Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – This is an interesting matchup from our perspective as we just won a wager against the Bucks on Wednesday and also won betting on the Lakers. Tonight, we have a great combination wager with an investment on the Bucks minus the points, and a play against Los Angeles. The Bucks were up 13 at the end of the 3rd and led by as many as 17 at one point over the Kings. Sacramento forced OT but the Bucks held on for the 1-point win. This is a much bigger game with a marquee showdown against LeBron and the Lakers so don’t expect a letup in this one. Milwaukee is 22-9 SU on the road this season with the second-best average point differential in the league at +6.4PPG. The Bucks were just favored by -6.5 points in Sacramento who is better than this Lakers team, yet the line is lower. We weren’t impressed with the Lakers win over the Pelicans the other night. LeBron and his lip service talked about flipping the switch on his playoff intensity and playing with a sense of urgency but he’s not living up to the talk. Sure, he’s put up impressive offensive numbers, but his defense is horrendous and it’s obvious to see he’s lost the team and their confidence. The entire team lacked the urgency LBJ talked about in a revenge game against the Pelicans, at home, off a couple bad losses AND with a limited Anthony Davis’s role. If they don’t show up for that game, they won’t show up here. L.A. has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at plus .8PPG and are just 18-12 SU in the Forum. When it comes to efficiency these two teams aren’t close. The Bucks are 4th in OEFF compared to the Lakers 21st ranking. Defensively the Bucks are 1st in DEFF while the Lakers are 12th and falling. Los Angeles played a very weak schedule prior to the break and we’re finding out just how bad this team is now that the level of competition has gone up. The Bucks by a dozen. |
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03-01-19 | Clippers v. Kings -3 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA play on: @Sacramento Kings -3 vs LA Clippers, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley (out tonight), Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings are just 1-4 SU their last five games which is why we are getting tremendous value tonight but look at who they’ve played. Sacramento has played arguably 4 of the five best teams in the league in this current stretch. They lost by 4 combined point IN Golden State and Denver, won in OKC and then just lost by 1-point to the Bucks at home the other night in over-time. Now they step way down in talent against a Clippers team that narrowly leads them in the West for the 8th and final playoff spot. The Kings have not had good success against the Clippers in recent years but these are not the same rosters. Sacramento is 100% or perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by -3.5 or less points this season (under-valued by the oddsmakers). The Clippers traded away their leading scorer in Tobias Harris and looked as it they were going to tank the rest of the season for a better draft status but they then won 3 of five games. Looking closer we see those wins came against Phoenix, Memphis and Dallas who are a combined 63-123 SU. Based on the efficiency differentials we calculate the Kings winning by 9 in this contest. Lay it! |
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02-28-19 | Wolves v. Pacers -3 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
ASA play on: #530 Indiana Pacers -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – Both teams are coming off road games last night but we like one of the best teams in the East to rebound at home with a better effort, than a Wolves team on the road again and playing out the string. Minnesota has been bad all season on the road and currently have the 7th worst road record in the NBA at 9-22 SU with an average differential of -4.7PPG (20th in NBA). When playing without rest this season the Wolves are 2-6 SU with an average differential of -3.2PPG. Indiana has the 3rd best home point differential in the league this season at plus +9.3PPG which ties in nicely to their 23-8 SU home record. The Pacers are also 8-3 SU/ATS when playing without rest this season. Karl Anthony Towns had a monster game last night in their OT loss in Atlanta with 35 points and 18 rebounds, but he’ll have a very hard time duplicating those numbers against the defensive minded center for Indiana, Miles Turner. The Wolves have just 1 road win in their last seven away from home and that came against the lowly Knicks. The Pacers on the other hand are 12-3 SU their last 15 at home and the three losses came to the Bucks, Warriors and 76ers. Of those 12 wins only ONE came by less than 8-points and ALL twelve came by 4 or more points. With the 76ers nipping at the Pacers heels in the East we like them to get this home win by 8 or more. |
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02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
ASA play on: #526 LA Lakers -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:30PM ET – If you’ve read our opinions on LeBron and the Lakers you clearly know where we stand on this subject. I personally feel LeBron is a fraud and all this drama this season surrounding the trade deadline was caused by him (and his agent). He knew what the roster was going into the season but was more concerned at that time about the glitz and glam of Hollywood. You make your bed, you must sleep in it. But that’s a side point and I got distracted. When it comes to investing, we put all of that aside though as it’s about the Benjamins and how many we can take from the Books. We are betting the Lakers show up tonight as this game is on national TV and the Pelicans just beat them the other night which helped escalate all the talk in the media. The Lakers were JUST FAVORED by -6.5-points IN NEW ORLEANS and now are laying less than that here? So, what you’re telling me is that the Lakers just got 10-points worse in 5 days? Yeah, no way. The Pelicans are just 9-23 SU on the road this year with a negative differential of -1.8PPG. Digging deeper we find the Pels are just 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS versus the Western Conference. The Lakers most recent home game was a 5-point win over Houston so asking them to cover this number is not too much to ask for. With Anthony Davis having a limited role for New Orleans it only adds to our confidence in our wager as we know they won’t jeopardize his trade value by playing him late in this contest. The Lakers get revenge here and win by double-digits! |
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02-27-19 | Bucks v. Kings +6.5 | Top | 141-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: #526 Sacramento Kings +6.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET – The Sacramento Kings have been VERY good to us this season as we’ve won nearly every time we’ve bet on or against them. The Bucks continue to hold the best record in the NBA at 46-14 SU and the public has taken notice. Most of the tickets and money tonight has been bet on the Bucks. That’s perfect for us as it gives us added value with the up-and-coming Kings. Milwaukee is 14-6 SU against the West this season but just 10-10 ATS which tells us they haven’t been good versus the West as a favorite. The East has improved dramatically but the West is still deeper from top to bottom. Proof of that is Sacramento’s 14-5-1 ATS record (14-6 SU) against the East and they are currently 9th in the West. The Kings recently played 3 games against three of the best teams in the West on the road. They lost to the Warriors by 2, Denver by 2 and beat the Thunder. They return home off a road loss, facing a public team like Milwaukee which will have their full attention. The Bucks have a solid +6.6 points per game road differential this season, but that number is inflated by some blowout road wins over the weaker teams in the East (+14PPG in 6 games against the likes of Chicago, Washington, Orlando, Atlanta, New York and Cleveland). Sacramento is 9-1 SU their last ten home games, prior to that they were home dogs to Golden State and Denver, and they lost both by just 4-points each. This is an easy call with the young Sacramento Kings at home. |
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02-25-19 | Suns v. Heat -8.5 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: #568 Miami Heat -8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 7:30PM ET – The Suns are obviously one of the teams currently in the NBA that are “not tryin for Zion”. Phoenix has lost 17 straight games and 24 of their last 26. They have some ugly road losses in that stretch too. In their two most recent road games they’ve lost to the Hawks by 8 and the Cavs by 13 who are two of the other worst teams in the league. The last time the Suns won a road game was back on December 26th in Orlando and 11 of their last fourteen road beats has come by 8 or more points. The Heat are fighting for their playoff lives and currently sit a game-and-a-half behind Charlotte for the 8th and final spot. Miami has lost two straight with the most recent being an upset at home to a hot Detroit team, so I expect them to bounce back here. Phoenix has an average differential on the road of -13PPG which is the worst number in the NBA and if the Heat can’t beat the Suns at home by double-digits who can they beat that badly at home? We will go contrarian here and lay the points with Miami when most will stay away from this bet. |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: #555 Orlando Magic +9.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 3:35PM ET – This is a great spot to play on the Magic and against the Raptors. Orlando went into the All-Star break on a solid streak by winning 5 straight games and 7 of their last eight games overall. They then came out of the break and were upset by the Bulls as an 8-point chalk. That will have them refocused here in Toronto. The Raptors may not be dialed in here today for the following reasons. One, they are coming off a huge home win versus the Spurs which was DeRozan’s first game back in Toronto, along with Leonard facing his former team. Two, the Raptors have a HUGE game on deck against Boston. Three, the Raptors beat the Magic by 29-points earlier this year so it will be easy to overlook them. In their last eight road games the Magic’s largest negative differential was -10-points in OKC. Their other road losses have come by 5, 4 and 5-points. The Raptors have one of the best home records in the NBA at 25-5 SU with a +8.1-point differential but clearly that differential won’t get the cover here. Toronto is just 8-15 ATS when laying 9 or more points this season. Grab the generous points and Orlando in this game. |
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02-23-19 | Kings +6 v. Thunder | Top | 119-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers (35-23 ATS). Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Thunder have similar numbers offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings, but OKC is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th) and score 113.6PPG which is 9th in the NBA. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 44% shooting and that includes two games against the other two best teams in the West, Denver and Golden Stage. The same can’t be said for Oklahoma City who has allowed opponents to hit nearly 47% of their attempts in their last five. The Kings were recently a 7-point dog in Denver (who we rate better than OKC) and lost by just 2 points. Sacramento was just +12 in Golden State and took the Warriors to the wire, losing by just 2. The Kings last four road games have been decided by 2, 2, 4 and a 3-point win. OKC is coming off a double OT game last night versus Utah which saw Westbrook play 42+ minutes, George 50+, Adams 47+. The Thunder were a 4-point favorite last night and their isn’t much difference between the Kings and Jazz currently. The Kings 6-1 ATS steak versus the Thunder improves by a ‘W’ tonight. Grab the points! |
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02-22-19 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 147-148 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on: #529 Utah Jazz +4 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:35PM ET – The Jazz knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last season and OKC has gotten their revenge on Utah twice already this season. With this being the 3rd meeting of the season that ‘revenge’ angle has worn off. Last night we liked Boston and the points over Milwaukee because of the edge with a good coach and extra time to prepare which is much like tonight’s contest with Quin Snyder and the Jazz. Utah is one of the better road teams in the NBA with a 14-15 SU record and a differential of +.2 which is 7th best in the league. They have been especially good off a loss with a 15-9 SU record, 14-3 ATS their last seventeen in that situation. Overall, as a dog in this price range the Jazz are 7-4 ATS this season. Oklahoma is clearly a team that could come out of the West (as is Utah) and they’ve been red hot of late with a 12-2 SU run, but only five of those wins have come against teams with an above .500 record. The line on this game is very inviting to bet OKC which has a ton of public money and tickets, so we’ll obviously bet the other way. Take Utah plus the points! |
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02-21-19 | Celtics +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
ASA play on: #507 Boston Celtics +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – It’s do-or-die time for the Celtics who sit 4th in the East but are tied with Philly. Clearly the top 4 spots in the conference get home court in the first round which makes this final stretch of the regular season critical. Boston has had their issues on the road against good teams, but they do have a positive road differential of +2.8PPG which is the 5th best number in the NBA. The C’s come into this game having won 12 of their last fifteen games and have only been a road dog of 5 or more points just two times this year. We are not over-looking Milwaukee’s 14-2 SU run or their home point differential, but the situation clearly favors the dog here. Boston has the best coach in the game in our opinion and with the added rest and lack of distractions from the All-Star game he’ll have the perfect game plan for this game tonight. Boston has covered 9 of the last twelve meetings with the Bucks and they’ll keep this close throughout and I’m not surprised if they win outright. |
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02-13-19 | Kings +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Sacramento +7.5 over Denver, Wednesday at 9:05 PM ET The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Nuggets have similar numbers defensive when it comes to efficiency ratings, but Denver is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th). Denver had lost 3 in a row on a road trip then came home and caught the Heat in a perfect letdown situation the other night for a solid home win. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 43% shooting. The same can’t be said for Denver who has allowed opponents to hit over 48% of their attempts in their last five. Sacramento hasn’t had much success in Denver, but they are a completely different team right now playing with confidence. Grab the generous points with the Kings who will keep this close throughout. |
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02-11-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 87-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
ASA play on: #568 Denver Nuggets -9.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – From a scheduling standpoint you couldn’t ask for a better situation to play on Denver and against Miami. The Heat are off a demoralizing loss at Golden State yesterday, playing tonight without rest in the higher altitude and this is their 3rd game in four nights. Denver on the other hand just suffered a 3-game road losing streak and saw their lead over OKC for the second spot in the West shrink to just 1 game and now trail Golden State by 3. Denver has the leagues best home record of 23-4 SU and the second-best home differential of 12PPG. Prior to beating Portland on this current road trip, the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential (+.4), BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Miami is 4-3 SU when playing the second night of a back to back but this situation is different considering what they are coming off and where they play tonight. Miami was just +13.5 points at Golden State and +7 in Portland so you can see for yourself this line is too low based previous spreads. Denver is nearly equal to Golden State and we feel this line should be -11.5 or -12 at the very least. In fact, the Nuggets were recently -10 against Philly at home and are laying less here. The Nugs are on a 20-8 spread run at home and have covered 4 of their last five versus teams with winning road records. The bet here is clearly Denver! |
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02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -3 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings -3 over Miami Heat, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and we’re not about to abandon them in this situation. Sacramento had won 3 straight at home against Atlanta, Philly and San Antonio before a blowout loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. In other words, two quality wins over playoff teams in the 76ers and Spurs. The letdown game against the Rockets is excusable as the players were dealing with rumors of potential trades, along with a big win over the Spurs in the previous game. Now they are home, off a bad loss against an average team from the East (West has dominated the East overall this season). Miami meanwhile is coming off a big upset win in Portland as a 7-point underdog. Prior to that win the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential, BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight at home and 10-4 SU their last fourteen with the four losses coming against the best teams in the West (Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets). Easy call here with the Kings at home minus the short number. |
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02-04-19 | Spurs v. Kings +2 | Top | 112-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
ASA play on: #542 Sacramento Kings +2 over San Antonio Spurs, 10PM ET – We’ve won a lot this year playing on the Kings and will add to your bankroll with another wager on them tonight. Sacramento is a young, fun and exciting team on the rise in the NBA this season. The Kings sit 9th in the West and are just 1-game behind the Clippers for the 8th and final playoff spot. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home on the season and have won 6 straight on their own floor. Prior to the 6-game home winning streak they had lost two games to the Warriors and Nuggets (arguably the 2 best teams in the NBA) by 4-point each. Now they face a Spurs team that is just 10-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is right around the league average. Not to mention, that most of the Spurs 10 road wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the league. In fact, only 3 of the Spurs 10 road wins came against teams with winning overall records. San Antonio is just 4-3 ATS as a small favorite in this price range, the Kings are 6-3 ATS as a small dog in this price range. Sacramento keeps the positive momentum rolling after a big home win over the 76ers on Saturday with another home win here. Take Sacramento! |
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01-29-19 | Bucks v. Pistons +8 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
ASA play on: Detroit Pistons +8 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – The Bucks are coming off a loss in Oklahoma City and haven’t lost two consecutive games this season. BUT they must win this game by 8 or more points, and we don’t think they’ll do that. Let’s talk about value here first. The Bucks hosted the Pistons on January 1st and were -10 points at home. In mid-December the Bucks were a -3-point favorite in Detroit and won 107-104. You can see for yourself the over-adjustment the oddsmakers have made on tonight’s number. Milwaukee also has a MUCH bigger game on deck in Toronto and may get caught looking past a team they just beat by 23 a few weeks ago. Detroit is well rested here with their last game being on January 25th in Dallas. They are 21-27 SU on the season and It’s becoming a dire situation if they want to make the playoffs this season. Of their 27 losses this season, fourteen have come by 8 or less points. They have an overall negative differential of -2.6PPG on the season, +.1 at home. The Bucks have failed to cover 4 straight games which is a sign the lines are catching up to them. The Pistons are the play here and they will get their 7th cover in their last nine games. |
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01-21-19 | Blazers +5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASA play on: #526 Portland Trailblazers +5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – Let’s double up on our NBA profits today with a late game winner on this Western Conference showdown. Earlier today we cashed with a wager on the Under in the Pistons vs. Wizards game. We like the Blazers here for several reasons including double-revenge from two losses to the Jazz in late December. Portland is playing well right now have faced a tough schedule coming into this game. In their last four games on the road the Blazers have gone 2-2 SU with wins at the Warriors and Kings, two losses in Denver by 3 and at Sacramento by 8. In the game at Denver they were +4.5 points and at the time the Nuggets had the best overall record in the West. Now they are catching more points against the 7th seed Jazz? The over-correction by the oddsmakers is due to the Blazers current 6-game winning streak, but don’t be fooled by that number. Utah’s last six wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (Cavs and Bulls), a 19-win Magic team, a 20-win Pistons team, the Lakers without LeBron and the Clippers. We’re not impressed. The Jazz have some injuries at guard right now which is a strength for the Blazers with Lillard and McCollum, who combined average 46PPG, over 8 RPG and nearly 9 assists per game. The Blazers are quietly on a 5-1 ATS run and playing with plenty of motivation here after a pair of losses late last month. Grab the points! |
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01-18-19 | Heat +1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points! |
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01-14-19 | Blazers v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win. |
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01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder -5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10. |
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01-04-19 | Mavs +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 93-114 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston. |
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01-02-19 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -6 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one. |
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12-30-18 | Bulls v. Raptors -10 | Top | 89-95 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border. |
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12-29-18 | Spurs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 122-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight. |
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12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings. The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points. |
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12-27-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 116-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ. |
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12-26-18 | Wolves -4 v. Bulls | Top | 119-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th. Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP. It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight. |
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12-19-18 | Cavs v. Hornets -13 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana. |
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12-16-18 | Kings +5.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-113 | Win | 101 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court. |
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12-15-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright. |
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12-13-18 | Lakers v. Rockets -5 | Top | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more. |
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11-29-18 | Warriors +9 v. Raptors | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close! |
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11-28-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans -6 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here. |
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11-19-18 | Thunder -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits. |
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11-08-18 | Bucks v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland. They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them. It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*. BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game. The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday. |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points. |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7 less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers. Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss. |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 101 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET. Contrary to what you might think about Philly climbing back into this series, it’s not going to happen. Again, we’ve beat this horse to death, but Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is just better than anyone else. Stevens will adjust Philly’s move with T.J. McConnell who scored 19 in Game 4 and nullify the Sixers advantage there. If you are a ‘value’ bettor, then you’re doubting this wager as the C’s were +4.5 points at home in Game 1 but the reality is the line tonight STILL isn’t where it should be as the Celtics should be a 4-point chalk. Boston has not lost at home in the post season and are on a current 11-1 ATS streak at home. On the year the C’s are 33-14 SU at home with an average point differential of +5.4PPG. Boston has won 5 straight games at home when coming off a loss in their previous game. Boston is the better team with the better coach and playing at home. Just win! |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Game 3 @New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Friday 8PM ET - Yes, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and clearly adds another dimension for the Golden State but we really like the Pelicans body of work down the stretch of the regular season and the first round of these playoffs. Let's not forget the Pelicans roasted a solid Blazers team in four games and had won five straight to end the regular season, all by double digits. New Orleans is 8-2 SU their last 10 games with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Anthony Davis is GREAT and is arguably the best player in the NBA right now to build a franchise around. The Pelicans have also gotten fantastic play out of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. In Game 2 the Pels lost by just 5-points and they only attempted 9 free throws compared to Golden State going 22 of 27. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even with Steph Curry (who is not 100%) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a road point differential of +4.4PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from +7.49PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 18-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-18 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. New Orleans at home this season had a positive home differential of +1.4PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points! |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We were a perfect 3-0 with our Side wagers on the Cavs/Pacers series and are extremely dialed in on the Cavs right now and just how good they are. The answer is, they're certainly not the best team in the East and will have a very tough time advancing past this round. LeBron James has carried this team and logged a ton of minutes in the round one series against the Pacers. The Cavs got some very favorable calls in Game 7 against the Pacers and won't get those same calls in Game 1 of round 2. Statistically, the Raptors were the second best overall team in the NBA over the course of the regular season. They were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency, Houston was the only team better. Let's look inside the numbers for this game. The Cavaliers are 24-24 SU this season against all the other playoff teams in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.1PPG. Cleveland was 7-16 SU on the road against other playoff teams and those 16 losses came by an average of 12PPG. Toronto on the other hand was 27-20 SU against other playoff teams this season with a positive differential of +4.2PPG. The Raptors were 18-6 SU at home versus other playoff teams this season and the wins came by an average of 13PPG. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Raptors were 5th in DEFF this season while the Cavs were 29th. Those numbers support the glaring difference between these two teams currently. Even though the Cavs have owned the Raptors with an 8-2 SU record the last ten meetings, the situation clearly warrants a bet on Toronto. The Raptors were 37-7 SU at home this season with a +10.4 point differential. Lay the points in Game 1. |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET - We are not sold on the Warriors yet after their first round series win over the short-handed, older Spurs. Golden State limped into the post season and didn't really play 'that well' against the Spurs. Conversely, the Pelicans totally dismantled the Blazers in a 4-game sweep and have now won 9 straight games, including wins over playoff teams like San Antonio and Golden State. Yes, everyone knows how great Anthony Davis is but the big difference for the Pelicans has been the play of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. He's also been fantastic defensively and could be used in a matchup with Klay Thompson. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even without Steph Curry (who MAY play tonight) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a home point differential of +7.6PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from 15.9PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 17-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-17 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points |
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04-25-18 | Pacers +6 v. Cavs | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers +6 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7Pm ET - Except for a blowout win in Game #1 by the Pacers this has been a tightly contested series that has gone down to the wire in three straight games. Has the Cavs defense been great in the post season or has Indiana's offense been bad? The Pacers are getting uncontested shots in this series, but just not making them. Indiana is 13th out of 16 playoff teams in effective field goal percentage shooting, and if those numbers trend back to normal, the Cavs are in big trouble. It's well documented Cleveland's defense was one of the worst during the regular season so it's not like they've fixed that end of the court in the playoffs. Cleveland had an average point differential at home of just +1.1PPG during the regular season which ranked 18th in the entire league. The only other playoff team that had a worst home differential was Milwaukee. Indiana had the 11th best road differential of -.2PPG and are clearly confident they can win on this court after their blowout win in Game 1. If Victor Oladipo can find his shooting touch in these last few games the Pacers win this series. Take the points. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – We used the Celtics in Game 1 of this series and laid 4-points so why wouldn't we lay a smaller number here. Don't write the Celtics off just because they lost two games in Milwaukee. The Bucks shot extremely well at home which was surprising considering they were up against the number two ranked defensive field goal percentage unit. In Game 3 of this series the Bucks shot over 52% from the field and barely held on to beat Boston by 2. The Bucks defense was horrendous down the stretch of regular this season and hasn't been much better in this series. Milwaukee was 19th on the year in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.101 points per possession and in the post season they rank 11th, out of 16, in that same statistical category. The Celtics have the best DEFF in the NBA and own a huge edge on that end of the court. Milwaukee was 19-22 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.9PPG. The Bucks are just 19-27 SU against current playoff teams with a lost margin of -3.5PPG. Boston has an average winning margin at home this season of +4 and are 19-9 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. Milwaukee won't continue to shoot as well as they have in the previous two games and the C's get a big home win here. |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -6 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets -6 @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:00PM ET – Houston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and we like them off a loss (12-6 SU) here. The one glaring stat we see from Game 3 is how well the Wolves shot the 3-ball. Minny was 15 of 27 from beyond the arc which was VERY uncharacteristic as they are a 35.9% (19th) shooting team on the season. In Games #1 and #1 they hit just 27.8% and 34.8%. Not to mention the Rockets were the 6th best team in the NBA this season at defending the 3 (allowed just 35.2%). It's highly unlikely they shoot it as well in this game as they did in Game 3. The Rockers were favored in Minny this year by 7-points and -3.5-points in the two regular season meetings here so don’t be intimidated by the spread. Houston won those two regular season clashes by 18 and 9 points. The Rockets had the best point differential in the NBA on the season at +8.4PPG overall and on the road at +7.5PPG. What’s most amazing about this team is there 34-10 SU record against other playoff teams with a differential of +7.3PPG. The Wolves average home differential of +5.7PPG on the season (8th best in NBA) is decent, but those numbers are inflated against the bad teams. When it comes to playing other playoff teams the Wolves are just 20-25 SU overall with a negative differential of -2.1PPG. The Wolves allow foes to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts on their home court which is the 3rd worst number in the NBA and bad news facing the Rockets. |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – Casual bettors are backing OKC after their Game 1 win but let’s not ignore the whole body of work leading up to this playoff series. Since the All-Star break there haven’t been many teams better in the NBA than Utah. They’ve gone 18-7 since the break, allowing just 96PPG while scoring 106PPG. The Jazz have the best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the 7th in FG percentage defense (45%) but they allowed OKC to shoot over 48% in Game 1. Utah also had the best fast break D in the league this year by allowing just 9.7PPG in transition. OKC more than doubled that number with 22 points on the break. The Thunder played very well in the opener and still only won by 8-points in Game 1. Let’s not forget the Jazz ended the regular season on a 15-2 SU run their last 17 road games. Utah was the 6th slowest paced team in the NBA this season so look for them to slow the tempo to a crawl which will make the points a premium. The bet here is UTAH AND THE POINTS! |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -6 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Portland Trailblazers (-6) over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:35PM ET - This clearly is a do-or-die situation for the Blazers at home down 0-1 in the series. Lose this game and you've wasted 82-regular season games. On the other hand, New Orleans is a little 'fat' off that upset win in Game 1. Portland had an off shooting night in G1 by hitting just 38% from the field and 31% from beyond the arc, which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 45% and 37% comparatively. The Blazers had less turnovers and more rebounds but just didn't make shots. These same two teams met in New Orleans in late March with the Blazers winning by 4-points as a 2-point road favorite. Prior to this home loss, the Blazers had gone 12-2 SU at home their last 14 and 7 of those wins came against other playoff teams. New Orleans has been a very good road team this year with some positive differentials but this just isn't a good situation for them. The Pelicans closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins that look good on paper (won at GST, LAC and beat the Spurs) but given the circumstances it's not as impressive as it looks. The Warriors had nothing to play for, the Clippers were eliminated and San Antonio was resting. Prior to that stretch the Pelicans were just 3-5 SU their last eight away from home against playoff teams. There is only one way to bet this game and it's on Portland. |
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04-14-18 | Heat +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-130 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat +6.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8M ET - We like the veteran Heat and the points over the upstart Sixers in this matchup. Yes, we know Philly closed the season on a red hot run but the playoffs are a whole different beast. This series was 2-2 during the regular season with the 76ers winning at home by just 2 and 6 points respectively. The Sixers were 52-30 SU this season but only 20-23 SU against other playoff teams with a point differential of just .2PPG. That's hardly a big enough margin to get a cover in this game. Miami was 17-23 SU this year against other playoff teams, but 14-10 against the top 8 teams from the East. The Heat had a positive differential of +1.7PPG against the rest of the contenders from the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia closed the regular season on a 16 game winning streak which has forced this line to be inflated higher than it should be. Especially considering 13 of those sixteen wins came against non-playoff teams. Philly was just 11-10 ATS when laying more than 7-points this season and are now in the unfamiliar role as a large home chalk in a rare playoff appearance. Miami has a few key edges on the floor in the opener with center Whiteside in the middle and no Joel Embiid on the floor for Philly. Whiteside averaged 19PPG in his three meetings with the 76ers this season and D-Wade dialed back the clock in one of the meetings with 27. We like the veteran leadership the Heat have here and won't be surprised if they start this series up 1-0. |
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04-11-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 98-122 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs (+4.5) over New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET - With so much on the line for playoff seeding we like the veteran Spurs to get a much needed win here. The Pelicans have made a late season run to qualify for the post season but let's take a closer look. New Orleans beat the Clippers after they were eliminated, a Warriors team that quit playing, Phoenix and Memphis. Prior to that they had lost four straight games against playoff teams (Thunder, Cavs, Blazers and Rockets). The Spurs have done a balancing act between rest and competing down the stretch which has produced a 4-2 SU record their last six. Three of those four wins came against Portland, Houston and OKC. New Orleans has a 23-17 SU record at home this year but their average point differential is under 1PPG. San Antonio has a losing road record this season at 14-26 SU but their average loss margin is just -1.1PPG which would clearly get us a cover here. The Pelicans have a 9-17 SU record this year against the top 8 teams in the West with a negative efficiency differential. The Spurs have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA when they play on the road and we love defensive underdogs. San Antonio would slip to the 8th seed with a loss and despite what Pop and the players say they would love to avoid the Warriors and Rockets in the first round. |
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04-10-18 | Warriors v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 79-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Utah Jazz -7.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9M ET - This is an interesting game that has seeding implications in the West. The Jazz can keep their hopes alive for the #3 seed in the West with a win tonight. Utah trails the Blazers by a game for that coveted spot and they meet tomorrow night in the season finale, but they must win tonight. Golden State has other motivations for tonight and that might be to NOT win this game. If the Warriors were to win this game they could end up bumping the Jazz down a few spots in the standing to the 7th seed . Then they'd have to face this DANGEROUS Utah team in the first round and nobody in the West wants this Jazz team right now with how they are playing. The Warriors have had numerous injuries and added rest heading into the post season is a priority. The Jazz are 29-5 SU their last 34 games and have done it with a defensive efficiency rating that is best in the NBA since the All-Star break. It's not like Utah will be intimidated here as they've beaten the Warriors in the last two meetings by 30 and 19 points respectively. The number set by Vegas is clearly higher than it should be as they try to entice Warrior backers. We won't fall for it. Lay the points! |
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04-09-18 | Thunder -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 115-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) over Miami Heat, 7:35PM ET - At first look the 'value' in the number here seems very attractive with the home underdog but late in the season 'value' becomes less important in particular situations. This is one of those rare cases you can't be tempted by the home underdog given the circumstances. A desperate Thunder takes on a Heat team that has struggled to a 14-15 record since Feb. 1, playing below-.500 basketball for two-plus months. Miami's recent stretch has seen them go 3-2 SU but their three wins came against lottery bound Chicago and Atlanta twice. Oklahoma City is 14-9 SU their last 23 games and it's come against a brutal schedule. All 9 of the Thunder's losses have come against playoff teams. OKC has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +1PPG and are coming off a confidence building win over Houston. The Thunder need to win to get in and can still grab home court in the first round of the playoffs. Granted Miami is a playoff team but they really don't have anything to play for. In fact, the Heat might be better off with a loss here as it would move them to the 7th seed in the East which would mean a first round matchup with the injury depleted Celtics. In their most recent game the Heat gave extended minutes to everyone and seem more intent on staying healthy than winning right now. With Memphis on deck they'll get their morale-boosting win in their next game. Miami home differential of +2.5PPG is barely above league average. The Thunder have beaten the Heat four straight times all by 6 or more points. Take the team with incentive here! |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -6 | Top | 126-120 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:35PM ET - Let's start with the fact that the Warriors don't really have a lot to play for other than finishing higher than the Raptors in the East if Toronto would make the Finals. In reality I doubt the Warriors are thinking that but they will be focused here after a horrible showing in Indiana in their last game. Coach Kerr blasted them after the game so we should get great effort here. Golden State is 17-4 SU off a loss this season, 8-3 at home. New Orleans is in a tough scheduling spot as they are playing their 2nd night of a back to back and their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have struggled against good competition with a 18-23 SU record and negative efficiency differential. Golden State on the other hand is 25-14 SU against other playoff teams with a huge efficiency differential. Even with a 'down' season by the Warriors recent standards, they have a plus +8-point home differential that is 3rd best in the NBA. Golden State has beaten this team by 8, 15 and 10 points in the three meetings this season. GST has covered 4 of the last five in the series on this court. We will lay the points with the Warriors here. |
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04-04-18 | 76ers v. Pistons +3 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Detroit Pistons +3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Detroit Pistons have zero wiggle-room right now as a loss eliminates them from the playoffs but they've vowed to make Milwaukee earn it. Detroit has played some of their best basketball down the stretch by winning 5 straight and 7 of their last eight (8-0 ATS). The Pistons are 6-1 SU since point guard Reggie Jackson (right ankle sprain) returned from injury and their record is 25-15 SU with him in the lineup. On the year the Pistons have a plus +3.7 point home differential and are 8-6 SU at home against Eastern Conference Playoff teams this season. Philadelphia is on a red hot 11 game winning streak but only two of those wins were against +.500 teams and both were at home with Joel Embiid in the lineup. The Sixers are just 9-16 SU against the top 8 teams in the East and 2-11 SU away in that situation. Philly is playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back while the Pistons have been off since Sunday. The 76ers are just 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS when playing without rest and they have a much bigger game on deck Friday against the Cavs who are ahead of them in the standings. Take Detroit! |
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04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
ASA’s PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -4 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – These two teams are both playing for the post season but have various levels of urgency. The Bucks are in already and could move up to 7th or even 6th with some help from Miami and Washington. Denver though is fighting for their playoff lives as they are 2 games out of the post season which makes this game dramatically more important for them. The Nuggets have been fantastic at home this year with a 27-10 SU record and a point differential of +6.2PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bucks on the other hand are 18-20 SU away from home with a negative point differential of -1.1PPG. Denver’s last three home wins have all come by 7 or more points and in this do-or-die situation we expect a win by that margin or more. The Bucks are coming off a pair of road wins and playing their 4th straight away from home in a 6-day span. The Nuggets have owned the Bucks here covering 14 of the last eight meetings in Denver. We also like the value here considering the Nuggets were recently favored by -8.5 points against the Pistons. Take the Nuggets and lay the points. |
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03-30-18 | Pelicans +4 v. Cavs | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans (+4) @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We won't hesitate to take the points and the Pelicans here as the Cavs continue to have the worst spread record in the NBA. On the season the Cavs are just 27-47-1 ATS, 10-25-1 ATS at home. I literally laugh out loud when I hear the talking heads proclaim the Cavs are playing great right and poised to make a run in the Playoffs. It couldn't be further from the truth and it Cleveland ends up with a first round series with Washington they not make it out of the opening series. The Cavs have won 7 of their last ten games but only 2 of those wins came against Playoff bound teams and both were at home. On the season the Cavs are just 17-20 SU versus current playoff teams, 4-11 SU against the top 8 teams from the West. The Cavaliers efficiency differentials in those 15 games is horrendous. Cleveland's defense is the problem as they rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, only the Suns are worse. The Pelicans are in desperation mode here as they only lead the 9th place Clippers by 2 games in the Western Conf playoff race. New Orleans is 23-14 ATS on the road this season and have been rock solid against the best teams in the East with a 10-5 SU record versus the top 8 teams. The Pelicans road point differential at plus .4PPG is nearly as good as Cleveland's home differential of +.8. Easy call here to take NO plus the points. |
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03-27-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -8.5 | Top | 110-114 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Toronto -8.5 over Denver, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET The situation clearly favors Toronto here as: 1) They catch the Nuggets off a game last night and are rested themselves. 2) Denver's leading scorer Gary Harris is out. 3) Toronto is coming off a RARE home loss to the Clippers in their previous game. If we look inside the numbers we find that Denver is just 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back, which gets magnified without their best player. Toronto off a loss have been fantastic with a 15-4 SU overall record, 8-0 SU at home. When the Raptors are playing at home off a home loss they are 4-0 and those four wins came by an average of 20PPG. Toronto has the best home court point differential in the NBA at +10.3PPG with a 30-7 SU record. Denver has not been a great road team all season long with a 13-24 SU road record and a minus point differential of -3.7PPG. The Raptors are still playing for something as they want the second best overall record in the NBA in case they would meet Golden State in the Finals they would have home court advantage. This one won't be close, lay the points! |
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03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers (-3) over LA Clippers, 7PM ET - We like the home team Pacers here and don't expect this game to be close. Indiana is coming off a really poor shooting night on the road Wednesday in New Orleans, but look for that to change on their home court where they shoot 48% on the year. The Pacers have a +3.2 point differential at home on the year and have covered 5 straight home games as a favorite. Also, the Pacers have cashed in 10 of their last fourteen as a small favorite of less than -3.5 points. The LA Clippers are in a tough stretch here with just 1 win in their last five games which came in their most recent game in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Prior to that the Clippers had lost three straight road contests. Both teams have plenty to play for here as Indiana is fighting for home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Clippers are fighting just to get in. But in the end, Indiana is 24-13 SU at home and has several matchup advantages over the Clippers that should lead to a double digit win here. |
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03-22-18 | 76ers -8 v. Magic | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Obviously we are laying a premium price here but it's still the only way to bet this game. Orlando is fighting for the #1 pick in the draft while the Sixers are fighting for the 4th spot in the East which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Magic are 21-50 and just two games "behind" Memphis and Phoenix for the worst overall record in the NBA. Orlando has lost 7 of their last eight games, including two straight at home by 9 to the short-handed Celtics, and by 7 to the Raptors. Philly has won 4 straight games with three of the four coming by 8 or more points. Orlando has the 8th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -4.7PPG. Conversely, the 76ers have the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at plus +2.6PPG. In the two meetings earlier this season the 76ers won by 11 and 19. Effort will be the difference in this game and it will lead to a double digit win by the visitor. Take Philadelphia! |
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03-19-18 | Hornets v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - Several teams can't afford to relax these days and one of them is the 76ers. Philadelphia is in a tightly contested five-way battle for the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, where just 3 1/2 games separate the current third-place Cleveland Cavaliers from the eighth-place Miami Heat. Of course the big reward is home court advantage if they can finish 4th or higher. This is clearly a bad match-up for the Hornets as they've lost to the Sixers twice this season by double-digits in both games. Charlotte is clearly a team that has cashed it in this season evidenced by their box scores where they are giving extended minutes to bench players. The Hornets have just two wins in their last nine games (3 covers) and those came against the Hawks and Suns who are two of the worst teams in the NBA. Philly is coming off a close win over Brooklyn which serve as a wake-up call for tonight. The 76ers have an average home point differential of +6.3PPG this season. Charlotte allows teams to hit 48% of their field goal attempts on the road this year while Philly shoots 47% at home. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS their last nine at home versus teams with losing records and while we know we are laying a premium number here, we still feel it won't matter. Take the 76ers! |
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03-08-18 | Nets v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-6.5) over Brooklyn Nets, Thurs 7PM ET - The scheduling clearly favors the home team here as Brooklyn is playing their 5th straight road game, three of which were just on the West Coast with the most recent coming against the Warriors. Now just 2 days later they are back on the East Coast to face the Hornets. Charlotte meanwhile is off 4 straight losses after winning five straight. The Hornets recent losing streak though comes against a few of the best teams in the East (76ers twice, Celtics and Raptors) which the Nets are not. Charlotte sits 6 games out of the 8th and final spot in the East and have to make a run starting tonight to have a shot at the post season. Brooklyn on the other hand is in the ‘tankathon’ with the rest of the bottom-feeders in the East as they jockey for the best Lottery position. Charlotte has beaten three similar teams to the Nets at home (prior to the loss to the Sixers) by 15, 16 and 15 over this same Nets team. The Hornets are 5-2 SU their last seven at home and the two losses came to Philly and Toronto. Brooklyn has the 8th worst average road point differential of minus 6PPG. Charlotte is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season when coming off a home loss. Those four wins came by an average of 11PPG. Lay the points with the home team here! |
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03-07-18 | Cavs +3 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3) over Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET - If you haven’t figured LeBron out yet then we’ll give you the abbreviated version. When motivated he can be absolutely incredible. One of the best athletes to ever play in the NBA along with Shag and Wilt. The downside is that he lacks the mental fortitude to ever be considered the GOAT and lacks the killer instinct the true greats had. But for our wager today we expect to have an engaged LeBron which is a good thing. The Cavs just lost at home to the Nuggets where LBJ scored 25 points, grabbed 10 boards and dished out 15 assists. Denver shot a ridiculous 19 of 35 from deep or 54% from beyond the arc which was drastically better than their 36.6% on the season. Since the monster trade the Cavs have been better defensively so expect a concentrated effort on that end of the floor this evening. Cleveland is 15-15 SU on the road this year and one of only 9 teams in the NBA with a positive road point differential. Denver just 4-8 ATS this season when playing without rest, 1-4 SU/ATS when playing without rest at home dating back to 2015. Cavs on 80% or 8-2 spread run as a road dog this season. Take Cleveland here. |
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02-23-18 | Mavs v. Lakers -4 | Top | 102-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:30PM ET - We like the Lakers here by double-digits over the visiting Mavericks. Dallas has a huge black cloud over their franchise with Mark Cuban's recent comments about tanking and issues in the front office with a rumored bad work environment for women. Now we know this shouldn't effect play on the court but it certainly is a distraction for coaches and players. The Lakers on the other hand have some positives working for them with the return of Lonzo Ball and the new addition of Isaiah Thomas. This is also a quick revenge game for LA as they were recently beaten in Dallas by 7-points as a 3-point dog. The Lakers have lost 3 straight but all three were on the road. Now the Lakers are back home were they just beat OKC by 25 and Phoenix by 19. The Mavs are just 7-21 SU on the road this season, 1-7 SU their last eight with four of those losses coming by 7 or more points. The Mavs have the 8th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Lakers 8-0 ATS home streak gets stretched to 8 after tonight. |
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02-14-18 | Clippers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 129-119 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -4.5 over LA Clippers, 8PM ET – We love this situation with Boston coming off not one, but two home losses with the most recent being a blowout on National TV. They will rebound here with a max effort prior to the All-Star Break. Boston was just crushed at home by their rivals the Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points which is significant as they are 4-0 SU & ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season. The Celts are 21-10 SU at home with an average differential of +4.5PPG which is 11th best in the NBA. The difference here is defense as these two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but defensively the Celtics are far superior with the best DEFF in the NBA while the Clippers are 15th. L.A. has a losing road record and an average differential of -1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. The Clippers have also played an ‘average’ road schedule and now step up against one of the best teams in the league, in a bad mood. In their last three road games the Clippers got a big win over the Pistons and their former teammate Blake Griffin, then lost at Philly by 14 as a 5-point dog, then won at Brooklyn by 13. Great spot to play on a motivated ‘A’ level team off a loss against a ‘B’ level team off a road win. Lay the points! |
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02-11-18 | Jazz +3 v. Blazers | Top | 115-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+3) over Portland Trailblazers, 9PM ET – Two hot teams square off tonight and the bet here is on the underdog. While the Blazers have won 9 of their last fourteen games it’s not as impressive as you might think. Of those nine wins only two came against good teams, Minnesota and Indiana. Utah on the other hand has won 8 straight and has some solid wins at New Orleans, at San Antonio, home against Golden State and at Toronto. Portland is 16-10 SU at home this year, but their home point differential is 16th in the NBA (average) at +2.5PPG. On the year the Jazz have an average point differential of -3.2PPG but they’ve had a ton of injuries early in the season. Portland was recently a home favorite of 3-points against Charlotte who isn’t nearly as good as this Jazz team. Utah has covered 6 in a row on the road against teams with winning home records and don’t be surprised when they win this game outright. |
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02-10-18 | Wizards -6 v. Bulls | Top | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #507 Washington Wizards (-6) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - This is a great spot to play on a good team off a couple losses (Washington) versus a bad team off an upset win as a dog (Chicago). Washington has won 5 straight games prior to a pair of losses to the Celtics and 76ers in their most recent two games. Included in that 5 game run the Wiz had road victories by 9 over Indiana, 17 over Orlando and 25 over Atlanta. The Bulls are very comparable to those three teams (worse than Indiana). Prior to last night's upset win over the T'Wolves, the Bulls had lost 7 in a row overall, and 3 in a row at home. Chicago has the 6th worst home point differential in the NBA at home this year and a negative differential of -9PPG their last five. Bulls just 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) when playing without rest this season and are forced to sit Zach Lavine tonight on the second day of a back to back.The Wiz have covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings. |
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02-09-18 | Hornets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #816 Utah Jazz (-6) over Charlotte Hornets, 9PM ET – We’ve faded the Hornets two games in a row successfully and will play against them here too. Charlotte is in a tough scheduling situation as they played in Denver (higher altitude) on Monday, Portland last night which was OT and are now back in the thin air of Utah tonight. Not too mention, the Jazz are RED HOT right now having won 7 straight games and five of those wins came against current playoff caliber teams. Yes, the Jazz just traded away Rodney Hood but he was coming off the bench and it’s not like they lose a starter. Utah has found a rhythm offensively as they’ve put up 120 or more in 4 of their last five games and their two most recent wins came by 30 over the Warriors and 12 versus the Clippers. Three Hornets starters logged 39+ minutes last night so fatigue will certainly be a factor tonight for Charlotte. Charlotte is just 3-6 SU and ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this season. Utah is also playing with revenge as they recently lost in Charlotte. Utah has a +19.8PPG differential in their last five games which is the best number in the NBA over that 5-game span. It all adds up to a double-digit win by Utah tonight. Easy call here. |
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02-06-18 | Bucks v. Knicks +1.5 | Top | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #506 NY KNICKS (+1.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35PM ET - There is some tremendous value in this number as these same two teams just met a few nights ago in Milwaukee where the Bucks were favored by -4.5 points. The natural swing here should have the Knicks as a 4-point home favorite yet they are tabbed the dog here. The Knicks lost in Milwaukee by 2 points in a game they executed poorly down the stretch and should have won that game outright. They then came home and suffered a 'hangover' loss to the Hawks. New York is 16-10 SU at home and have the 10th best home differential in the NBA at +4.9PPG. The Bucks have played well since the firing of head coach Jason Kidd and are off a road win over Brooklyn. Milwaukee lost backup PG Dellavedova to an injury in that game and Giannis Antetokounmpo twisted his ankle for the second time in the past five games. The Greek Freak is expected to play tonight but certainly won't be 100%. NY has covered 5 straight when coming off a ATS loss, while Bucks just 2-6 ATS their last eight on the road off a win. Take the Knicks with revenge. |
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02-05-18 | Hornets v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 104-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
ASA #710 Denver Nuggets -5.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 10PM ET - We don't have a problem laying points with a Denver team at home, facing an un-rested Hornets team . Granted, the Hornets have won 3 straight and 6 of their last ten but look at who those wins have come against (Phoenix, Indiana at home and at Atlanta). In other words we're really not impressed with Charlotte's current 'success' if you want to call it that. Denver on the other hand is 5 -2 SU their last seven games which included impressive wins over Portland, OKC and Golden State. The Nuggets two losses came against the Spurs and Celtics. Denver is 21-7 SU at home this season with an average differential of plus +6.1PPG. Charlotte is just 3-5 SU when playing the second day of a back to back and are stuck in the higher altitude of Denver which is a problem when playing without rest. Denver gets a double-digit home win here. |
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01-23-18 | Celtics -5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #509 Boston Celtics (-5) over LA Lakers, 10:35PM ET - Geez, I'm surprised that the Lakers are on national TV again? It's stunning to think that a team with a 26-56 record from last season and is 17-29 this year would get so much national attention. It's obvious that Lonzo Ball is going to be a nice player in the NBA but he's not destined for greatness and the over-hype has run its course in my opinion. But I am happy to watch Brad Stevenson's Celtics with Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum. The Celts have lost three straight games with most recent being an embarrassing home loss to the Magic so expect a big effort here. Prior to the 3-game slide the C's had won 7 straight games and 5 of their last six on the road. The Lakers were on a 9-game losing streak from late December through early January before winning 4 in a row, losing 2, then winning two. Looking at the Lakers current six wins we find 3 came against, arguably, the three worst teams in the league and four of the six were against teams with losing records. Now they face the best team in the East who is motivated after three straight losses. There are only 9 teams in the NBA that have a negative point differential at home and L.A. is one of them. Celtics road differential of +4.1PPG is 4th best in the league. Lay the short number here with Boston! |
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01-19-18 | Heat -2.5 v. Nets | Top | 95-101 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #803 Miami Heat -2.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:35PM ET - The Heat have quietly made a run in the East and currently sit atop of the Southeast Division ahead of the Wizards. Miami suffered a beat down at home by the Nets back on December 29th and then ripped off seven straight wins, lost at Chicago and then beat Milwaukee. The Heats stats from their last five games are impressive as they have the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.024 points per possession. In that same five game span the Nets are allowing 1.109PPP which is 21st in the NBA and worse than their season averages. The Heat have been better offensively too, averaging 1.074 points per possession which is up from their season numbers of 1.062PPP. Brooklyn's OEFF ratings are the 4th worst in the NBA on the season and in their last five games. The Nets have an average differential of -2.5 PPG at home this season which is the 5th worst number in the league. Miami is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite in this price range this season while the Nets are 1-3 ATS as a dog in this same price. After the horrible home beating the Heat suffered to the Nets less than a month ago they'll be prepared here and set for payback. Miami has covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings. Lay it. |
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01-05-18 | Raptors v. Bucks +1 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: 808 Milwaukee Bucks (+1) over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Revenge angles only work in the NBA if the circumstances are right and it works tonight with the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost in Toronto on Monday 127-131 in OT in a very tight battle from start to finish. In this quick turnaround setting we like the Bucks to get a little payback here. Milwaukee has better overall offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games compared to the Raptors and a better point differential. The Bucks are shooting over 50% their last five contests compared to the Raptors 44%. They are also allowing an average of 5-less points per game their last five too compared to Toronto. The Raps have a solid road record this season of 12-9 SU but they only have one quality win over the Rockets and nine of those W's came against teams with losing records. The Bucks are 13-6 SU at home this year, 4-1 SU their last five. The Bucks come to play tonight and get a big home win! |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +5 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
ASA play on: #504 New York Knicks (+5) over San Antonio Spurs, 7:35PM ET - The value in this line is obvious as the Knicks just played in San Antonio a few nights ago and were plus 10.5 points and now are home getting +5.5 points. That's not a normal swing in points and is clearly an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Spurs home/road dichotomies are drastically different and they aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. San Antonio's road point differential if -2.1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. They have the second worst offensive efficiency ratings on the road but 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers. That disparity is a large reason why they are just 3-8 ATS on the road as a favorite this season. The Knicks have been good at home this year with a 15-6 SU record and a home point differential of +6.3PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. New York has a top 10 OEFF ratings and a top 14 DEFF ratings in the Garden. Normally I'd be remiss to play against the Spurs off a loss but the facts are they have a 2-3 ATS record on the road in that role. The Knicks are 8-3-1 ATS as a home pooch this season. Grab the points! |
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12-28-17 | Wolves v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #506 Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Bucks here as the Wolves coming into this game off an OT win last night against Denver making this the second night of a back to back, not to mention the 3rd in four nights. Milwaukee comes into this game having lost two straight games, the most recent a home loss to the Bulls. Last night the Timberwolves starters all played 30+ minutes and three of the five (Butler, Wiggins and Gibson) all played 40 plus. That makes tonight's game so tough for them as their depth has been a concern all season long. Minnesota's bench averages just 13 minutes per game which is last in the NBA and their offensive/defensive efficiency stats are in the bottom four of the NBA in both categories. Milwaukee has lost two home games to the Bulls in the past two weeks but have won 6 other home games which included a 'W' over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bucks have covered 6 of the last seven meetings and will get a solid home win tonight over a tired Wolves team. Lay it. |
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12-22-17 | Hawks +10.5 v. Thunder | Top | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Atlanta Hawks +11.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET - Yeah, I know it's hard to bet 'ugly' teams like the Hawks but the value here is clearly on their side. OKC is being asked by the oddsmakers to cover a hefty number here, especially considering they haven't been a double-digit chalk since mid-November. The Thunder also have two much bigger games on deck at Utah and then a Christmas Day showdown with the Rockets, so they may get caught looking past the lowly Hawks. OKC has the 7th best home point differential in the NBA at +7.3PPG but that's not enough to get a cover here. Atlanta is just 2-11 SU their last 13 road games but NONE of those losses have been by more than tonight's point spread. In fact, only 2 of the Hawks road losses have come by 12 or more points all season long. On the season the Hawks road differential is -5.8PPG, less than tonight's number. In their last five games these teams are nearly identical in terms of offensive efficiency ratings so Atlanta can score with the Thunder. Grab the points with Atlanta! |
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12-20-17 | Magic v. Bulls -5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #714 CHICAGO BULLS (-5) over Orlando Magic, 8PM ET - We could make a case that nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Bulls right now and there aren't many teams playing worse than the Magic. Chicago has ripped off 6 straight wins which included victories over the 26-7 Celtics, 76ers and East contenders Milwaukee Bucks. Chicago's average point differential in their last five games is +7.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. During that same 5-game stretch the Bulls have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating and the 11th best OEFF. Both of those numbers are DRASTICALLY better than their season averages which is what the point spread is based on. Conversely, the Orlando Magic are really struggling after a pretty good start. Orlando has lost 5 straight games and in those contests their average point differential was -8.6PPG which is 29th worst in the NBA. The Magic are just 1-10 SU their last eleven road games and their road point differential of -3.4PPG on the season is in the bottom half of the league. It looks like Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon will be out for the Magic tonight which is just too much to overcome against the red hot Bulls. Lay the points. |
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12-08-17 | Cavs v. Pacers +5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #504 Indiana Pacers (+5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - When these two teams last met in Cleveland on Nov 1 the Cavs were a 10-point favorite and lost 107-124. The natural swing of the line should make the Cavs favored here but not by this many points. The inflation of the number of course has to do with the Cavs current 13 game winning streak. But did you know that in that stretch of game the Cavs are just 6-7 ATS AND they've only played two teams with winning record. In fact, the combined records of the eleven losing teams the Cavs have beaten in this run is 89-172 so it's really not as impressive as you might think. Cleveland continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers which is evident in their 3-16-1 ATS record as a favorite this season. Indiana has been a pleasant surprise this year at 14-11 SU, 8-4 at home. They've beaten the Raptors, Pistons and Spurs at home already this season so they can certainly beat this Cavs team. Indiana has covered 12 of the last 16 meetings with Cavaliers and will get it done tonight. |
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12-01-17 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
We will play ON #715 New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) over @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET. If you were a casual bettor and you looked at tonight's game you'd probably bet the home team here that has won 4 straight games and that's GETTING points. Utah's 9-4 SU home record is a little deceiving as only 4 of those wins came over teams with winning records. In their most recent four game winning streak they beat an awful Bulls team, good Bucks and Nuggets teams and a beat up, declining Clippers team. We really love the fact the Pelicans are coming off an awful loss at home to the Wolves where Anthony Davis was ejected. Prior to that game the Pelicans had 3 days off so they'll be rested and ready here. Utah doesn't have the depth on the interior to match Boogie Cousins and Davis with Rudy Gobert on the shelf so points in the paint will be easy to come by for New Orleans. The Pelicans have covered 7 of eleven road games this year and will get a much need W in Utah tonight. |
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11-25-17 | Spurs v. Hornets | Top | 106-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - The Bugs are coming off a very tough loss last night to the Cavaliers by a point and this marks their 3rd game in four nights, second of a back to back. San Antonio meanwhile is rested AND coming off a loss so expect a bounce back here. As you would expect the Spurs have a decisive advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency unit and the overall efficiency differential. The Spurs have been dealing with a multitude of injuries this season but are now starting to get healthy sans Kawhi Leonard. We expect a Hornets team to have a hard time getting back up tonight to play another A level team after last night's road loss. Charlotte is just 15-20-1 ATS since 2015 when playing without rest. Play on San Antonio. |
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11-17-17 | Knicks +8 v. Raptors | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: New York Knicks (+8) over Toronto Raptors, 7:35PM ET - If you haven't noticed this Knicks team is much better than the past few editions and we like them as a dog here against the Raptors. Toronto is solid 3-game road trip with a pair of wins over Houston and New Orleans, face New York tonight and have Washington up next. Don't be surprised if the Raptors overlook Knicks here as they've beaten them 7 straight times. New York made some changes in the offseason and it's paying off. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games, and 7 of ten. Last season in two meetings on this floor the Raptors were favored by 7.5 and 10-points respectively. Tonight they are laying 8-points to the improved Knicks. Last year the Knicks finished the season with an overall offensive efficiency rating of 107.8 and a defensive efficiency rating of 111.6 (difference of -3.8). This year those numbers have improved to 110.2 (OEFF) and 108.7 (DEFF) for a difference of +1.5. So a better team is getting the same value here tonight. New York's improved field goal percentage defense will be the difference here. Grab the points! |
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11-15-17 | Magic +5 v. Blazers | Top | 94-99 | Push | 0 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
We like the Orlando Magic (+5) over the Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - These two teams have some similar season numbers in regards to efficiency ratings with the one exception being the Blazers advantage in defensive efficiency. But we temper those numbers considering the Blazers have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NBA. Portland had the 24th worst defensive efficiency rating a year ago but are 3rd this year, which again is very misleading based on the schedule. Orlando is a top 10 team in terms of overall efficiency differentials and have played an 'average' schedule giving us a true indicator of where they stand. In their last five road games the Magic are 3-2 SU with two solid wins over Memphis and New Orleans. They lost most recently in Denver on the second night of a back to back and in Golden State. We like them to bounce back here against Portland who is 5-4 SU at home but only two of those wins came against teams with current winning records. The Blazers have a home point differential of just +2.4PPG while the Magic are 1 of just twelve teams in the league with a positive road differential (+1.9PPG). The number on this game is simply too high and we won't be surprised when Orlando wins outright. |
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11-14-17 | Raptors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors (+6.5) over Houston Rockets, 8PM ET - We like the points here with a good Raptors team coming off a loss against a Rockets team laying an inflated number. First off, the Rockets have won 6 straight but the wins aren't that impressive (Knicks, Hawks, Jazz, Cavs, Grizzlies and Pacers) who are a combined 12 games under .500. Now they step up against a Raptors team that is every bit as talented and motivated off a loss. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency but the Rockets surprisingly are better in defensive efficiency ratings. The Raptors were 11th in DEFF a season ago and will trend back to those numbers as the season goes on. Toronto was one of just six teams in the entire NBA a year ago to have a positive road point differential, so this veteran team is certainly capable of winning anywhere in the NBA. The Raptors are a contender in the East and are getting too many points here considering the Rockets were just minus -6.5 points against the Jazz and minus -5.5 points against the Cavs who are not playing as well as Toronto right now (similar in OEFF but drastic difference in DEFF). The Raptors were plus +2.5 points less than a month ago in San Antonio. Against the better teams in the league the Raptors have road results of: -4 points @ San Antonio, -5 points at Golden State, -1 point at Boston. Easy call here with the value and Toronto Raptors. |
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11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
We will PLAY ON the Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) over the Utah Jazz. We feel this is a short enough number to lay on the road with the Wolves who are coming off two straight road losses and will look to bounce back here. Minnesota hasn't played great overall defense this year but are trending in the right direction. They held three straight foes to under 100 points before playing the fast paced Suns and high scoring Warriors. Tonight they face a Utah Jazz team really struggling with their shooting. The Jazz have shot just 43.1% on the year which is 27th in the NBA. In their last five games they've hit less than 40% of their field goal attempts and have averaged just 99PPG. What makes matters worse for the Jazz is that they recently lost Rudy Gobert to a knee injury which takes away one of the league's best defensive centers. Utah has lost 3 of their last four home games with the lone win coming their last time out against the Nets who are again one of the league's worst teams. Minnesota has won 3 of their last six road games (Pelicans, Heat and Thunder) and all three were over better teams than tonight's Jazz team. Based on trending efficiency numbers we like the Wolves to get a 10-point win here. |
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11-10-17 | Magic -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
We will play on the Orlando Magic (-3.5) over the Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - It seems strange to be laying points on the road with the Magic but it's absolutely warranted here. Orlando has some very good metrics this season that may surprise a lot of casual bettors. The Magic are 9th in overall efficiency differential at +3.6 in the NBA while the Suns are dead last at -9.7. Orlando is in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency ratings, compared to the Suns who are bottom 5. The Magic are a top 5 offensive efficiency team, Phoenix is in the bottom 3. You can see for yourself these two teams are further apart based on efficiency differentials than the actual pointspread is tonight. Orlando is already 3-2 SU on the road this season and the three wins have come over much better teams than the Suns tonight (Grizzlies, Pelicans and Cavaliers). Phoenix has lost 4 straight games, 3 of which were by double-digits and two were home games against the Nets and Heat. Orlando is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 49% while the Suns struggle to shoot at just 43% and that will be a big factor in tonight's outcome. The Magic have covered 5 of the last six meetings against the Suns. Lay the points with Orlando. |
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11-06-17 | Heat +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 80-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
PLAY ON: MIAMI HEAT - We will grab the points with the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat are off a road win yesterday against the Clippers and will be playing without rest here, but the Warriors aren't in the best scheduling situation either. Golden State is off a 3-game road trip with their last game coming in the higher attitude of Denver AND they have a big TV game on deck versus the Wolves. Miami was 18-23 SU on the road last year and had the 10th best road differential in the league (tied with the Cavaliers) at minus -1.8PPG. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA a season ago at +15.9PPG but they are just 2-2 SU at home this year, 0-4 ATS. Miami can contend here because they defend the 3-point line (4th in league a year ago) as good as anyone in the NBA. Last season the Warriors won their home game against the Heat by 12 and Miami beat them in South Beach. The Heat were 10-4 ATS last year as a road dog of 7+ points. Grab the points with Miami. |
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10-30-17 | Warriors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 141-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-) over LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - We will lay the points with the Golden State Warriors over the LA Clippers. I like the Clippers to be better than most experts are predicting but they aren't one of the best teams in the NBA either. Sure, they've gotten off to a 4-1 SU start without Chris Paul but they've also played Phoenix and the Lakers, two of the worst teams a year ago. The Warriors are just 4-3 SU on the season and coming off a home loss to the Pistons. Golden State has faced four playoff teams from a year ago and a much improved Pelicans team. Golden State is 15-3 SU off a loss their last eighteen games and are laying a marginal number here on the road considering their road point differential from a year ago was +7.4PPG (best in NBA). Golden State was 31-10 SU away in the regular season a year ago and is on a 38-11 SU streak as a road chalk. The Clippers aren't home dogs very often, just 7 times last year, but they were just 2-5 SU, 3-4ATS in that role. The clincher here is the dominance of the Warriors over the Clippers in recent years with a 10-0 SU record, which includes 4-0 last year with all 4 wins coming by double digits. The two games played on this court were 13 and 17 point margins in favor of Golden State. Lay the points on the road with GST. |
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10-20-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Play on: Boston Celtics (+2) over @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a 'L' last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don't have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We are going to play on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Game 5. Before the series started we predicted a Warriors sweep or win in 5 games and we'll stick with that thought process. The first two games were dominated by the Warriors at home with a total differential of plus + 41 points. Just because the Cavs won the last game in this series doesn't mean they've suddenly turned their 'defensive ship' around and can stop the Warriors here. GST had a +15.0 point differential at home during the regular season and are averaging +17.9PPG at home in the playoffs. Cleveland is allowing 1.11 points per possession in the Playoffs after allowing 1.104PPP during the regular season. In case you don't remember this from previous posts, that defensive efficiency rating of 1.104PPP ranked them in the bottom third of the NBA this season. I'm not going to be fooled by the Cavs win in the previous game as the stars aligned perfectly for them and they made shots (at home) and benefitted from 22 free throw attempts in the first quarter. FYI - the league record for most attempts in a quarter in NBA HISTORY is 32. Back at home the Warriors will shoot better as they averaged 50% shooting on their home court and allowed opponents to hit just 43%. Golden State perfect 7-0 SU at home off a loss this year and bounce back here to end the series. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
We will play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at home over Golden State in Game 3 Wednesday, 8PM ET. The Warriors were obviously very good to us in the first two games of this series and we do have Golden State as our series bet but if there is one game the Cavs will win it's this one. Here's what we saw in our break down of Game 2. As the game wore on the Cavs started grabbing and holding the Warriors more and more, especially Steph Curry, and the officials swallowed their whistles. Last year, the Cavs big turning point is the series was when Dellavedova employed his 'mugging' mentality against Curry and held him to 22PPG in the Finals. On Wednesday night we expect Curry to essentially get assaulted by Cleveland and doubt the officials are going to call much. When you are watching the game pay close attention to the Warrior players OFF the ball and you'll see what I'm talking about. Yes, the Warriors were a fantastic road team this year with a 37-10 SU record, but the Cavs were 36-11 SU at home and are off two humiliating losses. Last year in a similar setting the Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 as a -1.5 point favorite. Based on the season long numbers the Cavs shouldn't be this big of an underdog here given these circumstances. In the past two season's the Cavs have produced a 25-5 SU (83%) record when playing at home and off a loss in their previous game. Cleveland has been the most efficient offense in the playoffs at home this season by averaging 1.213 points per possession and they have a home differential of +8.3PPG. LeBron will get every call imaginable tonight and the Cavs steal a game in the series. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 2 Sun, 8 ET - We will play ON the Golden State Warriors again minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2. This is going to sound eerily like our first writeup but our base analysis remains the same. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs, they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas. Defensively there is no comparison between these two teams, which was very apparent in Game 1, as the Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season, allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. The Cavs defense was thoroughly exposed in Game 1 and they can’t just ‘flip a switch’ and be great defensively in the playoffs. It just doesn’t work that way. Also, don't be fooled into thinking the Cavs are a great bet here getting points as they were just 5-1 1 as a dog this season. When coming off a loss this year the Cavs are also just a 50/50 proposition with an 8-8 SU record. Looking at the shot chart from Game 1 we see the outcome of that game could have been much worse as the Warriors missed 20-point point-blank shots in the lane and 30 overall for the game. When LeBron and the Cavs organization assembled this roster, they should have considered some defensive minded players. In last year’s Finals the Warriors won Game 1 big then came back and blew the Cavs out by 33 in Game 2. With an average point differential of plus +16.5PPG at home this year we like the Warriors chances to get another double digit win in Game 2. Lay the points. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) over the Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the last meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. The Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and held Boston to just 91 points. In Game 1 the Cavaliers dominated the Celtics and the final score was misleading as Cleveland lead by as many as 28-points in the game. What stands out is how “poorly” the Cavs shot from beyond the arc as they hit “just” 38.8% from 3. In the post season, they are shooting just under 43% from the 3-point line. Boston had decent numbers in Game 1 and were still blown out by this Cavs team that is on a mission. Cleveland is 9-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +17-point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. If there was a game Boston was going to win this series it’s this one but we’re not about to go against this Cleveland team right now. |
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05-17-17 | Cavs -4 v. Celtics | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
We will play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 over the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. Boston is coming off that grueling 7-game series with Washington and have just 1-day rest. Cleveland meanwhile has been off since May 7th and comes into this game fresh. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the most recent meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. I went back and watched that game and what stood out to me, is how the Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and how they held Boston to just 91 points. There are some bad matchups in this game for the Celtics and the Cavs have had a ton of time to figure out the best way to exploit those advantages. Cleveland is 8-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +14.9 point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. Given the circumstances we will lay the points with Cleveland on the road here. We will play OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Golden State -9.5 over San Antonio, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET We like a focused, rested and motivated Warriors team to get a big home win to open this series. Let's face it the Warriors haven't been tested but will be here so we'll get a max effort. Golden State had a home average point differential of +15.9PPG at home this year which was the best number in the NBA. In the playoffs at home that differential is +16PPG. They have won 7 of their 8 playoff games thus far by at least 10 points. Granted, the Spurs are better than the teams they've faced but San Antonio is coming off two very hard fought series against Memphis and Houston and are without Parker and a less than 100% Leonard. Golden State on the other hand is rested and ready to make a statement in game 1. The regular season meetings really don't tell us much as both teams rested players but the current situation clearly favors Golden State. Surprisingly, since the start of the 2015 season, 7 of the 9 meetings between these 2 have been decided by at least 10 points. We call for Golden State to keep that trend alive today. This line may seem high but is it? Just a few days ago San Antonio was an 8.5 point underdog @ Houston in Game 6. Now laying just one point more with the Warriors in a much better situation is hardly too many points. Lay in in Sunday with Golden State. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on the Houston Rockets (-5) over San Antonio Spurs, Game 3 Friday, 9:30PM ET. We successfully played on the Spurs in Game 2 but will flip side here with a wager on the Rockets at home. Houston played well for three quarters in the previous meeting and entered the 4th quarter down just 5-points. But unfortunately for them, the Spurs outscored them 33-13 in the 4th. San Antonio was in a must win situation at home and off and embarrassing loss so it was expected they play well in Game 2. The Spurs shot nearly 55% from the field but we doubt they can repeat that performance on the road tonight. In their 3 road games against an average Memphis team, they averaged 45% shooting from the field and went 1-2 SU. Now they travel to Houston to face a Rockets team off a poor overall showing where James Harden managed just 13-points. The Rockets have won 10 of their last twelve home games and were a perfect 3-0 SU against the Thunder in the opening round. Houston was 30-11 SU at home this year with the second best average home differential of +8.9PPG and they won 7 of nine at home when off a SU loss. Tony Parker of the Spurs was playing EXTREMELY well in the post-season and his loss will affect the team’s regular rotation. Houston gets a double-digit win here. Lay it! |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Play on Washington Wizards (-5) over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET - The Wiz are obviously down 0-2 in the series and backed into a corner here. Washington has played really well in stretches against the Celtics in the first two games, but unfortunately for them they couldn't sustain it for four quarters. Now back at home, where they were 30-11 SU with an average point differential of +4.9PPG, they'll get the added energy from their home crowd to finish quarters. The home team has won and covered all six meeting this season between these two teams and there's no reason to think that will change here. Not to mention, the Wizard are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Boston has shot the lights out the first two games of this series by making over 51% of their field goal attempts and a combined 32 three-pointers. On the season the C's have averaged 45% shooting when playing on the road so don't expect them to continue on their torrid shooting streak in Washington. The value on this game is not what it should be and we know we are laying a premium price but it's warranted here in this situation. Take the Wizard minus the points. |