Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My NBA 10* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Chi Bulls at 10:10 ET. The Golden State Warriors went from FIVE consecutive appearances in the NBA Finals to 15-50 in the 2019-20 season. Last season was better (39-33) but NO one expected the Warriors to open the current season 10-1. Any doubts these days regarding Steph's greatness? The Warriors will welcome the Chicago Bulls to San Francisco tonight in front of the ESPN cameras. The Bulls are coming off a 31-41 season, missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. However, Chicago has opened 8-3, after routing the Brooklyn Nets 118-95 on Monday and following with a 117-107 win over Dallas (both games were played in Chicago). |
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11-12-21 | San Diego State v. BYU -3 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on BYU at 9:00 ET. Both the San Diego State Aztecs and the BYU Cougars basketball programs have produced some impressive AP-ranked teams for many seasons now. SDSU's Brian Dutcher took over for his mentor Steve Fisher and is entering his fifth season, He's gone 96-31 in his first four, inducing 23-5 last year. Mark Pope is in just his third season at BYU but has delivered a 44-15 two-year mark, including 20-7 last season. Neither team is in the latest top-25 poll but expect to see them sometime during the current season. BYU lost guard Averette (11.7 PPG / 2nd-leading scorer) and the 7-3 Haarms (11.3 & 5.0) but got the unexpected return of guard Parcello (16.1-4.7-4.2). He led the Cougars with 24 points on 5 of 6 shooting with a perfect 13 of 13 mark from the foul line along with 4 assists. Guard Spencer Johnson added 13 points, while the 6-7 Caleb Lohner added seven points with a team-high nine rebounds. Making contributions up front were the 6-6 George (seven rebounds) and the 6-6 Traore (8 rebounds and 3 blocks in 24 minutes off of the bench). |
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11-12-21 | Bucks v. Celtics +2 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* ESPN 'Table-Setter' is on the Bos Celtics at 7:40 ET. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will visit Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Neither team can be too happy where it stands coming into this one. The Bucks are 6-6 and the Celtics are 5-6. Milwaukee let a 24-point lead slip away vv New York on Wednesday night, but the Bucks still found a way to pull out a 112-100 win on the road against the Knicks. Milwaukee has now won back-to-back games, after dropping five of its prior six games. As for Boston, the Celtics got some revenge with a 104-88 home win against the Raptors on Wednesday after being blown out by Toronto in a 32-point defeat in the Celtics' home opener.
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11-12-21 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Western Ky at 6:30 ET. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers meet Friday from US Cellular Center in Minneapolis (not the Gophers' homecourt). The Hilltoppers are coming off a 21-9 season in which they lost in the C-USA championship game while Minnesota saw a 9-1 start to its 2020-21 season (No. 21 in the AP poll) fall apart by losing 14 of its final 19 games to finish 14-15, That was enough to end Richard Pitino's 8-year run at Minnesota, as Ben Jonhson takes over (first head coaching gig). In contrast, Rick Stansbury enters his sixth season at Western Ky, having won 20-plus games in each of his last four. Gone from last year's team are the 6-9 Bassey (17.6 & 11.6) and guard Holingsworth (13.9). However, Stansbury has a solid core of two guards and two froncort players on this year's team. The Hilltoppers' 79-74 opening win over Alabama St was hardly impressive but the 6-8 Hamilton had 21 points and the 6-9 Butz added 12 & 6. Guards McKnight (19-5-6) and Anderson (12 & 7) both played well. Minnesota also opened with a less-than-impressive win over UMKC. There was a mass exodus at Minnesota, as players transferred right and left (NONE of last year's starters are back!). Most notbaly, Minnesota lost (to Texas) one of last season's best backcourt players in Carr (19.4-4.0-4.9). The 6-7 Battle (18 points) and the 6-9 Curry (7 & 7) look like Minnesota's best frontcourt players and Willis and Stephens (both had 13 points vs UMKC) as the best backcourt performers. The Golden Gophers were picked to finish last in the Big Ten preseason media poll and the team has more questions than answers. Yes, WKU came out slow in its opener as a big favorite but the team made adjustments and came out with a win. Rick Stansbury led Miss St to 11 postseason bids in hsi 14 years at Starkville and is again proving he's a winner at Western, ky. The hilltoppers win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner (O/U) is on Mia/LAC under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers began the season knowing Kawhi would miss most if not all of it. The Clipps started slowly but will take a five-game winning streak into a home contest against the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat will enter off a 120-117 overtime defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, which followed a 113-96 loss in Denver on Monday. Wednesday's loss was the THIRD in four games for the Heat but more notably, they lost star Jimmy Butler (23.6-5.5-5.1) after 12 minutes because of a sprained right ankle. His status for Thursday's game remains in the air. Bam Adebayo (19.3 & 11.6) scored 28 points and Tyler Herro (20.9-5.3-3.9) had 27, but the Heat missed five free throws and two 3-point attempts by Herro in the final 50.9 seconds of overtime. Miami led 106-97 with 4:45 remaining in regulation before the Lakers rallied to tie it. The Clippers made it FIVE straight wins with a 117-109 victory at home over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Paul George (26.7-8.3-5.4) had 24 points and got 23 from Reggie Jackson (17.6-3.5-4.5), while Nicolas Batum (12.1 & 6.3) was right behind the leading scorers, hitting six 3-pointers while scoring 22 points. The Clippers seem to have found their 'mojo.' The team-wide approach has shown on both offense (balanced scoring) and also on defense, leading to four consecutive victories by at least an eight-point margin. Both teams have been known as strong defensive ones. Miami enters allowing 103.2 PPG (6th) and Los Angeles 103.2 PPG (7th). This is a great situational play. Not only is Miami dealing with some off-court issues (COVID related), but it's also off an exhausting (and disappointing) 120-117 overtime loss at the Lakers just last night.The last thing that LA will want to do here is to play at a fast pace, as that plays right into the Heat's strength on the offensive end. The Heat will almost assuredly double-down on the defensive end as well. This one sets up as well from a number of different ways to be much more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-21 | Detroit +5 v. Wyoming | Top | 47-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Ls Vegas Insider is on Detroit at 9:00 ET.
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11-10-21 | Kings v. Spurs +1 | Top | 117-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SA Spurs at 8:40 ET. The San Antonio Spurs return home after a 99-94 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday, a game in which they squandered a 16-point first-half lead before fighting back to make it a one-possession game in the final seconds. The ability to "close out games" has been lacking so far for the 3-7 Spurs (more later). The Sacramento Kings are 5-6 this season, as they look to end the longest active playoff drought of any NBA franchise (Kings have missed the last 15 postseasons!). San Antonio led by 10 at the half at OKC but was outscored 34-14 in the third period as it missed 11 of its final 13 shots in that quarter. "We got to learn from that -- not just settling and doing what we do to keep those leads," guard Lonnie Walker IV said. "We just got to come together. When these scoring droughts come, we try and do it ourselves." Keldon Johnson (16.2 & 5.8) led the Spurs with 22 points in the loss while Walker (12.3 & 5.6 APG had 15 off the bench, Drew Eubanks scored 14 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, and Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott and Thaddeus Young added 10 points apiece. Eubanks and Young are role players but PG Murray (17.6-8.1-8.3) is San Antonio's best player. As for center Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7), Popovich added that he isn't sure about his availability this week as he deals with health and safety protocols. "We know he is not going to be ready for (the Kings game) or Friday (against Dallas)," Popovich said. The Kings visit San Antonio on the heels of a 109-104 home loss to defending Western Conference champion Phoenix that went down to the final seconds. Sacramento's poor third quarter allowed the Suns to build a 21-point lead early in the fourth, but the Kings rallied to within a possession before a late turnover and free throws by Phoenix closed out the game. The Kings played against Phoenix without guard Tyrese Haliburton (13.6 & 5.0 APG), who had lower back tightness. Sacramento has depth at the guard position with PG Fox (18.6 & 6.2 APG) and Hield (17.4 & 5.4), who started (has been coming off the bench). SF Barnes (22.5 & 8.7) is having a career season plus undersized center Holmes (14.6 & 10.5) just seems to get better. Baylor rookie Mitchell IS getting better by the game and is up to 9.9 PPG on the season. The 3-7 Spurs have good peripheral numbers, as they're ranked third in the league in pace, ninth in the league in field goal percentage, second in assists, sixth in steals, and they're tied for fifth in defensive rating. Maybe that's why they are 6-4 ATS. Six of San Antonio's seven losses this season have come by an average of five points and while they'll have to win to cover here, I have little faith in the Kings, who just NEVER seem to fulfill any perceived promise. Pop over Luke Walton ANYTIME! Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Hawks +8 v. Jazz | Top | 98-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My NBA 10* East/West Game of the Week is on the Atl Hawks at 9:10 ET. The Atlanta Hawks began last season off FIVE consecutive fifth-place finishes but won the Southeast Division last year with a 41-31 record. They then made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals, beating the East's top-seeded 76ers, before losing to the Bucks, the eventual NBA champs. Atlanta opened 3-1 this season but has suddenly 'fallen apart,' by losing SIX of seven, including four in a row. The Hawks are in Salt Lake City along with the team's 1-6 record on the road. The Jazz owned the NBA's best regular season record last season but lost in the second round of the playoffs to Denver. The Jazz opened the current season 7-1 (won 116-98 in Atlanta on Nov 4) but enter this contest off back-to-back losses at Miami (no big deal) but also at Orlando (not good!). The Jazz are 7-3 on the season (3-0 at home). No way to explain Atlanta's poor start, as the team has a terrific team leader in PG Young (23.7 & 9.5 APG), who is surrounded by a strong starting cast and plenty of depth. Young plus PF Collins (16.3 & 8.9), SG Bogdanovich (12.4) and center Capela (9.6 & 10.9) have started all 11 games, while SF Hunter (11.7) has started 10 of 11. Throw in Reddish (11.9), Gallinari (7.3) and Huerter (6.9) and it's a 'head scratcher' that the Hawks are playing this poorly. Utah can easily match Atlanta's 'cast of characters.' SG Mitchell (25.8-4.3-5.3) and PG Conley (16.1 & 4.8 APG) are the starting backcourt (Conley has missed three games), while SF Bogdanovich (16.9 & 4.6) and PF O'Neale (7.3 & 4.6) surround center Gobert (15.2 & 16.1). Clarkson (14.4) was 6th-man-of-the year last season and comes off the bench with guard Ingles (8.5),who has started the three games that Conley missed, and center Whiteside (7.1 & 7.9). The Charlotte Hornets lost to the Clippers 120-106 as six-point underdogs (got outscored 27-4 to end the game) on Sunday but then last night the Hornets played the second game of a back-to-back and lost to the Lakers just 126-123 in overtime. This Atlanta Hawks team finds itself in a similar position, as it comes to Utah off a 127-113 road loss at Golden State just last night. If this were the end of the season, fatigue would be an issue. However, we're still in the first month of play and these elite athletes will only benefit from the quick turnaround as they try to get back into the winner's circle. I like betting on motivated teams and after arguably being the biggest surprise team last season, their early play sio far has been a HUGE dissappointment. A little revnge motive from a beatdown by the Jazz back in Atlanta (see above), only adds to the motivation. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Pepperdine v. Rice -6.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Rice at 8:00 ET. The Pepperdine Waves and the Rice Owls meet Tuesday in college basketball action from Tudor Fieldhouse in Houston. Pepperdine had an up-and-down campaign in 2020-21, going 7-6 in WCC play. The Waves ended up in fourth-place in the conference standings behind Gonzaga (15-0), BYU (10-3) and Loyola Marymount (7-5). Pepperdine took out Santa Clara 78-70 in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament but lost in OT to BYU 82-77 in the semis. The Waves got an invite to the CBI, where they beat Longwood, Bellarmine and Coastal Carolina en route to a tournament championship, finishing 15-12. As for Rice, the Owls dealt with injuries and COVID issues all season, finishing 6-10 in C-USA West play. However, the team won TWO games in the C-USA tourney, before falling in the semis 73-60 to UAB (ending the year at 15-13),
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11-09-21 | Kansas -4 v. Michigan State | Top | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Champions ClassicShowdown is on Kansas at 7:00 ET. Bill Self's Jayhawks finished 21-9 last season, including a loss in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.Not what was expected of a team ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Michigan St owns a pretty famous head coach as well in Tom Izzo and his Spartans started at No. 13 at the opening of the 2020-21 season struggled in the regular season. Mich St made the NCAA tourney at 15-12 but was eliminated in a First Four game by UCLA. Kansas begins the current season ranked No. 3, while Michigan St is unranked (Spartans received the most votes of any team left out of the Top 25). Kansas faces Michigan State on Tuesday in college basketball's annual season-opening showcase (State Farm Champions Classic) at Madison Square Garden in New York. Self's team is 'loaded.' Remy Martin (19.1 PPG last season), an Arizona State transfer, was named the preseason player of the year in the Big 12. Two other veterans, the 6-10 David McCormack (13.4 & 6.7) and SG Ochai Agbaji (14.1), were also named to the preseason all-conference team. Another returning starter, Jalen Wilson (11.8 & 7.9), will miss the Champions Classic after drawing a four-game suspension for an arrest on DUI charges. No Michigan State returnee averaged double figures in scoring last season. However, Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker should provide punch after averaging 18.8 & 4.8 APG while also being named the CAAs top defender. Max Christie (24.0 & 10.1 in HS) is the top addition among freshmen and will play along the wing with long-range marksman Gabe Brown (42% on three-pointers). A late-season push enabled Michigan State to earn its 23rd consecutive NCAA Tournament bid a year ago before it finished an uncustomary 15-13. Tom Izzo enters his 27th season as head coach. Izzo should have an NCAA tourney team by year's end but Kansas is the MUCH better team here on Nov 9. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Toledo -4 v. Valparaiso | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Toledo at 7:00 ET. The Toledo Rockets of the MAC and Valparaiso Beacons (former Crusaders) of the MVC meet Tuesday in college hoops at the Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, In. The Rockets won the MAC last season at 15-4 but lost in the MCA tourney so missed the NCAAs (finished 21-9). The now-Beacons have a rich tradition (can you say the Drew family) but won just 10 games last year (18 losses), as they enter Year Six under head coach Matt Lottich.
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11-09-21 | Belmont v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Ohio U at 7:00 ET. The Belmont Bruins and Ohio Bobcats meet Tuesday in college hoops at the Convocation Center in Athens, Oh. (I know it well!). The Belmont Bruins are coming off a 26-win season but losing in the OVC tourney cost the Bruins an NCAA bid. The Ohio Bobcats finished a modest 9-5 in MAC play but surprised most by winning the MAC tourney and then upset 4th-seed Virginia 62-58 in the first round of the "Big Dance." Ohio would lose its next game 72-58 to Creighton but no one was complaining in Athens. Belmont is used to winning, having won 20-plus games in 15 of the last 16 seasons (exception was a 19-win season), with EIGHT trips to the Big Dance. The Bruins return all five starters from last season, starting with the 6-11 Nick Muszynski (15.0 & 5.6), guards Smith 12,7), Wood (11.3) and Murphy (10.9 & 5.8 APG) plus the 6-8 Hollander (9.3 & 4.7). 6th-man, the 6-6 Sheppard (10.5), is also back. Ohio guard Preston (15.7-7.3-7.3) left for the NBA (1st Ohio player picked in the draft since Brandon Hunter is 2003) but PG Sears (8.5 & 3.3 APG) plus perimeter players Roderick (12.4) and McDay (10.2) also return. Up front, the 6-8 Vander Plas (12.8 & 5.8) and the 6-8 Wilson (14.5 & 8.7) are still around. I have the utmost respect for Belmont but this Ohio U team is 'sneaky' good. In fact, Ohio ended last season on a 10-2 ATS run, including 6-1 as an underdog. "The Convo" will be 'rocking' tonight. Grab any points available. Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-21 | Nets v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Chi Bulls at 8:10 ET The 7-3 Brooklyn Nets are in the midst of a six-game road trip (longest of the season) and visit Chicago tonight after winning at Detroit and Toronto, extending the team's overall winning streak to FIVE in a row. The Bulls opened the season 6-1 but are coming off consecutive losses against the Philadelphia 76ers.
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