Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-30-21 | Twins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Twins/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Minnesota is off a series with Detroit where the teams combined for 53 total runs including a slugfest on Wednesday that more closely resembled the kind of score you’d get from Vikings-Lions (17-14). But once again we’ve got an AL team heading to a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter from the lineup. Furthermore, Busch Stadium is a place where only 7.8 runs per game are averaged for the season. I see this one going Under as the Twins also have one of their better starters on the mound tonight. That starter would be Jose Berrios, who has a 0.75 WHIP over his L3 starts. His 4.05 ERA over the same timeframe is misleading as both runs allowed in his last start were unearned. Berrios has gone at least six innings in four consecutive starts and never allowed more than four hits. He should feast on a National League lineup, and a pretty weak one at that, which could only muster six runs in two games at an AL park (meaning they got to use a DH) earlier this week. Like the Twins, the Cardinals had yesterday off. I was in attendance when they lost 7-2 at Cleveland Wednesday afternoon. The Cards’ playoff hopes are pretty slim now, but here they are facing a last place team that has only 19 road wins all year. Look for Wade LeBlanc, who is 3-0 Under at home, to pitch better than expected tonight. The Under is 23-11-3 in St. Louis’ last 37 home games against a team with a losing record. 8* Under Twins/Cardinals |
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
free play |
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07-29-21 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Orioles/Tigers (7:05 ET): We’ve got two “also-rans” from the American League beginning a four-game series tonight in the Motor City. The hosts are coming off a somewhat insane 17-14 win in Minnesota yesterday afternoon, a score you’d expect from Lions-Vikings, not Tigers-Twins. All three games in that series went Over with yesterday obviously being the highest scoring of the bunch. (The first two games saw the teams exchange 6-5 victories). The Tigers are now 9-4 since the All-Star Break. Baltimore is in last place in the AL East and that is where they’ll be for the rest of the year. Their 2021 fate was sealed pretty early in the season. The Orioles are 30 games below .500 and have been outscored by 133 runs, but like the Tigers they are coming off a win here as they defeated Miami 8-7 on Wednesday. That matched the O’s highest scoring effort of the second half. They scored three times over the final two innings and are now actually 4-1 the L5 games overall. The thing to watch today is how long Tigers’ starter Casey Mize is asked to go. The team had been restricting his innings, but skipper AJ Hinch made a mistake by letting him come out for the fifth in his last outing. After tossing four shutout innings, Mize then allowed four runs in the fifth. Regardless of how long he goes tonight, we know that Detroit’s bullpen (5.04 ERA) isn’t good. Neither is Baltimore pitching. Alexander Wells will be making just his second career big league start in this one after allowing a pair of home runs in his debut. Runs should be plentiful tonight. 10* Over Orioles/Tigers |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Rockies/Angels (9:38 ET): Throughout their history, the Rockies have been defined by an extreme home vs. road dichotomy. Playing their home games in the thin air of Denver, it’s rather easy to understand. But this year, things have been taken to the extreme as they are 11-37 in road games. They average just 3.0 rpg outside of Coors Field while batting a collective .209. But this series with the Angels figured to be different. Not only is it an AL park where they can benefit from the use of a designated hitter, but the Halos surrender 5.1 runs here at home. I’m on the Over in this one. They scored just two runs on Monday, but last night saw the Rockies “bust loose” for 12 in a rare win away from home. They had 16 hits. Tonight they’ll face Andrew Heaney, who is 13-3 Over in all starts for the Angels this season. While Heaney pitched well in Minnesota last Thursday, that was after he went 1-4 with an 8.79 ERA his previous five starts. On the flip side, the Angels average 5.5 rpg at home, which is one of the highest averages in baseball. So they should do better at the plate than they did last night. It helps to face Chi Chi Gonzalez. The Over is 10-3 in Gonzalez’s last 13 starts and there have been four times where he allowed 6+ runs. He “only” allowed four his last time out, but that was in just five innings and the game ended up being 9-6 when it was all said and done (Rockies won). Including both games of this series, the Over is 12-2-2 the L16 times the Halos have been favored in Interleague play. 10* Over Rockies/Angels |
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07-25-21 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Cardinals/Reds (1:10 ET): Cincinnati can make it seven in a row over St. Louis with a win on Sunday. They’ve captured the first two games of this series by scores of 6-5 and 5-3. This comes on the heels of winning all four games at Busch Stadium last month. The results of the L2 days have to be terribly disappointing for a Cardinals team that had won five of six going into this series, which had them back over .500. Cincy may have the “momentum,” but I feel the “safest” bet for Sunday’s finale - due to the pitching matchup and how most Reds’ home games have gone this season - is to take the Over. Reds’ home games have averaged 11.0 runs this season. That’s the most for any team - even more than Colorado at Coors Field and Toronto (who has played at Spring Training/minor league facilities). It’s a combination of a strong offense (5.4 rpg) and shaky pitching (5.6 rpg allowed). The Reds got a better than expected start from Luis Castillo on Saturday, but I do NOT expect that to be the case today with Sonny Gray. He was really roughed up by St. Louis back on April 23rd when he gave up five runs on six hits. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings. It’s not like that was some aberration either. Last time out, Gray again gave up five runs on six hits (this time in 4 ⅔ innings) to Milwaukee. The Cardinals aren’t in much better shape on the mound this afternoon as they’ll send out Johan Oviedo, who has a horrifying 0-10 team start record vs the NL Central in his career. It’s not as if he’s been unlucky either as his ERA in those 10 starts is 5.21. He’s averaged less than five innings per start as well. Oviedo is also winless this year (against everybody!) with an 0-5 record in 12 starts. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.973 WHIP on the road. Neither bullpen is all that good either. 10* Over Cardinals/Reds |
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07-24-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
9* Under Rangers/Astros (7:10 ET): Texas has been just dreadful since the All-Star Break, losing all eight of its games by a combined score of 71-13! Going back to BEFORE the break, they’ve lost 10 in a row. It was more of the same last night as they fell to the Astros 7-3 in the series opener. Houston scored all seven of its runs in two innings, so there was some “cluster luck” involved. But considering the fact the Rangers absolutely stink on the road (13-38 this year!) and the Astros are now north of -200 on the ML, this should be another easy win for the home team. But as good as the AL West leaders are (#2 in my power ratings), I’m not looking to bet them on the ML today. It’s tempting, but the price is just too high. I think the Under is a much better value here as you know the Rangers aren’t going to score many runs and the Astros aren’t likely to score as many as they did last night. The likelihood that the home team won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead) would also be beneficial to an Under play as the better team will only come up to bat eight times. Texas has its best starter on the mound Saturday in Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a 2.86 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 18 starts. While he’s been better in Arlington (compared to on the road), you can generally count on a quality start from him. Now he has struggled in B2B starts, especially the last one, but he also allowed 2 ER or less in 15 of his first 17 starts this season. That includes 3 for 3 in quality starts vs. the Astros (1.89 ERA in 19 IP). I think we should also see Houston’s Framber Valdez pitch better than he has recently. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his 10 starts this season. 9* Under Rangers/Astros |
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07-24-21 | White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Under White Sox/Brewers (7:10 ET): This should be a good old fashioned “pitchers duel” on Saturday as we’ve got Carlos Rodon set to face Corbin Burnes. Rodon comes in sporting an 8-3 record (11-5 TSR) with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Burnes is 5-4 (8-8 TSR), but that record completely undersells just how well he has pitched in 2021 as he has a 2.06 ERA and 0.886 WHIP. Lately, Burnes has been on the top of his game by allowing just three runs in his L4 starts, which have spanned 27 ⅓ innings. Last time out, he threw 8 1/3 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts, a game the Brew Crew won 8-0. The White Sox average 5.3 runs per game on the road, but in this series they must deal with the same disadvantage that every AL team faces when they hit the road in Interleague Play -- no designated hitter in the lineup. Without the DH, they were held to just one run in last night’s series opener and it didn’t come until the eighth inning. They never sent more than five men to the plate in any inning. Four times they were three up, three down. It’s difficult to envision them doing much tonight against a starting pitcher that has an incredible 140-16 KW rate on the season. Milwaukee is not a great offensive team by any stretch. They are actually dead last among NL teams in batting average. At home, that average dips to .218. The seven runs they scored last night is a little misleading as they had one big six-run inning (thanks to a grand slam). Just like Burnes, Rodon is coming off an exemplary performance. He tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball on Sunday, with 10 strikeouts, and that was against the Astros (#1 team in rpg!). It was the 12th time (in 16 starts) this season that Rodon allowed 1 ER or less. He is on a streak of 10 straight starts with 8+ strikeouts, which is a club record. 10* Under White Sox/Brewers |
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07-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/Mets (7:10 ET): Toronto is a team that ought to have a better record. They’ve outscored opponents by 83 runs this season, which is the top differential in the AL East. Yet here they sit at just 48-44 on the year and are in fourth place. The second half started well enough as they swept Texas, including a pair of shutouts in a doubleheader on Sunday (1st time they’d done that in franchise history). But their residency in Buffalo ended poorly as they were beaten twice by Boston this week, 13-4 and 7-4. Now they are set to take on another first place team, that being the Mets. Like Toronto, the Mets were idle yesterday. They are coming off a 7-0 shutout of the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. The Mets’ lead in the NL East is currently at four games over both Philadelphia & Atlanta. What I find most intriguing about handicapping this ballclub is that they are #2 in all of MLB in fewest runs allowed. But they have also scored the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. On average, no team’s games are lower scoring than are the Mets (7.7 rpg). Tonight they are facing an American League club forced to play without the DH. So another low-scoring game would seem to be in the cards. The Blue Jays have thrived in Interleague Play this season, going 13-2. That’s the best such record in all of baseball. They’re allowing just 3.6 rpg vs. NL foes. Steven Matz will be the starter on Friday and he’s coming off five shutout innings vs. Texas last weekend. But of course, Toronto’s scoring goes way down when they hit the road and now they don’t even have a DH. Mets’ starter Tylor Megill also didn’t allow a run in his most recent start (went six innings) and visiting teams here at Citi Field are hitting only .190 for the year and scoring 2.5 rpg. Take the Under in this one. 8* Under Blue Jays/Mets |
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07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
8* Under Rangers/Tigers (1:10 ET): Suffice to say, we can probably count on the Rangers not scoring many runs Thursday afternoon. This team is in a terrible way right now as they’ve dropped all six of its games since the All-Star Break and eight straight overall. The last three losses have come here in Detroit where the Tigers have won six in a row since the break. Five of those six wins have seen the Tigers allow two runs or less. That includes all three games in this series. Meanwhile, Texas has scored only six runs in its last seven games. I don’t trust the Tigers’ offense either, so Under is the obvious call here. The Under has cashed in nearly 62% of Tigers’ home games this season. They held the Rangers to just five hits last night in what was a 4-2 victory. Believe it or not, that was their NINTH straight game with six or fewer hits. This team just can’t hit. They’ve fallen to 27th in batting average, 29th in OBP, 28th in slugging and 29th in OPS. I can’t sell Tyler Alexander, the Tigers’ starter for Thursday, as being anything special. But right now, the Rangers are seemingly a great matchup for ANY starting pitcher. The key here is Mike Foltynewicz giving SOMETHING resembling a decent start for Texas. It has been a dreadful season for Foltynewicz and his last start was a low-point. But he’d been fairly decent in his four previous starts. Three of them were quality, meaning he made it at least six innings while also allowing 3 ER or less. The key will be limiting home runs, which admittedly has been a problem. All four of Detroit’s runs yesterday came off home runs. But I think Foltynewicz will surprise and keep the ball in the park. 8* Under Rangers/Tigers |
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07-21-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Over Marlins/Nationals (7:05 ET): This series has gone poorly for the last place Marlins. They lost 18-1 on Monday. Things weren’t nearly as rough last night, but they still lost 6-3. The Fish are now 15 games below .500 (40-55), though they have a reasonable YTD run differential (-4). They are 5.5 games back of the Nats, who have now won three in a row after suffering through a six-game losing streak that straddled the All-Star Break. The Over is 10-2 their last 12 games, including 5-0 the L5 and this one should go Over as well. The pitching matchup looks pretty dreadful here. Starting for Miami will be Jordan Holloway. He’s made only three starts, but they haven’t gone well nor have they lasted very long. Holloway has gone a total of 9 ⅔ innings in those three starts and has allowed 11 runs. Starting here for Washington will be Erick Fedde. He’s been beat up pretty good in three of his last four starts. The most recent was the worst of the bunch as Fedde was charged with six runs after going just 1 ⅓ IP. That last Fedde start was the infamous 24-8 loss to San Diego. Earlier, I mentioned the six-game losing streak for the Nats. There were three times during that streak that they allowed 10+ runs. Now they’ve scored 32 of their own in the L3 games. Miami hasn’t done much scoring at all during a current five-game losing streak, but is probably “due” here. Holloway is only starting because Sandy Alcantara was placed on the bereavement list. The respective offenses should rule the day here. 10* Over Marlins/Nationals |
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07-21-21 | Mets v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Mets/Reds (12:35 ET): Yesterday was the first time since the All-Star Break that Cincinnati won. They did so by beating the Mets 4-3. That was definitely a departure from the previous four games in which they were outscored 41-21. They got a strong effort from starter Wade Miley, who gave up just one run in 6 ⅓ innings. But Miley obviously won’t be pitching against today. Instead, the Reds will send Jeff Hoffman to the mound. Eight of his nine starts have gone Over and he has a 2.033 WHIP in the L3. The Mets had scored 29 runs in the three games previous to last night’s loss, including a 15-11 win here in the series opener. The Mets’ record since the Break is just 2-3 as they dropped two of three in Pittsburgh and have split two games here. This is far from the National League’s best offensive team, but they should get to Hoffman, who has control issues and often doesn’t last very long. The Reds’ bullpen is also very bad, especially at home where its ERA is 6.09 and blown half its save opportunities. Totals in this series have been high as they should be. Reds’ games, on average, are among the highest scoring in the league. They average 5.5 rpg themselves while also giving up 5.6. Mets’ games aren’t typically that high scoring, but it’s notable the number of runs per game they allow on the road jumps up to 5.0. Wednesday starter Marcus Stroman hasn’t lasted longer than five innings in any of his last five starts. The Mets’ bullpen, similar to Cincinnati’s, isn’t very good. They have a 5.04 ERA on the road. You saw the 15-11 score from Monday and while this game may not be nearly as high-scoring, it will go Over. 8* Over Mets/Reds |
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07-20-21 | Royals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Royals/Brewers (4:10 ET): Kansas City comes in as the second lowest scoring team in the American League. Now they’ll be without a DH as they pay a visit to Milwaukee, who happens to be a top five team in all of baseball when it comes to the fewest number of runs allowed. Throw in the fact that it’s an all-lefty starting pitching matchup for Tuesday and I think all signs point to this being a pretty low-scoring matchup. Take the Under. The Brewers actually have revenge here as they dropped two games in KC back in May. However, since that time, the bottom has really dropped out on the Royals. They were 20-22 following those two wins over the Brew Crew two months ago. They’ve subsequently gone 17-33 the L50 games. Today they’ll face Eric Lauer, who has a 0.98 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts. It should be a long day at the plate for the road team as they are averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road to begin with. They have not homered in 10 days. But it should be pointed out that even though they started the second half by scoring 26 runs in a three-game sweep of the Reds, Milwaukee is not a great hitting team. They are dead last in the NL with a .223 batting average. The fact they are 6th in runs scored is surprising given that average. They had some real “cluster luck” against the Reds with five different innings of 3+ runs. I realize Mike Minor’s numbers haven’t been great for Kansas City, but here he’s facing a team that hits just .216 in its home park! 10* Under Royals/Brewers |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:08 ET): It took them eight tries, but the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox last night. That YTD head to head record of 1-7 is in stark contrast to the previous two seasons when the Yanks were 23-6 against their hated rivals. An important note about last night’s game. Rain was a major factor and the game was actually called after six innings. So the fact the final score was 3-1 was a little misleading. Expect a lot more runs to be scored tonight and for this one to go Over the total. Boston won’t have to worry about Gerritt Cole again tonight. Cole pitched the entirety of the game for the Yankees last night and had 11 strikeouts. It’s an obvious downgrade on the mound tonight when the Yankees will start Jameson Taillon. The Over is 11-5 in all Taillon starts this season including 3-0 the L3. He hasn’t necessarily given up that many runs of late, but he has allowed five home runs in those last three outings. When Taillon faced Boston earlier in the year, it wound up being a 7-3 loss. Martin Perez will start for the Red Sox. Like Taillon, he served up two home runs in his most recent outing. That ended up being an 11-2 loss to Philadelphia. He has a 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts. The Yankees have had their issues scoring this season, but managed three runs in 3 ⅔ innings when they faced Perez back on June 25th. I realize that only four total runs have been scored each of the last two days, but Boston averages more than that per game by themselves and this game won’t be halted after six innings like last night. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees |
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07-16-21 | Rays v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
10* Under Rays/Braves (7:20 ET): Here it’s an American League team coming up to bat in a National League park, so that means no DH for Tampa Bay. Now they do a pretty good job at scoring runs away from home (5.3 per game). But the vast majority of those have come with the DH in the lineup. While Atlanta averages that same number at home and there’s no DH, expect that number to start coming down in the second half. Remember that they have lost Ronald Acuna Jr to a season-ending ACL injury. I like both starting pitchers in this matchup, so Under is the call. The Braves were busy during the All-Star Break, acquiring Joc Pederson from the Cubs in exchange for a minor league prospect. But there’s no replacing Acuna, who led the team in batting average, home runs and OBP. Unfortunately for Atlanta, their “pain” is Tampa Bay’s “gain” here, specifically for Rays starter Michael Wacha. In his last two starts, Wacha has been great as he’s surrendered just one run in 11 IP. He’s also given up just five hits. The Rays come into the second half trailing the Red Sox by 1.5 games in the AL East, though I think they’re the better team. They usually do well in Interleague games, however here they are up against Charlie Morton, who is 8-3 in his 18 starts this season and boasts a 0.927 WHIP in the last three. Last time out, Morton tossed seven shutout innings of two hit ball. That was the third time in his last five starts that Morton went at least 7 IP and did not allow a single run. In five career starts vs. TB, he has a 3.23 ERA. 10* Under Rays/Braves |
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07-10-21 | Nationals v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Nationals/Giants (4:05 ET): These teams have now played five times this season. All five games have gone Under. It was a 5-3 Giants win on Friday, The previous series, which took place in D.C., was REALLY low-scoring. Three of the games ended in shutouts and none saw more than five total runs scored. Armed with that knowledge, I’ll look for the Nationals & Giants to go Under again Saturday afternoon. Only the Mets allow a fewer number of runs per game than do the Giants. Anthony DeSclafani has NEVER posted double digit wins in a single season. He could achieve it for the first time here, before we even hit the All-Star Break. His last three starts have all gone Under with him posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.968 WHIP. He did allow three solo home runs against the Dodgers on 6/28. But other than that, he’s been pretty spotless. He was one out away from a complete game in his last start. In 16 of his 17 starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed 3 ER or less. You can count on him here. The Nationals had a four-game Over streak end yesterday. Now Saturday starter Jon Lester has his own four-game Over streak coming into this game. It’s been a rough stretch, but Lester also had a five-start stretch from late May through mid-June when he allowed 2 ER or less every time out. Three of the runs he was charged with last time out were unearned. In six regular season starts vs. the Giants, Lester is 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA. Look for the Under trend with these teams to continue. 10* Under Nationals/Giants |
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07-09-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
8* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Angels have won six of seven, scoring 6.1 rpg and hitting nearly .300 as a team. Most of those games came at home, however. Now they hit the road where their scoring average drops to 4.3 rpg for the year. They head to Seattle to face a Mariners team that is no offensive powerhouse in its own right. The Mariners have been unable to top four runs in any of their last five games (did win yday) and are hitting a paltry .203 at home for the season! Take the Under here. Overall, Seattle is dead last in all of MLB in team batting average and on base percentage. They are 29th (next to last) in OPS. I’ve been through this before, but it is a miracle that they are four games above .500 on the season, given their run differential (which is now -50). I look for LA starter Alex Cobb, who has a 0.98 WHIP his L3 starts, to pitch well tonight. Marco Gonzales, who did not look good against Texas last weekend, will start this game for the M’s. I faded Gonzales in that spot last week as he was coming off a stint on the paternity list. With a start under his belt, he should pitch better here. He has certainly pitched well in the past vs. the Angels, going 8-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Seattle is only allowing 4.0 rpg at home this season with visiting teams batting just .219. 8* Under Angels/Mariners |
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07-09-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Reds/Brewers (8:10 ET): Milwaukee seemed to be at a disadvantage going into yday’s series opener with the Reds as they had just played a doubleheader the previous day (split with the Mets). But they were able to prevail 5-3, thus partly getting revenge for a sweep they suffered at the hands of Cincinnati last month here at home. The Brew Crew lead the NL Central right now with a seven-game lead over the second place Reds. My view is that tonight’s game is likely to be higher scoring than yesterday. Take the Over. Scoring runs has not been an issue for the Reds in 2021. In fact, they are 2nd in the NL in runs scored, only trailing the Dodgers.They’d been better at run suppression lately, but the troubled bullpen (5.28 ERA) could not hold the lead last night. Wade Miley gets the start Friday. While he allowed only two runs his last time out, he did give up 10 hits. That one went Under, but his previous six starts had all gone Over the total. The Over is 10-5 in all Miley starts this season. Eric Lauer is off B2B quality starts for Milwaukee. But the last time he faced the Reds, Lauer gave up four runs in five innings and Milwaukee lost 10-2. Four of his last five starts have gone Over the total. Things didn’t go any better for Lauer when he faced the Reds last August as he gave up six runs in three innings. Both of these starters are lefties. The Reds are 7-2 Over L9 road games vs. a lefty. The Brewers are 7-2-1 their L10 home games vs. a lefty. 8* Over Reds/Brewers |
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Phillies/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Coming off a four-game series in which they scored a total of 39 runs, the Phillies now get to use the DH as they visit Boston this weekend. Of course, the Phils give up their fair share of runs as well. They may not have given up any yesterday (won 8-0), but that was to a Cubs team that can’t score right now. In three of the previous nine games, Phillies pitching surrendered 11 or more runs. The Red Sox have scored the 2nd most runs in all of MLB, so this one is likely going Over. Boston wasn’t as successful in its last series, which saw them drop two of three to the Angels. However, barring a terrible weekend, they are likely to head into the All-Star Break in first place in the AL East. I’m not concerned about their ability to score runs Friday, but what they need to be concerned about is starter Garrett Richards, who has been very poor of late. Richards has an 8.02 ERA and 2.107 WHIP his L3 starts. It’s not like his season-long numbers are much better either. Richards really seems to struggle here at Fenway Park where he has a 6.75 ERA and 2.079 WHIP. These teams played three games in Philadelphia earlier in the season. Only one of the three games saw more than 11 runs scored, but remember that was without a DH in play. Richards did not pitch in any of the three games for Boston. Neither did Vince Velasquez for Philly. Velasquez’s numbers aren’t quite as poor as Richards, but he did just allow 5 ER in his last start. In seven of the Phillies last 10 games, the winning team has had to score at least eight runs. The Over is 5-0 their L5 games. 8* Over Phillies/Red Sox |
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07-08-21 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 10 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Phillies/Cubs (8:05 ET): This has been a high-scoring series with every game seeing a minimum of 11 total runs scored. The Phillies exceeded that number themselves in each of the first two games. The good news for the Cubs is they FINALLY snapped their long losing streak (had reached 11 games) with an 8-3 win last night. The first inning was key for Chicago on Wednesday as they scored three unearned runs with two outs. There was a Phillies error followed by four straight soft singles. I don’t think they can count on that happening again and the Phils are due to start cooling off at the plate as well. Take the Under here. The first two games of this series saw Philadelphia score 28 runs. It was the first time they scored 10+ runs in B2B games in over six years. So it wasn’t a shock then to see them reduced to scoring only three runs yesterday. They face Adbert Alzolay tonight. Don’t be fooled by the fact Alzolay has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. He’s off a quality effort last time out against the Reds, who are a good offensive team. In that start, Alzolay allowed just three runs on five hits. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Phillies have been off a loss. All eight runs scored by the Cubs yesterday came with two outs. So it wasn’t just the first inning that saw them get a bit lucky. Prior to the L2 days, this is a team that had scored three runs or less in 17 of 21 games. So after them scoring 18 runs in the L2 games, I’d certainly expect a substantial decrease in production tonight. Zach Eflin starts for the Phillies here. He not only has a 2.81 ERA in four career starts vs. the Cubs, but is also coming off B2B quality starts. Eflin held the Mets and Padres to just three runs and eight hits in 12 IP. The Under is 9-3 for the Cubs if they scored 5+ runs their previous game. 10* Under Phillies/Cubs |
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07-06-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Yankees/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Yankees are underachieving at the moment with seven losses in their last nine games. They’ve been booed off the field by their own fans and are just a game above .500 as we near the All-Star Break. With three teams ahead of them in the American League East and a 10.5 game gap between them and the first place Red Sox, there is plenty of work to be done. They could start by scoring more runs. Did you know that they’ve scored the fewest number of runs among all AL teams this season? I’ve written about it before, but Seattle is MLB’s biggest overachiever in the first half of the season. They have a YTD run differential of -42. Based on said run differential, you’d “expect” them to have a WL record of 38-47. Instead, they are 45-40, largely on the back of a 19-7 record in one-run games and 9-1 record in extra innings. Both those records are MLB’s best. The gap between the Mariners’ expected and actual win total is the largest in all of MLB. They are due for a downturn and the bottom line is you should expect them to fall out of playoff contention in the second half. For this series opener, I’m going with the Over. Both teams do have their issues offensively, but you’ve got to look at the two starters for Tuesday. Justus Sheffield has really struggled of late for Seattle with a 9.45 ERA and 2.176 WHIP his L3 starts. Going back further, he hasn’t lasted a full six innings in any of his L7 starts, a span in which his ERA is 7.09 and his WHIP is 1.97. So he’s been struggling for a while now. Speaking of struggling, Jameson Taillon has been downright awful on the road for the Yankees. He has a 11.12 ERA and 2.118 WHIP outside the Bronx and all five of those starts have gone Over the total. 10* Over Yankees/Mariners |
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07-03-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
8* Under Cubs/Reds (4:10 ET): The Cubs lost for the seventh straight yesterday, 2-1 to the Reds. It was also the fifth time during the losing streak that they were held to 1 or 2 runs. Cincinnati has now won B2B games (both by 1 run) for the 1st time since 6/22-24. The teams are now separated by just one-half game in the NL Central and have identical YTD run differentials (-3). I look for today to be another low-scoring game at Great American Ballpark as four of the last six meetings between these clubs have seen six or fewer total runs scored. Take the Under. The Cubs come in with poor offensive numbers to begin with, particularly on the road where they are hitting a collective .214 and scoring only 3.7 rpg. As I said earlier, they’ve been in a real offensive slump and it actually extends beyond just the current seven-game slide. Since July 13th, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer a total of 14 times. That’s out of 17 games. So even though Tyler Mahle typically pitches better on the road than at home for the Reds, look for him to pitch well today against a struggling lineup. Over his last seven starts, Mahle has a 0.966 WHIP. Admittedly, the Reds’ offense is usually pretty good at home. But they haven’t topped five runs in any of their last four games and yesterday they could manage only four hits. They’ve also struck out 10 or more times in five of the last seven games. So Adbert Alzolay, who allowed a season-high in runs last time out, should bounce back Saturday afternoon. The last time Alzolay faced the Reds, he tossed 5 ⅔ scoreless innings and the Cubs won 1-0. He’ll need to be that good again considering the lack of run support he’s likely to get. 8* Under Cubs/Reds |
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07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* Under Astros/Indians (7:05 ET): I tried with the Under on this matchup last night and sadly playing after the line moved was costly. The O/U line opened at 9.0, but dropped to 8.5. In the end, Houston won 7-2. Most of the scoring occurred early and really the result was determined by one swing of the bat, that being a Jose Altuve grand slam. While that swing of the bat was not welcomed by me or the Indians, it certainly was for an Astros team that had just gotten swept by Baltimore (at home!) and scored three runs or less in five of their previous six games. But I wouldn’t expect Houston to go for that many again tonight. Take the Under again here. Cleveland is not a particularly good offensive team. They are 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in on base percentage. They scored only two runs yesterday and have just nine in their last 23 innings. This despite hitting four home runs (all solo) in one of the games Wednesday. In their last 10 games, they’ve had more than eight hits just once. Six of those games have seen them finish with six or fewer hits. So expect Lance McCullers Jr to pitch well tonight for Houston. It’s not like McCullers isn’t doing well enough on his own. He’s allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine consecutive outings. Now Sam Hentges did not pitch well his last time out for Cleveland. He gave up six runs in just three innings, a game the Tribe ended up losing 8-2. But Hentges had been fairly solid before that, including five shutout innings vs. Pittsburgh on 6/20. Houston is batting just .208 its L7 games. I do not think they’re going to be able to maintain a scoring average of 5.9 rpg on the road for a full season. So let’s go with the Under again tonight and hope there are no more grand slams. 8* Under Astros/Indians |
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07-01-21 | Mets v. Braves OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
8* Over Mets/Braves (7:20 ET): I took the Over in Jacob deGrom’s last start and won as he allowed a season-high TWO runs against Philadelphia. He figures to allow at least a couple today facing a Braves lineup that just put TWENTY on the board in yesterday’s game. That snapped a five-game Under streak for Atlanta and was the same number of runs they had scored in their previous seven games - combined. It was a bit of an aberration and obviously they probably won’t even score a quarter of that tonight. But I do like the Over again here as deGrom’s last three starts have all gone that way. For what it’s worth, Atlanta does average 5.5 runs per game here at home. That’s top five in all of baseball. While they could muster only one hit the last time they saw deGrom (10 days ago), they only faced him for five innings. They ended up scoring two runs in the game. deGrom has lasted more than six innings only one time in his last nine starts. So the Braves figure to get a decent number of cracks against a Mets’ bullpen they hammered for 14 runs yesterday. The Mets’ bullpen ERA on the road this year is 5.11. deGrom isn’t going to give up a ton of runs, but the ridiculous season that he’s having is likely to have a “speed bump” or two. Of course, the Mets could also help us out here by scoring more runs. They’ve been held to just 19 runs in the L7 games and it feels like they are due to breakout against Ian Anderson, who has seen the Over hit in six of his seven home starts this season. Braves’ home games average 10.3 rpg. The Over is 22-8-1 when the Mets are road favorites. 8* Over Mets/Braves |
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07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Padres/Reds (7:10 ET): Here’s a matchup I won last night by taking San Diego. They won 7-5 in a rain shortened game (called after six innings) and now have a chance to sweep the Reds for the second time in three weeks. They are 6-0 vs. Cincinnati in 2021, but interestingly enough are NOT favored to win tonight. This despite facing a starting pitcher with a 4-12 TSR. But Luis Castillo (the Reds’ starter in question) has been MUCH better of late and should help keep this game relatively low-scoring. With the teams combining for 12 runs in just 5 ⅓ innings last night, you may find it a bit curious to come back and take the Under the next day. But note those 12 runs came on just 12 hits. San Diego got a grand slam, which doesn’t happen every day, and that one swing of the bat accounted for the bulk of its runs. I mentioned earlier how Castillo has been much better of late. He held San Diego to three runs in six innings back on 6/20. He also has twice thrown seven scoreless innings in his L3 starts. His L5 starts have seen him allow a total of 6 ER. So look the other way when it comes to Castillo’s record. He’s pitching very well of late. San Diego’s Ryan Weathers has a 2.78 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in eight starts this season. The numbers get even better in his four starts on the road (2.30, 0.893). This will be his first start since June 7th as he’s taking the injured Dinelson Lamet’s spot in the rotation. Usually, you might not have a lot of confidence in a “fill-in” starter, but I like Weathers’ resume. The Reds have never faced him before and they hit just .228 off LH starters. Under is 33-16-4 in the Padres’ last 53 games when the total is 9.0 to 10.5. 8* Under Padres/Reds |
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07-01-21 | Astros v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Astros/Indians (7:10 ET): I won with the Under in the Astros’ game last night. I was right that Baltimore, who had scored 22 runs in the first two games of that series, would see its scoring decrease. It did as Houston held them to five runs (four of those coming in the first). That was more than I expected them to allow. Thankfully though, the ‘Stros only scored two of their own as their offense has gone dormant the last several games.. They’ve scored three runs or less in five of the last six games. I’m going with the Under again tonight as Cleveland is hardly a reputable offensive ballclub. The Indians played a doubleheader yesterday and lost both games (here at home) to the Tigers. Their offense could manage only eight hits in the two games. I don’t really like their chances of doing much damage at the plate here against Framber Valdez, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Valdez has a 2.11 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in six starts. Going back to the end of last year, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 11 straight starts. He allowed a season-high 3 ER last time out (at Detroit), but two of those came on one pitch. The Indians actually homered four times in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, but all were solo shots. Rest assured they won’t be repeating that long-ball performance today. They only got runners in scoring position five times in the two games. This team is 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in OBP. As far as keeping Houston in check, Jean Carlos Mejia’s job as Cleveland’s starter may be easier than you think based on the Astros’ recent offensive slump. Also, Mejia is coming off his best start to date as he allowed only one run in six innings of work. 8* Under Astros/Indians |
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06-30-21 | Orioles v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston has been shocked by Baltimore each of the last two games, losing 9-7 and 13-3. They were massive favorites on the ML in both losses (-325 and -290). In each instance, the bullpen was to blame as that group has given up 18 of the 22 runs allowed in this series. So a strong effort is needed today from starter Luis Garcia and thankfully he has a 1.78 ERA and 0.991 WHIP at home this season. I’m going with the Under here as Baltimore won’t be scoring as many runs today, but the money line is still too high. Monday’s game really had no business going Over. It was 4-4 headed into the ninth, but then the Orioles went off for a five-run 9th followed by the Astros scoring three of their own. Yesterday saw the O’s homer four times and nine of their runs came in the final two innings. Playing 20 games in 20 days has obviously adversely affected Houston, but they can lean on Garcia tonight as he has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season. Now Matt Harvey could be the “fly in the ointment” with this Under play as he is having a terrible year for Baltimore. But with Houston scoring three runs or fewer in four of its last five games, maybe this is the spot where Harvey steps up. He only allowed 3 ER in 5 ⅔ IP his last time out. Even if the Astros score five or six runs in this game, it still should stay Under as I just can’t see the Orioles going off again. They average only 3.9 runs per game on the road. 10* Under Orioles/Astros |
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06-29-21 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Twins/White Sox (8:10 ET): Mother nature would not allow this series to begin as scheduled on Monday. So after a rainout, things get underway Tuesday with Lucas Giolito going for the White Sox and Kenta Maeda going for the Twins. This looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup as both guys are well rested. Giolito dominated the Twins the one time he faced them earlier in the year. He went eight innings and allowed just one run on two hits. He also had 11 strikeouts in the 2-1 win. Maeda is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in four career starts vs. the White Sox, all of which have been here in Chicago. Take the Under. Maeda has also made one previous start against the White Sox this year. In it, he allowed three runs and four hits over five innings. Not his best effort, but still pretty good. Last time out, Maeda allowed just two runs on five hits in 5 ⅓ IP. That makes it six straight starts from him where he allowed three or fewer runs. The White Sox have actually been struggling of late, losing seven of their last nine games. They’ve topped four runs just one time in that stretch. So look for Maeda to pitch well on Tuesday as it’s been nearly two weeks since Chicago had 10 or more hits in a game. The Twins are off B2B wins where they scored eight runs in both games. But we should see them cool off here against Giolito, who has allowed more than 3 ER in only four of his 15 starts this year. The Over is actually 3-0 in Giolito’s last three starts, but that’s mostly because of good run support. He has a 1.00 WHIP in those three starts, never factoring into a decision. The Under is 15-6-2 in the White Sox last 23 home games where they are allowing only 3.3 rpg this season. 10* Under Twins/White Sox |
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06-27-21 | A's v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over A’s/Giants (4:05 ET): Thanks to extra innings, these teams combined to go Over the total on Saturday. The Giants won the game 6-5 (total was 8.0) and now go for the sweep on Sunday. They won 2-0 on Friday, so runs have been fairly hard to come by for both teams. Maybe that’s not all that surprising for the A’s, who don’t get to utilize the designated hitter in this interleague series. But the Giants average 5.1 runs per game at home and the Over is 12-4-1 here their L17 games vs. AL teams. Take the Over today. It’s a battle of southpaws on the mound Sunday, which often has me thinking the other way (Under) as many teams struggle against left-handed pitching. But not the Giants, who are scoring 5.2 rpg when facing a LH starter. They are 12-3-1 their L16 interleague games vs. a lefty. It will be Cole Irvin that they face today. Irvin has a 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts and he’s allowed four runs each of the last two starts, despite not making it through six innings either time. The Giants are averaging 7.4 rpg in their L9 contests. Sammy Long will go for San Francisco today. Long made his first ever big league start back last Sunday and it went well with him allowing only two runs and four hits in 6 IP. But the game vs. Philadelphia still (easily) went Over as it was an 11-2 win for the Giants. Oakland’s hitters are likely to test Long more than the Phillies did. The A’s have scored more runs this season on the road than at home and they are now 6-1 Over their last seven games at San Fran. 10* Over A’s/Giants |
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06-26-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Phillies/Mets (4:10 ET): This may seem a bit crazy with the incomparable Jacob deGrom pitching today for the Mets. In what has been one of the greatest pitching efforts in MLB history, deGrom has allowed a TOTAL of FOUR earned runs all season (also three unearned). His 0.50 ERA would be a record. The last time deGrom allowed a run to score was May 25th. He’s working on a 27-inning scoreless streak coming into today. On top of deGrom pitching, these teams combined for just six runs total in yesterday’s doubleheader and both games went an extra inning (still only 8 inning games). So the numbers definitely do not favor what I am picking here. But deGrom has been dealing with right shoulder soreness and that has limited him to just eight combined innings in his last two starts. Once he’s out of the game, the Phillies will have their chances to score runs. Interestingly enough, when the Phillies faced deGrom earlier this year, they were shutout for six innings. But after deGrom left, they rallied for a 5-3 win. With the total being this low, we don’t need a ton of runs from the Phillies today. Or maybe the Mets can send this one Over by themselves? They’ll be facing Zach Eflin, who has really struggled for the Phillies as of late. Eflin allowed seven runs in his last start, a game the Phils lost 11-2. Eflin has been particularly bad on the road where he has an ERA of 6.26. The Over is 9-4 in the Phillies’ last 13 road games with a total of 6.5 or lower. I really do think there’s a chance that the Mets can send this one Over themselves. But I also look for the Phillies to get on the board today as well. 10* Over Phillies/Mets |
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Mariners/White Sox (8:10 ET): I also like the Under in this game. Rodon is obviously a big reason for that. The Mariners are 29th in team batting average, last in on base percentage and 29th in OPS. So they are simply not going to score many runs tonight. Honestly, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get blanked. But with Kikuchi on the hill, they won’t give up a ton of runs either. Kikuchi has allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine straight starts and he’s given up just one run total in his last two outings. Both of those last two outings saw him go seven innings. This could easily end up being 3-0 Chicago. 8* Under Mariners/White Sox |
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06-24-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Over Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Cubs and Dodgers probably feel like they should be leading their respective divisions right now, but both have struggled of late. The Cubs had dropped six of eight before winning 7-1 in Cleveland on Tuesday. The Dodgers were just swept in San Diego. But I still like the future outlook for both teams. The Cubs are the only team in the NL Central with a positive YTD run differential. The Dodgers YTD run differential, while taking a hit in recent days, is still among the best in baseball. These teams have met before in 2021. The Cubs swept a three-game series where every game went Over the total. Rather than play the revenge angle here (odds are too steep), I’m looking for the Over trend to continue as the Dodgers should rediscover their offense now that they’re back in Chavez Ravine. They scored only seven runs the entire series vs. San Diego, but this is a team that averages 5.2 runs per game at home. I like the matchup against Cubs starter Zack Davies, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.767 WHIP on the road this year. Last time out, Davies allowed eight runs and that was at home. Davies will be opposed here by Walker Buehler. It would seem “fashionable” to expect Buehler not to give up many runs. After all, he’s been pretty “lights out” in June, especially the L3 starts. But when he started against the Cubs on 5/5, it ended up being a 6-5 game even with Buehler turning in a quality start. He figures to get plenty of run support this time, so as long as the Cubs score a few, this one should easily surpass the O/U line. 8* Over Cubs/Dodgers |
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06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
8* Under Royals/Yankees (1:05 ET): These teams are wrapping up a three-game series Thursday afternoon. The Yankees are heavily favored to take today’s rubber match after prevailing 6-5 last night. It was 6-5 Kansas City in the opener. One thing that is quite interesting when looking at the Royals’ scoring in this series is that seven of their 11 runs have come in the eighth inning or later. For a Yankees bullpen that’s usually pretty good, it’s uncharacteristic for them to be giving up so many runs. Look for that to stop in this early afternoon start as this will be the lowest scoring game of the three in this series. Take the Under. Kansas City will hand the ball to Brad Keller, who admittedly has been struggling of late. He’s 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA/1.892 WHIP his L3 starts. But before that, he had gone 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA over a five-start stretch. So there’s definitely some inconsistency here, but I think we’ll be getting the “good Keller” today. The Yankees are only averaging 3.8 runs per game at home this season with a .224 team batting average. In day games, they are averaging only 3.0 rpg while hitting .208 and the Under is 19-10. Jameson Taillon, like Keller, is coming off a rough last few starts. But here he’ll be facing a lineup that produces an average of just 3.7 rpg on the road. Again, the Royals have produced a total of four runs in the first seven innings of the two games here in the Bronx. Taillon has been much better this season when pitching at home where he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. 8* Under Royals/Yankees |
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06-23-21 | Astros v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Under Astros/Orioles (7:05 ET): This series has pretty much gone as anticipated with Houston winning the first two games 10-2 and 3-1. I believe the series finale will be more like yesterday’s game in that it should be relatively low scoring. Obviously, the home team hasn’t done much scoring thus far. With just three runs in two games, the Orioles are “closing in” on being the AL’s lowest scoring team. They have lost 12 of their last 13 games and have scored three runs or fewer eight times in that stretch. Take the Under here. Houston is baseball’s hottest team right now as they’ve won nine in a row. As I’d been predicting, they’ve overtaken Oakland in the AL West. The Astros +122 run differential is also baseball’s best. While a lot of that is due to being the highest scoring team in either league, don’t sleep on the fact that only three AL teams have allowed fewer runs. During this nine-game win streak, they allowed a total of 21 runs. In only one game did they allow more than three and that was when they allowed four on 6/16 vs. Texas. Jose Urquidy will start Wednesday for the Astros. He has a 1.00 WHIP in 12 starts, which is very good, and is coming off B2B quality starts. Urquidy has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. So look for him to easily shut down Baltimore’s anemic lineup. The Orioles only had two hits on Monday and didn’t have any until the eighth inning last night. The only thing giving the Orioles hope here is Tom Eshelman, who looked decent enough in his first start of 2021. Last Friday he gave up just one run on three hits in a game the Orioles actually won 7-1. 10* Under Astros/Orioles |
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06-22-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Brewers/D’backs (9:40 ET): Arizona picked up a VERY rare win last night as they stunned Milwaukee 5-1. Not only did that victory partially avenge a four-game sweep they suffered out in Milwaukee earlier this month, it ended a heinous 17-game losing streak. How bad have things gotten in Arizona? Yesterday was their first win since June 1st. The team has won just six games since May 1st. They currently sit 32 games below .500 after losing 34 of their last 38 games. Given all of the above, we can’t possibly expect the D’backs to win two in a row. But I do like the Under Tuesday. Zac Gallen returned to the Arizona rotation last Thursday after missing five weeks with a forearm strain. You may recall that I took the Over in that game. Predictably, Gallen struggled in his first start back as he was facing the team with the best record in all of baseball. But I expect significant improvement here. Gallen is second on the staff in ERA and Milwaukee has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.212) while also ranking 29th in slugging and OPS. This is a much better matchup for Gallen. Because of that scuffling offense, I’m not particularly sold on the Brewers even as they are tied for the lead in their division. They have a negative run differential on the year. But I am sold on Tuesday’s starter Freddie Peralta, who is putting together a very solid 2021. His WHIP for the year is 0.822 and in three career starts vs. Arizona, he has a 0.87 ERA. Peralta has allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive starts. There’s been only one time all season that he’s allowed more than three. 8* Under Brewers/D’backs |
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06-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles (1:05 ET): Toronto stormed back in the top of the ninth to “steal” one from Baltimore yesterday. The Jays were down 7-4 heading into the final frame and down to their final out when they exploded for a six-run rally. It’s been “that kind of year” for the Orioles, who have the worst record in the American League after dropping 9 of their last 10. It doesn’t figure to get any better on Sunday with Matt Harvey on the mound. Since May 7th, Harvey is 0-7 with a 12.00 ERA. So while Toronto needed to score late to get the win on Saturday, it’s very likely that they’ll be scoring in bunches early today. Harvey, who has failed to win any of his last eight starts, has given up five runs or more six of his last seven trips to the mound. It’s not like he’s lasting long either. The longest he’s gone during his winless streak is 4 ⅔ innings. He lasted a total of 6 ⅓ his L2 starts and allowed 13 runs. What’s really bad is that Harvey isn’t even giving up a ton of home runs. Everyone is just getting on base against him. He has a 2.391 WHIP his L7 starts. The good news for Baltimore is that they have scored seven runs in each of the first two games of this series. Their only win in the L10 games was the opener on Friday. The Orioles hit a season-high six home runs in yesterday’s game. Today, they face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a 6.11 ERA his L3 starts. While that’s mostly due to one poor start against Houston on 6/4, Ryu has allowed 5 HRs in those three starts. The Over has hit in four of his last five starts. 10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles |
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06-19-21 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 104 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
8* Over A’s/Yankees (1:05 ET): It was a relatively low-scoring game between these teams yesterday as the A’s emerged victorious 5-3. That’s pretty much “par for the course” when A’s and Yanks hook up as, going back to 2019, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings. But it ISN’T “par for the course” from what we’ve seen from both clubs lately. Oakland had gone Over in five straight before yday’s win. The Yankees had gone Over in 8 of their last 10 games. I think we’ll see a higher scoring game Saturday afternoon. Take the Over. Oakland continues to lead the AL West, although I have second place Houston #1 in my own personal power ratings right now. But there’s no denying that the A’s are hot, having won seven straight. That’s the longest active win streak in MLB right now. A big reason for the win streak is the bats. The A’s offense is averaging 6.3 rpg during the win streak, which is a very impressive number. Today they’ll face Domingo German, who just allowed 7 runs in his last start and that was against a NL lineup (no DH). In four career appearances vs. Oakland, German’s ERA is 6.05. The Yankees were coming off a three-game sweep of Toronto before losing yesterday. Eight of their last 11 games have seen 10 or more total runs scored. They’ll look to get back on track offensively here against Chris Bassitt, who admittedly has been pretty sharp in 2021. But Bassitt has never pitched at Yankees Stadium before and this is first time facing NY anywhere. His ERA is up over the L3 starts (4.32) as he’s allowed one HR in each outing. The A’s have won his L7 starts, but look for Bassitt not to be as sharp as usual Saturday. 8* Over A’s/Yankees |
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06-18-21 | Tigers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Tigers/Angels (9:38 ET): The home team took yesterday’s series opener by a score of 7-5. Scoring had actually been pretty tame until the 7th when Taylor Ward’s grand slam broke the game open. It was 7-1 at that point and while the Tigers were able to put four runs on the board in the final two innings, the rally ended up being futile. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Detroit as they’d previously swept the Royals in KC. Meanwhile, the Angels snapped a three-game losing skid as they’d previously been swept out in Oakland. They are now 4-0 L4 home games. But the streak that I’m more concerned with here is the Angels having now gone Over in seven straight. During this time, they scored an average of 6.3 runs per game while also giving up 6.0. They are also 11-1 Over their L12 games. They’ve played six home games in that stretch and averaged 7.7 rpg in them. Facing the struggling Jose Urena tonight, the Angels production at the plate should continue. Urena has a 7.29 ERA and 1.783 WHIP his L3 starts and gave up eight runs while lasting only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out. It would be even better (for the Angels) if 3B Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup today. The Angels may need all the offense they can muster as Alex Cobb has been knocked around for five runs in each of his L2 starts. The Tigers come in having pounded out 10 or more hits in four consecutive games. The Over is 7-2 their last nine, so we’ve got both teams having been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late. Neither bullpen is good either (something we saw last night). The Over is 46-19-2 in the Angels’ last 67 home games and 7-0 (anywhere) if they scored 5+ runs in their last game. Detroit is 6-0 Over its L6 vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Tigers/Angels |
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06-18-21 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Twins/Rangers (8:05 ET): Even with Jose Berrios starting today’s series opener, Minnesota ought not to be too confident. This club is grossly underachieving in 2021. Priced as a 43-win team, the Twins’ record is just 27-41 as they are one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball. Back to Berrios, the team is 6-0 in his last six starts. But only a couple of those games have been low-scoring. In the four games since Berrios last pitched, the Twins have surrendered 10+ runs twice. Berrios has a 5.75 ERA in four previous starts vs. Texas. I see this one going Over the total. Texas is glad to be back home as they’ve lost 19 of their last 20 road games. They are buried in last place in the AL West with a 25-43 record and considering how there’s already an 8.5-game gap between them and fourth place, expect this to be a cellar dweller for the rest of the season. Prior to yesterday’s off day, the Rangers dropped two in a row in Houston. The Over is 4-0-1 their L5 games, which includes a disastrous outing from tonight’s starter Mike Foltynewicz, who allowed eight runs in 2 ⅔ innings at Dodger Stadium last Friday. The Twins have allowed the most runs in the American League this season. So that’s some home for a Texas lineup that’s only topped four runs one time in its last nine games. I don’t see Berrios pitching as well as he did vs. Houston last Saturday where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP. He still gave up 2 HRs and five of his eight strikeouts came on called strikes. Minnesota, who also had Thursday off, beat Seattle 7-2 the last time they took the field. They are 17-3-1 Over their L21 after allowing two runs or less in the previous game. They are also 4-0 Over following an off day. Foltynewicz has been horrible for the Rangers with a 9.45 ERA and 1.799 WHIP his L3 starts. 8* Over Twins/Rangers |
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06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
8* Over D’backs/Giants (3:45 ET): San Francisco is looking to finish off a four-game sweep here. They’ve beaten Arizona by scores of 5-2, 9-8 and 13-7 thus far. There’s been an obvious increase in overall scoring each day and while that may not hold true again this afternoon, I still think this one goes Over the total. Arizona is absolutely atrocious. They’ve lost 22 straight road games, equaling a MLB record. So you know the hitters will be pressing today. It’s not just the road where this team struggles, however. They’ve lost 36 of their last 41 overall games, including 27 of the last 29. There's some optimism for today in that Zac Gallen, who is second on the team in ERA, returns to start Thursday’s game. But after missing more than a month, Gallen may not be as effective as he once was. I certainly see him giving up some runs to a SF lineup that is averaging 9 runs and 13 hits per game in this series. Kevin Gausman has pretty much been “lights out” for the Giants this year. The righty is 7-1 in 13 starts with a 1.43 ERA and 0.771 WHIP. His numbers get even better at home and over his L3 starts. But Arizona has seen him before this year, back on May 25th, so expect them to fare better than they did that first time around. In day games, the D’backs are averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. But over the L6 games, they are allowing an average of 8.5 rpg! That alone would send this one Over the total. 8* Over D’backs/Giants |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
8* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): I had the Under when these two teams played last night. Most probably pushed (closing number was 9.0), but I was fortunate enough to get it at 9.5. I anticipate today’s game to be even lower-scoring. Cleveland got five of its seven runs last night in one inning. As per usual, there was an error involved with Baltimore. They’ve committed six in the two games here at Progressive Field thus far, including FOUR yesterday. That can’t continue even if the team’s road losing streak (now at 17 games) is likely to. The Orioles do have some hope though in that the Indians are not a great offensive ballclub. Seven runs is a lot for them and highly unlikely to be repeated. They had just five hits in Monday’s opener and rank 28th in all of MLB in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, who blanked them for five innings in a 3-1 Baltimore win earlier this month. Akin has a 2.63 ERA in three starts this season, so look for him to give his team a chance here. But Baltimore scoring many runs off Indians’ starter Aaron Civale seems unlikely. First off, the Orioles have scored a grand total of 13 runs during an overall six-game losing streak. They have just 23 total hits during that same span. Civale just threw eight shutout frames vs. Seattle last Friday and gave up just one hit. He finished with 11 strikeouts. Four of his last five starts have stayed Under. (All three Akin starts have gone Under as well). The Under is 20-8-1 the L29 meetings between these teams, including 10-2 here in Cleveland. 8* Under Orioles/Indians |
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06-15-21 | Orioles v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): The two starting pitchers for tonight may seem like “question marks” (as far as the Under is concerned), but the Orioles and Indians combined for only seven runs Monday. Cleveland won 4-3, thanks in part to a pair of Baltimore errors in the field. For the Orioles, the loss was nothing new. They are now 0-16 their L16 road games as this season has already started to get away from them. They are 22-43 overall, destined for last place in the division and I rate them as the worst team in the American League. Cleveland is seven games above .500 and second in the Central, although they do have a negative run differential. So I’m not sold on them, especially with an offense that ranks 28th in both batting average and OBP. They had only five hits yesterday. A three-run first inning saw them benefit from a wild pitch and HBP. They only scored in the sixth after two Orioles’ errors. Matt Harvey, who starts today for Baltimore, has struggled of late. But given the Indians’ season-long struggles at the plate, I give him a good shot at resembling the pitcher who produced a 3.60 ERA his first seven starts. Baltimore also had just five hits in Monday’s game. They have scored only 11 runs total in the past five games. So they are an ideal opponent for Cleveland, who had gone Over in six of seven coming into this series, to start going Under. The Tribe is also having to put together a patchwork starting rotation. That means Cal Quantrill is getting the nod Tuesday. He was roughed up badly by Baltimore on June 6th, but I expect him to pitch much better tonight. The Under is 36-17-1 the L54 meetings between these teams. 10* Under Orioles/Indians |
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06-12-21 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Astros/Twins (7:15 ET): I continue to believe it’s just a “matter of time” before the Astros overtake the A’s in the AL West. Just look at those respective run differentials as Houston has outscored opponents by 78 runs this season (#3 in MLB) while Oakland is only +7. But for now, the ‘Stros only need to concern themselves with Minnesota, a team that has been surprisingly poor in 2021 and currently occupies last place in the AL Central. Houston won the opener Friday by a score of 6-4. I look for tonight’s game to be lower-scoring. Take the Under. Given manager Dusty Baker’s comments, you might be surprised that the Astros came out ahead Friday. "Everybody was walking around starry-eyed early in the game," Baker said. "You could see they were fatigued.” Baker was referring to the fact his team did not arrive in Minnesota until the early hours of Friday morning after suffering a 12-8 loss to Boston on Thursday. But they’ve now won five of seven and have a hot pitcher on the mound tonight. Luis Garcia is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 0.95 ERA and 0.737 WHIP. All three have also gone Under the total. Minnesota also has a starter going tonight that has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Jose Berrios’ numbers aren’t quite as good as Garcia’s, but he actually has a 5-0 TSR going back to May 15th. Houston’s bats have been pretty hot the last week, but could cool off for the reasons Baker alluded to in the above comments. Twins’ games are also due for an overall decrease in scoring and I think we’ve got the right pitching matchup for it tonight. Garcia, like Berrios, also has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and his ERA during that time is 1.86. He’s allowed just six runs in 29 IP. 10* Under Astros/Twins |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
8* Under Padres/Mets (4:10 ET): These teams have played each other five times this month. None of the games have seen more than eight total runs scored and there have been some excellent individual pitching efforts along the way. The incomparable Jacob deGrom turned in one of them last night. Before leaving due to some tendinitis (he’s believed to be fine), deGrom faced the minimum number of hitters through six innings, allowing just one hit in the process. The Mets won the game 3-2 as they continue to be a very good home team. They are 16-5 in 2021 at Citi Field where they are giving up just 1.9 rpg. The fact we are not seeing many runs scored when these teams hook up should not be a surprise at all. I already mentioned how “stingy” the Mets have been here at home. Overall, they are allowing the second fewest number of runs per game in baseball. San Diego is #1 at 3.4 rpg allowed. There should be two more strong outings from tonight’s starters Joe Musgrove (Padres) and Marcus Stroman (Mets). Both pitched in the previous series between the teams and did well. Musgrove allowed just three runs in five innings (lost to deGrom) while Stroman allowed only an unearned run in 6 ⅔ innings of work. Despite losing to the Mets his last time out, Musgrove is having a great year. He threw the franchise’s no-hitter back on April 9th. There have been only two times when he allowed more than three runs this season and both were against the Giants. The Under easily hit when faced deGrom last weekend as the Mets won 4-0. Stroman is coming off four consecutive quality outings and has the 10th lowest ERA in the National League. The Padres have scored a grand total of four runs in their last three games. Should be another pitcher’s duel on Saturday. 8* Under Padres/Mets |
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06-11-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over White Sox/Tigers (7:10 ET): We’ve got the best AL Central team against arguably the worst in this three game series. The White Sox have raced to the top of their division with a +89 run differential (which is tied with the Dodgers for the best in all of MLB). They are off a successful series with the Blue Jays where they took two of the three. The series before that saw them take three of four from these Tigers. Detroit responded by taking two of three from Seattle this week, but they still have a -54 YTD run differential. This is an immediate rematch between the two starting pitchers, who just faced one another last week in Chicago. It ended up being a 4-3 final, the Tigers’ lone win of the series, when Lucas Giolito of the White Sox went against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers on June 5th. The Tigers actually homered three times off Giolito, so you would have thought they’d score more than four runs. Their scoring definitely picked up in the Mariners series with 19 runs scored in the three games. Giolito has a 5.11 ERA on the road, so I expect the Tigers to have success against him yet again. The White Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. I can’t imagine Skubal pitching as well in this spot as he did vs. the Sox last Saturday when he struck out 11 in five innings. He’s also not known for pitching very deep into games. Only twice this season has he gone a full six innings. The Tigers’ bullpen is not good (1.51 WHIP). Back to Giolito, the number of home runs he’s allowed in 12 starts this season (13) is concerning. The White Sox are 8-2 Over as road favorites. 10* Over White Sox/Twins |
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06-11-21 | Mariners v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Mariners/Indians (7:10 ET): Even though I won with them on Wednesday, I don’t think Seattle is very good. They lost two of three in Detroit and now own the worst run differential in the American League West. Their overall record (31-33) isn’t that bad, but is being propped up by an AL-high 13 one-run victories. When they had a better record, I considered it fortunate and now we’re seeing the team slip, which I expect will continue. Run differential is typically a strong predictor of future outcomes. Cleveland has also overachieved based on their YTD run differential (-12). They are five games above .500 despite being outscored on the year and only 4.5 games behind the vastly superior White Sox. The Indians are basically who I thought they’d be in 2021, a team that will finish with a winning record but not make the postseason. The team is coming off four straight high scoring games (all Overs), a stretch where they scored 27 runs but allowed 31. They won two and lost two. Aaron Civale starts the season opener for the Tribe. He’s allowed 4 runs in B2B starts and has given up five home runs. His lone career start vs. Seattle, which was earlier this year, didn’t go so well as he surrendered five runs in 6 ⅔ IP. Justin Dunn comes off the DL to start for the Mariners today. He’d previously pitched well, but may struggle here after dealing with a shoulder issue. Considering he’s never gone a full six innings this year, don’t expect Dunn to here. Seattle gives up 5.4 rpg on the road and is 7-1 Over its L8 games in Cleveland. 8* Over Mariners/Indians |
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06-10-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Braves/Phillies (1:05 ET): This is the finale of a three-game series. Atlanta won the opener in relative “high-scoring” fashion, 9-5. Philadelphia countered yesterday with a 2-1 win on a Luke Williams walk-off HR. It was Williams’ 1st career HR and couldn’t have come at a better time for the Phillies as they’d been held scoreless for 8+ innings and had only four hits for the game. Now, instead of facing a potential sweep at the hands of the Braves, the home team can win the series on Thursday. They are 6-5 against Atlanta this year with four of the five games here in Philly having stayed Under. I like this game to stay Under as well. Phils starter Zack Wheeler is a big reason why. Wheeler is having an outstanding 2021 thus far with a 2.51 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 12 starts. You’d think he deserves a better team start record than 6-6. The issue has been that the Phillies have scored three runs or fewer in half of Wheeler’s starts this season. Still, you can count on him to hold up his end of the bargain. He has delivered six consecutive quality outings (1.65 ERA), meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less. He has an amazing 59-6 KW ratio during that time. Atlanta faced Wheeler twice earlier this year. When they did so here at Citizens Bank Park, they did not score against him. In fact, they got just one hit in seven innings. The game ended up 4-0 in favor of the Phillies. The opener of this series is the only time in five games at Philly this season where the Braves have scored more than two runs. The Phillies have scored four runs or less in four of the five games. Ian Anderson is coming off B2B rough outings for Atlanta. However, five of the six starts previous to that were quality ones. 10* Under Braves/Phillies |
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06-09-21 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Indians/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Cleveland may have won 10-1 yesterday, but this is a light-hitting American League team that loses the DH for this series. In other words, do not expect them to score 10 runs again tonight. Four of those 10 runs scored last night came in the top of the ninth when the game was out of hand. It marked the second time in three games the Tribe scored 10 runs after they had done so only once in the first 55 games of the year. This team is 28th in MLB in batting average and 29th in OBP. Meanwhile, St. Louis is in a terrible way right now as they’re on a six-game losing streak, their longest in four years. During the six-game slide, they have scored a total of just 19 runs. Seven of those came in one inning and that was the only game during the losing streak they scored more than four times. The Cardinals had no answers at the plate last night against Shane Bieber (few do) and tonight they will face a rookie Jean Carlos Mejia, who has worked as a starter and out of the bullpen in 2021. In four total appearances, which have lasted eight innings, Mejia has yet to allow a single run. Adam Wainwright will try to stop the bleeding for his team. Like I said earlier, Cleveland is not a strong offensive club, so expect Wainwright to have a solid outing here. He has a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home where the Under is 6-1 so far this season. I actually successfully faded him in his last start, but he still delivered a quality outing. He allowed three runs over seven innings. His previous three starts here at Busch Stadium all saw him go 8+ innings and allow two or fewer runs. This promises to be a low-scoring game Wednesday night and the number is already on the move. 10* Under Indians/Cardinals |
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06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox (8:10 ET): We’ve got another matchup of top American League teams on Monday, though I think this particular series opener is going Under. Playing it’s “home games” in both Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY this season, Toronto is averaging an AL-high 5.6 runs per game there this season. But the road has been a bit of a different story as their scoring average drops to 4.4 rpg. They’ll be facing a very strong starter in Carlos Rodon on Monday. Even after his worst start to date (allowed 3 HRs vs. Cleveland), Rodon still has a 1.98 ERA and 0.823 WHIP here in 2021. Rodon has been especially dominant at Guaranteed Rate Field where his WHIP is a miniscule 0.562. That’s pretty filthy. What was so shocking about the poor performance against Cleveland on 5/31 is that Rodon had previously no-hit the Tribe. However, that no-hitter came here at home while the poor outing was on the road. Still, the bottom line here is that Rodon has allowed 1 or 0 ER in seven of his nine starts this season. The Under is 6-3 with him on the mound. Road teams average only 3.0 rpg here on the South Side (hitting only .204). The White Sox just took three of four from Detroit over the weekend and the Under hit in all three wins. They are favored again here. Toronto had a bit of a rough home series with Houston where they lost two of three. They turn to Robbie Ray on Monday, hoping he can replicate his last outing where he held Miami to one run over six innings. Ray has a 69-14 KW rate this season and also recently held a strong Tampa Bay offense to one run in seven innings. Chicago has gone Under the last six games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox |
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06-08-21 | Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Dodgers/Pirates (7:05 ET): On paper, this looks to be a colossal mismatch with my #1 rated team in the power rankings (Dodgers) taking on the #30 team (Pirates). But as is evident by the fact they are only in third place in their own division, the Dodgers cannot necessarily always be trusted. What I do trust them to do tonight, however, is score some runs. They’ve put up an average of 6.3 over their L7 games (despite hitting only .206!) and the Over is 6-1 the last 7 times Tuesday starter Walker Buehler has been on the mound. Pittsburgh saw a rare three-game win streak end Sunday when they lost 3-1 to the Marlins. It figured to be a long year in the Steel City and the Pirates are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They’ve got the worst run differential in baseball (-75) and predictably find themselves in the basement in the NL Central. While they are scoring the fewest number of runs per game in MLB, don’t discount the fact they are facing the NL’s top offense in this series. Nine of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone Over, though they haven’t met since 2019. The Pirates had gone Over in five straight before Sunday’s loss. Ke’Bryan Hayes is back in the lineup and that played a role in me cashing the Over in their game Friday vs. the Marlins. Buehler is working on a stretch of four consecutive quality starts, but has allowed 3 HR in the last two. He could be due for a bad outing. So too could Pirates starter JT Brubaker, who did throw six shutout innings vs. Colorado (on 5/29), but had previously given up 12 runs in B2B starts. The Dodgers are 6-0 Over following an off day. 8* Over Dodgers/Pirates |
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06-08-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* Over Astros/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Two of the American League’s top teams square off for the second time in 10 days. The previous series was played in Houston where the Astros took three of four games. Boston avoided getting swept with a win in the finale and hasn’t lost since. They swept the rival Yankees over the weekend, then beat Miami on Monday. Now they must deal with a third different opponent in as many days. That’s tough. My expectation is that this game will go Over the total. We’ve got a battle of southpaws for tonight’s series opener. Framber Valdez is set to make his third start of 2021 for the Astros. In the little we’ve seen of him, Valdez has looked sharp. Especially when he faced the Red Sox on June 2nd. He held them to one run and five hits over seven innings that day plus he struck out 10 batters. But Boston’s bats should do better the second time facing Valdez. The key is the game is in Fenway Park where they average 5.2 runs per game while batting a collective .270. Martin Perez also pitched well in the previous series between the teams. He was the starter when the Red Sox won the final game. Over 7 ⅔ IP, he didn’t allow a single run. But just like with Valdez, I expect the opposing lineup to make the necessary adjustments the second time around. Houston is averaging 5.4 rpg on the road. In six starts at home, Perez has a 4.03 ERA and 1.448 WHIP. The previous start against the Astros was arguably his best of 2021. I don’t see him coming close to duplicating it. Houston has scored five or more runs in six of its last nine games. Boston has scored that many in every game during the current win streak. 8* Over Astros/Red Sox |
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06-04-21 | A's v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* Over A’s/Rockies (8:40 ET): Oakland leads the AL West (despite a drastically inferior run differential compared to Houston) with a 33-25 record. They head to Colorado off B2B wins where they scored a combined 18 runs. With this series being in a National League park, the A’s lose the DH, but if there’s one place where that shouldn’t matter it’s here at Coors Field where visiting teams are averaging basically 5.0 runs per game. That’s actually a lower number than past years, so don’t be surprised if it starts to go up. The Rockies are averaging 6.0 rpg at home this season and just hung 11 runs on the board yesterday in a win over a different AL West team (Texas). That was Colorado’s fourth straight win, but there’s no denying it figures to be a tough season in the NL West as three teams (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) have already separated themselves. Still, the Rockies can try and “clean up” in these non-division games. They are 5-0 vs. the AL West this season and 19-12 overall at home (just 4-22 on the road!) Oakland is 16-8 on the road this season, 7-0 following an off-day and 4-0 off a shutout win. Considering they beat Seattle 6-0 on Wednesday (my AL West Game of the Month!), they probably feel pretty good about their chances (given the above trends) tonight. But Friday starter Frankie Montas isn’t Sean Manaea, who gave them a dominant outing 48 hours ago. Montas has allowed four runs in B2B starts. He’ll be opposed here by Jon Gray, who has seen six of his last seven starts go Over. So will this one. 8* Over A’s/Rockies |
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06-04-21 | Marlins v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Over Marlins/Pirates (7:05 ET): Miami is stuck in a terrible rut right now as they’ve now dropped six in a row after a 5-3 loss here in Pittsburgh last night. Runs have been hard to come by as they’ve scored more than three just twice in the past eight games. For much of the season, they’ve been the lone NL East team with a positive run differential, but that number is now down to just +3 for the year. They are giving up 4.2 runs per game on the road, which is a full run more than what they are allowing at home. Pittsburgh not only got a win yesterday, but they also got Ke’Bryan Hayes back in the lineup. The third baseman was supposed to be the key cog in the lineup this season, but he’s been out ever since the second game. Hayes paid immediate dividends in his return Thursday, going 2 for 4 with a triple and he scored a run. The Pirates still aren’t going to be very good in 2021, but at least they’re more exciting with Hayes in the lineup and they should probably score more runs as well. The fact they’ve allowed the fourth most runs in the NL so far is still a problem though. The Marlins have Starling Marte back in their lineup and he’s gone 6 for 18 with four doubles since returning. I think that tonight is when this offense finally gets on track as they’ll face right-hander Mitch Keller, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.688 WHIP for the Pirates in 10 starts. Those numbers get even worse here at PNC Park. Twice in four home starts Keller has given up seven runs in 3 ⅓ innings. Starting here for Miami is Cody Poteet, who is off his worst start of the year as he gave up five runs in a loss at Boston last weekend. Pittsburgh is on a 22-9-3 Over run in the second game of a series. 8* Over Marlins/Pirates |
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06-04-21 | Indians v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Indians/Orioles (7:05 ET): Two teams that have put up 6+ runs in B2B games start a series Friday night in Camden Yards as last place Baltimore hosts Cleveland. The Tribe hasn’t played since Tuesday as Wednesday’s series finale with the White Sox got rained out and Thursday was an off-day. Baltimore also had yesterday off after a 2-0 start to June. Certainly, the O’s are hoping this month will go better than May when they went 5-23 including 14 straight losses. After the off-day, look for these two offenses (neither of which is very good) to “cool off.” Take the Under in this one. Jean Carlos Mejia will make his first career big league start today for Cleveland. He probably won’t be asked to go long. But considering Baltimore has hit just .219 its L7 games, Mejia should find success while he’s in there. Before beating Minnesota 7-4 and 6-3 to open June, the Orioles had scored two runs or fewer in five of their previous six games. The L2 games are their highest scoring since a 12-9 loss to Washington back on May 22nd. The Under is 13-4-1 in Cleveland’s last 18 visits to Baltimore. The Indians are one of the weaker offensive clubs in the American League, if not in all of MLB. They are bottom three in baseball in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, whose first start of 2021 saw him go up against the White Sox and allow just one run (a solo HR) in 4 ⅓ innings. I can’t see Cleveland scoring six runs for a third consecutive game, not when they only average 3.9 per game on the road. The Under is 9-3 in Baltimore’s past 12 series openers. 8* Under Indians/Orioles |
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06-03-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-01-21 | Tigers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under Tigers/Brewers (7:40 ET): It’s dueling lefties in Tuesday’s game between the Tigers and Brewers, two teams that don’t hit very well. Throw in the loss of the DH for the road team in this series and you’ve got all the makings of a low-scoring game. The Brew Crew won Monday’s opener, 3-2, and that game went 10 innings. With the pitcher having to bat, Detroit had issues at the plate (more so than usual) yesterday. Manager AJ Hinch actually pulled starter Tyler Alexander after just one inning as the Tigers had the bases loaded when it was time for him to bat. Later in the game, reliever Rony Garcia came up to the plate and struck out. Strong play on the Under here. The Tigers have scored the fewest number of runs this year among American League teams and remember that’s mostly with a DH in the lineup. Tonight they’ll have to contend with Eric Lauer, who will make his fourth start of the season for Milwaukee. The southpaw was sharp his last time out, holding San Diego to just one run and four hits over six innings. The Padres have scored the second most runs in the National League, so this is a far more favorable matchup for Lauer. The Brewers have the lowest team batting average (.210) in the NL and like the Tigers are bottom five in both on base percentage and slugging. So look for Matthew Boyd to get back on track for Detroit. Tuesday’s starter has struggled recently, but had allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his first seven starts of 2021. The Tigers have one of the highest Under percentages in all of baseball (63.5% of all games) and they are 6-0-1 Under their last seven. 10* Under Tigers/Brewers |
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05-31-21 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Rays/Yankees (1:05 ET): It’s been a phenomenal month for the Rays as they’ve gone 21-6 in May and won 15 of their last 16 games. However, they did drop two of three games to New York three weeks ago. That was after sweeping a three-game series here at Yankee Stadium last month. Going into that last visit to the Bronx, the Rays were on a three-game losing streak. This time, they’re on a four-game win streak and have seized first place in the AL East with a 34-20 overall record. No team in the AL East has allowed fewer runs this season than have the Yankees, who are giving up just 3.6 per game. Only four teams in all of baseball, three of them from the National League, are allowing a fewer number of rpg. However, the Yanks just shockingly dropped three straight games in Detroit while scoring a total of five runs. If they thought scoring runs on the Tigers was difficult, then I’m not sure what to say here as the Rays are also top 10 in MLB in run suppression. NY was 2 for 25 w/ RISP in the last series. Rich Hill starts the opener for the Rays. Over his previous six starts, he’s held opposing hitters to a .134 batting average while posting a 1.26 ERA. That includes a win over the Yankees, who he held scoreless for 6 ⅔ innings. Last time out, Hill struck out 13 in eight innings of work, although that ended up being a 2-1 loss to the Royals. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also been outstanding this year. I do think their hitters are due to cool off though. Since May 6th, the team is batting .321 w/ RISP. Jameson Taillon threw five shutout innings his last time out for the Yanks and is up for the challenge. 10* Under Rays/Yankees |
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05-30-21 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/White Sox (2:10 ET): The situation in Baltimore has gotten quite dire as the Orioles have now lost 12 in a row after being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader here in Chicago. Meanwhile, things are looking rather good for the White Sox, who lead the AL Central with a 31-20 record. Their +78 run differential is the best in the American League and second best in all of MLB (San Diego). As for the Orioles, their run differential (-65) is the AL’s worst and second worst in all of MLB (Pittsburgh). So it’s teams at very opposite ends of the spectrum here and odds are that the home team finishes the sweep Sunday. Yesterday’s doubleheader saw 15 total runs scored in 13 innings. Only five of those runs came from the Orioles, who have now been held to four or less in six straight games. I do not anticipate them doing well today against White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, who is coming off B2B strong outings. Giolito has also allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. The O’s have hit just .222 in games vs. right-handed starters in 2021. With the White Sox so heavily favored today, odds are that we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That can be key when playing the Under. Also key is the Chicago bats hopefully not going “off” against Baltimore starter Keegan Akin, who will be making his first start of the season. Akin is a lefty that the White Sox have never faced before. So that’s a bit of an edge. Akin has made some appearances out of the bullpen this season and has 10 strikeouts in 10 ⅓ IP. The Under is 4-0 in Chicago’s L4 games vs. a southpaw starter. 10* Under Orioles/White Sox |
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05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 102 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
8* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Seattle took yesterday’s series opener, 5-0, a much needed result for them after they’d dropped seven of their previous nine. As bad as things have been in the Pacifc Northwest recently, Texas is the team in last place in the AL West as they’ve now dropped six of nine. During that stretch, the Rangers have been shutout three times (including yday). However, if they can take solace in one thing it’s that the Mariners are dead last in MLB in both batting average and slugging percentage. As a team, the M’s came into yesterday’s game batting just .178 at home. That’s horrendous! Well, not if you’re Jordan Lyles, the Texas starter for Friday’s game. Lyles has generally been okay for the Rangers this season, allowing 3 ER or less in seven of his 10 starts. He had one horrible outing on April 26th, but he was making his second consecutive start against the same team (Angels). Seattle did not face Lyles in the previous series between the teams. Lyles has been a dog on the ML in every start thus far, so a 5-4 TSR is actually good. The Over is 3-0 in the previous three starts of Seattle’s Justus Sheffield. But I look for that to change here. Yes, he did struggle when he faced the Rangers on the road earlier this year. But Sheffield has been sharp each of the last two starts at home where he’s gone six innings both times and allowed just 2 ER total (on just 7 hits). Texas came into yday hitting just .200 over its last seven games, so this should be another low-scoring game between familiar foes. 8* Under Rangers/Mariners |
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05-28-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10* Over Cardinals/D’backs (9:40 ET): Embattled Arizona has now dropped 11 straight following last night’s 5-4 loss in extra innings. They were forced into making a pitching change just hours before the start of Thursday’s game and unfortunately Jon Duplantier (making his 1st big league appearance since 2019) could not get the job done as he allowed four runs over 4 ⅔ IP. The D’backs did rally to tie the game in the later innings, but it was all for naught. That result comes on the heels of another 5-4 loss the previous day where they BLEW a 4-0 lead and left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. Meanwhile, St. Louis has now won B2B games following their own tough stretch. But I don’t think they can be trusted today as they send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo has not been good in 2021 with an 8.18 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in his three starts. The Cardinals have lost them all. Going back to last season, the Cards have lost ALL EIGHT games that Oviedo has started. So Arizona has some hope here. They are averaging a solid 4.0 runs per game. Given how many they typically allow, a season average day at the plate would suffice for how I’m playing this game. Madison Bumgarner will get the baseball for the D’backs, trying to end this long losing streak. His best days are clearly behind him though. MadBum just allowed a season-high seven runs his last time out. While that was at Coors Field, the Over is 3-0 in his three home starts as well. Bumgarner had been pitching better before that start in Denver, but don’t forget he also began 2021 by allowing 5+ ER in each of his first three outings. I think both teams are due to “break out” at the plate tonight. 10* Over Cardinals/D’backs |
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05-28-21 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 11-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/Indians (7:10 ET): Toronto finds itself in somewhat of an unenviable spot today as it visits Cleveland. They’ve lost seven of nine and just split a doubleheader with the Yankees on Thursday. Cleveland comes in having taken three of four from a team they always seem to dominate (Detroit) and is now six games over .500. This will be the first meeting between these teams in almost two years and I expect it to be a low-scoring one as each of the last three Indians’ games have seen seven or fewer total runs scored. Meanwhile, there were only 10 total runs scored in yday’s Jays-Yankees twinbill. Cleveland does not hit particularly well as they came into yday’s game with a .215 team batting average. They were actually shutout 1-0 in a loss Wednesday before bouncing back to win 5-2 yday afternoon. Over the L8 games, the Tribe has scored 28 total runs and been shutout twice. So expect Toronto south Hyun-Jin Ryu to pitch well Friday as he makes his 10th start of the season. Ryu already has a solid 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP this season. He’s been especially good in his L3 starts with a 1.31 ERA & 0.919 WHIP. Cleveland is going with Eli Morgan, a top prospect that will be making his big league debut. The “unknown factor” certainly is in Morgan’s favor Friday. The Blue Jays scored only five runs in 14 innings of baseball on Thursday and one thing you know you’re going to get with the Indians is solid pitching. Visiting teams are batting a collective .215 at Progressive Field this season and not much better overall. Of course, there’s the issue I brought up earlier and that’s the Indians don’t hit well themselves. 10* Under Blue Jays/Indians |
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05-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/Braves (7:20 ET): Toronto has not been a fun opponent for Atlanta as the Jays are now 4-0 in the season series. Yesterday saw them come from behind to win 5-3. That’s a game the Braves probably feel they “should have” won considering they held a 3-2 lead going into the eighth, but a miscue in the field opened the door for the Toronto rally. Look for tonight’s game to feature fewer runs scored than last night as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Max Fried. Atlanta does not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In games where they face a LH starter, they are hitting just .219 with 4.1 runs per game scored. Ryu is considered to be Toronto’s ace, though he hasn’t been all that great of late. He got plenty of run support his last time out in a 10-4 win over Baltimore. But in four of Ryu’s first five starts this season, the Blue Jays scored three or fewer runs. This is a NL park, so that means the pitcher has to come up to bat. Thus, it’s an easier lineup that Ryu will be facing than when he faces a typical American League lineup with the DH. Though they did win Tuesday, playing without the DH ended a 5-0 Over run for Toronto. They did all of their scoring in two innings, getting two in the sixth, then three in the eighth. Max Fried gets the start today for Atlanta. Like Ryu, Fried had a successful return from the DL his last time out as he allowed just one run in five innings. As I said when I (successfully) played the Under in Atlanta’s game Sunday, the amount of overall scoring at Truist Park is due to go down. 8* Under Blue Jays/Braves |
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05-11-21 | Mariners v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Mariners/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Though Seattle saw every game in its previous series (at Texas) go Over the total and the Dodgers are 7-1 Over their last eight, look for this Interleague matchup to be low-scoring and stay Under the total. I say that based on the logistics of the matchup. Seattle, an American League team, is only hitting .205 its L7 games and now they lose the DH because the game is at Dodgers Stadium (NL rules here). The Dodgers’ previous two series were at Wrigley and Angels Stadium (where they got the benefit of the DH). Walker Buehler had an 11-2 team start record for the Dodgers last season. This year, his TSR is only 3-3 but he’s still pitched quite well. In fact, he’s got a lower WHIP (0.938) compared to 2020 and his ERA (3.13) isn’t all that bad either. Only one time in his six starts this season has Buehler allowed more than two runs. That was against the Reds, who are among the highest scoring teams in baseball. Seattle was no-hit recently and has been held to three runs or less in half of the L10 games. Yusei Kikuchi goes for the Mariners on Tuesday. Facing the Dodgers isn’t easy, but LA did score just one run on Sunday, a game they finished with just four hits. The Dodgers have scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Kikuchi has gone seven innings each of his last two starts and allowed just three runs (all in the last one) on six hits. While I am expecting a third straight quality start here from Kikuchi, the likelihood of the Dodgers winning this game is very strong (look at the money line) and that means we probably avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, a bonus when you’ve got the Under. 10* Under Mariners/Dodgers |
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05-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Phillies/Braves (7:05 ET): These teams have gone Over five straight times when playing each other, however yesterday’s 8-7 final was a highly misleading score as baseball’s “new” extra inning rules provided for a lot of fireworks in the added frames. Atlanta rallied for the win, but it took two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie it at 3-3. After no scoring in the 10th, each team put a run on the board in the 11th. Then came the 12th where the Phillies scored three times only for the Braves to score four and win the game in dramatic fashion. With two strong starting pitchers on the mound, I look for tonight’s game to see a lot less runs scored. For Philadelphia, it’s Aaron Nola, who has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts. The Phillies are 5-2 in Nola starts and he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts his last time out. The Over is 3-0 his L3 starts, but not because of him as his WHIP is 1.00 during that time. For the year, you’re looking at a 2.89 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. Atlanta turns to Huascar Ynoa, who happens to have the lowest ERA (2.43) in the rotation. This despite him only having a spot due to an injury to Mike Soroka. The only run allowed by Ynoa in his last two starts was unearned and he’s allowed only eight in 12 ⅓ IP. He’s allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts this season and has a 0.90 WHIP. Braves’ home games have been pretty high-scoring so far, averaging 11.1 runs per game (!), but that number will assuredly start to drop and I’m on the Under here. 10* Under Phillies/Braves |
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05-08-21 | Rays v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over Rays/Athletics (4:07 ET): These teams have met five times this season and none of the five games have seen more than seven total runs scored. Thus, the Under has gone 5-0. Four of the five games have seen five or fewer runs scored with three seeing three or less. Yesterday was a 2-1 Oakland victory as they are now ahead 3-2 in the season series with Tampa Bay. Despite so much evidence to the contrary, I’m going with the Over here as the two teams are due to put some runs on the board. It’s not just this season. The Under is 11-2 in the L13 games between the Rays and A’s. But Oakland had gone Over in five of six games before yesterday’s series opener. A big reason for that is they allowed eight or more runs in three of the games. Frankie Montas, who gets the starting nod Saturday, saw his last start go Over. Though that was a 5-4 A’s victory. There have been two times this year that Montas has allowed 6+ runs while lasting four innings or less. Here he’ll be facing a TB lineup that - despite only three hits yday - is averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road. The Rays’ week began with a four-game sweep of the Angels out in Los Angeles. They scored at least seven runs in three of those wins. So I think they’ll do better at the plate today. As for Oakland’s hitters, they’ll face Tyler Glasnow, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his past three starts. There’s no denying that it’s been a strong start to 2021 for Glasnow, but there was a start vs. Toronto where he allowed five runs. The Over is 4-1 in the Rays’ last five as a road favorite. 10* Over Rays/Athletics |