Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* AFC Game of the Week is on the Den Broncos at 8:20 ET. The Denver Broncos surprised most by opening 3-0 but the team 'limps' into Cleveland Thursday night on a three-game slide, after a 34-24 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The Browns made the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and opened the season by almost beating the Chiefs in KC. The Browns led throughout but gave way in the 4th quarter. Cleveland responded with three straight wins but enters this contest off a 47-42 shootout loss in LA vs the Chargers and a humbling 37-14 to the now 6-0 Cardinals! |
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10-20-21 | 76ers v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the NO Pelicans at 8:10 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs, As for the New Orleans Pelicans, they were a HUGE disappointment, finishing 31-41 (two games below the playoff 'cut line') despite the presence of 'King Zion.' The two teams opener their respective seasons tonight in New Orleans with BOTH playing without a marque player. Ben Simmons (14.3-7.2-6.9) took most of the blame for Philly's playoff loss to Atlanta but backed off his holdout and reported to Philadelphia for a mandatory COVID test Oct 11, then passed through the NBA protocols and returned to practice Sunday. However, Sixers head coach Doc Rivers suspended Simmons for one game because of "conduct detrimental to the team" on Tuesday. Moving back to New Orleans, forward Zion Williamson (27.0 & 7.2) remains out indefinitely as he works his way back from offseason foot surgery. "I just thought he was a distraction today," Rivers said Tuesday after practice. "I didn't think he wanted to do what everybody else was doing. It was early. It wasn't a big deal. I just told him he should leave. We went on with practice." The Sixers were the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, but were knocked out of the playoffs at home when the Atlanta Hawks prevailed 103-96 in Game 7 of a conference semifinal series. Simmons averaged just 9.9 points in the series, made one-third of his free throws and passed up a layup down the stretch of the decisive game. He later demanded a trade. And the saga continues. However, Philadelphia is expected to be one of the top teams in the NBA again, with returning starters Joel Embiid (28.5 & 10.6), Seth Curry, Tobias Harris (19.5 & 6.8) and Danny Green. New Orleans' starting lineup also is uncertain as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe and bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (23.8-4.9-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Josh Hart (9.0 & 8.2) is also a very UNDERVALUED contributor. Philly's been a terrific home team the last few seasons but has been vulnerable on the road. I believe Valanciunas (15.0 & 9.8 LY with Memphis) will make a big difference this season for the Pelicans plus Simmons' offseason contract dispute has been a huge distraction for the 76ers. I think they'll struggle with consistency to begin the season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | Rockets +6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 106-124 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Season Opener is on the Hou Rockets at 8:10 ET. Houston was a Western Conference-worst 17-55 last year, while Minnesota wasn't much better at 23-59. The Rockets initiated a full rebuild following the early-season trade of James Harden and will open the new season with an exciting, albeit overwhelmingly youthful, roster. As for the T-wolves, they missed the playoffs for a third consecutive season and posted a losing record for the 15th time in 16 years! Minnesota fired its lead basketball executive (Gersson Rosas) just prior to the start of training camp and head coach Chris Finch will enter his first full season on the bench trying to steer a long wayward ship on course (Finch is Houston' FIFTH coach in just seven years!). The Rockets had a great haul in the recent draft with SG Jalen Green (No. 2 overall pick bypassed college to play in last year's G-League) plus the 6-10 Alperen Sengun (Turkey), the 6-8 Usman Garuba (Spain), and guard Josh Christopher (ASU). 2nd-year head coach Stephen Silas needs to blend that youth with veterans like Wall, Gordon, Augustin and Theis. A real player to watch will be Christian Wood, who averaged 21.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG in 41 games before getting hurt. The good news? Wood comes into this season with a clean bill of health. Karl-Anthony Towns is a force to be reckoned with, coming off a season in which averaged 24.9 PPG and 10.6 RPG. SG Edwards (19.3 & 4.9) and PG Russell (19.0 & 5.8 APG) are both quality players. Minnesota didn't have a lot of room under its current salary structure to do much in the offseason but the potential for growth might come defensively (Minnesota allowed 117.3 PPG last season). Offseason additions of Patrick Beverley and Taurean Prince to Jaden McDaniels, Josh Okogie and Jarred Vanderbilt could help elevate Minnesota in the defensive rankings. Taking it all in, I see this game as a coin flip and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points. Excluding only the Sacramento Kings, the Timberwolves have become the NBA's picture of dysfunction and discord. Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 121-132 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Non-Conference Game of the Week is on the Cle Cavaliers at 7:05 ET. LBJ 'flew the coop' for a second time in Cleveland, after the 2017-198 season. The Cavs have gone 19-63, 19-46 and 22-50 in the three years since. However, "The Evan Mobley Era" in Cleveland Cavaliers history tips off Wednesday night when the Cavs visit the Grizzlies in Memphis. The 6-11 Mobley had a five-star high school career and then burst onto the national scene by leading USC into the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight last March (averaged 16.4 PPG on 57.8% shooting while grabbing 8.7 RPG ). Memphis finished last season 38-34 (42-30 ATS record was among the best in the NBA) and ended a three-year playoff drought (note: that drought was preceded by a seven-year postseason run!) Mobley was the third overall pick was kept under wraps most of the preseason, averaging just 25.5 minutes per game, but nonetheless still found time to lead the Cavaliers in rebounds (7.6) and blocks (1.6). Jarrett Allen (13.2 & 9.9) was retained on a long-term deal to serve as Mobley's 'bodyguard' plus the 6-11 Markkanen was acquired in a trade in August after having spent his first four seasons in Chicago, averaging 15.6 & & 7.1. Veteran PG Ricky Rubio (4th team, averaging 11.0 PPG and 7.6 APG in his career) has been imported to help inspire a young backcourt. That backcourt is led by Sexton (24.3 & 4.4) and Garland (17.4 & 6.1 APG). The Grizzlies' Jaren Jackson Jr. came into the league with much the same hype as Mobley when Memphis made him the No. 4 pick in 2018. The former Michigan State star has averaged 15.4 points in his first three seasons. Jackson missed the Grizzlies' first 56 games last year while rehabbing a knee injury suffered the previous season. He wound up taking the court just 16 times, the last two of which being arguably his best, when he averaged 18.0 points in losses to Utah in Games 4 and 5 of their first-round playoff series PG Ja Morant (19.1 & 7.4 APG) is terrific plus Dillon Brooks (17.2) and Kyle Anderson (12.4 & 5.7) are also back. A big change is the addition of center Steven Adams (just 7.6 & 8.9), who was swapped for Jonas Valanciunas (17.1 & 12.5) in a trade with the Pelicans, which I feel is a downgrade. Cleveland made some nice moves in the offseason and I expect it to compete on Opening Night. Yes, the Grizzlies still have their key pieces in place, but I think there'll be an adjustment period with Valanciunas out of the picture. Interestingly, the Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games played in this building. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic play is on the Ten Titans at 8:15 ET. Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made the AFC championship game where they lost to KC. big things were expected in 2021 but the Bills fell apart in the 4th quarter of Week 1 in a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Bills have brushed aside that loss by winning FOUR in a row, going 4-0 ATS. The Bills lead the NFL with a scoring average at 34.4 PPG, while allowing a league-low 12.8 PPG. That gives them a NFL-best point differential of 21.6 PPG. Last Monday, the Bills avenged their AFC championship game loss at KC with a dominating 38-20 win over the Chiefs and now play a second straight primetime game looking to avenge a 42-16 loss at Tennessee in Week 5 of 2020. Tennessee opened the 2021 season by getting humbled at home 38-17 by Arizona, a loss that looked shocking at the time. Of course, now that Arizona is 6-0, he doesn't look so bad. The Titans have won THREE of four since Week 1 but the lone loss was a 'UGLY' one, falling 27-24 in OT to the Jets (New York's lone win of the 2021 season). The Bills defense has been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (12.8 PGG) and in total defense (251.8 YPG). QB Josh Allen developed into an elite QB in 2020 and hasn't let up this season, completing 62.3% for 1,370 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs (102.5 QB rating). He also has 188 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 2 TDs), to contribute to a running game averaging 140.4 YPG (5th). Singletary (284 yards / 5.2 YPC) and Moss (184 yards / 4.0 YPC) are a solid RB duo. Buffalo's receiving depth is impressive, led by WRs Diggs (28 catches), the ageless Sanders (19 catches / 16.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Beasley (26 catches), plus TE Knox (18 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs). Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill is no Allen but he's a quality QB, he enters completing 63.6% for 1,251 yards with six TDs and three INTs. The second-ranked rushing attack (167.8 YPG) is led by Henry, who has run for 640 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. The Titans' receiving corps pales in comparison to Buffalo's and the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG (24th) on 377.4 YPG (23rd). On paper, the Bills are clearly the better team but this is the NFL. The Bills are primed for a letdown in this difficult road venue, especially after smashing the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in primetime last weekend. Let me add that the Bills also have their bye week next week, followed by a favorable home matchup against the Dolphins and road contests at Jacksonville and the Jets. QB Ryan Tannehill says the team's offense is trending in the right direction. The Titans are starting to heal up, especially some key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones is practicing after missing two straight games with an injured hamstring and while A.J. Brown isn't yet at 100 percent, he played last week despite a hamstring problem. Of course, Henry is the key. He has already tied his career-long streak rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games and another would tie Eddie George's string of five in 1998. Henry also has run for at least 50 yards in 30 straight games, the third-longest streak in the NFL since 1960, trailing only Priest Holmes (38 in 2001-03) and Chris Carson (31 in 1993-95). Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the pathetic AFC South and should have more than a little bit of confidence after last year's beatdown of Buffalo. Upset alert? Maybe but taking the points is the way to go. Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers -5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET. Russell Wilson underwent surgery Oct 8 on his right middle finger because of an injury sustained the previous night in a 26-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He had started all 165 games (regular season and playoffs) since arriving as a rookie in 2012 but suffered a ruptured tendon in what is often referred to as mallet finger and a fracture/dislocation of the joint at the top of the finger. Wilson is almost certain to miss the Sunday Night game at Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will make his first start since 2017. Wilson was completing 72.0% with 10 TDs and a QB rating of 125.3. According to Pete Carroll, there's NOT much to worry about. "Everybody believes that (Smith is) going to come through and do a great job, just like he showed the other night," Carroll said. "So we need to support him and give him the help he needs by playing good ball around him and coaching real well around him and be really excited to see what the outcome is. I think there's a lot of things that change in a young guy's mind when he gets this opportunity, but (Smith has) been there a lot. It's just been awhile. ... He loves the fact that he's got this chance to help his team. That's why he's been here. He's been here for this opportunity when it does arise." OK, Pete. Smith has played in 42 NFL games, making 31 starts (teams are 12-19). He's completing just 57.9% (that's close to 72%, right) with a TD-to-INT ratio of 30/37 and a QB rating of 73.0 (just barely below 125.0, right?). Wilson has led Seattle to playoff appearances in EIGHT of his first nine years in the league but at 2-3, the Seahawks are in some trouble here in 2021, as Arizona (5-0) is the NFL's lone unbeaten and the Rams are 4-1, having already beaten Seattle (Rams also have given Tampa Bay its lone loss). RB Carson had run for 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDS but missed the previous game (neck injury). He has missed practice time this week, but Carroll said he was encouraged by Carson's progress. Have to give it to Pete, he's an optimist. WRs Lockett (15.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Metcalf (145.3 YPC / 5 TDs0 have each caught 25 passes but are they still "Lockett and Metcalf" without Wilson? Then there is the Seattle defense, which allows 145.2 YPG on the ground to rank 31st and 305.6 YPG through the air to rank 30th. Add it up and Seattle allows a league-high 450.8 YPG. The Steelers are also 2-3 as they welcome Seattle to Heinz Field and also find some tough competition in their own division. Baltimore is 4-1, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are both 3-2. The Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the 4th quarter of their season-opening 23-16 win in Buffalo but then lost THREE in a row. Pittsburgh may have 'saved' its season with last week's 27-19 home win over Denver. Alabama rookie RB Harris had a "breakout game," running for 122 yards on 5.3 YPC with a TD. He's got 307 yards on the season and is the team's leading receiver with 28 receptions. Big Ben is still around (63.6%, averaging 259.0 YPG with 6 TDs and 4 INTs) but he's NOT the same player these days. He had three very good WRs but JuJu Smith-Schuster sustained a dislocated shoulder last Sunday and underwent season-ending surgery Wednesday. Claypool has 20 catches on 17.0 YPC plus Johnson has 25 catches with three TDs. The Pittsburgh D is no longer called "The Steel Curtain" but it is allowing 22.4 PPG, which ranks 10th. I see this as a fantastic opportunity for the Steelers to build off last week's 29-17 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh will be able to "leave everything on the field" Sunday night, as it will go into its bye next weekend (followed by a very tough road game in Cleveland). A win here and Pittsburgh can reasonably think playoffs. A loss and I'm not so sure. I have found that sometimes a "common sense" approach to handicapping a game works best, and that's the case here for me with Seattle. No Wilson, BIG problem (sorry Geno!). Meanwhile, it's a great chance for Big Ben to "turn back the clock" against Seattle's sieve-like defense and keep his team in playoff contention (consideration, at least). I expect him to make the most of this opportunity and note that Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and that's WITH Russell! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Cle Browns at 4:05 ET. Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's QB and was then the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The following season, Kyler Murray stepped in as Oklahoma's QB and won the 2018 Heisman and then became the 2019 NFL Draft's No.1 pick. The former No. 1 overall draft picks and college teammates square off for the second time in three years when the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals visit Cleveland to take on the 3-2 Browns on Sunday. Murray's been the key to Arizona's first 5-0 start since 1974 (team was located in St Louis back then), while Mayfield led the browns into the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and has helped position them as a division contender again in 2021 in the AFC North. |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. A pair of 4-1 teams square off in Baltimore on Sunday, as the Chargers take on the Ravens. It's no surprise that the Ravens are 4-1 and atop the AFC Central but the Chargers leading the AFC West IS a surprise. MUCH has happened in the AFC West since last Sunday, as while the Chargers outscored the Browns 47-42 (to get to 4-1), the Broncos and Raiders each lost for the second straight week (both are now 3-2), plus the five-time defending AFC West champs (KC) were humbled 38-20 by the Bills, falling into last-place at 2-3. Then earlier this week, Jon Gruden resigned as head coach of the Raiders to join the 'Mel Gibson Club!' After just five games, Brandon Staley looks to be the best of all the first year head coaches in the NFL this season and is at least a HUGE upgrade from Anthony Lynn. QB Justin Herbert had a superb rookie season and has made the term 'sophomore jinx' irrelevant, completing 67.2% for 1,576 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He enters off back-to-back games in which he's thrown five TD passes without an interception. RB Austin Ekeler has developed into a terrific all-purpose player, rushing for 349 yards on 5.2 YPC with four TDs, while adding 23 catches for three more TDs. Herbert has a duo of excellent WRs in Williams (31 catches on 15.2 YC with 6 TDs) and Allen, who has a team-high 34 catches (he has caught 403 passes the last four seasons!). TE Cook is solid, with 17 receptions and a 12.4 YPC average. LA's defensive numbers don't look too bad on paper (23.2 PPG allowed ranks 12th on 371.8 YPG that ranks 189th) but I'm not sold. The Chargers D will have to try to slow down former MVP Lamar Jackson, who has completed 67.1% and thrown for almost as many yards as Herbert (1,519). He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio plus adds a dimension no other QB can. He's run for 341 yards on 6.1 YPC with four TDs. Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the start of the season, Baltimore is still averaging 148.8 YPG (4th). TE Andrews leads the team with 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) and WR Brown has 28 (16.1 YPC and 5 TDs). Fellow WR Watkins (18 catches / 13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) did not practice on Wednesday, after leaving in the first half of Monday's game due to a thigh injury. The Baltimore D is not the dominant unit of years past but ranks 11th (not bad), allowing 23.4 PPG. and did not return. No doubt that the Chargers are greatly improved and that Brandon Staley looks like a quality NFL head coach but it's not exactly John Harbaugh's 'first rodeo.' The Ravens 'gave away' their Week 1 game at Las Vegas (lost in OT to the Raiders) but Baltimore has won four in a row since, including wins over AFC West teams the Chiefs and Broncos. While the Chargers were winning a 47-42 shootout with the Browns last Sunday, Jackson led the Ravens back from a 25-9 deficit against the Colts by directing two, 4th-quarter TD drives of 78 and 75 yards, converting BOTH two-point conversions. Jackson then led the Ravens on a 68-yard TD drive to win 31-25 in OT. I'm taking not only Jackson over Herbert but more importantly, Harbaugh over Staley. The Ravens are 20-6 SU at home under Jackson and at this price, a win VERY likely will earn a cover! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 6, find themselves 2-3 and in last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Both the Broncos and Raiders are 3-2, while the Chargers sit atop the division at 4-1. KC is off a humbling 38-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday night and will visit Washington on Sunday. Washington won the NFC East last season with a 7-9 record but here in 2021, the team will need to do MUCH better than that to keep pace with the Cowboys, who are 4-1 and their ATS record of 5-0 seems to prove this year's Dallas team is no fluke. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET. Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona. |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET. Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that! |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET. 4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game. |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 20-15 | Push | 0 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.
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10-16-21 | Rutgers v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET. Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games. To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10. Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th). Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. Brady Hoke coached SD State in 2009 and 2010, leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 season in 2010, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. He left for Michigan but after an 11-2 season in 2011, things fell apart quickly. He was fired after four seasons, going 6-10 in the Big Ten his last two seasons. He would wind up back at SD State as an assistant under Rocky Long and took over for Long when he retired after the 2019 season. Hoke's first season back was 2020's COVID season and the Aztecs went just 4-4, ending a run of 10 straight bowl appearances that had started with Hoke's 2010 team. SD State was expected to contend for the MWC title in 2021 but the team's 5-0 start (entered top-25 two weeks ag0) is somewhat of a surprise. The Aztecs will play on the road the next two weeks, at San Jose St this Friday and at Air Force on Oct 23. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. A 37-31 win over New Mexico State followed but last Saturday, the Spartans fell behind early at Colorado St and was never really in the game in a 32-14 loss. SD St is led offensively by a running game that averages 241.4 YPG (13th) on 5.3 YPC. Greg Bell has 520 yards rushing (5.5 YPC and five TDs). Both Brookshire (47.4% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) and Johnson (53.7% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) have played at QB. Neither has been effective, as SD St averages 128.8 YPG passing to rank 125th in the nation. The team's leading receiver (Bellinger) has seven catches, although he is averaging 23.3 YPC. Running the ball and a stout defense has been the key for SD State, with the Aztecs allowing 16.6 PPG (16th) on 270.4 YPG (6th). Spartans QB Starkel played very well in 2020 (17 TDs / 7 INTs) but has flopped in 2021 (50.4% with 6 TDs and 5 INTs). Sophomore Nick Nash replaced him against New Mexico St and helped lead the Spartans to the win, completing 15 of 18 for 193 yards with three TDs (0 INTs). He was just 11 of 22 for 154 yards vs CSU but did have two TD passes (one INT). He looks like the best choice now. RB Tyler Nevens ran for 515 yards on 7.8 YPC in eight games last season and has 406 on 5.5 YPC after six games in 2020. The San Jose St defense is allowing 23.8 PPG on 369.5 PPG (rank 63rd in each category). I believe that SD St is getting a little too much credit here and as noted above, has a 'testing' two-game stretch in which the Aztecs will have to be cautious to not get caught "looking ahead" to their game at Air Force next weekend (5-1 as of this writing). Sure SD State is the better defensive team but I will note that the Spartans did force CSU into settling for SIX field goals last weekend. This is just SD State's SECOND road game this season, winning 38-14 at Arizona. FYI...The Wildcats are 0-5 in 2021 and are currently on a 17-game losing streak! Maybe not a SU win but the TD or more in points sure looks 'juicy!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina. |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 129 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (AFC Champ Game Rematch) is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The 3-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday Night Football in what will be a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo led 9-0 after the first quarter in that one but KC pulled away for a 38-24 win. The Bills stumbled in Week 1 at home vs the Steelers, getting outscored in the 4th quarter 16-7 in a loss. However, Buffalo won 35-0 (at Miami), then 43-10 and 40-0 in home games against Washington and Houston, respectively. As for the Chiefs, they trailed most of the way in Week 1 at home vs Cleveland, before winning 33-29. KC then lost 36-35 at Baltimore (SNF) and 30-24 at home to the Chargers. Last week's 42-30 win at Philly prevented Patrick Mahomes from losing a third straight game for the first in his career plus also ended an 0-10-1 ATS regular season losing run by the Chiefs!
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET, The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions 24-14 at home in Week 4, evening their record at 2-2. Rookie Justin Fields got the start at QB for the injured Dalton and he looked better than his previous game (11 of 17 for 209 yards with no TDs and one INT) but most feel he's NOT ready for primetime. Chicago's running game produced 188 yards and accounted for all three TDs. The Bears visit Las Vegas on Sunday to take on the Raiders, who lost for the first time in Week 4's MNF contest 28-14 to the Chargers. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. That marked the Raiders 1st 3-0 start since 2002. However, the Raiders fell behind the Chargers 21-0 last Monday and lost 28-14. As noted above, no one is quite sure about Fields' viability as a starting QB. RB Montgomery ran for 106 yards and two TDs in the win over the Lions and has 309 yards on the season (4.5 YPC / 3 TDs). Robinson caught 102 passes last season and 98 in 2019 but is off to a slower start in 2021 with 13 catches. Mooney caught 61 passes as a rookie and has 17 this year. A quality QB would help. The Chicago defense is solid, allowing 22.8 PPG (10th) on 350.0 YPG (12th). Carr was outplayed by Herbert on MNF but is completing 64.1% for 1,399 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. The problem for the Las Vegas offense is that RB Jacobs has not been healthy. He returned Monday night and had just 40 yards on 13 carries. He's coming off seasons of 1,065 and 1,150 yards. The Raiders are averaging just 80.5 PPG (27th), which is about 40 yards less per game than the last two seasons. TE Waller (24 catches) is "big time" plus Carr has three WRs that make contributions. Renfro leads with 22 catches, Ruggs has 14 while averaging 21.2 YPC and Edwards has only 11 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. The Las Vegas defense is no better than mediocre, allowing 25.0 PPG on 36.1 YPG (both ranks 19th). Excellent bounce-back spot for Las Vegas, who sits in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Chargers. Meanwhile, it's hard to ignore that Chicago is 0-2 on the road, having scored just 20 points, while allowing 60 points. Lay it with the Ray-Dahs. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Saints -1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Drew Brees finally retired after a Hall of Fame career with the New Orleans. Brees led the Saints to their lone Super Bowl title (after the 2009 season) and even though his arm strength had noticeably dropped off, he still led New Orleans to first-place finishes in the NFC South in each of his final four seasons (winning 11, 13 , 13 and 12 games). The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 win over Green Bay in Week 1 (moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida), handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. New Orleans then lost 26-17 at Carolina and won 28-13 at New England, before losing its delayed home opener last Sunday, 27-21 to the Giants in OT. The Saints are back on the road in Week 5, playing at 2-2 Washington. Washington won the NFC 'Least' in 2020 with a 7-9 record but the Football Team will have to do better than that here in 2021, as 3-1 Dallas looks pretty good. In truth, Washington is lucky NOT to be 1-3, as Heinicke rallied them with two late TD passes, the game-winner coming with about 30 seconds to go was honestly, a 'miracle.' Let me add that the team's first win against the Giants, came when the Giants committed an incredibly stupid offsides penalty on a FG attempt that missed, with Washington winning when it got a second-chance reprieve. The New Orleans passing offense 'left town' with Brees, as while Winston is completing 64.0% with eight TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating), Washington ranks 31st of 32 NFL teams with 144.0 YPG game passing. All-everything RB Alvin Kamara has not looked anything like the player who ran for 932 yards (5.0 YPC / 16 TDs) and caught 83 passes for another five TDs in 2020. However, the Saints D has played well, allowing 17.3 PPG (5th) on 349.3 YPG (11th). The QB from Old Dominion, Taylor Heinicke, has proven he belongs in the NFL, He's completing 69.5% for 960 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 105.9). However, he gets little help from a running game averaging 103.3 YPG (19th). Washington's defense carried the team to the divisional title and a playoff game last season but this year's unit is GREATLY underachieving. Washington allowed just 304.6 YPG (2nd) in 2020 but has allowed 417.5 YPG (29th) after four games of 2021. What's more, after allowing 20.6 PPG last season, Washington is allowing right at 10 PPG more here in 2021 (30.5 PPG to rank 30th). The Saints are down a notch but are still more than capable. The Saints enter on an impressive 16-7 ATS run as a road favorite and we are getting a bargain here (imagine what the line would be if Washington was 0-4?). Expect New Orleans to treat this as a HUGE game, as the Bucs and Panthers have both opened 3-1 and the Saints catch their bye next weekend, after paying FOUR of their first five away from home. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 25-22 | Push | 0 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Packers and Bengals in a showdown of two 3-1 teams in Week 5 seems like a misprint! However, that's EXACTLY what we have on Sunday. Green Bay got blasted 38-3 in Week 1 by the Saints (game played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida), as Aaron Rodgers suffered the worst loss of his professional career (was just 15 of 28 for 133 yards with two INTs!). However, the Packers have responded with three consecutive wins and covers, with Rodgers completing 67.7% for 764 yards with 8 TDs and zero INTs in 96 attempts. As for the Bengals, second-year QB Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 start as well, completing 72.9% for 988 yards with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. The Packers have rebounded from a season-opening loss to New Orleans by remaining aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball. Rodgers is back to being his 'old self' plus RB Jones is coming around. He has 206 rushing yards (2 TDs) plus 13 catches with 3 TDs. WR Adams has 31 catches and fellow WR Cobb is back healthy. He caught just four passes in his first three games but had five receptions and two TDs in last Sunday's win. The Green Bay defense has come back with a vengeance after the New Orleans' debacle and is allowing a modest 311.5 YPG (6th). The Packers are allowing 25.0 PPG but just 20.7 PPG since that Week 1 loss. Burrow is finally getting some help from his running game, as Joe Mixon has begun fulfilling his potential by running for 353 yards on 4.3 YPC with two TDs. WR Boyd leads with 23 receptions but Chase is the team's "big play" receiver, averaging 17.5 YPC with four TDs on his 17 grabs. MAJOR improvement is being shown by Cincy's D, as after allowing 26.6, 26.3 and 28.4 PPG the previous three seasons, the Bengals stop unit is actually stopping opponents. Cincinnati enters allowing 323.0 YPG (7th) and 18.8 PPG (8th). Cincy's schedule up until now hasn't been much of a 'tester' but here's an opportunity to prove that the team is a legitimate division and playoff contender against a quality opponent. Is it possible that Green Bay is 'fat' and happy having reeled off three consecutive victories? Could be? The Packers also travel to Chicago next week to renew the NFL's oldest-running rivalry. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 7-6 and boasts victories in THREE of the last four meetings, as the Bengals are 2-0 against the Packers at Paul Brown Stadium in that stretch. Does it matter that the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series? It certainly doesn't hurt! The Bengals are in a fantastic ambush spot as a home ‘dog. 'Bow Wow!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | Top | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Pac-12 Game of the Year is on Utah at 8:00 ET. A pair of teams with disappointing starts to their respective 2021 seasons square off in the LA Coliseum on Saturday night, as the 2-2 Utah Utes visit the 3-2 USC Trojans. Utah was ranked 24th in the AP's preseason poll and USC was ranked 15th. However, Utah has lost to both of the quality teams it has played in the early going, falling 26-17 at BYU (snapped a nine-game winning streak over its longtime rival) and 33-31 in OT at San Diego St. Yes, BYU is ranked 10th and SD State just moved into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday but there is NO overlooking that the Utes check in at 0-4 ATS. USC comes in 3-2 after last weekend's 37-14 victory at Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. However, the Trojans have surely had their ups and downs in 2021. They lost 42-28 at home vs Stanford as an 18-point favorite, a loss that cost Clay Helton his job. Taking over is Donte Williams (first-ever head coaching job) and he lost his second game, 45-27 against Oregon St, again at home and again as a sizeable favorite of 10 points. Something tells me Williams will be 'looking over his shoulder' all season, as rumors abound that USC is looking for a "big name" head coach. Can you say Urban Meyer. Utah had hoped for big things from Charlie Brewer, who came from Baylor where he had 65 TDs and 28 INTs. However, he was benched during the SD St loss, with Cameron Rising going 19 of 32 for 153 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Rising started in the 24-13 win over Washington St but was just a modest 13 of 23 for 137 yards. However, he didn't throw a TD pass and he's thrown 55 passes without an INT the last two games. He's the better choice these days and the Utah defense is solid, allowing 302.3 YPG (25th) and 22.3 PPG. Utah's defensive strength is its pass D, allowing 163.5 YPG to rank 13th. USC is no longer called "Tailback U," as the Trojans are now a passing team. That's the case again in 2021 with Kedon Slovis completing 64.6% for 1,118 yards but he has a modest seven TD passes with four INTs. WR London leads the nation with 48 catches, grabbing four TDs. RB Ingram is solid (359 yards on 5.8 YPC) but the team's average of 137.4 YPG on the ground ranks only 91st. The USC defense allows 24.4 PPG (70th) on 361.4 YPG (61st). Utah is in a very good spot here, having last week off and despite its 2-2 start, is 1-0 in Pac 12 play. USC has lost its last two home games (SU as big double-digit favorites), while allowing a combined 87 points! USC is off next weekend and then plays Notre Dame in one of the nation's biggest (if not THE biggest) intersectional rivalries. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has led Utah to 13 bowls in 15 years (10-3), before the school declined to play in a bowl last year (COVID). He squares off against a VERY inexperienced head coach plus brings a 12-2 ATS record as a road dog into this contest going back to 2014. Meanwhile, USC comes in 8-14 as a home favorite since 2017. I'm calling for the SU win but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on LSU at 7:30 ET. Joe Burrow elevated Ed Orgeron to the status coaching 'genius' in 2019, leading LSU to one of CFB's best-ever single seasons. The 2019 Tigers would go 15-0 (11-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 48.4 PPG-to-21.9 PPG. However, LSU fell to 5-5 in COVID's 2020 season, while averaging 32.0 PPG and allowing 34.9 PPG. LSU opened the current season with a 38-27 loss at UCLA, before winning home games over McNeese ST (34-7) and Central Michigan (49-21). LSU picked up an impressive 28-25 win at Miss St on the final Saturday of September (lead 28-10 in the mid-4th quarter) but then blew a 13-point lead at home in a 24-19 loss to Auburn this past Saturday. The Tigers are now on the road this Saturday at Kentucky. How 'bout dem Wildcats! Kentucky held off then-No. 10 Florida last Saturday, winning 20-13 at home. It marked Kentucky's first home win over the Gators since 1986 and catapulted the Wildcats into the AP top-25 for the first time this year at No. 16. Kentucky has started 5-0 for just the third time in its last 35 years, with two of those perfect starts coming under head coach Mark Stoops. Stoops led Kentucky to a 5-0 start in 2018 and the Wildcats finished 10-3, including a 27-24 Citrus Bowl win over No. 13 Penn St. QB Max Johnson has thrown for 1,469 yards (62.45 completions / 16 TDs and 4 INTs) but gets almost NO help from an LS+U running game producing a pathetic 70.8 YPG (128th) on 2.4 YPC. Johnson has one of the nation's best WRs in Boutte, who has 30 receptions and an FBS-high nine TD grabs! The LSU defense is about average, allowing 23.0 PPG (59th) on 369.6 YPG (67th). However, it's quite an improvement over last year's unit which allowed 34.9 PPG on 492.0 YPG! Kentucky QB Will Levis completes 61.2% for 989 yards with eight TDs but also six INTs. The running game ranks 36th, averaging 191.0 YPG, led by Rodriguez (612 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). However, it's the Kentucky defense that leads the way, allowing 16.8 PPG (21st) on 284.6 YPG (12th). That Wildcat D came up HUGE last Saturday, as Florida had 1st and goal opportunities two times and failed to tie it up EIGHT in eight tries! Here's the 'dope.' The Kentucky offense left MUCH to be desired vs Florida, converting just one of nine third downs, gaining just 224 yards, as Levis completed just seven passes in 17 attempts for 87 yards. At 3-2, this is a HUGE game for LSU. These two haven’t met since 2014 and LSU has won SIX of the last seven meetings. LSU is 10-3 SU & ATS vs the SEC East while Kentucky is just 1-9 SU against SEC West foes, excluding Miss St (annual Egg Bowl opponent). Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | TCU -1.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Big 12 Game of the Week is on TCU at 7:00 ET. 2-2 TCU takes on 4-1 Texas Tech Saturday in Lubbock. TCU head coach Garry Patterson is in his 21st season with the Horned Frogs and has accrued some legacy. He's led TCU to 16 bowls in his first 20 seasons (a 17th appearance was canceled in 2020) and he's posted 11 seasons of 10-plus wins. From 2008-11 (a four-year span), TCU went 47-5, including 13-0 in 2010. TCU had 12-1 seasons in 2009 and 2014. However, the team entered this season on a three-year run of just 18-17. Texas Tech's Matt Wells ins in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. However, the Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons. That's changed in 2021, as Tech has opened 4-1. The Horned Frogs opened 2-0 but then lost 42-34 to rival SMU on Sep 25 and followed with a hard-fought 32-27 last Saturday against Texas (note: TT lost 70-35 to Texas!). QB Max Duggan (63.2% for 899 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 143 rushing yards and two TDs) leads a well-balanced offense. TCU is averaging 197.0 YPG rushing, led by Zach Evans (443 yards on 7.8 YPC with 3 TDs). The offense is averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) but the defense is not a strength like in years past, allowing 27.3 PPG (85th) on 397.3 YPG (83rd). Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough will be out for several more weeks with a broken collarbone, so Henry Colombi, who has filled in the last two games, will again get the start. He entered in the 70-35 loss to Texas and passed for 324 yards with three TDs (one INT). He was 23 of 34 for 266 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in last Saturday's 23-20 upset at West Va. Texas Tech's defense struggles much like TCU's (that 70 points vs Texas won't go away), allowing 30.8 PPG (102nd). Tech's 23-20 victory at West Virginia last week helped Texas Tech chase away the aftertaste of a 70-35 loss at Texas the week before, while TCU is in a different kind of mood after its comeback bid against the Longhorns fizzled in a 32-27 setback last week. "We can't feel sorry for ourselves," Max Duggan said. "Going in two weeks straight with a loss is going to suck, but nobody is going to feel bad for us. Texas Tech isn't going to feel sorry for us." After their big road win in West Virginia, I think a bit of a letdown is in order here for the Red Raiders, while conversely, after back-to-back losses, this one absolutely "means more" to the hungry Horned Frogs. Note that TCU last lost THREE games in a row back in 2018, while Texas Tech is on a 1-6 ATS slide off an ATS win. This showdown is dubbed "The Battle for the Saddle" and expect for TCU to 'ride away' with it on Saturday. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +6 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Rutgers at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 5-0 start, the Spartans are now knocking at the door for a top-10 ranking (moved up to No. 11 in the AP's poll last Sunday). Michigan St visits Piscataway, NJ at "high noon" on Saturday, taking on 3-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' head coach is Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the school. Schiano led Rutgers to SIX bowls in a seven-year span (2005-2011), winning his last five bowls, before taking over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. He went 7-9 and 4-12 and THAT was THAT. He returned to Rutgers in the COVID year of 2020 and went 3-6. The question looms, is Mich St really a top-10 team? QB Payton Thorne is completing 63.1% for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. the running game is averaging 210.8 YPG (24th), led by the nation's leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who has 680 yards on 6.8 YPC (136.0 YPG). He's got nine TDs, eight rushing. WR Jayden Reed has 20 catches for 468 yards (23.1 YPC) and five TDs. Reed leads all major-college players in all-purpose yardage, with 176.6 per game. He has caught at least one TD pass in the last four games and he's returned a punt for a touchdown in two consecutive games. Throw in a Michigan St defense that's allowing just 20.6 PPG (39th) and maybe the answer is yes, the Spartans are that good! That said, beware of Rutgers. If one just looks at last Saturday's 52-13 loss last Saturday at Ohio St, you could be missing something. Rutgers' defense was shredded for 541 yards and failed to produce a takeaway for the third straight game. Ohio State led 45-6 at halftime. Yes, Rutgers can't play with Ohio St (Buckeyes have scored at least 49 points in EIGHT straight wins) but look at the team's first four games. Rutgers opened 3-0 and then played Michigan (5-0 start and has NEVER trailed all season) even in a 20-13 loss. The defense held Michigan to just 275 total yards, including 112 rushing yards (Wolverines have averaged 255.0 YPG on the ground for the season). Rutgers doesn't have the skill position players on offense that Michigan St does but I believe Rutgers has the BETTER defense. A closer look at the Spartans' D shows that while it has allowed 20.3 PPG, it has also allowed 428.8 YPG (101st). Maybe Rutgers' QB Vedral (66.7% for 914 yards) with six TDs and three INTs (all three picks came vs Ohio St!) plus RB Pacheco (267 yards on 3.8 YPC with 3 TDs) can have success here at home. Getting back to the Rutgers' D, despite the horrific effort vs Ohio St, Rutgers is still allowing 21.2 PPG (42nd) on 320.2 YPG (40th). Prior to the Ohio St contest and INCLUDING the game vs Michigan, Rutgers had allowed 13.5 PPG on 265.0 YPG. Referring to the Ohio St game, Greg Schiano said he wants that loss to sting. "I hope we can't put it behind us that quickly," he said. "That wasn't a great outing, so we have to get to work and that's what we did. Hopefully, those kinds of things fuel you a little bit and get you cranking here early in the week." The Scarlet Knights took the Wolverines "down to the wire," and this is exactly the same sort of competitive affair that I expect to see from Rutgers here as well, after the back-to-back losses. Upset Alert? I think so but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-07-21 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Week is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in a package involving Jared Goff and made his Rams debut during Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs with a career-best 156.1 passer rating as the Rams won 34–14. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford led the Rams to a 27-24 win while throwing for 278 yards, two TDs, and one interception. Then, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford threw for 343 yards and four TDs as the Rams won 34–24. Stafford's and the Rams' luck ran out last Sunday, falling 37-20 at Arizona. Note, the Cards are the NFL's lone 4-0 team. Fellow NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, have been all over the map in the consistency department. Seattle opened with a 28-16 win at Indianapolis before back-to-back losses at home 33-30 to the Titans and on the road 30-17 at Minnesota. Seattle got a much-needed road win 28-21 in San Francisco last Sunday. Talking about QB play, Russell Wilson is completing 72.5% for 1,044 yards with nine TDs and not a single interception in 109 attempts, giving him a QB rating of 129.9. Stafford is completing 68.1% for 1,222 with 11 TDs and two INTs for a 117.8 rating. He is blessed with two vet WRs in Kupp (30 catches and five TDs) and Woods (15 catches with two TDs). Let me note that both Kupp and Woods have each caught 90 passes or more the last two seasons. TE Higbee (15 catches) is solid and second-year WR Jefferson has 13 catches, after catching just 19 all of last season. Wilson earned his 100th win Sunday (this is his 10th season) and also has two quality WRs in Locket and Metcalf. Both have caught 30 balls with three TDs apiece. RB Carson 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs gives Seattle a slight advantage in the running game. A HUGE problem has been Seattle's OL issues, which has allowed 11 sacks (Rams' D has 12 sacks). Both defenses have struggled but Seattle has the BIGGER issues! Seattle is last in total defense (444.5 YPG) and its pass D has made just one INT in 157 attempts, while allowing eight TD passes. It's hard to find a flaw in Wilson but Stafford has found a 'home' in LA under head coach Sean McVay and his numbers are very comparable to Wilson after four games. McVay is in his fifth season with the Rams, winning 10-plus games in THREE of his first four. McVay owns an excellent record on the road since 2017, going an impressive 22-11 SU. I had the Seahawks over San Francisco last Sunday but Thursday, my NFC West Game of the Week play is on the Rams! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET. The Chargers and Raiders were "original members" of the AFL back in 1960. The Chargers began in LA, spent most of their history in San Diego but recently find themselves back in "The City of Angels." The Raiders began in Oakland, 'escaped' to LA, returned to Oakland and now reside in "Sin City." The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last FIVE seasons but currently reside in last-place at 2-2. Oakland leads the division at 3-0, the Broncos are 3-1 and the Chargers 2-1. The set-up is simple, the Raiders move to 4-0 with a win, while if the Chargers win, that will make it a three-way tie atop the division (Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would all be 3-1). However, a Chargers loss drops them into last-place at 2-2 with the Chiefs. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. Los Angeles got to 2-1 with a 20-16 Week 1 win at Washington, before then falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!), The Chargers were 'cooking' in Week 3 on the road and they left Kansas City with an impressive 30-24 victory. QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards while guiding the Las Vegas Raiders to the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2002. Carr has passed for over 4,000 in each of the last three seasons but he's on pace for a very special season in 2021. He's completing 64.7% for 1,203 yards with six TDs and two INTs (101.4 QB rating. He's got a terrific TE in Waller (20 catches) and two quality WRs in Ruggs (21.5 YPC) and Edwards (21.0 YPC). RB Jacobs has been hobbled with an ankle injury (questionable again here) and the running game isn't helping Carr very much (91.2 YPG to rank 24th). The Las Vegas defense has been average but one interesting aspect is that first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last season, so he saw a lot of Justin Herbert on the practice field as well as in games. QB Herbert had a big 'freshman' season in 2020 and is completing 69.8% for 956 yards with six TDs and three INTs (Chargers rank 3rd in passing yards at 307.3 YPG). Like Carr, Herbert has quality 'targets' in WRs Williams (22 catches / 13.4 YPC and 4 TDs) and Allen (21 catches on 12.3 YPC) Note: Allen has 100-plus catches in THREE of the last four seasons, missing with 97 in the other year. RB Ekeler (166 yards on 4.7 YPC), is also a big part of the passing offense with 15 catches. The key matchup here is the LA pass D (201.7 YPG ranks 8th) vs Carr, as this will be the best pass D he has faced in 2021. The Chargers have the talent to challenge for the AFC West title and/or a wild card spot but NEED to start winning home games, as they are just 19-22 SU at home since returning to LA. I think the Raiders are absolutely primed for some regression here and I'm backing LA at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic ('Brady Bowl') is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady is returning to his NFL home of 20 seasons on Sunday night when the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-2 New England Patriots in Foxborough. Brady won six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, before capturing his seventh last season in his first season with the Buccaneers. While Brady was adding to his legacy, Belichick's Brady-less Patriots finished 7-9, just the team's second losing record since Belichick went 5-11 in his first season as the franchise's head coach (2000). It's not really original, but I've dubbed this game 'The Brady Bowl!'
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 4:25 ET. The Packers opened with a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1, a contest moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. The loss was Aaron Rodgers' worst as a pro, as he completed 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with no TDs and two INTs (36.8 QB rating). However, Rodgers and the Packers have rebounded with a 35-17 home win over the Lions and last Sunday night, won 30-28 at San Francisco on a FG as time expired. The Steelers shocked the Bills in Week 1 at Buffalo, outscoring them 17-6 in the fourth-quarter for a 23-16 win. However, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games (BOTH a home!), 26-17 to the Raiders and 24-10 vs the Bengals.
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* NFC West Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. Full, detailed analysis Thursday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -114 | 113 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. The Indianapolis Colts went 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers at QB and 'scared' the Bills in the wild card round, losing 27-24 in Buffalo. However, with Rivers retired, the Colts have opened 0-3, the team's worst start in 10 years!. Indy will be in Miami to take on the Dolphins, who got outplayed by the Pats at New England in Week 1 but somehow managed to win 17-16. The Dolphins then got clobbered at home 35-0 by Buffalo, before losing just 31-28 in Las Vegas last Sunday to the Raiders (overtime FG with 0:00 on the clock!). Both teams are "on the ropes" as they collide in Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. QB Carson Wentz does not look like Indy's 'answer' at QB, playing on two bum ankles with a struggling offensive line plus he has very little talent at the receiver positions. RB Jonathan Taylor, who finished so strong in the second half of the 2020 season, has 171 yards (4.1 YPC / 0 TDs) after three games. The Indy running game averages 103.0 YPG to rank 19th (OL woes don't help!). The defense is allowing 26.7 PPG (22nd). The Dolphins don't run the ball well either, averaging only 92.7 YPG (23rd) but Myles Gaskin gained 65 yards against the Raiders last Sunday and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season (he was terrific in college at Washington!). Tua got hurt early in the Buffalo game but as I noted in taking Miami last week vs the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett isn't really a drop-off in production. With a full week to prepare, was 32-49 for a modest 215 yards but didn't throw an INT plus added 37 yards rushing with a TD. Most importantly, he drove the Colts 82 yards in under 3 1/2-minutes to a score and a two-point conversion that sent the game to OT. Also of note last Sunday for Miami was TE Gesicki's 10 catches and rookie WR Waddle's 12 (he has 22 thru three games!). Brissett will surely be motivated against his ex-team and while Miami was no match for Buffalo in Week 2 (Bills were coming off a Week 1 home upset to the Steelers), let's NOT forget that the Dolphins ended last season with ATS wins in their final five home games (4-1 SU, losing only to KC). It's safe to say that the Colts are NOT the Chiefs! Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Daniel Jones is just looking for a break. He's played well in 2021, completing 65.4% for 782 yards and while he's thrown for just a modest two TD passes, he has not thrown an interception in 104 attempts. With RB Barkley still looking nothing like the player who topped 1,000-yards rushing in his first two years, Jones is also the team's leading rusher with 161 yards (7.0 YPC and two TDs). The bottom line? The 0-3 Giants are still trying to figure out how to win a game. They have lost their last two games on last-second field goals by Washington (30-29) and Atlanta (17-14). The 2-1 Saints have had a rollercoaster start to their first season without Drew Brees in what seems like two decades! The team's home opener against the Packers was moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, but the Saints won 38-3, handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. Brees' replacement, Jameis Winston, threw five TD passes against Green Bay but threw for only 148 yards. The Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina in Week 2, with Winston throwing two INTs and no INTs plus with only 111 passing yards. In last Sunday's 28-13 win at New England, Winston threw two TDs without an interception but again, passed for only 128 yards. RB Kamara has been quiet so far as well but the defense has been excellent. New Orleans is holding opponents to 14.0 PPG (3rd) on 304.0 YPG (6th). Yes, this will be the Saints' first home game but covering a TD or more pointspread will NOT be easy. Who would ever think that Drew Brees' former team ranks 31st in total offense (234.0 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (113.7 YPG). Yes, the Giants have trouble finishing games but I will NOT ignore the fact that the Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 as an away underdog. "Close isn't good enough," Giants coach Joe Judge said, adding that the last-second field goals didn't tell the whole story. However, close is good enough for me, Joe. 'Bow-Wow!' Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 36-12 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UAB at 7:00 ET. Hugh Freeze was 10-2 in a one-year stint at Arkansas St, which he used as a springboard to get the job at Ole miss. However, his stay ended amid recruiting and academic violations. He resurfaced at Liberty in 2019 and led the Flames to a 8-5 season, including a Cure Bowl win. Then came last year's 10-1 team that capped its season with a second straight Cure Bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team. Liberty opened the current season 3-0 and were on the cusp of breaking into the AP top-25 but lost 24-21 at Syracuse last Saturday. The Orange kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal with no time on the clock, using a late turnover to set up the game-winner.
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10-02-21 | Army v. Ball State +7.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Ball State at 5:00 ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights have opened 4-0 here in 2021 but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that their four opponents are a combined 3-13 (.188) SU to open the current season. Ball St has opened 1-3, which is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as the Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. The Cardinals lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It's no surprise that Army comes in averaging 344.5 YPG rushing (No. 2 in the nation, averaging 5.2 YPC with 17 rushing TDs. QB Anderson is the team's leading rusher 431 yards on 7.4 YPC and 5 TDs) with Robinson being the most productive RB (215 yards on 11.3 YPC). Anderson has attempted just 15 passes with three TDs and zero INTs (for only 187 yards). The best thing Army's defense has is that the offense controls the clock by 'eating' yards and time off the clock, while 'coughing up' just one turnover. The Army D checks in allowing 19.0 PPG (38th) on 277.8 YPG (16th). The 'trick' for Ball St will be to move the ball and keep Army from dominating the game with its rushing attack. Easier said than done but I think Ball St is capable of a breakout performance in this one. QB Plitt is completing 61.2% but for only 614 yards in four games (two TDs / three INTs). That compares to him throwing for 2,164 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs in just eight games last season. In 2019, he threw for 2,918 yards with 24 TDs and seven INTs. He's WAAY better than he's looked so far. I noted Army's recent success up top but being favored on the road is not something Army has seen much of. The Black Knights have been a road favorite just SEVEN times in the last five seasons, going 4-3 SU and ATS. Army has next weekend off and then plays three straight important opponents, Wisconsin, Wake Forest (off to a 4-0 start) and Air Force (3-1 start). Upset alert? Just maybe but be sure to take the points, remembering Army's opponents so far are a combined 3-13! Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-21 | BYU -7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on BYU at 9:00 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. Jaren Hall beat out Baylor Romney for the starting QB job and had BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson). Hall led the Cougars to a 3-0 start, passing for 561 yards (7 TDs / 2 INTs) plus ran for 166 yards (8.3 YPC). However, Hall took a hit with about a minute remaining in BYU's win over ASU and it was more serious than at first reported. Romney got the start last Saturday vs USF and threw for 305 yards and three TDs. At 4-0, BYU is now ranked 13th in the current AP poll. Utah St opened 3-0 (also 3-0 ATS), starting with three straight wins for the first time since 1978. QB Logan Bonner (959 passing yards / 7 TDs / 5 INTs) helps lead an offense averaging 533.3 YPG (10th), and is aided by a strong running game (213.5 YPG). However, the Aggies' defense is a liability, allowing 463.3 YPG (121st) and 29.8 PPG (101st). Whether it's Hall or Romney at QB, I like BYU and its defense, which is allowing 19.3 PPG. The BYU defense got overlooked last year as well, with Wilson leading an offense that averaged 43.5 PPG (Note: the Cougars' D allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2020). BYU is 16-4 SU vs Utah St since 1994 and when the Aggies 'stepped up in class' last week vs Boise St, the offense managed just THREE points, with Bonner completing only 11 of 25 for 173 yards with two INTs. Yes, Utah St is at home vs BYU (played at Boise St), but the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Cougars roll. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 8:15 ET. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win over Atlanta in Week 1 and then lost a 17-11 home game to the 49ers. As for the Cowboys, they lost 31-29 on a FG with two seconds left at Tampa Bay in 2021's first game and then beat the Chargers 20-17 in LA on a 56-yard FG on that game's final play. The two longtime rivals meet tonight in Dallas and with both at 1-1, the winner will take over 1st-place in the NFC 'Least,' as Washington has opened 1-2 and the NY Giants 0-3.
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The Packers were embarrassed 38-3 in Week 1 vs New Orleans (played in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida). Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards with two INTs and zero TDs (QB rating of 36.8!) in what was the worst loss of his career. No one should have been surprised that Rodgers bounced back this past Monday Night, especially against the Lions. The Packers pulled away for a 35-17 win (won send-half 21-0) with Rodgers completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 145.8). The Packers travel to San Francisco Sunday night for a game vs the 2-0 49ers, who have opened with road wins of 41-33 at Detroit and 17-11 at Philadelphia. Jimmy G threw for 314 vs the Lions but only 189 vs the Eagles. The good news is that he has not thrown an INT in 55 attempts. RB Mitchell ran for 104 yards (5.5 YPC) against Detroit but then only 42 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) vs Philly. San Francisco is averaging just 69.5 YPG on the ground (23.0 YPC) but expect Aaron Jones to "get going" and solve that 'problem. Jones is off back-to-back 1,000 rushing season (25 TDs) plus has caught 96 passes for five more TDs. Jones caught three short TD passes from Rodgers Monday night and added a fourth on the ground. Don't worry about the Green Bay running game. Turning to San Francisco's running game, "Houston (San Francisco), we have a problem!" After losing starter Raheem Mostert to a season-ending knee injury during its opener at Detroit, San Francisco then saw JaMycal Hasty go down with a high ankle sprain in last week's 17-11 win at Philadelphia. Hasty is likely to wind up on short-term injured reserve, which would require him to miss at least three weeks. What's more, rookies Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (head) were also dinged up last week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Mitchell is day-to-day, while Sermon is in concussion protocol but could play Sunday. The 49ers have opened 2-0 but this game with Green Bay opens a brutal three-game stretch in which San Francisco hosts Seattle and then plays at Arizona. Who do you want at QB, Rodgers or Jimmy G? Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while San Francisco is a bank account draining 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite. San Francisco returns home for the first time this year and I think, 'lays an egg!' Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 4:05 ET. The RAY-DAHs are 2-0 SU & ATS, while the FISH are 1-1 SU/ATS. Las Vegas won Week 1's MNF game 33-27 over Baltimore in an OT thriller and then posted an impressive 26-17 road win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Miami was outplayed at New England in Week 1 but came away with a 17-16 win but then returned home to host the Bills and got humbled in a 35-0 loss.
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -118 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. Non-conference matchups are always interesting and this particular one in New England on Sunday definitely is. The Saints looked brilliant in their 38-3 win in Week 1 over the Packers in Jacksonville (moved because of the hurricane) but fell flat in their 26-7 Week 2 loss at Carolina. Welcome to Jameis Winston's 'world.' The 2013 Heisman winner completed 14 of 20 for a modest 148 yards vs Green Bay but threw five TD passes (QB rating was 130.8!). However, last Sunday in Carolina, Winston completed 11 of 21 for a puny 111 yards without a TD pass and two INTs (QB rating of 26.9!). The Tampa Bay ground game isn't much (109.5 YPG to rank 17th) plus the defense that was so brilliant against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 (handed Rodgers his worst loss as a pro), showed NONE of that form against the legendary Sam Darnold, who led Carolina to 28 FDs and threw for 305 yards with two TDs.
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09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -2.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -120 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* 'Losers Night Out' play is on the NYG at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Giants have both opened 0-2 and likely both believe this is a "game they can win!" The Falcons have lost 32-6 at home to the Eagles and then 48-25 at Tampa Bay. It doesn't take a degree from MIT to figure out that the Falcons are allowing 40.0 PPG, which is the most of any team. The Giants opened with a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos and then lost in Week 2's Thursday night game at Washington, 30-29. I'm sure ALL remember that the Giants offsides penalty at the end, gave Washington a second attempt at the game-winning FG and you know the rest. "Matty Ice" began 2021 having passed for 4,000-plus yards the previous 10 seasons but with WR Julio Jones now longer around and a running game that averages 89.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC, it figures to be a L-O-N-G season. Ryan is completing 69.1% but he's thrown just two TD passes and a QB rating of 76.4 (offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG, ranking 30th of 32 teams). One week after getting clobbered at home by the Eagles, the Falcons got smashed last weekend in Tampa, giving up 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Giants QB Daniel Jones is a 'tough cookie.' He's completing 63.8% for 516 yards with two TDs and not a single INT in 70 attempts. He's run for 122 yards (8.1 YPC) and two TDs. Like Ryan, his running game hardly gives him any cover, as Barkley (36 attempts for 83 yards after two games, despite a 41-yard scamper vs Washington) seems to have gotten 'old' VERY quickly. Jones completed 22 of 32 for 249 yards with a TD pass, while also rushing for a career-high 95 yards against Washington and has scored a rushing TD in each of his first two games. Jones DESERVED to get a "W." Expect that "W' to come right here! OK, I realize that the Giants have lost more games than any team during the last FIVE years but the Falcons are a 'bottom-five' NFL team. Atlanta was 4-12 last season and now 0-2 to begin 2021. Let me also bring out the fact that the Falcons lost all three of their preseason games by a combined 49 points, despite trying to win! Did Atlanta really lead New England 28-3 in Super Bowl 51? The Falcons are the perfect opponent to get untracked against. It's time to open up the playbook in New York this weekend and get that 'W!" Here's a supporting trend. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs clubs with losing records. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Air Force -4 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 82 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Air Force at 8:00 ET. FAU lost 35-14 at Florida to open the season ('backdoor' cover) but has rebounded with two wins, 38-6 over Ga Southern and 45-14 over Fordham. The Owls are back on the road this Saturday at Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Falcons rolled to back-to-back victories at home against Lafayette (35-14) and 23-3 at Navy to open the season. However, Air Force is in bounce-back mode here after falling 49-45 to Utah State last weekend when RB Calvin Tyler Jr. raced 61 yards for the go-ahead TD with just under four minutes to play to lift Utah State to the win over in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams. FAU head coach Willie Taggert is in his second season with FAU and his career has mirrored a ping pong game. He starred at Western KY as a QB and began his coaching career at Western Ky in 2010. He's since made stops at USF (four years), Oregon (one year) and two years at FSU. The good news is he has a good QB in N’Kosi Perry has 871 passing yards with 7 TDs and zero INTs. He's a Miami-Fl transfer and seems to like being a BIG 'fish' in 'small' pound. However, the running game averages about 150 YPG less than that of Air Force. It's no surprise that Air Force averages 327.7 YPG (4th-best in the nation) on 5.2 YPC. QB Daniels showed some passing ability in the loss to Utah St (6 of 12 for 182 yards and one TD) plus is part of variety of players who contribute to the running game. Three players topped 100 yards rushing last Saturday (including Daniels) and on the season, WR Davis has run for 146 yards (10.7 YPC) with three rushing TDs. In stark contrast to Taggert, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. Tough spot for FAU traveling cross-country to play in altitude, facing a strong home team coming off a late-game loss last Saturday. Air Force comes in 22-8 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Lay the points and EXPECT a decisive Air Force victory! Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Indiana -9 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Indiana at 8:00 ET. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2010 and 2018, he's led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana opened the season ranked 17th (the school's first top-25 preseason appearance since 1968), However, Indiana hasn't gotten off to the start it wanted in 2021. That said, Indiana's two losses have come against No. 5 Iowa (34-6) and No. 8 Cincinnati (38-24). In between, the Hoosiers hammered Idaho 56-14.
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09-25-21 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. Kansas St and Oklahoma St meet Saturday in Stillwater in the Big 12 opener for each school. Both a 3-0 with the Wildcats looking a little bit better than the Cowboys so far. Kansas State is off a 38-17 home win over Nevada last Saturday, after opening with a neutral site win over Stanford (24-7) and an unimpressive home win over Southern Illinois (31-23). Neither of Kansas St's two QBs, Skyar Thompson or Will Howard have looked overly impressive, However, RB Vaughn has run for 371 yards on 8.0 YPC with five TDs (he rushed for a career-best 218 yards in last Saturday). Oklahoma AB Spencer Sanders is well thought of but so far has underachieved. He missed the season opener and in two games back has been nothing special He was just 6 of 13 for 82 yards at Boise St but he has run for 102 yards in his two games, scoring a rushing TD at Boise. Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has led Okie St to 15 straight bowl appearances since then (10-5). His 2011 team was 12-1 (No. 3 finish in the AP poll) and he's produce five other season of 10-plus wins. Chris Klieman had the unenviable task of taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder and after an 8-5 first season, was 4-6 in 2020. This will be K-Sate's first true road game and Kieman has yet to beat the Cowboys, falling 26-13 in 2019 and 20-18 in Manhattan last year. Kansas St has home games vs Oklahoma (No. 4) and Iowa St (No. 14) up next. Could the visitors get caught looking ahead? Oklahoma St is 3-0 but hasn't yet but together an "A effort," as the Cowboys have won their first three games by a total of just 13 points. However, I see one coming. Going back to OSU's 'magical' season of 2011 (see above), the Cowboys are 50-15 SU at Boone Pickens Stadium and they are currently on a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 against teams with winning records, Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State -6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa St at 3:30 ET. Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years in 2020 and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, defeating Oregon 34-17 (BTW...It was CFB Game of the Year!). Iowa St finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Iowa St was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll but was 'lucky to escape 16-10 over Northern Iowa in its opener and then lost its Cy-Hawk showdown vs Iowa (27-7), before routing a non-competitive UNLV team 48-3. Matt Rhule led Baylor to an 11-3 season in 2019 but then left for the NFL (Carolina Panthers). Getting his first-ever head coaching job was Dave Aranda, known as a defensive specialist. However, his first season went poorly in 2020's "Season of COVID," as the Bears would go just 2-7 (3-6). However, while 2-1 Iowa St is the ranked team in this matchup (14th), Baylor is the 3-0 team. Then again, the Bears' wins have come over Texas St, Texas Southern and 45-7 over Kansas, which is now a hard-to-believe 5-85 over its last 90 Big 12 games. Iowa St's two best offensive players are both off to slow starts. QB Brock Purdy (46-18 TD.INT ratio the last two seasons) may be completing 71.4% but he's thrown for a modest 625 yards with three TDs and three INTs. RB Breece Hall, who led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards, while scoring 21 TDs, has run for just 238 yards (4.0 YPC) and four scores. However, the Iowa St defense has been terrific, allowing just 194.0 YPG (No. 1) and 13.3 PPG (14th) The Baylor defense is allowing 235.0 YPG (8th) and 11.3 PPG (10th) but as noted above, the competition lacks any quality opponents. The offense is averaging 46.7 PPG (5th) on 559.3 YPG (3rd) but again, consider the competition. QB Boharian has thrown for 664 yards with five TDs and zero INTs in 70 attempts. The Bears feature a strong running game (322.3 YPG ranks 5th) with Smith gaining 366 yards (7.8 YPC) and Ebner (317 yards (7.5 YPC). Baylor dominated this series going 7-2 from 2005-2016 but Iowa St has won THREE of the last four. Some may feel that Iowa St should NOT be this big of a favorite on the road but I disagree. This is Baylor's first real test of 2021 and I say its final grade by game's end will be an "F!" Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Mississippi State at 12:00 ET). LSU opened the season ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, despite coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-5 season in 2020. That came on the heels of LSU's magical 2019 season win in which the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national championship. The Tigers lost 38-27 at UCLA in their first game but LSU has bounced back with home wins of 34-7 over McNeese St and 49-21 over Central Michigan.
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
My Friday Night Lights Play is a 9* on Middle Tenn St at 6:30 ET.
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 127 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic 'Best Bet' is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. Kansas City hosted the Browns in Week 1 (a rematch of a postseason matchup last year) and trailed from the opening kick-off until Mahomes led two fourth-quarter TD drives to give KC a 33-29 non-covering win. The Ravens opened Monday night in Las Vegas, where they lost a 33-27 OT thriller to the Raiders. Mahomes passed for 337 yards with three TD passes and no INTs and he's now a PERFECT 11-0 in September games with 35 passing TDs and zero interceptions (unreal!). However, the KC defense wasn't able to slow the Cleveland offense, as Mayfield passed for 321 yards plus allowed the Browns to run for 153 yards (5.9 YPC). The Ravens' RB corps has been decimated by injury but led by Lamar Jackson's 86 yards (7.2 YPC), Baltimore ran for 189 yards (5.6 YPC). Jackson completed 19 of 30 for 235 yards with one TD and no INTs. The Chiefs are the most talked about and analyzed team in the NFL. Even more so than the Bucs. Even the most casual NFL can tell you the strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters for Kansas City. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 34-20 on this field last season and deserve to be favored. However, let's return to the teams' Week 1 games. The Chiefs looked shaky for three-quarters last week, while the Ravens looked pretty good darned for three-quarters. However, KC won when the Browns 'woke up and remembered they were the Browns. As for the Ravens, they led 17-10 after three quarters, but an uncharacteristic meltdown in the fourth quarter saw them give up 17 points, before then losing by six more in OT. Bottom line? Kansas City likely shouldn't have won last week and Baltimore likely shouldn't have lost. A loss by Baltimore here drops them to 0-2 with the next two games on the road. Note that Baltimore has covered its last five regular season games as an underdog. Can you say SIX in a row. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The 1-0 Chargers welcome the 0-1 Cowboys to Los Angeles on Sunday, looking to start a season 2-0 for the first time since 2012. The Chargers escaped with a 20-16 road victory at Washington in Week 1, while the Cowboys lost a 31-29 heart-breaker at Tampa on Opening Night (on a last-second FG) and now look to avoid starting a season 0-2 for the first time since 2010. Dak Prescott was 42 of 58 for 403 yards, three touchdowns and an INT in the Cowboys Week 1 loss. Justin Herbert threw for 337 yards and a touchdown for the Chargers last weekend. Neither QB got any help from his running game, as Dallas ran for only 60 on 3.3 YPC (Elliott had just 33 yards) and Los Angeles ran for 90 yards on 3.1 YPC (Ekeler led with 57 yards). The big difference was on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas forced Tampa into four takeaways but still allowed 31 points on 431 yards. As for the Chargers' D, it held Washington to 16 points on only 259 yards. Prescott looked great in his first game back from a gruesome, season-ending leg injury last year. However, in the end, the Cowboys' poor offensive ways from last season carried over and in the end cost the team a victory. In comparison, LA converted 14-of-19 third down attempts. The 14 third-down conversions were the most by any team in the last decade in a single game. That number included Herbert and the offense converting four straight third downs to seal the victory at the end of the game. Both teams have tough games coming up. The Cowboys host the Eagles next Monday, while the Chargers travel to KC to face the Chiefs. Here's what I see in LA from the Chargers. The team is healthier, has an upgraded offensive line, improved special teams and solid coaching now with Brandon Staley in for Anthony Lynn. Herbert passed a major test against an aggressive Washington defense in Week 1 and now he faces likely one of the worst units in the entire league. I don't see any regression happening for Herbert, especially not against this weak Cowboys defense, which will be playing without its top pass-rushers. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence fractured his foot in Wednesday's practice The Cowboys are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games (going back to late 2019) and I don't see them 'sneaking' under the number again this week at a MUCH-improved Chargers team. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET. The Cardinals looked great in their 38-13 destruction at Tennessee in Week 1 over the Titans. However, I think it's possible they just may get caught a little too contented here against a dangerous Vikings team looking to bounce back from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Cincinnati. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was 36 of 49 for 351 yards and two touchdowns (both to Adam Thielen, who caught nine balls). RB Dalvin Cook was "off his game with just had 61 yards (3.1 YPC) and a TD, while adding four catches for 43 Yards. The Vikings D allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 261 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) plus allowed Joe Mixon 127 yards rushing. The defense will have to play MUCH better, as Kyler Murray is the best combination passer/runner among all NFC quarterbacks. He threw for 289 yards at Tennessee with four TF+D passes plus ran for a fifth score. Hopkins and Kirk are two outstanding WRs and each caught a pair of TDs. That said, the Vikes had to deal with a couple of unlucky bounces at the end of their game with Bengals. As long as Kirk Cousins isn't playing in prime time, he's usually very solid. He was last week as well in the loss, but either way, I do think Minnesota can keep this very competitive again. Arizona is unfamiliar with being as home favorite, as it has happened just NINE time since the start of the 2018 and guess what? Thar cards are just 2-7 ATS in that roll. Yes, I have to point out that Minnesota's Week 1 loss is the team's EIGHTH consecutive ATDS loss going back to Week 11 of 2020. My answer to that is this team is TOO talented for that to continues and I say this a "perfect" spot for not just an ATS win but a SU one. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET. Cincinnati held on for dear life in an emotional 27-24 OT win over the Vikings in Week 1. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter, including a game-tying 53-yard FG (0:00) to send the game into OT. However, Cincy did eke out the win. Meanwhile, the Bears 'took it on the chin' in LA in the season's first Sunday night game, losing 34-14. It was just 13-7 at the half but the Rams won the second half 21-7, as Stafford threw for 321 yards and three TDs in his LA debut. Joe Burrow was solid (20 of 27 for 261 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) plus RB Mixon was a pleasant surprise with 127 rushing yards. However, the Cincy 2ndy was riddled by Cousins, who threw for 351 yards and two INTs without an INT despite 49 attempts. As noted above, Chicago's 2ndy wasn't any better than Cincy's. Veteran Andy Dalton is the Chicago starter at QB and he did not play well in his Chicago debut. However, the Bears did run for 134 yards (5.2 YPC) with Montgomery getting 108 on 6.8 YPC. Taking a look at this game reminds me that the worst thing bettors can do is to overreact at the beginning of the season. Not every team that struggles in Week 1 will continue to do so (and vice versa). Being successful in the NFL is much like handicapping the NFL, as making adjustments from week to week is crucial. The good news for the Bears? The NFC North is wide open, as Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay also all lost. The Packers looked pathetic. The Bengals on the other hand, are at their arch-nemesis Pittsburgh next week, followed by a Thursday night game at home against the Jaguars. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a solid great situational play, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after a 20 points or greater SU loss in its previous outing. What's more, Cincy head coach begins his third season with the Benagls and over the first two, the Bengals are just 2-14 SU on the road. Not much to 'cover' here and I expect Dalton to lead the Bears to a VERY satisfying win, that would at worst, leave them tied for the division lead. Small steps. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Bills v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC East) is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott took over the Bills in 2017 and promptly ended Buffalo's 17-year postseason drought. As he enters fifth season as Buffalo's head coach, he's led the Bills to THREE playoff appearances in his first four seasons, including falling just ONE win shy of the team's first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season in 2020 when they lost the AFC championship game 38-24 at KC. Miami's Brian Flores begins his third season with the Dolphins and his team just missed a playoff berth in 2020, finishing 10-6. Optimism was running high in Miami entering 2021, especially for a franchise that has made just TWO playoff appearances in the previous 19 years! The teams got off two different starts in Week 1, as the Bills were upset 23-16 at home by the Steelers, while the Dolphins ruined Mac Jones' NFL debut with a 17-16 win in New England. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh to score 17 points in the fourth quarter, seven coming on a blocked punt TD return. Josh Allen had a breakout season in 2021 but looked no better than OK, throwing for 270 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) but that came on 51 attempts! In the end, Allen led his team to just 16 points! Tua Tagovailoa had 202 passing yards, one TD, and one INT last week He got little help from a running game that was held to just 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC). The Miami defense allowed Jones to throw for 281 yards (no INTs) and RB Harris had 100 yards on the ground but in the end, the Pats could only muster 16 points (the one stat that matters MOST!). It might be easy to call for a Buffalo bounce back after a humbling home loss to the Steelers in Week 1, but the Bills may just be the most overhyped team in the league. My call here is for Miami to earn a second straight AFC East win, as the Dolphins jelled in the second half of last season and opened 2021 with a win over Belichick in his backyard last Sunday. Miami left backers smiling down the stretch of 2020, covering SIX straight at home, winning FIVE of them SU (lone loss, but an ATS win, was against KC). Josh Allen is NO Patrick Mahomes and how sweet would a Miami win be? The Dolphins were the only AFC East team to win in Week 1 and a "W" in this one would move them to 2-0, with the Bills falling to 0-2. That's what I expect and any points are just a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Arizona State -4 v. BYU | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 3 Marquee is on Arizona St at 10:15 ET. Both Arizona St and BYU have opened 2-0. The Sun Devils haven't really been tested, rolling at home 41-14 over Southern Utah and 37-10 over UNLV. Meanwhile, BYU opened with a 24-16 win in Las Vegas over Arizona and then followed with a 26-17 'Holy War' win over Utah in Provo (ended a 9-game losing streak in the rivalry).
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09-18-21 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Group of 5 Game of the Year is on Georgia St at 7:00 ET. The Charlotte football program was created in 2008 and gained FBS status in 2013. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. However, Charlotte has opened 2-0 in 2021, while Ga St sits at 0-2. Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win), before hammering Gardner-Webb 38-10 as a 22.5 point favorite. QB Reynolds has thrown for a modest 427 yards but his running game is averaging 230.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC ((leading rusher Camp has just 107 yards). Defense has been a major issue for Charlotte, as the 49ers entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes haven't reared its ugly head yet this season, but it's coming (note: The 49ers allowed 352 rush yards (8.0 YPC) against Duke in the opener.). Georgia St was routed 43-10 at Army on Sep 4 and then last Saturday was in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing at North Carolina, which was coming off a season opening loss to Va Tech. NC's Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howell threw for 352 yards (three TDs) and ran for 104 yards with three TDs. The Tar Heels won 59-17. We just played a talented North Carolina team, and for two-and-a-half quarters, we fought and we scrapped and we clawed to try to hang in there," Panthers' head coach Shawn Elliott said earlier this week. "About six or seven minutes left in that third quarter, it was still a two-possession ballgame, but then it got away from us. So there were some positives, but obviously, no one in our football program is feeling good about where we are right now." Ga St opened the season with 11 returning starters on offense and eight on defense and will NOT face that kind of offensive talent here. The Panthers almost NEED to win this one, as a trip to Auburn is up next (0-4 start?). I think Charlotte's 2-0 start is a little bit of a 'mirage' and I expect an EASY win for the home side. After all, Charlotte is just 8-26 SU on the road the last six seasons and this is its first roadie of 2021. I like betting on motivated teams and there's NO question that the Panthers fit the bill and this contest is a big step down in competition, plus they got back some missing starters last week. That's the play. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Northwestern -2.5 v. Duke | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -117 | 118 h 50 m | Show |
The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on Northwestern at 4:00 ET. Both teams enter at 1-1, but I feel that this is a matchup which favors Northwestern. The Wildcats are the slight favorite here on the road, but I feel they could be much bigger ones. Northwestern is led by QB Hunter Johnson, who has 341 yards passing in the early going, with four TDs and just one INT. Evan Hull has 213 rushing yards and two TDs for the Wildcats. Gunnar Holmberg has 498 passing yards, one TD and no INTs for Duke (he also has 24 rushing yards and two TDs scored on the ground.) Mataeo Durant has carried the ball 44 times for a team-high 296 yards and six major scores. Northwestern was 7-2 last season after a bowl win over Auburn, ending as the AP's 10th-ranked team. Yes, the Wildcats returned only eight starters but I firmly believe they are a much stronger team than Duke, which was only 2-9 in 2020. Northwestern lost its season opener to Michigan St but the Spartans look like they'll be a top-25 team. Duke lost its opener at Charlotte and a 45-17 win over NC A&T means little. I'm not reading too much into Duke's early numbers, as its level of competition has skewed them on both sides of the ball. Pat Fitzgerald has had some career at Northwestern, leading the Wildcats to 10 bowl bids in the last 13 season (Northwestern has won its last four bowl games). Including this game, northwester has four Beatable foes over the next five weeks (one bye). Could this be the "start of something big?" Just maybe. For this one, lay the small spread. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 64 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +8 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Illinois at 9:00 ET. Maryland's opened the season 2-0, after playing just five games last season (2-3). The Terps upset West Va in 9/4 at home 30-24 and then routed Howard 62-0 last Saturday (again at home). QB Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown six TDs (zero INTs). The defense posted a shutout last weekend, after holding West Va to a modest 20 points. However, for me, this is a classic case of not "overreacting" to early numbers (more in a bit). Illinois finished 2-6 last year, firing head coach Lovie Smith after seven games. The Illini hired Bret Bielema, who was terrific at Wisconsin but a flop at Arkansas. He took over a program that last posted a winning season in 2011! The 2021 season got off to an excellent start, as Illinois upset Nebraska at home 30-22 on Aug 28 but the team has since lost 37-30 at home to UTSA (9/4), before getting routed 42-14 on 9/11 at UVa. Peters was the returning starter at QB but was injured early vs Nebraska and has not returned. Artur Sitkowski has stepped in and has six TDs and just one INT (don't blame him!). There will be NO lack of motivation here for the Illini, as a loss just could send Bielema's first season at College Park spiraling out of control. I believe Maryland is nowhere near as good as its 2-0 start and with games coming up against Iowa (10/1) and at Ohio St (10/9) coming up soon, I expect the Terps to get 'exposed.' Hey, why not start that process right here, as the Terps are just 3-11 SU on the road the last three seasons. Does that sound like a team that is supposed to be a road favorite of a TD or more? "Bow wow" The Illini 'bark' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* NFC 'Least' Game of the Month is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET. The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9, earning the division the moniker of NFC 'Least.' In the just completed preseason, Washington was the ONLY team in the NFC East to win a game, going 1-2 SU but 0-3 ATS. As for the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, they combined to go 0-9-1. How did things go in Week 1? The Eagles won impressively 32-6 in Atlanta and the Cowboys lost 31-29 at Tampa Bay on a last-second FG, but Washington and New York both lost (0-2 ATS). The Giants travel to D.C. off a 27-13 home loss to Denver, a game in which QB Daniel Jones scored on a 4-yard TD run with no time left on the clock. Washington's defense was the reason it won the division last season but that D allowed the Chargers to gain 424 yards and most notably, to convert 14 of 19 third down attempts. Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury early on (3 of 56 for 13 yards) and it looks as if Taylor Heinicke (from the FB powerhouse of Old Dominion) will be Thursday night's starting QB. It's a short week but I like the Giants. Daniel Jones looked OK, as he had 267 passing yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions (37 attempts. However, the Giants NEED a return to form by Saquan Barkley (10 carries for 26 yards). The Giants have 'owned' this series lately, winning the last FIVE (4-1 ATS). Want more? The Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road, while the Washington Football team is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six when playing the role of favorite. I expect an outright but grab as many points as you can, The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Bears +9 v. Rams | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -125 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the Chicago Bears. Both teams are starting new quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford is going to have his hands full now that he's out of the dome in Detroit and amidst the difficult NFC West. Andy Dalton will get the call to start off with in Chicago, with Justin Fields as a very capable backup ready to step in if needed. I think the Bears veteran can match Rams' new QB Matthew Stafford's performance (who will face his former team the Lions in Week 7.) The Rams also have to still fill the void left by Cam Akers, who was lost to a torn Achilles. Granted, the Rams have bigger playmakers on both sides of the ball, but I'm not convinced that Stafford is going to be able to seamlessly fit into this West Coast offense and Conference overall. The Rams also have to transition for a tricky non-conference road game at Indianapolis next weekend, before then returning home to host the defending champs. The Bears on the other hand have a very manageable early schedule, which sees them return home to face the Bengals next, followed by the Browns and Lions. All games are important in a 17 game season, but the Bears will be looking really good if they can manage to pull off a road upset here. One final thing, Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten NFC road games as an underdog in the +6.5 to +8.5 points range. I'm not calling for the outright. But everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. As such, grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Browns +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 15 m | Show |
My AFC 10* Game of the Month is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET. Both teams are predicted to do well this season. Obviously, that's no surprise for KC but it looks as if Cleveland has finally "turned the corner." The Chiefs have exceeded their O/U season win total eight seasons in a row. They're a +445 favorite to win Super Bowl 56 and +234 leader to repeat as conference Champion. These teams played here last season in the divisional round of the playoffs, and Kansas City had to hold on for dear life in the 22-17 victory. Chiefs' star QB Patrick Mahomes left that one early with an injury. What I do definitely think can't be ignored though, is that the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series, including the playoffs. Cleveland has gotten progressively better each of the last five seasons and that progression is going to continue this year. Especially on the defensive side of the ball, as it concentrated heavily in that department in the offseason, signing Jadeveon Clowney and drafting Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II at No. 26 overall. This is a big contract year for Browns' QB Baker Mayfield. He'll benefit from a 100% healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Note that Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will once again be contending at the end of the season. Of course, they will be. I won't try and bash Kansas City, it's obviously one of the best in the entire league and as long as Mahomes stays healthy, a Super Bowl victory is definitely a very real possibility again. However, KC went just 8-11 ATS last year including the playoffs. Anything can happen in Week 1. It's unpredictable. The bottom line is, I think that Mayfield has the offense around him to keep pace with Mahomes. In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Jax Jaguars at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis Monday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 82 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Seattle at 1:00 ET. Seattle has made the playoffs in EIGHT of the last nine years. The 'Hawks won 12 games last year. The Colts also made the playoffs last season, while winning 11 games. Seattle is a difficult offensive team for anyone to handle and it all starts with QB Russell Wilson. He has plenty of 'weapons' around him, including RB Chris Carson and WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks have a strong defense as well, one which includes Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs, and DJ Reed. Seattle is poised for a big year defensively, many feel a unit that could rival the famed "Legion Of Boom." The Colts played amazingly well with Philip Rivers under center last year, but Carson Wentz will be the FOURTH new starting QB for Indianapolis in the last four seasons. RB Johnathan Taylor was big last year, and the defense was a strength as well for Indianapolis. Seattle comes in as the road favorite, meaning oddsmakers would make them about a TD favorite on a neutral field. I'd agree with that plus Seattle owns a distinct advantage at the QB position. Wentz has struggled the last few seasons, and he's on a new team under a new system and I just can't see him keeping pace with Wilson's offense down the stretch. Lay the short price. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Utah v. BYU +7 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 67 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year is on BYU at 10:15 ET. Utah visits BYU (both teams have opened 1-0) for the school's annual "Holy War" for the Beehive Boot. Utah is off a 40-17 win over Weber State, while BYU beat Arizona 24-16 in Las Vegas. The two bitter rivals did not meet last season (COVID) for just the SECOND time since 1946. To say this is a "revenge" game for BYU would be an understatement, as it's lost nine straight in this series. |
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09-11-21 | Memphis v. Arkansas State +5.5 | Top | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 7:00 ET. Arkansas State comes in under the radar here in my opinion. The Red Wolves are off a relatively simple 40-21 win over Central Arkansas as 14-point favorites and I believe they have a legitimate shot at winning today's game outright. Memphis is off a 42-17 win over Nicholls State, but with a game at home against Mississippi State next weekend, I believe the Tigers are going to get caught looking ahead to that much more high-profile matchup. Seth Henigan had 265 yards passing and a TD for Memphis last weekend, while Brandon Thomas rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown. Not to be outdone though, the Red Wolves got a couple of good performances, as James Blackman threw for 169 yards in last week's win, while Layne Hatcher threw for 150 yards and 4 TDs on a perfect 12 of 12 passing! Alan Lamar led the rushing attack with 67 yards and a TD on 18 carries. These two teams are led by their dynamic offenses and everything points to an old-fashioned shootout. It really does have the feel to me of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one. As such, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -120 | 121 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 2 Marquee is on Iowa St at 4:30 ET. Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17 in 2019. While it lost straight up, it did manage to cover the spread in that one, as it had 1.5 points afforded to it. This is a revenge game for the home side (these teams didn't face each other last season.) Iowa State likely got caught looking ahead to this game after having to hold on for a 16-10 win here over Northern Iowa last week. It was a lackluster effort, as the Cyclones were a 28.5 point favorite. Iowa clobbered Indiana 34-6 at home last weekend as a 3.5 point favorite. After this game though Iowa doesn't play again until October 1st, while Iowa State has a game at UNLV next weekend. Regardless, both teams come into this game 1-0 with Iowa St ranked No.. 9 and Iowa at No. 10 *up from No. 18). The Hawkeyes won 34-6 over Indiana last week but QB Spencer Petras threw for just 145 yards on 13 of 27 passing while also rushing for a score as well. However, the Iowa offense gained just 303 yards, scoring two TDs on INT returns. I seriously wonder if it's more a case of Indiana just playing terribly, rather than Iowa being a world beater right out of the gate to start the season. While Iowa State had a much more difficult time in its opening game, QB Brock Purdy quietly had 199 yards on 21 of 26 passing, while also rushing for 58 yards on nine carries (he's thrown 46 TDs vs 18 INTs the last two seasons). Breece Hall (led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards plus added 21 TDs) but had just 69 yards and a TD on 23 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. The Cyclones defense was also stout, allowing just 10 points to a dangerous Northern Iowa team. Yes, Iowa has won 13 of the last 17 meetings (plus enters on a seven-game winning streak after ending last season with six straight wins) but Iowa St has 20 returning starters and is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the -2.5 to -4.5 points range. Nothing but good things to say about Iowa's Kirk Ferentz but Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, and defeated Oregon 34-17. They finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Now it's time to win the "biggest-ever Cy-hawk game in series history. I like the revenge-minded home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is Iowa State. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 1 Season-Opener is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Did anyone think the Buccaneers were really going to win the Super Bowl last year? They were one of the early favorites, but not many would have predicted Tampa winning the Super Bowl after about Week 14. Does anyone think Tampa can repeat? Even for the best teams of all time, repeating as NFL champion is an unbelievably difficult thing to do. The Bucs though are once again one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season and while Tom Brady and company may indeed go on to do just that, I think they'll have their hands full with Dak Prescott and a Cowboys team that will collectively be playing with a chip on their shoulders this season. Prescott got injured early on last year and the Cowboys went on to finish 6-10. The offense was decent even without Prescott in, but the problem for the Cowboys was on the other side of the ball. Dallas was active in the offseason to address several defensive issues, and I expect a dramatic improvement. Keep your eyes on Micah Parsons, who could easily win Defensive Player of the Year this season. What more can I say about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that hasn't been said a million times already? If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly already know the strengths and weaknesses of the Buccaneers, also the cast of characters in all three phases, and the coaching staff as well. So why will Brady and Bruce Arians get caught "looking past" the Cowboys on Opening night? Tampa could be caught flat-footed here out of the gate, as it faces a relatively "simple" opening schedule, with Atlanta coming to town next Sunday, followed by road games at the Rams and Patriots. Dallas on the other hand has two straight road games to open the season, including a tough one at the Chargers in Week 2. I think Prescott and the Cowboys throw their best show in Week 1. I also expect the Dallas defense to be vastly improved this season. Will those things combine to deliver an outright victory for the visiting side in the Champs house? Probably not, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. These teams last met in 2018 when Dallas beat Tampa Bay for the 7th time in the last eight matchups. Is that old news? Yes, but this is NOT. The Bucs are on just a 7-19-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite. As such, grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* 'Bobby Bowden Bowl' is on Florida State at 7:30 ET. This will be an emotional contest for Florida State, as it is the Seminoles' first game since Bobby Bowden's death (the program will honor its legendary head coach before the game starts. It is also a very important season, as Florida State's 3-6 record last year was its worst since going 3-8 in 1975, the year before Bowden took over. Visiting Tallahassee Sunday night will be Notre Dame, which made the CFP last season and opens 2021 as the AP's 9th-ranked team. However, this is considered a "reloading" year for the Fighting Irish. Taking over at QB for Ian Book (a huge winner and third-down master) will be Wisconsin transfer, Jack Coan. His challenge is to lead an offense with just TWO returning starters. FSU features one of the best stories in college football this season with the debut of former UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton. Milton will be taking the field for the first time in 33 months, after suffering a knee injury against USF in November 2018. The injury was so gruesome that doctors had to consider amputation. After a grueling rehab process and a transfer to Tallahassee, Milton looks to complete a near-miraculous comeback. This is a great opportunity for the Seminoles to catch the Irish a little uncertain in a few areas. Mike Norvell steps in as FSU's new head coach and in four seasons at Memphis he led the tigers to a 38-15 record and four bowl berths. I like this guy and and he has all the tools in place to improve his offense dramatically this year. I'm not calling for an upset but the again, I may just be. Bottom line is, TAKE the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Nevada +3.5 v. California | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. Nevada and Cal open their respective season Saturday Sep 4 at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell and Cal by Justin Wilcox. Both arrived at their respective schools in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season in Reno but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wilcox was 5-7 in his first season but then led Cal to back-to-back bowls in 2018 and 2019. However, COVID pretty much wiped out Cal's entire 2020 season, as the Bears would play just four games (1-3). I like what Nevada brings to the table in Week 1. QB Carson Strong is expected to take another big step forward this year. Last season he finished with 2,858 yards, 70.1 percent passing, along with a sharp 27-4 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Toa Taua is now a senior and he finished with 675 rushing yards last year. Keep your eyes on WR Romeo Doubs as well, as he had 1,002 yards on 58 receptions in 2020. Nevada returns 10 starters on both offense AND defense. The Wolf Pack were the most penalized team in the MWC last year but with the core of each unit returning, this sloppy play is also expected to take a big turn in the right direction this season. Cal's defense has been solid the last few years, but the offense has struggled under QB Chase Garbers. He's dealt with several injury issues over the years. He'll benefit from having most of his starting receivers return this season but the offensive line is another issue entirely. The Cal offense was one-dimensional last year, as the OL was never able to stop any sort of a pass rush. Four of the five starters return up front for Cal, so the unit should/could make big progressions this season. Still, Cal offense averaged just 20.3 PPG on 320 YPG in 2020. Yes, Cal leads the series 22-3-1 but the schools have only met TWICE since 2010. Nevada won 53-21 in Reno back in 2010 and at Berkeley 31-24 in 2012. I believe Nevada is just too deep and have a hard time seeing this Cal offense keeping up the pace down the stretch. The Wolf Pack's defense was middle of the road last year, but with 10 starters returning, expect a significantly improved unit this season. I say that improvement starts right here in Week 1. I think the outright win is in the cards, but let's grab as many points as they give you. Closing clincher: Under HC Justin Wilcox, Cal is a money-burning 1-8-1 ATS as a home favorite. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* NCAAF Week 1 Marquee is on Clemson at 7:30 ET. The No.3-ranked Clemson Tigers take on the No. 5-ranked Georgia Bulldogs Saturday night for the Duke's Mayo Classic in Charlotte. It marks the first meeting between the two regional rivals since 2014, Saturday night's prime time showdown has been eagerly anticipated since being announced last year that ESPN's "College GameDay" will be on hand. Clemson is coming off a 10-2 season that ended with a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Sugar Bowl, while Georgia went 8-2 last season, capping its campaign with a 24-21 win over Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where Clemson has won the last four ACC championship games. Here's a list: 34-10 over Notre Dame. 62-17 over Virginia. 42-10 over Pittsburgh. 38-3 over Miami-Fl. Nick Saban's success at Alabama is unmatched but in "second-place" is Clemson's Dabo Swinney. He has led Clemson to 10-plus wins in 10 consecutive seasons and the Tigers have made the 'Final 4' in the last six CFP, winning national titles in 2016 and 2018. Clemson is the ONLY team the in the country to make the playoff each of the last six years. This will be Clemson's first game in years without the record-setting tandem of QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, both of whom were selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the NFL draft last spring. However, don't 'cry' for the Tigers. There are NO worries about DJ Uiagalelei taking over at QB. Filling in for Lawrence last season, he passed for 342 yards in his first career start against BC and then followed that by passing for 439 yards at Notre Dame (most passing yards ND has ever allowed to an opposing QB). 5 TDs and zero INTs in 117 attempts for the season. Clemson has a crowded RB situation with senior Lyn-J Dixon the most experienced of the bunch. However, true freshmen Will Shipley and Phil Mafah were so impressive in fall camp that they could see considerable playing time. As for Clemson's defense, it returns NINE of 11 starters and boasts one of the most imposing front lines in the country. Georgia's defensive front is expected to rank among the nation's best. The Bulldogs led the country in rushing defense last year after finishing among the national leaders in that category in 2019. However, Georgia's defensive secondary will be breaking in three new starters. Much is being made of JT Daniels at QB for Georgia. He started the final four games last season and threw for 1,231 yards (67.2%) with 10 TDs and 2 INTs. However, his regular season wins came over Miss St, South Carolina and Missouri (combined regular season record of 10-20). Georgia did beat Cincy in Peach Bowl 24-21 but needed to outscore them 14-0 in the 4th-quarter. The game-winner came on a 53-yard FG with THREE seconds left! Here's a great quote by an opposing coach about Georgia. "The Bulldogs are consistent and talented but are still figuring out how to become elite." Kirby Smart is in his 6th season at Georgia, going 52-14. This just in! He's NO Dabo Swinney. Let's look at his last four years. 2017: won SEC champ game over Auburn but then suffered a heartbreaking 26-23 loss (OT) to Alabama in the national championship game. 2018: lost SEC champ game to Ala, blowing a 14-point lead. 2019: got routed 37-10 in SEC champ game by LSU. 2020: lost 41-24 at #2 Alabama as #3 team and then as #5 team, got crushed by Fla (#8) 44-28 in to biggest regular season meetings. Where's the team's "big game" win under Smart? Georgia has won SEVEN straight season openers but its last loss in a season opener came 2013. The school that beat them? You guessed it, Clemson. Smart and Georgia once again come up sort in a "Big Game!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +6 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on UTSA at 7:30 ET I say the Illini have a letdown here after their 30-22 upset victory to kick off the season at home over favored Wisconsin last Saturday (note: Illinois last beat Nebraska in back-to-back years in 1923-24). UTSA finished 7-5 last year and made it to a bowl game, ultimately falling 31-24 to Louisiana. Illinois finished 2-6 last year. Head coach Lovie Smith was fired after seven games (note: The Illini last posted a winning season in 2011!). But after their improbable 30-22 win over the Huskers, can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Illinois starting QB Brandon Peters left the game holding his left (non-throwing) shoulder after being sacked hard near the end of the first quarter. He was 3-of-4 passing for 35 yards. He did not return and was replaced by Artur Sitkowski, a sophomore transfer from Rutgers, who went 12-of-15 for 124 yards and two scores. Peters' status is up in the air for Saturday's game and I think it may be too much to expect that Sitkowski will match his effort vs Nebraska. The Road Runners have plenty of talent, and they've excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last nine on the road. UTSA has a potent and underrated offense that returns most of its core group of players (a unit that averaged 415 yards and 28 PPG last year.) Sincere McCormick is a dominant RB that keeps defenses honest and the entire offensive line returns as well. Illinois gave up 232 years on the ground last week, which doesn't bode well facing this run-first Road Runners attack. With Maryland at home next, followed by a trip to Purdue, this is also a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. While I do in fact feel an outright upset is possible again on this field for a second straight week, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is UTSA. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Maryland at 3:30 ET. Maryland's going to have its hands full today with a WVU defense that should be among the best in the Big 12. However, I think the Terps can match pace with the Mountaineers and come away with what some may call a surprising OUTRIGHT win.The problem for West Virginia is on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege looked brilliant at times last season, but he was prone to making mistakes as well. Several of them, and all of the time. Maryland has a well-balanced offense, which isn't great for West Virginia either. Taulia Tagovailoa will be given the green light today for the home side and he has a slew of dangerous weapons around him (including tight ends Malik Jackson and Chigoziem Okonkwo) Last year was a difficult one for both teams. But I think that Maryland's ceiling to improve is huge, while WVU is poised for some minor regression on both sides of the ball. Opening Day and on its own field, I think Maryland wins the day but why not take the points? The play is Maryland. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Army +3 v. Georgia State | Top | 43-10 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET. Georgia State opens the season at home against a tricky opponent. Clearly, with a spread like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. I do as well. The Black Knights are not a powerhouse but under head coach Jeff Monken, Army has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). Army's option is always a challenge (finished fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game last year at 273 per) but Georgia State's strength on the defensive side of the ball is stopping the run (it ranked third in rushing defense last season.). The Panthers will need to deal with Army QB Tyhier Tyler, who had 578 rushing yards and five scores last year, all coming in the final seven games. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. That's likely bad news for the rest of the Sunbelt Conference moving forward. QB Cornelious Brown IV is back under center. He struggled with INTs last year, but he's expected to make big strides this year. These schools have only played one other time, with the Panthers winning 28-21 in 2019. However, that 2019 Army finished just 5-8, the school's LONE losing season in the past FIVE years! Georgia St has a VERY tough first month, as after this home game with Army, the Panthers have road games at No. 10 North Carolina on Sep 11 and at Auburn on Sep 25. I'm taking the points but expect an outright Army win, which means Georgia St will likely open 0-2 (maybe 1-3 in Sep). Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -4 | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 292 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF Season-Opener is on UCF at 7:00 ET. |
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08-29-21 | Patriots v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the NY Giants at 6:00 ET. The Patriots are 2-0. They've looked good in both games. Both Cam Newton and Mac Jones dominated in New England's 35-0 destruction of the Eagles in Week 2. Newton had 103 yards on 8 of 9 passing, while Jones had 146 yards on 13 of 19 passing. I don't expect Bill Belichick to keep the foot on the gas in this now meaningless Week 3 NFL preseason contest. The Patriots can simply go through the motions here and get ready for their Week 1 matchup at home against the Dolphins (it's interesting to note that the Pats will play their final Week 17 game in Miami to finish out the regular season.) The Giants are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. They lost 12-7 at home to the Jets in Week 1, before then falling 17-13 at Cleveland last weekend. I say this one just means more to New York. The Giants are coming off a miserable 2020/21 campaign and are looking for any tiny positive thing they can before heading into the regular season. In the setback to the Browns, Brian Lewerke threw for 108 yards, a TD, and an INT on 11 of 19 passing while third-stringer Mike Glennon had 86 passing yards on 10 of 13 passing. Does it matter that New England is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six as a favorite? How about the fact that New York is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog? It certainly doesn't hurt! Either way, look for the home side to take this one much more seriously and to walk away with at least the ATS cover. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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08-28-21 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +4 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -102 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Week is on the Was FB Team at 6:00 ET. Washington is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in the preseason. Baltimore is 2-0 SU/ATS so far in the preseason. The Ravens have now won 19 straight pre-season games in a row. That's remarkable, but as the old saying goes, "all good things have to come to an end." I understand that John Harbaugh takes the preseason more seriously than other coaches. I get it. Clearly, he does with a 19 game winning streak on the line. But I don't think Harbaugh could care less about setting any preseason records. Tyler Huntley is expected to see most of the time for Baltimore under center in this one. Last week he had 187 yards and an INT. Washington has much more to work on than Harbaugh and the Ravens. The Football team is off a decent 17-13 win over the Bengals in Week 2 and I believe they'll be out to finish up the preseason strong. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play with a chip on his shoulder, as the veteran finished for 96 yards. Taylor Heinicke had 80 yards passing, while RB Jaret Patterson had 71 rushing yards and a TD. I think Washington will be out to not only build on their win from last week, but to also snap the Ravens' preseason streak, and make sure they don't get the record here on their own field. Lastly, note that The Football Team is still 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Outright win? Definitely not out of the realm of possibility in my opinion. However, my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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08-27-21 | Steelers v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Car Panthers at 7:10 ET. It's going to be a different regular season. We now have 17 games in the regular season, while just the three in the preseason. This though will actually be the Steelers' fourth game. They played in the Hall of Fame Game, and so they come into this meaningless final preseason contest having already gone a perfect 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. They beat the Lions 26-20 last weekend but were unable to cover the seven-point spread. But regardless, I think that Mike Tomlin has seen enough. Look for Pittsburgh to just go through the motions here in Carolina this weekend. But for the Panthers, they could really use something positive before heading into the regular season after starting out the preseason by going 0-2 straight up and against the spread. This one simply means MORE to Matt Rhule and the home side. And in this meaningless Week 3 preseason NFL contest, I think that's going to be the difference-maker. Mason Rudolph looked pretty good against a poor Lions team last time out for the Steelers. He saw most of the time in that one, meaning that Dwayne Haskins will likely see most of the time today under center for Pittsburgh. On the other side of the field, the Panthers lost their second straight preseason game, falling 20-3 to Baltimore. Will Grier was efficient though, going 11 of 14 for 144 yards passing. Pittsburgh faded down the stretch there against the Lions last week as it allowed two meaningless touchdowns really late to let Detroit sneak in through the back door. And as I said off the top, I think it'll just go through the motions here as well today. There's nothing left to prove, to figure out, or to play for today for the visiting side. While as I've also outlined, this one sure does mean much more to the winless home side. Albeit winless in the preseason. That's my read in this one. I expect Carolina to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the short points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:00 ET. After this, there's only one week left in the NFLX preseason. New Orleans is off a tough 17-14 Week 1 loss at Baltimore, but I think it'll rebound and give a bigger effort here in Week 2 at home. Jacksonsville fell 23-13 at home to Cleveland. Remember, Urban Meyer is the new head coach of the Jaguars. The Jags' defense looked shaky, allowing 319 passing yards to Cleveland. Last year Jacksonville conceded 264.4 yards passing per game, which ranked 24th in the league. Jacksonville rookie QB Trevor Lawrence was six of nine for 71 yards. The Saints can pin their loss on sloppy play last week, as they committed eight turnovers on offense. Last year the Saints averaged just 1.2 turnovers per game last year. New Orleans' QB Jameis Winston was 7 of 12 for 96 yards and a touchdown. I think New Orleans will clean up its play here though, and that'll be the differene in the end. Jacksonville has so many things to work on, that it's disorginaztion will lead to another poor collective effort. Look for the Saints' defense to take advantage at home and for New Orleans' more experienced offensive unit to do the rest. Lay the points, the play is New Orleans. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The 3rd pick of my STTP is a 10* on the Det Lions at 7:30 ET. The bottom line for this one is, I think this is a great overall situational play. I believe that after two straight wins to open up the NFLX preseason (Pittsburgh won in the Hall of Fame Game as well), that the Steelers are going to take the proverbial foot off the gas finally. Detroit has opened up the preseason by going 0-1. It fell 16-15 at home to the Bills last weekend. Detroit has plenty to work on in the preseason after the departure of main-stay QB Matt Stafford. The Lions actually scored 12 points in the fourth quarter last week and I think they can carry over that momentum from that final frame, to the opener of this one. Remember, this isn't a regular-season game. You can't use the same logic in this instance as you would normally handicap a regular season or playoff contest. I believe that it's foolish to judge a team based upon its form from the previous week in the preseason. Jared Goff threw for 56 yards on 7 of 9 passing and Tim Boyle had 38 yards on 8 of 15 through the air for the Lions last week. Dwayne Haskins saw the majority of the time under center last week for Pittsburgh, and he had 161 yards passing and a TD. I think he'll have his hands full today though with what I expect to be an aggressive Lions rush. I'm banking on the "hungrier" team with more to work on to at the very least, keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Detroit.Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Ravens v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
The 2nd pick of my STP is 9* on the Car Panthers at 7:00 ET. Outright win? Very possible. But in a contest which could very well be decided late, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Ravens beat the Saints in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, while the Panthers are looking to rebound after losing to the Colts. The Ravens somehow managed to win last week despite posting 308 yards of offense, while allowing 366. Trace McSorley had 86 passing yards and one interception while Tyler Huntley had 79 yards passing. Once again starting quarterback Lamar Jackson won't see any time. The Panthers looked pretty good through three quarter last week, but then blew it in the fourth. They posted 313 yards and allowed 427. P.J. Walker led the Panthers with 161 passing yards and one touchdown while Will Grier had 31 passing yards. Clearly the focus for the home side will be on the defensive end this week. Last week it allowed 24 first downs. But I think we'll indeed see a better effort here in Week 2 in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line is, this is the preseason. It's not the regular season or playoffs. Judging a team's form from the previous week (whether good or bad), isn't helpful. This one definitely means a lot more to Carolina. As I say, I think the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Jets v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The 1st pick of my STP is a 9* on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET. The Jets are 1-0. The Packers are 0-1. I say that Green Bay is the "hungrier" dog in this fight and while I certainly wouldn't rule out an outright victory, my official call on this one will be to grab as many points as you can. The Jets are coming off a satisfying 12-7 win over the Giants. Mike White had 127 yards passing, while Zach Wilson threw for 63 yards. It was an awkward victory and I think they'll struggle again with consistency today, especially in this difficult road venue, facing a determined Green Bay side that's seeking its first win of the preseason. The Packers have a lot to work on for sure after their 26-7 loss to Houston. I had the Texans in that one. Jordan Love actually looked pretty good, finishing 12 of 17 for 122 yards and a touchdown. He left with an injury though. And then Kurt Benkert would go for 88 yards and an INT the rest of the way for the Packers. Both teams will be playing backups and wannabe's today. New York though is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a favorite. Give me the hungrier and more determined home side in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-21 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team -4.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game Of the Year is the Washington Football Team at 8:00 ET. This line opened -3.5. Then it was announced that Joe Burrow was not going to be playing at all for the visiting Bengals and the line climbed a few points higher. Regardless of who is under center for the Bengals, I like Washington to not only win on Friday night but to win by a comfortable margin. The Bengals are primed for an immediate letdown as well after their big win over Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the preseason, holding on for the 19-14 victory. Backup QB Kyle Shurmur had 108 yards and an interception on 12 of 19 passing while Brandon Allen threw for 77 yards and a pick as well. Washington is off a loss in New England. It was in contention in the first half, but then it took the foot off the gas. I don't expect the same thing to happen here though at home. Steven Montez has 108 yards passing, a touchdown, and an interception in the setback, while Taylor Heinicke threw for 86 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick had 58 yards in his first game in a Washington uniform. Ron Rivera is known for taking the preseason more seriously than others, and in his first home game of the year with fans in the stands, I expect him to have his team fired up to perform. Expect this to translate into production on both sides of the field for the home side. Lay the points, the play is the Washington Football Team. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +3 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Eagles at 7:30 ET. The preseason has changed. There are now only three weeks being played. This is significant. Traditionally Week 3 of the preseason has been the "dress rehearsal" for the "real thing." That's the game in which the starters see most of the action. But with injuries on the rise, the preseason has been cut to just three games. What effect this will have on how or when starters will see action will differ moving forward. It's going to be a "game to game" thing. And it's going to be different from one team to the next, depending on just which areas they need to work on. Philadelphia looked great in the first half of its Week 1 matchup against the Steelers, as it went into the break with a 16-7 lead. The Eagles clearly took the foot off the gas in the second half though, getting outscored 17-0 the rest of the way. However, having back-to-back home games to open the preseason is not something that I believe the Eagles will take for granted here in Week 2, and before hitting the road in their finale. Polar opposite situation for the Patriots. They were down 7-6 at home to Washington in their preseason opener last weekend, before then outscoring The Football Team 16-6 in the second half. With that satisfying come from behind win in front of the home town crowd, I just can't help but feel the Patriots are primed for a major letdown here. Handicapping preseason NFL games from a "situational" standpoint is a great place to start. And for this pick, it's also where it's going to end. Regardless of who starts, from a situational standpoint, this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion and while the outright win certainly isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-21 | Texans +3 v. Packers | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* Week 1 AFC/NFC "GAME OF THE MONTH" is on the Hou Texans at 8:00 ET. The Houston Texans are coming off a four win season. Their starting QB DeShaun Watson is embroiled in an off-field controversy which will have a lasting effect on the organization moving forward. David Culley is the new head coach of Houston and he'll be eager to post a win here and to start a new narrative for the club. Houston has a decent stable of "backups." Watson isn't expected to play with Houston this year, so Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel will all see time in the preseason. The Packers have had to deal with plenty of off-field issues as well. Aaron Rodgers has finally decided to stay for at least one more year with the Packers, but he won't be seeing any time today. Instead it'll be Jordan Love and Kurt Benkert getting the snaps. The biggest weakness last year for Green Bay was on the defensive side. That'll be an issue again this season. But despite losing JJ Watt in FA, the Texans remain stout on that side of the ball, with veteran Vincent Taylor leading the way. Both teams have plenty of issues. If this was Week 1 of the regular season, I'd likely be backing the Packers in a blowout. But it's not Week 1 of the regular season, it's Week 1 of the preaseason. I think Houston will take this game much more seriously and while the outright is possible, in the end my official call is to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-21 | Bills v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -114 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Det Lions at 7:00 ET. The Bills are predicted to be a Top 5 team. However, this Week 1 Preseason game definitely "means" more to the Lions in my estimation. Remember, in this abbreviated preseason, starters will see even less time. And the time that backups and wannabe's DO have, will be even more precious. Buffalo is an exciting team. I'm excited for "Bills Mafia." QB Josh Allen just signed a huge contract. Overall last season the Bills averaged 31.3 PPG, while allowing 23.4. The Lions have a new head coach and a new QB under center. If this was Week 1 of the regular season, I'd likely be on the Bills in a blowout. But with almost their entire starting line-up resolved, Buffalo doesn't have a lot to work on the pre-season. David Blough and Tim Boyle are backing up Jared Goff in Detroit, and they'll be in a fight for that No. 2 spot throughout the preseason. The Lions averaged only 23.4 PPG, while allowing 32.4 last year, a big reason why there have been so many changes in the offseason. Look for the more determined home side to earn its first victory for its new coach. The play is the Lions. Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-21 | Steelers +1 v. Eagles | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* NFLX Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 7:30 ET. I like the Steelers to build off their Hall Of Fame Game victory. They beat the Cowboys by a score of 16-3. In this abbreviated pre-season, the backups and wannabes have even less time to impress, and any tiny advantages these players have is signficant. With one game under their belts, the Steelers are the savvy move here on Thursday in my opinion. The Eagles have a new head coach in Nick Siranni, and second-year QB Jalen Hurts is now the man under center with Carson Wentz having departed for the Colts. The Steelers' offense was shaky in the HOF Game, but the defense sure looked sharp. Mason Rudolph is fighting for a spot behind Big Ben, and will be in a constant competion with Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs. The defense forced three turnovers and had four sacks. Joe Flacco and Nick Mullins are going to see the majority of the snaps for the Eagles today. Suffice it to say, I trust neither against this opportunistic Steelers defensive unit. Yes, Siranni would LOVE to win his "first" game as head coach for his new team. But this is the preason. I say it's Mike Tomlin and the Steelers who are more organized and who will find a way to deliver on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month is on the Hou Astros (run-line) at 8:10 ET. I think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the much better price. So that's my official call on this one, taking the Astros on the runline option. The hapless Twins turns to Griffin Jax (1-1, 6.41 ERA) out of necessity after trading a few pieces out of the starting rotation recently. The sample size is small, but I say he's in well over his head here on the road against the the Playoff surging Astros. Houston counters with Framber Valdez (7-2, 3.01), who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out six over five innings in a win over the hard-hitting Giants on Friday. So far Valdez has been perfect at home this season as well, going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA. I like Valdez to go deep, and for Jax to get the hook early. I expect Houston to not only win today, but to do so by a significan margin. The play is Houston on the runline. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* Hall of Fame Game play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:00 ET Neither starting QB will see any action today. The Cowboys were a complete mess on the offensive side of the ball without Dak Prescott in the line-up last year and I believe that's going to again be the case in the Hall Of Fame Game. Dallas will also be without WR Amari Cooper. Garrett Gilbert will be getting the start under center for Dallas tonight (also Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush will see time.) We'll also see the backups and wannabe's under WR and RB. Ben Roethlisberger won't be under center tonight for the Steelers, meaning you'd better get ready for a healthy dose of Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins. What I do really like about Pittsburgh in this one though, is that it will be giving RB Najee Harris considerable touches throughout this game and entire preseason. This is the Hall of Fame Game. Pretty much anything can happen. That said, the key talent that's out on the Cowboys offense is significant and their defense, which was a weak point last season, is also a concern this year. Pittsburgh finished with the No. 3 defense last year. Rudolph has seen considerable time under center in the regular season and is probably the best QB on the field tonight. Give me the Steelers to cover the small number. Good luck...Larry |
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07-21-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* RUN LINE Las Vegas Insider is on the Jays. Whoever gets the start for the Red Sox tonight, I like Robbie Ray and the Blue Jays to win by a decisive margin. And that's why I like the home side on the runline option this evening. Garrett Richards (5-5, 4.91 ERA) is scheduled right now to start for the Red Sox. He's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts against the Jays this year and he's 3-5 with a 5.26 ERA in 11 career outings against them. The home side counters with the red hot Ray (8-4, 2.93), who won his only start against the Red Sox this season back in early June, allowing three runs and striking out ten over six innings. Ray has gotten stronger as the season has prorgressed and he gave up no runs over seven innings and struck out ten in a win over the Rangers in his last outing. He has to be feeling confident here as well as he's 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA in all home contests this year. Look for the hard-hitting Jays to take full advantage of their AL East rival, who sits nine games ahead of them in the standings. Toronto not only wins tonight, it wins BIG. The play is the Jays on the runline. Good luck...Larry |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Suns. I had a play on the Suns in Game 5 and while that pick obviously fell flat, I think that Phoenix will at the very least, take Game 6 right down to the wire. Many felt that the Suns were going to sweep the Bucks in four straight in this series and it definitely appeared as if that could happen after Phoenix took the early 2-0 lead. But it's been all Milwaukee since, as the Bucks have a golden opportunity to close out and win the title this evening. It's difficult to beat a team in three straight games. No matter who the opponent is. I think Milwaukee is going to struggle to put away this talented and desperate Suns side. One constant throughout for Phoenix has been the steady play of Devin Booker, who has 82 combined points over his last two games. The Suns bench only produced 15 points last time out, but I don't expect that to happen twice. Phoenix is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge two straight SU/ATS losses to an opponent as well. Look for Chris Paul to bounce back with a big game here and for the Suns to fight tooth and nail until the final buzzer. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Suns. I've been riding the Bucks the last couple of games, but here I'm going the other way in Game 5. So far home court advantage has proven to be the difference-maker for these teams, with the Suns winning Game's 1 and 2 handily, before the Bucks responding in kind in Milwaukee in Game's 3 and 4. Khris Middleton had his biggest game of the Finals so far for the Bucks in Game 4, scoring 40 points, grabbing six boards and dishing out four assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 14 boards and eight assists. Antetokounmpo has been unbelievable so far in the Finals, but other than his big Game 4 appearance, Middleton hasn't been a very big factor in this series. The same thing can be said for the struggling Jrue Holiday, who was just 4 of 20 for 17 points in Game 4 for the Bucks. Clearly, Phoenix has to be happy its back home. That includes Chris Paul, who uncharacteristically struggled in back-to-back games in Milwaukee. Suffice it to say, I don't expect lightning to strike a third time tonight. I say Paul bounces back here at home. Devin Booker led the way in a losing cause for the Suns in Game 4 with 42 points. Paul and Booker have to be feeling confident here though finally, as note that Phoenix is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 home games and 46-19-1 ATS in its last 66 against teams with winning records. After back-to-back victories, a letdown is imminent here for Milwaukee, which is in fact a poor 3-11 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. I look for this home court trend to continue in Game 5. And if this keeps up, we're heading for a Game 7 before you know it! Lay the points, the play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Game 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Bucks. Gentlemen. I had a play on the Bucks in Game 3, a blowout winner and if you didn't get to read that analysis, I'm going to share it now, as the logic and reasoning behind that pick, for the most part also directly apply to my Game 4 selection on Milwaukee as well: GAME 3 ANALYSIS I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce back in Game 3. I'll further add here in Game 4, that the Suns are now going to be forced to double and triple-team Antetokounmpo after his back-to-back historic performances, which will finally give Middleton and Holiday a golden opportunity to break out of their respective funks with a huge game. I say the momentum has now swung back in favor of Milwaukee and I believe the "home court" advantage will once again prove to be a difference-maker as well. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce-back in Game 3. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 2 SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I think the Bucks will make the necessary adjustments to be much more competitive in Game 2. Phoenix had significant advantages in Game 1, which it won't have here. It had a few days of rest between series to focus and regroup. The Bucks finished their series with the Hawks and almost immediately got on a plane to Phoenix. Giannis Antetokounmpo was also a huge question mark going into Game 1. The Bucks had to have two games plans, with or without their super star in the line-up. He played, he was decent and his injury is now behind him. Now Milwaukee can properly focus with its full line-up and I say that's a huge difference here in Game 3. The Suns haven't been perfect during the playoffs, with big lapses in form from game-to-game throughout the Clippers series. This Bucks team is better than Los Angeles in my opinion. Especially with Antetokounmpo now back to full health. I'm not trying to take away how great Chris Paul, Devin Booker and De'Andre Ayton are and have been leading up to this moment, but there's no way the Suns are sweeping this series. While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-06-21 | Bucks +6 v. Suns | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I think there's value to be had here on the undermanned and underdog Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns had a hell of a time putting away Paul George and the Clippers, who had to play without star Kawhi Leonard, arguably a top 3 player on the planet. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. Clearly, that's a huge issue for the Bucks. But I say it's more of an issue over the long-term. Milwaukee will throw its best possible shot here in an attempt to pull off an upset. The Bucks are deep and aren't going to be afraid of Devin Booker whatsoever. Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez have the talent and experience here to pull off an outright upset. That's easier said than done though obviously. The Suns are 33-11 at home. Milwaukee is 25-20 on the road. These teams played twice in the regular season. The Suns won both. Both by a single point. It's double-revenge time here for Milwaukee. With Giannis in the line-up, this line drops to right around +2.5 for the Bucks likely. The Bucks are sitting pretty heading into Game 2 if they can somehow pull off the outright here, as Antetokounmpo would be expected to then return. I say Milwaukee fights tooth and nail and at the very least, takes this one right down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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07-03-21 | Bucks +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 6 SHOWDOWN is on the Bucks. Whether Trae Young plays here or not, I like the Bucks to dig deep and find a way to end this series here and now. They'll be doing that without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who hyper-extended his knee. But Milwaukee was able to win Game 5 handily without its super star as well. The Hawks managed a Game 4 victory at home without Trae Young, but his absesnce was definitely felt in Game 5. Young is listed as a "GAME TIME DECISION" for Game 6. Clearly, if Young does play, he's not going to be at 100% health. Khris Middleton is averaging 22.7 points and 4.7 assists in the playoffs, and he and Jrue Holiday, who is the third double-digit scorer, definitely stepped up and filled the void last time out. Brook Lopez was also key. I think this group has what it takes to end this series, whether Young plays or not. Bobby Portis was another player who stepped up big for Milwaukee, and with group contributions like that, I can't see Atlanta keeping pace down the stretch. While clearly the outright win is very possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -3 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Bucks. The Hawks managed a win at home without Trae Young in the lineup in Game 4, but I think the Bucks will bounce-back and take advantage of familiar surroundings on Thursday night. Young will almost assuredly being play tonight, but even if he does suit up, one has to wonder about his health/form? Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.2 PPG for Milwaukee, but he's out in this one most likely because of a knee injury he suffered last time out. Expect Khris Middleton to pick up the slack here. Much like Atlanta winning without its star in Game 4, I believe Milwaukee can rally here and do the same here on its own floor. Note that Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 90 points or less in. These are two tired and banged up teams. I say though that it's Atlanta which is primed for a letdown here after its upset win in Game 4. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest as well. With its leader sidelined with injury, look for the home side to dig deep and to post a solid SU/ATS victory on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry |
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06-30-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 2 STANLEY CUP FINALS TOP-PLAY is on the Canadiens. Montreal was down 1-3 to Toronto in the first round, before then winning three straight. The Canadiens then took care of the Winnipeg Jets in four straight, before then needing six games to get past the Golden Knights. In every series, the Canadiens have been the underdog and they're obviously once again a big underdog in this game and in this series. Especially after losing 5-1 in Game 1. I think at this price range, that we're getting great value by getting the extra goal and a half in Game 2. I'll caution in over-reacting to one loss by Montreal, as it's been fantastic at making adjustments from game to game throughout these playoffs. I'm not trying to diminish how great the Lightning really are, and their road back to a second Stanley Cup hasn't been any easier than Montreal's. But at the same time, the Lightning sure haven't been perfect in this playoffs. They barely got by the Islanders in seven games and they've been susceptible to letdowns. I think that's going to be the case here. The outright upset is definitely possible. I'm not counting out Carey Price and this under-the-radar Canadiens team ever anymore. The bottom line is I expect Game 2 to be much more competitive, so in a contest that I see being decided late, I'm going to lay the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals. The play is Montreal on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 5 SHOW-DOWN is on the Clippers (analysis posted shortly). Kawhi Leonard will not be playing in this contest, but I think that Paul George and this veteran Clippers team won't be going down without a fight. George had 23 points and 16 boards in his team's 84-80 Game 4 loss. Reggie Jackson added 20 points. George though had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, finishing just five of 20 from the floor and only one of nine from range. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that to happen twice, especially with elimination on the line. The Suns have been fantastic, exceeding everyone's expectations all year. There's also no question that they're in unchartered territory here. I think Phoenix is going to struggle to put away this desperate LA side. The Clippers earn a win here, and they have nothing to lose heading back home for a Game 6. Also note that the Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 points or less in. In what I expect to be another really tight game, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 TIE-BREAKER is on the Hawks. I think this is going to be a war until the final bucket. Whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to be the winner in my estimation, so because of that, I'm going to grab the points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.9 points and 13.2 rebounds for the Bucks in this series, while Trae Young is averaging 29.4 points and 9.9 assists for the Hawks. Milwaukee was much better at home than on the road this year. It's 32-11 ATS at home, and a mediocre 23-19 on the road. Atlanta is better at home too than on the road, going 22-23 away from friendly confines and 28-13 ATS on its own floor. In fact note, the Hawks are 20-6 ATS their last 26 here. Atlanta hasn't lost back-to-back games since May 1st and it's done a great job in making adjustments after a setback each time during the playoffs. I look for that trend to continue here from Nate McMillan, who would have also been a great candidate for Coach Of The Year honors. Grab the points, but don't be shocked if it's outright. Good luck...Larry |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 THRILLER is on the Clippers. Devin Booker and Chris Paul looked exhausted and out of sync in Game 3. I think that Paul George and the Clippers can take advantage here in Game 4 and post a second straight victory on their own floor. Paul had 15 points, 12 assists and three steals, while Booker had 15 points in the setback. Paul was just five of 19 from the floor, while Booker was just 5 of 21. George had 27 points and 15 points, while Ivica Zubac and 15 points and 16 boards. Patrick Beverely had a decent game with eight points and six boards, but he played really good defense against Booker and I expect the veteran to bring that same intensity tonight in Game 4. The Clippers are now 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and they have the experience and home floor advantage to take Game 4 outright. In fact, if not for a tight loss in Game 2, one which could have easily gone in favor of LA, this series would have an entirely different feel to it right now. Even with Paul in the line-up for the Suns and Kawhi Leonard out for the Clippers, I don't think Phoenix is the better team. It's been a great team all year, but it's in unchartered territory at this point. The Clippers are seasoned veterans, all playing with a chip on their shoulders. I think LA is the better team and I expect it to even things up before heading back to Phoenix. The play is the Clippers. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 119 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
The third pick of my STP (a 10*) is on the DODGERS on the run line. I say the starting pitching matchup in this one is so lop-sidedly in favor of the home side, that I'm going to suggest laying the 1.5 runs for the decent return. The visitors go with the volatile Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.45 ERA), who gave up six runs over three innings in a loss to the Marlins. He's now allowed four earned runs in consecutive outings and note that he's been at his worst on the road, going just 3-4 with a ballooned 6.55 ERA. The home side counters with Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 3.00), who has allowed three runs off nine hits over his first three starts of 2021. Gonsolin has been sharp at home this season though, sporting a tiny 2.81 ERA. Recent form tips the scales in favor of Gonsolin here. Expect LA to not only win today, but to win by a significant margin. The play is the Dodgers on the runline. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 7 DECIDER is on the Lightning PUCK LINE. The last time these teams played here, the Lightning won by a score of 8-0. Am I predicting another lop-sided destruction like that again here? Of course not. But I do expect Tampa to Game 7 handily. This sets up well for Tampa. It has the experience and the home ice advantage. The Lightning were 26-8-2-0 at home, while the Islanders are only 16-17-3-1 on the road. Home ice has been crucial for each team in this series of late and I expect that strong trend to continue here. Goaltending and defense, two of the most important factors, are a "wash" for me here. The difference is Tampa's offense (and its experience in big games like this.) Note that the Lightning are 63-17 in their last 80 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. They're also 65-25 in their last 90 when playing on one days rest. It's been an awesome run for the Isles, but I look for Tampa to advance and to play Montreal. The play is Tampa on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry |