My 9* play (Battle of Unbeatens) is on SMU at 9:00 ET.

Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl.

The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and will travel to Dallas on Saturday night at 3-0 and ranked 9th, when they take on SMU (5-0 and ranked 16th). SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three years at La Tech, before getting the head coaching job at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. The team opened 8-0 last season and has now opened 5-0 in 2020 (best B2B starts since the "Pony Express" days of 1983-84). 

The Bearcats didn't start until Sep 16 but won three consecutive Saturdays) over Austin Peay, Army and USF )not exactly a "murderers' row!"). Cincy had a bye week on Oct 10 but then pulled out of last week's road game at Tulsa two days prior to the scheduled Saturday contest due to an outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the program. QB Ridder is coming off two solid seasons, passing for 2,445 yards and 2,164 yards with 38 TDs and 14 INTs. He's completing 60.3% through three games in 2020 for 597 yards but with six TDs and four INTs (not great). RB Doaks is the team's leading rusher with just 145 yards (3.5 YPC) but has added six catches while averaging 21.7 YPC and grabbing two TDs. WRs Young (9 catches) and Jackson (8 catches) are the team's top pass-catchers. Cincy's defense has allowed 17.2 and 20.6 PPG the last two seasons and is allowing just 12.3 PPG through three games in 2020. 

Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs). He's off to another excellent start this season, completing 67.2 percent for 1,710 yards with 12 TD and just two INTs. WRs Roberson (22 catches / 21.5 YPC / 3 TDs), Rice (24 catches / 17.1 YPC) and Gray (19 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Granson (17 catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 204.0 YPG (5.1YPC), led by Bentley (506 yards / 6.8 YPC / 8 TDs).

The SMU defense is allowing 25.4 PPG and shouldn't have too much trouble with a Cincinnati offense that has shown VERY little, so far. Yes, Luke Fickell's team has another excellent defensive team but SMU averages 42.6 PPG and will 'stretch' the Cincy D here at home, where SMU has won EIGHT in a row while averaging 45.0 PPG. The higher ranked team is an underdog in this one for a reason. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET.

The Big Ten returns to the playing field with all 14 teams in action. No. 14 Wisconsin starts things off with a home game against Illinois and SIX games follow on Saturday. The Big Ten is the oldest Division I collegiate athletic conference in the US and currently includes the flagship public university in each of 11 states stretching from New Jersey to Nebraska, as well as two additional public land-grant schools and a private university. It was established in 1895 when Purdue University president James H. Smart and representatives from the University of Chicago, University of Illinois, University of Michigan, University of Minnesota, Northwestern University, and University of Wisconsin gathered at Chicago's Palmer House Hotel to set policies aimed at regulating intercollegiate athletics. Two of that "original seven" (note: University of Chicago left the conference in 1946) meet Saturday in what is surely the most significant contest of the Big Ten's 'Week 1.' when No. 18 Michigan visits No. 21 Minnesota. 

Michigan's Jim Harbaugh was one of the league's most vocal head coaches in getting the Big Ten to return to play. Now, right out of the box, the Wolverines face a VERY tough first game in Minneapolis against the Golden Gophers. Last year's starting QB Shea Patterson had his critics but he did throw for 3,061 yards with 23 TDs and eight INTs. He graduated and Michigan's projected starter, junior Joe Milton, has thrown only 11 passes the last two seasons. Harbaugh wouldn't commit to Milton as his starter, contending redshirt freshman Cade McNamara is still in the running. The running game averaged just 150.7 YPC (on 4.0 YPC) last season, after averaging about 200 YPG the previous three. The team's top-two RBs return in Charbonnet (726 yards / 4.9 YPC / 11 TDs) and Haskins (622 yards / 5.1 YPC / 4 TDs), as do Michigan's top-two WRs, Bell (48 catches / 15.8 YPC / 1 TD) and Collins (37 catches / 19.7 YPC / 7 TDs). Harbaugh always features a strong defense but for the first time since arriving in Ann Arbor in back in 2015, his "D" allowed more than 20.0 PPG (20.7).

While Michigan opens the season with an inexperienced QB, the Gophers have Tanner Morgan, who threw 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs) in leading the Golden Gophers to 11 wins (notably, for the first time since 1904), including a 31-24 Outback Bowl victory over Auburn as a seven-point underdog. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs)) are both gone but RB Mohammad Ibrahim led the team in rushing as a freshman in 2018 with 1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs. He was injured for part of last season but still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs. Minnesota fans will remember that as a freshman, he was the MVP of Minnesota's 34-10 Quick Lane Bowl win by rushing for 224 yards. Rashod Bateman, the team's second-leading receiver a year ago, also returns after catching 60 passes for 1,219 yards (20.3 YPC) and 11 TDs on 60 receptions. DON'T be concerned with Minnesota's offense, which averaged 31.4 PPG (3rd in the Big 10 and 21st nationally). The defense lost its top-three tacklers from a year ago but head coach PJ Fleck has a good feeling about how his defense is progressing Minnesota allowed 22.5 PPG in 2019). "There's going to be a lot of questions that come up every single week," Fleck said. "I'm excited about where our defense is headed. I think I have a good feeling about where we're at, but again you don't know until the lights come on and until these guys are actually playing games."

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. He now gets this HUGE season-opening game with Harbaugh and Michigan, as the last time Minnesota was involved in a matchup of ranked teams to start a season was 1968. As for Harbaugh, I don't know how anyone can consider him anything but a HUGE disappointment in his return to his alma mater. He's 0-5 against Ohio State, losing 62-39 and 56-27 the last two seasons and is 1-7 SU on the road vs ranked opponents in his tenure at Michigan. I'm "all over" the home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on LSU at 7:00 ET.

LSU had a "season for the ages" in 2019, going 15-0 en route to winning the national championship. QB Joe Burrow was the runaway winner of the Heisman, as all he did was complete 76.3% for 5,671 yards with 60 TD passes and just INTs. He had an All-Star cast of receivers and Edwards-Helaire (1,441 rushing with 16 TDs plus 55 catches) just may have been the best RB in the nation (I believe the Chiefs may agree with that statement). Almost the entire group of starters were gone but LSU was still ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Think the Tigers may have been 'seeded' too high. I'll have plenty to say about LSU in a bit.

Will Muschamp came to South Carolina back in 2016 and while he led the Gamecocks to bowl berths in each of his first three seasons, South Carolina lost two of those three bowls and after a 4-8 season in 2019, his record at the school stood at 26-25. South Carolina opened the 2020 season 0-2, before winning 41-7 at Vandy, as if that really counts. However, maybe South Carolina turned its season around with last Saturday's 30-222 home win over then-No. 15 Auburn. The Tigers led 9-0 and 16-7 before the Gamecocks took an 11-point lead and hung on for a 30-22 win. Auburn QB Nix was intercepted THREE times, all leading to TDs. Finally, with Auburn facing a fourth-and-5 from the 12 with nine seconds to go, Bo Nix's scramble came up short as time expired. A win over Auburn was a LONG time coming, as South Carolina registered its first victory against Auburn since 1933! 

LSU opened the season on a 16-game winning streak but was shocked at home by Miss St, as Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense took apart the LSU defense. CJ Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, threw for an SEC single-game record 623 yards and five TDs. That season-opening loss looked bad at the time but looks even worse now, considering that Miss St has lost THREE in a row since that win, scoring a total of just 30 points (10 per game). As for Costello, he's been benched the last two games while throwing one TD pass against EIGHT interceptions. LSU won 41-7 at Vandy (so what) and then lost at Missouri by four points, allowing 45 points (on 586 yards) to a team which came in averaging 15.5 PPG. LSU was supposed to play at Florida last Saturday but the Gators had a COVID-19 outbreak and maybe the extra time was good for the Tigers.

QB Myles Brennan is no Burrow but has thrown for 1,112 yards and 11 TDs with just three INTs. Most of last season's receiving stars are gone but Marshall is back and has 21 catches, averaging 20.7 YPC with seven TDs. The running game is a problem with Edwards-Helaire in the NFL, as it has averaged a woeful 96.7 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Then of course, there is LSU's putrid defensive efforts against any school not named Vandy. QB Brennan is listed as questionable against the Gamecocks because of a lower-body injury sustained against Missouri and head coach Orgeron said the junior could not have played last week if there had been a game. If Brennan is unable to play, one of two freshmen -- Max Johnson and TJ Finley -- or perhaps both would see action in a college game for the first time. "Whoever has the best week is going to start," Orgeron said. "I plan on giving them both a chance during the game. I want to see what they can do. The only way to do it is in live action."

Obviously, I'm hoping Brennan can play but I feel confident the Tigers will be ready to bounce-back either way. Orgeron said the Tigers did "a lot of soul-searching" with the extra time to prepare and that's my expectation as well. South Carolina is off a HUGE win but in reality, Auburn has NOT played like a top-25 team all season (VERY overrated). LSU opened the current season having gone 18-2 in 'Death Valley" the previous three seasons and this is the team's first home game since the Miss St debacle. Brennan or no Brennan, LSU rolls.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Big Dog" is on Tennessee at 3:30 ET.

The Alabama–Tennessee football rivalry was always referred to as "The Third Saturday in October." The respective campuses are located approximately 310 miles apart and the game was traditionally played on "the third Saturday in October" each year, prior to the 1992 football season when the SEC split into its Eastern and Western divisions. Once upon a time, before Alabama hired Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide's fabled rivalry game with Tennessee saw the Volunteers dominate their SEC West crossover rival, winning 10 of 12 between 1995 and 2006. However, after Saban took the reins in Tuscaloosa before the 2007 season, it's been all Tide, all the time. Alabama is 13-0 against Tennessee since then, including last year's 35-13 win at home and 11 of those wins have been by double digits. Recent form suggests the second-ranked Tide should make it 14 straight when they visit Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday for the teams 103rd meeting. However, let's note that the Tide are three-TD favorites and for Alabama backers to win, they'll need a 21-point margin of victory (or more?), to collect the 'CA$H!'

 
The Tide survived a stressful week before their showdown with Georgia last Saturday, as Saban tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. However, THREE negative tests allowed him to coach the team on Saturday night and after trailing 24-20 at the half, Alabama held the Bulldogs scoreless in the second half for an impressive 41-24 win (regulars know that Alabama was my LEGEND Play!). Alabama QB Mac Jones has completed 78.3 percent for 1,518 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs, giving him the nation's top passer efficiency rating of 220.1. RB Harris got off to a slow start but he's run for 358 yards (6.6 YPC) the last two games, while scoring six TDs (he has 499 yards on 6.0 YPC with 11 TDs on the season). WRs Smith (38 catches / 4 TDs) and Waddle (25 catches / 22.3 YPC / 4 TDs) give Jones a dynamic receiving duo. Alabama's defense had struggled through its first 3 1/2 games but maybe it 'found its identity' in the second half vs Georgia. 

Tennessee won its final SIX games of 2019 and opened the 2020 season ranked No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll. The Vols opened 2-0 and visited Georgia on Oct 10 as the nation's 14th-ranked team. The Vols led 21-17 at the half "between the hedges" but would get shut out in the second half of a 44-21 loss. Tennessee welcomed Kentucky to Nashville last Saturday having dominated the series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the previous 35 meetings. Tennessee was 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky had lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! However, the Vols are coming off their most lopsided defeat at home to Kentucky since 1935, a 34-7 blowout last week in which they made enough mistakes to lose two games. QB Jarrett Guarantano brought out the" boo birds" with consecutive pick-sixes in just over two minutes early in the second quarter, and an interception from reserve quarterback J.T. Shrout set up a Kentucky field goal that made it 17-0." Tennessee has turned the ball over SEVEN times in its last SIX quarters, with Guarantano responsible for SIX of those turnovers.

So why take Tennessee? Alabama is coming off its HUGE win over Georgia and with 13 straight wins over Tennessee can hardly view the Vols as a real threat. Tennessee HAS to be be motivated after its embarrassing loss to Kentucky and it's possible that highly touted true freshman Harrison Bailey will get the start and give the Vols a much-needed spark. No upset expected but like when Alabama failed to cover vs Ole Miss at Oxford on Oct 10 (Rebels were with FOUR points with under four minutes to go), I expect this "Big Dog" to 'bark' loudly.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET.

Mike Norvell was introduced as the 24th head football coach of the Memphis Tigers on Dec 4, 2015, making him the youngest FBS head coach in the nation at the time of his hiring (aged 34). Norvell had overseen one of the nation's most explosive offenses at Arizona State under Todd Graham. The Tigers would go 8-5, 10-3 and 8-6 his first three seasons and then in 2019, he delivered one of the best seasons in the program's history, as the Tigers went 11–1 in the regular season and then won the AAC championship game over Cincy. As the highest ranked Group of 5 team in the final CFP poll, they were awarded a New Years' 6 bowl berth to the Cotton Bowl against Penn State. However, Norvell didn't wait, accepting the head coaching job at Florida State the day after winning the AAC title game. FSU has seen a 'revolving door' of head coaches since Jimbo Fisher left and Norvell took over a team off back-to-back losing seasons Not much had gone right for the Seminoles in 2020, who opened 1-3 with that lone win coming over Jacksonville St. However, the Seminoles upset then-No. 5 North Carolina 31-28 last Saturday.

FSU is on the road this Saturday to take on Louisville. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but NOTHING has gone right since, as the Cardinals will enter on a FOUR-game slide.

FSU has used three QBs so far but redshirt sophomore Jordan Travis had 204 passing yards and 96 rushing yards against Notre Dame in his first career start. FSU lost 42-26 but the Louisville transfer displayed playmaking skills. Travis then threw for 191 yards (on just eight completions) and one TD plus ran 16 times for a career-high 107 yards and two TDs in the upset of North Carolina, Florida State took a big early lead (up 31-7 at the half) but had to hold on for a 31-28 win. The Tar Heels had a chance for a tying FG late but a wide-open drop on what would have been a first down on a fourth down pass, ended the rally. Travis is completing just 54.0% of his passes but leads the team in rushing (342 yards / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs). A trio of RBs contribute between 160 and 262 yards for a team averaging 183.4 YPG on the ground. However, the FSU defense is allowing 32.4 PPG.

Louisville's season unraveled quickly after its win over Western Kentucky. The Cardinals lost 47-34 at home to then-No. 17 Miami, before playing three straight road games. Louisville was outplayed at then-No. 21 Pitt but lost just 23-20. An embarrassing 46-27 loss at Ga Tech followed but the team HAS to be encouraged by its 12-7 loss at then-No. 4 Notre Dame last Saturday. QB Cunningham is completing 62.2 percent for 1,118 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. RB Hawkins has 519 rushing yards (ranks 4th nationally) on 5.2 YPC with three TDs. WR Atwell is "a player," with 29 catches and four TDs. The Louisville defense really stepped up at Notre Dame, holding the Irish to 338 yards and 12 points (ND entered averaging 40.3 PPG).

"There's a fine line from winning or losing," Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield said. "You have to do the little things correctly in order to give yourself a chance to win. You can go back to last year; how many were so close that we could've won or lost. This year we've been on the short end of those sticks." I'm sure QB Jordan Travis is motivated to face his old team but that motivation works BOTH ways. FSU is allowing 475 YPG and THREE of their four ACC foes have topped 500 yards. Meanwhile, Louisville is allowing only 379 YPG. The game will be Louisville's first at home since that 47-34 loss to then-No. 17 Miami back on Sep 19 and the "desperate for a win" Cardinals catch Florida St off its upset over North Carolina, snapping a seven-game regular season losing streak against top-10 opponents that had gone back to 2016. Louisville is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: I posted this play BEFORE the news that Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19. The line has dropped since the news and quite honestly, I like the play even more. Saban has prepared his team for a game like this and I expect there be to be a "Win one for the Gipper" mentality running through the veins of all Alabama players. As they say in golf, "Play Away!"

Four of the nation's 10 college football conferences decided not to play fall football this season back in August, including the Big Ten and the Pac 12. While those conferences have reversed their decisions, none of those teams have yet to begin play (that changes very soon). The Big Ten and Pac 12 featured schools in the AP preseason top-25, so the fall out from that has been WAY fewer early season matchups between top25 opponents. In fact, there have been just 10 games played so far in 2020 in which top-25 opponents have squared off. The paucity of top-25 matchups continues this Saturday, with just ONE game featuring top-25 opponents. However, it's fair to say it's a "Big One," as No. 3 Georgia visits No. 2 Alabama Saturday night (8:00 ET on CBS) in Tuscaloosa.

These two national powers haven't met in the regular season since 12105 and believe it or not, the last time the Bulldogs played in Tuscaloosa was 2007. That happened to be Nick Saban's first season with Alabama and Georgia won 26-23 in OT. Saban's first season didn't go very well, as Alabama ended the regular season with a 6–6 record, including a four-game losing streak, featuring a particularly humiliating loss at home to ULM-Monroe and a SIXTH straight loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide did defeat Colorado in the 2007 Independence Bowl 30–24, to end the year 7–6. Just in case you may be unaware, Saban's done pretty well since then. I don't have time to chronicle his entire record but will note that Saban's won FIVE national s]championships at Alabama since his first, back in 2009 (his third season at Tuscaloosa). Georgia knows all about competing for a national title in that same time frame but the Bulldogs have yet to capture a single title since winning the 1980 national championship led by a freshman Herschel Walker. Ohio State and Georgia were crowned national champions back in 1942 and Georgia claims it as so in its record books. In fairness, Georgia defeated UCLA in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 1943, as NINE ranking authorities listed in the NCAA record books placed the Bulldogs as No. 1. However, don't try to 'sell' that to Ohio St, which Ohio State was named No. 1 in the final AP Poll at the end of November and did not make a bowl appearance. Now to Saturday's game.

The Bulldogs expected Wake Forest graduate transfer Janmie Newman to lead its offense in 2020 but he "opted out" before the start of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. Stepping in is junior Stetson Bennett, who had just 27 pass attempts in 2019 for the Bulldogs. He's completed 63.1% for 689 yards through three games, throwing five TDs, while NOT throwing an interception in 84 attempts. His "go-to" receiver is Jackson, who has 19 catches (15.8 YPC( and one TD. A trio of other WRs have combined for 19 catches as well, averaging only 10.2 YPC. The running game is averaging 172.0 YPG but only 3.8 YPC. White is the team's top RB and he's scored four TDs but has a modest 209 yards and averages just 3.9 YPC. Georgia owns an excellent defense, which helped them open 2-0 with a 37-10 win at Arkansas and a 27-6 home win over then-No. 7 Auburn. Georgia found itself down 21-17 to Tennessee at the half last Saturday but scored 27 points in the second half, while its defense allowed only 71 yards and four FDs after halftime. The Bulldogs held the Volunteers, who came in ranked 14th  to minus-1 yard on 27 rushes.

The Georgia defense ranks first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and is tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG) but will surely be tested by Alabama's offense Saturday night, as the Crimson Tide lead the nation with an average of 51.0 PPG (note: Alabama put up 723 yards last Saturday vs Ole Miss!). QB Mac Jones has seamlessly replaced Tua, completing 79.5% for 1,101 yards (that's 367 per) with eight TD passes and just one INT. He is the national leader in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 220.3. I took the "big points" (24.5 to be exact) last Saturday with Ole Miss against Alabama and easily cashed. Alabama led just 49-45 with under 3 1/2 minutes, before winning 63-48. I wrote in that game analysis that Alabama's running offense had struggled through its first two games, averaging only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. However, that all changed last Saturday, as Najee Harris rushed for 206 yards and a school-record five TDs. (he now has 10 TDs after just three games / he ran for 1,224 yards on 5.9 YPF with 13 TDs last season). WR Jeudy is now in the NFL but wideouts DeVonta Smith ( 68 catches / 14 TDs in 2019) and Jaylen Waddle are back. Smith leads with 27 catches and Waddle has 19, averaging 20.8 YPC. Then there is Mitchie, who has a more modest 11 catches but averages 27.1 YPC!

There is no denying that Alabama's defense is not up to past standards (it's not even close!).The Alabama D had been 'soft' the first two games, allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the previous seven seasons. It then got BLASTED last Saturday, as the Tide gave up a school record 643 yards to fast-paced Ole Miss. However, Georgia's offense is pedestrian compared to that of Ole Miss. In fact, Bennett was  the Bulldogs' fourth choice at QB in the offseason. However, first Newman opted out of the season, USC transfer J.T. Daniels wasn't medically cleared for the opener and D'Wan Mathis lasted only 17 passes as the starter before Bennett got his shot. The record is clear, Saban is 21-0 against his former assistants, after besting Lane Kiffin last Saturday. 'Bama was laying more than three TDs against Ole Miss, so a 15 point win was NOT enough to "get the ca$h! Alabama has won the last FIVE meetings with Georgia, with current Georgia head coach Kirby Smith, who was an Alabama assistant under Saban from 2007 to 2015, going 0-2. In the first 'Titanic' matchup of the 2020 college football season, Saban moves to 22-0 against his former assistants, while Smart falls to 0-3 against his former boss and the margin will be "significantly" higher than the posted pointspread. Roll Tide!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Miss St at 4:00 ET.

Texas A&M  opened its season with a highly-disappointing 17-12 home win over Vandy, a team which has since lost two more games, allowing 41 points in each. Next up was a trip to Alabama, where the Aggies fell 52-24 (Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs). A&M badly needed a win last Saturday at home vs No. 3 Florida (I had the Aggies!) and got it, upsetting the Gators 41-38. A&M's running game proved to be the difference as the Aggies totaled 205 rushing yards on the ground, led by Isaiah Spiller's 174 yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Senior QB Kellen Mond completed 25 of 35 passes for 338 yards and three TDs, as Texas A&M totaled 543 yards on offense.

The Aggies are on the road this Saturday to Starkville, Ms for a game with Mississippi St. Mike Leach had some coaching debut with the Bulldogs back on Sep 26, opening with a 44-34 win at defending champion LSU. He brought his "Air Raid" offense to the SEC and QB Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, shredded the LSU pass D for an SEC record 623 yards passing. However, does the phrase "how the mighty have fallen" ring a bell? Since that season-opening win, Costello and the Bulldogs have lost at home to Arkansas (Razorbacks snapped a 20-game SEC losing streak with the win) and then lost 24-2 at Kentucky, a game in which Costello was benched.

Mond is a quality QB, who enters completing 62.5% for 845 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. Spiller is a solid RB and has chipped in 316 yards, while averaging 6.9 YPC. TE Wyderman leads the team with 15 catches, while WR Chapman leads with three TD  receptions among his 14 catches. However, the A&M defense has NOT looked very good (the Vandy game doesn't count!), allowing a combined 90 points on 946 yards against Alabama and Florida.

Miss St has a non-existent running game, averaging only 38.1 YPG on 2.1 YPC. However, Leach has been winning games for decades with his "Air Raid" offense. Costello has just one TD and seven ITNs the last two games but this guy was a solid QB at Stanford. The LSU game will NEVER be repeated but I expect him to bounce back here. The Miss St defense has played the last two weeks, allowing just 275 yards to Arkansas and then ONLY 157 to Kentucky.

A&M's win last week over No. 3 Florida was its first win over an AP top 5-ranked team in the three-year tenure of coach Jimbo Fisher. Texas A&M had previously gone 3-8 against AP ranked teams under Fisher. I 'smell' a let down and note that Miss St has beaten A&M handily in each of the Aggies last three visits to Davis Wade Stadium, 48-31 (-2.5), 35-28 (+ 10.5) and 28-13 (-1.5). Typical of Leach's teams in his eight seasons at Washington State was for them to play its best against the toughest competition but come up wanting against apparently lesser opponents. Upset alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on NC State at 3:30 ET.

Football in the ACC is unlike basketball. Duke and North Carolina State are just 20 miles apart and play in the same conference but the schools have stopped meeting annually once the ACC expanded and went to a divisional format 15 years ago. They have played only THREE times since then (this will be the fourth meeting), with their last meeting coming back in 2013. David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense, so it was expected that  NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve  in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC St knows all about how COVID-19 has impacted a team's schedule. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's 2020 schedule.

Duke opened the 2020 season losing FOUR in a row, as its defense allowed 32.3 PPG. However, the Blue Devils finally broke into the win column by winning on the road at Syracuse 38-24 last Saturday. Duke showed some offense in the Syracuse game, as the Blue Devils had 645 total yards (third-highest total in program history) and made 36 FDs. The team ran for 363 yards, as Jackson (169 yards / 5.6 YPC) and Mataeo Durant (163 yards / 7.1 YPC and two TDs) became the first pair of Blue Devils ever to rush for more than 150 yards in the same game. However, Duke's junior QB Chase Brice has been inconsistent in 2020, completing only 53.9% of his passes with five TDs and eight INTs. As noted above, Duke's D is not much of a 'stop unit' and let's not put too much stock in the Blue Devils' win over Syracuse, which is just 1-3 with all three losses coming by double digits.

NC State QB Devin Leary was still recovering from COVID-19 at the opening of the season and did not play in the Wolfpack's season-opening 45-42 win over Wake. NC St lost its second game of the season 45-24 at Va Tech, with Leary seeing his first action by going 12 of 16 for 165 yards with one TD and no INTs in relief. He started the following game at then-No. 24 Pittsburgh, leading the Wolfpack to a 30-29 upset win. He threw for 336 yards with four TD passes. He did not have a good game last Saturday in NC St's 38-21 win over UVa (as a TD underdog!), completing just 11 of 25 for 184 yards with two TDs and one INT. The 'star of the game' was NC St's defense, which forced four turnovers, had SIX sacks and held Virginia to just four conversions on 18 third down attempts. The Wolfpack converted those four Cavalier turnovers into 17 points and out rushed UVa by nearly 100 yards. 

This is NC State's first home game in just about a month (hosted Wake back on Sep 19). Leary enters this game with seven TDs and just one INT and the defense has 18 sacks on the season (after getting SIX last Saturday), while the team's veteran OL has not given up a sack in either of the last two games. Great spot for NC St to win and win "by a margin!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Ole Miss at 3:30 ET.

It's a pair of 1-2 SEC teams meeting in Fayetteville on Saturday, as Ole Miss visits Arkansas. B0th schools have new head coaches this season, Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and Sam Pittman at Arkansas. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. 

Pittman joined new University of Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema's staff as assistant head coach/offensive line coach and stayed from 2013 through 2015 seasons. Pittman departed Arkansas after the 2015 season to become offensive line coach at the University of Georgia under new head coach Kirby Smart. He garnered a reputation as "one of the best recruiters and offensive line coaches in the SEC and helped Georgia win three consecutive SEC East titles from 2017–2019. He was promoted to associate head coach in 2019  but on December 8, 2019, Pittman was announced as the new head coach at Arkansas.

The Ole Miss offense has thrived under Kiffin, averaging 41.7 PPG after three games. QB Matt Corral is completing 76.1 percent for 1,080 yards (he's topped 300 yards in all three games) with nine TDs and just one INT. His QB Rating of 210.7 ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency. WR Moore already has 31 catches but TE Yeboah is averaging 23.7 YPC and FOUR of his 15 receptions have gone for TDs. The running game offers a nice balance to Corral's passing, averaging 192.3 YPG, with Ealy (243 yards / 5.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Connor (179 yards / 4.8 YPC / 4 TDs) both contributing. As for the defense, I'll say "no comment" and let these numbers speak for themselves. The defense that has given up 155 points and 641.3 YPG in three outings.

Florida transfer Feleipe Franks has done a nice job for the Razorbacks, completing 64.9% for 730 yards with seven TDs and just two INTs. However, the Arkansas running game is non-existent, averaging 86.3 YPG on just 2.4 YPC and the team has yet to score a rushing TD through THREE games! RB Smith is the team's leading rusher (167 yards / 4.1 YPC) and also leads the team with 14 catches. However, WR Warren has 10 catches, averaging 22.3 YPC and has caught three TDs.

Arkansas is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools but I really like what I've seen from Ole Miss. The Rebels couldn't keep up with the Gators in their first game (lost 51-35 but gained 613 yards!), then came from two TDs down in the third quarter at Kentucky to win 42-241 in OT the following Saturday. Ole Miss gave Alabama all it wanted last Saturday, trailing just 49-45 with under four minutes to go, before losing 63-48. The Razorbacks FINALLY broke its 20-game SEC losing streak with a 21-14 win at Miss St on Oct 3 and  gave Auburn all it wanted in last Saturday's 30-28 road loss. A controversial ruling allowed the Tigers to get off a late field goal for their 30-28 victory over the Hogs and immediately became one of the hot topics of last weekend, with the consensus seeming to be that officials denied the Hogs what would have been their second victory. Pittman said he talked to John McDaid, SEC coordinator of football officials, and is "at peace" with the issue. "I don't really know what to say," he said at his weekly press conference. "I don't want to go into it, but I heard from the head of officials and I understand what happened now. So now we'll move forward on it."

Pittman may be "at peace" with last Saturday's result but his team got robbed!' Bottom line is that Arkansas enter this game 1-21 SU in its last 22 SEC games and I want no part of them here (in basically a pick'em game) against an Ole Miss offense that leads the SEC in total offense (573 YPG), FDs (86), and passing yards per completion (16.31). Even more impressively, the offense has lost only ONE turnover on an interception, a conference low. The Rebels just put up 647 yards on the 'Bama defense and their 48 points were the most the Tide have given up vs an unranked team since 1936! As they like to say in Oxford, "Hotty Toddy!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Tennessee at 12:00 ET.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. Jeremy Pruitt was the DC at Florida St (2013) at Georgia (2014-15) and at Alabama (2016-17), before being hired as Tennessee's head coach in December of 2017. It capped a tumultuous coaching search that followed the firing of head coach Butch Jones and led to the replacement of AD John Currie by Hall of Fame coach Phillip Fulmer. Pruitt finished his first season with a 5–7 record, including 2–6 in SEC play. However, the Vols won their final five regular season games and then capped the year with a 23–22 comeback victory in the Gator Bowl against Indiana. Tennessee opened the 2020 ranked 25th in the AP's preseason poll and with a SIX-game winning streak. Old rivals Kentucky and Tennessee square off Saturday in Nashville at 12 noon ET. 

The Wildcats lost their season-opener at Auburn in a game MUCH closer than the 29-13 final. Kentucky seemingly scored a TD right before the half (was trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six" was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky then lost at home the following Saturday to Ole Miss, failing to hold a 14-point lead in the third quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. However, Kentucky defenders intercepted SIX passes and the Wildcats, despite picking up only 10 FDs, defeated visiting Mississippi State 24-2 for their first victory of the season last Saturday night in Lexington. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson is more of a runner (leading rusher  with 221 yards on 4.6 YPC and three TDs) than a passer (61.3% for 463 yards with two TDs and one INT. The deep owns depth in the backfield and is averaging 212.3 YPG rushing (more on that in a bit). WR Josh Ali is the lone pass-catcher of note with 18 receptions but he's averaging just 11.6 YPC and does not have a receiving TD.

Tennessee won a hard-fought game at South Carolina to open the season (31-27) and then beat Missouri 35-12, gaining 422 yards. That win extended the Vols' winning streak to EIGHT in row, tied with Notre Dame for the longest active among Power-5 schools. The Vols were in Athens, Ga last Saturday and led the then-No. 4 Bulldogs 21-17 at the half, before getting 'rolled' in the second half, as Georgia scored the game's final 27 points for a 44-21 win. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano has completed 62.2% of his passes for 664 yards with four TDs and just one INT. His lone receiver of note is Josh Palmer, who has 14 catches (16.2 YPC) and has caught THREE of Guarantano's four TD throws, A pair of RBs share time, as Chandler has 187 yards (4.7 YPC) and Gray (170 yards (4.7 YPC).

As the teams meet Saturday, here's the rub. Tennessee has dominated this series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the last 35 meetings. Tennessee is 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky has lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! What changes here? Let me return to Kentucky's running game averaging over 200 yards. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards (7.3 YPC) vs Ole Miss but in their other two games, vs Auburn and Miss St, they've run for an average of just 114.5 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Remember, Kentucky had just 10 FDs vs Miss St last Saturday, while gaining 157 total yards. NO way the Wildcats break their 17-game losing streak in Knoxville this Saturday and the bet says the Vols win "with room to spare!" Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SBC Game of the Year is on UL Lafayette at 7:30 ET.

Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have followed with two more wins and will visit Cajun Field at 3-0 to take on ULL, which is also 3-0 and ranked No. 21 in the latest AP poll.

Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season, gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38) and then capped its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL has since added two wins over Ga State (34-31) and Georgia Southern (20-18) but both games came right down to the wire.

Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 66.7% for 728 yards with nine TDs and just one INT, while rushing for 139 yards (4.5 YPC) plus three more TDs. C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) but has a modest 190 yards this season (4.0 YPC) with three TDs. However, the running game has been good, averaging 198.3 YPG on 4.6 YPC. WR Heiligh has 12 catches (18.3 YPC) with three TDs, TE Likely has seven catches (30.7 YPC!) and three TDs plus WR Brown has six catches (22.8 YPC) with one TD. I will comment on these numbers in just a bit. QB Levi Lewis has been solid for ULL (723 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs), backed by a decent running game averaging 168.7 YPG on 5.1 YPC. Mitchell is the best RB, with 210 yards on 8.8 YPC with two TDs. A trio of WRs include LeBlanc (12 catches / 16.2 YPC / 1 TD), Lacy (6 catches / 19.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Pauley (4 catches / 20.5 YPC).

Getting back to the VERY good offensive numbers put up by Coastal Carolina this year, not that the Chanticleers have faced only Kansas (maybe the WORST Power-5 school in the nation), which is 0-3 and allowing 44.0 PPG. Campbell (Big South) is an FCS school is 0-4, allowing 47.0 PPG and Arkansas St is 1-2, allowing 40.0 PPG. I'm NOT all that concerned with ULL's "close calls" against Ga State and Georgia Southern. I'd rather remind all about its win at Iowa St, which is back in the top25 at No. 20, after wins at TCU, a home win over Oklahoma (1st since 1960) and a 31-15 home win over Texas Tech. ULL is 11-2 SU at home under Napier, with one loss coming 17-7 against Appalachian St (in 2019) and against Coastal Carolina a 30-28 in 2018. Rajin' Cajuns WILL remember and an impressive win here will put ULL in the discussion for a Group of 5 bowl bid. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Big Dog" is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

No. 2 Alabama travels to Oxford Mississippi to take on Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin, who was Nick Saban's offensive coordinator for three seasons at Alabama (2014-16) the Tide won three SEC championships and one national championship in that span but like with all situations involving Kiffin, all separations are at least a little controversial. Saban needs no introduction but here's a quick history of Kiffin.

Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs and 0 INTs). However, the Rebels fought back from a 28-14 deficit  in the third quarter last Saturday at Kentucky, with Ole Miss winning 42-41 in OT.

The adage is, Saban never loses against head coaches who worked for him. Saban ran his record to 4-0 against former assistant Jimbo Fisher in a 52-24 victory against Texas A&M last Saturday, making him 20-0 against former assistants. Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs against A&M and is completing 74.5% of his passes for 684 yards with six TDs and one INT. He leads the country in passing efficiency with a rating of 222.1. WR Smith leads the team with 14 catches and Washington is right behind him with 13, averaging 21.2 YPC  and hauling in three TDs. Metchie has just seven catches but is averaging a WHOPPING 31.9 YPC with two TDs. What has been missing so far with Alabama's is its running game. It's just two games but Alabama has run for only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. In comparison, Alabama has averaged right about 210 YPG the last SEVEN seasons. The Alabama D has also been 'soft,' allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the last seven seasons.

Alabama's Jones has been excellent but so has Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, who has completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 715 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception (he ranks 3rd in passing efficiency with a rating of 211.9). Corral's top target is Moore (20 catches / 15.9 YPC / one TD) but TE Yeboah has been a real playmaker. He's caught eight passes with an average of 21.8 YPC and two TDs. Mingo also has eight receptions (16.0 YPC) and two TDs and Drummond has just two catches with BOTH going for TDs. The Rebels' running game is not all that great but Ole Miss is averaging about 40 YPG more than Alabama (154.5 YPG). 

The Ole Miss defense will NOT win this game (meaning cover) but the Ole Miss offense has the ability to stay within this generous pointspread. That's the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET.

Mike Leach is known for building potent offenses, directing passing-oriented teams in a spread offense system known as the "air raid" offense. He helped develop it with Hal Mumme when Mumme was head coach and Leach was offensive coordinator at Iowa Wesleyan, Valdosta State and Kentucky in the 1990s. Leach's offenses with Mumme, and later as a head coach himself, have broken numerous school and NCAA records. led Texas Tech to 10 straight bowls from 2000 through 2009 but was fired under controversial circumstances. Leach surfaced at Washington St in 2012 and after three losing seasons (two at 3-9), led teh Cougars to FIVE straight bow games. Leach agreed to be the head coach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs on January 9, 2020.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3, only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish.

Leach's debut for Miss St saw the Bulldogs upset defending champion LSU 44-34 on the road. C.J. Costello (a graduate transfer from Stanford) set a single-game SEC record with 623 passing yards (he threw 5 TDs). However, Miss St fell back to earth last Saturday, losing 21-14 at home to Arkansas (as a 16.5 favorite), which has lost 20 straight SEC games. Costello threw for 31 3 yards but had just one TD and three INTs. Costello has thrown 60 passes against LSU and 59 vs Arkansas, while the Miss St running game has produced a total of just 96 yards in those contests.

Kentucky lost its season opener 29-13 at then-No. 8 Auburn, but the game was pretty close. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky was home last Saturday against Ole Miss and couldn't hold a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. 

QB Wilson threw for 239 yards vs Auburn but against Ole miss had just 151 passing yards, completing 14 of 18; However, he added 129 yards rushing with three TDs, as two Kentucky RBs topped 100 yards rushing as well. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards on 5.6 YPC. Not many teams lose when gaining over 400 yards on the ground.

Running the ball effectively will keep Costello and Leach's "air raid" offense off the field and Kentucky sure doesn't want to open 0-3. Kentucky entered 2020 having gone 12-3 SU at home the previous two seasons. The fact that the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five meetings between these two schools works for Kentucky. As does the fact that Miss St had gone 0-6 ATS as a rod dog the last three seasons, before its shocking win at LSU. The pointspread says "close call but I'm saying W-I-P-E-O-U-T!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on Oklahoma at 12:00 ET.

Oklahoma & Texas meet in the Red River Showdown for the 116th time. Texas holds a 62-48-5 edge all-time but the Sooners have won 14 of the 21 meetings since 2000. However, the "vibe" is different in 2020 for MANY reasons. The Red River Showdown is one of the most unique games in college football. The are fans split down the 50-yard-line. The State Fair of Texas is bustling just outside the Cotton Bowl gates and the bus rides by the teams through the fairgrounds to the stadium are jam-packed with thousands of fans lining the streets either cheering or jeering. COIVID-19 has changed all that. "To pull into the fairgrounds without anybody there will be a little eerie," Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley said. "It'll be different, there's no doubt. And that's just 2020 right now, I guess."

What also makes this great rivalry different in 2020 is that the Sooners come in 1-2 (0-2 Big 12) after being beaten 37-30 at home by Kansas State last week. Oklahoma lost in Ames for the first time since 1960 and has now dropped back-to-back regular-season games (lost 38-35 at home to Iowa St on Sep 26) for the first time since 1999. The Sooners were No. 3 in the AP poll two weeks ago but the loss to Iowa St dropped them out of the top-25 after spending 64 consecutive weeks inside the AP top-25. Texas also lost last Saturday 33-31 to TCU, when the Longhorns fumbled at the Horned Frogs goal line on a 1st and goal play with about four minutes to go. Texas (1-1 / 0-1 Big 12) remained in the rankings last Sunday, although the 'Horns dropped from No. 9 to No. 22. Last Saturday's results have Oklahoma and Texas meeting with NEITHER school in the top-20 for the 1st time since 1999!

Oklahoma has a freshman QB in Spencer Rattler and he's completing 73.4% with 10 TDs and four INTs. CeeDee Lamb (62 catches / 21.4 YPC / 14 TDs) is now in the NFL but WRs Rambo (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs) and Mims (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) are quality players plus RB Stogner has 11 catches (averaging 15.8 YPC) and fellow RB hall has eight receptions goo for three TDs. However, the running game is NOT up to usual standards, averaging only 122.7 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Oklahoma's erratic defensive play has hurt them in the past in the CFP and this year's unit has allowed 38 and 37 points in the team's back-to-back losses.

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has seemingly been around forever and in three games, has thrown 14 TDs passes against only two INTs while averaging 308.0 YPG passing. Unlike Rattler, Ehlinger has an excellent rushing game to balance the Texas offense, averaging 191.3 YPG on 5.5 YPC.  He's also has a solid trio of WRs in Moore (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs), Schooler (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and Eagles, who may have just five receptions but he's averaging 22.2 YPC and three of his five catches have gone for TDs. However, very much like Oklahoma. the Texas defense has allowed 87 points in its last two games (really should have lost at Texas Tech two Saturdays ago) on 899 yards!

One team's season will be 'in tatters' after this game and my bet says the Sooners just WON'T lose THREE in a row. No John Blake sighting this Saturday at the Cotton Bowl. For those who need a reminder, Blake served as the head coach for the Oklahoma Sooners from 1996 to 1998, compiling a career record of 12–22, which is the worst three-year stretch at the University of Oklahoma football history. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas A&M at 12:00 ET.

The Florida Gators will take a 2-0 record (both SEC wins) and their No. 4 ranking in the AP poll into College Station on Saturday to face No. 21 Texas A&M (1-1 start with both games also being conference contests). Florida QB Kyle Trask replaced an injured Feleipe Franks last season and went from obscurity to folk hero in Gainesville. He ended the season with 2,941 passing yards (25 TDs / 7 INTs), as the Gators finished 11-2 after a 36-28 Orange Bowl win over Virginia (final ranking of No. 6 in the AP poll). Jimbo Fisher completed his second season with Texas A&M in 2019, going 8-5, after going 9-4 in his first season (both seasons ended with bowl wins). 17 wins (including two bowl wins) over two seasons while playing in the SEC West is not bad but NOT what A&M is paying Fisher a 'ton' of money for. He's had two straight top-10 recruiting classes and the A&M fans and boosters want more.

Florida passed for 213.5 YPG in 2018, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season, passed for 300.8 yards and ran for just 129.8. Head coach Dan Mullen loved the results (11-2 record) but was hoping for some more balance in 2020. However, Trask has been OUTSTANDING in two wins, completing 71.8% for 684 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. 6-5 TE Pitts has 12 catches, averaging 18.9 YPC with six TDs. The running game has been somewhat pushed to the 'back-burner,' averaging a modest 138.0 YPG with only one rushing TD. The Florida D has looked pretty vulnerable, allowing 29.5 PPG on 471.0 YPG. 

Texas A&M was ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but played an uninspiring season-opener at home on Sep 26, edging Vandy just 17-12. Up next was Alabama last Saturday and while A&M gained 450 yards and scored 24 points, the Aggies allowed 52 points 554 on yards, with Alabama QB Mac Jones throwing for a career high 435 yards and four TDs. A&M QB Kelly Mond did little against Vandy but played well against 'Bama's defense, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs. RB Spiller ran for 946 yards (5.4 YPC) with 10 TDs last season but while he's averaging 7.5 YPC through two games, he's gained a modest total of 142 yards rushing.

A&M remained in the top-25 even after the loss to Alabama (at No. 21) but will have to win here, to stay ranked come Sunday. The Florida D is vulnerable and its pass D has just ONE interception, despite facing 80 pass attempts. Mond has the talent to match Trask. Fisher knows plenty about Florida as during his time at Florida St, he was 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs Florida. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 4:00 ET.

Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut  for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs). Florida also gained 196 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). Ole Miss QB Matt Corral threw for 395 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) but scoring 35 points doesn't help much when one's team allows 51!

The Rebels now head out on the road to play at Kentucky, which lost  29-13 last Saturday but played a very competitive game in losing at then-No. 8 Auburn.  The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like  a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards, so expect the Ole Miss offense to have a tougher time here on the road than it did last week at home.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3–only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the Regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish.

Trey Wilson started at QB for Kentucky last week and threw for 239 yards (one TD / one INT), with WR Ali catching nine balls for 98 yards, while RB Smoke ran for 62 yards on just seven attempts (8.9 YPC). However, three TOs did in the Wildcats. Kentucky should fare MUCH better against an Ole Miss defense which looked pretty helpless against Florida. Ole Miss enters having lost SEVEN straight on the road, with the Rebels last road win coming at Arkansas back in the 2018 season (note: the Razorbacks have currently lost 20 straight SEC games). The Ole Miss defense has allowed an average off 32.4 PPG in that seven-game road slide, while Kentucky plays its home opener having gone 12-3 SU at home the last two seasons. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.

COVID-19 has surely impacted the Memphis season as the Tigers opened their 2020 season back on Sep 5 with a 37-24 home win over Arkansas St (Tigers we favored by just under three TDs). The program has since had to pause activities and cancel games against Houston and UTSA, so the team's second game of the current season (its conference-opener at SMU) is being played almost a FULL month after its season-opener (unprecedented break between Games 1 and 2?). Unlike Memphis, Sonny Dykes' SMU Mustangs are 3-0, after a 50-7 rout of Stephen F. Austin last week.

The Tigers lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida St, right after Memphis won the AAC championship game. That victory gave the Tigers a 12-1 record and earned the school its first-ever New Year's Six bowl berth (lost 53-39 to Penn St). Taking over for Norvell is Ryan Silverfield, whose only game as a head coach was last year's Cotton Bowl. He gets credit for keeping QB Brady White and WR Demonte Coxie at Memphis. White threw for 4,014 yards (454 vs Penn St in the Cotton Bowl), becoming only the second Memphis QB to do so. He had 33 TDs and only 11 INTs, with Coxie as his main target (76 catches / 1,276 yards / 9 TDs). What Memphis didn't count on was RB Kenneth Gainwell, who had 1,459 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) as a freshman plus added 51 catches for 610 yards with three more TDs, to opt-out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. White completed 27 of 37 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State and  has passed for more than 7,500 yards to go along with 63 TD in his career at Memphis. Coxie had eight catches (one TD) vs Ark St but the star was TE Dykes, who caught 10 passes and two TDs, coming back off an injury that forced him to miss almost all of 2019.

SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three year s at La Tech, before getting the head coaching jog at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of  2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs He's off to a good start this season, completing 64 of 94 passes for 852 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. WRs Roberson (17 catches / 3 TDs), Gray (8 catches / 19.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and Rice (13 catches / 18.5 yPC) plus TE Granson (eight catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 26.7 YPG (6.0 YPC), led by Bentley (2380 yards / 10.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and McDaniel (293 yards on 5.0 YPC).

Why not SMU as a small home dog? After all, SMU has already played three games and Memphis head coach Silverfield admitted the team will have to rotate more players in and out in all three phases of the game. He added that "a majority" of his team is back and he is confident the players are in a good spot to play. "We feel like we are getting back where we need to be," he said. "Still not at full strength, nor will we be at kickoff. But we are getting to where we need to be to where we feel comfortable having normal practices." As for SMU's Dykes, he told MustangVision that it will be hard to get a read on Memphis given its layoff, but he pointed out that the Tigers have won a lot of games over the last three years and that they will be ready to play. "They may not have played for a while, but those guys have a lot of skins on the wall," Dykes said. "They have won a lot of football games."

In fact, Memphis has "won a lot of football games" against SMU. Last year's 54-48 win was not as close as the final score, as SMU scored two TDs (plus converted both two-point tries) in the games' final eight minutes (Memphis led, 54-32). Let me add that the Tigers' win in 2019 was their SIXTH straight over SMU, including wins of 28-18, 51-7 and 48-10 in Dallas. Note that while RB Gainwell opted-out, RB Clark gained 105 yards (5.3 YPC) in the Tigers' game vs Ark St, leading the way for Memphis to rush for 222 yards on 4.7 YPC (team averaged 186.7 YPG with Gainwell). That Ark St team Memphis beat 37-24 went into Kansas St and beat the Wildcats 35-31 as a two-TD underdog the very next week. Ask Oklahoma if Kansas St is any good? Meanwhile, SMU's 3-0 start has come against a 1-3 Texas St team (3-9 in 2019), 1-1 North Texas (4-8 in 2019) and SF Austin, an FCS school. The "price is right" for a SEVENTH straight win for Memphis over SMU, which practically guarantees a cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field last Saturday with a home contest against Kansas. Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in a 47-14 home win over Kansas. Baylor takes to the road this Saturday to face on Big-12 rival West Va, which has opened 1-1 after losing 27-13 at then-No. 15 Oklahoma State last weekend. West Virginia fell behind 17-0 in the first half and managed just one TD (Winston Wright's 70-yard scoring pass from QB Jarret Doege).

Baylor will need MUCH more from Brewer in this one, as he has thrown for more than 3,000 years the last two seasons with a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. The running game totaled 203 yards on 4.7 YPC, besting last season's average of 166.4 YPG. However, let's remember Baylor was hosting Big-12 doormat Kansas, which fell to 6-84 in conference play since 2010 (note: Jayhawks are also 2-52 SU on the road in that span against all opponents). Gaining just 352 yards against a Kansas defense that allowed 475.2 YPG last season (122nd), is NOT acceptable. Baylor's defense, which returned just two starters, wasn't tested by an inept Kansa team but that WON'T be the case against MOST (all?) of its other conference foes.

West Va QB Jarrett Doege was sacked five times vs Okla St but still managed to throw for 285 yards (70-yard TD pass to Wright, helped). West Va had a non-existent rushing game last season (973.3 YPG ranked 128th of 130 teams) but Leddie Brown ran for 104 vs Okla St and has 227 yards in the team's first two games. West Va did allow two, 100-yard runners against the Cowboys but overall, held an Okla St team that averaged 453.9 YPG last season to a modest 342 yards.

These schools have met as conference foes eight times and Baylor is 0-4 SU in Morgantown. Brewer passed for 277 yards and two TDs in 2019's 17-14 home win over West Va but back in 2018 at Morgantown, threw three INTs in a 58-14 loss. Note that while Baylor flourished with an 11-3 season in 2019, West Va was just 5-7. Yet, the Mountaineers held Baylor to season-lows in FDs (17) and total yards (287) in that three-point loss. Baylor expects to end its 0-4 run in Morgantown but as Mick Jagger once sang, "You Can't Always Get What You Want!" Home dog wins outright.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. I noted last week in taking NC St over Wake Forest that the Wolfpack returned TEN starters on offense, so we should expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020, as NC ST had averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak. Talk about 'hitting the nail on the head!' NC St won 45-42, rolling up 463 yards. 

The Wolfpack travel to Blacksburg, Va Saturday night to face Va Tech, which will be playing its first game of the 2020 season. Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one.

Looking at NC State's win over Wake, last year's starting QB Devin Leary did not play because he missed too much practice due to COVID-19. Bailey Hockman was the surprise starter and had a decent game, completing 16 of 23 for 191 yards with a TDP and an INT. However, NC St rolled up 45 points due to a rushing attack that ran for 270 yards on 5.5 YPC. RBs Person (99 yards on 7.1 YPC with two TDs) and Knight (97 yards on 8.8 YPC with one TD) led the way. The troubling issue lingering from the win was that NC St's defense allowed Wake forest to score 42 points while gaining 32 FDs (note: Wake scored 13 points, 10 of them late, on 15 FDs against Clemson).

Va Tech has to be really anxious to finally play a game and  after six- and eight-win season the last two, Fuente's 'star' has dimmed. Seeing a 15-game winning streak over rival Virginia in the team's regular season finale really hurt, as did a 37-30 loss to Kentucky in the Belk Bowl. However, Va Tech has NINE starters back on offense and 10 more on Defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster retired after last year's bowl loss but Justin Hamilton takes over and he was a Foster disciple. The team's back-seven is excellent and don't expect NC St to run at will like it did last week, as Va Tech allowed 139.3 YPG on the ground last season (46th in the nation).

NC St had SEVEN home games in 2019 but in team's five away games, the Wolfpack D allowed 38.4 PPG, as NC State lost by an average margin of 18.4 points. No. 20 Va Tech wins this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 4:00 ET

David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Duke instead opened at then-No. 10 Notre Dame and lost 27-13 (not bad as 3-TD dog) but last week's 26-6 home loss to BC was not 'pretty.' 

The Blue Devils are back on the road this Saturday at ACC rival Virginia, which will be playing its first game of 2020. Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he's led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory.

Duke's new starting QB, Chase Brice (a Clemson transfer), has so far flopped. He averaged 238.0 YPG passing but in 79 attempts, has yet to throw a TD pass (has two INTs). It sure doesn't help him that Duke's running game looks pretty sad, averaging 109.5 YPG on 3.7 YPC. The Notre Dame loss seemed like a positive, until Duke had five TOs against BC, including FOUR inside the BC red zone.

Without a game under its belt, Virginia is somewhat of a mystery. Replacing QB Perkins (3,538 passing yards with 22 TDs and 769 rushing yards with 11 TDs) will not be easy. We'll see who gets the start. The running game should be fine, as Wayne Taulapapa may have had just 473 yards but he's a tough runner who scored 12 TDs. More importantly, the OL returns all five starters, who are also seniors. The defense loses three key players but NINE starters are back, plus 15 returning players made at least one start in 2019.

Mendenhall is a quality coach and his team has put together back-to-back winning seasons while going 12-1 SU at home (7-0 last season). In his four-year rivalry with Cutcliffe, he's 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 17.3 PPG. Lay the small number.

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 1:30 ET.

Toledo made Matt Campbell its permanent head coach at the end of 2011, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS at 32-years-old. He coached four full seasons at Toledo (2012–201), going 35–15. The 2015 team peaked at No. 20 in the AP Poll. He left Toledo before its bowl game in 2015 and took the Iowa St job. His first team went 3-9 but the last three seasons (2017-19) he's taken the Cyclones to three straight bowl games. Iowa St was ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but lost its season-opener on Sep 12, 31-14 to ULL at home, as almost a two-TD favorite. It marked ULL's first-ever win over a top-25 opponent on the road (had been 0-26 against ranked foes away from home). The school's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones have not played since and now play at TCU on Saturday in their Big 12 opener.

This contest is not just TCU's conference opener but it's the Horned Frogs' FIRST game of 2020. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that' didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning seasons and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). However, TCU enters 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so it's almost a sure thing that the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (OK, maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19).

ISU's Brock Purdy has already set 21 school records in just two seasons at QB. He fought injuries all season but still led the Big 12 in passing (306.3 YPG), while throwing 27 TDs and just nine INTs. Just five starters return on offense but a key returnee is Breece Hall, who averaged 101.6 YPG on the ground with nine TDs in his eight starts as a freshman. ISU may have the best (deepest?) group of TEs in CFB, as the trio of Kolar, Allen and Chase accounted for 75 catches and 10 TDs. The defense returns NINE starters and don't be fooled by that loss to ULL. The Ragin' Cajuns scored on an 85 KO return and an 83-yard punt return plus added a 78-yard TD pass that accounted for 29% of its 276 total yards.

We haven't seen TCU play yet but we know that the offense returns only THREE starters, losing four of five OL. QB Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season but finished with modest totals of 2,007 passing yards and 15 TDs. The defense was first in the Big 12 in yards allowed (336.9 YPG) and 4th in points allowed (26.4 PPG) but again, only FOUR full-time starters are back.

With ISU's recent surge and TCU's recent demise, the Cyclones have won TWO of the last three meetings (2017-19), including a 49-24 romp in Ames last season, when they ran up 436 yards on a much better defense than TCU will field here in 2020. Purdy had an 'ugly' effort vs ULL (16 of 35 for 145 yards with no TDs and one INT) but I feel strongly he'll bounce back here. What's more, TCU's starting QB Max Duggan has been battling a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. He was cleared to play on Monday but who knows? His likely replacement would be sophomore Matthew Downing, who has not taken a snap since 2018 and has 10 career pass attempts. ISU is not often a road favorite but the last three seasons under Campbell, the Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in that role. HUGE play on Iowa St.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12 noon ET.

The only game played between ranked opponents prior to this Saturday (Sep 26) was last Saturday's 37-24 win by No. 17 Mia-Fl over No. 18 Louisville. There are three top-25 matchups on Sep 26, including No. 21 Pitt hosting No. 24 Louisville. The Panthers (2-0, 1-0 ACC) get their third straight home game to open the season, after wins over Austin Peay (55-0) and Syracuse (21-10). The Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) hope to 'right the ship' after a 47-34 loss at home to Miami. This marks Louisville's first road game of 2020.

Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinal were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. However, the Louisville D was not up to the challenge vs Miami, which rolled up 4763 yards. That said, the Louisville offense put up 30-plus points for the second straight game, with 516 yards (and 29 FDs) against a strong Miami defense. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 650 yards with six TDs and just two INTs, while the running game has averaged 176.5 YPG (Hawkins has 235 yards on 5.1 YPC). Outstanding WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards vs Western Ky and then added eight receptions for 114 yards with two TDs vs Miami.

Pitt  head coach Pat Narduzzi is in his sixth season and has led the school to a modest 38-29 record (includes TY's two wins. He's taken Pitt to a bowl in four of his first five seasons but Pitt has lost THREE of the four). Senior QB Kenny Pickett is in his third year as the starter but he's throw for only 492 yards with three TDs and one INT in the team's 2-0 start. he gets little help from his running game, which averages 137.0 YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Panthers defense has shined through two wins, allowing 154.0 YPG (third-best in the nation), including only 26 rushing yards per game, giving them the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation.

That said, Pitt's first two opponents have been FCS Austin Peay and Syracuse, which has scored a total of just 16 points in opening 0-2.Louisville's offense has great balance (see above) and is averaging 32.5 PPG on 501.5 PPG to open its season. I'm a big fan of Satterfield and the Panthers are a poor 8-14-1 (40%) ATS as a home favorite under Narduzzi. In QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins and WR Atwell, Louisville owns the three-best offensive players in the game. Pitt last started a season 3-0 back in 2014 and I don't the Panthers open 3-0 this season. I'm calling for an OUTRIGHT Louisville win but YES, I'll take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* ACC Game of the Year is on NC State at 8:00 ET.

Dave Clawson is in his seventh season at Wake Forest. He opened with back-to-back season of 3-9 but has led Wake to four straight bowls the last four years 30-22 overall0, winning three bowls in a row before last year's 27-21 loss to Michigan St. A fifth straight winning season (and bowl trip) may be asking "too much" for the Demon Deacons in 2020, as Clawson unexpectedly had to replace QB Jamie Newman (2,868 passing yards with 26 TDs and 574 rushing yards with 6 TDs), who is a graduate-transfer at Georgia. The multi-tool QB salvaged Wake's 2018 season and led Wake to a 7-1 start in 2019, before injuries set in. The Demon Deacons routed NC State 44-10 on Nov 2 and at 7-1, were ranked 19th in the AP poll. However, Wake stumbled to a 1-4 finish. Wake was originally expected to open  at Old Dominion and follow with home games against Appalachian St and Villanova but COVID-19 had other ideas. Wake instead opened against No. 1 Clemson last Saturday and offered little resistance in a 37-13 loss. Clemson 'called off the dogs' with a 37-3 lead and 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points allowed Wake to earn (?) a 'backdoor cover!'

Wake travels to Raleigh on Saturday night to take on NC State, which has yet to play a game. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's current 2020 schedule. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-20. NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters return on offense, so expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve  in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18).

Sam Hartman replaces Newman at QB for Wake but he was just 11 of 21 for 182 yards against Clemson and when he was in, Wake accounted for just THREE points. Wake's running game gained just 37 yards on 34 attempts and the passing game was severely hampered when WR Sage Surratt (66 catches for 9 TDs before getting hurt in the team's ninth game and winding up with shoulder surgery), "opted out" prior to the season. 

True, NC State St is "no Clemson" but the home team has dominated this series the last two-plus decades, going with a 19-4 SU and 18-5 ATS. Last year's game was a "no contest," as Wake won at home, 44-10. However, Newman  had 307 yards passing and rushing, while accounting for five TDs (3 TDP and two rushing scores). As noted above, he's now at Georgia. NC St opened last season 4-0 at home but was never the same after that 44-10 loss at Wake. The Wolfpack lost their final three home games but all came vs bowl-bound opponents Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. Prior to NC St's home loss to Clemson on Nov 16 of 2019, the Wolfpack were on a 15-2 SU run at home,  Note that the last time NC St hosted Wake was in 2018 and the Wolfpack were 19 1/2-point favorites. That makes Saturday's pointspread (I got NC St minus-2) look pretty tempting. "Big Play" here on the Wolfpack!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on Louisville at 7:30 ET.

Mark Richt's first season at Miami was 2016 .The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after a 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin in 2018. His DC Manny Diaz had already moved on to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Miami struggled for most of 2019, going just 6-6 in the regular season. The 'Canes then lost 14-0 to La Tech in the Independence Bowl, as the Bulldogs became the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. Pretty sure Miami hasn't included that factoid on its resume.Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St.

Both schools have opened 1-0, as Miami won its 14th straight home opener 31-14 over UAB and Louisville won at home over Western Ky, 35-21.The Hurricanes lost several players to either graduation, the NFL or opting out due to coronavirus concerns. That group included leading rusher Deejay Dallas, leading receiver K.J. Osborn, leading tackler Shaq Quarterman, top cornerback Trajan Bandy and the leader in sacks Greg Rousseau, with 15.5. However, in D'Eriq King (a Houston graduate transfer), the 'Canes have an electric dual-threat QB, King passed for 144 yards and one TD and added 83 rushing yards and another TD. That performance extended his active NCAA-record streak of 16 consecutive games with at least one TD pass and one TD run. Carson stepped in as the team's featured back and gained 134 yards (7.9 YPC) while scoring two TDs. Miami's known for its "D" and the team's "stop-unit" didn't disappoint, holding the Blazers to 14 points of 285 yards.

Speaking of "playing defense," Louisville allowed three TDs in its win over Western Ky but one needs to look MUCH deeper than the final score to objectively judge the team's defensive effort. The Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western KY's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the Cardinals had a nice effort. They had four plays of more than 40 yards and junior QB Micale Cunningham completed 19 of 34 passes for 343 yards with three TDs and just one interception. WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards. However, with extra attention being paid to Atwell, fellow WRs Dez Fitzpatrick and Braden Smith each had 110 yards in receptions (four catches each, averaging 27.5 per!). RBs Hawkins and Hall combined for 137 yards on the ground, averaging 5.5 YPC.

Miami rolled at home last year 52-27 over Louisville but the Cards' 2019 defense allowed 33.4 PPG (109) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). This season's D was terrific last week (see above) and while Miami's "O," led by King will be a tougher assignment, I 'love' the "revenge angle" in this matchup. After all, Miami is just 4-10 SU in road and neutral site games the last two seasons (including 0-2 in bowls, losing by a combined scores of 49-3). Miami will basically have to win here to cover and I'll take Satterfield over Diaz ANYTIME on the sidelines!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Southern Miss at 7:30 ET.

La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is entering his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marked the SIXTH consecutive season in which he'd led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH one. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. La Tech was supposed to open at Baylor last Saturday but that game was  postponed due to COVID-19. That makes this Sep 19 game at Southern Miss the school's 2020 opener.

Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was  no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. 

La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1973. Coming anywhere near 10 wins this year will be near-impossible, as the Bulldogs are currently scheduled to play just 11 games, assuming there are no more COVID issues. QB J'Mar Smith will be sorely missed, as he threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement will be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. FIVE of the team's top-six pass catchers return but none had more than Smoke Harris' 47 catches and he averaged just 7.4 YPC. Senior RB Henderson is back and he ran for 1,062 yards (5.6 YPC) and 15 TDs last season. However, the defense returns just TWO starters (nine of top-12 tacklers are gone) from a unit that allowed 21.8 PPG (30th) on 377.7 YPG (53rd).

The bright spot in Southern Miss' season-opening loss was QB Jack Abraham, who completed 69% of his passes and threw for 314 yards in 32 attempts without an INT (also didn't throw a TD). The running game remains a mess, as the team averaged just 117.5 YPG (121st) last season and was able to garner only 95 yards (2.6 YPC) against South Alabama. The defense can't be as bad as it showed vs South Alabama and I expect a big bounce-back effort by the Golden Eagles.

Southern Miss has been to 18 bowls from 1997-through 2019 (a 23-year span) and while I wouldn't typically play a team right after its head coach resigned, I almost have to believe that the players will rally around the 30-year-old Walden. Abraham had a good game passing back on Sep 3 (see above) and should 'love' going up against a La Tech defense that returns just two starters, having lost all four starting DBs. Southern Miss has had two-weeks-plus to 'stew' over that loss to South Alabama and I expect at least a two-TD margin of victory over La Tech, playing its first game of 2020. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Kansas at 10:00 ET.

Coastal Carolina visited Lawrence last season on Sep 7 (2nd of the season for both schools) with the Chanticleers upsetting the Jayhawks, 12-7 as a seven-point underdog. It was hardly a classic, as neither team gained 300 yards (Coastal outgained Kansas 291-280). Kansas took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on a 41-yard TD run but NEVER scored again. CJ Marable caught a 20-yard TD pass in the second quarter for Coast Carolina (miss PAT) and then added a short TD run midway into the 3rd quarter (failed two-point conversion). Marable finished with 148 rushing and scored both TDs for the Chanticleers. There was no scoring the rest of the way, as Coastal Carolina held on for the five-point win, despite THREE missed FGs by PK Massimo Biscardi.

Coastal Carolina was scheduled to host Kansas on Sep 26 of 2020 but COVID-19 has played havoc with the schedules of schools that are playing this season. The two schools kept the meeting but Coastal Carolina has to return to Lawrence again, for this meeting. That HAS to be an advantage for Kansas, which has suffered through a decade of mediocracy fostered by David Beaty, Charlie Weis, and Turner Gill. Les Miles went 112-32 (.778) in 11 full seasons as LSU's head coach (was fired after a 2-2 start in his 12th year), leading the Tigers to 11 bowls and two national championship games (won it all in 2007 but his 13-0 team lost to Alabama in 2011). Miles is tasked with changing the losing culture at Lawrence and said after last year's loss to Coastal Carolina that it was a game the Jayhawks should have won. "I'm not happy," Miles said. "This is not how I saw it going. This is not how our team saw it going. Our guys played with their hearts on their sleeves and did everything they could possibly do to win this game."

RB C.J. Marable (1085 YR on 5.3 YPC with 11 TDs / 38 catches with three TDs) will again be the focal point of the Chanticleers' offense plus benefits from four OL returning. Payton and Carpenter both made starts at QB last season and while both return, redshirt freshman McCall may push for a starting job. Coastal Carolina allowed 30.5 PPG (85th) and the defense may not be any better in 2020.

Kansas sure has its weaknesses but junior RB Pooka Williams (1,061 YR / 5.3 YPC) is KU's first offensive player to earn 1st-team All-Big 12 status in back-to-back seasons. QB Carter Stanley (24 TDs / 11 INTs) graduated and senior MacVittle (who red-shirted LY) is expected to play. The good news is that the team's top-two receivers return in Parchment (65 catches / 7 TDs) and Robinson (45 catches / 8 TDs).The Kansas D ranked 120th in scoring D (36.1 PPG) and 122nd in total D (475.2 YPG), which is fairly typical of that unit's performance the last decade.

Most close to program say that Kansas is probably two recruiting classes away from respectability but "The Hat" knows how to coach and knows more than a little about "revenge games." The Jayhawks will play only 10 games in 2020 and the school's nine-game conference schedule begins in two weeks (Sep 26). A loss here would be a devastating way to open. I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Western Ky at 8:00 ET.

Western Ky began the transition to NCAA Division I FBS as an Independents, in 2007 and was considered a reclassifying school for both the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to NCAA rules. Western Ky QB legend Willie Taggart returned to his alma mater as head football coach in 2010. The Hilltoppers went 2-10 in their first year under Taggart but he is credited with getting WKU's football program back on track after posting back to back 7–5 regular seasons in 2011 and 2012. The school wasn't invited to a bowl in 20011 but in 2012 the school's first FBS-level bowl game invite came the Little Caesar's Bowl. Taggart left WKU to accept the head football coach position at South Florida, prior to that bowl contest. Bobby Petrino stayed for one season but then Jeff Brohm posted an outstanding 30–10 record from 2014-16. He left for Purdue and Mike Sanford would last two disappointing seasons. Tyson Helton got the job for 2019 and he won C-USA Coach of the Year (9-4 season, including a bowl win).

Louisville has rich FB tradition but after Lamar Jackson left for the NFL, the team flopped to 2-10 in 2018. However, Scott Satterfield left Appalachian St and restored some glory to program, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St..15 starters return, including QB MicaIe Cunningham (2,065 passing yards & 22-5 ratio plus 482 YR / 6 TDs), leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 RY / 5.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and WR Tutu Atwal (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs). The defense HAS to get better, as Louisville allowed 33.4 PPG (109th) on 439.9 YPG (102nd).

Western Ky has 16 starters back including NINE from a defense that allowed just 20.1 PPG (22nd) on 335,5 YPG (24th). The unit's top-6 top tacklers are back. RB Gaej Walker is back after gaining 1,208 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs. Starting at QB will be Maryland transfer Tyrell Pigrome (7 career starts). These teams met in Nashville last season, with Louisville winning handily, 38-21. However, Western KY finished the season on an 8-2 run after that loss, including a 23-20 bowl win over Western Michigan. What has me playing on the Hilltoppers here is that they went 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season, giving them a two-year run of 8-1-1 as road underdogs. That's an 89% winning situation. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on Navy at 8:00 ET.

The 2020 college football season will surely be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its original schedule have decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and has scrambled to patch together a 2020 schedule that at the moment contains just EIGHT games, only two of which were on the school's original schedule (Houston and North Alabama, an FCS school). The first two games on BYU's 2020 schedule are contests against two of the nation's three service academies. The Cougars open Labor Day evening at Navy and play their second game Sep 16 at Army.

BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. Would BYU 'take back' that contract extension if it could?

Navy's Ken Niumatalolo took over for Paul Johnson back in 2008 and has led the Midshipmen to 10 winning seasons (and bowls) in his 12 years at the school. However, he and Navy entered the 2019 season off a brutal 3-10 year in 2018. The school's losing streak didn't last long, as the Midshipmen authored one of the finest single-season turnarounds in FBS history by going from 3-10 to 11-2, after beating Kansas St 20-17 (OT) in the Liberty Bowl. Navy's Malcolm Perry set a FBS record for rushing yards by a QB with 2,017, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring 21 rushing TDs. Navy led the nation with 360.5 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC while scoring 52 rushing TDs. Perry is gone but senior Dalen Morris takes over triple-option and had a strong preseason camp after appearing briefly in four games over the past two seasons. Navy returns its top-three RBs, including FB Jamlae Carothers (734 yards on 6.6 YPC and 14 TDs) and will once again feature a 'deep' group of RBs. Defensively, Navy was greatly improved last season, as after allowing 33.5 PPG on 426 YPG in 2018, the team allowed just 22.3 PPG last season (skewered by allowing 52 in a loss at Notre Dame) on 314 YPG (ranked 16th among FBS schools).

Getting back to BYU, the Cougars dealt with numerous injuries to last season's offense, including to starting QB Zach Wilson. Wilson was recovering from shoulder surgery early in the 2019 season but is healthy and set to go. All five OL starters return but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019 (team averaged just 159.1 YPG on the ground). Three standout WRs all graduated. but the good news is that TE Mark Bushman decided to return for his senior year. He had 44 catches last season with four TDs (has 125 catches in his career). BYU's defense allowed a credible 25.5 PPG last season and will return seven starters.

BYU's 'patchwork' 2020 schedule opens this cross-country trip to Annapolis and the game was not announced until August 6th, the Cougars have not had a lot of time to prep for Navy’s triple option. As MTSU learned on Saturday at Army, that can be 'deadly!' Now BYU is a MUCH better team than MTSU but also, Navy is a MUCH better team than Army. no 42-0 blowout here but at this 'price,' Navy is my Game of the Week!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NCAAF 2020 Opener is on Army at 1:30 ET.

Middle Tenn St was expected to open its season Sep 5 at Duke, coming off a 4-8 season. 2019 was an aberration for the Blue Raiders, as MTSU had been bowl-eligible in NINE of the last 10 seasons. However, in the era of COVID-19, plans tend to change more often than not. The Blue Raiders will instead open their 2020 season by traveling to West Point to take on the Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Army is coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-8 season in 2019 (more later) but talk about changing plans! Of the first SEVEN schools on Army's original 2020 schedule (from Sep 4 through Oct 24) the Black Knights won't play a SINGLE one. The biggest 'loss' being Oklahoma's first visit to Michie Stadium (on Sep 26) since 1946 being canceled. And so it goes. Army does have a 12-game season scheduled, beginning with a first-ever meeting with MTSU.

MTSU's Rick Stockstill enters his 15the season in Murfreesboro and he's led the Blue Raiders to EIGHT bowl games, although the school has gone just 2-6 SU and ATS. QB Asher O’Hara was an adequate passer last season (62.7% / 2,616 YP / 20-8 ratio) and he was also MTSU's best runner. He gained 1,00 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC while scoring nine TDs. The problem was, NO other RB reached 300 yards rushing. MTSU added two Power-5 transfers at the RB position but both opted out. Defense has never been a MTSU strength and after allowing 29.9 PPG last season, maybe it's a good thing that only THREE starters return.

Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, left the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018.

However, much like MTSU, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season.

Army has 13 starters back, including SEVEN from a defense that allowed 23.0 PPG on 342.0 YPG. Starting QB Hopkins is gone but both Jabari Lewis and Christian Anderson made starts last year. Lewis is the likely starter, after making five starts. Army's rushing attack averaged 297.2 YPG last season on 5.2 YPC and should give the MTSU defense fits, as Stockstill's "D" hasn’t faced the option since a 24-6 loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl (note" Navy ran for 366 yards on 5.5 YPC). Making matters worse, this trip to West Points wasn’t added to MTSU's schedule until August 10. With COVID-19 limiting all teams prep time last spring and this summer, properly preparing for the option seems like 'a bridge too far.' Don't forget, MTSU went 0-6 SU on the road last season, losing on average by 16.8 PPG. I'm expecting a COMFORTABLE Army win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Clemson at 8:00 ET.

Clemson is playing in the national championship game for the FOURTH time in five years and comes in as not only the defending champs but with a 29-game winning streak. However, Clemson is the No. 3 seed and will play the role of underdog when it takes on No. 1 LSU. No one could seriously argue against LSU being the No. 1 seed (and favorite). That claim was punctuated by its 63-28 rout of No. 4 Oklahoma in the semifinals (more shortly). Clemson edged No. 2 Ohio St 29-23 in the other semifinal, a game which could have gone either way.
Joe Burrow and the LSU offense 'steals' most (if not all) of the headlines but Clemson’s offense is similarly dangerous. QB Trevor Lawrence has 3,431 passing yards with 36 TDs and just eight INTs. FIVE of his INTs came in Clemson's first three games, meaning he threw just THREE over his last 11 games, while throwing 31 TDs (he has 22 TDPs and zero INTs in 180 pass attempts over his last seven games). Lawrence also has 514 rushing yards with eight TDs. RB Travis Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards / 8.0 YPA / 18 TDs) as well as 32 catches (1,932 scrimmage yards, 22 combined TDs). Etienne caught three passes for 98 yards and two TDs against Ohio St. Higgins has 56 catches (19.9 YPC / 13 TDs) and Ross 61 catches (12.9 YPC / 8 TDs). Clemson's D ranked first in the nation during the season in both scoring D (10.6 PPG) and total D (224.7 YPG). Clemson did allow Ohio St to gain 516 yards but Ohio St's 23 points were more than 25 points less that the team's nation's-best average of 48.7 PPG.

Joe Burrow was the runaway Heisman winner and entered the game against Oklahoma leading the nation's No. 1 offense (554.5 YPG), while averaging 47.8 PPG (3rd-best). All Burrow and LSU did was score 49 points in the first half against the Sooners, as Burrow threw for seven TDs (four to WR Justin Jefferson). Burrow would add a rushing TD in the second half of the 63-28 victory, finishing with 493 passing yards and eight total TDs. Burrow will enter this game completing 77.6% for 5,208 yards with 55 TDs and only six INTs. LSU’s is the first team in history with a 5,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher (Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1,304 / 6.6 YPA / 16 TDs), and two 1,000-yard receivers (Ja’Marr Chase 1,559 / 20.8 YPC / 18 TDs & Justin Jefferson 1,434 / 14.1 YPC / 18 TDs). Edwards-Helaire was nursing a hamstring injury and carried just twice for 14 yards vs Oklahoma  but he's had two weeks to get healthy. Lost in LSU's offensive 'explosion' was the fact that the team's oft-criticized defense held Oklahoma to 322 yards, far below its 554.2-yard average coming into the game.

Is LSU the "irresistible force" which can't be stopped? Clemson's offense averaged 46.5 (4th) during the season on 547.7 YPG (3rd), so don't sell it short. Then there's that Clemson D and if any unit can somewhat hold Burrow and Co. in check, it would be Clemson's.  Note that Clemson had out-gained 28 consecutive opponents before being out-gained by 99 yards by Ohio State.It's hard not to like (love?) Ed Orgeron but Clemson's Dabo Swinney reign of postseason 'terror' began with a 25-24 win over LSU in the 2012 Peach Bowl. Clemson's game-winning points came with just 1:18 to play against Ohio St and its D then sealed the win with an end zone INT with just 37 seconds to play. With that win, Swinney pushed his bowl mark to 9-2 SU and postseason ATS record to 10-1 since 2012. Throw in the fact the No. 1 seed has not won the national title in the first five years of the College Football Playoff and Clemson plus the points looks even better. In fact, top seeds have twice bowed out in the semifinals and are 0-3 in the title game. Make that 0-4. "Orange is the new Black?" How about "Clemson is the new Alabama!"

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Jan Game of the Month is on Sou Miss at 11:30 a.m. ET.

This year's Armed Forces Bowl (at Fort Worth, Texas) features 6-6 Tulane of the AAC and 7-5 Southern Miss of C-USA. However, Tulane and Southern Miss were once both members of C-USA, and this "Battle for the Bell" series owns a 30-game history. Southern Miss own a 23-7 record in the rivalry, which is being contested for the first time since 2010. It pits a pair of schools separated by just 113 miles of interstate highway. The Green Wave stumbled at the end with losses in FIVE of their final six games, including the last three, but will make their second consecutive bowl appearance after a four-year absence. The Golden Eagles miss out at an opportunity at the C-USA crown by dropping their final two games but are returning to bowl play after being left out last season despite reaching the six-win threshold.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FIVE of its last six (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win here to replicate last season's 7-6 mark. Dual-threat QB McMillan has 2,229 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs but leads the team in rushing with 704 yards (4.6 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as FIVE more RBs chip in between 240 and 569 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 11th by averaging 251.4 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG) but the "stop unit" allowed 35.2 PPG on the road, a big reason Tulane went just 1-5 away from home.

The Golden Eagles turned the ball over a total of EIGHT times in their final two regular-season games, falling 28-10 at home to Western Kentucky and 34-17 at FAU. QB Jack Abraham has thrown for 3,329 yards with 18 TDs and 15 INTs. He has two solid WRs in Jones (66 catches) and Watkins (55 catches / 18.6 YPC). The running game is a true weak link, averaging only 122.8 YPG (118th) on 3.6 YPA. However, Southern Miss has averaged 27.8 PPG (74th) on 411.3 YPG (59th). The defense has played reasonably well, allowing 350.3 YPG (36th) and 25.9 PPG (54th).

It's my belief that Southern Miss meeting rival Tulane is a motivating bonus factor. The schools faced each other every season from 1979-2006, then again for a home-and-home in 2009 and 2010. The Golden Eagles were left out of the bowl season last year despite a 6-5 record (note: their schedule last season was trimmed to 11 games when a September contest was canceled as Hurricane Florence threatened the Atlantic Coast). However, 'bowling' has been a "regular thing" for Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles mad 17 bowl appearances in the 21-year span from 1997-2017. That's in stark contrast to Tulane, which needs a win here for just its THIRD winning season in the previous 17 seasons!

There is a GREAT chance that Tulane's outstanding ground game (see above) will NOT be effective against a Southern Miss rush D allowing just 111.8 YPG (18th) on  3.4 YPA! I also really like the "bowl experience" that Southern Miss holds over Tulane. QB Jack Abraham has had more than a month to get over a 34-17 loss at Florida Atlantic in the finale, one in which he threw FOUR interceptions and was sacked three times However, let's NOT ignore that he became just the THIRD quarterback in school history to pass for 3,000 yards in a season in 2019 and has completed 70 percent of his passes in two seasons as a starter! He''ll face a Tulane defense that allowed an average of 35.7 PPG in going 1-5 over its last six contests. Throw in the fact that  Southern Miss has won the last SIX meetings between the one-time rivals and taking a TD seems awfully 'juicy' to me!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Cincinnati at 3:00 ET.

The Cincinnati Bearcats suffered a 42-0 road loss at Ohio State early in the season and didn't lose again until back-to-back games at Memphis to end the season. Cincy lost 34-24 at Memphis on Nov 29 and then met the Tigers on Dec 7 in the AAC title game (again in Memphis), falling 29-24 on a late TD.  Third-year head coach Luke Fickell, leads Cincy into this year's Birmingham Bowl, seeking a second straight 11-win season.  Steve Addazio was the first BC coach to get the Eagles to a bowl in SIX of seven seasons but was abruptly fired following their upset win at Pitt in the regular season finale. Yes, BC was a 'bowl regular under Addazio but he was only 42-42 in his tenure (team never won more than SEVEN games in any season) and was 1-3 in bowl games (last year’s bowl was cancelled to due inclement weather). BC has hired Ohio State’s DC Jeff Hafley to take over next season but promoted WR coach Richie Gunnell to serve as the interim head coach for this contest.

If that wasn't enough turmoil, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has also left the program to serve in the same role at Northwestern plus more notably, star running back AJ Dillon, who rushed for 1,685 yards (5.3 YPA) and scored 14 TDs this season, has declared for the draft. He is sitting out this game, so backup David Bailey will see a larger role, after rushing for 816 yards (5.8 YPA) and seven TDs. Sophomore QB Dennis Grosel in now in charge, after junior Anthony Brown was injured halfway through the season. Both have similar TD-to-INT ratios (Brown's was 9-2 and Grosel's is 9-3) but while Brown completed 59.1% of his passes, Grosel is completing just 48.6%. The team's leading receiver has only 27 catches and one wonders how BC's offense will fair (without Dillon) against the Cincy D (more later). As for BC's defense, the Eagles are allowing 31.7 PPG (96th) on a whopping 480.3 YPG (125th!).

The Bearcats also rely on a strong ground game behind junior Michael Warren, who has back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons with 33 TDs on the ground in that span. He's run for 1,160 yards (4.8 YPA / 14 TDs) this season, while fellow RB Doaks has also compiled 499 rushing yards (5.3 YPA). QB Desmond Ridder returned from a shoulder injury for the AAC title contest but completed just 16-of-36 passes. However, he ran for 113 yards and a TD in the loss, giving him 545 rushing yards on the season. Cincy is averaging 197.6 YPG on the ground (33rd). Ridder has thrown for 2,069 yards (17 TDs / 9 INTs) but like with BC, Cincy's leading receiver has only 36 catches. The Cincy D checks in allowing 21.7 PPG, good enough to rank 30th.

Taking a closer look and the 2019 season, BC opened and closed the season with upset wins over bowl teams Virginia Tech and Pitt, but didn’t beat another bowl invitee in the remaining 10 games. Meanwhile, nationally-ranked Cincy, which had a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl had it defeated Memphis in the AAC title game, only lost two games prior to that, at Ohio State and at Memphis, when QB Desmond Ridder was sidelined with a shoulder injury. Ridder returned for the AAC title game and the Bearcats led that one until Memphis scored the game-winner with 1:14 remaining. The Cincy defense comes in allowing 21.7 PPG but a closer look reveals that it allowed 35.0 PPG in its three losses (Ohio St and Memphis, twice), while in the team's 10 wins, allowed only 17.7 PPG. I see no reason for why the Cincy D won't contain a BC offense playing without its marquee player (Dillon) and with a QB completing less than 50 percent of his passes. Blowout alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rose Bowl play is on Oregon at 5:00 ET.

Oregon (preseason No. 11) opened its season on Aug 31 with a game at "Jerry's House" against Auburn (preseason No. 16). The Ducks dominated play in to the late third quarter (led 21-6) but the Tigers would hold Oregon scoreless over the game's final minutes, while scoring the game's final THREE touchdowns (game-winner came with NINE seconds remaining). Oregon would fight its way back near the top of the rankings by winning its next NINE games (37.9-to-13.4 PPG) and was No. 2 when it lost 31-28 at Arizona St on Nov 23. That ended the Ducks' CFP hopes but a dominating 37-15 win over Utah in the Pac-12 championship game earned Oregon a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Wisconsin  opened the season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll and started the season 6-0, while 'pitching FOUR shutouts!' The Badgers were ranked 6th in the AP poll (defense was allowing 4.8 PPG!) when they lost 24-23 at Illinois on Oct 19, as four TD favorites. Wisconsin lost 38-7 at then-No. 3 Ohio St the following Saturday, ending any hopes the Badgers had of a CFP berth. The Badgers did fight back to take the Big Ten West but in a rematch with the Buckeyes on Dec 7, Wisconsin fell 34-21, getting outscored 27-0 in the second half. The 'consolation prize' is this trip to Pasadena.

Wisconsin is ranked 8th as it meets 6th-ranked Oregon and is in search of a SIXTH straight bowl victory, which has followed a four-game postseason skid.Leading the way for the Badgers is junior RB Jonathan Taylor, who has 1,909 rushing yards (6.4 PPA and 21 TDs). He's just 91 yards away from joining Troy Davis (Iowa St) as the only players in FBS history to run for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He enters with 6,080 career rushing yards and could be playing his final college game, as he wrestles with the decision to turn pro.Oklahoma St's Chuba Hubbard an for 158 yards in his bowl game, giving him 2,094 on the season. Doing the math, Taylor needs 186 yards to become the first player since Texas' Ricky Williams to lead the nation in rushing in back-to-back years. QB Jack Coan has thrown for a modest 2,541 yards but has made mistakes (just four INTs, while throwing 17 TDs) but his only receiver with more than 30 catches is Quentez Cephus (52 / 16.2 YPC / 6 TDs).

Oregon has a very good running game (185.8 YPG ranks 42nd) led by Verdell, who has 1,171 yards on 6.5 YPA and eight TDs. Fellow RB Habibi-Likio may have just 337 yards but he's scored 10 TDs. However, the key to Oregon's offense (35.9 PPG ranks 15th) is QB Justin Herbert, who has thrown for 3,333 yards with 32 TDs and only five INTs. He turned down a chance to be a high first-round pick in the NFL Draft last winter and he enters the final game of his college career as the nation's active leader with 95 career TD passes. WRs Johnson (55) and Redd (50) each have seven TD catches. As for the Oregon D, it is actually allowing less points than Wisconsin's D on the season, checking in at 15.9 PPG to Wisconsin's 16.1.

Speaking of that Wisconsin D, it's become quite ordinary since yielding only 4.8 PPG on a paltry 174 YPG in its 6-0 start. Wisconsin has allowed an average of 25.7 PPG over its last seven games, including a combined 72 points in two losses to Ohio State, as well as allowing a season-high 493 yards of total offense at Nebraska on Nov 16.Bottom line is that the Oregon defense is every bit as good as Wisconsin's (maybe better?) and has 19 INTs (2nd-most in the nation entering the bowl season), which boosted Oregon to 8th in the country in turnover margin. After Utah got embarrassed last night by Texas (Longhorns won 38-10, as seven-point underdogs), Oregon should be motivated to restore some Pac-12 pride. Herbert goes out a winner, making his return for his senior season worth it.'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Va Tech at 12::00 ET.

7-5 Kentucky and 8-4 Virginia Tech meet Dec 31 in the Belk Bowl at Charlotte, N.C. The Wildcats were just 4-5 after a 17-13 home loss to Tennessee back on Nov 9 but ripped off THREE straight wins to earn a bowl bid for the FOURTH straight season under head coach Mark Stoops. Lynn Bowden, Jr., a WR turned QB, took over under center for Kentucky at 2-3 and finished 5-2. The Hokies have a similar story, as Herndon Hooker was inserted at QB with the Hokies at 2-2 and the sophomore led the team to SIX wins in its next seven games. Va Tech met Virginia on Nov 29 and a win would have earned them the ACC Coastal Division title but the Cavs beat the Hokies 39-30, ending a 15-game losing streak in the series. No doubt the Hokies were disappointed by that loss but Va Tech is making its 27th straight bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the nation

Bowden, an AP All-American who won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation's most versatile player, is the ONLY player in the country to lead his team in rushing and receiving, and averages 8.2 YPA, while producing five straight 100-yard ground games to end the season, capped by a career-high 284 yards and four TDs against Louisville. He finished the season with 1,235 rushing yards, 1,136 of which he gained in the final seven games, and 11 rushing TDs. Kentucky also has a trio of RBs who have between 515 and 757 yards rushing, giving the Wildcats the 4th-best ground game in the nation at 274.8 YPG (6.4 YPA). Don't expect much out of Kentucky's passing game though, as Bowden has completed just 46.8 percent of his passes for 330 yards (two TDs and two INTs). Stoops is a defensive guy and Kentucky is allowing only 18.4 PPG (12th).

Va Tech has no stars but a decent running game that's averaged 172.9 YPG (53rd). Hooker is nothing like Bowden but he did rush for 306 yards and five TDs. He's passed for 1,445 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. He likes to spread the ball around, with Tre Turner, Damon Hazelton and Tayvion Robinson accounting for 92 receptions for 1,434 yards and 12 TDs (no receiver has more than 33 catches). Defense has always been a Va Tech trademark and this game marks the final one for DC Bud Foster. He followed head coach Frank Beamer from Murray State before the 1987 season and has been in Blacksburg ever since. That includes the last 24 years running the defense under Beamer and Justin Fuente, who replaced Beamer after the 2015 season. After a rough start, Foster's unit peaked in November, allowing 9.3 PPG and pitching two shutouts, before giving up 39 points to Virginia. Va Tech's only other loss in its 6-2 closing run was 21-20 to Notre Dame.

Color me sentimental but Foster has a had a month to prepare for Kentucky's one-dimensional offense. Foster's defenses have posted 36 shutouts and have collected the most sacks (893) and second-most interceptions (393) in the FBS since 1996. I say Va Tech "wins one for the Gipper!" You get my drift, right?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Western Kentucky at 12:30 ET.

Western Kentucky was coming off a 3-9 season in 2018 and had a first-time head coach (Tyson Helton) to open 2019. Things couldn't have looked worse when the Hilltoppers opened the season with with a 35-28 home loss to FCS Central Arkansas (as a 10 1/2-point favorite) but by the end of November, the team had made a major turnaround. WKU went 8-4 and is now in its SIXTH bowl in eight seasons. Waiting in Dallas for the Hilltoppers for the First Responders Bowl is 7-5 Western Michigan, which is appearing in its fifth bowl game in the last six years and second straight under third-year head coach Tim Lester.

The Broncos' are averaging 34.2 PPG (25th) behind QB Jon Wassink (2,904 yards / 19-7 TD-to-INT ratio) and RB LeVante Bellamy, who leads the nation in rsuhing TDs (23), while gaining 1,412 rushing yards (9th) on 5.7 YPA. WRs Mixon and Moore have combined for 95 catches but just five TDs. TE Ricci has 47 catches and a team-high eight TDs. The defense is allowing 26.2 PPG (57th) on 414.6 YPG (82nd).

Starting QB Steven Duncan went down with a foot injury early on for WKU and graduate-transfer QB Ty Storey started the last nine games, throwing for 2,209 yards and 12 TDs and just five INTs. It helps that Storey was throwing to a pair of receivers that each earned all-conference honors in Lucky Jackson (77) and Jahcour Pearson (71), one of just four duos in the country to have at least 70 catches each. RB Gaej Walker was second in C-USA with 1,115 rushing yards (4.9 YPA / 8 TDS), reaching the 100-yard plateau seven times. The offense is averaging a modest 25.6 PPG (90th) on 380.0 YPG (87th) but the defense is top-notch, allowing 20.1 PPG (21st) on 337.8 YPG (29th).

Yes, WKU lost its opener against a FCS school but then defeated four C-USA bowl teams plus power-five opponent in Arkansas. Ty Helton was named the C-USA Coach of the Year, an award his father, Kim, won as head coach of Houston in 1996, the first father-son duo to win the award in the conference’s history. Western Kentucky comes in having won its last three games, including a 45-19 victory over Arkansas. WKU was 7-2 SU and ATS with Storey as its starter and I think that the Hilltoppers are undervalued in this matchup. Western Michigan hasn't played since it frittered away a chance to play for the MAC title (Nov 26) when it lost 17-14 at Northern Illinois as a 10-point favorite. Frankly, Western Michigan failed to impress in a softer MAC West and enters this contest with a putrid 1-8 bowl record that includes last year's 49-18 thumping at the hands of BYU in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. WMU falls to 1-9 all-time in bowls, as WKU wins handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET.

What a difference the No. 1 vs No. 2 spot in the final CFP rankings meant. LSU was able to leap-frog Ohio St after the Tigers dominated the Bulldogs, while the Buckeyes fell behind Wisconsin 21-7 at the half in the Big Ten championship game, before dominating the second half to win, 34-21. No. 1 LSU drew Oklahoma in the semifinals, where the Tigers are just about a two-TD favorite, while No. 2 Ohio St gets Clemson. The defending champs will take the the field in this year's Fiesta Bowl on a 28-game winning streak. Like LSU, Ohio St would have been a double-digit favorite against the Sooners, but instead the Buckeyes will take the field Saturday night  against Clemson as small underdog. It’s the second time in four years that Clemson and Ohio State have squared off in a semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl, with the Tigers routing the Buckeyes 31-0 in 2016.

Clemson is trying to become the first repeat national champion since Alabama rolled to back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2012. The knock on the Tigers is their relatively weak schedule and that 21-20 'squeaker' at North Carolina back on Sep 28 (the Tigers 'escaped' when the Tar Heels failed to convert on a two-point conversion try with just 1:17 remaining in the game). However, the Tigers have surged ever since that 'scare,' rolling to eight wins, while outscoring their opponents 51.9-to-9.8 PPG (no wonder Clemson was 7-1 ATS in that stretch). QB Lawrence did not play well early, throwing five TDs and five INTs in his first three games. However, he finished the season with 34 TDs against just eight INTs, throwing 20 TDs and not a single INT in his last six games (147 attempts). RB Etienne (1,500 yards / 8.2 YPA / 17 TDs) leads a running game that perfectly balances Lawrence's passing game. Clemson averages 294.8 YPG passing and 252.9 YPG rushing, while scoring 46.5 PPG (4th). The Clemson D ranks first in the nation in allowing 10.6 PPG on 244.7 YPG (also No. 1).

Anything you can do, I can do better," is what Ohio St responds with. QB Fields has thrown for 40 TDs and just one INT on the season (308 attempts), while RB Dobbins has rushed for 1,829 yards (6.5 YPA) and 20 TDs. Ohio St's pass/rush balance is VERY similar to Clemson's and the Buckeyes are scoring 48.7 PPG, tops in the nation. Ohio St can't quite match Clemson's defensive numbers but the Buckeyes come awfully close. Ohio St is allowing 12.5 PPG (3rd), on 247.9 YPG 95th).

The superlatives for both teams are endless but for me, it comes down to this. Clemson's dominating season saw them play just ONE team which ended the season in the final CFP rankings, and that was Virginia, at No. 24. Seriously, does ANYONE think that Virginia, which lost 35-20 to Notre Dame and 62-17 to Clemson, while also losing 17-9 to a 6-6 Miami team and 28-21 to a 7-5 Louisville team, is a 'top-notch" football team? Ohio St basically mirrored Clemson's numbers, while beating Wisconsin twice (current No. 8), Penn St (current No. 10) and Michigan (current No. 14), not to mention a 10-3 Cincinnati team (current No. 21), 42-0! Ohio St has been an underdog just SEVEN times since 2012 and is 7-0 SU. Make that "crazy eights!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener (Camping World) is on Iowa St at 12:00 ET.

Notre Dame (10-2 / No. 15 in the CFP rankings) meets 7-5 Iowa State Dec 28 in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fl at 12 noon ET. Both football programs have been around for more than a century (fair to say that Notre Dame has a more storied history) but will meet for the first time. The Fighting Irish are making their NINTH bowl appearance in 10 seasons but a hard-fought 23-17 loss at Georgia back on Sep 21 and then 45-14 blowout loss at Michigan on Oct 26, ended any "Final Four" talk for Notre Dame before the season moved to November. However, the Irish closed with FIVE straight wins, averaging 43.8 PPG in going 4-1 ATS. Iowa State owns wins over Texas and TCU plus its five losses came by a total of 21 points, including one-point losses to ranked opponents Iowa and Oklahoma (were two-TD underdogs against the Sooners), as well as a two-point loss to Baylor. Notre Dame enters the contest with an 18-19 record in bowl games, while Iowa State is 4-10 in bowl appearances.

QB Brock Purdy took over at mid-season in 2018 as freshman, after an injury first to starter Kyle Kempt and then the abrupt departure of backup Zeb Noland. Purdy completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,250 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs while playing in 10 games. The sophomore was the starter this season from Week 1 and enters this contest completing 66.3% with 3,760 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs (he also has eight rushing TDs). Jones leads the team with 72 catches (only two TDs, though) but TE Kolar has seven TDs among his 48 catches and WR Pettway six TDs among his 51 catches. RB David Montgomery (1,216 yards and 13 TDs) is now playing for the Bears and this year's running game is not as good. Hall leads the team with 842 yards on 5.0 YPA with nine TDs. The offense is averaging 34.1 PPG (26th) but ISU's defense is allowing 25.3 PPG (52nd) on 362.2 YPG (44th). That's a slight drop-off from 2018, when it allowed 22.9 PPG on 349.0 YPG.

Notre Dame features senior QB Ian Book, who could elect to come back for a fifth season in 2020. Book struggled at times early on but threw for 12 TDs without an interception in the last three games to finish with 2,787 yards with 33 TDs and just six INTs. Book added 516 rushing yards (4.9 YPA) and four TDs. He's become the first Irish QB to throw for 2,500 yards, rush for 500 and pass for at least 30 TDs in a single season. RB Jones (722 yards on 5.4 YPA and 5 TDs) helps ND's running game average 178.3 YPG (46th). WR Claypool is the team's best pass-catcher, with 59 (15.1 YPC) and 12 TDs. The Irish average 37.1 PPG (13th), while their defense allows just 18.7 PPG (13th) on 325.6 YPG (21st).

On paper, one could argue the Notre Dame side fairly easily, but not I. Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame team played in the CFP semifinals last season (lost 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl to Clemson) plus was in Fiesta and Citrus Jan 1 bowls in two of the previous three seasons, facing CFB 'blue-bloods' LSU and Ohio State in those games. My guess (bet) is that this Dec 28th game holds little allure for Notre Dame and I have NO intention of overlooking the fact that Brian Kelly comes into this game having covered just TWICE in 11 career bowl games.

Meanwhile, Mike Campbell came from Toledo to take the Iowa St job back in 2016. He was just 3-9 that first season but this marks a THIRD straight bowl appearance for the Cyclones for the first time since 2000-02. What's more, Iowa St was 5-2 ATS as an underdog in 2018 and has gone 2-0 ATS as an underdog in 2019. I'm taking any points available but expect an outright win by the Cyclones.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Holiday Bowl Blowout is on Iowa at 8:00 ET.

I'm calling this year's Holiday Bowl, "Rose Bowl Light," with the Pac 12's USC Trojans (8-4) taking on the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3). The Holiday Bowl sure has a Rose Bowl 'feel' but it also serves up a 'battle' between USC's "Air Raid Offense" against Iowa's defensive prowess. USC ranks 5th in the nation averaging 335.9 YPG passing, leading to 33.2 PPG (36th) Iowa counters with a defense which ranks FIFTH in allowing just 13.2 PPG on 304.6 YPG (12th). Looking closer, Iowa is allowing only 184.2 passing YPG, which ranks 11th. The Holiday Bowl venue seems perfectly suited to USC, with its large alumni base in Southern California and San Diego just a short drive away. However, Iowa supporters are well-known for traveling to bowl games and who wouldn't want to escape the snow and cold temperatures of the upper mid-west for a few days of sun and fun?

After losing 30-27 to Notre Dame for the 3rd straight year back on Oct 12, things didn't look good for USC or its head coach, Clay Helton. However, USC survived a season-ending injury to starting QB J.T. Daniels and a concussion to backup Kedon Slovis, among a laundry list of other injuries,ton win FIVE of its last six and finish 8-4 (22nd in both the AP and CFP rankings). Slovis has completed 71.8 percent for 3,242 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs. He's blessed with three WRs who all have at least 68 catches. Pittman leads the way (95, 1,222 yards, 11 TDs) with both Brown and Vaughns each catching 68 balls with six TDs. Remember when USC was nicknamed "Running back U?' No longer, as the Trojans are averaging only 126.3 YPG on the ground (113th) and their leading rusher has just 466 yards! The defense has plenty of question marks, allowing 27.8 PPG (66th) on 415.3 YPG (83rd)

NO ONE questions Iowa's defensive numbers (see above) but the Hawkeyes are averaging a modest 23.9 PPG (99th) on YPG (98th). QB Nate Stanley entered this season with a 52-16 TD-to-INT ratio in his previous two but threw for only 2,738 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs (truly underwhelming). Three RBs have rushed for between 414 and 590 (on 5.0 YPA) but still, Iowa is averaging a modest 139.5 YPG on the season (9th). That said, Stanley's a senior leader and fully capable of "coming up big'" against a mediocre USC defense. The Hawkeyes have ridden their physical style to the cusp of 10 wins for what would be the sixth time in coach Kirk Ferentz's 21 seasons at the helm.

USC's four loses have come by 10.5 PPG, while Iowa three losses have come by a margin of just 4.7 PPG.  More notably, those loses have come 10-3 at Michigan (current CFP No. 14), 17-12 at home to Penn St (current No. 10) and 24-22 at Wisconsin (current No. 8). I believe DEFENSE wins over offense and I'll take Ferentz over Helton any day of the week. Don't be surprised by a 10-15 point Iowa win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener is on North Carolina at 12:00 ET.

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a five-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. North Carolina won its final two games to earn bowl eligibility at 6-6 and  returns to a bowl game for the first time since 2016, looking for its first bowl win since 2013.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and then Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as that school's head coach and he leads the Owls into their FIFTH straight bowl, off an 8-4 season. The highlight of Temple's season was its 30-28 home win over Memphis, the Tigers' only loss of the season, who at 13-1 will play Penn St in the Cotton Bowl (New Year's Six game).

North Carolina relies heavily on freshman QB Sam Howell, who set several single-season school records on his way to being named Rookie of the Year in the Atlantic Coast Conference. He threw for 35 touchdowns with seven interceptions to go with an ACC-leading 3,347 passing yards. He's got some quality WRs in Brown, who caught  a modest 46 passes but averaged 20.6 YPC and had 11 TDs, as well as Newman (64 catches & 8 TDs) and Corrales (36 catches but 6 TDs). A pair of RBs, Carter (919 yards / 5.8 YPA) and Hill (848 yards / 5.6 YPA) , lead a rushing attack that averages 184.0 YPG. Along with Howell's passing, North Carolina has averaged 469.0 YPG (14th), although the Tar Heels are averaging 31.3 PPG 49th), which is less than one would expect with the yardage they've gained.

Temple averages 27.4 PPG (77th), behind QB Russo (just 58.6% completions with 21 TDs and 11 INTs) and a two-headed running attack featuring Davis (900 yards / 5.1 YPA) and Gardner (585 yards / 4.1 YPA). Russo has a quality trio of WRs, in Blue (87 catches but just four TDs), Mack (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and Wright (47 catches / 5 TDs). Temple's D allowed 23.5 PPG (43rd) on 365.0 YPG (46th) but most impressively ended the regular season ranked third nationally in red-zone stinginess.

Temple's senior class is the third-winningest group in program history with 33 victories. "I've really enjoyed my first season here at Temple and only wish that I can spend more time with this outstanding senior class," Owls head coach Rod Carey said.However, here's the rub. As noted above, Carey led the Northern Illinois to five bowls in six years and let me add that he also coached the Huskies in the Orange Bowl (2012 season), after Dave Doeren left to take the NC State job. What do all those bowl games have in common? The Huskies lost EVERY one! Should his 'luck' change here in 2019? I don't see it. Other than Memphis, who did Temple beat. Here's a list of the other seven. Bucknell (FCS), Maryland (3-9), ECU (4-8), USF (4-68), UConn (2-10), Tulane (6-6) and Ga Tech (3-9).

“Our No. 1 goal when we returned last year was to send the seniors out the right way,” Mack Brown said. “Everything we did, from spring practice to summer workouts to fall camp, was with an eye on winning enough games to get these seniors to a bowl game. Now, when this group looks back on their careers, they'll be able to say they helped get the program on the right track and finished with a bowl game. I'm just so happy for everyone involved in our program, but especially, that group of young men.” so far, North Carolina's "highlight of the year" was a 21-20 loss to Clemson (you know, the winners of 28 in a row), when the Tar Heels failed on a two-point conversion with 1:17 remaining in the contest. A win here will replace that game at "the No. 1 spot" and would be the 'cherry on top' of Mack Brown's "Carolina return." That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on La Tech at 4:00 ET.

Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016), which included a 31-14 bowl win over West Va. Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 (as a 12-point favorite) and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC championship game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin. Richt's DC Manny Diaz had already moved to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Is it really a surprise Miami had such a disappointing season (more in a bit).

The 6-6 'Canes meet the 9-3 La Tech Bulldogs in the Independence Bowl on Dec 26 in Shreveport, La. The Bulldogs play in C-USA and were 6-2 in the West Division, but lost a tie-breaker to UAB, which went on to lose the C-USA title game 49-6 playing FAU in its home stadium. However, unlike Miami, La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is finishing up his seventh season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marks the SIXTH consecutive season in which he's led the Bulldogs to a bowl game.What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH of the last five! Should I stop right here? C'mon, you know me better than that.

The Hurricanes' roller-coaster season mirrors the up-and-down play of QBs Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry, both of whom have had their chances but struggled with inconsistency and ineffectiveness. Diaz declared the battle open for the starting job in the Independence Bowl when Williams faltered in the final two games after seemingly turning the corner during a three-game winning streak in late October and early November. A weak offensive line didn't much help Miami's QBs, nor Miami's sad-sack running game that ranked dead last in the ACC (116.5 YPG). Adding insult to injury, leading rusher DeeJay Dallas (693 yards) will not play in this contest. Defense has long been a cornerstone for the Hurricanes but, despite ranking 13th in the country (307.6 YPG), the unit too often failed to get critical stops late in games. Miami's D allowed  57 points in its final two games, with consecutive 'ugly' defeats at local rival and non-power 5 school Florida International (30-24) and ACC foe Duke (27-17), which had come into the game with just two conference victories.

Louisiana Tech struggled down the stretch with back-to-back losses to Marshall (31-10) and UAB (20-14), before coming back to defeat Texas-San Antonio 41-27 in the regular-season finale. Senior QB J'Mar Smith missed the losses to Marshall and UAB, as he was suspended for violating athletic department policy. However, Smith returned for the finale and tossed three TD passes against UTSA. Despite sitting out two games, Smith enjoyed a career year while throwing for 2,814 yards and 17 TDs with just four INTs, earning the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year award. La Tech averages 34.0 PPG (29th) and after an opening 42-14 loss at Texas, the defense only allowed more than 30 points just twice

Breaking it down, both Miami's offense and defense has been erratic all season, so why should we expect them to turn things around here? Miami's offense should have problems vs a La Tech D that ranked THIRD in the nation in stopping opponents inside the red zone, giving up scores just 64.7 percent of the time. As for La Tech and its offense, the Bulldogs have won the last NINE game started by QB Smith. The Hurricanes have played in just one marquee bowl game since a 2005 , losing that Peach Bowl appearance 40-3 to LSU. That loss began a stretch that's seen Miami win just TWO of its last 11 bowl appearances and as noted above, Holtz has led La Tech to FIVE straight bowl wins the last five seasons! Dig deeper and we find that La Tech is 18-8-1 as a dog since 2014 and that the underdog has gone 9-3 ATS in Miami's 12 games this season. Ruston is just under 70 miles from Shreveport, so the Bulldogs should have great support, while is there any reason to expect Miami to be interested? Surely, the school's recent bowl efforts provide none

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 5:30 ET.

The Camellia Bowl on Dec 21 in Birmingham, Al features 6-6  Florida International and 7-5 Arkansas State. FIU is 'bowling' for the THIRD straight season, all under current head coach Butch Davis (1-1 SU & ATS), despite going 3-5 in C-USA (tied for the third-worst record in the 14-team league). Meanwhile, Arkansas St is headed to a bowl game for NINTH straight year, including SIX in a row under head coach Blake Anderson, although he's only 1-4 SU & ATS in the postseason,.

FIU became bowl-eligible on Nov 23, when the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory, a 30-24 home win over Miami (Panthers were a three-TD underdog). Senior QB James Morgan has thrown for a modest 2,248 yards with just 13 TDs but he has not made many mistakes (three INTs in 319 attempts). FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (802 yards / 4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and Maxwell (609 yards / 5.3 YPA and 8 TDs). The receiving corps is led by Shemar Thornton and Tony Gaiter IV, who combined  to make 97 catches for 1,189 yards and nine TDs. The FIU defense allows 26.7 PPG (61st), doing much better against the pass (178.5 YPG ranks 6th), than the run (205.1 YPG ranks 111th)..

Arkansas State has battled adversity on and off the field this season, as head coach Blake Anderson's wife died from breast cancer Aug 19. On the field, junior QB Logan Bonner sustained a season-ending injury to his throwing hand in Week 4, after passing for 1,052 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. However, redshirt freshman QB Layne Hatcher went 5-3 after taking over for Bonner, throwing for 2,553 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs (his pass efficiency rate of 173.5 ranked first in the SBC). Hatcher was named the SBC's  Freshman of the Year. He's blessed with an outstanding trio of WRs, starting with Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year (senior WR Omar Bayless). Bayless has 84 catches for 1,473 yards with 16 TDs (his yards and TD totals rank second to only LSU's Ja'Marr Chase). Kirk Merritt had 64 catches for 763 yards and 11 TDs, despite playing in Bayless' shadow, while Jonathan Adams Jr. (58 receptions, four scores) provides Hatcher a solid third option. The Red Wolves' D is a liability, allowing 34.8 PPG (117th) on 481.9 YPG (127th).

Basically, the Red Wolves need to outscore their opponents to win. I expect them to do just that, here. FIU was blessed with SEVEN home games this season (went 6-1) but went 0-5 on the road, while allowing 40.4 PPG. This is NOT a road game but it's NOT a home game, either. Arkansas St entered its final game of the regular season on a four-game winning streak (averaging 38.0 PPG) but then 'got caught napping' in a 34-30 loss to South Alabama, which ended a nine-game losing streak. I respect Butch Davis but I do not believe FIU can match Arkansas St score for score and this program gets some extra kudos for appearing in its NINTH straight bowl game. As noted above, the Red Wolves are just 1-4 SU & ATS under Anderson in bowl games but it would be a nice story for Anderson to cap the season with a bowl win, after losing his wife Wendy, just before the the season opened. Christmas comes a few days early for Anderson and his team.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SEC Championship Game Showdown is on Georgia at 4:00 ET.

The SEC has been the dominant conference for quite some time now and the question after the winner of this year's title game is crowned will be, "Will there be ONE or TWO schools from the SEC in CFP 2019's 'Final 4?' Georgia lost just one game in 2019 (a 20-19 two-OT shocker at home to South Carolina) but its resume also includes wins over three teams in the top-12 at the time of those games. The 4th-ranked 11-1 Bulldogs bring a defense to Atlanta allowing just 10.4 PPG (2nd) on 247.0 YPG (4th) to face a 12-0 LSU team (No. 1 in the AP and No. 2 in the CFP rankings) , which owns wins over then-No. 9 Texas, then-No. 7 Florida, then No. 9 Auburn and then-No. 3 Alabama on its list of 'victims.' The LSU offense ranks both second in scoring (48.7 PPG) and in total yards (560.4 YPG). This is LSU's first appearance in the SEC title game since 2011, while Georgia is in it for the third consecutive season.

The Georgia offense is hardly pedestrian, as it averages 32.9 PPG on 420.6 YPG. QB Jake Fromm is a three-year starter who owns a 21-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2019 and a 75-16 ratio in his career (he's 34-6 as a starter). However, WR Lawrence Cager (ankle surgery) is out plus freshman WR George Pickens is suspended for the first half Saturday (both Cager and Pickens have 33 catches, tied for a team-best). Junior RB D’Andre Swift ranks fourth in the SEC in rushing yards (1,203 yards on 6.2 YPA with 7 TDs), leads a rushing attack averaging 200.0 YPG on 5.7 YPA. He left last week’s 52-7 rout of Georgia Tech with a left shoulder injury but he's listed as probable against LSU.

LSU's Joe Burrow is the first player in SEC history to pass for 4,000 yards (setting a conference record with 4,366 yards) and at least 40 TDs (44), Burrow passed for 352 yards and three TDs in last week’s 50-7 rout of Texas A&M and is currently the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman. and he ranks second nationally in passing yards, touchdowns, passing yards per game (363.8) and passing efficiency (203). WR Ja’Marr Chase has 70 catches and leads the country with 17 TD receptions, while ranking second with 1,457 yards (20.8 YPC) Junior WR Justin Jefferson  has 81 catches and has hauled in 13 TDs. RB Edwards-Helaire has run for 1,233 yards (6.8 YPA and 16 TDs),  to lead a running game which averages 170.4 YPG on 5.0 YPA. The defense is allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) but has looked a little shaky at times late in the season.

Maybe I'm 'nuts' going against LSU's Burrow but this Georgia D will be the best unit LSU has faced all season. Talking about the LSU defense, it has allowed 38 points to both Vanderbilt and Texas, 28 to Florida, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Mississippi. Georgia KNOWS it has to win here or it will miss the 'Final 4.' I WANT the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Championship Saturday Game of the Month is on FAU at 1:30 ET.

Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin turned things around quickly though, winning NINE of 10 to capture the C-USA East at 7-1 (9-3, overall).

Bill Clark was UAB's head coach in 2014 (6-6) but the school shut down the football program in 2015 and 2016. Clark remained as head coach when the school resumed play in 2017, going 8-5 after a 41-6  Bahamas Bowl loss to Ohio. However, UAB won the C-USA West title last year (7-1) and then beat Middle Tenn St in the title game, 27-25. That led to a 37-13 win over Northern Illinois  in the Boca Raton Bowl to finish 11-3. The Blazers are back in the C-USA championship game again, after going 9-3 (6-2 in league play), advancing over La Tech (also 6-2) due to a 20-14 home win over the Bulldogs on Nov 23.

Things did not look good for UAB when it opened November with a 30-7 loss at Tennessee and followed with an 'ugly' 37-2 loss at Southern Miss. However, the Blazers finished with THREE straight wins. Two were over 1-11 UTEP and 4-8 North Texas but that Nov 23rd home win over La Tech, turned out to be the tie-breaker. Starting QB Tyler Johnston went down with a knee injury in early November (he did make a brief return in last Saturday’s West-clinching win at North Texas) and freshman backup Dylan Hopkins has barely been serviceable in relief. In his four starts, he's completed 37 of 68 (54.4%) for 483 yards with two TDs and three INTs. That's NOT good enough when one's team is averaging a modest 161.2 YPG rushing, with the team's leading rusher (Brown), accounting for only 462 yards on 3.9 YPA.  UAB's defense will have to "win it," as the Blazers are allowing just 18.5 PPG (15th) on 271. YPG (5th).

Keeping FAU's offense in check will be a tough job, as during the Owls' 9-1 run (7-3 ATS) run their last 10 games, they've averaged 37.4 PPG. QB Chris Robison has emerged as an effective game-manager for Kiffin, passing for 3,125 yards with 22 TDPs and just five INTs. FAU's running game is no better than UAB's (it averages 155.1 YPG) but as already alluded to, FAU has regularly put points on the board in its closing run (held under 30 points just ONCE in its last 10 games).

UAB was able to win 27-25 at Middle Tenn St in last year's title game, after losing 27-3 to the same Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro only the week before. There’s no similar quick-rematch angle in 2019 and while QB Johnston has not yet officially been ruled out for UAB, I don't think UAB can "keep up" with FAU here at home, where the Owls have averaged 37.2 PPG under Kiffin. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 start and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FOUR of its last five (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win at SMU to avoid falling to 6-6 (after that promising 5-1 start). Sonny Dykes has done in less than two seasons, what his SEVEN predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982.The Mustangs opened 8-0, rising as high as No. 14 in the AP poll (15th in the CFP rankings) but SMU welcomes Tulane to Dallas having lost TWO of their last three. It's tough to be too hard on SMU though, as the losses have come by SIX points at 10-1 Memphis and by seven at 8-2 Navy.

Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.

9-2 SMU's chance at a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game was lost in falling at Memphis and Navy but the team still has a shot at its first 10-win campaign since 1984. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams) will try to hit double figures in the win column when they close the regular season by hosting Tulane on Saturday. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams), could not overcome the team's D allowing 140 points (46.7 PPG) over its last three games (lone win came 59-51 over East Carolina).Then again, the Mustangs took a 21-10 lead into the half against Navy but were outscored 25-7 after the break and failed to put up points over the final 12 minutes. QB Shane Buechele (3,446 yards with 30 TDs and just eight INTs owns a big-time WR in Proche (95 catches with 13 TDs) plus WR Roberson an TE Granson have combine for 77 catches with 14 TDs. RB Jones has rushed for 1,124 yards on 5.3 YPA with 19 TDs (also two TD catches).

Kudos to Sonny Dykes and the job he has done at SMU and a 10-win season (how about an 11-win one with a victory here and in a bowl game) would be quite something for a program that was 1-11 and 2-10 in back-to-back seasons not too long ago (2014 & 2015). Tulane has not gotten the job done on the road (see above) and why should that change here, after its season has basically fallen apart? The Mustangs own a four-game winning streak in the series, winning with teams nowhere-near as good as this 2019 edition. SMU is 5-0 SU at home, averaging 48.6 PPG with an average margin of victory checking in at 18.0 PPG. Does laying 3-4 points seem like "too much" to you? It doesn't to me.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET.

Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday  to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one

Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' 

So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.

FAU and Marshall entered the 2019 season as the two favorites to win C-USA's East. FAU has won FOUR in a row to take over first-place with a 6-1 record, while Marshall and Western Kentucky are one game back at 6-2. Marshall is coming off a 24-13 loss to Charlotte, a victory that allowed the 49ers to become bowl-eligible for the first time since joining the FBS is 2015. The good news for Marshall is, the Thundering Herd own wins over FAU and Western Ky, so if they can win here and the Owls lose at home to Southern Miss (FAU is a nine-point favorite), Marshall would represent the East in next Saturday's championship game. Marshall welcomes 6-5 FIU to Huntington, the week after that school's first-ever win over a Power-5 school. The Panthers upset Miami-Fla 30-24 last Saturday as a 21-point home dog.

FIU is scoring 26.5 PPG (83rd) and allowing 26.4 (58th). QB James Morgan tossed two TD passes and the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory against Miami. However, while Morgan has not made many mistakes (two INTs in 282 attempts), he's completing a modest 58.2% for just 2,012 yards with 12 TDs. FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (750 yards / 5.0 YPA / 8 TDs) and Maxwell (589 yards / 5.4 YPA and 7 TDs) plus a receiving corps without a notable player. Marshall QB Green is no better than Morgan, completing 58.4% for 2,115 yards with 13 TDs and nine INTs. Like Morgan, his receiving corps lacks a "play-maker" but Marshall will own the best offensive player on the field in RB Knox (1,138 yards / 5.4 YPA / 10 TDs).

Marshall can't count of FAU losing but it can win here and then wait to see what happens tonight in Boca Raton. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! He's built a winning program and while Marshall is 1-5 ATS at home, it is 5-1 SU, averaging 31.8 PPG. FIU's win over Miami was a HUGE deal (most agree it was the program's most significant victory) and win or lose here, the Panthers' bowl destination will not be affected. Coming off the Miami win, how does one NOT go against a team that is 0-4 on the road in 2019, getting outscored 43.0-to-17.2 PPG!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.

The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champ will earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl game. No. 18 Memphis is currently the highest-ranked team in the CFP rankings and it will host No. 19 Cincinnati on Friday. The winner of this game will host the AAC championship game on Dec 7. If Memphis wins on Friday, it will be rematch with Cincinnati. However, if the Bearcats win, they will host the title game but if Navy beats Houston (Midshipmen are currently favored by 8.5 points ), Navy, NOT Memphis, would be Cincy's opponent. Got all that?

Cincinnati has only one loss this season, against the nation's No. 2 team, Ohio State (No. 1 in CFP rankings) in its second game of the season. The Bearcats enter this contest on a NINE-game winning streak but THREE of their last four wins have come by three, three and two points. Sophomore QB Desmond Ridder has played the last two games with a shoulder injury, as the Bearcats have failed to pass for more than 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 1997 (had 78 yards against USF and 62 against Temple). However, Cincy's passing game hasn't been much all season, averaging just 179.5 YPG (110th). RB Warren (939 yards / 4.8 YPA / 11 TDs) is joined by two other RBs with 400-plus yards on the season, as Cincy's running game ranks 34th (197.3 PPG). Cincy's defense is allowing just 19.9 PPG (23rd) and that includes two games in which it allowed 42 (Ohio St) and 43 points (East Carolina?).

Memphis owns the best offense Cincy has faced since Ohio St. The Tigers are averaging 42.2 PPG (8th) behind the passing of QB Brady White (67.1% for 3,074 yards with 30 TDs and seven INTs) and the running of Kenneth Gainwell (1,294 yards on 6.8 YPA with 12 TDs). Memphis enters with a streak of FIVE consecutive contests of 40 or more points and three straight games with more than 510 yards of total offense. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl?

Anything less than a New Year's Six one, at this point, would be a disappointment. To accomplish that, Memphis will have to beat Cincy here and again, NEXT Saturday. Here's the good news. Memphis is 5-0 SU at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-24.4 PPG. What's more,under Norvell, Memphis is 13-1 SU and ATS (that's 93%), in the month of November (home or away), averaging 49.1 PPG. I'm NOT stepping in front of this 'train!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

Sure there are state bragging rights involved in this year's "Egg Bowl" (always are) but Mississippi State has added motivation entering  its regular-season finale against its bitter rival on Thanksgiving night. The Bulldogs have made a bowl appearance in a school-record NINE consecutive seasons and can extend that streak to an an 10 when they host Ole Miss on Thursday night. As for Ole Miss, the Rebels can do no better than match last year's disappointing 5-7 season by earning a fifth win in 2019 with a victory over their bitter rival.

Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag was removed on November 26, 2017 and he became the 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) put some pressure on Luke. Luke didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. However, Ole Miss checks in at 4-7, including 2-5 in the SEC. The Rebels' hopes tonight will rest on rest freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee, who already has rushed for 989 yards and 11 TDs. In his last game (11/16 vs No. 1 LSU), he ran for a season-high 212 yards and four rushing TDs. RB Jerrion Ealy also set a season high with 141 yards rushing on only 13 carries vs the Tigers. Ealy is part of a trio of RBs who have for for between 481 and 640 yards on the season, accounting for 15 TDs. Ole Miss ranks 7th in the nation in rushing, averaging 261.5 YPG on 5.6 YPC. MacIntyre has not done much to improve the Rebels' defense, as Ole Miss enters this final game of the season allowing 27.0 PPG (62nd).

Miss St is just one win shy of bowl-eligibility but the Bulldogs 'limp' into this contest having dropped FIVE of six before routing overmatched FCS foe Abilene Christian 45-7 last weekend. Speculation regarding the status of Miss St head coach Joe Moorhead  is swirling, if the bowl streak ends Thursday. "We have to do two things: make sure we play well and keep the Egg here in Starkville," Moorhead said. "If we do that, then we will extend the season and get to play in a bowl game." RB Kylin Hill is the SEC's leader rusher (1,215  yards on 5.8 YPA and 11 TDs) and needs 176 yards to match the school's single-season record. The QB situation has been in flux all season, as Tommy Stevens has thrown for fewer yards (934) than backup Garrett Shrader (1,062). MSU must avoid another slow start, as teh Bulldogs have scored a combined 13 points in the first quarter of their six losses. The Bulldogs' D is slightly worse than the Rebels, allowing 28.8 PPG (75th).

Joe Moorhead (only previous head coaching job was at Fordham) was hired as the head coach at Mississippi State before the 2018 season, replacing Dan Mullen who had been with Mississippi State for nine seasons before being hired by the University of Florida. (Mullen led MSU to a bowl in his final EIGHT seasons at Starkville). Moorhead looks a poor fit at MSU, as this season's 2-5 SU & ATS record in SEC games attest. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has played much better in the SEC, going 6-1 ATS (lone non-cover was a seven-point loss to A&M as a six-point underdog). There has NOT been a home field edge in recent Egg Bowls, as the visiting team has won and covered each of the last four years. Look for Ole Miss to 'spoil' Miss St's bowl aspirations in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET.

California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West.

Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). 

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.

USC earned back-to-back road wins at Arizona State and Cal and moved into the College Football Playoff rankings for the the first time this season at No. 23. The Trojans are 7-4 overall and at 6-2 in the Pac-12 South, they are just a half-game back of Utah, which has two games left. USC only has this game with UCLA remaining, so a win would leave USC at 7-2 in conference play. That means Utah would need to win its last two games (Utes will be huge a favorite in both), because USC's 30-23 over Utah gives the Trojans the tie-breaker.All that said, Clay Helton's future as USC head coach is anything but settled (rumors of a possible Urban Meyer or James Franklin hiring are swirling).

UCLA visits the LA Coliseum 4-6 (4-3 Pac-12) and would need to win here and at home to Cal next weekend just to become bowl-eligible. UCLA was on a 4-2 SU (4-1-1 ATS) run after an 0-3 SU & ATS start to 2019 but last Saturday in Salt Lake City, got steamrolled 49-3 loss by Utah. After a 3-9 (3-6 Pac-12) record in his first season at Westwood, Chip Kelly would be hailed as a hero with closing wins over crosstown rival USC and a home win over Cal.

The Bruins have won FOUR of the last seven meetings with the Trojans, including a 34-27 victory last season at the Rose Bowl when Joshua Kelley ran for a series-record 289 yards. Kelley currently ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing behind Utah's Zach Moss, who holds an average-per-game lead of 106.1 to 104.3. Kelley has 939 rushing yards (4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and is trying to become the first Bruin since Paul Perkins in 2014 to lead the Pac-12 in rushing. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has had an erratic season but it's hard NOT to remember him passing for five TDs and running for two in UCLA's amazing 67-63 comeback win at Wash St back on Sep 21. UCLA's defense is a mess, allowing 33.7 PPG (111th) on 442.0 YPG (105th).

Freshman Kedon Slovis began the season as USC's third-string QB but due to injuries, he's played most of the season and has put up impressive numbers. He turned in his third 400-yard passing game of the season in last week's 41-17 win at Cal, completing 29-of-35 passes for 406 yards, four TDs and no interceptions against a Bears defense that had allowed just nine passing scores all season. He's completing 70.8% with 24 TDs and just nine INTs. on the season. He has three "big-time" WRs, who have all caught 60-plus passes for a combined 20 TD receptions. The best of the group is Michael Pittman Jr, who has 82 catches and nine TDs. However, for a school once called "Running Back U," USC is averaging 126.1 YPG rushing (111th), on 4.1 YPA. The USC defense is at best average, allowing 27.1 PPG (64th) on 403.9 YPG (70th).

Embattled head coach Clay Helton has plenty of motivation here but rumors seem to point to the fact that he's "OUT" at the the end of the season, no matter what. I expect expect UCLA to "play hard" against this hateful crosstown rival and noting that Clay Helton is only 5-10 ATS his last 15 as a home favorite, has me taking about two TDs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. The 2019 Bears survived four "close calls' to open 9-0 and appeared well on their way to win No. 10 and sole possession of first place in the Big 12 but somehow blew a 25-point lead in a stunning 34-31 loss to Oklahoma last Saturday. Baylor must regroup and resume its pursuit for a Big 12 title and a spot in the conference title game. The Bears need one win in their final two games to play for the league championship and they can clinch that spot by beating visiting Texas on Saturday afternoon.

Texas opened 10th in the AP's preseason poll but lost its second game 45-38 to then-No. 6 LSU. The Longhorns won three straight after that but then lost their annual game with then-No. 6 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, 34-27. A two-point win over Kansas was followed by a 37-27 loss at TCU. However, Texas eked out a 27-24 home win on Nov 9 against then-No. 16 Kansas St, getting Texas back in the polls (19th in the CFP rankings). However, Texas lost another "close one" last Saturday at Iowa St, losing 23-21 on a last-second FG. The Longhorns are now 6-4 (4-3 in the Big 12) and only hold a faint chance of reaching the league title game.

QB Sam Ehlinger rallied the Longhorns with a pair of TD passes in the fourth quarter last week and broke the school single-season record held by Colt McCoy with his sixth game with at least three TD passes. Ehlinger has 27 TDs and just eight INTs on the season, with WR Devin Duvernay hauling in eight TDs (87 catches). The problem for Texas against Iowa St was that the team ran for just 54 yards (Texas is averaging a modest 161.9 YPG which ranks 68th). Defensively, Texas has struggled all season, allowing 29.9 PPG (84th) on 449.4 YPG (110th).

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer ran for two TDs and threw for two, as the Bears opened up a 31-10 halftime lead over Oklahoma, but Baylor did not score in the second half, and ran only 15 plays on its last four possessions. Brewer has completed 66.8% for 2,532 yards with 18 TDs and just five INTs on the season. RBs Lovett and Hasty each have just over 500 yards, as Baylor averages 180.7 YPG on the ground (45th). WR Mims is Baylor's most dangerous pass-catcher with 50 catches on 15.3 YPC for 10TDs. Baylor is averaging 34.9 PPG (26th) and allowing 20.5 PPG (24th)

Baylor is the better team but I'm not buying Matt Rhule saying, "Our team learned a lot from that game," after the game. "They learned, No. 1, what we can be - for the first half we looked like not just a top-10, but a top-five team in the country. Then, secondly, the second half showed us what we still have to do." Texas has won FOUR straight against Baylor and eight of 11 at Baylor since the schools joined the Big 12. Throw in that Tom Herman is now 15-4 ATS as an underdog with Houston and Texas and I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET.

My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.

UCF totaled just one loss in 2017 and 2018 (none in AAC play) but the 2019 season has not unfolded the way the Knights had hoped. First came last-second l35-34 loss at Pitt on Sep 21, which ended UCF's 27-game regular season winning streak, followed by a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati on Oct 4, which ended the school's 19-game AAC winning streak. UCF fell for a THIRD time in 2019 when it went scoreless in the fourth quarter and gave up the lead in a 34-31 setback at Tulsa last week (note" Tulsa entered the game 2-7 on the season). The Knights will try to bounce back from that loss when they visit Tulane on Saturday. The Green Wave let a promising start to the 2019 season (Tulane opened 5-1) and a chance at a spot in the AAC championship slip away with losses in THREE of their last four games, after losing 29-21 at Temple last Saturday.

Freshman QB Gabriel is completing 60.6% for 2,806 yards for UCF, throwing 24 TDs against just seven INTs. WRs Davis (59 catches / 18.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and Nixon (41 catches / 17.2 YPC / 7 TDs) have each had excellent seasons. Four RBs have gained between 401 and 609 rushing yards for the Knights, as UCF averages 220.2 YPG (19th) on 5.1 YPA. UCF's defense has allowed a modest 23.6 PPG (41st) on 348.6 YPG (34th) but I'll look a little closer, in a bit.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! As noted, after a 5-1 start, a second straight winning season looked like a sure thing. However, Tulane is 6-4 entering this contest and after hosting UCF (Tulane is a home dog), the Green Wave will have to visit SMU (Mustangs are currently 9-1 and sit 21st in the AP poll and 25th in the CFP rankings). QB Justin McMillan is a true dual-threat, passing for 1,806 yards (13 TDs) and rushing for 552 yards (12 TDs). However,he was awful in last Saturday's loss at Temple, completing just 11-of-27 passes for 103 yards. McMillan is Tulane's leading rusher but five RBs have gained between 221 and 459 yards, allowing Tulane to rush for 255.4 YPG (11th) on 5.6 YPA. Tulane is averaging 34.9 PPG (27th) and allowing 25.8 PPG (55th)

Getting back to UCF, the Knights are averaging 44.8 PPG (7th) but the defense has struggled badly in each of its losses. UCF has allowed an average of 32.0 PPG in those losses. Tulane already has six wins (bowl eligible) but still needs one more 'W" to insure a winning regular season. Tulane sure won't want to have to win at SMU on Nov 30, so that makes this game a little more important. Yes, UCF is having a 'down year' at 7-3 but a win over the Knights would mean a great deal to the Green Wave program. What's more, Tulane is a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS at home in 2019 (outscoring opponents on average, 45.0-to-16.8 PPG), and a victory on Saturday would give Tulane an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1998! I want the points with his very 'live' home 'dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State.

Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs).

The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st).

Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET.

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch).

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF.

Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards.

A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th).

Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET.

The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season.

Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019.

Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th).

Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th).

The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET.

Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. The Vols opened 1-4 (lone win 45-0 over Chattanooga) but visit long-time rival Kentucky, having gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1. Kentucky comes in off a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26 but enters this contest just 4-4.

The Volunteers have started three QBs but junior Jarrett Guarantano has thrown the majority of the passes (161 of 243) and has 11 of the team's 14 TD passes (against five INTs). A quick check of the numbers reveal taht Tennessee is scoring 24.7 PPG on 349.0 YPG, while allowing 24.1 PPG on 3451.0 YPG (hard to make those almost identical numbers up). The Vols have just three games left and need TWO wins to become bowl-eligible. I've read where some think the Vols are surging but I view the team's recent 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run as nothing more than them taking advantage of some flawed opponents at home and covering a big spread (+34.5) while losing 35-13 at Alabama.

Kentucky knows all about QB merry-go-rounds, as an injury to starter Terry Wilson and ineffective play by Sawyer Smith has forced Stoops to turn to receiver turned quarterback, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden started the year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 348 yards but is now lining up under center. He's completing just 40.5 percent of his passes but has excelled as a runner, highlighted by a 204-yard game in Kentucky's most recent game, a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26. However, Bowden has also made some unique history in two recent games for the Wildcats. Against South Carolina, he joined Arizona State's Kalen Ballage as the only FBS players since 2000 to have at least six rushing attempts, three receptions, three kickoff returns and two pass completions in the same game. A week later against Arkansas, he had at least 20 rush attempts, 10 pass attempts and a punt return in the same game to become the third FBS player since 2000 to do so along with Kent State's Julian Edelman and Indiana's Antwaan Randle-El.

Both schools are two wins shy of bowl eligibility but while Kentucky has four game left, Tennessee only has three and one is at Missouri, where the Tigers are 5-0. Historically, beating the Wildcats has been near-automatic for the Vols, as Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee TWICE since 1984! However, the Vols lost at Kentucky in 2017, for just the second time in 33 years. That said, Kentucky is 4-1 SU at home in 2019 and 5-0 ATS, as the Wildcats covered their lone home loss against Florida, in a 29-21 loss. Revisiting that contest, the Wildcats led 21-10 early in the 4th quarter, before folding. My bet says Kentucky, not Tennessee, is the team surging. The Wildcats win at home vs Missouri began a closing stretch of playing FOUR of their last five games in Lexington, plus the lone road game is against a 2-6 Vandy team. Win here, the Wildcats could finish with EIGHT wins, before heading off to a bowl.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Stanford at 3:00 ET.

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but at 4-4 (3-3 in Pac 12), the Cardinal will need to win TWO of their final four games in 2019 to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season (ninth under Shaw). Colorado has a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker and after a 3-1 start, his Buffs have lost FIVE in a row (Buffs are 3-6 / 1-5 Pac 12).

Stanford comes into this contest off a 41-31 home win over Arizona, a game marked by the return of senior K.J. Costello, who had missed the previous three contests with a thumb injury. Costello showed few signs of any rust, completing 30-of-43 for 312 yards and three TDs. Costello has 'game,' as he showed last season by throwing for 3,540 yards with 29 TDs and just 11 INTs. Against Arizona, he connected with 12 different receivers. Senior RB Cameron Scarlett (700 YR / 4.4 YPA / 5 TDs) provided balance on the ground with 102 yards and two TDs. Stanford's offensive numbers are poor (22.6 PPG on 348.8 YPG) but with Costello back under center, that could (WILL) change.

While Stanford's offense is "on the mend," QB Montez and the Colorado offense has 'gone in the tank,' after a hot start. The Buffs opened 3-1 while averaging 35.8 PPG but Colorado 'limps' into this contest having lost FIVE in row, with the team scoring 14 or less points in THREE of its last four outings. Montez was expected to take a HUGE step forward in 2019 but that hasn't been the case, as he's thrown for a modest 2,242 yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs. However, it's hard to focus too much on Montez, when Colorado's defense has allowed 34.4 PPG (114th) on 480.7 YPG (124th).

Colorado has allowed 30 or more points in all NINE games and has allowed 333.7 YPG passing in its last three. That's "bad news' with Costello back healthy for Stanford. Thd Cardinal will likely finish with their worst record under Shaw but then again, Shaw' has compiled a 25-7 record in the month of November and he's got FOUR of them in 2019. I expect Stanford to finish strong (and extend that bowl streak). The Cardinal "got going" on the final Saturday of October with that win over Arizona (see above) and coming off a bye week, are "rested and ready" to roll over a Colorado team which is stumbling to the finish line. Blowout Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on TCU at 12:00 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 after surviving a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite. Baylor owns a 10-game winning streak and currently is ranked 11th in the latest AP poll, while opening No. 12 in the first CFP rankings. The Bears head to Forth Worth on Saturday to face the 4-4 TCU Horned Frogs (2-2 in Big 12). TCU beat then-No. 15 Texas 34-27 on Oct 26 but then lost 34-27 at Oklahoma St last Saturday. Head coach Gary Patterson but it well telling reporters last Saturday, "We're just good enough we can beat anybody we got in this league, and we're just good enough we can get beat by anybody in this league." , 

Baylor's latest win was a 17-14 Halloween night victory over West Virginia in which it found a way to eke out a win by fending off the Mountaineers' big plays. Baylor outgained West Virginia 453-219 but lost three fumbles. QB Charlie Brewer is completing 67.6 percent for 2,143 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. FIVE players have over 160 yards rushing, led by Lovett (495 YR / 6.4 YPA) and Hasty (439 RY / 6.3 YPA). Baylor owns a very balanced offense, averaging 280.9 YPG passing and 199.4 YPG rushing, leading to averaging 36.1 PPG (24th). The defense has played well all season, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG (20th) on 341.1 YPG (31st). 

TCU played a bad game at Stillwater last week. The Horned Frogs allowed 223 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher, the most ever by an opponent in coach Gary Patterson's 19-season tenure in Fort Worth. The Frogs also committed four turnovers. QB Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss with a finger injury but Patterson has told reporters he expects Duggan to play. The freshman has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs (three coming vs OSU). Like Baylor, TCU has excellent offensive balance, passing for 221.5 YPG and rushing for 220.2 YPG, while averaging 33.4 PPG (42nd). The defense is allowing a modest 326.2 YPG (25th) but 26.1 PPG (59th). 

Rhule has done a great job at Baylor but the Bears begin a brutal three-game stretch, starting with this game at Fort Worth. Baylor returns home next Saturday to host No. 9 Oklahoma and then travels to Austin to play Texas the following Saturday.  More importantly, how many times can Baylor "pull a rabbit out of its hat?" The Bears edged Iowa St 23-21, needed two OTs to beat Texas Tech (now 3-5) and in its last game, beat West Va (now 3-5) by three points. Even Baylor's 45-27 win over OSU was deceiving. The Bears actually trailed 27-24 in the 4th quarter, before scoring the game's last three TDs. How tough has TCU been at home under Gary Patterson. He took over at TCU full-time in 2001 and since that first season, the Horned Frogs are 89-22 SU at home, including 3-1 in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-22.2 PPG. The Horned Frogs have won FOUR straight over Baylor and ruin the Bears perfect season with a win here. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET.

8-0 Penn St is ranked 5th in the AP poll but entered the first College Football Playoff rankings at fourth, a first-ever for the school. Penn St's last game was an Oct 26 win at Michigan St (28-7), so the Nittany Lions head to Minneapolis with a week of rest. Like Penn St, Minnesota is also 8-0 (both are 5-0 in the Big Ten but Penn St is in the East and Minnesota in the West) and the Golden Gophers are also coming off a bye week. Minnesota routed Maryland 52-10 on Oct 26,  reaching 8-0 for the first time since 1941 (note: Minnesota has not started a season 9-0 in 115 years!).

Penn St is tied with Ohio St in the East and will meet the Buckeyes, who were No. 1 in the 1st CFP rankings, at Columbus on Nov 23. However, that upcoming game with the Buckeyes won't mean as much if the Lions cannot solve the Gophers.Sophomore QB Sean Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (1,931) and TDs (20), while throwing just three INTs. The Penn St running game is nothing special, averaging 172.4 YPG (57th). Freshman Noah Cain leads a fleet of running backs with 350 yards (hardly impressive). However, Penn St is averaging 38.5 PPG (13th) and that's "plenty good enough" with the team's OUTSTANDING defense. Penn St will enter TCF Bank Stadium allowing just 9.6 PPG (2nd) on 280.5 YPG (10th).

Minnesota head coach PF Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 when the Broncos completed an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season, although Penn St will be the first ranked team Minnesota has faced. QB Tanner Morgan has similar numbers to Clifford, completing 65.3% for for 1,761 yards with 18 TDs and four INTs. Minnesota's running game is better than Penn St's, averaging 204.5 YPG (31st), led by senior Rodney Smith (889 YR / 5.8 YPA / 7 TDs), who has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Big Ten games. Minnesota's D is allowing just 283.8 YPG (13th) but has allowed 20.0 PPG, about 10 1/2 points more per game than Penn St.

The QB matchup is 'a push,' but Minnesota has the  best RB in the game (Smith). Take note that Penn St's offense has slowed, averaging under 300 YPG its last three games, while scoring just 24.3 PPG (that's two TDs below its season average). I'm 'rowing the boat' with Fleck by "taking the points" with Minnesota.

Good luck....Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Temple at 8:00 ET.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF have put what could have been a special season for the Owls on 'life-support.' The USF Bulls went 11-2 (2016) and 10-2 (2017) but after a 7-0 start in 2018, finished with SIX straight losses. The Bulls opened the 2019 season 1-3 but have rebounded by winning THREE of four to reach 4-4

Temple’s vet QB Russo (1,873 passing yards / 16-8 ratio) has thrown for just 370 yards in the Owls' back-to-back losses, while Temple's ground game was non-existent (114 yards on 1.6 YPA). Temple does have two solid RBs in Davis (655 yards on 4.9 YPA) and Gardner (405 yards on 4.0 YPA), with both scoring five times. It's hard NOT seeing them being able to run against South Florida rush D allowing 199.2 YPG (103rd). Temple's D has been gored the last two games but in the team's 5-1 start, had allowed a modest 19.0 PPG.

USF has used two QBs this season and neither has been effective. Barrett is completing 51.9% with four TDs and two INTs and McCloud is completing 55.6% with 10 TDs and six INTs. The Bulls ran for for 347 yards in beating East Carolina 45-20 but the Pirates are an awful defensive team, allowing 204.3 YPG on the ground. USF's four wins have come over South Carolina St (FCS) plus UConn, ECU and BYU. The BYU victory is the team's "marquee win" and note that the Cougars are only 4-4 (Bulls won just, 27-23 in Tampa). UConn and ECU are a combined 5-13.

USF has has averaged 43.8 PPG in the team's four victories but just 8.5 PPG in losing to Wisconsin, Ga Tech, SMU and Navy. USF led 17-0 at the half last year at Temple, but the Owls came back to win 27-17, with QB Russo passing for 264 yards. I'm looking for Temple to 'shake off' its back-to-back losses and avoid the team's first three-game losing streak since 2014 (Owls' last non-bowl team, which finished 6-6). Temple becomes bowl-eligible with a win here and could be well on its way to matching, or surpassing, last year's eight wins.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 7:00 ET.

The Kent State Golden Flashes do not have much of football hiistory, unless you consider the school's ineptness, noteworthy. Darrell Hazzell led KSU to an 11-3 season in 2012, the school's first winning season since 2001 (6-5). FYI, prior to 2001, KSU had 13 consecutive losing seasons. Hazzell used that 2012 season to get the job at Purdue and by the way, he was fired after 3 1/2 seasons in which he was 9-33. Getting back to KSU, the Golden Flashes have had SIX straight losing season since Hazzell jumped ship, including current head coach Sean Lewis' 2-10 record in 2018 (his first at the school). The Golden Flashes are 3-5 here in 2019. In stark contrast, Toledo has had 21 winning seasons in its last 25. The Rockets entered the current season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 5-3, is well on their way to another winning season and bowl appearance in 2019. Both schools have been off since Oct 26, as the month of November brings "MACtion,"with the conference playing a plethora of non-Saturday games through the day after Thanksgiving.

Head coach Sean Lewis started the season with Woody Barrett under center but he was quickly replaced by junior Dustin Crum, a decision that has turned out well. Crum is completing 67.0% for 1,345 yards with 10Tds and just one INT. He is also the team's leading rusher, as KSU is averaging a middle-of-the-road 170.8 YPG on the ground (61st). Kent is averaging only 23.9 PPG (100th) on 365.8 YPG (96th). Defensively, KSU is allowing 30.9 PPG (93rd) on 467.8 YPG (119th).

Toledo has some QB issues, as both Mitchell Guadagni and Carter Bradley are dealing with injuries. Toldeo turned Eli Peters in its last game and Peters completed 9 of 18 for just 138 yards but threw two TDs and zero INTs (note: Peters threw 18 TDs vs 7 INTs in 2018). RB Bryant Koback ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and he has run for 985 yards on the season (6.6 YPC and 8 TDs). Toledo ranks 13th in rushing, averaging 245.0 YPG.

Toledo is NOT in good shape in the highly competitive MAC West but Toledo faces an excellent matchup here, as its excellent running game (see above) faces a KSU rush D which is allowing 128th in the nation at 250.9 YPG. Kent St is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019, getting outscored on average, 36.2-to-17.4 PPG. This marks Kent's first game against a West opponent in 2019 and it can't be ignored that the Golden Flashes are just 1-12 vs West opponents going back to 2014. Series history reveals that Toledo has won 11 of 13 vs Kent since 1988 and that Kent has not won at Toledo since 1977! I noted earlier that Toledo has posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and the Rockets entered the current season 43-12 SU at home . The Rockets are 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 35.2-to-19.8 PPG. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET.

Jeff Tedford came to in 2017 and led a team which went 1-11 in 2016 to a 10-4 record in 2017and then to a 12-2 record in 2018. However, most anticipated that 2019 would be a rebuilding one for the Bulldogs and that has been the case. Fresno is 3-4 overall (1-2 MWC) and travels to Hawaii off a 41-31 home loss to Colorado St. Hawaii checks in at 5-3 (2-2 in MWC) and this contest with Fresno St opens a stretch in which Hawaii will play FOUR of its final five games at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu (13-game schedule).

Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna is completing 62.8% for 1,655 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs.The team has suffered injuries to its RB group and checks in averaging 166.9 YPG (70th). That said, FSU has averaged 33.0 PPG (36th). The problem for FSU in 2019 has been a defense that allowed just 14.1 PPG (2018) and 17.9 (2017), has allowed 31.0 PPG (95th) in 2019.

Hawaii QB Cole McDonald is completing 65.5% for 2,521 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs (Hawaii ranks 3rd in the nation, averaging 354.5 YPG through the air). Hawaii's defense is even worse than Fresno's, allowing 35.4 PPG (120th) on 437.8 YPG (104th).

Fresno has won SEVEN of the last eight meetings but TY's Fresno edition only has wins over Sacramento St (FCS), New Mexico St (0-8) and UNLV (2-6). The Rainbow Warriors have a much more balanced offensive attack and are staring down a bowl bid with this contest, as well as home games with San Jose St and Army still to go.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

Nevada began 2019 with a 34-31 home upset of Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. The Wolf Pack edged San Jose St 41-38 at home to open October but have since lost 36-10 at Utah St and 31-3 at Wyoming. The Wolf Pack return home this Saturday at 4-4 (1-3 in MWC) to host 2-6 New Mexico (0-4 MWC). The Lobos enter this contest on a five-game slide.

Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos beat Sam Houston St (FCS ) and New Mexico St (currently 0-8) in its first three games but as noted above, has now lost FIVE in a row. New Mexico owns a solid running game (211.8 YPG ranks 25th) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 37.6 PPG (126th) on 505.6 YPG (129th).

Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii but the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.1 PPG (117th) on 357.2 YPG (100th). However, here's the rub. These schools have met just seven times (series is tied 3-3-1) but the home team is 5-1-1. Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 61-28 SU since 2005 and a victory here puts Nevada just ONE win away from bowl eligibility, with games at Fresno St (3-4) and home to UNLV (2-6) still left on the schedule. As for New Mexico, it's time for Davie to go!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on USC at 8:00 ET.

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Memphis at 7:30 ET.

Could anyone have possibly imagined at the start of the 2019 season that this Nov 2 game featuring SMU at Memphis would find ESPN's "GameDay" descending on Memphis for its pregame show. However, that's what we have as 8-0 SMU is one just NINE unbeatens in CFB and carries its No. 15 ranking into the Liberty Bowl to battle 7-1 Memphis, which is ranked 24th. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU is off to its best start since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. Memphis' Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl. The winner of this game will likely hold the "inside track" on a New Years' Day Bowl (highest-ranked school from the Group of Five will earn a berth in the Cotton Bowl).

SMU didn't quite meet Dykes' standards last weekend at Houston but the Mustangs never trailed and managed to hold on for a 34-31 victory for their first 4-0 start in conference play since 1986. Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele is completing 63.2% for 2,325 yards (AAC-best 290.6 YPG with 20 TDs and just three INTs. RB Xavier Jones leads SMU with 884 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) for a team averaging 202.8 YPG on the ground (32nd). That nice balance has seen SMU score at least 34 points in every game and enters the contest ranked sixth nationally in scoring offense (43.0 PPG). Defensively, SMU is no better than middle-of-the pack, allowing 27.8 PPG (67th) on 387.5 YPG (60th).

Memphis knows all about "close calls," after holding on for a 42-41 comeback victory last weekend, when Tulsa's Jacob Rainey missed a 29-yard FG attempt as time expired. As the press release from Memphis' sports information department noted following that one-point victory, "Sometimes, a memorable season needs the assistance of a fortunate break." RB Kenneth Gainwell posted his sixth consecutive 100-yard game and scored a season-high three TDs for the Tigers. He's got 979 yards on the season (7.1 YPC / 11 TDs) and currently owns an FBS-best average of 177.4 scrimmage yards per game. QB Brady White's numbers rank right with Buechele's, completing 69.0% for 2,014 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. The Memphis D is better than SMU's, but not by all that much. Memphis is allowing 23.0 PPG (42nd) on 375.0 YPG (54th).

Sure, Memphis was fortunate last week at Tulsa but SMU has also had some good fortune, with FOUR four wins by seven points or less, including a 34-31 win over a 3-5 Houston team last Saturday (note: SMU was outgained 510-385) plus a 43-37 three-OT win back on Oct 5 at HOME, over the same Tulsa team that almost beat Memphis last Saturday (note: Tulsa sits just 2-6). Dykes has done a remarkable job at SMU but this team is 'ripe for the plucking' and Memphis has all the tools to put an end to the Mustangs' perfect season. The Tigers' ONLY loss of 2019 was a two-point one at Temple, when the Tigers committed FOUR turnovers. Memphis has been great at home under Norvell, going 18-4 SU in his tenure, including 4-0 in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 38.0-to-18.5 PPG. Looking for a 'clincher?' How about two? Memphis has won FIVE straight over SMU (average score 43-13) and under Norvell (1st season was 2016), Memphis is 10-1 SU and ATS (that's 91%), in the month of November, averaging 49.0 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on Washington at 4:00 ET.

Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll, while Utah checked in right behind them at No. 14. However, as the two Pac-12 schools meet Saturday in Seattle, Utah is ranked 9th in the latest AP poll (7-1 / 3-1 in Pac-12), while Washington is unranked at 5-3 (2-3 in Pac-12). Utah vists Washington in the midst of a dominating defensive stretch, holding opponents to just 23 points during a four-game winning streak, while scoring 146 points (36.5 PPG). The streak began after the Utes lost their lone game of 2019, 30-23 at USC on Sep 20. The Huskies are coming off a bye week, getting a much-need break after losing 35-31 at home against now-No. 7 Oregon on Oct 19 (Washington led 28-14 and 31-21 in that one).

Utah's D gets most of the attention (10.2 P PG ranks 4th and 231.2 YPG ranks 3rd), as the Utes have held four teams to seven or fewer points this season. However, Utah's offense is averaging 33.1 PPG (38th) on 452.4 YPG (30th). Senior QB Tyler Huntley is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards and 10 TDs, while throwing just one interception. He is the 5th QB in program history to top 6,000 career yards (6,037). Senior RB Zack Moss (728 rushing yards / 6.6 YPC / 10 TDs) has set records for career rushing TDs (33) and career 100-yard games (15) plus holds the Utah's career rushing yardage mark of 3,379.

Obviously, Washington is a disappointment with three losses but head coach Chris Petersen has had a bye week to prepare for the challenge of moving the ball against the Utes. Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's thrown three or more TD passes in four different games, completing 67.4 percent for 1,981 yards,with 16 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (663 RY / 5.8 YPC / 7 TDs). Washington is averaging 35.8 PPG (28th) and most teams would be happy with a defense allowing 21.5 PPG (33rd).

Hopes of a Pac-12 title are pretty much 'dead' (Huskies are 2-3 in the Pac-12 North while the Ducks are 5-0) but Petersen is a quality coach and Washington a quality program which will play with plenty of pride. Utah was not able to win at USC (allowed 30 points) and the Huskies have totally dominated the Utes in this series, winning 12 of 13 all-time meetings. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET.

No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia square off in Jacksonville on Saturday. The programs first met in 1915 and have played every season since 1926 except for a war-time interruption in 1943. It is one of the most prominent rivalry games in college football, and has been held in Jacksonville, Florida since 1933, with only two exceptions, making it one of the few remaining neutral-site rivalries in college football. It's earned it the nickname of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." The winner of this game will gain the inside track to the SEC East Division title and a spot in the SEC championship game (Dec 7).

Both teams were off last week and Georgia enters 6-1 (3-1 in the SEC). Recent series history tells us that the team that rushes for the most yards will win the rivalry contest. The team that has won the rushing battle has won this matchup each of the past 13 years, which could be good news for a Georgia. RB Swift has 752 yards rushing (6.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and leads a Georgia rushing game that is tops in the SEC, averaging 238.4 YPG (ranks 16th nationally). QB Jake Fromm is now a junior but while he's completing 70.7% of his passes, he has a modest nine TD passes (just three INTs), after producing ratios of 24-7 as a freshman and 30-6 as a sophomore. The Bulldogs do own an outstanding defense, allowing just 10.6 PPG (5th) on 267.1 YPG (7th).

It's unlikely that Florida will out-rush Georgia, as the Gators leading rusher is Perine (a modest 460 yards / 4.6 YPC) and team is averaging only 142.8 YPG (90th). However, the Gators may just have an edge at QB (I believe they do), as since taking over for the injured Feleipe Franks, junior Kyle Trask has passed for 1,351 yards and 13 TDs (just 4 INTs) while completing 67.1 percent of his passes.It sure helps that he has a deep set of receivers, as Florida is one of three FBS schools (Eastern Michigan and Washington State are the others) to have four players with at least 275 receiving yards, at least 20 receptions and at least two TDs. Florida's D may not quite be in Georgia's class but the Gators are allowing just 15.8 PPG (12th) on 323.4 YPG (25th).

Both schools have one loss, with each losing on the same day (Oct 12). Florida lost a 42-28 decision at now-No. 1 LSU, while Georgia lost 20-17 in double overtime at HOME against South Carolina (Bulldogs were a three-TD favorite). The Gators' 42-28 loss at LSU was MUCH closer than the final score. Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! Meanwhile, Georgia's home loss to South Carolina (Gamecocks are currently 3-5, after losing 41-21 to a bad Tennessee team), was just plain embarrassing. Fromm threw THREE interceptions and Georgia's offense was only able to put up 17 points against a defense that has since allowed 38 points at home to Florida and 41 points at Tennessee.

Florida dominated then-No. 7 Auburn, holding an offense that has averaged 34.2 PPG on 415.4 YPG to 13 points and 269 yards in an 11-point win. Then, as noted above, Florida went toe-to-toe at LSU. In contrast, in Georgia lone game games vs a ranked opponent (at home against then-No. 7 Notre Dame), the Bulldogs barely got by, winning 23-17 (as 15.5-point favorite), as Fromm passed for just 187 yards. That win hardly looks impressive now, after Michigan exposed Notre Dame as a 'fraud,' routing the Fighting Irish 45-14 last Saturday. My bet says Fla handles Ga in this one and best of all, we are getting about a TD!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Central Michigan at 12:00 ET.

The 3-5 Northern Illinois Huskies travel to Mount Pleasant, Mi to take on the 5-4 Central Michigan Chippewas. Both schools play in the MAC West, where Ball St leads the way at 3-1. NIU is 2-2 and CMU 3-2, so the winner of this game will still be 'alive' for a shot to reach the MAC championship game. The Huskies are coming off a 49-0 romp over Akron but the Zips are 0-8 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 13 in a row. As for the Chippewas, they got hammered 43-20 at Buffalo last Saturday, snapping a three-game winning streak.

Marcus Childers started at QB fro NIU against Akron (Ross Bowers is recovering from a concussion) and while he only attempted nine passes, completing seven for 71 yards, he threw three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU ran for 274 yards but on the season, the Huskies are averaging just 130.9 YPG on the ground (106th). NIU averages 24.9 PPG (94th), while allowing 25.4 PPG (51st). Word is that Bowers is probable for this contest but he's completing a modest 57.3% with just five TDs and five INTs. Is that good or bad news?

CMU has used two QBs this season as well, David Moore (57.3% / 5-4 ratio) and Quinten Dormady (63.7% / 8-4 ratio). Moore was suspended and hasn't played since Oct 5, while Dormady threw for 272 yards with two TDs and two INTs against Buffalo. It was his THIRD straight start and he had led CMU to 42 and 38 points in the first two (three TDs and just one INT). CMU features a solid running game with Ward (725 yards / 6.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and Lewis (645 yards / 5.3 YPC / 8 TDs) both contributing to the team averaging 176.7 YPG on the ground (53rd). CMU's defense allows 29.0 PPG (78th).

The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies' have won two of three MAC games since but this feels like a team suffering through a 'down season.'

Jim McElwain is in his first season at CMU. He did a very good job at Colo St, which led to him getting the fForida job. He did go 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons at Florida but he was brought in to 'spice up' Florid and he failed miserably at that. At 3-4 in his third season, he was fired. However, he has CMU one win away from bowl eligibility, mainly due to the Chippewas going 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 41.8-to-22.2 PPG. Recent history is on CMU's side, as last year's 24-16 loss to NIU ended a four-game winning streak by CMU over NIU (4-0 ATS, as well). NIU is 1-4 on the road this season, allowing 33.2 PPG. My bet says the Huskies' road woes continue.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Year is on Michigan at 7:30 ET.

No. 8 Notre Dame looks to stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot when it visits No. 19 Michigan on Saturday. The Fighting Irish lost 23-17 to then-No. 3 Georgia back on Sep 21 but have since won THREE in a row, including a 30-27 victory over USC on Oct 12. To stay in the mix for a second consecutive playoff appearance, Notre Dame MUST win at "The Big House" on Saturday night. "Playing at Michigan is always a great challenge and one that our guys are excited about," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. "We have to go on the road again and handle all the distractions there and we look forward to a classic matchup."

The Wolverines fell behind 21-0 at Penn St last Saturday night but fought back, although "Big Blue" would ultimately lose, 28-21. Ronnie Bell dropped a pass in the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:01 remaining, which would have potentially sent the game to overtime. In the end, it was another "close but no cigar" for Michigan, as the Wolverines fell to 1-10 against top-10 teams under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan is not thinking CFP but it is thinking, "we had better win one of these games, soon!"

RB Tony Jones Jr. racked up a career-high 176 rushing yards in the win against USC to top the 100-yard mark for the third consecutive game. ND's running game rushed for a season-high 311 yards but on the season is averaging a good but not great, 192.0 YPG (41st). QB Ian Book was 17-of-32 for 165 yards and a touchdown to go along with a TD on the ground but as I'll note later, I don't think much of him. Notre Dame's defense is very good, allowing 16.8 PPG (15th) on 348.0 YPG(41st).

Michigan has typically played excellent defense under Harbaugh and this year's unit is allowing 19.0 PPG (21st) on 285.0 YPG (14th). The lack of a consistent offense has been a problem, as Michigan is averaging just 29.0 PPG (68th) on 392.1 YPG (81st). QB Shea Patterson is completing only 57.4% with nine TDs and four INTs but did have his best game of the season at Penn St, going 24-of-41 for 276 yards plus ran for a TD. Freshman RB Zach Charbonnet ran for 81 yards and two TDs against the Nittany Lions and has 457 yards on the season (4.9 YPC & 7 TDs).

These two longtime powerhouses didn't play from 2015-17 but the series was renewed last season when Notre Dame held off a late Michigan surge for a season-opening 24-17 win. My bet says ND is overrated and let me note that QB Book may have a 14-2 ratio through seven games but 10 of his TD passes came against lightweights New Mexico and Bowling Green. Against Georgia, Virginia and USC, he has three TDs, two INTs and has averaged only 201.7 YPG passing. Yes, Michigan has that pathetic record agianst top-10 opponents but I question whether ND is actually a top-10 team. Let me add that here at home, Michigan beat then-No. 14 Iowa 10-3 on Oct 5 and last year, beat then-No. 14 Penn St 42-7 and then-No. 15 Wisconsin 38-13 in "The Big House." Michigan has won 12 straight at home, including going 4-0 at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 31.5-to-11.2. Notre Dame hasn't played in Ann arbor since 2013 but the Fighting Irish have lost SEVEN of their last eight visits to Michigan Stadium. "Big Blue" wins this one in a big way and at least "keeps hope alive" until Ohio St comes to town on Nov 30.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Arizona St at 7:30 ET.

Arizona State is 5-2 and UCLA 2-5 but both teams are 2-2 in Pac-12 play. No. 24 ASU travels to the Rose Bowl on Saturday, looking to bounce back from its worst offensive output in 11 years. Utah ended Arizona State's streak of 125 games with more than 10 points in last Saturday’s 21-3 victory.UCLA opened 0-3 but has gone 2-2 in conference play, after ending an 11-year drought against Stanford by cruising to a 34-16 win against the Cardinal a week ago Thursday.

Utah did not allow Arizona State’s offense to cross midfield in the first half and allowed only 136 yards of total offense for the game. “I told our football team that we’re going to find out a lot about ourselves this next week,” head coach Herm Edwards told reporters. “Utah hit us in the mouth, and they beat us up. Credit to them. The second half of the season will tell us a lot about where we’re at.” Freshman QB Freshman Jayden Daniels threw for 363 yards and recorded four touchdowns in a 38-34 win over Washington State but at Salt Lake City, he was 4-of-18 for 25 yards and an interception. RB Eno Benjamin ran for 104 yards on 15 carries against the Utes, accounting for almost all of ASU's offense. Benjamin ran for 1,632 yards in 2018 (with 16 TDs) but has a more modest 633 yards in 2019. ASU's defense is allowing 18.1 PPG (18th) on 352.7 YPG (43rd).

The Bruins snapped a two-game losing skid with their win over Stanford, as QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson returned after missing one game due to injury and passed for two TDs and ran for another. RB Joshua Kelley ran for 176 yards. The Bruins averaged only 78 YPG rushing in their 0-3 start but they are averaging 221.5 YPG on the ground in their last four contests. Defensively, UCLA ranks 115th in points allowed (34.6 PPG), as well as in total defense, allowing 459.7 YPG.

While it looks as if Oregon has taken control of the Pac-12 North, the South is far from settled. Utah and USC (Trojans play Friday night at Colorado) are tied for the division lead at 3-1 with Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA all a game back at 2-2. The Bruins still face Utah and USC, while the Sun Devils have USC and Arizona remaining on their schedule. I believe ASU is the much better team and ASU already owns road wins over teams ranked at the time of those games (won at then-No. 18 Mich St and at then-No. 15 Cal). UCLA's two wins have come 67-63 at Wash St (Bruins trailed 49-17 in the late 3Q) and over Stanford, which was down to its third-string QB. Chip Kelly is just 5-13 SU since coming to UCLA and unlike Herm Edwards of ASU (12-8 since coming to Tempe, with FOUR wins over ranked opponents), hasn't beaten a ranked team yet. Don't expect that to change here.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Play is on Troy at 7:00 ET.

My 9* NCAAF Underdog Shocker of the Month is on Temple at 7:00 ET.

UCF and Temple are each 5-2, including 2-1 the American Athletic Conference East Division standings. Both UCF and Temple trail Cincinnati by one game in the division, as they get to square off for a key AAC battle. The Knights have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, most recently a 41-28 victory over East Carolina, while tehe Owls are looking to bounce back after absorbing a 45-21 defeat at SMU.

Dillon Gabriel threw two TDs and ran for another score in UCF's win over ECU. The Knights' QB has exactly 2,000 passing yards on the season and an excellent 17-5 ratio. WR Davis has 47 catches for 833 yards with 10 TDs. The running game features four players with 300-plus yards and it averages 212.3 YPG (26th). UCF ranks 5th in scoring (44.3 PPG) on 553.9 YPG 92nd). Defensively, UCF's numbers are solid, allowing 21.7 PPG (39th) on 349.7 YPG (42nd).

Temple was dominated start to finish by SMU and was outgained 457-204 in last Saturday's lopsided loss. The Owls allowed six TD passes and 457 passing yards, leading head coach Rod Carey to say: "There's a lot to fix in all areas. The good news is it's correctable. The bad news is it cost us today." QB Anthony Russo threw for 409 yards in the season opener versus Bucknell but since has not surpassed 300 yards in any game, including efforts of 127, 224 and 171 yards over the last three outings. The good news is that his TD-to-INT ratio is 14-6, after it was 14-14 last season. Even after last week's 'ugly' loss at SMU, Temple's D checks in allowing 22.7 PPG (43rd) on 373.0 YPG (55th).

Most are well aware that UCF went a combined 25-1 in 2017 and 2018 but the 2019 season has been highlighted (low-lighted?) by a trio of streak-enders. UCF lost 35-34 at Pitt on Sep 21, ending the school's 27-game regular season win streak and then on Oct 4th at Cincy, UCF's streak of 19 straight AAC wins came to and, as did its streak of scoring 30 points or more in 32 straight game, as the Bearcats won 27-24. Temple has proven it can bounce back off a loss and the Owls are 4-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 32.5-to-14.8 PPG). Temple also checks in 8-1 ATS (89% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. As noted above, this 2019 UCF edition does NOT compare to the 2017 or 2018 ones. Take the points and look for a possible SU win by Temple!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Pittsburgh at 12:00 ET.

Many thought that Miami's 17-9 win over then-No. 20 Virginia on Oct 11 was a "turning" point in the 'Canes season but just eight days later, Miami lost 28-21 (in OT) at home to Ga Tech as an 18-point favorite. That's the same Ga Tech team that lost at home (as a four-TD favorite) to The Citadel on Sep 14, an FCS team. The Hurricanes visit Pittsburgh on Saturday to face a surging Panthers team which has rebounded from a season-opening 30-14 home loss to Virginia. Pitt has won FIVE of six since that defeat, falling only 17-10 at Penn St (as a 17-point dog), which is currently the AP's No. 6 team. Pitt has won FOUR in a row since the Penn St loss, going 3-1 ATS.The home team has won THREE straight in this series, after the visitor had won FIVE in a row.

Manny Diaz may be in his first season as Miami's head coach but he already finds himself on the proverbial "hot seat," after last weekend's 28-21 overtime loss to a Georgia Tech. "I’ll take the negativity. I’m responsible for it, and I’ll accept it,” Diaz said Monday in a press conference. "And it sucks that we’re having to go through this. No one’s more disappointed in our record than I am. But I am also as confident as ever that this team will continue to stick together and this team will continue to fight for one another. And the results are going to come." QB Perry completed 16-of-28 passes for 188 yards and two TDs to go along with a rushing score last Saturday but both he and freshman Jarren Williams, who beat out Perry for the starting job in fall camp, are nursing shoulder injuries and it's uncertain who will start Saturday. The passing game is NOT Miami's biggest concern, as the two QBs have combined to average 279.6 YPG through the air (29th). However, the running games adds little help, averaging 131.0 YPG (102nd) on 4.1 YPC. The defensive numbers look good (20.4 PPG ranks 29th and 298.3 YPG ranks 19th) but the bottom line is that Minmi is 3-4 overall, including 1-3 in the ACC.

Meanwhile, Pitt is 2-1 in the ACC Coastal, trailing only 3-1 Virginia. The head-to-head loss to the Cavs could cost Pitt in the end but the Panthers have set their sights on a second straight Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division title. Pitt upset UCF 35-34 (as a 9-point home dog) back on Sep 21 plus its last two games has won ACC contests 33-30 over Duke and 27-0 over Syracuse, BOTH on the road! Pittsburgh raised its FBS-best sack total to 36 with nine against Syracuse, while QB Kenny Pickett passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns in last Friday's 27-20 win. Like Miami, Pitt has moved the ball through the air (270.3 YPG ranks 36th) but Pitt's running game is even worse than Miami's, averaging 120.6 YPG (109th) on just 3.4 YPC. Pitt's D pretty much matches Miami's, allowing 22.1 PPG (41st) on 302.9 YPG (21st).

A victory over the Hurricanes would give Pitt five consecutive wins for the first time since 2009, when Dave Wannstedt's Panthers reeled off six straight. As for Miami, it is proving just as unreliable for Manny Diaz as it was for Mark Richt (FYI...Diaz served on Richt's staff). I noted above that Pitt won the ACC Coastal title last season but will add that the Panthers will NOT forget the 'Canes trouncing them 24-3 in Miami on Nov 24. That was Pitt's final game of the regular season and it came AFTER Pitt had already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh (in 2017's regular-season finale), it was ranked No. 2 in the country but lost 24-14 in Pickett's first start. Pittsburgh is a team in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, while with Miami, it's just the opposite. Pitt has lost to Penn St just 17-10 (Nittany Lions are averaging 40.0 PPG) and beat UCF, ending that team's 27-game regular season winning streak. It's Homecoming for Pitt and I expect the Panthers to roll. Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Memphis at 7:00 ET.

A pair of 5-1 teams square off Saturday night in Memphis, as the Tulane Green Wave visit the Memphis Tigers. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave are well on their way to a second straight winning season, losing only on the road at now-No. 11 Auburn 24-6 back on Sep 7.

When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowls but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011. Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Memphis opened the 2019 season 5-0 and entered last week's game at Temple ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. However, the Tigers lost 30-28, as a 3 1/2-point favorite.

Both schools play in the AAC-West, where Tulane is tied with SMU at 2-0 and Memphis is tied with Navy at 1-1. Tulane is led by its No.4-ranked rushing game, which averages 288.0 YPG. The Green Wave have great depth at RB but Dauphine leads the way with 364 yards on a WHOPPING 11.0 YPC! Overall, the offense is averaging 39.2 PPG (16th) on 496.3 YPG (13th). The defense has played well, allowing 19.2 PPG (26th) on 326.3 YPG (32nd).

Temple has an edge at the QB position with Brady White (69.9% with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs) plus RB Gainwell has run for 726 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. The offense almost matches Tulane in averaging 37.8 PPG (21st) on 466.22 YPG (27th).The defense is good, allowing 21.0 PPG (38th) on 347.2 YPG (44th).

Tulane comes in on a four-game winning streak (SU & ATS) but the Green Wave face THREE tough road games over their next four league contests, Saturday at Memphis, at Navy on Oct 26 and at Temple on Nov 16. Memphis has been tough to beat at home since the beginning of 2014, going 31-5 SU. Expect the Tigers to bounce back off their first loss of 2019 with a "comfortable" home win(meaning a cover!) in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big-12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 4:00 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Rhule has Baylor off to a 6-0 start and the Bears are currently in the AP poll. Baylor is off to a 3-0 start in the Big 12 but have been VERY lucky. The Bears blew a 20-0 lead in their Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining for the win.The Bears made it EIGHT straight wins dating to 2018 last Saturday but were again fortunate after benefiting greatly from a false start call in their 33-30 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Bears drove 97 yards to get the tying FG on the final play of regulation (Mayers came through again) and then won it with a TD in the 2nd OT.

Mike Gundy is in his 15th season at Oklahoma St and this is clearly NOT one of his better teams. The Cowboys are 4-2 (1-2 in Big 12 play). OSU opened 3-0 but has lost TWO of its last three games. The Cowboys lost a competitive 36-30 decision at Texas (as a 7-point dog) on Sep 21 for their first loss of the season, then beat Kan St 26-13 at home, before losing 45-35 at Texas Tech on Oct 5th as a 9-point road favorite. Baylor had its hands full with Texas Tech last Saturday at home, as junior QB Charlie Brewer threw his first three interceptions of the season. However, he ran for three TDs, including one in overtime. He's completing 65.4% with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, as Baylor ranks 34th in the nation with 276.3 YPG passing. The running game is solid (199.2 YPG on 5.6 YPC), helping Baylor average 37.8 PPG (20th). The Baylor D is solid, allowing 17.8 PPG (17th).

Spencer Sanders (63.3 percent, 1,333 yards, 10 TDs, eight INTs) needs only 296 yards to break the freshmen school record for passing yards in a season .However, he hardly seems in the same class as OSU's last two QBs, Cornelius and Rudolph, who threw for a combined 97 TDs with just 26 INTs the previous three seasons. However, sophomore RB Chuba Hubbard has more rushing yards than any player in the nation, checking in with 1,094 on 6.8 YPC with 13 TDs. OSU ranks 7th in the nation with 279.0 YPG on the ground (5.6 YPC), helping them average 39.8 PPG (11th). The defense is a worry though, allowing 27.5 PPG (71st).

Noting all of the above, Baylor's first three wins of 2019 came over FCS SF Austin (1-5), UTSA (2-4) and Rice (0-6) plus the Bears have been extremely fortunate to win TWO of their three Big-12 contests (see above). Oklahoma St has had a week to stew after it was ambushed at Lubbock on Oct 5 and returns to Stillwater for its Homecoming Game. What's more, the Cowboys will surely remember Baylor beating them 35-31 last season in Waco on a 6-yard TD pass to with SEVEN seconds remaining in the game. REVENGE works and Baylor's eight-game winning streak (6-0 start in 2019), ends!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Washington at 3:30 ET.

Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning FIVE in a row (including a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play) and have outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG. That's right, Oregon has allowed just 25 points in its five-game winning streak, holding five consecutive opponents to single-digit point totals for the first time since 1958. However, the Ducks now must visit their border rival the Washington Huskies. Washington is off a 51-27 blowout of Arizona, but the 5-2 Huskies are just 2-2 in Pac-12 play. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but come into this contest having just climbed back into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday.

Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick. He completing 69.1% with 17 TDs and just one INT and has thrown a TD pass in 34 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (176.8 YPG ranks 56th). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG on 461.0 YPG, ranking 30th in both categories. As noted above, the defense is spectacular, allowing 8.7 PPG (3rd) on 267.7 YPG (8th).

Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's not in Herbert's class but he's completing 66.0% with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of which whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (522 RY / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) which averages 179.1 YPG (53rd). Washington is averaging 36.4 PPG (29th) and most teams would be happy allowing 19.6 PPG (28th) on 363.6 YPG (50th) but in this case, the Huskies' D is being compared to the Ducks'.

Both schools play in the Pac-12 North, so Oregon can all but clinch the title here with a win. The Oregon D is 'nasty' (has allowed just one TD over its opponents' last 63 drives while also forcing 21 three-and-outs during that span) but winning at Husky Stadium will NOT be easy. What's more, Washington is a home dog for the first time since 2015. From 2016 through 2019, Washington has played 25 home games, going 23-2 SU. The Huskies lost to USC at home in 2016 and had won 15 straight home games before losing 20-19 to Cal on Sep 7. The Cal game was delayed more than 2 1/2 hours by severe weather, with the Bears winning on a FG with EIGHT seconds left. I'm saying the home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on La Tech at 3:30 ET.

Southern Miss heads to Ruston, La on Saturday to take on La Tech in a C-USA action. The two schools are both 2-0 in league play with the Golden Eagles sitting at 4-2 on the season and the Bulldogs checking in at 5-1. Southern Miss saw a three-year bowl streak end in 2018 (went just 6-5) but is hoping to get back to 'bowling' in 2019. Fact is, the team's two losses this season have come on the road against two SEC schools, Miss St and Alabama. The Golden Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back home wins,31-13 over UTEP and 45-27 over North Texas. As for La Tech, the Bulldogs opened the 2019 season with a 45-14 loss at Texas but have since won FIVE in a row.

Southern Miss is led by QB Jack Abraham who has completed almost 71.6% of his passes for 1,936 yards, with 12 TD’s and four INTs. The Golden Eagles rank 6th in passing (331.2 YPG) but the team's leading rusher has just 279 yards and is averaging a woeful 113.5 YPG on the ground (115th). That said, Southern Miss is averaging 30.5 PPG (57th). The defense is allowing 29.8 PPG (91st) on 388.2 YPG (66th).

La Tech QB J’Mar Smith threw three TD passes and RB Justin Henderson ran for three first-quarter TDs to power Louisiana Tech to a 69-21 victory over Massachusetts last Saturday. Smith is completing 63.8% for 1,557 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs on the season. Henderson has 478 yards rushing, while averaging a healthy 8.2 YPC (has eight TDs). Tech's offense is averaging 34.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (25th). On the defensive side of the ball, despite allowing 45 points at Texas, La Tech checks into this game allowing a modest 23.0 PPG (45th).

The winner of this one takes a big step towards representing the West in C-USA's title game and I'm "all over" La Tech. The Bulldogs come in on a five-game winning streak and will surely remember therir bitter losses to the Golden Eagles the last two seasons. Southern Miss eked out a 21-20 win at home in 2018 and in 2017, won here in Ruston 34-27 in two OTs. Expect the Bulldogs to "get it right' this time around.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Florida at 12:00 ET.

My 10* Friday Night Lights G.O.M. is on FAU at 6:30 ET.

Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin has turned things around quickly though, winning FOUR in a while averaging 39.0 PPG.

4-2 FAU welcomes 3-3 Marshall to Boca Raton for a Friday game in C-USA play. FAU (2-0) and Marshall (1-1) were the East's two-favorites in the preseason but Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd are struggling in 2019, going 1-5 ATS. The team's lone ATS win came way back on Sep 6, when Marshall (+14) lost 14-7 at Boise St. QB Green is struggling, with just two TD passes in his last three games, passing for only 131 and 175 yards in two of those three contests. Marshall has lost both road games this season, at Boise St (see above) and 24-13 at MTSU on Oct 5. The game at MTSU is noteworthy, as Marshall scored just 13 points on a defense allowing 32.7 PPG (107th) on 494.7 YPG (126th).

FAU just beat MTSU 28-13 at home last Saturday, despite playing its worst offensive game since being outclassed by Ohio St and UCF to open the 2019 season. However, while Marshall's QB is struggling, FAU's Robinson has thrown for 1,557 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs. If freshman RB Davidson (149 rushing yards v. MTSU) continues to develop, FAU may just be the team to beat in the East (Western Ky has opened 3-0 and hosts FAU on Nov 2). Getting back to the current situation, the Owls are 13-4 SU at home under Kiffin (13 wins have come by an average of 24.6 PPG) and this modest impost should be no problem against a Marshall team which has scored just 20 points in its only two road games of 2019. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on Iowa at 7:30 ET.

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) will take its 12-game winning streak (second to only Clemson's 20 straight wins) and its No. 10 ranking in the current AP poll into Iowa City to take on No. 17 Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) Saturday night. The Nittany Lions' CFP hopes will likely depend on how they perform during a critcal three- week stretch which begins this Saturday. Penn St will follow this contest with a home date with No. 16 Michigan and then a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St. Iowa is likely not seriously thinking o about the CFP but the Hawkeyes have surely NOT tabled hopes of winning the Big Ten West. However, with Wisconsin and Minnesota off to 2-0 stars, Iowa almost HAS to win this one (will play at Wisconsin and then host Minnesota in Nov).

Penn State sophomore QB Sean Clifford ranks second among Big Ten passers with 1,443 yards and is third with 12 TD passes (just two INTs in 135 pass attempts). A running-back-by-committee approach (four backs have run for at least 198 yards) is averaging 194.6 YPG (43rd) on 5.4 YPC. Penn St is averaging 47.0 YPPG (5th) on 500.2 YPG (11th). Iowa's offense could not score a TD last week at Michigan, as QB Nate Stanley (who entered the game with eight TD passes and zero INTs), threw three INTs. Stanley, who needs just one TD pass to move into a tie for second in school history, is unlikely to forget that he completed only 18-of-49 passes while throwing two interceptions and getting sacked three times in a 30-24 oss at Penn State last year. However, much like Penn St, Iowa's running game (174.2 YPG on 5.2 YPC) has three players with more than 200 rushing yards. Stanley also has a quartet of receivers all with at least 190 receiving yards.

The Nittany Lions have won FIVE straight meetings with the Hawkeyes but note that last season at Penn St, Stanley (who had an awful game / see above) threw a pick at Penn State's goal line with 3:18 left, as the Nittany Lions survived 30-24. The year before (at Iowa), Penn State scored a TD on the game's final play, winning 21-19 on a walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley. Yes, Penn St has won FIVE in a row but prior to that, the Hawkeyes had won EIGHT of nine in the series, including a last-second 24-23 win in 2008 that knocked Penn State out of the national title chase.

Deja vu? Iowa's QB in that 2008 game, Ricky Stanzi, is the team's honorary captain this week. Iowa (especially its defense) will be Penn St's toughest opponent to-date and the Nittany Lions hardly impressed against the team's toughest opponent up to this point. Back on Sep 14, Penn St (-17) barely eked out a 17-10 win against Pittsburgh (was held to just 389 yards). Yes, Penn State's defense is allowing 7.4 PPG (2nd) on 240.4 YPG (4th) but Iowa's D is "right there" with them, allowing just 8.8 PPG (3rd) on 255.0 YPG (5th). Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS a home dog since late 2000 and I'm expecting an OUTRIGHT win in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on Nevada t 4:00 ET.

Nevada began 2019 with a home upset by beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. I guess the best news here is that the Nevada had a bye the first weekend of October. Nevada will welcome San Jose St to Reno on Saturday. The Spartans come in off a 32-21 win over New Mexico, giving them a 3-2 record. That may not seem like a big deal but when one considers the Spartans were 2-11 in 2017 and 1-11 in 2018, it is.

QB Josh Love threw for 405 yards in the win over New Mexico and enters this contest completing 61.9% for 1,418 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. However, the Spartans don't have much of a running game, averaging only 105.8 YPG (119th) on a woeful 3.4 YPC. San Jose is scoring 27.6 PPG, while allowing 27.6. Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii. However, the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.8 PPG (115th) on 331.2 YPG (114th).

It's true that San Jose St has made some significant strides in 2019 but the Spartans come into this contest just 1-14 SU on the road since the beginning of 2017. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-28 SU since 2005 plus has beaten San Jose St in NINE of the last 10 meetings (note: San Jose hasn’t won SU in Reno since 2000!). At this price, the home team is the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC ATTACK 2 is on Ohio U at 3:30 ET.

Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but then lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 21 and entered that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns. The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and opened their MAC schedule at Buffalo last Saturday. The Bobcats and Buffs were tied at 14 and went to OT. Buffalo scored first but missed the PAT. Ohio gave the ball to RB Allison on all five of its plays in overtime and won it 21-20 on his five-yard TD run and a successful PAT, Ohio (2-3 / 1-0 MAC) returns home to host Northern Illinois.

The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seassons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. So far, NOT so good . Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies have lost FOUR in a row, since. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies rank 42nd in passing (266.2 YPG) but QB Ross Bowers is completing just 56.9% with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The running game stinks, averaging 97.4 YPG (122nd). The defense allows a relatively modest 363.4 YPG (49th) but gives up 28.0 PPG (78th).

Ohio OB Nathan Rourke was expecting a big season after passing for 2,431 yards (with 23 TD passes) and rushing for 860 yards (with 15 TDs) in 2018. However, he's got just 250 rushing yards (3 TDs) and 1,012 passing yards (6 TDs) so far in 2019. Ohio's D is allowing 27.6 PPG (74th) on 446.8 YPG (108th). The Bobcats have disappointed so far but they are 1-0 in MAC play and just maybe, last Saturday's OT win is what the team needed to jump-start its MAC season. Northern Illinois in 2019 looks NOTHING like past editions (12 bowls the last 15 seasons) and its lone with has come over Illinois St, an FCS member. NIU is 0-3 on the road, getting outscored on average, 34.3-to-14.3 PPG. Remember, before losing at home to ULL on Sep 21, Ohio had won 10 straight at home, averaging 47.0 PPG. Let's not count out Ohio U just yet in its quest for its first MAC title since 1968,. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

The Tigers travel to Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa) this Saturday to take on fellow AAC rival Temple. The Owls entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six year as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. In Temple's second game of 2019, the Owls upset then-No. 21 Maryland 20-17 (as five-point home dog), one week after the Terps had ripped Syracuse for 63 points. Temple suffered a let down of its own the following Saturday, losing 38-22 at Buffalo, as a two-TD road favorite. However, the Owls have rebounded to beat Georgia Tech (24-2) and East Carolina (27-17) in their last two games, allowing an average of just 316 yards per game in the two victories

Memphis QB Brady White threw three TD passes and RB Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 209 rushing yards and two scores in the Tigers' 52-33 win last Saturday. The Memphis offense (39.8 PPG ranks 16th) owns excellent balance, passing for 246.6 YPG (65th) and rushing for 214.4 YPG (32nd). White is completing 71.7% (11-3 ratio) and Gainwell has 620 rushing yards (8.2 YPC and 6 TDs). The defense is allowing 19.2 PPG (27th) on 325.4 YPG (35th). Temple is averaging 29.8 PPG (68th) on 445.2 YPG (35th) but neither QB Russo (58.9% with an 11-6 ratio) nor RB Davis (563 RY / 6.0 YPC / 4 TdD) are quite as good as their Memphis counterparts (While and Gainwell). However, the Temple D is every bit as good, and slightly better than Memphis', allowing 17.2 PPG (19th) on 292.8 YPG (20th).

This is a tough spot for Memphis, as QB White will be facing the best D he's seen all year (he under-performed vs Ole Miss out of the SEC), as Temple ranks 3rd in pass efficiency. Temple's Russo has a strong arm and is off his first error-free game of season in the 27-17 win at East Carolina (23-34 for 208 yards with one TD and zero INTs) plus RB Davis ran for 157 yards (6.5 YPC). The Memphis D is in for a test. Temple is 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 33.3-to-10.3 PPG) and checks in 7-1 ATS (88%) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. This Memphis team may be 5-0 and ranked 23rd but it is NOT in the class of that 2017 UCF team. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Colorado St at 8:00 ET.

The 1-5 Colorado State Rams (0-2 in MWC play) travel to Albuquerque to face the 2-3 New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium on Friday night. Former Georgia QB Mike Bobo took over at CSU in 2015, getting his first head coaching job. He led the Rams to three straight 7-6 seasons but each one ended with a bowl loss. The 2018 season was a 'disaster,' as CSU went just 3-9, its worst record since 2011. Clearly, the team's 1-5 start has CSU backers worried. As for New Mexico, Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos have opened the 2019 season 2-3 (0-1 in MWC play)

CSU is almost assured of a second straight losing season but the team's 1-5 record is somewhat deceiving. The Rams opened 2019 against in-state rival Colorado of the Pac-12, and following a win over Western Illinois, the Rams have faced the SEC’s Arkansas, 4-1 Toledo, and solid MWC schools Utah State (3-2) and San Diego State (4-1). Starting QB Collin Hill (67.5% & an 8-2 ratio) was lost for the season to a knee injury in the game at Arkansas but back-up Patrick O'Brien rallied the team from a 14-point, first half deficit to tie it at 34-all (Arkansas would win the 4Q, 21-0). However, O'Brien has thrown for 839 yards in his three starts (279.7 YPG). New Mexico got blasted 66-14 at Notre Dame (Welcome Back, Dave) and its lone two wins in 2019 have come at home against Sam Houston State (FSC) and 0-6 New Mexico St (one of three winless teams in 2019). New Mexico owns a solid running game (212.4 YPG ranks 33rd) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 39.6 PPG (126th) on 513.8 YPG (127th).

CSU badly needs a win and New Mexico St sets up as the perfect foil. The Rams have beaten the Lobos NINE straight times (average margin of victory being a right at two TDs), including all SEVEN since Davie took over in 2012 (6-1 ATS). Want more? The Lobos are 2-15 SU in MWC game since the start of 2017. There is a reason this 1-5 team is a road favorite!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SBC Game of the Month is on ULL at 8:00 ET.

The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008. The Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 4-0 Mountaineers travel to Louisiana-Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns in Sun Belt Conference action on Wednesday. App St is 4-0 and owns the third-longest active winning streak in CFB at 10 in a row, while ULL checks in at 4-1 (both schools are 1-0 in SBC play).

This is a rematch of last year's SBC championship game, won by Appalachian State at home, 30-19 (the Mountaineers also won at home in the regular season, 27-17). App St owns a very balanced offense, averaging 204.8 YPG passing and 224.5 YPG rushing (47.0 PPG, 5th-best in the nation). QB Zac Thomas has completed 71.9% for 802 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 14-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to those 10 straight wins! The defense allows 420.0 YPG (94th) and 29.0 PPG (86th) but when a team is scoring 47.0 PPG, that can be overlooked.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44,4 4 PPG (9th-best), led by the nation's top rushing offense. ULL averages 314.0 YPG on a WHOPPING 7.3 YPC. It has two VERY dangerous backs, Ragas (548 yards / 9.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mitchell (402 yards / 6.0 YPC / 9 TDs). The defense allows a more modest 24.1 PPG (41st) and features a very athletic secondary. ULL opened the season by losing 38-28 to Miss St in the Superdome (covered as a 19-point dog) but has since gone 4-0 SU & ATS.

Yes, ULL has lost all six meetings with App St since 2014 (including two last season) but the matchups favor them in this one. ULL’s athletic secondary ranks 13th nationally in pass defense efficiency and Appalachian State QB Zac Thomas could (should) have problems. App State’s defense hasn’t played well, allowing 109 points its last three games (36.3 PPG), to Charlotte, UNC and Coastal Carolina and overall, ranks 117th in red zone D. The team's rush D will be severely tested by ULL's top-ranked rushing attack. The last time App St lost a league game was Oct 25, 2018 at Georgia Southern (34-14), when the Eagles ran for 277 yards (5.5 YPC). The Ragin' Cajuns are the ONLY school of 130 playing in the FBS to be unbeaten ATS (5-0). Expect ULL to control the ball and clock and finally break through vs Appalachian State, keeping the team's perfect ATS mark in tack.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Under the Radar Rout is on New Mexico St at 8:00 ET.

Liberty announced it would start a transition to the FBS in July of 2017. The Flames became a provisional FBS member in 2018 (playing as an Independent) and becomes a full FBS member, including bowl eligibility, in 2019. The Flames went 6-6 in 2018 and after opening 2019 with back-to-back losses, has won THREE in a row. New Mexico St's first season was 1893 and has long been playing as a Division 1 school (now FBS). Current head coach Doug Martin is in his seventh season at Las Cruses and in 2017, led the Aggies to a 7-6 season which included bowl win over UIah St. That marked just NMSU's second winning season since 2000 (2002 team went 7-5). However, the Aggies were just 3-9 last season and have opened this season 0-5.

Liberty made a controversial hire before this season naming Hugh Freeze as its head coach. Freeze was ousted at Ole Miss in 2016 and in February 2019, the NCAA punished the Ole Miss football team for the recruiting and academic violations committed under Freeze and a previous head coach. The punishments included a two-year postseason ban, three years of probation, and a four-year ban on some scholarships. As well, 33 games were vacated, or stripped from the record. Freeze's record at Ole Miss, which was 39–25 during his five seasons, now stands officially at 12–25. Libery comes in on a three-game winning streak but winning on the road is a challenge, even vs a poor team like New Mexico St. The Flames went 1-5 SU on the road in 2018, allowing 48.3 PPG. In Liberty's lone road game here in 2019, the Flames lost 35-14 at UL-Lafayette.

New Mexico St owns the nation's worst defense, allowing 47.2 PPG (ranking 130th among 130 FBS schools) on 520.4 YPG (128th). However, let me note that just last Saturday, UMass won 37-29 at home against sad-sack Akron, having entered that contest allowing 51.8 PPG on 556.2 YPG (both left them 130th in the nation). The Aggies won't go 0-12 this season and it's noteworthy to mention that just like in 2018, these two schools are playing a home-and-home series in 2019. New Mexico St beat Liberty 49-41 here in Las Cruses last season and then lost a competitive game in Lynchburg 28-21 in the season-finale for both schools. The first meeting in 2018 was on the first Saturday of October (just like this season) and the teams will again meet in Lynchburg Nov 30, capping their respective seasons. In front of a friendly home crowd, expect the Aggies to claim their first (only?) win of 2019 against the Flames. Don't see Liberty winning FOUR is row, especially on the road with its dreadful road record since joining FBS (see above for a reminder).

Good luck..Larry

My NCAAF 9* Underdog of the Month is on Michigan St at 7:30 ET.

My 9* "Best Bet" MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 3:30 ET.

Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio on Saturday, where the Rockets will host the Broncos in MAC play. Western Michigan improved to 3-2 on the season (1-0 in the MAC) with a 31-15 victory over Central Michigan last Saturday at home. This marks the Broncos' conference road opener, while for 3-1 Toledo, it's the team's conference opener. Both schools finished with identical 7-6 records in 2018 (both were also 5-3 in MAC play) but Toledo has dominated the series recently, winning SEVEN of the last nine meetings.

PJ Fleck made a 'pit stop' in Kalamazoo from 2013-16 and his final team 'rowed the boat' to a perfect 13-0 record, before falling 24-16 to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Fleck used that season to land the job at Minnesota and Tim Lester has gone 13-12 in his first two years at the school (is currently 16-14). QB Jon Wassink (63.1% / 1,466 yards / 10-4 ratio) leads an offense averaging 37.2 PPG (27th) but WMU has NOT been competitive in its two road games in 2019, losing 51-17 at Mich St and 52-33 at Syracuse.

OK, Toledo is not exactly Mich St (may not even be Syracuse) but the Rockets own a very balanced offense (207.8 YPG passing and 262.2 YPG rushing) that has them 28th in total offense (470.0 YPG) and 41st in scoring (34.5 PPG) That running game ranks 10th in the nation and while the defense is giving up too many yards, the Rockets are holding opponents to a decent 23.5 PPG (51st). Toledo has opened 2-0 at home and that's hardly news. The Rockets entered the 2019 season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips), while going 43-12 SU at home (now 45-12 with this year's two home victories).

As noted above, Toledo has won SEVEN of the last nine meetings with Western Michigan, with both losses coming when Fleck was rowing the boat for WMU (in 2015 and 2016). Fleck's now a Golden Gopher and these last two seasons, Toledo has won 37-10 and 51-24 (at WMU!). No reason at all for the Rockets to NOT be a bigger favorite here.

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Game of the Week is on Kansas St at 3:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Things are looking up for Baylor in 2019, as the Bears have opened 4-0. Baylor squandered a 20-0 lead Saturday in its Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining to keep the Bears perfect with a 23-21 win. Meanwhile, Kansas State, wasn’t so fortunate, losing 26-13 at Oklahoma State last Saturday in its Big 12 opener after a 3-0 start. “The thing about it is I think you can learn a lot more from a loss than you do with a win,” Wildcats first-year head coach Chris Klieman said Monday on the Big 12 coaches teleconference. “We’re going to learn an awful lot from this.”

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer threw for a season-high 307 yards and passed for three TDs in the win over Iowa St. He's completing 66.4% for 972 yards with 10 TDs and not a single INT. He's supported by a solid running game, averaging 216.0 YPG (31st), as the Bears head to Manhattan averaging 40.8 PPG (15th). The defense has done its job as well, allowing 16.2 PPG (20th) on 297.5 YPG (24th). The Wildcats also possess one of the Big 12’s top defenses, ranking 17th in the nation in allowing 16.0 PPG on 323.5 YPG (35th), despite being gashed for 526 total yards by Okla St. I guess the good news would be, KSU held the Cowboys to a season-low 26 points.

Baylor's 4-0 start is its best since beginning 2016 with six straight wins and will come to Manhattan as one of 18 undefeated FBS teams. However, Baylor has had problems covering the number in this matchup, going 1-4 ATS in the last five at Kansas St and 3-7 the last 10 meetings, overall. Baylor's first three wins of 2019 have come over FCS SF Austin (1-4), UTSA (1-3) and Rice (0-5) plus the Bears were VERY lucky to escape last Saturday vs Iowa St. I don't expect the Bears to be so lucky here in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have covered SIX of their last seven. Baylor falls from the ranks of the unbeaten in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa State at 12:00 ET.

TCU still hasn't decided on a starting QB, as the Horned Frogs used three different QBs while rolling up 625 yards in last week's 51-14 win over Kansas. True freshman starter Max Duggan, fifth-year senior Alex Delton (who started the first two games of the season) and junior Mike Collins all seeing action in the second half. Head coach Gary Patterson wouldn't tip his hand as to who his starter would be against the Cyclones but whoever gets the start, will have the benefit of a rushing attack averaging 275.2 YPG (8th). The 3-1 Horned Frogs visit Ames on Saturday looking to open 2-0 in the Big 12. Iowa St is 2-2 but 0-1 in the Big 12 and unlike TCU, is having all sorts of trouble running the ball, averaging 152.2 YPG (76th) on the season, after gaining only 63 yards (2.3 YPC) on the ground in last Saturday's 23-21 loss at Baylor.

Duggan is just the second true freshman to start at QB during the 19-season head coaching tenure of Gary Patterson and completed 8-of-11 passes for 100 yards and two TDs against the Jayhawks ,while Delton, a Kansas State transfer, was 10-of-15 for 186 yards and also rushed for 21 yards. Both are expected to see significant snaps. Senior RB Darius Anderson is having a breakout year, rushing for 483 yards (8.2 YPC) with five TDs. His best previous season at TCU was in 2017, when he gained 768 yards for the entire year. Patterson's teams typically play good D and this year's squad is holding opponents to 18.8 PPG (30th) on 246.0 YPG (4th).

Iowa St may have issues running the ball (the Cyclones have rotated five different RBs) but QB Brock Purdy ranks fourth nationally in total offense (358.0 YPG) and seventh in the nation in passing yards (332.8 YPG), coming in with back-to-back 300-yard passing games. Iowa St was held to just 17 points by Iowa but is still averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) and the defense is allowing a modest 21.8 PPG (45th).

Iowa St's two losses are to Iowa and Baylor (both are 4-0) and have come by a total of just THREE points. The Cyclones fell behind 20-0 at Baylor last Saturday but rallied back with 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a one-point lead with 3:45 remaining However, ISU lost on a 38-yard field goal with just 21 seconds left. The Iowa loss was not any easier to take, as the Cyclones led 14-6 late in the third quarter, before closing 18-17 on a FG with just under five minutes left.

Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 last year and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. He's 2-2 this year, with those two "close losses." The Cyclones are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games, losing in 2018 to then-No. 5 Oklahoma (ATS win) and to current No. 14 Iowa in 2019 (another ATS win). The Cyclones have owned the month of October vs Big 12 opponents (home or away) since 2017, going a PERFECT 7-0 SU & ATS. Make that 8-0!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Lights Play (AAC Game of the Month) is on UCF at 8:00 ET.

The 3-1 Cincinnati Bearcats will play their AAC opener Friday night when they welcome 4-1 UCF to Nippert Stadium. UCF is ranked 18th in the latest AP poll and is coming off a 56-21 rout of Connecticut to open its AAC slate. The Knights rebounded from their first loss in 26 regular-season games (35-34 at Pittsburgh on Sep 22), by registering 607 yards of total offense. Cincinnati is coming off it best game of 2019, dominating both sides of the ball in a 52-14 rout at Marshall on Sep 28. The Bearcats out-gained the Thundering Herd 525-256, as they kept Marshall off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter.

Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel threw for three TDs against UConn and after five games has completed 61.7% for 1,338 yards with a 14-2 ratio. UCF's running game adds excellent balance to an offense averaging 49.0 PPG (6th) on 568.6 YPG (2nd). Three RBs have more than 250 yards rushing, led by McCrae (323 YR / 6.2 YPC) and Killins (310 YR / 7.4 YPC). When a team's offense is averaging seven TDs per game, a defense allowing 19.4 PPG (33rd) on 324.8 YPG (36th) is more than adequate.

Cincy's sophomore QB Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Week with his four TD passes against Marshall. Ridder has a pair of reliable receivers in WR Alec Pierce (14 receptions, 277 yards, TD) and TE Josiah Deguara (12 catches, 183 yards, 3 TDs),. The running agme is decent (186.5 YPG ranks 52nd) and despite getting shutout 42-0 by Ohio St, Cincy is averaging 27.8 PPG (80th). The Cincy D is pretty good, holding the team's three opponents (not named Ohio St) to just 13.7 PPG

Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. His Bearcats take a NINE-game home winning streak into this contest but is beating a UCF a 'bridge too far?' My bet says Y-E-S! The Knights have scored 30 points or more in 32 straight games and have won 19 straight AAC games, with the average margin of victory checking in at 21.0 PPG (just ONE win has had a margin of less than seven points). These schools have met three times in the Frost/Heupel era (2016-18), with UCF winning 24-3, 51-23 (game was cut short because of thunderstorms) and 38-13. Deja vu!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall.

Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season.

This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Arizona at 10:30 ET.

Anyone reading this will surely have heard that UCLA scored 50 points in the second half at then-No. 19 Washington State while rallying from a 49-17 deficit for earn its first victory of the season, 67-63. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a school-record 564 yards of total offense, including 507 yards passing (5 TDs) and 57 rushing yards (2 TDs). 1-3 UCLA is back on the road again this Saturday night, when it travels to Tucson to take on the 2-1 Arizona Wildcats.Arizona, which lost to UCLA 31-30 last season at the Rose Bowl minus starting QB Khalil Tate, has bounced back from a season-opening 45-38 loss at Hawaii with double-digit wins over both Northern Arizona (65-41) and Texas Tech (28-14).

UCLA came to Pullman last week 0-3 and was well on its way to an 0-4 start (Bruins opened 0-5 in 2018) before its incredible comeback. DTR (as UCLA's QB is known) had thrown for just 556 yards with four TDs and four INTs in the Bruins 0-3 start but picked apart a three-man Washington State pass rush in the second half when he threw for 322 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown pass with 1:07 to play for the game-winning TD. UCLA's win was incredible but the Bruins did allow Washington St to score 63 points on a WHOPPING 720 yards, with QB Gordon accounting for 570 passing yards and nine TD passes. The Bruins' 'survived' by forcing SIX turnovers with linebacker Josh Woods leading the way an interception and two fumble recoveries, including one with 59 seconds left to seal the win.

Arizona opened the season in 'paradise' (otherwise known as Hawaii) but despite gaining 539 yards and forcing SIX Hawaii turners, got upset 45-38 (Wildcats were favored by 10.5 points). However, Arizona 'hung' 65 points against Northern Arizona and then played an excellent all-around game in beating Texas Tech 28-14 as a two-point home dog. QB Tate is healthy and primed for a HUGE senior season. He's passed for 684 yards in three games (6 TDs) and run for 238 yards (7.4 YPC) with two TDs. Tate surpassed the 5,000-yard mark in career passing (5,048) and the 2,000-yard career rushing mark (2,110) in the win over Texas Tech, joining Oregon's Marcus Mariota as the only QBs in conference history to accomplish that feat. Tate had a school-record 84-yard touchdown run against the Red Raiders and also engineered a 99-yard, 13-play drive that chewed up over seven minutes for the game-clinching TD.

This sets up as a classic "let down" spot for the Bruins, plus Arizona has the advantage of not only coming in off a bye week but the Wildcats are playing with revenge from last year's one-point loss (again, Tate missed that contest). let's not forget that UCLA entered the 2019 season just 2-15 SU in road games the previous three seasons and began 20 19 with a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati. So, heading into last Saturday's game at Washington St, the Bruins were 2-17 SU in games away from the Rose Bowl (UCLA's home field), including a 35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St in 2017. Down 49-17 in the third quarter, UCLA rallied to win. Hard to see UCLA not coming into this game 'flat.' Arizona's running game ranks 5th in the nation at 307.7 YPG (6,6 YPC), while UCLA's ranks 124th at 96.0 YPG (2.7 YPC). I want Tate over DTR plus UCLA's defense, which allows 530.2 YPG (125th) and 39.5 PPG (122nd) will NOT get six TOs in this one to save them. UCLA win streak ends at ONE in a  row. Wildcats roll.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET.

The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va  for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog).

East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Arizona St at 10:30 ET.

California got off to its third consecutive 3-0 start in 2019 and entered the AP top-25 on Sep 15 at No. 23. Cal visited Oxford last Saturday and secured a 28-20 road victory over Ole Miss with a last-second stop at the goal line plus received a breakout performance by QB Chase Garbers, who threw for four TDs and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in the air. Cal's win saw them make the biggest 'leap' of any school in the new AP poll (Sep 22), jumping from No. 23 to No. 15. Cal welcomes Arizona State to Berkeley Friday night. The Sun Devils upset then-No. 18 Michigan St 10-7 at East Lansing on Sep 14, moving to 3-0 and No. 24 in the AP poll. However, ASU lost 34-31 at home last Saturday to Colorado and at 3-1, fell out of the rankings.

ASU has a freshman QB in Daniels and he's 'learning fast.' He opened by throwing for 588 yards (3 TDs and 0 INTs) in ASU's first two games but then had all sorts of problems at Mich St, throwing for just 140 yards. Yes, the Sun Devils lost to the Buffs last Saturday, but Daniels passed for 345 yards with two TDs. Cal's D has gotten a lot of pub since late 2018 (and with good reason) but despite allowing 34 points to Colorado, the ASU defense is allowing only 13.8 PPG (17th) on 346.0 YPG (49th). PK Brandon Ruiz has yet to play this season because of an undisclosed injury and is unlikely to return Friday. However, walk-on kicker Cristian Zendejas may not have his range, but he's made NINE of his 10 field-goal attempts.

Cal was hardly impressive in 27-13 and 23-17 wins over UC-Davis and North Texas at home, respectively, but owns two quality road wins. The Bears won 20-19 at then-No. 14 Washington and then at SEC foe Ole Miss  (see above). QB Chase Garbers came into Oxford last Saturday having completed just 20- of 40 passes for 240 yards in his previous two games but threw for 357 yards and four TDs vs the Rebels. Cal needed "all of that," as its much-heralded defense did hold Ole Miss to 20 points (the Bears have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 24 points) but a check of the stat sheet shows a mediocre Ole Miss offense gained 525 yards!

ASU suffered a let down against Colorado off its win at MSU the week before but Herm Edwards knows his team really needs a bounce-back win here. Is Cal really as good as its press clippings? I'm not sold and will note that Cal was 1-5-1 ATS at home last season and is 0-2 ATS at home to start 2019. Meanwhile, ASU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road dog. I'm calling for the outright upset.

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Navy at 8:00 ET.

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on West Va at 4:30 ET.

Both West Va and Kansas began the 2019 season with new head coaches. Neal Brown took over at West Va, after leading Troy to three straight bowl wins from 2016-18 and a 31-8 overall record. As for Kansas, the Jayhawks, mired in a decade-long slump since Mark Mangino was allowed to 'quietly' resign after the 2009 season, hired Les Miles. Miles began his career at Oklahoma St but he made his name at LSU, taking the Tigers to 11 straight bowl games from 2005-2015, winning the BCS championship in 2007 and losing it in 2011. His record was 112-032 in that span but after a 2-2 start in 2016, was fired. Kansas signed him to a five-year contract last November.

West Va opened the season with an uninspiring 20-13 home win over James Madison and then got blown out 38-7 at Missouri. However, behind Austin Kendall's 272 yards and three TD passes, the Mounrtaineers beat NC State 44-27 as a 7-point home dog. Brown has just three starters back from an offense that avergaed 40.3 PPG. QB Kendall is a graduate transfer from Oklahoma and three freshmen receivers helped infuse some much-needed life into the offense last Saturday, as Sam James caught nine passes for 155 yards (1 TD), Winston Wright had four catches and Ali Jennings had three catches, including a fourth-quarter TD. Brown used three first-time starters on the offensive line against North Carolina State. West Va entered the contest averaging an FBS-worst 1.1 YPC but ran for 173 yards (6.2 YPC)!

"The Hat's" career at Kansas got started with a fortunate 24-17 home win over Indiana St (Jayhawks scored the go-ahead TD with just over two minutes left in the game). That unimpressive victory was followed by a shocking 12-7 home loss to Coastal Carolina. So what happened a week ago last Friday? Kansas won 48-24 at BC, as an 18 1/2-point underdog. Senior QB Carter Stanley (107 yards passing , two interceptions vs Coastal Carolina) rebounded from an interception on his first pass attempt against the Eagles by completing 12 straight and finishing 20-of-27 for 238 yards and three TD. Kansas ran for 329 yards on 7.3 YPC. What's going on here? The win ended a 48-game road losing streak against Powe-5 schools for the Jayhawks.

Can the Jayhawks actually move to 3-1 with a win here? Kansas entered 2019 with a 6-82 record in Big 12 play the last 10 years and last won its league-opener back in 2009, Mangino's last season with the team. Kansas has lost NINE straight conference openers since, and SEVEN of eight to West Va since it joined the Big 12. That includes FIVE straight losses to West Va by the scores of 51-13, 49-0, 48-21, 56-34 and 38-22. I was never much of a fan of "the Hat" and I'll side with Brown, whose Troy teams the last three seasons averaged between 30.7 and 33.7 PPG on offense, while allowing just 18.5-to-22.1 PPG on defense. This guy can coach and look for him to prove it at Morgantown before he's through. Kansas opened 2-1 in 2018 as well but finished 3-9. That BC game was a 'mirage!'

Good luck...Larry