Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia OVER 58 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
#313/314 ASA 8* PLAY ON OVER 58 Points – NC State @ Virginia, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET Virginia only scored 23 points last week but that was against Clemson! In fact, the Cavaliers moved the ball very well in that game and had 25 first downs and over 400 yards of offense. The Cavs were done in by two interceptions but that was an impressive effort against one of the best teams/defenses in the nation. Virginia entered that game off a 38-point outburst in a win over Duke. We like what we have seen from the Cavaliers offense early this season. The issue for the Cavs here will not be on offense however. It will be on defense where Virginia has concerns as they try to stop NC State. The Wolfpack are off an upset win at Pittsburgh last week. The Panthers have a very strong defense and their defensive line causes a lot of disruption and yet NC State managed to put up 30 points in their outright win as a two touchdown underdog. The Wolfpack have averaged 33 points per game in their first 3 games this season. However, the NC State defense has issues as they have allowed an average of 39 points per game this season. The key for the Wolfpack is an explosive offense and they got Leary back last week after he missed the first game and only played part of the second game of the season. Leary had over 300 yards passing versus a tough Panthers defense plus threw for the game winning TD (his 4th of the game!) with under a minute to go in the contest. This Wolfpack offense, especially with Leary back under center, is loaded with confidence right now. Even without him they scored plenty in their first two games this season. The issue for NC State here is they have injury issues on defense (a number of them) and are on the road for this one and we just don't see Virginia having any problems scoring in this game. Leary stays hot for the NC State offense but the Cavaliers have been balanced on offense and will keep an injury-depleted Wolfpack defense on its heels. Per our computer math modeling, both teams are likely getting into the 30’s in this one and that means an OVER here! |
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10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston OVER 58.5 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER: Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #303 |
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10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky OVER 62 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
#145/146 ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER 62 Points – Ole Miss @ Kentucky, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We were on the Ole Miss OVER last week when they played host to Florida and we’re right back on it again this week. Lane Kiffin is the new head coach for the Rebels and he knows offense and loves to play fast. They put up over 600 yards (7 YPP) on what was supposed to be a solid Florida defense coming into the season and ran nearly 80 offensive plays. The two teams last week combined for almost 1300 yards and 86 points. Not only that, the teams took some time to get moving offensively as the score was just 7-0 with under 4:00 minutes to go in the first quarter and they STILL almost reached 90 points. While the Ole Miss offense looks very good, the defense obviously did not allowing 51 points with Florida scoring points on all 5 of their 2nd half possessions. For the game, the Gators scored points on 9 of their 11 possessions and had to punt the ball just once the entire game. For the game Florida averaged nearly 9.0 YPP! We look for Kentucky’s offense to be very good this season. Last year the Wildcats offense was run based as they had to move a WR (Bowden) to QB after starter Terry Wilson was injured early in the season. Wilson is back at QB and we expect Kentucky’s offense to be much more balanced this season. Last week they ran the ball 40 times and passed 38 times which is the balance we expected. Last Saturday they only scored 13 points @ Auburn, however they put up nearly 400 yards and they had PLENTY of chances to put points on the board vs a very solid Auburn defense. In fact, the Wildcats threw an interception in the endzone going into score, fumbled at the Auburn 15 yard line, fumbled at the Auburn 30 yard line and turned the ball over twice on downs. So as you can see, they left some serious points off the board last week. Their defense, on the other hand, allowed 29 points and the Tigers pushed into Kentucky territory on 7 of their 10 possessions. Both of these teams are in the top 20 in offensive snaps per game after one week so as we mentioned we expect a fast paced game. Both teams will be facing defenses that are inferior to the opponents they faced last week so offense should be the name of the game here. These 2 SEC opponents have met just once since the 2011 season and that was a 37-34 final (71 total points) in 2017. With Kentucky favored by 6 and the total set at 61.5, the oddsmakers expect a 34-28 type final here. We agree the Cats will get into the 30’s however we do not see Kentucky holding Ole Miss below 30. Both teams in the 30’s mean an OVER here! |
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09-26-20 | Florida v. Ole Miss OVER 57 | 51-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER: Florida Gators at Ole Miss Rebels, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #419 |