Two banged up teams the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets go head to head tonight in the Mile High City. The Spurs after playing last night in Utah wont; have the legs to run and gun tonight, and with key offensive weapons Leonard and Aldridge sidelined don't have as much scoring punch as usual.   Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets , continue to play without Paul Milsap, and have a bevy of walking wounded that are playing at less than 100%, and welcome the all star break that is on the horizon. This above combination of circumstances I'm betting will result in a much lower combined score than the lines-makers expect.

SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 UNDER   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 200.6 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.2 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 21-7 UNDER   when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season of 194.7 ppg scored and 13-2 UNDER  in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season with a combined average of 191.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 50-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Cleveland has won three consecutive games, scoring 121 or more points in each and now the pundits are all piling back on to the bandwagon. I'm a believer in the Cavaliers ability to continue their upward momentum, as well over the long haul, but I'm betting this is a bad spot for them. Meanwhile, Oklahoma city is expected to have both Russell Westrook and Carmelo Anthony  back in the lineup tonight, after both sat two games with a ankle injury. Both these top tier players presence  , and  the positive  energy involved with taking on a championship contender will have the Thunder ready to perform in  what is a very tough venue for visitors to play in . Oklahoma City has won the L/2 meetings in this series home and away.

CLEVELAND is 8-22 ATS  L/30 revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points. CLEVELAND is 16-34 ATS  L/50 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEVELAND is 4-18 ATS  L/22 in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS  L/18 in non-conference games this season.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are just 13-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

 The last time these teams played  they took part in  wild 148-124 shootout, that saw the Thunder shoot 58%+ FG, and the Cavs 51%.. However, it  seems both coaches were not happy with their own defenses, especially the Cavs Lue, and now I expect he makes sure his team is ready to be more physical, and more defensively responsible in transition, which I'm betting makes this a slower game than many expect.

CLEVELAND in their L/21  in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more have seen a combined average score of 217.2 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-8 L/29 UNDER  against Central division opponents with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-8 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road win are 42-14 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 755 conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.7 ppg.

Play UNDER

We all now how explosive Houston's offense is, but many do not notice that they are defensively efficient , as they rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  ie Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. Recently the Rockets have been tough on opposing offenses holding 3 of their L/6 opponents to 97 points or less. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of taking part in a lot of higher scoring affairs this season, remarkably owns the 23rd ranked pace, and tonight, I expect they will be even more deliberate in their approach, vs a powerful offense. With that said, and according to both teams expected style of play, and road vs home scenarios I'm betting on a total score that does not eclipse this total.

 Rockets are 5-0-1 UNDER  last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-3-1 in Rockets last 14 road games.Under is 34-15-2 in Rockets last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season and 7-0 on the road with a combined average score of the away games clicking in at 206.2 ppg. HC' DAntoni is 25-4 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average score  of 213.9 ppg on the board.  HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER   in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 32-11 UNDER  L/43 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or over ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

San Antonio is banged up with some key injuries but still have enough talent to put some points on the board here and keep track with the red hot Utah Jazz a team that is averaging 117.6 ppg  in offense over the L/7 games during their 9 game win streak. Considering the Jazz played last night I doubt they will be prepared to play a lot of defense here and I'm anticipating a much more wide open game because of this. With that said, I'm recommending we take an over stance in this spot.

UTAH is 21-7 OVER  L/28 against Southwest division opponents with a combined average of 204.5 ppg on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER L/19 with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored  in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points.

NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on back-to-back days are 37-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 201 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

The Knicks, who lost All-Star center/forward Kristaps Porzingis for the season to a torn left ACL last week are now looked upon as a downtrodden group that does not deserve any respect. While that maybe partially true, thanks to their overall horrid W/L record,  this team still has some fight left in them as players look to solidify their standing on the team and future paydays. They always say pro sports is all about the money,  and it is, so the Knicks wont stop playing hard, as very few of them on this team have any guarantees in this league going forward. The Knicks are not just going to lye down and take a nap, but instead I expect will fight even harder. Tonight, I'm betting their being under rated vs a 76ers side that despite of being a lot better than in previous seasons, is still a side that is young, with consistency  still  being a problem with these talented kids. . So needless to say  Its a hard stretch for me to suddenly see them listed as 12 plus point favs, against anyone in the NBA even here at home .I know  the Knicks played last night and the  Sixer's and their fans have recently fed off the energy associated with the  Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but that's now fading and when you put out that much emotional energy its sometimes hard to keep playing at a high level, especially against a beat up team like the Knicks that they are probably overlooking. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance here and take the dogs to cover on a slightly bloated line.

76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

The 5 meetings in this series have seen 3 games decided by 1 point , one game by 3 , and their most recent game by 7 points.

PHILADELPHIA is 4-18 ATS L/22 in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots .NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS L/31 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Houston enters this game against visiting Dallas having won its seventh straight game with a 130-104 blowout of the Denver Nuggets on Friday. But its interesting to note the Rockets are just 2-11 ATS  L/13 in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Rockets also have a tendency of playing down to their opponents, and are just  0-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.HOUSTON is also 0-8 ATS  as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and are slightly over valued considering how they seem to do just enough to get victories vs teams likes this as they save their energy  for bigger fish. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of having a down season, are still capable of being competitive despite of playing last night ( beat LAL 130-123) and are my recommendation getting points in this spot Note:. Mavericks have covered 4 of their L/5 in back to backs, and  are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Rockets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

DALLAS is 14-6 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a loss by 10 points or more are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

The Sacramento Kings are a young team, but they have a great deal of energy and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this DD number as road dogs here in Minnesota tonight. The Kings have recently pulled off upsets on the road against the Heat and Pelicans and have a never say die attitude. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is  just 7-17 ATS   when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign and 12-23 ATS  when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).

Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

I know that the San Antonio Spurs are a little banged up with key cog Leonard out of the lineup , however,  I'm betting their still viable underdogs here on a line that according to my own projections is a little bloated,  thanks to the defending champion Golden State Warriors being a public team. The Warriors are just 21-31-2 ATS this season, and have continually failed to produce covers for their backers, thanks to the exaggerated lines attached to their tilts. I know they clobbered the Spurs earlier this season on the road by a 112-92 mark, but lately the champs have looked a little tired and maybe just floating into the all star break as they look preserve energy for the stretch run. Meanwhile, Popovich and company are a group looking for revenge here, and probably feel a little disrespected by being pegged DD dogs. ( By the way despite of what NBA players and coaches say they do take the occasional  peak a vegas lines)

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS  L/11  in road games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots . Golden State is 4-16 ATS facing teams with same season revenge for a 20 point or more loss.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a  defense  allowing  (102 PPG or more ) are 29-8 ATS L5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-16 L/5 seasons, for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover

The Orlando Magic are  playing some very good basketball at the moment and enter this game against the Milwaukee Bucks with  three straight wins. What is even more important as far as we are concerned is the Magic's ability to be very competitive as they have covered 13 of their L/15 overall.  It took some time but this team is jelling behind a patient coaching staff, and management that has not been hard on this young group. The Magic  are playing well with the duo D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack as their primary point guards after Elfrid Payton was traded to Phoenix at the deadline.  With Augustin as a starter  the Magic have flourished going 6-2 SU with him in the starting lineup. During a current 6-5 11 game run the Magic are averaging 107.6 points on 48 percent shooting while allowing 105.4 points and dangerous opponents vs a tired Milwaukee team that looked exhausted last night in a physical loss to the Heat (91-85), and will have very little left in the tank in this spot. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

MILWAUKEE is 9-19 ATS  L/28 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando and 1-4 ATS L/5 meetings overall.

Play on Orlando to cover

The Utah Jazz are playing some very good basketball at the moment,  having won 7 straight and despite of making a couple of trades at the deadline, are still looking like a viable side to back in this spot vs visiting Charlotte. Yesterday, the Jazz dumped one of their top scoring guards Hood, for an equally gifted  Jae Crowder from Cleveland, a two way player who fits in perfectly into their hard nosed defensive system. I'm expecting the Jazz not to skip a beat. Meanwhile, Charlotte, has lost two straight, and are off a exhausting OT tilt vs Portland last night, and now going in to the thin air of Salt Lake City should have problems competing as this game progresses, making them fade material in this spot.

UTAH is 10-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.CHARLOTTE is 6-16 ATS (as an underdog this season.UTAH is 13-5 ATS  L/18 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

NBA Home teams (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah  Jazz to cover

As this season has progressed I have gained a lot of respect for the Miami Heat, and their work ethic behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. With newly acquired Dwayne Wade coming home to finish his career after getting traded yesterday, and some desperation after a 5 game losing streak,  I'm expecting a little extra jump in the legs of this Heat team, and for and from them to come out of this with a victory vs the  Giannis "Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and company.

Note: Milwaukee is short handed .. G Delavedova  and  G Malcolm Brogdon (torn left quad) are out with injuries.

MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record MIAMI is 17-8 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-21 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 57-99 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Houston has been in top form almost all season, and despite of a current 6 game win streak enter this game a little banged up with starting forward Ryan Anderson (ankle) and reserve guard Eric Gordon (back) on the bench along with key starter Ariza and will be  short handed here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, winners of three straight and six of eight, are also currently in good form, and out to looking to avenge a loss to Houston earlier this season. Considering the Rockets situation and  heavy schedule of late, I'm making a contrarian move here and backing Denver to cover the number in a spot play.

DENVER is 11-3 ATS L/14  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. HOUSTON is 5-18 ATS L/23 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23or more assists/game .HOUSTON is 8-18 ATS  L/26 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots.

NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate .

Play on Denver to cover

The Dallas Mavericks visit a tired looking  Golden State Warriors team on Thursday night that has lost 3 of their L/4 overall. The last time the Mavs came to town  the Warriors took a  112-97 win and I'm expecting a similar output tonight. Note: Dallas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 while, the Dubs have gone under in 3 straight tilts.

GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER  L/10 when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored.DALLAS is 15-7 UNDER   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg going on the board. DALLAS is 21-11 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 19-7 UNDER  L/26 after 3 or more consecutive unders dating back to last season with the combined average score of 215.3 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or better) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 27-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more  of their free throws, in February games are 43-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

 Portland as the season has progressed has reverted back to their old run and gun style of play and has improved its offensive production now ranking 15th in the NBA in offensive rating (105.2). The Blazers' defense has  also gotten progressively worse and after being in the top 10 for a long time  and are now  ranked 11th at 104.9. ppg. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 18th in points allowed, and 14th in offense, with a combined average of 212.8 ppg scored. (106.4 ppg in both categories). From  matchup perspective and a projections system I have used for 14 years,  I'm expecting both sides to play a faster paced game then usual, and for the this combined score to eclipse the number.

My projection has both sides scoring more than 105 points each- Note: PORTLAND is 20-0 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board.CHARLOTTE is 49-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game with a combined average of 230.3 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER L/34 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average score of 226.4 ppg clicking in on the board. PORTLAND is 12-2 OVER L/14  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots with a combined average score of 223.3 ppg being registered.

Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons

HC Stotts is 8-0 OVER L/8 vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 43-14 OVER L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The Washington Wizards despite of not having All-Star John Wall  in the lineup conjured up a     five-game winning streak before abruptly having it end in their last trip to the hardwood. The victorious run included wins vs Oklahoma City  and  Toronto.  Meanwhile, their opponents the Boston Celtics also had their ,  four game win streak ended when they were beaten up on by Toronto last time out  111-91  thud. Now these teams will both be looking to get back on track. Both according to my power rankings are pretty evenly matched, with home court advantage being the difference maker and their ability to outduel their opponents via top tier  ball movement and balanced scoring .

WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last few  seasons. Washington has won 5 of the L/7 meetings at home in this series SU. Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more are 8-54 SU L/21 seasons for a87% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

The Knicks enter this game  having lost four games in a row and seven of their last nine and  are obviously in bad form, and to make matters worse they have to play without a key offensive cog because of an injury to Porzingis  and also to guard Ron Baker (right shoulder surgery) and center Enes Kanter (oral surgery). If Tim Hardaway Jr. plays for NYK he has been fairly unproductive and rusty and won't help their offensive cause much. This will of course effect the Knicks offensive flow tonight vs one of the leagues top teams the Toronto Raptors , which in turn will effect the total combined score of this tilt in downward fashion. The Knicks know they have to find a way to slow this game down and make it physical, and that's what I'm betting they will do which will aid us in cashing an under bet here. The Four most recent meetings in this series have all not eclipsed this Total.

Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 overall.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.

TORONTO is 16-7 UNDER   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored. TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER   after a division game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors .

Play UNDER

Orlando is play very good basketball at the moment, winning 3 of their L/4 games and are off beating the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.Since a 130-113 defeat  at Washington, the Magic are at .500 ( 5-5)  in their last 10 games. Four of the losses during that run are by single digits and four victories came  against teams with above.500 records Meanwhile. Atlanta has also won 2 straight, but my own power rankings suggest the Magic have the edge on their own home court. With that said, I am recommending we take the points in this spot.

Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Hawks are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Hawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 53-96 L/21 seasons for a 65% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

It's official the lines-makers have finally thrown in the towel on the Cleveland Cavaliers after the Cavs completely embarrassed themselves in a  116-88 loss  to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday. Absolutely pitiful is the best two words I can use to describe that effort . It truly sickening to watch a talented team like this implode, which seems to be the case as HC Tyronn Lue can't seem to stomach watching this calamity unfold, and  has left the last two games at some point because of undisclosed illness. Despite of that last nasty effort, I'm still grasping on to my power rankings that suggest we have a live home dog here with what still must be considered a championship calibre team. With pride on the line, and revenge on board for a Cleveland's loss to the  Wolves on Jan. 8, in  Minnesota via a ugly 127-99 beating I'm actually going to recommend we take the points here. I know this is a contrarian viewpoint, but my convictions about this team, are still at least for now solid . With the Cavs showcasing a 19-7 SU record at home this season, I'm betting they dig deep here in play an inspired game in front of their fans , and get us the cover. QUOTE: "Just got to keep pushing," said LeBron James, who scored only 10 points the last time the Cavs played Minnesota. "Stay positive, keep pushing. Try to get better. That's where it's at for me. We've got another opportunity tomorrow playing against a very good team that beat us up pretty good in Minnesota before. We look forward to the challenge. We've got to come out with the right game plan, we've got to come out with a sense of urgency and we've got to play the game the right way and try to sustain some good basketball for 48 minutes." END QUOTE:

Minnesota has lost 4 of their L/7 overall, and  is 7-17 ATS  L/24  in road games in non-conference games .Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. are 33-9 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover

These two teams the Jazz and Grizzlies are currently playing at the opposite ends of the proverbial performance spectrum of late, with Utah on a 6 game win streak while the Grizzlies are on 4 game losing streak. Despite of the their current discrepancies   ,  their is value backing the home dog on what is a slightly bloated number. I know the Grizzlies played last night, but they did not exert much energy, in a lifeless loss to Atlanta, and recently have shown resiliency and good conditioning as they are 4-0 ATS L/4 back to backs, and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and  6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 7-2-1 ATS L/10 at home overall. Meanwhile the Jazz are Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. This ticket is not based on which side is better at the moment, but is based on the mathematics associated with spread betting, and according to my numbers and power rankings we  have value taking points.

Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA teams like  (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are just 40-77 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

The Rockets are off a win in Brooklyn last night by a  123-113 count  and now prepare to visit the Miami Heat on Wednesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena . The Rockets now  on tired legs  just won't have as much energy to run and gun as they usually do . Add to that they will play a very physical defensive side, lead by Hassan Whiteside,  that are  well equipped to slow the Rockets  down. With that said, I won't be surprised if the visitors  produce below their season offensive average in this spot.  On the flipside,  the Heat ranked 28th in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency,   and off a couple of dubious lackluster defensive  performances, will  be primed to bounce back and play solid D, in a building where they have held 3 of their L/4 opponents to 91 point or less. Houston must also not be underestimated in their ability to play solid D, as they have held 5 of their L/10 opponents to 99 or less points and rank 9th in the league in defensive rating. The above combinations bode well for this score staying on the low side of the Total.  

Note: Miami in 7 of their L/15 overall have seen them and their opponents fail to eclipse the 99 point plateau in a game. MIAMI is 8-0 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 193.2 ppg scored. The last two meetings between these teams here in Miami have remained on the low side of the number.

Under is 10-2 in Rockets last 12 overall.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 road games.Under is 35-15-2 in Rockets last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 40-11 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Both the Memphis Grizzlies and their hosts the Atlanta Hawks have been highly inconsistent this season, with neither probably inspiring many bettors to back them. But in a game involving two bottom feeders, one side the ( Grizzlies) are the lesser of two evils according to my power rankings and head to head matchup analysis. When these teams played   on Dec. 15.  the Grizzlies defeated the Hawks  96-94 in Memphis , and once again look like a viable side to back in this spot.

ATLANTA is 1-13 ATS  L/14  in home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread dating back to last season.

Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover

The Knicks enter this game frustrated and embarrassed after blowing what looked like a sure win last time out, as they gave up a 5 point lead with under 2 min lefts  and lost to Atlanta . Now completely dejected and with nothing to lose, I expect a all out effort from a side looking to get some pride back. Key Trend: Knicks are 5-0 ATS l/5 after a loss. QUOTE: "I can't even process that we lost," Knicks leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis told reporters after the game. "I can't believe it. It was our game. It was 100 percent our game. Stuff happened quick, and boom, it was over. ... We're just not there yet as a team. We keep losing these games." END QUOTE: I know the Knicks don't inspire many bettors, but considering their current mood, and  the fact they actually matchup well vs the Bucks  actually makes them  decent options in this spot. Note:  When these teams played last week the Bucks squeaked out a 92-90  vs the Knicks at home , but now with this game now in NYC could get easily get  hi jacked in MSG in the rematch tonight. (  The Knicks are outrebounding Bucks this season, 44.4 to 39.0, and the Bucks rank  19th in the NBA in points per game (104.7) and 11th in points allowed (104.9). The Knicks are right behind the Bucks in both categories ranking  20th in points per game (104.1) and 13th in points allowed at 105.5. Milwaukee has a SRS of - 0.28 vs NYK -1.69 .

Bucks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Underdog is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings and Bucks have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 visits to NY to play the Knicks.

Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo left last game, is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs New York ( Foot ) but is still operating at  less than 100% tonight.

NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS  L/20 after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS  L/48 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games .

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more are  55-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Two cellar dwellers go head to head tonight in the NBA. The Bulls  are  near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Kings are at the bottom  of the Western Conference. But according to my power rankings one side is the lesser of two evils and that is the Chicago Bulls, a hoops franchise that despite of rebuilding has played well for long stretch's this season and have gained my respect. I know their leading scorer(Mirotic)  was traded to the Pelicans, in exchange for forward Omer Asik and guard Jameer Nelson, but with key cog Markkanen back in the lineup after a week off (personal) they  will have fresh legs in the lineup and will be  dangerous underdogs.    With that said,  the Kings have not won on their own home floor since a 106-98 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Jan. 6 and are weak chalk here again tonight .

Chicago has won 4 of their L/5 visits to Sacramento and are 2-0 here in recent meetings.

SACRAMENTO is 4-14 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHICAGO is 14-5 ATS  L/19  versus struggling foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season.CHICAGO is 18-9 ATS   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors, and NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are a bankroll expanding 70-25 ATS L/21 seasons for a long term 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

The Jazz have won five in a row, including their last four road games, and they upset the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night 120-111 and are currently operating at a top level of performance. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have lost three of four games since star center DeMarcus Cousins suffered a season-ending left Achilles tear and are now struggling to find cohesiveness as they adjust to his absence. From a matchup perspective in both sides current for the Jazz have the edge.The Jazz have won four of the last five against New Orleans and get the nod again as road pups.

Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Orleans.

UTAH is 9-1 ATS  L/10 after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. UTAH is 15-4 ATS  L/19 in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS  L/69 as a home favorite. Pelicans HC Gentry is 9-24 favorite ATS  L/33 where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games in 2 straight games .  Snyder is 21-9 ATS   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home in his career.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, second half of the season are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

Utah is suddenly playing top tier hoops again as is evident by 5 straight wins. Their current top form must be attributed to their ability to play a very strong brand of defensive basketball that has resulted in allowing 4 of their L/5 opponents to score less than 99 points. This type of D, has been a mainstay of Jazz basketball for a while, and their now in a groove and closely following their regiment.  I know that the Pelicans have continued to play fairly high scoring games, despite of losing DeMarcus Cousns to an injury, but  their flow I'm betting will be inhibited tonight by a side that knows exactly how to slow opponents down, behind a 25th ranked pace and the 4th best D in the league.

Utah HC Snyder is 28-15 UNDER L/43   versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 194.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washington enters this game starting to shore up their defensive play and have held 3 of their L/6 opponents under the 98 point mark and overall  rank in the upper half of the NBA defensive numbers . Meanwhile, Indiana ha held 8 of their L/16 opponents to  99 points or less behind the 17th ranked pace. With that said, and considering my own power ranking matchup projections the lines-makers are slightly over weighted on the Total and thus I'm betting we have value with an under wager in this spot.

Indiana has gone under 17 of their L/28 home games this season. Washington has gone under in 17 of their 26 road games during this campaign. The combined average score of Wizards road games clicks in at a combined average of 210 ppg, while Indiana's home games have seen a combined average of 211.3 ppg. The two most recent games these teams have played here in Indiana have not eclipsed this total, and I'm once again betting on this Number not being breached.

WASHINGTON is 16-7 UNDER  L/23 after a game where they covered the spread this season with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored. r

INDIANA is 25-9 UNDER  L/34  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average 205.3 ppg scored. INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 19-8 UNDER L/27 at home when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 208 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 55-20 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Portland has been playing some highly competitive hoops of late and have won 7 of their L/9 games and have only failed to cover 1 of their L/8 games overall. The Trail Blazers saw their four-game winning streak end abruptly last time out in a 130-105 loss at Toronto on Friday, but will now be ready to bounce back in a big way vs a Celtics side playing without injured Kyrie Irving. The Blazers have scored 100 points in 17 straight games, and matchup well here vs a side has suddenly become defensively deficient of late holding only 2 of their L/10 opponents to under 100 points.

The road team won both meetings last season and I expect another cover here by the visitors.


PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS L/9 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PORTLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.BOSTON is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games.BOSTON is 18-34 ATS L/52 in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots.


Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

New Orleans after losing DeMarcus Cousins for the seasons with a Achilles injury are now  Short-handed going in to this tilt against the Wolves . The Pelicans  did manage to shore up their bench by acquiring Forward Nikola Mirotic from the Bulls and  is expected to make his debut for New Orleans tonight. But his presence I'm betting slows down the offensive flow of the Pelicans that they  had with Anthony and Cousins patrolling the hardwood. From my own projections which considers the new personnel  I'm estimating that the Pelicans will score in the 100 point range , and attempt between 81 and 87 shots, which has resulted in them combining with their opponents to average 206.8 ppg in the recent past. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches, have shown that they  have the flashes of having the  ability to play solid defense as well,  behind the 24th ranked pace in the league, which has resulted in them going under in 4 straight games, allowing two of their L/4 opponents to 97 and 87 points respectively. The combination of Minnesota's concerted focus on playing better  D, and the Pelicans getting acclimated to playing without key cogs and new pieces will culminate in tilt that stays under the total.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 UNDER  L/10  in road games versus  teams -  allowing an overall shooting pct defense of  46% or worse - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign, with the combined average score of 207.9 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER  in road games off an upset win as a road underdog  with a combined average of 199.6 ppg scored. ( The Pelicans upset Thunder 114-110 L/time out) MINNESOTA is 13-3 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 OVER L/21 seasons, for a 87% conversion rate for bettors ( with a combined average of 210.6 ppg going on the board).

 Play UNDER

Denver enters this game having played three straight grueling games, with their last game resulting in a last second 127-124 buzzer beater win vs Oklahoma City. Now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state, I'm betting they have problems dealing with a Golden State team that they may meet in the first round of the play offs. The Warriors also aware of the possible post season implications, will now take the  time I'm betting to deliver a message and knock down a fragile Nuggets group still dealing with confidence issues, after making a habit of squandering leads this season, including the win they took last time out. There is also a low possibility  , that the Warriors will not be prepared to play here tonight, as Denver has played them tough on occasion in the past including shocking them by 96-81 back on Dec 3 at home. With that said, I'm also betting the Warriors would love to shovel out some pay back here tonight and leave this building  and their fans in a shambles via  smack down performance.

 Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.Road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.Warriors are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Denver.

Golden States SRS - is 8.21 vs Denver SRS - 0.50 .( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.)

GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS  L/19  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-2 ATS L/21 seasons for a 92% conversion rare  winning SU by an average of 11.1 pgg.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

When we think of  the Houston Rockets  we get the image of a run and gun offensive team that plays with one way reckless abandon. While their are times when they do look like this kind of side, overall this is not a true picture of what they have been trying to achieve or the way they play . Overall the Rockets are ranked 10th in the league in defensive efficiency, and on the road of late have held 5 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points or less. Overall thanks to a decent defensive posture they have also seen 8 of their L/10 games remain on the low side of the number. On the road this season the Rockets have seen a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. Now we enter this game against a Cleveland team, playing for the most part aggressive offensive ball  while looking like pylons on defense. The Cavs did however, come out last time out, and show us some metal in a 91-89 win vs Miami, and now on a couple of days rest, should be well prepared to use that winning formula for this  top tier  non conference showdown in a game I have pegged at staying under the slightly bloated  public total.

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 206.2 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 23-11 UNDER L/34  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. CLEVELAND  in their L/42  versus   teams - allowing 106+ points/game have seen an average of 224.7 ppg scored.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 201.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Last night  Pacers came back from an 18-point first-half deficit to make the game tight, but ended up losing 133-126 to the Charlotte Hornets. What I took from that game, was how much of a flow the Pacers can get into when their running and gunning and how well they matchup vs a side the  76ers. With that said, I'm betting on the well conditioned PACERS continuing their flow vs a Philadelphia 76ers side  that has lost 4 of their L/5 road games SU  and also played last night .76ers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on no  rest.  Also add to that Indiana will have the added motivation, vs a Sixers side that took them out, by a 121-110 count back in November in Philly and you have a quality side situation to sink our teeth into.

76ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Chalk is 8-2 ATS L/10 meetings in this series.

INDIANA is 27-13 ATS  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Indiana has won 3 straight at home in this series.PHILADELPHIA is 5-17 ATS L/22 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), poor ball handling team (16.5 TO's or more ) against a good ball handling team ( 14.5 TO's or less) are 9-31 SU L/21 seasons for a go against conversion  rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on the Pacers to cover

The last time these teams met, the Lakers took out the Nets by a  124-112 win  as former  Net  Lopez scored a season-high 34 points on 13 of 23 from the field and made six 3-pointers. From a matchup perspective I feel the Lakers once again have a viable opportunity to turn the trick again. It must be noted that Brooklyn  could easily also be in a letdown scenario here , after back to back  grueling division games, including an upset of the 76ers ast time out . BROOKLYN has crashed and burned consistently in the past after these type of affairs  as is  evident by their 1-12 ATS L/13 record in home games after 2 consecutive division games .

Lakers are 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Brooklyn

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. are 69-25 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 23-3 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover

The Pacers are coming off a 3-0 homestand that included a 105-96 victory over the Hornets on Monday night but despite of that momentum, this is a bad spot for them according to my reference power rankings and system vs system matchup projections. The home team also has the  added edge factored in for Coach Nate McMillan  not being behind the bench tonight for the Pacers because of  personal reasons.  The Hornets also have motivation on their side as they look to get revenge for a earlier loss to the Pacers this season. Actually in that loss the Hornets looked like the better team, when they pushed Dwight Howard to the front of their offensive attack and focused on him getting the ball. They floundered in the second half however, when they got away from that game plan and lost . But now tonight with the Pacers weaknesses exposed look for Howard once again be a focal and point and eventual catalyst in what I am betting will be  a Hornets win and cover .

Pacers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte.Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

 NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher 9-20 SU for go against 69% conversion rate for bettors over the last 5 seasons losing by an average of 4.4 ppg .

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are 60-18 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.1 ppg.

Play on Charlotte to cover

The Thunder have possibly put it all together as they have been surging of late. I'm not completely sold on their sudden reversal in fortunes just  yet, despite of the prognosticators and media shoveling their love for them down our proverbial throats. Hey guys, I'm not dumping on the  Thunder, because the big three of Westbrook, Melo, and George are true big times talents, I'm just throwing caution to the wind as their a lot of basketball to played this season, before a definite stance can be taken and in my opinion the jury is still out.  In their last trip to the hardwood Oklahoma City had  a 8 game win streak abruptly ended against Washington despite of the Wizards playing without John Wall, and in the recent past have proven themselves unreliable and inconsistent despite of their talent levels. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance, and back the young but talented Denver Nuggets to grab us some cash in the Mile High city tonight. It must be also noted that Oklahoma City has crashed and burned consistently after being cash cows for their backers for extended periods, as this trend indicates: OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-12 ATS   in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread . The Thunder have also not been able to take advantage of struggling defenses: OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-16 ATS  L/22 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is also just  2-10 ATS  vs. division opponents this season. Thunder are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Northwest.Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest

NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) are 25-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Injury update: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic (ankle) is probable Thursday vs Oklahoma City.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Philadelphia after a hot streak that saw them notch wins in 10 of 13 games,  have now lost back to back games including a  10-point loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday and a 12-point smack down at Milwaukee on Monday. I watched highlights from those game , and some shot clips, and the 76ers looked exhausted and are fade material here in their current form, even against a struggling side like Brooklyn, especially laying this much lumber on the road. Note: BROOKLYN is 13-4 ATS   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season and 19-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BROOKLYN is 16-7 ATS  L/23 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season

I also betting on a motivated game from the Nets newest acquisition Okafor as he goes against his old teammates. His will to show his old team what he's truly worth  should spread and motivate the entire squad to a stronger than normal performance . Okafor a former No.3 pick with the Philadelphia 76ers was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last month, and has slowly been getting acclimated to his new teammates and is getting more minutes of late. This kid has talent, and despite of not working out in Philly is a steal in my opinion for the Nets.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - vs. division opponents, off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more 13-52 SU L/21 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Cavs,  for a team that is held in such high regard by NBA prognosticators, is a team that has not been fluent of late as their  5-8 record in January would indicate . This team needs some motivational therapy, as they are now a half game ahead of the  Heat for third place in the East. To make matters worse the team will have to play without all star Kevin Love who broke his  hand  in his last trip to the hardwood. However, the silver lining is that the Bulls will now be playing small ball for longer stretches , and when they go big with Jae Crowder ( 6-6) and bring Channing Frye off the bench they wont be easily intimidated by guys like Hassan Whiteside, and maybe more motivated in Love's absence ,which I'm betting actually helps them in the long run.  I recently began to believe going small for Cleveland would get them over this ugly slump their in, and now their going to be forced to do it. In their only meeting this season the Cavs beat the Heat 108-97 and lead by as much as 34 points , and now even with out a key cog in their lineup matchup well vs the Heat.

CLEVELAND is 8-0 ATS L/8  in home games after 2 consecutive division games  .MIAMI is 1-8 ATS  L/9 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 10-29 L/5 seasons for  ago against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in January games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Houston at home this season, has played down to lower tier opponents like Orlando and have used these type of games , as resting points and live in game scrimmages. Resting key players for longer junctures of the game, and conserving their overall energy levels for foes they deem more important in  stature. This is an intelligent game plan, in a long in grueling season, but it provides an opening for a cover on a DD line. Note: HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS   as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and long term are is 17-37 ATS  L/54 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points.  I know Orlando does not inspire bettors , but they have been competitive of late, and have covered 6 of their L/7 overall

Houston is also just 5-18 ATS  L/23   in home games in non-conference games. Orlando is also 8-2 ATS on the road as non conference DD dogs.

NBA Home favorites (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The Washington Wizards  tried to run and gun with the red hot  Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last week and lost by a 121-111 count. Now in the rematch, I'm betting the Wizards slow things down a little bit, as they play without star guard John Wall in the lineup. This combination of expected strategy and key cog missing  will see their flow curtailed, which will also effect their   offensive output here , which in turn will effect the total combined score falling on the low side of the number.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 UNDER  L/8 in road games on Tuesday nights. ( This could just be an anomaly but still worth noting) OKLAHOMA CITY is also  19-5 UNDER   after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-2 UNDER  L/14  after 5 or more consecutive overs with a combined average of 192.1 ppg scored.

Under is 25-12 in Thunder last 37 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 11-5-1 in Wizards last 17 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5/ 220 (WASHINGTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Dallas Mavs enter this game desperate for a win after being losers of three in a row and six of the last seven, and are off a heart breaking 2 point loss to the Denver Nuggets last time out. The Heat are a fine team but with this being their 4th game in 7 nights will be on tired legs, and susceptible to down performance after playing 5 straight closely contested and grueling games. Dallas won the first meeting between these teams this season, but DALLAS is 32-17 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent and are viable home dogs in this spot.

DALLAS is 13-4 ATS L/17  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.DALLAS is 20-11 ATS L/31 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DALLAS is 33-18 ATS L/51 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 36-13 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

Minnesota is 12 games above .500 and 20-6 at home but the  Timberwolves have lost six of their last seven tilts on the road  and are weak favorites here as they look ahead to going against  the Toronto Raptors on their schedule for  tomorrow night . Meanwhile, Atlanta despite a lackluster record, in a rebuilding year, have been competitive for most of this season, despite of some recent lopsided setbacks. Minnesota is 8-11 against the East and Atlanta is 8-11 against the West and from a system to system and player to player standpoint  the Hawks matchup fairly decently vs the Wolves especially on their own home court.

MINNESOTA is 17-33 ATS  L/50 versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game .ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS  L/12 after 2 consecutive division games.ATLANTA is 16-7 ATS  after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season and is 13-5 ATS  L/18 in non-conference games this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, after allowing 105 points or more in a loss to a division rival are 29-12 SU L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The visiting Charlotte Hornets enter this game with a 4-9-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 1-3-1 ATS in their L/5 strips to the hardwood. The Hornets are also just 3-9 away in  a 1 and 1 situation vs conference opposition. Meanwhile, their hosts the Pacers unlike some people, seem to like playing on Mondays as their 11-1 ATS mark  in their L/12 first games of the week would indicate . The Pacers from a betting perspective have also faired well against  NBA Southeast opposition cashing 8 of their L/10 meetings with the series host cashing 5 straight meetings and once again look like viable wagers.

CHARLOTTE is 14-25 ATS  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Indiana is 19-8 ATS  L/27 vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48%or better  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 43-3 SU l/21 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 8.4 ppg.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

The Rockets have no problem scoring points in bunches behind an explosive offense that averages 116.8 ppg at home this season, but its their defensive performances that are most troubling, as is evident by allowing 108.8 ppg as hosts. Needless to say, the Rockets are a one way offensive juggernaut and nothing will change today vs the visiting Phoenix Suns. The Suns are allowing more than 112 ppg this season, while the offense, has averaged 106.8 ppg on the road  ranking last in the NBA overall and also own the 4th fastest pace . This according to my own projections results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this fairly high but beatable Total.

My own estimates suggest that the Rockets will meet their season average offensive output of around 117 points today, which is a good omen for a over wager cashing as the  Rockets 46-13 OVER   when they score 117 or more points in a game with the combined average score clicking in at 236 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER  L/10 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points wit a combined average score of 236.4 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 11-1 OVER as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points with a combined average of 145.3 ppg going on the board.

PHOENIX is 14-3 OVER  L/17 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game of 130.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 34-8  OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Minnesota Wolves enter this game on a 2 game losing streak, and looked very lackluster on defense in the process, allowing 126 points to Golden State and 123 to Portland.  They looked tired for long stretches of those games, which is not a good omen headed into this game vs a well conditioned Brooklyn team that is tenacious and competitive.  In the  Nets last trip to the hardwood a 116-91 loss to the Bucks,  they had a rare ugly outing but that has been the exception in recent outings, as 11 of their last 14 games have been decided by six points or less,  and they have covered 12 of their L/15 overall. When these teams met on Jan 3 the Nets squeaked out a 98-97 win at home and actually matchup pretty well against the Wolves and get my support here getting points.

BROOKLYN is 13-3 ATS  L/16 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. BROOKLYN is 16-4 ATS  after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.MINNESOTA is 37-61 ATS  L/98 after allowing 120 points or more .MINNESOTA is 17-30 ATS  L/47 in non-conference games dating back to last season.

NBA Road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 61-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Celtics in a grueling physical game took out the Golden State Warriors  92-88 in a  home win in November. With that template having proven successful last time out, I'm betting on the Celtics preparing to play a similar type conservative affair. Boston's guards limited Golden State's  super star backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a total of 22 points on 8-for-32 shooting in that game. I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight in a much lower scoring game than the pundits might expect.

BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 220 and is 9-1 UNDER   when the total is 220 to 229.5.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 25-4  UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

This game between the visiting NY Knicks and their hosts the Phoenix Suns has the makings of a run and gun all out offensive affair. 

The Suns behind the 4th ranked pace in the NBA  are lead by explosive offensive  guard Devin Booker who is averaging 24.8 points a game but  also own  a lackluster D allowing  112.2 ppg the worst mark in the league. With this their first game home after an extended road trip, I'm betting they will be ready to take off here in their own digs. Note: Over is 19-7-1 in Suns last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Meanwhile, the Knicks  are allowing 110.3 ppg on the road this season, and are consistently taking part in back and forth wide open tilts as is evident by going over the Total in 9 straight and 11 of their L/12 games overall with the average combined score clicking in at 223.5 ppg . The Knicks are also on tired legs as they played last night, and won't have the energy to play physically in what should be a loosely played game. Over is 18-5 in Knicks last 23 games playing on  no  rest.

NEW YORK is 10-1 OVER  L/11 after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season with a combined average score of 224 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 7-0 OVER   versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 228.8 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 23-11 OVER  L/34  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or less assists/game with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The LA Lakers enter this road tilt vs the Bulls  playing decently of late, winning 7 of their L/9 and have been especially good  at home, where they have won 6 straight games. However, you have to remember that this young Lakers team previous to their current top tier play, lost 9 straight , and have lost 15 of 21 road games and I currently feel still don't deserve a great deal of respect at this juncture of their campaign. Meanwhile, Chicago, in what has been tabbed as a rebuilding year, have surprisingly been tough to play against as is evident by covering 6 of their L/7 overall and 20 of their L/26 , and  13 of their 21 home tilts. After a bad outing against the 76ers last time out, I'm betting the Bulls will be primed to bounce back with a big effort here. Add to that the Bulls are also in revenge mode for a 103-94 loss at Staples back on Nov 21 and we have a fired up group to back in this spot play.

Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Lakers are 2-6 L/8 in Chicago.

Bulls are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Bulls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog are 30-1 SU 21 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg, which qualifies this as solid ATS choice.

Underdogs vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 10-52 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of more than 8 ppg.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

 The Kings enter this game with a little momentum after they  snapped an eight-game losing streak Tuesday, by taking out  the Orlando Magic 105-99 in the visitors role. Meanwhile, the Heat are of an emotional close lose by a  99-90 count at the Houston Rockets on Monday. That game was very competitive  to the very end and a grueling conclusion to  a 5 game road trip , and will now have a Heat side that has not been home in 10 days, and still getting acclimated to their own digs again in a letdown spot. This makes the Heat vulnerable in my opinion, especially on a slightly bloated line. Hey folks, I know the Kings may not inspire bettors, but they are playing better overall ball as this season has progressed and found a spark plug Garrett Temple who had a career best 34 points last time out. His energy and professionalism/work ethic  are spreading through the Kings locker room and translating itself into a nice energy flow for his team. QUOTE: "Garrett has been a fantastic leader for us, and I couldn't be happier for him," Kings coach Dave Joerger told the media. "He is the ultimate professional. For him to have this type of night, I'm just tickled." END QUOTE.

The Heat are 0-10 ATS failing to cover by 5.4 ppg off a loss as a dog in which they led by double-digits.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest are 43-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Pistons enter this game on a 5 game losing streak, and are now desperate to get back in the win column here at home in Motown this Wednesday night. Meanwhile, visiting Utah also continues to exhibit inconsistencies this season, and have lost 13 of their L/17 overall. Despite of both teams futility , one side stands out as being slightly superior from a matchup perspective and that is the home team according to my own player to player and system vs system matchup stats/data. In a contest of two struggling teams the lesser of two evils is the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons SRS is 0.36 ranking them 14th in the league while the Jazz SRS -0.43 ranking them 17th in the league. ( SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average)

DETROIT is 11-3 ATS  in non-conference games this season.DETROIT is 15-5 ATS L/20 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened last time out to Brooklyn 101-100.DETROIT is 12-2 ATS L/14 in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Northwest.

 UTAH is 27-42 ATS  as a road underdog over the last few seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 2-25 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of loss coming by 10.1 ppg.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

The Pelicans enter this game having seen a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored on the road this season. Meanwhile, Charlotte has seen a combined average  score of 211.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. These averages and a head to head matchup systems analysis has me projecting a total closer to 218.5 to 220, which gives us value on making a UNDER wager in this spot. The discrepancy between my numbers in the offered total is partially based on series history which has seen both sides take part in a high scoring affairs. But the lines-makers have stretched this number to its outer limits and there is value on the under considering my projections.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 UNDER L/29  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record with the combined average of 207.9 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 23-12 UNDER  L/35 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game with t a combined average of 210 ppg scored.

HC Clifford of Charlotte is Clifford is 21-9 UNDER in home games after a win by 6 points or less ( beat Sacramento 112-107 last time out) the combined average score of 195.1 ppg.

Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 6-2 in Pelicans last 8 road games.Under is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 37-84 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The combined average score of those games was 218.7 ppg)

Play UNDER

Cleveland and San Antonio are two teams that have been  under performing of late. But one team looks like they care and are working hard to get back on track, while the other( Cleveland ) despite of saying what's politically correct to the media , looks like their just going thorough the motions. The Cavs leader, LeBron James responses to media of late about his team performances (3-9 SU L/12) , have been  positive in nature, and despite of him saying he's playing as hard as ever,  its not translating onto the court, which  is a worrisome situation.  The Cavs biggest issue is one that makes you wonder if their a championship calibre team,  as  they have allowed 119.8 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood, and overall on the season rank 28th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, San Antonio are coming off a only their 4th loss at home this season last time out to Indiana, but are more than capable of bouncing back behind a defense, that is ranked No.1 in the league in points allowed and 2nd in defensive efficiency. With that said, the difference maker tonight I'm betting will come via the superior defense and coach ( Popovich).

CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS  versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 4-15 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season .CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season and is 1-9 ATS  off a home loss by 10 points which happened against  Oklahoma City 148-124.

SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS  in home games after playing a home game this season. SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS L/22 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened against Indiana last time out.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 63-28 L/ 21 seasons for 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-2 SU L/5 seasons, winning SU by 10.6 ppg for a 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover

The Timberwolves were riding a  five-game win streak in early January, but have suddenly begun to struggle losing to Orlando and Houston in back to back affairs, before coming up with a big victory vs the Raptors on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Clippers, ended a  six-game winning run  on the weekend with a loss to the Jazz. The Clippers have also  won four consecutive home games and 12 of their past 16 contests overall  and  from a matchup standpoint here on their own home floor deserve to be favorites and are my choice tonight as short chalk. Note: LA also has revenge on board for a loss here to the Wolves back in December, and will primed for payback.

Note: Wolves Jimmy butler is less than 100% for this tilt with a knee injury and may miss this tilt.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 31-69 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more  shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 9-52 SU L/ 5 seasons and a perfect 0-7 SU this season for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

Play on the Clippers to cover

The Denver Nuggets were focused this season in the first meeting,  between these teams  in Portland on Dec 22. walking away with a solid 102-85 win in a game where they looked like they matched up well vs their opponents. After ugly losses to Atlanta and Phoenix at home lately, HC Malone is on the hot seat, and needs a win here to keep the proverbial wolves at bay. I'm betting he will pull out all the stops here to get his reeling team back in gear here in what is important game for the Nuggets in a few different ways.

Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 117-43 SU winning by an  average of 6.8 ppg.

Play on Denver to cover

The explosive Rockets take on the feisty Miami Heat on Monday night at Toyota Center  after exerting a lot of energy in back to back wins vs  the  Minnesota Timberwolves and Warriors at home . Now in an emotional let down spot I expect the Rockets may find themselves in a bit of a letdown spot vs a physical side  and susceptible to being upset but more importantly failing in their quest to cover.

HOUSTON is 5-17 ATS  L/22  in home games in non-conference games and is 6-17 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog, which happened vs the Warriors last time out.

MIAMI is 13-4 ATS  L/17 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points .

MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.MIAMI is 31-13 ATS  versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 35-74 ATS L/5 seasons for go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover

 Utah won its last game but not has not won two games in a row  in over a month. I'm betting things wont change this  Monday night when they visits the Atlanta Hawks. It must be noted that on  the season the Jazz are just 8-15 SU on the road, for the leagues worst away record. Meanwhile, Atlanta after a horrendous start to their campaign, has won seven  of their L/ 16 games and more importantly have covered 11 of their L/17 overall and have become highly competitive. The Hawks got shellacked last time out, but this rebuilding franchise has been resilient of late, and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. In their current forms the wrong team is favored here. Take the points.

Jazz are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 60-19 SU L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Spurs are desperate to get back on track after struggling of late, and will have their opportunity here at home vs a exhausted Indiana Pacers team that has lost two straight while mustering 86 points in both tilts and  on the tail end of a 5 game  Western Conference road trip. Add to that the Spurs have revenge on board for a 97-94 loss at Indiana as 6.5 point favorites earlier this season and you have a motivated side to back . With that said, the odds according to my own power rankings  are weighted sufficiently enough in the Spurs favor  to get payback here at the AT& T Center tonight where they have won 14 straight games.  Recent  top tier non conference performances at home by the Spurs this season also indicate ( 15-3 ATS) that we are backing a solid favorite here.SAN ANTONIO is also  13-4 ATS  overall as a home favorite this season winning SU by an average of 11.6 ppg.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 ATS   in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season - Spurs 107.3 opposition 97.5 .

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 71-7 SU  L/5 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.8 ppg. 

Play on San Antonio to cover

Indiana is on tired legs, as they are on the tail end of a 5 game western conference road trip. Their ability to play physical defense,  I'm betting will be hampered by fatigue. Meanwhile, the Spurs anxious to get back on a winning run and inflict payback for a previous loss to the Pacers earlier this season, will see the Spurs playing aggressively, and pushing the tempo of the game. This will force the Pacers to chase, and reciprocate with some offense of their own in game that I have pegged to over the set total. Note: INDIANA is 9-1 OVER L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) with a combined average of 224.8 ppg scored.

Pacers offense averages 106.5 ppg this season and on the road have also averaged  105.9 ppg on average , while the defense has allowed 105.7 ppg overall and 106.5 ppg. San Antonio has scored 107 ppg at home this season, and overall have seen a combined average of 204.6 ppg.

SAN ANTONIO is 18-7 OVER  L/25 revenging a same season loss vs opponent with a combined average of 208.7 ppg scored. NDIANA is 22-11 OVER  L/33 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 216.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less are 23-4 OVER L/21 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Celtics won the first two games of the season series with Orlando and have won six straight against the Magic.   Boston has also won 14 straight and 17 of the last 18 against the Magic at TD Garden and part of the reason this line is slightly bloated and offering value for advantage . Boston's a hard working team, that has played valiantly this season, despite of a opening game injury suffered by Gordon Hayward, but in their current form makes them less than viable DD favs, as has been evident in 3 of their L/5 when they failed to eclipse the 91 point plateau. it must also be noted that  Orlando has been highly competitive of late , covering 4 straight and 5 of their L/6 and its also interesting to note that  Celtics HC Stevens is 1-10 ATS L/11 versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in his career with the Celtics.

BOSTON is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).

NBA Home teams (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are just 4-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 87% for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover

Golden State the reigning NBA champs come into Houston ready to inflict some punishment on a team, that is a direct threat to their elite status. The last time these teams played here in Houston the Warriors took a 124-114 win . The Rockets tried to unsuccessfully run and gun with the champs, and nothing should change in the rematch including the margin of victory for the visitors.HOUSTON is 8-19 ATS  L/27  in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and  is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game .

HOUSTON is 4-17 ATS  L/21 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last couple of seasons and is 1-9 ATS  L/10 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

Golden State is 6-1 SU/ATS L/7 visits here.

Play on Golden State to cover

Cleveland has struggled mightily, of late, and barely took a 104-103 win vs lowly  Orlando last time out, as there looks to be very little motivation , from even key players like LeBron James. But now with this game on national tv (ABC) James will want to make a big showing. He's a great player , but his ego , and ability to speak about himself in the third person, has me wondering where one of the greatest players the game has ever seen mindset is. Wherever his thoughts are one thing for sure is that he wants his legacy to be remembered, and on this big stage, I'm betting he will shine and lead his team to victory in this spot vs a Oklahoma  City side , that they matchup well against  . By the way folks, I'm not down on Cleveland , with so much time left to play in the season. I'm a true believer in this group, as they have the talent to turn things around, and today could be a catalyst to them starting to play the way I think they can. Note: Cleveland D, has struggled of late, but the Thunder has shown a lack of an ability to deal with these types of pourous defenses, as is evident by a 4-16 ATS  record  versus struggling defensive teams -  allowing shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season .

OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS  L/22 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS  L/16  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season .

NBA team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 7 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are 70-31 SU l/101 opportunities winning by an average of 6.5 ppg.

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team winning SU by an average of 10.4 ppg.

Play on Cleveland to cover

The Suns offense remains in issue as they have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 3 of their L/5 and now the  defense is being scrutinized after allowing Portland to shoot over 50% from the field in game they  played Tuesday night. Some of the players blamed it on fatigue, but you can bet, HC Triano a master tactician won't take this sitting down, and will try diligently  to make sure his young team works harder on their transitional play and overall defense tonight vs a sometimes explosive Nuggets team. Something that might aid the Suns, in their attempt to slow down the Nuggets offense is the rash of nagging injuries the Nuggets are currently experiencing and the heavy schedule that will now have them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Thanks to a array of issues  it must be noted that Denver has failed to score 99 or more points in 5 of their L/8 overall.The Nuggets  have gone under in 5 straight games and in 7 of their L/8 overall, and despite of some historical high scoring past meetings, I'm betting history is unlikely to repeat itself here under the current circumstances.

DENVER is 17-6 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 205.4 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-7 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half  are 55-20 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for totals bettors with the average combined score of these games clicking in a 209 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 71-38 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Pistons enter this game in a slump after having lost 3 straight games, and consistently struggle since point guard Reggie Jackson went down with injury.  Meanwhile, Washington despite of also being inconsistent actually matchup well against the Pistons according to my cross reference power rankings systems and get  the nod here on the road tonight in Motown.

DETROIT is 12-28 ATS  L/40 when the line is +3 to -3 dating back to last season.

WASHINGTON is 7-2 straight /ats against DETROIT over the last few seasons ; Washington won the first two meetings this season -- both came at  home , by an  average 11 ppg.

NBA Home underdogs (DETROIT) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%). are 9-35 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

Detroit enters this game ranked 25th in offense and 21st in pace, and own the 4th ranked D,  and I'm expecting those numbers to remain on average here tonight against the Wizards. Meanwhile, Washington ranks 13th in pace and 11 in defensive rating, and 11th in offensive rating. My numbers make the Total closer to 203-204 thus giving us value with the under here.

DETROIT is 8-0 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 193.5 ppg going on the board.DETROIT is 15-4 UNDER  L/19 after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 199.3 ppg scored.DETROIT is 11-2 UNDER  L/13 as a home underdog of 6 points or less dating back to last season with a combined average of with a combined average of 194.5 ppg clicking in.DETROIT is 15-6 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (WASHINGTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 70-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

Miami is a big strong physical team that matches up very well against Brooklyn. The Heat's defensive play is above average and tenacious in nature and are allowing  and average of just 98.4 points in their last 20 games.Miami's defensive rating during this time span  is 103.7 points per 100 possessions while allowing  opposition offenses  to convert just  44.9 percent from the floor and 35.5 percent from downtown.  Meanwhile, Brooklyn is a team that usually  struggles against teams like the Nets, with big men, on their roster  ie ( Hassan Whiteside) and according to my own cross reference rankings matchup poorly in both teams current forms. The nets have lost 3 straight and   6 of their L/7 overall, and have lost 6 of their L/8 at home, and now have to face a side that is in top form and out to revenge a ugly 111-87 loss the Nets at home back on Dec 29. With that said, I'm betting on the Heat coming out here motivated and ready to inflict some payback, in a place where they have had good success off late winning and covering their L/4 trips to Brooklyn.

MIAMI is 30-12 ATS  versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign. Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Play on Miami to cover

Indiana has been streaky this season, and right now they are  on a winning streak, of 3 games  and have won 5 of their l/6 SU and have looked good in back to back road games. Now with momentum on their sides I'm expecting another top tier effort vs a very inconsistent Portland side. The Pacers also have the added incentive of revenge on board for a 114-96 loss at home earlier this season to the Blazers. So now on a couple of days rest and motivated to get some pay back I'm recommending we take the points with them here tonight.

INDIANA is 13-3 ATS  L/16  in road games when playing with 2 days rest .PORTLAND is 3-11 ATS   as a home favorite this season.

Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Trail Blazers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Pacers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.Trail Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central.Trail Blazers are 6-15-3 ATS in their last 24 home games.

NBA Home favorites (PORTLAND) - after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are  51-18 ATS L/21 seasons and a perfect 6-0 ATS this season !

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

When these teams played back in late November of this season, the Warriors took a 143-94 win vs their hosts tonight the Chicago Bulls. I'm sure that bad defensive performance still is a sore point for Hoiberg and company, and this time around I'm betting the Bulls despite of some decent offensive production of late won't allow themselves to get caught up in shoot out that they probably can't win. This I'm betting cuts into the lines-makers Totals projections. Add to that the Warriors are off a big win vs Cleveland last time out, and now in a an emotional letdown situation, their energy levels should be diminished , and their offensive output curtailed, which could lead to a much lower scoring game than expected.

HC Kerr is 21-9 UNDER L/30 in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season with the combined average score registering in at 214.6 ppg. Bulls HC Hoiberg is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent with a combined average score of 201.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. NBA Central.Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Chicago.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 UNDER L/17 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 214.7 ppg scored.CHICAGO is 30-18 UNDER versus teams - allowing 106+ points/game with the average combined score clicking in at 207.9 ppg.

GOLDEN STATE is 23-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 229.5 to 230 with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 27-10 UNDER L/37 in home games in non-conference games with a combined average of 198.9 ppg scored.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 33-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER

The Pelicans, are on tired legs  after, defeating the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics 116-113 in overtime at Boston on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Atlanta is playing much better of late,  and are coming off a 102-99 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. The Hawks have shown some fight in recent games and must not be disrespected here as they are  4-3 against Western Conference teams at home this season. In 31 of their 43 games, the Hawks have been within at least one possession at some point in the fourth quarter and deserve our attention as dogs in this spot play.

ATLANTA is 27-14 ATS  L/41 versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game. Pelicans HC Gentry is 9-23 ATS  L/31 after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots.

Pelicans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Southeast.Hawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference.Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 4-27 SU L/5 seasons losing  by an average of 10.2 ppg.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The Orlando Magic have struggled for most of this season, and are on a 7 game losing streak, but  have been fairly competitive of late with  five losses coming  by single digits with the  average margin of defeat clicking in at  8.4 ppg during the skid. Meanwhile, Minnesota is in top form and off a 5 game home stand where they won all their games. But it's not always easy transitioning in cohesive fashion from a  comfortable road environment to a   hostile one on the road, especially after an extended period of time in your own digs. It must also be noted that the Wolves have lost 2 in a row on the road, and 3 of their L/4 away  and have  Houston on deck next. This combination could have the TWolves looking ahead and feeling just a bit to confident , which gives Orlando a viable chance at an upset and more importantly a cover.

The Wolves have covered only 2 of 10 games as non conference chalk this season. Orlando has covered 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series as dogs.

MINNESOTA is 16-32 ATS L/48 versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game.MINNESOTA is 18-43 ATS L/61 after scoring 120 points or more.

Play on Orlando to cover

The Rockets enter this contest against the LA Clippers playing decently without super star James Harden ( injury). However, the Rockets still don't look like they have the same flow they had with him in the lineup. Yes, their offense remains productive, but I can see chinks in their armour, and I'm betting the Clippers find a way to slow them down a little bit on their own home floor. I know these teams took part in a high scoring 128-118 affair back in late December , that the Rockets won, but with the Clippers learning their lesson, I expect a different type of approach here. With that said,   the  Clippers  know its in their best interest to slow this game down if they want positive results. With LAC HC Rivers starting to look like a much better tactician than he was earlier in coaching career  ,   I'm also  betting Rivers will try to slug it out with Houston in a slower more grinding game, instead going head to head with them,   in a run and gun affair again. This will result in a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers might expect.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half dating back to last season with a combined average of 195.4 ppg going on the board. LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 UNDER L/18 in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 208.5 ppg scored.HOUSTON in their L/28 games in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game have seen a combined  average of 222.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 31-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

Utah has not played very inspired basketball of late losing 14 of their L/18 and probably don't inspire many bettors, but they are in a favorable spot here tonight against a tired Indiana side off a desert win vs Phoenix last night. With Indiana now on tired legs and now having to compete in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City the fatigue factor will become key to us laying the short lumber with the desperate home side that is well rested. Pacers are 15-31-1 ATS in their last 47 games playing on 0 days rest.

The Jazz are 8-2 SU L/10 at home in this series, and won and covered the most recent two meetings here. Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest


NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 66% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

The struggling  Cleveland Cavaliers'   prepare to host the rival Golden State Warriors on national TV on Monday. The Cavs have played uninspired ball of late losing 7 of their L/9 overall, but now with the defending league champs in town , I'm betting on them finally coming out here and showing us their ability to play a complete game. Last time out they built a 22 point lead before losing a 97-95 decision to Indiana. That was a humbling experience for this talented group, and now with redemption at hand vs what is arguably the best hoops team in the world, they should be ready leave everything on the floor. When these teams  played on Christmas Day this season, the Cavs actually looked comfortable, and played well in a hard fought close 97-92 loss, and are more than capable of a cover here and SU upset vs a Warriors side on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and 7th in 11 days.

Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) are 14-39 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 60-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

The Lakers  have had success of late and are on a 4 game win streak thanks to playing  much better defensive hoops and held the last three opponents to an average of 89.3 points. Tonight against a Memphis side that has only average 97.8 ppg in offensive production at home, I'm betting on them keeping their foes under wraps again. It must also be noted that the Lakers have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 of their L/7 in slower paced affairs behind the 29th ranked offensive rating in the league. Meanwhile, Memphis is off scoring 78 points last time out in a hard fought defensive game in Denver (87-78), and I'm betting that Fizdale and company stick to this type of physcial hoops again, as they revert back to a slower paced game plan as they search for consistency.

Memphis is ranked 30th in Pace in the NBA while their  offense ranks 29th.

Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 games following a ATS win.

MEMPHIS is 15-7 UNDER L/22 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season .MEMPHIS is 16-5 UNDER in home games this season with a combined average of 198.5 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a combined score of 175 points or less are 39-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Call me crazy but I'm going to stand in front of the Miami Heat freight train tonight. Yes, they have played well of late and won 7 straight games, but they are on tired legs after playing last night in South Florida vs the Bucks  and then had to catch a red eye here to Chicago to play the Bulls , in an afternoon affair. This should have both discombobulated and exhausted ,which obviously makes them vulnerable to a down performance vs a team that is playing only their 2nd game in 5 nights.

CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS   against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bulls HC Hoiberg is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21  or less free throws/game.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MIAMI) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-7 SU L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

The Knicks have recently struggled on the road, but I'm not sure we should look at this as a true road game, as their will be plenty of Knicks fans in attendance here in Brooklyn to his afternoon.  Last night  New York choked and gave  up a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter and suffered a 123-118 overtime. I know the Knicks lost, but watching excerpts of that game, showed me this team still has the ability to take down any team in the league , and tonight I expect they will turn the trick vs a side that they matchup well against according to my power rankings. The Knicks  Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 25 points off the bench Sunday and  is looking strong and will make his 3rd start after coming back from injury and should be now in top form as the rust  has worn off. I'm betting on him to be the catalyst in a Knicks cover .

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Knicks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW YORK) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 28-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-91 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Both Washington and Milwaukee are very inconsistent sides, despite of having a lot of talent , and today I expect they will partake in a closely contested affair , with the advantage going to the visitor getting points. Washington is a weak favorite as is evident by  their  4-15 ATS  record  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 8-21 ATS record overall  chalk this season. I know the Wizards have played well of late but they don't deal well with success , as they are just  1-8 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off 2 straight losses, but it must be noted that  HC Kidd is 19-4 ATS  L/23 after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more . I know the Bucks played last night, but they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on no rest.Bucks are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and have failed to cover 4 straight at home.

NBA Road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games 60-33 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Minnesota Wolves are a fine young team on a current 4 game win streak, but the Blazers now getting healthy and are a side that must not be underestimated. The last time these teams met about a month ago, the Wolves scratched out a 108-107 victory, in a game that could obviously gone either way.

Overall the Blazers style of play matches up very well against the Wolves, and despite of a two game losing streak are looking good overall, as they had previous to that notched six wins in eight games.  It must also be noted that Minnesota is just 6-12-1 ATS as home chalk this season,  and have failed to cover 18 of their L/23 in this series at home, and are just 2-8 SU/ATS when the Blazers are seeking revenge. Overall the Wolves have a history of short changing their backers at home vs non division foes looking for same season revenge going just 2-10 ATS when they are above. 500 on the season.

MINNESOTA is 4-14 ATS  L/18  in home games after scoring 115 points or more .Trail Blazers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.

Portland has covered 5 straight visits to Minnesota.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Miami Heat enter this game in good form after having won 6 straight games. A combination of playing against lower tier teams and sides that are banged up culminated in this short handed group Heat group compiling this current streak. The Heat  during their run have been less than overpowering as Two of their victories have  come by one point and another came in overtime. It must also be noted that all six of those games were decided by less than 10 points. Now with a huge target on their backs, the Heat are vulnerable. With that said,   I'm betting the Greek Freak ( Giannis Antetokounmpo) and his Wisconsin travelling circus will be primed to come into South Florida and notch a win and more importantly a cover vs a team they matchup very well against according to my cross reference system vs system and player vs players analysis.

MIAMI is 5-13 ATS  in home games this season. .MIAMI is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games on Sunday games .Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bucks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central.Heat are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 26-7 ATS L/21 seasons for 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Pistons  have lost three of their last five games, but are coming off a 114-80 victory over Brooklyn on Wednesday. Despite of that victory I have not liked the way Van Gundy's group has played overall,  since starting point guard Reggie Jackson, went down with an injury  and are highly inconsistent , even more so than the average NBA team (which says something).  Meanwhile, the host Bulls  snapped a two-game losing streak Wednesday with a 122-119 double overtime victory over the New York Knicks and are now ell rested and ready to use that momentum heading into this tilt. The Bulls also have also the added services of formerly injured guard Zach  LaVine  and are getting healthier as the season has progressed despite of this being a rebuilding year and are my choice to cash tonight at home.

Note: Bulls Nikola Mirotic is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Detroit ( Illness ) .

CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS    in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season. CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.

DETROIT is 4-17 ATS  L/21 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 .

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

Both the LA Lakers and Dallas Mavericks are playing decent basketball at the moment. Both are still cellar dwellers but, one team in my head to head analysis is superior to the other, and that side is Dallas. With this game on the Mavs with 2 days rest on their  home floor I expect  what my power ranking tell me is the  better team to come out of this with a win and cover. Add to that the young Lakers are in a huge letdown spot after a very motivated upset win the Spurs last time out, and are now susceptible to a flat performance.

LA LAKERS are 11-24 ATS  L/35 after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last couple of seasons.

Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.

Dallas is 7-0 SU L/7 meetings in this series and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games are 22-92 SU L/22 seasons losing SU by an average of 9.7 ppg.

NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in January games are 55-5 SU L/22 seasons winning SU by an average of 8.9 ppg.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover

Cleveland has looked asleep at the proverbial wheel in back to back games after getting clobbered by Minnesota by 28 points on Monday night,  and then smashed in their ugliest defeat of the  season, 133-99, at Toronto Thursday night. Now humiliated and seeking redemption as well as revenge for two earlier losses this season to Indiana already this season , I'm betting on the Cavaliers  finally coming out and getting down to business. Tonight I expect LeBron James and his humungous ego to come out here and show a glimpse of his Hall of Fame talent and lead his team to a cover. Meanwhile,  after having a  two game home win streak abruptly ended ,  by losing  114-106 to visiting Miami on Wednesday night I've begun to notice the Pacers  looking strangely in cohesive for long stretches more often as the season progresses which is a worrisome development. I think this team feeds to much off leading scorer  Victor Oladipo and when he's not in a groove the team goes into a sinkhole. With that said, I am recommending we lay the short lumber with the Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde Cavaliers.

Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% SU conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 10.1 ppg.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

The Spurs key to success has always been a dominant D, but with a boatload full of injuries to key defensive players, ie ( K Leonard) I'm betting they will be at a disadvantage tonight, against a young LA Lakers team that despite of trying to play better D,  is still for the most part  a one way run and gun team. Earlier this season with Parker and Leonard out, the Spurs still played very competitive ball, and I'm betting nothing changes tonight, except maybe their ability to defend and be physical in the process, as they are also on tired legs, as they play their third road game in four nights. The Lakers offense has been a little stagnant of late, but with an opportunity to upset a big time opponent I'm betting we see these kids and their veterans in top form and ready to run. The above mentioned group of situations should contribute to a looser game than many might expect and a much higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect.

LAL ranks 29th in the league in D and own the No.1 pace.

Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 19-9 in Spurs last 28 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 11-4 in Lakers last 15 overall.Over is 22-8-1 in Lakers last 31 vs. NBA Southwest.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for Totals bettors with a combined average of 225.6 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

A week ago I would have been backing the Raptors in this spot, vs a struggling Cavaliers side,   but with the high possibility of playing tonight's game without guard Kyle Lowry, who is listed as day-to-day with a bruised tailbone and back spasms,  I'm betting against the Raptors instead.  Lowry's abs cense was obvious in a loss to Miami last time out, as the Raptors took it on the chin in a  90-89 decision to the Heat.  I know Cleveland has been playing less than inspired hoops of late, but going against one of the Eastern Conference strongest teams I expect LeBron James and company to be very motivated and ready to perform to their best of their abilities. QUOTE: "I mean, the whole game is completely different without Kyle," said Raptors star DeRozan, who scored 25 points and gave Toronto an 89-88 lead on a basket with 3.1 seconds left. "You can kind of tell with our ball movement wasn't all the way there like it normally be when Kyle's out there. Like I said, he's a general on the floor. He sees things when they need to be called. That's no excuse." END QUOTE. No ones making excuses for the Raptors, but like I said above and what  his team mate also suggests is that TO just doesn't have the same energy with Lowry at less than 100% or not playing.

Note: The Dinos, forward Serge Ibaka is also expected to miss with an injury.

Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto

NBA  Road underdogs (CLEVELAND) - struggling team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 are a long term profitable bet, going 131-80 ATS L/21 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Oklahoma City is a talented but an inconsistent team, that is still above .500 on the season. Their veterans ie ( Melo, George, Westbrook) and the experience they bring to the court make them viable underdogs against young teams like Minnesota . Last night, the Thunder, looked asleep at the proverbial wheel, in their game vs short handed Portland losing by a 117-106 count. However, after not showing up for that game, the Thunder should have plenty of jump and energy for this tilt vs their hosts the Wolves. Meanwhile, the Wolves are  dynamic group, with plenty of athleticism, and are off an impressive 127-99 win vs the Cavaliers last time out, but according to my own matchup data, and cross reference player vs player and system vs systems rankings, the Thunder have an edge vs a side that could easily be in a letdown mode after their last complete game tenacious effort.   Its also interesting to note  that MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games after scoring 120 points or more . HC Thibodeau is 4-15 ATS   in home games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more in all games  he coached in his career.

MINNESOTA is 22-38 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game dating back to last season.Timberwolves are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. .Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games following a double-digit loss at home.Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Timberwolves are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 28-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors and also NBA teams vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 33-13 SU in the follow up L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Detroit is  has really been having  a lot of problems defending of  late, especially on the road as is evident by a  8-13 away record, which is ranks last in the Eastern Conference and recently have allowed allowing 101.4 points and 46.9 percent shooting  during their current 5 game losing road run. QUOTE: "We've lost five straight on the road and all of them have been horrendous defensive effort, every one of them," Motown's HC Van Gundy said. "Pathetic defensive effort. I don't think our effort is close to good. "END QUOTE: I agree with his assessments, and I'm doubting this teams ability to make a 360 here.

The Nets are 3-3 SU in their last six games but have been extremely competitive last five games  as the games were decided by three points or less and I'm betting they come out here and take advantage of a down trodden Pistons team in this spot and once again give their opponents headaches behind a strong blue collar work ethic.  

BROOKLYN is 16-6 ATS  L/22 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DETROIT is 16-29 ATS  L/45  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record.

DETROIT is 3-17 ATS  L/20 on the road when the line is +3 to -3. BROOKLYN is 8-1 ATS  L/9 off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog this season.

Brooklyn has covered 4 straight at home in this series.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off a loss against a division rival, in January games are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover

The Toronto Raptors are on tired legs after an  overtime victory over the Nets last  night. Not only will they be exhausted but  also maybe short handed after  All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry injured himself last night. If Lowry does not play or is less than 100% the Raptors flow will be interrupted and so will their offensive cohesiveness. Also after last nights affair this Raptors side will be in no condition to run and gun, which will also effect their output ratio. Another factor here is that  we may see the explosive TO crew curtail their aggressiveness  as coach Casey, was not impressed with their defensive play last night, and now wants a concerted effort in transition,  in their own end of the court. This Toronto team despite of being an offensive juggernaut when healthy , play solid D, and rank 6th in Defensive efficiency in the league and are more than capable of stepping up their stopping efforts. Meanwhile the Heat  despite of taking part in some fairly high scoring tilts of late, do their best work when their playing tough defensive ball behind Hassan Whiteside, and tonight I'm betting their prepared to be physical in their quest to some how slow down this explosive side  ( Heat Rank 27th in pace in the league and 7th in points allowed). These scenarios play well towards this total score falling below the posted Number. Note: The four most recent meetings in this series have all failed to eclipse the posted total with a combined average of 187.8 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 26-12 UNDER  L/38 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 199.1 ppg scored during that span.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER L/10  in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days with a combined average of 200 ppg going on the board.

Under is 60-29-1 in Heat last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-2 in Heat last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 home games.

NBA  team (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 30-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

It has become obvious to me recently  the importance of Indiana Pacers leading scorer Victor Oladipo to the teams successes or failures. He's is truly the key to this teams flow in my humble opinion and brings a great deal of chemistry and energy to the Pacers attack. After losing 5 straight games, Oladipo made a triumphant return last time out  scoring 26 points as his team blasted the Bulls by a lopsided 125-86 count and I'm betting his fresh legs will be the catalyst to a Pacers win and cover tonight vs visiting Milwaukee . QUOTE: "He opened up the offense as well as the defense with a couple of steals in the first quarter," McMillan said about Oladipo  . "We were able to establish a tempo. When you have a guy like that capable of creating opportunities for himself as well as his teammates. It just frees you up. A lot of what our guys have to do is catch and shoot because the defense is focused on him." END QUOTE:

With Oladipo out, the Bucks owned  the Pacers in a 122-101 blowout last Wednesday night. But now with revenge on board and their star back in the lineup payback is at hand.

MILWAUKEE is 12-23 ATS   L/35 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or less. INDIANA is 22-10 ATS   L/32 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.INDIANA is 26-13 ATS  39  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent.

Bucks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central. Some teams and people don't like Mondays ( aka Boom Town Rats - 1979) but it seems the Pacers like the first day of the week, as they are 7-0 ATS  L/7 Monday games) Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bucks: 0-3-1 in 1/1 rest sit vs div -Pacers: 4-1 home in 1/1 rest sit vs div.

Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-18 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (INDIANA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are a long term viable wagering option, going 106-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Indiana to cover

The Miami Heat  enter this home game playing some good hoops of late, winning three straight , and  now go against a inconsistent  slumping Utah Jazz team that has lost 12 of their L/15 games  this  Sunday afternoon  at American Airlines Arena.

Both these teams overall numbers on the season suggest they are comfortable playing slower paced hoops. But recent stats and style of play do not support the overall data. This giving us value playing the OVER.

The Jazz's biggest problem this season is their inability to play solid defense, something they have become respected for, until recently. That is evident by allowing more than 100 points in 12 of their L/15 tilts with the average  opposition offensive production coming in at 109.4 ppg in those above mentioned games . With the Heat hitting their offensive stride of late scoring , 117, 111, 107 points in their L/3 , in fast paced back and forth affairs, . Considering the Heats current blue print has been successful   I'm betting on another similar output this Sunday by the Heat as they force the Jazz into a faster paced game than they may want to participate in. It must also be noted that the Heat have allowed 6 of their L/7 opponents to eclipse the 100  point plateau allowing a average of 106.5 ppg in the 6 games. With that said,  my own projections, estimate both sides to eclipse the 100 point plateau, in this spot which makes taking an over wager a  very viable investment option.

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Miami.

MIAMI is 11-1 OVER  L/12  in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49% with a combined average 216.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. UTAH is 14-1 OVER    in road games versus lower tier foul drawing teams - attempting  21 or less free throws/game with the combined average score of 205.6 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games are 37-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 54-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Charlotte  Hornets enter this game  with momentum as they are off a season-high point total in a 131-111 victory at the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, the tired looking LA Lakers are off getting blasted by a 133-96  by the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder in their last trip to the hardwood on Wednesday night.  The Lakers futility has been obvious for a while, as they have lost 8 straight behind an offense ranks last in the NBA in 3-point shooting (32.6 percent), free throw shooting (68.8), and average the second-most turnovers per game (16.1). I know the Lakers beat the Hornets the last time these teams played on Dec. 9 in Charlotte, but the Lakers are only 1-11 since then, and in a major funk. Yes, injuries have played a role in the Lakers recent slide, but even when they are healthy chemistry issues and cohesiveness seem to be an issue. I personally feel having the self promoting Lavar Ball around the team ( Lonzo Balls dad)  makes for a circus like environment that in part is playing havoc with this young groups concentration. With that said, I'm betting on the revenge minded Hornets to come out here and get the win/cover as short road chalk.

Hornets are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 road games.Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.Hornets are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.

CHARLOTTE is 22-8 ATS  L/30  in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.LA LAKERS are 12-27 ATS  L/39 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over.

NBA Home teams (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - poor pressure defensive team - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less, after a game committing 10+ less turnovers than opponents are 45-11 SU L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by +8.9 ppg.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

The Toronto Raptors are in red hot form behind emerging super stars Lowry and DeRozan and up and coming kids with huge potential like Delon Wright. This past Monday On Jan. 1, the Raptors beat the Bucks 131-127 in overtime. That victory was the fourth straight in the series for Toronto, which grabbed the final three games of a first-round playoff series from Milwaukee last spring.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have won 3 of their L/4 with the lone loss coming in the above mentioned game. Despite of this game taking place in Milwaukee I'm betting the superior side according to my power rankings Toronto comes out on top again.
MILWAUKEE is 12-24 ATS L/38 after having won 3 of their last 4 games .

TORONTO is 20-7 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game

Raptors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Bucks are 3-8-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference. Raptors are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Milwaukee.

NBA Home underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Los Angeles is playing some very good hoops at the moment as they go for their seventh win in the last eight tilts  when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is also playing well with seven victories in the last nine outings. However,  In game that is essentially a pickem, my own power rankings suggest in a head to head , and player to player and system vs  system analysis , that the Thunder are the superior overall team and have a better than 55% chance of coming out as the  victorious side. SF Paul George scored 42 points in 42 minutes when the Thunder took  a 120-111 home victory over the Clippers on Nov. 10 and is averaging 26.4 points on 44-of-75 shooting over his last five contests . With that said, I'm betting  George will once again be the key catalyst for what I expect will  be Thunder success in this meeting.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.( last night the Thunder beat LAL 133-96) Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

The Rockets did well without the injured super star James Harden last night in a 116-98 win vs a downtrodden group in the Orlando Magic. Tonight, however, on tired legs  I'm betting their offense will be muted , vs a much better  and under rated defensive side , that is ranked 5th in defensive efficiency  in the league . With that said, I'm expecting the Rockets to take a much more conservative approach to this confrontation, vs the explosive Warriors than they usually would because of being short handed which will result in a slower paced game then expected. The Rockets are also no pushovers on defense as their efficiency ranking is 10th overall in the league and will be primed to play physical ball. Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA);  for players and teams... it is based on points allowed per 100 possessions.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.

The last meeting between these teams was high scoring ,a 122-121 shootout win for the Rockets as road dogs but 5 of the L/6 overall have stayed under the total . I'm expecting for these sides to revert back to those types of confrontations tonight.

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 28-7 UNDER  L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

I don't often watch complete NBA games, but rather , just go through all the action in fast form replays every morning, so I can get a better grip on emotions and energy levels, when I attach all the pertinent stats and power rankings / projections to a matchup vs the line. After all  sports are played by humans and not robots. So for me its important to see and gage with my own eyes what is exactly going on in a matchup.  With that said, for whatever reason, I ended watching big chunks of a previous matchup featuring tonight's combatants, the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz ( played on Dec 1). What I took from that game, and stood out to me was how the Pelicans Anthony Davis seemed to own the Jazz, he looked extremely confident and his team could feel his energy and they played off of it, leading for 3 quarters before Davis injured his hamstring. After Davis exited the Jazz took over and won 114-108. With Davis healthy and expected to play tonight I expect he and  his side kick Cousins to come out here looking for revenge.  Add to that some embarrassing collapses in recent tilts for the well rested Pelicans and I'm betting we see them at their best tonight, and as you can see from the line , the books agree with my assessments.

UTAH is 4-12 ATS  L/16 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.  Pelicans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 19-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 69% for bettors

NBA .teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 50-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

The Bulls after a slow start to their campaign, have really come together as a team, and must be respected here vs the Toronto Raptors as home dogs. The Bulls have covered 16 of their L/21 overall and are 8-2 ATS L/10 vs an above .500 team like the Raptors, and 7-1 ATS L/8 home games. I'm recommending we take the points here with the home dog.

Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central.Raptors are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS  L/16 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season and  is 18-8 ATS  l/26  versus top tier teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game.

CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 20-47 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls