Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-23 | Blue Jays -121 v. Astros | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Houston Astros. When Kevin Gausman came to the Blue Jays after stops in Baltimore, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and San Francisco, his expectations for a title were the highest since he came into the league 10 years ago. And although he had one of his best seasons ever in 2022 (12 wins, a 3.35 ERA, and a league-leading 7.32 K:BB ratio), the veteran RHP was still sent packing after the first round of the post-season. We're just three starts into 2023, but the 32-year-old may finally be having the Cy Young-caliber campaign of which so many thought he was capable. And with a little help from his teammates, it may also mean a trip to the World Series. Over 20 innings, Gausman has a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 25 Ks and only three BBs. Start No. 4 will come against the champion Astros, who are not off to a great start, missing their leader Jose Altuve (thumb) and the dominant pitching they had last season. Gausman beat the 'Stros in his only start vs. them last season (7 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 0 BB). Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-23 | Twins +147 v. Yankees | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the New York Yankees. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has never won a Cy Young award -- he's finished second in the voting twice -- and if he wanted to send a message early on that this is his year, he couldn't have done it any better than he has so far. But despite a 3-0 record and an ERA well under two runs, the starter who's opposing him this afternoon actually has a better ERA, and pitches for a team with a better record. The Twins are no doubt thrilled that they traded AL batting champ Luis Arraez, and in exchange got 27-year-old ace RH Pablo Lopez, along with a couple of solid minor league players. His early season success notwithstanding, today is Lopez's chance to shine on the big stage against one of the game's best. And there's every reason to believe he'll pull it off as he is 1-0 with a sparkling 1.35 ERA in three starts so far. In his only previous start vs. the Yanks, Lopez threw six strong innings, allowing just one run on seven hits. Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight road games vs. teams with a RH starter. And the Yankees have gone 11-12 (minus 11.4 net games) in his last 23 daytime starts. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-15-23 | Angels -104 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels with Tyler Anderson over the Boston Red Sox and Nick Pivetta. 2022 was a breakout season for Anderson, as he made the All-Star team for the first time. The southpaw's ERA over 30 appearances (28 starts) for the Los Angeles Dodgers was 2.57. Still, the Dodgers allowed him to get away this past off-season, and sign with Angels. He's off to a decent start this season, as Anaheim has won both of his starts, including a 6-0 shutout of Oakland, and a 9-5 triumph over Toronto. Anderson comes into this day game with 2 extra days of rest following that game vs. the Blue Jays, while Pivetta is starting on regular rest. In his last 36 starts with an extra day or two of rest, Anderson's teams have gone 26-10. Even better, in his career starts vs. Boston, Anderson's ERA is 2.08, while Pivetta's ERA in his career starts vs. Anaheim is 4.91. Take the Angels. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Houston Astros. What the Astros did in Games 4 and 5 was certainly impressive. Down two games to one with the next two games in a hostile environment, the visitors threw a no-hitter in Game 4 on Wednesday, and followed that up with a gutsy, 3-2 victory on Thursday to take control of the series as they head home. So now it's the Phillies with their proverbial backs against the wall in Houston and they will answer tonight with RHP Zack Wheeler who has a 2.67 ERA this post-season in five starts. He has a chance for revenge tonight as this is the exact same scenario as Game 2 when Wheeler faced Astros LH Framber Valdez here at Minute Maid Park (the 'Stros won that game, 5-2). Wheeler has a chance to build off of that effort to force a seventh and deciding game here on Sunday. The Phillies are 7-0 in their last seven games following an off-day and 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres -121 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. The two unlikeliest of opponents will meet in the NLCS as Wild Card teams the Phillies and Padres clash in a best-of-seven affair for a trip to the World Series. It would've been almost impossible to imagine that the Padres would have home field advantage in the Championship Series but yet here we are at Petco Park for Game 1. The Padres are also fortunate in that things lined up for their veteran RH ace, Yu Darvish to start things off on five days of rest. Darvish has done little wrong in his two 2022 post-season starts so far, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA with 11 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. In two starts vs. the Phils during the regular season, Darvish allowed three runs in 13 innings (a 2.08 ERA) with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Anything close to that tonight in his pitcher-friendly home park should get the job done. The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games immediately following one or more off-days. And Darvish's teams are 29-13 when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers had an historic season, as they outscored their foes by 334 runs in the regular season -- tied for 3rd in the modern era (behind the 1939 Yankees and 1927 Yankees). Yet, after its 2-1 defeat last night, Los Angeles finds itself 1 loss away from an ignominious end to an otherwise great season. Tonight, Los Angeles will hand the ball to southpaw Tyler Anderson, while San Diego will go with its ace, Joe Musgrove. But even though Musgrove has been an All Star, and has thrown a no-hitter, he's never notched a win against the Dodgers. He's made nine starts for the Pirates and Padres vs. LA, but is 0-6 in those nine starts (his teams are 2-7), with a 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Anderson has had much better success for San Diego, as he's gone 6-3 in 14 starts, with an ERA of 2.46, and a WHIP of 1.06. With LA a super 31-13 following a game where it scored less than 2 runs, we'll take Los Angeles tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. After an historic loss in Game 1, one had to wonder if the Mariners would get blown out in Game 2 in Houston on Thursday. But they fought hard, and even held a 2-1 lead going into the bottom of the sixth inning before succumbing by a 4-2 margin. So rather than looking at the glass as half-empty at this point, Seattle's takeaway from its 0-2 deficit should be that it could just as easily be up 2-0 in this series. The Mariners will go with one of their many young stars on the mound today in 24-year-old RH rookie George Kirby. Kirby finished the regular season 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts covering 135 innings. This will be Kirby's first post-season start (he had a relief appearance in the Wild Card series against the Blue Jays) but all indications are that he's up for the challenge. Kirby's only start vs. the Astros in the regular season was decent -- two runs on four hits in four innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. Seattle is 11-4 in Kirby's last 15 starts since the beginning of July. And it's 47-38 (but +23.7 net games) off back to back losses. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-22 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have their backs against the wall today, as they must win, or their season will be over. The good news is that their pitcher, Charlie Morton, has been exceptional in his career in elimination games. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in such games. That bodes well for Atlanta this afternoon. Noah Syndergaard will get the start for Philly, and this will be just his 3rd start over the last five weeks. He was relegated to the bullpen in September following a 4-game stretch where his ERA was 6.14 and his WHIP was 1.50 over that four starts. But Syndergaard was tabbed for this start over Bailey Falter, who gave up 6 runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last start vs. Atlanta. The Braves already bounced back from a loss in this series to win Game 2, and they're now 41-19 (+14.2 net games) off a loss this season. Take the Braves to level this series at 2 games apiece. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:37 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers took Game 1 of the NLDS by a 5-3 score and then the Padres responded in kind, taking a 5-3 decision on Wednesday behind Yu Darvish to even this series at 1-1. Now the series switches to San Diego for Games 3 and 4. The Padres are taking a calculated risk by starting LH Blake Snell tonight instead of RH Joe Musgrove. That's the same order they used in the three games against the Mets, but almost anyone would agree that Musgrove is a betting pitcher than Snell, who went 8-10 in 24 starts in a season that had its share of injuries. The Padres are basically gambling that they can win tonight and then have Musgrove available to close this series out in a Game 4 scenario. The problem is that in three starts vs. L.A. this season, Snell went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The Dodgers will go with RH Tony Gonsolin who is a leading candidate for NL Cy Young with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 24 starts. L.A. is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego, and 85-40 its last 125 vs. lefties. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -198 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland's pitching was on display when it successfully swept the Tampa Bay Rays at home in two games to advance to the ALDS. In those two games, the Rays managed just one total run on seven hits -- and that was in 24 innings as Game 2 went 15 before the Guardians ended it with a walk-off. But any dreams by fans that they might be able to do the same thing in this series could be quickly dashed. The Yankees have a more potent offense than that of Tampa and they will open up this series in the Bronx where they've gone 57-24 this season while scoring a league-leading 419 runs (5.17 runs per game). Although you could argue that Nestor Cortes has been their best starter, the Yanks will open up with #1 RH Gerrit Cole. The 32-year-old had another outstanding season, going 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts covering 200 2/3 innings. The Guardians are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 23-49 in the last 72 match-ups at Yankee Stadium. And they're a woeful 8-16 (minus 13.4 net games) off a shutout win. Finally, New York's 49-11 +18.5 net games) as a home favorite of -200+. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros -210 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:37 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. In the upset of the post-season so far -- with the Padres being the runners-up -- the Mariners swept past the Blue Jays in Toronto to now face their division rvals in the ALDS. But now the hill gets much steeper as they face the defending AL champs. But there's a big difference between this season's version of the 'Stros and the one from 2021. Last year, as Houston was getting ready to begin the playoffs, it was doing so without veteran RH Justin Verlander. Twelve months later and Verlander is not only back, but he's a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, having gone 18-4 with a league-leading 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 28 starts, covering 175 innings. And Verlander's post-season numbers -- while not at that level -- are pretty darn good (14-11; 3.40 in 31 games). But most important is this: Houston is 11-1 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. Seattle, while the Mariners are 3-4 in Logan Gilbert's seven starts vs. Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-22 | Padres +123 v. Mets | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, ours selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. With their backs against the proverbial wall on Saturday night at home, the Mets won Game 2. With all the talk about the Mets' starting pitching, San Diego's rotation has matched them so far -- and then some. And it must feel pretty good to have a guy as good as Joe Musgrove ready to go in your #3 position. The 29-year-old RH gets the ball tonight for his eighth post-season appearance (and first post-season start ever. Many would argue that he's the best pitcher on the team, with a no-hitter on his resume last season and a darn good campaign in 2022 as well. In 30 starts this season, Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 184 strikeouts in 181 innings. In 14 road starts this season, Musgrove was 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA. The Padres also went 6-3 in Musgrove's last nine regular season starts going back to August 20. Despite the loss in Game 2, the Padres are 5-2 in the last seven meetings going back to June 7. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-22 | Padres v. Mets -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. With a devasting home loss to the Padres on Friday night, the Mets will turn to ace Jacob deGrom tonight in a must-win Game 2. Max Scherzer didn't have anything and Yu Darvish had everything in a stunning game that put the Mets in a big hole. But this is no time to panic, especially with the man considered by most to be the best pitcher in the game set to start for the home team tonight. 34-year-old RH deGrom didn't begin his 2022 campaign until August due to a shoulder issue, but when he finally made it to the mound, he was mostly lights out. deGrom finished the regular season with a 5-4 record and 3.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with a ridiculous 12.75 K:BB ratio (102 strikeouts and only eight walks in 64 1/3 innings). In his post-season career, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts covering 25 innings. And in 10 career starts against the Padres covering 70 1/3 innings, deGrom is 6-3 with a 1.28 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners. How good does it feel to be the Mariners right now? They upset the Blue Jays in Game 1 on Friday -- shut them out 4-0 as a matter of fact -- and now they have the reigning Cy Young Award winner ready to go tonight. And he's pitching against his former team to boot. But before we move Seattle ahead in the AL brackets, let's consider a few things. First, there's the fact that the M's were one of the worst-hitting teams in the league this year (.230 overall), and after the All Star break they hit a paltry .221 -- tied for the worst number in the Majors with the Marlins. Second is the fact that LHP Robbie Ray did not perform all that well away from Seattle this season. In 14 starts on the road covering 78 2/3 innings, Ray went 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. This compared with 3.02 and 1.02 in 18 starts covering 110 1/3 innings at home. The Mariners ended the regular season 0-5 in Ray's last five starts. The home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two clubs. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-22 | Rays +107 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays come into the playoffs on a 5-game losing streak, but none of that matters in this short, best-of-three series. The opening game will feature two former All-Star pitchers in Shane McClanahan (2022) and Shane Bieber (2019, 2021), and the over under line has been installed at 6 runs. McClanahan has done his best work on the road this season, as he's compiled a 2.08 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 10 road starts (compared to a 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home). Meanwhile, the Guardians have struggled at home vs. top-flight American League starting pitchers with ERAs less than 2.90, as they've won just 34 of 84 games (minus 18.4 net games on the moneyline). Tampa Bay is a sensational 20-5 (+19.2 net games) on the road when the Over/Under has been 7 runs or less. And the Rays also excel in the daytime, as they're 91-57 (+21.3 net games). We'll take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-05-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. They didn't make the playoffs, but no team in baseball can be any more optimistic for the future than the Orioles. With the lowest team payroll in the Majors, the O's surprised everyone -- perhaps except themselves -- by posting a winning record and staying alive in the AL Wild Card race until the last few days. With some of the best young players on the planet, no team's fans are looking forward to next season more than those in Baltimore. The remnants of Hurricane Ian put a damper on things in the area on Tuesday so the O's and Jays will finish the season with a double-header today. In Game 1, the O's will send out RH Mike Baumann for his fourth start of the season. The 27-year-old has been used primarily as a reliever this season but the O's have enough faith in Baumann to give him a final start this afternoon. It's a chance for revenge as the Jays beat Baumann exactly one month ago -- ironically also in the first of a double-header -- here at Camden Yards. Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-22 | Giants +139 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. The Phillies have joined the Padres in the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, leaving the Brewers on the outside looking in this season. Since they will have to settle for the 5th or 6th seed -- that has yet to be determined -- the Pads rested a couple of their regular starters last night against the Giants and they may do the same tonight in their next-to-last game of the regular season. The NL Cy Young award won't go to the Giants' Carlos Rodon, but the lefty is right in the mix for another top pitching honor. The 29-year-old All Star is in a tight battle with Corbin Burnes for the NL strikeout title, and he has a 2.88 ERA in 31 starts with a league-leading 12.0 K rate. In his only other start at Petco Park this season, Rodon threw a complete game, allowing one run one on three hits with 12 strikeouts in a 3-1 Giants victory. Take San Francisco. |
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10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -191 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros have locked up the best record and number 1 seed in the American League, so you could say that these final games don't mean anything to them -- just that they want to make sure they stay healthy. But this one actually does mean something to Houston and its ace RHP, Justin Verlander. The 'Stros would like to see Verlander get his 18th win tonight as it just might clinch his third Cy Young award. Verlander not only already leads the AL with a 17-4 record, but he is also out in front with a 1.85 ERA, an .810 win percentage, a 0.85 WHIP, and hit rate of just 6.1. There are few pitchers in the history of the game that have dominated in inter-league games like Verlander. In 54 appearances (all starts) against the NL, Verlander is an incredible 37-8 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And against the Phillies, the 39-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts covering 14 innings. Despite the loss last night, the home team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings of these two teams. Take the Astros. |
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10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -220 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the Padres having secured their Wild Card berth on Sunday (despite losing), the final spot in the National League comes down to the Phillies and Brewers. The Phils hold a two-game lead after winning their last couple of games over the woeful Nats on Saturday and Sunday (the Brewers didn't help themselves by losing their last two). The good news for Milwaukee (if there is any) is that while Philly has to go to Houston this week for its last three, the Crew gets to host the D-Backs. In the first game, the Brewers will send out RHP Brandon Woodruff. The 29-year-old has been on fire recently. Over his last four starts, Woodruff is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA with 42 strikeouts and five walks in 26 innings. Woodruff's overall numbers are very good, but at home he is in another zone. In 12 starts this season here at American Family Field covering 72 2/3 innings he is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Brewers are also 4-1 in Woodruff's five career starts vs. the D-Backs going back to May of 2018. Take Milwaukee. |
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10-02-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. If the Brewers make it into the post-season, they might want to send some flowers to the Cubs and Nationals. Locked in a tight Wild Card race with the Phillies, the Brewers have watched as the Cubs swept the Phils over three games last week and then the Nats blasted them on Saturday in the first game of a double-header by a 13-4 score. Without Philly's poor play, Milwaukee would be all but eliminated from playoff contention. They'll get a chance to pull even with the Phillies this afternoon if they can beat the Marlins, and the Nats can upset Philadelphia. RHP Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers. The 26-year-old was sidelined due to a lat muscle injury early on and then again this month due to shoulder fatigue. He appears to be healthy now and that's very good news for his team as it tries to grab the final MLB Wild Card spot. The Brewers are 18-11 in Peralta's last 29 outings with an extra day or two of rest following his previous start. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 1-3 in Pablo Lopez's four starts vs. the Brewers. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -175 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -175 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. With just six games left in the regular season, the Brewers find themselves in one of the closest playoff races they've ever been involved in -- although this is nothing new for them. In 2019 for example, Milwaukee lost a one-game Wild-Card elimination after holding a 3-1 lead over the Nationals heading into the bottom of the eighth inning. Even though the sting of that one is behind them, the Brewers just never seem to do anything easily, lately. And this year is no exception. RHP Aaron Ashby will take the mound tonight. The 24-year-old southpaw made one other appearance vs. the Marlins this season. That was back on May 15, and he held them hitless over 4 innings, and struck out eight. He'll match up against righty Edward Cabrera, who will be facing the Brewers for the first time in his career. After last night's loss, Miami is a wallet-breaking 10-32 its last 42 vs. winning teams, and 8-33 (minus 20.4 net games) when priced from +150 to +200 on the road.Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -163 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. Corbin Burnes, last season's National League Cy Young award winner, has matched his 2021 win total with 11 victories. The 27-year-old RHP is going to try to surpass that number tonight and set a new career best with his 12th win. But more important, Burnes is attempting to lead the Brewers to the post-season. As of this writing, Milwaukee is a half-game back of the Phillies for the final National League Wild Card spot. Burnes is 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a league-leading 231 strikeouts in 191 innings coming into his 32nd start tonight. The Brewers are 23-12 in Burnes' last 35 home starts and 29-12 in his last 41 starts in the second half of the season (10-4 in his last 14 September starts). Meanwhile, Miami is an awful 10-31 its last 41 vs. winning teams, and 8-32 (minus 19.4 net games) when priced from +150 to +200 on the road. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -159 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -159 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. The NL Wild Card has been slipping away from the Milwaukee Brewers over the last few weeks. With just eight games to go, the Brewers are making a final push for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Having been eliminated from the NL Central race by the Cardinals, Milwaukee is now focused on finishing ahead of the Phillies. And Philadelphia is helping them out by having lost seven of its last 10 games. We played on the Brewers last night vs. the Cardinals, and will come right back with them tonight. The Brew Crew will send LHP Eric Lauer to the mound for his 28th start of the season. In 27 starts covering just under 148 innings, Lauer is 10-7 with a 3.96 ERA with 141 strikeouts. The Brewers are also 16-11 in Lauer's starts this season -- 7-4 in his home starts. Finally, Miami is 41-64 its last 105 vs. lefties (minus 20.2 net games). Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St Louis Cardinals. The Brewers will try to close the gap (for the final playoffs spot) between themselves and the Phillies tonight. The Brewers sit 1.5 games behind the Phils, but enjoy an advantage in the schedule to end the season. Milwaukee will play its final eight games at home, while Philly will be on the road for its final nine games. Tonight, Milwaukee will hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff for his 26th start of the season (and 12th here, at home). Woodruff is 12-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. And he's a perfect 7-0 at home (Milwaukee has won 10 of his 11 home starts). In his career, Woodruff has made six home starts vs. St. Louis, including one this season (5 IP, 0 ER). Milwaukee's won four of those six starts. And it's 35-17 at home with Woodruff in his career. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Jose Quintana, has made 10 starts at Milwaukee, including one this year (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER). In those 10 starts, covering 57 2/3 innings, Quintana's allowed 26 earned runs (4.05 ERA). The Cardinals are a poor 8-20 (minus 9.2 net games) this season when installed as an underdog of +125 to +175 (and 28-49 their last 47). Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -185 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -185 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. Once -- not long ago -- one of the hottest teams in the AL, the Mariners have been scuffling lately, going 3-7 over their last 10 games. Fortunately for them, their main competition for the final Wild Card spot -- the Orioles -- have gone 4-6 in their last 10, so Seattle still maintains a four-game lead with just 10 games to go. So it would be especially beneficial for the M's if their ace could win a couple of starts down the stretch. LH Robbie Ray was the 2021 Cy Young Award winner with the Blue Jays, but he's 0-2 in his last three starts -- with his ballclub going 0-3 in those. The Mariners need Ray to step up here in the last week-and-a-half. The good news is that Ray has been very successful this season against the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in two starts vs. Texas covering just under 13 innings. He's also done his best work at home, going 6-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 16 starts here covering 99 innings (vs. 6-6 and 4.69 in 14 starts on the road). Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. Aaron Judge hit his 60th home run -- tying him with Babe Ruth and putting him one behind Yankee Roger Maris -- on September 20th against the Pirates. That game was the first of a six-game home stand so it was expected that Judge would hit his historic 61st homer -- and possibly even a bigger 62nd -- at Yankee Stadium in front of the home crowd and the Maris family who have been in attendance. But Judge didn't hit another one and now the Yanks travel north for a three-game series against the Jays. Kevin Gausman will go in Game 1 for the home team tonight. Gausman came to Toronto from San Francisco in the off-season and he's been a big part of the Jays' success, going 12-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 29 starts covering 165 1/3 innings. And his 7.19 K:BB ratio is a career-best, and leads the league this season. Gausman comes into this start off of six shutout innings in a no-decision against the Phillies . And the Jays are 4-2 in his last six starts after allowing no runs in his last. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 3-15 their last 18 on the road vs. winning teams. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Rays -133 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays. There isn't much separating these two teams right now as they prepare to meet for the final time in this regular season. The Rays get to wrap things up by sending out their Ace LH, Shane McClanahan, who started for the AL in this season's All Star Game. The 25-year-old is 12-6 with a 2.36 ERA in 26 starts covering just over 156 innings for the Rays. None of his starts to date have been any more important than this one as the Rays try to position themselves as the #1 Wild Card in the American League. In two previous starts this season against Toronto, McClanahan is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.67 WHIP, with 15 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings. He'll look to keep that dominance going tonight in his home ballpark. In 17 starts here this season covering 100 2/3 innings, McClanahan is 9-4 with a 2.59 ERA. The Blue Jays are also 0-4 in their last four games vs. southpaw starters (and 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. lefthanders). Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-22 | Blue Jays +100 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays and Rays battled last night here in St. Pete. It took a four-run eighth inning from the home team to break a 6-6 tie that resulted in a big win for the Rays. With that result, the Rays and Jays now have identical records on the season and they could come out of the weekend that way if they split the next two days. The Jays will try to bounce back this evening behind the man who has been an ace for them pretty much all season. Big RH Alek Manoah will get his 30th start of the season tonight. The 24-year-old is 14-7 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just under 184 innings. As you might expect from a 6 foot 6 inch, 285 lb starter, Manoah isn't likely to wear down late in the season. In fact, you could argue that September has been his best month so far, as he has gone 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in four September starts covering 28 innings (and the Blue Jays are 8-1 in his nine career September starts). In 15 road starts this season, Manoah is 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA in 93 innings. The Jays are also 8-2 in their last 10 after losing the first two of a series, and 73-47 vs. righties (compared to 11-20 vs. lefties). Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-22 | Astros -138 v. Orioles | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -138 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Baltimore Orioles. The Astros have once again locked up the AL West Division -- and rather easily. The only thing left for the 'Stros is to make sure they finish the season ahead of the Yankees, and therefore with the best record in the American League. So, every game is still important to Houston. The Astros will send 27-year-old RHP Jose Urquidy to the mound tonight in the second game of the series. Urquidy has had two poor starts in a row but they were both at home. In his last three road starts, he has allowed just three runs on 15 hits in 21 2/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and three walks. The Astros are also 13-4 in the last 17 here at Orioles Park, and 13-6 off a shutout loss. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 3-8 as a home underdog behind Dean Kremer. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-22 | Mariners -200 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -200 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. Yesterday, the A's held Seattle to a single run, in a 4-1 victory. We'll look for the M's to bounce back tonight, as they're 33-22 (+19.0 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs. The Mariners' lefty ace, Robbie Ray, will get the start tonight. And the southpaw has dominated Oakland with a 2.30 career ERA in his five starts (his teams have gone 4-1). The A's have struggled this season at home vs. lefties, as they're 4-16. And Seattle's a super 30-10 as a road favorite, while Oakland's 25-50 (minus 12.9 net games) as a home dog. Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -190 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Detroit Tigers. Austin Voth had been getting regular starts for the Orioles since coming over from the Nationals in the beginning of June. But due to some shuffling last week, Voth came into the game against the Nationals from the bullpen for an inning of relief work. And wouldn't you know it but he picked up the victory in that game six days ago. The Orioles have now won all three of of the September games that the 30-year-old RHP has appeared in (including two starts). He's back to his starting role tonight at home in the second game of this series against the Tigers. The O's were sloppy in Game 1 on Monday and lost a game that they desperately needed to win (and were expected to). In the crowded AL Wild Card race, every game is critical for Baltimore. The Orioles are 8-0 in Voth's last eight home starts. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-22 | Mariners -135 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels. Los Angeles will try to sweep this 4-game series this afternoon after defeating the Mariners, 5-1, yesterday. That was the 2nd straight game the M's scored just a single run. But Seattle is a solid 25-17 (+12.4 net games on the moneyline) after scoring less than 2 runs, 65-48 (+22.0 net games) in daytime affairs, and 72-61 (+22.9 net games) off a loss. This pitching matchup will feature lefty Jose Suarez for the Angels, and righty Logan Gilbert for Seattle. Gilbert comes into this game off one of his best 3-game stretches of the season. He's allowed just 1 earned run over his previous three starts (17 innings; 0.53 ERA; 0.88 WHIP; 23 strikeouts). And Seattle is 16-3 behind Gilbert after he's given up less than 3 earned runs over back-to-back starts. Suarez has made four home starts in his career vs. Seattle, and has given up 12 earned runs over 20 1/3 innings (5.31 ERA; 1.18 WHIP). The Angels lost three of those four games. Meanwhile, Gilbert has a 3.95 ERA in his career starts vs. LA, with a WHIP of 1.28. He's faced the Angels four times here in L.A., and the Mariners are 4-0. Los Angeles is 6-15 as a home dog this season. Even worse, it has been a home underdog 13 times with Suarez on the mound since he entered the league in 2019, and is 2-11 in those games. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-22 | Yankees -170 v. Brewers | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Milwaukee Brewers. Today will be Gerrit Cole's 30th start of the season for the Yankees. Cole is far from done, too, as the veteran RHP could get three more starts before the end of the regular season. And then he will likely carry the load for New York in the post-season. Cole is having another outstanding campaign with an 11-7 record and 3.30 ERA, with a league-leading 228 strikeouts in 177 1/3 innings. The Yanks are making a rare regular season appearance in Milwaukee and, given how the first two games of the series have gone, they may not want to come back anytime soon. But Cole can get New York back on track this afternoon with another one of his strong starts. He is an inter-league machine with an 18-7 record (.720) and 2.84 ERA in 34 starts covering just under 216 innings against teams from the opposite league. The Yankees are also 10-4 in Cole's last 14 starts as a road favorite, and 52-26 in their last 78 games vs. teams from the NL Central. Meanwhile, Jason Alexander's ERA in his home starts is an ugly 5.81, and the Brewers have lost four of those five starts. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -104 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. Sometimes a starting pitcher can get redemption for a disappointing season with just one start. Tonight could be just such an instance for the Phillies and RH Aaron Nola. It's been a tough season for sure for the 29-year-old who has called Philadelphia home since he came into the league in 2015. In 28 starts covering 179 1/3 innings, Nola is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA. Those are not the type of numbers expected from an ace on a winning team. But a quality start and victory against the defending World Series champs should give Nola perhaps a big boost going forward. He threw two scoreless innings last Sunday at home against the Nationals before exiting due to an extended rain delay. In 28 career starts vs. the Braves covering just under 176 innings Nola is 14-9 with a 3.43 ERA. The Phils have won two of Nola's three starts vs. Atlanta this season by a combined score of 18-5. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-22 | Phillies v. Braves -175 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. Max Fried probably won't win the NL Cy Young, but he should definitely be part of the conversation. Over the last four seasons, the 28-year-old has developed into one of most consistent and reliable left-handed starters in the game. In 27 starts this season, Fried is 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and it seems like it doesn't matter where he pitches or who he faces -- Fried just goes out and gets quality innings almost every time. Tonight will be Fried's third start of the season against the Phillies. In 60 career games here at his home venue (now called Truist Park) covering 318 2/3 innings, Fried is 27-11 (.711) with a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. In 16 career games vs. the Phillies covering just under 64 innings, Fried is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA. In his last three starts against the Phils here at home, Fried has allowed four ER on 14 hits in 18 innings (a 2.00 ERA) with 16 strikeouts and four walks. The Braves have won all three of those home meetings by a combined score of 24-9. But perhaps Fried's most important role is that of a "stopper," as the Braves are 28-9 with him on the mound after they lost their previous game. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-22 | Padres v. Mariners -148 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the San Diego Padres. Here is an interesting inter-league match-up between two West division clubs that are hopelessly behind League-leading teams and therefore trying to stay alive in their respective Wild Card races. Going into this game, the Mariners are in a battle (with the Rays and Blue Jays) for the top wild card spot, while the Padres are sitting in sixth in the NL standings, two games clear of the Brewers for the final Playoffs spot. RH Luis Castillo -- acquired by Seattle at the trade deadline -- will get the start this afternoon for the home team. Castillo has plenty of experience against the Padres from his time with Cincinnati in the National League. In seven starts since joining the M's, Castillo is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in just over 43 innings. And in his seven career starts vs. San Diego, Castillo has a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 40 innings. The Padres' Mike Clevinger, in contrast, has a 6.00 ERA in his career starts vs. Seattle. The M's ran into a red-hot pitcher last night in Yu Darvish but despite their loss here they're still 5-2 in their last seven inter-league games vs. teams with a winning record. And they're 28-11 (+11.3 net games) this season as a favorite, priced from -125 to -175. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-22 | Rockies v. White Sox -180 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Colorado Rockies. Don't look now but here come the White Sox. The team that was just about everyone's pick to win the AL Central took a while to get going, but now they're one of the hottest teams in the AL. And they're doing it without their Hall of Fame Manager, Tony La Russa who was told by his doctors to step away from the game for a while (it's unknown when or even if La Russa will be back). With bench coach Miguel Cairo as skipper, the Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 games and have moved into second place in the Division, just 2 1/2 games back. RH Michael Kopech will get his 25th start of the season tonight. The 26-year-old should be very glad to be pitching back at home tonight. His last two were on the road and they were rough. In his last three starts here on the South Side, Kopech has allowed five runs on 11 hits in 19 innings with 16 strikeouts and six walks. In 12 career inter-league games (three starts) covering 27 2/3 innings, Kopech is 3-0 and has yet to allow a run (0.00 ERA)! Meanwhile, Colorado has won just 27 of 99 games as road underdogs of +150 (or more). Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Boston Red Sox. You probably didn't expect to hear this come September but every game is crucial for the Orioles now. Baltimore appears serious that it's not just going to settle for a winning campaign -- this team wants a spot in the post-season. They have recently called up yet another talented prospect in IF Gunnar Henderson and are starting the 21-year-old virtually every game. So needless to say the O's need to take at least two of these next three at home against the Red Sox -- a team that they can beat on a regular basis for a change. RH Austin Voth will get things started for the O's. The 30-year-old journeyman has found a home in Baltimore and he's making the most of it. In 17 games (13 starts) with the Orioles, Voth is 4-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 63 innings. And in six starts at Camden Yards, Voth is 3-0 while the Orioles are an incredible 6-0. The Red Sox are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game (they were just shut out by Tampa). Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-22 | Giants v. Brewers -197 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. If the Brewers are going to turn their recent fortunes around and have any chance of making the post-season, now is the time to do it. They are looking at a double-header today with the 65-70 Giants, followed by three more at home over the weekend against the Reds. At the very least, they will need to go 3-2 but taking four games out of the five is almost mandatory considering the situation. And they start with their Cy Young-winning ace on the mound this afternoon. Corbin Burnes won't be taking down the hardware this season, but he still has some very solid overall numbers even if he's been struggling lately. The 27-year-old RH needs to put his last three starts behind him (0-1 with an 8.22 ERA) and pitch like he's capable of today. The good news is that somehow the Brewers managed to win two of those last three starts and they are still 17-10 overall when he goes to the hill this season. The Brewers are also 8-2 in Burnes' last 10 September starts, while the Giants are a poor 9-23 vs. NL starters with an ERA of 3.20 (or less), and 6-24 as a road underdog (minus 14.6 net games). Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-22 | Brewers -130 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. Milwaukee lost, 10-7, in extra innings last night, so they look to rebound on this Wednesday afternoon. Eric Lauer will get the start for Craig Counsell's men, and time is running out for them, as they're now 3 games behind the Phillies and Padres with just 27 games to go. Notwithstanding last night's victory, the Rockies are still a poor 15-30 their last 45 games. And they're 3-12 off a win in their previous game. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-22 | Mets -207 v. Pirates | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -207 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. This past weekend's home series against the Nats was supposed to be an automatic 3-0 to ensure that New York would stay at least three games ahead of Atlanta. Instead, the unthinkable occurred as the Mets dropped two of the games while the Braves swept the Marlins to get within a game of a tie for first place. So, if you think New York is going into Pittsburgh over-confident, you might want to think again. The Mets and Pirates were rained out yesterday, so they'll give it another go this evening. New York will send 10-game winner Taijuan Walker to the mound. The 30-year-old RH has a chance to right his own ship after a month of August he would like to erase completely. Despite a disastrous last month, Walker still has a 10-3 record with a 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 23 starts. And a veteran like him should able to put the bad stuff aside and focus on what he needs to do going forward. New York is a solid 36-14 off a loss this season, and 10-2 off back to back losses. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. teams from the NL East, and 1-10 at home with Mitch Keller on the mound. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-22 | Yankees -120 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees. Don't look now, but what once appeared to be an insurmountable deficit that the Rays had behind the Yankees is now down to just four games. The Yanks looked like they had righted the ship last week when they won five in a row, but with the loss here in St. Pete last night, they've now lost six of their last seven and are in danger of being caught in the standings -- something that seemed all but impossible a couple of months ago. The struggles of their newest starter, RH Frankie Montas, have been well documented by now. And if the Yanks ever needed him to finally come through for them -- now is the time. And there are a couple of reasons to think that he will. First, Montas' last start was his longest since he came to the Bronx -- six innings -- and in his last two outings, Montas has logged 12 strikeouts and only one walk. Second, Montas does well against Tampa. In six career games vs. the Rays (five starts), Montas is 2-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, with 32 strikeouts and five walks in 33 2/3 innings. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-03-22 | Brewers -171 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. There was a time -- not that long ago -- when Madison Bumbarner was one of the most feared pitchers in the game. It appears those days are gone as the veteran southpaw -- still only 33-years-old -- is on his way to his third consecutive losing season. Bumgarner is signed through 2024, so unless the D-Backs are able to move him, we'll likely see him in an Arizona uniform for a while despite his sub-par numbers. Speaking of sub-par, Brewers ace Corbin Burnes has been just that in his last three starts (1-1 with a 7.04 ERA in 15 1/3 innings). But two of those were against the Dodgers, so Burnes likely isn't overly-concerned, and will look to get back on track tonight against an Arizona team that he completely dominated when he previously faced it (7 IP; 0 R; 4 H; 13 K; 0 BB). Anything close to that performance tonight should result in a Brewers win as they try to keep pace with the Cardinals. Despite the loss last night, the Crew is still 19-8 in the last 27 meetings. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-22 | Orioles v. Guardians -172 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -172 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Guardians over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles welcomed their latest top prospect up to the Show last night and 3B Gunnar Henderson didn't disappoint. In his second at-bat, the 21-year-old from Alabama crushed a home run for his first Major League hit while leading the O's to a 4-0 victory. It was their first win of this series, so they will go for a four-game split tonight in the finale It won't be easy however as the visitors have to face former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. The veteran RH is having another strong season, posting a 3.02 ERA in 24 starts with 153 strikeouts in 152 innings with 32 walks. The only numbers that are sub-par for an ace is Bieber's 8-7 record. But Bieber has been a Bird killer in his career. In three lifetime starts against the Orioles, Bieber is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.54 WHIP with 37 strikeouts and two walks in 24 innings. The Guardians are also 53-23 (+18 net games) as a home favorite the last 2 seasons, and 59-27 (+12.3 net games) in Bieber's career when favored. Take Cleveland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-22 | Dodgers v. Mets +128 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In what could be a preview of the NLCS, the Dodgers come into Shea tonight for the first of four games that for sure will be closely watched and analyzed by many. The Dodgers will start southpaw Andrew Heaney, while the Mets will go with veteran Taijuan Walker. The 30-year-old RHP is 10-3 with a very nice 3.38 ERA in 22 starts covering just over 117 innings. Walker has allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts combined but received very little run support in those -- both no-decisions. He will look for the bats to return for him tonight at home as they did in his four starts prior to that when the Mets plated a total of 31 runs. The Mets were shut out, 1-0, in their last game, but are 35-12 off a loss. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-22 | Yankees -173 v. Angels | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -173 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels. Almost a month after being acquired at the trade deadline by the Yankees, RHP Frankie Montas is still looking for his first win in Pinstripes. To say that the 29-year-old has been a disappointment since joining New York from Oakland would be a big understatement. But if Montas can put up four victories and a 3.19 ERA in 19 starts with the A's, then he certainly should be able to do at least that with a much superior Yanks club. The good news is that New York is still comfortably in first place and there's still plenty of time for Montas to right the ship (before a trip to the bullpen would be considered as an option). A start against a bad Angels team with which Montas is very familiar could be just what the Doctor ordered. In 15 games -- 12 starts -- covering 70 1/3 innings, Montas is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP vs. the Halos. And here at Angels Stadium he is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in six games -- five starts -- covering 30 innings. New York won the three games earlier this season (in New York) by a combined 17-3 score, and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings here in Orange County. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -190 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brew Crew lost in extra innings last night, 4-3, which was its 3rd straight defeat. Tonight, Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Craig Counsell's men, and he's 5-0 in eight home starts this season (Milwaukee is 7-1 in those games), with a 2.51 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Woodruff has also been dominant vs. the Cubs. In his last eight starts vs. them, Woodruff has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 8 games. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-22 | Angels v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Los Angeles Angels. The Blue Jays' troubles continue as the Angels spanked them at home, 12-0, in the first game of this weekend series. Despite the presence of two of the best players in the game -- Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani -- the Angels are a terrible team right now. They're also without their closer for this series as Ryan Tepera is unvaccinated and therefore could not make the trip across the border into Canada (though they didn't need him in their rout on Friday night). It will be Ohtani getting the ball this afternoon for his 22nd start of the season. Ohtani's numbers tell you everything you need to know about the Angels. He has some dominant pitching stats but is just 10-8 in the won-lost column so you can imagine how bad the records are of the other L.A. starters. Alek Manoah will get his 25th start of the season. The big RHP hasn't won a game since August 4, but is still 12-6 with a 2.66 ERA on the season. Despite their win yesterday, the Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. a RH starter. And Toronto is an awesome 27-10 after scoring less than two runs. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-26-22 | Padres -180 v. Royals | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Kansas City Royals. Joe Musgrove will get the start for the Padres tonight. And once again, the Padres will look to their ace to stop a losing streak. The Padres and Musgrove were in a similar situation last Saturday, and Musgrove allowed just 1 run over 6 innings, in a 2-1 Padres victory. That moved San Diego's record to 9-1 this season with Musgrove, if it was off a loss in its previous game (and 21-11 its last 32 in that situation). Kris Bubic will start for the Royals, and he has a 5.40 ERA and 2.19 WHIP over his last three starts. And his ERA in Interleague contests this year is an ugly 11.13. The Royals are also a wallet-busting 13-36 (minus 11.1 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or more). Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-24-22 | Guardians v. Padres -150 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cleveland Guardians. Heading into the All-Star Break, Blake Snell was his normal inconsistent self, going 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA in 10 starts covering 50 innings. Needless to say, Snell did not play in the Mid-Summer Classic in Los Angeles and he must have used those days off to figure out exactly what he was doing wrong -- and to correct it. Since the break, the 29-year-old LHP has been one of the hottest starters in the National League. In six starts since the All Star Game covering just under 34 innings, Snell is 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He threw in a bit of a clunker in his last start (5IP, 3ER) but his other 5 starts were brilliant. Snell has some solid experience against the Indians/Guardians from his time in the American League. In five starts vs. Cleveland covering 33 1/3 innings, Snell is 2-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's 10-7 with a 3.02 ERA in 21 inter-league starts covering just over 116 innings. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-23-22 | White Sox -139 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Baltimore Orioles. The O's stayed hot with a win over the Red Sox in Williamsport, PA, in the MLB Little League Classic on Sunday. They had Monday off and return home tonight to begin a series with the White Sox. They would have normally been facing one of Chicago's lesser starters but Dylan Cease was rained out on Sunday, so Baltimore will have to face one of the most dominant starters in baseball instead. How Cease didn't make the AL All-Star squad is still a huge mystery. And he's done little since that time to make the voters feel better about his omission. In 24 starts covering just under 134 innings, Cease is 12-5 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. And his 178 strikeouts is good for second-best in the American League. He had a rare, non-quality start his last time out (5 IP, 3 ER). It was the 5th time this season he surrendered more than 1 earned run. But he usually bounces back as he's been brilliant in his 4 starts following those sub-par outings (25 2/3 IP, 2 ER), while the ChiSox went 4-0 in those games. The White Sox are also 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. teams with a winning record. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-22 | Braves -185 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you had told Jake Odorizzi in early July that he was going to be traded away from the team with the best record in the AL, he might have been understandably upset. But if you then told the 32-year-old RH that he would be landing in Atlanta with the defending World Series Champs, well, he probably would've been okay with that. Odorizzi gives the Braves some much needed depth at the back end of their rotation. And although he's still looking for his first win with the club, Atlanta seems confident putting the veteran out on the mound every five days or so. Two of his starts have come against the Mets, so this will be a step down in class for him, in his 16th start of the season -- fourth with the Braves. In two career starts vs. the Bucs, Odorizzi is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 10 innings. The Braves are also 6-0 in their last six road games and 111-55 (+32.1 net games) their last 166 as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 0-5 in their last five games vs. NL East teams. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-21-22 | Mariners -200 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -200 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. The Mariners 4-game win streak was snapped yesterday by Oakland, so Seattle will look to start a new streak this afternoon. And who better to have on the mound than recently acquired Luis Castillo. All Castillo has done since June 28 is lead his teams to victories, as he's gone 3-0 in eight starts, with a 1.82 ERA, while his teams have gone 8-0. Castillo has been installed as a big favorite today, and Oakland is 19-41, minus 14.3 net games, when priced as a home underdog. Even worse: the A's are 0-8 this year at home when the Over/Under line was less than 7 runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners are a solid 23-7, +13.7 net games, as a road favorite. Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +104 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 104 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers beat the mighty Dodgers in dramatic fashion on Tuesday night, plating two runs in the bottom of the 11th after falling behind in the top of the inning. That sent the Brewer faithful home in delirious fashion but the Dodgers got their revenge last night. So, now the Brewers will try to earn a 2-2 split in this series. And who better to have on the mound for the home team than the reigning Cy Young Award winner?! RHP Corbin Burnes is having another season that is worthy of consideration for top pitching honors in the NL. In 23 starts, Burnes is 8-5 with a 2.39 ERA and he leads the league with a 0.92 WHIP as well as his 181 strikeouts and an 11.4 K rate. Milwaukee's won 41 of Burnes' 65 career starts. And Burnes' ERA in his career in day games is also solid (3.03). Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-22 | Mets -142 v. Braves | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have so far made a statement in this series against the Mets. Atlanta has taken the first two games of this four-game set by a combined score of 18-1. The only problem, however, is that over the next two days, the Braves hitters will have to face possibly the two best pitchers in the game in Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer is up first tonight for the visitors. The 38-year-old RHP has been nothing short of brilliant in his first season in Queens. In 16 starts covering just under 103 innings, Scherzer is 8-2 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 126 strikeouts and only 17 walks. Those are the kind of numbers that could earn Scherzer his fourth Cy Young award. In 29 career games vs. the Braves -- 27 starts -- Scherzer is 12-9 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. But this season with the Mets, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in his two starts vs. Atlanta. And the Mets are also 31-11 off a loss. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers -112 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers have been installed as a home favorite vs. Ryan Pepiot and the Dodgers tonight. And it's certainly justified with Brandon Woodruff on the mound tonight. Woodruff has been dominant in his career as a home favorite, as the Brewers are 6-1 this season in that situation, and 29-14 in his career. Woodruff's home ERA this season is 2.38, with a 0.76 WHIP. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -210 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -210 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. This will be Dean Kremer's fourth career start vs. Toronto. Unfortunately for the Orioles' RH, his ERA is 11.33 and his WHIP is 2.03 in those three outings, and Baltimore went 0-3. Even worse: the Orioles are a wallet-busting 1-10 as an underdog of +150 (or higher) with Kremer, including 0-6 on the road. Meanwhile, Alek Manoah is 2-0 in five career starts vs. Baltimore, with a 2.96 ERA and a sparkling 0.87 WHIP. And the Blue Jays are 14-5 in his 19 home starts in his career, and 16-5 when Manoah has pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Take Toronto. |
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08-16-22 | Rays v. Yankees -158 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -158 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm our selections is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. Nestor Cortes has adopted the nickname “Nasty Nestor” among the Yankees faithful this season and it appears to be well deserved so far. The 27-year-old Cuban southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 21 starts with 125 strikeouts in 118 innings. The thing about Cortes when you watch him pitch is that his delivery seems so effortless and he doesn't throw particularly hard so you naturally think he would be easy to hit. Quite the opposite is true however. MLB batters are still trying to figure Cortes out as the All-Star has allowed just 89 hits and he continues to baffle his opponents. His efficient throwing style should be especially important as we get into the latter stages of the season and he will no doubt be an important part of his team in the post-season as well. He's also done by far his best work at home this season with a 4-0 record and 2.06 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine starts here at Yankee Stadium vs. 5-3 and 3.15 in 12 starts on the road. Take the Yankees. |
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08-15-22 | Phillies -170 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies acquired Noah "Thor" Syndergaard in a deadline deal which was pretty quiet compared to some of the other trades that went down at the same time. Philly doesn't need Syndergaard to be a #1 or even a #2 starter -- they have Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for that -- but rather just a guy who will give them quality innings as a back-end member of the rotation. Thor did just that in his last start -- his second with the Phils -- as he tossed six strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits in a 4-3 Philadelphia victory over the Marlins. He'll look to build on that tonight in the first of three against the Reds at home. He couldn't have hand-picked a better opponent if he tried as Syndergaard is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six starts against the Reds covering just under 43 innings. The Reds will go with Mike Minor who is threatening to re-define what a frustrating campaign looks like as the veteran RH is 1-9 with a 6.24 ERA in 12 starts in his first season in Cincinnati. Take the Phillies. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-22 | Twins -135 v. Angels | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Anaheim Angels. Last night, Minnesota blew a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning, en route to 5-3 extra innings loss to the Angels. Given how tight the American League playoff race is, the Twins can't afford to lose any games, much less those where they have a 9th inning lead. So, I expect the Twins to be in a determined mood this afternoon. They'll hand the ball to RH Chris Archer, while LH Tucker Davidson will toe the rubber for the home team. Unfortunately, for Anaheim, it's been dreadful when dressed up as an underdog. In its last 45 as a dog, the Angels are 12-33 (-16.7 net games). Even worse, they're 33-47 (minus 22.9 net games) vs. righties, and 25-33 (minus 19.8 net games) at home. Archer has had great success vs. the Angels in his career, as he's 6-2 in nine starts, with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers. Bad things can happen to opposing pitchers in Colorado. If you don't believe me, just ask the Cardinals' veteran RH starter Miles Mikolas. Going into last Tuesday, Mikolas was cruising along in another great campaign -- 8-8 with a 2.92 ERA in 22 starts. But his solid numbers were blown up at Coors Field, as he had one of the ugliest outings the Majors has seen this year -- and certainly one of the worst of his career. In 2 2/3 innings, the 33-year-old allowed 10 runs on 14 hits to the Rockies in a 16-5 loss. Mikolas has likely already forgotten that one -- and rightfully so -- as he prepares for start number 24 this afternoon against the Cards' division rivals in a pennant race. In 90 night games -- 70 starts -- Mikolas is just 27-27 (.500). However, in 43 afternoon games -- 36 starts -- he is 14-9 (.609). Mikolas also has a winning record in his career vs. the Brewers (6-4). And the Cards are 27-10 in their last 37 games vs. a LH starter. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-13-22 | Brewers -123 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. Corbin Burnes' 2022 numbers look eerily similar to those he put up in 2021. Yet despite his success, there probably isn't much chance that the two-time All Star will win his second NL Cy Young this season. Burnes took home top pitching honors last season and is almost directly duplicating his stats against this season, but there is a lot more competition and Burnes has been a little snake-bit as well. In 22 starts covering 136 innings, the 27-year-old RH a is 8-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP and his 175 punch-outs lead the league as well. But there are several other strong candidates on contending teams and Burnes doesn't always get the support of his hitters that he should. His last start is a perfect example as Burnes threw six innings of one-run, two-hit ball while striking out nine Reds batters. But he took a no-decision in a 4-2 Crew loss to lowly Cincy. In seven appearances here at Busch Stadium (four starts), Burnes is 3-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. And Milwaukee's 11-3 in his 14 road starts when priced as a road favorite of -150 or less. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-12-22 | Orioles v. Rays -143 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles shipped up to Boston yesterday for a rare one-game series against the Red Sox before heading down to Florida to start this series in St. Pete against the Rays. Who would've thought that in mid-August these two teams would be virtually tied and in the heat of a Wild Card chase. That's no surprise when it comes to the home team tonight, as the Rays have been contending for years and still have one of the best minor league systems. But it's odd to think about no-name Baltimore being in the chase right alongside Tampa. A player who is used to being in the playoff chase is the Rays' RHP Corey Kluber. Gone are his Cy Young numbers, but the veteran is 7-6 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 21 starts covering 111 innings. This will be Kluber's sixth start of the season vs. the O's and he's had some mixed results, with his best efforts by far coming in his two starts against them here at home. Importantly, the O's are 13-38 in the last 51 meetings in St. Pete. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-10-22 | Yankees -125 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners. We played on the Yankees in Game 1 of this 3-game series, and easily won as the Pinstripes scored 9 runs. Yesterday, though, the Yankees bats were completely stifled in a 13-inning, shutout defeat. But off that 1-0 loss, we'll take New York to bounce back on this Wednesday afternoon. Indeed, New York is 21-7 its last 28 after scoring less than 3 runs. And it's also 111-58 (+34.7 net games) its last 169 after being shut out in its previous game. Nestor Cortes will toe the rubber for New York today, and he's a perfect 5-0 in nine daytime starts, with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Mariners have lost Robbie Ray's last three starts, and his ERA over those three contests is a woeful 7.81, while his WHIP was 2.05. This will be Ray's first start vs. New York this season. But last year, he faced the Yankees three times, and was 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-22 | Giants v. Padres -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. Padres RHP Joe Musgrove went into the break as a first-time All Star with an 8-2 record and a 2.42 ERA through his first 16 starts. Since the Mid-Summer Classic, Musgrove has struggled to find a victory, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts against the Mets, Twins, and Rockies. A start against the Giants, though, may just be what the doctor ordered for the 29-year-old. Musgrove owns a 3.66 ERA in nine career starts covering just under 52 innings vs. San Francisco. Musgrove also has a 3.07 ERA in nine starts at Petco Park this season. And the Pads are 3-0 in his last three starts vs. the Giants going back to October 2 of last year. In fact, in those last three starts vs. San Francisco, Musgrove has allowed just one earned run in 19 innings. The Giants will go with RH Alex Cobb who has lost his last five decisions, while the Giants have gone 2-7 in Cobb's last nine starts going back to the beginning of June. And SF is a wallet-breaking 5-17 as a road underdog this year. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-22 | Rays v. Brewers -159 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Brewers got a boost last week from the return of RHP Freddy Peralta. Peralta hadn't pitched since leaving a start against the Nats early on May 22 with an injury. He came off the IL last Wednesday to face the Pirates in Pittsburgh and was obviously rusty, lasting just 3 2/3 innings. I expect a much better performance tonight back at home in this inter-league game vs. the Rays. In 55 career games here in Milwaukee -- 28 starts -- Peralta is 17-8 (68%) with a 3.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP compared to 12-7 (63%) with a 4.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 52 games -- 31 starts -- on the road. The Rays have never seen Peralta before, but he's done some good work in inter-league games, posting a 3.73 ERA in 17 games -- 6 starts -- vs. teams from the AL. The Brewers are also 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Rays, including 2-0 in a short series earlier this season in St. Pete. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-22 | Braves -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox took an odd approach at the recent trading deadline feeling that they could still compete for a Wild Card spot. They didn't want to be sellers and trade away veterans like JD Martinez or Nathan Eovaldi but they also didn't want to be big buyers because that would mean parting with quality prospects. In case they're wrong about getting to this year's post-season, that could be a disaster. From my perspective, they're not only wrong about having a chance of the post-season, they appear to have been drinking some strange Kool-Aid. Just how bad has Boston been since the deadline? How about a 1-4 record including a series loss (1-3) to the lowly Royals. Things get much tougher this week with a visit from the Braves. Charlie Morton kicks things off for the visitors. Morton has struggled a bit lately, but he's still a dangerous veteran RH on the mound. He's had quality starts in five of his last nine outings, and he's 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts at Fenway Park covering 28 innings. In contrast, Rich Hill has only had two quality starts in his last 10 starts. Finally, the Braves are 5-1 in the last six meetings here in Boston, and they're 12-1 off back to back losses. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-08-22 | Yankees -105 v. Mariners | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners. Jamison Taillon was victorious in his last start before the All Star break -- a 14-1 blowout of the Red Sox -- taking his record to 10-2 on the season with the Yankees. The RH has tried three times since the break to get win number 11 but has failed to do so, despite his team winning two of those three second-half starts. Taillon will try again tonight as the Yankees travel from St. Louis to Seattle. They're no doubt happy to be leaving the Gateway City as the Cards were not very hospitable to their guests, sweeping the Yanks over three weekend games. That puts New York's losing streak at a season-high five in a row. In addition to his league-leading .833 winning percentage, Taillon has posted a solid 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts covering 113 2/3 innings this season. The good news for tonight is that in two starts in Seattle's T-Mobile Park covering 13 innings, Taillon is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Yanks are also 35-16 in the last 51 road meetings with the M's. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-06-22 | Blue Jays -132 v. Twins | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -132 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins. There was one blockbuster trade at the deadline that shook up the entire league (Juan Soto and Josh Bell going to the Padres), several more that made some significant ripples throughout baseball, and then quite a few that pretty much went unnoticed. An example of the latter is when the pitching-rich Dodgers sent swing man Mitch White to the Blue Jays in exchange for a couple of Minor Leaguers. With the Dodgers getting Andrew Heaney back recently and Dustin May soon, there weren't going to be too many starting opportunities for the 27-year-old RH. But with the Jays, it's a different story. White will make his Toronto debut tonight after posting a 3.70 ERA in 15 games -- 10 starts -- covering 56 innings for the Dodgers. The Twins will go with RHP Dylan Bundy who has a 5.04 ERA in 18 starts covering just over 89 innings in his first season with Minnesota. Bundy has a winning record overall (6-5) but the Twins are 4-11 in his last 15 starts going back to April 29. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-05-22 | Reds v. Brewers -205 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee returns to American Family Field tonight, and will turn to southpaw Eric Lauer to try to snap its 4-game losing streak. And Lauer's done his best work at home this season, as he's 3-1 in eight starts with a 2.85 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. Lauer last pitched six days ago, when he held the Red Sox to one run over five innings, in a 9-4 Brewers win. And Milwaukee's 9-3 this season with Lauer when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Yesterday, the Brewers lost 5-4 to Pittsburgh -- its second straight one-run defeat -- as the Pirates completed the 3-game sweep. Still, Milwaukee is 7-5 in its last 12 games, including 5-1 at home. And it has scored 5+ runs in eight of those 12 games. In contrast, Cincinnati's offense has scored 3, 3, 2 and 0 in its last four games. And that doesn't bode well for the Reds tonight, as they're 5-20 after scoring less than four runs in each of their three previous games. Even worse: Cincy is 3-15 when priced as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-04-22 | Blue Jays -120 v. Twins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins. Alek Manoah broke out as a rookie in 2021, going 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA in 20 starts -- enough success to land him in the top 10 for AL Rookie of the Year. You can't blame those who thought Manoah could have a sophomore slump in 2022 as we've seen it happen so many times before. But those concerns have long been put to bed as Manoah has done his 2021 campaign one better this season. In 20 starts, the big 24-year-old RHP has an 11-5 record with a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. And he was rewarded with his first -- probably not his last -- All Star Game appearance. The only blemish that continues to be a blight on his stat sheet is the fact that Manoah hits a lot of batters (he is leading the league for the second straight season in the category). Start no. 21 will come against a Twins club that he has yet to face this season -- but that he beat last September in his second-to-last start of 2021. The Blue Jays are 31-15 in their last 46 meetings with the Twins here in Minneapolis. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-22 | Brewers -205 v. Pirates | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -205 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brewers did not add a major arm to their rotation at the MLB trading deadline. However, they will be welcoming a very good one back to the mound tonight. In this second game of the series with the Pirates, RHP Freddy Peralta will get his first start since his loss to the Nationals back on May 22. Following that shortened outing, the Crew placed the 26-year-old ace on the IL with a lat strain. Peralta returns tonight in what will probably be a fairly short outing but no doubt his presence on the mound will be a big boost to the team which continues to stay just barely ahead of the Cards in the NL Central. Despite a higher-than-expected ERA, Peralta was cruising before the injury with a 3-2 record in eight starts and 50 strikeouts and 13 walks in just under 39 innings (an 11.6 strikeout rate). In his last three starts against the Bucs, Peralta is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA (two runs in 18 innings) and the Brewers are 3-0 in those games. Milwaukee is also 4-1 in Peralta's last five starts, and 7-2 in its last nine, overall. Take the Brew Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-22 | Mariners v. Yankees -170 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners landed a big fish (no pun intended) when they traded with the Reds for RHP Luis Castillo a few days ago. The 29-year-old will draw his first starting assignment with his new team this afternoon and it's not an easy task to say the least. Castillo will face the Yankees for the third time in his career and he will go opposite one of the game's best in veteran RH Gerrit Cole. Cole is having another outstanding season, going 9-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 21 starts covering 125 1/3 innings. In his two starts vs. the Yanks, Castillo is 0-1 and both of those starts were here at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, in nine career starts vs. the Mariners, Cole is 6-2 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with 81 strikeouts and eight walks in 63 innings. Castillo is hoping he can break his road hex now that he's with Seattle as, over the last three years, the Reds went 9-22 in his starts away from Cincy. Despite their win on Tuesday, the M's are still just 4-13 in their last 17 here in the Bronx. Take the Yanks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-01-22 | Mariners v. Yankees -175 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees fell, 8-6, here at home to the Royals yesterday. And that dropped New York's record to 8-11 its last 19. Of course, the Yankees' glass is more than half-full, as it still has the 2nd best record in baseball. Tonight, New York will welcome Scott Servais' Mariners to the Bronx. Unfortunately for the Mariners, its All-Star rookie Julio Rodriguez sustained a wrist injury two days ago, which landed him on the Injured List. And, to make matters worse, Seattle's top hitter, Ty France, also missed Sunday's contest, and is questionable to play in this series. New York will start RH Domingo German, while southpaw Marco Gonzales will toe the rubber for the road team. The Yankees have throttled lefties at home all season, as they're a perfect 15-0, and have won those 15 games by an average of 3.4 runs per game! Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-22 | Twins v. Padres -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Minnesota Twins. The Twins won, 7-4, last night, but suffered yet another injury when Alex Kirilloff (who was replacing the injured Max Kepler in right field) exited with a wrist injury. So, Mark Contreras (.111 batting avg.), who was recalled from the minors, finished the game in right field. This certainly is not good news for the Twins, who also had to place Miguel Sano on the 10-day injured list this week. But the Padres won't be shedding any tears for the Twins, as they've been without their star right fielder (Fernado Tatis, Jr.) for the season's first four months. San Diego has survived, though, and is in a good position to reach the post-season. But if the Padres are going to make any noise in the playoffs, they'll need today's starter, Sean Manaea, to step it up. When the Padres acquired Manaea from the Oakland A's just prior to the start of the season, they were hoping that the veteran LH would form a potent 1-2-3 punch with fellow starters Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. But things haven't exactly worked out as planned for Manaea and the Pads so far. In 18 starts covering 104 innings, Manaea is just 5-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The good news is that there's still two months left of the season for the 30-year-old to turn things around. And if he wanted to hand-pick an opponent to get things started, Manaea might very well choose the Twins. In four starts against Minnesota, covering 23 innings, Manaea is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA. And his mound opponent this afternoon -- Dylan Bundy -- not only has an 11.25 career ERA vs. the Padres, but his teams are a horrid 1-6 in his last seven interleague starts. The Twins are also 0-4 in their last four inter-league games vs. teams with a left-handed starter, while the Padres are 13-6 in their last 19 inter-league games vs. teams with a winning record. Finally, Manaea's teams are 16-3 in his 19 career starts against AL Central opponents, and 45-28 (+13.3 net games) in his home starts in his career. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-29-22 | Mariners +161 v. Astros | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. Seattle had won 14 straight games before getting swept last week in a home 3-game series. Then, last night, the Astros won their fourth straight vs. the Mariners here, in Houston. The 2nd game of this 4-game series is tonight, and will match up two former Cy Young Award winners: Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray. Verlander is having a Cy Young-worthy season, as he's 13-3 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Understandably, he's been installed as a big favorite tonight. But Robbie and the Mariners are a live underdog. Indeed, Seattle is 28-28 (+20.7 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or more), while it's 5-3 as an underdog this season with Ray on the hill. And it's also 45-32 (+15.1 net games) vs. righties this season (compared to 9-14, minus 5.1 net games, vs lefties). Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-22 | Royals v. Yankees -215 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals. It was a short subway series -- only two games -- but the kids from Queens can rightfully say -- at least for now -- that they are the kings of New York baseball. The Yankees' reward is a trip back to the Bronx to face the lowly Royals for four games. Jamison Taillon will get things started for the home team tonight. Despite a 10-2 record in the first half of the season, the 30-year-old RHP didn't find himself in the All Star Game last week (it would have been the first in his career). So you can't blame Taillon if he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder. And what better way to get it off than a start against a bad Royals club which he has dominated in his career. In three career starts vs. Kansas City covering 19 1/3 innings (two with the Yanks), Taillon is 1-0 with a ridiculous 0.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. And his teams are 3-0 in those games. The Yankees have only lost four of Taillon's 19 starts this season and the Yanks are also 57-19 in the last 76 meetings with the Royals here at Yankee Stadium. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-22 | Astros -188 v. A's | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -188 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland A's. The Astros will look to avoid a 3-game sweep at the hands of the American League's worst team this afternoon. Oakland took Game 2 by a 5-3 score yesterday, and will look for its sixth win in seven games. But Oakland is a poor 9-25 as a home underdog this season; 1-8 as a home dog priced from +150 to +200; and 7-19 in its last 26 daytime home games. Meanwhile, Houston is a super 56-24 as a favorite, including 27-12 on the road. And it's 6-0 with Christian Javier on the hill, when priced from -175 to -250. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-26-22 | Padres -190 v. Tigers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Detroit Tigers. Mike Clevinger might be the most forgotten starter in the Majors. And it's not because he's old and past his prime (Clevinger is 31). In his last three full seasons with the Guardians (2017-2019), the veteran RH went 38-18 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 513 strikeouts in 447 2/3 innings. Then COVID hit, followed by a series of injuries that culminated in a torn elbow ligament after he was traded to San Diego. So, the result is that we've hardly seen Clevinger since 2019. But he's back in 2022 and putting up some sneaky good numbers with the Padres. The record doesn't jump out at you (2-3) but the rest of Clevinger's stats have picked up where he left off in 2019 in Cleveland. In 10 games -- nine starts -- Clevinger has a 3.50 ERA and he has allowed just 38 hits in his 46 1/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and only 15 walks (a 1.14 WHIP). And he's done his best work on the road, where his ERA is 3.00, and his WHIP is 0.79. He's had plenty of experience vs. the Tigers and he's dominated, going 8-2 with a 1.65 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) covering just over 65 innings. Last night, Detroit erupted for 12 runs, and sent Sean Manaea to the showers after 3 1/3 innings. That raised Detroit's record this season to a slightly profitable 13-15 (but +1.0 net games) vs. southpaws. However, against righty starters, Detroit is a wallet-breaking 26-43 (minus 8.8 net games) this season. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. Things are looking up in the city of Seattle. The Mariners are making a strong run at the AL Wild Card, on the heels of a 14-game win streak before the All Star Break. They also feature one of the most exciting young stars in the game -- OF Julio Rodriguez -- who had his coming-out party at the All Star Game last week. Unfortunately, the just-concluded three games series against Houston showed that the M's still have a ways to go. But these are two teams that may be heading in opposite directions in future seasons (Seattle going up and Houston going down). Chris Flexen will get his 19th start of the season on Monday. His record may only be 6-8, but the M's are 7-3 in his last 10 trips to the mound, including 5-0 in his last five. Most importantly for tonight is the fact that Flexen is a Rangers killer, going 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA in six starts vs. Texas covering just under 36 innings while the M's are 6-0 in those starts. The Rangers are also 16-35 in the last 51 meetings here in Seattle. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-24-22 | Yankees -173 v. Orioles | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles. With yesterday's loss (and the Dodgers' 4-2 win), New York's lead over the Dodgers for the top record in the Majors is just a half-game. And the Yankees' 4-8 record over their last 12 games is their worst stretch of baseball this season. New York's once-vaunted pitching staff has been the culprit. Over the last 12 games, the Yankees have given up 64 runs. And in only three of those 12 games, did they allow 3 runs or less. In contrast, in New York's 12 games prior to this current stretch, they went 9-3, and allowed 3 runs or less in 7 of those 12 games. Southpaw Nestor Cortes will look to right the ship for the Pinstripes, and he's been largely effective this season. He's 7-3, with a 2.63 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. His last start was solid (7 IP, 1 Run, 4 Hits, 4 Strikeouts), while his lone start vs. Baltimore this year was exceptional (5 IP, 0 Runs, 3 Hits, 12 Strikeouts). Overall, Cortes has made three career starts vs. the Birds, and all three were dominant (17 IP, 2 Runs, 10 Hits, 30 Strikeouts). The Orioles will counter with Dean Kremer, who will be making his first start this season vs. New York, and his 6th in his career. In his 3 starts last season vs. New York, he allowed 11 runs over 12 1/3 innings, with 20 Hits, 4 Walks, and 13 strikeouts (8.02 ERA; 1.94 WHIP). Baltimore is an awful 1-9 (minus 7.2 net games) with Kremer, when installed as an underdog of +150 (or more), while the Yankees are 13-5 (+4.6 net games) their last 18 with Cortes when favored -150 (or higher). Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-22 | Twins -165 v. Tigers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. Joe Ryan will get the start for the Twins, who lead the American League Central division by 1.5 games over the Cleveland Guardians. Ryan has had a solid season, with a 2.99 ERA and 6-3 record, and has been installed as a road favorite today. That bodes well, as the Twins have won eight of Ryan's 10 starts this season when favored (compared to just one of four when installed as an underdog). Ryan will face Michael Pineda (the 2nd time this season these pitchers have matched up), and the Twins hit Pineda hard in that previous game (a 5-0 Twins victory). Pineda gave up 3 home runs and 4 runs over five innings. Ryan, though, had his best game of the season, as he threw 7 scoreless innings, while giving up just 1 hit, and striking out 9. Both teams come into this game off a loss. Minnesota, though, is 26-18 (+8.4 net games) off a loss, while the Tigers are a wallet-busting 20-37 (minus 11.3 net games) off a loss. Take the Twins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-22 | Astros -109 v. Mariners | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners come into the second half of the season on a 14-game win streak -- one behind the franchise record they set in 2001 when they went on to win 116 games. Keeping the streak going as we head into late July will prove difficult as Seattle opens with arguably the best team in the League right now -- and one that has a double-digit lead on them in the AL West. The Astros' record may not quite match that of the Yankees, but they began the second half with a double header sweep of New York yesterday. RHP Jose Urquidy will start the first game of this three game series for Houston. The 27-year-old is 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA in 17 starts covering just under 95 innings. Veteran southpaw Marco Gonzales will go for the Mariners. Despite the Mariners success this season and a 3.50 ERA in 18 starts, Gonzales has a league leading nine losses coming into tonight. The Mariners are also 3-6 in Gonzales' last nine starts, while the Astros are 42-18 in the last 60 meetings with the Mariners. Take Houston. |
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07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -253 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. The Brewers and Rockies have mirror opposite records. Milwaukee's 50-43, while Colorado is 43-50. The Brewers will go with last year's Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes, while Antonio Senzatela will be on the hill for Colorado. Burnes is following up last year's campaign with another great season (and actually has better numbers this year). He's made 18 starts, and has a 2.14 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. And his last three starts have seen him give up just 2 runs in 20 1/3 innings, with 25 strikeouts and 8 hits (0.89 ERA; 0.78 WHIP). In contrast, Senzatela has an ERA of 4.95 with a 1.80 WHIP. And, lest you think that's due to his pitching half his games at Coors Field, consider that his ROAD ERA is actually much worse than his home numbers this season. On the road, Senzatela has a 6.86 ERA, with a 1.83 WHIP. And the Rockies have dropped seven of his last eight games, overall. Finally, Colorado is an awful 22-58 (minus 26.4 net games) on the road vs. righties. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-22 | Padres v. Mets -170 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -170 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. The Mets had a great first half of the season, as they come into tonight's game with a 58-35 record -- good enough for the #2 spot in the National League behind the Dodgers. Ace Max Scherzer will get the start for New York, and he's a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts vs the Padres (20 1/3 innings, 3 runs, 11 hits, 18 strikeouts). Even better: when favored -150 (or more), his teams have gone 162-69 (+24.4 net games). New York lost last Sunday to the Cubs, 3-2. But the Mets are an awesome 26-8 off a loss this season, and 45-20 (+15.9 net games) as a favorite. Meanwhile, Darvish's teams have gone 35-44 (minus 21.5 net games) in his nighttime road starts. Take the Mets. |
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07-21-22 | Yankees v. Astros -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Is there a better way to start the second half of the season than a double-header between the two best teams in the American League? Game 1 will feature a starter for the home team who was probably happy to see the All-Star Break. RHP Cristian Javier finished the first half with a couple of clunkers to lower his record to 6-5. But the 25-year-old would still have to consider his 2022 season a success so far. In 17 appearances -- 13 starts -- covering just over 78 innings, Javier posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 12.9 strikeout rate and 3.73 K:BB ratio (those last two numbers are career bests). And Javier has done by far his best work at home this season as in nine games -- seven starts -- here at Minute Maid Park he is 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP vs. 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in eight games on the road. The 'Stros are one of the few teams who have been able to handle the Yanks in 2022, going 3-2 in five games against them so far this season. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-22 | Brewers +135 v. Giants | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. With a win today, the Brewers can finish the first half of the season right where they want to be -- in first place. The NL Central Division figured to be a two-horse race between the Brewers and Cards and that's exactly what it is. Milwaukee will close out the the first half by sending LH Aaron Ashby to the mound for his 12th start of the season. The Giants will counter with RH Logan Webb. The Giants hitters have not seen Ashby before as this will be his first appearance vs. San Francisco. And I've always favored the unknown pitcher in these sort of matchups. Despite the Giants win last night, the road team is still 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two teams. And the Brewers are 62-37 (+18.5 net games) on the road vs. righties. Meanwhile, the Giants are 6-13, -12.8 net games, as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees -155 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. Despite one of the highest winning percentages in baseball (9-2; .818) and the lowest walk rate in the AL at 1.1, Jameson Taillon will be staying home next week instead of going to the All Star game in Los Angeles. The 30-year-old Yankee RHP's cause isn't helped by his 4.01 ERA, his poor start to the month of July, or the fact that three Yankee pitchers are already on the squad (Cole, Cortes, Holmes). Nonetheless, Taillon probably feels snubbed and would like nothing better than to show how well he can perform on the big stage tonight in the biggest rivalry in MLB. To that end, Taillon has some very solid numbers in his career vs. the Sox. In five starts against them covering just under 30 innings, Taillon is 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA. Taillon is also out to avenge one of those poor July starts as it happened last Sunday against Boston (and also his mound opponent, Nick Pivetta). The good news is that Taillon's teams have gone 39-22 (+12.8 net games) in his career when he's worked on an extra day or two of rest. Even better, in five career games vs. the Yanks (four starts), Pivetta is 0-2 with an 8.50 ERA. And, despite their win last night, the Red Sox are still just 5-10 in the last 15 meetings, 12-24 (minus 13.3 net games) vs. division rivals, and 33-36 (minus 6.7 net games) vs. righties. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-15-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -174 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yu Darvish was an All Star last season for the Padres but his 7-4 record and 3.38 ERA in 16 starts covering 101 1/3 innings wasn't quite enough to get him back to the Mid-Summer Classic for a second straight year (and sixth time overall). Of course, given that the 35-year-old Japanese RH tanked badly in the 2nd half of 2021 after his trip to the All Star Game, Darvish may be feeling a bit relieved that he wasn't chosen to go to Los Angeles next week. Darvish will get his 17th start of the season tonight and it will come at home against the D-Backs and opposite another former All Star in LH Madison Bumgarner. Despite Petco Park's reputation as a pitcher's paradise, Bumgarner has rarely performed well here, going 5-11 with a 4.70 ERA in 23 career appearances (22 starts) covering 132 innings in San Diego. The D-Backs are 1-7 in the last eight meetings with the Padres and 7-20 in the last 27 at Petco. They are also 3-6 in Bumgarner's last nine starts as well. Take the Padres. |
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07-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -158 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals over the Cincinnati Reds. Hunter Greene will start for Cincy tonight, and the Reds have won just 4 of his 17 starts (including 0-8 his last eight on the road). That doesn't bode well for the Reds tonight against a St Louis team which will start RH Andre Pallante. The rookie will be making his second start vs. the Reds, and he shut them out over 5 1/3 innings when he made his home debut back on June 10. And he's been at his best at home this season, as he has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP here, at Busch Stadium. It's true that St. Louis comes into this weekend series having lost 10 of its last 15 games. But it was an underdog in 12 of those 15, as it went up against two of the NL's best in the Dodgers and Braves, and also played seven games against the Phillies. The Reds, of course, are not close to the caliber of those clubs, as they're tied for the 3rd worst record in baseball. The Cards are 78-42 their last 120 as a favorite, including 30-13 (+8.9 net games) this season. Take St. Louis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-15-22 | Orioles v. Rays -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. The hottest team in the league is the Baltimore Orioles, whose winning streak has now grown to 10 games. But before we hand the O's a World Series trophy -- or even a Wild Card ticket for that matter -- we must keep in mind that they've been beating up on two of the most dysfunctional teams in the league over the past week. The O's swept the Angels over four games last weekend and then headed to Chicago for a couple of wins over the 34-55 Cubs Tuesday and Wednesday. Now comes a real test against the team which has had the Orioles' number lately more than any other. Tampa Bay is an amazing 29-9 against the Orioles over the past three seasons, and the situation gets even more lopsided when looking the meetings here at Tropicana Field where the Rays are 15-1 in the last 16. If the O's can come out of these last three games before the break with their streak intact, then we can say that they are a real threat in the AL East. Tonight, they'll face RH Luis Patino, who makes his return from the 60-day injured list. Baltimore will counter with Tyler Wells. The Rays are 39-18 (+16.2 net games) at home when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, and 139-81 (+38.8 net games) vs righties. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -106 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners' 10-game win streak has catapulted them into Playoff contention, as they're 47-42. But don't sleep on the Texas Rangers, who are only 4.5 games back, at 41-45. The Rangers have been led by their southpaw, Martin Perez, who was named to this year's American League All-Star team. Perez has been nothing short of sensational, as he's 7-2 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Even better: the Rangers have won 12 of his last 13 starts. And he has a career 3.59 ERA vs. Seattle in 23 starts, while his teams have gone 14-9 in those games. Perez will match up against Marco Gonzales, who has a 5-9 record, with a 3.24 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the season. We'll take Texas and go against a Seattle team which is 8-13 (minus 5.2 net games) vs. lefty starters this season (compared to 39-29 (plus 12.0 net games) vs. righties). Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-13-22 | Padres -157 v. Rockies | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -157 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. It seemed to many that the exclusion of Joe Musgrove from the NL All Star roster in 2021 was a huge snub -- especially given that the Padres RH threw a no-hitter in his second start of the season. Well, Musgrove doesn't have to wait any longer to be called an All Star as the 29-year-old was a no-brainer selection this year on the strength of his incredible first-half numbers. You could certainly argue that only one other NL starting pitcher -- LA's Tony Gonsolin -- had a better first half as Musgrove has logged an 8-2 record with a 2.09 ERA in 15 starts covering 99 innings. Start number 16 will come tonight in a place where many starters go to get humbled -- Colorado's Coors Field. Musgrove, however, has not minded the thin air in Denver that much as in two starts here covering 13 innings, he is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Musgrove's teams (San Diego and Pittsburgh) have gone 4-1 in his last five starts vs. the Rockies going back to August 31, 2019. Take the Padres. |
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07-13-22 | Orioles v. Cubs -120 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight's pitching match-up will be southpaw Justin Steele for the Cubs and righty Spenser Watkins for the Orioles. The Orioles are 8-13 behind Watkins, including 0-3 in his interleague starts. And his ERA in those three interleague games is 10.12. Take the Chicago Cubs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-13-22 | Mariners v. Nationals +103 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Seattle Mariners. Last year, Chris Flexen's Mariners were 22-9 when he was on the hill, and he led the majors (in Las Vegas) in the all-important betting category of "Money Won" in the games he started. But 2022 has been a different story. Seattle is 6-10 in his starts, including 1-8 as an underdog of +155 or less. Flexen will match-up against Josiah Gray, who comes into this game off one of his best outings of his career. Last Wednesday, Gray gave up 2 runs and 4 hits over 6 innings, and struck out 11 Phillies (a career high), in a 3-2 Nationals win. Take Washington. |
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07-12-22 | Orioles v. Cubs -118 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are on an 8-game win streak. But that streak will be tested tonight with RH Jordan Lyles going to the mound. After all, Lyles has a 5.89 ERA on the road this season, while the Orioles have won just 4 of his last 14 starts. And in his last two starts vs. the Cubs, he gave up 14 runs over 4 2/3 innings, while his team lost by scores of 10-4 and 11-3. Lyles' teams are a wallet-breaking 8-23 in interleague games, including 1-9 his last 10. Lyles will match up against Cubs RH Adrian Sampson, who will make his fourth start of the season. His first three were against the Brewers, Red Sox and Cardinals. And Chicago won 2 of the 3 despite being big underdogs in each. Sampson has a respectable 3.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. Take the Cubs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-12-22 | Mets v. Braves -150 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. The Mets drew first blood in this all-important series between the two NL East powers and now the Braves will try to answer behind rookie RHP Spencer Strider. The 23-year-old only made two relief appearances in 2021 but Strider now finds himself in the Braves rotation in his second season in the Majors and if he keeps pitching the way he has been, Atlanta will keep putting Strider out there every five or six days. In 19 appearances -- eight starts -- Strider is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in just under 66 innings. If Strider had enough innings to qualify in the starter rankings, his 13.97 strikeouts per game would put him at the top of the league in that category. Strider had a bad beat in his last start, shutting out the Cards over six innings while allowing just two hits with 12 strikeouts and only two walks in a 3-2 St. Louis victory. This will be Strider's first career game vs. the Mets. Meanwhile, New York's David Peterson has made five prior starts vs. Atlanta, and has compiled a 5.47 ERA. We played on the Mets (and won) last night, as our NL East Game of the Month. But even with their victory on Monday, they're just 2-4 in the last six meetings with the Braves in Atlanta. And they're 28-25 (minus 4.7 net games) off a win this season (compared to 25-8 off a loss). Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-22 | Mets +108 v. Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 108 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. The first place Mets come into Atlanta for a huge three-game series which could go a long way towards determining the team which sits atop the NL East division come October. The Mets were happy to get Max Scherzer back in the rotation last week after he missed the entire month of June with an injury. Scherzer faced the Reds in Cincinnati last Tuesday and pitched like he hadn't missed a beat -- although he was held to a pitch count of around 80 in a very close game. The key stat for Scherzer's previous start was that he struck out 11 Reds over six innings. Look for the 37-year-old RH to get stretched out a bit in his second start back tonight. This will be Scherzer's first start of the season vs. the Braves, but he has some solid -- though not spectacular -- numbers against them in his career. In 27 games -- 25 starts -- vs. the Braves, Scherzer is 10-9 with a 3.88 ERA. Importantly, the Mets are 24-8 off a loss this season, and 19-15 (+4.3 net games) in competitively-priced contests with odds between +125 and -125. In contrast, the Braves are 10-17 in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125, including 2-8 here, at home. And the road team is also 4-2 in the last six meetings between these division rivals. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-10-22 | Giants v. Padres -115 | Top | 12-0 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. This matchup will pit two southpaws -- Alex Wood and Mackenzie Gore -- against one another. These two pitchers also faced off back on May 22, and Gore got the better of Wood, as San Diego won that game, 10-1. Gore went six innings, and allowed just 1 run on 3 hits, while he struck out six Giants. Meanwhile, Wood was bombed for five runs on eight hits, and two walks, over three innings. San Diego is a solid 20-10 this season vs. lefty starters. And it's 5-0 behind Gore in daytime game. The Padres have been installed as a slight favorite, which bodes well for the home team, as San Francisco is 3-12 its last 15 as a road underdog. And Wood's teams are a wallet-busting 14-27 (minus 8.7 net games) as an underdog with him on the mound, and 19-27 (minus 16.0 net games) in his daytime starts. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-09-22 | Rays -148 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds brought 2017 first round draft pick Hunter Greene up to the Majors this Spring after just three seasons in the Minors. Despite a few flashes of brilliance, you have to wonder if they didn't rush Greene along too quickly. In 16 starts, the 22-year-old RHP is 3-10 with a 6.01 ERA and league-leading 22 home runs allowed in just over 79 innings and the Reds have lost each of his last five starts coming in. Despite the struggles, Greene will get start number 17 this afternoon at home against the Rays and RH Drew Rasmussen. After shining brightly for Tampa in 2021 once he came over from the Brewers, Rasmussen is having another solid campaign this season with a 5-3 record, 3.30 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts covering just under 63 innings. This will be Rasmussen's first career start vs. the Reds, but he has a 2-0 record in 11 interleague games -- including four starts. And the Rays are also 6-0 behind him when favored -150 (or higher). Despite their loss last night, the Rays are 38-18 in their last 56 interleague games. And they're 61-34 (+21.1 net games) in daytime affairs. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |