ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #431 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8 ET - Despite 27 points scored in the 2nd half of last week's game (a good sign for expecting plenty of points the following week), the Broncos game last week fell one point short of going over the total. Yes, the Hall of Fame Game this season also included Denver and also resulted in an under. But I can not ignore the fact that the Broncos O/U went a perfect 4-0 in preseason action in 2018. After back to back unders to open the preseason, the over trending resumes for the Broncos here. The 49ers had an easy over when they got drilled by Denver in 2017 in preseason action. That is one of 3 overs (against just 1 under) that San Francisco has in their last 4 meetings with AFC West opponents in preseason action. Both teams want to see some bigger offensive production in this one after some struggles thus far in preseason action. They each have the QB rotations to get the job done too and, again, I like the big scoring we saw in the 2nd half of the Broncos/Seahawks to carry over to this game which is also Denver's first home game of this preseason. As for the Niners, they did score 10 points in the 4th quarter of last week's game and I expect the back-ups (always a key in preseason) to again lead to plenty of points in this match-up. Look for the over in Broncos to improve to 3-0 in preseason action when they enter a game off an ATS loss. 10* OVER the total in Denver 

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #427 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers New Orleans Saints @ 4 ET - The Chargers had their run game going last week which means they'll work more on their passing game this week. The fact is their offensive attack was quite balanced in last week's loss at Arizona. The problem was that LA had two key turnovers that took points off the board. Los Angeles scored only 13 points because they fumbled at the Cardinals 2 to end a long drive and they also threw a pick at the Cards 20 to end another drive. Chargers will put more points on the board Sunday as they face a Saints team that lost 34-25 last week. Also, last preseason the over was 2-0 in New Orleans road games as the Saints scored an average of 30 points per game. Last week's 24 point effort means NO has scored 24 or more points in 4 of their last 5 preseason games. The over went 3-1 in Chargers preseason games last year. Also, LA has allowed an average of 28 points per game in their past 4 preseason home games. This total opened up in the mid-40s and has dropped to the low-40s as of early game day morning. Take advantage of the O/U move as the Saints are 7-1-1 to the over when playing with 8 days of rest between preseason games. The over is 16-9 in preseason games for LA when they are off a game in which they scored 14 points or less. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #417 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns @ 4 ET - The Browns put up 30 points last week and had over 400 passing yards. The Colts only scored 16 points last week but I like the fact they scored 13 in the fourth quarter and that they are at home for their Week 2 match-up. This total may look a little high since it opened at 43 but these numbers are not pulled out of thin air so think about that for a moment. The number was set this way because of these QB rotations and the way they are expected to play this one in terms of play-calling, etc. In other words, don't let the big number keep you away. The fact is that the Browns are fully capable of another big day offensively but the Colts will score much better on their home field. Cleveland scored an average of 27.5 points per game in their two road games in pre-season last year. Indianapolis scored an average of 22 points per game in their 4 preseason games last year. The Colts will make some adjustments and throw more after struggling in the first half of last week's game. Of course both teams have some extra rest here since this is a Saturday game and they played on Thursday last week. The over is a long-term 16-9 in pre-season action when the Colts are playing after a week in which they played a Thursday game. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #407 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers @ 7:30 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 40 down to a 36.5 as of early morning on game day. I like the added value here based on what I am hearing about QB rotations, etc. Yes the Ravens shut out the Jaguars last week but have you looked at the Jacksonville QB rotation behind Nick Foles? Yikes! In any event, the Packers are going to put up much more of a challenge to the Ravens defense. Green Bay scored 28 points last week and the Ravens scored 29 points last week. All those pounding the under here are not giving enough consideration to the point production these two teams had last week. Also, the fact that the Packers have a young head coach (LaFleur) and the Ravens have a coach (Harbaugh) known for his desire to win preseason games, that means you have a situation where both teams are likely to push a little harder for a win. The point being that whichever team is down late is going to be throwing plenty, possibly running no-huddle sets, etc. The over is 14-9 the last 23 times the Ravens have been a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Green Bay is 4-2 to the over the last 6 times they have played a non-conference opponent in preseason action. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #273 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:30 ET - The Steelers were 3-1 to the over in the preseason last year and they scored an average of 30 points per game! The Buccaneers have a new head coach in Bruce Arians. In Thursday's games, teams that had a new head coach that was coaching their first game of preseason (so excluding Denver as they played in HOF Game last week) went 4-1 to the over! Arians last was a head coach in 2017 with the Cardinals. In that preseason the Cards played in the HOF Game so they had a total of 5 games. Of course that final game (Week 4 of preseason) every year is truly a crap-shoot but, in the first 4 games of that NFLX season, Arians' Cardinals averaged 21 points per game. Tampa Bay, of course, had a different head coach last season, it is worth noting they were a perfect 4-0 to the over last season. The Bucs, not including the particularly meaningless Week 4 game, scored an average of 29 points per game in the first 3 preseason games. Considering the QB rotations for this game, the nice weather in Pittsburgh this evening, and the aforementioned high-scoring trending...this one has the makings of a game that should get well past 40 in total points. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #267 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans @ 4 ET - This one opened up as one of the biggest totals on the board for this week's preseason action. Now, as of about 5 hours before kickoff, the total is holding in the range of the 44 that it dropped to. The markets have moved this one down and appear to be fading the under. I am certainly not going to "play games" here and try to time when all the scoring ends for each of these teams. Both have been involved in high-scoring games in each of their two preseason games thus far. As a result, many are just playing the "fade" theory here and feeling that now an under must result after a 2-0 over mark for each thus far. There is no reason to believe that to be the case. Both teams have shown the "style" with which they're going to play this preseason and the result has been plenty of points. Next week it certainly could change as Week 4 of the NFL preseason is always a "unique animal" but in Week 3 things are very likely to stay the same as this is "dress rehearsal" week so teams are fine-tuning everything they've been developing through the preseason thus far. With that said, I see every reason to again expect plenty of points to be scored in this one based on QB rotations, overall player rotations, and the mindset of each coaching staff coming into this one. Another shootout ensues. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #255 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Redskins vs Denver Broncos @ 7:30 ET - Oftentimes it is hot and humid in DC at this time of year but a cool front just moved through and it is going to be very pleasant weather this evening in DC. That certainly won't hurt our chances of a high-scoring match-up here as energy levels should remain high throughout. Broncos games are 2-0 to the over this preseason and both of those games were at home. Now Denver is on the road where the over is a perfect 3-0 in their last 3 preseason games. The Broncos have scored an average of 24 points per game in their last 4 preseason games on the road. However, Denver has also allowed an average of 23 points per game in their last 3 preseason games away from home. The Redskins, after seeing their first game go over the total, did stay under the total in Week 2 of the preseason. However, Washington moved the ball well but scored only 15 points because they settled for 5 field goals. Flip that to a more "normal" 3 TDs and 2 FGs for their five scores and you've got 27 points on the board instead of 15. The Redskins already lost RB Derrius Guice to injury so don't be surprised if they stay away from a lot of "pounding the ground" against Denver's defense. Last week only 4 of the Skins 20 first downs came on the ground. They'll continue to emphasize the passing attack here which is always good when you're on an over. As for the Broncos, their first two games have seen the totals average 58.5 points. I am very comfortable that we get this one to at least the upper 40s in points! 10* OVER the total in Washington

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #419 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Oakland Raiders @ 4 ET - Earlier in the week this total was as high as a 42.5 and now, as of game day morning, there are shops with this one as low as a 38. First off, we have value here but, secondly, there is a situational aspect to this game that I believe the markets are not measuring properly at all. That is the fact that these teams open up the regular season in Week 1 on Monday September 10th. Of course that means the teams are wanting to be extremely vanilla in this match-up. This is part of what is driving the markets to move this total lower and lower. However, the reality is that the fact that the defenses are each going to be extremely vanilla here is what should really be factored into it. If you're not showing special coverage packages in your secondary or you're not putting together different stunts or looks or blitz packages, a defense is pretty easy to beat just with regular play-calling on offense. That is the key point here and that is the reasoning behind why I expect this game, perhaps more than any other one this preseason, to play out like a complete dress rehearsal. As a result, I expect the end product to be more than enough offense to get over the low total posted on this game. With both teams off of Week 1 games where their offenses did not put up many points, there has been an over-reaction from the markets. This game is highly likely to play out much differently than many expect as the key is going to be very vanilla defensive schemes. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams

Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NFL Game #279 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings @ 9 ET - When most people think of the Vikings and Broncos the first thing that comes to mind is defense. That said, regular season and pre-season handicapping are two entirely different animals and the focus for both teams in this match-up is going to production on offense. The interesting dynamic too is that the Vikings and Broncos each have quarterbacks previously with the opponent they're facing today. Certainly don't expect to see much of Case Keenum here but Trevor Siemian and Kyle Sloter will play a lot here against their former team. Meanwhile, behind Keenum it will be Paxton Lynch playing hard for the #2 spot in a battle with Chad Kelly. I feel the extra dynamics of Siemian and Sloter against former organization and a good battle at the back-up QB spot for the Broncos should lead to a rather entertaining affair here. The total has risen from its opener and with two teams that most consider "defensive teams" and yet a total on the rise in a preseason game you know that it is likely sharp money that is involved in the move. Add my sharp money to the pile as well and look for this one to fly over the total. Perfect weather for this one too. 8* OVER the total in Denver

PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #259 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7 ET - Classic case of long-term data giving us short-term value. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is known for trending under in preseason games. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson also has trended under in his two seasons as a head coach with Philadelphia. As a result of this, the total on this game has moved from a 35 to a 33 and is currently the lowest total on the board for Thursday's games. This has created great value here because the Steelers 4 preseason games last year actually averaged 32 points per game and NONE of them totaled less than 30 points. Indeed Pittsburgh stayed under in all 4 preseason games last year but, as you can see per the above, it wasn't by much! As for the Eagles, 3 of their 4 preseason games last year stayed under but only 1 game totaled less than 33 points! In fact, their two home games averaged a total of 52.5 points scored per game! The market movement here has led to great value on this one there is often more than meets the eye when looking at trending on totals. The key point here being that a closer look shows 33 will likely prove to be too low. The Eagles 4 preseason games last year had an average posted total of 39 points! The Steelers 4 preseason games last year had an average posted total of 38.5 points! No weather issues in Philly this evening either. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia

NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach Saturday NFLX 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Giants vs New York Jets @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play as most people are looking at the under in this match-up. After all, neither one of these teams have shown a whole lot so far this season. However, they call it exhibition season for a reason and the fact is that when the Jets and Giants meet in their home stadium in New York they've been apt to put on an 'exhibit' or a bit of a 'show' for the fans. In fact, the last 4 seasons this preseason match-up between these city rivals has average a total of 47.8 points per game! None of the 4 games have totaled less than 41 points. With that said, I like the value here being offered with this extremely low total. Trust me, I understand with the point totals these teams have had in their games in this preseason thus far it may seem "risky" but year in and year out this game in New York ends up being quite entertaining for the fans. I expect another "barnburner" in this one and once again, it gets to at least 41 points! The weather will be perfect with clear skies, light winds, and pleasant temperatures for this one in East Rutherford Saturday. 10* OVER the total in New York Giants