Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-24 | Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games. |
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01-25-24 | Mt. St. Mary's +4.5 v. Quinnipiac | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona. |
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01-25-24 | SMU v. North Texas +1.5 | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game. |
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01-24-24 | George Washington v. Richmond UNDER 147.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in seven of Richmond's last eight games. The Spiders have a top-30 defense and are one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country. |
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01-23-24 | San Diego +3.5 v. Portland | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco. |
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01-23-24 | Houston v. BYU +2.5 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU. |
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01-22-24 | Weber State v. Montana UNDER 144.5 | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
When I get involved in a Big Sky Conference game, it's usually going Over the total. But I'm making an exception in this Big Sky matchup. I believe the oddsmaker has set too high of a total. |
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01-21-24 | Oregon v. Utah -5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene. |
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01-20-24 | Purdue v. Iowa +7 | Top | 84-70 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points. |
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01-19-24 | Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | Top | 48-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's. |
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01-18-24 | Troy State v. South Alabama | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas. |
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01-18-24 | Tenn-Martin v. Morehead State UNDER 150.5 | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Morehead State gives up the 11th-fewest points per game in the country at 62.6. The Eagles rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point defense. They are the top defensive team in the Ohio Valley Conference. |
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01-17-24 | Rhode Island +8.5 v. St Bonaventure | 64-99 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rhode Island had a rough December. But sparked by David Green, the Rams are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games. |
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01-17-24 | Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them. |
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01-16-24 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +3.5 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas is 7-2 at home, including a victory against Duke, and draws Texas A&M in a letdown spot.
The Aggies are off their finest win of the season. They beat Kentucky, 97-92 in overtime, at home this past Saturday. It was the first time the Aggies defeated a ranked team this season and it was their first victory against the Wildcats since 2018. The Razorbacks should be fired-up after consecutive road defeats to Florida and Georgia. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman ripped his team following the latest loss. |
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01-16-24 | Wisconsin v. Penn State +7.5 | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup. |
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01-15-24 | Dartmouth +18 v. Princeton | 58-76 | Push | 0 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Dartmouth is below the radar and justifiably so with three straight losses and non-covers. But the Big Green has had injuries. Now they finally are healthy. |
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01-14-24 | Washington v. UCLA +3 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
UCLA covered against Marquette and Gonzaga in narrow losses to those schools earlier this season. Few, though, are rushing to the window to bet the Bruins these days. UCLA is 1-8 in its last nine games and off an embarrassing, 90-44, road loss to Utah this past Thursday. |
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01-13-24 | CS-Fullerton v. CS-Northridge -4 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
Cal Northridge is a better team than Cal State-Fullerton and the timing sets up well for the Matadors.
The Matadors just played on Thursday and lost, 95-75, to UC Davis on the road. That was just the second time in 14 games that Northridge failed to cover the spread. The Matadors are 12-4 and 12-2 ATS in their lined games. One of those victories was a 76-72 victory against UCLA on the road as a 17-point underdog. It wasn't a fluke win either as the Matadors were in control for much of the game. Fullerton is 1-3 in its last four games. The Titans haven't played in a week. So they figure to be rusty while Northridge is anxious to atone for its poor showing this past Thursday. Another factor Northridge has going is its coach, Andy Newman, is a former coach at Fullerton. He's been pointing to this game. |
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01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
San Diego State isn't the same on the road. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in away and neutral site games this season. |
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01-12-24 | Dayton +1.5 v. Duquesne | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Dayton has won nine in a row. The Flyers shouldn't be an underdog to Duquesne. |
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01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. |
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01-11-24 | Stony Brook v. Towson -4.5 | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I find this line short. Towson is 6-0 at home. Stony Brook hosted Towson last year and lost, 67-55. Towson is superior to the Seawolves again this season. |
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01-10-24 | The Citadel v. Furman -9.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Back on Dec. 19, The Citadel stunned Notre Dame, beating the Irish, 65-45, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog.
Much has changed this month, though, for the Bulldogs. And it's not good. The Citadel suffered multiple injuries, losing leading scorer AJ Smith to a shoulder injury and second-leading rebounder Winston Hill to a season-ending knee injury. The Bulldogs were missing four players in their last game, which was an 80-64 home loss to Samford this past Saturday. Now the Bulldogs have to go on the road to meet Furman. The Paladins are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Furman buried The Citadel at home last season, 97-72. However, the Bulldogs upset the Paladins, 69-65, when they hosted them later in the season. Furman hasn't lost two in a row to The Citadel in 11 years. Furman averages 81.8 points a game. The Citadel has allowed 80 points in each of its last two games. The Paladins have two big scorers in Marcus Foster and JP Pegues. They are averaging 19.8 points and 18.8 points per game, respectively. Minus Smith, the Bulldogs' leading scorer is Elijah Morgan at 14.5 points. Ed Conroy, coach of The Citadel, admitted his team is going to have to reinvent themselves following all these injuries. That's going to take time. So the spot sets up well for Furman. |
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01-09-24 | Rhode Island v. Davidson -5 | 79-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm looking for a strong bounce back effort from Davidson at home after the Wildcats lost its Atlantic-10 opener six days ago to Dayton, 72-59. That was the Wildcats' first home defeat in seven games and also halted a seven-game win streak. Davidson had a bad shooting night, while Dayton was hot making 50 percent of its shots from the floor. |
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01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State +2.5 | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Getting even a basket with Iowa State is huge in this matchup of defensive giants. |
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01-06-24 | Cincinnati v. BYU -8.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams. |
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01-05-24 | Connecticut -4.5 v. Butler | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Butler has never beaten Connecticut in seven tries. Butler has never kept the final score below double-digits either in any of its losses to Connecticut. Maybe the Bulldogs can keep this game in single digits, but I don't see them pulling the upset. |
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01-04-24 | Texas-Arlington +5 v. Tarleton St | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Texas Arlington is underpriced here. The Mavericks have played a tougher schedule than Tarleton State. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games. This includes the Mavericks covering against Texas, Texas Tech and Grand Canyon, who they led in the second half against. |
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01-03-24 | Indiana v. Nebraska -5 | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
This is Fred Hoiberg's best Nebraska team since taking over the Cornhuskers in 2019. The Cornhuskers are 11-2, including 9-1 at home. I see them getting the job done at home against Indiana, a game Hoiberg has been pointing to. Indiana has played three straight easy home games beating Morehead State, North Alabama and Kennesaw State. This is only the Hooisers' second true road game.
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01-03-24 | St. Thomas -4.5 v. Idaho | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
I have no problem fading Idaho, who has played a very weak schedule. The Vandals are a below average scoring team and rank 326nd in 3-point defense. St. Thomas is 2-0 in the Summit League with impressive wins and covers against North Dakota and Kansas City. The Tommies have covered five of their last six lined games, including the past four. They are giving up just 54.5 points in their last four games.
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01-02-24 | Purdue v. Maryland +6.5 | 67-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Top-ranked Purdue has one loss this season. That defeat occurred to Northwestern on the road. It happened to be the Boilermakers' lone true road game this season. |
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12-30-23 | Portland State -3.5 v. Idaho | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category. |
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12-29-23 | Arizona v. California +14 | 100-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener. |
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12-28-23 | Prairie View A&M v. Texas-San Antonio -2.5 | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games. |
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12-22-23 | Siena v. Brown -12 | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home. |
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12-20-23 | Arkansas State v. Belmont -4 | 70-74 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
The last time Arkansas State played on the road was a week ago. The Red Wolves upset Louisville. Impressive yes, but that was only their first road win in six tries. I don't see Arkansas State duplicating that success against Belmont, which is 4-0 at home.
Arkansas State is 4-7. Belmont is 8-4. The Red Hawks are turnover-prone, while the Bruins are extremely efficient in their shooting. They rank 22nd in field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage. |
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12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
UNLV is in action for the first time since upsetting No. 8 ranked Creighton this past Wednesday. It was the Rebels' highest-ranked win since 2020. I'm looking for a Rebel letdown against this elite defensive foe in this neutral site tournament matchup in Phoenix. |
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12-15-23 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +15 | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
These in-state rivals just played 13 days ago in The Pit at New Mexico. It was no contest. New Mexico buried the Aggies, 106-62. The Lobos made 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range for 56 percent. New Mexico State missed 15 of its 18 3-point shots for 17 percent. |
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12-13-23 | Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 60-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23. |
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12-11-23 | Utah Tech v. CS-Northridge -130 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
It's a short college basketball board today, but I'm getting involved in a game involving small conference West Coast teams. I like Cal State Northridge to win at home against Utah Tech. |
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12-10-23 | Boston University v. Wagner -3.5 | 73-59 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points. |
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12-09-23 | Illinois v. Tennessee -6.5 | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue. |
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12-09-23 | Tulane v. Mississippi State UNDER 152 | 76-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
An early start matchup at a neutral site doesn't bode well for as high as scoring game as the oddsmaker projects here. Tulane has shot better than 50 percent from the field in six of its seven games this season. However, the Green Wave have faced an easy schedule. Mississippi State is the toughest defense they have encountered so far. |
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12-07-23 | Eastern Kentucky +9.5 v. NC-Greensboro | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky beat UNC Greensboro, 68-64, at home last season. The Colonels are off to a slow start this season at 3-3 while Greensboro is 6-1. But I'm going to buy low on Eastern Kentucky in the belief this line is inflated too much. Eastern Kentucky isn't nearly double-digits worse than the Spartans, whose defense can be dented.
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12-05-23 | Cleveland State v. St. Mary's -14.5 | Top | 57-70 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State. |
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12-05-23 | Villanova -140 v. Kansas State | 71-72 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
I believe in the due factor. It's going to show up here. Villanova has lost its last two games as double-digit favorites against fellow Philadelphia teams, St. Joe's and Drexel. The Wildcats had won and covered their previous four games. |
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12-04-23 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 164.5 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
I find this total to be too high, an overreaction to each team's last game. |
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12-03-23 | Creighton -3.5 v. Nebraska | 89-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team. |
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12-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. Nevada -8.5 | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup. |
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12-01-23 | Rider v. Siena +3.5 | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season. |
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11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4 v. Samford | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog. |
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11-29-23 | Davidson +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season. |
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11-27-23 | North Dakota State +7.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
North Dakota State is a strong 3-point shooting team ranking 64th. The Bisons are in a good situational spot here.
They draw San Jose State in the Spartans' first game since returning from the Virgin Islands. San Jose State went 2-1 in the Paradise Jam Tournament there. The Spartans were favored in all three of their games there against weak competition. That has made their record and statistics look better than they really are. I don't think the Spartans are very good. They only scored 42 points in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago before they went on their Virgin Islands trip. I think these teams are closer than this point spread indicates. |
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11-26-23 | Bellarmine +9 v. West Virginia | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players. |
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11-24-23 | BYU v. Arizona State +10.5 | 77-49 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament. |
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11-22-23 | New Mexico -7.5 v. Rice | Top | 90-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-20-23 | Oregon -20 v. Florida A&M | 67-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Oregon has some injuries, but I have to go with my power ratings and I have the Ducks 24-point favorites here so I'm laying this number. These same two teams played in Oregon last season and the Ducks buried Florida A&M, 80-45. Oregon is 3-0. The Ducks rolled past Tennessee State, 92-67, at home as 18 1/2-point favorites in their last game this past Friday. Florida A&M can't compete at this level. The Rattlers are 0-3. Their three losses all were by blowouts - 105-54 to Creighton, 81-54 to Nebraska and 89-68 to Florida. The Rattlers are deficient in rebounding and commit way too many turnovers to stay in this game against this caliber of opponent.
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11-18-23 | Portland v. Nevada -13.5 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland. |
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11-16-23 | UMass Lowell +7.5 v. Arizona State | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Arizona State has the bigger name. But Massachusetts Lowell is very underrated. It wouldn't shock me if the 3-0 River Hawks upset the Sun Devils straight-up. Lowell did just that against Georgia Tech beating the Yellow Jackets, 74-71, on the road this past Tuesday. The River Hawks won a school-record 26 games last season. Lowell also has an impressive 33-point blowout victory against Dartmouth this season.
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11-15-23 | Eastern Illinois v. Illinois State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Eastern Illinois has played two Division I opponents so far this season scoring 52 points versus Illinois and 69 against Loyola Chicago. The Panthers were one of the weakest scoring teams last season and nothing has changed much this season.
Illinois State is a Missouri Valley Conference team. That says enough about the Redbirds' defense and style of play. It's slow and methodical. Eastern Illinois also prefers a slow tempo. These teams met last season. Guess how many points they combined for? 103. So I find this total way too high. |
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11-14-23 | Texas State v. Oklahoma -15 | Top | 54-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins. |
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11-12-23 | Nevada +5 v. Washington | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
I regard these teams as even. So does the KenPom rankings, which list Nevada 69th and Washington 70th. |
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11-09-23 | New Mexico v. St. Mary's -6 | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I want Saint Mary's going for me in this spot. This is a monster revenge game for the Gaels. They've had this game circled ever since New Mexico upset them as a nine-point road underdog, 69-65, last season. That halted the Gaels' 23-game home win streak. |
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11-07-23 | North Carolina-Asheville +10.5 v. Michigan | 74-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
UNC Asheville isn't getting enough respect here. The Bulldogs won the Big South last season to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. They finished 27-7. |
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11-07-23 | Northern Iowa +4.5 v. North Texas | 77-83 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Northern Iowa should be much improved from its 12-20 record of last season. The Panthers return nine of its top 10 scorers along with having three highly touted freshmen. Two of the Panthers' returners, Tylan Anderson and Bowen Born, were named to the All-Missouri Valley preseason all-conference team. |
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11-07-23 | Presbyterian v. Vanderbilt -18.5 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch. |
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11-06-23 | Iona v. College of Charleston -6.5 | 69-71 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
College of Charleston went 31-4 last season, reaching No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll and earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars should be good again with a strong junior class and balanced scoring. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -7.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number. Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively. However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that. Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams. Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here. |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's not to the Over. San Diego State is an Under machine. The Aztecs have gone Under in their last 12 games and 14 of their past 15! Florida Atlantic is a big-scoring team reliant on 3-point accuracy. But the Owls haven't faced a 3-point defense as good as San Diego State. The Aztecs have held foes to below 28 percent shooting from 3-point range. Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 40 in defensive field goal percentage. The Owls have given up an average of fewer than 65 points during their seven post-season games, five of which went Under. San Diego State doesn't have a player who averages even 11 points a game in the NCAA Tournament. The game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston. That's a football stadium where the Texans play. It's a huge structure with an unusual shooting backdrop for college basketball teams. It's a huge plus for the Under. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road. The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor. UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers. Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games. I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense. Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves. Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament. It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside. Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points. I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State -120 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is on house money having never advanced this far. The Owls have a strong backcourt. But I'm going with Kansas State coming out of the Big 12 and having two star players, point guard Markquis Nowell and Keyonate Johnson. There might not have been a tougher conference in the country than the Big 12. Nowell and Johnson give Kansas State the talent edge. Nowell, averaging 17.2 points, 8.1 assists and 2.5 steals, has been the star of the tournament. He sparked the Wildcats past Michigan State and Kentucky. Kansas State has covered 77 percent during their past 22 games against above .500 opponents going 17-5. |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th. Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game. Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns. The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State +1.5 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Tom Izzo is a great coach. But Michigan State is getting too much respect here because of that. Kansas State is the better team. So I'll back the Wildcats in an underdog role. The Wildcats have been underrated on the line all season. They have covered 16 of the past 21 times versus above .500 opponents. Michigan State missed 14 of 16 3-point shots in its win against Marquette. The Spartans won't survive Kansas State if they don't shoot a whole lot better from beyond the arc. The Wildcats have the superior defense. They rank 13th in 3-point defense. The Spartans are averaging just 66.3 points in their last three games. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State UNDER 138 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 45 m | Show |
Both team's defenses were solid during the regular season. But they've each stepped up during the postseason. Now, with ample time to prepare, expect both defenses to be at their finest. Michigan State has a top-100 defense. The Spartans rank 33rd in 3-point defense. They've held their past three opponents to an average of 63.3 points. This includes holding Marquette to 21 points under its season average. Coaching guru Tom Izzo has plenty of time to work on defensive schemes designed to bother this specific opponent. Look for Michigan State to play at a slow tempo. Kansas State has been a high level defensive team since last month. The Wildcats are giving up an average of 67 points during their last two games. They just held Kentucky six points under its season average. Note the Madison Square Garden venue, too. This is a huge arena making it tough for teams unfamiliar with this arena to shoot a high percentage. |
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03-22-23 | UAB v. Vanderbilt | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
Oddsmaker opened Vanderbilt the favorite. Wrong. Alabama-Birmingham is the better team. That's the way the marketplace has so far reacted and I'm in agreement. Vanderbilt is home and off an impressive victory against big-name Michigan. So it's understandable why the oddsmaker opened the Commodores the favorite. But UAB is hot - 14-2 in its last 16 games, including six straight wins - and holds several key edges. The Blazers have a rebounding edge being one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Commodores are minus their top rebounder, injured Liam Robbins. UAB also has a deeper bench. This is important, too, because the Blazers play at an extremely fast tempo. Vanderbilt has a shorter rotation making it more vulnerable to getting worn down, especially this late in the season. Both teams played Southern Mississippi. The Blazers buried Southern Mississippi, 88-60, in their first-round NIT game. Vanderbilt lost to Southern Mississippi, 60-48, at home early in the season. UAB is coached by Andy Kennedy, who knows the SEC well having been the head coach at Mississippi. The Blazers are 2-0 versus SEC teams this season beating Georgia at a neutral site and South Carolina at home. |
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03-20-23 | Radford v. San Jose State -6.5 | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
I like San Jose State to win this College Basketball Invitational matchup by double-digits. The Spartans play in the superior conference being in the Mountain West Conference compared to Radford, which finished third in the Big South Conference. San Jose State plays strong defense, is in better current form than Radford, is the superior rebounding team and much better at the free throw line. San Jose State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Spartans have been playing tremendous defense giving up an average of 58.8 points during their last seven games. Radford averages fewer than 70 points a game. The Highlanders are 290th in free throw percentage at 68.8 percent. Radford has a losing record in its last seven games. San Jose State has been a reliable point spread team covering 20 of its last 28 games for 71 percent. |
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03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU. Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent. I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy. TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory. |
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03-19-23 | Radford v. Tarleton St -120 | 72-70 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
Strength of schedule means a lot when getting involved in the College Basketball Invitational Tournament. I have Tarleton State power-rated higher than Radford. Key reasons for that is the superior competition the Texans played along with being in the Western Athletic Conference. Radford, out of the Big South Conference, was 275th in strength of schedule. Tarleton State faced the 16th-toughest non-conference schedule. The Texans beat Belmont, which won 21 games, and Boston College of the ACC. The Texans also played NCAA Tournament teams Arizona State, Baylor and Drake. Radford also is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. |
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03-18-23 | Penn State +5.5 v. Texas | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
Penn State has the right combination to upset Texas. The Nittany Lions are peaking at the perfect time going 9-2 in their last 11 games, covering in their past five matchup. The Nittany Lions have a great guard in Jalen Pickett. They have veterans who don't get rattled and are tremendous as underdogs covering the past nine times in that role. Penn State also is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 SU the past seven times they've played a tournament team. The pressure is all on Texas. The Longhorns haven't responded well before to this type of pressure going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry lacks NCAA Tournament experience. So that's a question mark. Penn State is 21-8-1 (72 percent) ATS the past 30 times when playing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-18-23 | Auburn +5.5 v. Houston | 64-81 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Houston may be the top seed in the Midwest Regional, but the Cougars are in trouble against Auburn. The Cougars haven't been playing well going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. They lost by 10 points to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game and only beat 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky, 63-52, this past Thursday in their first-round NCAA Tournament game. Star guard Marcus Sasser aggravated a groin injury against Northern Kentucky. His status is questionable. Jamal Shead, Houston's top assists player, also isn't 100 percent with a knee injury. Auburn is a tough opponent for the Cougars. The Tigers are playing excellent defense, not turning the ball over and are battle tested having dealt with upper tier competition being in the SEC. Auburn beat Iowa, 83-75, to win its 11th straight opening-round NCAA Tournament game. The Tigers took No. 1 ranked Alabama to overtime on the road and beat Tennessee by nine points during their last two regular season games. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. |
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03-18-23 | Princeton v. Missouri UNDER 149.5 | Top | 78-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Princeton successfully outrebounded and slowed down Arizona, 59-55, in their first-round NCAA Tournament victory. The Tigers certainly can do the same to Missouri. The Tigers held Arizona to 28 points below its season average. Missouri held Utah State to 14 points below the Aggies' season average in a 76-65 first-round tournament win on Thursday. No way Princeton gets into a track meet with Missouri so I find this total too high especially because Princeton also is very strong on the defensive glass, ranking in the top 10 in defensive rebounding. The Under has cashed six of the last seven times Princeton has played on a neutral court. Missouri is underrated defensively in this matchup with its defensive statistics skewed playing in the SEC. Now the Tigers are facing an Ivy League opponent. Missouri held Utah State to 4-of-24 shooting from 3-point range. Princeton missed 21 of 25 3-point shots against Arizona. Princeton is a below average 3-point shooting team so the Tigers should not be able to hurt Missouri from beyond the arc. |
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03-17-23 | Drake v. Miami-FL -125 | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
This is my Game of the Week. Drake is a trendy pick to upset Miami in this NCAA Tournament matchup. But I don't see the Bulldogs pulling the upset even if the Hurricanes don't have Norchad Omier, their second-leading rebounder. He's questionable after suffering a knee injury against Duke last Friday. Miami has many other scorers, including star guard and ACC Player of the Year, Isaiah Wong. I respect Drake and the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake demolishing Bradley in the MVC Tournament title game, though, is less impressive after the Braves were buried by Big Ten disappointment Wisconsin in the NIT. Miami is the superior team having beaten ranked opponents Virginia, Clemson and Pittsburgh along with scoring non-conference wins against Providence, Central Florida and Rutgers. Drake doesn't have that kind of resume. |
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03-17-23 | Providence v. Kentucky -4 | 53-61 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
I want to back teams with momentum in the NCAA Tournament. Providence certainly doesn't have that. The Friars have lost and failed to cover their last three games. They are 1-4 in their last five games, including suffering blowout losses to Seton Hall and Connecticut. Kentucky was shocked by Saint Peter's in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. I don't see the Wildcats letting that happen a second straight year. The Wildcats are 5-2 in their last seven games with the two losses both coming to Vanderbilt. The Wildcats' last four victories have been against Arkansas, Auburn, Florida and Tennessee - all by eight or more points.
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03-16-23 | Colgate v. Texas -13 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. |
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03-16-23 | Utah State v. Missouri +1.5 | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Utah State and Missouri are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. Utah State averages 79.1 points while the Tigers average 80.1 points. Because Missouri is the superior team. I largely base this opinion on the quality of opponents each team has played. Utah State finishing second in the Mountain West Conference doesn't impress me as much as Missouri finishing fourth in the SEC. Missouri also has a number of significant victories that Utah State lacks. The Tigers have the potential to go far in this tournament. Something I can't envision for Utah State. Missouri struggled against high-level, elite talent teams such as Alabama and Kansas. Utah State isn't nearly in that class. The Tigers scored numerous impressive victories that Utah State didn't achieve. I point to the Tigers scoring 93 points in an 18-point neutral court win against Illinois, scoring 78 points in a 17-point win against Iowa State and beating Tennessee twice, including posting 86 points against the Volunteers on the road. Missouri is 22-0 this season when scoring at least 70 points. Utah State allows an average of 70 points a game. The Aggies also rank 294th in defensive 3-point percentage. Missouri can exploit that. |
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03-15-23 | UCF +2.5 v. Florida | Top | 67-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State. The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival. The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points. |
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03-15-23 | Texas Southern -130 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | 61-84 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride Texas Southern's momentum and point spread record at neutral sites in this NCAA Tournament play-in game at Dayton, Ohio. The Tigers upset both Alcorn State and Grambling on their way to winning their third straight Southwest Athletic Conference title. Texas Southern is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. Fairleigh Dickinson would not even be in this position if Merrimack had been eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament. Fairleigh Dickinson is 2-10 ATS in its last dozen neutral site contests. |
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03-14-23 | Villanova v. Liberty UNDER 137.5 | Top | 57-62 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Two slow tempo teams. Two strong defensive clubs. Plus injuries. Factor all of that in and you have the basis for a strong Under play here. Villanova is one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. The Wildcats are facing a Liberty defense that ranks eighth in the country surrendering only 60.2 points a game. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass. The Wildcats have four players who score in double figures. Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore are two of them - and both could be out due to soreness and in Whitmore's case an eye injury. |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3.5 v. SE Missouri State | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
Credit to Southeast Missouri State capturing the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as a No. 5 seed. But I don't see the Redhawks getting past Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Texas A&M Corpus Christi is hot, winning 12 of its last 13 games, and are battle tested. The Islanders captured the Southland Conference Tournament title for the second year in a row. They also won the regular season championship. Southeast Missouri State last made the NCAA Tournament 23 years ago. Both teams play fast and can score. The big difference is at the free throw line. Southeast Missouri State ranks 226th in free throw percentage. The Islanders rank fifth in the nation in free throw percentage at 79.1 percent. |
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03-12-23 | Memphis +6 v. Houston | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points. Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game. The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points. Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation. A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points. |
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03-11-23 | CS-Fullerton v. UC-Santa Barbara -3.5 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Santa Barbara is riding a lot of momentum and had the easier path to reach this game. The Gauchos have won their last six games going 5-0-1 ATS. Cal-State Fullerton had to go overtime to beat Hawaii this past Thursday and then upset Cal-Irvine in a tough game last night. These teams are close defensively, but the Gauchos shoot the ball far better than the Titans. |
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03-11-23 | Utah State v. San Diego State -125 | 57-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Utah State averages nearly 80 points a game. But the Aggies are heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting. San Diego State has an elite defense, especially when it comes to defending 3-pointers. The Aztecs rank 15th in the country in 3-point defense. The Aztecs are in top defensive form, too. They just held San Jose State to 49 points. San Diego State is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games and 8-2-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. San Diego State beat Utah State in the last meeting. Look for the Aztecs to do it again here. |
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03-10-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5 | 83-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
There were 123 points scored when these teams last met. That was no fluke. These teams play slow and points are at a premium. That's especially so during the Big West Conference Tournament, which is played at the neutral site of the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nev. All four Big West Tourney games went Under on Thursday, including Fullerton-Hawaii, which went to overtime. All together, the Under has cashed in five of the six Big West Tourney games. Fullerton has not scored more than 62 points in regulation during its last four games. Irvine is averaging 53.3 points in its last three games. |
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03-10-23 | Grand Canyon v. Sam Houston State -2.5 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. |
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03-09-23 | Washington State +3 v. Oregon | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Washington State is peaking at the right time. The Cougars have won their last seven games. I like their chances against Oregon, which hasn't played in five days, in this Pac-12 Conference Tournament matchup. Oregon has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 neutral site games. The teams just met on Feb. 19 at Washington State and the Cougars won, 68-65. |
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03-09-23 | San Jose State v. Nevada -5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road. I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas. Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games. San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team. Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside. |
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03-08-23 | Georgetown v. Villanova UNDER 142 | 48-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Georgetown has failed to break 70 points during its last five games. The Hoyas managed only 59 points against Creighton in their last game. Villanova gives up fewer than 68 points per game on the season. The Hoyas are going to have to earn their points the hard way as they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. This should be a very slow-paced game. Villanova plays at the slowest tempo of any Big East team. Note, too, the venue: Madison Square Garden. This is a spacious arena with a history of Unders. The Under has cashed 69 percent of the time during the past 39 instances when there has been a total of 136 or higher at this arena in postseason college games. |
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03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +2.5 | 65-57 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
I get that it's been a very disappointing season for Wisconsin, who are 17-13 and went 9-11 in the Big Ten. But the Badgers underdogs to Ohio State? No way. The Buckeyes are 13-18, 5-15 in the Big Ten. They had a prolonged stretch where they went 1-14 in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes aren't winning five games in five days through the Big Ten Conference Tournament gauntlet to make the NCAA Tournament - and they know it. Wisconsin is capable of beating any team, something Ohio State isn't. The Badgers defeated sixth-ranked Marquette and took third-ranked Kansas to overtime. The Badgers are a bubble team. They know they must win at least the next three games to stay in realistic contention for an NCAA Tournament bid. The Badgers have an elite defense, giving up 63.8 points. That ranks them 33rd in the nation and is six points fewer per game than Ohio State allows. Wisconsin holds a big coaching edge, too, with Greg Gard against Chris Holtmann. The teams met once during the regular season. The Badgers beat the Buckeyes, 65-60, at Ohio State. Now they're playing at a neutral site. |