Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-25-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park this afternoon, and both teams are coming off a loss. I'm expecting to see a pitcher's duel in the Motor City, with two capable starters on the hill today. |
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06-17-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
The Detroit Tigers will head to Cincinnati for the second leg of this home and home series, and tonight's game will feature two of the best pitchers in the major leagues. Neither team has been great offensively, and it's likely that we see a low scoring pitcher's duel here in Cincinnati tonight. 3. X-Factor - The Reds have a long history of playing low scoring games when Cueto pitches in Cincinnati, the under is 22-6-3 in Cueto's last 31 home starts. |
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06-16-15 | Oakland A's v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The San Diego Padres spent plenty of money this off-season in an attempt to bolster their offense, and so far it looks like money well spent. San Diego is third in the National League in scoring, thanks to the big bats of Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. They host the Oakland A's at PETCO today, and I think the total looks a little low considering both teams rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored, and each team turns to the back end of their rotation. 2. Kazmir On The Road - The Over is 6-1-2 in Kazmir's last 9 starts as a road favorite. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-15-15 | Oakland A's v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The San Diego Padres spent plenty of money this off-season in an attempt to bolster their offense, and so far it looks like money well spent. San Diego is third in the National League in scoring, thanks to the big bats of Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. They host the Oakland A's at PETCO tonight, and I think the total looks a little low considering both teams rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored, and each team turns to the back end of their rotation. 2. Derek Norris - He arrived in San Diego via the trade that sent Hahn the other way, and he leads all National League catchers with 39 RBIs. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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05-11-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves for the opener of a three game set at Great American Ball Park Monday night. They split a four-game set in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago as the Braves won the opener of that series 5-1 with the same pitching match-up as tonight. I expect quite a few more runs to be scored in this game and I'm playing the over. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Braves will hand the ball to Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) who is coming off a complete game shut out against the Phillies on May 5. He was tagged for three runs on six hits over seven innings against the Reds in his last start prior though and he was 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati last year. The Reds will counter with Mike Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) who is coming off back-to-back dominant performances after first hurling eight scoreless innings at Atlanta followed by another eight scoreless innings at Pittsburgh, surrendering just a combined total of eight hits. He is 4-2 in seven career starts against the Braves with a 2.03 ERA, but keep in mind that Atlanta has averaged 5.6 runs per game over its last five.. 2. Bullpens - Neither pitcher can expect much back-up from the bullpen as Cincinnati's has compiled the worst ERA in the majors on the season (5.47 ERA) while Atlanta's has not done much better sitting fourth from the bottom with a 4.76 ERA. 3. X-Factor - Brandon Phillips is 6-for-17 with a homer against Miller over previous at bats. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*) |
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05-02-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Last night's meeting between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins saw just one run scored as the White Sox prevailed in a 1-0 victory. The first game in this four game set saw a total of 14 runs though, and I expect to see plenty of action over the plate in Game 3 today as well. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (0-1, 18.00 ERA) who'll make his second start of the year today just coming off the disabled list with a right elbow inflammation following his season debut in a 11-0 loss at Detroit. He was charged with six runs on six hits over just three innings in that game and is likely to be in for more pain here as he's 0-2 with a 5.92 ERA in four starts against Chicago over his career and with the current White Sox roster batting a combined .324 over 142 at bats against the right-hander. The White Sox will counter with Hector Noesi (0-2, 5.23 ERA) who'll make his third start of the season after surrendering six runs on eight hits over a combined 10 1/3 innings in his first two outings. He faced the Twins over 4 2/3 innings in his season opener as he allowed two runs while walking six and he's posting a 4.32 ERA against Minnesota over his career. The current Twins roster is batting .290 over 131 at bats against Noesi. 2. Trends - 10 of the last 13 meetings have gone over the total and the over is a convincing 9-1-1 in the Twins last 11 games as a home favorite and 4-1 in the White Sox last five away from home. 3. X-Factor - Minnesota's bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors on the season as its relievers has posted a combined 4.11 ERA over 70 innings so far. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*) |
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05-01-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 0-8 | Push | 0 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been swinging hot bats of late, putting up a total of 21 runs over their last two games alone. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been rather effective as well coming off a three game set against the Giants where they scored a total of 16 runs and I expect another slug-fest at Dodger Stadium tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The D'Backs will hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa (2-1, 4.68 ERA) who has given up a fair amount of runs over two road starts on the year already. He was extremely poor away from home last season as well, going 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA over 10 starts. Carlos Frias will toe the slab for the Dodgers making his first start of the year after hurling 2 1/3 innings as a reliever. He finished last season with a 6.12 ERA over 15 outings, two starts, and I'm not convinced he will be up for the challenge here. 2. Trends - The over is 5-1 over the last six meetings in L.A. and 23-8-1 in Dodgers last 32 home games overall. 3. X-Factor - The Dodgers ranks near the top of the majors with 32 homers on the year, with 19 coming at home. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go over the total (10*) |
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04-30-15 | Washington Nationals v. New York Mets OVER 7 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 115 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
The Washington Nationals have scored 26 runs in consecutive wins at Atlanta, and they head to New York tonight to begin a new series with the Mets. With the Nats apparently heating up at the plate, I think we can expect another high scoring game against the Mets tonight. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (8*) |
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04-29-15 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins are tied at 1-1 in this three game set at Marlins Park as they come into the rubber-match tonight. None of the previous games in the set have seen more than seven runs, and I doubt this contest will be any difference as I think we'll have an interesting duel on the mound. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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04-23-15 | Atlanta Braves v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
The Braves will wrap up this three game series with the Mets on Thursday, looking to avoid a sweep with a win in the finale at Citi Field. We'll see a pair of quality pitchers face off in this pitcher friendly park, and the result should be another low scoring game. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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04-21-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total(10*) |
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04-18-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
The Cleveland Indians are really struggling at the plate so far this season, and they wasted another solid start from Cy Young winner Corey Kluber last night in Minnesota. The Twins aren't exactly ripping the cover off the ball either, and I think we'll see another low scoring tilt in Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. 2. Hitting - The Indians have only managed to score 29 runs so far, only Houston and Chicago have fewer among American League teams. The Twins have scored just one more (30 total). 3. X-Factor - Hughes was always a better pitcher in day games than he was under the lights, and he was 11-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 16 starts in the afternoon last season. |
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04-17-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The Detroit Tigers have certainly lived up to all expectations so far this season, but the same can not be said for the White Sox. These teams will play Game 1 of a three game set at Comerica Park on Friday afternoon. Both teams send their respective aces to the mound, in what might just be a pitcher's duel. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total .(10*) |
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04-16-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The Toronto Blue Jays won in a slugfest at Rogers Center in Game 3 of this series versus Tampa last night. Toronto will try to salvage a split with a victory in Game 4 tonight. It's not going to be easy, as the Rays starting pitcher for tonight's game has been awful tough in previous visits to Toronto. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) .(10*) |
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04-15-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 104 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
The Kansas City Royals will look to continue their hot start to the season in Minnesota on Wednesday, playing Game 2 of this three game series. The Royals won last night by a score of 12-3, remaining unbeaten with a 7-0 record. I think we'll the bats of both teams cool off tonight, with a pair of quality pitchers on the mound. Selection: This is a play on the Kansas City Royals .(10*) |
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04-13-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
The Milwaukee Brewers have won only one game on the season so far, but the way they've struggled at the plate it's not that big of a surprise. The team has mustered 16 runs over their first five games and will visit the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon, a team that has been involved in quite a few low-scoring contests so far and is sending its ace to the mound. I think this game has a lot factors pointing towards a low-scoring contest. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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04-11-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 7 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 106 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks have both split their first four games of the season, and Arizona took the first game of this series last night by a score of 4-3. The visitors are a heavy favorite to even the series tonight, with their ace on the mound. |
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10-28-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The Kansas City Royals will be fighting for their lives tonight as another San Francisco Giants win would make them the 2014 World Series Champions. We have seen plenty of runs in this series, but the books are still keeping the lines low and I think we're getting a good price on the over in Game 6. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to the Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA) who will have a ton of pressure on his shoulders tonight. The inexperienced 23 year old is making his second start in the World Series, as he gave up two runs on eight hits with a homer over 5 1/3 innings in the 7-2 win in Game 2. Ventura is relying on his fastball, which indeed is pretty good, but the problem is those can easily turn into home runs and especially the way the Giants have been swinging their bats lately. The visitors will counter with Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA), and with 12 years in the major leagues and pitching in the last World Series as well he is certainly not lacking any experience. That being said, he did surrender four runs on six hits over five innings in the last match-up versus Ventura six days ago, and struggled on the road the whole regular season going 4-8 with a 4.60 ERA. 2. The Giants offense - They have really been swinging hot bats recently, scoring 16 runs over their last two games. The Royals previously so hailed bullpen has started to show weakness, with Herrera and Davis conceding three runs over the last two innings in Sunday's 5-0 loss. 3. X-factor - Billy Butler has owned Peavy in previous encounters, hitting an impressive .424 over 33 at bats with three homers and three walks. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go over the total (10*) |
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10-22-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The hosts got off to a terrible start last night as James Shields conceded three runs in the first inning to open the 2014 World Series. The Giants could run away with the game eventually winning it 7-1, but I expect a tighter contest with much fewer runs tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA) who will make his first post-season start at Kauffman. The 23 year old Dominican has conceded five runs on 10 hits over 12 2/3 innings in two road starts after making an unsuccessful relief appearance at home against the A's in the Wild Card game. He was showing decent numbers at home during the regular season though, going 6-7 with a 3.21 ERA over 16 starts and certainly seems to be favored by pitching under the lights where his ERA was 2.86 compared to a 4.50 ERA in day-light games. The Giants will counter with Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA) who will make his third start in this playoff. The veteran has been successful in his previous two, surrendering only two runs on six hits over 9 2/3 innings of work. He has not conceded more than two runs in any of his last eight starts, and only one of his last five starts have gone over the total. 2. The Bullpens - The Giants bullpen has the best stats in the post-season, as San Fran's relievers are showing a 1.69 ERA over 37 1/3 innings only giving up seven runs while fanning 32. Madison Bumgarner went seven innings last night before Lopez and Strickland came on and each tossed one scoreless inning. The Royals bullpen is ranked third, compiling a 1.98 ERA over 41 innings conceding nine runs while fanning an impressive 42 batters. It was solid last night as well, with Collins and Fraser combining to hold the Giants scoreless through the final three innings. 3. X-factor - Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain has yet to figure Peavy out, going a combined 4-for-26 versus the right-hander. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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10-21-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -119 | 89 h 44 m | Show |
The San Francisco Giants are coming to Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the 2014 World Series. Both teams send their respective aces to the mound tonight, both backed by incredibly solid bullpens. Don't expect to see a slugfest here in Kansas City. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) to start off this World Series. Now, Shields have admittedly not had his best playoff of his career so far, but he is not called "Big Game James" for nothing and I expect him to deliver the goods tonight. His last home start was decent enough, as he limited the Angels to two runs on six hits over six innings, and he tossed nine scoreless innings conceding only four hits in his only start against the Royals this season, also that outing at home. The Giants will counter with Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) who has been nothing short of spectacular so far this post-season. He has two shutouts, and has given up only six runs (five earned) on 19 hits striking out 28 over 31 2/3 innings of work. It might suit MadBum fine to start this series on the road, as he was showing his best stuff away from home during the regular season going 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA over 18 starts. 2. The Bullpens - The Giants bullpen has the best stats in the post-season, as they're showing a 1.78 ERA over 35 1/3 innings, only giving up seven runs while fanning 30 and limiting their opponents to a .164 AVG. The #2 ranked bullpen? The Royals of course, who have compiled a 1.80 ERA over 35 innings, conceding seven runs fanning an impressive 36 batters and limiting opponents to a .170 AVG. 3. X-factor - KC's right fielder Norichika Aoki is still hitless against Bumgarner, going 0-for-13 lifetime. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go Under the total (10*) |
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10-15-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
The Kansas City Royals can complete the sweep against the Baltimore Orioles in front of their home crowd this afternoon. They claimed last night's game 2-1, and a similar scoreline is more than likely as the teams once again will enter the pitcher friendly Kauffman Stadium for Game 4. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Orioles will hand the ball to Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23 ERA) who had a solid finish to the regular season going 3-2 behind a 1.69 ERA in September, but this will be his first start since Sep 28. He was not successful in the six innings hurled so far against the Royals this year surrendering four runs (three earned) on six hits over six innings, and if we track back to 2013 his numbers were even worse, conceding six runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings of work. The Royals will counter with Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA) who's coming off a solid display at Los Angeles in the ALDS, as he allowed a pair of runs on three hits over six innings on Oct 2. This will be the first time the veteran lefty will face the Birds this season, but he has proved himself capable of keeping the Orioles bats quiet in the past showing a 1.93 ERA over eight starts lifetime. 2. Home cookin' - All of the Orioles last six post-season road games, and all of Gonzalez last seven on the road have gone under the total. Only one of the last eight meetings in KC have gone over the total. 3. X-factor - The Royals bullpen has been phenomenal lately. It worked four perfect innings last night, and has limited the opponents to a .179 AVG while registering a combined 1.59 ERA over the last 16 games. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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10-01-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Pirates are set battle it out with the San Francisco Giants for the NL Wild Card where the winner will be rewarded with a five game series against the Nats. I expect a low scoring game with both teams sending hot pitchers to the mound. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Giants will hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) who probably doesn't mind a trip to Pittsburgh at all. The 25 year old lefty has done better on the road than at home this season, going 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA over 18 starts away from home. He finished the regular season strong, going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA in August followed by a 3.08 ERA in his four starts in September. The Pirates will counter with Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA) who finished the season in an even stronger manner. The veteran did not allow a single run in his last two starts, hurling seven innings in both of them conceding a total of only seven hits. He's undefeated over the last two months, showing a 2.11 ERA in August and a 1.08 ERA over his five September starts. 2. Trends - Only one of the last five meetings have gone over the total. None of the Pirates last four have gone over, and only two of the Giants last eight on the road have. 3. X-factor - Hunter Pence's 180 hits in the regular season made him the Giants top guy in that category. Volquez has dominated the 31 year old in previous encounters though, limiting Pence to a .194 AVG with 16 strike outs over 36 at bats. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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09-23-14 | Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
The Texas Rangers are playing well of late, winners of nine of their last 10 overall. They host Houston in Game 2 of this home series tonight, after taking the opener by a score of 4-3. Both teams are turning to the back end of the rotation here in this hitter's park, and that could translate into a high scoring affair. |
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09-18-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 10-5 in September so far, and they'll look to complete the sweep at home versus Boston tonight. The Red Sox have been out-scored 13-1 while losing the first two games of this series, and with a struggling pitcher on the mound, that trend is likely to continue tonight. |
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09-15-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
After dropping 2-of-3 at home to the Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants are now three games out of first in the NL West. They take on the cellar dwelling D'Backs in Arizona tonight, and this looks like a favorable match-up for the visitors. I have my eye on the total though, as we'll see two inconsistent pitchers on the hill. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The D-backs will hand the ball to Wade Miley (7-11, 4.28 ERA) who's really struggled at Chase Field this season. The southpaw is 2-7, with an alarming ERA of 6.08 over 14 starts at home. He was 0-3 over five starts in August, and have surrendered four runs on 12 hits over nine innings so far this month. The Giants will counter with Ryan Vogelsong (8-10, 3.90 ERA) who was torched by the Rockies his last road start, as he surrendered eight runs on 10 hits, lasting only five innings. That was not a one time thing as he's been poor on the road for a better part of the season, posting a 5.11 ERA over 14 starts. 2. Over trends - All of the D-backs last four games have gone over the total, and so have seven of the Giants last nine on the road as well. 3. X-factor - Buster Posey has owned Miley, going 9-for-22 with one homer lifetime. Ryan Vogelsong has been hit hard by a lot of players in the D-backs line-up, but most notably Aaron Hill who's 13-for-28 with two homers versus the veteran. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*) |
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09-11-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees UNDER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
The Bronx Bombers will host the Tampa Rays at Yankee Stadium Thursday night, and both teams will be sending hot pitchers to the mound. Alex Cobb will get the nod for the visitors, while Michael Pineda takes the mound for the Yankees. The total may look low at first glance, but I think the under is a solid play tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 2. Trends - Only one of Pindea's last seven, and none of Cobb's last nine starts have gone over the total. 3. X-factor - Alex Cobb has the NYY line-up hitting .176 over 125 at bats, with Derek Jeter going 2-for-12 with two strike-outs lifetime. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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09-04-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
The St. Louis Cardinals have taken over the top spot in the NL Central, sitting three games up on the Milwaukee Brewers. The division rivals will meet tonight at Miller Park, for Game 1 of a four game series that could decide the division. The Cardinals come in riding a five game win streak, while the Brewers have lost eight in a row. I'm expecting a high scoring affair with a couple of struggling pitchers on the mound. 1. Pitching - The Brew Crew will hand the ball to Wily Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA) who's been hit hard over his last two starts, surrendering 14 runs on 16 hits over eight innings. The 25 year old had a decent start to the season, but has dropped off more and more and was posting a 4.81 ERA in his six outings in August. The Cardinals will counter with Michael Wacha (5-5, 2.79 ERA) who'll make his first start since the middle of June. The 23 year old right-hander was not exactly on the top of his game prior to his injury, showing a 4.24 ERA over his three June starts. He's win-less on the road this season, going 0-5 with a 3.40 ERA over seven starts.
Selection: This is a play on St.Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers to go over the total (10*) |
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09-03-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The Padres have been rather hot lately winning both games of this series so far and six of their last seven overall. Four of those six wins came in games decided by one run, and offense continues to be an issue for San Diego.
2. Padres woeful offense - The Padres are ranked last in all offensive categories in the major leagues. They've scored 11 runs over their last five games. 3. X-factor - Josh Collmenter has owned the Padres, limiting them to a .209 ERA over 86 at bats. Selection: This is a play on Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres to go UNDER the total (10*). |
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09-03-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 105 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
The Minnesota Twins are just 2-8 over their last 10 games, and they host the Chicago White Sox in Game 2 of this series tonight, after losing the opener by a score of 6-3 last night. The last four meetings have seen a total of 60 runs, and I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate in this fixture as well. Here are my keys to the game:
2. Trends - The over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last four games overall, and 5-0 in the Twins last five games at Target Field. 3. X-factor - Jose Abreu is set to make a comeback for the White Sox. He's 12-for-21 in his last six games, and is batting .339 versus Minnesota lifetime. Selection: This is a play on Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins to go over the total (10*). |
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08-28-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
After the Tribe won in a slugfest in Game 1 of this series versus Chicago, the White Sox responded with a 3-2 win in a pitcher's duel last night. I'm expecting to see the bats come alive again in the series finale. Here are my keys to the game: 1: Pitching - Carlos Carrasco will get the call for Cleveland, and he was lit up the last time he faced Chicago. Carrasco (5-4, 3.14 ERA) gave up five runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss earlier this year. The White Sox will counter with John Danks, who comes in win-less in his last four starts. Danks (4-8, 4.98 ERA) have given up 12 runs on 24 hits over 18 innings versus Cleveland this year, going 1-1. 2: Jose Abreu - The Chicago slugger is 10-for-19 with six RBIs in his last five games. 3. X-Factor - The White Sox have seen the total go over in seven of their last eight versus the AL Central. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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08-25-14 | New York Yankees v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
The Yankees and the Royals will play a make up game at Kauffman Stadium tonight. Two of the previous three in the season series went under the total, and runs wont be easy to come by tonight as two hot pitchers take the mound. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Yankees will hand the ball to Michael Pineda (2-2, 2.05 ERA) who'll make his seventh start of the season. The 25 year old has not allowed more than two runs in any of his previous games. The Royals will counter with James Shields (12-6, 3.28 ERA) who's been dominant all season long. He's undefeated so far in August, going 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA over four starts. The 32 year old has hurled six innings versus the Yankees this season, allowing only one unearned run on six hits. 2. Trends - None of Pineda's six starts this season have gone over the total, and the under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last four games on the road. 3. X-factor - The Royals line-up is a combined 7-for-36 versus Pineda, with Billy Butler going 0-for-6. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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08-21-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Indians will look to complete the sweep of a three game series versus the Twins at Target Field this afternoon. The series finale has all the signs of a pitcher's duel. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Phil Hughes (13-8, 3.76 ERA) who's coming of four quality starts in a row, going 3-1 and allowing six hits on 25 hits over 26 2/3 innings. He has done well versus the Indians line-up in the past, limiting them to a .222 AVG. The Tribe will counter with Corey Kluber (13-6, 2.41 ERA) who's undefeated in his last eight games. He has not allowed more than one run in any of his last five games, tossing a total of 39 innings. He's 6-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 13 games on the road for the season. 2. Trends - Eight of the Indians last nine games have gone under the total, and all of Kluber's last six road starts. All of Hughes' last six starts have also gone under the total. 3. X-factor - The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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08-20-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
The Cardinals can complete the sweep of this three game set versus the Reds tonight. The visitors have four consecutive losses, but if any man can put an end to that it's Johnny Cueto. He'll be up against another strong pitcher though, and runs wont be easy to come by in this series finale. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Reds will hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (15-6, 2.06 ERA) who's the owner of the third lowest ERA in baseball this season. The 28 year old has conceded a total of seven runs on 24 hits over 39 innings in his last two games. He's 6-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 13 starts on the road for the season. The Cardinals will counter with Lance Lynn (13-8, 2.91 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts. He's coming off a solid outing where he conceded only one run on six hits over six innings in a 4-2 win versus the Padres. He's 8-3 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 starts home at Busch Stadium this season. 2. Trends - The under is 4-1 in Cueto's last five starts on the road, all of Lynn's last seven coming in as a favorite has seen less run than the set line. 3. X-factor - Only the Padres have scored fewer runs this season than the St. Louis Cardinals. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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08-17-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Colorado Rockies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This four game set between the Reds and the Rockies is tied at 1-1 as the Reds equalized with a 3-2 win last night. Coors Field is known as a hitters park, and as a result we often get a high line on the total. We can take advantage of that this afternoon as we'll see two competent pitchers on the hill. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to Mat Latos (4-3, 2.95 ERA) who's shown good stuff all season long. He's coming off four quality starts in a row, and conceded only one run on five hits over seven innings versus the Red Sox his last time out. His road ERA is tiny 1.85 over five starts. The Rockies will counter with Jordan Lyles (6-1, 3.70 ERA) who's been very consistent this season. The 23 year old right-hander is coming off a loss at San Diego, but he allowed only two runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings. He's 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA over six starts at home for the season. 2. Rockies struggling offense - Colorado has only mustered 16 runs in its last five games, Thursday's 7-3 win in the series opener included. 3. Injuries - The Rockies have Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez on the DL. The Reds are hit hard as well as Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto remain on the DL. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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08-16-14 | San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
The Padres and the Cardinals are all set to play Game 3 of a four game set at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has won the first two games 4-2 and 4-3, and another low scoring ballgame is potentially in the cards tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Cardinals hand the ball to Shelby Miller (8-9, 4.17 ERA) who's coming off a quality start in his last home game. The right-hander allowed only one run on four hits over seven innings, but the Cardinals still lost 2-1 to the Red Sox. He has done well versus the Padres line-up in the past, limiting them to a .205 AVG over 39 at bats. The Padres will counter with Jesse Hahn (7-3, 2.52 ERA), a 25 year old rookie who's showing some impressive numbers his first season in the major leagues. He's 4-1 on the road with a 2.12 ERA over five starts. 2. Trends - All of the Cardinals last four games have gone under the total, as has the last four games between these two teams in St.Louis. 3. X-factor - The Cardinals have taken a major step back offensively this season, in fact only the Padres have scored fewer runs this year than St. Louis. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*) |
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08-13-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Last night's game between the Indians and the Diamondbacks was postponed due to heavy raining in Ohio. These two teams will make up for it by playing a double-header today, and I expect to see plenty of runs. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The D-backs will hand the ball to Vidal Nuno (2-8, 5.01), a 27 year old lefty who's been hit hard all season long. He surrendered five runs on seven hits over just four innings versus the Royals his last time out. He's win-less in his last seven starts. The Indians will counter with Josh Tomlin (5-8, 4.68 ERA) who's also struggled most of the season. He conceded six runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings in a loss at New York his last time out. 2. Trends - The over is 4-1 in Cleveland's last five games, and all of Tomlin's last seven home starts have gone over the total. 3. X-factor - Jason Kipnis was 3-for-5 his last game. Selection: This is a play on Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Indians to go OVER the total (10*). |
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08-10-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The Royals are on a six game winning streak and can complete the sweep of this three game set versus a struggling Giants team today. The Giants on the other hand have lost three straight, and show little signs of turning things around.
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08-09-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Last night's series opener of a three game set in Kansas City saw the home team defeat the Giants 4-2. Tonight's contest should be another low-scoring one as two competent pitchers take the hill.
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08-07-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The Dodgers and the Angels will close out this four game home-and-home set tonight. The visitors edged last night's game 2-1, and I think this will be another low scoring affair. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Dodgers hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-5, 3.39 ERA) who's undefeated in his last four starts. He's been dominant on the road all season, going 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts. The lefty has a somewhat limited experience versus the Angels line-up, but he'a had the better of them so far with them hitting a measley .154 over 26 at bats. The Angels will counter with another southpaw, C.J. Wilson (8-7, 4.74 ERA) who has not really lived up to expectations lately. He has a good home record going 6-1 in 10 starts, although his 4.06 ERA could be better. 2. No hitters park - All of the Angels last four games at Angel Stadium of Anaheim have gone under the predicted total, and the under is 4-0-1 in the last five head to head meetings in Anaheim. 3. X-factor - No matter who's pitching for the Dodgers, Mike Trout seems to struggle. He's batting a lowly .245 over 13 games versus the Dodgers lifetime, and is 0-for-4 against Ryu. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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08-06-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The Mariners won Game 1 of this two game set at home versus the Braves yesterday by a score of 4-2. That was the Braves seventh consecutive loss but they should be able to keep the score low and may even edge the win in a close game tonight.
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08-05-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
The Blue Jays finished July off with six consecutive wins, but have since lost three straight in August. The Orioles are 3-1 in their last four games, but they run into Toronto's ace tonight. The total looks a little high considering Buehrle's body of work this season.
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08-04-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
The Athletics will open a three games set versus the Rays at O.co Coliseum in Oakland tonight. These two teams have played a three game set at Tampa Bay already this season, with every game going under. I expect today's pitchers to be able to keep the bats quiet as well.
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08-04-14 | San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
We saw the Giants blowout the Mets at Citi Field on Sunday, but I expect to see a much closer contest here on Monday afternoon.
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08-01-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Houston Astros OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
Toronto defeated the Astros by a score of 6-5, thanks to a ninth inning game winning home run from Nolan Reimold in the series opener yesterday. Houston will to execute revenge tonight, and considering their choice of pitcher the offense will probably have to pull a heavy weight if they're to pull that off. Here are my keys to the game:
2. Recent history - This will be the fifth game between the teams this season, with the first four seeing a total of 38 runs over the plate. 3. X-factor - Jose Altuve was on a 12 game hitting streak up until yesterdays game. He must be eager to get back to the plate as he looks to maintain his lead in the AL batting race. Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros to go OVER the total (10*) |
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07-31-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
The Blue Jays are coming off a 3-0 sweep at Boston, and are 10-3 since the All Star break. The offense has been terrific lately, scoring 35 runs in the last five games. The Astros took 2-of-3 from Oakland, with every game seeing more than nine runs. Two hot teams should be involved in another high scoring contest tonight, when they open a four game set at Minute Maid Park. Here are my keys to the game:
2. Recent history - This is the fourth game between the Blue Jays and the Astros this season. They combined for 27 runs in the first three. 3. X-factor - The Blue Jays Dioner Navarro was 3-for-4 in yesterdays win at Boston. He will face Cosart for the first time tonight, but is batting .323 in Houston lifetime. Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros to go OVER the total (10*) |
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07-31-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
The Padres bats came alive on Wednesday, blowing out the Cardinals by a score of 12-1. Offensive blow-outs have otherwise been scarce for San Diego this season, as they rank last in the majors in most offensive categories. The Cardinals aren't exactly lighting it up offensively either, and we should see a low scoring affair today in San Diego. Here are my keys to the game:
2. The worst offense in the major leagues - Yes, San Diego Padres is the worst ranked team in runs, and the Cardinals are just marginally better ranking second to last. 3. X-factor - Brian Gorman will be calling balls and strikes today, and he's been generous to pitchers lately, with his last four games failing to go over the total. Selection: This is a play on the St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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07-30-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
The Blue Jays were rather pedestrian offensively last night, beating the Red Sox 4-2. That was the first game between these two teams this season that saw less than eight runs scored, and I think that order will be restored tonight.
Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox to go over the total (10*). |
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07-26-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
The Yankees won Game 1 of this three game set 6-4 yesterday and they have now won 7-of-8 at home since the All Star break. The Blue Jays are 4-2 in their last six games, with each game seeing eight runs or more. Today's contest should be another high scoring affair. |
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07-25-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
The Cubs are coming off back-to-back blowout losses at the hands of the Padres, surrendering a total of 21 runs to the league's worst offense. They host the Cardinals at Wrigley on Friday afternoon, and with a pair of struggling starters on the mound, we are likely to see another high scoring affair. 3: X-Factor - Nate Schierholtz has not been fooled by Kelly, going 6-for-13 lifetime against the 26 year old. |
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07-24-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
The Orioles will look to continue their success on the road when they open a new series in Seattle Thursday Night. The Mariners have a pretty poor home record, and after losing back-to-back games to the Mets, they are now 25-28 at Safeco. I've had plenty of success backing Baltimore on this road trip, but I think the best bet is on the under in tonight's game. 1. Pitching - Wei-Yin Chen will be on the mound for the Orioles, and he's having himself a career year. Chen (10-3, 4.21 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over five innings, winning his last start on the road in Oakland. He's won three in a row, and he boasts a record of 5-1 in eight starts on the road this year. The Mariners counter with Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off a loss in his most recent start. |
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07-23-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
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07-23-14 | Texas Rangers v. New York Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
We didn't see a lot of offense in the Bronx last night, with neither team able to score a run until the 13th inning. There is every reason to expect another pitcher's duel at Yankee Stadium here on Wednesday, as the Rangers send ace Yu Darvish to the mound. |
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07-18-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
The Rockies were dreadful heading into the break, winning just five times in their final 26 games. They might have a chance to turn things around in Pittsburgh, with what appears to be a favorable match-up in starting pitchers. My money is on the visitors to keep this one close, which should result in enough runs to push the total over the number. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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07-13-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
The Tigers and the Royals will meet in the final game of a four game set in Kansas City Sunday, and Detroit has a chance to complete the sweep. Given the match-up on the mound in this matinee game, we could see a slugfest at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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07-11-14 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
The Marlins wrap up the first half of the season in New York, and Game 1 of this three game set at Citi Field goes Friday. The Fish have split the first six games of this road trip, and they will like their chances tonight with a red hot pitcher on the mound. I expect to see a pitcher's duel in tonight's series opener, and runs should be few and far between. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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07-10-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 102 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
The Pirates have lost three straight in St. Louis, and they will wrap up this series at Busch Stadium on Thursday night. With both teams turning to the back end of their rotation, we don't expect a pitcher's duel here tonight. I expect to see enough offense to push the number over the total.
Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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07-04-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
The Tigers beat up on Eric Bedard Thursday, taking Game 1 of this series by a score of 8-1. Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter and Ian Kinsler all went deep for the Tigers, while Max Sherzer silenced the Rays. Tampa might have a better chance of scoring a few runs here in Game 2, and I'm expecting this one to be a high scoring affair. 3. X-Factor - Alex Avila is 4-for-7 lifetime, while Torri Hunter is 6-for-13 versus Cobb. |
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07-03-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 120 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The San Francisco Giants have lost six of eight on this current home stand, and they now find themselves in a heated battle with the Dodgers who trail by just a half game in the NL West. After splitting the first two games of this series versus St. Louis, the Giants appear to have the advantage heading into the rubber match. |
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07-01-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
David Price is rumored to be on the way out of Tampa Bay, so each time he takes the mound it could be his final start in a Rays uniform. He's scheduled to start Tuesday as the Rays take on the Yankees in Game 2 of this series in the Bronx. I don't expect to see a lot of scoring in this game, with a pair of top knotch pitchers facing off. Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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06-30-14 | Texas Rangers v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
The Baltimore Orioles will host Texas in the opening game of a four game set at Camden Yards Monday. Texas is struggling, with just a pair of wins over it's last 11 games. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-29-14 | Oakland A's v. Miami Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
We've seen a couple of high scoring tilts here in Miami in the first tow games of this series between the A's and the Fish, and there's every reason to expect another slugfest here at Marlins Park Sunday. Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-26-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 112 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The Brewers bats exploded for nine runs last night, chasing Stephen Strasburh from the game after just four innings. Milwaukee will welcome the Colorado Rockies to town Thursday, and with two of baseball's best offenses, we can expect to see some fireworks. Selection: This is a play on the Rockies/Brewers to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-26-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Blue Jays won 2-of-3 at home versus the Yankees, and both victories were high scoring tilts. Hiroki Kuroda managed to quiet Toronto's bats last night, but we should expect to see more offense tonight, with the Jays hosting the White Sox in the first game of a four game series. Selection: This is a play on Chicago/Toronto to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-25-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Clayton Kershaw followed up his no-hitter by defeating the Royals in a 2-0 pitcher's duel at Kauffman Stadium last night. We can likely expect another low scoring affair in the series finale Wednesday, with Dan Haren starting opposite Royal's ace James Shields. 3. X-Factor - Yasiel Puig has cooled off at the plate, going just 2-for-18 on this road trip so far. |
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06-20-14 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
The Marlins came up short in yesterday's series opener with the Mets, failing to score in a 1-0 ballgame. They look to bounce back in Game 2 with Henderson Alvarez on the hill, and the right-hander is undefeated in his last six starts. One of those wins was a complete game shutout win over Tampa. |
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06-18-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
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06-16-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
The Phillies were shutout in a 3-0 loss to the Cubs yesterday, and it's unlikely that they will fare much better on the road in Atlanta on Monday night. This team has already packed it in, going through the motions in another disastrous season. Already there are trade talks swirling the clubhouse, as the salary dump is inevitable. Selection: This is a play on the Phillies/Braves to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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06-16-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-8 | Win | 101 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The Royals are red hot, winners of seven in a row. They scored 22 runs in a three game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago over the weekend, but they have to face Tigers ace Justin Verlander here on Monday. With the Royals swinging the bats well, we could see a few runs scored here in Detroit tonight. Selection: This is a play on the Royals/Tigers to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-15-14 | Texas Rangers v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
The Mariners struggles at home continued on Friday, as Felix Hernandez tossed a gem, allowing a lone run on four hits over 8 1/3 innings, only to lose 1-0. Seattle will hope for more run support for their other ace, as Hisashi Iwakuma takes the mound tonight. |
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06-13-14 | San Diego Padres v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
The Padres have lost four straight, and two of those losses were shutouts. San Diego will look to turn things around tonight with it's ace on the mound, but they'll need to get him some runs. I like the under here in New York with a pair of quality pitchers in park that doesn't produce a lot of runs. 3. X-Factor - The Padres have played a lot of low scoring games on the road, with the total going under in 19 of their last 27 away from Petco. |
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06-09-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The Orioles were on the wrong side of an 11-1 blowout at Camden Yards Sunday, and they'll have their hands full once again as they host the Red Sox in Game 1 of a new series at home on Monday. Given the scheduled starters in a this hitter's park, we should see another slugfest. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - Bud Norris will be the starter for the O's, and he's allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts. The Red Sox roughed him up pretty good already this year, as he surrendered four runs on five hits and two walks in a loss at Fenway. Jake Peavy has had his own struggles, and Boston has lost four of his last five starts, with the veteran allowing at least five runs in all four of those losses. 2: Park Factor - The over has trended at a rate of 6-2-2 in the Orioles last 10 home games. Camden Yards has a much lower score in 2014, after ranking 4th overall last year. Expect a major correction during the rest of the summer, with warmer air in Baltimore. 3: X-Factor - Big Papi won the game for the Red Sox with a three-run blast in Detroit last night. Ortiz is 3-for-9 with a home run against Norris. Selection: This is a play on Boston/Baltimore Over (10*) |
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06-04-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Washington Nationals OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Washington was my free play yesterday and considering they won 7-0, I see no reason not to up the ante tonight. Not only do I like the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg to win this game, but I expect it to go Over as well. Last night's game stayed Under by one-half run, but the number is lower. I don't think we'll need much help from the Phillies offense either. Philadelphia has the worst record in the National League since May 4th at 9-18 and has lost five of its last six after a bad weekend experience at home vs. the Mets. Manager Ryne Sandberg hasn't impressed me much at all. Here are my keys to the game: 1. AJ Burnett - Things don't look too good for the Phillies starter in this matchup, considering a 6.30 ERA his last five starts. He had six walks and gave up five runs in his last start and has allowed 24 runs in his last 30 innings of work. Washington is averaging 6.5 runs/game its last four and that's even after being shutout on Sunday. 2. Return of Zimmerman - Remember this key from yesterday's free play? Zimmerman had missed almost two months with a thumb injury, but returned by going 2 for 4 with a run batted in. He's likely to be in left field again tonight, but it's at the plate where his return makes the biggest difference. In 10 games, Zimmerman was batting .364 and had two homers before the injury. 3. X-Factor - Over Philadelphia's last nine games, only once has there been less than seven total runs scored. Selection: The play is on Over Philadelphia-Washington (10*) |
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06-03-14 | Kansas City Royals v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I'm taking the Over tonight as St. Louis looks to get something going offensively against in-state foe Kansas City. The Cardinals were shutout for a second straight game Monday (Sunday by the Giants) as the Royals came in and took the opener 6-0 thanks in large part to a quality start from left-handed Danny Duffy. Thankfully for the home team they are a lot more prolific when facing righties, so even thought its James Shields pitching tonight for the visitors, St. Louis should put some runs on the board. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Shields - Surprisingly, the Over is 7-1 his last eight starts. Part of that is because he's been the only Royals pitcher to consistently get good run support, but also he did give up six runs in his last start, a season-high. Over his last three starts, he's allowed a total of 13 runs, leading to a 5.85 ERA and 1.450 WHIP. 2. Jaime Garcia - Similarly, the Over is 3-0 in starts made by the pitcher who will be on the mound tonight for St. Louis. He's already allowed four home runs. The Cardinals are also 17-11-1 Over at home this season. 3. X-Factor - Keep an eye on the Royals base-stealing prowess. They are the American League leaders in that category with 48 after leading all of baseball last year with 153. They have 20 stolen bases in the last 14 games alone. The obvious reason to keep an eye on this is because stolen bases lead to more runners getting in scoring position. Selection: This is an Over play on Kansas City-St. Louis (10*) |
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06-02-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
I'm taking the Over in tonight's Pittsburgh at San Diego game. Fun fact: This is the only regularly scheduled National League game on the slate for Monday. The Over worked for me last night in the Pirates' 5-3 win over the Dodgers as I was lucky the home team tacked on what was essentially a meaningless run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Thus, I'll come back and play things the same way here. The Padres have a major question mark going today in starter Tim Stauffer. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Stauffer - This will be his third start. After the first one probably couldn't have gone any better, the last one definitely couldn't have been any worse as he allowed seven runs while failing to make it out of the first inning. Tonight's performance should end up somewhere in the middle, but that should still be enough to allow the game to go Over. Both previous starts, an 11-1 win and a 12-6 loss, easily went Over. 2. Morton on the Road - The Pirates will go with Charlie Morton as their starter tonight. He simply is not very good on the road. He's winless this year when not pitching an PNC Park and has allowed 20 runs in his last 30 innings pitched away from home. 3. X-Factor - Before running into Chris Sale yesterday, San Diego had scored 23 runs and had 52 hits its previous five games. For Pittsburgh, scoring five times in a game where the Dodgers started Clayton Kershaw is pretty impressive as well. Selection: This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-San Diego (10*) |
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06-01-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Admittedly, taking an Over when Zack Greinke is pitching seems a little bit odd. After all, he's gone 23 straight starts without allowing more than three runs. But prior to his last start, he hadn't allowed more than two in 22 straight starts, so there's always a first time for everything. Also, even if he does give up only 2-3 runs here, you have to think Pirates starter Edinson Volquez will give up a lot more to a Dodgers offense that scored 12 runs in a big win yesterday. Here are my keys to the game: 1. An Over Pitcher - Although Greinke's numbers are impressive, you might be surprised to learn that the Over is actually 7-4 in his 11 starts this season. The Over has cashed in his last two starts. He typically gets pretty good run support and remember that he's unlikely to go the distance (only once has he pitched 8 full innings), which means the bullpen could always give up additional runs. 2. Volquez - Interestingly, the Under is actually 8-2 for him in 10 starts. But this is also because the total is almost always higher than it is here. There have been three times where he's allowed five runs or more. He has a 5.40 ERA on the road. 3. X-Factor - Pittsburgh had 11 hits yesterday, so it's not as if they were quiet at the plate. They simply failed to come through when they had runners in scoring position. Consider that the Dodgers only had three more hits, but scored 10 more runs. The scoring is likely to be more balanced tonight. Selection: This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-LA Dodgers (10*) |
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05-29-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Houston Astros OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
While I like the Under in Kansas City-Toronto, I like the Over for Baltimore-Houston tonight. The Astros come back home on their longest win streak of the season as they taken five in a row, including a sweep of the Royals in Kansas City. They have a number of hot hitters in their lineup, which should match up well this weekend against a struggling Orioles starting rotation that sends out Ubaldo Jimenez for the series opener. For Houston, Brad Peacock isn't likely to be much better as his numbers are almost identical and he's won just once in eight starts. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Hot Houston Hitting - Two players bear mentioning here, the first being George Springer, a rookie who has hit six home runs in his last six games and is batting .405 the last 10 games. Jose Altuve is batting .400 over his last 20 games, reaching base safely in 19 of them. The team has scored 34 times while collecting 61 hits during its five-game win streak. Three times they have scored nine runs on their own. 2. Weak Starting Pitching - Baltimore's starting rotation has been bad all around the last 10 games with an 8.06 ERA. Only once during that time has a starter gone more than six innings. It wasn't Jimenez, who lasted just four in his last start and gave up five runs in a 9-0 loss to Cleveland. He has allowed at least four runs six times already this season. For Houston, Peacock has a 4.58 ERA and 1.556 WHIP and has pitched worse at home than on the road. 3. X-Factor - Baltimore has a hot hitter of its own right now in Nelson Cruz, who leads MLB in home runs with 19 for the year and he's slugging a ridiculous 1.000 the last 14 games. Selection: The play is Over Baltimore-Houston (10*) |
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05-29-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
I like the Under in Thursday's opener between Kansas City and Toronto. These have certainly been two clubs trending in opposite directions of late. The Royals inability to find any kind of consistent hitting resulted in them getting swept at home by Houston. Overall, the team has lost five of six. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won nine in a row to take control in the American League East. We have two quality starting pitchers on the mound tonight - James Shields for Kansas City and RA Dickey for Toronto - and they should keep the scoring down. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Dickey vs. KC - The knuckleballer's overall numbers aren't that spectacular, but facing this weak-hitting Royals lineup should definitely be to his benefit. The Royals have scored three runs or less in four straight and are last in MLB in home runs and slugging percentage. Dickey has also gotten better as the season has progressed. In his last start, his best of the year, he allowed just 2 runs and 5 hits in 8 1/3 innings of work. He's now 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA his last six starts. 2. Shields - Going back to his time in Tampa Bay, the Royals ace has been very good against Toronto throughout his career. In his last eight starts against them, he's 6-1 with a 1.13 ERA. No other pitcher with at least five starts since 2011 against the Blue Jays has a better earned run average. Twice he's gone the distance here at Rogers Centre. He's allowed two earned runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts this season. 3. X-Factor - These two starters faced off against one another last year and the result was a 3-2 final. Five of the six games played between these two teams went Under in 2013. Selection: The play is Under Kansas City-Toronto (10*) |
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05-25-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
I like the Under on Sunday Night Baseball as we should get a pitchers duel between Adam Wainwright for St. Louis and Mike Leake for Cincinnati. Both come in having pitched very well all season long, Wainwright in particular. After the first two games of this series both found a way to sneak Over the total, this one shouldn't feature many runs. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Wainwright - He is coming off a career best outing where he allowed only one hit in a complete game effort. His 1.85 ERA ranks right near the top of the National League and he's allowed two runs or less in all but two of his starts this year. Over his last three starts, he has a 1.17 ERA and a 0.696 WHIP. Of the 10 times he's pitched this season, the opponent has not scored a single run in five of those games! 2. Leake - Despite being winless over his last six starts, it's not like he's pitched poorly. His ERA is 2.89 going back to April 15th and over his last four starts, it's 1.89. He's allowed just one run in each of his last two starts and four of his last five have stayed Under the total. 3. X-Factor - The reason for Leake not having more victories is the fact Cincinnati never seems to score for him. In each of his last five starts, they've failed to score more than four runs for the entire game. Selection: The play is Under St. Louis-Cincinnati (10*) |
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05-20-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. New York Mets OVER 7 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
I like the Over tonight as the Mets and Dodgers open this three-game series. While the home side has been struggling big time at the plate and is going against Josh Beckett, the total is just too low for a pair of teams that more often than not are capable of giving up a lot of runs. Twice in the last four games, the Dodgers have allowed 13 or more runs. The Mets are 5-2-1 Over the last eight games despite their lack of hitting. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Raul Montero - In his first start, Montero allowed two home runs, which cost him in a 4-0 loss to Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees. There were reports that he was tipping his pitches, which isn't a good sign going forward, especially against a Top 10 offense like the Dodgers. 2. Dodgers When Favored - When favored on the money line, the Dodgers are 21-12-1 Over this season. 3. X-Factor - When you get past Beckett, you have a Dodgers' bullpen that has been very poor on the road this season. They have a 5.47 ERA and 1.740 WHIP. They've blown three saves in 11 chances and are allowing more than two runs per appearance. Brian Wilson should be singled out for specific blame. Selection: The play is Over Los Angeles-New York (10*) |
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05-17-14 | New York Mets v. Washington Nationals OVER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is an Over play for Mets-Nationals this afternoon. Yesterday's game was a 5-2 final in favor of Washington, so we'll need just one more run today to make this a winning bet. Fortunately, I don't think Saturday's starting pitching matchup is as strong, plus at least the Mets were able to put runs on the board yesterday. Prior to scoring two times in the top of the fifth, they had gone 22 consecutive innings without a runner crossing the plate. Overall, it was their ninth straight loss to Washington. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Bartolo Colon - Making the Mets' job even tougher today is the fact they have Colon on the hill. In eight starts, his ERA is 5.84 and things have only progressively gotten worse. He's allowed seven runs in two of his last three starts, including the last one, which was against the Yankees. He's already given up eight home runs this season, including a grand slam vs. the Yankees. All of last year, Colon allowed just 14 home runs. 2. Dominance over the Mets - As I mentioned before, Washington has now won nine in a row vs. the Mets. They have scored 58 runs in those nine wins, which works out to roughly 6.5 per game. All we need is SOMETHING from the Mets in this game in order for the Over to cash. 3. X-Factor - Gio Gonzalez has not looked good his last four starts with a 5.16 ERA. He lasted only 4 1/3 in his last start, giving up seven runs and nine hits. Selection: The play is Over New York-Washington (10*) |
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05-17-14 | Atlanta Braves v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
I like the Over this afternoon as Atlanta takes on St. Louis. Yesterday's game was 5-2 in favor of the Cardinals and we'll need one more run scored today to make this a winning bet. Given the way the Braves have been scoring, or should I say haven't been scoring, lately, that run would likely need to come from the home team. I think they'll have their chances against Atlanta starter Harang, who was shelled the last time he started on the road. Yesterday saw them score five runs, the first time since August of last year that Ervin Santana had allowed that many. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Control Issues - The Cardinals will go with Shelby Miller in this game and if there has been one problem with him all year, it's been walking batters. In every start this year, but one, he has walked at least three batters. Ironically, that one start was against Harang and Atlanta. But the fact remains that Miller's walk rate of 5.4 per nine innings remains the worst in all of baseball. Overall, he has 27 BB's in 8 starts. That's a big reason for his poor WHIP and the Braves should have some added opportunities for baserunners in this game. 2. Harang On the Road - His last start outside of Turner Field was a disaster as he allowed 9 runs and 10 hits in less than five innings of work. He does not have a strong history against the Cardinals with his 14 career losses the most against any one opponent. 3. X-Factor - Miller is typically not lasting very long in his starts, averaging just 5 2/3 innings. That's a problem for many reasons, one of them that St. Louis' bullpen has an ERA north of 4.00. Selection: This is an Over play on Atlanta-St. Louis (10*) |
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05-16-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
I like the Under tonight as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks renew pleasantries. While its true that Arizona's pitching staff has stunk most of the year, they've gotten substantially better after a dreadful April and the Dodgers just aren't hitting much right now. Los Angeles will rely on Zack Greinke, who of course is very good and I expect him to have little difficulty in facing this Diamondbacks' lineup. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Greinke - Through eight starts, he has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.147 WHIP. The most runs he's allowed in any start is two. That obviously gives us alot to work with here. If we go back to the end of last season, he has gone 20 consecutive starts where he's allowed three runs or less. That's a record in the post "dead ball" era. Greinke has started twice against Arizona this year, giving up just 2 runs in more than 11 innings of work and the last five times he's faced them have seen the Diamonbacks hit just .188 as Greinke's ERA is 1.72. 2. Arizona Offense - Scoring just four runs the last two games, its not like the Diamonbacks are doing much at the plate recently. The Under has cashed in 4 of their last 5 games. 3. X-Factor - This will be the 9th meeting of the year between these National League West rivals. Arizona has lost all five at home and overall the Dodgers' starting rotation has gone 6-0, posting a 1.50 ERA. Selection: This is a Under play on Los Angeles-Arizona (10*) |
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05-13-14 | New York Mets v. New York Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
The Mets and Yankees went Over in yesterday's opener with the road team winning 9-7. Regardless of who wins tonight, I'll be anticipating a similar score as the Mets are hitting all of a sudden and the Yankees have collected double digit hits in four of their last five games as well. The Mets have now gone Over in three straight games while the Yankees have done them two better at five straight. Only one of those didn't see at least nine total runs scored. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Mets' Heating Up at the Plate - In their last two games, the Mets have collected 30 hits, including a season-high 16 on Sunday. Five of those were home runs - four of them coming last night - and another five were doubles. They shouldn't have too much to worry about tonight going up against Vidal Nuno, who has a 7.00 ERA in two home starts. 2. Yankees Too - The Bronx Bombers have scored no fewer than four runs in any of their last six. They are averaging 5.0 the last seven. Mets' starter Zach Wheeler comes in with a 5.06 ERA in four road starts this season, a number that came down after his last start despite it being a loss. 3. X-Factor - The Mets have scored 21 runs total in their last three games at Yankees Stadium. Selection: This is an Over play on Mets-Yankees (10*) |
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05-11-14 | New York Yankees v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
These teams have combined to score eight and nine runs respectively in the first two games of this series and I'll call for even more scoring as they finish things up at Miller Park this afternoon. Given the Brewers surprising start, it's pretty amazing to find that they are only scoring 3.2 runs/game at home with a .226 batting average. Then again, they do have a better record on the road. However, they were able to pound out 10 hits in Saturday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, who have now gone Over in three straight games. Take the Over here too. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Matt Garza - Today's starting pitcher from the Brewers seems to think he's better than he actually is. Over his last three starts, he has an ERA of 5.62. That has a lot to do with allowing five runs in just three innings at St. Louis on April 30th. He's been much better at home this year, but his career numbers vs. the Yankees are not very good. Before tossing a quality start against them last year, he had an ERA of 4.78 his previous nine times facing the Pinstripes. 2. David Phelps - The Yankees started was better than expected filling in for the suspended Michael Pineda against the Angels on Monday. But as a starter his ERA is 4.28 lifetime, so I wouldn't be counting on a similar performance today. 3. X-Factor - On the road, the Yankees allow 4.6 runs/game. This has a lot to do with a bullpen that has a 4.44 ERA away from home. Selection: This is an Over play on New York-Milwaukee (10*) |
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05-07-14 | Houston Astros v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
The Tigers are a hot team right now, winners of seven straight to be exact, and scored 11 runs yesterday in a rout of the Houston Astros. I don't see any reason why once again they can't send this game Over the total again by themselves. (I'd like to take Detroit to win this game obviously, but with the money line being so high, the risk doesn't outweigh the reward). Astros starter Brad Peacock has a penchant for giving up unearned runs due to the highest walk rate per nine innings among qualifying pitchers. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Tigers' Offensive Surge - Since April 29th, the team is averaging a strong 6.9 runs/game. They've scored eight or more runs in four of the last five games, peaking with yesterday's output where they had 18 hits. They've recorded at least 12 hits in four of the last five games as well. Miguel Cabrera has led the way with a .396 batting average and 1.041 OPS the last 12 games following an uncharacteristic slow start to the season. 2. Astros Pitching - Bad enough is the fact Peacock is walking an average of seven batters per nine innings. But the Houston bullpen is also a mess right now with a MLB worst 6.24 ERA having allowed 15 runs over its last 11 innings of work. 3. X-Factor - The Tigers have averaged greater than seven runs/game against the Astros since Houston became an American League team. Selection: This is an Over play on Houston-Detroit (10*). |
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05-05-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This likely will not end up being a pleasant series for an already beleaguered Arizona pitching staff which has given up the most runs in all of baseball. The Diamondbacks got a bit of a reprieve over the weekend when they faced off against the worst offensive team in all of baseball, the San Diego Padres. But the league leading Brewers will take no mercy on them. After scoring three runs or less in five straight games, Milwaukee should get its offense back on track. Arizona should also be able to score some runs tonight, thus I look for the game to go Over. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Matt Garza - The Brewers' starting pitcher recently claimed that playing for the Cubs cost him about 30 wins. That's laughable and I wonder what excuse(s) he will start coming up with now that he's 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA this year for a first place team. He allowed five runs in three innings in his last start at St. Louis. He's now allowed at least four runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. 2. Mike Bolsinger - I have little confidence in either of tonight's starters as for Arizona we have Bolsinger, who has twice allowed four or more runs while going five innings or less in just three starts. His ERA and WHIP is even worse than that of Garza. 3. X-Factor: Because of the woeful pitching, Arizona is 20-11-3 Over in all games this season. Selection: This is an Over play on Arizona-Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-15-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 108 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
After allowing six or more runs in six of seven games, Twins pitching made a major rebound over the weekend against Kansas City, but I don't look for that to last. Toronto's lineup facing Phil Hughes could put this game over on its own, but when you also factor in the fact Minnesota scored 21 runs themselves in the three games vs. the Royals, you get the feeling that we could have a game similar to yesterday's Pirates-Reds slugfest (hopefully minus the rain). Go with the Over in this one. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Hughes - It has not been a good start for him in Minnesota. He has failed to last longer than five innings in either of his two outings and both times allowed four runs. Both of those games went way Over the total too as there 30 combined runs have been scored. Having a career ERA north of 5.00 vs. Toronto doesn't help either. Look for Hughes to give up plenty of runs again tonight. 2. Plenty of Ammo - Toronto had season highs in runs (11) and hits (17) in their last game as they took the series from Baltimore. Minnesota is actually #4 in all of baseball right now as they've scored 67 times, but they are still barely outscoring opponents, 5.6 to 5.3 per game. With an average of over 10 runs scored in their games, Over is the way to go with the Twins. 3. X-Factor - While he missed much of 2013 due to injury, Brandon Morrow comes into this game on an incredible Over streak. His last nine starts have all gone Over with at least nine runs scored in every game. The average number of runs scored in those contests is 12.5! Selection: This is an Over play on Toronto-Minnesota (10*) |
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04-13-14 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Red Sox and Yankees went Over last night and I look for them to do the same tonight on ESPN's "Sunday Night Baseball." For "starters," both Felix Doubront for Boston and Ivan Nova for New York have looked shaky this season. Going back to last year, Doubront didn't fare well against the Yankees nor did Nova do well against the Red Sox. The Red Sox offense is due to break out sooner rather than later while the Yankees appear to be having no issues at the plate.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Doubront - He has a 14.09 ERA the last two times he's faced the Yankees. In neither of those starts did he make it past the fourth inning. Yet in both he allowed six earned runs. He's coming off a pretty rough outing as well where he didn't even make it out of the third inning and allowed five runs to Texas. 2. Nova - As bad as Doubront was in his last start, Nova was worse as the Orioles scored seven runs off him on ten hits, knocking him out after just 3 2/3 innings. The Yankees would go on to suffer their worst loss of the season, 14-5. Nova has a 7.88 ERA his last two starts vs. Boston. Neither time did he make it out of the fifth inning. 3. X-Factor - After recording 14 hits and five home runs yesterday, the Yankees will have Derek Jeter back in the lineup. As much as you may want to write "The Captain" off at his advanced age, he was 3 for 8 in the first two games of this series. For Boston, they will have Grady Sizemore back at the top of the lineup after he missed Saturday's game. Selection: This is an Over play on Red Sox-Yankees (10*). |
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04-10-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Matchups in the National League West will typically bring low totals, as is the case here, but the oddsmakers obviously must not be paying attention to what the Diamondbacks and Giants have been doing thus far. Some feel that San Francisco may have the best offense in the NL this year and so far the team has made those people look smart with 50 runs scored in nine games. Eight of their games have gone Over the total. Same for Arizona, who is 8-3 Over this year, mainly due to bad pitching. But they scored seven runs Wednesday and I see this one going Over the total too.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Arizona Pitching Woes - The Diamondbacks staff ERA is 6.00 entering today with the opposition scoring seven or more runs six times already. It has not been a good start to the season for today's Diamondbacks starter. Randall Delgado gave up six runs and 10 hits over four innings in a 12-2 loss to Colorado Friday. Looking back to last year, he's now failed to go at least six innings in four of five starts, which has seen him produce an 8.10 ERA while going 1-3. 2. Ryan Vogelsong - Just like Arizona with Delgado, I'm not expecting San Francisco to get a quality start out of Vogelsong. He too didn't make it far in his first start of the year, giving up 4 runs and 7 hits in four innings against the Dodgers on Friday. Last year's injury plagued season saw him go 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA in 19 starts. He has an 8.51 ERA his last five starts against Arizona. 3. X-Factor - With two teams that are combined 12-4 Over this season, a 7.5 run total seems low. Selection: This is an Over play on Arizona-San Francisco (10*) |
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04-07-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Both of these teams lost yesterday and did so because they supplied very little offense. The Rays were shutout 3-0 in Texas while the Royals managed only one run in a loss at the hands of the White Sox. Tampa Bay is now 4-3 while Kansas City is just 2-3, but it looks like we could have an even pitching matchup today with Matt Moore going up against Jason Vargas. I look for a low-scoring game and am taking the Under.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Rays Pitching vs. Royals Hitting - Kansas City had some suprisingly good numbers at the plate last year vs. Tampa Bay, but given the way 2014 has started I don't look for a repeat, at least in this series. In five of seven games, the Rays have allowed three runs or less and their staff ERA ranks in the Top 10 in the majors. The Royals come in batting just .214 with runners in scoring position and have scored only 16 runs total. Rays starter Matt Moore should help to continue these trends tonight. 2. Jason Vargas - Don't discount what the Royals lefty can do either. Prior to losing to them last September, he was 3-1 in four starts against them with a 1.32 ERA. He also pitched well in his first start of the season, going toe to toe with Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. Kansas City lost the game 2-1, but Vargas did his part in holding the Tigers to just one run over seven innings. 3. X-Factor - Tampa Bay has already been shutout twice this year. They have been even worse than Kansas City with runners in scoring position, batting .208 including 0 for 11 yesterday. Selection: This is an Under play on Tampa Bay-Kansas City (10*). |
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10-28-13 | Boston Red Sox v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
I'm taking the Blackhawks Monday night against the Wild. Surprisingly, the two Central Division teams are currently tied with 15 points, good enough for second place behind Colorado. While a major cause for celebration in Minnesota, that's got to be somewhat disappointing for the Stanley Cup champs considering the way Chicago started last season. I think this is a great value on the Blackhawks thanks to them being on the road. NHL road favorites have been tearing up the league at the start of the season, winning 29 times in 41 tries so far.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Revenge - This is an immediate revenge situation for the Blackhawks, who were dealt their first home regulation loss of the season Saturday night by the Wild, with a final score of 5-3. Keep in mind that Minnesota was a team Chicago ousted in last year's playoffs, in just five games, with the Blackhawks outscoring the Wild 15-7 for the series. 2. Wild Offense - The biggest shock of Saturday night wasn't just that Minnesota won, but rather they did so by scoring five times on just 25 shots! This is a team that had scored more than three times only once all season before the win over Chicago. I can't see Corey Crawford playing any worse in net as his .800 save percentage was his worst in a game in a year and half and his GAA in five playoff starts vs. the Wild last year was 1.32. 3. X-Factor - Minnesota is 0-8 SU following back to back multi-goal victories. Selection: The play is on the Chicago Blackhawks (10*). |
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10-23-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Boston Red Sox OVER 7 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
While taken as a whole, the number of runs scored per game has been very low this postseason, I'm expecting a higher scoring game than most expect for Game 1 of the World Series, thus I'm going with the Over as the Cardinals and Red Sox get things going Wednesday Night. Both teams' bats seemed to come alive late in their series as they won their respective pennants last round. St. Louis led the National League in runs scored during the regular season while Boston was #1 overall in MLB in most offensive categories.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Offenses - The Red Sox averaged 5.2 runs/game at home this season. While they struggled to get anything going early in most games in the ALCS, they did end up scoring 12 runs total over the final three games, a decent number. Surprisingly, the Over is 5-3-2 in their 10 postseason games so far. The Over also has a slight edge in St. Louis' playoff games as well, going 6-5, incuding Game 6 of the NLCS where the Cardinals scored nine times, seven of those runs coming in four innings against arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. Overall, St. Louis has scored 17 runs total its last three games. 2. Pitching Matchup - Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright has allowed 136 hits in 127 2/3 innings pitched on the road this season. He has never pitched against the Red Sox, let alone at Fenway Park. The Over is 10-7-1 in his 18 road starts this season. Boston's Game 1 starter is Jon Lester and he has a below par 4.09 ERA in night time starts this season. 3. X-Factor - St. Louis is 26-14 Over this season after allowing 1 run or less in their previous game. Selection: This is an Over play on St. Louis-Boston (10*). |
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10-12-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
I like Game 1 of the ALCS to go Under the total. We have what looks like a great pitching matchup between Anibal Sanchez and Jon Lester. Sanchez did not pitch well in his LDS start, but on a staff that includes both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, he actually led the team in ERA. (He, in fact, led the American League in earned run average!). Meanwhile, Lester simply never seems to pitch poorly here at Fenway Park. While his offense was able to support him with 12 runs against Tampa Bay in the LDS, I don't see the Red Sox scoring that many times against Sanchez tonight.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Sanchez - He led the AL in ERA during the regular season, and has actually been more effective on the road. He has a 2.44 ERA away from Comerica Park and a 1.229 WHIP. The Red Sox have never faced him before. The Under is 55-31 in all road games during Sanchez's career. 2. Lester - He comes in with an 8-1 record in 14 starts at Fenway this season (12-2 TSR). His ERA at home is 3.03 with a 1.126 WHIP. The difference between Lester at home and Lester on the road is illustrated by his two starts this year against the Tigers. In Boston last month, he allowed just one run over seven innings, a game won 2-1 by the Red Sox. In Detroit earlier in the year, it was a 10-6 final with Lester allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings. 3. X-Factor - Detroit's offense is scuffling right now. They averaged just 3.4 runs per game in the Oakland series, batting .235 (.291 OBP). Going back further, they are averaging just 2.6 runs the last seven games (.209 BA). This is a team that struggled to score on the road consistently (4.5 runs/game). The Tigers are 94-69 Under in all road games this season, including 21-11 if the total is 7.5 runs or less. Selection: This is an Under play on Detroit-Boston (10*). |
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10-11-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
I'm taking the Over in Game 1 of the NLCS between the Dodgers and Cardinals. This shapes up as an excellent series on paper as these were the best two teams in the Senior Circuit all year. St. Louis' dominance was essentially spread out through the season as they finished with the best run differential while for a period of time, there was no hotter team (in baseball history?) than the Dodgers. For two offenses capable of putting lots of runs on the board, and no Adam Wainwright or Clayton Kershaw pitching, this total seems low to me.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Joe Kelly - In his LDS start, he allowed three runs and walked four batters in only 5 1/3 innings & that was against the Pirates weak-hitting lineup. Here he'll be facing a Dodgers team that averaged 6.5 runs per game against Atlanta while batting .333 and had a OBP of .387. 2. St. Louis vs. righties - The Cardinals dominated right-handed pitching all season long, going 80-43 while averaging more than five runs per game. As a team, they batted .274 vs. righties with a .333 OBP. Dodgers starter Zach Greinke is not as dominant on the road as he is at home and his lone LDS start went Over the total as well. 3. X-Factor - The Dodgers score more runs per game on the road (4.5/game) than at home. This shouldn't be too shocking as Chavez Ravine is pitcher friendly. They went Over in all four games vs. Atlanta. Selection - This is an Over play on LA Dodgers-St. Louis Cardinals (10*). |
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10-07-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
I'm taking the Under in Game 3 between the Red Sox and Rays. The first two games of this series have both gone Over, rather easily. This has mainly been because of the Red Sox offense, which has totaled 19 runs on its own, basically send the two games Over by themselves. But here at Tropicana Field in Tampa, against Rays starter Alex Cobb, I see their offense being less effective. Meanwhile, Boston will counter with Clay Buchholz, who has been very effective on the road this season. Look for a low-scoring game tonight in Tampa.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Cobb - He was spectacular in the AL Wild Card game, throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings against Cleveland. It was his third straight start that finished Under the total with opponents scoring just one run total during that time! His ERA over his last three starts is 0.41 and his WHIP is 0.955. He has not allowed any runs in his last two starts and not lost at home this season. Overall, he went 11-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 23 starts this season. 2. Buchholz - While Cobb hasn't lost at home this season, Buchholz has not lost on the road. So something will have to give Monday evening. Buchholz has a 1.40 ERA and 0.933 ERA in his seven starts away from Fenway Park and did not allow a single run in two starts this year vs. Tampa Bay, throwing a total of 13 scoreless innings. 3. X-Factor - Boston's offense has been the difference in this series so far, but their numbers this season at Tropicana Field are surprisingly poor. In nine games, they are batting just .209 and have an on-base percentage of .292. Selection: This is an Under play on Boston-Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-04-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
I'm also going with the Under this afternoon in the Boston-Tampa Bay game. The two teams' history, from the regular season, suggests we should expect a low-scoring game Friday. So too does a pitching matchup of Matt Moore vs. Jon Lester. Rays pitching has been pretty stellar throughout the year, but especially in the last two games where they've held the Rangers and Indians to just a pair of runs total (Cleveland shut out Wednesday night). Lester is Boston's #1 starter. The Red Sox are 28-14 Under in day games this year.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Lester - He was 7-1 in 13 home starts during the regular season with an 11-2 TSR. He had an ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.289. The last time he started here at Fenway saw him throw seven strong innings against Toronto, allowing just one run on five hits. It was his third straight start in Boston where he allowed only one earned run. Overall, he has gone 7-2 with a 2.57 ERA since the All Star Break, including 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA his last eight starts. The Under is 7-1 in his last eight October starts. 2. History - These teams have played ten times this season here at Fenway Park. The Under is a perfect 10-0 in those games and overall the Under went 14-5 in the 19 games played between them during the regular season. Going back further, the Under is 21-8 the last 29 matchups in Boston. 3. X-Factor - Rays starter Matt Moore does tend to do his best work on the road where his ERA is 2.74 and his WHIP is 1.289 over 16 starts. Unfortunately for him though, the team averages only 3.8 runs/game in the daytime. Selection: This is an Under play on Tampa Bay-Boston (10*). |
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10-02-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
I'm taking the Under in Wednesday night's AL Wild Card matchup between Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Both teams have done a solid job down the stretch in limiting their opponents scoring and that trend should continue tonight with a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb vs. Danny Salazar.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Danny Salazar - The Indians starter is only 23 years old, but probably is the future of the rotation. He turned in a 3.12 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He allowed only 18 earned runs and 44 hits with a 65-15 KW ratio in 52 innings. He limited opponents to a .226 batting average against & this will be the Rays first-ever look at him. The Under cashed in 7 of his 10 starts. 2. Alex Cobb - The Rays counter with Cobb, who went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts this year. Over his last three starts, he went 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA and 0.814 WHIP. He had a 26-5 KW ratio. In his final regular season start, which was at Yankees Stadium, he threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball. The Under cashed in each of his last two starts and is 11-5 in his career when he's working on 5 or 6 days rest. 3. X-Factor - In four of the six games played this season between the Rays & Indians, one of the teams was shutout! Selection: This is an Under play on Tampa Bay-Cleveland (10*). |
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
I'm taking the Under in the NL Wild Card matchup between the Reds and Pirates. It's a low number, but on paper we have an outstanding pitching matchup of Johnny Cueto vs. Francisco Liriano and neither team I feel is going to put up a lot of runs tonight. Pittsburgh was an Under team all season while Cincinnati's bats seem to have picked the wrong time to be in their worst stretch of the season. Playoff games tend to feature low scoring games to begin with and I think that's what we'll see here.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Lack of Hitting - Not only must the Reds deal with the lefty Liriano (they average just 3.9 runs/game vs. southpaws this season), but they come into the postseason not hitting well at all. They scored a grand total of eight runs during their five-game slide at the end of the regular season. Pirates pitching has allowed just 13 runs over the course of its last six games, but they've needed to be that good with an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball in runs scored. 2. Pitching Matchup - The Reds' Johnny Cueto has looked good since returning from a near three-month stint on the DL by allowing just one earned run over two starts. He has a 2.82 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in 11 starts overall in 2013. Against Pittsburgh, he's got a 2.37 ERA and 1.015 WHIP all-time. The Under is 31-12 in all of his starts since the start of the 2012 season. Liriano, while he's 0-3 this year vs. the Reds, has a 1.110 WHIP in four starts against them. His overall numbers remain very good, especially a 1.47 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 11 starts at PNC Park. 3. X-Factor - Over the last two seasons, the Pirates are 36-17 Under at home when the total is 7 runs or less. Selection: This is an Under play on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-28-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
I am taking the Under this afternoon as Pittsburgh tries to wrap up homefield advantage for next Tuesday's Wild Card game. A win Saturday would do just that as yesterday's surprising 4-1 victory put them two games up in the standings. That game obviously went Under and so too will this one as we have what looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup with Charlie Morton vs. Bronson Arroyo. The Pirates have been an Under team all season, ranking near the bottom 10 in offense in MLB, while the Reds offense has disappeared over the last few games as well.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Lack of Offense - The Pirates come in averaging just 3.9 runs/game. They are pretty consistently subpar across the board in all situations, and in fact are even a little worse when taking on a right-handed starter (3.8 runs/game). Over the last seven games, they are batting just .216 as a team. More troubling though has been the Reds offense disappearing during a three-game losing streak. They have scored just one run total in the last 22 innings and have scored only three times total in the last three games. They are batting just .196 as a team during this time. 2. Pitching Matchup - Pirates starter Charlie Morton has pitched remarkably well in the past here in Cincinnati. In his last three starts at Great American Ballpark, he has a 0.39 ERA and two of those were complete games. He didn't allow a single run in 5 1/3 innings the last time he faced the Reds, earlier this year, and also threw seven scoreless innings in his last start against the Chicago Cubs. Reds starter Bronson Arroyo has a 3.13 ERA and 1.093 WHIP at home this season, including 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA his last five starts here. 3. X-Factor - In the previous series between these teams (Sept 20-22), I was on the right side of the total in all three games! I had the Over in both Cincinnati victories and the Under in Pittsburgh's lone win. Selection: This is an Under play on Pittsburgh-Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-28-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 111 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
I'm going with the Over Saturday as the Angels meet the Rangers. After yesterday's results, Texas now trails both Cleveland and Tampa Bay by one game in the AL Wild Card race. They have won five in a row, including the first two games of this series, 6-5 and 5-3. They are averaging nearly seven runs per game during the win streak overall. Note that this game has been moved up to an early start time. In fact, the 11:05 AM local time start is the earliest in the history of the Ballpark in Arlington.
Here are my keys to the game: 1. Holland vs. Angels - While coming off a complete game shutout, Holland has not had that kind of success recently against the Angels. He's failed to make it past the sixth inning each of the last three times he's gone up against them, turning in an 8.41 ERA during that time. All three starts came this year and in the last one he allowed eight runs, granted only four earned, in just 5 2/3 innings. He's allowed 18 runs total in the three starts overall. Also note that the Over is 14-3 in Holland's starts if he allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last two starts. 2. Garrett Richards - It was an ugly last outing for the Angels starter as he gave up 7 runs in 4 2/3 innings as the team got beat 10-5 by Oakland. The last time Richards made a start here in Arlington, the result was an 11-10 final in favor of the Rangers. He allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings. 3. X-Factor - The Angels are actually a pretty solid team offensively on the road, scoring an average of 4.8 runs/game. They also are averaging 4.8 runs/game in day games this season, so the time change works to our favor here. Selection: This is an Over play on LA Angels-Texas (10*). |