Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-05-20 | Blazers +6 v. Heat | Top | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on the Blazers. Portland lost by 20 in New York, but it bounced back finally in the Nation's capital with a convincing win over the Wizards last time out. The Blazers won't be lacking for motivation here and I feel they offer great value to sneak in under the radar here and (at the very least!) score the comfortable ATS cover. I think the combination of CJ McCollom, Damian Lillard and Carmelo Anthony keep the visiting side in this one late. The Heat come in off a terrible 105-85 home loss to Orlando as well on Friday. And with a couple nights off before three straight road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents, would anyone fault the home side in some small way looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight? Key Trends: - Portland is interestingly 16-6 ATS in its last 22 vs. the Southeast Division (including 3-0 ATS this season). - The Blazers are 3-1 ATS in their last four as a road dog of six points or less. - Miami is already a poor 1-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. The verdict: I like the very hungry visiting side to take this one down to the wire; grab the points! |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 126 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SIDE PLAY is on the Hawks. Clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. The Eagles have home field advantage, so that's a big plus for them obviously. If this game was in Seattle, the Hawks would be favored by around -4.5 or so? Regardless of that though, I think that Russell Wilson is better than Carson Wentz and I believe he has a better and healthier group of playmakers around him. That's the bottom line here from a situational stand point anyways. Key Trends: - Seattle is 4-1 ATS on the road. - The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six off a loss by six points or less. - Philly is already 0-3 ATS this season after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. The verdict: Wentz is lacking options and an injured Zach Ertz isn't going to save the day. I'm on Seattle! |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* TOP TOTAL is on the OVER Vikes/Saints. Minnesota posted the "The Minneapolis Miracle" vs. the Saints in 2018, which sent the Vikes to the NFC Championship Game, so now New Orelans has an opportunity to avenge that setback. The Vikes are expected to have Dalvin Cook back in the line-up this week, but I still don't think it'll matter in this difficult road venue. The Vikes' Kirk Cousins finished with 26 TD's and six INT's, while Saints' veteran Drew Brees finished with 27 TD's this season, despite missing several games with an injury. How does New Orleans gets its revenge today? Certainly not by playing conservatively or letting the Vikes dictate the tempo of play. If Brees is going to get the monkey off his back and earn another SB, he's going to have to put the pedal down from start to finish. Situationally I believe this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go over the number in five of eight on the road this year. - New Orleans has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten when playing the role of favorite. The verdict: I believe these two veteran QB's in their primes will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the over! |
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01-04-20 | Hornets +12.5 v. Mavs | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* BEWARE OF DOG plays in on the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets broke a five-game slide with a 109-106 outright win in Cleveland last time out and I think they offer great value to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch here as well. Dallas broke a two-game slide with a 123-111 win over the Nets in its last outing, but this is a spot in which they've struggled in for bettors in the past and I think those trends carry over here. Key Trends: - As note that Dallas is a poor 7-10 ATS at home this season. - Also note that the Mavs are a terrible 4-8 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more in their previous outing. - Conversely note that the Hornets are a sharp 10-5 ATS in their last 15 on the road. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the ample points! |
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01-04-20 | Islanders v. Maple Leafs -157 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Toronto Maple Leafs. I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot. The Isles onyl average 2.58 GPG on the road, which ranks them 21st. They've made up for it on the other end with a defense which ranks second on the road in the NHL. But the Leafs have been on a tear of late and they average 3.47 GPG at home. That ranks seventh. Key Trends: - The Leafs are 12-5 (+5.8 units) this year after a win by two goals or more. - NY is just 2-6 in its last eight as a road underdog in the +140 to +160 range in an Eastern Conference arena. The verdict: Ultimatley I think that Leafs' high-powered offense is going to win out over the Isles' stiny defensive play on the road; lay the price! |
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01-04-20 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi Valley State +4.5 | Top | 80-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Mississippi Valley State. These are two very poor teams. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 1-11. Mississippi State Valley is 1-12. That said, I don't think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. Not only that, but the Devils play with revenge here after getting smoked by Arkansas Pine Bluff 91-57 last March. Key Trends: - Arkansas Pine-Bluff is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite. - Mississippi Valley State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog in the -2 to -5.5 range after a three-games or longer losing streak. The verdict: These teams are evenly matched, but the situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side today make it the correct call; play on the Devils! |
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01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE WINNER is on the Buffalo Bills. DeShaun Watson is a better QB than Josh Allen. And that's big. It's the most important position on the field of play. Combined with the "home field" advantage, clearly the underdog Bills have their work cut out for them this afternoon. But other than the QB position, I believe Buffalo has the advantage in all three phases. The Bills were good on the road this season as well, finishing 4-0 ATS as an away underdog and 6-0 ATS overall. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-0 ATS this year off a home loss. - Texans are 2-6 ATS at home this season. - Houston is a poor 1-6 ATS as a favorite this year. The verdict: I'll even recommend to sprinkle a little on the money line here, but the official play is the Bills and the points! |
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01-03-20 | Pelicans v. Lakers -11 | Top | 113-123 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on the LA Lakers. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada OVER 58.5 | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER in the Potato Bowl. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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01-02-20 | Blackhawks v. Canucks -147 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Vancouver Canucks. At some point the Canucks' current five-game win streak is going to come to an end, but I don't think that tonight is the night. Most recently Vancouver got the better of Calgary 5-2. Elias Petterson has 18 goals and 41 points and the Canucks have conceded two goals or less in each of their last four games. The Hawks are playing their best hockey of the year as well right now, but after three straight victories, I think the wheels are finally going to fall off the bus tonight in this difficult road venue. Chicago goalie Corey Crawford owns a poor 3.20 GAA this year, despite earning a win over Vancouver earlier in the season. Canucks netminder Jacob Marstrom has has a 2.63 GAA this season. Key Trends: - Chicago is still a terrible 9-15 (-4 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - Vancouver is a fantastic 3-0 (+3 units) already this season when playing with three or more days of rest. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, lay this very reasonable mid-sized price with confidence! |
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01-02-20 | Flyers v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST is on the OVER Flyers/Knights. I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here. The Flyers have gone just 1-2 in their last three games and they've conceded three goals in that span. Philadelphia will be eager to get back on track and one player to watch is Travis Konecny, who leads the team in points with 35 points. Off a 5-3 loss to the Kings, the Flyers will once again have their hands full with another Western Conference team, but one which enters "firing on all cylinders." The Knights crushed the Ducks 5-2 in their last game. Key Trends: - The Flyers have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. - The Golden Knights have seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of 13 already this season following a victory by two goals or more. The verdict: The writing is on the wall and a high-scoring blowout is in the cards in my opinion; play the over! |
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01-02-20 | Hornets v. Cavs OVER 210 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Hornets/Cavaliers. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, but each comes in hungry and looking for a win here. Fortunately for each, neither plays great defensively either. These are professionals and the chance to win a game when playing for one of these clubs doesn't come around too often. I believe each side is going to push the pace and open up the playbook. Key Trends: - Charlotte has seen the total go over in 11 of 17 as a road dog already this season. - Cleveland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The verdict: Both the ATS numbers/trends and the overall situation point to the "over" as the correct call in this one! |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Cincinnati. BC is 6-6 and I think it'll have its hands full here vs. 10-3 Cincinnati. BC lost three of five down the stretch, and only became eligible in its final game of the season by beating the Panthers. Cincinnati lost two in a row to end the year, once in the regular season finale to Memphis and then once again to the Tigers in the conference championship game. The Eagles will be without coach Steve Addazio, who was let go. Rich Gunnell is the interim. BC relies heavily upon the run game of AJ Dillon, who had 1,600 yards on the year, but who will be sitting this one out as he prepares for the NFL draft. The Bearcats have a powerful RB in Michael Warren, who had 1,300 yards and 16 TD's. QB Desmond Ridder is a dual threat and he finished with 17 TD's and nine INT's.) Key Trends: - BC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. - Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a road loss (including 2-0 ATS this season.) The verdict: Injuries to Dillon will prove to be too much for BC to overcome here; lay the points! |
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01-01-20 | New Mexico v. San Jose State +11.5 | Top | 85-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* CASH-BOMB is on San Jose State. I think 13-2 New Mexico comes into this one complacent vs. hungry 4-10 San Jose State. The Spartans come in off a confidence building 83-68 win over Pepperdine as well, with guar Brae Ivey scoring a career high 23 points. UNM most recently got the better of UC Davis 74-69 on Sunday, anchored by 20 points from Corey Manigault. The Lobos though struggled to pull away and depth is a concern with a couple lingering injuries to two starters. Key Trends: - SJSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a victory in which it won and held its opponent to 70 points or less in. - The Lobos are interestingly 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The verdict: The Spartans only lost to ranked Utah State by 12 points and they come in off their biggest win of the year. The Lobos on the other hand are starting to show "cracks in the armor" after their extended run. I think the "hungrier" team keeps it closer than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe here; grab the points! |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia UNDER 42 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 418 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Baylor/Georgia. 11-2. That's the record of both teams in the Sugar Bowl this year. Baylor's 11 wins ties the most in program history. Overall the Bears average 35.2 PPG, led by dual threat QB Charlie Brewer, who had 30 TD's and six INT's. Defensively though is where Baylor made the biggest strides this season, it enters conceding just 19.3 PPG, led by LB Terrel Bernard, who has at least ten tackles in four of his last six games. Georiga was throttled by LSU in the SEC Championship Game, so it'l be plenty eager to bounce back here. Overall Jake Fromm had 22 TD's and five INT's. The Bulldogs average 31.2 PPG, but their strength this year has been on the defensive side, as they concede only 12.5 PPG. LSU was the only team to eclipse the 20 points plateu on them. Key Trends: - Baylor has seen the total go under in three of its las four as a neutral field underdog. - Georgia has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four following a SU loss. The verdict: Both teams concede less than 4.7 YPG and I believe these elite defensive units will become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the under! |
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01-01-20 | Michigan +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -115 | 410 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on Michigan. I think Michigan's defense can keep it competitive in this one. Each of the Wolverines last four victories came by at least 25 points, as QB Shea Patterson finished with 22 TD's and six INT's. Michigan's strength was on defense though, especially against the run, conceding only 3.03 YPC. The Alabama defense looked shaky this year. Note that it conceded at least 46 points in two of its last four games. The Tide had a fairly easy schedule as well this year. QB Mac Jones is a capable backup for Tua Tagovailoa, but I give the nod to Patterson in the QB matchup department for sure. Key Trends: - The Tide are a poor 5-14 ATS in their last 19 following a SU loss. - The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Alabama is "supposed" to be in the Playoff, but it's not this year. The Citrus Bowl isn't that big and I believe the Tide come in disinterested. I also believe their defense is vastly over-rated. While I do think the outright is possible, in the end let's grab the points! |