Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 55 | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon as Fresno State battles Boise State for the Mountain West Conference championship. Fresno State has been building toward this game, seemingly improving defensively with each passing week, going from 30 points allowed against UNLV on November 11th to just 14 and 0 over the next two games against Nevada and Wyoming, respectively. Boise State did put up 42 points in last week's rout of Utah State but it isn't the offensive juggernaut it once was. You can be sure the Broncos will exercise some caution offensively here as Fresno State has been very opportunistic on defense, collecting five turnovers in the last two games combined and 11 over its last five contests. Noting that Boise State has completed more than 20 passes only twice in 12 games this season, topping out at 34 pass attempts over its last 11 games, it's unlikely we'll see the Broncos slinging it all over the field here. It's a different story for the Jake Haener-led Fresno State offense as it is pass-happy to say the least. With that being said, Boise State should match up well in that regard, noting that it has allowed 20+ pass completions and 300+ passing yards only twice this season, including last week against Utah State in a game where the Aggies could muster 'only' 23 points. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 60 points in a Boise State blowout earlier this season. I do think the Bulldogs have improved defensively since then and a more tightly-contested affair should lend itself to a lower-scoring contest as well this time around. Considering the closing total for that first matchup was 45.5, the case can certainly be made that we're working with an inflated number here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Campbell v. East Carolina OVER 133.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Campbell and East Carolina at 7 pm et on Friday. East Carolina checks into this game off back-to-back losses, held under 70 points in both contests after opening the season by scoring 75+ points in six straight games. Pirates opponents have been 'filling it up' so far this season, with six of eight foes having made good on 26 or more field goals, six of eight opponents have also scored more than 70 points. We will give the Pirates due respect in this bounce-back spot, however, confident that they can at least keep up with the Campbell Tigers in the role of short home favorite. Campbell successfully rebounded from its worst offensive showing of the season by exploding for 87 points last time out against Stetson. While Stetson's break-neck pace had a lot to do with that high-scoring result, it's not as if East Carolina will be looking to slow it down either. The problem is, the Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down the same number of field goals per game (24) as ECU despite six fewer attempts while making good on just one less three-pointer per contest, also on eight fewer attempts. Both of these teams get to the free throw line with consistency as Campbell averages 22 FT attempts per contest and ECU checks in averaging 23. The last time these two squads met in 2019 they combined to score 146 points. While the personnel has obviously changed, I'm anticipating a similar result here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Uruguay v. Ghana OVER 2.25 | 2-0 | Loss | -57.5 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ghana and Uruguay at 10 am et on Friday. Ghana's two games so far in this tournament have been thrillers with each contest totalling five goals. I'll admit that I expected Ghana to be far more organized and stout defensively in this tournament but that simply hasn't been the case. Here, with Uruguay needing to push to secure advancement in this tournament (currently sitting in last place, two points behind second-place Ghana, I'm confident we'll see another relatively high-scoring affair. With Ghana having scored first in six of its last eight contests across all competitions, there's reason to believe the Uruguayans will be forced to go on the offensive early. Both sides have been vulnerable defensively in the World Cup so far, even if Uruguay has only yielded two goals through two contests. The two back lines rate out near the bottom of any defensive units in this tournament according to the numbers I use. The same goes for the keepers. Expect some fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Bills Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit last Thursday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they stay on the road to face the division-rival Patriots in Foxborough. While Buffalo has still put up 30, 31 and 28 points over its last three contests, it hasn't looked totally in-sync. Whether that has to do with Josh Allen's injury is up for debate. With the Patriots having had an extra couple of days to prepare for this tall task, I do think we'll see their defense, which is still underrated at this late stage of the season in my opinion, keep Allen and Co. in check, relatively-speaking at least. I'm willing to chalk up last week's allowance of 33 points in Minnesota as an aberration as the Pats suffered a 'shock to the system' of sorts after facing the Jets (twice) and Colts over a three-week span heading in. I think we see their defense bounce back here. On the flip side, the Pats have gone fairly conservative offensively ever since Mac Jones orchestrated a turnover-fest against the Bears in a Monday nighter in late October. Since then, the Pats have turned the football over just twice in four games, without a single TO in their last two. While the Bills are known for their offense, they can play elite defense as well and while losing Von Miller to an injury hurts, the rest of the defense is as healthy as it's been in quite some time off the extended week. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Bills road games this season. We've also seen the 'under' go 6-1 with Buffalo coming off consecutive games totalling 50 or more points over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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12-01-22 | Germany v. Costa Rica OVER 3.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Costa Rica and Germany at 2 pm et on Thursday. I think we’re only going to realistically need one goal from Costa Rica to get ‘over’ this total of 3.5 on Thursday and considering Germany has conceded at least a goal in nine of its last 10 contests, I believe there’s a good chance of that happening here. Of course the Germans need to push at every opportunity as they sit in last-place in the group with plenty of work to do to advance. We know Costa Rica is vulnerable defensively as we saw it drop a 7-0 decision against Spain to open its tournament. We actually won with Costa Rica in its stunner against Japan but I feel there’s high-potential for it to concede three or more goals here, with its back-line continuing its tournament struggle. Take the over (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 227.5 | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams playing at a reasonably slow pace lately and neither shooting particularly well, I believe this total will prove too high on Wednesday. Atlanta has gotten off just 82, 88 and 74 field goal attempts over its last three contests, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in all three. The good news is, the Hawks have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities as well, holding nine of their last 10 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's a similar story for Orlando. It has gotten off 80 or fewer FG attempts in three straight games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time the Magic knocked down 40 or more field goals. Meanwhile, they've held three straight opponents to 82 or fewer FG attempts, including the red hot Nets in a 109-102 loss on Monday. Brooklyn actually shot the lights out in that contest (44 made field goals) yet still scored 'only' 109 points in a game that stayed comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers are reeling off three straight losses and we've successfully faded them in their last two contests as they blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 loss to the Oilers and a 2-0 first period lead in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Devils, with both games coming at home. Here, they'll obviously be looking to tighten things up and I do think they benefit from stepping down in class after facing the first-place Devils on Monday to take on the second-last (in the Eastern Conference) Senators on Wednesday. Ottawa does check in off consecutive wins out west but now faces the tough 'first game back off a long road trip' situation, noting that New York has been much tougher defensively on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Rangers coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and better still, the 'under' is 13-2 when that home defeat came by two goals or more, as is the case here. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 4.8 goals. All three of last season's matchups between these two teams totalled six goals or less with the two games played here in Ottawa reaching only five and three total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-22 | Mexico v. Saudi Arabia OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Saudi Arabia and Mexico at 2 pm et on Wednesday. This has the potential to be the highest-scoring match on Wednesday's World Cup slate. Both lineups rate highly up front but poorly at the back-end (in this tournament to date). Al-Shehri ranks among the most dangerous strikers in World Cup play according to my ratings. The same goes for Hirving Lozano up front for Mexico. Both back-lines can be had. Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa - one of the oldest players in the entire tournament - fared well in a 0-0 draw with Poland in the opener but struggled mightily against a tougher opponent in Argentina last time out. Saudi Arabia is capable of putting Ochoa under duress for extended stretches in this one and I'm confident it can deliver on at least one occasion. Meanwhile, the Mexicans need more than just a strong showing to advance - they need a fistful of goals and there is a path to that outcome with no one in the final-third of the field for Saudi Arabia capable of truly leaving their mark on this contest. Again, both sides are well-positioned to 'go for it' in this group stage finale and I'm confident we'll see at least three goals. Take the over (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 214 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Portland at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I understand the logic behind this total shifting downward but that doesn't mean I agree with it. The Clippers haven't been the same dominant force defensively this season, and certainly not of late as two of their last three opponents have gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts with three of their last four foes knocking down 40+ field goals. In fact, 12 of Los Angeles' last 14 opponents have scored 100+ points. The Blazers have been held to 97 points or less in two of their last three games but should rebound at home, where they're averaging north of 114 points per game on 40 made field goals per contest. Defensively, Portland has allowed eight consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In general, the Blazers play at a faster pace here at the Moda Center, averaging 85 FG attempts per game compared to their season average of 83 while yielding 88 FG attempts per contest to opponents compared to their season average of 86. Take the over (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Senegal v. Ecuador UNDER 2.25 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Senegal and Ecuador at 10 am et on Tuesday. |
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11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | 40-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results with neither of those contests breaking 40 points. That might lead some to believe that this total is too high, currently sitting in the high-40's. I believe it will prove far too low as this game has true shootout potential. The Raiders offense didn't match up particularly well against the Broncos stout defense last week but WR Davante Adams still went off, scoring the game-winning touchdown in walk-off fashion. Adams figures to stuff the boxscore again this week as the Seahawks don't have a single defender capable of containing the all-world receiver. That's not to mention the fact that Seattle has been vulnerable against the run and will be looking to stop an underrated Raiders ground attack led by workhorse RB Josh Jacobs. On the flip side, there's little reason to expect the Raiders will contain a Seahawks offense that should snap back like a rubber band after struggling against the Bucs tough defense in Munich prior to the bye week. The extra week off should have given WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett extra time to heal up their nagging injuries and I'm confident that duo will go off, much like Adams, in this contest. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker is rightfully the focal point of the Seahawks offense at this point and he's in line for a monster day as well with the Raiders ranking as a bottom-five run stopping unit in the league. Take the over (9*). |
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11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Croatia at 11 am et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring contest between two squads that appear to have 'no love lost' heading in. Both sides could certainly use the three points from this match with Canada off a 1-0 loss to Belgium and Croatia following up on an uninspiring draw with Morocco in their respective tournament openers. I'm confident the Croatians can put the Canadians on their back foot early on, noting that they've scored first in five of their last six matches. Canada couldn't break through against Belgium but certainly showed plenty of promise, taking the play to the much higher ranked squad in Wednesday's shutout loss. I'm confident we'll see the Canadians finally break through with their first World Cup goal in this match - I'm just not convinced it will be enough to come away with point(s), speaking to the potential of a 2-1 result. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-22 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 212 | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is the second instalment of a two-game set between these two teams in Miami after the Heat prevailed by a 113-105 score on Wednesday. That 'over' result has led to an adjustment to the total here, and I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. Washington continues to defend well, holding three straight and 11 of its 18 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals this season. It has also been efficient offensively for the most part, although it needed to shoot better than 47% from the field to get to 42 made field goals and only 105 points in this same matchup two nights ago. The Wiz are averaging only 87 field goal attempts per game on the road this season while the Heat have held the opposition to 86 FG attempts per contest here at home. Miami has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games including 35 and 39 in two games against Washington (the first of which was aided by overtime). It matched a season-high with 93 FG attempts in regulation time last time out yet still scored 'only' 113 points on 39 made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the set-up for this play as the first meeting between these two teams was lower-scoring than expected and the Grizzlies have actually seen the 'under' cash in three of their last five games overall, despite playing at a reasonably fast pace. Memphis has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games entering Friday's contest. It has also made good on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games heading in, but comes off a loss to the Kings last time out. New Orleans has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing three of its last four opponents to knock down 41+ field goals. However, its offense has more than made up for it, making good on 42+ field goals in six straight contests and 49 and 47 over its last two games. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Last Thanksgiving, we saw the Cowboys fall in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Raiders (in overtime) but I expect a much different story to unfold in this year's instalment as Dallas draws a divisional foe in the New York Giants. Of course, the Giants allowed a season-high 31 points in last Sunday's home loss against the Lions. While they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, I do expect them to at the very least do a better job of defending the Cowboys than the Vikings did last Sunday (we won with Dallas and the 'under' in that game). The presence of DT Leonard Williams has certainly made a difference for New York's run defense, noting that it has held opponents to 4.3 yards per rush over the last three games (5.3 ypr allowed this season). Don't count on the Giants abandoning the run the way the Vikings did against Dallas last Sunday (that was largely game-script related as they fell behind big early). While RB Saquon Barkley hasn't been his usual dominant self in recent weeks, the G-Men will still want to get all they can out of him in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten this contest as double-digit underdogs. New York, unlike Minnesota, also has a mobile quarterback that can help in minimizing the effectiveness of Dallas' ferocious pass rush. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Giants have come off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 31.5 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest posted total on this week's NFL board and I believe it will prove too high at Ford Field on Thursday afternoon. The Bills offense 'should' have its way with a weak Lions defense in this one but I can't help but feel their ceiling is somewhat capped by QB Josh Allen's nagging elbow injury. He's coming off a poor performance against a very beatable Browns defense last Sunday and now plays on a short week, knowing he'll need to be somewhat cautious against an opportunistic Lions defense that has forced seven turnovers in the last three games. With injury concerns on their offensive line, I'm not expecting much from the Lions offense here. Speaking of capped ceilings, that's precisely what we've seen from Detroit's offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm. Note that while the Lions have scored 31 points in consecutive games, they've completed just 14, 19 and 17 passes for 137, 228 and 165 passing yards over their last three contests. I can't help but feel the optimal gameplan here involves making running backs Jamaal Williams and DeAndre Swift the focal point on Thursday afternoon, in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten proceedings as a two-score underdog. Detroit's recent scoring spike has also had something to do with the fact that it has turned the football over just once over its last four games. It will need to be cautious here, however, noting that Buffalo has forced at least one turnover in seven straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | South Korea v. Uruguay UNDER 2.25 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Korea and Uruguay at 8 am et on Thursday. This is another play where you'll want to look for an alternate total and pay the juice to get it at 2.5 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.0 being offered at some books. In a group where all four teams are capable of rising up and advancing, I'm expecting a very cagey affair between South Korea and Uruguay on Thursday. I'm just not sure where the goals are going to come from in this matchup. Even if one team is able to gain the upper hand early, there's no guarantee the other side will be able to find the equalizer. While Uruguay is fielding an aging roster led by 35-year old Luis Suarez up front, Korea was struck a blow with Son suffering an eye injury in the lead-up to this tournament - an injury that is expected to require surgery. Uruguay is always a tough side to break down defensively, noting that it enters this tourney having yielded just one goal across its last seven matches in all competitions. Korea has been a little more forgiving in that regard but again, I'm unsure whether Uruguay has the squad to take advantage. Take the under (8*). |
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11-24-22 | Cameroon v. Switzerland OVER 2 | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cameroon and Switzerland at 5 am et on Thursday. Do your line shopping for this play as I recommend paying the tariff to go 'over' a 2.0 rather than the standard 2.25 or even 2.5 being offered at some books. My reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. We've seen a string of low-scoring affairs in this tournament, including a number of dreaded 0-0 results. I do think we're going to see totals continue to shade lower - too low in this particular matchup in my opinion. Note that both squads get stronger as you move up the field. By that I mean both have their issues defensively with a number of defenders, not to mention both goalkeepers, entering this tournament in relatively poor form. Up front, it's a much different story. I'm confident we'll see Switzerland get off to a fast start here on the heels of a very strong showing at the Euros in Summer 2021. I also think Cameroon ultimately finds the back of the net once to help this total along. Take the over (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Canada v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Belgium at 2 pm et on Wednesday. While few expect Canada to make much noise in its first World Cup appearance in what seems like an eternity, there are those that feel Belgium may be a little less explosive than we've been accustomed to seeing entering Wednesday's opener. The absence of striker Romelu Lukaku certainly casts a heavy shadow over the Belgian side, but I'm confident we'll still see it thrive offensively against a Canadian side that isn't without its warts defensively. Milan Borjan checks in as one of the weakest goalkeepers in the entire tournament according to my own ratings. Miller and Johnston are wildcards at the back-end as they've performed well at the club level but it's a big jump from MLS to the World Cup stage and they'll have a trial by fire against one of the best squads in the World on Wednesday. This is without a doubt one of the weakest defenses across the board in the entire tournament. The question becomes whether the Canadians can break through offensively to help this total along and I do think they're catching the Belgians at the right time in that regard. Surprisingly, world class keeper Thibaut Courtois enters in less than top form after a string of poor performances, including against Egypt in a friendly warm-up match. Toby Alderweireld has also struggled in recent club play with Royal Antwerp - his responsibility is defending the middle of the field on the back line, an area I'm confident Canada can exploit with table-setter Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David looking to write a new chapter in Canadian soccer history. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-22 | Japan v. Germany OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Japan and Germany at 8 am et on Wednesday. Off an unappealing 0-0 draw against Oman in a World Cup warmup match earlier this month, a lot of bettors might be hesitant to back the 'over' in Germany's tournament opener against a cagey Japan squad on Wednesday. I'm not the least bit concerned about the Germans finding the back of the net in this particular contest. Regardless what we've seen from Japan in matches leading up to this tournament (it has yielded just two goals in its last six matches across all competitions), I have it rated as the weakest defensive squad of the 'big three' in Group E. The good news is, Japan can score and should be an absolute handful for Germany on Wednesday. With Maeda playing for Celtic, Minamino for Monaco and Kamada for Eintracht Frankfurt, all three engines up front are certainly accustomed to being involved in high-scoring environments. It's Japan's back-end that I'm concerned about, especially against a clinical and dare-I-say underrated German squad. Keeper Shuichi Gonda has struggled at the best of times in his home country and most recently allowed a pair of goals in a friendly against Canada. While Germany has no such issues at the back-end with veteran Manuel Neuer between the sticks, I do think it could be vulnerable in the middle of its defense with Sule and Rudiger not exactly in peak form. Watch for Jamal Musiala as he looks to make a real name for himself on the international stage in this tournament. He enters in terrific form off a string of fine performances for Bayern Munich in Bundesliga play. Take the over (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Rangers v. Kings UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. While we don't see many totals set at 5.5 these days, if there were a game where it might be warranted, this is it. The Rangers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total. Since exploding for eight goals in a victory in Detroit on November 10th, they've managed to score only nine goals in four games since. Defensively, they yielded 12 goals over a three-game stretch from November 3rd to 8th but have allowed only nine goals in five games since. It's a similar story for the Kings. They scored nine goals in a two-game stretch from November 12th to 14th but have managed to find the back of the net only six times in three games since. They haven't been quite as airtight as the Rangers defensively but have limited the opposition to less than 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season which is an accomplishment by today's NHL standards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-10 with New York playing on the road following a game that totalled four goals or less while the 'under' has gone 31-16 with the Kings playing at home following consecutive losses against division opponents. Take the under (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-22 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these teams have shot with incredible efficiency lately, the pace just hasn't been there to dictate a posted total at this level. Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and hasn't reached 90 since back on November 4th in Washington (in a game that still totalled only 214 points). Meanwhile, the undermanned 76ers have hoisted up 79 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games and haven't attempted more than 83 field goals in any of their last six contests. While both sides have allowed their opponents' pace to tick up a little higher than they'd like in recent games, that's certainly not their M.O. and not something I expect to see continue. Note that Philadelphia has still limited seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It's a different story for Brooklyn as it has allowed three of its last four foes to knock down 43 or more field goals but it's unlikely the Sixers can take full advantage given their laundry list of current injuries. Take the under (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Tunisia v. Denmark UNDER 2.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tunisia and Denmark at 8 am et on Tuesday. Tunisia will do everything in its power to fight to a 0-0 draw in its World Cup opener against Denmark. The Danes might just oblige them as they’re lacking the punch to break through offensively right out of the gates in this tourney, relatively-speaking of course. Note that Tunisia has held seven of its last eight opponents scoreless, with the exception being Brazil. On the flip side, you would have to go back seven contests to find the last time Denmark tallied more than two goals, which might just be asked of it to get this one 'over' the total. Even if one of these teams is able to find the back of the net, as the Danes are likely to do, the equalizer might just be a bridge too far. I’m surprised there are still 2.5’s to be found at the time of posting and we’ll pay the tariff to get that number here. Take the under (8*). |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month (1H). My selection is on the first half 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have generally been slow starters offensively this season, scoring more than 14 points in the first half only once through their first seven games. While we won with the first half 'over' in last week's eventual victory over the Chargers, I won't hesitate to go the other way as they head to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday night. Arizona came up with its best defensive effort in weeks in a 27-17 victory over the Rams last week. I actually don't mind Colt McCoy at quarterback given the team's current state as he doesn't tend to stretch out plays and force the offensive line to block for extended periods the same way Kyler Murray does (McCoy also lacks Murray's elusiveness and mobility of course). This is obviously a favorable matchup for the 49ers vaunted defense but I do think the Cards can do enough to extend some drives and eat some clock early on. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense remains somewhat capped in terms of its ceiling with QB Jimmy Garropolo at the helm. My concern for the full game 'under' in this one is that the Cards defense wears down and ends up getting exposed by San Francisco's ground attack and middle-of-the-field passing attack as the game goes on. Early, I do think the Cards can hang, however. Here, we'll note that the first half 'under' is 8-2 with the Niners coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons and 5-1 with the Cards following up consecutive 'over' results over the same stretch. Take the first half under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these teams came back in Week 2 and was not surprisingly pegged as a shootout but fizzled somewhat as the Chiefs pulled out a 27-24 victory that stayed just 'under' the total. While both offenses are missing or dealing with some banged-up key pieces, I believe we're in for a true back-and-forth shootout in Sunday night's rematch. Kansas City's offense keeps rolling along with a 'next man up' philosophy, particularly at the wide receiver position where QB Patrick Mahomes serves as a true talent-elevator. The Chiefs backfield has been a revolving door this season as well but should feast on a Chargers defense that hasn't been able to even slow opposing running games this season and now deals with a cluster of injuries along its defensive line. Los Angeles is expected to have wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back on the field on Sunday. Regardless whether they're 100% healthy, their presence alone should give the offense a much-needed boost after it stalled in the second half against the 49ers last week. QB Justin Herbert has fared exceptionally well against this Chiefs defense in recent years and should be in for another boxscore-stuffing performance on Sunday night. Given Kansas City's tendency to allow opposing running backs to get loose in the short passing game, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler sets up well to go off in this matchup as well. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 in the Chargers last nine games following a road loss, resulting in an average total of 55.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 219.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday evening. Charlotte continues to roll offensively, despite having little to show for it in the win column. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in five consecutive games and now faces a forgiving Wizards defense that has allowed six of its last eight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Washington has knocked down 41+ field goals in six of its last seven games and Charlotte has certainly proven to be vulnerable defensively with five of its last seven foes making good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. To me, this has been a rather uneventful CFL season with things going mostly as planned with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers entering the Grey Cup favored to win once again. While I do think Winnipeg ultimately wins this game, I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll call for the Blue Bombers defense to come up big again while both offenses play it conservatively enough to help keep this one 'under' what I consider to be an inflated total. In an odd quirk, this will be the first time either side faces a different opponent in the last four games. By that I mean, the Argos have faced Montreal in each of their last three contests while the Bombers are coming off three consecutive games against the Lions. These two teams faced each other just once during the regular season and the result was a 23-22 Winnipeg victory in Toronto. That game actually eclipsed the closing total by a half-point, so we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total here. I don't believe it's warranted. While Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson avoided costly turnovers against Montreal last week, he has been turnover-prone over the course of the season and I don't believe Toronto wants to put too much on his plate here, especially with veteran RB and former Bomber Andrew Harris in the backfield. The same goes for the Bombers, at least to a certain extent, as they're always comfortable doing just enough offensively while putting most of the load on their elite defense, which has been the class of the CFL this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 6-3 the last nine times the Argos have sought revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent while the 'under' is 18-11 in Winnipeg's last 29 games when installed as a favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most have this game projected as a shootout between two of the NFC's elite teams in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. I'm not so easily convinced. Both teams are coming off poor defensive performances last week with the Cowboys coming away with an overtime loss against the down-trodden Packers and the Vikings coming from behind to defeat the Super Bowl-contending Bills, also in overtime. While Minnesota's defense continues to give up a ton of yardage to opposing offenses, it has done a reasonable job of limiting points, and more specifically touchdowns. Note that last week marked the first time all season the Vikings had yielded more than 26 points in a game. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from Weeks 3 through 5. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league but haven't shown it in the last couple of games against the Bears and Packers. That's been somewhat game-script dependent as they've been playing from ahead most of the way (something they don't necessarily project to do here in this near pk'em priced contest). Note that Dallas enters this game leading the NFL in sacks per game and only two teams have held the opposition to fewer yards per pass play. While you can run on these Cowboys, it seems that opponents are rarely able to resist the urge to test their aggressive pass defenders, often leading to negative results. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys have checked in as a road favorite of a field goal or less only twice over the last three seasons and both of those games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is also 9-4 in the Vikings last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous contest and 25-12 the last 37 times they've played at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 42.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Commanders v. Texans OVER 41 | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got burned with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game as they were stymied time and time again in the red zone, falling by a 24-16 score on the road against the Giants. I do think we'll see them clean things up back home on Sunday as they catch the Commanders playing on a short week off a massive upset win in Philadelphia on Monday night. On the flip side, we know the Commanders want to run the football, which often works against playing 'overs' in today's NFL. With that being said, the Texans have shown no ability to stop the run this season, yielding 5.2 yards per rush. Standout rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been a bright spot for the Texans otherwise pedestrian defense this season but now he's sidelined due to injury. His absence should have the Commanders looking to take their shots downfield with an underrated group of wide receivers led by Terry McLaurin. Take the over (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-22 | USC v. UCLA UNDER 76.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday. USC has now seen each of its last four games go 'over' the total, even though last week's game against Colorado really had no business getting there (yes, I'm still a little sour after backing the 'under' in that game). In that game against the Buffaloes, the Trojans defense came up big, holding Colorado out of the end zone until there were fewer than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Offensively, USC didn't score a touchdown until the fifth minute of the second quarter and it will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against a UCLA defense that has given up its share of points, but has come up big at times as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times USC has gone on the road after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.9 points. UCLA, meanwhile, checks in off a stunning 34-28 home loss against Arizona and that's notable as the 'under' is 27-9 in the Bruins last 36 games when coming off a loss by a touchdown or less in conference play. That situation has produced an average total of only 50.0 points. Last year we saw a closing total of 65.5 in this matchup. The fact that game totaled a whopping 95 points and USC is on an 'over' streak has this total set higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Wolves v. 76ers OVER 222.5 | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Minnesota's current road trip got off to a sluggish start with a 114-103 loss in Memphis but since then we've seen the T'Wolves put up 129 and 126 points in wins over the Cavs and Magic. They've actually been playing at a considerably slower pace than expected lately but I look for that pace to tick up for this one. Note that Philadelphia has been a little more forgiving defensively than usual in recent contests, yielding 88, 89, 94 and 90 field goal attempts to its last four opponents. That's worth noting as they had limited nine of their first 11 opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts this season. In that vein, the T'Wolves have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 47, 44, 40 and 42 field goals. Each of their last five opponents have hoisted up 88 or more field goal attempts. Despite playing on the second of back-to-back nights, the 76ers would appear poised to take advantage of their scoring opportunities in this matchup, noting they scored 120 and 133 points in two meetings with Minnesota last season and enter this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in three consecutive games - their longest such streak of the season to date. Take the over (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Providence and Miami at 4 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been made to look very good offensively over the last couple of games but that's had everything to do with the level of competition they've faced. Here, we'll note that neither team has allowed an opponent to get off 60+ field goal attempts through three games this season. We've also seen some good discipline out of both teams defensively, with Providence yielding just 10 free throw attempts per game and Miami checking in allowing 13. In what projects as a tightly-contested affair with Miami favored by just a couple of points, I'll back the 'under' in Uncasville on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 44 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Northwestern and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Northwestern's season has been circling the drain for weeks now and last week's 31-3 loss at Minnesota might have represented rock-bottom. I do expect the Wildcats to put up somewhat of a fight this week as they look to bounce back after scoring just 10 points combined in their last two games. Purdue has a knack for letting opponents hang around here in West Lafayette and Northwestern has won five consecutive trips here going all the way back to 2009. With that being said, this is a smash spot for the Boilermakers offense so rather than grab the points with the visitors, we'll go with the 'over' as this total continues to move in the wrong direction in my opinion. An injury to RB King Doerue seemingly opened the door for what might be a good one in Devin Mockobee. He has ran for 100+ yards in four of the last six games, reaching the end zone in five of the last six contests. Northwestern's defense has been cooked for 4.8 yards per rush this season. Of course, the Wildcats pass defense hasn't been much better, especially since losing CB Coco Azema to a season-ending injury in October. While Northwestern isn't likely to throw all over Purdue - not with its top two quarterbacks both questionable due to injuries suffered last week - I do think it can make considerable gains on the ground, where Purdue has sagged as the season has gone on, yielding 122, 179, 184 and 102 rushing yards over the last four games. As I mentioned, the Boilers give up their share of points here at home, where they've allowed 35, 0, 26, 37 and 24 points in five contests this season. The outlier came in a Week 2 matchup with FCS squad Indiana State. Take the over (8*). |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-22 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure any team has impressed me more offensively than the Thunder this season. After cashing with the 'over' in their most recent game - a 121-120 win in Washington two nights ago - I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five straight games heading into this contest. While they only managed to get off 81 field goal attempts in that win over the Wizards, they've still hoisted up 93+ field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have sputtered a bit offensively of late but should be able to get on track here, noting that Oklahoma City has been very forgiving defensively, allowing four of its last five opponents to make good on 44+ field goals. Five of the Thunder's last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts while the Grizzlies have eclipsed that number of attempts in six of their last seven contests so the opportunities should be there for the home side. Memphis has been all over the place defensively but I will note that three of its last six opponents have attempted more than 90 field goals - that after only three of its first nine foes got into the 90+ range. Take the over (8*). |
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11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These aren't the same Kings we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Previous Los Angeles' clubs wouldn't have been able to sniff out a comeback in a game like Monday's in Calgary. In that contest, the Kings fell behind 5-2 and 6-3 but ultimately rallied for a narrow 6-5 defeat, coming one near-miss from tying the game in the closing minute. Los Angeles has now scored nine goals over its last two contests and checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game (an average total of 7.8 goals) on the road this season. The Oilers are back home following a three-game road trip that saw them win two games. They're averaging 3.8 goals per game on home ice this season but also allowing an average of 3.8. Noting that the 'over' is 15-5 the last 20 times the Oilers have come off a win by 2+ goals, as is the case here, with that situation averaging a total of 7.4 goals, we'll confidently back the 'over' in Oil Country on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 228.5 | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Thunder and Wizards on Wednesday. Oklahoma City is running as free-flowing of an offense as you'll find in the NBA right now, hoisting up 102, 111, 93, 88 and 98 field goal attempts over its last five games. Better still, the Thunder have knocked down 41, 50, 52, 55 and 47 field goals over that stretch. There's little reason to expect Washington to offer much resistance as five of its last six opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts. While the Wizards haven't been pushing the pace to the same level as the Thunder, they can certainly get out and run and take advantage of the opportunities they're afforded. In that regard, they should have plenty here as the Thunder have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 93+ FG attempts with three of their last four opponents knocking down 46+ field goals. The Wiz have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five contests. Take the over (8*). |
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11-16-22 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Sabres were involved in another wild, high-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 5-4 score against the Canucks on home ice. Losers of six games in a row, they'll be looking to get untracked in Ottawa on Wednesday and the Senators should prove to be a forgiving foe as they've allowed 4+ goals in seven of their last nine games overall. The Sens scored only two goals in Monday's loss to the Islanders but I'm not overly concerned about their offense and I expect the Sabres will be the cure for what ails them on Wednesday, noting that Buffalo has allowed 5, 5, 4, 7, 3 and 5 goals over its last six contests and gives up 3.5 goals per game on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Knicks v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it as the Knicks head to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz on Tuesday night, with both teams coming off losses. New York has gotten off a whopping 90+ field goal attempts in 10 of its 13 games this season while Utah has done the same in 10 of its last 14 contests. The problem is neither team has offered much resistance to the opposition defensively. New York has been lit up for more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Each of Utah's last seven opponents have knocked down 40+ field goals. We saw both teams shoot poorly in last season's two meetings in this series and as a result both games stayed 'under' the total. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-22 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's no question which way I'm going with the total in this early season showdown between the Spartans and Wildcats. The 'under' has combined to go 3-1 in these two teams' first four games this season and there's little reason to anticipate a reversal of that trend here. Kentucky has been 'filling it up' through two games, knocking down 34 and 28 field goals in blowout wins over Howard and Duquesne - both at Rupp Arena no less. It isn't likely to enjoy the same type of success here, however, noting that Michigan State just got done holding Gonzaga to only 23 made field goals in a tough 64-63 loss on Friday. Speaking of that game, the Spartans could only muster 21 made field goals against the Zags and now deal with a Kentucky defense that limited its first two opponents to just 43-of-133 shooting, despite the lopsided nature of those two aforementioned contests. Noting that the 'under' is a long-term 110-79 with Michigan State playing on a neutral court and 13-2 the last 15 times Kentucky has come off a double-digit home victory, as is the case here, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |
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11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs UNDER 226.5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Cavs most recent game on Friday night against the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they return home to host the T'Wolves. Minnesota is having a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. It has hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Cleveland is obviously a stingy defensive squad, yielding 83 or fewer FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last five games. Each of the Cavs last six opponents have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals. Minnesota has quietly been limiting its opponents' pace as well, permitting fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Cavs offense but this isn't an ideal spot, returning home on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip. Take the under (8*). |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | 115-132 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday but that was a 'bad beat' by very definition as the two teams needed overtime to get 'over' the total. Not much of an adjustment has been made to the total in advance of Saturday's rematch so I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again. Note that Charlotte continues to struggle offensively, making good on just 36, 33, 32, 42, 34 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last six games. In the high-water mark game over that stretch, it still scored 'only' 100 points in a loss against the Wizards. On the flip side, due to a number of key injuries, the Hornets have had to work to slow their opponents' pace in order to stay competitive and that has worked to a certain extent. They've limited six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. Miami shot just 37-of-83 in the first four quarters on Thursday. Of course, the Heat boast one of the best defenses in the league, limiting each of their last six opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down more than 40 field goals and that was Sacramento in a game where it scored 'only' 107 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-12-22 | Washington v. Oregon UNDER 73 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Oregon at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Oregon's most recent home game - a 45-30 win over UCLA three weeks ago. Since then, we've seen the Ducks defense get tuned up in lopsided wins over California and Colorado. While Washington will offer a much tougher challenge, I'm confident the Ducks 'D' will be up for it on Saturday. It's a similar story with the Washington defense as it has seemingly been getting stronger as the season has gone on. Last week, we won with the 'under' in the Huskies narrow 24-21 home win over Oregon State. It has had an extra day to prepare for Oregon with that most recent contest being played on a Friday night. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series to find the last time the Ducks hung 40+ points on the Huskies and as electric as this Oregon offense has been, I don't see that happening here either. We like to play Washington 'overs' in games where it is likely to jump out to a sizable lead, as that tends to be when the Huskies defense sags. In what has the potential to be a relatively competitive affair all the way on Saturday, I'll go the other way and back the 'under'. Take the under (8*). |
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11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday. South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-22 | UMass Lowell v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass-Lowell and Rutgers at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with UMass-Lowell crushing Columbia 89-62 and Rutgers rolling to an 88-50 rout of Sacred Heart (we won with the Scarlet Knights in that game). Note that Rutgers got off 'only' 60 field goal attempts in Thursday's win after hoisting up 72 in its season-opener against a defense-less Columbia squad. The Scarlet Knights have absolutely manhandled their first two opponents defensively, limiting them to 47 and 53 field goal attempts. UMass-Lowell has thrived from beyond the arc through two games, averaging 10 made three-pointers per contest. Rutgers, however, has limited its first two opponents to a grand total of six made threes. Like Rutgers, UMass-Lowell has also played with some defensive intensity in the early going this season, yielding just 18 and 19 made field goals to its first two opponents. After turning the basketball over 21 times last time out and facing a Rutgers defense that has forced 50 turnovers through two games, I can't help but think UMass-Lowell's number one priority in this one will simply be hanging on to the basketball, ultimately leading to plenty of shot clock-draining possessions. Take the under (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 229 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Cavs are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, shooting north of 50% in both of those contests but also allowing the opposition to eclipse the 50% shooting mark. The pace certainly didn't dictate those totals of 236 and 247 points, however, with the Cavs getting off 83 and 86 field goal attempts while holding their opponents to just 79 and 76. Noting that Cleveland has held each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts and 40 or fewer made field goals, I look for the Cavs to lean on their defense to try to bring an end to their first losing streak of the season here. Golden State has limited four of its last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. The outlier came last time out - a game in which the Warriors held Sacramento to just 37 made field goals on 91 attempts (that game stayed 'under' the total). On the flip side, the Warriors opened the campaign by knocking down 41+ field goals in six straight games. Since then, they've eclipsed the 40 field goal mark only twice in five games. Also note that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games. Finally, I'll point to the fact that last year's two meetings between these teams totalled just 193 and 178 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday. After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Sharks gave up five goals for a second straight game in last night's defeat at the hands of the Blues. San Jose has now lost five straight games and desperately needs to button things up defensively as it heads to Dallas on Friday. It should have James Reimer back between the pipes and that's a positive as he's been the superior goaltender over backup Kaapo Kahkonen (who started last night's game) this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 165-113 with the Sharks having allowed five or more goals in their previous game and 19-5 with San Jose's last four games having totalled seven or more goals, which is also the case here. Dallas comes off a 5-1 loss in Winnipeg and that's notable as the 'under' has cashed five of six times it has followed up a loss by four or more goals against a division opponent over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also a long-term 47-29 with the Stars coming off four consecutive 'over' results, which is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are struggling mightily right now with St. Louis' issues coming completely out of left field giving all of the talent on its roster, not to mention the fact that it had gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start this season. Since then, the Blues have suffered eight consecutive losses and it's no secret what the problem has been as they simply can't score with any consistency. St. Louis has mustered two goals or less in eight of its last nine games. While the Sharks have been sieve-like defensively of late, they do come off a bye week of sorts, having not played since Saturday. They should be pleased to be hitting the road, where they've played a much cleaner brand of hockey, allowing only 2.7 goals per game. They don't figure to find much success breaking through offensively, however, as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game on the road and you have to figure Blues head coach Craig Berube gave his team an earful following Tuesday's dreadful defensive effort in a 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in the Blues last 15 games following eight or more consecutive losses, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have seen the 'under' go 19-4 in their last 23 games after playing four consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Nets v. Mavs UNDER 215.5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The first matchup between these two teams this season featured a much higher posted total and that game ended up reaching a whopping 254 points, aided by overtime. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Note that the Nets continue to struggle to just get shots off, let alone knock them down. While there was an outlier of a 50 made field goal performance in a rout of Washington on Friday (we still won with the 'under' in that game), they've been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. Now they face a stingy Mavericks defense that has held four straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, Dallas has gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts in six straight contests. It shot the lights out in each of its last two games (50% or better in both contests) yet still scored 'only' 103 and 111 points. Brooklyn has been stingy in its own right, holding its last four opponents to 87, 89, 83 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Monday. You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams playing better defensive basketball than the Suns and 76ers right now. While both of last year's meetings went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing), I believe the number will prove too high this time around. Phoenix wrapped up a split in a two-game home set with the Blazers, putting on a defensive clinic in Saturday's blowout victory, holding Portland to just 30-of-79 shooting. The Suns have now limited five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of nine foes to 38 or fewer made field goals this season. It's a similar story for the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. They held the Knicks to 37-of-80 shooting last time out and have limited each of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. On the flip side, however, they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six of their last nine games overall. After a hot start to the season, the Suns shooting has cooled off as well as they've made good on 41, 36 and 35 field goals over their last three games, three of their four lowest FG totals of the season. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Hofstra v. Princeton OVER 151 | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hofstra and Princeton at 7:30 pm et on Monday. These two teams met last season with Hofstra prevailing by a score of 81-77. That was a game that saw just 21 made three-pointers and only 15 free throw attempts. Both teams have some talent to replace this season - Princeton in particular with three starters from last year's team having moved on. The cupboard is by no means bare, however. Hofstra adds Tyler Thomas from Sacred Heart, where he averaged over 19 points per game last season and could challenge Aaron Estrada for CAA Player of the Year - an award won by Estrada in 2021-22. While we're dealing with a higher posted total in this matchup than we saw in last year's meeting, I don't believe it will prove to be high enough. Note that the 'over' is 25-10 in Hofstra's last 35 games as a road underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 153.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-2 in Princeton's last 12 non-conference tilts, also averaging a total of 153.4 points in those contests. Take the over (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Blues v. Bruins OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. If the Blues are going to finally bust out of their slump, it's not likely to be a low-scoring victory (they've yielded a whopping 23 goals in their last four games and 4+ goals in five of their last six contests). That's because they have what has been one of the worst goaltending tandems in the league so far this season in Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss. Regardless who starts in goal on Monday, I'm confident we'll see the Bruins bounce back offensively following a 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Maple Leafs on Saturday. Note that Boston is still averaging an impressive 4.2 goals per game this season. Meanwhile, the Blues are giving up 3.9 goals per contest. I do think there's reason to believe the Blues can break through offensively here, however, noting that they've averaged 3.2 goals the 40 times they've come off consecutive losses by 3+ goals, as is the case here. Better still, they check in averaging 3.9 goals in their last 37 road games where the total has been set at 6.0 or higher, which is also the situation tonight. Take the over (8*). |
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11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | 117-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are completely out of sorts offensively right now while both have also shown a pulse defensively of late. I believe this total will prove far too high. Note that Houston has managed to knock down 40+ field goals just once in its last seven games. Minnesota has made good on 41, 40, 37 and 39 field goals in its last four contests. Both teams have limited their opponents tempo to a certain extent lately with Houston holding its last five foes to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The T'Wolves have yielded fewer than 90 field goal attempts to four straight opponents. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 51 | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in heart-breaking fashion in Penn State's eventual lopsided defeat at the hands of Ohio State last Saturday. After a low-scoring first three quarters, things went off the rails in the final frame. It happens. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. It is noteworthy that Penn State allowed just one Ohio State touchdown until over midway through the fourth quarter in last week's contest. It wasn't until the Nittany Lions were forced to abandon their running game in comeback mode late that mistakes started happening and the Buckeyes capitalized. I do still feel that Penn State has an elite defense. Even in a rout at the hands of Michigan three games back, the Nittany Lions gave up just one touchdown in the entire first half. Offensively, Penn State has a bit of a 'feast-or-famine' nature. This is a tougher matchup than it might appear on paper against the 3-5 Hoosiers. Indiana recently held Michigan to just two touchdowns in the game's first 50 minutes and its defense certainly wasn't to blame in last week's loss at Rutgers as it gave up just two offensive touchdowns and only three offensive scores in total (the Scarlet Knights added an interception returned for a touchdown) in a 24-17 defeat. Offensively, the Hoosiers could only muster one offensive touchdown in that entire game with their other notable score coming on a game-opening kick return touchdown. This is a big game for both teams, albeit for different reasons and noting that last year's matchup totalled only 24 points in a Penn State shutout victory, we'll back the 'under' here. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU OVER 69 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and TCU at 12 noon et on Saturday. I don't have a lot of faith in either of these defenses. Texas Tech's offense took a breather last week against Baylor, putting up only 17 points in a 28-point rout. Perhaps the Red Raiders can be excused for that poor performance after they had scored 37, 28, 31 and 48 points over their previous four games. I certainly expect them to light up a TCU defense that has had little to do with the team's perfect 8-0 start. The Horned Frogs have given up fewer than 28 points only twice all season, first in their season-opener against FCS squad Tarleton State (in a game that totalled 76 points) and then in a blowout victory over Oklahoma (that game reached 79 total points). Save for a rout of West Virginia, Texas Tech's defense has been sieve-like this season, most recently allowing three touchdowns in one eight-minute stretch against Baylor last week, at home no less. These two teams got into the 80's in last year's meeting. Expect another shootout on Saturday. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 54.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Oregon State has had to change things up a bit on offense due to a couple of key injuries to QB Chance Nolan and TE Luke Musgrave but the good news is, it has continued to pile up victories, reeling off three straight wins in Pac-12 play entering Friday's showdown with Washington. While we won with the 'over' in the Huskies victory over Arizona the last time it played on this field, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this key home matchup on Friday. I have a lot of respect for the Oregon State defense and I'm confident it can contain an explosive Huskies offense led by QB Michael Penix Jr. Washington wants to throw the football - that's no secret - but the Beavers boast one of the best and most underrated secondaries in the nation in my opinion. On the flip side, Oregon State has shifted to a more balanced attack in the absence of Nolan under center. Note that the Beavers have completed 17 or fewer passes in four of their last five contests. Washington's defense prides itself on its ability to snuff out opposing rushing attacks, yielding just 3.3 yards per rush this season. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game went 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). |
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11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | 128-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 'over' has cashed in the Wizards last two games but the pace certainly hasn't dictated those results. Washington got off 81 and 78 field goal attempts in those two contests while limiting the 76ers to 82 and 84. Yet the two games totalled 229 and 232 points. The Wiz quite simply shot the lights out two nights ago but I don't anticipate a repeat performance here. Brooklyn continues to struggle to get shots off, hoisting up 82, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. On a positive note, the Nets have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts and that should be the focus again here as they come off a loss to the Bulls at home (we won with Chicago in that game). Note that the 'under' is 23-12 in the Nets last 35 games where the total was set between 220 and 229.5 points going back to the start of last season, resulting in an average total of just 222.0 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-04-22 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 227.5 | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While I realize the 'over' is 2-1-1 in each of these teams' last four games, respectively, I don't expect that short-term trend to continue here. Neither team is forcing the issue offensively with the Heat getting off fewer than 90 field goals attempts in seven straight games and the Pacers hoisting up 87 or fewer in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Miami has yielded just 76, 84 and 86 FG attempts to its last three opponents while Indiana has limited five consecutive opponents to 87 FG attempts or fewer. The last two meetings in this series both went 'over' the total but neither would have surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). |
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11-04-22 | UMass v. Connecticut UNDER 40 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. The fact that this game actually means something might be one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. Yes, UConn can gain Bowl eligibility with two wins in its final three games this season and it has to start with a victory here against a very beatable UMass squad. While that may look like a cinch on paper, rarely has anything come easy for the Huskies football program in recent years. I fully expect UConn to 'play it smart' on Friday, leaning heavily on its ground attack in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives and effectively shorten this game in the hopes of dashing the Minutemen's upset hopes. UMass has just one victory this season but it's had nothing to do with poor defensive play. The Minutemen have a talented, experienced defense that is capable of snuffing out a one-dimensional Huskies offense. UConn has thrived off of turnovers, forcing 12 in its last four games alone, so you can be sure UMass's gameplan will involve taking care of the football while also relying heavily on its ground game to move the football. This is obviously a very low posted total but I'm confident it will seem unreasonably high by the time halftime rolls around in this one. Take the under (8*). |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45 | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. This has all the earmarks of a game the undefeated Eagles will look to 'manage' on a short week against a very beatable opponent in Houston on Thursday. Philadelphia had been held under 30 points in five straight games before scoring 35 points in a rout of the Steelers last Sunday. While the Texans are just 1-5-1 this season, they do sport a better defense than that of Pittsburgh. That's particularly true against the pass, an area where I don't anticipate Houston getting overly exposed in this one. Instead, look for the Eagles to pound away and ultimately churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten this game playing on a short week. The Texans offense is seriously hamstrung with QB Davis Mills suffering from a sophomore slump. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce has been a bright spot and you can run on the Eagles, so there's reason to believe the Texans can move the football at times and ultimately do some clock-eating of their own in this one. As a two-touchdown underdog, it's in Houston's best interest to effectively shorten this game as well in order to keep the Eagles within arm's length for four quarters. It's worth noting that while the Eagles have yielded just shy of 5.0 yards per rush this season, they're now even worse off after losing nose tackle Jordan Davis to injury. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 38-19 the last 57 times the Eagles have come off a game in which they scored 35+ points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 227 | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. It took a little while but the Lakers have essentially thrown defense out the window and coming off their first victory of the season, I don't expect them to change a thing as they welcome the Pelicans to Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday. Los Angeles' last three opponents have gotten off 92, 99 and 96 field goal attempts, scoring 110, 111 and 110 points over that stretch. I certainly expect the Pelicans to do a better job of taking advantage of an up-tempo affair, noting that they've knocked down 42+ field goals in five of their six games this season. The Lakers, despite their struggles, have made good on 40+ field goals in four of six contests this season. Here, they'll face a New Orleans squad that has yielded 92+ FG attempts to three of its last five opponents. The scoring opportunities will be there tonight, and I'm confident both teams can take full advantage. Take the over (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 57 | 35-22 | Push | 0 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Central Michigan's offense has been fairly stagnant since opening the season with a wild 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State. The Chippewas enter with just two victories on the campaign. Last time out, CMU was held out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the third quarter against Bowling Green. The week previous it could only muster three offensive scores in a 28-21 win over lowly 1-8 Akron (the other score came on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown). The good news is, outside of one bad quarter against Toledo, the Chips have held up reasonably well defensively in MAC play. They draw a favorable matchup against Northern Illinois here. The Huskies also own just two wins on the season. In their most recent game they didn't reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter against Ohio - their only touchdown of the game. Prior to that they did deliver a 39-10 win over Eastern Michigan. Interestingly, that game opened with an early pick-six in favor of the Huskies but from there they scored a touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the final minute of the third quarter. You get the picture. Both teams are capable of stepping up defensively but also fully capable of going stagnant for extended stretches on offense. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Western Michigan v. Bowling Green UNDER 48.5 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Western Michigan Broncos have had a disappointing season by all accounts, checking in with just three wins through eight games. They have a bit of a quarterback competition on their hands, which is to say no one has really been able to step up and take the reins, even though Jack Salopek was the starter prior to suffering a knee injury two games back. Last time out, the Broncos scored just one touchdown in a 16-10 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until more than midway through the third quarter. Two games back they scored two first half touchdowns but then were shut out over the game's final 31 minutes against a beatable Ohio defense. Bowling Green rolled to a 34-18 win over Central Michigan in its most recent contest. The Falcons did score just three offensive touchdowns in that victory with the other coming on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Prior to that there was a two-game stretch where Bowling Green managed just one touchdown against Buffalo (that came in the final six minutes when the outcome had long been decided) and two touchdowns in a narrow 17-13 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until just over seven minutes were left in the second quarter in that contest. I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks in this key MAC showdown. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 219 | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday This is the back half of a home-and-home set between the Wizards and 76ers after Philadelphia pulled out a 118-111 victory on Monday. We're working with a higher posted total in this quick rematch and I believe it will prove too high. Note that the pace certainly didn't dictate a high-scoring affair on Monday. Philadelphia quite simply shot the lights out. The 76ers got off just 82 field goal attempts in that game. In fact, the 76ers have hoisted up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and 84 or fewer in all eight contests this season. Similarly, the Wizards got off only 81 field goal attempts on Monday. They've made good on just 33, 36 and 38 field goals over their last three contests and have yet to attempt more than 90 shots in a game this season. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Sevilla v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sevilla and Manchester City at 4 pm et on Wednesday. Sevilla was embarrassed by Manchester City when these two squads met back in September, dropping a 4-0 decision, on it's home soil no less. Here, in the return match at Etihad Stadium, I look for the Spanish side to take a much more controlled approach and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Note that four of Manchester City's last five matches have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, Sevilla has seen five of its last seven contests go 'under' that same total. With the English side having taken each of the last three meetings between these two squads, and Sevilla scoring only two goals across those three battles, the latter has a slim margin for error here. With that in mind, I do think we see Sevilla lean on its capable defense and also note that keeper Marko Dmitrovic is coming off consecutive tremendous showings against FC Kobenhavn in Champions League action and Rayo Vallecano in La Liga play. I'm not anticipating any sort of breakout performance from the Spanish side offensively as it has been limited to one goal or less in 10 of its last 11 matches across all competitions. Take the under (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent game with the Senators notably yielding a whopping 58 shots on goal in a 5-3 loss to the Panthers. They've had a couple of days off to shake off that ugly performance and I fully expect the gritty Sens to rebound with a much sharper performance here. Meanwhile, the Lightning are in a bit of a hangover spot, returning home off a successful three-game road trip to California. The Bolts are unlikely to provide such an onslaught of shots as we saw from the Panthers, noting that they've fired 30 or fewer shots on goal in four consecutive games. Ottawa was on fire offensively for a four-game stretch in mid-October but has now scored just five goals in its last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Senators have played on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-22 | Magic v. Mavs UNDER 216 | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Dallas at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. It was a true 'bad beat' for 'under' bettors in the Mavericks 117-111 overtime loss to the Thunder last night. Here, I don't think there's any reason to jump off the 'under' as the Mavs stay home to host the Magic. Orlando posted its first win of the season on Friday, snapping a five-game losing streak to open the campaign. Note that the Magic have gotten off more than 86 field goal attempts just once in six games this season. On the flip side, Orlando has done a pretty good job of slowing its opponents, yielding fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of six contests while also holding its last two opponents to just 36 and 33 made field goals. Dallas is of course an elite defensive team, limiting all five of its opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time this season. Last night, the Thunder quite simply shot exceptionally well from the field - the second time a Mavs opponent has done that in its last three games. I don't see that trend continuing here. Note that the Mavs offense doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, hoisting up 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in four of five contests. Even with overtime last night, the Mavs still knocked down only 38 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Mavs have played for the third time in four nights, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 202.5 points. The 'under' is also 12-2 the last 14 times Dallas has played at home after losing two of its last three games, leading to an average total of 205.9 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a potential shootout inside the friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday. We inexplicably missed with the 'over' in Miami's strange 16-10 win over the Steelers last Sunday night (that contest featured a scoreless second half). The Dolphins jumped ahead early and then eased off the gas against a subpar Steelers squad - something I don't think they can afford to do against the Lions on Sunday. We were also on the 'under' in Detroit's rather uneventful loss in Dallas. I saw a lot of support for the 'over' in that contest last Sunday but I think those 'over' bettors were a week too early as Detroit was still nursing some key contributors back to health (and also lost Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols early in the game). St. Brown is expected back this week and should pace the Lions in what sets up as a dream matchup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. Detroit has been starved for an offensive breakout over the last two games - scoring a grand total of six points against the Patriots and Cowboys. This looks like an ideal spot for QB Jared Goff and the offense to bounce back with Miami missing Byron Jones, Nik Needham and now strong safety Brandon Jones as well after he tore his ACL. The Fins makeshift secondary did hold up alright against the Steelers, although Pittsburgh wasn't all that aggressive in that game. I expect a different story to unfold here as a banged-up Xavien Howard (he's been dealing with groin/quad injuries all season long) is left on an island against a loaded Lions offense. On the flip side, there's little reason to believe that Detroit's woeful defense can hold up well for a second straight game. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from the Miami offense in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked no worse for wear after suffering multiple concussions, deftly distributing the ball to his playmakers. The Lions have been getting roasted by the better offenses they've faced all season, most notably allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt. With Miami likely to smash on the ground, that only serves to set up plenty of big plays through the air against a very beatable Lions secondary. I think there's a good chance we see this one go back-and-forth all afternoon long with neither defense able to string together many stops. Note that the 'over' is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 games following consecutive 'under' results, which is the situation here. Better still, the 'over' is 9-2 in the Lions last 11 games when priced as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Canadiens v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canadiens are coming off a 3-2 win in Buffalo two nights ago as we cashed with the 'under'. We'll go right back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip in St. Louis. Despite the victory on Thursday, Montreal has still mustered only four goals in its three road games to date this season. The good news is, the Habs have played stout defense, limiting seven of their eight opponents this season to three goals or less. The Blues started the season on fire, scoring nine goals in posting consecutive wins over the Blue Jackets and Kraken. Since then, St. Louis has been stymied, going 1-3 while scoring a grand total of four goals. Last time out, the Blues were lit up for six goals in a loss in Nashville but they won't have to contend with that same type of firepower here, noting they gave up just four goals in two meetings with the Habs last season. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse UNDER 48.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. Notre Dame is coming off a high-scoring affair last week as it rolled to a 44-21 win over UNLV in South Bend. The Irish have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season, though, and I don't expect that trend to change as they head to Syracuse to face the upstart Orange on Saturday. The fact that Notre Dame broke out offensively last week wasn't all that surprising. It was up against a sagging UNLV defense and after an embarrassing 16-14 home loss against Stanford the previous week, the Runnin' Rebels were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, I expect the Irish offense to get brought back to Earth against a terrific Syracuse defense that is in a bounce-back spot of its own off a blown opportunity at Clemson last Saturday. Credit the Orange for hanging tough for a half against the Tigers. It allowed a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then held Clemson out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the fourth quarter. The Syracuse offense has seemingly gotten more conservative as the season has gone on (and the schedule has toughened up). Note that the Orange season-high for passes completed in a game is 22 and that came in a contest where they still threw for 'only' 277 yards and scored just 22 points in a narrow win over Virginia. Throwing on the Irish is not easy task. Only one of Notre Dame's opponents this year has thrown for 300+ yards and that was North Carolina in a game where it was playing catch-up most of the way. Only Marshall ran for 200+ yards on the Irish and it took 50 attempts to get there. You get the picture. Notre Dame scored 45 points in a 24-point rout of the Orange in last year's meeting but it was a nearly five-touchdown favorite on that occasion. The gap has certainly closed this year and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |