|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-27-20||Denny Hamlin v. Brad Keselowski -105||1-0||Loss||-105||15 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Brad Keselowski over Denny Hamlin* Denny Hamlin said himself that Las Vegas is "Really our Achilles Heel." Hamlin has no top fives in his last six races at this track. In his career, his average finish at Las Vegas is only 14th.
Brad Keselowski's record at Las Vegas is amazing. Keselowski hasn't finished outside the top 10 in his last 10 starts at Vegas. Keselowski has four top fives in his last six races here. Hamlin has no top fixes and only two top ten's in his last six starts at Vegas.
Earlier this year at Las Vegas, Hamlin finished 17th and just didn't have the speed he needed. Keselowski had a solid race and finished 7th.
I'll lay the very short price here.
Take Keselowski over Hamlin.
|09-12-20||Kurt Busch v. Clint Bowyer +115||0-1||Win||115||15 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Clint Bowyer over Kurt Busch* Clint Bowyer has said many times that he sees Richmond as one of his very best tracks. In general, Bowyer and Kurt Busch are pretty even teams, but it is surprising to see Bowyer as an underdog of this price against Busch at Richmond.
We are getting a nice plus money price on Bowyer despite the fact that he has beaten Busch four times in a row at Richmond.
These two start near the same spot on Saturday night. I think Bowyer has a better than 50% chance of finishing ahead of Busch, so I'll gladly take the plus money price.
Take Clint Bowyer over Kurt Busch.
|08-23-20||Ryan Blaney v. Jimmie Johnson -115||0-1||Win||100||15 h 13 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Jimmie Johnson over Ryan Blaney* Jimmie Johnson is neck and neck with William Byron and Erik Jones in the playoff standings. Johnson is at his best race track here and it is a great chance for him to try to put some room between him and those cars.
Johnson said after the race on Saturday that he needs to drive a clean race and not take so many chances that it could hurt them, because Sunday is a chance to get a bit of a lead on his competition.
Ryan Blaney has a terrible history at Dover. His average finish in 7 races here is 19.71. He has one top 10 in those 7 races. Johnson has five top 10's during that time.
Take Jimmie Johnson over Ryan Blaney.
|08-22-20||William Byron v. Clint Bowyer -125||0-1||Win||100||14 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Clint Bowyer over William Byron* Clint Bowyer has been excellent at Dover in his career. Bowyer has 16 top 10's at Dover in his career and he has four top 10 finishes in his last six races here. Bowyer is fighting hard in the points standings and he needs a good showing here.
William Byron has just one top ten in his four races at Dover. Byron has an average driver rating of just 80.7 at Dover in those four races, while Bowyer has a driver rating of 91.5 in his last six races at Dover.
Bowyer starts fourth here and track position could be a big key in a shorter race. Look for Bowyer to have a solid finish, and Byron is a question mark at this track.
Take Clint Bowyer over William Byron.
|08-22-20||Chase Elliott -125 v. Kyle Busch||0-1||Loss||-125||14 h 55 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Chase Elliot over Kyle Busch* Chase Elliot is coming off a win last weekend, and Elliot is going to one of his best tracks.
Elliot has six top five finishes in eight races at Dover where NASCAR will be racing on Saturday afternoon.
Importantly, Elliot starts on the pole for this short 311 mile race. He gets the best pit stall as well. That is a big plus for him.
Kyle Busch will start 22nd in this one. Busch has had a really tough season (for him), and in a race this short starting so far back could be a big problem. Busch hasn't had the speed Elliot has had on 1 and 1.5 mile tracks most of this year either.
Take Chase Elliot over Kyle Busch here.
|08-22-20||Jimmie Johnson -115 v. Aric Almirola||1-0||Win||100||13 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Jimmie Johnson over Aric Almirola* Jimmie Johnson has won 11 times at Dover. Johnson says this is his favorite track, and many would say it has been his best track. It's the last spot Johnson won a race as well.
Johnson has shown himself to be much better when NASCAR is running the 750 horsepower package this year compared to the 550 package. This race will be with the 750 horsepower package. Johnson has four top 10's in his last six races at Dover.
Aric Almirola had some nice results earlier this year, but he has been slumping of late. Almirola's successes were with the 550 horsepower package that will not be used this weekend as well. Almriola has zero top 10 finishes at Dover in his last five races here.
Johnson needs the points badly since he is on the bubble in the standings. I think he has a good race here.
Take Jimmie Johnson over Aric Almirola.