An under streak by the Giants has allowed for a very low total. The Week 1 meeting had a total of 44.5. This one is below 40. That's too low, even with the sorry state of the Giants. Tommy DeVito may be just what the Giants need for a game to go over. He went 15-of-20 for 175 yards with a touchdown in relief. He may help the Giants offense but he could also turn the ball over and give Dallas easy points. The Cowboy's last game finished with 51 points. The Cowboys' previous game finished with 63 points. Seven of the Cowboys' 8 games have produced 40 or more points. The other had 37. The Cowboys might go over this total by themselves but they won't need to. *** NFC East TOY

The Huskies don't play much defense. They gave up 51 points last game. The Dukes scored 42 last game. That was the 3rd time they've scored more than 40 since Sept. 23rd. It's unlikely but they have the capability to go over this total by themselves. They won't need to though because UConn will also score. Before scoring just 3 at Tennessee, they scored 33, 38, 21 and 14 in their previous four. The Huskies should contribute at least 14 again and the Dukes will more than take care of the rest. Go with the Over. ***2023 NCAAF TOY

This total is simply too low. It's by far the lowest these teams have had against each other over the last 10 meetings. The Cardinals average 45.1 points in their game. The Huskies average 48. Ball State's last game finished with 45. NIU's last game finished at 68! Last year's game finished with 82 points. The 2021 game had 59 points. The 2020 game had 51. This one flies over the total! ****MAC TOW

The Chargers can score points with the best of them but they often can't stop the other team from doing the same thing. Their games average 48.9 points. Nine of their 10 games in 2023 have finished above the 40 point mark. The other one nearly did, landing on 37. The Chargers and Jets last faced each other in November of 2020, Justin Herbert's rookie year. The total was set at 47. The game finished with 62 points! Herbert threw for 366 yards (277 in the first half!) and three touchdowns. Keenan Allen set a franchise-record 16 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Though this Jets defense is better than that one, Herbert will have success again tonight. This will be the Jets' third game against AFC West teams this season. The first two finished with 43 and 52 points, both going over. This one will do the same! ***MNF toy

When the Bengals and Bills played each other in the playoffs, the weather wasn't good. There was lots of snow and the temperature was below zero. Despite the conditions and despite playing without some pieces of their offense, the Bengals still put up big 27 points and more than 400 yards. The Bills couldn't get going until it was too late. No snow in tonight's rematch and both offenses will benefit. Bills are averaging more than 30 points their last 2 road games and 27.8 points a game on the season. Bengals started slowly on offense this season but have gone over the 30 mark in 2 of their last 3. Last nine games Bills were underdogs all went over. Scores of 78, 54, 60, 58, 62, 82, 60, 62 and 78! This will make 10 straight. ***AFC TOY

I get it. These are bad offenses. Plus, Iowa has a really good defense. Knowing that a lot of bettors will like the under at any line and that few will play the over in this game, the oddsmakers have had to post a really low total. Too low! Northwestern just combined with Maryland for 60 points. QB Sullivan, who has breathed life into the Wildcat offense, passed for 265 yards (2 touchdowns) and ran for another 56. Iowa scored 33 points in last year's game, nearly going over the total of 37 by itself. Final score was 33-13. The Hawkeyes just announced that their offensive coordinator (Brian Ferentz) won't be back next year. They're going to want to show that their offense is better than people think. A Wildcat team that gives up an average of 29.5 points per game over their last 6 will allow for that! Northwestern's last football at Wrigley Field? a 47-point affair against Purdue. Go with the Over! ***big ten toy

You don't regularly get totals in the 30s for MAC Conference games. Not between these teams at least! When they faced each other last year, the O/U line was 62.5. The 2021 meeting had an O/U line of 72.5! The year before that, the total was "only" 60 and the Golden Flashes and Zips combined to score 104 points! Six of the past seven meetings, including each of the three I mentioned, have produced at least 38 points. This year, Kent State games average 45.5 points. Akron games average 44.8 points. Last night's MAC games both finished well above this number. The Buffalo/Toledo game had zero fourth quarter points, due to the blowout nature of the score, but the game still finished with 44. The other game (Central Michigan / Northern Illinois) finished with 68. This number is too low! ***mac TOM

Recent Chargers games have slipped beneath the Vegas total. Otherwise, this total could be in the 50's. Tonight's game will be higher-scoring. These are not good defenses. Chargers allow 2nd most yards to opposing offenses, 406.8 per game. Chargers also allow 25.8 points a game. Bears allow 26.9. The Chicago offense has come to life. Bears have scored 28 or more in 3 of their last 4. Their last road game resulted in a 40-20 win. Over is now 6-1 in Chicago games. The Bears are going to keep scoring. The heavily favored Chargers are going to score even more. The end result? Another Chicago Over. ***Non-Conf. TOW

Both teams have been involved in some low-scoring games, keeping and bringing the total down. This represents the lowest total for a Viking game all season. Both are still seeing their games average greater than 43 though. Jordan Love has gone through some growing pains of late but a game against a mediocre Viking defense will give him a chance to get right. He'll have to be effective to keep pace with Cousins. The Vikings just threw for 378 yards (452 overall) against SF! Minnesota's last 3 visits to Lambeau have produced 58, 47 and 50 points. We'll take advantage of the low number and go with the Over. *NFC North TOY

Cowboys are off a game where 82 points were scored. Their last 2 have both finished with more than 70 and their last 4 have all produced at least 50. Three of those went over the 60 mark. The Bearcat defense was strong at the start of the season but has now surrendered 30 or more points in back-to-back-to-back games and four of the past 5. Cincinnati offense put up 450 yards in last week's loss vs Baylor. They also accumulated 498 yards in their last road game, a 35-27 loss at BYU. The Cowboys will score a lot but the Bearcats won't go away. The end result? A game that goes over the total. *Big 12 TOY

Charlotte games have been low-scoring but this is a historically low total for a game between the Owls and 49'ers. Eight meetings between these teams. The O/U lines all fell in a range from 54.5 to 65.5. Six of the past seven finished with at least 43 points. Five of those finished with 47 or more. Last year, they combined for 56 points. On the subject of 56 points, FAU scored that many all by itself the last time it was on the road. FAU games are averaging more than 49 on the season. This one will get over the small number. *AAC TOW

Thursday Night football from Lane Stadium is always a good time. So was last year's game Syracuse. It finished with 77 points even though the total was only 45. VT has scored 30 and 38 its last 2 home games. Defenses aren't playing as well as you might think. Hokies have given up 21 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Syracuse has permitted 40 or more in back-to-back games and has conceded 30 or more in 3 straight. This one's going over the total! *ACC TOY

Both teams are consistently scoring. NMSU scored 34, 27 and 28 last three games. LA Tech has scored 24, 28 and 23 its last three games. At home, the Bulldogs are averaging 34.5 points but also giving up 28.3. Off their bye last year, the Bulldogs next game finished with 72 points. The O/U line for that game was 52.5. This one will also result in a shootout. Go with the Over. *CUSA TOW

This total could easily be lower. The Arizona offense has come down to earth, a lack of talent becoming evident.The Cardinals have scored 16, 20 and 9 points in their last three games. Seattle managed only 13 last week. The last two Seahawk games have both finished with 30 or less. When Arizona played here last season, the score was 19-9. The year before, it was 23-13. The Cardinals will again have trouble scoring and that will lead to this final score staying below the total. *NFC West TOY

Stanford fans won't soon forget last week's stunning comeback. That was against a porous Colorado defense. Now the Cardinal will be facing one of the toughest defenses in the country. Scoring will be extremely difficult, let alone coming back. Stanford only scored 13 against UCLA last year and may not even get that many in this one. The Bruins' defense is that good. Remember, in the game before Colorado, the Cardinal scored only 6 points. Off their previous loss, the Bruins' next game stayed below the total by double-digits. This one will also stay under! *Pac 12 TOY

The Mustangs are going to score early and often. They scored 69 in a game earlier. The Mustangs scored 31 and 34 their last two games. Now they get to go up against the Owls, who have allowed more than 40 points in four straight games. The Owls did score 34 in their last game here. Even if down, they won't just quit trying to score. The Mustangs' last five games against Temple saw them score: 59, 60, 45, 45 and 47! Those are just SMU scores, not combined. Every one of those games got to at least 65. All five went Over the total. This one also will. *AAC TOW

Saints have been an under cash machine this season. As a result, we've got a really low total for Thursday's game against Jacksonville. It's important to understand that Jaguar games average 44 points. The Jax offense has gotten better and better. They scored 31 in the opener but then dropped all the way to 9 in their next game. After that they went from 9 to 17 to 23 to 25 to 37. It's fair to say that they're clicking on all cylinders. The Saints didn't score many last game but they did have well over 400 yards of offense. Also, they scored 34 in their previous game. They'll be able to move the ball and score on TNF. The Jaguars have played here twice in the past. Both those games finished with 65 points. This one might not produce that number of points but it'll produce more than enough to get us over this low total. *Thursday Night Total Of The Year

A total in the 50's gives us a lot of room to stay under and that's the way I'm going this Monday. These teams are both known more for their offenses but there is also plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers kept the Raiders to 17 points last game but only scored 24. Off a bad loss to SF, Dallas will want to improve on defense. Off only previous loss, the Cowboys gave up just 3 points in their next game. These teams last meet in 2021. The total was 55 but they finished with 37. The previous three meetings before that one had scores of 34, 51 and 37. That's an average of 39.75 for the past four meetings. This one won't reach 50. *MNF TOM

Low number. Much lower thanks to the Jones injury. Forget Jones for a minute, the Bills can score this many themselves. Don't believe me? Ask the Dolphins. The Bills put up 48 points against them. Before that, they scored 37 and 38 against the Commanders and Raiders. The Giants have allowed 24 or more in seven straight games, 30 or more in two of their last three. Heck, they're allowing an average of more than 30 per game. As mentioned, Daniel Jones is out. But is that really a bad thing? The Giants were 1-4 with Jones behind center. Tyrod Taylor is a capable veteran. Having started 43 games for the Bills, he'll have a chip on his shoulder when playing his former team. At the least, he'll help to light a spark. Buffalo will score big and the Giants will do "enough." This game goes Over! *NFL TOM

Some might say that all signs point to an under. Baltimore is off 3 straight unders. Tennessee is, too. Games across the pond are often different though. If you haven't noticed, these games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the only stadium designed specially for NFL games outside of North America, a tendency to be quite high-scoring. Last week's game here produced 45 points. The opposite has been the case in the games at Wembley Stadium. The last four Wembley games have all finished with 38 or less. The six games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all finished with 43 or more. Both offenses are filled with talent and capable of more than they've shown. This will be on display, the final score going Over. *AFC TOW

LSU has been money for the over all season. That comes to an end Saturday. With all the LSU games going over, the totals have been going up and up. Games between these SEC rivals rarely reach the 60 point mark though. The past seven Auburn versus LSU games have had the following scores: 38, 43, 59, 43, 43, 50 and 31. Only one of the past 10 meetings had a total which was as high as this one. Auburn gave up 27 against Georgia and 27 at Texas A&M. Before that Auburn permitted 14 or fewer points in each of its first three games. Holding Georgia to 27 points and 19 first downs was pretty good when considering that the Bulldogs scored 49 in the game before Auburn and 51 in the one after. If Auburn can slow down Georgia, it can slow down LSU. The games may have gone over, but LSU is still loaded on defense. Points won't come easily for Auburn. Count on another low-scoring "Tiger Fight." *SEC TOY

I've got this one finishing with more than 50. These teams haven't played since 2020. So, most of the faces are different. Mike Houston, ECU's coach, is still here though. He knows that type of these games these teams typically play against each other. The last one finished with 90 points. The one before had 110! Prior to that, games had 86, 72, 69 and 83. The rivalry gets renewed on ESPN this evening and we'll see more offensive fireworks.

The Mustangs can really score. They put up 69 points in a game last month and they had 34 last game. Last year, their first under offensive minded coach Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs averaged more than 37 points and more than 473 yards. The Mustangs will look forward to facing the Pirates suspect pass defense.

We know SMU will score tonight. ECU will, too. The Pirates have scored 28, 17 and 44 their last three games. Off their previous loss, the Pirates scored 44. They average 28.5 at home. With SMU projected to finish with 30+ and ECU projected to score 20+, the final score finishes above this low total. *AAC TOY

They may not have Aaron Rodgers behind center but the Jets have one of the best defenses in football. Their early season defensive stats are a bit skewed by the fact that three of their first four opponents have been the Chiefs, Cowboys and Bills. All three of those teams are top 10 scoring offenses. The Broncos are better defensively than they've shown. They turned the corner defense in the second half of last week's game. It was their defense which keyed the comeback. Last year's game had 25 points. The year before had 26. This game also goes Under. *AFC TOM

The Wildcats crushed the Cowboys 48-0 last year. This K-State offense is again loaded and will again put up a huge number. They enter the game averaging 39.5 points on the strength of 482.5 yards of offense per game. The Cowboys aren't about to get blanked again. They never have since. They scored 27 (34-27 loss) at Iowa State last game, the third time in their past four games that they've scored more than 26 points. Wildcats may not get 48 but they should get close to their average. The Cowboys gave up 34 to the Cyclones (and 33 to South Alabama before that) and the Wildcats are far more potent. With the Cowboys chipping in another 20+, this final score finishes over the total. *Big 12 TOW

The Bears defense hasn't been good. Everyone knows that. The oddsmakers certainly do. Chicago's defensive struggles have rewarded us with an extra high total. Last year, these same teams played each other and the total was only 38.5. Remember how that game played out? It was a 12-7 final! Scoreless after the first quarter and 3-0 at halftime. Lots of kicking and poor red zone efficiency. Both teams ran the ball a lot. With both teams eager to clean up their defensive deficiencies, Thursday's game will take on a similar look and feel. Plenty of running will keep the clock ticking. When all is said and done, the final score will stay under the total. *NFC TOW

I played on the Bearkats to go Over last week's low total. One of the easier winners of my season. They had been really struggling to score and they were up against what had been an excellent Jacksonville State defense. The Sam Houston State offense came to life and made Jacksonville State's defense look decidedly ordinary. They finished with 435 yards of offense, 299 through the air and 28 points. Of course, they also gave up 35 points, after giving up 38 in their previous game. Now the Bearkats face Liberty which has scored 34, 33, 55 and 38. Averaging 40 points, the Flames rank #13 in the nation for scoring. Their 501 yards per game ranks in the top 10. They may easily go over this low number themselves. They won't need to though. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. Sam Houston State will score. With both teams doing so, this one finishes over the low total. *CUSA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Neither of these teams has run the ball as effectively, or as regularly, as they'd like to. It's early though and we've still had a limited sample size. Its hard to run the ball when getting blown out. These are still a pair of clubs who want to run the ball and this should be a more competitive game. Saquon Barkley sounds doubtfut but the Giants still want to pound the rock. These teams combined for 40 last October, the Seahawks winning 27-13 at home. A look at the boxscore shows that yards did not come easily. The Giants had only 14 first downs and 225 total yards of offense. Seattle had 19 first downs and 277 total yards. That game fell below the total and this line is even higher. Go with the Under. *Total of Week.

The total is low for a reason. San Diego State is always tough defensively. Air Force has one of the most talented defenses in the country this year. That elite defense is typically on display when the Aztecs and Falcons get together. The last three meetings have gotten progressively lower-scoring with final scores of 21-17 in 2018, 20-14 in 2021 and 13-3 last year. The Aztecs had eight first downs and one rushing yard last year! (AF had 14 first downs and 14 passing yards.) Most of the same Falcon defenders are back from last year and the Aztecs will again have trouble moving the ball. Look for another defensive battle. *MWC TOY

This very low total says a lot about these teams. They don't possess the type of offenses that keep defensive coordinators up at night. They're still good to get over this low number though. The Gamecocks have scored 16 or more points in all four games and they're averaging just shy of 26 per game. The Bearkats have struggled to score but that's due to who and where they've been playing. Their three opponents were Houston, BYU and Air Force. A home game against Jacksonville State provides a much easier opportunity to move the ball and score points. They'll take advantage, as will their guests. Go with the Over! *CUSA TOY

Will Burrow play? My hunch is that he will. Either way, I still really like the under. Even with Burrow, the Cincinnati offense has been a mess. The Bengals rank dead last in the league, in terms of both points per game (13.5) and total yards. Fixing the problems against the Aaron Donald and the Rams won't be easy. (Remember the SB?) The Rams rank #6 in terms of yards allowed per game. The Bengals are better defensively than they've shown. Let's not forget that they allowed only 16.7 ppg last year. Only Dallas (16.5) allowed less. Points won't come easily for either team. Go with the Under! *MNF Total Of The Month

It's not a secret that the Falcons are going to feature a lot of running plays. They did so last year and they're doing so again this season. Running the ball with regularity keeps the clock moving. While the Falcons rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game, the Lions rank in the Top 10. Atlanta is running 35.5 times per game. Detroit is doing so 30.5 times. So, it's safe to assume that this game is going to see a lot of rushing. The Lions are off a high-scoring game. That reminded many of their previously poor defense and helped in providing a high total. Remember, that the Lions' opener saw them hold KC to only 20 points, a 21-20 final. This is actually a much improved defense from last year. The Falcons defense is playing well. Atlanta has allowed an average of only 17 ppg. Since last year, the Falcons have allowed 24 or fewer points in nine straight games. None of their last eight games have reached the 50 point mark and six of those finished with less than 40. This game will be low-scoring. *Sept. Total Of The Month

I set this O/U line in the low 60s. Washington has the potential to go over this number by itself. I'm not joking. The Huskies scored 56 against Boise State and they've gone over 40 in every game. They're averaging an impressive 614.7 yards of offense per game. The Huskies won't need to go over by themselves though, as Cal will contribute. The Bears scored 31 last week and they scored 58 in their only road game. They're averaging 437+ ypg. Expect some "end of the summer" fireworks, as this turns into a Saturday evening shootout! *total of week

Two teams that have yet to play to an over collide here on Saturday afternoon, but I think that the offensive floodgates will finally open up here in Week 3.

Iowa State lost 20-13 to Iowa last week, with Rocco Becht finishing with 203 yards and a TD. The Cyclones only allowed 21.2 PPG, last year, but they also won this exact game by a score of 43-10 at home over Ohio last years.

I foresee a similar final combined score here as well.

Ohio is 2-1 after holding on for a 17-10 win at FAU last weekend. The Bobcats offense was ranked in the Top 50 in 2022 with 29.7 PPG. They especially excelled at home, averaging 40 PPG at Peden Stadium. They did score 27 points in their first home game and I think they'll exceed that here.

This number is a little low, the play is the over.

Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done.

If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes.  The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me  this week.  I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under.

The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB.  Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week.  Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week.  The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week.  Take Sunday's game to go under the total!

Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. 

The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. 

Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. 

The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. 

The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* 

With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. 

That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. 

Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. 

LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense.

Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8*

I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season. 

Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.

Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though. 

As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency.

Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10*

Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.

This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim. 

The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard. 

On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. 

Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10*

This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. 

The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there.

But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. 

I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call.

The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10*

These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.

BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.

Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games. 

The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks! 

BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* 

It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. 

Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. 

Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. 

That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. 

Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10*

The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense.  Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs.  They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games.
The Bears' offense is best in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry.  They run the most often in the league, and have Fields, who is not the best option as a passer, but has the best QB wheels in the game.  That said, the Bears have been throwing the ball more lately, whether out of choice or necessity.  On defense it is a different story.  The Bears are poor vs the run, while somewhat better against the pass.  They don't blitz or pressure passers much, but have handled rushing QBs like Hurts well.  The Bears have not been able to control the game the way the Commanders did against the Eagles, but they have managed to put up points against everyone else they've played recently other than the Jets.
The Eagles are averaging 41 points over their last three games, but do give up points, 20 on average.  Fields and the Bears rush success will keep this game from being a blow-out, But I'm betting Philly will continue to rack up the points.  Take Sunday's game to go over.

The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!)

The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season.

Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under.

The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week.  Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense.  The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'.  They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass.  The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week.
I expect a cautious approach from Purdy and the 49ers offense on Sunday, possibly running the ball more than they have lately.  The Bucs' defense is just behind the 49ers in points given up, and 4th in sacks. As much attention as the QBs have received this week, Sunday's game is much more likely a battle between a pair of top defenses.  Take the total to go under.

The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games.

Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles.

Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under.

The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?”

The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over.

Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.

Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary. 

Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.

USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). 

Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season.  The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5.  Play the Under. 10*

Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.

Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.

There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.

This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under.

In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10*

The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go.  They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately.  They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week.  The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack.  While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB.  The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today.  Take this game to go under.

The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team.  A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time.  Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense.  The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier.  They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures.  The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage.  I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday.
There are issues with the Vikings defense as well.  They struggle to defend in the red zone, and are  a miserable 29th in yards and passing yards allowed, with a whopping 486/311 yards against last week.  Prescott has much to atone for after 2 picks last week, but the Cowboys' pass offense has improved since his return.  The Cowboys are also 8th in rushing yards and improving, and may have both RBs in action this week.  The Vikings gave up 175 yards rushing last week, along with their pass defense  woes. This game is too close to pick an outright winner, but I am confident in the total. Sunday's match-up will not be a defensive gem.  Take the total to go over.

Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). 

Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here

The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). 

The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. 

Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* 

The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. 

Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. 

Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10*

The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards.  It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats.  The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was  terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season.  Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns.  Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans.
The Giants offense is very tough to get off the field at the best of times but should be able to move the ball successfully on the ground against the Texans.  Their defense is tough in the red zone and limits 3rd down conversions.  Both these teams struggle to put up points at the best of times.  Sunday could be a very slow march of a game.  Take the total to go under.

Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.

Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight. 

Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo.

The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10*

This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass. 

These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet. 

UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG. 

UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. 

UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8*

This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams.

The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year.

But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them.

Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. 

But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. 

Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. 

All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot. 

Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.

What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.

Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio.

Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10*

Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them.

Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. 

Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. 

While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. 

So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10*

A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields.  Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date.  It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks.
The Patriots have put up points on offense, but have yet to face a good defense this season.  They have a pair of very good running backs, a top 5 O line and a middling pass attack under either QB. They may have some success in running against the Bears, but they will not have an easy time moving the ball in the air.  The Patriots have been good at staying on the field to date.  We'll see if that continues in week seven.  Both teams have been tough to put up points against, and I think that will continue on Monday.  Both teams will also run the ball; the Bears because they don't have a pass attack, and the Patriots to avoid Chicago's strength.
I don't see this game as the sure thing the odds would suggest.  Look for a slow game, on the ground, and a lower final score.  Go with the Bears and Patriots to go under.

Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven.  The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB.  The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos.  The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games.  Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed.   The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer.  It could be a tough game for him.  The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower.  Take the under on Sunday. 9*!

Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game.

UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game.

But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. 

Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye.

Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8*

Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games.

Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! 

The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities.

LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. 

LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8*

The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation.

The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here.

In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. 

Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. 

Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. 

Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8*

It has been a wild season for Appalachian State, who has won on a Hail Mary (Troy) and upset Texas A&M in College Station. But they’ve also come up just short after a wild fourth quarter vs. North Carolina and blew a 28-3 lead to James Madison. But fair to say the Mountaineers’ nadir came two Saturdays ago when they were upset at Texas State.

ASU was a 19-point favorite heading into San Marcos, but lost 36-24 with a head-scratching performance that saw them down by as many as 27 at one point. A pick-six by Texas State early in the second half all but sealed the result there. 

Despite outgaining Texas State, it ended up being App State’s second-lowest scoring game of the year. This is an offense that is averaging 35.2 points/game overall and 42.5 at home. I don’t think they’ll have any problems scoring on Georgia State tonight.

Georgia State began the year 0-4 with three of the losses coming at home. But the Pathers have turned it around with back to back wins, beating Army 31-14 and rival Georgia Southern 41-33. Since the opener against South Carolina, they’ve scored an average of 33 points/game.

The Over is a combined 7-5 for these teams in 2022 and has hit in three of the last four meetings. All three Overs saw 61 or more total points scored. Both these teams run the ball well and neither is particularly great defensively. I think this number is too low. Take the Over

The Colts and Jaguars managed just 18 points combined on offense in Week Five. The good news is that the defenses allowed a total of just 21. The Colts are the worst team in points scored in the NFL. They are 27th in rushing yards and that was with Taylor playing in half the games. Now with two running backs out and a strong Jags’ run defense (6th in rushing yards, and 4th in yards/carry), the Colts will be relying on Ryan and the passing offense for points and yards. Ryan has been sacked at a 10% rate, has given up far too many interceptions, and the Colts are 31st in the league in fumbles. Ryan also faces a Jaguars’ pass defense that has limited opposing QBs to a 74 passer rating.

The Jags’ semi-rookie quarterback has had a couple of solid performances, but the last two were substandard. He threw for a year-high 286 yards, but poor pass completion % and untimely picks limited his effectiveness. He can’t blame QB pressure, as there really wasn’t much from the Texans. There will be a lot more trouble from the Colts’ defense in Week Six. The Jaguars were absolutely hopeless in the red zone last week.

The Jags’ run game has shown steady improvement and is now a legitimate two pronged threat, however they face a tough Colts’ run defense that is fourth in yards given up and second in yards/attempt. Two strong defenses, key injuries on both sides and lots of question marks in both offenses sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. Take the Jaguars and the Colts to go under on Sunday.

The 1-3 Saints face the 2-2 Seahawks in new Orleans on Sunday. The Seahawks put up a whopping 48 points against Detroit, but gave back almost as many on defense. Geno Smith is the darling of Seattle , with comparisons to Wilson in his prime. He is a surprising 3rd in passer rating for the season, has been remarkably accurate, and appears to be settling in as a solid option. He has a good running back in Penny, terrific targets, and has had time to operate. The Seahawks are 5th in sacks allowed. New Orleans doesn’t blitz frequently, and are not strong in pressuring QBs, just 23rd in sacks to date. They gave up 263 yards to Cousins last week, but otherwise have limited teams in passing yards. They are just 20th in rushing yards allowed. They have not proved to be as dominant a defense as might have been expected to date.

Dalton was fine last week against a bottom-third Vikings defense. Kamara should be back with Ingram this week. The Saints managed 25 (nearly 28) points vs the Vikings, and have a great opportunity to score more against a highly suspect Seahawks defense. Seattle is in the bottom third in most of the league’s defensive categories, including points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, and makes most passers look like stars.

Both teams should move the ball well, and while the Seahawks scoring another 48 against the Saints is unlikely, New Orleans has an opportunity to set a season high for points against Seattle this week. Take this game to go over.

So depending on what your closing number was for Michigan-UConn (either 58.5 or 59), the 4th ranked Wolverines are either 4-0-1 to the Under or 4-1. They won that UConn game 59-0. Each of Michigan’s first four games saw at least 58 total points scored. Then they played Iowa last week and it was 27-14.

So save for Iowa, this number is right in line with how previous Michigan games have ended up. The thing is, the Wolverines have played some terrible offenses thus far. Maryland would be the exception and they put up 27 on Jim Harbaugh’s defense. 

While I don’t think Indiana is going to challenge Michigan for an outright upset, I do see the Hoosiers putting up a decent number of points. This is because they play at the fastest tempo in the entire country, running a play every 17.5 seconds. Additionally, IU throws it at one of the highest rates in the country. As they are likely to be trailing most of this game, there’s no doubt QB Bazelak will be airing it out Saturday.

Michigan is scoring 45.4 points/game and should have no problem moving the ball against the Indiana defense, which has allowed 110 points in the last three games. JJ McCarthy is looking good at QB in Ann Arbor and even against Iowa’s good defense, the Wolverines averaged five yards/play.

Looking at the spread, all we need is three touchdowns from Indiana in this game to likely hit the Over. They have scored 21 or more in every game this year. Michigan’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. Take the Over. 10* 

This UNLV-San Jose State matchup on Friday night should turn into a shootout, even with the Rebels down two of their top three receivers.

Just five weeks into the season, UNLV has doubled its win total from the previous two years. Their best way to attack the San Jose State defense in this one would be via the run as the Spartans allow 152 yards/game on the ground, 80th in the country. One of SJSU’s best defenders, Noah Wright, left last week’s game on a stretcher. So UNLV shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball in this one.

So far the Rebels are putting up an average of 37.8 points/game. They’ve scored at least 31 on everyone besides California.

But SJSU’s offense has come around with 67 points in wins over Western Michigan and Wyoming the last two games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been quite effective for the Spartans, throwing for more than 1,000 yards so far and adding another 180 on the ground. Last week, New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick was able to run for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Cordeiro should have a big game.

But UNLV QB Brumfield is pretty good too. This could easily be a game where both teams score 30-plus points. The Over is 15-1 in the Rebels’ last 16 Friday games and cashed last week against New Mexico. The offenses are better than the defenses in this one, so let’s play accordingly. 10*

This game was supposed to be played last Saturday, then Sunday, but Hurricane Ian pushed it back to Wednesday night. SMU is 2-2 after suffering two straight losses while UCF is 3-1 after a win over Georgia Tech. Both offenses are potent in their own ways (SMU - passing, UCF - rushing), but I believe we’re in for a surprisingly “low-scoring” game tonight. By “low-scoring,” I mean Under is the play here.

UCF only racked up 333 total yards against a bad Georgia Tech team in its last game. Take away a blocked punt return and the Golden Knights scored just one touchdown in the game. They’ll mainly look to run the ball in this game, which means the clock is going to keep moving and that’s friendly to the Under cashing.

Now SMU is a pass-heavy offense. But they are likely to encounter some resistance from a UCF defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in any contest this year. The Golden Knights are giving up just 13.5 points/game. I do expect them to allow a season-high tonight, but not enough where this game goes Over.

Only one of UCF’s four games so far would have eclipsed tonight’s total and that was the opener vs. FCS South Carolina State where the Knights hung 56 on the board themselves. We won’t see that kind of offensive effort from them here, trust me. Against their two toughest foes - Louisville and Georgia Tech - the offense has produced just three total offensive touchdowns. This is the highest O/U line for any UCF game this season. 

Similarly, only one of SMU’s previous four games would have made it past tonight’s O/U line. That was the last one, against TCU, and we all saw (against Oklahoma) how good the Horned Frogs offense is. Play the Under. 10*

MNF week 4 brings us the next installment in the Rams/49ers’ rivalry. So what has the home team done well to date? Sterling defense in all three games; they’ve limited points and yards, have a great pass defense, and solid run defense. The 49ers are also very good in time of possession. One caveat; they have lost Trent Williams for this week. Their rush offense has been solid as well, although it did stumble vs Denver. The big question on pass defense, is how much can Jimmy G improve after a terrible effort against a very tough Broncos pass defense. The Rams’ defense has been solid against the run but has given up plenty of pass yards and is just average in Qb pressures. Will Garoppolo break out in Week 4? I don’t see it, although he does have a fine record against the Rams.

We know what Stafford is capable of, but he has only had middling results so far, including 5 interceptions. He had a good effort against the Cardinals last week, but faces a much tougher defensive beast on Monday. Stafford and the Rams’ 30th ranked run game were stymied by the Bills’ defense, which is similar in make-up to the 49ers’. My conclusion: neither team gets very many points for very different reasons. Take the Under on Monday.

.

Here’s an interesting game in Conference USA as last year’s conference champs (UTSA) are laying a small number to a team that just blew out Miami FL on the road last week, Middle Tennessee. 

Going back to last season, UTSA has seen eight straight games go Over the total. But I’m thinking differently here. The number has been bet up and is now higher than any of the Roadrunners’ previous three games vs. FBS foes this season. Note they had two games go to overtime, one of which (37-35 loss to Houston) would not have gone Over without the extra time.

Middle Tennessee just put up 500 yards of offense in Coral Gables and there was really nothing misleading about that 45-31 upset last week where they came in as 25.5-point underdogs. But remember this is the same Blue Raiders team that scored just 7 points in the season opener vs. James Madison with only 119 total yards.

The 408 passing yards we saw from MTSU quarterback Chase Cunningham last week seems like an anomaly. He had not thrown for more than 266 in any of the first three games, all of which were against lesser competition. And it’s not like the Blue Raiders ran the ball well in any of those games. They’ve averaged only 75 yards rushing in the three FBS games.

The UTSA offense will have to be fearful of a Middle Tennessee’s defense that has forced nine turnovers in the last three games. UTSA is long overdue for the Under to hit, especially with this being a higher number than all but one of those last eight games. 10*

Houston is one of just eight FBS teams to have played four games and have all of them go Over the total. But, if you were an Over bettor in any of those four games, you got a little lucky. The opener vs. UTSA went to triple overtime. The game at Texas Tech went to double overtime. They let Kansas start two eventual TD drives inside the 25-yard line. There was a late fumble return for a TD against Rice.

Now in the case of the last two games, the Over would have still hit even without the randomness. But certainly a case can be made that Houston games shouldn’t be this high-scoring. I think we’re likely to see the scoring come to an abrupt halt this week when the Cougars host Tulane, a team that has yet to allow more than 336 yards in a game all season. The Green Wave defense gives up just 11.8 points/game! 

Tulane has certainly had an interesting last two weeks. They upset Kansas State on the road but then fell at home to Southern Miss. Neither game was high-scoring with the Green Wave offense averaging just 20.5 points. 

They did allow an interception return for a TD last week, which was the difference in the game. So really, Tulane’s defense has only given up 40 points in four games.

There seems to be a lot wrong with Houston at the moment, particularly along the offensive line, and I don’t see that being fixed against this great Tulane defense which is fourth in the nation against the pass. Time for the Cougars to go Under. 9*

Utah State is sitting at 0-4 ATS and 4-0 to the Under after four games. Obviously, they will not fail to cover AND go Under in every game this season. Which of these streaks are more likely to end Thursday night against BYU? I think it’s the Under streak. BYU should score a ton tonight, but look for Utah State to get their “fair share” as well.

BYU is a big favorite here, for good reason. The #19 ranked Cougars did get blown out in Oregon two weeks ago, but also hold a Top 25 win against Baylor here in Provo. Last week marked the second time in four games that the offense gained over 500 total yards. QB Hall, looking very much like a NFL prospect, has topped 300 yards passing in two straight games and is completing 71.4% of his passes this season. 

The Utah State defense has given up an average of 41.3 points the last three games. While one of those came against Alabama, the other two opponents were Weber State and UNLV and both of those teams scored 34. I would not be surprised if BYU scored 40 in this game.

But Utah State should move the ball as well.  The Aggies had 421 yards last week against UNLV,  but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. That was after turning it over four times the previous week. QB Logan Bonner was good last year, setting program records with 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns. So I’m a little perplexed as to why he’s struggled so much (especially with turnovers) these first four weeks. 

The BYU defense has given up 20 or more in every game this season. I’ve got USU eclipsing that number Thursday night. This number has come down, but I’m liking the value on the Over, which has hit each of the last four times BYU has been off an ATS loss (did not cover -21.5 vs. Wyoming last week). 10*

The current 40.5-point spread for this game, if it holds, would be the largest for any SEC game going back to 1996. I have no interest in playing the spread, but the total did jump out to me.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 to the Over this year, starting with a 63-10 win over Hawaii. From there, the Commodores have beaten Elon 42-31, lost to Wake Forest 45-25 and then bounced back last week with a 38-28 come from behind win over Northern Illinois.

The Commies are putting up 42.0 points/game. Tonight in Tuscaloosa, they won’t even put up half that number.

The Alabama defense that Vandy is running into Saturday has allowed just 26 points - total - in three games and 19 of that came from Texas, a game that was played in Austin. 

The last two times these teams met, Vandy was shut out both times. Granted, those games were played in 2011 and 2017, but it’s not like the talent discrepancy has gotten any closer. Look for the Crimson Tide to completely shut down the Vanderbilt offense and not hang 50+ themselves. Nick Saban and the coaching staff, no matter what they say publicly, care far more about next week’s game at Arkansas. 10*

Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have been involved in a game that went Over the total, but shouldn’t have.

Two weeks ago Houston faced Texas Tech. The game went to overtime tied 20-20. That was after Texas Tech kicked the game-tying FG with three seconds left. From there, both offenses got on track and it ended up being a 33-30 final (Houston lost), just clearing the O/U line of 62.5. 

Last week, Rice upset Louisiana 33-21 as an 11.5 point home underdog. The total closed at 52. If not for an early pick-six by Louisiana, that game would not have gone Over. Rice’s defense played shockingly well, holding the Ragin Cajuns to 175 total yards and just nine first downs. One of the other Louisiana touchdowns came about after a turnover that set them up inside the red zone.

The Owls offense had a lot of big plays in that game and I do not think they’ll be able to hit those with such great frequency this week. Also, Houston shouldn’t have given up 48 points last week to Kansas. Two of the Jayhawks’ touchdown drives began inside the UH 25-yard line.

Even though the Over is a combined 6-0 for these two squads in 2022, the market is expecting the opposite result this week. So am I. Even with the number coming down several points, Under is the play here. 10* 

It’s back to back Friday night games for Air Force, who lost outright last week, on the road to Wyoming by a score of 17-14. As I did note in my analysis for that game, the Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack had been stymied in the past by Wyoming. It was “deja vu all over again” as AF ran for just 171 yards on 40 attempts in Laramie where they are now 0-4 L4 visits.

This week’s opponent, Nevada, has also played AF “tough” in the past as well. While the Falcons have the 4-2 SU edge as Mt West rivals, the last five meetings have all been one-score games with four of those decided by three points or less. Last year’s game went to OT with Air Force winning 41-39.

I think that after the debacle against Wyoming last week, the Air Force offense gets back on track here. Let’s not forget that the Falcons scored 89 points in their first two games of the season or that they have gone for 40+ in five of those last six games against Nevada.

And while Nevada has been a tough opponent for AF in the past, the Wolf Pack aren’t very good this year. The defense is young and most of the players on the field don’t have much experience defending the triple option. This is a Nevada defense that gave up 55 points to Incarnate Word, a FCS school, two weeks ago. 

With a low total and me looking for AF to put a lot of points on the board, I’m looking for this game to go Over. Nevada being shut out last week at Iowa was a case of facing a great defense. In their previous two games, the Wolf Pack had scored 79 points. I’d much rather bet the Over than lay the points in this game. The O/U line has been bet down and I’m seeing value at the current number. 10*

Coastal Carolina is 3-0, but it’s a shaky 3-0 as they barely escaped both Gardner-Webb and Buffalo. Even though QB Grayson McCall is still here and the offense is averaging 35.7 points/game, it has been nowhere near as efficient as the last two seasons. The Chanticleers are operating at a pretty slow tempo and have just five passing plays that have gone for more than 30 yards.

Georgia State is 0-3, but this is probably the best team in America without a win. Lots of miscues have cost them games against South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte. In the first two, the Panthers were underdogs, so you can make the case they weren’t expected to win. But against Charlotte, they were favored by almost three touchdowns. 

In the loss to South Carolina, Georgia State had two special teams touchdowns go against them. Both were blocked punts. North Carolina is team that put up 60+ points against Appalachian State, so holding them to “just 35” isn’t all that bad for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t know what happened last week vs. Charlotte, other than it was a sandwich spot between two games against Power 5 opponents and this, the Sun Belt opener. But still, Georgia State should not have lost last week.

There was also a fumble return for a TD by Charlotte. So that’s three non-offensive TD’s allowed by Georgia State in three games. I’ll make the case then that the defensive numbers are not as bad as they look. 

Coastal Carolina is not running the ball as effectively as they have in years past. This is the first road game for the Chanticleers and I expect the offense to struggle. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. Georgia State is 4-1 to the Under its last five home games. Play the Under. 10*

Looking the Patriots and Steelers in week one, there was no joy to be seen, other than the Steelers’ pass defense. They were full marks for a 7 sack, 5 turnover day. And it wasn’t just Watt who excelled, although he will be sorely missed on Sunday. The Patriots’ run defense was also effective, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards and 2.8 yds a carry. Their pass defense did manage 3 sacks.

Neither quarterback impressed at all. Jones’ accuracy was ok but he also missed relievers badly at very critical moments. He was sacked twice and threw 1 interception. Trubinsky shouldn’t even attempt a long game. He wasn’t intercepted because he consistently overthrew his receivers, had just a 55 % completion rate and looked uncomfortable under pressure. He will likely see more pressure on Sunday.

The two teams were 26th and 27th in total yards on offense last week, with a negligible and unsuccessful running game. Both teams finished under 80 total yards rushing and an average of 3.5 and 3.4 yds per carry.

Where are the points going to come from on Sunday? New England only managed 7 in week one, and the Steelers’ defense accounted for most of the Steelers’ field position and 7 of their points. The answer about points is they aren’t coming, or not very many of them. Take the Patriots and Steelers to go under.

The Ravens won easily last week, but it wasn’t the most inspiring of wins. While they limited the Jets’ running game, they allowed Flacco a ton of passing yards. They did sack him three times and pressured him frequently. On offense they took advantage of good field position. Jackson threw for 3 touchdowns, but just 211 yards. He was sacked twice. The Ravens rushed for just 63 yards, and 3 yds per carry with minimal yards from Jackson himself.

The Dolphins rolled over the Patriots, with a fine first outing from Tua and his top two receivers. It was all in the air, as the Dolphins ran for just 78 yards, no TDs and five first downs. The defense pretty well shut down the Patriots’ attack allowing just 270 total yards and 1 TD.

The Dolphins love to blitz and thoroughly disrupted the Ravens’ offense in their meeting last year. Expect more of the same tactic until it is proven unsuccessful. Obviously the Ravens have had lots of time to develop a better strategy, but Jackson can expect plenty of pressure this week.

The Dolphins are expected to be a very good defensive team this year. They won’t have to worry about much of a run game from Miami considering last week’s performance. They should pressure Tua much more than he was last week, although the number of yards given up to Flacco is disconcerting. The Dolphins have the injury bug with their offensive line., making the Ravens’ job slightly easier.

It is hard to pick a clear victor so I am looking to the total. This could be more of a defensive battle than might be expected. Take the total to go under. 9*!

The Over is 2-0 for Houston football this season with an average of 67.5 points scored in the two games. But this is highly misleading. There have been five overtimes in the two games, a 37-35 win at UTSA and a 33-30 loss at Texas Tech.

This week the Cougars open the home schedule against a Kansas team that is off a couple of strong offensive showings. Can’t remember the last time the Jayhawks have posted back to back 50+ point efforts, but that’s the situation here. Again though, it’s a little misleading. 

It was a very rare two touchdowns in OT from Kansas last week. After they scored to take the 49-42 lead, they returned an INT for a TD to make it 55. That was after WVU forced OT with a TD in the final minute of regulation.

The Houston-Texas Tech game probably shouldn’t have gone to OT either. The Cougars returned an INT for a TD in the fourth quarter, then each team made a FG in the final minute of regulation.

With both teams coming off games that ended up “misleadingly” high-scoring, I’ll back the Under here. Even with five overtimes, the Houston offense is only averaging 350 yards per game. The Kansas offense certainly won’t continue putting up the kinds of numbers we’ve seen in the first two games. 10*

We’ve got a Top 25 matchup in Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon with the 17th ranked Panthers hosting #24 Tennessee. Despite Pitt being at home and the higher ranked team, they are the underdog here. The bloom really came off their rose with less than stellar showing against West Virginia in the opener. It was a 31-24 win, but the Panthers needed a late pick-six and did not cover the spread.

Tennessee did cover the spread in its first game, easily defeating Ball State by a score of 59-10. The Volunteers had 38 points by halftime and 52 by the end of the third quarter. Eight different receivers caught a pass in the first half. With last year’s top rusher Jabari Smith back and four returning offensive linemen, the Vols will be able to run the ball effectively here as well.

Cause for concern if you’re a Pitt fan - not only did Tennessee average more than five yards/carry last season and West Virginia just went for 5.6 yards/carry. 

No team in America played “faster” than Tennessee did last year. Under Josh Heupel, they averaged 3.12 plays per minute! This is what I like to see when betting the Over.

No one thinks Kedon Slovis is going to be able to “replace” Kenny Pickett at Pitt, but the USC transfer threw for 300 yards against WVU. Over the course of the game, the Panthers’ offense started playing faster as well.  This game should be a shootout! 9*

South Carolina needed TWO blocked punt returns for touchdowns to get to 35 points last week against Georgia State. But the Gamecocks’ offense should be on full display this week at Arkansas, who could be down two defensive starters.

Like South Carolina, the Razorbacks won their season opener. But in defeating Cincinnati 31-24 as a 6.5-point favorites, Arkansas gave up plenty of yards (438) and honestly was fortunate not to allow more points. Six different times, the Bearcats offense crossed midfield only to come up empty. They also started a drive inside the Arkansas’ five-yard line and wound up settling for a field goal. 

But I was impressed with the Arkansas’ offense, specifically QB Jefferson, who accounted for four touchdowns last Saturday. He put up 9.3 yards per attempt last season, so a strong showing was really not that much of a surprise. Also, the Arkansas’ rushing attack seems like it won’t skip a beat, despite Trelon Smith leaving.

South Carolina’s defense was pretty bad at stopping the run in 2021 and with only one starter back along the defensive line, they figure to struggle to stop Arkansas from moving the chains.

But as I stated at the top, look for a better showing from the SC offense in this game. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler has a great set of skill position players surrounding him. Look for the Gamecocks to take advantage of a possibly depleted Arkansas secondary. 10*

Two years ago, Clemson hung 73 points on Georgia Tech in what was utter humiliation for the Yellow Jackets. But last year, the game ended just 14-8 in Clemson’s favor. That was an early sign that it might be a “down year” for Dabo’s Tigers, who lost three of their first seven games. 

But Clemson ended 2021 on a 6-0 run and now seems primed to have a bounce back season. The defense was NOT the problem last season (only 14.8 points/game allowed) and should be one of the very best in the country for ‘22. 

Meanwhile, it’s been a pretty ugly three seasons for Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech. Especially when facing Clemson. Transitioning away from the triple option (to a spread offense) has not gone all that well in Atlanta. Incredibly, the Yellow Jackets have scored a combined 29 points in the last three meetings with Clemson. I’m not expecting them to score a ton tonight either.

Therefore, I’ll ride with the Under here. Georgia Tech’s offensive line is young and two of the top three receivers from last year are gone. I don’t see them doing well against what is perhaps the nation’s best offensive line.

Clemson’s offense wasn’t that great last year and I don’t see them scoring 40+ points tonight. Play the Under. 

The Brian Kelly era gets underway at LSU Sunday night against Florida State. While this is the Tigers’ first game of the season, FSU played last week and won 47-7 over Duquesne. I wouldn’t put much stock in that victory though as it came against a FCS team. Mike Norvell, entering his fourth year at Tallahassee, still has a lot of work to do. 

This game is in New Orleans, so that’s an edge to LSU, even though they’d prefer it being in Baton Rouge. Kelly has won 40 straight games when favored. That includes a 41-38 win over Florida State in the opening game last season, when Kelly was still at Notre Dame.

How much better LSU will be in 2022 remains to be seen. But we know they will be healthier. Their 74 starts lost to injury last season were the most in the entire country. Jayden Daniels, one of 19 transfers that Kelly brought in, is expected to be the starting QB tonight. But my eyes are more focused on the Tigers defense, which should be a lot better this year. 

Yes, it was “just a FCS opponent.” But FSU giving only seven points was encouraging. The Seminoles have eight starters back on defense this year and I think they’ll do a good job here against an opponent breaking in a new starting quarterback.

The Under is 9-4 in Florida State’s past 13 games and that’s the way I see this one going.

Liberty has a had a couple of great season but QB Maik Willis is gone and could be a NFL starter (for the Titans) by the end of the year. For Liberty, the loss of Willis means the offense is set to take a step back in 2022.

In addition to having to replace its starting QB, the Flames are further due to regress because even with Willis they overachieved. Last year they were 11th in finishing drives but only 40th in success rate. I think you’ll see the Flames stall out more, or having to settle for field goals. 

Seven defensive starters and the top 10 tacklers are back for Southern Miss.  So this unit should be much improved. At least that’s the hope in Hattiesburg as the Golden Eagles move to the Sun Belt Conference this season after going 3-9 in 2021 (won their last two games).

But the USM offense, even with RB Frank Gore, is a major question mark. It was held below 20 points nine times in 2021. 

A x-factor in this game is that the new Southern Miss offensive coordinator previously served as Liberty’s offensive line coach. So he’ll bring over a familiarity with the opponent. This will be nothing like the last time these teams met (2020), a 56-35 Liberty win. 10*

Both Duke and Temple went 3-9 last season and there have been coaching changes for the 2022 season. 

David Cutcliffe retired after 13 seasons at Duke and was replaced by former A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Elko. His task is a challenging one - rebuild a Blue Devils’ defense that was positively awful last season, giving up 518 yards and over 40 points per game.

Over on the Temple sideline, former Texas run game coordinator Stan Drayton is the new man for the job. Expect a renewed focus on the rushing attack from the Owls, which probably isn’t a bad idea considering QB D’Wan Mathis is pretty inconsistent and completed just 59% of his passes last season. At one point, it appeared that Mathis was set to transfer out of the program.

I do expect Duke’s defense to improve under Elko, if for no other reason that it can’t get any worse. Temple doesn’t really have the kind of offense to take advantage anyway. There were nine games last season where the Owls scored 14 points or less.

Don’t look for Duke’s offense to do much of anything. The Blue Devils averaged only 22.8 points a year ago and have lost their starting QB, top RB and top WR. Take the Under here.

I like the Wyoming-Illinois opener to go Over the total. This is a very low total by 2022 College Football standards. 

Wyoming’s offense was hard to get a read on last year. There were six games where they didn’t score 20 points. But there were also four where they scored 44 or more. What we know heading into this season is that the Cowboys like to run the ball. They averaged the 16th most yards per carry in all of CFB last year.

Titus Swen will be the lead RB this year and should move the sticks against an Illini defense that won’t be able to match last year’s surprising numbers. But the problem for Wyoming will be their own defense, which lost a ton of talent on the backend, including all four starters in the secondary and both linebackers. 

The Pokes are one of the least experienced teams in the land entering this season and the loss of defensive talent is a big reason for that. Illinois is bringing its top three rushers back from last year, one of which (Chase Brown) averaged 5.9 yards per carry. 10*

Brett Bielema’s new QB is Tommy DeVito, who transferred in from Syracuse. I expect the Illini to be much better on the offensive side in 2020. Love the Over here.

Looking at the Rams/Bengals matchup, with two top QBs and their wide variety of excellent receiving options, it is easy to imagine a high-scoring result. I am not seeing this result, and have held off to get the highest total available. I think this game is going under, and here is why.

The Rams defense has been successful at limiting points (18 avg. L3), rushing yards, and has improved recently in yards allowed in the air. They have limited opposing pass offenses to a short pass game, and have limited pass TDs. They are 7th overall in sacks. Burrow has been largely immune to pass pressure, but he won’t be as free and easy to wander vs the Rams’ formidable pass rush. Will they shut Burrow down? Unlikely. Will they slow him down? Very likely. One need only look back to the Bengals/Titans game when the Titans scored only 19 points with Burrow sacked an astounding 9 times. The Bengals may also be forced into more of a run situation on Sunday, slowing the game down. They have a very viable option in Mixon, but the Rams defense has been outright stingy vs the run.

Stafford may have his hands full as well. The Bengals defense is tough against the run, but has been doing the job against the pass as well. They had four sacks against Mahomes last week and adapted well in the second half to control him effectively. They’ve only given up an average of 19 points a game in their last three games. Their QB pressure stats, other than actual sacks, are actually better than the Rams’. The Rams have essentially abandoned the run lately, banking on Stafford, but a hurried Stafford is not without peril. Could we also see more of a running game from Akers and the Rams as well?

That is my take on total. The over/under line has been pretty static, but hunt for the right number, and take this game to surprise a lot of people and go under.

The Rams face the 49ers for the third time this season, and many reputations rest on the outcome. The two defenses will have a huge impact on this game. Yes, Stafford is on a roll, but the 49ers are tough on quarterbacks, averaging 5 sacks a game in the last three games, are 6th in passing yards allowed this year, and hold opposing Qbs to a rating of 83 over the last three weeks. A rattled Stafford is not nearly the same quarterback. He is not immune to throwing the ball away. Should the Rams look to the running game, it doesn’t get any easier. The 49ers have only allowed 69 rush yards on average in their last three games.

What can we expect from the 49ers’ offense on Sunday? Probably a concentrated effort to run the ball, slowing the game down, and keeping Stafford off the field. It worked for them in their last win against the Rams. Their Qb, Garappolo has not impressed lately, with a QB rating of only 79 in his last three games. The 49ers appear to have more faith in their running game. A note to bear in mind. Their double threat magician Deebo Samuel, terrific lately, may not be 100%.

It would be a mistake to underestimate the Rams’ defense. They are strong against the run; fifth and improving in rush yards/game and rush yards/attempt. They are equally tough on Qbs, holding opposing Qbs to a rating of 71 over the last three games.

The 49ers are a very good road team, and have dominated the Rams for some time. I am not confident in their ability to outscore the Rams, but I do think they will hold the final score down. I am wagering on the total to go under.

Bengals vs Chiefs

It is hard to see this as anything other than a shootout. Mahomes, Burrow and their various stellar targets appear to be at peak form. The Bills, who possess much better defense than the Bengals, could not control Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bengals are 26th in pass yards against, and 8th but sinking badly in rushing yards allowed and sacks. It is hard to imagine them in any way controlling Mahomes and Co. The Bengals beat the Chiefs at their own game 4 weeks ago, and the number of points given up by KC to high-octane pass offenses this year is very high. Burrow takes a lickin’ and still keeps kickin’ every week and one of these days the Bengals lack of an O-line is going to bite them. It may not be this week as KC is only 29th in sacks. I’m looking forward to this game. Who knows, it may even surpass the Bills/Chiefs barn-burner last week. I do think the points will pile up in a big way. Take the over.

The Rams face the Buccaneers for the second time this season, only this time it is for most the marbles. Not that it really matters at this point, but Tampa Bay has been lights out as a home team, and the Rams are a very good on the road this year. With Brady and Stafford at QB, both these teams are going to score points, and while the teams may run the ball, it will be to set up to two very good pass offenses. That said, the Bucs and Rams have good news on the rush offense side. RB Fournette will be healthy for the Bucs and the Rams have Akers back for only the 2nd time this season. Neither pass defense is in the top echelon, although the Rams did shut the Cardinals down effectively last weekend. Brady and Stafford will likely face more pressure than they are used to. The Rams in particular, have been tough on Qbs lately, and it is still not completely clear how injury will affect the Buc’s defensive line. Not to forget that these teams are 1st and 6th in protecting their passer. Stafford has had issues with interceptions, but didn’t throw the ball away at all last week. Brady rarely throws the ball away. I can see both offenses stepping it out this weekend. Weather conditions will be fine. Look for a ton of points scored. Take the Rams and Bucs to go over the total.

The Packers are back from their bye week, rested and at home, but I wonder just how comfortable they are with this weekend’s match-up. The 49ers’ defense is tough and improving of late. In the last 3 weeks; 4+sacks a game, rush yards against average of 75, pass yards against 189, and an average quarterback rating of 78. You get my point. The last time the Packers played a solid defense was against the Browns, with a very close 22-20 win the result. Now throw in serious low temperatures, wind, and possible snow, all elements that would suggest more of a running game. The 49ers are 7th and climbing in rushing yards, with their Deebo/Mitchell combo. The Packers can also run, although not quite as effectively. They just can’t stop the run (31st in rush yards against). Worst case scenario for the Packers is the Giants coming in and running the ball all the cold day long. I am not saying we won’t see any magic from Rodgers, just less of it. If there weren’t injury issues with a couple of 49ers players, this would be a wager on San Francisco. All things considered, I like the total in this game. Take the 49ers and Packers to go under the total.

The Eagles are not going to be scared off their run-focused game plan easily; the Buccaneers’ powerful run defense is not quite what it was last year or even earlier in the season. The Bucs haven’t faced a quarterback who runs as well as Hurts does lately, and the Eagles have the best run offense in the league, with two solid RBs who will figure into the picture. Still, Tampa does not give points up easily. Fifth in the league in points allowed, they do allow passing yards, but not so many points, and do pressure the opposing quarterback very well.

The Eagles have been successful at limiting pass and run yards this year, but between the Eagles’ lack of QB pressure, and the Buc’s very good O-line, Brady will likely be a force to be reckoned with. Throwing into the wind and the rain will likely have some impact on Brady’s game, and the Buccaneers are far less effective moving the football on the ground.

I like the total in this game. The Buccaneers have some key players who are still banged up. The weather conditions suggest a slower than usual game, and possibly more of a running game from the Buccaneers. The Eagles may find points hard to come by on Saturday, and may have a little success limiting Brady. The total seems high in this situation. Take the Eagles and Buccaneers to go under on Sunday.

This “win or done” matchup features two very good quarterbacks and a pair of often unimpressive offenses. The Raiders have been tough to score on lately. Their pass defense has been surprisingly good in their last three games, but they haven’t faced a strong pass-first offense since the Chiefs, who badly mauled them. The Chargers, as good as their offense has been, give up a ton of points, and often to unlikely teams (41 points to Houston). They also struggled against the Chiefs. Both these teams defend poorly in the red zone.

Herbert is the wonder boy these days but he is still relatively inexperienced. It will be interesting to see how he plays in a the Raiders’ loud and hostile stadium in playoff-like conditions. Carr is very much the veteran and at home.

How is this one going to play out? I think Carr and the Raiders will put up points against a weak and regressing Chargers defense. I also think that the Raiders will not be able to handle the ‘Herbert and Ekeler’ duo as easily as their last three opponents. Tough call on the winner, but look for plenty of points. Take the Chargers and Raiders to go over the total.

The  Colts really need this win, and will be all in.  The Jaguars? Who knows? They've played the Colts tough, with an embarrassingly ( for the Colts) long streak of home victories, and with a relatively close game earlier in the season.  There is also their ranking and the #1 draft pick situation to consider. I am sure that the Colts will win this game, but by how much is the question. The Colts don't need to grind the Jaguars into the ground, so playing full out for the full 60 minutes may not be necessary.  The Jaguars don't put up a ton of points, and the Colts' offensive numbers have regressed somewhat.  Where the Colts have improved is that they are tougher to score against.  They are a run-first offense, and it would make no sense to change the game plan for the sake of running up the score.  Of all the options in this game, I am most comfortable with a lower total.  I am wagering the Colts lead comfortably, then shut the Jaguars down.  Take the UNDER today.

The Chiefs meet the Broncos in a very meaningful game for K.C., but not really for Denver.  After limiting opposing teams' offense in the extreme, the Chiefs have given up two high totals in three games, and seen their defensive stats plummet. As much as the Chiefs need a win, this is also their last chance to right the ship on defense before the post season.  The good news is that they face Drew Lock, rather than Burrow or Herbert.

While this is not a really meaningful game for the Broncos other than Lock, it is a home game, so look for some effort.  The Denver defense stumbled last week but has held most teams to under 20 points, or in the case of the Chiefs last time out, 22 points. Their offense has stumbled for more than a week, averaging only 12 points for the last 3 games. 

Both teams appear to be over the worst of covid, touch wood, but the Chiefs are missing their best RB, and the Broncos, their QB and other significant players.  Look for the Chiefs to focus on defense in this game.  Look for a return to the tight defense they showed for much of the year, with the Broncos struggling to put points on the board.  If the Broncos do play all out, they have the potential to slow the Chiefs' potentially explosive offense. I am wagering on the total to go under.

Both the Browns and the Steelers are teetering on the edge of a playoff-less season. Who ever loses on Monday is finished. The Browns are at their healthiest in some time. They have one of the best running backs in the business. The Steelers rank dead last in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt. Browns’ quarterback is playing wounded and it shows in his passing stats. Look for the Browns to deliver a steady diet of Nick Chubb and slow this game down. The Pittsburgh defense excels in sacks, passing yards allowed, and red zone defense, which with a rush-first opponent like the Browns, plays to a low total.

There is a fair bit of hype about this being Roethlisberger’s swansong, but lets face it; he is retiring for a reason. While he is still accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over, his yards per game and yards/attempt have dropped. He is a bit of a sitting duck back there, and has been sacked with regularity this season. The flip side of Big Ben’s retirement is that there are a whole lot of Browns players who would like to make his last home game a memorable one, with a little payback.

Pittsburgh has been running the ball more but they are up against a very stiff Browns run offense. The Browns are very solid against the pass as well, so don’t look for the Steelers, lower than average in points scored per game, to pile up the points. I like the total in this game. Look for a result similar to the Titans/Steelers. Take the under.

Oklahoma State/Notre Dame

Oklahoma State went 11-2. The Cowboys would ultimately go on to lose to Baylor in the Big 12 Title game. Normally OKS is known for its high-octane offense, but they held opponents to just 17 points per game, which ranks seventh in the country. The Cowboys were ranked second in the country on allowed third down conversions, conceding just 25 percent of such instances. They also led the nation in sacks with 55. The offense took a step back this sesaon though, entering averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 50th. QB Spencer Sanders had a pedestrian season, throwing for 2,468 yards, but with a 16:14 TD:INT ratio.

Brian Kelly has already left Notre Dame and several key players have opted out. Marcus Freeman is the new coach. Kyren Williams has left for the NFL. He was the team's leading rusher and had the second most TD's only behidn QB Jack Coan. The Irish rank ninth overall on the defensive end, conceding 18.3 PPG. 

Many new faces, but these defenses are elite. Each ranks in the Top 10. Expect them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 10* BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR.