Its been 7 straight wins for the Blue Jays and Im going to ride their momentum here today and pay the extra juice. Sunday home chalk taking on a visitor  who missed the playoffs the previous season are 64-29   with a 12% ROI this season for a 69% conversion rate . Add to that  Toronto is  20-9 with a 16% ROI as a home chalk and you have a viable looking wager here .  

Play on the Blue Jays 

 LAD starter Ohtani In 13 career starts against Houston, owns a. sub par  3-6 record  with a slightly bloated  4.01 ERA, the worst of any team he has started against at least three times. Here against Astros bats that  are in top  gear  even without  Yordan Alvarez Im betting on another sub standard start . Houston ranks fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, averaging  .277 average and   .175 Isolated Power and get the edge here as road dogs for the 2nd straight night. Houston in road games on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 39-15 dating back to the 2023 season.The Astros will answer with left-hander Framber Valdez (9-4, 2.72 ERA). Valdez garnered his second consecutive scoreless outing when he went six innings at home against the Chicago Cubs in a 2-0 win on Sunday.The Astros have gained  a victory in each of Valdez's last 10 starts.  Valdez has gone 8-0 in the stretch with a 1.72 ERA during that stretch and give the Astros an edge. 

Play on the Astros to win 

Brewers starter Priester recorded  a 1.98 ERA in five June starts, with his team going  a perfect 5-0 in those tilts. Meanwhile, Alcantara despite of being talented has not looked viable this season  recording a 3-4 record along  with a 5.03 ERA at home.SANDY ALCANTARA on the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 is 0-7 since 2023. ( Team record) I know the Marlins have been hot but this is a bad spot for them. The Brewers are 27-18 as a favorite this season ranking , 3rd   MLB.

Play on the Brewers to win

The Thursday pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers: Miami's Eury Perez (0-2, 6.19 ERA) against Minnesota's David Festa (2-2, 5.40). Marlins starter Perez is finally looking healthy and increasing his pitch count after being off last season. Right now  Perez appears healthy, throwing his fastball over 100 mph on various occasions. 

Miami on the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) are 8-1 this season.

Minnesota on the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season has lost 16 of 24 games, Minnesota in away games on the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 4-16 dating back to last season.Minnesota in away games on the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite are 1-7 this season.

Play on the Marlins to win 

The Diamondbacks go for three straight wins against their National League West rival this Wednesday evening in Phoenix and Im betting they get it. Dbacks starter Kelly (7-4, 3.49) posted a 2.79 ERA over five starts in June matches up well here vs Giants Roupp who has made two relief appearances in his career against the Diamondbacks, recording a bloated  a 4.76 ERA without a decision.

MLB Home chalk like Arizona  coming off a tilt  in where they hit 4 or more home runs 331-167 L/5 seasons for a  67% conversion rate for ,more than 43  units of profit. 

San Francisco in away games on the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games is 2-11 L/13 overall .San Francisco in road games on the run line vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse are 6-26 since 2023.

Play on Arizona 

Dbacks righty starter Gallen goes against another righty, Hayden Birdsong (3-2, 4.13), who is winless in his past four starts. . He has struggled  in his past three trips to the hill , where he has allowed 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of sub par work. I know Gallen has not looked like a top tier hurler this season, but he is still a strong pitcher who can easily take on a up and down SF batting order. 

San Francisco in road games on the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 2-10 this season.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 33-9 since 1997 with a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Arizona to win

KCs starter Lorenzen recorded a 6.31 ERA in five June starts and is  2-5 with a 5.68 ERA on the road this season. He is fade material here vs a Seattle side, that sits as  -130 plus favs. Note: Home chalk -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made thepost season in  the previous campaign are 50-27  with a 12% ROI this season. 

Play on the KC Royals to win

Scherzer (0-0, 5.63 ERA) is scheduled to start the opener of a four-game series vs the Yankees. The 40-year-old right-hander no longer looks like the all star pitcher he was during most of his career and is fade material here in this spot play. Scherzer is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 12 career starts against the Yankees. Meanwhile, his is opposed by Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.92) who is off 6 scoreless inning outing last time out against the Reds and has momentum entering this tilt.

Im betting the Yanks bats, take advantage of Jays  bullpen  that is overworked . In the past two games starter Chris Bassitt went two-plus innings in his start on Saturday and Eric Lauer went 4 1/3 innings in his Sunday start.

NY Yankees in road games on the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are. perfect 6-0 L/6 overall.

Play on the Yankees to win

Detroits starter Gipson-Long owns a  3.00 ERA at home  this season and matches up well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Meanwhile,  Twins starter Festa is in a funk as is evident by garnering a nasty 10.00 ERA in four June starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 18 innings of sub par work. The right has also recorded a  12.27 ERA on the road this season and is fade material in his current form. Detroit has cashed  23 of 32 games this season as home chalk with a 13% ROI anda re 34-16  with a 16% ROI against sides who missed the post season the previous year.  Detroit on the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game are 14-2 L/16 opportunities.

Play on Motown to win

San Diego starter Dylan Cease goes to the hill  in Cincinnati this evening to face the Reds.   Cease has only allowed 3 runs or more  in 2 out of 16 starts, during this campaign. His strikeout data has been off the charts and despite of a limited array of stuff seems to be in a big time groove. Meanwhile, Nick Martinez the Reds starter is better out of the bullpen than a starter according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. He is 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA in three career starts against the Padres and is fade material here this evening according to my projections.Cincinnati saw its three-game winning streak come to a halt with a 7-1 setback to the New York Yankees on Wednesday and Im betting with that negative regression continuing-in game 1 of this series. 

Play on the San Diego Padres

  Lefty hurler  Dietrich Enns will make his first MLB start since 2021 on Thursday for the Tigers. Its been  3 years since he went to Japan and South Korea leagues. The soutpaw has been in top form in AAA this season as is evident by garnering s strong 2.89 ERA over 62 innings spanning 14 starts. Im betting he holds down the ship today and helps his Mortown crew to a win. Detroit has won 9 of 14 vs AL west opp this season.

Play on the Tigers 

Bosox send righty  starter  Fitts (0-3, 4.71 ERA) to the hill vs the Halos this afternoon. He took the loss when Los Angeles beat host Boston 7-6 on June 2 and Im once again betting he has negative results here today. He recently before being recalled last weekend - gave up seven earned runs on 15 hits in 12 innings for Worcester.  RICHARD FITTS on the money line in all games is 0-9 dating back to last season. ( Team record)

Meanwhile, southpaw Yusei Kikuchi (2-6, 3.01) is Los Angeles' probable starter Wednesdayand according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well here vs this version the Red Sox.

The Red Sox have lost 4 straight and are fade material in their current form. Angels have won 3 of their L/4 overall.

The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+13.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Play on the Angels to win 

 The Atlanta Braves  will send  Spencer Schwellenbach (5-4, 3.26 ERA) and the Mets will reply with Paul Blackburn (0-1, 6.92 ERA) both right handers.The Braves pitching staff owns a  3.13 ERA over their L/10 games while the Mets pitching staff a garnered a bloated  5.95 ERA during the same span. Atlanta is 6-2 in Schwellenbach’s last eight starts and deserves respect here in the favorites role. 

Both teams are currently playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with the Braves winning 7 of their L/10 while the Mets have lost 8 of their L/10 overall. 

Road chalk like the Braves off a loss and made the post season the previous season are 68-39 for a 64% conversion rate.

The Braves are a perfect  3-0 vs t the Mets this season and get the nod again. 

NY Mets after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival which was the case last time out, have seen an average rpg diff of -4.

Play on the Atlanta Braves

The NY Mets send lefty David Peterson (5-2, 2.60 ERA) to the hill and the  Phillies respond with another left hander  Jesus Luzardo (6-3, 4.41 ERA). My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest Luzardo has the edge based on a algorithmic trend chart that use . Note" The Phillies are batting .261 versus  southpaw pitching ranking  6th in MLB. The Mets rank   (15th) vs left handers along with a sub standard .238 BA.

Sunday Night Baseball home chalk like Philadelphia  are good bets going  176-99 for a 64% conversion rate dating back 15 seasons. 

 Home favorites like the Phillies who made the post season the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 78-40   with an 11% ROI  for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.   

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - allowing 4 or less runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 42-18 sine 2021 for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies

The Reds are the only team in MLB that hasn't been swept this season. Yesterday they blew a big lead to the Cards and lost 6-5. But today Im betting they keep on top of things with a strong pitcher Abbott on the hill for them today. The Reds right hander  (6-1, 1.84 ERA)  this season, and after using 8 relievers yesterday is the perfect starter for them in the finale.ANDREW ABBOTT on the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 is a perfect 7-0 when he starts this season.

Cincinnati on the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save are 7-1 L/8. Cincinnati on the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent are 14-3 L/17.

Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas (4-4, 4.35) is expected to get the start for the Cardinals he is  is 6-8 with a 5.53 ERA in his career against Cincinnati (22 appearances, including 20 starts), He should be left out even if he gets beaten around as the Cards have a tired bullpen and will be looking ahead to massive 4 game series with the Cubs this week.

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.15 Units / 43% ROI)

Play on the Reds to win

The Braves just swept the Mets and enter this game with lots of momentum after a slow start their campaign. Atlanta has won 7 of their L/10 overall and deserve respect in this current form vs a Miami side that is just 5-5 L/10  Braves start right-hander Didier Fuentes is a viable pitcher despite this being his MLB debut and is part of a pitching staff that has garnered a solid 2.83 ERA over their L/10 tilts overall. 

Miami on the money line after 4 or more consecutive home games are 2-14 L/16 overall.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 - excellent fielding team - averaging or less 0.5 errors/game on the season against opponent terrible defensive catchers - allowing 1 or more SB's/game on the season are 100-37 since 1997 for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves

The Mets send out  righty Clay Holmes (7-3, 2.87 ERA) and the Braves will reply  with  RH Spencer Strider (1-5, 4.35 ERA).. I know Striders numbers are tilted toward the Mets starter but my power rankings suggest Strife4r marches up well vs the Mets.The Braves are  10-1  in the L/ 11 Home Divisional starts by Spencer Strider.

 Home chalk  that  made the post season in  the previous campaign playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 74-37 with a 12% ROI with a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Also home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opp that made the playoffs are 45-23 with a 14% ROI for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Braves 

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Stephen Kolek owns a  3.50 ERA while allowing  one home run per nine innings . My power rankings are expecting even more positive regression from him even here against an explosive Dodgers lineup. He has garnered a 1.75 ERA in 36 innings of work on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers send starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan to the hill. He is making his first MLB start since 2023 , and has never shown alot of consistency when he did pitch garnering a 4.92 ERA. Im betting the Padres do enough damage here to get the win on the moneyline. Im depending on Kolek to stay hot. 

The Milwaukee  Brewers will send  Chad Patrick (3-6, 3.25 ERA) and the Cubs return fire with  Ben Brown (3-5, 5.71 ERA). My own pitcher vs power rnaking suggest positive and negative regressionary scenarios for each pitcher giving the home side the edge.  

The Cubs are 35-14  returning a massive 15% ROI as a chalk this season, ranking No,.1 as favorites in  MLB.

Both teams are coming off wins and when this happens  the home favorites are 37-17  with a 12% ROI and when both sides   are coming off a day off, chalk is a impressive 72-39  for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

The last time these teams met the the Brewers won- Chicago Cubs on the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite are a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities.

MLB Home teams - team with a good SLG (.430 or better) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are 49-16 since 2021.

Padres starter Dylan Cease (2-5, 4.28 ERA) go to the hill against the explosive   Dodgers  offense who. will  start Shohei Ohtani, who will be  making his 2025 debut. Its been wince 2023 since Ohtani pitched. That season with the  Angels, he garnered a  10-5 record along  with a 3.14 ERA.

Note: Cease is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA on the road this season aand is fade mg3rail once again according to my power rankings. 

LA Dodgers games vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities are 8-1 this season.

MLB Home favorites like the Dodgers  who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the post season the previous camoaign are 69-37 for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Both these teams are coming off a victory and when that happens the home chalk  is 35-16 with a 12% ROI for a 69% conversion rate for money-line bettors. .

Astros starter Hunter Brown has recorded a 1.82 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings so far this season and has allowed one or less runs in nine of his last 11 trips to the hill. Meanwhile J Ryan is also a vialbe pitcher but not in the same top form as Houstons hurler Brown. Add to that Minnesota bullpen has looked atrocious during the last week garnering a 9.64 ERA. 

Minnesota has lost 6 of their L/8 and the Astros are heating up having won 3 in a row.

MLB Home teams - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 51-28 since 1997.

Play on the Astros

Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek (3-1, 3.00 ERA) will face Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson (2-2, 4.60) in the series opener Friday. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Dbacks have the edge even though Kolek has been in top form dating back to May 27th start. Note: The Diamondbacks are hitting .260 against right handing pitching like Kolek ranking 3rd in MLB. 

Home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 41-22  with a 13% ROI for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) -NL, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games are 56-16 since 2021.

Play on the Arizona Dbzcks to win

NYY send right hander  Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) to the hill tonight and the Royals send out  righty Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA).  note: SETH LUGO vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game is 0-6 L/6 (team record) with the average rpg diff clicking in at -3.5.

The pitching matchup is fairly even, but the offense the Yanks is far superior to that of their opponents. The Yanks are  hitting .273 on the road which ranks first in the all of MLB .The Yankees are 39-20  in the chalk role this season for a 66% conversion rate for their betting backers and are  32-14  as a favorite against non-division opponents for. a70% conversion rate. The Yanks won the first two games of this series a favs and get the nod again here in the third meeting. MLB Road teams - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA. 3.50 or less ) (AL), with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games are 53-26 since 1997.

Bubic is a reliable hurler for the Royals but the Yanks smash left handers regularly as is evident by a   hitting .271 vs LHP this season. The Yankees  have the edge here tonight and are 38-20  as a favorite this season for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. NYY is also 31-14   as a favorite against non-division opponents with a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NYY to win

NY Mets starter GRIFFIN CANNING on the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing are a perfect 6-0 L/6 team record. Lets ride his momentum .

MLB Home chalk like the NYM coming off a game in where they hit four or more home runs are viable investment options dating back  5 plus campaigns, going 325-164 for a 67% conversion rate. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) -NL, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games are 55-16 since 2021.

Play on the Mets to win

Philadelphia are in a funk as is evident by a 1-9 L/10 record  while  hitting .189 with a 6.01 ERA .I know the Phillies starter  Zack Wheeler has been a top tier hurler so far this season, but  his last trip to the hill  on May 29,  saw him give up six runs to the Atlanta Braves and after taking parental leave could find himself a little rusty .With that said, Im betting on a Chicago team that lost yesterday by via a 4-0 shutout to to the tigers  bounce back with positive regression. It must be noted that the Cubs are 18-4   following a loss this season for a 48% Return on Investment . 

Play on Cubs 

The Cubs will start  Horton today vs the Tigers . Chicago is 5-0 in his L/5 starts  this season. The righty hurler has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all five starts, and has recorded a solid  3.07 ERA on the road to this point in the campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers will start  righty Jack Flaherty (4-6, 3.72 ERA) who my power rankings suggest the Cubs matchup well against. Note: Rod pups of plus money 120 or less off a victory like the Cubs have been good bets this recently  going  30-23  along with a 17% ROI  since the first of May. Also the cubs are 9-2 vs a  team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL).

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win

The White Sox  took last nights series opener  7-2 as money-line dogs and once again offer value against a team that they matchup well against. Todays pitching match up features right hander is Royals  Michael Wacha (3-4, 2.88 ERA) and the White Sox starter Adrian Houser (1-1, 1.47 ERA). Both hurlers are equal in my power rankings , and the value runs with the home side who have momentum entering this game against a side that does not do well in the favorites role s as chalk of -125 to -175 recording just one win in 7 opportunities this season. Note: White Sox when an underdog of +100 to +150 at home have won 11 of 19 games.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win

Following the largest ninth-inning comeback victory in team history, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a let down spot and vulnerable to coming out flat here tonight. 

Dbakcs send left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill , he is coming off the 15-day injured list to start the game and also vulnerable . 

MLB team like Arizona - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 over his last 5 starts are 9-31 since 2021.

Play on the Reds to win

Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin (4-2, 4.46 ERA) threw seven scoreless innings his last time out against the Chicago White Sox and has momentum entering this game vs the Seattle Mariners. I know B Woo has been solid for Seattle this season, but early season power rankings suggest he does not matchup well vs this version of the Orioles offense. 

MLB favorites like Seattle with a money line of -125 to -175 - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a bad team (38 to 46%) are 14-28 since 2021. MLB Road underdogs like Baltimore with a money line of +125 to +175 - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 49-33 since 2021. MLB Teams like Baltimore  on winning runs of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 155-119   since the start of the 2021 season. MLB teams  like the Orioles on winning streaks of five games or more and are under 5.00 on the season are 66-53   in their last 119 opportunities  to extend streaks.

Play on Baltimore to win

Padres starter Pivetta has been extremely efficient  since joining the Padres, recording a stingy  2.74 ERA with a 3.52 xERA and a 2.96 FIP in his 62.1 innings of  top tier work spanning 11 starts.He has thrived at Petco Park a pitcher haven, and should fare well in this pitcher friendly venue in SF.  

Meanwhile, Harrison the Giants starter is replacing  the place of Jordan Hicks. He has , has a 2.51 ERA, in a short sample size data entry  record , but what is concerning is that  opposing batters have a 61.8% Hard Hit%  rate against him and that ERA is probably a mirage.

The Padres top arms in the bullpen are more rested than the Giants, and it must be noted that 

San Diego on the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more are 8-1 this season.

San Diego on the money line vs. a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) are 19-4 this season.

San Diego on the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better are a perfect 6-0 this season.

Play on the Padres

Yusei Kikuchi is 1-6 ( vs.the  BoSox in his career. YUSEI KIKUCHI on the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) is 1-8 L/9 opportunities (Team record).

MLB Road teams like the Angles when the money line is +125 to -125 - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games against opponent after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games are 28-60 since 2021.

Bosox starter BRAYAN BELLO on the money line against AL West opponents is 8-0 vs / (Team wins)

Play on the Boston. Red Sox to win

 Royals stater Bubic recorded  a 0.56 ERA in five May starts,  while giving up  only 2 earned runs in 32.1 innings of top tier pitching. The Royals are 4-1 in his last five starts and have the edge again today vs  a Tigers team batting .203 in their L/10 games.  Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous campaign that also receive line movement in their favor are 127-55 . Kansas City Royals have hit the Money-line in 23 of their last 37 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)

Play on the KC Royals to win 

We are laying some significant lumber here today, but the league wide trends suggest the extra juice is worth the outlay. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better like Patrick on the season (NL), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 3-37 since 1997,

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 - like the Phillies average hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL) are 55-8 since 1997.

Play on the Phillies to win 

Seattle got smashed yesterday 9-0 and Im betting on them   bouncing back tonight. note:  Mariners have been a solid team to back in bounce back situations winning 14 of 23 opportunities for a  61%  conversion rate along. with a 16% ROI which ranks top 5 in all of MLB. 

Washingtons starter Gore owns a  4.26 ERA in away games this season almost a full 2 runs above his home ERA. Meanwhile, . Seattles starter  Hancock’ has seen the Mariners go  6-1 on the money-line in  last seven starts. and is backed by a  bullpen, with an  ERA of 3.48 compared to 6.11 for the Nationals which is near the bottom of MLB.  

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win 

Detroit has won three in a row and  The Tigers'  pitching staff has given up just two runs total during the streak and Im betting they keep things rolling tonight with Jobe who is 4-1  on the hill. 

San Francisco on the money line against AL Central opponents have lost 7 of their L/8.t San Francisco in road games on the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span are 4-19 since 2023.San Francisco on the money line after scoring and allowing 4 runs or less last 3 games are 1-10 since last season.

Detroit on the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game is 13-2 since 2025. Detrpoit as a home favorite of -110 or higher are 15-6 this season.Detroit is 5-0 (+5.8 Units) against the money line hosting San Francisco since the 2023 season.

Play on the Tigers to win 

 Both Philadelphia and Atlanta  are coming off a day off. It must be noted that the  favorite is 52-28  on the money-line this season in this situation . Home chalk in the opening game of a new series are 104-56 on the money line this season so far. 

Atlanta in away games on the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control like Suarez (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 0-7 this season and in away games on the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game are 0-8 this season. Meanwhile,Philadelphia on the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) are 22-3 since last season.

With the  Phillies currently hitting .271 at home (4th best in MLB) Im betting they have an edge vs a Braves side that has not travelled well this season as is evident by losing 18 of 27  away games while batting  .232 on the road ranking 21st in MLB. 

Play on the Phillies to win

 Memorial Day matinee will begin with a pair of ace right-handers on the mound. Kevin Gausman (4-4, 4.03 ERA) will start for the Blue Jays while Texas will counter with Jacob deGrom (4-1, 2.33). DeGrom  a 2 time Cy /Young award winner / won four straight starts until a no-decision in his most recent outing and give an edge to the Rangers. 

Teams like Toronto when the money line is +125 to -125 - after being swept on the road in a 3 game series by a division rival are 9-34 since 2021.

Play on the Rangers to win

Mets starter Kodai Senga has been in top form this season as is evident by a 1.43 ERA and in a key data point has only allowed j one home run across 10 starts via. a5.2% Barrel%  . He is backed by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 2.89.  Meanwhile, Dodgers starter Landen Knack has  has made four starts and two relief appearances in the big leagues this season while garnering a  6.17 ERA, 5.23 xERA, and a 5.18 FIP over 23.1 innings of sub par work .  He has allowed a .313 BABIP but has allowed   five home runs out of his 26 hits. I know the Dodgers bats are more explosive than those of the Mets, but pitching is key here to having the Mets grab the rubber match. NY Mets in home games on the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game are 10-1 L/11.LA Dodgers on the run line after having won 2 of their last 3 games are 3-14 L/17 overall opportunities.

Play on the Mets to win 

The Boston Red Sox starter  today Walker Buehler owns a 4.00 ERA and is 4-1  on the campaign and  has allowed three runs or less in each of his last five starts. Buehler will make his third career start against the Orioles, having gone 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings against them. On the flipside - Orioles starter Dean Kremer owns a bloated 5.50 ERA,  and is backed by a  sub par bullpen that has recorded a 5.67 ERA ( 27th in MLB). The pitching matchup and home field advantage support  a high probability Boston win. Kremer has a 2-4 record and 5.64 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox

 Baltimore Orioles have only hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 46 games (-25.45 Units / -45% ROI)

Baltimore won yesterday - Baltimore on the money line after a win are 3-15 L/18 overall.

MLB Road teams - terrible offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) (AL), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 9-45 since 2021.

Play on the Red Sox

The pitching matchup for Saturday's game will feature a pair of right-handers in San Diego's Michael King (4-2, 2.59 ERA) and Atlanta's Grant Holmes (2-3, 4.01). King has a 3.63 ERA  away  and Holmes has a 2.63 ERA at home.  Holmes has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts .

Braves offense are up-trending offensively  , hitting .280 over their last ten games compared to the San Diego Padres only hitting .210.The Atlanta  Braves are 15-8 at home this season. The Padres are 12-13 on the road tilts.

 The Atlanta Braves have hit the Money-line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+4.60 Units / 15% ROI)

The Padres took game 1 of this series as underdogs but now Im betting on a rebound from the Braves in game 2. 

Play on the Braves to win

Angels Kikuchi has a 2.38 ERA in four May starts, as he has  only allowed a total  6 earned runs in 22.2 innings of top tier pitching. The Halos southpaw has also flourished at home where he owns a  1.65 ERA . On the flipside - The Marlins starter. Alcantara owns a ugly 7.47 ERA in three May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 15.2 innings of sub par hurling. Miami is also  0-6 in his last six start and it has been on the road where he struggles the most as is evident by a  14.81 ERA . The pitching matchup favors the angels who are hitting at better clip than the Marlins over the last 10 games. note: When 2 below .500 teams meet the favorite is 55-30 this season for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on the LAA on the ML

Braves starter Smith-Shawver has a 0.46 ERA in three May starts, allowing  just one earned run in 19.2 innings of top tier pitching. The Braves are 5-0 in his last five starts and he gets the nid again behind strong momentum. Both these sides are off a day off,   when that happens  the  favorite is 49-25 for a 66% conversion rate this season.

.Play on Atlanta 

AJ Hinch is going with a bullpen game on Wednesday and the Cards bats will I project have a decent outing. Meanwhile, Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante is a ground-ball type pitcher, and will thus keep Motowns bigger power hitters in check giving us an edge with the Cartds in this spot play situation. Pallante allowed two runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 10-3 victory over the Royals in Kansas City on Friday and has momentum entering this tilt.. St.Louis is 16-7 at home this season. Detroit on the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 9-27 L/36 opportunities.

Play on the Cards

Tampa Bay in home games on the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better are 1-12 L/13 opportunities. Tampa Bay vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better are 0-4 this season. ( Hunter qualifies)

Houston on the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent are 6-0 L/6 opportunities.

Play on the Houston Astros

Dodgers are in bounce back mode after falling asleep at the wheel vs the Angels this past weekend where they were swept. 

The Dodgers bats have done well vs Arizonas starting pitcher  Pfaadt hitting .286 in  98 at-bats, while Knack the Dodgers starter has held the D-backs to a .107 batting average in 28 at bats.

Better bullpen teams like the Dodgers  on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 over the last couple of season and are 40-26 so far this season. 

Play on the Dodgers to win 

Clevelands starter Abbott has a 0.60 ERA in three May starts, allowing just 1 earned run in 15 innings of elite pitching. At home is where he has really dominated as is evident by a 1.20 ERA. Meanwhile, Ortiz has a 4.76 ERA in two May starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched and has garnered a  7.29 ERA on the road. Advantage Reds 

Red Sox starter Bello owns  a 1.69 ERA in three May starts, allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 innings of quality pitching.  Meanwhile,  Braves starter Schwellenbach has a 4.86 ERA on the road  this season and his team has lost 18 of 24 road games. 
After last nights walk off 7-6 win the BoSox have momentum heading into the finale of this series and have the edge. MLB team like the Bosox with a starting pitcher with sub par control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are 43-16 on the ML dating back to the 2021 season.

Atlanta in road games on the money line in day games are just 2-8. this season.

Play on the Boston to win

Twins starter Pablo Lopez is 16-4  as a favorite  of between  -118 to -130 in the L6  campaigns.  On the flip-side,  the Brewers are  4-16   as a moneyline underdog this season and are fade material once again according to my power rankings. 

Play on the Twins

Both these  teams enter this game coming off of losses- Note:When that happens  the favorite is 31-13 on the moneyline  with a 14% ROI. The Giants are rested and the AS are not -  Teams with a day off are 66-33 on the ml with a 9% ROI this season.

The Giants are 12-2  as a home night chalk of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last six seasons and get the nod here again in this spot play. Webb is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA at home this season. SF  has the superior  bullpen, registering a ERA of 2.68  which ranks (1st in MLB) versus a Athletics bullpen that has recorded a  5.75 ranking 27th. 

We are laying some big lumber today but our chances of winning negate that hefty juice. 

Play on the Giants to win 

Arizona is off a big series against the Giants and could easily be a in letdown situation vs a Colorado team that Im sure their over looking. The Dbacks have lost 16 of their L/22 overall games  after facing SF. 

Play on the Rockies to win

Guardians are  25-6 in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in the last 2 plu  seasons. Cincinnati in home games on the money line against AL Central opponents are just 2-9 this season on the moneyline.  Cleveland on the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse are 25-7 L/32 opportunities.

LATE STEAM

Guardians to win

The pitching matchup for Wednesday will feature Atlanta right-hander Bryce Elder (2-2, 4.97 ERA) against Washington left-hander Mitchell Parker (3-3, 3.97). Washington is struggling and Atlanta is showing better overall all play entering this game.  Over his last four starts, Elder is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA. and up-trending in  my pitcher vs batting order power rankings  and gets my support tonite. Elder has made four career starts against Washington, recording a  2-1 record along  with a 3.16 ERA. That includes a shutout in 2022 for Elder, who did not face the Nationals last season. Nats pitcher Parker is on a two game losing streak. 

Teams like Washington on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a  ugky 30-91 s in the next game when playing as away dogs.Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning with a less. than .430 win %   on the season are  59-127 .Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and going aginstt divisional opponents are a sub par 34-68 . 

Play on the Braves to win 

SF starter ROBBIE RAY on the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 has seen his team go 7-0 and 8-0 on the money line in all games he has started this season. Left-hander Robbie Ray (5-0, 2.84), has allowed a total of five runs across 25 innings over his past four starts and gives the Giants a viable opportunity to cash for us in this spot play situation. Teams with superior bullpens like the Giants who are  on a  three-plus game losing streak have gone  37-21 for +12.39 units, an ROI of 21.4% this season. 

Play on the SF Giants to win 

Justin Verlander is 2-8 ( at home against NL teams with a winning record in the last six seasons.Verlander (0-2, 4.50 ERA) has yet to record a win in eight starts since signing with San Francisco in the offseason. 

 Favorites are 18-1 in the last 19 games in this series. NY Mets on the money line vs. a starting pitcher like Skenes with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 10-1 L/11 opportunities.

Play on the NYM

Braves starter Smith-Shawver has given up two earned runs or less in four of his five starts this season and is a viable pitcher tp back in his current form. Meanwhile The Pirates starting hurler  Heaney has a 3.57 ERA at home this season. The Braves have the superior bullpen, with a 3.71 ERA  vs the Pirates  4.30  mark.

The Braves have the better offense, hitting .239 with 41 homers and 151 runs scored compared to the Pirates batting a lowly .218 with 28 homers and 121 runs scored.

Chalk like the Braves with line movement in their direction who made the post season  the previous campaign are 135-63  for a 68% conversion rate along with a viable 9% ROI. 

Play on the Braves to win

 The Mariners enter this game against the Blue Jays  having won nine straight series -- including taking two of three meetings  in Toronto on April 18-20. The rested Mariners had Thursday off and will be ready to keep their winning ways alive tonight .

Jays starter  Gausman is winless in three starts since April 15 and is 1-4 in his career vs the Mariners. 

Castillo did not get a decision last time out despite of giving up just one run on four hits in six innings. He's 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA in five career starts against the Blue Jays, beating them 8-3 on April 20. Rinse and repeat on the agenda from my betting perspective. 

MLB Road teams - terrible offensive team (3.6 or lessruns/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better ) (AL), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games. are 8-43 since 2021.

Play on Seattle to win

Milwaukee starter Jose Quintana is 17-4 overall   as a opening line   favorite of  (-120 to -135) range in the last six seasons and 7-0 on the road.  Also Milwaukee in away games on the money line when playing with a day off are 12-2 l/14. I know the Brewers bats have been cold of late, but they are 17-4 L/21 when batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win

The Blue Jays starter Berrios is 5-1 in L/ 6 starts. The Toronto righty hurler owns a  2.60 ERA on the road compared to 5.01 at home. Meanwhile, on the flipside , the Angels are 1-6 in Kickuchi’s  L/7starts.Toronto is hitting .246 against left handed pitching  this season ranking 12th in MLB. Los Angeles is only hitting .220 against right handers this season. Advantage goes to the Jays . Home teams are 11-21   in the last 32 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.

Play on the Jays to win 

The Orioles have won its last 10   games versus  the Twins and are being vastly under rated in this spot play situation. Note:Baltimore on the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 are 13-4 L/17 opportunities dating back to 2023.

Play on the Orioles to win

NYY are 0-5  as a moneyline underdog this season. Yesterday the Yanks held a 3-0 lead late in the game vs the Padres until the bull pen  folded allowing 4 runs in a 4-3 loss. Ugly as it was Im betting the momentum remains intact here and the Padres get the job done again on a value line. 

Play on the Padres 

The San Diego Padres have one of the most talented MLB pitching staffs, but their road record  ranks  the middle of the league standings for pitchers. Considering Padres starter Nick Pivetta is 0-11  in road matchups against NYY or Tampa Bay since the  2020 campaign this looks to be a viable opportunity to back the home side Yankees in this spot play situation.  Pivetta is 1-4 with a 6.99 ERA in 13 career appearances (eight starts) against the Yankees 

Play on NYY

Guardians  are 24-5 in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee over the last few campaigns. Jays have lost 10 of their L/14 day games,

Cleveland is 9-3 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

Cleveland to win

Joe Ryan is a good pitcher off a good outing last time out, but his issue has always been giving up home runs and here in Fenway trouble could easily be on the horizon of the Green Monster. 

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a winning record, playing on Friday are 94-175 since 1997.

Tigers offense is average at best , but they hit lefties like the struggling Kikiuchi well as they  rank ninth in wOBA  with a  .323 and sixth in wRC+ with a  111. The Halos are also a mess,  as is evident by losing five in a row and seven of their L/8 overall. On the flipside considering how well Case Mize ( 2.12 ERA with a 2.44 xERA and a 3.99 FIP), has pitched for the Tigers it wont be a hard decision to back them here tonite. LA Angels on the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) are 0-6 this season.Detroit on the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46% ) are 7-0 this season.

Play on the Tigers to win

Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is 2-12   in the month of April in the last four seasons. He a notorious slow starter and is fade material in this spot play situation. MLB Road teams like the Red Sox - after 2 straight wins by 6 runs or more against opponent after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more are 10-34 since the 2021 campaign.

Play on Toronto

Twins starting hurler  Bailey Ober has been no better than a low velocity pitching machine  this  season, as is evident by allowing five home runs in 5 starts this season . In  25 innings of sub standard outing he has garnered a hefty 5.04 ERA and is projected to be cannon fodder against the Guardians tonite. Meanwhile, Cleveland's starting pitcher Gavin Williams,  , has only given up two earned runs or less in four of his five starts this season and is averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings in his L/4 trips to the hill. When and if he leaves this game he is backed by  MLB  best bullpen in ERA dating back to the beginning of last season.  MLB team - team with a poor OBP like Minnesota (.320 or less) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games. are 42-19 since 1997.Cleveland on the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) are 12-1 L/13 since last season.Cleveland on the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 are 42-13 since last season.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has been in sub par form since the season began and during his entire tenure with the team  allowing at least three runs in six of his 10 career MLB outings. He has an ERA of 8.22 since the 2024.  Meanwhile Guardians starting hurler Tanner Bibee has a 5.85 ERA. However Clevelands edge has Bibee backed up by the bullpen with the lowest ERA in MLB dating back to last season. Overall pitching advantage resides with the Guardians.

Cleveland in home games on the money line in the first half of the season are 32-9 dating back to last season.Cleveland in home games on the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games are 17-3 dating back to last season.

Play on Cleveland to win

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester has been in top form since signing with Milwaukee,  as is evident by allowing only one run in  10 innings in his first two starts of the campaign. Meanwhile, the Giants starter  Robbie Ray ( 1.9 home runs and seven walks per nine innings allowed) has had problems with control and that could give an early edge to the Brewers which Im betting results in a subsequent victory. Milwaukee in road games on the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better are 5-0 since 2023.

Play on the Brewers to win

San Diego on the money line against right-handed starters are a perfect 11-0 this season. Astros will start R.Gusto tonite who is a right hander. Meanwhile, the Astros continue to struggle offensively as is evident by being tied for 25nd in batting average (.216), tied for 21st in on-base percentage (.300) and 27th in slugging percentage (.317) and OPS (.617).On the flipside, the Padres continue to produce offense and must be respected in the underdog role . 

Texas in home games on the money line against right-handed starters are perfect 6-0 this season and get the nod again vs Angels righty J. Kochanowic. 

Cincinnatis Singer is 3-0 this season along with a 3.18 ERA and gets my support here this afternoon vs the Mariners. Seattle in road games on the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better are 0-8 since 2023.

Cincinnati is 3-1 against the money line hosting Seattle since the 2023 season.

Seattle in an inter-league games are 0-4 this season.

Seattle on the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.5 or less runs/game on the season are 0-7 L/7 overall.

MLB Road teams - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 50-124 since 2021 for a 71% go against conversion rate.

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win

 Athletics send out righty Osvaldo Bido (1-1, 3.00 ERA) and the White Sox reply   l with another RHP  Jonathan Cannon (0-2, 5.79 ERA). the pitching advantage resides with the As. NOTE : Manager. JEFFREY SPRINGS on the money line as a favorite of -150 or more is a perfect 11-0 with the Athletics.

The As won yesterday convincingly and get the nod again with momentum.

Favorites with line movement in their direction like the As are 107-62   this season for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Favorites -150 or more are 70-33 this season. Chalk with a below .500 record playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 45-26 for a 63% conversion rate. 

Play on the As to win 

The St. Louis Cardinals have climbed back to .500 by winning four of their last six games and have momentum entering this game. Their victories have come against some of the best hurlers in MLB : Paul Skenes, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez. So they look like live dogs here today. 

The Astros are  3-10   as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown on the hill. Meanwhile, Cards starter  Erick Fredde is 18-10   in the -115 to +110 line range.  right- Fedde  no-hit and blanked the Pirates for six innings in his last start  and also has momentum. 

Cards when at home when the money line is +125 to -125 are a perfect 5-0 this season.

Saint Louis on the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 are 5-0 L/5.

Houston in away games on the money line against NL Central opponents is 0-6 L/6 sine last season.

Play on the Cards to win 

Phillies right handed  starter Taijuan Walker is 6-19   at night against teams with a .550 win pct in the last five seasons. Note: Giants against right-handed starters are 9-2 this season.

 Light home chalk like the Phillies of -111 to -180 have been fairly bad bets  in the first game of any home-stand, going 268-233  losing their backers more than -62 units . 

to this point in the season the Giants offense has been more consistent than the Phillies, and  the  Giants also have procured the better bullpen numbers with a  ERA 1.82 of  compared to Phillys 4.27 ERA ).

San Francisco on the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors are 7-0 L/7 overall. Francisco on the money line after 2 or more consecutive road games are 6-0 L/6 overall.

Play on the Giants to win 

Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has looked red hot so far this season, but in his career he has not been the  same pitcher  road, as is evident by recording  a career 2.73 ERA at home compared to a 4.05 ERA in away tilts. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon while not consistent is a quality hurler, who gives the Yanks explosive offense strong support. There is to much value here with the Yanks to not support them in this spot situation. Note:LOGAN WEBB on the money line against AL East opponents is 1-9 in his career.

Play on the NYY to win

Houston recorded  a season-high run total in a 14-3 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Friday and their offense now enters this contest  with momentum. Rookie right-hander Ryan Gusto (1-0, 1.13 ERA) will make his first career start for the Astros on Saturday- He led the Pacific Coast League in strikeouts (141) and ERA (3.70) last season with Triple-A Sugar Land and gets my backing here tonite. Meanwhile,  LH Tyler Anderson (0-0, 4.50 ERA) gors to the hill to start for the  Angels on Saturday. Anderson is 1-5 with a 6.43 ERA over 11 career starts against the Astros.

Home favorites are 89-46  this season. Home favorites off a victory playing an opponent off a loss are 43-24 .LA Angels in road games on the run line when playing on Saturday have lost 12 of their L/15 overall. considering.Saturday  home favorites between -150 and -200 are 49-27  since last season the Halos look like prime go against material.

Play on the Astros to win 

Right-hander Griffin Canning (0-1, 2.79 ERA) is slated to start for the Mets against left-hander JP Sears (1-1, 3.46).

Griffin Canning is 1-12  on the road in the +105 to -130 line range dating back 6 seasons.GRIFFIN CANNING on the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 is 0-9 since last season.GRIFFIN CANNING on the money line when playing on Friday is also 0-9.Canning is 3-5 with a 4.84 ERA in 11 career starts against the Athletics.

Im betting that the As get to Canning here in what looks to be a hitter friendly park.

The Rays have a  scheduling edge in this tilt vs the visiting Braves who are already 0-7 on the road this season.  Tampa Bay played a day game at home on Thursday . Meanwhile, the Braves played a very late game last nite thanks to rain delays and then had to catch a  late flight to Tampa Bay. One team is well rested while the other is probably a little pooped. 

Atlanta in road games on the money line against right-handed starters like Bradley are 0-6 this season.

TB gave up alot of runs yesterday in a 11-1 loss to the Angels , but the good news is the Rays are 10-1 after giving up 10 runs or more since the 2023 season.

Home favorites like Tamp Bay  are 83-43  this season for a 66% conversion rate.  . Interleague home favorites are 35-14 for. a 71% conversion rate.  Non-division chalk with steam action of  10-cents or more  in their direction are 37-19. ( the Rays qualify)

Play on Tampa Bay to win 

Angels send righty Jose Soriano (1-1, 3.65 ERA) and the Rays  will return fire with fellow right hander Zach Littell (0-2, 4.15 ERA). 

Big diff in offensive production - The Angels  have , hit 18 homers with 54 runs scored compared to the Rays hitting 8 homers with 42 runs scored.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent good offensive team - scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season are 48-88 since 2021.

LAA to win

Texas Starter Patrick Corbin, who is making his first start of the campaign looks to be cannon fodder according to my projections.   Corbin went 6-13 with a 5.62 ERA last season with the Nationals and is a fade material here in this spot play. Meanwhile, the  the Cubs will go with  right hander  Jameson Taillon (1-1, 6.97 ERA).It must noted that  Non-division home favorites off a victory like the Cubs  with steam 10-cents or more are 25-4 with a 42% ROI this season.Also Home chalk off a victory playing opp off a loss are 35-16  with a 14% ROI this season. Inter-league home favorites  like the Cubs are 33-12  with a 24% ROI this season.  

As brilliant as Skenes has been so far in his career, he has yet to earn a win against the Cardinals, going 0-2 in three career starts despite having a 1.31 ERA over 20 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray is 10-2 as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last six seasons. The Cards have won both Grays starts this season and are a value play here in this spot play situation. 

Houston starter H. Wesneski. vs a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) has won 3 of his L/4 starts. Meanwhile Logan Gilbert Seattles starter is a viable pitcher, but he will most likely not get much run support here as his offense is averaging just .219 BA and a .289 OBP and an average of 3 rpg. 

The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI

Seattle on the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities are just 4 -15 L/19 opportunities. Seattle in home games on the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better are 0-5 L/5 dating back to 2023.

Play on Houston to win 

 Padres offense enters this game having scored four or more runs in six of eight contests so far season, and Im betting their scoring heroics will continue to against the Cubs.The San Diego Padres had won seven in a row to start the 2025 season before last night’s loss to the Chicago Cubs, and a bounce back effort vs Boyd a pitcher my power rankings suggest the Padres matchup well against. 

Play on San Diego Padres to win 

The Diamondbacks are preparing for their fourth straight win after starting the series vs the Yankees with a pair of close victories . With the Yankees  starter Carrasco  on the downside of his long career the Dback have an edge here.  Last season, Carrasco went 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA in 21 starts for the Cleveland Guardians.Meanwhile, on  the flip-side, Dbacks starter  Kelly is 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees and he gets the nod here tonite. 

NY Yankees in home games on the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game are 4-12 since a 2024.NY Yankees in home games on the money line after a one run loss are 2-8 L/10.\

Arizona on the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 are 25-11 since 2024.

Play on Arizona to win

The Detroit Tigers' left-hander and reigning American League Cy Young Award winner is my pick to continue his domination of the Seattle Mariners this afternoon. The Tigers Im betting will complete a  three-game sweep of the Mariners after recording  9-6 and 4-1 victories the first two games of this series. Skubal is 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts against Seattle;  .Seattle starter Luis Castillo is 0-5  vs Detroit in the last six seasons. 

Play on the Tigers to win 

Braves have lost their first 4 games of the season , and things dont look to get much better here tonite vs the Dodgers and their starter Tyler Glasnow is 36-9 ( as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons (including 22-5  in home starts) Tyler Glasnow is 11-2 vs. NL East teams in the last six seasons.  Glasnow, is 1-1 lifetime against the Braves in four starts, with a 2.38 ERA. The Dodgers are already 5-0 on the season and get the nod here tonight.

Play on the Dodgers to win 

First two games of this series have featured fairly high scoring affairs with 16 total run and 9 runs last night meeting.Cubs scored 10 runs in the opener and came back with just 1 last night, but the Dbacks put 8 on the board.  The roof is expected to be open tonite.

 National League team like the Cubs with a very good starting pitcher like IMANAGA(L)  ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 43-10 OVER since 1997 for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

-The weather at Chase Field for the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game is expected to favor the hitters. Warm desert temperature around 75°F with low humidity at 16%, amplify ball carry. Light winds at 10.9 mph blowing from left to right may favor right-handed hitters slightly. With no precipitation expected and clear skies, anticipate a fairly high-scoring affair.

Play over

Griffin Canning is 1-11 n away games in the +105 to -130 line range in L6 seasons.

The Mariners  bats were on fire in spring ball as is evident by averaging 6.6 runs per game, and I’m betting they smash the  Athletics starter Luis Severino in todays opener. Seattle starter Logan Gilbert, is as reliable a hurler there is in MLB as is evident by garnering a solid 3.38 ERA and 3.53 xFIP over the L/3 seasons .When he leaves this game he is backed by a top 10 bullpen from last season. Last season the As lost 17 of 26 division road tilts while the Mariners won 18 of 26 home games vs division opposition. 

The wrong team is favored here in my betting opinion. The NYM are jam packed in the middle of the lineup with offensive fire power, while the Astros are now without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman  who left during the offseason. no longer can the Astros be looked at as contenders while the Mets can be.

Play on the NY Mets to win 

The Red Sox did some quality up grading in the off season by signing  former All-Star infielder Alex Bregman, starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, and closer Aroldis Chapman.

The BoSox will start left hander  Crochett today who had a top tier spring  striking out 30 while garnering  0.57 ERA in 15 2/3 innings.  Texas overall did not fare well  offensively against southpaws last season and Im betting on more of same here today.

Meanwhile, the Rangers starter Eovaldi, according to my early season power rankings does not matchup well vs this deep BoSox batting order. 

Play on the Red Sox to win 

 The Dodgers pitchers have a 4.36 ERA in 11 play off games and have surrendered 13 homers and if it were not for their offense would have not made it to the World Series.Dodgers starters collectively own a 6.08 ERA in 11 tilts. . Meanwhile,  Yanks  rotation owns a 3.89 ERA in nine starts with a 43/13 K/BB ratio in 44 innings, with the bullpen working 38.2 innings in nine games with a 2.56 ERA and a reliever has been the pitcher of record in five of those seven victories. Opponents own a ugly .206 BA against them. 

I know the Dodgers offense has looked unstoppable , but with the likes of Soto and, Judge on the Yankees dugout they may have met their match.  

NY Yankees starter today GERRIT COLE on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season is on a 8-0 run dating back to the 2023 season.

NY Yankees in road games on the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more are on a 9-0 run.

NY Yankees in road games on the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better are on a 5-0 winning run!

NY Yankees in road games on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record are 32-13 L/35 opportunities.

Play on NY Yankees to win

The New York Mets will had tnhe ball to  Sean Manaea in game 6 vs the Dodgers . He prepares to make his fourth start of the play offs , after recording a  2.65 ERA in the post season..  In Los Angeles in game 2 of this series . he allowed just  two earned runs in five innings to pick up a victory for the New York Mets.Im betting on a rinse and repat situation and for the Mets to cash for us an underdogs.

NY Mets starter SEAN MANAEA in road starts on the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season is a perfect 5-0 dating back to the 2023 season and when he starts vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season is 6-0 this season.

NY Mets in road games on the money line when playing with a day off are 7-1 L/8 opportunities.NY Mets on the money line after scoring 12 runs or more are 6-0 this season.NY Mets in road games on the money line vs. a starting pitcher like the Dodgers Knack who gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 11-3 this season.LA Dodgers in home games on the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 12 or more runs are 0-6 dating back to the 2022 season.

Play on NY Mets to win

The Guardians, one out away from a 3-0 deficit in the best-of-seven series,recieved a gift from the baseball gods via a two-run homer from pinch hitter Jhonkensy Noel in the bottom of the ninth inning and a two-run shot from David Fry in the 10th to earn a 7-5 win on Thursday, but now Im betting on them crashing back down to earth here today vs the Yankees. it must be noted that Yankees starter LUIS GIL in road starts on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record is 8-1 since the 2022 season. Meanwhile, the guardians starter GAVIN WILLIAMS on the money line in home games is on. a 0-7 run.WILLIAMS on the money line when pitching in night games has seen his team lost 8 of his L/9 nocturnal events. NY Yankees in road games on the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more are 7-0 L/7 opportunities.

Play on the NYY to win

NYM starter Luis Severino has pitched well in the post season, but here against a explosive Dodgers offense,   that has averaged 5.2 runs per game in thepost season, best among playoff teams, including  5.5 rpg in away tilts  during the regular season which ranked them 1st in MLB, he does not matchup well . Starter LUIS SEVERINO on the money line in the league championship series is 0-8 in his career. LUIS SEVERINO on the money line in a playoff series which is tied is 0-6 in his career. I know Buehler the Dodgers starter has looked inconsistent at times, all season long, but he has been uptredning in out charts, and is backed by a rested Dodgrs core bullpen - Evan Phillips (.000 OBA in three appearances), Blake Treinen (0.00 ERA in three appearances), Michael Kopech (0.00 ERA in four appearances), or Alex Vesia (0.00 ERA). 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win

This is it, the loser here goes home while the winner advances to the ALCS. Im only looking one way here in this tilt in Cleveland. With the ultra talented Tarik Skubal  going to the hill for the  Detroit Tigers, Im betting they have an edge. The young southpaws record stands at 18-4  along with a  2.39 ERA and enters this game in top form as is evident by have allowed five total runs in his last seven starts between the regular season and playoffs across 45 2/3 innings of quality work. He will be backed by a bullpen that owned the best bullpen in the league fro m August 1  on with  a solid  2.71 ERA.  Meanwhile, former Tigers Boyd will take to the mound for the Guardians. and is also backed by a strong bullpen. But you can bet the Tigers have an extensive book on Boyd, and that gives them an edge here behind a offense that ranked forst in the league from Aug 13th on.  Bottom line here is that the the Guardians have produced  just seven runs in the last 35 innings and against Skubal and company their fuitilty Im betting will continue.TARIK SKUBAL on the money line when playing on Saturday his team is 12-2 in his career. Detroit in road games on the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival are on a 7-1 run.

Play on Detroit to win

The Padres won their second consecutive game in the current series, in a  6-5 home victory over the Dodgers and are on the verge of eliminating the Dodgers for the second strait year.  Im betting the Dodgers will not go down without a fight and will be prepared to light up the Fathers  Dylan Cease here and his supporting bullpen.  Cease gave up five runs on six hits over 3 1/3 innings in Game 1,to the Dodgers and projects to have an average at best outing here tonight. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will reply with a with a bullpen game. The Dodgers bullpen has been lit up quite regularly for a while now and nothing changes in this spot vs a Padres offense that has averaged 5.3 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 22-5 OVER L/27 with a combined average of 11.7 rpg.

The Royals are set to send right-hander Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo made the AL All-Star team this year and finished 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts. He shut down the Yankees on Sept. 10, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings.In his career vs. the Yankees, he is 5-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 14 games (four starts). Rinse and repeat on a value line here as I back the RoyaLS.