Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 263 h 29 m | Show |
Buffalo holds key edges in the trenches both in running the ball and stopping the run. The Bulls' Jaret Patterson is one of the best backs in the nation. He rushed for 1,626 yards and accounted for 18 TD's. Charlotte has a good RB, too, in Benny LeMay. The Bulls, though, rank fourth in the nation in stopping the run, while the 49ers are 99th in run defense. Charlotte has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has faced a winning opponent. The 49ers won seven games to qualify for their first bowl game. But six of those victories were achieved against weak team and the other win came against Marshall when the Thundering Herd were in a flat spot. The 49ers are 5-13 ATS the past 18 times playing a team outside of Conference USA. Buffalo played in a bowl game last season. So the Bulls have bowl experience. Charlotte doesn't, which is a huge negative.
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
I don't see where LSU is a touchdown better than Georgia at a neutral site. George has the better defense and is more experienced in big game neutral site games than LSU. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 in the country in scoring defense giving up 10.4 points a game. They haven't surrendered more than 20 points all season! As good as LSU is offensively, Georgia has the better rushing numbers and gives up 2.7 yards per run, while the Tigers yield 3.8 yards a run. When it comes to passing, Georgia allows 9.6 yards per completion compared to LSU's 13 yards per completion. Georgia needs a victory here to reach the College Football Playoffs, while LSU already is in. So more is at stake for the Bulldogs.
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11-30-19 | UNLV v. Nevada -7 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Nevada Reno is the superior team, is home and in strong revenge mode after blowing a 23-0 lead to UNLV last season in losing, 34-29, in this annual rivalry matchup. The Wolf Pack eased up in that game and it cost them. That won't be the case this season. Nevada coach Jay Norvell has done everything to fire up his team, including bringing in former Nevada coach Chris Ault to speak to the team. The Wolf Pack should enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having just upset San Diego State and Fresno State both on the road during their past two games. UNLV, by contrast, lost by 29 points at Fresno State and lost by three points to San Diego State at home. UNLV is off an emotional victory against San Jose State. That was the final game played at Sam Boyd Stadium and the Rebels were fired-up for it. Now reality sinks in. The Rebels aren't going to a bowl game for a fifth straight year and coach Tony Sanchez has been fired.
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11-23-19 | Washington v. Colorado +14.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This high line might be justified from a Washington point of view if this were last season and if the Huskies cared about this game. But it's not. Washington is down from the past couple of seasons. The Huskies have the third-best defense in the Pac-12. Certainly that's good by ordinary standards, but not by Washington standards. The Huskies had led the Pac-12 in the key defensive categories during the previous four seasons. Colorado has receiving weapons for experienced QB Steven Montez with Laviska Shenault, Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is one of the top wideouts in the nation. The Huskies already have a bowl spot secured with their 6-4 record. They have a look-ahead spot with their traditional season-ending game against Washington State next week. The Buffaloes are in must-win mode if they want to stay alive for a bowl berth. They have played better at home going 3-2 ATS posting straight-up victories against Nebraska and Stanford. Colorado lost by four points to USC as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs.
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
It may take more than a week for Baylor to get over its choke job against Oklahoma. The Sooners rallied from 25 points down to beat the Bears last week ending Baylor's hopes of an unbeaten season. Baylor doesn't even need to win this game to earn a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. All the Bears have to do to accomplish that is defeat Kansas in their regular season finale. Texas has had a disappointing season. But the Longhorns still have an outside chance of a conference title plus a strong bowl game if they win their final two regular season games. The Longhorns are at their most dangerous in an underdog role thanks to Tom Herman. He's the premier underdog coach in CFB. Herman coached Houston for two years before going to Texas. The Cougars were 5-0 ATS as 'dogs under Herman. The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS when getting points in three years under Herman. So Herman's combined head coaching record against the spread as an underdog is 15-4 (79 percent)! I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But I like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger even more. Texas has defeated Baylor the past four times the teams have met, including 23-17 last season and 38-7 in Waco two years ago.
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11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5 | Top | 58-37 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot here for LSU after the Tigers' great SEC showdown victory over Alabama last week. That effort was both physically and emotionally draining for the Tigers. If you discount its loss to Alabama, Mississippi has lost five games by an average of 6.6 points. The Rebels played both Texas A&M and Auburn close. Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the SEC and 13th nationally in rushing. Rebels freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee is a dual threat. He leads the team in rushing. LSU QB Joe Burrow can't produce points if his offense is on the bench watching Mississippi control clock with its ground attack.
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11-16-19 | Navy v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 20-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
I'm going to fade the line movement. The marketplace is overthinking this matchup by their heavy play on Navy. Notre Dame has won 16 in a row at home. The Irish have played a tougher schedule than Navy and beat them, 44-22, last season as 21 1/2-point favorites at a neutral site. This is the last ranked regular season opponent Notre Dame faces. So the Irish won't lack motivation. Navy actually has a bigger game on deck with a first-place showdown in the American Athletic Conference West Division playing at home against SMU.
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11-02-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 55 m | Show |
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun. The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country. Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.
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10-31-19 | West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins. West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor. The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season. Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.
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10-26-19 | Illinois v. Purdue -9.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
Congrats to Illinois on pulling off the season's biggest upset with its 24-23 home victory against sixth-ranked Wisconsin last Saturday. The Illini were 28 1/2-point underdogs. It was the first time Illinois had defeated a ranked team in eight years. I'm not a fan of Illinois coach Lovie Smith, though, and I don't see the Illini being ready to go on the road to take on a frustrated Purdue team that has dominated them recently. This is the mother of all letdown spots for Illinois. Purdue has lost its quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and star wide receiver Rondale Moore to injuries. However, backup QB Jack Plummer is showing steady improvement, the Boilermakers still have good receiving depth - including an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brycen Hopkins - and an edge in coaching with Jeff Brohm. Illinois could be missing its leading pass receiver, Ricky Smalling, and defensive end Oluwole Betiku, who ranks among the nation leaders in sacks. Both were injured against Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have beaten the Illini each of the last three years, including 46-7 on the road last season and 29-10 two years ago.
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
These are heady times for SMU. The Mustangs are 7-0 for the first time in 37 years and ranked 16th in the AP's Top 25 poll. That's the highest the Mustangs have been rated since 1985. The combination of that and the perception that Houston is a dead team after losing outright as 21-point road favorites to lowly Connecticut last week push this line to the two-touchdown mark. I'm stepping in at this point. Houston still has bowl aspirations. The Cougars also should get back QB Clayton Tune. He's a big upgrade on third-stringer Logan Holgorsen, who was behind center against Connecticut. Tune didn't play in that huge upset because of a hamstring injury. He is practicing this week and expected to play. The Cougars rank 22nd in rushing. They have the capability to play ball control preventing SMU's high octane offense from taking the field. This also is a big in-state rivalry and has recruting ramifications. The Cougars have revenge motivation, too. They were ranked 17th in the country when SMU beat them last season as 14-point home 'dogs.
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10-19-19 | Kansas +21.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-50 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
This line might make sense - it it were last year. Les Miles has made Kansas far more respectable. But even before Miles came on board the Jayhawks have given Texas trouble. The Longhorns defeated the Jayhawks, 24-17, last year failing to cover as 15 1/2-point road favorites. Texas beat Kansas by 15 points at home two seasons ago failing to cover as 32-point favorites and three years ago the Jayhawks stunned the Longhorns, 24-21, as 23 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kansas had a bye last week. The Jayhawks draw the Longhorns after Texas just had its annual Red River Shootout against arch-rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are at TCU next week. So the spot clearly favors Kansas. Sam Ehlinger is one of the best QB's in the country. But I see the Jayhawks having the weapons to hang with Texas especially since the Longhorns have multiple defensive injuries. The Longhorns are giving up 453.3 yards per game, which ranks 111th. They have permitted an average of 31.6 points in their three Big 12 games. Kansas senior QB Carter Stanley ranks among the top 10 QB's statistically in Kansas history. He should be helped by a switch in offensive coordinators that has a more aggressive approach. Stanley has a pair of capable WR's in Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson Jr. plus one of the best running backs in the conference, Pooka Williams. |
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10-11-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 60 m | Show |
Give me Virgina, the superior team that is on extra rest and taking points here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to stew about their last game, a disappointing 35-20 loss to 10th-ranked Notre Dame. Virginia has an excellent dual threat QB in Bryce Perkins and a strong defense that ranks second in sacks with 24 and is 10th in total defense. I like Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall especially with extra prep time. Miami is on short rest having played last Saturday. The Hurricanes exerted a lot of energy in a valiant comeback from a four-touchdown deficit to lose, 42-35, to Virginia Tech. If you discount their game against non Division I opponent Bethune Cookman, the Hurricanes have been outscored on the season. The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt sophomore QB N'Kosi Perry. It's his first start for Miami this season. The Cavaliers defeated a better Miami team last season, 16-13, at home. The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS against opponents with a winning record. Virginia has covered in its last four visits to Miami.
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10-05-19 | UMass v. Florida International -26 | Top | 0-44 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show |
UMass won its first game of the season last week beating Akron at home as a 9 1/2-point underdog, 37-29. The Minutemen are terrible, though, and I want to fade them off that victory. UMass had lost its previous four games by 34 points to Coastal Carolina, by 35 points to Charlotte, by 25 points to Southern Illinois and by 27 points to Rutgers. Florida International was idle last week. The Golden Panthers have covered the past four times following a bye. They are 3-0 under Butch Davis after a bye. The Golden Panthers can't slip here if they want to have a realistic shot of a bowl bid. Davis has stressed that to his team. James Morgan looked good for Florida International in a loss to Louisiana Tech going 29-for-41 with 394 yards passing and three touchdowns in its last game. Morgan had been out with an ankle injury. Morgan entered the season as one of the better QB's in Conference USA. UMass is starting third-stringer Michael Curtis at QB. The Minutemen are in rebuild mode starting seven true freshmen, most of any FBS team. UMass ranks 115th in yards gained and is second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed and points given up.
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09-28-19 | Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards. The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup. Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards. The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos.
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09-27-19 | San Jose State v. Air Force -18 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season. Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again. The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force.
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09-21-19 | Louisville v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.
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09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -103 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games. Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC. The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday. Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups.
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09-19-19 | Houston +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr. Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents. The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane. Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.
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09-07-19 | Nevada v. Oregon -23.5 | Top | 6-77 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks. The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here.
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09-06-19 | Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week. The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA. While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers.
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Push | 0 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games.
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09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 172 h 41 m | Show |
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.
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08-30-19 | Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 47 m | Show |
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +5.5 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 115 h 3 m | Show |
Clemson isn't getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Tigers are every bit as good - if not better - than Alabama. Yes, the SEC is a better football conference than the ACC. No argument there. But I will argue the Tigers passed a tough schedule with flying colors beating 10 Bowl teams, eight of them by 20 or more points. Clemson is every bit as dominating as Alabama ranking fourth in points scored while giving up the fewest points per game in the nation. The Tigers have proven themselves huge money-winners in the postseason, too, covering eight of their last nine bowl games. Alabama's defense showed some vulnerability against Oklahoma. True, the Sooners have a great offense. But so does Clemson. I like Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence much more than Kelly Bryant. The Tide defeated Clemson, 24-6, in the Sugar Bowl last season when Bryant was behind center. This time around it will be much different.
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
I want Ohio State going for me in Urban Meyer's final game as Buckeyes coach and the price isn't too high to get it. The Pac 12 is down this season. That's reflected in the bowls. Washington is one-dimensional relying on a strong defense. But Ohio State has a great offense ranking No. 2 in the nation in yards gained and seventh in points. The Buckeyes average 17 points more per game than the Huskies and play in the stronger conference in my view. If the Huskies fall behind early they are in big trouble because they lack an explosive offense. When motivated the Buckeyes can beat any team with the exception of Alabama and Clemson. Washington isn't close to being in that class. The Huskies lost to Auburn, Oregon and California. Ohio State displayed its power by burying Michigan, 62-39, in its last game. I see a class difference here. Throw in the huge motivating factor to get Meyer a victory in his finale and I'll lay the points.
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is not a very good Virginia Tech team. The Hokies just were able to sneak into a bowl game. I find Cincinnati to not only be the superior team, but the more motivated one. The Bearcats surrendered 152 fewer yards per game than the Hokies. Cincinnati gave up fewer than 17 points a game, while Virginia Tech allowed nearly 32 points per game. The Hokies can be run on and passed on yielding more than 220 yards both ways. Cincinnati has the skill position talent to exploit Virginia Tech's vulnerable defense with dual threat quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren II. The Bearcats also have the best pass rusher in the game in Cortez Broughton and an excellent punter, James Smith. When Virginia Tech loses it is not by a close count. All of the Hokies' six defeats came by 10 or more points.
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12-28-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Washington State | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 16 m | Show |
There are many reasons to like Iowa State against Washington State especially when the wrong team is favored. Iowa State played in the tougher conference and faced a tougher schedule. The Pac-12 was extremely weak this year. Washington State is a one-dimensional passing team. This is a reflection on its coach, Mike Leach. Iowa State is used to facing passing teams being in the Big 12. The Cyclones have a solid defense. They held West Virginia and Baylor to 14 points each. If the Cyclones can stop Will Grier like they did, they can slow down Gardner Minshew. I find Leach to be an overrated coach. I base much of this opinion on his being 1-7 ATS in his last eight bowl games. The long layoff from the end of the regular season to the bowl game is a real negative for Washington State, throwing off its timing in the passing game. The Cougars are averaging just 16.3 points during their past three bowl games. Washington State was hoping to play in the Rose Bowl. The Cougars had to settle for this minor Alamo Bowl game after losing 28-15 at home to long-time Pac 12 rival Washington. So the Cougars may not be fully motivated. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy proved himself this season with a 16-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in eight games. He has a pair of tremendous skill position weapons in running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler. I also like Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. His Cyclones have covered 69 percent of the time in the 36 past instances when they were underdogs of three points or higher. |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Care to lay points with an 8-4 American Athletic Conference school against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, who owns victories this season against bowl teams Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami? I sure don't. That's one reason I'm taking the points with Duke against Temple in the Independence Bowl. Please note this game goes early Thursday. The Blue Devils are going for their third straight bowl win. They have a tremendous bowl and underdog coach in David Cutcliffe, whose teams have covered 60 percent of the time the past 80 times they have been underdogs. Cutcliffe's teams are 8-2 ATS, too, in bowl games. Temple, by contrast, has a messed-up coaching situation. Ed Foley will be coaching just his second game as Owls head coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech. The Owls' biggest wins were against Maryland, which finished with a losing record in the down Big Ten, and Houston. The Cougars just got blasted, 70-14, by Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. It's clear Duke has played a far tougher schedule. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones is a pro prospect. Wrong team favored in my view.
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
Minnesota ranks 74th in run defense. The Gophers give up 5.2 yards per run, second-worst among all bowl team. And these numbers include the Gophers having their best defensive player, senior linebacker Blake Cashman, who is sitting out this game in preparation for the NFL draft. Cashman was in on 104 tackles. If you can't stop the run, you can't beat Georgia Tech with its unique triple-option attack. The Yellow Jackets are the No. 1 rushing team in the country averaging 335 yards on the ground. Minnesota's defense isn't that good to begin with and now facing Georgia Tech and without Cashman it is in real trouble. The Yellow Jackets have an underrated defense ranking 45th in total yards. The Gophers were 89th in yards gained. The topper is the Yellow Jackets will be highly motivated to bury the Gophers as a sendoff to their coach, Paul Johnson. He is retiring after this game.
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
Current form and superior defense are two keys in projecting bowl winners. So is pedigree. Marshall has all these factors going and the spread is low enough to back the Thundering Herd. Marshall has won and covered each of its last six bowl games under Doc Holliday. Holliday is a coach you can count on. South Florida is in terrible form. The Bulls were bogus when they opened 7-0. That was proven when they finished the regular-season with five straight losses, all by double-digits. The Thundering Herd own a huge defensive advantage. They rank 31st in the country in fewest points allowed at 22 per game. South Florida ranks 92nd in points given up at 31.5. That number shoots up to 39.6 if you count just the Bulls' last five games. |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show |
Credit to Herm Edwards for doing an excellent job with Arizona State. But the Sun Devils are not in Fresno State's class. Fresno State is holding foes to 13.7 points a game this season. That's the second-best scoring defense in the nation. Arizona State surrendered 12 more points per game than the Bulldogs. The Sun Devils will be without their best player with wide receiver N'Keal Harry deciding to skip the game in order to prepare for the NFL draft where he is expected to go in the first round. I'm not that high on ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins especially since he won't have Harry anymore. An insight into this matchup could come with common opponents. Both teams played San Diego State at home. Fresno State beat the Aztecs, 23-14, and had a 108-yard advantage, where as the Sun Devils lost 28-21 to the Aztecs and were outgained, 440-377. Each team also played UCLA. Fresno State whipped the Bruins, 38-14, on the road while outgaining them by 150 yards. ASU nipped the Bruins, 31-28, while playing at home and only outgained them by 41 yards.
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
Northern Illinois has lost two in a row, but the Huskies are laying in the weeds. They've been pointing to this matchup, the MAC title game. Note the game is at a neutral site, Ford Field in Detroit. Buffalo has the better record and the flashier quarterback in Tyree Jackson. Northern Illinois, though, has the best defense in the MAC. Jackson is turnover prone and hasn't faced a defense this good. Jackson has a stud wideout, Anthony Johnson. But look for Northern Illinois to cause Jackson problems with its pass rush and linebackers. The situation favors Northern Illinois, too. Buffalo played last week. Northern Illinois has been idle since Nov. 20. This also is the Bulls' third straight road appearance and fourth different venue in their last four games. The Huskies nipped the Bulls, 14-13, at Buffalo last season. The combination of the superior defense and running of Tre Harbison - who has rushed for 950 yards while averaging 5.4 yards a carry - should carry the Huskies to a cover if not an outright victory.
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11-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State +7 | Top | 6-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
Kansas State is a must-win mode if it wants to make it nine straight years of going to a bowl game. The Wildcats have a strong history of covering as a 'dog under Bill Snyder and they surely won't lack motivation here with speculation this could be Snyder's final home game. He could be retiring after 27 years of coaching. So this is going to be an emotional setting at Bill Snyder Family Memorial Stadium. Kansas State has lost three games by a combined nine points. The Wildcats have the superior rushing attack - led by Alex Barnes one the best running backs in the country - and better defense. Texas Tech has been regressing. The Red Raiders have lost three in a row. They are likely not to have injured quarterback Alan Bowman available. He's recovering from a lung injury. Kansas State has won the last three in the series, including winning 42-35 at Texas Tech last season.
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +8.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
SMU has come on be tied for first in the AAC West Conference. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks is having a nice season with 1,919 yards and 16 TD passes of which 10 have come during the past four games. The Mustangs have a deep crop of running backs, too. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and lacks the defense to cover this big of a road number. The Tigers' record has been fattened up by the weak foes they have played such as Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama, UConn, East Carolina and Tulsa.
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Back in Week 2, Ball State hung in against Notre Dame losing, 24-16. Since then, though, things have gone way downhill for the Cardinals. They are 2-6 since that close loss and out of conference and bowl contention. Their starting quarterback, Riley Neal, is out with a knee injury and their top running back, James Gilbert, has been demoted to second team after missing last week's game with a back injury. Ball State has gotten blasted in its last two games losing, 52-14 to Ohio and 45-13 to Toledo. The Cardinals have two games left and their coaching staff has made it known they are going to be looking at younger players. There are inexperienced players in the secondary and in the offensive line. Western Michigan needs this game to keep its MAC West Division title hopes alive and also secure a bowl bid. The Broncos buried the Cardinals, 55-3, last season. The Broncos are treating this as their most important game of the season.
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 10 m | Show |
Stop Georgia Tech on the ground and you beat the Yellow Jackets. Miami has done that in each of the last three seasons beating Georgia Tech three times in a row. The Hurricanes have a tremendous trio of three-year starting linebackers in Zach McCloud, Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman. They've helped the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in tackles for losses, being No. 2 in total defense and 19th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 points per game. The last time Georgia Tech faced a defense this good was in Week 4 when it lost 49-21 to Clemson. No, Miami isn't nearly as good as Clemson. But the Hurricanes are good where it counts against this opponent, who they have owned the last three seasons. Georgia Tech has no choice but to run the ball. They are a one-dimensional option offense. Hurricanes coach Mark Richt knows Georgia Tech's offense well from his days coaching at Georgia. The key for Miami is getting good enough quarterback play. That should happen with the decision to go with N'Kosi Perry as the starter this week. He's more talented than Malik Rosier.
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Fresno State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That's helped make the Bulldogs a road favorite here. But that should come with a disclaimer: The Bulldogs haven't faced a decent quarterback or offense. Now they draw the Broncos and Brett Rypien, who is on the verge of becoming the Mountain West's all-time passing yardage leader. Boise State ranks 21st in points per game and 22nd in yards per game. Fresno State hasn't won during its last nine tries at Boise State. The teams last met at Boise State in last season's Mountain West title game. The Broncos were 10-point home favorites - a swing of nearly two touchdowns from the line on this game - and defeated the Bulldogs, 17-14. Fresno State is good. But so is Boise State. The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS at home. But they haven't been a home 'dog before. And they shouldn't be here.
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11-03-18 | Houston -14 v. SMU | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
Houston wins because of its high-scoring offense. The Cougars have scored 40-plu points in eight straight games. They rank first in the country in total yards and No. 2 in scoring. Houston quarterback D'eriq King has had at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing TD in every game this year. The Cougars have an excellent track record on the road going 23-10-1 (70%) in their past 34 away matchups. SMU needs to play ball-control and have a balanced offense to hang with the Cougars. But the Mustangs don't have that. They are averaging 98.6 yards on the ground, which ranks 123rd. SMU is averaging fewer than 50 yards rushing in its last three games. The Mustangs are poorly-coached - 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games - and have given up eight-non defensvie touchdowns, including four pick-six interceptions off Ben Hicks.
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
Western Kentucky has frustrated Middle Tennessee State for three straight years, including defeating the Blue Raiders, 41-38, last season in triple overtime. Now the table is set for the Blue Raiders to get their revenge in a big way. The Hilltoppers are a dead team done in by the disastrous coaching of Mike Sanford. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. The Hilltoppers are not bowl eligible for the first time in eight years. Middle Tennessee State senior quarterback Brent Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders to a 16-7 record since 2016 in games he has been healthy in. Yet he's 0-3 career-wise versus Western Kentucky. Stockstill is one of the better quarterbacks in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders trail Florida International by just one game in the East Division of that conference. Their offense has a good balance to it with the emergence of running back Terelle West. Western Kentucky can't keep up averaging fewer than 20 points a game. The Hilltoppers give up nearly 30 points on defense. They've allowed 40, 37 and 38 points in their last three games. They can't match the Blue Raiders on either side of the ball. Middle Tennessee State has a good history in these type situations covering six of the last seven times at home versus foes with a losing road mark.
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10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 1 m | Show |
Recall if you will last season after Auburn beat Georgia, 40-17. The Bulldogs came back from that beatdown to post four straight wins and covers to reach the national championship game. I see the Bulldogs bouncing back against Florida here. Georgia was idle last week after suffering its first loss of the season to LSU in its previous game. LSU kept Georgia in check that game. But the Bulldogs offense is too good to be held down a second consecutive game. Florida ranks 73rd in run defense. The Bulldogs have a stable of outstanding running backs headed by D'Andre Swift. Georgia can beat Florida on the ground, or through the air behind Jake Fromm if the Gators bring their safeties into the box. I don't see Florida's offense keeping up with a Bulldogs defense that gives up the 13th-fewest points per game at 16.3. The Bulldogs crushed the Gators, 42-7, last season.
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
There is plenty of value here with Boston College being this big of an underdog when it should actually be favored. The facts are these: The Eagles are 4-0 at home and 5-2 overall. Their two losses have been to North Carolina State and Purdue. No shame in that especially since Purdue just upset Ohio State. Boston College gets back star running back AJ Dillon from an ankle injury. Look for the Eagles' offensive line and ground game to control the line of scrimmage against the Hurricanes. This is the best running attack Miami has seen all season. The warm-weathered Hurricanes will be playing in low 40-degree weather. They are are 1-4 in their last five road games and going up against an emotionally-charged Boston College and atmosphere. The game is being called "Red Bandanna/Service Day Game" to honor Welles Crowther, who was a former BC lacrosse player who saved the lives of several people during the 9-11 attacks before perishing. Miami is going to have to contend with this road setting while still trying to get its quarterback situation settled. Malik Rosier is going to get the start after N'Kosi Perry's poor play in the Hurricanes' last game, a 16-13 road loss to Virginia. Rosier isn't a very good passer either. He's completing just 52 percent of his throws.
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10-20-18 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
Kentucky is going through heady times right now ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in more than 10 years in football. This has made the Wildcats overvalued in this rivalry matchup. Kentucky is at its worst in a favorite's role failing to cover the past eight times during the last two seasons. Vanderbilt can play. Just ask Notre Dame, which is ranked higher than Kentucky. The Commodores lost to the Irish, 22-17. Vanderbilt has excellent skill position players with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb. I'm not a fan of Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats rely heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. They are a one-dimensional team that the Commodores can handle.
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10-13-18 | Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio.
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10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Utah was impressive in knocking off Stanford on the road last week. But that victory has made the Utes overpriced in this matchup against Arizona, which has come on to win and cover three of its last four games after opening 0-2 under its new coach, Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin attempt to turn Khalil Tate into more passer than runner has drawn a lot of attention. What has been going under the radar is Arizona's defense, which is giving up 18.3 points per game during its first three Pac-12 Conference games. Utah leads the Pac-12 in total defense and is No. 2 in scoring defense. Tate has had half the season to get comfortable as a dual threat. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes, but his rushing yards are way down. The Utes, though, still have to respect his legs along with those of J.J. Taylor, who is the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the No. 3 rushing team in the Pac-12. They can hang with Utah. The Utes have covered only once the past five times hosting Arizona.
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09-29-18 | Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
No this isn't a misprint. Purdue really is more than a field goal road favorite against Nebraska. Perhaps the line is justified giving how disappointing Nebraska has been under Scott Frost opening 0-3 and that Purdue is coming off a 30-13 victory against previously unbeaten Boston College. That was the Boilermakers' largest win margin of a ranked opponent in 19 years. But enough factors are at work here that I am confident in projecting Nebraska to win. The Cornhuskers wouldn't look so bad if they were 2-1. But the final moments of their games against Troy and Colorado went against them. The Cornhuskers then laid an egg against Michigan during their first road game. Michigan played well and steamrolled Nebraska. I see the Cornhuskers bouncing back here at home. Nebraska freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has tremendous potential and is the right quarterback to operate the team's spread offense. This is the type of offense Purdue has trouble against. Martinez is a dual threat and has some of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten to throw to, including Stanley Morgan. He might be the No. 1 wideout in the conference. On defense, Nebraska has the pass rushers to bother David Blough, who needs a clean pocket to be effective.
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech can put up points sparked by quarterback J'Mar Smith and running back Jaqwis Dancy. They've help the Bulldogs average 42 points. Skip Holtz has taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons. The Bulldogs have hung with other SEC foes during the past two seasons losing by one point to South Carolina last year and to Arkansas by one point two seasons ago. This is an in-state game that Louisiana Tech is going to take far more serious than LSU, which is in a letdown spot and also caught in a division sandwich. The Tigers pulled out a one-point road victory against Auburn last week as a double-digit 'dog by scoring nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU hosts Mississippi next week. That's an SEC matchup the Tigers will be pointing to not this non-conference game. Note, too, LSU has yet to commit a turnover in three games. That's hard to sustain.
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
What is the oddsmaker trying to tell you by making USC, which is 1-2 and hasn't looked sharp, more than a field goal favorite against unbeaten Washington State? They are saying the Trojans are the superior team. I believe that, too. I envision the Trojans playing their best game of the season. Washington State has played far weaker competition than USC having beaten Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, an FCS team. By contrast, USC has taken on Stanford and Texas during the last two weeks. Both of those losses came on the road. Now the Trojans are at the LA Coliseum where they have won 17 in a row, including 12 straight versus Pac-12 foes. This will be the fourth start for J.T. Daniels, one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in the country. Daniels has tremendous talent and dangerous receivers. USC's running backs are better than they have shown so far especially Stephen Carr. Washington State no longer has its star quarterback, Luke Falk. Gardner Minshew, a transfer from East Carolina, has done well as the Cougars' quarterback. But this is a real step-up game for him. The Trojans have an overall talent edge and bursting frustration that is ready to be let loose here.
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford just isn't Bryce Love. KJ Costello has become a star quarterback and he has one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cardinal rolled past San Diego State, 31-10, last week despite Love rushing for only 29 yards. Costello and Arcega-Whiteside made up for that teaming up for 226 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Costello not only has great skill position weapons, but a strong offensive line. USC can't match that firepower with freshman J.T. Daniels making his first road start. The Trojans just led UNLV by five points in the fourth quarter before pulling away although failing to cover the spread. Stanford was perfect at home last season. The Cardinal also have double revenge from last season. USC coach Clay Helton has a terrible record when taking points. The Trojans are 1-8 SU and ATS since 2015 as underdogs.
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09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10 | Top | 56-20 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat.
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
I see these teams as near even with Notre Dame slightly better. So I'll gladly accept points here. I like Notre Dame's running back depth better and offensive line where they have two projected first-round draft picks. Guard Quenton Nelson is expected to be the first offensive linemen selected in the draft. I also prefer Brandon Wimbush to Danny Etling at quarterback. The statistics of these two teams are very close. Notre Dame, though, has a clear edge in averaging 6.4 yards per run while allowing 4.0 yards compared to LSU averaging 4.9 and 3.9 defensively. The key is who runs the ball better and that's another checkmark for Notre Dame, which rates seventh-best in the nation. Strength of schedule also favors the Irish. This was not a great year in the SEC. LSU had its worst losses against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Tigers also were shocked by Troy. The Irish are the healthier team, too, especially at linebacker. The line is shaded towards LSU because Notre Dame lost late games against Stanford and Miami both on the road. The Irish are refreshed and have regrouped now. They are the team worth backing.
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12-29-17 | NC State -6.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 28 m | Show |
North Carolina State is a superior team to Arizona State. Now throw in the Sun Devils coaching upheaval and I see North Carolina State winning this game by more than a touchdown. The Wolfpack were in national playoff contention, but couldn't beat Notre Dame and Clemson. No shame in that. The Wolfpack aren't in that elite class. But they are a level higher than Arizona State. North Carolina State has bowl experience winning bowl games in two of the past three seasons. The Wolfpack field one of the most experienced teams in the country with 22 seniors. These seniors have accomplished going to a bowl three straight seasons so they want to end their college careers on a high note. Ryan Finley threw for more than 3,000 yards for North Carolina State this season while completing nearly 64 percent of his passes. He has a deep group of receivers, who can take advantage of Arizona State's 118th pass defense. The Sun Devils ranked 88th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game. North Carolina State's defense is much stronger giving up fewer than 25 points per game and ranking 28th in run defense. The Wolfpack have a stout defensive line and ASU allowed the 10th-most sacks in the country. The kicker here is Arizona State's coaching situation. The Sun Devils fired Todd Graham and hired Herm Edwards, which was a bizarre hire in my opinion. The Sun Devils' offensive coordinator, Billy Napier, and defensive coordinator, Phil Bennett, then left the program. Napier departed to accept the head coaching job at Louisiana-Lafayette and Bennett left for personal reasons. So newcomer Edwards doesn't have either of his coordinators.
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
These are two strong defensive teams. Stanford is holding foes to 21.5 point a game, 25th-best in the country. The oddsmaker, of course, knows this. That's why we have a relatively low total here. So points matter. And I'll gladly accept them with Stanford, who I rate as better than TCU. Stanford has gone to a bowl game nine straight seasons. The Cardinal has won their last three bowl games. I really like them as underdogs in the David Shaw era as they've covered 80 percent of the time in 15 games in that role under Shaw. Stanford beat Washington by eight points and Notre Dame by 18 as an underdog this season while also covering as a 'dog against USC in the Pac-12 championship game. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has failed to step up in big games. His worst games came away from home, too. I prefer Stanford's power ground attack headed by speedster Bryce Love. The Horned Frogs are not used to facing this type of offense. They play an unorthodox 3-3-5 defense. This defense is geared to stop the numerous spread offenses in the Big 12 not the type of offense Stanford employs.
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
Missouri is overrated and Texas' Tom Herman is one of the great underdog coaches. The Tigers haven't beaten a good team all season. All of their SEC victories were against sub .500 teams. Texas has a much better defense than Missouri and I like Herman far more than Tigers coach Barry Odom. If you go back to when he was Ohio State's offensive coordinator and go through when he was the head man at Houston and now at Texas, Herman is an astounding 15-1 ATS (94%) as an underdog. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in run defense. They held five opponents to 14 points or less. Texas' defense will be able to handle Missouri's spread attack having faced multiple spread offenses this season along with great quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Texas went 3-0 ATS against those quarterbacks holding USC to 24 points in regulation, Oklahoma to under 30 points and Oklahoma State to 10 points in regulation, which was 36 points under the Cowboys' season average. The Longhorns have their quarterbacks healthy and are facing an inferior defensive team. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen gets the publicity. That's partly why the Cowboys are favored here. But Allen is a better pro prospect than college player. I find him to be overhyped due in part from a drop in statistics from his junior season plus having a mediocre offensive line and lack of playmakers surrounding him. He's also not 100 percent bothered by a sore shoulder. The Cowboys' leading rusher produced just 474 yards and they had only one receiver with more than 27 receptions. By contrast, Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris is surrounded by skill position weapons. The Chippewas improved as the season went on. They enter this bowl game playing their best ball winning and covering their past five games. Central Michigan averaged 41.2 points in its past five games. The Chippewas beat good MAC teams, too, during this stretch defeating Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan by a combined 26 points. The spot isn't bad either for the Chippewas. They are more excited and motivated to be traveling to a bowl game while this venue is a letdown for Wyoming, which played in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego last season. I consider Central Michigan to be the superior team. So getting points is a nice bonus.
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11-18-17 | New Mexico State v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | Top | 34-47 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money in seven of the past eight meetings. That should be the case again this year as I see no justification for making New Mexico State a road favorite against Louisiana Lafayette. The Aggies were road favorites against Georgia Southern and Texas State. Those two teams are a combined 2-17. The Ragin' Cajuns are a clear cut above those bottom feeders. Each team is 4-5 trying hard to get two more victories to become bowl eligible. Lafayette still has a chance to claim a share of the Sun Belt Conference title and has a much better pedigree than New Mexico State having gone to a bowl game in five of the last six seasons. This also is Lafayette's homecoming game. The Aggies have a poor November history, too, failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times during November. The Ragin' Cajuns are off a bad road loss to Mississippi, but had four players suspended for that game, including their starting running back and leading rusher Trey Ragas. They will have them all back for this matchup. Ragas will be fresh, too. New Mexico State has the better passer in Tyler Rogers. But he's thrown 15 interceptions. That's more than twice as many interceptions as the Ragin' Cajuns quarterbacks have thrown.
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11-02-17 | Idaho +18 v. Troy | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Earlier this season, Troy became the first Sun Belt Conference team in history to crack The Associated Press Top 25. The Trojans acheived this by stunning LSU, 24-21, as a three-touchdown road 'dog on Sept. 30. The Trojans proceeded to lose their next game, 19-8, to South Alabama as 18-point home favorites. South Alabama is the one common foe Idaho and Troy have. The Vandals defeated South Alabama, 29-23, on the road. There are other reasons why I like the Vandals here in such a heavy underdog role. Situation, motivation, matchup analysis and line value all are handicapping factors. This is a dangerous spot for Troy. The Trojans celebrated their homecoming game with a 38-16 home victory against Georgia Southern this past Saturday. The win was significant because it marked the first time the Trojans have beat the Eagles since 1992. More important, it pushed the Trojans' record to 6-2 making them bowl eligible. It's a quick turnabout now for the Trojans playing on Thursday. You have to wonder how motivated they will be following that important victory? Idaho, though, won't have any problem getting up for this game. It's rare national exposure for the Vandals. They need to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible. It's also the Vandals' last season playing in the FBS. They drop down to FCS next season as part of a cost-cutting decision. Studying the matchup, I find Idaho to be underrated while Troy is perhaps perceived higher than it really should be due to the LSU victory. The Trojans are 6-2, but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS). Troy has a solid defense, but its offense has regressed. The Trojans have been without their best runner, Jordan Chunn, the past two games. Idaho has the quarterback edge with Matt Linehan. He's a pro prospect and on track to become Idaho's all-time leading passer. Linehan has completed nearly 61 percent of his throws with a 14-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's probably the best quarterback Troy has faced all season. Contrast Linehan with Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers, who has just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked 11 times. The Trojans average 25 points, which ranks them 89th. Idaho averages 23.6 points while giving up an average of 30.6 points. The Vandals' overall statistics are skewed by two terrible performances versus UNLV and Missouri. If you discount those games and in fairness throw out Idaho's 28-6 opening-week victory against Sacramento State, the Vandals would be surrendering 25.4 points a game. The oddsmaker is asking Troy to give up a lot of points in a game that has a relatively low total. The Trojans have scored more than 27 points three times this season. If they were to score 30 points they still would have a hard time covering this number considering Linehan's talent level that ensures Idaho of getting its share of points. Idaho often is overlooked. The Vandals quietly have covered 80 percent of their last 16 games going 12-3-1 ATS. Troy, on the other hand, has failed to cover during its past six home games.
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10-14-17 | New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV -12 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 93 h 18 m | Show |
UNLV received a lot of bad publicity for losing to Howard in its first game. The Rebels were caught looking ahead to a revenge game against Idaho the following week. The Rebels beat Idaho and then were bashed by Ohio State this past Saturday. But now there couldn't be more of a difference as the Rebels go from on the road against the Buckeyes to hosting San Jose State. The Spartans are one of the worst teams in the country. The Rebels are a borderline bowl team. They can't afford a loss here and are aware of the spread after losing to Howard as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels have the offense to pour it on the Spartans, who give up 45.2 points per game and whose defense has been on the field the most of any team in the country by a wide margin. Utah State just beat the Spartans by 51 points this past Saturday. UNLV isn't strong defensively, but San Jose State averages fewer than 17 points a game and has quarterback problems. This is a lay-up game for the Rebels and they won't take their foot off the gas with the recent loss to Howard still fresh.
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09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -13.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
Before Mike Riley perhaps slinks back off to Oregon State, his Cornhusker should stop-the-pain given their home field advantage and lowly opponent, Rutgers. Nebraska is coming off back-to-back non-league losses to Oregon and a double-digit home upset loss to Northern Illinois. The last time the Cornhuskers lost two in a row non-conference games was 1957. Riley and Nebraska are under extreme pressure to perform better. Fortunately the Cornhuskers draw Big Ten patsy Rutgers. The last time the Scarlet Knights won a Big Ten game was 2015. Rutgers has lost 14 consecutive Big Ten contests. The Cornhuskers have underachieved all season. But they certainly have the talent to bury Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are in a different frame of mind after snapping a nation-long 11-game loss streak with a victory against Morgan State.
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09-09-17 | Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
Minnesota is the right side here. The Gophers aren't flashy. But they don't need to be here. They will control the trenches and dominate ball possession with a solid ground game featuring Rodney Smith running behind a strong offensive line. Oregon State has yet to show it can stop the run. The Beavers were pushed around by Colorado State and by Portland State, a FCS school. Oregon State's 58-27 opening week loss to Colorado State looks even worse with the Rams losing to Colorado, 17-3, last week. Oregon State was fortunate to beat Portland State winning, 35-32, as a 26 1/2-point home favorite. Portland State ran for nearly 300 yards against Oregon State. Minnesota's P.J. Fleck is an upper tier coach. He's sharp enough to play the cards he's dealt with - and that's to grind. That formula sets up well for this matchup. The Gophers don't have to do anything fancy here. Oregon State's home field advantage is reduced, too, for this game because school isn't in session yet and there is an air quality warning due to forest fires in the area that could lower attendance.
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 133 h 6 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Colorado State having opened with a victory this past Saturday against Oregon State in impressive style at their new $220 million dollar stadium. The Rams have to travel to Denver for this neutral site game with one less day of normal practice time. That's going to hurt them against the up-tempo Buffaloes especially in high altitude. Colorado buried the Rams, 44-7, last year. While I don't see the score being that lopsided again, Colorado is a clear right side and should win by double-digits. Don't be fooled by the Rams returning nine starters on defense. Their defense still is inexperienced and not good. The Buffaloes have a high powered attack with excellent receiving depth, a stud running back in Phillip Lindsay and an upgrade at quarterback with Sefo Liufau. Colorado State isn't going to be able to trade points with the Bufaloes.
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08-31-17 | Buffalo +24 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
There's some hype here this being P.J. Fleck's first game as head coach of Minnesota. I like Fleck. But his Gophers are far from a powerhouse. They can't cover a number this high against an improved Buffalo squad. Fleck inherits a very young team with only four players on offense and four on defense who have started double-digit games during their careers. Nearly half of Minnesota's players are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The Gophers have a solid ground attack, but are untested at quarterback. Denny Croft and Conor Rhoda both should play under center. They've combined for only 34 career throws and one start. Minnesota ranked 111th in passing offense last year. Buffalo should be much better than its 2-10 mark of last season. Tyree Jackson is a dual threat quarterback, who flashed last season. His new quarterback coach is Jim Zebrowski, who was fired at Minnesota following the 2015 season. So he'll know the Gophers. The Bulls took their lumps defensively last season being extremely young. They return eight defensive starters.
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12-31-16 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl pedigree can't be underestimated. Georgia Tech and its veteran coach, Paul Johnson, know all about bowl competition. Georgia Tech has been to a bowl during 19 of the last 20 years. Kentucky hasn't been in a bowl game since 2010. The Wildcats are just relieved to received a bowl bid. The Wildcats' season was made when they upset in-state rival Louisville, 41-38. Note, though, Louisville gained 561 yards on the Wildcats rushing for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. SEC teams such as Kentucky don't face triple option offenses such as Georgia Tech's. I don't see the Wildcats being able to stop the Yellow Jackets. Kentucky surrenders more than 31 points per game. Their rush defense ranks 109th and their total defense is 89th allowing more than 442 yards per game. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards averaging 257.4. The Yellow Jackets have come on after a slow start to go 5-1. I like the experience and dual threat ability of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas. I like Johnson as a coach. Quarterback and coach are two edges Georgia Tech has going. Kentucky lost by three points at home to fellow SEC foe Georgia while Georgia Tech defeated the Bulldogs on the road.
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3 | Top | 38-8 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
Playing in a bowl game, especially a minor one such as this, is no big deal for Oklahoma State. This will be the 11th straight year the Cowboys have gone bowling under Mike Gundy. This game is a big deal for Colorado, though. The Buffaloes suffered during their first five years in the Pac-12 while coach Mike MacIntyre was laying a foundation. Everything came together for the Buffaloes this season as they went 10-3 and captured the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes were dominated by top-four power Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury early in that game and didn't play well. He'll be fine here and the Buffaloes have huge motivation to erase the stigma of that Pac-12 title game loss and capture their first bowl win since 2004. The Buffaloes will be ready for prime time after getting some tough experience with it during the Pac-12 championship game. That loss and national exposure provided needed big-game experience for them. Colorado has covered in 11 of its last 14 games and is 7-2 ATS the past nine times when taking on above .500 opponents. Incentive isn't enough, though, to just go with Colorado. I see the Buffaloes having key matchup edges. The Buffaloes and star running back Phillip Lindsay should pile up yards rushing against the Cowboys, who give up an average of 204.4 yards on the ground per game. Liufau is a good running quarterback, too, and doesn't turn the ball over. Oklahoma State has a balanced offense. Colorado, however, has proven itself against elite running backs holding both Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Utah's Joe Williams to less than 100 yards rushing. The Buffaloes also have the 13th best pass defense giving up just 182.2 yards through the air so Mason Rudolph won't have it easy. Oklahoma State hasn't faced a pass defense this good all season.
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12-28-16 | Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
While I respect Pittsburgh's offense its defense isn't good enough to keep Northwestern from pulling the upset. Northwestern has excellent skill position talent - including running back Justin Jackson - that can take full advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that allows 35.6 points a game, ranks 97th in yards allowed and 127th in pass defense. Jackson has nearly 4,000 career rushing yards. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved immensely as the season progressed finishing with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last eight games. Pittsburgh has excellent skill position players, too, headed by its star running back, James Connor. However, the Panthers are going up against a much stronger defense as the Wildcats hold opponents to just 22.1 points a game. The Panthers also have to deal with the distraction of their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, announcing he was leaving to become offensive coordinator at LSU. Note, too, that the Panthers have failed to cover in their last six non-conference games. The Panthers also haven't defeated a Power 5 team in the postseason since 2010.
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12-27-16 | Washington State -10 v. Minnesota | Top | 12-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State. Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach. Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game. Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game. The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten. |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting. This game is being played in the Bahamas where the temperature will be in the high 70's with the humidity being close to 80. Old Dominion is used to this type of weather having played most of its games in heat. Eastern Michigan last played on Nov. 22. The Eagles have been enduring freezing weather being in an extremely cold region. They didn't fly to Nassau until a few days ago leaving snow and seven degree temperatures. Look for the Eagles to run out of gas playing in humidity they are unaccustomed to in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Old Dominion played at Eastern Michigan last season and won 38-34. The Monarchs average 36 points, which is six points more than Eastern Michigan scores per game. Old Dominion has a balanced offense. The Monarchs have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games, all victories. Defensively, Old Dominion gives up three fewer points per game than Eastern Michigan and nearly 60 fewer yards than the Eagles. Eastern Michigan relies heavily on its quarterback, Brogan Roback. Look for Old Dominion to key on him. |
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12-21-16 | BYU -10 v. Wyoming | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
The combination of BYU being strong on both sides of the ball and Wyoming being overrated - the Cowboys actually lost to UNLV - puts me on the Cougars. BYU travels well and will have strong fan support for this bowl game in San Diego. The Cougars are the more mature team with older students, which helps in bowl situations. BYU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games, while Wyoming has failed to cover seven of its last 10 nonleague games. Wyoming is 1-3 in its last four games losing by three points in overtime to UNLV on the road, splitting with San Diego State and losing at New Mexico by 21.
BYU is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cougars beat Michigan State by 17 on the road, won at Cincinnati by 17 and lost by just one point at Boise State. Both teams have outstanding running backs, Brian Hill for Wyoming and Jamaal Williams for BYU. The key here is defense. Wyoming permits 34.8 pints a game and ranks among the bottom 17 in the nation in yards allowed per game. BYU, on the other hand, holds foes to just 19.4 points per game, which was 15th-best in the country. The Cougars rank 33rd overall in total defense and are in the top-10 in run defense. Wyoming is going to have to pass well to stay with the Cougars. Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to interceptions getting picked off 13 times. I'm fine with BYU going with Tanner Mangum at quarterback instead of Taysom Hill, who was injured at the end of the regular season. Mangum has filled in well before when Hill has gotten injured. As a freshman last season, Mangum completed 60 percent of his throws for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -4.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Not only does Southern Mississippi play in the stronger conference - Conference USA - but they have a huge quarterback edge on Louisiana-Lafayette, a Sun Belt Conference team. Early bowl steam should be respected and the early money has all been on the Golden Eagles. I agree. It would have been nice to lay less than four points here, but Southern Mississippi is at least a touchdown superior to the Ragin' Cajuns. Southern Mississippi wasn't the same team when star quarterback Nick Mullens had to miss two games last month due to a concussion. But the senior returned in the regular-season finale and led the Golden Eagles to a 39-24 victory as 14 1/2-point 'dogs accounting for four touchdowns. Mullens, not Brett Favre, holds the Southern Mississippi record for touchdown passes and passing yards. Mullens can exploit a vulnerable Lafayette secondary. The Golden Eagles also have a 1,321-yard rusher in Ito Smith. Sparked by this duo, the Golden Eagles average 33.2 points a game and rank 24th in yards. Lafayette's ground-oriented offense can't match that. The Ragin' Cajuns average 10 fewer points per game and 110 yards less per contest. Lafayette's big gun on offense is running back Elijah McGuire, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards three straight seasons and scored 52 career touchdowns. Southern Mississippi's defense, though, has the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the country. The Golden Eagles also feature a top defensive lineman in Dylan Bradley. He should be highly effective operating against Lafayette's underclass interior linemen.
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12-03-16 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +7 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington -7.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game. |
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11-26-16 | Oregon -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. |
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11-25-16 | Boise State v. Air Force +9 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago. |
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11-18-16 | UNLV +28.5 v. Boise State | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 58 h 9 m | Show |
Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez. |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. |
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11-05-16 | Alabama v. LSU +8.5 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. |
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10-29-16 | Michigan v. Michigan State +24.5 | Top | 32-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 19 m | Show |
This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row. |
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10-22-16 | TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks. |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State +12 v. Colorado | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are. |
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10-08-16 | BYU v. Michigan State -5.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Baylor | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 32 m | Show |
I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team. |
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09-23-16 | USC v. Utah -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 1 m | Show |
The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. |
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09-10-16 | Washington State +10.5 v. Boise State | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 36 m | Show |
Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. |
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09-03-16 | LSU -9.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 4 m | Show |
First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. |
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09-02-16 | Colorado State v. Colorado -8.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson +7 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 136 h 0 m | Show |
Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin v. USC -3 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -120 | 326 h 27 m | Show |
USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. |
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12-28-15 | Central Michigan +4.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush. |
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12-26-15 | Tulsa +14 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State -3 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. |
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11-28-15 | Ohio State v. Michigan | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. |
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11-14-15 | Washington State +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. |
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11-07-15 | Hawaii v. UNLV -9.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels.
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Toledo | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. |