#127 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -2 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Buffalo last week and they were embarrassed at Chicago to the tune of 38-0.  They decided on game day they would sit all of their starters which was a surprise to us.  The Bears played their starters and buried Buffalo.  The Bills head coach McDermott was obviously not happy after the performance.  “That wasn’t up to our standard, what we expect,” McDermott said. “We have a lot of work to do. It wasn’t up to our standard, that's very clear. It doesn't matter who's out there — ones, twos, threes, fours, whoever it is — we expect them to perform and we expect our level of performance to be much better than that.”  We expect a much better performance as they look for at least 1 win in the preseason for some momentum (Buffalo is 0-2).  Tampa is on the opposite end with a 2-0 preseason record.  QB Mayfield is banged up and he will most likely sit again leaving the QB duties up to Bazelak, newly signed Bridgewater, and Trask.  Last week the Bucs topped Pittsburgh 17-14 but they were outplayed drastically in the stats.  The Steelers average 5.4 YPP to just 3.8 for TB and on the ground the disparity was even more pronounced at 5.0 YPC (for Steelers) and just 1.7 YPC for the Bucs.  We expect the Bills to play with much more urgency this week after their embarrassing effort last week while Tampa, with 2 wins already, will be looking to just get to the regular season.  Lay the small number with Buffalo.

#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 37.5 Points – Minnesota Vikings vs Tennessee Titans, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’ve been on the Vikings Under in both preseason games and cashed on both. We’ll ride it again in their preseason finale @ Tennessee. As we stated in both of the earlier write ups, Minnesota’s defense is far ahead of their offense right now. They’ve allowed a total of 30 points in their 2 games after giving up just 12.6 PPG in last year’s preseason. They held the Patriots to 20 points on just 4.5 YPP last week after New England put up 48 points in week 1 vs Washington. The problem has been the offense that has scored 32 points in 2 games thus far. QB McCarthy didn’t play last week but may play a bit this week. He’s basically a rookie after losing his first year due to an injury. We’re not enamored with Minnesota’s QB rotation of Brosmer, Rypien and Howell who have combined to throw 1 TD and 2 interceptions thus far in the preseason. Tennessee’s offense is still learning on the fly with a new head coach and OC to go along with a rookie QB Ward under center. They’ve scored 30 total points in 2 games and 7 of those points came from the defense on a pick 6. So the offense has put up 23 points on barely 500 yards of total offense in 2 contests. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen and will struggle to score. The Titan defense struggled a bit in week 1 vs Tampa Bay but looked much better last week holding Atlanta to 4.5 YPP. Defensive battle here and we’ll grab the Under.

ASA NFLx play on UNDER 36.5 Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers, 7PM ET - We are not expecting many points to be scored in this game with conservative play calling with the starters for both offenses sitting on the sidelines. The Panthers have scored only 13 points across two preseason games and managed just 164 total yards in their last outing against the Texans. The Steelers had a great offensive showing in their first preseason game but then managed just 14-points against the Buccaneers last week. Coach Tomlin has seen enough out of QB Skyler Thompson in two games so expect a heavy snap count for recently signed Logan Woodside, with Mason Rudolph expected to sit this game out. Both teams are resting their starting quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh, Bryce Young for Carolina) and most key offensive players. Carolina will throw Jack Plummer and Bryce Perkins to the wolves in this game and see who can emerge as the 3rd string QB for the Panthers. Granted, defensive scores are a concern with unproved quarterbacking, but we expect a very vanilla game plan by both coaches in this final preseason game. The bet here is UNDER!

#429 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +2.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Bills are off a 34-25 loss last week vs the NY Giants but they played much better than the result. The Buffalo offense put up over 7.0 YPP and outgained the Giants by nearly 2.0 YPP in that loss. They put up those offensive numbers with QB Allen and RB Cook out of the line up but we expect both to play some this week. When Allen exits, we like Buffalo’s QB rotation with Trubisky, White, and Buechele. Trubisky & White have plenty of NFL experience combining to throw for over 14,000 yards and 83 TD’s. Head coach Sean McDermott has shown he does take the preseason seriously (15-10 ATS record) and he’s done well as an NFLX dog with a 4-2 ATS record in that spot since the start of the 2021 season. His teams are also 3-0 SU in the preseason when coming off a loss during that time frame. The Bears will play QB Caleb Williams in this one, however he’s been struggling to pick up on new head coach Ben Johnson’s offense in camp. When Williams takes a seat, the Chicago QB room will be without veteran Case Keenum who is out here with an injury after throwing for 2 TD’s in last week 24-24 tie vs Miami. These 2 teams have had combined practices this week and Chicago’s offensive line has had big time problems, especially at LT, with Buffalo’s defensive front. In that tie, the Bears offense averaged only 4.5 YPP. Buffalo is the deeper team which should give us an edge in the 2nd half. They’ve also had an extra day off, so to speak, after playing last Saturday while Chicago played on Sunday. We’ll take the better team, off a loss, getting points.

ASA NFLx play on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 -125 vs Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - The Eagles hold a decisive advantage over the Browns in one key area heading into Saturday and that’s the QB position. Cleveland’s quarterback situation is a disaster, making matters worse is rookie QB Sanders (played well last week) has an oblique injury and may not play. In fact, there is talk Tyler Huntley may play the entire game against Philly. The Eagles’ offense is in the capable hands of QB Tanner McKee. McKee was an efficient 20/25 for 252 yards, 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s last week against the Bengals. Thompson-Robinson relieved McKee and was 5/8 for 56-yards. Philadelphia’s defensive front, bolstered by rookies Carter and Smith, will likely disrupt Huntley and limit the Browns’ run-heavy approach. The Eagles averaged 6.08 yards per play last week and should have success again this week against a Browns D that allowed 5.6YPPL a year ago (23rd most). Philadelphia’s depth will come through in this one and lead the Eagles to a TD+ win.

ASAwins NFLx play on Atlanta Falcons +4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, Friday 7PM ET - We like the Falcons to cover the +5.5 spread against the Tennessee Titans in their preseason Week 2 matchup, for a few key reasons. The Falcons’ defense looked good in their opener against the Lions, with rookie edge James Pearce Jr. and veteran Arnold Ebiketie generating pressure on Detroit’s QB’s, which was sorely lacking a year ago. This pass rush could exploit the Titans’ offensive line, and a rookie QB, which struggled in their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. Tennessee managed just 201 total yards of offense against the Bucs and currently have depth concerns at running back so expect a heavy dose of rookies (Mullings and Chestnut) in the backfield. Atlanta’s third-string QB Easton Stick outshined Tennessee’s Cam Ward in their respective debuts, completing 15 of 18 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Stick’s efficiency, and the ability of the Falcons to convert 3rd downs 4/11, should help sustain drives against a Titans secondary that was exposed in joint practices this week and their first game. Atlanta has some injury concerns and has hinted they may play QB Cousins for a series or two before Stick takes over for the rest of the game. Either way, this number is too high according to our metrics and anything over a field goal is a buy.

#133/134 ASA PLAY ON Under 36.5 Points – New Orleans Saints vs LA Chargers, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Chargers put up 34 points in last week’s HOF Game vs Detroit but that was extremely misleading. LA only had 261 total yards on 4.4 YPP. They benefited from 5 Detroit turnovers with 2 of LA’s TD drives totaling 28 yards or less and 1 FG scoring drive totaling 0 yards. We were very impressed with the Chargers defense however. They limited a very potent Detroit offense to 7 points, on less than 200 total yards and less than 4.0 YPP. The Lions did sit some key players on offense, as most do in the preseason, but still very impressive nonetheless. Not surprising as this LA defense ranked #2 in the NFL last season holding their opponents to 18.5 PPG. They were stout in the preseason as well, holding Detroit to just 1 TD and none of their opponents getting to 20 points last season. That defense should do very well vs a Saints offense that is learning a new system and is unsettled and inexperienced at QB with Rattler (2nd year), Shough (rookie), and Haener (3rd year) all vying for the starting job. Those 3 have fewer than 500 combined yards passing in their NFL careers. New Orleans will struggle offensively here. We also look for the Charger offense to come back down to earth. They won’t be able to sustain their ridiculous 1 point for every 7.5 yards gained last week. Starting QB Herbert will almost assuredly not play as he didn’t take a single snap in last year’s pre-season and he’s coming off an injury. That leaves Trey Lance, Taylor Heinecke and DJ Uiagalelei under center. Backups galore here and we like the Under.

#117/118 ASA PLAY ON Under 38 Points – Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings – Saturday, August 9th at 4 PM ET - Our word is Houston’s offense has struggled during preseason camp while the defense has been lights out on numerous occasions. The Texans defense is expected to be one of the best in the NFL again this year after finishing last season #2 in total defense and #4 in YPP defense. The Houston defense has drastically outplayed the offense thus far in camp and we’re told the stop unit looks “phenomenal” at times. We expected the offense to take some time to get it together with a new coordinator and a total revamped offensive line. If QB Stroud plays at all, it won’t be much as he missed 2 of their 4 NFLX games last year and attempted only 14 passes the entire pre-season. The Texans will most likely be relying on rookie QB’s Mertz and Slovis in the 2nd half. Minnesota will go with starting QB McCarthy for at least a few series in this one but he is basically a rookie with zero NFL game experience. He's struggled in camp thus far and his offensive line isn’t 100% with a few starters getting back into a groove after season ending injuries last year. Just as with Houston, the Vikings defense has been quite a bit ahead of the offense thus far in camp. Minnesota was 4th in the NFL in scoring defense last season and allowed only 38 total points in the pre-season a year ago (12.6 PPG). Since 2010, preseason totals set at 37 or higher have gone Under 57% of the time. We think both offenses will struggle here and we like the Under.

ASA NFLx play on Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday 7:30pm ET *Bonus bet: Bengals 1st Quarter -1.5 - We can’t ignore Bengals head coach Zac Taylor’s record in the preseason of 3-12 SU, 0-5 SU the last two seasons, and will have to grab the points with Philly. Of course, that’s not the only reason, but it’s a good starting point. Taylor has publicly said he plans to play QB Burrow and other starters for the first quarter on Thursday night (we like the Bengals -1.5 1st Q), but once those players go out, the Eagles have much better depth. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 3-7 SU in the preseason, but did win 2 of three a season ago. The QB rotation is a critical aspect of this game, and we like the Eagles backups more than the Bengals. Plus, said backup QB’s will be facing different levels of defense and Philadelphia was significantly better than the Bengals a year ago on that side of the football. Philly is expected to play Tanner McKee and Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the majority of the game with rookie Kyle McCord seeing limited snaps late in the game. The Bengals will give Burrow and starters the first quarter but it’s highly unlikely they will jeopardize their skill players health with a ton of passing attempts. After Burrow comes Jake Browning and Desmond Ridder with Payton Thorne getting mop-up duty. Philadelphia was a top-10 defense a year ago in many key categories including: yards per point allowed, points per game allowed, yards per play allowed, total yards per game allowed. Cincinnati on the other hand was in the bottom half of the league in most key defensive categories. Late in the game when the backups are in, we like the Eagles to have more success offensively and keep this game close in the second half.

NOTE: 1st Half Line is our PREFERRED way to bet this one! ASA NFL play on LA Chargers +1.5 vs. Detroit Lions, 8pm ET - The NFL season is officially here with the Hall of Fame game tonight between the Chargers and Lions. We are going to side with the Chargers in this game with our strongest bet on the 1st half with Los Angeles. The Chargers gave up 5.4 Yards Per Play defensively a year ago and 18.5PPG which was the 2nd lowest number in the NFL. In comparison the Lions allowed 21.5PPG and 5.8YPPL (29th). Detroit lost their Offensive and Defensive coordinators so expect a very vanilla gameplan tonight as new systems are being put in place. Neither team will play many starters at all including their franchise QB’s in Herbert and Goff. We like the Chargers backup QB better with Trey Lance who is schedule to play the first half of this game. Lance provides mobility which will lead to several big plays with his feet rather than his arm. The Lions are going to give Hendon Hooker a long look at QB to see if he can be Goff’s primary  backup. We like Lance with more NFL experience to outshine Hooker and the Lions in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 31.5 Points - NY Jets at Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We were considering a play on the Panthers here, but decided the Over was the better option. We expect the Panthers to rally in Week 2 of the preseason after a humiliating loss in Week 1 to the Patriots. Carolina managed just 7 first downs, 151 total yards of offense and kicked a field goal with under 2 minutes to play for their only score. The Panthers brought in help for the offensive line and need to find some continuity with QB Bryce Young so expect more game action here for the starters. This team was horrendous last season, and it showed in W1 where they sat 33 starters, so reports are they are treating this game differently. In fact, several fights have broken out in the joint practices with the Jets this week. New York had a similar approach in their preseason opener by sitting most starters to evaluate rookies and reserves. The Jets won’t jeopardize QB Rodgers in the preseason, but they do have a viable option with vet Tyrod Taylor. Taylor played in just two series last week and should get more reps in W2. New York’s offense did manage 13 FD’s against the Commanders and 292-total yards of offense in scoring 20-points. This week they face a Panthers defense that gave up 16 FD’s and 274 yards to a lower-tier Patriots offense. The Jets defense gave up 17-points to a below average Washington offense last week and 331 total yards. There has been an over-adjustment to this O/U number based on the Panthers results last week. Preseason games involving a team that scored 10 or less points in the previous game are 79-57 to the Over in the past 13+ seasons. Those teams that struggled offensively have bounced back with 20+ PPG in their next game.

ASA play on UNDER 38 Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 1 PM ET - We expect a low scoring game between these two teams and feel this number of 37 won’t be threatened. The Broncos made the decision to go young at QB and dumped veteran Russell Wilson in the offseason. They drafted Bo Nix and brought in Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. In this preseason opener we doubt the play calling will be very aggressive, nor do we expect many explosive plays from this Bronco’s offense. Denver was one of the slowest paced teams in the league a year ago and also ranked 25th in Yards Per Play. The Broncos were below average in the regular season in points per game, ranking 20th at 21PPG. The Colts’ future and hopes lies with 2nd year QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson was hurt early last season after a solid start, but Indy got a solid season from Gardner Minshew who threw for over 3,300 total yards with 15 TD’s to 9 INT’s. Minshew is gone so the Colts brought in an insurance policy in Joe Flacco to go along with Sam Ehlinger and Kedon Slovis. Indianapolis hasn’t named a starter yet for this preseason game, but indications are Ehlinger and Slovis will get plenty of looks. The Colts had solid offensive numbers from last season but that was with improved play from Minshew who is now gone. Denver’s defense allowed 1-point for every 15.3-yards gained which was 17th in the NFL. The Colts gave up just 5.2 Yards Per Play a season ago which ranked 15th. We don’t expect much from either offense and the average defenses should hold up well against unproven QB’s. NFLx games with a Total of 37 or more points that features conference opponents stay Under at a 67% rate dating back 9 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this one.

#114 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Commanders will be sending rookie QB Daniels under center to start on Saturday and we expect him to have big problems vs this Jets defense.  The 2 teams had a joint practice on Thursday in New York and the NY defense dominated as we expected.  Daniels was 7 of 15 passing but all of his completions were screens and check downs.  It’s been reported that he had only 25 yards passing on those 7 completions.  Washington’s offensive line is not a strong point (ranked 19th per PFF) and they are banged up on top of that.  Three potential starters sat out Thursday’s joint practice and most likely won’t play on Saturday.  That’s bad news vs a Jets defensive line that is talented and deep (ranked #1 per PFF).  We look for Washington’s offense to struggle big time on Saturday vs this deep NY defense.  On the other side the Jets sat QB Rodgers for the joint practice on Thursday and they still moved the ball well on the Commanders defense with veteran Tyrod Taylor at the helm.  Rodgers won’t play in this game on Saturday but Taylor, who has over 12,000 career passing yards, should get lots of run with 3rd string QB Travis out with an injury.  Jets head coach Saleh has been a successful pre-season coach with a 6-3 overall record including a perfect 3-0 in his first NFLX game each season.  The Jets are the better overall team and much stronger on both lines of scrimmage.  We’ll take NY at home on Saturday.

ASA play on Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Friday, 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game we will discuss is the QB rotations for both teams. Depth is critical in NFLx games, and the deeper teams have a clear advantage later in the game. The Texans are the clear-cut choice here when it comes to QB depth. Texans will start and play CJ Stroud and the other starters into the 1st quarter. They will then turn over the QB duties to Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle. Davis/Keenum have a combined 114 career NFL games under center, including several starts. Tim Boyle has even played in 20 games dating back to 2019. In the shortened action in the preseason HOF opener the 3 Texan QB’s combined to go 19/27 for 197 passing yards with 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The Steelers have a QB battle going on in camp, but Russell Wilson will not play in this game and HC Tomlin says Justin Fields won’t start and will only see limited action. Pittsburgh was in the bottom ten teams in the league in Offensive total yards while managing just 17.9PPG which ranked 28th. Houston on the other hand was 12th in total yards gained last season while putting up 22.2PPG. The Texans hold the advantage defensively here too as they gave up 330.7YPG a year ago versus the Steelers who allowed 342.1YPG. We like the aspect of the Texans having live game experience under their belt after the Hall of Fame game while the Steelers are just getting started. We will lay the points with Houston.

#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Under 33.5 Points – Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This game is going to be a battle of inexperienced QB’s and we project both teams will have problems scoring points.  Carolina head coach Canales has already said that starting QB Bryce Young will not play and back up Andy Dalton is out due to an injury.  That means the Panthers will be going with rookie QB Jack Plummer (from Louisville) to start followed by Jake Luton.  Plummer is an undrafted rookie and Luton has just 2 TD’s in his 110 career attempts to go along with 6 interceptions.  They’ll be facing a New England team whose strength is their defense which finished in the top 6 in both YPG and YPP allowed last season.  Offensively the Patriots will use a heavy dose of rookies Drake Maye and Joe Milton at QB.  Jacoby Brissett will open the season as the starter but he took the vast majority of the reps in Tuesday’s practice which actually indicates he’ll see very little if any time on Thursday night.  Maye & Milton are still learning the offense and have been up & down in camp as to be expected.  They’ll be working behind an offensive line that from all reports hasn’t looked great in camp which will make it extra tough on the young QB’s.  Both teams were near the bottom of the NFL offensively last year tying for dead last in scoring at 13.9 PPG, they were 30th and 32nd in total offense, and 29th and 32nd in YPP offense.  Both teams are dealing with new offensive schemes as well (both have new OC’s) which isn’t ideal out of the gate.  Defenses dominate on Thursday night in a low scoring game.

#121 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Both teams plan to play their starters in this game which gives the Bills a solid edge. How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here. The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend. In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times. 17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards. A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP. Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards). Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s). We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win. Lay the small number with Buffalo.

#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG.

#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+

#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Atlanta Falcons vs NY Jets, Monday at 8 PM ET - This total opened at 42 and has dropped to 39. We completely agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Under here. Our power ratings have this total set at 37.5. These 2 had joint practices the last few days and the Jets defense was dominant according to our reports. Atlanta’s offense did next to nothing including in their red zone drills vs NY’s defense. It sounds like the Falcons will start rookie QB Ridder who played extensively in their first preseason game but completed less than 50% of his passes. Even if starter Mariota goes here, he struggled big time vs this Jets defense that last 2 days. The NY offense actually played well vs Atlanta’s defense in joint practices, however because of injury problems, there is a good chance that Jet head coach Saleh will sit his starters in this one. Even if they play, it will be a short stint. Especially QB Flacco who will most likely be the starter early in the regular season with Wilson injured. They cannot afford to lose Flacco to injury so he won’t play much if at all here. All reports were the Jets were the better team the last 2 days practicing vs Atlanta but with the Falcons set to play starters for at least some time and the Jets not sure, the Under is the better play here. Atlanta scored 27 points in their first preseason game vs Detroit who had one of the worst defense in the NFL last year. The Birds had only 307 total yards in that game so they were quite fortunate to get to 27 points. NY had a similar situation scoring 24 points on just 301 total yards. The We look for the Atlanta offense to really have a tough time and with NY’s QB situation, they’ll be going with 3rd stringer White and 4th stringer Streveler for most of the game if not all. Neither team gets to 20 points here and we’ll grab the Under.

#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo.

#405/406 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 – New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - The first week of the NFL preseason saw 14 of the 17 games (including the HOF game) go Over the Total. The average total set by the oddsmakers last week was 34.8 and after last week’s scoring (games averaged 43 total points) the average total set this week is right around 40 which is where this game sits. The Packers total last week vs San Francisco was set at 34.5 and the Saints total vs Houston was 35. This is an over adjustment in our opinion and we think there is some value on the Under in this game. Neither starting QB will take the field in this one and both defenses look like they are ahead of the offenses right now. The Saints defense held Houston to 275 total yards and 17 points last week. One of those TD’s came on a 47 yard drive after a New Orleans turnover and the other came with 25 seconds remaining in the game. The Saints offense only averaged 3.9 YPP in that game (only scored 13 points) vs a Houston defense that finished 31st in YPP defense a year ago. The Niners scored 28 points but had only 328 total yards in their home game vs GB last week. SF was put in favorable field position throughout the game due to 3 Packer turnovers and 3 of their 5 scores came on drives of 39 yards or less. These 2 have been facing off in practice this week and our word is the defenses have dominated. These two defenses should be among the best in the NFL this year and we look for the offenses to struggle in this game. Under is our recommendation.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 33.5 New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans, Saturday 8 PM ET - We will start with the all-important QB positions for both teams. The Saints are without starter Jameis Winston so Andy Dalton will get a series or two under center followed by Ian Book and newly signed KJ Costello. Houston only has two QB’s currently available so Davis Mills will play longer than expected followed by 6-year vet Jeff Driskel. Reports out of the Texans camp is that the offense has looked horrible. QB Davis has been indecisive and hasn’t been good throwing the ball downfield. The best running back in camp thus far has been rookie Dameon Pierce who was drafted in the 4th round. The Texans were one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL a season ago averaging just 4.7 Yards Per Play which ranked them 30th. Houston managed just 1-point for every 16.9 yards gained which was also 30th out of 32 team’s last season. New Orleans is loaded on offense this season but don’t expect to see many of their Super Stars on the field Saturday. As we mention starting QB Winston is out, RB Kamara is facing a suspension so why jeopardize him in a meaningless preseason game and Michael Thomas is coming off a serious ankle injury. New Orleans was well below average in Yards Per Play a season ago at 4.9 and scored just 21.4PPG which was significantly lower than what they averaged the previous season at 29.1PPG. Both teams’ defenses are ahead of the offenses at this point, and we expect a very low scoring game. Bet UNDER.

#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night.

#117 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Houston, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Super Bowl champs step into this game with an 0-2 pre-season record. QB Brady has played one series the entire pre-season and the starters have been very limited. In their game last weekend vs Tennessee, most of the starters didn’t even see the field. That changes this week. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians stated he needs to get his regulars some extended playing time in preparation for their NFL opener vs Dallas. "We can't go against Dallas and all of sudden play game speed. We've got to have some game speed under our belt before we show up against the Cowboys,” Arians said this week. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the pre-season beating the Packers and the Cowboys. Their defense has yet to play against a legit QB having faced Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Cooper Rush so far in their 2 NFLX games. Now they’ll have to face Brady and the Tampa starters for an extended period of time. Despite their 2 wins the Houston offense, still without QB Watson, has averaged just 4.4 YPP. Now they will face perhaps the top defense in the NFL with their QB rotation of Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills. If the Tampa starters play as planned, we basically have one of the top teams in the NFL (Bucs) facing one of the worst teams in the NFL (Texans). We’ll lay it in this game and take Tampa to cover.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 36.5 Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills, Saturday 1 PM ET - The Packers have had some glaring deficiencies defensively in the preseason with 23 and 26 points allowed to the Jets and Texans. It’s only preseason but there are clearly some underlying problems with the Packer ‘D’. Consider the Jets and Texans were two of the worst offenses in the NFL last season and yet they put up 268-yards and 319-yards. New York was 30th a year ago in points scored per game while Houston was 21st in yards per point offensively. Now the Pack face a Bills offense that was 4th in Yards Per Point, 3rd in scoring and 4th in total yards per game gained. Buffalo is planning to start and play their regulars for a few series and clearly have capable backups which produced 41-points last week in Chicago. Green Bay is going to start and play QB Jordan Love who sat out last week against the Jets. Love was 12 of 17 with a TD in his preseason debut and should move the ball here against the Bills. Green Bay has yet to look good in the exhibition season but let’s not forget this unit was 2nd in total yards per game a year ago, 1st in scoring at 31.5PPG and 2nd in Yards Per Point at 12.5. Buffalo has faced the Lions and Bears who were bottom ten teams in the NFL offensively a year ago, so this is a dramatic step up in competition. Look for a few early scores from the starters and some late by the guys fighting for a spot on the rosters. BET OVER.

#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Jacksonville vs New Orleans, Monday at 8 PM ET - New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer has not made it a secret that he wants an up tempo offense. The Jags ran 65 plays last week vs Cleveland and Meyer stated he was upset with the team’s offensive tempo and wanted to push the dial much more heading into this week’s game @ New Orleans. They worked on it all week in practice and we would expect them to run 70+ plays this week. Meyer stated, “I thought practice was much better. I get the first game [being slow], but now I want to try to have a little bit of success.” We like their QB rotation of Lawrence, Minshew and Beathard which should give them a chance to put points on the board this week. The defense is definitely a work in progress and allowed 23 points to the Browns last week after finishing 31st last year giving up 31 PPG. New Orleans only put up 14 points last week vs a very good Baltimore defense but averaged 6.0 YPP. They turned the ball over 6 times in that game including 3 deep inside Raven territory at the 8-yard line, the 11-yard line and the 35-yard line (all potential scoring opportunities lost). On top of that the Ravens turned the ball over at the 11-yard line and were stopped on downs at the Saints 39 in that game (more blown scoring chances). We like the QB competition between Winston and Hill as both are veterans with starting experience and both need to be on top of their game fighting for the #1 job. We expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game with the Jags wanting to play fast and the Saints finishing in the top 10 in plays per game last season. The pre-season has been low scoring for the most part thus far, but we look for this to be one of the higher scoring games to date. Take the OVER.