#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Ohio vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Weather won’t be cooperative here as it’s expected to be cold and windy and game time with temps in the 20’s and winds pushing 20 MPH. Both teams love to run the ball ranking 23rd and 24th nationally in rushing attempts per game which eats clock. As you may assume, that means passing will be limited here with windy conditions and teams that don’t prefer to throw the ball (109th and 119th in pass attempts per game). WMU has, by far, the best defense in the MAC ranking 13th nationally in total defense and top 25 vs both the run and the pass. The Broncos are allowing just 15 PPG in MAC play and they’ve held 5 of their 6 conference opponents to 21 points or less. Problem is, their offense ranks outside the top 100 in total offense, YPP, and PPG. None of their conference games have topped 45 total points and the average total points in WMU games is 34. Ohio’s D has been very good in conference play not allowing more than 21 points in any of their games. The offense has solid numbers but they’ve faced a number of poor defenses. They’ve only faced 1 top 50 defense since taking on Ohio State back in September (Ohio scored 9 points in that game) and that was Miami OH last week. That game ended with a 24-20 final in favor of Ohio, however it was 10-6 entering the 4th quarter so they combined for 4 TD’s in the final quarter, including a 97 yard kickoff return, and the game still only reached 44 total points. Comparing WMU and Miami OH (Ohio’s opponent last week), the Broncos have a better D and a worse offense yet this total is set 7 points higher than last week’s game (Ohio vs Miami OH). Under is the call in this one.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 54 Points – James Madison vs Marshall, Saturday at 12 PM ET - JMU’s offense kicked it into high gear the last few weeks 63 and 52 points by themselves facing ODU and Texas State. Both of those defenses rank higher than this Marshall stop unit who comes in 131st in total D (out of 136 teams), 135th in pass defense and 93rd vs the run. The Herd are allowing 37 PPG in Sun Belt play and they’ve gone Over the total in 5 straight games by an average of more than 21 PPG. Offensively, since settling on Del Rio-Wilson as their starting QB, Marshall has scored 38, 42, 51, 48, 40, and 27 points. JMU began the season holding 5 of their first 6 opponents to less than 20 points, however those 5 teams all currently rank 80th or lower in total offense. The last 2 weeks vs decent offensive teams (ODU and Texas State), JMU allowed 20 and 27 points. The Dukes games are averaging 51 total points per game despite playing very weak offenses in 5 of their 8 games. Marshall’s games are averaging 66 total points. Weather looks great for this game with temps in the low 60’s and light wind around 5 MPH. This one goes OVER the total.

#107/108 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Northern Illinois vs Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this match up. Toledo’s defense isn’t discussed much but they are really good. They rank in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rush defense, pass defense, and they rank 12th in scoring defense allowing just 16 PPG. NIU’s offense ranks outside the top 130 (out of 136 teams) in total offense, YPP, pass offense and scoring putting up only 13 PPG. They’ve been held to 14 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games and they haven’t topped 21 points the entire season. The Huskies have faced one top 10 defense this year (San Diego State) and they scored 3 points in that game. On the other side of the ball, NIU is very solid. They rank 39th nationally in YPP allowed and are giving up only 22 PPG. Only 2 teams have topped 25 points vs NIU this season and one was Mississippi State from the SEC. The Huskies have gone Under the total in 6 of their 8 games and their games have averaged just 35 total points this season. Neither team plays up tempo with NIU ranking 80th in seconds per play (127th in plays per game) and Toledo ranks 82nd in seconds per play. Both rely more on the run than the pass which eats clock. Last year these 2 met in NIU and the final score was 13-6 in favor of Toledo. The Rockets are 2 TD favorites here so we can see them getting ahead and running this one out. Possible windy conditions in Toledo on Wednesday night and we like the Under.

#405/406 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points - Hawaii vs San Jose State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is a big number but our projections tell us the O/U isn’t high enough. Let’s start with the offenses for each team. San Jose State has the #1 passing offense in college football at 330.5 passing yards per game, Hawaii also throws it at 302 PYPG which ranks 10th. Hawaii is scoring 29.43 PPG on the season and has scored 44, 44 and 31-points in their last three games. SJST is scoring far less than their offensive numbers suggest at 24.1 PPG with critical mistakes costing them scoring chances. The Spartans are putting up 431 YPG at 6.2 YPP, both top 45 numbers. In their three conference games they have scored 35, 28 and 25 points. Defensively the Rainbows have the edge but neither of these stop units are good. San Jose State gives up an average of 426 YPG (120th), 6.1 YPP and 29.3 PPG (97th). The Spartans have given up 28 or more points in six straight games. Hawaii is allowing a respectable 323 YPG at 5.3 YPP (53rd) but gives up 11.6 yards per pass completion (86th) which doesn’t bode well against the SJST passing attack. Hawaii has allowed 27 PPG in conference play this season and gave up an average of 29 PPG on the road a year ago. These two teams average a play every 25.4 seconds which is faster than normal in college football so we’ll get plenty of snaps to create big play opportunities. This game should easily get into the 60’s. Bet OVER.

#393/394 ASA PLAY ON Over 59 Points – USC @ Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USC has the top offense in the country in YPG (530 YPG) and YPP (7.9). They are averaging 42 PPG and have topped 30 points in every game but 1 (vs Notre Dame). Even in their most recent game @ Notre Dame (2 weeks ago) the Trojans put up 400 yards but scored only 27 points. They’ve had a bye week to stew over that offensive performance and we can bet they’ll come out with something to prove on that side of the ball on Saturday night. Nebraska’s defense has solid YPG and YPP numbers on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest slates of offenses in the country thus far. In Big 10 play they’ve faced Michigan, Michigan St, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern. The last 4 teams on that list all rank 94th or worse in total offense with 3 of them ranking below 100th. The only offense that has a pulse in that group is Michigan (53rd in total offense) and they put up 30 points in Lincoln. The other 4, as poor as they are, scored 27, 31, 24 and 21 respectively. USC’s offense should have a field day on Saturday. The Husker offense is going to have to “keep up” in this game. They can do just that. Nebraska has scored at least 27 points in 4 of their 5 Big 10 games and they are facing a USC D that isn’t great ranking 70th in total defense and 91st in YPP allowed. They’ve allowed 31 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and their pass D isn’t great (75th). The Huskers have a high level QB Raiola and they love to throw the ball (18th in passing YPG and 17th in yards per pass attempt). They’ve faced back to back top 25 defenses (Minnesota & NW) so the offense gets a reprieve here. USC games are averaging 66 total points per game and Nebraska’s games are averaging 55 total points even though they’ve faced a number of weak offenses. These teams have combined to play 15 games with 10 going Over the total. The weather in Lincoln looks very good on Saturday night with temps in the 50’s and light winds.

#351/352 ASA PLAY ON Over 62 Points – Rutgers vs Illinois, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Illini offense has been sneaky good this year. They are averaging 33 PPG and the only 3 teams to hold this offense under 25 points were Ohio State (#1 scoring and total defense in the nation) and Indiana (#3 scoring D and #7 total D). If you throw out those 2 games vs top 5 type defenses, Illinois is averaging 40 PPG on the season. On Saturday, they’ll face the worst FBS defense they’ve seen this year in Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights rank 135th out of 136 FBS teams in YPP allowed at 7.7. They have allowed at least 31 points in every Big 10 game this season with the exception of last Saturday vs Purdue where they gave up 24 points. Offensively, Rutgers is averaging 32 PPG including putting up 28 points vs Iowa and Minnesota, 2 high level defensive teams (both top 25 in total defense). Last week they put up “just” 27 points @ Purdue but they LOTS of opportunities to easily exceed that number. They had 543 yards in that game but missed a FG, fumbled in Purdue territory, and were shut out on downs at the Purdue 6 yard line. They should be able to put points on the board here vs an Illini defense that is definitely down this season. They rank 87th in total D and are allowing 27.5 PPG (91st in the nation). In Big 10 play, this Illinois stop unit has given up 63, 32, 27, 34, and 42 points. Their games are averaging 65 total points in conference play and the only one that was lower than that was vs OSU the top defense in college football (34-16 final). Rutgers conference games are averaging 60 total points and that includes a game where their offense scored only 10 points vs Oregon (top 5 defense). Weather looks good for Saturday morning and this game should be dominated by the offenses.

ASA PLAY ON Over 55 Points - Marshall vs Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - The Marshall offense has taken off since settling on Del Rio-Wilson at QB after starting Zion Wilson the first 2 games. Since Del Rio-Wilson took over, this team has scored 38, 42, 51, 48, and 40 points. Two of those games were in OT but Marshall still hit 27 & 41 points in regulation in those games. In their most recent 4 FBS games (we’ll throw out their game vs FCS Eastern Kentucky) the Herd are averaging 465 YPG. We don’t see those numbers changing much here vs a Coastal defense that ranks 109th in total D, 113th in rush D, and 98th in scoring D. Coastal has allowed at least 37 points in 3 of their last 5 games and the 2 teams that did not reach that mark were South Alabama (88th in scoring) and UL Monroe (129th in scoring). The CC offense struggled mightily in their first 3 games of the season scoring 20 total points, however they’ve improved dramatically since then. Over their last 4 games they’ve averaged just over 28 PPG and topped 37 points in 2 of those games. Their most recent effort was their best on offense this season scoring 45 points on 410 yards vs App State on October 18th. That should give the offense some momentum heading into this one vs a Marshall defense that isn’t great. The Herd defense ranks 114th in total D and 115th in YPP allowed. While their offense has looked very good over the last 4 games, their defense has allowed 28, 54, 24, and 37 points during that stretch including vs 2 teams ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. Weather looks great in Myrtle Beach on Thursday night with temps in the 50’s and very light winds. Let’s go Over the total here.

#149/150 ASA PLAY ON Under 53 Points – Ole Miss vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’re getting some decent value on the Under in this game. The total opened 51.5 and had moved up to 54.5. Our opinion is there is no reason to bet this Over even at 51.5 so we’ll take the Under. Oklahoma has the best defense in the country ranking #1 in total defense, YPP allowed, and #2 in scoring D allowing only 9 PPG. They’ve played 7 games this season and allowed 5 offensive TD’s. The Sooner offense has been OK at best. They’ve been held to 26 points or less in 4 of their 6 FBS games and the 2 games they topped 26 points were vs Kent (133rd total defense) and Temple (74th total defense). All 7 OU games have gone Under the Total and those games are averaging 46 total points. Ole Miss brings in a highly ranked offense but a closer look reveals the average total defense rank of the teams they’ve faced is 73rd. They’ve faced 3 top 50 defenses this year and been held to 24 or less in 2 of those games (vs LSU and Washington State). Last week they did put up 35 points on a top 30 UGA defense but the Rebels only had 351 total yards which would normally get you to around 24 points with an average yards per point number (15 yards per point). 4 of Mississippi’s 6 games vs FBS opponents this year have totaled 55 or fewer points. Heavy rain is possible on Saturday in Norman which should slow down both offenses. We like the Under in this one.

#115/116 ASA PLAY ON Under 50 Points – California vs Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The defenses have better numbers than the offense on both of these teams. Cal has a top 35 overall D and their offense ranks outside the top 100 in total offense, YPP, and rushing offense. The Va Tech defense doesn’t have great numbers but they are better than their offense. The defense ranks 76th overall and their offense ranks 98th. The Hokies defensive numbers are misleading because they’ve already faced 4 top 30 offense in their 6 games vs FBS opponents. The worst offense they’ve faced is ranked 55th and now they face a Cal offense ranked outside the top 100. The Cal defense has held 5 of their 7 opponents to 24 points or less including holding 4 of those foes to 18 points or fewer. The Bears worst defensive effort was vs a Duke offense that ranks 19th overall. Va Tech will be the lowest rated offense they’ve faced this season. Only 1 of Cal’s games have topped 52 points this season and their average points scored in their games is 45. Va Tech’s average points scored in their games is 52 (very close to this number) but remember they’ve faced a number of very good offenses. Cal is not that. As we’ve stated, both of these defenses will be facing the lowest rated offense they’ve seen this season in this game (total offense) and we don’t see this one getting into the 50’s. Under is the call.

#413/414 ASA PLAY ON Over 60 Points - Oregon vs Rutgers, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Weather looks perfect here for a high scoring game with temps in the 50’s light winds and no precipitation at game time. Rutgers has gone Over in 5 of their 6 games this year and the only one that did not was last week @ Washington. That total was set in the low 60’s and the 2 teams combined for 57 points with the Huskies winning 38-19. The game should have been much higher scoring as the teams combined for well over 1,000 yards, there were 2 missed FG’s, Washington fumbled on the Rutgers 19 yard line, AND Rutgers was shut out on downs at the UW 6 and 11 yard line. Even with all that they still nearly got to 60 points. Rutgers has a very good offense and their defense stinks. They average 36 PPG on 444 YPG. Their defense ranks 134th in the country allowing 7.0 YPP. They are facing an Oregon offense that averages 6.9 YPP and scores 42 PPG. This Duck offense should be out for blood this week after scoring only 1 offensive TD last week in a 30-20 home loss vs Indiana. They should light up this Rutgers D that already allowed 38 points to Iowa, who ranks 115th in total offense, and 31 points to Minnesota, who ranks 106th in total offense. Those 2 games were vs defensive minded teams with poor offenses and they totaled 66 and 59 points respectively. The Scarlet Knights are going to have to “keep up” in this game offensively if they want to have a chance and they have the offense to do just that. Over is the call.

#315/316 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points - Louisville vs Miami FL, Friday at 7 PM ET - Defense is absolutely the strength of both teams in this ACC match up. Both stop units rank in the top 20 in total defense and YPP allowed. The Canes are allowing just 13 PPG and held a number of high powered offenses in check. USF ranks 12th nationally in scoring the Miami held them to 12 points. They stopped Florida in their tracks for just 7 points. FSU ranks 5th in scoring in the country and the Noles had 3 points with under 10 minutes to go in the game and they scoring 19 of their 22 points in the 4th quarter. Lastly one of the most potent offenses in the country, Notre Dame, barely had 300 yards of total offense. Louisville’s offense ranks just 60th despite only facing 1 defense ranked in the top 30 this season. That was James Madison and they only scored 21 offensive points in that one on only 265 total yards. The Cards defense is very good. They allow 21 PPG, however that number is misleading at they’ve given up 4 defensive TD’s this season. Take those scores out and this defense is allowing just 15 PPG. They held a potent Pittsburgh offense (averaging 40 PPG) to just 20 offensive points (Pitt had a defensive TD). They held Virginia’s offense (averaging 43 PPG) to just 16 offensive points (UVA had 2 defensive TDs). The Miami offense is decent but not great ranking 45th in total offense and 43rd in YPP. Only 1 of the Cane’s games this season have reached tonight’s total of 52. Both offenses are slow paced with Miami ranking 129th in seconds per play and Louisville ranking 76th. This one stays Under.

#171/172 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points - Michigan vs USC, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This game has all the makings of a high scoring affair with 62 or more points being scored as predicted by our math model. The Trojans have one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 565 total yards per game, 8.5 yards per play (1st), rushing for 6.4 yards per carry (4th) and passing for another 338 total yards per game (3rd). Michigan’s defense is overrated based on a schedule full of bad offenses. USC’s defense is in the middle of the pack statistically and has allowed 31 and 34 points the past two games to Michigan State and Illinois. In comparison, MSU is 110th in YPP offense averaging 4.8 YPP, Illinois is 32nd at 6.0 YPP. The Illini put up 500 total yards of offense against USC at 8.0 yards per play. This Michigan offense is the best unit USC has faced this season and much better than both Michigan State and Illinois. The Wolverines average 6.9 YPP, 438 total yards per game and 33 ppg.

#119/120 ASA PLAY ON Over 59.5 Points - Rutgers vs Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - This Rutgers team is a dead nuts Over team right now (5-0 to the Over this year). They rank 20th in the country in scoring and have not been held under 28 points this season. The 2 teams that held them to 28 were Minnesota and Iowa, 2 high level top 20 defensive teams. The problem is, they can’t stop anybody. 3 of the 5 teams they’ve faced have topped 30 points including Iowa and Minnesota who are poor offensive teams ranking 117th and 92nd respectively in total offense. The only opponents that did not top 30 points were Miami OH (100th in total offense) and Norfolk State. We’re not sure how they slow down a Washington offense that ranks in the top 25 averaging 6.7 YPP despite facing the best defense in college football already this season (Ohio State). This UW offense has some momentum as well scoring 24 points in the 2nd half last week @ Maryland after going scoreless in the first half. It was a HUGE letdown spot for the Huskies traveling across the country after facing #1 OSU a week earlier. They were terrible on offense in the first half and regrouped and had a great 2nd half. Now they come home where they average 38 PPG this season and again that includes at 6 point effort vs OSU, a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 10 points this season. The Huskies have solid overall defensive numbers but they have allowed at least 20 points in all of their FBS games this season. 3 of the 4 FBS teams they’ve faced currently rank outside the top 100 in total offense and they still pushed into the 20’s. Rutgers has the highest rated offense Washington has faced this year (YPG) and we like the Scarlet Knights to get well into the 20’s here. That should be enough to get this Over the total as we expect Washington’s offense to have lots of success here as well.

#391/392 ASA PLAY ON Over 62.5 Points - Boise St vs Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This Irish offense is humming to say the least. In their last 3 games they’ve put up 40, 56, and 56 points. And those games were vs SEC (Texas A&M), Big 10 (Purdue), and SEC (Arkansas) opponents. A&M has one of the better defensive teams in the country and ND put up 429 yards and last week vs the Razorbacks they rolled up 641 yards! They scored on 8 of their 9 possessions vs Arkansas on were shut out on downs in Razorback territory in their other drive. They should have big time success vs this Boise defense that is definitely a step down from past seasons. USF scored 34 points on 7.0 YPP vs this Boise State team and the Bulls rank 77th in total offense. Air Force put up 37 points on 6.9 YPP vs the Broncos. Now they face by far the best offense they’ve seen. The problem with ND has not been the offense obviously, it’s been the defense. They rank 73rd in total defense and they’ve allowed at least 27 points in 3 of their 4 games. Even last week vs Arkansas, they held the Razors to 13 points but Arkie still averaged nearly 6.0 YPP. Since their opening game vs USF where they scored only 7 points, the Broncos have put up 51, 49, and 47 points their last 3. Even in their USF game, while they didn’t put points on the board, they had almost 400 yards of total offense. We expect the Irish to top 40 points once again and if we get 20 or more from Boise, this goes Over. The Broncos have reached at least 20 points in 27 of their last 30 games and they should top that number again on Saturday. Weather looks perfect in South Bend on Saturday afternoon and this one will be high scoring.

#375/376 ASA PLAY ON Under 49.5 Points – Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - NIU’s offense has been terrible. They rank 133rd nationally averaging just 3.9 YPP. In their 2 games they’ve put up 19 points vs Holy Cross, which included a 96 yards kickoff return, and then they scored only 9 points vs Maryland. The Huskies have scored a grand total of 1 offensive TD so far this season. We don’t look for that to change here as they face a Mississippi State defense that ranks in the top 30 in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring D allowing 12 PPG. This Bulldog defense shut down a very good Arizona State offense and held them to only 20 points on 333 total yards. ASU has scored 38 and 34 points in their other 2 games. NIU is very solid defensively as well. They held Maryland to 20 points and finished 6th nationally last season in YPP allowed and 13th in scoring D allowing 18.8 PPG. The MSU offense is coming off a huge game putting up 63 points (63-0 Final) vs an overmatched FCS opponent (Alcorn State). That’s giving us some value on this Under. In their first 2 games they scored 34 vs Southern Miss and 24 vs Arizona State. The Dogs are a huge favorite here (-22) and they have a massive game vs Tennessee on deck. If they get out to a big lead, we expect them to slow the pace and grind out the final quarter moving onto their much more important SEC opener. They already showed us that tendency leading Southern Miss big, scoring 34 points in the first 3 quarters, before going scoreless in the 4th. NIU’s D is better than USM’s. The Huskies are a slow paced offense (80th in seconds per play) and that’s their only chance here is to make this a grind it out type game. Remember this team went into South Bend last year and held a very good Notre Dame offense to 14 points (16-14 NIU win). This Husky team loves getting into “rock fight” type games as 17 of their last 21 have failed to reach 50 points. Take the Under here.

#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points – Iowa vs Rutgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - Rutgers is 3-0 to the Over this year which is giving us some value on this Under. This total is a few points higher than it should be in our opinion because of that. The Knights have faced Ohio, Miami Oh, and Norfolk State thus far. Now they face an Iowa defense that is ranked in the top 5 nationally in YPG and YPP allowed. The Hawkeyes have allowed 30 points in 3 games this season and that includes holding a potent Iowa State offense to just 16 points on 238 total yards. While Rutgers offense has been humming vs inferior opponents, we think they hit a wall here and struggle on that side of the ball. While Iowa has a great defense, their offense continues to struggle as it has for year. Sure, they put up 34 vs FCS Albany and 47 vs UMass who ranks as the worst team in FBS, but in their 1 game vs a real team they struggled. That was vs ISU and in that game the Hawks put up 13 points on barely 200 total yards. They rank 122nd in total offense and they, as per usual, struggle throwing the ball ranking 134th (out of 136 games) on passing YPG. They thought South Dakota State transfer QB Gronowski would be the answer but he’s completed only 58% of his passes for 300 total yards this season. Both teams are slow paced on offense with Iowa ranking 81st in seconds per play and Rutgers ranking 123rd. This has been a very low scoring series as they’ve met 4 times since Rutgers joined the Big 10 and the total points scored in those games were 21, 22, 30, and 37 points. Let’s go Under here.

#135/136 ASA PLAY ON OVER 57 Points - Washington State vs. North Texas, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - North Texas’ offense plays fast, running a play every 21.2 seconds this season (5th-fastest in FBS). Last year, they were even faster at 19.9 seconds per play, which led to them scoring 33.4 points per game (top 20 in 2024). Their air raid system, led by new QB Drew Mestemaker (553 pass yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs), has looked very good in two games this season. Washington State is also capable of putting up a big offensive number in this game. The Cougars average a play run every 27 seconds this season (26.3 in 2024) and are coming off a season in which they average 33.8 points per game (also top 20). Their new QB, Jaxon Potter, just aired it out 42 times last week against San Diego State for 257 yards and 2 TDs. Last season, Washington State was elite at converting yards to points (12.6 yards per point, 20th in FBS), while North Texas was solid at 14.6 YPPT. In 2024 WSU games averaged 64 points, North Texas 68. Defensively, North Texas is shaky, especially against the pass. They ranked 122nd in pass yards allowed last year and just gave up 30 points to a Western Michigan team that only passed for 87 yards. Washington State’s air attack should feast on this untested secondary. On the flip side, North Texas’ offense is a big step up from the Idaho (FCS) and San Diego State (119th in scoring in 2024) offenses WSU faced in the first two weeks of the season. North Texas’ 42.0 points per game this season (32nd in FBS) will test WSU’s pass defense (124th passing YPG allowed in 2024). With both teams’ pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive vulnerabilities, this game gets into the 60’s rather easily.

#315/316 ASA PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points - Northern Illinois vs Maryland, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - These 2 both played in low scoring games last week with NIU topping Holy Cross 19-17 and Maryland beating FAU 39-7.  Despite the low scoring finals, a closer look reveals both of those games were higher scoring than they actually should have been.  NIU and HC scored only 22 offensive points in their game as 2 TD’s were scored via kickoff returns.  In the FAU vs Maryland game, the Terps scored on a pick 6 and their offense was set up time and again in great position as the Owls had 6 turnovers.  Both defenses played well with NIU holding Holy Cross to 4.0 YPP and the Terps held Florida Atlantic to 3.7 YPP.  Both offenses were held to under 5.0 YPP vs defenses that simply aren’t projected to be very good.  FAU was 117th in total defense last year and Holy Cross is an FCS team that held the Huskies to only 4.1 YPP last week.  We don’t have high level, experienced QB’s in this game to help put up big points.  Maryland QB Washington is a true freshman with 1 game under his belt.  NIU QB Holst came into this season with less than 600 career passing yards.  NIU plays very slow and loves to run the ball which eats clock.  They only had 2 games vs FBS opponents last year that reached 50 total points.  The Huskies ran it 46 times last week with only 24 pass attempts.  They will try and slow this game to a crawl, keep it close and let their very good defense (13th nationally last year in PPG allowed) be the focus.  Under is the play here.

#151/152 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points - Nebraska vs. Cincinnati (@ KC neutral field), Thursday at 9 PM ET - There are a handful of games each year that you see early on and hold your breath that someone else doesn’t see what you see, and a line moves against you. We don’t see how Vegas has set an O/U line of 51+ points on this game. Nebraska became very pedestrian late in the season and played a ball-controlled style that dominated time of possession. In the final 8-games of the season the Huskers averaged just 19ppg, scoring 20 or less in seven games. Nebraska finished the season 103rd in scoring at 23.5ppg while averaging only 4.9 yards per play (106th). They have some returning talent on the offensive line along with QB Raiola, but the verdict is still out on the running game. Last season the Cornhuskers ranked 95th in rushing at 127.3ypg. The Bearcats offense was very similar to the Huskers in terms of pace and time of possession. Cincinnati was one of the league's leaders in time of possession in the Big 12 and was 86th in seconds per play. Cincinnati averaged 5.6 yards per play offensively and 399 total yards per game which ranked 48th. The Bearcats offense sputtered much like Nebraska’s in the second half of the season last year with 7 straight games of 24 or less points. We haven’t even mentioned the defenses yet. The Huskers allowed 20.8ppg a year ago (20th), Cincinnati allowed 25ppg (57th) on 15.2 yards per point (37th). Combined these two teams were 8-16-1 UNDER in 2024. In non-conference games they were a combined 1-5 UNDER last year. Last year games involving Nebraska averaged 43ppg, UC’s averaged 49.8. The bet here is UNDER.

#153/154 ASA PLAY ON Under 43.5 Points – Buffalo vs Minnesota, Thursday at 8 PM ET -  The 2 defenses are the strength of both teams, especially early in the season with both finishing in the top 30 nationally in total defense last season.  Minnesota’s defense line will be very experienced and solid this year and Buffalo brings back 8 of their top 10 defensive players in minutes played from last season.  The Bulls are strong up front on the defensive line and they are facing a Minnesota O Line that lost 4 of their top 6 players.  Offensively Buffalo ranked 95th last year (total offense) and they must replace a number of key contributors including QB.  Roberson transferred in from Kansas State where he only played a few snaps.  A year prior he started a number of games for UConn and has completed only 56% of his career passes.  Minnesota will start Lindsey at QB and he has just 5 career pass attempts.  The Gophers were one of the slowest paced teams in the country last year (we expect the same in 2025) but they passed a lot (53% pass rate).  We expect a shift back to the run game this year (similar to their 40% pass rate in 2023) with RB Taylor, one of the best in the country, and an inexperienced QB.  The Gophers allowed just 16.5 PPG at home last season and only 2 of their 7 home tilts topped 48 points.  Defenses dominate here and we’re on the Under.

#305/306 ASA play on OVER 50.5 Iowa State vs. Kansas State, 12PM ET Saturday, Aug 23rd - Iowa State enters the 2025-26 season with a strong foundation, led by quarterback Rocco Becht, a veteran offensive line, and a healthier defense featuring Caleb Bacon. ISU will feature a strong running game with a dynamic duo of Hansen and Sama. Transfers like WR Chase Sowell, WR Xavier Townsend, can fill the void at the wideout position. DE Tamatoa McDonough is expected to fill a critical gap on the defensive line. The Cyclones return a significant number of starters from their 2024 roster, with at least 14 starters coming back under the guidance of head coach Matt Campbell. Kansas State is well coached under Klieman and also have solid returning talent and a few key transfers. KSU’s starting QB Johnson returns after throwing for over 2,700 yards and 25 TD’s a year ago. They have solid depth at the RB position with Giddens and Edwards and added several key transfers at the wideout position. Iowa State averaged 5.7 Yards per Play a year ago, 52nd in the nation, K-State averaged 6.4YPPL which was 11th best in the country. Both were above average in terms of Yards per Point and both average 30+PPG in 2024. This O/U number is set lower than our model is projecting so let’s bet OVER.

#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Ohio State vs Oregon, Wednesday at 5 PM ET – ROSE BOWL @ Pasadena, CA - When these 2 met in September, the total was set at 54.5 and they combined for 63 points (32-31 Oregon). Today’s total is set a bit higher and we think they get into the 60’s again. In the first meeting the 2 combined for almost 1,000 yards and averaged over 7.0 YPP. There could have been more than 63 scored in that game as Oregon missed a FG, got shut out on downs inside the OSU 5 yard line, and OSU ended the game on the Oregon 26 yard line as time expired. The Ducks offenses ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPG, YPP, and scoring at 36 PPG. It was the one offense that Ohio State struggled big time with this season. In their last 11 games, the Ducks scored at least 30 points 10 times including vs OSU and Penn State’s vaunted stop unit. In that game (the Big 10 Championship Game) Oregon scored 45 points 470 yards. Their defense, however, allowed 37 points and Penn State’s offense had over 500 yards. The Oregon defense had solid overall numbers (20th in YPP allowed) but vs the 3 CFP offenses they faced (OSU, PSU, and Boise State), they allowed an average of 34 PPG. The Buckeyes scored 42 points on nearly 500 yards last week vs a high level Tennessee defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Bucks scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season. We think Oregon will struggle to slow the Buckeyes down and same with the OSU defense having trouble with OU’s offense. We see both getting into the 30’s again and this goes Over the Total.

#247/248 ASA PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Iowa State vs Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL in Orlando, FL - Most of the key offensive players on both sides here are playing in this game. Miami QB Ward has stated he’s playing and he will have his full complement of weapons with the possible exception of WR Restrepo who may or may not play. Iowa State’s offense looks to be in the same situation with most if not all of the key contributors playing. That should bode well for scoring in this game as both offenses know how to put points on the board. The Canes lead the nation in total offense, YPP offense, and scoring putting up just over 44 PPG. Iowa State is no slouch averaging just over 30 PPG on the season. Miami’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however 6 of their 8 ACC opponents scored at least 28 points. The only 2 teams in conference play that struggled offensively vs the Canes were Florida State, who ranks 132nd in total offense, and Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in total offense. We expect ISU’s offense to come out with some passion after playing one of the worst games of the season in the Big 12 Championship losing 45-19 vs Arizona State. Prior to scoring just 19 points in that game, the Cyclones had scored at least 28 points in 7 of their previous 8 games. The ISU defense wasn’t great this year ranking 68th in YPP allowed and 102nd at stopping the run. They allowed at least 21 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and this will be the best offense they’ve seen this year as Miami reached at least 40 points 8 times this season. These teams have combined to play 25 games with 16 going Over the total and this smells like a keep up type game offensively. Weather looks good in Orlando and we like the Over here.

#211/212 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Indiana vs Notre Dame, Friday at 8 PM ET - Both defensive units are the best teams on the field in this game. Both are top 10 defense in YPG & YPP & Scoring D. Not only that, the defensive strengths match up very well vs each offense. The Irish want to run the ball and IU has the #1 rush defense in the country allowing just 71 YPG on the season. The Hoosiers offense ranks much higher in passing YPG compared to rushing YPG and the Notre Dame defense ranks #3 in the nation allowing just 157 YPG through the air. The Indiana offense has great scoring numbers putting up 43 PPG, however the 2 best defenses they’ve faced shut them down. Versus Ohio State, the Hoosiers had 15 points on 153 total yards, and versus Michigan they had 20 points on 264 total yards. On the other side, the Notre Dame offense faced very few high level defensive teams. They faced off vs 3 teams that ended the season in the top 30 in total defense. Army, who faced an incredibly weak schedule so their numbers on offense and defense were misleading, Miami OH, wo played in the MAC so same story, and Northern Illinois, who played in the MAC as well. Indiana, who ranks #2 in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed, will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced this season. Both teams are very slow paced with the Irish ranking 108th in seconds per play and Indiana ranking 104th. The weather doesn’t look great in South Bend in Friday night (windchills in the teens and 10+ MPH winds) and we think both teams struggle offensively. Under is the call.

#203/204 ASA PLAY ON Under 48 Points – California vs UNLV, LA Bowl on Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We expect Cal’s offense to struggle in this one vs a underrated UNLV defense. The offense wasn’t great to begin with ranking 82nd in YPP and 82nd in scoring (26 PPG) but that was with QB Mendoza under center. They relied very heavily on him this season as he attempted nearly 400 passes and threw for over 3,000 yards. He won’t play in this game as he’s in the portal and his back up in out as well. That means 3rd string Harris, a transfer from Ohio U who didn’t start there, will start in this game. The Bears topped their season average of 26 PPG only 4 times this season (minus FCS opponents) and 3 of those were vs defenses ranked 97th or lower. And again, that was with Mendoza at QB. UNLV’s defense ranked 36th in YPP allowed and was really good vs the run (16th nationally allowing 109 YPG on the ground) which will put a lot on the shoulders of Harris who is not an accomplished passer. UNLV held 8 opponents to 21 points or less this season including Boise State (who ranks 6th in total offense) in the MWC Championship game. Cal’s defense has been very solid this year and they have been a high level run stopping unit ranking 15th nationally allowing 107 YPG on the ground. That matches up nicely vs UNLV who loves to run the ball averaging 45 rush attempts per game (7th most in the country). This will be one of the top defenses UNLV has faced and we think they’ll struggle. Rebel head coach Odom is already off to Purdue and OC Marion is a hot commodity, including being a lead candidate for the Sacramento State head job, and the distractions for him during this bowl season have been real. The last time these 2 met in 2022 the final score was 20-14 and we think the defenses rule again. Under is the call.

#201/202 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Western Kentucky vs James Madison, Boca Raton Bowl on Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Western Kentucky has multiple players in the transfer portal including 10 starters. Some of these players will play and some won’t. Starting QB Veltkamp will transfer but he is going to play in this game. However, even with Veltkamp playing down the stretch of the regular season, the Hilltopper offense fell off a cliff. The last 4 games of the season this offense scored 7, 21, 19 and 12 points. Veltkamp had only 4 TD’s during that stretch with 3 interceptions with WKU averaging just 309 YPG. Now this offense, which will most likely be shorthanded, faced a JMU defense that ranks 25th in total defense and 16th in YPP allowed. The Hilltoppers only faced 3 defenses this season that ended the year ranked in the top 50 in total defense and they averaged 12.6 PPG in those games. While we think James Madison’s defense will be tough to crack here, the Dukes offense will struggle. They will be starting their 3rd string QB Billy Atkins in this game who has thrown 1 pass the entire season. In his 4 year career at JMU, Atkins has completed only 29 passes and his career completion percentage is just 49%. We look for the James Madison offense to rely heavily on the run here (28th in the country in carries per game) which should shorten this game eating clock. The WKU defense ranks 11th nationally vs the pass so the obvious game plan for the Dukes is ground and pound. The Hilltopper didn’t have great total defense numbers but they were very good at keep teams off the scoreboard. They held 10 of their 13 opponents to 21 points or less. The weather doesn’t look great in Boca Raton with rain and 10+ MPH winds expected. Take the Under here.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Nebraska vs Iowa, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The weather will be cold in Iowa City on Friday night (temps in the low 20’s at kickoff) but very light winds so the offenses should be able to use their full arsenal both on the ground and through the air. Iowa was historically an Under team, however this year that has changed dramatically. The Hawkeyes 9-2 to the Over this season and they are averaging 29 PPG which is up from 15 PPG last season. At home they’ve put up at least 40 points (by themselves) 4 times including 3 Big 10 games. They are facing a Nebraska defense that hasn’t been great down the stretch. Last week they allowed 25 points to Wisconsin but it could have been worse as the Badgers averaged 7.4 YPP in that game. The Huskers have allowed at least 6.0 YPP in 4 straight games and over their last 5 games they’ve allowed an average of 31 PPG. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers played outstanding last week with 44 points on almost 500 yards vs a Wisconsin defense that allowed 16 points to Oregon a week earlier. New OC Dana Holgersen took over just a few weeks ago and their offense is taking shape nicely as he and the players get accustomed to what needs to be done. QB Railoa has really started to play well under Holgorsen completing over 70% of his passes in each of the last 2 games for nearly 500 yards through the air. A huge weight was lifted off Nebraska’s shoulders last week as their win over Wisconsin got them to bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. They can play loose here and be aggressive on offense. These to Big 10 rivals have gotten to at least 41 points in 10 of their last 11 meetings with the only exception being last year when Iowa had the worst offense in the nation (both total offense and scoring) and the total was set at 25 points. We look for both teams to get to at least 20 here which puts it Over the total.

#181/182 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER 44.5 Points - Air Force at Nevada, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This O/U number reflects the Air Force team we saw early in the season that struggled to move the football offensively and put points on the board. AF scored 7 or less points in 3 of their first five games and couldn’t get their vaunted running game going. They’ve made a QB change and the offense has taken off the last two weeks against Fresno State and Oregon State. Against Fresno, who ranks 14th in YPP defense, they ran it for 344 total yards at 4.3 yards per carry and put up 38-points. Last week against OSU they amassed 409 total yards and 28-points. This Air Force offense will face limited resistance from a Wolfpack D that is 96th in rushing yards allowed per game and 102nd in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. Nevada should put up points in this game too and they rank 45th in rushing yards per game at 178.5 and yards per rush at 4.8 per carry. Air Force is 89th in rushing yards allowed per game and 101st in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. The Wolfpack have put up 21-points in recent conference games against Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State who all rank significantly higher than Air Force defensively. These two teams did not meet last season but the two prior they scored 68 and 80-points. This game won’t get to those numbers but it will get over 45-total points.

#363/364 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Over 57.5 Points - Kansas vs BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We were on Kansas last week and mentioned they are playing very well right now especially on offense. They proceeded to put up 45 points on 532 yards vs a solid ISU defense. They’ve really kicked it in gear on that side of the ball averaging 36 PPG over their last 4 games. Their lowest point total during that stretch was 27 vs KSU but had over 400 yards of offense so that point total should have been higher. In their last 4 games KU has averaged 452 YPG on 7.2 YPP. Impressive to say the least. The problem with the Jayhawks is their defense. Last week they led big vs ISU (38-13 in the 3rd quarter) but the KU defense let the Cyclones score 3 TD’s in the final 20:00 minutes of game time. ISU averaged over 7.0 YPP in the game. KU’s defense has allowed at least 29 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only exception being Houston who ranks 127th in total offense. BYU’s offense wasn’t great last week vs a solid Utah defense (22 points) but prior to that they had scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games. In last week’s game they were playing a Utah offense that can’t score and was down to their 3rd string QB so BYU wasn’t pushed to score a bunch of points (BYU won 22-21). The Cougars average 34 PPG on the season ranking them in the top 30 nationally. These teams have combined to go 12-6 to the Over this year with BYU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 5 and KU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last year they met in Kansas and put up 65 total points with the total set at 56.5. Weather looks perfect in Provo on Saturday night with temps in the mid 30’s but almost no wind. This one is a shootout and we like the Over.

#317/318 ASA PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points – Wyoming vs Colorado State, Friday at 8 PM ET - The season long stats for Wyoming’s offense aren’t impressive but you can throw out the first month of the season because this team is moving the ball and putting points on the board as of late. The Cowboys have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 28 PPG during that 5 game stretch. That success should continue vs a CSU defense that ranks 104th in total defense. We expect the Rams to also put up solid offensive numbers vs a Wyoming defense that also ranks outside the top 100 (115th) in total defense this season. CSU’s offense has scored at least 31 points in 3 of their last 5 games and they’ve reached at least 21 points in 6 of their last 8 games, most of those vs teams with better defenses than this Wyoming squad. CSU has reached at least 55 total points in 3 of their last 5 games and Wyoming games have gotten to at least 50 points in 4 of their last 5. With 2 defenses ranked outside the top 100 and good weather on tap (temps in the 30’s but almost no wind) these teams should fare well offensively. Both are easily capable of topping 21 points which should get us to this Over.

#385/386 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points Wyoming vs New Mexico, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total due to recent results (last weekend) from these 2 teams. This total sits at 60 to 61 points as of this writing on Friday and our power ratings say this total should be 66. NM games are averaging 73.5 total points and that includes last week’s game where they lost to CSU 17-6. That game was very misleading as the Lobos put up over 450 yards on 6.0 YPP but had 4 turnovers. 3 of those turnovers were inside CSU territory taking away potential points for the Lobos. The 2 teams combined for almost 800 yards and both averaged 6.0 YPP which should result in a much higher scoring game. Prior to last week’s game New Mexico had scored at least 50 points in 3 straight games. They rank in the top 10 nationally in total offense and they play fast (14th nationally in offensive plays run per game). They should have big time success vs this Wyoming defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rush defense, AND pass defense. The Wyoming offense has poor overall numbers this season, but they are definitely trending up. After not topping 17 points in any of their first 4 games, the Cowboys have now reached at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week vs a Utah State defense that ranks almost identical to this New Mexico defense (those teams rank 132nd and 131st in total defense), Wyoming put up almost 500 yards on 6.4 YPP. They scored 25 points but it should have been more as they settled for 4 FG’s (6 total FG’s in the game between the 2 teams) and fumbled deep inside USU territory. The Cowboys were one of the slower paced teams in the country last year but under their new regime they are playing much faster this season. The weather looks perfect in Albuquerque on Saturday afternoon with temps on the 60’s and very little wind. These teams have combined to play 16 games this season and 11 of those have gone Over the total. Both defenses rank outside the top 100 in pretty much every key category as we mentioned. Last year these 2 combined to score 61 points, yet both defenses had much better numbers than this year’s stop units. The projected score on this game based on the point spread (NM -7 to -8 range) is New Mexico 34.5, Wyoming 26.5. We’re confident both top those projected totals in this game. Over is the play.

#315/316 ASA PLAY ON Under 48.5 Points - Georgia State vs UConn, Friday at 7 PM ET - UConn’s defense is locked in right now allowing a total of 70 points over their last 5 games (14 PPG).  They rank 17th nationally in YPP allowed and they’ve allowed more than 23 points only once this season.  That defensive success shouldn’t change here vs a Georgia State offense that is averaging only 22 PPG (107th nationally).  The Panthers have topped 21 points only twice this season vs FBS opponents which isn’t overly impressive as 4 of the 6 FBS defenses they’ve faced rank below 100th in total defense.  This will be the best defense Georgia State (76th in total offense) has faced this season. On the other side of the ball, UConn has struggled offensively scoring 22, 20, and 17 points (offensive points) over their last 3 games.  They are averaging just 328 YPG in their last 3 that includes 2 opponents whose defense ranks outside the top 90.  The Huskies last 3 games have averaged 37 total points and with windy weather expected on Friday night, we look for a lower scoring game.  Under is the call.

#139/140 ASA PLAY ON OVER 60.5 Points – Kent State vs Western Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Both offenses should have lots of success here. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Kent State ranks dead last in total defense allowing well over 500 YPG and WMU is much better ranking 127th giving up over 450 YPG. Kent has played 6 games this season vs FBS opponents and they’ve allowed at least 37 points in 5 of those games. The only team that didn’t reach that mark was BG last week, who had 27 points but only punted 3 times in 12 offensive possessions (missed FG & shut out on downs a few times). If we subtract their game vs FCS St Francis, the Golden Flashes have allowed 49.7 PPG (dead last in the NCAA). How are they going to slow down this WMU offense who is averaging 42 PPG in conference play (averaging 31.4 PPG overall)? Last week the Broncos put up 48 points and almost 500 yards on a Buffalo defense that was allowing 24.6 PPG entering the game. WMU’s defense, on the other hand, was terrible. The Bulls lit them up for 41 points and 550 total yards. That was a Buffalo offense that ranked 133rd nationally (out of 134 teams) entering the game averaging 244 YPG. Kent’s offensive numbers aren’t good overall this season, however those numbers are very misleading because they were shutout by Tennessee & Penn State, 2 of the top defenses in the nation. In MAC play, this Kent offense has looked solid averaging 25 PPG. They struggled last week vs Bowling Green, the top defense in the MAC and top 30 nationally, but prior to that they scored 30+ on Ball State and EMU. Weather looks good in Kalamazoo on Saturday with decent temps and light winds. These teams have met 5 times since 2012 and they’ve averaged more than 66 total points in those games. Take the Over.

#113/114 ASA PLAY ON Under 54.5 Points – Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion at 7 PM ET - These 2 defenses don’t have great season long stats, but they’ve been playing lights out as of late.  ODU has held each of their last 2 opponents to 14 points and the only 2 teams that have topped 23 points on this defense are Virginia Tech and Coastal Carolina.  Last week’s defensive performance vs Texas State was very impressive holding the Bobcats to 14 points (they average 35 PPG – 20th nationally) on just 4.9 YPP (they average 6.4 YPP – 20th nationally).  Georgia Southern has held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 23 points or less.  The only team since September 1st that has topped 23 points on this Panther defense is Ole Miss, one of the best offensive teams in the country.  Last week they completely shut down a James Madison team holding them to 14 points (they average 39 PPG – 10th nationally) on 253 total years (they average 436 YPG – 26th nationally).  Both of these offenses rank outside the top 100 in YPP so we’re not expecting either defense to slow up in this one.  The tempo stats for the season have both of these teams on the top 40 in seconds per play, however both have really slowed their pace over the last few games with both ranking outside the top 40 over the last 3 games.  The Sun Belt teams have faced each other twice, both games in the last 2 seasons, and both went under totaling 37 and 51 points.  Under is the call on Thursday.   

#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 57 Points – Georgia vs Texas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We anticipate both teams getting to at least 30 points here so we’ll roll with the Over. Texas has now scored at least 30 points in 18 of their last 20 games while UGA has put up at least 30 on the scoreboard in 20 of their last 24 games. Both offenses are in the top 20 in YPP and they both love air it out with UGA ranking 9th nationally in YPG passing and Texas ranking 11th. The QB’s in this one are high level with UGA’s Beck and the Horn’s Ewers ranking as 2 of the top 5 signal callers in next year’s draft. Defensively Georgia has fallen off rather drastically from recent editions. The Dogs currently rank 39th in total defense and 67th in YPP allowed (FBS opponents only). They have already allowed 2 opponents to top 30 points this season including last weekend vs a Mississippi State offense that entered the game ranked 99th in scoring at just 20 PPG (they put up 31 on UGA). Prior to this season, the Bulldog defense had allowed only 2 opponents to top 30 points since the start of the 2021 season. Quite a drastic drop off this year. They allowed 41 @ Alabama this season and the Texas offense is better than the Tide so the Horns should have plenty of success here. The Longhorn defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense but they’ve played NOBODY with an offensive pulse this season. The best offense they’ve faced this far is UTSA (ranked 71st in total offense) and the average rating of the offenses they’ve faced is 100th (total offense). This spot is very similar to last weekend when Ohio State entered their game vs Oregon as the #1 ranked defense nationally but had played a very weak schedule of offenses as well (98th for an average). The Ducks put up 30+ points on that #1 defense last week. We see a similar outcome here. Weather looks perfect in Austin on Saturday night and this is a have to “keep up” offensively game in our opinion. High scoring.

#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We think both teams have a great shot at reaching 30 points so our call is the Over in this one.  WKY is averaging 26 PPG on the season but they were shutout in week 1 vs Alabama so that number is a bit misleading.  If you take away the Bama game, the Hilltoppers are averaging 34 PPG.  They love to pass the ball (21st in pass attempts per game) and they average 280 YPG through the air which plays directly into SHSU’s defensive weakness.  The Bearkats are allowing over 20 completions per game (102nd) and while their overall passing yardage allowed isn’t terrible (64th), they’ve faced a very weak set of passing offenses to date.  The only 2 passing offenses they’ve encountered that currently rank inside the top 70 in passing YPG are Texas State, who threw for 326 yards, and Hawaii, who threw for 252 yards.  WKY’s QB Veltkamp is having a very solid season completing 70% of his passes with nearly 1,200 yards through the air.  He should pile up solid numbers here.  Sam Houston’s offense has been in a tear.  They have scored at least 31 points in 5 of their 6 games this season.  They are one of the best running teams in the nation (12th in rushing YPG & 5th in rushing attempts per game) and should do well here vs a Western defense that is allowing 162 YPG rushing (96th).  WKY’s defense is also allowing 6.0 YPP on the year which ranks them 108th in that category.  The Hilltoppers rank in the top 35 in tempo (seconds per play) and SHSU ranks in the top half of college football in that stat.  The weather looks perfect in Huntsville, TX for this one with temps in the 60’s and light winds at game time.  Lots of points expected and we’ll grab the Over.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 55 Points – Troy vs South Alabama, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - This Sun Belt rivalry has been a low scoring series and we don’t see that changing tonight.  Over the last decade these 2 have a record of 7-2-1 to the Under with the average total points scored just 40.  The last time these 2 topped tonight’s total (currently 55) was back in 2013, which is actually the only time this game has topped 55 points.  Troy’s offense lost pretty much everyone from last year and they have struggled to say the least.  They rank 110th in total offense and are averaging only 20 PPG (112th).  If we subtract their game vs FCS Florida A&M, the Trojans have not topped 26 points in any game this season.  South Alabama’s defense doesn’t have great numbers, however much of that is because of 2 games vs LSU where they allowed 42 points and North Texas (5th nationally in total offense) where they allowed 52 points.  In their other games the Jaguars have allowed 14, 16, 18, and 27 points.  South Alabama’s offense is solid (32nd in total offense) but if we subtract their game vs FCS Northwestern State where they scored 87, yes 87 points, the Jags are averaging just 26 PPG.  Troy loves to play a slow paced game (outside the top 100 in seconds per play) and they know they need to run the ball and keep this one low scoring to have a chance.  South Alabama is not a fast paced team (56th in tempo) so we don’t expect many offensive possessions in this game.  Under is the call.  

#115/116 ASA PLAY ON Over 45.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern’s pass defense is one of the worst in the nation (110th) and we expect them to get torched here by Maryland’s passing game which ranks 17th averaging over 300 YPG through the air.  Last week the Cats faced Indiana in Evanston in windy conditions right on Lake Michigan (NW temporary stadium is right on the lake) and despite those conditions the Hoosiers put up 41 points and over 300 yards passing.  The Terps offense ranks in the top 35 averaging 452 YPG and they have not been held below 24 points this season (they average 33 PPG).  NW starting QB Lausch has made some real noticeable progress since taking over for previous starter Wright a few weeks ago.  Lausch struggled in his first road start vs Washington (who has a top 10 defense) but looked really good last week vs the Hoosiers.  In that game Lausch threw for 243 yards and 2 TD’s in less than ideal conditions (windy).  NW put up 24 points in that loss.  We expect Lausch to have more success on Friday evening vs a Maryland defense that ranks 120th defending the pass allowing 270 YPG.  When these 2 met last year the total was set in the high 40’s and they flew over the total with 60 points.  These teams have faced off 4 times since Maryland joined the Big 10 and all 4 have totaled at least 46 points with an average of 55 total points.  The weather looks perfect in College Park on Friday night with temps in the low 60’s and light winds.  Over is the call.  

#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 49.5 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Louisiana Tech, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here in this CUSA battle.  MTSU ranks 98th in YPP on offense while La Tech ranks 119th.  They average 16 PPG and 19 PPG respectively. They only game in which MTSU topped 21 points was vs FCS Tennessee Tech and even in that game the Blue Raiders tallied only 328 total yards.  In this match up, they are facing a very solid La Tech defense that ranks 30th nationally in total defense and 23rd in YPP allowed at just 4.5.  The only team that topped 20 points vs this LT defense this season (in regulation) was NC State and even in that game the Wolfpack only had 23 offensive points (they scored a defensive TD for 30 points).  The Bulldogs have held every opponent to under their season PPG average this year including NC State if you subtract the defensive TD by the Wolfpack.  Offensively this Tech team is not good.  The only game in which they topped 325 total yards was vs FCS Nicholls State and in that game they only scored 25 points.  They have not topped 20 points in any of their games vs FBS opponents this season.  Last week, they faced an FIU defense that ranks outside the top 100 and the Bulldogs only put up 17 points (17-10 win).  MTSU’s defense ranks very low as well, however La Tech has struggled against every defense they’ve faced, good or bad.  The MTSU defense actually has a bit of momentum as well holding a potent Memphis offense to 24 points in their most recent game.  We don’t think either team gets into the mid 20’s here so Under is the play.    

#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Over 58 Points – New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Two terrible defenses in this game will lead to a higher scoring game. These 2 rank 111th and 126th in total defense and 120th and 121st in scoring defense. The Jax State offense is rolling right now and should have their way vs this NMSU defense 30+ points in every game this season (minus their one FCS opponent). In their most recent game, the Aggies gave up 50 points and almost 600 yards to arch rival New Mexico. JSU has put up 141 points in their last 3 games alone (47 PPG) and they averaged over 500 YPG in those games. That shouldn’t change on Wednesday vs one of the worst defensive teams in the country. New Mexico State should also have offensive success in this game. Their offensive numbers aren’t great this season (19.6 PPG) but they’ve only faced one defense this season outside the top 100 (same range as JSU) and the Aggies put up 40 points in that game vs New Mexico. They also put up 24 points vs Liberty who has a top 35 defense. The Aggies strength on offense is their running game (155 YPG rushing) and that plays directly into JSU’s defensive weakness as they rank 118th defending the run. Jacksonville State plays as a very fast pace (9th in seconds per play) and NMSU is in the top half of the country in tempo. We should get plenty of offensive snaps in this game and with poor defensive teams, we’ll call for the Over in this game.

#365/366 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points – Arkansas vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Offenses should dominate in this one on a hot day in Auburn with very little wind expected.  Both these 2 SEC teams rank in the top 35 in YPP offense this season with each putting up at least 6.3 YPP.  They also both like to play fast with Arkansas running a play every 23 seconds (16th fastest) and Auburn running a play every 25 seconds (31st).  The Tigers had 1 stinker offensively this year vs a Cal defense that has allowed less than 10 PPG so far this season.  In their other 2 games Auburn has scored 73 & 45 points.  The Arkansas defense has looked susceptible giving up 66 points combined in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma State and UAB.  Auburn QB Brown made his first start last Saturday and looked solid throwing for 235 yards and 4 TD’s leading the Tigers to 500+ total yards and 45 points.  The Razorbacks offense has looked really good all season under the direction of new starting QB Green (transfer from Boise State).  They have scored 138 points in 3 games while averaging 587 total yards per game.  Both teams have solid QB’s and the weakness of each defense is stopping the pass (85th & 98th in pass defense) so we look for lots of success through the air.  When these 2 teams get together, the offenses have thrived putting up more than 56 total points (today’s posted total) in 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Let’s play Over in this one.

#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points - Illinois vs Nebraska, Friday at 8 PM ET - It’s the start of Big 10 play for these familiar foes and we look for a low scoring, grinder in Lincoln.  The last 2 seasons these rivals have generated 35 and 27 total points.  Both defenses are very good this season with Nebraska allowing a total of 20 points combined in their 3 games this year while Illinois has allowed 26 combined points in their 3 games.  They each shutdown the good offenses they’ve faced this season with Nebraska giving up just 10 points on 260 yards vs Colorado while Illinois gave up 17 points on 327 yards vs Kansas.  Nebraska looks improved offensively, however they’ve faced some suspect defenses (UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa).  Despite that, the Huskers rank just 56th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In their game vs the Buffs, who do not have a good defense, the Huskers scored 21 offensive points (they had a pick 6 for their 28 points) and just 334 yards.  Freshman QB Raiola has been solid but he now faces a legit defense in his first Big 10 game.  Illinois is in the same boat offensively facing some not so great defensive teams (Eastern Illinois, Kansas, and Central Michigan).  Despite that, the Illini only rank 74th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In one legit game vs Kansas, the Illini scored 16 offensive points (they had a pick 6 to get to 23 points), and they did not reach 300 total yards.  Both offenses are very slow paced with Illinois ranking 121st in seconds per play and Nebraska 115th.  Lots of defense in this one and we grab the Under.

#209/210 ASA PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Notre Dame vs Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Defenses should dominate here especially in the trenches.  Notre Dame and A&M have veteran defensive lines and the weak spot of each opposing offense in on the line.  Notre Dame is banged up on the offensive line and will not start a single upper classmen.  Two freshmen will start on the left side of the line and the total number of career college starts for this group is less than 10!  They are facing a veteran A&M defensive line that most have ranked in the top 5 nationally.  New Irish QB Leonard will be running for his life on Saturday and we don’t see any help from Notre Dame’s rushing attack.  Last year’s leading rusher Estime (1,300 yards) is gone and his “green” offensive line will be facing a defense that finished in the top 15 in rushing YPG and YPC allowed.  On the other side, A&M’s offense will also have problems here vs an Irish defense we have rated in the top 10 entering the season.  They also have a top 10 defensive line facing an Aggie offensive front that struggled last season and has 3 new starters this year.  A&M starting QB Wiegman was injured early last season and has only started 8 games in his career.  Both offenses have new OC’s so each are implementing a new system which can take some time to perfect.  The head coaches in this game, Elko for A&M and Freeman for ND, are both defensive minded.  From camp reports both defenses are well ahead of the offenses coming into this game and we look for low scoring, grinder here.  Take the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 56.5 Western Michigan at Wisconsin, 9 PM ET - The number on this game opened slightly higher at 56.5 and has since moved down in some books to a current line of 56. That spread on this game is 24 which means the oddsmakers are projecting Wisconsin to score 40 and Western Michigan 16. We don’t think either team gets to that number based on last season’s results. Wisconsin returns 71% of their defensive production from a unit last season that allowed 344YPG (35th), 5.0YPP (26th) and 20.2PPG (19th). This Badgers defense held 7 opponents to 17 or less points in 2023. Offensively the Badgers will rely on their running game which averaged 4.6YPR last season (38th) and 160RYPG (60th). Wisconsin had the 22nd rated 3rd down conversion percentage in college football last season which means extended drives for the Badgers offense. Wisconsin did not score 40+ points in a game last season and averaged 23.5PPG (87th) and lacked big plays with an offense that averaged 5.2YPP (79th). UW averaged just 6.1YPP passing which ranked 117th. Western Michigan returns 7 starters from last season’s defense and added a few power conference transfers. This Bronco defense was not very good a season ago, ranking 100th or worse in several key categories, but should be improved this season with the returning experience. Offensively we don’t see this Bronco putting up many points in this opener. WMU was 92nd in scoring a year ago at 22.6PPG, 107th in YPP at 4.8 and lacked explosiveness either running or passing. Clearly the dominant team in this matchup is the Badgers and we are betting their 5-1 home Under streak continues here.

ASA play on UNDER 55.5 SMU at Nevada, Saturday, 8 PM ET - Nevada won just 2 games a season ago and has a futures market of 2.5 wins this season. That alone tells us just how bad this team will be again in 2024. The Wolfpack have many deficiencies including an offense that averaged just 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th) last season. They return starting QB Lewis but that’s not a great thing considering he threw for just 1,313 yards last season with 2 TD’s to 6 INT’s and had a passer rating of 33.3. The Wolfpack will rely on their running game with two returning starters in the backfield. This Nevada offense produced 14 or less points in 6 games a year ago and our projections have them scoring around that number here. SMU has 8 starters returning on offense that scored 36.4PPG a year ago (10th) and averaged 446YPG (18th). But they weren’t necessarily a big play offense ranking 37th in Yards Per Play at 6.0. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th) and will use their advantage in the trenches against a Wolfpack defense that had problems stopping the run a year ago. SMU allowed just 19.2PPG a season ago while allowing just 4.5YPP (7th). Nevada will be better defensively with new coach Jeff Choate, but the Pack will struggle to score. SMU has no reason to run the score up late in this game and will look to stay healthy. It all adds up to an UNDER bet.

#305/306 ASA PLAY ON Under 55.5 Points – Florida State vs Georgia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We expect both offenses to run the ball a lot in this game which will keep the clock running and shorten the game.  FSU averaged 32.8 PPG last season but we expect a decent drop off this year, especially early in the season.  That’s because the Noles lost nearly all of their production from last year and will rely on transfers at the skill positions learning a new system.  Their new QB is DJ Uiagalelei who had previous stops at Clemson and Oregon State.  He’s not overly accurate, completing only 57% of his passes last year which ranked him outside the top 90.  He’s working with 2 transfer receivers from Alabama and LSU who logged very little time last season.  HC Norvell has said he wants to rely on the running game more this season and we expect that here.  Georgia Tech loves to run the ball.  They led the ACC in rushing last season and they averaged nearly 40 carries per game.  They return 4 starters on the offensive line, their mobile QB King is back and their top RB returns.  More of the same this year for Tech as they keep it on the ground.  They’ll be facing an FSU defense that allowed less than 20 PPG a year ago and while they did lose some key defenders, they’ve recruited very well (and some key transfer portal additions on defense) so we don’t look for much of a drop off on that side of the ball.  Tech’s defense was not good a year ago.  They did upgrade at defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci from Duke who had the Blue Devils in the top 20 in scoring defense last year.  This game is in Ireland and the long travel hasn’t helped the offenses in past games played here.  In fact, there have been 4 games played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin and the average points scored in those games has been 48.8.  Under is our lean on Saturday.  

#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Michigan vs Alabama, Monday at 5 PM ET - Weather looks perfect for scoring here with temps in the 60’s, no precipitation and light winds. We look for both offenses to have solid success in this game. Bama’s offense has been simply outstanding down the stretch averaging 42 PPG and 453 YPG over their last 5 games following their bye week. They are 7-1-1 to the Over in their last 9 games. Since benching QB Milroe in the USF game and then bringing him back the following week, the Crimson Tide have scored at least 24 points in every game (10 straight). In fact, they’ve been held under 24 just once this season and that was @ USF with Milroe on the bench. They averaged 35 PPG on the season and after some early season struggles they’ve morphed into one of the better offensive teams in the country. Michigan’s defense has great numbers for sure. But who have the played that has a high level offense? The Wolverines have faced a grand total of ONE offense currently ranked in the top 40 and that was vs Ohio State who barely ranked inside the top 40 (37th) and the Bucks scored 24 points in that game. A whopping 8 of Michigan’s 13 opponents ended the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. They were held under 30 by Iowa (26 points scored) and Penn State (24 points scored) who are both top 5 defensive teams nationally. Last year’s semi final games were both very high scoring totaling 96 and 83 points. Since the 2017/18 season, there have been 12 semi final games and 9 of those have reached at least 45 points (today’s total) with the average points scored in those games being 64 total points. We project both teams to get to at least 21 points which nearly puts us at this number already. Easy Over here in the Michigan vs Alabama game.

#275/276 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 36 Points – Iowa vs Tennessee, Monday at 1 PM ET - We don’t see either of these teams getting to 20 points as we anticipate a full blown defensive battle. We know how poor Iowa’s offense has performed this season. They rank dead last in the nation in total offense average 240 YPG and put up only 16 PPG. They scored more than 15 points only once in their last 7 games and were shutout in the Big 10 Championship game vs Michigan. The Vols have some opt outs on both sides of the ball, but their defense is deep and talented. They finished in the top 15 nationally allowing opponents only 3.2 YPC which means Iowa will probably have to try and find success through the air which we don’t anticipate happening. The Hawkeyes finished 130th in passing YPG (123 YPG) and QB Hill, who took over after starter McNamara was injured, completed less than 50% of his passes and had only 5 TD’s in his 9 starts. Iowa’s defense, on the other hand, is outstanding. They finished in the top 5 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense (13 PPG). Even vs a high powered Michigan offense in the Big 10 Title game they held the Wolverines to 13 first downs and 213 total yards. The Tennessee offense wasn’t nearly as potent as it was last season (41st in scoring after finishing #1 in the nation last year) and they will be without a number of key components including starting QB Milton. Starting at QB in this game will be true freshman Iamaleava who only attempted 26 passes this season all in mop up duty blowouts vs poor teams. We don’t see him having much success vs this Iowa defense meaning Tennessee will need a big day on the ground vs the Hawkeye defense that allowed 3.0 YPC (4th nationally). Defenses dominate this one and Under is the play.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis.

#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total

#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game.

#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner.