Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-17 | Michigan State +5 v. Michigan | 57-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. |
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02-07-17 | Blazers -125 v. Mavs | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Dallas is in a tough spot. The Mavericks just played in Denver's high altitude last night and lost by 23 points. Wesley Matthews limped off the floor in that game so he might not play today. The Mavericks have won only once in 10 tries when playing without rest this season. Portland is in short revenge having lost 108-104 to the Mavericks at home this past Friday. All-Star Damian Lillard was outplayed in that game by unheralded Yogi Ferrell. That's not going to happen again.
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02-07-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina -7 | 90-86 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has won four in a row. The Gamecocks rank No. 1 defensively in the SEC. They can easily keep Alabama in check. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in the league offensively. Alabama is reeling from a bad loss to in-state rival Auburn. The Tide has failed to cover in 12 of its last 17 SEC games.
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02-06-17 | Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 74-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
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02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves OVER 205 | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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02-05-17 | Colorado +7 v. California | 66-77 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
A tough schedule and tough luck made things rough in the early going for Colorado. The Buffaloes started 0-7 in the Pac-12. But four of those losses came by three or fewer points. Now things are turning around for the Buffaloes, winners of three in a row and getting outstanding play from senior guard Derrick White. The Buffaloes are catching an inflated spread here and worth taking. Cal has covered just one of its last six games while going 5-10 ATS at home this season.
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02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe.
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02-04-17 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 224.5 | 106-109 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense. |
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02-04-17 | Portland v. BYU -19.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss.
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02-04-17 | Magic v. Hawks -7.5 | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
You have to go back to the day after Christmas to find the last time Orlando won consecutive games. I see a big letdown in store here for the Magic following their 102-94 home win against Toronto Friday night. That victory was just Orlando's third in its last 11 games and fifth in its past 19 games. This is the first time in three weeks the Magic are playing without rest. Orlando averages fewer than 100 points a game. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively. The Hawks have been inconsistent, but should be motivated following a 113-108 win at Houston two days ago when they came from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. A loss to the lowly Magic would just give that victory back. Atlanta has covered the last two times it was laying more than seven points. Saturday Free Play Jazz minus 7 1/2 hosting Hornets The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah.
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02-04-17 | San Jose State +11 v. New Mexico | 78-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
San Jose State has finished last the past three seasons since joining the Mountain West Conference. But the Spartans are much improved this season already exceeding last year's win total. The Spartans are keyed by perhaps the best player in the conference - power forward Brandon Clarke. The 6-foot-8 Clarke leads the Mountain West in scoring at 23.3 points a game. He also tops the conference in field goal percentage and blocked shots while ranking in the top five in rebounding. The Lobos are dealing with a cluster injury problem down two starters and a key reserve. One of those out is Tim Williams, the Lobos' second-leading scorer at 17.8 points. New Mexico has been plagued by sloppy ball handling committing 33 turnovers in its last two games. The Lobos are usually overvalued at home, too. They've failed to cover in five of their last six home contests.
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02-04-17 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -10.5 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73. |
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02-04-17 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Southern Miss | 64-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
This line opened short. Western Kentucky is more consistent than Southern Mississippi and averages seven more points per game. The Golden Eagles are hampered by their poor shooting - under 40 percent from the field. This also is a letdown spot for the Golden Eagles after they stunned Marshall, 91-76, at home on Thursday.
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02-04-17 | Elon +5.5 v. College of Charleston | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
College of Charleston is a letdown spot after getting revenge Thursday nipping UN Wilmington, 67-66, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog. Elon has won five in a row and has covered eight of its last nine games. The Phoenix are especially tough as a road 'dog covering 16 of the last 21 in that capacity.
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02-04-17 | William & Mary +1.5 v. Towson | 80-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
William & Mary averages eight more points than Towson State. The Tribe is on a nice roll winning and covering the past four times in blowout fashion. The Tribe has covered in six of their last eight visits to Towson State. Towson State just edged Drexel, 104-103, in overtime on Thursday. This is a short turnaround from that huge win.
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02-03-17 | Bucks v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The Bucks are averaging just 92 points during regulation in their last three games. Some of their young stars are showing signs of hitting the wall nearing All-Star break. The Nuggets are forced to be more defensive conscious. Leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury. Denver loses much of its free throw percentage with Gallinari out. Gallinari shoots 88.7 percent from the foul line. Nikola Jokic has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain. He's expected to play here, but be on a minutes restriction. Swingman and sparkplug Will Barton has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, too, but probably isn't going to be 100 percent. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is back for Denver, but he's one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA. |
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02-03-17 | St. Peter's +9 v. Monmouth | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points. |
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02-02-17 | Warriors -8 v. Clippers | Top | 133-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers got their mojo back by rolling past the Suns on Wednesday night. But the absence of Chris Paul will really be felt in this matchup. The Clippers don't have enough firepower to keep within single digits of the Warriors. Certainly the Warriors aren't going to bury LA by 46 points like they did on Saturday, but they still are vastly superior especially when playing well. And the Warriors are playing well winning 15 of their last 17 games with 10 of their last 11 victories coming by double-digits. Stephen Curry is on fire scoring 82 points in his last two games on 29 of 43 shooting from the floor and 20 of 30 from 3-point range. The Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight consecutive times. They will get their share of crowd support, too, in LA.
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02-02-17 | UAB -5 v. UTEP | 59-63 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham's class difference should prove itself here. UAB has won seven of its last eight and is 7-2 in Conference USA. UTEP is coming off a surprising 91-68 road win against Marshall this past Saturday. That was just the third time the Miners have covered in their last 11 games. They are 1-5 ATS during their past six home games.
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02-02-17 | Portland State +4 v. Idaho | 72-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
Idaho upset Montana as seven-point road 'dogs in overtime this past Saturday. Now the Vandals are home where they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games. Portland State averages 14 more points per game than Idaho. The Vikings are off back-to-back losses the latter coming to Sacramento State in overtime. The Vandals should prove tough in this spot. They've covered six of the last seven times when going against an opponent with a winning home record.
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02-02-17 | Santa Clara -5 v. Portland | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row.
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02-02-17 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho State -5 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
What does it tell you that the oddsmaker has installed Idaho State, the last-place team in the Big Sky Conference, as a decent-sized favorite against Northern Arizona? It tells me Idaho State is the right side here. The Bengals are in circle-the-wagons mode, have an excellent player in Ethan Telfair and catch Northern Arizona in a bad situational spot. The Lumberjacks just hosted Northern Colorado and North Dakota. Both were revenge games for the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona won both games winning straight-up as six-point 'dogs to Northern Colorado and 9 1/2-point 'dogs to North Dakota this past Saturday. Northern Arizona takes on Big Sky leader Weber State on the road this Saturday. So this is both a letdown and look-ahead spot for Northern Arizona.
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02-02-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Rockets | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Hawks aren't going to go quietly here after getting whipped 116-93 by Miami last night. Look for the Hawks to ramp up their intensity level. Atlanta is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing without rest. Houston has had problems with the Hawks in the past losing the past six times against them while covering only once. The Hawks beat the Rockets by 15 points in their first meeting this season. The Rockets aren't playing as well as they were before when they went 20-2. They are just 5-7 during their last 12 games. Houston has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. James Harden hasn't been 100 percent either dealing with a sore knee. His poor shooting - 6 of 26 from the floor the past two games - reflects that.
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02-01-17 | Clippers -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak. Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul. The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points. The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them. Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times. |
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02-01-17 | Florida State +2 v. Miami (Fla) | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a stop-the-pain game for Florida State, which has dropped two in a row. Miami is 3-14 ATS as a favorite - 1-8 ATS as home chalk - and coming off a huge 77-62 win over then sixth-ranked North Carolina. Florida State showed some positive signs in the second half of its loss to Syracuse in its last game. The Seminoles present a pressure defense that should cause problems to the Hurricanes, who ranked 260th in assist-to-turnover ratio.
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02-01-17 | Hawks -125 v. Heat | 93-116 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami is hot, but Atlanta is the better team. The Hawks have proven that twice already this season beating the Heat in both meetings by three and eight points, respectively. The Heat have won eight in a row, but their last four victories have been against the Nets, Pistons, Bulls and Nets again. This is a step up. Miami also is playing for the fourth time in six days, while the Hawks have had two full days to recover from their four overtime win against the Knicks this past Sunday. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.
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02-01-17 | Pacers v. Magic +3 | 98-88 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into the Pacers as road chalk. Indiana not only has failed to cover the past seven times in that role, but lost straight-up each time. Orlando has shown signs of improvement beating the Raptors on Sunday and falling to the improved Timberwolves in overtime on Monday. Both of those games were on the road. Now the Magic are home. It's Frank Vogel's first home game against the former team he coached. Evan Fournier, the Magic's leading scorer, also is back after missing seven games with a foot injury. He played 23 minutes against the Timberwolves and should be less rusty here.
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01-31-17 | Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests.
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01-31-17 | Kings v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 83-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The spot isn't ideal for either team setting up an under play. The Kings are concluding an eight-game road trip. This is their fourth game in five days and second in two nights. They are not going to look to run with Houston. The Kings will want to slow tempo and try to patiently feed DeMarcus Cousins inside. Cousins is having a huge season, but the Kings do not have a reliable second scoring option with Rudy Gay out with a ruptured Achilles' tendon. Houston just got back from five straight road games. So the Rockets might not have their full focus. There is a strong below the total history in this type of situation for Houston with the under cashing 22 of the last 29 times the Rockets have played at home following being away from seven or more days. The Kings have been playing underrated defense, too, surrendering 107 or fewer points during regulation in seven of their last eight games.
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01-30-17 | Cavs -4 v. Mavs | 97-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
In a word, no Dallas can't upset San Antonio and Cleveland on back-to-back days. The Cavaliers are playing better now. Dallas is playing better, too, after a 4-17 start. But the Mavericks don't have near the Cavaliers' talent being two-to-three levels behind them. Deron Williams isn't likely to play leaving the short-handed Dallas backcourt in the hands of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Neither is an NBA starting caliber guard. Cleveland buried Dallas, 128-90, when the teams last met on Nov. 25.
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01-30-17 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 210.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Frank Vogel still hasn't been able to turn around Orlando's bad defense. The Magic have surrendered at least 113 points in six of their last eight games. |
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01-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -13 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests.
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01-29-17 | Mavs v. Spurs OVER 195 | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
The Spurs have been a strong over team going above the total in 13 of their last 16 games. However, San Antonio scored just 103 points in a 119-103 road loss to the Pelicans on Friday. Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker had just gotten back into the lineup and were rusty. They should be much better now and the Spurs will be motivated to put that loss to the Pelicans behind them with a big scoring effort. San Antonio is weaker defensively with David Lee at center replacing injured Pau Gasol. |
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01-29-17 | Rockets v. Pacers UNDER 226 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Considering the circumstances and matchup, this total is too high. Houston is an up-tempo, high-energy team that launches more 3-pointer than any team. But this marks the end of the Rockets' five-game, nine-day road swing so energy could be lacking. The Pacers also have the necessary perimeter defense to slow down Houston ranking fifth in 3-point defense. The Rockets might be without Eric Gordon, their second-leading scorer, for a third consecutive game. He's dealing with a sore back. Trevor Ariza, the Rockets' fourth-leading scorer, is mired in an 8-for-32 shooting slump during the last four games. Indiana has a reputation as a high-scoring team. But the Pacers are averaging 102.4 points in regulation during their last five games and rank just 14th in scoring.
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01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances.
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01-28-17 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 232 | Top | 123-112 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
Even with these two high-scoring teams it's going to be tough to go over a total this high. The Nuggets are going to be without Nikola Jokic, who has been an absolute monster. He has a left hip strain and is out. Denver also could be missing point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. He's sat out the last three games with back problems. The teams just met on Thursday and the Nuggets won, 127-120, in Denver. Ancient Jameer Nelson filled in for Mudiay and logged 41:47. He's going to be in trouble trying to handle the pace if Mudiay can't play and he has to log major minutes like that again. This is the team's fourth meeting. So they certainly are familiar with each other, a plus for the under. The Suns are in a triple-revenge spot having lost the first three games of the seasons series to the Nuggets so their intensity level should be raised. It's also the sixth different venue in a row for the Suns so that's another plus for the under.
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01-28-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Heat | 103-116 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for the Pistons, who haven't played since Monday when they lost 109-104 at home to the Kings. The Pistons have been pointing to this game since. Miami is off an upset of the Bulls in Chicago last night. The Heat accomplished that without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable here. The Heat have lost six of the past eight times when playing without rest. The Pistons have matched up well to the Heat winning by nine and 23 points.
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01-28-17 | Kings v. Hornets -7 | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Despite losing Rudy Gay, the Kings have proven tough on the road in their last three games upsetting the Pistons as a seven-point 'dog, stunning the Cavaliers as a 10 1/2-point 'dog and covering as a 4 1/2-point 'dog in a 115-111 overtime loss to the Pacers last night. But now the Kings have reached the end of their long road swing. This marks their sixth away matchup in nine days. It's too much of a leap of faith to believe the Kings - traditionally a horrible road club - can have much left for Charlotte. The Hornets desperately need this game. They've lost three in a row and take off for a three-game West Coast road trip following this game where they will take on the Trail Blazers, Warriors and Jazz. Charlotte has dropped its past seven road games. Hence, the importance of this home matchup for the Hornets. Charlotte has won four of its last six home contests with one of the losses coming to the Warriors. During this span, the Hornets have defeated the Thunder by 11, Trail Blazers by 22 and Raptors by 35. So they're certainly capable of covering this mid-size number against the lottery-bound Kings.
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01-28-17 | Eastern Washington v. Montana State UNDER 154 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
These two teams met earlier this season and Eastern Washington won, 82-64. That's a combined 146 points and Eastern Washington shot 60.4 percent from the floor. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times they've met with the average score being 138 points during the last 13 games in the series. Both teams have improved defensively compared to last season while not being as good offensively. So this total is set too high. |
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01-28-17 | Providence +8.5 v. Marquette | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Providence has played a tough schedule and is at its best as a road 'dog covering 13 of the last 18 times in that role. Marquette is in a prime letdown spot after its dramatic home victory against top-ranked Villanova on Tuesday. Marquette historically is bad in this role, too, going 5-13 ATS at home versus a sub .500 opponent and is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when laying between seven and 12 1/2 points.
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01-28-17 | Kansas State -110 v. Tennessee | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
This is mostly a fade against Tennessee following the Volunteers' big upset victory in their last game against Kentucky. The Vols start three freshmen and are prone to a letdown in my view more than most teams off a huge victory. |
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01-27-17 | Green Bay v. Oakland -7.5 | 80-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Look for Oakland to bounce back from an 88-67 loss to Wright State. The Golden Grizzlies have too strong of an offense to have another bad shooting game. Oakland averages 10 more points than its opponent when playing at home. The Golden Grizzlies also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 games versus foes with a winning record. Green Bay is having a good season, but have a losing road record. The Phoenix have been outscored by six points per game on the road. Oakland scored 111 points in each of its games against Green Bay last season winning by 16 at Green Bay and 18 at home. So this spread isn't out of line.
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01-27-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto. Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. |
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01-27-17 | Harvard -6 v. Cornell | 77-71 | Push | 0 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Harvard is playing well winning nine of its last 10 games. The Crimson have covered in each of their last six games. |
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01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves -3 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are playing their best ball going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Tom Thibodeau has improved Minnesota's defense and Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are legitimate stars. The Pacers have been horrid on the road covering only 27 percent of their away games. This is the Pacers' seventh different venue in a row. Indiana may be short-handed in the backcourt, too, with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey each questionable with injuries.
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01-25-17 | UCLA -5.5 v. USC | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.
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01-25-17 | Kings v. Cavs -11 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings. So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons. The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. |
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01-24-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame +1 | 71-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
This is the time Notre Dame finally beats Virginia. The Irish are home. That can't be underestimated. They are 12-0 on their homecourt. |
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01-24-17 | Clippers -3 v. 76ers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I can't see the 76ers beating the Clippers without Joel Embiid, who is out with knee soreness. The 76ers had won eight of nine, but lost to the Hawks on Saturday, 110-93, when Embiid was out. Philadelphia isn't nearly as good without Embiid, the likely rookie of the year award winner. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS when Embiid has sat out this season. The Clippers are learning to live without Chris Paul. They upset the Hawks in Atlanta last night, 115-105, and don't want to give that great victory away with a loss to the lowly 76ers, a team they have beaten the past nine times by a victory margin of 21.9 points. The Clippers should give a full effort since they don't play against until Saturday when they play at the Warriors. The Clippers should get an added boost as Blake Griffin is expected to play after missing the last 18 games with a knee injury.
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01-23-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | 71-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Arlington averages 86 points at home. That's a big reason why the Mavericks are 7-0 at home. They have too much offense and rebounding for Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are playing in their second road game in three days. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 Sun Belt Conference games and can't be trusted on the road where they have been inconsistent.
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01-23-17 | Kings v. Pistons -5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The Pistons have won their last six home games and have short revenge having lost to the Kings at Sacramento, 100-94, less than two weeks ago. Detroit is playing well and should have its full focus not playing against until Saturday. The Kings are playing in their third road game in four days. They are down their second-best player, Rudy Gay. Despite beating the Pistons in the first matchup, the Kings are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Detroit.
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01-22-17 | Suns v. Raptors -11.5 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Toronto is 6-7 in its last 13 games and off a 113-78 embarrassing loss to the Hornets on the road this past Friday. That was Toronto's lowest-scoring game of the season. I see the Raptors bouncing back in a big way against the Suns, who are in a rare fat-and-happy state. The Suns just nipped the Knicks, 107-105, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. They return to the desert for a four-game homestand following this matchup. Despite only scoring 78 points against the Hornets, the Raptors are the third-highest scoring team in the league. Phoenix allows the second-most points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a foe with a losing road record. They also are 7-3 ATS following a SU loss. The Raptors have added revenge motivation, too. The Suns defeated them 99-91 on Dec. 29. This marks the Suns' third road game in four days. It's also an early start time for the Suns.
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01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 224.5 | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a rare day game. It's especially different for Golden State starting at 9:05 in the morning West Coast time. That's a plus for the under. It's easy to think of offense when thinking about the Warriors with Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. But Golden State is No. 1 in defense per 100 possession. The under has cashed in 11 of Golden State's last 12 road games. Orlando ranks 25th offensively. The Magic have failed to break the 98-point barrier in five of their last nine games. The Warriors just defeated the Rockets on the road on Friday night They played at Miami on Monday and at Charlotte on Wednesday. So it wouldn't be surprising if some of the Warriors' stars were rested, or had their minutes greatly reduced here. |
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01-21-17 | UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 105-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge. |
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01-21-17 | Northern Iowa +3 v. Southern Illinois | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
It's been a down year for Northern Iowa. That's for sure. But the Panthers finally have a little momentum winning two in a row. They still can play defense allowing 67.3 points per game and are well-coached. This is a prideful team. I'm going to ride them here in a 'dog role. |
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01-21-17 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Maybe it was celebrating Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming the first Milwaukee All-Star starter in 31 years. Maybe it was because the Bucks are young. Maybe it was because Orlando was long overdue. Whatever the case, the Bucks were buried 112-96 by the Magic in Orlando Friday. That was a bad loss for the Bucks and their coach, Jason Kidd, let them know holding a closed locker room meeting for more than a half hour following that defeat. The Bucks hold a talent edge against the Heat and I expect Milwaukee to play much better today. The Bucks have won and covered in seven of their last nine games against Miami, including defeating the Heat, 116-108, eight days ago at home. Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker - who has scored 20 or more points six times in the last eight games - give Milwaukee two of the three best players on the court. The Bucks also have a frontcourt scoring advantage on the Heat despite Miami having Hassan Whiteside and a stronger bench courtesy of Greg Monroe and former Heat Michael Beasley. The Bucks have proven themselves on the road as since Christmas they have beaten the Pistons, Bulls, Knicks and Spurs away from Bradley Center. All of those teams are better than the Heat.
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01-21-17 | Cincinnati v. Tulane OVER 138 | 78-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm not impressed with Tulane's defense as it has allowed 80 or more points in all but one of its last six games. The Green Wave do rank first in the AAC in tempo, though. That's a good over combination. |
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01-21-17 | Michigan State +5.5 v. Indiana | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
I like Michigan State as a 'dog here. Indiana already has lost SU at home to Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans have been idle for a week so they will be well rested and prepared under Tom Izzo. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan State by more than four points since 2013. |
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01-20-17 | Jazz -5 v. Mavs | 112-107 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Not only does Utah have the No. 1 defense and Dallas the worst offense, but the spot highly favors the Jazz. Utah last played on Monday. The Mavericks played last night losing 99-95 to Miami on the road. Dallas is 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS when playing in the second of back-to-back games. This also marks Dallas' third game in four days. The Mavericks are ill equipped to handle this kind of load with a veteran, over-the-hill roster. The Jazz are playing at a high level having won four in a row. Not only do the Jazz have the stingiest defense in the league, but their offense has picked up. They are averaging 107.5 points during their winning streak helped by having George Hill back at point guard.
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01-20-17 | Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
You must have a great offense and outstanding 3-point defense to beat the Rockets. The Warriors have both of that leading the NBA in scoring and 3-point defense. They also have the superior roster. Add this up plus throw in a revenge factor and a Rockets fatigue factor and the Warriors should cover this mid-sized spread. Houston is playing for the third time in four days. The Rockets may be without third-leading scorer Ryan Anderson. The power forward has missed the past two games due to illness. The Rockets edged Golden State, 132-127, in overtime last month in the team's first meeting. But if the Warriors are on their "A" game no team can beat them. Golden State has won nine of its last 10. In their last two games, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers by 35 points and Thunder by 21 points forcing 10 turnovers from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder could make just 8 of 28 shots from 3-point range, an ominous sign for the Rockets, who heavily rely on shooting 3-pointers and playing up-tempo. Up next for the Warriors are games against lottery teams the Magic and Heat. So the Warriors' full focus should be on display.
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01-20-17 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Akron | 63-70 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The last four games between these two teams has been decided by four points or less and Eastern Michigan has covered each of them. Eastern Michigan is somewhat under the radar with an excellent big man, 6-foot-10 James Thompson. He's third in the MAC in rebounds and is second in field goal percentage. Eastern Michigan has the experience, height and good line value to get the cover here if not win outright. |
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01-19-17 | Wolves v. Clippers -135 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
Minus Blake Griffin, the Clippers now are without Chris Paul. This will be their first game since losing Paul to a thumb injury on Monday. The Clippers haven't played since. I see them being well-prepared here having had two full days to game plan knowing Paul won't be available. Often times teams play well in their first game after losing a star player. The Clippers have a deep backcourt with J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton. Rivers is having the best season of his career and Redick is averaging nearly 20 points during the last seven games. LA is playing well having won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The opponent is the 14-28 Timberwolves, who are playing in their third consecutive road game. Minnesota is 5-15 SU, 8-12 ATS on the road this season. The Clippers have held their last five opponents to less than 99 points a game. DeAndre Jordan gives LA a needed defensive presence to combat Karl-Anthony Towns. Jordan is No. 2 in rebounding in the league and ranks eighth in blocked shots. |
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01-19-17 | Davidson v. La Salle UNDER 155 | 83-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
The total opened too high here. LaSalle hasn't broken 69 points the past four times playing Davidson. There hasn't been more than 146 points scored during the past four meetings between the two schools. |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
Optimism is fading for the Kings as they've endured a 1-5 homestand in their new state-of-the-art arena. This is the last game of the Kings' extended homestand before they embark on an eight-game road swing. So this matchup is absolutely crucial for the Kings. Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven games. But the Pacers also have failed to cover 13 of their 18 road contests this season and their recent success isn't as impressive as it looks on closer inspection. Let's first start with the Kings. In four of their last five games, they've played the Clippers, Warriors, Cavaliers and Thunder. They played those teams tough, but lost. Their lone home win during their past five games came against the Pistons. The Pacers are far closer to the Pistons than they are to the other teams the Kings lost to. None of the six teams the Pacers beat during their 6-1 streak holds a winning record. The Pacers played five of their past seven games at home. But Indiana is one of those teams with a huge home/road split - 16-5 SU home, 5-14 SU road. The Pacers' lone loss during this span came in London against Denver by 28 points. It occurred six days ago. That's significant. Having made numerous overseas trips I know it often takes more than a week to get your legs and internal clock working properly. Now the Pacers are playing at their fourth straight different venue and third different time zone traveling to the West Coast. Don't read much into Indiana's last game, a 98-95 home win against New Orleans on Monday. The Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a hip injury during the middle of the third quarter. Still, the Pelicans could have won if they didn't miss nine of their last 10 shots. It's another red flag for the Pacers that their bench was outscored 51-19 by the Pelicans. Indiana got lucky missing Davis for 1 1/2 quarters. If Davis isn't the best big man in basketball than DeMarcus Cousins is. Rudy Gay is back healthy, too, for the Kings. Sacramento has had the Pacers' number lately, too, winning the past four meetings and covering five of the last six in the series.
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01-18-17 | Missouri State v. Indiana State +1.5 | 73-68 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Big revenge spot here for Indiana State, which lost in overtime to Missouri State on New Year's Eve. This has been a home team series with the host going 6-1-1 ATS. Missouri State is playing on the road for the second time in four days. The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS when playing an opponent with an above .500 record at home. The Bears also have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've been favored.
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01-17-17 | San Diego State -5 v. UNLV | Top | 64-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. |
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01-17-17 | Rockets v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
I understand the risk of trying to make an under work against the Houston Rockets of Mike D'Antoni. Only Golden State averages more points than the Rockets' 114.9. Houston launches 3-pointers like no other team and they don't wait to do it either. The flip side, however, is the Heat. They are averaging the second-fewest points in the league at 98.3. So we have a real contrast in tempo and style here. The situation, though, favors the Heat and a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker perceives. Miami just completed a six-game road trip that concluded on Friday. This is the Heat's first game since then. So they are going to have lots of energy. The Heat use that energy to play defense especially at home where they have scored fewer than 99 points in five of their past six games at American Airlines Arena. This opinion is further enforced with the under cashing in seven of Miami's last nine home games following a road trip of seven of more days. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is defensive-minded and no dummy. He knows his talent can't matchup athletically to the Rockets especially with promising youngsters Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson out. So the Heat are going to look inside to Hassan Whiteside and try to methodically pound inside against the Rockets while trying to take off as much clock as possible thus shortening the game. The Rockets are in flat spot. They just blew out the hapless Nets by scoring 137 points two days ago. The Rockets immediately fly back to Houston following this game for a home game against the Bucks on Wednesday. The Rockets then have a marquee home matchup against Golden State on Friday. So don't look for the Rockets to be going all out here, or extending any minutes to their starters. They also could be getting center Clint Capela back. He's been out since Dec. 17 with a broken bone in his leg. The Rockets would try to get Capela involved if he plays against this weak opponent and he figures to be rusty. Based on this situation, too, there's the possibility superstar James Harden could see fewer than normal minutes. That would be a bonus for the under. |
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01-16-17 | Green Bay +8.5 v. Valparaiso | 56-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I see value here with Green Bay, which is 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 Horizon League games. Valparaiso is down from last season. The Crusaders' adjusted defensive efficiency has dropped 95 places, their 3-point shooting percentage is down five percent and their block percentage has dropped 253 places. The Crusaders lack depth and have backcourt issues with more turnovers than assists. They also have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games
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01-16-17 | Blazers v. Wizards -3.5 | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Washington is red-hot at home winning 11 in a row at Verizon Center while going 10-1 ATS in those games. Portland is not a good road club losing 15 of 22 away from home. The Trail Blazers are 5-8 against Eastern Conference foes and are going to be bothered by this early East Coast starting time. The Trail Blazers' strength is their backcourt, but the Wizards match that with John Wall and Bradley Beal.
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01-15-17 | Thunder -120 v. Kings | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
The records show Oklahoma City to be 24-17 and Sacramento to be 16-23. The won-lost marks don't lie. The Thunder are a much superior team to the Kings. Oklahoma City isn't going to overlook, or let down, against the Kings either having lost to Sacramento the last time they met. Following this game, the Thunder are at the Clippers, Warriors and Jazz. The Thunder just lost to the Timberwolves on Friday playing one of their worst games. So this matchup is of great importance to Oklahoma City. As usual, Sacramento isn't playing well. The Kings are 2-6 in their last eight games and 1-4 in their last five home games. The excitement of playing in their new state-of-the-art arena has worn off. Matchup-wise a big key is rebounding. The Thunder have the third-best rebounding margin in the NBA while the Kings rank 23rd. The Thunder can dominated the boards, which in turns ignites their dangerous fast break headed by Russell Westbrook.
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01-15-17 | USC v. Colorado -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
At 0-4, Colorado is desperate to get its first Pac-12 victory. I see that happening here against a USC team minus injured big man Benny Boatwright and who plays much worse on the road. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Colorado had to play its first three conference games on the road and then drew fourth-ranked UCLA at home. The Buffaloes are 7-1 against USC since joining the Pac-12. They have covered five of the past times versus the Trojans.
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01-14-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5 | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Gonzaga has another powerhouse team. I believe the Zags are for real and a level higher than St. Mary's. I would lay single digits with the Zags at home against the Gaels. St. Mary's can't match the Bulldogs' scoring and height. The Zags have covered 13 of their last 16 conference games and 78 percent of their past 28 overall games. Gonzaga has balanced scoring and the height with five players 6-foot-10 or taller to key on St. Mary's big man Jock Lonsdale. |
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01-14-17 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 142 | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
This is the highest total for this series in a long time - and it's not justified. |
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01-13-17 | Hornets -5.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
It's weird to write this, but the 76ers are actually in a letdown spot after coming from 17 points down to nip the Knicks at the buzzer during their last game two days ago. That was Philly's 11th win of the season passing their victory total of a year ago. It also was the 76ers' second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Hornets are in stop-the-pain mode after three losses in a row with the last two occurring on the road against the Spurs and Rockets. Charlotte hasn't been in action since Tuesday. Maybe Nicolas Batum returns after missing the last two games with a knee injury. That would be a bonus, but I like the Hornets even if Batum doesn't play. This is a rare game when the 76ers' opponent is taking them fully serious and considering this an important game. That's the case with Charlotte. The Hornets are middle-of-the-road both offensively and defensively. They are well coached and are leading the NBA in forcing turnovers for a fourth straight season. They are two levels higher than the 76ers and won't lack motivation here.
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01-12-17 | Pistons v. Warriors OVER 218.5 | 107-127 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
The Warriors lead the league averaging better than 117 points per game. They have averaged 122 points in four of their last five games and get Klay Thompson back in the lineup. There were 222 points scored when these teams met last month. Detroit's defense has slipped. The Pistons have allowed 114 points are more in three of their last four games. The over has cashed in six of their last seven game
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01-12-17 | UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength. Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused.
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01-12-17 | Pacers v. Nuggets UNDER 225.5 | 112-140 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Both teams are rusty and playing in an unfamiliar surrounding and time zone as this game is in London. It's the first game in five days for the Pacers and Nuggets. Normally a team welcomes a couple of days rest this much into the season, but five days is way too much. The Nuggets are capable of much better defense and their coach, Mike Malone, knows it. The Nuggets' best offensive player, Danilo Gallinari, is dealing with a sore ankle and several Denver players are battling illness, including Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler. They should be able to play, but their effectiveness could be greatly reduced. |
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01-11-17 | Magic v. Clippers UNDER 209 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
Frank Vogel has gotten Orlando to play respectable defense where the team ranks 12th in fewest points allowed per game.. Vogel has really been stressing defense and wasn't happy with the Magic's 111-95 loss to the Lakers this past Sunday at LA. The Magic haven't played since remaining in LA now to play the Clippers. Expect an all-out defensive effort from them here. Orlando is weak offensively. Only three teams score fewer points per game than the Magic. The Clippers have clamped down defensively holding three of their last four opponents to fewer than 99 points.
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01-10-17 | Blazers -120 v. Lakers | Top | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
Considering their huge backcourt advantage and domination in the series, it's not asking too much for Portland to defeat the Lakers. The Trail Blazers have accomplished the task nine straight times, including the past five times at Staples Center. C.J. McCollum is playing his best ball averaging 31 points during his last eight games. Damian Lillard has been sharp since returning two games ago from an ankle injury. Swingman Allen Crabbe is coming off a career-high 30 points. Crabbe recorded that hitting 12 of 15 shots from the floor during the Trail Blazers' 125-124 overtime home loss to Detroit this past Sunday. The Trail Blazers want to redeem themselves from that loss. If they lose here to the Lakers they likely are looking at a three-game losing streak with the defending world champion Cavaliers on deck Wednesday. Portland coach Terry Stotts said he considers this a crucial game. The Lakers are a bit fat and happy with consecutive victories against a pair of likely lottery teams from the Eastern Conference, the Magic and Heat. Portland just hosted the Lakers this past Thursday and won, 118-109. Lillard and McCollum combined to score 48 points and dish off 17 assists. |
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01-09-17 | Troy State +6.5 v. Georgia State | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Troy is the more experienced and better team here. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. The Trojans played USC tough and is averaging nearly 80 points during their last five games. Troy also is a much better free throw shooting team than Georgia State, which is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Panthers are still trying to recover from losing several key players from a year ago.
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01-08-17 | Magic v. Lakers -125 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The Lakers are playing better with two victories in their last three games, including a 27-point blowout home win against the Heat in their last game two days ago. Now the Lakers are in line to treat their fans to a Sunday home win against a foe they should beat and will be highly motivated to beat. The lottery-bound Magic have a bottom-five offense and are traveling cross country following a tough seven-point home loss to the Rockets on Friday night. Orlando is 7-18-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Magic also have only covered once during their last eight road games versus the Lakers. The Lakers should be pumped after losing 109-90 to the Magic on Dec. 23. The Magic took advantage of the Lakers missing much-improved Julius Randle and finishing a seven-game, 12-day road swing. LA had nothing left in the tank for that matchup. They should have far more energy than the Magic this time around.
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01-08-17 | Pistons v. Blazers OVER 214.5 | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
The Pistons are averaging 112.6 points during their last three games. They certainly can take advantage of Portland's 28th-ranked defense. |
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01-08-17 | Wichita State v. Northern Iowa +10.5 | 80-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
OK, pile on Northern Iowa. The Panthers are just 5-9 and averaging a puny 63.8 points a game. Wichita State is coming off consecutive blowout home victories against Bradley and Drake. All of this, along with early market activity, has caused the Panthers to be undervalued here. Northern Iowa still plays outstanding defense. They are an excellent 'dog in this spot being home, well-coached and playing at their slow pace desperate for a conference victory. The Panthers are going to do everything it takes to control tempo here. This is a team that did win 23 games last season and knows how to win big games. Wichita State isn't so dominant on the road. The Shockers failed to cover in their lone Missouri Valley Conference away game beating Indiana State by eight as a 10 1/2-point favorite. Indiana State is worse than Northern Iowa. Only twice in the past 10 games against Wichita State have the Panthers lost by double-digits at home. The Shockers' non-home victories have come versus suspect defensive teams not elite opponents such as Michigan State and Louisville.
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01-07-17 | Jazz -3 v. Wolves | 94-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
Look for the Jazz to make it five straight victories against the Timberwolves. Utah is rested and plays far better defense than Minnesota giving up an average of 10 fewer points per game than Minnesota. |
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01-07-17 | Knicks v. Pacers -7 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
The timing is bad here for the Knicks playing for the third time in four days. The Knicks are off a grueling home-and-away series against the Bucks, who they beat 116-111, in Milwaukee last night. Star power forward Kristaps Porzingis returned from a three-game absence caused by an Achilles injury to help spark the Knicks. However, his minutes are likely to be limited playing without rest. The Knicks are careful with their prized young star. The Knicks catch the Pacers playing their best ball. Indiana is looking to win a season-best fifth game in a row. Indiana is averaging 117.5 points during its win streak. The Knicks are allowing 112.1 points during their last seven games. The Pacers have been bad on the road, but excellent at home winning 14 of 19 games. New York has lost eight in a row at Indiana.
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01-07-17 | Furman +9 v. Chattanooga | 64-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Tennessee Chattanooga hasn't been playing well this season. The Moccasins aren't a fast-paced team either. So it's not a big surprise they are terrible when installed as a mid-size favorite failing to cover the past eight times when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman, on the other hand, is very good in an underdog role especially in this spread range where the Paladins have covered the past six times when getting between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman has four starters back from last season and showed its competitiveness when stepping up losing by just six points to Michigan and Georgia as double-digit road 'dogs. The Paladins have covered the past four in this series winning twice straight-up and never losing by more than eight during this span. Furman has covered all four of its true road contests this season.
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01-07-17 | Youngstown State v. Wright State OVER 153.5 | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Youngstown State ranks 314th defensively. Wright State could score 90 here especially since it is playing more up-tempo under its new coach. The oddsmaker made this total lower than anticipated based on Wright State scoring only 55 points against Cleveland State, a much different foe than Youngstown State. The Penguins can get their share of points, too, thanks to guard Cameron Morse, who averages more than 22 points a game, and a pair of big men who each are making better than 58 percent of their field goals. The over has cashed five of the last seven times the teams have met.
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01-06-17 | Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
The Knicks should have beaten the Bucks at Madison Square Garden two days ago. They lost 105-104 when Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a jumper at the buzzer after he should have been called for violating a five-second rule. New York blew a 16-point lead in that game and have now lost six in a row. The Knicks lost that game minus their star power forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is their version of Antetokounmpo. Both are rising stars. Porzingis has missed the last three games with a sore Achilles. But he practiced on Thursday and I expect him to play today. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Knicks here in this circle-the-wagons, short revenge spot. The Knicks played well and hard against the Bucks Carmelo Anthony broke out of his shooting slump to score 30 points pull down 11 rebounds and dish off seven assists. The Knicks certainly are not outclassed here.
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01-06-17 | 76ers +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The Celtics escaped with just a one-point win when these teams last met. The 76ers didn't have Joel Embiid in that game either. The Celtics have been nothing special at home going 9-6 SU and 6-9 against the spread. |
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01-06-17 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 211 | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Both teams are well below average defensively and are fully rested having last been in action three days ago. That combination should produce a high octane, up-and-down game with a lot of scoring. Minnesota and Washington each rank among the bottom-five in defensive field goal percentage. The Timberwolves have allowed 112 or more points in five of their last nine road matchups. Washington has produced triple digits in 17 of its past 21 games. John Wall is coming off a huge December and Bradley Beal is healthy again and shooting well. The over has cashed in 13 of the Wizards' last 18 games. |
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01-05-17 | Suns v. Mavs -6 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Prideful, veteran and now healthy at last, Dallas is coming on. Dallas is 9-11 in its last 20 games after opening 2-13.
Dallas rolled past the Lakers and Wizards and lost by singe-digits to the Warriors in their last three games. The Suns are 4-16 on the road playing for the third in four days, while this is just the Mavericks' second game in six days. The Mavericks swept the Suns last season winning by an average of 13 points. This is an opponent they have the confidence and veteran savvy to handle - and cover a mid-size margin. |
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01-05-17 | Davidson +1.5 v. George Washington | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Sharp money has come on Davidson and I agree. The Wildcats have a strong recent history in this spread range covering eight of the last 10 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wildcats also have covered 29 of the last 41 times on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. George Washington has covered just one of its last seven home games. The Wildcats are highly motivated having lost straight-up as an 11-point home favorite against Richmond in their last game.
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01-05-17 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -160 | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Marshall has yet to lose at home this season. The Thundering Herd have always been tough at home covering 72 percent of their last 26 home contests. Marshall beat Old Dominion twice last season, including winning by 17 points at home on a short spread such as this one. The Monarchs have been having trouble shooting making less than 37 percent from the floor and just 61 percent from the free throw line. |
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01-04-17 | Thunder v. Hornets UNDER 209 | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Russell Westbrook leads the NBA in scoring and is averaging a triple-double. So it's easy to think of Oklahoma City as being a high-scoring, over-the-total team. Truth be told, though, the Thunder are far more of an under team. The under has cashed in 60 percent of their games this season. The under has cashed in seven of the Thunder's last nine road games. I see that pattern continuing here with Oklahoma City playing at Charlotte. The Hornets rank in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage. Westbrook is shooting 39.2 percent from the floor in Oklahoma City's losses. The Thunder opened as underdogs to the Hornets. Charlotte hasn't played good defense in its last two games - losses to the Cavaliers and Bulls. Charlotte coach Steve Clifford stresses defense and he called his team's defense soft after the latest loss. That stings his prideful team. So expect a strong, intense, defensive effort from the Hornets here. Charlotte has a number of versatile defenders to slow down Westbrook. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb either have very good quickness, or excellent length, to bother Westbrook. The Hornets are geared toward a half-court game, too. Oklahoma City is miscast as an offensive power because of Westbrook's extraordinary season. However, the under has cashed in 13 of Oklahoma City's last 17 games, including the past four. If you discount the Thunder surrendering 114 points to the Grizzlies - in a game in which the sizzling Grizzlies made 59.1 percent of their 3-point shots - Oklahoma City is giving up an average of 95 points in its last four games.
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01-03-17 | Grizzlies -3 v. Lakers | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are coming off their best December ever while the Lakers are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Marc Gasol may not play because of a sore ankle, but Mike Conley is back in the lineup. The well coached Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers 10 of the last 11 times. Memphis plays at the Clippers on Wednesday and at the Warriors on Friday so it can't afford to take a loss here. Memphis also has covered in 11 of its last 13 Western Conference games. The Grizzlies rank No. 2 defensively. They give up 13 fewer points per game than the Lakers. |
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01-02-17 | Pelicans v. Cavs UNDER 218.5 | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are down some key firepower in this matchup with Kyrie Irving ruled out. J.R. Smith already is out. The Pelicans have been playing better defense giving up an average of 95.2 points in their last four games. The under has cashed the past six times the Pelicans have played a team from the Eastern Conference.
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12-31-16 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
There are plenty of reasons why I like the Grizzlies to beat the Kings starting with that they are the much superior defensive team. Memphis ranks No. 1 in giving up the fewest points per 100 possessions and is No. 2 in fewest road points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Grizzlies open a four-game West Coast trip here with a lot of confidence and intensity. They lost 96-92 to the Kings at home on Dec. 16. The loss was especially tough because the Kings are coached by former Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger. I like Joerger. But I also like David Fizdale, who is doing a tremendous job coaching the Grizzlies this season. Memphis just rolled past Oklahoma City, 114-80, at home on Thursday. That was a season-low in points for the Thunder. Russell Westbrook couldn't do anything against a Grizzlies defense keying on him. Westbrook had zero assists and six turnovers. The Grizzlies won that game by 34 points despite not having Mike Conley. It's a bonus if Conley plays here, but I'm fine with Memphis if he doesn't. Marc Gasol is going to play. Gasol could be the Comeback Player of the Year. The Grizzlies are 8-3 when Gasol plays and Conley doesn't. Sacramento is heavily reliant on its superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. Stop Cousins and you stop the Kings because they don't have enough good pieces especially with Rudy Gay bothered by a hip injury that has kept him out of seven of the last eight games. Portland just rolled the Kings, 102-89, at home this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers heavily focused on Cousins, holding him to 8 of 19 shooting from the floor. The rest of the Kings couldn't pick up the slack. When you have to rely on Garrett Temple and Matt Barnes for heavy scoring you're in trouble. That's the scenario I envision in this game especially given then Memphis is a far better defensive team than Portland. The Grizzlies have covered 10 of their last 12 Western Conference games and are 4-1 ATS during their last five visits to Sacramento.
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12-30-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The Pacers are in circle-the-wagons mode having dropped four in a row, including a 90-85 road loss to the Bulls this past Monday. Indiana has lost 13 of 17 on the road, but is 11-5 at home. The Pacers have won five of their last six home contests, including defeating the Clippers by 21 points and Hornets by 16 during this span. Their backcourt has gotten healthier with the return of Monta Ellis and Paul George broke out of his slump with 34 points in the Pacers' last game a road loss to the Wizards two days ago. Chicago has lost 10 of its 16 road games, including going 0-5 SU and ATS this month. This is a rare week day game, which works against the visitor. The Bulls just squeaked past the lowly Nets by two at home in their last game two days ago thanks to Jimmy Butler, who tweaked his ankle in that game and may not be 100 percent. The Bulls have failed to cover the past seven times following a victory.
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12-29-16 | Mavs +3 v. Lakers | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
The record shows the Lakers are better than the Mavericks. LA is 12-23. Dallas is 9-23. But what the overall record doesn't indicate is the Mavericks are healthier and because of that are playing better. After a brutal 3-15 start, Dallas is 6-8 in its last 14 games. The Lakers have been the opposite. They began the year surprisingly well, but are 2-13 this month. Dallas has owned the Lakers winning the last 11 times. This includes a 109-97 Dallas win at Staples Center last month when the Lakers were playing much better and Dallas was playing much worse. Andrew Bogut returned to the Mavericks' front line on Tuesday after missing 11 games. He gives Dallas much needed interior toughness. Dirk Nowitzki also is back joining veterans Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and Deron Williams, who has been playing well.
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12-29-16 | Heat +6.5 v. Hornets | 82-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Charlotte isn't a team to be laying big points with and the Hornets are in a flat spot coming off an impressive blowout win against Orlando and with a look-ahead game against the Cavaliers up next. The Heat are struggling due to injuries, but point guard Goran Dragic - their second-best player - made it through today's shoot-around and is expected to play after missing Tuesday's game. Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson have flashed and are playing more consistent. They should be in line for strong games with Dragic returning to the lineup. Hassan Whiteside gives the Heat the best big man on the floor. He's having a strong season, but had a bad game on Tuesday drawing criticism. The prideful Whiteside should come up big here. Miami usually is undervalued on the road where it has covered six of the last eight times. That's the case here.
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