Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-22-17 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Warriors/Blazers (10:30 EST). Golden State has a commanding 2-0 lead in this Western Conference Quarterfinal after pulling away for a 110-81 victory over the Blazers. All star Kevin Durant did not even suit up for that one. He’s listed as questionable for tonight. Draymond Green was dominant in the Game 2 victory though, finishing with six points, 12 boards and ten assists. It’s do-or-die for the Blazers essentially as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for the team to overcome. So far Portland has struggled with offense, as Golden State has turned up the pressure and not allowed any free looks for it shooters. I think we can expect an identical game plan from Steve Kerr tonight as well. Note that Damian Lillard was held to just 12 points, including 0 of 4 from behind the arc in the Game 2 defeat. Note that in four of their last five when playing on two days rest, the Warriors have seen the total dip below the posted number. Then there’s the Durant issue as well? All signs point to this one sneaking under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-22-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 187.5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Spurs/Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The Spurs are 2-1 in this series, taking the first two at home and dropping Game 3 in Memphis 105-94. Kawhi Leonard was dominant in the two victories in San Antonio, but was held to just 18 points last time out. Memphis predicates itself on its tough defensive play and it was front and center in Game 3. It will be tough though in my opinion to duplicate that performance against this deep and experienced Spurs side. Regardless, the Grizzlies did look a lot better on the offensive end after struggling at times in the first two games. Zach Randolph had 21 points and eight boards. And I’ll point out that San Antonio has seen the total go over the number in 13 of 20 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Memphis has seen the total eclispe the posted number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-22-17 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 195 | 87-76 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Raptors/Brewers (3:00 EST). Toronto is turning out to be the “Jekyll and Hyde” team of the 2017 playoffs, as you just don’t know what you’ll get from it from game to game. MIlwaukee can smell the blood in the water and will be looking to build off its Game 3 victory and take a 3-1 strangle hold in this Eastern Conference Quarterfinal. I’m expecting Toronto to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to re-assert itself and take the defensive minded Bucks out of their comfort zone. The Raptors couldn’t get anything going in Game 3, falling behind 32-12 in the first quarter. Toronto finished as one of the Top 5 offenses in the league, averaging over 107 PPG, but so far Toronto has been dead last in the playoffs in averaging only 88.7. As good as Milwaukee has been defensively, I think the Raptors finally break out tonight. And I’ll point out that the Raptors have seen the total go over the number in six of their last ten when trailing in a playoff series and in four of their last five in revenging a loss against an opponent, while the Bucks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of eight this year after allowing 85 points or less. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 192.5 | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Bucks/Raptors (7:00 EST). Milwaukee pulled away for a 97-83 win in Game 1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to come out fired up tonight and to push the pace from start to finish. The Bucks are going to have to match pace if they have any shot at pulling off another upset. A faster paced game usually translates into a higher-scoring affair and that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 28 points plus eight rebounds in the Game 1 win to lead Milwaukee. The Bucks were 12 of 15 from the line, compared to 24 of 33 for the Raptors. This is basically a “must-win” game for Toronto now. The Raptors though have to be feeling pretty confident as they’d won 13 of the previous 15 regular season contests against Milwaukee. Toronto was one of the highest scoring team’s in the league and I’m fully expecting a return to the norm this evening. I’ll point out that Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 this season off an upset win as an underdog, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of 13 this year when playing on two days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the OVER. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 | 109-121 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 EST). The 41-41 Portland Trailblazers are in Golden State to take on the 67-15 Warriors in Game 1 of their Western Conference first round matchup and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Blazers had a three-game win streak snapped with a 103-100 home loss to New Orleans in their finale on Wednesday, while the Warriors won for a 15th time in their last 16 games with a 109-94 victory over the Lakers later that same night. Golden State has won ten of the last 11 in the series, including all four this year, most recently a 113-110 road victory on January 29th. The Warriors have to be feeling pretty confident here as they won the lone playoff series between the clubs, 4-1, in the 2016 Western Conference semifinals. Portland averages 107.9 PPG and concedes 108.5. Golden State averages 115.9 PPG and concedes 104.3. I’ll point out though that the under is 5-1 in Porland’s last six against the Pacific and 4-1 in its last five following a SU loss, while Golden State has seen the under go 5-1 in its last six quarterfinals matchups and 10-3 in its last 13 at home. Both teams tightend up defensively down the stretch and I expect that to carry over here. They can still both score in triple-digits and have this total fall under this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 212.5 | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Nuggets/Mavericks (8:35 EST). The 38-42 Denver Nuggets are in Dallas to take on the 32-48 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. These are two teams playing out the end of their respective seasons. Denver fell apart in a 106-105 home loss to OKC on Sunday, while Dallas lost its fourth straight and its eighth out of its last nine after falling 124-111 at Phoenix on Sunday. Denver has taken two of three in the season series, including a 110-87 win at home on February 6th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score this evening as well. Denver is the third highest scoring team in the league with an average of 111.8 PPG and it’s horrible defensively, ranked 27th in conceding 111.5. But I think the Nuggets finally have a letdown here, as the loss to Oklahoma City, coupled with the Blazers victory on Saturday put the final nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. It’s a classic “letdown” spot if I’ve ever seen one. The Mavs started slow, had a small mid-season surge and then predictably fell apart down the stretch. Dallas will end the season ranked dead last in PPG with 98. Dallas is decent defensively though in conceding only 100.8. I’ll point out that Denver has seen the total go under the number in six of nine this year against poor offensive teams that average 98 points or less per contest, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly 13 of 21 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. A couple of disinterested teams put forth a half-assed effort and this one falls under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Thunder/Suns (10:05 EST). The 45-33 OKC Thunder are in Phoenix to take on the 22-57 Suns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. OKC currently sits in sixth spot in the West, while the Suns are playing out the tail end of a miserable season. The Thunder come in off an ipressive 103-100 road win over the Grizzlies. Russell Westbrook had 45 points, nine boards and ten assists. He needs just one more Triple-Double to surpass Oscar Robertson on the all time list. Westbrook had eight three-pointers in that one and the Thunder shot 45 percent from range. But that’s hardly been the norm this year though, as note that OKC does rank as one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 33 percent. Phoenix comes in off a 120-111 loss to the Warriors. Devin Booker had 21 points, three boards, five assists and three steals. The Suns looked particularly horrible on the offensive end, shooting only 41.7 percent from the floor. They also turned the ball over 16 times. I’ll point out that OKC has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Phoenix has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after allowing 120 points or more. The Thunder look to close the regular season strong. They don’t need to push the pace of this one to win, so expect the visitors to control the tempo. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-07-17 | Spurs v. Mavs OVER 190 | Top | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Spurs/Mavericks (8:30 EST). The 60-18 San Antonio Spurs are in Dallas to take on the 32-46 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. San Antonio had won three straight and eight of nine before a humbling 102-95 home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, while Dallas lost its second straight and sixth of its last seven after a 112-101 road loss to the Clippers on Wednesday. The Spurs play with revenge here, as Dallas scored the 105-101 road upset in the last matchup on January 29th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. San Antonio averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 98.2. The Mavs average only 97.9 PPG and allow 100.5. San Antonio is resting its star players, which means that the backups will be looking to make a statement today and take advantage of the opportunity. Neither team has anything to play for, as Dallas is out of the playoffs, while San Antonio is locked into second in the West no matter what happens over the last few games. I don’t think much effort will be put onto the defensive end tonight. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-07-17 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Heat/Raptors (7:35 EST). The 38-40 Miami Heat are in Toronto to take on the 48-31 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Heat broke a two-game slide with a 112-99 victory in Charlotte on Wednesday, while Toronto rallied to beat the Pistons 105-102 on the road for its eighth win in its last ten games on the same night. Note that Toronto has taken two of three in the season series this year, which includes a 101-84 victory in the most recent matchup on March 23rd. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Miami is in a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the East. The Heat only average 102.9 PPG, but make up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 101.9. Clearly Miami can ill afford to get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Raptors, who average 107.1 PPG. The Heat will have to do what they do best and that’s play tough, full court defense from start to finish if they have any hopes whatsoever in scoring the upset this evening. Toronto is ranked seventh in scoring defense in conceding 103.1 PPG. The Raptors have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but after their epic come-from-behind win over the Pistons and with road games at New York and Cleveland to close out the regular season, Toronto could no doubt be caught a little flat-footed and “gassed” tonight. I’ll point out that the under is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine following a straight-up win over more than ten points and 4-1 in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Toronto has seen the under go 6-2 in its last eight after allowing 102 points or more in its previous outing. I’m expecting an all out war and for this one to fall under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |