|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-17-21||Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5||35-29||Loss||-110||56 h 21 m||Show|
Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career vs NFC East sides , cashing 4 straight times a s dog including 6 straight victories versus the Dallas Cowboys. I know the Boyz are playing great ball but Belichick is a chess master that must be respected at home . New England has cashed in 5 of their L/6 as home dogs, while the Cowboys are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 after playing the Giants which was the case last week.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season .
NFL non-division road favorite (DALLAS) of more 3 + points coming off three consecutive home games including a SUATS win last time out have failed to cover 14 of the L/15 times for a 93% go against conversion rate.
NFL Road favorites (DALLAS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more point are 18-45 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate.
Play on New England Pats to cover
|10-17-21||Raiders +4 v. Broncos||34-24||Win||100||54 h 15 m||Show|
HC Gruden is now just a memory in the minds of this Las Vegas football group. It's a fresh start for them as they can now concentrate on playing football instead of being involved in a controversial circus. Im still a believer in this Raiders group, and here as 4 point dogs vs a Broncos side that is 0-6 ATS L/6 as division favorites we have an edge taking points. Especially considering that this Denver team has gone 24 straight games without scoring in their first possession of the game , which in itself continually puts them behind the proverbial 8 ball. Note: Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater has failed to cover 7 of 11 home in division games in his NFL career. Raiders are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series and since moving to Las Vegas have won both meetings.
Play on LV Raiders to cover
|10-17-21||Dolphins v. Jaguars +3.5||20-23||Win||100||75 h 30 m||Show|
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London
Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are proving that their college careers may have been over hyped at least at this point in their NFL tenures . However, the duo and their team are desperate for a win, and Im betting on a neutral field vs a Dolphins side that has lost 4 straight we have a situation where a cover is a high potential situation on this line.
It must be noted that Jacksonville will play their 8th game here in the UK, and have been adopted by many British NFL fans . So this is like a defacto home game for the transplanted Jaguars.
Note: QB] 10/12/2021 - Tua Tagovailoa is questionable Sunday vs Jacksonville ( Ribs ) and if he plays will be less than 100%. (Without the young QB in the lineup the Fins have been beaten up by an average of 19 ppg. )
NFL team vs the money line (MIAMI) - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 4-30 L/37 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. (According to this over powering trend we have upset potential)
Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover
|10-14-21||Bucs v. Eagles +7||28-22||Win||100||26 h 47 m||Show|
Philadelphia D has ,held three of its five sides they have faced this season season-low yardage . Thats important against explosive 44 year old future HOF QB Tom Brady and company.
In a historical context is must be noted that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU L/7 in Thursday nighters while Tampa Bay is just 1-7 ATS in these prime time affairs.
Basically at this number we have real value and recommend we take the points here with the home dog. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Buccaneers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Play on Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|10-10-21||Bills +3 v. Chiefs||38-20||Win||100||57 h 53 m||Show|
Buffalo to me is playing as a front runner for a Super Bowl ticket, at least in their current form and have a very good chance a SU victory as dogs here vs KC.
BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 1-11 ATS (L/12 after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games.
Bills QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU in his NFL career against opposition coming off a SUATS win like the Chiefs.
NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 41-11 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover
|10-10-21||Titans -4.5 v. Jaguars||37-19||Win||100||50 h 8 m||Show|
I was never a big Trevor Lawrence fan no matter how well he did at the College level. I still maybe wrong but his style not mix well in the NFL and that has been obvious so far as he continues to be intercepted on a regular basis. Meanwhile last week, the Titans picked up 30 first downs and still found a way to lose vs the Jets in OT. However, Im still in on the Titans this season, and feel strongly they are the better side here. The Titans have victories in seven of their last eight meetings vs the Jaguars, with four of those wins by 21 points or more. Rinse and repeat. Also have not problem fading HC Urban Meyer.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game.JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-0 SU L/3 overall vs Jacksonville.
Play on Tennessee to cover
|10-10-21||Broncos +1 v. Steelers||19-27||Loss||-113||50 h 42 m||Show|
Pittsburgh looks like their in a down cycle this season and continue to deal with a boatload full of injuries. With that said, knowing Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-3 ATS on the road in his career its not a hard decision to back Denver here today. Note: Ben Rothlisberger is 0-5 ATS L/5 starts as a favorite.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.
Tomlin is 9-23 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.
Play on Denver Broncos to cover
|10-07-21||Rams v. Seahawks +2.5||26-17||Loss||-103||13 h 59 m||Show|
According to my projections this game should be closer to a pickem which gives us an edge taking points here this evening. Both sides defences have allowed season highs in 3 straight games. Some may say the Rams D is superiors, but Wilson and can slice and dice the best of stopping units and here at home, Im betting he will along with a run game that should have success.
Seattle QB Russel Wilson is 4-0 ATS at home off a win and 8-2 ATS at home as an underdog including 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays.
Rams are just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in division battles on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when favored. LA RAMS are 3-16 ATS L/19 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. .
Play on Seattle to cover
|10-03-21||Washington Football Team -1 v. Falcons||34-30||Win||100||75 h 3 m||Show|
Washington did not look good last week, in a loss vs Buffalo. Its still early in the season, and some of numbers could easily be skewed or misrepresented . The talent especially on defense remains intact for the football team of DC , and Im betting we see them establish their hard hitting ways this week against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of winning last week lost the stats battle vs the NYG, and their key player QB Matt Ryan looks to be getting more inconsistent with age, and is now owns an overall QB Rating this season of (87.1) which puts him at No. 24 overall in the NFL. With that said, Im betting on the Washington D, to disrupt Ryan and for the Football team to deliver the cash to their backers.
ATLANTA is 15-32 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1992.
NFL team (WASHINGTON) - good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 or more YPP), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Washington to win
|10-03-21||Lions v. Bears -2.5||14-24||Win||100||75 h 46 m||Show|
The Chicago Bears offense and team have been kind of a laughing stock of the early part of this NFL season. Everybody and his dog now wants to take a proverbial piss on Nagy and what many look like a mismanagement of the team, especially on offense. This week I expect instead of Fields under center we s instead get Dalton or Foles, and a team that now has a chip on the shoulders. Remember , pro do not like to be embarrassed, and that Im betting ignites this Bears team , for at least this week.
Detroit has allowed an average of 31.7 ppg this season, and must also be looked upon with extreme suspicion.
DETROIT is 5-16 ATS off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less since 1992.CHICAGO is 18-6 ATS in home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992.
Play on the Chicago Bears to cover
|10-03-21||Titans v. Jets +7.5||24-27||Win||100||75 h 38 m||Show|
Titans coach Mike Vrabel calls Jets' defensive line 'one of the best' and will be that defensive line that will be the difference maker in a cover here today.
First year HCs like NYJ Robert Saleh that are 0-3 SU/ATS to start their seasons are 47-16-2 ATS in non-division games.
NY JETS are 16-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game.
TENNESSEE is 16-32 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season .
NYJ are 4-0-1 ATS AFC South opponents at home.
Titans are 3-10 ATS L/10 vs AFC East.
NFL Favorites (TENNESSEE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 3-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.
NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - terrible passing team ( 5.3 PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense ( 7.3 or more PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.
Play on NY Jets to cover
|09-26-21||Dolphins +4 v. Raiders||28-31||Win||100||55 h 54 m||Show|
The Dolphins (1-1) will be 4-point underdogs on Sunday against the Raiders, a line that is at least partially inflated by the quarterback situation. Miami will play without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa . However, Brisset his back is a viable QB and deserves respect as he is above .500 ATS QB in his career with a 17-16-1 record. Meanwhile, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle injury) is less than 100% and may not play.
Raiders are 0-8 ATS L/8 after playing Pittsburgh.
Flores, meanwhile, is 1-0 against the Raiders. Gruden is 2-5 in his career against the Dolphins.Miami 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in this series.
MIAMI is 15-4 straight up against LAS VEGAS since 1992.
Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover
|09-26-21||Falcons +3 v. Giants||17-14||Win||100||52 h 32 m||Show|
What has me looking at Atlanta this week vs NYG was veteran QB Ryans effort last Sunday vs Tampa Bay that saw him throw for 300 yards in a 48-25 loss at Tampa Bay.Ryan, is showing consistency for his team as it attempts to work its way down the field.Quote: "I think that's a recipe for success moving forward," Ryan said. "The percentages are much higher of converting drives (and) converting third downs when we are at third and five or less, so I think that's been pretty good so far this year." END Quote. Im not a big believer at this time in the Giants. I know both these teams are 0-2, but one looks more viable than the other. Note:NYG Saquon Barkley's rehab and play on the field is still sub par overall. Yes, there have been flashes of brilliance, but he still has a long way to go.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.
Visitor is 8-2 ATS in this series and the Giants are 2-6-1 ATS L/8 as home favorites.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 24-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|09-26-21||Bengals +3 v. Steelers||24-10||Win||100||51 h 15 m||Show|
Steelers are banged up and have a key injury to T.J. Watts (groin injury) and to me have not looked cohesive this season. Something just not right , while the Bengals have shown some grit so far this season. The Bengals snapped a 10-game losing skid to the Steelers in the second meeting last season, a 27-17 win in Cincy and I wont be surprised of QB Joe Burrows and company find a way to get the straight up win here, and more importantly at least get us the cover. Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3.
Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Bengals are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games in September.
Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Play on Cincinnati Bengals to cover
|09-23-21||Panthers v. Texans +8||24-9||Loss||-105||29 h 18 m||Show|
Everyone and his dog loves the Carolina Panthers , and the lines-makers are following suit and almost completely discounting the Texans ability to hang tough here and get the cover. I know their are some negative images put into the minds of the public, because franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson has been made inactive because of on going legal issues . But overall Im betting his absence is actually a good thing and makes this Houston team more cohesive chemistry wise. Ill recommend we take the points here even with Mills in at QB. * By the way Mills is tough as nails, and he will have a pro bowl left tackle in the lineup to keep him afloat here tonight in prime time.
Carolina 0-6 ATS L/6 Thursday nighters.
Texans 8-2 ATS on Thursdays.
NFL home underdog of 7 points or more with a .500 record or better , going against an undefeated side are 31-9 ATS L/40 seasons. .
NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 32-7 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Houston to cover
|09-19-21||Chiefs v. Ravens +4||35-36||Win||100||60 h 21 m||Show|
Everyone and his dog is jumping off the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon. Last week they lost in OT to the Raiders, and now the football world believes in their demise after a sub par 2020 campaign. I however, am not one of those skeptics, and still believe this is a talented team that deserves respect as underdogs at home vs a very public side in KC. Hey I know Patrick Mahomes and company are a top tier group, but they have had problems covering of late in games that are deemed to be considered close by linesmakers like this game . Note: KC is 10-0 SU in regular season tilts but just 0-9-1 ATS in one-score games since the start of last season.
It must also be noted that Ravens QB Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career, while winning 15 of 21 home games His only game as a home dog during that victorious stretch was the season before last . How did he respond to that , well Ill tell you. His team won as 3 point dogs to Football god Tom Brady of New England by a lopsided 37-20 count. Im a believer and will back the Raves to cover.
Harbaugh is 10-2 ATS in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.
Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover
|09-19-21||Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals||33-34||Win||100||57 h 50 m||Show|
Sometimes the pundits make to big a deal of week 1 results, and this is what Im betting into here this week. Minnesota ,looked a little uneasy and made mistakes in their first game against under rated Cincinnati. Penalties and false starts etc,. However, despite of what the so called experts say, they will have a better offensive line this season if they stay healthy, and the D, Im betting can and will deal with the mobile Cards QB Murray. As big chunks of public money come in on the Cards Ill swing the other way with the maligned Vikings. Zimmer is 6-0 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA.
Vikings are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss.
ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS L/18 in home games after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game . Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.Underdog is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Vikings are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Play on the Vikings to cover
|09-19-21||Bengals +2.5 v. Bears||17-20||Loss||-110||54 h 1 m||Show|
Cincinnati has a deep scouting report on Dalton the ex Bengals and current Bears QB starter, and will be well prepared to slow his production options. Plus Chicagos offensive line looks wobbly at best. I also suggest that the Bengals D, is very under rated , and that QB Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could easily be big stories in the NFL this season. With that said, Im betting on Burrows to take advantage of the Bears weak secondary, for big gains, and for the Bengal D to stand tall against a QB thats seen his best days pass him by.
CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS L/20 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game .
NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992 at Chicago.
Play on Cincinnati to cover
|09-16-21||Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team||29-30||Win||100||13 h 59 m||Show|
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, is out with an injury and now Taylor Heinicke will be under center for the Washington Football team . He’s made two NFL starts , both at home that ended in losses and he could easily end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard again.
Judge is 6-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS.
NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons and Giants starting QB was the starter in all those tilts and will be again tonight.
NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 94-160 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-13-21||Ravens v. Raiders +4||27-33||Win||100||36 h 56 m||Show|
Black- and-Silver bring a 5-1 ATS record on Monday night games into this tilts including 3-0 SUATS the last three at home . Im looking for these positive numbers to continue here at Allegiant Stadium vs a banged up Baltimore side missing some key offensive cogs and that was not as potent last season on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 5-10 SUATS L/8 seasons vs the AFC West, including 0-4 ATS when favored by 5 or less points. Raiders QB Carr is 4-2 as a starter on Monday nights, including wins in his past three Monday starts and takes my money here tonight.
Home team is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings in this series.
Play on the Vegas Raiders to cover
|09-12-21||Cardinals v. Titans -3||38-13||Loss||-108||843 h 2 m||Show|
Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 28-1 L/28 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.9 ppg which qualifies on this spread line.
|09-12-21||Jets +4 v. Panthers||14-19||Loss||-104||69 h 32 m||Show|
The new quarterback for the Carolina Panthers Darnold has proven inconsistent during his career. Im betting his inability for stability to continue vs his former team. Considering how well the Jets internal scouting report is on him , this should be a bad bounce back start for the play caller.Matt Rhule is in his second season with Carolina after a 5-11 record in 2020 and I just don't like what they offer overall, even against a revamped Jets side.Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Take the points with the NYJ to cover
|09-12-21||Eagles +3.5 v. Falcons||32-6||Win||100||68 h 27 m||Show|
Philadelphias Jalen Hurts is better than he was at Alabama. Yes I believe he has matured and Im betting after showing signs of brilliance , we will see him shine today behind an under rated group of WRs and backs. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of having a veteran at
Atlanta is 1-10 ATS L/11 as non division fav of 5 points or less.
NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games. are 94-158 ATS L/38 seasons for a 62% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Philadelphia to cover
|09-12-21||Vikings v. Bengals +3||24-27||Win||100||68 h 13 m||Show|
The QB savior of the Bengals Joe Burrows will be Im betting be the difference maker here today.
Dating back to last season, Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Host 6-0 L/6 in this series and the Bengals are 8-2 ATS L/10 as non-conference Home dogs of 3 points or more. Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf and are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1 as well as 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home gams and from a long term perspective are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games in September.
Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover
|09-12-21||Jaguars v. Texans +3||21-37||Win||100||5 h 33 m||Show|
Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence in my humble betting opinion is being over hyped here. The kid was great at Clemson, but Im not sure he is ready to starter in this league just yet. I know QB Dshaun Watson wont be under center for the Texans, but the Texans: 6-0 SU last six games in this series while the Jaguars have lost 7 straight road games and have been a chalk in only two of its last 24 overall trips to the grid-ion , with both of those tilts ending a loss for the Jags. with that said, Ill take the points with the completely disrespected home dog.
NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 360 or more total yards/game, versus division opponents are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.
NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 130-204 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against long term 61% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Texans to cover
|09-09-21||Cowboys +8 v. Bucs||29-31||Win||100||38 h 46 m||Show|
I know the Dallas Cowboys are off a down season, but with a healthy Dak Prescott back behind center Im betting the Cowboys will have a bounce back season, as long as health issues don't rear their ugly head again. I know Mike McCarthy the Cowboys coach did not have a very efficient first season at the helm of Americas team, but the last time one his teams had a sub .500 campaign he bounced back with a 11 win season. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the defending Super Bowl Champs will be Im betting in an emotional hang over mode. Note: Super Bowl champs are 12-24-1 ATS L/ in their first two games of the new season, as 6 or more point favs.
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS L/5 Thursday night home games. Bucs are 0-5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC East competition. Buccaneers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
Boyz are 9-3 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point underdogs. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
McCarthy is 95-66 ATS in games played on a grass field in all games he has coached in his career.
Play on Dallas Cowboys to cover
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs +3||9-31||Win||100||59 h 43 m||Show|
Overall Tampa Bay has had a better season than the KC Chiefs, and deserve respect here on a underdog line playing at home. In last seasons Super /bowl Kansas City had been out-gained the entire contest by the 49ers until a late game-winning 65-yard drive . In truth the wrong team won/ covered and ever since KC has been looked upon in some divine way by the betting public. Something they do not deserve in my humble betting opinion. Yes I know how great a QB Mahomes is, but Tom Brady has far superior experience and now going into this 10th Super Bowl must be considered a NFL prime time super star with god like abilities. Bottom line: Both these teams can score, and both have top teir QBs at the helm of their offense, but to me the difference maker comes on defense. Defense wins championships : Note: Tampa Bay brings the league’s seventh-ranked defense to this big game. With said, it must also be noted that the team with the better D, has won 44 of the L/53 Super Bowls.
|01-24-21||Bills +3 v. Chiefs||24-38||Loss||-100||59 h 59 m||Show|
Two strong teams with two top tier QBs Josh Allen (107.2 QB Rating) , and Patrick Mahomes (108.2 ) go head to head. The game is expected to be close, but I like the Bills here getting points vs a side that 0-8-1 ATS L/9.
Buffalo is 11-5-1 ATS the past couple of seasons as a underdog of 6 or less points.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott 8-1 ATS as a non-division dog vs an above .500 opponent.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
NFL Home teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 3-20 L/37 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.
Play on Buffalo to cover
|01-24-21||Bucs +3.5 v. Packers||31-26||Win||100||49 h 29 m||Show|
The Bucs blitzed Aaron Rodgers on 18-of-41 drop backs in the first game they played against each other, and Im betting that kind of pressure will be on todays agenda. Advantage Bucs as underdogs in a game that could easily be a pickem.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season. TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
NFL Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-14 ATS L/37 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tampa Bay to cover
|01-17-21||Bucs +3 v. Saints||30-20||Win||100||8 h 13 m||Show|
The Saints beat Tom Brady and company have lost both meetings this season but it must be noted that Brady is 18-3 SU revenging a division loss and 13-1 SU/ATS vs sides wtih a .300 record or better with the only loss coming to the Saints this season. Brady has never lost 3 times in a row to any team,. Considering HC Arians has won 16 of 23 road games vs division opposition and Brady seething with retribution at hand Im betting on TB getting us the cover.