the over/under for this game at 52.5 points, the highest of the week. Both teams are in the top ten in scoring offense, and the last 10 games between these teams have featured six OVER games. When you add in the big-play ability of the offenses for both teams, led by two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in Mahomes and Allen, the stage is set for yet another high-scoring affair.

This Week 9 meeting between Kansas City and Buffalo checks all the boxes of a potential classic, featuring two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks at the helm, explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball, and the playoff implications that are present with every game this late in the season. Expect this game to be a back-and-forth affair full of momentum swings, big plays, and the scoreboard to keep climbing at both ends. The smart bet is for this game to go OVER the total points.

Jim's Play: Take: 471. Chiefs/Bills OVER 

The Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) travel to Nissan Stadium to face the Tennessee Titans (1-7) on Sunday, November 2, 2025, in a Week 9 AFC matchup. With the over/under set at 43.5 points, the offensive firepower of Justin Herbert and the Chargers combined with Tennessee’s defensive injuries make the OVER the smart play.

The Chargers come into this game riding momentum after a dominant 37-10 win over Minnesota in Week 8. Justin Herbert has been in peak form, leading the NFL in passing yards and ranking among the top three in touchdown passes. His chemistry with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston has given Los Angeles a vertical passing attack that can stretch defenses, while Kimani Vidal has provided balance on the ground with his physical running style. Against a Titans defense missing key starters like Jeffery Simmons and Arden Key, Herbert should have plenty of time to operate and push the ball downfield. The Chargers have averaged 27 points per game over their last three outings, and their offensive rhythm suggests another high-scoring performance is on the horizon.

For Tennessee, the season has been a struggle, but there are reasons to believe they can contribute to the total. Rookie quarterback Cameron Ward has shown flashes of promise, throwing for over 250 yards in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Titans’ offense has been inconsistent, they still have playmakers in Tony Pollard and Treylon Burks who can generate chunk plays. With the Chargers’ defense prone to giving up explosive gains through the air, Ward may find opportunities to keep Tennessee competitive on the scoreboard, even if they ultimately fall short.

The betting market has the total set at 43.5 points, and the matchup dynamics lean toward the OVER. The Chargers’ offense is too potent to be slowed by a depleted Titans defense, and Tennessee’s ability to score in garbage time or on a few big plays should help push the total past the number. Add in the fact that Los Angeles has hit the OVER in four of their last six games, and the conditions are ripe for another high-scoring affair.

In short, this Week 9 clash looks like a game where the Chargers dictate tempo, Herbert lights up the stat sheet, and the Titans do just enough offensively to push the scoreboard higher. The smart play is on this contest going OVER 43.5 points.

Jim's Play: Take: 465. Chargers/Titans OVER 

Denver has found ways to win its past five games by controlling the clock, winning the turnover battle and keeping the points down. Rookie QB Bo Nix has been efficient (4 TDs, 1 INT in last week’s win at Dallas) but Denver’s offense is a run-first attack led by J.K. Dobbins and designed to be methodical and protect the football. Head coach Sean Payton has been outspoken about reducing mistakes and winning the field-position battle, and that has helped keep the Broncos ahead but also kept the pace of games down. The Broncos defense is also top-10 in the league in points allowed, and they generate pressure up front without blitzing, forcing opponents into errors.

Houston has exceeded expectations so far in 2025, and it is all because of the development of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been better every week, including his best game yet in last week’s 26-17 win at San Francisco, when he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. However, the Texans offense has also struggled to consistently finish drives in the red zone and has gone away from the run at times. Houston has the defensive chops to make Denver’s offense work for everything this week, and it’s led by second-year pro Will Anderson Jr. at outside linebacker. The Texans’ defense is near the top of the league in yards allowed and has shown the ability to limit big plays and could again this week against Denver. The over/under opened around 43 points but has been bet down to about 39.5–40.5, and that price looks right considering both teams are susceptible to games that stay UNDER this season. Denver has gone UNDER in four of its last six games, and Houston has gone UNDER in three of its last four. Add in the potential for long drives and turnovers being the difference in this game, and points will likely be at a premium.

Jim's Play: 463. Broncos/Texans UNDER  

The Chicago Bears (4-3) will face the Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) on Sunday, November 2, 2025, at Paycor Stadium in Week 9. The over/under for the game is set at 51.5 points. This number has value going OVER based on the offensive playmaking ability of both teams as well as their recent scoring output.

Chicago comes into this game after a 30-16 loss to Baltimore but the Bears’ offense has been trending in the right direction with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams leading the way. Williams is already over 1,600 yards through the air on the season and has a dynamic young wide receiver in Rome Odunze, who he has quickly developed chemistry with down the field. Swift is a dynamic playmaker who has been good as both a runner and receiver, but he will miss this game on Sunday due to a hip injury.  They will also be without backup RB Roschon Johnson. Rookie RB Kyle Monangai  will take the heavy load at RB here on Sunday.  Chicago is averaging 24 points per game on the season and has scored over 25 points in four of its last five games. The Bears will likely lean heavily on Williams and the passing game early and often in this contest, which means a high-scoring affair is likely.

The Bengals come into this game off a 39-38 loss to the Jets in Week 8. The Bengals were able to be explosive on offense in that game but their defense also struggled as the Jets scored 38 points. Cincinnati signed veteran quarterback Joe Flacco midseason after starting quarterback Joe Burrow went down with an injury and it looks like it was a move of pure genius. Flacco has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last two games and he has one of the best receivers in the game in Ja’Marr Chase at his disposal. Cincinnati’s passing game is almost certain to score points in this game and the defense will likely struggle to keep Chicago from doing the same. The Bengals are giving up almost 30 points per game over their last three games, and it seems reasonable to expect a similar showing in this game.

The total is set at 51.5 points. Cincinnati’s last two games have totaled over 70 points and Chicago has averaged nearly 380 yards of offense over its last three games. The match-ups between both offenses are tantalizing, with two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly down the field, and both teams having playmakers that can take over games at any moment. The two defenses have struggled to make stops consistently as well, so expect another shootout in this one that results in a win for the OVER.

Jim's Play: 451. Bears/Bengals OVER 

The Orlando Magic (1-4) will be looking to avoid a second straight winless trip in the early part of the season, but after what they have done in recent games, it should be noted that they will be good for at least their half of an over bet. In their last game, Orlando lost to the Philadelphia 76ers 136-124. The Magic shot the ball extremely well in this game, making 54.9% of their field goals while also recording 27 assists. Even though the Magic had open looks from beyond the arc, they showed an ability to get buckets anywhere on the court. During this game, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were excellent, but also do not be surprised to see Orlando make it to the charity stripe frequently. With how much they score in transition, how aggressive they are on offense, and how weak their defense is, 241.5 total points in this game is completely reasonable.

The Charlotte Hornets (2-2) have been a wild-card so far this season. They have won one game, but only by 5 points. In the two games they have won, they have scored over 120 points, so we know the Hornets are an offensive-minded team, at the very least. LaMelo Ball is dangerous in the pick and roll, he can create his own shot whenever he wants to, and when paired with Terry Rozier on the wing, the Hornets backcourt has the ability to be lights out on offense. Additionally, Charlotte has been playing an extremely fast pace, already ranking in the top third of the league in terms of possessions per game in the early going. The Hornets have won their last two at home, so they should feel good about themselves, especially with Orlando losing each of their first four away from Orlando.

As can be seen from their last three games, this game has a legitimate chance to go over 241.5 points. Charlotte and Orlando are averaging at least 116.5 points in each of their last three games, and it would not be surprising to see either defense let up at all. If each of these teams shoot the ball well on Thursday, the over should easily hit, so this bet makes a lot of sense.

Jim's Play: 501. Magic/Hornets OVER 

Blue Jays and Dodgers Offenses Both Riding High While Pitching Depth Is Worn Thin After 18-Inning Game 3. Dodgers-Blue Jays Game 4 of the 2025 World Series is set to top the total of 8.5 on Tuesday night in Los Angeles as both offenses hit cruise control while the depth of both pitching staffs are stretched to the limit after the 18-inning Game 3.   The teams battled through one of the longest, most exciting games in World Series history on Monday, with L.A. edging Toronto in the extra innings to take a 2-1 series lead, 6-5 behind Freddie Freeman's home run to dead center field for the walk off.   Dodgers’ offense is likely to be a problem for Toronto all series, as Los Angeles is led by MVP Mookie Betts and has Freeman, Ohtani and catcher Will Smith who can all punish a mistake.

Toronto has a loaded core of its own that can match LA punch for punch, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk all able to put paws on a fastball. Kirk hit a three-run homerun in Game 3 and Toronto batted around to rack up 15 total hits.

Shane Bieber will start for Toronto with Ohtani expected on the mound for L.A. Toronto manager Pedro Grifol said after the game that he thinks Bieber has the “stuff” to be successful and Ohtani has dominated all season but he is not a starting pitcher by trade.  Both teams used all of their relief pitchers in game 3 with starters warming up if the game where to continue.    Toronto starter Shane Bieber has been in rough waters against the best lineups in the majors and Ohtani will be throwing on limited rest and with a Dodgers bullpen that threw 200-plus pitches less than 24 hours prior to Game 4.  Ohtani was on base a record 9 times in game three including a record-setting FOUR extra base hits. At one point he cramped up while running the bases.  Cramps have been an issue for Ohtani on the mound before and with very little rest I have to wonder how long he can go tonight.  

Toronto and Los Angeles are both playing with house money but have also have gone to war in their previous three games. Los Angeles has won two of three but both teams have exceeded the run total in two of the first three games combined.

Toronto can win this game against the tough Dodgers if their bats are hot. Toronto’s bats are capable of cooking at any time and that will test a Dodgers bullpen that was on the mound for nearly 50 innings over three days.

I'm counting on Ohtani not making it long and turning the ball over to a pen that was used to the max last night.  Price just too high on the Dodgers here on game four with the Jays being a nice live dog in this.  

As for the total, again with pens depleted and no rest, this could be another slug fest.  I'll be on the OVER once again as I was last night. 

Jim's Play: 927. Blue Jays / Dodgers OVER 8.5 (5 PT / 8 ET)

Tuesday's matchup between the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets looks to be a high-scoring affair, as the Southeast Division foes come together for a rare matchup of 2-1 teams with the total sitting at 241.5.  

Charlotte opens in South Beach in the midst of an offensive explosion, averaging 139 points on the back of LaMelo Ball’s 38-13-13 triple-double and a second-half resurgence driven by accountability and culture. Meanwhile, the Heat have relied on Bam Adebayo to produce consistently with a balanced supporting cast. Miami will be without Tyler Herro (ankle surgery) and could be without rookie Kasparas Jakucionis (groin). Still, both teams have been shooting well in the early goings with multiple Hornets and Heat starters hitting the 20-point mark and depth on both benches. Miami is favored by 6.5 points as Charlotte will look to use its transition game and shot-making ability to attack a Heat perimeter defense that was middle of the pack in 2022-23, ranking top-five in pace through opening week and leading the league in possessions per game. 

Charlotte has gotten a recent boost of energy from its players and appears to have the correct formula to win games, while Miami has the home-court advantage, thus making this a competitive affair in which we can anticipate a shootout. Charlotte’s pressure D should be able to generate turnovers against a Heat team that turned the ball over at a league-average rate (12.6 last season) to create transition opportunities. The Hornets shot over in seven of eight games as the total was set at 231 or higher, so we can take the play here with a line set at 241.5, as a shooting performance from Ball could be met by one from Butler, Adebayo and Duncan Robinson.

I'll be on the OVER as this one looks to be end to end action on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 543. Hornets/Heat OVER (Total of the Month)

In their Week 8 Monday Night Football showdown, the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs both point towards a high scoring affair, which makes this prime time matchup one to watch at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have been a well-oiled machine, going into the game at 4-3 and fresh off of a 31-0 annihilation of the Raiders last week. Patrick Mahomes threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while Kansas City’s dynamic duo of wideouts, with Rashee Rice returning from suspension and Travis Kelce continuing to be as impossible to cover as ever, were on top of their game. Meanwhile, Washington is entering with a not-so-favorable record of 3-4 and the possibility of losing Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels. However, back up QB Marcus Mariota showcased big play ability in relief, including a 34-yard run of his own last week against the Dallas Cowboys. The 44-22 defeat was one that showed the potential of Commanders’ ability to score points as well as move the ball behind playmakers such as Robbie Chosen and the rest of their dynamic backfield. While the Chiefs’ defense has stepped up, Washington is a very aggressive scheme that will look to expose gaps in coverage through Mariota’s mobility when it matters least. Kansas City’s offense is an early touchdown bonanza waiting to happen, and if Washington can keep pace late as they have shown potential to, this game should cruise past the total in a prime-time shootout.

Jim's Play : Take: 283. Commanders/Chiefs OVER

Game 3 of the 2025 World Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers shifts to Dodger Stadium with the series knotted at one game apiece, and all signs point to a high-scoring affair. The Blue Jays’ offense has been relentless this postseason, averaging over six runs per game, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette anchoring a lineup that punishes mistakes. Toronto’s Game 1 outburst (9 runs in the 7th inning) showcased their ability to string together big innings, and their aggressive approach at the plate could test a Dodgers pitching staff that has shown occasional vulnerability.

Los Angeles counters with a lineup just as dangerous, led by Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani, who has been scorching hot in October. The Dodgers’ offense has been particularly potent at home, where they’ve averaged nearly 5.5 runs per game in the postseason. With both teams likely turning to mid-rotation arms or bullpen-heavy strategies in Game 3, the potential for early scoring and taxed relievers looms large. The total is set at 8 runs, and with two elite offenses, warm West Coast weather, and a hitter-friendly park, the over looks like a strong play. Expect fireworks in a pivotal game that could easily push into double-digit runs.

These are two of the best offenses in baseball, especially after the sixth inning where the Brewers are tops in baseball and the Dodgers are second.  The biggest question for the Dodgers is their bullpen and if Glasnow exits before the 6th this could be a long night for LA.  Still, I'm taking the OVER with these two heavy hitting teams. 

Jim's Play : 925. Blue Jays/Dodgers OVER 

Take: 561. Hornets/76ers OVER 237 

The Philadelphia 76ers host the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday, October 25th, 2025, in what should be a fast-paced offensive matchup that points toward the game going over the total. Philadelphia’s offense continues to hum behind Joel Embiid’s dominant inside presence and Tyrese Maxey’s improved perimeter shooting, as the Sixers have averaged over 118 points per game through the first week of the season. Charlotte, meanwhile, leans heavily on LaMelo Ball’s playmaking and rookie Brandon Miller’s scoring touch on the wing, giving the Hornets a young and aggressive look in transition. The Hornets’ defense remains a liability, particularly against elite big men, and that could spell trouble trying to contain Embiid in the paint. Still, Charlotte’s pace and three-point shooting keep them within striking distance throughout. Expect both teams to trade baskets in an up-tempo game that pushes well past the total, with Philadelphia pulling away late in what should be a high scoring game. 

Jim's Play: Hornets/76ers OVER

Missouri arrives with a potent offense, averaging roughly 41.7 points per game and allowing about 19.5 points on defense. They’re piling up yards: around 242 passing and 245 rushing per game. Among their key players: QB Beau Pribula leads the team with about 1,617 passing yards so far. RB Ahmad Hardy has emerged as a major threat, rushing for roughly 840 yards. Missouri’s defense is stout too — opponents average just over 4.1 yards per play.

On the Vanderbilt side, they’ve been quietly effective. They average about 41.4 points per game and give up about 20.0. QB Diego Pavia has thrown for approximately 1,569 yards this season. Vanderbilt’s offense is balanced and efficient, and their defense has tightened up, especially in home games.

Given these stats and match-up dynamics, here’s why Vanderbilt covering and the total going under makes sense: Missouri’s high-powered offense has been impressive, but Vanderbilt at home is disciplined and able to slow things down. Vanderbilt’s improved defensive consistency suggests they’ll force Missouri into a more deliberate pace. Meanwhile, the Commodores’ offense, led by Pavia, can keep enough pressure on Missouri without turning it into a shoot-out. I expect both defenses to win pivotal moments - the game stays comfortable but not wild, so the total stays under. 

Jim's Play: 183. Missouri/Vandy UNDER 

Minnesota comes in with a 3-3 record, currently in 4th in the NFC North. Offensively they’ve had some movement: 1,525 total yards or an average of a little over 305 yards per game. They are 534 yards on the ground (4.5 yards per carry) and 1,121 through the air (224 or so per game, give or take). Defensively they’ve held their own at times: among the better yards-against rates in the league early on. But they’ve also had trouble with turnovers and the red-zone: finding difficulty converting trips to the end zone while also being prone to giving up big plays at inopportune times. They’re a talented team, but with lapses of concentration and mistakes. They need to clean it up. 

The Chargers are currently 4-3, in 2nd in the AFC West. Offensively they’ve had more productivity: 2,609 total yards through seven games - averaging a little over 372 yards per game. They have 778 yards on the ground (averaging 111 yards per game) and 1,957 through the air (roughly 280 per game). On third-down situations the Chargers convert on about 46% of their attempts and have a slight negative turnover margin (-3). Defensively and structurally, they’re showing some positive changes under new coaching. But they still give up plays and lack overall consistency.

The Vikings are better on the ground (534 yards so far), and that Minnesota rushing attack will test the Chargers’ front line. If the Vikings can get a push, set up play-action, control time of possession, they’ll keep LA’s defense on its heels.  The Chargers are a passing-oriented team and have been able to move the ball through the air effectively. Minnesota’s secondary and pass rush will need to show up to disrupt that. The Chargers have the home field advantage, which should help - they have the room to be loose. 

The Chargers right now are a more stable team: record is better, less glaring issues. The Vikings have the talent and potential to put up a fight, but they also have real issues, inconsistency, turning it over. If the Vikings show up, play a disciplined game and minimize their mistakes they have a chance.  I expect both teams to be able to move the ball here on Thursday and put up plenty of points in this one.  I don't like either side that much but I do like the game to go OVER the total. 

Jim's Play: Take: 109. Vikings/Chargers OVER 

The Miami Heat and Orlando Magic meet Wednesday, October 22, 2025, in a Sunshine State showdown to open the new NBA season. Orlando comes in as the home favorite and is expected to push the pace behind a young, energetic lineup, while Miami looks to rebound from a disappointing 37-45 campaign. Both teams feature offensive upgrades and enough scoring depth to make this one entertaining from start to finish.

The Magic Heat, will rely on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to set the tone early, attacking Miami’s defense in transition and from the perimeter. The Heat, known for their grit, have added shooting help and still have Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro capable of creating their own looks. Miami’s offense should be sharper than last season’s inconsistent form, especially if they can get easy buckets in transition and capitalize on second-chance opportunities.

Early-season NBA games often feature faster tempos and looser defensive rotations, and this matchup fits that trend perfectly. With both teams eager to start hot and plenty of offensive talent on the floor, expect a high-scoring contest.

Jim's Play: 509. Heat/Magic OVER 

It’s for all the marbles - Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays are knotted up 3-3 and after six games there have been comebacks, blowouts, big innings, big games from players on both teams and anything else you can think of. In Game 7, there will be emotion, there will be aggression and there will be lots of runs scored to decide who advances to the World Series, because that’s the way this series has gone.

Toronto will send Shane Bieber to the hill. Bieber was solid in his last start against Seattle, throwing six strong innings. But he was aided in that game by a 13-4 final score, a game in which both teams put together a big inning - which is an important note, as both of these clubs have proven to be capable of stringing together a big inning or two. George Kirby will get the ball for Seattle. Kirby has struggled the last time these teams met, giving up eight earned runs over four innings. He’s also been prone to walks in his last two starts. Neither Bieber nor Kirby have an “edge” over their opponent and both will need to be efficient to help their side. Should one have a rough start, the other team will be all too happy to capitalize.

Toronto’s offense is built on power. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Bo Bichette have the ability to end a game with one swing. Seattle has its own threats. It clubbed a grand slam in Game 5 and has continued to get big hits from Julio Rodríguez and Eugenio Suárez. Both lineups are deep and both have proven they’ll attack the fastball and take advantage of bullpen missteps.

The bullpens have been leaned on a lot already in this series. In Game 7, expect both teams’ starters to be on shorter leashes. Managers will not be shy about switching things up and that often means less rhythm and more chances to score runs. Add to that some nerves (it’s elimination baseball after all) and you could see a game full of defensive lapses, missed spots and aggressive baserunning - all over ways to score runs.

Factoring in the recent scoring trends, the unproven nature of both starting pitchers, and the proven firepower of both offenses, this game favors the over.

Jim's Play: 906. Mariners/Blue Jays OVER 

Week 7 comes to a close with one of the best NFC battles of the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions on Monday night. Tampa Bay is at 5-1 and sitting atop the conference, while the Lions are 4-2 and hungry after a bad loss to Kansas City on the road. There are also some similarities: Both have dynamic offenses, playmakers at every level and a playoff atmosphere that should make for a highly entertaining prime time contest.

Baker Mayfield continues to have efficient play in key moments and strong chemistry with a retooled receiving group. Mike Evans is expected back from a hamstring injury and rookie Emeka Egbuka is a game-time decision, while Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin have been ruled out. Even with those players missing, Tampa’s offense has weapons that can beat a Lions defense that has serious problems in the secondary through the air.

Detroit has ridden a physical run game, play-action with quarterback Jared Goff and opportunistic defense to get to 4-2. The Lions have the fourth-best run DVOA and have proven to be one of the league’s best teams at run defenses this year, but the Buccaneers run defense is more susceptible and will need to answer the bell against D’Andre Swift and the run game. Safety Brian Branch will be suspended and out for the Lions, which does not bode well for a secondary that already was prone to big plays.

Both of these teams will be able to score. The number in this game is hovering around 52.5 points and the matchup could play over that. Tampa will likely be forced into a pass-heavy script with their injuries, and the Lions will look to control tempo but take what they need to through the air, too, if the Buccaneers get aggressive. Both offenses have been able to do this with their quarterbacks in good form and their defenses showing some cracks, most notably inside the red zone. This game has shootout potential if both sides play up to form.

Jim's Play: 475. Bucs/Lions OVER

The American League Championship Series returns to Toronto for a Game 6. The Seattle Mariners lead the series 3–2 and are one win away from reaching the World Series for the first time in franchise history, while the Blue Jays look to extend the series with a home win and force a Game 7. Loaded with two of the best lineups in baseball, iffy starting pitching, and postseason stakes at their highest, there are a lot of reasons this game could finish over the total tonight.

putting up crooked numbers are a reality both teams have established to some degree already this series. Seattle blasted out five runs in the eighth inning of Game 5 to secure a 6–2 victory, while Toronto showed their power with a 13-4 shellacking of the Mariners early in the series powered by five home runs. The ball has been flying around in the playoffs already and it should continue to do so here given Rogers Centre’s friendly dimensions and with a closed roof aiding run scoring.

Seattle will turn to Logan Gilbert on the mound. The right-hander was on the mound for Seattle’s loss in Game 2, surrendering three earned runs over just three innings. Across his two postseason starts this season, Gilbert has not recorded an out past the fourth inning, and his command of his fastball has been spotty at best. Toronto will counter with rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage on the mound. Yesavage had a 3.21 ERA in his limited regular-season appearances and has the kind of stuff that comes with an elite pedigree, but he has very little playoff experience. He has significant upside here, but it is a pressure situation and with the bullpens on both sides already taxed, it comes with some risk if either starter is unable to go deep into the game.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are led by George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette, three hitters with postseason pedigree who have shown a propensity to perform in big moments. The Mariners have Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez, who clubbed a grand slam to drive in all of Seattle’s runs in Game 5. The lineups on both sides have power and patience, and both are capable of drawing walks or swinging a game with a single swing.

With aggressive bats, more likely to employ the pen early, and every pitch being put under a microscope, the probability of seeing a high-scoring game increases. Even if both starters perform serviceably, we could see both bullpens back into the game late – something we have already seen multiple times this series.

Jim's Play: Over the Total 

The Denver Broncos (4-2) come into Week 7 with a high-powered defense that is one of the best in the NFL, and an improving offense. The New York Giants (2-4) have a good defense of their own but are still struggling to find identity and rhythm on offense, especially on the road, where they are 0-3. They are visiting Mile High in this Sunday matchup against the Broncos, a team looking to prove it has the ability to compete with any team on any given Sunday. The two teams have a sharp contrast in strengths - Denver has a top-five defense, and the Giants have a growing offense - and their game should be low-scoring with lots of stops and starts.

The Broncos have the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up only 15.8 points per game. The defense has actually been even better over their three-game win streak, allowing only 10.3 points and 181 total yards per game in their last three wins. The Denver offense has been competent but unspectacular, led by QB Bo Nix, who has 1,277 passing yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on around 64.6% passing in six games played. Nix has been flanked by J.K. Dobbins and Laviska Shenault Jr. in the backfield. Dobbins has 442 yards on 90 carries (4.9 Y/A, 4 TD) and Shenault 232 yards on 34 catches (6.8 Y/C).

The Giants are one of the few teams with a rookie running back in Cam Skattebo who has had better production than most vets in the league. Skattebo has recorded five total touchdowns (5), tied for the most among all rookies this season. On the other hand, New York has a record of 2-4, and their offense in particular has been mostly middling to put it lightly. 

Field position and execution in the trenches should dictate which team has more success in the game. The Broncos’ pass rush will be able to create chaos against the Giants’ offensive line, and New York will likely have trouble consistently sustaining drives without big plays. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense hasn’t looked great but has also been capable of moving the ball. The Broncos have done a good job of methodically wearing defenses down over long drives and run games. A final score of under 40.5 points is looking very likely with the game script for this one. This is a game that should come down to winning the line of scrimmage and field position, and both defenses are superior to their opposing offenses. Expect long, plodding drives on both sides and a physical, defense-oriented game.

Jim's Play : 467. Giants/Broncos UNDER 

In a key NFC showdown, the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles head to Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Eagles come in with confidence after a strong first half of the season, riding a dominant run game and efficient defense. Minnesota, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, showing flashes of promise but lacking the execution needed to hang with elite opponents.

 It’s a must-win for Minnesota if they want to stay afloat, while the Eagles have been firing on all cylinders in the first half of the season and will feel good about their chances to win it in the North. However, the Vikings have played lights out at home this year, and an upset could be in the cards if they can be physical, take care of the football, and hold an Eagles offense that will likely be conservative on the road.

The outcome of the game will be decided in the trenches. The Eagles O-line has remained one of the best in football and will look to run the ball right at the Vikings to control time of possession. Philadelphia has enough at the skill positions to take what’s given to them, and with Jared Goff out they’re also a solid bet to be well under the projected pass attempts. The Vikings have been leaky in pass protection, and they’ll be tested by a Philadelphia front four that can create pressure without bringing extra defenders. Minnesota’s offense can easily be stalled by that pressure, and if the Vikings fall behind early it could get ugly. They will need to keep the Eagles honest with quick throws, and their defense will have to create opportunities to change the possession in their favor.

 The Eagles will likely grind out clock, go conservative on offense, and be efficient. Minnesota will likely need to be as well to give themselves a chance, though they are capable of a cover on the back end. Both teams can be stopped in the red zone, and long possessions might end in field goals.

Jim's Play: 461. Eagles/Vikes UNDER 

Two struggling teams will clash in Cleveland on Sunday as the 1-5 Miami Dolphins visit the 1-5 Cleveland Browns. Both franchises are desperate to stop the bleeding and salvage their seasons, but this game is shaping up to be a gritty, low-scoring affair, especially with extreme weather conditions in the forecast.

The Dolphins come in with major concerns on both sides of the ball. Their offense has sputtered in recent weeks, failing to consistently protect the quarterback or establish a reliable ground game. More troubling, though, is their defense- particularly against the run. Miami currently ranks last in the NFL, allowing nearly 170 rushing yards per game. That could spell trouble against a Browns team that, despite offensive struggles, excels at running the football and has a punishing offensive line.

Cleveland hasn’t looked much better on offense. Their quarterback play has been inconsistent, and explosive plays have been rare. But their defense - especially their run-stopping front - is a bright spot, giving up fewer than 80 rushing yards per game. Defensive end Myles Garrett and the Browns’ front seven should be able to generate pressure and contain Miami’s offense, particularly if the Dolphins are forced into obvious passing situations.

Weather will play a significant role. The forecast calls for heavy rain, 94% precipitation, and wind gusts between 40-60 mph. That will likely eliminate the deep passing game and make field goals treacherous. Expect a run-heavy game plan from both teams, with coaches focused on field position, ball security, and clock control.

These conditions heavily favor Cleveland. Their physical running game and superior defense are built for bad weather. Meanwhile, Miami’s struggles to stop the run and protect the ball become even more problematic in a muddy, windy battle. The Dolphins’ best shot may come from forcing turnovers or getting a special teams boost.

Given all of these factors, expect a sluggish, low-scoring affair. The total is likely to go under, as both teams will struggle to move the ball through the air or finish drives. Vegas has Cleveland favored, and for good reason - they’re better built for ugly football.

Jim's Play: 456. Dolphins/Browns UNDER 

Sunday’s international game lands in London as the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars hop over the pond for this week 7 clash. Both squads have competent offenses, but travel, the time-zone shift, and the match-ups should favor a lower-scoring affair. The Jaguars have been to London numerous times in the last several seasons, but the Rams pack a veteran presence in Matthew Stafford who is never as explosive as the home team on the road. Both defenses are trending in the right direction, and fields are usually more sluggish overseas, so let’s take the Under.

Stafford is still effectively piloting the Rams’ offense, having eclipsed 1,500 passing yards and recorded 10 touchdowns, but the team has committed to a balanced attack, using more of running back Kyren Williams to dictate the pace. Davante Adams has recorded over 500 receiving yards, and Puka Nacua has emerged as a reliable second option, but Los Angeles could look to be more ball-control focused and avoid big plays against a Jacksonville secondary that can match up well with most opponents. Note: Nacua is expected to miss Sunday's game with a leg injury. 

Jacksonville will test the Rams’ defense with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr., but the Jaguars have occasionally been wasteful at the end of drives, settling for field goals over touchdowns. Lawrence has close to 1,600 passing yards through eight games, and Etienne is always a play-making threat in space, but the Rams defensive front is well equipped to stuff inside runs. The Jaguars’ defense, anchored by linebacker Foye Oluokun and edge rusher Josh Allen, has also improved over recent weeks, regularly getting opponents into third-and-long and keeping games close.

The offense can take time to find a rhythm, especially after a long trip, but both units can move the ball. Look for longer, more conservative possessions and less emphasis on field position.

Jim's Play: 451. Rams/Jags UNDER

Texas Tech is 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Big 12 play. Arizona State comes in at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference games. On Texas Tech’s side, their quarterback Behren Morton has completed 104 of 152 passes for 1,501 yards, with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Their rushing leader, C. Dickey, has carried the ball 92 times for 593 yards and 8 touchdowns. On the receiving end, C. Douglas has 24 catches for 395 yards and 1 touchdown so far.

For Arizona State, Sam Leavitt has thrown 99 of 157 for 1,039 yards, with 8 touchdowns and 3 picks. Running back Raleek Brown has 91 carries for 573 yards (though modest touchdown production so far). At wideout, Jordyn Tyson has 47 receptions for 523 yards and has been one of Leavitt’s primary targets.

Given those numbers, the game looks to be a shootout. Tech’s offense is humming, and Arizona State has at least one explosive threat in Tyson to keep defenses honest. If ASU can avoid stalling drives and Texas Tech continues to execute, there’s a reasonable path for the total to go over.

Jim's Play: 407. Texas Tech/Arizona State OVER

This rivalry always brings energy. TCU leads the all-time series 59–54–7. For this season, both Baylor and TCU come in at 4-2. The betting market has TCU as a 3-point favorite, and the over/under is in the 65.5 range (66.5 in some books).

What supports the “over” case is that both offenses have shown they can put up points, and both defenses have vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Baylor is averaging 36.3 points per game offensively, though their defense gives up 29.7 points per game. TCU’s offense is averaging about 35.3 PPG, while their defense concedes around 24.7 PPG. That suggests both sides are capable of putting up moderate output, making a high-scoring game plausible.

Baylor’s quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been one of their consistent weapons. In their recent win vs. Kansas State, he threw for 345 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Baylor’s passing offense is a key part of their identity and their ability to stretch defenses. On the ground, Bryson Washington has chipped in, but Baylor’s strength leans toward getting chunk plays through the air. Also, Baylor’s defense tends to struggle in stopping big plays in the pass game — that opens the door for TCU to hit quick strikes.

On TCU’s side, quarterback Josh Hoover is capable of pushing tempo and making big throws. Baylor’s defensive metrics in pass defense are among the weaker spots, making them susceptible to explosive gains. Also, Baylor ranks low in run-defense metrics (for example, in defensive EPA per rush), so if TCU leans on a balanced attack, they could get enough yardage on the ground to force Baylor’s defense to stay honest.

Another angle: Baylor has a strong track record in “overs” recently. The total has gone over in 12 of Baylor’s last 16 games. And in Big 12 play, Baylor’s games often produce more points than expected. 

Given the matchup, I see Baylor and TCU trading blows. Each team has the ability to drive into the red zone and find ways to score, especially if there are defensive breakdowns or big plays allowed. 

Jim's Play: 385. Baylor/TCU OVER 

Even though the the Mariners come into this game 3 having a 2-1 series lead, they may feel urgency here tonight.  They lost Game 3 in a rout, giving up five home runs, and they’ll be motivated to respond at home. Toronto’s offense showed it’s dangerous in big bursts, so the Mariners can’t afford to be passive. Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Naylor remain threats - they’ll need to get “on” early and force the Jays’ pitchers to work deep into their counts.

On the mound, Seattle is expected to send out Luis Castillo, a reliable arm in big spots. Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, who brings experience and a track record of stepping up in October. But if Castillo allows a couple of base runners or Scherzer has command issues, we could see a quick trip to the bullpen for both sides. And in playoff games, that often loosens things up - more matchups, more chances for runs.

Defensively and bullpen-wise, neither side is flawless. Seattle’s relievers have shown they can be beat, especially under pressure. The Jays’ bullpen isn’t infallible either. If one inning opens up, this game has the potential to snowball into a high-scoring affair. Given the stakes - both teams needing to swing - I expect both clubs will push hard offensively and not sit back.

I'll take the Mariners and the OVER tonight. 

Jim's Play: 955. Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 

Thursday night features a Week 6 NFL showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals that has all the makings of an overperforming divisional game. 

The offenses of these two clubs have been trending in the right direction heading into the game. Aaron Rodgers has hit a groove for the Steelers by utilizing timing routes with shallow reads to extend plays. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth have established themselves as dynamic red-zone threats and Pittsburgh’s offensive line has managed to give Rodgers enough time to do his thing. The Bengals’ offense, on the other hand, has begun to come around for Joe Flacco. He and Ja’Marr Chase are developing rapport in the passing game and Cincinnati has also opened up the playbook to take more deep shots in the passing game after they were a non-factor to start the year.

The defenses of these two squads have not looked great. Pittsburgh’s secondary has not been great at defending the big play and Cincinnati has one of the worst red-zone stop rates in the league. A big-play passing game from either of these offenses combined with a lack of top-tier playmaking in the secondary from the other means there should be multiple scoring drives from each side. Early points on both sides’ opening possessions should set the tone for the over to hit as well.

The total is in the mid-40s and both of these teams have the offense and big-play ability to drive the score over that. Neither defense looks like it will be the kind to force a low-scoring affair and Rodgers and Flacco are both capable of stretching defenses vertically. This game is far more likely to go back-and-forth rather than being a slugfest. 

Seattle, coming off a 2–0 series lead, carries significant offensive momentum into Game 3. In Game 2, they pummeled the Jays for 10 runs, highlighted by another clutch homer from Jorge Polanco, and Josh Naylor and Julio Rodríguez flexing some power. The M’s bats are feeling it right now, and particularly in high-leverage situations. Seattle’s lineup is also just a volume one: They’re gonna barrel the ball, and put stress on Toronto’s arms to stay solid.

Toronto is capable of helping facilitate a shootout as well. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been among their most consistent bats in the postseason, and the Jays’ offense as a whole is one of the stronger ones in the American League. Not only do they slug, they have the patience to manufacture rallies when necessary, particularly if they find a pitcher struggling with his command.

The pitching matchup also slants this game towards the Over on total runs. Toronto will start Shane Bieber, who was strong in the regular season, but in the playoffs has had some consistency issues. Seattle will counter with George Kirby, who has been solid as a starter this year, but he’s no stopper. If either of these starters coughs up a couple early runs or gets taken out early, that will put stress on the bullpen. That’s often where games unlock. 

You also need to account for the fact that, in a playoff setting, teams are going to swing aggressively early to set a tone. Defensive miscues or bullpen mismatch arms tend to also come into play when under duress. Both of these offenses can strike, and both of these staffs have some question marks, so I’d expect this one to be more open than tight.

Jim's Play: 953. Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 

Buffalo arrives on a strong 4-1 record, but that came to an abrupt end last week as the Bills were stunned at home by the New England Patriots. The Bills’ defense is without a couple of key players right now, safety Damar Hamlin and defensive tackle T.J. Sanders are on IR and linebacker Matt Milano is also out. That hurts them in depth both in the secondary and up front, especially when it comes to trying to slow down dual threats.  Buffalo ranks 9th in defense, 2nd in rush but 29th in pass. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen is a dangerous player both with his arm and his legs; he will try to push the Falcons’ discipline.

But Atlanta does have a few things going for it. First, the Falcons’ pass defense has quietly been one of the better units in the league this season.  The Falcons have the top ranked defense in the NFL, 16th in rush and 1st in pass (135 yards per game). They may have more trouble with Buffalo’s tight ends (Dalton Kincaid, in particular), but if they force contested throws or push the Bills off schedule, that could limit the scoring. On offense, rookie Bijan Robinson gives Atlanta a versatile runner who can push what could be a somewhat depleted Buffalo run defense.  And with the Bills already ranked 29th in rush defense it could be a big day for Robinson. The Falcons also get an extra week of preparation thanks to their bye, which should help their game plan and recovery. 

The line is around Bills -4.5 in many places. Not a ton of breathing room there. If Atlanta can establish a balanced attack - lean on Robinson, make enough plays through the air, and force some Buffalo turnovers - they don’t need to win this outright to cover. If Josh Allen is pressured or forced into mistakes, Buffalo could also be capped in how much they can cover for.

All of that said, I like the Falcons to keep this one within a field goal, potentially even flip the script late with a shot at the straight-up win against a poor Bills rush defense. 

Jim's Play: 276. OVER

Cincinnati heads into Lambeau Field reeling. They’re 2–3, riding a three-game losing streak, and just this week traded for Joe Flacco and made him their starting quarterback. The move signals desperation,  their offense has lacked rhythm, and they’ve turned the ball over at key moments. The Bengals’ defense hasn’t been much help either, giving up a lot of yards and points in recent weeks.

Green Bay, by contrast, enters 2-1-1 and is coming off a bye. Jordan Love has shown flashes of growth, and the Packers’ offense has a nice balance,  they can move the ball through the air and on the ground,  which puts pressure on Cincinnati to match pace. Even missing Christian Watson hurts their receiving corps, but they still have enough weapons to stress defenses.

Given how weak Cincinnati’s defense has looked and how much the new Flacco-led offense may lean on passing (trying to play catch-up), I expect this game to open up. Green Bay will likely score efficiently, and Cincinnati should push back enough to force Green Bay to stay aggressive.  If both teams hit on explosive plays, this could exceed expectations.

Jim's Play: 271. Bengals/Packers OVER