|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-06-21||Mali v. Uganda OVER 2||0-0||Loss||-101||12 h 44 m||Show|
My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.75 goals between Uganda and Mali at 9 am et on Monday.
|09-05-21||Kenya v. Rwanda UNDER 2||1-1||Push||0||1 h 37 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.0 goals between Rwanda and Kenya at 9 am et on Sunday.
While Rwanda will be at home for this match, where it has gone undefeated in its last three matches, it will by no means be an easy task as it looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to Mali last time out. Kenya is the considerably higher ranked squad but after earning a point in a 0-0 draw against Uganda, it will simply be looking to carve out a similar result here. In fact, the 0-0 draw would serve both sides just fine on Sunday. That's a good thing as neither squad boasts much offensive firepower while at the same time being fairly difficult to break down defensively. Kenya has gone undefeated in its last five matches and should be the very definition of a 'tough out' away from home in this one. Note that Rwanda hasn't managed to tally a single marker in its last four matches against the Kenyans. This is a low total, even by international soccer standards. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set it low enough. Take the under (10*).
|09-01-21||Netherlands v. Norway OVER 2.5||Top||1-1||Loss||-102||32 h 47 m||Show|
World Cup Qualifying 1H Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 1.0 goal between Norway and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday.
I'm certain we'll see the Netherlands come in with the mindset that they need to find an early goal in this match as the longer it stays 0-0, the better the chances that Erling Haaland works his magic and pulls off a stunner for the underdog Norwegians.
Of course, the Dutch are brimming with talent - that was on full display during Euro 2020, but unfortunately only in the group stage. After making an early exit at the hands of the Czechs (by way of a 2-0 shutout), the Netherlands will be eager to gain a positive result here. This is certainly a favorable matchup as while Norway does boast starpower in Haaland up front, it is not all that deep and should be hard-pressed to contend for 90 minutes.
With that in mind, I don't believe Norway has the belief in itself to play for a 0-0 draw in this one. The Norwegians know that they'll need to take some chances in attack if they're to have any chance at stealing a point from the Netherlands. It's not as if the Dutch are invincible - noting that they suffered a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Turkey in World Cup Qualifying back in March.
Norway has seen five first half goals in three previous World Cup Qualifying matches this year. Finding an early goal from one, if not both of these sides on Wednesday should not be difficult. I believe two first half markers is well within the realm of possibility. Take the first half over (10*).
|08-26-21||Crvena Zvezda v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25||2-1||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between CFR Cluj and Red Star Belgrade at 2:30 pm et on Thursday.
NOTE: I'm reccomending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.0 goals, laying about -175 to do so at the time of writing. This of course ensures we at least get a push should the match end on exactly two goals. If alternate totals are not available at your book, I would still suggest playing the 'over' at 2.25 goals.
Red Star Belgrade is looking to advance in Europa League action after bitter disappointment in Champions League qualification. It should be well on its way after securing a 4-0 victory at home in the first leg of this matchup. Despite the seemingly comfortable lead, I don't expect Red Star to sit back and 'park the bus' in this one as an aggressive attacking CFR Cluj side should afford the Serbian superclub plenty of opportunities to expand its margin.
Cluj are no strangers to high-scoring affairs, noting that they fell by an aggregate 4-2 score against Young Boys in their unglorious Champions League exit. The seven-time Romanian champions do still have to carry some confidence here as they've actually gone a perfect 6-0 in league play this season and will certainly want to put on a good show here at home. Note that for as well as Red Star has performed, it has already lost a pair of matches away from home in league play and has dropped four of its last six overall on the road.
Cluj is expected to have forward Alexandru Paun back for this match following his one-game suspension. I see little reason for the Romanian side to hold anything back as it needs a small miracle to secure advancement from this tie. We'll without a doubt see changes to the Cluj lineup following an unfruitful effort in the first leg.
Red Star will undoubtedly use this match as a step-off point as it looks to continue on in Europa League play while also tuning up prior to its return to league action. As I said, this is a squad that has an attacking mindset regardless the situation and I don't expect to see it satisfied with its 4-0 lead. I suspect there are at least three goals to be had in this match. Take the over 2.0 goals (6*).
|08-26-21||Zalgiris v. Bodo / Glimt OVER 3.25||0-1||Loss||-127||5 h 36 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Zalgiris and Bodo Glimt at 12 noon et on Thursday.
NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.5 goals (laying -195 at the time of writing). The standard total currently being offered is 3.0 goals.
This is a Europa Conference League match.
Bodo Glimt holds a considerable talent edge in this match yet the first leg ended in a 2-2 draw. I'm confident that result will have both sides come out with an attacking mindset in this one, noting that each of the previous two matches between these two squads has totaled exactly four goals (Bodo won 3-1 last September).
The real question here is whether we believe Zalgiris can break through as the match price says it all with Bodo Glimt a considerable favorite. I believe it can do just that as Bodo has proven to be vulnerable on the back end - noting that it has seen at least three total goals scored in 10 of its last 16 matches, despite many of those matches coming against inferior opposition.
We already witnessed Bodo Glimt become somewhat complacent in the second half in the first leg of this matchup and a similar situation is in the cards here - especially if/when they build a lead. They're capable of messing around as much as they'd like and still finding the back of the net on a couple of occasions here.
Meanwhile, having already found a marker in each of the last two meetings, Zalgiris has a blueprint for denting the Bodo defense. I believe we'll see a worst-case scenario 2-1 result here and more likely higher-scoring affair. Take the over 2.5 goals (5*).
|08-13-21||Arsenal v. Brentford UNDER 2.5||0-2||Win||100||4 h 15 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Brentford and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Friday.
These two clubs have a lot to prove, albeit for different reasons, as they open the English Premier League season on Friday afternoon.
For Arsenal, it can ill afford to drop three points against newly-promoted Brentford. There have been enough trying times for the Gunners in recent years, it will certainly be determined to at the very least stay level following a poor preseason showing.
As for the Bees, this is obviously a triumphant day as it finds itself playing an EPL match for the first time in over 70 years. Brentford will without question find the going much tougher at this level than it did in the English Championship, where it sealed its promotion with a two-goal showing against Swansea City back in May.
Staying level with Arsenal would obviously serve as a major victory for the Bees in front of their home faithul. Regardless, I feel we're in for a tightly-contested cagey affair on Friday with goals coming at a premium. Take the under (5*).
|08-10-21||Ferencvaros v. Slavia Praha OVER 2.5||0-1||Loss||-130||17 h 49 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Slavia Prague and Ferencvaros at 1 pm et on Tuesday.
Slavia Prague was stunned by a 2-0 score in the first leg of this Champions League qualifying matchup last week. Back at home, I certainly expect it to answer back but will it be enough to win on aggregate - it obviously has a serious uphill battle down two goals without an away goal to its credit. Needless to say, we should see Slavia Prague come out with an attacking mindset here.
Ferencvaros is unlikely to roll over or settle into a defensive shell, despite the 2-0 advantage. Keep in mind, it has scored a whopping 13 goals in just five matches in the 2021 campaign. Going back to 2020 we find that it managed to find the back of the net in difficult matchups against the likes of Juventus, Barcelona and Dinamo Zagreb.
Note that Slavia Prague remains vulnerable at the back-end with two key defenders sidelined, Ondrej Kudela due to a UEFA-imposed suspension and David Hovorka as a result of injury. If it wants to advance beyond this stage it will likely need to topple this total all on its own. Thankfully, that's not a requirement, however, with Ferencvaros likely to ripple the net at least once as well. Take the over (7*).
|08-05-21||Celtic v. Jablonec UNDER 2.5||4-2||Loss||-122||14 h 3 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between FK Baumit Jablonec and Celtic at 11:45 am et on Thursday.
Celtic desperately needs to avoid a defeat in this Europa League qualification match on Thursday as it comes off a rare opening day loss in the Scottish Premiership last weekend. Having also just been ousted from Champions League qualifying last week, morale isn't particularly high for the Scottish side. This is by no means a gimme as it travels to the Czech Republic for the first leg of this matchup on Thursday.
Goals haven't been easy to come by for Jablonec, which is coming off a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Mlada Boleslav last Saturday. While Celtic is by no means a defensive powerhouse, I'm not convinced Jablonec is well-positioned to take advantage on Thursday. The Czech side has been known to go with just one attacker up front and I suspect it will be content to allow Celtic to control the bulk of the possession on Thursday, and wait for an opportunity to strike in transition.
With neither of these sides instilling a great deal of confidence on the attack, it's difficult to envision a scenario where either finds the back of the net more than once. Keeping in mind this if the first leg of this matchup, I'm anticipating a cagey, low-scoring affair on Thursday. Take the under (10*).
|08-04-21||Benfica v. Spartak Moscow UNDER 2.5||2-0||Win||100||15 h 8 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Benfica and Spartak Moscow at 1 pm et on Wednesday.
This match has all the makings of a low-scoring encounter as these two squads do battle in the first leg of their Champions League qualifier.
Spartak Moscow already has two league matches under its belt in Russia, managing just a single goal - that coming from the penalty spot. There's little reason to expect a sudden offensive outburst from Rui Vitoria's squad here as it hosts favored Benfica.
The Portuguese side is still getting its legs under it following four preseason league matches. Benfica won't have all hands on deck for this one with newly-acquired Ukrainian standout Roman Yaremchuk not yet acclimated.
Here, we can expect Benfica to be content should it find an away goal ahead of hosting the second leg of this matchup next week. I simply feel that two goals from either squad will be a bridge too far on Wednesday. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*).
|07-29-21||Canada v. Mexico UNDER 2.5||1-2||Loss||-135||14 h 54 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Canada and Mexico at 10 pm et on Thursday.
While Mexico should certainly prevail in this match to advance to the Gold Cup Final, victories have rarely come easy for El Tri at this stage of the tournament and Canada serves as the very definition of a 'tough out'. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday.
I actually think this one could play out similarly to Canada's narrow loss to the USA earlier in this tournament. Without the likes of Cyle Larin and of course Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, the Canadians don't have the firepower to welcome a high-scoring affair here. Mexico has shown a desire to go on the attack throughout this tournament, while also keeping a clean sheet from wire-to-wire so far.
After scoring three goals against Honduras I suspect Mexico will be hard-pressed to find the back of the net more than once in this one. On the flip side, Canada simply doesn't have its 'A' squad right now due to injuries and will find the Mexican back end extremely difficult to break down. Take the under (6*).
|07-20-21||Guadeloupe v. Suriname OVER 2.5||Top||1-2||Win||120||33 h 59 m||Show|
Gold Cup Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Suriname and Guadeloupe at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
Both of these teams have come away pointless through their first two matches in the tournament and will be heading home following this contest on Tuesday. With that being said, both have shown plenty of promise, particularly on the attack, and I expect to see a wide-open, free-flowing affair on Tuesday night in Houston.
Suriname has fired an incredible 26 shots through its first two matches, despite facing two of the strongest teams in the tournament in Jamaica and Costa Rica. Gleofilo Vlijter has been particularly impressive and needs just one more goal to pull even for the most in his country's history. Here, Suriname should find the going a lot easier against what has been a rather disorganized Guadeloupe defense at times in this tournament. That's not to mention the fact that Guadeloupe goalkeeper Johann Thuram has been one of the weakest in the field. He may not even start this match, but regardless, I expect Suriname to find offensive success.
Guadeloupe's strength is clearly up front where it boasts three dynamic attackers in Phaeton, Mirval and Ramothe. We've yet to see Matthias Phaeton find the back of the net but I believe a goal isn't far off for the Guadeloupe striker. We've seen numerous lapses from the Suriname defense in this tournament, most recently conceding two goals in two minutes after grabbing an early second half lead against Costa Rica last time out. We saw Suriname hold strong defensively for a half against the Costa Ricans but I actually feel that may have been a more favorable matchup defensively as Costa Rica doesn't boast the same level of speed as this young Guadeloupe squad.
There's little reason for either side to sit back as both play for pride and attempt to notch a rare Gold Cup victory on Tuesday. I believe this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining, if not fundamentally or tactically impressive, matches of the tournament. The fact that we're able to play the 'over' 2.5 goals at a plus money return (at the time of writing) is a bargain in my opinion. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*).
|07-16-21||Costa Rica v. Suriname UNDER 3||2-1||Push||0||14 h 50 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Suriname and Costa Rica at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.
Suriname had its chances to score against Jamaica in its Gold Cup opener but ultimately came up empty in a 2-0 defeat. Here, I believe those chances will be few and far between against an experienced Costa Rica side that is coming off a 3-1 victory over Guadeloupe.
Costa Rica let its guard down during injury time before the end of the first half, giving up its lone goal of the match. In general it did do a nice job of neutralizing Guadeloupe's strength, which certainly lies up front with capable attackers in Mirval, Phaeton and Ramothe.
Here, Costa Rica will face a tougher defensive side than it saw in its tournament opener. It should also find it a little more difficult to dominate the possession as it did last time out. Suriname actually held a 53% to 47% possession edge against Jamaica. I don't expect it to find the same level of success in that regard here, but it will get its share of the ball against the Costa Ricans - I'm just not sure it will lead to anything fruitful on the attack. The situation lends itself to the 'under' in my opinion.
Credit Costa Rica for finding the back of the net three times on Monday. However, given the fact that Guadeloupe received a red card relatively early in the second half, the damage probably should have been worse had Costa Rica been in top form. Look for it to continue to search for that form on Thursday as it likely controls this match most of the way, but fails to do enough to eclipse this generous total. Take the under (9*).
|07-14-21||El Salvador v. Trinidad & Tobago UNDER 2||2-0||Push||0||13 h 47 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.25 goals between El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.
NOTE: I would recommend playing this total at 2.25 or 2.5 if that becomes available (totals have generally been rising throughout the day in this tournament), giving us the opportunity to still get a return should the final score land on two goals.
El Salvador only managed to break through with two goals in the final stages of its opening match against lowly Guatemala - a team that only got in this tournament thanks to Curacao's Covid issues, which forced it to withdraw. While El Salvador will likely hold the majority of the possession once again in this match, the question remains whether it can break through, noting that it was previously held scoreless in a 1-0 loss to Qatar (which gave up three goals against Panama last night) in a pre-tournament friendly match.
Trinidad and Tobago will certainly be looking to earn at least another point here after a stunning 0-0 draw against mighty Mexico in its tournament opener. There's little reason to expect it to switch up its gameplan and go on the attack in this one as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of affair. Trinidad and Tobago has scored just two goals in three matches going back to the start of June, and those two tallies came against Saint Kitts and Nevis - a team that holds a 135th FIFA ranking.
With three points already under its belt, El Salvador is in the driver's seat in the group and ahead of a tough match against Mexico will certainly be content to earn at least a point in this match. Unlike what we saw in last night's two matches, I expect this to be a cagey, low-scoring contest, as the relatively low total implies. Take the under 2.25 goals (9*).
|07-13-21||Grenada v. Honduras UNDER 3||0-4||Loss||-103||14 h 11 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 3.0 goals between Honduras and Grenada at 9 pm et on Tuesday.
Grenada checks in as decided underdogs in its group here at the Gold Cup. I have a hard time envisioning it breaking down an experienced and talented Honduras back-end but on the flip side, Honduras isn't the side it once was and I'm not convinced that a blowout is imminent in this group stage opener.
Honduras is undergoing a 'rebuild' of sorts right now, having been on the decline since missing out on the 2018 World Cup. You would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time it won a match inside 90 minutes, which is obviously a concern as it finds itself in a tough group that also includes CONCACAF outsider Qatar and Panama. Gaining three points from this match is obviously paramount but I believe a 1-0 or 2-0 result is the most likely outcome.
Grenada won't be able to lean on a great deal of experience, with the majority of its attackers under the age of 25. That's what makes the prospect of finding a goal so difficult here as it goes up against a stout Honduras defense that just held Mexico without a shot on target last time out.
One of the strengths of this Grenada squad is in its last line of defense as goalkeeper Jason Belfon is expected to make his 44th appearance. I would expect Grenada to play a somewhat conservative style here as it looks to contain Honduras and perhaps steal a point to open this tournament.
The fact that Honduras is expected to give playing time to striker Jerry Bengston is telling when you consider that he hasn't featured in this tournament in a decade. Short on offensive firepower, I'm not convinced it will be looking to attack should it build a lead as expected. Take the under (9*).
|07-13-21||Panama v. Qatar OVER 2||3-3||Win||100||12 h 21 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between Qatar and Panama at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
I'm fairly high on this Qatar side entering the Gold Cup as it makes its first tournament appearance by way of an invite in advance of hosting next year's World Cup. The 'outsiders' in this tournament are favored to advance from their group and rightfully so, with a cohesive squad featuring many players that play and train together at the club level in their home country.
Qatar is brimming with talent up front, led by dynamic striker Akram Afif. Don't be fooled by the fact it was held to just a single goal against El Salvador in a friendly match earlier this month - Qatar was penalized with a red card in the first 20 minutes in that contest, forcing it to play back on its heels the rest of the way.
While Qatar is on a run of clean sheets right now, it has also been facing inferior squads in World Cup Qualifying - the likes of Oman, India and Bangladesh. The fact that it was able to post a shutout despite being a man down most of the way against El Salvador was impressive but here it will go up against a Panama side that has lost only one group stage fixture in this tournament going all the way back to 2011.
Panama may not be the same team it was when it reached the World Cup in 2018 but it still should pose a challenge here. Knowing that it is unlikely to keep Qatar off the scoresheet entirely, its focus should be on generating scoring opportunities after being shut out in each of its last two matches. Panama didn't start veteran striker Gabriel Torres in either of those two contests but he is expected to feature here.
Prior to its last two matches, Panama had scored at least a goal in five consecutive contests in World Cup Qualifying. That included a 13-0 drubbing of Anguilla back in early June. While we won't see an offensive explosion from the Panamanians against a well-organized Qatar side here, I do expect it to do enough to help this one 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (9*).
|07-11-21||England v. Italy UNDER 2||1-1||Push||0||17 h 21 m||Show|
My selection is on the first half 'under' 1.0 goal between Italy and England at 3 pm et on Sunday.
NOTE: I'm recommending playing the alternate first half total of 1.0 goal if your book offers such an option on Sunday. Consider this a 9* play if 'under' 0.75 goals in the first half is your only option.
We won with the Spain-Italy full game 'under' and the England-Denmark first half 'over' in the semi-final round and I believe we're well-positioned to cash this first half total in Sunday's epic Final between Italy and England as well.
England had its hand forced early on against Denmark in the semis. It was put back on its heels after Denmark managed to break through with an early free kick goal just outside the penalty box and the match essentially changed from there. The Three Lions were able to answer inside the first 45 minutes but that was it for scoring until extra time.
Here, I'm anticipating another cagey affair between England and Italy - with the latter proving to be perhaps the most impressive outfit in this entire tournament. We've seen the Italians look dominant at both ends of the pitch. I do expect to see a bit of a 'feeling out process' early in this showdown on Sunday, however. The Italians perhaps haven't looked quite as decisive on the attack in recent matches, which has a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced.
England has suddenly looked extremely dangerous offensively following a bit of a slow start to the tournament. With that being said, this is clearly its toughest test of the tournament to date. It's not going to be easy to break down a stout Italian defense.
The argument can certainly be made that both teams are here thanks to their defensive prowess and form more than anything else. I just don't envision any early breakthroughs. A 0-0 halftime result seems most likely and while we're being asked to pay a considerable tariff to play the 'under' at a full goal, I believe the price is warranted. Take the first half under (10*).
|07-07-21||Denmark v. England OVER 2||1-1||Push||0||7 h 55 m||Show|
Euro First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.5 goals between England and Denmark at 3 pm et on Wednesday.
Yesterday's semi-final match between Italy and Spain saw a goalless first half as both teams' ball possession prowess was on full display. I'm anticipating a different type of contest on Wednesday - at least early on - as England and Denmark battle to decide which squad faces the Italians in the Euro 2020 Final.
Unlike Italy and Spain, these two teams are unlikely to be content simply possessing the ball. I think both know that they're going to need to find the back of the net once, but more likely twice to secure victory here.
England has recorded a clean sheet in each of its first five Euro matches. It's worth noting that no side has ever done so in six consecutive matches in World Cup/Euro history. The Three Lions will undoubtedly have their hands full trying to contain a Denmark side that has gotten stronger with each passing match and has managed to score at least a goal in 11 of its last 12 matches overall (the only shutout came against Finland under terrible circumstances with Christian Eriksen's on-field cardiac arrest in the Danes tournament opener).
I like the confidence the English have shown as they've gone on the attack against Germany and Ukraine with the onset of the knockout portion of the tournament. Gareth Southgate has a wealth of options at his disposal, and most involve players that look to push forward and apply pressure on opposing defenses.
Denmark has certainly found its form offensively with Kasper Dolberg supplanting Yussuf Poulson and tallying three goals in the last two matches. The Danes have managed to reach the target on 25 of 43 shot attempts over their last three matches after doing so on just 11 of 43 attempts in their first two contests. Jordan Pickford is an excellent keeper on the English side but he hasn't been all that busy in this tournament, recording just nine saves in five matches.
Denmark has conceded at least a goal in four of its five tournament matches to date but has yet to concede a first half goal. I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend, however, and again I think we see a different type of affair compared to what we watched between two ball-possession minded squads in Italy and Spain yesterday. Getting out on the front foot will be paramount for both England and Denmark in this match and I believe an early breakthrough will be in the cards.
If your book offers alternate first half totals I would suggest playing this one at a slightly steeper price at 0.5 rather than the standard 0.75 being offered, ensuring the win should the first 45 minutes see a single goal. Virtually all books offer the opportunity to play alternate first half totals by way of live betting as soon as the match kicks off. Take the first half over (10*).
|07-06-21||Spain v. Italy UNDER 2.25||1-1||Win||50||8 h 45 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Spain at 3 pm et on Tuesday.
NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'under' at 2.5 goals rather than the standard 2.25 being offered at most books. This of course ensures we're paid out should the game land on two goals (excluding extra time).
We've had a pretty good read on Italy in this tournament, cashing three tickets along the way. After getting bogged down against Austria in the knockout round we saw the Azzurri come up big in a 2-1 victory over number one ranked Belgium. Here, I think we'll see Italy have a difficult time breaking down a very well-organized Spain squad, however.
That goes both ways though. Italy hadn't conceded a goal in this tournament (and well before that as well) before giving one up in extra time against Austria. On Saturday, the only goal it conceded against Belgium came by way of a penalty.
Spain is obviously loaded with talent all over the pitch and particularly up front but it still couldn't break the deadlock against Switzerland in the quarters despite the Swiss going down a man due to a red card in the 77th minute. Switzerland managed to keep a clean sheet from there, including 30 minutes of extra time before falling in a penalty shootout.
When you get to this late stage of the tournament, goals can come at a premium and that's precisely what I expect to see on Tuesday. These are two of the best ball possession teams in the field and a 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 result after 90 minutes seems the most likely outcome. Take the under (10*).
|07-02-21||Spain v. Switzerland UNDER 2.5||1-1||Win||100||5 h 10 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Switzerland and Spain at 12 noon et on Friday.
Both of these teams were involved in extremely high-scoring affairs in the knockout stage with Switzerland upsetting France on penalties and Spain getting past Croatia in extra time. Here, I look for a much more cagey affair with goals coming at a premium.
High-scoring games aren't generally the norm as these international tournaments progress but that's certainly what we saw in the knockout stage. While Switzerland managed to survive against France thanks to a thrilling comeback, I don't think it wants to put itself in a similar position again here. While Spain hasn't always looked its best in this tournament, or in recent months for that matter, it certainly has exceptional talent as we saw against Croatia. I don't think we'll see the Swiss look to open things up too much at the risk of getting exposed at its own end of the pitch or in transition.
Prior to its 5-3 win over Croatia, Spain had conceded just one goal in its first three matches in this tournament. In fact, it had given up just one goal in its last five matches combined going back to a pair of friendlies leading up to the tournament. Take the under (10*).
|06-29-21||Germany v. England UNDER 2.5||Top||0-2||Win||100||14 h 56 m||Show|
Euro Knockout Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between England and Germany at 12 noon et on Tuesday.
After yesterday's two thrilling, high-scoring games, most will be quick to go 'over' this low total in Wednesday's first of two knockout stage matchups. I'll go the other way, however, as I envision England having a tough time breaking down Germany, and vice versa.
Germany is certainly not without its flaws defensively. It has allowed five goals in three matches in this tournament to date, conceding in all three contests. With that being said, England has shown precious few flashes of brilliance on the attack, generally looking hamstrung in all three tournament matches to date.
At its own end of the pitch, the Three Lions have looked well-organized, however, and while Germany offers a stiff challenge, I believe England will be up for it in front of the home faithful at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday. While we've become somewhat accustomed to high-octane, thrill-a-minute matches involving Joachim Low's German side in this tournament, I expect a different story to unfold here as things generally tend to tighten up in the knockout stage (you wouldn't know it by yesterday's results, of course). Take the under (10*).
|06-28-21||Spain v. Croatia UNDER 2.5||3-3||Loss||-130||14 h 22 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Croatia and Spain at 12 noon et on Monday.
Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results in their group stage finales with Spain rolling to a 5-0 victory over Slovakia and Croatia pulling out a 3-1 win over Scotland to book its place in the knockout stage. As we've seen so far in the knockout stage, however, goals should become much tougher to come by here.
Croatia will be without arguably their top scoring threat in Ivan Perisic following a positive Covid diagnosis. We've seen Croatia revert back into its defensive shell at times during this tournament and that could very well be its best chance at staging an upset against Spain here on Monday.
Spain is brimming with talent but it hasn't always come together the way it did against an overmatched Slovakia side last time out. La Roja have actually been held to one goal or less in three of its last five matches overall, including a pair of 0-0 draws against Portugal and Sweden.
Spain knows it has the ability to stay well-organized and ultimately prevail in a 1-0 type of contest here. That's essentially the framework that it employed in the first two matches of this tournament before things opened up for it against the Slovaks'. Take the under (10*).
|06-27-21||Portugal v. Belgium UNDER 2.5||0-1||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Belgium and Portugal at 3 pm et on Sunday.
With so much scoring ability on both sides it may seem like a curious decision to back the 'under' in this star-studded knockout stage showdown on Sunday. However, I believe we'll see both teams mirror one another in what is likely a 1-0 or 1-1 outcome after 90 minutes.
Belgium has conceded just a single goal in this tournament, that coming in the opening minutes against an emotional Denmark squad that was playing in front of the home faithful in Copenhagen following the stunning events involving Christian Eriksen in its opening match. Apart from that, Belgium has looked rock solid at its back-end and I would expect that to continue against the defending European champions on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Portugal's 4-2 loss to Germany is still fresh in the minds of most entering this clash. Of course, Ronaldo and company did redeem themselves somewhat with a 2-2 draw against France to close out the group stage and wrap up an advancing third-place position in their group. I believe Portugal is a better-organized, more stout defensive squad than it has shown in its last two matches and here in the knockout stage against the top-ranked nation in the world, should settle into a slightly more conservative shape.
We should see plenty of flashes of brilliance in this match but I believe the oddsmakers have it right setting a relatively low total on Sunday. Take the under (10*).
|06-26-21||Austria v. Italy OVER 2.5||0-0||Loss||-100||9 h 37 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Italy and Austria at 3 pm et on Saturday.
I'll take a shot with the 'over' but would recommend playing it at 2.0, even with the steeper price, if your book offers alternate totals on Saturday afternoon.
Italy hasn't conceded a goal since late last year, covering a string of more than 1,000 minutes of action. With that being said, we have seen Austria at least show the ability to go on the attack when it wants to with the super duo of Christoph Baumgartner and David Alaba capable of creating some magic. That being said, Italy will be extremely difficult to break down but just a single goal from the Austrians would likely seal a win for us with this play.
On the flip side, the indecisiveness the Austrians have shown in figuring out whether to sit back and defend or look to push forward could certainly leave them vulnerable against a clinical Italian attack here. Even if Austria is able to hold the Azzurri back for an extended stretch, the floodgates could certainly open late, similar to what we saw between Portugal and Hungary earlier in the tournament (we won with the 'over' 2.5 in that match despite a 0-0 score with less than 10 minutes remaining).
Italy has a wealth of options to lean on up front and while it is extremely stout at the back, it will likely be without its experienced workhorse in Giorgio Chiellini for this one. Meanwhile, Austria welcomed back one of its top attacking threats in Marko Arnautovic from a one-game ban in its last match and he'll be a welcome sight against such a tough Italy defense. Take the over (10*).
|06-23-21||Poland v. Sweden UNDER 2.5||2-3||Loss||-150||5 h 18 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Sweden and Poland at 12 noon et on Wednesday.
|06-22-21||England v. Czech Republic UNDER 2.25||1-0||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Czech Republic and England at 3 pm et on Tuesday.
England hasn't looked all that creative on attack in its first two matches in this tournament, managing just a single goal - that coming in the second half of its opener against Croatia. Here, I expect the Three Lions to find life rather difficult once again as they face a Czech Republic squad that has been tough to break down in this tournament so far.
The lone blemish on the Czech record came by way of a 1-1 draw against Croatia last time out. That result could be looked at as a success of course as it assured the Czech's of advancement to the knockout stage of the tournament thanks to a previous 2-0 win over Scotland.
The only goal we've seen the Czech Republic allow in this tournament came on an incredible solo effort from Croatia's Ivan Perisic. England, however, has shown few glimpses of such ability here in this tournament with striker Harry Kane struggling to find much open field. We're likely to see some changes to the England lineup on Tuesday but I'm not expecting those changes to suddenly open the floodgates.
Keep in mind, while first place in the group is up for grabs in this match, I'm not convinced that either side will be overly interested as that placing likely results in a matchup with one of the three top-flight squads in the 'Group of Death' (France, Germany and Portugal are likely the three to advance in that group). That's not to say we'll see both sides sit back on their heels in this one, but I'm not anticipating a free-flowing affair either. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*).
|06-21-21||Netherlands v. North Macedonia OVER 3||3-0||Push||0||15 h 49 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Netherlands and North Macedonia at 12 noon et on Monday.
|06-20-21||Wales v. Italy UNDER 2.5||Top||0-1||Win||100||15 h 0 m||Show|
Euro Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Wales at 12 noon et on Sunday.
After we won with the 'over' in Italy's tournament debut against Turkey we cashed with the Azzurri but missed with our free play on the 'under' in their 3-0 victory over Switzerland last time out. Here, I'm confident we'll finally see a match involving Italy total less than three goals as they take on Wales with both sides looking for little more than a tune-up leading up to the knockout stage.
At least seven changes are expected to Italy's starting lineup. The Azzurri are obviously a deep squad but there's no question we're going to see a drop-off in execution, particularly at their opponent's end of the pitch with the likes of Immobile, Barella and Insigne likely on the bench. Even Chiesa, who made a late entrance into the match against Switzerland may start this contest on the sideline.
For Wales, it is coming off a somewhat improbable 2-0 victory over Turkey that all but assured it advancement to the next round. After looking rather punchless in its tournament opener against Switzerland, a game they somehow managed to draw 1-1, the Welsh did show much more promise against Turkey. Now that they have four points under their belt, however, we're unlikely to see the same type of fire from the Welsh here. Lineup changes are almost a certainty and the fact that they're such a sizable underdog against what is essentially Italy's 'B' squad is telling in my opinion.
A 2-0 result is the most likely outcome in this contest. With that being said, a 0-0 or 1-1 result is well within the realm of possibility as well should Italy show no interest in playing for keeps. Take the under (10*).
|06-18-21||Czech Republic v. Croatia OVER 2.25||1-1||Loss||-50||6 h 51 m||Show|
My selection is on Croatia vs. Czech Republic 'over' 2 goals at 12 noon et on Friday.
NOTE: I recommend playing this total at a slightly steeper price at 2 rather than the standard 2.25 being offered. Most books will allow you to play the alternate total of 2 priced around -145 at the time of writing.
We saw a very uninspiring performance from Croatia - the 2016 World Cup runner-up - in its tournament-opening 1-0 loss to England (we won with England in that match). Here, I look for it to come out with an attacking mindset as it could certainly use the three points, already sitting three back of both aforementioned England and today's opponent, the Czech Republic following its impressive 2-0 victory over Scotland.
While the Czechs managed to keep a clean sheet against Scotland it wasn't without some difficulty as the Scots generated a number of quality chances, ultimately firing 19 shots with four of them reaching target. I do think that Croatia boasts the finishing ability that Scotland lacks. Leading up to this tournament, Czech Republic had conceded at least a goal in five consecutive matches.
In my analysis of my play in support of the Czechs and the 'over' in their last match I pointed to their dynamic scoring ability led by striker Patrik Schick. Right on cue, he delivered two goals in their opener, including what will likely go down as the goal of the tournament. I would certainly expect him to remain dangerous here as the Czechs should be eager to proceed forward knowing that three points would secure their place in the knockout stage.
It's worth noting that we've seen one side score at least two goals in five of the six 'matchday two' contests at this tournament so far. It's not really until 'matchday three' that we look to take strong 'under' positions. With earning at least a point imperative for both sides, and neither all that likely to deliver a clean sheet, we'll look for some goals on Friday. Take the over (10*).
|06-17-21||North Macedonia v. Ukraine OVER 2.5||1-2||Win||109||3 h 54 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Ukraine and North Macedonia at 9 am et on Thursday.
Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring tournament openers and I expect a similar story to unfold on Thursday.
With both sides coming up empty point-wise on matchday one of this tournament, we can expect both to come out with an attacking mindset as they look to take all three points from this contest.
For Ukraine, this is its most winnable match of the three and it should bring plenty of confidence after rallying from a 2-0 deficit only to fall 3-2 against the mighty Netherlands last time out. If you've followed my plays regularly, you know that I'm high on the Ukraine attack led by Yarmolenko, Yaremchuk and Zinchenko. As we saw against the Dutch, the Blue and Yellow are capable of scoring against the best of them and should feast in this favorable matchup against North Macedonia - the lowest-ranked team in the tournament.
With all of that being said, I do think there's a goal out there for North Macedonia in this contest. They managed to find the back of the net once against Austria, albeit on a defensive miscue in the penalty area. As good as Ukraine is up front, it is vulnerable in the back and North Macedonia hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely since last November, when it suffered a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Armenia. Take the over 2.5 goals (9*).
|06-16-21||Switzerland v. Italy UNDER 2.5||0-3||Loss||-145||8 h 10 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Switzerland at 3 pm et on Wednesday.
|06-15-21||Portugal v. Hungary OVER 2.5||3-0||Win||100||4 h 7 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Portugal and Hungary at 12 noon et on Tuesday.
This is a critical match for both sides - in fact, all three matches will be critical for all four squads in this very difficult group that also includes mighty France and Germany. With that in mind, I fully expect Portugal to come out with an attacking mindset as it looks to take all three points against Hungary on Tuesday.
Not to be outdone, Hungary also believes it has a good shot at advancing in this tournament and why not as it enters this contest riding an 11-match unbeaten streak. I think it's important not to get too carried away by Hungary's two recent international friendly results - a sleepy 1-0 victory over Cyprus before settle for a 0-0 draw in a rather uneventful affair against the Republic of Ireland last week. This isn't a team without creativity at the opposing end of the pitch, having scored a whopping 10 goals in three World Cup 2022 Qualifying matches back in March, including an impressive 3-3 draw against Poland. The duo of Sallai and Szalai up front are certainly capable of breaking through for at least one marker against a Portugal defense that isn't quite what it once was, especially with Joao Cancelo sidelined due to a positive Covid test.
Of course, Portugal is more than able to overcome any sort of adversity here with a brilliant attack led by Cristiano Ronaldo and perhaps soon to become household name Diogo Jota.
Portugal fielded its 'A' squad in a friendly match against Israel last week (we won with Portugal -1.5 in that contest) and while it got off to a bit of a slow start it eventually 10 shots on target, scoring four goals including a brace from Bruno Fernandes.
With Spain and Sweden's 0-0 draw in yesterday's final match, not to mention Portugal's recent 0-0 draw with Spain (we won with Portugal +0.5 goals in that match) fresh in the minds of many bettors, I think some are hesitant to play the 'over' in this one. That's fine with us as it offers us a generous return with a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*).
|06-14-21||Czech Republic v. Scotland OVER 2||2-0||Push||0||3 h 52 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2 goals between Scotland and the Czech Republic at 9 am et on Monday.
|06-13-21||Ukraine v. Netherlands OVER 2.5||2-3||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between the Netherlands and Ukraine at 3 pm et on Sunday.
We followed both of these sides closely in international friendly action leading up to this tournament, cashing some plays along the way. Here, in the opener of a Euro tournament where both are expected to advance past the group stage, I'm expecting to see some scoring in what I envision as a potential 2-1 match.
Note that the Netherlands will be without keeper Jasper Cillessen due to a recent positive Covid test. It will also be without defender Virgil van Dijk after he suffered an ACL injury. I mentioned that the Dutch could be vulnerable in the back against Scotland in a recent international friendly (where we won with the 'over') and they indeed struggled, allowing a pair of goals in that draw.
I'm higher on the Ukraine than some in this tournament as I feel they have enough talent, particularly up front, to give the opposition plenty of headaches. However, there are question marks in the back-end, noting that Ukraine enters this tournament having managed just two clean sheets in its last nine matches. Of course, those did come in its last two matches, but those were against the likes of Northern Ireland and Cyprus - two fairly punchless attacks. Here, the Ukraine will face a much different challenge against a Dutch side brimming with talent and explosiveness.
The common line of thinking here is that both teams will play this opener cautiously with hopes of at least earning a point and solidifying their chances of advancement past the group stage. I think it goes the other way, however, with the two teams looking to get off and running on a positive note and make somewhat of a statement here on Sunday. Take the over (10*).
|06-12-21||Switzerland v. Wales OVER 1.75||1-1||Win||50||2 h 26 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 1.5 goals between Switzerland and Wales at 9 am et on Saturday.
I'll keep my analysis for this one short with kickoff quickly approaching. I simply feel there's a very good chance we see each side find the back of the net in this match and will play the alternate total over 1.5 goals for a positive start to our Saturday. Switzerland is coming off a 7-0 drubbing of Liechenstein and while it will certainly find the going much tougher against a fundamentally-sound Wales squad, I do expect it to break through, noting its actually been a number of years since the Swiss were last held off the scoresheet entirely. For Wales, it needs to hit the ground running if it is to have any chance of advancing from a very difficult Group A. The Welsh are coming off a 0-0 draw against Albania in a match where they looked quite disinterested, perhaps with an eye on the start of this tournament. Switzerland is by no means a defensive juggernaut, having conceded against the likes of the USA, Finland and Bulgaria in fixtures since the beginning of March. Take the over 1.5 goals (10*).
|06-11-21||Italy v. Turkey OVER 2.25||3-0||Win||105||30 h 22 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' 2 goals between Italy and Turkey at 3 pm et on Friday.
NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the alternate total of 2 goals at a slightly steeper price (around -125 at the time of writing) as opposed to the standard 2.25 being offered at most books.
Most have this pegged as a conservative, low-scoring defensive battle between two sides that bring excellent form into Friday's Euro 2020 opener. I'll go the other way, however, as I believe a 2-1 final is the most likely outcome in this one.
Turkey has a history of rising to the occasion, particularly when it comes to goal-scoring, against some of the world's football elite. Most recent, we saw Turkey put up four goals in an impressive World Cup 2022 qualifying match against the Netherlands in March. The Turks also managed three goals against a solid Croatian side last November. Last October, they scored three goals in a draw against Germany. Going back even further, Turkey scored three goals and took four of a possible six points in two matches against mightly France in qualification for these Euros back in 2019.
Meanwhile, Italy brings outstanding form into this tournament, having scored 11 goals in its last two matches, albeit against lesser foes in San Marion and the Czech Republic. The Italians actually haven't conceded a goal since last October against the Netherlands but apart from a match against Poland last November (that match still reached two total goals in a 2-0 Italian victory) their schedule hasn't exactly been littered with international football powers.
With Switzerland and Wales rounding out Group A, I believe both sides will be confident 'going for it' in this tournament opener on Friday. Both countries should feel there are six points two be had in their other two matches, not easily mind you. Take the over (10*).
|06-08-21||Albania v. Czech Republic OVER 1.5||1-3||Win||100||17 h 19 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Albania and Czech Republic at 2:15 pm et on Tuesday.