Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-13-19 | Jazz -7.5 v. Suns | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions and we've actually cashed with the Suns in each of their last two games including Sunday's stunning outright win at Golden State. However, I believe it's time to jump ship here as Phoenix returns home to host what will be a highly-motivated Jazz squad. Needless to say, this is a big letdown spot for the Suns. This is still a team that owns just 16 wins and a losing ATS record this season. The Jazz have dropped back-to-back games since a win and cover in New Orleans last week (we won with Utah in that game). Keep in mind, those two setbacks came against a surging Grizzlies squad and the Thunder. Utah should settle back in here against an opponent it defeated by 28 points in their lone previous meeting this season. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-19 | Blazers v. Clippers +2.5 | 125-104 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers are rolling right now, winners of five games in a row to strengthen their playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Just last night they put up 140 points in a rout of the Celtics. I look for them to keep it going on Tuesday night against the Blazers. Portland has been playing well also but we cashed a ticket fading them against the lowly Suns last time out and that makes it there ATS losses in a row following a seven-game ATS winning streak. The Clippers rank second in the league in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating over their last five games. The Blazers aren't far behind at fifth in the league in offensive rating over that stretch but leave a lot to be desired defensively, ranking 23rd. This has been a tightly-contested series with three previous meetings decided by a total of 18 points this season. Look for the Clips to even up the season series here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-19 | Bucks -9 v. Pelicans | 130-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Bucks as they aim to bounce back from a loss in San Antonio on Sunday. The Pelicans lead the league in pace rating over their last five games but I think that works against them in this matchup. The Bucks can run with the best of them and rank eighth in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. While the Pelicans find themselves in the bottom-third of the league in defensive rating over that stretch, the Bucks sit 16th. After a bit of a surge, the wheels have come off for the Pelicans over their last few games and I look for continuation of that here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-19 | Raptors -9.5 v. Cavs | 101-126 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Fresh off a blowout win in Miami yesterday I look for the Raptors to keep rolling against another inferior opponent in Cleveland on Monday night. Toronto is rounding into form at the defensive end of the floor, just as we expected they would after acquiring Marc Gasol at the trade deadline. The Raps check in eighth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games, and actually sit an identical eighth in offensive rating as well. The Cavs have held their own lately at the offensive end of the floor, ranking 10th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. I just don't see them having a great deal of success against the Raptors in that regard tonight, and it's certainly worth noting that Cleveland ranks 29th in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. With Kawhi Leonard likely back in the lineup for the Raps, I'll lay the points here. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-19 | Suns +17 v. Warriors | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Suns last night in Portland and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix goes on to face the Warriors in Oakland on Sunday night. The Suns now rank an impressive fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They also find themselves in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. The Warriors continue to push the tempo, ranking second in pace rating over their last five games but they haven't made the most of it, sitting 23rd in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating over that time frame. Shooting for a fifth straight ATS win, I'll back the Suns here. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-19 | Rockets -8 v. Mavs | 94-93 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Rockets as they aim to continue their surge in Dallas on Sunday night. Houston has won seven games in a row SU and three straight ATS heading into this one. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating over their last five contests. By contrast, the Mavs have hit a wall. They check in 29th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating over their last five games. Houston has dropped two of three meetings against Dallas this season but in their lone matchup since the start of 2019 the Rockets prevailed by 16 points. Despite suffering a wrist injury on Friday night, James Harden is expected to play for the Rockets on Sunday night. Even if he doesn't, I still like Houston here. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
03-09-19 | Suns +12.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this game sets up for the underdog Suns. Phoenix has been playing some of its best basketball of the season, having reeled off three straight wins, albeit with each of those victories coming at home. I do expect the Suns to stay competitive as they hit the road to face the Blazers on Saturday night. Portland has dropped the cash in back-to-back games and has earned just one straight-up victory over its last four contests. It's been 'crazy 8's' for the Suns lately as entering last night's action, they ranked eighth in the league in pace rating, offensive rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Over that same period, Portland finds itself much farther down the pecking order. Notably, the Blazers rank in the bottom half of the league in both pace rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Phoenix is playing with some confidence right now and it should relish the role of spoiler once again on Saturday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
03-08-19 | Pistons -3.5 v. Bulls | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Pistons have won three games in a row and six of their last seven overall to strengthen their position in the Eastern Conference playoff race. While a letdown could be in order against the lowly Bulls on Friday night, I don't see it happening. Note that Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but that hasn't really had an adverse effect as the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. They also rank top 10 in defensive rating over that time frame. The Bulls pace has shown signs of lagging lately as they rank in the bottom-third of the league over their last five games in that category. Meanwhile, they've been middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating. The Bulls haven't defeated the Pistons since January of last year, dropping all five meetings since. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
03-08-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Grizzlies as they host the Jazz on Friday night. We won with Utah in its last game, a victory in New Orleans on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to switch gears here, however, as the Grizzlies have quietly been playing some solid basketball lately. Memphis is actually tops in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. Over that same stretch, the Grizz have gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. By contrast, the Jazz have dropped the cash in three of their last five games and haven't exactly had an easy time with the Grizzlies this season, dropping two of three meetings with their lone victory coming by eight points. Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups in this series. Take Memphis (10*). |
|||||||
03-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans +5 | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors have been quick to jump off the Pelicans with all of the drama surrounding Anthony Davis going back to before the trade deadline in February but the fact is, New Orleans has evolved into a pretty solid bet lately. Note that the Pelicans rank tops in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They're also a solid 12th in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. Even in defensive rating, where they've struggled for the most part, they rank in the top half of the league over their last five contests. The Raptors limp into this game off back-to-back losses. We've actually cashed tickets fading the Raps in each of their last three SU losses. Toronto is a miserable 1-8 ATS over its last nine contests. Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks -10 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are coming off rare back-to-back losses but I fully expect to see them bounce back in a big way in their return home following a long road trip on Thursday night. Milwaukee continues to push the tempo, ranking seventh in the league in pace rating over its last five games. By contrast, the Pacers check in second-last in the league in that same category over the same stretch. And we know the Bucks are more than capable of making the most of that up-tempo style, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that time frame as well. The Pacers have held their own in that department as well but I simply expect them to get overwhelmed defensively here. Indiana checks in 26th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. This series hasn't been all that close this season with two of three meetings decided by 16 points or more and the other going the Bucks way by nine. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
03-06-19 | Jazz -4 v. Pelicans | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nice bounce-back and quick revenge spot for the Jazz here as they host the Pelicans. New Orleans is on a roll right now, even with Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup and playing very limited minutes. With that being said, I don't see them keeping it rolling as they return home off consecutive games playing in altitude. Note that while the Pelicans rank second in the league in pace rating over their last five games, they're just 15th in offensive rating over that same stretch. Utah holds the edge in both offensive and defensive rating over that five-game sample and the Jazz are obviously the superior all-around team in this matchup, even if things didn't go their way two nights ago. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number in this strong motivational spot for Utah. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Raptors in a similar spot at home last week against the Celtics but then went ahead and faded them in Sunday's overtime loss in Detroit. Toronto will have Kawhi Leonard back at its disposal tonight but I'm not sure that will be enough. The Rockets have won five games in a row, scoring at least 115 points in all five contests. Sunday's game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated in Boston as the Rockets let up in the fourth quarter. They won't be afforded that luxury on Tuesday night as the Raptors present a bigger challenge. With that being said, I like catching points with a team playing as well, and with as much confidence as the Rockets. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
03-05-19 | Bulls +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls as they continue to play well despite most believing they're in 'tank mode'. Chicago has gone 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and has won four games in a row straight-up on the road. While the Bulls rank only 19th in the league in pace rating over their last five games, the Pacers have been far worse, ranking 29th. In terms of offensive rating, the Bulls sit just one spot behind the Pacers over that same stretch, ranking sixth. After a terrific run, the Pacers have now gone 1-3 straight-up and ATS over their last four games. The Bulls have grabbed the cash in three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series and I look for them to hang tough again tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-19 | Clippers +4.5 v. Lakers | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers plus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Everything seemed to come unglued for the Lakers on Saturday night in Phoenix and now their chances of reaching the playoffs are all but gone. Meanwhile the Clippers are in the thick of the playoff picture sitting six games over .500 and with only two losses over their last six games, with both of those coming in altitude in Denver and Salt Lake City. Both of these teams are top 10 in pace rating over their last five games, with the Clippers leading the way in a tie for fifth in the league in that department. While the Clips have lagged a bit offensively, not making the most of that pace they've been playing at, they catch a favorable matchup here with the Lakers ranking 25th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Clippers rank an impressive sixth in that category. Not surprisingly, there's no home court advantage to speak of here with both teams calling Staples Center home. In fact, the 'road' team has won four straight meetings in this series. Take the Los Angeles Clippers (10*). |
|||||||
03-03-19 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons on Sunday as they host the Raptors in Auburn Hills. Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but the slow play has actually been working for it. Note that the Pistons have won eight of their last 10 games overall. They also check in sporting a solid 18-13 home record. Over their last five contests, the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating and sit just one spot below the Raptors in defensive rating, ranking 11th. Toronto is certainly rolling along right now, but the Raps have been far from invincible on the road, where they've lost 11 games this season. The Pistons actually took the lone previous matchup in this series this season, delivering a 106-104 win in Toronto back in November. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
03-02-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Suns | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Suns last night as the Pelicans rallied to win by double-digits right here in the desert. There's little reason to expect anything different on Saturday night as the highly-motivated Lakers challenge the lowly Suns off a hard-fought home loss against the Bucks last night. Phoenix has few redeeming qualities. Not only does it have only 12 straight-up victories this season, it has gone just 26-37 ATS. None of the three previous meetings between these two teams this season have been close, with the Lakers winning all three games by double-digits. Note that over their last five games, the Suns check in 25th in the league in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. They have done a nice job pushing the pace, ranking ninth in pace rating over that time frame, but the Lakers have been even better, ranking fifth in the league. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
03-01-19 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Suns | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Not all that concerned with the status of Anthony Davis in this one. If he plays, we'll consider it a bonus. The fact is, I expect the Pelicans to roll past the Suns, who are coming off their first win in a long time last time out against Miami. The Suns currently rank 28th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Pelicans appear poised to take advantage, ranking second in the league in pace rating over that same stretch. Coming off a narrow loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles two nights ago, look for the Pelicans to bounce back in the desert on Friday night. Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-19 | Jazz +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets are certainly rolling along right now, winners of five games in a row to move to an impressive 42-18 overall this season. I do expect them to face a serious challenge on Thursday night, however, as they host the Jazz. Utah continues to battle for playoff positioning, currently sitting sixth in the Western Conference. The Jazz just wrapped up a perfect 2-0 homestand last night which was much needed after dropping a couple of close ones on the road at Golden State and Oklahoma City. I like the way they've battled and believe they can hang here in Denver, where they lost 103-88 much earlier in the season. I do think they're a different team now and I like the way the spot sets up here as they hit the road for this one-gamer before returning home to host the Bucks on Saturday. Utah's pace of play may handicap it a bit in this particular matchup, but the Jazz have made up for it, ranking second in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-19 | Warriors v. Magic +6.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic are coming off a disappointing loss to the Knicks at MSG two nights ago which came on the heels of a stunning upset in blowout fashion in Toronto on Sunday. We won with Orlando in that win over the Raptors, and we also won fading the Warriors in their loss to the Miami Heat last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here. Note that the Magic rank second in the league in defensive rating over their last five games while ranking fifth in offensive rating over the same stretch. They're also second in assist-to-turnover ratio over that same period. While the Warriors obviously pose some challenges, I believe the upstart Magic will be up for it. Take Orlando (10*). |
|||||||
02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a disheartening loss in Memphis two nights ago, after which Lebron James made some harsh comments regarding teammates that may or may not be 'distracted' by the playoff push. Take from that what you will but I do expect to see the Lakers bounce back as they host Anthony Davis and the Pelicans on Wednesday night. Of course, New Orleans just defeated Los Angeles four days ago, and did so without the services of Davis. We last got involved with the Pelicans last week, fading them in Indiana, where they ultimately lost by 15 points. It's certainly been a tough stretch for the Lakers lately, but they've actually played only one home game since Lebron James returned from injury and the result was a 111-106 win over the Rockets coming out of the All-Star break. I'll lay the points in what is a strong motivational spot for King James and co. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
02-27-19 | Warriors v. Heat +9 | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Golden State at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat may be struggling on the heels of nine losses in their last 11 games but they did give the Warriors all they could handle in a narrow two-point loss, on the road no less, a little over two weeks ago, and I look for them to hang tough on Wednesday night as well. Miami can ill afford to let its slide continue for much longer as it currently sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, a game-and-a-half back of the eighth and final playoff spot. Knowing they have to travel to Houston for another extremely tough matchup tomorrow night, I do think we'll see the Heat's best effort against the Warriors here. Golden State is coming off an 11-point win in Charlotte on Monday but has still failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven contests. Call it a lull, or call it whatever you want, but the fact is the Warriors are an elite team, not an elite bet - in fact, they've been one of the worst bets in the league since the start of last season. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -4 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Raptors on Sunday afternoon as they were in a clear letdown spot at home against the Magic coming off Friday's emotional (close) win at home against Demar Derozan and the Spurs. The Raps lost that game against the seemingly overmatched Magic outright, in blowout fashion no less. Here I’ll switch gears and back Toronto as it hosts a big game against the rival Celtics. There’s not a lot separating these two squads talent-wise even if the standings say otherwise. The Celtics have taken two of the previous three meetings this season. We've actually won with both sides in this matchup this season. The Raps have a rested Kawhi Leonard for this one and I’m confident they’ll be back up for it after Sunday’s no show against Orlando. Expect a competitive game but I'll lay the short number. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. On the heels of seven straight wins, the Raptors find themselves in a letdown spot on Sunday afternoon as they host the Magic. Toronto's win over San Antonio on Friday was an emotional one as they hosted Demar DeRozan for the first time since he was dealt for Kawhi Leonard in the offseason. The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and capable of hanging tough here, noting they've split two meetings with the Raptors this season, with their lone loss coming by just two points. Take Orlando (10*). |