#924 ASA PLAY ON Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - You might think Antonio Senzatela has bad numbers only because he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, he actually is 1-6 with a 6.32 ERA on the road so it is not as if things have been great for him away from Coors Field. The Red Sox Lucas Giolito, on the other hand, had a couple of uglier home starts this season but has since completely turned things around.  Giolito is in fantastic current form as he has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 20 hits in 32 and 2/3 innings over his last 5 starts! He delivered quality starts in all 5 starts and that included a pair of gems here at home in Fenway Park.  Boston also has a solid bullpen while Colorado's bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors.  The Rockies, with yet another very ugly loss yesterday (we were on Boston -1.5 in the 10-2 win yesterday), have dropped to 11-35 on the road and 8-50 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rockies have lost 14 of 18 games and the Red Sox have won 5 straight and 8 of the last 10 games! Also, Boston is 16-10 in interleague action and 39 of their 48 wins this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Rockies last 24 losses featured 20 defeats by 2 or more runs! The Red Sox have scored 79 runs in their last 8 wins so they are not just beating teams recently, they are blowing them out. Similar to Monday's 9-3 win and Tuesday's 10-2 win, another blowout victory here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We got to looking at this match-up because the red-hot Blue Jays have won 9 in a row and this led us to what should be a solid over here!  The White Sox are scoring a little better as they have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 4 games.  The Blue Jays have scored 6.4 runs per game in their last 14 games.  Chris Bassitt has been fantastic in Toronto this season but he has been a different pitcher on the road where he has struggled to the tune of a 2-4 record with a 6.38 ERA.  Chicago's Aaron Civale recently came to the White Sox from Milwaukee.  The change of scenery has not helped him much yet.  Civale has allowed 23 hits and walked 11 for a total of 34 baserunners in 21 innings over his first 4 outings for the White Sox.  That spells trouble against a hot Toronto team.  The Blue Jays have had 6 of the last 8 road games total at least 9 runs and this one should get there as well.  The White Sox last 3 games have all reached the double digit mark in runs.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 to 12 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - You might think Kyle Freeland has bad numbers only because he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, he actually is 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA on the road so it is not as if things have been great for him away from Coors Field. The Red Sox Brayan Bello has a 2.97 ERA over his last 6 starts and he delivered quality starts in all 5 starts he made in the month of June! The Rockies are 11-34 on the road and 8-49 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rockies have lost 13 of 17 games and the Red Sox have won 4 straight and 7 of the last 9 games! Also, Boston is 15-10 in interleague action and 38 of their 47 wins this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Rockies last 23 losses featured 19 defeats by 2 or more runs! The Brewers have scored 69 runs in their last 7 wins so they are not just beating teams recently, they are blowing them out. Similar to Monday's 9-3 win, another blowout here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#914: ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -150 vs Cleveland Guardians @ 8:10 ET Monday - The Guardians have lost 10 in a row!  Cleveland is 18-37 against teams that currently have a winning record this season.  The Astros are the top team in the AL West and have won 3 straight games and are 32-14 at home this season!  We get line value here because Houston is expected to start rookie left-hander Colton Gordon and his overall numbers are not impressive.  However, the Guardians just can not hit right now and so Gordon is likely to have one of his better outings of the season here at home.  Gordon is coming off a rough outing to begin July but it was at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado and the southpaw is coming off a June in which he delivered a 3-0 record with a 2.14 ERA.  The Guardians are expected to start Tanner Bibee here and he has a low ERA at home this season but he is 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA on the road so far this season.  Since May 23rd the Astros have just 10 losses as they have a 29-10 record since then!  Compare that to a Guardians team that has 10 losses just in its last 10 games alone!  The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in 6 straight games!  Cleveland has been held to 2 or less runs in 8 of the last 10 games!  This is a great spot with a moderate, yet reasonable, price on a strong home team facing a road team that is in an epic slump right now and we like the Astros here on Monday. 

#959 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Tigers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Cleveland Guardians, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Guardians have lost 9 straight games.  We are well aware of the fact that the last 4 of those defeats have been by one run but this followed a stretch where each of their 7 losses were by 2 or more runs.  The big key though is that the Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal here and Detroit is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and all 5 wins were by at least a 2 run margin.  The Guardians slump is likely to continue here as Skubal already dominated Cleveland when he faced them in May and delivered a complete game 2-hit shutout in which he struck out 13 also!  As for the Guardians starter, Gavin Williams, look for continued struggles here.  Williams has allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings over his last two starts and he also walked 7 while striking out just 4 in those 2 outings.  The Tigers have won 8 of 12 and should dominate again here with their ace on the mound Sunday afternoon.  A blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - Action on pitchers as Drew Pomeranz is expected to just be an opener here. Bullpen game for Cubs as the injury to starter Jameson Taillon has them pitching-thin and guys like Jordan Wicks and Chris Flexen will try to fill the gaps for Chicago. Considering the incredible history the Cubs have which dates all the way back to 1903 as the Cubs and 1876 in the National League and 1870 as a franchise, would you believe they set an ALL TIME franchise record yesterday for home runs? Indeed the Cubs hit EIGHT homers in an incredible slugfest and it is a minor miracle the game only totaled 12 runs as the Cardinals also went deep once! In any event, we are expecting another slugfest here and we had our eyes on this Saturday match-up all along. Very hot weather for this one and a solid south breeze is again in the forecast here! The wind is likely to be blowing out to center at a strong clip all afternoon! These are the kinds of games at Wrigley Field that can result in some of the craziest outcomes with both teams slugging it out back and forth all game long. The key here is that Matthew Liberatore just faced the Cubs in St Louis so he is giving them a quick 2nd look and the month of June was not good for him overall! The Cardinals southpaw is off a 6-inning shutout of Cleveland but the Guardians are struggling and he walked 5 in that.one. Note that, prior to that start, he allowed 20 earned runs over 27 innings spanning his last 5 starts and there should be plenty of contact at the plate and when you have contact in weather conditions like this at Wrigley Field it plays out as a very small ballpark. Just as we saw in yesterday's game, these will be tough conditions for a pitcher.  Chicago ranks 3rd in the majors for slugging percentage (.440) in day games. The Cardinals have scored 8 runs in BOTH of their wins in the season series this season while the Cubs have scored at least 8 runs in 2 of their 3 wins. We just can't see anything less than a dozen runs here today at a minimum!  As noted above, there were 9 homers hit in yesterday's game and today is again hot and breezy like yesterday's game was! This one should be an absolute slugfest at Wrigley. Our computer math model projecting 13 to 15 runs here.  We are very strong on the Over in this one!  

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Even though these two teams have not exactly been knocking the cover off the ball at the plate of late, this is still a great spot for an over as Kumar Rocker is off a rare better road start though he still allowed 8 baserunners in 5 innings of work so he was fortunate the damage was not more than 2 earned runs.  He has struggled badly on the road this season and we expect Rocker will again get rocked in this one after a rare, slightly better road start! Rocker is 1-4 with an 11.34 ERA in his 5 road starts this season.  As for Padres starter Randy Vasquez, he is coming off a bad start versus the Reds and he really labored in a number of his outings in the month of June.  The Padres have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 10 home games.  The Rangers, aided by some extra innings game in the stretch, have seen their confidence on the rise at the plate thanks to winning 5 of the last 8 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch.  Look for both starting pitchers to struggle in this one and that sets the tone for a game that should get into double digits Friday in San Diego.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 to 12 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one. 

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:35 PM ET - Possible pitchers duel.  Jacob Lopez the expected starter for the Athletics and he has struck out 38 in 27 innings this month as he is having a great June.  He has been particularly dominant over his last 4 starts with only 1 earned run allowed on 14 hits in 23 innings!  Considering those phenomenal numbers plus all the strikeouts for Lopez, we don't expect much from the Rays lineup here.  At the same time, look for the Tampa Bay starter to also deliver a gem here.  Drew Rasmussen is 6-1 since mid-May and has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in his last 8 starts!  Yes, just 1 earned run allowed per start spanning his last 8 starts!  The Athletics enter this one on a 2-6 run and they have scored an average of only 1.8 runs in those 6 losses!  As for the Rays, they are off a 5-1 loss which was the 4th time in the last 6 games that their game has totaled 6 or less runs. Our computer math model projects a total of only 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.  

#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON Detroit Tigers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins, after yesterday's 10-5 beatdown, have now lost 16 of 22 games!  The Tigers have won 4 of 6 games and also are 29-14 at home this season and each of their last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs so we are very comfortable with the run line here.  Part of the reason for that comfort level here is certainly a big pitching edge as well.  The Twins Chris Paddack has allowed 16 earned runs on 23 hits in 14 innings spanning his last 3 starts.  A brutally tough stretch for him.  As for the Tigers Tarik Skubal, he is having another dominating season and yet we catch him off a rare subpar outing.  It was not brutal but was not Skubal-like numbers and he is sure to respond here at home.  Prior to allowing 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start, Skubal allowed a TOTAL of only 3 earned runs over his 5 preceding starts!  He has been in top form while Paddack, on the other hand, has resumed his early season struggles.  The point is that this sets up as a starting pitching mismatch and also note that the Tigers bullpen ERA is 13th in the majors while the Twins bullpen ERA ranks 23rd in the majors.  The Twins are 5-10 against left-handed starters and they are 8 games under .500 on the road this season.  Detroit is 30-14 against teams that currently have a losing record this season.  Paddack has a 3-6 record this season and Skubal is 9-2 on the season with a 2.29 ERA.   All signs point to another strong home win here.  Similar to yesterday's 10-5 win, another blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!  

#958 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - You might think Antonio Senzatela has bad numbers only because he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, he actually is 1-5 with a 5.79 ERA on the road so it is not as if things have been great for him away from Coors Field. The Brewers Quinn Priester has a 3.69 ERA at home this season plus he is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of June! The Rockies are 10-32 on the road and 8-49 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rockies have lost 4 straight and the Brewers have won 3 straight and also are 23-12 when facing teams that are currently below .500 on the season. The Rockies last 17 losses featured 15 defeats by 2 or more runs! The Brewers have scored 66 runs in their last 7 wins so they are not just beating teams recently, they are blowing them out. Similar to yesterday's 10-6 win, another blowout here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - While we are highly unlikely to get anywhere close to the 22-8 final in yesterday's game between these teams, plenty of scoring is again in the forecast here. The Rays have won 10 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Orioles rank 5th in the majors in slugging percentage when at home this season and they are averaging scoring about 5 runs per game at home this season.  Certainly they are going to build off yesterday's 22-8 win and they should pound the Rays Littell as he has allowed 11 homers in his last 4 road starts and has allowed multiple homers in 5 of his last 6 road starts.   The Orioles Eflin started this season strong but then had a 5.64 ERA last month and has a 7.40 ERA this month!  We would not be surprised, given the above scoring stats as well as the trending of these starting pitchers, to see each club again score at least 5 runs in this one.  Either way, double digits should not be a problem here.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one! 

#901: ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -130 @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 ET Friday - The Mets price has dropped today and we love the value with the road favorite here.  Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller is 1-10 this season.  The Pirates are 7-12 against left-handed starters this season and the Mets David Peterson has a 2.98 ERA on the season.  Pittsburgh is 23-42 against teams that currently have a winning record on the season.  The Mets are 25-16 against teams with a losing record and will build off the momentum of B2B wins over the Braves.  The Mets also have the bullpen edge over the Pirates here.  This is a great spot with a reasonable price on a solid road team and we like the Mets here on Friday. 

#912 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants bounce back off yesterday's loss here.  San Francisco is starting Logan Webb here and he is 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his 8 home starts this season.  Miami is starting Edward Cabrera here and he has a 1.52 WHIP on the road.  Cabrera has a decently low road ERA but it is giving us value here because the WHIP shows that he has been in a lot of jams in his road starts.  The Giants are 25-15 at home this season and that is after yesterday's loss.  Miami, after yesterday's win, has won B2B games but the Marlins are still only 16-31 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Miami only has 2 win streaks of more than 2 games this season!  Both ended at 3 games.  7 of the 9 times that Miami has entered a game on a win streak of at least 2 games they have lost that game.  The Giants were on an 11-6 run before yesterday's loss.  5 of the last 6 Miami losses have been by a margin of at least 2 runs and we forecast the same tonight.  SF bullpen ERA ranks #1 in the majors while Miami's ranks 23rd out of 30 teams!  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 7:45 PM ET - Look for plenty of scoring here. This is a match-up of two teams that consistently have been getting involved in high-scoring games recently and it has continued into this series.  The Cardinals have won the first two games by a combined score of 16 to 9 and have scored 7.5 runs per victory in their current 8-2 run over the last 10 games.  The Cubs have had 6 straight games reach double digits in runs and just like the weather was hot in Chicago at Wrigley Field it is the same here in St Louis right now and the bats stay hot here.  The Cardinals Fedde has a 4.36 ERA at home this season and has not been overly impressive in recent starts.  The Cubs Boyd has been great at home but struggled on the road.  0-3 with a respectable 3.22 ERA in 8 road starts but opponents have hit .272 against him in those road outings and the hot St Louis sticks will give him trouble here!  Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one! 

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Nationals continue their resurgence at the plate.  They won yesterday's game 10 to 6 and have scored 29 runs in the last 4 games and all 4 of those games reached double digits.  We expect a similar result tonight.  Padres starter Bergert has good numbers this season but is a rookie and has made very few starts at the MLB level.  In fact, this will be his first ever home start at the MLB level.  We expect him to struggle some because the Nationals are so strong at the plate right now and, in fact, the Nats did a number on a normally solid Padres bullpen last night too.  We expect more of the same tonight and, speaking of bullpens, the Washington bullpen ERA is 5.95 this season which is dead last in the majors.  The Padres did some damage against it last night and will do the same here.  Also, the Nationals starter Trevor Williams has consistently struggled this season and his recent results have been no different.  Williams is 0-3 in 4 starts this month and he is getting hit at a .313 clip this month.  In looking at the Padres last 8 home games they had one low-scoring loss but averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the other 7 at home.  This total is simply too low given all of the above and we expect both teams to hit very well.  Bergert's low ERA is keeping this total below where it should be and he could struggle in first home start plus he does not work particularly deep in games either.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one with a Top Game!

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox, Monday at 9:38 PM ET - Look for plenty of scoring here. The Angels Jack Kochanowicz has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts including each of his last two home outings as well. His 4 starts this month have seen him complete less than 17 innings yet he allowed 6 homers in these 4 starts.  Buehler is coming off a tough season with the Dodgers in which he went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and now he is also struggling with Boston this season.  Buehler is 5-5 but with a 5.95 ERA overall.  Also, his road numbers are particularly ugly!  Away from home Buehler is 2-4 with a 9.23 ERA this season!  Based on current form, things are not getting any better any time soon either.  Buehler has allowed 21 earned runs in 18 innings over his last 4 starts!  Like Kochanowicz, the long ball has been a problem too with 6 homers allowed in his last 4 starts.  6 of the last 9 Angels home games have totaled at least 9 runs.  The Angels have scored 16 runs in the last 2 games.  The Red Sox are off a high-scoring series in San Francisco where 2 of the 3 games reached at least a dozen runs.  Though the Boston bullpen has been solid this season the Angels bullpen ERA is one of the highest in the majors.  With both starters struggling and the Red Sox bullpen likely called upon too early and the Angels bullpen continuing to struggle, this one should fly over the total.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

#923/924 ASA PLAY ON Over 12 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - Very hot weather for this one and not just a south wind but a strong south wind is in the forecast here!  The wind is likely to be blowing out to center at a strong clip all afternoon!  These are the kinds of games at Wrigley Field that can result in some of the craziest outcomes with both teams slugging it out back and forth all game long.  The key here is neither one of these pitchers has been that impressive of late and there should be plenty of contact at the plate and when you have contact in weather conditions like this at Wrigley Field it plays out as a very small ballpark.  The Cubs Cade Horton is getting hit at a .274 clip in day games this season and with 15 strikeouts in 21 innings which is decent but not great.  He will be pitching to a lot of contact here and the Mariners pounded out 13 hits in their 9-4 win yesterday.  The Cubs had 4 runs on 9 hits yesterday and will do much better than that here.  The Mariners Emerson Hancock has struck out just 7 in 12 innings over his last two starts.  He also has allowed 21 hits in 15 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 road starts.  The Cubs will pound Hancock here as this will absolutely be the toughest hitter-friendly situation he has pitched in so far in his young MLB career.  Remember too that Horton is also a young hurler as he is a rookie for the Cubs so these will be his toughest conditions yet as well.  Chicago ranks 4th in the NL for slugging percentage in day games.  The Mariners rank 4th in the majors for slugging percentage in road games!  There were 6 homers hit in yesterday's game and today is even hotter and windier than yesterday's game was!  This one should be an absolute slugfest at Wrigley. Our computer math model projecting 15 to 16 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 13 or 14 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON 3* Over 8.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - The Cardinals Pallante has a 5.17 ERA at home this season and overall he is struggling this month with 12 earned runs allowed in 14 and 2/3 innings over his 3 starts.  The Reds Singer has a 5.06 ERA on the road this season and opponents are hitting .296 against him on his travels.  The Reds have been trending to the over recently.  6 of their last 7 games have totaled more than 10 runs and the Cardinals have their bats going again as well.  St Louis has scored an average of 7 runs per game during their current 4-1 run last 5 games.  Both bullpens rank 17th or worse in the majors for bullpen ERA.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

#969: ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -160 @ Athletics @ 10:05 ET Wednesday - The Astros are heating up and are 6-1 L7 games and also 16-6 last 22 games!  The Athletics entered this series having won 3 in a row but this followed a 6-28 run so a 3-game sweep at Kansas City did not mean all is suddenly well. In fact, yesterday's 13-3 Houston win is a sign of what to expect tonight as well! The Athletics have gone just 13-24 at home this season and also are 11-32 this season when facing a team that is currently .500 or better on the season.  In this case this is a first versus worst match-up in the AL West.  The Astros Framber Valdez is piling up strikeouts and has averaged 11 per start over his last 3 starts and those outings averaged 7 innings!  Valdez has allowed only 11 earned runs over his last 7 starts!  The Athletics Luis Severino is 0-6 with a 7.10 ERA at home this season!  The Astros have one of the top bullpens in the majors this season while the Athletics are ranked dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA this season.   Again, this one is based on the superior team at a very fair price but you can see why we also like the projected pitching match-up here as well.  Either way, this one should be all Houston!  This is a great spot with a reasonable price on a solid road team and we like the Astros here on Wednesday. 

#953/954 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 or 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 6:45 PM ET - We won with this pick yesterday and will come right back with it again today. Colorado is growing with confidence at the plate as they are off B2B2B wins and overall have been hitting better lately than they were earlier in the season.  In fact, the Rockies have the #1 slugging percentage in the league over the last 15 days with a sparkling .499 slugging percentage.  The Nationals have not fared so well in that regard but their slugging percentage at home this season ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors.  The key here is that Washington will take advantage of facing Marquez in this one.  The Rockies right-hander is 2-8 this season with an ERA of 6.62 and it is not just because of Coors Field.  In fact, he is 1-4 with a 7.91 ERA in his 9 road starts this season and opponents are hitting .349 against him on the road!  As for the Nationals starter here, Mitchell Parker is likely to get hammered.  He has had just one good start in his 9 outings.  In the other 8 outings, he allowed 35 earned runs!  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the NL and the Rockies bullpen is nearly just as bad.  Monday's game featured 5 homers between these teams and then they had 9 homers in yesterday's game!  We look for another slugfest to develop in Washington DC tonight!  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:45 PM ET - We have been watching this one since yesterday when the lines first came out and we wanted to see how the markets reacted today!  We like what we are seeing!  We watched the total closely and the fact that this total has been holding at 9.5 runs (above the key number of 9) confirms that other sharps are looking the same way we are in this game and that it is very likely headed for double digits.  This total is at 9.5 with small juice on the over as of 2 PM ET today.  Colorado is growing with confidence at the plate as they are off B2B wins and overall have been hitting better lately than they were earlier in the season.  In fact, the Rockies have the #5 slugging percentage in the league over the last 15 days.  The Nationals have not fared so well in that regard but their slugging percentage at home this season ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors.  The key here is that Washington will take advantage of facing Senzatela in this one.  The Rockies right-hander is 1-10 this season with an ERA above 7.00 and it is not just because of Coors Field.  In fact, he is 0-5 with a 6.83 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents are hitting .408 against him on the road!  As for the Nationals starter here, Michael Soroka is likely to get hammered.  He has had just one good start in his 5 outings.  In the other 4 outings, he allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits (6 homers!) and 6 walks and 3 hit batters in 22 innings.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the NL and the Rockies bullpen is nearly just as bad.  Yesterday's game featured 5 homers between these teams and we look for another slugfest to develop in Washington DC tonight based on all of the above.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one with a Top Game!

#908: ASA PLAY ON 2* Chicago Cubs Money Line -150 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET Sunday - The Pirates had a recent little 4-game win streak at home but their road struggles continue.  Pittsburgh dropped to 10-24 on the road this season with yesterday's 2-1 loss.  The Pirates also are 19-36 against teams that currently are at .500 or above on the season!  The Cubs, on the other hand, are 22-12 at home this season plus they are 21-6 in games against teams that currently have a losing record on the season.  This is a first versus worst match-up in the NL Central and the Cubs also have a decided pitching edge here.  Chicago's Colin Rea has a 3.67 ERA at home this season plus had a strong start in his only outing against the Pirates this season which was back in May.  Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is 1-9 this season and the win was way back in March and he is 0-9 since then!  The Pirates often struggle to score runs so Keller is unlikely to get much run support here.  Pittsburgh has a .339 slugging percentage this season and that is dead last in the majors.  The Cubs have a .416 slugging percentage in day games and that ranks 8th in the majors while the Pirates .312 slugging percentage in day games is dead last!  This is a great spot with a reasonable price on a solid home team and we like the Cubs here on Sunday. 

#915 ASA PLAY ON 3* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Yankees are in a great spot here.  They have lost B2B games to the Red Sox by 1 run apiece and have not lost 3 straight games in over a month.  They have a decided pitching edge here too.  Max Fried is having a phenomenal season and this includes going 5-0 with an ERA under the 1.00 mark in his day game starts this season!  Fried has been a beast on the mound this season. The Red Sox are expected to start Brayan Bello here and he has an opponents batting average of .285 in home games and .312 in day games.  He has a 1.90 WHIP in his 5 day game starts this season as issuing too many walks has also been a problem for him.  The Yankees are 6-2 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games.  Boston is on a 4-0 game winning streak and, dating back to last July, the Red Sox are 1-4 when they enter a game on a winning streak of 4 or more games.  Pitching mismatch and a Yankees team fully focused on avoiding the sweep.  The road team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#958 ASA PLAY ON 2* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-160) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 6-29 on the road and 7-43 against teams with a winning record this season.  Braves have struggled at times this season but the Rockies have taken struggling to a whole other level this season!  We get some value here because Spencer Strider is a much better pitcher than his 0-5 record this season shows.  He also is trending the right way as he has allowed only 10 hits over nearly 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Based on how he has looked on the mound he is "almost there" and now facing a struggling Colorado team is likely to lead to Strider's first win of the season in a huge way.  The Braves last 10 wins in fact were all by a double digit margin and the average margin of victory was 4.6 runs!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie who faced the Braves (and had some success) earlier this season.  The key here is this is the first time the rookie has had to face the same team twice!  Atlanta gets to him in the rematch!  He has a 6.85 ERA on the season and Dollander was just rocked by the Mets in most recent start.  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#956: ASA PLAY ON 4* Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -120 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET Saturday - We were on the Brewers Thursday in an excellent high value home underdog spot that cashed easily for us with a shutout win.  Now, after another win for Milwaukee in a tight 3-2 game yesterday, the Brewers are in a great spot for us to ride them again here on Saturday.  The Cardinals are 14-20 on the road this season and the Brewers are 22-14 at home.  Overall Milwaukee is on a 13-5 run while the Cardinals have lost 10 of 14 games.  St Louis is starting Pallante here and he has a 6.23 ERA in his last 4 starts and the Brewers send veteran Jose Quintana to the mound here.  He has been great this season as he has had only 1 bad start out of 8 starts this season!  In the other 7 starts he has allowed only 7 earned runs over 39 innings for a minuscule 1.62 ERA!  The Brewers are the hotter team and have home field edge plus the starting pitching edge and their run continues!  This is a great spot with a small price on a solid home team and we like the Brewers here again on Saturday. 

#912 ASA PLAY ON 1.5* Los Angeles Dodgers -185 over San Francisco Giants, Friday at 10:40 PM ET - The Giants Logan Webb, since the start of the 2023 season, has been much stronger at home than on the road.  He went 4-7 with a 4.31 ERA two years ago and last season he was 6-5 with a 4.11 ERA in his road starts.  This season he has again dominated at home but is 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA on the road.  This is a tough spot for him as he faces a Dodgers team that is one of the top slugging teams in the majors plus LA is 23-11 at home this season.  The Giants are only a .500 team in road games this season.  The Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 2.20 ERA this season and is holding hitters to a .186 batting average on the season.  The Giants are in a tough spot here after the bad loss at Colorado yesterday where they blew the game in the bottom of the 9th.  The Dodgers come into this one 6-3 L9 home games and, unlike SF, the Dodgers were off yesterday and their prior road series was just down the road here in San Diego.  A lot of edges for the home side in this one plus LA took 9 of 13 from SF last season and they get the upper hand again here in their first meeting this season.  We will keep the rating low here but you can see why we are willing to lay the price with the money line on the home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating home win Friday! 

#956: ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Money Line +130 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:40 ET Thursday - This is an excellent high value home underdog spot here.  The Cardinals are 14-18 on the road this season and the Brewers are 20-14 at home.  St Louis is highly over-valued here because Sonny Gray shows the markets a 7-1 record and 3.35 ERA on the season.  However, he also has been much better at home than on the road both seasons since coming to St Louis.  This season he has benefited greatly from having only 4 road starts compared to 9 home starts this season.  In the 4 road starts he has a 4.57 ERA.  Last season he went just 4-4 with a 5.20 ERA on the road.  This season Gray allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits in 6 innings versus the Brewers and last season he got hammered in one of his two starts here in Milwaukee.  We like the Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski here.  This is his MLB debut but he is at home and that helps a lot for a young hurler and this guy comes in highly touted and it was with good reason.   Mosiorowski is a tall flame-thrower that gets plenty of strikeouts and we expect him to give this Cardinals lineup all sorts of trouble here.  He has held hitters to a .170 batting average throughout his minor league career and he has been consistent.  Yes that is the minors but with every level up he has continued to shine and that is why he is here now!  The Brewers are off a 6-2 loss and are a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times they have entered a game coming off a loss in which they allowed at least 2 runs.  Overall Milwaukee is on an 11-5 run while the Cardinals have lost 8 of 12 games.  This is a great spot for a home dog upset and we like the Brewers here Thursday. 

#959 ASA PLAY ON 3* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-145/-150) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET - Yes we are willing to lay 4.35 or 4.5 units to win 2 units when you consider just how horrible the Rockies season has been. We will ride with San Francisco today in this one. The Giants have the #1 bullpen ERA (2.32) on the season. The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league. San Francisco also has a big starting pitching edge here. The Giants Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA in his 4 road appearances (2 starts) this season and has looked sharp away from home.  The Rockies Carson Palmquist is 0-4 this season with an 8.50 ERA and the 24-year old rookie is still adjusting to pitching at the big league level. The Giants are 17-8 against teams that currently have a losing record on the season! The Rockies are 6-25 on the road this season and 5-42 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season. Also, this is a battle of southpaws and though the Giants have struggled versus lefties, the numbers are even more insane for the Rockies as they are 1-17 this season against left-handed starters!  Colorado is on a long-term stretch in which 29 of 36 losses have come by a margin of 2+ runs. Now off a series sweep (again) at the hands of the Mets, we look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Giants hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a big margin.   The Giants are on a 5-game winning streak but all 1-run wins but hitting in Colorado is a much different story and they should explode for big runs in this one while the Rockies misery of a season continues.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!  

#918: ASA PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line -165 vs Seattle Mariners @ 9:40 ET Monday - Arizona in the -165 range even off of 3 straight losses?  Don't be deceived here.  There is a reason this game is priced this way and we like the Diamondbacks plenty in this spot.  The Dbacks had won 4 straight including a sweep of the Braves before then coming up short at Cincinnati.  They are now back home and historically have played well in this ballpark.  The Mariners are off a win but this followed losses in 5 straight games and 10 of their last 13 games!  They send Emerson Hancock to the mound and he has a 5.19 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .289 against him on the season.  He will be facing an Arizona team with a .456 slugging percentage in home games and that ranks them 3rd in the majors!  The Mariners have respectable hitting numbers on the season but if you look at more recent numbers Seattle is struggling.  They are hitting just .230 with a .371 slugging percentage in the last 30 days and that ranks them near the bottom of the majors.  Over that same 30-day timeframe the Diamondbacks slugging percentage ranks 2nd in the majors!  Arizona is expected to have Merrill Kelly on the mound for this one.  He is coming off a gem at Atlanta and that was the 9th time he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in his 13 starts this season.  Also, one of the four he did not allow 2 or less he allowed only 3 earned runs in 6 innings so it was another quality start for him.  His strikeout numbers have been up recently too and this is a great spot against a slumping Seattle lineup.  The Diamondbacks have plenty of edges here and offer solid value with a moderate, yet fair, price to lay and we look for a big Arizona home win in this one.

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - We are surprised this total has been holding at 10.5 runs and it is go time now as we love the value on the over here.  In Friday's game, the Mets went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position and the Rockies went 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position.  Then, in Saturday's game, the Mets went 3 for 14 with runners in scoring position and Colorado went 0 for 8.  There have been so many chances for some bigger innings in this series and it just has not yet come together.  The Rockies had a bullpen game Friday so the Mets have already seen most of the Rockies relievers in this series already plus these teams met last week In New York too.  There is a lot of familiarity and we look for a high-scoring series finale here with very nice weather conditions for this afternoon game at Coors Field.  The Mets start Tylor Megill and he struggled badly (10 hits in 4 innings) in his lone career start here.  Coors Field is so tough on pitchers and Megill enters this one off a start in which he struggled early versus the Dodgers.  If he gets in another early hole early at Colorado it is much tougher for a pitcher to turn things around in this ballpark.  As for Rockies starter Chase Dollander, he has pitched quite well on the road this season but the young hurler has struggled in his starts here in Denver.  There have already been 41 hits in the first two games of this series and we saw some big homers here yesterday.  Dolander and this Rockies bullpen will struggle to contain the Mets here. Dollander had one decent home start this season but the other 3 saw him allow 19 runs (16 earned) in just 12 innings on this mound!  Our computer math model projecting 12 to 13 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 11 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one. 

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants simply can not score runs and they are on an incredible run of low-scoring games.  15 of the Giants last 16 games have totaled 7 or less runs.  Of the 15 that did, 14 of those totaled 6 or less runs.  So we are comfortable even though this total has dropped from a 7.5 to a 7 as of early afternoon Wednesday.  4 of the last 5 Padres games have totaled 5 or less runs.  Also, the pitchers here are expected to be Pivetta and Harrison.  Pivetta is having a strong season with a 2.74 ERA and he has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts!  Harrison has held hitters to a .160 batting average thus far.  Granted he has made only 2 starts and 4 appearances out of the bullpen this season but he looks strong.  Also, the Giants bullpen has the #1 ERA in the majors and the Padres bullpen right up there too with the #3 ERA in the majors.  Our computer math model projects a total of only 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.  

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs (+100) – Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - When you see a match-up in a series in which the first game was 3-2 and in which the second game features two pitchers with ERA numbers each below 2.80 on the season and yet the total is going up from an 8 to an 8.5 in some books you know there is a reason! Indeed there is plenty to like about the over in this match-up. It is going to be a very hot day in Cincinnati and so a warm evening and the type of weather in which this ballpark plays out well for the hitters. Also the Brewers have won 8 straight games and, if you subtract extra innings scoring, still have put up a solid 45 runs in those 8 games! As for the Reds, prior to yesterday's 3-2 home loss, they had been scoring very well at home. In fact, Cincinnati entered this series having won 5 of the last 7 home games and scoring an average of 5.6 runs per game during that stretch. The two bullpens here have both had their challenges this season with the Reds at a 4.01 ERA and the Brewers at a 4.49 ERA. Milwaukee has been heating up at the plate with a slugging percentage ranking in the top 8 in the majors both L7 days and L15 days. About the starting pitching match-up, even though Peralta has good numbers this season, he has struggled in his last two road starts and was fortunate the damage was limited in the most recent one. Those starts were at Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Peralta allowed 9 hits and walked 6 and allowed 5 earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings over those 2 starts. Now he pitches in hitter-friendly Cincinnati! As for Reds starter Hunter Greene, since he came back from the groin injury he has not looked the same. He lasted just 4 innings in his first start back and had command issues and then he allowed 7 hits in 5 innings and his strikeouts were way down in his 2nd start. Facing a Brewers team that is the hottest in the majors right now will surely not help him in this one! Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 here that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.

#953: ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Money Line +100 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - Milwaukee has won 7 straight games and we also like the pitching edge here.  Don't be fooled by Aaron Civale's full season ERA.  He has only made 3 starts and the first one was ugly back in March but since returning from injury he has been solid with 3 earned runs allowed in 9 innings over his 2 starts since coming back.  He worked 4 innings in the first and then 5 innings in the second start back and no reason to think he can't get back up to 6+ innings here.  Either way these bullpens do rate out equally and we have the hotter team and the starting pitching edge too.  We say that because the Reds are going with Brady Singer here.  He has decent numbers on the season but is coming off a rough May in which he compiled a 6.39 ERA.  Also, earlier this season Singer faced the Brewers and allowed 9 hits in just 5 innings while allowing 5 runs (3 earned) in that start.  Over the last 7 days the Brewers are one of the top slugging teams in the majors while Cincinnati ranks in the lower half over the same period.  The Brewers also rank 3rd in the NL in that category the last 15 days while the Reds rank 9th out of 15 teams.  So this one is definitely trending in favor of the red hot Brewers as they go for 8 in a row.  The Reds have lost 7 of 11 games including 3 of the last 4 and they scored just 5 runs in those 3 losses!  Brewers also have won each of the last 4 road games too and averaged scoring 8.5 runs in those 4 victories.  The Brewers have plenty of big edges here and offer great value with no juice to lay and we look for a big Brewers road win in this one.  

#904 ASA PLAY ON 2* New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-175/-180) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - Yes we are willing to lay 3.5 or 3.6 units to win 2 units when you consider just how horrible the Rockies season has been.  We will ride with New York again today in this one.  The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets Clay Holmes was always a bullpen guy but this season he has been fantastic after moving into a starters role and in his 11 starts he has a 2.98 ERA!  The Rockies Carson Palmquist is 0-3 this season with an 8.78 ERA and the 24-year old rookie is still adjusting to pitching at the big league level.  The Mets, off yesterday's 8-2 win, are now 23-7 at home this season!  The Rockies are 3-27 on the road this season and 5-35 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado entered this series off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs.  Now off B2B losses by multi-run margins in this series, we look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a big margin again similar to yesterday's 8-2 final. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#956 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-170) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets Koda Senga is having a fantastic season and his home ERA is a minuscule 0.70 on the year.  In his career he is 18-10 overall with a 2.61 ERA.  This season he has been fantastic in his 10 starts with a 1.46 ERA and does a great job of scattering hits and limiting damage.  The Rockies Antonio Senzatela is 1-9 this season with a 6.50 ERA and he is 8-28 the last 4 seasons combined.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hammered (.410 BAA!) on the road this season.  The Mets, off yesterday's 4-2 win, are now 22-7 at home this season!  The Rockies are 3-26 on the road this season and 5-37 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado entered this series off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a greater margin than yesterday's surprising 4-2 final. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#906 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets David Peterson is 8-4 in all home starts since the start of the 2023 season and his home ERA was 2.79 that year.  In 2024, he went 10-3 overall with a 2.90 ERA.  This season he has been solid in his 10 starts with a 2.79 ERA on the season.  The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 0-7 this season and 11-29 the last 3 seasons combined and his ERA has been north of 5.00 both in 2023 and 2024 as well as 2025 thus far.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hit quite hard (.271 BAA) on the road as well this season.  The Mets are off a loss but are 21-7 at home this season and are 3-1 this season when at home and coming off a loss.  The Rockies are 3-25 on the road this season and 5-33 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado is off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#915/916 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs (+100) – Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:07 PM ET - The Athletics are in a horrible slump and have lost 14 of 15 games.  The Athletics have scored an average of only 2.8 runs per game in those 14 losses.  So look for the Athletics to struggle to score here but also look for another quality start from Jeffrey Springs.  The southpaw has struggled at home in the Athletics temporary hitter-friendly park in Sacramento.  However, on the road he is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and opponents hitting just .179 against him!  So we don't expect much from the Blue Jays lineup here either.  Toronto is off a surprising 12-0 win yesterday.  Prior to that rare blowout win, the Blue Jays scored an average of just 1 run per game their last  6 games!  Also, Toronto starter Chris Bassitt is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his 5 home starts this season!  He should dominate this slumping Athletics lineup here.  Our computer math model projecting a total of only 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#914: ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers Money Line -125/-130 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 8:05 ET - We understand the line move here as it has been a downward drop on Texas here as Toronto looks to bounce back off the 2-0 shutout loss.  We get it especially because the Rangers have struggled to score runs recently.  However, the Rangers are absolutely the play here and this is excellent value considering some key edges.  First off, the Blue Jays have now lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers are 18-11 at home this season and Toronto is 10-16 in road games this season.  Texas starter Tyler Mahle has been incredible this season in Texas.  Mahle is 4-1 at home with a 0.95 ERA over his 7 starts here.  Truly phenomenal numbers for Mahle including a .165 batting average against.  We are going action on pitchers here, as per usual, and Blue Jays starter Paxton Schultz likely will be more of an opener with Eric Lauer expected to get plenty of the work today.  Schultz struggled in most recent outing (even though runs were unearned) and this will be the rookie's first ever MLB start.  Lauer also got rocked in his most recent appearance and that was on the road.  Those recent struggles the Rangers had that we mentioned earlier were mostly on the road.  At home the Rangers, with yesterday's win, have now won 7 of the last 10.  Per all of the above, Texas should prove well worth the modest price here as our computer math model shows high probability of a home win in this one.

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks won yesterday's game 5-0.  Things won't get any easier today for the struggling Pirates!   Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he is in phenomenal current form.  Burnes has allowed just 7 earned runs in total over his last 6 starts and in those 37 and 1/3 innings he gave up only 24 hits.  He has struck out 23  over 18 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 home starts!  As for the Pirates starter here it will be Mike Burrows making the first road start of his MLB career.  He draws a tough assignment as Chase Field is a hitter-friendly park and the Diamondbacks are known for hitting well here.  Burrows made one road appearance out of the bullpen last season and struggled in the Bronx against the Yankees.  Now he is coming off his first ever MLB start.  That was against the Brewers at home and he struggled with 2 homers allowed and the damage could have been worse.  He gave up a number of hard-hit line drive outs and also got a double play to help him.  The point is that he wasn't fooling too many hitters and the Diamondbacks are likely to pound Burrows here while Burnes continues his dominating run.  Burnes will be facing a Pirates team that has a .205 batting average on the road and Pittsburgh is scoring only 2.5 runs per game on the road this season!  Conversely, Burrows has to deal with a Diamondbacks team that has a .469 slugging percentage in home games this season!  That is 3rd in the majors as only the Yankees and Dodgers rank higher and that is pretty good company to keep!  With yesterday's loss Pittsburgh dropped to 1-6 this season against NL West teams and they are 6-20 in road games this season.  Also, against teams with a record of .500 or better currently this season, the Pirates are 7-24 on the year!  The Diamondbacks have won 3 of the last 4 at home and their last 11 home wins have come by a combined score of 57 to 15 with the last 4 of those dominating wins coming by a combined score of 17 to 0.  That is another reason we have no hesitation in laying the -1.5 runs with this bet.  Pittsburgh's tough season continues here.  Lay the run line in this one!

#923: ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line -155 @ Cleveland Guardians @ 6:10 ET - The Dodgers are a perfect 4-0 this season when off B2B losses in which they scored 6 or less runs in each loss.  That system is in place here after they lost B2B games to the Mets by scores of 5-2 and 3-1.  The Dodgers bounce back here with a solid pitching edge in this one.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for LA against Gavin Williams for Cleveland.  Note that Williams is off a quality start at Minnesota but he allowed 22 hits in 16 innings over his 4 starts prior to that one.  With the Dodgers off B2B low-scoring wins but being the top slugging team in the National League so far this season, look for Williams to get pounded here.  Los Angeles will be dialed in at the plate here and that should be enough for plenty of run support for Yamamoto.  The Dodgers right-hander has been very consistent this season and has a 1.86 ERA on the year and is holding opponents to a .172 batting average this season!  The Dodgers have a number of hitters with experience against Williams and those guys are a combined 7 for 13 against him.  The Guardians only have one hitter who has ever faced Yamamoto.  This is another big edge for LA here.  Yes this one a little pricier on the money line but we lay it with confidence here as the Dodgers improve to 5-0 YTD when in this situation. 

#908: ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers Money Line -130 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:05 ET - The Blue Jays have lost 3 straight and the Rangers are 17-10 at home this season and Toronto is 9-15 in road games this season.  Texas starter Jacob deGrom is 3-1 at home with a 1.47 ERA over his 6 starts here.  Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has been great at home this season but he is 1-3 with a 5.27 ERA in his 5 starts on the road this season.  The Rangers deGrom also has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts as he has been in fantastic form since mid-April.  The home/road differences are significant here and, overall, the Rangers have plenty of edges in this one (including deGrom over Gausman).  That being said, Texas should prove well worth the modest price here as our computer math model shows high probability of a home win in this one.

#958: ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals Money Line -120 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 2:15 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost 4 straight and the Cardinals are now 18-8 at home this season.  St Louis starter Sonny Gray is 4-1 at home with a 3.05 ERA over his 7 starts here.  Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has been great at home this season but he has a 6.15 ERA on the road this season.  Gray also was 9-5 with a 2.79 ERA at home last season.  As for the bullpen comparison here, the Diamondbacks have the 2nd highest ERA in the National League as only the Nationals (dead last in NL) are worse.  The home/road differences are significant here and, overall, the Cardinals have plenty of edges here and are well worth the short price as we look for a solid home win in this one. 

#929/930 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 10:07 PM ET - The Marlins had 14 hits last night but were held to 4 runs.  Miami should be swinging the bats well again tonight and with a little more clutch hitting they will get well past 4 runs.  Angels starter Jose Soriano has made 4 starts at home this season and one was good but he has consistently struggled in each of the other 3 with 13 earned runs allowed in 13 and 2/3 innings over the other 3 starts at home!  Cal Quantrill is also likely to struggle here.  The Marlins starter had a good first road outing this season but has lasted only 17 innings in the 4 road starts since then as he has been pounded to the tune of 18 earned runs in those.  Quantrill has a tough assignment tonight which will make things even more difficult for him in terms of his road struggles.  Quantrill is on his 3rd team in 3 seasons and has an ERA above the 5.00 mark from 2023 through the present.  Now he faces an Angels team that is the top slugging team in the majors the last 15 days as they have slugged 26 homers in their 13 games in the 15-day stretch.  Both the 26 homers and the .502 slugging percentage leading the majors last 15 days!  They are red hot and have won 8 straight games but their bullpen has a 6.57 ERA which is dead last in the majors and the Marlins aren't much better with a 5.09 ERA for their bullpen.  The consistent high-scoring trend in Angels games (8-game winning streak averaging 12 runs a game) likely continues here.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 here that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.  

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 4-3 through 5 innings and then shockingly stayed that way!  We say shockingly because this match-up features the bottom two bullpens in the entire AL based on ERA and also because the Athletics temporary home this season has proven to be hitter-friendly.  It will be another very warm day in Sacramento today and the ball will carry very well here in this one.  Athletics starter Gunnar Hoglund gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and the young right-hander has allowed 16 baserunners in less than 12 innings over his last two starts.  The Angels start veteran Kyle Hendricks here and he was 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA with the Cubs last season.  He went 3-5 with a 7.08 ERA on the road last season.  This season thus far Hendricks is 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his five road starts.  The Athletics did not hit well on their recent road trip but now in their 2nd game back home and facing a struggling righty, we look for the A's bats to get going again.  Their slugging percentage this season ranks 8th in the majors and they had scored 5 runs per game in the last dozen home games prior to yesterday's 4-3 loss.  The Angels stayed hot with that win yesterday and they have scored 5.2 runs per game in going a respectable 8-5 last 13 games.  Prior to this series, 7 of the last 9 Athletics home games have totaled double digits and they are a more confident hitting team in this venue.  The Angels are also very confident right now at the plate and we don't see any way these sub-par bullpens do again tonight what they did yesterday.  At the same time, both starters are likely to struggle here for the reasons we noted above.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 13 to 14 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 11 or 12 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

#924 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -133 over Athletics, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Excellent set up here. The markets are going to look at Justin Verlander's 0-3 record on the season and the fact the Giants are 3-10 against left-handed starters this season and facing southpaw Jeffrey Springs here.  However, there is so much more here than meets the eye at first glance.  First off, the Giants slugging percentage against left-handed starters actually ranks 5th in the National League.  Secondly, Verlander has a 2.76 ERA over his last 5 starts and has truly been in strong form since mid-April.  As for Springs, he has solid numbers in his 3 May starts but his strikeout numbers are not that impressive and he had a 7.66 ERA in his 5 April starts with nearly as many walks as strikeouts.  The Giants bullpen has a 2.59 ERA which ranks 1st in the majors.  The Athletics bullpen has a 5.76 ERA which ranks among the worst in the majors.  The Giants won yesterday's game 1-0 in 10 innings and usually hit much better at home as their .262 batting average at home ranks 7th in the majors.  The Athletics have been better than expected this season but are still only 12-19 this season when facing a team that currently has a .500 record or better on the season.  Also, the Athletics are hitting just .236 in day games this season which ranks in the bottom third of the majors.  The Giants are 15-7 at home this season while the Athletics are 8-15 in interleague match-ups this season.  San Francisco is also 13-7 in day games while the Athletics are currently slumping and have lost 8 of their last 10 including 4 straight!  The Giants have won 6 of the last 8 at home and get it done again here at a very fair price.  Home blowout likely here. Lay it!

GAME TWO OF DH: #913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles, GAME TWO OF DH, Tuesday at 3:45 PM ET - Simeon Woods Richardson projected to get the start for the Twins here and Baltimore is undecided but their options are not good.  It could be Cade Povich getting the call for the Orioles.  But, if not, it might be Chayce McDermott and the 26-year old has only made one start at the MLB level.  Baltimore is expected to use Dean Kremer in Game One of today's double header and he has a 5.24 ERA on the season so if he gets flipped to Game Two that is fine by us as well.  Make sure you go "action" on the pitchers for this reason.  As for the Twins, Woods Richardson is winless with a 5.30 ERA in his 4 road appearances this season and Povich is winless with a 7.94 ERA in his 4 home starts this season!  Woods Richardson has walked 10 in 14.2 innings over his last 3 road starts and he also struggled against the Orioles last week.  Povich struggled against these Twins in Minnesota last week and also opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him this season!  Last season, his rookie campaign, Povich went 3-9 with a 5.20 ERA!  The Orioles have a pitching concern here no matter which one takes the mound as you can see.  Baltimore has underperformed at the plate but they enter this game off a 7-3 win and having won 2 of the last 3 games.  Also, Baltimore is now back home where they scored 6 runs in their most recent game.  The Twins are hot and have won 8 straight games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this hot streak.  The Twins bullpen has been solid except they have blown 7 of 16 save opportunities.  The Orioles have been solid in save situations but their overall pen has struggled with a 5.05 ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors!  Also, with this being Game 2 of the Double Header, some of the better bullpen arms could get used up in the first game.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#904 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -110 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - The key here is the home team value and the stronger bullpen.  San Francisco's pen has the lowest ERA in MLB as they have a 2.62 ERA on the season while Arizona has one of the majors' worst with a 5.18 ERA on the year.  Jordan Hicks may not have great numbers for the Giants but the right-hander had a 4.07 ERA at home last season and he enters this outing in decent form with 3 or less earned runs allowed in his last 3 starts.  The Diamondbacks' Eduardo Rodriguez has a .326 opponents batting average in his road starts this season and he has a 7.32 ERA in his 4 road starts this season.  The Giants are 13-6 at home this season and though Arizona has been decent on the road this season, the 10-6 loss yesterday drops them to 2-3 L5 on the road and 5-7 L12 games overall.  Lay it with the home team at a very fair price with this one in the pick'em price range. We are going with the money line on the small home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating win for the Giants this afternoon!  

#920 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - The Rockies are off a rare win but fired their manager after all the losing had finally taken its toll when the losing streak was culminated with a 21-0 loss.  Even though the Rockies finally got back into the win column Sunday, this team is still a mess!  Changing the manager does not exactly revamp the roster and therein lies the problem with Colorado.  The Rockies, dating back to last season, are 1-8 the last 9 times when off a loss.  B2B wins have indeed been rare for the Rockies and that has, in fact, happened only once this season.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume here.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and yesterday's win was at home.  Now the Rockies are back on the road where they have lost 16 of 17 games!  The Rangers have certainly been struggling some too but now they enter this game off B2B road wins at Detroit and they are now happy to be back home where they have won 12 of 19 games since losing their home opener.  Texas also has the bullpen edge here.  As for the starting pitching, this is a big edge here for Texas!  The Rangers Tyler Mahle is off to a phenomenal start this season and has been incredibly dominant at home.  In his home outings, Mahle is 2-1 with an 0.70 ERA in his 5 starts!  He has been lights out at home this season!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie and he is struggling both home and away.  He is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his road starts this season.  82% of Rockies losses this season by 2 or more runs.  70% of Rangers wins this season by 2 or more runs. Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen in the series opener Friday.  That was a 13-9 San Diego win and the Rockies got to the Padres bullpen well in that game.  Yesterday the Rockies never got into the bullpen but it did not matter for over players as the Padres scored 21 runs in a 21-0 shutout victory!  The Rockies should bounce back at that plate today as they have some guys in their lineup that have had success against Pivetta and we expect a game more like what we saw in Denver Friday.  The Padres have been absolutely crushing the ball when facing Colorado this season.  San Diego is now 5-0 against the Rockies this season and they have scored an average of 10 runs in those 5 victories!  Look for that trend to continue today in this hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather expected again today in Denver!  The ball was carrying very well yesterday and more of the same is expected today with ideal weather conditions on a warm afternoon at Coors Field.  The Padres Pivetta has struggled in 2 of his 3 road starts this season and he did go 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the road last season.  The Rockies German Marquez has lasted only 19 innings his last 5 starts and he has allowed 30 earned runs in those 19 innings!  Marquez has been getting crushed and now has to face a red hot Padres lineup that feels like it is taking batting practice here at Coors Field.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 12 or 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen yesterday.  It was still a 13-9 San Diego win and that cashed our money line ticket on the Padres yesterday.  Today we are involved again in this series but this time it is on the total.  The Padres will send an inexperienced hurler to the mound making just the 2nd start of his career and his first ever start at Coors Field.  Stephen Kolek did have 42 appearances last season for the Padres but it was all out of the bullpen.  Opponents hit .303 against the right-hander last season and the 28 year-old struggled in the two appearances he made here at Coors Field.  Yes, Kolek enters this outing off a strong start at Pittsburgh.  However, he struggled in the minors this season before being called up and he faced a struggling Pirates lineup in that outing last week.  That's not to say the Rockies have not been struggling also but the Colorado bats are going to carry momentum from last night's rally against the Padres bullpen.  The Rockies will give Kolek problems in his first ever start in a very hitter-friendly park.  Of course that hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather today in Denver, is also going to help lead to plenty of scoring for the Padres.  San Diego has won all 4 games with the Rockies this season and has scored an average of 7 runs in the 4 victories.  Here the Padres will be facing 24-year old right-hander Bradley Blalock.  He has struggled in Colorado since coming over from Milwaukee last season.  Blalock allowed 14 earned runs in 13 innings in 3 late-season appearances to wrap last year and now, in his first two starts this season, he has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings.  It won't get any easier here against a tough Padres lineup coming off a 13-run outburst yesterday.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one. 

#957 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -160 over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 8:40 PM ET - When you look at some of the Rockies numbers so far this season it is hard to believe and that is why we are willing to lay this price here.  Colorado has been absolutely horrid this season with a 6-31 overall record on the year!  Also, against teams that currently have a record of .500 or above on the season, the Rockies have gone 3-22 on the season!   San Diego is 23-13 on the season and that includes winning 10 of 13 in games against teams that currently have a losing record on the season.  This is a divisional game and the Padres are 5-0 in divisional games this season while the Rockies are 1-9 in divisional games thus far on the season!  Also, the Rockies bullpen ERA ranks a respectable 14th in the majors out of 30 teams but San Diego's bullpen ERA is the best in the majors!  As for the starters here, Antonio Senzatela is getting hit at a .380 clip on the season and has a 7.63 ERA in his 3 home starts this season.  The Padres Randy Vasquez had one really rough start this season in which he allowed 6 earned runs in just 2 innings.  However, in his other 6 starts he allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in 30 innings of work!  All the edges go to the road team here and we'll lay the price!  We are going with the money line on the road favorite in this one and we expect a dominating road win Friday!

#973 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -125 over Cleveland Guardians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Philles have won 3 straight games and 9 of the last 11 and have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Guardians are on a more modest 8-6 run last 14 games plus the key here is the starting pitching edge in this one.  Cleveland's Gavin Williams has allowed 6 earned runs on 14 hits and 7 walks in just 6 innings in his last two starts.  The Phillies Aaron Nola has pitched much better than his 1-5 record shows on the season and has been particularly strong of late.  Nola is rounding into form and has allowed only 1 earned run on 7 hits and just 2 walks while striking out 14 in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. Lay it with the hotter team and the stronger starting pitcher here at a very fair price in this one.  We are going with the money line on the road favorite in this one and we expect a dominating road win Friday!

#903 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -150 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - A lot of edges for the Dodgers here and that is why we are willing to lay this price.  The Dodgers Yamamoto is off to a phenomenal start this season after going a solid 7-2 with 3.00 ERA last season as well.  This season he has been dominant and this includes even when facing tougher lineups and also even when on the road.  In fact, he has a 0.38 ERA in his four road starts this season.  The Diamondbacks hitters (other than Marte 2-4) that have experience against him have gone a combined 1 for 20 against him!  The Dodgers, on the other hand, have a number of hitters that have enjoyed great success against Diamondbacks starter Pfaadt.  In fact, LA has 7 hitters that have had at least 6 at bats against him and hit at least .333 against him!  5 of those guys are hitting .364 or better against Pfaadt.  The Diamondbacks bullpen (4.66 ERA) has been struggling this season and the Dodgers (15-6 record) rate the bullpen edge as well in this match-up.  Also, Arizona has been slumping overall and this includes losing 6 of the last 8 home games!  The Dodgers have not only won 9 of 11, most of those wins have seen them score at least 7 runs.  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating home win Wednesday! 

#953 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants +130 over Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 2:20 PM ET - The Giants are offering excellent underdog line value here.  Robbie Ray gets the start for San Francisco and he has been tough to hit all season long.  What was holding him back earlier this season was command issues as he was walking too many.  Yet he still has managed a 4-0 record (and 3.05 ERA) thus far on the season and the key for us is he now seems to have the command issues in check.  In his last two starts, Ray has gone 7 innings in each and he allowed only 2 earned runs on just 7 hits in 14 innings in those 2 starts while striking out 16 and walking only 3 batters!  He is opposed by Ben Brown and the Cubs hurler is winless with an 8.79 ERA in his 4 home appearances (3 starts).  The Cubs have lost 3 of 4 including last night's 14-5 loss where they rallied to tie the game in the 9th but then gave up 9 runs in the top of the 11th!  Another disheartening home loss for Chicago while San Francisco has won 4 of 5 overall plus has a big bullpen edge here.  The Giants bullpen is 12-4 with a 2.53 ERA this season while the Cubs pen is 6-8 with a 4.71 ERA this season.  We are going with the money line on the road underdog in this one and we expect a solid upset win Wednesday afternoon!

#952 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -175 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 1:15 PM ET - A lot of edges for the Cardinals here and that is why we are willing to lay this price but we also keep our rating low to keep the total risk factor reasonable.  St Louis is 14-6 at home this season and have one of the strongest home/road dichotomies in the league as the home team is 27-10 in Cardinals games this season.  St Louis has Sonny Gray going and he will bounce back against a struggling Pirates lineup here after a rare tougher home outing last week.  He has been pitching well overall this season, including already coming up with a solid outing versus Pittsburgh.  Also, he went 9-5 with a 2.79 ERA in home starts for the Cardinals last season.  The Pirates have lost 6 straight games overall and Mitch Keller, 1-3 this season, takes the mound for Pittsburgh here.  Keller had a strong start versus St Louis earlier this season but looking at his 4 starts since then his strikeout numbers are down plus, other than the start versus the Cards, he allowed 18 earned runs in 25 and 2/3 innings in his other 5 starts since the beginning of April.  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one and we expect a dominating home win Wednesday! 

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The winds will be light but are expected to be out of the north and it is a rather cool evening expected at Wrigley Field for this one. Justin Verlander doesn't have great season numbers but he is flying under the radar right now because he has been pitching much better of late. Verlander has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs on just 11 hits in 18 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He has gone a solid 6 innings in all 3 outings.  The Cubs Colin Rea is having a solid season including going 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his 4 starts since moving into the rotation.  Yesterday's game finished 9-2 but we don't expect such success for the Cubs at the plate as Verlander has round into strong form now.  As for the Giants, they have now averaged only 2.3 runs scored in the last 7 road games as their hitting woes continue away from  home.  The Cubs had scored an average of only 3 runs in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday's big day at the plate.  That low-scoring trending at home is likely to resume here per all of the above.  This should be a tight low-scoring battle. Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

#901 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-165) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET -  We are going with the Dodgers again today on Tuesday after they won 7 to 4 yesterday for us here in this spot.  As we mentioned here yesterday, the Dodgers entered this series off a loss but this was on the heels of a 7-game winning streak in which LA averaged scoring 9 runs per game!  This team has such a potent lineup.  Miami, on the other hand, has now lost 8 of 9 games and scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in those 8 losses.  The Dodgers Tony Gonsolin just faced the Marlins and it was his first start of this season and he struck out 9 in 6 innings in a very solid 6-inning effort.  We expect another one today while Miami counters with the struggling Cal Quantrill as he has been charged with 18 earned runs on 26 hits over 17 and 2/3 innings in his last 4 starts. The way this LA lineup is going - including pounding Quantrill when these teams matched up last week - this one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#910 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-156) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on San Francisco on Friday, the Rockies (stop the presses!) were off B2B wins and it was the first time Colorado had won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  As we stated Friday (winner on SF), the odds certainly favored that Colorado's losing ways would quickly resume.  Sure enough, San Francisco beat them 4-0 Friday and 6-3 Saturday.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to Thursday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants entered Friday's game on a 3-game losing streak which was their longest losing streak since mid-September.  San Francisco had been on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favored that they would get back to winning ways and they have done just that with the wins both Friday and Saturday.  Now Sunday looks like another great spot for the Giants to roll!  German Marquez starts for the Rockies and opponents are crushing him to the tune of a .369 batting average this season!  He is 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA this season!  The Giants counter with Logan Webb here and he is 3-2 this season and has a 2.83 ERA plus he has not allowed any earned runs in his 13 innings over 2 home starts this season.  Last season Webb went 7-5 at home with a 2.83 ERA and the year before he had a 2.26 ERA at home.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here even though it is still a bit on the pricier side.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Some rain in the Pittsburgh area which is part of the reason we waited on releasing this selection for Saturday but it does look like the heavier showers will be out of the area before game time for this one and we should be good to go with just some light rain expected throughout this one.  This match-up involves two starting pitchers very likely to struggle here.  Randy Vasquez has had issues all season with command and has 19 walks in 27 and 1/3 innings!  Also, he was able to escape some jams and avoid big damage earlier this season but it looks like his luck is running out!  Vasquez has allowed 9 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings over his last 2 starts!  Also, he has allowed 17 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He also has only 7 strikeouts in 21 innings this month!  As for Pirates starter Bailey Falter, he went 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in April.  Falter is supported by a mediocre Pirates bullpen.  The San Diego bullpen has been strong this season but they will be called upon too early in this one as the struggles of Vasquez continue.  The Pirates were shutout once in the last 11 games but have averaged scoring 4 runs in the other 10 games.  The trouble for Pittsburgh is they have allowed 7.7 runs per game in the last 6 games!  San Diego is going to take advantage of facing Falter and a faltering bullpen!  The Padres won yesterday's game 9-4 and now have won 3 straight games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in this 3-game winning streak!  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#914 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Rockies (stop the presses!) are off B2B wins!  This is the first time Colorado has won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to yesterday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants are on a 3-game losing streak which, ironically, is also their first such streak since mid-September last season.  Since then, San Francisco was on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favor that they get back to winning ways here at home Friday.  Senzatela starts for the Rockies and opponents are hitting an unheard of .385 against him this season!  He has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts.  The Giants counter with Robbie Ray here and he is 3-0 this season and has a 3.73 ERA.  Also, he is holding opponents to a .223 batting average this season and, in his 7 starts last season with Giants, he held opponents to a .189 batting average.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

#923 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers as the last time Cannon "started" and went 7 and 2/3 innings but it was after an "opener" pitched the first inning.  Great set up here. Astros are off a loss and have gone 9-1 the last 10 times they have entered a game off a loss.  The White Sox are off a rare win.  Chicago is only 8-23 this season and a big reason for that is they can not sustain any winning form.  The White Sox are 1-6 this season when entering a game off a win.  Framber Valdez starts for Houston and has inflated numbers the last 4 starts simply because of one bad outing.  In the other 3 starts Valdez has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 20 innings for a 1.80 ERA.  He is capable of dominating the light-hitting White Sox.  Chicago starts Jonathan Cannon here and he has had one scoreless outing the last 5 outings but he allowed 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings in the other 4 recent outings.  White Sox are 5-17 this season against teams that currently have a winning record while the Astros are 8-4 this season against teams that currently have a losing record.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are expected to have Dustin May on the mound here while the Marlins are going with Edward Cabrera.  Note that LA's May has been practically unhittable at home with a 0.82 ERA and a .108 batting average against with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings over his two home starts.  The Marlins Cabrera is off to a rough start this season as big hits and some command issues with his pitches have done him in.  Also, all those outings were at home and now he is on the road where he went 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA last season and also 0-7 with a 5.96 ERA the season before that as he has not traveled well!  The Marlins are on a 4-8 slide overall and also have lost 6 of last 9 road games.  Before yesterday's 1-run loss, Miami's last 6 road losses included 5 by a multi-run margin.  In fact those 5 losses were by an average margin of 7 runs!  As for the Dodgers, they have won 5 of last 6 road games and are a solid 12-3 at home on the season!  Los Angeles has the better bullpen numbers and also ranks 4th in the majors for slugging percentage while Miami ranks in the middle of the pack.  The Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of last 5 games while Marlins averaged 3.5 runs per game last 4 games before the 7-6 loss yesterday.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one looks like a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#979/980 ASA PLAY ON OVER 8.5 (+100) in San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday @ 4:10 ET - There has not been much scoring in the first two games of this series but the total today is set at 8.5 runs with good reason.  Zach Littell has lost 6 straight starts dating back to last season.  The Rays hurler is 0-5 this season with a 5.28 ERA and he has given up 7 homers in just 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Giving up an average of 1 long ball nearly every 2 innings is certainly not a good sign!  As for the San Diego starter, Randy Vasquez is quite the story early this season in terms of statistical anomaly.  He has a respectable 3.97 ERA in his 5 starts this season but it is a miracle his ERA is that low.  He has 17 walks against only 9 strikeouts in his 22 and 2/3 innings on the season.  Last season opponents hit .304 against him and Vasquez is showing signs now of unraveling this season too as well.  After giving up 7 hits in 5 innings but avoiding major damage 2 starts ago, the last start finally saw Vasquez get hammered.  He allowed 6 earned runs in a start lasting just 2 innings at Detroit.  With 4 straight wins and scoring 19 runs in those games, the Rays' confidence is up.  Even though the Padres have suddenly struggled, they entered this series with a 12-1 record at home on the season and averaged 5 runs per game at home.  San Diego's lineup takes advantage of facing Littell here and gets rolling again early in this one.  Both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here and even though two good bullpens are involved in this one, the Padres bullpen in particular has already seen a lot of work in the first two games of this series and that catches up with them here. Over gets the call in this one!  

#905 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -110 over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Phillies have struggled on the road this season and also overall right now as they have lost 5 straight games!  However, Philadelphia is off a tough series against the Mets and then having lost the series opener to the Cubs in shutout fashion yesterday.  Now, on Saturday, the perfect bounce back spot.  Philadelphia has Jesus Luzardo on the mound.  The lefty has been fantastic this season with a 2.08 ERA in his five starts and a 2-0 record and 36 strikeouts in his 30 innings on the hill.  He will be opposed by the Cubs Ben Brown in this one.  Brown is an inexperienced hurler still adjusting to the MLB level.  Last season he went 0-3 with a 5.01 ERA in his 6 day game appearances and this season he is already winless with a 6.75 ERA in his two day games starts this season.  This is the ideal spot for the Phillies to get back on track and we are taking advantage of the corresponding line value with this line around a pick'em.

#925 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers +122 over San Francisco Giants, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Rangers are offering strong underdog value here.  We get them at plus money here because the Giants are at home and having a strong season and we take advantage of the pitching edge here.  Both pitchers, Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle have a 3-0 record on the season.  However,  Ray has walked 17 batters in 19 innings this month plus he is coming off B2B outings in which he has struggled with 6 earned runs on 8 walks and 11 hits (19 baserunners) in just 9 innings!  Compare this to Mahle and there is no comparison!  Mahle is 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA this month and has held opponents to an .098 batting average in these 4 starts!  Just 8 hits allowed in 25 innings and a reasonable 8 walks over that stretch, Mahle has been in incredible form.  Also, with the 2-0 loss to the Rangers yesterday, the Giants have dropped to just 9-9 last 18 games.  The Rangers have won 6 of 10 games overall.  Also, in all games started by Mahle, the Rangers were 4-0 this season until they lost his most recent start 1-0 to the Dodgers.  Unlike that Mahle start, the Rangers should have no trouble giving decent run support for him here as Ray's struggles continue on the mound.  Take the road underdog in this one.

#904 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The White Sox have now lost 9 of 10 games and 8 of those 9 losses were via a multi-run margin of defeat.  It will be tough for the White Sox to keep up here as they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game in their last 9 losses.  Chris Paddack had a tough start to this season but has been much stronger in his last two starts with only one earned run allowed in each start.  Paddack allowed only 5 hits while striking out 11 over 10 innings in those two starts.  Last season at home Paddack was 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 9 starts.  Chicago counters with Shane Smith here.  Smith is a rookie who was off to a good beginning to this season over his first 3 starts but the White Sox right-hander hit 3 batters in most recent start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings.  Issues with command for Smith and it could all unravel for him here on the road and facing a Twins team that has won 4 straight home games.  Also, 8 of 9 Twins victories this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for the White Sox as the Twins hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one early Thursday.

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON OVER 9.5 (+100) in Athletics vs Rangers, Wednesday @ 10:05 ET - The Athletics temporary home this season in Sacramento continues to play out as a hitters paradise.  Texas won yesterday's game 8-5 and we have seen quite a few high-scoring games here already this season.  Athletics starter JP Sears has already seen how unforgiving this park can be as he struggled in his lone home start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in just 4 innings and the damage could have been even worse.  He will be opposed by Kumar Rocker for the Rangers here.   The Texas hurler is 0-3 in his 4 MLB road starts and the young hurler has particularly struggled in his first two road starts this season with 9 earned runs allowed in 6 innings of work!  Texas has had one low-scoring game on the road last 6 games but their other 5 recent road games have averaged 11 runs apiece and we expect a similar result here.  Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been great this season either.  Over gets the call here!