Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Back in Week 2, Ball State hung in against Notre Dame losing, 24-16. Since then, though, things have gone way downhill for the Cardinals. They are 2-6 since that close loss and out of conference and bowl contention. Their starting quarterback, Riley Neal, is out with a knee injury and their top running back, James Gilbert, has been demoted to second team after missing last week's game with a back injury. Ball State has gotten blasted in its last two games losing, 52-14 to Ohio and 45-13 to Toledo. The Cardinals have two games left and their coaching staff has made it known they are going to be looking at younger players. There are inexperienced players in the secondary and in the offensive line. Western Michigan needs this game to keep its MAC West Division title hopes alive and also secure a bowl bid. The Broncos buried the Cardinals, 55-3, last season. The Broncos are treating this as their most important game of the season.
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 10 m | Show |
Stop Georgia Tech on the ground and you beat the Yellow Jackets. Miami has done that in each of the last three seasons beating Georgia Tech three times in a row. The Hurricanes have a tremendous trio of three-year starting linebackers in Zach McCloud, Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman. They've helped the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in tackles for losses, being No. 2 in total defense and 19th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 points per game. The last time Georgia Tech faced a defense this good was in Week 4 when it lost 49-21 to Clemson. No, Miami isn't nearly as good as Clemson. But the Hurricanes are good where it counts against this opponent, who they have owned the last three seasons. Georgia Tech has no choice but to run the ball. They are a one-dimensional option offense. Hurricanes coach Mark Richt knows Georgia Tech's offense well from his days coaching at Georgia. The key for Miami is getting good enough quarterback play. That should happen with the decision to go with N'Kosi Perry as the starter this week. He's more talented than Malik Rosier.
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Fresno State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That's helped make the Bulldogs a road favorite here. But that should come with a disclaimer: The Bulldogs haven't faced a decent quarterback or offense. Now they draw the Broncos and Brett Rypien, who is on the verge of becoming the Mountain West's all-time passing yardage leader. Boise State ranks 21st in points per game and 22nd in yards per game. Fresno State hasn't won during its last nine tries at Boise State. The teams last met at Boise State in last season's Mountain West title game. The Broncos were 10-point home favorites - a swing of nearly two touchdowns from the line on this game - and defeated the Bulldogs, 17-14. Fresno State is good. But so is Boise State. The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS at home. But they haven't been a home 'dog before. And they shouldn't be here.
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 57 m | Show |
The Steelers are playing their finest ball winning and covering their last four games. Carolina is at a severe disadvantage being the visitor for this Thursday game. The Panthers have a below average passing statistics. They are vulnerable to Ben Roethlisberger, who has a strong history of playing much better at home. James Connor has more than filled in well for holdout Le'Veon Bell providing the Steelers with a balanced attack. The Panthers lack the Steelers' strong downfield passing game. Pittsburgh ranks tied for third in the AFC in sacks. Cam Newton is not an accurate passer and will be under a heavy pass rush.
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11-03-18 | Houston -14 v. SMU | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
Houston wins because of its high-scoring offense. The Cougars have scored 40-plu points in eight straight games. They rank first in the country in total yards and No. 2 in scoring. Houston quarterback D'eriq King has had at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing TD in every game this year. The Cougars have an excellent track record on the road going 23-10-1 (70%) in their past 34 away matchups. SMU needs to play ball-control and have a balanced offense to hang with the Cougars. But the Mustangs don't have that. They are averaging 98.6 yards on the ground, which ranks 123rd. SMU is averaging fewer than 50 yards rushing in its last three games. The Mustangs are poorly-coached - 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games - and have given up eight-non defensvie touchdowns, including four pick-six interceptions off Ben Hicks.
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
Western Kentucky has frustrated Middle Tennessee State for three straight years, including defeating the Blue Raiders, 41-38, last season in triple overtime. Now the table is set for the Blue Raiders to get their revenge in a big way. The Hilltoppers are a dead team done in by the disastrous coaching of Mike Sanford. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. The Hilltoppers are not bowl eligible for the first time in eight years. Middle Tennessee State senior quarterback Brent Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders to a 16-7 record since 2016 in games he has been healthy in. Yet he's 0-3 career-wise versus Western Kentucky. Stockstill is one of the better quarterbacks in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders trail Florida International by just one game in the East Division of that conference. Their offense has a good balance to it with the emergence of running back Terelle West. Western Kentucky can't keep up averaging fewer than 20 points a game. The Hilltoppers give up nearly 30 points on defense. They've allowed 40, 37 and 38 points in their last three games. They can't match the Blue Raiders on either side of the ball. Middle Tennessee State has a good history in these type situations covering six of the last seven times at home versus foes with a losing road mark.
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
Jon Gruden is desperate for a victory and he has a chance to achieve that in this nationally televised Thursday night matchup. As bad as the Raiders have been, the 49ers have even a worse record. The 49ers also are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. The Raiders have a huge quarterback edge with Derek Carr. This edge would be even greater if C.J. Beathard is a scratch because of a wrist injury. That would make second-year undrafted free agent Nick Mullens the 49ers' starting quarterback. Carr is coming off a four touchdown performance against the Cowboys and has regained his confidence. Usually it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team in the Thursday matchup. But it's different here because Oakland and San Francisco are just a little more than 12 miles apart. So travel isn't an issue for the visiting Raiders. It's the 49ers who are hurt the most by the short week because of their long injury list.
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10-28-18 | 49ers +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
There are degrees of being pathetic. The Cardinals are more pathetic than the 49ers. At least San Francisco is well-coached, plays hard all the time and doesn't have nearly the dissension and lack of confidence Arizona has. This is a huge revenge game for the 49ers. They lost to the Cardinals just three weeks ago, 28-18. The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but cost themselves by committing five turnovers. C.J. Beathard is one of the better backup quarterbacks. I would take him operating behind Kyle Shanahan's sharp schemes and decent receivers, including emerging star tight end George Kittle, than rookie Josh Rosen, who has a horrible offensive line and declining skill position players. It's not a fluke the Cardianls are last in yards gained per game and last in run defense. They are the worst team in the NFC.
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
Neither the Eagles nor Jaguars have played up to expectations this season. Both are coming off surprising home losses. I trust the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles far more than the Jaguars to bounce back in this London game. Carson Wentz is rounding into shape nearing upper-tier status again. He has far better weapons with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz than the Jaguars have especially when they remain without Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville is playing its worst ball having lost three in a row. The Jaguars defense isn't as good as it was last season. They aren't getting takeaways to set up their offense. Jacksonville's offense is a total mess because it doesn't have a quality starting quarterback. The Jaguars have produced just 28 points during their last three games. Neither turnover-prone Blake Bortles, nor weak-armed, checkdown passer Cody Kessler is the answer at quarterback. The Eagles are the much more balanced team solid on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are held hostage by their horrendous quarterback play. They don't have a quarterback on their roster who can fix the problem.
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10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 1 m | Show |
Recall if you will last season after Auburn beat Georgia, 40-17. The Bulldogs came back from that beatdown to post four straight wins and covers to reach the national championship game. I see the Bulldogs bouncing back against Florida here. Georgia was idle last week after suffering its first loss of the season to LSU in its previous game. LSU kept Georgia in check that game. But the Bulldogs offense is too good to be held down a second consecutive game. Florida ranks 73rd in run defense. The Bulldogs have a stable of outstanding running backs headed by D'Andre Swift. Georgia can beat Florida on the ground, or through the air behind Jake Fromm if the Gators bring their safeties into the box. I don't see Florida's offense keeping up with a Bulldogs defense that gives up the 13th-fewest points per game at 16.3. The Bulldogs crushed the Gators, 42-7, last season.
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
There is plenty of value here with Boston College being this big of an underdog when it should actually be favored. The facts are these: The Eagles are 4-0 at home and 5-2 overall. Their two losses have been to North Carolina State and Purdue. No shame in that especially since Purdue just upset Ohio State. Boston College gets back star running back AJ Dillon from an ankle injury. Look for the Eagles' offensive line and ground game to control the line of scrimmage against the Hurricanes. This is the best running attack Miami has seen all season. The warm-weathered Hurricanes will be playing in low 40-degree weather. They are are 1-4 in their last five road games and going up against an emotionally-charged Boston College and atmosphere. The game is being called "Red Bandanna/Service Day Game" to honor Welles Crowther, who was a former BC lacrosse player who saved the lives of several people during the 9-11 attacks before perishing. Miami is going to have to contend with this road setting while still trying to get its quarterback situation settled. Malik Rosier is going to get the start after N'Kosi Perry's poor play in the Hurricanes' last game, a 16-13 road loss to Virginia. Rosier isn't a very good passer either. He's completing just 52 percent of his throws.
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10-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Jets | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets. Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury. Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line. The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts. I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles. |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 34 m | Show |
Jacksonville still has a top-two caliber defense. The Jaguars still have their same defensive players. They just haven't been getting the huge number of takeaways and sacks they did last season. That should start to change with this matchup. DeShaun Watson isn't having the season he had last year before he got hurt. A big reason for that is he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Texans can't protect Watson. He's already heavily beat-up. Watson doesn't have a run game to fall back on either. The Jaguars are going to be super-fired up returning home after embarrassing road losses to the Chiefs and Cowboys. Blake Bortles didn't play well in those games. Bortles remains highly inconsistent. He won't have to win this game, though, because the Jaguars' defense will dominate. Bortles will be able to pick his spots against a weak secondary and with an underrated receiving corps. The Texans are very poorly coached. They could be 0-6 instead of 3-3. In the last three weeks, they've beaten the Colts in overtime on a bad coaching decision by Indy, nipped the Cowboys at home in overtime and were tied 13-13 with the Bills at home until getting an interception return for a touchdown against backup Nathan Peterman with 1:23 left to pull out that game. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games. That's a clear indication about the coaching ability of Bill O'Brien.
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10-20-18 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
Kentucky is going through heady times right now ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in more than 10 years in football. This has made the Wildcats overvalued in this rivalry matchup. Kentucky is at its worst in a favorite's role failing to cover the past eight times during the last two seasons. Vanderbilt can play. Just ask Notre Dame, which is ranked higher than Kentucky. The Commodores lost to the Irish, 22-17. Vanderbilt has excellent skill position players with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb. I'm not a fan of Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats rely heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. They are a one-dimensional team that the Commodores can handle.
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 0 m | Show |
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat. The 49ers play hard for Kyle Shanahan, but their defense has many holes and their offense is shot without Jimmy Garoppolo and multiple injuries at running back, wide receiver and in the offensive line. The Packers have a good defensive line and their secondary is much improved. C.J. Beathard doesn't have nearly the talent to keep trading points with Aaron Rodgers. |
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10-13-18 | Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio.
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10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Utah was impressive in knocking off Stanford on the road last week. But that victory has made the Utes overpriced in this matchup against Arizona, which has come on to win and cover three of its last four games after opening 0-2 under its new coach, Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin attempt to turn Khalil Tate into more passer than runner has drawn a lot of attention. What has been going under the radar is Arizona's defense, which is giving up 18.3 points per game during its first three Pac-12 Conference games. Utah leads the Pac-12 in total defense and is No. 2 in scoring defense. Tate has had half the season to get comfortable as a dual threat. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes, but his rushing yards are way down. The Utes, though, still have to respect his legs along with those of J.J. Taylor, who is the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the No. 3 rushing team in the Pac-12. They can hang with Utah. The Utes have covered only once the past five times hosting Arizona.
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition. San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday. The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach. Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14. The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes. Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 49 m | Show |
The Patriots have their swagger back after rolling past previously unbeaten Miami, 38-7, this past Sunday. It was an easy victory for New England. The Colts, though, are mentally and physically gassed after playing a full overtime and losing in heartbreak fashion to the Texans, 37-34, on Sunday. Indy's defense has played better than expected, but it is below average and wearing down. The Colts defense faced 77 plays against the Eagles two weeks ago and 84 plays on Thursday. Now the Colts have to travel on a short week to New England. It's a huge disadvantage. The Patriots may not have Rob Gronkowski , but they get back Julian Edelman from suspension. Josh Gordon should be at full speed, too. Tom Brady has the weapons to pile up points against the weary Colts even if Gronk doesn't play. The Colts need a full effort to be competitive because they lack the overall talent and experience being one of the youngest teams in the league. The Colts have a new coaching staff that still is trying to figure things out. An ill-advised fourth-and-four call from their own 44-yard line with 27 seconds left in overtime failed allowing the Texans to pull out the victory in what should have finished as a tie game. That could linger mentally with the Colts. Andrew Luck is working his way back from serious shoulder injury. Most of his passes are short. Luck has no ground attack, a porous offensive line that was without both starting tackles against the Texans and isn't expected to have his best wide receiver by far, T.Y. Hilton, nor his top tight end, Jack Doyle. The Patriots are 6-0 against the Colts since Peyton Manning left Indy. They are averaging 42.3 points against the Colts during this time span. Luck doesn't have the arm, weapons and protection time to keep pace with Brady.
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09-29-18 | Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
No this isn't a misprint. Purdue really is more than a field goal road favorite against Nebraska. Perhaps the line is justified giving how disappointing Nebraska has been under Scott Frost opening 0-3 and that Purdue is coming off a 30-13 victory against previously unbeaten Boston College. That was the Boilermakers' largest win margin of a ranked opponent in 19 years. But enough factors are at work here that I am confident in projecting Nebraska to win. The Cornhuskers wouldn't look so bad if they were 2-1. But the final moments of their games against Troy and Colorado went against them. The Cornhuskers then laid an egg against Michigan during their first road game. Michigan played well and steamrolled Nebraska. I see the Cornhuskers bouncing back here at home. Nebraska freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has tremendous potential and is the right quarterback to operate the team's spread offense. This is the type of offense Purdue has trouble against. Martinez is a dual threat and has some of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten to throw to, including Stanley Morgan. He might be the No. 1 wideout in the conference. On defense, Nebraska has the pass rushers to bother David Blough, who needs a clean pocket to be effective.
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Even on the road, I'll take Ben Roethlisberger over Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been playing well above his head. The Steelers are by far more experienced in marquee national televised games. They also are 9-1-1 in their last 11 regular season road games. The Buccaneers are beat-up in the secondary, vulnerable to Antonio Browns and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Another plus for the Steelers is the expected return of cornerback Joe Hadon, who should limit DeSean Jackson's home-run ability. Pittsburgh also has a far more dependable place-kicker.
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes. But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game. The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed. Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury. The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team. Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech can put up points sparked by quarterback J'Mar Smith and running back Jaqwis Dancy. They've help the Bulldogs average 42 points. Skip Holtz has taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons. The Bulldogs have hung with other SEC foes during the past two seasons losing by one point to South Carolina last year and to Arkansas by one point two seasons ago. This is an in-state game that Louisiana Tech is going to take far more serious than LSU, which is in a letdown spot and also caught in a division sandwich. The Tigers pulled out a one-point road victory against Auburn last week as a double-digit 'dog by scoring nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU hosts Mississippi next week. That's an SEC matchup the Tigers will be pointing to not this non-conference game. Note, too, LSU has yet to commit a turnover in three games. That's hard to sustain.
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
What is the oddsmaker trying to tell you by making USC, which is 1-2 and hasn't looked sharp, more than a field goal favorite against unbeaten Washington State? They are saying the Trojans are the superior team. I believe that, too. I envision the Trojans playing their best game of the season. Washington State has played far weaker competition than USC having beaten Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, an FCS team. By contrast, USC has taken on Stanford and Texas during the last two weeks. Both of those losses came on the road. Now the Trojans are at the LA Coliseum where they have won 17 in a row, including 12 straight versus Pac-12 foes. This will be the fourth start for J.T. Daniels, one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in the country. Daniels has tremendous talent and dangerous receivers. USC's running backs are better than they have shown so far especially Stephen Carr. Washington State no longer has its star quarterback, Luke Falk. Gardner Minshew, a transfer from East Carolina, has done well as the Cougars' quarterback. But this is a real step-up game for him. The Trojans have an overall talent edge and bursting frustration that is ready to be let loose here.
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09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago. But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team. Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive. Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight. Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3. Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers. The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good. Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money. |
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09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 151 h 59 m | Show |
The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet. The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 54 m | Show |
Forget last season's 0-16 record. The Browns are going to be much improved this season. The oddsmaker has lined their over/under win total at 5 1/2 victories. That should be an indicator right there. The Browns have been itching for this home opener all off-season having had to endure and live with last season's winless year. Talent-wise, the Browns are close to a .500 team. They were done in by a staggering minus 28 turnover ratio, worst in the NFL in 17 years. All but 13 of their 41 turnovers were committed by overmatched rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. Veteran Tyrod Taylor replaces Kizer. Taylor has a winning record as a starting NFL quarterback. Tom Brady is the only starting quarterback who has a lower interception rate than Taylor during the past three years. Taylor has just 20 turnovers during the last three years with Buffalo spanning 43 starts, an average of fewer than seven turnovers per season. By contrast, Cleveland quarterbacks had a combined 34 turnovers in 2017. Cleveland has decent talent with Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Zeitler, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward, Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. Pittsburgh has a history of playing down to its level of competition especially on the road. The Steelers just nipped a much worse Browns team opening week last year at Cleveland winning, 21-18. The Steelers lost to the Bears in their next road contest. They edged the Colts, who were playing a backup quarterback, by only three points at Indianapolis and defeated the sub .500 Bengals by three points at Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger has a staggering home/road difference. He plays far better at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger has thrown 49 more touchdown passes at home and has 14 more interceptions on the road. Roethlisberger has a new offensive coordinator for the first time in six years with Todd Haley leaving. Guess where Haley went? Cleveland. Haley knows Roethlisberger and the Steelers' tendencies as well as anyone. The Steelers were 25th in yards per rush last season despite having Le'Veon Bell, who could enter the matchup extremely rusty if he has another prolonged holdout like last year. If you discount the Steelers' last road game in which they scored 34 points against the Texans and their backup quarterback, T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than 21 points in seven of its last nine road games. Taylor has a 23-5 record when his team allows 21 or less points. Note, too, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are 1-5-1 ATS in Week 1 during the past seven years.
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford just isn't Bryce Love. KJ Costello has become a star quarterback and he has one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cardinal rolled past San Diego State, 31-10, last week despite Love rushing for only 29 yards. Costello and Arcega-Whiteside made up for that teaming up for 226 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Costello not only has great skill position weapons, but a strong offensive line. USC can't match that firepower with freshman J.T. Daniels making his first road start. The Trojans just led UNLV by five points in the fourth quarter before pulling away although failing to cover the spread. Stanford was perfect at home last season. The Cardinal also have double revenge from last season. USC coach Clay Helton has a terrible record when taking points. The Trojans are 1-8 SU and ATS since 2015 as underdogs.
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09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10 | Top | 56-20 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat.
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -103 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
Three big reasons why I like the Patriots: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and New England's defense. The first two reasons are obvious. The combination of home-field and Brady versus Blake Bortles are worthy of the point spread right there. Jacksonville's defense was outstanding during much of the regular season. But Brady is at his finest against the type of zone cover style the Jaguars use. The Jaguars' defense also has been wearing down after carrying their offense for so many games. Jacksonville has given up an average of 32 points during its last four road games. It's the Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest points since Week 5. By far, the Patriots have the more playoff experience, big-game experience and discipline. All of that is going to matter here. The Patriots can win by talent, or by scheme and coaching. The Jaguars can't outscheme the Patriots. Brady has a balanced attack. He'll be able to slice up the Jaguars' defense with quick slants and utilizing versatile Dion Lewis. The Patriots also are expected to get back wide receiver Chris Hogan and running back James White, one of the best pass-catching runners out of the backfield in the NFL. Hogan is a big upgrade on Phillip Dorsett and gives Brady another strong receiving target to go with Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola. The Jaguars' offense looked great against the Steelers last week. But Jacksonville has yet to achieve trusted consistency on offense relying heavily on rookie Leonard Fournette. Before putting up 45 points on the Steelers last week, the Jaguars had scored only 10 points during each of their last two games. The Patriots aren't going to let Fournette beat them. I don't see Bortles, one of the most inaccurate throwers in the league, and his inexperienced wide receiving corps keeping up with Brady.
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 155 h 49 m | Show |
The oddsmaker isn't giving the Vikings enough credit here. Minnesota's home field advantage is worth the spread alone - and the Vikings are much superior to the Saints. Minnesota is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Vikings are 7-1 at home, including defeating the Saints, 29-19, opening week. New Orleans has lost and failed to cover in its past three road games. The Saints are 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 2-6 ATS during their past eight games. Drew Brees is the best quarterback on the field. But he doesn't have the receiving talent he's had in past years and is going against the best defense in football. The Vikings have no weaknesses especially on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up the fewest yards per game and fewest points per game at 15.8. Minnesota also ranked No. 2 in run defense and pass defense. Case Keenum is having a magical and career season. He's mobile and can rely on two solid running backs plus good receivers headed by Adam Thielen, who had the fifth most receiving yards in the league. Stefon Diggs is highly effective when healthy, which he is, and Kyle Rudolph is one of the best red zone tight ends. Both Diggs and Rudolph scored eight touchdowns this season. Another plus for Minnesota's offense is rookie center Pat Elfein is back practicing after being out and is likely to play. He's had an outstanding season. The Saints defense is improved, but is back to being shaky due to multiple injuries and fatigue. The Saints peaked during the middle part of the season in October and November. They've only played really well once in their last seven games. They lost to the Buccaneers in Week 17 surrendering 445 yards. The Saints defense has been on the field for 152 plays during the last two weeks, a massive amount, while the Vikings enjoyed a well-earned bye this past week. The combination of being down four defensive starters from the start of season and a heavy fatigue factor is going to leave the Saints defense highly vulnerable, while the Saints offense isn't going to be able to generate enough points to stay with Minnesota being on the road and operating against the premier defense in football.
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
It's a nice story that the Bills finally made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. But, truth be told, the Bills have no business in the postseason. Buffalo was minus 57 in point differential. The Chargers, by contrast, were plus 83 in scoring differential but failed to make the playoffs. If LeSean McCoy doesn't play, the Bills will have the worst set of skill position players I've ever seen for a playoff team. Even if McCoy plays, he will be extremely limited by an ankle injury. It's not a surprise Buffalo ranked 31st in passing. Tyrod Taylor is more runner than thrower. The Bills thought so little of Taylor they benched him for Nathan Peterman in Week 11. Taylor has no decent wide receiving options. If McCoy is a no-go, the Bills' running backs will be plodding third-stringer Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy, who was just called up from the practice squad when second-string running back Travaris Cadet was lost for the season with a broken ankle in Week 16. The Jaguars give up the second-fewest points and yards per game in the league. They rank No. 1 in pass defense. I can't see the Bills putting up many points - if any - against the home Jaguars. Blake Bortles had a strong December with the exception of his last game. If you discount that performance on the road against the Titans in Week 17, Bortles had thrown nine touchdowns in his past four games. He has 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to do the heavy lifting. There's also the Doug Marrone factor. He coached the Bills from 2013-14 and so is extra familiar with Buffalo. Marrone's stay in Buffalo didn't end well so he won't be reluctant to run up a score.
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 28 m | Show |
The Titans were good at two things this season - winning at home and beating foes from their weak AFC South Division. What the Titans aren't good at is winning on the road and defeating strong opponents. Tennessee has lost and failed to cover five of its last seven away matchups. The Titans' only victories during this span were against the winless Browns in overtime and beating the four-win Colts by four points. Except for the Jaguars, the Titans didn't beat a playoff team. The Titans have just two victories since Dec. 3. They lack playoff experience, too, having last made the postseason back in 2008. Kansas City is playoff-tested having made the postseason three of the past four seasons, including the last two. Andy Reid is a much better coach than Mike Mularkey and the Chiefs were able to rest a number of their key starters this past Sunday. The Chiefs play excellent defense at Arrowhead Stadium - holding foes to fewer than 17 points per game on the season - and their offense is back in gear. The Chiefs finished the regular season winning and covering their last four games while averaging 28 points. The Titans surrendered 27 touchdown passes. Their defense is far less effective on the road. Alex Smith had a career season leading the NFL in passer rating and shedding his image of being a mere game-manager. Smith's greatest strength is not turning the ball over. He has weapons with rookie Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill both establishing themselves as big-play threats. Hunt led the NFL in rushing. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. The Chiefs' braintrust of Reid and sharp offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is far superior to Mularkey, whose conservative strategies caused promising third-year quarterback Marcus Mariota to regress. Mariota was picked off a career-high 15 times. The Titans probably aren't going to have DeMarco Murray. So the Titans are left to counter the Chiefs' high-powered, balanced attack with Mariota, who has played much worse on the road, and Derrick Henry. The Chiefs are likely to load the box since the Titans have failed to establish a downfield passing game, another weakness of Mularkey. Tennessee averaged 15 points in losing its last two road games, falling to the Cardinals and 49ers. Neither of those teams made the playoffs.
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
I see these teams as near even with Notre Dame slightly better. So I'll gladly accept points here. I like Notre Dame's running back depth better and offensive line where they have two projected first-round draft picks. Guard Quenton Nelson is expected to be the first offensive linemen selected in the draft. I also prefer Brandon Wimbush to Danny Etling at quarterback. The statistics of these two teams are very close. Notre Dame, though, has a clear edge in averaging 6.4 yards per run while allowing 4.0 yards compared to LSU averaging 4.9 and 3.9 defensively. The key is who runs the ball better and that's another checkmark for Notre Dame, which rates seventh-best in the nation. Strength of schedule also favors the Irish. This was not a great year in the SEC. LSU had its worst losses against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Tigers also were shocked by Troy. The Irish are the healthier team, too, especially at linebacker. The line is shaded towards LSU because Notre Dame lost late games against Stanford and Miami both on the road. The Irish are refreshed and have regrouped now. They are the team worth backing.
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -122 | 133 h 30 m | Show |
Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory. I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton. Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense. Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time. In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out. Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field. The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game. The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks. |
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12-29-17 | NC State -6.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 28 m | Show |
North Carolina State is a superior team to Arizona State. Now throw in the Sun Devils coaching upheaval and I see North Carolina State winning this game by more than a touchdown. The Wolfpack were in national playoff contention, but couldn't beat Notre Dame and Clemson. No shame in that. The Wolfpack aren't in that elite class. But they are a level higher than Arizona State. North Carolina State has bowl experience winning bowl games in two of the past three seasons. The Wolfpack field one of the most experienced teams in the country with 22 seniors. These seniors have accomplished going to a bowl three straight seasons so they want to end their college careers on a high note. Ryan Finley threw for more than 3,000 yards for North Carolina State this season while completing nearly 64 percent of his passes. He has a deep group of receivers, who can take advantage of Arizona State's 118th pass defense. The Sun Devils ranked 88th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game. North Carolina State's defense is much stronger giving up fewer than 25 points per game and ranking 28th in run defense. The Wolfpack have a stout defensive line and ASU allowed the 10th-most sacks in the country. The kicker here is Arizona State's coaching situation. The Sun Devils fired Todd Graham and hired Herm Edwards, which was a bizarre hire in my opinion. The Sun Devils' offensive coordinator, Billy Napier, and defensive coordinator, Phil Bennett, then left the program. Napier departed to accept the head coaching job at Louisiana-Lafayette and Bennett left for personal reasons. So newcomer Edwards doesn't have either of his coordinators.
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
These are two strong defensive teams. Stanford is holding foes to 21.5 point a game, 25th-best in the country. The oddsmaker, of course, knows this. That's why we have a relatively low total here. So points matter. And I'll gladly accept them with Stanford, who I rate as better than TCU. Stanford has gone to a bowl game nine straight seasons. The Cardinal has won their last three bowl games. I really like them as underdogs in the David Shaw era as they've covered 80 percent of the time in 15 games in that role under Shaw. Stanford beat Washington by eight points and Notre Dame by 18 as an underdog this season while also covering as a 'dog against USC in the Pac-12 championship game. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has failed to step up in big games. His worst games came away from home, too. I prefer Stanford's power ground attack headed by speedster Bryce Love. The Horned Frogs are not used to facing this type of offense. They play an unorthodox 3-3-5 defense. This defense is geared to stop the numerous spread offenses in the Big 12 not the type of offense Stanford employs.
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
Missouri is overrated and Texas' Tom Herman is one of the great underdog coaches. The Tigers haven't beaten a good team all season. All of their SEC victories were against sub .500 teams. Texas has a much better defense than Missouri and I like Herman far more than Tigers coach Barry Odom. If you go back to when he was Ohio State's offensive coordinator and go through when he was the head man at Houston and now at Texas, Herman is an astounding 15-1 ATS (94%) as an underdog. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in run defense. They held five opponents to 14 points or less. Texas' defense will be able to handle Missouri's spread attack having faced multiple spread offenses this season along with great quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Texas went 3-0 ATS against those quarterbacks holding USC to 24 points in regulation, Oklahoma to under 30 points and Oklahoma State to 10 points in regulation, which was 36 points under the Cowboys' season average. The Longhorns have their quarterbacks healthy and are facing an inferior defensive team. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen gets the publicity. That's partly why the Cowboys are favored here. But Allen is a better pro prospect than college player. I find him to be overhyped due in part from a drop in statistics from his junior season plus having a mediocre offensive line and lack of playmakers surrounding him. He's also not 100 percent bothered by a sore shoulder. The Cowboys' leading rusher produced just 474 yards and they had only one receiver with more than 27 receptions. By contrast, Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris is surrounded by skill position weapons. The Chippewas improved as the season went on. They enter this bowl game playing their best ball winning and covering their past five games. Central Michigan averaged 41.2 points in its past five games. The Chippewas beat good MAC teams, too, during this stretch defeating Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan by a combined 26 points. The spot isn't bad either for the Chippewas. They are more excited and motivated to be traveling to a bowl game while this venue is a letdown for Wyoming, which played in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego last season. I consider Central Michigan to be the superior team. So getting points is a nice bonus.
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
It's always rough being the visitor for the Thursday night NFL game. The Saints' journey is made even more difficult by how late it is in the season when the wear-and-tear really takes a toll. The Saints had a very early bye, too, being idle in Week 5. This marks their third straight marquee matchup having traveled to LA to face the Rams two weeks ago and hosting the Panthers this past Sunday, which was a late day start. These two teams are very even with balanced, potent offenses and improved defenses. But getting the Falcons at home on a short week is worth more than a normal home field advantage especially with the Saints being the more banged-up team. Atlanta has been home for the past three weeks so it has a nice situational edge. Both teams are going to play hard. The Falcons have more at stake, though, besides protecting their home field. They need to win to keep the Saints from taking a major step in clinching the NFC South Division. A loss also would drop the Falcons to 7-6 and put them in the thick of trying to qualify for a highly-competitive wild-card spot. Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer. Matt Ryan is the reigning MVP. Brees historically has been less effective on the road. Julio Jones is the best wideout on the field. He'll be especially dangerous if Marshon Lattimore, the Saints prize rookie cornerback, can't play, or is hobbled, by an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the past two games. If you can't contain Jones, you can't beat the Falcons. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are one of the best running back tandems in the league. They are trumped, however, by Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. They've scored 16 of the Saints' NFL-leading 19 rushing touchdowns. There is a catch here, though: The Saints have key injuries besides Lattimore. Ingram has a toe injury. He didn't practice Wednesday and is questionable. Karma is a sprinter not a workhorse. His effectiveness could be compromised without Ingram to do the heavy lifting. There is more. The Saints also could be minus two starting offensive linemen. Left guard Andrus Peat already has been declared out with a groin injury. He had played in every one of New Orleans' snaps on offense. Left tackle Terron Armstread is questionalbe. He missed last Sunday's game with a groin injury, too. So the short week really hits the Saints hard. The injury news is much brigther for the Falcons. Their star cornerback, Desmond Trufant, has been cleared from his concussion symptoms that caused him to miss last Sunday's 14-9 loss to the Vikings. Nickel back Brian Poole also missed that game due to a back injury. He's expected to play, too. Pick'em type games often are the hardest to get involved in. So while this is far from a max unit recommendation, the Falcons have enough going for them with situation, home field on a short week and favorable injury status to get the nod.
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers -14 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -104 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
You have to go all the way back to 1976 to find the last time the Packers were two-touchdown underdogs like they are here. I've been closely following the Packers since the early 1960's. It hasn't all been Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. I've seen a lot of bad Green Bay quarterbacks. Brett Hundley can take his place among them. Hundley has played 19 quarters. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 2-to-10. He's been sacked 17 times and his passer rating is 63.6. The Packers are averaging 13.4 points in the five games Hundley has played since replacing the injured Rodgers. All but one of Hundley's starts have come at home, too. Now the Packers have to play at Heinz Field where they will be lucky to score 10 points against a Pittsburgh defense that is second in sacks with 34. The Steelers defense is solid up front, has linebackers who run and hit and have a strong secondary with physical safeties in the middle. No team has scored more than 17 points on the Steelers during their past five games. Hundley isn't playing with a full deck either. Green Bay is down to third-string running back Jamaal Williams and has a huge hole at offensive right tackle. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have been exposed as mediocre commodities nearly totally dependent on Rodgers setting them up. Davonte Adams has been the Packers' only effective receiving target since Rodgers went down. Unfortunately for the Packers, they also face great obstacles on defense. The Steelers have tremendous weapons and their offense is playing at their highest level coming off a 40-17 victory against Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger has helped Pittsburgh win five in a row by throwing for 1,328 yards, 10 touchdowns and compiling a 102.7 quarterback rating during this span. Antonio Brown is leading the NFL in receptions and yards. Le'Veon Bell is back leading the league in rushing. The Packers have a cluster injury problem in their secondary and may be without linebacker Clay Matthews and underrated nose tackle Kenny Clark. Pittsburgh is on extra rest and sure to be motivated with this being a nationally televised home game. Since Heinz Field opened in 2001, the Steelers are 19-3 in prime time night games when Roethlisberger has been under center. So, yes, this is that time to lay heavy wood in an NFL game.
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
The Patriots are coming together both offensively and defensively. New England hasn't allowed more than 17 points to any of its past five opponents holding those foes to an average of 13.4 points during this span. Tom Brady is having another masterful season. He should pick apart a soft Raiders secondary that still does not have an interception yet. Dion Lewis is coming on, Rob Gronkowski is healthy and speedster Brandin Cooks has to be taken into account, too. The Raiders were torched by Jay Cutler in their last game. So they're very vulnerable to the much superior Brady. Derek Carr still might not be 100 percent. He's not going to be able to keep up with Brady. This game is being played in high altitude in Mexico City. The Patriots just played the Broncos in Denver and are staying in Colorado this week to get fully acclimitated to the higher elevation.
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11-18-17 | New Mexico State v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | Top | 34-47 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money in seven of the past eight meetings. That should be the case again this year as I see no justification for making New Mexico State a road favorite against Louisiana Lafayette. The Aggies were road favorites against Georgia Southern and Texas State. Those two teams are a combined 2-17. The Ragin' Cajuns are a clear cut above those bottom feeders. Each team is 4-5 trying hard to get two more victories to become bowl eligible. Lafayette still has a chance to claim a share of the Sun Belt Conference title and has a much better pedigree than New Mexico State having gone to a bowl game in five of the last six seasons. This also is Lafayette's homecoming game. The Aggies have a poor November history, too, failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times during November. The Ragin' Cajuns are off a bad road loss to Mississippi, but had four players suspended for that game, including their starting running back and leading rusher Trey Ragas. They will have them all back for this matchup. Ragas will be fresh, too. New Mexico State has the better passer in Tyler Rogers. But he's thrown 15 interceptions. That's more than twice as many interceptions as the Ragin' Cajuns quarterbacks have thrown.
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11-12-17 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 13 of the last 15 meetings. The Packers were 7 1/2-point favorites in Week 4 when they rolled past the Bears, 35-14. But now the spread has swung two touchdowns the other way with Aaron Rodgers out. It's too much of an ajustment. The Packers are better than they showed this past Monday night and the Bears aren't good enough to lay this many points. Sure Brent Hundley is going through growing pains filling in for Rodgers. But so is Bears rookie quarterback Mich Trubisky, who will be making only his fifth start. The Packers have far better receiving weapons than the Bears. Trubisky just lost his security blankett, too, with tight end Zach Miller suffering a serious leg injury. Trubisky is a game manager and game managers operating an ultra-conservative offense behind a defensive-minded coach, John Fox, aren't a team to back at this price. The Packers pulled in ranks after releasing distractful Martellus Bennett. Look for the unified, prideful Packers to beat the Bears here.
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
Seattle isn't as good as it has been the past few years. Attrition has taken a toll on the Seahawks' defense. But the Seahawks are still a well above team. Arizona is a bottom feeder with Drew Stanton behind center. If the Seahawks didn't blow Sunday's game to the Redskins, this line would look much higher. Seattle was better than Washington, though, outgaining the Redskins by nearly 200 yards. The Seahawks couldn't overcome a franchise-record 16 penalties and Blair Walsh missing three field goals. Walsh was 12 of 13 in field goals prior to that game. The Seahawks are taking heavy criticism for that bad disappointing performance. They are in bounce back mold and I fully expect that to happen. Russell Wilson is having a huge season. Paul Richardson is having a breakout season joining Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham to provide strong receivers for Wilson. Seattle's offensive line is upgrade with the addition of Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown. Thomas Rawls is healthy giving Seattle its best running back option. Arizona's defense is merely average. During their past four games, the Cardinals have gone against three good passing teams - the Eagles, Rams and Buccaneers. The Cardinals allowed an average of 419 yards through the air against those foes. Arizona has recovered only one fumble on the season and is tied for 25th in takeaways/giveaways at minus 4. The Cardinals' offensive line has started to play better. However, the Cardinals' attack now consists of just ancient Adrian Peterson running and Larry Fitzgerald catching short passes. Stanton is an immobile stiff, who can't hurt a defense with downfield passes. Peterson is 32, a senior citizen by running back age. He just ran a career-high 37 times this past Sunday. Now he's playing on a short week. His legs won't be there. The Seahawks aren't going to have a problem shutting down the Cardinals' scaled-back, limited attack and Arizona's defense isn't strong enough to contain Wilson and his weapons.
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Detroit a road favorite against the Packers at Lambeau Field where the Lions have lost nine of the past 10 times? It's true. That's what happens when Aaron Rodgers is out. Is this justified? The answer is no on many counts. Let's begin with the fact that Detroit is just a mediocre team. Much is being made of Green Bay having lost two in a row. Well the Lions have dropped three straight - home to the Panthers, at the Saints and home to the Steelers. The Lions are 3-4 with two of those victories coming against the Cardinals and Giants during the first two weeks of the season. The Lions can't run the ball - rushing for more than 96 yards just once - and have a below average defense ranking 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in yards given up. The Lions are without their best pass rusher, Kerry Hyder, and top run-defender, Haloti Ngata. Winning a division road game without a good running attack and defense is extremely difficult unless you have a superstar quarterback. Matthew Stafford is above average. He's not elite, though. The situation is against the Lions. The Packers desperately needed a bye to regroup. They've had two weeks to game plan and get healthy. Green Bay's offensive line is expected to be at full strength. Green Bay is 9-2 following a bye under Mike McCarthy. None of those losses came at home. The Packers have owned the Lions through the years winning 16 of the past 20 meetings. It's going to be cold. The Lions have become a warm weather team playing in a dome. All of this, though, is secondary to how Brett Hundley performs. This is the key. I say Hundley comes through here. Hundley was maybe the best quarterback in the league during preseason. OK, that was preseason facing vanilla defenses and backups. But he did display talent both with his arm and running ability. Now many are down on Hundley because of poor performances against the Vikings - when he suddenly was thrust into the game following Rodgers' broken collarbone - and versus the Saints. Those two teams have a combined record of 12-4 and rank third and 10th, respectively, in fewest points allowed per game. Their defenses are far superior to Detroit's defense. The Saints are giving up an average of 13 points during their last three games. This will be Hundley's second start. McCarthy and his ace offensive staff have had 15 days to work with Hundley and game plan for this matchup. Hundley not only will be fully assimilated into the offense, but adjustments will be made that feed into Hundley's strengths such as read-option plays. As added bonuses, Hundley has a healthy offensive line - something he wasn't close to having before - and the emergence of Aaron Jones has given Green Bay a respectable ground game. The Packers have had two of their three best rushing games during their last three games because of Jones, who has run for 413 yards and three touchdowns during this span. The Lions probably will try to take away Jones by putting an extra defender in the box forcing Hundley to beat them. Hundley can do that with one of the deepest receiving groups in the NFL headed by Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. No Hundley isn't close to being Rodgers. But he has a balanced attack behind him, should be coached up with ample prep time and with a healthy offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage against a mediocre defense playing on the road.
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 32 m | Show |
Seattle's defense is down a notch from its elite status of the past few seasons. The Seahawks can't run the ball either unless it's Russell Wilson taking off on a scramble. But the Seahawks still will beat the Redskins by more than a touchdown being at home and given all of Washington's injuries on both sides of the ball. Seattle's defense still is well above average. The Redskins can't compete against it on the road with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, a weak ground attack and two of their three tight ends injured, including Jordan Reed. There's a chance Washington could be minus four starting offensive linemen plus their top reserve lineman. Wilson is playing at the highest level. His receivers are stepping up especially Paul Richardson. Jimmy Graham is healthier and becoming a factor. The Redskins have key defensive injuries. They are without their best run stuffer, Jonathan Allen. They also are down linebacker Mason Foster and maybe their second-best cornerback, Bashaud Breeland. Special teams play has become an issue, too, for the Redskins.
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11-02-17 | Idaho +18 v. Troy | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Earlier this season, Troy became the first Sun Belt Conference team in history to crack The Associated Press Top 25. The Trojans acheived this by stunning LSU, 24-21, as a three-touchdown road 'dog on Sept. 30. The Trojans proceeded to lose their next game, 19-8, to South Alabama as 18-point home favorites. South Alabama is the one common foe Idaho and Troy have. The Vandals defeated South Alabama, 29-23, on the road. There are other reasons why I like the Vandals here in such a heavy underdog role. Situation, motivation, matchup analysis and line value all are handicapping factors. This is a dangerous spot for Troy. The Trojans celebrated their homecoming game with a 38-16 home victory against Georgia Southern this past Saturday. The win was significant because it marked the first time the Trojans have beat the Eagles since 1992. More important, it pushed the Trojans' record to 6-2 making them bowl eligible. It's a quick turnabout now for the Trojans playing on Thursday. You have to wonder how motivated they will be following that important victory? Idaho, though, won't have any problem getting up for this game. It's rare national exposure for the Vandals. They need to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible. It's also the Vandals' last season playing in the FBS. They drop down to FCS next season as part of a cost-cutting decision. Studying the matchup, I find Idaho to be underrated while Troy is perhaps perceived higher than it really should be due to the LSU victory. The Trojans are 6-2, but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS). Troy has a solid defense, but its offense has regressed. The Trojans have been without their best runner, Jordan Chunn, the past two games. Idaho has the quarterback edge with Matt Linehan. He's a pro prospect and on track to become Idaho's all-time leading passer. Linehan has completed nearly 61 percent of his throws with a 14-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's probably the best quarterback Troy has faced all season. Contrast Linehan with Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers, who has just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked 11 times. The Trojans average 25 points, which ranks them 89th. Idaho averages 23.6 points while giving up an average of 30.6 points. The Vandals' overall statistics are skewed by two terrible performances versus UNLV and Missouri. If you discount those games and in fairness throw out Idaho's 28-6 opening-week victory against Sacramento State, the Vandals would be surrendering 25.4 points a game. The oddsmaker is asking Troy to give up a lot of points in a game that has a relatively low total. The Trojans have scored more than 27 points three times this season. If they were to score 30 points they still would have a hard time covering this number considering Linehan's talent level that ensures Idaho of getting its share of points. Idaho often is overlooked. The Vandals quietly have covered 80 percent of their last 16 games going 12-3-1 ATS. Troy, on the other hand, has failed to cover during its past six home games.
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
The linesmaker opened this game Miami minus 3 at home. This basically is saying then that these two teams are even if you factor in about a three-point home field edge for the Dolphins. My checkmarks give the Dolphins far more edges than the Jets. The situational element also favors Miami. The Jets are coming off a huge effort and a near-victory against their arch-rival the Patriots. The Dolphins have quick revenge after being embarrassed by the Jets in Week 3. The Jets thoroughly outplayed the Dolphins in their 20-6 win. The Dolphins were lucky they weren't shut out. But there were extenuating circumstances. Hurricane Irma had caused the Dolphins to not play opening week. The Dolphins then went to the West Coast and beat the Chargers in Week 2. Then they had to fly to the East Coast to play the Jets. Miami's offense still was a work in progress so early in the season with Jay Cutler getting in sync with his new team. The Dolphins' offense isn't good by any means. But they have some stability now with all that back-and-forth traveling, including a trip to London in Week 4, finally ending. The Dolphins showed a lot of heart coming back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to upset the Falcons on the road this past Sunday. Cutler did enough for Miami to win that game and Jay Ajayi had his best game of the season with 130 yards rushing. Ajayi will be the best running back on the field. Jarvis Landry is the best wideout of the two teams. DaVante Parker would be the second-best wideout if he's recovered from an ankle injury. Josh McCown is not better than Cutler. The Dolphins definitely have the better defense ranking third in fewest points allowed per game and 11th in fewest yards given up. The Jets were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns two weeks ago. Cleveland outgained New York by 202 yards and had eight more first downs. The Browns were done in by three turnovers and two missed field goals. This is the spot to recognize the Jets for being who we thought they were - a terrible team.
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
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10-14-17 | New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 53 m | Show |
OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span. The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week. Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests. It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe. |
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10-01-17 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games. The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points. Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has. I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again. |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV -12 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 93 h 18 m | Show |
UNLV received a lot of bad publicity for losing to Howard in its first game. The Rebels were caught looking ahead to a revenge game against Idaho the following week. The Rebels beat Idaho and then were bashed by Ohio State this past Saturday. But now there couldn't be more of a difference as the Rebels go from on the road against the Buckeyes to hosting San Jose State. The Spartans are one of the worst teams in the country. The Rebels are a borderline bowl team. They can't afford a loss here and are aware of the spread after losing to Howard as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels have the offense to pour it on the Spartans, who give up 45.2 points per game and whose defense has been on the field the most of any team in the country by a wide margin. Utah State just beat the Spartans by 51 points this past Saturday. UNLV isn't strong defensively, but San Jose State averages fewer than 17 points a game and has quarterback problems. This is a lay-up game for the Rebels and they won't take their foot off the gas with the recent loss to Howard still fresh.
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 127 h 44 m | Show |
Forget perception. These two teams aren't that far apart. Baltimore hasn't made the playoffs the past two seasons. The Ravens have a below average offense made worse by several key injuries. The Jaguars are better coached now and an ascending team with plenty of defensive talent. There's also another major factor here: This game is at Wembley Stadium in London. Jacksonville is trying to establish London as a second home base. The Jaguars have played the last five years in London, winning the past two times. Baltimore has never played an overseas game. Anyone who has flown overseas can tell you how much a physical toll the time difference makes. There's also a mental focus. The Ravens are riding high at 2-0 and have arch-rival Pittsburgh on deck next week. This is a flat spot for them. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a foul mood after laying an egg at home against the Titans this past Sunday. The Jaguars know they can play well against this opponent having defeated the Ravens on the road in 2015. They nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last season losing 19-17 on a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left. Blake Bortles is more game manager these days with heavy duty rookie Leonard Fournette to keep defenses honest. Joe Flacco isn't 100 percent after missing August recovering from a herniated disc in his back. He's alerady lost his most reliable running back, Danny Woodhead, and top offensive lineman, Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda, to injuries.
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09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -13.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
Before Mike Riley perhaps slinks back off to Oregon State, his Cornhusker should stop-the-pain given their home field advantage and lowly opponent, Rutgers. Nebraska is coming off back-to-back non-league losses to Oregon and a double-digit home upset loss to Northern Illinois. The last time the Cornhuskers lost two in a row non-conference games was 1957. Riley and Nebraska are under extreme pressure to perform better. Fortunately the Cornhuskers draw Big Ten patsy Rutgers. The last time the Scarlet Knights won a Big Ten game was 2015. Rutgers has lost 14 consecutive Big Ten contests. The Cornhuskers have underachieved all season. But they certainly have the talent to bury Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are in a different frame of mind after snapping a nation-long 11-game loss streak with a victory against Morgan State.
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 14 m | Show |
Maybe the Packers will finish as the best team in the NFC, but right now the Packers defense isn't ready for Atlanta. Green Bay's defense showed improvement in Week 1. That was at home, though, against Seattle, which has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Now the Packers go on turf to take on the Falcons playing their first regular-season game in their new $1.5 billion dollar stadium. The last time these two teams got together was in the NFC championship game, also in Atlanta. The final was Atlanta 44, Green Bay 21. The score wasn't even that close. The Falcons bolted to a 31-0 lead and coasted. The Falcons also beat the Packers during the regular season in Atlanta last year. Matt Ryan threw for a combined 680 yards in those two contests versus the Packers, while accounting for eight touchdowns. Ryan has his main weapons back. The Packers' young and inexperienced secondary isn't nearly ready for this kind of early road test. Look for Julio Jones to have a monster game. Defensive guru Dan Quinn has Atlanta's defense on the upswing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be able to keep up with Ryan. The Packers' offensive line isn't as good as it was last season. They are going to have a great degree of difficult playing in this setting especially if star right tackle Bryan Bulaga remains out with an ankle injury.
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
San Diego is in bounce-back mode after putting a league-high 21 players on the injured reserve last season. Philip Rivers is a stud quarterback and the Chargers have the pass rushers with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and a good secondary to keep the Broncos' offense in check. Trevor Siemian can't compare to Rivers. He's coming off a 3-5 record during the past eight games where he had a 10-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Siemian is lucky he doesn't have any real competition in Denver because he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Denver averaged a mediocre 22.2 points in 2015. That average sank to 20.8 last season when the Broncos also finished 27th in total offense. Their offense doesn't look any better this season unless Jamaal Charles can somehow recapture his magic. The Chargers have more firepower with Melvin Gordon, a healthy Keenan Allen and emerging tight end Hunter Henry not to mention the still reliable Antonio Gates. Denver's defense remains top tier, but it did lose T.J. Ward.
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 1090 h 53 m | Show |
The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively. The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard. A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up. |
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09-09-17 | Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
Minnesota is the right side here. The Gophers aren't flashy. But they don't need to be here. They will control the trenches and dominate ball possession with a solid ground game featuring Rodney Smith running behind a strong offensive line. Oregon State has yet to show it can stop the run. The Beavers were pushed around by Colorado State and by Portland State, a FCS school. Oregon State's 58-27 opening week loss to Colorado State looks even worse with the Rams losing to Colorado, 17-3, last week. Oregon State was fortunate to beat Portland State winning, 35-32, as a 26 1/2-point home favorite. Portland State ran for nearly 300 yards against Oregon State. Minnesota's P.J. Fleck is an upper tier coach. He's sharp enough to play the cards he's dealt with - and that's to grind. That formula sets up well for this matchup. The Gophers don't have to do anything fancy here. Oregon State's home field advantage is reduced, too, for this game because school isn't in session yet and there is an air quality warning due to forest fires in the area that could lower attendance.
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 51 m | Show |
There's a double-digit class difference here especially with the Patriots playing at home where they have covered 75 percent of their past 26 games. The Chiefs overachieved to finish 12-4 last season. They ranked 13th in points scored and 20th in yards gained. They also gave up the eighth-most yards. The Chiefs achieved their sterling record by big plays from special teams and a league-best plus 16 turnover ratio. The Patriots aren't going to make mistakes, or get beat on special teams. No team is better coached than New England. New England won the Super Bowl and looks even better on paper this season. Even losing Julian Edelman, Tom Brady still has a wide assortment of weapons, including deep threat Brandin Cooks, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and four verstailte running backs. The Chiefs can't come close to matching that firepower. The Patriots upgraded their secondary, too, signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Alex Smith threw for more than 300 yards just once in 16 games last season. He's done that just four times in his last 65 games. So the Chiefs are not a good backdoor type team. Kansas City had a chaotic off-season, too. There were surprising upper management changes with general manager John Dorsey getting fired. Former stalwarts Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and nose tackle Dontari Poe all moved on. Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston have to prove they are completely healthy.
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 133 h 6 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Colorado State having opened with a victory this past Saturday against Oregon State in impressive style at their new $220 million dollar stadium. The Rams have to travel to Denver for this neutral site game with one less day of normal practice time. That's going to hurt them against the up-tempo Buffaloes especially in high altitude. Colorado buried the Rams, 44-7, last year. While I don't see the score being that lopsided again, Colorado is a clear right side and should win by double-digits. Don't be fooled by the Rams returning nine starters on defense. Their defense still is inexperienced and not good. The Buffaloes have a high powered attack with excellent receiving depth, a stud running back in Phillip Lindsay and an upgrade at quarterback with Sefo Liufau. Colorado State isn't going to be able to trade points with the Bufaloes.
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08-31-17 | Buffalo +24 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
There's some hype here this being P.J. Fleck's first game as head coach of Minnesota. I like Fleck. But his Gophers are far from a powerhouse. They can't cover a number this high against an improved Buffalo squad. Fleck inherits a very young team with only four players on offense and four on defense who have started double-digit games during their careers. Nearly half of Minnesota's players are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The Gophers have a solid ground attack, but are untested at quarterback. Denny Croft and Conor Rhoda both should play under center. They've combined for only 34 career throws and one start. Minnesota ranked 111th in passing offense last year. Buffalo should be much better than its 2-10 mark of last season. Tyree Jackson is a dual threat quarterback, who flashed last season. His new quarterback coach is Jim Zebrowski, who was fired at Minnesota following the 2015 season. So he'll know the Gophers. The Bulls took their lumps defensively last season being extremely young. They return eight defensive starters.
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 162 h 36 m | Show |
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game. |
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 145 h 31 m | Show |
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams. |
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01-01-17 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 57 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
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01-01-17 | Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 26 m | Show |
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
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01-01-17 | Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 138 h 4 m | Show |
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.
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12-31-16 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl pedigree can't be underestimated. Georgia Tech and its veteran coach, Paul Johnson, know all about bowl competition. Georgia Tech has been to a bowl during 19 of the last 20 years. Kentucky hasn't been in a bowl game since 2010. The Wildcats are just relieved to received a bowl bid. The Wildcats' season was made when they upset in-state rival Louisville, 41-38. Note, though, Louisville gained 561 yards on the Wildcats rushing for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. SEC teams such as Kentucky don't face triple option offenses such as Georgia Tech's. I don't see the Wildcats being able to stop the Yellow Jackets. Kentucky surrenders more than 31 points per game. Their rush defense ranks 109th and their total defense is 89th allowing more than 442 yards per game. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards averaging 257.4. The Yellow Jackets have come on after a slow start to go 5-1. I like the experience and dual threat ability of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas. I like Johnson as a coach. Quarterback and coach are two edges Georgia Tech has going. Kentucky lost by three points at home to fellow SEC foe Georgia while Georgia Tech defeated the Bulldogs on the road.
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3 | Top | 38-8 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
Playing in a bowl game, especially a minor one such as this, is no big deal for Oklahoma State. This will be the 11th straight year the Cowboys have gone bowling under Mike Gundy. This game is a big deal for Colorado, though. The Buffaloes suffered during their first five years in the Pac-12 while coach Mike MacIntyre was laying a foundation. Everything came together for the Buffaloes this season as they went 10-3 and captured the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes were dominated by top-four power Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury early in that game and didn't play well. He'll be fine here and the Buffaloes have huge motivation to erase the stigma of that Pac-12 title game loss and capture their first bowl win since 2004. The Buffaloes will be ready for prime time after getting some tough experience with it during the Pac-12 championship game. That loss and national exposure provided needed big-game experience for them. Colorado has covered in 11 of its last 14 games and is 7-2 ATS the past nine times when taking on above .500 opponents. Incentive isn't enough, though, to just go with Colorado. I see the Buffaloes having key matchup edges. The Buffaloes and star running back Phillip Lindsay should pile up yards rushing against the Cowboys, who give up an average of 204.4 yards on the ground per game. Liufau is a good running quarterback, too, and doesn't turn the ball over. Oklahoma State has a balanced offense. Colorado, however, has proven itself against elite running backs holding both Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Utah's Joe Williams to less than 100 yards rushing. The Buffaloes also have the 13th best pass defense giving up just 182.2 yards through the air so Mason Rudolph won't have it easy. Oklahoma State hasn't faced a pass defense this good all season.
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12-28-16 | Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
While I respect Pittsburgh's offense its defense isn't good enough to keep Northwestern from pulling the upset. Northwestern has excellent skill position talent - including running back Justin Jackson - that can take full advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that allows 35.6 points a game, ranks 97th in yards allowed and 127th in pass defense. Jackson has nearly 4,000 career rushing yards. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved immensely as the season progressed finishing with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last eight games. Pittsburgh has excellent skill position players, too, headed by its star running back, James Connor. However, the Panthers are going up against a much stronger defense as the Wildcats hold opponents to just 22.1 points a game. The Panthers also have to deal with the distraction of their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, announcing he was leaving to become offensive coordinator at LSU. Note, too, that the Panthers have failed to cover in their last six non-conference games. The Panthers also haven't defeated a Power 5 team in the postseason since 2010.
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12-27-16 | Washington State -10 v. Minnesota | Top | 12-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State. Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach. Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game. Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game. The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten. |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
These teams just met four weeks ago and the Broncos outgained the Chiefs, 464-273. The Chiefs, though, scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to force in overtime. The Broncos tried a long field goal in overtime that missed and the Chiefs took advantage of the good field position to kick a game-winning field goal with two seconds left. That was in Denver. But the Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Trevor Siemian has thrown for 984 yards and four touchdowns with one interception during his last three games. Alex Smith has thrown a mere 12 touchdowns passes for the season. Siemian is the more dangerous quarterback and Denver has the superior wide receivers. The Broncos still have their Super Bowl caliber defense. The Broncos have surrendered only 10 touchdown passes and lead the AFC with 40 sacks, with Von Miller accounting for 13 1/2 sacks. Denver is No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points given up. The Chiefs yield the fifth-most yards per game. Their defense is minus injured star linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have the record they have because they have scored seven touchdowns via their defense or special teams while not giving up any in those areas. While the Chiefs deserve credit for being opportunistic they also are lucky. It's far from a given that the Chiefs will score a non-offensive touchdown. They aren't good enough to cover this margin without that type of occurrence.
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting. This game is being played in the Bahamas where the temperature will be in the high 70's with the humidity being close to 80. Old Dominion is used to this type of weather having played most of its games in heat. Eastern Michigan last played on Nov. 22. The Eagles have been enduring freezing weather being in an extremely cold region. They didn't fly to Nassau until a few days ago leaving snow and seven degree temperatures. Look for the Eagles to run out of gas playing in humidity they are unaccustomed to in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Old Dominion played at Eastern Michigan last season and won 38-34. The Monarchs average 36 points, which is six points more than Eastern Michigan scores per game. Old Dominion has a balanced offense. The Monarchs have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games, all victories. Defensively, Old Dominion gives up three fewer points per game than Eastern Michigan and nearly 60 fewer yards than the Eagles. Eastern Michigan relies heavily on its quarterback, Brogan Roback. Look for Old Dominion to key on him. |
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12-21-16 | BYU -10 v. Wyoming | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
The combination of BYU being strong on both sides of the ball and Wyoming being overrated - the Cowboys actually lost to UNLV - puts me on the Cougars. BYU travels well and will have strong fan support for this bowl game in San Diego. The Cougars are the more mature team with older students, which helps in bowl situations. BYU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games, while Wyoming has failed to cover seven of its last 10 nonleague games. Wyoming is 1-3 in its last four games losing by three points in overtime to UNLV on the road, splitting with San Diego State and losing at New Mexico by 21.
BYU is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cougars beat Michigan State by 17 on the road, won at Cincinnati by 17 and lost by just one point at Boise State. Both teams have outstanding running backs, Brian Hill for Wyoming and Jamaal Williams for BYU. The key here is defense. Wyoming permits 34.8 pints a game and ranks among the bottom 17 in the nation in yards allowed per game. BYU, on the other hand, holds foes to just 19.4 points per game, which was 15th-best in the country. The Cougars rank 33rd overall in total defense and are in the top-10 in run defense. Wyoming is going to have to pass well to stay with the Cougars. Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to interceptions getting picked off 13 times. I'm fine with BYU going with Tanner Mangum at quarterback instead of Taysom Hill, who was injured at the end of the regular season. Mangum has filled in well before when Hill has gotten injured. As a freshman last season, Mangum completed 60 percent of his throws for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. |
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12-18-16 | Raiders -2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
Not only does Oakland hold matchup edges with San Diego all but decimated with injuries, but the Raiders are on extra time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Chargers may have the weakest home field in the league. Mike McCoy isn't likely to return as coach and the team probably is going to leave San Diego. There could be as many Oakland fans here as San Diego spectators. Philip Rivers has lost his top weapons with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead out. The Chargers are down to fifth-string undrafted rookie running back Kenneth Farrow as their main ball carrier. Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 11 times in his last four games as he presses trying to do much to compensate for his team's numerous deficiencies. Derek Carr had problems with an injured finger in Kansas City's cold weather during Oakland's last game. Now, with extra rest and 10 days to heal, Carr should be back to normal. Oakland's offense can take advantage of a Chargers defense that is down two of their run stuffers and two key cornerbacks. San Diego has just six sacks in its last six games. The Raiders have proven themselves on the road under much harsher conditions going 5-1 SU and ATS. Now the Raiders get to play in their normal time zone against a foe they have dominated recently winning the past three times. The Raiders beat the Chargers, 37-29, at San Diego last season after building up a 37-6 lead. The Raiders are much better this season.
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -4.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Not only does Southern Mississippi play in the stronger conference - Conference USA - but they have a huge quarterback edge on Louisiana-Lafayette, a Sun Belt Conference team. Early bowl steam should be respected and the early money has all been on the Golden Eagles. I agree. It would have been nice to lay less than four points here, but Southern Mississippi is at least a touchdown superior to the Ragin' Cajuns. Southern Mississippi wasn't the same team when star quarterback Nick Mullens had to miss two games last month due to a concussion. But the senior returned in the regular-season finale and led the Golden Eagles to a 39-24 victory as 14 1/2-point 'dogs accounting for four touchdowns. Mullens, not Brett Favre, holds the Southern Mississippi record for touchdown passes and passing yards. Mullens can exploit a vulnerable Lafayette secondary. The Golden Eagles also have a 1,321-yard rusher in Ito Smith. Sparked by this duo, the Golden Eagles average 33.2 points a game and rank 24th in yards. Lafayette's ground-oriented offense can't match that. The Ragin' Cajuns average 10 fewer points per game and 110 yards less per contest. Lafayette's big gun on offense is running back Elijah McGuire, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards three straight seasons and scored 52 career touchdowns. Southern Mississippi's defense, though, has the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the country. The Golden Eagles also feature a top defensive lineman in Dylan Bradley. He should be highly effective operating against Lafayette's underclass interior linemen.
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12-11-16 | Redskins +1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 111 h 50 m | Show |
Washington is clearly the superior team. The Redskins showed that in the team's first meeting back in Week 6 when they outgained the Eagles, 493-239. Washington won 27-20 and the score should not have been that close but the Eagles got two non-offensive touchdowns. Since then the Eagles have gotten worse. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. Philadelphia has allowed 26 or more points in five of its last six games. The Eagles have a terrible secondary and a pass rush that has only managed six sacks in the last six games. Washington has a much better secondary and an explosive offense - which ranks No. 2 in yardage and passing yards - that can take advantage of Philadelphia's many defensive shortcoming. It's a plus if star tight end Jordan Reed plays, but the Redskins have many other receiving weapons, including DeSean Jackson, underrated Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis. The Redskins have won and covered the past four in the series.
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 44 h 58 m | Show |
Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +7 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington -7.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game. |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 103 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. |
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11-27-16 | Titans -3 v. Bears | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 136 h 40 m | Show |
The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot. |
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11-26-16 | Oregon -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. |
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11-25-16 | Boise State v. Air Force +9 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago. |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2.5 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. |
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11-20-16 | Patriots -11 v. 49ers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 22 m | Show |
I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. |
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11-18-16 | UNLV +28.5 v. Boise State | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 58 h 9 m | Show |
Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez. |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. |
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11-10-16 | Browns +10 v. Ravens | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games. |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. |
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11-06-16 | Titans +5 v. Chargers | Top | 35-43 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. |
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11-05-16 | Alabama v. LSU +8.5 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. |
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10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -102 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -5.5 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 147 h 36 m | Show |
It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. |
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10-29-16 | Michigan v. Michigan State +24.5 | Top | 32-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 19 m | Show |
This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row. |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. |