Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-22 | Wolves +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): My only losing bet in the last three days came with the Timberwolves. It was on Tuesday and they were laying a short number, on the road, against New Orleans. The T’wolves were coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 141-123 win in Houston, and had won four straight overall. It seemed like a prudent play. Unfortunately, by their own admission, the team came in overconfident and lost 128-125 with the game decided on a Brandon Ingram three-pointer with just 1.3 seconds remaining. "We acted like we were just going to walk in, get a win, and it's going to be sweet," Karl-Anthony Towns said. "I don't know if we thought, like, we're the Warriors all of a sudden. It’s not the Warriors that the T’wolves will be facing here, but it’s arguably the hottest team in the NBA as Memphis has won 10 straight and 20 of its last 24 games. This is a step up in class for Minnesota after the last three road games were all against bottom tier Western Conference teams. But the good news is that Minny has beaten Memphis this year and did so in emphatic fashion, 138-95, back on November 20th. While that was a home game, take note that the T’wolves also took the Grizzlies to overtime earlier in the year here in Memphis. While it’s a little risky to fade a team as hot as the Grizzlies are right now, I believe it’s an opportune time to “sell high” on them. They just beat the Warriors on Tuesday, and the Lakers before that, so a “lesser” team like the T’wolves may not command their full attention. Also, while Memphis is 9-1 ATS during the 10-game SU win streak, they’ve been underdogs in half the games. Only once, against Detroit, have they been favored by more than 5.5 at the betting window. Minnesota is #6 in the conference in point differential and net efficiency. With their starting five healthy, they are 9-3 SU this season. Take the points. 8* Minnesota |
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01-12-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 138-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-12-22 | Magic +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:10 ET): The Magic are obviously not a great team. They’re not even a good team. They have their worst 41-game record in franchise history (7-34 SU) and have lost a season-high nine in a row. HOWEVER, they have been playing better recently and don’t have players currently in health & safety protocols. The Magic probably should have picked up a win (or two) in the L5 games, a stretch which has seen them lose four times by four points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in all but one of those five games as well. One of the close losses came Sunday at home to Washington, who the Magic have an immediate rematch with tonight. The Wizards had to play a game in between, which they won last night, 122-118 over Oklahoma City. The Wizards have thrived in close games this season, going 8-2 SU in those decided by three points or less. That’s how they’ve maintained a better than .500 record despite having the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. I think they’re due to tumble. While Orlando is relatively healthy, Washington saw leading scorer Bradley Beal have to re-enter health and safety protocol last night. The Wizards lost two of three games the last time Beal was in protocol. With this being the second night of a back to back, it’s a tough spot, and I cannot see the team matching its 54% shooting from last night nor can I see Kuzma or Dinwiddie matching their respective individual performances vs. the Thunder. Orlando is due for a win while Washington, whose L3 wins have been by a TOTAL of seven points, is due for a loss. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
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01-11-22 | Wolves -5 v. Pelicans | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Timberwolves are on a four-game win streak here and coming off two of their highest scoring games of the entire season. After walloping OKC 135-105 last Friday, it was time to establish a new season-high in points on Sunday with a 141-123 beatdown at Houston. You may be thinking that this sounds like an apt time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, but think again. When this team has its starting five intact, they have been very impressive. They are 18-10 SU when just Towns and Russell are available. When the full starting five plays, their record is 9-2 (Beverley could return here). The T’wolves’ travels next take them to New Orleans as they continue the face the worst the Western Conference has to offer. This is the fourth straight game for them against the bottom three in the West as they got to face OKC twice before blowing out Houston on Sunday. Given the recent offensive numbers, it shouldn’t be a problem covering this short number tonight as the Pelicans haven’t had many answers for anyone of late. The Pelicans only win in the L5 games came against Golden State, who was extremely short-handed (no Curry, Green or Thompson) at the time. Minnesota now has the sixth best point differential in the West, so they seem to be legit. Having only made the playoffs once since 2004, this is a team that should be giving it “their all,” night in and night out. Surprisingly, the T’wolves are top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency and as I said prior to the last game (had the Over vs. Houston), their YTD FG% of 43.7 is due to improve dramatically with Towns and Russell back. I don’t see New Orleans being able to slow them down. The T’wolves have already taken two of the previous three meetings this season despite never shooting better than 40.6% from the field. They’ll shoot much better tonight. 10* Minnesota |
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01-08-22 | Knicks v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 75-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:40 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 25-point lead on Thursday and lost to the Knicks 108-105. That game was decided on a RJ Barrett three-pointer, which banked in at the buzzer. For Boston, it was a second straight loss that came down to the final shot. Earlier in the week, they lost 99-97 at home to San Antonio when Jaylen Brown’s driving layup rolled off the rim as time expired. I expect the Celtics to come out highly motivated on Saturday and win big. The Knicks probably can’t count on getting 41 points from Evan Fournier, which is what happened in Thursday’s game. While it was a nice come from behind win for NY, you can’t erase the fact that they were down 25 at one point. The Knicks have played a bit better of late, winning five of their last seven, however Thursday was the only game in that stretch where they topped 105 points. In addition to Fournier’s likely regression, I cannot see the team shooting 50% from three-point range again like they did last time out. Boston is now 11th in the Eastern Conference, one game back of the Knicks for what would be the final spot in the play-in round. So in addition to the revenge angle, there’s a real sense of urgency coming into tonight’s game. I’m expecting big games from both Brown and Jayson Tatum tonight. The Celtics SHOULD be a top eight team in the East according to most metrics. I can’t see them losing a third straight game as a favorite and they are 6-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Boston |
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01-07-22 | Wolves v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 135-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between these Northwest Division rivals. Minnesota took Wednesday’s game, at home, by a score of 98-90. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell returned to the lineup, however there was some obvious rust shown from that duo. I understand that the T’wolves have been much better in the select number of times their full starting five has been available (Weds was just the 11th time this year), but I’ve got to fade this team as a road favorite, which they’ve been in only one game prior to tonight all season. Oklahoma City is also getting back to full strength as four players made their returns to the lineup on Wednesday. One was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the team in scoring with 19 points. The Thunder also have a rookie PG, Josh Giddey, that is averaging 12.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. Giddey recently became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple double. He’s only shot 25% from three-point range in the L2 games though, a number I expect to improve tonight. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander is set to score more than he did in Wednesday’s game. Oklahoma City, despite its poor overall SU record, is one of the best teams at covering the spread. They are 24-13 ATS, which is second best in the league right now, trailing only surprising Cleveland. The Thunder are 9-2 ATS their L11 games overall and here’s a trend for you: the team is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season if they allowed 100 pts or fewer in their previous game. Again, they allowed only 98 on Wednesday. 10* Oklahoma City |
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01-06-22 | Warriors -3 v. Pelicans | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Even though Steph Curry is unlikely to play Thursday, I’m still going to back the Warriors in this game. Beating New Orleans is something they can still do, even without their superstar. The team shot a season-worst 5 of 28 from three-point range last night in Dallas, where they lost 99-82. There will be a natural progression to the mean in that category, even if Curry is unavailable. New Orleans is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games as they’ve previously faced the Bucks, Jazz and Suns. They lost to all three and surrendered an average of 124.7 PPG in doing so. It would be an obvious break, facing the Warriors w/o Curry, but it’s something I don’t think the Pelicans will be able to take advantage of. This is just a bad team. The Pelicans are 13-25 and second to last in the West. With Curry suffering the injury last night and Klay Thompson not yet back, where will the scoring come from for Golden State? How about Andrew Wiggins, who had a team-high 17 points last night. I’m also looking for a bounce back here from Draymond Green, who only had TWO points against Dallas. The Warriors beat the Pelicans by 41 earlier this year and can still win here, even without Curry. New Orleans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram has been struggling of late. 10* Golden State |
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01-05-22 | Nets -8 v. Pacers | Top | 129-121 | Push | 0 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets have shockingly lost all three games since Kevin Durant’s return to the lineup. Those losses, all of which saw the Nets favored, were to Philadelphia, the Clippers and Memphis. The first two saw them blow fourth quarter leads while Monday was just a case of being outplayed by the Grizzlies. Durant and James Harden combined to shoot just 13 of 38 from the field, including 4 for 15 from three-point range. Overall, it was just a bad shooting night for Brooklyn as they were 9 of 31 from behind the arc and 12 of 21 at the free throw line. Fortunately, tonight the Nets are facing an Indiana team that is both short-handed and struggling. Without leading scorer Malcolm Brogden, the Pacers have dropped five in a row and are now 10 games below .500. They probably deserve a better fate as they’ve lost 9 of 10 games that were decided by three points or less. But this is NOT the matchup for the Pacers to “get right” as Brooklyn will certainly be motivated to end its own losing skid and the last five head to head meetings have all gone to the Nets, three of those being decided by double digits. There’s a curious thing going on with Brooklyn as they are just 10-9 SU at home, but 13-3 SU on the road. They did beat the Pacers at home earlier this season, 105-98. The Nets have cleaned up against sub-.500 opposition, going 13-2 SU. Oh, by the way, Kyrie Irving is expected to make his season debut tonight. That comes at a time when Indiana has eight players still in health and safety protocols. Lay the points. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-01-22 | Clippers v. Nets -11.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): The Clippers have the unenviable task of playing on both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. After losing last night in Toronto, 116-108 as a seven-point dog, it’s a brutal spot here having to go to Brooklyn. The Nets will take no mercy on their unrested visitors; they are looking to bounce back from a surprising loss on Thursday, 110-102 to Philadelphia where they were five-point home favorites. It’s a big number, but you’ll want to lay the points in this matchup. Now, if you recall, I faded the Nets in that outright loss to the 76ers. I did so, despite Kevin Durant being back for Brooklyn. Durant actually played better than I expected, scoring 33 points in his first game in two weeks. James Harden also had 33 points. But the Nets had no answers defensively for Joel Embiid and also struggled from three-point range where they were just 7 of 27. That three-point shooting will improve tonight and a second game with Durant back in the lineup should see the Nets looking like a well-oiled machine. Now the Clippers are not just in the second night of a back to back, they are also extremely short-handed as Paul George is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. LA is just 2-6 SU its last eight games and this will be the second time in less than a week that they’ve got to face the Nets w/o rest. Last week, at home, they lost to them 124-108 and the Nets didn’t even have Durant for that game. The Clippers are now 0-4 SU and ATS the last four meetings with Brooklyn and this could be the ugliest result yet. 10* Brooklyn |
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12-31-21 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-139 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:35 ET): The Lakers stink. They have just one win in the past seven games and that came against lowly Houston. While LeBron James is doing his part, including 37 points and 13 rebounds on Wednesday, it hasn’t nearly been enough for an old team that is really short-handed. The Lakers are without several players due to health and safety, plus Anthony Davis is out with a sprained MCL. There have been 20 different starting lineups for the Lakers this season and the bench contributed just 18 points in the 104-99 loss at Memphis two nights ago. Things aren’t exactly going great for Portland either. The Blazers are 2-10 their last 12 games and off three consecutive double digit defeats. They are dealing with even more absences on the health and safety front and CJ McCollum has missed the L3+ weeks due to a collapsed lung. The Blazers have really struggled on the road thus far (2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS) and are just 2-11 ATS as underdogs this season. But I believe tonight is a situation where you’ll want to take the points. The Lakers are 9-17 ATS as favorites with 12 outright losses. They are also just 6-14 ATS at home. Much like how the Lakers are leaning on LeBron, the Blazers still have Damian Lillard, who had 32 points on Wednesday. So did Norman Powell. But it wasn’t enough against a top tier team like the Jazz. But it’s not the Jazz that Portland is facing here tonight; it’s an old Lakers team that I can see being “disinterested” playing on New Year’s Eve. Portland beat the Lakers earlier this season by 15 points. 8* Portland |
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12-30-21 | 76ers +5 v. Nets | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Both the 76ers and Nets are getting closer to full strength and it’s showing in the results. Brooklyn, thanks to James Harden, just went out to Los Angeles and beat both Lakers and Clippers in somewhat convincing fashion. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is looking to make it a perfect 3-0 road trip tonight after wins in Washington and Toronto following a Christmas break. The Sixers have won three of their last four overall, the only loss coming by two points. I know there’s a chance Kevin Durant may return tonight for the Nets, but it’s no guarantee that he will play well after a two-week absence. Brooklyn has not performed well this season when off a double-digit win. They are just 1-7 ATS in that situation, which presents itself again tonight as the Nets beat the Clippers 124-108 on Monday. Harden scored 39 points and the team shot 56.8% in that game. Even if Durant returns, there’s just no way they are going to match that kind of shooting tonight. Philly has done a good job defensively of late, holding two of its last three opponents below 100 points. Doing that again tonight might be asking a bit much, but it’s worth pointing out that the Nets “only” average 108.0 PPG at home. The 76ers, who are just 18-16 on the year and tied for 6th in the Eastern Conference, need this game more than the Nets. It’s also a double revenge game as they are 0-2 vs. Brooklyn this season. The first game saw them blow a halftime lead while the second saw them nearly rally back from a 20-point deficit, despite poor shooting (29.4% from three-point range). The 76ers were up by as many as 17 on Tuesday vs. Toronto as Joel Embiid turned in his sixth consecutive 30+ point game. This is an entirely different team when Embiid is in the lineup and they have actually been better on the road (than at home) this season. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers, statistically, have been better than the Hornets this season on a possession by possession basis. They’ve got a slightly higher net efficiency rating as well as a superior point differential. But Charlotte has the better overall record, 18-17 SU compared to 14-20 SU. How can that be? Well, Indiana has had the worst “luck” in the league in close games this season, going 1-8 SU when the final margin is three points or less. I think that tonight, it’s time for the Pacers to get a “little lucky.” The Pacers have a much better record at home (11-7 SU) than on the road (3-13). Fortunately for them, tonight’s game is at home. While the last two home wins came against lightweights Houston and Detroit, Indiana has won five of six overall here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse with the one loss coming by two points to Golden State. Indiana’s disparity in win percentage at home vs. the road is the largest in the league. They were a bit short-handed (no Malcolm Brogden) for Sunday’s loss at Chicago, but I think the home court edge is the key here, even if Brogden (listed as questionable for tonight) cannot return. While Indiana is clearly a better team at home, Charlotte is just 9-13 SU on the road. The Hornets are dead last in the league in points allowed (116.3 per game), giving up 5.5 more per game than every other team in the Eastern Conference. They had a brief stop back home on Monday - when they blew out Houston 123-99. But before that, they’d gone 1-5 SU on a six-game West Coast swing. I think the Pacers’ home court edge and the Hornets’ leaky defense prove to be the difference makers in this one. 10* Indiana |
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12-28-21 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Golden State got a huge win on Christmas, beating Phoenix 116-107 as 5.5-point dogs. But now they are set to be even more short-handed with Draymond Green joining four other teammates on the COVID-19 list. Tonight’s game, the front end of a home and home with the Nuggets, isn’t nearly as important to Golden State as the X-Mas Day game was. So I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points to a Denver team looking to solidify its own spot in the Western Conference pecking order. The Nuggets picked up a win on Sunday, beating the Clippers 103-100. But they were four-point favorites, so they failed to cover. It was the fourth straight time Denver failed to cover as chalk. They’d lost the previous three outright. But the last time they were a dog saw them turn in an outstanding effort, winning in Atlanta 133-115. Right now, reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic seems to be a man on a mission with back to back 20+ point & 20+ rebound games. It’s 55 points and 43 rebounds for him over the last two games. Obviously, Golden State should still be respected as they have the best record in the league. But this is basically going to be the “Steph Curry show” tonight due to all the absences. Green’s absence is the biggest of the five and will be felt. Curry had 33 points on Christmas, but even if he were to match that number here, I don’t see it being enough for the Warriors to cover the spread. The last time the Dubs were off a win over Phoenix, they lost the next game outright. 10* Denver |
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12-27-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:05 ET): The 116-107 loss that Phoenix suffered on X-Mas Day was only their third defeat in the last 28 games. It also snapped a 15-game win streak here at home. There is no denying the pecking order in the Western Conference has a clear top three teams and the Suns are among the three. But of the three teams, I actually believe Phoenix is the “worst.” Their point differential and efficiency rating lags behind those of the Warriors and Jazz. What I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team that’s been red hot, slip up a little bit in the coming weeks. Memphis is currently fourth in the West. While there’s a four-game gap between them and the top three, the Grizzlies are coming off a 127-102 win in Sacramento last night. That ended a three-game losing streak. They come into tonight as decided underdogs, but that’s okay considering their 11-5 ATS mark in that role this season. Six of the last seven times the Grizz have been getting points, they have covered the number. They are also 7-1 ATS L8 road games. This number is jacked up due to Memphis coming in without rest. I get their rotation is shortened because of COVID, but the same can be said for Phoenix. Losing to Golden State on X-Mas may result in a bit of a “hangover” here for the Suns, while the Grizzlies are definitely looking to avenge a 25-point loss they suffered at home last month. That previous meeting saw Phoenix lead wire to wire as Memphis shot poorly. Look for better shooting from a motivated dog tonight. Take the points. 8* Memphis |
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12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -6 | Top | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* New York (12:05 ET): It seems as if EVERY team in the league is currently being hit hard by COVID-19 related absences, but the Hawks and Knicks are both dealing with some SERIOUS attrition heading into XMas Day. Atlanta was already without SEVEN players due to health & safety protocols before both Cam Reddish and Delon Wright suffered sprained ankles on Thursday. Somehow Atlanta still managed to upset Philadelphia, 98-96, as Joel Embiid missed a potential game-tying shot at the buzzer. But of the starting five from last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals, John Collins is the lone starter left for the Hawks right now. The most prominent absence is Trae Young, who is not expected to play here. Not to be outdone, the Knicks have five players in quarantine and Derrick Rose is out due to an ankle injury. While the Hawks managed to somehow win their last game, the Knicks were not as fortunate, losing 124-117 to Washington despite 44 points from Kemba Walker. It was an inability to get stops that doomed New York on Thursday night as they let the Wizards shoot 56% from the field. The loss was the Knicks’ ninth in the last 12 games as this continues to be a very disappointing season with the team now four games below .500 and outside of a play-in tournament spot. Remember that last year saw NY finish fourth in the Eastern Conference, only to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs - by Atlanta. So neither team’s lineup on Saturday is going to resemble what we saw in last year’s playoffs. But that doesn’t mean that the Knicks won’t still be out for revenge. Yes, they already did beat the Hawks 99-90 (in Atlanta) last month. But a win on XMas would be an even bigger deal. Walker has shown himself to be capable of carrying the scoring load for New York. I don’t know who can do that now for the Hawks, who did beat the Sixers, but also lost to the Magic the previous day. In both games, the Hawks scored just 98 points. They are 0-3 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as an underdog. The Knicks should also defend better here than they did vs. the Wizards the other night. 8* New York |
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12-21-21 | Wolves v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is an immediate revenge situation for Dallas, who lost to Minnesota 111-105 on Sunday night. Ironically enough, I had the T’wolves minus the points in that game. But now it’s time to go the “other way,” even though the Mavs look to be short-handed going into the rematch. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game while Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. Several other players have made their way onto the COVID-19 list. But we’ve seen “strange things” (i.e. wins) all season from these teams dealing with absences. I look for the other players to step it up on Tuesday night. Minnesota has now won four in a row and passed Dallas in the Western Conference standings. With the West seemingly so depth-shy this season and the advent of a play-in round, this would seem to be an ideal year for the T’wolves to make a rare playoff appearance. But a couple things to keep in mind here - they are dealing with a couple players on the COVID list and even with Dallas being short-handed on Sunday, the T’wolves could only win by six at home. They trailed going into the fourth quarter. Poor shooting doomed the Mavericks in the 4Q and losing Porzingis to injury didn’t help matters. But at home, you’ve got to expect they’ll shoot better than 43.9% (including just 12 of 41 from 3-pt range) as they did on Sunday. The combo of Hardaway Jr, Finney-Smith and Brunson combined for 69 points last time out. Like I’ve said before, it also seems as if SOMEONE steps up in these situations. Minnesota has been a road favorite only one time previous to this all season. 10* Dallas |
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12-20-21 | Hornets v. Jazz -12 | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): The Jazz have now suffered back to back upset losses here at home, first to the Spurs (128-126) and then to the Wizards (109-103). Those games took place Friday and Saturday. I faded them against the Wizards as it was a large spread in the second night of a back to back. Still, it was a bit shocking to see the Jazz lose the game outright. This is a team that had previously won eight in a row before the B2B setbacks. They rank 1st overall in my power ratings, having outscored opponents by 10.5 points per game this season. Look for a strong statement to be made Monday against a road-weary opponent. Charlotte finds itself in the same situation Utah was in Saturday, that being the second game of a back to back. The only difference is that the Hornets are on the road. It’s not “just” the second night of a back to back either; it’s also the team’s fifth consecutive road game and third in four days. Of the Hornets’ first 32 games, 20 have come away from home where they are giving up 119.3 PPG. It was a blowout loss last night in Phoenix, 137-106, as the team has allowed an average of 124 points its last five games. For the season, Charlotte ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and points allowed. That’s a problem when facing a Utah team that is #1 in offensive efficiency and points scored. Talk about a mismatch. The Jazz rested PG Mike Conley against the Wizards, which partially explains the loss. He’ll be back on the floor tonight and the team should shoot a lot better than it did on Saturday. The Jazz are 20-6 SU this season with Conley in the lineup. While this is a larger number than I typically lay in a NBA game, Charlotte is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when playing without rest and going from Phoenix to Utah is the toughest spot they’re likely to be in all season. Lay the number. 8* Utah |
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12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Timberwolves have made the playoffs just one time since 2004 (when Kevin Garnett skipped town!) and that was four years ago when they made a first round exit. The Western Conference is shaping up to be pretty weak this season (at least much weaker than usual) and with the play-in round now “being a thing,” 2021-22 seems like a real opportunity for the T’wolves to get into the postseason. They enter Sunday with a 14-15 SU record, good enough for ninth place in the Conference. While still a game below .500, the T’wolves have won three straight. They’ve beaten the Nuggets, Blazers and Lakers, all of whom were playoff teams a year ago. Friday was a somewhat convincing 110-92 win over the Lakers here at home. The Lakers were dealing with plenty of COVID-related absences, but still had LeBron James. Taking advantage of Anthony Davis’ absence, Minnesota dominated on the glass with a 61-36 rebounding edge, including 15-1 at the offensive end. The Mavericks’ last game was a loss to the Lakers (in overtime). They will again be without Luka Doncic tonight as well as several other players because of COVID. The Mavs just really haven’t impressed me this year and are deserved underdogs in this game. Only three teams - OKC, Orlando and Detroit - are averaging fewer points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) will be the best player in this game and he’s wearing a T’wolves jersey. 8* Minnesota |
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12-19-21 | Spurs v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Off a huge win in Utah Friday night, San Antonio looks for just their second win streak of the season tonight in the capital city of California. From November 26th through December 4th, the Spurs won four consecutive games. But, as I just alluded to, that is their lone win streak of the season. At no other point have they won consecutive games. They’ve followed up recent wins over Denver and New Orleans with double digit losses to Denver and Charlotte. I’ll look for “usual form” to hold here as this is a rare time that the Spurs are favored on the road. Take the points. Sacramento is actually one game ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference standings. This despite the Kings losing four of their previous five games, including a 124-105 setback at the hands of red-hot Memphis on Friday night. While playing extremely short-handed right now (COVID), Sacramento did open up a 15-point lead over the Grizzlies in the first half. They just couldn’t hold it, even though all five starters finished in double figures. The Spurs only have five road wins all year and tonight marks just the third time they will be favored away from home. Most will look at the Kings as “sitting ducks” here due to the abundance of unavailable players and their head coach also being out. But I don’t agree with them getting more than a couple points in this situation. San Antonio only won by two on Friday and has been outscored this season. Recently, we’ve seen a lot of short-handed teams win in the NBA. 8* Sacramento |
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12-18-21 | Wizards +11.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Washington (9:05 ET): Utah is very clearly one of the top teams in the NBA right now. I’ve got them rated second in my own personal power rankings, only behind Golden State. But the team that finished first in the Western Conference a season ago saw its eight-game win streak come to an end last night with a 128-126 loss to San Antonio. Now the Jazz must immediately turn around and face the Wizards and they are being asked to lay a big number in the process. I’ll take the points in this one. Washington is clearly struggling right now as they’ve won just one of their last eight contests and that was by only three points, in overtime, against a terrible Detroit team. The Wiz did not cover the spread in that win, nor have they covered in any of their last seven losses. But this is still a .500 team (15-15 SU) that’s tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference. You’ve got to figure they’re going to be desperate for a win tonight and while they may not get it, keeping this one within single digits certainly seems like a reasonable goal. The situation clearly favors Washington as they were off last night. Now they were blown out, in Phoenix, two nights ago (lost 118-98 as nine-point dogs). But this season has seen the Wizards go 6-2 ATS when off a game where they failed to score 100 points. They are also 19-8 ATS in that very situation the L3 seasons. While the Wiz were blown out by 25 at home by the Jazz last week, they did beat them in BOTH meetings last season. 10* Washington |
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12-17-21 | Grizzlies v. Kings +4 | Top | 124-105 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings pulled off a much-needed win on Wednesday, beating the slumping Wizards by a score of 119-105. Sacramento shot better than they have in awhile, making 54.9% of their FG attempts. Despite being short-handed and without their coach (COVID protocols), the Kings used a big 4Q (outscored the Wiz 35-19) to pull away. There is a concern that this game may not get played due to the Kings’ COVID outbreak. But if it is played, I like them plus the points. I have been positively STUNNED over how Memphis has played without Ja Morant. They’ve won 9 of 10 games without their superstar. On Wednesday, the Grizzlies went to Portland and held the Blazers to 37.8% shooting in a 113-103 win. Their first game without Morant was, ironically enough, against Sacramento. The Grizz won 128-101 as a four-point favorite, but that was at home. The Kings were also coming off a triple overtime win over the Lakers, so it was a bad spot. Certainly, I acknowledge that the COVID outbreak doesn’t exactly make this the most desirable spot to take Sacramento. But they are at home where they’ve won three straight and - generally speaking - are a much better team. Memphis, despite a 7-5 SU record on the road, has been outscored in those games. I just can’t see them continuing to win like this without Morant. The Kings had a horrible shooting night when they last faced Memphis. Expect them to shoot a whole lot better tonight. 10* Sacramento |
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12-15-21 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
8* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Pacers need this game more than the Bucks. Indiana (despite a positive point differential for the year) currently sits in 13th place in the East with a 12-15 overall record. There are six teams ahead of them with worse YTD point differentials. A case can definitely be made that the Pacers "ought" to be higher in the standings right now. Milwaukee is doing well (18-11, 3rd in the East) but they will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight (COVID-19). Giannis isn't the only unavailable player. Six Bucks players have been ruled out for this game and that doesn't even include Kris Middleton (knee), who is listed as questionable. It's going to be a real "skeleton crew" out there tonight for the Bucks. This just seems like the perfect opportunity for Indiana to end its 0-6 ATS run in Milwaukee? 8* Indiana |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): This game is on TNT. Phoenix comes in off a loss, just its second in the last 22 games, as they fell 111-95 at the Clippers last night. It should be noted that it was also the Suns’ second loss in the last four games (after a franchise-record 18-game win streak) and second straight loss on the road. (They were beaten 118-96 at Golden State on 12/3). The Suns should obviously be respected, but I think they’re “due” to drop another one tonight in Portland. It should be noted that the loss to the Warriors was the last time Phoenix found itself in the second night of a back to back. The same situation is a whole lot worse tonight because the team is without both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton. Without rest, the Suns have NOT performed well this season, going 1-4 ATS and being outscored by 7.6 PPG. While the Suns are a top three team in my power ratings, I don’t think they’re quite as good as either the Warriors or Jazz. Point differential & net efficiency backs my assertion up, so look for the Suns to fall behind those two aforementioned Western Conference powers in the coming days/weeks. The Blazers are hoping to avoid what would be a fifth consecutive home loss here. Such a streak is rather odd considering they were 10-1 SU to start the year at the Moda Center. Damian Lillard is back and had 24 points with a season-high 11 rebounds in Sunday’s 116-111 loss to Minnesota. I expect Lillard to shoot better tonight than he did vs. the T’wolves (5 of 17). But the most convincing thing here about Portland is that they’ve already wiped the court with Phoenix once this season, winning 134-105 back on Oct 23rd. That was here at home. It won’t be that lopsided this time, but take the points. 10* Portland |
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12-12-21 | Wolves v. Blazers | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): Both these teams have been struggling mightily as of late. The Blazers have lost four in a row, all by double digits, while Minnesota has lost five in a row with the last three defeats coming by an average of 20 PPG. So something is going to have to give Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest. Injuries aside, my power ratings say Portland should be a solid favorite in this spot. With the chance that Damian Lillard could return to the lineup tonight, my money is on the home team. Portland has lost its last three home games. However, there’s no denying the fact this is a much better team at home than on the road. The Blazers fell to 1-11 SU away from home with a 104-94 loss at Golden State on Wednesday. But they are still 10-4 SU here at the Moda Center where their number of points scored rises to 111.7 PPG and their number of points allowed drops to 106.9 PPG. The home court advantage seems especially valuable for tonight as Minnesota has dropped eight straight here in Portland. Lillard could return and the Blazers are at home. That’s two reasons to like them. Another is the amount of time off they’ve had between games. For the first time this year, Portland will be taking the court with three days of rest. Minnesota last played on Friday when they trailed by as many as 30 at home vs. Cleveland. Defensively, the T’wolves are a mess right now having allowed 110 or more points in seven of their last eight games. Their last three losses were all at home. On the road, they allow even more PPG. 10* Portland |
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12-11-21 | Kings +7 v. Cavs | Top | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (8:00 ET): This is an interesting matchup as both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Kings lost Friday, 124-123 in Charlotte, after De’Aaron Fox missed two free throws with 2.4 seconds remaining. I was personally happy to see that as I was on Charlotte. But for the Kings, it was a difficult “pill to swallow,” not just because of Fox’s missed free throws, but they led most of the game (by as many as nine in the 3Q) and the Hornets seemingly “couldn’t miss” (shot 55.2%). Look for them to bounce back here though, at least ATS, as they’re catching a decent number here in Cleveland. The Cavs continued their surprising start with a dominant 123-106 win at Minnesota last night. They led by as many as 30 (on the road!). With the win and cover, Cleveland is now 19-6-2 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the league. Although they are 4-0 ATS when favored, this is a tricky spot for the Cavs, who are unrested and rarely this large of a favorite. I can’t possibly see them matching the red-hot shooting of last night where they were 54.1% from the field (shot over 60% in the 1H). You have to tip your cap to Cleveland, who is undoubtedly THE biggest surprise team in the NBA. They entered this season with the fifth lowest power rating in the league, but now project to be a playoff team. They’ve covered the spread in 9 of their previous 10 games, but what’s interesting about that is the lone ATS loss during that stretch (at Milwaukee) came on the second night of a back to back. The Cavs’ last 9 ATS wins have all come when playing with at least one day of rest. The Kings will come into this game hungrier and - at the very worst - keep it close. 10* Sacramento |
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12-10-21 | Kings v. Hornets +1.5 | Top | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be underrating the Hornets as of late. That’s understandable as the team is without three starters and two reserves due to COVID-19 protocol, plus they have also lost five of their last six games. But, including B2B close losses to the 76ers here at home, Charlotte has managed to go 4-0 ATS in its last four games. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that’s on a 3-0 SU/ATS winning run. My power ratings say the Hornets should still be favored here, so I’m rolling with them. Earlier I mentioned that Charlotte is just 1-5 SU in its last six games. But five of those games have been decided by four points or less and the Hornets have come out on the losing end in four of them. So they easily could have a better overall record coming into this game. What’s really hurt them is an 0-4 SU record in OT games this season. The first loss to Philadelphia was an OT game, then the Hornets came up just four points short in the rematch on Wednesday. In the wake of all the absences, other players have stepped up for the Hornets. Gordon Hayward had a season-high 31 points on Wednesday. Charlotte should have no problem scoring tonight against a Sacramento team that just gave up 130 points in its last game. Prior to their last two games, the Kings have had three and two days off. Here, it’s just one day between games. Sacramento also has only five wins by more than five points all season. With one of those five coming against Charlotte (140-110 back on 11/5), the Hornets are “thinking revenge” coming into this one. The Kings are also 0-7 ATS the L3 seasons off a game where they scored 130+ points. 8* Charlotte |
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12-09-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This is a situation where I anticipate that “the world” will be on the Lakers as they are laying a short number to a Memphis team that lost last night. But it certainly seems foolish to discount a Grizzlies team that won (and covered) its first five games without Ja Morant. One of those wins came by 73 points over Oklahoma City, which set a new NBA record for largest margin of victory in league history. Last night’s game against Dallas saw the Grizzlies seemingly run out of gas late as they were outscored 28-21 in the fourth quarter. The final score was 104-96, an outright loss as 2.5-point favorites. While this is the second night of a back to back, I think it’s worth noting that Memphis at least gets to stay home. That alleviates some of the issues typically associated with this situation. Also, note that Dillon Brooks was ejected late in the 4Q last night, which may have an inspiring effect on both he and his teammates for tonight. As a team, Memphis shot just 40% against the Mavs, including 9 of 31 from three-point range. I expect better shooting tonight as the Grizz are 6-1 SU and ATS this season after a game where they were held under 100 points. They are also 9-4 ATS as underdogs. The Lakers are just 13-12 SU this season, including 4-5 on the road. Now a lot of that has to do with LeBron James missing a lot of action. James is expected to be on the court tonight. However, he would be matching a season-high by playing in his third consecutive game. Not sure he will be able to match his 30-point effort (on 13 of 19 shooting) that he had against Boston on Tuesday. Same with Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, both of whom also had double doubles. I just think the Lakers are a mediocre basketball team right now and the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to that fact. Take the points. 10* Memphis |
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12-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Two teams missing star players meet on the court Monday as the Heat play host to the Grizzlies. Surprisingly, Memphis has gone 4-0 SU and ATS without Ja Morant, a stretch which includes a record-setting 152-79 beatdown of the Thunder last Thursday. But you can’t play the likes of OKC every night and even though that win (largest MOV in NBA history) was followed by a 97-90 win in Dallas on Saturday, I just don’t think that the Grizz can continue to win like this without Morant. Miami has been without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, resulting in them losing three of their last four games. Adebayo is out for six weeks, so forget about him for now. But there’s a chance Butler could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if he does or not, expect the Heat to win “going away.” There’s still enough firepower on hand here, including Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Look for the team to shoot a lot better tonight than it did vs. Milwaukee (40.5%) on Saturday. Though it’s the 73-point win that grabbed all the headlines, the Grizzlies have been winning mostly because of their defense, which has held the last four opponents well below 40% from the field. That likely cannot continue. Even with the record-setting win over OKC, the Grizz still have a negative point differential for the season and on the road they are being outscored by over eight points per game. Miami remains a top four team in the Eastern Conference and their defensive numbers are set to improve. 10* Miami |
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12-05-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:05 ET): The Raptors are just 4-10 (SU and ATS) over their last 14 games with three separate three-game losing streaks. But, in the midst of what is a pretty long homestand, they did just knock off the reigning NBA Champion Bucks Thursday night, 97-93 as 4.5-point dogs. That was no small feat as Milwaukee entered the game on an 8-game winning streak. Toronto’s home record of 3-8 SU still leaves a lot to be desired, but I’m willing to lay a small number on Sunday in what looks to be a favorable spot. The Raptors will host Washington tonight. The Wizards are coming off a 116-101 loss to Cleveland on Friday where at one point they were on the wrong end of a 27-2 run. They never led after the first quarter and at one point found themselves behind by as many as 36 points. Now the Wiz are set to play three road games in four nights. This hasn’t been a very good road team as they score just 101.8 PPG away from home. The last six road games have seen the Wizards go 1-5 ATS. Toronto has failed to score 100 points in four consecutive games while shooting around 40%. You’ve got to figure they are due to breakthrough offensively. The Wizards are not exactly known for their defense and have given up an average of 110.4 points their L5 games. The Raptors have done a good job defensively, at least recently, holding their last three opponents all below 42% shooting. They held Memphis to 38.7% and Milwaukee to 37.6%! The upcoming schedule is favorable and this is a team due to go on a run at home. 10* Toronto |
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12-03-21 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans look for revenge tonight after being run out of their own gym in their last game. The Mavericks beat them 139-107 on Wednesday while shooting a blistering 68.7% from the field. That kind of offensive performance doesn’t happen all that often (it was a franchise-record!), so I think it’s safe to say we can expect colder shooting from the Mavs here tonight. I know that New Orleans has gotten off to a bad start this season (6-18), but they’d won three of four going into Wednesday night’s game. This is a spot where I want to take the points. Aside from the top three teams (Phoenix, Golden State & Utah), all of whom are VERY good, the Western Conference is looking a little depth-shy this season. The Mavs come into tonight in fourth place, but they’ve actually allowed more points than they’ve scored this season. Jason Kidd’s team had to be ecstatic with their own offensive effort Weds night considering their previous two opponents shot 57% and 56% against them. In their last home game, Dallas lost 114-96 to Cleveland. The inconsistency of this team makes it hard for me to believe they are capable of turning in a second straight dominant performance, which is what is needed with this kind of spread. The Mavs have lost five of seven, so New Orleans was the hotter team entering Wednesday’s game. It boiled down to Dallas coming out red hot. The Mavs were 18 of 34 from three-point range, which certainly won’t be duplicated here as they are just 34.1% for the year from behind the arc. Not only are the Pelicans 5-2 ATS off their previous seven straight up losses, but the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a double digit win. Take the points here. 10* New Orleans |
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12-03-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): The 76ers come into Friday having won just 3 of their last 12 games. They lost 88-87 in Boston on Wednesday as Joel Embiid, still working his way back from a three-week absence due to COVID-19, struggled again. Embiid had 42 points and 14 rebounds in his first game back, but has gone a miserable 7 of 33 from the floor in the two games since. As a team, the 76ers are shooting just 40.8% in their L5 games. But I expect them to “step up” tonight in what amounts to a “must-win” game at Atlanta. The Hawks have played much better than the 76ers recently, winning 8 of their last 10 including a 114-111 at Indiana on Wednesday. But they remain short-handed as Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter all remain out of action. Trae Young really carried the team with a 33-point effort on Wednesday, but the Hawks probably can’t rely on that again here. This is a team that is heavily two-point dependent and the Sixers do an excellent job at defending inside the arc, especially with Embiid on the floor. Despite Embiid’s struggles in the L2 games, the All-Star clear makes Philly more formidable. Again, I expect the Sixers to break out of their recent shooting slump here (Atlanta is just 23rd in defensive efficiency). With a healthy Embiid, they smoked the Hawks earlier in the year, 122-94, as they shot 53.5% from the field. That gave them a measure of revenge after being eliminated from LY’s playoffs by the Hawks, but you know Philly will be hungry for more. The Sixers’ last two losses were both by one point and they are better than their 11-11 SU record. Take the points. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-30-21 | Lakers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 117-92 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): With the Western Conference being SO depth-shy this season, it feels like the perfect time for the Kings to end their mind-numbing 15-year playoff drought. But entering tonight, they are in 11th place, five games below .500 and two games back of where they’d need to be just to make the play-in round. The good news is that the season is still young. But if they wish to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007, they can’t afford to fall too far behind. They’ve already fired Luke Walton, which tells me there’s a real sense of desperation in Sacramento right now. The same sense of desperation doesn’t exist down in LA, but it probably should for a Lakers team that is just 11-11 SU and being outscored on a per game and per play basis. Now being without LeBron James for several games has played a role in that, but with James in the lineup the Lakers lost to the Kings 141-137 in triple overtime last week. They bounced back by beating the lowly Pistons on Sunday, but by just four points and again that was with LeBron in the lineup. Most are going to want to lay this short number with the Lakers as they are playing with revenge. But it’s been nearly three weeks since the Lakers posted B2B victories and both of those were by only three points. In fact, five of the Lakers seven wins this month have been by five points or less and none have been by more than eight! They are just 4-12 ATS as favorites this season and I think the Kings, motivated by an early-season coaching change, are capable of beating the Lakers for a second time in less than a week. Take the points. 10* Sacramento |
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11-26-21 | Blazers +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): Going to take a chance with the Blazers here as they are catching a decent number. Now it’s against Golden State, who is 16-2 SU and looking like the best team in the league. It’s also a road game for Portland, and they’ve struggled in those, going 1-8 both straight up and against the spread. But prior to losing by just four points in Sacramento, this team had won four in a row, albeit all at home. I think taking the points is the right move here as Portland is one of the few teams capable of matching the Warriors at the offensive end. (Blazers are #4 in offensive efficiency). Golden State’s two losses this year have been by a total of seven points and one of them was in overtime. So, yeah, I’d say it’s been a really impressive start. They have - by far and away - the league’s top point differential as they are beating opponents by an average of 13.5 PPG. They’ve won five straight, four of those coming by double digits. But this figures to be their toughest test since facing Brooklyn. It comes after a holiday and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dubs come out a bit “sluggish” in this one. They were down 19 in the 2Q Wednesday against Philadelphia, who was short-handed and playing its sixth straight road game. If they are to get an advantage, I don’t think the Blazers will let the Warriors “off the hook” the same way the Sixers did. I know it’s been a struggle on the road. Portland’s lone win away from home so far was against Houston. But the team played well in Sacramento. Damian Lillard had 32 points and 10 assists while Jusuf Nurkic contributed a season-high 28 points and 17 rebounds. You know the underdog is going to come in highly motivated for this one and Golden State isn’t going to win every game. Portland has averaged 117.6 points in its L5 games, so they can easily stay within the number here. 8* Portland |
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11-24-21 | Hawks -4 v. Spurs | Top | 124-106 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:30 ET): Here’s a shocking stat for you: the Hawks are 0-9 ATS on the road. No other team in the NBA is either perfect or winless against the spread, at home or on the road. It’s just the Hawks. They are also 1-8 SU away from home, so things have not been going well - at all - on their travels. However, a recently completed five-game home stand saw Atlanta go 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS. The lone game they didn’t cover was Monday vs. OKC when they were 13-point favorites and won by only 12. I think it’s got to be time for the Hawks to snap this shocking ATS losing skid on the road. They’ll be visiting a San Antonio team that simply isn’t very good this year. I’ve got the Spurs rated 25th in my personal power ratings, probably the lowest they’ve ever been in the Greg Popovich era. Only three other teams from the West are rated lower - New Orleans, OKC & Houston. The Spurs have lost five straight, three of those coming by double digits. It was a game effort against red-hot Phoenix on Monday, but they still came up a few points short in that one. That Suns-Spurs game wasn’t even close entering the 4Q as SA was behind by 15. They shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range. Now the Spurs do score a lot more at home. But Atlanta is averaging 117.4 PPG during its current win streak while San Antonio has averaged only 101.6 PPG during its losing streak. These are two clubs going in opposite directions right now and I expect the Hawks to pick up their first ATS road win of 2021-22. Lay the points. 10* Atlanta |
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11-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic +8 | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
9* Orlando (7:05 ET): I am fully aware just how poorly the Magic played their last time out. It was a humbling 123-92 defeat at the hands of the Bucks and it was honestly even worse than that final score suggests. Orlando not only faced a franchise record 41-point deficit at halftime, but at one point trailed by as many as 51! How then could I possibly turn around and endorse them here? Well, the Magic won’t be facing the reigning NBA Champs tonight. Instead, they are hosting an overrated Charlotte side. The Hornets are 5th in the East with an 11-8 SU record, but still have a negative point differential on the season. They’ve gotten hot recently, winning six of seven while also going 6-1 ATS. But they were underdogs in virtually every one of the games. In fact, the one time they were favored, it was a single point. This game will mark just the fourth time all season that Charlotte has been favored and the first by more than five points. It must be noted that when they were five-point favorites vs. Cleveland earlier this month, the Hornets lost outright. Orlando is only 1-6 SU/ATS at the Amway Center thus far, but it’s been 10 days since they last played a home game. They are coming off a brutal road trip that saw them face the Hawks, Knicks, Nets and then the Bucks twice. I think that after suffering such an embarrassing defeat on Monday, the Magic are going to come out pretty motivated here. Charlotte not only has a losing road record, but they are 29th in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 9* Orlando |
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11-17-21 | Cavs +11 v. Nets | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): This spread is too high, even before taking into account the fact that Brooklyn is in the second game of a back to back. The Nets were hammered here at home last night by Golden State in a 117-99 loss that prompted HC Steve Nash to remark that his team doesn’t belong in the same conversation as some of the top teams in this league. The Nets are 10-5 SU overall, but 0-4 against the Warriors, Heat, Bulls and Bucks. Kevin Durant was held to a season-low 19 points Tuesday night and was clearly outplayed by Steph Curry. While it’s a drop in class tonight hosting Cleveland, I’ll be taking the points in this one. The Cavs have definitely been a surprise at the outset of the 2021-22 season. They are 9-6 SU and also tied for the best ATS record in the league at 10-4-1. I did play AGAINST the Monday night, but that was when they were a short home dog against a revenge-minded Boston team. Even that game was close, though I walked away with a winning ticket. Losing standout rookie Evan Mobley to an elbow injury definitely hurts, but this is a team that has yet to be blown out all year. 10* Cleveland |
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11-16-21 | Spurs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-16-21 | 76ers +9 v. Jazz | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): These two teams each finished first in their respective conferences last year in the regular season. But neither got to the NBA Finals. Both were actually ousted in the second round of the playoffs, the Sixers by the Hawks and the Jazz by the Clippers. Fast starts to the 2021-22 campaign had them each at/near the top again, but both have since faded. Philly comes into tonight on a four-game losing streak while Utah has lost four of its last five, including two straight. I think you have to take the points here. Now I’m well aware that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid as well as several other key contributors. They haven’t won since Embiid tested positive for COVID-19. But all four losses have been by nine points or fewer. On Saturday against Indiana, the 76ers got 24 points from Tyrese Maxey and 16-11 (points & rebounds) from Andre Drummond. Scoring wasn’t a problem as the team finished with 113 points. The problem was letting the Pacers shoot a blistering 57.3% from the field. I do not see that happening again tonight. Utah has struggled to score of late, not topping 105 points in three of its last four contests. They were down 22 in the fourth quarter against Miami on Saturday, the second straight game they fell behind by double digits. With this being a national TV game (TNT), the Sixers aren’t going to want to get embarrassed, so look for them to be plenty motivated and keep this game closer than the oddsmakers think. They’ve covered seven of the last eight meetings with Utah. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-15-21 | Celtics -2 v. Cavs | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 19-point lead here in Cleveland on Saturday night and lost 91-89. It was an absolutely shocking turn of events after the Cavs were held to just nine points in the first quarter and trailed for almost the entirety of the game. Said Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff, “There is no basketball reason why we should have won, but there was a collective spirit," "Momentum is a hell of a thing. When you start to ride that wave in either direction, it changes the game.” Now personally, I’m not a big believer in “momentum.” I expect Boston to get its revenge Monday. Cleveland is 9-5 SU and currently fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. Not sure anyone was expecting to see that. The Cavs came into the season with the fifth lowest projected win total in the league. The fact they are a league-best 10-3-1 ATS affirms how they have caught many, including the oddsmakers, by surprise. But at some point you have to expect this run will subside. The Cavs have been rather fortunate to win four games by three points or less this month. I still have them 22nd in the power rankings and remain unsold if they’ll even finish with a .500 record. Cleveland is also missing some players, such as Lauri Markkanen, Lamar Stevens, Collin Sexton and Kevin Love. All of those players were out Saturday, making the 19-point rally seem all the more improbable. You’ve got to believe that Boston will shoot better than it did on Friday. I’ve still got them rated as the better team here - comfortably so. That means I’ve got no issue laying a short number in a revenge spot. They were up 19 on this team 48 hours ago. I’ve got all the confidence in the world that they’ll win here. 10* Boston |
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11-14-21 | Spurs +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (3:30 ET): The Spurs are a better team than the Lakers right now, even though they have an inferior WL record. Though 4-8 SU, San Antonio has actually scored more points than what they’ve allowed this season. The Lakers, despite a winning SU record (7-6) can’t say that. They have a -2.3 PPG differential. Something else the Lakers can’t say (right now) is that they have a healthy LeBron James. Friday night saw them lose to the T’wolves by 24 points here at home. San Antonio is also off a loss as they fell to Dallas by a score of 123-109. The loss dropped them to 0-4 SU off a win this season. They’ve also failed to cover the spread each of the last three times they’ve been off a win. But when off a loss, as they are here, the Spurs tend to play better. They’re a 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses and this includes a 136-117 win over OKC earlier this week. The Spurs had 16 fewer field goal attempts than the Mavs on Friday. That kind of discrepancy should not exist in this afternoon’s game. The Lakers dropped to 3-4 SU without James with Friday’s loss to Minnesota. They were outscored 40-12 in a decisive third quarter. This is a situation where it looks like the public is lining up to bet the favorite, but the lack of line movement is notable. San Antonio has been the better of these two teams on a per possession basis this year. The Spurs also have revenge for a four-point loss at home last month. The road team has won outright the L4 times these teams have met. Take the points. 8* San Antonio |
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11-12-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): Well, I guess I’m chasing the Hawks, who are 0-5 ATS in their last five games (also 0-5 SU) and a mind-numbing 0-8 ATS on the road this season. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Conference Finals last season. The road-heavy schedule to start the season seems to have taken a toll, but I remain a believer that the Hawks can bounce back tonight in Denver. Four of the Nuggets’ last six games have been decided by three points or less and they’ve been fortunate to win three of those. Now I took the Hawks plus the points in each of their two previous games. Those plays obviously failed to come through as they lost to Utah and Golden State by a combined 26 points. With the benefit of hindsight, I was probably being a bit stubborn in thinking Atlanta would keep up with the two best teams in the NBA right now. This road trip started with a four-point loss in Phoenix, so the Hawks have had to play four of the West’s top teams. But of the four, Denver might be the weakest. The Nuggets are averaging only 101.8 PPG thus far. They did just win, 101-98 against Indiana, without Nikola Jokic (who was suspended). Jokic will be back tonight, but Michael Porter Jr is expected to miss a third straight game due to a sore back. I don’t think Denver can count on another career-night from Zeke Nnaji, who scored 19 against the Pacers. Atlanta could be getting back both Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter tonight. That would be a boost. But the bottom line is that I just can’t see the Hawks failing to cover ANOTHER road game. Take the points here as Denver has only covered one of the last six times it has been favored. 10* Atlanta |
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11-10-21 | Wolves +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (10:05 ET): The T’wolves were extremely unfortunate not to cover the spread Monday in Memphis. First off, they led by 16 points in the fourth quarter. After blowing the entirety of that lead, they were still “in the money” (as 4.5-point underdogs) when Karl-Anthony Towns decided to hit a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation to tie the game up. You can guess what came next. Minnesota lost by seven in overtime. Tonight’s assignment in Golden State may look like a tough one for the T’wolves, but I’m banking on them at least being able to cover the spread here. Now I know that the Warriors are 9-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation. (Their only loss came in OT against Memphis). But the Dubs have been feasting on some bad teams recently. While Minnesota’s SU record is only 3-6, they’ve only been outscored by 4.1 PPG. In the last two games, Minnesota has held leads of 20 and 16 points, yet is somehow 0-2 ATS. Steph Curry had 50 points in Golden State’s last game, a performance he isn’t about to duplicate here. Interestingly enough, the Warriors were outscored in three of the four quarters by Atlanta. They had one big quarter (third) where they outscored the Hawks 41-20. That doesn’t seem sustainable to me? 10* Minnesota |
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11-10-21 | Hornets +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): The Hornets are 0-5 SU/ATS in November and just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine games overall. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip that has seen them lose three times by double digits. But after only losing by three (in overtime) at the Lakers the other night, Charlotte should finally break through here. Memphis is also off an overtime game, although they were victorious, 125-118 over Minnesota. The Grizzlies were very lucky to win that game, let alone cover the point spread. They trailed by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. Had the Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns not made a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation, then the Grizz would NOT have covered the 4.5-point spread. But thanks to the extra five minutes they did and anyone who laid the points in that game should have felt very lucky to cash a winning ticket. That win over the T’wolves was just the third game Memphis was favored to win all season. It was the first time they covered as favorites since the season opener vs. Cleveland. Prior to defeating the T’wolves, the Grizzlies had lost 115-87 at Washington. In addition to the OT win on Monday, they have two other wins this season by three points or less. I think the Grizz are a good team to fade as chalk right now, especially with Charlotte being so desperate for a win. 8* Charlotte |
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11-09-21 | Blazers +3 v. Clippers | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): This is an early season rubber match between the Trail Blazers & Clippers. These teams have taken turns beating each other, each winning on their own floor in blowout fashion. First it was the Clippers prevailing 116-86 here at Staples Center. Then it was the Blazers turn to return the favor with a 111-92 win several days later. I had the Blazers in that rematch and will go with them again here, plus the points. I know they are 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, but coming off B2B wins at home, I think they’re ready to end that particular losing streak. Portland has been favored in every game but one so far. That one exception was the previous game here vs. the Clippers. So unless they’ve been facing the Clips on the road, the Blazers have been favored every time out. That makes their 5-5 SU overall record seem like a disappointment. But, as alluded to above, things have begun to take a turn for the better. Damian Lillard made 6 of 15 3PA in Saturday’s 105-90 win over the Lakers. That game was a blowout most of the way with the Blazers leading by 30+ in the third quarter. That followed a win, 110-106 over Indiana, where *I* cashed them. The Clippers have won four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But they’ve been beating up on bad teams. Two of the wins were against Minnesota, another vs. Oklahoma City and then Sunday required a 22-0 run in the 4Q to beat Charlotte. I’m still not really sold on the Clips without Kawhi Leonard. They’re a middle of the pack team in the West until he returns. Take the points here. 8* Portland |
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11-09-21 | Hawks +8 v. Jazz | Top | 98-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): For a half, it sure looked like the Hawks were the right side last night against the Warriors. I took them, plus the points, and they led Golden State 65-61 at the break. Early in the 2Q, they were up by as many as 11. But then the third quarter and Steph Curry happened. Atlanta was outscored 41-20 in the 3Q and Curry finished the game with 50 points and 10 assists. The Hawks lost 127-113. They are now a shocking 0-7 ATS on the road this season. Things will not get any easier for the Hawks tonight as they must visit Utah to play the Jazz, who are the only team that I have rated higher than Golden State in my power rankings. This is a game Atlanta desperately needs as not only are they 0-7 ATS on the road this season; they’ve also lost six of seven overall straight up, including four straight. I’m going to take the points again, feeling this team is simply better than what it has shown recently. Remember they were in the Eastern Conference Finals just a few months ago. This is the second meeting in a week between the Hawks and Jazz. Utah took the first one, in Atlanta, 116-98. The Hawks were actually slight favorites for that game. As rough as things have been recently, there looks to be value on them plus the points in the rematch. Utah has lost its last two games, the last one coming in Orlando where they were 11-point favorites. 10* Atlanta |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): The Hawks are 0-6 ATS on the road so far. That’s the most losses without a single cover in the league. Portland (0-4 ATS) is the only other team yet to cover a spread on the road. While it’s a short number they’re getting tonight, and they’re up against a hot Golden State team, look for Atlanta to end its six-game ATS road losing streak. Key here is that the Warriors had to play last night. This is the first time all season that the Dubs find themselves in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. Golden State did prevail on Sunday, winning 120-107 over lowly Houston. It was not only the fourth straight SU win for the Dubs, but also their fourth straight cover. All four wins have come by double digits. The team is now 8-1 SU on the year and the one loss came in overtime (to Memphis). Last night also marked the first Warriors’ game to go Over since the season opening win against the Lakers. But as good as the Dubs have been of late, I simply view this as a “bad spot.” Any team can have an “off-night.” Sure enough, the Warriors are 8-14 ATS the previous two seasons when playing without rest. It should be noted that the Hawks came VERY close to covering the other night in Phoenix, only to lose by four as 3.5 point underdogs. For the record, I cashed the Over in that game. The Hawks actually led by double digits going into the fourth quarter. Losers of three in a row, this team will be desperate for a win Monday night. Remember they were in the Conference Finals last summer. Look for the dog to take advantage of a tired favorite. 10* Atlanta |
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): Can the Blazers really lose four straight times as favorites? I hope not, because I’m laying the points with them Friday night at home vs. the Pacers. Now I haven’t forgotten how Portland failed to come through for me in their last game. That was a 107-104 loss at Cleveland. The defensive effort was simply not up to par as the Blazers allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.7% from the field, including 15 of 30 on three-point attempts. But one reason I believe today can (and will) be different is that the Blazers are back home where they’re 3-1 SU so far this season. (They are 0-4 on the road). Not long ago, Indiana was a team that I championed to turn things around. It was Monday when I took them and they covered the spread for me in a 131-118 win over San Antonio. They followed that by beating the Knicks on Wednesday, 111-98. Prior to the B2B wins, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU overall and looked like one of the real “disappointments” in the Eastern Conference. But now they have to go and do something they have yet to do all season and that’s win on the road. So far the team is 0-4 SU away from home and giving up an average of 120.2 points in those four contests. Portland has averaged 120.5 PPG at home so far. In my analysis for their game vs. Cleveland, I talked about how it’s only a matter of time until Damian Lillard gets on track. Lillard did go for a team-high 26 points against the Cavs, but that was on 10 of 27 shooting (3 of 12 from 3PT range). I trust that he and his teammates will shoot better tonight now that they’re back home. The Blazers have been favored in all but one game so far, so their 3-5 SU record is a major disappointment. They’ll win and cover tonight. 10* Portland |
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11-05-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (10:05 ET): I think it’s safe to say that Golden State is off to a pretty great start to the season. They will never again ascend to the heights of those championship teams from several years back, but they’ve definitely been the second best team in the Western Conference (behind Utah) thus far. The Warriors are 6-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation (lone loss was by three, to Memphis, in overtime). Since suffering that one loss, they’ve put together a couple commanding victories over Oklahoma City and Charlotte, beating those two teams by 21 and 22 points respectively. New Orleans is NOT off to a good start. They are 1-8, which has them dead last in the Western Conference. Zion Williamson has not played and will probably be out for two more weeks. But at least Brandon Ingram appears ready to return tonight. Ingram has missed the Pelicans’ last three games, all of which have been losses, the last two coming by a combined 25 points at Phoenix and Sacramento. Before those three games, the Pelicans had been competitive, losing to the Hawks and Kings by a combined seven points. Playing on national television, the Pelicans certainly won’t want to be embarrassed tonight. So look for a solid effort in this Friday night ESPN matchup. They are due to start shooting the ball better while at the same time the defense can only improve (last four opponents have all shot 50% or better). Golden State held its previous two opponents to 36% from the field, which is hard to do. The Dubs figure to be a popular play tonight, but I think it’s a great spot to be a “contrarian.” Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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11-03-21 | Blazers -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:05 ET): Here, you’ve got two teams whose records somewhat defy the odds. Portland has been favored in all but one game so far. They are just 3-4 straight up. Cleveland has been an underdog in ALL of its games, yet is 4-4 SU. I just can’t see the Blazers losing for a third straight time as chalk nor do I see the Cavs continuing this surprising early season run. So lay the short number with the road team. Portland is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road. Tonight will be their third road game in four nights. As I alluded to earlier, the Blazers went off as the betting favorite in each of the previous two contests. Their last game was a 113-103 loss to a Philadelphia team that was playing without Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Danny Green. It was a bad loss, plain and simple. Right now, it would be very easy to “point the finger” at Damian Lillard, who is averaging career-lows in points, FG% and 3PT FG%. Lillard went 7 for 20 overall (2 for 9 from behind the arc) against the Sixers. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he - and the team - gets back on track. Look for it to start tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs are coming off a five-game road trip (that was mostly out West) and saw them pull three outright upsets. The latest upset win came Monday in Charlotte when they won 113-110. They blew a big lead in the fourth quarter of that game. Important to note is that in three of the Cavs’ four wins, the opponent has failed to score 100 points. Yet it’s not as if the Cavs have some great defensive efficiency rating. I just believe Portland, specifically Lillard, is due to get back on track here and I’m not a buyer on the Cavs’ start. 10* Portland |
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11-02-21 | Kings +9 v. Jazz | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (9:05 ET): As one would expect, the Kings have not had much success against the Jazz these last few seasons. They are just 1-8 - straight up and against the spread - the last nine meetings. The one SU win came by a single point as 4.5 point dogs very early in the 2019-20 season. All eight losses have come by at least nine points and quite frankly the average margin is pretty huge. But I’m here to tell you that you shouldn't be surprised when the visitors (Sacramento) make this close a game on Tuesday night. Utah, as they were expected to be, is one of top teams in the Western Conference so far. They are 5-1 SU with a conference leading +12.9 per game point differential. But I successfully faded them in their lone loss, which came on Saturday in Chicago, 107-99 as 3.5-point favorites to the Bulls. They immediately followed that with perhaps their signature win of the season, 107-95 over defending NBA Champion Milwaukee as five-point home favorites. The Bucks shot very poorly in that game. The Kings have already lost to the Jazz once this season. It was a 110-101 game in Sacramento back on October 22nd. But the Kings come into this game with a 3-3 SU record. Now all three wins have been close (decided by four points or less), however all three were also on the road! I fully anticipate that the Kings will shoot the ball better from three-point range here than they did vs. Dallas Sunday (just 19.4%). They finished with a season-low in points and their top two scorers (Barnes, Fox) finished a combined 10 of 32. Take the points. 8* Sacramento |
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11-01-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): When Nikola Jokic went down with what looked to be a serious knee injury last Tuesday, there was some serious concern that the reigning league MVP would be out for an extended period of time. But Jokic ended up not even missing a game and has since led his Nuggets to B2B wins. The first was a blowout over Dallas at home and then the Nuggets eked out a 93-91 win at Minnesota on Saturday. But this being their third game in four nights, and on the road, I think it’s a bad spot for them. Memphis has fallen to 3-3 SU on the season after dropping three of their last four games. They played their worst game of the season on Saturday night, here at home vs. Miami. The Grizzlies lost 129-103 in a game they were favored to win by two points. They shot just 38.6% from the field. But the big problem was allowing the Heat to hit 21 three-pointers. The Grizz were down 16 at the end of the first quarter and never really got close after that. Needless to say, you should expect a much better effort tonight. Memphis isn’t just looking to bounce back from a bad loss, they also are playing with triple revenge tonight. They lost all three matchups with Denver last year. But take note two of those losses were decided by a total of three points. What’s interesting about this matchup is that the Grizzlies have been far better at the offensive end than Denver this year, but much worse defensively. I just can’t see the Grizz dropping B2B games as a home favorite nor can I see the Nuggets winning B2B games as a road underdog. 10* Memphis |
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11-01-21 | Spurs v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers are off to a dismal start at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) is hurt and listed as questionable for tonight. In addition to that, Caris LeVert (who played for the first time in Saturday’s 97-94 loss to Toronto) is on a minutes restriction as he continues to work his way back from offseason back surgery. But I see the wounded Pacers picking up a win tonight over a San Antonio team that’s off a big upset and unlikely to win two straight on the road. Lay the short number here. The Spurs are 2-4 SU. They’ve actually covered the number in the first two games of this three-game trip, first losing in Dallas by only five points (were 7-point dogs) and then shocking Milwaukee 102-93 on Saturday, once again as a seven-point dog. Coming off a win over the NBA Champs means a “letdown” is likely in order for Greg Popovich’s team on Monday. This isn’t “your older brothers Spurs” by any stretch of the imagination. Coming into tonight, I’ve got them in the bottom seven of my own personal power ratings. Indiana isn’t much higher than San Antonio in the ratings, but I do have the ahead by a couple points. So with the home court advantage tonight, the Pacers seem like a logical play. I know that the injuries are a concern, but this is a team that could have a much better record right now. Three of their losses have been by three points or less, including two by exactly one point (first two games). The Spurs benefited from the Bucks shooting VERY poorly on Saturday night. Off B2B sub-100 point efforts, I think the Pacers are set to break out at the offensive end tonight. 8* Indiana |
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10-30-21 | Jazz v. Bulls +4 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The Bulls suffered their first loss of the season on Thursday and I was happy to see it. No disrespect to those in the Windy City, I just happened to be on the team they were playing (Knicks) and it was my *10* Game of the Month. It was a tight game with the Knicks (who were slight underdogs) ultimately prevailing 104-103. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the news didn’t get any better on Friday when it was learned that forward Patrick Williams would be out for the remainder of the regular season due to a fractured wrist. That’s a literal “ouch” for a team that had gotten off to a 4-0 start. Chicago’s opponent on Saturday is Utah and the Jazz have also started 4-0 SU. That’s less surprising than the Bulls’ 4-0 start as the Jazz were universally projected to be one of the top teams in the West this season. Thus far, they’ve overwhelmed some pretty bad teams, beating Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Denver and Houston by an average of 18.2 points per game. Only one of those previous opponents (Denver) made the playoffs last season. I said going into that aforementioned Knicks-Bulls game that I wasn’t surprised Chicago was undefeated (based on who they’d played). I say the same for the Jazz here. Despite being off a loss and the Williams’ injury, I’m taking the Bulls plus the points in this one. Utah is the only unbeaten team left in the league - whether you are talking straight up or against the spread. It’s just a matter of time before a loss is hung on them in both regards. With Chicago’s only loss this season coming by a single point, I think they are the team that will - at the very least - be the first to cover against the Jazz this year. When Utah faced Denver earlier in the week, they had three days off to get ready. This is their second road game in three days. Take the points. 10* Chicago |
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10-28-21 | Knicks +2 v. Bulls | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): One of the big early season winners looks to be Chicago, who is 4-0 for the first time since the halcyon days of Air Jordan. But let’s “pump the breaks” just a little bit as the Bulls have beaten the lowly Pistons twice as well as the Pelicans and Raptors. It was a three-point win in Toronto, which was enough to cover the spread (Bulls were -2) there, and it’s another short spread tonight for a team that’s not just 4-0 SU but also 4-0 ATS. However, this is where I think the streak comes to an end. The Knicks are off to a 3-1 SU start (also 3-1 ATS), their lone loss coming at home to Orlando of all teams. I happened to fade NY in that one defeat. But give them credit for bouncing back Tuesday night against Philadelphia for an emphatic 112-99 win. That ended a 15-game losing streak to the 76ers, so the win was more significant than normal. The key here is that the Knicks are averaging 118.8 PPG so far. While Chicago is allowing just 97.5 PPG, again, look at who they’ve played. The Bulls did lead the Raptors by as many as 20 points Tuesday, so the final score was somewhat misleading. However, I still am confident that their 4-0 SU/ATS run comes to an end tonight. Before the win over Toronto, the Bulls were 0-4 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when coming off three consecutive SU wins. So this is very much “uncharted territory” for them. The Knicks, a playoff team last year, are still the more “reliable” commodity and a deeper team. 10* New York |
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10-27-21 | Cavs +8 v. Clippers | Top | 92-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (10:35 ET): The Cavaliers are competing for HC Bernie Bickerstaff as they’ve pulled B2B upsets, beating Atlanta and Denver. They beat the spread by a combined 35 points in those two wins, yet are still pretty sizable underdogs for tonight’s visit to the Clippers. This Los Angeles team, which is without Kawhi Leonard and several other key players (all injured), just picked up its first win of the season Monday when they crushed Portland 116-86 here at home. But I don’t think we’ll see anything close to a repeat of that performance here tonight. In addition to Leonard being out indefinitely, the Clips have yet to get any minutes this season from Serge Ibaka or Jason Preston. Marcus Morris is also questionable with a knee injury after missing the Portland game. Paul George has picked up the slack by averaging 28.7 PPG, but I don’t think the team can count on Luke Kennard shooting as well as he did on Monday when he matched a career-high with six three-pointers. Nor can LA count on Cleveland shooting as poorly as Portland did that day. The Blazers went 8 for 37 from behind the arc in that game. The Cavs pulled their two upsets thanks to some solid play on the defensive end. They held both the Hawks and Nuggets under 100 points. At the offensive end, the Cavs have had a different leading scorer in all four games. Is this a great team or even one that will make the playoffs? Probably not. But they’ve shown they’ve got the “goods” to at least stick within the number against a Clippers team that isn’t as good as it’s been in years’ past. Take the points in this one. 10* Cleveland |
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10-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2 | Top | 96-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Trail Blazers are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss at the Clippers Monday night. Even though it’s still early in the season, they can ill-afford anything close to a repeat of that performance as they host Memphis tonight on ESPN. The Blazers have dropped two of three so far, but did blow out the reigning Western Conference Champs (Phoenix) here at home over the weekend. I don’t think it’s asking too much for them to bounce back and win at home. Memphis 2-1 SU and has covered the spread in every game. They are coming off their first loss of the season, 121-118 to the Lakers on Sunday. Though the Grizzlies have been off for two days, this marks their third consecutive road game and they are also in Golden State tomorrow night. Ja Morant has been excellent, averaging 35 points and eight assists per game. But can he keep up THOSE kind of numbers? Probably not. Note that the Grizz have been behind at halftime each of the last two games. I’m expecting a big bounce back game from Damian Lillard tonight after he missed all eight three-point attempts against the Clippers. Also, Portland turned the ball over 30 times in that game. Lillard has had a cold start to the season, shooting just 36 percent and averaging 17.0 PPG. My guess is he’s going to be highly motivated going against Morant. The Blazers are traditionally a strong home team and seeing them lay such a short number, I can’t help but think we’re getting a “discount” in this one. 8* Portland |
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10-26-21 | Warriors v. Thunder +9.5 | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): As we all anticipated, it’s been a rough start to the season for OKC. The Thunder are 0-3 - both SU and ATS - and every loss has been by 12 points or more. But, even by their low standard, a fourth straight double digit loss to start the season seems unlikely. You just don’t see that very often. So I’ll call for a “circle the wagons” type performance tonight at home and take the points. Golden State is 3-0 SU and covered the spread in two of the wins. I took them on Opening Night when they “upset” the Lakers 121-114 as 3.5 point dogs. From there, they’ve since defeated the Clippers 115-103 and the Kings 119-107. In both instances, the Warriors were three-point favorites. Now they face their largest spread of the season. Oddsmakers are calling for a margin of victory that they’ve achieved only once thus far. The Warriors did defeat the Kings by 12 points on Sunday, but that was a game where they led by only two going into the fourth quarter. Steph Curry has been a bit inconsistent, scoring 45 points in the win against the Clippers but making just 6 of 23 three-point attempts in the other two games. The way I look at things, it’s very hard for a team to go four straight games without being competitive. The Thunder have shot 40.6% overall and 26.6% from three in the first three games. Those numbers are bound to improve and I believe they will tonight. 10* Oklahoma City |
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10-25-21 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Playing without Zion Williamson (out indefinitely with a foot injury), the Pelicans are off to an 0-3 SU start. But despite a horrid shooting night on Saturday, they still managed to cover the spread here in Minnesota. They shot 34.8% from the field and were 9 of 40 from three-point range in the 96-89 loss to the T’wolves. Not to mention they turned the ball over a franchise record 30 times! But New Orleans was a 7.5-point dog in that one, so they left with the cash. I anticipate the same thing will happen tonight. Take the points. While it was just a half-point cover on Saturday, you’ve got to figure the Pelicans are going to shoot the ball better this evening. Devonte Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were the primary offenders, combining to shoot a horrendous 3 of 23 from three-point range. You’ve got to figure that duo will be much better tonight AND the number of turnovers will be cut down significantly. In the Pelicans’ previous game, Graham and Alexander-Walker were 9 of 17 from behind the arc. Because they are still winless, expect New Orleans to come out “hungry” on Monday. They did not get off to a good start to Saturday’s game, which was the second night of a back to back for them. Minnesota is 2-0 SU with the other win coming against a rebuilding Houston team. It’s fairly shocking to see the T’wolves favored in the first three games of the season. I don’t think they’re a very good basketball team and the defensive numbers we’ve seen so far will not be sustained. 10* New Orleans |
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10-24-21 | Magic +12 v. Knicks | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): A young Magic team that doesn’t have a single starter over the age of 23 has gotten off to an 0-2 start. Both losses have been blowouts. First, they fell by 26 to the Spurs. Then it was by 25 to the team they’ll face again Sunday, the Knicks. Against San Antonio, Orlando was at least competitive for most of the first half. The same cannot be said for Friday’s game with the Knicks where many fans in their own building were cheering for the road team. But I expect this one to be closer. Take the points. New York set a team record for most made threes in a game with 24 on Friday. That is not going to be replicated. The Knicks went to double overtime in their first game, winning a wild one, 138-134 over Boston. So they are 2-0 for the first time since 2012. Do I expect them to win this game? Yes. But covering a double digit spread is a different matter. The line closed at -8 for Friday’s game with the Magic. Now the linesmakers obviously had to account for the change in home court advantage as well as the final margin from Friday. But this looks like a classic overreaction. Orlando isn’t going to have a great year, but they will be desperate to avoid a third straight double digit loss to open the season. The Knicks are a team I expect to regress a bit this year as they can’t count on holding opponents to the lowest 3PT FG% in the league again like they did last season. 8* Orlando |
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10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Boston lost a tough one on Wednesday, dropping their first game in OT to the Knicks by a score of 138-134. Jaylen Brown, despite spending the majority of the previous 10 days in quarantine (COVID-19), scored 46 points for the Celtics. But obviously those went to waste. Jayson Tatum did not shoot the ball well at all, going 7 for 30 from the field including 2 of 15 from three-point range. The Celtics now turn around and host another division rival, that being Toronto. I think the spread is too high here. The Raptors also lost their first game, albeit in much lower-scoring fashion compared to the Celtics. They went down 98-83 at home to the Wizards. As you can tell from the score, it was not a banner shooting night from the NBA’s Canadian contingent. They made only 30.9% of their field goal attempts and were a dreadful 7 of 34 from three-point range. You have to figure - even with leading scorer Pascal Siakam sidelined - that we will see better shooting tonight. Even with Siakam hurt and Kyle Lowry traded in the offseason, I think there's a case that Toronto will be better than it was last season. Despite going 27-45 SU in 2020-21, the Raptors were only outscored by 0.4 PPG. They were essentially playing to the level of a .500 team before the bottom dropped out at the end of the season and they lost their last seven games (injuries). This is a revenge game for them after being swept in LY’s season series. I look for this to be a close game that comes down to the wire. 9* Toronto |
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10-21-21 | Bucks -2 v. Heat | Top | 95-137 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks began the defense of their NBA Championship with a convincing 127-104 victory over Brooklyn on Opening Night. What was so impressive about that is they won by 23 despite the Nets shooting 53.1% from three-point range! And it’s not like the Bucks were exactly “on fire” from behind the arc; they made just 17 of 45 attempts. But they had 21 more FG attempts than Brooklyn did and Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 32-14-7 and shot 12/25 from the floor. This is Miami’s season opener. They come into 2021-22 with some new faces, most notably Kyle Lowry, who they obtained in trade with Toronto. He joins Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as the three cornerstones of the team. The Heat are hoping Lowry helps them move up the Eastern Conference standings after a sixth place finish last year. But this is a tough first game against the team that swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Three of those four games were decided by double digits. I don’t think the Heat are THAT much better now than they were in May. The Heat did not have a particularly impressive net efficiency rating or point differential last season. They very much were a slightly above average team. The Bucks had the East’s best point differential and obviously went on to win the whole thing. Seeing as the better team already has a game under its belt, I consider that to be a pretty significant advantage for Thursday night’s game. The Bucks are likely to shoot better here than they did on Tuesday, which is a frightening proposition for Miami. 10* Milwaukee |
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10-19-21 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Warriors’ 2020-21 season came to an end in the play-in round and the Lakers were partly responsible for that. The league’s very first play-in game saw these teams match up and it was LA winning 103-100 on a last second LeBron James’ three-pointer. Golden State would get a second chance to advance to the playoffs, but also lost that one, 117-112 to Memphis (in overtime). Still, last season was an improvement for the Dubs after plummeting to the worst record in the league two years ago. Meanwhile, there was only one way to go for the Lakers after winning the NBA Championship in 2020. As is obvious by the fact they were in the play-in round, LA regressed heavily last season. Only three players are back from LY’s team, two of them being LeBron James and Anthony Davis. So I would not count on a fast start from “Showtime” in 2021-22. LeBron is now 36 years old and has played the second most minutes in NBA history. For what it’s worth, with all the new faces, the Lakers were 0-6 SU in the preseason. Golden State was 5-0 SU in its preseason, two of those wins coming against the Lakers! It is clear that the Warriors are getting back to the mentality that brought them multiple NBA Championships and that mentality involves shooting a lot of threes. We started to see it at the end of last year’s regular season. Steph Curry scored 41 in the final preseason game and with him and Draymond Green on the court at the same time, the Dubs destroyed opponents (provided James Wiseman was also NOT on the court). The revenge angle is big here and I don’t think Russell Westbrook is ready to be a difference maker for the Lakers just yet. Take the points. 8* Golden State |
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07-17-21 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Zig-zag theory be damned, I’m fading Phoenix again in Game 5. While it was a somewhat fortuitous cover on the Bucks in Game 4 (they trailed by as many as nine in the 4Q), the key here is that the surprisingly large edge in FG% that the Suns enjoyed in the last game simply isn’t likely to be present again. They shot 51.3 percent from the floor in Game 4 - while Milwaukee shot just 40.2 percent - and still LOST. Even though they are on the road again, the Bucks shooting is likely to improve here and that makes taking the points seem like the logical option to me. Now Suns’ fans are obviously going to decry the foul trouble that Devin Booker was in throughout Game 4. Booker still ended up scoring 42 points, but spent long stretches on the bench due to the aforementioned foul trouble. Honestly, he should have fouled out of the game with a few minutes left. It’s very likely that Booker ends up not being whistled for as many fouls at home, but I don’t see him going for 40+ points again. The fact no one else on the team contributed more than 15 points in Game 4 should be worrisome to Suns fans. I just don’t see the team shooting as well as it did overall in the last game. Kris Middleton was the Game 4 hero for Milwaukee, who now looks to end an 0-5 SU/ATS streak in Phoenix. Middleton scored 40 Wednesday night, a number that teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo exceeded each of the previous two contests. Right now, I simply have more faith in the Bucks’ top scorers being able to collectively lift the team up (don’t forget Jrue Holiday) compared to their Suns’ counterparts. Milwaukee has to be pleased with the fact they have this series tied despite Phoenix finishing with a higher FG% in every game. Eventually, the Bucks are going to shoot better. I’ll bank on that happening tonight. 10* Milwaukee |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 in the series, the Bucks got the win they desperately needed in Game 3 and did so in emphatic fashion. Leading virtually the entire way, they had no problem covering the 4.5-point spread. It wound up 120-100 with Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 41 points. The home team is now 3-0 SU/ATS in this series. Phoenix has not lost B2B games since the first round series vs. the Lakers and is 13-3 SU in its L16 games. They are 2-0 ATS off a SU loss during that time. But Milwaukee is very tough at home where they are 34-11 SU for the season with just one loss in the playoffs. I’m laying the points in Game 4. Remember when it was thought that an injured Antetokounmpo might not be a factor in this series? Neither do I. Kidding, but Antetokounmpo is off B2B 40+ point games. He went for 20-17 in Game 1. Clearly, he’s not hobbled by his left knee injury any longer. At home, he can expect help from Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom had good Game 3 performances. That duo combined to go 14 of 28 from the field and 8 of 17 from three-point range. The team averages 119.3 PPG at home. I expect a similar offensive effort to Game 3. Phoenix did not have a strong offensive effort in Game 3. Devin Booker really struggled, going 3 of 14 from the field, including 1 of 7 from three-point range. He finished with only 10 points. Booker figures to better those numbers in Game 4, but I also don’t think the Suns will shoot 48.2% from the floor again like they did Sunday. Milwaukee seems to have a huge edge in the paint and they outscored Phoenix by 15 pts from behind the arc in G3. Look for the home team to win again. 10* Milwaukee |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Even with the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks could not overcome Chris Paul and the Suns in Game 1 Tuesday night. Antetokounmpo didn’t just play, he contributed a strong effort with 20 points and 17 rebounds. Teammate Khris Middleton had 29 points. But where the Bucks were really hurt was the free throw line. Not only did they have 10 fewer attempts, they had 16 fewer makes. Phoenix was 25 of 26 from the charity stripe while Milwaukee was 9 of 16. That difference was basically identical to the difference in the final score. I look for a much tighter Game 2 and possible Bucks’ outright win. Take the points. Following their last three playoff losses, the Bucks have come back to win and cover the spread in the next game. All three wins were by double digits and the average margin of victory was 20.0 PPG! Now every one of those games was played in Milwaukee. But the Bucks have proven they can win on the road. They did so in Game 7 vs. Brooklyn in Round 2 and took two of three in Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals. While the Suns have opened the last two series with B2B wins, Game 2 vs. the Clippers was decided by just a single point (on a last second alley-oop). Phoenix lost its backup center (Dario Sakic) to a season-ending ACL injury in Game 1. While they were able to persevere and win the game, depth is now a bit of a concern. With Antetokounmpo back, this spread seems a bit high. I know he played in Game 1 and the Bucks still lost, but this team is 10-4 SU off a DD loss this season and 4-1 when trailing in a playoff series. I see Jrue Holiday scoring more than 10 points (his Gm 1 total) in Game 2. He missed all four three-point attempts. The Bucks are allowing just 104.5 PPG in the playoffs and I expect a better effort at the defensive end tonight. 10* Milwaukee |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): This has become a difficult series to handicap as each team’s best player is injured and we don't know (for sure) what their statuses are for Game 6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently listed as doubtful for Milwaukee while Trae Young is questionable for Atlanta. What we do know however is that when each team has stepped up without its star player, it has been at home. The Hawks have won 15 of their last 18 home games going back to the end of the regular season and facing elimination, they are my call here (minus the points). Consider it a bonus if Young suits up. Young is more likely to play than Antetokounmpo tonight, not just because of the severity of injuries, but also because Atlanta is trying to stay alive. But it must be pointed out that the team had its best shooting night in a while, minus Young, the last time they played here at home. They basically dominated the entire game and won by 22. That was with Antetokounmpo playing more than half. The Bucks got 100+ points from their starters in Game 5, but asking for that again is probably a case of “asking for too much.” The reserves only scoring 17 in the last game is cause for concern as they now have to go on the road. Atlanta had its best overall shooting night of the series in Game 4, then had its best three-point shooting night in Game 5. So they’ve proven they can take care of business without Young. The same can be said for Milwaukee w/o Giannis due to what happened in Game 5, but the fact the Hawks are back at home now is a big reason why I am on them. Also, they are 2-0 SU/ATS when trailing in the series during this postseason. Milwaukee has lost four of its last six games on the road. The Hawks have lost B2B games only two times in the playoffs. So look for them to force a Game 7. 10* Atlanta |
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06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 130-103 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 0 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers lost their first three home playoff games (all to Dallas) before winning the next five. That streak came to an end in Game 4 of this series, a spot I faded them, as they lost an ugly 84-80 contest. But if nothing else, the Clippers have proven themselves resilient throughout this postseason. Everyone knows they are the first team in NBA Playoff history to overcome multiple 0-2 series deficits in the same postseason. Well, now they are trying to overcome a 3-1 series deficit against the Suns. They took the first step in doing so, winning Game 5 116-102 as a 5.5-point dog. After cashing them in that spot, I’ll take them again as they return home for Game 6. Phoenix is averaging just over 100 PPG (100.4 to be exact) in this series. That number gets a lot lower if you take out their 120-114 win in Game 1. As I mentioned in the Game 5 analysis, despite being down in the series, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns. Their margin of victory in Game 3 (14 points) exceeded the combined margin of victory in Phoenix’s three wins (11). Now, after Game 5, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns by a total of 17 points across the five games. Had they properly defended that out of bounds play at the end of Game 2, they would be the ones with a chance to move on to the NBA Finals tonight. The Clippers are 8-3 ATS this postseason when trailing in the series. They are now 3-0 ATS when facing elimination. The Suns averaged just 88 PPG in the two prior games here in LA and has not scored more than 104 in any of the last four games. With Kawhi Leonard still out, both Paul George and Reggie Jackson have stepped up big time. For the Suns, Chris Paul has not been good since returning from his COVID-related absence. He’s 0 for 9 from three-point range in the L2 games. The Suns are just 2-10 ATS their L12 road games vs. the Clippers. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series could be “all over but the shouting” if Trae Young is unable to go for Atlanta. Young, who is easily the best player for Atlanta, sprained his ankle near the end of the third quarter in Game 3 and was clearly affected by it. The Hawks were outscored 30-17 in the 4Q, which basically decided the game. An MRI revealed Young has a bone bruise in his right foot. His status for tonight is questionable and while I’m sure he’s going to want to go, just how effective can he be? Even with improved 3-point shooting in Game 3, the Hawks still lost by double digits. Lay the points here. Obviously, you have to be careful NOT to overreact to an injury. But it’s difficult to overstate what a loss Young would be for the Hawks. This is not like the Clippers, who have Paul George to “pick up the slack” without Kawhi Leonard. Even if he does play, will Young be able to attack with his patented “floaters?” Or will he be relegated to being a jump shooter? He’s had some dreadful shooting nights in these playoffs, including Game 2 of this series. Milwaukee is a very good defensive team as they’ve allowed just 102.4 PPG in the playoffs. Over its last five games, all with Young, Atlanta has topped 103 just once. The Hawks have not been favored to win a game since Game 4 of the first round. So it’s impressive enough that they’ve got this far. I did take them in both Games 1 and 3 of this series (got a win and a loss there), but my feeling now is that their run is likely over and this series is probably ending in five games. Atlanta’s three-point shooting had been really bad for several games before improving on Sunday. But with Young injured and possibly out, it’s going to decline greatly. Believe it or not, but this is the first time the Bucks are ahead in a series since the first round. They went 3-0 ATS vs. Miami once they grabbed the series lead. 10* MIlwaukee |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have made a habit of climbing out of precarious positions this postseason, but the current one is the most precarious they have been in so far. An ugly 84-80 loss in Game 4 has them down 3-1 in this Western Conference Finals and facing elimination. Even though they’ve lost the first two games of all three series, the Clips have faced elimination just twice before. Those were Games 6 & 7 in the first round against Dallas and both saw them turn in outstanding efforts. Granted, they had Kawhi Leonard back then, but I think they’ve got enough left to at least still cover tonight. Take the points. Phoenix overcame some awful shooting, including 4 of 20 from 3-point range, to win Game 4. They are now hitting just over 25% from behind the arc over the L3 games. You might be fearful that they are “due” to improve, but the same could be said for the Clippers, who were even more dreadful in the last game. They made only 32.5% from the field and were 5 of 31 from three-point range. They also missed 11 free throws, which was killer. Considering LA was #1 in the league from three-point range in the regular season, I think their shooting is set to improve more in this game. Even though Phoenix has won three of the four games, they’ve actually been outscored over the course of the series! They’ve yet to win a game by more than six points. Considering that and just how low scoring the series has been, taking the points seems like a real prudent move here. This series could easily be 2-2 right now had the Clippers properly defended the out of bounds play at the end of Game 2. They are 7-3 ATS when behind in the series this postseason and this could be only the 4th time all season that they’ve been an underdog of 5.5 or more points. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): The Hawks are off a terrible loss in Game 2 as they were beaten by 34 points. It was 77-42 at halftime with the second quarter turning into a complete massacre as the Bucks outscored the Hawks 43-17. But now the Hawks get to come home where they have won 14 of their last 16 games. You’ve gotta think they’re shooting is going to improve as they made only 25% of their three-point shots in Milwaukee. Trae Young in particular is due for a bounce back as he went 1 for 8 behind the arc in Game 2. That was after he had 48 points in Game 1. Take the points in Game 3. No one on the Hawks scored more than 15 points in Game 2, which is really unbelievable when you think about it. It’s not just Young who I see “raising his game” tonight, but the supporting cast as well. Remember that role players often perform much better at home. There are four other double digit scorers on Atlanta besides Young (Collins, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Huerter) and you should expect at least one of them to step up here. This team is 20-6 ATS its L26 home games and 3-1 ATS off a SU loss in the playoffs. Milwaukee shot 52.5% in Game 2 as they were able to consistently get better looks. But just as Atlanta’s production from its supporting cast should increase in this game, the Bucks’ supporting cast production should decrease. Friday was their highest scoring game in the postseason since Game 2 of the Miami series (Round 1). They never scored more than 108 in any of the four games at Brooklyn in Round 2. Jrue Holiday scored 55 points in the first two games of this series, an average he will not maintain moving forward, and most of Kris Middleton’s big games come at home. 10* Atlanta |
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06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Clippers won Game 3 at home and hope a familiar pattern continues tonight as they look to even this Western Conference Finals up at two games apiece. As you know, the Clippers have lost the first two games of all three of their playoff series. In each of the previous two instances, they have battled back to win Games 3 and 4. In the case of the Utah series, they won four straight after being down 0-2. No team in NBA Playoff history had previously EVER won multiple series in the same postseason when falling behind 0-2. So the Clippers are really defying the odds and doing so without Kawhi Leonard makes it all the more impressive. But I think the pattern is going to be broken tonight by Phoenix. The Suns certainly won’t shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 3 when they made only 38.9% from the field, including 10 of 32 from three-point range. After missing the first two games due to quarantine, Chris Paul returned for the Suns in Game 3 and did not shoot well (5 for 19). Nor did Devin Booker, who was 5 of 21. Booker had 40 points in the Game 1 victory, but has struggled with his shot the L2 games. Do not be surprised if he has a big game tonight. The Suns are 6-3 ATS off a double-digit loss this season. With their shooting likely to improve from Game 3, hopefully we’ll also be seeing a typical effort from the Suns at the defensive end as well. In the playoffs, they have held the opposition to just 102.4 PPG on 42.9% shooting. That’s pretty impressive in the “modern NBA.” The potential loss of backup PG Cameron Payne is a bit of a concern, but the Clippers are reeling more when Leonard still out and Marcus Morris being listed as a “gametime decision.” LA has no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside and Paul George’s minutes are really starting to add up. Might fatigue become a factor for George? The Suns have lost B2B games only four times this season. 10* Phoenix |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
8* 1st Half LA Clippers (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. You’d be hard pressed to find a situation where a team is going to come out more motivated than when down 0-2 in the series and playing at home. That’s the situation the Clippers are in, once again. I made them my top play for the entire 2nd round when they faced this very situation against Utah. They won that game 132-106 and enjoyed a sizable halftime advantage. I also took them when they were down 0-2 in the Dallas series and they won that game 118-108. Not as confident this time about winning the game, but I definitely expect LA to be leading Phoenix at halftime tonight. This series could easily be tied 1-1, but Paul George missed a couple of late free throws (after the Clippers got a gift call) and then the Suns pulled off the miraculous out of bounds play to win Game 2. That was the ninth straight win for Phoenix, who is shooting better than 50% in the series. Even if Chris Paul plays tonight, I don’t see that kind of shooting from them tonight. The Clippers have shot well from three-point range in this series and I do see that continuing considering they were #1 in the league in 3PT % during the regular season. Since 2005, NBA home teams down 0-2 in the series and playing Game 3 at home have covered the first half line roughly two-thirds of the time. So history, not just their own, is on the Clippers side tonight. The fact they have fallen into their third straight 0-2 series hole is a little shocking, but I’ve got no doubt that they’re coming out hot early. They’ve actually trailed the Suns at the half each of the last four times they’ve faced them. But three of those four deficits were three points or smaller. 8* 1st Half LA Clippers |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): They were outscored by 20 points in the series, but the Hawks won in seven games against the 76ers to advance to just their second Conference Final in the last 50 years. Three of the four wins were by four points or less, two of them saw them rally from a deficit of at least 16 points. After coming out red hot in Game 1 at Philadelphia, the Hawks never really regained their shooting touch, which makes the series win all the more improbable. I realize that none of this sounds like a “ringing endorsement,” but I’ll call for Atlanta’s shooting to improve and for them to cover the spread in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Just like Atlanta, Milwaukee needed to win a Game 7 on the road to get here. But the Bucks are now the favorites to win the NBA Championship after getting by Brooklyn and they’ve got the home court advantage. They’ve yet to lose a home game in the postseason (5-0 SU) and don’t forget they swept Miami in Round 1. However, the Hawks have traveled well in the playoffs, winning five of their seven road games against the Sixers and Knicks. I don’t think the one extra day of rest is going to matter much for Milwaukee. In fact, they are just 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games on 3+ days rest. The key for me here is that the Hawks’ shooting HAS to improve after what we saw in the last five games (42.9 FG%). That they won a Game 7 on the road while shooting 25.9% from three and their best player (Trae Young) going 5 for 23 overall was a minor miracle. This is a team that shoots 36.8% from 3-point range for the year. They’ve been below that average each of the L5 games, so they are due to regain their touch, Young in particular. Something that most don’t know is that the Hawks have the best SU record in the Eastern Conference (31-14) since Nate McMillan took over. Take the points. 10* Atlanta |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): I passed on Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals as both teams came in on ATS win streaks (Clippers 4-0 L4, Suns 7-0 L7) but minus big stars. I was also unsure on how to handicap the difference in rest. What ended up happening was the Suns winning 120-114 and just barely covering the four-point spread (thanks to last second free throws). After taking the “wait and see approach,” I’m fairly confident that Phoenix won’t be able to shoot 55.1% from the field again. So take the points as I don’t think the number should be higher here than it was for Game 1. The Clippers actually drained seven more threes compared to the Suns on Sunday. Typically that results in victory, but not for Ty Lue’s team as Phoenix was far better on its two-point attempts, going 36 of 57, which is a ridiculous 63.1%. Devin Booker had a massive game, scoring 40 points to go along with 13 rebounds and 11 assists. I’m pretty confident that Booker isn’t going to be that good again. The rest of the Suns team (sans Booker) attempted only two free throws in Game 1, which is odd. No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers has meant Paul George stepping up. In the three game without Leonard, George has scored 37, 28 and 34 points. Remember that the Suns are playing without Chris Paul. The Clips are the first team in NBA history to win two series in the same postseason in which they lost the first two games. They don’t dare fall into an 0-2 hole for the third consecutive series. They’ve been good on the road so far, winning all three games in Dallas and then Game 5 in Utah. You have to think that Phoenix’s 8-0 ATS run is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Take the points. 8* LA Clippers |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): While it’s come down to a winner take all Game 7, I feel that the 76ers have largely dominated this series. I took them in Game 6, which they obviously won, and will reiterate much of what I said in that analysis. They’ve now outscored by Atlanta by 27 points over the course of six games. All three Hawks’ wins have been by four points or less (10 total) and in two of them they had to erase a deficit of 18 points of greater. Since losing Game 1, Philadelphia has shot better than 40% from three-point range. I will lay the points in Game 7 with what I feel is the better team. When I (successfully) played Atlanta in Game 1, a lot of my rationale had to do with the knee injury suffered by 76ers’ MVP candidate Joel Embiid. Well, save for a terrible second half in Game 4, Embiid has shown no ill-effects from that knee injury. He has been the best player in the series, averaging more than 30 points per game. In the three games here at home, Embiid has averaged 38.7 PPG, scoring at least 37 every time. He did not get to the free throw line much in Game 6 (only 4 attempts), but I expect that number to improve rather dramatically in Game 7. As a team, Philly shot just 40.9% on Friday, another number that should rise here. The last five games have seen the Hawks average only 104.8 PPG on 43.1% shooting. Sadly (for them), I do not see those numbers going up much in this game. Trae Young basically kept them in Game 6 all by himself, scoring more than a third of the team’s total points. With Game 7 being on the road, it’s less likely that his “supporting cast” steps up. Atlanta has a losing road record this year. De’Andre Hunter is a big loss at the defensive end. For Philadelphia, Ben Simmons is going to easily top his sorry six-point effort from the last game and the Sixers’ starting five is likely to attempt more than 14 total FTs as well. This series should already be over, but at least 76ers’ fans can now watch the clincher in person. 10* Philadelphia |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): It is almost incomprehensible to me that the 76ers are now trailing in this series. They’ve outscored Atlanta by 22 points. They’ve shot better than 50 percent from the field (51.3% to be exact) in the five games, including 46 of 104 (44%) from three-point range in the last four. One could argue that the series should actually be over, or at the very least it should be Philly leading 3-2 headed into Friday’s Game 6. But after blowing leads of 18 and 26 points in the L2 games, the Sixers now face elimination for the first time in these playoffs. While the last loss was completely demoralizing, I think they will step up to the challenge. Lay the points. Both Philly wins have been by 16 points while Atlanta’s three have been by 10 points … total! Not since a shockingly good Game 1 performance (where I took them) has Atlanta enjoyed a double digit advantage in any game in this series. The 76ers have been up double digits in each of the last four games! But none of that matters now after they shockingly blew a 72-46 lead (at home!) with just over 20 minutes to go in Game 5. The past two games have seen the Sixers shoot substantially better than the Hawks. But they’ve taken 26 fewer FG attempts and struggled from the FT line. That’s how you blow 18+ point leads in consecutive games. The good news from Game 5 - if you’re a Philly fan - is that Joel Embiid had 37 points. That was a nice bounce back from his 0 for 12 effort in the second half of Game 4. Seth Curry helped Embiid out with 36 points, a career playoff-high. But the rest of the team totaled only 33 points. Expect that number to rise in Game 6. Atlanta is without its best defender, DeAndre Hunter, which is eventually going to catch up with them. I realize the Hawks have won 14 of their last 15 home games. But the 76ers easily could have won both Games 3 and 4 here. They are 10-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. They’ll stay alive. 10* Philadelphia |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): With the Bucks leading 74-57 in the third quarter of Game 5, I was feeling pretty good about having laid the points. Then Kevin Durant struck. But as great as Durant was, that was a Milwaukee gag job. The Bucks now return home facing another potential early postseason exit. But I’m laying the points again. Brooklyn is 0-4 straight up in Milwaukee this season. Kyrie Irving is out. James Harden was ineffective Tuesday night. Durant, coming off perhaps his best game EVER, won’t be that good again. Lost in the virtuoso performance from Durant (1st player to EVER do 45-15-10 in a playoff game) is that Harden simply wasn’t very good in his surprise return to the lineup. He finished with just five points on 1 of 10 shooting, including 0 of 8 from three-point range. Both Durant and Harden played 46+ minutes with the former going the full 48. That was certainly a curious decision from HC Steve Nash. I understand leaving Durant in, given how hot he was. But playing a hobbled Harden that long seems unwise. Giannis Antetokounmpo was clearly outshined by Durant, but did turn in his third straight game with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. He came up small down the stretch, but it shouldn’t have come to that as the Bucks were up double digits most of the game. At home, with the season on the line, the Bucks should start to see their shots falling more. They’ve averaged just 98.8 PPG this series, on 43% shooting. They averaged 120.1 PPG during the regular season. In particular, the three-point shots should start to fall. We started to see that in Game 5 (13 of 32) and I think it continues here. 10* Milwaukee |
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06-15-21 | Bucks -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series has changed dramatically over the past two games as we’ve gone from Brooklyn being up 2-0 to things being all squared away at two games apiece. Not only that, the Nets are now without the services of both James Harden (injured in Game 1) and Kyrie Irving (injured in Game 4). That changes the outlook on this Eastern Conference semifinal quite dramatically and oddsmakers now have the Bucks favored to take Game 5 in Brooklyn. I have no hesitation laying the points here as you have to remember that the Bucks actually went off as favorites here in Game 2 (when the Nets had Irving). Now Brooklyn dominated Game 2, making the line movement look foolish. But it’s a whole different ball game now without Harden and Irving. Truthfully, I thought Milwaukee might be the better team coming into this series. They held the Nets to 83 and 96 points the last two games and I certainly think they can do the job defensively on the road now that two of the Nets’ superstars are M.I.A. Remember that they led by as many as 21 in Game 3 and then pulled away in Game 4 once Irving went down. Kevin Durant is going to have to shoulder a huge load for Brooklyn tonight. The problem is he went only 9 for 25 from the floor in the last game as PJ Tucker did an excellent job of guarding him. No one besides Durant had more than 11 points for the Nets in Game 4 as they missed 23 of 33 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee seems to have rediscovered its shooting touch after making 16 of 47 3PA in Game 4. Yet they still haven’t hit their season average of 38% in any game in this series. That has to be scary for Brooklyn, especially considering how Kris Middleton has been heating up. 10* Milwaukee |
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06-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this Western Conference semifinal as the Suns have the injury-plagued Nuggets outgunned and outclassed. Phoenix can end this series tonight and in the process win their seventh consecutive game. Since being down 2-1 in the first round series vs. the Lakers, a switch has seemingly “flipped” with this young team that I still think is being underrated. They had the second most wins in the regular season and are 6-0 ATS during the current win streak. I’m laying the points as the Suns should finish off the sweep Sunday. Remember that the Suns’ rise began in LY’s bubble when they went a perfect 8-0. Including that, they are 66-22 their L88 games overall! Chris Paul has taken control in this series, leading victories by 17, 25 and 14 points. That’s an average margin of victory of nearly 19 PPG. Keep in mind they also closed out the Lakers series with a pair of double digit wins, one of them coming by 30 points. The last five wins have all been by 13 points or more. They are allowing just 98.9 PPG in the playoffs! Denver hasn’t lost four in a row at any point this season, but that’s about to change. MVP Nikola Jokic just isn’t getting much help in this series. This just isn’t the same team without Jamal Murray. Campazzo, Morris and Rivers all overperformed against Portland, but that’s a bad defensive team. The Suns are playing lockdown defense right now. Even the return of Will Barton hasn’t meant much to the Nuggets’ cause. Over the L6 games, Phoenix has not allowed more than 105 points. 10* Phoenix |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): The Clippers are in an all-too familiar position here, that being down 0-2 in a best of seven series. The same thing happened in the first round against Dallas, although in that instance they lost the first two games at home. That series would become rather infamous for the road team capturing the first six games (1st time in NBA Playoff history). This one has been a bit more “traditional” with top seeded Utah winning the first two at home. The Clippers are now hoping it’s the home team that “rules the day” in Round 2 as the series shifts to Staples Center for the next two games. I’m laying the points in Game 3. The last time the Clips played at home, it was the most important game of the season - Game 7 vs. Dallas. I took them and they delivered a 126-111 victory. Both games in Salt Lake City were close as they were decided by three and six points. Despite being down by 21 in the second half Thursday, Ty Lue’s team did come back and even took a brief lead in the 4Q. They also were up by double digits for most of the first half in Game 1. Though 0-2 ATS so far in this round, home teams down 0-2 in the series are typically sound bets. It would be foolish to write off the Clippers here. Utah has won the first two games despite not having the services of Mike Conley. He’s questionable for tonight. On the road, Conley’s absence would loom larger. I seriously doubt the Jazz will shoot 55% again as they did in Game 2. They were also 20 of 39 (51.3%) from three-point range in Game 2. Again, the chances of replicating that kind of shooting on the road seem small. Donovan Mitchell HAS to cool off, right? I think it’s time for the Clippers to break out offensively in this one as their three-point shots will start to fall. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The story of the two games in Philadelphia was that each team was able to pick up a win following a hot start. I had the Hawks in Game 1 and they absolutely rolled (save for a shaky 4Q) thanks to a 42-point first quarter. I thought Game 2 was an obvious time to use the “zig zag theory” on Philadelphia and sure enough they jumped out to an early 18-point lead, held on, and won 118-102 victory as 6.5-point chalk. Now the series moves back to Atlanta - where the Hawks have won 13 in a row. I’ll “zig zag” again and take them as I’m surprised they opened as underdogs for Game 3. The loss of De’Andre Hunter (out for the season) is tough for Atlanta, but it’s not something they can’t overcome. Look for Trae Young to pick his shooting back up after a rare “off-night” in Game 2. After going for 35 points in Game 1, Young was held to only 21 in Game 2 and in particular, he struggled from three-point range by going just 1 for 7. The Hawks also seem to have a massive edge on the bench as their reserves have outscored their Sixers’ counterparts by almost a 2:1 margin through two games. And those two were played on the road. At home is typically where reserves play better. So expect the edge in bench points to be even bigger for Atlanta here. Joel Embiid has been great in the first two games, but remember he’s (theoretically) hobbled by a knee injury. The Sixers’ reserves had ZERO points in the 1H of Game 2 and aren’t likely to be bailed out by Shake Milton (14 pts in Gm 2) again. Let’s go back to something I said in the Game 1 analysis. Since Nate McMillan took over as HC, the Hawks have the best win percentage in the East, despite not always being fully healthy. Their last home loss was nearly two months ago. Philly has shot very well in the first two games (52%). Expect that to decline on the road. 8* Atlanta |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Through two games, things have not gone well for the Bucks. Ghosts of playoffs past seem to have reemerged as the team is shooting a woeful 29 percent from three-point range in the series. So much for that 1st round sweep of Miami convincing people (like myself) that this Bucks team would be different? Not so fast. The series now heads back to Milwaukee where there will be an obvious improvement in the Bucks’ shooting. As for Brooklyn, there’s just no way they can hope to maintain their current percentages of 55% overall, 44% from three and 88% from the FT line. Let’s not forget that sharp money was all over Milwaukee heading into Game 2. Said money turned out to not be so “sharp” as the Bucks were annihilated 125-86 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’d opened +2.5, so that line move was significant. I know Game 2 was a horrible performance, but it seems like we’re getting a discount here on the Bucks at home. This is a team that’s 28-10 SU on its home floor this season and averaging more than 120 PPG. Through two games, Milwaukee has been outscored by 66 points from behind the three-point line. That is simply not going to continue. They were one of the better 3-pt shooting teams in the regular season. Have we also forgotten about James Harden? He’s still out with a hamstring injury. I know Kevin Durant has been “out of his mind” and there’s only so much you can do to stop him. But on the road, I don’t think he’ll shoot 12 for 18 again like he did in Game 2. The triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James has given the Nets 79 points in the first two games. Role players tend to struggle more on the road, so their production should dip as well. This is basically “do or die” for Milwaukee as another loss would have them down 0-3 and the season would basically be over. Lay the points as I expect an inspired effort. 10* Milwaukee |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -4 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:05 ET): The Clippers were good to me on Sunday (they were my 10* Game of the Week!) but I’ll gladly fade them here coming off the Game 7 victory. Yes, they went 3-0 SU/ATS on the road in the Dallas series. But winning at Salt Lake City will not be as easy. The top-seeded Jazz are not only rested (last played on 6/2), but they are 33-6 SU on their home court this season. They did drop Game 1 here to the Grizzlies, but that should only serve to have them MORE ready to go in the second round opener. They won the last four games of the Memphis series by an average of 11.25 points per game. Lay it! Keep in mind that Jazz PG Donovan Mitchell sat in Game 1 vs. Memphis. Upon returning to the lineup, he averaged 28.5 points and 5.8 assists per game. The team scored 120 or more in all four first round victories. As you might guess from a 33-6 SU record, this has been a dominant home team as they’ve won here by an average of nearly 13 PPG this season. In my first round analysis, I called the Clippers the #2 team in my power ratings, but guess who’s #1? I’m not here to say that the Clips don’t have a chance in this series; I just think it’s a terrible situation they’re facing here in Game 1 with the quick turnaround. Only five teams in NBA history have lost the first two games of a best of seven series at home and come back to win the series. The Clippers are the fifth. So they are definitely a bit lucky to be here. The league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, they struggled from behind the arc in the first round.. But then they finally had a break out effort in Game 7. Not sure I see a carryover though as Utah keeps its opponents to 32.8% from three-point range here at home. The Jazz took two of three regular season meetings, are 9-3 ATS L12 vs. LA and 20-8-1 ATS L29 times hosting them. 8* Utah |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): I took the Hawks in Game 1, and while it definitely got a bit “dicey” at the end, I couldn’t have been more pleased with how things went. Trae Young and company jumped on the East’s #1 seed early with a 42 point first quarter. Atlanta led by 15 after 1Q, 20 at halftime and 16 after 3Q. But I’m not sure how anyone could bet the Hawks with any confidence in Game 2 based on how poorly they closed the game. Philadelphia, down 17 with 4:42 remaining, got within two in the final minute. I watched in horror as Atlanta displayed some of the worst late game execution that I have ever seen. As mentioned above, the Hawks started out hot w/ a 42-point first quarter. They made 14 of their first 18 shots. But gradually, the 76ers adjusted defensively and showed why they were the #2 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It was their defense, specifically trapping, that got them back into the game. They used their size advantage and I expect to see lots more of that in Game 2. Philly lost just one other game previous to Game 1 this postseason (Game 4 vs. Wizards) and I backed them off that loss. They delivered a 129-112 and improved to 9-2 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. The other big story for Game 1 is that Joel Embiid played. He was great with 39 points and nine rebonds, showing no real ill effects from the injury he suffered in Round 1. As a team, the Sixers actually shot better than the Hawks in Game 1, 54.9% to 51.2%. But Atlanta made twice as many threes (20 to 10) and Philly missed 11 free throws (Ben Simmons being the biggest offender). I don’t see the three-point discrepancy repeating itself here in Game 2. Atlanta got the win it needed and can head home (where they’ve won 11 in a row) with no worse than a split. Classic zig-zag play here as the end of Game 1 should carry over into Game 2. Lay the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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06-07-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Suns | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): It’s not that often you can say it’s “surprising” to see a 2-seed in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs. But that’s how I view the Suns, who got by the Lakers in six games. Maybe it was a mistake to underestimate Phoenix, although the Lakers came into the postseason still favored to make a repeat trip to the Finals. After three games, it very much looked like the Suns would be “one and done,” but give them credit for taking advantage of a banged up Lakers team and winning three straight. Now they face a Denver team that is also dealing with injuries, but has adjusted much better than LA did. The Nuggets also won their 1st round series 4-2. Even with Portland’s best player (Damian Lillard) “going off” on a consistent basis, the Nuggets were still able to get the job done. PG Jamal Murray’s season is over and Will Barton is expected to miss Game 1 tonight. But the likes of Michael Porter Jr stepped up big time against the Blazers with three games of 25+ points. Of course, you’ve got Nikola Jokic as well. He averaged 33.0-10.5-4.5 in the first round and 25.7-13.7-8.3 against Phoenix in the regular season. The Nuggets won twice here in Phoenix and the road team actually won/covered all three regular season matchups. Don’t forget about Chris Paul’s injury and its effect on the Suns. Through the first three games of the Lakers’ series, it looked as if Paul's injured shoulder was going to sink them. I’ve got these teams rated far closer than the spread indicates, even after factoring in a slight home court edge for Phoenix. The Suns, who like to play slow, aren’t going to hold the Nuggets under 100 points like they were able to do against the Lakers. I’m not sure they have an answer defensively for Jokic. Denver has already overcome Lillard, so Cory Booker doesn’t necessarily scare me here. Take the points. 10* Denver |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): On the Nets’ very first offensive possession of Game 1, James Harden went down with an injury. He immediately went back to the locker room, never returned and has already been ruled out for Game 2. For most teams, the loss of a player like Harden would be devastating. But Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined for 54 points. Then you had the likes of Joe Harris, Blake Griffin and Mike James combining for 49. The Nets ended up taking control of Game 1 in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 115-107 as 3.5-point chalk. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games. I don’t think for a second that the triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James is giving Brooklyn almost 50 points again. Also concerning were the number of minutes logged by both Durant (40:06) and Irving (44:35) in Game 1. While the Nets are “used to” playing w/o Harden at this point, this is the playoffs and his absence is more significant. Harden missed 18 straight games from April 5th to May 11th and the team lost eight of those games. This is not a team I trust defensively and Milwaukee is going to shoot much better from 3-point range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. The Bucks also dominated the paint Saturday night, scoring 72 points. The Bucks did not shoot the ball well from 3-point range in Game 1 of the first round series against Miami. They missed 26 of 31 attempts. I immediately jumped on them for Game 2 and sure enough they shot 22 of 53 from behind the arc in a 132-98 blowout victory. Not saying it will be THAT easy tonight, but you can definitely count on improved 3-point shooting from Game 1 when they made just 6 of 30. This is a team that makes 38.3% of threes for the year. Eventually, the Bucks have to cover as underdogs (0-5 ATS this year). I think it happens Monday. Take the points. 8* Milwaukee |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | Top | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 45 points (tied a career playoff high), the Clippers forced a Game 7 with a 104-97 win (as three-point favorites) on Friday night. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info department, this is the first time in NBA Playoff history (excluding LY’s bubble - when there was no home court advantage) that the road team has captured the first six games of a series. The road team is 6-0 ATS as well. I just can’t see the streak reaching seven games though. I released a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER for Game 6 and they came through. Now look for the home team to finally win (and cover) a game. As I noted in my Game 6 analysis, LA has gone off as the favorite for every game in the series. The spread for Game 7 is roughly on par for what it was in Games 1, 2 and 5. While the Clippers lost all of those games, I still point to the fact they have outscored Dallas in the series - now by 21 points. Something that jumped out to me when analyzing Game 6 is that the Clippers have been the much better team on a per possession basis. Dallas has also seen its shooting decline dramatically the L3 games. They’ve been below 42% overall from the field each game w/ 3pt shooting really taking a tumble. The Clippers were the NBA’s #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season (41.1%) so it’s been surprising to see them down at 35% in this series. Still, I take it as a positive sign that they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting just 29.4% from behind the arc. They did take twice as many free throws compared to the Mavs and made 10 more. But Leonard was the key, not just offensively, but also at the defensive end when it came to stopping Luka Doncic. I think he’ll be the difference again Sunday. Lay the points as the home team is “due” to win (and cover) Game 7. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:05 ET): The Hawks turned a lot of heads when it took just five games to eliminate the Knicks. Trae Young was most definitely the best player on either team in that first round series and if Joel Embiid (questionable for Game 1) remains out for the 76ers, then Young is probably going to be the best player on the floor in this second round series as well. Regarding Embiid, though the Sixers did win the clincher vs. Washington, they are just 10-11 SU this season w/o the MVP Finalist. I don’t think many realize just how good this Atlanta team has been since Nate McMillan took over. They are 27-11 SU. That win percentage (.711) is the best in the Eastern Conference during that time. Philadelphia, who finished first in the East, won at a .703 clip in that same stretch. The Hawks were not a healthy team in the regular season as players combined to miss 278 regular season, fourth most in the league and most of all playoff teams. But now they are pretty healthy. DeAndre Hunter did an excellent job at stopping Knicks’ leading scorer Julius Randle. Atlanta held the Knicks to 39.9% overall shooting and 97.0 PPG. It won’t be that easy here, but Philly isn’t going to be shooting 51.1% in this series as they did vs. the defensively inept Wizards. If Embiid is out for any length of time, another potential issue for the 76ers is that their defensive efficiency rating jumps to 114.8 with the other four starters on the floor. Just to give you an idea of how big of a jump that is, a 114.8 defensive efficiency rating would rank dead last in the NBA. Philadelphia actually finished second overall in defensive efficiency. Now they have to concern themselves with Young, who is averaging 29.2 PPG in the playoffs and went over 30 in all three road games. Even if Embiid does play, he won’t be 100 percent. Atlanta is a hot team that is much better than most realize. This spread speaks volumes. 8* Atlanta |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Unlike the previous two postseasons, Milwaukee seems to be a bit underrated. They surprisingly made quick work of Miami in Round 1, sweeping the four game series and winning the L3 games by a combined 80 points. As I was looking ahead to the potential for a second round series with the Nets (which has obviously become a reality), my hope was that the Bucks wouldn’t be quite as dominant as I didn’t want them being viewed as a public side here. They’re still underdogs though and I think a case can be made that they were better than Brooklyn in the regular season. Take the points. Much will be made of the fact Milwaukee has had a full week off between series. Rest or rust? While I can’t fully answer that question now, I do think it was a GOOD thing that the Bucks had time to “come down” from the Heat series where they were looking to avenge LY’s Eastern Conference Finals. When it comes to the rest vs. rust debate, I don’t think there’s any real advantage or disadvantage here as Brooklyn has also had three days off. Both teams are 2-0 SU this season on 3+ days rest. The three regular season meetings between these teams were decided by a total of 11 points (none by more than six), so taking the points here seems like a reasonable option. Milwaukee posted the better regular season net efficiency rating and point differential. Obviously, Brooklyn is a different team now with all three of its stars (Durant, Irving, Harden) all in action. The Bucks had the higher defensive efficiency rating, which I view as key this time of year, and don’t be surprised when their three-point shooting improves from the previous round. Even with the home court advantage, I don’t think that the Nets should be favored by this many points. 8* Milwaukee |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The road team is 5-0 in this series, a trend the Clippers certainly hope continues Friday as they look to stay alive in the best of seven series with Dallas. They’re now down three games to two after dropping Game 5 105-100 as 7.5-point chalk. Los Angeles has been favored in all five games and has actually outscored Dallas, so it has to be terribly disappointing for them to be down in the series. I considered the Clippers to be the #2 overall team in the NBA coming into the playoffs, so it’s hard for me to see them bowing out of the playoffs so early. Lay the points here in Game 6. You’d have to go back more than a quarter century, to 1995, to find the last time the first five games of a playoff series all went to the road team. So history is not on the Clippers side. But this is a team that’s 23-15 SU away from home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas’ home struggles are nothing new. While their YTD record here at the American Airlines Center is 21-17 SU, they are actually 15-23 against the spread and have been outscored. The last game here in Dallas saw the Clippers win by 25. They won Game 3 by 10 points while shooting 57.9% from the field. The Mavs’ overall shooting has come down the last two games. They made only 34.8%, including 5 of 30 from three-point range, in Game 4. Then it was 41.6% in Game 5, only for them to get bailed out by an incredible individual from Luka Doncic. The Clippers played one bad quarter on Wednesday, that being the third when they went 8 of 21. This was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league during the regular season and they had a higher defensive efficiency rating than Dallas in the regular season. They are actually scoring the third most points per possession in the playoffs. They are 8-2 ATS L10 in Dallas and I still believe they are the better team. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers are both facing elimination and at home tonight, so I’ll lay the points in this “must-win” scenario. Game 5 of this series was an all-timer as it went to double overtime, but despite 55 points from Damian Lillard (made 12 threes!) the Blazers still lost the game 147-140. The “zig-zag theory” (simply take the ATS loser of the previous game) has been a fairly reliable 3-1 ATS so far in the series and you just get “the feeling” that these teams are destined for a Game 7. It’s impressive that Denver has the series lead here despite being without their two primary ballhandlers: Jamal Murray and Will Barton. Nikola Jokic is having himself quite the series, averaging 32.4 and 11.0 rebounds per game and he’s registered a double-double three times. But playing this game on the road, I don’t think the Nuggets can count on the kind of performances they got from Monte Morris (28 pts), Michael Porter Jr (26) and Austin Rivers (18) in Game 5. Going back to last season, Denver is 0-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Lillard’s teammates really let him down in the two overtime periods Monday as they shot a collective 1 for 19 from the floor. That’s atrocious. Similar to the regression I see happening with some of the Nuggets’ role players, I look for Portland’s (role players) to improve. Besides Lillard, the rest of the Blazers went 9 of 31 from three-point range in Game 5. This is a team that shoots 38.7% from behind the arc for the season. While a lot of that is Lillard, expect CJ McCollum to play a lot better here. 10* Portland |
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06-02-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The 76ers failed in their first attempt to eliminate Washington, losing Game 4 by a score of 122-114 (as 8.5-point favorites). Even worse, Joel Embiid left Monday’s loss with a sore knee. Long-term, that is something definitely worth monitoring. Short-term, I still expect the Sixers to end this series in five games, even if Embiid does not play Wednesday. The Wizards’ overall fitness is not exactly 100 percent and they are 0-7 SU in the City of Brotherly Love the L3 seasons. Lay the points. In addition to the Embiid injury, it was one bad quarter that doomed Philly’s prospects on Monday. After they took an 11-point lead in the 1Q, things tightened up by halftime. Then they were outscored 32-19 in the 3Q, which is when the game - and the franchise’s chance at its first series sweep in 36 years - got away from them. It was during the 3Q that Washington chose to employ a “Hack-a-Ben” strategy, as in Ben Simmons, whose inability to hit free throws really cost the team. Simmons is a hideous 5 of 20 from the charity stripe in this series. It will be interesting to see if the Wizards continue to elect to send him to the line in this game. If they do, Simmons must make them pay. Let’s not forget that Washington was last in the league in the regular season in points allowed per game. They’ve been even worse in this series, allowing the 76ers to score an average 122.7 points in the four games. Russell Westbrook has played the L2 games, but is banged up, and Davis Bertans is now out for the rest of the series. That’s no matter as the Wizards’ season is going to end tonight as Philadelphia is a strong 8-2 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season. Three-point shooting has been a massive problem for the Wiz in the L3 game, which is not a surprise as the Sixers were #2 in the league during the regular season in number of points allowed per possession. Vintage “zig zag theory” here. 8* Philadelphia |
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06-01-21 | Celtics v. Nets -12 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I went with the Nets in Game 4 and that turned out to be rather easy as they blew past the Celtics 141-126. It was the most points ever scored by the franchise in a playoff game as they torched Boston for 57.8% shooting, including 16 of 27 from three-point range. More importantly, the win puts Brooklyn on the cusp of advancing to the second round. It is certainly in their best interest to advance ASAP, given that Milwaukee swept Miami. I think it’s pretty clear that the Nets are the vastly superior team here and short of another 50-point game from Jayson Tatum, they should win big. Tatum did go for 40 in Game 4, but that wasn’t nearly enough as his teammates shot just 42.8% from the field. Tatum got nearly half his production from the foul line (17/17), which can’t be counted on when you’re on the road like Boston now is for Game 5. Making Tatum’s job even tougher here is that the Celtics are playing short-handed. Both Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III sat out Sunday and may be out again here. Even if one or both injured players were to suit up tonight, I don’t think it will matter much. Walker is shooting just 31.8% in the series. Williams averages only 6.3 points per game. Going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has won only three of its last 10 games. I did take them in Game 3 (winner!), figuring that would be their “best effort” of the series and it was. But they are clearly outclassed here as the Nets got 80+ points from Durant/Harden in Game 3, then 80+ from Durant/Irving in Game 4. Too many weapons. Brooklyn is averaging 123.5 PPG in the series and shooting 49.3% overall, 41.3% from three-point range and 92% from the FT. Boston is now 0-9 ATS in its L9 times when playing with just one day of rest. Look for this series to end tonight in blowout fashion. 8* Brooklyn |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets jumped out to a 19-4 lead on Friday and appeared well on their way to taking a 3-0 series lead. But Boston had the lead (33-32) by the end of the first quarter, something they would only briefly relinquish, and would end up winning 125-119 as seven-point underdogs. They were carried by Jayson Tatum’s 50 points. As someone who had the Celtics plus the points in Game 3, I loved it. But I also don’t think there’s any disputing who the stronger team is in this series. I’ll go with them (that being the Nets!) tonight in Game 4. Lay the points. Going into Game 3, Brooklyn was basically even money to sweep this series. So the odds are still strong that they’ll finish off the Celtics in five games instead of four. Boston simply shot the ball better in Game 3 (50.6%) than they did in either game at Brooklyn, led by Tatum’s incredible individual effort. If you were to take out the shooting of Kemba Walker and Romeo Langford, then the Celtics’ Game 3 shooting effort was downright insane. It’s something that won’t be repeated tonight in Game 4, even though they are still at home. Boston has not won B2B games in the month of May. Meanwhile, Brooklyn had won and covered seven straight before the Game 3 loss. An “off-night” was fairly predictable, which is why I took the Celtics in the last game, but so is the bounce back tonight. Outside of the “Big 3” (Durant, Harden, Irving), the rest of the Nets scored just 23 points on Friday. That number is going to go up here. The Nets were the NBA’s highest scoring team in the regular season and actually averaged more on the road than they did at home. This is the first time in the series with just one off day between games. Boston is 0-8 ATS its L8 games with just one day of rest. 10* Brooklyn |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Same strategy here as last night’s winners on Boston and the Clippers. We’re taking the team down 0-2 and this one seems real similar to the Celtics play as the Wizards are at home and being largely “written off” in this series with the top seeded 76ers. Right now, the big story is the “iffy” status of Washington PG Russell Westbrook, who rolled his ankle in Game 2 and is listed as questionable for Game 3. But if there was ever a time to take the Wiz it would be here as you’ve got to figure we’re getting their best effort with the season on the line. Even if Westbrook does not play, the Wizards still have Bradley Beal, who was the league’s second leading scorer in the regular season. Westbrook or no Westbrook, Washington will definitely shoot better from three-point range here compared to the last game when they went a dismal 2 of 22 from downtown. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such poor three-point shooting, especially from a team that averages 116.5 PPG. As you’d expect, the Wizards’ scoring average jumps here at home (to 119.6 PPG) and the role players should universally benefit from being back in familiar surroundings. Washington has won its last four home games and the last time they played here (play-in game vs. Indiana), they scored 142 points. Philadelphia won’t shoot 55.7% from the floor again as they did in Game 2. They’ve now scored 120 or more in four straight games, going back to the end of the regular season. But all four games were at home. Their scoring drops pretty dramatically on the road where they average just 109.8 PPG (as opposed to 117.7 at home). While the Sixers are 31-7 SU at home this season, they are only 20-16 SU on the road. Washington has covered five straight times off an ATS loss and Philly is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. 8* Washington |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): The biggest swing that we’ve seen so far in terms of series odds is from Clippers-Mavs. The Clippers, initially -400 to win this series, are now down 0-2 and listed at +220. That’ll happen when you lose twice at home. Only 6.3% of teams that have fallen behind 0-2 in a best of seven series have gone on to advance. That’s the situation the Clippers find themselves in now, but the deficit is far from insurmountable. After all, they’re actually favored to win Game 3 in Dallas where they are 6-2 ATS L8 visits. I’m laying the short number Friday in what is an obvious “must-win” situation. Now, as I’ve detailed many times before, “must win” does not necessarily mean “will win,” But you’ve got to think the Clippers will at least start to rectify this discrepancy we’ve seen behind the three-point line. In the first two games of the series, Dallas has made 50% of its 3PA (35 of 70). The Clippers are at 24 of 73 or 32.8%. This is awfully strange for LA, who led the league in three-point shooting percentage (41.4%) during the regular season. They scored 73 points in the first half of Game 2 … and still lost! That’s because Dallas shot 58.5% overall and made 18 threes. Not only do I expect the Clips’ three-point shooting to get better in Game 3, I expect the defense to improve as well. They were a top eight team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The good news is that after the last six times LA gave up 125+ points in a game, they came back and covered five times. They lost 127-121 in Game 2. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both doing their jobs; they just need their teammates to start stepping up. The All-Star duo has 118 combined points through two games. I just cannot see this Clippers team losing a fifth straight game outright as favorites. I had them #2 overall in my own personal power rankings, heading into the playoffs. 10* LA Clippers |
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05-28-21 | Nets v. Celtics +7.5 | Top | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:35 ET): It certainly FEELS as if everyone is writing off the Celtics at this point. In fact, the general consensus seems to be that they’re about to be swept by the Nets. But down 0-2 in the series and back at home, I anticipate their strongest effort coming in Game 3. Remember that they were ahead at the half, on the road, in Game 1. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact that Jaylen Brown is out for the season and Jayson Tatum had to leave the last game - a 130-108 loss - with an eye injury. But Tatum’s status was upgraded on Thursday and he will play. Meanwhile, the Nets are going to be without Jeff Green the rest of this series. Now obviously the Nets are relying heavily on their “Big 3” - Durant, Irving & Harden - who played a total of just nine games together in the regular season (202 total minutes). They haven’t had a problem so far in this series, particularly Game 2 when they shot much better than they did in Game 1. The team shot 52.3% and made 17 threes with the “Big 3” scoring a combined 61 points. But really the star of the game was Joe Harris, who made seven of those 17 threes himself and finished with a team-high 25 points. One thing’s for sure and that’s you shouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Harris, who had 16 points in the 1Q, helping the Nets get out to an early 14-point lead and 24-point lead by half. Boston has yet to defeat Brooklyn this season in five tries and four of those losses have been by double digits. But, again, if they were to win one it would likely be this game. Home teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series have been excellent bets through the years. In this instance, it looks like we’re getting some tremendous value as the Celtics closed +8 and +8.5 in the first two games and those were in Brooklyn. This will be the Nets’ first road game in 17 days. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS L28 as home underdogs. 8* Boston |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:05 ET): The Jazz shockingly went down in Game 1, 112-109 as eight-point favorites. But PG Donovan Mitchell is on track to play in Game 2 and I’m willing to bet that the #1 overall seed in the playoffs bounces back from an overall dreadful night of shooting. A team that usually makes 46.8% of its field goal attempts made only 42.0% in Game 1 and things were even uglier from three-point range where Utah shot only 25.5%. Again, this was a 52-win team in the regular season and Sunday was only the sixth loss at home all season. They are almost +13.0 PPG at home and only five times this year have they lost B2B games. Lay the points. I’m not sure Memphis can possibly expect things to go any better than they did in Game 1. At one point, they missed 14 consecutive shots yet still led at halftime. Utah went 12 of 47 from three-point range when they normally average 38.7%. The average number of threes per game that the Jazz hit is 17. Dillon Brooks had 31 points for the Grizzlies in Game 1, which is something I don’t see being repeated. Memphis has now won eight of nine, including three straight since the play-in round began. But those three wins were all by five points or less (total of 12 pts). Mitchell sitting out in Game 1 for the Jazz has been a big topic of conversation over the last 48 hours. His presence is key considering the team lost six of its last 16 regular season games without him. Mitchell largely outplayed Brooks in two head to head regular season meetings, scoring twice as many points while shooting a far higher percentage. The Jazz were +14 in FT makes in Game 1, but lost in large part due to taking 20 fewer FG attempts. Memphis had 16 offensive rebounds, an edge I don’t think they’ll have again in any game moving forward. The Grizzlies are just 2-7 ATS off their L9 ATS wins. 10* Utah |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers were still listed as the favorites to win the Western Conference coming into the playoffs (despite being a 7-seed!), but Phoenix was listed as the fave for Game 1 of this series and certainly looked like the better team Sunday afternoon. The Suns won 99-90, holding the Lakers to less than a point per possession, which is an impressive defensive effort. LA shot just 43.4% as a team, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. LeBron had just 18 points (only 13 FG attempts) while Anthony Davis shot 5 of 16 and had a +/- of -18. I think the Lakers bounce back in Game 2. The big story to monitor is Chris Paul’s shoulder. If the Phoenix PG is hampered by it, then the Suns are in trouble. Remember that the Lakers did lose Game 1 in Round 1 last year and then went on to win the next four over Portland, not to mention the NBA Championship. Getting back to the apparent Paul injury, he was clearly bothered by it late in Game 1. That’s probably why the Lakers are now favored to take Game 2. Well, that and the fact it seems unlikely they would fall down 0-2 in the series. Classic zig-zag play on the Lakers here. Oddsmakers are just trying to “scare bettors off” by making them the favorite. Let’s not forget how it’s the Lakers that ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I thought they did a pretty good job at that end of the floor in Game 1. They held the Suns 16 points below their season average. You’ve got to think the Lakers’ shooting will improve for Game 2. Meanwhile, the Paul injury could have a massive impact on the Suns offense. Obviously, you could say the same about James and the Lakers, but I’ve got more confidence in his ability to “play through it.” Look for him to go inside more often (took only four shots within 10 ft in Gm 1). 10* LA Lakers |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Despite shooting 50% for the entire game, leading at halftime and playing at home, the Nuggets still found a way to lose Game 1 to the Blazers - by 14 points. How could that be? Well, it basically boils down to two things: the third quarter and three-point shooting. With the former, they got outscored 38-25 in the third, which was basically the difference in the game. With the latter, they shot just 11 of 36 from 3-point range (30.6%) while Portland was 19 of 40 (47.5%). I don’t think we’ll be seeing a discrepancy like that again in Game 2 and am going full “zig zag theory” on this one. Lay the points. For those that are unfamiliar, the famed “zig zag theory” is as simple as it gets. You just take the ATS loser of the previous game. With Denver, they obviously cannot afford to drop both home games. This is a team that generally shoots much better from three-point range than they did in Game 1. They are now 0-4 ATS this season head to head with the Blazers, which seems odd seeing as how they have the better overall record. I think the majority of signs point to a Denver bounce back in this game and I’m honestly shocked the spread is not higher. Portland did a pretty decent job at defending Nikola Jokic in Game 1, which sounds odd as he went for 34 points. But he had only one assist, a career-low for the playoffs. I know the Nuggets are missing both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, but I’d remain leery of a Portland team that finished the regular season only ahead of Sacramento in terms of most points allowed on a per possession basis. Denver has been outstanding this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. They are also 11-2 ATS the L3 years when trailing in a playoff series. 10* Denver |