ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 at Brooklyn Nets, 6pm ET - The Bucks are coming off their most complete game of the season, a win over the Celtics, and we like that momentum to carry over here. Brooklyn has been playing better of late but they are still one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets are 3-2 SU their last five but the wins have come against the Pelicans, Bulls and Hornets who have a combined 21-54 record. Milwaukee beat the Nets at home in late November 116-99 and were minus -11.5 points in that game. That means they should be at least -3.5-points here. The Bucks 4th best team FG% should feast on a Nets D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowed. Lay it with the Bucks.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -11 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 9pm ET - This is the NBA Cup’s semi finals and decides who will represent the West in the Cup Finals. If you haven’t been paying attention the Thunder are on a whole different planet right now compared to the rest of the NBA. OKC is 24-1 SU on the season and the one game they lost they were up 22 before a late game collapse. There are many futures bets available on this team setting all kinds of records including most wins ever in a season. The Thunder have won 16 straight games by an average of 21ppg. For the season the Thunder are winning games by an average of +17.5ppg, they have an average road differential of +15.7ppg. When it comes to efficiency ratings the Thunder are 4th offensively and 1st defensively. The Spurs are having a nice season and have great young players, but this team is not quite ready to challenge the Thunder who are on a mission after losing in the Cup finals a year ago to Milwaukee. San Antonio will get Wemby back for today’s game, but they will disrupt their flow and the chemistry they’ve built in their current 9-3 SU run without him. In OKC’s current winning streak, only one has not come by double-digits. Lay it with the Thunder.

ASA NBA play on OVER 240.5 Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - We will get plenty of possessions in this game for what should be a higher scoring affair. The Jazz play at the 5th fastest rate in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 10th. Memphis should see an increase in their pace of play with the return of PG Ja Morant who will look to push tempo. The Grizzlies are average in terms of FG% defense allowing 47% on the season, 21st in 3PT% defense at 36.9%. The Jazz are worse defensively allowing 49% shooting by opponents overall and 37.5% from Deep (24th). Last season in all 4 games one of these two teams scored 122 or more points and in two of the four meetings we had 243 and 250 total points. The added rest is going to lead to a higher scoring game here as the Jazz are 4-0 OVER their last four when playing with 4+ days rest, the Grizzlies are 3-1 in that same situation. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +9 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:10pm ET - Boston is playing extremely well right now and the Bucks are not, but this line is higher than it should be and the value lies with Milwaukee. In Boston’s last two road games they were -4.5 a Toronto and -11 at Washington. Milwaukee was just a 1-point home favorite over the Sixers and +4.5 versus Detroit. Our ratings have the Celtics -6.5 on this court. The Bucks need this break and should be better coming out of it with more practice time with Porter Jr in the lineup. Porter Jr is averaging just under 22ppg and 6 assists since his return from injury and has become the Bucks go-to with Giannis out. The time came at a bad time for Boston who has won 5 straight and 10 of their last 12 games. We like the Bucks #1 rated 3PT% shooting going up against a Celtics 3PT% defense that ranks 21st in the league allowing nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Everyone knows the C’s live and die from the 3-point line but the Bucks 3PT% defense is 13th best in the NBA and can contest Boston’s shooters on the perimeter. Milwaukee is 3-1 ATS their last 4 when playing on 4 days rest. Boston 6-13 ATS their last 19 when playing with 2-3 days rest.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET - These same two teams met on this court in late November and produced 242 total points. The Thunder shot 48% for the game, the Suns hit 46% both right around each teams season average. The game was played at a slightly faster rate than an average NBA game with 179 total field goal attempts. OKC is 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.216-points per possession, the Suns are 11th at 1.168PPP. The Thunder in particular have been insanely good on the offensive end of the court with a 1.254PPP average in their last 5 games. Phoenix isn’t a great overall shooting team but they are very good from deep. The Suns are shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. If the Thunder have a weakness defensively it’s their 3PT% D as they rank 21st in the NBA allowing 36.9%. OKC is shooting 49.7% and should convert plenty of open looks against a Suns defense that is 20th in opponents FG% allowed. The last 3 meetings between these two teams has been high scoring with all 3 OVERS cashing. Expect the same in this one.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 840pm ET - This is a value bet as these two teams recently met in New York and the line on that game was Knicks -8.5. That would mean this game should have them as a 1-point favorite or a pick’em. The Raptors have lost 3 straight making them desperate and dangerous while the Knicks have won 3 in a row and may be a little ‘fat’. The Raptors just lost to the Celtics who are playing extremely well right now. In NY’s last 3 wins, two came against Utah and Charlotte and the one quality win was against the Magic who were in a bad scheduling situation and off an emotional win over the Heat. New York has the advantage offensively, the Raptors have it defensively. The Knicks are 3-6 SU on the road this season and 17-19 ATS their last 36 as a road favorite with an average plus/minus of +3.8ppg. The Raptors are 8-5 SU at home this season 18-14-1 ATS their last 33 as a home pooch. Grab the points with Toronto at home.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:40pm ET - With a busy NFL Sunday this write up will be shorter than usual. It looks like the line on this game is suggesting Luka Doncic will be back in the lineup for the Lakers after missing several games. We are fine with that and still feel the value lies with Philly. The Lakers are 16-6 SU on the season but look closer at their 10 most recent games where they are 8-2 SU. Only 1 of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record and that was a 3-point win in Toronto. The two losses in that stretch of games came against the Suns and Celtics who both grade out similarly to the 76ers. Philadelphia is getting healthier with the return of Paul George who scored 20 points last time out against the Bucks. Maxey is quietly one of the best scorers in the NBA and they are getting great play out of Edgecombe. The Lakers have a slight advantage in terms of efficiency differential at +3.2 compared to the 76ers at +0.3, but again the Lakers have faced the much easier schedule. Philly has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. We like them to win this home game outright.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -8 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - It’s not the best scheduling situation for the Heat who are coming off a game last night while the Kings are rested, but Miami has lost two games in a row which should have them focused here. This bet is just as much a play against the Kings as it is a play on the Heat. Sacramento has not played well this season and are likely on the verge of blowing this roster up and starting over. The Kings have lost 4 straight, 2 of which came against Memphis and Utah, two below average teams. Sacto is the 3rd worst offensive efficiency team in the league and 5th worst defensively. They have an efficiency differential of minus -11.2. The Heat were in Orlando last night and lost a close game to the Magic. They didn’t have Tyler Herro for that game, but he’s expected back here. Miami ranks 13th in oEFF averaging 1.163-points per possession. The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league (3rd) with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.119 points per possession allowed. When playing on the road this season the Kings have a negative point differential of minus -11.6ppg. Miami has an average plus/minus at home of +6.9ppg. Miami is 6-2 ATS when coming off a loss and should get a double digit win here.

ASA NBA play OVER 228 LA Lakers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is below an average NBA game but our model is projecting a total around the league average of 234. Toronto has some solid defensive numbers with the 5th best dEFF rating allowing 1.124-points per possession. The Lakers though don’t defend ranking 18th in dEFF and they’ve been worse yet with the return of LeBron, allowing 1.193PPP (24th). Offensively the Lakers have the 7th highest points per possession at 1.196PPP, the Raptors rank 13th at 1.170PPP. In terms of pace we should see a regular volume of attempts and tempo in this game with the Raptors 14th in pace, the Lakers are 19th. Toronto was having some scoring issues but seemed to find their stroke in their most recent game against the Blazers, putting up 121 points on 53% shooting. There is no reason to expect a dip in their shooting tonight against a Lakers defense that allows 48.3% on the season (24th). The Raptors by the way are 4th in the NBA in team FG% at 49.2%. On that note, do you know who the best shooting team in the NBA is? You guessed it, the Lakers at 51.3%. The last time these teams met on this court they produced 256 total points. It won’t be that high Thursday, but it will get over 230.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7pm ET - We successfully backed the Spurs on Tuesday night but will fade them here. San Antonio played a 4-game road trip from Nov 23 - 30th, then were home last night against Memphis, and now travels to Orlando. The Magic have been at home and are coming off a win over the Bulls on Monday night 125-120. Orlando has won 6 straight home games with some impressive victories over the Knicks, Clippers and Warriors. Orlando is 8-3 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.5ppg. The Spurs are a respectable 5-4 SU on the road this season but again this schedule is going to have a negative impact on this team that is lacking depth at the moment with several starters out with injuries. The Spurs are 8-10 ATS their last 18 when playing without rest with an average loss margin of minus -5.2ppg. The Magic have won 4 straight in the series with three of those wins coming by double-digits. Lay it with Orlando.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 pm ET - We like the Spurs by double-digits in this one. Memphis is not in the best of schedule situation here playing their 4 straight road game and 5th of six away from home. In comparison they were just +6.5 at the Clippers who are not playing well and lost that game by 5-points. The Spurs will be happy to be home after a 4-game road trip with the most recent game being a loss in Minnesota. Prior to that game the Spurs had two solid road wins in Portland and in Denver. San Antonio does not have Wemby back yet, but did get Kornet and Harper back recently which strengthens their rotation. Memphis will have a tough time scoring here with the 28th ranked FG% at 44.3% going up against a Spurs D that allows the 9th lowest FG% against at 45.9%. San Antonio meanwhile is the 4th best shooting team at 49% versus a Grizz D that allows 47.6% (22nd). These two teams met on Nov 18th with the Spurs winning by 10-points as a 6-point chalk. We expect a similar result Tuesday night.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - This line opened considerably higher than where it currently stands but according to our model there is still value in the UNDER. In fact our baseline model is projecting 224.5 total points, the advanced model has 229.5. The Bucks offense has stalled in recent weeks with scoring outputs of 110 or less in 6 of ten games. They have scored 116 or less in 9 of ten. Milwaukee plays at the 20th slowest pace in the NBA for the season but have been significantly slower in their last 5-games at 96.3 possessions per game (25th). The Wiz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA averaging just 1.089 points per possession (27th out of 30 teams). They do play at the 4th highest rate in the league, but much like the Bucks have been playing slower in their last 5 games. Milwaukee is averaging 115.5ppg on the season with the 19th rated offensive efficiency in the NBA at 1.151PPP. The Wizards have scored 115 or less in 7 of their last ten games. An average NBA game this season is averaging 233.4ppg but the way these offenses are playing this game doesn’t get close to being average. Bet UNDER!

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET - The 76ers are beat up right now and aren’t a deep team to begin with. Atlanta is quietly 12-8 on the season with an 8-4 SU road record. The Hawks are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 48.9% with the 7th best 3PT%. The Sixers are 18th in team FG% at 46.4% and 11th in 3PT%. Defensively the Hawks are 13th in efficiency ratings, the 76ers are 19th. Embiid is out today for Philadelphia along with his backup Drummond. Edgecombe is doubtful, Oubre Jr out and Paul George is still not 100%. Atlanta has been playing without Trae Young for most of the season but Jalen Johnson is playing lights out in his absence. Porzigis missed the Hawks last game but could be back here. Atlanta has won 5 straight in this series and should be the favorite in this game.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 8:10pm ET - We absolutely love the Heat in this situation with a massive scheduling advantage over the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a huge game last night against Orlando and now travel to Miami for their 3rd game in four days. The Pistons played 4 straight road games, then went home for Orlando and are now back on the road to face the Heat who have been off for 2 days. Detroit had ripped off 13 straight wins but have now lost 2 straight. Detroit has the 7th best efficiency differential on the season in the NBA at 6.4. In the Pistons last 5 games their eDIFF has improved to +7.6. The Heat are quietly flying under the radar right now and are a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 5 straight games by an average +13.4ppg. In that 5-game stretch the Heat have an eDIFF of +12.6 and are +5.4 on the season. Detroit has some good road numbers but the Heat at home are 9-1 SU with an average /- of plus +6.9ppg. Miami will force tempo here and play fast and the weary Pistons will have a tough time keeping up. Lay it with Miami.

ASAwins NBA play on NY Knicks -8 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks have lost 6-straight games and it’s not going to matter if Giannis is back or not for this one. Giannis is questionable tonight against the Knicks and I’m guessing he returns but it won’t be enough to cover against this Knicks team. These two teams met earlier this season in Milwaukee with the Bucks being a +2-point home dog. Milwaukee won that game by 10-points and this time around it will be the home team Knicks by double-digits. The Bucks lost most recently to the Heat by 3-points but prior to that their 5 losses were all by 10+ points. The Knicks are coming off a successful 3-2 road trip and have won 7 of their last ten overall. New York is 8-1 SU at home this season with the 3rd best average point differential of +12.3ppg. On that note, the Bucks are 3-5 SU away with an average differential of minus -6.2ppg. This is a massive game for the Cup standings as the winner has a chance to move on. These teams aren’t as close as this number indicates as the Knicks have the 5th best efficiency differential in the NBA at +6.6 compared to the Bucks at -2.8. Revenge, health, venue, Cup…it all adds up to a big home win for New York.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8pm ET - The Pelicans are one of the 4 worst teams in the NBA with an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of minus -12.9 on the season. Memphis has an eDIFF of 4.3 on the year. A closer look at each team's last five games and we see the Pels aren’t getting any better with an eDIFF of -12.5 compared to the Grizz in their last 5 games at -1.7. Memphis has won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss coming to the Nuggets. New Orleans is coming off a win over the Bulls, their first win in 10 games. These teams are similar offensively but the Grizzlies hold a decisive advantage on the defensive end of the court with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.150-points per possession allowed versus the Pels who are 29th in the league at 1.226PPP. Memphis has won 5 straight in the series dating back to the start of last season and we like them to extend the streak here.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -5.5 vs. LA Clippers, 11 pm ET - We are going to fade the Clippers here after a grueling 6-game road trip that started in Dallas on Nov 14th and ended in Cleveland on the 23rd. The Lakers also have LeBron back in the lineup after missing the first few weeks of the season. The Lakers are the better team right now with an efficiency differential of +2.6 compared to the Clippers at -5.5. The Lakers are 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.172-points per possession, the Clippers rank 21st at 1.144PPP. The gap defensively is even greater with the Lakers 15th in dEFF versus the Clippers who rank 24th. The Lakers have shot the ball extremely well this season at 50.6% (2nd) while the Clippers are average at 47%. The Clippers are 2-7 SU on the road this season, the Lakers 4-2 SU at home. The Lakers won 3 of four last season against this Clippers team and this year’s version of the Lakers is better and the Clippers are worse.

ASA play on Utah @ Golden State Under 239½ - Model sees just 229.4 points, thanks to Utah's middling 114.9 oEFF against GSW's stingy 113.8 dEFF, at a deliberate 100.9 combined pace (below league avg of 100.5). Last season in 3 meetings the UNDER cashed twice. Utah's road woes (last 10 away unders 7-3) seal the low-scoring trap. Jazz also 6-10 UNDER their last 16 when playing without rest.

ASA play on Houston @ Phoenix Over 226½ - Our model projects 235.2 total, fueled by Houston's blistering 124.6 oEFF (elite offense) clashing with Phoenix's 118.7 oEFF in a combined pace of ~98.4 possessions. Both teams rank top-10 in scoring efficiency this season , with Houston averaging 122.9 PPG and Suns 119.0 . Houston on 5-2 OVER streak in their last seven games. This game has extra excitement with the return of Kevin Durant to Phoenix. Bet OVER.

ASA play on Chicago @ New Orleans Under 242½ - Our NBA model is projecting a total of 235.1, dragged down by NOP's anemic 109.7 offensive efficiency (oEFF - bottom-5 league-wide) facing Chicago's 118 dEFF. The Bulls are one of the faster paced teams in the NBA but the Pelicans are one of the slowest. Chicago has not been great offensively either this season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. H2H last season produced totals of 232 and 234 —Pelicans' injury-riddled roster will have a tough time putting up points in this one and the Bulls have a few key injuries as well. Bet UNDER.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -9.5 at Utah Jazz, 8pm ET - I hate to be a ‘square’ today but even they win at times so give us a ticket on the Lakers -9.5 at Utah. We are betting a premium price here but the rest trends outweigh the number. The Lakers fall into a 61-24 ATS trend as they have been off since November 18th against this same Jazz team. The Lakers won the most recent meeting by 14-points and have won 5 of the last six against the Jazz. We know L.A. should get plenty of good looks in this game and will knock down shots with their #1 rated team FG% at 51.1%. The reason we know this is because the Jazz are 26th in FG% defense allowing 48.9%. Utah will have a tough time scoring with an offense that ranks 21st in oEFF scoring 1.149-points per possession, going up against a Lakers D that is 9th in dEFF. The Lakers should also have an easier time covering double-digits against a Jazz team that has allowed 140 or more points in 3 straight and 132 or more in four in a row. With 3+ days rest we like the Lakers big in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 pm ET - We love the added value in this number now as this line opened at 228 and has since moved down to the current 223. NBA games average 234 total points per game in raw numbers. Efficiency numbers have NBA games averaging 232.4ppg. Obviously this O/U is significantly lower than what an ‘average’ NBA game should be. The Pistons are 14th in pace of play this season, the Bucks are 18th. The Bucks offensive efficiency is trending down currently without Giannis in the lineup, but the Pistons are trending up. In Detroit's last 5 games they have the 8th best oEFF in the league, scoring 120+ in 4 of five. Not to mention, the Pistons should score here against this Bucks D that has slipped to 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.172-points per possession. These two Central Division rivals combined for more than 223 points in all four meetings a year ago, all overs. Granted, two of those meetings went to OT, but they were Over this number at the end of regulation in one of them and had 222 in the other at the end of the 4th Q. These two teams both rank top 10 in FG% shooting so it won’t take many possessions to get OVER this number.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -8.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hawks have lost two straight and will look to bounce back in New Orleans against one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the 2nd worst overall efficiency differential at minus -13.3, only ahead of the Wizards. New Orleans has the 5th worst offensive efficiency at 1.101PPP and the 29th defensive efficiency allowing 1.243PPP. In comparison the Hawks are 14th in dEFF, 13th in oEFF. Atlanta lost at San Antonio on Thursday but had won 4 straight on the road in their most recent road trip. Two of those road wins were against similar teams to the Pels (Kings, Jazz) and both of those wins games by double-digits. Going into Friday night the Pelicans had lost 7 straight games 5 of which were at home, and all 5 came by more than this spread. New Orleans is 1-7 SU at home with a negative average point differential of minus -12ppg. Atlanta 7-3 SU on the road this season and also benefit from a scheduling advantage as the Pels played Friday night.

ASAwins play on Phoenix Suns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9pm ET - I’m not so sure the T’Wolves should be favored on this court against the Suns.When you compare efficiency differentials the Suns are +5.3, the Wolves are +6.5 but Phoenix has faced a tougher schedule. On that note, both teams are 8-2 SU in their last ten games. In the Wolves 8 wins in that 10-game stretch - not one is against a team with a winning record. Phoenix hasn’t faced a tough schedule either but they do have a win over the Spurs in their last 10 and are coming off a win in Portland most recently. The Suns have an edge with their 7th best 3PT% going up against a T’Wolves defense that is 14th in defending the 3PT line. We also like the Suns advantage on the offense glass with the 9th best rebound % compared to the Timberwolves 15th ranked REB%. Phoenix is 6-2 on their home court with the 5th best scoring differential of +13.3ppg. Minnesota is 3-3 ATS as a road chalk this season. Take the home dog here.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 233.5 Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Kings will push tempo with the 3rd fastest pace of play in the NBA. Sacramento has capable scorers and shoots well enough at 46.7% overall, and 37.2% from deep (11th). Memphis has also been one of the league's better defenses in past seasons but they’ve slipped to 18th in defensive efficiency this season. The last two meetings between these two teams produced 254 and 271 total points. It’s not too much to ask to get a 240’s final here.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Grizz battled the Spurs late into the game on Tuesday night before falling by double-digits. Scheduling also favors Memphis here with the Kings coming off a game last night in Oklahoma City. Sacto is 4-14 ATS their last 18 when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Kings are 1-7 SU on the road this season with a negative average point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Don’t be fooled by the Grizzlies 3-5 SU home record as the losses have come to: OKC, Houston, Detroit, Lakers and Heat who have a combined 58-16 SU record. The home team won all three meetings a year ago and we expect that trend to continue here. Lay it!

ASAwins NBA play on: Over 228.5 Knicks @ Mavericks – 9:30pm ET - Last season these two met twice and the games exploded for 243 and 241 total points. That wasn’t a fluke; both teams still love to get up and down. Dallas plays at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA (102.9) while the Knicks sit right around league average (100.3). More importantly, New York brings the 3rd-best offense in the league (121.1 points per 100 possessions) to town tonight. Dallas ranks dead-last in offensive efficiency on the season (105.0), but they’ve woken up lately, posting 107.1 over their last 5. The bigger story is Dallas’ defense, which looks elite on paper (3rd-best DefRtg), but has been torched recently: 116 to Milwaukee, 123 to Phoenix, 133 to the Clippers, 133 to Portland, and 120 to Minnesota. Every one of those opponents is worse offensively than these Knicks. New York has also been living in the Over lately — their last 6 straight games have all totaled at least 228 points. League-wide scoring is sitting at ~234 points per game this season, making this total look suspiciously low.

ASAwins NBA play on: Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40pm ET - The Warriors are in a tough scheduling situation here which is why this line is as high as it is in Miami’s favor. Golden State played last night with the “big 3” (Green, Butler, Curry) all logging 31+ minutes. This is the Warriors 6th game in nine days, 3rd in four days and the second of a B2B so don’t be surprised if several players are rested tonight. Golden State has an overall average point differential of minus -5.8ppg on the season with a below average offensive efficiency rating (23rd) and slightly better than average dEFF (11th). Miami has been a big surprise this season and have played at the fastest pace in the league. They are 6-1 SU at home with a +6.8ppg average +/-. The Heat are about league average in both oEFF and dEFF but simply out score opponents with volume. Miami is the 8th best shooting team at 48.8%, 4th in 3PT% at 38.5%. They should get plenty of open looks against a fatigued Warriors team that ranks 20th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. Miami has the 3rd best FG% and 3PT% defense in the NBA which will limit Golden State on the offensive end. Don’t be intimidated by the spread on this game which looks unusually high, but they made it this for a reason. Bet Miami.

ASAwins NBA play on: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Injuries to both teams will dominate the headlines but the Spurs are the deeper team and can overcome the absence of Wembanyama. Memphis will be without Ja Morant so expect rookie Cedric Coward to fill his minutes. San Antonio is 6-2 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.5ppg. The Spurs are coming off a 13-point home win over the Kings with De’Aaron Fox pouring in 28-points with 11 assists. Memphis is off to a 4-10 SU start which includes a 1-5 SU road record. They are losing on the road by an average of -13.3ppg. The Grizz are in a dilemma right now and have to be considering blowing up this roster and starting over. They are bad on both ends of the court with 29th FG% overall, 27th in 3PT% and rank 27th in offensive efficiency. It’s not much better on the defensive side with the 18th ranked DEFF, 24th FG% D and 19th 3PT% defense. Memphis gives up the 27th most 2nd chance points in the NBA and the Spurs scored the 4th most. San Antonio is 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.186PPP and rank 7th in FG% (49.7%) and 17th in 3PT%. The Spurs have the better overall roster and it will show tonight against a Memphis team that has lost 4 straight on the road.

ASAwins NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs. L.A. Clippers, 7pm ET - This is a very favorable scheduling spot for the Sixers who have had 2 days of rest and now face a Clippers team playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. The Clippers lost a hard-fought game in Boston yesterday 118-121 and are now just 2-8 SU in their last ten games with 5 of those L’s coming by more than 6-points. We love the fact that Philly is rested, but also coming off a loss in their most recent game in Detroit 105-114. The 76ers continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers as witnessed by their 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in six home games this season, the two losses are respectable coming against Detroit and Boston and 3 of the four wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. The Clippers are 1-4 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -10ppg. In each team's last ten games the Clippers have a negative net rating of -7.4, the Sixers have a positive net rating of +2.9 which is a great indicator of where these teams currently stand. This game have blowout written all over it.

ASAwins NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - The Mavs continue to struggle at 3-10 SU on the season with 3 straight losses on their home court. Portland got off to a hot start to the season but have since cooled to 6-6 SU on the year. A great recent barometer of this line is the Blazers were just favored at New Orleans by -8 points just a few games ago and now laying a significantly lower number on this game. Dallas was home dogs to the Clippers by 3 and the Suns by 2 which tells us this line is about right. The Mavs' struggles start with an offense that ranks last in the league in Offensive Efficiency, scoring just 1.045-points per possession. They don’t shoot it well with an eFG% of 50.6% (27th) and make just 10.2 3-pointers per game (30th). The other big factor in this game is turnovers. Dallas averages 17.1 TO’s per game - 3rd most. Portland turns teams over 17.5 times per game - 3rd most. The Blazers are also top half of the league in OeFF at 1.172PPP while making 13.9 3-pointers per game (11th most). We will lay the short number with the road chalk here.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 234.5 Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8pm ET - Denver (124.6 oEFF) and Minnesota (120.6 oEFF) are two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. Denver is 3rd in eFG% shooting at 57.6%, the Wolves are 2nd at 58.6%. That means we don’t need a high possession game to get a higher scoring output. Minnesota is 14th in pace of play, the Nuggets are 24th. We also like the consistency from both teams when it comes to scoring in the paint with the Nuggets averaging 56.9PIP (3rd), the Wolves are 10th at 53PIP. Last 3 meetings in Minnesota: 241, 237, 235 total points. Expect another high scoring affair tonight. Our model is projecting 244.3 total points. OVER 234.5 is the call.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 222.5 Brooklyn Nets vs Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - Brooklyn is the NBA's worst defense (by a wide margin) (126.5 dEFF, 59.6% opp eFG%, 59.1 pts in paint allowed) and faces an Orlando attack that just dropped 124 points with 6 double-digit scorers vs NYK. Even without Banchero, the Magic's balance + average oEFF (115.3) should push 125–130 in this spot. The Magic should get big games from Franz Wagner (22.5ppg) and Desmond Bane (15.5ppg). Nets play slow but only need ~100 to clear — their 111.3 oEFF is enough against Orlando's middling dEFF. This series has seen the OVER cash in 4 of the last five meetings. OVER 222.5 is the call.

ASAwins NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns, 9:10pm ET - The Pacers are coming off a game in Utah on Tuesday in which they gave up 152 total points. We are betting they play much better defense tonight in Phoenix off that embarrassing showing. The Suns are coming off a game in Dallas last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights. We expect a regression in the Suns shooting as they’ve been on fire of late, hitting over 40% from deep in their last five games combined. The current league average in the NBA is closer to 35% from the 3-point line and Indiana has the 11th best eFG% D in the NBA.. We can also rely on the Pacers struggling offensively. Indiana has been hit hard with injuries and it’s shown on the offensive end of the court as the Pacers are the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to Offensive Efficiency. Indiana is averaging less than 110ppg and have the lowest eFG% in the NBA at 46.3%. Indiana is on a 5-1 UNDER run in their last six games, the Suns are 4-1 UNDER in their last five. One of our models is projecting 226.4 total points in this game, the other says 224.9. We agree and will bet UNDER here.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 233 Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, 7pm ET - The Bucks have been consistent on the offensive end of the court, ranking 10th in Offensive Efficiency (117.8) and averaging 119.6 points per game while playing at the 11th-fastest pace (101.5 possessions). Charlotte's defense has been leaky, ranking 26th in Defensive Efficiency (120.3) and allowing 121 points per game, with opponents exploiting their 26th-ranked opponent eFG% allowed (59.3%). Milwaukee's defense under Doc Rivers continues to be just mediocre. The Bucks aren’t much better than the Hornets defensively ranking 19th in Deff, allowing 117.1. Both teams shoot the ball extremely well with the Bucks ranking 2nd in eFG% shooting 58.8%, the Hornets rank 11th at 55.8%. Our math model is projecting 237 total points being scored in this one and we agree with the numbers.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -7 vs. Golden State Warriors - 8PM ET - Golden State just played in Denver last week and was +9.5 points and now they are catching a smaller number at OKC? The Thunder are rated as the best team in the NBA with an eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) of +13.2, Denver is 2nd at +13.1. Golden State ranks 13th in eDIFF and they’ve played a weaker schedule than the Thunder. The Thunder are 4-0 SU at home with a +14.4ppg average margin of victory. Since the start of last season, including the playoffs, the Thunder are 50-8 SU at home with a plus +16.2ppg average differential. THAT INCLUDES THE PLAYOFFS against the other best teams in the NBA. Golden State has a very respectable 28-26 SU road record going back to the start of last year, but are 1-5 SU away from home this season with the only win coming at LA against the Lakers. The Warriors five road losses have come by 5-points or more, three of those L’s came by double digits. We will take the Champs on their home court and expect a 10+ point win in this one.

ASA play on UNDER 237.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - We don’t see this game essentially getting into the 240’s as we start to see a regression in the Bulls shooting and pace of play. Chicago started the season above expectations with 5 straight wins but have since gone 1-3 SU in their last four. They have seen a dip in their eFG% shooting in their last 3 games and have slowed their rate of play. Looking specifically at the Bulls offensive efficiency they currently rank 14th in OEFF and 9th in pace. The Spurs are also trending down slightly in scoring going from 1.197-points per possession on the season to 1.183PPP in their last five games. The Spurs also play at a deliberate pace ranking 25th. San Antonio is also a top 5 defense in terms of defensive efficiency rankings, the Bulls rank 18th but are trending up. This is the highest O/U number set on a Spurs game this season and we don’t feel the move is warranted. Bet UNDER.

ASAwins NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - This total is inflated for a Pistons-76ers matchup that screams low-scoring grind. Detroit ranks 3rd in Defensive Efficiency at 110.2 points allowed per 100 possessions and limits opponents to the lowest eFG% (50.7%). Philadelphia counters with the 23rd-ranked Defensive Efficiency (116.3) and holds foes to 54.8% eFG% (top-18). The 76ers are elite at protecting the rim (6th in opponent points in the paint allowed at 51.0) while Detroit is 12th (42.7). Both teams play at a deliberate pace—Detroit 15th (100.9 possessions), Philly 16th (100.3)—ensuring fewer possessions. Pistons road games average 229.1 points; 76ers home contests have been higher scoring but they are coming off a game last night so expect a regression in their offensive numbers. Last season these two teams squared off 4 times and 3 of the four finished with less than 232 total points.

ASAwins NBA play on UNDER 241 Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - This total is bloated for a Blazers-Heat matchup that should stay UNDER. Portland sits 15th in Offensive Efficiency (115.8) but ranks 21st in eFG% (52.1%) and 20th from three (31.8%), struggling to consistently knock down shots. Miami counters with the 7th-best Defensive Efficiency (111.6) and 3rd in opponent eFG% allowed (51.9%), suffocating perimeter attacks. The Heat are mid-pack offensively (14th oEFF, 116.1). The Blazers defense is 10th in DEFF allowing 1.132PPP. Both teams play fast but the O/U number on this game has been inflated to account for tempo. Last season these two teams produced total points of 223 and 217. UNDER 239.5 is the call.

ASA play on UNDER 241.5 Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET - This is a pretty big Central Division showdown early in the season with the Bulls sitting 6-1, the Bucks are 5-3. These two teams are shooting above expectations early on with eFG%’s of 59.6% for the Bucks, 57.5% for the Bulls. The Bucks defense is still adapting to the new players on the roster but expect them to start trending towards a top-10 Defensive Efficiency rating as they’ve been in the upper half of the league consistently for years. Last season the Bucks finished 11th in DEFF. The Bulls were a bottom half of the league team in DEFF a year ago but currently sit 12th allowing 1.139PPP. We don’t expect a ridiculously fast game here either as these teams rank 11th and 13th in pace of play, close to league average. The Bucks were very deliberate a year ago when coming off a loss with an 15-22 UNDER record in that situation. The Bulls also favored the UNDER at a 56.6% rate when playing against a Conference opponent. Three of the four meetings last season between these two teams stayed well below this O/U. Bet UNDER.

*TOP GAME in NBA Wednesday* ASAwins NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - The 76ers have some inflated offensive numbers based on a schedule filled with some of the league's worst defenses. That won’t be the case tonight against a Cavaliers team that ranks 5th in Defensive Efficiency at 111.7 points allowed per 100 possessions and give up the 9th fewest points per game at 113.9ppg. Philly is 2nd in Offensive Efficiency (1.230 PPP) and 12th in eFG% (56.4%), but again 3 of their seven games have come against some of the worst defenses in the NBA. The 76ers play at a deliberate pace (18th in pace at 100.3) while Cleveland is slightly above average (102.0), but the Cavs dictate tempo at home. UNDER is the play.

ASAwins play on UNDER 239.5 Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls - The Chicago Bulls have posted higher totals against fast-break heavy opponents, but their defensive rating of 114.8 (13th) tightens to 112.1 in half-court sets, with a 71.2% defensive rebound rate (top-10). Philadelphia operates at a deliberate 100.3 pace (18th) and ranks 15th in defensive efficiency, limiting opponent second-chance points to 11.8 per game (9th). The Bulls play at 101.3 pace (15th), forcing 14.2 turnovers per game. Both teams defend the 3PT line extremely well (Bulls 6th at 34.1%, Sixers 2nd at 32.8%), which should nullify each other's solid 3PT shooting offensively (Bulls 38.2%, Sixers 37.9%). Last season these two teams were 20th and 23rd in Offensive Net Rating with eFG%'s at league average or below; expect regression from their current top-5 offensive ratings (2nd and 5th) as they are well above expectations. The two meetings in Chicago last season resulted in 208 and 206 total points in grind-it-out affairs. With neither team in a rush and both ranking top-10 in opponent transition points allowed, scoring will be capped.

Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics – Under 233 - The Utah Jazz have excelled offensively early, ranking 9th in efficiency at 114.8 points per 100 possessions, but their pace of 99.1 (12th) emphasizes half-court execution where they drop to 110.2 in those sets. Boston, 12th in defensive efficiency at 110.6 points per 100 possessions allowed, limits opponent second-chance points to 10.8 per game (10th) and forces 16.4 turnovers (top-8). Utah’s turnover rate of 14.8% (bottom-12) meets Boston’s elite pressure. Last season in Boston, these teams combined for 222 points in a grind-it-out affair. With both ranking top-11 in opponent FG% allowed, scoring will be stifled.

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers – Under 235.5 - The Indiana Pacers have posted higher totals against fast-break heavy opponents, but their defensive rating of 115.1 (14th) tightens to 110.8 in half-court sets, with a 72.4% defensive rebound rate (top-12). Milwaukee operates at a 102.1 pace (9th) and ranks 2nd in opponent points off turnovers (15.5), forcing 15.2 turnovers per game (top-16). Indiana’s opponent eFG% of .525 (8th) stifles Milwaukee’s volume attack (eFG% .614, 1st. Last season these two rivals met in Indianapolis five times and four of those (in regulation) stayed below this number. With both ranking top-15 in opponent transition points allowed, expect a methodical affair.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets – Under 229.5 - The Brooklyn Nets have faced a schedule of high-tempo offenses, but their defensive rating of 129.7 (30th) improves to 112.4 in half-court possessions, limiting second-chance points to 14.0 per game (12th). Minnesota, operating at a deliberate 99.6 pace (21st), ranks 19th in defensive efficiency (1.115 PPP allowed last season) and forces a league-high 18.2 turnovers per game. Brooklyn’s turnover rate of 16.4% (bottom-8) meets Minnesota’s elite ball pressure. Last season in Brooklyn, these teams combined for 195 points in a turnover-heavy slog. With both ranking bottom-10 in pace, scoring will be capped.

ASA Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks – Under 235 - The Chicago Bulls have seen elevated totals against fast-paced opponents, but their offensive rating of 110.2 (23rd) drops to 106.8 in half-court sets, with a pace of 95.8 (29th). New York, boasting a 114.1 defensive rating (15th), excels in half-court defense (0.92 PPP allowed, 8th) and limits opponent points off turnovers to 12.1 (5th). Chicago’s transition points (11.4, 26th) meet New York’s elite transition defense (9.8 allowed, 3rd). Last March in Chicago, these teams combined for 211 points in a low-possession slugfest. With both ranking bottom-12 in pace and top-10 in opponent eFG% allowed, scoring will be stifled. Projection: Under 235.5 – final score in the low 220s.

ASA Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets – Under 236.5 - The Brooklyn Nets have feasted on a soft early schedule, facing the league’s 4th-highest average opponent pace (101.2), but their defensive rating of 116.8 (25th) drops to 112.4 in half-court sets. Philadelphia, riding a 4-1 start, operates at a deliberate 97.8 pace (21st) and ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency (118.5 points per 100 possessions) while forcing 16.8 turnovers per game (top-5). Brooklyn’s interior defense allows just 42.8 points in the paint (6th), neutralizing Philadelphia’s paint-heavy attack (48.2% of points). The 76ers have gotten off to a hot start from beyond the arc with the #1 rated 3PT% in the league at 41.3% but expect a regression in those numbers considering they shot 34.1% as a team a year ago, 27th worst in the NBA. Last season these teams combined for 208, 196, 217 and 211 total points in four meetings. With both squads ranking bottom-10 in second-chance points allowed, possessions will be scarce. Projection: Under 235.5 – final score in the low 220s.

ASA Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors – Under 239.5 - The Toronto Raptors have inflated totals against transition-heavy foes, but their defensive rating of 115.2 (22nd) improves to 110.8 in half-court possessions, bolstered by a league-best 74.2% defensive rebound rate. Memphis, playing at the NBA’s slowest pace (94.1, 30th), ranks 27th in second-chance points (10.2) and forces 15.4 turnovers per game (top-10). Toronto’s opponent eFG% of .518 (4th) suffocates Memphis’s volume-shooting attack (eFG% .538, 18th). Last season in Toronto, these teams combined for 212 points in a possession-starved affair. With both ranking top-8 in opponent transition points allowed, expect a grind-it-out battle. Projection: Under 239.5 – final score in the low 220s.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 231.5 Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 6pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets have faced a schedule skewed toward high-octane offenses, inflating their recent point totals. Tonight they encounter a rested Minnesota Timberwolves squad that ranks among the NBA’s elite defensive units—7th in defensive efficiency last season (1.115 points per possession allowed) and trending toward that benchmark after an early-season dip.Without Anthony Edwards, Minnesota will lean harder on its identity: tempo control and suffocating half-court defense. Charlotte, reliant on transition and volume scoring, has struggled to generate efficient looks against top-tier defenses. Last season in this arena, the two teams combined for 207 total points.With Minnesota dictating pace and Charlotte lacking the firepower to exploit mismatches, expect a methodical, low-possession affair.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 238.5 LA Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:40pm ET - Our math model is starting to get locked in with more games and statistics available and tonight it’s focused on the UNDER in this NBA Cup game between the Lakers and Grizz. Memphis wants to play faster but has a limited roster right now with multiple key injuries. The Lakers prefer to play slow and are also without Doncic and James, two prolific scorers. LA is 10th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.170-points per possession, the Grizzlies rank 18th at 1.143PPP. Memphis is attempting 90.6 field goals per game which is 14th in the NBA, but they only make 45.7% of their attempts (20th) and 33.3% of their 3’s (23rd). The Lakers rank 30th in FGA’s per game at 80.4 but have put up points by hitting 52.5% from the field which is unsustainable. Considering the Lakers shot 47.7% a year ago, closer to the league average of 46.5%. The Lakers aren’t great from Deep either with a 31.9% 3PT% (27th). It’s early in the NBA season and games are averaging 234.4 total points per game. That average is going to slowly trend down to 227 where it typically finishes for the year. Bet the value and UNDER.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 NY Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - Our model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with it’s findings. The Bulls have the 4th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.085-points per possession. The Knicks aren’t far behind allowing 1.120PPP (11th). The Bulls currently have slightly faster pace of play numbers but they’ve also faced four teams that prefer to play uptempo. The Knicks are the 24th slowest team in the NBA at 98.7 possessions per game so they’ll look to muck this game up. The Bulls currently have solid Offensive Efficiency numbers, but again that is impacted by their schedule. The Knicks are averaging 1.120-points per possession which ranks 24th in the league. New York is shooting just 40.6% on the season (28th) and hit just 33% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have solid shooting percentages but the four teams they've beaten this season rank 18th or worse in FG% defense, which has inflated those numbers. We like UNDER in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 229.5 Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 pm ET - The betting markets are indicating that this O/U was set too high by the oddsmakers to begin with and the play to make is on the UNDER. Miami has a few outliers on their season resume with a pair of 140+ pieces against the Grizzlies and Hornets. In both of those games the Heat shot well above expectations, hitting 39 of 85 3-point attempts or 46%. Those aren’t sustainable numbers considering the NBA average is 35.6%. Not to mention, those higher 3PT% games came against the Grizzlies and Hornets who rank 29th and 27th in opponents 3PT% defense. Tonight Miami will face one of the best defenses in the NBA of the Spurs who allow just 1.049 points per possession (1st) and hold teams to 41.6 field goal percentage (2nd). San Antonio has some solid offensive numbers including the 2nd best FG% in the league but the Heat also play defense with the 4th best FG% defense and the 3rd best Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.076PPP. The Heat have a higher pace of play but that should regress too as they were the 3rd slowest team in the NBA a year ago. San Antonio prefers to play at a much slower rate with the 3rd slowest pace in the league this season. When we factor in last season's statistics our model comes up with 218.3 total points being scored in this contest. Last year on this court these two combined for 208. We are on the UNDER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -4.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - The Bulls are 3-0 with all three wins coming against playoff qualifying teams from a year ago. They have gotten great all around contributions with 6 players scoring in double-digits in all three games. The Bulls have the 10th best FG% in the NBA at 48.1% and are shooting 37% from beyond the arc (11th). They also have the 7th best FG% defense and best 3PT% D in the NBA. The Kings have gotten off to a 1-3 SU start and are in a tough scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They also are coming off an emotional game in OKC last night. Last season the Kings were 5-11 SU when playing without rest with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Chicago is on a 13-7 SU run when playing with a rest advantage dating back to last season. To be honest, the Kings have the better roster, but the Bulls are playing hard for Billy Donovan right now and benefit from scheduling. Lay it with the home team.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 at Boston Celtics, 7pm ET - Last season these two teams were eerily similar with the Cavs have the 2nd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +9.6, the Celtics were right behind them at +9.4. But that Celtics roster included Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford who are injured (Tatum) or not on the roster anymore. The Cavs return the core of their roster including All-Stars Mobley and Mitchell. The Cavs were -2-point favorites at Detroit and at New York this season and we grade those two teams significantly better than this Celtics roster. Boston is coming off their first win of the season at New Orleans who currently rate as the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to eDiff. The Cavs have won 2 straight games against Eastern Conference contenders the Bucks and Pistons. Cleveland is shooting the ball significantly better than the Celtics right now at 47.6% overall (11th) and 36.8% from deep (11th) compared to Boston’s numbers of 44.8% and 31.9% which both rank 26th or worse in the NBA.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -125 at Golden State Warriors, 11pm ET - We are not sure what Warriors coach Steve Kerr was thinking last night, leaving his starters in the game until the final 2 minutes when the game was already out of reach. Now he has a quick turnaround game against a rested Clippers team. The Warriors are 8-7 SU in their last 15 games when playing without rest and have a negative point differential in those games of minus -0.3ppg. Conversely, the Clippers have been solid when playing with a rest advantage going 14-6 SU their last 20 and winning those games by an average of +9.3ppg. L.A. has the 2nd best team FG% in the league and the Warriors rank 30th in opponents FG% allowed. Golden State is the 10th best shooting team in the NBA but the Clippers have the 6th best FG% defense in the league. It’s early so there isn’t a ton of data yet, but these two teams are near identical in Offensive Efficiency but the Clippers are much better defensively with an DEFF of 1.159PPP allowed, the Warriors at 1.193PPP. Golden State doesn’t have an answer for Clippers big man Zubac and let’s not forget the Clippers have won 7 straight in this series. Back the Clippers in this one.

ASA play on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 pm ET - It’s the battle of “beatens” tonight as the 0-3 Celtics take on the 0-2 Pelicans. New Orleans does enjoy a scheduling advantage here as they last played on Friday, while the Celtics played yesterday making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and it’s also their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have some injuries to their bigs and it's shown in their first two games, but a small lineup tonight won’t hurt them. Boston has been outrebounded 108-75 in their last two games as the offseason losses of Porzingis, Horford and Kornet have taken a toll on their frontcourt. New Orleans has lost two close games to the Grizzlies and Spurs and have been dominated inside with opponents averaging 60ppg in the paint. The Celtics can’t take advantage of that weakness as they rank 24th in points scored in the paint. Boston lives and dies with the 3-point shot and the Pelicans are 2nd in the league in 3PT% defense at 30%. The Celtics still have a bullseye on their backs from a Championship two years ago so it’s not like the Pelicans will be looking past them here. There is a reason the Pels are favored here, lay the points!

ASA play on: Hornets +4.5 at 76ers, 7:40pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets looked sharp in their season opener, dismantling the Brooklyn Nets 136-117 behind a franchise-record nine players in double figures, including 25 points from Brandon Miller and 20 points with eight assists from LaMelo Ball. Their balanced attack and 53.3% field goal shooting signal a team that's bought into new coach Charles Lee's system early—no injuries to report, and they're riding high heading into Philly. On the flip side, the 76ers' 117-116 thriller over the Celtics was a mirage propped up by unsustainable shooting from Tyrese Maxey (40 points on 13-of-24) and rookie VJ Edgecombe (34 points on 13-of-26), who combined for a ridiculous 26-of-50 from the field. That's 52% efficiency on high volume—well above Maxey's career 45.5% mark or any reasonable rookie baseline for Edgecombe. Expect regression tonight, especially with Charlotte's backcourt (Ball, Tre Mann) primed to hound them. Joel Embiid was a non-factor in his return from knee surgery, logging just 20 minutes with four points on 1-of-9 shooting and visibly limited mobility—no lift on shots, slow recovery on the floor. He's on a strict minutes cap and doesn't look anywhere near MVP form yet, leaving the Sixers thin inside against Charlotte's frontcourt depth (Miles Bridges' 18-11 double-double in the opener). Paul George remains sidelined with a knee issue, thinning the wings further.

ASAwins play on: Toronto Raptors -120 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 6:40 pm ET - We were on the Raptors in their season opener against the Hawks and they certainly didn’t disappoint with a 138-118 road win. The Raptors are one of our preseason OVER their win total futures bet with a roster capable of making a strong playoff run if healthy. Toronto shot 57% against the Hawks and destroyed them on the glass with a +20 rebound advantage. The Bucks also won their opener but it came at home against a Wizards team projected to be one of the worst in the league this season. Milwaukee shot 51% overall but have concerns with their defense that allowed 47% shooting to the Wiz who ranked 28th in the league a year ago at 43.9%. Toronto had a losing home record a year ago but suffered through an injury riddled season. The Bucks were average or 20-20 SU away last season with a negative average point differential of minus -0.9ppg.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - You may be shocked by the following but the Nuggets have dominated the Warriors in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last ten meetings. Denver is our pick to win the Championship this season with a much improved roster over last years, with the additions of Bruce Brown, Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr and Jonas Valanciunas. The Warriors looked good in their opener against the Lakers who were without LeBron, but now they step up in class against this Championship contender. Denver will again center everything they do around Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray. SGA may have won the MVP a year ago but the best player in the league was Jokic. The Joker played in just two games against the Warriors a year ago and scored 71 total points, grabbed 22 rebounds and dished out 15 assists. Golden State brought in Al Horford at center but his days of being able to contain Jokic are long gone. Denver was one of just 12 teams in the league to have a positive point differential on the road at +2.1ppg. Golden State is not as dominant at home like they used to be as they were 24-17 SU at home a year ago with an average MOV of +2.2ppg. The much better team is getting points here and we will gladly jump in with a play on Denver.

ASAwins NBA play on Toronto Raptors +5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - There are some high expectations for the Hawks this season and they find themselves in the unfamiliar role as the ‘hunted’ instead of the ‘hunter’. Atlanta made some bold moves in the offseason and brought in Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to make a bid for the Eastern Conference title. We love the young talent on this roster with Risacher, Johnson and Daniels but we’re not sure they are ready to make that type of jump, especially early on. Toronto is a sleeper team this season and one that could surprise teams early on. This Raptors team has a solid starting lineup with Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl which played well in the second half of the season a year ago. Toronto was 22-21 in the second half of the season with elite defensive numbers. From the All-Star break on, the Raptors Defensive Efficiency rating of 1.122 points allowed per possession was top 10 in the NBA. Even with injuries last season the Raptors average loss margin on the road was -5.8ppg. Atlanta was 21-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of minus -1.3ppg. The Hawks were 7-13 ATS as a home favorite last season with a plus/minus of +0.3ppg. Raptors also 21-17 ATS as a road pooch. We will grab the points but don’t be shocked if Toronto wins this outright.

ASAwins NBA play on UNDER 227.5 Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET - The public has jumped on the OVER in this game but the handle is on UNDER. We like what the betting market is saying about this game and will put our money on a low scoring affair. Obviously that is not the only reason we like this game UNDER as our math model is projecting 224.3 total points. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA defensively during the regular season a year ago allowing just 1.075 points per possession. The Rockets were 4th best in that stat category allowing 1.107PPP. OKC was 6th in pace of play, but the Rockers were 17th. The Thunder were one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA a year ago, the Rockets were 13th. Houston made a huge trade in the offseason and brought in Kevin Durant but had to give up Jalen Green in the deal. The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet for the season who was 3rd in scoring at 14.1ppg and led the team in assists. This team is going to be a match up nightmare for teams as they start 6’7 Amen Thompson then have four players all over 6’11. OKC is the defending Champ and odds on favorite to win it all again. They will however be without second leading scorer Jalen Williams for this game and could be missing Alex Caruso who was banged up in the preseason. We expect both offenses to be slightly behind the defenses to start the season and predict a game below 224.

ASA NBA play on OVER 214.5 Indiana Pacers vs OKC Thunder, Game 7 Sunday 8pm ET - Historically, Game 7’s in the NBA in the Finals typically stay UNDER the number, but that won’t be the case tonight. The value in this number is what has us on the OVER. Every game of this series has had an O/U number of 222.5 or higher. The two teams have combined to scored 215 or more in every game but the most recent in which the Thunder pulled their starters at the end of the 3rd quarter in the blowout loss. The Thunder shot poorly in the two most recent games in Indiana by going 11 for 46 (24%) from beyond the arc. You can bet the Thunder will shoot much better at home as they have in the previous 3-games in this series where they hit 40% from Deep. OKC averaged 122.6ppg at home this season, were the 8th best shooting team in the league on their court and 7th best in 3PT%. Indiana does not have a problem playing keep up with the Thunder and will score here too. The Pacers were the 6th bet shooting team on the road this season at 48% and have found answers offensively against this OKC defense. The Pacers are averaging 109ppg vs. the Thunder in this series and hitting 36.4% from the 3-point line. This number has been adjusted too low and the value is betting OVER.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225 Indiana Pacers at OKC Thunder Game 5, 8:30 pm ET - The biggest factor in the equation tonight is the pace of play. The pace of play has slowed significantly for these two teams and field goal attempts are down for both teams in this series. Indiana has stepped up defensively and the Thunder are the best defensive team in the league. The entire NBA averaged 89 (x 2 = 178) field goal attempts per game in the regular season and games averaged 227 total points per game. These two combined for 168 total FGA’s per game in the first 3 games of this series and then just 158 in Game 4. The 3-point attempts for both teams are trending down in this series with 67.4 3-point attempts (NBA ave. 74.8) in Games 1-3, then just 52 in Game 4. In Game 4 we had a Scott Foster led officiating crew that was whistle happy which resulted in 71-free throw attempts which is abnormally high for a NBA game (43 league ave.) This series has now gone to a whole different level and playoff pressure and intensity will ramp up for both teams. It will result in a lower scoring game and UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 at Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder have proven time and time again; they are championship quality and bounce back after a loss. OKC has won 5 straight playoff games when coming off a loss in the previous game and have a 18-2 SU record the entire season in that situation. Not only that, the average winning margin by OKC in those games off a loss is +14.1ppg. In the three game series the Thunder have a positive Net rating of +1.6, the Pacers are -1.6. OKC is shooting below season standards in this series at 44.8%, after hitting 47.7% during the regular season (7th best). Indiana has shot above expectations in the 3-game series and we expect a regression in their numbers in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead. OKC had the best Defensive Efficiency rating this season and held opponents to 43.6% shooting (1st). The Thunder had an average MOV on the road this season of +7.5ppg. The Pacers played at a very high level in Game 3 and got a HUGE effort from their bench, which will be tough to duplicate here. We are going to lay the points with OKC.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228.5 OKC Thunder at Indiana Pacers Game 3 8:30 pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet in the last game but will zig-zag here and play UNDER in Game 3. In Game 2 these two teams had huge 3rd and 4th quarters with 67 and 63 combined points. In the game there were 164 field goal attempts which is 14 less than the league average this season. These teams are averaging 100 possessions per game in this series and both teams Offensive Net ratings has dropped significantly in the first two games compared to the rest of the previous playoff series. OKC’s defense is suffocating with a Defensive Net rating of 109 in this series. The Thunder have an EFG% of 50.8% which is well below their season average of 56%. With the regression in pace of play, a shift to a new venue, defensive intensity from both teams in this crucial Game 3 we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:00 pm ET (Game 2) Sunday - I’m guessing most of you watched Game 1 so a recap really isn’t necessary. The bottom line is this. The Pacers led once with less than 1-second in the game. OKC led by as many as 15-points but Indiana made a few huge 3’s late to pull out the win. Down 0-1 at home we expect a blowout win by the Thunder in Game 2. Let’s not forget, the Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-8 SU at home this entire season, 34-15-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. We like OKC to bounce back here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 227.5 Indiana Pacers at OKC Thunder – Game 2 8pm ET - The Pacers had 20 turnovers in the first half of Game 1 and managed just 45 points. Now that they have the jitters out, they should be much better in that aspect in Game 2. Not to mention they now have zero pressure on them after stealing G1. OKC put up 110 points despite a bad shooting night of 40% overall, well below season standards of 47.7% (7th). The Pacers defense was 23rd this season in FG% defense allowing 47% so we can bet the Thunder have a much better shooting performance in G2. These teams got to 221 in the first game of this series despite the turnovers and poor shooting. There were 180 field goal attempts in G1 which is above the league average for the entire NBA during the regula season. These two teams have Offensive Net ratings of 115.4 (OKC) and 117.1 (IND) in the playoffs. In G1 they both had ONR's less than 109. We expect a return to the longterm statistical data in this one. They In the previous seven meetings between these two teams, they have combined for 232 or more points in every game. We expect a ton of points tonight.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-7 SU at home this entire season, 34-14-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. The last team to be that dominant at home was the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018-19 when they won by an average of 12.2ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. In the regular season meeting on this court in February, the Thunder won 132-111 as an -8-point chalk. We call for another double-digit win in Game 1.

ASA NBA play on OVER 218.5 NY Knicks at Indiana Pacers, Game 6 Saturday, 8pm ET - We are getting a couple buckets of value here after Game 5’s finish of 205 total points. That O/U was 223.5 so let’s bet contrarian here and play the OVER. The Knicks didn’t have a great 3PT shooting night in G5 at 28% and the Pacers hit just 41% overall and 33% from the 3PT line. In the two games they have lost to NY the Pacers allowed the Knicks to dictate tempo which was slower than normal. In the three games they’ve won, the Pacers have looked to push the ball in transition and create early opportunities for drive-kicks or finish at the rims. The three wins by the Pacers featured 250 total points (in regulation), 223 and 251 total points. Indiana has an Offensive Net Rating of 117 in the playoffs, the Knicks are at 112.8. We like the Pacers to shoot much better at home in this game after a very poor showing in New York. The Knicks with KAT and Brunson are more than capable of putting up points in this potential elimination game. We like the OVER here!

ASA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - I hate to say this…but the Pacers seem like a team of destiny…at least until they face the Thunder in the Finals, but let’s save that for another day. We will beat the dead horse and repeat that the Pacers, statistically by many standards, have been the best team in the NBA since January 1st. They have a +4.5 Net Rating in the postseason with an 11-3 SU record. They beat the best team in the East in Cleveland and knocked off a pretty good Bucks team. They have no problems winning on the road with a -1 SU record and a plus +5.0 Net Rating away from home. A big reason for the Pacers road success is their eFG% of 60.1%. Indiana is shooting over 42% from beyond the arc in this postseason on the road. New York has already lost 5 home games in the playoffs including two to this Pacers team. The Knicks were favored in both of those games by a similar number and KAT was 100% in those games. Towns tweaked his knee in the last game and doesn’t look like he’ll be full speed for this one. The Knicks are just 2-7 ATS their last seven home games and have an overall Net Rating in the Garden of +1.9 in these playoffs. We like Indiana here and will even sprinkle in a small moneyline wager at +155.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - Game 1 of this series finished UNDER the total with just 202 total points being scored as the Wolves had a horrible shooting night at 35% overall, 29% from beyond the arc. The last three games though have gone OVER the total with results of 221, 244 and 254 total points being scored. The average field goal attempts in this series is right at the season average for the entire league and both teams are shooting near their regular season average of 47.9% (OKC) and 46.6% (Minn) in this series. The pace of play has been slightly slower in this series than the league average pace in the regular season. What we are getting at is this…the average total points scored in a regular season NBA game was 227 this season. If these two teams were involved in a regular season game this season it averaged 224.7 points p/game. Six of the last eight meeting have gone OVER the number in this rivalry with all 6 of those games finishing with 218 or more total points being scored. Neither defense was able to contain the others offense in the last game with both teams hitting 51% of their FGA’s. There is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue tonight. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -130 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - New York won Game 3 to make this a 2-1 series but was it the case of the Knicks playing that great, or did the Pacers suffer a bit of a letdown? Obviously, it was a bit of both. We like Indiana to bounce back here with a big home win. Indiana shot above 51% in the first two games of the series, then saw a regression in G3 to 44%. They had hit 15 and 13 3-pointers in the first two games, then made just 5/25 (20%) in G3. It wasn’t the Knicks defense that caused the misses either as the Pacers had quality looks but just missed them. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. The Pacers are 4-2 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-4 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. The Pacers bounced back in the first two rounds off a loss with a 26-point win over the Bucks and a 20-point win over the Cavs. On the season the Pacers are 22-12 SU off a loss with an average +/- of +4.1ppg.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -2.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder are 16-2 SU off a loss this season with an average plus/minus of +14.6ppg. After the humbling Game 3 loss by 42-points you can bet the Thunder will be focused and extra motivated for this one. Minnesota didn’t shoot well in the first two games, then shot WELL above expectations at 57% overall and 50% from Deep in Game 3. They also committed just 10 turnovers in G3 after turning it over 17 and 14 times in the first two games. OKC shot just 41% in G3, well below their average of 47.7% which is the 7th highest number in the NBA this season. The Thunder have lost back-to-back games just two times this entire season and we don’t see it happening for a third time tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -2 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks aren’t bouncing back here down 0-2. Indiana is the younger, healthier, better overall team than New York right now. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. It’s no fluke they are in this position and on the verge of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. They eliminated a solid Bucks team in 5 games, then beat the best team in the East at the time, the Cavs in 5 games and are now up 2-0 versus the Knicks. The Pacers are 4-1 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-3 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. Indiana has figured out a way to slow down Brunson and the other Knicks haven’t picked up the slack. The Pacers take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and may even sweep this NY team.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - If the Wolves are going to win a game it's this one. The Wolves are down 0-2 in this series largely due to a couple key aspects, poor shooting and turnovers. Minnesota has an EFG% of 45.9% in this series, well below their season average of 55.4%. Back at home we can expect them to shoot better collectively than the 41% (Game 2) and 35% (Game 1) the previous two road games. The Wolves did cut down on turnovers from G1 to G2 (17 to 14) and should be even better taking care of the basketball now that they aren’t in OKC’s building. We are also betting the Thunder cannot maintain an Offensive Net Rating of 120.2 which they had in the first two games of this series. Minnesota has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason at 109 and were 6th in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season. These two teams split in the regular season so we know the Wolves can beat this team. Minnesota has been a home dog just 5 times this season and are 2-3 SU, but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +5.4ppg. We like the Wolves plus the points and would sprinkle in a smaller wager on them on the moneyline as well.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - If the Pacers were a cereal, they would be Lucky Charms! The three last-minute wins they have had in the playoffs are absolutely remarkable with the most recent borderline miraculous. Historically, teams trailing by 9+ points with less than 1-minute to play in a playoff game were 0-1414 going into Wednesday. Indiana is now that 1 team with a ‘W’. We are betting on the value and UNDER in this game after that emotional Game 1. The O/U in G1 was 221.5 so we are getting an extra possession and points with this play today. We expect a regression with both teams shooting as each hit 51% overall, the Pacers made 15/37 3-pointers for 41% and attempted 28 free throws. NY didn’t shoot as well from three at 32% but did attempt 40 FT’s, making 28. This series is about to get very physical and the team that locks down defensively is going to win. NY understands their best option to win is to NOT get into a fast paced – shootout game which Indiana prefers so expect a deliberate pace from the Knicks and a more focused effort on the defensive end of the court.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - We are betting contrarian in Game 2 of this series and like the Wolves to play much better tonight in Oklahoma City. Minnesota shot well below season standards at 35% overall (46.7% reg ssn) and 29% (37.3%) from the 3-point line than their regular-season statistics and turned the ball over 17 times. OKC had a great shooting night which will be tough to repeat as they hit 50% overall and 52% from Deep. The Wolves lost their season opener to the Warriors then bounced back with 4 straight wins and are more than capable of winning this game outright. These teams split the 4 regular season meetings and the two OKC wins came by 8-points each. The T’Wolves were solid off a loss this season with a 20-15 SU record and an average +/- in those games of plus 4.1ppg. We expect the officiating to even out more in this game after the Thunder received favorable calls in G1. Anthony Edwards took just 13 FGA’s and will be more aggressive in Game 2. Minnesota also got 20-points from Julius Randle in the first half of G1 then scored just 8-points in the second half. We expect a positive response from the Wolves.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - In Game 1 we were on the Over along with the Sharps who hammered the opening number from 214 to 219. The game obviously stayed below the number and we expected the Books to open this number closer to the closing line of G1 than the opener. As we are writing this analysis the O/U on this game has started to move up again to 215.5 despite a vast majority of tickets/money on the Under. We agree with the move and feel this line should be 224. Minnesota had a poor shooting night of 35% overall and 29% from Deep in G1 and scored 25 or less points in all 4 quarters. Granted, part of that is due to great defense by the Thunder, but we expect a positive regression to the norm for the Wolves who have an Offensive Net Rating of 112.4 in the playoffs. The Wolves shot 46.7% in the regular season and 37.3% from beyond the arc which was the 4th best percentage in the NBA. OKC is going to put up points as they have done all season and playoffs long. The Thunder are scoring 116.8ppg in the post season despite a lower-than-normal EFG%. OKC had a EFG% of 56% during the regular season which has dipped to 52.4% in the playoffs so it’s likely we see that number moving up as the playoffs progress. In four of the last five meetings these two teams have scored 217 or more total points. After a ‘feeling out’ in Game 1 we expect both offenses to put up 110+ points.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. NY Knicks - Game 1, Wednesday 8pm ET - The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of the new year, with a 42-16 record since Jan. 1, 2025. This is not a fluke the Pacers are in the EC Finals after beating the Bucks and Cavaliers. Indiana is 8-2 SU in the playoffs, covering 4 of five road games, and leads the postseason with a 58.3% eFG% and 2nd-best offensive net rating (117.3). The Knicks, fresh off a grueling six-game series vs. Boston, rank 14th in eFG% and 9th in offensive net rating (110.7). New York is not the dominant defense that Thibideau coached teams have been in the past, ranking 13th in Defensive Net Rating during the regular season and 5th in DNR in the postseason. The teams have split their last 10 meetings, but New York’s fatigue and Indiana’s rest advantage (last game May 13) give the Pacers an edge in Game 1. Indiana’s fast pace and depth could exploit New York’s heavy minutes, with Tyrese Haliburton (29.7 PPG vs. Knicks) key to their attack.

#527/528 ASA PLAY ON Over 217.5 Points – Minnesota Timberwolves vs OKC Thunder, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - This total is set too low in our opinion and we’re on the Over. In their 4 meetings this season, OKC and Minnesota averaged just under 226 total points and in 3 of those 4 games the total was set at 227 or higher. Going back further, in their last 10 meetings these 2 have had just one total set lower than 227 points. We expect an up tempo game with the Thunder playing at the 2nd fastest pace thus far in the playoffs after ranking in the top 5 in that metric during the regular season. OKC is averaging 94 shot attempts per game in the playoffs which is #1 while Minnesota is launching 85 shot attempts per game in the post season. The Thunder haven’t shot the ball great in the playoffs (45% overall and 32% from 3) well below their regular season averages, yet they are still are averaging 117 PPG. At home, that number rises to 126 PPG in the playoffs scoring at least 112 in all 6 of their home tilts in the post season. Minnesota has been shooting below their season average FG and 3 point % as well, yet they are still averaging 108 PPG in the playoffs and that includes 2 terrible offensive performances putting up 85 and 88 points vs the Lakers and Warrior respectively. In those 2 losses Minnesota was 10 of 54 (18%) from 3 which was not the norm for a team that hit 38% of their triples (4th in the NBA) on the season. Minus those 2 poor offensive efforts, the TWolves are averaging 114 PPG in the post season. These two teams have combined to play 21 playoff games this season and 13 of those have reached at least 217 total points. Both teams rank in the top 5 in Offensive Rating in the playoffs and NBA Overs are on a 28-13 run going into tonight’s game. This one goes Over the total.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - We are on the Thunder to win this Game 7 and advance to meet Minnesota in the next round. We have said all along we like OKC to win it all this season and there is no reason not to back them here at home where they are 39-7 SU/30-14-2 ATS with an average MOV of +16.1ppg. When coming off a loss this season the Thunder have an average point differential of +13.6ppg and a 15-2 SU record. The Nuggets are lacking depth and have relied heavily on their starting rotation plus Russell Westbrook. Today that could be a major factor with Aaron Gordon having a slight hamstring pull late in Game 6. He was at shootaround Saturday morning and is listed as questionable today. OKC was double-digit favorites in three home games of this series and now laying a shorter number with the season on the line. We like SGA and company to bounce back after a tough loss in Denver and win by 10+ here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 210 Boston Celtics at NY Knicks, Friday 8pm ET - We’ve got mixed feelings on the side in this game and will stay away from that bet, but we do like the Over quite a bit in this Game 6. Let’s start with this, Jayson Tatum is one of the 10 best players in the league. But the Celtics roster is deep and has been crafted with a plethora of great perimeter shooters, tough minded defenders and unselfish players. Boston moved the ball effectively on offense and it didn’t ‘stop’ in one player’s hands very often as it does with Tatum on the floor. What happens when you move the defense with your perimeter passing? You end up shooting 52% overall and 45% from Deep. That’s a recipe for success and if Boston’s coaching staff can pound that home (mainly to Brown who can also be a ball-stopper) the Celtics will put up a big number offensively again in this game. We also expect the Knicks to have a better offensive showing in this game after shooting just 36% overall with Brunson ‘only’ scoring 22-points. In eight of the last nine meetings these two have combined for 208 or more points. We like that trend to carry over tonight. NBA Overs are on a 26-12 run going into Thursday nights game.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets 8:30 pm ET - We narrowly lost with the Over in the previous game of this series with the two teams combining for 217 total points. It looked like a solid winner throughout the game until Denver went ice cold in the 4th quarters and only managed 19-points. The Vegas O/U on the five games of this series have been 229.5, 230, 232, 228 and 221.5 total points. With the over-correction to this current number we will bet Over. Both teams rank in the top 6 in the NBA in 3PT% at 36.7% (OKC) and 37.5% (Nugs). Prior to a very low scoring Game 3, these two teams had combined for more than 220 in 5 of six meetings. These were two of the top 8 fastest paced teams in the league so we should get a high possession game. The Playoff Overs are on a 26-12 run including both potential elimination games last night. Both teams will play desperately here and Denver back on their home court will shoot better than the 41% they hit last game. Lastly, these two teams ranked 3rd and 4th in Offensive Efficiency (and overall PPG) during the regular season at 1.200-points per possession. With everything on the line tonight we expect points from both teams.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7PM ET - No Tatum – No problem. The Celtics are 8-2 SU this season when Tatum hasn’t played and this teams greatest strength is their depth. The loss of Tatum is going to have a massive impact on this Celtics team moving forward, but in the short term we expect the other SuperStars on this team to step up in his absence. Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, White and Holiday can all carry their team for stretches and to be honest, the C’s late game offense has not been good with the ball ‘stopping’ in Tatum’s hands. Boston had led by 14, 31, 20 and 20-points at one time in each of the four games of this series. Boston off a SU loss this season is 21-3 SU / 19-5 ATS with an average MOV of +18.4ppg. The Celtics had the 4th best average home differential in the NBA this season at +9.0ppg and are 77-21 SU at home the past two full seasons, +11.9ppg average. Boston had the 5th best EFG% in the NBA this regular season at 56.1% and the Knicks D was slightly above average in Net Rating at 113.3. The Celtics EFG% has dipped in the playoffs but we certainly expect a better shooting night here and trust them more to shoot well versus a Knicks defense that was average this season.

ASA play on OVER 207.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7pm ET - Even without Tatum we expect the Celtics to put up points against this average Knicks defense. In the first two games of this series these two teams shot poorly but the pace of play set up for a higher scoring game. In Game 2 these two teams combined for 180 field goal attempts, in Game 1 that number was 184. The regular season NBA average was 178 FGA’s per game which resulted in 227 total points per game. These two teams ranked 2nd and 5th in Offensive Net rating this season at 117.3 (NY) and 119.5 (Bos). New York scores their points with great shooting at 48.2% overall (5th) and 36.8% (8th) from beyond the arc. Boston scores with volume and 3-pointes ranking 1st is 3PT attempts and makes per game with the 10th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Seven of the last eight meetings have resulted in 208 or more points. We expect a higher scoring game here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 pm ET - The value is obvious after these two teams just combined for only 179 total points in Game 4. The Vegas O/U on the four games of this series have been 229.5, 230, 232 and 228 total points. The over-correction in the number is not warranted, especially considering this game is back on OKC’s floor where they just put up 149 on this Nuggets team. These two teams had horrible shooting nights in the previous game with a combined 21/86 3-pointers or 24%. Both teams rank in the top 6 in the NBA in 3PT% at 36.7% (OKC) and 37.5% (Nugs). Prior to the low scoring Game 3, these two teams had combined for more than 220 in 5 of six meetings. These were two of the top 8 fastest paced teams in the league this season and we doubt the Thunder will want to play slow at home, especially when it favors Jokic in the half court sets for Denver. Bet the number, bet OVER! Going into Monday nights two games the Overs are on a 22-10 run in the Playoffs.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 231.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, 8pm ET - In this series we’ve seen total points scored of 233, 239 and 230 total points. In the first two games the Pacers shot above expectations against a Cavs defense that is one of the best in the league. In Game 3 the Pacers had a ‘normal’ shooting game and managed just 104 points. Cleveland was much better defensively with Mobley and Hunter back in the line up after missing Game 2. Indiana head coach Carlisle will have a better game plan in place to contain Donovan Mitchell who went off for 43-points last game and put the pressure squarely on other role players to pick up the scoring burden. The Pacers don’t have great overall season long defensive numbers on the season but since the All-Star break they rank 8th in Defensive Net Rating and have been much better on that end of the court. The pace of play has not been as fast as you might think and the combined field goal attempts per game is only slightly higher than the leagues average during the regular season. As both teams get to know the others tendencies more we like lower scoring games. This one stays UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

ASA NBA play on Pistons -115 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30pm ET - The Detroit Pistons, down 3-2, host the Knicks in an elimination Game 6 tonight (May 1, 2025). New York has won two close games in Detroit (118-116, 94-93) thus far in the series, but we expect that to change tonight. Let’s not forget that in the regular season Detroit won 3 of 4 against the Knicks, with Cade Cunningham averaging 30.8 points. Cunningham’s averaging 26.1 points and 9.1 assists in this series, and the Knicks haven’t found a way to slow him down. The other big edge in favor of the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have the 4th best Rebound % in the playoffs at 52.8 compared to the Knicks at 47.2%. With both teams have an identical EFG% of 50.8%, the team with 2nd chance opportunities holds a big advantage. The Knicks had a solid road record this season and would typically have the advantage with the best player on the floor with Brunson. But Brunson isn’t 100% and the case can be made that Cunningham is the best player in this series. The supporting cast for Detroit (Harris, Hardaway Jr, Duren, Schroder and Beasley) have proven they are not afraid of the big moment (unlike the Bucks young players) and should rise to the occasion at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

ASA NBA play on the LA Clippers -120 at Denver Nuggets, 10pm ET Tuesday Game 5 - At first glance this has been a very even series tied 2-2 with 3 of the four games decided by 3-points or less. In reality it hasn’t been as close as you think. The Cavs and Thunder swept their series 4-0 and have the best overall Net Rating in the playoffs. The Clippers are actually 3rd in Net Rating at +9.4 and have the 3rd best EFG% at 55.4%. In comparison, the Nuggets are 14th in NR at -9.4 and have an EFG% of 47.6% which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams. As this series wears on the Nuggets lack of depth becomes a major concern. Denver has four starters averaging over 40-minutes per game and are getting worn out by the Clippers deeper rotations. Denver is 2-3 as a home dog this season with a negative differential of -4.7ppg in that role. Historically the Nuggets are fantastic at home but to end the regular season and this playoff series has seen them go on a 3-14 ATS streak on their home court. There is a reason the Clippers are favored here. Lay it with this L.A. team.