My 10* ACC Game of the Month is on Louisville at 8:00 ET.

Louisville (6-7 in 2021) will square off at Syracuse (5-7) Saturday night in the season opener for both teams. Both teams are hoping to break through in the ACC Atlantic Division in 2022. Louisville hasn't done much lately, although the Cardinals did go 9-4 in 2016 and 8-5 in 2017 behind QB Lamar Jackson (Jackson won the Heisman in 2016). That said, Louisville begins this season just 20-29 (.408) the last four seasons. Syracuse is only 29-43 in six seasons under Dino Babers, with just 11 wins in the past three years. Syracuse won just five games last season, but it was a rebound campaign from the forgettable 2020 season (1-10).

The Orange's Sean Tucker, was the top rusher in the ACC last season, setting a school-record with 1,496 rushing yards. However, Syracuse had the ACC's worst passing offense last season. QB Garrett Shrader struggled at times after taking the starting job late in the season. He's back, but the team is thin at QB after former starter Tommy DeVito left and won the starting job at Illinois. The Syracuse defense continues to struggle, having allowed 30 or more points in FIVE of the last seven seasons. Returning to Louisville, the Cardinals are led by dynamic QB Malik Cunningham, the ACC's top rushing QB. Cunningham returns after becoming the second QB in school history to rush for over 1,000 yards. He rushed for 1,031 yards (6.0 YPC / 20 TDs), while passing for 2,941 yards (19 TDs and 6 INTs.

The bottom line is that Louisville has dominated Syracuse by going 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, with an average margin of 31.0 PPG. What changes here? NOTHING!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Coastal Carolina at 7:00 ET.

The Army Black Knights and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers meet Saturday in college football action from Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC. Jeff Monken was named Arm's head coach in 2014. His Army tenure started slow, with a 4-8 2014 season and 2-10 in 2015. However, he's led Army yo 52-27 record the last six years, taking the Black Knights to FIVE bowl seasons (4-1). In 2018, he became the first head coach to lead Army to three consecutive bowl appearances, consecutive 10-win seasons, and its first ever 11-win season. That resulted in a final AP Poll ranking of No. 19[ for Monken's 2018 Black Knights, the highest the Black Knights had finished in the final polls since legendary Army coach Earl 'Red' Blaik's 1958 squad. Jamey Chadwell's CCU team has been one of CFB's best storylines the last two years with Chanticleers going 11-1 in 2020 and 11-2 in 2021.

Army's "not so secret" strength is its option attack. The players/parts change but the results remain steady. The last six seasons, Army has averaged between 273 YPG on the ground, finishing second in the nation in 2021 by averaging 280.6 YPG with 48 TDs. However, Coastal Carolina has gotten extra time to prep for the option and the Chanticleers have experience facing it against Georgia Southern. CCU dominated Ga Southern at home last season, holding the Eagles to EIGHT points in a 28-8 victory. The Chanticleers lost leading rusher Jones (1,040 yards / 13 TDs) but feel that Bennett (636 yards / 8.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and White (515 yards / 7.2 YPC / 7 TDs) will capably fill the void. The great news is that QB Grayson McCall returns, off passing for 2,873 yards with 27 TDs and just THREE interceptions.

Army is a dangerous underdog, but the Black knights aren't getting enough points here. CCU has outscored opponents 37.2 to 20.3 in 2020 and 40.9 to 21.6 the last two seasons and own a 13-1 home record the last two seasons (lone loss by TWO points to Georgia Southern). I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SD State at 3:30 ET.

The Arizona Wildcats open their 2022 season with a visit to San Diego to face the Aztecs, who open their brand new on-campus stadium. Arizona's last winning season was back in 2017 (7-6). The Wildcats fell to 5-7 in 2018 and 4-8 in 2019. Then, Arizona went 0-5 in the COVID season of 202 and then 1-11 in 2021. In stark contrast, SD State has been to 10 bowls over the last 11 seasons, including going 12-2 last year, after a 38-24 Frisco Bowl win over UTSA.

Arizona gets a boost at QB, as Jayden de Laura, the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman Player of the Year while at Washington State last season, takes over at QB. He completed 227 of 359 passes for 2,798 yards, with 23 TDs and nine INTs in 2021. However, the Wildcats' have allowed 39.8 PPG in 2020 and 31.4 PPG in 2021. The fact that eight defensive starters return is not necessarily a "good thing" Speaking of defense, SD State has allowed 12.7 PPG, 17.8 PPG and 19.8 PPG (last season). The fact that EIGHT starters return on that side of the ball is a "GOOD thing."

SD State lost their 1,000-yd rusher Greg Bell (1,019 yards) and its top-two QBs. However, the Aztecs add former Va Tech QB Burmeister (1,960 yards with 14 TDs and 4 INTs in 2021) plus still have a deep stable of productive RBs. I refuse to overthink this. SD State has to be thrilled to begin the season from brand new Snapdragon Stadium, after playing its home games the last two seasons in Carson, Ca (two hours away). "B-L-O-W-O-U-T" Alert issued.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Appalachian St at 12:00 ET.

North Carolina (1-0) comes in off 56-24 home drubbing of FAMU, while Appalachian St will be playing its season opener. Mack Brown did an excellent job making North Carolina 'more than just a basketball school' back in the 1990s but then left for Texas. He would go 158-48 in his 16 years at Austin, leading the Longhorns to 15 bowl games. He posted 10 or more wins in NINE consecutive seasons (from 2001-09), famously winning the 2005 national championship over a great USC team. However, Texas would go just 30-21 from 2010 through 2013 and Brown resigned. He stepped away for five years but returned to North Carolina in 2019. The Tar Heels have gone a disappointing 21-17 in that span, as their explosive offense has been brought down by a leaky defense.

No one will forget Appalachian St's shocking 34-32 road win over Michigan back in 2007, when the Mountaineers were still an FCS team. App St is now an FBS member and doing just fine. The Mountaineers have gone 83-19 (.814) the last seven years (2015-21), winning SIX consecutive bowl games before losing to WKU in last year's Boca Raton Bowl. They've had THREE different head coaches in that span, but the winning has never stopped.

North Carolina QB Drake Maye has big shoes to fill in replacing record-setter Sam Howell. However, he fit into them just fine last Saturday in his debut for the Tar Heels. Maye threw five TD passes in his team's 56-24 win over visiting Florida A&M to become the first Tar Heels QB to accomplish the five-TD feat in his first career start. That said, winning at home vs a mediocre school like FAMU is one thing, winning at App St (38-5 the last seven years), is another. The Mountaineers have their own talented QB Chase Brice, who was just named last week to the watch list for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, a befitting honor for the sixth-year redshirt senior who established a school-record 3,337 passing yards last season. App St also returns the RB duo of Noel (1,128 yards / 5.7 YPC) and Peoples (926 yards / 14 TDs). FOUR of their five starting OL returns.

In-state bragging rights are at stake here and has noted, Appalachian State has repeatedly found itself in the top-25 since moving up to the FBS. Appalachian State defeated North Carolina in 2019 at Chapel Hill, a loss that didn't sit well with Tar Heels fans given the Mountaineers have always been viewed as the little brother. Boone, North Carolina will be 'rocking' for this 12 noon ET start and I say "the little brother" gets a surprisingly comfortable win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big 10 Game of the Month is on Indiana at 8:00 ET.

Two teams that don't figure to contend in the Big 10 conference in 2022 meet Saturday, when Illinois (5-7 LY) visits Bloomington to face Indiana (2-10 LY). Bret Bielema took over at Wisconsin when Barry Alvarez retired in 2006 and in seven years went 64-28, earning SEVEN consecutive bowl berths. He left to take the Arkansas job but went only 29-34 in five seasons and then spent a few years as as an NFL assistant, before being hired at Illinois for the 2021 season after Lovie Smith was fired, The Illini do have a game under their belts in 2022, having routed Wyoming 38-6 last Saturday.

Tom Allen took over at Indiana after Kevin Wilson abruptly resigned back in 2016. He opened with back-to-back 5-7 seasons but led Indiana to a Gator Bowl berth and an 8-5 record in 2019, The Hoosiers were a HUGE surprise in the COVID season of 2022. They finished the 2020 regular season 6-1 ranked seventh in the AP poll, eighth in the coaches' poll, and 11th in the CFP rankings and earned a bid in the Outback Bowl, where they lost to Ole Miss, 20–26. Following the culmination of the season, Allen would be named the 2020 Big Ten Coach of the Year, Allen's 2021 Indiana team was ranked 17th to begin the 2021 season, but quickly fell out of the rankings after a 34-6 loss to Iowa in their first game of the season. The team finished the season 2-10 and went 0-9 in Big Ten play.

Tommy DeVito, a transfer from Syracuse, was named the starter for Illinois (1-0) days before the opener. He was 27-of-37 for 194 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. RB Brown added 151 yards rushing with two TDs, The Hoosiers are taking a page from Illinois coach Bret Bielema's book by withholding the identity of their starting QB for the Friday night affair in Bloomington.  Fifth-year senior Jack Tuttle started two games in 2021 but wasn't handed the starting job. He said he has carried himself "with a chip on my shoulder" since the end of last season, but he's locked in a duel with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. The former Tigers' QB made 20 starts at Mizzou and passed for 5,058 yards with 23 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a 66.3 completion percentage.

Here's why I like Indiana in this spot. The winning team has covered 14 straight in this series. Maybe even more notable for this game is that Indiana is a MONEY-MAKING 11-2 ATS as a home favorite during Allen's tenure. Expect Indiana to get the win at home and move the series win/cover streak to 15 in a row!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* CFB 2022 Season Opener is on UTEP at 9:00 ET.

North Texas and UTEP both ended last year's regular season at 6-6 and went 'bowling.' However, each team's journey to those 6-6 finishes came via very different paths. The Mean Green opened 1-6 but finished with FIVE straight wins (and covers), highlighted by the team's 45-33 win (as a 10-point home underdog) over an 11-0 UTSA team that was ranked No. 15. The team averaged a whopping 283.0 YPG rushing in its closing 5-0 run, including 340 against the Roadrunners. In stark contrast, UTEP got off to a surprising 6-1 start, before losing FOUR of five to end the regular season. What the teams did have in common was that both lost their respective bowl games. Of note, for UTSA's Seth Littrell, it was his FIFTH bowl appearance in his six seasons at UTSA. Meanwhile for UTEP head coach Dana Dimmel, last year's bowl game was the school's FIRST since 2014. What's more, UTEP's SEVEN victories in 2021 matched UTEP's total over the previous FIVE seasons combined.

Deandre Torrey (1,215 / TDs) left for the NFL but was just released by the Eagles. North Texas does have equality and depth at RB but I don't see any way the Mean Green will average 233.5 YPG rushing like last season (5th-best in FBS). A real issue for North Texas is the team's QB play Austin Aune did lead North Texas to its season-ending five-game winning streak but as noted above, he was more of a 'caretaker,' as the Mean's Green's devastating rushing attack carried the load. Aune completed just 51.9 percent last season with 9 TDs and 9 INTs. That was a big drop off from his 13 TD, 4 INT season of 2020.

The Miners own a solid edge at the QB position, as Gavin Henderson made a big leap from 2020, passing for 3,218 yards with 18 TDs and 13 INTs in 2021. It can NOT go unmentioned that in 2021, Hardison became the first UTEP signal caller to surpass 3,000 yards passing in school history. I believe he will be the "difference-maker" in this one. Let me add that UTEP also has a solid edge on defense with EIGHT starters back. The home team has covered SIX straight in this series and UTEP is 7-2 SU at home the last two years. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Georgia at 8:00 ET.

I'm not sure that most wanted to see Alabama and Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game at Indianapolis on January 11. Alabama took apart Georgia 41-24 in last month's SEC title game and the one-sided nature of the contest dulled excitement over a possible second meeting. However, after Alabama eased past Cincinnati 27-6 in its CFP semifinal and Georgia destroyed Michigan 34-11 in its semifinal, an all-SEC rematch is what's 'on the menu' Monday night. The Crimson Tide are defending champions and are looking for their FOURTH title in eight seasons under the CFP format. Coach Nick Saban has won SIX national titles at Alabama and seven overall. One of the CFP titles was a 26-23 overtime victory over Georgia in the 2017 championship contest. That came in Kirby Smart's second season at the helm, after his stint as Saban's defensive coordinator at Alabama.

Georgia was the nation's best team all season, entering the SEC title game against Alabama 12-0 (Georgia's sixth 12-win season, three under Smart) and with a defense that had allowed just 6.9 PPG (hadn't allowed more than 17 points in any game). However, Alabama put up 536 total yards against the 'impregnable' Georgia defense, led by eventual Heisman winner Bryce Young. The Alabama QB passed for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. WR Jameson Williams had seven receptions for 184 yards and two scores, as Alabama easily dissected the vaunted Georgia defense.

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett threw for 340 yards with three TDs (but two INTs, including a "pick-6") but was overshadowed by Young. However, he was outstanding against Michigan, completing 20 of 30 for 313 yards with 3 TDs and not a single INT. Georgia TE Bowers (52 catches / 16.3 YPC / 12 TDs) had 10 catches for 139 yards (one TD) vs Alabama and then five catches for 55 yards (one TD) vs Michigan. Georgia's running game has two good but far from great RBs in White (772 yards / 5.3 YPC / 10 TDs) and Cook (651 yards / 6.1 YPC / 7 TDs). Then again, Georgia is averaging 39.4 PPG, so the offense is doing something right. That Georgia "D" that was humbled by Alabama, returned to form vs Michigan, holding the Wolverines to 11 points (Michigan's lone TD came with 4:25 left in the game) and to just 91 rushing yards (Michigan entered the game averaging 223.8 YPG).

Young was well-deserving of the Heisman, completing 67.6% for 4,503 yards with 46 TDs and just 5 INTs (490 attempts). RB Robinson enters with 1,275 yards rushing on 5.1 YPC and 14 TDs. He was less than 100 percent vs Georgia (55 yards) but looked like 'Superman' vs an excellent Cincy defense, rushing for 204 yards. WR Metchie (96 catches / 8 TDs) was lost to injury vs Georgia (won't play here) but Williams has caught seven passes against Georgia and Cincy, giving him 75 on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with 15 TDs. Note that Williams had a combined 15 catches his previous two seasons at Alabama. Wanna bet against the possibility that Alabama may have "another Williams" on its roster just ready for primetime? The Alabama defense showed some vulnerable moments during the regular season but enters allowing 20.2 PPG on 304.6 YPG. The Tide "D" came up with numeros "big plays" vs Georgia in the SEC title game and made Cincy's offense look like a 'Pop Warner' team (held the Bearcats to two FGs and 214 total yards).

OK, we all know that Saban has never lost to a former assistant in his time at Alabama (25-0) and Kirby Smart is 0-4 vs his former boss. That said, I remember watching that Alabama/Georgia game and the Bulldogs looked like the WAY better team in taking a 10-0 lead in the early second quarter. However, Alabama just 'exploded,' scoring 24 points before halftime. The Tide then opened the third quarter with a "pick-6," which broke Georgia's will. The Bulldogs are slight favorites, despite Alabama's overwhelming historical edges. My 'gut' says Georgia and that's my play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 8:45 ET.

The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to a 10-2 record, as the Rebels get set to face 11-2 Baylor, which won the Big 12 championship with a 21-16 victory over Oklahoma St. Without a doubt, this contest is one of the more intriguing New Year's Day Six bowls. Ole Miss entered its season finale (The Egg Bowl vs Miss St) with 9-2 record. The program had produced SEVEN career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. The Rebels' 31-21 over the Bulldogs gave them their first-ever 10-win regular season and with a Sugar Bowl win, would have the school's first-ever 11-win season. 

Baylor hired Dave Aranda, LSU's DC who helped the Tigers complete one of the best-ever, single-seasons in CFB history in 2019. LSU went 15-0 in 2019 and while Joe Burrow and the offense (48.4 PPG) got most of the accolades, Aranda's defense held opponents to just 21.9 PPG. His first season at Baylor suffered because of COVID (like many programs), as the Bears would finish 2-7. However, it was a 'New Day' in 2021 for Baylor which earned a trip to the Big 12 championship game where it held on to beat Oklahoma St, 21-16. It marked Baylor's third Big 12 title but first-ever by capturing a win in the championship game.

Baylor averages 32.5 PPG with a VERY balanced attack, as the Bears have averaged 216.0 YPG passing and 214.9 YPG on the ground. QB Bohannon is solid, completing 64.3% for 2,160 yards with 17 TDs and 6 INTs. He has added 303 yards, adding 9 more scores. RB Smith (1,429 yards on 6.2 YPC with 12 TDs) is a stud, plus fellow RB Ebner has 763 yards on 5.4 YPC with 2 TDs. The team's top WR is Thornton (61 catches / 15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) plus TE Sims has 31 catches with 6 TDs. Defense is an Aranda staple and Baylor enters having allowed 19.2 PPG.

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral announced before the Egg Bowl that he would enter the 2022 NFL Draft but he decided to play for the Rebels in this game, first (so many have opted out in similar situations). It's an understatement that Kiffin was thrilled and so was OC Jeff Lebby, who is headed to Oklahoma after this game. The two will have a chance to produce the kind of numbers the Rebels did in the regular season, ranking fourth in total offense at 506.7 YPG (35.9 PPG). Like Baylor, Ole Miss has great balance, passing for 281.9 YPG and rushing for 224.7 YPG. Corral has completed 68.4% for 3,339 yards with 20 TDs and 4 INTs, plus has run for 597 yards and 11 TDs. He is just one of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and at least 10 rushing scores. RB Ealy has 703 yards rushing (5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and Conner has 605 yards (5.1 YPC plus 13 TDs. Ole Miss is the nation's ONLY offense with four rushers with at least 500 yards, as Parrish has 542 yards. WR Drummond (67 catches with 8 TDs) is the team's No. 1 receiving threat, but Corral has plenty of other options (targets). How about this? Ole Miss is also the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! The defense is allowing 25.0 PPG but that's down from the 38.3 PPG Kiffin's Rebels allowed in his first in Oxford last year.

Kudos to Aranda and this Baylor team but Ole Miss is 'playing in its backyard' here in the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss is 12-2 in its last 14 bowl games dating back to the 1992 Liberty Bowl and 10-4 in bowls against current Big 12 members. The play is Ole Miss. "Hotty Toddy!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rose Bowl play is on Ohio St at 5:00 ET.

"The Granddaddy of them All" gets a terrific matchup in No. 6 Ohio St (1-2) playing No. 11 Utah (10-3). Ohio State had aspirations of playing for the national championship and will be 'on a mission' to make up for its 'disaster' against Michigan back on Nov 27, while Utah is playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time since joining the Pac-12 for the 2011 season. 

Let me take a quick look at the two teams. Ohio St was shocked at home Sep 11th by Oregon (lost 35-28) but then won NINE straight games, averaging 49.6 PPG. When the Buckeyes visited Michigan on Nov 27th, most rated Ohio St as CFB's 2nd-best team next to unbeaten Georgia. However, Michigan then played a 'game for the ages' and a week later, Alabama crushed Georgia in the SEC championship game. Utah was NEVER in consideration for a CFP berth, but the Utes do enter the Rose Bowl with SIX straight wins and NINE in their last 10 games.  Utah is clearly the Pac-12's best. However, the question is, what does that mean?

Utah's claim to fame is that the Utes pounded Oregon by margins of 31 and 28 points late in the season, the latter in the Pac-12 title game. However, let me state this unequivocally, Oregon is a fraud. Yes, the Ducks shocked Ohio St in Columbus but did absolutely NOTHING after that. Oregon's two losses to Utah exposed them as one. If one wasn't convinced, Oregon's pathetic performance in its bowl matchup with Oklahoma (Ducks trailed the Sooners 30-3 at the half), should have cleared up any doubters (note: I used Oklahoma as a LEGEND Play!).

Forget all the season stats on the two teams and yes, Ohio St has seen some key players 'opt out,' but look at the respective conferences of Utah and Ohio St. Pac-12 teams are 0-4 in the bowls, while the Big Ten was 5-0 until Georgia (arguably still CFB's best team), crushed Michigan last night.  Utah is 11-3 in bowl games under head coach Kyle Whittingham but has lost its last two, 38-10 to Texas in the 2019 Alamo Bowl and 31-20 to Northwestern in the 2018 Holiday Bowl. As noted above, this is Utah's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance and I'm betting the Utes aren't up to the challenge of this "big stage." A January appearance in Pasadena is hardly new to the Ohio St program, as the Buckeyes make their 16th Rose Bowl appearance on Saturday. Ohio St heads West with a chip on its shoulder and something to prove against a Utah team that's only claim to fame this season is that it is the best school from the worst Power-5 conference in CFB. Ohio St rolls.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma St at 1:00 ET.

The 51st Fiesta Bowl is a meeting of two teams that have never faced each other in football, when No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 9 Oklahoma State play on New Year's Day at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. Notre Dame just missed making the final four of the College Football Playoff, while Oklahoma State fell short by just inches thanks to a touchdown-saving tackle from Baylor that, if not made, would have won the Big-12 Championship Game for the Cowboys and given them a strong case for the playoff. That set-up gives the Fiesta Bowl a terrific matchup between two schools with something to prove. On the coaching front, OSU's Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has now led Okie St to 16 straight bowl appearances (more in a bit). As for Notre Dame, the ever-classy Brian Kelly jumped ship at Notre Dame for LSU, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to be coached by first-time head coach Marcus Freeman. 

Spencer Sanders (69.5% for 2,469 yards with 16 TDs and 12 INTs) is not a great QB but he also adds 543 rushing yards on 4.2 YPC with 5 TDs. RB Warren (1,134 / 4.8 YPC / 11 TDs leads a rushing game that averages 182.3 YPG, to give the OSU offense a nice balance (passing game averages 221.2 YPG). The Cowboys average 30.6 PPG which goes well with defense allowing just 16.8 PPG (8th) on 273.6 YPG (3rd). Notre Dame averages 35.3 PPG on offense and its defense allows a modest 18.3 PPG (10th) on 338.8 YPG. QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin transfer) has been OK but surely nothing special, completing 67.8% for 2,468 yards with 20 TDs and four INTs. RB Williams (1,002 on 4.9 YPC / 14 TDs) has opted to sit out in preparation for the NFL Draft, which will put a lot of pressure on Coan, who relies on TE Mayer (64 catches / 5 TDs) and WR Austin (42 catches / 18.6 YPC / 6 TDs. Note: The Irish running game will go up against an OSU rush D allowing 89.2 YPG (5th) without Williams.

Taking a closer look at the teams' schedules, we find that Okla St was 4-0 vs ranked teams until that last-second heartbreaker to Baylor in the Big 12 championship game. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has played a relatively weak schedule. Notre Dame's won 41-13 at then-No. 18 Wisconsin but note that the Badgers led 13-10 in the 4th quarter, before IMPLODING (ND scored the game's final 31 points!), The next weekend, Notre Dame lost at home 24-13 to Cincinnati. Notre Dame went undefeated the rest of the way but did they Irish really beat anyone of note? Trust me, they didn't. By the way, the Cincy team that beat them in South Bend was able to produce just 13 FDs and 218 yards against Alabama in Friday's Cotton Bowl! One last thing. Mike Gundy is 10-5 SU/ATS in bowls at Oklahoma St and is on a 5-0 ATS win streak in bowls. ND has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000 and is 0-7 SU/ATS, getting outscored 263-102! Seems like any easy choice. Of course, there are NO sure things but I'm "all over" the Cowboys!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Georgia at 7:30 ET.

Friday night's Orange Bowl clash between No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia is the very definition of a Marquee Classic. The only 'bigger' matchup we would have this season would be a national championship showdown featuring No. 1 Alabama vs the winner of this game. That seems likely, as the Crimson Tide are two-TD favorites over Cincinnati but then again...

To put it mildly, Jim Harbaugh's 'seat' was VERY 'hot' in Ann Arbor, as he began the 2021 season with ZRO victories over rival Ohio St and the same number of bowl victories since his first season on the job. However, Year 7 has been the breakthrough season Michigan fans had been expecting, as the Wolverines dominated Ohio St 42-27 back on Nov 27 and then in what could have been a "let down" situation, buried Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship game. So, it's been a 'Lucky' Year 7 so far for Harbaugh, as the Wolverines make their College Football Playoff debut when 12-1 Michigan faces 12-1 Georgia in the Orange Bowl on Dec 31 at Miami Gardens, Fl.

Kirby Smart has had much more success at Georgia than Harbaugh has had at Michigan, but the fact remains that the Bulldogs have yet to 'win the big one' during Smart's tenure. It looked like it was finally Georgia's 'turn' back in the 2017 season when Smart coached Georgia to its first SEC title since 2005, and only the fourth 12-win season in school history (1980, 2002, 2012). On December 3, Georgia was ranked No. 3 by the College Football Playoff Committee and played No. 2 Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day. Georgia rallied from a 31–14 first-half deficit, ultimately defeating Oklahoma 54–48 in double overtime, completing the largest comeback in Rose Bowl history. However, the Bulldogs went on to lose to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game 26-23, when Alabama freshman QB Tua Tagovailoa relieved Jalen Hurts and ended the game on a 41-yard TD completion to DeVonta Smith in overtime. Now, here in 2021, Georgia was the nation's best team all season, entering the SEC title game against Alabama 12-0 (Georgia's sixth 12-win season, three under Smart) and with a defense that had allowed just 6.9 PPG. You all know that result, as the Tide rolled over the Bulldogs 41-24. Alabama put up 536 total yards against the 'impregnable' Georgia defense, led by eventual Heisman winner Bryce Young. The Alabama QB passed for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. 

What we have here is a Michigan team on a roll and seeking its first national championship since 1997 and an embarrassed and angry Georgia team looking to bounce back off the Alabama loss and get a chance to play for the school's first national title since 1980, when it was led by Senator Herschel Walker! JT Daniels was supposed to lead the Bulldogs this season, but he was just never really healthy, as Bennett stepped in completing 64.1% for 2,325 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs. Georgia does not own a prolific passing attack, as TE Bowers (47 catches / 16.6 YPC / 11 TDs) is the only receiver with more than 30 catches. White (718 yards / 10 TDs) and Cook (619 yards and 7 TDs) are the top-two RBs but three more add between 243 and 317 yards. It all adds up to a rushing game averaging 194.8 YPG. Bottom line, Georgia is averaging 39.4 PPG, which works well with defense allowing 9.5 PPG (despite the 41 points allowed to 'Bama) on just 254.4 YPG (2nd).

Speaking of a balanced offense, Michigan passes for 228.1 YPG and runs for 223.8 YPG. Let me note here that last season's 2-4 Michigan team averaged 132.0 YPG on the ground. QB McNamara has had a solid season, completing 64.6% for 2,470 yards with 15 TDs and just 4 iNTs in 308 attempts. Freshman RB Hawkins has been great, running for 1,288 yards on 4.9 YPC with 20 TDs. Joining him is Corum, who has added 939 yards on 6.7 YPC with 11 TDs. There are no receiving starts on the Michigan roster, but the Wolverines enter averaging 37.7 PPG. Defensively, Michigan allowed 34.5 PPG on 434 YPG last season but it's a 'brand new season,' as this year's stop-unit has allowed just 16.1 PPG on 315.8 YPG.

At first blush, taking Michigan plus a TD (and a 'hook'?) seems tempting plus it's hard NOT to notice that the Big Ten enters Dec 31 a perfect 5-0 in the bowls, while the SEC, considered that nation's best conference for quite some time now, is just 2-4. However, when I look at this Georgia team, I see a defense that gave up 10 or fewer points NINE times, pitching three shutouts. In fact, the Bulldogs allowed nearly one third of their point total -- 41 of 124 -- in that 17-point loss to Alabama in the SEC title game. "It is new life, it is one game and you have to win to advance," outside linebacker Nolan Smith said of the national semifinal. "A lot of people watch Georgia football for a long time and a lot of people didn't get this opportunity that we have had, and now that we have it, we have to seize it." Georgia ranks seventh in scoring offense (39.4) and scored at least 30 in 11 straight games prior to the Alabama loss.

Georgia has extended its bowl streak to a nation-leading 25 in a row with this appearance and the bitter loss (humbling one) to the Crimson Tide is serving as motivation. I'm laying the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Cotton Bowl Showdown is on Cincinnati at 3:30 ET.

The 12-1 Crimson Tide (12-1) are coming off an impressive 41-24 over Georgia in the SEC championship game and are the No. 1 seed in this year's College Football Playoffs. This is 'old hat' for Alabama, as the Tide are making their SEVENTH appearance in the eight years that the current title-deciding format has been in place. Waiting for them in the Cotton Bowl (played at Arlington, Tx) will be 13-0 Cincinnati. The No. 4 Bearcats are the first non-Power 5 conference program to be selected for the College Football Playoff, breaking that proverbial 'glass ceiling.' Alabama "won it all" last season (52-24 over Ohio St) plus won the national title during the CFP era in 2015 and 2017, while taking a loss in the 2016 and 2018 title games. "There's a reason they've been in the playoffs seven out of the eight years," Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said of Alabama. "This is not just a top-five program; this is THE top program." No doubt that it is a formidable challenge for Cincinnati, but the first step is overcoming the Alabama mystique. "Our players know who they're playing," Fickell said. "They know what (Alabama) is all about, what that program is all about. Now we have to try to find ways to humanize them and bring ourselves back into doing what we need to do. The reality is we're not the best team, probably. But that doesn't really matter, because on the 31st, it's really going to be about who is going to play the best." I think Fickell (did he really turn down the ND job?) has it "just right!

The Bearcats will rely on the nation's second-best pass defense (168.3 YPG) to contain Heisman Trophy-winning Alabama QB Bryce Young. Overall, the Cincy defense allows just 16.1 PPG (5th) on 304.9 YPG (8th). The offense is led by QB Ridder, who has completed 65.9% for 3,190 yards with 30 TDs and just 8 INTs (in 355 attempts). He's a dangerous runner, who has gained 371 yards with 6 TDs. RB Ford (an Alabama transfer in 2019) is outstanding, gaining 1,242 yards on 6.2 YPC with 19 TDs. WR Pierce leads with 50 catches (167.3 YPC / 8 TDs) and is joined by WR Scott (26 / 18.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and TE Whyle (25 / 6 TDs). Bottom line, the Bearcats have averaged 39.2 PPG to rank 8th in scoring.

The Heisman-winning Young has completed 68.0% for 4,322 yards with 43 TDs and just 4 INTs in 462 attempts. He was the Heisman favorite going into the SEC championship game but 'nailed it down' by passing for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. John Metchie III (96 catches with 8 TDs) was one of two 1,000 yard receivers on the team (Jameson Williams is the other with 68 catches on 21.3 YPC with 15 TDs), but he's out with injury. RB Brian Robinson Jr. (1,071 yards on 4.8 YPC and 14 TDs) will be tested by going up against a Cincinnati defense that allowed just 3.3 YPC. The Alabama offense averages 42.5 PPG and while its defense has had some so-so efforts during the season, the unit enters this game allowing 20.2 PPG (20th) on 304.6 YPG (7th).

The team stats are pretty similar but of course, Alabama has done it while playing in the SEC, compared to Cincy, which plays in the ACC. I agree that it's hard to see the Bearcats winning this game outright but taking two TDs allows plenty of room for error. The Cincinnati defense has 18 picks (third in the nation in the regular season) and 37 sacks (tied for 19th). Overall, Cincinnati has forced 33 turnovers on the season. Does this tid-bit matter? The Crimson Tide are 5-1 in national semifinals, with the loss coming in the inaugural CFP in 2014. That 42-35 setback came against Ohio State, which had Fickell as its co-defensive coordinator. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Music City Bowl play is on Tennessee at 3:00 ET.

The 8-4 Purdue Boilermakers and the 7-5 Tennessee Volunteers meet in Thursday's Music City Bowl from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. It sets up as a clash of styles, as Tennessee's up-tempo offense goes up against Purdue's defense. The Purdue defense has lost George Karlaftis and on offense, WR David Bell, who caught 93 passes this season with 6 TDs. The Vols lost RB Evans to the transfer portal (headed to Louisville) but his absence in no way compares with Bell's loss for Purdue.

Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and went 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee. Heupel (an outstanding QB for Oklahoma) has helped Hendon Hooker develop into a true dual-threat QB. He took over as the starter Sep 18 and went 6-4 as a starter throwing 24 TD passes with only two interceptions. His season stats are 69.0% for 2,567 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs plus ran for 561 yards with 5 TDs. His running, along with Small (612 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Evans (525 yards / 6.5 YPC / 6 TDs) give the Vols an average of 211.6 YPG (20th). Tennessee averages 247.1 YPG giving it great balance and average 38.8 PPG (39th). Two WRs have 50-plus catches in Tillman (57 / 16.3 YPC / 9 TDs) and Jones (52 / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs). More in a bit.

Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, the Boilermakers have won eight games this season, including wins over then-No. 2 Iowa (24-7) and then-No.3 Michigan St (40-29). Fifth-year senior QB Aidan O'Connell led the Big Ten completing 73.5% of his passes and has completed 74% or better in SEVEN straight games. He enters this game with 3,178 passing yards (23 TDs / 8 INTs) but as noted, will not have WR Bell here. That;s BIG deal, especially when one notes that Purdue's running game is basically non-existent, averaging 84.2 YPG (127th). The Purdue defense allows just 20.5 PPG (22nd), a full SEVEN points less than Tennessee's.

Let me start with Purdue. The program has been known as a 'giant killer' and as noted above, produced wins over Iowa and Mich St in 2021. What's more, QB O'Connell was at his best against top competition, averaging 433.7 yards, completing 75.3% of his passes and throwing nine TDs with no interceptions in games against Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. However, Tennessee is hardly a 'big fish,' but rather a team in search of an eighth win. That said, head coach Josh Heupel can become just the sixth Volunteers' coach all-time to win eight or more games in his debut season. 

Getting back to QB Hooker, he has climbed UT’s record book, but in a steady way that matches his even-keeled personality. Hooker is first in completion percentage (69%) and passing efficiency (182.16), sixth in total offense (3,128 yards), seventh in TD passes (26) and 12th in passing yards (2,567) in a single season in UT history despite starting only 10 games. His method involves consistency and poise. His 182.15 passer rating led the SEC and ranked third nationally. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 11 straight games, tied for the fourth-longest streak in school history. With due respect to O'Connell, I think Hooker gives Tennessee the edge at QB and it's no small matter that this game is being contested in Nashville. The Volunteers not only score fast, they have outscored opponents 169-44 in the first quarter this season.

I'd love a repeat of that here! Tennessee has won FOUR straight bowl games, all against Big Ten opponents, and is 11-5 all-time against Big Ten teams in bowls.

Here's what I wrote when taking Tennessee over Kentucky back on Nov 6. "The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here at Kentucky and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game." The Vols beat Kentucky that day 45-42, lost to Georgia (no surprise) but beat South Alabama and Vandy. Now, to complete my earlier "prediction," the Vols need to win and of course, cover! That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on Oklahoma at 9:15 ET.

The 10-3 Oregon Ducks and the 10-2 Oklahoma Sooners meet Wednesday in The Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The Ducks are hoping to reach 11 wins for the EIGHTH time in school history, while the Oklahoma Sooners look for an 11-win season for the SEVENTH time in the last nine years. Both schools will be playing under an interim head coach, as Oregon's Mario Cristabol left Eugene for "South Beach" (Miami-Fl) and Lincoln Kennedy left Norman for the "Bright Lights of Hollywood" (USC). Assistant coach Bryan McClendon will coach the Ducks while the Sooners have decided that former head coach Bob Stoops, is the right man for this "ONE-game" coaching opportunity.

Oregon shocked then-No.3 Ohio St 35-28 back on Sep 11 in Columbus and entered the last few weeks of the season 9-1 and ranked No. 3. However, Oregon lost 38-7 at then-No.23 Utah on Nov 20. Two weeks later in the Pac-12 championship game (Dec 3 in Las Vegas), the No. 10 Ducks were again dominated by No. 17 Utah, 38-10. Oregon is led by QB Anthony Brown, who has completed 63.7% for 2,683 yards with 15 TDs and 6 INTs, while rushing for 637 yards (4.5 YPC / 9 TDs). RB Dye has 1,118 rushing yards (5.8 YPC / 15 TDs) and also leads the team in receptions with 41. Just ONE receiver has more than 30 catches in Williams (35 / 15.9 YPC / 4 TDs). Oregon averages 31.4 PPG and allows 25.5 PPG.

Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 team in the preseason poll and QB Spencer Rattler was the Heisman-favorite. The Sooners began 5-0 as they got set to meet Texas in the annual Red River Showdown on Oct 9. However, while Oklahoma was ranked No. 6, the Sooners were HUGE underachievers up to that point. Take away a 76-0 win over Western Carolina and the Sooners were 0-4 ATS, beating Tulane by five points (at -31.0), Nebraska by seven points (at -22.5), by three points over West Va (-17.5) and Kansas St by six points (-12.0). Texas jumped out to a 28-7 1st-quarter lead but after Rattler was replaced by Caleb Williams, who threw for 212 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) and ran for 88 yards (1 TD), as Oklahoma outscored Texas 32-7 down the stretch for a 55-48 win. Rattler was benched and Williams would complete 62.5% for 1,670 yards with 18 TDs and 4 INTs (he's run for 408 yards on 4.7 YPC with 6 TDs. RB Brooks has run for 1,111 yards (6.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and five receivers have 30-plus catches (Mims has 30 catches with a 21.6 YPC average and Haselwood leads with 39 catches and 6 TDs). Oklahoma averages 38.4 PPG and allows 25.3 PPG.

Oklahoma was 9-0 when it lost 27-14 at then-Nov 13 Baylor on Nov 13 and after a home win over Iowa St, lost again 37-33 at then-No. 7 Oklahoma St on Nov 27, costing them a berth in the Big 12 championship game. Both schools come off disappointing finishes to the regular season and as noted above, each will have an interim head coach for this game. Oregon was able to convince most of their departing coaches to stay for this game but almost all of the key figures have jobs lined up so they’ll have divided attention. The good news for Oklahoma was that it was able to pull Bob Stoops out of mothballs to lead this team. While he may not fully be involved in game-planning, he should have this team ready to play. Incoming coach Brent Venables was able to keep one of the more important assistants in OL/Running Game coach Bill Bedenbaugh who should keep this offense on track for QB Caleb Williams. Which team will 'Remember the Alamo?' My bet is Oklahoma.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pinstripe Bowl play is on Maryland at 2:15 ET.

The 6-6 Maryland Terrapins and the 6-6 Virginia Tech Hokies meet Wednesday in the Pinstripe Bowl from Yankee Stadium. Maryland opened 4-0 but needed to win its final game of the season (40-16 over Rutgers) to get its sixth win. Va Tech opened the season with a 17-10 home upset of preseason No. 10 North Carolina and was 3-1 but then lost FOUR of its next five games.Like Maryland, the Hokites needed a win in their final game to become bowl eligible. The Hokies did just that, beating in-state rival Virginia 29-24 on the road. It was an emotional win for Va Tech, which had fired head coach Justin Fuente after a 5-5 start. J.C. Price was named interim head coach and will coach the Hokies again in this one.

Maryland is led by QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who has completed 68.4% for 3,595 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs. His top targets are WR Jarrett (56 catches / 5 TDs) and TE Okonkwo (49 catches / 5 TDs). RB Fleet-Davis (664 yards on 5.5 YPC with 8 TDs) is the only player with more than 300 yards rushing, as Tagovailoa doesn't get much help from his running game which averages 130.7 YPG (94th). The defense is allowing 32.4 PPG (105th) but I'll have more on that later.

Va Tech QB Burmeister completes just 55.7% for 1,961 yards with 14 TDs but only four INTs. RB Blackshear has 711 yards rushing (5.9 YPC / 6 TDs) for a running attack that averages 190.6 YPG (35th). Burmeister adds to the rushing game, gaining 521 yards on 4.5 YPC and 2 TDs. Va Tech has traditionally been known for its defense and this year's unit is solid, allowing 22.9 PPG (42nd).

These two former Atlantic Coast Conference foes will face off for the first time since 2013 in the Pinstripe Bowl. Maryland left the ACC for the Big Ten after the 2013 season and hasn't seen the Hokies since. Third-year Maryland head coach Mike Locksley is putting extra value on the bonus practices the Terps are getting. He'll aim to use those to prepare for next season. Playing in a bowl is a big deal for the Terps. This is the first time Maryland has gone to a bowl game since 2016 and hasn't won a bowl game since the 2010 Military Bowl.

Meanwhile, this game marks a period of transition for Virginia Tech. Former coach Justin Fuente was fired in November after a 5-5 start in his sixth season. Two weeks later, the Hokies announced the hiring of Brent Pry, Penn State's former defensive coordinator who was an assistant at Virginia Tech early in his career. However, leading the Hokies in this game will be interim coach J.C. Price, a Virginia Tech graduate who coached the Hokies' defensive line this past season. He finished the regular season 1-1, getting Virginia Tech bowl-eligible for the 34th time by beating rival Virginia in the regular season finale.

Bowl experience helps but the Hokies will be short-handed, as QB Braxton Burmeister has entered the transfer portal after starting in all 12 games, leaving junior Connor Blumrick and freshman Tahj Bullock to try and fill the void on short notice. Also opting out of playing in the bowl for Virginia Tech are its top-two pass catchers, Robinson (44 / 5 TDs) and Turner (40 / 3 TDs). The Tech offense, even against a weak Maryland defense, will have trouble matching points up against the dangerous Tagovailoa,

Here's the rub. Maryland is in over its head in the Big Ten and lost 51-14 to Iowa, 66-17 to Ohio St, 34-16 to Minnesota, 31-14 to Penn St, 40-21 to Mich St and 59-18 to Michigan. However, the Terps went 6-0 in its other six games, beating West Va, Howard, Illinois, Kent St, Indiana and Rutgers. I put Va Tech in the class of that second group, NOT the first! Terps roll.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Liberty Bowl play is on Miss St at 6:45 ET.

The 6-6 Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the 7-5 Mississippi St Bulldogs Tuesday in the Liberty Bowl. Matt Wells is in his third season with Tech, after leading Utah St to bowls in FIVE of his six years with the Aggies. However, his Texas Tech teams went 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons, before becoming bowl eligible in 2021 at 6-6. Mike Leach is the head coach at Miss St but knows Texas Tech VERY well. He was hired in 2000 and fired in 2009, amid allegations of abusing players (I'll leave that alone). What he did do was WIN, taking the Red Raiders to bowls in each of his 10 seasons in Lubbock. He was hired at Washington St in 2012 and after a 3-9 first season, led the Cougars to bowls in SIX of the next seven seasons. He moved on to Texas Tech in 2020 and went 3-7 amid COVID but got a bowl invite, anyway, eking out a 28-26 win over Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl. This year's team became bowl-eligible the old-fashioned way, winning seven games.

Texas Tech opened the season with a 38-21 win over Hoston, which wouldn't lose again until the AAC championship game at Cincinnati (13-0 and in the CFP). QB Columbi took over at QB when Tyler Slough was lost to an injury. He's completing 64.2% for 1,291 yards with 5 TDs and 5 INTs. The running game is below average, rushing for 150.8 YPG (7th). The defense allows 32.1 PPG and is particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.6 YPG (118th). That spells bad news when facing Miss St.

Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense has a perfect QB in sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 75.1% for 4,449 yards with 35 TDs and eight INTs. Rogers has thrown for over 300 yards in 11 of his 12 games (lone exception was 294 yards vs NC St in a 24-10), topping 400 yards in four of them. The running game averages a woeful 63.9 YPG (130th) but RB Marks (388 yards and 6 TDs) is second on the team in receptions (79 for 3 TDs). WR Polk has 98 catches (9 TDs). The defense allows 25.3 PPG (56th) and just 331.3 YPG (ranks 22nd).

The Red Raiders are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs SEC schools and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 neutral-site contests. Miss St entered its final game of the season, the Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss, on a five-game ATS winning streak, before losing 31-21 to an Ole Miss team that just completed its first-ever 10-win regular season (This just in,,,Ole Miss is pretty good). Miss St owns wins over NC St (finished 9-3 and currently ranked 18th), then-No. 15 Texas A&M, then-No. 12 Kentucky and then-No. 17 Auburn on its resume. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders don't have a SINGLE win all season over a team in the same class as those four teams Miss ST beat. One last thing. Leach believes he was treated VERY unfairly by Texas Tech back in 2009 and that memory is still pretty 'fresh.' The phrase goes, "Give me Liberty (Bowl) or Give me Death!" Expect Leach (led by Rogers) to hand out some 'death' to Texas Tech on Tuesday. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun was hired in Dec 2006 to take over for the retiring Fisher DeBerry, who in 23 seasons led the Falcons to 12 bowls (12 in his 1st 19 years, before falling off his final four). Calhoun "never missed a beat,' leading Air Force to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. Back-to-back 5-7 seasons followed in 2017 and '18 before an 11-2 season in 2019. COVID pretty much wiped out the school's 2020 season (3-3) but this year's team is 9-3 as it gets set to meet Louisville in the First Responder Bowl, played in Dallas at Gerald R Ford Stadium (SMU's home field). Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield was at Appalachian St when it moved up to FBS status in 2014 and went 7-5 that first season. He then led App St to four straight bowl appearances, winning the first three, before resigning before the New Orleans Bowl in 2018 to take the Louisville job. The Cardinals went 8-5 in 2019 (won the Music City Bowl over Miss St) but fell to 4-7 in 2020. The 2021 season was an up-and-down one but at 6-6, the Cards are back to being bowl eligible.

The Cardinals' offense revolves around dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham, who has completed 62.0% for 2,734 yards with 18 TDs and 6 INTs. He has also run for 968 yards on 6.0 YPC with 19 TDs. He has been responsible for 37 scores and is the ONLY player in the nation who has both rushed and passed for more than 15 TDs. RB Mitchell adds 722 yards on 4.7 YPC (5 TDs), as Louisville averages 211.8 YPG (19th). That would be an impressive stat, but Air Force runs for 341.5 YPG, tops in the nation. QB Daniels has thrown for only 932 yards (5 TDs / 3 INTs) but is the team's second-leading rusher with 698 yards on 5.0 YPC with 9 TDs. Brad Roberts paces Air Force's rushing attack with 1,279 yards (4.6 YPC) and 13 TDs. Three more RBs chip in between 360 and 471 yards, averaging 6.1, 7.7 and 8.6 YPC.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, Louisville allows 27.0 PPG on 402.5 YPG. In stark contrast, Air Force has allowed 19.1 PPG (13th) on 288.8 YPG (5th). Louisville has faced EIGHT bowl-bound teams this season, going just 2-6, while allowing 33.0 PPG. Meanwhile, the 9-3 Falcons came pretty close to going 12-0 and playing for the Mountain West Conference title. Their three losses were all one-possession defeats, by a total of 17 points. Trends favoring Air Force are Louisville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral-field contests, while Air Force is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games. Air Force's HIGHLY underappreciated defense and its relentless ground attack (which will keep Cunningham on the sidelines) will be too much for Louisville to handle.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Frisco Bowl-Part 2 is on North Texas at 3:30 ET.

Thursday's inaugural Frisco Football Classic was created after the regular season to help accommodate a game for every eligible team. Both the Texas Mean Green and the Miami-Ohio RedHawks finished their regular campaigns with 6-6 records with North Texas dominating previously unbeaten No. 15 UTSA at home on Nov. 27 to become bowl-eligible.

Both teams played on November 27, Miami at Kent St and North Texas at home against UTSA, which came to Denton 11-0 and ranked No. 22 in the CFP standings. Miami engaged in a shootout with Kent, kicking a FG with FOUR seconds left to send the game into OT. Kent St got the ball first and took a 48-41 lead. Miami then scored a TD as well but went for the win with a two-point try. It failed, giving Kent St the MAC East title and leaving Miami at 6-6. In stark contrast, North Texas CRUSHED the then-undefeated Roadrunners, winning 45-23 while rolling up 370 yards on the ground! North Texas opened its season 1-6 but finished by winning its final FIVE games both SU and ATS (will enter this game on a 6-0 ATS run!).

I'm going to 'cut to the chase' pretty quickly here. North Texas averages 246.0 YPG on the ground, third-best in the nation behind Army (286.9) and Navy (341.5). However, Army averages just 94.8 YPG through the air and Navy just 82.5 YPG. North Texas averages 194.5 YPG passing, giving the offense a nice balance. QB Gabbert (24 TDs and just 6 INTs) gives Miami an edge in the passing game but the RedHawks average just over 100 YPG less on the ground. Defensively, Miami owns a slight edge, allowing 23.8 PPG to North Texas allowing 27.5.

The site of this game is in Frisco, which is only about 35 miles from the North Texas campus in Denton. It's NOT a true road game for Miami but since Miami was 1-6 away from home this season, It's hard to back them as a small road favorite. What's more, Miami plays in a conference (MAC) that has been HUGE losers in recent bowl games. Entering the current bowl season, MAC teams were a combined 12-26 (.316) the last seven years (going back to 2014). Think the MAC is due for a turnaround? Four MAC schools have alraedy competed in the current bow season, losing all FOUR games (that's now a combined 12-30, .286), while allowing 46.5 PPG!

You tell me why Miami of the MAC is a small favorite over a Nortn Texas team, playing 35 miles away from home, on a five-game winning streak, as well as a six-game winning ATS streak?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Frisco Bowl play is on San Diego St at 7:30 ET.

UTSA (12-1) of Conference USA is in just its 10th season as an FBS program and is looking for its initial bowl victory. The school also has a chance to notch a rare 13th victory. The Roadrunners' opponent in the Frisco Bowl is San Diego State (11-2) of the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are looking to win 12 games for the first time in the school's Division I history (school has had 11-win seasons) in 1969, 2015 and 2016. 

Jeff Traylor's first head coaching came when he was given the UTSA job in 2020. He took over a program that was 3-9 and 4-8 in the previous two seasons and led the Roadrunners to a 7-4 regular season in 2020, finishing 7-5 after a bowl loss to ULL. This year's team opened 11-0 and was ranked 22nd in the CFP standings, before losing 45-23 at North Texas on Nov 27. The score was shocking and the UTSA defense allowed a whopping 340 yards on the ground. Note that on the season, UTSA has allowed just 112.3 YPG on the ground to rank 13th, while allowing 23.6 PPG (44th). The offense is averaging 37.8 PPG (12th) with excellent balance. The team's passing game averages 254.3 YPG and the rushing attack averages 189.0 YPG. QB Harris completes 66.9% for 2,906 yards with 25 TDs and 5 INTs plus has run for 595 yards (5.4 YPC with 6 TDs). RB McCormick is a 'stud,' rushing for 1,479 yards (eight games over over 100 yards) on 5.0 YPC with 15 TDs. The top-two WRs are Franklin (73 catches / 11 TDs) and Cephus (69 catches / 6 TDs).

San Diego State does not possess the offensive numbers of UTSA, averaging 26.5 PPG. The passing game ranks 113th (159.2 YPG) but the running game is good, at 175.3 YPG (55th). Greg Bell has run for 999 Yards (4.5 YPC / 8 TDs), plus five others chip in between 158 and 312 yards. The only receiver with more than 30 catches is WR Matthews (47 / 7 TDs). However, the SDSU defense is top-notch, holding opponents to 19.5 PPG (17th) on 319.6 YPG (14th).

Both schools played in their respective conference championship games, UTSA bouncing back from its embarrassing loss to North Texas by beating Western Ky 49-41. As for SD State, the Aztecs lost 46-13 to Utah State in the Mountain West title game. That type of beating was a stunner, as San Diego State allowed 16 points or less or on SEVEN occasions this season. It's that SDSU defense that has me on the Aztecs here plus the fact that while UTSA is playing in just its third bowl game, this marks San Diego State's 11th bowl berth since 2020. Oh, did I forget to mention! 'Stud' RB McCormick? He set school records for rushing yards and TDs (see above) on his way to earning C-USA Offensive Player of the Year honors but has decided to miss Tuesday's bowl game, 'saving himself' for the NFL draft.The Aztecs get that elusive 12th win right here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Opener (LA Bowl) is on Oregon St at 7:30 ET.

Anyone ever think there would be a Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl? Well there is and the 7-5 Oregon St Beavers of the Pac 12 will take on the 10-3 Utah St Aggies, the newly crowned champions of the MWC, after they impressively beat San Diego St 46-13 in the MWC championship game back on Dec 4.

Utah State was just 1-5 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas State last December and introduced a new 'vibe' at the school, while QB Luke Bonner, who followed Anderson from Arkansas State, had a record-setting season (more in a bit). As for Oregon St, Jonathan Smith got his first head coaching gig with his alma mater back in 2018. Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers at QB, taking over midway through his redshirt freshman season in 1998 and maintaining the job through his senior season in 2001. As a junior in 2000 under Dennis Erickson, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history. The Beavers finished 11–1, a school record for wins, won a share of their first conference title in 36 years, and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. Smith went 2-10 in his first season at Oregon St, followed by a 5-7 year and a 2-5 year in the pandemic-season of 2020. However, his Beavers went 7-5 in 2021 and are in the school's first bowl since 2013.

Bonner has completed 61.2% for 3,560 yards with 36 TDs and just 11 INTs. His 36 TD pases are a school reord and he's just SEVEN passing yards shy of the record of 3,567 set by Jordan Love in 2018. He's got plenty of receiving targets in Thompkins (96 / 16.1 YPC / 9 TDs), Bowling (52 / 15.1 / 9 TDs), Wright (45 / 16.8 YPC / 11 TDs) and McGriff (34 / 12.1 YPC / 6 TDs). The running game features a two-back duo of Tyler (764 / 4.5 / 6 TDs ) and Noa (575 / 4.4 / 4 TDs). The offense is averaging 33.2 PPG (31st) and the defense is allowing 25.3 PPG (58th). Oregon St owns a dominating rushing attack (219.5 YPG to rank 13th), led by Baylor, who has 1,259 yards (6.0 YPC) with 13 TDs. Fenwick and Lowe combine for 778 yards (5 TDs) plus Colletto may only have 160 yards rushing but he's scored a team-high eight rushing TDs. QB Nolan has had a 'nice 'year' (63.5% / 2,414 yards / 19-9 ratio) but it is dwarfed by Bonner's numbers. OSU is averaging 32.8 PPG (35th) and allowing 25.9 PPG.

Oregon State finished third in its division in the Pac-12 and sixth overall in the conference but is a seven-point favorite over Utah State. That doesn't sit well with some of the Aggies, who are the champions of the Mountain West Conference and chasing the third 11-win campaign in program history. Oregon's St's "signature win" this season was its 42-34 home win over Utah, which is the Pac 12 champs (currently ranked 11th) and headed to the Rose Bowl for a showdown with Ohio St. I noted earlier that the Beavers are in a bowl game for the first time since 2013 but let me add that 2013 was also the last time this program posted a winning record. Utah St may be the underdog in this game but somehow I get the sense that OSU sees itself as the underdog and that a win could be just what Smith needs to get this program "back on track." The scoreboard said Utah St 46-13 over SD State but the stat sheet said Utah St had a modest 383-315 yardage advantage, while SDSU actually won the TOP battle. I see a 'let down' spot here for Utah St and believe Oregon St is favored by a TD for a reason. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on Pittsburgh at 8:00 ET

The 10-2 Pittsburgh Panthers (AP No. 17) and the 10-2 Wake Forest Demon Deacons meet Saturday in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (no Clemson this year, after the Tigers had won the last SIX!). Pat Narduzzi was hired as Pitt's head coach on Dec 26, 2014. He led Pitt to bowl games in FOUR of his first five seasons, before last year's team went 6-5 but declined an invite due to COVID conditions. However, this year has been special, as Pitt has lost at least three games in every season since 1981 and has not ended a season in the AP top-25 since the 1982 season. That could all change this season, beginning with the ACC title game. Dave Clawson is in his eighth season at Winston-Salem and considering his record was 40-45 coming into the 2021 season, it's safe to say that this is the best team he's had. The Demon Deacons opened 8-0 (first time in school history) and with a dominating 41-10 win last Saturday at Boston College, clinched the Atlantic Division with a 7-1 record (Pitt was 7-1 in the Coastal).

Pitt QB Kenny Pickett was not among the preseason Heisman-favorites but he's sure played like a Heisman-winner in 2021. He's completing 67.7% for 4,066 yards with 40 TDs and just seven INTs (he broke Dan Marino's single-season record of 37 TDs). Two RBs top 500 yards and a third has over 450, as the Pitt running game (157.8 YPG) gives the Pitt offense balance. WR Addison (85 catches / 15.9 YPC / 17 TDs) is among the top WRs in the nation and Pittsburgh averages 42.8 PPG (4th) on 514.5 YPG (3rd). The defense allows 23.3 PPG (44th), which is plenty good enough for a team that scores almost TWICE what it allows.

Wake's offense is averaging 42.9 PPG (3rd) on 483.7 YPG (9th). QB Hartman can almost match Pickett's numbers, completing 60.3% for 3,711 yards with 34 TDs and 10 INTs (he also has 10 rushing TDs!). Much like Pitt's running game, Wake has three RBs that have run for between 429 and 557 yards, as the team averages 168.2 YG on the ground. Hartman has two, 1000-yard WRs in Roberson (62 catches / 16.5 YPC / 8 TDs) and Perry (56 catches / 19.9 YPC / 13 TDs). The real difference between the two teams is that Wake's defense allows 29.1 PPG, about a TD more per game that Pitt's D.

Bank of America Stadium tops is considered a neutral field but Winston-Salem is only about 80 miles from Charlotte, so Wake will likely have more fans. However, Pittsburgh has won all FIVE of its away games this season. After winning by seven at Tennessee, the Panthers won their next four road games by 31, 21, 25 and 17 points. Wake's defense is an issue and note that Pitt has gone 9-1 ATS in its 10 SU wins this season, the only blemish coming in a 48-38 win at UVA, where the Panthers were laying 13 points. Hartman's terrific but he is NOT as good as Pickett plus the Pitt defense owns a significant edge over Wake's "D." A win here would put a 'cherry on top' of Pitt's season, as the Panthers would head to a New Year's Six Bowl. That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma at 7:30 ET.

The 10-1 Oklahoma Sooners and the 10-1 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet Saturday from Boone Pickens Stadium in a series nicknamed "Bedlam." Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 ranked team and while the season was full of close calls the Sooners were 9-0 before losing 27-14 at Baylor on November 13. Oklahoma bounced back with a 28-21 win over Iowa St last Saturday and that means a win in Stillwater means the Sooners will advance to the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma St just missed making the AP's preseason poll (ranked first among "others receiving votes") but has put together a terrific season, going 10-1 (lone loss was 24-21 at Iowa St), beating three ranked opponents along the way. Cutting to the case, Oklahoma St has already clinched a spot in next Saturday's Big 12 championship game but if the Cowboys don't want to have to face the Sooners again next Saturday, they'll have to beat them here.

Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler was one of the Heisman favorites but lost his job to Caleb Williams, who gave the offense a big boost initially but he's struggled recently. Wiliams enters the game having completed 65.5% for 1,418 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs plus he'as added 372 rushing yards (7.0 YPC / 6 TDs). However, in the loss to Baylor and last week's win over Iowa St, he completed just 17 of 36 (47.2%) for 229 yards with one TD and 3 INTs (84 yards rushing and two TDs). RB Brooks is explosive and has gained 972 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs for a running game that averages 175.4 YPG (56th). WR Haselwood has the most catches (36) and TDs (6) but averages only 10.6 YPC. Mims has 29 catches and 4 TDs plus is the "big play guy" averaging 22.2 YPC. The Oklahoma defense allows 24.2 PPG, which works when the team's offense averages 38.9 PPG

QB Sanders has put up good but not great numbers for Okla St. He's completed 60.2% for 1,997 yards with 15 Tds and 6 INTs, while running for 417 yards with 5 TDs. RB Warren has topped 1,000 years (1,078) on 4.9 YPC and 10 TDs (Cowboys average 195.7 YPG to rank 33rd). WR Martin leads with 54 catches (6 Tds), while Presley has 35 catches (5 TDs). The defensive edge certainly goes to the Cowboys, who rank 3rd nationally in both points allowed (14.90 and yards allowed (261.3).

This is the 116th meeting between the two schools and Oklahoma leads 90–18–7. Most notably, Oklahoma has won six straight and 16 out of the last 18 in the series. This year’s game marks the first time since 1984 that both will be ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. It should be noted that while Oklahoma is just 4-6 ATS against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma St lost its first game this season ATS but takes a 9-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. I will also note that the Sooners are an underdog in a non-bowl game for the first time since the 2017 edition of "Bedlam" (62 straight games) when the Sooners (as a 2.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys 62-52 in Stillwater. See you all again next Saturday in a rematch of Okla/Okla St in the Big 12's 2021 championship game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on LSU at 7:00 ET.

The Aggies felt that they were snubbed last season, finishing FIFTH in the CFP rankings. A%M opened No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll but after a 3-0 start, A&M lost 20-10 to Arkansas (neutral site) and at home 26-22 to Miss St. However, A&M's 41-38 home victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9 gave the team's season new 'life.' A&M added three more victories after the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies allowed only 31 points in those three games. However, A&M came up short on Nov 13 in Oxford, losing 29-19 to Ole Miss. A 52-3 win over Prairie View A&M hardly eased the pain of the Ole Miss loss. The 8-3 Aggies now finish up a disappointing season at LSU on Saturday.

Talk about disappointing! LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FIVE of seven since, with their only two wins coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED' and ULM. LSU and head coach Ed Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. At 5-6, LSU's season would end with a loss to Texas A&M but a win would make the Tigers bowl-eligible and allow Orgeron to coach his final game as LSU's head coach in a bowl game.

QB Calzado is hardly a star for A%M, completing only 56.0% of his passes for 1,943 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs. His top-two receivers are WR Smith (41 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (36 catches / 4 TDs) but A&M does have a pair of RBs that allow the team to average 195.0 YPG (34th). Spiller has run for 984 yards (5.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Achane has 861 yards (7.3 YPC / 9 TDs). The A&M offense averages 29.8 PPG (60) but it's the defense that carries this team, allowing 14.9 PPG (2nd in the nation!).

Max Johnson is no Joe Burrow but don't put the blame on him for LSU's less-than satisfying season. He's completing 60.6% for 2,509 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs. WR Bech has 42 catches (just 3 TDs) and fellow WR Boutte has 38 but 9 TDs. A HUGE issue has been a running game that is averaging only 109.8 YPG (117th) on 3.2 YPC. That said, RB Davis-Price has 919 yards (4.8 YPC with 6 TDs) and is capable of a big game (see the Florida game when he ran for 287 yards). LSU is averaging 27.1 PPG and allowing 25.5. Remember that 2019 team? It averaged 48.4, while allowing 21.9 

I will go on record to say that A&M was overrated last season and the team's effort this season, save the Alabama upset, has been disappointing as well. That defense is terrific but note that the Aggies have hardly been 'road warriors' in 2021. They edged the Buffs 10-7 at Colorado early on, then lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss (see above for both recaps). Should we really be impressed by the team's 34-14 at Missouri? I've NEVER been an Ed Orgeron fan but he is a motivator. Note that despite the team's lack of any consistent scoring, LSU had Alabama on its heels in a 20-14 loss and pushed Arkansas into OT in a 16-13 loss. LSU has six losses but those defeats have come against ranked and quality teams. Oregron's "Win One for the Gipper" pregame 'sermon' just could motivate LSU to get the outright win and give "Mr Ed" a bowl game to prepare for. Taking the points here is an easy choice.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Boston College at 12:00 ET.

No. 18 Wake Forest will know the result of the North Carolina/NC State game (Friday night) when it takes the field at 12 noon ET in Chestnut Hill, Ma on Saturday, If NC State beats North Carolina, the Demon Deacons will need to beat BC in order to win the Atlantic Division and play Pittsburgh in the ACC title game next Saturday. Even if the Wolpack lose to the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons would still need to win, because losses by NC St and Wake would give Clemson the Atlantic Division title!

Dave Clawson is in his eight season at Winston-Salem and considering his record was 40-45 coming into the 2021 season, it's safe to say that this is the best team he's had. The Demon Deacons are 9-2 entering Saturday's contest but after opening 8-0 (first time in school history), have lost TWO of three (more in a bit). QB Hartman has been excellent, completing 60.1% for 3,475 yards with 31 TDs and 9 INTs. He's also run for 9 TDs! A trio of RBs have run for between 378 and 533 yards (17 TDs), allowing Wake to average 167.4 YPG on the ground (63rd). WRs Roberson (57 / 16.7 / 8 TDs) and Perry (52 / 19.8 / 11 TDs) are 'big time," helping Wake to average 43.1 PPG (4th) on 490.1 YPG (8th). However, the Wake defense is a liability, allowing 30.8 PPG (94th). Again, more in a bit.

The Boston College offense can't come close to matching Wake's firepower, although led by RB Garwu (980 yards / 5.1 YPC / 7 TDs), the Eagles also rush for 167.4 YPG (same as Wake). However, the QB play (mainly Grosel, who completes 57.8% for 1,216 yards with a 6-7 ratio) is dwarfed by Hartman's production and BC is lucky to be averaging 26.0 PPG. That said, the Eagles had won two straight since the surprise return of starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec (895 passing yards with 10 TDs and 6 INTs in five games) from a potential season-ending hand injury. The not-so-good news is that Jurkovec was held to 148 yards passing (10-of-24) with a touchdown and an interception while rushing for 59 yards and a TD in last week's 26-23 home loss to the Seminoles.

Why am I taking the home dog? "It's the DEFENSE, stupid!" Wake Forest has allowed 49.3 PPG on 523.7 YPG in losing two of Its last three games, while BC is allowing 20.5 PPG (25th) on 338.0 YPG (30th) on the season. What's more, BC is 10-31 ATS aa home dog going back to the 2017 season. Third-year head coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job and witha win (7th) would give BC a chance to in an eigth game (in a bowl) for the first time since 2009. I'm not sure whether it will be NC St or Clemson playing Pitt next Saturday but it WON'T be Wake. "Upset Alert" issued!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout (Apple Cup) is on Washington at 8:00 ET.

COVID pretty much wiped out almost all of the 2020 season for Washington St (1-3) and its in-state rival Washington (3-1). Both teams had new head coaches in 2020, Nick Rolovich at Washington St and Jimmy Lake at Washington. As the two rivals square off for the latest edition of the series called "The Apple Cup," both teams have a different head coach. Nick Rolovich lost his job for not following the state's COVID-19 mandate, while Jimmy Lake was let go because the Huskies, who were ranked No. 20 in the AP's preseason poll, were just 4-6 through 10 games.

Incredibly, after his Cougars beat lowly Arizona 48-14 last week, Washington State interim head coach Jake Dickert said, "There's still a lot to play for." He was alluding to the Apple Cup rivalry against Washington and the Cougars' impending bowl game. However, a day later, when Oregon lost, Dickert could add a potential Pac-12 North championship to the list of things his team could still accomplish. Say what? With a WSU victory in Seattle on Friday, and an Oregon State win over Oregon on Saturday, the Cougars would tie for first place atop the division with the Ducks and Beavers. Washington State would hold the tiebreaker with a 4-1 record in divisional play and would advance to the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas on Dec 3. As for Washington and Bob Gregory, in his eighth season on the Huskies' staff, the team that was No. 20 in the preseason, can only hope to play 'spoiler' as at 4-7 / 3-5), the Huskies have failed to qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2009.

Wash St QB DeLaura is completing 62.3% for 2,512 yards with 23 TDs and 9 INTs. The Cougars' running game is averaging just 123.2 YPG (105th), although RB Borhi (751 yards / 5.4 YPC / 10 TDs) is a solid player. WRs Harris (68 catches / 9 TDs) and Jackson (57 / 15.6 YPC / 7 TDs) are an impressive duo. The Wash St defense allows 25.3 PPG, ranking 58th. Washington QB Morris completes 60.6% for 2,456 yards but has a poor 14-12 TD-to-INT ratio. The running game is pretty much non-existent, averaging 108.8 YPG (118th). The Huskies are scoring only 22.3 PPG (106th), leaving it to the team's defense to keep them competitive (22.1 PPG allowed ranks 28th).

Washington St has EVERYTHING to play for in this game, while Washington can only play spoiler. Does recent series count for anything? If it does, the Cougars are in trouble. Washington has dominated the Apple Cup, going 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and has won the last SEVEN overall (ALL by double digits), longest series winning streak since UW’s 8-game run from 1974-’81). Bottom line, this is basically Washington's de-facto bowl game with no postseason in its future.

Here's why I believe Washington can win. In Its first game under Bob Gregory, the Huskies outgained the Buffs of Colorado by a 426-183 margin (22-9 advanatge in FDs), while holding them to just 2 of 13 on third-down opportunities. The Huskies were 'done in' by a minus-4 TO deficit.

Washington St will get a chance to go bowing' in December, while Washington gets its 'bowl game' and a W-I-N on Friday at home.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Game of the Week (ACC) is on NC State at 7:00 ET.

North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. However, as the Tar Heels roll into Raleigh to take on rival North Carolina St, Mack Brown's team is an UNDERWHELMING 6-5. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren's Wolfpack come in 8-3 (5-2 ACC) and can still take the ACC Atlantic Division with a win and a Wake Forest loss on Saturday at Boston College.

Sam Howell has had an excellent season but NOT a Heisman-like season, completing 63.5% for 2,704 yards with 22 TDs and 8 INTs, while rushing for 717 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs). He sat out last week (upper body injury) and his status for this game has not been determined. Howell's running plus that of RB Chandler (1,004 yards (6.0 YPC / 13 TDs) gives the Tar Heels an excellent rushing attack (212.7 YPFG to rank 20th). WR Downs is having a terrific season with 90 catches (13.3 YPC / 8 TDs) plus Green may only have 26 receptions, but he averages 20.3 YPC with 5 TDs. North Carolina can score (37.0 PPG ranks 14th) but the defense is 'ugly,' allowing 31.4 PPG (98th).

QB Devin Leary did not come into the season with the hype of Howell but is having a terrific season, completing 65.8% for 3,186 yards with 31 TDs and only 5 INTs. RBs Knight (684 yards / 5.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Person (573 yards / 4.6 YPC / 5 TD)  are solid but the team is only averaging 127.8 YPG on the ground (98th). Emezie leads with 55 catches (4 TDs), while Thomas (47 / 7 TDs) and Carter (31 / 6 TDs) give Leary multiple options. The offense is not far behind North Carolina's (33.0 PPG ranks 24th) but the HUGE edge comes on the defensive side of the ball, where the Wolfpack are holding opponents to 18.7 PPG (13th), almost two TDs less than the Tar Heels' D.

Here's the bottom line, Howell's status is up in the air and the Tar Heels would LOVE to hand their rival a loss, knocking them out a chance to win the Atlantic Division. However, North Carolina is 0-4 away from Chapel Hill, losing 17-10 at Va Tech, 45-22 to Ga Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 44-34 at Notre Dame and 30-23 at Pitt. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren just could have a 'magical' season in 2021. A win here gives NC St nine wins and could lead to a championship game appearance and a bowl berth. He's been at NC St since 2013 and has led NC St to bowls in seven of the last eight years but his teams have never won more than nine games. NC St can't control what Wake Forest does but the Wolfpack can win (and cover) here against a team that hasn't wom awy from home in four previosu tries, while allowing 39.3 PPG in its last three away games

Good luck...Larry

My 10* CFB Thursday Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin will take Ole Miss (9-2, 5-2 SEC) to Starkville to play Mississippi State (7-4, 4-3) in the Egg Bowl, the state's annual Thanksgiving matchup between these two in-state rivals. Two of the nation's best QBs will be the featured attraction. Ole Miss' Matt Corral is completing 67.5% for 3,100 yards with 19 TDs and just three INTs. He's also run for 552 yards and 10 more scores. His counterpart is Mississippi State's sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 76% for 4,113 yards with 34 TDs and eight INTs. NO QB in the nation has put up the numbers Rogers has in his last nine games, as he has clipsed 300 passing yards in each contest, with more than 400 yards in four of them!

The edge for Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball is a running game that averages 231.1 YPG (8th), as RBs Ealy (643 yards / 6.1 YPC / 5 TDs) and Connor (561 yards / 5.2 YPC / 11 TDs) join Corral for quite a balanced attack that is averaging 517.4 YPG overall (5th). WR Drummond is the best receiver (53 / 8 TDs) but four other WRs average between 15.6 and 22.1 YPC! In fact, Ole Miss is the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! Th e defense is allowing 25.4 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 36.4 points.

Obviously, Rogers has thrived in Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense but with the Bulldogs' running game averaging a putrid 62.1 YPG (129th) on 3.0 YPC, there is never any room for error with Miss St's passing game. WR Polk leads the way with 88 catches (9 TDs) and much like the Rebels' receiver corps, the Bulldogs have plenty of depth and talent. Much like Ole Miss, the Mississippi St defense allows 24.7 PPG but it doesn't own the kind of balance the Ole Miss offense has.

Ole Miss has gotten healthier as the season has progressed and was clearly looking ahead last Saturday in only beating Vandy 31-17 but a win here would be VERY special. The Ole Miss program owns seven career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. A win here gets Ole Miss to 10-2 and could possibly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl berth. "Hotty Toddy!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Utah at 7:30 ET.

The 9-1 Oregon Ducks retained their No. 3 spot in the CFP rankings on Tuesday and will take a five-game winning streak into their Saturday night game in Salt Lake City against the 7-3 Utah Utes (Utah moved into the CFP rankings at No. 23). Oregon is 6-1 in league play and leads the Pac-12 North by two games, while Utah's 6-1 league mark gives them just a one-game edge over Arizona St in the Pac-12 South. Oregon can clinch the North title and a spot in the conference championship game with a win Saturday or an Oregon State loss. Utah can clinch the South with a win over the Ducks or an Arizona State loss. This could very well be a preview of the Pac 12 championship game.

BC transfer Anthony Brown is Oregon's QB, completing 64.6% for 2,020 yards with 12 TDs and 4 INTs, while adding 551 rushing yards and 8 TDs. RB Dye leads the team in rushing with 908 yards (6.0YPC / 12 TDs), as Oregon ranks 12th in the nation by averaging 226.5 YPG on the ground. Dye is also Oregon's leading receiver (32), as WRs Johnson (25 catches / 1 TD) and Williams (23 catches / 2 TDs) do not 'scare' anyone's secondary. The offense averages 35.3 PPG (22nd) and the defense holds opponents to a respectable 22.8 PPG (43rd).

Baylor transfer Charlie Brewers was supposed to be Utah's answer at QB but he flopped badly. However, Cameron Rising took over in Utah's 33-31 OT loss at SD St on Sep 18, throwing for 3 TDs in a comeback effort that fell just short. He's led Utah to six wins and just one loss since, and is completing 63.5% for 1,752 yards with 14 TDs and just two INTs on the season. His top receivers are WR Kuithe (36 / 5 TDs) and TE Kincaid (24 catches / 5 TDs). Three RBs have gained more that 425 yards, led by Thomas (742 / 6.1 YPC / 14 TDs), as Utah basically matches Oregon on the ground averaging 214.7 YPG (19th). The Utes average 35.7 PPG (19th) and allow 23.8 PPG (53rd).

Yes, Oregon won 35-28 in Columbus on Sep 11 but its other three road games have been a 31-24 OT loss at Standford 3-7 record), a 34-31 'squeaker' at UCLA and a so-so 26-16 win at Washington, the Pac-12's biggest flop in 2021. Meanwhile, the Utes are 4-0 SU at home, giving them an 18-1 record going back to the start of the 2018 season!

A Utah win almost guarantees a rematch in the Pac-12 championship game. See you then!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Mia-Fl at 7:30 ET.

A pair of 5-5 ACC teams square off at Hard rock Stadium in Miami on Saturday night, as the Va Tech Hokies meet the Miami Hurricanes. Both are also 3-3 in the ACC's Coastal Division and are no threat to reach the ACC title game but both are just ONE win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Virginia Tech hosted the Duke Blue Devils last Saturday and came away with a 48-17 win. QB Braxton Burmeister threw for 215 yards, three TDs, one interception, plus added 71 rushing yards on the ground. RBs Raheem Blackshear and Keshawn King combined for 207 yards and two TD on just 21 carries. Miami visited the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday and left with a heart breaking 31-28 defeat. The Hurricanes overcame a 17-0 deficit to take a 28-20 lead early in the fourth quarter but FSU scored 10 points in the final five minutes to get the win. QB Tyler Van Dyke went 25/47 threw for 316 yards, four touchdowns (to four different players!) and two interceptions.

Va Tech QB Hooker really made a 'splash' last season once he won the job, passing for 1,339 yards (9 TDs / 5 INTs) and adding 620 rushing yards with 9 TDs. However, he transferred to Tennessee and has completed 68.6% for 2,138 yards with 22 TDs and just three INTs, while adding 464 rushing yards and four more scores. Meanwhile, Va Tech's Burmeister is completing just 54.5% for 1,710 yards with 12 TDs and 4 INTs. He can run some, adding 358 yards and two TDs for a running game that averages 174.0 yPG (57th). RB Blackshear leads the way with 542 yards on 5.4 YPC with 5 TDs. WRs Robinson (39 / 11.4 YPc / 4 TDs) and Turner (35 catches / 18.0 YPC / 2 TDs) are the only two receivers with more than 20 receptions. Va Tech typically plays good defense and this year's team is allowing 21.3 PPG, 32nd in the nation.

Miami was thrilled when D'Eriq King was able to return for another year but he didn't stay healthy long. The good news is that freshman QB Van Dyke has been excellent, completing 61.2% with 19 TDs and just 6 INTs. He has a nice trio of receivers in Rambo (64 / 14.9 / 5 TDs), Harley (41 / 4 TDs) and Smith (32 / 3 TDs. RBs Knighton (493 / 4.2 YPC / 5 Tds) and Harris (409 / 5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) can be effective but Miami is averaging a modest 133.8 YPG on the ground (95th). Miami's D is allowing 30.5 PPG (99th) but the offense scores 32.4 PPG, compared to Va Tech's 24.3.

Justin Fuent used a two-year 19-6 run at Memphis to snare the Va Tech jog but after 10-4 and 9-4 seasons, his teams were 6-7, 8-5 and 5-6, before this year's 5-5 record. Manny Diaz went just 6-6 in first first season with Miami (2019), before losing 14-0 to La Tech in a bowl game. The team lost its bowl game again last season (37-34 to Okla St), but did finish 8-3. The 'Canes were ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll, so a 5-5 season is WELL below expectations.

I noted above that the winner of this contest gets that "all-important" 6th win but each has one more game after this. Virginia Tech is at Virginia, while Miami is at Duke. Miami should have little trouble getting by Duke but the Hokies will have their hands full with UVA. That does give the "urgency edge" to Va Tech but I believe Miami will be primed to win, after that heart-breaking loss at hated-FSU. A win there and Miami would be riding a four-game winning streak with a chance to finish on a six-game winning run, before going 'bowling.'

The saying goes, "defense wins championships" but these are NOT championship teams. This Miami offense can be spectacular, as long as it takes care of the ball. Unfortunately, that was not the case for the Hurricanes last weekend, who had their worst offensive performance since their season opener against Alabama. I am firmly in the 'camp' that believes the Hurricanes bounce back at home this weekend. Look for the home field to be a big advantage for the Hurricanes (Va Tech is on a 2- ATS run on the road), as they punch their ticket to bowl eligibility with a convincing win of the "rocking chair" variety.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Battle 4 LA' is on USC at 4:00 ET.

The UCLA Bruins and the USC Trojans meet in Pac-12 action from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday with the winner earning the "Victory Bell." The Bruins are 6-4 (4-3 in the Pac 12) while the Trojans are 4-5 (3-4). The Bruins are coming off a 44-20 win over Colorado in their last game, after back-to-back losses to Oregon and Utah, which took them out of any Pac 12 championship game hopes. USC opened the season as the AP's No. 15 team but opened just 3-2 and then saw its season crumble, with just ONE win (over then winless Arizona) in its next four games. Last week's game at Cal was postponed and will be made up Dec 4.

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has completed 60.3% for 1,896 yards, 14 touchdowns ad 4 INTs, while rushing for 463 yards with 7 TDs. His top receivers are WR Philips (47 / 13.3 YPC / 6 TDs) and TE Dulcich (34 / 16.6 / 4 TDs. RBs Charbonnet (864 yards / 5.7 YPC / 11 TDs) and Brown (616 / 6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) help give UCLA nice offensive balance, averaging 209.4 YPG on the ground (21st). The defense is allowing 27.4 PPG (76th).

There was a time when USC was dubbed "Running Back U" but those days are long gone. RB Ingram (815 yards / 5.9 YPC / 5 TDs) is a quality back but the team is averaging only 136.8 YPG on the ground (92nd). Big things were expected of QB Kedon Slovis but while he's completing 65.0% and has thrown for 2,153 yards, he has only 11 TD passes with eight INTs. However, he does have one of the nation's best WRs in London, who has 88 catches (12.3 YPC / 7 TDs). The USC defense is about the same as UCLA's, allowing 28.9 YPG (85th).

UCLA's Chip Kelly left his 'genius' up in Eugene, where he went 46-7, including 33-3 in the Pac 12. He was a 'disaster' in the NFL and in his return to the college ranks with UCLA, he was 10-21 in his first two seasons before going 6-4 in 2021. He's lost his two meetings with crosstown rival USC and that fits right into the current series history between these two teams. USC has won FIVE of the last six meetings overall and is 10-1 SU in the last 11 played here at the LA Coliseum. A win here and USC will get two chances (home to BYU and at Cal), to become bowl-eligible. As the USC chant goes, "Fight On!" I'm taking the points but expect an outright win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Texas at 12: 00 ET.

Texas began the season ranked 21st in the AP's preseason and opened with a 38-18 win over ULL (note: ULL has NOT lost since and at 9-1, is ranked 22nd in the current AP poll). The Longhorns lost 40-21 to Arkansas in their second game but then won three in a row, to enter their HUGE rivalry game with Oklahoma at 4-1 (still No. 21 in the AP poll). However, after taking a 28-7 lead in the first quarter, the Longhorns saw the game (and maybe their season?) crumble. Oklahoma would outscore Texas 25-3 in the 4th quarter for a 55-48 win and Texas hasn't won since. Texas hit 'rock bottom' with its 57-56 (OT) loss at home to Kansas, a team that entered this season 5-84 in Big 12 play the previous decade, as well as with a 2-52 road record in all games.

4-6 Texas now 'limps' into Morgantown to take on the 4-6 West Va Mountaineers. West Va head coach Neal Brown is in his third season with the Mountaineers and entered the current season 11-11. West Va comes into this game 4-6, off back-to-back losses (by the combined score of 58-20) and like Texas, would need to win its last two games to become bowl-eligible. However, it's hard to imagine either of these teams thinking too much about a bowl bid, as just a plain "W" would do.

No one can argue Texas doesn't have the offense to be among the top-25 teams, as QB Thompson is completing 64.3% for 1,914 yards with 23 TDs and just 7 INTs. RB Robinson has 1,227 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC and 11 TDs, as Texas is averaging 37.8 PPG (13th). However, the defense is a MESS, allowing 32.5 PPG (107th) on 437.0 YPG (105th).

West Va QB Doege is completing 65.5% for 2,448 yards but has a much more modest TD/INT ratio at 13-10. RB Brown gained over 1,000 yards last year in 10 games but through 10 games this season has just 751 (but 11 TDs). West Va's offense (25.7) averages about a TD less per game than Texas does but its defense (24.1) allows about a TD less per game.

The visitor in this series had won four in a row and West Va almost made it five in row last year, falling just 17-13 at Austin. In the end, this contest is not about the numbers. Texas (on paper) is the MUCH better team and is getting points. The 'key' will be if the Longhorns can 'Cowboy Up,' as they like to say in Texas. The Longhorns 'booted' head coach Tom Herman (32-18 in four years at Texas, leading the Longhorns to four bowl wins), for Steve Sarkisian. One wonders how Sarkissian could survive by losing SEVEN in a row to end the year (Texas is home to Kansa St in  its final game)?

How can the Texas defense possibly play worse and if Sarkisian can't 'rally his troops' to a win here, he deserves to be 'voted out of office! Take the FG or so with Texas. Hook 'em Horns!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Game of the Year is on Air Force at 9:00 ET.

The Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack meet Friday night at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nv. Both schools are 7-3, including 4-2 in MWC play. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons will be back 'bowling' in 2021. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell, who arrived in Reno in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Air Force has thrown just 98 passes in its nine games but as will come as no surprise, leads the nation in rushing at 311.1 YPG , averaging 4.9 YPC with 31 TDs. RB Roberts has 1,064 yards (10 TDs) and QB Daniels has 646 yards (9 TDs). Two other players of note are Davis (360 yards on 7.7 YPC) and Hughes (250 yards on 7.8 YPC). Air Force's defense is often overlooked but shouldn't be, as the Falcons are allowing only 17.6 PPG (11th) on 288.3 YPC (5th).

While Air Force 'lives' by the run, Nevada 'lives' by the pass. QB Strong completed 70.1% with 27 TDs and 4 INTs last season and comes into this game completing 70.5% for 3,547 yards with 29 TDs and 7 INTs. He's put those kinds of numbers despite a running game that averages only 64.2 YPG (129th) on 2.6 YPC. Three receivers have 50-plus catches, led by WRs Doubs (64 / 7 TDs) and Stovall (51 / 1 TD) plus TE Turner has 55 with 8 TDs. Nevada is averaging 34.9 PPG. The Nevada D is not bad, allowing 24.2 PPG (55th).

Nevada is 5-0 at home this season and will take a 9-game home winning streak into this contest but one MUST take into consideration that Air Force is 4-0 on the road, while going 4-0 ATS as well. Breaking down the matchup we find that the Air Force defense allows just 184.1 YPG through the air, ranking 14th in the nation. On the other hand, I believe Air Force will be able to run effectively against Nevada and that also serves the purpose of keeping Strong on the sidelines. Take the 'Flyboys!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late Show' play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET.

The Utah State Aggies were blown out in their first three games last season and head coach Gary Anderson was let go. The Aggies played just six games in 2020, ending 1-5. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas St and he brought QB Logan Bonner with him. The result? Utah St is 7-2 overall, including 4-1 in the MWC's Mountain Division. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. However, the Spartans are just 5-5, including 3-3 in the West Division. The two schools meet Saturday night in San Jose.

Bonner has been very good, completing 61.3% for 2,486 yards with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. Bonner has an excellent group of receivers, led by Thompkins (72 catches / 18.3 YPC / 8 TDs). He's joined by a trio that combines for 87 catches and 14 TDs. RBs Tyler (516 yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and Noa (431 yards / 4.2 YPC / 3 TDs) give the Aggies some nice balance on offense, as the Aggies are averaging 31.8 PPG (43rd) on 474.9 YPG (12th). The defense is an issue, as Utah St allows 27.2 PPG (79th) on 425.3 YPG (101st).

QB Nick Starkel is off a very good season (64.2% with 17 TDs and 7 INTs) but he's been inconsistent and has been replaced by Nick Nash at times. Starkel is completing a poor 50.8% for 1,207 yards with 9 TDs and 6 INTs, while Nick Nash has thrown for 971 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs plus run 359 yards. RB Tyler Nevens leads the Spartans with 699 rushing yards (4.8 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Deese leads with 42 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs). San Jose St is averaging just 21.4 PPG (down from 28.6 PPG) but its defense is holding opponents to 23.0 PPG (50th) on 355.9 YPG (46th).

Recent series history all favors Utah St (San Jose St had won 11 of 12 but Utah St has won the last EIGHT meetings) but oddsmakers have made the 5-5 Spartans more than a three-point favorite over the 7-2 Aggies. Wonder why? Utah St is a money-burning 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Jose St enters on a 4-game ATS winning streak and chalk this up as a game many will call an upset (a 5-5 team beating a 7-2 team), unaware that the Spartans are the favorite in the game. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Arkansas at 7:30 ET.

Sam Pittman did an excellent job as Georgia's OL coach and got his first head coaching gig at Arkansas in 2020. Not much went right, as the Razorbacks finished 3-7. More than a few publications had Arkansa pegged as the 7th team in the SEC's 7-team SEC West but Arkansas opened 4-0 SU and ATS, with wins over then-No. 15 Texas (40-21) and then-No. 7 Texas A&M (20-10). However, the Razorbacks are just 2-3 (1-4 ATS) over their last five games. At 6-3 (25th in the latest CFP rankings), Arkansa travels to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers, who check in at 4-5 (2-4 in the SEC). Arkansas is off a hard-fought 31-28 victory against Mississippi State, while LSU scared the 'you know what' out of Alabama in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, falling just 20-14 as a 4-TD underdog (FYI...LSU was my free play!).

Arkansas QB Jefferson has had an excellent season, completing 64.2% for 1,848 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 INTs. He is also one of FOUR Arkansas players with more than 400 yards rushing, as the team's running game ranks 4th in the nation averaging 244.3 YPG  on 5.3 YPC. Burks (48 catches / 16.6 YPC / 8 TDs) is the lone receiver of note but the Arkansas offense is good enough to average 32.6 PPG (35th) on 457.8 YPG (21st). Defensively, Arkansas is credible, allowing 24.0 PPG (57th) on 351.2 YPG (41st).

LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FOUR of five since, with their lone win coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED!' The Gators opened 3-1 (lone blemish was a two-point loss to Alabama) but has now lost FOUR of five (only win over 2-7 Vandy, which is 0-5 in the SEC). Max Johnson has done a credible job at QB, completing 60.1% for 2,169 yards with 22 TDs and 6 INTs. A HUGE issue is a running game that is averaging only 112.0 YPG (116th) on 3.4 YPC. It's actually worse than that, as LSU ran for 321 yards vs Florida. Take that one game away and LSU is averaging 85.6 YPG. The LSU defense is allowing 27.8 PPG (79th).

LSU and head coach Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. The Tigers need two wins in their last three games to become bowl eligible and extend Orgeron's tenure by one game. Coming off the team's 'leave it all on the field' effort at Alabama, I find it hard to believe that LSU doesn't suffer a letdown in this one. Orgeron said Max Johnson remains the team's starting QB but against Arkansas he'll give freshman Garrett Nussmeier "significant snaps at the beginning of the game, and we'll see how it goes." How is that a good thing?

The Tigers allowed just SIX yards rushing to the Tide last week (how is that possible?), after allowing 330 to Kentucky and 265 to Ole Miss. Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is taking it one game at a time: "I believe LSU played as physical and as hard as they had all year," Pittman assessed earlier in the week. "Coach Orgeron certainly has the attention of the team still and they're very, very talented. From what I saw on film, compared to the other weeks, I thought they played extremely well and physically on Saturday against Alabama."Arkansas plays with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 27-24 in the last meeting on November 21st of last year. Yes, Alabama is up next but how could Arkansa be looking ahead? The LAST thing this team needs is a loss heading into that contest. Arkansas is the better team and I expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover.

Good Luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Washington at 7:00 ET.

Washington was ranked 20th in the AP's preseason poll and fellow Pac-12 member Arizona St checked in at No. 25. However, as these two conference rivals at Seattle on the second Saturday of November, both teams have been disappointments. Arizona St has had the better season, as its 31-16 victory against visiting USC last Saturday got them to 6-3, making them bowl-eligible. Arizona State will face an interim coach when the Sun Devils travel to Washington for a Pacific-12 Conference matchup Saturday. Washington's 26-16 home loss to No. 4 Oregon last Saturday dropped the Huskies to 4-5 (3-3 in the Pac-12). To add insult to injury, Washington head coach Jimmy Lake was suspended for a week by athletic director Jen Cohen for a sideline altercation with one of his players. That means defensive coordinator Bob Gregory will act as head coach for the game.

That sets up the following scenario, Arizona State will face an interim coach for the THIRD straight game the Sun Devils have previously gone up against Washington State's Jake Dickert and USC's Donte Williams. QB Daniels can be an exciting performer but also a frustrating one. He's completing 67.3% for 1,880 yards and has run for 482 yards on 5.7 YPC with 4 TDs but he's thrown just seven TDs in nine games (also seven INTs). The Sun Devils snapped a two-game losing streak with their win over USC, as RB Rachaad White rushed for 202 yards and THREE TDs. However, he had run for just 483 yard in the team's eight games (note: he does have 12 TDs on the season). ASU has a nice run/pass balance and is averaging 30.3 PPG (54th). The Sun Devils have played well defensively, allowing just 20.2 PPG (26th) on 331.0 YPG (also 26th)

Washington QB Morris is completing 60.4% for 1,920 yards with an 11-9 TD/INT ratio. It doesn't help that the team's running game is nearly non-existent (118.2 YPG ranks 106th on 3.5 YPC). There is depth at the receiving position, with five players hauling 21 or more passes, led by McMillan (31 / 13.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Bynum (26 / 16.8 YPC / 4 TDs). The offense averages only 22.0 PPG (110th) but the Washington D keeps them in ball games, allowing 19.7 PPG (23rd) on 336.8 YPG (31st).

Washington has lost 11 of the last 13 games with the Sun Devils but those two wins have come in the last THREE meetings (both wins by the Huskies have been here in Seattle). ASU got its sixth win last Saturday but look for Washington to gets it fifth win in this one, giving the Huskies two tries (at Colorado and home to Washington St) to become bowl-eligible. Better yet, we are getting almost a full TD.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic in on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET.

Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2) has its sights set on the SEC's West Division title, a goal that requires not only winning its next two conference games but also requires Alabama (8-1, 5-1) to lose to either Arkansas or Auburn. A&M can't control what Alabama does, so all the team can do is 'take care of business' and then wait and see. Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) has already lost to Alabama, so the Rebels' hopes of a SEC West title are not quite realistic. However, the winner of this game does put itself in prime position for a New Year's Six Bowl (A&M is 11th in the latest CFP rankings and Ole Miss is 15th).

The Aggies are riding some strong momentum, after their 41-38 victory on Oct 9 over No.1-ranked  Alabama gave their season new 'life' (A&M entered that contest on a two-game slide). A&M has added three more victories since the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies have allowed only 31 points the last three games. The team now ranks 2nd in the nation in allowing 14.7 PPG on 318.3 YPG (15th). Offensively, OB Calzado is no star, completing just 54.9% for 1,556 yards with 12 TDs and 7 INTs. His two best options are WR Smith (35 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (30 catches / 13.5 YPC / 4 TDs). Calzado does get help from a running game that is averaging 191.7 YPG (40th), led by the duo of Spiller (873 yards on 6.1 YPC  with 5 TDs) and Achane (706 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs). The Aggies are averaging 38.6 PPG, which works well when one's defense is allowing about HALF that many points!

The "ever-lovable" Lane Kiffin has himself quite a team in Oxford this season, one which has a chance to match the 2015 team that went 10-3 after a 48-20 win over Oklahoma St in the Sugar Bowl. QB Matt Corral has completed 66.9% for 2,5627 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs. Corral also chips in a team-leading 528 yards on 4.6 YPC and 10 TDs on the ground while three RBs add between 436 and 471 yards, giving Ole Miss the 5th-best running game in the nation at 237.9 YPG. Corall's one standout receiver is WR Drummond (40 catches / 16.5 YPC / 6 TDs). That said, Ole Miss is the ONLYm in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season. Defense IS a problem though, with Ole Miss allowing 27.0 PPG (72nd) on 432.7 YPG (104th).

Ole Miss has lost three straight to A&M but in the last meeting (2019 also in Oxford), the Rebels outgained the Aggies 405-337, with the difference being an A&M 62-yard TD on a fumble recovery. That 2019 Ole Miss team couldn't 'hold a candle' to the 2021 edition and as much as I don't much care for Kiffin, I think Ole Miss has an offense that will be able to 'crack' the A&M defense. Don't forget, Alabama put up 522 yards at College Station and this one is in Oxford (note: Ole Miss averages 524.1 PPG). Take the small home dog but we won't need the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET.

Syracuse head coach Dino Babers made a big 'splash' in his third season at Syracuse, going 10-3 with a bowl win in 2018. However, the 'Cuse fell to 5-7 in 2019 and then went 1-10 in 2020. A bowl berth may be a 'must' in 2021 for Babers to save his job. Syracuse comes in off a bye at 5-4 but more importantly the team is 8-1 ATS, including seven straight covers. Syracuse travels to Louisville this Saturday, where head coach Scott Satterfield's Cardinals are 4-5, after going 8-5 in his first season (2019) and 4-7 in his second season (2020). Satterfield became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Appalachian St St to 40 wins from 2015 through 2018. The Mountaineers won bowls under Satterfield in 2015, 2016 and 2017, before leaving to take the Louisville job before the school's 2018 bowl appearance.

RB Sean Tucker is coming off his most productive game of the season (he ran for 207 yards in Syracuse's 21-6 home win over Boston College two weeks ag0) and will take the field looking for an eighth straight 100-yard game. He has 1,267 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) and leads a running game that's averaging 248.8 YPG (3rd) on 5.6 YPC. Dual-threat QB Schrader adds 670 yards rushing (5.6 YPC / 11 TDs), while throwing for 1,119 yards with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. However, he's NOT an accurate passer, completing just 51.8%. Syracuse averages 29.4 PPG (56th) and its defense is holding opponents to 22.6 PPG (44th).

Lining up opposite Schrader is Louisville QB Cunningham, who is the team's leading rusher (690 yards / 5.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and is a much better passer (60.5% / 2,077 yards / 9 TDs & 5 INTs). Joined by RB Mitchell (531 yards / 4.4 YPC / 4 TDs), Louisville also has an impressive running game, averaging 205.6 YPG (24th) on 5.0 YPC. Louisville scores in the neighborhood of Syracuse (28.8 PPG ranks 60th) but its defense is allowing 27.4 PPG, five points higher and also is allowing about 1000 YPG more.

Louisville needs two more wins (in its last three games) to become bowl eligible. Winning here is pretty much a "must-win." Series history is ALL Louisville, as the Cardinals are 9-2 SU and have covered EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with the Orange. The home team has won four straight in the series, with the favorite covering the last seven (more trends in Louisville's favor). Louisville is just 3-2 at home but the two losses have come 34-33 to UVA, which scored a TD with 22 seconds left in the game and to Clemson, which Louisville led 24-17 into the 4th quarter, before the Tigers scored the game's final 13 points. Note that the Cards reached the Clemson two-yard-line but were SOD on that final drive. 

Lay the short price, as Syracuse's ATS winning streak ends at seven.

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Pittsburgh at 7:30 ET.

North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (coming off a 6-5 season) entered the current season unranked and was not even among the 19 schools that were in the groups known as "others receiving votes." The two teams take the field Thursday night at Heinz Field for a key game in the ACC's Coastal Division. Pittsburgh is 7-2 overall (21st in the CFP rankings) and at 4-1 in ACC play, controls its destiny in the division, while North Carolina (5-4, 3-3) has had a HUGELY disappointing season but can stay in contention with a victory.

The Tar Heels are fresh off a 58-55 comeback victory against then-No. 9 Wake Forest (Demon Deacons were 8-0), a contest in which they put up 546 yards of total offense. Howell won't win the Heisman but he leads a VERY balanced offense (273.6 YPG passing / 219.4 YPG rushing) by completing 63.1% for 2,408 yards (20 TDs / 7 INTs), while rushing for 699 yards (5.2 YPC / 8 TDs). RB Chandler has 884 rushing yards (6.2 YPC / 13 TDs) and WR Downs has 74 catches (1,104 yards / 8 TDs). North Carolina is averaging 38.9 PPG (12th) but the defense is a mess, It allowed 615 yards against Wake and is allowing 33.4 PPG on the season (111th) on 421.4 YPG (95th).

Howell had more fanfare coming into the season but Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is having a Heisman-like season. He's completing 68.7% for 3,171 yards with 29 TDs and 3 INTs. He's run for 234 yards (4 TDs) and three RBs chip in between 315-to-498 yards for a running game averaging 167.2 YPG. WR Addison (54 catches / 18.3 YPC / 11 TDs) is among the top WRs in the nation and Pittsburgh is tops in the nation in scoring (45.0 PPG) and second in total offense (543.3 YPG). Defensively, Pitt is solid, allowing 22.7 PPG (45th) on 345.0 YPG (37th).

North Carolina has been consistently inconsistent from week to next this season and I expect that trend to continue here against Pittsburgh, which is 'smelling' the possibility of a memorable season. In contrast to NC's  inconsistency, The Panthers have gone above the 50-point mark in four games this season, the most for any Pittsburgh team since 1905. What's more, 7-2 Pittsburgh is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in its seven wins in 2021. Meanwhile, the only consistency North Carolina has shown since the start of the 2020 season is this. The Tar Heels take the field Thursday 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a straight-up win. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC Attack-Part 2 is on Ball St at 7:00 ET.

The Ball State Cardinals will travel to Huskie Stadium in DeKalb to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies on Wednesday night. The Cardinals improved to 5-4 on the season with a 31-25 win over the Akron Zips (11/2) and are now 3-2 in the MAC-West. The Northern Illinois Huskies had their 5-game winning streak snapped in a 52-47 loss at Kent St last Wednesday, dropping to 6-3 overall and 4-1 in the MAC-West.

The Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. They lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It didn't start that way, as Ball St opened 1-3 but the Cardinals have won FOUR of their last five. QB Plitt has completed 63.2% for 1,776 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. He has a trio of solid WRs in Hall (56 / 5 TDs), (Jackson 39 / 2 TDs) and Tyler (32 / 5 TDs) plus RB Steele does a nice job (582 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs). Ball St is averaging a modest 25.2 PPG (88th), while allowing 27.6 PPG (75th). More in a bit.

Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi is completing a modest 57.8% and has thrown for 1,853 yards with 12 TDs and six INTs. However, NIU's offense is led by a rushing attack that has averaged 221.4 YPG (10th) and features five players with more than 200 rushing yards (Lombard is in that group with 346 yards and has five TDs). RBs Ducker (579 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Waylee (574 yards / 5.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are the top producers. NIU averages 31.7 PPG (42) with a nice run/pass balance but the team's defense is allowing 33.8 PPG (112th) on 449.3 YPG (114th).

NIU has the better record (6-3 to 5-4) and leads 4-1 to 3-2 in the division, YET Ball St is the small road favorite. That's NO oddsmaker's error, as Balls St is 3-0 SU on the road in MAC play, averaging 38.0 PPG and gets to go up against a Huskie defense that just allowed 52 points on 682 yards the last time out. Yes, NIU had won 10 straight in this series but Ball St has won the last two and makes it THREE in a row here with an easy win and cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* CFB 'Late Show' is on Hawaii at 11:00 ET.

The San Diego State Aztecs travel to 'paradise' for a Saturday game with Hawaii's Rainbow Warriors. SDSU opened the season 7-0, climbing imto the AP-25 rankings, with key wins over Utah (33-31), San Jose St (19-13 in 2 OTs) and Air Force (20-14). However, the Aztecs lost 30-20 last Saturday at home to Fresno St and fell out of the AP top-25. Maybe surprisingly, the Aztecs were ranked 24th in the first CFP ranking of the season (released this past Tuesday). Hawaii (4-5) has already played nine games and is hardly concerned with rankings but is just trying to get back to .500 with a win. Hawaii will play 13 games this season and bowl eligibility is a real possibility.

The SDSU situation at QB is hardly a settled matter, although it looks like Johnson, who has started the last two games, has taken over from Brookshire. Neither have put up impressive numbers and it doesn't help that the SDSU receiving corps' leading receiver has only 17 catches. RB Bell has 66 yards on 4.8 YPC with 6 TDs and its running game 'drives' the offense, averaging 200.1 YPG (34th). The Aztecs are averaging 29.6 PPG, which is more than enough when the team's defense is holding opponents to 17.5 PPG (12th) on 305.1 YPG (also 12th).

Hawaii QB Cordeiro is completing just 55.4% but has thrown for 1,706 yards with 10 TDs. Hawaii has nice balance, averaging 257.9 YPG passing and 157.7 YPG on the ground. The RB tandem of Hunter (558 yards / 7.2 YPC) and Parson (433 yards / 5.3 YPC / 6 TDs) is joined by all-purpose back Turner, who has 299 rushing yards (5.8 YPC and 7 TDs) plus is the team's leading receiver wit 52 catches (3 TDs). WR Mardner has 33 catches on 18.6 YPC with 3 TDs. The Hawaii defense is THE problem, allowing 33.9 PPG (114th) on 461.1 YPG (117th).

Many fall into the trap of playing on a team that has opened with a winning streak of say six or seven games, coming off its first loss, assuming a bounce back. However, that is often NOT the case and I think the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This will be San Diego State’s THIRD road trip in four games and considering the opposite direction of travel, I believe there is a strong chance that the Aztecs could 'slip up' for a second straight game. Hawaii is 3-1 at home and note that in its three contests vs FBS opponents, the Hawaii defense is allowing 25.0 PPG, more than EIGHT points less than its season average. Grab those points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET.

The Kentucky Wildcats opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryant era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. Losing the physical battle at No. 1 Georgia is one thing but doing so two weeks later at Mississippi State is another thing. The Wildcats lost 31-17 last Saturday in Starkville. Kentucky is aiming for a strong November that would put it in position for a good bowl berth. Head coach Mark Stoops didn't mince words when asked about last week's 31-17 loss at Mississippi State, "Played like crap," he said. "Not very many good things this past week for sure. Fell short in all areas. Not very pleased with our performance. Rough day at the office. They played harder than us, they were more physical."

Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and wemt 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee and the Vols opened 4-2 but then lost a close one at home to Ole Miss (31-26), before wearing down in the fourth quarter at Alabama, allowing the game's final 21 points in a 52-24 loss. The Vols had last weekend off and now travel to Lexington to take on longstanding rival Kentucky. QB Hooker is a true dual threat, completing 68.7% for 1,578 yards with 17 TDs and just 2 INTS. He adds 416 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 4 TDs. RB Evans has 516 yards on 6.4 YPC with 6 TDs, as the Vols are averaging 225.4 YPG (10th) on 5.0 YPC. WRs Jones (31 catches / 14.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Tillman (30 catches / 14.9 / 4 TDs) are Hooker's best targets. The Vols are averaging a healthy 37.4 PPG (17th) but allow 26.5 PPG (71st).

Kentucky QB Levis had a VERY poor game against Miss St (just 150 yards and three INTs) but has had a decent season (66.3% for 1,476 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs). RB Rodrigeuz has run for 809 yards (6.0 YPC / 5 TDs) and WR Robinson (58 catches / 11.1 YPC / 5 TDs) represent Kentucj\kty's key offensive performers. Kentucky averages PPG (27.0 PPG), 10 PPG less than Tennessee but its defense allows 20.8 PPG (34th) on 335.6 YPG (34th).

Here's the history of this series. Kentucky won last year's meeting 34-7 in Knoxville, so the Wildcats are looking for their first back-to-back wins over the Volunteers since 1976-77. The Vols have won 31 of the last 34 games with the Wildcats and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Knoxville. Kentucky loses its third straight, while Heupel's team gets a much-needed win. The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Purdue at 3:30 ET.

The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, as the Spartans and Boilermakers meet Saturday at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Michigan St comes in 8-0, including 5-0 in the Big Ten. The Spartans are currently ranked 5th in the AP, the first time Michigan St has been ranked in the top-5 since 2015 (Michigan St made its lone CFP appearance that season). Purdue enters 5-3 (3-2 in the Big Ten but reminded all of its 'Giant-Killer' reputation by beating then-No. 2 Iowa on the road back on Oct 10, ending the Hawkeyes' 12-game winning streak.

Michigan State is fresh off a big matchup vs Michigan. In that one, the Spartans pulled off an epic four-point victory, 37-33. The term 'epic' is NOT an overstatement, as MSU trailed by 16 points (30-14) in the third quarter. Michigan St QB Thorne had a modest 196 yards passing plus two picks but freshman RB Kenneth Walker ran for 197 yards and a whopping FIVE touchdowns. Thorne has had a solid season, completing 61.5% for 1,897 yards (15 TDs and 6 INTs) but Walker is having a Heisman-caliber season. He leads the nation with 1,194 yards on 6.8 YPC with 14 TDs. Thorne has a trio of WRs, all averaging 15.0-plus YPC. The trio consists of Reed (33 / 19.5 YPC / 5 TDs), Nailor (31 / 18.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mosley (21 / 15.3 YPC / 0 TDs). A quick look at the Michigan St defense shows them allowing 20.5 PPG (30th) but also 424.4 YPG (103rd!).

The question may be, can Purdue's offense take advantage of a MSU defense that has allowed a lot of yards?  O'Connell has taken over at QB for Plummer (7 TDs / 0 INTs) and while he's completing 71.0%, he's thrown nine TDs and eight INTs. Purdue has no one within 'miles' of Walker, as Doerue leads with just 363 yards (3.9 YPC / one TD). Purdue is averaging 80.5 YPG (127th) on 2.5 YPC. However, Purdue can move the ball through the air with WR Bell (53 / 14.8 YPC / 4 TDs) being among the best WRs in the nation. TE Durham has 36 catches (4 TDs) plus WRs Wright and Anthony have combined for 60 catches and four TDs. For Purdue to pull the upset, its defense will have to be the reason. The Boilermakers are allowing 17.1 PPG (10th) on 315.6 YPG (18th).

Michigan St is off its HUGE comeback win over hated-Michigan and now must take on the 'SPOILERMAKERS.' After beating No. 2 Iowa on Oct 10 as an unranked team, Purdue has now beaten a team ranked in the top-two of the AP Top 25 as an unranked team for the NINTH time in program history, more than TWICE as many as any other school. Naturally, I'll take the points but I'm sending out an Upset Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Texas A&M at 3:30 ET.

The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday, with 6-2 Auburn getting ranked No. 13 and 6-2 Texas A&M settling in right behind at No. 14. As fate would have it, the Tigers will be in College Station this Saturday to take on the Aggies, a contest which is essentially an elimination game in the SEC West. Auburn (6-2, 3-1 SEC) trails Alabama (7-1, 4-1) for the division lead, with Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2), Ole Miss (6-2, 3-2) and Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2) all fighting to stay in the race as well. However, only Auburn and Alabama control their destinies to earn a spot in the SEC title game on Dec 4. If Auburn and Alabama win the rest of their league games heading into their meeting on the final day of the regular season on Nov 27, the winner of the Iron Bowl would head to Atlanta to play top-ranked and East Division champ Georgia. That said, this is definitely a "marquee matchup," as the Tigers and Aggies have both turned their seasons around after coming close to taking major steps backward this season.
Auburn QB Bo Nix is an enigma in my mind, although his numbers are pretty good in 2021. He's completing 62.2% for 1,764 yards with a modest nine TDs but has also thrown just two INTs (a big deal). He's done all that with an underwhelming receiver corps, as Auburn does not have a single player with as many as 30 catches, after EIGHT games! However, the Tigers do have a running game, averaging 197.6 YPG (35th) on 5.5 YPC. The tandem of Bigsly (666 yards / 5.3 YPC / 7 TDs) and Hunter (530 yards / 7.7 YPC / 3 TDs) have been steady producers all season. Auburn typically plays good defense and this year's team is allowing 19.8 PPG (25th).

Texas A&M was ranked 7th in the nation when it lost 20-10 to Arkansas on Sep 25 and 15th when it lost its next game, 26-22 at Miss St. The Aggies fell out of the rankings but turned their season around with a 41-38 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9. A 35-14 win at Missouri and a 44-14 win over South Carolina have followed and as noted above, the Aggies are now No. 14 in the 1st CFP rankings. QB Calzada (just 55.3% for 1,364 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs) is no star but like Nix, he is backed by a strong running game. Spiller (761 yards / 6.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Achane (608 yards / 7.1 YPC / 5 TDs) lead a running attack that averages 188.3 YPG. A&M has no superstars among its receiving corps but WR Smith has 31 catches for six TDs and TE Wydermyer has 25 catches, averaging 14.1 YPC with four TDs. A&M's defense is actually better than Auburn's allowing 16.1 PPG (5th).

A&M felt it was 'robbed' of that 4th CFP berth last season but knows a 'Final 4' appearance is NOT in the cards here in 2021, after two losses. However, A&M can still cap an impressive season if it keeps winning, not to mention spoil Auburn's shot at entering the Iron Bowl with a chance at the SEC West title (see above). A&M has played the tougher sked (#26 vs #53) and while Auburn is on a 10-18 run as a road underdog, A&M is 15-7 ATS at home since 2018, including 4-0 here in 2021. Auburn caught a 'tired' Ole Miss team last Saturday but that will NOT be the case here, as A&M is off a bye. A&M wins comfortably, by double digits!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Air Force at 11:30 am ET.

Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights opened 4-0 in 2021 but if one looked more closely, the teams Army beat had a combined 3-13 (.188) SU record. However, Army has lost three straight since its perfect start, most recently to Wake Forest in a 70-56 final. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons opened the 2021 season 6-1 (lone loss was 49-45 at Utah St), before losing 20-14 to a then-unbeaten SD State team. The two service academies meet Saturday at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, with kickoff scheduled 30 minutes before high noon ET.

Both teams own dominant running games, as Army rushes for 312.3 YPG (3rd) on 4.9 YPC, while Air Forces average 318.4 YPG (1st) on YPC. Neither team is effective throwing the ball and basically, passes are not a real part of either team's playbook. The big difference between the two teams is on the defensive side of the ball, as Army is allowing 27.7 PPG (80th), while Air Force is holding opponents to just 16.8 PPG (7th). Even more impressively, Air Force ranks THIRD nationally in allowing just 281.6 YPG.

Air Force was 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS from 2006-16 but Army has won THREE of the last four meetings (also 3-1 ATS) but I won't ignore the fact that Air Force is a MONEY-MAKING 23-8 ATS over its last 31 non-conference games. The winner here claims the Commander-in-Chief's trophy and my bet says that Air Force takes it. Lay the short price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights Play is on Boston College 7:30 ET.

A pair of 4-4 teams square off Friday night when the Virginia Tech Hokies and Boston College Eagles meet Friday at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Both have arrived at 4-4 taking different paths. Va Tech opened its season with a 17-10 upset of preseason No. 10 North Craolina and sat 3-1 before losing THREE in a row to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, ALL at home. Va Tech ended its three-game slide with a 26-17 road win at Ga Tech. Boston College, in Jeff Hafley's second season (6-5 in his first), opened 4-0 but has since lost ALL four of its ACC games to fall to .500. The slide began with a near-upset of Clemson but the last three wins have come by scores of 33-7 (NC St), 28-14 (Louisville) and 21-6 (Syracuse).

Virginia Tech is led by QB Braxton Burmeister, who is a true double threat. He has completed just 54.3% of his passes for 1,495 yards with nine TDs and only three INTs. Burmeister also has 272 rushing yards with two TDs. RB Blackshear and Thomas have combined for 660 yards and seven TDs, as Tech averages 160.1 YPG rushing (74th). Turner (34 catches / 17.7 YPC / 2 TDs) and Robinson (31 catches / 10.4 YPC / 4 TDs) are the best WRs. The offense averages a modest 24.0 YPG (24th) but the defense is solid, allowing 22.4 PG (45th). However, Tech was always known as one of the nation's top defense (and specials teams, as well) but that's no longer the case.

BC's QB is Grossel (57.8% for 1,216 yards with six TDs ands seven INTs), who is clearly no star (was bench in the Syracuse loss). Garwo leads the team with 689 yards rushing (5.9 YPC / 5 TDs) but the Eagles only average 155.3 YPG on the ground (78th). Flowers (35 catches / 14.6 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Barry (18 catches / 16.0 YPC / 3 TDs) are the best of the receiving corps. BC averages 25.6 PPG (84th) but its defense is holding opponenst to 20.8 PPG (33rd) on 346.9 YPG (42nd).

Justin Fuente came to Va Tech after a couple successful season at Memphis but after a going 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seaosns, the Hokies are just 18-16 the last two-plus seasons (his 'seat' is getting 'hot!'). Va Tech 'limps' in 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and BC is 7-3 ATS the last 10 in this series plus 10-3-1 its last 14 times as a home dog (goes back into the 2016 season. 'Bow Wow!' Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC Attack is on Kent St at 7:00 ET.

MACtion began Tuesday night with three games and continues tonight with two more, as the Northern Illinois Huskies take on the Kent State Golden Flashes from Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio. NIU is led by third-year head coach Thomas Hammock, who went 5-7 in his first season and then 0-6 in the COVID-shortened 2002 season. However, NIU had nine starters back on offense and 10 on defense and the Huskies enter this contest on a five-game winning streak that has them at 6-2 overall, including 4-0 in the MAC-West. Kent's Sean Lewis is just 34 (youngest head coach at the FBS level) and after going 2-10 in his first season, led Kent to a Frisco Bowl win in 2019, as the team finished 7-6. Kent played just four games in 2020 (1-3) but while the Golden Flashes are just 4-4 in 2021, they are 3-1 and atop the MAC-East. This could be a MAC title game preview.

QB Rocky Lombardi is completing a modest 57.8% and has thrown for 1,321 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. However, NIU's offense is led by a rushing attack that has averaged 232.8 YPG (10th) and features five players with more than 200 rushing yards (Lombard is in that group and has five TDs). RBs Waylee (574 yards / 5.7 YPC / 4 TDs) and Ducker (478 yards / 5.4 YPC) are the top producers. NIU's weakness is the team's defense, which is allowing 31.5 PPG (104th) on 420.4 YPG (98th).

QB Dustin Crum has better numbers than Lombard, completing 62.3% for 1,770 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs. He's run for 368 yards and six TDs, adding to a running game that's averaging 220.1 YPG on the ground (17th). Cooper (558 yards / 4.7 YPC / 5 TDs) and Williams (378 yards / 4.9 YPC / one TD) are the top-two RBs. Cephas (50 catches / 6 TDs) is the top receiving threat, while fellow WRs Johnson and Abram have combined for 58 catches and three TDs. Like with NIU, Kent's defense struggles, allowing 33.4 PPG (113th) on 475.1 YPG (123rd).

As noted above, this could be a preview of the MAC title game but the path to that championship game is much easier for NIU than it is for Kent St. NIU is off a thrilling 39-38 win in its last game, the team's FIFTH straight victory (4-1 ATS). The Huskies are already bowl-eligible, something Kent still needs two wins to achieve. Kent looked decent in its most recent action, pulling away for a 34-27 win at Ohio as a five-point favorite but while NIU has some 'breathing room' (letdown situation?) Kent has NO such luxury with two road games up next. The Golden Flashes are 3-0 at home but just 1-4 on the road, so this becomes almost a "must-win!" Both defenses struggle but both has excellent running games. The difference? Kent's QB play with Crum over Lombard. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on North Carolina at 7:30 ET.

North Carolina went 8-4 last season and despite losing some key offensive performers (more later), the Tar Heels returned Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howll and 10 defensive starters. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll, the school's highest preseason ranking since being ranked No. 7 at the start of the 1997 season (in Mack Browns' first tenure at Chapel Hill). However, the Tar Heels 'limp' into South Bend unranked with a HUGELY disappointing 4-3. Notre fDame opened 10-0 last season before losing 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC championship. The Irish still made CFB's 'Final 4,' but lost 31-14 to Alabama in a contest in which the final score hardly reflected Alabama's domination of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly's team entered the current season with just three returning starters on offense and six on defense but was ranked No. 9 in the preseason (name recognition helps, huh?) The Irish have struggled at times this season (more below) but are currently 6-1 and hold down the No. 11 spot in the AP's latest poll.

QB Howell has excellent numbers (61.6% for 1,851 yards with 18 TDs and 6 INTs plus 494 rushing yards with 5 scores), despite losing WRs Brown (55 catches / 20.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Newsome (54 catches / 6 TDs), as well as a pair of 1,000-yard RBs. Carter ran for 1,245 yards on 8.0 YPC with 9 TDs and Williams for 1,140 yards on 7.3 YPC and 19 TDs! RB Chandler has 588 yards on 5.5 YPC with 7 TDs and along with Howell, has the Tar Heels averaging 199.1 YPG on the ground. Sophomore WR Downs caught just seven passes last year but has 60 this season (13.8 YPC / 7 TDs), while TE Morales has 16 catches but 4 TDs. Despite 10 returning starters on defense, the Tar Heels are allowing 28.9 PPG, only slightly less than last season (29.4 PPG).

Notre Dame is off a solid 31-16 win over USC last Saturday but the Irish have lost to their toughest opponent (24-13 at home to now-No. 2 Cincinnati) plus have won THREE games by just three points, over FSU in OT, Toledo and Va Tech. The team's 41-13 win at Wisconsin looks great on paper but Notre Dame actually trailed 13-10 in the fourth quarter of that contest. QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin transfer) has been OK but surely nothing special. He's completing 63.5% for 1,397 yards with 11 TDs and four INTs plus gets very little help from a running game that averages 106.7 YPG (117th!), after averaging 211 YPG on the ground last season. TE Mayer leads the team with 37 catches with WRs Austin and Davis hauling in just 22 and 20, respectively. The defense is allowing 23.1 PPG (not bad) but also not up to the standards of the previous three seasons (19.7, 17.9 and 18.2 PPG).

Here's the rub. This game is really a 'must-win" for North Carolina. The Tar Heels host 7-0 Wake Forest (No. 13) for a Homecoming game next Saturday and then play at 6-1 Pitt (No. 17) the following weekend. Those games won't mean much if the Tar Heels fall to 4-4 here. Not many teams have gone into South Bend and come away with a win in recent years (Bearcats are the exception) but this Howell-led offense is MORE than capable of outscoring the Coan-led offense, which gets NOTHING from its running game. Upset Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SEC Game of the Week is on Miss St at 7:00 ET.

The Kentucky Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryany era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. The Wildcats got last weekend off (probably a good thing) and Saturday night travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi St Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2). 

Kentucky head coach Mike Stoops is in his 9th season with Kentucky and he's well ahead of pace to become his best team since arriving in Lexington. QB Will Levis is completing 67.2% for 1,326 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs, despite a very mediocre cast of receivers. WR Robinson has 49 catches with five TDs but no other player has more than 17 receptions. However, Levis is helped by a strong running game averaging 190.9 YPG (41st), led by Rodriguez (755 yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs). The Kentiucky defense is first-rate, allowing 19.3 PPG (24th) on 321.0 YPG (22nd).

A Mike Leach offense always centers around its QB and Will Rogers is filling the bill VERY nicely. He's completing 73.5% for 2,546 yards with 18 TDs and seven INTs. In stark comparison to Kentucky, Miss St has SIX players with 25 receptions or more, with WR Polk (58 catches / 6 TDs) leading the way and RB Marks catching 49. Marks has just 194 yards rushing and that's the Bulldogs' 'kryptonite,' as Miss St averages 48.7 YPG on the ground (2.5 YPC), LAST among the 130 FBS teams. Defensively, Miss St allows just five more YPG than Kentucky but about a TD more per game (25.7)

The Wildcats have dropped their last five games in Starkville and Kentucky hasn't beaten the Bulldogs in Mississippi since 2008. I'm not sure the bye week will help Kentucky end its woes on Halloween weekend in a venue that's become a 'House of Horrors (see above). Let me add that Miss St has outscored Kentucky 115-36 in its last three wins here in Starkville. Throw in that recent series history also shows that the home team is 6-0 SU & ATS and the Bulldogs are the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Wisconsin (12:00 ET).

Iowa's Kirk Ferentz arrived in Iowa City way back in 1999 and after going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, has been a steady, consistent winner. The Hawkeyes opened 2020 with back-to-back losses (by four points and one point) but then won SIX in a row, going 5-1 ATS with an average MOV of 21.8 PPG. Iowa earned an 18th bowl bid under Ferentz in 2020 but the Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID. Iowa opened the season No. 18 in the AP's preseason poll and ripped off SIX straight wins, three over ranked teams. Iowa was the nation's No. 2 ranked team when it saw its 12-game winning (10-2 ATS) streak end with a 24-7 at Purdue on Oct 16. The 6-1 Hawkeyes had a welcome bye last Saturday and visit Camp Randall on Saturday to face 4-3 Wisconsin.

Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers had already lost TWICE and fallen out of the top-25. The Badgers lost 38-17 at home to Michigan to open October to fall to 1-3. Head coach Paul Chryst is in his seventh year at Madison and entered the season 56-19 with six bowl appearances (5-1) but the 2021 season was on the verge of slipping away. However, the Badgers have rebounded to win THREE in a row, including last Saturday's impressive 30-13 road win over then-No. 25 Purdue (fresh off its win over Iowa).

Iowa relies on an outstanding defense, which is allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) on 301.1 YPG 12th), while forcing a nation-best 16 takeaways. Those takeaways have helped a poor Iowa offense to average 28.0 PPG. Iowa is averaging only 311.1 YPG (120th), including 116.9 YPG (103rd) on the ground. QB Spencer Petras completes just 59.5% for 1,333 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. RB Godson is solid (586 yards on 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but as a team, the Hawkeyes average a woeful 3.1 YPC. TE LaPorta is the only player with more than 20 catches, with 28 receptions and two TDs.

Wisconsin QB Mertz is having a terrible season, completing 55.9% for 945 yards with two INTs and seven INTs. However, during the team's three-game winning streak, he's avoided missteps, throwing just one INT in 42 attempts. He's stepped out of the way and Wisconsin's two  outstanding RBs (Mellusi and Allen) take over. Wisconsin has run for 879 yards in its three wins (293.0 YPG), with Allen topping 100 yards in all three and Mellusi in two of the three. On the season, Mellusi has 692 yards on 6.2 YPC with 4 TDs and Allen 428 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs. The Wisconsin D has been strong all season but in its three wins, has allowed only 27 total points. Wisconsin rush D ranks 1st in the nation, allowing only 53.3 YPG.

Sure, after a bye week and a loss to Purdue, Iowa will be primed for a bounce back but Camp Randall is the WRONG place at the WRONG time for that to happen. Running the ball against Wisconsin seems like too big of a hill to climb and Petras is NOT the type of QB to win it with his arm. The 'savior' for Iowa would be for its defense to force Wisconsin into mistakes (TOs) but Wisconsin has not fallen prey to that these last three weeks.

Wisconsin has won SEVEN of its last nine vs Iowa and it's Homecoming at Camp Randall. A Wisconsin win and the Badgers will be 3-2, tied with Iowa in the Big Ten West, plus will own the tiebreaker. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* CFB Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET.

USC/Notre Dame is the greatest intersectional rivalry in CFB history. The schools had met in every season since World War II before this long standing rivalry took a one-season break due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. "It's baaack!" in 2021, as No. 13 Notre Dame (5-1) hosts an underachieving USC team that opened 15th in the AP's preseason poll but is currently unranked with a 3-3 record. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 47-36-5, as after after winning SEVEN straight in the series, the Trojans have lost SEVEN of the last 10, including four straight in South Bend.

USC is no longer referred to as "Tailback U," as the Trojans are averaging a modest 129.8 YPG on the ground (93rd), although RB Ingram (419 yards on 5.7 YPC) is a solid player. QB Kedon Slovis was often mentioned as a Heisman hopeful coming into the season but has NOT played like one. He's completing 64.0% for 1,519 yards but has a modest 9-5 TD/INT ratio. He does own an outstanding WR in Drake London, who can make a case for being the best WR in the nation. He has 64 catches for 832 yards and five TDs.  His reception total ranks second nationally and the yardage ranks fourth. The USC defense is pretty mediocre, allowing 27.3 PPG (79th) on 382.2 YPG (69th).

Notre Dame's lone blemish this season came in a 24-13 home loss to then-No. 7 Cincinnati on Oct 2 (Bearcats are now No. 2 in the nation!). Notre Dame is off a bye (so is USC), eking out a 32-29 win at Virginia Tech 32-29 in its most recent game  Head coach Brian Kelly said that Jack Coan (62.1%  for 1,208 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs) would be the starting QB against USC but that Tyler Buchner also would see action. Coan began the season with 366 yards and four TDs against Florida State but has seen his yardage drop in all of the ensuing games. He threw for 108 yards against Virginia Tech while splitting time with Buchner (113 yards). Notre Dame's running game is worse than USC's, averaging only 96.2 YPG (119th) on a pathetic 2.9 YPC. The Irish do have some quality receivers in TE Meyer (32 catches / 3 TDs) plus WRs Austin and Davis, who each have 18 receptions while both are averaging over 17.0 YPC with a combined five TD catches. Notre Dame's defense is not bad (24.3 PPG and 360.7 YPG allowed) but it's clearly NOT in the class of a defense that allowed 19.7, 17.9 and 18.2 PPG the previous three seasons.

USC could surely use a big victory during a season that has been overshadowed by the firing of Clay Helton after a loss to Stanford in Week 2. Donte Williams is serving as interim coach while athletic director Mike Bohn works on making a hire to lead the program. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly reacted by saying, "USC is going through a coaching change. We understand that, but this team plays extremely well against Notre Dame. It's a rivalry game, and they've played very well on the road. I'm sure that's because they can get away from the distractions that they're dealing with on a day-to-day basis. So, we expect to get the best version of USC, which will be a very good football team."

I agree with Kelly (never thought I'd say that!). USC has lost all three Pac-12 home games but has won 45-14 at Washington St and 37-14 at Colorado. Those teams are NOT Notre Dame but note that THREE of Notre Dame's five wins have come by three points plus its wins over Purdue and Wisconsin were VERY deceiving final scores (if you don't believe, look it up!). The Irish are just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2020, while USC has played well coming off a loss for quite a while now, going 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 following a SU loss. This game always means a lot to both schools but I HAVE to believe this one "means more" to USC.

Trojans running back Vavae Malepeai (who?) made it clear his team plans to go into South Bend and come out with a victory. "There's a lot of history behind this game," Malepeai said. "We're putting it on our shoulders to make sure we get that job done." Hell, earlier I agreed with Brian Kelly (who I can't stand), so I may as well agree with someone I never heard of. Take the points. "Fight On!"

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd play of my STP is an 8* on Ga Tech at 7:30 ET.

The Cavaliers (5-2, 3-2 ACC) scored on all six first-half possessions and cruised to a 48-0 blowout of the Blue Devils last Saturday, while the Yellow Jackets (3-3, 2-2) seized the lead with 51 seconds left in a 31-27 win against Duke in their most recent game (Oct. 9). Virginia lost 59-39 to North Carolina and then 37-17 to Wake Forest but has ripped off three straight wins since, nail-biters over Mia-Fl (30-28) and 34-33 over Louisville, prior to the beatdown of Duke. Ga Tech gave then-No. 6 Clemson all it wanted in a 14-8 loss, before shocking then-No. 21 North Carolina, 45-22. Ga Tech is off a bye week

The Yellow Jackets have lost their last three games on Cavaliers' home field, and 12 of 14 since 1992. However, head coach Geoff Collins hopes that is about to change. Back on Oct 9 against Duke, QB Jeff Sims led a clutch six-play, 88-yard drive in the final two minutes, capped by a 36-yard TD pass. Sims finished with 297 yards on 12-of-25 passing with three scores and two interceptions. He has accounted for 10 TDs (six passing, four rushing) in his last three games and is now the clear starter at QB. "Jeff's a big-time player," Collins said. "Obviously, we want to eliminate those early turnovers moving forward, but he's a big-time player. ... The guys have faith in him." Ga Tech has a trio of quality RBs and the team averages 169.0 YPG (61st)

UVA's offense is centered around QB Brennan Armstrong, who has completed 63.8% for 2,824 yards with 19 TDs and six INTs. WR Kemp has 48 catches but averages inluy9.9 YPC (he does have four TDs). Fellow WR Wicks has 32 catches and averages 21.2 YC with six TDs while TE Woods has 23 catches and five TDs. The running game offers little help, averaging 119.9 YPG (10st). UVA's defense allows 24.4 PPG (to Ga Tech's 25.7 PPG) but is giving up way too many yards (413.1, which ranks 94th). UVA has the better QB but as Ga Tech coach Collins points out, Sims is making his mark and his confidence (and the team's) is growing.

Ga Tech is more than capable of sneaking up on UVA, which has a trip to BYU up next for the Cavaliers (note: UVA head coach Bronco Mendenhall left BYU for UVA after the 2015 season, having taken the Cougars to 11 bowls in his 11 seasons at Provo). Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd play of my STP is an 8* on La Tech at 7:00 ET.

Clemson (No. 3), Iowa St (No. 7) and North Carolina (No. 10) were all ranked in the AP's preseason top-10 but are all currently unranked (and own a combined SEVEN loses), yet UTSA has opened 7-0 (3-0 in C-USA) and with road wins at Illinois and Memphis, Roadrunners are ranked for the first time in program history, at No. 24. Can't make this stuff up! The question UTSA must answer Saturday night when the Roadrunners visit Ruston, La., for a C-USA matchup with Louisiana Tech is, "can they handle success?". UTSA surely had no problem with Rice last Saturday, blanking the Owls 45-0. Second-year coach Jeff Traylor called it the team's most complete game. "It was by far the best game we have played in all three phases," he said. "This was a big game with a lot of pressure on those kids. Those kids understand the pressure. They came out and played as good as I have seen them play." This is the 11th year of the Roadrunners' program, which was started in 2011 under former Miami coach Larry Coker. He went 26-32 in five years and was replaced by Frank Wilson, who posted a 19-29 mark from 2016 to 2019 and took the school to its first bowl game. Traylor came aboard in December 2019 after serving as running backs coach at Arkansas and posted a 7-5 mark last year, guiding the program to its second bowl appearance. A third bowl game is all but assured now.

Louisiana Tech is just 2-4 (1-1 in C-USA), after a 19-3 conference loss last week at surprising UTEP. The Roadrunners are the second ranked team Louisiana Tech has played in 2021, In that one, the Bulldogs could have forced overtime at N.C. State before a final-snap interception allowed the Wolfpack to close out a 34-27 win in Raleigh back on Oct 2. "It doesn't get any easier," Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz said. "It's going to be a great challenge for us. I'm glad we have the opportunity to come back home." Holtz knows more than a little bit about winning, as he led La Tech to SIX consecutive bowl wins from 2014-2019, before losing 38-3 to Ga Southern in last year's New Orleans Bowl.

UTSA's offense is led by QB  Frank Harris, who has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 1,600 yards, with a 14-3 touchdown-interception ratio. RB McCormick has rushed for 778 yards on 4.7 YPC with six TDs (team averages 18.0 YPG on the ground to rank 48th). A trio of WRs, Joshua Cephus, Zakhari Franklin and De'Corian Clark, have combined for 113 receptions and accounted for 14 TDs. UTSA's defense is allowing just 19.1 PPG (22nd) on 323.3 YPG (31st) and is greatly helped by having forced 14 turnovers.

La Tech averages 28.3 PPG, led by QB Austin Kendall, who has thrown for 1,342 yards and 10 TDs in five games, with eight INTs (he's completing 59.5%). He has a mediocre receiving corps and the Bulldogs' running game averages only 123.8 YPG (98th).The La Tech defense is allowing 31.0 PPG (99th) on a whopping 457.3 YPG (118th).

Clearly, La Tech does NOT match up well on paper but we all know games are NOT played on paper. The Bulldogs, particularly under Skip Holtz own a fairly impressive history. Look how close La Tech came to NC St on the road (see above). This marks the Bulldogs first home game since a 24-17 conference victory over North Texas back on Sep 25. Note that last season, that UTSA was only able to eke out a 27-26 victory in San Antonio and that Louisiana Tech owns a 7-2 lead in the all-time series, First-ever game as a ranked team and the Roadrunners draw a La Tech team that is 5-0 when hosting UTSA, winning by a margin of 19 PPG! 'Bow Wow!' Take the points. Upset Alert? Just maybe.

Good luck...Larry

The first play of my STP is an 8* on Clemson at 3:30 ET.

Clemson began the season ranked No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but opened with a 10-3 loss to then-No. 5 Georgia. The way the Bulldogs have played here in 2021 (now a unanimous No. 1), that loss is nothing to be ashamed of. However, when the Tigers visit  Pittsburgh for the first time in program history on Saturday, Clemson will come in 4-2 and unranked, while the Panthers are 5-1 and ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. The last time Pitt won 10 games was back in 2009, while Clemson came into the current season having won 10-plus games in every season since going 6-7 in 2010.

That said, Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi isn't buying the perception that the Tigers are a mere shell of their former self. "They're obviously a great football team," Narduzzi said. "I know they're not tops in the country right now, but they are talented. They're one of the top scoring defenses in the country." Narduzzi is correct on that count, as the Tigers are allowing 12.5 PPG (2nd) and have allowed only two rushing TDs this season. However, Clemson's offense is quite another story, as after averaging 44.3, 43.9 and 43.5 PPG behind Trevor Lawrence the previous three seasons, Clemson QB Uiagalelei has NOT been ready for primetime. Clemson is averaging just 20.5 PPG, ranking 113th in the nation. Say it Ain't so, DJ!

The QB of note in this game will be Pitt's Kenny Pickett, who is completing 69.8% for 1,934 yards with 21 TDs and just one INT. WR Addison has 34 catches (17.2 YPC / 9 TDs) plus TE Krull checks with just 17 receptions but five TDs. Pitt's defense is not quite in Clemson's class but the Panthers are allowing just 20.0 PPG (34th) on 319.3 YPG (26th). That's nothing to shake a stick at, as my grandfather used to say.

Clemson will enter this game as an underdog in an Atlantic Coast Conference game for the first time since 2016 and that should add plenty of motivation (the good old chip on the shoulder kind). It's also worthy of noting that Pittsburgh beat the Tigers in Clemson 43-42 midway through the 2016 season, a year in which the Tigers went on to win the national championship that season. Clemson has won 31 straight home games since that loss and has dominated both meetings against Pitt since, winning 42-10 in the 2018 ACC Championship Game and 52-17 last season at Clemson.

Clemson is 0-6 ATS and Pittsburgh is 5-1. Something tells me those trends reverse here. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on BYU at 3:30 ET.

BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and opened 5-0 in 2021, including notable wins 26-17 over then-No. 21 Utah (ending a 9-game losing streak in "The Holy War") and 27-17 over then-No. 21 Arizona St. However, the Cougars come to Pullman off back-to-back losses, 26-17 at home to Boise St and 38-24 at Baylor. Washington St  played just four games in 2020's COVID season, winning its opener and then going 0-3 SU and ATS, while allowing 42.0 PPG. It was Nick Rolovich's first season at Washington St, after he led his alma mater (Hawaii) to a 28-27 record in four years but with three Hawaii Bowl berths (2-1). Rolovich is a former QB, well-liked and the Cougars expected him to revive the program. Wash St opened just 1-3 but then beat Cal (21-16), Oregon St (31-24) and Stanford (34-31) to reach 4-3 (is on a 4-0 ATS streak0. However, as all have to know by now, he was dismissed from his head coaching position, along with four assistants (more later).

BYU averaged 43.5 PPG last season (down to 26.7 in 2021), while allowing only 15.3 PPG (up to 23.0 in 2021). QB Jaren Hall got hurt and Baylor Romney filled in nicely (80.0% with 5 TDs and zero INTs) but Hall is back and it's hard to blame him for the two losses, as he threw for 302 and 342 yards. He's completing 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and just 5 INTs, plus has run for 188 yards on 6.3 YPC. RB Allgeier is a tough inside runner and has 675 yards on 5.0 YPC and nine TDs. BYU always has receivers and this year's team in no different with Pau'u (31 catches / 4 TDs), Gunner Romney (26 catches / 17.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Nacua (20 catches on 22.62 YPC).

Washington St QB deLaura has completed 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs. He also has some 'sweet' WRs in Harris (44 catches / 5 TDs), Jackson (37 catches / 4 TDs) and Stribling (24 catches / 4 TDs). However, the Washington St running game averages just 111.7 YPG (114th) on 3.7 YPC with the lone notable contributor being Borghi (421 yards on 5.1 YPC / 5 TDs). The Cougars are scoring 25.7 PPG and allowing 25.7 PPG.

Teams respond in one of two ways after a coaching change. They either rally and dig deep for a victory, or they fall flat on their face. Nick Rolovich was loved by his players but he took a public stance against being vaccinated for COVID-19, in spite of a state mandate that applies to public education workers. He's no longer a state employee. Do the players feel abandoned by Rolovich? Are they upset with the school? I guess we'll find out. BYU has played the tougher schedule and knows a loss here (off back-to-back losses) and the team's season would be in a severe downward spiral (plenty of motivation here for the Cougars). I'm a big fan of BYU head coach Kelani Sitake and right now, Washington St is basically coach-less. I'm laying the short price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Kansas St at 12:00 ET.

Chris Kleiman led Kansas St to an 8-5 season in his first year at Kansas St but fell to 4-6 last year. Kansas St opened the 2021 season 3-0, including solid wins over Stanford 24-7 at a neutral site) and 38-17 at Nevada. However, the Wildcats have opened Big 12 play 0-3, allowing 101 points (33.7 PPG) , in losing to Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Iowa St. Texas Tech began with a 38-21 over Houston (neutral site) and was 3-0 when it got pounded 70-35 by Texas. The Red Raiders rebounded with a 23-20 win at West Va but then lost 52-31 at home to TCU, before beating Big 12 'punching bag' Kansas, 41-14. Head coach Matt Wells is in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. The Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons but this year's team is 5-2.

Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson is 44 of 64 for 526 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in two games since returning from a knee injury. For him to be effective, he needs balance and the running has shown promise (162.5 YPG ranks 69th), with RB Deuce Vaughn rushing for 543 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC and 5 TDs (he's also the team's leading receiver with 23 catches, adding two more TDs). The defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (60th) on 355.2 YPG (52nd), despite struggling against big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders average 168.6 YPG on the ground (63rd) with Thompson (314 yards on 5.0 YPC and 6 TDs) plus Brooks (284 yards on 8.1 YPC with 4 TDs). QB Tyler Shough averaged 218 passing yards per game before breaking his collarbone in the Sept 25 loss to Texas but backup Henry Colombi has stepped right in, averaging 264.5 YPG over the past four games. The Texas Tech defense is allowing 31.4 PPG (102nd) on 386.4 YPG (75th).

Kansas St is on a three-game slide but note Oklahoma St and Oklahoma are both unbeaten, while Iowa St was ranked No. 7 in the preseason (pretty tough three-game stretch). For one, Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is not buying the fact that Kansas State is struggling. "K-State has beat us (five) years in a row," Wells said. "They're tough; they're physical. I have a lot of respect for Chris Kleiman. I think Skylar Thompson is gritty and tough. He has a lot of moxie. Deuce Vaughn is one of the best in the country, and they've got some guys in the special teams that keep you up at night."

Great situation for Kansas St to get back in the win column after a rough three-game stretch. Kansas St has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against Texas Tech since 2011. What changes here? Nothing.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on UCF at 7:00 ET.

Ryan Silverfield was hired by Mike Norvell as an assistant at Memphis to begin the 2016 season. He was elevated to assistant head coach in 2019, and was named interim head coach when Norvell left to take the head coach position at Florida State. he promoted to head coach on December 13 and debuted in his first college game as head coach against Penn State in the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic (lost 53-39). He led the Tigers to an 8-3 season in 2020 (first as a head coach), including a 25-10 win over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl, which marked Memphis' 7th straight bowl appearance.

UCF joined Division I FBS in 1996 but the Knights were just 46-44 after eight seasons. George O'Leary took over in 2004 and the school went 0-11 but posted a winning record in SEVEN of the next 10 seasons, winning 10 games in 2007 and 2012, 11 in 2010 and 12 in 2013 (12-1 season left them No. 10 in the final AP poll). Things fell apart in 2015, as the team went 0-12 (O'Leary was fired after opening 0-8). "To the rescue" came Scott Frost, who in his second season (2017), went 13-0 as UCF finished No. 6 in the final AP poll, Frost used that season as a springboard to take the Nebraska job (How's that worked out Scott?). Josh Heupel took over and led UCF to a 12-2 season in 2018 and 10-3 in 2019, before falling to 6-4 in 2020. Heupel has moved on to Tennessee and taking over is Gus Malzahn, who was fired after last season by Auburn after eight years at the school.

Memphis has been all over the map as far as its game-to-game consistency has been concerned this season. The Tigers opened the year with three straight victories, but then lost to UTSA, Temple and Tulsa over the following three weeks. Memphis improved to 4-3 with a win over Navy, which is just 1-5 but its lone win has come over UCF. QB Henigan has completed 60.8% for 1,253 yards with 16 TDs and four INTs. RB Thomas has 642 yards rushing (6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) plus Henigan's top-two targets are WR Austin (50 catches / 17.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and TE Dykes (27 catches / 16.3 YPC / 5 TDs). The offense averages 35.9 PPG (23rd) but allows 30.4 PPG (96th) on 426.6 YPG (100th).

Gus Malzahn's team has been bombarded with injuries in the early going but this guy is a quality coach and I don't expect last week's 56-21 loss at now-No. 2 Cincinnati to keep this team down. QB Dillon Gabriel is sidelined by an injury and is missed but freshman Mikey Keene is capable. RBs Richardson (317 yards / 6.1 YPC / one TD) and Bowser (295 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs) lead a strong running game averaging 204.2 YPG (129th). Like Memphis, the UCF defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 32.2 PPG (107th0. I'm a fan of Malzahn. During his eight seasons at Auburn, he was 68-35, including THREE wins over Alabama plus made a trip to the 2013 national championship game where the Tigers lost 34-31 to FSU when the Seminoles scored with 13 seconds 

Neither team is going to beat you with its defense, but the Tigers' inconsistencies from one week to the next makes them untrustworthy here. What does matter is, series history and the home field advantage. UCF had won 13 straight over Memphis before losing 50-49 at Memphis in 2020. Methinks, UCF remembers. UCF was 21-0 SU at home from 2017-19, before going just 2-2 last season. Throw in UCF's 3-0 home record in 2021 and that's 26-2 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season. At this price, UCF is a HUGE play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET.

Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona.

Washington saw head coach Chris Petersen retire after the 2019 season, having gone 55-26 in six seasons (six bowls). Jimmy Lake took over (his first-ever head coaching gig) in 2020 and was 3-1 in a COVID-riddled season. Washington was expected to contend for the Pac 12 North title (some had them the favorite) but the Huskies opened with an embarrassing 13-7 home loss to Montana (FCS), then fell 31-10 at Michigan in Week 2. The Huskies then smashed Arkansas State 52-3 and beat California 31-24, before then falling to Oregon State 27-24 in their last outing before their bye.

UCLA's Thompson-Robinson is a talented dual threat at QB, passing for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. He has added 242 rushing yards and four TDs, UCLA has a strong running game, averaging 224.5 YPG (18th), led by RBs Charbonnet (566 yards / 6.4 YPC / 7 TDs) and Brown (442 yards / 6.3 YPC / 4 TDs). The defense is nothing special, allowing 26.5 PPG (75th) on 401.0 YPG (83rd).

Washington QB Morris is average, throwing for 1,262 yards with seven TDs and six INTs. The running game offers little help, averaging 116.6 YPG (105th), led by McGrew (just 188 yards but averaging 4.9 YPC and 6 TDs). The Washington offense averages a modest 24.8 PPG (92nd) but the defense is strong, allowing 19.6 PPG (29th) on 326.8 YPG (35th).

The Pac-12 North leader is 2-1 Oregon St, so the 1-1 Huskies are far from 'done,' with seven conference games remaining. Off a bye week (note: UCLA is on a 7-2 ATS run off a bye), a win here is almost a MUST! Washington's last-second, 27-24 loss at Oregon State back on Oct 2 still 'stings!'. UCLA has gone 2-0 on the road in 2021, although one win came at Arizona, which has lost 17 in a row? However, I will not ignore the fact that entering this season, the Bruins were just 5-21 SU on the road since 2016! In that same time frame, Washington is 28-6 SU in Husky Stadium. A SU win here virtually guarantees an ATS win. Take Washington.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET.

Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that!

Danny Gonzales took over at New Mexico in 2020 and because of COVID missed spring practice and then the MWC originally decided not to play in 2020. When the league did decide to return, the New Mexico governor decided to ban athletics, so the Lobos never played a single game in New Mexico. The team started 0-5 but did win its final two games, 17-16 over Wyoming (+18) and 49-39 over Fresno St (+12). 17 starters returned for 2021 and the Lobos opened with home wins over Houston Baptist and New Mexico St. However, they've followed with three straight losses, as CSU comes to town for the school's Homecoming game. 

Rams QB Centeio has thrown for 1,039 yards with five TDs and just one INT plus has run for 203 yards. Bailey (260 yards) and Vivens (232 yards) join Centeio with over 200 yards, as CSU averages 170.8 YPG on the ground. However, the Rams are averaging a modest 22.4 PPG (107th). The good news is that the defense is allowing only 22.0 PPG (23rd) on 328.8 YPG (36th).

Trey Wilson is the Lobos starter at QB, passing for 1,058 yards with seven TDs and four INTs. He's got a pair of solid RBs in Dumas (284 yards on 5.0 YPC) and Cole (3231 yards on 3.6 YPC) but the offense is averaging only 15.2 PPG (128th) on 282.7 YPG (125th). The defense is allowing 27.5 PPG (84th).

OK, Colorado St has won 10 straight over New Mexico (8-2 ATS) but the Rams had trouble finishing off drives against San Jose St (settled for SIX field goals) plus CSU's best RB (Bailey) is questionable for this game. The Rams take the field Saturday night for the first of three road games in a four-game stretch and it's HARD to ignore that CSU is just 4-12 SU in its last 16 road games. Yes, the Rams may win (making it 11 straight over New Mexico) but it will NOT be a 'walk in the park." I just think this is too many points for this Colorado State team to be giving up on the road to a 'hungry' New Mexico side looking form its first ATS win of 2021, after an 0-6 start. I'm expecting a very tight battle until the final whistle. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET.

4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game.

Pitt comes to town off a satisfying 52-21 win over Georgia Tech. QB Kenny Pickett is having an OUTSTANDING season, having completed 72% of his passes for 1,731 yards with 19 TDs and one INT. interceptions. Israel Abanikanda and Vincent Davis each have 200-plus rushing yards for a running game that's averaging 169.0 YPG on the ground. WR Addison has 29 catches, averaging 18.1 YPC and his nine TD grabs are tied for 1st among FBS players. Pittsburgh is averaging 52.4 PPG and has scored at least 41 points in all five of its games, which is the longest stretch in program history. The defense is allowing 22.6 PPG (49th), which 'works well' when the offense is averaging 50-plus points.

Virginia Tech is led by QB Braxton Burmeister, who is a true double threat. He has completed 58.8% of his passes for 930 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Burmeister also leads the team in rushing with 193 yards and has added two rushing TDs. As has been typical over the years, the Hokies have been strong defensively this season, allowing an average of just 18.6 PPG (24th).

Getting the job done on the road in Blacksburg is a lot easier said than done, despite Pickett being an amazing talent. It's hard to imagine Pitt "looking past" the Hokies on Saturday, but with home games upcoming against Clemson and Miami next, the possibility definitely exists. The last time these longtime rivals were both unbeaten in conference play when they met came back on Nov.2, 2002, when they were both 3-0 in the Big East. I'm going to grab the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET.

The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.

Michigan State is coming off a 31-13 win at Rutgers. The offense has been sparked throughout the season by freshman RB Kenneth Walker III, who leads the nation in rushing with 913 yards (7.1 YPC) and nine TDs. QB Peyton Thorne has provided more than just a little stability, completing 62.4% for 1,575 yards with 14 TDs to two INTs. The offense is averaging 36.7 PPG (27th) with excellent balance, passing for 26.9 YPG and rushing for 219.2 YPG. The defense allows just 19.3 PPG (27) but there may be a concern in the fact that the stop-unit is also allowing 420.4 YPG (94th!).

Michael Penix Jr suffered a separated AC joint in his throwing shoulder during Indiana's 24-0 loss at Penn State on Oct 2 and is not likely to play in this one. Jack Tuttle, who went 1-1 as a starter last season and has passed for 564 yards and 3 TDs in three seasons at Indiana, will likely play. Honestly, the Hoosiers may be better off without Penix in the short term. The running game has shown little, averaging 127.2 PPG (100th) and the offense is scoring a modest 23.8 PPG (99th). The defense checks in allowing 28.2 PPG (90th).

So why take the Hoosiers? MSU has had a very favorable schedule so far, getting wins against four underachievers in 2021 like Northwestern, Miami-Fl, Nebraska and Rutgers. The team is on the road for the second straight week with a bye on tap and then it's the team's "Game of the Year" at home vs Michigan on Oct 30. Naturally, the last thing MSU wants is to be coming off a loss heading into the Michigan game but I believe the Spartans are vulnerable here. Indiana is a MUCH better team than it's shown and has played the more difficult schedule. Michigan State has beaten Indiana in 10 of the past 12 meetings but lost at home 24-0 to Indiana last season. 17 starters are back from that Indiana team and the Hoosiers are coming off a bye week. This a HUGE game for Indiana's season and it's Homecoming! I'm telling you, the Michigan St defense can be had! This home dog may just 'bark' VERY loudly on Saturday. Take the points. 

 
Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET.

Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games.

To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10.

Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th).

Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET.

Brady Hoke coached SD State in 2009 and 2010, leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 season in 2010, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. He left for Michigan but after an 11-2 season in 2011, things fell apart quickly. He was fired after four seasons, going 6-10 in the Big Ten his last two seasons. He would wind up back at SD State as an assistant under Rocky Long and took over for Long when he retired after the 2019 season. Hoke's first season back was 2020's COVID season and the Aztecs went just 4-4, ending a run of 10 straight bowl appearances that had started with Hoke's 2010 team. SD State was expected to contend for the MWC title in 2021 but the team's 5-0 start (entered top-25 two weeks ag0) is somewhat of a surprise.

The Aztecs will play on the road the next two weeks, at San Jose St this Friday and at Air Force on Oct 23. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. A 37-31 win over New Mexico State followed but last Saturday, the Spartans fell behind early at Colorado St and was never really in the game in a 32-14 loss.

SD St is led offensively by a running game that averages 241.4 YPG (13th) on 5.3 YPC. Greg Bell has 520 yards rushing (5.5 YPC and five TDs). Both Brookshire (47.4% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) and Johnson (53.7% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) have played at QB. Neither has been effective, as SD St averages 128.8 YPG passing to rank 125th in the nation. The team's leading receiver (Bellinger) has seven catches, although he is averaging 23.3 YPC. Running the ball and a stout defense has been the key for SD State, with the Aztecs allowing 16.6 PPG (16th) on 270.4 YPG (6th).

Spartans QB Starkel played very well in 2020 (17 TDs / 7 INTs) but has flopped in 2021 (50.4% with 6 TDs and 5 INTs). Sophomore Nick Nash replaced him against New Mexico St and helped lead the Spartans to the win, completing 15 of 18 for 193 yards with three TDs (0 INTs). He was just 11 of 22 for 154 yards vs CSU but did have two TD passes (one INT). He looks like the best choice now. RB Tyler Nevens ran for 515 yards on 7.8 YPC in eight games last season and has 406 on 5.5 YPC after six games in 2020. The San Jose St defense is allowing 23.8 PPG on 369.5 PPG (rank 63rd in each category).

I believe that SD St is getting a little too much credit here and as noted above, has a 'testing' two-game stretch in which the Aztecs will have to be cautious to not get caught "looking ahead" to their game at Air Force next weekend (5-1 as of this writing). Sure SD State is the better defensive team but I will note that the Spartans did force CSU into settling for SIX field goals last weekend.

This is just SD State's SECOND road game this season, winning 38-14 at Arizona. FYI...The Wildcats are 0-5 in 2021 and are currently on a 17-game losing streak! Maybe not a SU win but the TD or more in points sure looks 'juicy!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pac-12 Game of the Year is on Utah at 8:00 ET.

A pair of teams with disappointing starts to their respective 2021 seasons square off in the LA Coliseum on Saturday night, as the 2-2 Utah Utes visit the 3-2 USC Trojans. Utah was ranked 24th in the AP's preseason poll and USC was ranked 15th. However, Utah has lost to both of the quality teams it has played in the early going, falling 26-17 at BYU (snapped a nine-game winning streak over its longtime rival) and 33-31 in OT at San Diego St. Yes, BYU is ranked 10th and SD State just moved into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday but there is NO overlooking that the Utes check in at 0-4 ATS.

USC comes in 3-2 after last weekend's 37-14 victory at Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. However, the Trojans have surely had their ups and downs in 2021. They lost 42-28 at home vs Stanford as an 18-point favorite, a loss that cost Clay Helton his job. Taking over is Donte Williams (first-ever head coaching job) and he lost his second game, 45-27 against Oregon St, again at home and again as a sizeable favorite of 10 points. Something tells me Williams will be 'looking over his shoulder' all season, as rumors abound that USC is looking for a "big name" head coach. Can you say Urban Meyer. 

Utah had hoped for big things from Charlie Brewer, who came from Baylor where he had 65 TDs and 28 INTs. However, he was benched during the SD St loss, with Cameron Rising going 19 of 32 for 153 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Rising started in the 24-13 win over Washington St but was just a modest 13 of 23 for 137 yards. However, he didn't throw a TD pass and he's thrown 55 passes without an INT the last two games. He's the better choice these days and the Utah defense is solid, allowing 302.3 YPG (25th) and 22.3 PPG. Utah's defensive strength is its pass D, allowing 163.5 YPG to rank 13th.

USC is no longer called "Tailback U," as the Trojans are now a passing team. That's the case again in 2021 with Kedon Slovis completing 64.6% for 1,118 yards but he has a modest seven TD passes with four INTs. WR London leads the nation with 48 catches, grabbing four TDs. RB Ingram is solid (359 yards on 5.8 YPC) but the team's average of 137.4 YPG on the ground ranks only 91st. The USC defense allows 24.4 PPG (70th) on 361.4 YPG (61st).

Utah is in a very good spot here, having last week off and despite its 2-2 start, is 1-0 in Pac 12 play. USC has lost its last two home games (SU as big double-digit favorites), while allowing a combined 87 points! USC is off next weekend and then plays Notre Dame in one of the nation's biggest (if not THE biggest) intersectional rivalries.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has led Utah to 13 bowls in 15 years (10-3), before the school declined to play in a bowl last year (COVID). He squares off against a VERY inexperienced head coach plus brings a 12-2 ATS record as a road dog into this contest going back to 2014. Meanwhile, USC comes in 8-14 as a home favorite since 2017. I'm calling for the SU win but of course, take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on LSU at 7:30 ET.

Joe Burrow elevated Ed Orgeron to the status coaching 'genius' in 2019, leading LSU to one of CFB's best-ever single seasons. The 2019 Tigers would go 15-0 (11-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 48.4 PPG-to-21.9 PPG. However, LSU fell to 5-5 in COVID's 2020 season, while averaging 32.0 PPG and allowing 34.9 PPG. LSU opened the current season with a 38-27 loss at UCLA, before winning home games over McNeese ST (34-7) and Central Michigan (49-21). LSU picked up an impressive 28-25 win at Miss St on the final Saturday of September (lead 28-10 in the mid-4th quarter) but then blew a 13-point lead at home in a 24-19 loss to Auburn this past Saturday. The Tigers are now on the road this Saturday at Kentucky.

How 'bout dem Wildcats! Kentucky held off then-No. 10 Florida last Saturday, winning 20-13 at home. It marked Kentucky's first home win over the Gators since 1986 and catapulted the Wildcats into the AP top-25 for the first time this year at No. 16. Kentucky has started 5-0 for just the third time in its last 35 years, with two of those perfect starts coming under head coach Mark Stoops. Stoops led Kentucky to a 5-0 start in 2018 and the Wildcats finished 10-3, including a 27-24 Citrus Bowl win over No. 13 Penn St.

QB Max Johnson has thrown for 1,469 yards (62.45 completions / 16 TDs and 4 INTs) but gets almost NO help from an LS+U running game producing a pathetic 70.8 YPG (128th) on 2.4 YPC. Johnson has one of the nation's best WRs in Boutte, who has 30 receptions and an FBS-high nine TD grabs! The LSU defense is about average, allowing 23.0 PPG (59th) on 369.6 YPG (67th). However, it's quite an improvement over last year's unit which allowed 34.9 PPG on 492.0 YPG!

Kentucky QB Will Levis completes 61.2% for 989 yards with eight TDs but also six INTs. The running game ranks 36th, averaging 191.0 YPG, led by Rodriguez (612 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). However, it's the Kentucky defense that leads the way, allowing 16.8 PPG (21st) on 284.6 YPG (12th). That Wildcat D came up HUGE last Saturday, as Florida had 1st and goal opportunities two times and failed to tie it up EIGHT in eight tries!

Here's the 'dope.' The Kentucky offense left MUCH to be desired vs Florida, converting just one of nine third downs, gaining just 224 yards, as Levis completed just seven passes in 17 attempts for 87 yards. At 3-2, this is a HUGE game for LSU. These two haven’t met since 2014 and LSU has won SIX of the last seven meetings. LSU is 10-3 SU & ATS vs the SEC East while Kentucky is just 1-9 SU against SEC West foes, excluding Miss St (annual Egg Bowl opponent). Take the points. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big 12 Game of the Week is on TCU at 7:00 ET.

2-2 TCU takes on 4-1 Texas Tech Saturday in Lubbock. TCU head coach Garry Patterson is in his 21st season with the Horned Frogs and has accrued some legacy. He's led TCU to 16 bowls in his first 20 seasons (a 17th appearance was canceled in 2020) and he's posted 11 seasons of 10-plus wins. From 2008-11 (a four-year span), TCU went 47-5, including 13-0 in 2010. TCU had 12-1 seasons in 2009 and 2014. However, the team entered this season on a three-year run of just 18-17.

Texas Tech's Matt Wells ins in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. However, the Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons. That's changed in 2021, as Tech has opened 4-1.

The Horned Frogs opened 2-0 but then lost 42-34 to rival SMU on Sep 25 and followed with a hard-fought 32-27 last Saturday against Texas (note: TT lost 70-35 to Texas!). QB Max Duggan (63.2% for 899 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 143 rushing yards and two TDs) leads a well-balanced offense. TCU is averaging 197.0 YPG rushing, led by Zach Evans (443 yards on 7.8 YPC with 3 TDs). The offense is averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) but the defense is not a strength like in years past, allowing 27.3 PPG (85th) on 397.3 YPG (83rd).

Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough will be out for several more weeks with a broken collarbone, so Henry Colombi, who has filled in the last two games, will again get the start. He entered in the 70-35 loss to Texas and passed for 324 yards with three TDs (one INT). He was 23 of 34 for 266 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in last Saturday's 23-20 upset at West Va. Texas Tech's defense struggles much like TCU's (that 70 points vs Texas won't go away), allowing 30.8 PPG (102nd).

Tech's 23-20 victory at West Virginia last week helped Texas Tech chase away the aftertaste of a 70-35 loss at Texas the week before, while TCU is in a different kind of mood after its comeback bid against the Longhorns fizzled in a 32-27 setback last week. "We can't feel sorry for ourselves," Max Duggan said. "Going in two weeks straight with a loss is going to suck, but nobody is going to feel bad for us. Texas Tech isn't going to feel sorry for us."

After their big road win in West Virginia, I think a bit of a letdown is in order here for the Red Raiders, while conversely, after back-to-back losses, this one absolutely "means more" to the hungry Horned Frogs. Note that TCU last lost THREE games in a row back in 2018, while Texas Tech is on a 1-6 ATS slide off an ATS win.

This showdown is dubbed "The Battle for the Saddle" and expect for TCU to 'ride away' with it on Saturday.

Good luck...Larry

The third play of my STP is an 8* on Southern Miss at 7:00 ET.

Remember the days when Southern Miss went to 11 bowls from 1997-2008, winning SEVEN? More recently, the Golden Eagles went 12-0 in 2011 but then 0-12 in 2012, followed by 1-11 and 3-9 seasons. From 2015 through 2019 the school went 'bowling' FOUR times but then went 3-7 in 2021. That's the situation Will Hall stepped into in 2021, getting his first head coaching gig. Southern Miss has opened 1-4 this season, with the lone win coming 37-0 over Grambling.

Southern Miss welcomes UTEP to Hattiesburg on Saturday and the Miners check in at a surprising 4-1. I say surprising for a reason, this marks head coach Dana Dimel's fourth season at El Paso and the Miners were 1-11, 1-11 and 3-5 in his first three. I'm not sure that UTEP is NOT doing it with mirrors. The fact that it's 3-0 at home helps, as UTEP's 30-3 win at New Mexico St back on Aug 28 was a shocker. I say that because the Miners entered that road contest just 3-26 on the road since the start of the 2016 season.

Southern Miss showed a lot of fight in last week's 24-19 loss at Rice, as freshman QB Jack Lange took over and threw for 304 yards and a TD (his three picks were the difference-maker). However, a check of the history book reveals that Southern Miss has outgained UTEP in ALL 10 meetings between the schools as C-USA members and by an average of almost 200 YPG (188 to be exact!). UTEP is a 'phony' 4-1 team and Southern Miss exposes just that in this contest.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on San Jose St at 3:30 ET.

San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans then bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. Last weekend against New Mexico State, SJSU earned a 37-31 win, led by 193 yards passing and three TDs from QB Nick Nash, while RB Tyler Nevens had 22 carries for 115 yards and a TD.

Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and has opened 1-3 this season. The Rams began with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that!

CSU had last Saturday off but I don't think it will help much here against a San Jose St team that is NOT as good as it was last season but is significantly better than this Colorado St team. The Spartans are a small underdog but this will NOT be called an upset! If Vandy can win here (ending an 11-game slide), why not SJSU!

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd play of my STP is an 8* on UMass at 3:30 ET.

Connecticut was 1-11 in 2018 and 2-10 in 2019, before deciding not to play in 2020. The Huskies returned for 2021 and have opened 0-6 SU but one could argue they are improving, UConn opened 0-3 ATS but has gone 3-0 ATS its last three games, including a 24-22 loss to Wyoming (as a 31.5-point dog) and 30-28 to Vandy (as a 14.5-point dog).

UMass was off a 1-11 season in 2019 and initially decided not to play in 2020. The school changed its mind but shouldn't have bothered, as the Minutemen went 0-4 losing by scores of 41-0, 51-10, 24-2 and 45.0. Like UConn, UMass has yet to win in 2021, going 0-5. However, while UConn has been competitive its last two, UMass's closest margin of defeat has been a 14-point loss to Eastern Michigan.

UConn looks like the slightly better team but I just can't trust them laying points on the road. UConn scores just 16.5 PPG (125th), while allowing 39.7 PPG (125th). It's  much the same with UMass, which is averaging 14.6 PPG (128th) and allowing 47.2 PPG (130th). I HAVE to go with the home team here, against a UConn team that's 3-23 SU on the road going back to the start of 2016 an is laying points in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Rutgers at 12:00 ET.

The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 5-0 start, the Spartans are now knocking at the door for a top-10 ranking (moved up to No. 11 in the AP's poll last Sunday). Michigan St visits Piscataway, NJ at "high noon" on Saturday, taking on 3-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' head coach is Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the school. Schiano led Rutgers to SIX bowls in a seven-year span (2005-2011), winning his last five bowls, before taking over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. He went 7-9 and 4-12 and THAT was THAT. He returned to Rutgers in the COVID year of 2020 and went 3-6.

The question looms, is Mich St really a top-10 team? QB Payton Thorne is completing 63.1% for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. the running game is averaging 210.8 YPG (24th), led by the nation's leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who has 680 yards on 6.8 YPC (136.0 YPG). He's got nine TDs, eight rushing. WR Jayden Reed has 20 catches for 468 yards (23.1 YPC) and five TDs. Reed leads all major-college players in all-purpose yardage, with 176.6 per game. He has caught at least one TD pass in the last four games and he's returned a punt for a touchdown in two consecutive games. Throw in a Michigan St defense that's allowing just 20.6 PPG (39th) and maybe the answer is yes, the Spartans are that good!

That said, beware of Rutgers. If one just looks at last Saturday's 52-13 loss last Saturday at Ohio St, you could be missing something. Rutgers' defense was shredded for 541 yards and failed to produce a takeaway for the third straight game. Ohio State led 45-6 at halftime. Yes, Rutgers can't play with Ohio St (Buckeyes have scored at least 49 points in EIGHT straight wins) but look at the team's first four games. Rutgers opened 3-0 and then played Michigan (5-0 start and has NEVER trailed all season) even in a 20-13 loss. The defense held Michigan to just 275 total yards, including 112 rushing yards (Wolverines have averaged 255.0 YPG on the ground for the season). Rutgers doesn't have the skill position players on offense that Michigan St does but I believe Rutgers has the BETTER defense.

A closer look at the Spartans' D shows that while it has allowed 20.3 PPG, it has also allowed 428.8 YPG (101st). Maybe Rutgers' QB Vedral (66.7% for 914 yards) with six TDs and three INTs (all three picks came vs Ohio St!) plus RB Pacheco (267 yards on 3.8 YPC with 3 TDs) can have success here at home. Getting back to the Rutgers' D, despite the horrific effort vs Ohio St, Rutgers is still allowing 21.2 PPG (42nd) on 320.2 YPG (40th). Prior to the Ohio St contest and INCLUDING the game vs Michigan, Rutgers had allowed 13.5 PPG on 265.0 YPG.

Referring to the Ohio St game, Greg Schiano said he wants that loss to sting. "I hope we can't put it behind us that quickly," he said. "That wasn't a great outing, so we have to get to work and that's what we did. Hopefully, those kinds of things fuel you a little bit and get you cranking here early in the week." The Scarlet Knights took the Wolverines "down to the wire," and this is exactly the same sort of competitive affair that I expect to see from Rutgers here as well, after the back-to-back losses. Upset Alert? I think so but of course, take the points.

Good luck...Larry

The third play of my STP is an 8* on Mississippi State at 7:00 ET

Texas A&M had won NINE straight over Arkansas but head coach Jimbo Fisher's Aggies are licking their wounds after being pushed around in a 20-10 loss to Arkansas last Saturday. A&M had opened 3-0 but the school's first loss dropped them to No. 15 in the AP poll. "We did not play well, consistently," Fisher said this week about the loss to the Razorbacks. "As I always try to say, it's doing ordinary things better, becoming more fundamentally sound in how we do things and becoming much more consistent." A&M is back home on Saturday and set to host 2-2 Mississippi St, led by head coach Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have played some tough competition already. They managed a 35-34 win over Louisiana Tech in its opener, by scoring the game's final 21 points. They then won at home 24-10 over NC State, before a tough 31-29 loss at Memphis. A 28-25 home loss to LSU last weekend has Miss St at 2-2.

A Mike Leach offense always centers around its QB and Will Rogers is filling the bill. He's completing 75.1% for 1,454 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. However, the running game adds just just 62.8 YPG (129th) on 3.3 YPC. On the A&M side, backup QB Zach Calzada took over for injured starter Haynes King (broken right leg) earlier this season and the sophomore signal caller struggled against the physical Arkansas defense, finishing with just 151 passing yards and an interception in the loss. One way for Fisher to protect Calzada is to run the football more effectively with RBs Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane. The two combined to average 5.3 yards a carry against Arkansas. On the season, A&M is averaging 169.3 YPG (57th). Defense is A&M's strength though, as the Aggies are allowing only 9.3 PPG (9th) on 291.5 YPG (23rd).

The Bulldogs had a 29-14 FD edge last week vs LSU but gave up two long pass TDs, falling behind 21-3 (lost by just a FG). The schools have met 14 times and while A&M has won two straight, the series is tied 7-7. Mississippi State has twice knocked off a ranked Texas A&M team in recent years, beating No. 16 Texas A&M in 2018 and the No. 7 Aggies in 2016, although both games were played in  Starkville.

A&M figures to bounce back from last week's loss but don't be too sure. I like the Bulldogs to keep this one competitive, keeping the score much closer than expected. Grab the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UAB at 7:00 ET.

Hugh Freeze was 10-2 in a one-year stint at Arkansas St, which he used as a springboard to get the job at Ole miss. However, his stay ended amid recruiting and academic violations. He resurfaced at Liberty in 2019 and led the Flames to a 8-5 season, including a Cure Bowl win. Then came last year's 10-1 team that capped its season with a second straight Cure Bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team. Liberty opened the current season 3-0 and were on the cusp of breaking into the AP top-25 but lost 24-21 at Syracuse last Saturday. The Orange kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal with no time on the clock, using a late turnover to set up the game-winner.

UAB returned to FBS play in 2017 and entered this season with a 34-16 record. The Blazers opened with an easy win over Jacksonville St (neutral field) but then got crushed at Georgia, 56-7. However, the team has won back-to-back road games since, at North Texas and Tulane. UAB gets its first home game of the season in brand new Protective Stadium (more in a bit).

Liberty is led by QB QB Malik Willis. He passed for 2,260 yards (20-6 ratio) plus ran for 944 yards (6.7 YPC / 14 TDs) last year and has opened well again this year, with 818 passing yards (10-0 ratio) plus 274 rushing yards (5.4 YPC with 4 TDs). Ironically, it was his fumble with under four minutes to go, which led to St0yracuse's game-winning FG. The Flames rush for 184.0 YPG (48th) and their defense is STRONG, allowing 15.3 PPG (14th) on 251.8 YPG 98th).

Tyler Johnston Opened as the Blazers' starting QB but threw three INTs in the blowout loss to Georgia. Dylan Hopkins replaced him during the North Texas win, completing 6 of 7 for 202 yards and three TDs. Hopkins started for just the sixth time in his career last Saturday at Tulane, completing 18-for-26 for 240 yards and three more TD passes. UAB has a pair of solid RBs in McBride (282 yards / 5.4 YPC) and Brown (221 yards / 4.4 YPC). UAB's defense is better than average, allowing 20.8 PPG (51st) on 326.5 YPG (48th).

However, the bottom line is this. Liberty's loss at Syracuse was a real downer and the Flames have to shake that off here, against a very good UAB team that is playing its first home game of the season in the school's brand new Protective Stadium.  All UAB has done in home games since its 2017 'rebirth' is go 21-1 SU and 15-5-2 ATS.

Liberty's flame is snuffed out here, as the Blazers win comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

The second play of my STP is an 8* on Washington State a t ET.

A couple of 1-3 teams collide here with Cal coming in as a solid home favorite over Washington St (more in a bit). Both teams have struggled defensively, with the Cougars allowing 29.8 PPG (99th) and Cal allowing 29.3 PPG (93rd). The Washington St defense allows 415.0 YPG (94th) and the Cal defense 417.8 YPG (96th)

Both teams saw potential Pac-12 victories slip through their grasp last weekend. Cal was down seven points in OT in the extra session and drove to the Washington two-yard line, where Damien Moore fumbled at the goal line, preventing the Golden Bears from potentially either tying the score with a PAT or going for the road win with a two-pointer. As for Washington St, the Cougars  held a 13-10 lead into the final five minutes at Utah before giving up two late scores in a 24-13 defeat.

The home team has won the last five meetings in the 102-year-old rivalry and Cal may be slightly the better team on paper but Cal is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite and more notably, 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite under head coach Justin Wilcox. Give the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Ball State at 5:00 ET.

Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights have opened 4-0 here in 2021 but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that their four opponents are a combined 3-13 (.188) SU to open the current season. Ball St has opened 1-3, which is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as the Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. The Cardinals lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie).

It's no surprise that Army comes in averaging 344.5 YPG rushing (No. 2 in the nation, averaging 5.2 YPC with 17 rushing TDs. QB Anderson is the team's leading rusher 431 yards on 7.4 YPC and 5 TDs) with Robinson being the most productive RB (215 yards on 11.3 YPC). Anderson has attempted just 15 passes with three TDs and zero INTs (for only 187 yards). The best thing Army's defense has is that the offense controls the clock by 'eating' yards and time off the clock, while 'coughing up' just one turnover. The Army D checks in allowing 19.0 PPG (38th) on 277.8 YPG (16th).

The 'trick' for Ball St will be to move the ball and keep Army from dominating the game with its rushing attack. Easier said than done but I think Ball St is capable of a breakout performance in this one. QB Plitt is completing 61.2% but for only 614 yards in four games (two TDs / three INTs). That compares to him throwing for 2,164 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs in just eight games last season. In 2019, he threw for 2,918 yards with 24 TDs and seven INTs. He's WAAY better than he's looked so far. I noted Army's recent success up top but being favored on the road is not something Army has seen much of. The Black Knights have been a road favorite just SEVEN times in the last five seasons, going 4-3 SU and ATS. Army has next weekend off and then plays three straight important opponents, Wisconsin, Wake Forest (off to a 4-0 start) and  Air Force (3-1 start).

Upset alert? Just maybe but be sure to take the points, remembering Army's opponents so far are a combined 3-13!

Good luck...Larry

The first play of my STP is an 8* on Texas Tech at 3:30 ET.

Texas Tech opened the season 3-0 but then allowed 70 points (on 639 yards) in a 70-35 loss at Texas last Saturday. Starting QB Tyler Slough (an Oregon transfer) broke his left collarbone last week and will be out for at least six week. Stepping in was Henri Colombi, who threw for 324 yards with TD throws of 40, 69 and 75 yards. Columbi will get his first start of 2021 in this contest and will surely be confident, after he made a start in 2020 at home against West Va last season, completing 22 of 28 for 169 yards with a TD pass, a TD run and no INTs in a 34-37 win. 

West Va won five straight in this series from 2014-2018 but Texas Tech has won and covered the last two. West Va has a vet QB in Doege (62.4% for 889 yards with a 6-4 ratio) and a quality RB in Brown (321 yards on 4.9 YPC with 5 TDs) and does come in having gone 7-0 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. West Va does have a HUGE defensive edge, allowing 16.8 PPG to Tech's 33.5 but last week's results, set up an interesting situation.

While Tech was blown out by Texas, West Va took highly-ranked Oklahoma to the wire in a 16-13 loss. The Sooners won the contest on a game-winning FG on the game's final play. The Sooners haven't come close to looking like a top-10 team and I believe are overrated. Meanwhile, despite losing by five TDs, Tech gained 520 yards on Texas. The Red Raiders are just 1-10 SU on the road since the start of the 2019 season but I'm expecting a let down by West Va off the Oklahoma game and WANT the points with Texas Tech.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye Opener is on Michigan (12:00 EST).

Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers have already lost TWICE, and fallen out of the top-25. Wisconsin is NOT alone. In fact, the list is pretty long of preseason top-25 teams no longer in the latest rankings (Sep 26). No. 7 Iowa St, No. 10 North Carolina, No. 14 Miami-Fl, No. 15 USC, No. 16 LSU, No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Washington, No. 21 Texas, No. 23 ULL, No. 24 Utah and No. 26 ASU, also join Wisconsin. That's a "baker's dozen" of 13 teams!

Meanwhile, coming off a 2-4 COVID-19 shortened season in which Michigan was just 2-4, many were surprised that Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh survived. In fact, he's done more than just survive, as his Wolverines have opened 4-0 and are currently ranked No. 14. How about this for a stat. Michigan has opened 4-0 (and has yet to be behind in any game so far), for the first time since 1973! Michigan gained 789 rushing yards in 2020's six games (131.5 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but has already run for 1,163 through its first four games of 2021, an average of 290.8 YPG on 6.3 YPC). RB Corum has 475 yards (6.9 YPC and 7 TDs) and fellow RB Haskins has 322 yards (5.3 YPC and 6 TDs). QB McNamara has thrown for a modest 534 yards and three TDs but has yet to be intercepted in 53 attempts. Michigan's D is allowing just 11.8 PPG (4th) on 303.3 YPG (32nd).

Wisconsin's 41-13 loss at Soldier Field last Saturday against Notre Dame was deceiving, as the Badgers led 13-10 in the early 4th quarter, before the Irish scored the game's final 31 points (one score came a 96-yard KO return and two more on INT returns). However, what's not deceiving is that in its two 'tests' in September, the Badgers have scored just THREE points in the 4th quarter of each game. Remember QB Graham Mertz completing 20 of 21 for 248 yards with 5 TDs in his first-ever start (Oct 27 of 2020)? Metz is unrecognizable these days, throwing FOUR interceptions against Notre Dame. The Wisconsin offense has scored just 23 points vs Penn St and Notre Dame and as noted, Michigan's D has been terrific. Wisconsin imploded in the fourth quarter last weekend, finishing just 1 of 14 overall on third downs while also posting a whopping five turnovers.

Wisconsin's D has been excellent, as Notre Dame's defense and special teams scored 21 of the 41 points last Saturday and is allowing just 210.3 YPG, ranking 2nd in the nation. However, Wisconsin will need to bring its "A game" vs Michigan and I don't see that happening against a rejuvenated Michigan team. Could this be the year Harbaugh finally beats Ohio St? I'm getting ahead of myself. Go Big Blue!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET.

Minnesota hired PJ Fleck off his excellent run at Western Michigan (remember the 'Row the Boat' team of 2017 that went 12-0 before losing in the Cotton Bowl?).In his second season with the gophers, Minnesota went 7-6 after a bowl win and then in 2019, went 11-2 with a bowl win that left them 10th in the final polls. 2020 was a tough year for all (3-4) and Minnesota has opened just 2-2 here in 2021. The Gophers visit Purdue, coming off the worst FBS over FBS upset since 2012 last week, losing 14-10 as a 31-point favorite to Bowling Green. Things CAN'T get worse from here, right?

Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and moved to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. Purdue takes a 3-1 record into this game, losing only 27-13 at now-No. 9 Notre Dame.

Tanner Morgan has played well at times for the Gophers the last few seasons but was just PUTRID vs Bowling Green, completing 5 of 13 for 59 yards with two INTs and a lost fumble. However, RB Treyson Potts, ran for 141 yards and has 474 yards on the season (4.9 YPC / five TDs). The defense has held its own, allowing 21.3 PPG (55th) on 272.8 YPG (14th). However, winning the defensive battle against Purdue won't be easy, as the Boilermakers are allowing 14.3 PPPG (8th) on 301.0 YPG (29th). QB Plummer has completed 69.5% for 840 yards with seven TDs and no INTs but Brohm benched him one series into the third quarter last week. Aidan O'Connell entered and later guided the team 94 yards on 10 plays to score the game's lone touchdown in the fourth quarter of an unimpressive 13-9 win over Illinois. O'Connell completed 6 of 8 passes for 89 yards on the game-winning drive, including a 14-yard TD pass with 5:44 left. Brohm has declined to name a starter for Saturday.

The Boilermakers are off to their best start since 2012 and are on the cusp of going 2-0 in league play for the first time since 2010. All this, despite losing their top-two running RBs to injuries along with their top receiver, David Bell (21 catches with three TDs), who was in concussion protocol against Illinois and his status here is up in the air. Getting back to that running game, Purdue is averaging 92.5 YPG on 2.9 YPC!

Here's the bottom line. I like Minnesota to bounce back off that humbling loss to Bowling Green and why not? After all, the Gophers have won SEVEN of the last eight against Purdue, including the last time the team met here at Purdue (2019), when Morgan completed 21 of 22 for 396 yards and four TDs (how's that for a confidence-builder). This seems like a GREAT spot to take Minnesota, as Purdue has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six Ben Ten games. Minnesota gets the outright win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on BYU at 9:00 ET.

BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. Jaren Hall beat out Baylor Romney for the starting QB job and had BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson). Hall led the Cougars to a 3-0 start, passing for 561 yards (7 TDs / 2 INTs) plus ran for 166 yards (8.3 YPC). However, Hall took a hit with about a minute remaining in BYU's  win over ASU and it was more serious than at first reported. Romney got the start last Saturday vs USF and threw for 305 yards and three TDs. At 4-0, BYU is now ranked 13th in the current AP poll.

Utah St opened 3-0 (also 3-0 ATS), starting with three straight wins for the first time since 1978. QB Logan Bonner (959 passing yards / 7 TDs / 5 INTs) helps lead an offense averaging 533.3 YPG (10th), and is aided by a strong running game (213.5 YPG). However, the Aggies' defense is a liability, allowing 463.3 YPG (121st) and 29.8 PPG (101st).

Whether it's Hall or Romney at QB, I like BYU and its defense, which is allowing 19.3 PPG. The BYU defense got overlooked last year as well, with Wilson leading an offense that averaged 43.5 PPG (Note: the Cougars' D allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2020). BYU is 16-4 SU vs Utah St since 1994 and when the Aggies 'stepped up in class' last week vs Boise St, the offense managed just THREE points, with Bonner completing only 11 of 25 for 173 yards with two INTs. Yes, Utah St is at home vs BYU (played at Boise St), but the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Cougars roll.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* CFB Game of the Week is on Virginia at 7:30 ET.

Virginia and Miami are both 2-2 but this is the ACC opener for Miami, UVA has beaten William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14, while losing to ACC rivals North Carolina 59-39 (allowed 699 yards!) and 37-17 to Wake Forest (Demon Deacons are 4-0).  As for Miami, the 'Canes have lost 44-13 to Alabama at a neutral site and 38-17 to Mich St at home. Miami 'escaped; at home 25-23 over Appalachian St (on a FG with about two minutes left) and then routed Central Connecticut St 69-0 (should that even count?).

Bronco Mendenhall led BYU to 11 bowls in 11 seasons and after a 2-10 season in his first year at UVA, led the Cavs to three straight bowls before 2020's 5-5 finish. The ACC Coastal was considered wide-open in 2021 but the Cavs are pretty much out of it, after an 0-2 start. UVA has a very talented QB in Brennan Armstrong, who has thrown for 1,705 yards, 13 TDs and three INTs (UVA is No. 1 in the nation, averaging 403.5 YPG). However, the ground game is averaging only 114.8 YPG (110th) and the team doesn't have a RB with 100 yards on the season, after FOUR games.

Unlike UVA, Miami was ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but has joined 12 other preseason top-25 teams that are no longer ranked, before October. The 'Canes have a talented dual-threat QB in D'Eriq King. He has passed for 767 yards (3 TDs / 4 INTs) but has just 96 yards rushing. He has greatly underachieved, as Miami was able to score just 30 points (15.0 PPG) in games vs Alabama and Mich St. King missed Miami’s win over Central Connecticut State, an FCS program, last Saturday due to a shoulder injury he sustained during the Hurricanes’ loss Michigan State the previous weekend. He is among multiple starters who are questionable for UM’s ACC-opener versus Virginia on Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium.

Second-year freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke started against Central Connecticut State while splitting reps with true freshman Jake Garcia. Van Dyke went 10 of 11 for 270 yards and three TDs in his first start at the collegiate level, while Garcia went 11 of 14 for 147 yards and two TDs, and had a 45-yard run in his first college game. “First we’re trying to see D’Eriq’s availability,” head coach Manny Diaz said when asked about UM’s quarterback situation versus the Cavaliers. “I mean he’s improving and feeling better every day and was able to move around a little bit [on Monday] so we’ll see where he’s at with that.”

King or no King, I want no part of Miami. I believe UVA behind QB Brennan Armstrong can give Miami's defense fits (it has allowed 41.0 PPG against Alabama and Mich St, while its offense has scored just 15.0 PPG against that duo). Miami is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games and  not counting last Saturday's game vs an FCS school. Miami's been a HUGE underachiever. How did Miami 'earn' a No. 14 preseason ranking? Upset alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Air Force at 8:00 ET.

FAU lost 35-14 at Florida to open the season ('backdoor' cover) but has rebounded with two wins, 38-6 over Ga Southern and 45-14 over Fordham. The Owls are back on the road this Saturday at Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Falcons rolled to back-to-back victories at home against Lafayette (35-14) and 23-3 at Navy to open the season. However, Air Force is in bounce-back mode here after falling 49-45 to Utah State last weekend when RB Calvin Tyler Jr. raced 61 yards for the go-ahead TD with just under four minutes to play to lift Utah State to the win over in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams.

FAU head coach Willie Taggert is in his second season with FAU and his career has mirrored a ping pong game. He starred at Western KY as a QB and began his coaching career at Western Ky in 2010. He's since made stops at USF (four years), Oregon (one year) and two years at FSU. The good news is he has a good QB in N’Kosi Perry has 871 passing yards with 7 TDs and zero INTs. He's a Miami-Fl transfer and seems to like being a BIG 'fish' in 'small' pound. However, the running game averages about 150 YPG less than that of Air Force.

It's no surprise that Air Force averages 327.7 YPG (4th-best in the nation) on 5.2 YPC. QB Daniels showed some passing ability in the loss to Utah St (6 of 12 for 182 yards and one TD) plus is part of variety of players who contribute to the running game. Three players topped 100 yards rushing last Saturday (including Daniels) and on the season, WR Davis has run for 146 yards (10.7 YPC) with three rushing TDs.

In stark contrast to Taggert, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season.

Tough spot for FAU traveling cross-country to play in altitude, facing a strong home team coming off a late-game loss last Saturday. Air Force comes in 22-8 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Lay the points and EXPECT a decisive Air Force victory!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Indiana at 8:00 ET.

Indiana head coach Tom Allen has made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2010 and 2018, he's led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana opened the season ranked 17th (the school's first top-25 preseason appearance since 1968), However, Indiana hasn't gotten off to the start it wanted in 2021. That said, Indiana's two losses have come against No. 5 Iowa (34-6) and No. 8 Cincinnati (38-24). In between, the Hoosiers hammered Idaho 56-14.

Western Kentucky has opened 1-1, beating UT-Martin 59-21, before losing a tough one 38-35 at Army. Head coach Tyson Helton is in just his third season at Bowling Green, going 9-4 with a bowl win in 2019 and 5-7 with a bowl loss in 2020. The Hilltoppers are led by QB Bailey Zappe, a four-year starter at Houston Baptist. Zappe has thrown for 859 yards on the season, with 10 TD passes against only two interceptions (he had a 15-1 ratio last season in four games). An issue for Western Ky moving forward may be the fact that the team has averaged just 75.5 YPG on the ground (3.4 YPC).

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. has uncharacteristically (and admittedly) struggled to open the season. Penix returned healthy to start the season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 202 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and note that Indiana was 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix started at QB and 4-5 when other QBs started under center. Penix has a modest 448 passing yards, four TDs and his SIX interceptions are a Big Ten-high (note: he threw just four INTs in seven games last season).

This will no doubt be a big game for WKU (hosting a Power-5 school) and the Hilltoppers do come in off a "bye week," However, I wonder if the extra week off somehow negatively affects the early chemistry that Zappe has developed with his new teammates. Indiana jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Cincinnati last Saturday but turned the ball over four times and went just 3-of-6 in red zone chances. Overall, the Hoosiers have turned the ball over SEVEN times in three games, with ALL seven turnovers coming in its two losses to powerhouses Cincinnati and Iowa.

I'm not ready to discount Indiana just yet. Look closer at the team's defensive numbers. The Hoosiers are allowing 28.7 PPG but are allowing only 297.3 YPG (34th). Sure, Indiana travels to No. 6 Penn St next Saturday but there is no way the Hoosiers will overlook Western Ky. A loss here pretty much dooms the Hoosiers' 2021 season. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive victory.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET.

Kansas St and Oklahoma St meet Saturday in Stillwater in the Big 12 opener for each school. Both a 3-0 with the Wildcats looking a little bit better than the Cowboys so far. Kansas State is off a 38-17 home win over Nevada last Saturday, after opening with a neutral site win over Stanford (24-7) and an unimpressive home win over Southern Illinois (31-23).

Neither of Kansas St's two QBs, Skyar Thompson or Will Howard have looked overly impressive, However, RB Vaughn has run for 371 yards on 8.0 YPC with five TDs (he rushed for a career-best 218 yards in last Saturday). Oklahoma AB Spencer Sanders is well thought of but so far has underachieved. He missed the season opener and in two games back has been nothing special He was just 6 of 13 for 82 yards at Boise St but he has run for 102 yards in his two games, scoring a rushing TD at Boise. 

Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has led Okie St to 15 straight bowl appearances since then (10-5). His 2011 team was 12-1 (No. 3 finish in the AP poll) and he's produce five other season of 10-plus wins. Chris Klieman had the unenviable task of taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder and after an 8-5 first season, was 4-6 in 2020. 

This will be K-Sate's first true road game and Kieman has yet to beat the Cowboys, falling 26-13 in 2019 and 20-18 in Manhattan last year.  Kansas St has home games vs Oklahoma (No. 4) and Iowa St (No. 14) up next. Could the visitors get caught looking ahead? Oklahoma St is 3-0 but hasn't yet but together an "A effort," as the Cowboys have won their first three games by a total of just 13 points. However, I see one coming. Going back to OSU's 'magical' season of 2011 (see above), the Cowboys are 50-15 SU at Boone Pickens Stadium and they are currently on a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 against teams with winning records, Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Clemson at 3:30 ET.

Nick Saban's success at Alabama is unmatched but in "second-place" is Clemson's Dabo Swinney. He has led Clemson to 10-plus wins in 10 consecutive seasons and the Tigers have made the 'Final 4' in the last six CFP, winning national titles in 2016 and 2018. Clemson is the ONLY team in the country to make the playoff each of the last six years. Of course, Clemson began the season without the record-setting tandem of QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, both of whom were selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the NFL draft last spring. That said, Clemson was still No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll. However, the Tigers were totally shut down in 10-3 to then-No. 5 Georgia (now No. 2) in the season opener. A 49-3 pasting of South Carolina St proved little but a close call last week in a 14-8 victory against upstart Georgia Tech, has 'tongues wagging!' 

Clemson fell to No. 6 in the AP poll after the Georgia loss (first time out of the top-4 since 2017) and after last Saturday's close call vs Ga Tech, Clemson is down to No. 9. The Tigers travel to Raleigh on Saturday to take on the Wolfpack of NC St, who have opened 2-1. However, the two NC St wins have come in home games over USF (45-0) and Furman (45-7), while the Wolfpack lost at Miss St on 9/11, scoring only 10 points vs a Miss St defense that has allowed  34 points (La Tech) and 31 points (Memphis) in its other two games.

These schools had played every year since 1971 until the series was suspended last season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. No. 9 Clemson hopes to continue its recent mastery over North Carolina State on Saturday. The Tigers have won 15 of the last 16 meetings against the Wolfpack, including EIGHT in a row.  Clemson is right around a 10-point road favorite in this one and that may seem high at first glance but note that Clemson has outscored NC State 96-17 in the previous two games (2018 and 2019). OK, DJ Uiagalelei is no Lawrence and has struggled. He's completing only 59.3 percent of his passes for 475 yards with one TD and two INTs. Filling in for Lawrence last season, Uiagalelei passed for 342 yards in his first career start against BC and then followed that by passing for 439 yards at Notre Dame (most passing yards ND has ever allowed to an opposing QB). He finished with 5 TDs and zero INTs in 117 attempts for the season. Where's that guy? Freshman RB Will Shipley has had an instant impact with 168 yards and four TDs the last two games. I'll get to the Clemson defense in a minute.

Devin Leary is completing 67.3% for 754 yards with six TDs and two INTs, while RB Knight has 298 yards on 8.5 YPC. The NC State defense is allowing just 10.3 PPG (5th) on 261.0 YPG (15th) but remember USF and Furman hardly represent quality opposition. The Clemson offense is averaging just 22.0 PPG on 322.7 YPG but that's only because the Tigers scored 49 points vs South Carolina St. Against Georgia and Ga Tech, the Tigers have scored just 17 points! Could this be the year NC State finally gets a "W?"

Not so fast. I'm NOT buying into the belief that the Clemson offense is this inept and I expect a long overdue "breakout" game from Uiagalelei and Co. plus there is NOTHING wrong with the Clemson D. Clemson is allowing 7.0 PPG (2nd) on 266.7 YPG (19th) and the Tigers have the only FBS defense in the nation that has not allowed an offensive TD this season. NC St was unsuccessful moving the ball (and scoring) against the defensively-challenged Miss St D and even here at home, I don't expect them to have much success against Clemson's elite defense.

I look for the Tigers to finally break out offensively and to dominate all phases of the game, as they done for the last 1 1/2-decades against the Wolfpack. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa St at 3:30 ET.

Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years in 2020 and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, defeating Oregon 34-17 (BTW...It was CFB Game of the Year!). Iowa St finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Iowa St was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll but was 'lucky to escape 16-10 over Northern Iowa in its opener and then lost its Cy-Hawk showdown vs Iowa (27-7), before routing a non-competitive UNLV team 48-3.

Matt Rhule led Baylor to an 11-3 season in 2019 but then left for the NFL (Carolina Panthers). Getting his first-ever head coaching job was Dave Aranda, known as a defensive specialist. However, his first season went poorly in 2020's "Season of COVID," as the Bears would go just 2-7 (3-6). However, while 2-1 Iowa St is the ranked team in this matchup (14th), Baylor is the 3-0 team. Then again, the Bears' wins have come over Texas St, Texas Southern and 45-7 over Kansas, which is now a hard-to-believe 5-85 over its last 90 Big 12 games.

Iowa St's two best offensive players are both off to slow starts. QB Brock Purdy (46-18 TD.INT ratio the last two seasons) may be completing 71.4% but he's thrown for a modest 625 yards with three TDs and three INTs. RB Breece Hall, who led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards, while scoring 21 TDs, has run for just 238 yards (4.0 YPC) and four scores. However, the Iowa St defense has been terrific, allowing just 194.0 YPG (No. 1) and 13.3 PPG (14th)

The Baylor defense is allowing 235.0 YPG (8th) and 11.3 PPG (10th) but as noted above, the competition lacks any quality opponents. The offense is averaging 46.7 PPG (5th) on 559.3 YPG (3rd) but again, consider the competition. QB Boharian has thrown for 664 yards with five TDs and zero INTs in 70 attempts. The Bears feature a strong running game (322.3 YPG ranks 5th) with Smith gaining 366 yards (7.8 YPC) and Ebner (317 yards (7.5 YPC).

Baylor dominated this series going 7-2 from 2005-2016 but Iowa St has won THREE of the last four. Some may feel that Iowa St should NOT be this big of a favorite on the road but I disagree. This is Baylor's first real test of 2021 and I say its final grade by game's end will be an "F!" Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Mississippi State at 12:00 ET).

LSU opened the season ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, despite coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-5 season in 2020. That came on the heels of LSU's magical 2019 season win in which the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national championship. The Tigers lost 38-27 at UCLA in their first game but LSU has bounced back with home wins of 34-7 over McNeese St and 49-21 over Central Michigan.

Mike Leach's first season at Starkville was 2020 and he made his SEC coaching debut by shocking defending champion LSU 44-34, as the Bulldogs accumulated an SEC record 632 yards of total offense. However, Miss St won just two more regular season games (over 0-9 Vandy and 5-5 Missouri), before winning the Armed Forces Bowl 28-26 over Tulsa to finish 4-7. Miss St scored 21 points in the last 12 minutes to win 35-34 to open the season against La tech (a comeback that marked the largest in school history) and then won 24-10 at home against NC State. However, the Bulldogs lost 31-29 at Memphis last Saturday (missed a 2-point try with 1 1/2-minutes left) and now hosts the revenge-minded Tigers, who have gone 25-4 SU against them since 1992.

This figures be a 'wild one' between two quality QBs, as LSU averages just 85.7 YPG on the ground (3.0 YPC) and Miss St 45.3 YPG (2.7 YPC). LSU's Johnson has thrown for 864 yards (three games) with 11 TDs and two INTs, while Miss State's Rogers has thrown for 1,093 yards with eight TDs and one INT, after completing a school-and SEC-record 50 passes against Memphis (he had 419 passing yards!).

Sure, LSU is playing with revenge but what do we really know about the Tigers? They are outplayed at UCLA plus what do home wins over McNeese St and Central Michigan mean? Mike Leach loves a good old-fashioned shootout! This is a VERY 'live' home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My Friday Night Lights Play is a 9* on Middle Tenn St at 6:30 ET.

Middle Tennessee State won its opener over Monmouth 50-15 but then fell 27-13 to UTSA this past weekend, after losing 35-14 to Virginia Tech previously. Charlotte opened with two home wins over Duke (31-28) and Gardner-Webb (38-10) but the 49ers are coming off their first loss of 2021, losing 20-9 at Georgia St (BTW...Ga St was my 10* Group of 5 Best of the Best!).

MTSU has nine returning starters on offense and 10 on defense. Both Hockman and Cunningham have played at QB but it looks like Cunningham will be taking over. Head coach Rick Stockstill pulled QB Hockman vs UTSA, after he started just 5-12 for 41 yards (0 TDs / 1 INT). The Blue Raiders trailed 27-0 and Chase Cunningham threw for 150 yards with two TDs and no INTs, as the MTSU offense didn't get going until he entered (too late). Charlotte jumped out to a 7-0 lead against Ga St but was outscored 20-2 the rest of the way, getting held to just 276 total yards.

Somehow Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win) but I'm not even a little impressed with the 49ers. I realize that MTSU is playing a THIRD straight road game but 3rd straight on the road but last year the Blue Raiders upset Troy while playing their 3rd straight road game. In fact, the Blue Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games and 4-1 ATS following a SU loss. Meanwhile, Charlotte is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss.

A loss pretty much derails MTSU's season but a "W' puts them on track for bowl eligibility. Charlotte's defense has been a major issue for the 49ers, who entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes get exposed here. Take the points but this is NOT an upset.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* CFB Week 3 Marquee is on Arizona St at 10:15 ET.

Both Arizona St and BYU have opened 2-0. The Sun Devils haven't really been tested, rolling at home 41-14 over Southern Utah and 37-10 over UNLV. Meanwhile, BYU opened with a 24-16 win in Las Vegas over Arizona and then followed with a 26-17 'Holy War' win over Utah in Provo (ended a 9-game losing streak in the rivalry).

Arizona QB Jayden Daniels is a dual threat and most recently had 125 yards in the win over UNLV. He leads the team in rushing ( 165 yards on 8.7 YPC), as ASU averages 256.0 YPG on the ground, averaging 5.9 YPC. The competition hasn't been stout but the Sun Devil's defense has been terrific, allowing just 12.0 PPG on 189.5 YPG (4th-best in the nation)

BYU surprised all by going 11-1 in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. QB Jaren Hall has BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson) and while he's thrown for a modest 347 yards in two games, he has five TD passes and zero INTs (has also added 128 rushing yards on 9.8 YPC), BYU's defense has allowed a modest 16.5 PPG but has allowed 38.3 YPG, almost 200 yards more per game than ASU's.

I had a HUGE play last Saturday night on BYU in its Holy War' win over Utah (10* Rivalry Best of the Best) but I don't expect lightning to "strike twice" for Hall and BYU here in this "let down" spot for the Cougars off their win over the Utes. ASU is No. 19 and BYU No. 23 but just ONE school will be ranked come Sunday afternoon and that's ASU!

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd play of my STP is on Oklahoma St at 9:00 ET.

I like the 2-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys to pull away down the stretch in this Week 3 matchup.

 Boise State has opened  1-1 but it's a pitiful 123rd in the FBS in averaging only 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. The Cowboys on the other hand concede 3 yards per carry, which ranks 41st in the country.

 The Broncos have looked decent early throwing the ball, averaging 301.5 passing yards per contest, which ranks 23rd in the nation.

However, the Cowboys have been decent in defending the pass in the early going as well, allowing 229 yards passing, which ranks 84th. Boise St QB Hank Bachmeier has been OK, as he has four touchdowns to just one interception but he's not in the class as recent Boise St QBs.

The Cowboys are averaging 244 yards passing per game, which ranks 53rd, and they're also 60th in the FBS in third-down percentage.

QB Shane Illingworth has 315 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception for Oklahoma State.

 The Cowboys won't be taking anything for granted today after two straight close calls. Oklahoma State is 2-0 straight up, but it's 0-2 against the spread. However, I think the Cowboys can build off their 28-23 win over Tulsa last week.

 The Broncos stumbled late against UCF and then hammered UTEP 54-13. Boise St steps up in competition this weekend. and I believe the Broncos will struggle again. Laying points to this Big 12 team is too much to ask. I'm going to grab the points with Oklahoma State.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st play of my STP is on Utah at 7:00 ET.

The Utes saw their nine-game winning streak in the "Holy War" end last Saturday, losing 26-17 at BYU (Regulars know BYU was My 10* Rivalry G.O.Y.). 1-1 Utah visits SD State this Saturday and the Aztecs have opened 2-0. However, SDSU's two wins have come over New Mexico St (0-3 TY, 1-1 LY and 2-10 in 2019) and Arizona, which own the nation's longest-active losing streak of 14 in a row!).

Utah's a big favorite on the road in this non-conference matchup, but in my opinion, not nearly big enough. First, these teams used to be MWC league rivals, before Utah 'jumped' to the Pac-12 for the 2011 season. Then there is this tidbit that many may not know. SD St is playing its "home games" this season in Carson, Ca, 115 miles from campus (plan is for the school's new stadium will be ready for the 2022 season).

Utah QB Charlie Brewer is better than he's shown so far and I expect a "breakout game" here vs a SDSU team that has played two 'cupcakes!' and this Utes offense which has won four of their last six on the road. Utah has a strong ground game averaging 190.5 YPG. Bernard has 181 yards (10.1 YPC)a nd Thomas 133 yards (7.0 YPC).

SDSU will have a difficult time moving the ball against a tough Utah defense which is conceding 21.5 points and 325 yards in the early going. QB Jordon Brookshire has just 259 passing yards, two TDs and an INT for SDSU so far. However, SDSU also has a strong run game, as it has averaged 261.5 YPG over its first two games (Greg Bell has 285 yards on 7.5 YPC). SDSU also has a strong defense, one which has allowed an average of 12 points and 301 yards per game but again, LOOK at the competition!

The schools haven't met since 2010 but note that Utah is 7-1 SU & ATS in the last eight meetings. I expect Utah's bigger lines to wear down SDSU as the game wears on. Catching Utah off its loss to BYU spells 'bad news" for SDSU. "B-L-O-W-O-U-T Alert!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Group of 5 Game of the Year is on Georgia St at 7:00 ET.

The Charlotte football program was created in 2008 and gained FBS status in 2013. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. However, Charlotte has opened 2-0 in 2021, while Ga St sits at 0-2.

Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win), before hammering Gardner-Webb 38-10 as a 22.5 point favorite. QB Reynolds has thrown for a modest 427 yards but his running game is averaging 230.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC ((leading rusher Camp has just 107 yards). Defense has been a major issue for Charlotte, as the 49ers entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes haven't reared its ugly head yet this season, but it's coming (note: The 49ers allowed 352 rush yards (8.0 YPC) against Duke in the opener.).

Georgia St was routed 43-10 at Army on Sep 4 and then last Saturday was in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing at North Carolina, which was coming off a season opening loss to Va Tech. NC's Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howell threw for 352 yards (three TDs) and ran for 104 yards with three TDs. The Tar Heels won 59-17. We just played a talented North Carolina team, and for two-and-a-half quarters, we fought and we scrapped and we clawed to try to hang in there," Panthers' head coach Shawn Elliott said earlier this week. "About six or seven minutes left in that third quarter, it was still a two-possession ballgame, but then it got away from us. So there were some positives, but obviously, no one in our football program is feeling good about where we are right now."

Ga St opened the season with 11 returning starters on offense and eight on defense and will NOT face that kind of offensive talent here. The Panthers almost NEED to win this one, as a trip to Auburn is up next (0-4 start?). I think Charlotte's 2-0 start is a little bit of a 'mirage' and I expect an EASY win for the home side. After all, Charlotte is just 8-26 SU on the road the last six seasons and this is its first roadie of 2021.

I like betting on motivated teams and there's NO question that the Panthers fit the bill and this contest is a big step down in competition, plus they got back some missing starters last week.

That's the play.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on Northwestern at 4:00 ET.

Both teams enter at 1-1, but I feel that this is a matchup which favors Northwestern. The Wildcats are the slight favorite here on the road, but I feel they could be much bigger ones.

Northwestern is led by QB Hunter Johnson, who has 341 yards passing in the early going, with four TDs and just one INT. Evan Hull has 213 rushing yards and two TDs for the Wildcats.

Gunnar Holmberg has 498 passing yards, one TD and no INTs for Duke (he also has 24 rushing yards and two TDs scored on the ground.) Mataeo Durant has carried the ball 44 times for a team-high 296 yards and six major scores.

Northwestern was 7-2 last season after a bowl win over Auburn, ending as the AP's 10th-ranked team. Yes, the Wildcats returned only eight starters but I firmly believe they are a much stronger team than Duke, which was only 2-9 in 2020.

Northwestern lost its season opener to Michigan St but the Spartans look like they'll be a top-25 team. Duke lost its opener at Charlotte and a 45-17 win over NC A&T means little. I'm not reading too much into Duke's early numbers, as its level of competition has skewed them on both sides of the ball.

Pat Fitzgerald has had some career at Northwestern, leading the Wildcats to 10 bowl bids in the last 13 season (Northwestern has won its last four bowl games). Including this game, northwester has four Beatable foes over the next five weeks (one bye). Could this be the "start of something big?" Just maybe. For this one, lay the small spread.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

The Hokies shutdown UNC, upsetting the then-10th Ranked Tar heels 17-10 on Sep 4. Va Tech then won 35-14 (-20) last Saturday over Middle Tennessee St. West Virginia QB Braxton Burmeister doesn't have much arm strength (only 311 passing yards in the 2-0 start) and he's now lost the services of TE James Mitchell for the season to injury. What's more, Burmeister is also the team's leader rusher, despite gaining only 94 yards on the ground.

West Va lost its season opener 30-24 at Maryland as a small road favorite (note: I had the Terps!) but then rolled 66-0 over Long Island. OK, I won't make much of that win. That said, QB Doege rates a huge edge over Burmeister, passing fir 536 yards in two games (he had a 14-4 TD-to-INT ratio last season). RB Leddie Brown has run for just 104 yards in his first two games but remember, he had 1,010 rushing yards last year (5.1 YPC).

This marks Va Tech's first road game and note that the Hokies are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Meanwhile, since the start of 2020, the Mountaineers are 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) at Milan Puskar Stadium. Let me note that the lone non-cover was 21-point win over Kansas, laying 21 1/2-points.

Lay the short points and expect a comfortable cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Illinois at 9:00 ET.

Maryland's opened the season 2-0, after playing just five games last season (2-3). The Terps upset West Va in 9/4 at home 30-24 and then routed Howard 62-0 last Saturday (again at home). QB Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown six TDs (zero INTs). The defense posted a shutout last weekend, after holding West Va to a modest 20 points. However, for me, this is a classic case of not "overreacting" to early numbers (more in a bit).

Illinois finished 2-6 last year, firing head coach Lovie Smith after seven games. The Illini hired Bret Bielema, who was terrific at Wisconsin but a flop at Arkansas. He took over a program that last posted a winning season in 2011! The 2021 season got off to an excellent start, as Illinois upset Nebraska at home 30-22 on Aug 28 but the team has since lost 37-30 at home to UTSA (9/4), before getting routed 42-14 on 9/11 at UVa. Peters was the returning starter at QB but was injured early vs Nebraska and has not returned. Artur Sitkowski has stepped in and has six TDs and just one INT (don't blame him!).

There will be NO lack of motivation here for the Illini, as a loss just could send Bielema's first season at College Park spiraling out of control. I believe Maryland is nowhere near as good as its 2-0 start and with games coming up against Iowa (10/1) and at Ohio St (10/9) coming up soon, I expect the Terps to get 'exposed.' Hey, why not start that process right here, as the Terps are just 3-11 SU on the road the last three seasons. Does that sound like a team that is supposed to be a road favorite of a TD or more?

"Bow wow" The Illini 'bark' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year is on BYU at 10:15 ET.

Utah visits BYU (both teams have opened 1-0) for the school's annual "Holy War" for the Beehive Boot. Utah is off a 40-17 win over Weber State, while BYU beat Arizona 24-16 in Las Vegas. The two bitter rivals did not meet last season (COVID) for just the SECOND time since 1946. To say this is a "revenge" game for BYU would be an understatement, as it's lost nine straight in this series.

Charlie Brewer (39 starts at Baylor with a 65-28 TD/INT ratio) was decent for Utah in its win, throwing for 233 yards, two TDs, and an INT on 19 of 27 passing. Tavion Thomas rushed for 107 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries. As for the Cougars, they got a decent performance from QB Jaren Hall, who is stepping in for Zach Wilson (No. 2 overall pick of the NFL 2021 draft). He passed for 198 yards and two TDs on 18 of 28 passing. Tyler Allgeier (1,130 yards / 7.5 YPC / 13 TDs last season) rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. BYU also has a stable of talented RBs as well in Lopini Katoa, Hinckley Ropati and Jackson McChesney, ready to go. WR Pau'u had eight catches, including two TD catches.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham (a BYU grad) enters his 17th season with the Utes, leading them to a bowl game in 13 of his first 16 years (declined a bid last season). He's had five 10-win seasons but just TWO in the last 10 years. Sure's he's won NINE straight over BYU but Cougars' head coach Kalani Sitake believes this year's team will surprise. Of course, the Cougars will NOT go 11-1 like in 2020 but aren't they overdue for a Holy War win? I won't call for an outright upset, but I do think this one will come right down to the wire.

While I realize that this stat hasn’t helped much vs Utah but BYU is 8-3 as dog since 2018 and 16-9-1 as dog since 2016. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd pick of my STP is on Miss St at 7:00 ET.

 NC State is off a shutout win over USF, while Mississippi State scored 21 points in the last 12 minutes to win 35-34, a comeback that marks the largest in school history.

 Wolfpack QB Devin Leary had 232 yards, two TDs, and an INT last week. The ground game looked good too, posting 293 yards.

 The defense stepped up and posted the shutout, but I think we have to take that result with a grain of salt.

 Mississippi State's offense is dynamic. Last week it got 370 yards, three TDs, and an INT from QB Will Rogers. The defense left everything to be desired in last week's win, but the good news was that the Bulldogs' unit bent, but didn't break.

 NC State is a run-first offense, so the Bulldogs' secondary catches a break this week. This one is going to be decided in the trenches and that's where Mississippi State has the advantage.

 I expect Miss St to win but I will sure any points I can get. One last thing. NC State is 1-7 SU and ATS vs SEC foes since 2008.

 The play is Mississippi State.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 7:00 ET.

Arkansas State comes in under the radar here in my opinion.

The Red Wolves are off a relatively simple 40-21 win over Central Arkansas as 14-point favorites and I believe they have a legitimate shot at winning today's game outright.

Memphis is off a 42-17 win over Nicholls State, but with a game at home against Mississippi State next weekend, I believe the Tigers are going to get caught looking ahead to that much more high-profile matchup.

Seth Henigan had 265 yards passing and a TD for Memphis last weekend, while Brandon Thomas rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown.

Not to be outdone though, the Red Wolves got a couple of good performances, as James Blackman threw for 169 yards in last week's win, while Layne Hatcher threw for 150 yards and 4 TDs on a perfect 12 of 12 passing!

Alan Lamar led the rushing attack with 67 yards and a TD on 18 carries.

These two teams are led by their dynamic offenses and everything points to an old-fashioned shootout.

It really does have the feel to me of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one.

As such, I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd play of my STP is an 8* on Rice at 6:30 ET.

Both teams are hungry for a win after opening the season 0-1. Houston lost by 17 to Texas Tech, while Rice lost by 21 to Arkansas.

 Last season Houston was 3-5 overall. It had a 21-7 lead going into half-time last week, but it then fell apart in the 38-21 loss. QB Clayton Tune had 174 yards passing and two TDs, but he also had four INTs.

 Last season Rice went 2-3. The Owls had a 10-7 lead going into half in their loss last week. QB Wiley Green had 152 yards passing, one touchdown, and four interceptions.

The Owls for the most part controlled their game vs. Arkansas, but three turnovers were the difference in the end.

The Cougars posted just 77 rushing yards and 174 passing yards and averaged just 3.4 yards per play last week.

These teams are rebuilding, but I think Rice is the correct call at home and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to the wire. 

 Final thought: Dana Holgorsen is in his third season at Houston and including last weekend's loss, is just 7-14 SU with the Cougars. Grab the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* CFB Week 2 Marquee is on Iowa St at 4:30 ET.

Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17 in 2019. While it lost straight up, it did manage to cover the spread in that one, as it had 1.5 points afforded to it.

This is a revenge game for the home side (these teams didn't face each other last season.)

Iowa State likely got caught looking ahead to this game after having to hold on for a 16-10 win here over Northern Iowa last week. It was a lackluster effort, as the Cyclones were a 28.5 point favorite.

Iowa clobbered Indiana 34-6 at home last weekend as a 3.5 point favorite. After this game though Iowa doesn't play again until October 1st, while Iowa State has a game at UNLV next weekend.

Regardless, both teams come into this game 1-0 with Iowa St ranked No.. 9 and Iowa at No. 10 *up from No. 18).

The Hawkeyes won 34-6 over Indiana last week but QB Spencer Petras threw for just 145 yards on 13 of 27 passing while also rushing for a score as well. However, the Iowa offense gained just 303 yards, scoring two TDs on INT returns. I seriously wonder if it's more a case of Indiana just playing terribly, rather than Iowa being a world beater right out of the gate to start the season.

While Iowa State had a much more difficult time in its opening game, QB Brock Purdy quietly had 199 yards on 21 of 26 passing, while also rushing for 58 yards on nine carries (he's thrown 46 TDs vs 18 INTs the last two seasons). Breece Hall (led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards plus added 21 TDs) but had just 69 yards and a TD on  23 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown.

The Cyclones defense was also stout, allowing just 10 points to a dangerous Northern Iowa team.

Yes, Iowa has won 13 of the last 17 meetings (plus enters on a seven-game winning streak after ending last season with six straight wins) but Iowa St has 20 returning starters and is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the -2.5 to -4.5 points range. Nothing but good things to say about Iowa's Kirk Ferentz but Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, and defeated Oregon 34-17. They finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Now it's time to win the "biggest-ever Cy-hawk game  in series history.

I like the revenge-minded home side to pull away down the stretch.

Lay the points, the play is Iowa State.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on Georgia Southern at 3:30 ET.

The outright victory is possible, but my official recommendation here will be to grab as many points as you can in this one.

 Georgia Southern is 1-0 after posting a tighter than expected 30-25 win over Gardner Webb in Week 1.

The Eagles got 90 yards and a score from Cam Ransom. Logan Wright was big though on the ground with 178 yards rushing and a TD.

 Defensively, Anthony Wilson led the Eagles with six total tackles including four solo tackles.

FAU got pounded 35-14 by Florida in its last outing. N’Kosi Perry was decent with 261 yards and a TD on 19 of 33 passing. Johnny Ford and Malcolm Davidson each had 52 rushing yards.

 This is not a spot that FAU has performed well in for bettors though, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite.

 Conversely, Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog.

 FAU had a difficult draw out of the gates, but this isn't an explosive offensive for the home side. Honestly, I have a hard time seeing the Owls keeping up the pace down the stretch, and as I said up top, while the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end, let's grab the points. Note: Ga Southern was 8-4 ATS last season vs FBS opponents.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Bobby Bowden Bowl' is on Florida State at 7:30 ET.

This will be an emotional contest for Florida State, as it is the Seminoles' first game since Bobby Bowden's death (the program will honor its legendary head coach before the game starts.

It is also a very important season, as Florida State's 3-6 record last year was its worst since going 3-8 in 1975, the year before Bowden took over. 

Visiting Tallahassee Sunday night will be Notre Dame, which made the CFP last season and opens 2021 as the AP's 9th-ranked team. However, this is considered a "reloading" year for the Fighting Irish. Taking over at QB for Ian Book (a huge winner and third-down master) will be Wisconsin transfer, Jack Coan. His challenge is to lead an offense with just TWO returning starters.

FSU features one of the best stories in college football this season with the debut of former UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton. Milton will be taking the field for the first time in 33 months, after suffering a knee injury against USF in November 2018. The injury was so gruesome that doctors had to consider amputation. After a grueling rehab process and a transfer to Tallahassee, Milton looks to complete a near-miraculous comeback.

This is a great opportunity for the Seminoles to catch the Irish a little uncertain in a few areas. Mike Norvell steps in as FSU's new head coach and in four seasons at Memphis he led the tigers to a 38-15 record and four bowl  berths. I like this guy and and he has all the tools in place to improve his offense dramatically this year.

I'm not calling for an upset but the again, I may just be. Bottom line is, TAKE the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

Nevada and Cal open their respective season Saturday Sep 4 at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell and Cal by Justin Wilcox. Both arrived at their respective schools in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season in Reno but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wilcox was 5-7 in his first season but then led Cal to back-to-back bowls in 2018 and 2019. However, COVID pretty much wiped out Cal's entire 2020 season, as the Bears would play just four games (1-3).

I like what Nevada brings to the table in Week 1. QB Carson Strong is expected to take another big step forward this year. Last season he finished with 2,858 yards, 70.1 percent passing, along with a sharp 27-4 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Toa Taua is now a senior and he finished with 675 rushing yards last year. Keep your eyes on WR Romeo Doubs as well, as he had 1,002 yards on 58 receptions in 2020. Nevada returns 10 starters on both offense AND defense. The Wolf Pack were the most penalized team in the MWC last year but with the core of each unit returning, this sloppy play is also expected to take a big turn in the right direction this season.

Cal's defense has been solid the last few years, but the offense has struggled under QB Chase Garbers. He's dealt with several injury issues over the years. He'll benefit from having most of his starting receivers return this season but the offensive line is another issue entirely. The Cal offense was one-dimensional last year, as the OL was never able to stop any sort of a pass rush. Four of the five starters return up front for Cal, so the unit should/could make big progressions this season. Still, Cal offense averaged just 20.3 PPG on 320 YPG in 2020.

Yes, Cal leads the series 22-3-1 but the schools have only met TWICE since 2010. Nevada won 53-21 in Reno back in 2010 and at Berkeley 31-24 in 2012. I believe Nevada is just too deep and have a hard time seeing this Cal offense keeping up the pace down the stretch. The Wolf Pack's defense was middle of the road last year, but with 10 starters returning, expect a significantly improved unit this season. I say that improvement starts right here in Week 1. I think the outright win is in the cards, but let's grab as many points as they give you.

Closing clincher: Under HC Justin Wilcox, Cal is a money-burning 1-8-1 ATS as a home favorite. 

Good luck...Larry