This Texans–Patriots Divisional game has plenty of built-in Under value baked in simply due to the expected nature of this game. Football doesn’t come colder or more field-position oriented than Gillette Stadium typically does in the playoffs when both teams emphasize defense, the running game, and simply trying to avoid turnovers on early downs. Kickoff is Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 3:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. PT). The total is hovering around the low 40s at most books which already factors in some rain impact to lower the ceiling.

Nonetheless, the game script has a lot of drivers for betting the Under here and weather plays a huge factor. When these winds kick up and temperatures are in the mid-30s with a potential snow squall in the middle-to-late part of the game, efficiency downfield drops and offenses become much more conservative on early downs with rushes, leading to longer drives overall. This changes third downs and red-zone attempts from touchdown-or-bust to a much tougher ask. When that happens, you typically get punts instead of fourth-down attempts, teams “taking the field goal” instead of going for it, and a general inability to make clean explosive plays which means fewer total possessions.

Even matchup-wise, there’s a clear reason to think Houston’s attack won’t be quite as explosive as normal. Heading into this one, early reports and the betting breakdowns have pointed to Houston being without Nico Collins. Collins is Houston’s top pass-catcher and a true field-stretching talent, so losing him is exactly the sort of injury that makes an offense shorten their passing game and attempt longer drives that are more likely to stall. On the Patriots side of things, they’ve been quietly putting their team together in a way that favors defense and situational football as of late: adding defensive depth (CB Alex Austin returning from IR while also elevating a few other players from the practice squad) while mostly remaining healthy at safety impacts the game where the weather is already in play to favor the defense. When you put all of it together you have a clean recipe for an Under: frigid temperatures, snow in the forecast, likely conservative playoff game script, Houston possibly without their top receiver and both defenses feeling confident about “winning the fourth quarter” rather than forcing a shootout.

Jim's Play: 387. Texans/Patriots UNDER 

The late NFC Divisional game on Saturday between the SF 49ers and Seattle Seahawks looks to me to be a low scoring contest. The weather looks to be an issue. on Saturday (8:00 p.m. ET) in Seattle where weather could help skew things down. Weather at kickoff will be in cold (but dry) conditions with temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s°F at night. That’s not the classic “wind and rain” game we see from kickoffs in Seattle, but cold weather can help defenses tackle better and make offenses heavier on runs while not wanting to force passes into tight coverage. Bottom line: familiarity between rivals, defensive playoff-style football, likely run/field-position battle script, and Seattle potentially having to adapt their offense if their quarterback is limited equals a nice path to the Under.

Coaches in the playoffs don’t like to play risky unless they have to, especially when playing a familiar divisional opponent. Blame it on typical playoff-football style or coaches being cautious with the season on the line, but playoff games tend to have more runs, more clock used, and more punts that pin opponents deep in their own territory.

Add in that this is the third game these teams have played this season, and they both struggled to score against one another with defensive, turnover-prone contests decided by eight points or less. Seattle also might not have 100% from their quarterback, as Sam Darnold (questionable, oblique) is up and down on the injury report. The Seahawks could be in a situation where they lean on their run game and short-to-intermediate passing concepts even more. Meanwhile, San Francisco is okay with playing to their running game and Christian McCaffrey’s versatility, and if both teams want to avoid turnovers, you often end up with longer drives that end with either a punt or field goal.

While the weather likely will not be a big factor, I like this game to stay under tht total points here on Saturday evening. 

Jim's Play: 389. 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 

Miami–Ole Miss tonight has a clear path to the over because the scoring profiles are strong on both sides and the environment should be ideal for offense. The total is sitting around 52 to 52.5, and with the game in a controlled stadium setting, you are not dealing with wind or weather that typically drags passing games and kicking down. Ole Miss is built to put points on the board, averaging about 37.6 points per game, and they have a quarterback who protects the ball, which supports sustained drives and fewer empty possessions. Miami can hold up its end too, scoring around 31.6 points per game, and they have enough playmakers to answer when Ole Miss hits. Another over-friendly factor is short fields: if turnovers or special teams create a couple of sudden change possessions, those often turn into touchdowns in clean conditions. Put it together and the most likely script is Ole Miss producing chunk drives, Miami responding often enough to keep pace, and both teams finishing drives at a higher rate than they would in bad weather, which is exactly what you want when the number is in the low 50s.

273. Miami / Ole MISS OVER 52.5 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

Ravens–Steelers is a gold-standard UNDER setup. It’s a Sunday night game at Acrisure Stadium (8: 20 PM ET) with the total around 40.5. The game-time weather in Pittsburgh is brutal-cold (mid-20s and cloudy around kickoff), and even with light wind expected, that kind of cold tends to punish downfield passing, tighten play-calling, and make kicking/ball-handling less automatic. On top of that, this rivalry almost always plays like a fistfight: both coaches are comfortable leaning run game + field position, punting to win the hidden-yards battle, and forcing the other side to drive the long way in low-margin spots, exactly how you end up with more field goals than touchdowns. Personnel-wise, Baltimore is getting Lamar Jackson back (which helps their ceiling), but the Steelers also get T.J. Watt back after the collapsed-lung issue, and his presence alone can turn a couple of Ravens possessions into sacks, long-yardage, and punts. Add in that Baltimore has had illness/injury questions around key pass-catch/coverage pieces (like Rashod Bateman and Marlon Humphrey listed questionable), which can also push this toward conservative, lower-risk offense on one side and “bend-don’t-break” drives on the other. Put it together and the clean UNDER script is straightforward: cold night, two physical defenses, run-heavy pacing, and just a couple of stalled red-zone trips or missed kicks are enough to keep this game under the total. 

Jim's Play: 349. Ravens/Steelers UNDER 

Chargers at Broncos on Sunday, January 4 and I'll be looking at the UNDER in this matchup because the total is more likely being capped by personnel and game flow than the weather. The primary reason the game projects to be a low-scoring affair is that multiple articles mention the Chargers are expected to rest starters such as Justin Herbert. That’s a huge hit for overall offensive production and especially red-zone efficiency. The factor is magnified by the Broncos being mentioned in their Week 18 previews as a top-level defense, the type that can force a reserve QB-led offense into a steady diet of punts and field goals. Game script-wise, Denver is favored and playing for the AFC’s top seed, and usually in that situation teams will proceed with a more controlled game plan that emphasizes the run game, high-percentage throws, and ball security over attacking with tempo, particularly once a lead is in place. If the Broncos are able to establish an early lead, both teams also have reasons to run clock and be conservative late in preserving health and reducing possessions, keeping the UNDER alive. The weather in Denver in the afternoon window is forecast to be clear with mild temps, so wind and snow are not factors in this forecast; the UNDER is mostly tied to the Chargers’ downgraded offense and a Broncos’ approach that can win comfortably without having to go fast.

Jim's play: 363. Chargers/Broncos UNDER 

NFC West implications on the line here on Saturday as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers.  I am looking at the OVER in this matchup for a few reasons, motivation and form align in the direction of points. The total is sitting in the high-40s (roughly 47.5–49.5 range), and while Santa Clara could receive rain earlier in the day, the forecast is showing only scattered showers during the game itself and nothing wet enough to significantly affect the field, with winds that are breezy but not absolutely brutal. In addition, there’s the simple fact that the NFC West and top-seed implications are on the line, and these are often the games with more teams going plus in conviction and fewer “play for field position” punts. From a production perspective, San Francisco’s offense has been on fire, Brock Purdy is on a heater (15 total TDs and a 120.5 passer rating over his last four games) and the 49ers have scored 35+ in each of their last three, while Seattle can also contribute, especially through the air with Sam Darnold and a big-play profile built around Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the matchup favors doing so because the 49ers’ pass rush has reportedly fallen off hard without Nick Bosa, making it easier for Seattle to sustain drives and hit explosives. If the game stays close, turnovers can even lead to an OVER via short fields and both teams entering on six-game win streaks also bodes well for four full quarters of urgency and late points.

Jim's Play: OVER the Total.

The USC–TCU Alamo Bowl has all the ingredients to push past the 55.5 total because both defenses come into the game depleted and vulnerable, especially in the secondary, where opt-outs and transfers have created major holes. That opens the door for explosive plays on both sides, and USC’s offense still operates with tempo and spacing that naturally increases possession count and scoring opportunities. TCU’s offense also found late-season rhythm, particularly in its run game and RPO packages, giving the Horned Frogs a reliable scoring floor against a USC defense that has struggled to stop anything consistently. Both teams have had issues in the red zone, often allowing touchdowns instead of field goals, which is a major Over driver in bowl games. Add in the bowl-game tendency for offensive surges when defenses are thin, plus the big-play potential from USC’s speed and TCU’s balanced attack, and this matchup has multiple pathways to clear 55.5 total with room to spare.

Jim's Play: 247. USC/TCU OVER 

Bears at 49ers on Sunday, December 28, 2025 (5:20 PM PT) sets up well for an OVER because the conditions and the matchup both lean offense. Game-time weather in Santa Clara looks pretty clean, with morning fog lifting and a partly sunny day around 57°F with a 36°F low, so you are not dealing with rain or heavy wind that typically drags scoring down. The total is sitting at 52.5, and that number makes sense when you look at how San Francisco has been playing: the 49ers have been averaging 34.4 points over a five-game win streak and have been so efficient that they have not punted on their last 21 possessions, which is exactly the kind of drive-finishing profile that pushes games over the number.  Chicago can help on the other side too, with Caleb Williams and the Bears offense playing better late in the year, and their defense leading the league in takeaways, which can actually help an OVER by creating short fields or sudden-change scoring chances.  Add in San Francisco’s improved special teams and Eddy Piñeiro’s 26-straight made field goals, and you have fewer empty trips and more points in a game that already projects as a high-scoring, prime-time shootout.

Jim's Play: 429. Bears/49ers OVER 

Steelers at Browns kicks off Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT), and the game-time setup points toward a grind. The Cleveland forecast calls for rain around the day with temps in the 40s to 50s near early afternoon, and the National Weather Service has southerly winds in the neighborhood of 7–13 mph with gusts from24 mph to 44 mpg, which can disrupt downfield timing and make kicking less reliable. In that kind of rain-plus-wind environment, offenses usually shrink the playbook, leaning more run game and quick throws, which keeps the clock moving and reduces explosive plays. The market is also telling you points should be hard to come by, with the total sitting in the mid-30s (roughly 33.5–34.5 range). On the matchup side, Cleveland’s defense has been one of the league’s strongest by yards and efficiency measures, making long, clean scoring drives tougher to string together, especially on a wet field. Add in Cleveland being without TE David Njoku and Pittsburgh missing starting LG Isaac Seumalo, and it’s easy to see both offenses leaning even more conservative, with more punts, fewer clean red-zone chances, and the kind of field-position, AFC North slugfest profile that supports an UNDER.

Jim's Play:  417. Steelers/Browns UNDER   

Cardinals–Bengals sets up well for an OVER because everything about the environment and game script points to points. The market is already expecting scoring with the total around 53.5 and Cincinnati favored by about a touchdown, which creates a natural “Bengals in front / Cardinals chasing” tempo where Arizona has to stay aggressive deep into the second half.  The game-time weather in Cincinnati also looks unusually friendly for late December: it’s forecast to be cloudy and very warm (high near 69°F) with a breezier afternoon and thunderstorms late, so early and mid-game conditions should be more conducive to passing and kicking than a typical cold, windy AFC North spot. On the matchup side, both defenses are dealing with meaningful losses: Arizona is expected to be without Budda Baker, and Cincinnati will be without edge rusher Joseph Ossai, which can show up as more explosive plays and fewer drive-killing pressures. This also isn’t a spot where you’re fighting season-long tendencies, since both teams have been OVER-friendly (9-6 to the over). I expect lots of scoring in this matchup on Sunday in Cincy. 

Jim's Play: 407. Cardinals/Bengals OVER 

Monday night’s matchup between the 49ers and Colts sets up as a strong Under play thanks to two disciplined defenses, two run-heavy offensive identities, and a total in the mid-40s that already signals a lower-scoring expectation. San Francisco enters allowing just over 20 points per game and has tightened up during its four-game winning streak, while Indianapolis has been similarly solid defensively, giving up just 21.6 points per game. Both offenses lean heavily on their star running backs - Christian McCaffrey for the 49ers and Jonathan Taylor for the Colts - which naturally shortens the game, limits possessions, and keeps the clock moving. The Colts’ offense has cooled off significantly, scoring only 16 points last week and struggling to finish drives during their four-game skid, while San Francisco’s defense matches up well against a turnover-prone Indy attack. Even though the game is indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, both teams’ methodical styles and defensive strengths point toward a slower, grind-it-out contest that stays under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 131. 49ers/Colts UNDER 

Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Lions shapes up as a strong Over play thanks to two offenses trending upward and an ideal scoring environment inside Ford Field. Detroit is coming off a 41–34 shootout against the Rams, a 75-point explosion that showcased Jared Goff’s rhythm after throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Pittsburgh also showed offensive efficiency in its 28-15 win over Miami, and with Aaron Rodgers active, the Steelers maintain a high passing ceiling even if their season-long scoring has fluctuated. Playing indoors removes weather from the equation entirely, and Detroit has been one of the league’s most reliable home offenses, consistently producing big numbers in controlled conditions. The market reflects this expectation, opening the total at 52–52.5 - one of the highest on the Week 16 board - signaling that oddsmakers anticipate a fast-paced, high-scoring game. With both teams coming off strong offensive performances and their last two head-to-head meetings combining for 67 points, all signs point toward another game that pushes past the posted total.

Jim's Play: 125. Steelers/Lions OVER 

The Falcons-Cardinals contest on Sunday has been marked as one of the better Over plays on the board as we enter Week 16. The two offenses are coming off high-scoring affairs against very good defenses. Also, State Farm Stadium in the desert usually provides a quick game with good passing numbers, as there are no factors that can affect the game, such as rain or cold weather. Let’s first look at Atlanta, which is coming off a 29-28 victory in a 57-point game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kirk Cousins threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, and the Falcons’ passing game appears to be hitting its stride at a time when their passing attack is needed the most. In Arizona, the Cardinals were involved in a 40-20 game last week against the Houston Texans. Their defense is in bad shape and could be in trouble against Cousins and the Falcons, especially since the Cardinals’ offense has been sneaking up on people. The Cardinals have quietly averaged better than 260 passing yards per game in their last three games. It’s also tough to bet against State Farm Stadium as a host because every game there is guaranteed to have zero variables such as wind, snow or rain. It’s also worth noting that these teams’ defenses have some problems. Arizona has allowed 40+ points in consecutive games for the first time since 2016 and has lost six consecutive games. As for Atlanta, their injury report this week is long and includes defensive players. As for the total itself, it opened at 48.5 points at most books on Monday. It is one of the higher numbers on the Week 16 board, and for good reason: The game flow could dictate a very fast-paced, high-offense finish.

Jim's Play: 121. Falcons/Cardinals OVER

Sunday’s matchup between the Jaguars and Broncos sets up as a strong Over play thanks to two offenses playing their best football of the season and a game environment that naturally promotes scoring. Denver is coming off a 34-point performance behind Bo Nix’s 302 yards and four touchdowns, while Jacksonville exploded for 48 points last week with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 330 yards and five scores. Both teams enter on long winning streaks - the Broncos with 11 straight and the Jaguars with five - and both offenses rank inside the league’s top tiers, with Denver 11th in total offense and Jacksonville 8th in scoring at nearly 27 points per game. Recent results support the Over as well, with both teams’ most recent games soaring past the number and Denver games hitting the Over six times this season. Playing in Denver only enhances scoring potential, as Mile High’s altitude wears down defenses and favors fast-paced offenses like Jacksonville’s, which has topped 25 points in seven straight games.  All signs point to a high-scoring matchup that pushes this game over the posted total.

Jim's Play: 123. Jags/Broncos OVER 

The Bills-Browns Under gets a boost from a tough Cleveland forecast, combined with matchup and game-flow concerns. Sunday's game is expected to take place in 28–30-degree temperatures with a 19-degree wind chill, with 15-mph winds and gusts up to 27 mph, which will generally lead to lower-scoring affairs that feature less deep passing and long field goals. This suggests a more conservative game script, to begin with. The Browns are one of the worst offenses in the NFL in all of the important metrics, as they rank in the bottom third in scoring, total offense, passing and rushing this season. Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders has not been able to produce with much regularity. This will play very well into the hands of a Buffalo defense that has one of the best pass covers in the league. The Bills' high-octane offense is naturally affected by cold, swirling winds that can lead to less downfield efficiency and shorter drives. Factor in the Browns' tendency to run the ball and shorten the game - which will be encouraged by the Bills' leaky run defense - and the ingredients are all there for a long-possession, stalled-drive game with limited total plays. The market has the line in the low 40s, so oddsmakers are pricing in the weather and game flow as well. Sunday's game will be a slugfest that lands Under.

Jim's Play : 107. Bills/Browns UNDER 

I'm looking at the UNDER tonight in the LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks contest.  The weather looks to be a main driver here, because the conditions and the matchup both suggest fewer clean, explosive scoring drives. Seattle is contending with rain around game time and several betting-weather reports are also forecasting strong winds (roughly mid-to-high teens) with gusts that can reach the 30s mph - the kind of environment that negatively impacts timing throws, deep shots, and even longer field-goal attempts.  On top of that, each offense has notable personnel concerns: the Rams’ Davante Adams is listed doubtful 

while Seattle has LT Charles Cross ruled out, both of which can result in more pressure/sacks and push the Seahawks toward quicker, shorter, lower-upside possessions.  And, of course, we’ve already seen a “blueprint” for a lower total in this rivalry - the previous meeting ended 21–19 (40 points), with the Rams’ defense generating takeaways and the game staying close throughout.  This one looks to be a grind-it-out contest tonight  and I'll be on the UNDER.

Jim's Play: 101. Rams/Seahawks UNDER 

The Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers game on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is one to target as a strong play over the total. San Francisco’s offense is one of the most efficient and explosive in the NFL, with the ability to produce chunk plays through both the air and on the ground, forcing their opponents to respond early and often. Christian McCaffrey while physically healthy has been dealing with an illness this last week but should be ready for Sunday. The 49ers passing game has been hitting on all cylinders lately with play-action and motion concepts opening up big play opportunities. Tennessee’s defense has been weak against dynamic offenses and they figure to be tested early and often against San Francisco.

The Titans themselves have been a more aggressive offensive team in recent weeks. Their passing game has come alive with improved play at quarterback and a stronger group of receivers, and they have shown a greater propensity to push the ball downfield on the deep ball when game script allows it. Against a 49ers defense that has been strong but has not been completely impenetrable when it comes to well-timed vertical shots or misdirection concepts, Tennessee has a chance to produce scoring drives of their own. Tennessee’s run game also remains strong enough to help control the tempo of the game and create red?zone opportunities, which is critical for keeping the scoreboard ticking.

What makes this matchup so attractive for the over is how it’s likely to play out. San Francisco’s offense should force their opponents into catch-up mode, with a faster pace and a greater pass volume as a result. Tennessee is built to play in that type of environment, and the improvements they’ve made to their own offense make them far more capable of trading scores in that type of game script than in years past. Add in the 49ers’ proven ability to score quickly and Tennessee’s improved ability to sustain drives, and the recipe is in place for a game that will see multiple momentum swings and consistent scoring throughout.

Jim's Play: 479. Titans/49ers OVER 

The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints NFC South showdown on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is an over bet for multiple reasons, which when added together outweigh the season-long totals that are low for both of these teams. Defensively, both teams have had serious issues against the big play and the matchups on both sides of the ball create offenses with the potential to both string together long, sustained drives as well as get explosive. While the Panthers offense has been very streaky this season, when they have gone up against the type of defense that New Orleans has shown to be susceptible to – specifically with speed and misdirection, they’ve had success. The Panthers’ young quarterback has looked increasingly comfortable going downfield, and with a Saints secondary that has been very susceptible to both breakdowns and big-play liabilities, Carolina has a potential offensive ceiling if the game script requires them to play catchup. Meanwhile, New Orleans has looked at their best when playing at home, where their offense has found its rhythm quickly more often than not. The Saints passing game has been much more aggressive this season and against a Panthers defense that has had trouble generating consistent pressure as well as being susceptible to the big play, New Orleans should be able to both create explosive pass plays as well as through the ground. The Saints’ red-zone efficiency, which is much better at home, also sets them up for a better chance to turn drives into touchdowns, rather than field goals.

Divisional games tend to be low-scoring by nature, but divisional familiarity also has a tendency to open up more scoring opportunities, simply because each team knows the other’s tendencies and the ways to attack the other’s defense, and the defenses here have shown enough inconsistency for both teams that scoring opportunities are likely throughout the game. Carolina has the potential to provide more offense than has been expected so far this season, and the Saints have the elements for a strong offensive showing at home. Considering all of the elements, the ingredients for a higher-scoring game are present.

Jim's Play: 475. Panthers/Saints OVER

The matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears on Sunday in mid-December sets up as a classic AFC/NFC grinder that points strongly to the under. First, the setting matters: December in Cleveland typically means cold temperatures, swirling winds off Lake Erie, and a heavy field that slows down speed on the perimeter.  And right now it's expected to be around 13 degrees with wind chills reaching -20 degrees. This will lean heavily at making this game a more defensive battle. 

From a matchup standpoint, the Browns’ defensive profile leans toward a low total as well. In recent seasons, Cleveland has built one of the better defenses in the league. The Browns have the 2nd ranked over defense and the league's top rushing defense.  Chicago’s offense, even with a dynamic quarterback and improved skill talent, has still tended to be streaky and at its best when the run game is working and the play-action is respected. Against a front as physical as Cleveland’s, sustained 70–80 yard drives are difficult to string together, and red-zone trips often stall into field-goal attempts instead of touchdowns.

On the other side, the Browns’ offense also quietly supports an under. They’ve often leaned on their ground game and short passing attack, playing methodical, possession-based football rather than turning games into shootouts. That style shortens the game, keeps their defense fresh, and limits the total number of drives for both teams. Chicago’s defense, while not elite, has improved in the front seven and is better equipped to play the run and force Cleveland into long fields. Add it all up: winter conditions that suppress scoring, two teams comfortable running the ball and grinding clock, a high-end Browns defense, and a Bears offense that’s more workmanlike than explosive. The most likely script is a physical, field-position battle where punts, field goals, and stalled drives outnumber quick-strike touchdowns, making the under my NFL Total of the Year. 

Jim's Play: Take: 461. Browns/Bears UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

Another of those key matchups on Sunday that will go a ways to clarifying the AFC playoff picture as the Houston Texans travel to Kansas City for the Sunday Night contest.  Houston (7-5) brings league's top ranked defense to town - surrendering roughly 16.5 points per game this season - and they’ve leaned on that unit to win close, low-scoring affairs; when the Texans control field position and force opponents into longer third-down chains, the number of scoring opportunities for both teams drops significantly. 

Kansas City (6-6) still has explosive playmakers, but recent inconsistency and defensive lapses have made the Chiefs more prone to conservative game scripts when facing a top-tier defense at home.  Houston’s defensive identity is built to limit explosive pass plays and win the turnover/field-position battle, which forces the Chiefs to sustain longer drives rather than rely on quick scoring. Kansas City’s offense has the talent to flip a game with a few big plays, but the Chiefs have been less efficient recently and are vulnerable when their offensive line can’t consistently protect or when their short-week prep is disrupted - both scenarios that increase punts and clock-burning drives rather than rapid scoring bursts. 

Conversely, the Texans’ offense is comfortable chewing clock with a balanced run/pass mix; that style shortens the game and reduces total possessions, a classic under driver.  Primetime games also tend to see more conservative play-calling early as coaches avoid turnovers under the lights; if the first quarter is slow, the game script will likely remain grind-oriented and keep the total in check. The combination of Houston’s elite run-stopping defense, Kansas City’s recent offensive inconsistency, and a low-possession game script makes the UNDER the logical play for Sunday Night.

Jim's Play: 143. Texans/Chiefs UNDER 

The NFC West has the team in the penthouse (LA Rams 9-3) taking on the team in the outhouse (Arizona 3-9). Los Angeles enters this tilt as a clear favorite and the market has set the total at roughly 48, a number that already anticipates scoring but still leaves room for an over if both teams trade big plays and quick drives. The Rams remain one of the league’s more explosive offenses when healthy, and even after a puzzling loss they still possess the personnel to generate chunk plays downfield - a primary driver of overs in divisional matchups.  The Rams are 8th in the NFL in total offense (19th in rushing and 4th in passing). 

Arizona’s season record masks a recent uptick in offensive production and the Cardinals have shown they can move the ball through the air when Jacoby Brissett is on rhythm. Now that it looks like Brissett will be behind center the rest of the season, that bodes well for the offense that has big number through the air with Brissett.  Divisional familiarity also matters: these teams know each other’s tendencies, which often leads to quicker scoring sequences rather than long, methodical possessions in this matchup context.

The Rams suffered a surprising loss to Carolina but that result looks more like an outlier than a trend, after QB  Matthew Stafford had three turnovers - something he has limited all season.  When the Rams’ passing game clicks, games move fast; Arizona’s defense has been vulnerable to chunk plays this season, which increases the probability of a high-scoring script if Los Angeles finds early rhythm.

Both teams have playmakers who create explosive opportunities, and State Farm Stadium’s conditions favor passing. If the Rams avoid a slow start and Arizona converts a few early possessions into touchdowns rather than field goals, the game script becomes a back-and-forth shootout - the classic over scenario. Target the OVER at or near 48. 

Jim's Play: 139. Rams/Cards OVER 

Sunday's Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens AFC North matchup will leave one team with a big advantage to the division crown. Both teams enter today's contest tied at 6-6 and tied for first place in the North. Likely only one team in this division will make the postseason, which makes this game even higher impact. 

Pittsburgh’s offense has been uneven and ranks 27th overall in the NFL (28th rushing / 24th passing) while Baltimore’s attack is better at 20th, but lacks in passing with a 28th ranking. Both profiles are more likely to produce long, clock-consuming drives than rapid scoring bursts, which reduces the number of possessions and the raw scoring ceiling. Turnovers, field position, and defensive identity are the decisive variables that push this game under. Pittsburgh’s recent outings have featured offensive miscues and low output - a 26-7 loss to Buffalo highlighted how the Steelers can be bottled up when their passing game stalls - and those kinds of low-scoring performances compress totals quickly. Baltimore, meanwhile, has shown it can play physical, time-of-possession football behind a strong run game and a defense that limits chunk plays; when the Ravens control the line of scrimmage they force opponents into longer third-down chains and fewer scoring opportunities, which is a classic under driver.

Matchup specifics also favor the UNDER.  The last nine meetings between these teams have seen the game go UNDER in eight of those games.  The Steelers’ offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play increase the chance of stalled drives and punts, while the Ravens’ defensive scheme is designed to limit explosive pass plays and force teams to earn points methodically. 

Neither team has shown any explosive play in recent weeks and I dont' see that changing here on Sunday.  Expect a grind out contest likely won with the better rushing game and keep the score under the Total. 

Jim's Play: 127. Steelers / Ravens UNDER

The Big Ten Championship between Indiana (12-0) and Ohio State (12-0) projects as a low-variance, possession-heavy affair that favors the UNDER the posted total near 47.5. Both teams enter unbeaten and have shown a tendency to control tempo rather than run up the score: Ohio State’s recent 27-9 win over Michigan was a methodical performance that emphasized time of possession and limiting opponent explosiveness, while Indiana’s 56-3 rout of Purdue was an outlier driven by turnovers and short fields rather than sustained rapid scoring. When you strip away those anomalous possessions, the season-long profiles for both teams point to efficient offenses that prefer long drives and complementary defense - a classic recipe for fewer total points.

Matchup details reinforce the under lean. Ohio State’s front seven is built to clog the run and force opponents into longer third-down situations, which shortens the game by increasing play clock usage and reducing the number of possessions. Indiana’s offense, while productive, often relies on sustained drives and high-percentage throws rather than quick-strike scoring; when the Hoosiers do score in bunches it has frequently come off turnovers or special-teams swings rather than standard offensive rhythm. Those situational scoring sources are less likely to repeat in a neutral-site title game where both teams emphasize ball security and coaching discipline.

If either defense forces short fields, the scoreboard can spike - but both teams have shown the ability to limit explosive plays and protect the football in big moments, which suppresses scoring variance. Special teams and penalties could create scoring opportunities, yet the coaching staffs here prioritize situational football; expect conservative fourth-down decisions and an emphasis on clock management late in halves. Those tendencies reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring shootout and increase the probability that the game stays under the number.

JIm's Play: 119. Indiana/Ohio State UNDER (Big 10 Championship)

The Monday night matchup between the Giants and Patriots sets up surprisingly well for an OVER, thanks to improving offensive efficiency on both sides and two defenses that have struggled to prevent big plays throughout the season. The Giants enter averaging roughly 21-23 points per game, boosted by a more aggressive passing approach and improved red-zone efficiency, now converting at about 55%.  QB Jaxton Dart is expected to return tonight after missing the last few weeks with a concussion.  Their offense has been particularly effective on early downs, averaging just over 5.3 yards per play, a noticeable jump from previous seasons. New York’s ability to push the ball vertically against a Patriots secondary allowing around 240 passing yards per game creates multiple pathways for chunk plays and quick scoring drives. Add in the Giants’ running game hovering near 110 yards per contest, and you get a balanced attack capable of consistently putting points on the board.

New England hasn’t been elite offensively, but they’ve taken a noticeable step forward, averaging approximately 20–22 points per game behind an offense that leans on a steady run game and play-action shots downfield. Their ground attack, sitting around 118 rushing yards per game, sets up manageable down-and-distance situations and helps sustain drives. More importantly for the OVER, the Patriots’ defense has slipped considerably, surrendering roughly 24–26 points per game and giving up over 360 total yards each week. Their inability to create steady pressure on opposing quarterbacks - generating only around 2 sacks per game - leaves them exposed against teams with competent passing structures, which the Giants have developed as the season has progressed.

Both teams also rank in the lower half of the league in explosive-play prevention, with New York allowing about 5.6 yards per play and New England sitting near 5.8, pointing to a matchup ripe for big gains on both sides. Combine that with two offenses trending upward, two defenses that bend (and often break), and a primetime environment that traditionally boosts scoring, and the ingredients are firmly in place for an OVER result.

Jim's Play: Take: 483. Giants/Patriots OVER 

Sunday’s matchup in Pittsburgh has the feel of a rugged AFC playoff-style game, which points to the Bills and Steelers landing under the total. Buffalo comes in 7-4 and second in the AFC East, averaging a strong 28.3 points per game but also allowing only 22.9, a profile built more on efficiency than pure tempo. Lately the Bills have leaned into a deliberate, run-heavy approach: they’re 7-4 while ranking near the top of the league in time of possession (over 32 minutes per game), running the ball on roughly 47% of their snaps and leading the NFL at about 5 yards per carry, a style that bleeds clock and shortens games even when they move the chains. Josh Allen still gives them explosive potential, but in cold late-November conditions with a chance of rain or snow in Pittsburgh and temps hovering in the 30s and low 40s, the incentive is to protect the ball, lean on James Cook and the ground game, and play field position. 

Pittsburgh, at 6-5 and atop the AFC North, is scoring a respectable 24.9 points per game but allowing 23.9, with an offense that has been more methodical than explosive behind Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ attack is also dealing with a key blow up front, as starting left tackle Broderick Jones has been placed on injured reserve, forcing veteran Andrus Peat into the lineup and likely encouraging more conservative protection schemes, quicker throws, and a heavier dose of Najee Warren on the ground rather than deep shots. Both defenses are good enough to get off the field on third down, and with Buffalo trying to dominate time of possession and Pittsburgh protecting a reshuffled line in wintry conditions, long, clock-draining drives, red-zone field goals, and a field-position battle all set up this Bills–Steelers clash to stay under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 477. Bills/Steelers UNDER 

Jacksonville enters Sunday as the clear favorite, but the betting market has set a moderate total in the low-40s, a number that already reflects some scoring expectation while still leaving room for upside if either offense finds rhythm. The Jaguars have been capable of putting up points in bunches lately, averaging over 30 points across a recent stretch and showing improved red-zone efficiency, which makes them dangerous in any game script where possessions open up and the score becomes a shootout. Trevor Lawrence’s ability to create explosive plays downfield and the Jaguars’ willingness to push tempo on early downs increase the probability of quick scoring drives that inflate the clock and the scoreboard, especially against a Tennessee defense that has struggled to consistently stop chunk plays.

Tennessee’s recent results mask a team that can still produce points in spurts; the Titans have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs this season and have shown the capacity to move the ball through the air when their quarterback gets time and targets find separation. Tennessee’s home games have featured multiple overs this year, and their recent outings include games that reached the over more often than not, signaling a pattern that favors totals bettors when the matchup presents mismatches in the secondary. Add in the Titans’ offensive personnel questions and a defense that has given up explosive gains, and you have the kind of game where a few big plays swing the total quickly.

Jacksonville’s offensive line has been more effective in pass protection of late, giving Lawrence time to target playmakers, while Tennessee’s pass rush has been inconsistent, allowing opposing quarterbacks to extend drives and convert third downs. Turnover trends and special teams also point toward extra possessions and short fields - both of which are catalysts for scoring spikes late in halves and in the fourth quarter. When one team scores quickly, the other is forced to respond, and that game script is a classic driver of totals finishing above the posted number.

Tennessee’s propensity for higher-scoring home games, and the matchup mismatches in the secondary and pass rush will push this game over the total.     

Jim's Play: 465. Jaguars / Titans OVER 

The Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis has big AFC South implications, with the Colts sitting at 8-3 and the Texans at 6-5, and it also sets up as a solid candidate to stay under the total. The Colts bring in the league’s highest scoring offense at about 31 points per game, but they have cooled a bit in recent weeks and could be shorthanded if breakout rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who leads the team in receiving, cannot go or is limited by illness. Houston’s profile points strongly to an under: DeMeco Ryans’ defense ranks near the top of the NFL in points allowed, giving up only about 16.5 per game, and has been especially stingy in the red zone, forcing opponents to settle for field goals more often than touchdowns. C.J. Stroud’s return from a concussion is a huge boost for the Texans’ offense, but it also suggests a conservative early script built around protecting the quarterback and leaning on a balanced attack and field position rather than turning this into a pure shootout. On the other side, Daniel Jones and the Colts offense are at their best when Jonathan Taylor and the ground game are setting up play action, which means plenty of clock-chewing drives instead of constant tempo. Add in a Colts defensive front bolstered by veteran Chris Wormley and a Houston defense that tackles well and limits explosives, and you have the recipe for a physical, playoff-style divisional game where both teams move the ball but long drives, red-zone resistance and a few timely third-down stops keep the combined score under the posted total. 

Jim's Play: 461. Texans / Colts UNDER 

The Sunday matchup on November 30 between the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns sets up as a classic defensive, field-position battle, which points strongly toward the game staying under the total. San Francisco’s identity under Kyle Shanahan has been built around a physical run game, efficient but controlled passing, and a defense that consistently ranks among the league’s toughest against both the run and the pass. That type of approach chews clock, leans on long, methodical drives, and limits the number of total possessions. Cleveland, meanwhile, brings its own rugged profile, with a front seven that can generate pressure with four, plug running lanes, and force offenses into short throws and checkdowns rather than explosive plays.

On offense, both teams prefer to set up the pass with the run rather than engage in a shootout. The 49ers typically rely on a zone-run scheme and quick-timing throws that prioritize ball security, while the Browns’ attack has often leaned on their ground game and play-action, especially when they want to protect the quarterback and avoid turnovers. In a game where both defenses can get after the passer, coaches are likely to play things conservatively on early downs, which creates a lot of 3rd-and-medium situations and potential stalled drives.  The Browns have the 2nd ranked defense, 11th vs the pass and 2nd vs the rush. They should give Chrisitan McCaffrey all he can handle rushing the ball here on Sunday. 

Add in the possibility of colder late-November conditions as the winds are expected to gust up to 35 MPH with some snow and rain possible.  All signs point to a tight, physical game where points are at a premium, making the under the preferred side on the total.

Jim's Play: 473. 49ers / Browns UNDER

Texas A&M and Texas renew the Lone Star Showdown on Friday, November 28, 2025 at Darrell K. Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin in a primetime matchup that has all the ingredients for a high-scoring game that clears the total. The Aggies come in unbeaten at 11-0 and ranked No. 3, riding an offense that averages around thirty points per game behind quarterback Marcel Reed, who has thrown for more than 2,700 yards this season with KC Concepcion as his top big-play target. Texas, ranked No. 16 at 8-3, counters with Arch Manning leading a passing attack that has caught fire down the stretch and helped the Longhorns win four of their last five, and this staff has a track record of putting up points, with Texas topping 30 points per game in 2024 and finishing 13-3 in that campaign. A&M’s defense is physical up front but has given up its share of chunk plays, while Texas has been more opportunistic than dominant, which points to both quarterbacks finding favorable matchups and sustained red-zone trips rather than stalled drives. With elite skill talent on both sidelines, aggressive playcalling expected, and a rivalry atmosphere in front of a sold-out crowd and national TV audience, the most likely script is a back-and-forth showdown where both teams push into the high 20s or low 30s, sending this one over the total.

Jim's Play: 335. Texas A&M / Texas OVER 

The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles meet Friday, November 28, 2025, in a game with defensive elements that can have an impact on the total. Chicago has embraced a bend-don’t-break, run-heavy identity under its current regime that is designed to shorten games, relying on the ground game and short-to-intermediate passing to move the sticks and keep the passing game in safe, high-percentage situations. That formula naturally results in fewer total plays, with a focus on controlling the line of scrimmage and dictating the pace while a shorter, sharper passing attack limits the effectiveness of the pass rush. Chicago’s pass rush has trended upward in recent seasons, giving the Bears options to create pressure without blitzing and with numbers in coverage.

Philadelphia’s offense is also more efficient than explosive at times, and the Eagles have been increasingly willing to play bully ball with long, sustained drives built around their powerful offensive line and a run-pass balance rather than trying to beat teams in a track meet. Against a Chicago defense that plays at a slower pace and will aim to keep everything in front of them, Philadelphia should lean on the ground game and possession passing to execute sustained drives, with an emphasis on field position and ball control. Given the late November date, with both teams content to run the ball and play a grind-it-out style that favors defense and the run game while the passing games take a back seat, there’s a recipe for a game script with a limited number of explosive plays and more of a focus on third-down efficiency and punting on early downs. 

Third downs and field goals instead of touchdowns become the name of the game, with both teams aiming to control the ball and stay close while their defenses keep the other team at bay. It’s a formula for a lower-scoring affair with both teams playing keep-away and the total number of possessions limited as both teams are content to grind away at the other on the ground. That’s the under recipe and gives this game a good chance to finish close and in the lower end of a wide range rather than a shootout.

Jim's Play: 313. Bears/Eagles Under 

The Egg Bowl between Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Mississippi State on Friday, November 28, 2025, sets up as the kind of rivalry game where intensity and defense can keep the scoring in check and push this one under the total. Even in years when Ole Miss brings in a higher-powered offense, this matchup often tightens up: emotions run high, every yard is contested, and coaching staffs are quicker to lean on field position, punting, and conservative calls on early downs rather than risking game-breaking mistakes. Ole Miss figures to lean on its ground game and short passing to stay on schedule, which keeps the clock moving and limits the number of possessions, especially if they’re playing from in front and happy to bleed time in the second half.

Mississippi State, for its part, typically has success when its defense can disrupt rhythm, win on early downs, and force long-yardage situations, and the Egg Bowl atmosphere usually brings out that extra edge from the Bulldogs’ front seven. Offensively, State has shifted in recent seasons toward a more balanced, less tempo-heavy approach than the peak Air Raid days, which also lends itself to longer drives and fewer snap totals overall. Red-zone execution will be a key theme: both defenses are capable of tightening inside the 20 and forcing field goals instead of touchdowns, which is crucial for an under ticket. Add in the late November setting, where weather, nerves, and the physical toll of a long SEC season can all slow offenses just a bit, and this shapes up more like a tough, chippy rivalry battle than a wide-open shootout. With both teams expected to lean on the run, play the field-position game, and protect the ball, the most likely script favors a lower-scoring Egg Bowl that stays under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 317.  Miss/Miss St UNDER 

This primetime AFC North clash has all the ingredients for a shootout: Baltimore arrives on a roll and is favored by about -7, but Cincinnati’s offense - especially if Joe Burrow is active or even limited - can push the pace and keep drives alive, while the Ravens’ offense has enough playmakers to answer back. Baltimore’s recent form has been strong, and the Ravens have leaned on a balanced attack that now includes a powerful running game and explosive receiving options; that balance forces opponents to defend the entire field and opens up big-play opportunities in both the pass and run game. Cincinnati, despite a 3-8 record, has shown it can score in bunches when its passing game clicks, and the Bengals’ recent matchups with Baltimore have produced plenty of combined points - a trend that supports the OVER.

Matchup dynamics favor scoring: the Ravens have been productive on offense and the Bengals have struggled to consistently stop explosive plays, which creates a favorable environment for quick strikes and sustained drives that inflate the scoreboard. Turnovers and special-teams swings could add to the scoring volatility; when either side turns the ball over in opponent territory, short fields often translate into easy points. Weather and venue factors at M&T Bank Stadium are not expected to be extreme, so neither team should be forced into a one-dimensional game plan that would suppress scoring.

With both teams capable of quick scoring, a likely uptick in offensive snaps if Burrow plays, and a market total around 52, the smart lean for Thanksgiving night is the OVER - expect a fast tempo, chunk plays, and enough scoring swings to push this game past the number

Jim's Play: 309. Bengals/Ravens OVER

Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan meet in another classic midweek MACtion matchup, but this one sets up far differently than the typical high-scoring, wild-tempo MAC shootouts. Both teams have leaned heavily on their running games throughout the season, partly by design and partly due to inconsistent quarterback play. Western Michigan’s offense has been at its best when grinding out long drives and keeping possessions methodical rather than explosive, and their passing game hasn’t shown the consistency needed to push totals upward. Eastern Michigan mirrors that identity: a run-first attack, a conservative approach on early downs, and a passing game that tends to settle for short, low-risk completions. When two ball-control offenses face off, clock bleed becomes a major factor - and it pushes games toward the UNDER.

Defensively, both teams match up well against what the other wants to do. Western Michigan’s front seven has been solid against the run, forcing opponents into slow, low-efficiency drives. Eastern Michigan’s defense, while not dominant, is fundamentally sound and rarely gives up quick-strike plays. Neither offense is built for explosive chunk gains, so long fields and multi-play drives will likely be the norm. Add in the November weather factor - cold, swirling winds, and potentially slick field conditions - and both coaching staffs are likely to lean even more into the ground game and field position. That’s a recipe for fewer possessions, fewer scoring opportunities, and extended stretches where the clock keeps rolling.

This rivalry usually plays tight, physical, and lower-scoring than expected, and the 2025 edition should follow that script. Expect a grind-it-out contest with both teams trading field goals rather than touchdowns. 

Jim's Play: 301. Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan UNDER (MAC Total of the Month)

Sunday’s matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders features two struggling teams, each entering the contest with a 2–8 record, and both dealing with significant offensive inconsistencies that point strongly toward a low-scoring game. Cleveland’s offense has been among the least productive units in the NFL, averaging just over sixteen points per game. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 937 yards this season, while running back Quinshon Judkins leads the team with 620 rushing yards, but the Browns have struggled to generate explosive plays or sustained drives. With Gabriel not in Sunday's game, the Browns have announced that Shedeur Sanders will be getting start.  The Raiders aren’t faring much better on the offensive side: quarterback Geno Smith leads the team with 2,082 passing yards, and running back Ashton Jeanty has produced 554 rushing yards, yet Las Vegas has consistently fallen into long scoring droughts and remains near the bottom of the league in points per game.

The Raiders defensive unit, while not elite, has benefited from the slow pace and inefficiency of their offenses, which naturally shortens games and suppresses scoring. The Browns have the 2nd rated defense in the NFL and top rushing defense. Cleveland’s defense thrives when forcing opponents into long, methodical drives, and the Raiders have shown an ability to limit big plays, even if they give up yardage between the 20s. With neither team equipped to push the tempo or create frequent explosive plays, this matchup sets up as a grind-it-out contest dominated by field position, conservative play-calling, and long stretches of clock-draining possessions.

Given the sluggish offenses, the reliance on short passing and predictable run schemes, and the tendency for both teams to stall in the red zone, this game profiles as a strong candidate to go UNDER the total. 

Jim's Play: 257. Browns / Raiders UNDER 

Sunday’s Seahawks-Titans matchup sets up as a grind, and the profile points to the Under. Seattle arrives at 7-3 with a top-tier defense (allowing 19.3 ppg, 6th) and a balanced offense that doesn’t need to force pace on the road. Quarterback Sam Darnold (2,541 pass yards), Kenneth Walker III (606 rush yards), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,146 rec yards) headline the production, but Seattle has increasingly leaned on defense and situational football to win-an approach that shortens games. 

 On the other side, Tennessee is 1-9 and ranks at or near the bottom of the league offensively: 14.3 points per game (32nd), 163.6 passing yards (30th), 78.9 rushing yards (32nd). QB Cam Ward (1,954 pass yards), Tony Pollard (502 rush yards), and Chig Okonkwo (337 rec yards) top the Titans’ stat board, but sustained drives have been elusive and explosive plays scarce. 

Put together, Seattle’s stingy scoring defense plus Tennessee’s league-worst output create a narrow scoring corridor. If the Seahawks play from ahead, they can lean on the run and their pass rush; if the game stays tight, the Titans’ conservative approach and third-down struggles keep the clock moving. Either way, the matchup math favors limited possessions and red-zone stalls, making this a strong lean for the game to stay Under the total.

Jim's Play: 249. Seahawks/Titans UNDER 

Michigan enters at 9-1 overall, 6-1 in the Big Ten, still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth. The Wolverines have leaned on their elite defense all season, allowing just 14.2 points per game, ranking among the nation’s best. Their defensive front, led by Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, has consistently shut down opposing run games, while their secondary has limited explosive plays. Offensively, Michigan has been efficient but not explosive, averaging 29 points per game, with quarterback J.J. McCarthy managing the offense and running back Donovan Edwards providing balance. Their style of play emphasizes ball control and field position, which naturally keeps scoring totals lower.

Maryland comes in at 6-4, 4-3 in the Big Ten, looking to secure bowl positioning. The Terrapins have been inconsistent offensively, averaging 25 points per game, but quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled against elite defenses, throwing multiple interceptions in key games. Maryland’s offensive line has been shaky, and facing Michigan’s pass rush will likely force them into a conservative game plan. Defensively, the Terps have been respectable, allowing 23 points per game, and they’ve shown the ability to limit opponents in the red zone.

Given Michigan’s defensive dominance and Maryland’s offensive struggles against top-tier competition, this number feels inflated. The Wolverines are built to grind games out, and Maryland’s defense is capable of keeping the score respectable even in defeat. Expect Michigan’s defense to dictate tempo, Maryland’s offense to struggle to sustain drives, and both teams to lean on conservative play-calling. With Michigan’s ball-control approach and Maryland’s limitations, this matchup projects as a low-scoring affair. Play the game to go Under the total points on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 143. Michigan/Maryland UNDER

Buffalo enters Week 12 at 7-3, riding momentum after a high-scoring win over Tampa Bay. Quarterback Josh Allen accounted for six total touchdowns in that game, but he also threw two interceptions, highlighting the risk of turnovers against a disciplined defense. The Bills’ offense has been explosive at times, averaging over 26 points per game, yet their production has been inconsistent when facing top-tier defenses. On the road in Houston, Allen will be challenged by a Texans unit that ranks among the league’s best in both yards and points allowed, surrendering just 16.3 points per game. Buffalo’s defense has also been stout, holding opponents under 20 points in four of their last six contests, which further supports a lower-scoring projection.

Houston comes in at 5-5, fresh off a gritty 16-13 win over Tennessee. The Texans’ offense has been limited without star quarterback C.J. Stroud, leaning on Davis Mills to manage the game rather than push the ball downfield. Houston has averaged just 18 points per game over their last month, relying heavily on their defense to keep them competitive. That defense has been elite, ranking first in total yards allowed and consistently shutting down opposing passing attacks. Against Buffalo, the Texans will look to slow tempo, force Allen into mistakes, and grind out possessions with their run game.

Houston’s defensive strength and offensive limitations, combined with Buffalo’s tendency to struggle against top defenses, this number feels inflated. Both teams are built to win through defense, and the Texans’ ability to control pace at home should keep scoring in check. Expect Buffalo’s offense to be tested by Houston’s elite defense, while the Texans’ conservative approach limits explosive plays. With both teams leaning on their defenses and the Texans’ offense lacking firepower, this Thursday night showdown projects as a grind-it-out battle. Play the game to go Under the total points.

Jim's Play: 111. Bills/Texans UNDER

The Dallas Cowboys enter Monday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders as slight road favorites, and the matchup sets up as a pivotal Week 11 clash with betting implications on both the side and total.  The Cowboys come in at 3-5-1, fresh off a bye week that allowed them to regroup after a disappointing home loss to Arizona. Dallas has struggled to find consistency, but quarterback Dak Prescott remains capable of exploiting a Raiders secondary that has been vulnerable to big plays. Running back Javonte Williams has given the Cowboys balance in the ground game, and his ability to finish drives in the red zone could be critical under the prime-time lights. Defensively, Dallas has been uneven, ranking near the bottom against opposing wide receivers, which means the Raiders will look to attack through the air with their vertical passing game.

The Raiders, meanwhile, limp into this contest at 2-7, riding a three-game losing streak. Their offense has been inconsistent, scoring just 10 points in last week’s loss to Denver, and they’ve struggled to protect quarterback Geno Smith behind a shaky offensive line. While the Raiders have shown flashes at home, their inability to sustain drives and finish in the red zone has been a recurring issue. Defensively, Las Vegas has been competitive but often worn down late in games, which could be problematic against a rested Cowboys team.

The Cowboys have been shaky against the spread this season, but their bye week and the Raiders’ offensive struggles tilt the edge toward Dallas. 

Expect the Cowboys to control the tempo with Prescott’s efficiency and Williams’ production on the ground. Against a Raiders team that has failed to generate momentum, Dallas should find enough balance to secure the win. Take the Cowboys on the money Line to win this Monday Night Football matchup.

Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities, and with Prescott capable of pushing the ball downfield and the Raiders likely forced into catch-up mode, points should pile up. The prime-time stage often brings offensive fireworks, and this game sets up no differently.  The Cowboys have the 31st ranked defense, 28th vs rush and 28th vs pass. Only Cincinnati is worse than Dallas.  Play the Over in Cowboys vs. Raiders.

Jim's Play: 477. Cowboys/Raiders Over

The Week 11 AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at Empower Field at Mile High sets up as a defensive battle. Kansas City enters at 5-4, fighting to stay in the division race after a disappointing loss to Buffalo before their bye. While Patrick Mahomes has historically dominated Denver, the Chiefs’ offense has been inconsistent this season, averaging just 22.7 points per game and struggling to find explosive plays without a true deep-threat receiver. Their defense, however, has been the strength of the team, ranking top-10 in scoring defense and holding opponents under 20 points in five of their last seven contests. Kansas City’s ability to generate pressure and force turnovers has kept them competitive even when the offense stalls.

Denver, meanwhile, comes in at 8-2, riding a seven-game winning streak and boasting a perfect 5-0 home record. Quarterback Bo Nix has managed games efficiently, but the Broncos’ success has been built on their defense, which ranks top-five in points allowed at just 18.2 per game. Denver has been particularly dominant at home, where crowd noise and altitude have helped them limit opponents’ offensive rhythm. Their secondary has been opportunistic, and their pass rush has consistently disrupted opposing quarterbacks.

Both teams have offensive talent, the matchup trends toward a lower-scoring affair. The Chiefs’ offensive struggles combined with Denver’s defensive dominance at home suggest long drives, fewer explosive plays, and a game decided by field position. Historically, meetings between these two teams in Denver have leaned toward defensive battles, and with playoff implications raising intensity, both defenses should dictate the pace.

Jim's Play: 473. Chiefs/Broncos UNDER 

Sunday’s AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field is shaping up as a defensive battle, with the weather conditions and both teams’ tendencies pointing toward the game staying under the total of 39.5 points.

The Ravens enter at 4-5, riding a three-game winning streak after a 27-19 victory over Minnesota. Lamar Jackson has been steady but not explosive, throwing for 176 yards last week while adding 36 on the ground. Derrick Henry continues to provide balance in the run game, but Baltimore’s offense has leaned on efficiency rather than fireworks. Defensively, the Ravens have improved in recent weeks, holding opponents under 20 points in back-to-back contests, and their ability to pressure quarterbacks should be a key factor against Cleveland.

The Browns, at 2-7, remain in rebuilding mode. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel showed flashes against the Jets with two touchdown passes, but Cleveland’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring and total yards. Running back Quinshon Judkins has been a bright spot, yet the offensive line has struggled to open consistent lanes. Defensively, however, the Browns remain formidable, ranking second overall in total defense and top-five against the pass. Their ability to slow down Jackson’s aerial attack and force Baltimore into long drives makes this matchup particularly favorable for a low-scoring outcome.

Weather will play a role as well. Cleveland’s forecast for Sunday calls for mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid-40s. But it's the wind that is most concern with winds up to 35 MPG.  And if you have ever played football you know what havoc the winds can to do a game from passing to kicking and helping defenses. With both teams already leaning on the run and short passing, the wind and cool temperatures should further suppress scoring opportunities.

While the Ravens’ recent surge makes them the side to back, the combination of Cleveland’s defensive strength, Baltimore’s methodical offensive approach, and the weather forecast all point toward a grind-it-out divisional contest.

Jim's Play:  471. Ravens/Browns UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

Sunday’s NFC West clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair. San Francisco enters at 6-4, looking to rebound after a tough divisional loss to the Rams. Quarterback Brock Purdy is expected back from a toe injury, and his return should stabilize the 49ers’ passing attack, which ranks top-5 in the NFL in yards per game. Christian McCaffrey remains one of the league’s most versatile threats. While the offense has been potent, San Francisco’s defense has shown cracks, giving up 42 points to Los Angeles last week and ranking middle of the pack in scoring defense.

Arizona, meanwhile, comes in at 3-6, but the Cardinals have been competitive at home and are coming off a 44-22 loss to Seattle where their offense still managed over 350 total yards. The Cardinals’ defense, however, has been a liability, ranking bottom-10 in points allowed and struggling to contain explosive passing games. Against a 49ers offense loaded with playmakers, Arizona will likely need to trade scores to stay competitive.

San Francisco has cleared the total in three of its last four games, while Arizona’s defensive issues have consistently pushed their contests higher-scoring. Expect fireworks in Glendale. With Brock Purdy returning to lead San Francisco’s explosive offense, this divisional matchup is primed to go over the total.

Jim's Play: 469. Niners/Cardinals OVER

The Week 11 NFC West clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at SoFi Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair, with the angle favoring the game to go over the total of 48.5 points.

Both teams enter at 7-2, riding four-game winning streaks and battling for first place in the division. Seattle’s offense has been rolling behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who completed 86% of his passes over the last two weeks and led the Seahawks to a 44-22 win over Arizona in Week 10. Running back Zach Charbonnet continues to provide balance, averaging nearly six yards per carry, while Seattle’s receiving corps has been efficient in creating explosive plays. The Seahawks rank top-10 in scoring offense, and their ability to stretch the field vertically has kept defenses off balance.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been equally impressive. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been red-hot, throwing 13 touchdowns with no interceptions over his last three games. Los Angeles is averaging over 30 points per game during their current win streak, with wideouts Davonta Adams and Puka Nacua consistently producing chunk plays. Defensively, the Rams have talent, but they’ve been vulnerable against strong passing attacks, allowing opponents to move the ball through the air.

While both defenses are capable of generating pressure, the offensive firepower on both sides makes the over the stronger play. Seattle has hit overs in three of its last four games, while the Rams have cleared the total in back-to-back contests. With two quarterbacks in rhythm, explosive playmakers on both rosters, and playoff implications raising the stakes, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 467. Seahawks /Rams OVER 

Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium is primed for points. Chicago enters at 6-3, riding momentum after back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Giants. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been the spark, averaging over 260 passing yards per game while adding mobility that stresses defenses. The Bears’ offense ranks 7th in the NFL in scoring (26.6 points per game), and wide receiver Rome Odunze has emerged as a reliable big-play threat. However, Chicago’s defense has been a liability, ranking 28th in scoring defense and allowing 27.4 points per game, which has consistently pushed their contests into high-scoring territory.

Minnesota, meanwhile, sits at 4-5, looking to rebound after a 27-19 loss to Baltimore. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has shown flashes of promise, throwing for 248 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens, but turnovers remain an issue. The Vikings’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 22nd in scoring, yet with playmakers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they have the ability to stretch defenses vertically. At home, Minnesota has struggled to close games, but their offensive potential combined with Chicago’s defensive weaknesses sets up a favorable scoring environment.

The Bears’ offensive surge under Williams, paired with their defensive struggles, makes the over the stronger play. Chicago has hit overs in three of its last four games, while Minnesota’s passing attack is well-positioned to exploit the Bears’ secondary. With both teams fighting for divisional positioning and capable of trading scores, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 461. Bears/Vikings OVER

This Wednesday night MAC showdown between Toledo and Miami (Ohio) at Yager Stadium sets up as a defensive grind, with both teams’ strengths pointing toward the game staying under the posted total of 45.5 points. Toledo enters at 5-4, fresh off a dominant 42-3 win over Northern Illinois, but the Rockets’ identity this season has been built on their elite defense, which ranks second nationally in total yards allowed and top-five against the pass. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage and limit explosive plays has consistently shortened games, forcing opponents into long, inefficient drives. 

Miami (Ohio), also 5-4, leans on a veteran defense and a measured run game. The RedHawks’ offense averages just 25 points per game, and when their ground attack stalls, they struggle to sustain drives. Against Toledo’s brick-wall front, Miami will likely find it difficult to reach its usual rushing benchmarks, which has historically been the key to their success.  While Toledo’s offense has shown flashes-quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for over 300 yards last week-the Rockets are not a tempo team. They thrive on methodical possessions, winning first downs and grinding out 8-10 play drives. That style, combined with Miami’s conservative approach, points toward a slower pace and fewer possessions overall. Miami’s defense, ranked top-40 nationally in scoring defense, is capable of holding Toledo in check, especially in the red zone where the Rockets have occasionally stalled.

Two defenses ranked among the MAC’s best, offenses that prefer balance over explosiveness, and a rivalry game where field position and special teams could dictate the outcome. With both teams fighting for MAC East positioning, expect a tight, possession-heavy contest where points come at a premium.

Pregame angle: Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) is primed to stay under the total, with both defenses controlling the pace and limiting scoring opportunities in a midweek MAC grinder.

Jim's Play: 307.  Toledo/Miami UNDER

The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings will match up on Sunday  Week 10. The total is in the high-40s (48–49) as of Sunday afternoon, which is on target with two teams that have each flirted with shootout territory at different points: Baltimore has shown an explosive passing and rushing balance led by Lamar Jackson and playmakers who delivered a 28–6 bounce-back win last week, while Minnesota, buoyed by J.J. McCarthy’s resurgence and a 27–24 win over Detroit, has leaned into quicker tempo and efficient third-down offense at U.S. Bank Stadium. The matchup dynamics favor the over: Baltimore can create chunk plays through Jackson’s arm and quarterback-designed runs, and Minnesota can respond with a multi-route passing attack and Aaron Jones’ downhill running that forces defenses into conflict; both teams have also shown recent defensive vulnerabilities on extended drives and in giving up big-play yardage, which would raise the odds of long possessions and quick-scoring responses instead of a low-possession, slow-paced slog. Both teams in need of momentum in the third quarter of the season should push the coaches to be aggressive on fourth downs and in two-minute windows - coaching tendencies that typically help to lift totals. Bettors hunting value would have their best chance by targeting the game to go over the listed total.

Jim's Play: 261. Ravens / Vikings OVER 

Tampa Bay hosts New England at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, and the setup tilts to the Buccaneers. The Patriots arrive 7-2 behind rookie Drake Maye and a top-ranked run defense, but they’re shorthanded with Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte ruled out, which narrows their margin on the road. Tampa Bay is 6-2, back from a bye, and gets a timely boost with starting right tackle Luke Goedeke activated, helping stabilize protection for Baker Mayfield. The Bucs’ pass rush has been productive, tied for fifth in sacks, and that pressure plus home crowd noise can bother a young quarterback. Red zone is another swing area: Tampa’s efficiency has lagged, but the Patriots have struggled badly defending inside the 20. Both these offenses can put up big numbers.  The Patriots are 12th in the league in total offense, 19th in rushing and 9th in passing. The Bucs are 17th in overall offense, 24th in rushing and 13th passing. Both teams likely to put up a log of passes here today. I'm taking the OVER. 

Jim's Play: 263. Patriots / Buccaneeres OVER

Buffalo comes in off a strong stretch, with its defense ranked 12th in yards allowed and 9th in points allowed per game, at roughly 311.3 yards and ~20.9 points respectively. Meanwhile, Miami’s offense is improving steadily, particularly in its short-pass game — a 75% completion rate in certain zones validates the notion they’re finding more rhythm. Both teams also rank among the league’s best in third-down conversion rates (Bills ~69.9%, Dolphins ~67.8%), which strongly supports sustained drives, red-zone trips and ultimately higher scoring. The market’s expected point total sits around 50.5.

So what drives the “Over”? Buffalo still has explosive offensive capability under Josh Allen, and although Miami’s record (2-7) looks rough, those numbers largely mask an offense that has shown bursts and a defense that’s prone to giving up chunk plays. And for Miami, facing a Bills team that attacked efficiently ahead — you can expect some back-and?forth. Combine the statistical foundation (efficient third downs, red-zone conversion potential) with recent trends and the divisional familiarity, and you’ve got the recipe for a higher-scoring affair. Expect multiple possessions, likely at least one defensive breakdown or big play, and both teams moving the ball enough to push the total beyond 50.

In short: I’m expecting this one to clear the line — Over the total is the lean.

Jim's Play: 257. Bills / Dolphins OVER 

The Monday night clash between the Arizona Cardinals (2-5) and Dallas Cowboys (3-4-1) sets up as a sneaky shootout. Despite both teams struggling midseason, the ingredients for a high-scoring affair are in place.

Arizona’s offense, led by veteran Jacoby Brissett in Kyler Murray’s absence, has quietly remained competitive. They’ve lost five straight, but none by more than four points, and they’ve scored 23+ in three of those games. Dallas’s defense, typically a strength, was gashed for 44 points last week by Denver. Their secondary has been vulnerable, and they’ve allowed 27+ points in four of their last five outings.  Both teams trend OVER: Dallas is 6-2 to the Over this season, and Arizona’s last three games have all cleared the posted totals. 

With a total set at 54.5, this game could easily eclipse that mark if both offenses find rhythm early. Look for explosive plays, red zone efficiency, and a few defensive breakdowns to push this one OVER.

As for the side play. 

Dallas is undefeated at AT&T Stadium this season (2-0-1), and they’ve historically performed well in prime time.  QB Dak Prescott, despite a rough Week 8, is still the more dynamic passer. Brissett is serviceable but lacks the upside to stretch the field consistently.  After surrendering 44 to Denver, expect Matte Eberflus's unit to tighten up. Arizona’s offensive line has struggled, and Brissett has been sacked 7 times in his last two starts. Dallas sits second in the NFC East and needs this win to stay in playoff contention.  They are in a must win spot at this point in the season. Arizona, meanwhile, is reeling and coming off a bye with little momentum.  The Cardinals are in last in the NFC West and all three teams above them have five wins. 

I'll take the Cowboys here on Monday, but I will take them on the Money Line to just win the game and not have to cover the spread. 

Seattle has found a lot of offensive success through the first half of the season. Sam Darnold has connected with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for over 1,700 yards and 12 touchdowns in just his first seven starts for the Seahawks. Smith-Njigba is leading the NFL in receiving yards through Week 8 and his connection with Darnold has helped Seattle have one of the most explosive passing games in the league. With the help of Kenneth Walker III on the ground, the Seahawks have created a complete and balanced offense that should move the ball against a Washington defense that has shown vulnerability to big plays in 2025. Seattle should be able to find gaps in the Commanders defense and continue their scoring ways on Sunday night.

The return of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels from injury has provided the Commanders with a major offensive upgrade. Daniels has shown great poise in the pocket and also possesses the athleticism and vision to run for positive yardage. His combination of passing and rushing ability will create problems for Seattle’s defense, which will have to respect the possibility of him breaking the pocket for chunks of yards at any time. Daniels will have the weapons he needs to connect with if star wide receiver Terry McLaurin is unable to go in this contest, as Jahan Dotson and Brian Robinson Jr. have all proven to be reliable targets in their own right. With the game being at home and the stage of primetime, Washington has all the motivation they need to keep up with a potent Seahawks offense, and that should be reflected in an aggressive and attacking game plan from coach Dan Quinn and his staff.

The current total is being set around 47-48.5 points and all signs point to this game going OVER. Seattle has been scoring at a rate of just under 27 points per game this season, while Washington has the talent and offense to also string together drives in the scoring column, especially when Daniels is at the helm. The defenses have both looked weak at times and especially have struggled when games are on the line in the red zone, which leads to the possibility of touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. Daniels and Darnold are both athletic enough to extend plays and open up the game with their feet. This game could very well turn into an offensive shootout, and with two of the best games in the NFL facing off against each other, the OVER is the smart play.

Jim's Play: Take: 473. Seahawks/Commanders Over 

Kansas City and Buffalo have developed one of the NFL’s top rivalries this decade, and Sunday’s meeting has all the markings of a playoff game, which is not a surprise given the high level of play both teams are showcasing. For the Chiefs, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been heating up in recent weeks, having tossed nine touchdowns over the past three games, and the addition of Rashee Rice to the mix gives Kansas City another trusted target along with Travis Kelce and burner Xavier Worthy. Combined with the strong production from running back, the Chiefs offense has been efficient and balanced all season. In an area of weakness for the Bills’ defense, the run game, Kansas City should have an easy time establishing the ground attack, sustaining drives, and putting points on the board. Buffalo has had one of the NFL’s most efficient home winning streaks in recent weeks, and quarterback Josh Allen is always at his best in front of a Bills’ home crowd. Running back James Cook III  who already has seven rushing touchdowns in eight games, and Buffalo has the weapons to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense, score for score. If there’s one area of Kansas City’s defense that the Bills can exploit, it’s against mobile quarterbacks. The Chiefs have been opportunistic, but the defense is playing at a step slower than their opponents’ quarterbacks are capable of attacking with. Allen’s ability to extend plays with his legs and make throws downfield will be the key to keeping Buffalo’s offense going.

For these reasons, the betting market has set the over/under for this game at 52.5 points, the highest of the week. Both teams are in the top ten in scoring offense, and the last 10 games between these teams have featured six OVER games. When you add in the big-play ability of the offenses for both teams, led by two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in Mahomes and Allen, the stage is set for yet another high-scoring affair.

This Week 9 meeting between Kansas City and Buffalo checks all the boxes of a potential classic, featuring two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks at the helm, explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball, and the playoff implications that are present with every game this late in the season. Expect this game to be a back-and-forth affair full of momentum swings, big plays, and the scoreboard to keep climbing at both ends. The smart bet is for this game to go OVER the total points.

Jim's Play: Take: 471. Chiefs/Bills OVER 

The Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) travel to Nissan Stadium to face the Tennessee Titans (1-7) on Sunday, November 2, 2025, in a Week 9 AFC matchup. With the over/under set at 43.5 points, the offensive firepower of Justin Herbert and the Chargers combined with Tennessee’s defensive injuries make the OVER the smart play.

The Chargers come into this game riding momentum after a dominant 37-10 win over Minnesota in Week 8. Justin Herbert has been in peak form, leading the NFL in passing yards and ranking among the top three in touchdown passes. His chemistry with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston has given Los Angeles a vertical passing attack that can stretch defenses, while Kimani Vidal has provided balance on the ground with his physical running style. Against a Titans defense missing key starters like Jeffery Simmons and Arden Key, Herbert should have plenty of time to operate and push the ball downfield. The Chargers have averaged 27 points per game over their last three outings, and their offensive rhythm suggests another high-scoring performance is on the horizon.

For Tennessee, the season has been a struggle, but there are reasons to believe they can contribute to the total. Rookie quarterback Cameron Ward has shown flashes of promise, throwing for over 250 yards in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Titans’ offense has been inconsistent, they still have playmakers in Tony Pollard and Treylon Burks who can generate chunk plays. With the Chargers’ defense prone to giving up explosive gains through the air, Ward may find opportunities to keep Tennessee competitive on the scoreboard, even if they ultimately fall short.

The betting market has the total set at 43.5 points, and the matchup dynamics lean toward the OVER. The Chargers’ offense is too potent to be slowed by a depleted Titans defense, and Tennessee’s ability to score in garbage time or on a few big plays should help push the total past the number. Add in the fact that Los Angeles has hit the OVER in four of their last six games, and the conditions are ripe for another high-scoring affair.

In short, this Week 9 clash looks like a game where the Chargers dictate tempo, Herbert lights up the stat sheet, and the Titans do just enough offensively to push the scoreboard higher. The smart play is on this contest going OVER 43.5 points.

Jim's Play: Take: 465. Chargers/Titans OVER 

Denver has found ways to win its past five games by controlling the clock, winning the turnover battle and keeping the points down. Rookie QB Bo Nix has been efficient (4 TDs, 1 INT in last week’s win at Dallas) but Denver’s offense is a run-first attack led by J.K. Dobbins and designed to be methodical and protect the football. Head coach Sean Payton has been outspoken about reducing mistakes and winning the field-position battle, and that has helped keep the Broncos ahead but also kept the pace of games down. The Broncos defense is also top-10 in the league in points allowed, and they generate pressure up front without blitzing, forcing opponents into errors.

Houston has exceeded expectations so far in 2025, and it is all because of the development of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been better every week, including his best game yet in last week’s 26-17 win at San Francisco, when he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. However, the Texans offense has also struggled to consistently finish drives in the red zone and has gone away from the run at times. Houston has the defensive chops to make Denver’s offense work for everything this week, and it’s led by second-year pro Will Anderson Jr. at outside linebacker. The Texans’ defense is near the top of the league in yards allowed and has shown the ability to limit big plays and could again this week against Denver. The over/under opened around 43 points but has been bet down to about 39.5–40.5, and that price looks right considering both teams are susceptible to games that stay UNDER this season. Denver has gone UNDER in four of its last six games, and Houston has gone UNDER in three of its last four. Add in the potential for long drives and turnovers being the difference in this game, and points will likely be at a premium.

Jim's Play: 463. Broncos/Texans UNDER  

The Chicago Bears (4-3) will face the Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) on Sunday, November 2, 2025, at Paycor Stadium in Week 9. The over/under for the game is set at 51.5 points. This number has value going OVER based on the offensive playmaking ability of both teams as well as their recent scoring output.

Chicago comes into this game after a 30-16 loss to Baltimore but the Bears’ offense has been trending in the right direction with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams leading the way. Williams is already over 1,600 yards through the air on the season and has a dynamic young wide receiver in Rome Odunze, who he has quickly developed chemistry with down the field. Swift is a dynamic playmaker who has been good as both a runner and receiver, but he will miss this game on Sunday due to a hip injury.  They will also be without backup RB Roschon Johnson. Rookie RB Kyle Monangai  will take the heavy load at RB here on Sunday.  Chicago is averaging 24 points per game on the season and has scored over 25 points in four of its last five games. The Bears will likely lean heavily on Williams and the passing game early and often in this contest, which means a high-scoring affair is likely.

The Bengals come into this game off a 39-38 loss to the Jets in Week 8. The Bengals were able to be explosive on offense in that game but their defense also struggled as the Jets scored 38 points. Cincinnati signed veteran quarterback Joe Flacco midseason after starting quarterback Joe Burrow went down with an injury and it looks like it was a move of pure genius. Flacco has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last two games and he has one of the best receivers in the game in Ja’Marr Chase at his disposal. Cincinnati’s passing game is almost certain to score points in this game and the defense will likely struggle to keep Chicago from doing the same. The Bengals are giving up almost 30 points per game over their last three games, and it seems reasonable to expect a similar showing in this game.

The total is set at 51.5 points. Cincinnati’s last two games have totaled over 70 points and Chicago has averaged nearly 380 yards of offense over its last three games. The match-ups between both offenses are tantalizing, with two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly down the field, and both teams having playmakers that can take over games at any moment. The two defenses have struggled to make stops consistently as well, so expect another shootout in this one that results in a win for the OVER.

Jim's Play: 451. Bears/Bengals OVER 

In their Week 8 Monday Night Football showdown, the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs both point towards a high scoring affair, which makes this prime time matchup one to watch at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have been a well-oiled machine, going into the game at 4-3 and fresh off of a 31-0 annihilation of the Raiders last week. Patrick Mahomes threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while Kansas City’s dynamic duo of wideouts, with Rashee Rice returning from suspension and Travis Kelce continuing to be as impossible to cover as ever, were on top of their game. Meanwhile, Washington is entering with a not-so-favorable record of 3-4 and the possibility of losing Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels. However, back up QB Marcus Mariota showcased big play ability in relief, including a 34-yard run of his own last week against the Dallas Cowboys. The 44-22 defeat was one that showed the potential of Commanders’ ability to score points as well as move the ball behind playmakers such as Robbie Chosen and the rest of their dynamic backfield. While the Chiefs’ defense has stepped up, Washington is a very aggressive scheme that will look to expose gaps in coverage through Mariota’s mobility when it matters least. Kansas City’s offense is an early touchdown bonanza waiting to happen, and if Washington can keep pace late as they have shown potential to, this game should cruise past the total in a prime-time shootout.

Jim's Play : Take: 283. Commanders/Chiefs OVER

Missouri arrives with a potent offense, averaging roughly 41.7 points per game and allowing about 19.5 points on defense. They’re piling up yards: around 242 passing and 245 rushing per game. Among their key players: QB Beau Pribula leads the team with about 1,617 passing yards so far. RB Ahmad Hardy has emerged as a major threat, rushing for roughly 840 yards. Missouri’s defense is stout too — opponents average just over 4.1 yards per play.

On the Vanderbilt side, they’ve been quietly effective. They average about 41.4 points per game and give up about 20.0. QB Diego Pavia has thrown for approximately 1,569 yards this season. Vanderbilt’s offense is balanced and efficient, and their defense has tightened up, especially in home games.

Given these stats and match-up dynamics, here’s why Vanderbilt covering and the total going under makes sense: Missouri’s high-powered offense has been impressive, but Vanderbilt at home is disciplined and able to slow things down. Vanderbilt’s improved defensive consistency suggests they’ll force Missouri into a more deliberate pace. Meanwhile, the Commodores’ offense, led by Pavia, can keep enough pressure on Missouri without turning it into a shoot-out. I expect both defenses to win pivotal moments - the game stays comfortable but not wild, so the total stays under. 

Jim's Play: 183. Missouri/Vandy UNDER 

Minnesota comes in with a 3-3 record, currently in 4th in the NFC North. Offensively they’ve had some movement: 1,525 total yards or an average of a little over 305 yards per game. They are 534 yards on the ground (4.5 yards per carry) and 1,121 through the air (224 or so per game, give or take). Defensively they’ve held their own at times: among the better yards-against rates in the league early on. But they’ve also had trouble with turnovers and the red-zone: finding difficulty converting trips to the end zone while also being prone to giving up big plays at inopportune times. They’re a talented team, but with lapses of concentration and mistakes. They need to clean it up. 

The Chargers are currently 4-3, in 2nd in the AFC West. Offensively they’ve had more productivity: 2,609 total yards through seven games - averaging a little over 372 yards per game. They have 778 yards on the ground (averaging 111 yards per game) and 1,957 through the air (roughly 280 per game). On third-down situations the Chargers convert on about 46% of their attempts and have a slight negative turnover margin (-3). Defensively and structurally, they’re showing some positive changes under new coaching. But they still give up plays and lack overall consistency.

The Vikings are better on the ground (534 yards so far), and that Minnesota rushing attack will test the Chargers’ front line. If the Vikings can get a push, set up play-action, control time of possession, they’ll keep LA’s defense on its heels.  The Chargers are a passing-oriented team and have been able to move the ball through the air effectively. Minnesota’s secondary and pass rush will need to show up to disrupt that. The Chargers have the home field advantage, which should help - they have the room to be loose. 

The Chargers right now are a more stable team: record is better, less glaring issues. The Vikings have the talent and potential to put up a fight, but they also have real issues, inconsistency, turning it over. If the Vikings show up, play a disciplined game and minimize their mistakes they have a chance.  I expect both teams to be able to move the ball here on Thursday and put up plenty of points in this one.  I don't like either side that much but I do like the game to go OVER the total. 

Jim's Play: Take: 109. Vikings/Chargers OVER 

Week 7 comes to a close with one of the best NFC battles of the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions on Monday night. Tampa Bay is at 5-1 and sitting atop the conference, while the Lions are 4-2 and hungry after a bad loss to Kansas City on the road. There are also some similarities: Both have dynamic offenses, playmakers at every level and a playoff atmosphere that should make for a highly entertaining prime time contest.

Baker Mayfield continues to have efficient play in key moments and strong chemistry with a retooled receiving group. Mike Evans is expected back from a hamstring injury and rookie Emeka Egbuka is a game-time decision, while Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin have been ruled out. Even with those players missing, Tampa’s offense has weapons that can beat a Lions defense that has serious problems in the secondary through the air.

Detroit has ridden a physical run game, play-action with quarterback Jared Goff and opportunistic defense to get to 4-2. The Lions have the fourth-best run DVOA and have proven to be one of the league’s best teams at run defenses this year, but the Buccaneers run defense is more susceptible and will need to answer the bell against D’Andre Swift and the run game. Safety Brian Branch will be suspended and out for the Lions, which does not bode well for a secondary that already was prone to big plays.

Both of these teams will be able to score. The number in this game is hovering around 52.5 points and the matchup could play over that. Tampa will likely be forced into a pass-heavy script with their injuries, and the Lions will look to control tempo but take what they need to through the air, too, if the Buccaneers get aggressive. Both offenses have been able to do this with their quarterbacks in good form and their defenses showing some cracks, most notably inside the red zone. This game has shootout potential if both sides play up to form.

Jim's Play: 475. Bucs/Lions OVER

The Denver Broncos (4-2) come into Week 7 with a high-powered defense that is one of the best in the NFL, and an improving offense. The New York Giants (2-4) have a good defense of their own but are still struggling to find identity and rhythm on offense, especially on the road, where they are 0-3. They are visiting Mile High in this Sunday matchup against the Broncos, a team looking to prove it has the ability to compete with any team on any given Sunday. The two teams have a sharp contrast in strengths - Denver has a top-five defense, and the Giants have a growing offense - and their game should be low-scoring with lots of stops and starts.

The Broncos have the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up only 15.8 points per game. The defense has actually been even better over their three-game win streak, allowing only 10.3 points and 181 total yards per game in their last three wins. The Denver offense has been competent but unspectacular, led by QB Bo Nix, who has 1,277 passing yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on around 64.6% passing in six games played. Nix has been flanked by J.K. Dobbins and Laviska Shenault Jr. in the backfield. Dobbins has 442 yards on 90 carries (4.9 Y/A, 4 TD) and Shenault 232 yards on 34 catches (6.8 Y/C).

The Giants are one of the few teams with a rookie running back in Cam Skattebo who has had better production than most vets in the league. Skattebo has recorded five total touchdowns (5), tied for the most among all rookies this season. On the other hand, New York has a record of 2-4, and their offense in particular has been mostly middling to put it lightly. 

Field position and execution in the trenches should dictate which team has more success in the game. The Broncos’ pass rush will be able to create chaos against the Giants’ offensive line, and New York will likely have trouble consistently sustaining drives without big plays. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense hasn’t looked great but has also been capable of moving the ball. The Broncos have done a good job of methodically wearing defenses down over long drives and run games. A final score of under 40.5 points is looking very likely with the game script for this one. This is a game that should come down to winning the line of scrimmage and field position, and both defenses are superior to their opposing offenses. Expect long, plodding drives on both sides and a physical, defense-oriented game.

Jim's Play : 467. Giants/Broncos UNDER 

In a key NFC showdown, the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles head to Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Eagles come in with confidence after a strong first half of the season, riding a dominant run game and efficient defense. Minnesota, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, showing flashes of promise but lacking the execution needed to hang with elite opponents.

 It’s a must-win for Minnesota if they want to stay afloat, while the Eagles have been firing on all cylinders in the first half of the season and will feel good about their chances to win it in the North. However, the Vikings have played lights out at home this year, and an upset could be in the cards if they can be physical, take care of the football, and hold an Eagles offense that will likely be conservative on the road.

The outcome of the game will be decided in the trenches. The Eagles O-line has remained one of the best in football and will look to run the ball right at the Vikings to control time of possession. Philadelphia has enough at the skill positions to take what’s given to them, and with Jared Goff out they’re also a solid bet to be well under the projected pass attempts. The Vikings have been leaky in pass protection, and they’ll be tested by a Philadelphia front four that can create pressure without bringing extra defenders. Minnesota’s offense can easily be stalled by that pressure, and if the Vikings fall behind early it could get ugly. They will need to keep the Eagles honest with quick throws, and their defense will have to create opportunities to change the possession in their favor.

 The Eagles will likely grind out clock, go conservative on offense, and be efficient. Minnesota will likely need to be as well to give themselves a chance, though they are capable of a cover on the back end. Both teams can be stopped in the red zone, and long possessions might end in field goals.

Jim's Play: 461. Eagles/Vikes UNDER 

Two struggling teams will clash in Cleveland on Sunday as the 1-5 Miami Dolphins visit the 1-5 Cleveland Browns. Both franchises are desperate to stop the bleeding and salvage their seasons, but this game is shaping up to be a gritty, low-scoring affair, especially with extreme weather conditions in the forecast.

The Dolphins come in with major concerns on both sides of the ball. Their offense has sputtered in recent weeks, failing to consistently protect the quarterback or establish a reliable ground game. More troubling, though, is their defense- particularly against the run. Miami currently ranks last in the NFL, allowing nearly 170 rushing yards per game. That could spell trouble against a Browns team that, despite offensive struggles, excels at running the football and has a punishing offensive line.

Cleveland hasn’t looked much better on offense. Their quarterback play has been inconsistent, and explosive plays have been rare. But their defense - especially their run-stopping front - is a bright spot, giving up fewer than 80 rushing yards per game. Defensive end Myles Garrett and the Browns’ front seven should be able to generate pressure and contain Miami’s offense, particularly if the Dolphins are forced into obvious passing situations.

Weather will play a significant role. The forecast calls for heavy rain, 94% precipitation, and wind gusts between 40-60 mph. That will likely eliminate the deep passing game and make field goals treacherous. Expect a run-heavy game plan from both teams, with coaches focused on field position, ball security, and clock control.

These conditions heavily favor Cleveland. Their physical running game and superior defense are built for bad weather. Meanwhile, Miami’s struggles to stop the run and protect the ball become even more problematic in a muddy, windy battle. The Dolphins’ best shot may come from forcing turnovers or getting a special teams boost.

Given all of these factors, expect a sluggish, low-scoring affair. The total is likely to go under, as both teams will struggle to move the ball through the air or finish drives. Vegas has Cleveland favored, and for good reason - they’re better built for ugly football.

Jim's Play: 456. Dolphins/Browns UNDER 

Sunday’s international game lands in London as the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars hop over the pond for this week 7 clash. Both squads have competent offenses, but travel, the time-zone shift, and the match-ups should favor a lower-scoring affair. The Jaguars have been to London numerous times in the last several seasons, but the Rams pack a veteran presence in Matthew Stafford who is never as explosive as the home team on the road. Both defenses are trending in the right direction, and fields are usually more sluggish overseas, so let’s take the Under.

Stafford is still effectively piloting the Rams’ offense, having eclipsed 1,500 passing yards and recorded 10 touchdowns, but the team has committed to a balanced attack, using more of running back Kyren Williams to dictate the pace. Davante Adams has recorded over 500 receiving yards, and Puka Nacua has emerged as a reliable second option, but Los Angeles could look to be more ball-control focused and avoid big plays against a Jacksonville secondary that can match up well with most opponents. Note: Nacua is expected to miss Sunday's game with a leg injury. 

Jacksonville will test the Rams’ defense with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr., but the Jaguars have occasionally been wasteful at the end of drives, settling for field goals over touchdowns. Lawrence has close to 1,600 passing yards through eight games, and Etienne is always a play-making threat in space, but the Rams defensive front is well equipped to stuff inside runs. The Jaguars’ defense, anchored by linebacker Foye Oluokun and edge rusher Josh Allen, has also improved over recent weeks, regularly getting opponents into third-and-long and keeping games close.

The offense can take time to find a rhythm, especially after a long trip, but both units can move the ball. Look for longer, more conservative possessions and less emphasis on field position.

Jim's Play: 451. Rams/Jags UNDER

Texas Tech is 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Big 12 play. Arizona State comes in at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference games. On Texas Tech’s side, their quarterback Behren Morton has completed 104 of 152 passes for 1,501 yards, with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Their rushing leader, C. Dickey, has carried the ball 92 times for 593 yards and 8 touchdowns. On the receiving end, C. Douglas has 24 catches for 395 yards and 1 touchdown so far.

For Arizona State, Sam Leavitt has thrown 99 of 157 for 1,039 yards, with 8 touchdowns and 3 picks. Running back Raleek Brown has 91 carries for 573 yards (though modest touchdown production so far). At wideout, Jordyn Tyson has 47 receptions for 523 yards and has been one of Leavitt’s primary targets.

Given those numbers, the game looks to be a shootout. Tech’s offense is humming, and Arizona State has at least one explosive threat in Tyson to keep defenses honest. If ASU can avoid stalling drives and Texas Tech continues to execute, there’s a reasonable path for the total to go over.

Jim's Play: 407. Texas Tech/Arizona State OVER

This rivalry always brings energy. TCU leads the all-time series 59–54–7. For this season, both Baylor and TCU come in at 4-2. The betting market has TCU as a 3-point favorite, and the over/under is in the 65.5 range (66.5 in some books).

What supports the “over” case is that both offenses have shown they can put up points, and both defenses have vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Baylor is averaging 36.3 points per game offensively, though their defense gives up 29.7 points per game. TCU’s offense is averaging about 35.3 PPG, while their defense concedes around 24.7 PPG. That suggests both sides are capable of putting up moderate output, making a high-scoring game plausible.

Baylor’s quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been one of their consistent weapons. In their recent win vs. Kansas State, he threw for 345 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Baylor’s passing offense is a key part of their identity and their ability to stretch defenses. On the ground, Bryson Washington has chipped in, but Baylor’s strength leans toward getting chunk plays through the air. Also, Baylor’s defense tends to struggle in stopping big plays in the pass game — that opens the door for TCU to hit quick strikes.

On TCU’s side, quarterback Josh Hoover is capable of pushing tempo and making big throws. Baylor’s defensive metrics in pass defense are among the weaker spots, making them susceptible to explosive gains. Also, Baylor ranks low in run-defense metrics (for example, in defensive EPA per rush), so if TCU leans on a balanced attack, they could get enough yardage on the ground to force Baylor’s defense to stay honest.

Another angle: Baylor has a strong track record in “overs” recently. The total has gone over in 12 of Baylor’s last 16 games. And in Big 12 play, Baylor’s games often produce more points than expected. 

Given the matchup, I see Baylor and TCU trading blows. Each team has the ability to drive into the red zone and find ways to score, especially if there are defensive breakdowns or big plays allowed. 

Jim's Play: 385. Baylor/TCU OVER 

Thursday night features a Week 6 NFL showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals that has all the makings of an overperforming divisional game. 

The offenses of these two clubs have been trending in the right direction heading into the game. Aaron Rodgers has hit a groove for the Steelers by utilizing timing routes with shallow reads to extend plays. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth have established themselves as dynamic red-zone threats and Pittsburgh’s offensive line has managed to give Rodgers enough time to do his thing. The Bengals’ offense, on the other hand, has begun to come around for Joe Flacco. He and Ja’Marr Chase are developing rapport in the passing game and Cincinnati has also opened up the playbook to take more deep shots in the passing game after they were a non-factor to start the year.

The defenses of these two squads have not looked great. Pittsburgh’s secondary has not been great at defending the big play and Cincinnati has one of the worst red-zone stop rates in the league. A big-play passing game from either of these offenses combined with a lack of top-tier playmaking in the secondary from the other means there should be multiple scoring drives from each side. Early points on both sides’ opening possessions should set the tone for the over to hit as well.

The total is in the mid-40s and both of these teams have the offense and big-play ability to drive the score over that. Neither defense looks like it will be the kind to force a low-scoring affair and Rodgers and Flacco are both capable of stretching defenses vertically. This game is far more likely to go back-and-forth rather than being a slugfest. 

Buffalo arrives on a strong 4-1 record, but that came to an abrupt end last week as the Bills were stunned at home by the New England Patriots. The Bills’ defense is without a couple of key players right now, safety Damar Hamlin and defensive tackle T.J. Sanders are on IR and linebacker Matt Milano is also out. That hurts them in depth both in the secondary and up front, especially when it comes to trying to slow down dual threats.  Buffalo ranks 9th in defense, 2nd in rush but 29th in pass. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen is a dangerous player both with his arm and his legs; he will try to push the Falcons’ discipline.

But Atlanta does have a few things going for it. First, the Falcons’ pass defense has quietly been one of the better units in the league this season.  The Falcons have the top ranked defense in the NFL, 16th in rush and 1st in pass (135 yards per game). They may have more trouble with Buffalo’s tight ends (Dalton Kincaid, in particular), but if they force contested throws or push the Bills off schedule, that could limit the scoring. On offense, rookie Bijan Robinson gives Atlanta a versatile runner who can push what could be a somewhat depleted Buffalo run defense.  And with the Bills already ranked 29th in rush defense it could be a big day for Robinson. The Falcons also get an extra week of preparation thanks to their bye, which should help their game plan and recovery. 

The line is around Bills -4.5 in many places. Not a ton of breathing room there. If Atlanta can establish a balanced attack - lean on Robinson, make enough plays through the air, and force some Buffalo turnovers - they don’t need to win this outright to cover. If Josh Allen is pressured or forced into mistakes, Buffalo could also be capped in how much they can cover for.

All of that said, I like the Falcons to keep this one within a field goal, potentially even flip the script late with a shot at the straight-up win against a poor Bills rush defense. 

Jim's Play: 276. OVER

Cincinnati heads into Lambeau Field reeling. They’re 2–3, riding a three-game losing streak, and just this week traded for Joe Flacco and made him their starting quarterback. The move signals desperation,  their offense has lacked rhythm, and they’ve turned the ball over at key moments. The Bengals’ defense hasn’t been much help either, giving up a lot of yards and points in recent weeks.

Green Bay, by contrast, enters 2-1-1 and is coming off a bye. Jordan Love has shown flashes of growth, and the Packers’ offense has a nice balance,  they can move the ball through the air and on the ground,  which puts pressure on Cincinnati to match pace. Even missing Christian Watson hurts their receiving corps, but they still have enough weapons to stress defenses.

Given how weak Cincinnati’s defense has looked and how much the new Flacco-led offense may lean on passing (trying to play catch-up), I expect this game to open up. Green Bay will likely score efficiently, and Cincinnati should push back enough to force Green Bay to stay aggressive.  If both teams hit on explosive plays, this could exceed expectations.

Jim's Play: 271. Bengals/Packers OVER

The LA Chargers make the long East Coast trip to face the Miami Dolphins here on Sunday.   The total for this contest is 43.5, and it’s a low number for a reason. Both sides are coming into this game with incentive to think this will be grind-it-out rather than smash-it-out.

On offense, the Chargers’ line is in tatters. If they can’t protect Herbert, they’ll probably run more, and their run game is probably worse than your typical Chargers team as well, after losing Omarion Hampton to IR earlier in the week. The run/pass balance gets all screwed up in predictable ways. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense is very streaky. They have been unable to put together multi-drive scoring drives, although this has partly been due to their D. But again, this has seemed to be more an issue of precision and talent rather than pure talent. When both offenses are capable of inexplicable stretches of potency that change the whole tenor of the game, it makes it more of a concern for either team to crack the whip in this game. Add that to the fact that neither line is particularly strong, and you could easily see a game that plays like a drag with long drives for the most part, more missed opportunities for each side to do much of anything, and limited explosiveness from either offense. In fact, I think Miami’s D is good enough to force a fair number of those three and outs if they play to form, and at least from a Chargers perspective, they’re not leaving much room for me to see this game “exploding.”

I look for this game to go under the total here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 263. Chargers / Dolphins UNDER

The Colts’ attack has been one of the sharper units through 2025. They’ve been especially crisp on early downs, building into big chains and making defenses have to remain honest. (The Colts are the No. 1 team in first and second down success rate.) Plus, there’s a balance on play-calling: a passing game that can stretch the field plus enough rushing ability to keep defenses off balance. The offensive line has been sturdy, giving the QB a clean pocket more often than not.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have been middling on offense. They haven’t been explosive in the yardage game and are facing an uncertainty at quarterback: Kyler Murray is questionable with a foot injury, and the team is activating backup options. Also, James Conner will miss the rest of the season (after surgery), which further depletes the Cardinals’ depth at running back. Defensively, Arizona has had stretches of resistance, but the Colts’ ability to mix tempo and play types may pressure the secondary and linebacking corps.

Considering the Colts have a short passing game that can score in bunches and the Cardinals will likely be forced into high-risk, high-reward plays to stay in the game, this feels like it’s a shootout in the making. If Arizona is forced into passing situations, this opens up opportunities for big plays and turnovers. Furthermore, the question marks at QB for Arizona could lead to more aggressive play-calling, which tends to lead to more offense but can backfire.

Jim's Play: 255. Cardinals/Colts OVER

This feels like one of those games where the “how” might matter more than the “who.” The Cowboys come in at 2-2-1, while Carolina is 2-3. Dallas is favored by about 3 points, and the total is hovering around 49.5.

Dallas’ offense has been rolling, Dak Prescott is efficient, spreading the ball around, and Javonte Williams is doing damage on the ground. The Panthers, meanwhile, showed a glimpse of what they can do when their run game is humming: Rico Dowdle exploded for 206 yards last week, handing them a big boost. That performance also gives them momentum and confidence heading into this tilt, especially against a Dallas defense that’s had major issues.

Carolina’s defensive numbers have been shaky, particularly against the pass. They rank among the worst units in yardage allowed. If Dallas can keep their balance and avoid going one-dimensional, I expect they’ll be able to pick apart the Panthers’ back end. On the other side, if Carolina leans heavy on Dowdle and keeps the chains moving, they might make a game of it.

Something else to watch: penalties and turnovers. Dallas has had bouts of sloppiness in that regard, and Carolina plays with more discipline in that area. If Dallas lets that seep into this game, it could bite them.

Jim's Play: 261. Cowboys/Panthers OVER 

Notre Dame’s starter is C.J. Carr, a freshman who’s shown flashes in limited action. Through his appearances, he’s thrown for 221 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He also adds some mobility, though his rushing contributions have been modest so far. (In his first start vs. Miami, he completed 19 of 30 passes for 221 yards and 2 scores.)

For NC State, C.J. Bailey is under center. So far in 2025, Bailey has produced 1,323 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He’s been a steady presence in the pocket, spreading the ball around and managing pressure well.

Because both QBs can stretch the field and their offenses have enough firepower, I expect this one to be open. Notre Dame will try to take advantage of NC State’s secondary, while NC State will push tempo and challenge coverages. Defenses on both sides have shown vulnerabilities, and with two capable offenses, this game has the ingredients to push over.

Jim's Play: 195. Notre Dame / NC State OVER 

Both teams have struggled to find consistent offensive rhythm this season, which sets up a defensive-minded game. UCLA comes in averaging around 344 total yards per game, split between roughly 190 passing yards and 150 rushing yards. The Bruins have relied heavily on their ground game but have lacked explosive plays through the air. Quarterback Ethan Garbers has shown flashes of efficiency, but the offense tends to stall on third downs and in the red zone. Defensively, UCLA has held opponents to under 21 points per game, with a front seven that’s been solid against the run.

Michigan State hasn’t fared much better offensively, averaging just over 20 points per game. Quarterback Aidan Chiles, a young dual-threat transfer from Oregon State, has accounted for over 1,000 total yards and nine touchdowns but has faced frequent pressure behind an inconsistent offensive line. The Spartans’ defense, however, has quietly improved, ranking among the top half of the Big Ten in yards allowed and limiting opponents to about 330 yards per game.

Both teams rely on ball control and defensive stops, and neither offense is built to play catch-up. Expect long possessions, heavy rushing attacks, and a low number of explosive plays. Unless one side breaks a big special teams play or forces multiple turnovers, points should be hard to come by.

Jim's Play: 147. UCLA/Michigan State UNDER 

Philadelphia enters at 4-1, sitting atop the NFC East. The Eagles have been reliable in scoring, they average 25.7 points per game, ranking 8th in the league in that category. Their defense has been solid too, allowing about 21.0 points per game. On offense, they’re running a balanced scheme, though their aerial attack has struggled at times, they average just 146.7 passing yards per game, placing them near the bottom in that metric. Meanwhile, their rushing attack is more middle of the pack, at 122.0 yards per game with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley carrying the load of rushing. Their offense tends to be methodical, favoring sustained drives over rapid scoring bursts.

New York has had a rough start. The Giants are 1-3, placing them 4th in the NFC East. They’ve scored just 73 points total (about 18.3 per game, which ranks 28th in the league) while conceding 101 points (25.3 per game).  Jaxson Dart took over at QB last week and after a nifty start to the game, the offense sputtered for the remaining three quarters with Dart turning the ball over three times. They should get  RB Tyrone Tracy back this week in the backfield  after he missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury.  This will share the backfield workload and give them more options on offense.   Offensively, they’ve lacked consistency, especially in the passing game where protection and execution have faltered under pressure. Defensively, they’ve been vulnerable against the run and have struggled to get off the field on third downs.

When you put it all together, this game feels like it’s tipped toward a slower pace. The Eagles prefer to control tempo, chew up clock, and force opponents to keep pace. The Giants simply don’t have the offense to match shot for shot, especially under pressure. Also, with the short week, I expect fewer explosive plays and more conservative play-calling from both sides.

Jim's Play: 105. Eagles/Giants UNDER 

Kansas City sits at 2-2 on the year and is looking to get back on track after a bit of a slow start on offense. Patrick Mahomes is already at nearly 1,000 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception on the year, and when this offense is firing on all cylinders it can put up a ton of points. The Chiefs are averaging over 30 points in their two wins on the season and their quick-strike ability with Travis Kelce and wideout Xavier Worthy make them a threat on every drive. Defensively the Chiefs have not been able to slow down high powered passing attacks and given up multiple big plays through the air over the last few weeks.

Jacksonville is sitting at 3-1 this season, as Trevor Lawrence has continued to play well and lead an offensive attack that is extremely balanced. Lawrence is at 850+ yards with five touchdowns on the year, and with Travis Etienne running well they have maintained solid balance on offense. The offensive line has been good so far and allowed Lawrence to have time to push the ball downfield to Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk. Jacksonville’s tempo can also work well to keep up with teams including Kansas City when it clicks.

The two offenses line up well to take advantage of their respective defenses, as the Chiefs’ secondary have been prone to big plays and Jacksonville’s defense can be opportunistic but has also been vulnerable to playmakers at the quarterback position. Both teams can put up points in bunches and this has all the makings of a shootout under the lights on Monday night.

Look for multiple scoring drives, a few quick strikes, and both quarterbacks to eclipse 250 yards through the air. My pick: Over. 

Jim's Play: 485. Chiefs / Jaguars OVER 

Buffalo enters this game riding a wave of offensive success. The Bills are averaging just over 450 yards per game and rank in the top ten in terms of total offense. Josh Allen has been effective in the passing game spreading the ball to his playmakers, while running back James Cook has kept things balanced on the ground. Buffalo is averaging 34 points per game and their efficiency on third down has enabled them to both drive for long stretches as well as get red zone production when they need it.

New England has also been better offensively than many anticipated. The Patriots are averaging in the 23 to 25 point range and have found a good mix of the run game with play-action passing. New England’s defense has remained stout against the run as they have given up under 80 yards per game, but they have struggled at times to defend the big play through the air, something that could open up against Allen and Buffalo’s deep threat weapons.

Typically, when these two teams play there is a rise in scoring. Buffalo’s offensive tempo has often forced opponents to open up the playbook and New England’s ability to sustain drives on third down will enable them to chime in on the scoreboard. The playmakers on both sides of this ball have the ability to create explosive plays and scoring opportunities on short fields.

With both teams likely capable of pushing past the 30 point threshold, this game has all the potential to be a high-scoring affair.

Jim's Play: 483. Patriots / Bills OVER

Tampa Bay has had an offense that’s played at a higher level than I expected. Baker Mayfield has already passed the 900-yard mark and has eight touchdowns. The passing game has worked at all levels with some quick game and some vertical shots. Rachaad White has made strides in the run game to open up the offense and sell play action. And the Buccaneers have been good on offense after the catch to turn short passes into chunk plays to move the chains and get into scoring position.

Seattle has also proven it can keep up with a gun-slinging offense. Sam Darnold has also passed the 900-yard mark, and he’s also at five passing touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III is keeping the Seahawks from being one-dimensional on offense. Seattle’s offense is averaging almost 30 points and more than 330 yards per game. Darnold has been good at spreading the ball around to Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba when he’s had time in the pocket. It leaves Seattle with a variety of weapons to score.

Defensively, both these teams have struggled to slow down opposing offenses, too. Tampa Bay’s secondary has allowed some explosive plays in its last few games. Seattle hasn’t been much better as its defense has shown an inability to slow down big plays and mobile quarterbacks. When you have two offenses that can score quickly and two defenses that don’t look particularly stout, you have a game that sets up to be very back and forth with early scores.

Mayfield and Darnold should both have good games throwing downfield. The tempo of the game should also support the over. My pick: expect a lot of offense here,  it goes over.

Jim's Play: 477. Buccaneers/Seahawks OVER

Head coach John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens have to make a huge adjustment this Sunday. Quarterback Lamar Jackson was placed on injured reserve, which means the team is on pace to have a tough time scoring points.  Jackson’s playmaking ability will be tough to replicate. The Ravens have been pedestrian in the passing game and are averaging just 205 passing yards per game. Running back Derrick Henry is excellent, but he can’t completely replace the damage that Jackson could cause on the ground.  Call me a cynic, but Jackson not being on the field means Baltimore is leaning into dink-and-dunk passing, running the ball frequently, and likely playing low-scoring games. Look, I think Houston has been just as bad on offense. It just hasn’t been as visible.   

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has dealt with a patchwork offensive line and has taken way too many sacks. The Texans are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league and are averaging about 13 points per game. Houston has not converted third downs nearly enough, which limits explosive scoring drives and forces it to play on the back foot. Houston has a better defense than we’re used to seeing, and that will help with the under for sure.

The two teams are better against the spread because they don’t normally give their offenses as many chances in games. Baltimore has a top-five defense, which means Houston will be on its heels a majority of the game. The Texans also have a stout front seven, so one-dimensional Baltimore should fare well. When you mix in the nature of these teams and the need for both to rely on conservative play-calling and strong defense, you get a game that is a lower-scoring matchup where field position is more important. I will take the under here. 

Jim's Play: 473. Texans/Ravens UNDER 

Westnern Kentucky (WKU) comes in at 4-1, 2-0 in Conference USA,  already their best start in recent memory. Offensively, they’re rolling with quarterback Maverick McIvor at the helm. McIvor currently ranks first in FBS with 1,474 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. WKU runs an Air Raid scheme that facilitates volume and forces defenses to keep up with pace and tempo. Delaware is 3-1, 1-0 in conference play. For a program that is transitioning from FCS to FBS in 2025, they’ve been a surprise in many people’s eyes. Delaware’s quarterback Nick Minicucci has showed dual-threat capability and has been able to contribute through the air and on the ground. The ground game has flourished and been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Hens.

Defensively, the matchup becomes more intriguing. WKU operates out of a base 3–3–5 scheme in an attempt to stay flexible and prevent big plays. The Hilltoppers have been able to stifle explosive throws, and have made offenses earn their yards. Delaware is a work in progress with FBS speed, and will likely be tested by the WKU passing volume. The Hilltoppers have more practice in chucking it at all levels, and if Delaware is uncovered or has a miscommunication, WKU can make a big play. Ultimately, in this game, I think home field favors Delaware and the crowd will provide some electricity for them. But the experience of WKU, the depth at receiver and the offensive identity will win the day. If McIvor can find a rhythm, it can become a second-half runaway. This game should have plenty of offense tonight. I'm taking the OVER. 

Jim's Play: 307. Western Kentucky / Delaware OVER 

This is a game that projects more of a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair than a high-scoring one. The 49ers are a banged-up team right now. Brock Purdy’s out with a toe injury and Mac Jones will be making his first start at quarterback for San Francisco. The 49ers will also be without receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings along with tight end George Kittle, who is still on IR. All three are very effective weapons for the 49ers and they will sorely be missed in their ability to make big plays or just move the chains on long drives. San Francisco has also had a non-existent run game on several occasions this year, where they have had a hard time finding open field.

Los Angeles is a solid defensive team early in the season. They put pressure on the quarterback and do a good job of avoiding chunk plays. Quarterbacks can have success against the Rams through the air, but their front seven can often force teams into three-and-outs or short drives early in games, something that plays into a lower total.

I just do not see much offensive firepower from the 49ers with the injuries they have in their passing game and a capable, bend-but-don’t-break Rams defense, so I do not see this game getting out of hand in either direction, especially early on. My pick is under. 

Jim's Play: 301. 49ers/Rams UNDER

At 2-1, Cincinnati has shown spurts on offense but also done some self-sabotage on defense. They’ve had 205 total plays so far, and we’re at about 1,079 total yards in three games, averaging 5.3 yards per play. Points allowed has been an issue for the Bengals, at 91 total and 30.3 per game. Cincinnati’s offense has been surprisingly balanced considering their quarterback situation, and they have some playmakers in the passing game even if they’re working some new wrinkles. The Bengals have the 25 ranked defense, allowing 351 yards per game. 

Denver is 1-2 but can claim a couple of close losses. They average 302 total yards per game and have some depth in their rushing attack that can make defenses pay, as they have 129 rushing yards per game to rank in the upper half of the league. The passing game is still finding its way to an efficient output at 173 passing yards per game. Bo Nix has been decently efficient in spots, while J.K. Dobbins does his damage on the ground to keep plays alive. Dobbins ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing (5th in the AFC). 

The reason I lean towards the over here is both offenses can push the pace and both defenses still have holes. Cincinnati has given up a ton of points and haven’t found a way to make stops consistently, which means Denver doesn’t need to be perfect to get into the end zone. Denver’s passing game hasn’t been great enough to put points on the board with a significant margin, but they have shown flashes, and they do have a good run game. Also, when either of these teams have played, the defenses can fold at times and open the door to a larger point total, and momentum swings also give the impression that this game could have some big swings.

This is the kind of game that has the potential to be a track meet between offenses. I’m taking the over. 

Jim's Play: 279. Bengals/Broncos OVER 

On Sunday, two offenses in their infancy will clash in what figures to be a shootout. Chicago has been inconsistent through three weeks but their offense has the ability to move the ball with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams (715 passing yards in 3 games) and playmakers like D’Andre Swift (149 rushing yards) in the backfield. Swift has been inconsistent as well but Chicago has been able to move the ball (1,161 total yards) and average more than 20 points per game. Chicago’s defense has been a big problem, allowing 93 points (31 per game) which is in the bottom three in the league. Their injury luck hasn’t been the best, with cornerback Jaylon Johnson and lineman Kiran Amegadije both listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.

Las Vegas is 1-2 as well but they’ve been a much more efficient offense, putting up 1,053 yards to Chicago’s 1,161. Geno Smith has been the steady veteran passer, throwing for 831 yards while Ashton Jeanty has been a threat to balance the ground attack (144 rushing yards). The pass catchers have also emerged with Jakobi Meyers at 228 yards and Tre Tucker finally making his mark last week with 145 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Raiders have playmakers on defense like Maxx Crosby but they’ve also had issues against the pass and that’s allowed opponents to stay in games.

There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball in this one and both defenses have been generous with yards and points. The elements for a shootout in the desert are present. Chicago has an offense that can make chunk plays while Las Vegas has the explosiveness to get into the end zone quickly through the air. If the Bears defense is as porous as it has been and the Raiders can use their young weapons to score, there should be more than enough chances to cash the over on this line.

Jim's Play: 271. Bears/Raiders OVER (NFL  Total of the Month)

This Jacksonville-San Francisco matchup has some potential to be a low-scoring game. The 2-1 Jaguars have some balance; they average about 356 yards per game total, with 141.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them among the better rushing attacks in the league. Their offense also doesn’t force you to throw the ball every single drive. You can methodically move the ball downfield in the Jaguars’ offense. (Jacksonville has also been somewhat fortunate to turn the ball over at times, which obviously kills drives.)

On the other side, San Francisco is much more pass-oriented. They average 361 yards per game, but 89.7 of those are on the ground. That imbalance suggests they’ll be more likely to try and move the ball via the pass, with an emphasis on controlling tempo and the clock in the passing game. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, while injuries and offensive line play have limited their ability to generate ground production. At the same time, San Francisco’s defense has shown it can win in the trenches, especially against the run. Even without Nick Bosa for the year, this defense will still test San Francisco’s passing attack, and they have shown some good fundamentals.

With Jacksonville’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and limit tempo, as well as San Francisco’s struggles to run the ball effectively, I expect to see more stalled drives and fewer explosive plays, with the defenses keeping the ball under control. Throw in some weather and game-management issues at the end of the game, and this one has the look of an under.

Jim's Play: 267. Jags/49ers UNDER 

Indianapolis comes into this game riding high on a 3-0 start to the season. The Colts are first in the NFL in total offense, averaging just under 418.7 yards per game and 34.3 points per game. They are also first in the league with rushing, gaining just under 153 yards per game on the ground. Daniel Jones has completed over 66% of his passes and the Colts’ defense has only given up a total of 56 points, just under 18.7 per game.

Los Angeles Rams are 2-1 on the year but have shown they can move the ball on offense as well. The Rams are averaging just under 363.7 yards per game on offense and have 1965 yards combined in the air and on the ground so far on the year. Matthew Stafford has 739 yards through the air on the year and Kyren Williams has 226 yards rushing on the ground. On defense, the Rams have given up a total of 61 points so far this year, an average of just under 20.3 points per game.

On paper, this has the potential to be a shootout between these two teams. The Colts can score quickly, and the Rams have enough offense to put points on the board in return. It doesn’t appear that either team has the defense to shut down their opponent for 60 minutes at a time either. This is a matchup between two high-powered offenses, so I like this one to go over the total.

Jim's Play: 269. Colts/Rams OVER 

I have a lean to the under in this one. Los Angeles is on a roll. Herbert is putting up efficient numbers in the passing game, already with 860 yards through three games. The Chargers are getting the job done on third down often enough to keep their drives alive, and they have a league-average rushing attack that picks up about 92 yards per game on the ground. That helps Los Angeles control the clock and keep a balanced attack. Defensively, the Chargers have also kept their opponent out of rhythm in stretches.

Meanwhile, the Giants are 0-3 and not been able to get much going on offense. Wilson has completed only about 59 percent of his passes for 778 yards so far. 

The Giants are benching Wilson and bringing in their rookie Jaxson Dart. They don’t have much of a running game (71 yards per game), so the Giants can’t afford to play keep-away and have to rely on long drives. They’re getting some work done on defense, but have also given up 83 points (27.7 ppg). They’ve done that in spurts, however, and I don’t think the Chargers offense will put them on their heels and give up many big plays. So with two offenses that lack big-play threats right now (particularly the Giants), and with the Giants offense having shown an inability to finish drives, I don’t see this game as a shootout. My play under the total.  With Dart starting you know the Giants are not going to put to much on his shoulders. They will go to a shorter passing attack and running the ball. The Under looks like the play here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 265. Chargers/Giants UNDER 

These two meet for the Kuter Trophy, a trophy given to the winner of a renewed rivalry Air Force leads 14-8-1. The matchup itself projects to be an up tempo, attack friendly game. Air Force has looked explosive on offense, averaging around 38.7 points per game in spite of a shaky defense. They have generated just over 1,385 yards in three games and their offense as a whole is averaging 6.32 yards per play. Hawaii’s opponents, meanwhile, have averaged nearly 37 points per contest against the Falcons, which is an indicator games tend to be a little loose and high scoring.

Hawaii comes in at 3-2 and has shown some inconsistency but their offensive profile screams volatility. Their average yardage figures are middling but their passing leaders Luke Weaver and Pofele Ashlock both have strong potential to put up large chunks of yardage in short order. Their defense is middle of the pack in points allowed, meaning they will be vulnerable if opposing offenses get in a groove.

What points toward the over is Air Force’s defense struggling to defend the big play, especially in the run game, which opens avenues for Hawaii to score in bursts. Turnovers have been an issue on both sides of the ball, which gives extra possessions that have a tendency to lead to inflated scoring. If Air Force plays to its offense early and Hawaii does the same in response this becomes a back and forth contest. In a game with shaky defenses and playmakers on both sides the over looks like the right call.

Jim's Play: 149. Hawaii/Air Force OVER 

The Lions and Ravens both enter this game at 1-1, each coming off impressive Week 2 wins. Detroit destroyed the Bears 52-21, showing they can put up big numbers, while Baltimore tore through Cleveland 41-17. Those outputs suggest both offenses are working well and capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Baltimore, especially with Lamar Jackson healthy, tends to gamble in primetime, and Detroit’s Jared Goff has been sharp, spreading the ball and producing big plays. With both quarterbacks having confidence and weapons around them, this points toward a game with multiple scoring drives rather than a defensive slog.

There are factors that push toward a higher scoring game. Baltimore’s defense is dealing with injuries: defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike is ruled out, as are linebackers like Kyle Van Noy. That weakens their ability to generate interior push and contain both the run and quick screens or slants. Detroit’s offense showed in Week 2 that when given space and time, they’ll exploit mismatches in coverage. Meanwhile the Lions have some injured defensive pieces too, but less so than the Ravens in terms of impact defenders. The injury gap, especially on Baltimore’s front, could open lanes for Detroit’s run game and play action.

Given how both clubs have performed so far, including big yardage totals and point outputs, the high over/under number feels reachable. Big plays, turnovers, and perhaps even a few defensive lapses can all contribute to pushing the total past the line.

I expect this to be a lively primetime clash, with back-and-forth scoring.

Jim's Play: 479. Lions/Ravens OVER

Chicago comes into this game with a 0-2 record and has already given up 73 points and nearly 700 yards of total offense in their last five quarters. The Bears’ defense is clearly shorthanded (injuries in the secondary and at linebacker have left them looking thin) and their pass rush has been a bit hit or miss so far. The Cowboys are also 1-1 but have shown they have the ability to put up a bunch of points in a hurry when their playmakers are making plays, and they are very much playmaker-dependent in the passing game. Dallas is averaging right around 30.0 points scored and 30.5 points allowed per game in this early season going, so most of their games are already playing out as shootouts. The Bears, by contrast, just have not found a lot of offensive flow yet. But when a team is put in a position where their opponent is just chucking the ball downfield against a depleted Chicago secondary, it usually has to abandon the conservative and just try to match those scores.

On paper, the total for this game is sitting around 50.5 points and for good reason. The Cowboys are going to have to try to do damage with their big playmakers, as there will be a lot of separation on the outside for those receivers against a thin secondary, and the Bears will be forced to make drives to keep pace in a game where it’s likely they will get scored on in bunches, giving offenses a lot of chances to move the ball. Add in special teams and turnover-generated swings (i.e. short fields and quick scores), and it’s not crazy to expect the fireworks on both sides to outpace the possibility of a grindy, slog-fest.

Overall, I like the Over on this one. Both teams are likely going to score on multiple drives, there are probably going to be some big plays, and the overall ability to rack up points in bunches should hit north of 50.5. 

Jim's Play: 473. Cowboys/Bears OVER 

Green Bay Packers 2-0 come into today's contest. Packers look the part so far, with offense and defense rolling to an early lead. The Packers have momentum but are dealing with injuries to key pass-catchers: wide receiver Jayden Reed is on IR after double surgery, and tight end Tucker Kraft suffered an injury in practice but is still expected to play. These absences hurt their passing attack, taking away explosive playmakers. The Browns are searching for their identity on offense as they come into today's game 0-2. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been throwing interceptions and looked anything but mobile (or safe) under pressure. But that also makes Cleveland more reliant on their run game, and trying to control the clock to keep Green Bay from getting into offensive bursts. Cleveland’s run game has shown flashes with rookie Quinshon Judkins, and these are games where the grind-it-out, ball-control approach usually wins over a shoot-out.

Green Bay will work harder for yards on offense, and without Reed and a depleted passing game, their offense may not be quite as explosive. Plus, Cleveland’s front, led by Myles Garrett, is a good defense against the pass when it comes to throwing off timing and making life tough on quarterbacks. In fact, the Browns have the top rated defense thus far. They should also keep Green Bay predictable in many situations, bunching the field together, and keeping scoring to a minimum.

Cleveland’s defense allows the fewest yards per attempt, ranking high in stopping the run, and playing disciplined coverage with few explosive plays given up. They kept Baltimore star Derrek Henry to under 30 yards rushing. And if Cleveland doesn’t have the formula to win, they may be able to at least slow the game down.

Add it all up and it’s a recipe for expecting a low-scoring game. If Cleveland can stay within reach and not get blown out, they cover. If both defenses play like they have so far, the total should be hard to reach.

Jim's Play: Take: 458. Packers/Browns UNDER

Week 3 is chock full of good early-season matchups, but the Sunday clash between the Los Angeles Rams and defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles has the feel of a must-see game. Both teams are 2-0, and both look like good bets to be in the postseason mix at season’s end. Los Angeles has made a big statement with its balanced attack, scoring in explosive ways on offense and playing stout and resilient on defense. The Eagles are a run-heavy team built around star rusher Saquon Barkley, and are looking to control the game on the ground.

Injury-wise, Philadelphia has the advantage in this matchup. The Rams will be without guard Steve Avila and defensive end Braden Fiske, but all of their offensive weapons are available, including Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua. The Eagles will welcome back tight end Dallas Goedert from the IR, but continue to be without rookie RB Will Shipley, and are potentially thin at the QB position. The rosters for both teams are very solid. However, Philadelphia has been vulnerable in its defensive backfield this season, and with Stafford’s ability to attack downfield and the supporting cast of weapons that he can throw to, the Rams are well equipped to take advantage of that weakness.

The line has the Eagles as a slight favorite, by approximately 3.5 points. The Rams should be able to keep this game close, though, with their big-play potential. Their ability to hit explosive plays in the passing game on the perimeter and attack vertically will be crucial in stretching the Eagles’ defense, and puts them in a great position to cover the spread, and even to pull the outright upset. 

As for the total, currently sitting at about 44.5, the under is the more attractive side of the bet. This could be a game where both teams establish their long, methodical drives, rather than putting up a lot of points in short order. If the Eagles are able to execute their run-heavy game plan and the Rams are able to mix some of their explosive potential with some sustained, low-risk possessions, this could be a lower-scoring affair.

The play here is for the Rams to cover the spread and the total to go under, in a likely close and physical contest between two playoff-bound teams.

Jim's Play: 461. Rams/Eagles UNDER 

The Steelers and Patriots will meet in Week 3 with both teams at 1–1, and all signs point to an explosive, high-scoring game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed 30+ points in both of their first two games, and their normally stingy defense has been prone to lapses to start the year. The Patriots have come on under a new identity with the Belichick era over. Their offense is more aggressive and more willing to push the ball downfield in the passing game. The new approach has led to more points, but it’s also put more pressure on their young, injury-prone secondary to keep up with explosive players downfield.

Pittsburgh still relies heavily on their playmakers in the passing game, and while their rushing attack has been underwhelming, the Steelers’ deep ball ability has forced defenses to play from behind and turn games into shootouts. New England’s offense is still predicated on ball control and balance, and the Patriots’ running game can set up play-action and quick passes as a result. However, without Bill Belichick and his defense-first approach dictating their game plan, the Patriots are also more than willing to trade touchdowns if they have to, and that makes the Over a viable play.

Oddsmakers have the line set at around 44.5 points, and based on how both of these defenses have played through two weeks, the number is not at all unreasonable. Pittsburgh’s defensive struggles on explosive plays in particular combined with New England’s up-tempo, aggressive attack makes the total very achievable.

Jim's Play: 463. Steelers/Patriots OVER 

Michigan (2-1) visits an undefeated Nebraska (3-0) for their Big Ten opener, and this one has the makings of a defensive struggle. Both teams come in with strong defensive resumes so far: Michigan is allowing under 15 points per game and Nebraska has also yet to give up many big scores. Nebraska’s defense has particularly impressed in limiting opponents’ aerial attacks and creating havoc in the back end. Michigan, meanwhile, hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game either, and their run-defense has held up well against various styles of attacks.

On offense, Nebraska is more explosive through the air, led by quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is completing a high percentage of his passes and has multiple receiving weapons. Michigan leans more on balance, with their rushing game led by Justice Haynes doing most of the heavy lifting. But even so, neither team has looked like a high-scoring juggernaut yet; Nebraska spreads the field but has had some drives stall inside the opponent’s 30, and Michigan tends to grind out yards without letting go of tempo too early.

With both defenses so far looking disciplined, and offenses still working out some kinks or running into resistance, the total (around 45.5-47.5 depending on sportsbook) looks ambitious. Given Nebraska’s home crowd, there will be moments of noise and pressure, especially for Michigan’s freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, that tends to hamper offensive flow, especially in tight Big Ten contests.

I expect a lower-scoring game that stays under the total.

Jim's Play: 367. Michigan/Nebraska UNDER 

Week 3 features a Bills team that enters at 2-0 and flying high while the Dolphins will look to get on the board for the first time in 2025 as they enter at 0-2. Buffalo has been solid on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen spearheading an offense that has found success in the running game and through the air with a vertical passing attack. Miami has the weapons to be explosive on offense despite the slow start, especially if Tua Tagovailoa can pick apart the Bills secondary with targets such as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It won’t be easy against a Bills team that knows a divisional loss won’t be acceptable on Thursday, but Miami has the offensive firepower to keep pace and attack quickly. Add both teams have playmakers that can take over games and it’s clear the line will move in the points department.

Miami will be shorthanded on defense with several starters out and a host of players questionable. That won’t deter Allen, who will look to take shots downfield against mismatched coverage while spreading the ball around to his playmakers. Buffalo’s defense will also be without some important pieces with injuries up front and in the secondary. If Miami can keep Tagovailoa upright long enough, the Dolphins should be able to move the ball and make big plays of their own. The game should have a quick pace as the offenses look to jump out early and then put points on the board, forcing the opposing team to play catch up.

Thursday’s divisional showdown should have some urgency, which makes it hard to believe either side will slow things down for long. This will be a fast-paced game full of big plays from the quarterbacks on both sides of the ball, making OVER the play here.

Jim's Play: 301. Dolphins/Bills OVER 

Two teams looking for answers will square off in a Week 2 Monday night contest when the Houston Texans host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Texans are aiming for redemption after a disappointing Week 1 loss, while the Bucs are coming in at 1-0 but have a couple of question marks on offense that could disrupt their production in this primetime matchup.

Houston is still going to be a little thin on offense, with Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios both out at wide receiver, and starting center Jake Andrews is also not going to be on the field, so that puts extra pressure on Nico Collins and the rest of the skill group. With the offensive line shuffling some around up front, the top priority for that unit will be to try to give C.J. Stroud some time against a Buccaneers defense that has a front seven that can get after quarterbacks.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. on the shelf and as a result, Mike Evans will be the clear primary option for Baker Mayfield’s passes, so it will be interesting to see if the defense will double him or play him one-on-one in coverage. Tristan Wirfs will not be protecting Mayfield’s blind side, as he is officially out, and some of the other names on the line are questionable to go, so this could be a critical issue in the battle of the trenches and if things break down against the Texans’ front, it may force Tampa Bay to lean on the ground game more or use short passes to move the chains.

Defensively, both sides will be looking to create big plays off of turnover opportunities and Houston will be in Mayfield’s face looking to force a mistake, while the Buccaneers will have to move the chains against a stout run defense and try to limit big plays from a Houston group that will be a little thin in the secondary and without Andrews at center.

This game looks to be on the lower scoring side with the offenses struggling right now. 

Jim's Play: 278. Bucs/Texans UNDER 

Los Angeles Rams enter the matchup with starting guards Steve Avila (doubtful) and Kevin Dotson (questionable/not at full health) on the injury report while Tennessee will be without rookie tackle J.C. Latham. The issues for both offenses start up front, as the Titans also have to break in rookie quarterback Cam Ward, which will take time.

Stafford still makes the Rams offense the better unit, but both he and Ward are bound to have some inconsistent days behind shaky lines against Titans defense that has enough talent to bring pressure at times.

There may not be too many big plays in the passing game and Ward will have to learn on the fly to find a rhythm, but a Rams defense that is stout enough to force quick throws will give the Titans signal-caller very little time to do so, also keeping drives from extending. Both the Rams and Titans also showed inefficiencies and inconsistency in their opening games. The Rams won in large part thanks to their defense and their efficiency, while the Titans offense couldn’t sustain any momentum. Rarely were there explosive plays from either team, and without those, teams will struggle to manufacture long drives in this one.

Expect this to be a physical game focused on ball control and field position where defenses and special teams will have a lot of impact. There will be punts aplenty and many more stalled drives in this one than fans might be used to, as both defenses will try to bend and not break. 

Jim's Play: 260. Rams/Titans UNDER 

The San Francisco 49ers suffered a couple of early injuries during their opener against the Seattle Seahawks but still walked away with a hard-fought victory. The Niners have to be concerned with starting quarterback Brock Purdy, who left the game with an injured toe and shoulder, tight end George Kittle is on injured reserve after a hamstring injury, and both Trent Williams and Jauan Jennings are questionable for Sunday. Mac Jones will start in Purdy’s place and will open up the offense a bit more for Christian McCaffrey and the run game while also utilizing shorter high-percentage throws to gain positive yardage on third downs.

The Saints started off Week 2 with a disappointing 20-13 loss against the Cardinals. The Saints were able to move the ball and did create opportunities within the red zone but just couldn’t finish. On defense, the Saints were the issues because they were giving up chunk plays after chunk plays, mainly on the ground. Moving the ball will be the name of the game for New Orleans in order to help out a Saints defense that has some major concerns against the run.

San Francisco is going to be in their base set more often than not, and they are going to use McCaffrey on early downs in order to dictate the tempo and help ease the pressure on Mac Jones. But for as much as San Francisco wants to run the ball, the Saints will be more than content to force Mac Jones into obvious passing downs. In order for New Orleans to have a chance to pull off the upset, they need to get their offense on track early and limit the game-changing penalties and negative plays.

Both offenses will be hard pressed to find the end zone here on Sunday. I'm taking the game to go under the total. 

Jim's Play: Take: 267. 49ers/Saints UNDER 

The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams clash Sunday, September 7, 2025, in a season opener that shapes up more like a defensive struggle than a shootout. Oddsmakers opened the total in the low-to-mid 40s, and for good reason. Both teams come in with questions on offense and check pluses on the defensive side of the ball that point directly toward the Under.

The injury report for Houston is lengthy. Running back Joe Mixon is out at least the first four games, and wideout Christian Kirk (hamstring) will also miss time. That takes away big-play weapons and leaves the Texans with unproven options on offense. Without consistent balance, the Texans will likely lean on the conservative side of the playbook against a Rams front built to pressure the quarterback.

Los Angeles appears ready to take a wait-and-see approach behind Matthew Stafford, but with the veteran’s recent back issues, look for the Rams to lean on short passing and the clock. Their defense should be able to contain Houston’s patchwork attack and dictate a slower pace of play.

If you’re looking for a trend in this game, look no further than both offenses being heavily limited and each defense being well-positioned to control the game’s tempo. The total has real value on the Under, and a score somewhere in the low to mid 30's seems reasonable. 

Jim's Play: 477. Texans/Rams UNDER 

The Steelers open the season on the road against the Jets and kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. Pittsburgh has added a pair of offensive weapons this offseason with veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wideout D.K. Metcalf. While the big plays and ceiling of the group are sky-high, the timing and productivity for the offense may take a few weeks to come around. The team had the 25th-ranked defense by EPA last season, and it has already upgraded that group in free agency with Landon Collins and Daylon Mack. Additionally, while the rushing attack could be one of the best in the league, expect Pittsburgh to rely on it early in the season as they get their new quarterback up to speed.

New York, after losing Rodgers to the Steelers this offseason, now has a new quarterback of its own in Justin Fields. But again, given the questions along the offensive line and a new system still getting up to speed, expect more dink-and-dunk than boom in the early goings. The Jets’ defense should continue to be the strength of the team, and at home for the opener, expect that unit to keep New York in games even if they don’t explode on offense like many expect this year.

With two conservative defenses and a lot of question marks on both offensive lines, the recipe is in place for a methodical, low-scoring game. Long drives, conservative game plans and key stops in the red zone should keep points off the board throughout.

Jim's Play: 455. Steelers/Jets UNDER

The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals kick off their 2025 seasons with an AFC North rivalry game on Sunday, Sept. 7 at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. Game time is 1 p.m. ET, the Bengals are 5.5-point favorites and the total is 47.5 points.

A classic AFC North rivalry, Browns-Bengals has rarely been a game with elite offense. Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a major upgrade in Cincinnati over the recent past, but the Bengals have lacked explosiveness in Week 1 under coach Zac Taylor. The history between these two teams is one of stout defenses and running the ball. I don’t see any reason why 2025 won’t follow the same pattern.

Quarterback Joe Flacco will make his starting debut for Cleveland, and the Browns are as close to a known quantity as any team in the league this season. Kevin Stefanski’s offense is built on ball control and efficiency - both positive factors when you consider this under looks to be inflated by the goal of projecting the new offenses in this game. The defenses should be able to limit turnovers and big-play ability, making for a slow start to the season.

Neither team is really built for high-scoring games. Cleveland averaged under 15 points per game last season and 4 of their final 5 games of 2024 were under the total. Cincinnati will score, but that divisional game, early-season rust, and a ball-control style from Cleveland could set the stage for a much lower-scoring affair than the number suggests.

I'm taking the UNDER here on Sunday as I epxect the defenses to dominate in this rivalry.

Jim's Play: 463. Bengals/Browns UNDER 

Week 2 of the 2025 college football season features an intriguing early-season nonconference meeting between James Madison and Louisville. The game kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday, September 5 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, and both teams will look to get off to a fast start in the month of September.

The Dukes are back for their third full season playing at the FBS level and after two impressive years in which they overachieved, James Madison will look to take the next step by becoming a consistent winner in the Sun Belt. The return of a veteran quarterback along with an offensive line that is completely intact will allow the Dukes to slow the game down, run the ball effectively, control possession and avoid giving Louisville’s offense short fields.

On the other hand, the Cardinals want to be a legitimate ACC contender this season and they return enough playmakers to be able to make it happen. Louisville’s main advantage lies on the outside, where they have both speed and the type of versatile quarterback who can create additional yardage with his feet. The defense will also play a key role in this matchup and how it’s able to contain a methodical and ball-control oriented James Madison offense that excels at execution on third downs will be paramount.

James Madison-Louisville will be a game of two different styles. The Cardinals will come out looking to establish their tempo, stretch the field and create explosive plays through the air while the Dukes will aim to grind out as many drives as possible and turn it into a four-quarter battle. If James Madison can avoid turnovers and run the ball early, the Cardinals won’t have the benefit of short fields and will be forced to sustain long, slow drives that could put the game within reach in the second half. But if Louisville’s offense clicks, its depth and talent advantage should tell.

I look to the Cardinals to be the team that dictates the early pace and with that take James Madison out of their ground and pound offense and force them more into the air which could lead to more turnovers.  I look for this game to go over the total. 

Jim's Play: 313. J.Madison/Louisville OVER 

The Cincinnati Bengals head to Landover, Maryland, for a Monday Night Football preseason matchup against the Washington Commanders on August 18, 2025. Both teams are looking to bounce back after opening preseason losses, and with national eyes on them, this game should offer an extended look at starters on both sides.

For Cincinnati, head coach Zac Taylor has hinted that Joe Burrow and the first-team offense will get more reps than usual, aiming to sharpen timing before the regular season. Rookie pass rusher Shemar Stewart has made headlines in camp with his energy and physicality, and he’ll look to translate that into game action. The Bengals are also evaluating depth at running back and wide receiver, where young talent is pushing for roster spots behind the established starters.

Washington enters this contest needing to clean things up after being outclassed in their preseason opener. The offensive line suffered a big blow when starter Lucas Niang was lost for the season, forcing quick adjustments. Rookie linebacker Kain Medrano showed flashes despite some early mistakes, and he could see more snaps as the Commanders test their defensive depth. Offensively, the quarterback rotation will again be in focus, as Washington continues to search for consistent execution.

With both teams likely to play startes extended time, I look for early scoring and this game to go over the Total. 

Jim's Play: 431. Bengals/commanders OVER   

TCU and North Carolina play on Monday, September 1, 2025, at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET. Bill Belichick makes his college coaching debut for the Tar Heels on Monday Night Football against a Sonny Dykes-led TCU team. The Horned Frogs return plenty of starters, especially on offense, while the Tar Heels are just one of four teams with fewer than 40 returning players. TCU opened as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under near 55.5.

Josh Hoover and most of the TCU starters from last year’s efficient offense are back, and that unit should be ready to pick up where it left off. Dykes is not a coach who overhauls his team from year to year, so we know the Frogs will be balanced on offense. TCU also returns a surprisingly good amount of production on defense, so this Horned Frog squad is not being completely discounted on that side of the ball either. On the other hand, the Tar Heels are a different story. UNC only has 38 returning players from last year and brings in about 70 newcomers to the roster, including transfer quarterback Gio Lopez from South Alabama. Belichick is a master defensive coordinator, but it will take time for this new staff to build a true identity with players that have no experience playing together. 

Belichick knows he can't get into a offensive shootout with TCU and he has been a master defensive planner. I look for Belichick to keep the scoring down in this game to give his club a shot at the win. 

Jim's Play: 233.TCU/North Carolina UNDER the Total