Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts -1 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 153 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. The Jags beat the Colts 24-0 earlier this season, and for whatever reason Jacksonville just seems to have their number. The Jags have covered in six straight, and nine of the last 10 head to head meetings dating all the way back to 2016. But as my good friend Lee Corso would say: "not so fast my friend". The home team is 10-0 straight up during that span. While the Colts failed to cover in all but one of their four home wins over Jacksonville, the average margin of victory in those games was over 10 points. Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, and that could change everything. Given Matt Ryan's struggles, we shouldn't be asking him to do too much. Meanwhile Trevor Lawrence threw for 286 yards and a pair of INTs on 25-of-47 passing in a loss to the Texans last week. The Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven on the road. I'll take the home team just to win straight up. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-22 | Manchester City v. Liverpool +0.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Liverpool. So Manchester City looks like an unstoppable force this season, while Liverpool has had a poor start in the Premier League. This has the Citizens pegged as heavy favorites heading to Anfield on Saturday, in a game where a draw would probably suit them just fine. In fact the last two times these teams met in the Premier League the result was a draw. Liverpool also knocked City out of the FA Cup and won the Community Shield versus City. While Pep Guardiola may have the superior squad this season, playing at Anfield is a daunting task. It's been five and a half years since Liverpool lost at home in front of their fans in a Premier League match. Manchester City hasn't won at Anfield since 2003, and that is their only win in 20 visits to Liverpool all time (modern era). GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Golden Knights v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Seattle Kraken are off to a decent (1-1) start to their second season in the NHL. That said they did blow a 4-2 lead in the 3rd period in their season opener, losing 5-4 to Anaheim in overtime. They have been a good bet to the over since joining the league, and we can expect a high score here as they host the VGK. The over is 8-3 in the Golden Knights last 11 versus the Western Conference, and these two teams have gone over in three of four all time meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Winnipeg v. BC -170 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on BC. This is a simple handicap on this game. Winnipeg has already clinched first place, and the Bombers are resting as many players as they can this week. In fact they would like to rest even more: "“You're hampered by a (salary) cap and by the number of bodies you have available to you, so you can't switch everybody out," Mike Oshea said. "And there's probably some guys playing that you may have liked to rest or they may have wanted to rest." The Lions on the other hand still have plenty to play for here at home. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -157 | 42-43 | Win | 100 | 104 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTAH. The 6-0 Trojans might be overvalued here as they get set for their toughest game so far. They have played two road games, and they were fortunate to win the turnover battle 8-0 in those games. Even with the Oregon State Beavers turning the ball over four times in Corvallis, the Trojans were lucky to come from behind and score a late TD to win that game. The Trojans also got help from the officials, who refused to call obvious holding penalties on the Trojans offensive line. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Utah, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last nine versus the PAC12. The Utes have covered in five straight off a loss, and they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 conference games. All the breaks have been in favor of USC so far, but YOU KNOW that's it's only a matter of time before they experience regression to the mean. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Clemson -165 v. Florida State | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Clemson. The Tigers are 6-0 with a pair of wins over ranked teams. One of those wins came on the road at Wake Forest. That same Demon Deacons team went into Tallahassee and beat the Seminoles by double digits. Clemson beat FSU by a score of 30-20 last year, and the Tigers are 6-0 straight up against FSU dating back to 2014. Clemson has improved, especially on offense since last season. DJ Uiagalelei has thrown for 1,462 yards, 14 TDs and just two INTs. The Seminoles are coming off back to back losses, and Jordan Travis has struggled in those games. Injuries have piled up for Florida State, and that's going to make it tough to hang with the best team in the ACC. The Seminoles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss. I'll take Clemson. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Alabama v. Tennessee +7.5 | 49-52 | Win | 100 | 55 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tennessee. The Crimson Tide just barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Texas A&M last week. It was the second time this season that Alabama was pushed to the brink in a game that went right down to the wire. You know what they say: "If you play with fire, you're gonna get burned". Playing on the road at Tennessee might be their toughest test so far, and we don't yet know if QB Bryce Young will be able to play. He's likely to suit up, but unlikely to be 100 percent healthy. The Vols lost 52-24 at Alabama last year, but they were within a single score in the 4th quarter before Alabama scored the game's final 21 points. Hendon Hooker threw for 282 yards and three TDs on 19-of-28 passing in a losing effort. The Vols are in a great spot here to avenge that loss, and I won't be surprised to see them get the upset. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | NC State v. Syracuse -167 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CUSE. So the Orange are 5-0, but that's not why I like them as a home favorite versus NC State this week. This just sets up as a great spot for the Orange coming off a bye, and the Wolfpack potentially without their QB. If Devin Leary can play, he sure as sh!t isn't going to be 100 percent. The Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Robert Anai has turned this offense into a more efficient unit, and it should be good enough here against a banged up NC State team. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on PHI. The Phillies have all the momentum heading into Game 4, and the pitching matchup favors Philly. Charlie Morton will toe the slab for Atlanta, and he's 0-1 with a 5.47 ERA in five starts versus the Phillies this season. The Phillies hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, who is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA in his last four appearances. The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 Divisional Playoff home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PSU. It's tough to get a read on just how good this Michigan team actually is. I've heard a lot of pundits talk about how good their defense is, but when you start quoting stats you need to realize they have only played one team that ranks better than 98th nationally in total offense. That was Maryland, who they beat at home by a score of 34-27. Penn State comes in off a bye week, and they should be ready to get down and dirty here. Unlike the Wolverines, Penn State has played Power Five teams on the road and passed the test. They beat Auburn by 29 points on the road, while #1 ranked Georgia beat Auburn by 32 at home. This game will answer a lot of questions for both teams, but asking the Wolverines to cover a big spread seems like a bit of a stretch when they still haven't played anybody. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAD. The series is tied heading into Game 3 in San Diego, but this looks like a favorable matchup for the Dodgers. Tony Gonselin will go for LA, and he was undefeated on the road in the regular season. He was also 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in two starts versus the Padres. San Diego will hand the ball to Blake Snell, who had twice as many losses as wins at home this season. He was also 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three starts versus the Dodgers. The Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 Divisional Playoff games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-13-22 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on VGK. The Knights peppered Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick with 51 shots in their season opener, winning by a score of 4-3. They are back home hosting the Chicago Blackhawks tonight, and Chicago is coming off a 5-2 loss in Denver. The Blackhawks are 10-42 in their last 52 versus a team with a winning record. They have lost five of their last six versus the Golden Knights, and they are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season. That means that they may be tanking for a first round draft pick. The Blackhawks are 4-13 in the last 17 meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-12-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | 0-3 | Loss | -174 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on PHI. The Phillies are in the driver's seat after winning Game 1, and they are in great shape with Zack Wheeler on the mound in Game 2. Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) was scorching down the stretch, allowing just one run in his final three regular season starts. He was 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts versus the Braves this year. Atlanta will hand the ball to Kyle Wright, who has pitched well versus Philly, but has an ERA over 5.00 in his last five starts. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven Divisional Playoff road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-12-22 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canadiens | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on TOR. These two teams are trending in opposite directions. The Habs are expected to be tanking for the top pick in the draft, while the Leafs are looking to prove that they are a contender. Toronto was expected to make a deep playoff run with one of the highest paid rosters in the NHL last season, but were bounced in the first round of the playoffs once again. They bring back almost everybody from a team that ranked 2nd in the league in scoring. Auston Matthews scored 60 goals, leading the league in scoring. They have the firepower to take advantage of an inferior opponent in their season opener. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-12-22 | Ajax Amsterdam v. Napoli -175 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Napoli. The home side is on a tear so far this season, sitting top of the table in Series A, and undefeated in Champions League play. Ajax on the other hand has really dropped off since the departure of Ten Hag, and many of their top players. They lost 6-1 at home to Napoli in the first leg of this tie, and we should expect another easy win for the Italians here in Napoli. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAD. Game 1 could be an emotional let down spot for the Padres after upsetting the Mets in the Wild Card series. The pitching matchup certainly favors the home team. Mike Clevinger will go for San Diego, and he's 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in three starts versus the Dodgers this season. He also struggled on the road, going 4-4 with a 5.46 ERA in 14 starts. The Dodgers hand the ball to Julio Urias, who has owned the Padres. He's 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts versus San Diego. The Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 Divisional Playoff home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on LV. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 54 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CIN. When the bookmakers tell you that the Ravens are favored by more than a field goal here, they might as well be saying "don't believe you're lying eyes". Forget about the fact that they rank dead last in the NFL against the pass, and their struggling secondary could be without Marcus Peters this week. Never mind that the Bengals swept the season series last year. Well I ain't buying it. The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and they have covered in six of their last seven road games. Cinci looks like the better team at the moment, and I expect them to win this game OUTRIGHT! GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DAL. The Rams are the defending champs, coming off an ugly loss on the road at San Francisco. The betting public might well view this week's home game against the Cowboys as a good bounce back spot for the champs. It's not really a great matchup for a struggling QB (Stafford) who has two more INTs than he does TDs. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks Top 5 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171 yards per game. Stafford is playing behind an offensive line in shambles, and he's failed to connect with any WR not named Cooper Kupp. The visitors may have their backup QB under center, but he's undefeated in four career starts. I'll take the points here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins v. Jets +6 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 230 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Jets. The Dolphins come into New York as the favorite, asked to cover points despite missing their starting QB and potentially a handful of key position players. After going undefeated in the pre-season, the Jets are off to a rather dubious 2-2 start. Both their wins have come on the road, and both the result of improbable fourth quarter comebacks. Lets not kid ourselves and confuse these Jets with what you can consider a "good" football team. The fact is these kids have some momentum, and plenty of reason to believe that they are never out of it. That can be a dangerous thing when they are a home dog against a banged up road favorite with so many distractions. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Florida State v. NC State -155 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 78 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NC State. So who's in a let down spot here? The Wolfpack are coming off a double digit loss at Clemson, while the Seminoles are coming off a double digit loss at home to Wake Forest. The good news for NC State is at least they are healthy, while FSU has been decimated by injuries. History certainly favors the home team, as the Seminoles are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Raleigh, and they are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings overall. The Wolfpack are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games, and they have covered in seven straight coming off a loss. They are the better team, and I expect them to prove it here versus FSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | BYU +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on BYU. So the 4-1 Cougars ranked #16 in the country are actually an underdog in a neutral site game against unranked 2-2 Notre Dame. So clearly Vegas is telling us that the Irish are the better team? Better where exactly? Drew Pyne looked great against North Carolina last week, but he hasn't proved anything against any top defenses. Jaren Hall comes in with 1,438 yards a dozen TDs and just one INT, and he's faced two ranked opponents. The knock on BYU is that they lost by 20 on the road at Oregon, a week after they beat a Top 10 ranked Baylor team at home in double overtime. The Cougars have been without their top two WR Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney for most of the season, but both should be good to go for Saturday's game. In my mind this is a matchup between one of the most underrated teams of the past decade (BYU) and one of the most overrated teams of the past decade (Notre Dame). The most impressive thing I've seen from Notre Dame this season is losing to Ohio State by just 11. I expect the Cougars to win this game outright, but I certainly don't see them losing by more than a FG. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Utah -170 v. UCLA | 32-42 | Loss | -170 | 113 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Utah. So the 4-1 Utah Utes are road chalk against a 5-0 UCLA Bruins game? Well that's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that UCLA ranks 129th in FBS in strength of schedule. Utah would be sitting at 5-0 if it wasn't for a potential game winning drive ending in an interception in the endzone. Since then Cam Rising has thrown for 12 TDs and just one INT in four straight wins. Utah is a proven commodity, when it comes to talent, experience, and coaching. UCLA is an unproven team with a coach that hasn't been relevant in over a decade. The recipe for success for Utah should be to keep UCLA's offense on the sideline, and their defense on the field. They are certainly equipped to do just that. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee -145 v. LSU | 40-13 | Win | 100 | 83 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tennessee. At first glance it might be tempting to take LSU as a home dog here, but I think this situation sets up nicely for the Vols. Tennessee should benefit from an extra week to rest and prepare for this game, while the Tigers are banged up coming off a lucky win over Auburn. Jayden Daniels threw for just 80 yards on 8-of-20 passing versus Auburn, and he's thrown just one TD pass in his last three starts. That's not going to get it done against the high flying Vols offense and Hendon Hooker. The Vols weakness is their secondary, but LSU doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit that. The Tigers strength is their running game, and the Vols have been pretty damn good at defending the run. The early start also favors the visitors, as Death Valley at night is no picnic. My money is on Tennessee to keep rolling. GL. Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Texas -7 v. Oklahoma | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 83 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Texas. Oklahoma is in tough here in the Red River Rivalry, with their starting QB banged up and a defense that can't stop anybody. Texas should get QB Quinn Ewers back this week, and he will be licking his chops with a chance to face this Sooners defense. The Horned Frogs racked up 668 yards last week in a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma last Saturday. This is a situation where little brother (Texas), finally has a shot to embarrass big brother (Oklahoma). The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games, and they have covered in seven of their last 10 Red River Rivalry games. The Sooners aren't saying much about Dylan Gabriel, but it would be a surprise if he's able to get back on the field this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -127 | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TOR. The Mariners may have peaked too early, and they really limped to the finish line as they clinched a playoff spot for the first time in two decades. Seattle has lost seven of their last 10 road games, and eight of their last nine series openers. Luis Castillo will toe the slab for Seattle, and he lost his only start against the Jays this season. He allowed a pair of runs on seven hits in six innings in that game. The Jays hand the ball to Alek Manoah, who has been dealing of late. He's 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA in his last five starts. The Blue Jays are 16-5 in their last 21 games following an off day. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 43 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Colts. Indy was favored to win the AFC South heading into the season, but after winning just one of their first four games they are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far. So what went wrong? Matt Ryan ranks 4th in the NFL in passing, but he's thrown as many picks (5) as he has TDs. He's also fumbled an NFL worst nine times. Jonathan Taylor has been banged up and hasn't been as productive as he was last season. Indy appears to be due for some positive regression. The Broncos have plenty of issues of their own, and their problems might not be as easy to fix. Injuries to Randy Gregory and Javonte Williams will hurt, and Nathaniel Hackett hasn't inspired much confidence as the head coach. Russell Wilson is battling shoulder soreness, and asking this team to cover a number seems a little optimistic. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-04-22 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Brewers | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Arizona. The Brewers are officially eliminated from Wild Card contention, and they host Arizona in Game 2 at Miller Park tonight. Zack Gallen will toe the slab for Arizona, and he's been one of the hottest pitchers in the majors in the second half of the season. He's 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in his last five starts, and he ranks second in all of MLB with a WHIP of 0.89. The Brewers hand the ball to Eric Lauer, who is 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA in his last three starts. Milwaukee's lineup is batting just .122 over a combined 49 at bats versus Gallen. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-22 | Rams +110 v. 49ers | 9-24 | Loss | -100 | 114 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAR. Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco coaching staff made a mistake naming Trey Lance the starter in the offseason, and while they are fortunate they still have Jimmy G, it might take a while for him to get up to speed. He threw for 211 yards with a TD and an INT on 18-of-29 passing in a loss to the Broncos last Sunday. He threw for 232 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 16-of-30 passing in a 20-17 loss to the Rams in last year's playoffs. San Francisco blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter of that game. It wasn't the first time that Shanahan blew a double digit lead in the playoffs, he's done it twice in the Super Bowl versus the Chiefs and the Patriots. The Rams should have an edge with Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The favorite has failed to cover in seven straight meetings between these two teams, and I think the bookmakers made an error listing San Francisco as the favorite for this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a free play on the Orioles. The Blue Jays have clinched a Wild Card spot, and the Orioles have been eliminated. Game 1 in Baltimore won't have any playoff implications, but it's a chance for some players to finish strong and pad their stats at the end of the year. Perhaps nobody has more to gain than Dean Kremer, who has had a solid season for the Orioles and will make his final start. His last home start was a complete game shutout win over Houston. He signed a one year contract with Baltimore for just 700K, and he could be in for a big pay day in the off-season. Jose Berrios will go for the Blue Jays, and he's always been a Jeckyll and Hyde picher (home/away). He's 7-2 with a 4.25 ERA in Toronto, and 4-5 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. The Orioles should be a favorite in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -170 | 24-17 | Loss | -170 | 165 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on INDY. The Titans held on for a 24-22 win over the Raiders last week, despite fewer total yards and fewer first downs. It wasn't a particularly impressive win against another winless team, and once again Derrick Henry looked like a shell of his former self. Henry is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and he hasn't ran for 100 yards in any of his three starts. As bad as the Colts looked in the first two weeks, they are coming off a win over the Chiefs and sit at 1-1-1 overall this season. This is a revenge spot for Indy after losing both games against the Titans last year. Jonathan Taylor should go off here against a Titans defense that ranks 27th in rushing defense. I'll take the home team in this divisional rivalry game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -150 | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 165 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Dallas. The Cowboys will have Cooper Rush under center again in Week 4, and so far he's getting the job done filling in for Dak Prescott. The Cowboys host Washington, who they owned last season. The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 divisional games, and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six versus a team with a losing record. Carson Wentz was sacked nine times in last week's loss to Philly, and that doesn't bode well against a Dallas defense that has terrorized opposing QBs this season. The Commanders are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight versus the NFC East. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-22 | Vikings -145 v. Saints | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Vikings. The Vikings are 2-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Philadelphia, and they head to London to take on a Saints team that has lost back to back games. The Saints are banged up, with both their starting QB and their top WR for this game. Alvin Kamara hasn't been healthy for a long time, and he's only run for 100 yards in two games this season. It should come as no surprise that he's also listed as questionable. This looks like a tough spot for the Saints facing a mostly healthy Vikings team with all the weapons they have on offense. The Saints are 4-10 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Andy Dalton's last start came in a 31-17 loss to the Vikings, and the threw for 325 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs on 33-of-48 passing in that game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Virginia v. Duke -155 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DUKE. The Blue Devils are coming off their first loss of the season on the road at Kansas. They gained 463 yards of offense and QB Riley Leonard threw for 324 yards and a TD on 24-of-35 passing in the loss. They return home to host Virginia, a team that appears to be in disarray. Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong was held to 138 yards with a TD and an INT on 19-of-38 passing in the loss to Syracuse last week. While it appeared to be a close game, the Orange actually dominated total yards, first downs and time of possession. This is a huge revenge game for Duke, after losing 48-0 at Virginia last year. These programs have trended in the opposite direction since, and the Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Duke. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -165 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 73 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MISST. Offensive futility has been the theme for the Aggies so far this season, and losing their leading WR Senior Ainias Smith for the rest of the season is going to make matters worse. They were quite lucky that Arkansas missed a 42 yard FG in the last two minutes of last week's 22-20 home win. They were on the wrong side of total yards, first downs and time of possession in that game. They are on the road for the first time this week, and it might be a tough ask to hang with the Bulldogs in Starkville. Will Rogers ranks second nationally in passing with 1386 yards (two yards fewer than Michael Penix). Rogers had a monster game at College Station last year, throwing for 408 yards and three TDs on 46-of-59 passing in a 26-22 win. The Aggies played three true road games last season, and lost two of them. They have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3.5 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 127 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Kansas. Stop asking if Kansas is for real! That's not a real question anymore. They beat Duke, West Virginia and Houston, and they scored an average of 46 points in those games. Cyclones QB Hunter Dekkers has thrown more picks than TDs in conference play so far. Playing on the road in Lawrence against a team that puts points on the board in a hurry isn't an ideal spot for this Iowa State offense. Jalon Daniels comes in completing over 70 percent of his passes for 890 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He's lighting it up, and it's no longer sensible to say: "He hasn't played anybody". I like Kansas to extend their winning streak here, but even if they are down by 10 late, this is a team that is fully capable of getting that late TD in garbage time for a back door cover. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -130 | 36-25 | Loss | -130 | 123 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Baylor. This Baylor team has proved itself, last week on the road at Iowa State, and even in a losing effort on the road at BYU. I don't think it's fair to say that Oklahoma State has proven anything so far. All three of their games were at home against inferior opponents. They gave up 44 points to a MAC team in Week 1. They beat Arizona State, but the Sun Devils lost by a similar score to a MAC team the following week. They come into this, their first road game of the season off a blowout win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and they owned the Cowboys in the BIG12 Championship Game last year. Spencer Saunders threw for 257 yards, no TDs and 4 INTs in that game. Blake Shapen three for three TDs in that game, and he's picked up right where he left off. He's completed almost 70 percent of his passes for 773 yards with 7 TDs and just one INT so far this season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Illinois +8 v. Wisconsin | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Illinois. The Badgers are asked to cover a big number here at home when you consider that they are 0-2 versus Power Five schools. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz threw for just 94 yards, 1 TD and an INT on 11-of-20 passing against Ohio State last week. Illinois comes in with a 2-1 record, and a defense that ranks Top 10 nationally allowing just eight points per game. While this will be their toughest test yet, they looked pretty good completely shutting down Virginia and Wyoming. If it wasn't for blowing a lead in the final seconds at Indiana, this team would be 4-0. Brett Bielema's team has the nation's leading rusher Chase Brown, and in a game that could be a war of attrition he could be a real factor. The under is 11-3 in the Fighting Illini last 14 games overall, and another low scoring close game should be expected in Madison. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 65 | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Middle Tennessee is coming of a stunning upset as a 25 point underdog at Miami, winning that game outright by a score of 45-31. This might set them up for a let down on Friday night against UTSA. The Roadrunners are 2-2 with a pair of losses to ranked teams. Both these teams can score in a hurry, and neither team has inspired much confidence on defense. To put it into perspective, the Roadrunners gave up over 300 passing yards to Army (yes Army). The Blue Raiders allowed 44 points and six passing TDs in a loss to a an FCS team in Week 1. The over is 10-1 in the Roadrunners last 11 games overall, and they have gone over in seven straight road games. I see both these teams scoring 30+ here in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-28-22 | Royals v. Tigers -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on the Tigers. The Tigers have won six of seven heading into Game 2 versus Kansas City, and they look good as a small home favorite. Matt Manning will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in three starts against the Royals. Kansas City will hand the ball to to Daniel Lynch, who is 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in his last four starts. The Royals are 17-35 in their last 52 road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-27-22 | A's v. Angels -199 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAA. |
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09-25-22 | Rams -175 v. Cardinals | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 99 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Rams. The Rams are coming off a 31-27 win over Atlanta, failing to cover for the second Sunday in a row. That game was not as close as the final score would indicate. The Rams had a 28-3 lead in the third quarter, and Atlanta scored 17 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Arizona appeared to be dead to rights in Las Vegas last week, but they scored a pair of TDs and converted a pair of two-point conversions in the final minutes to force overtime, and then won the game on a fumble return for TD. Arizona is still a mess, and Sean McVay versus Kliff Kingsbury is a coaching mismatch of epic proportions. History favors the Rams, as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven at Arizona. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Mariners -180 v. Royals | 12-13 | Loss | -180 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on SEA. |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 50.5 | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. It's not Josh Allen who leads the NFL in passing after two weeks, but Tua Tagovailoa. He threw for 469 yards and six TDs in last week's 42-38 win over the Ravens. He's got has hands full this week against the Buffalo Bills who lead the league in scoring. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, as the over is 10-4 in the last 14 head to head meetings. It sure looks like the dynamic duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill has turned the Dolphins into an offensive juggernaut. We should expect both these teams to get their share of points, and this total appears to be a bit on the low side. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Raiders v. Titans | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LV. The Raiders opened up a 20-0 lead in the first half against Arizona last week, and they had a 23-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Somehow they suffered an epic meltdown, allowing Arizona to score a pair of late TDs and a pair of two-point conversions. Then the Raiders fumbled in overtime losing 29-23. While these are the type of losses that are tough to come back from, they face a Tennessee team that has more than it's share of problems. The offensive line was already a mess, and then last week they lost Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold. Derrick Henry looks like a shell of his former self, and Ryan Tannehill continues to regress. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Tennessee, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Eagles -195 v. Washington Commanders | 24-8 | Win | 100 | 127 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on PHI. The Eagles are flying, coming into Washington off back to back wins. They held Kirk Cousins to 221 yards with a TD and three INTs on Monday night. Perhaps that was a preview of what former Eagles QB Carson Wentz can look forward to here on Sunday. Wentz threw for 337 yards and three TDs in a loss to the Lions last week, and he was sacked five times in that game. It won't get any easier against Philly. The Eagles swept the season series last year, and they appear to be primed to run away with the NFC East in 2022. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +7 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 103 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Oregon State. The Beavers are no joke at home, just ask Utah. The Utes lost in Corvallis last year, their only loss in conference play. The Beavers also won at USC last year, and now they are getting points as a home dog in this year's rematch. The Trojans won big as a home favorite versus Fresno State last week, but the Bulldogs played half of that game without QB Jake Haener. The Trojans are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games at Oregon State, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Expect this to be shootout, last team with the ball wins. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-22 | Mariners -165 v. Royals | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on SEA. The Mariners lost Game 1 in Kansas City, and they are just three games up on Baltimore in the Wild Card race. Logan Gilbert will toe the slab for Seattle in Game 2, and he's 8-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 17 starts on the road. He's 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last five starts overall. The Royals hand the ball to Kris Bubic, who is 0-5 with a 7.88 ERA in his last five starts. The Mariners are 13-6 in their last 19 games following a loss, and they are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Kansas City. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 87 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARK. So I had the Aggies last week, and they won and covered at home versus Miami. So Texas A&M is back right? You know what Lee Corso would say... Not so fast my friends. Jimbo Fisher still has plenty of problems with this offense, and last week they got quite lucky against the Hurricanes. Miami had a 392-264 edge in total yards, and a 27-16 edge in first downs. Max Johnson stepped in at QB for the Aggies and threw for 140 yards and a TD on just 10-of-20 passing. That just won't cut it against an Arkansas team that can put points on the board. The Razobacks come in averaging 38 points per game, and it's not like they haven't played anybody. They impressed in wins over Cincinnati and South Carolina. KJ Jefferson has thrown for 770 yards, six TDs and one INT, and he's ran for 169 yards and three TDs. If the Aggies play the way they did against Miami, they will likely lose this game by double digits. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-22 | Duke v. Kansas -7 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 94 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Kansas. Neither Kansas or Duke were supposed to be undefeated at this point, and most will wonder if these teams are for real. Duke has just one real victory they can hang their hat on, and that's a 31-23 win at Northwestern. When the Wildcats lost at home to Southern Illinois the following week, the strength of that win diminished. Kansas on the other hand has won back to back road games against Power Five teams, scoring over 100 points combined in those games. This team ranks in the Top 10 nationally scoring 51 points per game. It seems like a tough ask for Duke to do what West Virginia and Houston failed to do. The Blue Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-22-22 | Guardians -127 v. White Sox | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on CLE. Cleveland has won the first two games in Chicago, and they look good to make it three straight against the Sox tonight. Johnny Cueto will toe the slab for the Sox, and he was lit up for seven runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to Oakland his last time out. That was almost two weeks ago now, so clearly something ain't right with Johnny. The Guardians hand the ball to Shane Beiber, who is 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his last five starts. The Guardians are 14-3 in their last 17 overall, and they are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia -120 v. Virginia Tech | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on West Virginia. The Mountaineers lost back to back games to start the season, but in Week 1 they lost a close game on the road against a ranked Pitt team, and then they were upset in a shootout at home versus Kansas. This Virginia Tech team doesn't have near the offensive prowess that either of those teams possess. The Hokies offense ranks 174th nationally averaging just 23 points per game, and QB Grant Wells has thrown as many picks as he has TDs. What's most concerning about those stats is that they haven't really played anybody. Last week they scored just 27 points against Wofford, failing to cover as a -38 point favorite. The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to cover in six straight non conference games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-21-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. White Sox | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on CLE+1.5. Cleveland had won 10 of 12 heading into this series in Chicago, sitting four games clear of the White Sox in the AL Central. Triston McKenzie will toe the slab for Cleveland in Game 2, and he's 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts versus Chicago this season. Chicago will hand the ball to Lance Lynn, who is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts versus Cleveland. Jose Ramirez is batting .345 with four home runs lifetime versus Lynn. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-22 | Vikings +2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Minny. Turn on the TV and all the analysts will tell you how bad Kirk Cousins is in Monday Night Football games. i honesty think that's a ridiculous thing to believe, that he is significantly worse on Monday than he is on Sunday afternoon. While he's 2-9 straight up in Monday night games, his QBR in those games is actually pretty good. His chemistry with Justin Jefferson and new head coach Kevin O'connell looked pretty good last week. The defense looked equally as impressive, holding Aaron Rodgers to 195 yards and an INT, and sacking him twice. The Eagles don't look bad either, but at the end of the day they beat the lions and still gave up a ton of points. Jalen Hurts was flirting with an intentional grounding penalty all day. My read here is that the Vikes are getting points, and they have the better QB, RB, WRs, coaching is a wash, hard to say who's got the better defense. I'll take the dog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-22 | Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 52.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 160 h 30 m | Show |
This is play on Under. |
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09-18-22 | Aces -110 v. Sun | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LV. The Aces are seeking revenge as they try to close out this WNBA Final on the road at Connecticut. Winning on the road isn't something they have had a problem with, as their road record was as good as their home record during the regular season. The Aces are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they are 5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. They have the superior team and better shooters, and it all should end here tonight in Game 4. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 141 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYJ. The Jets lost 24-9 to the Ravens in Week 1, despite holding an edge in total yards (380-274). The Browns kicked a 58 yard FG in the final seconds to come from behind and win 26-24 in Cleveland. It sure seems like the Browns are asked to cover a lot of points for a team with such a one dimensional offense. The Jets have a history of playing close games against Cleveland, covering the spread in six of the last eight meetings. The Browns have failed to cover in five straight as a favorite, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 126 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Ravens beat the Jets in Week 1 but it come at a cost. Left Tackle JaWuan James tore his Achilles in Week 1, and Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful this week. Despite what appeared to be a one sided win against the Jets, the Ravens were actually outgained 380-274 in total yards. Miami should pose a much bigger threat here than their Week 1 opponent. Tua connected with Tyreek Hill for eight receptions for 94 yards, and Jalen Waddle had 69 yards and a TD on four grabs. Miami's defense held the Patriots to just seven points on 271 total yards of offense. The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, and I don't think they should be favored by three and the hook. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -190 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Aggies. So the Aggies lose last week to App State, and now Jimbo Fisher is on the hot seat. Keep in mind that Miami played App State last year and won by just two points. I definitely think that people are overreacting to the loss to the Mountaineers. A change at QB might help the Aggies turn things around here at home versus Miami. The Hurricanes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight coming off a win. The Aggies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games. I expect a far better showing from the Aggies this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -190 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Arizona. The D'Backs have a winning record at home this season, and with the hottest pitcher in the major leagues on the mound tonight they appear to be a bargain at this price. Zac Gallen (12-2, 2.50 ERA) hadn't allowed a run in six consecutive starts before giving up three runs on four hits while fanning 11 in six innings in a 12-6 win over the Rockies at Coors Field. Back home tonight don't be surprised to see Gallen toss another shutout. The Padres are 4-10 in their last 14 Saturday games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | Texas Tech v. NC State -10 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NC State. Texas Tech is in a tough spot here this week, playing on the road in Raleigh off a double overtime win over Houston. They also have Texas on deck next week, which could prove to be a distraction here against the Wolfpack. While Donovan Smith has played well for the Red Raiders, he's up against a fourth year starter that may well be playing on Sundays in a year or two. Devin Leary has picked up where he left off last season when he threw for 3,433 yards, 35 TDs and just 5 INTs. The Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. The Wolfpack are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | BC v. Calgary OVER 52.5 | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Lions offense has stalled since the injury to Nathan Rourke, but they brought in veteran QB Vernon Adams (former Oregon Duck) a few weeks back. He only saw a few snaps in a loss to Montreal last week. He's now had plenty of time to get familiar with the offense and he is expected to start here in Calgary. We could have a shootout on our hands, as Calgary scored 56 points in a win over Edmonton last week. Both teams are banged up in the secondary and along the defensive line, and that could open things up for both QBs. The last time these teams played it was BC winning by a score of 41-40. Prior to that it was Calgary winning 33-23. I expect another high score here on Saturday. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -165 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 119 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Oregon. The Ducks stock crashed after losing 49-3 to Georgia in Week 1, but I don't think it would be wise to overreact to that result. They were a double digit dog in that game, and Georgia is the #1 ranked team in the country. Last week they got the offense going, scoring 70 points in a home win over Eastern Washington. BYU is coming off an impressive win over Baylor, but this could be a let down spot after a double OT win. The Cougars missed their top two receivers last week, and it's unclear if either Puka Nacua or Gunner Romney will be available on Saturday. This is a game the Ducks are supposed to win, and it's asking a lot for BYU to keep up offensively. The Cougars have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-22 | Mariners -150 v. Angels | 7-8 | Loss | -150 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Seattle. The Mariners are looking good in the Wild Card race, but they need to keep stringing wins together with the Orioles just 4.5 games back. Robbie Ray will toe the slab for Seattle in LA tonight, and he's 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last five starts. The Angels hand the ball to Michael Lorenzen who has been roughed up by Seattle twice already. He's 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in two starts versus the Mariners. The Mariners are 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan UNDER 50.5 | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. The total for this game stands out to me, and I am convinced that this number is inflated because both these teams gave up 50+ points last week. The total was listed well below 50 in each of the last six head to head meetings between these teams. The Riders are averaging just 23 points per game this season, while Edmonton has averaged just over 20 points per game. Prior to last week, the Riders defense had been solid allowing just over 24 points per game. The Elks do rank dead last in the CFL in scoring defense, but they face a Riders offense that has been hit hard by injuries. These teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five in Regina. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-22 | Florida State -140 v. Louisville | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on FSU. So Louisville bounced back with a solid win over UCF after getting blown out by Syracuse in their season opener. Or did they? Well that win over Central Florida might say more about the Knights than it does about the Cardinals. Malik Cunningham threw for only 201 yards on less than 50% passing, without a TD. Louisville was lucky to be in the game at halftime, and they were able to come back in the second half. Mike Norvell has this Florida State team firing on all cylinders, and at this point it looks like Jordan Travis is a superior quarterback. The Cardinals are 12-28-1 ATS in their last 41 versus a team with a winning record. The Seminoles have had a bye week to rest and prepare for this game, and I like FSU to get the win on the road in this spot. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-15-22 | Aces +100 v. Sun | 76-105 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LV. The Connecticut Sun are on the ropes, looking to avoid the sweep here in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals. While I bet on them and won in a closely contested Game 1, they lost by 15 in Game 2. The Sun came into the series as the underdog, and now with defeat seeming inevitable, we might not get their best effort in Game 3. Sweeps are not uncommon in the WNBA Finals, as seven of the last 14 Finals have ended in a sweep. The Aces are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they have won four of the last five meetings outright. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chiefs were impressive in a win at Arizona in Week 1, but that game might say more about the Cardinals than it does about the Chiefs. They should face a much tougher test on Thursday night in a home game against the Chargers. Home field hasn't proved to be much of an advantage in recent meetings between these teams. The home team has lost seven of the last eight meetings straight up. Going back even further, the road team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings. The Chargers are 36-16-4 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog. LA dominated defensively in their win over the Raiders in Week 1. They sacked Derek Carr five times and forced him to throw three INTs. I like LA to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Thursday night. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-15-22 | Royals v. Twins -161 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on MIN. |
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09-14-22 | Orioles -144 v. Nationals | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on BAL. I don't think Baltimore can make the playoffs, but don't tell them that. They are five games out of a Wild Card spot, and four of their next seven games come against bottom feeders Washington and Detroit. In between they have a three game series versus Toronto, and that gives them a chance to catch up in a hurry. Tyler Wells (7-6, 3.91 ERA) has been solid enough, and he faces a National team that has the talent of a Triple A roster. The Nats hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, who has been torched all year, and he already lost to the Orioles once this year. The Orioles are 13-4 in their last 17 games versus a left-handed starter. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-13-22 | Barcelona FC v. Bayern Munich -120 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Bayern. Robert Lewandowski left Bayern in the off-season to join Barcelona, and returns to face his former club in a Champions League match in Munich on Tuesday. While he's off and running with his new club, his replacements at Bayern are also making their mark. Jamal Musiala leads the team in scoring with four goals in five matches, while Sadio Mane has scored three times in six matches. These teams have played three times over the last seven years, Bayern has won all three of those matches by a combined score of 14-2. As good as Barcelona looks, this is a tough spot and they will do well just to keep the game close. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Reds | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on PIT. This is not the highest profile matchup in the majors today, but I like this underdog in a battle between two of the worst teams in baseball. Bryse Wilson will toe the slab for the Bucs, and he hasn't been great in most spots. One spot where he has been good is against the Reds (2.63 ERA in two starts) and in Cincinnati, allowing just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings at Great American Ballpark earlier in the year. The Reds hand the ball to Mike Minor, and there isn't much positive to say about him. He's 0-7 with a 6.11 ERA at home, and 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA versus Pittsburgh. The Reds are 3-8 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys UNDER 50.5 | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play Under. The teams played a high scoring game in Week 1 last year, but I am not expecting a repeat performance. Tom Brady is 45 years old and didn't practice for most of the pre-season. The Bucs lost their starting center, but they are still in far better shape than the Cowboys who will really miss Tyron Smith. Dak Prescott won't have Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott is trending in the wrong direction. The under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in four straight home games versus Tampa Bay. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Raiders v. Chargers -172 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 282 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. I expect the Raiders to be competitive in the AFC West this season, with Davante Adams teaming up with Derek Carr their offense might be great. This is just a terrible matchup for them in Week 1 on the road at LA. The mediocre Raiders offensive line versus the fearsome pass rush of the Chargers is a recipe for disaster for Derek Carr. Historically LA starts off hot, the Chargers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. The Raiders lost 28-14 at LA last season, and a similar score should be expected here in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Chiefs -175 v. Cardinals | 44-21 | Win | 100 | 282 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on KC. While I am not all that high on Kansas City this year, I am far less bullish on Arizona. Their offensive line is in shambles, and Kyler Murray turned into a bit of a drama queen in the off-season. They are going to miss DeAndre Hopkins, and I don't know how they can keep up to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six overall. The coaching matchup with Andy Reid vs Kliff Kingsbury is another mismatch in favor of the visitors. I'll take KC to get the W. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +110 | 7-23 | Win | 110 | 56 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIN. The Packers come into Minnesota as a road favorite, and given the receiving corps Aaron Rodgers has to work with, I think this line is way off. Remember how Aaron Rodgers started off last season, could it be Deja Vu all over again? Kirk Cousins doesn't get any respect, and it seems like people forget that the Vikes have studs at WR, and one of the better running backs in the league. The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two rivals. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | White Sox -153 v. A's | 3-10 | Loss | -153 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CWS. The White Sox are just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, and they have a favorable matchup here in Oakland on Sunday. Johnny Cueto will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's 3-2 with a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts. He only allowed more than one run in one of those games. The A's hand the ball to Cole Irvin, who has allowed 5+ runs in three of his last four appearances. The White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Sun +6.5 v. Aces | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Sun. The Suns have been a very good road team during the regular season and the playoffs. They are 3-1 straight up on the road in these Playoffs, losing 85-77 at Chicago in the one loss. They won 97-90 at Las Vegas this season, and these teams have a history of playing close games. The Aces are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Sun are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions OVER 48 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 279 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. There is some optimism that the Lions will be better this year, particularly on offense. There is still plenty of reason to be skeptical of their defense. The Eagles come in with plenty of weapons, and they are projected to have the best offensive line in football. They should get their points. The Eagles scored 44 points at Detroit last year, and these two teams have gone over in eight straight head to head meetings. The over is 16-7 in Lions last 23 home games, and they have gone over in 16 of their last 21 season openers. You know they say that History Repeats Itself! GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Kevin Holland v. Khamzat Chimaev OVER 1.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. Lets keep this simple... Chimaev was priced at -1100 versus Nate Diaz, but he missed weight by a whopping 7.5 pounds. He now has to fight Kevin Holland, who weighs in as a 179 lbs middleweight. This comes at the last minute, and the odds have dropped to Chimaev -550 versus Holland. While he has an 11-0 record with six knockouts, many of those fights came against lesser competition. Holland has seven wins and a draw in his last 10 fights, and both losses during that span came by way of decision. He went the distance versus Brunson and Vettori. Chimaev went the distance in a close fight versus Gilbert Burns, so I think it's asking a lot for him to finish Holland early in this fight. GL, Jesse |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -160 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 116 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU. The Cougars return almost all the talent they had last year when they won 10 games, including a pair of wins over ranked teams. They only lost twice during the regular season, and one of those losses came by a score of 38-24 at Baylor. That sets up a revenge match here in Provo, and the Bears lost plenty of their talent off last year's roster. The Cougars are tough at home, winning 16 of their last 17 home games straight up. I think Baylor is due to take a major step back this season after overachieving in 2021. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Sporting KC v. Houston Dynamo OVER 2.75 | 0-0 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. I said this about Kansas City a few weeks ago: "Kansas City sits dead last in the MLS standings, but after picking up William Agada and Erick Thommy in the mid season transfer market, they are not the same squad. They have scored 11 goals in their last three matches, winning two of those games" They since won at home versus San Jose, and then earned a 2-2 draw on the road at LAFC. It would appear that the betting markets haven't properly accounted for the new additions to this team. Both these teams have gone over in four of their last five matches, and three of the last four head to head meetings went over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Game 1 of this series was a slugfest, and the scheduled pitchers for Game 2 would suggest that another high score is in order. Jose Urena will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and he hasn't missed many bats of late. He's 2-3 with an 8.88 ERA in his last five starts. The D'Backs hand the ball to Mad Bum, who is 0-3 with an 8.77 ERA in his last five starts. The over is 9-3 in the Diamondbacks last 12 games versus a right-handed starter. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Iowa State v. Iowa -165 | 10-7 | Loss | -165 | 60 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Iowa. The Hawkeyes are no stranger to winning ugly, but after a 7-3 win over South Dakota State in their season opener, people appear to be overreacting. Now struggling against an FCS team isn't a good look, but what kind of team is South Dakota State. They were the highest scoring team in the MVFC last season, averaging more points per game than North Dakota State (a team that people are likely familiar with). They won 11 games overall, beginning with a 42-23 win over Colorado State. They also won a home game against North Dakota State. The Hawkeyes beat Iowa State by double digits last year. That Cyclones team had Brock Purdy and Breece Hall. The Hawkeyes are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games, and they are 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Houston +3.5 v. Texas Tech | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 60 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Cougars. Houston was lucky to come from behind and win in overtime at UTSA in Week 1, but their stock has dropped heading into Week 2. They lost 38-21 at home to Texas Tech in Week 1 last year, but then went on to win 11 straight games. This sets them up for a revenge spot here in Lubbock. Clayton Tune threw four INTs in last year's loss to the Red Raiders, and then he only threw six INTs in his next 12 games. I expect Tune to be a lot better this time around, and this Red Raiders defense ranked dead last in the BIG12 against the pass last season. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss, and the Red Raiders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee -5 v. Pittsburgh | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tennessee. The Vols were pretty good last year, and they bring back a lot of talent in 2022. Most notably is their QB Hendon Hooker. The one game that they probably would like back is a home loss to Pitt. Hooker was not sharp, and Kenny Pickett lit up the Vols defense. No more Pickett, and no more Jordan Addison for Pitt. A revenge game for the Vols, and based on what we saw in the Backyard Brawl I don't see Pitt slowing down the Tennessee offense. The Vols scored a combined 107 points in road victories at Kentucky and Missouri last year. It's going to be tough for Slovis to match serves with Hooker. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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09-10-22 | UTSA -135 v. Army | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTSA. I bet against the Roadrunners in Week 1, and they almost burned me. I was impressed with the way they played against the Houston Cougars. From a situational standpoint, this looks like a classic let down spot for the Roadrunner, but as Lee Corso would say ... "Not so fast my friend". We shouldn't overthink this. UTSA is by far the more talented team here, and they showed in Week 1 that their offense is still a force to be reckoned with. The Army Black Knights had no answers for Coastal Carolina last week, allowing 38 points on 437 total yards. They should have their hands full here against the Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, and they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-22 | Braves v. Mariners +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on SEA. The Mariners are a home dog, despite the fact that they are 19-6 overall in their last 25 games. They are 22-3 ATS during that span. Robbie Ray will toe the slab for Seattle, and the reigning Cy Young winner is on top form. He's 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA in his last five starts. The Braves hand the ball to Charlie Morton, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA in a dozen road starts. The Braves are 1-6 in the last seven meetings versus Seattle. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-22 | BC -170 v. Montreal | 10-31 | Loss | -170 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the BC Lions. The Lions lead the CFL in scoring despite playing only 10 games (most teams have played 12). They lost their first game since the injury to Nathan Rourke (leads the CFL in passing), but they have had plenty of time to regroup coming off a bye week. They picked up former Oregon Ducks QB Vernon Adams Jr. in a trade with Montreal, and he could face his former team here on Friday night. The Lions have owned this Als team, winning nine of the last 10 meetings. BC is still undefeated in road games this season. The Alouettes are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. This is a great spot to back BC. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 1078 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Buffalo. The Rams won a dozen games, finishing first in the NFC West and winning the Super Bowl last season. They will try to be the first back-to-back champions since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005. Statistically, it’s more likely that the team that won the Super Bowl the previous season misses the playoffs than it is for them to repeat as champions. Seven teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls, while nine teams since 1990 have won the Super Bowl and gone on to miss the playoffs. While the Rams look to avoid a Super Bowl Hangover, the Bills are looking to bounce back after being ousted by the Chiefs in last year's playoffs. The Bills are the only team heading into 2022 with a top 5 ranked offense and defense. They used two of their top three draft picks on defensive players, and the addition of veteran Von Miller will help the pass rush. Buffalo ranked 1st in the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 17 points per game last season. The Bills also ranked 1st in passing defense allowing just 163 passing yards per game. Josh Allen threw for 4,407 yards and 36 TDs last season, and he ran for another six scores on 122 carries for 763 yards. He delivered in the biggest game of his life (against KC), and he comes into the 2022 season as the MVP favorite (+700). GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-08-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -128 | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on PHI. So the Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine home games, while the Marlins have lost nine straight overall. Philly is just a small favorite in Game 3 at home this afternoon, and I think too much is being made of the starting pitching matchup. As well as Sandy Alcantara has pitched this season, the Marlins are just 4-6 in his last 10 starts. There are only two teams that he has a losing record against this season, and Philly is one of them. Kyle Gibson goes for Philly, and he's been solid. He's 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 15 home starts. The Marlins are 1-5 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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09-07-22 | Brewers v. Rockies +1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Colorado. The Rockies home record is significantly better than the Brewers road record. The Rockies starting pitcher has dominated the Brewers, while Milwaukee's starter was rocked by Colorado earlier this season. Kyle Freeland tossed seven scoreless innings, fanning seven in a win over the Brewers. Eric Lauer allowed four runs on six hits and four walks in four innings in a loss to Colorado. The Brewers are 4-11 in their last 15 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-06-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -153 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on TB. The Rays are one of the hottest teams in the majors, coming into Game 2 of this home series versus Boston as winners of six of seven. Drew Rasmussen will toe the slab for Tampa, and he's lights out at home. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 11 home starts. The Red Sox hand the ball to Rich Hill, who has been solid overall. It is getting late in the season though and there is a lot of mileage on that 42 year old arm. The Red Sox have lost six straight at The Trop. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Clemson. While it was a down year for the Tigers in 2021, they still won 10 games and ended the year on a six game winning streak. They struggled to blow out opponents last season, that said they won their final three games by an average margin of 29 points. They opened as a -22 favorite here against Georgia Tech, and that line has been bet up. Still below the key number of 24 I see some value here with the Tigers. Georgia Tech is in trouble this year, losing a ton of talent in the transfer portal. Lets not kid ourselves about a 14-8 win for Clemson last year, the average margin of victory in the previous three meetings was a whopping 44 points. They are asked to cover just half that here. We already saw #1 ranked Alabama and #3 ranked Georgia win by 40+ in their respective openers. Clemson wants to be in that class. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-05-22 | Twins v. Yankees -165 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYY. How bad have the Yankees been since the All Star break? They have been in en epic slump, but they still hold a five game lead in the AL East. The Twins on the other hand have lost seven of their last eight road games, and they are tied with Cleveland at the top of the AL Central. The Twins are 10-41 in the last 51 meetings in New York, and they have lost 11 of their last 12 road games versus teams with a winning record. Archer has struggled, while Taillon has been perhaps the most consistent start on the Yankees staff. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton | 28-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Hamilton. While the Ticats turn to a rookie QB, this is a good spot for the home team. A revenge game in the Labor Day Classic, versus their biggest rival. The Argos have lost four of their last five at Hamilton, and it's widely considered the toughest place to play in the CFL. This team is particularly tough to beat at this time of year, the Tiger-Cats are 7-0-2 ATS in their last nine games in September. Hamilton owns the CFL's top ranked run defense, and they are good at getting to the QB with 25 sacks in 11 games so far in 2022. The Argonauts are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Hamilton. History favors the home team. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-04-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ARZ. The D'Backs are 7-2 in their last nine overall, and they look good to bounce back in Game 4 of this home series versus Milwaukee. Zach Gallen will toe the slab for Arizona, and he's been dominant in recent starts. He's 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last five starts. The Brewers hand the ball to Jason Alexander, who has not recorded a decision in his last five appearances. The Brewers are 1-5 in his last six starts. The Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-04-22 | Mariners v. Guardians +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play CLE. The Mariners are going for a sweep in Cleveland, but I like the home dog here. At first glance this looks like a pitcher's duel. George Kirby is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his last five starts. Dig a little deeper though and you see those games came against the Tigers, Nationals, Rangers and home and away set versus the Angels. Cal Quantrill on the other hand is 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA in his last five starts, which came against the likes of Toronto, Houston, Baltimore and San Diego. The Guardians are 7-2 in their last nine during game 3 of a series. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-04-22 | A's v. Orioles -168 | 5-0 | Loss | -168 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BAL. The Orioles have outscored the A's 13-3 in the first two games of this series, and there's no reason to expect Oakland to avoid a sweep. Spenser Watkins will toe the slab for the Orioles in Game 3, and he's already beat Oakland once this season. He allowed a run on two hits in five innings in that game. Oakland will hand the ball to Adrian Martinez, who is 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA in three road starts. The Orioles are 22-7 in their last 29 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-03-22 | Austin v. Nashville SC OVER 2.75 | 0-3 | Win | 50 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. Austin F.C. is the second highest scoring team in MLS behind LAFC. After upsetting LAFC they suffered a let down in their next game losing 2-1 at home to Portland. They look to get back on track here in Nashville, and I like both teams to score in a high scoring match here. Nashville has one of the worst home records in MLS, despite scoring 25 goals in 15 matches. Austin F.C. has the second best away record in MLS, scoring 23 goals in 14 matches. The over is a combined 10-0 in these teams last 10 matches combined. GL, Jesse Schule |