Atlanta is fairly healthy rolling into the season with the only injured player being Wesley Matthews who will be out with a mild right calf strain. Meanwhile, The Charlotte Hornets released their injury report Tuesday evening and shows guards Cody Martin (left knee soreness), James Bouknight (left knee), and Frank Ntilikina (tibia fracture) have been ruled out for Wednesday's regular season home opener against the Atlanta Hawks. Bryce McGowens (left ankle) is listed as doubtful. Advantage Hawks. 

The Hornets finished last in the Southeast Division and posted the fourth-worst record (27-55) in the NBA last season and Im betting the upgrades will not help them all that much. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CHARLOTTE) - lower tier performing team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 6-22 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate with the ppg diff clicking in at +7.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Hawks to cover 

Im betting Houston is being under rated here -but with  guard Jalen Green, forward Jabari Smith Jr. and center Alperen Sengun in the mix must not be underestimated in their ability to cover and even pull of the upset. I know the consensus is that the Magic have rebuilt a fine young roster, but their inconsistency remains a concern.

Note: Orlando won just 44.4% of the games last season in which it was the moneyline favorite (8-10).

NBA home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - in non-conference games, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses are 6-20 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

The road team has won the last 2 most recent meetings in this series. 

Houston Rockets to cover 

I cannot see alot of defense being played by the Suns this season with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal running and gunning with all out wreck-less abandon. Im betting your going to need to score at a high rate to compete with the Suns, and tonight thats what Im betting the capable Golden state offense will be up to doing. My own projections estimate both these sides will score 214 or more points . Note:PHOENIX is 23-0 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 246.9 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 31-4 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 248.9 ppg scored. 

Golden State had an average implied point total of 120.1 last season, which is 3.1 points higher than its implied total in Tuesday’s game (117).Last season, Golden State scored more than 117 points in a game 50 times.The 116.1-point average implied total last season for Phoenix is 1.1 more points than the team’s 115-point implied total in this matchup.

PHOENIX is 16-5 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 241.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

Its obvious the Miami Heat are in full regression mode, after a great play off run. Truth is the Heat were a very average team during this campaign, while their opponents the Nuggets have been for the most part very consistent and a top tier group all season long. This particular matchup has proven to me that the Nuggets are the superior side at both ends of the court, and the game 2 hiccup the Nuggets suffered was basically a rust issue after a long lay off leading into these Finals. Now the fresher of both sides, and the more talented side will Im betting get the job, done here at home in front of what will be a lively crowd with the NBA championship on the line.  DENVER is 22-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season.Malone is 30-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games as the coach of DENVER. Nuggets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest. MIAMI is 19-31 ATS after playing a home game this season. Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

 Denver to cover 

Im betting Miami comes out here ready to leave everything on the floor in last ditch effort to stave off elimination and that alone will elevate their expected point total. Meanwhile the capable Nuggets playing on their own home floor with championship aspirations just a victory away will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

MIAMI in their L/35 games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored.

 NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 26-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play over

The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Then came game 3 where the rust was completely off as the Nuggets dominated a Heat side that is now suffering regression after a strong play off run.   Still the fresher of both sides and according to my power rankings the superior side  , the Nuggets get the nod again as road favs in game 4.  From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.13 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 4 victory out and  grab the cover in the process.

MIAMI is 10-22 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

DENVER is 21-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season. DENVER is 29-12 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - averaging 45 or less rebounds/game on the season, after a game being out-rebounded by opponent by 20 or more are 14-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Now with this being their 3rd game off extended rest, Im betting we will see the Nuggets at their optimal setting, and with the added incentive of a bounce back performance look like very viable short favs on the road today according to my overall power rankings. From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.34 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 3 victory out.

NBA  team (DENVER) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. ( Miami won 111-108)

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 44-12 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NBA Road favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver has won and covered their L/3 most recent visits to Miami. 

Play on Denver Nuggets to win/cover

When these teams played here in Miami back in Feb the Nuggets won 112-108 and my current line and total projections estimate a number closer to 219/220 giving us 3 full possession value with an over wager. I know the Heat will continue to be physical and try disrupt the Nuggets flow . However, with time to adjust and shake off some rust Im betting the Nuggets come out here in very aggressive fashion and force the Heat to reciprocate with some fire works of their own or be blown off the court, which will translate into a higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. DENVER is 18-7 OVER   off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.  Malone is 15-5 OVER  off a close home loss by 3 points or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. 

Over is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MIAMI is 20-11 OVER  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 11-4 in Heat last 15 home games.Over is 19-7 in Heat last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 13-5 in Heat last 18 games following a ATS win.Over is 20-8 in Heat last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 118-74 OVER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 226-158 OVER L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play over

The Nuggets are still well rested , while the Heat  must still be feeling some exhaustion after their grueling 7 game series, with the Celtics and than immediately  leaving for the Rockies to play in the Mile High City. This is never an easy venue to play in and nothing will change tonight for a Heat side, that according to my current power rankings is over matched . Hey Im not knocking the Heat, as they are a talented hard working group, but the physical toll of play off hoops Im betting will take its toll on them vs a very fresh Denver side, that has had one game to get  the rust off, and now could easily be even  more explosive in game 2 of this series. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS  in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season. MIAMI is 0-11 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.Heat are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Denver is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 in this series including 4-0 SU/ATS as hosts. 

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 13-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a  84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

Western Conference - NBA Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 1

The Miami Heat after a dominating  game  7 game win and  series clincher  against the Celtics    will now be in an emotional letdown spot on the road in the high altitudes of the Mile High City. Im betting the combination of a playing a grueling 7 game series, and than taking a long trip from the East to the West will take its toll on the Heat here for game 1 in thin air environment that is never easy for opposing sides to play in. MIAMI is 0-10 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season. Note: In Denver 38 home games this season the average ppg diff clicks in a +10.1 . 

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - in non-conference games, off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog.are 33-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Denver is 6-0 SU /ATS L/3 seasons vs the Heat including 3-0 SU/ATS at home.

Play on the Nuggets to cover

After a grueling 7 game series vs the Celtics the Heat will be on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown spot, that will have them unable to play a physical style of defensive ball. On the flip side the Nuggets are well rested and healthy and should come out here on fire ready to run and gun.   This combination Im betting will see this Totals offering eclipsed in more wide open game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Over is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 38-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

The Heat took the first 3 games of this series while the Celtics have won the last 3.  But the Heat finally came to life in the last 5 min of the last game, and narrowly lost 104-103. Im betting the Heats regression is now over and  will give what must be an exhausted Boston side all they can handle here in game 7. Teams like Boston that were down 0-3 in a NBA play off series are 0-149 lifetime . 

NBA team (MIAMI) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion. 

.Play on Miami to cover 

Im betting game 7 of this series will be a grueling take no prisoners physical type of event that will have both sides focused on precise mistake free hoops out of transition. That Im betting will make for a lower scoring event that does not eclipse this total.BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA ( BOSTON/ MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 7th game of a playoff series is 60-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

The Celtics in their last two games  are playing their best defensive basketball of the season, and Im betting they keep the pressure on tonight against a Miami Heat side that has regressed since game three of this series. Im expecting a very physical game here, as the proverbial  noose gets tighter around the neck of the Heat, and with elimination at hand for the Celtics for them to be even more attentive in transition, which will combine to keep this game on the lower side this offered totals number .BOSTON is 9-0 UNDER  when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 149-94 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Heat after an amazing play off run and top tier game 3 performance in this series , looked to have hit their peak and now regression has reared its ugly head. With the Celtics now in top form the Heat are in trouble, and Im betting on at least one more meltdown here tonight by the home side  in Miami against what my power rankings suggest is a  superior Celtics  side.Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Celtics own a 5-2 mark in their L/7 trips to Miami.BOSTON is 14-6 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. MIAMI is 8-21 ATS   after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Play on Celtics to cover

The Heat played their best game of the play offs in game 3 of this series and after an amazing run during the post season,  they finally showed some regression as they suffered a down effort in game 4 losing by a DD deficit  . With that said, Im betting on further regression here to the mean as the Heat begin to play down to true talent levels against a Boston side that is overall superior in talent and also in desperation mode as they look to avoid elimination and extend this series.  Quote:"Yeah, everybody was in good spirits, everybody was upbeat, and as cliche as it sounds, we just tried to take it one game at a time," Tatum said. "We didn't play well the first three games, we didn't deserve to win, but we didn't want that to define us, define the season."We've still got a long uphill battle to go. But (Tuesday) was a good start. Just to try to carry this momentum toward Thursday." End quote.

Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

The Celtics top tier D, was finally on display last time out holding the Heat to under triple digits and Im betting on more top tier defensive hoops from the Celtics in transition tonight and for the Heat to suffer further offensive regression after a top tier performance in game 3 of this series.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 201.3 ppg scored.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The Heat are playing their best hoops of the season in the play offs, and their peak performance of entire play offs was last time out a they  shot a blistering 56.8 percent from the field (46 of 81) and 54.3 percent from 3-point range (19 of 35) and  now have a strangle hold on this series.A resounding and over powering 128-102 victory now has me expecting a immediate regression and for a soul searching group of the Celtics to leave everything on the floor tonight. and get us the cover. 

MIAMI is 0-9 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.

Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 36-12 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

The Lakers are now 1 loss away from losing this series and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. Now in desperation mode Im betting on a hugely aggressive effort from the senior laden Lakers, that will see them leave everything on the floor . As has been evident of late,  the Nuggets just wont go away and give this game to the Lakers, but instead fire back with offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total. 

LA LAKERS are 30-17 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 48-33 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games.Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Finals games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 85-43 OVER  L/27 seasons for a  67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play over

The Celtics felt the effect of their grueling 7 game series vs the Sixers in the previous play off round, and looked a little tired against a Miami Heat side that is currently playing their best hoops of the season. The  talented and deep Celtics subsequently lost the first two games of this series at home, and are now in desperation mode making them a dangerous opponent for the Heat. Note: BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 9-18 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Celtics are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record

NBA team (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 48-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Down 2-0 the senior laden Lakers have their backs against the proverbial wall and now need a win desperately and Im betting will now play all out hoops at home where they are undefeated in the this seasons play offs. Denver is a fine team but when experienced super star ballers like James and Davis feel cornered look out. LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA LAKERS are 10-1 ATS  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Coming off a loss during this campaign, the Lakers are 28-16 ATS and 5-0 in the playoffs.

Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.

DENVER is 4-13 ATS ( in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.DENVER is 11-23 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.

Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

Because the Lakers are backed into the proverbial corner after going down 2-0 in this series Im betting they come here in aggressive run and gun fashion and the Nuggets will have no choice but  to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks  of their own or be blown of the court. Advantage to the over.

Note: LA LAKERS  in their L/36 games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

In the first game of this series, the well rested Heat took advantage of a emotionally drained  Boston team that  had previously  took  part in a grueling 7 game seres  . Now a fire has been lit under the proverbial butts of the Celtics and now more rested and rejuvenated mentally Im betting on a big bounce back zig zag theory win and over. 

Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.

 NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 5-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The senior laden Lakers were off playing a grueling series against the Golden State Warriors previous to the the first game of this series and came out flat in the first half. In that game 1 tilt here in the Mile High City the Lakers tried to comeback from a DD deficit at half time but failed on the comeback attempt despite of a huge effort that Im betting will have them very tired here .  James and Davis are great players but their durability must be questioned at this stage of their career, making the exhausted Lakers fade material  in game 2 of this series.

Denver has won all their post season games this season at home and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation as well as an all important cover .

LA LAKERS are 17-33 ATS  when trailing in a playoff series since 1996.

DENVER is 16-7 ATS  in home games off a home win this season.

  NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 33-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

The Nuggets came out of gate in game 1 running and gunning , but looked a little weary in the 2nd half of that tilt with  the pace dropping perceptively and the Lakers adjusting on defense.  
Im betting on  a more even keeled game here with  key adjustments taking place on both sides of the court which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 11-4-1 in Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 11-3-1 in Nuggets last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 43-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA play off Game 2’s after a Game 1 over result , have seen the  under go 41-26 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors  in the last five seasons. 

Play under

The well rested Miami Heat take on a Boston Celtics side off a grueling 7 game series vs the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat have saved their best hoops of the season for the play offs, and played the Celtics tough recently winning the last two matchups between these teams during this campaign with a 98-95 victory at home back on Jan 24th and a 120-116 road win back in December. Now very fresh and ready to continue their assault the Heat catch the Celtics in a emotional and physical down mode after their huge series win vs the 76ers.BOSTON is 0-9 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. MIAMI is 32-18 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MIAMI is 24-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 47-22 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

The L/3 meetings in this series during the current campaign have all eclipsed this total and my projections once again anticipate a score in the mid 220s which gives is a full possession advantage to the over. Considering the Lakers are a top tier side in  transition on offense while the Nuggets ae a weak transition defense you can bet the Lakers will press which will force the home side to be even more aggressive offensively and what could easily be a run and gun game 1. 

LA LAKERS are 17-6 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA LAKERS are 23-14 OVER  as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 42-23 OVER  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

The Nuggets are the No. 1 seed, and have been for most of this season , and have home-court advantage. They were 34-7 at Ball Arena in the regular season and have won all six home playoff games going into this tilt   with the Lakers. Im calling on a rinse and repeat situation and for the Nuggets to have the edge on this ATS offering at home where they have won 4 of their L/5 matchups vs the Lakers. 

LA LAKERS are 5-13 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS  after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 13-2 ATS  in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. DENVER is 21-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 36-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on the Nuggets to cover

It's do or die for both sides here in game 7 and Im betting on a hard fought affair that goes down to the wire. The Sixers have already proved they can win on the road in this series and have proven their resilience  as well. Note: Two of Philadelphia's three victories in the series came in Boston. key quote: "If I have to go to war, Game 7 in Boston, I would want to go with this group," Philadelphia's Tyrese Maxey said. "I know we've got some fighters. I know we've got some resilient guys. I'm ready to get it on."

PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The Celtics got the desperation win last time out, but maintaining that energy Im betting will be very difficult. The Celtics have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 after a victory. The Sixers have covered 5 of their L/8 trips to Bean-town. 

Play on the Sixers to cover

The Warriors shot 51.1 percent from the field  last time out in a win and outrebounded the Lakers 48-38. Im betting on immediate regression here against what will be a more motivated Lakers group here tonight. The Lakers Davis played his least amount of min in the play offs in that last game, but should be more rested for this key tilt. What was troubling was the Warriors   14 turnovers and tonight Im betting under pressure that those ugly numbers will contribute the Warriors downfall.  

GOLDEN STATE is 3-12 ATS  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.GOLDEN STATE is 14-32 ATS  in road games this season.LA LAKERS are 12-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover

Having enough talent on the floor is obviously very important, but in the play offs if you don't have an experienced coach, you are most probably doomed.With Spoelestra on the sidelines for Miami in a clutch post season action Im betting the Heat have the edge especially playing here at home where they have defeated the Knicks in 5 of their L/7 meetings. I know the Knicks played a great game last time out in desperation mode, but even after leaving everything on the floor, there was a feeling of inadequacy surrounding the Knicks and an emotional let down situation could easily hamper their flow this evening. 

MIAMI is 29-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 46-25 ATS  in the second round of the playoffs since 1996. Spoelstra is 30-14 ATS  in the second round of the playoffs as the coach of MIAMI.

Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

This has been a homer series so far with the host team winning all five tilts. However, the discrepancy in scores has been  more tilted to towards the Nuggets in their home wins while the Suns home victories have been much closer and hard fought.  My won feelings and analysis suggest the Nuggets are the superior side overall , and deserve respects as underdogs in this key spot play. DENVER is 20-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA team (PHOENIX) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 18-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on the Nuggets to cover

With the backs up against the proverbial wall, Im betting on a huge bounce back effort from the Celtics in classic zig zag theory mode. They played lousy D, and inconsistent offense and will easily uptrend in their return to the court. Don't count the never say die Celtics out is my moto for tonight.  Remember last season when the Celtics won Game 6 on the road  against the Milwaukee Bucks and then captured the series in seven games. Quote: "If you're not willing to pretty much get dirty, if you're not willing to bleed, if you're not willing to break something, willing to tear something going hard, then you shouldn't be on that court, because that's what it is," Marcus Smart said. "That's what the playoffs are about. Hopefully you stay safe, but that's the mentality. You gotta go, you gotta be willing to risk it all for these games. end Quote

BOSTON is 20-7 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more.

BOSTON is 15-6 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

BOSTON is 15-4 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a home loss are 51-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boston to cover 

The senior laden Lakers are probably pretty tired right now,  after playing all out hoops in 4 straight games, and will have a hard time here against Golden State that plays their best hoops at home as is evident by their 36-10 home record this season. GOLDEN STATE is 15-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS ( in home games off a loss against a division rival this season

MLB team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 55-22 for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA team (LA LAKERS) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs, in a playoff game are 113-173 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors 

The Knicks have their backs up against the proverbial wall , as Miami will try to close out this series tonight. Im betting that will be delayed by a desperate side. The Knicks pulled down an average of 46.6 rebounds per game during the regular season, tied for second-most in the NBA, and out-rebounded foes by 4.5 per game and tonight Im betting we see them at their best and very physical as they leave everything on the court. 

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.

NEW YORK is 12-4 ATS  after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season.

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 20-46 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on the Knicks to cover 

The Suns, thanks to the red hot  shooting of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, tied the series with a 129-124 win in Game 4 on Sunday . The Suns really had to have everything going for them to get that win, but now here in the Mile High city Im betting on immediate regression from the Suns vs a side that is fired up after their star forward Nikola Jokic was called on a technical and fined for nudging Suns owner court-side. This will ignite the Nuggets . 

Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. PHOENIX is 7-16 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

DENVER is 33-18 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DENVER is 17-8 ATS  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts this season.DENVER is 21-11 ATS  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Malone is 66-45 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of DENVER.

Play on Denver to cover

After losing in OT in the road last time out, Im betting the Boston Celtics will  regain control of their Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series  vs the Philadelphia 76ers in a pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday night. When the going gets tough my money rides with the Celtics. 

BOSTON is 17-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-30 ATS) versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

The long and winding road has not been kind to the Warriors this season as they have just 13 wins in 46 road games . I im betting the this talented by aging  Lakers group understands the importance of a win now situation, as this is this groups last chance at a championship ie (James and Davis in particularly).  Look for the old fellas to leave everything on the floor tonight and for the Lakers to bring home the cash. 

GOLDEN STATE is 5-13 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. GOLDEN STATE is 3-11 ATS  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.

Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Conference Semifinals games.Warriors are 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

LA LAKERS are 14-6 ATSin home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. LA LAKERS are 7-0 ATS  in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. 

Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.

NBA Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant combined for 86 points in Game 3 as the Phoenix Suns got back into the Western Conference semifinals, but now Im betting on some immediate regression against a resilient group of Nuggets. 

Nuggets coach Michael Malone was not pleased with his defenders and said his  defense better be prepared to improve on Sunday. The primary focus will be on defending Booker, who is averaging 36.9 points per game this postseason. Malone has is his team fired up and ready to play. 

Malone is 46-25 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of DENVER.

Malone is 33-16 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of DENVER.

DENVER is 15-5 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season.

DENVER is 14-6 ATS against Pacific division opponents this season.

NBA  team (PHOENIX) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 16-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Philadelphia is a top tier side, but the Celtics are an elite team with just to many weapons to contain. Yes, the Celtics have off nights, but their consistency and hunger for victory is something that makes them viable betting options, on a value line. The Celtics have also proven they matchup well vs the Sixers which Im sure is frustrating for the 76ers . That frustration manifests into mistakes, and that is when the Celtics are at their best. With Joel Embiid at less than 100% or not able to play today the Sixers are in trouble.

Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.

 BOSTON is 17-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. 

BOSTON is 26-11 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games

BOSTON is 15-5 ATSwhen the line is +3 to -3 this season.

BOSTON is 17-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 1-10 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Rivers is 5-16 ATS   versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 11-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Its well documented how the Warriors have struggled on the road this season, garnering an ugly 13-32 record .  they have recently come up big in a couple of road opportunities but, tonight their lack of mojo on the road Im betting will be evident vs a  veteran laden side that knows how to win when the chips are down . Its  crunch games like this that the aging King James shows us glimpses of what made him a super star in this league. Note: Los Angeles won the series opener on the road vs Memphis like they did against Golden State , lost Game 2  just like they did against the Grizzlies and then came home to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a pair of victories. Rinse and repeat in play today. 

Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.Warriors are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

LA LAKERS are 25-9 ATS  when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

GOLDEN STATE is 5-13 ATS  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS as a road underdog this season. GOLDEN STATE is 6-15 ATS   in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. GOLDEN STATE is 5-13 ATS   on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 104-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

My projections estimate that Golden State will allow 115+ points here tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 25-6 OVER   when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the LA LAKERS are 13-4 OVER   when they score 115 to 120 points in a game this season with a combined average of 237 ppg going on the board. Advantage over.

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up win.Over is 38-15 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 37-17-2 in Warriors last 56 road games.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 OVER  in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored..GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 OVER  )on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

Ham is 41-26 OVER sub par  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 236.5 ppg scored. Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play over

All season long the pundits wondered what was wrong with the Heat, as they flailed away playing inconsistent basketball more often than not. It seems the Heat saved their best hoops for the play offs and are now in top form, as was evident when the defeated the defending Milwaukee Bucks in the opening round of the play offs.. With that said, Im now betting after a hard fought loss in game 2 of this series, that they bounce back in classic zig zag theory mode, and deliver a win vs a Knicks at their own home court. I know Jimmy butler is listed as questionable, but this is to important of a game for him to miss with a lower grade ankle issue. Even if butler cannot take to the court I believe this Heat team is deep enough to compete and grab the victory. 

MIAMI is 18-8 ATS   after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons .MIAMI is 18-8 ATS   after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Spoelstra is 28-13 ATS  in the second round of the playoffs as the coach of MIAMI. Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. MIAMI is 28-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Heat has covered 5 straight games.

Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games.

Play on Miami to cover

Down two games to zero the Suns have their backs up against the proverbial wall and will come out firing bullets tonight . DENVER is 4-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Malone is 4-16 ATS   in road games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more as the coach of DENVER. 

Advantage Phoenix.

 PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS  in home games after playing a road game this season.

NBA Road underdogs (DENVER) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 16-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phoenix to cover ( Late Steam)

With 76ers star  Embiid still dealing with a knee injury and less than 100% or not playing at all the home side is at a disadvantage vs a Celtics side that now looks wide awake after a DD win last time out vs the Sixers. Advantage Celtics . 

BOSTON is 16-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.BOSTON is 14-5 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 14-29 ATS versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 8-31 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate.

Play on the Celtics to cover

The Warriors succumbed to the Lakers in game 1 of this series, but in classic zig zag theory Im betting the Warriors rebound in a big way here this evening.Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Warriors are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games.

LA LAKERS are 9-21 ATS  off a road win over the last 2 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 36-16 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Kerr is 22-3 ATS revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.( Lakers won the last reg season meeting at home and than took out the Warriors in Game 1 of this series)

NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a home loss are 99-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBAHome favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Warriors to cover

I am betting the Celtics will bounce back here with a top tier brand of defense, something that alluded them in game 1 of this series as they lost 119-115 to the 76ers. Boston ranks 5th in ppg allowed in the NBA and own the top SRS mark with a 6.38.  SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

BOSTON is 19-7 ATS  off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more points.

BOSTON is 15-4 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 5-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 42-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

With Miamis top player Butler unable to finish Game 1 because an ankle issue,  and New York's star forward Julius Randle  unable to start  game 1 it due to a sprained left ankle both sides maybe without their top players. Looking at the depth of the rosters has me now leaning on the Knicks to bounce back in classic zig zag theory mode. It must also be noted that the Heat are 9-26 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread this season.  (Miami upset the Heat in Game 1 of this series)

NEW YORK is 16-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.

NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 20-11 ATS  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 17-3 ATS  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 29-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 79-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBAUnderdogs (MIAMI) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 16-48 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NYK to cover 

Sixers super star Embiid sustained a sprained LCL in his right knee during Game 3 of Philadelphia's first-round series against the Brooklyn Nets and did not play when the 76ers clinched the series with a win in Game 4. If he plays here tonight he will be less than 100%  which will directly effect the flow of this the Sixers. Embiid scored 52 points in Philadelphia's lone victory over Boston, a 103-101 outcome in April and without his presence or lack their off involvement in this tilt are at an extreme disadvantage. So asking DDs is not as extreme as many may expect.PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.BOSTON is 15-3 ATS   when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.

Play on Boston to cover

Golden States starting five have matched up well against the Kings in this this series as is evident  by a +19.4 rating and are +6.2 with Curry on the floor. As we get into the gritty tough part of this series I expect coach Kerr to have his top men on the court for a good portion of this game and for the Warriors to have an edge in a bounce back situation after a down effort at home last time out. Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 pointsKings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Play on Golden State to cover

The Heat just shocked the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks and took a series hardly any of the pundits predicted. They finished of ftheir series with a explosive 128-126 victory and will now be in a emotional  letdown situation in game 1 of this series vs the MY Knicks. Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Heat are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.Heat are 9-28-1 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS win.MIAMI is 8-26 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread this season.

Meanwhile, the Knicks thanks to a top tier brand of defensive ball took out the Cleveland Cavaliers 4 games to 1 and now enter this tilt with momentum on their own home court. Advantage Knicks. 

NEW YORK is 17-2 ATS  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 48-4 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.5 which easily qualifiers on this ATS offering. 

NBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 49-14 ATS L/5 seasons for. a72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

This matchup according to my projections estimate a combined score that eclipses this totals offering and should be closer to 211. Thanks to the Knicks top tier defensive play against another defensive minded team the Cleveland Cavs in their last series this total is now a little tainted in my opinion and offers value for over bettors even if key offensive cog- Randle misses this game for the Knicks.  

NEW YORKs L/10 games  after 3 or more consecutive unders this season a combined score of 218.9 ppg have gone on the scoreboard.

NEW YORK is 17-7 OVER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 10-2 OVER in April games this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after allowing 100 points or less 3 straight games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

Play on the over

The Suns are favored to win the series and reach the NBA Finals, but projections don't quite see it that way as my power rankings suggest the Nuggets matchup well vs the Suns especially here at home in the Mile High city. Quote: "We like our chances," Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon said. "I feel like we've continued to take care of ourselves on and off the floor to give ourselves an opportunity to be healthy and get a chance to get our legs back against Phoenix." End quote.

Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record

DENVER is 17-7 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.DENVER is 13-4 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season.DENVER is 31-16 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DENVER is 26-10 ATS   after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Memphis has been a sub par road team all season long, and are fade material here against a senior laden Lakers team that knows how to win in clutch situations especially when they have home court advantage on this sides. I know the Grizzlies grabbed the win last time out, but thats not a good omen considering they are  0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.

MEMPHIS is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. MEMPHIS is 1-15 ATS   as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.

LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Warriors have won the last two games in this series vs the Kings and now come home, where they play their best basketball as is evident by a 35-8 SU record at home that has seen them cover 29 of those games. I'll follow the Warriors momentum for a cover. Warriors are 40-17-1 ATS in their last 58 home games.

GOLDEN STATE is 25-9 ATS  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season.GOLDEN STATE is 18-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 14-6 ATS  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

We are getting into clutch time in this series, and Im now betting we begin to see a more physical type of basketball that leans on the conservative side. My own projections make this game closer to a 231 which gives us almost two full possessions value on this line offering from the books to the under. 

Under is 20-8-1 in Kings last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 home games.SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combine average of 230.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER   in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 UNDER  in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER   in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 41-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 71-28 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The Hawks thanks to the great work of Trae Young have now gotten the full attention of the Celtics and response  Im betting we now see the Boston play a complete game .  When they take a lead this time which Im betting they do , they wont let up. Full steam ahead. 

Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

BOSTON is 16-3 ATS  versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or worse - 2nd half of the season this season.

ATLANTA is 7-19 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.( Atlanta shocked the Celtics with a late comeback win last time out by a 119-117 score)

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 41-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 12-34 ATS L/5 seasons for. ago against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boston to cover

Kings emerging super star Fox,   is listed as doubtful, tonight . He has averaged 31.5 points, 7.0 assists and 6.0 rebounds in the series and has been a major catalyst for the Warriors. Golden State  now has an edge. 

SACRAMENTO is 8-17 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SACRAMENTO) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 14-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

The defending champion Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo ready to go tonight and will primed to really get back their mojo against a Miami side that has been highly inconsistent all season long. Im not going to be lured into their current run of good luck in. a key game like this . 

Heat are 8-28-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a ATS win.Heat are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.

MIAMI is 1-10 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. MILWAUKEE is 11-2 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season.

MIAMI is 1-8 ATS  in road games versus sub par pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 8-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons here at home. 

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in April games are 6-23 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, off a upset loss as a favorite are 51-18 ATS L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 23-8 ATS L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

I know these sides have eclipsed the total in 7 straight meetings and there are a ton of over trends. However, Im betting that the Heat will be in bubble mode tonight and will be conservative in transition knowing that the Bucks will come at them with everything they have. That in itself bodes well for a score that does not eclipse this total. 

The Heat are 2nd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace in the league and 30th in ppg production and  we  will see why these stats had been established this season, MIAMI is 14-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI/MILWAUKEE ) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 5th game of a playoff series are 30-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average score of those 34 tilts clicking in at 202.4 ppg. 

Play under 

The Grizzlies have played their best hoops at home this season garnering a powerful 37-6 SU record, and tonight Im betting with their backs up against the wall we see them at their best. 
LA LAKERS are 8-19 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 29-13 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 30-16 ATS  against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons

NBA team (LA LAKERS) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs, in a playoff game are 109-170 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (MEMPHIS) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 41-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Lakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Memphis.

Play on Memphis to cover

Down 3 games to 1 to the Knicks  it's do or die tonight for the Cavaliers. Im betting they come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and get the job done in desperation mode. 

Cavaliers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS  in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season.CLEVELAND is 25-16 ATSas a home favorite this season

CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS in home games versus sub par pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game this season.

NBA Home favorites (CLEVELAND) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 31-8 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

After an inconsistent season, the Suns are finally starting to find their legs and flow, and have now won 3 games in row in this series and are set to eliminate a Clippers side playing without two of leagues top players Leonard and George. You can literally feel the proverbial  air coming out of the Clippers tires. Im betting its lights out on the Clippers season and that it happens in convincing fashion at the hands of the Suns .

PHOENIX is 8-0 ATS  in home games off a road win this season. Williams is 15-3 ATS   after 3 consecutive division games in all games he has coached since 1996. 

Suns are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.

LA CLIPPERS are 4-18 ATS when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover

Minnesota was able to stave off elimination in game 4 of this series, despite of relinquishing a late lead and having to go into OT. Now after leaving everything on the floor last time out and now having to travel to the Mile High City Im betting their season will come to an end in DD fashion at the hands of what is the superior side.

DENVER is 15-7 ATS  off a road loss this season.

NBA Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to cover 

The Celtics will be on a mission to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks when their Eastern Conference first-round series shifts back to Boston for Game 5 on Tuesday night. Im betting on the superior side coming out here with all guns blazing and to finish the job in this key situation.

ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season this season. ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 16-2 ATS versus defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more - 2nd half of the season this season. ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS in road games off a home loss this season. BOSTON is 14-3 ATS  in April games over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 7-15 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents this season.

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

Play on Celtics to cover 

Miami finally woke up last time out and played a good game and upset the Bucks. However, Miami has not been consistent this season at all, especially after a victory ,while the Bucks have proved to be resilient off a upset loss. Advantage Bucks. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-1 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite this season. 

MIAMI is 3-11 ATS   after a win by 10 points or more this season. 

MIAMI is 6-26 ATS   after a game where they covered the spread this season.

NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 31-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rare for bettors. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 12-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Minnesota sometimes seems to have to many internal conflicts to be able to deal with the business of fighting hard against their opposition. The Wolves have talent but no sense of unity or chemistry, while the opposite holds true for a cohesive group of Nuggets. Advantage Denver. 

MINNESOTA is 5-16 ATS  in home games after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent like the Nuggets. MINNESOTA is 18-44 ATS in home games off a home loss against a division rival.

DENVER is 16-6 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 6-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

 Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Nuggets to cover

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

Boston was upset in game 3 of this series by a 130-122 count, as the Hawks played a top tier offense brand of hoops. The Celtics however, are a super talented well coached team that are resilient and Im betting they bounce back here in a big way vs a Hawks side that is ready for immediate regression. Note:Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Celtics are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

BOSTON is 15-2 ATS  versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% - or more  2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Road favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 70-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA  Underdogs (ATLANTA) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA team (ATLANTA) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs, in a playoff game are 106-169 ATS L/26 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

Afternoon pro basketball can sometimes be a little bit slower and low scoring as it takes time for bodies that are used to playing most of their games in the evening to get acclimated to early starts . However, this total is just a little bit over done to the low side according to my estimates even though these two sides have taken part in 3 lower scoring affairs . ( My totals projection took into consideration that NEW YORK is 20-10 OVER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored and that in Cleveland last  14 games  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. Also Bickerstaff  in 8 road games after a combined score of 185 points or less as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

Play over

The Grizzlies have dominated at home this season, but on the road they have shown themselves to highly inconsistent, garnering wins in just 16 of their 41 road tilts. Meanwhile, the Lakers have played a strong brand of hoops at the Staples center, and Im betting on a rinse and repeat scenario here tonight. Advantage Lakers.

MEMPHIS is 3-12 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.MEMPHIS is 1-9 ATS (in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season.MEMPHIS is 9-24 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 71-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. ( Grizzlies won the last game by 103-93 count)

Lakers to cover

Even if Antetokounmpo is forced to miss this game tonight , the Bucks have proven they can  compete without their super star and matchup well vs the Heat behind a deep talented side. Advantage goes to the Bucks.

MILWAUKEE is 11-2 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.

MIAMI is 4-12 ATS versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. MIAMI is 4-12 ATS  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

NBA Road teams (MILWAUKEE) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more are 45-19 L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Suns have a big time advantage vs a side playing without  George and Leonard. Right now the Clippers look like a defeated team, while on the flip-side the Suns are playing their best basketball of the season. 

PHOENIX is 33-18 ATS  off a road win over the last 2 seasons.Suns are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.

NBA Underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. \

Play on Phoenix to cover

The mismatch continues today as Im betting the Sixers take care of business again vs Brooklyn.

BROOKLYN is 4-19 ATS   in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 0-10 ATS in home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NBA underdogs (BROOKLYN) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

LATE STEAM- Play on Philadelphia 

The Nuggets have proven to me that they mtchup very well against the Wolves, and more of the same advantages they were able to garner in game 1 and 2 will continue here. 

Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.

MINNESOTA is 0-7 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season.Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

DENVER is 15-6 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 7-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

The fifth-seeded Knicks went 3-1 in the regular season against the fourth-seeded Cavaliers and then stole home-court advantage with the Game 1 win and according to my power rankings matchup well here at home vs the visitors. 

NEW YORK is 15-6 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. Thibodeau is 19-7 ATS  in April games as the coach of NEW YORK. 

Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NEW YORK is 8-1 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.NEW YORK is 32-18 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons

NEW YORK is 14-2 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.

CLEVELAND is 6-14 ATS in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Knicks to cover

The Hawks usually explosive offense  that averaged 118.7 points per game during the regular season, have been limited to a total of  205 points in their two playoff games by a tenacious Celtics D. Atlanta has shot 40.7 percent from the field in those two games and Trae Young the Hawks star has also been limited and I cant see things changing much here.BOSTON is 15-1 ATS  versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  - 2nd half of the season this season.BOSTON is 13-2 ATS in April games over the last 2 seasons. Mazzulla is 23-9 ATS (off a home win as the coach of BOSTON.

Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. 

Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Celtics are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 Conference Quarterfinals games.

ATLANTA is 6-14 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season.

Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Celtics are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.Play on the Celtics to cover

The Suns matchup well vs the Clippers, and are more than capable of pulling off the victory here on the road in game 3 of this series. The Suns took game 2 of this series, 123-109 and deserve respect here as short road chalk. Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.

LA CLIPPERS are 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season.LA CLIPPERS are 4-16 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 season.LA CLIPPERS are 4-15 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Suns are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play on the Suns to cover

The Warriors lost the first two games of this series on the road at Sacramento but  have played their best hoops at home this season where they have garnered a 33-8 record and are more than capable of a bounce back performance. 

GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season. GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 35-11 ATS L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

GOLDEN STATE is 6-0 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons at home. 

Play on Warriors to cover

My projections make this total closer to 235 which gives us close to 2 full possession advantage to the  under. 

SACRAMENTO is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored . 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with combined average  off 228 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season with s combined 216 ppg scored.  GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 UNDER   after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 219 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 54-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion. 

Play on the under

Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to miss this game and thats why we are getting such a good line to back the home favs in this classic bounce back theory rebounder. ( Miami won game of this series 130-117) The Bucks are a deep team and have the ability to tie this series tonight at  home. Meanwhile, with key  Heat cog Herro is out with a broken hand and that will effect the flow of the visitors. 

Heat are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest.Heat are 7-27-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS win.Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.MIAMI is 6-25 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 36-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate)

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Clippers took out the Suns in game 1 but now Im betting on the zig zag theory taking hold, and for the Suns to mount a comeback in game 2. PHOENIX is 34-17 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 4-16 ATS  in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 28-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 34-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

NBA Underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more are 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. .

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover

Cleveland lost 101-97 in game 1 of this series , and now in classic zig zag theory fashion Im betting on a huge bounce back here vs the visiting Knicks and game two of this series. 

CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS  in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight game are 45-3 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 24-1 L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.8  which eawsily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Philadelphia poured down 121 points in game 1 for the hefty DD win. The Nets will now have to become more aggressive offensively, while the Sixers will have not problem obliging them with a full blown offensive attack in response. BROOKLYN is 15-5 OVER  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 28-9 OVER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 OVER  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this seasons with combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 77-36 OVER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 56-25 OVER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Denver enters this play off game having lost 5 of their L/7 and look wobbly at the wrong time of the season. Meanwhile, Minnesota continues to play competitive hoops and have covered 5 straight games and will not be easily man handled .The Wolves also have a big time revenge scenario  on their minds after suffering a blowout loss to the Nuggets back on Feb here in Denver. 

Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

 MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

MINNESOTA is 18-6 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.

MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS  in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 13-25 ATS  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Timberwolves are 24-7 ATS in the last 31 meetings in Denver.Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Play on Wolves to cover

My power rankings make the Clippers viable underdogs on what Im betting is a over blown home fav line for the Suns. 

PHOENIX is 9-33 ATS off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog since 1996. (The Clippers just beat the Suns last week 119-114 and I wont be surprised by a repeat situation manifesting itself here today)

LA CLIPPERS are 15-3 ATSin road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.Clippers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Lakers are an older team but along with that comes alot of experience and the ability to perform under pressure. I know the Grizzlies are a strong side, with alot of young talent but their lack of experience in pressure situations makes them vulnerable.Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Grizzlies are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Play on the Lakers to cover

Warriors have a great deal of play off experience on their sides, and that Im betting will be their edge here in game 1 of an expected close game. Warriors are 32-14 ATS in their last 46 Conference Quarterfinals games. GOLDEN STATE is 33-15 ATS  in the first round of the playoffs since 1996. I know the Warriors have not been great on the road this season, but Kings are just  1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

SACRAMENTO is 6-17 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Entering the play offs Atlanta s offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 123.6 ppg in their L/5 trips the court, and Im betting they will for the most part keep up that  tiop tier offensive pace tonight in Boston . We know Boston is a solid defensive side, but when pressured can turn up their offense, and thats what Im betting the Celtics will be forced into doing today. BOSTON is 8-1 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combine average of 244.6 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 15-3 OVER  after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 242.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

 The Nets have built chemistry since the  deadline trades sent away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They have been fr from easy outs on most nights since   Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie have come on board and they have alot of confidence heading into this series and here game 1 Im betting they are being under rated. 

BROOKLYN is 13-5 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.BROOKLYN is 13-3 ATS L/16  in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days . BROOKLYN is 10-1 ATS  in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 19-6 ATS L/21 in road games revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. 

Vaughn is 35-17 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots in all games he has coached.Vaughn is 30-15 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in all games he has coached

NBA team vs the money line (BROOKLYN) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off an embarrassing upset loss by 20 points or more as a favorite are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more are 45-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover

Minnesota defeated the Thunder back on Dec 16th by a 112-110 final score. Now in revenge mode in a key play off play in  game Im betting Oklahoma City will be ready to play  and according to my power rankings matchup well vs the Wolves as was the case the last time they met. Daigneault is 8-0 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-6 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season.MINNESOTA is 7-16 ATS  as a home favorite this season.

From a SRS perspective the Thunder rank 15th in the league at 0.26 while the 
Wolves rank 21st with -0.22 mark . Even with home court advantage the Thunder has an edge on this offered line. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Chicago upset Toronto as underdogs last time out and well positioned to pull off another win as pups. Meanwhile, the Heat are  off a  116-105  loss and just  have not looked like a play off team for much of this season and do not deserve to be this big a fav in this tilt vs a Bulls side that has won 11 of their L17 tilts overall. Chicago has won the L/3 most recent meetings and deserve respect here as road dogs. 

MIAMI is 9-24 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season.MIAMI is 4-12 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.MIAMI is 5-14 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season.MIAMI is 9-22 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on the Bulls to cover 

Chicago has won 3 straight in this series, with all those games eclipsing this offered total.  Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 home games.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, second half of the season are 41-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

Play on the over 

Oklahoma City and New Orleans rank nearly identically in most major statistical categories which makes taking points here a viable wagering option. 

From a SRS perspective the Pelicans have a small edge even when factoring in home court advantage. 

New Orleans owns a 1.63 SRS while Oklahoma City has registered 0.96 SRS. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Oklahoma City has covered their L/4 visits to New Orleans winning 3 of those games SU. 

NEW ORLEANS is 7-15 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-6 ATS  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season.

Play on Oklahoma city Thunder to cover

My projections estimate a combined score that reaches the mid 230s plus here.  With the Wolves defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert out because of suspension, Im betting the now healthy Lakers really push this pace and force a capable and willing Wolves group into a run and gun affair. 

The Lakers ranked 3rd in pace in the NBA this season and 6th in ppg offense and 20th in ppg allowed. (Lakers have gone over in 8 straight games)

The Wolves ranked 18th in ppg allowed and 8th in pace in the NBA and were in the top half of the league in scoring offense.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER   in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 247.9 ppg scored. (Lakers beat the Wolves 123-111 L/week)

MINNESOTA is 31-19 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more  of their shots are 30-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

The Warriors mission will be to stay as healthy as possible entering the play offs and I wont be at all surprised if they rest alot of key players as this game proceeds giving us an edge with the home dog. GOLDEN STATE is 3-12 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 5-15 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs of 10 or more points (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 44-17 ATS L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover

The Bucks will be resting almost the entire core of their team, and Im betting that they will instead concentrate on playing a conservative defensive minded  game behind a coaching staff that recognizes the importance of being disciplined in transition entering post season play. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. Also with a depleted lineup last time out the Bucks allowed the Grizzlies to pound down 137 points, they will be more aware here defensively  in this spot play vs the Toronto Raptors who could also rest a big portion of their team.Under is 10-4 in Bucks last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota has been off since Tuesday, and will have plenty of energy to run and gun here tonight vs what is usually a poor Spurs defense ranked last in the NBA in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The Spurs  are off  129-127 win vs Portland last time out and run the 2nd ranked pace in the NBA and Im betting on more wide hoops tonight against a fresh Wolves side. 

Over is 7-3 in Timberwolves last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 35-16 in Timberwolves last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a straight up win.

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Antonio. 

Play on the over

Phoenix has won a season-high seven straight games entering this meeting against the Lakers, and Im betting will push the home team hard today in a tilt I have pegged to be a back forth event that will see aggressive offensive action. With this being a back to back situation for the Suns Im sure they wont get physical and their defense positioning  will suffer. I do also expect the Lakers  James and Anthony to suit up despite of being questionable . The Lakers are trying to avoid playing play in game so all decks should be on the agenda tonight. the most recent meeting  in this series sae a combined 233 points scored. Rinse and repeat . 

Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.

Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games.

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score of 225 ppg giving us almost a two two full possession edge on an under wager cashing. 

DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER  off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.

NBA team (DALLAS/CHICAGO) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 28-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 36-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

As Philadelphia prepares for a play off run, they have begun to hone their defensive skills and are not not running and gunning like they were during their mid season portion of their so far successful campaign. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed. the last time the 76ers played the Heat back on March 1st the held the Heat to just 96 points. MIAMI is 10-2 UNDER   in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 210.3 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the Heat have gone  Under in 4 straight  road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 road games. Im betting on another lower scoring affair in this spot play.

Spoelstra in 280 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI has seen a combined average score of 202.4 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored.

The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this Totals offering. The L/4 meetings in this series have also seen one of these teams not eclipse the 100 point plateau. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), in April games are 94-50 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under