Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-14-18 | Cavs v. Wizards UNDER 220 | Top | 95-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Total Of The Month is on the under Cavs/Wizards (7:05 EST). Cleveland comes in off a big win over the Hornets at home last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable offensive letdown here from the under-manned and inconsistent Cavs. Washington enters off a much needed 117-109 win over Orlando and it’ll be out to control the tempo/pace of this one and punch another one into the win column. The Cavs are 27th in the league in scoring with an average of 103.3 PPG, but on the second game of the back to back, I have a hard time seeing Cleveland even reaching that mark. The defense is conceding 113.1 PPG, but it admittedly looked a lot better against the Hornets last night. The Wizards are averaging 111 PPG and they’re conceding 118.5. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success, but Washington has looked a lot better of late on both end of the court and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Note that the Cavs have interestingly already seen the total go “under” the number in six of seven vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while the Wizards have seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 23 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-12-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 223 | 124-114 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (8*) under 76ers/Heat (7:35 EST). Philadelphia’s three-game win streak came to an end in a 116-112 OT setback in Memphis on Saturday. Miami is looking to get back to its winning ways as well after falling 116-110 at home to Washington on Saturday. Philly is just 1-6 ATS on the road this year. Overall the 76ers are averaging 111.9 PPG and conceding 112.9. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Joel Embiid is averaging 27.7 points and 13.1 boards per game. Miami is averaging 110.6 PPG and it’s conceding 110.6 as well. Once again, clearly this isn’t a recipe for success either. Goran Dragic leads the nightly charge with 16.1 points and 4.9 assists per night. Note though that Miami has seen the total go “under” in 13 of its last 20 after playing three consecutive home games, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in its last four games vs. teams with losing records. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs UNDER 51.5 | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 144 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U top play is the under Redskins/Bucs (1:00 EST). Washington will be eager to get back on track here after a 38-14 setback at home to Atlanta, while the Bucs are also out for some redemption after a 42-28 blowout road loss in Carolina last weekend. Washington is averaging just 20 PPG this year, as it’s been the defense doing the “heavy lifting” most weekends, allowing a respectable 21.5 PPG. QB Alex Smith has 1,867 passing yards and a 9/3 TD/INT, while RB Adrian Peterson has 604 rushing yards on the season. TB is averaging 28.6 PPG and it’s allowing 34.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. But the Bucs catch a break this week in my opinion facing a Redskins offense that’s still trying to find itself. While these are normally two higher-scoring teams, I’ll point out that the Redskins have seen the total go under the number in six of their last eight as an underdog, while the Bucs have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 14 following two or more consecutive SU losses. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-05-18 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 238 | Top | 116-122 | Push | 0 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Goin Under Total is the under Pelicans/Thunder (8:05 EST). The Pelicans started off strong, but they’ve since regressed. The Thunder were a mess to open the campaign, but they’ve been firing on all cylinders of late. Two teams moving in opposite direction collide and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The Thunder have won four straight, most recently a 134-111 road win in Washington on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? New Orleans on the other hand is coming off five straight losses, most recently a 109-95 setback at San Antonio. Pelicans’ star Anthony Davis has recently commented about the pressure of having to play at such a high level every night to even give his team a chance to succeed. Davis had 17 points, eight boards, three assists and five blocks in the loss to the Spurs. OKC has definitely turned things around of late, but note that during its recent win skein it has in fact beaten just one opponent with a winning record. Russell Westbrook had 23 points, three boards and 12 assists in the win over Washington. I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 33 following a divisional contest, while OKC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 19 off an upset win as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints UNDER 60 | Top | 35-45 | Loss | -109 | 148 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Rams/Saints (4:25 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? Clearly high-flying, explosive offenses would be right up at the top. LA is 8-0 and New Orleans is 6-1. Both teams have been the “cream of the crop” this season, but I’m expecting more of a “chess match” on Sunday afternoon. It’s hard to win on the road consistently in the NFL, but so far the Rams are a perfect 4-0 away from friendly confines. QB Jared Goff has 2,425 passing yards and a 17/5 TD/INT. The ground game has been extremely strong as well, averaging 153.1 yards per game, with Todd Gurley leading the charge with 800 yards and 11 TDs thus far. Look for the dynamic back to play a pivotal role in the Rams offense today (as he does each week.) Aaron Donald has been a standout defensively with ten sacks. The Saints’ have won six straight QB Drew Brees has 1,990 yards and a sharp 14/1 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 108 yards per game, with Alvin Kamara leading the way with 408 yards and seven TDs. Note that LA has in fact seen the total go “under” the number in three of four on the road already this season, while New Orleans has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU/ATS victories and in five of its last six against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 51 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 30 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Lions/Vikes 8* (1:00 EST). Both teams are desperate for a victory. Both teams enter off losses. In my opinion, this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a run-and-gun “shootout.” Detroit lost 28-14 at to Seattle, while Minnesota fell 30-20 at home to the Saints. Detroit is averaging 24.4 PPG and it’s allowing 26.6. Clearly that’s not going to get the job done going forward. QB Matt Stafford had 310 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s loss, but he also had a costly INT and a fumble. Note that the Lions traded WR Golden Tate to the Eagles this week. The Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. QB Kirk Cousins has a 16/4 TD/INT. Despite allowing 30 points to the Saints last week, the Vikes’ strength still remains on the defensive side of the ball. I’ll point out that Detroit has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 13 against the division and in 7 of its last ten as a fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 208 | Top | 88-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the Jazz/Nuggets over (9:05 EST). Utah enters off a listless 110-100 home loss to Memphis. Donovan Mitchell sat that one out and the Jazz looked poor on both ends of the floor. The high-flying Nuggets will look to take advantage and to get out and push the pace of this one from strait to finish. Denver enters off a 110-91 road victory over Cleveland. Utah though is averaging 114.3 PPG, while allowing 109.3. The Jazz have been one of the best defensive clubs in the league the last few years, but in the early going so far this season that hasn’t been the case. Note though that the over is 4-1 in Utah’s five road games. Denver is averaging 112.5 PPG and it’s allowing 103.6. Nikola Jokic leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points, ten boards and 6.6 assists. I’ll point out as well that Utah has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Denver has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 17 after a three games or more SU unbeaten streak. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Louisville v. Clemson UNDER 60 | Top | 16-77 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Louisville/Clemson (12:00 EST). Louisville is just 2-6. In the loss to Wake Forest most recently QB Jawon Pass had 358 yards and a TD. Clemson is 8-0. Most recently the Tigers destroyed FSU, as QB Trevor Lawrence had 314 yards and four TD’s. The Cardinals have had a difficult schedule so far, but giving up 56 points to the Demon Deacons clearly can’t be sitting well with the team. Clemson has to be careful though, as it will have to avoid “looking past” its lowly opponent today to its game against Boston College. After that though it’s clear sailing for the Tigers, with games against Duke and South Carolina to finish the season. A perfect campaign is definitely plausible for Clemson, but “staying in the moment” is clearly paramount. At two wins, Louisville won’t be invited to a bowl game this year, but it’ll be playing for pride none-the-less this afternoon. Note that the Cards have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Clemson has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite of 31 points or more and in five of its last six home games where the total is between 56.6 and 63. I’m banking on more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-02-18 | Clippers v. Magic UNDER 217 | 120-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* Down Under Total is the under Clippers/Magic (7:05 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense. However, I think the conditions are right for more of a defensive affair this evening. The Clippers enter off a high-scoring 122-113 loss in Philadelphia just last night and I expect the team to come in with “heavy legs” in the second game of the back-to-back. The Magic will look to take advantage. Note that Orlando has lost seven straight in this series. The Magic come in having lost three straight overall and they’ll be desperate to reverse their fortunes with a solid defensive effort in my opinion. Note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 road games in the second game of a back to back in which it gave up more than 120 points and lost in the first. Additionally note that Orlando has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 24 after a three games or more SU/ATS losing streak. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 143 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Jets/Bears (1:00 EST). The 3-4 Jets are at Soldier Field to take on the 3-3 Bears on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Last week the Jets lost to the Vikes and rookie QB Sam Darnold had 206 yards, one TD and three INTs, while Isaiah Crowell managed only 29 yards. Last weekend the Bears fell to the Pats in a shootout, as QB Mitch Trubisky had 333 yards, two TDs and two INTs. These two normally offensively challenged teams have played to many high-scoring affairs already this year, including last weekend, which makes it important to note that the Jets have in fact seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open “shoot-out.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 109 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* World Series Game 1 Opener is on the “over” at 8:05 ET. The Boston Red Sox won a franchise-record 108 games this year and easily advanced to the World Series with 3-1 and 4-1 series win over the Yankees (team's most-hated rival) and Astros (defending champs). The Los Angeles Dodgers were 16-26 back in May and were in third-place in the NL West in September. However, they won a Game 163 tie-breaker to capture the NL West title, then took out the Braves 3-1 in an NLDS matchup. In the NLDS, LA need to win Game 7 in Milwaukee, before advancing to the World Series in back-to-back years for the first time since 1977 and 1978. Boston is looking for its fourth World Series crown in 15 years (won in 2004, 2007 and 2013), while the Dodgers are attempting to end a title drought that dates to 1988 (you may just have seen or heard about Kirk Gibson's Game 1 HR once or twice). A pair of MLB's top lefties square off in Game 1. Three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (2-1 & 2.37 ERA in four appearances, including three starts, in the 2018 postseason) for LA and Chris Sale (1-0 & 3.48 ERA in two starts and one relief stint) for Boston. Kershaw will be pitching at Fenway Park for the first time in his career. "I don't really think about that stuff," Kershaw said during a press conference. "I appreciate the history and everything that goes along with Fenway Park. ... Check this one off as far as pitching (Tuesday), but I don't really think about the history part of it too much, honestly." To be kind, Kershaw has experienced "mixed results" in the postseason and stands 9-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 28 career appearances (22 starts). Sale will be pitching for the first time in 10 days. He started Game 1 of the ALCS (just four innings, although he threw 86 pitches) but missed his Game 5 start due to a stay in the hospital with a stomach ailment (he was scheduled to start Game 6 vs Houston). "Just had a stomach thing," said Sale, who earned his first postseason win in the ALDS. "It's not fun. It's definitely not fun watching your team. Got to do what you got to do, though. It happened, we dealt with it, and we're here now. We keep rolling." Sale is 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA in five career postseason appearances (three starts). I saw the following statement on ESPN.com. "The first game of the Series will be a rare treat: two true aces in the prime of their careers going toe-to-toe in an old-school starting pitcher showdown." However, is that really the case? Kershaw's postseason record leaves MUCH to be desired and Sale's, in far fewer appearances, is checkered, at best. Plus, just who knows about Sale's health? The Dodgers set a club record with 235 HRs during the regular season and in 87 road games in 2018 (regular and postseason) LA has averaged 5.34 RPG. As for Boston, the Red Sox led all MLB teams in runs, BA and OPS during the regular season plus in 85 home games at Fenway this year, have averaged 5.69 RPG. This one is Goin' Over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-22-18 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 227 | Top | 113-124 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST). The Knicks come in off back-to-back losses to Boston and Brooklyn and they’d appear to be in over their heads here as well as New York soldiers forward to start the season without the services of offensive star Kristaps Porzingis. The Bucks come sin off victory over Indiana and Charlotte and they’ll look to dictate and control the pace of this one from the outset. Kevin Knox has come up big for the Knicks in back-to-back games with double digits in scoring off the bench, but he’d also suffer an ankle injury last time out. Tim Hardaway Jr. is now left to do the heavy lifting for an undermanned Knicks squad. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 15 boards and six assists in the most recent win over Indiana for Milwaukee. The Bucks haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but they’ll have an opportunity to pad their defensive stats as well tonight. I’ll point out as well that that New York has seen the total go under the number in 18 of its last 32 following a divisional contest, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 23 of its last 38 following a victory by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears UNDER 49.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 142 h 31 m | Show | |
My 9* Total is on the under Pats/Bears (1:00 EST). New England enters off a high-scoring shoot-out victory at home over the Chiefs and I think it’ll be more conservative here in this difficult road venue Sunday afternoon. Chicago sports one of the best defensive fronts in the league with pass rusher Khalil Mack leading the charge. The Pats now also have a legitimate RB threat in Sony Michel, who I expect to see a lot of action today. Last week he had 106 rushing yards with two TD’s. Last week the Dolphins’ Brock Osweiler had 380 passing yards and two TD’s against Chicago. But performances like that have been few and far between for the Bears’ defense and a return to form in this important game and on home field is imminent in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 26 as an underdog and in 11 of its last 17 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue OVER 66 | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 99 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Ohio State/Purdue (7:30 EST). The second ranked and unbeaten Ohio State Buckeyes have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Dwayne Haskins. Ohio State is so far 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten, most recently pulling away for a convincing 30-14 win over Minnesota. Haskins was 33 of 44 for 412 yards and three TDs. Coach Urban Meyer though thinks his team can play even better: “I don’t think we played particularly well today. We’ll know more when we get a film grade, and I’ll let you know on Monday how they played,” Meyer said post-game. “We gave up three sacks. We have to keep Dwayne upright. Short yardage is not a strength. Red zone is not a strength, and running the ball is not a strength. That’s something we’ve got to get figured out.” Purdue is 3-3 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, but it comes in on top form, having won three straight. Most recently the Boilermakers come in off a 46-7 win over Illinois this past Saturday. QB David Blough was 25 of 36 for 377 yards and three TDs and Purdue would roll up 611 yards of total offense, including 150 rushing yards from DJ Knox. During the win streak Blough has been unstoppable, going for 1,001 yards and seven major scores. I’ll point out that Purdue has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 14 as a home underdog and in six of its last eight after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game, while Ohio State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight as a road favorite and in ten of its last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. Two teams firing on all cylinders offensively collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a “shootout.” Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 207 | 101-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP is on the “under” C’s/Raptors 8* (8:05 EST). Boston enters off a 104-87 win over the 76ers at home, while Toronto finished with a 116-104 home victory in its opener over Cleveland. Note that the home team prevailed in all four games last year, with Toronto take the final matchup 96-78 on April 4th. Boston didn’t play very well offensively against the 76ers though, shooting only 43.3 percent from the floor, including only 11 of 37 from range. It did force 16 turnovers though, while also holding Philadelphia to just 39.1 percent shooting and 5 of 26 from range. Jayson Tatum led the way with 23 points and nine boards. Toronto shot decently in its opening win (48.9 percent), but it would go just 14 of 33 from range and only 12 of 20 from the charity stripe. The Raptors did decisively control the boards by a 56-40 margin. Kyle Lowry led the way with 27 points and eight assists, while Kawhi Leonard put up 24 points and 12 boards. This is going to be a war each time these teams get together this year and I think the first one falls “under.” Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-17-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Mil/LAD Over at 5:05 ET. Cody Bellinger ended a five hour-plus marathon with an RBI single in the bottom of the 13th, as the Dodgers earned a 2-1 victory in Game 4 to even the NLCS at two games apiece. Bellinger had two hits in Game 4 after going 1-for-21 in the first seven contests during the postseason and Manny Machado scored the winning run after extending his hitting streak to five games (8-for-22). Machado and Tayor are hitting a combined .355 for LA in this series but the rest of the team is batting just .159 against Milwaukee. LA in batting just .205 this postseason, including .201 in the NLCS, where the Dodgers have scored only 11 runs (that's 2.75 per game). Milwaukee isn't exactly 'tearing the cover' off the ball either, batting .231 against LA and averaging 3.5 RPG (14 runs in the four games, so far). However, Milwaukee's starting pitchers have yet to allow a run in the series, although is has to be noted that the group has pitched a modest total of only 14 innings (Gonzalez has drawn two starts but has stayed around for just THREE innings!). The Game 5 starters for this tie-breaking contest will be Milwaukee's Wade Miley and LA's Clayton Kershaw. Miley does not have a decision in two starts this postseason but has given the Brewers a chance to win in each outing, allowing only five hits and just one walk over 10 1/3 scoreless innings (0.35 WHIP). Miley was 5-2 (2.57 ERA) in 16 starts for Milwaukee in the regular season (Brewers went 12-4) and in 10 road starts this year (including one in the playoffs), he's sparkled with a 2.29 ERA, with Milwaukee going 8-2. Kershaw was brilliant in his first outing of the playoffs, allowing two hits over eight scoreless innings to beat Atlanta on Oct 5 but his postseason woes surfaced in his Game 1 start at Milwaukee, as he allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks across just three innings to take a loss in the Brewers' 6-5 victory. Injuries limited Kershaw to 26 starts during the regular season, as he went a modest 9-5. However, he posted a 2.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and batters hit only .205 against him. With neither team hitting well and these two starters, "under" would be a reasonable play. However, I'm not even a little sold on Miley and LA's bats can't stay silent forever! Let me also note that Milwaukee's heralded bullpen has been less than spectacular, as if one removes Hader's 4 2/3 scoreless innings, the remaining relief staff owns a 4.71 ERA against LA. Just as importantly, how can anyone trust Kershaw in the postseason (8-8 with a 4.26 ERA over 26 appearances, including 21 starts)? In fact, he's been at his worst during his NLCS appearances, going 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 appearances (eight starts). This one is Goin' Over! Good luck, Larry |
|||||||
10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under 76ers/Celtics. The 76ers improved by a whopping 24 victory from 16/17 to 17/18. After taking care of Miami in the first round, Philadelphia was then bounced from the second from these very Celtics. Philly averaged 109.8 PPG last year but if the 76ers hope to make a real push for the title, clearly they’ll have to get things figured out defensive after allowing an average of 105.3 PPG last year. Big man Joel Embiid led the way with 22.9 points, 11 boards and 1.76 blocks per game, while Ben Simmons added 15.8 points, 8.1 boards, 8.2 assists and 1.73 steals per game. Last year the Celtics averaged 104 PPG, while conceding just 100.4. Kyrie Irving led the way until he was injured with 24.4 points and 5.1 assists per game. Irving and Gordon Hayward are both at 100% health and the rest of the team (Marcus Smart, Al Horford and standout Jayson Tatum) remain. This one has the feel of an all “war” to me, rather than a wide-open All Star Game style of contest. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* Total Wipeout Winner is the under 49ers/Packers (8:15 EST). The 49ers come in off a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals. After losing starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to injury three weeks ago and sitting at just 1-4, San Francisco’s season is essentially over. If the 49ers hope to turn things around, the last thing they can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Aaron Rodgers and company. The Packers have been trading good starts with bad. After a 22-0 win over the Bills, they took a step back in last week’s 31-23 setback to Detroit. But the Green Bay defense has a big opportunity to redeem itself here against San Francisco back-up QB CJ Beathard, who for the most part has struggled in his forced started role. Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Green Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Chargers v. Browns OVER 44 | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Goin Over Total is on the over Chargers/Browns (1:00 EST). Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. LA enters off a convincing 26-10 him win over Oakland, while Cleveland posted a 12-9 OT home victory over Baltimore. Last year Philip Rivers beat the Browns 19-10 at home and he’d pass for 344 yards and a TD. LA comes in averaging 27.4 PPG and it’s conceding 26. The margin for victory is slim. Rivers though has a sparkling 13/2 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland is averaging 22.8 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. RB Carlos Hyde now has 348 rushing yards and five TD’s. The Browns defense looked superb last week against a poor passing game (Joe Flacco), but I think the unit will have its hands full today against Rivers’ arial assault. Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3 and in four of its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Additionally note that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite. I think this number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints OVER 52 | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 35 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Skins/Saints (8:15 EST). The Saints will be opening up the playbook today in an attempt to get QB Drew Brees at least 201 passing yards. Brees is on the cusp of becoming the league’s all time passing leader and I look for the veteran pivot to put on a show in front of the home town crowd today. So that means that the 2-1 Redskins, who come out rested after their bye week, and QB Alex Smith will be forced to match pace. And that suits Smith just fine. So far the veteran has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 767 yards with four TD’s and one INT. Smith has gotten plenty of help as well from RB Adrian Peterson, who is enjoying a resurgence in the Nation’s capital, so far with 236 yards and three TD’s. Brees so far has 75.8 percent of his passes so far this year to go along with 1,295 passing yards with eight TD’s and no INT’s. He’s going to benefit greatly today as well from the return of bruising back Mark Ingram. The combo of Ingram and Alvin Kamara makes the Saints offense extremely dangerous, as opposing defenses are forced to stay honest. I’m not expecting a lot of defense being played by either side. Not that New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 31 games after a straight up victory of more than 14 points, while Washington has seen the total go over nine of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout, one which is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry team’s has its hands on the ball last. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 148 h 51 m | Show | |
My 9* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Chargers (4:05 EST). Oakland comes in off a 45-42 home win over Cleveland, while LA held on for a tough 29-27 victory over San Francisco. After both teams played to higher-scoring “shoot-outs” last weekend, I’m expecting a much more defensive “chess match” in Week 5. Raiders’ RB Marshawn Lynch had a big game against the Browns, going for 130 yards. He now had 300 yards rushing and three TD’s. LA is 18th against the run, so look for Jon Gruden to establish the run game throughout tonight. The weakness in Oakland is on the defensive side, but I think the unit bounces back this weekend. The Chargers can’t be happy with the way they performed last week, facing the 49ers and a back-up QB as a 14 point fav, they barely held on for the victory. Philip Rivers continues to be a bright spot for the Chargers, he has 11 TD’s and two INT’s. I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten against teams with losing records, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in ten of its last 13 against the division. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on NYY/Bos Over at 7:30 ET. The Yankee/Red Sox rivalry ranks with the very best in any sport. New York won 100 games during the regular season but still needed to survive a one-game wild card playoff on Wednesday, which the Yankees won 7-2. That victory sends them to Fenway Park on Friday night to face the 108-win Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox set a franchise record for wins during the regular season and ran away with the AL East. However, it's "all even" now, as the first team to three wins will advance to the ALCS. The teams meet in the postseason since 2004, when Boston came from down 0-3 to win four in a row. The Yankees set a MLB record with 267 HRs and rank second in runs scored (5.25 per) and OPS (.781). Boston enters the postseason ranking first in runs scored (5.41 per), BA (.268) and OPS (.792). Boston won the season series 11-8. The pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, J.A. Happ (17-6, 3.65 ERA) of the Yankees and Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) of teh Red Sox. Happ has been excellent for New York, going 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts (Yanks were 9-2) after being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays. He closed on a strong note, posting a 1.86 ERA in five September outings. Sale spent September trying to build up his pitch count and strengthen his shoulder after two trips to the disabled list. He struggled in his last two outings, allowing a total of five runs on nine hits across eight innings. How can one trust Sale, who has thrown just 17 innings since July 27 because of a shoulder inflammation problem? What's more, the Red Sox enter the postseason loaded with bullpen questions, as Boston relievers had a cumulative 4.84 ERA over the team's last126 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees' bullpen took care of the last five innings Wednesday night against Oakland and ranked fourth in bullpen ERA (3.38) during the regular season. As for Happ, he surrendered nine runs - four earned - on nine hits over 9 2/3 total innings at Fenway Park this season. It should come as no surprise that MLB's two-best offensive teams averagaed 11.47 RPG in their 19 regular season meetings. That means I'm Goin' Over in this one. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Col/Mil Over at 4:15 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers posted their NINTH straight victory (24th in their last 31 games) with Thursday's 3-2 (10 inn) win over the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this NLDS. Leading National League MVP candidate Christian Yelich hit a two-run HR and scored the winning run in the 10th (on Moustakas' game-winning RBI), after the Brewers let a 2-0 lead slip away in the ninth inning. Yelich reached base four times (HR, single and two walks) plus stole a base in his postseason debut. The loss was just Colorado's THIRD in its last 13 games. It's Game 2 of the series late this afternoon at Milwaukee, as Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.55 ERA) will square off against Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50 ERA). It seems as if Anderson was able to earn this start by scattering four hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings against Washington on Sunday to snap a 13-start winless streak during which he went 0-6 (team was 2-11). "I went through some struggles, but everyone does at some point or another," Anderson said in his press conference. "I was just happy that I was healthy, and I knew if I felt good and I and I stayed healthy and strong, I could find a way to fix it."That's a pretty optimistic outlook for a guy whose last win prior to last Sunday came way back on July 4. Chacin pitched in Monday's tiebreaker game against the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run on one hit (a solo HR in 5 2/3 innings before departing. The 30-year-old has had a "career season" in 2018, as the Brewers went 23-12 in all of his starts, giving him a plus-$1079 moneyline mark, which ranks 11th-best among all starting pitchers. Chacin played for Colorado from 2009-14. "Pretty much all the guys there are all my friends still, and pretty much all the coaches, too," Chacin said in his press conference. "It's special that I'm going to have the opportunity to pitch against them in the postseason, just happy that I'm going to have a chance to pitch against the Colorado Rockies." The Brewers only scored three runs in Game 1 but the team missed MANY chances, as they stranded 18 runners! That should change here vs Anderson, who was 'lit up' for seven runs and seven hits (including three HRs) over just four innings in a loss to Milwaukee back on Aug 4. Anderson is 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA in three career matchups against Milwaukee. As for Chacin, he's being asked to pitch on three days' rest and isn't Colorado's lineup overdue to break out? The Rockies have scored just two, three and two runs in their three games this week. Play the Over. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Jets v. Jaguars OVER 38 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 144 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jets/Jags (1:00 EST). It’s an important game for both teams. I think this total will eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch. New York comes in off a 21-17 loss to Cleveland. The Jets had a 14-0 lead, but they were unable to hold on down the stretch. Overall though the Jets have been competitive this year, averaging 25.7 PPG and conceding 19.3. Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TD’s and five INT’s through three games. Jacksonville beat the Patriots and then it fell flat in last week’s 9-6 loss to Tennessee. QB Blake Bortles had 155 yards passing. So far the Jags are averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing just 14.7. I’ll point out though that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 at home, while New York has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records. These are two under-performing offenses which come in with something to prove. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 61 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 110 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under USC/Arizona (10:30 EST). Arizona has won back to back gams, including a 35-14 victory over Oregon State to open Pac-12 play last Saturday. The Wildcats will be tested by USC, which is 2-2 overall and 1-1 in Pac-12 play. Last week JT Daniels threw for 241 yards and three TD’s in his team’s 39-36 come from behind win over WSU. After that emotional victory though, I do definitely feel that the Trojans are poised for a bit of a letdown this week. Tyler Vaughns was another standout last week with 64 receiving yards and a TD. The run game was strong as well, posting 155 overall. Arizona RB JJ Taylor rushed for a career-high 284 yards last week, and he had scoring runs of 62 and 40 yards. QB Khalil Tate has been turned into more of a pocket passer this year; last season he rushed for 1,411 yards and so far this season he has 73 total yards. But the Wildcats’ defense was the most impressive thing to me last week, holding Oregon State to a season-low 238 yards. Arizona had been horrible defensively before that, but it was a big step in the right direction and I think the unit has a big opportunity to build off that performance against what I believe to be a “gassed” Trojans’ offense. I’ll point out as well that USC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as an underdog. I think the stage is set for more of a defensive battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans OVER 41 | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 144 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Giants/Texans (1:00 EST). I’m expecting these two under-achieving and desperate/hungry NFL teams to open up the playbook and put some points on the board this afternoon. New York enters off a 20-10 road loss to Dallas, while Houston lost 20-17 at Tennessee. The Giants are desperate here, as it’s virtually impossible to even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards last week, but he was sacked six times. New York has to open up the playbook today, it does not have the luxury of sitting back and hoping that things will start to click (averaging just 14 PPG over the first two, ranked 30th overall.) The New York defense has been a bright spot, but the unit faces an equally as hungry 0-2 Texans team today that’s out to make a statement in front of the home town crowd. QB DeShaun Watson had 310 passing yards in last weeks setback, with two TD’s and an INT. The Texans have also looked decent defensively in the early going, conceding 23.5 PPG. Admittedly these are two teams which do not play to many “overs,” but the overall “situation” that each finds itself in coming into this one points to more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a ground-and-pound “chess match” in my opinion. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears OVER 43 | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the over Hawks/Bears (8:15 EST). Neither team can sit back and hope the other one makes the first mistake. Neither can afford that luxury as each comes in desperate after starting the season 0-1. The Seahawks are going to have to open up the playbook today after losing WR Doug Baldwin to injury in last week’s 27-24 setback at Denver. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards on seven carries, while TE Will Dissly had three catches for 105 yards and a TD. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a decent game with 298 yards, three TD’s, but also two INT’s. The Bears couldn’t hold on in Green Bay in Week 1, falling 24-23 in the end (after having a 24-6 halftime lead.) Chicago won’t be making that same mistake twice though as I expect the Bears’ offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. QB Mitchell Trubisky had 171 yards, while also running for 32 yards and a TD. The Bears looked great defensively in the first half (when QB Aaron Rodgers was sidelined with injury), but the unit didn’t look especially impressive in the second and in the eventual collapse. I’ll point out as well that the Seahawks have seen the total go over the number in on their last two Monday Night Football games, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of their last eight following a divisional contest. This one has all the makings of a wide-open shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Giants/Cowboys (8:20 EST). The Giants lost 20-15 at home to the Jaguars in Week 1, while the Cowboys fell 16-8 at Carolina. These two division rivals come into Week 2 desperate for a victory, as 90% of teams which have started 0-2 in the NFL over the last 30 years have failed to make the playoffs. Giants’ rookie RB Saquon Barkley had 106 yards and a TD last week. QB Eli Manning though was ineffective, going for 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. As mediocre as the New York offense looked though, was as decent as the defense performed, limiting the Jags to just 305 total yards of offense. Keep your eyes on Janoris Jenkins, who led the team in tackles and had an INT as well. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott was 19 of 29 for 17 yards, while also losing a fumble in Week 1. In all Prescott was sacked six times. Note that dating back to last year Prescott has thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games. RB Ezekiel Elliot can’t do it by himself, as the Dallas offense has now turned completely one-dimensional. Note that the Giants have seen the total go under the number in 17 of their last 23 as an underdog, while the Cowboys have seen the total go under in 13 of their last 20 as the favorite. This number is a little bit high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 127 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the over Pats/Jags (4:25 EST). Both teams come in off victories and each of those contests went “under” the number. Jacksonville has one of the most talented defenses in the league and New England’s unit isn’t far behind. All of that said though, I think that the visitors are going to push the pace of this one from the outset in an attempt to get the home side out of its comfort zone and in the end, I look for this total to sneak above this fairly low number once it’s all said and done. Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 277 yards and three TD’s last week. The defense looked sharp at home, but it’ll have a more difficult time this week I think in trying to slow down the combination of Leonard Fournette (or TJ Yeldon if Fournette can’t go. Yeldon had 69 yards last week), and Blake Bortles. Bortles had 176 yards, a TD and an INT in his team’s 20-15 road win over the Giants. I’ll point out as well that despite being considered one of the best defensive clubs in the league, the Jags have seen the total go over the number in three of their last four as a home dog of three points or less and in nine of their last 15 in front of the home town crowd overall. This is a big time revenge game for the Jags. They’ve lost 11 of 12 in the all time series, including a 24-20 setback in the AFC title game in January. The Jags need to take the fight to the Pats today. This one has the feel of a “shootout” to me. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts OVER 46.5 | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 170 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM on the over Bengals/Colts (1:00 EST). These are two teams loaded with people who have something to prove this year. Cincinnati was 7-9 last season, while Indianapolis was 4-12. When these teams played in October, the Bengals came out on top 24-23. Andy Dalton is back under center for Cincinnati, last season he had 3,320 passing yards along with a 25/12 TD/INT. Joe Mixon is the No. 1 RB this year after posting 626 rushing yards in 14 games. The Bengals were decent defensively, allowing just 21.8 PPG and the addition of new defensive co-ordinator Teryl Austin should only make the unit better in 2018 (note though that the Bengals were 30th against the run the last year.) Andrew Luck is back under center for the Colts this season as well. In 2016 he had 4,240 passing yards and a 31/13 TD/INT. Last year Indianapolis was poor defensively, allowing 25.3 PPG. The unit made a couple moves in the off-season, including drafting LB Darius Leonard in the second round, but it’s expected to once again be a weakness for the team this season as well. With two veteran QB’s looking to regain their once dominant form, all signs point to this one flying over sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 45 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 170 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is the over Titans/Dolphins (1:00 EST). Last year Tennessee finished 9-7, beating KC 22-21 in the Wild Card round before then falling 35-14 to New England in the Divisional. Miami was 6-10 last year and missed the playoffs. These teams played last season and the Titans come into this one playing with revenge after falling 16-10 in Miami last October 8th. While that total stayed well below the number in that one and while neither side is known for its explosive offense, I still feel this number is a little low as I expect each to open up the playbook. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota had 3,232 yards, 13 TD’s and 15 INT’s last year. He also had 312 rushing yards and five more major scores on the ground. Derrick Henry had 744 rushing yards and five TD’s last year and he’ll be splitting time with Dion Lewis, who came over from the Pats. Miami will be looking to make it to the playoffs this season as well. Ryan Tannehill suffered a torn ACL during the preseason last August and the Fish would never recover after that. Tannehill is back this season though and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Frank Gore, who had 961 yards for the Colts last year. The biggest question now for the Dolphins remains on the defensive side of the ball. The question marks for each are indeed on the defensive side of the ball, which leaves the door open for these offenses to shine. This number is low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 9-8 | Win | 104 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the over Jays/Indians (1:05 EST). I have zero confidence in either of these starting pitchers and I look for these talented line-ups to take advantage. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Plutko (4-5, 5.04 ERA) who returned to the starting rotation in mid August and who has struggled since. Unfortunately for Plutko a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling, as note that he’s already a poor 1-3 with a ballooned 5.60 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Sean Reid-Foley (1-2, 5.51) who has looked decent in Triple-A, but poor in the big leagues. Note that he’s just 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA at home as well. No need to overthink this one. Neither of these guys has shown anything of late to make me think that they’ll suddenly “flip a switch” here. I do indeed believe each will “get the hook” early, which in turn will help in pushing this total over the number once it’s all said and done. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -100 | 272 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Falcons/Eagles (8:20 EST). I’m expecting some offensive fireworks between these hungry teams on Opening night. When these teams last met on January 13th in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, it was Philadelphia who came out on top of the lower-scoring 15-10 affair. Atlanta will be out to avenge that setback and to set a tone early after a difficult 2017/18 campaign. The Falcons certainly won’t be “sitting back” and looking for the Eagles’ methodical offense to make the first mistake. Instead the Falcons will be pushing the pace from start to finish in this one as they try to play to their strengths on offense. Last year Matt Ryan missed Julio Jones from the 2-yard line in the closing moments of the playoff loss to the Eagles. Rayn had 4,095 passing yards, 20 TD’s and 12 INT’s last year. Note though that ATL led the league in dropped passed with 30. Despite the “down” season for everyone, the offense is loaded with talent, including Jones and Mohammed Sanu. Atlanta was decent defensively last year as well, conceding just 19.7 PPG. Deion Jones led the team with 138 tackles and three picks. If Carson Wentz doesn’t suit up for the Eagles, obviously Nick Foles is the next best thing. In three playoff games Foles completed 72.6 percent of his passes. TE Zach Ertz and WR Nelson Agholor will be leaned upon here with Alshon Jeffery shelved with injury. Fortunately for the offense, it has arguably the best line in the league. The defense was decent for Philadelphia last year, but the losses of DL Beau Allen and DE Vinny Curry to free agency are significant. I think it’s worth to note that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six games in the month of September, while Philadelphia has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last seven “Thursday night” contests. Do either of these stats really matter? Well, it certainly doesn’t hurt. I’m expecting a wide open “shoot-out,” play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU OVER 46 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the over Miami/LSU (7:30 EST). It’s No. 8 vs. No. 25 at AT& Stadium in Dallas in a beginning of season Sunday night game. Last year the ‘Canes were 10-3, while the Tigers were 9-4. I think these two hungry teams battle tooth and nail and I look for this total to sneak above the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Last year Miami Florida averaged 29.1 PPG and it should be even better this season with the return of senior QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 passing yards. The Hurricanes gave up just 21 points last year and the defense is poised for another big campaign in 2018/19 as well. However LSU won’t be rolling over here and I think that the duo of Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow have enough talent under center to keep this one competitive. Note that the Tigers averaged 27.2 PPG las year and they conceded 18.9. These teams come in off decent defensive campaigns, but I think this first game has “shootout” written all over it. Note that Miami has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten neutral field games when the total in the contest is between 45.5 and 49, while LSU has seen the total eclipse the number in six of its last ten in the same position. This number is low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins OVER 42.5 | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Broncos/Redskins (8*) (7:30 EST). Two teams hungry for a victory in Week 3 collide on Friday night and suffice it to say, I think that offensive “shootout” is written all over it. Denver will be especially motivated tonight after falling 24-23 to Chicago at home last Saturday. Backup QB Paxton Lynch was just 5 for 11 for 39 yards, but Chad Kelly looked pretty good by going 7 of 9 for 90 yards. And in the opener against the Vikes Kelly threw for 177 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Broncos were a bit of a mess last week and I think the unit will once again have its hands full here against the Redskins. Washington enters off a 15-13 win over the Jets in Week 2, as QB Alex Smith would go 4 for 6 for 48 yards. Backups Kevin Hogan and Colt McCoy though were a combined 19 of 27 for 198 yards. The Redskins looked decent defensively against the Jets backups, but clearly the competition level goes up immensely in Week 3. I’m banking on these two teams fighting hard all game long and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns UNDER 42 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 102 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Eagles/Browns (8:00 EST). Week 3 of the preseason means that each team will play its starters for the majority of this one. While each side has plenty of offensive talent, neither will be playing their starting pivots long and as such, I’m expecting this one to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done. Philadelphia looks to atone defensively as well after last week’s 37-20 road loss at New England in a rematch of the Super Bowl. Overall Cleveland has looked good in the preseason, winning in Week 1, before faltering in last week’s 19-17 home loss to Buffalo. Regardless, the Browns run game and defense have been the stand out units to this point. Cleveland is trying to figure out who its starting QB is going to be as well, with Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield both looking impressive early. But the run game stole the show last week for the Browns, totalling 164 yards on the ground. Rookie Nick Chubb was impressive with 53 yards and a major score. The Eagles have gotten superb QB play from third-stringer Sudfeld to this point, but I think he’ll struggle against the Browns’ talented starting defensive line-up. I believe these offenses will stall on the National stage and I expect the defensive units and special teams to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 43 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SUPER TOTAL is the under Ravens/Colts (8:00 EST). It’s the preseason. It’s Week 2 of the preseason. This is arguably the most unimportant game of the entire year for both teams. Next week though is the “real deal,” as Week 3 is considered the “dress rehearsal” for Week 1 of the regular season. With two wins already (a victory over the Bears in the Hall Of Fame Game), I think the Ravens are going to go through the motions as they look ahead to the much more important Week 3 match-up. Indianapolis beat the Seahawks 19-17 on the road last week, holding Seattle to just 87 rushing yards on 22 carries. Baltimore looked dominant defensively as well last week in its 33-7 victory at home over the LA Rams, holding them to just 49 passing yards (granted Jared Goff wasn’t playing, but it was still a confidence building performance for the unit nonetheless). Jacoby Brissett has looked decent in his backup role to Andrew Luck, who was 6 of 9 for 68 yards in the win over the Seahawks. The Ravens got competent backup play as well from Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III. But I think this one will resemble more of a “chess match” than a run and gun high-scoring “shoot-out.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-19-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Astros/A’s (4:05 EST). These teams went “over” the final 7.5 number in yesterday’s contest as the A’s pulled away for the 7-1 victory. Each side sends out its ace in the finale of this three-game series and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander (11-8, 2.52 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate loss to Colorado on Tuesday, as he’d give up just two runs and strike out 11 over six innings. His 217 K’s on the year rank fifth overall. Note that Verlander has been at his best on the road with a sparkling 9-2, 1.74 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with Sean Manaea (11-8, 3.44) who gave up three runs off five hits with three walks while striking out one over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the southpaw, who will now look to bounce back here and finish the regular season strong. Note that Manaea has a solid 1.05 WHIP and a 6-0, 2.81 ERA record in all day games. I’ll point out as well that Houston has already seen the total go under the number in 20 of 30 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-16-18 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 34-51 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Steelers/Packers (8:00 EST). Last week Pittsburgh won 31-24 over Philadelphia, while Green Bay won 31-17 at home last Thursday night. Note that the Steelers won 31-28 over the Packers in the regular season last year. These teams have opened the pre-season with a couple of high-scoring games, but I’m expecting more of a “chess match” in Game 2. Steelers’ QB Landry Jones was 4 for 4 for 83 yards and a TD, while Mason Rudolph had 101 passing yards on seven completions. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell will not be playing in this one. Ben Roethlisberger didn’t see any time last week, but he should tonight. Big Ben will get his feet wet and hand the ball off a few times before then making way for Jones and company. The Pack got solid performances from a couple hopeful QB’s in their Week 1 victory over the Titans. Brett Hundley was 9 of 14 for 121 yards and a TD, while DeShone Kizer was 9 of 18 for 134 yards. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers did not see any time last week, but he’s also expected to see a few snaps this week. The Packers offense will primarily be focusing on establishing its run game in the preseason though, last week Jamaal Williams had 16 yards on five carries (last year he had 556 rushing yards in his rookie season.) Week 2 of the preseason is completely meaningless. These teams are already looking ahead to their Week 3 “dress rehearsal,” where starters will see action for almost the entire game in preparation for Week 1 of the “real deal.” I think these teams go through the motions late and this one ultimately sneaks under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-09-18 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under Padres/Brewers (2:10 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Erlin (2-3, 3.34 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits and a walk over five innings while striking out four in a win over the Cubs on Thursday. Erlin sticks in the rotation for now in place of the injured Luis Perdomo and he’ll be looking to improve upon his respectable 3.00 ERA in all day games to this point. The home side counters with Junior Guerra (6-7, 3.42) who gave up three runs off five hits over eight innings while striking out six and walking two in an unfortunate no-decision to Colorado on Friday. Over 115.2 innings of work this season Guerra owns the sharp 111/46 K/W and note that he owns an elite 2.25 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. I’ll point out as well that San Diego has already seen the total go under the number in 16 of 26 road games this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 30 of 55 home games. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Yanks/Red Sox (8:05 EST). A couple of veteran hurlers square off on Sunday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Yankees hand the ball to Mashairo Tanaka (9-2, 3.84 ERA) who went six scoreless and struck out eight in a commanding victory over the Orioles on Tuesday. Tanaka comes into this one on top form, having allowed zero runs over his last 15 innings of work. To go along with his sharp record/ERA, note that he also sports an elite 1.04 WHIP and 100/25 K/W over 98.1 innings of work. The home side counters with David Price (11-6, 3.97) who gave up one run off eight hits and one walk over eight innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Phillies on Monday, also going on to strike out five. Price hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s consistently been his most consistent at home with the 5-2, 3.31 ERA record thus far. The Yanks had trouble producing runs yesterday and everything once again points to that being an issue this evening as well. With these two battling deep into the night, the under is indeed the correct call in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Bears v. Ravens UNDER 33 | Top | 16-17 | Push | 0 | 83 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Bears/Ravens (8:00 EST). It’s difficult to completely analyze player match-ups in the pre-season, as not even the coaches know for sure until just before game time who will be suiting up. This one though will feature plenty of back-up QB’s competing for a job. The Bears will see Tyler Bray and Chase Daniel seeing considerable time with starter Mitchell Trubisky not expected to see any. The Ravens’ Joe Flacco and company haven’t made the playoffs in three years and he’ll be challenged this season by Robert Griffin III and draft pick Lamar Jackson. On paper Baltimore has the advantage at QB in this one, but all of these back-up pivots are under a new system and will be working with their units for the first time in a real game atmosphere. With each offense working through growing pains to open the pre-season, I expect these competent defensive units to become the main story-lines in tomorrow’s summaries. The main challenge for each offense is that there are so many new faces in the receiving corps. New systems, new QB’s, new faces. It all adds up to a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring run-and-gun “shoot-out.” For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Orioles v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 8-17 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Orioles/Rangers (9*) Two starters who have for the most part struggled this year collide on Thursday night. Each is coming off a decent outing though and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (3-9, 4.33 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and three walks while striking out two over six innings in a win over Tampa Bay on Friday. Cashner has looked brilliant at times this year (like this last outing) and horrible in others, but note that he does sport a respectable 3.72 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Yovani Gallardo (5-1, 6.26) who comes in off a gem against Houston on Friday, giving up two hits and four walks while striking out five over 5.1 scoreless innings in the victory. It was his second straight outing in which he’s held his opponent scoreless and I expect the veteran to continue his progression here with another solid effort against the offensively challenged Orioles. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in 38 of 69 against right-handed starters this season already, while Texas has seen the total dip below the posted number in 40 of 71 in the same position. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Yankees/Red Sox (8*) 7:10 EST It’s the opener of an important American League East series on Thursday night and in my opinion, this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.53 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks over 4.2 innings while striking out eight in a no-decision to the Royals on Saturday. Sabathia hadn’t pitched in over two weeks, so he was taken out after throwing 79 pitches. Overall Sabathia has been solid this year, but I’ll point out that the Yanks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four road games when the total in the contest is set at either 10 or 10.5. The home side counters with Brian Johnson (1-3, 3.45) who went 5.2 scoreless against the Twins last Thursday. It was his longest outing since his season debut back on April 2nd though and he remains in the rotation only because of the injury to ace Chris Sale. Note that Johnson is 0-1 with a 4.29 ERA at home this year. Also note that Boston has seen the total go over the number in four of its last six as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think these starters will get chased early and I look for this total to scream over the posted number once the smoke clears a the end of the night. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Marlins/Phillies (8*) 7:05 EST A couple of inconsistent hurlers collide in this one and in my opinion, runs would appear plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Pablo Lopez (2-2, 5.34 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a loss to Washington on Friday. Over 28.2 innings of work this year he’s posted the 5.34 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and 23 K’s. The home side counters with the volatile Nick Pivetta (6-9, 4.85 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and two walks in a loss to the toothless Reds on Friday. Pivetta has been “hit or miss” this season, note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.26 ERA at home. I’ll point out as well that Miami has already seen the total go over the number in 19 of 27 this season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go over in 35 of 60 this year following a victory. All signs point to this one blasting past the posted number sooner rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
08-01-18 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Wipeout Winner is on the over Orioles/Yankees (1:05 EST). The Yankees’ 6-3 win yesterday saw the total squeak over the posted number and in my opinion, runs will be plentiful in this one as well. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb (2-14, 6.08 ERA) who gave up four runs off eight hits with a walk while striking out two over six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday. So far over 103.2 innings he owns a poor 1.56 WHIP and note that he’s been particularly poor oh the road by going 2-8 with a 6.35 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Sonny Gray (8-7, 5.08) who took a come backer off his pitching thumb against the Royals on Thursday. Gray had gone five scoreless and he’s been given the green light to go in this one. It’s been a disastrous year for Gray overall though, as note that he owns the ballooned 6.80 ERA at home as well. Also note that Baltimore has already seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 road games this year when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5, while New York has seen the total go over in seven of its last 11 as a home fav in the -250 to -330 range. Expect some “fireworks” on Wednesday afternoon. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-31-18 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under Giants/Padres (4:10 EST). Yesterday’s total “pushed” in the Giants’ 5-3 victory, but I’m expecting more of a “duel” on Tuesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Dereck Rodriguez (5-1, 2.75 ERA) who went six innings against the Brewers on Thursday, giving up two runs off five hits with two walks and striking out five in what turned out to be a no-decision. Rodriguez’s peripherals suggest that his current numbers are sustainable (47/14 K/W) and note that he’s been great on the road with the 2-1, 3.20 ERA record to this point. The home side counters with Clayton Richard (7-10, 5.05) who gave up six runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Wednesday. Richard has struggled this season, but note that he’s been at his best in pitcher friendly San Diego where he’s gone 5-2 with a very respectable 3.44 ERA. I’ll point out as well that San Francisco has already seen the total go under the number in 14 of 22 road games this year when the total in the contest is set between 8 and 8.5, while San Diego has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 against right-handed pitching. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-29-18 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Royals/Yanks (1:05 EST). The Royals exploded for an unexpected 10-5 win as a -415 underdog yesterday and while runs were plentiful in that one, I’m expecting much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith (1-1, 5.58 ERA) who made a spot start on Tuesday against the Tigers and excelled, giving up two runs off one hit with two walks while striking out six over seven innings in the victory. He’d go on to induce 17 swinging strikes and I think he can carry over that momentum into this one. The home side goes with the newly acquired JA Happ (10-6, 4.18) who had 130 K’s over 114 innings with Toronto this season. Happ was the Jays best pitcher over the last two years and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing southpaw won’t be able to produce a quality effort here as well. Additionally I’ll point out that KC has seen the total go under the number in 20 of 33 already this year against left-handed starters, while New York has seen the total go under in 40 of 72 this season against right-handed starters. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the “under” Cubs/Cards (4:05 EST). These teams played to a lower-scoring “under” in the Cardinals’ 5-2 victory yesterday and I think another lower-scoring “duel” is in the cards here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (9-6, 3.87 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off six hits with four walks over seven innings in a win over these very Cardinals last weekend. Over 19 innings in July he’s given up just four runs and note that he’s a very respectable 5-4 with a 3.06 ERA on the road this season. The home side goes with Miles Mikolas (10-3, 2.82) who gave up two runs off six hits while striking out six in a no-decision throwing opposite Quintana on Sunday. To go along with his strong record and ERA, he also sports a sharp 89/22 K/W. Note that he’s 4-3 with a tiny 1.99 ERA at home as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago has already seen the total go under the number in ten of 15 road games this year when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5, while St. Louis has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last ten at home. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-26-18 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over White Sox/Angels (1:05 EST). The Angels annihilated the White Sox 11-3 yesterday and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair on Thursday afternoon as well. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Covey (4-5, 4.95 ERA) who comes in off a rare gem against the Mariners on Saturday, going 8.1 scoreless, giving up just two hits. It was his longest start of his career and the first time since early June that he’s gone more than five innings. Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into one decent outing. Note that he’s still just 2-4 with a ballooned 6.06 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Nick Tropeano (3-5, 4.58) who returned from the DL after the All Star break to give up two runs over five innings in an unfortunate loss to the Astros on Saturday. Tropeano missed the entire 2017 season due to injury. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA at home this season. With these two volatile starters going head-to-head, everything points to an explosive, higher-scoring “slug-fest” in my opinion. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-23-18 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Tigers/Royals (8:15 EST). A couple of struggling starters collide in the opener of this American League series and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (3-5, 4.67 ERA) who exited his final start before the break early due to a back issue. Before he left that one he gave up one run over two innings. To go along with his unimpressive record and ERA over the first half, Liriano also sports an uninspiring 1.41 WHIP over 79 innings. Note that he’s just 2-3 with a 5.49 ERA in all night games as well. The home side counters with Heath Fillmyer (0-1, 3.45) who has looked decent in his limited time. But while his 3.45 ERA over 15.2 innings looks “ok,” note that his 1.47 WHIP and 7/8 K/W leave everything to be desired. These teams aren’t known for their offensive prowess, but with these two confirmed “gas cans” duelling it out, runs are going to be plentiful. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-23-18 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Nationals/Brewers (8:10 EST). Milwaukee was annihilated 11-2 at home by the Dodgers on Sunday and clearly it’ll be looking for a much better performance out of its starting pitcher in the opener of this series. Washington was busy at home with Atlanta over the weekend and it’ll send veteran Gio Gonzalez to the hill in this one. Gonzalez (6-6, 3.72 ERA) had his Saturday start postponed due to rain. In his final outing before the break he’d give up two runs with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh. He stumbled down the stretch before the break, but I think he’ll rebound here. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (8-3, 3.68) who gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates in his final first half start. Chacin has been sharp this year and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to keep this one competitive. I’ll point out as well that Washington has already seen the total go under the number in 20 of 32 this year when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 (also in 41 of 68 against right-handed starters), while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 22 of 35 when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 and in 27 of 48 home games overall. Looks like we’ll have a bit of a “duel” on our hands in this one, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-21-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Cards/Cubs (7:15 EST). St. Louis won 18-5 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “duel” on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to John Gant (3-3, 3.49 ERA) who has done well filling in for an injured Michael Wacha with a 3.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 45 innings as starter thus far. The home side counters with Mike Montgomery (3-3, 3.91 ERA), who wasn’t perfect over the first half, but likely exceeded expectations overall. I’ll point out that St. Louis has interestingly seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten night games, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 night games and in 30 of 50 against clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-19-18 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* CFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Riders/Ti-Cats (7:30 EST). A couple of 2-2 teams collide on Thursday night and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Saskatchewan is a sizeable underdog in this one, but note that it’s won five of its last seven road games. Zach Collaros has two TD passes and two INT’s this year. So far the ground game is averaging 110 yards per contest, with Jerome Messam leading the way with 110 yards on 32 carries. Receivers Shaquelle Evans and Naaman Roosevelt have combined for 310 receiving yards and two major scores. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli has 1,378 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s so far this season. His favorite targets have been Jalen Saunders and Brandon Banks, who have combined fro 675 receiving yards and two TD’s. Luke Tasker has also excelled with 20 receptions. The Roughriders have QB issues and whoever gets the start of the visitors (possibly Brandon Bridges), I like Saskatchewan to keep this one competitive. With the home side looking to open up the playbook and to push the pace, the Riders will be forced to match that tempo. (additional O/U ATS supporting stats added shortly) Saskatchewan won’t be going down without a fight and it has history on its side, having won four straight in this series. As mentioned off the top, everything points to these clubs battling tooth and nail and for this total to soar over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-19-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 6-9 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Cards/Cubs (7:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and in my opinion, runs would appear to be at an extreme premium. The Cards go with Carlos Martinez (6-5, 3.08 ERA) who picked up a win in his latest start against San Francisco, giving up one run over seven innings. Martinez would post his third straight victory and he has to be feeling confident here as he’s already a respectable 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (6-8, 3.92) who most recently beat the Giants as well, giving up one unearned run off five hits with eight K’s over nine frames in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Hendricks was “on point” inducing 18 swinging strikes off 109 offerings. Note that he owns a 3.18 ERA in all home contests so far this season as well. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two hurlers suggests that we’re going to have a classic “duel” on our hands to open the second half. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-15-18 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Reds/Cardinals (2:15 EST). These teams played to a higher-scoring over on Saturday night, but in my opinion everything points to more of a ‘duel” on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (4-1, 4.43 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Indians on Monday. After a couple of poor starts, there’s no question that the hard-throwing right-hander got back on track in this outing. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (10-3, 2.65) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who has been especially tough at home by going 4-3 with a tiny 1.65 ERA. Note that he’s 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA in all day games as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven “day” games, while St. Louis has seen the total dip below the posted number in 20 of 35 day games this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Yanks/Indians (7:10 EST). Two of the league’s best pitchers go head-to-head in this game, while two of the most prolific line-ups square off in this series. I believe we’ll see these starting pitchers give up a few and I look for this total to sneak over before it’s all said and done. The visitors give the ball to ace Luis Severino (14-2, 2.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings while striking out five in a win over Toronto on Saturday. The hard-throwing right-hander threw 70 of his 97 pitches for strikes. The home side counters with Corey Kluber (12-4, 2.49) who went seven scoreless against the A’s last time out, giving up five hits in what turned out to be a no-decision. As stated off the top, I do recognize that these are two of the league’s best pitchers. But these are also two very talented and dangerous hitting line-ups. Note that New York has in fact seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 30 when the total in the contest is set at 7 or less, while Cleveland has seen the total sail above the posted number in 29 of 43 home games already this season and in 15 of its last 26 when the total is set at 7 or less. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-06-18 | France v. Uruguay OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over France/Uruguay (10:00 AM EST). I’m expecting these two capable countries to put some balls in the back of the net. Uruguay comes in off a win over Portugal, while France took care of business over Argentina to advance to the Quarters. Uruguay will be looking for others to step up here with the news that Edinson Cavani is likely to sit this one out with a leg injury. That means that Cristhian Stuani will be paired with Luis Suarez up front in this one. Keep your eyes on Suarez though, who scored two goals in the group round to move to 53 on the international stage. Antoine Griezmann won the 2016 Euro Golden Boot and he’d notch another one in the most recent victory as well for France. The French would win 4-3 over Argentina and in my opinion, everything points to another high-scoring thriller here as well. France has history working against it this afternoon, as it’s won just one of its last seven matches against Uruguay. Kylian Mbappe has four goals in his last five appearances for the French though and I think he’ll have a productive match here as well. When you add it all up, this one the feel of a wide open “shootout,” rather than a tightly-checked “chess match.” Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 13-18 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Ti-Cats/Riders (9:00 EST). Hamilton will be looking to keep the pedal to the metal in Week 4 and extend its lead in the East. Hamilton wasn’t expected to do much out East, but the Ti-Cats enter this Week 4 matchup sitting at 2-1. Hamilton would spilt a two-game season opening road trip and then return home to beat Winnipeg 31-17 last week as a five-point favorite. Ti-Cats’ QB Jeremiah Masoli, perhaps motivated with Johnny Manziel waiting patiently in the wings for his turn to shine, has in fact dominated himself to open the year. Most recently he threw for 369 yards and a TD. Masoli has now thrown for 300 yards in eight straight games, tying Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo and Edmonton’s Mike Reilly for second most in league history. Hamilton’s ground game looked sharp as well, with Mercer Timmis rushing for two major scores, while Sean Thomas-Erlington had 92 yards on 11 carries. Saskatchewan lost the services of starting QB Zach Collaros and went to Brandon Bridges last week and the result was a 23-17 setback at home to the Alouettes as a ten point favorite. Bridge was pulled at half time after going just 8 of 18 for 111 yards and two INT’s. Bridge should settle down here in his second start of the season though and he will benefit from the friendly confines as well. I’ll point out as well that Hamilton has seen the total go over the posted number in three of its last four road games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 52 points, while Saskatchewan has seen the total eclipse the number in seven of its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my estimation, the conditions are definitely correct for a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-30-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* SUPER TOTAL is on the over Giants/Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). I had a play on the Giants in their 2-1 upset in Arizona last night. While Friday’s game was a pitchers duel, I think that everything points to a “slug-fest” on Saturday. The visitors hand the ball to Derek Rodriguez (2-1, 3.82 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Padres on Sunday. It was by far his best start of the season. Rodriguez enters with serviceable numbers (1.34 WHIP and 28/7 K/W over 30.2 innings.) If he’s had one clear weakness though it’s been his play on the road, 0-1 with a ballooned 5.68 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Shelby Miller (0-1, 12.27) who gave up five runs off six hits with two walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Marlins in his season debut last Monday. While his fastball reached 97.6 MPH, the short-term projections simply don’t look good for Miller, who hasn’t posted a sub 4.00 ERA since 2015. I think these two starters get chased early and I look for this total to indeed soar over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-29-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Red Sox/Yanks (7:05 EST). New York had the night off on Thursday, while Boston was involved in a lower-scoring 4-2 win at home over LA last night. It’s the opener of an important mid-season AL East divisional matchup and in my opinion, everything points to a lower-scoring pitchers duel in the opener. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (9-2, 3.86 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits over four innings in a forgettable loss to the Mariners on Saturday. Outings like that though have been few and far between for Rodriguez this year, so there’s no need to overreact to one poor effort (note that the sub-par showing broke a string of six consecutive starts in which he earned a victory.) Note as well that he’s been particularly sharp on the road by going 4-0 with a 3.57 ERA. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (4-3, 3.18) who took a loss despite allowing just two runs (only one earned) over 5.1 innings against Tampa Bay on Friday. The veteran has looked sharp overall this year and of late, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his last five trips to the mound. Additionally note that the southpaw has been particularly good at home with a 2-1, 2.74 ERA record thus far. I think this one lines up perfectly for a battle into the latter frames by these starters, which will in turn result in a lower-score once it’s all said and done. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Riders/Redblacks (7:30 EST). Two teams gunning for a victory on Thursday night in Week 2 of the Canadian Football League and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Ottawa would finish 8-9-1 last year, which was still good enough for second spot in the East Division. Ottawa though was just 3-5-1 at home in the regular season, an area in which it hopes to approve dramatically in in 2018, starting against the high-flying Roughriders. The Redblacks would ultimately fall to Saskatchewan 31-20 in the Eastern Semi-Final. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris though finished with 457 yards and two TD’s that day. Ottawa also lost to the Roughriders 18-17 in Week 15 of the regular season, but it got some small amount of revenge with a 33-32 victory on the road two weeks later. Harris finished tied for No. 1 with 30 TD strikes in 2017. The Roughriders looked sharp in their 27-19 win over Toronto at home as three point underdogs in Week 1. While the defense did look good at home, I think it’ll have its hands full here against an Ottawa team looking to make some noise on Opening night. Saskatchewan will once again be leaning heavily on QB Zach Collaros, who was 18 of 25 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s. RB Jerome Messam was a standout as well with 72 yards on 21 carries, while also catching two passes. I expect each team to open up the play book and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game come down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-14-18 | Saudi Arabia v. Russia UNDER 2.25 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Saudi Arabia/Russia (8:00 AM EST). Host Russia has the odds stacked against it to advance very far in the World Cup, currently ranked 65th in the FIFA World rankings. I think it’s going to have a few “butterflies” here as it looks for its opponent to make the first mistake. With each side playing to a “war of attrition,” I do indeed expect a classic lower-scoring affair in the opener of the 2018 World Cup. The place will be rocking at the Luzhniki Stadium. Russia isn’t even favored to win Group A (Uruguay is), but it’s a significant favorite here against hopeful Saudi Arabia. Last year Russia hosted the Confederations Cup and it beat New Zealand, before then losing to Portugal and Mexico. Since then though it’s beat South Korea 4-1, while drawing with a talented Spain side. Russia though drew an automatic bid for being host. Saudi Arabia is ranked higher than Russia in the FIFA rankings. The Saudis would end a 12 year absence from the World Cup after a spectacular goal by Fahad Al Muwallad vs. Japan in the Asian prelims. One player to keep your eyes on for Saudi Arabia is Mohammad Al-Sahlawi, who’d finished with 16 goals in the Asian qualifier. Russia enters having lost seven friendlies though and Saudi Arabia will be confident that it can in fact pull of the upset here. Both teams have talent. Both teams have a lot of question marks as well though heading in. As mentioned off the top, I believe each team will be playing it “cautious” to open, looking for the other side to make the first mistake. And in a scenario like that, everything points to a lower-scoring “under” in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-03-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the under Marlins/Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one on Sunday afternoon. Suffice it to say, I expect this total stay below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (2-1, 3.69 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Padres on Tuesday, allowing five runs off seven hits with four K’s over 5.2 innings. The silver lining behind the sub-par effort was that he walked none and was able to induce 12 swings-and-misses. To go along with his respectable ERA, note that Straily also owns a sharp 1.36 WHIP (note that Straily also sports a superb 2.78 ERA on the road thus far.) The home side counters with Matt Koch (3-3, 4.31) who earned a win in his last outing despite not being at his best, allowing five runs over five innings against Cincinnati on Monday. Koch has struggled at times this year, but I’ll point out that the Diamondbacks have seen the total dip below the posted number in 21 of 36 already this season vs. right-handed starters. I’m expecting these two hungry starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result, I do indeed look for this one to stay under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Knights/Capitals (8:05 EST). Game 1 was a barn-burner with the Golden Knights prevailing 6-4. Vegas scored the first goal in Game 2, but then the Capitals would clamp down and in the end earn the 3-2 victory. I had Washington in Game 2 and Alexander Ovechkin and goaltender Braden Holtby, who made perhaps the save of the year, would come through in the end for the visiting side. While Game 2 stayed below the posted number, I think that Game 3 will feature a lot of scoring as each side pushes the pace from start to finish. So far Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is 13-4 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs, while Braden Holtby is 13-7 with a 2.19 GAA. The Golden Knights come into this one averaging 3.06 GPG, while conceding 2.00. The Capitals come in averaging 3.48 GPG while allowing 2.62. I’ll point out though that Vegas has seen the total go over the number in 11 of 16 already this year when playing with two days rest, while Washington has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six already this season when tied in a playoff series. As mentioned off the top, I think that each side will be playing at a frantic pace, which will in turn lead to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the over Marlins/Padres (9:10 EST). While neither of these teams is known for its offensive prowess, I think they’ll combine for more than enough runs to push this total over this low number. The visitors hand the ball to Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 5.22 ERA) who gave up one earned run off three hits over 7.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Washington on Saturday. Chen has looked better of late, but I’ll caution that he’s still 0-2 with a disastrous 10.95 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Jordan Lyles (1-1, 3.83) who was most recently rocked for five runs off seven hits and four walks 4.2 innings in a very fortunate no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Lyles was rocked for two home runs in the setback and that’s now back-to-back shaky outings for the veteran. I don’t trust either of these staters. This number is a little low. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Phillies/Dodgers (7:35 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I still think this total is low. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (6-2, 2.27 ERA) who gave up one run off one hit with three walks while striking out ten over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Saturday. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.86) who will finally return to the rotation after an extended period off from injury. Most recently Kershaw threw a 60-pitch simulated game on Saturday. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia has seen the total go over the number in 13 of its last 20 road games then the total in the contest is set at 7 or less, while LA has seen the total fly above the posted number in eight of ten already this year at home when the total is 7 or less. I think Kershaw comes in with some rust and I look for this total to indeed fly over sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Godo luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Nationals/Braves (7:35 EST). I look for these competent starters to battle into the latter innings and as a result, I expect this total to stay below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to the Tanner Roark (2-4, 3.17 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits with two walks while striking out five over seven innings in a no-decision against the Marlins on Saturday. Roark has now gone three straight games of pitching at least seven frames and he ranks sixth overall in the National League in innings pitched (65.1). To go along with his respectable ERA, note that Roark also sports an elite 0.99 WHIP. The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (5-1, 2.75) who gave up three runs off six hits with four walks while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision against the Red Sox on Saturday. Newcomb uncharacteristically struggled in this outing, but note that previous to that he’d conceded just one run over 25 frames spanning four trips to the hill. Newcomb comes in rested, with two whole extra days off; note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in all “night” contests. I’ll point out as well that Washington has already seen the total go under the number in 11 of 17 against left-handed starters this season, while Atlanta has seen the total dip below the posted number in 19 of 34 against right-handed starters. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-28-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the under Capitals/Knights (8:05 EST). The Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 12-6 with a 2.04 GAA in the playoffs this year, while the Golden Knights’ Marc-Andre Fleury is 12-3 with a 1.68 GAA. I base my selections on many different things. Sometimes it’s about scheduling, or revenge, or trends, or the overall situation etc. This one is based mainly on common sense. I think the long lay off between series will cause each of these high-powered teams to come out with some rust to open Game 1. And that’s all these World class goaltenders are going to need to turn this one into a classic “battle” in net. For the record, Washington enters averaging 3.47 goals and conceding 2.47 in the playoffs thus far, while Las Vegas is averaging just 2.87 goals and allowing 1.80 in the postseason. I’ll point out though that Washington has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest, while LV has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight when playing with three or more days of rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 EST). I had a play on Houston in Game 4. The Rockets put on one of the most impressive playoff defensive performances of all time in that one. However, I believe that Golden State is going to push the pace of this one in an attempt to wrench back control of this series after that humbling defeat at home. The Rockets are going to have to match pace. So far the Warriors are shooting 47.1 percent from the floor in the playoffs, while hitting only 33.8 percent from range. Stephen Curry was a bright spot in the Game 4 loss with 28 points, while Kevin Durant would add 27 points and 12 boards. The Rockets are hitting only 44.5 percent from the floor in the postseason, including just 35.1 percent from three-point land. James Harden had 30 points in the latest victory, while Chris Paul added 27. I’ll point out though that the Warriors have seen the total go over the number in 13 of 21 already this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while the Rockets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last seven after allowing 95 points or less in their previous outing. These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but each to this point has struggled to find its stroke in the playoffs. With so much on the line and with each side pushing from the opening tip until the final horn, I’m finally expecting these clubs to play to a higher-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 206 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Cavs/Celtics (8:35 EST). The first three games of this series went “under” the number, while Game 4 went “over.” For a number of different reasons I think that Game 5 will be a very defensive affair as each side desperately claws for the advantage. So far it would seem that the home floor advantage will be significant in this series. While that trend may or may not hold true in Game 5, I do definitely expect the home side to play with a renewed sense of urgency, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Cleveland is so far shooting 46.3 percent in the playoffs, including only 34.9 percent from range. LeBron James has been unstoppable after his Game 1 sub-par performance and he had 44 points in the latest victory. Kyle Korver added 14 of the bench. Boston is shooting 44.4 percent from the floor in the postseason, including 35.2 percent from range. Jaylen Brown was a bright spot in the latest setback with 25 points, while Terry Rozier added 16 points, six boards and 11 assists. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight on the road, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Clearly Boston is not going to be able to get into a “shootout” with “The King” and expect to win this contest, so with the home side indeed trying to control the pace of this one, I’m banking on this total staying well below the posted number. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-23-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Caps/Lightning (8:05 EST). Washington held on for a 3-0 win in Game 6. This has been a difficult series to predict, but with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line, I think each team plays it “cautious” in Game 7. Washington goes with Braden Holtby in net and he’s 11-6 with a 2.16 GAA thus far in the Playoffs, while Tampa goes with Andrei Vasilevskly, who is 11-5 with a 2.55 GAA in the postseason. Washington is 28-22 on the road overall this year, averaging 3.04 goals and conceding 3.10 in those contests. During the playoffs though the Capitals have been averaging 3.44 goals and allowing 2.61. Tampa Bay is 35-15 at home this season, averaging 3.48 goals and conceding 2.94. During the playoffs the Lightning are averaging 3.13 goals and allowing 2.75. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the league, but neither would have gotten this far without its respective goaltender. As stated off the top, I predict that each team comes out with a “cautious” approach, waiting for the other to make the first mistake. And in a scenario like that, I expect these competent netminders to be the main story lines in tomorrow’ summaries. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under D-Backs/Brewers (1:10 EST). I think these two competent hurlers battle into the latter frames and as a result, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (4-3, 3.78 ERA) who most recently allowed three runs (just one earned) off four hits with six K’s over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. So far the hard-throwing right-hander has 49 K’s over 52.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Brent Suter (3-3, 4.72) who remains in the rotation because of injury. In his last outing Suter gave up one run off five hits and a walk with six K’s over 5.2 innings in a victory over Minnesota on Friday. I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 “day” games already this year, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in a whopping 12 of 14 day contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Rockets/Warriors (8:05 EST). This series is all tied up at 1 game apiece after the Rockets claimed a 127-105 victory in Game 2. It’ll be the exact same game-plan for Houston in Game 3 as what it deployed in Game 2, as the Rockets would get out and push the pace from the very first tip. So far Houston is averaging 45.3 percent from the floor, including 35.6 percent from range in the playoffs. However in Game 2 the Rockets shot 51.1 percent from the field, while hitting 16 of 42 three point attempts. James Harden and Eric Gordon each had 27 points, while PJ Tucker added 22 in the dominant victory. Golden State is hitting 47.3 percent from the floor, including 33.2 percent from range in the postseason. The Warriors would go on to shoot 45.9 percent in the Game 2 loss, including converting just 9 of 30 from behind the 3-point line. Kevin Durant led the way in the losing cause with 38 points, while Stephen Curry added just 16. (additional supporting O/U ATS stats/trends added shortly) Golden State is going to benefit from the three days off of rest, while also being able to play this important contest in front of the home town crowd. But the last thing the Rockets can do is take the foot off the gas either. With each side pushing the pace, look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Indians/Astros (8:05 EST). After yesterday’s higher-scoring 5-4 Indians win, I’m expecting more of a “pitchers duel” in the finale of this series. The tribe hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (5-2, 3.66 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs off six hits with four K’s over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Tigers on Monday. Despite the setback, it was Carrasco’s second straight quality start and his sixth in nine trips to the hill this year. The home side counters with Lance McCullers (5-2, 3.63) who comes in off an unfortunate loss as well, giving up two runs off four hits and two walks with six K’s over six innings against the Angels on Monday. McCullers has now posted five quality starts out of his past six trips to the mound. So far over 52 innings of work, the hard-throwing right-hander has 58 K’s. I think it’s worth to note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight “night” games, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 22 of 29 night contests already this year. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 EST). So far LeBron James has more points, assists, steals, blocks and every other stat in this series than the rest of his other starting teammates combined. If Cleveland has any shot at making it back into this series, “The King” is going to need a couple of his guys to “step up” in Game 3. So far I’ve played Cleveland over the first two games of this series, and I’m obviously 0-2. However, with Cleveland's backs against the wall I do now definitely feel that the Cavs will answer the bell with their best overall effort yet. Boston has been playing unbelievably and no one is more surprised than myself by its performance. But with the home side looking to push the pace of Game 3 from start to finish, the Celtics are going to be forced to match that effort. The C’s would outscore the Cavs 36-22 in the third quarter in Game 2. So far, Boston is shooting 45 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including 35.8 percent in the series. Jaylen Brown had 23 points and seven boards in the latest victory, Terry Rozier added 18 points and big man Al Horford continued to be a difference maker as well with 15 points and 10 boards. Six different Boston players scored in double figures in Game 2 James exploded for 42 points, 10 boards and 12 assists in the Game 2 setback and there’s no question that James will be expecting his teammates to step up and respond in kind in Game 3 (note: Kevin Love added 22 points and 15 boards. It’s interesting to note that LeBron James is 6-0 when down 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals throughout his career. I think the shift in venue is the difference maker as far as the total is concerned tonight, as all signs point to a shootout between these two hungry teams. However, the Cavs are a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS at home this year (regular and post season). In conclusion, no way the Cavs go quietly here. The team's guard trio of Hill (3 of 8 / 1-4 on threes), Korver (4 of 11 / 2 of 7) and Smith (2 of 16 / 0 of 7) can't possibly be this bad again at home. The Cavs are an 'ugly' 14 of 57 on threes (24.6%) as a team this series, after shooting 37.2 percent during the regular season. The Cavs have struggled ATS at home but have averaged 110.3 PPG all season on their homecourt. After averaging a pathetic 88.5 PPG in losing Games 1 and 2, anyone really think the Cavs won't 'light up the scoreboard' in this one? Of course, considering the Cavs are allowing 108.8 PPG at home, one can see why their ATS mark is so poor. However, that means the "average" final score of a Cleveland home game is 219.1 PPG or about two 'TDs' higher than this total! Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-17-18 | Lightning v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the over Lightning/Capitals. Tampa has made this a series after its 4-2 Game 3 victory. The Lightning though can ill afford to take the foot off the gas, as a loss would drop them to 3-1 in the series, a hole likely too deep to dig out of. Washington is going to have to match pace with its hungry counterpart tonight as it looks to regain the offensive form which saw it total nine goals over the first two games on the road. These are two of the best netminders in the league going head-to-head, but everything points to a wide-open “goal-fest” in my opinion. So far the Lightnings’ Andrei Vasilevskly is 9-4 with a 2.68 GAA in the postseason, while the Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 10-4 with a 2.18 GAA. Tampa is 29-17 on the road overall this year, averaging 3.53 goals and conceding 2.74 in those contests. Washington is 31-17 at home overall this season, averaging 3.35 goals and conceding 2.63 in those games. I’ll point out as well that Tampa has already seen the total go over the number in 23 of 38 this year after a victory by two goals or more, while the Caps have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last seven after a loss by two goals or more. With each team pushing from start to finish, expect this one to soar over the total sooner than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-15-18 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under A’s/Red Sox (7:10 EST). I think these two competent pitchers will battle into the latter frames. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Mengden (2-4, 4.06 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate loss to the Astros on Wednesday, giving up two runs off six hits while striking out four over 6.2 innings. Mengden has now given up two or fewer runs with either one or zero walks in four of his last five trips to the mound. Note that he also owns an elite 33/5 K/W on the season. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 4.58) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Yanks on Thursday, allowing only one hit and striking out eight over five innings. After back-to-back duds, Rodriguez got back on track in a big way in this one. Note that the hard-throwing southpaw already has 47 K’s over his 37.1 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 this year against lefties, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 “night” games. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-11-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 45 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under Capitals/Lightning (8:05 EST). Tampa took two of three in the regular season between these clubs. The Capitals needed six games to get by the Penguins last round, while the Bolts edged the Bruins in five. The Lightning come in focused, while Washington comes in motivated after finally getting the monkey off its back with its win over Pittsburgh, a team which had knocked it out of the playoffs in each of the last two years. Each teams possesses unbelievable offensive depth, experience and talent. But the reason these two clubs are where they are right now is because of their goaltending to this point. The Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 8-3 with a 2.04 GAA and he easily outplayed his counterpart in Matt Murray last time out. The Lightnings’ Andrei Vasilevskly is 8-2 with a 2.20 GAA and he’d also be the difference maker in the last round, getting the better of Bruins’ veteran Tuukka Rask. From a trend based stand point, this one sets up well for a lower-scoring goaltenders battle as well, as note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in seven of 11 road games this year when the total in the contest was set at six or more, while Tampa has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five when playing with three days rest. I think each side comes out a little flat footed, as fatigue becomes a major factor at this time of year. With each team playing it a bit cautious to start this series, it leaves the door open for the netminders to become the main focal point in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-11-18 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Mets/Phillies (7:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head and in my opinion, this one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. The Mets hand the ball to Stephen Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over six innings while striking out five against Colorado on Saturday. It was easily his best start of the year and I think he’ll build off it. Despite a pedestrian 4.23 ERA, Matz does own a solid 10.1 K/9. The home side counters with ace Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15) who gave up one run off two hits while walking two and striking out two over six innings against Washington on Sunday. Arrieta’s strikeout numbers are way down, but his 60.4 ground ball rate is up significantly. I’ll point out that New York has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last nine against the division, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight against clubs with winning records. I think these two pitchers battle deep and this one falls under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-10-18 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the under Giants/Phillies (1:05 EST). It takes a lot off offense to score ten runs, especially in the National League. While neither of these starters instils much confidence, I still think that this number is a little high. The visitors turn to Ty Blach (3-3, 3.60 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits over 7.2 innings while striking out two in a win over Atlanta on Saturday. Blach threw 71 of his 100 pitches for strikes to post his fourth quality outing of the campaign. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (2-4, 5.14) who comes in off a gem himself over the Nationals on Saturday, allowing one run off one hit over five innings. Velasquez struggled in three straight outings previous to this decent performance, so while I’m not going to overreact, there’s still no question that it was a big step in the correct direction. I’ll point out as well that San Fran has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 18 against right-handed starters already this year, while Philly has seen the total dip below the posted number in 45 of its last 78 against southpaws. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-08-18 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 207.5 | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Jazz/Rockets (8:05 EST). If you’ve bought this three-game report, then you have access to my analysis on the Jazz. I don’t think that Utah is going to win Game 5 outright, but I do expect Utah to play very competitively. The Jazz were shutdown at home by Houston in Game 4 and because of that, I’m expecting the usually defensive minded visitors to instead push the pace of this one from start to finish. I like the Jazz, but Houston won’t be rolling over obviously as it looks to end this series tonight as it looks to avoid an awkward Game 6 back in Utah. As far as I’m concerned, the overall conditions of this one just scream “over.” I’ll point out as well though that from a trend based stand point, this one also sets up extremely well for a higher-scoring shootout. As note that the Jazz have seen the total go over the number in five of their last eight when trailing in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last 11 when leading in a playoff series. I think this number is indeed a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-08-18 | Twins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the under Twins/Cards (1:15 EST). I think these competent starters will battle deep and I look for this total to fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (2-2, 4.10 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up five runs (just three earned) over 5.1 innings, the silver lining being that he’d strike out a season-high eight and walk only two. Odorizzi was coming off a superb effort/victory over the Reds, but he’d stumble a bit in this one. Note that the hard-throwing right-hander sports a solid 1.39 WHIP thus far over 37.1 innings of work. The home side counters with ace Carlos Martinez (3-1, 1.40 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks while striking out five over 7.1 innings against the White Sox on Wednesday. His 9.0 K/9 is modest for his standards, but Martinez’s peripherals all suggest that the good times should continue to roll. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota has already seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of 12 day games this year, while St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in three of four already this season as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-07-18 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 113 | 34 h 4 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Caps/Pens (7:00 EST). For the most part Washington goaltender Braden Holtby has looked a lot better than Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray. That hasn’t always been the case historically though between these competent net-minders. The Pens will be looking to “shore things up” on the defensive though as they face elimination and with the home side putting a concerted effort onto that end of the ice, I do indeed expect a classic “goaltenders battle” in Game 6. The Pens are on the brink of elimination and they’re going to be risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight. Washington is on the brink of advancing, but it has a long and recent history of complete failure in this position (2015 East Conf Finals 3-1 lead on the Rangers, only to fall 4-3 in the most recent.) The conditions definitely set up for a more of a defensive battle. I’ll also point out though that Washington has seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine when leading in a playoff series, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four when trailing in a playoff series. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-05-18 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Pens/Caps (7:00 EST). These teams are all tied up at two games apiece. Game 5 is an important one and I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair as each side pushes the pace in search of a crucial victory. Note that Pittsburgh comes in ranked as the No. 1 offense in the playoffs with an average of 3.80 GPG, while conceding 2.60. Goaltender Matt Murray was 10-12 with a 3.05 GAA on the road this year and note that vs. the Capitals he’s just 4-4 with a 3.26 GAA. Washington is averaging 3.50 goals in the playoffs and conceding 2.80. Goaltender Braden Holtby is 6-3 with a 2.07 GAA overall in the playoffs, but just 8-11 with a 2.90 GAA lifetime against the Pens. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in 18 of 29 this year after a victory by two goals or more, while Washington has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 31 of 50 against winning clubs this season. For all the reasons listed above, play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-01-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 226.5 | Top | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the under Pelicans/Warriors (10:30 EST). I had a play on New Orleans in Game 1 and while the Pelicans did look good after one quarter, by half time they were down by 19 points. Golden State would then never look back, shooting the lights out in the 123-101 victory. The total in that one went over the number by a single point. Stephen Curry is expected back in the line-up as well for the defending champs, but regardless of that fact, I believe that Game 2 will be much more of a defensive affair. New Orleans got tricked into playing the Warriors’ style of game and it just wasn’t able to keep pace. The Pelicans got into a shooting match when they should have been trying to work it more into big man Anthony Davis. Sweeping the Blazers did not help New Orleans at all, but with that awkward first game out of the way, I expect to see a much more focused and confident Pelicans side. Give the Warriors credit obviously, as they didn’t look overly impressive in their five-game series victory over the Spurs. New Orleans looked like a deer “caught in the headlights,” but I’m expecting a much better effort this time around. Especially on the defensive end of the court, as clearly New Orleans can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Warriors. The situation/conditions point to the under as the correct call in Game 2. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 210 | Top | 101-117 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under 76ers/Celtics (8:00 EST). If Boston has any shot in Game 1, or this series, it’s going to need to once again step up on the defensive end. After an exhausting seven game opening round series victory over the Bucks, the last thing the Celtics can afford to do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the well rested and offensively adept 76ers. Joel Embiid averaged 18.7 points, 10.3 boards and 3.0 blocks against the Heat in the 76ers’ 4-1 opening series victory. Rookie Ben Simmons had 18.2 points, 10.6 boards and 9.0 assists. Boston was undefeated at home in its series win over the Bucks, so despite being tired, it also has to be feeling pretty confident tonight. Al Horford had 18.1 points, 8.7 boards and 3.3 assists per game while Jaylen Brown added 17.9 points. Horford is a big body who is going to be able to man up and test Embiid and I think he’ll be a big difference maker once again in this series. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven when playing with three or more days rest, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly eight of its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU home victories. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-28-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 32 h 22 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the under Sharks/Knights (8:05 EST). Las Vegas has been a truly amazing team. Without question the best expansion team in the history of sports. The Golden Knights embarrassed the Sharks 7-0 in Game 1. San Jose will be risking life and limb now trying to slow down Vegas, but the Golden Knights are equally adept at playing a “lock down” style of game as well, as evidenced by their low-scoring four-game series sweep of the LA Kings in the first round. The Sharks are now 22-22 on the road, averaging 2.68 goals and conceding 2.93 in those games. Goaltender Martin Jones is now 4-1 with a 2.05 GAA in the postseason this year after allowing four goals in the Game 1 blowout loss. There’s no reason not to think that Jones won’t be able to bounce back here though. The Golden Knights are 32-12 at home, averaging 3.55 goals and conceding 2.34 in those contests. Netminder Marc-Andre Fleury is 5-0 with a 0.54 GAA in the postseason thus far. I’ll point out as well that San Jose has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 22 this year following a loss by two goals or more, while Las Vegas has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of 28 this season following a victory by two goals or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 205 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is the under Bucks/Celtics (7:05 EST). So far the home team has come out on top in each of the first four contests. Without the offensive depth to hang with Milwaukee though, I expect the Celtics to try and slow the pace of Game 5 down. Milwaukee has so far shot 54.2 percent in this series, including 43.6 percent from range. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks actually trailed in the final minute of Game 4, before the versatile super star secured the win with a last second tip-in. In all he’d finish with 27 points, seven boards and five assists. Note though that Eric Bledsoe struggled again with nine points and five assists. Boston is down a couple of key pieces, but it’s defensive core remains in tact. The Celtics have shot just 44.2 percent from the floor so far in this series. Jaylen Brown was a bright spot in a losing cause with 34 points and eight boards, while Jayson Tatum added 21 points. So far all four games of this series have gone “over” the number. But I firmly believe that Game 5 sets up as a classic defensive affair. Fatigue is also an issue at this point of the Opening Round series. The O/U ATS trends do not support this play at all, as these two teams have played to a surprising amount of “overs” of late and overall this season. However, this play is not based on past trends, it’s based on the here and now and the overall situation. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-23-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Bruins/Leafs (7:00 EST). Toronto hung on for a 4-3 win in Boston in Game 5 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done on home ice as well and push this series to a conclusive Game 7. I’m also expecting these competent goalkeepers to be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. Boston had a 3-1 series lead, but it failed to the job done last time out. David Backes would score his second of the series in a losing cause. The Bruins are 23-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.91 goals and conceding 2.60 in those contests. Goaltender Tuukka Rask gave up four goals on 13 shots in Game 5 before getting yanked. Rask is 13-10 with a 2.51 GAA on the road this year. The Leafs are 30-13 at home, averaging 3.30 goals and conceding 2.65 in those contests. Frederik Andersen stopped 42 of 45 shots that he faced to improve to 2-2 with a 3.86 GAA so far in this playoffs. Andersen has to be feeling confident here though as he’d finish 23-10 with a 2.64 GAA at home. Additionally I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 24 this year after allowing four goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven home games when the total in the contest is set at 6 or higher. With so much on the line for each side and with neither wanting to make any major mistakes, everything points to a classic goaltenders battle in Game 6. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 204.5 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* O/U ODDDSMAKERS ERROR is on the over Cavs/Pacers (8:35 EST). This is a big game. Indiana will be trying desperately to take a 3-1 series lead, while the Cavaliers will be laying everything on the line in an attempt even it up. The Cavaliers looked great after the first half of Game 3, but the Pacers turned up the Heat on the defensive end and somehow managed the 92-90 victory. LeBron James was great in a losing cause with 28 points and 12 boards, but the rest of his team will be extra motivated here after letting The King down once again. Note that the Cavs average 110.9 PPG in the regular season and conceded 109.9. Indiana has to be feeling confident. The Pacers are a versatile team and I think they can adjust and play any style. Note that Indiana finished by averaging 105.6 points and conceding 104.2 in the regular season. I’ll point out as well that the Cavs have seen the total go over over the number in eight of 12 already this year after playing to three or more consecutive unders and in 22 of 35 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Indiana has seen the total go over the posted number in four of its last six after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest. With the visitors pushing the pace from start to finish and the home side forced to match, all signs point to this one sailing above the number as it comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-21-18 | Devils v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the under Devils/Lightning (3:05 EST). When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number. Tampa comes in off a hard-fought 3-1 win in Game 4 to grab a 3-1 series lead and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined score here as well. New Jersey comes in having gone 21-22 on the road, averaging 2.98 GPG and conceding 3.19 in those contests. Corey Schneider is 6-11 with a 3.25 GAA on the road, but he has gone 5-6 in 12 career games against Tampa Bay with a 2.94 GAA. Keith Kinkaid is 14-9 with a 2.97 GAA on the road and 2-4 with 3.33 GAA lifetime against the Bolts. Tampa Bay is 31-12 at home so far this year, averaging 3.60 GPG in those contests and conceding 2.91. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly stopped 27 of 28 shots last time out to move to 3-1 with a 2.26 GAA in the playoffs thus far. Note that he was 26-9 with a 2.84 GAA at home this season. I’ll point out as well that New Jersey has in fact seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing, while TB has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after a win by two goals or more. I believe the conditions are finally right for a tight-checking, lower-scoring goaltenders battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is the UNDER 76ers/Heat (2:35 EST). So far I’m 2-1 in this series, taking the 76ers over the first three games thus far. It’s going to be an all out war in Game 4, as Miami looks to control the pace of this one. Suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end, I’m expecting this total to sneak below the posted number. I said Joel Embiid would be a difference maker in Game 3 and the big man would not disappoint, logging 30 minutes and going for 23 points, seven boards, four assists and three blocks. Philadelphia shot a blistering 50 percent from the floor, including an unreal 52.9 percent from range. Suffice it to say again, I am not expecting the 76ers to match those extremely efficient numbers against a Heat side which will be doubling down with its defensive effort. I also predicted that Dwayne Wade would have a major letdown in Game 3 after his historic performance in Game 2 which saw him score 28 points, grab seven boards, three assists and two steals. Wade would indeed have a letdown in Game 3, finishing with eight points, five assists, two boards, one steal, one block and four turnovers. Goran Dragic was a bright spot for Miami in a losing cause with 23 points. Miami was competitive in the first half of Game 3, but came out completely flat in the second. The Heat though will be risking life and limb today to try and even things up and I expect a full four quarter effort. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten after a win by ten points or more, while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 15 this year already when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-19-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under Bruins/Leafs (7:05 EST). It’s the all important Game 4. Boston wants to take a strangle-hold on the series before heading home, while the Leafs will be leaving everything on the ice in an attempt to even it up. Fatigue sets in at this point and in my opinion, everything points to a classic lower-scoring under between these two hungry clubs. Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask is 2-1 with a 2.71 GAA and .911 save percentage thus far. Note that he’s still 16-7-2 with a 2.14 GAA lifetime against the Leafs. Toronto net minder Frederik Andersen is now 20-14 with a 2.53 GAA lifetime in the postseason and 10-1-0 with a 2.09 GAA lifetime against the Bruins. I’ll point out as well that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 23 this year after allowing four goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring four goals or more in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-15-18 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 217 | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 76 h 19 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Wolves/Rockets (9:00 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun offense” and very little defense being played. Despite that being the truth, I believe that Minnesota will be risking life and limb tonight in trying to slow this game down whenever possible so as to take the Rockets our of their “comfort zone.” Minnesota beat Denver in OT in the final game of the season to sneak in the playoffs. The Wolves come in averaging 109.5 PPG and conceding 107.3. Jimmy Butler is back in the line-up and he averages 22.2 points and 4.9 assists per game. The Rockets average 112.4 PPG and they concede 108.9. James Harden leads the team with 30.4 points and 8.8 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in three of its last nine when playing on three or more days rest, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number five of its last seven in the same position. With the visitors doing everything they can to slow Game 1 down, look for this one to sneak under the posted number at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-15-18 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the over Rangers/Astros (8:05 EST). These teams combined for 11 runs last night and I think we’ll see another high-scoring affair here as well. The visitors hand the ball to the venerable Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.64 ERA) who pitched the final three innings in Tuesday’s 11-1 loss to LA. Colon has now become a temporary rotation filler for starter Doug Fister, who has a hip issue. Texas has nothing to lose right now, sitting at 26th in the league in team pitching with a collective 4.93 ERA. The home side counters with the equally as venerable Justin Verlander (2-0, 1.45) who went seven scoreless against the Twins on Monday, allowing four hits, one walk while also posting nine K’s. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Verlander, so I won’t bother. This selection is based primarily on the fact that I expect Colon to implode and get the hook early. Note as well that Texas has seen the total go over the number in five of eight already this year against clubs with winning records, while Houston has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of its last seven after allowing six or more runs in its previous contest. Everything points to this one eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-14-18 | Rockies v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the under Rockies/Nationals (1:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, all signs point to a classic “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (1-2, 5.63 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs off ten hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Monday. Gray has two poor starts and one gem so far this season. Note he was 5-3 with a 4.06 ERA on the road last year and 3-0 with a 4.00 ERA in all “day” games. Note that Colorado slugger Charlie Blackmon remains out for this one as well. The home side counters with ace Max Scherzer (2-1, 0.90) who gave up just two hits over nine shutout innings, while also striking out ten in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Scherzer enters on top form and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be carrying that momentum over here. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I look for these two to battle deep and for this total to ultimately fall under the posted number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-13-18 | Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under Flyers/Penguins (7:00 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 of this series and that would unfortunately turn out to be a loser in the Penguins’ 7-0 destruction of the Flyers. Philadelphia will be laying everything it has on the line tonight to atone for that pathetic effort and to try to steal Game 2 so as to wrest back the home ice advantage. The goaltender matchup tonight features Brian Elliot of the Flyers, who is 23-18 with a 2.66 GAA, against Matt Murray, who is 27-19 with a 2.92 GAA. Philadelphia is 20-22 on the road, averaging 2.95 goals and conceding 3.00. Pittsburgh is 31-11 at home, averaging 3.71 goals and conceding 2.62 in those contests. I’ll point out though that the Flyers have seen the total go under the number in ten of 16 this year after scoring one goal or less in their previous outing, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring six or more goals in its previous contest, while also shutting out its opponent at the same time. I think the conditions are right for a much more defensive affair in Game 2 of this Opening Round series. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-11-18 | Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PEFECT STORM is on the under Flyers/Penguins (7:00 EST). Pittsburgh swept the season 4-0 this year. Philadelphia will send out Brian Elliot between the pipes and he went 23-18 with a 2.66 GAA, while the home side counters with Matt Murray, who was 27-19 with a 2.92 GAA. Philadelphia was 20-21 on the road, averaging 3.02 goals and conceding 2.90 in those contests. Elliot has for the most part been spectacular whenever he’s faced the Penguins, going 7-5 with a 2.88 GAA lifetime. Pittsburgh is 30-11 at home, averaging 3.63 goals and conceding 2.68 in those contests. Note that Murray is 3-2 with a 3.00 GAA lifetime against the Flyers. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five in the first four of the playoffs, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five when playing with three or more days rest. These were a couple of the highest scoring teams in the league, but I’m expecting more of a defensive battle to open the playoffs. With these two competent goaltenders going head-to-head, everything does indeed point to the under as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-09-18 | Rays v. White Sox OVER 8 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over Rays/White Sox (2:10 EST). Each starter in this one has gotten out to an inauspicious start to the 2018 MLB campaign and I believe they’re going to get chased early today as well. And as a result, I look for this one to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (0-0, 6.55 ERA), who was fortunate to receive a second straight no-decision to open the year after getting rocked for four runs off six hits with three walks over five innings against the Yankees on Tuesday. Archer was 10-12 with a 4.07 ERA last year, including a poor 5-6 with a 4.97 ERA on the road. The home side counters with confirmed “gas gan” Miguel Gonzalez (0-1, 9.00), who was shelled for six runs off eight hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Tuesday. Gonzalez was 8-13 with a 4.62 ERA last year, including a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.10 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, “recent form” is often the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests were in line for a real “slugfest” on Monday afternoon. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |