Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-18 | Celtics -2.5 v. Pistons | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Boston (18-10) has won eight straight, including a 129-108 victory over Atlanta on Friday night and enter this game against their hosts the Pistons with a full head of steam, and despite of a heavy schedule still lookalike very viable options to cover vs a team they matchup well against. Note: NBA Favorites SU (BOSTON) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are good long term bets going 43-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average point differential clicking in at 10.5 ppg making this a viable cover situation for the Celtics . BOSTON is also 12-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics have already beaten the Pistons twice this season. They smashed them at Little Caesars Arena 109-89 on Oct. 27, then beat them in Boston 108-105 three nights later. Note: The Pistons are just 0-6 ATS L/6 vs the Celtics with same season double revenge . DETROIT is 2-12 ATS in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 4 ppg. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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12-14-18 | Thunder v. Nuggets +2 | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
Denver is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs the Thunder and beat them SU the last time they met in Oklahoma City back on Nov 28 this season winning 105-98 as 6 point rod dogs.and according to my matchup power rankings are still the superior side when comparing system vs system output projections. I know the Thunder who are currently playing top tier hoops will be out to revenge that loss, but it must be noted that OKLAHOMA CITY is just 9-21 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons and is 6-18 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 7-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season, which was the case last time out, in a 105-99 win vs Memphis 3 days ago. Bottom line here. Is that Denver is well rested and matchup well vs the Thunder. especially considering this will be the Thunders 5 road game in their L/6 outings. Also after a ha rd fought affair and loss on Wednesday night in New Orleans and now playing in the thin air of the Mile High City I wont be surprised if the Thunder run out of gas as this tilt moves into the 2nd half. Advantage Denver. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 42-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Golden State after the tremendous success they have had over the last few seasons, are not playing with alot of intensity of late and are showing signs of complacency. That was evident when the Raptors came into Oakland and clobbered the defending champions by a 113-93 count this past Wednesday night. Now the sometimes lethargic looking champs go into Sacramento to play a young high energy Kings team playing inspired hoops and is up trending. The Kings on most nights are handful to handle, and nothing Im betting changes tonight. So if Golden State does get the win Im betting it will not come easily making getting points here with the home dog golden in my opinion. Note: Golden State held off Sacramento 117-116 at home on Nov. 24. A rinse and repeat situation looks to be a high probability event again. Warriors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Warriors are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. GOLDEN STATE is 12-25 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.Kings are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. SACRAMENTO is 16-7 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season. NBA home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous gamePlay on the Sacramento Kings to cover are 51-14 SU L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento to cover |
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12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 235.5 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Sacramento behind the 3rd ranked pace is feeling confident of late with a run and gun take no prisoners style of play. The last time the Kings had 33 or more fast break points in a previous game, which they did in their last win, they continued to ratchet up their speed and shot taking, as they took part in a 132-112 win vs the Rockets in the followup back on Nov.17. Tonight Im betting they fiercely come right at the Golden State Warriors and the Dubs will have no problems coming right back at a home team ranked 27th in points allowed with some explosive offensive fireworks of their own. This one has the making off a all star like show stopping point fest. Golden State owns the 3rd ranked offense and the 15th ranked D. Over is 9-0 in Kings last 9 vs. Western Conference.Play OVER
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12-14-18 | Bucks v. Cavs OVER 218.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in offensive output ( 118.1 ppg) and the 4th fastest pace and a defence, that ranks 11th in the league allowing 109.2 ppg. Meanwhile, Cleveland their opponents tonight rank 30th in the league in defensive efficiency (115.8 ppg) and are susceptible to being lit up like a Christmas tree vs a explosive offensive team like the Bucks. With that said, I expect the Milwaukee to do what they do best and that is run and gun, and for the Cavaliers to do what they do best, and that is chase the scoreboard from a negative output perspective. This Im betting results in a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect. MILWAUKEE is 20-9 OVER when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 30-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors wit a combined average of 227 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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12-14-18 | Pacers +4 v. 76ers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
The Pacers are a fine team, big and athletic and probably one of the best in the NBA . Indiana has won five straight, including a 16-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. I know Philadelphia is very talented , despite of some recent down efforts, but from a matchup perspective the Pacers matchup very well against them and must be respected here as underdogs even though they are on the road. With With Victor Oladipo back from a knee injury that sidelined him 11 games, Indiana is back at a full strength and the are according to power rankings the beast of the east. INDIANA is 9-1 ATS in road games after a division game over the last 2 seasons. 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Pacers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic.Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Pacers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The 76ers are 0-13 ATS and 1-12 SU with rest off a home loss that was tied five-plus times and it is before the All-Star break with the one win coming by just 2 points. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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12-13-18 | Clippers v. Spurs UNDER 222.5 | 87-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
The Spurs are currently up trending and have won 3 straight, and are showing increased defensive efforts and efficiency especially In their L/2 games, holding the Suns to 86 points the Jazz to 97 points. Im betting they will continue to play a tougher brand of defense first basketball here tonight against a Clippers team that despite of playing good hoops this season, have scored 99 points or less in 3 of their L/4 outings. Considering both sides current form I expect a lower scoring game than the lines makers are estimating. Under is 7-2 in Spurs last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (/SPURS /LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 40-14 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 32-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80%conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-13-18 | Lakers +5.5 v. Rockets | 111-126 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
The Lakers (17-10) have won six of seven games and are now fourth in the Western Conference. Their defense, has been particularly strong while up trending, as they have recorded a 101.4 defensive rating , ranked third in the NBA . Tonight Im betting they have a ATS advantage vs a host team ( Houston) that can't find consistency and constantly 2nd guessing themselves and their overall approach. Needless to say the host team is far from being stable at the moment and weak favorites even here on their own home court. HOUSTON is 8-19 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Lakers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference. Rockets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. Western Conference.Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game NBARoad underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 33-13 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Lakers |
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12-12-18 | Heat v. Jazz UNDER 211 | 84-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Slow starts on offence have been common of late as Utah in back-to-back losses to San Antonio and Oklahoma City averaged just 41.0 first-half points in the two games. Im betting the Jazz who ranked 24th on offence ( 107.2 ppg) have problems consistently putting points on the board tonight again vs a Miami side that currently playing some of their best defence of the season allowing 101.6 ppg in their L/6 overall while holding 3 of those opponents to 100 points or less. ( 5 of those 6 games failed to eclipse the total) The Heat rank 9th in the league defensive efficiency, and own the leagues 22nd ranked offence. These team played a tight 102-100 game earlier this season, and another similar style physical game looks to be tonights agenda. MIAMI is 13-2 UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of just 193 ppg scored. Miami in their L/23 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 207 ppg go on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after a close loss by 3 points or less are 75-39 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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12-12-18 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 231.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
We have a high total here but it's completely justified. The last time these teams played the Thunder won 122-116 at home on Nov.5th this season, and according to the way both teams systems and players matchup another high scoring affair will be on tonights bayou agenda.This tilt for the Pelicans against Oklahoma City will be New Orleans' eighth game in 15 days. The Pelicans have not had more than one day between games since Nov. 8- and are now on tied legs and will be in no way ready to play D, and with that said, I am betting the tThunder will light them up offensively, but thanks to a group of talented shooters averaging 49% FG at home , the the Birds will keep up in what will be a high scoring game according to my projections. Note: New Orleans home games have seen a combined average of 237.4 ppg scored. . Note: NEW ORLEANS I in 20 games where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season have seen a combined average 241 ppg go on the board. My estimates are higher than the +105 point plateau that this trend uses, giving us alot of value with a over wager here as associated with those outputs. Play OVER |
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12-12-18 | Bucks v. Pacers +2.5 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
The Pacers, have won four games in a row, and are very ready to take on a very good Milwaukee Bucks team here tonight. The Pacers have been playing well without key cog Oladipo and because of their never say die attitude and very physical athletic team, are never to be discounted . Especially at home where they are 9-4 this season, behind their No.1 ranked defence. Milwaukee took out the Pacers back on Oct 19 and now the host team has revenge on board. Note INDIANA is 11-2 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 29-15 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 16-64 SU last 22 seasons for go against 80% conversion rate for bettors with the point differential clicking in at 8.9 ppg. Indiana to cover |
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12-11-18 | Raptors v. Clippers +4 | 123-99 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
The Raptors enter this game against the Clippers struggling. Even a very good team like the Raptors go through slumps, and Im betting thats what thy are in the midst of right now as they are scoring just 105 points per game, while going 1-3 over their last four trips to the hardwood. With that said, I look for the Clippers to be very competitive here tonight on their own home floor where they have won 9 of their L/11 overall this season. Clippers are 2-0 SU L/2 as hosts in this series and have won 3 of the L/4 meetings overall. The Clippers are 10-0 ATS/SU L/11 with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and it is before the All-Star break. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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12-11-18 | Suns v. Spurs UNDER 218.5 | 86-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
HC Popovich of the Spurs , has been trying to make sure there has been a balance in the way his team is playing at both ends of the court. He has wanted to see an uptempo attack and concerted defensive effort in transition. Its been a work in progress, but last time out against Utah the Spurs finally played a complete game , winning as underdogs and holding their opponent to just 97 points. That was the Spurs second straight win as pups. With that success, and confidence on their sides, I once again expect for a strong defensive effort here vs a Suns team that has been held under 99 points in 6 of their L/7 overall, thanks in part to top scorer Devon Booker being out. With that said, Im betting the combined score here does not eclipse this number. SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog with a combined average of 178.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 31-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 30-9 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | 103-111 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
The Rockets are not the same team they have been the last couple of season and have a lot of weaknesses that are becoming obvious. The Rockets defence is ranked 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions (112.2) and their week under the offensive glass ranking 29th in defensive rebounding rate (68.5 percent) and ahead of only the Washington Wizards. The Rockets are playing uninspired ball, and showing very little cohesiveness as a team and as a result have ,lost 7 of their L/9 games. Meanwhile, Portland after an extended slump, have come to life lately with two consecutive wins, and will be primed to continue to jump start themselves here by ending a 4 game road losing streak , which has me recommending we go o take here with the visitors in this spot. HOUSTON is 7-19 ATS versus teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and is 5-14 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season. HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-4 ATS L/5 season for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland to cover |
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12-10-18 | Kings -2.5 v. Bulls | 108-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
The Bulls are a mess and have lost 12 of their L/14 games. Meanwhile, Sacramento had a 3 game winning streak end last time out, losing to a very good Indiana side. Wha tIm betting on here tonight is for Chicago hoops team to continue to struggle in rebuilding mode, and for the Kings to be keen on taking care of business vs a lower tier team. In their last two road games vs sub par competition the Suns and the Cavaliers the Kings came out of those tilts with DD victories and more of the same kind of one sided action looks to be on their agenda tonight .SACRAMENTO is 11-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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12-09-18 | Hornets v. Knicks +6 | 119-107 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The Knicks in their current form don't inspire bettors, but my projections estimate this line to be bloated, making the Hornets fade material in this spot. Also the Hornets are off a hard fought win vs Denver last time out. I watched part of that game and you could tell this Charlotte team was working hard and playing with intensity, which Im betting will have them in a natural letdown situation here today vs a side that not only does not inspire bettors, but their opposition as well. CHARLOTTE is 11-29 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Knicks are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall in this series and 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 here at home in MSG. Play NY Knicks to cover |
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12-09-18 | Jazz -3 v. Spurs | 97-110 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Im very surprised at how badly the San Antonio Spurs have performed this season, and how atrocious their defence has been overall. With that said, and from a matchup perspective when factoring in player vs player and system vs system, Utah matches up very well vs their hosts and get my support here based on some long standing strategies I've had success with over the years from a long term perspective. Note: The Jazz set a franchise record with 20 three-pointers made in Monday's win over San Antonio, shooting 60.6 percent (20-33) from beyond the arc on their way to their 34-point win. I know the Spurs showed some life last time out coming from behind to win 130-122 vs the Lakers, but they exerted a great deal of energy in that game, and could suffer the effects of that hard work here vs a physical Utah Jazz team.Note: The Spurs, haven't won back-to-back games since winning four straight in an eight-day span Oct. 27-Nov. 3 and Im betting they falter here today. Utah is off a 118-91 win vs Houston last time out. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 70-13 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average point differential clicking in at 9.8 pg. NBA Home underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 15-45 L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Utah to cover |
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12-09-18 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Pistons | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
The Pelicans and Anthony Davis come into Motown to play a banged up group of Pistons hobbled by injuries. Davis loves to play against the Pistons as is evident by averaging 30.4 points in 10 games against them, his highest career mark against any opponent. Im betting he will flourish again against a team that will have rotational issues with player personal adjustments expected. DETROIT is 4-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 19-38 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The Pistons are own a ugly 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS record in this series, including 1-5 SUATS the last six at home. Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover |
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12-08-18 | Wolves v. Blazers -2 | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
This game features Western Conference competitors vying for future play off positioning, and Im expecting a hard fought game with home court advantage being the difference maker for the home side Portland. I know the Wolves have played good ball since Jimmy Butler was traded, and that the Blazers have been less than consistent, but after playing some decent ball in their last trip to the hardwood allowing the Suns just 86 points in a victory. I expect the Blazers to use the momentum of that tilt to buoy them into this tilt. Note: PORTLAND is 9-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Portland is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 at home in this series. NBA Home favorites (PORTLAND) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 87-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland to cover |
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12-08-18 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -2 | 111-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Both these combatants played last night. The Lakers exhausted four starters upward of 36 minutes Friday night in a 133-120 loss at San Antonio that snapped a four-game winning streak, but now will have very little left in the tank tonight to face a physical hardworking Memphis team playing at home. Meanwhile, The Grizzlies, played no one more than 35 minutes and took a 107-103 win at New Orleans. The Grizzlies now have an advantage. Note: MEMPHIS is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 1-8 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. LA LAKERS are 19-34 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons NBA Underdogs vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning recorder 14-64 SU l/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 22-553ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 220.5 | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The Nets pulled out a 106-105 overtime win over the Eastern Conference-leading Toronto Raptors on Friday night, and will now be on tired legs, and be less than ready to run and gun vs the NY Knicks here tonight. Meanwhile, the Knicks off shooting 39.6 percent shooting from the field in the loss, are a team that is struggling mightily to be consistent offensively. What was horrendous was the Knicks allowed the Celtics to shoot better than 53% in that loss, and now HC Fizdale will demanding his squad play better D, and to be more methodical with their approach. The above combinations Im betting will see this total combined score stay on the low side of the total. NEW YORK is 18-8 UNDER when playing against a below .500 team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 206.3 ppg scored.BROOKLYN is 28-14 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.6 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 29-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers UNDER 222.5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Indiana is a big strong athletic team that bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and are allowing just 97.5 ppg at home this season. On the season they are ranked first in ppg allowed and 2nd in defensive rating. I know the the Kings run and in gun in with reckless abandon, but Indiana has the ability to dictate the pace here especially at home. The Pacers are ranked 26th in pace in the NBA and are methodical in their approach and nothing changes here today. INDIANA is 9-0 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 15-5 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.5 pig scored.INDIANA is 12-4 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored.INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER L/30 in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game with a combined average of 200.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 39-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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12-08-18 | Rockets v. Mavs +3 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Houston rolls in here looking for revenge for a loss they suffered to the Mavericks 128-108 at home last week, and despite of wanting revenge are not showing much of a winning touch or any consistency of late, losing 6 of their L/8 overall. In their current form they look less than viable road chalk. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of a dismal effort in their last trip to the court a 132-106 beat down at the hands of the Pelicans , have shown a historical propensity for a top tier bounce back effort, as is evident by HC Carlisle 10-1 ATS record off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival as the coach of DALLAS. Note: Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - vs. division opponents, off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 13-56 L/22 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons DALLAS is 10-2 ATS in home games this season. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 25-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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12-07-18 | Warriors v. Bucks UNDER 240 | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Both these teams can light the scoreboard up, but when quality teams like this get together, a more physical brand of basketball is not unusual. GOLDEN STATE is 29-11 UNDER L/40 in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 with a combined average score of 224.6 ppg scored. Also HC Kerr is 20-8 UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. Golden State allowed Milwaukkee to smash them 134-111 at home in their last meeting an now Im betting on them playing down lock down defence and responsible transitional basketball. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more 38-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-07-18 | Lakers v. Spurs OVER 225.5 | 120-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
San Antonio are on tired legs as they prepare to play their 6th game in 10 days and enter this game ranked 29th in the league in defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Lakers rank 9th in ppg in the league, averaging 113.1 ppg and 17th in ppg allowed at 111.1 ppg. When considering both sides current form, and system vs system analysis and player matchup trends, my projections estimate a high scoring affair that eclipses this total. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 OVER when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 233.8 ppg scored. These teams combined to put 235 ppg on the board in LA 2 days ato in their last meeting, which was a back and forth affair, and Im betting on more of the same action here tonight deep in the heart of Texas. Over is 6-0-1 in Spurs last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Friday games.Over is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a straight up loss.Over is 8-0 in Spurs last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. Western Conference.Over is 6-0-1 in Spurs last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 10-1-1 in Spurs last 12 overall.Over is 9-1-1 in Spurs last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 18-7-1 in Spurs last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 74-29 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-07-18 | Thunder v. Bulls +9 | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
The struggling Bulls lost 96-90 vs the Indiana Pacers last time out, but played well against a top tier team, and look to be ready clean things up with new HC Boylen on the side lines. The Bulls have now lost seven straight and 11th in their last 12 contests, but now coming off an extended road trip will be ready to compete here at home. Note:Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Bulls are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We all know how well the Thunder are playing, but covering 9 points here on the road, in what will be their 3rd game in 5 nights vs a very hungry team Im betting is asking for to much. With that said, there is value here taking the Bulls to cover. Donovan is 9-24 ATS in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. CHICAGO is 14-3 ATS in December games over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-32 ATS after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in December games are 19-58 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover |
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12-07-18 | 76ers v. Pistons +2.5 | 117-111 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
I like the way new HC Casey has the Pistons playing and despite coming off back to back losses including Milwaukee last time out, look like viable bets here vs a visiting Philadelphia team off a disappointing loss to the Toronto Raptors in their last game. Note: Pistons HC Casey is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached in his career. Meanwhile, the 76ers despite of being talented have lost 8 of their L/12 road games this season, and now in a letdown situation vs a Motown crew that has played their best ball at home posting a 9-4 record their in trouble, and false favorites in my opinion. Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Pistons are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 76ers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games.76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.76ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. 76ers are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 5-26 SU L/5 seasons for a 84% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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12-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz -2 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
The Utah Jazz recorded a season high for points in their last trip to the hardwood and Im betting they use the momentum of that explosive offensive effort to take out the visiting Houston Rockets on Thursday. The hard working never say die Jazz has won four of their last six games and converted on a franchise-record 20 3-pointers in Tuesday's 139-105 beat down of the visiting San Antonio Spurs. Look for more of same action here at home vs a Rockets side that has been highly inconsistent this season, and have lost 5 of their L/7 games overall. Rockets are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400 Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.Jazz are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - poor foul drawing team - attempting 24 or less free throws/game, poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or better on the season are 69-115 ATS for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah to cover |
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12-06-18 | Knicks v. Celtics OVER 217.5 | 100-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
Boston has been really lighting up the scoreboard of late, scoring 124,128, 118 in their L/3 trips to the floor. Tonight I expect they will continue to roll against a less than consistent NYK defence, that ranks 27th in D efficiency and 26th in points allowed ( 114.4 ppg). What Im betting is that for the Knicks to have no choice but the chase the Celtics and try to post some explosive offensive fire works of their own or be blown off the court in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair the eclipses this Total. My projections estimate that Boston will score within 115 to 121 points. Note: NEW YORK is 10-2 OVER when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 233.8 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-1 OVER when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. BOSTON is 16-4 OVER after 4 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons ands 11-2 OVER after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 28-8 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-05-18 | Spurs +8.5 v. Lakers | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
Im a gluten for punishment, as I take the Spurs plus the points here on the road again tonight vs LAL, after losing my recommended wager on them taking points last night in Utah. I know San Antonio does not inspire bettors in their current form, but according to my power rankings they matchup well vs the Lakers. Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Pacific.Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Lakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Lakers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest. NBA team (LA LAKERS) - revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 4-23 ATS L/22 seasons, for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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12-05-18 | Mavs +6.5 v. Pelicans | 106-132 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Mavericks enter this Bayou tilt having won nine of 11 overall after a 111-102 home victory against Portland on Tuesday. That gave them three wins in four games against West contenders in the last week and has them playing with confidence. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are banged up with a fair amount of walking wounded including starting point guard Elfrid Payton, and have now lost six of their last eight games. Note: Pelicans Nikola Miratic has also been off, and is suffering from an illness of some type. Advantage Mavericks. DALLAS is 29-16 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and is 15-7 ATS in the first half of the season this season.DALLAS is 13-5 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 24-2 ATS L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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12-05-18 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -1.5 | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
The matchup pairs the NBA's fourth-leading defense (Grizzlies, 103.1 points per game) against the third-leading offense (Clippers, 117.7). Im betting defense as well as home court advantage will be the difference maker here tonight. The Grizzlies are 17-0 SU/ATS when the line is within three points of pick and they are off a road loss in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers. Memphis Grizzlies ( LATE STEAM) |
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12-05-18 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 232 | 131-117 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Washington is on a two game win streak thanks to paying better attention to defence, and being much more careful in transition.WASHINGTON is 17-7 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Atlanta continues to struggle to score consistently, with the 30th ranked offensive efficiency despite of procuring the No 1 pace in the league . Im betting despite of Hawks trying to run and gun , their efficiency , thanks to missing one of their key offensive players Prince will see their flow thwarted as well as their total output. Meanwhile, the Wizards will remain steadfast in their wish to play a better controlled brand of basketball. What Im betting on here is a lower scoring game than the hefty number might indicate. WASHINGTON is 9-0 UNDER vs. struggling rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 22-7 UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-04-18 | Spurs +7.5 v. Jazz | 105-139 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
San Antonio came out of a lethargic state last time out by beating Portland 131-118 on Sunday. Im betting the momentum of their last victory will carry on into this game vs their host Utah, a team on tired legs after playing 6 games in 10 days. and overall have played 10 of their L/12 games on the road Note: NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in December games are just 36-69 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game where a team made 60% of their shots or better are 26-9 L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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12-04-18 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 208.5 | 90-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Bulls take the court against the Pacers, with associate head coach Jim Boylen taking over as head coach after Hoiberg was tied yesterday. QUOTE "You might see a bit different style of the offensive end as we get going," Boylen told reporters at his introductory press conference Monday. "You got to put your hand print on it and make it yours. But you have to realize there's a level of shock that the players have to deal with." END QUOTE The shock that Boylen is speaking about Im betting will see the Bulls play a more methodical game plan, that will help keep this game slower paced then their used to and will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers expect. With Indiana on 3 days rest after a west coast road trip I expect they will be fresh enough to play some strong D, something the coaching staff have been emphasizing of late. Chicago has gone under in 10 of their L/13 games. Indiana has gone under in 3 straight. CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 207.9 ppg scored.INDIANA is 10-1 UNDER in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 199.5 ppg going on the board.INDIANA is 20-5 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after playing 3 consecutive road games, playing with 2 days rest are 51-18 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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12-03-18 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 228 | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Washington topped New York 108-95 earlier this season at home, and Im expecting the same type of lower scoring affair once again . NEW YORK is 29-16 UNDER L/45 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 208.3 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 18-6 UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored. HC Fizdale is 12-2 UNDER in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 186.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 60-20 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 25-4 UNDER for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NYK/ WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%)are 24-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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12-03-18 | Warriors v. Hawks +11 | 128-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
While the defending champion Warriors have Steph Curry back in the lineup another key cog is still out as Draymond Green has missed the last eight games with a right toe sprain and also Alfonzo McKinnie has missed the last eight games with left foot soreness. Needless to say their still not at 100%. Note: The Warriors have not been very profitable for their backers of late as they are 2-9 ATS L/11 overall, and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 as favourites. Long termGOLDEN STATE is 55-69 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. Golden State won 110-103 when it hosted the Hawks on Nov. 13, and the young men from Atlanta proved they can hang with the big boys in that game, and Im betting they will primed to compete again here at home. Historical Trends value also favours this Hawks here as extreme lined home teams (double digit dogs or over 15 pt. favorites) off of a loss like the Hawks are 185-105-5 63.8% ATS with outliners included) Also teams averaging 103 or more ppg are 268-205-8 ATS 57% after a game where they were behind 15 points or more at the half. GOLDEN STATE is 0-8 ATS versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or less of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game) are 16-49 ATS L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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12-03-18 | Thunder v. Pistons +1 | 110-83 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
The Detroit Pistons are proving their a team that must be respected after taking out Golden State SU as 5 point home dogs last time out for their 5th straight home vicotry. Now their listed as underdogs again vs visiting Oklahoma City. The Motown reserves are standing tall, and showing the teams depth and Im betting they won;t bow down today, vs another deep team, especialy on their own court, where they have an edge. Thunder are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Detroit. CITY is 7-20 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite.OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-48 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game, in December games are just 96-176 L/22 seasons for go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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12-02-18 | Blazers +1 v. Spurs | 118-131 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Alot has changed in San Antonio, as they are now showing a lot of defensive holes and deficiencies. Popovich's team has seen the last two opponents combine to make 40 3-pointers in 95 attempts and they are off a ugly 128-89 loss to the Minnesota Wolves last time out. Im betting their fortunes wont get much better tonight vs a Portland side, that shot 53.6 percent while defeating the Spurs 121-108 at home on Oct. 20, showing their ability to matchup well vs the Spurs. I know the Spurs need to desperately bounce back, but like Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones have said before, You don't always get what you want. PORTLAND is 36-21 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. NBA team vs the money line (PORTLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Portland Blazers to cover |
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12-02-18 | Clippers v. Mavs +2.5 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The LA Clippers are a red hot 9-1 L/10 behind a balanced team effort, but their hosts Dallas are more than capable of cooling them off. I know the Mavs looked tired last time out, in a 114-103 road loss to the Lakers but now home again and on a couple of days rest should be more than ready to run and gun with the Clippers tonight, and notch a win and cover for us in this spot. DALLAS is 18-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and over have covered 11 of their L/16 and have played their best basketball at home where they sport a 8-2 SU/ATS record. Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Mavericks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Mavericks are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 games following a ATS loss.Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. DALLAS is 29-13 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Carlisle is 128-101 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DALLAS. Play on Dallas to cover |
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12-02-18 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 226 | 110-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Clippers come at you in waves both from the starters and the bench averaging 117.5 points per game, fourth in the league, and have been held to fewer than 100 only once. Im betting they force the Mavericks into a fast paced game via their 9th ranked pace. It must also be noted that the Clippers defence ranks 22nd in the NBA allowing 112+ ppg and Dallas behind an offence that averages more than 115 ppg at home should be successful converting against their soft defence regularly tonight. Everything is pointing to this being a high scoring affair. LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 OVER after a combined score of 235 points or more this season with a combined average score of 233.3 ppg scored. NBAVteams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 56-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-01-18 | Celtics v. Wolves UNDER 214.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
After Butler appeared in his last game with Minnesota on Nov. 9 at Sacramento, the Wolves were allowing 117.7 points per game on 47.4 percent shooting. In the last nine games, since Butler was traded the Wolves are now allowing just 99.3 points on 41.8 percent shooting. This is now a much better defensive team, and tonight against another top tier defensive team, the Boston Celtics ranked 2nd overall in defensive efficiency (104) in the league and 4th in ppg allowed 103.9 Im expecting a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total . MINNESOTA is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 212.9 ppg scored.BOSTON in their L/34 games after a huge blowout win by 30 or more have seen a combined average of 187.4 ppg scored. ( Celtics smashed Cleveland 128-95 last night and will now be on tired legs) Under is 7-1 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a ATS win.Under is 12-2 in Timberwolves last 14 overall.Over is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 Saturday games.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 home games.Under is 10-2 in Timberwolves last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-2 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 10-4 in Timberwolves last 14 games playing on 2 days rest. NBA team (BOSTON) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 50-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 190.6 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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12-01-18 | Warriors v. Pistons +5 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
The Pistons have won four straight, all at home and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover vs the Golden State Warriors here tonight even though previously injured Seth Curry is expected to return to the lineup for the Warriors. DETROIT is 10-2 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season. NBA Road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 17-53 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover |
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12-01-18 | Nets +7 v. Wizards | 88-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Washington looked lifeless last night in a blowout loss to the Sixers as they shot 40.2 percent (37 of 92) from the field, including 8 of 28 (28.6 percent) from 3-point range . Now on tired legs the Wizards of OZ come back to face a hard working Brooklyn team, that despite of also playing last night after taking Memphis to Double OT are better conditioned than the Wizards, and consistently show more fight. BROOKLYN is 30-17 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 16-5 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 19-6 ATS in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 20-8 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and is 13-4 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 14-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON is 8-19 ATS when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. NBA team (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 130 points or more against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more are 27-9 ATS L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NJ Nets to cover |
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11-30-18 | Nuggets v. Blazers -2 | 113-112 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Denver has been playing some very good hoops of late, winning 4 straight ,but the Trail Blazers at home are no pushovers, going 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Trail Blazers are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Northwest. They come into this game off a close win vs Orlando last time out ending a 3 game losing streak, which is a good thing as they are 8-0 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. PORTLAND is also 14-3 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons and is 21-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites (PORTLAND) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more re 29-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 9-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland to cover |
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11-30-18 | Mavs v. Lakers -3 | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are 2-7 SU on the road this season and will be trying for their first two-game winning streak on the same road trip since going 3-0 against the Pacers, New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder from Dec. 27-31, 2017. Im betting they don't get it , and that they also fail to cover .With that a said, Im expecting for the the Lakers to use the 104-96 win against the visiting Indiana Pacers on Thursday night as a confidence and momentum builder heading in this tilt. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdogs are 1-36 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors witht he average margin point differential coming by 10.7 ppg. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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11-30-18 | Jazz v. Hornets -1.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
This will be Utahs 4th game in 6 nights, and Im betting their on tired legs vs a side that can run the hell out of opponents, behind the 6th ranked offence. Charlotte is 8-3 at the Spectrum Center this season and have won four straight over Utah at home and get the nod again here on a short chalk line. From a SRS perspective: Utah is ranked 18th at -1.80 while, Charlotte is ranked 7th with a 3.80 SRS. ( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average) NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or better on the season against opponent after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are just 3-24 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 28-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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11-29-18 | Clippers -2 v. Kings | 133-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My power rankings make the LA Clippers the superior side in this matchup even though they are in the visitors role. The Clippers have won 11 straight games in this series and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Yes, I know the Clippers are playing back to backs , but after not exerting much energy in a 115-99 DD victory vs the Suns last night, they have more than enough left in the tank to dispose of the Kings. |
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11-29-18 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 223.5 | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
These two teams are explosive offensively to say the least. The Raptors rank 3rd in offensive output in the league averaging 117 ppg and 2nd in offensive efficiency, behind the 11th fastest pace. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors, rank 6th in offence averaging 116 ppg and 3rd in offensive efficiency, behind the leagues 15th ranked pace . there outputs and pace were slowed for a while as they got used to playing with super star Curry, but now their picking up their speed and play Dubs ball. The Warriors do have some key injuries with Draymond Green and Step curry, out, but lately the team is looking more cohesive, and playing pretty good attack orientated ball , scoring 125,117,116 in consecutive games and will have no choice but to push the ball up court quickly vs a dangerous quick strike or be blown off the court.The Raptors have lost eight consecutive meetings with the Warriors, and knowing this Im betting they will be all business and ready to really lay down beating, and like I said above, the Warriors will have to respond. This will make Im betting for a high scoring affair that goes over this offered number. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 62-24 OVER L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 230.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 68-28 OVER for a 71% conversion rate for bettors L/22 seasons with a combined average of 230.1 ppg going on the board. Play on OVER |
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11-28-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 242.5 | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
I have watching this Totals number for over night action and now this morning and Im ready to act and recommend we take an under stance. Washington stayed at home and defeated the Houston Rockets, 135-131, in overtime Monday night. At the same time New Orleans was struggling in a 124-107 home loss to the Boston Celtics. Both need to correct deficient defensive issues , and both are working hard to do so especially the Pelicans HC Gentry, who has finally realized running and gunning out of the gate has been a catastrophe for a team that has lost 4 straight. The Pelicans have allowed an average of 36.3 first-quarter points in the last three games. HC Gentry response is as follows: "If you do that," Gentry said, "more than likely you're going to be playing uphill for the other 36 minutes. We've got to get off to better starts so that when we do go on a run, we're creating separation and not just pulling even." END QUOTE. Look for New Orleans to be more methodical in the first quarter tonight, and start this game concentrating on playing better D in transition, which will result in a lower scoring game overall than many might expect. WASHINGTON is 9-1 UNDER L/10 off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 12-3 UNDER in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 27-3 UNDER L/22 seasons with a combined average of 207.8 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-28-18 | Jazz v. Nets +4 | 101-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah's been struggling having lost 4 of their L/5 and now on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights. Im betting the Jazz will once again have a hard time getting by a under rated Brooklyn side that is fairly well rested and playing at home . Note: UTAH is 17-33 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. BROOKLYN I know the Nets do not inspire bettors, but from a matchup perspective according to my power rankings have an edge here on this side number. Brooklyn is 21-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 4-22 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 216 | 85-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Los Angeles will take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Its interesting that my own projections estimate that both these teams will score more than 105 points. Note:DENVER is 41-4 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.8 ppg going on the board.LA LAKERS are 43-9 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 235.5 ppg scored. Im basing tonights OVER call on my own estimations. The Lakers have averaged 114.4 ppg on offence on the road this season, while allowing 111.4 ppg . Meanwhile, Denver has scored an average of 113.8 ppg at home. Play OVER |
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11-27-18 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Indiana is in top form and are off clobbering back to back opponents, and Im betting they still have enough left in the tank to get by a young Phoenix team that despite of flashing some brilliance on occasion still don't know how to win consistently. This is not a good matchup for the home side Suns. PHOENIX is 18-32 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 season with a average point differential off 11+ ppg. LATE STEAM NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 27-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 11.6 ppg. Play on Indiana to cover |
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11-27-18 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +4.5 | 122-114 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Memphis after a 5 game win streak, has lost their last two games ,and lost their last time out as home chalk to NY Knicks. Its not uncommon for teams deemed superior to their opposition to take nights off in the /NBA and also overlook their opponents , which is what Im betting happened to the Grizzlies in that game vs a up-trending Knicks team. Now focusedI expect a usually hardworking Memphis group to give top tier visitor the Raptors a fight for the W behind the leagues top defence. Im betting on the Grizzlies methodical style of play to interrupt and ply havoc on the free flowing Raptors, and make life difficult for them. NBA Home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 62-30 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - average to below average defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 31-61 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate. The average point differential of those games clicked in at 3.2 ppg, which adds credence to a cover call of 3.5 points or more with the Grizzlies. Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover |
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11-26-18 | Spurs v. Bulls OVER 213 | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
On Nov 11 the Spurs put 133 points on the board in a fast paced win vs the Chicago Bulls ( ranked 23 in ppg allowed 113) . In the return matchup Im betting on the Spurs using a high energized attack to try to duplicate the last games successful results, which in turn will make for a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. I know the Bulls are having problems scoring, but Im betting their going to be forced into chasing a team that matches up well again them or be blown of the court and for this Total to be eclipsed. Note: San Antonio owns the 21st ranked Defensive efficiency in the league and not longer is a stalwart defensive team. ( Defensive Rating is for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions) SAN ANTONIO is 12-2 OVER after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 218.7 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 27-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored with no score going below the 213 point plateau. Play OVER |
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11-26-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Wizards | 131-135 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
The Rockets after winning 5 straight games have suffered back to back losses in the first 2 games of their current 3 game road trip. The finale of those 3 away games comes tonight vs a very inconsistent Washington Wizards team, and gives the Rockets a solid chance at getting back into the win column and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover . |
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11-25-18 | Knicks v. Grizzlies UNDER 208.5 | 103-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
The Knicks have been offensively better of late, but their underlying offensive problems, are Im betting still going to be an issue , especially today vs a physical and methodical Grizzlies team that works hard on grinding teams down and disturbing their flow. The Knicks are averaging 108.9 ppg ranking 29th in the league, and a slower pace that ranks 20th overall. Meanwhile, the the Grizzlies rank 30th in pace and 1st and Defence, and 30th in offence. The above combinations Im betting will result in lower scoring tilt that does not eclipse this total. Note:New York has not scored more than 100 points in any of its previous seven trips to Memphis and Im betting on a repeat performance here in this spot.MEMPHIS is 25-12 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 203.3 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 196.6 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 193.6 ppg scored, with NYK averaging just 96.6 ppg in offense. Play UNDER |
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11-25-18 | Knicks v. Grizzlies -8 | 103-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
The Knicks are just 6-14 start but have come to life in their last two games, which featured a surprising win at Boston and close home winner over New Orleans. But now Im betting on the Knicks current gravy train to crash abruptly in the unfriendly confines of Memphis where they will face a grinding opponent that can make life difficult for a rebuilding young team like the Knicks. It must be noted that the NYK has lost their L/7 games here and and have not scored more than 100 points in any of those games and Im betting that status quo of that trend continue today . It must be noted that Memphis 6-0 ATS L/6 at home as a favourite and play their best ball right here at home. NEW YORK is 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with the average deficit clicking in at more than 12 ppg. Play on Memphis to cover |
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11-25-18 | Magic v. Lakers -8 | 108-104 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Orlando Magic (9-10) beat the visiting Lakers 130-117 on Nov. 17 to end their season-long four-game winning streak which is the Lakers only loss in their L/8 games. Now with revenge on board I expect the Lakers to come out here with all guns blazing in . a pay back event vs a Orlando team that has fallen back down to earth after a 3 game win streak and have lost their L/2 games by DDs deficits. Note: The past three opponents the Lakers have faced are averaging 95. LA LAKERS are 13-3 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 5-31 L/5 seasons with the average combined score deficit clicking in at 14.7 ppg. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 90 points or less are 63-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Lakers to cover |
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11-24-18 | Bulls v. Wolves UNDER 217 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Minnesota is playing better without the traded Jimmy Butler but their offence does not have the explosiveness it did with him in the lineup. It must be noted that MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER in November games this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Chicago is struggling offensively ,and as a result has gone under in 9 of their L/12 and have been held under 99 points in 7 of their L/9 games. the Bulls played last night scored 96 point sin a loss, and are on tired legs here and could easily find themselves muted offensively again. Everything points to this being another game where both teams keep a even pace and for the total combined score to stay on the low side of the number. The Timberwolves have gone under in 5 straight as a favorite with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Saturday games. Under is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%). are 51-19 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-24-18 | Pelicans v. Wizards +1 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
The Washington Wizards in their current form may not inspire bettors but the tonight in desperation mode Im betting they get it together on home court vs a New Orleans team that struggles on the road (2-8 SU), and could be playing with Anthony Davis tonight because of a hip injury. If Davis does play he will be less than 100% making the Pelicans fade material. Their are alot of ebbs and flows in the NBA , and Washington is showing some proverbial high tide action entering this game after a come from behind win vs the LA Clippers last time out. NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS off a road loss this season which happened against the lowly Knicks last time out. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - good pressure defensive team - forcing 16 or more turnovers/game, on Saturday games are 47-15 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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11-23-18 | Heat v. Bulls +3 | 103-96 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami enters this game in Chicago with the league's third-worst shooting percentage at 43.5, only ahead of Boston and Detroit. the Miami Heat are really struggling and should not be favorites in their current form on the road against any NBA team , not even the rebuilding Chicago Bulls.The most recent instance of Miami's horrendous play occurred Tuesday in a 104-92 loss to the Brooklyn Nets that pushed its home losing streak to five games. The Heat shot 36 percent and missed 15 of 19 shots in the fourth quarter when the Nets outscored them by a 30-15 margin. Thats just plain ugly, and the return of veteran senior citizen Dwayne Wade Im betting wont be enough to buoy this team to victory and more importantly a cover. The Bulls are off a win last time outs nd will build on that momentum here at home vs the Heat. MIAMI is 13-28 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 17-4 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Play on Chicago Bulls to cover |
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11-23-18 | Wizards v. Raptors OVER 229 | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Washington Post reported about on-court confrontations between John Wall and Jeff Green, and between Bradley Beal and Austin Rivers at a practice last week and that after those incidents Wall swore at Brooks and Beal sounded off to general manager Ernie Grunfeld. This report quantifies what is obvious and that is that this Wizards team is in disarray, and playing wide open undisciplined basketball. Tonight I expect Torontos vaunted offence ranked 5th in the league behind the 10th fastest pace to pound the stumbling Wizards 29th ranked defence mercilessly while Washington behind 10th ranked offence and 7th fastest pace will have no choice but to chase and respond in run and gun fashion or be blown off the court. This Im betting results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this number. TORONTO is 8-0 OVER in home games after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 26-5 OVER L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-23-18 | Rockets -4 v. Pistons | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Ive got a stubborn streak when it comes to sticking to my long term handicapping methods, and with that said, Im going to back Houston team that I have pegged as the superior team in this matchup with Detroit. Last time out I recommended we lay the heavy lumber with the Rockets at home in the first of back to back meetings with these teams, and I failed on my assessments that night, as the Pistons played the Rockets tough in Texas and covered as 9 point underdogs losing by just 2 points 126-124 . My power rankings however, suggest that the Rockets are a viable bet here at -4 chalk, and Im laying down my cash on them again. I live and die by my methods, and lose or win today will continue down the same path, even though some turbulence may effect the smoothness of my trip. You have too remember that the young men form Motown were trailing by 10 points going into the 4th quarter of the last game, and than amazingly scored 41 points to to put pressure of the Rockets. Im betting that unbelievable shooting performance wont be on todays agenda and that Houston gets the win and cover as they play a complete game. HOUSTON is 22-9 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons and is 21-8 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 season. HOUSTON is 32-18 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasonsHOUSTON is 13-3 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home underdogs (DETROIT) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 9-37 ATS L/22 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Houston Rockets |
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11-21-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -1 | 123-95 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
Golden State suffering the loss of super star Steph Curry to injury are looking to snap their 3 game losing streak after losing to the San Antonio Spurs, 104 - 92 last time out and will come out here primed to compete and rebound vs Oklahoma City tonight on their own home court. The Thunder are also off a loss, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.With reports out of Oakland supporting the return of Draymond Green, and the impending battle of former team mates Durant and Westbrook I like the Golden State Warriors to grab a victory here vs a Thunder team exhibiting some key areas of weakness as they struggle with three point percentage ( Ranked 30th), free throw percentage ( Ranking 27th) and assists per game (Ranked 26th).Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.Thunder are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.Thunder are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Golden State. GOLDEN STATE is 42-23 ATS in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 40-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Golden State to cover |
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11-21-18 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Spurs | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Memphis is a very pesky team that plays a strong physical brand of basketball and are leading the NBA in scoring defense (100 ppg) and turnover differential (-4.6) while ranking second in steals (9.8), Their quickly becoming the type of team, that other sides around the league don't look forward to facing. The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, and could induce a night mare for a Spurs team that is struggling defensively as was evident last time out when they allowed the Pelicans to shoot 57.8 percent from the floor in a 140-126 loss. Add to that the Grizzlies star Conely after being injured last year, is rounding back into super star gear, and hitting 38.7 percent from 3-point range this month . This team feeds off Conely's energy and with Grizzlies C Marc Gasol suddenly back in top form hitting on three straight double-doubles while averaging 17.7 points and 10.4 rebounds this month the Grizzlies are a dangerous underdog here tonight. Spurs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest.Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 46-16 SU L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover |
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11-21-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves -1.5 | 103-101 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
After a fast start to their season, Denver has now lost 6 of their L/7 games, and things don't look to get much better here as they are on tired legs as the Nuggets prepare to play their 4th game in a week and third straight road tilt. Meanwhile, Minnesota had a three game win streak ended last time out by a pesky Memphis team. but the Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games where they play their best hoops.Wolves have a 7-2 SU home record this season, while the Nuggets are 3-4 SU on the road. In their four most recent meetings last season the Timberwolves beat the Nuggets 3 out of 4 times winning both games at home by an average of 4.5 points and another similar outcome is a high probability outcome considering the current form of both sides and matchup discrepancies favoring the Wolves especially from the land of the downtown trey where the Wolves excel (37.3%). Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. MINNESOTA is 39-21 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 seasons.MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 57-15 79% L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind . Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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11-21-18 | Pistons v. Rockets -9 | 124-126 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Houston has suddenly come to life and are on a 4 game win streak averaging 115.8 points per contest during its current run and on defence have held 6 of their L/8 opponents to 99 points or less.The Rockets now operating in optimal mode host a Detroit team that despite of winning 4 of their L/5 are just 3-4 on the road this season , and not equipped to match firepower with a Rockets team that are second in both downtown 3s made(14.3) and attempted (42.5) per game. DETROIT is 3-13 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with the average point differential clicking in at 11.9 ppg. NBAHome favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 64-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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11-20-18 | Blazers v. Knicks +8 | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Tonight we have a tilt at Madison Square Garden, that has mismatch written all over it and the lines-makers have followed suit by making the Portland Trail Blazers 8 point road chalk, vs their hosts the New York Knicks this Tuesday. However from a contrarian perspective, Im betting taking points with the home dog is prudent bankroll expanding choice vs a Portland team on tired legs as they play their 4th road game in less than a week. I know its not easy backing a rebuilding /struggling team like the Knicks that continue to give younger players minutes, but from a advantage players viewpoint, this line is slightly bloated and offers value according to my power rankings numbers. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Brooklyn a team the this lost 4 of their L/5 overall is not the same team without injured G Caris LeVert in the lineup . He leads the Nets in scoring (18.4 points per game) but its expected out for net fe months. Now they will go against a very hungry and rested Miami team , desperate to get a win, after getting hammered by the LA Lakers on Sunday night ( 113-97) for their fourth straight home loss. The media is attacking the team for their lack of grit, and believe me say pros do not like to be embarrassed and will be hell bent on getting some redemption tonight. MIAMI is 29-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, on Tuesday nights 110-23 SU L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average margin point differential going by 8+ ppg. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 222 | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Orlando enters this game with a hot hand from the field converting at more than 50% with their FGs in their L/3 games, but in the past this has been a signal for downturn in offensive efficiency and production as is evident by the following trend: ORLANDO is 13-3 UNDER in home games after 3 straight games where they made 50% of their shots with a combined average of 193 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Toronto enters this game off a fine defensive performance last time out, allowing the Bulls just 83 points, as they paid alot of attention to their stopping abilities in transition . That stronger defensive performance stemmed from criticism they received after suffering a previous loss to the Celtics, that saw some in the media call them soft defensively and portray them as reverting back to their old ways under former HC Casey. The truth is the Raptors are a solid defensive team ranking 6th in the league in efficiency, and With that said, Im expecting more of the same stopping action from the Raptors in the spot vs a Magic team ranked 21st in offense in the league behind a 21 st ranked pace.. TORONTO is 17-4 UNDER in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.1 ppg going on the board. ORLANDO is 24-12 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg getting scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (TORONTO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 38-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-19-18 | Clippers v. Hawks +7.5 | 127-119 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
The Hawks are struggling (3-13) as they enter this game on a seven-game losing streak on Monday when they start a four-game home stand against the Los Angeles Clippers (10-5) at State Farm Arena. . Thanks to their ineptness and inability to garner wins of late, we are getting an exaggerated line to bet into with the home dog Hawks. I know the Clippers are playing well and we have a matchup of teams playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but desperation and being back on their own home court after a 4 game road trip against strong teams ( Indiana, Golden State, Denver, Lakers) makes the Hawks battle tested and a viable wagering option as they play in desperation mode. LA CLIPPERS are 18-34 ATS L/52 as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 48-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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11-19-18 | Celtics -2.5 v. Hornets | 112-117 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings and head to head matchup systems and player vs players analysis, the Celtics matchup very well vs the Charlotte Hornets. CHARLOTTE is 3-13 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 vs Charlotte. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (33% or less ), in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 60-106 ATS for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors over the L/21 season. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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11-18-18 | Warriors +3 v. Spurs | 92-104 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
I know the Warriors played last night and are on tired legs as they embark on their 5th game in 7 days and I also know that Golden State on a current 2 game slide after last nights loss to Dallas will be without Steph Curry and Draymond Green tonight in this tilt vs San Antonio. However, despite of that my matchup rankings data base suggest even with the injuries, the well conditioned and deep Warriors are capable of pulling off a win here as a road underdog vs a San Antonio side that has lost their L/3 trips to the hardwood and 5 of their L/6 overall. It must also be noted that NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GOLDEN STATE) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are a positive long term betting situation as they are 54-20 SU L/22 seasons. Also Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are a bankroll expanding 53-18 ATS L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Golden State to cover |
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11-17-18 | Warriors v. Mavs +3.5 | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are playing top tier basketball at the moment as is evident by on their three-game winning streak and overall have won four of five trips to the hardwood. Thanks in part to a strong effort on defense. Against Utah the Mavs held the Jazz to 31.3 percent field goal shooting after keeping Chicago and Oklahoma City under 40 percent in the previous two tilts. Tonight against a banged up Golden State team that looks out of sync of late and playing without Steph Curry, I feel the Mavs have an advantage here as underdogs . on their own home floor. DALLAS is 35-18 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 28-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 18-8 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Warriors are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 12-38 ATS 5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 59-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover |
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11-17-18 | 76ers v. Hornets -2.5 | 122-119 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The well rested Charlotte Hornets will be very ready to take down a Philadelphia 76ers off a gruelling game against the Utah Jazz last night. The Sixers have played well at home this season , but are just 2-7 on the road, and are fade material in this spot vs a side that was embarrassed by Cleveland last time out . But now on 3 days rest Charlotte will be out looking for redemption and also for revenge for a 133-132 OT loss last week on the road to the Sixers. That game showed me that the Hornets matchup well against their opponents as did a 105-103 loss in their first meeting here in Charlotte. CHARLOTTE is 13-0 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - after 1 or more consecutive unders, good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are 64-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days is 25-6 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential clicking in at 6.3 ppg. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 45-16 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking at 6 points. Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover |
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11-16-18 | Knicks +10.5 v. Pelicans | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
New Orleans at one point in the early part of the season lost 6 straight games, and then won three straight. Two of those wins were vs struggling Phoenix and Chicago, so Im not going to give them a great deal of accolades. The final win came against a Raptors team that looked exhausted and did not look themselves. Than last time out the Pelicans lost again, and did not look cohesive vs the Minnesota Wolves on the road. I can't put my finger on it but HC Gentry lead squad just does not seem to make all the moving parts work in coordination, with Defence, being their key problem point as they rank 27th in the league allowing an average of 115.8 ppg. I know tonights opponent the New York Knicks will not inspire bettors, but their desperate for a win and or to even stay competitive after 3 straight DD losses, and will be hell bent on not being embarrassed again. The Pelicans in their current form just do not seem like 10 points plus chalk, not even against a struggling Knicks team. With that said, Ill take the points with the lesser of two evils. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS is 2-12 ATS in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season. NBA team (NEW YORK) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG), after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more are 49-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on NY Knicks to cover |
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11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics -1.5 | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Two teams vying for supremacy on the Eastern Conference go head to head tonight as the Toronto Raptors visit the Boston Celtics tonight.Toronto started their campaign 12-1 but have suffered back to back losses at home to the Pelicans and Pistons and are just 3-2 on the road . Truth is the Raptors did not pace themselves out of the gate, and could easily be in pause mode, as they recuperate from exerting to much energy. Meanwhile, Boston has not always looked consistent in the early going this season, but are still a fine team, especially in the defensive end of the court where they rank 2nd in the league allowing just 101.9 ppg. Tonight Im betting their D, and home court advantage will be the difference maker in what Im also betting will be a Celtics win and cover. Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 4-22 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more 61-11 SU L/5 season for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics |
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11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 214 | 116-123 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors are front runners for a Eastern Conference championship, and when these two hard nosed competitors meet this evening, Im expecting a very physical affair that will base alot of action on each team focusing on transitional defence. The Raptors rank 9th in defensive efficiency while the Celtics rank 1st in Defensive efficiency. Im betting on a post season type affair that will not be very free flowing and a end result of a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. None of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed the total. TORONTO is 16-5 UNDER in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up recordNBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 4-0 UNDER this season and 36-14 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-16-18 | Jazz +3 v. 76ers | 107-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers just do not look cohesive of late, and now with big ego Jimmy Butler in the lineup after a trade with Minnesota might still have problems going forward. Yes, I know how talented Butler is, (all you have to do is ask him) but there are reasons why he didn't want to be in Minnesota and its not because of the cold weather .In my humble opinion Butler at this point in his career is not a team player, and Im betting at least for the foreseeable future will be a negative influence on Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid and how well this team plays as a group especially in key situations. Time will tell if Im wrong, but for tonight Im betting a Jazz team off an embarrassing effort last time out vs Dallas, shooting just 31.3 percent from the field and 17 percent from 3-point range, will be primed for a bounce back redemption filled effort vs a over rated 76ers team . ***It must be noted that Utah owns a +0.11 SRS while, Philadelphai has -0.58 SRS. ( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average) UTAH is 43-27 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. 76ers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.NBA Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. are just 11-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets will bang heads tonight in what promises to be a physical affair. The Warriors will be without the often injured Step Curry but are expected to have Draymond Green back in the lineup but may not play a great deal becasue of a toe issue, which should slow their offensive production and see them more concentrated on sound defensive play. The Warriors as per news reports and obvious on court confrontations among themselves , are showing us what its like when this many big egos are put into the same dressing room. But when the game starts their still a team to contend with and Im betting come out here and play hard as a team. Meanwhile, the Rockets thanks to keeping pretty boy Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines , are a more rugged team , behind a under rated defense continues to improve as is evident by a 6th overall ppg defesnive ranking and a methodical calculated pace that is 29th in the league. HOUSTON is 12-2 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.5 ppg going on the board.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 73-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-14-18 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 225 | 117-126 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Portland has gone under the total in 7 of their L/8 games thanks to playing a top tier brand of defence, that has seen them hold 4 different opponents to 93 points or less. The Blazers own the leagues 5th best D ,both in points allowed 106.2 and efficiency 105.9 and will primed to grind the free wheeling Lakers down in this spot and not allow them flow. This Im betting takes a more than enough points off this totals number to seen this score stay on the low side of the digits. Note: Lakers games have had some bloated Totals attached to them which has resulted in 7 of their L/8 games and and 5 in row failing to eclipse the total . The L/7 meetings here in LA between these two teams have stayed under the total. Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 overall.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 3-0-1 in Lakers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0-1 in Lakers last 5 home games.Under is 6-0-1 in Lakers last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Lakers last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2-1 in Lakers last 8 Wednesday games. Portland is 13-4 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 23-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.8 ppg. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 46-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 49-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-14-18 | Grizzlies +10 v. Bucks | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Milwaukee has played some great ball this season , but lately have alternated wins and losses during their L/6 games, and are of a win last time out. They are getting alot of accolades, but this season is still early and my own rankings and stats analysis show some regression. Meanwhile, Memphis enters this game a little banged up , but its mostly depth players and as long as Conley remains healthy and on the court the other Grizzlies as a whole can feed of his energy. From a matchup perspective Memphis is not an easy team to play against, as they sport the leagues best defence behind the leagues slowest pace and Im betting they can cause problems for a team like the Bucks that needs to run a free flowing system to play at an optimal level. With that said, Im betting we have value taking points here with the visitors. Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bucks are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. MILWAUKEE is 18-45 ATS L/63 as a favorite of 10 or more points. HC Budenholzer is 3-13 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive non-conference games in all games he has coached. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 3-24 ATSL/5 seasons for a go against 85% for bettors. Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover |
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11-13-18 | Hawks +12.5 v. Warriors | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Golden State played last night in LA vs the Clippers . That game went into to OT, as they lost by a 121-116 count. Now on tired legs as they prepare to play on back to back nights and with the added inconvenience of being without the often injured Curry in the lineup the Warriors will not be as ferocious as usual, and could easily be over looking this lower level opponent. When your a team like the Warriors that has had so much successes in this league of late, its easy to become a little bit to comfortable . Meanwhile, Im betting on rising star Trae Young to come out flying and inspired tonight in an attempt to upend the champs. Im really expecting two different energy levels here in this spot and getting points to eventually be golden. NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game) are 16-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. |
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11-13-18 | Rockets +4.5 v. Nuggets | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are suddenly struggling for the first time this season and despite of being (9-4) have lost three straight and two in a row at home and has had trouble with energy levels and consistency of late which culminated in allowing their opposition to hit on 57%+ of their FG last time out. . Meanwhile, Houston showed some life last time out, posting a impressive 115-103 victory over a very deep Indiana team. Im betting on the Nuggets issues to continue here tonight and for the Rockets to build off of their last effort. HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 4-14 ATS in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Houston has won and covered their L/3 trips to the Mile High City. NBA Road teams (HOUSTON) - struggling team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or more on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 30-8 ATS L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Houston Rockets to cover |
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11-12-18 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 230.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
The Clippers' own a defensive-minded backcourt buoyed by Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. This duo and other parts of this team were put together, in part, to deal with explosive backcourts like the one from the they will play tonight. However, that talented backcourt of the Warriors has some injuries, and could possibly be without Curry tonight . Tonight Im betting , that the Clippers HC Head coach Doc Rivers will use two full rotations of players, to be fresh enough to be physical and control the Warriors speed. This should mute some flow from this game, and thus scratch a few points off the expected combined score, in a game Im betting that will result in a under wager cashing for us in this spot. Under is 22-8 in Warriors last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 vs. Western Conference.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 games following a straight up win.GOLDEN STATE is 29-10 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 117-85 UNDER in home games after a non-conference game with the combined average score of 197.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 80-49 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 198.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 38-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216 ppg going n the score board. Play UNDER |
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11-12-18 | Nets v. Wolves -2.5 | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
With the negative influence of Jimmy Butler saga gone now after he was traded to the 76ers on the weekend, the Minnesota Wolves should feel like they now have a second life, and Im betting will be energized and thrive here tonight vs the Brooklyn Nets. Yes, the Nets are up-trending, but are on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and off a extremely exhausting and demanding game vs the Warriors last time out. . The Nets are now in the unenviable position of playing against a pumped up team that needs desperately to turn their season around after a ugly 0-5 road trip. MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 2-12 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Minnesota.NBA team (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 70-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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11-12-18 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 126-110 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
The Raptors can run and gun behind an explosive offense , but their defence is under rated and currently ranked 8th in DEF Rating efficiency (106.7 ppg) behind the 10th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, in the early part of this season were seen as a all out one attacking team, that trys to outscore their opponents on the run. But their last two wins have been predicated by playing top tier brand of defence, that kept those opponents at 99 points or less. Im betting the success of those above mentioned outings and victories will see Gentrys troops alot more focused on playing top tier defence in a unfriendly road environment against a dangerous opponent. Look for an expect a more muted total combined score than the linesmakers number might suggest. Under is 4-1 in Pelicans last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a 216combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board. Play on the UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Celtics v. Blazers -2.5 | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics successes in recent years has been their ability to play top tier defence, but recently especially on this current road trip they look to be struggling .As a result the Celtics have lost 3 of their L/4 games and have failed to cover 4 straight games. Meanwhile, Portland their hosts tonight are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and have won 3 straight and 6 of their L/7 behind some solid two way basketball that has result in allowing 3 of their L/7opponents to score 93 points or less. With that said, Im recommending we lay the short lumber here with the Blazers. PORTLAND is 35-23 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. HC Stotts is 11-1 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more as the coach of PORTLAND. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 26-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average point differential clicking in at 12.8 ppg. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 29-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 14.9 ppg. Play on Portland to cover |
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11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets OVER 223 | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Milwaukee comes at their opponents with a run and gun take no prisoners attitude, and essentially force any all opponents to partake with some offensive fireworks of their own this or be blown off the court. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and 2nd in offence (121 .7 ppg) in the league a even though the Nuggets operate at a slower pace, Im betting they will have to up their speed or like I said get crushed by a high flying group. The Nuggets are on a couple days rest so they will be ready . One last thing, I know the thin air of Denver, can take its toll on visiting squads, but the Bucks are one of the leagues best conditioned teams and should have no problems with energy despite of playing last night. The L/2 meetings (lat season) have seem combined scores of 253 and 257 poinss going on the board. DENVER is 47-24 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-11-18 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | 115-89 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
When you first look at this matchup would might assume that the Magic are the superior side, and deserve to be slight favourites here on the road, because of there better play of late as compared to their struggling counterparts. But according to my power rankings charts, and the Orlandos history of ATS futility I feel we have value on a picket line with the ver hungry home team. I know the Kncisk lost last night to Toronto, but I liked their offensive flow in a 128 -112 loss and feel like it could carry into this game. Note The Magic are 11-23 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Orlando took out the reeling Wizards last time out at home in Central Florida , but are just 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. Since 1989, sub win percent than opponent underdogs off of a win against a team that just played on the road are just 58-97-5 ATS/61-120 SU in regular season when the final margin of their last game was smaller than the margin going into the fourth quarter. (Orlando) Orlando HC Clifford is 9-23 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in all games. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 5-24 SU L/22 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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11-11-18 | Pacers +2.5 v. Rockets | 103-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
The Indiana Pacers currently rank very high on my power ranking charts, while Houston is sinking like a rock, and in their current form look very much like fade material. The Rockets are talented but their seems to be an issue with flow and chemistry right now. Add to that their on tired legs in this spot, after finishing off an extended 5 game road trip that resulted in them losing their last two tilts including one last night in San Antonio . This is actually the Rockets 2nd back to back game scenario in the L/9 days, so Im betting their going to be exhausted. Meanwhile, the Pacers despite of losing 2 of their L/3 games are a deep team that works at an accelerated pace, and Im betting the Rockets wont be able to handle their speed in their current form.I NDIANA is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasonsINDIANA is 23-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.D'Antoni is 8-21 ATS in home games in non-conference games as the coach of HOUSTON. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate witht he average point differntial clicking in a 6.4 ppg. Play on Indiana to cover |
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11-11-18 | Hornets +2.5 v. Pistons | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
The Hornets have consistently proven their not an easy out , as was the case in their last trip to the hardwood vs the Philadelphia 76ers on the road as they lost a heart breaking 133-132 OT decision. Now with rest they come back out looking to rebound vs a inconsistent Detroit team, that just recently ended a 5 game losing streak with a pair of wins vs lower tier teams Orlando and Atlanta. Tonight against this run and gun and high energy Charlotte group Im betting this Motown crew is at a disadvantage. DETROIT is 19-35 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - poor three point shooting team ( 33% or less ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 23-73 SU lL22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. |
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11-10-18 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 240 | 101-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a Kings team that will be playing the second night of a home back-to-back games, and Im expecting them to be more tempered in their approach tonight on tired legs. The Kings last 4 home games have stayed under the Total, and it must be noted that SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams like the Lakers - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg on the scoreboard. I know the Lakers on a couple days rest should be fresh, and ready to run but with addition of veteran Tyson Chandler into the Lakers lineup I expect the way the Lakers play will be more balanced with a greater respect and attention placed on playing good defence. The Lakers early season defensive inefficiencies and their explosive offensive weapons have seen recent games see high totals attached to their tilts, and as a result these over compensations have seen 4 straight games stay under the total, and tonight Im betting this Total is also to high. SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons and overall is 24-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 season with the combined average score of the home games clicking in at 205.8 ppg. SACRAMENTO in their L/8 home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games have seen a combined average score of 199.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Rockets -2 v. Spurs | 89-96 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Houston despite of their talent level are not playing up to expectations, but from a systems matchup perspective have an edge here even though they are playing in enemy territory but still not far from home. The Rockets were hammered in their last trip to the hardwood, snapping a 3 game winning streak , losing to the Thunder 98-80. . That loss came in their 4th straight road game, and the team as a whole looked pooched. Now with some rest and back in Texas the Rockets will be out looking for redemption, for that last loss which gives us a motivated team to back. HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS L/9 in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Note: I didn't like the way the Spurs looked last time out in a 95-88 loss to Miami. Coach Popovich essentially insulted his group calling them soft. Im not sure that will ignite them if thats truly what he thinks they are. I personally feel that Pops might have something here, as the Spurs don't seem to like to work inside. The Spurs shot a ugly 33% in that loss to the Heat, but made 13 of 32 from beyond the arc preferring to do their work from the outside. In what the lines makers think will be a closely contested affair, Ill take what I for at least now perceive to be tougher clutch team ( Rockets) HOUSTON is 18-8 ATS L/26 as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets took three of the four meetings from the Spurs last season. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 75-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Houston to cover |
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11-10-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies UNDER 210 | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
The Sixers played an intense game against Charlotte last night, winning 133-132 in OT and will now be playing their 5th game since Nov 3. Needless to say the Sixers should be on tired legs and in not way or shape ready to run here tonight and will have to rely to an extent on their defence to be competitive which is ranked 10th in the league in efficiency Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are back to being a team that was feared prior to last season, behind a top tier D , as is evident by having held 5 diff opponents under 97 points and rank No.1 in the league in points allowed (100.6 ) and 30th in pace . Their 29th ranked offense tells a story of a methodical side, that bases it successes and failures on defence and tonight Im betting nothing changes. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.6 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA in their L/40 in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less have seen a combined average score of 195.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS/PHILADELPHIA ) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-09-18 | Wizards v. Magic +3 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Washington has quite honestly looked horrendous this season, with five of their defeats coming by double-digits, Washington is allowing 120.5 points per game and has already allowed at least 134 points three times. Just nasty numbers, and until they can get this ship righted look very much to be fade material, even against a young inconsistent Orlando group. The Magic are still trying tolearn to win, and have shown some signs of waking up of late and have won 2 of their L/3, and despite of a loss last time to Detroit as they still shot 46 percent but were some how outscored 25-16 in the fourth when they shot 5 of 16 and committed nine turnovers. These I consider to be growing pains for a team like the Magic and their more than capable of turning things around and getting us a cover here at home tonight.WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and just 20-38 ATS as a favourite over the last 2 seasons. Play on Orlando to cover |
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11-09-18 | Hornets v. 76ers -5.5 | 132-133 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
The 76ers are playing their best basketball at home, and have won all 6 tilts as hosts this season, and once again look like strong candidates to get the job done again vs Charlotte and more importantly cover the number. I know the Hornets played the 76ers tough the first time they met this season, losing by a 105-103 count, but Im expecting after reassessing their opponents a wider margin of victory this time around, for the home side ,even though Charlotte is exuding confidence and saying they feel they can hang with the Sixers. PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and is 17-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff coming in at 10.9 ppg. CHARLOTTE is 13-25 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with an average point diff of 6.4 ppg. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with he average point diff clicking in at 9.5 ppg. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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11-08-18 | Clippers v. Blazers UNDER 226 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland can run and gun with the best of teams, but they can also be very tough to deal with defensively, as is evident by having held 3 of their L/6 opponents to 93 points or less. The teams they limited were Indiana ( 93) Houston (85) and Minnesota (81). Against this type of free wheeling Clippers team, Im betting behind their 5th best ppg D, and a pace that ranks 17th in the league they force the visitor to adapt to their pace, which will take the Clippers flow away and as result will effect the total offensive combined output of this affair. Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 overall.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with at the average combined score clicking in at 205.8 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 36-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-07-18 | Wolves v. Lakers -5 | 110-114 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
The LA Lakers and their super star LeBron James will primed to up their game, after being embarrassed last time out vs the Toronto Raptors at home getting blasted by DDs. James is the kind of big ego super star who hates to be beat, and Im betting he will be energized and ready to make a statement here tonight vs a struggling Minnesota team that has lost all 6 of their road games this season and on tired legs as they play their 4th away game in less than a week. Note: The Timberwolves have lost 20 of their L/21 as road dogs SU, with the average score diff clicking in at 11 ppg. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |