Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 151 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards destroyed the Browns 38-24 last weekend, their first victory in months. Suffice it to say, I think they'll have a more difficult time moving the ball this afternoon in the frigid Pacific Northwest. Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Kenyan Drake again here though as last weekend he rushed for 137 yards and four TD's vs. the Browns. With San Francisco's loss to Atlanta last weekend (although it managed the slim victory over the Rams), means that Seattle controls its own destiny in the NFC West. QB Russell Wilson has been the beneficiary of a strong run game this year and I expect the home side to control the ball/clock while on offense today as well. The pick: It works great from a situational stand point in my opinion, but also note that the Hawks have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten after scoring 30 points or more in their previous contest, while the Cards have seen the total go under in four of their last five off an upset win as an underdog. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Cards/Hawks. |
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12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 131 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a hard-fought, but ultimatley lower-scoring game between these NFC rivals on Saturday night. The 49ers have a playoff spot locked up, but they're coming off a poor perfomance/loss at home to the Falcons. LA has its back against the wall, needing to win out after it most recently got dominated on the road by the Cowboys. The strength of LA though has not been on the offensive side of the ball this season, with QB Jared Goff taking a major step back, but rather on the defensive end where the unit has allowed 17 points or fewer in six of the last eight games. San Francisco has been unbelievable this year, winning big in New Orleans, but also looking poor at other times. The defense is banged up, but I think that Jimmy Garropolo and company won't try to push the issue here, as they look to sit back and control this one in all three phases. Situationally in my opinion, it definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: But note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in three of four vs. division opponents already this year, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight following a home loss. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Rams/49ers UNDER. |
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State OVER 41 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 288 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Last year CMU was 1-11, but this year they lost to Miami Ohio 26-24 in the MAC Championship game. The Chips were 8-5 and they enter this contest with a balanced offense, ranked 40th in the country in both passing and running. SDSU was 9-3 on the year and finished behind Hawaii in the MWC West. The Aztecs only allow 12.8 PPG, but I think the unit will take a predictable step back here after the long lay off. Clearly CMU is going to be out to push the pace as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone. QB Quinten Dormady is a senior for the CHips and he had 2,148 passing yards with a sharp 14:6 TD:INT. The pick: I'll point out as well that CMU has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as an underdog this year, while SDSU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as a neutal field favorite of seven points or less. This number is a tad low. 10* play on CMU/SDSU OVER. |
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12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 175 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-7 Indianapolis Colts can keep their wild card hopes alive with an improbable upset win today. How will Indy pull that off? Certainly not by trying to keep pace with Drew Brees and the high-flying home side. The Colts have lost four of five, but they'll be laying everything on the line tonight in an effort to pull off the victory. The offense is still without dynamic WR T.Y. Hilton. Indy has to play to its strengths here, with plenty of running and short dump passes by Jacoby Brissett. Of course, the strength of the Colts still lies on the defensive end. The pick: The Saints threw everything they had at the 49ers last week, but New Orleans came up on the short end of a high-scoring shootout. New Orleans' defense was exposed by the 49ers, but clearly the unit catches a break today facing the Colts much more conservative offensive game-style. Note as well that Indy has already seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records and in six of its last seven after three or more consecutive losses, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the number in five of its last six after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This number is high. 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Colts/Saints. |
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12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers UNDER 37 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 151 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bills three-game win streak ended with a 24-17 loss at home to the Ravens. Buffalo is seeking its tenth win of the year for the first time since 1999, but the Bills will have their hands full with this Steelers team which enters having won three straight. Last week the Steelers got the job done vs. the Cards by running hte ball for 141 yards by committee. Pittsburgh also held Arizona to just 240 yards of offense. The Bills love slowing things down though and wearning out teams. Buffalo only averages 21.3 PPG, but it only allows 16.3. QB Josh Allen has 17 passing TD's and eight rushing. The pick: Note that the Bills have seen the total dip under the number in all six games they've played in as an underdog, while Pittsburgh has een the total go under in three of four as a home favorite this season. I'm banking on a classic hard-nosed, lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bills/Steelers. |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 174 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Eli Manning is back under center for the Giants, who enter at 2-10 and nothing to play for. Manning is purely playing for pride, but I think the future hall of famer is going to predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. The Eagles are on the ropes and need to basically "win out" the remainder of the season and get outside help to play the playoffs (5-7). Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has 20 TD's and seven INT's, but he's also been sacked 30 times. New York has 26 sacks. Philly only allows 91 rushing yards per game though, so the Giants' already one-dimensional offense is going to become even more so on the National Stage. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 as a home favorite, including in two of three this season. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Giants/Eagles. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 78 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: So why should we expect a "shootout" on the short week? Chicago isn't known for its offensive prowess and Dallas has been inconsistent on that side of the ball all year as well. Despite that though I think this number is low, as I expect these two still playoff hopeful sides to not sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Instead, I look for each to attack from start to finish. Chicago picked up a huge win over Detroit last week and at 6-6 its stil alive in the NFC playoff race. And for Dallas, it comes in off a putrid performance at home vs. the Bills and another loss here will be a major setback. At 6-6 the Cowboys still have a one game lead in the NFC East. The pick: Note as well that the Cowboys have already seen the total go over the number in four of five as a road favorite this year, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. These starting QB's have something to prove and if not now...when? Look for this one to go over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Boys/Bears. |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 155 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle owns an 11-5 edge the last 16 in this series, including having won five straight. Clearly Minnesota has revenge on its mind. The Vikes come out of their bye in need of a win with a difficult schedule ahead. Minnesota will look to grind this one out in my opinion, as the Hawks allow 101.5 rushing yards per game and Vikes' RB Dalvin Cook already had 1,017 rushing yards and 11 TD's on the ground, along with another 455 receiving yards. The pick: Seattle will have seen the 49ers lose last night, so a victory here keeps it in pace for the conference title as well. The Hawks face a difficult task vs. a Vikings' defense which concedes only 94.2 RYPG. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten as a road dog, while the Hawks have seen it dip below the posted number in four of their last five after four or more straight SU victories. Two great offenses, but the situation and numbers both point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Vikes/Hawks. |
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12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 126 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texans are in a dog fight in the AFC South, while at 10-1 the Patriots are well on their way to defending their Super Bowl title once again. Houston comes in off a crucial win over the Colts and I think DeShaun Watson can put the pressure on Pats' QB Tom Brady, who has looked poor over the last month. Overall Brady has averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt passing. The Patriots are going to need Brady to step up here though, as several key players on the defensive side are dealing with a flu bug this week. The pick: Brady faces a Texans' secondary which has been ravaged by injury though, so this sets up well for the veteran to bounce back. Watson and the Texans though will smell the blood in the water and I expect the home side to come out firing here as well. Neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this year, but I believe the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this contest has this one looking like a "shootout," instead of a "chess match." Play the over. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Patriots/Texans. |
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11-29-19 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -109 | 75 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: 3-8 Bowling Green meets 6-5 Buffalo with nothing on the line. Yes the Bulls could be eligible for a slightly better bowl game with a win today, but after becoming eligible last time out, a mental lapse is inevitable in my opinion. Bowling Green is just 3-8 and can't even use the role of spoiler as motivation today. Bowling Green was killed 66-24 by Ohio last time out and I have a hard time seeing it mustering that much offense this time around. Buffalo smashed Toledo 49-30 in its last game. The pick: The Bulls really do need one more win to solidy their positioning, but this is a contest in which it can sit back and control the tempo. Bowling Green is a run first offense and Buffalo ranks in the top ten in stopping the rush. Also note that four of Bowling Green's five games on the road this year have fallen under the number already. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle this time around. 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bowling Green/Buffalo. |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 58 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -103 | 59 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Mississippi State is 5-6 and it needs to win this game to become eligible. Ole Miss is 4-7 and it's now out to play the role of spoiler. The Egg Bowl looks like a "shootout" out to me this year. Mississippi comes in off a game in which its defense just allowed 58 points to LSU. The pick: Mississippi State completely dominated this game last year, winning 35-3. This year Ole Miss is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air, so QB Tommy Stevens is primed for a big performance on the National stage in my opinion. Note that Ole Miss has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year after playing a game at home, while Mississippi State has seen the total eclipse the number in three of four this season following a SU victory. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Mississippi/Mississippi State. |
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11-23-19 | Liberty v. Virginia UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-55 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are eligible for a bowl. Liberty is 6-4 and Virginia is 7-3. I'm expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game between these two non-conference opponents, each looking to improve its bowl positioning. The Cavs won this game last year, but neither team was able to break the 400 yard barrier on the offensive side. Virginia also has to be wary here not to "look ahead" to its game vs. Virginia Tech in its regular season finale (note that three of Virginia's last five wins came by single digits.) The pick: Liberty QB Stephen Calvert has 23 TD's and just three INT's this season, but I think he'll have a difficult time here from this aggressive Virginia pass rush that can not afford to look past its opponent today. Note as well that Liberty has seen the total dip under the number in all four games it's played in already this year as the underdog, while Virginia has seen the total dip below in its last four after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This total is a tad high. 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Liberty/Virginia. |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bears are 4-5 and the Rams are 5-4. Each has struggled mightily this year, but both have an opportunity to get things heading in the other direction with a victory here today. It's an important game for both struggling teams and I envision this one being a wide open "shootout," rather than a low-scoring "chess match." LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 17-12 loss to the Steelers last week, while the Bears snapped a four-game slide with a 20-13 victory over the Lions. While both those games were low-scoring and while each has struggled to put points on the board, I think the stage is now set for Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky and Rams' pivot Jared Goff, to shine. The pick: Chicago is getting a balance on offense now with its run game, as David Montgomery has 235 yards and three TD's over his past three weeks. Trubisky himself will benefit here from a Rams' defense which is allowing 240 yards per game through the air. The Bears are even worse against the pass though, allowing 253 yards per game through the air. Neither team is going to win this game on the ground. As stated off the top, I think the stage is now set for these two QB's to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over. 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the Bears/Rams OVER. |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 52 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 144 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans is 7-2, but it comes in off a terrible 26-9 loss at home to The Falcons. Tampa Bay is only 3-6 and it broke a four-game slide with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals last time out. Yes the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards in the NFL this year, but they catch Drew Brees clearly still working through some issues. I have every confidence that Brees will eventually return to his normal dominating self, but I believe he will in fact struggle again here today. Note that Tampa has the BEST rushing defense, which turns the Saints into an incredibly one-dimensional team. The pick: The Saints are also better against the run than pass, but after last week's poor effort, New Orleans also catches a break here facing Jameis Winston, who enters with a poor 17:14 TD:INT. Note that the Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last seven as a road favorite, while TB has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect these two struggling teams to continue to struggle with consistency and play the under. 10* play on the Saints/Bucs UNDER. |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -107 | 85 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a big game for both teams. Cleveland picked up a win over the Bills last Sunday to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Another victory here on Thursday night vs. a red hot Steelers team which has won four straight will be paramount in keeping that dream alive. Pittsburgh has won four straight. Both teams have struggled to put points on the board and each has been carried by its defensive play to this point. But I think the narrative on that will change tonight on the short week. The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game (including 2-0 this year), while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in four of its last five following a home victory. So far these starting QB's have been terrible this year, but each will be given the green light to operate tonight. I think this number is just a little low. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Steelers/Browns. |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: These are the top two teams in the NFC West. They're quite possibly the best two teams in the entire NFC overall as well. The 49ers are undefeated at 8-0, while Seattle is 7-2. Last week San Francisco's vaunted defense looked pretty ordinary in the 49ers closer than expected 28-25 victory in Arizona. Now the 49ers have to contend with another mobile QB, except this one is putting up MVP numbers and has a ton of experience. The Hawks aren't going to sit back and wait for San Francisco to make a mistake, they'll be going after San Fran's defense again at every opportunity. The pick: Wilson has 22 TD's and just one INT so far, so San Fran's defense isn't going to get too many opportunities anyways. I think from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in interestingly nine of its last 11 after a win by six points or less, while San Fran has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Hawks/49ers. |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs UNDER 53 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards are off a tough 28-25 home loss to the 49ers, while Tampa Bay lost a heart-braker in a 40-34 OT setback vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. While each club comes in off a high-scoring loss in its last action, I believe the stage is set for much more of a defensive affair in this one. Arizona is in third in the NFC West, but it's still won three of its last five games. The season is on the line here for the Cards essentially this weekend. Note that Cards' QB Kyler Murray has 2,229 passing yards with nine TD's and four INT's, while also posting 313 rushing yards. Also note that Murray has suffered 29 sacks. The pick: Tampa's lost four in a row and it hasn't won a game at home all year. Head coach Bruce Arians is an offensive minded coach and clearly he's not going to be happy coming into this one. Arians won't go down quietly though. Tampa QB Jameis Winston has 2,407 passing yards with 16 TD's and ten INT's. Winston has suffered 30 sacks this year. Look for the home side intstead to lean heavily on RB's Peyton Barber (277 yards, three TD's) and Ronald Jones Jr (381, three TD's), while on offense. Finally note that Arizona has already seen the total go under the number in three of its four games on the road this year, while TB has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a home favorite. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Cards/Bucs. |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 47 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 86 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a big game for both of these hungry AFC sides. The Chargers are 4-5 and the Raiders are 4-4. Funnily enough, the Chargers could be heading to London next year, while the Raiders are on their way to Vegas. LA though is coming off back-to-back wins over the Bears and Packers and with its season essentially on the line, it's safe to say that Philip Rivers and company won't be "sitting back" and waiting for the home side to make a mistake. Melvin Gordon missed the first few games because of a contract dispute for LA, but the big RB is now finally back into "game shape" and it's opened things up considerably for Rivers to properly operate. The pick: The Raiders' defense is injured and it gave up more than 400 yards and three TD's to the Lions in their latest outing. Note that Oakland has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. DeShaun Watson torched the Raiders' secondary and it gave up six TD's to Aaron Rodgers the week before that. Derek Carr is also going to be given the "green light" to air things out as Oakland's offense will once again have to carry the load this week. I think these two gun-slinging QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Chargers/Raiders. |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio OVER 54.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami Ohio won last year's contest 30-28 and I expect a similar hard-fought and ultimately higher-scoring game here as well. That victory snapped a five-game win streak in the series for Ohio. Miami Ohio is 4-4 and 3-1 in Conference play and it comes in confident after winning its last two games, including a 23-16 road victory over Kent State in its most recent. Ohio is also 4-4 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, most recently pulling away for a 34-21 victory over Ball State. The winner will take over first place in the MAC. Brett Gabbert is the QB for the RedHawks and he has 1360 passing yards and four receivers with 100 receiving yards. Note that the Bobcats allow 446.5 YPG on the defensive side. The pick: Ohio though has scored 78 points over its last two games (both victories) and I expect the home side to open up the playbook and push the pace again here as well. Bobcats' QB Nathan Rourke has 1,743 passing yards with ten TD's and five INT's so far. Note that Miami Ohio has seen the total go over the number in its last four after two straight wins over a conference rival, while Ohio has seen the total go over in 11 of its last 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL BEATDOWN on the OVER Miami Ohio/Ohio. |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 128 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Has New England been "tested" this year on the defensive side of the ball? So far the Patriots are putting up historic numbers defensively, but many pundits claim that they've yet to face a "real" offense. Baltimore's versatile pivot Lamar Jackson definitely is a challenge for any team, but I still believe that the Pats' unit will be more than "up for it." Note that Baltimore may be 5-2, but it's schedule certainly hasn't been "murderers row" to this point either. And will rest lead to rust? The Patriots are pounding out convincing wins each and every week, but the Ravens will have to quickly try to regain their form after the extra time off. Clearly the home side will have to get out and push the pace of this one if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset vs. the Pats' strong defense today. The pick: Note that New England has seen the total in five of its last seven as a road favorite of three points or less, while Baltimore has seen the total soar over in six of its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight. The overall situation combined with these strong O/U trends make the "over" the correct call here. 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Pats/Ravens. |
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11-02-19 | Boise State v. San Jose State OVER 58 | Top | 52-42 | Win | 100 | 108 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Jose State Spartans are 4-4. Note that that's more victories than their last two season's combined. San Jose State needs two more wins to become eligible and I expect the home side to open up the playbook as it looks to pull off the upset. Boise State is 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country, but it'll be out to rebound here after a 28-25 loss to BYU last weekend. The pick: San Jose State QB Josh Love has been "under the radar" all season, as he comes in ranked No. 2 in the conference in passing yards and in eight games he's only thrown three INT's. The Spartans though are allowing the second most yards in the conference defensively (442.9), so Love has had to push the pace almost every weekend. Boise State has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 on the road, while San Jose State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after a road victory. The numbers and situation point to the over as the correct call in this one. 10* play on the OVER Boise State/San Jose State. |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The last few Monday/Thursday games have been terrible matchups and this one follows suit. With nothing to play for though, I think the Fish simply go through the motions tonight and I look for the Steelers to "control" this one while on offense, instead of trying to run up the score and "run" this downtrodden visiting side off the field. Miami is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for this one. The Steelers beat the Chargers two weeks ago and then they had their bye week. Mason Rudolph is back after suffering a concussion scare for Pittsburgh, but he'll be asked to do nothing more than to manage this game vs. the winless Dolphins, who are now in the hunt for a few top playoff picks. The pick: Note as well that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a road loss, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after covering the spread in two or more straight games. I'm banking on a low-scoring affair on Monday night. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Fish/Steelers. |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -104 | 154 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers come in off a big 41-24 win over the Raiders at home, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is a big question mark this weekend and if he does play, one has to wonder how effective the dynamic pivot really will be? Matt Moore is a "clock manager," so expect to see a heavy does of LeSean McCoy and the running game from the home side will on the offensive end. The pick: The Packers' strength this year has been on the defensive side of the ball though and Moore is clearly going to be under pressure here as well. Additionally note that GB has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while KC has seen the total go under in seven of its last eight after having lost two of its last three games outright. This one has defensive battle written all over it, play the under. 10* play on the UNDER Packers/Chiefs. |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 44 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: New England is 6-0 and New York is 1-4. The Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 home win over the Giants, while the Jets enter off their first victory of the year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. I expect a more conservative style of play from the Pats in this contest though as they look to avoid the upset and to "look past" these suddenly confident Jets. New York only allows 358 total yards of offense, with 262.2 through the air and a paltry 95.8 on the ground. The pick: The strengh of the Jets is indeed on the defensive side of the ball and while the Patriots have an unreal offense, it is in fact their defense which is also "stealing the show" in New England this year. So far the Pats allow only 234.7 YPG this season, which includes an average of 161 through the air and only 73.7 on the ground. Note that New England has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 20 on the road and in 14 of its last 19 as a road favorite, while the Jets have seen the total dip under the number in nine of 13 as a home underdog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Patriots/Jets. |
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10-20-19 | Ravens v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore is ranked 17th on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens though have a big question mark in the WR position this week with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown listed as questionable. The Seahawks are getting unreal play from QB Russell Wilson, who has 16 TD's so far and no INT's. The Hawks defense isn't what it used to be, but so far it's been better than average by posting 12 takeaways YTD. The pick: Note that Baltimore has interestingly seen the total dip under the number in 11 of its last 15 after having won two out of its last three games SU, while Seattle has seen the total go below the posted number in 11 of its last 17 as a favorite. This number is high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Ravens/Hawks. |
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10-19-19 | Air Force v. Hawaii UNDER 64 | Top | 56-26 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high. 10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii. |
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10-13-19 | Titans v. Broncos OVER 38 | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -113 | 150 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Tennessee is 2-3 and Denver is 1-4. Most likely neither team will see the playoffs. That said, each still has a shot if they can win this game today. This is an important game for both sub-.500 teams and as such, I look for more of a wide open affair. Last week the Titans lost 14-7 to the stingy BIlls. The Broncos saved their season (mathematically) with a 20-13 road win over the Chargers this past Sunday and I expect them to build off that performance with their best effort at home so far. The pick: Both teams are ranked in the lower half on the offensive side of the ball, but I think that Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota push the pace of this one on the road, similar to their Week 1 destruction of the Cleveland Browns. Joe Flacco and Phillip Linday come off their best performance for the Broncos and there's no reason not to think that they won't be given the green light here as well. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road dog of 7 points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. The situation points to this total flying over this low number sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Titans/Broncos. |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State OVER 40 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 127 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU. |
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10-11-19 | Colorado v. Oregon OVER 56.5 | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it. 10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon. |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 70.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State. App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high. 10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette. |
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10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 156 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts are 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0. KC managed a 34-30 road win in Detroit last time out, while Indianapolis got caught looking ahead to this game after last week’s upset loss at home to the Raiders. I think a similar thing is going to happen here to the now content home side and while I’m not predicting any outright upsets or anything, I do think that the Chiefs come out and try to “control” this one, rather than run their opponent off the field with a frantic pace from start to finish. And clearly Jacoby Brissett and company can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to beat the high-flying Chiefs at their own style of game. Instead, the visitors will also definitely be out to “control” this contest while on offense. So from an overall situational stand point, there’s no question non my mind that this one sets up as more of a defensive chess match, than a wide open shootout. The pick: However also note that Indy has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 after one or more SU losses, while KC has seen the total dip under the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite of ten points or more. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Colts/Chiefs. |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 50 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State. |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. I’d consider myself primarily a “situational” handicapper. And that’s definitely the approach I take when looking at Over/unders in all sports. I do indeed feel this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The short week isn’t going to help either team obviously. LA is coming off an atrocious loss to Tampa Bay at home, unable to slow down Jameis Winston and company defensively, while also failing completely on the offensive side. Note that Jared Goff threw three INT’s last week and the run game produced only 23 yards total. Goff threw the ball 62 times! If the Rams have any hopes of getting back on track, clearly they have to establish the run game. The pick: Seattle’s three wins have come against the Bengals, Steeler and Cardinals. Are the Rams better than these teams? Probably. Seattle had a complete meltdown at home to New Orleans two weeks ago, so clearly it won’t be looking past or taking anything for granted today facing co-division leading LA this evening. As stated off the top, from an overall “situational” stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a lower-scoring under. But note that the numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that LA has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous game, while Seattle has seen the total go under in four of its last five after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense and to limit its overall mistakes and when also taking into account these strong trends/stats, everything points to the under as the savvy call in this one. 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rams/Hawks. |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers. |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 49 | Top | 55-40 | Loss | -115 | 150 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams. |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67.5 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 102 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under. |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary. The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins. |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 148 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards. The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one. 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings. |
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09-21-19 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico OVER 68 | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 121 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the annual Rio Grande Rivalry and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lobos are 40-14-3 at home against NMSU in Albuquerque. But note that the Aggies have won two of the last three in this series. With neither side lacking for confidence or motivation, this one definitely has more the feel of a wide open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” New Mexico State is led by Tevaka Tuioti, who was 6 for 13 for 132 yards vs. Notre Dame, and who is a legitimate dual threat QB. The pick: These two teams hate each other and I believe that extra factor is going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout. Note as well though that New Mexico State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight after a loss by 17 points or more, while New Mexico has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a shade low. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER New Mexico State/New Mexico. |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags. |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 60.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish. The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane. |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders. |
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09-14-19 | TCU v. Purdue OVER 51 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -112 | 57 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: TCU comes out of its bye week and I look for it to match pace with the home side. The Horned Frogs won’t be taking anything for granted after having lost three of their last four on the road dating to last year. TCU is 1-0 after beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. So far the Horned Frogs have averaged 200 yards per game and allowed just seven points. But clearly TCU is in for a much stiffer test this evening. The pick: Purdue has won four of its last five home games. The Boilermakers have gotten 932 yards and nine TD’s from QB Elijah Sindelar and I look for the senior QB to open up the playbook tonight as well. He’ll have to, as note that Purdue is allowing 29 points and 447.5 YPG on the defensive side of things. TCU comes in rested and focused and knows it can’t rest on its heels if it has any hopes at an upset. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely feel this number is a little low. 10* totals play on OVER TCU/Purdue. |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 67 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m making a play on both the side and the total in this game. If you’ve bought this package, then you know that I’m on the Tar Heels with the points here. After starting the year 2-0, I think that Wake is going to take a step back here. The Demon Deacons have a “cream puff” next weekend vs. Elon, before a gruelling upcoming schedule vs. Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and NC State. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” The pick: UNC has been better than advertised at 2-0 and I expect the visitors to once again lean heavily on RB Javonte Williams, who so far has 178 yards over two games. Additionally note that UNC has seen the total go under in its last five games after a win by six points or less in two straight games. This number is a shade high. 10* play on the under UNC/Wake. |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 49.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs. The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 49.5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under. Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play |
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08-31-19 | Syracuse v. Liberty OVER 66 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orange won’t be taking anything for granted in Week 1 after finishing 10-3 last year (6-2 in the ACC). Syracuse was invited the Camping World Bowl where it defeated WVU 34-18. The Flames finished 6-6 in 2018 and they still weren’t invited to go Bowling. Clearly Liberty will be out to score an early upset here after getting snubbed last season. The pick: The Orange were dominant defensively last year, but the unit has suffered turnover in the offseason. Syracuse has to deal with Maryland before a date vs. the Tigers, so I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout (Note as well that the Orange have seen the total fly over the number in four of their last five as a road favorite.) This number is a little low. Syracuse/Liberty OVER 10* play |
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08-30-19 | Purdue v. Nevada OVER 58 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I believe these non-conference opponents open up the playbook on Friday night and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Purdue went 6-7 in 2018, while Nevada was 8-5. But the Boilermakers overcame an 0-3 start to win six of their final nine games. The Wolfpack also started slowly by going 3-3, but they went 4-2 the rest of the way. The pick: Both teams return plenty of starters from last season and each will clearly be looking to “hit the ground running” in 2019 after their respective slow starts last year. In the end Nevada scored 25 or more points in nine of its 13 games, while Purdue would average just under 30 PPG last season. For all the situational reasons listed above, play the over. Purdue/Nevada OVER 10* play |
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08-29-19 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 149 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 Championship tho shear, with 15 returning starters from last years team. The Utes get the job done with a suffocating defense which has all four defensive linemen returning from a rushing defense which led the conference with just 1003 YPG. The Utes also have an experienced offense, with QB Tyler Huntley back under center, along with RB Zack Moss. The pick: BYU had a 20-point third-quarter lead over Utah a year ago, but it wound up losing 35-27 in the end. The Cougars have lost eight in a row in this series. BYU is once again led by QB Zach Wilson. The secondary for the Cougars took a hit with both Chris Wilcox and Troy Warner injured in camp. BYU has to keep Utah honest, so look for the home side to try and establish its run game throughout. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it. Utah/BYU UNDER 10* play |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 43 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: While Seattle won a lower-scoring 24-13 contest at home over the Cowboys back on September 23rd, I believe this time around we’ll see a much more wide open “shootout.” Both teams have made leaps and strides since the early weeks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for nearly 1,500 yards, which allowed Dak Prescott to find his game again. The late season acquisition of Amari Cooper was also a huge boost for the Dallas offense late in the year. Seattle veteran QB Russell Wilson put together arguably his best ever campaign and he also benefited greatly from a strong run game, which finished No. 1 in the league. From a situational stand point in my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight this year as an underdog, while Dallas as seen the total go “over” in five of eight at home and in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 45 points. This number is a low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 58.5 | Top | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 533 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with a ton of momentum collide in the Gator Bowl from Jacksonville Florida on Monday night and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. NC State enters on a three-game win streak over Louisville, UNC and ECU, while Texas A&M also posted three straight wins to end the year over Ole Miss, UAB and LSU. NC State will be leaning heavily on QB Ryan Finley here, and he has 3,789 passing yards along with 24 TD’s. The Aggies weakness on defense is against the pass, allowing 262.7 YPG. Clearly Finley will be given the “green light” to air it out from start to finish. The Aggies are also down several defenders, including safety Donovan Wilson. The Aggies feature a potent offensive attack as well, featuring dynamic back Trayveon Williams, who had 1,524 rushing yards and 15 major scores. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NC State has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine non-conference road games as an underdog in the 2.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-30-18 | Colts v. Titans OVER 43.5 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: With a playoff spot up for grabs, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number sooner, rather than later. The Colts come in off a thrilling 28-27 come from behind home win over the Giants last Sunday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well. The Titans posted a 25-16 home win over the Giants last weekend. Overall the Colts average 26.8 PPG and they allow 21.2. The Titans average 19.5 PPG and they allow 18. In the first meeting this year though, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 297 passing yards and three TD’s in a 28 point win. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 after playing at home, while Tennessee has seen the total go “over” in five of its last six in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 28 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 55 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 482 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Irish are 12-0 and the Tigers are 13-0. This is the Cotton Bowl, but the winner of this will move on to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the National Championship Game. Notre Dame had to hold on for dear life in its regular season finale vs. USC, while Clemson easily steamrolled Pittsburgh in its ACC Championship title. Both teams feature elite defenses and I believe they’ll “steal the show” in this one. The pick: Each team will be trying to establish its run game throughout while on offense. And take it row what you will, but Notre Dame has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten after allowing 280 or more passing yards in its previous game and in four of its last five neutral site games, while Clemson has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last nine neutral site affairs on a three weeks or more lay off. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse v. West Virginia OVER 68 | Top | 34-18 | Loss | -110 | 461 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: No one expected the Orange to finish 9-3 overall and go 5-1 in their last six, but now they’ll look to continue to defy the odds and carry that momentum over into the Camping World Bowl. WVU comes in off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma and it’ll be without starting QB Will Grier, who will skip to focus on the draft. That just means that it’s “next man up” for the Mountaineers. And that next man is Jack Allison, who now has a golden opportunity to cement his role next year. WVU is loaded with other offensive weapons though and the Mountaineers will be hungry to finish up strong as well. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Syracuse has seen the total go “over” the number in five of seven as a favorite already this year, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of six already this season when the total is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Baylor OVER 55 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 314 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one will sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. This is the Texas Bowl from NRG Stadium in Houston. Vandy became eligible by winning its final two games of the year over Ole Miss and Tennessee. Baylor’s also looking to cap a 6-6 season a high note after it broke a two-game skid with a bowl eligibility victory over Texas Tech back on November 24th. On offense, Vanderbilt will be leaning on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who posted 1,001 rushing yards and ten TD’s on 144 carries this season. Baylor is susceptible against the run as well, allowing 172.8 rushing yards per game. Vandy also has a steady presence under center in Kyle Shurmur, who finished with 2,844 yards and 23 passing TD’s. After only one victory last season, clearly the Bears are very happy to be back bowling this year. Baylor’ QB Charlie Brewer finished with 2,635 passing yards and and 17 TD’s. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four when playing with two weeks rest, while Baylor has seen the total go “over” in its last two non-conference games. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks OVER 54.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt that this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout. The Chiefs come in off a tough 29-28 home loss to the Chargers on Thursday. The Chiefs remain the highest scoring team in the league, but they’re in the bottom third defensively. KC needs to win this game to keep pace for the top spot in the AFC. The Hawks also come in off a tough 26-23 OT loss in San Francisco last weekend. Both teams feature a couple of the best QB’s in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Each will be given the green light here today obviously. As stated off the top, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in six of seven on the road already this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB UNDER 44 | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -115 | 225 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. UAB won the C-USA with a 10-3 record, while NIU was 8-5 overall. The Blazers ten wins were a school record and UAB got the job done with stifling defensive play. UAB has a question mark with its starting QB AJ Erdely, but the strength on offense is the run game behind Spencer Brown anyways. The UAB offense would only post 30 points four times this year, but the defense is allowing just 17.3 PPG. NIU also relies on its run game to generate offense, led by Tre Harbison. The Huskies averaged only 20.7 PPG and they allowed just 21.5. The pick: Two defensive minded teams which rely on the run game collide in this one. Also note that UAB has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five then the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while NIU has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 15 when the total is set in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers OVER 50 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -111 | 60 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: This total has dropped since opening and I think the value has definitely now swung to the over. Two teams which hate each other collide on Monday night and I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair than a lower-scoring battle. The Saints are 11-2 and are now in top spot in the NFC after LA lost to the Bears last week. New Orleans owns the tie-breaker against the Rams and with a chance to further cement, I expect veteran Drew Brees to be “on point” tonight. And as one of 6-7 teams, Carolina is only one-half game back of the Vikings for the second wild-card berth, so the home side still has everything to play for here as well. From a “situational” stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up a shootout. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 13 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 50 points, while Carolina has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a low, play the “over.” 10* |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both NFC playoff hopefuls. The Vikes are in rebound mode after falling 24-10 in New England last weekend, while the Hawks are rolling now, most recently destroying the 49ers 43-16. The Vikes average 22.9 PPG and they allow 22.5. Note though that Kirk Cousins has the Vikes’ offense ranked sixth in the league with 276.3 YPG. The Seahawks are averaging 26.6 PPG behind the league’s No. 1 rushing offense. The defense is allowing 21.6 PPG. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “over” the number in four of six on the road this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in 11 of its last 16 as a home favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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12-09-18 | Rams v. Bears UNDER 52 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 104 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rams posted a tough 30-16 road win in Detroit last weekend they’ll have their hands full again this week on Sunday night at Soldier Field. Chicago is out to atone for a 30-27 OT loss to New York last weekend, so from a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as more of a lower-scoring defensive battle, where field position and time of possession are key to victory. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six on the road already this year, while Chicago has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten as a home dog. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* |
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12-08-18 | Navy v. Army OVER 39.5 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Navy dominated this match-up for over a decade, but the Army Golden Knights come into this year’s match-up having won two straight. Army is 9-2 in 2018 and enters on top form, having won seven straight. Navy is just 3-9 and it’s gone only 1-8 in its last nine overall. The Midshipmen live for this game though and I’m expecting the underdog to push the pace from start to finish. This is the first time since 2002 that Navy will finish with a losing record, so it’ll have one last shot at redemption here as it looks to play spoiler on Army’s great overall campaign to this point. With both teams pushing the pace, from a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: Note as well though that Navy has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four as a neutral field underdog, while Army has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 20 as a favorite. Play the “over.” 10* play |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The winner of this divisional contest will remain on the fringes of the wild card spot, while the other will officially be eliminated from contention. With so much on the line, I’m expecting each side to open up the playbook The Redskins lost starting QB Alex Smith to injury and Colt McCoy was unable to to lead Washington to a win on Thanksgiving Day, eventually falling 31-23 to the Cowboys. Philadelphia’s stagnant offense will have its opportunities today against a Redskins unit which allowed Dallas to score three of its four TD’s by covering at least 16 yards. The Eagles kept their slim hopes alive in last week’s come from behind 25-22 win over the Giants and I think they carry that confidence and momentum over here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “over” the numb run eight of its last 11 as a road underdog, while Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 vs. the division. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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11-25-18 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: For all intents and purposes, this is a “must win” game for both teams. The Packers are just 4-5 and they’ve lost three of their last four after a terrible loss to Seattle last weekend. The only hope Green Bay has is with QB Aaron Rodgers, so expect the visitors air it out early and often. The Vikes come in off a brutal loss to the Bears last weekend and they’ll also be hungry to reverse their recent offensive struggles with a break out performance. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last eight “dome” games, while Minnesota has seen the total go “over” in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State UNDER 66 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important game for both teams. The winner plays in the Big West title game. Utah State has won ten in a row and it plays with revenge after falling in this contest last year. The Aggies have a difficult task ahead of them and they were almost caught “looking ahead” to this one with a “close call” against Colorado State last weekend. Utah State has its eyes on a big bowl game, but it’ll have to take it one game at a time: “Survive and advance. Just like in the NCAA Tournament,” Utah State head coach Matt Wells said after the game, according to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com. “You know, I’m going to celebrate after a win like this. I’m going to let the players celebrate all the way until Monday. We have a special season going.” Boise State looked decent offensively against a weak New Mexico defense last week, but the Broncos looked great defensively, holding the Lobos to only 14 points. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah State has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records, while Boise State has seen the total go “under” in four of five already this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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11-23-18 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia OVER 81.5 | Top | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 98 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important game for both teams and that fact alone is the reason why I predict a high-scoring shootout. The Sooners will be playing in the Big 12 Championship Game next week no matter what, but clearly Oklahoma would like to win out with the hopes of somehow making it into the Playoff Championship. WVU needs to win this game and have Texas lose for its opportunity to play in the Conference championship and while the deck is stacked against them, clearly the Mountaineers are going to leave everything they have on the field on Seniors night. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring game in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten as a road favorite, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of its last eight as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 60 | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Atlanta can’t sit back and hope for the Saints to make the first mistake today. The Falcons’ season has been de-railed by injury, but veteran QB Matt Ryan will be given the green light to air the ball out early and often. The Saints only need two more victories to earn a first round bye. Clearly Drew Brees is going to have the foot on the gas here from start to finish this weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five after two or more SU losses, while New Orleans has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 22 at home. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks OVER 49 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 38 m | Show |
The play: For all intents and purposes, this is a “do or die” game for both teams. Green Bay kept its hopes alive with a 31-12 home win last weekend, while Seattle came up just short in a 36-31 setback to the Rams on Sunday. The Packers won’t be just sitting back on their heels and looking for the Hawks to make the first mistake. Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this year and it’ll have to do what it does best and that’s give the ball to QB Aaron Rodgers and let him go to work. The Hawks looked terrible defensive last week against the “gun-slinging” Rams’ QB and I think the defense is going to have its hands full here as well. The pick: Note that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” in five of six against conference opponents this year and in its last six as a road dog of three points or less, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten following a divisional contest. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly these are two teams that would take a “mulligan” on the season if given the chance. The Giants come out of their bye week looking to avoid a 1-8 start, while the 49ers enter at 2-7. San Francisco won’t be going down quietly either, it enter off a confidence building 34-3 win over Oakland. Each team has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball and up and down the line, but from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up as a “shoot-out.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in its last two following its bye week, while San Fran has seen the total go over in five of its last eight as a favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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11-10-18 | Michigan v. Rutgers OVER 44.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 3:30pmET, my selection is one Michigan/Rutgers to finish OVER the total. As one of the lowest totals on the board, I believe that this game gives everyone great value on the OVER. Michigan may even enough to score higher than the total themselves as they average 37 PPG this season so far. The last time the Wolverines played in HighPoint.com Stadium, they scored a total of 78 points. Look for another high scoring game. Take the OVER. |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -113 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio is on a roll and that’s not going to stop this weekend facing the RedHawks, who just lost 51-42 to Buffalo. The Bobcats are rolling across the board, , most recently winning 52-14 and 59-14 over WMU as a three-point dog last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio has seen the total go “over” the number in both games that it’s played so far this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in three of its last four off a win against a conference rival, while the RedHawks have seen the total go “over” in four of five as an underdog already this year (and in four of their last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range). The RedHawks desperately need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. With each team pushing the pace, I’m expecting this one to soar “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys UNDER 40 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come off their bye weeks. Tennessee lost 20-19 in England in its final game before its bye, while Dallas fell 20-17 in Washington in Week 7. Both teams need a win and I think each will be looking to establish the run from the “get go.” As a result, expect this total to sneak under the number at the end of the night. The pick: Both teams feature a couple of QB’s who are better at “managing” the game, than “blowing it wide open.” They also feature two very strong RB’s in the Titans’ Derrick Henry and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot. Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six already this year as an underdog, while Dallas has seen the total go “under” in six of its last nine non-conference games. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 51.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -109 | 90 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Browns will be leaving everything on the field today as they look to snap a three-game slide. KC enters off a 30-23 home victory over Denver, while Cleveland fell 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. The teams: After their loss the Pats, the Chiefs come in having won two straight. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and they allow 25.6. Patrick Mahomes had four TD passes and an an INT last week. So far the Chiefs have been up to the task each week, but it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The Browns have been trying hard each week, but so far that effort hasn’t translated into many wins or offensive production. Cleveland averages 21.1 PPG and it concedes 26.2. RB Nick Chubb had 65 rushing yards last week. The pick: Note that KC has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as a favorite and in 13 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Cleveland has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home and in three of four already as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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11-01-18 | Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland comes in off its third straight loss, a 42-28 setback at home to the Colts. Derek Carr and company are just playing for pride at this point. So too are the 49ers, who have lost six straight, most recently an 18-15 setback on the road to Arizona. With nothing to play, on the short week and with each side dealing with injuries, points are going to be at a premium in my opinion. The teams: The Raiders have already shelved RB Marshawn Lynch after he had surgery last week. Oakland also made some moves in its bye week, trading star receiver Amari Cooper to Dallas for a first round pick. Winning this Thursday night game is not of the greatest importance to this team right now. The 49ers season went down the toilet when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury. The 49ers have seen four of their losses come by eight points or less, a testament their defensive and special teams play. The pick: The 49ers have been solid against the run and the Raiders have pretty much abandoned their ground game. The visitors offense is extremely one dimensional and I think the home side’s talented defensive unit will easily be able to make the adjustments to make things difficult on Carr from start to finish. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under. |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 53 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans comes in off a 24-23 road win over Baltimore, the league’s No. 1 defense, while Minnesota enters of a 37-17 dismantling of the Jets. These teams battled to a higher-scoring affair in the playoffs last year as well, with Minnesota eventually prevailing 29-24. The teams: The Saints are averaging the second most points in the league, which is a good thing as the defense has regressed from last season, allowing 27.2 PPG. Drew Brees has an insane 13/0 TD/INT ratio and a QBR of 121.6. Minnesota is averaging 25.3 PPG and and while it’s fifth in the league against the run defensively, it’s only 16th against the pass. Clearly that doesn’t bode particularly well facing the red hot Brees and company. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes have seen the “over” go 5-2 in their last seven following a SU victory. Both teams are “firing on all cylinders” offensively. Play the “over.” |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-42 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami has lost three of its last four, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit, while Houston comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won four straight, most recently a commanding 20-7 win on the road over Jacksonville. On the short week, I believe points will be at a premium. The teams: Miami was out gained 457-322 last week against a pretty bad Lions defense. And that doesn’t bode well this week facing a Texans’ defensive unit which is clearly “firing on all cylinders.” It wasn’t a pretty win last week by the Texans by any means, as they’d hold on for a slim 272-259 yardage edge in the victory. The pick: Miami’s only hope on offense is to run the ball today (18th in the league in rushing, but it’s rushed for at least 100 yards in five of seven games.) Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill is injured and Brock Osweiler is “hit or miss.” The Texans have been getting the job done by letting DeShaun Watson “manage” the offense and I don’t think anything will change this week either. Note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Tampa’s fallen on hard times since starting out 2-0, coming into this one having lost three straight. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three, but it got destroyed at home by the high-flying Chargers last weekend. I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “under” between these two hungry teams. The teams: The Browns offense looked terrible last week against a pretty mediocre Chargers’ defense. Baker Mayfield was picked off twice and he only connected on 47.8 percent of his passes. So far he has a 4/5 TD:INT ratio. Mayfield doesn’t have many standout receivers, so look for Cleveland to try and establish the run here so as to alleviate some of the pressure of their rookie pivot. The Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith following a 34-29 setback to the Falcons last Sunday. With the shift in management, I believe we’ll see a marked improvement on that side of the ball this weekend. The pick: As mentioned off the top, I believe the “conditions” are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a wide open “shoot-out.” Play the “under.” |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 68 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: While it’s true that these two teams combine for 84 points and 967 yards per game this year, I believe tonight’s contest will fall “under” this sky-high number. Oregon looks primed for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after playing ranked teams in three consecutive weeks, with two of those games going to OT. The teams: Oregon is averaging 43 PPG and it’s limiting opponents to 122.8 rushing yards per game. Also note that the Ducks are averaging 209.5 rushing yards per game themselves. I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of the run tonight. Washington State is averaging 41.8 PPG, as Gardner Minshew has 2,422 yards, 19 TD’s and four INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oregon has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories, while WSU has seen the total go “under” in four of its last six home games when the total is set between 63.5 and 70. This number is high, play the “under.”
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals UNDER 42.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on a short week on Thursday night and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Denver comes in having lost four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams, while Arizona fell 27-17 in Minnesota to fall to 1-5. The teams: The Broncos gave up 323 yards on the ground in a 34-16 win in New York two weeks ago, only to then allow 270 yards to the Rams on the ground in last Sunday’s setback. QB Case Keenum is nothing more than a clock manager, as the run game, special teams and defense continue to lead the way. Arizona’s offense has been terrible this year, averaging only 13.6 PPG at home so far. Last week the Cardinals looked decent for the first half, before then falling apart in the second. The pick: This one isn’t going to be decided by the QB’s. It’s going to be decided in the trenches, by the defenses and by special teams play. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home. Play the “under.” |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers are 1-4 and last place in the NFC West. This is a “must win” game for San Francisco if it hopes to compete in the playoffs. Starting QB Jimmy Garraopolo was lost to injury for the season three weeks ago, so it’s “do or die” tonight. The 2-2-1 Packers have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers will be eager to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. The teams: San Fran is now led offensively by RB Matt Breida, who is averaging 7.5 yards on 49 carries so far this year. QB CJ Beathard makes his third start after falling 29-27 to the Chargers most recently. Rodgers comes in sporting an elite 10:1 TD/INT and I have a hard time seeing San Francisco slowing him down tonight after the critics have been quick to jump on him after last week’s sub-par effort. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 home games as a favorite of 9 points or more. I’m expecting a wide-open affair, play the “over.” |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 59.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs have started 5-0, but the Pats come in off back-to-back victories and hungry for more after a lacklustre start. New England’s success in the past has had a lot to do with earning the first round bye in the playoffs and if it falls to the Chiefs here, it’s going to have to essentially “run the table” to duplicate that feat against this season. The teams: Patrick Mahomes had 313 yards and an INT in last week’s win over Jacksonville. The Chiefs’ young QB has so far answered every challenge to this point, but he’ll face his most difficult task to date. The Chiefs haven’t been great defensively this season, but so far they haven’t had to be. However, holding Bortles and the Jags to just 20 points last weekend was a big step in the right direction for the unit. New England comes in having won ten straight home games, but the Patriots still won’t want to turn this one into a “track meet” with the high-octane Chiefs. Look for Tom Brady to “control” this one while on offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the total in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while New England has seen the total go “under” in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. This number is a little high, play the “under.”
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10-14-18 | Bears v. Dolphins UNDER 43 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago enters off an impressive 48-10 home win over Tampa Bay back on September 30th, while Miami comes in off a 27-17 road loss to Cincinnati. I’m expecting a hard-fought, lower-scoring “under” once it’s all said and done. The teams: Chicago is averaging 27.8 PPG, but more impressively is the fact that it’s allowing just 16.2 PPG, ranked third overall. QB Mitch Trubsky had 354 passing yards and six TD’s against the Bucs last weekend, his best ever game as a pro. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Clearly Miami can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Bears. Miami is averaging only 288 yards per game, ranked 30th in the NFL (19.8 PPG), while allowing 23.4. QB Ryan Tannehill had 185 passing yards, one TD and two INT’s last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as a favorite and in nine of its last 15 against teams with winning records, while Miami has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last 12 against teams with winning records and in seven of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”
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10-13-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 95 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Duke is in the basement of the ACC Coastal Division and the last thing it can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the surging Yellow Jackets, who are looking for a third straight win. In my opinion, this number is a little hight. The teams: Duke would actually go on to destroy Georgia Tech 43-20 last year, but I think we’re going to see a much lower-scoring “chess match” on Saturday afternoon. The Blue Devils comes out of their bye week off a loss to VT, a game in which it allowed a season-worst 413 yards, including 332 through the air. Duke would allow 11.86 YPA to the Hokies, which nearly doubled their season mark coming in of 6.74. Good news came on the offensive end though, as starting QB Daniel Jones returned from injury to go 23 of 35 for 226 yards and a TD. The Blue Devils roared out to four straight wins last year as well, before then dropping six straight, so clearly the team will be out to avoid a similar fate this season. After three straight losses, the Yellow Jackets have won two straight, most recently steam-rolling Louisville 66-31 last weekend. The triple-option-offense posted a season-best 542 rushing yards, with QB TaQuaon Marshall going for 175 rushing yards and two TD’s. Note that it was the second straight game in which GT did not commit a turnover. The defense has been opportunistic as well, forcing 13 turnovers over the first six games. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Duke has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 17 against the conference and in nine of its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival, while GT has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven after two or more SU victories and in four of its last five off a win against a conference rival. This number is high, play the “under.”
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 53 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Each team comes in off a high-scoring, hard-fought victory last week and I believe they come in “gassed.” The Raiders held on for a 45-42 OT win over the Browns, while the Chargers held on for a 29-27 home victory over a San Francisco team which was using its back-up QB. The teams: The Raiders got a big game from Derek Carr last week, but overall the Oakland offense has been inconsistent this year. Marshawn Lynch though has been a pleasant surprise, as he’d go for 130 yards last week and he now has 300 yards total along with three major scores. The defense has been hit or miss this season as well, looking horrible last week. However, I think it does indeed catch a break here facing what I believe to be a tired Chargers side. LA is averaging 27.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30 PPG. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Bolts have never had issues putting points on the board with Philip Rivers under center (he so far has 11 TD’s and two INT’s), but if the team hopes to take “the next step,” clearly its going to have to get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while LA has seen the total go “under” seven of its last ten against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 49 | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Jacksonville comes in off a 31-12 home win over the Jets last week, while KC enters off a 27-23 road win over Denver. I think these AFC heavyweights “throw down” on Sunday. The teams: So far Jacksonville is averaging only 22 points, while allowing just 14. That’s first in the NFL. However, the Jags’ defense is about to face its stiffest test to date. Blake Bortles look great last week and he’s going to benefit in facing this porous Chiefs’ secondary this afternoon. KC leads the NFL with an average of 36.2 PPG. The Chiefs need to score a lot of points though, as the defense is allowing 28.8 PPG. So far QB Patrick Mahomes has a 14:0 TD/INT. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Jacksonville has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while KC has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four off a win against a division rival. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals enter off a 38-31 OT road win in Oregon and I think it’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. Notre Dame annihilated Wake Forest 56-27 and it’ll be out to push the pace as well. Note that these teams played to a higher-scoring affair last year as well when Stanford won 38-20. The teams: Cardinal’ QB KJ Costello was 19 of 26 for 327 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in last week’s win. Stanford is 47th in the country in passing at 264 YPG. RB Bryce Love had 89 yards and a TD last week. The defense has been super, allowing only 13.5 PPG, but clearly that units faces its stiffest test of the season. Notre Dame is 71st in passing and 66th in total offense with 416.5 YPG. Last week Ian Book threw for 325 yards and two TD’s without an INT in the victory over the Deacons. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Stanford has seen the total go “over” the number in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Notre Dame has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four against the Pac 12. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vikes are 1-1-1 and they’ll be laying everything on the line on the short week to try and score the upset here and avoid the 1-2-1 hole. LA is 3-0 and it’ll be out to avoid any letdowns here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. I think points are going to be plentiful. The teams: The Vikes beat the 49ers 24-16 at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Green Bay on the road. But Minnesota comes into this one off a terrible 27-6 home loss to Buffalo, a game in which it was a 17 point favorite. Two critical first half fumbles didn’t help their cause obviously. Another loss here and Minnesota’s season is “on the ropes” essentially. The Rams would love nothing more than to deliver the “knock out blow” as well. LA beat the Raiders 33-13 on the road on MNF in Week 1, then followed it up with a 34-0 destruction of Arizona in Week 2 and then last week it pulled away for the 35-23 home victory over the Chargers. QB Jared Goff had 354 yards and three TD’s last week. The pick: Minnesota can’t sit back and hope things work out. The Vikes’ offense has to produce tonight, or they’re going to get left behind by the high-powered Rams. LA’s greatest strength early it seems is that it can play any style of game. Wide open, defensive battle, either way it’s adapted its style early and done well in every scenario. I’m anticipating a more wide open affair today. Play the “over.” |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Monday night and I think points are going to be plentiful. Tampa is 2-0 to open the year with wins over New Orleans and Philadelphia, while Pittsburgh comes in desperate at 0-1-1, with a tie against the Browns, followed by a loss to the Chiefs. The teams: Pittsburgh’s defense is in shambles after allowing 21 points to Cleveland (14 of which came in the fourth quarter), along with 42 to Kansas City. KC posted 326 passing yards and Pat Mahomes had six TD’s. Mahomes was sacked just once and the Steelers defense has just two total turnovers over the first two weeks. While Ben Roethlisberger is down some offensive weapons, he’ll clearly be given the green light today to air the ball out. Tampa QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to take immediate advantage of the Steelers’ porous defense, so far he’s completed 78.7 percent of his passes for 819 yards, eight TD’s and one INT over the first two games. DeSean Jackson had five catches and 146 yards with two TD’s in the win over the Saints. The pick: Pittsburgh’s offense is going to have to put some points on the board today, because it knows that its defense isn’t going to stop anyone. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout. Play the “over.” |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers UNDER 44 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last week, but I think points will be at more of a premium in this one. Cincinnati beat Baltimore 34-23, while Carolina fell 31-24 in Atlanta. The teams: So far the Bengals are averaging 34 PPG and allowing 23. The rush defense has been fantastic, ranked fourth overall, so that definitely negates a major strength/focus of the Panthers today. Carolina is averaging 20 PPG and allowing 19.5. The Panthers gave up 442 yards last week, so they’ll be out to atone today in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” the number in its last four as a road dog of three point or less, while Carolina has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven as a favorite. The conditions are definitely right for a lower-scoring “under.”
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 53 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes into your head when you think about these two teams? For me it’s high-flying offenses and very little defensive play. While that is in fact true most weeks, I think these two division rivals will play to more of a lower-scoring affair in Week 3. The teams: The Saints had less than 300 yards offense in the win over the Browns. The offense had 475 yards in a Week 1 loss to the Bucs. Overall though New Orleans can’t be happy with where it sits on either side of the ball. Last year the Saints made big strides because of improved defensive play and the team will have to continue that trend this season if it hopes to once again make a serious playoff run. After coming up short on three occasions in the red zone in a Week 1 loss to the Eagles, the Falcons went four-for-four last week. Overall Atlanta can’t be feeling too bad at this point at where it sits, especially from a defensive stand-point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “under” the number in three of its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while Atlanta has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 off a divisional contest (and in six of its last nine off a win against a division rival.) This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 1-1, looking great in Week 1, but stumbling in Week 2. Cleveland has been very competitive in both of its losses to open the season. These are two young and hungry teams looking for a big win on a short week and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. The teams: New York has lost five of its last six on the road. QB Sam Darnold so far has 532 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s. The Jets are averaging 105.5 yards on the ground per game. The defense has been a bright spot early in allowing just 18.5 points, but I think that the unit comes in “gassed” on the short week. Cleveland is desperate. The Browns haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. QB Tyrod Taylor has 443 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s so far. The ground game has been a strength, averaging 135 YPG, with Carlos Hyde leading the charge with 105 yards and two TD’s. Cleveland has been decent defensively as well, allowing 21 PPG. The pick: If not for some “back luck,” the Browns could actually be 2-0 to start the season. I think the home side opens up the playbook today as it lays everything on the line to try and secure the victory on the National stage. Darnold and company won’t be going down without a fight though. Play the “over.” |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 56 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in off an upset 35-14 road victory over Maryland. When these teams faced off last November 25th, it was Temple that ran away with the high-scoring 43-22 victory. While last year’s total flew well above the number, I think the 2018 match-up will produce a much lower-scoring combined final score. The teams: Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and it’s allowing 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s to this point. He also has 109 rushing yards and another major score on the ground. Shamari Brooks has 310 rushing yards and four TD’s. Last week the Golden Hurricane was out gained 409-339. The Owls opened the season 0-2, before last week’s surprise victory over the Terps. Temple had a ridiculous 429-195 yardage edge in the end. Overall the Owls average 27 PPG and allow just 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead has 256 yards on 54 carries. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tulsa has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses, while temple has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 17 as the favorite. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis fell 34-23 to the Bengals at home in its opener, while Washington took care of business in Arizona 24-6. The Colts hit the road for the first time in a hostile environment this season and I think they’ll have an even more difficult time moving the ball in Week 2. Indianapolis played better defensively than what last week’s score would indicate and I think the unit will have opportunities today as well. This number is high. The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 319 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. No. 1 RB Marlon Mack was out and he’s questionable for this one as well. WR TY Hilton had just five catches for 46 yards. As mentioned off the top, the defense was decent despite the final score, as one of the TD’s conceded was a defensive one. Washington QB Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD passes last week. The run game stole the show offensively though with 182 combined, led by Adrian Peterson with 96. The defense was outstanding, holding the Cardinals to only 213 yards and 1 of 8 on third down attempts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indy has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six as a favorite in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills OVER 42.5 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry here after Week 1 setbacks. Both clubs looked horrible defensively last weekend and I think that’ll be the case here again as well. This number is a little low. The teams: The Bills lost 47-3 last week. Josh Allen has been named the starting QB in Week 2 after Nathan Peterman imploded. LeSean McCoy only had 22 yards last week, after finishing with over 1,100 last year. Clearly the only way the Buffalo offense can go is up. The defense gave up 369 yards, including allowing Baltimore to go 6 for 6 in the Red Zone. LA QB Philip Rivers will be looking to exploit the Bills’ weak pass defense. The Chargers were decent defensively last year, but the unit struggled in Week 1 and I think it’ll have its hands full here against a Buffalo offense that’s out to atone itself. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 12 of its last 15 at home. With each side pushing the pace and hungry for a win, I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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09-15-18 | Hawaii v. Army UNDER 62.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The teams: Hawaii is already 3-0 with wins over Rice, Navy and Colorado State. The Warriors have defied the odds to this point, most recently smashing Rice 43-29 as a 17 point favorite this past weekend. QB Cole McDonald was 22 of 33 for 319 yards and four TD’s last week, but I think Hawaii finally stumbles here against the Black Knights opportunistic defense and in this difficult road venue. Army is 1-1 after losing to Duke its opener, before then bouncing back with a victory over Liberty. The Black Knights rushed for 449 yards last week and they’ll be looking to duplicate that performance here. The last thing Army wants to do is get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Warriors, so expect the home side offense to try and maintain possession for as long as possible, whenever possible. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Hawaii has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Army has seen the total go “under” in interestingly seven of its last ten games played in the month of September. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60 | Top | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The home side will be eager to return to form here after a tough setback at Navy last weekend, eventually succumbing 22-21. Georgia State will be out to score an upset here and to atone for a lacklustre 41-7 loss to NC State last Saturday. This is the first ever meeting between the schools and I think each is going to be a wide open affair. The teams: Georgia State scored the first TD of the game last week, but then it was shut down and outscored by 41 points the rest of the way. QB Dan Ellington threw for 194 yards. In his team’s season opening win over Kennesaw State he threw for 187 yards. But the Panthers defense is atrocious in the early going, most recently allowing the Wolfpack to throw for 426 yards. In fact the secondary returns just one starter. Memphis smashed FCS Mercer 66-14, but it couldn’t hold on to a 21-9 lead over the Black Knights last week. Darrell Henderson had three TD runs, including 78 yard and 59 yard scampers. QB Brady White was 15 of 25 for 145 yards. The defense gave up 264 total yards. Last year the defense was a weak point, ranked 117th in the nation. The pick: The Tigers were particularly poor against the pass last year as well, ranked 122nd by allowing 282.1 YPG. Memphis didn’t have to worry about Army passing, but it’s going to have its hands full today with a Panthers team looking to air it out early and often. This one just screams “shootout.” Play the “over.” |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important early season divisional match-up. Both teams enter off high-scoring Week 1 victories, but on the short turn-around on Thursday night I’m expecting more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.” The teams: Baltimore opened the season with a 47-3 destruction of the Bills. The Ravens’ starters were rested for a great deal of the Week 1 blowout, including Joe Flacco, who was 25 of 34 for 236 yards and three TD’s. The Ravens’ defense was downright dominant though, holding the Bills to only 83 rushing yards and 70 passing yards. Cincinnati opened the year with a come-from-behind 34-23 road victory over the Colts. QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 28 for 243 yards, two TD’s and an interception. Last year the Bengals finished last in the NFL with only 280.5 yards of offense per game, so clearly this Week 1 victory was a step in the right direction. However, Dalton and company, especially WR AJ Green, have struggled against the Ravens’ ferocious defensive attack in the past and I think that’s going to be the case again here tonight also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 against the division, while Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 16 as an underdog. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: LA catches a break here after Jon Gruden traded defensive star Khalil Mack to the Bears for some draft picks. The Rams had the league’s highest scoring offense last year, so we can absolutely expect the visitors to push the pace and open up the playbook from start to finish. The teams: LA went 2-2 in the preseason, but it would rest most of its starters over those four games. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley are back and they now welcome dangerous WR Brandin Cooks to the mix. The Rams spent a ton of money on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, but I think the unit will struggle on opening night. Jordy Nelson will be the main WR in Oakland now that Michael Crabtree is gone. Amari Cooper will also be hoping for a much better season after totalling just 680 yards in 14 games last season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine Week 1 home games when the total in the contest is between 47 and 50 points. With LA pushing the tempo of this one and with the home side having no choice but to match pace, I’m banking on this one flying “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 48 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 153 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important early NFC North match-up on Sunday Night Football and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I think it’ll be the defenses from each side which will define this contest in the end. Chicago hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2010, while Green Bay missed the postseason last year with QB Aaron Rodgers injured. The teams: Chicago got Khalil Mack from Oakland and he’s going to make an immediate impact on an already stacked defensive uint: “We’ll get to see where he’s at mentally and then physically we’ll have a practice and get an idea, and then we’ll just kind of have to listen to his feedback where he’s at,” head coach Matt Nagy said earlier in the week. “We told him, communication is imperative here.” The defense also has standouts Akiem Hick and CB Prince Amukamara. Rodgers is back under center for Green Bay and he looks primed for another productive campaign. However note that the Pack head into the 2018/19 campaign after massive organizational turnover, because of last year’s losing effort. Rodgers is fantastic, but there are still a few questions that need to be answered for Green Bay in my opinion. The pick: I think the Packers are a bit one-dimensional and the new look Bears offense is going to be able to slow it down and take advantage. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “run and gun” shootout. Play the “under.” |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys v. Panthers OVER 42.5 | Top | 8-16 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which fell well below expectations last year collide on opening day on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points appear plentiful. The teams: Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are gone, but the Cowboys are in good hands with Dak Prescott and a fully healthy and ready to go Ezekiel Elliot. Dallas has a lot of questions on both sides of the ball, but the offense is going to be given the green light to “air it out” all day long this afternoon. The Panthers went 3-1 in the preseason, dropping only their Week 4 contest. Cam Newton had a strong camp and I think he’ll have a big day here against a Cowboys’ defense which also has many question marks surrounding it. Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and Devin Funchess highlight a deep overall offense for Carolina. The pick: Newton looked good under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s schemes in the pre-season, which doesn’t bode well for the visitors today. Prescott and company will be forced to match pace and in the end, look for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with something to prove in 2018/19 collide on Opening Night and in my opinion, scoring is going to be plentiful. The Falcons lost to Philadelphia 15-10 in the NFC Divisional playoffs back on January 13th and they’ll obviously be looking to avenge that setback. Philadelphia has question marks all over the place, but the defending champs are still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The teams: Last year the Falcons led the league in dropped passes with 30. QB Matt Ryan will be expecting better from his talented group this year. Ryan had 4,095 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards, but just three major scores. ATL still possess one of the best “one-two” RB combo’s in Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman as well. The Eagles allowed only 19.7 PPG last year, but note that they had just eight INT’s overall. Carson Wentz? Nick Foles? Whoever starts under center for Philadelphia, the home side is in good hands. In three playoff games Foles completed 72.6 percent of his passes. Jay Ajayi is the main RB now, along with Corey Clement, who is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. The strength of the offense is the line though and it will be once again this year as well with the return of Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters. The pick: The last thing Atlanta can do here is play to the Eagles “pace.” Look for the high-flying visitors to push the tempo from start to finish and expect this total to soar “over” as it comes down the stretch. |