Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-15 | Central Michigan -10 v. Kent State | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan -10 over Kent State - Wednesday at 8:00 PM on ESPN2 CMU still has a lot to play for as they come in at 5-5 and most likely have to win here and at home vs Eastern Michigan to get to a bowl game. Our opinion is Central Michigan is better than their .500 record might indicate. Their 5 losses came against very good competition. The Chippewas losses came at the hands of Oklahoma State by 13 (OSU still undefeated), Syracuse by 3 in OT (CMU outgained the Orange by almost 200 yds), Michigan State by 20 (game was much closer than score & CMU actually outgained MSU), Toledo by 5 points (one of top teams in MAC), and Western Michigan by 2 (one of top teams in MAC). Kent has officially been eliminated from Bowl consideration with their 27-0 loss @ Ohio a week ago. Kent has been outscored 93-17 in their last 3 games (all losses) and outgained by a combined 737 yards in those games. The Flashes are decent on defense but they can’t score. They have scored a TOTAL of 59 points in MAC play (9.8 PPG). They have been outscored by almost 100 points in MAC play this year. The Flashes average almost 10 points less than the next worst scoring team in the conference and they average nearly 100 yards less than the next worst total offense in the league. CMU averages 30 PPG in MAC play and almost 400 YPG. The Chippewas are the much better team and they have an offense that can put points on the board. Kent won’t be able to keep up. Lay it. |
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11-16-15 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 46 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Houston @ Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Houston is the fastest paced offense in the NFL, even faster than Philly. They average 74 plays per game (Eagles are 2nd at 70) and run a play every 23 seconds. That also plays right into the Bengal’s offense as Cincy will run more plays as well. Getting to run more plays means more points for Cincy. The Bengals already average 28 PPG and they are the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL. Playing in a fast paced game vs a lower tier defense gives us a reason to project that the Bengals will top their season average tonight, probably getting into the 30’s. Houston’s offense isn’t great but they do run a lot of plays (as we stated) and they have scored 20 or more points in 5 straight games. The weather looks perfect tonight and If Houston can get to 20 again tonight, we think they will, this game should go OVER this posted total of 46. |
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11-15-15 | Jaguars v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
We like OVER in the Jacksonville @ Baltimore game (1PM ET kickoff). We expect plenty of points in this one as the Jags games are averaging just under 56 total points scored their last three games while Baltimore is averaging 48PPG in that same time frame. Jacksonville games have ended with 51 or more total points scored in 5 of their last six and include 3 games with 65+ points being scored. Neither team gets stops on 3rd downs (Jags 29th, Ravens 32nd) which translates to more scoring opportunities for opponents. Both teams also like to throw the football and we all know that more passing means more clock stops and higher scoring games. Baltimore is 7th in the NFL in passing attempts per game while Jacksonville is 9th and both throw it on more that 63% of their offensive possessions. The 'over' is 5-2 in Baltimores last 7 games overall and Jacksonville 'over' bettors have been rewarded with four straight cashes. Expect a shootout here with 50+ points. |
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11-14-15 | Washington State +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington State +10 over UCLA, Saturday at 10:45 PM ET - ASA's POWER 5 DOG OF THE MONTH Washington State continues to fly under the radar despite playing very good football. The Cougs are 4-2 in Pac 12 play and they are only a few plays away from being 6-0. Their losses came at the hands of Stanford 30-28 and WSU dominated that game outgained the Cardinal by 130 yards. Their other loss was a 6-point setback at Cal, a game the Bears scored on a 45 yards fumble return & put up a TD with 40 seconds remaining to win. UCLA is off a 41-0 shutout vs by far the worst team in the Pac 12 Oregon State. The Bruins have been far from a dominant home team this season. They beat BYU by 1-point here, lost by 15 to Arizona State, and beat a poor Colorado team by just 4. We have these teams rated almost dead even on a neutral field. If you look at the yardage and scoring margins, you’d have a hard time saying one is better than the other. Yet we’re getting double digits with a WSU team that has already beaten Oregon & Arizona on the road in league play. WSU coach Mike Leach is 11-3 ATS as a Pac 12 road dog and we think he gets another ATS win here. Take the generous points as this one should be close. |
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11-14-15 | Temple v. South Florida +3 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Florida +3 over Temple, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - ASA's AAC GAME OF THE WEEK We’ve kept a close eye on the Owls all season long. They are a very solid team, but not a dominant 8-1 type team. This is a team that has one loss yet outgains their opponents by just 26 yards per game. This will be Temple’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they have a massive game on deck at home vs Memphis. If you simply look at the score, you’d think the Owls dominated @ SMU last week winning 60-40. The fact is, SMU had the ball with under 3:00 minutes remaining down just 45-40. A crazy string of events to close out that game made it look much worse that it was. USF is an under valued team in our opinion. They are currently 5-4 and this is a HUGE home game for the Bulls. A win gets them bowl eligible which is very important as they play a very good Cincinnati team and @ UCF to close out the season. The Bulls have been playing very good football as of late. They have won 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss coming by 12 points @ Navy, a team that crushed an undefeated Memphis last week. In that stretch the Bulls have beaten Syracuse (by 21), UConn (on the road) and ECU (on the road). Temple could be a bit “spent” both emotionally and physically after playing Notre Dame two weeks ago and now being on the road for the 2nd straight week (long travel from Philly to Texas last week & Philly to Florida this week). We smell an upset and we’ll take the points. |
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11-14-15 | Washington v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arizona State -2.5 over Washington, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - ASA's PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR Washington is a young team coming off two huge home games. They beat Arizona and then lost to Utah last week. The Huskies have a freshman QB Browning and we think ASU’s defense will keep him confused and off his spot on Saturday. The Devils are a heavy blitzing team that likes to keep the opposing QB guessing. Sometimes that can come back to bite them if facing veteran QB’s but we think it’s a huge advantage against inexperienced signal callers. ASU puts tons of pressure on the QB as they are 3rd nationally in sacks per game and 14th in sack percentage. ASU is 4-5 and this is a very important home game for them if they want to reach a bowl game. Their most recent home game was a tough multiple OT loss to Oregon 61-55. It was a controversial ending and a game that ASU outgained the Ducks by 240 yards but lost. The Devils were favored by 2.5 in that game and now are laying only 3 vs Washington. Arizona State has beaten Washington 9 straight times and they are much better than their record. The value is with ASU here and we’ll lay it. |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets OVER 42 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 42 points - Buffalo @ NY Jets, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET Both of these teams have been quite efficient on offense with Buffalo ranking 8th and the Jets 11th according to Football Outsiders. The Bills average 26 PPG on the year and have scored 30+ in half their games this season (4). The Jets average 25 PPG and have been held under 20 only one time this year. Buffalo came into the season with the experts raving about their defense. The fact is they’ve been a “middle of the pack” defense all season long allowing 353 YPG which is 16th in the NFL. The Jets stop unit has really fallen off their early pace which had them as the 2nd best defense in the NFL behind Denver. In their last 4 games New York has allowed 20, 30, 34, and 23 points. Tyrod Taylor came back from injury for Buffalo last week and led the Bills to 33 points vs Miami. He also has most of his weapons back on offense as RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins have returned. The Jets QB Fitzpatrick was injured vs Oakland two weeks ago but he was back under center last week throwing for 272 yards and leading the Jets to 28 points. Over the last 20 meetings, these two AFC East rivals have cashed the OVER 70% of the time (14 overs, 6 unders). Eight of the last 10 meetings between these two have reached at least 41 points and this number is set a just 42 or 42.5. Take the OVER. |
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11-12-15 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech UNDER 52 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 52 Points - Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2 Many times the players defensive side of the ball can get worn down late in the season but with both teams off a bye we expect them to be rested and play well defensively. Neither offense likes to pass much. GT averages 49 carries per game and attempts only 16 passes per game. VT averages 43 carries per game and attempts only 29 passes per game. With both teams running a vast majority of the time that will “shorten” the game and keep the clock moving. Neither offense lights up the scoreboard very often. Let’s take a look at when these two offenses have scored in ACC play this year. The Yellow Jackets have scored 20, 21, 34, 28, 22, and 21 points. The Hokies have scored (in regulation) 13, 20, 28, 24, and 26 points. That means in 11 ACC games these teams have topped 30 points only once. The Virginia Tech defense has had two weeks to prepare for the “quirky” Yellow Jacket running game which is always a huge bonus. Secondly, the Hokies and DC Bud Foster have had great success slowing down this offense as in their 7 meetings Georgia Tech has averaged just 20 PPG. This looks like a low scoring game to us and we side with the UNDER. |
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11-10-15 | Kent State +7 v. Ohio | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Kent +7 over Ohio, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET on ESPNU Ohio is really banged up right now. Their starting QB Vick is questionable with an ongoing ankle problem. Two starting LB’s are questionable, 3 DB’s are out, their starting center might not play, and we could go on. This team started the year 5-1 but since their “plague” of injuries they’ve lost 3 straight and none were close losing by margins of 38, 35, and 24 points. The Bobcat defense has been hit the hardest. After allowing 94 points over their first 6 games of the season, they have allowed a whopping 152 over their last 3! Kent isn’t great by any means but they are on par with this current Ohio squad. Getting a full TD is too much. Kent is much better defensively allowing just 4.6 YPPG compared to 6.0 YPP for Ohio. This is a big rivalry game and Kent ALWAYS comes to play for this one. In fact, their defense has not allowed Ohio to top 17 points since the 2008 season, a span of 7 games. Last year, in a tight game throughout, Ohio kicked a FG as time expired to beat Kent 17-14. That simply adds more fuel to Kent’s fire for this one. The experts are expecting a low scoring game (45 is the total) which makes it tougher to cover by a larger margin. We think this one plays out very similar to last year’s game and we’ll take the points. |
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11-09-15 | Bears +5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Not sure San Diego should be this type of favorite tonight. Our line on this was -3 so the value is with Chicago crossing over key numbers 3 & 4. The Chargers are 2-6 on the year and their two wins have come against Detroit by 5 & Cleveland by 3, both at home. Close games against bad teams. The Bolts will be without QB Rivers top target tonight as WR Keenan Allen is out. SD’s offense is solid but they are held back by their lack of a running game. Rookie Melvin Gordon hasn’t been given many opportunities carrying the ball only 12 or 13 times per game usually. They average only 86 YPG rushing and their offensive line is in shambles. Rivers is pretty much what they have offensively. Chicago’s pass defense ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing only 214 YPG so they match up pretty well. The Chargers defense stinks. They allow 6.3 YPP on the year which is only ahead of New Orleans. A team with a defense that bad can’t be trusted laying points above those key numbers tonight. Chicago is playing better going 2-2 their last 4 games with both losses coming by just a field goal. We look for this game to be a field goal type game either way giving us value at +4.5 or +5. Take Chicago. |
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11-08-15 | Falcons v. 49ers UNDER 44 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44 - San Francisco @ New Orleans, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET San Francisco has not scored an offensive TD in their last 2 games to to jumpstart their offense they will start Blaine Gabbert at QB. Well the Niners are last in the NFL averaging 13 PPG and they have been held to 7 points or less 5 times this season. Don’t look for much to change with the QB switch. Gabbert in his 27 career starts has led his offense to less than 20 points 20 times. He hasn’t played in a real NFL game since October of last year. That was the only game he played in last season. Add the fact that SF is down to their 4th string RB and we don’t see many points coming for the host. The Niner defense has been solid at home allowing just 15 PPG including holding Green Bay to 17. They have played 4 home games and nobody has topped 20 on this defense here in San Fran. After a hot start to the season offensively, the Falcons have really struggled as of late scoring 21, 10, and 20 points their last 3. There is a good chance neither team reaches 20 in this one. Take the UNDER. |
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11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4.5 over Oakland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Many are now firmly on the Raider bandwagon and while we definitely think they are improved, this is a bad spot for them. The Raiders have won 2 straight but let’s look at each situation. Two weeks ago they beat a reeling San Diego team (2-6 record) with a banged up offensive line and the Chargers were off a long trip to Green Bay the week before. Last week they played host to the NY Jets and the flyboys QB Fitzpatrick only played a few plays before leaving with a thumb injury. That left Geno Smith at the helm in the 34-20 Jet loss. While Oakland may have won that game anyway, they have caught some breaks the last few weeks. The fact it they have been outgained in every game but 2 this year and they are -20 YPG on the season. Now they travel to Pittsburgh where they are just 1-15 their last 16 trips to the eastern time zone. The Steelers are off a loss 16-10 to the Bengals so this is a big game for them as they sit at 4-4. QB Roethlisberger is back for the 2nd straight game so he should be comfortable this week. The Steelers did lose RB Bell, however his replacement Williams has had a very solid season. Pittsburgh was a Playoff/Super Bowl type team entering the season but sit at .500 due to the absence of Roethlisberger. Oakland has come out of nowhere and not might even be a bit over valued. We like Pittsburgh with this low number at home. |
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11-08-15 | Titans +8 v. Saints | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +8 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Not sure the Saints with their terrible defense should be favored by this number over anyone. The Saints rank 31st in YPG allowed and dead last (32nd) in YPP allowed. Now what makes the big points intriguing here is that the underdog has a very good defense. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL in total defense allowing just 316 YPG. The Titans are allowing a full TD less per game than New Orleans (22 PPG to 29 PPG). The Titans should get a jump start with a new coach as well. We like looking at “interim” coaches after a mid-season coach firing as teams tend to rally. Whisenhunt was fired after last week’s loss @ Houston and his replacement, Mularkey has head coaching experience with Buffalo. This is a very similar situation to Miami a few weeks ago when Philbin was fired and the team played a great few games after that. Tennessee QB Mariota is back and the Titans catch the Saints off a huge OT win over NY Giants (52-49). We like Tennessee to give New Orleans a run on Sunday. Take the points. |
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11-07-15 | Hawaii v. UNLV -9.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNLV -9.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - ASA's MWC GAME OF THE YEAR Look for Hawaii to be completely out of gas here. This is their 5th trip to the states in the last 7 weeks. They have not had a bye and spent more time away from home than they have at home. They are off a 58-7 loss at home to Air Force and head coach Norm Chow was fired last week. The UNLV players have been waiting for this one after a crazy loss last year @ Hawaii. The Rebs scored a TD with 15 seconds left in that game to take a 35-31 lead. In their celebration UNLV was flagged for not one, but two 15-yards penalties giving Hawaii great field position after the kickoff. UH threw a TD pass as time ran out to win. The Rainbows have been shelled on the road this year going 0-5 losing by a combined score of 132-47. UNLV has improved greatly this year. They have won only 2 games, however have been close a number of times. They were off a bye last week and facing top tier opponent Boise State. While the final score was a large margin, UNLV played well the Rebs were within 7 points entering the 4th quarter. This is just their 2nd game after the bye so the will be well rested unlike a physically whipped Hawaii team that is allowing 258 YPG rushing. This one turns into a laugher. |
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11-07-15 | Cincinnati +9 v. Houston | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +9 over Houston, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET It's common sense when looking at teams statistics you consider who teams have faced before passing final judgment. The Bearcats and Cougars are similar in terms of offensive statistics (yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play all nearly equal) but Houston rates the edges defensively in rushing and yards per play with passing stats very close. BUT the Cougars have faced a really weak schedule (85th) compared to Houston's (70th). Houston's defense is over-rated as they've faced Central Florida, Tulane and Vanderbilt their past three games and all three rank 107th or worse in total offense. With the return of QB Gunner Kiel the Bearcats offense has hit its stride the past few games. Over the last two games, he’s completed 41-of-50 for 646 yards, seven touchdowns and no picks. Cincinnati is averaging almost 39 points per game, while ranking 4th in the league in rushing and No. 1 in passing. A big concern for Houston is their offensive line and can they protect QB Ward? The Cougars started three rookie linemen last week, including true freshman Will Noble at center. It showed, with the team averaging just 2.9 yards per rush. These two teams are very similar but we like the fact the Bearcats have played a tougher schedule and have an offense capable of trading points with the Cougs. Close game - grab the points. |
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11-07-15 | Florida State +11 v. Clemson | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida State +11 over Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE MONTH This number is much too high in our opinion. FSU is an immensely talented team and this is their game of the year. To give you some perspective, these two teams have played 25 times since 1980 and Clemson has been favored TWICE and neither of those were close to this number. Last year FSU was a 10.5 point favorite so this line has swung a full 22 points based on where this spread currently stands (FSU +12). Another way to put this spread into perspective is taking a look back just a few weeks ago when Clemson was favored at home by 7 points vs Georgia Tech. The Noles have one loss on the season but that was a freak blocked kick return at the end of their game @ Georgia Tech. Otherwise we’d have two undefeated teams facing off here. Clemson also just had some extra pressure heaped on their shoulders being ranked #1 in the first playoff poll which came out earlier this week. They are now the targeted team and FSU has the talent to pull this upset. Clemson has skated through a rather easy schedule with the only real formidable “top 20” type team being Notre Dame. They beat the Irish by 2 points here at home but were outgained by 140 yards and by nearly a full 2 YPP. Clemson was favored by 3 in that game and now they are laying 4 times that number to a Florida State team that is every bit as talented as the Irish. FSU actually rested their top RB Cook last week (who is a bit banged up) to make sure he was ready here. Starting QB Golson also sat but should be ready here. You can bet FSU will be ultra motivated as a double digit underdog. This one stays close throughout and we wouldn’t be at all shocked for the Seminoles pull the upset. Take the points. |
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11-05-15 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | Top | 40-27 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -10 over Arkansas State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET App State is the best team in the Sun Belt conference. Easily the best in our opinion. They came into this season with high expectations off of a 7-5 season in 2014. They returned more starters than any other team in college football (20) and that experience has paid off this season. They Mountaineers are 7-1 on the year and a perfect 4-0 in the Sun Belt. Their only loss was to the #1 team in the most recent playoff rankings, Clemson. Even in that game if it weren’t for a pile of turnovers (4) they were fairly competitive getting outgained by just 94 yards. App State ranks #1 in the Sun Belt in almost every key category (scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, total defense, point differential, YPP differential). Arkansas State is also 4-0 in the conference but they are nowhere near as good as they have been in past years. Comparing their key numbers to Appalachian State you’ll quickly see, there is no comparison. App State has a point differential of +185 this year, Arkansas State is +33. App State is +176 YPG and +2.1 YPP on the season. Arkie State is +6 YPG and +0.0 YPP on the season. We could go on but you get the point. The Mountaineers have already played what we feel is the 2nd best Sun Belt team, Georgia Southern and beat them by 18 points. Ark State has played a much easier Sun Belt slate beating Georgia St, UL Lafayette, South Alabama, and Idaho. App State went to Arkansas St last year and won 37-32 and they are MUCH better this year while the Red Wolves are not as good. This game will go a long ways in deciding who wins the Sun Belt Title. We side with the better team at home. |
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11-05-15 | Ball State +15 v. Western Michigan | Top | 7-54 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ball State +15 over Western Michigan, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET – Western Michigan comes in with a 4-0 MAC record however they have played a ridiculously easy schedule to date. Their last 3 MAC games have come against Eastern Michigan, Miami OH, and Ohio who have a combined 2-13 conference record. Ball State, on the other hand, has 3 MAC losses but they have come at the hands of the 3 of the top 4 teams in the league (Toledo, Northern Illinois, & Central Michigan). Two of those three final scores landed under this number of (+14.5) and the only one that did not was their game at NIU where they lost by 18 and that was an 11-point game in the 4th quarter. Also, in that game @ NIU, the Cards were +10.5 and now they are getting +14.5 in this game vs a team that we have rated lower than the Huskies. Good value here. Ball State has played a very tough schedule, not only the top 3 in the MAC, but also Texas A&M and Northwestern in the pre-season so their 3-6 record is understandable. WMU has HUGE games on deck with Toledo & Northern Illinois coming up next so a look ahead is probably in order here. Last year Western Mich won by 4 in this game and most have been close. Since 2001, a span of 14 meetings, Western Michigan has beaten Ball State by more than 2 TD’s just ONCE. Take the points here. |
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11-04-15 | Ohio v. Bowling Green -19.5 | Top | 24-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bowling Green (-) over Ohio, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN2 If we’re going to lay hefty points in any game, we like to side with teams that consistently put up big numbers against teams that struggle to score. That’s exactly what we have here. BG is averaging just under 50 PPG in conference play while Ohio is putting up 19.8. The Bobcats have been held to 17 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games. In league play (comparing similar opponents) the Falcons are rolling up just under 600 YPG which is a full +250 yards more than Ohio. BG is also better defensively by 17 YPG (in MAC games). In league play Bowling Green has a whopping +32 PPG point differential while Ohio is -7.0. For comparison’s sake these teams have played 2 common opponents (Buffalo & Akron). Bowling Green beat Buffalo by 6 points and Akron by 49 points. Ohio lost to Buffalo by 24 points and beat Akron by 2 points. The Eagles are peaking right now winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 107-10! Ohio is heading in the opposite direction losing each of their last two games by a combined score of 31-88. We’ll lay the points on Wednesday night. |
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Toledo | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois +8 over Toledo, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN2 We have these teams rated fairly evenly with a slight edge to Toledo. Not more than a full TD edge so the value is with NIU here. A quick look at the records might think you should take a strong look at a 7-0 Toledo over a 5-3 Husky team. However, NIU has played a tougher schedule. Their losses came @ Ohio State by 7, @ Boston College by 4, and @ Central Michigan by 10. However that was a BRUTAL stretch of games as all 3 losses came in 3 weeks with 3 consecutive road games. By the time they got to CMU on week 3, they were out of gas. Since that loss NIU has destroyed 3 straight teams by margins of 18, 33, and 28 points. The Huskies rushed for 273, 311, and 322 yards in those 3 games. These teams have played 2 common opponents (Ball State & EMU) and the results were fairly similar with Toledo outgaining those two by a combined 335 yards and NIU outgaining them by a combined 348 yards. For the season Northern Illinois is +1.1 YPP differential while Toledo is +1.2. The Huskies have won 5 straight in this series and we don’t see a full TD+ separating these two. Take the points. |
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11-01-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 10-29 | Loss | -119 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Denver, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this over rated Denver team and this is it. The Broncs, despite being 6-0, are just 8th in the NFL in point differential at +37. They’ve had a number of close games that could have gone either way. In fact, they’ve won only 1 game this year by more than a TD. We faded this team a few weeks ago @ Oakland (+4.5) but the Broncos got a little “lucky” again and won 16-10 without scoring an offensive TD. Speaking of offensive TD’s, Denver has scored just 9 of them this year in 6 games. Football outsiders has Denver ranked as THE LEAST efficient offense in the NFL. They are currently last in the NFL averaging only 5 YPP and Peyton Manning currently has the lowest QBR of any starting quarterback. That won’t get any better on Sunday as they face one of the better defenses in the NFL. Green Bay actually leads the NFL allowing only 16.8 PPG and they are rated the 7th most efficient defense. That tells us one thing. Denver’s defense is going to have to play the game of their life to win this one. Green Bay’s offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm is light years better than Denver’s offense. The Bronco defense has been really good this year but let’s look at the QB’s they’ve faces this year – Flacco, Alex Smith, Stafford, Bridgewater, Carr, and McCown. Hardly any Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady types in there. These defenses are pretty close but we give Denver a slight edge. Offensively Green Bay has a huge edge. The Packers are 9-0 ATS off a bye under McCarthy and with this small number, we like Green Bay on Sunday night. |
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11-01-15 | Chargers v. Ravens OVER 50.5 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 50.5 points - San Diego @ Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH This one has high scoring written all over it. We have two fast paced offenses that run a lot of plays. San Diego ranks 2nd in the NFL at offensive plays run per game at 71 and Baltimore is 7th at 67. Neither run the ball a lot as just 33% of the Charger plays are on the ground while Baltimore comes in at just 36% running plays. San Diego is 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts per game at 45 and Baltimore is 6th at 41. There won’t be a lot of clock grinding running plays in this game. Defensively neither are good. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in defensive efficiency and San Diego is 30th. Neither defense stacks up well defending the pass as San Diego ranks as the 23rd most efficient pass defense and Baltimore the 26th. The weather looks fine (potential light rain but no winds) and we look for both teams to approach or eclipse 30 here. Take the OVER. |
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11-01-15 | Lions v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - London England KC is better than their 2-5 record in our opinion. Their losses have come at the hands of Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati (all undefeated) Minnesota, and Chicago. Their lone “bad” loss in that group was vs Chicago, a game the Chiefs led throughout but allowed the Bears to kick a buzzer beating FG. We think the get a “boost” heading to London this week off a home win over Pittsburgh last Sunday. Detroit is 1-6 and unlike KC, they look like a 1-6 team. They are 31st in the NFL in point differential at -61. Only SF is worse. They are ranked 25th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are 29th in scoring offense (19 PPG), dead last in rushing offense, and last in opposing QBR defense. This team just isn’t good. Now they are coming off a division home loss to Minnesota (19-28) and now win only 1 win we don’t look for them to put up much of an effort traveling to London. At this small number, we like KC on Sunday. |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame -10.5 v. Temple | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame -10.5 over Temple, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET on ABC Temple is undefeated but they have done that against the 102nd most difficult schedule. Despite playing an ultra easy slate, the Owls have actually been outgained in 3 of their 7 games and are only +39 YPG on the season. The best teams they’ve beaten are Penn State (season opener and vs a vastly over rated team) and Cincinnati (Bearcats had 5 turnovers and outgained Temple by 260 yards). Much has been made of how “good” Temple’s defense is, however they’ve face mainly very weak offenses including UCF, Tulane, Penn State, and Charlotte. They are not as good as they numbers appear. Notre Dame has had two weeks to get ready for this which is a big advantage. The Irish have also played the MUCH tougher schedule (6th ranked SOS) having already faced Texas, Clemson, USC, Georgia Tech & Virginia. Even though they have played a much tougher slate, they have much better numbers than Temple outgaining their opponents by 130 YPG. Their lone loss came at the hands of #3 Clemson on the road by a score of 24-22. The Irish actually dominated the stats at Clemson outgaining the Tigers 437-296. Turnovers for ND were the difference in that game. These two have played on common opponent on back to back weeks. Temple beat UMass 25-23 and outgained the Minutemen by 20 yards. A week later, Notre Dame beat UMass 62-27 outgaining them by 230 yards. The Irish are battling for a spot in college football’s “Final 4” and if they win out, they’ll have a great chance to get there. They will be more than ready here off a bye, in front of a nationally televised audience, vs an undefeated opponent. On top of that, don’t expect a huge home field advantage for Temple as much of the crowd will be ND fans. Temple gets exposed here. |
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10-31-15 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati -27 | Top | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -27 over UCF, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET Here we have a team that can’t score against a team that puts up big numbers. That gives you blowout potential with Cincinnati. The Bearcats are MUCH better than their 4-3 record. Their losses have come at the hands of Temple (7-0), Memphis (7-0), and BYU (6-2). The only team that really outplayed the Bearcats was BYU. Despite their losses to Temple & Memphis, they outgained those two teams by 261 yards and 182 yards respectively. Cincy ranks 8th nationally averaging a whopping 542 YPG. They are facing a UCF team that ranks 127th (out of 128) in that category putting up only 256 YPG. UCF is 0-8 on the year and they have topped 16 points only ONCE all season long. Now they have the added distraction of their coach George O’Leary quitting (retired) after last week’s 59-10 loss to Houston. The Bearcats rolled up 612 total yards last week on a decent UConn defense. Now they are facing a UCF defense that is really wearing down because of the offensive ineptness. In their last 4 games UCF’s defense has allowed 49, 40, 30, and 59 points. Cincy names the score here as Central Florida simply can’t stop them and can’t keep up offensively. |
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10-31-15 | Ole Miss -7 v. Auburn | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -7 over Auburn, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET One loss Ole'Miss controls their own destiny in the SEC West as they own the tie breaker over Alabama because they beat them head to head but they basically need to win out. Auburn on the other hand is struggling through a disappointing season and are in a bad spot here coming off a brutal 4 OT loss to Arkansas last week. Ole'Miss was favored by 6.5 points at 6-1 Florida and favored by 10-points over 7-0 Memphis and even though they lost both those games that tells us what kind of value we are getting here laying a TD at 4-3 Auburn. The Rebels are averaging 515 total yards of offense per game while giving up just 338 for a +176 yards differential per game. They have a positive point differential of 21.2PPG. Auburn on the other hand is only averaging 363 yards per game while giving up 431 for a negative differential of -67YPG. They also have a negative point differential of -1.3PPG. Mississippi's statistics come from playing the 8th best schedule to date in college football while the Tigers come against the 27th toughest. Auburn's decline is evidenced by their 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with winning records. Ole'Miss has a 6-2 record. Easy call...Rebels big! |
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10-30-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice +11.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Rice +11.5 over La Tech, Friday at 8:00 PM ET We expect a letdown here from La Tech. They’ve had a number of “big” games this year and they are off games @ Mississippi State and home vs MTSU which as a HUGE game for them in the conference race. It is also La Tech’s 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Rice will be ready. They’ve been waiting for this game. These two met last year with the CUSA West title on the line. La Tech was a 7.5 home favorite and they ripped Rice 76-31. It was a 28-24 game in the 3rd quarter when things snowballed, Rice committed 4 turnovers, LT scored 2 defensive TD’s and the game got out of hand. The Owls are a significant home dog that runs the ball very well (195 YPG). We like those situations. Not only that, the weather isn’t expected to be great with windy & rainy conditions. That favors a solid running Rice team over a La Tech teams that throws for over 300 YPG. Just a few weeks ago Rice played host to Western Kentucky and the Owls were +7. We have WKU rated 16 spots higher than La Tech right now yet we’re getting double digits with Rice here in a bad spot for LT. The home team has the advantage on a short week and we like Rice here. A home team that can score points (Rice averages 30 PPG) is a nice take as a double digit dog. |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots -8 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 48 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Miami, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFL THURSDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH Miami is hot we get it. We’ve been on them the last two weeks and cashed in nicely with both. However, let’s not forget those two games were against Tennessee & Houston who have a combined 3-10 record. Sure Miami’s defense has looked much better the last two weeks but they’ve faced two of the least efficient offenses in the NFL (Houston 25th & Tennessee 27th). Two teams with questions at QB with the Titans starting a rookie (Mariota) and the Texans starting the equivalent of a back up (Hoyer). Now they face the most efficient offense in the NFL with Tom Brady at the helm. Brady and the Pats will be ready for this division battle and they get to show their worth as the “only game in town” on National TV. Brady loves the spotlight and he will perform well. The Pats are a remarkable 27-7-1 ATS at home when favored by less than 10 points. Against Miami, 9 of New England’s last 10 wins here in Foxboro have come by double digits. The Patriots are also 18-7 ATS their last 25 in this series. They are simply a dominating home team winning 54 of their last 61 games here. 12 of their last 14 wins here have come by at least a TD. We have one of the top NFL coaches of all time Bill Belichick takes on interim Dan Campbell and while the “rah-rah” approach worked for the Fins against poor competition, it won’t here. Lay the number with New England on Thursday. |
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10-29-15 | Texas State v. Georgia Southern -20.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -20.5 over Texas State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU The situation definitely favors Georgia Southern in this game. They are at home with extra time to prepare. The Eagles played last Thursday @ App State, the best team in the Sun Belt, and lost. It was Southern’s first Sun Belt loss since joining the conference at the beginning of last year so they will be extra motivated here. Texas State, unlike Ga Southern, has to travel on a short week. TSU beat South Alabama at home on Saturday but they were outgained in the game. The Bobcats arrived in Statesboro around 10 PM last night after a short week of practice. You couldn’t ask for a bigger mismatch as far as the rushing attack goes. GSU is #1 in the nation in rushing averaging 370 YPG on the ground and 6.8 YPC. Texas State can’t stop anybody on the ground. If you take out their game against FCS Prairie View A&M, the Bobcats are allowing 297 YPG rushing and 6.1 YPC. That ranks them 127th nationally out of 128. So here we have the top rushing team in the country against the 2nd worst rush defense on a short week. Despite those terrible numbers defensively for TSU, they have faced only ONE team ranked inside the top 30 in rushing. Georgia Southern is the much better team here and they can showcase their university at home on national TV. They almost never get that opportunity and we look for them to roll here. |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 48.5 | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Over 48.5 Points - Baltimore @ Arizona, Monday at 8:30 PM ET These two teams have combined to go OVER the total in 9 of their 12 games so far this season. Since their season opener @ Denver, the Ravens have scored at least 20 points in every game. Arizona has topped 30 points in 4 of their 6 games and put up 40 or more points 3 times. The Cards are 2nd in the NFL in scoring at just under 34 PPG. They are 4th in the NFL averaging 405 YPG. They are coming off a game in which they put up just 13 points @ Pittsburgh despite rolling up almost 500 yards of offense. Obviously with those numbers a team would normally put up a much higher point total. The NFL average in that situation would be approx 30 points. Turnovers (4) killed them in that game. Expect a big offensive output tonight after that showing. Baltimore, despite their 1-5 record, has been good on offense ranking 11th in the league at 24 PPG. They are also 9th in the NFL averaging 370 YPG. Don’t be surprised if the Baltimore defense, who’s already struggling (25th in total defense), is a bit spent here making their 4th trip to the west already this year (@ Denver, @ Oakland, & @ SF already). Arizona’s defense has been pretty good but we expect Baltimore to throw it a lot (6th in passes attempted in the NFL) and score plenty. This one goes OVER the number. |
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10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points - Philadelphia vs Carolina, Sunday at 8:25 PM ET - ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH Here we have two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off on Sunday night. Both are in the top 8 in PPG allowed and both are in the top 5 in defensive efficiency. Carolina is a conservative type offense with no “difference making” receivers. They rank near the bottom of the NFL (28th) in both YPG (334) and YPP (5.0). The Eagles rank 20th in YPG offensively and while many think they “turned the corner” the last few weeks scoring 39 vs New Orleans and 27 vs NYG, we’re not buying it. First of all the Saints have THE WORST defense in the NFL so let’s discount that number. The Giants rank 28th in total defense so the same story with that game. Now the Eagles face one of the best defenses in the NFL with a struggling QB (Bradford has been bad). The Panthers scored 27 last week in Seattle but had just 14 with only 4:00 minutes remaining for a late rally. With these two top notch defenses, this number is set too high. We like the UNDER on Sunday night. |
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10-25-15 | Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins -4 | Top | 26-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami -4 over Houston, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE YEAR We jumped on the Fins last week banking on them being “revitalized” with the coaching change and we were correct. They dominated the Titans 38-10 outgaining Tennessee by 135 yards and by a full 2 YPP. QB Tannehill looked better than he has all season completing 22 of 29 for 266 yards. The defense looked light years better with 6 sacks vs Tennessee after having just 1 in their first 4 games. The Fins were a 8-8 team last year and played very well in the pre-season when their starters were in the game. Everything we’ve heard is the players love interim coach Campbell so we expect the good play and emotion to continue this week. After losing 4 of their first 5 games, Houston picked up a win last week @ Jacksonville. The final was a bit deceiving though as the Texans were actually outgained by the Jags but benefitted from a pick 6 and 3 Jax turnovers (0 for Houston). Houston is just 6-16 SU their last 22 road games and this is their 3rd time away from home the last 4 weeks. At this small number and re-energized team, we like Miami. |
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10-24-15 | Toledo -14 v. UMass | Top | 51-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Toledo -14 over UMass, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - MAC Game of the Month This game has all the makings of a blowout. UMass is coming off a loss last week to Kent 10-15 as a 7-point favorite and now face a Toledo team that beat Kent the week before 38-7 as a -15.5 point chalk. Toledo outgained Kent by 261 total yards and 2.5 yards per play. UMass was outgained by 70 yards in their loss to Kent and were negative in yards per play at -1.2 for the game. Massachusetts offensive strength is throwing the football but they'll struggle here against a Toledo defense that is 29th versus the pass allowing just 5.31 yards per pass. On the flip side the Minutemen will have trouble stopping a balanced Rockets attack that can throw and run. Toledo is 39th in passing yards per play at 7.04 (33rd) and 37th in rushing yards per play at 5.41. The Rockets rushing offense has a decisive advantage over a UMass rush defense that allows 5.45 yards per carry and is 102nd in the nation. Opponents are averaging 490 yards per game (113th) against UMass this season and 38PPG. The Rockets have outscored their last four opponents by 118 total points and outgained them by 864 total yards. Massachusetts doesn't really have a home field advantage playing at the Gillette Stadium so we don't have a problem laying double digit points with the road team. |
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10-24-15 | Tulane v. Navy -24 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Navy -24 over Tulane, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's American Athletic Conference Game of the Year First of all Tulane can’t score so laying a big number against them isn’t as risky as it would against some other teams. The Green Wave offense is bad as they average only 257 YPG ranking them 127th nationally out of 128. They have played 6 games this year and been held to 10 or fewer points in 4 of them. Defensively, if you take out their game vs Maine (FCS opponent) Tulane has allowed 37, 65, 31, 49, and 42 points. They can’t run the ball at all (98 YPG on 2.9 YPC) which means they better be able to throw it to score. After missing last week, starting QB Lee (concussion) will most likely return here, but it won’t matter, the Wave are in trouble. Last week they were trounced at home 42-7 by Houston while Navy took the week off. It’s a tough transition from preparing for Houston’s offense (shotgun – Ohio State offense) to Navy’s option in one short week. The Tulane defense did face a similar option offense once this year @ Georgia Tech. That didn’t go so well at Tech won that game 65-10 rolling up 440 yards rushing. Navy is third nationally in rushing at 335 YPG and they will do serious damage here just as Ga Tech did. Midshipmen QB Reynolds will start here after injuring his leg @ Notre Dame two weeks ago. The two weeks off really helped and Reynolds practiced full go this week. Navy has handled some solid teams here at home including beating a solid ECU team by 24 and a good Air Force team by 22 in a rivalry game. Tulane has played 2 road games this year (@ Georgia Tech & @ Temple) and lost those by a combined score of 114-20! Navy wears Tulane down and literally runs away with this one. |
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10-24-15 | Auburn v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 46-54 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -6.5 over Auburn, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - SEC Game of the Month
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10-22-15 | California +4 v. UCLA | Top | 24-40 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* California +4 over UCLA, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN We’re taking the better team getting points in this one. Cal is often overlooked but his is a very good team. The Bears are 5-1 on the season and their only loss game at the hands of undefeated at top 5 team Utah. The Bears lost that one 30-24 despite committing SIX turnovers. They outgained the Utes in the game and probably should be sitting at 6-0 right now. UCLA is reeling right now. They’ve lost 2 straight and neither were close. They were whipped by 21 points last week vs Stanford and lost by 15 points at home a week earlier vs Arizona State. The Bruins really could have lost 3 of their last at their home tilt with BYU on Sept 19th went to the wire with UCLA winning 24-23. Their defense has been atrocious in Pac 12 play allowing 124 points and over 1300 yards in three games. They allowed 50+ points in 2 of their 3 conference games. That will be a problem tonight facing a top notch offense and QB. Jared Goff is ranked as the #1 QB on NFL draft boards and he has led Cal to average 34 PPG on 490 YPG. He should have a field day against his struggling UCLA defense. We have a big edge at QB with Goff facing UCLA true frosh Rosen, who has come back down to earth a bit after a red hot start vs weaker competition. The Cal upperclassmen will have a little extra motivation tonight after they lost at home to UCLA 36-34 a year ago, losing the lead with just over 3:00 remaining in the game. Take the points here as we feel Cal wins this game outright. |
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10-22-15 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 47.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47.5 points - Temple @ ECU, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 The Temple defense gets a lot of recognition, however their offense has been pretty solid. The Owls have scored at least 25 points in every game this year and they’ve put up at least 30 points in 4 of their 6 games. Defensively, while we think Temple is solid, we also think they are over rated. They have very good stats but let’s take a look at some of the offenses they’ve faced. Their last 3 games have come against UCF, Tulane, and Charlotte who rank 118th, 119th, & 116th nationally in scoring (out of 128). Throw in Penn State to open the season (possibly the worst offense in the Big Ten) and 4 of the 6 teams they’ve faced are really poor offensively. The two good offenses they played were UMass and Cincinnati. The Owls “held” UMass to 23 points, however the Minutemen put up 438 yards which normally equates to much more than 23 ponits. Same with their game vs Cincinnati. The Bearcats scored 26 points but went up and down the field for a whopping 557 yards. ECU’s offense will have success tonight. They’ve scored 30+ points in 4 straight games and they are averaging 33 PPG on the season. The Pirates are also averaging 433 YPG in total offense. Defensively ECU has at least 20 points in every game except one. That was last week vs Tulsa when the Golden Hurricane scored 17 but should have had more as they totaled 463 yards. That total for the Tulsa – ECU game last week was set at 77! Now we’re getting the Pirates almost 30 points lower, granted against a better defensive opponent but still over rated. The Temple – UCF total was set at 43 and that was the Owls facing THE WORST total offense in the nation UCF! This number is set too low and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY GIANTS - We're not jumping on the Eagles bandwagon because of their win last week against the 2-4 Saints, who oh-by-the-way have the worst defense in the NFL. This week the Eagles face a far superior defensive team so we're predicting we'll see an Eagles offense that more resembles the unit we saw the first few weeks of the season over the one we saw against New Orleans. Prior to their game against the Saints the Eagles offense was averaging just 294 yards per game which was 30th in the NFL. We can also make a point that the 3-2 Giants could be 5-0 right now. In fact, there's a legitimate argument to be made that the Giants have quietly been one of the best teams in football this season. They're 7th in points per game, 7th in offensive efficiency, 8th in yards per play, 2nd in run defense allowing just 80.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards allowed per rush and 8th turnover differential. The Eagles 26th ranked pass defense will be exploited here by the Giants passing offense that is 8th in NFL in yards per game. Running back DeMarco Murray has been a bust for the Eagles averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and we don't see Philly running the ball here against a Giants D that is allowing a league-best 3.5 yards per carry. Teams that allow 90 or less rushing yards per game and an underdog have been very good ATS this season and the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings in this series. We feel the better team is getting points here and will play on New York. |
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10-18-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +2 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME DOG OF THE MONTH Both teams come into this game with 1-4 records but we give SF the edge at home. The Niners had a few “ugly” losses @ Pitt (with Roelisberger healthy) and @ Arizona, two of the better teams in the league. At home they’ve played well beating Minnesota handily and giving Green Bay a decent game holding the vaunted Packer offense to just 17 points and 362 total yards. Last week they had a good NYG team beat on the road until Eli Manning threw a TD 20 seconds remaining in the game. At home they’ve only allowed 20 points in 2 games this season. We like Baltimore coming into the season but they are obviously vastly over rated. They have yet to cover the spread and they have already lost to Oakland and Cleveland. Last week’s demoralizing home loss could take the wind out of their sails here. That was a must win game against a bad team and they couldn’t get it done at home. Now the Ravens travel to the west coast for the 3rd time already this season! Take the points and we’ll call for the Niners to win outright. |
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10-18-15 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 43 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43 points - Houston @ Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET -ASA's AFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR These are two of the faster paced offensive teams in the NFL so expect a lot of plays to be run in this one. Houston is actually the fastest paced team in the NFL while the Jags are 6th. The Texans actually run an average of 77 plays per game which is a full 7 plays more than the team that ranks 2nd in that category (Atlanta). They are both in the top 10 in passing play percentage and Houston leads the NFL with 48 pass attempts per game. On top of that, these teams are not very good defensively with Houston ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency and Jacksonville 24th. These are also two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL with the Jags allowing 29 PPG and Houston giving up 27 PPG. The Texans will be going with Hoyer at QB here which gives them a much better chance offensively in our opinion. Jags QB Bortles was questionable earlier in the week but he looks like a full go here. JJ Watt also came down with an illness on Saturday and may not play in this one. This number is too low and we like the OVER. |
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10-17-15 | Michigan State v. Michigan OVER 41.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41.5 points - Michigan State @ Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET The Michigan defense has been great with 3 straight shutouts but we don’t see that happening (or anything close to that) here. While Michigan’s defense is good, they aren’t THIS good. Since allowing 24 points to Utah in the season opener, the Wolverines have faced a bevy of poor passing, inexperienced QB’s. Oregon State put out a true frosh QB making his first ever start. UNLV had an experienced QB (Decker) but his isn’t good. BYU had a frosh QB as well (Mangum) who is solid but inexperienced and the Cougs were in a terrible spot. Last week they faced another frosh QB for Northwestern (Thorson). That’s 3 freshmen QB’s the last 3 weeks. Saturday they face the best QB they have seen in Connor Cook and we highly doubt they shut him down. MSU has scored at least 30 points in 17 of their last 20 games and they haven’t been held under 24 during that stretch. In order for this game to stay under, you’re asking Michigan to hold MSU to under 17 points. We don’t think that will happen. On the flip side, MSU’s defense is nowhere near as dominant as they have been the last few years. They have allowed 5 of their 6 opponents this year to reach at least 21 points. After ranking 8th in total defense last year, Sparty is just 47th nationally this season. We don’t see either team being able to run the ball effectively meaning both will take to the air. That opens up the potential for big plays as well as the possibility for a defensive TD or two. This one is set too low based on Michigan’s recent success vs ineffective QB’s. We like the OVER. |
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10-17-15 | Purdue +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue +24 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - ASA's BIG TEN POWERHOUSE PLAY Another bad line in the Big Ten. Purdue was just @ Michigan State two weeks ago and +22 and now they are getting +24 @ Wisconsin, a team that isn’t as good as MSU. They nearly won that game at MSU losing by just a FG and the Boilers had the ball late with a chance to win. The Boilers are a team that is much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve had a number of close calls (MSU, Bowling Green, Marshall) against solid teams. Last week’s 41-13 loss vs Minnesota was a bit deceiving. It was a 10-6 game in the 2nd half. The Gophs had a pick 6 and while 400 total yards of offense was good for Minnesota, that normally doesn’t equate to 41 points. The Badgers offense is very pedestrian this year. They are laying 24 points in this game and have only topped 30 points once all season. They scored 28 vs Hawaii and 28 vs Troy. In last week’s win over Nebraska it took UW a last second FG to get to 23 points. That was against a very poor Husker defense. Expect a letdown here as that was a huge 23-21 must win game for Wisconsin last Saturday. The Badger running game has been average this year as their starting RB Clement is out, their 2nd stringer Taiwan Deal is most likely out (injured last week) as well. They will be using a walk on (Ogunbuwale) and a true frosh (Ingold) who was a linebacker to start the season. Badgers will also probably be without starting center Voltz who was injured last week. UW will not run away with this game. They just want to get out with a win and we don’t see a 24 points win. Badgers win but no cover here. |
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10-17-15 | Iowa v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +2.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 12 PM ET - ASA's BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR Absolutely a wrong line here. NW should be favored in this game. Iowa is 6-0 but none of their wins have been overly impressive. Their win @ Iowa State was expected as the Cyclones are a lower tier Big 12 team. Their home win over Pitt (middle of the pack ACC team) came on a 57 yard FG at the buzzer. Their 10-6 win @ Wisconsin was very deceiving as the Badgers were +100 in total yardage and turned the ball over 4 times including fumbling at the 1-yard line going in for the winning score. Northwestern has already beaten two teams that are better than Iowa (Stanford & Duke). Sure they had a terrible game last week at Michigan but the Wolves returned the opening kickoff for a TD and had a pick 6. Not to mention the Michigan defense has been ridiculously good pitching 3 straight shut outs. If anything, that embarrassing loss brings out the best in NW this week. They also lost @ Iowa last year 48-7 in what head coach Fitzgerald admitted it was their low point of the season. He also admitted this week that last year’s loss + the fact that Iowa sits in 1st place in the Big Ten West + last week’s performance all bring an extra level of motivating for this week. Iowa is banged up coming out of their home win vs Illinois last week. Both starting offensive tackles are injured and not on the depth chart for this weeks game. On top of that, the Hawks #1 defensive lineman Drew Ott was injured last week and is out for the year. We’re getting one of the top defenses in the country at home as a dog here. The NW defensive line is an absolute strength and they are facing a depleted Iowa OL. No way the Cats should be getting points in this game. Just for comparison, two weeks ago Iowa at +7 @ Wisconsin a team we rate very close to Northwestern. In our opinion, this line will move back to even or even flop favorites by the weekend. Play it now. |
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10-16-15 | Houston -19.5 v. Tulane | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -19.5 over Tulane, Friday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU We see no way that Tulane can keep up in this game. The Green Wave struggle offensive ranking 125th nationally (out of 128) putting up only 256 YPG. Their rushing attack is almost non-existent averaging only 68 YPG. That means the only way they can score is through the air. That puts a lot of pressure on the QB. Problem is, their starting QB Lee is out in this game. That means back up Devin Powell will have a lot thrown on his shoulders tonight and he has only attempted 8 passes this year. Tulane has already been blown out 3 times this year losing by 30 to Duke, 55 to Ga Tech, and 39 to Temple. Now they face an undefeated Houston team who’s offense is among the best in the nation. Under new head coach Tom Herman (former OC at Ohio St) the Cougs are averaging 46 PPG on 574 YPG. Houston has a legit shot at running the table and they’ll want to impress in their few nationally televised games and this is one of them. Houston scores at will and Tulane, who has been held to 10 points or less 3 times this year, simply doesn’t have the personnel to stay in this game. Lay it. |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4.5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:25 PM ET We like the situation here with Pittsburgh and a strong rushing attack, off a loss, playing a weak rush defense and off a win. The Steelers and QB Michael Vick benefit from a couple extra days of prep time for this one after losing last Thursday night to the Ravens when the couldn't hold on to a 13-point lead in the 4th. Remember, Vick joined this Steelers late so the extra reps were critical this week with the offense. But for Pittsburgh to win they'll run the football (10th at 4.3 yards per carry) with Bell and Williams against a Charger rush defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. San Diego gives up 126 rush yards per game which is 28th in the NFL and 4.9 yards per carry which is 30th. We're not impressed with San Diego's 2-2 record as they beat two bad teams in the Lions and Browns, both at home by 5 and 3-points respectively. The Chargers are banged up along the offensive line and have really struggled running the football this season. They've had success throwing it but you can bet the Steelers will have a blitz heavy package in place tonight to take advantage of the Chargers weak O-line. Pittsburgh has covered 6 of their last seven when coming off a loss. They are also 4-0 their last four road games. The Chargers are just 1-6 ATS their last seven at home. 1-6 ATS when coming off a win. Pittsburgh is the play here. |
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10-11-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +3 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH We want to play on a strong rush defense here against one that doesn't stop the run well. The Jags allow just 83 rushing yards per game this season which is 4th best in the NFL. The Bucs on the other hand give up 136.8RYPG on the season which is 30th in the NFL. The angle that applies here is this: Currently the top 7 rushing defensive yards per game leaders, stand 12-5 vs. the number when getting points this season. The Jags will get the ground game going which takes pressure of Bortles and the rest of their offense. The Bucs are HORRIBLE at home having lost 11 straight on their home field and posting just 15 spread wins their last 53 at home. Jacksonville better is nearly every statistical category and the 'buy' in this situation. Outright win here by Jacksonville. |
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10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -135 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +6 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC GAME OF THE WEEK Is this a play on the Saints or a play against the Eagles? Take your pick! Should the Eagles be favored over anyone in the NFL right now with how they've played? Philly outgained the Falcons by just 4-yards in the season opener but have since been outgained by 133, 92 and 97 yards in their last three games. They are 29th in the NFL in total yardage differential getting outgained by an average of 80YPG. On the flip side the 1-3 Saints are 17th in the NFL in yardage differential so about average and have outgained foes 6YPG. The Saints looked much better offensively last week in their 26-20 win in Dallas with Bree's going 33 of 41 for 359 yards and 2 TD's without a pick. Sam Bradford and the Eagles offense under Kelly has been awful. Bradford is 19th in the NFL in passing yards per game and 25th in QBR. Philly was supposed to be dominate on that side of the football but they currently rank 29th in the league in total yards per game (Saints 7th). Defensively the Eagles hold a very slight edge in terms of yards allowed per game allowing 373.5YPG but the Saints are just below them at 381.5YPG allowed. Saints have covered 5 of their last 7 away from home while the Eagles have just 11 spread wins their last 37 at home. How fast will the Philly faithful turn on the Eagles if they fall behind here. Take the points with the better team. |
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10-11-15 | Chicago Bears v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 45 | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45 points - Chicago @ Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFL TOP TOTAL OF THE WEEK With Cutler starting at QB, the Bears have scored 23, 23, and 22 points. Their lone stinker offensively scoring zippo @ Seattle was with Jimmy Clausen at the helm. Cutler put up 281 yards through the air in last week’s win vs Oakland and he’s facing a KC defense that has allowed back to back 300 yard passers. The Chiefs defense as a whole has been shaky allowing 397 YPG on 6.1 YPP (28th in NFL in both categories). KC is 10th in the NFL in scoring averaging 25 PPG and that is despite scoring 21 points last week on SEVEN field goals. Needless to say, the Chiefs had an opportunity to put up big points on a very good Cincy defense last week and blew it. We expect that to change this week at home vs a Chicago stop unit that has given up 31, 48, 26, and 20 points this season. OVER is the play. |
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10-10-15 | Miami (Fla) +9 v. Florida State | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +9 over Florida State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET on ABC - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE YEAR FSU has dominated this series as of late winning 5 straight. That actually might take some of the “luster” off this game for the Noles while Miami definitely has this tabbed as their most important game of the season. Also, despite their recent success here, we think the Noles are a step down from previous editions. Since rolling over matched opponents Texas State & South Florida to open the season FSU has not looked like world beaters the last two weeks against lower tier ACC teams. Two weeks ago they got by BC 14-0 and only outgained the Eagles by 22 yards and FSU was +2 turnovers in that game which helped them pick up a win. Last week they struggled mightily with Wake Forest despite their 24-16 win. Wake had more first downs (13) and more yardage in that game and that was coming off a bye. The Noles again were afforded a +2 turnover margin vs Wake which again helped them get a win. As you can see, FSU has played a number of “weak” offenses with only one of their opponents ranking higher than 107th nationally in scoring offense (Texas State ranks 64th). Now they face a Miami offense that puts up 488 YPG ranking them 15th in the nation. Miami is also off their first loss of the season last Thursday @ Cincinnati. Off that loss + extra time to prepare we think the Canes bring their A game here. Miami almost got off the schneid last year as they led FSU 23-7 before the Noles came back and picked them off for a 30-26 win. Miami outgained FSU in that game and they have been waiting for this one ever since. On offense Florida State will most likely be without their top offensive weapon, RB Cook who has nearly 600 yards rushing this year. This has been a closely contested series with the underdog covering 8 of the last 10 and 11 of last 14 have been decided by less than 10 points. We think this one goes to the wire and Miami covers. |
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10-10-15 | East Carolina v. BYU -7.5 | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* BYU -7.5 over East Carolina, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPNU - ASA's HOME CHALK HAMMER GAME OF THE MONTH BYU has played the toughest schedule in the nation and it’s about to start paying off. Their first 4 games were brutal with trips to Nebraska, UCLA, and Michigan sandwiched around a home game vs Boise. We played against them at Michigan as it was at the end of that stretch and it paid off nicely. This was a spot we had pegged to jump on them for a month now. Since their loss @ Michigan, they have been back home and played only one game, a win over UConn last Friday night (outgained Huskies by 300 yards). Thus, they are now settled back in at home and they have an extra day to get ready for this game. ECU is now in a similar spot BYU was in @ Michigan as this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks, including their 2nd roadie in 2 weeks. The Pirates have played @ Florida (loss), @ Navy (loss), home vs Va Tech (win), and @ SMU (win) over 4 straight Saturdays. Now the long trip West (altitude will also factor in), ECU’s longest regular season road trip since 1993, will be a tough one. Last week the Pirates got down 23-7 at a terrible SMU team but the Mustangs defense (the worst in FBS) is worn down and it showed as ECU made the big comeback and rolled. If this tired team gets down like that this weekend (we think they will) it will be a very tough road back against a solid & physical BYU defense who has faced some of the better offenses in the country already this season. The Pirates were great on offense last year with QB Shane Carden running the show (4,800 yards & 30 TD’s) but here ECU will most likely be relying on a JC transfer making the first FBS start of his career (James Summers). BYU has a great home field advantage with a 48-8 SU record since 2006 and this situation screams easy win. |
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10-10-15 | Georgia Tech +7 v. Clemson | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +7 over Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's SITUATIONAL SMASH This is a great spot to jump on the Yellow Jackets. After losing 3 straight games, they are now a very dangerous underdog. The Jackets will be desperate here and they are catching Clemson off their huge Saturday night win over Notre Dame. The Tigers will have a hard time focusing 100% on a team that has lost 3 in a row, especially off that win. We’re now getting very good line value with GT. Let’s remember that GT was actually favored AT Notre Dame just a few weeks ago as well as a 10-point favorite @ Duke the following Saturday. Now they are getting more than a TD here. Let’s compare the two meetings with Notre Dame since they happened just 2 weeks apart. GT traveled to ND as a favorite and lost 30-22. GT was +5 first downs, +5:00 TOP, and -120 total yards. Last week ND traveled to Clemson as a 3-point dog and lost 24-22. However, ND was +5 first downs, Even TOP, and +140 total yardage so very similar to their meeting with GT stats wise final scores aside. The big difference last week was ND had 4 turnovers @ Clemson. It’s going to be tough for the Clemson defense to quickly prepare for a completely different offense than they saw last week. The Jackets have been able to move the ball on Clemson averaging over 300 YPG rushing their last 4 meetings. Tech will again run the ball, eat clock and shorten this game making it very tough to cover this number. The Bees are 17-6 ATS as dogs of a TD or more and don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech actually escapes with a win here. Take the points. |
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10-10-15 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +7.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK We expect this to be a low scoring, defensive battle which definitely favors the dog of more than a TD in our opinion. This total is currently set at just 35 points and it is warranted. Last year NW played host to Michigan as a 2-point underdog and the Wolverines came out on top 10-9. The two teams ran 143 combined plays and only averaged 3.6 YPP. In 2013 Michigan traveled to Northwestern as a 3-point dog and won the game 27-19. However, that game took 3 OT’s to decide and the score at the end of regulation was 9-9. The two teams combined for 687 yards (including OT) on 170 plays which was just 4 YPP. Obviously two games dominated by the defenses and we don’t see that changing this year. These two team are ranked #1 (Northwestern) and #2 (Michigan) nationally in scoring defense allowing 7.0 and 7.6 PPG respectively. They are both in the top 5 in the country in overall defense with Michigan allowing 184 YPG (2nd) and NW allowing 247 YPG (5th). Northwestern has allowed just 3 offensive TD’s in 5 games this year and only ONE of those TD drives was longer than 26 yards. The Wolverines have allowed just 4 offensive TD’s in 5 games. Both of these teams pitched shutouts last week with NW topping Minnesota 27-0 and Michigan rolling Maryland 28-0. The Wolverines have a massive game on deck with Michigan State, a game that Harbaugh has emphasized throughout the off-season. While we don’t think Michigan will be completely overlooking a 5-0 team, NW should be the more focused here after the way they lost the last 2 meetings. NW has already beaten Stanford & Duke and we see no reason they don’t stay at least within a TD of this Michigan team or perhaps win outright. Take the points. |
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10-09-15 | Southern Miss +5 v. Marshall | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Southern Miss +5 over Marshall, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - ASA's NCAA FRIDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH Southern Miss is one of the most improved teams in the nation and continues to be under valued in our opinion. The Eagles are 3-2 on the year but a perfect 5-0 ATS covering those games by a combined 53 points. Marshall comes in at 4-1 but we feel they are an over rated team right now. The Herd has been outgained in 3 of their 4 games vs FBS opponents and they are -300 total yards in those 4 games. The only team they outgained was a bad Old Dominion team last week and they were only +39 yards in that game. They beat ODU last week 27-7 but the Monarchs really helped them out with 4 turnovers. Beyond their 2 easy wins vs poor competition (ODU & Norfolk State) the Herd probably should have lost to both Purdue (Boilers threw 2 pick 6’s) and Kent (Herd won in double OT despite getting outgained by 160 yards). This veteran Southern Miss offense (10 starters back) is among the best in the nation. They have averaged 514 YPG (13th nationally) and 40 PPG (15th nationally). Their YPP differential (YPP offense minus YPP defense) is a very good +1.2 and that includes games against Mississippi State & Nebraska. Despite playing a much weaker slate, Marshall has averaged just 31 PPG on 351 YPG and their YPP differential is +0.5. USM has been focused on this game after getting thoroughly embarrassed last year at home by Marshall. That Herd teams was light years better than this year’s squad. Southern Miss is the better team here, with revenge, and getting points. We’ll jump in on them in this spot. |
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10-08-15 | SMU v. Houston OVER 74.5 | Top | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 74.5 Points - SMU @ Houston, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's NCAA THURSDAY TOP TOTAL We know Houston will put up a pile of points in this game. The Cougs are averaging 46 PPG (7th in the nation) on a whopping 602 YPG (4th in the nation). They are playing into an SMU defense that has been shredded for an average of 45 PPG (123rd nationally) on 593 YPG (127th & dead last in college football). This is not only a bad defense, but a tired one as well. In the last 3 games the Mustang defense has been on the field for 71, 85, and 80 plays. During that 3 game stretch they have allowed 153 points and over 2,000 YARDS! New Houston HC Tom Herman (former OC at Ohio State) obviously has them clicking and will put up big points here. However, SMU and new head coach Chad Morris (former OC at Clemson) can score as well. We’re not comfortable laying 25 points to a team that can score so the OVER is the play here. The Mustangs have put up 31 points or more in 3 of their 5 games and they are averaging 31 PPG. Both of these teams have very fast paced offenses with Houston averaging 86 plays per game and SMU averaging 75 plays per game. Expect both offenses to move quickly here and offensive plays with be abundant. Anytime you get a total in the 70’s it seems quite high but keep in mind four of the five SMU games this year have reached at least 72 points. We like Houston to top 50 points here and SMU to do enough on offense to push this OVER the total. |
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10-04-15 | Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Dallas +3.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 8:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL SUNDAY NIGHT LIGHTS We realize Drew Brees is expected to play here but so far this season that hasn’t mattered. Brees has started 2 games and the Saints lost both including a home setback to TB and rookie QB Winston. New Orleans has been outgained in every game this year. They are also the WORST defense in the NFL allowing a whopping 6.7 yards per play. Even with Brandon Weeden at QB, Dallas should be able to take advantage of this unit. On the other sidelines, Dallas has one of the better defenses in the NFL. The Boys are 8th in the NFL in total defense giving up just over 300 YPG. Dallas is 1-0 this year on the road and they have now won 9 straight away from home. New Orleans, on the other hand, is only 1-7 ATS their last 8 home games. The Saints continue to be vastly over rated and we’ll take the Cowboys on Sunday night. |
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10-04-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. Denver Broncos UNDER 43 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43 points - Minnesota @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK The Vikes have been a definite under team with all 3 games staying below the number. Denver has gone under the number in 2 of their 3 games and remain a strong look each week toward the under. As explosive as Denver’s offense has been in past years they are not that this year. They have run the ball much more and QB Manning is obviously well past his prime. His arm strength just isn’t there which has limited big passing plays. Denver actually ranks 30th in the NFL in total offense averaging just 290 YPG. The team that sits right in front of them at 29th in total offense is Minnesota who is averaging only 294 YPG. The Vikings have really relied on Adrian Peterson the last few games with QB Bridgewater has only passed for 274 yards his last 2 games COMBINED! Both defenses are solid with Denver ranking #1 in the NFL in total defense and Minnesota allowing just over 16 PPG. Under is the play here. |
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10-04-15 | Houston Texans +6 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +6 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFL DOG OF THE MONTH We will gladly take the points with the Houston Texans over the Atlanta Falcons. The Texans are 1-2 SU and two of the losses came by 7-points each. The Falcons have gotten off to perfect 3-0 start (yes, we had them 'over' the total for season wins) but they've trailed in the 4th quarter in all three games yet still managed to win. *Side note - They are the first team in NFL history to accomplish this in the first three games of the season.* Yes, the Falcons are improved but their defense still has a long ways to go. They are allowing 6.2 yards per play which is 30th in the NFL and only the 49ers and Saints are worse. They allow 378 total YPG (23rd) and 4.8 yards per carry which is 28th in the league. Houston has a decisive advantage on that side of the ball but clearly the Falcons are better offensively. But Houston offense had great balance last week with RB Blue rushing for 139 yards (Texans team 186YDS) and QB Mallett throwing for 227YDS against the Bucs. With the superior defense and the ability to control the ball here we like the underdog and the points. The Falcons are not in a comfortable role here as a favorite as they are just 7-11 ATS as a home chalk their last 18. |
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10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +3 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH Eagles are still a vastly over rated team. They are 1-2 on the season and a strong argument could be made that they should be 0-3. In their win last week @ NY Jets, they caught a LOT of breaks. First the Jets were flat as a pancake after starting 2-0 and coming off a Monday Night win @ Indy. The Eagles were +3 in turnovers in that game and had a special teams TD yet still only won by 7 points. The Jets were +100 in total yardage and held Philly to 3.4 yards per play. Washington is 1-2 as well. They are off a Thursday night loss @ NYG so they’ve had 10 days to get ready. Their win came against the Rams and they outplayed the Fins in a week 1 loss. Philly has been outgained by 220 yards combined in their 3 games while the Skins have outgained all 3 of their opponents and are +280 total yardage on the year. The “high flying) Eagles have the 2nd worst overall offense in the NFL averaging just 285 YPG. Their passing game has been poor (just 5.7 yards per attempt) and the Sam Bradford experiment has not gone well. He never won in St. Louis and he’s showing his true colors in Philly as well. Washington is better on both sides of the ball in the trenches giving us a nice edge up front. The home team won both games last year by a field goal and we see similar scenario here. We like Washington to win this game outright against the over valued Eagles. |
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10-03-15 | Kansas State +8 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 34-36 | Win | 100 | 47 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas State +8 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - ASA's Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH KSU is in a great spot here. They are off a bye giving them 2 full weeks to get ready for this game. They have a fantastic coach in Bill Snyder who thrives with extra time going 7-0 ATS off a bye. They catch Okie State off a big, last second win @ Texas 30-27 last Saturday. The Cowboys kicked 2 field goals in the final 1:33 to get that win. Texas gaffes were the big reason they blew it as OSU’s final 2 drives resulting in FG’s they tallied a -4 yards combined on those drives. Penalties and poor special teams plays gave OSU great field position and a chance to win. These two have one common opponents and the yardage results were almost identical with OSU outgained UTSA at home by 183 yards while KSU outgained UTSA on the road by 189 yards. The Cats rolled to a 48-14 win last year and they have covered 6 of the last 7 vs OSU. While Kansas State has a tendency to roll bit at home vs OSU, the games in Stillwater have been down to the wire nail-biters. 6 of the last 7 games @ Okie State have been decided by a TD or less. Snyder has been a master as an underdog covering 22 of his last 30 in that spot and we think KSU has a great shot to win this game. Take the points. |
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10-03-15 | Ohio State -21.5 v. Indiana | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -21.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET Hoosiers head coach Urban Meyer is going to bust loose with a big win eventually and we feel it comes this week in a conference game against Indiana who is 4-0. After being anointed as the best team in college football to start the season the Buckeyes have received some negative ink from the media for a few lackluster games offensively. That changes this week when they take on an Indiana team that is horrendous defensively allowing an average of 500 yards per game, 6.4 yards per play and 32PPG. What makes IU's defensive numbers worse is that they've come against weak competition. Indiana is 42nd in the nation in yards per point defense but again, those numbers are misleading considering who they've played. IU's opponents include Wake Forest who is 109th in yards per point offense, Florida International who is 117th in yards per point and Western Kentucky who is 47th in YPPT. Their one other opponent was Southern Illinois who isn't even an FBS team and they allowed the SIU to put up 47 points and 659 total yards of offense! Last season OSU was minus -36.5 points at home and won 42-27 with Indiana scoring a late TD with around a minute to play. Meyer has publicly stated he wasn't happy with how his defense played in last year's game against Indiana so don't expect them to let up in this one. Ohio State is 5th in total defense this season allowing opponents to gain just 253 yards per game and will be by far the best defensive unit the Hoosiers have faced all season. Ohio State is looking for some style points and won't be afraid to run this one up. Lay it with the Buckeyes. |
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10-03-15 | Alabama +1.5 v. Georgia | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Alabama +1.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET on CBS - ASA's SEC GAME OF THE WEEK This is the first time in 72 games that Alabama has been an underdog and you can bet Nick Saban is using that as motivation here. Much has been made of Bama being “down” this year partly due to the fact they lost at home to Ole Miss a few weeks ago. Let’s not forget the Tide had a -5 turnover ratio in that game alone and still had the ball late with a chance to win. Bama has already played Wisconsin & Ole Miss while UGA has yet to be tested playing UL Monroe, Vandy, South Carolina, and Southern. Much has been made of how well UGA QB Lambert has played but let’s not forget he was poor at Virginia and couldn’t even win the starting job for the Cavs this year which is whay he transferred. We’ll see how he does against a formidable opponent. The question is this, do you trust Mark Richt in this spot as a small favorite or Nick Saban as an underdog? Saban and Alabama are used to winning big games while UGA seems to underachieve on a yearly basis. Saban hasn’t lost 2 conference games in a season since 2010 and they are already 0-1 and in must win mode. Take the points here as Bama wins outright. |
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10-03-15 | Iowa +7 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 43 h 40 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Iowa +7 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET Wisconsin has been without top RB Corey Clement for most of the season (carried it just 8 times vs Alabama) and after an MRI revealed a sports hernia, they will be without him for at least another month. We felt that would really affect this team once they hit their tough competition which comes in the form of Iowa this Saturday. Wisconsin obviously relies heavily on the run but going into last weekend’s game vs Hawaii, the Badgers were dead last in the Big Ten in rushing (142 YPG). Their offensive line is still quite young and a work in progress. While they did look much better vs the Rainbows last week, the Iowa stop unit should give them problems especially with Clement on the bench. Iowa is allowing just 100 YPG rushing which is 18th nationally. The Hawkeyes have rolled out to a 4-0 record scoring 30+ points in 3 of their 4 games. QB CJ Beathard has been an upgrade over former starter Jake Rudock (now at Michigan). Beathard has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards on 68% completions. He also brings the running dimension to the position with already over 150 rushing on the year. Wisconsin and Iowa played a tight one last year with the Badgers prevailing 26-24. The Badgers might be a step below or close to even with last year’s team while Iowa is vastly improved in our opinion. The Hawks are 20-9 ATS when getting a TD or more (watch this line – it’s currently -7) and we give them a solid shot at an “upset” here. Take the points in another slobberknocker between these two rivals. |
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10-03-15 | Purdue +21.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue +21.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 12 PM ET The Spartans, despite their 4-0 record, have not been all that impressive this year. They are 0-4 ATS and have actually been outgained in 3 of their 4 games. Oregon, Air Force, & Central Michigan all put up more yardage than MSU in their head to head match ups. For the season, Sparty has gained 1,489 yards and allowed 1,583. And that’s against fairly marginal competition outside of Oregon and even that tight win is now not quite as impressive as the Ducks were crushed at home last week by Utah. As poor as Purdue has been the last two years (1-15 Big Ten record) they have given Michigan State some problems. Last season they played host to Sparty and lost 45-31 as a 21-point dog (cover for Boilers). That contest was a down to the wire situation as MSU led just 38-31 with under 2:00 remaining in the game. Two years ago they went into East Lansing as a 4 TD underdog and that was also a nailbiter for the Spartans as they led just 7-0 in the 4th quarter before winning 14-0 which included a defensive TD (another easy cover for Purdue). The last time Purdue lost by more than 20 points to MSU was back in 1996. Turnovers have been a big problem for the 1-3 Boilers. In their first 3 games they coughed the ball up 9 times. Because of that head coach Darrell Hazell made a switch at QB last week putting freshman David Blough under center and benching Austin Appleby. Blough had a solid opening performance completing 29 of 39 for 340 yards and 2 TD’s with only one turnover. They lost 35-28 to a solid Bowling Green team but the game was tied a 28 late and Purdue missed a 32 yard FG that would have given them the lead. They could be sitting with a much better record as last week’s game was in reach and their season opener was lost @ Marshall due to two pick 6’s thrown by Appleby. Purdue gives Michigan State a game this week and keeps it inside this big number. |
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10-01-15 | Baltimore Ravens -144 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BALTIMORE RAVENS Tonight we'll play on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Steelers. The Baltimore Ravens are the best 0-3 team in the league and are essentially 3 plays away from being 3-0. This team was our preseason pick to go to the Super Bowl and the talent is still in place to win games, they just need to catch some breaks. The Steelers suffered a huge blow last week when they lost Big Ben to a knee injury which will sideline him 4-6 weeks. Pittsburgh will turn to QB Michael Vick tonight who they just brought into camp a few weeks ago. Vick is not the player he used to be and his record as a starter reflects that as he's just 6-13 SU his last 19 games. These two teams have very similar statistics offensively and defensively but again the Steelers numbers came with Ben Roethlisberger running the offense. The Steelers managed just 12 points offensively on 259 yards of offense last week in St Louis and that was with Big Ben going 20 of 24 for 192 yards passing. Yes, history says the Ravens have a zero percent chance to make the playoffs but realistically they could still win the AFC North but it has to start tonight. Don't you find it strange an 0-3 team is favored on the road in a bitter rivalry like this one? The bet here is on Baltimore! |
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10-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +6.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +6.5 over Miami FL - Thursday at 7:30 PM ET Our feeling is the Bearcats are much better than their 2-2 record might indicate. They’ve outgained every opponent this year by almost 1,000 combined yards! Their losses to Temple and Memphis were gifts given to the opposition. They outgained Temple by a whopping 261 yards and Memphis by 182. The problem in those games were turnovers as they were -4 vs Temple and -2 vs Memphis. Keep those even, or close, and this team is sitting at 4-0 and this line is nowhere near where it sits right now. We realize Cincy will be most likely playing without QB Kiel, but his replacement last week, Hayden Moore, came in and threw for a school record 557 yards and now he’s had a full week to practice with that one’s. Miami continues to get treated as if they are an elite or at least close to elite program. They are not. The Canes are 3-0 this year but lucky to be sitting in that spot in our opinion. Two weeks ago they topped FAU 42-20 in what was a very deceiving score. First of all FAU lost their starting QB on the first series of the game and he did not return. Even with that, the game was tied at 20 midway through the third quarter and FAU was -5 in turnovers for the game. The Canes next win was at home and it OT against an OK Nebraska team 36-33. This will be the first time this season that Miami has to leave South Florida. They also have a HUGE game on deck with Florida State so a peak ahead is probably in order here for the Canes. This is a huge home game for Cincy as they don’t often get to host Power 5 teams. When they do, they’ve been money in the bank. The last 4 seasons the Cats have hosted five Power 5 teams (Purdue, NC State, Pitt, Va Tech, and West Virginia) and won 4 of those games with their only loss coming by just 3 points to the Mountaineers. We think Cincinnati has a great shot at the upset here and we’ll grab the points. |
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09-27-15 | Denver Broncos v. Detroit Lions +3 | Top | 24-12 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Detroit +3 over Denver, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT LIGHTS CASH IN Must win game for Detroit who’s playing their home opener. The Lions blew a big lead @ San Diego in the opener and then looked terrible last week @ Minnesota in a loss. Look for them to bounce back and play very well here. They know if they lose, they are in big trouble. In fact, since 1990 there have been 124 teams that started the season 0-3 and only 3 of those teams went onto make the playoffs. Lion QB Stafford will play here after being listed as questionable earlier in the week. Denver is 2-0 but hasn’t been overly impressive in our book. They beat Baltimore 19-13 in the opener and the two teams combined for only 400 total yards. Last week vs KC they won 31-24 but they were outgained and the Chiefs basically handed them the win with 5 turnovers! The Broncs are now on the road for the 2nd straight week and Detroit was a very good 7-1 at home last year. Take the points. |
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09-27-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Baltimore -2 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE WEEK We will play on the Baltimore Ravens minus the short number over Cincinnati. I'll start by saying this, don't over-react to the Ravens 0-2 start OR the Bengals 2-0 start. This Baltimore team is still one of the top 6 or 7 teams in the league and are now backed into a corner and must win this Divisional game. Since 1990 there have been 124 teams that have started the season off by going 0-3 (if Ravens lose) and only 3 have made the postseason so you can see for yourself how important this game is. The Ravens are 35-7 SU at M&T Bank Stadium since 2010 and 56-34-3 ATS as a home chalk since 2000. When playing at home and coming off a loss the previous week the Ravens have a stellar 40-13 SU record since 2000 and have won 8 straight in the role, covering 7 of the last eight. This number is lower than it should be and the Ravens are an obvious 'BUY' this week. |
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09-27-15 | Oakland Raiders v. Cleveland Browns OVER 42.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Over 42.5 Points, Cleveland @ Oakland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH Oakland Raiders young QB Carr had his breakout game last week at home against the Ravens and we don't think that one game was an aberration. What we know for sure is this. The Raiders want and will throw the football a lot in this one as that's how they've built their team. Oakland is 4th in the NFL in pass attempts per game and 9th in passing yards per game. The Raiders brought in some dynamic wide receivers (Crabtree & Cooper combined for 16 receptions for 220 yards & 2 TD's last week) to help Carr and the passing attack which has produced 2.5 passing TD's per game this season. Last week against the Ravens, Carr was 30 of 46 for 351 yards and 3 TD's. Statistically the Browns have a solid pass defense but you must consider who they've played thus far before determining just how good they are. Cleveland has faced the Jets and Titans this season who rank in the bottom nine of the NFL in pass attempts per game. We get help from the Raiders defense here too. Oakland is last in the NFL in yards allowed per game which means Cleveland will score on Sunday too. The Browns have found a big play target of their own with WR Travis Benjamin who has hauled in TD scores of 54, 60 and 50-yards plus a 78-yard punt return for a score. We like the fact the Browns are going back to McCown at QB as he's the much more consistent quarterback in our opinion. Yes, the Browns can look stagnant on offense at times but they won't against this Raider defense. Cleveland is near average in both yards per point averages and yards per point which are better indicators of their offense than their total yards per game. Easy OVER call here! |
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09-26-15 | Appalachian State -8 v. Old Dominion | Top | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 46 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -8 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's NCAAF OFF THE RADAR GAME OF THE MONTH ODU is way down compared to past editions. Their offense is a work in progress (currently 95th nationally in scoring offense) after losing all everything QB Heinicke to graduation (now with the Vikings). His replacement is a freshman Shuler Bentley who is averaging only 150 YPG passing. Because of that they rely heavily on the run yet were held to -3 yards rushing last week at home vs NC State. They now face the 13th ranked rush defense in the nation, an Appalachian State stop unit that held Clemson to just 3.2 YPC a few weeks ago. Speaking of ODU’s game with NC State last Saturday, it was a huge home game for them to get a Power 5 team to visit and they were whipped 38-14 with the Monarchs gaining only 148 total yards. There was a lot of build up to that game so a letdown is on order here. Meanwhile, Appalachian State has had 2 full weeks off to get ready as they had a bye last Saturday and they are one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters back from last year. ODU is 2-1 with wins over Eastern Michigan (123rd ranked FBS team out of 128) & Norfolk State (FCS team). App State is 1-1 with a blowout win vs Howard (FCS team) and a loss to #12 Clemson. So we can argue these teams have played a very similar schedule thus far. Despite the similar slates, App State is +197 YPG, +201 YPG rushing, and +7.7 first downs per game. ODU is -41 YPG, -16 YPG rushing, and -3.3 first downs per game. App State is the better team here and in a much better situation. |
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09-26-15 | BYU v. Michigan -5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 67 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Michigan -5 over BYU, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET - ASA's BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH We don’t envision BYU having much left in the tank for this one. They opened the season with the infamous hail-mary win @ Nebraska then came home and basically beat Boise in a similar way. Then last week they traveled to UCLA and had the Bruins on the ropes. The Bruins first lead of the game came with just over 3:00 remaining when they scored a TD to take a 24-23 lead. BYU was driving in UCLA territory for a potential game winning FG attempt when their young QB Tanner Mangum threw an interception ending the game. The Cougs outgained UCLA by a few yards in the game, however they also ran a whopping 89 plays to just 61 for UCLA. Now they have to travel again this Saturday which will be their 3rd time in 4 weeks. This will be a tired team playing an early game on Saturday. Michigan is starting to click the last few weeks in Jim Harbaugh’s new system. Their defense was very good last year and looks like it will be one of the better stop units in the country this year. They are currently 7th nationally total defense allowing just 236 YPG. The Michigan defense has allowed only 4 offensive TD’s in 3 games. After struggling to run the ball against Utah in their season opener, Michigan has made a concerted effort to pound their last two opponents on the ground with 87 rushing attempts in those two games combined. BYU’s defense was solid against the run the first two weeks but they looked worn down last week as UCLA lit them up for 296 yards rushing on 7.8 YPC. We see a very good Michigan defense banging on BYU’s offense all day long while pounding them on the ground offensively. BYU will slowly wear down and Michigan takes control in the 2nd half. We like the Wolverines in this situation. |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Tonight we play OVER in the Jets @ Colts game. Expect plenty of points tonight when these two teams face off with an improved Jets offense and the explosive Colts offense. New York put up 31-points in the opener against a Browns defense that was 9th in the NFL last season in points allowed per game at just 21.1PPG. New York had balance between the running game and passing attack and journeyman QB Fitzpatrick was an efficient 15 of 24 for 179 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT. Looking at the bigger picture the Jets last three games in the preseason they put up 30, 28, and 24 points respectively and then 31 in week #1. We know the Colts are going to score points tonight after struggling to score 14 in the opener. Indianapolis had one of the best offensive units in the NFL last season and they added pieces this year which should make them better yet. The Colts averaged 27PPG in 2014, 6th best in the NFL and they threw it 62% of the time which also helps betting 'overs'. Defensively the Colts were average last season allowing 23PPG while the over-hyped Jets were 24th in scoring D giving up an average of 25PPG. Last season Vegas posted Totals on the Colts game of 46 or less points four times and the 'over' cashed 3 of 4. The average O/U set by Vegas on Indy games last season was 50PPG so we're getting value here with a Total well below that. We are on the OVER here! |
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09-20-15 | Baltimore Ravens -6 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 33-37 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Baltimore -6 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - ASA's SUPER CHALK BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK Baltimore has high hopes this year coming off their playoff run last year (lost tight game to New England) and this has now become a must win for them. The Ravens lost a tight game last week @ Denver 19-13. It was a defensive battle as they faced a top notch Denver defense and neither team took a snap in the redzone until there was less than 4:00 remaining in the game. Those offensive struggles should get rectified quickly this Sunday facing a Raider defense that gave up 33 points and almost 400 yards to Cincinnati last week. It could have been worse as the Bengals called off the dogs in the 4th quarter up 33-0 and Oakland scored 13 meaningless points late. The Silver & Black are also banged up in the defensive backfield with both starting safeties (Woodson & Allen) out and starting CB Hayden possibly out. Raider QB Carr was also hurt last week (hand) and will be back this Sunday but not at 100%. Oakland will have all kinds of trouble offensively against a Baltimore defense that shut down the Broncos to just 219 total yards last week. They are learning new systems on both sides of the ball under new head coach Jack Del Rio and it showed on the field last week. The Ravens are a great bounce back team winning 26 of their last 32 games SU coming off a loss and will be laser focused here. We take the much better team in a must win spot and look for BALTIMORE to win by double digits. |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | Top | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH! This one sets up beautifully. Pitt is off a Thursday night loss @ New England. Not really unexpected as the Pats were out for blood after the Brady off-season situation and the fact that Brady was reinstated just a few days earlier. Pitt actually had a huge game offensively putting up 464 yards which was 103 yards more than the mighty Pats offense. Two missed FG’s and a turnover cost them a shot at the big road win (lost 28-21). The Steelers can’t afford to get off to a 2-0 start so this is a huge home game for them. San Fran pulled a home upset on Monday night beating Minnesota 20-3. The Niners rolled up 230 yards rushing on Minnesota but that won’t happen here. Pitt allowed only 80 yards on 24 carries to the Pats last week and you think they’ll be keying on the run this week? If the Steelers have a defensive weakness is it vs the pass and we don’t think SF and Kaepernick can take advantage of that. While the Steelers have had a full 10 days to get ready for this must win spot, San Fran has a short week to deal with coming off a Monday night LATE game (didn’t finish until after 1:00 AM ET) in the weird opening week Monday night format the NFL has adopted. We love this spot for PITTSBURGH and we’re laying the wood. |
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09-20-15 | New England Patriots +1 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +1 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE WEEK Everyone is going crazy and putting Buffalo into the Super Bowl after one week. Sure they looked good against a one-man Colts team (Bills were +3 in turnovers) but now they have to refocus and face the Pats who’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game. A Patriots team that has DOMINATED this series winning 21 of the last 23 meetings. Not only that, 1 of those 2 Buffalo wins came last year in the finale when New England had NOTHING to play for and Brady sat the entire second half. Even with that the first downs, yardage and time of possession in that game were almost dead even. Thus, we consider the Pats record vs Buffalo to actually be 21-1 the last 22 “meaningful” meetings. This isn’t simply a recent phenomenon as going back to 1994, New England is 33-9 SU vs Buffalo with a spread mark of 25-15-2. We realize the Buffalo defense is good, but this Patriot team knows them very well. In the one game where Brady actually played to win and played the full game last season he beat the Bills in Buffalo 37-22 throwing for 346 yards and 4 TD’s. Bills QB Tyrod Taylor made his 1st start ever last year and played well. However, we have a huge edge at the key position on the field with all-time great Brady who has thrown for over 53,000 yards in his career and 396 TD’s. Where this line is set, the experts are obviously expecting a close game. The question is, in a close game down the stretch who would you trust more to pull out a win, Brady or Tyrod Taylor? Bills may also be without RB LeSean McCoy who is obviously a key cog in their offensive gameplan. Let’s also throw in New England’s 43-21-2 ATS record with revenge as well. Take NEW ENGLAND on Sunday |
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09-19-15 | Ole Miss v. Alabama UNDER 53 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 53 points - Ole Miss @ Alabama, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET on ESPN This one sets up nicely for the UNDER. First we have two of the best defenses in college football. Probably 2 Top 5 type defenses in fact. Last year Ole Miss ranked #1 nationally allowing just 17 PPPG and Bama was #5 in the country giving up 18. They were 1st and 2nd nationally in offensive TD’s per game allowed at 1.7 & 1.8. This year the Rebs defense should be at or at least very close to the level they were last year while the Tide defense should actually be quite a bit better. Both defenses are loaded with NFL prospects and the speed will make it tough for either offense to get on track. Speaking of offense, both teams have “green” QB’s starting for the first time this year. Neither have played against the opposing defense in past year’s giving the stop units the big edge here. Last year these two faced off and totaled just 40 points with Mississippi winning 23-17. The year before they put up just 25 total points. The two have combined to score just 5 offensive TD’s in those two games. We’re going to discount the offensive outputs thus far for these two. Bama scored 35 on a Wisconsin defense that is good, however they were very young and banged up at LB and lost their top player just a few plays into the game. Last week they scored 37 on Middle Tennessee State. The Ole Miss offense has put up huge numbers but their opponents were UT Martin & Fresno State. It all comes to a halt on Saturday. UNDER is the play here. |
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09-19-15 | Florida -3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10-STAR PLAY ON Florida (-3.5) over Kentucky - Saturday, 7 PM ET - ASA's SEC GAME OF THE MONTH We like the spot to go against the Wildcats here and play on an undervalued Gators team. Situational wise the Cats are coming off a HUGE road win over South Carolina which snapped a 22 game losing streak away from home. Florida meanwhile started the season with two relatively easy games against New Mexico and East Carolina. The Gators have outgained their opponents 979 total yards to just 533 while averaging a ridiculous 6.89 yards per play. They are averaging just under 5.0 yards per rush while allowing just 1.16YPR and outscored those two teams by 28PPG. Kentucky squeaked by UL Lafayette in the opener 40-33 at home, gave up 479 total yards and were outgained by 44 yards. They also had a 15 minute time of possession deficit in that game. UK then won last week in South Carolina over an over-rated Gamecocks team despite being outgained again 417 to 399 yards. After just two games the Wildcats are 100th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per attempt at 5.5YPC (Cats 75th in 2014 allowing 4.5YPC). That weakness plays right into a Gators team that is 39th in the nation in yards per carry this season despite calling off the dogs in week 1 versus New Mexico and playing conservative last week versus ECU. Florida can make some noise this season as they are deep and talented (QB's Grier & Harris along with RB Taylor) and Kentucky will have their full attention this week after their upset win last week. The Gators are 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings and have beaten this Kentucky team 34 of the last 35 meetings. No that's not a typo...34 & 1 SU last 35 meetings including 13 straight wins on this field. Just looking at the last 10 years the Gators are 10-0 SU against the Wildcats and the average winning margin has been 28PPG. If Florida is truly as good as we believe they are, then this is going to be a BLOWOUT! |
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09-19-15 | Air Force +26 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10-STAR PLAY ON Air Force (+26) over Michigan State, Saturday 12 PM ET - ASA's BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK This is a very dangerous game for MSU. They are obviously off their huge win vs Oregon last week, a game that was still undecided with under 1:00 remaining. It was a game that Sparty had circled for a year and their entire off-season was focused on getting a win in that game. Talk about a massive letdown spot for them. Not only that, we’re not talking about a horrible opponent here. Air Force is always a tough, disciplined team and they were 10-3 a year ago. The Falcons also run a tough run based offense that is tough to prepare for on short notice when a defense isn’t used to seeing it. After leading the NCAA in rush attempts per game last year at 60, the Falcons are averaging 69 rush attempts per game this year. That will eat clock and shorten this game making it very tough for an already disinterested team to cover a big number. AF’s starting QB Romine was injured last week and is out the remainder of the year but his replacement Roberts has starting experience. The knock on Roberts is he doesn’t throw it as well as Romine, although that weakness is diminished when Air Force averages only 11 pass attempts per game. Roberts, however, is a very good runner. Since 1990, the Falcons have been dogged by 24 points or more just TWICE (they are 2-0 ATS in those games). This is a game that Michigan State will just want to win and move on. We envision this very similar to MSU’s first game this year when they when they got by Western Michigan by 13 points as they were pointing more toward their game with Oregon. Really tough spot to cover this large number. |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 42 points - Denver @ Kansas City, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - ASA's 10* THURSDAY TOTAL SLAM This year’s Denver offense is light year’s different than last year’s edition. Under new coach Gary Kubiak, this team has QB Peyton Manning under center much more often (rather than shotgun) and they want to run the ball. With Manning’s diminishing abilities and arm strength to go along with a top tier defense a conservative offense is how this team will win games this year. Manning has directed the Broncos on 20 offensive drives this year (pre & regular season) and not one has resulted in a TD. In Denver’s game last week vs Baltimore, the two teams combined for 32 points and just 400 yards of total offense. Neither team took a single snap inside the others red zone (inside the 20) until there was just 3:55 left in the game. Denver won the game 19-13 and neither team scored an offensive TD. Both TD’s in the game were scored in interceptions. KC lit up the scoreboard early last week pushing to a 27-9 halftime lead in Houston. However, much of that was handed to them as 2 of their 3 TD drives in the game came on a 13 yard drive & a 7 yard drive after Texan turnovers. KC averaged only 4.9 YPPG and didn’t score in the 2nd half holding on to win 27-20. The KC offense has been known for their grind in out type game. They are not a high flying explosive offense. The Chiefs haven’t completed a TD pass to a WR since the 2013 season. Now they face what many consider one of the top few defenses in the NFL. Despite Denver’s pass offensive prowess, only 1 of the last 9 meetings have topped 45 points. These teams know each other very well and a division game usually brings out an extra level of emotion. These teams are now both defensive minded squads. We expect this game to be a low scoring grinder and we take the UNDER. |
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09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS + First of all we’ll talk about the pointspread in this game. In late summer Vegas came out with a line of San Francisco as a 3 point favorite. The line has been bet all the way to the Vikings a road favorite in this game. Since 2011 the Vikings have a 5-13-1 ATS record as a favorite, 0-3 as a road chalk, which are both the worst numbers in the NFL in that time. Much has been made about the 49ers offseason with the loss of coach Harbaugh and several defensive starters but we feel this team isn’t going to fall as far as many think. Offensively they return QB Kaepernick who is rumored to have been hard at work this offseason and comes into this season in better shape than ever. Let’s not forget Kaepernick threw for over 3300 yards with 19 TD’s in 2014 and also tacked on 639 yards rushing at over 6 yards per carry. The Niners added WR Torrey Smith from Baltimore to pair with veteran Anquan Boldin giving San Francisco a dynamic passing attack. Boldin has 168 receptions the past two years in San Fran with 12 of those going for TD’s. Smith is coming off an 11 TD season with the Ravens and has a career average 16.9 yards per catch which gives the 49ers the homerun threat they’ve needed on the outside. Yes, the Forty Niners also lost aging veteran running back Frank Gore but his replacement Carlos Hyde looked good in the preseason with 13 carries for 73 yards (5.6YPC). Yes, the Vikings get a huge boost this year with the return of running back Adrian Peterson but he’s gotten a year older and missed an entire season so don’t expect monster numbers in his debut back in the lineup. This game sets up to be a grinder with both teams working hard to establish the rush and we feel SF has a slight advantage here against Vikings defense that ranked 25th in the NFL last season in stopping the run. Once the ground game is established the play action pass opens up for Kaepernick. Do you know how rare it is for San Francisco to be a home dog? It’s happened just 4 times since 2009 and they are 3-0-1 ATS. Value bet on SF. |
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09-13-15 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +6.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We peg the Cowboys as a bit over rated coming into the season after their 12-4 run to the top of the NFC East last year. The loss of RB DeMarco Murray will be a big one in our opinion. He just meant too much to this team leading the league in rushing yards, rushing attempts, and rushing TD’s. The Boys are attempting to replace him with 3 journeymen type RB’s which simply isn’t going to cut it. We don’t put a bunch of stock in the pre-season, however we feel you need to show at least some progress. The Dallas offense was horrible scoring only 41 total points and Romo attempted only 7 passes the entire pre-season. The starting O Line didn’t play a single snap together as a whole during the pre-season. With that, we would expect some rust offensively for the Cowboys in this game. Defensively they were shaky at best last year (21st in total defense) and will be without two of their top players as CB Scandrick is out for the year and DE Hardy is serving a suspension. In their two games last year, Dallas won by 10 & 3 points but both games and both were down to the wire with the Cowboys kicking a FG with under 1:00 remaining in the first game to extend the margin to 10. The Giants actually had 9 more first downs in those two games and the total combined yardage was very close with the NYG putting up 769 yards while Dallas accumulated 808. The Giants have the best road spread record in the NFL since 2007 going 40-27-1 ATS. NYG QB Manning has been a profit making road QB with a 46-40 SU record and 49-35-2 ATS away from home. On the flip side, the Cowboys have been a massive money burner as a home favorite covering just 8 of their last 32 in that situation. Too many points in a game we feel will again come down to the wire. |
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09-13-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 146 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER 49 points - Baltimore @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK We think the Denver totals will be set a little high early in the season before the oddsmakers and the bettors adjust. Don’t expect this to be juggernaut on offense they were last season, especially early in the year. They are still feeling their way through a new offensive system with first year head coach Gary Kubiak. QB Peyton Manning summed it up recently by saying, "Would we like to be a finely-tuned machine going into Week 1? Sure. With some newness, some different players and some different things that we're doing, that's what we're working toward.” Speaking of Manning, his production dropped off considerably late last season and we’re pretty confident he’s not ready to start the season at his peak. His pre-season stats suggest he may not be over his “lull” at the end of last season and he is well past his prime. The Broncos didn’t reach the endzone one time in the pre-season with Manning at QB and he threw for only 176 yards. Don’t be at all surprised if Kubiak relies much more on the running game than they have in the past with Anderson & Hillman a very good 1-2 punch. While much is made of Denver’s offense, let’s not forget their defense was one of the best in the NFL last year and will be again this season. They allowed just 308 YPG (3rd in the NFL) on only 4.8 yards per play (2nd in the NFL) last year. They allowed just 15 PPG in their 4 pre-season games. Baltimore is no slouch defensively either. They were a top 10 team in YPP allowed last season and allowed just 344 YPG. Offensively, we don’t trust QB Joe Flacco to light up this very good Denver defense. Look for this to be a low scoring game with both teams relying on field position and defense. This total is set as though this will be a shootout and we don’t see it. Take the UNDER. |