Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 230.5 | 114-118 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Philadelphia is red hot, and Im betting on the Blazers trying to be more physical with their opponent in an effort to slow them down and take away from their flow. this Im betting results in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers are expecting. Under is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Rivers is 37-20 UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 197.1 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 30-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-11-21 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 219 | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Detroit ranks 23rd in offence behind the 24th ranked pace, while Indiana is ranked middle of the road in all key categories. From a projections stand point my number is closer to 216 which gives us a one possession advantage to the under. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after a game where they covered the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 36-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, vs. division opponents are 216- 142 L/24 seasons for a 60% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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02-11-21 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | 106-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
The Raptors have had this game circled on their schedule for a while, as they look for revenge for a Celtics team that eliminated from last seasons play off bubble. With the Celtics off an extended road trip, Im betting they will take time to get used to home cooking and vulnerable in this spot vs a Raptors side that has surpassed 120 points in each of their past five games. Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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02-10-21 | Bucks v. Suns +5.5 | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Milwaukee is off a big time effort last time out vs Denver. and are vulnerable to be upset here vs a Suns side that has won and cover 6 of their L/7 overall. The Bucks win was a double revenge scenario for two losses last season, so the Bucks came in prepared and put in a start to finish effort last time out in the High altitudes of Denver, which will have them on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown state . Note:Phoenix is 33-4 SU L/37 in this series , including 10-2 ATS in tilt where the Bucks own an above .500 record including 6-0 ATS at home. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in five consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are 5-28 SU L/24 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover |
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02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 95-133 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Cleveland runs the 26th ranked pace 10th ranked ppg defence and 29th ranked ppg offence. Here against a side that ranks 28th in pace a much slower grinding game in the high altitudes of the Mile High City is to be expected.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 209.9 ppg scored. Bickerstaff is 10-1 UNDER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game as the coach of CLEVELAND with a combined average of 206.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 32-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 44-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.Play UNDER |
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02-10-21 | Clippers v. Wolves +9 | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Los Angeles lost 119-115 to the Boston Celtics on Friday and 113-110 to the Sacramento Kings two nights later and not at the top of their game entering this tilt and vulnerable here to another down effort on the road. Note: Minnesota has covered 6 straight and are in a competitive mode right now . Home underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 51-22 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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02-10-21 | Pacers +1.5 v. Nets | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
The Pacers Im betting are good bets to halt a three-game losing streak Wednesday night against the defensively deficient Brooklyn Nets that is also on a 3 game losing streak and will be on tired legs tonight. BROOKLYN is 8-21 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits here and get the nod to cover. Note: The Nets are 0-17-1 ATS /2-16 SU with no rest after allowing 50-plus points in the paint last game which was the case yesterday. Play on Indiana to cover |
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02-10-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Mavs | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Atlanta deserves respect here as one of the most under rated teams in the NBA. Tonight against a tired Mavericks side preparing to play their 6th game in 10 nights the visitors have the edge on this line. Note: DALLAS is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. DALLAS is also 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games this season.DALLAS is 1-8 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season
NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record are 15-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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02-09-21 | Celtics v. Jazz -5.5 | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Tuesday's contest will be the ninth road outing in 11 games for Boston and are on tired legs and vulnerable here in Salt Lake city. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-09-21 | Magic v. Blazers -6 | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Orlando will enter off a two-game split at Chicago where they won the first game 123-119 against the Bulls but dropped the rematch 118-92 on Saturday. It was the fifth time the Magic were held to 92 points or less this season. With that said, Im betting the Magic are just not fluid enough offensively to hang here. The Magic are 0-10 ATS/SU after allowing 50-plus points in the paint last game and have failed to coved by more than 16 ppg. |
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02-08-21 | Bucks v. Nuggets UNDER 234 | 125-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
The Bucks are know for their offense but their defense is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and will be key here tonight in the Mile High City vs the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Denver is ranked 28th in pace, and will be prepared to grind away here in an effort to slow down the Bucks. MILWAUKEE is 11-1 UNDER off a road blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out vs Cleveland in a 124-99 victory. The average combined score of those 12 games rings in at 219 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-11 UNDER 24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 77-37 L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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02-08-21 | Bucks v. Nuggets +4 | 125-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Milwaukee is 9-40 all-time in games played in Denver and lost both matchups last season and according to my projections are being over rated against a Nuggets team that knows how to slow this opponent. Look for Nuggets super star Jokic to out duel,Giannis Antetokounmpo and company and get us the cover.MILWAUKEE is 5-15 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 6-19 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons.DENVER is 18-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Play on Denver to cover |
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02-08-21 | Wolves +9.5 v. Mavs | 122-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Minnesota has had some breakdowns of late, but for the most part have been very competitive covering 5 straight games. Meanwhile, Dallas continues to struggle having lost 7 of their L/9 with the victories coming by 5 and 2 points. Anything at or better offers good line value here.DALLAS is 1-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games this season which is the case entering this tilt. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS/1-6 SU L/7 at home as chalk. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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02-08-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Bulls | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that there is value with the underdog in this spot play based on style of play and one sides ability to deal with that type of basketball. Chicago for a long time has had problems with run and gun offenses. CHICAGO is 13-30 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO is 5-21 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
NBA Road teams (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 25-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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02-08-21 | Rockets -105 v. Hornets | 94-119 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
The Hornets, host the Houston Rockets on Monday in the second game of a back-to-back. The Hornets won the fiorst game but Im betting their luck runs out here tonight. Borrego is 3-13 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more in all games he has coached. Play on Houston to cover |
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02-07-21 | Heat v. Knicks +6 | 109-103 | Push | 0 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Miami has had a very rigorous schedule, and are on tired legs against what my power rankings estimate to be the best conditioned team in the NBA . Note:MIAMI is 5-15 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Heat previous to a blowout win last time out had lost 7 of 8, and just don't look like solid favs in this spot. Recently the Heat have accumulated a 4-13 ATS (record ) after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons and are fade material for me once again in this spot play vs a up trending NY Knicks team. Knicks HC Thibodeau is 105-77 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game in all games he has coached in his pro carrier. NY Knicks to cover |
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02-07-21 | Jazz v. Pacers +5 | 103-95 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Two sides playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum go head to head this Sunday afternoon in NBA action. The Jazz who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on tired legs are in top form having won 14 of their L/15 games. Meanwhile, the Pacers have lost 4 of their L/5 , but have been competitive this season, and must be respected as home underdogs. |
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02-07-21 | Wizards -1 v. Hornets | 97-119 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 39 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings this Bradley Beals lead Wizards side matchs up very well vs the Charlotte Hornets and give me enough edge on the offered line to recommend we back them here this afternoon. |
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02-06-21 | Pistons +13.5 v. Lakers | 129-135 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
I know the Lakers have revenge on board for a surprising loss to the Pistons earlier this season , but the Pistons play a type of hoops that actually matches up well against the obviously more talented team. Also despite of their ugly W/L record Detroit has covered 11 of their L/19 and are well conditioned enough to make the Lakers work hard for a win here on the road despite of them playing last night. DETROIT is 10-2 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season. LA LAKERS are 12-29 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons NBA Underdogs (DETROIT) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 26-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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02-06-21 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans | 109-118 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans have struggled to find consistency this season.But they have won four of their last six games after holding on for a 114-113 win at Indiana on Friday but now on tired legs in this back to back situation Im betting the Grizzlies who are 7-2 L/9 have the edge. Note: Grizzlies: 5-0 ATS L/5 as division road dogs of 6 points or less. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - inconsistent defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are are 44-71 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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02-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | 109-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies calling card and success and or failures are centered around a 7th ranked ppg defense. With the offense ranked just 22nd in the NBA its obvious Memphis will be out to center their attention on slowing this game down and Im betting that wont be a problem against a tired New Orleans side that played a hard fought game last night in a one point win. These projections on the style play and energy flow have me taking an under stance. MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 43-20 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 92-53 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs -4 | 132-134 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Dallas lost to Golden State last time out by a 147-111 count. It was an embarrassing blowout loss, that will now have the Mavericks ready and motivated for redemption . Carlisle is 47-22 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an embarrassing upset loss by 20 points or more as a favorite are 25-4 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 9.5. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 31-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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02-06-21 | Nets v. 76ers -3 | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
The Nets are off a loss last night against the Raptors and on tired legs, as they play a Philadelphia side off a an embarrassing loss to the depleted Portland squad this past Thursday. The 76ers also have revenge on board for a loss to the Nets the last time they played and will now be very motivated to get a win here today.PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Philadelphia head coach Doc Rivers is 14-3 ATS with same-season loss revenge of 10 or more points since 2007. PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 season. BROOKLYN is 8-20 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), hot shooting team - 5 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 23-53 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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02-05-21 | Celtics v. Clippers UNDER 219.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Im betting these two top tier teams take part in a post season style game that focuses on defence with special attention paid to the transition game. Boston ranks 9th in ppg allowed in the league and the Clippers ranks 4th.Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles. Play UNDER |
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02-05-21 | Pistons +8 v. Suns | 92-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
The Pistons franchise has had a great deal of success vs the Suns going 16-1 L17 in this series and have the edge as underdogs vs a Suns side that is 0-5 L/5 at home in 1/2 rest situation. PHOENIX is 1-13 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 10-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 19-45 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71%. Play on Detroit to cover |
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02-05-21 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 228.5 | 95-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Washingtons offense despite of their run and gun reputation have been quite inconsistent lately with their output numbers. In 5 of their L/7 games, they have scored 101,88, 106, 100, and 103 points. There were two offensive explosions, but those were against Brooklyn and Atlanta two teams that like to run and gun like them. Tonight Im betting their offensive output will once again be curtailed by a Heat side that ranks 23rd in pace and 26th in offensive production. This will contribute to this tilt staying on the low side of the number. Note. These teams played on Wednesday night with a 103-100 final score. Rinse and repeat scenario now on board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 23-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 45-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets UNDER 242 | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Since the Harden trade and his subsequent debut, the Nets are averaging 127 points on 51.8 percent shooting. They shot 57 percent Tuesday. However, as we all know those numbers are not sustainable, especially against a veteran team like Toronto that knows how to slow games down and turning them into grinding affairs. Thus Im betting that this combined score will remain on the low side of the total. TORONTO is 22-8 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Nurse in all 8 of his road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots as the coach of TORONTO has seen a combined score of 215.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more are 30-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 71-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 32-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-05-21 | Bucks v. Cavs UNDER 227 | 123-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that Cleveland will not score more than 105 points here tonight while the Bucks should score in the 116 range. Note:MILWAUKEE is 18-2 UNDER when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 215.4 ppg going on the board. The L/3 games in this series in Cleveland have gone under the set total and a rinse and repeat situation once again looks like a viable betting opportunity here based on my estimates and the fact that the Cavs own the 6th best ppg defense in the NBA and the 29th ranked pace. Play UNDER |
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02-05-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers -1 | 114-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are off a strong effort last time out beating up on the Suns by a 123-101 count and now are getting some decent respect on a line that Im not sure is deserved. After all this Pelicans side has shown themselves to be very inconsistent this season. I know the Pacers are off a DD loss, but that was to the Milwaukee Bucks who must be considered championship contenders.
Note: The Pacers beat the Pelicans 118-116 in overtime at New Orleans on Jan. 4 and here at home a reg time win is my projected outcome. Play on Indiana to cover |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 216 | 93-114 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Denver offence is clicking and Im betting they push the Lakers into a uptempo game here and make the champs work extra hard in this tilt. DENVER is 20-6 OVER after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is is 12-3 OVER in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons |
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02-04-21 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Memphis had their 7 game win steak snapped last time out by Indiana in a high scoring 134-116 event . I blame that down effort by the Grizzlies on their defence, which might of suffered because of tired legs on a rigorous schedule. The win streak was complimented by top tier defence, and now Im betting the Grizzlies returning to what made them successful here and that Im also betting contributes to this tilt staying on the low side of the total. Play UNDER |
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02-03-21 | Celtics v. Kings UNDER 226.5 | 111-116 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Sacramento has played well lately winning 3 of their L/5 with one loss by 1 point 96-95 , and Im attributing their recent success to playing good defense. Meanwhile, Boston is also playing top tier defensive hoops and ranking 8th in ppg defense. More of the same from both tonight. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5 or less TO's) are 26-7 UNDER L/ 24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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02-03-21 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | 101-123 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Phoenix ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and are good at cutting down on opponents downtown shooting, thus making them play inside the arc in the paint. Meanwhile, the Pelicans play a similar style of D, but are horrendous on offence and could easily be suffocated by a Suns side that is starting to get healthy. On the flip-side the Suns are inconsistent offensively, and dont get to the charity stripe often, ranking 2nd in FT attempts. These kinds of systems when I make a total projection shows value to the under. PHOENIX is 17-7 UNDER in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 15-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 20-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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02-03-21 | Wolves v. Spurs -8 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Spurs have struggled recently and have lost two straight, and are desperate to get back on track vs a Minnesota side that upset them 96-88 a few weeks ago. So revenge, redemption, give credence to me suggesting we lay the lumber here with the Spurs on home court. Note: San Antonio is 12-3 ATS with same-season loss revenge in this series, including 8-0 ATS from a defeat did not come by DDs.. SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. NBA home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an embarrassing upset loss by 20 points or more as a favorite are 23-4 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +9.5 . NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 44-18 ATS L/22 seasons L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. San Antonio to cover |
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02-03-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 233 | 110-130 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Indiana has been struggling to score and than suddenly last time out, they popped 134 points on 59.7% shooting against the Grizzlies, and now I expect a regression to the norm on tired legs in back to back games. This Im betting directly alters projections and gives us value on the under. INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER after a combined score of 245 points or more and s14-3 UNDER after scoring 130 points or more. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 29-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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02-02-21 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 227.5 | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Boston ranks 8th in defense ppg against and is the cornerstone of their successes and failures and nothing with change tonight vs the explosive Curry and the Warriors. The Celtics defensive posture and ability to control flow will lead to this being a lower scoring game than the linesmakers estimates. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good shooting team - shooting 46% or more on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 28-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-02-21 | Blazers v. Wizards -2 | 132-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
The Washington Wizards are fresh off their best performance of the season out scoring the Nets by a 149-146 count and now riding that momentum look very much like good bets vs a Portland side that continues to play without key cog CJ McCollum. WASHINGTON is 25-9 ATS L/34 in home games after a combined score of 245 points or more . Wizards are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Trailblazers are 0-13-1 ATS /0-14 SU as a road dog off a loss as a road dog in which Damian Lillard was not their high scorer. Trail Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Play on Washington to cover |
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02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets UNDER 242.5 | 120-124 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
The Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets possess a great deal of offensive explosiveness . But one team the Clippers owns the better defence (4th in NBA ppg allowed), and has the abilities to slow down the other side behind the 27th ranked pace , and limit their potent attack. The Nets will want to run and gun, but Im betting the Clippers will not be dragged into that type of game and instead play stoppers here tonight against a undisciplined side, which according to my projections sets up for a combined score that does not eclipse this total. LA CLIPPERS are 22-9 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. |
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02-01-21 | Grizzlies v. Spurs UNDER 220.5 | 133-102 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Memphis thanks to some very strong defensive play have won 7 games in a row and now on tired legs as they play their 2nd game in 2 nights, Im betting them and their opponents the Spurs will take part in a more subdued less aggressive offensive affair. MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.5 ppg. SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 UNDER in home games off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-39 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 30-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play on the under |
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02-01-21 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -3.5 | 133-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
The Memphis Grizzlies look for their seventh straight win Monday night when they face the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back set in San Antonio. However, Im betting their winning streak will come to an abrupt end here. MEMPHIS is 9-24 ATS after 6 or more consecutive wins since 1996. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 73-122 ATS L/24 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors. San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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02-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder +5 | 136-106 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
We have revenge on board here tonight by the home team, as they look to get some redemption for their NBA 7 game series loss to the Rockets in last seasons play offs.Note:The Thunder are 7-1 ATS with revenge in this series which includes going 7-1 ATS as a dog with revenge. The Thunder are also 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Rockets are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Rockets are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games as a road favorite.Rockets are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Rockets are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City. Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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02-01-21 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 218 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
NYK in their 20 games this season have seen a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored behind a 30th ranked last place pace and the worst ppg offense in the NBA also ranked 30th. To me this tells me they have had more control of the speed of the game than their opponents, and Im betting despite of the Bulls wanting to run they wont have their way and we see a lower scoring tilt then the lines-makers might expect. NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 201.1 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 18-6 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 34-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-01-21 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217 | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
Based on my projections this game has value on a under wager. (Late Steam) NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team aren30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-31-21 | Magic +4.5 v. Raptors | 102-115 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
The Magic have lost two in a row and 10 of their past 12 games, while the Raptors have lost three straight and four of their past six. Both sides are struggling and desperate for a win, which suggests a dog fight here, which makes taking points a viable option. ORLANDO is 20-8 ATS in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.Clifford is 24-10 ATS when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) as the coach of ORLANDO. NBA Road teams (ORLANDO) - pathetic team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or more on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 32-8 ATS L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on Orlando to cover |
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01-31-21 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 244.5 | 146-149 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Both these sides style of play obviously leans towards a high scoring affair, but the number according to my projections is just to high, and should be closer to 239 which gives us some obvious value to the under with an almost 2 possession divergence. The Nets have not gone over the total in 12 straight games with rest coming off a road win where they had 30+ assists.Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or kore of their shots are 30-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-31-21 | 76ers v. Pacers +2 | 119-110 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings the Indiana Pacers matchup well vs the Sixers.I know the Sixers have looked like real contenders , but from a trends perspective they have proven to be an inconsistent side based on recency bias as their 4-17 ATS record in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons: PHILADELPHIA is 6-20 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 8-21 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The Pacers are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 15 fouls. Play on Indiana Pacers to cover |
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01-31-21 | Jazz +1.5 v. Nuggets | 117-128 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Utah has reeled off 11 straight wins SU/ATS, and at 15-4 own the best record in the NBA. The Jazz will put that streak on the line when they visit the Nuggets for an early afternoon matchup on Sunday and Im betting they cover and will not be easily defeated. In other words lets ride the momentum of a streaking hot side. NBA team vs the money line (UTAH) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, a top-level team ( 75% or more ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 28-4 L/24 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The Warriors riding 31 points from Stephen Curry and 27 from Andrew Wiggins rolled to a 116-106 victory over Detroit when they met earlier this season, and now Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation. |
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01-30-21 | Rockets +1 v. Pelicans | 126-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
The Houston Rockets look stable after a rocky start to the season and deserve respect vs a uneven inconsistent New Orleans Pelicans . Houston has now won 4 straight and their 5th in a row Im betting comes tonight. |
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01-30-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 223 | 126-112 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
My projections give us value with an under wager here in this matchup which says this Total should be closer to 219 which makes this a full ;possession divergence. HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER after playing a home game this season. HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 216.2 ppg going on the board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW ORLEANS) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 38-14 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-29-21 | Nuggets -4 v. Spurs | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Denver Nuggets look to complete a perfect road trip as they take a five-game winning streak into San Antonio on Friday for their first matchup of the season with the surging Spurs. Im recommending we back the momentum of the Nuggets vs a San Antonio side my power ranking suggest they matchup well against. Note: San antonio is off a hard fought win last time out and have covered Note: SAN ANTONIO is 1-13 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. |
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01-29-21 | Nets v. Thunder UNDER 232.5 | 147-125 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
There is now way Oklahoma City can compete in a run and gun affair and that is why Im betting they do everything with their power to slow this game down, which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 UNDER when the total is 220 to 232.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. |
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01-29-21 | Kings +5.5 v. Raptors | 126-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
The Kings have covered in three straight games versus the Eastern Conference and according to my projections matchup well here and have are an advantage play. |
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01-28-21 | Warriors v. Suns -1 | 93-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
No rest for either team as Warriors visit Suns but Im betting the home side getting home cooking will be better prepared and ready to run just a little bit harder. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread are 75-17 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play on Phoenix |
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01-28-21 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 93-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Both sides are unrested and Im expecting a slower more deliberate game than many might expect. The Warriors have seen the L/6 meetings vs the Suns stay under the set total and have gone under in 8 of their L/9 as division road dogs and have also seen 6 of their L/7 away games stay under vs unrested foes . Mean while, the Suns have gone under 9 straight times as division chalk including 5 straight vs unrested division opposition. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 220.5 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 90-51 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-28-21 | Lakers -9 v. Pistons | 92-107 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Detroit is coming off a 122-107 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. Turnovers led to the Pistons' demise, as they committed 22 that the Cavaliers converted into 30 points and they are in trouble again tonight vs a Lakers side ready to rebound off a loss. DETROIT is 12-27 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. Casey is 8-19 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of DETROIT.
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01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4.5 | 101-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
The Blazers are expected to be without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic and this situation is not a good one for a side that was already playing crap D before these key injuries. |
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01-27-21 | Mavs +4 v. Jazz | 104-116 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Mavericks enter this game having gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Tonight against a Utah side that played last night and now tired legs the Mavs have an edge on this line. Note: The Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
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01-27-21 | Bucks -6 v. Raptors | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
The Raptors are according to my projections actually getting to much respect here vs a Milwaukee team that matches up well against them. I know the Raptors have played well ;lately, but past results do not guarantee future performance, which Im betting is the case here vs the Bucks. TORONTO is 2-11 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 45-15 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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01-27-21 | Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 214 | 107-122 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
01-27-21 | Kings +1.5 v. Magic | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Kings enter this game well rested and showing a 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Magic, are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Advantage Sacramento based on overall stats. |
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01-26-21 | Wizards +3.5 v. Rockets | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
When the Washington Wizards finally returned to action following a prolonged absence linked to league health and safety protocols, they looked disorganized and took it on the chin. However now with some practice and game time, this well rested side should be more than a handful for a Houston side that is currently being over rated after their big trade. Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. NBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 133-81 ATS L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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01-26-21 | Clippers v. Hawks -5 | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Clippers will be without Leonard, George, and Beverley which gives the Hawks a big edge especially with Trae Young now expected to suit up. The Hawks are 10-0 ATS coming off a loss as a dog where they were outscored in the paint by double digits. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season, after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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01-25-21 | Thunder +6 v. Blazers | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Portland has won six of its last eight games, while the Thunder are 0-3 on a five-game road trip that concludes Wednesday against the Phoenix Suns. Both teams look to performing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, but my power ratings suggest a closer game than the linemakers number indicates. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-11 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-1 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-7 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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01-25-21 | Celtics v. Bulls +5.5 | 119-103 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bulls are off a loss last time out vs the Lakers and are now ready for a bounce back performance vs the Celtics. The Bulls are 11-2 ATS L/13 as a dog. NBA Road favorites (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 75-42 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play on Chicago Bulls to cover |
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01-25-21 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 228 | 119-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Boston really shot the lights out last time out in a 141-103 win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers and now a natural offensive regression is in the cards. This in itself will help contribute to this tilts combined score staying on the low side of the total. Note: BOSTON is 29-11 UNDER after a huge blowout win by 30 or more since 1996 with a combined 191.3 ppg scored. |
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01-25-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Mavs | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Denver behind a top 5 offense has revenge on board for a previous loss to the Mavs, 124-117 at home 2 1/2 weeks ago and will now be primed to play hard tonight. The Nuggets 12-3-1 ATS as a dog with revenge in this series. With the Mavericks off back to back games with in-state rivals Houston and San Antonio Im expecting a deflationary situation for them here tonight. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 34-11 ATS L/5 seasons fkor a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Denver to cover |
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01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic +1 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
The Hornets made a big comeback last night and then finally won 107-104 on Gordon Hayward's tie breaking shot on a drive to the basket with less than a second remaining. I now expect a bounce back by the Magic, here in the rematch. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread are 74-17 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Orlando to cover |
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01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 213.5 | 108-117 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
The pace and matchup comparisons suggest a score that stays on the low side of the number as was the case last night in a 107-104 Charlotte win. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, with a losing record are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-25-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -2.5 | 114-129 | Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
Indiana Pacers first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren will have his team primed to gain a split with his former boss and Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse Monday night when the teams complete a two-game set at Indianapolis.The Raptors won the opener of the back-to-back games 107-102 this past Sunday . Play on the Pacers to cover |
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01-24-21 | Hawks +8.5 v. Bucks | 115-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Atlanta is one of the most under rated teams in the NBA behind Clint Capella who currently ranks No. 2 in the NBA in Rebounds Per Game, and future super star guard Trae Young (22.6 PPG) . We all know how powerful the Bucks can be but this line according to my projections is slightly bloated and offers value for advantage players. MILWAUKEE is 10-21 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 season. |
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01-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 214.5 | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. |
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01-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic -1 | 107-104 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
In a game that features two struggling sides, one of these teams is the lesser of two evils according to my power rankings . With that said Im betting on the Magic coming out of this with a victory especially with Fournier back int he lineup tonight. |
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01-24-21 | Thunder +13.5 v. Clippers | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
The Clippers will attempt to extend their season-high six-game winning streak in their second meeting with the Thunder in less than 48 hours. Im betting they might get it here, and obviously deserve to be favored, but the Thunder, according to my projections matchup well enough to get us the cover. OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 8-21 ATS after 4 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more since 1996. (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, with a losing record are 115-68 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate.
Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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01-24-21 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City is ranked 27th in ppg offense to this point in the season, and are now dealing with the fact they are not a offensive juggernaut and must learn to slow down teams in transition, which Im sure is the game plan tonight. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers have projected. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons OKLAHOMA CITY is 90-62 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-16 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - a very good team (7 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential) are 45-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% for conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-23-21 | Lakers v. Bulls +9 | 101-90 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
The Lakers are obviously the superior side here, but the Bulls have proven themselves resilient this season, especially when getting points. More of the same action on tape in this spot play. CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Take the points with the Chicago Bulls to cover |
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01-23-21 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 227 | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
After a hard fought win vs Milwaukee last time out by the Lakers, Im betting on a bit of an emotional letdown situation here vs Chicago tonight, which will see the Lakers start slower than usual, and that will in turn effect the early flow of this game and subsequently the combined score that will end up to be lower than the number expected by the linesmakers. LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. Vogel is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 210.6 ppg scored. |
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01-23-21 | Pelicans -8 v. Wolves | 110-120 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
With Karl-Anthony Towns out of the Minnesota lineup they just dont have much flow, and the chemistry looks bad as well , as is evident by 11 losses in 12 games including 4 straight defeats with 3 coming by DDs. I know New Orleans is not playing alot better, but they are a viable option vs this type of lower tier competition. |
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01-23-21 | Heat v. Nets UNDER 232 | 124-128 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
The Nets are having some defensive issues and I expect them to ficus on correcting some of their issues Saturday night when they host the shorthanded Miami Heat. The Heat will be effected by a lack of cohesiveness because of their lack of a full compliment of players, This Im betting effect the score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Spoelstra is 135-103 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 201.1 ppg . |
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01-23-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6.5 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Detroit has for the most part been competitive this season despite of their ugly record. QUOTE: "We're finding ways to get back into it, to get ourselves in a position to win," Casey said. "We're due. We're due to have some good luck." END QUOTE Im betting Philadelphia may overlook this opponent giving us value on the line. PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.NBA Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 82-57 L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (DETROIT) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, playing on back-to-back days are 65-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.Play on Detroit to cover |
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01-22-21 | Thunder +13 v. Clippers | 106-120 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
The Thunder have been in a funk lately and desperate to get back into a winning groove. I know that wont come easily vs the Clippers, but with this being the home sides 4th game in 4 nights and on tired legs the Thunder have an edge on this line . There are positives with supporting the Thunder as a bettor as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days rest. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-7 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, with a losing record are 115-67 ATS L/5 years for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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01-22-21 | Nuggets v. Suns -2 | 130-126 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Nuggets Malone said he would like to give Murray and Jokic some time off, but with the upcoming schedule and the importance of the games it is difficult to find time. QUOTE: "Five games in (eight) days, it's really hard to do that," Malone said. END QUOTE: The key duo are tired. Advantage Phoenix . DENVER is 7-21 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Malone is 0-8 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of DENVER. |
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01-22-21 | Mavs v. Spurs UNDER 222.5 | 122-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mavs enter this game ranked 6th in ppg allowed defence, and 22nd in offensive output, behind the 22nd ranked pace. Needless to say they are playing a deliberate conservative style of hoops, that has coincidently resulted in unders cashing for bettors in 9 of their L/12 trips to the hardwood, including going Under is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Meanwhile, San Antonio is ranked. middle of the pack, ranking 17th in offensive output and 11th in defensive rating . Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. The Spurs have also been in a under groove going 5-1 to the low side of the number L/6 trips to the court. Considering both teams current form, Ill bet and recommend we take a lower scoring stance here.Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play UNDER |
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01-22-21 | Celtics +5 v. 76ers | 110-122 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
The Sixers were swept by the Celtics in the first round of last season's playoffs in the Orlando bubble. Embiid hasn't forgotten the feeling or so the media story spin is putting it. Now Embiid thanks to off season conditioning is now a god among men according to the media, and will slice through a group that dominated them last season. Im not buying. it, and now instead will take a contrarian stance, and take the points with Boston. BOSTON is 20-8 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. |
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01-22-21 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 222 | 110-122 | Win | 101 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
HC Nurse said his team's defense was at its worst of the season "times three" in the game and Im betting things dont get better here tonight in a game that is more wide open than the pundits might expect.
Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 overall.
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01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | 118-129 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
analysis to follow thank you for your patience Van Gundy is 79-52 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996. NBA team (UTAH) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 17-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. New Orleans to cover |
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01-21-21 | Lakers +2 v. Bucks | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
In a game in fron of no fans, Im betting on the better side pulling off the win in a West vs East super matchup. As good as Giannis Antetokounmpo is , and as much as he brags about his obvious prowess, he has yet to put his money where his mouth is. Meanwhile, LeBron James and company are the real deal, and until the Greek Freak and step up in big games, Ill be fading him in this type of line. |
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01-20-21 | Kings +10.5 v. Clippers | 96-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
I know the Kings have not played inspirational basketball for a while now, but they still matchup well enough vs the Clippers to cover a line that is partly based on recency bias and brand acceptability. SACRAMENTO is 11-2 ATS in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons
Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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01-20-21 | Kings v. Clippers UNDER 232 | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
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01-20-21 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 217 | 97-96 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Over is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 8-1-1 in Magic last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Over is 7-1-1 in Magic last 9 games as a road favorite. The Timberwolves are 14-0 OVER L/14 at home after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers last game with every game in the subset eclipsing this total with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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01-20-21 | Pistons +5 v. Hawks | 115-123 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Pistons have been playing very hard and are expected to have most of their regular starters tonight vs Atlanta . It must be noted that 6 of 9 Pistons defeats have been within 5 points in the last 5 minutes of play.ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16 or more turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 in Atlanta. Play on Detroit Pistons to cover |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans +6 v. Jazz | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
The Jazz may have won 5 straight but there are still some hiccups, and they far from perfect, especially at home where they have gone just 2-2 SU . Pelicans still jelling but I like their chances here tonight to get us the cover. Jazz are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 home games. Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Jazz are 0-9 ATS /1-8 SU as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses the only win came by just 3 points. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 34-13 ATS vL/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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01-18-21 | Rockets +1 v. Bulls | 120-125 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Chicago was really struggling having lost 4 straight games before last nights road victory vs the Dallas Mavericks, and are fade material here on tired legs despite of Houstons changes of late. The Rockets according to my matchup power rankings are a viable bet in this spot. Bulls are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.Bulls are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 Monday games.Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 3-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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01-18-21 | Rockets v. Bulls UNDER 226.5 | 120-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored and enter this game on a current 8 game streak of unders. Rinse and repeat here despite of a partially revamped new lineup. |
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01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 238.5 | 123-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Yes, both these sides can light it up , but according to my Totals projection , the number should be closer to 234 , so with a full possession plus avaialble Im recommedning we take an under stance on a public line. Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.
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01-18-21 | Suns -3 v. Grizzlies | 104-108 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, but Im betting that with this being their 4th game in less than a week, they will be at a disadvantage vs a Suns side that has the ability to make them work hard here, which makes the young men from Memphis susceptible to a 2nd half meltdown. Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.Suns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. MEMPHIS is 4-17 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 39-76 L/24 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Phoenix Suns to cover |
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01-18-21 | Spurs -1.5 v. Blazers | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
HC Popovich has as way of having his teams ready to play top teir opponents, and tonight Im betting the Spurs will primed for the road win vs Portland. Popovich is 267-221 ATS (+23.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of SAN ANTONIO. Stotts is 69-92 ATS against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PORTLAND PORTLAND is 8-18 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 68-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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01-18-21 | Wolves +8 v. Hawks | 97-108 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Hawks despite of some star talent in their lineup are not a cohesive team, and should not garner this much respect not even against the struggling Timberwolves. Note: Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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01-18-21 | Magic -2 v. Knicks | 84-91 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
The New York Knicks delivered a huge victory that felt like it was years in the making on Sunday when they routed the Boston Celtics. But now after playing all out and now in a letdown state and on tired legs as they are on back to back tilts, Im expecting the Magic come out of this with a win. ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 25-14 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. |
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01-17-21 | Pacers +6 v. Clippers | 96-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
This is the last game of the Pacers 4 game west coast road trip which has seen them go 2-1 so far, and because of the lack of entetainment venues open because of covid , Im sure they are not that tired as a team, as rest and relaxation are key to every day life in the NBA right now . The Pacers are also according to my projections a much higher rating side than the linesmakers are giving them credit for here this evening in LA vs the Clippers.Meanwhile, the Clips are off a tilt where they shot the lights out in a 138-100 win vs the Kings, and could easily see a reversion to the mean here offensively, against one of the better defences in the league. Lue is 10-25 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more in all games he has coached in his career. Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. |