Big Ben is no longer the formidable opponent he once was, but he is still the only show in town as far as the Steelers’ offense goes. The pass game is definitely middle of the pack, but the Steelers just don’t run. Period. They are 31st in the NFL in rush yards, and 30th in rush 1st downs. They don’t defend the run well either; their rush defense is 31st on average, and abysmal in their last two games. What the Steelers do well on defense is defend against the pass (12th rated and improving) and get to opposing Qbs (2nd and improving). How does this stack up against the Chiefs? The Chiefs can run, and will if pressed, but it is usually a second choice. The Steelers’ offense may shift the Chiefs to more of a run-first style of offense, so likely no 413 yards passing this week and maybe a lot less points scored. Other than last week, the Chiefs have held opposing teams to less than 9 points a game over a 5 game stretch. They are a “bend but don’t break” defense. Roethlisberger may have some success against them but I don’t see him stacking up the points. Considering the matchup and the Chiefs’ ability to keep the score down, I think the game’s total is high. Take the Steelers and Chiefs to go under the total.

The Browns have had a tough season to date but are starting to get healthier.  One thing that hasn't suffered lately is their defense, giving up less than 16 points on average over their last four games.  The Browns are in desperation mode, and while you can't expect Rodgers and Co. to take it easy today, they know where they are headed already.  The Browns have one of the very best running backs in the league and the Packers can be run against. The best way to control Rodgers is to keep him off the field.  The Browns are tough against opposing QBs, both in yards allowed and in pressuring QBs.  The Packers have not protected Rodgers particularily well lately.  Mayfield may be back today but hasn't practised, and the Browns are very poor at scoring on the road.  Look for this game to produce less points that expected.  Take the total to go under..

Georgia State/Ball State

While both teams looked decent defensively at times down the stretch of the regular season, that side of the ball was each their weak points.

Georgia State is 7-5. It's coming off a 37-10 win over Troy. QB Darren Grainger is a dual-threat that finished with 1,512 yards passing, 16 TD's and four INT's, while also rushing for 524 yards (4.3 YPC), and two rushing TD's. 

Defensively though they allow 27.7 PPG. Drew Pitt and the Cardinals will look to take advantage. Pitt finished with 2,248 yards passing, 17 TD's and finve IT's this year (also had 150 rushing yards.)

However, like their opponent today, the Cardinals weakness this season was on the defensive side of the ball where they allowed 26.5 PPG on average (the Bulls were 9 of 18 on third down in their last game and they converted their only fourth down attempt as well.) 

Expect these two well-rested sides to push the pace from the start. This one flies over the number. 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on over. 

The Titans are up against a very hot 49ers team with first place in the AFC south now in jeopardy. They have not been scoring enough points to win with any regularity. Off a disappointing loss, and with far too many turnovers lately, is there any likelihood that the Titans can bounce back? The Titans are still a rush-first offense and are running for yards with success, but they are up against a solid 49ers rush defense. Their pass offense is very weak, down 80 yards per game over their last 3 starts when compared to their season average. It is uncertain if one or both of WRs Brown or Jones will be starting this week. Tannehill has been sacked 37 times this year and will likely spend more time on his back as the 49ers are 10th in the league and improving in sacks.

The 49ers have seen growth in their rush offense lately but are up against a very tough Titans rush defense that has been lights out in their last three starts. Garoppolo has silenced a few of his critics with some decent numbers lately. He is accurate and has cut down on hi turnovers. The 49ers have protected him well this season. Of note, the 49ers are best in the league in red zone scoring %. That said, the Titans’ pass defense has been much improved lately, allowing fewer yards and Tds against. Their sack totals have also picked up.

Given their recent success, the 49ers have not faced a really tough defense lately. The Titans are hard to score against, but are only averaging 15 points per game over the last 4 games, and I don’t expect a significant improvement this week. Take the 49ers and Titans to go UNDER THE TOTAL ON THURSDAY

Vikings/Bears

The Bears have scored 52 points in their last two games, a huge improvement over their lowly 17 point scored average. The Bears have a solid run game, but the improvement has come in the passing game, with good increases in passing yards and points in the last three games. Unfortunately the Bears defense, already 28th rated, is much worse over their last three games.

The Vikings haven’t had a low scoring game since week 4. They are 10th and climbing in points scored, with an average of 30 points in their last three games. Like the Bears, their points allowed, never low, has climbed to 29 over the last three games.

On the field, the Vikings defense is 26th and 27th rated against the pass and run respectively, but they are top in the league at applying QB pressure. Luckily for the Bears, Field has handled the blitz well and has the advantage of scrambling impressively. The Bears defense struggle against the run but generally handle the pass well. The Vikings put up monster numbers with the run offense last week and have shown improvement well above average with their run game lately. Against Cousins, the Bears face a well protected, dynamic, and accurate QB, with high TD totals and low interception and sack numbers. Cousins could very well pick the Bears offense apart, just as Rogers did last week.

Lets see, both teams are scoring more on offense and allowing more on defense. It doesn’t take rocket science to see the potential for a high scoring affair. This game is a definite total over selection

Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers

Entering this game, the Raiders are 3-0 with significant victories against the Ravens and the Steelers. They also beat the Dolphins in a thriller last week. In each of those games, they scored at least 26 points with an average of 30ppg. The Raiders have also seen the total go OVER in 8 of their last 9 games dating back to last season against AFC opponets.

For the Chargers, they'll come in very confident after beating Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Herbert has looked excellent so far and his top 2 WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have also looked very strong. As long as Ekeler keeps providing with his rushing and catching, the Chargers will definitely score a lot in this one. 

Last year, when these two teams played (twice of course,) both games ended with 57 points. I expect another game with a similar, if not higher number here tonight. Take the OVER. 

Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers 

Things didn’t look so good for Aaron Rodgers after week 1. But he definitely showed the world that he’s not done yet after last weeks performance against the Lions.  They scored an easy 35 points and definitely could have scored more in the win. This week, Rodgers returns to his hometown and I believe he is bound to do something special yet again.

Off the win against the Eagles, the Niners are now 2-0 to start the year. Last week they didn’t score that much. But they looked strong offensively and could have put up more than they did. In week one they went way OVER the total and I expect another high scoring game.

Both teams are really good offensively and I expect a shootout in this one. Take the OVER.

Detroit @ GB.

Two divisional opponents off Week 1 losses collide in Week 2.

Detroit's offense actually looked quite good in last weeks' 41-33 loss to the 49ers (especially considering the way the 49ers' held the high-flying Eagles to just 11 points on their own field on Sunday after they scored 32 in their Week 1 win at Atlanta.) Jared Goff was 38 of 57 for 338 yards.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers uncharacteristically struggled in their 38-3 season-opening loss at New Orleans (interesting though, that game was played at Jacksonville instead of New Orleans because of Hurricane Ida. Traveling to Jacksonville is tough, but especially on short notice. That was a game that completely favored the Saints. New Orleans looked poor in its loss at Carolina on Sunday.)

Rodgers though is going to benefit greatly from being in friendly confines and facing a poor Lions' defense which just conceded 41 points to San Francisco (which could only muster 19 in yesterday's win at Philadelphia.)

Look for these experienced "gun-slingers" to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the over.

NY Giants @ Washington

We played against the Giants in Week 1. They only scored 13 points. Washington wasn't much better. The Football Team managed just 16. Both games were comfortable under winners.

The Giants are 9-0 to the under after an ATS loss. Giants also 6-0 to the under after allowing 350 or more yards. WFT 4-0 to the under after a loss. Twenty of the last 28 meetings have produced unders. 

Two struggling offenses. Two capable defenses. A low-scoring division rivalry. Take the Under.

Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Thursday Night prime-time Opener between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers went well over the posted number.

The Sunday Night prime-time matchup between the Rams and the Bears also sailed over the posted number.

Now on Monday night we have a couple of high-scoring AFC teams read to battle it out and everything points to these high-scoring prime-time games continuing.

The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year. The Raiders averaged 27.1. Baltimore was one of the best defensively last season in conceding only 18.9 PPG, but the Raiders were one of the worst in allowing 29.9.

The Raiders and Ravens have played over the total the last five times they've met. Expect that high-scoring streak to continue here in their first game of the 2021/22 season. The play is the over the total 10*

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that were pretty good defensively last year, and inconsistent on the offensive end collide in LA tonight. 

The bottom line for this one for me though is that each starts a new quarterback in a new system and I think that despite both being veteran's, that it'll take time for both Andy Dalton of the Bears and Matthew Stafford of the Rams to form chemsitry with their respective offenses. 

Each side will be focused on establishing the run while on offense. We can expect a heavy pass rush from each defense as well.

When we consider what each of these team's game-plan will be in Week 1, we have to conclude that the under is the correct call.

Vanderbilt @ Colorado State

The Commodores scored only three points in their Week 1 game. That was a very disappointing loss against East Tennessee State. Vanderbilt was favored by more than 3 touchdowns. That showed just how bad Vanderbilt really is. Scoring won't be any easier this week.

The Rams were better than Vanderbilt but they weren't good either. They lost against South Dakota State, scoring only 23 points. Vanderbilt rushed for 2.7 yards per carry, CSU ran for 3.1 ypg. 

Commodores 4-0 to the Under L4 non-conference games. Rams 5-0 to the Under L5 vs. losing teams. Take the UNDER

Fresno State @ Oregon

Fans of offense are in for a treat. Fresno State averaged 32.8 ppg and 479 ypg last year. This year's offense is loaded and already scored 45 points and 538 yards against UConn its opener. 

Oregon has 9 returning offensive starters. They have an experienced QB, throwing to excellent receivers, playing behind an experienced offensive line. The Ducks scored more than 30 points in every game but one last year. 

Ducks are 6-2 to the over last eight times they faced a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 5-1 to the over last six times they were off an ATS win. Go with the Over. 

The set-up: The Browns played to a high-scoring victory on the road in Pittsburgh, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time producing that same energy here in this difficult road venue. The Browns played terrible defensively last time out and the last thing they'll want to do here in my estimation, is to turn this into another "track meet" and try to hang with Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs on their own field. That's never going to work. It worked against Pittsburgh, but if the Browns are going to pull off another unlikely upset, they'll have to run the ball first while on offense, while hoping to win the field position battle as well. 

The pick: KC has an underrated defensive unit this year. It's been burned a few times, but overall the Chiefs once again exceeded their season win total and that was due in large part to an improved defensive unit. I'll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. From my calculations, this number is indeed a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Browns/Chiefs.

The set-up: What more can be said about these two teams which literally hasn't been said a million times at this point by every talking head and so called expert out there? The strengths and weaknesses and cast of characters, including coaches, is well known even to casual College Football fans. These teams are both really similar as well as far as their numbers. Frankly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win and cover this contest. I'm not here to give you individual player breakdowns, as I think that's meaningless at this point. I'm here to tell you why these two teams are going to play to a lower-scoring game, instead of a higher-scoring one.

The pick: The extra time off between games is going to have a bigger detrimental effect on these offenses in my opinion. This can still be a higher-scoring game, and stay "under" this sky-high total, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. These are two of the best defenses that each of these offenses has seen all year and I expect those units to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is too high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER OSU/Bama.

The set-up: Baltimore is out to get revenege here against a team that it's had difficulties with over the last few years. The Titans upset the 14-1 Ravens in last year's playoffs 28-12. I'm having a hard time getting a firm read on a side in this one, but all signs point to this one being more of a "chess match," in my opinion, rather than a "shootout." And that's because I expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from each side while on offense today. 

The pick: These team's also faced off back on November 22nd and Tennessee managed a 30-24 victory, but that came in overtime. These are admittedly a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but I'll also point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 road games in trying to revenge an OT home loss in which it allowed 30 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Ravens/Titans.

The set-up: Both teams come in having played to many "unders" this year. Ball State has seen the total go under in four of its last five, including two straight, while San Jose State has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of seven this year, including in its last five straight. These two non-conference opponents get ready to battle in the Arizona Bowl on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, these trends of lower-scoring games is going to end, as I look for these two non conference opponents to open up the playbook and air this one out. 

The pick: Ball State averages 34.3 PPG, which ranks 26th in the nation, while the Spartans allow just 17.86 PPG, ranked 13th. San Jose State has faced some suspect competition this year though to pad those stats. Spartans' QB Nick Starkel has 16 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. San Jose State's offense averages 30.9 PPG, so expect SJSU to keep pace with the high-flying Cardinals as well. This one has "over" written all over it.

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Ball State/San Jose State.

The set-up: The first game between these teams went well "under" the number in the Eagles' 23-9 home victory. Ben DiNiucci was under center for Dallas in that one, but Andy Dalton will be directing the Cowboys tonight. Philly has gotten a spark from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, and while many may think this'll be a classic "shootout," I expect this instead to be a very tight, lower-scoring battle. Philly's defense is definitely superior, but Dallas has come a long way in that department over the last three weeks. I expect each offense to be committed to the run throughout as well. If this was Week 10, I'd expect more of a shootout, but in this crucial end of season contest, this one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than "offensive fireworks."

The pick: From a trend-based standpoint it sets up well for a lower-scoring contest, as note that Philly has seen the total go "under" in four of its last six on the road. Also note that six of these team's last eight in the series have fallen below the posted number as well. For all the reasons listed above, look for this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Eagles/Cowboys.

The set-up: WKU has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS and the total has gone "under" in four of its last five overall. Note that ten of WKU's 11 games this year have had a total of 56 or fewer points scored. On the flip-side though, WKU has played pretty good defensively down the stretch, as it's conceded only 14.3 PPG over its last four.

The pick: Georgia State has given up an average of only 18.3 PPG over its last three games, so these are two teams which come in firing on all cylinders on the defensive side of the ball. With so much time off in between games, I believe these offenses suffer and I look for these defensive units to become the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high.

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER WKU/Georgia State.

The set-up: The Bucs are still in contention for a playoff spot, but they haven't clinched yet. Tampa is dealing with injury issues right now, but with a Bears loss this weekend, the Bucs will clinch. The only motivation that Detroit has today is try and play spoiler for Tampa here, as it was eliminated officially from contention last weekend. And frankly, the thought of disturbing the Bucs playoff chances isn't going to be any sort of motivating factor whatsoever for this Lions team, who I think will quickly throw in the white towel after the first quarter. 

The pick: The Bucs are one of the better defensive clubs, allowing just 22.9 PPG, No. 1 against the run by allowing just 77.8 PPG. The Lions are a throw-first team anyways, but it makes their already one-dimensional offense, even more so. I think Tampa goes up early, but then runs this clock out as it tries to avoid any more injuries. This number is a tad high.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucs/Lions.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Vikes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a 33-27 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Clearly the last thing that the Vikings want to do is try to turn this into a track meet with the Saints, instead they'll be leaning heavily on RB Dalvin Cook from start to finish. The Vikes have lost two in a row and they're basically eliminated already, as they'll have to win their last two games and get plenty of outside help. One game at a time though. Kirk Cousins was decent this year with 29 TD's and 13 INT's, but it was Cook who led the league in rushing. 

The pick: Minnesota is poor defensively and the the Saints are one of the best on the offensive side of the ball, but I look for the Saints to also lean heavily on their run game today as they try to break a three-game slide. Brees returned from COVID in last week's 32-29 loss to the Chiefs and while New Orleans was the first team to clinch a playoff spot, it still has a chance to lock up the NFC South. I think Alvin Kamara will play a big part in the home side's offense today. The big difference this year though for New Orleans has been its defensive play, as outside of the Chiefs loss, the Saints had been fantastic over the previous five games (21.2 PPG conceded on average.) Look for both teams to run the ball first and then expect this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Vikes/Saints.

The set-up: This game is being played in Frisco Texas due to COVID restrictions. Both teams are defensively challenged and I expect a shootout from start to finish. The Warriors finished 4-4, while Houston was 3-4. The Cougars have plenty of offensive talent which I expect to run up this score. Hawaii won't have the luxury to sit back and wait for Houston to make a mistake. The Warriors average 26 points per game, but their passing attack is ranked a respectable 49th with 243.4 yards per game. Hawaii is going to have to put the foot on the gas throughout as well, as note that it's defense was terrible, allowing 29.3 PPG. 

The pick: Houston's defense is porous as well. The Cougars have allowed 19 touchdowns to opponents this year in just 29 red zone trips. Note as well that defensive star Payton Turner (who finished with 17 tackles and five sacks this year), has opted out of playing in this game. Clayton Tune likes to throw the ball, he averages 261.7 passing yards per game. The lowest point total that Houston gave up this season was 21. Suffice it to say, I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later!

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Hawaii/Houston.

The set-up: Louisiana Tech receives the bowl bid despite the 4-4 record. LA Tech has struggled thoughout the season on the offensive side of the ball, averaging just 325.1 YPG on the ground. LA Tech was poor defensively as well, conceding 34.3 PPG. 

The pick: Georgia Southern doesn't score a lot either, averaging just 26.3 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing just 22.3. Note as well that the Georgia Southern offense will be without both No. 1 and No. 2 QB's, as Shai Werts and backup Justin Tomlin are out for this one. LA Tech struggles at the best of times to move the ball and now they face one of the best defenses they've seen all year. Expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring New Orleans Bowl once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* play on the UNDER Georgia Southern/Louisiana Tech.

The set-up: Tulane likes to run the ball. Nevada likes to throw the ball. Tulane was poor defensively and Nevada was in the middle of the pack. The Green Wave are led by their two RB's in Stephon Huderson and Cameron Carroll. QB Mike Pratt had a sharp 18:5 TD:INT this year. Overall Tulane averages 35.4 PPG. 

The pick: Nevada and Carson Strong average 29.9 PPG. The Wolfpack won their first five games and then faltered down the stretch, losing their last two. This is a big opportunity to end the season on a high note and against a secondary which was terrible against the pass. Note that Strong leads a passing attack which ranks tenth in the country. I believe each offense will move the chains efficiently and I expec this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Tulane/Nevada.

The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. 

The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over."

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals.

The set-up: App State has closed out each of the last five years with a Bowl win and it's heavily favored to do so again on Monday afternoon. The Mountaineers finished 8-3 this season after a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern last week. UNT is 4-5, most recently entering off a 45-43 shootout victory over UTEP on Friday. While each team just finished playing to a higher-scoring victory, I think this Bowl contest at a weird time of the day and with little time to prepare, definitely sets up as a lower-scoring battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. App State averages 31.8 PPG and it allows just 19.3. UNT averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 41.3. 

The pick: The Mountaineers are in no fear of losing this game outright and I don't expect them to run up the score either. App State is going to run the ball and control the clock as it looks to close out this difficult campaign with one more victory. I think UNT will struggle to move the ball in the second half of this game and that'll help in contributing to push this total "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* play on the UNDER App State/UNT.

The set-up: Miami is the No. 7 seed. Buffalo has now clinched the AFC East, but the Fish still have plenty to play for here. Most recently Miami fell 33-27 to Kansas City. New England looks to regroup after falling 24-3 to the Rams last Thursday, it's now 6-7 overall. The Patriots have been hit or miss all year and last week they were definitely a "miss." New England will now need to run the table, while also getting outside help if it has any shot at making the playoffs. While the last five NE games have gone "under" the number, I expect today's contest to finally sneak above, as both teams are hungry for a victory here and I expect that determination to translate into production on the field. 

The pick: Both Tua and Newton have something to prove as well. Each QB is playing for a position on a team for next season, so it's a "game within a game" here. Also note that the Patriots have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last 11 road games after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a tad low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pats/Fish.

The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." 

The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This  number is a tad high in my opinion.

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns.

The set-up: New Orleans would love to keep the win streak going, but one has to wonder if this is a trap game or not?! New Orleans is the first team to qualify for the playoffs after last weekends win and it's won its last two games without Drew Brees under center. This also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as the Saints welcome the defending champion Chiefs next weekend. New Orleans has been superb on both sides of the ball, but Philadelphia is coming to play a full quarters today as it is in a "must win" situation. Even at 3-8-1 the Eagles are still in contention for the Division title, but they can't afford any more losses. In fact, things are so dire that they've decided to insert rookie Jalen Hurts into the line-up in hopes of jump-starting this offense. Hurts has weapons around him and I like the rookie to do just that. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU victories in a row, while the Eagles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 after two or more SU losses. From a situational standpoint, this one definitely screams "over!" 

This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Saints/Eagles.

The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive, higher-scoring affair. The Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs after the NFL extended the playoff pool to seven teams for each conference. New England is coming off a 45-0 win over the Chargers, so it's been able to stay in the state, which is a huge situational advantage for the visiting side here. Cam Newton only had 69 yards passing last weekend, but the run game had 180 yards and the special teams play was incredible. 

The pick: The Rams and Patriots both have Top 10 defensive numbers, but each come in off high-scoring victories. LA smoked the Cardinals 38-28 last time out and it now has the lead in the NFC West over Seattle due in part to the tie-breaker. I expect these two motivated sides open up the playbook and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Pats/Rams.

The set-up: FAU had a week off and returned to action last weekend and promptly fell 20-3 to Georgia Southern. FAU is now 5-2 overall and 4-1 in Conference USA standings. Southern Mississipi comes in fresh and focussed after its last two games were cancelled because of COVID concerns. The Eagles are just 2-7 and they last fell 23-20 to UTSA, but Southern Miss won't be rolling over in this nationally televised contest. Neither teams scores a lot and each is decent defensively (especially FAU, which concedes only 12.4 PPG), and those facts have definitely helped in driving this O/U line down. However, I think it's too low considering the overall situation.

The pick: Also note that Southern Miss has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while FAU has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 22 after scoring three or less points in a loss in its previous outing. I look for this one to fly "over" as the game comes down the stretch.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER FAU/Southern Miss.

The set-up: Dallas is on the ropes. It's 3-8 and it's coming off a poor 41-17 home loss to Washington on Thanksgiving day. The Cowboys need to win this game. They basically need to win every game if they have any shot at making the playoffs. One thing's for sure though, if the Cowboys lose today, they're season is essentially over. I expect Dallas to give its best shot today. The only way this team is going to win is to put the pressure on Baltimore and hope that it makes a few mistakes. 

The pick: LaMar Jackson is back under center for the home side and he'll look to take advantage of this Cowboys defense which is ranked dead last in the league. Baltimore needs some wins as well and it has every reason to run up the score even if it has a lead as it tries to regain chemistry which it's recently lost. I expect both teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Dallas/Baltimore.

The set-up: This is an important non-conference game for both teams. The Bills are 8-3 and the 49ers are 5-6. Buffalo beat the Chargers 27-17 last time out, while the 49ers beat the Rams 23-20 on the road. Buffalo is going to try and push the tempo of this one, as it comes to the West Coast averaging 27.2 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Josh Allen has emerged this season as one of the top QB's, as he has 3,028 passing yards, 22 TD's and eight interceptions. 

The pick: The 49ers are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt after a slow start, due mostly to injury and COVID. San Fran snapped its three-game losing streak last time out as its finally adjusting on the offensive side with Nick Mullens under center. So far Mullens has 1,642 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. San Fran averages 23.7 PPG and it allows 23.1, but note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in four of its last six vs. Buffalo. The Bills have seen the total fly over in four of their last five on the road and all signs point to these strong trends continuing here. This number is a little low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Buffalo/San Fran.

The set-up: Both teams are in search of a victory. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina. App State bounced back from that loss to smash Troy 47-10 last weekend. QB Zac Thomas and the Mountaineers raced out to a four touchdown lead in the first half and then never looked back. Louisiana Lafayette has won five in a row after crushing UL Monroe 70-20 last weekend. Quarterback Levi Lewis had five touchdowns in the rout. App State's defense matches up well against the Cajuns option attack though, as it's allowing only 139 rushing yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams run the ball extremely well and in this very important contest, I expect each to run from start to finish. While both teams have played to some very high-scoring affairs of late, I expect this one to finally fall under (note that six of these team's last eight against each other have indeed fallen "under" the number.) 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/App State.

The set-up: Seattle has lost three of its last five and it needs to keep winning here to maintain its lead. The Hawks have some hope though, as Arizona is coming off a loss in New England. These teams last played a playoff game last January and Seattle won 17-6. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here though, as each team truly is desperate for a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a second-straight loss, falling 22-17 to Cleveland at home. Overall the Hawks average 31.8 PPG. Seattle's defense has been poor though and the secondary has some key injuries today, including S Marquise Blair and Lano Hill and cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Neiko Thorpe are out.

The pick: Philly is only averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 25.4. I'll point out though that the Eagles have seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring 19 points or less in a loss in their last outing. More than anything, this sets up great as a "shootout" from a situational standpoint. Both teams have weapons on offense, and I expect them to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is low.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Hawks/Eagles.

The set-up: Everything on paper here screams "under," but I'm going the other way and expecting the undermanned Saints to "man up" and push the pace from start to finish. New Orleans defense looked good against the Falcons last weekend, but I think the unit will struggle in this difficult road venue. Denver comes in off a 20-13 win over the Dolphins, so this is a team which has not even come close to throwing in the towel yet. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 13 points or less in a victory, while New Orleans has seen the total fly over in five of its last six on the road. This number is low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Saints/Broncos OVER.

The set-up: Arizona scored a high-scoring OT victory at home over Seattle a couple weeks ago. Both teams have been playing to very high-scoring games this year, but on the short week, I think that trend changes. Seattle desperately needs a bounce back victory here. The Hawks' once vaunted defense is long gone, but this is a big opportunity for that unit to bounce back as well. It's been raining heavily in the Pacific Northwest for the last couple of weeks and that's going to play a factor here as well. 

The pick: Both teams will be out to establish the run from start to finish while on offense on this blustery night in Seattle. Note that the last four Cardinals road games have gone "under" the number as well. I believe the conditions are definitely right for more of a "chess match," than a run and gun "shootout." This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Hawks.

The set-up: Boise State enters off a terrible 51-17 home blowout loss to BYU, while Colorado State enters off an upset 34-24 win over Wyoming on Thursday. These teams have met nine times and the Broncos have won all nine games. That includes last year's 31-24 victory in Fort Collins. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Colorado State is 1-1. The Rams are somewhat "lucky" though, as they did allow 465 total yards of offense last week, but they managed to hold in the red zone somehow, while also forcing three Wyoming turnovers. 

The picks: The Broncos were forced to play with their third-string QB vs. BYU and it showed. Cade Fennegan finished with 187 yards and two TD's. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side as it looks to alleviate the pressure from Fennegan. This one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout" in my opinion. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER CSU/Boise State.

The set-up: Akron is coming off a 58-13 loss to WMU, while Ohio enters off a 30-27 setback to Central Michigan. Akron has lost two straight in this series. Last week Zach Gibson had 125 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The Zips struggled defensively last week, but the unit catches a bit of a break facing this run oriented Ohio offense. 

The picks: Bobcats' QB Kurtis Rourke had 231 passing yards and two TD's in last week's loss, while De'Montre Tuggle had 79 rushing yards and a TD. Ohio was caught flat-footed defensively last time out, but once again, the Bobcats defense catches a big break here facing this poor Akron offense. While the total went over in both team's first game of the year, and while the over has hit in the last three in this series, the overall circumstances finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER in Akron/Ohio.

The set-up: Buffalo is 6-2 and Seattle is 6-1. This is an important non-conference contest for both teams, who look to maintain their leads in their division and conferences. The Seahawks have averaged 34.3 PPG and they've allowed 28.4. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" in several games this year, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in ten of their last 13 after scoring 35 points or more in an ATS/SU win at home in their last outing. 

The picks: The Bills offense has regressed somewhat the last two weeks, and the defense has improved slightly. The result is 2-0 the last two games, most recently a 24-21 win over New England, in which Cam Newton fumbled the ball away in the final seconds with a chance for victory. Overall though the defense was great against Newton, holding him to 174 yards passing and no touchdowns. Buffalo averages 24.8 PPG and it allows 24.9. Buffalo has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 16 after B2B SU victories. This number is a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Hawks/Bills.

The set-up: The Sooners are out of their fourth straight win here. There's no reason to run up the score in the second half though. It's true these teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the overall situation that each school finds itself in coming into this contest will finally lead to a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma smashed the Red Raiders 62-28 last weekend, but I don't expect a repeat performance here, despite the Jayhawks' issues on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas is looking to get off the schneid, entering at 0-6, and looking to atone for a poor 52-22 setback to No. 17 Iowa State last time out. 

The pick: Another situational factor that leads me to believe that Oklahoma will take the foot off the gas in the second half is scheduling. The Sooners enjoy their bye-week next week, before finishing off the season vs. Oklahoma State, at WVU and at Baylor. The total has also gone "under" in four of these teams last six in the series. I base my picks on many things, but my O/U selections are primarily based on "situations." This one meets several of my personal criteria. This number is high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Kansas/Oklahoma.

The set-up: These teams met twice last year and the 49ers won both games at home. The Packers have now lost two of their last three games and shoddy defensive play is to blame. Dalvin Cook torched the Packers on the ground last weekend for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Thankfully for Green Bay, it faces a depleted 49ers team this weekend. Aaron Rodgers continues to be a bright spot for Green Bay, as he has 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: The 49ers lost 37-27 at Seattle last weekend. They also lost the services of their two best offensive players in TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Green Bay struggles against decent pass coverate and San Francisco has an elite pass covering unit. The last thing San Fran can do here is obviously try to turn this into a "shootout" and expect to win vs. Rodgers. This is a common sense play for sure, as in my opinion, everything points to more of a "chess match," than a "shootout." 

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Packers/49ers.

The set-up: I love this play. Both teams have come off some very high-scoring affairs, but I think that this game sets up as much more of a defensive affair finally. Las Vegas was just spanked 45-20 by the Bucs at home and it'll be out to get back to its winning ways, facing a Browns team which comes in off a 37-34 OT win over the Bengals, but which lost top WR Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. I expect the home side to get out and establish the run early and often here. Situationally, I believe this absolutely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout." 

The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 35 points or more in a SU OT victory in its last outing, while Las Vegas has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last 11 after allowing 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger loss in its previous outing. This number is much too high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Vegas/Cleveland.

The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring games this year, but I look for this Monday night contest to be more of a wide-open affair. The Bears continue to win, they most recently got past Carolina 23-16. LA had won three in a row before a 24-16 loss at San Francisco last weekend. Both teams only ask their QB's to "manage" games, so Jared Goff and Nick Foles are a wash here. These are two "gun slingers" though who will be given the green light to air it out on the national stage. 

The pick: Strong run games and strong defenses are what define these clubs in the early going, but note that Chicago has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS victories, while LA has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after a loss in which it score 17 or less points in. I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bears/Rams.

The set-up: This was originally going to be the Sunday Night game, but there were a couple Covid related issues which caused the league to delay this game and then re-schedule to an afternoon slot. Regardless, Tampa looks to build off its big win at home over the Packers, holding Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown, along with forcing three interceptions. THe last thing Tampa wants to do though is turn this into a shootout with the Raiders, who upset the Chiefs 40-32 in their last outing. Tampa's defense is elite and the run game is starting to fire on all cylinders. Look for Brady to be more a game manager than gun-slinger today. 

The pick: Finally note that the Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after their bye and after scoring 40 or more points in a victory in their previous outing. This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bucs/Raiders.

The set-up: These teams play in a horrible division and despite the Eagles being 1-4-1 and the Giants being 1-5, both still mathematically have a shot at winning the title. Philly is winless at home and New York is winless at home. The Eagles did win both matchups last year. New York posted its first win of the year last week in a 20-19 victory over Washington. That was despite being outgained 337 to 240. QB Daniel Jones was an unremarkable 12 of 19 for 112 yards. He has three TD's and six INT's this season. New York is 31st in the NFL in rushing as well. 

The pick: The Eagles come in off a slim loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia has been competitive in defeat and I expect it to look to control this game from the outset. Wentz is only averaging 233.5 YPG and he has a career low completion percentage of 58.7. Both teams are struggling offensively and each has been decent defensively. Look for the short week to amplify those trends and look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Eagles.

The set-up: Both teams are undefeated. Playing during the pandemic is weird enough for these players, but having to shift their schedule to play on Tuesday night is unprecedented. I think this will effect offensive chemistry from both sides. Both teams defensive numbers are in the middle of the pack, but I look for each side's offense to concentrate on establishing the run. Strictly from a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note though that the "under" has hit in four of these teams last five in the series. Tennessee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 after its bye week (while not technically its official bye, Tennessee did not play last weekend due to covid issues), while Buffalo has seen the total dip below the number in ten of its last 15 after three or straight up victories in a row. This total is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bills/Titans.

The set-up: Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I think that this MNF contest sets up as more of a defensive contest. The Chargers are 1-3 after collapsing late last week and falling 38-31 to the Bucs. New Orleans is now 2-2 after beating the Lions on the road 35-29. Chargers' rookie QB Justin Herbert had 290 passing yards with three TD's last weekend, but regression seems imminent in this difficult road venue. LA's defense has been a strong point despite the crummy second half vs. the Bucs last week, allowing only 23.8 PPG. 

The pick: The Saints are going to have to figure out things on the defensive end if they have any hopes of competing this year. Brees is down a few weapons this weekend as well, as  TE Jason Vander Laan, WR Michael Thomas, TE Cole Wick are all out. That means that Brees is going to have to lean on Alvin Kamara to chew up clock and keep this aggressive Chargers' pass rush honest. No Monday Night shootout here, this one screams under!

This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Chargers/Saints.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-2. I'm expecting a defensive affair. 15 projected starters returned for the Cardinals this year, so the team was expecting to improve upon its 8-5 showing from last season. Louisville will be desperate here to avoid an 0-3 start in ACC play. QB Malik Cunningham had 22 TDs and only five INTs last year, but he's already thrown five picks over his first three games this season. Despite getting outgained 376-223 to Pittsburgh last week, Louisville still only lost by three points. Louisville averages 29.7 PPG and it allows 30.3. 

The pick: The Yellow Jackets have struggled defensively as well in conceding 33 PPG, but their offense has been worse in averaging just 19 PPG. Georgia Tech's offense is still a work in progress though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this focussed Louisville side. GT has yet to score 20 points in a games this year, while Louisville has seen less than 57 total points scored in two of its first three this season. Neither QB has been great, so it's time for these defeneses to finally shine. This number is a tad hight.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Louisville/Georgia Tech.

The set-up: Both teams are 3-1, but the Bears played three "cream puffs" to open the season. Chicago fell 19-11 to the Colts last weekend though and now it faces another tough defense in Tampa. I expect the home side to play it conservatively here as it looks to take the pressure off of Nick Foles. The Bears are only averaging 21.3 PPG so far this season. 

The pick: The Bucs have looked pretty good on both sides of the ball since their Week 1 loss to the Saints, but after Tom Brady rallied his team for a 38-31 win over the Chargers last weekend, throwing four second half TD's, I think that the visitors come in "gassed" here. A short week for Brady, means that Tampa will also be looking to alleviate pressure off their older QB and establish the run game from the outset. This one sets up great as a lower-scoring "chess match" in my opinion. 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Bucs/Bears.

The set-up: The Falcons are 0-3. Atlanta has sizeable leads in each of its losses, only to choke it away late. This is a dejected Falcons side and I think it'll have difficulty summoning up the energy to go toe to toe with the red hot Packers on Monday night. Matt Ryan has been a bright spot for Atlanta, as he has seven TD's and just two INT's. The Falcons defense has been terrible, allowing 36 PPG. 

The pick: Aaron Rodgers and company don't need to "pad stats" after a 3-0 start though. Green Bay is in a good spot and it doesn't need to run up this score to win this contest. From a situational stand point, I think this number is much too high, but also note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three-games or longer unbeaten streak. These are two "gun-slinging" veteran QB's going head-to-head, but look for a more conservative game-plan from each. This number is a tad high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Falcons/Packers.

The set-up: The spread and total in this game have moved quite a bit over the last couple of days. The Jets were a 3-point underdog to open, but now they're a -2 point fav at some places. This total opened at 40, it dropped to as low as 39.5 and now it's 41.5. None of these line movements is overally significant though and regardless of all of that anyways, I think this total is much too low as I expect it to blast past early in the second half. I think it sets up well from a situational stand point. Defenses on both sides are terrible. Both teams are desperate for a win after starting 0-3. The National stage adds incentive to perform as well. When you add it all up from a situational stand point, I absolutely think this number is too low. 

The pick: Also note that Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last ten road games after three straight SU losses. This number is indeed low, the play is the over.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Broncos/Jets.

The set-up: I think Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will love nothing more than an opportunity to run up the score and destroy Cam Newton and the Patriots on Sunday night. New England looked "ok" in its home win over the Dolphins, but its patchwork defense is going to be in trouble tonight. That said, there's no question that Newton and the Patriots' offense will have their opportunties tonight as well.

The pick: As note that the Hawks allowed 506 yards of offense to the Falcons last weekend and 25 points overall. Wilson had 322 yards passing and four TD's himself. This one has "over" written all over it!

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Pats/Hawks.

The set-up: Last year OSU won this contest 40-21 on the road and I expect a similar final combined score here as well, as it sneaks "under" this sky-high number. Interesting to note, that Tulsa actually ahd a 21-20 lead at half time, but OCU scored 20 unanswered and locked down defensively in the second half for the big victory. Tulsa was only 4-8 last year and its offense revolves around its two senior RB's in Corey Taylor II and Shamari Brooks. QB Zach Smith had 3,279 yards passing last year, with 20 TD's and nine INT's. 

The pick: The Cowboys were 8-5 last year and averaged 32.5 PPG. OSU returns NCAAF's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard as well. Spender Sanders had 16 TD passes and 11 INT's. Also note, the Cowboys return their entire defensive core. Two years ago OSU allowed 30-plus PPG. Last year it allowed 26.8. Now the Cowboys are once again expected to take a big step in a positive direction defensively. And that's bad news for this run first Tulsa side. This number is too high, the play is the under.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Tulsa/Oklahoma.

The set-up: I like the Packers offense, but "chemistry" is going to be an issue early on for both teams in my opinion. The Packers offense is a well oiled machine and I think it can calmly control the pace of this contest vs. the Vikings' defense, which has many new faces. Expect to see a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for the home side, who had 1,135 yards and 13 TD's last year. 

The pick: Note that the "under" has hit in 15 of Minnesota's last 23 at home and in its last five at home vs. the Packers, while Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten overall dating back to last season. I expect a highly competitve football game, but one which falls well below the number once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Packers/Vikings.

The set-up: Navy was 11-2 last year, but it enters having lost dynamic play-making QB Malcom Perry. Dalen Morris is now in charge of running the triple option, but he'll obviously need at least a few games under his belt to gain chemistry. Expect to see a heavy dose of Navy's two top RB's from last year in Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith. The defense was also a strength last season, allowing just 22.3 PPG. 

The pick: BYU was 7-6 last year, but the Cougars should definitely improve with 15 starters returning, including eight on offense. That includes QB Zach Wilson, who will look to improve upon his 11:9 TD:INT. Look for BYU to also lean heavily on its running game here on offense, as its top three RB's return this season. Also note that the defense was strong for the Cougars last year, allowing just 25.5 PPG and that unit should be much stronger with 12 of its top 14 tacklers returning. This one screams "under," with both teams looking to establish the run while on offense. This number is high.

The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER BYU/Navy.

The set-up: The Titans have been giant killers in the second half of the season. Certainly that's been the case in the Playoffs so far as well, knocking off both the Patriots and the Ravens. The Chiefs mounted an incredible come from behind blowout victory over Texans last weekend, but at one point there was considerable panic from all KC fans. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is scary. But the Titans counter that with great defensive play and by running the ball a lot while their offense, behind the bruising play of RB Derrick Henry. 

The pick: In fact, Tennessee exposed the Chiefs' weaknesses already this year with a 35-32 win in the regular season, as Henry went for 188 yards and two TD's on 23 carries. The Titans are excuting at a very high level and they haven't been "beating themselves." It's KC that's going to have to play another perfect game here if it wants to pull off another blowout win and I don't see that happening. I believe we're going to see a battle until the final moments, a "chess match" instead of a "track meet." Note as well that Tennessee has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road dog, while KC has seen the total dip under in both games that it's played in after scoring 40 points or more in its last game. This number is too high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Titans/Chiefs.

The set-up: Houston advanced after beating the Bills 22-19 last weekend. The Texans looked down and out in that one early with a 16-0 deficit, but the team turned up the pressure on the defensive side and then Deshaun Watson and the offense managed to get the job done. Watson had 247 passing yards and one TD. Clearly the last thing the Texans can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with Patrick Mahomes and company. Note that Kansas City’s rush defense ranked sixth in the league over the last three games of the season, allowing 87 rush yards per game. KC's pass defense was also No. 8 overall in the NFL this season. 

The pick: It's supposed to be cold and windy today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run game and also taking into account the improved play on the defensive end from each team, I think this afternoon's contest sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texans/Chiefs.

The set-up: Tom Brady and the Patriots have been terrible offensively over the last month or so, but they have a big opportunity to turn things around in the Wild Card. Do I think that Tennessee has a chance to steal this game in Foxborough? Of course I do, just look at what Miami did last weekend. The Patriots defense looks bad and so does it offense. The Titans won't be waiting for the home side to make the first mistake. They'll be looking to get an early score and then to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. New England isn't going to win another Super Bowl either if it can't get its offense producing. From a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: But note as well that the Titans have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 12 as an underdog int he 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including in three of four this year,) while the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four following a SU home loss. Look for this total to creep over this low number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Titans/Pats.

The set-up: Ohio finished 6-6 and Nevada was 7-5. The Bobcats needed to win their last two games to become eligible. Ohio put up 66 and 52 points over its final two games, but I expect a more conservative score here once it's all said and done. The Bobcats rely on their run game on offense, one which actually ranks 22nd in the country by averaging 216.5 YPG. The Wolfpack had their three-game win streak snapped with a loss in their finale. QB Carson Strong was a bright spot in defeat, throwing for 351 yards, one TD and no INT's. 

The pick: Ohio's defense also improve down the stretch and that unit is going to be tested throughout by the powerful run game of Nevada. Additionally note that Ohio has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after two straight wins by 21 or more points, while Nevada has seen the total dip below in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "run and gun shootout." This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Ohio/Nevada.

The set-up: Baylor is 11-2 and Georgia is 11-2. The Bears are the fifth ranked team in the country and the Bulldogs are the seventh. The Bears average 35.2 PPG and they allow 19.3. Georgia was in the Sugar Bowl last year and it lost. The Bulldogs will be especially motivated tonight. Georgia averages 31.2 PPG and it allows only 12.5, but I think the defense is pushed to the brink here by this Bears' high-flying offensive attack. 

The pick: Note as well that Baylor has seen the total fly over the number in three of its last four after two weeks or more of rest, while Georgia has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven neutral site affairs when the total is set between 41.5 and 45. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Baylor/Georgia.

The set-up: Virginia lost to Clemson in the ACC Title game and finished 9-4, while Florida wasn't quite as good as Georgia in the SEC, but still finishing 10-2. The Cavs fell 62-17 to Clemson in the title game, but overall UVA has been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 32.4 PPG and allowing 26.5. The Gators are averaging 33 PPG and allowing only 14.4. I think UVA is going to have difficulties moving the ball again vs. this Florida defense which is ranked among the best in the nation. 

The pick: Note as well that UVA has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or longer lay off, while Florida has seen the total go under in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Florida went over the number just four times this year and I don't expect that strong trend to change tonight. Play the under. 

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER UVA/Florida.

The set-up: The 4-11 Miami Dolphins are at New England to take on the 12-3 Patriots. Miami and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be out to play spoiler here, so expect the visitors to open up the playbook from start to finish on offense (Fitzpatrick had four TD's in last week's 38-35 win over the Bengals.) The Patriots destroyed the Fish 43-0 in Week 2 and I believe that Tom Brady and company will be looking to end the season on a high-note as well. Brady has been shaky over the last month and the Pats just 4-3 SU their last seven. With one last chance for a tune-up, I think Brady puts on an exhibition today. 

The pick: Miami has seen the total go over in four of five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent already this season, while NE has seen the total soar over in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 14.5 to 21 points range. Considering the situational and trend based factors listed above, I absolutely believe that this number is low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Miami/New England.

The set-up: Clemson is 13-0 and Ohio State is 12-1. If you're betting and watching and this game, then the overall story lines and cast of characters are well known to you. The strengths and weaknesses are also well known to even a casual NCAAF fan. I don't need to break down individual player matchups, because I don't think it's necessary. While both teams have been exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, both have also been unreal offensively and ultimately I think that the longer lay off will be more beneficial to each teams offense. The Tigers have averaged 54.2 PPG over their last six games and just put up 62 vs. a stingy Virginia defense in the ACC Title game. Not to be outdone though, Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the nation by averaging 48.7 PPG behind the strong play of QB Justin Fields.

The pick: Note as well that Clemson has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, while Ohio State has seen the total fly over the number in both games already this season in which it's had two weeks or more of rest in. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Clemson/OSU.

The set-up: These are two teams that want to actually win this game and I believe that focus and intensity will translate into offensive production on the field of play tonight. WSU is coming off a listless loss to Washington in its finale, held to just 13 points. Clearly this top 10 Cougars offense will be eager to get back on track here. Expect WSU to air it out early and often with dynamic QB Anthony Gordon today. 

The pick: The Falcons enter having won seven straight. Air Force has a top 40 offense and a top 20 defense. Donald Hammond III will have his opportunities today as well vs. a Cougars' secondary which allows nearly 290 passing yards per game. I think this has one has "track meet" written all over it.

10* play on the OVER WSU/Air Force.

The set-up: Pitt fell 26-19 to Boston College at home in its regular season finale, while EMU also lost its final game, falling 34-26 to Kent State. The Panthers though come in with zero momentum as they dropped their final two games of the year, including getting blanked by Virginia Tech in their second to last game. Pittsburgh averages only 20.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 21.8. 

The pick: EMU averages 29.1 PPG and it allows 30.3. With a month off to prepare for this one though, I think that Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi can contain the Eagles' offense. The Panthers will indeed look to control the clock throughout this contest while on offense and in a scenario like this, the "under" is the correct call in my opinion. 

10* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Pitts/EMU.

The set-up: The 7-5 BYU Cougars are in Hawaii to take on the 9-5 Warriors and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written all over it. The Rainbow Warriors were 6-2 in Aloha Stadium this year, including victories over Arizona and Oregon State. Hawaii eventually fell 31-10 to Boise State in the Championship Game, but I think that Cole McDonald and company will bounce back here with so much time off to prepare. McDonald finished with 3,642 yards and 29 TD's this season. Overall the Warriors average 33.6 PPG, while allowing 31.7. BYU won five straight before a listless 13-3 loss at SDSU. Like Hawaii though, I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will be beneficial to the offense, which averaged 39.8 PPG during the five-game win streak. Overall the Cougars average 28 points and allow 24.4 per game. 

The pick: Note as well that BYU has seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this year, while Hawaii has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four home games already this season when the total in the contest is set between 61 and 70 points. I believe the only game in town tonight will feature a lot of offense, and not much defense. Play the over.

10* play on the OVER BYU/Hawaii.

The set-up: The Cards destroyed the Browns 38-24 last weekend, their first victory in months. Suffice it to say, I think they'll have a more difficult time moving the ball this afternoon in the frigid Pacific Northwest. Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Kenyan Drake again here though as last weekend he rushed for 137 yards and four TD's vs. the Browns. With San Francisco's loss to Atlanta last weekend (although it managed the slim victory over the Rams), means that Seattle controls its own destiny in the NFC West. QB Russell Wilson has been the beneficiary of a strong run game this year and I expect the home side to control the ball/clock while on offense today as well. 

The pick: It works great from a situational stand point in my opinion, but also note that the Hawks have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten after scoring 30 points or more in their previous contest, while the Cards have seen the total go under in four of their last five off an upset win as an underdog. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Cards/Hawks.

The set-up: I'm expecting a hard-fought, but ultimatley lower-scoring game between these NFC rivals on Saturday night. The 49ers have a playoff spot locked up, but they're coming off a poor perfomance/loss at home to the Falcons. LA has its back against the wall, needing to win out after it most recently got dominated on the road by the Cowboys. The strength of LA though has not been on the offensive side of the ball this season, with QB Jared Goff taking a major step back, but rather on the defensive end where the unit has allowed 17 points or fewer in six of the last eight games. San Francisco has been unbelievable this year, winning big in New Orleans, but also looking poor at other times. The defense is banged up, but I think that Jimmy Garropolo and company won't try to push the issue here, as they look to sit back and control this one in all three phases. Situationally in my opinion, it definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: But note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in three of four vs. division opponents already this year, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight following a home loss. This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Rams/49ers UNDER.

The set-up: Last year CMU was 1-11, but this year they lost to Miami Ohio 26-24 in the MAC Championship game. The Chips were 8-5 and they enter this contest with a balanced offense, ranked 40th in the country in both passing and running. SDSU was 9-3 on the year and finished behind Hawaii in the MWC West. The Aztecs only allow 12.8 PPG, but I think the unit will take a predictable step back here after the long lay off. Clearly CMU is going to be out to push the pace as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone. QB Quinten Dormady is a senior for the CHips and he had 2,148 passing yards with a sharp 14:6 TD:INT. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that CMU has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as an underdog this year, while SDSU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as a neutal field favorite of seven points or less. This number is a tad low.

10* play on CMU/SDSU OVER.

The set-up: The 6-7 Indianapolis Colts can keep their wild card hopes alive with an improbable upset win today. How will Indy pull that off? Certainly not by trying to keep pace with Drew Brees and the high-flying home side. The Colts have lost four of five, but they'll be laying everything on the line tonight in an effort to pull off the victory. The offense is still without dynamic WR T.Y. Hilton. Indy has to play to its strengths here, with plenty of running and short dump passes by Jacoby Brissett. Of course, the strength of the Colts still lies on the defensive end. 

The pick: The Saints threw everything they had at the 49ers last week, but New Orleans came up on the short end of a high-scoring shootout. New Orleans' defense was exposed by the 49ers, but clearly the unit catches a break today facing the Colts much more conservative offensive game-style. Note as well that Indy has already seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records and in six of its last seven after three or more consecutive losses, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the number in five of its last six after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This number is high.

10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Colts/Saints.

The set-up: The Bills three-game win streak ended with a 24-17 loss at home to the Ravens. Buffalo is seeking its tenth win of the year for the first time since 1999, but the Bills will have their hands full with this Steelers team which enters having won three straight. Last week the Steelers got the job done vs. the Cards by running hte ball for 141 yards by committee. Pittsburgh also held Arizona to just 240 yards of offense. The Bills love slowing things down though and wearning out teams. Buffalo only averages 21.3 PPG, but it only allows 16.3. QB Josh Allen has 17 passing TD's and eight rushing. 

The pick: Note that the Bills have seen the total dip under the number in all six games they've played in as an underdog, while Pittsburgh has een the total go under in three of four as a home favorite this season. I'm banking on a classic hard-nosed, lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bills/Steelers.

The set-up: Eli Manning is back under center for the Giants, who enter at 2-10 and nothing to play for. Manning is purely playing for pride, but I think the future hall of famer is going to predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. The Eagles are on the ropes and need to basically "win out" the remainder of the season and get outside help to play the playoffs (5-7). Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has 20 TD's and seven INT's, but he's also been sacked 30 times. New York has 26 sacks. Philly only allows 91 rushing yards per game though, so the Giants' already one-dimensional offense is going to become even more so on the National Stage. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 as a home favorite, including in two of three this season. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Giants/Eagles.

The set-up: So why should we expect a "shootout" on the short week? Chicago isn't known for its offensive prowess and Dallas has been inconsistent on that side of the ball all year as well. Despite that though I think this number is low, as I expect these two still playoff hopeful sides to not sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Instead, I look for each to attack from start to finish. Chicago picked up a huge win over Detroit last week and at 6-6 its stil alive in the NFC playoff race. And for Dallas, it comes in off a putrid performance at home vs. the Bills and another loss here will be a major setback. At 6-6 the Cowboys still have a one game lead in the NFC East. 

The pick: Note as well that the Cowboys have already seen the total go over the number in four of five as a road favorite this year, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. These starting QB's have something to prove and if not now...when? Look for this one to go over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Boys/Bears.

The set-up: Seattle owns an 11-5 edge the last 16 in this series, including having won five straight. Clearly Minnesota has revenge on its mind. The Vikes come out of their bye in need of a win with a difficult schedule ahead. Minnesota will look to grind this one out in my opinion, as the Hawks allow 101.5 rushing yards per game and Vikes' RB Dalvin Cook already had 1,017 rushing yards and 11 TD's on the ground, along with another 455 receiving yards. 

The pick: Seattle will have seen the 49ers lose last night, so a victory here keeps it in pace for the conference title as well. The Hawks face a difficult task vs. a Vikings' defense which concedes only 94.2 RYPG. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten as a road dog, while the Hawks have seen it dip below the posted number in four of their last five after four or more straight SU victories. Two great offenses, but the situation and numbers both point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Vikes/Hawks.

The set-up: The Texans are in a dog fight in the AFC South, while at 10-1 the Patriots are well on their way to defending their Super Bowl title once again. Houston comes in off a crucial win over the Colts and I think DeShaun Watson can put the pressure on Pats' QB Tom Brady, who has looked poor over the last month. Overall Brady has averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt passing. The Patriots are going to need Brady to step up here though, as several key players on the defensive side are dealing with a flu bug this week. 

The pick: Brady faces a Texans' secondary which has been ravaged by injury though, so this sets up well for the veteran to bounce back. Watson and the Texans though will smell the blood in the water and I expect the home side to come out firing here as well. Neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this year, but I believe the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this contest has this one looking like a "shootout," instead of a "chess match." Play the over.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Patriots/Texans.

The set-up: 3-8 Bowling Green meets 6-5 Buffalo with nothing on the line. Yes the Bulls could be eligible for a slightly better bowl game with a win today, but after becoming eligible last time out, a mental lapse is inevitable in my opinion. Bowling Green is just 3-8 and can't even use the role of spoiler as motivation today. Bowling Green was killed 66-24 by Ohio last time out and I have a hard time seeing it mustering that much offense this time around. Buffalo smashed Toledo 49-30 in its last game. 

The pick: The Bulls really do need one more win to solidy their positioning, but this is a contest in which it can sit back and control the tempo. Bowling Green is a run first offense and Buffalo ranks in the top ten in stopping the rush. Also note that four of Bowling Green's five games on the road this year have fallen under the number already. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle this time around.

10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bowling Green/Buffalo.

The set-up: Mississippi State is 5-6 and it needs to win this game to become eligible. Ole Miss is 4-7 and it's now out to play the role of spoiler. The Egg Bowl looks like a "shootout" out to me this year. Mississippi comes in off a game in which its defense just allowed 58 points to LSU. 

The pick: Mississippi State completely dominated this game last year, winning 35-3. This year Ole Miss is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air, so QB Tommy Stevens is primed for a big performance on the National stage in my opinion. Note that Ole Miss has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year after playing a game at home, while Mississippi State has seen the total eclipse the number in three of four this season following a SU victory. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Mississippi/Mississippi State.

The set-up: Both teams are eligible for a bowl. Liberty is 6-4 and Virginia is 7-3. I'm expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game between these two non-conference opponents, each looking to improve its bowl positioning. The Cavs won this game last year, but neither team was able to break the 400 yard barrier on the offensive side. Virginia also has to be wary here not to "look ahead" to its game vs. Virginia Tech in its regular season finale (note that three of Virginia's last five wins came by single digits.) 

The pick: Liberty QB Stephen Calvert has 23 TD's and just three INT's this season, but I think he'll have a difficult time here from this aggressive Virginia pass rush that can not afford to look past its opponent today. Note as well that Liberty has seen the total dip under the number in all four games it's played in already this year as the underdog, while Virginia has seen the total dip below in its last four after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This total is a tad high.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Liberty/Virginia.

The set-up: The Bears are 4-5 and the Rams are 5-4. Each has struggled mightily this year, but both have an opportunity to get things heading in the other direction with a victory here today. It's an important game for both struggling teams and I envision this one being a wide open "shootout," rather than a low-scoring "chess match." LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 17-12 loss to the Steelers last week, while the Bears snapped a four-game slide with a 20-13 victory over the Lions. While both those games were low-scoring and while each has struggled to put points on the board, I think the stage is now set for Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky and Rams' pivot Jared Goff, to shine. 

The pick: Chicago is getting a balance on offense now with its run game, as David Montgomery has 235 yards and three TD's over his past three weeks. Trubisky himself will benefit here from a Rams' defense which is allowing 240 yards per game through the air. The Bears are even worse against the pass though, allowing 253 yards per game through the air. Neither team is going to win this game on the ground. As stated off the top, I think the stage is now set for these two QB's to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over.

10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the Bears/Rams OVER.

The set-up: New Orleans is 7-2, but it comes in off a terrible 26-9 loss at home to The Falcons. Tampa Bay is only 3-6 and it broke a four-game slide with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals last time out. Yes the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards in the NFL this year, but they catch Drew Brees clearly still working through some issues. I have every confidence that Brees will eventually return to his normal dominating self, but I believe he will in fact struggle again here today. Note that Tampa has the BEST rushing defense, which turns the Saints into an incredibly one-dimensional team. 

The pick: The Saints are also better against the run than pass, but after last week's poor effort, New Orleans also catches a break here facing Jameis Winston, who enters with a poor 17:14 TD:INT. Note that the Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last seven as a road favorite, while TB has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect these two struggling teams to continue to struggle with consistency and play the under.

10* play on the Saints/Bucs UNDER.

The set-up: It's a big game for both teams. Cleveland picked up a win over the Bills last Sunday to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Another victory here on Thursday night vs. a red hot Steelers team which has won four straight will be paramount in keeping that dream alive. Pittsburgh has won four straight. Both teams have struggled to put points on the board and each has been carried by its defensive play to this point. But I think the narrative on that will change tonight on the short week. 

The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game (including 2-0 this year), while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in four of its last five following a home victory. So far these starting QB's have been terrible this year, but each will be given the green light to operate tonight. I think this number is just a little low.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Steelers/Browns.

The set-up: These are the top two teams in the NFC West. They're quite possibly the best two teams in the entire NFC overall as well. The 49ers are undefeated at 8-0, while Seattle is 7-2. Last week San Francisco's vaunted defense looked pretty ordinary in the 49ers closer than expected 28-25 victory in Arizona. Now the 49ers have to contend with another mobile QB, except this one is putting up MVP numbers and has a ton of experience. The Hawks aren't going to sit back and wait for San Francisco to make a mistake, they'll be going after San Fran's defense again at every opportunity. 

The pick: Wilson has 22 TD's and just one INT so far, so San Fran's defense isn't going to get too many opportunities anyways. I think from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in interestingly nine of its last 11 after a win by six points or less, while San Fran has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Hawks/49ers.

The set-up: The Cards are off a tough 28-25 home loss to the 49ers, while Tampa Bay lost a heart-braker in a 40-34 OT setback vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. While each club comes in off a high-scoring loss in its last action, I believe the stage is set for much more of a defensive affair in this one. Arizona is in third in the NFC West, but it's still won three of its last five games. The season is on the line here for the Cards essentially this weekend. Note that Cards' QB Kyler Murray has 2,229 passing yards with nine TD's and four INT's, while also posting 313 rushing yards. Also note that Murray has suffered 29 sacks. 

The pick: Tampa's lost four in a row and it hasn't won a game at home all year. Head coach Bruce Arians is an offensive minded coach and clearly he's not going to be happy coming into this one. Arians won't go down quietly though. Tampa QB Jameis Winston has 2,407 passing yards with 16 TD's and ten INT's. Winston has suffered 30 sacks this year. Look for the home side intstead to lean heavily on RB's Peyton Barber (277 yards, three TD's) and Ronald Jones Jr (381, three TD's), while on offense. Finally note that Arizona has already seen the total go under the number in three of its four games on the road this year, while TB has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a home favorite. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Cards/Bucs.

The set-up: It's a big game for both of these hungry AFC sides. The Chargers are 4-5 and the Raiders are 4-4. Funnily enough, the Chargers could be heading to London next year, while the Raiders are on their way to Vegas. LA though is coming off back-to-back wins over the Bears and Packers and with its season essentially on the line, it's safe to say that Philip Rivers and company won't be "sitting back" and waiting for the home side to make a mistake. Melvin Gordon missed the first few games because of a contract dispute for LA, but the big RB is now finally back into "game shape" and it's opened things up considerably for Rivers to properly operate. 

The pick: The Raiders' defense is injured and it gave up more than 400 yards and three TD's to the Lions in their latest outing. Note that Oakland has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. DeShaun Watson torched the Raiders' secondary and it gave up six TD's to Aaron Rodgers the week before that. Derek Carr is also going to be given the "green light" to air things out as Oakland's offense will once again have to carry the load this week. I think these two gun-slinging QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Chargers/Raiders.

The set-up: Miami Ohio won last year's contest 30-28 and I expect a similar hard-fought and ultimately higher-scoring game here as well. That victory snapped a five-game win streak in the series for Ohio. Miami Ohio is 4-4 and 3-1 in Conference play and it comes in confident after winning its last two games, including a 23-16 road victory over Kent State in its most recent. Ohio is also 4-4 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, most recently pulling away for a 34-21 victory over Ball State. The winner will take over first place in the MAC. Brett Gabbert is the QB for the RedHawks and he has 1360 passing yards and four receivers with 100 receiving yards. Note that the Bobcats allow 446.5 YPG on the defensive side. 

The pick: Ohio though has scored 78 points over its last two games (both victories) and I expect the home side to open up the playbook and push the pace again here as well. Bobcats' QB Nathan Rourke has 1,743 passing yards with ten TD's and five INT's so far. Note that Miami Ohio has seen the total go over the number in its last four after two straight wins over a conference rival, while Ohio has seen the total go over in 11 of its last 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL BEATDOWN on the OVER Miami Ohio/Ohio.

The set-up: Has New England been "tested" this year on the defensive side of the ball? So far the Patriots are putting up historic numbers defensively, but many pundits claim that they've yet to face a "real" offense. Baltimore's versatile pivot Lamar Jackson definitely is a challenge for any team, but I still believe that the Pats' unit will be more than "up for it." Note that Baltimore may be 5-2, but it's schedule certainly hasn't been "murderers row" to this point either. And will rest lead to rust? The Patriots are pounding out convincing wins each and every week, but the Ravens will have to quickly try to regain their form after the extra time off. Clearly the home side will have to get out and push the pace of this one if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset vs. the Pats' strong defense today. 

The pick: Note that New England has seen the total in five of its last seven as a road favorite of three points or less, while Baltimore has seen the total soar over in six of its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight. The overall situation combined with these strong O/U trends make the "over" the correct call here.

10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Pats/Ravens.

The set-up: The San Jose State Spartans are 4-4. Note that that's more victories than their last two season's combined. San Jose State needs two more wins to become eligible and I expect the home side to open up the playbook as it looks to pull off the upset. Boise State is 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country, but it'll be out to rebound here after a 28-25 loss to BYU last weekend. 

The pick: San Jose State QB Josh Love has been "under the radar" all season, as he comes in ranked No. 2 in the conference in passing yards and in eight games he's only thrown three INT's. The Spartans though are allowing the second most yards in the conference defensively (442.9), so Love has had to push the pace almost every weekend. Boise State has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 on the road, while San Jose State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after a road victory. The numbers and situation point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* play on the OVER Boise State/San Jose State.

The set-up: The last few Monday/Thursday games have been terrible matchups and this one follows suit. With nothing to play for though, I think the Fish simply go through the motions tonight and I look for the Steelers to "control" this one while on offense, instead of trying to run up the score and "run" this downtrodden visiting side off the field. Miami is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for this one. The Steelers beat the Chargers two weeks ago and then they had their bye week. Mason Rudolph is back after suffering a concussion scare for Pittsburgh, but he'll be asked to do nothing more than to manage this game vs. the winless Dolphins, who are now in the hunt for a few top playoff picks. 

The pick: Note as well that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a road loss, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after covering the spread in two or more straight games. I'm banking on a low-scoring affair on Monday night.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Fish/Steelers.

The set-up: The Packers come in off a big 41-24 win over the Raiders at home, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is a big question mark this weekend and if he does play, one has to wonder how effective the dynamic pivot really will be? Matt Moore is a "clock manager," so expect to see a heavy does of LeSean McCoy and the running game from the home side will on the offensive end. 

The pick: The Packers' strength this year has been on the defensive side of the ball though and Moore is clearly going to be under pressure here as well. Additionally note that GB has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while KC has seen the total go under in seven of its last eight after having lost two of its last three games outright. This one has defensive battle written all over it, play the under.

10* play on the UNDER Packers/Chiefs.

The set-up: New England is 6-0 and New York is 1-4. The Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 home win over the Giants, while the Jets enter off their first victory of the year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. I expect a more conservative style of play from the Pats in this contest though as they look to avoid the upset and to "look past" these suddenly confident Jets. New York only allows 358 total yards of offense, with 262.2 through the air and a paltry 95.8 on the ground. 

The pick: The strengh of the Jets is indeed on the defensive side of the ball and while the Patriots have an unreal offense, it is in fact their defense which is also "stealing the show" in New England this year. So far the Pats allow only 234.7 YPG this season, which includes an average of 161 through the air and only 73.7 on the ground. Note that New England has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 20 on the road and in 14 of its last 19 as a road favorite, while the Jets have seen the total dip under the number in nine of 13 as a home underdog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Patriots/Jets.

The set-up: Baltimore is ranked 17th on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens though have a big question mark in the WR position this week with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown listed as questionable. The Seahawks are getting unreal play from QB Russell Wilson, who has 16 TD's so far and no INT's. The Hawks defense isn't what it used to be, but so far it's been better than average by posting 12 takeaways YTD. 

The pick: Note that Baltimore has interestingly seen the total dip under the number in 11 of its last 15 after having won two out of its last three games SU, while Seattle has seen the total go below the posted number in 11 of its last 17 as a favorite. This number is high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Ravens/Hawks.

The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. 

The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii.

The set-up: Tennessee is 2-3 and Denver is 1-4. Most likely neither team will see the playoffs. That said, each still has a shot if they can win this game today. This is an important game for both sub-.500 teams and as such, I look for more of a wide open affair. Last week the Titans lost 14-7 to the stingy BIlls. The Broncos saved their season (mathematically) with a 20-13 road win over the Chargers this past Sunday and I expect them to build off that performance with their best effort at home so far. 

The pick: Both teams are ranked in the lower half on the offensive side of the ball, but I think that Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota push the pace of this one on the road, similar to their Week 1 destruction of the Cleveland Browns. Joe Flacco and Phillip Linday come off their best performance for the Broncos and there's no reason not to think that they won't be given the green light here as well. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road dog of 7 points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. The situation points to this total flying over this low number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Titans/Broncos.

The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU.

The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon.

The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State.  App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette.

The set-up: The Colts are 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0. KC managed a 34-30 road win in Detroit last time out, while Indianapolis got caught looking ahead to this game after last week’s upset loss at home to the Raiders. I think a similar thing is going to happen here to the now content home side and while I’m not predicting any outright upsets or anything, I do think that the Chiefs come out and try to “control” this one, rather than run their opponent off the field with a frantic pace from start to finish. And clearly Jacoby Brissett and company can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to beat the high-flying Chiefs at their own style of game. Instead, the visitors will also definitely be out to “control” this contest while on offense. So from an overall situational stand point, there’s no question non my mind that this one sets up as more of a defensive chess match, than a wide open shootout. 

The pick: However also note that Indy has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 after one or more SU losses, while KC has seen the total dip under the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite of ten points or more. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Colts/Chiefs.

The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. 

The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State.

The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. I’d consider myself primarily a “situational” handicapper. And that’s definitely the approach I take when looking at Over/unders in all sports. I do indeed feel this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The short week isn’t going to help either team obviously. LA is coming off an atrocious loss to Tampa Bay at home, unable to slow down Jameis Winston and company defensively, while also failing completely on the offensive side. Note that Jared Goff threw three INT’s last week and the run game produced only 23 yards total. Goff threw the ball 62 times! If the Rams have any hopes of getting back on track, clearly they have to establish the run game. 

The pick: Seattle’s three wins have come against the Bengals, Steeler and Cardinals. Are the Rams better than these teams? Probably. Seattle had a complete meltdown at home to New Orleans two weeks ago, so clearly it won’t be looking past or taking anything for granted today facing co-division leading LA this evening. As stated off the top, from an overall “situational” stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a lower-scoring under. But note that the numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that LA has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous game, while Seattle has seen the total go under in four of its last five after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense and to limit its overall mistakes and when also taking into account these strong trends/stats, everything points to the under as the savvy call in this one.

10* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rams/Hawks.