Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears. |
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01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here. |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228 Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just squared off the other day in Milwaukee and produced 213 total points and stayed Under the number of 221.5. They had plenty of possessions though as the Wizards attempted 94 field goals, the Bucks hoisted 96. Milwaukee shot just 35% from the field overall and 27% from Deep which are both well below season averages of 45.6% and 34.2%. Washington scored 118-points without Bradley Beal (23.5PPG) who may be back in the lineup tonight. The Bucks were missing their two leading scorers as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday were both out. Giannis and his 32PPG is expected back tonight along with Holiday’s 19PPG. Washington is averaging 121PPG in their last five contests and the Bucks defense is giving up that same amount in their last five games. Both of these teams will get to 115 or more points here. Bet Over |
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01-03-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132 Points – Nebraska vs Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this match up. Both rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency and both allow their opponents to make only 40% from the field on the season. Both also prefer a slower paced game with MSU ranking 300th in adjusted tempo and Nebraska 281st. MSU has not allowed more than 70 points since late November, a span of 6 straight games. The Husker defense has really improved this season holding a number of high scoring offenses in check including stopping Iowa in their tracks in their most recent game limiting the Hawkeyes to just 50 points (Iowa averages 81 PPG). Nebraska also held Purdue to 56 points in regulation (Boilers average 77 PPG) and Creighton to 53 points (Blue Jays average 77 PPG) just to name a few. Offensively neither of these teams is a great shooting team. Both rank outside the top 180 in FG% and outside the top 200 in points per game. Since we hit December, Nebraska has scored 65, 65, 56 (in regulation), 56, 75 (vs Queens College), and 66 points. Since November 30th the Spartans have topped 68 points only one time (6 games) and that was vs a Buffalo who is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with a defense thar ranks 218th in efficiency. 5 of MSU’s last 6 games have totaled 133 points or less and 4 of Nebraska’s last 6 haven’t even reached 130 total points. Under here. |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game. |
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01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team. |
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12-31-22 | Heat v. Jazz UNDER 226 | Top | 126-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - We were on the Under in the Heat/Nuggets last night which unfortunately lost but we had the pace of play we needed to win that bet but couldn’t predict an insanely hot shooting night by the Nuggets. Denver shot 61% from Deep and 59% overall. Miami too outperformed season shooting expectations by making 40% of their 3-point attempts (34% on the year). Both teams are coming off games last night as the Jazz just totaled 251 total points with the Kings in Sacramento (both teams shot over 55% from the field, well above season averages). The Jazz have played three straight games against three of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they get a Miami team that is the 5th slowest. Those three teams the Jazz faced are also bad defensively, whereas the Heat rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.11-points per possession. Miami has faced three teams that have similar metrics to the Jazz in the Lakers, Wolves and Pacers and those three games finished with 210, 223 and 219 total points. When playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back the Jazz average less points than their season average. With both teams coming off games last night, our computers suggest a slower paced game here and an ‘average’ shooting night for both. |
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12-31-22 | Florida International v. North Texas UNDER 127.5 | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – FIU vs North Texas, Saturday at 4 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation (363 in adjusted tempo) and one of the better defensive teams in the country (25th in defensive efficiency). This team has not allowed any of their 13 opponents to reach 60 points. Now they are facing an FIU team who isn’t very efficient offensively (296th in adjusted efficiency) and really struggles to shoot it from deep making only 28.9% from beyond the arc (335th nationally). FIU has had some higher scoring games but they prefer to play fast and most of those games have come vs other high tempo teams. UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do in every game and the slow paced team almost always wins out as far as tempo goes. Against other high tempo teams (rank in the top 50 in adjusted tempo) the Mean Green have kept it low scoring. Versus UMass (ranked 38th in adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 106 and vs Long Beach St (13th adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 115. On the other end while UNT is great defensively, not so much on offense. They rank outside the top 295 on eFG%, 3 point % and 2 point %. The Mean Green are averaging only 60 PPG on the season. UNT is coming off a loss vs Florida Atlantic in which they totaled only 96 points. FAU is averaging 77 PPG (51st nationally) and UNT held them to 50 points, by far their lowest mark of the season. North Texas will make this a grinder as they always do and this one stays Under. |
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12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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12-30-22 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 224.5 Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Heat are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.3 possessions per game. The Nuggets are the 13th slowest at 98.7 possessions per game. That means there is a high probability of a very low possession game here and a slower pace. Denver is very efficient offensively ranking 3rd best in the league. Miami is not as they are the 3rd least efficient offense in the NBA. Defensively the Heat hld the advantage with the 7th best defensive efficiency rating while the Nuggets rank 25th. Denver has been much better defensively in their last 5 games though with the 6th best efficiency number allowed at 1.116-points per possession. The Heat are on a 6-2 Under streak, Denver has played Under in 6 of their last nine games. We expect those trends to continue for both teams here. |
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12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening. |
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12-29-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 225.5 | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - We love the value in this number as these same two teams just met last week and the O/U posted by Vegas was 219.5. They combined for 218 total points on 161 field goal attempts. An average NBA game finishes with 227 total points scored on 176 field goal attempts. Neither are great shooting teams as the Mavs rank 18th in overall FG%, while the Rockets are 29th. These two teams also prefer to play slower as the Rockets rank 17th in pace of play at 99.1 possessions per game. The Mavericks are slower yet ranking as the second slowest team in the league ahead of only the Cavaliers. In the other meeting this season between these two teams they combined for 193 points on this court. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times these two teams have met, including 4 straight. Based on our calculations this game will finish with 219 total points. |
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12-28-22 | Boise State v. Nevada UNDER 131 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
#651/652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Boise State vs Nevada, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Two top notch defensive teams facing off here and we anticipate a low scoring game. Boise ranks 11th nationally allowing just 58 PPG while Nevada ranks 70th giving up just 63 PPG. Boise’s defense has allowed less than 60 points in 8 of their last 11 games. Both rank in the top 25 nationally in FG% allowed with Boise giving up 37.3% and Nevada allowing 38.5% from the field. Both teams are slower paced ranking outside the top 225 in adjusted tempo and both defenses really make opposing offenses work for shots with Boise allowing a shot every 17.6 seconds (228th) and Nevada allowing a shot every 18.7 seconds (357th). Neither team shoots the ball very well with each right around 43% on the season ranking them 255th. Both are solid defensive rebounding teams and both rank outside the top 220 in offensive rebounding so we don’t expect many 2nd chances. These teams have combined for a 16-8 Under record this season. First conference game for both teams so we expect the defensive intensity to ramp up on Wednesday night. Under is the play. |
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12-28-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 231.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - We are betting the value of the number in this game and that’s Under the total. These two teams met in late November and the O/U on that game was 224. They scored 231 points in that game but both teams shot above their season averages. In fact, the last ten meetings have all finished with 231 or less points with the Under cashing 8 of ten times. Milwaukee holds the 6th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.104-points per possession. They are coming off a horrible defensive showing last time out when they allowed 139 points to the Celtics. Expect a very focused effort here off that embarrassing outing. The Bulls are in a similar situation as they just gave up 133 to the Rockets. Chicago is slightly below the league average in DEFF but they are slightly better defensively at home. When the Bucks have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219 total points. The Bulls games at home are averaging 226.1PPG. Combined these two teams have road/home records of 10-20-1 to the Under. This one stays Under the number. |
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12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one. |
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12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 118-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, Sunday 5:00 pm ET - This is a rematch of last year's playoff series which the Celtics won in 7 games. All seven of those games finished with 224 or less points. The four games in that series where the Celtics were the host averaged 198 total points. Neither team plays fast as they both average around 99 possessions per game which is about league average. The Bucks are the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.095-points per possession. The Celtics own the 8th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.111PPP. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings between these two rivals. |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain. |
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12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
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12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets UNDER 224 | Top | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - According to our computer this is a very generous number by the oddsmakers. Our simulators are projecting 218 total points being scored here. When it comes to pace of play these two teams prefer a slower tempo. The Magic are the 9th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Rockets are the 12th slowest. Neither is efficient in their scoring either as the Magic average 1.108 points per every possession (25th in OEFF) while the Rockets average 1.094PPP (26th OEFF). Neither team shoots it well as the Magic rank 17th in FG% and 21st in 3-point shooting. The Rockets offense is worse shooting 44.2% as a team (30th) and 32.7% from beyond the arc which ranks 28th. Both defenses are average or slightly below. Houston has scored or allowed 108 or less points in eight straight games. Orlando has allowed 109 or less in 7 of their last ten regulations. We like this game UNDER the total |
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12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
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12-20-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 223.5 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Bulls should step up defensively tonight after allowing an embarrassing 150-points in their last game to the Timberwolves. Minnesota shot a ridiculous 66% overall, 53% from Deep which are clearly both aberrations. Miami is coming off a few games against teams that like to play fast or are high scoring yet they’ve stayed below 219 total points in 4 straight. The Heat are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA at 25th in possessions per game. The Bulls try to play faster, ranking 10th. The Bulls rank 22nd in offensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession, the Heat are 27th at 1.093PPP. Defensively both rank in the top half of the league in efficiency with the Heat checking in at 6th. The Bulls are 15th. This is the highest number posted on this series in the last 10 meetings. In the only other meeting this season the Over-Under number was 217. We expect the defenses to dominate tonight and a game in the 216 range. |
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12-19-22 | Texas-Arlington v. San Francisco UNDER 137.5 | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
#827/828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – UT Arlington vs San Francisco, Monday at 10 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both of these teams. Both teams have stronger defensive efficiency numbers and eFG% allowed numbers when compared to their offenses. The shooting numbers for these two are not pretty. UTA ranks 335th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 332nd in FG% and 348th in 3 point FG%. USF ranks 234th in FG% and 247th in 3 point FG%. We don’t expect many 3 pointers made in this one as both defenses rank in the top 60 at defending the arc while both offenses are not good from deep as we mentioned. San Francisco prefers to play up tempo but UT Arlington will slow this game down (262nd in adjusted tempo) which gives them the best chance to stay close. The Dons have played a number of fast paced teams this season which has given a boost to their scoring numbers. However, in the 5 games they’ve played this season vs teams that rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo, they’ve topped 130 points only one time. UT Arlington has played 8 games this season vs Division 1 teams and only twice have they scored more than this posted total (currently 137.5) and those games only reached 143 and 144. Those 8 games involving UTA have averaged just 122 total points per game. The Mavericks slow this one down and the defenses take control. Under is the play. |
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12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win. |
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12-18-22 | Detroit v. Eastern Michigan OVER 157 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 157 Points – Detroit vs Eastern Michigan, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Two of the worst defenses in college hoops taking the court today in this game and we look for a high scoring affair. EMU’s defense ranks 354th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 359th in eFG% defense (out of 362). They are allowing 82 PPG which ranks them 357th in scoring defense. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 games vs Division 1 competition. The only 4 games in which they did not allow at least 80 points were all vs teams ranked outside the top 240 in offensive efficiency. Detroit ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and they are averaging 75 PPG on the season and that’s vs not a single team ranked outside the top 250 in defensive efficiency. This EMU defense will be by far the worst defense the Titans have faced this season and we expect them to get to at least 80 points. The EMU offense is also averaging 75 PPG and they’ve faced only 1 defense ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency (Oakland) and the 2 teams totaled 182 points in that game. Eastern Michigan ranks 54th in adjusted tempo and Detroit ranks 173rd so neither mind playing fast. Detroit loves to shoot the 3 and they do it well hitting almost 40% and they are facing an EMU defense that ranks 225th defending the arc. Defensively Detroit allows almost 40% from deep ranking 353rd so we look for both teams to have success from beyond the arc. Both teams shoot over 72% from the foul line as well which should boost the scoring numbers here. This will be a fast paced, high scoring game and we’ll take the Over. |
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12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs. |
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12-17-22 | North Texas v. Massachusetts UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#637/638 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – North Texas vs UMass, Saturday at 3 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation in adjusted tempo while UMass likes to play fast. They are also dead last in possessions per game at 59 which is a full 4 possessions lower than the next team. As we’ve said in the past, the slow paced team almost always gets control of the tempo and we expect that here. It’s always easier to slow down a fast paced team rather than speed up a slow paced team. The Mean Green rank 4th nationally in points allowed per game at 52. While we know UNT has been one of the better defensive teams in the country in each of their 6 years under head coach Grant McCasland, UMass is now a defensive minded team as well under new head man Frank Martin, formerly at KSU and South Carolina. His teams were always known for defense and he has already instilled that this year with the Minutemen. The difference is drastic with UMass ranking 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season after finishing last year ranked 348th in that category. Neither team shoots the ball great with UNT ranking 308th in eFG% and UMass 212th. The Minutemen have played 3 straight fast paced teams and they’ve only faced 1 team this year ranked lower than 300 in pace and that was Charlotte. The total points scored in that game was 114. These 2 met last year and totaled 123 points and that was when UMass had a terrible defense as we mentioned. It looks like Massachusetts will again be without their leading scorer PG Fernandes with an ankle injury. Defense is the strength of both teams and if North Texas gets the pace as we expect, this stays Under. |
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12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 145.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#879/880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Missouri State vs Oral Roberts, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on Mizzou State vs IPFW Under over the weekend and it cashed easily. This MSU team is a dead Under team this far with an 8-1 record to the Under. Their games are averaging 122 total points and they haven’t played in a single game that has topped 140 points this season. The Bears are one of the slowest paced teams in the country ranking 330th in adjusted tempo and they average just 65 possessions per game ranking 352nd. Oral Roberts likes to play fast and you can bet Missouri State will slow this game down taking the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. ORU has had some high scoring games but the majority of those have come vs teams that love to play fast as well. Neither team are great on the offensive boards which should limit 2nd chances. Neither team gets to the FT line very much with ORU scoring just 13% of their points from the stripe (344th nationally) and Mizzou State scoring 12.5% from the stripe (354th nationally). The Eagles love to shoot 3’s and have a solid 37% team shooting from deep but MSU is solid at defending the arc allowing just 32%. The Bears also like to shoot the 3 but they are flat out bad at it hitting 29% (315th). These 2 met last year and the total was 150. ORU wanted to play fast and MSU took them out of their game and the total points scored ended up being just 129. If Missouri State gets the pace they want here, which we believe they will, this should stay Under the Total. |
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12-16-22 | Warriors v. 76ers OVER 222 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 222 Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers, 7:40 PM ET - An average NBA game is 226.4 total points per game. Clearly this number is below that and we don’t see this game being ‘average’. On the season the 76ers are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, Golden State is the fastest. Philly though has seen an uptick in their overall tempo with the return of James Harden. In their last five games the Sixers are 15th in pace of play. Not surprisingly, also with the return of Harden the defense of the 76ers has regressed. Golden State is without Curry here but do get Klay Thompson back to anchor the 5th highest scoring offense in the NBA. The Warriors road games this season have averaged 238.1PPG. Philly at home has averaged 218. Golden State has gone Over in 5 straight road games, Philadelphia is on a 4-1 Over streak themselves. It’s not too much to ask both teams to score more than 111-points each. |
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12-15-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - We successfully played Under last night in the Timberwolves vs. Clippers game and will stay with another Under on the Clippers again tonight. Let’s consider this. Last night the Wolves/Clippers Over-Under number was 221 and the Wolves are the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA with the 17th worst defensive efficiency. The line on tonight’s game is just 3-points higher and the Suns are the 9th slowest paced team in the league and rank 10th in DEFF. The Clippers have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.098PPP. Los Angeles also prefers a slow tempo ranking 8th lowest in possessions per game. This series has seen 5 straight Unders cash, 4 last season and 1 this year with the five meetings averaging just 204.8PPG. Since the start of last season, the Suns are 41-44 Under against other Western Conference teams, the Clippers are 28-46-1 or 62.2% Under. If it’s not broken, why fix it. Bet Under again tonight. |
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12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers – 10:10PM ET - The Clippers just faced the #1 offensive team in the NBA in the Celtics and the O/U number on that game was 225.5. It finished with just 206 total points. LA has the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.104-points per possession. Minnesota ranks 20th in DEFF but do limit foes to just 46.2% shooting which is 9th best overall in the league. The Timberwolves defense doesn’t have to be great though as the Clippers offense is 29th in scoring at 107.9PPG and have the 4th worst offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Wolves aren’t a whole lot better offensively ranking 18th in OEFF. Minnesota doesn’t shoot the 3-ball well at 33.4% which is 25th. Minnesota will want to play fast but the Clippers will dictate the tempo they want as the home team and they prefer to play slow (23rd pace). We don’t see this game getting above 216. |
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12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -120 | Top | 87-60 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland -120 over UCLA, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We really like this spot for Maryland. The Terps started the season 8-0 including 5-0 at home. They have since lost back to back games vs 2 very formidable opponents. Last week Maryland lost by 5 in Madison vs Wisconsin and over the weekend they lost by 3 on a neutral court to one of the top teams in the nation, Tennessee. In their 56-53 loss to the Vols, the Terps made only 2 of 24 three pointers (8%) and were outscored by 15 from beyond the arc but still nearly won the game. Now back at home in a semi desperate situation off 2 losses, we see Maryland playing very well. UCLA has won 5 straight games but they haven’t left the state of California since November 20th. Their only true road game this season was @ Stanford. The Bruins did have 2 neutral site games in November in Las Vegas which is a very short trip and they lost both vs Baylor and Illinois, a team Maryland beat at home already this season. This is a long trip, west coast to east coast, for UCLA and on top of that they have a huge game in New York City on Saturday vs Kentucky. The Bruins get to the FT line very infrequently (12.7% of their points) while Maryland scores 20% of their points at the stripe. That could be the difference here. Both teams also prefer to play inside the arc with UCLA scoring 62% of their points and Maryland 52% from 2 point land. Defensively, the Terps are outstanding defending inside the 3 point line allowing 43% shooting (29th nationally) while UCLA not so much giving up almost 53% shooting (261st). The Bruins lost 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team and have a number of freshman in their rotation. This will be their first big true road game and we like Maryland to win this one at home. |
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12-13-22 | Celtics v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 233.5 Boston Celtics @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Celtics are the #1 offensive team in the NBA in terms of scoring at 120PPG and efficiency at 1.194PPP. Boston is the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 39.7% and rank 8th in 3PT attempts per game. The Lakers are 26th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.3PPG. The Lakers are 19th in defensive efficiency giving up 1.127PPP. In the Lakers most recent 5-game stretch they have allowed 122.2PPG which is the highest in the NBA. But, in that same stretch of 5-games they are 6th in scoring at 118.2PPG. Pace of play is important here as the Lakers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA. The Celtics are 15th. Boston has the best Over record in the NBA when playing without rest at 15-4-1 since the start of last season and those games have gone Over by an average of +12.2PPG. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight. |
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12-10-22 | Mavs v. Bulls -120 | Top | 115-144 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls Money Line -120 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - Dallas is coming off a huge showdown at home against the Bucks and will have a tough time in the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Chicago meanwhile has been off since Dec 7th. The Bulls recently played a very tough stretch of road games going 2-4 SU. They then returned home and got a solid home win against the Wizards. Dallas is just 3-8 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG. Chicago is 6-5 SU at home with a +1.7PPG average margin of victory. The Mavs are 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Since the start of last season the Mavericks have the 4th worst ATS record in the NBA when it comes to playing out of Conference at 15-24-2. This is a great spot for Chicago and we like them here in a double-digit win. |
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12-10-22 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Missouri State UNDER 134 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
#723/724 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – IPFW vs Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offensive teams going at it here. They are both ranked outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%. They are both much better defensively allowing less than 1.00 points per possession on the season ranking them 101st and 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency. IPFW has had a few higher scoring games this season, however those have been vs poor defensive teams that like to play at a fast tempo. In this game, IPFW will be facing a Missouri State team that wants to play slow (321st in tempo) so we expect the host Bears to control the tempo here. When facing teams similar the Mizzou State (slow tempo & solid defensive teams) IPFW has totaled 115 points (vs Northwestern) and 128 points (vs Southern Miss). The only game that Missouri State has played this year that topped 131 total points was vs Detroit which is a fast paced team and the Titans rank 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency and that game only got to 140 total points. In their other 7 games, the Bears are averaging 120 total points. Neither team is adept at offensive rebounding so we don’t look for many 2nd opportunities and both get to the foul line infrequently. This has all the makings of a low scoring grinder and we’ll be on the Under. |
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12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points. |
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12-09-22 | Bucks v. Mavs UNDER 226 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These two teams just met recently in Milwaukee with a total of 216.5. They went over that number with 239 total points. With the adjustment of the O/U we like the value and an Under bet here. In the game the other day both teams shot well above their season averages as the Bucks hit 56% from the field (46.1% season ave), while the Mavs shot 51% (47.2% season average). The two teams attempted 166 total field goals which is significantly lower than the league average of 176.2. On the season the Bucks road games have averaged 213.3 total points per game. Dallas at home has averaged 216.2PPG. Milwaukee owns the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA and are 11th in 3PT% D. Milwaukee is average in pace of play and the Mavericks are the 2nd slowest in terms of tempo. Both teams are in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rating too. It all adds up to a less than average NBA score. Bet UNDER. |
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12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night. |
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12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here. |
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12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire. |
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12-05-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We get two of the slowest paced teams in the league squaring off here is what shapes up to be a low scoring game. The Phoenix Suns rank 24th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game. The Dallas Mavericks are slower yet ranking 29th at 95.6 possessions per game. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency but also both top 10 in defensive efficiency. This series has seen the Under cash in 5 of the last six meetings and all six of those games finished with less than 213 total points. This is going to be a half-court game and unless both teams shoot remarkably well it stays under by 10+ points. |
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12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright. |
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12-03-22 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 232 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 232 Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets – 8:40 PM ET - The Rockets are in a tough situation here as are the Warriors. Houston is coming off an improbable upset of the Suns last night in Phoenix as a +11.5-point dog. Prior to that game the Rockets had played 2 straight in the higher altitude of Denver making this their 4th game in six days. Golden State played last night too and will probably rest Klay Thompson and maybe even Draymond Green here. This is the Warriors 3rd game in five days. These same two teams just met in Houston and produced a combined 247 total points. The Rockets defense has been especially bad allowing 119 or more in 7 of their last ten games. Even without Thompson in the lineup for GST the Warriors can still score with Poole and DiVincenzo off the bench. Poole just poured in 30-points last night. Golden State historically has been a great defense under Steve Kerr but that hasn’t been the case this season as they rank 17th in defensive efficiency and give up 117PPG. The young Rockets are starting to figure things out offensively as they have scored 118 or more points in 4 of their last six. Two tired teams won’t play much defense tonight and this goes Over rather easily. |
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12-03-22 | Wisconsin v. Marquette UNDER 136 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 136 Points – Wisconsin vs Marquette, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Both teams coming off high scoring games earlier this week which gives us some value on the Under in this rivalry. The Badgers played host to Wake Forest on Tuesday and lost a tight one 78-75 which was easily their highest scoring game of the season. Even with that score factored in, Wisconsin games are averaging just 121 points on the season. IN that game the two teams combined to make over 48% of their shots and over 38% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard was not happy after the game with his defense and you can bet they’ll play very well on that end here. Prior to that game the UW defense had allowed only 1 team to reach 60 points and that was Kansas who scored 63 in regulation. The Badgers held USC to 59, Dayton to 42, and Stanford to 50 to name a few. Marquette lit up Baylor here earlier this week scoring 96 points. However, they also made almost 60% of their shots and they were in a up and down the court game with the Bears who love to play fast. Marquette does as well ranking 27th in adjusted tempo. Wisconsin ranks 303rd in that category and Gard will do everything in his power to slow this game down to keep the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. As we’ve said many times, it’s much easier for a team to slow the pace rather than speed up a team that doesn’t want to play that style. We expect a lower possession game here. Both teams are strong defensively ranking 16th (Wisconsin) and 40th (Marquette) in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have been able to turn teams over and create easy buckets this season but that’ll be tough vs Wisconsin who ranks 21st in offensive turnover rate. Marquette played one team this year that was very similar to Wisconsin in defensive efficiency and pace and that was Mississippi State. That game ended with a final score of 58-55 in favor of the Bulldogs. This one stays Under the total in this intense, in-state rivalry. |
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12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread. |
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12-02-22 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - Both teams are coming off disappointing losses which can largely be attributed to poor offensive play. The 76ers managed just 85-points against the Cavaliers, shooting just 42% overall and 23% from Deep. The Grizzlies turned the ball over 27-times and missed 12-free throws in a loss at Minnesota. We expect both offenses to get back on track here. For the season the Grizzlies have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating overall and when playing at home. The 76ers rank 19th overall in OEFF but have a higher efficiency rating when playing on the road. The 76ers also tend to play faster when away from Philly and give up more points per possession. Memphis has played much faster in their last five games and will want to dictate tempo in this one, forcing the Sixers to also play fast. When Philly is the road team this season those games have averaged 217.2PPG. When the Grizzlies have played at home those contests have averaged 226.9PPG. Let’s not forget that an average NBA game this season has finished with 226 total points which means we need an ‘average’ performance from both teams to cash this ticket. |
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12-02-22 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte UNDER 122.5 | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points – Appalachian State vs Charlotte, Friday at 7 PM ET - Low total here for a reason. Two very slow paced teams facing off here and we don’t expect many possessions. Charlotte ranks 362nd (out of 363 teams) in adjusted tempo and App State ranks 260th in that category. Charlotte is 361st in possessions per game and ASU is 179th. The 49ers are coming off a game earlier this week in which they played a very good offensive team, Davidson, who ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and 56th in eFG%. That game went to OT but the score at the end of regulation was 59-59. Now they face an App State offense that ranks 256th in offensive efficiency and 208th in eFG%. Charlotte is far from a great offensive team ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG%. Both rank outside the top 200 in 3 point shooting percentage and neither team is adept at offensive rebounding (331st and 286th). Both teams protect the ball committing few turnovers so not many 2nd chance offensive points in this game or extra possessions. We think both teams will struggle to get to 60 here and we’ll take the UNDER. |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - The Pistons just allowed 140-points to the Knicks which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this line higher than it should be. The Mavericks are the slowest paced team in the league and score just 109.4PPG. They will slow things down and keep them from being a high scoring game. Detroit is 15th or basically average in pace. It’s not like the Mavs are great when it comes to offensive efficiency either as they rank 11th in points per possession. Detroit ranks 23rd in points per possession at 1.099PPP. The Mavs are 9th in defensive efficiency and will limit the Pistons scoring opportunities here. Granted Detroit is 2nd to last in DEFF but you can expect Dallas to do their best to manage load minutes for Luka Doncic and the rest of the starters. Detroit recently played a Cavaliers team that is similar to Dallas in many regards and the game finished with 196 total points. Dallas has allowed point to a few good offenses in recent games (Warriors, Bucks, Celtics) but if you remove those teams they have allowed 105 or less in 5 straight games. The Under is the play here. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one. |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle. |
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11-28-22 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 225 | Top | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 225 Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics are shooting 40% from deep which ranks 1st in the NBA. They shoot 49% overall which is 4th and they average the most points per game at 120.4PPG. Defensively the Celtics aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past ranking 14th in PPG allowed at 113.3. They also allow opponents to shoot 46.8% (16th) overall and 34.9% from beyond the arc (12th). The Hornets are averaging 109.4PPG which is one of the lower numbers in the league and allowing 114.2PPG which is roughly league average. Charlotte is playing at a faster pace in recent games as they are the 8th fastest team in their last five games. Boston is on a 9-0 Over streak at home when facing a team with a losing road record. Charlotte is on a 6-0 Over run when playing on the road versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Boston has scored 122 or more points themselves in 7 of their last ten games. This one gets Over the number rather easily. |
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11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG. |
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11-26-22 | Thunder v. Rockets +2 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight. |
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11-23-22 | Mavs v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Dating back to the start of last season these are two of the three best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss with Dallas going 31-13 SU, Boston 29-14 SU. Boston though is 15-6 ATS their last 21 when coming off a loss and considering how poorly they played against the Bulls last time out they should be highly focused here. The Celtics are coming off Monday's 121-107 loss to the Chicago Bulls which snapped a nine-game winning streak. In those 9 wins the Celtics average Margin of Victory was +11.4PPG. The Bulls loss was frustrating considering the Celtics committed 15 turnovers and shot just 43.7% as a team. Dallas is coming off a loss to Denver and a 5-game home stretch which saw them go 2-3 SU. The Mavericks are just 1-4 SU away from home and have played a soft schedule to date. When the Mavs have faced an above .500 team they are just 2-7 ATS. Dallas has some misleading defensive numbers as they allow just 105.3PPG on the season (1st) but teams shoot 47.1% from the field versus them, 35.8% from deep (15th). The biggest reason the Mavs don’t allow a ton of points is the slow pace they play at (slowest in the NBA). Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.190-points per possession and the 5th best overall shooting percentage (48.4%) and 3rd best 3PT%. Boston also owns a +/- at home of +8.7PPG. |
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11-23-22 | Blazers v. Cavs OVER 213 | Top | 96-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 213 Points - Portland Trailblazers vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are betting value here as this number has been set to low, AGAIN. We successfully played Under in the Blazers/Bucks game on Monday night and this is nearly the exact same setup as that game. The Cavaliers are similar to the Bucks in defensive efficiency but much better in OEFF as they average 1.162-poins per possession. Granted the Cavs play slower than the Bucks but again, they make up for it by being highly efficient. Proof is in the numbers as the Cavs average 115PPG, compared to the Bucks 111PPG. The Blazers defense has allowed their last five opponents to average over 50% shooting and the Cavs have averaged better than 50% in their last five games. Portland games this season have averaged 218.3PPG, Cavs games have averaged 223.85PPG. This is one of the lowest O/U numbers posted on a Portland game this season and the 2nd lowest on a Cavs game. This game is going to be closer to a league average game of 225.2-points, not 214. Both teams are trending in the right direction for an Over here as both teams games are averaging 226+ in their last five. |
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11-23-22 | Denver v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 134.5 | Top | 86-64 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
#691/692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – IUPUI vs Denver, Wednesday at 5 PM ET - One terrible offense and one not so great offense should lead to a low scoring game here. IUPUI is averaging just 51 PPG on the season (dead last in the nation) and their 4 games so far on the year have averaged 121 total points. It’s not as if they’ve been playing a slate of great defenses, this team just can’t shoot ranking 363rd in 3 point percentage (19%) and 359th in overall FG% (out of 363 teams). Their high scoring effort was 59 points vs Franklin College and their top effort vs a D1 school was 58 vs Chicago State who ranks dead last in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Denver is better on the offensive end but it’s not like this is a good shooting team either. The Pioneers are decent offensively inside the arc, however from 3-point land they rank 360th hitting just 22% of their shots. Thus, in this game we have 2 of the 4 worst three point shooting teams in the nation which will make it really tough to get to this number. As you would expect, neither attempts many 3’s ranking 358th and 362nd in percentage of points scored from deep. Neither team shoots FT’s very well (60% and 66%) and they aren’t adept at offensive rebounding so we don’t see many second chance points. With Denver favored by 11 in this game the projected final score is right around 73-62. As we stated, IUPUI hasn’t gotten to 60 points yet this season and if we subtract Denver’s game vs Colorado College, they are averaging 69 PPG. Under is the call here. |
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11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 227.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Suns are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season at 97 possessions per game but they are 9th in PPG averaged at 115.1PPG. A big reason the Suns put up points is their overall shooting as they rank 10th in overall FG% and 6th in 3PT%. The Lakers though have the 12th best FG% defense in the league, 4th in defending the 3-point line. The Lakers are going to have their own problems scoring against this Suns defense that ranks 8th in defensive efficiency at 1.105PPP allowed per possession. Los Angeles is 19th in scoring at 111.1PPG are 21st in team FG% and 30th in 3-point shooting. The Under has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings and we predict a lower scoring game here. |
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11-22-22 | Liberty +4.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#667 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty +4.5 over Northwestern, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - The Flames are coming off an upset loss at home vs Southern Miss on Friday and we like them to bounce back in this neutral site game (Rivera Maya, Mexico) vs Northwestern. It was a game where Liberty came out flat and got way behind before coming back and having a chance late but losing by 4. It was a disappointing performance for a veteran team that may have been peeking ahead to their trip to Mexico. Liberty returns 7 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that won the Atlantic Sun and finished with a record of 22-11. That includes 2-time conference player of the year guard Darrius McGhee (25 PPG) who spurned Power 5 transfer offers to finish out his career with Liberty. Head coach Ritchie McCay has built a very good program @ Liberty after coming over from New Mexico back in 2008. He has led the Flames to 6 consecutive 20 win seasons. In their Hawaii tourney last year, Liberty with basically this same team, beat a very good Northern Iowa team who won the Missouri Valley, lost by 3 vs Stanford (blew a 13 point lead), and lost by 5 vs BYU who finished with a 24-11 record. This team is experience and battle tested. Northwestern steps into this game with a 4-0 record but we think they are overvalued at this point. We have them tabbed for 12th in the Big 10 this year after finishing 7-13 in league play last year. In their most recent game they held off IPFW at home winning by 8 after leading by just 1 points with just over 2:00 remaining in the game. Liberty is a solid shooting team that finished in the top 35 nationally from both inside and outside the arc last year while also making 77% of their FT’s. They’ve gotten off to a little slower start this year but still shooting well ranking 80th in eFG%. We think they’ll give NW big problems in this game and we actually have this game rated dead even. Value on Liberty Tuesday evening. |
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11-21-22 | Blazers v. Bucks OVER 214 | Top | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 Portland Trailblazers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - We are betting value here as this number has been set to low as a result of Damian Lillard’s injury tonight. As soon as Lillard was ruled out with a calf injury this number dipped by 3-full points. Portland games this season have averaged 218.3PPG, Bucks games have averaged 217.5PPG. This is the lowest O/U number posted on a Portland game this season and the 2nd lowest on a Bucks game. Milwaukee just played a game against the 76ers and the O/U was 212.5 and the 76ers are worse defensively and offensively than the Blazers and play at a similar pace. This game is going to be closer to a league average game of 225.2-points, not 214. Both teams are trending in the right direction for an Over here as both teams games are averaging 220+ in their last five. |
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11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 6 PM ET - The Utes are coming off a home loss in a game they were favored so we look for a strong bounce back effort here in Fort Myers. That loss vs Sam Houston State isn’t looking as bad as many may think as SHSU is not a perfect 4-0 on the season and they also have a win @ Oklahoma. Utah returns all 5 starters from last season and they added a few transfers including F Ben Carlson from Wisconsin who will help up front. Georgia Tech is coming off a 12-20 season and while they are 3-0 this year, they haven’t played a team ranked higher than 224th. In that game vs 224th ranked Georgia State, who lost all 5 starters and is projected near the bottom of the Sun Belt, the Yellow Jackets squeaked out a 2 point win. Tech loses their top 2 players from last season, DeVoe and Usher who combined to average over 33 PPG, and they are left with very little experience. In their 3 games thus far the Jackets have shot the ball poorly with an eFG% 42.7% (324th nationally) and those numbers come vs lower level competition. Now they face a Utah defense, that has plenty of size inside and had held their opponents this season to an eFG% of 38.2% which is good for 8th best in the country. The Utes also have a nice size advantage and should control the glass vs a Tech team that has allowed their first 3 opponents to gather nearly 36% of their offensive boards which ranks the Jackets 314th in defensive rebounding. And those numbers came vs teams that are nowhere near the size of Utah. Most projections have Georgia Tech finishing dead last in the ACC after finishing 2nd to last a year ago. We like Utah here. |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers -4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS. |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL -2 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -2 over Providence, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Miami returns 5 of their top 8 players from a team that made it to the Elite 8 last season. On the other side, Providence must replace all 5 starters from last season and the Friars have played 2 teams ranked outside the top 250 and the one team they played ranked inside the top 200 (Rider at 194th) they struggled with winning by 1 point at home. Miami has also played a weak schedule but they’ve won all of their games by double digits. Despite their weak schedule, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from 3 point land which will be an issue facing a Miami team that scored over 38% of their points from deep (56th nationally) and the Canes shoot it well from beyond the arc (36%). Providence is 3-0 because they’ve shot a whopping 53 more free throws than their first 3 opponents, however, Miami has been very good at not sending teams to the FT line (69th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage at the stripe for the Friars which they are used to. Miami is the better team here and laying under 3 on a neutral gives us value with the Canes. Lay the small number. |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans +3 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans. |
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11-18-22 | Colorado State v. College of Charleston -115 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON College of Charleston -115 over Colorado State, Friday at 5 PM ET - Alright we’re going back to the well again today. Last night we were on C of C over Davidson and picked up a big 89-66 win. Today the Cougars face off against Colorado State who also is coming off a big win over South Carolina which is giving us some value here on the home team (this is a tournament but played on Charleston’s home court). CSU rolled over South Carolina last night, however while that may look extremely impressive beating an SEC team, we have the Gamecocks picked for last in the SEC this year after losing all 5 starters from a year ago and they have a new coach working on a new system both offensively and defensively. Charleston should do well in a tournament setting playing multiple games in multiple days as they rotate 10 guys throughout the game. They have 9 guys averaging double digit minutes this season. They were +16 on the boards last night as we projected and should control the glass again tonight. The Cougs ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and they are currently 28th this season while Colorado State is 328th on the offensive glass. The Rams have played a fairly weak schedule to date (290th) and prior to last night’s big win they struggled to beat Gardner Webb at home (won by 2) and only beat a terrible SE Louisiana team (ranked 321st) by 11 points. As we touched on last night, Charleston’s only loss this season was @ #1 ranked UNC in a game they led in the 2nd half. They have one close win vs a solid Richmond team in a game they led by 21 with 14 minutes remaining but let the Spiders back in it. They learned their lesson last night as they pushed out to a big win vs Davidson and then buried them not letting the Wildcats back in the game. CSU shot the lights out last night hitting nearly 60% of their shots and 72% of their 2 point attempts. We just don’t see that happening again tonight and we’ll side with the host to win this one. |
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11-17-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-130 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio. |
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11-17-22 | Davidson v. College of Charleston -2 | Top | 66-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2 over Davidson, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is part of the Charleston Classic Tournament which is being played on C of C’s home court so this is a home game for them. We were on the Cougars a few nights ago laying 2.5 points at home vs Richmond but lost by a half point when they won by 2 in OT. Now we’re laying less here (currently -1) vs a Davidson team we have power rated lower than Richmond. Ken Pom agrees with us as he has Davidson rated nearly 30 spots lower than Richmond. We like the value on this still underrated Charleston team. In their win vs Richmond earlier this week, the Cougars actually led by double digits for much of the way including a 21 point lead with 14 minutes remaining in the game. It was a game they should have won easily and they’ll learn from blowing that lead and keep their foot on the gas here. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). That will be an issue for depth shy teams and Davidson is one of those as they basically have a 7 man rotation. Another glaring weakness for Davidson is rebounding as they’ve been out boarded in all 3 of their games this season vs VMI, Wright State, AND tiny Guilford College. C of C is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation ranking 58th this season in offensive boards after ranking 10th last year in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities for the Cougars. Their lone loss this season was at #1 North Carolina in a game Charleston led midway through the 2nd half and outrebounded UNC. In Davidson’s lone road game this year, they were down 21 points vs Wright State and had to battle back and picked up a fortunate win in OT. They followed that up with a 4 point win over VMI at home, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. They could easily have 2 losses in their first 3 games under new head coach Matt McKillop who took over for his father after Bob McKillop retired at the end of last season. Tough match up for Davidson here and we’ll take College of Charleston to win at home. |
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11-16-22 | San Francisco v. Fresno State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
#703/704 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points, San Francisco vs Fresno State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - San Fran wants to play fast but Fresno is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation, this year and last year, so we expect them to get the slower tempo at home. The Bulldogs are also one of the best defensive teams in the nation last year allowing just 59 PPG (4th nationally) and this year they’ve allowed 56 & 61 points in their 2 games. Their most recent game vs a very solid UCSB team was on pace for well under 100 points (23-21 at halftime) and despite some scrambling and fouling late (18 points in the final 3 minutes) they still only hit 115 total points. SF has played 2 games as well (minus their game vs Cal Merced which tells us nothing) and they’ve had 2 glaringly different results. One was vs a very fast paced Texas State team which was high scoring and San Fran hit 60% of their shots. The other was vs a Cal Poly team that is slow paced, similar to Fresno, and plays decent defense but not at the level of the Bulldogs. That game totaled 108 points. These 2 met last year and the total was set at 128 and now we’re in the mid 130’s which is too high. In that game the 2 combined by for 134 points with San Francisco winning 71-63. After holding SF to just 24 points in the first half of that game, Fresno allowed the Dons to roll up 47 in the 2nd half which was one of their worst halves defensively of the season and it still stayed Under the total that is set for tonight. We expect FSU to slow this game to a crawl and play very well defensively at home. SF’s defense is no slouch either ranking in the top 50 last year in eFG% allowed and they are ranked 45th in that stat early on this season. Under is the play. |
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11-16-22 | Rockets +9.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here. |
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11-15-22 | Memphis v. St. Louis -2.5 | Top | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2.5 over Memphis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Billikens have been waiting for this one. Last year they finished with a 23-12 record and one of their worst losses of the season was @ Memphis 90-74. SLU actually attempted 22 more shots in that game but couldn’t hit the broadside making just 31% (Memphis hit 54%) and from beyond the arc only 23% (Memphis made 47%). While St Louis returns 5 players that started at least 16 games last year + they get Perkins back from injury (17 PPG in 2020/21 season), Memphis only has 3 players returning out of the 10 that played double digit minutes in last year’s game vs the Billikens. The Tigers have a number of transfers they are trying to incorporate which will take some time and they’ve only played 1 game so far this season. That was a 9-point win @ Vandy which doesn’t look all that impressive after the Commodores followed that loss up with another home 12-point setback vs Southern Miss who is projected by most to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. St Louis also added a veteran transfer from Missouri, Pickett, who averaged 11 PPG in the SEC last season and has scored 24 in his 2 games for SLU this year. They also have one of the more unheralded point guards in the nation in Yuri Collins who is drawing the attention of NBA scouts. St Louis was banged up last year with their top scorer Perkins on the shelf and a few other key players in and out of the line up and they still finished with a very good record. 8 of their 12 losses last year were by 7 points or less and now they are full strength and an undervalued team early in the season. With the short spread they may need to salt this one away at the FT line late and they can do just that hitting 80% from the stripe as a team this season after 77% a year ago. Huge home game for SLU and we’ll lay it. |
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11-15-22 | San Diego State v. Stanford +5.5 | Top | 74-62 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford +5.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We think this Stanford team is undervalued to start the season. They are 1-1 with a win over Pacific and a loss vs a Wisconsin team that is much better than many think. In their game vs Wisconsin, which was in Milwaukee, the Cardinal were 4 point dogs and now they are getting 5 or 5.5 at home vs San Diego State in this game. We have this one powered to SDSU as a 2 point favored so the value is on Stanford. In their 60-50 loss vs the Badgers, the shooting lines at AmFam Field in Milwaukee (home of the Brewers) were horrible and it showed in the shooting percentages. Stanford shot just 36% and they were 1 of 16 from beyond the arc for 6%! We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit 60% of their shots in the opener vs Pacific. Stanford returns 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year and add one of the top 3 point shooters in the country, Michael Jones, who averaged 12 PPG for Davidson last year. SDSU is very solid and one of the favorites in the MWC but a bit overvalued in our opinion. They just faced BYU, who we have power rated almost the same as Stanford, at home and while the Aztecs won by 8, they trailed for most of the game taking their first lead in the 2nd half with just over 4:00 remaining. The Aztecs had a huge edge at the FT line making 26 freebies to just 10 for BYU. That was a big revenge game for San Diego State after losing to BYU 66-60 last season. Now SDSU makes their first road trip of the season and they might be looking ahead to their trip to Hawaii for the Maui Classic up next. Not a great spot vs a solid team off a loss. Take the points with Stanford at home tonight. |
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11-15-22 | Clippers +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers. |
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11-14-22 | Suns +2 v. Heat | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss. |
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11-14-22 | Hornets +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here. |
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11-14-22 | Richmond v. College of Charleston -2.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight. |
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11-13-22 | Nets v. Lakers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 Brooklyn Nets @ LA Lakers, 9:40 PM ET - With it being NFL Sunday this is going to be an abbreviated analysis. Since Irvings suspension the Nets defense has been outstanding. Brooklyn has allowed 86, 94, 96, 85 and 95-points in five games. Their defensive efficiency on the season is 8th best at 1.105-points allowed per possession but in their last five games that number improves to .967PPP. Brooklyn is the 6th slowest paced team in the league and 12th in offensive efficiency. The Lakers are bad! LA is LAST in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.054PPP (slightly behind the Clippers who Brooklyn just held to 95Pts). The Lakers don’t have a clear identity right now when it comes to pace of play as they tend to play fast with other fast teams, then slow with grinding teams. LA is 29th in PPG scored, 25th in FG% and 30th in 3PT%. Even after the line move in this game we still like UNDER. |
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11-11-22 | Kings v. Lakers OVER 231.5 | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - No LeBron tonight, no problem concerning this Over-Under. Let’s face it, LeBron tends to slow the offense at times as he’s very deliberate when he has the ball in his hands on the offensive end of the court. With him out of the lineup that means more time for Westbrook who pushes the tempo every chance he gets. The Lakers are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.3 possessions per game. Sacramento is 13th in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. The Kings have solid offensive numbers as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 9th in scoring at 115.9PPG and are the 7th best shooting team in the NBA. They should improve on their scoring numbers against a Lakers defense that is not good this season ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG given up at 116.1. Granted, the Lakers offense has not been good either this season, but they have a great opportunity to ‘get right’ tonight against a Kings D that is 25th in PPG allowed (117.1), 29th in both overall FG% and 3PT% defense and 25th in DEFF. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they produced 241 and 236 total points. Bet OVER! |
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11-11-22 | Stanford v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5 | Top | 50-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
#677/678 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – Stanford vs Wisconsin, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played at the home of the Brewers, American Family Field. This will be the first basketball game ever at the field and the back drop is terrible. Really no back drop at all behind the baskets which will make it very difficult to shoot well. This total is set a little high in our opinion due to Wisconsin’s first performance of the year where they scored 85 points vs South Dakota and Stanford’s first game of the year where they put up 88 at home vs Pacific. The Badgers hit over 50% of their shots on Monday night vs South Dakota and made 12 of their 26 three point attempts. Stanford hit 60% of their shots vs Pacific and went to the FT line 34 times. Now they’ll both be facing far superior defenses than they faced in their openers and neither will be at home where they tend to be comfortable shooting the ball. Wisconsin averaged 69.9 PPG last year ranking them 175th nationally and lost their top 2 scorers Johnny Davis & Brad Davison. They will take some time to find their footing offensively early in the season vs solid opponents. Stanford averaged just 64 PPG last year ranking them 274th. Both of these defenses allowed less than 70 PPG last season and after facing defenses in their first game of the season that ranked 254th (South Dakota) and 271st (Pacific) in scoring last year, this is a huge step up on that end of the court. Wisconsin has picked up their pace a bit over the last few season but they still ranked outside the top 250 in tempo last year and Stanford was middle of the pack so neither play at a really fast pace. We expect a halfcourt game here in which both teams struggle to shoot the ball in this non familiar basketball venue. Neither team gets to 70 here and we like the Under. |
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11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER! |
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11-09-22 | Jazz v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks. |
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11-07-22 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season. |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 112-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 220 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great comparative opponent analysis here as the Pistons just faced the Bucks in two games who are very similar to the Cavs in terms of pace, offensive and defensive efficiency. In those two games the Bucks/Pistons totaled 207 and 218 total points. Cleveland has the 2nd best DEFF rating in the league allowing just 1.055-poins per possession and are the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA. The Pistons are 10th in pace, but have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the league. Cleveland is the ‘alpha’ team here and they’ll dictate tempo and keep this game from being high scoring. It looks like the Cavs may rest Donovan Mitchell here and his 31PPG will be missed. Last season, in the four meetings between these two teams they totaled 222 or less in all four. The bet here is UNDER. |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one. |
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11-02-22 | Hornets +6 v. Bulls | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover. |
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat -105 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Even vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40 PM ET - We get two elite teams in this showdown with both coming off 2 straight losses making this game a higher priority. Last Thursday these same two teams met in Golden State with the Warriors coming out on top 123-110 as a minus -5.5-point favorite. That natural swing in the line should have the Heat favored by -2.5-points here so let’s grab the value with Miami. The Heat were 36-15 SU in the regular season at home last year with a +/- of +5.8PPG. Golden State is 41-50 SU since 2020 on the road with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. The Warriors live and die by the 3-pointer and the Heat historically under coach Spoelstra defend the arc as well as anyone. This season they are 26th in the league in 3-point percentage D but they’ve been top 11 the past three years, 2nd a year ago. The Warriors defense is 30th in the NBA in points allowed this season and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Miami has covered 5 of the last seven at home versus the Warriors. Bet the home team! |
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10-31-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-139 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey. |
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10-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228.5 Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Tempo or pace plays an important component of this wager as we have one fast paced team in the Spurs (102.7 possessions per game) and the Bulls who are slightly faster than league average at 100. San Antonio is the 4th fastest team in the NBA, Chicago is 14th. But the Bulls pace numbers are a little misleading as four of the five teams they’ve faced are some of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The one game they faced a fast-paced team like the Spurs they finished with 233 points against Indiana and that Total was set at 234.5. In that comparison, the Spurs are just as fast as Indiana, way better offensively with the 9th most efficient offense and nearly identical defensively. San Antonio has struggled defensively allowing 121.6PPG but are also scoring 118PPG. The strength and weaknesses of both teams will exploit each other here. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well with the Spurs hitting 38.6% from deep which is 8th in the NBA. The Bulls hit 37.1% from beyond the arc which is good for 13th in the league. Neither team defends the deep ball well either with the Spurs ranking 25th in 3PT% “D” and the Bulls ranking 29th. Both teams have similar makeups to last years rosters and in the two meetings a season ago they put up 229 and 253 total points. Easy Over! |
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10-27-22 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 129-125 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - Brooklyn is coming off an embarrassing loss in Milwaukee last night and we should see a much better effort at home against the Mavs. The Nets/Bucks had a Total set of 228.5 last night and managed just 209 combined points. This number of 228.5 is the highest number set on a Mavs game this year by 9-full points. Pace will play an important role in this outcome as we have the 3rd slowest paced team in the Mavs and 15th in Brooklyn. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Nets are 12th in the league at 1.115-points per possession, the Mavericks are 1st at 1.231PPP which is not sustainable. In comparison, last season Dallas had an OEFF of 1.129PPP which was around league average. Last season in the two regular season meetings these two combined for 224 and 201 total points. Both teams have shot well above expectations early on but that should trend down as the weeks go on. Our projections have this game in the low 220’s. Bet UNDER. |
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10-26-22 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - This is a home-home series as these same two teams just met on Oct 24th in Minnesota. That game finished with 221 points and had a posted Total of 235. That game could have easily gone over the number but each team had an abnormal quarter. After putting up a combined 124-points in the first half it looked like a sure Over bet winner. Then the Wolves managed just 14-points in the 3rd quarter while the Spurs put up 12-points in the 4th. We should see another high scoring affair here with two teams that like to play fast. The Spurs are 4th in pace of play, the T-Wolves are 5th so we know there will be plenty of possession for a high scoring game. Minnesota is 13th in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are 21st so neither are exceptional on that end of the floor. San Antonio is scoring 117PPG, Minnesota is putting up 115.8PPG. Last season when these two teams met they put huge totals in 2 of the four games with 288 and 248-points. The oddsmakers lowered this Total by a few points so let’s grab the value and bet OVER. |
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10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 226 | Top | 105-134 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Money and tickets have driven his number up throughout the betting markets which gives us some added value on the Under. The Warriors have scored 123 and 130 in their last two games but those results came against Sacramento and Denver which rank 22nd and 29th in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they face a Phoenix team that allows just 1.053-points per possession which is 5th in the NBA. That’s not a shock either as the Suns were 3rd last season in DEFF. Golden State cannot maintain the pace of play they are currently playing at of 109.6 possessions per game. A great comparison is what they averaged last season of 98.3 possessions per game. Phoenix will want to slow this home game down as they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league at this point of the season. In fact, Phoenix just played a similar team to the Warriors in terms of scoring when they went to Portland who is averaging 117.3PPG and held them to 102-points in regulation. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 200, 214, 223 and 210 total points. That trend continues here…BET UNDER! |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly. |
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10-19-22 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215. Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors has essentially their roster intact from a year ago but the Cavs made the biggest offseason splash in the league with a trade for Donovan Mitchell (Jazz). Cleveland will take some time to adjust with Mitchell on the floor with Darius Garland so expect some lower scoring early on. These two teams were two of the best on the defensive end of the court and that’s not going to change this season. The Raptors were 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.106-points per possession. The Cavs were 7th at 1.097PPP. Both teams played extremely slow with the Cavs being the 26th slowest paced team in the league, while the Raptors were 27th. Neither team was great offensively with the Raptors ranking 15th in offensive efficiency, the Cavaliers were 20th at 1.119PPP. Under is the play here. |