Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-21 | Hawaii v. UC-Davis -1 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on UC-Davis at 7:00 ET. The class of the Big West this season is clearly UC-Santa Barbara, which is 1-4 overall, including 11-3 in league play. The Big West tourney will be played Mar 9-13 in Las Vegas but first there's the final weekend of regular season play. The 10-8 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8-8 in Big West) and the 8-6 UC Davis Aggies (5-3 Big West) meet Friday at the Pavilion in Davis, Ca. Eran Ganot's Hawaii team is led by two returning players and two transfers. Guard Webster (12.4 & 3.4) and the 6-7 Jardine (11.6 & 5.6) are the top returning players but also note that the 7-0 Colina is averaging 6.0 & 5.4 at center (off the bench), after averaging 1.6 & 1.6 last season. The two key transfers are the 6-8 Jean-Marie (12.3 & 4.7) and guard Madut (10.9 & 4.3). Jim Les played and coached at Bradley (nine years) but is in his 10th season at UC-Davis. He won 20-plus games three times in a four-season span (2015-15 thru 2017-18) but the Aggies followed with 11-20 and 14-18 seasons the previous two years. This year's team has been greatly affected by COVID but seems to be coming together (more later). Les was a terrific guard at Bradley (MVC player of the year in 1986) and his current team has FOUR guards averaging in double digits. Manjon (15.9-29.3.4) and Pepper (14.7 & 5.1) are two of the Big West's best guards plus Squire (12.1-3.3-2.8) and Fuller (11.5 & 3.7) are no slouches. The 6-7 Koehler (11.5 & 5.5) and the 6-9 Anigwe (6.5 & 4.9) are the top frontcourt contributors. Hawaii has been hovering around .500 for most of the year and has had trouble staying on the right side of the 'Mendoza line' UC-Davis did not play from Dec 5 through Jan 24 before of COVID protocols and when the Aggies returned, they lost FOUR of five. However, UC-Davis enters this contest on a FIVE-game winning streak and gets to finish its season at home with back-to-back home games with Hawaii. A 2-0 sweep could earn the Aggies the No. 2 seed in the upcoming Big West tourney. First things FIRST. Expect UC-Davis to win this one and the pointspread means a "W" is almost a guaranteed cover! Good luck...Larry |
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03-05-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan -2 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET. The 2021 Mid-American Conference men's basketball tournament is scheduled to be held at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio, from March 11-13. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, only the top EIGHT teams qualify. Two schools that will NOT be headed to Cleveland are 5-12 Eastern Michigan (2-11 in the MAC) and 5-12 Western Michigan (4-11 in the MAC). Tonight's contest will conclude the current season for both schools. The Eastern Michigan Eagles were scheduled to host the Western Michigan Broncos back on Jan 19 but that game was postponed, meaning this will be the only meeting this season between the rivals. Eastern Michigan head coach Rob Murphy is in his 10th season(two CIT appearances and one in the CBI but no NCCAA) at Ypsilanti but despite returning four starters, the Eagles will finish with the worst record of his tenure at Eastern Michigan. 6-8 senior Groce leads the team in scoring (15.3) and rebounding (6.6), while junior guard McBride (13.6) and senior guard Montero (12.5 & 5.5) give EMU a solid backcourt duo. Steve Hawkins spent 17 seasons at Kalamazoo (seven division titles / two NCAA appearances) but was let go after last season's 13-19 finish (Broncos were just 8-24 the year before). His assistant, Thomas Kelley was promoted. Kelley played at Michigan State from 1995-99 and was a part of Izzo's first Final Four team as a fifth-year senior in 1998-99. Obviously, "Season One" has NOT gone well (see above). The Bronco's top-scorer is guard White (14.3), while the 6-9 Lee (12.9 & 7.1) and the 6-8 Wright (8.5 & 5.4) are the best frontcourt players. Here's the rub. Western Michigan wraps up a very disappointing season with this home game vs Eastern Michigan but the Broncos can finish on an uptick, having won at Northern Illinois on Tuesday. The LAST thing Kelley wants in his first season is to lose at home (in the final game of the season) to rival Eastern Michigan, a team which comes in still looking for its first road win of the season. Bottom line is this. EMU was 4-4 back on Jan 14 but has lost seven games to COVID, while losing EIGHT of the nine games played in that span (win came over Northern Illinois which is 2-16, including 1-12 in the MAC). EMU is 0-8 on the road, losing by an average of 20.3 PPG (closest loss came by 11 points!). Good luck...Larry |
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03-04-21 | Austin Peay v. Eastern Kentucky -2 | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (OVC) is on Eastern Kentucky at 10:30 ET. Belmont (24-3 / 18-2 in the OVC) is the overwhelming favorite to win the OVC tourney but the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (21-6 / 15-5) could be a surprise team. The Colonels open tourney play against Austin Peay Governors (14-12 / 10-10 in the OVC) Thursday from the Ford Center (Evansville, In). The teams split their two meetings this season, with the road team coming away with the wins. The Governors are led by the 6-5 Taylor (21.7 & 11.0) and the 6-8 Peake (10.6 & 5.2) in the frontcourt. FIVE guards chip in between 5.4 and 9.6 PPG, led by Adams (9.6), Gee (9.0- am]nd Paez (8.9). The Colonels are led by 6-9 junior King (15.2 & 6.3) and freshman PG Green (15.0-3.4-5.1). Guard Lewis (11.4 & 5.1) plus the 6-7 Moreno (10.4 & 4.7) also add double digits in points. Speaking of points, Eastern Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in averaging 82.9 PPG. Austin Peay comes in on a three-game slide, while Eastern Kentucky is playing its best ball of the season, winning SIX of its last seven (scored 80-plus points in all six wins, averaging 87.0 PPG). Eastern Kentucky head coach A.W. Hamilton had a legendary career as a high school coach at Hargrove Military Academy (Google, if interested) and after going 6-12 in OVC play his first year, went 12-6 last year. This year's team is 15-5 in league play and comes in "on a roll." Talk about "heading in the right direction." Want more? At 16-8-1 ATS on the season, Eastern Kentucky is one of the more profitable teams in the country. Cha-Ching! Good luck...Larry |
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. Following a long shutdown due to COVID-19, Baylor won 'ugly' against lowly Iowa State on Feb 23 and then suffered its first loss of the season on Saturday at Kansas, falling 71-58. Baylor fell to No. 3 in the new AP poll on Monday (had been No. 2 in EVERY previous poll) but on Tuesday night, the Bears (now 19-1 / 11-2 in the Big 12) looked every bit the part of a national title contender with a gritty 94-89 overtime win at No. 6 West Virginia. Oklahoma St entered the top-25 on Feb 8 at No. 23 for the first time since Feb of 2015. However, the Cowboys fell out of the next two polls, despite not losing. A new poll came out Monday and the Cowboys were ranked 17th. The Cowboys celebrated that night, beating "Bedlam" rival Oklahoma 79-75 in Stillwater (had won at Norman 94-90 in OT on Saturday. Baylor's Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and has made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine). Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) from last year's team but the strength of Baylor's team this season is centered around its guards. Butler's (16.9-3.2-5.0) the best of the group but don't look past Teague (14.6 & 4.2), Mitchell (13.8 & 5.6 APG), Flagler (10.2) or Mayer (8.1) The 6-5 Vital (5.9 & 6.0) plays like a power forward and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 7.3 & 5,7 plus the 6-10 Thamba adds 4.0 & 4.4. Mike Boynton took over in Stillwater when Brad Underwood left for Illinois and in his first three seasons, the Cowboys were an underwhelming 51-49. However, led by super-frosh Cade Cunningham, the Cowboys are 17-6 overall, including 10-6 in the Big 12. The 6-8 Cade Cunningham (19.5-6.3-3.5) has been as good (if not better than advertised). He's joined in the starting lineup by guards Anderson (10.3 & 4.0), Walker (8.9),and Williams (8,0) plus the 6-9 Boone (9.8 & 5.6). The 6-5 Likekele (9.8-6.9-3.7) and the 6-7 Moncrieffe (9.2 & 5.6) are big contributors off the bench. Drew's run at Baylor has been HUGELY successful and the win at West Va gave the school its first regular season title since 1950 (SWC). The Bears outscored West Virginia 13-8 in overtime while holding the Mountaineers to one made field goal. Drew couldn't wait to celebrate after the victory and jumped on 6-5 senior guard Mark Vital's back before heading to the locker room. Congrats to Baylor but returning home after its HUGE win and laying double digits to an Oklahoma St team that has won FIVE in row (THREE over ranked teams) and owns the likely No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft seems like a 'bridge too far.' Take those big points! Good luck...Larry |
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03-04-21 | Campbell +2 v. Radford | Top | 78-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout (Big South Conf Tourney) is on Campbell at 6:00 ET. Winthrop (21-1 overall / 17-1 in conference play) is expected to win the Big South Tourney but just maybe the second-seeded Radford Highlanders (12-6) or the third-seeded Campbell Fighting Camels (11-6) could pull an upset. Both schools won their tourney openers (Mar 1) and will meet for a third time this season Thursday from Dedmon Center (Radford's homecourt). Campbell had the nation's leading scorer (Chris Clemons at 30.1 PPG) but after opening 9-3, finished 15-16. Clemons is gone but the Fighting Camels enter this game on an EIGHT-game winning streak. The 6-6 Henderson (15.6 & 4.6) plus guard Whitfield (14.6) are the team's top-two point-producers but guard Thompson (8.6) plus two sophomores, the 6-7 Lusane (8.1 & 5.6) and the 6-8 Carralero (7.3 & 3.3) have been regular contributors. Radford was 21-11 last season, tying Winthrop at 15-3 for the Big South's best conference mark. However, the Highlanders lost all FIVE starters from last year's team. Radford has just ONE double digit scorer and that's PG Ali (10.2 & 3.9 APG) but in all, EIGHT players chip in between 4.6 and 10.2 PPG. The biggest contributors play in the frontcourt. That group includes the 6-8 Mangum (9.6 & 4.4), the 6-9 Djonkam (9.0 & 4.78), the 6-7 Jules (7.5 & 4.0) and the 6-7 Walker (6.9 & 7.6). There is little doubt that Radford is 'itching' for a shot at Winthrop but my bet says that is trumped by Campbell's motivation to avenge back-to-back tight home losses to Radford back on Jan 19 (97-91 in OT) and Jan 20 (67-61). What has Campbell done since those back-to-back defeats? Just win EIGHT consecutive games, holding opponents to an average of just 59.4 PPG. "Double-Revenge" gets the CA$H in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Warriors v. Blazers +1.5 | Top | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Golden State Warriors owned the NBA's worst record (15-50) last season, after appearing in five straight Finals (winning three titles). However, the Warriors have been one of the NBA's "surprise" teams this season, as they are currently 19-16 (No. 8 seed in the West). Portland opened a disappointing 12-10 this season but then ripped off SIX straight wins (Feb 9-18) to reach 18-10. However, a four-game slide followed, before the Blazers ended their skid with a 123-111 home win over Charlotte on Monday. Each team will be playing the first of two consecutive games to close the NBA's first half. The 19-14 Trail Blazers (current No. 6 seed) will remain home to play Sacramento on Thursday, while the 19-16 Warriors will move on to Phoenix. The Warriors visit Portland off an 'ugly' 117-91 road loss at the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Head coach Steve Kerr called the game "his club's worst effort of the season!" Golden State fell behind 41-21 after the first quarter and never made the game competitive. "There's going to be a handful of games every year that are sort of inexplicable, and this is one you don't spend too much time on," Kerr said. "You flush the toilet, and you move on." Looking for some good news, while Draymond Green sprained an ankle in the second quarter and did not return, he will play Wednesday night according to Kerr. Green plays "wherever needed," leading the team in rebounds (6.0) and assists (8.5). The trio of Curry (29.5-5.4-6.4) , Wiggins (17.1 & 4.5) and Oubre (15.5 & 5.9) have been "constants" but it's sure good news that the team's No. 1 pick from last season's (No. 2 overall pick) is finally back. The 7-1 Wiseman has averaged 11.5 & 4.8 in the last four games, VERY close to his season averages of 12.0 & 5.9). Depth has been provided by the 6-8 Paschall (10.2) plus veteran guards Bazemore (6.5 ) and Lee (6.3). The Blazers have endured the past 20 games without CJ McCollum (26.7-3.9-5.0), whose fractured foot will be re-evaluated this week. Lillard (29.6-4.3-8.1), as usual. leads the way but he was held to a modest 23 points in the win over Charlotte. However, Carmelo Anthony (13.6) turned back the clock with six 3-pointers and 29 points off the bench, while PF. Robert Covington (7.7 & 6.5) added 21 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks) plus Gary Trent Jr. 17 points came up big. Trent is averaging 15.5 PPG on the season and has done an excellent job of mitigating the loss of McCollum. The same can be said of center Enes Kanter, who is averaging 11.6 & 11.5 on the season, helping ease the loss of starting center Nurkic (9.8 & 7.7), who hasn't played since Jan 14. These teams split one-sided games in an NBA-style doubleheader early in the season in San Francisco. Damian Lillard led a three-point assault with 6-for-10 accuracy from beyond the arc in a 123-98 Trail Blazers win on Jan 1, while the Warriors rebounded with a 137-122 triumph two nights later behind Stephen Curry's 62 points. The victor tonight becomes a '20-game winner' and I'm betting Curry 'under' 62 points and taking the Blazers in the game. After all, Portland was a road favorite in both of those early January games in San Francisco but is now a small home dog?? Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Abilene Christian v. Stephen F Austin | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Under the Radar Rout is on SF Austin at 9:00 ET. The Abilene Christian Wildcats and Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks meet Wednesday in Southland Conference action at the William R. Johnson Coliseum in Nacogdoches, Tx. It's a logjam atop the Southland with Nicholls St at 13-2 and Sam Houston St at 12-2 plus SF Austin and Abilene Christian both at 11-2. Joe Golding is in his 10th season at Abilene Christian and his 2017-18 team went 27-7 for his lone NCAA appearance. Kyle Keller was hired as the head coach at Stephen F. Austin, replacing Brad Underwood. Following the discovery of an administrative error in declaring student-athletes eligible, on May 20, 2020, Stephen F. Austin reached an agreement with the NCAA to vacate hundreds of wins across multiple sports from 2013 to 2019, including all 117 men's basketball wins from the 2014–15 to 2018–19 seasons. With that behind the program, the Lumberjacks finished the 2019–20 season with a 28–3 (19–1 Southland) record and the regular season Southland title. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Southland and NCAA tournaments were canceled. Abilene Christian lost All-Southland guard Ricks (14.3) from last season's team and this year's team is led by a trio of double digit scorers. 7-0 center Kohl leads in scoring (12.1), while the 6-8 Pleasant leads in rebounding (5.5 per game) and adds 11.0 PPG. Guard Mason (10.6) is the third double digit scorer for a team that relies more on defense, as the Wildcats allow 60.9 PPG (9th) on 40.1% shooting (27th). Keller has put together another strong season at SF Austin and SIX players are averaging 20-plus minutes. FOUR seniors average in double digits, led by the 6-7 Kensmil (15.7 & 7.3) plus guards Johnson (15.5 & 4,3), Ware (13.8) and Kachelries (11.0 & 4.5 APG). 6-7 sophomore Soloman (8.0 &n4.8) and junior guard Hawkins (6.8) round out the main contributors. Abilene Christian DOMINATED in its home win (Jan 27) over S.F. Austin, 82-62! Holding the Lumberjacks to just 62 points was an impressive accomplishment, as SF Austin is averaging 82.2 PPG (13th) on 52.6% shooting (2nd) on the season. S.F. Austin is not only playing with revenge but did I mention that the Lumberjacks are 26-1 SU at home since the start of last season! Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | UCLA v. Oregon -4 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. It's the final week of the Pac 12's regular season and UCLA is trying to hang on and win the conference's regular-season title. UCLA is 17-6 overall with it's 13-4 Pac-12 record leaving the Bruins barely ahead of the 12-4 Oregon Ducks and the 13-5 USC Trojans. As fate would have it, UCLA plays at Oregon tonight and then will host the Trojans Saturday night at Pauley Pavilion. This storied UCLA program hasn't won a Pac 12 conference title since the 2012-13 season. The 17-5 Ducks have won EIGHT of their last nine games to close in on UCLA. This will be the first meeting between the Bruins and Ducks this season, although they have been scheduled to play on four previous dates, all postponed because of coronavirus concerns. Mick Cronin made NINE consecutive NCAA Tourney appearances at Cincy, as his Bearcats posted a 235-78 (.751) record in that span. He moved to Westwood last season and his Bruins got better as the year progressed and were playing their best ball when the season was shut down. UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Feb 6 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging between 9.4 and 14.6 PPG. PG Campbell (10.8 & 5.6 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Zuzang (14.6 & 4.4), the 6-6 Jaquez (11.6 & 6.1) and the 6-6 Bernard (9.4 & 4,6). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.3 & 5.3) up front. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). The Ducks have won EIGHT of nine and have a chance to win the regular season title with two wins (close at Oregon St on Saturday). The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers is averaging 17.0 & 5.4. The 6-6 Figueroa transferred from St John's and adds 11.6 & 6.6 and the 6-6 Eric Williams (10.7 & 6.3) transferred from Duquesne. That trio gives Oregon a strong frontcourt, even with 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8) suffering a torn ACL in mid-December (out for the season). 6-8 guard Duarte (17.4 & 4.9) is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaging 9.5 PPG in 10 games. Both Cronin and Altman are proven winners but I'm siding with the homestanding Ducks. "It's just great to be in this position," Oregon's Altman said. "Through the two pauses (due to COVID-19 protocols earlier this year) and a couple bad losses at home, for them to be resilient and fight back like they have -- they didn't get down. They came back and did a tremendous job. So I want them to have fun; I want them to enjoy this week." I think Oregon will win here handily, especially since the Bruins have gone just 2-9 ATS (that's an 82% "go-against") since mid-January. Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Revenge Game of the Year is on Villanova at 8:30 ET. Creighton, Villanova and Seton Hall finished in a three-way tie for first place in the Big East last season. As the 2020-21 Big East regular season comes to a close this week, Seton Hall is far back at 10-7, with No. 10 Villanova at 10-3 and No. 14 Creighton at 13-5. Here's the rub. With teams playing an uneven amount of games, the Bluejays would capture the Big East regular season title over the Wildcats with a win here (have already beaten Villanova 86-70 back in Creighton on Feb 13) and a home win over Butler on Saturday. Both schools are coming off losses with Creighton losing 77-69 at Xavier on Saturday and Villanova losing 73-61 at Butler on Sunday. Creighton was ranked No. 11 in the AP's preseason poll (the highest in school history). Greg McDermott is now in his 11th season at Creighton and after tying for the Big East title last season and finishing 24-7, Creighton was picked to finish second behind Villanova in a preseason poll. Well here the Blue Jays are! Creighton owns an excellent guard trio in PG Zegarowski (14.9-3.9-4.6) plus Mahoney (13.9 & 4.5) and Ballock (10.5). 6-5 SF Jefferson (12.3 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Bishop (11.5 & 5.9) get help up front from 7-0 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner (6.7 & 3.9). Villanova's Jay Wright lost Saddiq Bey (16.1 & 4.7) to the NBA (was a first-round NBA draft pick) but four double digit scorers from last year's team returned. Villanova's preseason ranking of No. 3 was its highest since the 1995-96 season. Villanova is considered one of the most dangerous teams in the country for many reasons but offensive balance is at the top of the list. All FIVE starters average in double digits. The 6-9 Robinson-Earl (15.5 & 7.9) leads in scoring and rebounding and is joined up front by the 6-7 Samuels (11.1 & 6.3). That duo is joined in the starting lineup by a trio of double-digit scoring guards, PG Gillespie (14.4 & 4.7 APG), Moore (12.8 & 4.4) and Daniels (10.6). The 6-9 Swider comes off the bench to add 6.2 & 3.3. 'Nova can clinch the Big East regular season crown with a win here AND maybe a No. 2 seed in the "Big Dance," so motivation is hardly an issue. Obviously, Villanova will remember its 16-point loss at Creighton plus the Wildcats can't possibly forget Sunday's HUGELY disappointing loss Sunday at Butler. Villanova shot 2 of 27 on three-pointers, with 14 straight misses to end the game! This is a "big time" game and in the end, it's Villanova which will make the deciding plays. Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse -2.5 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Happy Hour "Best Bet" is on Syracuse at 5:00 ET. Clemson was 9-1 and ranked 12th when it welcomed Virginia to Littlejohn Coliseum back on Jan 16. The Tigers were coming off an extended pause due to a positive COVID-19 test and subsequent contact tracing. The 11-day break clearly did not turn out well, as UVa routed Clemson 85-50. That was the first of three straight losses in which the Tigers averaged 58.7 PPG! However, the Tigers have rebounded by winning SIX of seven including FIVE in a row. 15-5 Clemson (9-5 in the ACC) travels to the Carrier Dome to take on a Syracuse team that has won four of six to reach 14-8 (8-7 in the ACC) but more notably, is 12-1 at home! Clemson head coach Brad Brownell is in his 11th season with the Tigers and his team is poised to make the NCAA tourney for just the THIRD time this season. Clemson returned four starters from last season's team plus Fordham transfer Nick Honor became eligible. The Tigers are led by 6-8 senior forward Simms (13.6 & 6.2). He's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-8 Tyson (6.3 & 4.7) plus guards Honor (9.1), Trapp (7.0 & 5.6) and Hemenway (4.6). Dawes (8.5) and Newman (4.3) come off the bench in the backcourt and the 6-10 Baehre (4.5 & 4.4) in the frontcourt. ,p> Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim knows all about appearing in the "Big Dance" but his team's at-large resume this season still needs some help. Syracuse has a solid starting-five, with only guard Richmond (6.9-3.1-3.3) contributing off the bench. The Orange own a strong starting frontline in SF Griffin (15.0 & 6.5), the 6-7 Guerrier (14.8 & 9.0) and the 6-10 Dolezag (10.7 & 5.2). SG Buddy Boeheim scored 26 points in Saturday's win over the Tar Heels and now leads the team in scoring (15.9) and is paired in the backcourt by PG Girard (9.7 & 3.1 APG). Both teams come in playing well and this late-season showdown has plenty of postseason repercussions. Syracuse can't help but remember suffering a 17-point loss at Clemson back on Feb 6 and the Orange will celebrate "Senior Night" on Wednesday. Syracuse has more 'firepower' than Clemson and a look back at that Clemson win at home on Feb 6 and we find that the Tigers shot 52.9% from the floor, 10 points HIGHER than the team's season FG percentage of 42.5. Syracuse gets a MUCH-needed win! Good luck...Larry |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 10:05 ET. The Suns went 8-0 SU and ATS in the Orlando 'bubble' but still couldn't sneak into the playoffs. In the offseason, Phoenix acquired longtime All Star PG Chris Paul in an effort to break its 10-year playoff drought. The Suns opened 6-2 but were just 8-8 on Jan 27. However, the Suns visit Staples Center tonight at 22-11, having won 14 of their last 17 games. The Suns currently own the West No. 4 seed just a half-game back of the 24-12 Clippers and ONE game back of tonight's opponent, the 24-11 Lakers. The Lakers won their SEVENTH straight game on Feb 12 and at 21-6, only the 21-5 Utah Jazz owned a better record in the NBA. However, the Lakers then fell into their worst slump of the season (FOUR straight losses and five of six), before winning home games over the Blazers (Fri) and Warriors (Sun) to reach 24-11. The two Pacific Division rivals are meeting for the first time this season tonight. Devin Booker is a major reason the Suns are among the top teams in the Western, coming off scoring a season-high 43 points in the Suns' 118-99 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday. He has topped 30 points in THREE of his last four and is now averaging 25.5 PPG (has averaged 26.6 PPG each of the last two seasons). Chris Paul (16.4-4.7-6.0) has everything the Suns had hoped for and center Ayton (14.5 & 11.6) has stayed healthy (he has not missed a SINGLE game!) with 19 double-doubles on the season. Head coach Monty Williams moved Frank Kaminsky (7.3 & 3.8) into the starting lineup back on Feb 7 and the Suns are 11-2 (Kaminsky has started 11 of those 13 with Phoenix going 10-1). |
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03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Game of the Month (Big Ten) is on Purdue at 9:00 ET. Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. The Badgers were 13-4 (7-3 Big Ten) in late January but are just 3-5 since, falling to 16-9 overall and 10-8 in the Big Ten. Wisconsin opened No. 7 in the preseason poll but was ranked 25th in Monday's latest poll (not sure why the Badgers are still ranked?). In contrast, Purdue's Matt Painter (in his 16th season with the Boilermakers) saw his team go just 16-14 last season, coming off a four-year run of averaging 27.3 wins per season. The Boilermaker's opened a modest 7-5 this season but Purdue has won NINE of its last 12 games. Purdue is now 16-8 (11-6 in the Big Ten) and is back in the top-25 as of Monday at No. 23. Wisconsin is coming off a 74-69 loss at home to now-No. 4 Illinois on Saturday, even though the Fighting Illini were playing without star guard Ayo Dosunmu. Wisconsin starts FIVE seniors, guards Trice (14.1-3.5-9) and Davison (8.8 & 3.5) plus the 6-10 Potter (12.5 & 6.2), the 6-11 Reuvers (8.6 & 3.4) and the 6-8 Ford (8.6 & 4.2). 6-5 freshman Davis (7.1 & 4.4) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.3 & 4.2) both contribute off the bench The 6-10 Williams leads Purdue in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (9.0). He's supported by a well-balanced group of FIVE others who chip in between 8.0 and 10.0 PPG. The group includes guards Stefanovic (10.0), Hunter (9.8), Ivey (9.3 & 3.6) and Newman (8.8 & 3.5), plus the 7-3 Edey (8.0 & 4.3). 6-6 freshman Gillis is chipping in 5.4 & 4.0 off the bench. Both teams play excellent D, as Wisconsin allows 63.2 PPG and Purdue 65.7. However, while the Badgers' season is 'crumbling,' the Boilermakers are making a credible run at gaining a No. 4 seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. Purdue is 9-1 SU at home this season, with that LONE loss coming against now-No. 2 Michigan. The Boilermakers are being really UNDERVALUED with this pointspread! Good luck...Larry |
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03-02-21 | Duke v. Georgia Tech -1.5 | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Ga Tech at 8:00 ET. Duke had a season-best four-game winning streak halted in Saturday night's 80-73 overtime home loss to Louisville and will head to Atlanta at 11-9 overall, including 9-7 in the ACC to take on Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are on a four-game winning streak for the second time this season and welcome the Blue Devils to McCamish Pavilion at 13-8 (9-6 in the ACC) after Saturday's 84-77 home win over Syracuse. Duke opened No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but the team's Jan 12 loss at Va Tech saw 5-3 Duke (3-1 in the ACC) fall out of the AP poll. The Blue Devils haven't been back but as noted, were on a four-game winning streak before Saturday's loss .Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) is with the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) is with the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guards Stewart (13.1 & 4.0) and Roach (9.3) have played well but 6-9 freshman Johnson (11.9 & 6.5) has left the team to prepare for the NBA. However, Duked was on a FOUR-game run without him. 6-9 sophomore Hurt leads the team in scoring (19.3) and rebounding (6.3), while sophomore SF Moore (9.4 & 4.6) and senior guard Goldwire (6.0-3.1-3.9) are solid contributors. The 7-0 Williams (4.7 & 3.8) and the 6-8 Brakefield (4.1 & 2.8) only average about 12 MPG but have helped at times. Ga Tech lacks depth but has a solid five-man rotation. Returning PG Alvarado (16.0-3.5-4.2) and SG Devoe (14.7-4.3-3.2) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright leads in scoring (17.5) and rebounding (8.0). 6-7 USC transfer Usher (10.9 & 4.2) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (7.3) adds to the team's backcourt depth. The 6-7 Moore (4.6 & 3.0 is the lone reserve making any real contributions. Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons have not gone well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets opened this season 0-2, losing home games to Ga State and Mercer. However, the Yellow Jackets are 13-6 since and at 9-6 in conference play, are three games above .500 in ACC play for the first time in 25 years (March 3, 1996)!! "We've now learned how to win," Pastner said. The Yellow Jackets have clinched a winning record in ACC regular-season play in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1989 and 1990."That's 30 years," Pastner added. "That's a great accomplishment for this program, for this team." Georgia Tech has won 13 of its last 14 conference home games, including a 7-1 record this year. Could Ga Tech go 'dancing' this season while Duke 'stays home?' VERY possible. Good luck...Larry |
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03-01-21 | Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Oklahoma at 9:00 ET. Oklahoma's Lon Kruger came to Norman for the 2011-12 season, after leading Kansas St, Florida, Illinois and UNLV to NCAA appearances. The Sooners made the "Big Dance" in SIX of his first eight seasons before last year's team went 19-12 before the shut down. Oklahoma was unranked in the preseason but cracked the top-25 (at No. 24) on Feb 24. Then, on Feb 1, the Sooners jumped all the way to No. 9, as Oklahoma beat FOUR ranked teams during the month of January. Oklahoma was No. 7 in the most recent poll (Feb 22) but lost this past week 62-57 at Kansas St (just 7-19 / 3-14 in the Big 12) and then 94-90 (OT) at home to Oklahoma St. Mike Boynton took over in Stillwater when Brad Underwood left for Illinois and in his first three seasons, the Cowboys were an underwhelming 51-49. However, led by super-frosh Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma entered the top-25 on Feb 8 at No. 23 for the first time since Feb of 2015. For some reason, Okla St fell out of the last two polls, despite not losing. A new poll comes out this afternoon and the Cowboys will SURELY re-enter the top-25, while the Sooners will drop significantly after an 0-2 week. That's the setting for these two "Bedlam" rivals to play for the second time in three days, this time in Stillwater. Oklahoma's top scorer from last season is gone (forward Doolittle averaged 15.8 & 8.9). Starting guards Reaves (17.5-5.6-5.1), Harmon (13.0) and Gibson (10.4) average in double digits, while Harkless (7.2 & 4.9) and Williams (6.6 & 3.0) add depth in the backcourt off the bench. The 6-9 Manek (9.9 & 4.9) and 6-7 Hill (4.6 & 3.3) start up front with the 6-10 Kuath (6.1 & 4.5) coming off the bench. Likely "one-and-done" 6-8 standout Cade Cunningham (19.8-6.3-3.5) has been as good (if not better than advertised). He's joined in the starting lineup by guards Anderson (10.2 & 4.1), Walker (9.0),and Williams (7.7) plus the 6-9 Boone (9.5 & 5.4). The 6-5 Likekele (9.8-6.9-3.7) and the 6-7 Moncrieffe (9.2 & 6.7) are big contributors off the bench. Cunningham was "unstoppable" Saturday in Norman (a career-high 40 points with 11 rebounds) and will now look lead OSU to a sweep of the season series over OU. The winner will bolster its NCAA Tournament resume plus the game also has plenty of repercussions in the Big 12 (teams are tied for fourth place in the conference). The two rivals have not played in back-to-back games since 1943 and I'm "all over" Oklahoma in this "payback" situation. "Boomer Sooner!" Good luck...Larry |
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03-01-21 | North Carolina v. Syracuse +2.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Syracuse at 7:00 ET. North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll. However for most of this season, the Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking. That said, just maybe North Carolina has "turned a corner?" The Tar Heels' 78-70 Saturday over No. 11 Florida State was their first victory against a nationally ranked team since November 2019, snapping a 10-game losing streak against ranked opponents. 15-5 North Carolina (9-5 in ACC play) will play its final road game of the season tonight in Syracuse. Jim Boeheim's team is 13-8 (7-7 in ACC play, after losing 84-77 loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 for the Tar Heels but as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG for North Carolina. However, North Carolina's strength is its depth. EIGHT players are making contributions. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (11.2 & 7.4), the 6-10 Brooks (10.4 & 7.0) and the 6-11 Sharpe (10.0 & 8.0), while the backcourt goes five-deep. The group includes Love (10.1 & 3.7 APG), Davis (8.1), Walton (8.1), Black (5.8 & 5.3) and Platek (4.2). In contrast, Syracuse has a solid starting-five, with only guard Richmaond (6.9-3.1-3.0) contributing off the bench. The Orange own a strong starting frontline in SF Griffin (15.5 & 6.6), the 6-7 Guerrier (14.7 & 9.1) and the 6-10 Dolezag (10.8 & 5.2). SG Buddy Boeheim (15.3 PPG) is joined in the backcourt by PG Girard (10.0 & 3.3 APG). Saturday's win over FSU was notable in that it was the first time in UNC history that all four players to score in double figures in a game were freshmen. The group consisted of Walker Kessler (20 points), Kerwin Walton (13), R.J. Davis (12) and Caleb Love (12). I noted all but Kessler above and that's because even after his 'Herculean' effort vs the Seminoles (9 of 10 from the floor with 8 rebounds and 4 blocks) the 7-1 Kessler is averaging just 4.1 & 2.8 on the season. I 'smell' a let-down spot here for the Tar Heels and while Syracuse fell to 2-7 on the road after Saturday's loss, the Orange are 11-1 SU at home. What's more, Saturday's loss followed a Monday loss at Duke and Syracuse has yet to lose THREE in a row this season. Why start here? Take whatever points you can get with Syracuse, which hung with the Tar Heels all game back in January at Chapel Hill (lost by six). Good luck...Larry |
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02-28-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -4 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Pacific) is on the LA Lakers at 8:05 ET. All are familiar with the "fall from grace" of the Warriors, going from FIVE straight appearances in the NBA finals (three titles) to the NBA's worst record (15-50) in last year's pandemic-shortened season. However, the Warriors have won SEVEN of 10 and at 19-15, 4 1/2-games inside the playoff cutline (10 teams make this year's postseason). The Los Angeles Lakers won their SEVENTH straight game on Feb 12 and at 21-6, only the 21-5 Utah Jazz owned a better record in the NBA. However, the Lakers were buried in their worst slump of the season (FOUR straight losses and five of six) when they hosted the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. LA got off the schneid with a 102-93 victory. Curry (29.9-5.5-6.3), Wiggins (17.5 & 4.6) and Oubre (15.5 & 6.0) have led the way for the Warriors this season. However, the recent "big news" was that the team's No. 1 pick (2nd overall of the 2020 draft), James Wiseman (12.3 & 5.8), has returned (11-game absence caused by a sprained wrist). He's played in three straight (all off the bench), averaging 13.7 & 3.7 in about 17 minutes per game. it may NOT be a coincidence that the Warriors are 3-0 SU & ATS in that span. Joining Curry, Wiggins and Oubre in the starting lineup are center Looney (just returned as well and is splitting time with Wiseman) and Green (5.7-6.1-8.7), who with the return of Wiseman and Looney, is back to his natural position of PF. A.D. (22.5 & 8.4) is sidelined with an Achilles problem (earliest return is right after the All Star break) and LA has gone just 2-5 since he was hurt at Denver back on Feb 15. Of course, LBJ hasn't missed a SINGLE game (35 minutes per), averaging 25.7-8.2-7.9. I had a HUGE play on LA in Friday's game and noted that PG Schroder had been held out the previous four games due to COVID-19 protocols (he tested negative but was held out due to contact tracing) but was available to return on Friday. Simply put, the Lakers aren't the same club without Dennis Schroder (14.4-3.6-4.2) in the lineup (had gone 0-4 SU & ATS in his absence). Schroder made his presence felt on both ends of the court in Friday's game. He scored 22 points and helped slow Portland's Damian Lillard, who managed 11 points in the second half after scoring 24 in the first. With A.D. sidelined, PF Harrell (13.9 & 6.5) and SF Kuzma (11.1 & 6.4) will see more "PT" plus LA has a deep backcourt in Caldwell-Pope (8.8), Horton-Tucker (6.7), Caruso (5.5) and Matthews (4.7). I said in taking LA on Friday that I expected a "Big push" from them heading in the All Star break and while I won't project on Tuesday's home with the Suns or Wednesday's road game at Sacramento (LA's final game before the break), I will play the Lakers here. The Warriors returned from FOUR games in six days on a road trip to beat the Hornets in San Francisco on Friday but now it's right back on the road for THREE in a row prior to the break. The Lakers are up first and PRIMED to avenge a 115-113 loss to Golden St here at Staples back on Jan 18, when the Warriors rallied from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to edge LA. In that game, LA was favored by 8 1/2-points but here, it's HALF that! Good luck...Larry |
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02-28-21 | Quinnipiac v. Marist -2.5 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (MAAC) is on Marist at 4:00 ET. The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Marist Red Foxes meet Sunday in college basketball action at the McCann Arena and again tomorrow night, wrapping up regular season MAAC play for the two teams. The Bobcats are 8-9 overall (6-7 MAAC) and the Red Foxes are 10-8 (8-8 MAAC). Quinnipiac had lost SEVEN of nine but comes in on a three-game winning streak, Meanwhile, after a 6-1 start, Marist has lost SEVEN of 11. Quinnipiac's head coach Baker Dunleavy (yes, Mike Dunleavy's son) was an assistant under Jay Wright at Villanova and is in his fourth season at Quinnipiac with modest results (51-40). Dunleavy lost his two best players from last season in PG Kelly (16.7 & 4.5 APG) and the 6-8 Marfo (10.2 & 13.3). This season's team relies on balance, with SEVEN players getting 21-plus minutes of "PT." The 6-6 Rigoni leads in scoring (12.6) and rebounding (6.7) and is joined up front by the 7-1 Pinkney (8.5 & 5.1). FIVE guards add between 6.9 and 10.8 PPG, led by Chenery (10.8 & 4.0), Kortright (9.5-4.2-3.7) and Lewis (8.5-4.2-3.3). John Dunne spent 10 seasons at St Peter's (overall 153-225 record) and was just 19-42 in his first two seasons with Marist. However, despite losing senior guard Cubbage (11.0 PPG) after just four games, this year's team has played better. FIVE players have participated in all 18 games Starting guards Wright (10.9 & 3.4) and Byrd (8.2) are supported by Sullivan's 9.6 PPG and 3.2 APG off the bench. The 6-8 Jones (9.4 & 5.2) and the 6-7 Bell (7.6 & 4.5) are the team's top frontcourt players. Marist 'plays slow' and that's part of why the Red Foxes are allowing just 62.9 PPG (36th). However, give them credit for holding opponents to 40.1% shooting (30th). There is little difference between these two teams but in this pandemic-interrupted season, Quinnipiac has played just two games away from home (4 road / two neutral), winning just ONCE, while losing five by an average of 11.2 points! Looking back a little further and you'll find that the Bobcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games! Why take a 'FG' or less? NOT me. Marist is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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02-28-21 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +4.5 | Top | 80-74 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Cincinnati at 1:00 ET. Penny Hardaway was known for his offense as a player but as head coach at his alma Mater, defense has been 'king' at Memphis. The 13-6 Tigers are 9-3 in AAC play due to their defense, which is allowing opponents to score just 62.0 PPG (13th) on 38.4% shooting (5th), including 26.6% on threes (3rd). The Tigers are in Cincinnati on Sunday, coming off a 61-46 win at home over Tulane, a game in which Memphis held the Green Wave to 25.9 percent shooting (a season low for one of its opponents). The disappointing 9-8 Bearcats (7-5 in the AAC) seem like the "perfect foil," as they are averaging a modest 69.2 PPG on 42.7% shooting, including 29.7% on threes (323rd). However, DON'T ignore the fact that Cincy comes in having won SIX of its last seven games. Memphis lost center James Wiseman after just three games last season and PF Achiuwa (15.8 & 10.8) after the season (both are now in the NBA as 1st round picks). Va Tech transfer, the 6-7 Nolley (13.4 & 3.6), leads the Tigers in scoring. He's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-9 Williams (10.4 & 6.2), guard Quinones (9.2 & 4.8) and the 6-10 Cisse (7.0 & 7.1). Coming off the bench is the 6-7 Jefferson (9.8 & 5.5) plus guards Ellis (8.6) and Lomax (6.3-3.1-4.4). John Brannen led Northern Kentucky to a 72-30 record in his final three seasons, leading the Norse to the "Big Dance" in two of those three years. He was hired at Cincy on April 14, 2019 when Mick Cronin left for UCLA. The Bearcats went 20-10 in last year's pandemic-shortened season but opened the current season missing guards Jarron Cumberland (15.5) and Jaevin Cumberland (8.8) plus forward Tre Scott (11.4 & 10.5). Guard Keith Williams leads the Bearcats in scoring with 14.4 PPG (4.0 RPG), while fellow guards Jeremiah Davenport (11.1 & 4.8) and David DeJulius (10.0-5.1-4.6) join him in double digits. Throw in Adams-Woods (7.9) and Cincy has a very good backcourt. The problem has been up front, where 7-1 returning center Chris Vogt (5.5 & 3.8) has been a big disappointment after averaging 11.1 & 5.7 last season. The 6-10 6-10 Ivanauskas (6.3 & 5.0) played just seven games (out for the season), leaving the 6-7 Eason (7.6 & 5.7) as the team's best frontcourt player. However, as noted above, the Bearcats have won SIX of seven with their lone loss in that span coming at No. 12 Houston. Cincinnati shook off that 90-52 drubbing at Houston (Feb 21) by winning back-to-back games against Tulsa (71-69) and Tulane (91-71) this past week. The Bearcats enjoyed a rare blowout victory over the Green Wave, after FIVE of their first six conference victories were decided by three points or less. Brannen's an excellent coach and his team is MORE than capable of winning or at least taking this game to the wire. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Baylor v. Kansas +5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Kansas at 8:00 ET. Baylor carries an 18-0 record (10-0 in the Big 12) into Saturday's matchup against No. 17 Kansas (17-8 / 11-6 Big 12) in Lawrence. Baylor has been No. 2 to 23-0 Gonzaga in EACH weekly AP poll but unlike the Bulldogs (11-10-2 ATS), the Bears are 13-5 ATS. However, the Bears ended a three-week stoppage created by developments related to COVID-19 as well as inclement weather in Texas on Feb 23 and barely escaped (at home!) against last-place Iowa St . Baylor overcame a 17-point deficit to win 77-72 (obviously, not an ATS win!). Bill Self's Kansas team was ranked No. 1 in the final AP poll after last season's shutdown. Despite losing key players like PG Dotson (18.1-4.1-4.0) and the 6-10 Azubuike (13.7 & 10.5) this year's team opened No. 6 in the preseason poll. Kansas lost its season-opener to No. 1 Gonzaga (Gonzaga has yet to lose) but heading into its Jan 12 game at Oklahoma St, the Jayhawks were 10-2 and still ranked No. 6. However, Kansas lost FIVE of its next seven and on Feb 8, fell out of the top-25 to see its 231-week run as an AP top-25 team end. That said, I guess we shouldn't be shocked that the Jayhawks (with their history) had won FIVE in a row before losing to Texas earlier this week. Kansas is now 17-7 overall record (back in the AP-25 at No. 17), including 11-6 in the Big 12. Baylor's Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and has made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine). Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) from last year's team but the strength of Baylor's team this season is centered around its guards. Butler's (17.1-3.3-5.1) the best of the group but don't look past Teague (14.7 & 4.0), Mitchell (13.4 & 5.7 APG), Flagler (10.9). or Mayer (7.9 & 3.8) The 6-5 Vital (5.7 & 5.9) plays like a power forward and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 7.8 & 6.4. Kansas has FIVE players averaging 10-plus PPG. Guard Aybaji (13.8 & 3.5) leads the way, followed by the 6-10 McCormack (13.0 & 6.0) and the 6-7 Wilson (12.8 & 8.2 up front, plus guards Braun (10.3 & 5.1) and Garrett (10.0-4.43.7), who is considered the team's best perimeter defender. Balance has contributed to Kansas placing five scorers in double figures in each of its last two games and six times this season, as Self whittles his rotation. Baylor remains perfect but the Bears were clearly "off their game" vs Iowa St after a long break (see above). Although Baylor will not come close to completing its conference schedule, it needs to win just one of its last four games to clinch its first Big 12 regular-season championship. The team's 18-0 start is its best in school history (began the 2011-12 campaign with 17 straight wins) and with a win here in Lawrence, Baylor can join Texas, a 75-72 overtime winner over Kansas on Tuesday, as teams to sweep the Jayhawks this season in a Big 12 home-and-home series. Note that only ONE conference rival had managed a season sweep in Bill Self's previous 17 seasons coaching Kansas. Baylor was never able to shake Kansas back in Waco on Jan 18 (8-point win), so I see no reason to NOT think that the Jayhawks take this game right to the wire here in Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas becomes the first Big 12 team to complete a full, regular season schedule of 18 games and why not celebrate with a B-A-N-G! Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Louisville v. Duke -5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Duke at 6:00 ET. Chris Mack took over at Xavier for the 2009-10 season when Sean Miller took the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to eight NCAA tourneys in nine seasons before moving to Louisville. The Cards went 20-14 in his first season (NCAA bid) and were 24-7 in his second year, when the season was shut down in March (AP ranked them 14th in its final poll). Louisville was 11-4 (6-3 in the ACC) on Feb 1 but then didn't play again until Feb 20. The Cardinals returned from a coronavirus-related pause of nearly three weeks and got blown out 99-54 at North Carolina last Saturday. Louisville recovered by defeating Notre Dame 69-57 at home on Tuesday, despite playing without guard David Johnson because of illness. Duke opened No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but the team's Jan 12 loss at Va Tech saw 5-3 Duke (3-1 in the ACC) fall out of the AP poll. The Blue Devils haven't been back, as a three-game losing streak left them at 7-8 (5-6 in the ACC) as of Feb 9. However, FOUR straight ACC wins followed that slide )more details shortly) and the Blue Devils welcome Louisville to Cameron Indoor Stadium 11-8 (9-6 in the ACC). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's Louisville team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.2-5.2-4.5. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He's joined by returning guard Johnson (12.7-5.9-3.4) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 9.7 & 7.7 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 9.8 & 7.9. True freshman guard Davis (9.2 & 3.4) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.2 & 3.5) round out the main contributors. Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) is with the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) is with the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guards Stewart (13.4 & 4.1) and Roach (9.3) have played well but 6-9 freshman Johnson (11.9 & 6.5) has left the team to prepare for the NBA. One could "good Riddance," as Duke has gone on a FOUR-game run without him. 6-9 sophomore Hurt leads the team in scoring (18.3) and rebounding (6.2), while sophomore SF Moore (9.2 & 4.4) and senior guard Goldwire (6.1-3.1-3.8) are solid contributors. The 7-0 Williams (4.6 & 3.7) and the 6-8 Brakefield (4.2 & 2.9) only average about 12 MPG but have helped at times. "Over the last four games, we've emphasized defense and we've changed our ball screen defense which has helped us," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "The last three games, we've really played well on the defensive end of the court and it's made a difference in us winning and losing. We have to keep going." He's right on the money with that quote. After allowing 91 points (to UNC) and 93 (to ND) in back-to-back home games, Duke's won and covered at NC State and Wake plus at home to UVa and Syracuse. Duke has allowed just 62.3 PPG in its four-game surge and now looks to avenge a 70-65 loss at Louisville back on Jan 23, when the Blue Devils were a MUCH different team. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on North Carolina at 4:00 ET. This has NOT been a vintage year for the ACC. The NCAA began seeding the entire field for the 1979 tourney and in every year but ONE (1990), the ACC has had at least one No. 1 or No. 2 seed. The 2021 tourney could make that TWO times since sending began. Then again, Florida State has taken care of business in recent games and that has put the Seminoles back on a clear path toward repeating as the ACC regular-season champions. Florida State was 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic The 14-3 Seminoles (10-2 ACC) have risen to the top of the standings, with the help of Virginia's three-game losing streak. North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll. The Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking, as the Tar Heels are 14-5 on the season (only 8-5 in ACC play). FSU began the season losing three key players from last year's team. PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0), who were all chosen in the NBA draft. Guard MJ Walker returns and leads with 13.1 PPG and is surrounded by a talented and DEEP group. 6-9 freshman Barnes is listed as a guard and checks in averaging 10.1-3.9-4.4) and returning guard Polite just misses double digits (9.5 & 4.9). The 6-8 Gray (11.7 & 6.9), the 7-1 Koprivica (9.3 & 5.8) and the 6-9 Osborne (5.9 & 5.0)comprise a solid frontcourt. Walker has been in and out of the lineup lately (listed as questionable for this one) but head coach Hamilton has FOUR more guards averaging about 21 PPG! Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 for the Tar Heels but as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG for North Carolina. However, like FSU, North Carolina's strength is its depth. EIGHT players are making contributions. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (11.4 & 7.5), the 6-10 Brooks (10.7 & 7.1) and the 6-11 Sharpe (10.3 & 8.1), while the backcourt goes five-deep. The group includes Love (10.0), Davis (7.9), Walton (7.9), Black (5.8 & 5.3) and Platek (4.4). Head coach Leonard Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that had produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools heading into the current season. The Seminoles have reached the 10-win mark in regular-season league play for the third consecutive season but this will be their THIRD consecutive road game, while the Tar Heels are playing their FOURTH straight home game. North Carolina had won ALL eight home games before Wednesday night's 83-70 non-conference loss to Marquette (made 19 turnovers and shot 41.7% to Marquette's 51.8%)."We've had a couple of good wins and then we turn around and we think we're a lot better than we really are," Roy Williams said after the game. Great spot for a bounce back by the Tar Heels here, as the last FSU won in Chapel Hill was back in 2010. Don't call this North Carolina win an upset. Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -3.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Wisconsin at 2:00 ET. Illinois opened No. 8 in the preseason poll but by mid-Jan, the Fighting Illini are a modest 9-5 (5-3 in the Big Ten). However, Illinois visit Madison having won EIGHT of nine (all in the Big ten and sit 17-6 (No. 5 in the latest AP poll), including 13-4 in the Big Ten (2nd to only 12-1 Michigan). Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. The Badgers were 13-4 (7-3 Big Ten) in late January but are just 3-4 since, falling to 16-8 overall and 10-7 in the Big Ten (6th-place). Wisconsin opened No. 7 in the preseason poll but is currently just 23rd. Illinois features one of the top guards in the nation in Dosunmu (21.0-6.3-4-5.3). However, Dosunmu suffered what the team calls a facial injury (reported to be a broken nose) on a hard foul in Tuesday's 81-72 loss at Michigan State. He sat out Thursday's 86-70 win over Nebraska in the team's final home contest. No official timetable has been set for Dosunmu's return. "I'll leave that all up to the doctors," said Illinois head coach Brad Underwood, who indicated there are additional factors regarding Dosunmu's return to the floor. 7-0 center Cockburn (17.7 & 10.0) has built on a successful freshman season and the backcourt features veterans like Frazier (10.6), Curbelo (7.7 & 4.3 APG) and Williams (5.0 & 5.4) plus freshman Miller adds 8.7 PPG. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (5.7 & 2.7) rounds out the main contributors. Wisconsin starts FIVE seniors, guards Trice (13.5-3.6-4.0) and Davison (9.3) plus the 6-10 Potter (12.4 & 6.2), the 6-8 Ford (8.8 & 4.2) and the 6-11 Reuvers (8.7 & 3.3). 6-5 freshman Davis (7.2 & 4.4) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.4 & 4.2) both contribute off the bench. The Badgers are 11-4 at home but have lost three of their last four at Madison and will try to avoid losing three straight Big Ten games at home for the first time since the 2017-18 season. These schools met back on Feb 6 in Champaign, when Dosunmu became the third player in Illinois history to record a triple-double with 21 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds during the Illini's 75-60 rout of Wisconsin. The Badgers had no answer for Dosunmu in that one but he'll be on the sidelines for this one. History will be on Wisconsin's side in this one as Illinois' Feb 6 win over Wisconsin was just its SECOND in the last 17 meetings between the Big Ten rivals. Go Badgers! Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech -4 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Ga Tech at 12:00 ET. A pair of ACC teams "on the bubble" will try to strengthen their case for the NCAA Tournament on Saturday afternoon when Syracuse visits Georgia Tech in Atlanta. 13-7 Syracuse (7-6 ACC) had its three-game winning streak broken in an 85-71 loss to Duke on Monday. Meanwhile, 12-8 Georgia Tech (8-6 ACC) helped its cause on Tuesday with a 69-53 victory at No. 16 Virginia Tech, giving the Yellow Jackets' THREE straight wins. Jim Boeheim's Syracuse team has FIVE players in double digits, getting production off the bench from only guard Richmond (7.2) However, the Orange do own a very good starting-five (all are averaging 29 minutes-plus per game). SF Griffin is averaging 15.0 PPG and adds 6.7 RPG. The 6-7 Guerrier is averaging 14.8 PG plus leads in rebounding (9.3). The 6-10 Dolezag completes the frontcourt with 11.3 & 5.4. SG Buddy Boeheim has taken over as the team's leading scorer (15.5 PPG) and he's joined in the backcourt by PG Girard (10.0 & 3.3 APG). Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons have not gone well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets opened this season 0-2, losing home games to Ga State and Mercer. However, the Yellow Jackets are 12-6 since. Much like Syracuse, Ga Tech has a solid five-man rotation but the Yellow Jackets have little depth. Returning PG Alvarado (16.6-3.7-4.1) and SG Devoe (14.6-4.3-3.1) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright leads in scoring (16.8) and rebounding (7.6). 6-7 USC transfer Usher (10.5 & 4.1) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (7.5) adds to the team's backcourt depth. "We want to make the dance," said Georgia Tech captain Jose Alvarado. "We want to go dancing." The Yellow Jackets certainly strengthened their case with Tuesday's win over the Hokies. It was their FOURTH win over a top-25 opponent this season, winning each game by double-digits and an average of 15.5 points. Georgia Tech's win at Va Tech was its first road win against a ranked team since the Yellow Jackets defeated No. 23 Miami back on Jan 28, 2015, breaking a streak of 21 straight losses! As for Syracuse, its road loss at Duke was "nothing new!" Syracuse has won on the ACC road against Boston College (3-13 / 1-9 ACC) and NC State, after it lost its best player in Daniels. In the Orange's other six road games, they've lost at Clemson, Pitt, North Carolina, UVa and Duke of the ACC plus at Rutgers (Big Ten) by an average of 15.0 PPG. Lay the modest points with Ga Tech, which enters having won NINE of its last 10 home games! Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-21 | Blazers v. Lakers -5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the LA Lakers at 10:05 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers won their SEVENTH straight game on Feb 12 and at 21-6, only the 21-5 Utah Jazz owned a better record in the NBA. However, the Lakers are buried in their worst slump of the season as they enter Friday's matchup against the visiting Portland Trail Blazers. Portland won SIX in a row from Feb 9 through Feb 17 but visit Staples Center on a three-game slide, giving them an 18-13 record. Starting center Nurkic (9.8 & 7.7) was lost to a broken wrist back on Jan 14 and SG McCollum (26.7-3.9-5.0) was lost to a foot injury two days later (last played Jan 16). Lillard (29.6-4.4-8.0) is having another All Star season for Portland, while Trent (15.3) is filing in for McCollum and Kanter (11.7 & 11.4) for Nurkic. Anthony (13.4) has provided consistent scoring off the bench all season. No one is surprised that LBJ (25.6-8.1-8.0) has played EVERY game this season but since A.D. (22.5 & 8.4) was sidelined with an Achilles problem, the Lakers have lost FIVE of six. It's also important to note that PG Dennis Schroder has been held out the last four games due to COVID-19 protocols (he tested negative but was held out due to contact tracing) but he is available to return on Friday from a seven-day quarantine. Schroder (14.2-3.6-4.3) has made a big impact for LA this season, as has PF Harrell, who hasn't missed a game while averaging13.8 & 6.4 (both were acquired over the offseason). SF Kuzma (11.3 & 6.2) is getting more minutes with A.D. sidelined plus LA does own a deep backcourt in Caldwell-Pope (8.9), Horton-Tucker (6.8), Caruso (5.3) and Matthews (4.9). The Lakers are currently 22-11, just behind the 23-11 Clippers but now 4 1/2 games back of the streaking Utah Jazz (26-6) in the West. The All Star break is right around the corner, which will give LA a much needed break, This contest is the first of a three-game homestand, before the Lakers play at Sacramento (Mar 3) before the break. I expect a STRONG push here by LBJ and Co. (getting Schroder back will be HUGE) and I'm laying the points tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-21 | Pacers v. Celtics -3 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the season as one of the Eastern Conference favorites but after an 8-3 start, the Celtics have looked nothing even remotely like a contender. Boston is with four games remaining before the All-Star break, after losing EIGHT of 11 (including THREE in a row). Boston and Miami (East champs last season) are both 15-17, meaning they would meet in a 9 vs 10 Play-In game (how the mighty have fallen). The Pacers visit Boston off a 111-107 home OT loss to the Warriors, returning to the court on Wednesday after time off due to games against Houston (weather-related) and San Antonio (COVID-related) being postponed (had six days off). The Pacers have hovered around .500 all season and although they are currently 15-15, their record is good enough for the East's No. 4 seed. PG Brogdon (21.7-4.8-6.4) and PF Sabonis (21.5 & 11.7) are having excellent seasons, while center Turner (13.2 & 6.6), SF McDermott (13.1 PPG on 50.9% shooting) and guard Justin Holiday (11.3 & 4.2) round out the current starting-five. T.J. Warren (foot surgery) and Caris LeVert (kidney operation) remain sidelined. Backup PG McConnell (5.9 & 6.6 APG) plus SG Lamb are also quality contributors. Lamb's return from injury is a BIG deal. He has averaged 12.2 PPG (on 50.7% shooting) in his 17 games back since tearing his ACL last February. Jayson Tatum (25.6-6.9-4.5) and Jaylen Brown (25.4-5.5-3.9) are both All Stars and while a knee injury has limited PG Walker to just 17 games, he's still averaging 17.3-3.6-4.1). Losing Marcus Smart (13.1 & 6.1 APG) has hurt but rookie guard Pritchard (7.3) plus big men Theis (8.8 & 5.0) and Thompson (7.8 & 8.4) are solid NBA players. The Celtics and Pacers split their first two meetings this season as part of a back-to-back at Indiana in December. Tonight's game begins FOUR straight on the road for Indiana, before the Pacers wrap up the season's first-half with a home game against the Nuggets (Mar 4). Boston won't leave the TD Garden until after the All Star break (four straight at home) and head coach Brad Stevens opined, "These next four games will tell us a lot about where we can go." My bet says Boston wins here "with room to spare." Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-21 | Purdue +1 v. Penn State | Top | 73-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Purdue at 7:00 ET. Purdue's Matt Painter is in his 16th season with the Boilermakers but his team was just 16-14 last season, coming off a four-year run of averaging 27.3 wins per season. The Boilermaker's opened a modest 7-5 this season but Purdue has won EIGHT of its last 11 games. Penn St was 21-10 last season but the Nittany Lions went through some turmoil right as practices started when head coach Pat Chambers resigned in late October following an investigation into inappropriate conduct. Penn State is playing this season with interim head coach Jim Ferry and the Nittany Lions welcome Purdue to State College with an 8-12 overall record (5-11 in the Big Ten). The 6-10 Williams leads Purdue in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (9.1). He's supported by a well-balanced group of FIVE others who chip in between 8.0 and 9.8 PPG. The group includes guards Hunter (9.8 & 3.2 APG), Stefanovic (9.8), Newman (9.2) and Ivey (9.0 & 3.5) plus the 7-3 Edey (8.0 & 4.2). Penn St surely miss All-Big Ten forward Lamar Stevens (17.6 & 6.9) but the Nittany Lions have three players averaging in double figures; guards Jones (15.8) and Brockington (13.4 & 4.7) plus the 6-7 Seth Lundy (10.1 & 3.8). The 6-9 Harrar (9.0 & 8.8) plus guards Sessoms (8.3), Dreda (8.0) and Wheeler (6.1-4.3-3.5) round out the main contributors. It's true that four of Penn St's five Big Ten wins have come at home but the Nittany Lions enter having just ended a four-game losing streak by winning 86-83 at Nebraska. Is that a 'buy' sign? Hardly, as the Cornhuskers are 5-17 overall, including 1-14 in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Purdue has won EIGHT of 11 and is making a run at gaining at least a No. 4 seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. Penn St is making just 41.0% of its FG attempts (311th) and allows opponents to make 47.0% of their FG attempts (321st). Good luck...Larry |
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02-25-21 | Oregon v. Stanford -1 | Top | 71-68 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Stanford at 9:00 ET. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). Oregon is 14-5 overall (9-4 in the Pac 12). Stanford head coach Jerod Haase may be feeling some pressure, as he replaced Johnny Dawkins at Stanford, who earned the title "King of the NIT," leading the Cardinal to NIT titles in 2012 and 2015. However, no school gets much credit these days for an NIT championship. Haase is just 82-70 (.539) in his first four-plus years at Stanford without an NCAA bid and his lone NIT appearance ended in the second round. Stanford is 14-9 overall this season, including 10-7 in the Pac 12). Oregon and Stanford met back on Jan 2 in Eugene where the Ducks notched a 73-56 blowout win. NCAA Tournament positioning could be at stake Thursday when Oregon visits Stanford for a critical Pac-12 matchup. Oregon is off a 72-58 loss Monday at USC, falling behind 15-0 at the start of the game. The Ducks had won FIVE straight going into USC game but still has work to do down the stretch. The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers, the 6-6 Eric Williams who transferred from Duquesne and 6-6 Figueroa from St John's, give Oregon a strong frontcourt, even with 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8) suffering a torn ACL in mid-December (out for the season). Omoruyi is averaging 16.8 & 5.3,17.2 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG), Williams is adding 11.2 & 6.5 and Figueroa 10.9 & 6.4. 6-8 guard Duarte (16.8 & 4.9) is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaging 10.4-3.3-3.0 in seven games. 6-9 center Oscar da Silva leads Stanford in scoring (18.8) and rebounding (6.8) and has been a steadying presence amid a rash of injuries. He is the ONLY member of the Cardinal to play in all 23 games .6-8 forward Ziaire Williams was expected to be the star of the freshman class and is now back after missing some time, playing in each of the last four games. He's averaging 10.9 & 5.0. Two solid defensive guards returned in Davis and Wills. Both have missed time with injuries but BOTH are back. Davis is averaging 12.1-3.6-3.4 and Wills 7.7 & 3.6. Delaire, a 6-9 junior, has played 20 of 22 games and has been solid all season in averaging 12.9 & 4.0. Oregon is in the middle of an eight-game stretch spanning just 18 days due to COVID-19-related hiatuses. The Ducks played poorly at USC and take on a Stanford team seeking another quality win for its at-large resume. The Cardinal are as healthy as they've been all season and are primed to hand Oregon a second straight loss, while avenging that Jan 2 loss. Good luck...Larry |
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02-25-21 | Montana v. Idaho State +3 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Crusher (Big Sky) is on Idaho St at 9:00 ET. When Wayne Tinkle left to take the job at Oregon State University, Montana hired Travis as its head coach (May 31, 2014). DeCuire played at Montana and the PG was named All Big Sky in his junior and senior seasons. He led his alma mater to 26 wins in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons (NCAA berths) but the Grizzlies fell to 18-13 in last year's pandemic-shortened season and Montana is just 9-12 this season (5-9 in the Big Sky). Ryan Looney spent 15 seasons as a head coach in the lower divisions (330-132, .714) and in his final season at Point Loma (2018-19) the school was the runner-up in the Division II playoffs. His first season at Idaho St went poorly (8-22 / 4-16 in the Big Sky) but the Bengals welcome Montana to Holt Arena Thursday night 12-7 (7-3 in the Big Sky). Montana has SEVEN players averaging between 7.4 and 11.7 PPG. The 6-8 Owens leads in scoring (11.7) and rebounding (5.7). He's joined up front by the 6-10 Steadman (9.9 & 5.4) and the 6-9 Bannen (8.4 & 5.3). The backcourt goes "four-deep" with Beasley (10.3), Whitney (10.0), Parker (8.3 & 4.8 APG) and Vazquez (7.4). Idaho St has seen SIX players participate in all 19 games (21-plus minutes). A trio of players average in double digits, led by guards Cook (14.6) and Ford (10.9) plus SF Parker (10.7 & 5.5). The 6-foot Ford leads the team in rebounding at 7.3 and fellow guard Smellie adds 9.2 PPG. Montana opened 0-4 but was back to 8-8 on Feb 4, before losing FOUR of five, including THREE in a row entering this contest. Idaho St also opened 0-4 but in stark contrast to Montana, has gone 12-3 since Dec 23. Not sure why Montana is the road favorite here, as the Grizzlies are 5-9 in Big Sky play while the Bengals are 7-3. I'm "all over" the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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02-25-21 | UCLA v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Utah at 8:00 ET. Mick Cronin made NINE consecutive NCAA Tourney appearances at Cincy, as his Bearcats posted a 235-78 (.751) record in that span. He moved to Westwood last season and his Bruins got better as the year progressed and were playing their best ball when the season was shut down. The Bruins are 16-5 this season and at 12-3 in the Pac 12, are challenging USC (13-3) for the conference championship while on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament berth. Larry Krystkowiak led Montana to back-to-back NCAA berths in his two seasons at his alma mater and then took the Utah job to begin the 2011-12 season. He had losing seasons in his first two years but then led his team to an average of 23.4 wins per season over the next five with postseason berths in each one (3 NIT and 2 NCAA). However, the Utes opened this season off seasons of just 17 and 16 wins. Utah is just 9-10 overall so far and at 6-9, has plummeted toward the bottom of the Pac 12 standings and would need a March Madness miracle to earn an NCAA invite. UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Feb 6 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging between 9.1 and 13.8 PPG. PG Campbell (11.1 & 5.7 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Jaquez (13.8 & 4.2), the 6-6 Juzang (11.9) and the 6-6 Bernard (9.1 & 4,6). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.3 & 5.5) up front. Utah lost Both Gach to Minnesota (transfer) but returned four starters. The 6-6 Allen led the team in scoring last season and leads in scoring (17.2) and rebounding (6.3) this season. Guard Alfonso Plummer (13.0) is the only other double digit scorer. Utah really misses the 6-8 Jantunen (8.5 & 4.1), who last played on Feb 11, but the 7-0 Carlson (8.9 & 4.6) and the 6-9 Battin (6.5 & 3.7) are solid players up front. Gach liked to play PG and his leaving opened that role up to Jones (4.9 & 4.1 APG) but he now has an arm injury. Freshman Larsson (7.8) was coming off the bench but now starts. UCLA is the better team but remember, the Bruins were only able to eke out a 72-70 win over Utah at Pauley Pavilion back on New Year's Eve. The Bruins are 6-3 since Jan 16 but four of those wins have come by a combined margin of just 14 points, hence UCLA's 1-8 ATS mark in that span. Yes, a "W" will mean a cover for UCLA here but the team's overall 'shaky' play leads me to believe the Utes will get the SU win. Good luck...Larry |
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02-24-21 | Alabama v. Arkansas -1 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (SEC) is on Arkansas at 9:00 ET. Nate Oats went 96-43 in four years at Buffalo, winning 27 and 32 games in his final two seasons (won 1st round NCAA game each one) He took over at Alabama last season (16-15) but his team is 18-5 in the current season, including 13-1 in the SEC. The Crimson Tide are No. 6 in the latest AP poll (highest since being ranked No. 4 in the 2006-07 season) and their "breakthrough season" could hit another milestone this week with a chance to clinch at least a share of the conference's regular-season title for the first time in 19 years! Eric Musselman had a forgettable three-year stint as Golden State's head coach (108-138 / zero playoff appearances) but he had quite a run coaching Nevada, capturing the CBI title in his first season, then winning 28, 29 and 29 games making the "Big Dance in each of his final three seasons. He was 201-2 last season (1st at Arkansas) but his Razorbacks are 17-5 (9-4 in the SEC), right behind Alabama in second place tied with LSU. Alabama owns a terrific trio of guards in sophomore Shackelford (14.5 & 4.), senior Petty (13.0 & 5.1) and freshman Quinerly (11.7). 6-8 senior Jones (11.7 & 5.7) is the team's top frontcourt player. Arkansas also features four double-digit scorers in 6-6 freshman Moody (16.2 & 5.6) plus guards Notae (12.5) and Tate (11.1-3.6-4.3). The 6-9 Smith (11.8 & 6.4) is a graduate transfer from Indiana and is the team's top frontcourt player. Back on Jan 16 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama routed Arkansas 90-59 but since then, Arkansas has won all SEVEN of its SEC games (6-1 ATS). Revenge works here! Good luck...Larry |
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02-24-21 | Raptors v. Heat -2 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Mia Heat at 8:05 ET. It's the Raptors and Heat tonight in Miami. Toronto won the NBA title two years ago and last season had the second-best regular season record next to Milwaukee. However, Toronto has been forced to play its 'home' games in Tampa due to COVID travel restrictions with Canada and the Raptors opened 2-8. They were still just 7-12 through Jan 29 but despite a 'home' loss to Philly last night, are 9-4 their last 13 games (now 16-16 on the season). Miami made it to the NBA Finals last year after bonding in the playoff bubble, posting the best pointspread mark of any playoff team (16-5 ATS). However, a three-game winning streak (all on the road) still leaves the Heat at just 14-17 (12-18-1 ATS). Miami is currently 10th in the East, which would allow them to 'sneak into' the NBA's postseason "Play-In" round Philadelphia ended Toronto's four-game win streak with a 109-102 win in Tampa. The Raptors played a fourth straight game without Kyle Lowry (17.7-5.4-6.4), who has a sprained left thumb. Norman Powell (17.3) led the Raptors with 24 points and Pascal Siakam (20.6-7.7-4.8) added 22. VanVleet (19.8-4.5-6.7) was left off the All-Star Game reserves roster on Tuesday snub?) but frontcourt players Anunoby (13.9 & 5.90 and Boucher (13.3 & 6.5) has been strong contributors all season. Adebayo (19.6-9.5-5.5) and Butler (19.1-7.6-7.6) also got snubbed, leaving Miami without an All-Star for the first time since 2017 (both were All-Stars last year). The bigger news is that Herro (16.9-6.1-3.8) missed Miami's last game with a hip injury and is listed as questionable. Vet Goran Dragic (14.4 & 5.3) has an ankle injury and hasn't played since Feb 5 but is listed as questionable for the Raptors game. Both could play. However, even without Dragic and Herro (as well as Avery Bradley and Meyers Leonard, who are both out longer term), the Heat have shown they have enough firepower to win big games, such as their victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night. Tough spot for Toronto off two games in three nights vs Philly and now playing a third game in FOUR nights at Miami. I feel that the Heat are starting to "come together" and I expect them to win handily here. Good luck...Larry |
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02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Ind Pacers at 7:35 ET. All are familiar with the "fall from grace" of the Warriors, going from FIVE straight appearances in the NBA finals (three titles) to the NBA's worst record (15-50) in last year's pandemic-shortened season. The 17-15 Warriors visit 15-14 Indiana playing for the FOURTH and final time on a six-day trip. All three Golden State games in the past five days have gone to the wire, including the Warriors' 114-106 victory in New York on Tuesday. The Pacers are back on the court for the first time since Feb 17. Curry (30.2-5.4-6.2), Wiggins (17.6 & 4.8) and Oubre (15.1 & 6.0) have led the way for the Warriors this season. Curry led ten way with 37 points against the Knicks (Oubre and Wiggins combined for 35) but the best news was that the team's No. 1 pick (2nd overall of the 2020 draft), James Wiseman (12.2 & 5.9), returned for the first time since Jan 30 (11-game absence caused by a sprained wrist). He played just 16 minutes but scored 14 points. Draymond Green (7-12-9) also bounced back effectively after his late ejection against the Hornets contributed to the narrow defeat last Saturday. The Pacers' unexpected time off was due to games against Houston (weather-related) and San Antonio (COVID-related) being postponed. Head coach Nate Bjorkgren was happy to give his guys a break while also using additional practice time to fine-tune an offensive attack that had averaged 120.5 points in winning THREE of its previous four games. PG Brogdon (21.6-4.8-6.6) and PF Sabonis (21.5 & 5.7) are having excellent season, while center Turner (13.2 & 6.6), SF McDermott (13.1 PPG on 51.1% shooting) and guard Justin Holiday (11.5 & 4.2) round out the current starting-five. T.J. Warren (foot surgery) and Caris LeVert (kidney operation) remain sidelined. Backup PG McConnell (5.8 & 6.6 APG) plus SG Lamb are also quality contributors. Lamb's return from injury is a BIG deal. He has averaged 12.4 PPG (on 50.8% shooting) in his 16 games back since tearing his ACL last February. These teams met back on Jan 12 in San Francisco under polar-opposite circumstances. On that night, Indiana was the side enduring a back-to-back on the road while Golden State was well rested, having spent two straight weeks at home. However, the Pacers won 104-95 that night and I believe will win just as easily tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-21 | Ole Miss v. Missouri -3 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Missouri at 9:00 ET. Kermit Davis is in his third season at Ole Miss. His first team won 20 games but last season's team won just 15, going 6-12 in the SEC (12th of 14 teams). Davis was critical of his team saying that it couldn't close out games. "We had seven games in SEC play where we had leads but couldn't hold them." Ole Miss is 12-9 (7-7 SEC) as it visits Columbia, Mo tonight to take on the Missouri Tigers. Cuonzo Martin's were coming off back-to-back losing seasons of 15-17 and 15-16 but are 14-6 this season and Ranked No. 24, although they are only 7-7 in SEC play. Ole Miss had a four-game winning streak snapped Saturday, losing a rematch to rival Miss St 66-56 at home in Oxford 66-56. The loss stalled the Rebels' late push for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. "We just didn't have our best edge, and we didn't play like a team that was desperate chasing the (tournament) bubble tonight," head coach Kermit Davis said. PG Shuler (15.7 & 3.5 APG) leads the team in scoring, with just two others chipping in double digits. They are 6-8 Arizona graduate transfer Romello White (10.8 & 5.4) and junior guard Joiner (10.8). Missouri's starting-five includes leading scorer Pinson (14.6-3.0-3.1), three Smiths (not related) and the 6-7 Brown (7.7 & 6.0). Guards Dru Smith (14.1-3.7-3.6), and Mark Smith (10.0) plus the 6-7 Mitchell Smith (4.3 & 5.) round to the Smith 'delegation.' 6-10 center Jeremiah Tilmon returned after missing two games due to a death in his family and scored 17 points on 5-for-5 shooting from the floor and 7-for-7 from the free-throw line. Tilman (13.1 & 7.6) will likely return to the starting lineup shortly, as is the team's best frontcourt player. While Ole Miss was having its four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, Missouri ended a three-game slide with a 93-78 rout at South Carolina. Here, the Tigers will look to avenge their worst loss of the season, as they fell 80-59 at Ole Miss back on Feb 10, getting outscored 38-22 in the second half. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-21 | Notre Dame v. Louisville -3 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Louisville at 7:00 ET. Notre Dame rolled into Syracuse averaging 81.4 points during their previous five games (only loss being a two-point setback at Georgia Tech two weeks ago when they blew a 17-point lead) and suffered a similar fate as it did back in Atlanta on Feb 6. The Fighting Irish led Syracuse 55-35 with 16:49 to go, in the game but managed just 12 points the rest of the way in a 75-67 loss. Notre Dame (9-11 / 6-8 in the ACC) visits Louisville (11-5 / 6-4 in the ACC), as the Cardinals are looking to 'shake off' a 99-54 rout at North Carolina on Saturday. Notre Dame bounced back from a 14-win season two seasons ago to go 20-12 last year but lost PF Mooney, who averaged 16.2 & 12.7. Mike Brey is now in his 21st season at South Bend but this year's team has struggled, until its recent spurt. PG Hubb (13.7 & 6.2 APG) and SG Goodwin (12.5 & 5.3) are a solid backcourt duo plus the 6-10 Laszewski leads the team in scoring (15.0) and rebounding (7.8). Stanford transfer Ryan (10.1) and Wertz (7.8) play on the perimeter with Hubb and Goodwin, while 6-11 UConn transfer Durham (10.2 & 5.2) has been a solid complement up front to Laszewski. Chris Mack took over at Xavier for the 2009-10 season when Sean Miller took the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to eight NCAA tourneys in nine seasons before moving to Louisville. The Cards went 20-14 in his first season (NCAA bid) and were 24-7 in his second year, when the season was shut down in March (AP ranked them 14th in its final poll). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's Louisville team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.1-5.3-4.5. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He's joined by returning guard Johnson (12.7-5.9-3.4) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 9.6 & 7.6 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 9.8 & 7.6. True freshman guard Davis (7.9 & 3.4) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.0 & 3.4). Not sure how Notre Dame bounces back from its COMPLETE co;;apse at Syracuse, while the Cards should have an extra 'bounce in their step' in returning to their home arena, after allowing North Carolina to shoot 60.9% on Saturday, Louisville's first action in 19 days due to COVID-19 concerns within the program. Louisville shot just 32.8% at Chapel Hill, including 1 of 16 on threes. That WON'T repeat itself here! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-21 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 69-53 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Va Tech at 7:00 ET. Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons have not gone well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets sit 11-8 (7-6 in the ACC) with four games left in their regular season. Va Tech head coach Mike Young is in his second season with the school, after a record-setting 17-year tenure as the head coach at Wofford. The Terriers posted a 30-5 overall record in 2018-19, including a perfect 18-0 mark in Southern Conference play, and registered a convincing 84-68 win over Seton Hall in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Young built the Terriers into one of the Southern Conference's preeminent programs and a perennial NCAA Tournament participant. He guided Wofford to five NCAA Tournament berths over his last 10 seasons and five Southern Conference championships. The Hokies were just 16-16 overall in Young's first season at Blacksburg, losing almost two-thirds of their ACC games (7-13), but are currently 14-4 (8-3 in the ACC) and ranked 16th in the nation. Georgia Tech is hoping to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010 but the Yellow Jackets will need a strong finish. Ga Tech has a solid five-man rotation but the Yellow Jackets have little depth. Returning PG Alvarado (16.7-3.7-4.2) and SG Devoe (13.7-4.4-3.1) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright (16.3 & 7.5) present an excellent trio. 6-7 USC transfer Usher (10.7 & 4.3) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (7.7) adds to the team's backcourt depth. Landers Nolley was selected to the ACC All-Freshman Team in leading the Hokies in scoring (15.5 PPG) last season but after the season he announced he was transferring to Memphis. More bad news came when the 6-6 Horne (7.6 & 4.2) also transferred. Sophomore guard Tyrece Radford (10.2 & 6.2) was both the team's leading returning scorer AND rebounder! Radford is averaging 11.1 & 6.3 RPG and the 6-9 Alleyne (9.9) has made excellent progress in his sophomore season. Two 6-7 transfers start up front The 6-7 Keve Aluma (15.7 & 7.6) followed Young from Wofford and is Va Tech's best player this season, while 6-7 Delaware transfer Justyn Mutts (8.9 & 6.6) has been solid. Returning guards Cone (9.2), Cottoor (9.2) and Bede (4.4 & 3.0 APG) have all added valuable contributions. Radford was suspended back in late January (no date of return, if any) and Cone is dealing with an ankle injury for Va Tech. Ga Tech is coming off an impressive win against Miami, leading 48-18 at halftime and winding up with a 27-point victory, its largest margin of victory in an ACC road game in program history. However, the Yellow jackets have won just TWO road games this game (the other was at a 5-15 Nebraska team. Also note that Miami is a funk, having lost SEVEN of eight. Winning at Va Tech is a 'horse of a different color!' Va Tech is 9-1 at home this season, losing only in a shocking 75-55 upset at the hands of Penn St back on Dec 8. Tech has won SEVEN straight at home since, including three wins over ranked teams, highlighted by an impressive 65-51 win over then-No. 8 UVa. The Hokies have had their last three games postponed because of COVID-19 issues (last played Feb 6) and hopefully, Cone's ankle has had time to heal. Even if he's a "no-go," the "PRICE is RIGHT" on Va Tech here at home. Ga Tech doesn't win away from home vs this class of opponent! Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-21 | Oregon v. USC -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on USC at 9:00 ET. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). Oregon is 14-4 overall (9-3 in the Pac 12) as it visits Los Angeles to take on USC. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans have won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season. USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season but despite seeing its seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday against Arizona (lost 81-72), the Trojans are 18-4, including 12-3 in the Pac 12 (tied with UCLA for first place). PG Payton Pritchard (20.5-4.3-5.5) was a HUGE loss for Oregon plus Altman also lost SG Mathis (8.5) and 6-7 SF Juiston (7.9 & 6.3). Coming to the rescue for Oregon this season have come three transfers. The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers, the 6-6 Eric Williams who transferred from Duquesne and 6-6 Figueroa from St John's. Omoruyi leads the team with 17.2 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG), Williams is adding 11.0 & 6.1 and Figueroa 10.7 & 6.4. That's a strong frontcourt, even with the loss of 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8), who suffered a torn ACL in mid-December. 6-8 guard Duarte (17.1 & 4.9) is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaging 11.3-3.3-3.3 in six games, the last five being Oregon wins! Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. Evan Mobley has lived up to the hype, averaging 17.1 & 8.8. He joins his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who has added 9.6 & 7.7. Peterson (9.1 & 4.7) is a 6-8 swingman from Rice and joins guards Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St. Eaddy is averaging 13.8 PPG and White 7.2. Guard Goodwin (6.0 & 4.0) comes off the bench to give USC a solid six-man rotation. USC had won 12 of 13 before losing to Arizona and it's "bounce-back" time here. This contest is the only matchup between Oregon and USC in the regular season, and it was rescheduled from Jan 30 due to COVID-19 protocols. The Ducks have three fewer wins than UCLA and USC but have the same amount of Pac 12 losses (three).This is a BIG game, as USC looks for at least a share of its first conference title since 1985. The 81 points USC allowed to Arizona on Saturday was the most the Trojans have allowed in regulation in 2020-21. The Trojans are allowing just 64.4 PPG on the season on 38.5% shooting, which ranks 4th-best in the nation. USC gets this all-important "W." Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-21 | Grizzlies v. Mavs -5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Southwest) is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. Memphis opened just 2-6 but then ran off FIVE in a row before five straight games were postponed due to COVID. The Grizzlies returned and won two more (now a seven-game win streak) to reach 9-6 but have since fallen back to 13-13 by losing SEVEN of 11. Dallas was expected to be a solid playoff contender this season (broke a three-season playoff drought by going 43-32 last season) but that hasn't been the case. The Mavericks lost SIX straight from the end of January into the beginning of February to fall to 8-13. However, Dallas finally got its full complement of players back and won FIVE of six (including FOUR straight) before losing 121-118 at home to Portland on Feb 14. The Mavericks haven't played since due to inclement weather in the state of Texas. They had a home game against Detroit and a one-game trip to Houston postponed. Dallas comes in 13-15 and hasn't been at the break-even mark being 8-8 on Jan 23. Memphis gave regulars Brandon Clarke (12.9 & 5.6), Grayson Allen (10.1) and Kyle Anderson (13.8 & 6.2) the night off against the Suns on Saturday and lost 128-97! PG Morant (18.9 & 7.8 APG), center Valanciunas (16.2 & 11.0) and SG Brooks (15.8) are all having good years. There's no lack of talent for Dallas, as starting alongside PG Doncic (29.1-8.6-9.4) and center Porzingis (20.5 & 8.2) are guard Richardson (12.5) plus forwards Finney-Smith (9.1 & 4.8) and Kleber (7.1 & 5.4). SF Hardaway comes off the bench to average 16.7 PPG plus guards Brunson (11.7) and Burke (8.0) add more 'punch' off the bench. Dallas is well-rested and as noted, has its full complement of players back on the court. I still maintain that the Mavs are ready to go on a run. Lay the points in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-21 | Syracuse v. Duke -4.5 | Top | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Duke at 7:00 ET. Syracuse rallied from 20 points down to defeat visiting Notre Dame 75-67 on Saturday, marking the Orange's biggest comeback since a victory over Rutgers in January 2005. Jim Boeheim's team has won SIX of its last eight games and is now 13-6 overall (7-5 in the ACC). Duke's Mike Krzyzewski took over at Duke for the 1980-81 season and did not make the NCAA tourney in his first three seasons. However, the only TWO times Duke has missed the "Big Dance" since then was in the 1994-95 season and last season, when Duke was 25-6 but COVID shut down the season. Back in that 94-95 season, coach K coached the first 12 games of the season (9-3) before leaving the team for back surgery and to recover from exhaustion. Pete Gaudet took over as interim head coach and compiled a record of 4–15 with a mark of 2–13 in conference play. Duke finished the season with a record of 13–18 overall and in ninth place in the ACC at 2–14. Duke was 7-8 through Feb 9 this season but has won three straight, on the road at NS State and Wake Forest, plus beating No. 7 UVA this past Saturday, 66-65. Duke is 10-8 (8-6 in the ACC) Jim Boeheim's Syracuse team has FIVE players in double digits, getting production off the bench from only guard Richmond (6.7) However, the Orange do own a very good starting-five (all are averaging more than 30 minutes per game). SF Griffin is averaging 15.2 PPG and adds 6.6 RPG. The 6-7 Guerrier also averages 15.2 PG plus leads in rebounding (9.4) and adds 15.5 PPG. The 6-10 Dolezag completes the frontcourt with 11.2 & 5.4. SG Buddy Boeheim had a career-high 29 points in the win over Notre Dame and is also averaging 15.2 PPG. He's joined in the backcourt by PG Girard (10.5 & 3.5 APG). Duke opened No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but the team's Jan 12 loss at Va Tech saw 5-3 Duke (3-1 in the ACC) fall out of the AP poll on Monday. As noted above, Duke is currently 10-8, hardly worthy of top-25 consideration. Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) will play this season for the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) was taken by the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guards Stewart )12.9 & 4.1) and Roach (9.0) have played well but 6-9 freshman Johnson (11.9 & 6.5) has left the team to prepare for the NBA. One could "good Riddance," as Duke has gone on a three-game run without him. 6-9 sophomore Hurt leads the team in scoring (18.5) and rebounding (6.4), while sophomore SF Stevens (12.9 & 4.1) and senior guard Goldwire (6.3-3.1-3.8) round out Duke's main contributors. "Over the last three games, we've emphasized defense and we've changed our ball screen defense which has helped us," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "The last three games, we've really played well on the defensive end of the court and it's made a difference in us winning and losing. We have to keep going." Here's the deal. Syracuse has won on the ACC road against Boston College (3-13 / 1-9 ACC) and NC State, after it lost its best player in Daniels. In the Orange's other five road games, they've lost at Clemson, Pitt, North Carolina and UVa of the ACC plus at Rutgers (Big Ten) by an average of 15.2 PPG. Lay the points with Duke. Good luck...Larry |
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02-21-21 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Den Nuggets at 7:35 ET. The Denver Nuggets earned the title of "Comeback Kids' in last season's playoffs in the 'bubble' but opened the current season just 1-4. Denver then won 11 of 15 and ended January at 12-8. However, the Nuggets are just 4-5 in February and at 16-13 sit 7 1/2-games back in the West (No. 7 seed). If the playoffs were to begin today, Denver would be in the "Play-In" round (seeds 7 thru 10). The Hawks entered the current season off a three-year mark of 73-158 (.316) and will take the court tonight having lost FIVE losing of their last six games/ Atlanta is a modest 12-17, a record that would leave them a half-game outside of the East's No. 10 seed. |
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02-21-21 | Bryant v. Merrimack +1 | Top | 76-60 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference crusher (Northeast) is on Merrimack at 4:00 ET. Not many pay too much attention to the NEC, so here's something few, if any, will be aware of. Merrimack College was in its first season as a Division I member last season and was picked dead-last in the preseason poll. However, the Warriors would go 20-11 overall and 14-4 in conference play, becoming the first program ever to win an outright conference regular season title in its first season reclassifying to Division I. A show of hands for all who knew this? COVID has taken its toll on the NEC this season and last night in Springfield , RI, the homestanding Bryant Bulldogs eked out a 60-58 win over the visiting Warriors. Michael Green had 16 points as Bryant won its seventh consecutive home game, holding off Merrimack 60-58 on Saturday. Bryant is now 11-5 overall and 7-4 in NEC play. Merrimack fell to 8-5 and the Warriors have ONLY played conference games this season. Bryant is a high scoring team (86.4 PPG) with SIX players competing in all 16 games this season. A quartet of guards are led by Kiss (17.0-5.6-3.4) and PG Green (16.8-4.-4.2), who are joined by Childs (15.0) and Pride (13.1 & 7.1). The 6-8 Elisias plays center and just misses double digits (9.2 PPG) but leads the team in rebounding at 7.4 per game. For Merrimack, SEVEN players have competed in all 13 games, with FIVE averaging 28-plus minutes. The 6-8 Minor leads in scoring (12.6) and rebounding (9.1), while PG Watkins (12.2-4.0-4.2) is the only other player scoring in double digits. Guards Reid (9.8 & 5.2), Jensen (8.5) and Derring (7.8) round out the remaining top contributors. I noted that Bryant is a high scoring team (see above) but it should NOT have gone unnoticed that the Bulldogs were held to 60 points on their homecourt by Merrick (season-low in points for a single game). Let me add that it shouldn't have been a surprise, as Merrimack opened the season just 1-3 but before Saturday's loss, had won SEVEN of eight, holding opponents to 59.6 PPG. Head coach Joe Gallo (NEC coach of the year last season) preaches defense and late this afternoon, gets a quick rematch with Bryant, this time in North Andover, Mass on the Warriors' homecourt (Hammel Court). Wagner leads the NEC at 9-4 with Bryant at 7-4 and Merrimack at 8-5. Some quick "payback" here by the Warriors moves them ahead of Bryant, 9-5 to 7-5. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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02-20-21 | California v. Washington | Top | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Pac 12 Game of the Year is on Washington at 10:00 ET. California (8-16 overall, 3-14 Pac-12) and Washington (4-17, 3-13) play Saturday night in Seattle, with the loser taking over last-place in the Pac-12 heading into the last week of the regular season. Cal's Mark Fox had an excellent five-year run at Nevada (averaged 24.6 wins per season with three NCAA bids) but his nine-year stay at Georgia ended with just two NCAA tourneys in nine years (18.1 wins per season). He surfaced at Cal last season and the Bears were 14-18. Mike Hopkins was a longtime assistant to Jim Boeheim and he took over at Washington prior to the 2017-18 season, going 21-13 and 27-9. However, the team was just 5-17 before last season's shutdown and the current season has been a 'nightmare!' |
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02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers -3 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 8:35 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers welcome the Miami Heat to Staples Center on Saturday, as the teams square off for the first time since LA beat Miami 106-93 in Game 6 of last season's NBA Finals. Miami made a great run last season in the Orlando 'bubble,' reaching the NBA Finals before losing four games to two against the LA Lakers. The Heat's 16-5 ATS record was easily the best of any team in the postseason. However, the current season has not gone smoothly, as the Heat are not only just 12-17 but their 10-18-1 ATS record (35.7%) is the second-worst mark in the NBA. The Lakers own the NBA's second-best record at 22-8 (13-3 road record is an NBA-best) but were soundly beaten by the Brooklyn Nets 109-98 here in Staples on Thursday (no K.D. for Brooklyn). LBJ had 32 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the Lakers but they played without Dennis Schroder due to the NBA's health and safety protocols. They are also missing Anthony Davis (22.5 & 8.4), who missed his second contest after suffering a calf strain Sunday against the Denver Nuggets. A.D. isn't expected to return for at least a month. The Heat snapped a three-game losing streak with 118-110 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Thursday. Tyler Herro had 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting as SIX Miami players scored in double figures. Jimmy Butler had 13 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds for his third straight triple-double. The 6-9 Bam Adebayo also recorded a triple-double with 16 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. Adebayo (19.8-9.3-5.5) leads Miami in scoring, although Butler (19.1-7.8-7.7) is close behind. However, Butler has played in just 17 of Miami's 29 games. Herro (17.4-6.2-3.90 is the team's third-leading scorer but Miami really misses vet PG Dragic (14.4 & 5.3 APG) plus its best defensive guard Bradley (8.5). BOTH remain sidelined. Obviously, Davis' absence is a big deal and Schroder (14.2-3.6-4.3) has been a HUGE plus this season for LA. However, no one is surprised that LBJ (25.9-8.2-7.9) hasn't missed a single game and the Lakers will give more "PT" up front to PFs Harrell (13.2 & 6.2) and Morris (4.4 & 3.4) plus SF Kuzma (11.0 & 6.0) with A.D. out. Not sure who will start alongside Caldwell-Pope (8.5) in the backcourt but Vogel can choose between Horton-Tucker (6.8), Caruso (5.4) and Matthews (5.0). VERY tough "situation" for Miami here, playing its SIXTH contest (in 10 days) of a seven-game road trip (Miami's last home game was Feb 9) against the defending champs coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Nets (on TNT for all to see). Lay the points with LA! Good luck...Larry |
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02-20-21 | Louisville v. North Carolina -5 | Top | 54-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* ACC Showdown is on North Carolina at 6:00 ET. To say the least, it has NOT been a vintage year for the ACC. The NCAA began seeding the entire field for the 1979 tourney and in every year but ONE (1990), the ACC has had at least one No. 1 or No. 2 seed. The 2021 tourney could make that TWO times since sending began. Louisville (11-4 / 6-3 ACC) and North Carolina (13-7 / 7-5 ACC) will likely make the NCAA field but are certainly not 'locks' to get it. The schools meet tonight in Chapel Hill for the only scheduled meeting between the two teams this regular season. Louisville will be playing just its second game of February, as the Cardinals have not played since posting a 74-58 victory over Georgia Tech back on Feb. 1. Their last four scheduled games were postponed because of COVID-19 issues in the program (even head coach Chris Mack was sidelined). Mack took over at Xavier for the 2009-10 season when Sean Miller took the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to eight NCAA tourneys in nine seasons before moving to Louisville. The Cards went 20-14 in his first season (NCAA bid) and were 24-7 in his second year, when the season was shut down in March (AP ranked them 14th in its final poll). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's Louisville team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.4-5.6-4.9. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He joined by returning guard Johnson (13.1-6.1-3.4) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 9.6 & 7.5 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 10.1 & 7.6. True freshman guard Davis (8.2 & 3.5) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.0 & 3.5) all contribute. North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll. The Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking. Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 and as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG for North Carolina. The Tar Heels' strength is their depth. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (11.7 & 7.6), the 6-10 Brooks (10.3 & 7.4) and the 6-11 Sharpe (9.8 & 7.8), while the backcourt goes five-deep. The group includes Love (10.5-2.6-3.6), Davis (7.9), Walton (7.4), Black (6.2 & 5.3) and Platek (4.6). North Carolina draws a Louisville team that hasn't played in almost THREE weeks with some players possibly dealing with COVID issues. North Carolina remains unbeaten at home (7-0) and I'm willing to lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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02-20-21 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 79-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Pittsburgh at 4:00 ET. Florida St head coach Leonard Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that had produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools heading into the current season, behind only Duke and Virginia since 2016. Florida State was 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic last March but entered this season losing three key players from a team.PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0), who were all chosen in the NBA draft. However, guard MJ Walker is back and leads with 13.9 PPG and he's surrounded by a talented group. Pittsburgh's Jeff Capel is in his third season with Panthers and is off years of just 14 and 16 wins. Pitt comes in just 9-8 (5-7 in the ACC) and enters having SIX of its past seven games. Pittsburgh is led by the 6-6 Justin Champagnie, who averages 18.7 & 11.5 (he'll be the best player on the floor). PG Johnson (14.1 & 5.9 APG) has two solid backcourt partners in Toney (14.4 & 5.9) and Horton (9.8). Here's the rub. Pitt has NOT played well recently but is capable. It's 3-1 SU its last four as a home underdog, winning outright over Syracuse, Duke and Va Tech. The Panthers are catching FSU off its HUGE win over UVa (24th straight home win over an ACC opponent) but note that with COVID-19 issues shuffling the Seminoles' schedule multiple times, they have played only THREE road games and gone 1-2. "Upset Alert!" |
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02-20-21 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse -2.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Syracuse at 2:00 ET. Syracuse is 12-6 (6-5 ACC) was looking for a third straight on Wednesday but its visit to Louisville was postponed hours before the opening tip. It was the fifth game this season Syracuse had postponed. 9-10 Notre Dame (6-7 in the ACC) will visit Syracuse Saturday and has closed within one game of .500 on the season by winning FOUR of its last five games. |
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02-19-21 | Toledo +2 v. Buffalo | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (MAC) is on Toledo at 9:00 ET. Tod Kowalczyk (was the head coach at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay from 2002–10, before accepting the head coaching position at Toledo on March 30 2010. This marks his 11th season at Toledo, having won 20 games or more four times (high of 27 in the 2013-14 season) and has captured four MAC-West titles. However, the Rockets have never won the MAC tourney under Kowalczyk, therefore they've never received an NCAA bid. This season, that may just change. Nate Oates came to Buffalo for the 2015-16 season and he led the Bulls to 27 wins and 32 wins in his final two seasons (advanced to the second round of the Big Dance each season) but then left for Alabama. The Tide went 16-15 last season but currently the Tide are 17-5 (SEC-best 12-1) and ranked 8th in the nation. Taking over for Oates was his assistant Jim Whitesell, who was head coach at Loyola-Chicago from 2004-11. The Bulls surprised last season going 20-12 before the shutdown but are just 9-6 (7-4 in the MAC). Toledo is currently 17-6 and 12-3 in MAC play. There are no East/West divisions this season and the MAC tourney (in Cleveland) will feature just EIGHT teams. Toledo has the inside track for the No. 1 seed (Akron is 11-3 and Ken St 10-4) and head to Buffalo Friday night for the lone regular season meeting between the two teams. The Rockets average 80.7 PPG with all five starters in double digits. Toledo starts a trio of guards in Jackson (17.2-5.6-6.0), Littleson (13.6) and Rollins (13.3 & 5.6), while the 6-7 Shumate (12.5 & 4.4) and the 6-6 Millner (12.3 & 6.4) start up front. Guard Saunders (7.40 and the 6-8 Acunzo (6.1 & 3.4) are the top reserves. Buffalo has seen two games canceled and four postponed this season (note: in contrast, Toledo has had just ONE game postponed) but comes in on a three-game winning streak in which the Bulls have won by 20, 24 and 32 points (more in a bit). The Bulls do NOT have Toledo's depth but do have a quality 'Core 4' in forwards Williams (17.9 & 7.4) and Mballo (14.8 & 9.8) plus guards Graves (15.0-5.7-3.7) and Segu (13.9). No other player averages more than 6.5 PPG but Buffalo can score with Toledo, averaging 82.2 PPG. I noted Buffalo's three straight wins by impressive margins but will add here that those victories have come over 7-10 Ball St, 8-9 Miami-Ohio and 4-13 Western Michigan. I see this as Toledo's breakthrough season under Kowalczyk and that fact that this team has avoided the COVID issues that die]disrupted so many schools' seasons, is another "good sign" that I may just be right. Good luck...Larry |
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02-19-21 | Hawks v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Atlanta Hawks ended a four-game losing streak by beating the Celtics 122-114 on Wednesday in Boston. PG Trae Young scored 16 of his 40 points in the fourth quarter, eight of which came after the Celtics cut the lead to six with 2:38 remaining. Boston PG Kemba Walker did not play ("load management") and center Daniel Theis missed his second game with a sprained right index finger. The two teams are right back at it tonight at TD Garden. The Hawks entered the current season off a three-year mark of 73-158 (.316) and will take the court tonight at a modest 12-16 (.429). The Hawks have a bevy of young stars led by Young (26.5 & 9.3 APG), who is joined by PF Collins (18.2 & 7.6), SF Hunter (17.2 & 5.4) plus SGs Huerter (12.0-3.6-3.8) and Reddish (11.5 & 4.0). Former Houston center has been everything Atlanta has hoped for, averaging 14.3 & 14.0. Boston's 'Dynamic' duo of Brown and Tatum had been the team's top-two producers, with Brown (25.9-5.5-3.6) currently slightly ahead of Tatum (25.8-7.0-4.7) entering this contest. PG Kemba Walker didn't get on the court this season until Jan 17 and while he's averaged 16.4-3.7-4.0 in 13 games, Boston is only 5-8 in that span. Boston really misses Smart (13.1 & 6.) but has depth in the backcourt and the frontcourt. On the injury front, Atlanta's Hunter remains with a knee injury. On the Boston side, Theis remains questionable but Walker is expected to be back. Brown scored 22 points Wednesday but he is dealing with knee soreness (??). Predicting (guessing?) which players "play or don't play" in situations like Brown is an impossible task (often are game-time decisions). I'll back Boston in this bounce-back spot, as Atlanta's Wednesday win ended a SEVEN-game losing streak against the Celtics and was the first Atlanta win in Boston since April 8, 2018. Good luck...Larry |