There are games early in the season you expect to be a true hard fought matchup. I expect that tonight between Santa Clara and Xavier. For Xavier they are learning on the fly under new Coach Richard Pitino and several transfers. While Santa Clara has maintained a program identity under Herb Sendek since 2016. That is the difference even with the long travel to Xavier as Santa Clara covers as road underdogs.

Both the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs began the season undefeated with 5-0 records. Each has now sustained losses, but the Spurs now have their missing piece in their lineup with De’Aaron Fox. The Bulls on the other hand have had severe scoring lapses in each of their last four games. Take the Spurs to cover and end the Bulls 5-0 home start.

Small school college hoops games are often times the most valuable this time of the year. Both Charleston Southern and Citadel were blown out in their lone matchups against division one schools. Today’s matchup looks like a road game for Charleston Southern, but both schools are in the city of Charleston. Look for the Buccaneers Big South style of scoring to give Citadel problems. Lay the number.

The Carolina Panthers have won four straight games with Bryce Young as quarterback. Last week was the big shocker winning as a double digit underdog on the road against Green Bay. Now they will face a Saints team that is 1-8 on the year, benched Spencer Rattler, and traded away Rasheed Shaheed. Still, look for Tyler Shough to play a bit better than his debut, and for the Panthers to have a back to reality game. Take the Saints.

The Chicago Bears had it as easy as they could last week offensively, against the worst defense in football in the Cincinnati Bengals. Now they have won five out of their last six games, boosting their spread value against a Giants team that is 0-5 on the road.  In the second half of last week’s loss Jaxson Dart showed some confidence and growth in the passing game down the field. Look for that to be an x-factor Sunday, as the Giants hang around against the Bears.

There’s no doubt the loss of Dylan Raiola is going to impact Nebraska the rest of Big Ten play. Yet, this week is a matchup they can win with proper execution and running the football with Emmett Johnson. Johnson already has 1,000 yards on the season, and the Bruins defense is coming off giving up a season high fifty six points to Indiana. Take Nebraska to get by in their first game without Raiola.

The Chicago Bulls were once 5-0, now have dropped two out of their last three games. One could argue if not for a horrific Philadelphia 76ers melt down they would be on a three game losing streak. Now the Bulls will be in their first back to back spot to start the season, against a Cavaliers that has scored season highs each of their last two games. Lay the number with Cleveland.

A team that has drastically faded has been Texas State. They were in many eyes a top level team for Sun Belt conference play. They even were in their matchup against Arizona State. Their blowout loss against James Madison showcased how poor they are defensively. UL Lafayette is certainly not their caliber skill wise, but team effort and discipline in the penalty department is the difference here. Take Lafayette plus the points. 

An unheralded matchup presents value in the American Conference. Tulsa is winless at 0-5 in league play, and has just one division one victory on the season. Still, the offense has shown improvement in the last two weeks scoring 27 and 37 points. Both were season highs against division one schools. Look for that improvement to continue to show on the road against Florida Atlantic. Could be another loss overall, but they get the cover ATS.

The Golden State Warriors lineup continues to be in limbo. On the road they are just 1-4 on the season, and will face a Denver team looking to make amends from melting away the first matchup against Golden State. That was a game the Warriors heavily relied on Steph Curry’s shot making to get to overtime. This is also the Warriors first game in altitude which will threaten the pace of play they are accustomed to. Lay the number with Denver.

Returning from a team’s first West Coast road trip can present its challenges. That likely will occur for the Miami Heat as they host the Charlotte Hornets, who are aiming to get revenge from a 144-117 loss to the Heat earlier this season. While I expect a better effort and a first half that goes the Hornets way, look for the Heat to adjust post halftime and get past the number.

Tonight is an opportune spot with the Sacramento Kings. Steph Curry has already been ruled out. And now the market has shifted with the news on the Kings ruling out players. Expect Steve Kerr to counter the same move with Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green in a game that will be in the hands of reserve players. The Warriors are just .500 over their last six games, and did not end yesterday’s game against the Suns strong. Lay the new number with Sacramento.

Any time a team jumps out to an unexpected undefeated start, it’s an immediate attack for me off their first loss. That’s the case with the Chicago Bulls who we saw get three of their four home victories outright as home underdogs. Philadelphia may lack strong defense but their offensive scoring abilities are going to be to much for the Bulls. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Philadelphia have a forty point quarter, and I expect this line to shift in the 76ers favor by tipoff. Take Philadelphia.

There are certain matchups from a season ago you have to toss out the window for assessment. That is the case with Valparaiso who blew out Eastern Illinois 81 to 53. Both teams were hit hard by the portal especially the Beacons who lost key players to Wake Forest, Cornell, and the big one All Wright to Xavier. Yet, Eastern Illinois their lack of ability to score in the half court is not the side you want to be on in the final ten minutes. Valparaiso gets the key baskets and free throws late to win this by nine to twelve points.

Small school matchups early in the season I believe bode to the road team. You tend to see more mistakes at home late in games as teams are going through closeout situations for the first time. Look for that to come into play tonight with Utah Tech against South Dakota. A Trailblazers team that will be hungry to get off on the right foot, after just seven wins a season ago. One of those seven victories came against South Dakota. Take Utah Tech.

It’s rare to see a team with a .500 record missing their superstar and still be steep road favorites. That is the case tonight as the Minnesota Timberwolves travel to face the winless Brooklyn Nets. The Timberwolves took a couple games minus Anthony Edwards to adjust, but seem to know their new roles. They also are familiar with Michael Porter Jr. from his Western Conference tenure with the Denver Nuggets. Expect hungry reserves off the bench to build on a lead with Bones Hyland, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Rob Dillingham. Lay the points with Minnesota.

Playing through injuries can only get you so far. The 49ers fell flat in last week’s loss against the Houston Texans, and now will travel on the road in consecutive weeks to face the Giants. As beat up as they are expect Kyle Shanahan to do his best to keep time of possession in his favor. Mac Jones is also undefeated in his career in MetLife stadium with a 3-0 record, and all wins by five points or more. Take the 49ers in what might be the sloppiest game of the day. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are beat up offensively with quarterback Joe Flacco, and have the worst defense in yards and points per game. A defense that allowed the winless Jets to mount a double digit comeback win last week. Still, this is a game they have to have similar to Baltimore a week ago against this Bears team. Chicago without De’Andre Swift is going to put more of a focus on Caleb Williams to make plays. Take the Bengals plus the points.

The New England Patriots are tied with the Denver Broncos for the best win streak in the NFL at five games. The win streak featured all covers ATS by the Patriots, which I believe has finally forced the oddsmakers to adjust aggressively on New England. Keep in mind New England had a rigorous three game road trip, before returning home last week. Sometimes it’s the second home game that a team has their slip up moments, which we have seen from New England against the Raiders and Steelers. Take the Falcons plus the points after two poor showings against the 49ers 

The Boston Celtics with their new lineup it’s a process every night to tinker and adjust. Playing in a back to back spot figures to be the toughest spot, as they run so many players in and out of the lineup. That should give the Rockets the upper hand with their big lineup to wear down the Celtics. Take Houston as they win their third straight game and cover the number.

It’s obvious that John Matter returned from injury at not one hundred percent. Over the Sooners last three games they have lost to Texas and Ole Miss, but it’s also allowed Matter to play and work through the injury. Expect a sharper performance from him tonight and for Tennessee to need to adjust from their typical octane offense that averages forty six points per game. Close game with the Sooners sneaking within the number.

The Milwaukee Bucks defensively have shined in wins against the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors. A lack of focus could be in play today in a letdown spot as the opponent in the Kings is not the same caliber. Sacramento is just 1-4, but they have enough veteran skill players to get the upper hand in the scoring department. Grab the points here with the Kings. 

The Florida Gators began the season as a ranked team, that quickly faded and led to the firing of Billy Napier. Billy Gonzales will now step in and look to get the Gators bowl eligible with five gams left. Even though Georgia is 6-1, they have shown vulnerability with several close wins. Take the Gators be the latest to hang around against the Bulldogs, and stay within the touchdown spread.

Transitioning to division one football is tough for any program. For Delaware they hit a wall after their bye week, lost a tough game against Western Kentucky and then were blown out by Jacksonville State. This is a spot I expect to be a very tight game against Liberty, where at the worst we push on the three points. Competitive close game here grab the underdog.

We see it all the time when a team survives to remain undefeated like UNLV, all it takes is that one loss to shift the tide entirely. UNLV was fortunate early in the season against Idaho State, Air Force, UCLA, and Miami Ohio to survive close victories. After last week’s blowout loss against Boise State look for the shift to occur, against a New Mexico team that makes opportune plays. Take the points here with the Lobos.

The Phoenix Suns have had two close calls shift their early season start to a 1-4 record. While they have been short handed minus Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green they have fought. They had a narrow loss to Memphis their last game, and took tonight’s opponent in the Utah Jazz to overtime. Expect the Suns to show better effort in the rebounding department, and lean on Mark Williams more. Devin Booker also should be in for another big game as he torched the Jazz in the first matchup. Lay the points with the Suns. 

The LA Lakers got big news today with the return of Luka Doncic, who has missed the last three games. In his first two games he scored over 40 points, but also took an average of twenty five shots. Additionally, we also have an example of Reaves carrying the Lakers as the number one option with 45 points against the Pacers last season. When Doncic entered the lineup the Lakers dropped two games to the Jazz and Charlotte Hornets. Take the home team here with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Two teams that have lost four straight games meet tonight in the ACC as Syracuse hosts North Carolina. North Carolina nearly pulled off two upsets in a row as a double digit underdog, but lost narrowly to California and Virginia. The offense just has not been enough with Gio Lopez under center as he has thrown for just two touchdowns and four interceptions against division one schools. Take the Orange here on the short number.

The Atlanta Hawks at 1-3 personify why you can’t over react to early season basketball. Expectations can still be achieved as they work through their new personnel and lineups. Tonight is a golden opportunity to get back on track against a Brooklyn Nets team that is shot heavy with Michael Porter Jr and Cam Thomas. Expect the second unit of the Hawks to build upon any lead the first unit has. Roll with the Hawks.

The first road trip for any team can be difficult. For the Knicks they learned that in their first loss at Miami. Expect their offense to regroup at Milwaukee after two lower scoring performances against Boston and Miami. Take the Knicks to likely trail at half but make the adjustments to comeback and pull off the win against the Bucks. 

I’m going to add one more play in the NBA which I feel is a great mini slate tonight. The OKC Thunder are undermanned without Holmgren and Jalen Williams but will face a Sacramento Kings team that is coming off a demoralizing loss against the Lakers. Expect the dysfunction to only continue to rise for the Kings. The Thunder with their advanced depth will be able to play through being in a back to back spot. Lay the number as OKC returns from their road trip with a win and cover ATS. 

The Charlotte Hornets early in the season are attracting a new market from an ATS stand point. Even without Brandon Miller they are scoring at a high rate, and arguably should be 3-0 on the season. In their only loss they blew a double digit lead against the 76ers. I see a tighter game then the spread suggests against a Heat team coming off a statement win against the Knicks. Take the points with Charlotte. 

It’s inevitable after such a strong performance for a let down spot. Yesterday the 76ers led essentially start to finish against the Orlando Magic, and won outright as a 6.5 point underdog. Undefeated they will now take on the lowly Wizards, who have already had two double digit losses, and rank as one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Yet, look for the Wizards to take advantage of a 76ers team that is in a back to back spot. Take the Wizards. 

The Phoenix Suns arguably should be 0-3 on the season. Each game this season they have trailed by steep deficits of 17 or more. In their first matchup they were able to come back against the Kings, and since have lost consecutive games by 27 and 22 points. Those were clear mismatches against the Clippers and Denver. Expect the Suns to be focused in an opportune spot against the Utah Jazz. Take the Suns on the line swing.

Prime time has been very tricky this season, but I look for the Packers to get the road win against Pittsburgh. With Mike Tomlin’s Steelers we’ve seen the hot starts but also the wall that causes an extreme reverse in losses. Green Bay has had a heavy road schedule as this will be their fourth road game over their last five, but what they have been able to do is win. Low enough spread here that I’ll buy on the Packers side.

Sunday we have a matchup of prime time eyes just last week. Houston laid an egg in Monday Night football, while San Francisco shined creating a prime time inflation spot on the 49ers. Some teams struggle post bye week and that was the case for the Houston Texans. The offense assuredly may continue to struggle without key weapons at wide receiver including Nico Collins. Yet, I believe the Texans defense rises to the occasion winning the turnover battle and making things difficult for the 49ers. Take the Texans.

The Buffalo Bills have killed backers ATS this season, and even with that their number remains high on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Expect Josh Allen to settle back in off the bye week and also for the defense to perform better after getting gashed by the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. Andy Dalton has shown to be serviceable backup but now has to step in and play with pressure as the Panthers have won three straight. Take the value on the Bills.

The MAC has been a conference I’ve stayed clear of thus far this season. Today though I believe there is an opportunity in a battle of undefeated conference MAC teams, as Western Michigan takes on Miami Ohio. Seventh year senior DeQuan Finn has done his most damage in conference with his legs, but we’ve also seen his rushing yards come down each of the last three weeks. Look for Western Michigan to force Finn more into a pocket passer where he has struggled with touchdowns to interceptions. Take Western Michigan.

The LA Clippers had the flattest performance in game one against the Utah Jazz. That loss I believe continues to trickle over against a Phoenix Suns team that showed a lot of fight in their opener against the Kings. They came from behind on a 17 point halftime deficit. They’ll also be a motivated group seeing ex-Suns players in Chris Paul and Bradley Beal. Grab the points here with the Suns.

It’s always tough beginning an NBA season with two road games. That’s the case for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but tonight also brings forth familiarity with an NBA schedule. A year ago this Timberwolves team opened the season at the Lakers and lost by seven points. Look for that to be fresh on the Timberwolves minds, as they attack a one dimensional Lakers team of Luka and Austin Reaves. Take the Timberwolves.

The Virginia Tech Hokies have a lost season, but have an opportunity to take a game to game approach to close out the year. California we’ve seen have the upper hand with teams venturing their way, but it’s been an issue for them to travel East. They got down 14-0 against Boston College, and I think we see another big early deficit from the Bears. Take the Hokies to get the cover

Too much hype surrounding a team is inevitable with prior success. The Dallas Mavericks went to the NBA Finals just two seasons ago, and somehow landed the top pick in the NBA Draft with Cooper Flagg. The veterans surrounding Flagg have won NBA titles in Klay Thompson and Anthony Davis, but in game one tonight I see the value with the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio went undefeated in pre-season with a 5-0 record, and played competitively in both March meetings against Dallas, including a ten point victory. Grab the Spurs plus the points.

The NBA gave us a taste on opening night yesterday with a double-header, and now we have a full slate Wednesday. The Bulls were a trending upward team in the second half of last season thanks to the emergence of Josh Giddey. They have added a defensive presence with Isaac Okoro, but the Pistons are a matchup they struggled with a season ago. They lost each of the last three games by eight points or more, where Detroit scored an average of 129 points. Take the Pistons.

A year ago the Green Bay Packers blew out the Arizona Cardinals as a short three point favorite at home. Now they are more then double the favorite on the road, after failing to cover their last two games against Cincinnati and Dallas. Expect the Packers to overwhelm a Cardinals team that has been fighting but losing as of late. Packers roll in this afternoon game in Glendale, Arizona. 

The Miami Dolphins have shown fight since Darren Waller got his first action in week four against the New York Jets. Miami had leads late before losing by three points to Carolina, and two points to the Chargers. Sunday could be the complete bottom spot for Miami against a Browns team that is now settled in after playing in Europe two weeks ago. Tail the home favorite here in Cleveland.

The Philadelphia Eagles just two weeks ago had a 20-1 streak going. Now they head into their road game against the Vikings having lost consecutive games. It’s a similar down turn we saw at the tail end of the 2023 season when the Eagles went 1 and 7 over their final eight games. Look for the Eagles to get in their own way, as the Vikings do just enough to get the home cover.

Bad teams can turn the corner in-conference. Last week Colorado State had an impressive showing defeating Fresno State 49-21. Now they are favored Saturday with a chance to win consecutive games for the first time this year. Look for their new found confidence to slow down a Hawaii offense that has peaked with consecutive games of forty four points. Tail the Rams.

Nebraska did not play their best game last Saturday in a road win against Maryland. It was their first true road game of the season, but the Cornhuskers prevailed thanks to a late touchdown. Expect a much more fluid game for the Cornhuskers and quarterback Dylan Raiola who threw three interceptions against the Terrapins. Lay the touchdown here with Nebraska.

From a coaching and player stand point there is not a team in the NFL that has to answer with an urgent performance Sunday more than the Raiders. They have been torched defensively over the last three weeks giving up an average of 35 points, and Geno Smith has thrown nine interceptions. It’s the right opponent in the Tennessee Titans who are coming off a fortunate win over the Cardinals. Lay the number with the Raiders.

It’s always tricky when a team is on the road in the east coast time zone in consecutive weeks. Yet, this Dallas Cowboys team was sparked by an embarrassing road loss against the Chicago Bears. Carolina may be 2-0 at home as an underdog, but defied the odds last week against Miami with a 200 yard game from Rico Dowdle. They also converted two improbable fourth downs. Take the Cowboys as Bruce Young has shown throughout his young career to not be trustworthy in consecutive weeks.

A year ago the Arizona Wildcats were the laughing stock of the Big 12. One of their most embarrassing losses came at the hands of BYU in a 41-19 loss. Fifita threw a collegiate high three interceptions, and the season for Arizona fell apart after that. Look for Fifita and the Wildcats to showcase their improvements against a BYU team that has yet to see their freshmen quarterback put in a tough spot. Tail the Wildcats.

A game that will have a low attention in the betting markets is Louisiana Monroe against Coastal Carolina. Both starting quarterbacks in Tad Hudson and Aidan Armenta are ranked in the bottom twelve in the entire country for average passing yards per game. That means capitalizing on turnovers will be the main factor in a team victory. That’s an area Coastal Carolina has been dreadful, as they rank the third worst team in college football in turnover margin. Expect the outlier plays to benefit the road team in Louisiana Monroe.

Alabama has regained the focus of the betting market with a couple of big wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. The defense limited both teams to a combined seven points in the second half. Yet, a road element and early start time I believe has Alabama chasing from behind against this potent Missouri team. The Tigers are also in a revenge spot after losing 34-0 last season against Alabama. Grab the points here with Missouri. 

I’m going to grab South Florida tonight against North Texas. I truly believe if North Texas did not have the bye week advantage that South Florida would be favored. The Mean Green are led by freshmen in quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. Mestemaker has not thrown an interception on the season, and Hawkins is seventh in college football averaging over seven yards a carry. Expect the freshmen growing pains to show tonight as North Texas has already had a couple of close calls needing to win in overtime against Western Michigan and Army. Take South Florida. 

The LA Chargers fell from the undefeated ranks last week, but it was in the making. They were very flat in the second half of their Monday night win over the Raiders, and were outplayed by Denver even though they got the win. Look for the Washington Commanders with Jayden Daniels back to have enough to offset their injuries. Take Washington.

The Miami Dolphins picked up an important win on Monday against a winless New York Jets team. They utilized having the extra rest advantage over New York. Now they have to travel on the road and face a Carolina team eager to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last week against the Patriots. Take Carolina where the Panthers only home game this year was a shutout 30-0 win.

Spencer Rattler has yet to get a win in his career as he is 0-10. Yet, he has had the Saints in position in several games this year, and now New Orleans returns home after a two game road trip. Over the Saints last ten games their only win was against the Giants. An x-factor is new Coach Kellen Moore as he is 6-0 in his last six games against the Giants as a play caller with the Eagles and Cowboys. Take the Saints.

Rice on the season does have two more wins than their opponent Florida Atlantic. Yet their two wins against division one schools they have struggled to score. Look for Western Kentucky transfer Caden Veltkamp to finally settle in and avoid the turnovers that have plagued him with seven interceptions on the season. Take Florida Atlantic as the small underdog. 

UNLV and Wyoming are both coming off a bye week in what is the conference opener in the Mountain West for both. UNLV on the season is undefeated but nothing has come easy as they barely beat both Idaho State and had to come from behind against Miami Ohio. Wyoming has also been a tricky place for the Rebels who have lost five straight matchups there, and last victory was 2003. Look for that to end tonight, as the Rebels offense solidifies an ATS cover.

A big rest advantage could be a factor at some point tonight as Delaware hosts Western Kentucky. The Blue Hens are in their first year in Conference USA and their last matchup was thirteen days ago against Florida International. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky played just six days ago in what was a hard fought win against Missouri State. The Hilltoppers also were one of the few teams that played in week zero, with tonight marking their sixth game of the season. Lay the short number here with Delaware.

Sometimes a bad loss can spark a team. Green Bay got content late up 10 to 0 on the Cleveland Browns, and had a poor game offensively in all phases. Josh Jacobs did not establish the ground game, the offensive line allowed five sacks, and Jordan Love threw a costly late interception. With all of that they have a dominant history against Dallas, and have won five straight games overall in Dallas. Take the Packers as they surge past the Cowboys.

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting healthier with the return of Xavier Worthy, but the lack of a ground game is still there. Baltimore ran into a Detroit team playing peak football on Monday night, look for the Ravens to use that as fuel to clean up issues on both sides of the football. It’s also a value angle seeing the Chiefs for the second time this season as a home underdog. Grab the Ravens.

The New York Giants are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night football, and will now turn to Jaxson Dart at quarterback. The Giants had six players upgraded from questionable giving the offense a boost, and the Chargers are one of the more road heavy teams to begin the year. They played in Brazil, Vegas, and now make the cross country flight to New York. Grab the big points here with the Giants.

The New England Patriots had one of the worst self destruction games a team can have last week against the Steelers. They turned the football over five times, and did not get the necessary stop defensively with the game tied at 14. Carolina for a second straight week has covered the spread, but in a non divisional game I expect more of what we saw for a full game against Jacksonville and three quarters against the Cardinals. Lay the number with New England.

The Oregon Ducks have shown time and time again as a trustworthy team ATS. in the regular season. The big question is will that merit hold with an inexperienced quarterback in Dante Moore on the road at Penn State. As a team I believe they overcome any issues he has early on. Additionally, Penn State coming off a bye week may be the factor that keeps the Ducks in the game early on, as the offense stumbles. Take the Ducks in what may be a close loss but cover for Oregon.

San Jose State twice on the year have failed in the betting markets as double digit favorites, losing outright to Central Michigan and barely beating Idaho last week by a field goal. Heading on the road to face Stanford is a spot I believe senior quarterback Walker Eget can shake off a poor start to the season and get some confidence. They’ll need the scoring to keep pace with their troublesome defense. Take the small dog here with the Spartans.

Conference USA has been a conference we have seen accept new division one teams. Missouri State is the latest and has been reputable ATS where they had a 10-0 lead on SMU, and have a win over Marshall. Western Kentucky to me is a team that has performed sluggish over the last couple of games but managed to overcome that and cover a big number last week against Nevada. Expect a crisper performance today for the Hilltoppers as they cover the number.

One thing about a bad loss is you expect a team to come out with high energy early on. Auburn I’m expecting to have the early lead against Texas A&M, and maybe even the lead at halftime. To keep up with Texas A&M for four quarters is where I have my concerns. Take the Aggies as the Tigers lose once again close to the number late.

For Arizona State it’s always a sweat in their games under Kenny Dillingham. We saw them get by in countless games last season to reach the college football playoffs, and already this season they have had two close games against Mississippi State and Baylor. TCU has slid into the top twenty five thanks to their hot start, but look for the physicality of Arizona State to present its challenges. Also, rain in the early afternoon in Tempe will make it an abnormal humid evening with temperatures in the high 80s. Take Arizona State to pull off another close win.

One of the toughest elements for a team is starting the year on the road consecutive games. The 49ers had to do so, and despite covering the number as favorites find themselves as slim home favorites Sunday. Arizona swept the series last year, and can play the same clock management game that Kyle Shanahan is well known for. This comes down to the wire, but grab the Cardinals to execute in the end.

The New Orlean Saints have lived right on the number in their first two games against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. That captures the betting market, and is an opportune spot for me as the big let down occurs. Spencer Rattler still is winless in his career with an 0-8 mark, and Seattle has the tools on both sides of the football to make this a pull away game in the second half. Take the Seahawks.

The Denver Broncos were a non penalty away from securing a tough win at Indianapolis. Instead they went to 1-1, but expect that loss to drive the team to prove themselves early against the LA Chargers. Bo Nix and Sean Payton found their offensive rhythm, and you also have the ex-factor of JK Dobbins facing his old team. Take the Broncos plus the points.

Teams having back to back road games early in the season can devalue them ATS. For the Rams they have that on a small number, against an Eagles team that has won eleven straight home games. The revenge angle is also in play after the Rams cost themselves a trip to the NFC Championship game with two fourth quarter fumbles, and failed on their final drive that got all the way to the Eagles thirteen. Take the Rams in what is the fourth meeting over the last three years. 

Hawaii will get their freshmen quarterback back tonight with Alejandro. That can be an advantage as their is only the game film out from the Stanford matchup with him. Meanwhile Fresno State’s senior quarterback EJ Warner has not thrown a touchdown pass against a division one opponent, and has struggled with turnovers as well. Take Hawaii to continue their magic at home as the underdog. 

Last season the big knock on Indiana was their soft schedule, as they did not face a ranked opponent until late in the season on the road against Ohio State. Look for the Hoosiers to be ready to show the country, they can handle a ranked team early in the season as they take on Illinois. The Hoosiers have never lost at home under Coach Curt Cignetti, and have won eleven straight games at Memorial Stadium. Lay the number with the Hoosiers.

A game that is likely to draw little attention is Marshall against Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee very well should be an 0-3 team, but pulled out a late miracle in last week’s win against Nevada. I believe that has minimized what this spread would of been on Marshall’s side, who lost a majority of their team to Southern Miss. The fourth game in look for the traction to gain against a Middle Tennessee team that lacks explosive plays. Take Marshall.

The Utah Utes have to answer the call in Saturday’s matchup against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have the top offense in all of college football, but have not faced a true test. Coach Kyle Whittingham and the Utes must avoid another early season let down as they have the last two years losing to Arizona and Oregon State early in the season. Take the Utes to get their first Big 12 home win in program history and cover the number.

With Iowa we always know it’s not going to pretty. Their brand of football is not going to change and we saw this in keeping the game manageable and low scoring against Iowa State. As great as Rutgers explosive offense has been, conference play is a different level of evaluation. Rutgers also was shutout the last time these two met in 2023. Take Iowa on the spread. 

Small home favorites off a poor week one I’m willing to buy. For the Houston Texans they are once again dealing with key injuries offensively, with Joe Mixon out at running back. CJ Stroud needs to find his confidence and do so quickly though the air. Look for the small wins as the Texans play solid defense, win special teams, and the big key is have the advantage in the turnover battle. Take the Texans on the spread.

The Chicago Bears collapsed in a prime time spot on Monday, and now have to show resolve in a six day turn around against the Lions. Close game losses typically resulted in blowouts last season for the Bears in the following game. Look for the culture change under Ben Johnson to have an impact at least in terms of the spread. Chicago has had short term success against the Lions as well, in three out of the last four matchups they have either won or lost by five points or fewer. Grab the points here.

Sometimes the betting market is a week early on a team. Last week Duke faltered in a tough spot against the ranked Illini. Now travel on the road to play their quarterback’s old team in Tulane. Expect Darian Mensah’s teammates to raise their game for their quarterback, and bounce back in a big way over Tulane. Take the underdog in Duke.

Travel destinations are becoming less and less of an impact for spread evaluation as conference play begins for some. Out in the Mountain West Nevada gets to face a team traveling on a lengthy road trip in Middle Tennessee. As I said in last week’s write up with Washington State gaining a slim victory over Idaho, there is value to be had on team’s that get by against a non division one school. Expect Nevada to play a more fluid game after defeating Sacramento State by just three points. Lay the spread in a rare high number spot for a Wolf Pack team that is 6 and 31 over their last thirty seven games.

The Colorado Buffaloes made a surprise move at quarterback by moving to Ryan Staubb. I do like the move, but Staubb is in a tough spot on a short week traveling on the road in a confernece game against Houston. The Cougars have taken steps forward under Coach Willie Fritz, and now are in an unusual spot favored against Colorado. Non typical of what we have seen in the past, that presents value on the number. An issue under Deion Sanders teams has been mismanaging games in the fourth. Look for that to be the difference ATS. Take Houston.

Sometimes a key number is all it takes to get a cover in the NFL. Jacksonville was a team last year that wins and losses were so close. Nine of their losses were by five points or less. Carolina has a young roster that showed flashes of success last season. I’m expecting a tight game where we possibly see a walk off field goal for the win. Grab the points here with Carolina.

We have seen two divisional underdogs start the season off with covers. Washington as sizeable favorites will see a different level New York Giants team. Still, I anticipate the Commanders playing at the Giants level for the first half, before making the key plays to get past the number. The NFL is always outlier plays, and we saw this last year with Malik Nabers dropping a key fourth down ball, and an abundance of costly plays. Take the Commanders on the spread.

A narrative to go against in college football off of week one, is a team that struggled against a non division one school. We have that scenario with Washington State that struggled to get past Idaho last week. The old saying a win is a win helps us get a reduced number this week against San Diego State. Take the Cougars who get the right opponent to start the year off 2-0 on the season.

UCLA showed nothing on defense or offense in week one against Utah to make them a road favorite against UNLV. Nico Iamaleava probably has the most pressure of any quarterback in week two to respond. Expect UNLV’s potent offense to put Iamaleava in situations he did not have to be in at Tennessee. Close game but the Rebels prevail to go 3-0 on the year. 

There are games that serve as an eye opener and catapult a team in the spotlight. For Oklahoma this is their chance against a Michigan team, that is ahead of where I anticipated in their first game against New Mexico. Yet, this is a different caliber opponent in Oklahoma which I believe can manage this game from a trailing game script or by putting the pressure on the Wolverines with early scoring. Take Oklahoma who will win this decisively by ten or more points.

Virginia had one of the more impressive victories last week by routing Coastal Carolina 48 to 7. The blowout featured the defense shutting down former ACC and Big Ten quarterback MJ Morris. Offensively Chandler Morris showed how valuable he is as a sixth year senior at quarterback. Still, NC State has the advantage of having last week off and I expect their to be cleaner execution in both halves than what we saw against East Carolina. Take NC State on the small number.

The LA Chargers were in both games last season against the Kansas City Chiefs. They lost after having a 10-0 Sunday night prime time lead, and also had another close loss late in the season. The Chiefs dynasty is far from over, but winning at the rate they did last season is not sustainable. Look for the Chargers to do what Dallas did against Philadelphia, and hang around a divisional opener to begin the season. Take LA plus the points. 

Moving on from an era of consistent injuries at quarterback has happened with the Utah Utes. Devon Dampier was one of the more electric quarterbacks last season at New Mexico, and now goes into a system where he has a big upgrade in talent around him. UCLA was one of the slowest offenses out the gate last season, where they scored sixteen points or less in their first five games. Look for a shaky debut from Nico Iamaleava as Utah gets by with a win of six point or more.

One of the teams that is expected to take a leap this season are the Washington Huskies. We saw some of the flashes last season with quarterback Desmond Williams Jr., and they still have senior tailback Jonah Coleman. Colorado State has lost three straight openers by twenty six points or more. Tail the Huskies to make it four seasons in a row.

One of the teams that dealt with a bevy of transfers was California. Late exits in the portal could hurt California later in the season, as depth becomes an issue. Early on though look for the Bears to be prepared against former Pac-12 rival Oregon State. True freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele gets the upper hand over veteran transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy. Take California.

Yesterday we saw Tarleton State pull off a big upset as two touchdown underdogs against Army. Abiline Christian as a smaller underdog will hope to do so today against Tulsa. Gone for the Wildcats are former quarterback Maverick McIvor who nearly pulled off a week one upset a season ago against Texas Tech. Yet, still look for Abiline Christian to move the football, as Tulsa was one of the worst defenses last season. Over their last four games they gave up an average of fifty six points per game. 

Opening up on the road in a hostile environment can be tough to evaluate ATS. Georgia Tech likely will need to overcome a couple of drives of failure, and possibly a full quarter to adjust in their first game at Colorado. Kaidon Salter did have a second half of the season dip last year at Liberty, with four touchdowns to four interceptions over his final five games. That inconsistency I expect to flip this game in the second half. Take the Yellow Jackets.

A spread that is trickling down before kickoff is Charlotte vs Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have the name notoriety after years of being a staple in the Sun Belt. This is a transition year as they lost former quarterback Joey Aguilar to the portal and Tennessee. The first game for a new coach is so important, expect the 49ers to match the energy of Appalachian State and at least push the spread.

Sometimes early in the season especially in college football, you are playing numbers as you await the eye test on teams. That’s what I am doing with Wyoming as this spread has dropped a full 1.5 from 7. Ben Finley did some positive things to end the year for Akron but look for Wyoming’s ground game and execution to be the edge in this one. Tail Wyoming. 

College football is just a few weeks away, and a game that is starting to see line movement is Sam Houston and Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers won at Sam Houston last season by double digits, 31-14 as a 1.5 point underdog. Now they will work in one of the oldest starting quarterbacks in all of college football in 25 year old Matthew McIvor, who also has his old offensive coordinator from Abiline Christian. Look for the Bearkats to stay in this one as they did last season, but do a better job post halftime with adjustments. Key number to get at ten in case of a push, but ultimately believe this is a one score game.

There aren’t many games in the NBA playoffs where the spread is actually a factor. Tonight though I believe we see that be the case, with the spread a bit to high on the Knicks side. These two teams know each other very well from the regular season series, and playing a seven game series last postseason. Take Indiana who has covered seven out of ten playoff games, to cover a generous spread.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been stout since March 2nd, with a 25-6 record. Additionally, they have split each of the last two regular season series against the Thunder. While they may have the rest advantage, Oklahoma City had a level of focus to close out their series against Denver that I see carrying over. They also have been home a full five days since their Thursday game six at Denver. Look for Minnesota’s one weakness in the postseason to be on display as they lost game one against Golden State, and game two against the Lakers. Play the Thunder.