Cleveland has won 3 straight and 7 of their L/9 and are playing at a very  high level entering this game and deserve respect here as favs on this line vs a Heat side, that will be playing without Jimmy Butler .

CLEVELAND is 18-4 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season. CLEVELAND is 11-1 ATS  after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season.  CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season.

NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog are 1-35 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff -13.8 ppg which qualifies from ATS perspective. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

 The Kings continue to have defensive problems  allowing a whopping 116.9 ppg on the road this season and those deficiencies will be their downfall tonight vs a Toronto team that has won 3 of their L/4 games, and defeated this Kings team by a 108-89 score back in mid November. 

TORONTO is 22-9 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons . TORONTO is 15-5 ATS  after a combined score of 195 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing teamare 61-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Orlando played the LA Clippers tough yesterday and lost by a 108-106 score as 8.5 point dogs, and today Im betting they are being slightly under rated again and are viable underdogs on this DD offering. Meanwhile, the Lakers have had a habit of taking defacto nights off vs lower tier opponents like Orlando , and Im betting this is one of them. 

LA LAKERS are 1-10 ATS  versus poor shooting teams - making 43% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons. LA LAKERS are 9-23 ATS   versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

LA LAKERS are 6-14 ATS as a favorite this season. LA LAKERS are 1-8 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread this season.

LA LAKERS are 2-15 ATS   after allowing 95 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (ORLANDO) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

Philadelphia usually plays their best hoops at home, and tonight is an opportunity to up their game, and take down Western Conference power house Golden State. By pushing on their visiting opponents Im betting on a more aggressive game out of transition by both sides that will  then see the  combined score pushing upward past this offered  totals number.

PHILADELPHIA is 23-10 OVER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored. 

 - NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - a very good team (+7 or more PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 33-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

When these teams played a couple days ago here the Spurs came out on top and showed they matchup well vs the Nuggets. Rinse and repeat. 

DENVER is 6-18 ATS L/24  revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a losing record are 36-9 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Spurs to cover 

Houston ranks 27th in SRS: -7.09 and 22nd in ppg offense and 26th in ppg defense. Meanwhile, Memphis is ranked 9th in ppg offense and own a ranking of 12th in SRS at 0.63. Add in the edges for home court advantage and I will not be surprised by a DD victory for the home side. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

HOUSTON is 13-24 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 13-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 37-2 L/25 seasons for a 95% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.4 ppg which qualifies from a ATS perspective. 

NBA team (MEMPHIS) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 72-38 ATS L/25 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Memphis to cover 

The Magic have some offensive momentum coming into this tilt against the LA Clippers, scoring 130 points last time out which is a good omen for those of us who feel taking points here is a good opportunity for profit taking. Note: The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. I know the Magic will not inspire bettors and the Clippers are the superior side, but here in a very early afternoon game in LA the visitors Im betting have the edge, vs a side that could easily over looking them. Note: Lue is 7-19 ATS  when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) in all games he has coached since 1999. 

LA CLIPPERS are 0-8 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. 

Play on Orlando Magic to cover 

 The Wolves have lost 4 straight, but are still uptrending in my power rankings charts and deserve respect here when Karl-Anthony Towns  is in the lineup , which he is expected to be tonight. The Timberwolves' big man is averaging a team-high 24.2 points and 9.3 rebounds this season, and will be a handful for Cleveland D to defend against. Advantage Wolves. 

Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.

CLEVELAND is 9-28 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons and is 12-33 ATS  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more are 8-32 L/25 seasons for a go against  84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (MINNESOTA) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread are 146-91 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Knicks are not living up to their hefty expectations to this point in the season, and have not won back to back games since Oct. The Knicks have lost 4 of their L/5 and are once again looking vulnerable vs a Toronto team that may not be of championship calibre anymore, but are a team to watch with a group of young players that have shown flashes of brilliance and cohesiveness this season. Note:Knicks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Knicks are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.

NBA  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 35-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto to cover 

 Denver won last time out, but have not won back to back games since Nov 14 and are fade material here vs a Spurs team that has lost two straight prior to a 4 game win streak. Denver took a 102 -96 win at home back in October, and in their current form I expect a  Popovich  lead group to that  is 30-15 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons to collect the money in this spot play. Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

Malone is 48-66 ATS  against Southwest division opponents as the coach of DENVER. Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 56-26 L/25 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

The Grizzlies looked  asleep at the proverbial wheel last night  as their  five-game winning streak ended  vs Dallas in an emotionless effort. After exerting very little effort last night Im betting they will have plenty of energy left in the tank for the second half of a back-to-back against the visiting Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. Advantage Grizzlies. 

MEMPHIS is 17-6 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 12-1 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 5-13 ATS  as a favorite this season. LA LAKERS are 2-12 ATS  off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MEMPHIS) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 35-7 L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams (MEMPHIS) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 43-16 ATS L/15 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Lakers enter this road game against Memphis with the 4th best ppg offense the 28th ranked ppg defense behind the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA. Meanwhile, Memphis ranks 8th in ppg offense and 24th in ppg defense behind the 13th fast pace in the league. Tonight Im betting on an all out offensive slugfest behind two sides who attack and rarely play defensively well in transition which will result in a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers are expecting. 

Note:  Im expecting a fast pace and alot of shots here tonight by both sides:  MEMPHIS is 32-19 OVER  in up-tempo games where they attempt 93 or more shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.3 ppg scored. 

NBAHome teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, first half of the season are 55-21 OVER L/25 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Jazz are being over rated by the lines-makers on as visitors and are just  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. This Im betting is the case here again in Minnesota tonight vs a Wolves side, that  are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 8-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite are 19-7 L/25 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, playing with 2 days rest are just 19-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

 .The Nuggets have lost eight of their past 10 games and are obviously in a major funk, with their conditioning looking like it could be an issue as 3rd quarter meltdowns have become the norm of late. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have shown some upward momentum lately,   having won four of their last seven games over the past two weeks and deserve enough respect here at home for me to take the points. 

Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.Nuggets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record 32-8 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

The Grizzlies have  won and covered 5 straight games even without key cog Morant in the lineup and once again have a big edge vs the visiting Dallas Mavericks who are on tired legs after playing 4 games in 6 night and losing last night for their 3rd straight loss. Advantage Memphis.   

DALLAS is 2-11 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 11-2 ATS  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 19-7 ATS   when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - poor rebounding team - out-rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, after 3 straight games being out-rebounded by opponent by 10 or more are 4-23 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.3 ppg. 

NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 21-6 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.4 ppg. 

Play on Grizzlies to cover 

 Philadelphia won the first meeting in this back to back series 127-124 and Im betting on a close game again, but Im expecting the  Hornets explosive  offense to be the difference maker  with  some key shots late that gets us the cover and even possible su win. Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

CHARLOTTE is 30-15 ATS  versus sub par offensive teams - scoring 108 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 5-16 ATS versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 8-20 ATS   in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.  76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

 NBA team (CHARLOTTE) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, first half of the season are 47-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more 3 straight games are 10-32 SU L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

BOSTON is 41-66 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better . 

Celtics are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

The Lakers offense is very cohesive at the moment  as they rank 4th in ppg offense and they have been pressing with the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA, but on the flip-side are ranked 28th in D ppg allowed.  Im betting the Lakers continue to run and gun and for the Celtics to have to reciprocate or be blown off the court. This Im betting results in a higher scoring affair that eclipses this offered total. BOSTON is 25-14 OVER   as an underdog over the last 2 seasons  with a combined average of 228 ppg scored in those 39 games.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 41-16 OVER L/25 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 67-31 OVER L/25 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Golden State Warriors after defeating and ending the Suns huge winning streak, came out the next time out, and looked asleep at the wheel especially on defense as they suffered a upset loss to the Spurs. Tonight Im betting on a bounce back effort behind the leagues No.1 ppg allowed defense  and defensive rating. Meanwhile, their opponents the visiting Magic own the leagues 25th ranked offense, and Im betting they continue struggle enough to help keep this combined score on the low side of the this offered total. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Under is 7-0 in Warriors last 7 games following a ATS loss.Under is 3-0-1 in Warriors last 4 games as a home favorite.

GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 UNDER  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 14-2 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive unders this season with a combined average of 208.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a struggling  team (25% or less ) are 30-9 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 209.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - struggling  team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 41-15 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 206.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

After starting their season with 10 home wins in 11 outings as hosts the Blazers have now lost two straight at home, but with CJ McCollum expected back in the lineup tonight Im betting on a motivated effort here against a Clippers side that has failed to cover 8 of their L/10 overall and  5 of 8 road games this season. Add to that Portland has revenge on board for a 111-92 loss back in late October. and we will back a motivated side Note:NBA team (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite are 34-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

LA CLIPPERS are 14-25 ATS   when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

 NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 245 points or more are 48-10 L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on Portland to cover 

The Suns had an extensive winning streak end last time out vs Golden State, and did not eclipse the century mark in points for just the 2nd time in their L/20 games. Im now expecting a bounce back behind the  4th fastest pace in the league and a offense that ranks 5th in the NBA   Meanwhile, San Antonio has been in a rhythm lately on offense scoring 116, 114, 112 points in their L/3 trips to the hardwood, and will once again have to be aggressive offensively or be blown of the court. Im betting the Suns come out here and explode offensively even without Booker in the lineup and for the Spurs to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own in speedy fashion behind the 5th fastest pace in a tilt that I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

Over is 7-2-1 in Spurs last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 3-1-1 in Spurs last 5 games following a ATS win.

Over is 6-1 in Suns last 7 games as a favorite.Over is 6-2 in Suns last 8 home games.Over is 19-7 in Suns last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a ATS loss

Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

NBA team (SAN ANTONIO) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, a lower tier team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 224.9 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, with a losing record are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 232.2  ppg.

Play OVER

The Bucks rank 8th in pace and 8th in offensive output in the NBA, while, Cleveland runs at a slower pace and ranks 2nd in ppg allowed. However, from a head to head perspective Im expecting the Bucks to dictate the pace and to force the slower but capable Cavs offense to have to speed their game up and produce above their averages offensively. My projections are estimating a score in the high 218-220 range giving us more than full possession value on this totals offering according to my thesis which is based on various head to head matchup probabilities. 

Bickerstaff is 12-2 OVER  in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 220.5 ppg scored.

Budenholzer in his L/44 i n home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game as the coach of MILWAUKEE has seen a combined average score of 216.4 ppg scored.Budenholzer in his L/86) versus sub par offensive teams - scoring 108 points/game or less as the coach of MILWAUKEE has seen a combined average of 220.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Over is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 41-16 OVER L/25 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee. 

Play OVER

These teams both  come in here on 8 game losing streak and Im betting both know this is one of their few winnable games on their schedule and will be primed to compete. The Thunder are well rested and have the edge according to my projections taking points.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 ATS ( in road games after scoring 95 points or less over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out vs Memphis in a ugly 152-79 loss. 

NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 5-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on Thunder to cover 

The Pelicans, 4-2 over their last six games, go against a Houston side that has won 5 straight. It must be noted that 3 of the Houston wins came again Orlando and two vs Oklahoma State teams that have shown a great deal of futility.  Both teams are in good  overall form for a win loss perspective, but Im betting that my power rankings adjustments , that pin point New Orleans as the superior side will get my money. From a SRS perspective New Orleans ranks 26th in the NBA at -5.39 while Houston ranks 28th with a -8.62 . Even with home court edges considered the visiting Pelicans are the superior side with a 55% expectation ratio. HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS   as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON is 10-32 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 9-26 ATS  after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Pelicans to cover 

The Wizards are coming off a 116-101 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday and have shown themselves to be highly inconsistent of late . Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Meanwhile, the Raptors finally posted a home win with a victory vs Milwaukee last time out. The Raptors have alot of young players but have shown flashes of brilliance and Im betting they have the needed edge to bring the cash in this spot play. 

TORONTO is 21-9 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out . TORONTO is 14-4 ATS after a combined score of 195 points or less over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 195 points or less are 25-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate.

Play on Toronto to cover 

 NBA team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 31-6 L/25 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

I know Cleveland is playing very good defense art the moment, but the Jazz have shot 40% or better from 3-point range in five games this season and are going to bomb from downtown again, because of Cavs go interior D. On the flips die   Utah is recently  gave up 30 or more points each of the final three quarters against Boston -- including 41 in the third quarter and Cleveland as this game goes on should have success in this sport according to my head to head offense vs defense  matchup algorithms. Advantage over.

UTAH is 15-4 OVER  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.6 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 26-13 OVER  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored.  

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 25-6 OVER L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

According to my head to head matchup stats this line is on a low side, and my projections estimate a combined score of 215 or more.  Note: Portland is ranked 28th in overall defensive rating in the NBA and 7th in offensive rating and the average score of their home games comes in at 217.1 ppg. The blazers are off a  sleepy home effort last time out, but Im betting they will be ready to bounce back here with a more aggressive effort vs a Boston team off putting 130 points on the board last time out. Advantage over.

Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 4-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 games as an underdog.

These teams have gone over in 4 straight meetings including last two here in Portland .Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Portland.

PORTLAND is 20-7 OVER after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 27-14 OVER  off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play OVER

HC Kerr knows how to take care of business and Im betting he wont let his team, lose focus here tonight against the visiting Spurs after last nights big win vs the Suns.  I know the Spurs have won 3 straight, but they have been highly inconsistent this season, and do not matchup well here on the road where they are just 3-7 SU on the road. 

GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 ATS versus poor offensive teams - scoring 108 or less  points/game this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.GOLDEN STATE is 13-0 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 ATS after playing a home game this season. GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS  as a favorite this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.2 ppg. 

NBA team vs the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - off a road win by 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 3-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the ppg diff clicking in at -12.4 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points are 24-3 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.1 ppg, which easily qualifies as viable vs this ATS offering. 

Play on Golden State to cover 

 The Warriors have revenge on board for a loss earlier this week to the Suns and will be primed to lay down a beating here in front of their own fans . Shutting Curry down two games in a row is far fetched and with the Warriors playing their best ball at home as is evident by going    11-1 SU at home this season, and 10-2 ATS  Im betting on them covering. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-0 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 31-1 L/25 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11 .

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

The Clippers are in a funk after having lost three games in a row. However, this tilt vs their LA rivals will have them fully awake and ready to compete . I know LeBron James is back for the Lakers, but he's starting to show his age of late and is not the game changer he used to be. 

 Lakers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games. Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Lakers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite. LA LAKERS are 2-14 ATS  after allowing 95 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win. Lakers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordL.

CLIPPERS are 16-3 ATS  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

.LA CLIPPERS is 6-1 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons

NBA Road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

LA Clippers to cover 

Mavericks have not faired well at home from a betting backers perspective going  3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. They did win last time out but that has consistently not be a recipe for success as   they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. Yes, the Mavs really put a beat down the Pelicans last on Wednesday night  but Im betting they wont be able to repeat that performance  after Dallas shot a franchise-record 68.7 percent from the floor  in that last game. A Mavericks  Regression to the mean gives the Pelicans an edge on this line.   DALLAS is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 6-16 ATS  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (DALLAS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 9-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Pelicans to cover 

Miami owns the 4th best ppg defense in the league and 4th best SRS , as compared to Indiana that owns the 14th ranked ppg defense and 10th ranked SRS. Both sides are struggling but from a matchup data comparison the superior side is the Heat even  with Jimmy Butler out. Take the points. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite are 45-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Miami to cover 

Washington  is now one of the top teams in the East, and must be respected at home as short favorites. The Wizards snapped Cleveland’s four game win streak back at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse back on November 10, and Im betting they stop their current run at 3 games in this spot play. 

Washington has won the L/4 meetings between these sides and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening. Cavaliers are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

WASHINGTON is 16-3 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 15-45 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Portland has thrived at home where they are 10-1 SU this season, and they must be respected here as hosts as short chalk vs a Spurs side, that is just 2-7 on the road this season and   9-24 ATS   against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

PORTLAND is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons. PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS n home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less  free throws/game this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.4 ppg. 

Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset win as an underdog, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 46-82 L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

Because of their physicality and sometimes staunch defensive play the Knicks matchup well vs a Bulls side that plays  at a slow pace. Sprinkle in the home court edge and Im betting we see a possible upset tonight and more importantly a cover as we are concerned. NY has won and covered the L/3 meetings in the Big apple. 

NEW YORK is 20-8 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.NEW YORK is 20-3 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New York.

NBA home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, first half of the season are 55-20 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NY Knicks 

Charlotte runs and guns with wreck-less abandon behind the leagues most productive offense  but  don't take very good care of their defensive responsibilities in transition as they own the worst ppg D in the NBA and off allowing 133 and 146 points . Meanwhile, on the flip-side their hosts the Bucks rank 9th in offensive output in the league and 9th in overall defensive rating. Bucks are 4-0 /SU ATS in their last 4 games overall winning by DD margins.

CHARLOTTE is 14-25 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 28-1 L25 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 ppg which qualifies on this offered ATS line. 

New Orleans has been playing better lately , but according to my power rankings are not equipped to face the style of hoops the Mavs implement. I know the inconsistent Mavericks do not inspire bettors, but they have an edge here tonight and Im recommending we back them. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. DALLAS is 28-15 ATS  as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 7-1 L/8 on this series SU. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 32-7 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, with a losing record are 8-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Houston has had a good run of late, winning 3 straight, and last time out showed a strong defensive posture allowing just 89 points and Im expecting more of the same here vs a Thunder side, that has not scored above the 99 point plateau in 10 of their L/19 with only 1 of the other 9 games seeing more than 105 point scored and own the 30th ranked offensive output in the league. Advantage under.

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER  against Northwest division opponents this season with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 UNDER when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 199.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams (33% or less), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 46-12 UNDER for a 79% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Heat are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.

CLEVELAND is 28-46 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.Cavaliers are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Cavaliers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Cavaliers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Cavaliers are 1-12 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Miami.

Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

The Timberwolves  are playing very good ball at the moment having won seven  games  in eight tires  but go against a  Wizards side that matches up well against them and that  has lost just twice in nine games  this season as a host. Home court advantage will prevail on a short chalk line. 

WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS  versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.Timberwolves are 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Washington.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 29-7 SU L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate with average margin ppg diff clicking in at +7.3

Play on Washington to cover 

Detroit has been competitive of late despite of dropping 6 straight SU. Meanwhile, Portland despite of a 3 game losing streak  play their best hoops at home where they own a 9-1 record and my power rankings suggest a conclusive win for the Blazers here tonight. 

The Pistons rank 29 in net defensive rating, and 28th in SRS (-8.23 ) while the Blazers rank 4th in offense rating and 15th in SRS ( 0.84) . Add in home court edges and this line according to my numbers should be of the lower DD variety giving us value at anything under -10. 

 SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average .

DETROIT is 2-15 ATS  after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.6.

NBA team (PORTLAND) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

The Knicks run a slow pace ranking 22nd in the NBA and tonight against a  Brooklyn side with far more offensive weapons I expect the Knicks to turn this in to a slow grinding affair. This Im betting has a direct effect on the combined score staying on the low side of the offered number. 

Note: Brooklyn ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Under is 10-4-1 in Nets last 15 home games.Under is 7-3 in Nets last 10 games as a home favorite. Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

NEW YORK is 8-1 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 33-16 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 season for a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 105 points or less this season with a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 road games.Under is 9-1 in Knicks last 10 overall.Under is 9-1 in Knicks last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games as an underdog.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BROOKLYN) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 64-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 The Spurs may not inspire bettors, but they actually matchup well against the Wizards from a style of play perspective, and must be respected as underdog vs a Wizards side, that has failed to cover in 7 of 11 road games this season. After upsetting the Celtics last time out and a taken part in a competitive game vs the Suns a couple games back the well rested Spurs in their current form look dangerous from a underdog perspective on their own home floor.  Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Wizards are 0-21SU  L/21 visits to San Antonio. 

SAN ANTONIO is 24-13 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. 

Wizards are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs 

Houston is off a back forth offensive slugfest last time out and Im betting on a precipitous letdown here from an offensive standpoint. This in itself will make this a lower scoring affair , much like when they teams played last , where the Thunder took a 101-89 victory.  HOUSTON is 14-4 UNDER   after scoring 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

The Thunder rank 29th in ppg scored and 12 in ppg allowed.  

Under is 8-0 in Thunder last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

  HOUSTON is 14-4 UNDER  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored.   

HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER   at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 214 ppg scored.  Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

Under is 14-3-1 in Rockets last 18 games as a home favorite.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY/HOUSTON ) - in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams (33% or less), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 44-12 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.

Play UNDER

The Minnesota Timberwolves matchup well here vs a Indiana side on tired legs  that is off playing at home last night vs the Bucks . Things don't look to get much better for a Indiana side that is  shooting at below 34 percent from behind the arc  which  ranks in the lower-half of the NBA. Thats not a good omen for the Pacers vs a Wolves D  allowing an average of  just 31.9 percent from long range, third-best in the NBA. The Wolves grabbed their  seventh win in the last eight games and are in top form and very much have an edge here in this current form. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more are 33-2 L/25 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover (up to -3 ) 

Charlotte is a side that has flown under the radar this season, as is evident by their recent 8-2 run that has seen them cash 8 of those tilts behind the No.1 ranked offense in the NBA . Meanwhile, Chicago is getting huge accolades, but have recently looked sub par losing 3 of their L/4 abd look vulnerable here vs a side that can light the board up very quickly making them strong back door cover candidates and very possible SU pup winners  .  

CHICAGO is 7-18 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 29-14 ATS  versus sub par  offensive teams - scoring 108 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons.. Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after allowing 120 points or more are 40-13 L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA team vs the money line (CHARLOTTE) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 235 points or more 2 straight games are 29-7 L/25 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with Charlotte to cover 

I know Detroit does not inspire bettors but they have been mostly competitive of late late covering 7 of their L/11 games, and actually matchup well from a style perspective (system) vs the Lakers . Tonight Davis is expected back in the lineup for the Lakers, but James will probably skip this game. However, Davis will have some rust on and may not get his usual minutes as Vogel looks to keep his brittle star from any more extended side line time. Line moves have prompted me to take a contrarian stance here with the Pistons.

LA LAKERS are 0-9 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making 43% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons.LA LAKERS are 8-22 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.LA LAKERS are 11-29 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons

DETROIT is 9-1 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons

Favorites (LA LAKERS) - after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 43 points or less in the first half last game are 17-43 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - after allowing 63 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 48-220 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover 

Milwaukee has been playing well lately , but from a matchup perspective will have their hands full here vs a Pacers side that is showing some tenacious work both defensively and around the rim and under the glass in recent efforts. I gage up-trending teams in a specified chart that I use, and right now the Pacers qualify as a play on side getting points at home. 

Bucks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. MILWAUKEE is 8-24 ATS  after 3 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 10-24 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Pacers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, first half of the season are 70-26 L/5 seasons for 73% conversion rate.

Revamped Golden State has built back better, and now sport a top tier D, that compliments a strong offense. However it is their D, that shines and stands out the most, allowing just 100.9 ppg this season, ranking 1st in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers key to success has been their defense for a while now ranking 3rd in ppg allowed. The Clippers know they cannot run and gun with the Warriors thus Im expecting a slowed down game plan from them today, in a contest that will feature strong D, and a combined score that stays on the low side of this offered  Totals number.

Under is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 22-8 in Warriors last 30 road games.

Under is 9-4-1 in Clippers last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a good 3PT defense (33% or less), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 28-6 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

My projections make this Total closer to 209 thus giving us more than full possession value to the over. Over is 9-4 in Magic last 13 road games.

CLEVELAND is 8-0 OVER in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 237 ppg. 

ORLANDO is 13-4 OVER  when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored.Over is 9-1 in Magic last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. is 20-8 OVER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 season with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ORLANDO) - off a home loss, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 51-16 OVER L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less  PPG differential) are 38-14 OVER L/25 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Suns 15 game win streak is in jeopardy tonight, as they play this game against a top tier Brooklyn side  on the road on tired legs after playing last night . Brooklyn ha won the L/2 meetings here in the Big Apple and get the nod again. Suns are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

BROOKLYN is 15-4 ATS against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams (BROOKLYN) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, in November games are 30-12 L/5 seasons for 72% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game are 57-100 L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

Two teams playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum go head to head tonight in the Mile High city. The Bucks are on a 5 game win streak, while Denver has lost 5 straight. With that said, I still like the Nuggets chances here to cover, as playing in this altitude is never easy out for any team. Note: Nikola Jokic is questionable but reports from insiders close to the team say he will prob start tonight. 

Malone is 37-19 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.

MILWAUKEE is 15-27 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 4-14 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 11-30 ATS   off 3 or more consecutive home wins. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-30 ATS L/41  off 3 or more consecutive home wins.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - after allowing 63 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 38-16 L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

Atlanta has won 6 straight games but playing on the road is not a strength of theirs as their 2-8 SU away record would indicate  and Im betting they are at a disadvantage vs a Grizzlies side that has won 6 of 10 home games this season.  Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games.Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

MEMPHIS is 15-5 ATS ( when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons

NBA team (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, first half of the season are 44-17 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in five consecutive games, in non-conference games are 42-13 L/25 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover 

Atlanta ranks 6th in ppg in the NBA and 21st in ppg allowed  while Memphis their hosts rank 7th in ppg scored in the league and 30th in ppg allowed with 7 of their L/9 games seeing a combined core of 227 or more points going on the board. Tonight Im betting on a rinse and repeat offensive performance from  the Grizzlies and enough efficiency from the Hawks for this offered total to be eclipsed. 

Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 overall.

MEMPHIS is 21-7 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 235.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 80-37 OVER L/ 5seasons for a 69% conversion rate with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ATLANTA) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game are 66-33 L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 230.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Wolves have been playing some great ball but so have Charlotte who has won 7 of their 8 SU/ATS. Two teams with momentum but Im betting home court advantage is the edge breaker here. MINNESOTA is 4-14 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 9-29 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams (CHARLOTTE) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, in November games are 29-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The Knicks ability to slow this game down (Ranking 22nd in pace) and to play hardcore D, will give them the edge here against a Suns team that is playing pedal to metal hoops of late as is evident by their 14 game win streak . I know the Suns are red hot, but after exerting that kind of relentless pressure , exhaustion eventually sets in , and here against what can be a physical Knicks side they could find the sledding tougher than anticipated.Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

NEW YORK is 32-19 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 season. Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Home teams vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - off a home win against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less are 28-6 L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

Minnesota is playing at a high level right now having won 4 straight games, while Miami despite of their top tier status are on tired legs as they play their 3rd road game in 5 nights and vulnerable vs a motivated team with momentum playing at home. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 95 points or less are 33-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a losing record are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Minnesota has won the L/2 meetings here at home in this series.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Grizzlies have won three of their past four games, while the Raptors have lost three of the first four games on a six-game road trip. These teams are playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum and with that said the home side get the nod on a short chalk line.  note:  The Raptors have played the past three games without OG Anunoby (hip pointer). He is averaging a team-best 20.1 points in 15 games.\ Without him the lineup the Raptors are at a disadvantage. Raptors are rested but that has not been a good omen for them recently as they are  are 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 2 days rest.

ORONTO is 7-18 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.

teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 29-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 235 points or more are 81-12 L/25 seasons for a 87% conversion rate and ppg diff that clicks in at +9.3 ppg. 

Play on Memphis to cover 

both these sides are operating at high level and both Im betting will be pushed into action tonight in what Im betting will see the combined score push into the upper 215+ area which projects an over wager cashing. Yes, I know both defenses are playing well but an aggressive posture by these teams will push is over the offered number.

MIAMI is 8-1 OVER  in non-conference games this season with the average combined score clicking in at 220.7 ppg. Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as an underdog.Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

MINNESOTA is 11-2 OVER  after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored.  Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MIAMI) - a very good team (+7  or more PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 32-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate wih the average combined score clicking in at 233.4 ppg. 

Over  is 6-0 L/6 meetings overall in this series.

Play on the OVER 

Washington makes sure they take advantage of lower tier teams  like New Orleans and they almost never asleep against sub par sides. Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Wizards are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Wizards are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Wizards are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in New Orleans.

NEW ORLEANS is 7-17 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  NEW ORLEANS is 1-8 ATS   after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential) are 31-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Wizards to cover 

The Lakers are currently not operating optimally as is evident by losing 4 of their L/5 games wiht the the one win coming against the lowly Pistons as they came back from a DD deficit.  than after that game they played a hard fought affair vs the Knicks an lost 106-100 which sets them up to come in to this their 5 straight road game on tired legs which makes them vulnerable to a down game, vs a Indiana side that plays their best hoops at home where they have won 4 straight tilts.  .Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Lakers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.

LA LAKERS are 2-16 ATS  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 season.LA LAKERS are 4-13 ATS  after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.Lakers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Lakers exerted alot of energy in a brawl filled  comeback win against the Detroit Pistons last time out and will now be in an emotional letdown spot vs a hungry NY Knicks side that is desperate for momentum. 

NEW YORK is 31-19 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Thibodeau is 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of NEW YORK. 

Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.Lakers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New York. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. LA LAKERS are 2-15 ATS  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons. Vogel is 5-16 ATS against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of LA LAKERS.

NBA Road underdogs (LA LAKERS) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 31-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Detroit took part in a big brawl against the Lakers last time out. They also blew a big lead for a loss and will now want some sort of redemption. Meanwhile, with Miami knowing they should not overlook this opponent, and they themselves off a loss, Im betting the Heat will come out here firing bullets, and Motown will have to respond with some fireworks fo their own or be blown off the court in classic chase action -which will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Heat last 11 games as a road favorite.MIAMI is 18-7 OVER  versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored.MIAMI is 11-1 OVER  as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.8 ppg scored. MIAMI is 18-4 OVER after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222 ppg. 

DETROIT is 9-0 OVER  after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.8 ppg scored.Casey is 34-19 OVER  in home games after a game where they covered the spread as the coach of DETROIT.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play OVER

The Suns romped to a big DD win last night and are currently firing on cylinders behind the 4th best ppg offense and 5th ranked pace. Note:PHOENIX is 13-4 OVER  after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.6 ppg scored in the 17 game sample size . Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 9-4 in Suns last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Meanwhile,  San Antonio has allowed 115+ ppg at home this season, and rank 24th overall in the NBA in ppg allowed and rank 4th in pace which sets up for what I expect will be a speedy game that will eclipse this offered totals number. Over is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 home games

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - a very good team (+7 or more  PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 31-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate with the combined average score of 233 ppg going board.

Play OVER 

After. a fast start to their season the Knicks have now lost 6 of their L/10 and are not looking cohesive especially in the offensive end of the court  averaging just 101.9 ppg during their current sub par 10 game run. Meanwhile, the Bulls are now in top form behind some tremendous defensive play and clutch offense. Note: The Bulls have  held their opp to  a 44.4%  FG conversion rate while ranking eighth best  in Defensive Rating, allowing 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  With revenge on board, for a earlier 103-104 loss to the Knicks Im expecting a redemption run here tonight and a subsequent win and cover at home for a Bulls side that has covered 11 of their L/16 overall. 

Interesting anomaly -CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons

NBA Road underdogs (NEW YORK) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 8-29 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago to cover 

Because the Suns are red hot there is a premium being added to their chalk lines  giving us an edge in spot situations. I know the Suns have revenge on board for a home loss to the Nuggets from late in October , but Denver matches up well from a style of play perspective and must be respected getting points . I also know that these two teams are currently playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, but it must be noted Malone is 14-4 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses as the coach of DENVER. Meanwhile, PHOENIX is 3-14 ATS L/17 in home games after 8 or more consecutive wins . 

Suns are also 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 29-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - good rebounding team - giving up 11 or less off. rebounds/game on the season, on Sunday games are 112-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. 

Take the points with Denver 

Lakers Key starters Davis and James is they play today vs the Pistons will see limited time because of injuries and the team as a whole, have shown a lack of chemistry and determination and are fade material here in Motown tonight. LA has also just 1-4 SU on the road this season, and don't deserve this much respect based on brand recognition along. No not even against the lowly Pistons. 

LA LAKERS are 0-8 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making 43% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons. LA LAKERS are 8-21 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

DETROIT is 19-8 ATS  off a home loss over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 3-0 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, with a losing record are 42-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover 

Dallas is off two exhausting back and forth losses to the Phoenix Suns and could find themselves vulnerable here on tired legs in a letdown spot . Meanwhile, Im betting the Clippers will be very focused as they  get back on track after a lackluster 94-81 loss at New Orleans lat time out. These clunkers in the NBA happen all the time even to well coached teams like the Clippers so I wont take a-lot of time to over analyze, especially considering that was the Clippers 5th game in 7 nights .With Dallas young star Luka Doncic  hobbled by an ankle injury and less than 100% if he plays the Mavs will be at a disadvantage. 

Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Clippers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.

NBA Favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

Sacramento enters this game ranked 27th in ppg defense and rank 7th in pace. Meanwhile, Utah ranks 3rd in offense behind a mid range pace as compared to the league. Using these numbers, and head to head style of play factors Im projecting a combined score in the mid 220s giving us value with an over wager. 

 SACRAMENTO is 18-6 OVER  in home games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored. Walton is 29-12 OVER   in home games after playing a home game as the coach of SACRAMENTO with a combined average of 232.4 ppg scored. Over is 9-2 in Kings last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home which was the case last time out, which from my perspective will make the Kings more aggressive especially in an environment that has nothing to lose written all over it.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 24-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - playing on back-to-back days, a struggling  team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 102-52 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and must be respected here vs a very good but exhausted Miami side that will be playing their 7th game in 10 nights. Redemption now on board for a 112 -97 loss in South Florida a couple of days ago. 

Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.

WASHINGTON is 15-5 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasonWASHINGTON is 31-19 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON is 23-10 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 9-28 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in November games are 30-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover  

Indiana made a late run last night in a loss to Charlotte but they are well conditioned and will be ready in a friendly home environment  to take down a Pelicans side off an upset win last night. Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. (5 of those losses came by DDS)

NEW ORLEANS is 0-9 ATS  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -17.3 ppg. 

NBA team (INDIANA) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 29-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Bulls are playing much better hoops but they are in a bad spot here at the tail end of their West Coast rodeo tour as they play their 5th straight road game in the  thin air of Mile High city. Im betting on Denver here taking advantage of their tired hosts. Denver has won 19 of the L/23 meetings here in Denver. 

Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DENVER) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in November games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Denver to cover 

The Celtics enter this game against the Lakers with a  4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a favorite. Celtics are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and offer us an edge at home a short line. 

BOSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons.

Lakers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

LA LAKERS are 2-13 ATS in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons. LA LAKERS are 5-15 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in November games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

Charlotte has won 4 straight games while Indiana has lost 2 straight. Ill chase the momentum here and the side playing in top from at home.

INDIANA is 15-27 ATS L/42 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 5-18 ATS ( after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 28-12 ATS   when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CHARLOTTE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in November games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, first half of the season are 47-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

TORONTO is 24-11 OVER  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average for 225.6 ppg . Over is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 Thursday games. Over is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games following a straight up loss.

Over is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 77-37 OVER L/5 seasons for 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. are 56-24 OVER L/25 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Toronto has fallen from their previous championship levels but they are still a talented team. Yes, they are in a funk, but correcting their current skid is not going to be problem going forward if they can stay relatively healthy. As for tonights battle against top tier opponent Utah, Im betting they will be competitive  and get us the cover. Note: Raptors are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Utah.

Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.

Play on the Raptors to cover 

The Clippers are in strong current form having  won 8 of their L/9 games overall. Meanwhile, Memphis has been less than consistent and are off snapping a 3 game losing streak. 

From a SRS perspective the Clippers are ranked 4th in the NBA ( 6.57) while the Grizzlies are ranked 22nd ( -2.31). Even with home court advantage, the Clippers according to the data is the superior team even with their injury issues and the Grizzlies playing with a healthy group tonight. 

The Grizzlies took out the the Clippers in Los Angeles on Oct. 23, 120-114 and now with revenge on board for the visitors a return of the favor is a strong possibility. 

LA CLIPPERS are 44-28 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 57-5 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 7-30 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Both these sides to do inspire me, but what does stand out, is that the Wolves are not a side that should be laying points under any circumstances in their current form even at home vs another struggling side. From a SRS perspective - Spurs are ranked 23rd while the Wolves were ranked 24th. Advantage Spurs. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Timberwolves are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

  MINNESOTA is 7-21 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. is 9-21 ATS  after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. MINNESOTA is 9-23 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 31-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

My projections make this total a little low, as my estimates says we should see a combined score into lower 220s. 

Over is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

PORTLAND is 14-4 OVER  in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined 233.4 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 41-19 OVER  after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 on the opening line (CHICAGO) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 36-11 OVER L/25 seasons for a  77% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER 

Houston may not inspire bettors especially after the ugly effort they out out last time on the court in a 136-102 loss to Memphis and their current 12 game losing streak and 1-13 overall record but it must be noted that    their one win came this same Oklahoma City side, and repeat performance is not out of the question. 

HOUSTON is 11-0 ATS  L/11 in road games after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more . 

NBA Road teams (HOUSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 52-24 ATS L/25 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams (HOUSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 31-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with the Rockets 

These are Two talented teams playing top tier hoops, but home court advantage will be the difference maker here this evening where Brooklyn is 10-4 SU  with the average margin of victory coming by 5 ppg. Brooklyn ha won the two most recent meetings  in this series by big DD deficits. Rinse and repeat at least on the victory front.  BROOKLYN is 9-1 ATS  against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  BROOKLYN is 13-1 ATS  after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.   

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, first half of the season are 46-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

 NBA  Home teams (BROOKLYN) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, in November games are 27-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rare for bettors.

 Play on Brooklyn to cover  

The Raptors have lost 4 of their L/5 games and in no way should be looked at as contenders . This team does not resemble their championship side, and despite of being competitive are fade material in tonight in this spot play on tired legs as they play their 4th game in 6 nights including their 3rd road game in that period.  In their loss to the Pistons last time exhaustion looked to be a major factor and Im betting that will factor in what Im betting will be loss tonight. Yes, I know the Blazers have also had a brutal schedule, but playing at home where they have won 5 straight tilts will be the difference maker. 

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (TORONTO) - a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after allowing 125 points or more are 3-33 L/25 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.6 ppg. 

Play on Portland to cover 

After a slow start the Suns have exploded into top form and deserve respect here as short road  favs . The Suns have won 8 straight and have covered this offered spread all 8 times. Rinse and repeat vs an inferior opponent according to my power rankings. 

PHOENIX is 7-0 ATS in November games this season.  PHOENIX is 8-0 ATS  in road games after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 9-23 ATS  against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Finch is 0-8 ATS  versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season as the coach of MINNESOTA.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 5-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Road favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - after successfully covering the spread in 7 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 27-1 L/25 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.3 ppg which qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on Phoenix to cover 

Minnesota has allowed 4 of their L/6 opponents to breach the 123 point plateau and tonight my projections estimate the Suns will produce  a +119 to +129 point offensive output which gives an edge to this offered total being eclipsed. 

Minnesota owns a 24th ranking in Defensive Net rating and are ranked 9th in pace. 

Phoenix ranks 3rd in offensive ppg and 4th in pace. 

MINNESOTA is 16-3 OVER  after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 season with a combined average of 241.1 ppg scored. 

MINNESOTA is 44-25 OVER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg going on the board in those 69 tilts. 

NBA  Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MINNESOTA) - after one or more consecutive overs, a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) are 24-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rare for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 31-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Wizards enter this game in top form as is evident by their current 4 game win streak including victories in 7 of their L/9 trips to the court. Meanwhile, the Pelicans ended a 9 game losing streak last time out vs Memphis last time out as underdogs. With said, I expect the Wizards will not overlook tonights opposition after seeing what they did to the sleeping Grizzlies last time out and will be very prepared to take down their opponents here even though their big star Bradley Beal is out. 

NEW ORLEANS is 9-27 ATS L/36 in road games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog.NEW ORLEANS is 3-14 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less  points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

WASHINGTON is 10-1 ATS  after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 15-2 ATS   after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 37-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.5 ppg. 

Play on Washington to cover 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams scored 105 points or less are 25-1 L/25 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.3 ppg. 

Cleveland is operating at a very high level and have won 6 of their L/7 games and from a a betting perspective are 10-1-1 ATS L/12 as they are being consistently under rated by the lines-makers. I know Boston has revenge on board for a home loss to Cleveland a couple of days ago (91-89). But  in the words of Mick Jagger of the Rolling Stones you don't always get what they want. With that said, Ill take the points with the the upstart side.

BOSTON is 9-20 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 7-17 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. 

CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season.CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season. Bickerstaff is 15-4 ATS   in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games in all games he has coached. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 43-13 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after a combined score of 185 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 195 points or less are 10-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Sacramento has lost 4 straight games and nothing is coming easy for them at this time, so their status as Road chalk here at this offering is dubious even against the Pistons, who incidentally have won 2 of their L/3 and have been competitive in 4 straight games with one loss coming to top tier Brooklyn by just 6 points. Advantage resides with a Pistons side that has cashed 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series  overall. 

Kings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite.Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall

SACRAMENTO is 4-14 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. 
 SACRAMENTO is 7-20 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Detroit to cover 

Denver is heating up and have won 4 straight games, and are now playing optimally making them viable favs here vs a inconsistent Portland side that is now playing their  4th straight road game on tired legs . The exhaustion from their current away trek and the difficulties of playing on the Mile high City makes the Blazers vulnerable . Denver is 6-1 at home this season, with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 7.9 ppg. My projections make this a +8 or more victory for the Nuggets giving us value with this line. 

Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

Favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) - after allowing 105 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 95 points or less are 32-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 ppg which qualifies on the ATS line.

Play on Denver to cover 

Denver s top tier D, have not allowed 9 of their L/12 opponents to breach the 98 point plateau ranking first in ppg allowed and ranking 26th in pace behind the leagues 27th worst ppg offense. Meanwhile, Portland averages 104 ppg on the road this season, but my projections estimate at least 6% drop in output here based on a analytical chart I use   which equates, into a 97.76 team score , while Denver is estimated to score 107 points,  giving us more than a full possession advantage on this totals offering making this a viable bet based in my projections, 

DENVER is 8-1 UNDER   vs poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season with a combined average of 196.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 7-0 UNDER  as a favorite this season with a combined average of 196 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 55-25 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Celtics are off a big win in OT last night vs Milwaukee. With that said, Im now betting on them being in an emotional and physical letdown spot as they play back to back nights on very tired legs. Thats a good omen for a Cavaliers  cover with what has recently been a hard working Cleveland Cavaliers side with a never say die attitude. The Cavaliers  have also been  consistently under rated by the lines-makers, as is evident by the following trends.Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and longer term are  10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Celtics are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Cleveland.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CLEVELAND) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, first half of the season are 65-24 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Take the points with Cleveland 

The Wizards are beginning to play at a top tier level, while Orlando continues to have consistency issues thanks to what my own observations is a lack of chemistry sprinkled in with bad coaching decisions. I know Bradley Beal will be out tonight for the Wizards but they are still capable road chalk here at anything under -5.

WASHINGTON is 15-2 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 35-2 L/25 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +11.5 ppg which qualifies on this ATS line. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams scored 105 points or less are 24-1 L/25 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.3 ppg which qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on Washington to cover 

The Sixers are on a 3 game losing streak and are without their top player Joel Embiid (Covid) and are vulnerable again to suffering a 4th straight defeat. Meanwhile, Indiana is starting to ramp up and are playing decent ball at the moment as they come off a win vs the Utah Jazz by a 111-100 count as DD underdogs. INDIANA is 17-4 ATS l/21  off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more points. 

Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Pacers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

76ers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a road underdog.76ers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Mavs despite of having talent are an inconsistent team. Luka Ducic is an incredibly talented player but the group around him are not 100% in vibe with this young superstar so thats why the uneven efforts especially from a betting perspective .   Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and  are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.DALLAS is 4-16 ATS   when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.  I know the Mavericks have taken the season's first two games in the Lone Star State rivalry, winning 104-99 as hosts on Oct. 28 and 109-108 on the road just six days later, but after watching both tilts is become obvious this is a coin flip  affair, making getting points golden in my humble betting opinion with the home dog . 

Spurs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS   when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, first half of the season are 63-23 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Sacramento has lost 5 of their L/7 games and 3 straight  while their hosts the Thunder have won 3 straight and are currently in top form and have covered 6 of their L/7 and now show value as home dogs. Note: Kings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite.  SACRAMENTO is also 4-13 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a losing record are 20-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

This the Bucks 4th straight road game against quality opposition and now Im betting they may exhibit exhaustion as the game progresses giving an edge to the home side. Meanwhile, Boston has been very competitive lately going 3-0-1 ATS L/4 overall. BOSTON is 5-0 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons and Im recommending we take the points with the Celtics here. 

MILWAUKEE is 7-23 ATS  after 3 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, first half of the season are 45-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 10-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boston to cover 

The Indiana Pacers struggled in the high altitudes of  Denver against the  Nuggets  despite of not having their  reigning NBA Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic  in the lineup, missing a 3-point attempt in the final second and losing 101-98. Now Im betting on the Pacers being competitive again and getting us the all important cover. Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Pacers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.

Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

INDIANA is 12-3 ATS  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 13-4 ATS  in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 season.

Carlisle is 33-16 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less  turnovers/game as the coach of INDIANA.

NBA  team vs the money line (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 41-21 L/25 seasons for a 65% conversion rate  which qualifies ATS. 

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 38-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Celtics suffered their worst loss of the young season in a 115-83 thrashing by the Raptors on Oct. 22 and now the Celtics will be looking for redemption. However, in the recent past when the Celtics are in revenge mode for a loss of 10 points ore more  they are just 3-12 ATS L/2 seasons.  .BOSTON is also just 4-15 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons and overall are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

Meanwhile, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston and are my selection here taking points based on my power rankings and overall SRS ratings: Boston owns the 17th best mark in the league @-.0.47 --while Toronto is ranked i 7th @ +3.78 giving us value according to those numbers on this line even with home court advantage on the Celtics side.

Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TORONTO) - off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road loss are 23-4 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Rockets have dropped eight consecutive games and closed a recent five-game road trip without a victory and now are suddenly being asked to cover as favorites. Motown may not inspire bettors, but they have shown a few flashes of brilliance this season . Also some bad beats and calls make them look worse than they are. No way a trust the Rockets in the fav role and will back the Pistons here getting points. 

DETROIT is 17-5 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 9-22 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 8-27 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 10-22 ATS versus poor offensive teams - scoring 108 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. Silas is 2-17 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more as the coach of HOUSTON.HOUSTON is 1-10 ATS  in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - out-rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 season.Rockets are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 

Pistons are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Houston.

The Clippers have won 4 straight and are currently in top form. Meanwhile, the Trailblazers have been highly inconsistent this season, and have not shown themselves to be viable bets on the road failing to cover in their L/6 away games. Recent history also favors the Clippers who are 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series at home.  LA CLIPPERS are 41-27 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons 

 NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, first half of the season are 43-16 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.  

NBAHome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 49-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.  

 Play on the Clippers to win