Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-10-20 | Florida v. Texas A&M +7 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas A&M at 12:00 ET. The Florida Gators will take a 2-0 record (both SEC wins) and their No. 4 ranking in the AP poll into College Station on Saturday to face No. 21 Texas A&M (1-1 start with both games also being conference contests). Florida QB Kyle Trask replaced an injured Feleipe Franks last season and went from obscurity to folk hero in Gainesville. He ended the season with 2,941 passing yards (25 TDs / 7 INTs), as the Gators finished 11-2 after a 36-28 Orange Bowl win over Virginia (final ranking of No. 6 in the AP poll). Jimbo Fisher completed his second season with Texas A&M in 2019, going 8-5, after going 9-4 in his first season (both seasons ended with bowl wins). 17 wins (including two bowl wins) over two seasons while playing in the SEC West is not bad but NOT what A&M is paying Fisher a 'ton' of money for. He's had two straight top-10 recruiting classes and the A&M fans and boosters want more. Florida passed for 213.5 YPG in 2018, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season, passed for 300.8 yards and ran for just 129.8. Head coach Dan Mullen loved the results (11-2 record) but was hoping for some more balance in 2020. However, Trask has been OUTSTANDING in two wins, completing 71.8% for 684 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. 6-5 TE Pitts has 12 catches, averaging 18.9 YPC with six TDs. The running game has been somewhat pushed to the 'back-burner,' averaging a modest 138.0 YPG with only one rushing TD. The Florida D has looked pretty vulnerable, allowing 29.5 PPG on 471.0 YPG. Texas A&M was ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but played an uninspiring season-opener at home on Sep 26, edging Vandy just 17-12. Up next was Alabama last Saturday and while A&M gained 450 yards and scored 24 points, the Aggies allowed 52 points 554 on yards, with Alabama QB Mac Jones throwing for a career high 435 yards and four TDs. A&M QB Kelly Mond did little against Vandy but played well against 'Bama's defense, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs. RB Spiller ran for 946 yards (5.4 YPC) with 10 TDs last season but while he's averaging 7.5 YPC through two games, he's gained a modest total of 142 yards rushing. A&M remained in the top-25 even after the loss to Alabama (at No. 21) but will have to win here, to stay ranked come Sunday. The Florida D is vulnerable and its pass D has just ONE interception, despite facing 80 pass attempts. Mond has the talent to match Trask. Fisher knows plenty about Florida as during his time at Florida St, he was 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs Florida. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-08-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Night Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET. You may just have heard that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady in the offseason hoping the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback could help them end a 12-year playoff drought. The 43-year-old Brady saw his production dip in his 20th and final season in New England but was able to sign a two-year, fully guaranteed $50 million contract with the Bucs. He was 'off' in Tampa Bay's season-opening loss at New Orleans, as he had two badly-thrown INTs, one of which was returned for a TD in a 34-23 loss. However, he's led the Bucs to THREE straight wins since that defeat, completing 65.5% with nine TDs and just two INTs. The Bucs have averaged 32.3 PPG in their winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 13 points! The Bucs are in Chicago Thursday night for a game with the Bears, who opened the season 3-0, before struggling badly on offense in a 19-11 Week 4 loss at home to the Colts. The game wasn't as close as the final indicates, as the Bears trailed 19-3 before scoring a TD (and added a two-point conversion) with just 1:35 left in the game. Nick Foles replaced the obviously overrated Trubisky in Week 3 vs the Falcons, rallying the Bears from a 26-10 deficit to a 30-26 win. Foles threw three TD passes in the final 6 1/2 minutes of that contest but couldn't get the Bears into the end zone last Sunday until just under two minutes to go. In fairness, the Colts do own the NFL best defense early on in NFL 2020, allowing league-lows in points (14.0 per) and total yards (236.3 per). Brady lost his favorite target in 2020, as TE Howard was lost for the season in last week's game. However, stepping in at TE will be a familiar face to Brady, Rob Gronkowski. WR Evans has loved the acquisition of Brady, grabbing 17 receptions with five TDs. Also, Miller (15 catches / 16.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Godwin (11 catches / 13.0 YPC / 1 TD) also not exactly slouches. RB Jones is off a very good season and is rounding into form with 253 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 12 catches. Brady loves to use his RBs as receivers and Sean McCoy (nine catches) and Leonard Fournette (seven catches) are reaping the benefits. Foles played a Super Bowl for the ages when he led the Eagles to a 41-33 win against the Patriots (and Brady) in Super Bowl LII. He was the game's MVP completing 28-of-43 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns plus caught a 1-yard TD pass on the “Philly Special" trick play that ranks as one of the most famous plays in NFL history. However, Foles has NEVER reached those heights again and will likely NEVER do so again. The Bears have a modest running game and it was all but completely shut down by the Colts, who held them to 28 rushing yards on 16 carries. Other than Allen Robinson (25 catches / 13.2 YPC / 2 TDs), the Bears have no receivers of note. Yes, the Bears opened 3-0 but those wins came over the Lions, Giants and Falcons, who have combined to go 1-11 SU. I doubt Brady is thinking "Super Bowl revenge" against Foles, but one never knows. What we do know is that when Brady overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31 last week, he became the NFL's all-time regular-season victories leader (222), regardless of position. In the Bears, Brady will face a team that's never beaten him, as he's 5-0 with 1,595 passing yards, 14 TD passes and just four interceptions against Chicago. All in all, the Bucs seem like a strong play as a small road favorite in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season and opened the 2020 season by taking a 17-0 lead over Washington in Week 1. However, NOTHING has gone right since that time. Washington would score that game's final 27 points, as the Eagles lost 27-17 to a team that went 3-13 in 2019 and has lost both games this season since beating the Eagles by 15 and 14 points (allowed 30 and 24 points). The 49ers were in last year's Super Bowl and held a 20-10 lead over KC with under 6 1/2 minutes left in the game. However, the Chiefs 'exploded' for three TDs in just a five-minute span, for a 31-20 victory. The Niners were upset at home in Week 1 by the Arizona Cardinals 24-20, as a seven-point favorite. San Francisco has rebounded with back-to-back wins the last two Sundays 31-13 and 36-9 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium against the pathetic Jets and Giants (a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS). Philly QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL at 63.9 and has already thrown six interceptions. RB Miles Sanders missed Week 1 but has returned to rush for 190 yards (5.0 YPC) and one TD, while catching seven passes for 48 yards. He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Wentz has a dynamic TE duo, Ertz (15 catches / one TD) and Goedert (13 catches / one TD). However, the Philly defense HAS to improve, as the Eagles have not forced a SINGLE turnovers on defense through 13 quarters this season (Eagles did recover a fumble on a punt return last week). Jimmy G got hurt in Week 2 and remains out. Nick Mullens started in Week 3, completing 25 of 36 for 343 yards with one TD and zero INTs (108.9 QB rating). Top RB Mostert remains out and McKinnon gets the call again. He's gained 139 yards (6.9 YPC) with two TDs so far but had just 38 yards on 14 attempts in Week 3. The Niners have dealt with key injuries this season, including Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, CB Richard Sherman, 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, RB Mostert and No. 1 receiver Deebo Samuel. The good news is that Kittle and Samuel will be back this week. The bad news is that TE Jordan Reed (11 catches with two TDs) joined RB Tevin Coleman on injured reserve. "Right now we're not a very good football team," Philly head coach Doug Pederson said. "We're not very smart. We're shooting ourselves in the foot. We're leaving touchdowns on the field offensively, and we're just not executing." I'm NOT ready to give up on Wentz. Facing an 0-3 start for the first time since 1999 last Sunday, Wentz drove the Eagles 75 yards in the final three minutes. He picked up nine yards on third-and-6 to the Bengals 19 and then ran in from the seven with a head-first dive into the end zone. Elliott's extra point tied it with 21 seconds left. However, neither team could do anything in overtime. San Francisco has been a poor home favorite, going just 7-17-1 ATS in that role its last 25 tries. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Bills v. Raiders +3.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 54 m | Show |
My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET. The Buffalo Bills are one of seven NFL teams still unbeaten (3-0) and will travel to Las Vegas in Week 4 for a game with the 2-1 Raiders. The Bills blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead last Sunday at home against the Rams but then got 'bailed out' by a 'phantom' defensive pass-interference call that allowed Josh Allen to complete a three-yard TD pass with 15 seconds to go (Bills won 35-32). Meanwhile, the Raiders lost for the first time in 2020, falling 36-20 in New England to the Pats. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. Buffalo has won its first three games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1991-92. Most would say that QB Josh Allen has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career in 2018 and 2019 but as I've noted before, he did become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. What all will agree upon is that here in 2020, he's taken his game to another level. He's completing 71.1% for 1,038 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 124.8). The acquisition of WR Stefon Diggs (formerly of the Vikings) has been HUGE. Diggs has 20 catches and two TDs plus along with returning WRs Beasley (15 catches / 15.4 YPC) and Brown (10 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Allen has quite a trio. A concern is Buffalo's defense, which after allowing just 16.2 PPG in 2019, has allowed 25.7 PPG after three games of 2020. Jon Gruden is in his second stint with the Raiders, with a stop in between in Tampa Bay with the Bucs (won the Super Bowl in his first season back in the 2002 season) and a VERY successful career in the TV booth. The Raiders were just 4-12 in his first season (2018) and 7-9 last season, However, the Raiders are now playing out of Las Vegas and things are looking up, although they do play in the AFC West with the KC Chiefs. QB Derek Carr has looked VERY good through three games, completing 74.0% for 784 yards with six TDs and zero INTs in 100 attempts (QB rating of 116.4). RB Josh Jacobs had a terrific rookie season (1,150 yards on 4.7 YPC with 7 TDs) and while his start is more modest in 2020 (252 yards on 3.7 YPC with 3 TDs), this guy is "a player!" TE Waller is Carr's top target with 20 catches (just one TD) but he's averaging only 7.9 YPC (that HAS to improve). Defense has not been a Las Vegas strength, as the Raiders are allowing 30.0 PPG on 406. YPG. I have great respect for the Bills but the Raiders beat the Saints in their only previous game in their brand-new stadium, 34-24 back in Week 2 on MNF. Buffalo's defense allowed Miami to score 28 and the Rams to score 32 (no one counts team's win over the Jets) and Carr and the Raiders can match scores with Allen and the Bills. I'm backing the home dog, as the Bills suffer their first loss of 2020. Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET. The Cowboys opened the 2020 season with a new head coach for the first time in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Dallas welcomes the Browns to "Jerry's House" on Sunday just 1-2, with each of its first three games being decided in the final minute. A questionable offensive PI call prevented Dallas an opportunity to kick a game-tying FG at the end of its Week 1 game at the Rams (lost 20-17) and then Dallas overcame a 39-24 deficit at home to the Falcons in Week 2, scoring the game's final 16 points inside the last five minutes of the 4thb quarter (game-winning FG in a 40-39 victory came at 0:00). Dallas then overcame a 30-15 deficit at Seattle to take a 31-30 lead, only to see Seattle score with 1:47 to go. Down 38-31, Dallas drove to Seattle's 26-yard line, when Prescott was picked off to end the game. We ALL know the plight of the Cleveland Browns, who won just four games from 2015-17.However, Baker Mayfield threw two TD passes, Nick Chubb ran for two more scores and the Browns moved over .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 34-20 win Sunday over the Washington Football Team in Week 3. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has the Browns 2-1 for the first time since 2011. It's also the first time they've had a winning record since Week 14 in 2014, as Cleveland had gone 90 consecutive weeks without a winning record. As the ad once said, "Is it Real or is it Memorex?" Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Mayfield has thrown for a modest 564 yards in three games (5 TDs / 2 INTs / QB rating of 91.5), as Cleveland's running game has been terrific. Chubb has 292 yards (5.7 YPC) and four TDs, while Hunt has 204 yards (5.2 YPC), giving the NFL's third-best rushing total (170.3 YPG on 5.2 YPC). Speaking of RBs, Dallas' Zeke Elliott, a two-time rushing champion, has a modest 219 yards on YPC. Dallas QB Dak Prescott finished 37 of 57 for 472 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Seattle setting career highs for yards and attempts. However, Dallas lost. Prescott has topped 400 yards passing his last two games (is averaging 396.0 YPG on the season) but is that really helping? Better balance is a MUST plus the Dallas defense has been dreadful the last two weeks, allowing 39 and 38 points The Cowboys have failed to cover 10 of their last 12 as a non-division home favorite but backing the Browns on the road is NOT an option. Yes, they own a winning record (2-1) for the FIRST time in 91 weeks but is that really a 'buy' sign? Cleveland's two wins have come over 0-2-1 Cincinnati (2-14 in 2019) and 1-2 Washington (3-13 in 2019) and come in 5-36 SU on the road since the start of the 2015 season (also: Browns are 6-15 ATS their last 21 vs NFC foes). Cowboys "get this one right" and win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | Top | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The 1-2 New Orleans Saints visit the 1-2 Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Saints come in off back-to-back losses, having lost consecutive games for the first time in THREE years. As for the Lions, they are well familiar with consecutive losses but Detroit just ended an 11-game, 11-month losing streak with last Sunday's 26-23 upset of the Cardinals in the desert (game-winning 39-yard FG came on the game's final play). The Saints had hoped that WR Michael Thomas would return from a groin injury that has kept him out the last two games but he was ruled out late Friday. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. He's been missed, although Brees is completing 70.2% for 760 yards with six TDs and just one INT (106.2 QB rating). In fact, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. RB Alvin Kamara didn't agree to a contract extension until right before the opening of the 2020 season but he enters this game leading the Saints in rushing with 153 yards and three TDs plus also leads the team in receiving with 27 catches for 285 yards and three TDs (he owns NFL-high six TDs from scrimmage). The Lions finally ended an 11-game slide with last Sunday's win. The Lions were outgained 377-322 by the Cardinals, as the game's key stat was Detroit picking off Arizona QB Kyler Murray three times, while the Detroit offense did not turn the ball over even once. Matt Stafford had a solid game (270 yards passing with two TDs) but Detroit is still struggling to run the ball. Adrian Peterson is the team's featured back but Detroit ran for just 90 yards against the Cards, averaging 3.3 YPG. A.P. has 209 yards rushing (4.9 YPV) but does not have a rushing TD and the team comes in rushing for only 105.7 YPG. Detroit's defense is allowing 30.7 PPG on 409.3 YPG (both totals rank near the bottom of all NFL teams). Embattled Detroit head coach Matt Patricia could really use two straight victories, as Green Bay and Chicago are both 3-0 atop the NFC North. "It's a huge difference between being 2-2 and the alternative," Lions running back Adrian Peterson acknowledged. He's got that right. Getting back to New Orleans, the Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). The Saints sure don't want to fall to 1-3 and New Orleans does enter this contest having gone 12-4 (75%) ATS its last 16 as a road favorite. As for the Lions, they did eke out a win last week but as noted, that ended an 11-game losing streak in which they were 2-9 ATS. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals -1 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. It's NOT exactly Brady vs Brees like in Week 1, when the Bucs played the Saints but Sunday's Week contest between the Jags and Browns will feature Garner Minshew vs Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He opened his sophomore season completing 73.8 percent for 787 yards with six TDs and three INTs (101.3 QB rating). You may just have heard about Burro, last year's Heisman winner who led LSU to a 15-0 season and the national championship, then was the overall No. 1 pick by the Bengals. He has opened his rookie season completing 64.5 percent for 821 yards with five TDs and just one INT (more modest 89.0 QB rating). Both QBs have shaky offense lines, leading Minshew to be sacked 10 times and Burrow has suffered 14 sacks. Neither QB gets much help from their respective running games, as the Jags are averaging 109.3 YPG on the ground, while the Bengals are averaging a woeful 79.3 YPG. The Jags no longer have RB Fournette, who topped 1,000 yards rushing in TWO of his three seasons with the Jags, including 1,152 last year. Rookie James Robinson has become the team's featured back and has 210 yards on the ground with all three of the team's rushing TDs on a solid 4.9 YPC. He's also added 10 catches for 129 yards. So far, he's been a better-than-expected replacement. Good news for the Jags is that DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), is expected to play, after missing last week's game (7 catches / 15.6 YPC / 1 TD). Fellow WRs Cole has 15 catches and to TDs but averages only 9.9 YPC, while Shenault has 11 catches and one TD but averages only 9.5 YPC. The Jacksonville D is allowing a middle-of-the-pack 364.3 YPG but also 28.0 PPG. Cincy RB Mixon has 164 yards rushing (about 70% of the team's total, while averaging just 3.2 YPC. Bernard is listed as a RB but has just TWO carries on the season and he's basically a receiving option out of the backfield (12 catches) in 2020. WR Boyd leads with 21 catches and former star Green has 13 catches but a sad 8.9 YPC average. His first five seasons he averaged 983 catches per, topping 1,000 yards in each while hauling in 45 TDs. If Burrow can't get him back in form, Green may soon be an ineffective player. The Cincy D is allowing 392.3 YPG but a few less points than Jacksonville's D, at 24.7 PPG. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'implode,' going 2-10 the rest of the wat-y. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-2 start this season means the Jags are 9-22 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-12 on the road. The Bengals made FIVE straight postseason appearances under QB Andy Dalton from 2011-15 but lost each time in their first playoff game. FOUR straight losing seasons followed, including 2019's 2-14 disaster. That gave them the No. 1 pick, which the team used to take Burrow. How will the "Burrow era" play out? TBD. The Bengals have plenty of weaknesses but they've been in ALL three games, losing 16-13 at home to the Chargers in Week 1 (led 13-6 in the 4th quarter), 35-30 at Cleveland in Week 2 and almost beat the Eagles last Sunday in Philly, settling for a 23-23 tie in OT (Eagles tied the game on a 75-yard TD drive with 21 seconds to go). I REALLY like what I've seen from Burrow and I'm betting that Week 4 will 'be the charm,' as Joe gets his first NFL win as a starting QB. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 4:00 ET. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs). Florida also gained 196 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). Ole Miss QB Matt Corral threw for 395 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) but scoring 35 points doesn't help much when one's team allows 51! The Rebels now head out on the road to play at Kentucky, which lost 29-13 last Saturday but played a very competitive game in losing at then-No. 8 Auburn. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards, so expect the Ole Miss offense to have a tougher time here on the road than it did last week at home. Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3–only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the Regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish. Trey Wilson started at QB for Kentucky last week and threw for 239 yards (one TD / one INT), with WR Ali catching nine balls for 98 yards, while RB Smoke ran for 62 yards on just seven attempts (8.9 YPC). However, three TOs did in the Wildcats. Kentucky should fare MUCH better against an Ole Miss defense which looked pretty helpless against Florida. Ole Miss enters having lost SEVEN straight on the road, with the Rebels last road win coming at Arkansas back in the 2018 season (note: the Razorbacks have currently lost 20 straight SEC games). The Ole Miss defense has allowed an average off 32.4 PPG in that seven-game road slide, while Kentucky plays its home opener having gone 12-3 SU at home the last two seasons. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | Memphis -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Memphis at 3:30 ET. COVID-19 has surely impacted the Memphis season as the Tigers opened their 2020 season back on Sep 5 with a 37-24 home win over Arkansas St (Tigers we favored by just under three TDs). The program has since had to pause activities and cancel games against Houston and UTSA, so the team's second game of the current season (its conference-opener at SMU) is being played almost a FULL month after its season-opener (unprecedented break between Games 1 and 2?). Unlike Memphis, Sonny Dykes' SMU Mustangs are 3-0, after a 50-7 rout of Stephen F. Austin last week. The Tigers lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida St, right after Memphis won the AAC championship game. That victory gave the Tigers a 12-1 record and earned the school its first-ever New Year's Six bowl berth (lost 53-39 to Penn St). Taking over for Norvell is Ryan Silverfield, whose only game as a head coach was last year's Cotton Bowl. He gets credit for keeping QB Brady White and WR Demonte Coxie at Memphis. White threw for 4,014 yards (454 vs Penn St in the Cotton Bowl), becoming only the second Memphis QB to do so. He had 33 TDs and only 11 INTs, with Coxie as his main target (76 catches / 1,276 yards / 9 TDs). What Memphis didn't count on was RB Kenneth Gainwell, who had 1,459 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) as a freshman plus added 51 catches for 610 yards with three more TDs, to opt-out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. White completed 27 of 37 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State and has passed for more than 7,500 yards to go along with 63 TD in his career at Memphis. Coxie had eight catches (one TD) vs Ark St but the star was TE Dykes, who caught 10 passes and two TDs, coming back off an injury that forced him to miss almost all of 2019. SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three year s at La Tech, before getting the head coaching jog at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs He's off to a good start this season, completing 64 of 94 passes for 852 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. WRs Roberson (17 catches / 3 TDs), Gray (8 catches / 19.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and Rice (13 catches / 18.5 yPC) plus TE Granson (eight catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 26.7 YPG (6.0 YPC), led by Bentley (2380 yards / 10.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and McDaniel (293 yards on 5.0 YPC). Why not SMU as a small home dog? After all, SMU has already played three games and Memphis head coach Silverfield admitted the team will have to rotate more players in and out in all three phases of the game. He added that "a majority" of his team is back and he is confident the players are in a good spot to play. "We feel like we are getting back where we need to be," he said. "Still not at full strength, nor will we be at kickoff. But we are getting to where we need to be to where we feel comfortable having normal practices." As for SMU's Dykes, he told MustangVision that it will be hard to get a read on Memphis given its layoff, but he pointed out that the Tigers have won a lot of games over the last three years and that they will be ready to play. "They may not have played for a while, but those guys have a lot of skins on the wall," Dykes said. "They have won a lot of football games." In fact, Memphis has "won a lot of football games" against SMU. Last year's 54-48 win was not as close as the final score, as SMU scored two TDs (plus converted both two-point tries) in the games' final eight minutes (Memphis led, 54-32). Let me add that the Tigers' win in 2019 was their SIXTH straight over SMU, including wins of 28-18, 51-7 and 48-10 in Dallas. Note that while RB Gainwell opted-out, RB Clark gained 105 yards (5.3 YPC) in the Tigers' game vs Ark St, leading the way for Memphis to rush for 222 yards on 4.7 YPC (team averaged 186.7 YPG with Gainwell). That Ark St team Memphis beat 37-24 went into Kansas St and beat the Wildcats 35-31 as a two-TD underdog the very next week. Ask Oklahoma if Kansas St is any good? Meanwhile, SMU's 3-0 start has come against a 1-3 Texas St team (3-9 in 2019), 1-1 North Texas (4-8 in 2019) and SF Austin, an FCS school. The "price is right" for a SEVENTH straight win for Memphis over SMU, which practically guarantees a cover. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field last Saturday with a home contest against Kansas. Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in a 47-14 home win over Kansas. Baylor takes to the road this Saturday to face on Big-12 rival West Va, which has opened 1-1 after losing 27-13 at then-No. 15 Oklahoma State last weekend. West Virginia fell behind 17-0 in the first half and managed just one TD (Winston Wright's 70-yard scoring pass from QB Jarret Doege). Baylor will need MUCH more from Brewer in this one, as he has thrown for more than 3,000 years the last two seasons with a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. The running game totaled 203 yards on 4.7 YPC, besting last season's average of 166.4 YPG. However, let's remember Baylor was hosting Big-12 doormat Kansas, which fell to 6-84 in conference play since 2010 (note: Jayhawks are also 2-52 SU on the road in that span against all opponents). Gaining just 352 yards against a Kansas defense that allowed 475.2 YPG last season (122nd), is NOT acceptable. Baylor's defense, which returned just two starters, wasn't tested by an inept Kansa team but that WON'T be the case against MOST (all?) of its other conference foes. West Va QB Jarrett Doege was sacked five times vs Okla St but still managed to throw for 285 yards (70-yard TD pass to Wright, helped). West Va had a non-existent rushing game last season (973.3 YPG ranked 128th of 130 teams) but Leddie Brown ran for 104 vs Okla St and has 227 yards in the team's first two games. West Va did allow two, 100-yard runners against the Cowboys but overall, held an Okla St team that averaged 453.9 YPG last season to a modest 342 yards. These schools have met as conference foes eight times and Baylor is 0-4 SU in Morgantown. Brewer passed for 277 yards and two TDs in 2019's 17-14 home win over West Va but back in 2018 at Morgantown, threw three INTs in a 58-14 loss. Note that while Baylor flourished with an 11-3 season in 2019, West Va was just 5-7. Yet, the Mountaineers held Baylor to season-lows in FDs (17) and total yards (287) in that three-point loss. Baylor expects to end its 0-4 run in Morgantown but as Mick Jagger once sang, "You Can't Always Get What You Want!" Home dog wins outright. Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. Is tonight's Kansas City/Baltimore game a preview of this season's AFC championship game? Maybe so, but note it was the one everyone expected to see last January. However, the Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 at home by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Both teams have opened 2-0 in 2020 and while the Chiefs come in as the defending champs, the Ravens will enter this game on a 14-game regular season winning streak, with an average winning margin of 18.8 PPG! It pits 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes against 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first NFL championship since 1970 last season and was the Super Bowl MVP, while Jackson (36-6 TD/INT ratio and 113.3 QB rating) guided the Ravens to a 14-2 regular-season record, set the league mark for yards rushing by a QB (1,206 yards / 6.9 YPA / 7 TDs) and directed the most prolific running attack in NFL history (206.0 YPG) . Are you ready for some football? The Chiefs were dominant in their season opener, a 34-20 home win over Houston. Mahomes passed for a modest 211 yards but threw three TD passes (zero INTs) for a QB rating of 123.3, while rookie RB Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards and a TD. However, the Chiefs were lucky to escape with a win at LA vs the Chargers in Week 2, needing PK Harrison Butker's two field goals of 58 yards last week in an overtime win. Mahomes had 302 yards passing (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but Edwards-Helaire had only 38 yards rushing on 10 carries. The KC defense has allowed 419.5 YPG but just 20 points in each win. It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG). The Ravens have been waiting since 2017 to have a Monday night game at home but now that they got one, they'll be forced to play without the backing of their fans (zero in attendance because of the pandemic). These teams met in Week 3 last season, as the Chiefs built a 23-6 halftime lead, before holding off a late Baltimore comeback (KC won, 33-28). The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, with TWO of those losses coming against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Saints are back in primetime for teh second straight week, as they welcome the 2-0 Packers to New Orleans for Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Packers own two impressive wins, 43 34 at Minnesota (game was not as close as the final score) and 42-12 at home over the Lions. The Saints opened with a 34-23 home win over TB 12 and the Bucs in Week 1 but then lost by almost that exact same score (34-24) at Las Vegas on MNF to the Raiders in Week 2. BOTH teams are coming off 13-3 seasons in 2019. Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. The Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. Rodgers has thrown for 604 yards in the two wins with six TDPs and zero INTs (119.4 QB rating). Jones looks to be even better this season, running for 234 yards on 6.9 YPC with three TDs, while catching eight passes with another TD. Adams is a possession receiver with 17 catches and two TDs, while Valedes-Scantling ( 7catches / 22.9 YPC) and Lazard ( 7 catches / 15.4 YPC) have helped Rodgers stretch the field. Brees had two TDs passes in Week 1 (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. Brees threw for 312 yards on MNF but a 17-7 first-half lead was wiped away as the Raiders outscored teh Saints 27-7 from the last second quarter through the end of the game. The good news was that Kamara ran for 95 yards and caught NINE passes. The bad news is that Thomas sat out the Saints' loss in Las Vegas with an ankle sprain and did not take the field when the Saints returned to practice on Thursday. Brees can always rely on TE Cook but he'll need the veteran Sanders plus two young WRs (Smith and Harris) to step up. Green Bay WR receiver Davante Adams left last Sunday's victory over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Rodgers will need him close to 100 percent in this one. Yes, Green Bay is 2-0 but its wins are over a pair of 0-2 teams in the Vikings and Lions, who are a combined 0-4 ATS to open the 2020 season. The Saints enter this contest on a 12-4 (75%) ATS run over their last 16 regular season games. The Saints own an excellent rush D (3.3 YPC) and slowing down Jones could be the key to a victory. I had the Saints in Week 1, went against them in Week 2 with the Raiders and I'm now back "on" them here vs The Pack. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 14 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The LA Rams have opened 2-0 after an impressive 37-19 road win in Week 2 at Philadelphia. The Rams are back on the East Coast again on Sunday, when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are also off to a 2-0 start. The duo is part of a group of 11 NFL teams that have opened 2-0 but barring a tie, one team will walk away 3-0 and the other 2-1 after Sunday's contest. On the coaching sidelines, it will be a battle of wits between two Seans. Sean McVay got his first NFL head coaching gig with the Rams when he was hired in January of 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era, at the age of 30 years, 354 days. He immediately led the Rams to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2017 and then went 13-3 in 2018, taking the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's 9-7 finish kept LA out of the playoffs but a 3-0 start would sure be 'sweet,' considering the Rams play in the brutally tough NFC West (Arz and Sea are also 2-0 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 1-1). The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. Buffalo's Sean is Mr McDermott, who was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East? Buffalo's 2-0 start surely has fans taking notice. The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. However, as noted, the Rams are 2-0. QB Jared Goff was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft and he's surely NOT disappointed. He was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys in Week 1 (completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT), but threw for 270 yards with three TDs and zero INTs vs Philly (142.0 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley was the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade but was released and signed with the Falcons. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but second-year pro Darrell Henderson led vs Philly with 81 yards (6.8 YPC) with one TD. Despite the team's defensive losses, the Rams held the Cowboys to just three points in the second half on SIX possessions and then Philly to just 19 points, while forcing three TOs. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th, overall). He has not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. The 2020 season looks like a "breakout" one for the former Wyoming Cowboy. He threw for 312 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets and followed with a career-high 417 passing yards vs the Dolphins in Week 2, with a career-best four TDs and again, zero INTs (QB rating of 147.0). The addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, is a big deal. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He had eight catches for 153 yards a TD last week (had eight catches for just 86 yards in Week 1) and joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs in 2019) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs in 2019). Buffalo had the Jets down 27-10 before a TD with under a minute to go made it a 27-17 final. Last week, it was 31-20 Buffalo, before the Dolphins got the backdoor cover with another TD with under a minute to go. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games (including playoff games) but this is a tough spot for LA, back on the East Coast for a second straight week. I really like this Buffalo team and after B2B games against AFC foes, the Bills draw their first NFC opponent of the season. That's NOT bad news, as the Bills are on a current 11-5-1 ATS run vs NFC opponents. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. I noted last week in taking NC St over Wake Forest that the Wolfpack returned TEN starters on offense, so we should expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020, as NC ST had averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak. Talk about 'hitting the nail on the head!' NC St won 45-42, rolling up 463 yards. The Wolfpack travel to Blacksburg, Va Saturday night to face Va Tech, which will be playing its first game of the 2020 season. Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one. Looking at NC State's win over Wake, last year's starting QB Devin Leary did not play because he missed too much practice due to COVID-19. Bailey Hockman was the surprise starter and had a decent game, completing 16 of 23 for 191 yards with a TDP and an INT. However, NC St rolled up 45 points due to a rushing attack that ran for 270 yards on 5.5 YPC. RBs Person (99 yards on 7.1 YPC with two TDs) and Knight (97 yards on 8.8 YPC with one TD) led the way. The troubling issue lingering from the win was that NC St's defense allowed Wake forest to score 42 points while gaining 32 FDs (note: Wake scored 13 points, 10 of them late, on 15 FDs against Clemson). Va Tech has to be really anxious to finally play a game and after six- and eight-win season the last two, Fuente's 'star' has dimmed. Seeing a 15-game winning streak over rival Virginia in the team's regular season finale really hurt, as did a 37-30 loss to Kentucky in the Belk Bowl. However, Va Tech has NINE starters back on offense and 10 more on Defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster retired after last year's bowl loss but Justin Hamilton takes over and he was a Foster disciple. The team's back-seven is excellent and don't expect NC St to run at will like it did last week, as Va Tech allowed 139.3 YPG on the ground last season (46th in the nation). NC St had SEVEN home games in 2019 but in team's five away games, the Wolfpack D allowed 38.4 PPG, as NC State lost by an average margin of 18.4 points. No. 20 Va Tech wins this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Duke v. Virginia -5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 119 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 4:00 ET David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Duke instead opened at then-No. 10 Notre Dame and lost 27-13 (not bad as 3-TD dog) but last week's 26-6 home loss to BC was not 'pretty.' The Blue Devils are back on the road this Saturday at ACC rival Virginia, which will be playing its first game of 2020. Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he's led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory. Duke's new starting QB, Chase Brice (a Clemson transfer), has so far flopped. He averaged 238.0 YPG passing but in 79 attempts, has yet to throw a TD pass (has two INTs). It sure doesn't help him that Duke's running game looks pretty sad, averaging 109.5 YPG on 3.7 YPC. The Notre Dame loss seemed like a positive, until Duke had five TOs against BC, including FOUR inside the BC red zone. Without a game under its belt, Virginia is somewhat of a mystery. Replacing QB Perkins (3,538 passing yards with 22 TDs and 769 rushing yards with 11 TDs) will not be easy. We'll see who gets the start. The running game should be fine, as Wayne Taulapapa may have had just 473 yards but he's a tough runner who scored 12 TDs. More importantly, the OL returns all five starters, who are also seniors. The defense loses three key players but NINE starters are back, plus 15 returning players made at least one start in 2019. Mendenhall is a quality coach and his team has put together back-to-back winning seasons while going 12-1 SU at home (7-0 last season). In his four-year rivalry with Cutcliffe, he's 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 17.3 PPG. Lay the small number. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 1:30 ET. Toledo made Matt Campbell its permanent head coach at the end of 2011, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS at 32-years-old. He coached four full seasons at Toledo (2012–201), going 35–15. The 2015 team peaked at No. 20 in the AP Poll. He left Toledo before its bowl game in 2015 and took the Iowa St job. His first team went 3-9 but the last three seasons (2017-19) he's taken the Cyclones to three straight bowl games. Iowa St was ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but lost its season-opener on Sep 12, 31-14 to ULL at home, as almost a two-TD favorite. It marked ULL's first-ever win over a top-25 opponent on the road (had been 0-26 against ranked foes away from home). The school's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones have not played since and now play at TCU on Saturday in their Big 12 opener. This contest is not just TCU's conference opener but it's the Horned Frogs' FIRST game of 2020. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that' didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning seasons and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). However, TCU enters 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so it's almost a sure thing that the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (OK, maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19). ISU's Brock Purdy has already set 21 school records in just two seasons at QB. He fought injuries all season but still led the Big 12 in passing (306.3 YPG), while throwing 27 TDs and just nine INTs. Just five starters return on offense but a key returnee is Breece Hall, who averaged 101.6 YPG on the ground with nine TDs in his eight starts as a freshman. ISU may have the best (deepest?) group of TEs in CFB, as the trio of Kolar, Allen and Chase accounted for 75 catches and 10 TDs. The defense returns NINE starters and don't be fooled by that loss to ULL. The Ragin' Cajuns scored on an 85 KO return and an 83-yard punt return plus added a 78-yard TD pass that accounted for 29% of its 276 total yards. We haven't seen TCU play yet but we know that the offense returns only THREE starters, losing four of five OL. QB Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season but finished with modest totals of 2,007 passing yards and 15 TDs. The defense was first in the Big 12 in yards allowed (336.9 YPG) and 4th in points allowed (26.4 PPG) but again, only FOUR full-time starters are back. With ISU's recent surge and TCU's recent demise, the Cyclones have won TWO of the last three meetings (2017-19), including a 49-24 romp in Ames last season, when they ran up 436 yards on a much better defense than TCU will field here in 2020. Purdy had an 'ugly' effort vs ULL (16 of 35 for 145 yards with no TDs and one INT) but I feel strongly he'll bounce back here. What's more, TCU's starting QB Max Duggan has been battling a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. He was cleared to play on Monday but who knows? His likely replacement would be sophomore Matthew Downing, who has not taken a snap since 2018 and has 10 career pass attempts. ISU is not often a road favorite but the last three seasons under Campbell, the Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in that role. HUGE play on Iowa St. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Louisville +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12 noon ET. The only game played between ranked opponents prior to this Saturday (Sep 26) was last Saturday's 37-24 win by No. 17 Mia-Fl over No. 18 Louisville. There are three top-25 matchups on Sep 26, including No. 21 Pitt hosting No. 24 Louisville. The Panthers (2-0, 1-0 ACC) get their third straight home game to open the season, after wins over Austin Peay (55-0) and Syracuse (21-10). The Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) hope to 'right the ship' after a 47-34 loss at home to Miami. This marks Louisville's first road game of 2020. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinal were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. However, the Louisville D was not up to the challenge vs Miami, which rolled up 4763 yards. That said, the Louisville offense put up 30-plus points for the second straight game, with 516 yards (and 29 FDs) against a strong Miami defense. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 650 yards with six TDs and just two INTs, while the running game has averaged 176.5 YPG (Hawkins has 235 yards on 5.1 YPC). Outstanding WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards vs Western Ky and then added eight receptions for 114 yards with two TDs vs Miami. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi is in his sixth season and has led the school to a modest 38-29 record (includes TY's two wins. He's taken Pitt to a bowl in four of his first five seasons but Pitt has lost THREE of the four). Senior QB Kenny Pickett is in his third year as the starter but he's throw for only 492 yards with three TDs and one INT in the team's 2-0 start. he gets little help from his running game, which averages 137.0 YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Panthers defense has shined through two wins, allowing 154.0 YPG (third-best in the nation), including only 26 rushing yards per game, giving them the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation. That said, Pitt's first two opponents have been FCS Austin Peay and Syracuse, which has scored a total of just 16 points in opening 0-2.Louisville's offense has great balance (see above) and is averaging 32.5 PPG on 501.5 PPG to open its season. I'm a big fan of Satterfield and the Panthers are a poor 8-14-1 (40%) ATS as a home favorite under Narduzzi. In QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins and WR Atwell, Louisville owns the three-best offensive players in the game. Pitt last started a season 3-0 back in 2014 and I don't the Panthers open 3-0 this season. I'm calling for an OUTRIGHT Louisville win but YES, I'll take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +7 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 134 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET. Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins. The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997. I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.' The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93 yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win. As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog. Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 103 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET,. I featured a Brady (TB) vs Brees NO) marquee QB matchup in Week 1 (won with the Saints, BTW) and here in Week 2, it's a marquee head coaching matchup featuring Bill (NE) vs Pete (Sea) and it's showcased on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Carrol's first head coaching job was with the Jets (1994) and he went 6-10, before getting fired. However, he was hired by New England in 1997 and took the Pats to the playoffs that season and in 1998, before going 8-8 in 1999, when Bob Kraft fired him (guess who took over for him?). Carroll re-emerged at USC in 2000 and starting 2001, the Trojans never won less than 11 games in any season. A few noteworthy accomplishments were SEVEN consecutive AP Top-4 finishes, a 34-game winning streak, a national-record 33 consecutive weeks as the AP's No. 1-ranked team and two national titles. After a 9-4 finish in 2009 and amidst some controversy, he jumped to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. His first two seasons (2010 and 2011) saw Settle go 7-9 but the Seahawks actually won the NFC West in 2010. Beginning in 2012, the Seahawks have won 10-plus games in SEVEN of the last eight seasons, going to back-back Super Bowls at the end of the 2013 season (won) and the 2014 season (lost). Now to Belichick. He was Cleveland's head coach from 1991 through 1995 but NO ONE wins there anymore. Belichick was 36-44 overall, making ONE playoff appearance in . He then took over in New England after Carroll was fired and after a 5-11 season in 2001, has earned the right to claim being the NFL's best-ever head coach. Some guy named Brady stepped in and replaced an injured Bledsoe at QB in the 2001 season and led the Pats to their first Super Bowl title. They went just 9-7 in 2002 (missed the playoffs but from 2003 through 2019, have never won less than 10 games in a season, while adding FIVE more Super Bowl titles. That Brady guy may have had something to do with Belichick's success, but that's an argument for another day. Former league MVP Cam Newton is Belichick's starting QB in 2020 and he looked pretty darn good in Week 1, completing 15 of 19 for 155 yards (no TDs but ZERO interceptions!). He led the Pats in rushing yards with 75 and scored two TDs in the team's 21-1 win over Miami. New England's rushing game (minus Newton) is average at best (I think I'm being too kind) plus Newton's receiving corps isn't' much better. Edelman had five catches for 57 yards and Henry also had five catches but averaged just 7.5 YPC. However, New England's defense (despite significant players opting out), was as good as ever. The Pats led the NFL in points allowed in 2019 (14.1 PPG) and total yards (275.9 YPG) and bettered BOTH of those numbers vs the Dolphins, holding them to 11 points and 269 yards. Speaking of defense, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is a thing of the past, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards (THREE receivers topped 100 yards) in Week 1. However, Seattle's Russell Wilson was brilliant, completing 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). When asked about Wilson this past week, Belichick said, "Honestly, I think he's in a way underrated by the media or the fans, I don't know. But I don't really see anybody better than this player, This guy is a tremendous player." Seattle's running game is a 'mess,' with Hyde and Carson combining for 44 yards on 3.4 YPC in Week 1. However, when the final score was in, Seattle won 38-25. Sunday's matchup between the 69-year-old Carroll and 68-year-old Belichick will bring together the two oldest coaches currently in the NFL. Even more noteworthy is that it's a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls in recent years (XLIX), where NE snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds with an interception at the goal line (Why not run 'Beast Mode?'). CenturyLink Field is one of the loudest venues in the NFL but will be silent for Seattle's home opener, as no fans will be allowed in for at least the first three home games. That said, Seattle is on a MONEY-MAKING run of 13-4 ATS in home openers. As for the Pats, without Brady, any past New England trends are "non-applicable." Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The LA Rams eked out a 20-17 Week 1 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, when they opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium. On the other side of the country, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 17-0 in the nation's capital against the Washington Football Team, before Washington scored the game's final 27 points in a 10-point Philly loss. As the Rams visit Philly to take on the Eagles in this Week 2 contest, all eyes will be on the QB matchup between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Some quick history. Two QBs have been selected Nos. 1-2 in the NFL draft only SEVEN times since 1967. However, it NEVER worked out for both teams until Goff (Rams) and Wentz (Eagles) went 1-2 in the 2016 draft. Wentz finished third in MVP voting his sophomore season (2017) when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl title, although they would win without him after he tore two knee ligaments late in the season (threw for 3,296 yards with a 33-7 ratio in 13 games), Goff followed by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance the following season (201*0, where they lost 13-3 to New England (Goff threw for 4,688 yards with a 32-12 ratio). The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. Goff was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys, completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but McVay went into the game expecting to give more playing time to rookie Cam Akers, who started and ran for 39 yards. McVay is likely to give more work to Akers and second-year pro Darrell Henderson against the Eagles, The defense did a VERY good job vs Dallas, holding the Cowboys to just three points in the second half, on SIX possessions. Wentz (270 yards with two TDs and two INTs) had two TD passes as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead at Washington in the second quarter but a non-existent running game (17 for 57 yards / 3.4 YPC), an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed eight sacks and three TOs, "did in" Philadelphia. The bright spot was the Philly D, which allowed just 80 rushing yards (2.2 YPC) and 159 passing yards. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 20-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. However, the Eagles have won SIS straight against the Rams (6-0 ATS, as well), including their most recent meeting in 2018, when the Eagles won 30-23 at LA in Week 15 as a 13 1/2-point underdog. Philly RB Miles Sanders is expected to return for the Eagles after missing the opener with a hamstring injury. His addition is no small deal, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Eagles bounce back with a win and avoid an 0-2 start. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest v. NC State -2 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 58 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* ACC Game of the Year is on NC State at 8:00 ET. Dave Clawson is in his seventh season at Wake Forest. He opened with back-to-back season of 3-9 but has led Wake to four straight bowls the last four years 30-22 overall0, winning three bowls in a row before last year's 27-21 loss to Michigan St. A fifth straight winning season (and bowl trip) may be asking "too much" for the Demon Deacons in 2020, as Clawson unexpectedly had to replace QB Jamie Newman (2,868 passing yards with 26 TDs and 574 rushing yards with 6 TDs), who is a graduate-transfer at Georgia. The multi-tool QB salvaged Wake's 2018 season and led Wake to a 7-1 start in 2019, before injuries set in. The Demon Deacons routed NC State 44-10 on Nov 2 and at 7-1, were ranked 19th in the AP poll. However, Wake stumbled to a 1-4 finish. Wake was originally expected to open at Old Dominion and follow with home games against Appalachian St and Villanova but COVID-19 had other ideas. Wake instead opened against No. 1 Clemson last Saturday and offered little resistance in a 37-13 loss. Clemson 'called off the dogs' with a 37-3 lead and 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points allowed Wake to earn (?) a 'backdoor cover!' Wake travels to Raleigh on Saturday night to take on NC State, which has yet to play a game. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's current 2020 schedule. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-20. NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters return on offense, so expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). Sam Hartman replaces Newman at QB for Wake but he was just 11 of 21 for 182 yards against Clemson and when he was in, Wake accounted for just THREE points. Wake's running game gained just 37 yards on 34 attempts and the passing game was severely hampered when WR Sage Surratt (66 catches for 9 TDs before getting hurt in the team's ninth game and winding up with shoulder surgery), "opted out" prior to the season. True, NC State St is "no Clemson" but the home team has dominated this series the last two-plus decades, going with a 19-4 SU and 18-5 ATS. Last year's game was a "no contest," as Wake won at home, 44-10. However, Newman had 307 yards passing and rushing, while accounting for five TDs (3 TDP and two rushing scores). As noted above, he's now at Georgia. NC St opened last season 4-0 at home but was never the same after that 44-10 loss at Wake. The Wolfpack lost their final three home games but all came vs bowl-bound opponents Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. Prior to NC St's home loss to Clemson on Nov 16 of 2019, the Wolfpack were on a 15-2 SU run at home, Note that the last time NC St hosted Wake was in 2018 and the Wolfpack were 19 1/2-point favorites. That makes Saturday's pointspread (I got NC St minus-2) look pretty tempting. "Big Play" here on the Wolfpack! Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on Louisville at 7:30 ET. Mark Richt's first season at Miami was 2016 .The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after a 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin in 2018. His DC Manny Diaz had already moved on to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Miami struggled for most of 2019, going just 6-6 in the regular season. The 'Canes then lost 14-0 to La Tech in the Independence Bowl, as the Bulldogs became the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. Pretty sure Miami hasn't included that factoid on its resume.Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. Both schools have opened 1-0, as Miami won its 14th straight home opener 31-14 over UAB and Louisville won at home over Western Ky, 35-21.The Hurricanes lost several players to either graduation, the NFL or opting out due to coronavirus concerns. That group included leading rusher Deejay Dallas, leading receiver K.J. Osborn, leading tackler Shaq Quarterman, top cornerback Trajan Bandy and the leader in sacks Greg Rousseau, with 15.5. However, in D'Eriq King (a Houston graduate transfer), the 'Canes have an electric dual-threat QB, King passed for 144 yards and one TD and added 83 rushing yards and another TD. That performance extended his active NCAA-record streak of 16 consecutive games with at least one TD pass and one TD run. Carson stepped in as the team's featured back and gained 134 yards (7.9 YPC) while scoring two TDs. Miami's known for its "D" and the team's "stop-unit" didn't disappoint, holding the Blazers to 14 points of 285 yards. Speaking of "playing defense," Louisville allowed three TDs in its win over Western Ky but one needs to look MUCH deeper than the final score to objectively judge the team's defensive effort. The Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western KY's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the Cardinals had a nice effort. They had four plays of more than 40 yards and junior QB Micale Cunningham completed 19 of 34 passes for 343 yards with three TDs and just one interception. WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards. However, with extra attention being paid to Atwell, fellow WRs Dez Fitzpatrick and Braden Smith each had 110 yards in receptions (four catches each, averaging 27.5 per!). RBs Hawkins and Hall combined for 137 yards on the ground, averaging 5.5 YPC. Miami rolled at home last year 52-27 over Louisville but the Cards' 2019 defense allowed 33.4 PPG (109) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). This season's D was terrific last week (see above) and while Miami's "O," led by King will be a tougher assignment, I 'love' the "revenge angle" in this matchup. After all, Miami is just 4-10 SU in road and neutral site games the last two seasons (including 0-2 in bowls, losing by a combined scores of 49-3). Miami will basically have to win here to cover and I'll take Satterfield over Diaz ANYTIME on the sidelines! Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss -5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Southern Miss at 7:30 ET. La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is entering his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marked the SIXTH consecutive season in which he'd led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH one. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. La Tech was supposed to open at Baylor last Saturday but that game was postponed due to COVID-19. That makes this Sep 19 game at Southern Miss the school's 2020 opener. Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1973. Coming anywhere near 10 wins this year will be near-impossible, as the Bulldogs are currently scheduled to play just 11 games, assuming there are no more COVID issues. QB J'Mar Smith will be sorely missed, as he threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement will be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. FIVE of the team's top-six pass catchers return but none had more than Smoke Harris' 47 catches and he averaged just 7.4 YPC. Senior RB Henderson is back and he ran for 1,062 yards (5.6 YPC) and 15 TDs last season. However, the defense returns just TWO starters (nine of top-12 tacklers are gone) from a unit that allowed 21.8 PPG (30th) on 377.7 YPG (53rd). The bright spot in Southern Miss' season-opening loss was QB Jack Abraham, who completed 69% of his passes and threw for 314 yards in 32 attempts without an INT (also didn't throw a TD). The running game remains a mess, as the team averaged just 117.5 YPG (121st) last season and was able to garner only 95 yards (2.6 YPC) against South Alabama. The defense can't be as bad as it showed vs South Alabama and I expect a big bounce-back effort by the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss has been to 18 bowls from 1997-through 2019 (a 23-year span) and while I wouldn't typically play a team right after its head coach resigned, I almost have to believe that the players will rally around the 30-year-old Walden. Abraham had a good game passing back on Sep 3 (see above) and should 'love' going up against a La Tech defense that returns just two starters, having lost all four starting DBs. Southern Miss has had two-weeks-plus to 'stew' over that loss to South Alabama and I expect at least a two-TD margin of victory over La Tech, playing its first game of 2020. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 76 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Ohio play is on the Cin Bengals at 8:20 ET. The Browns opened the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Marvin Lewis took over at Cincinnati and had just ONE playoff appearance in his first six seasons. However, he then led the Bengals to SIX postseason appearances over a seven-year stretch (2009-15) but the Bengals always lost their first playoff game. Three straight losing years followed (2016-18) and he was finally fired. Zac Taylor got the job (his first head coaching gig) in 2019 and the Bengals were just 2-14. However, Cincy was pinning its 2020 hopes on Heisman-winner Jeff Burrow out of LSU, fresh off one of CFB's most prolific seasons. Joe Burrow's NFL debut (he was the only rookie QB to start the first week of the season) was a mixed bag. He ran 23 yards for a TD but was a modest 22 of 36 for 193 yards without a TD pass. He put the Bengals in range for a dramatic, late-game win but threw an interception on a shovel pass to thwart one late scoring chance and then watched as Randy Bullock missed a 31-yard field goal with two seconds left, clinching the Chargers' 16-13 win. The good news was that the Cincy "D," which allowed 26.3 PPG in 2019, held the Chargers to just 16 points. The Browns have won just ONE game on Opening Day since returning to the NFL in 1999 and last Sunday was no different. The Cleveland D had no answer for Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 25 for 275 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (152.1 QB rating). Jackson also added 45 yards rushing. As for Mayfield, he was a non-factor, going 21 of 39 for 189 yards with one TD and one INT. The offense converted just 3 of 12 third downs and was 0 for 3 on 4th downs These are two sad-sack franchises but while I think the Browns 'whiffed' with Mayfield, I believe the Bengals "have a keeper" in Burrow. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 104 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the Den Broncos at 10:20 ET. The Tennessee Titans opened the 2019 season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,540, then took control of the Titans' offense. The Titans would go 7-3 the rest of the way, averaging 30.4 PPG. They qualified as a wild card and then beat the Pats 23-10 on the road, followed by a shocking upset over the AFC's No. 1 seed, a 28-12 win in Baltimore. Henry ran for 182 and 195 yards (5.9 YPC) in those two wins, while Tannehill basically 'watched' (15 of 29 for just 160 yards in the two wins). Tennessee's 'Cinderella' run ended in the AFC championship game, when the Chiefs won, 35-24 (Tenn led 17-7 but KC then scored the game's next 28 points!). The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. Tennessee visits Denver for the second-half of the NFL's Monday Night doubleheader, as the Broncos host the Titans in an empty Empower Field at Mile High. I'm not even REMOTELY sold on Tannehill at QB and while Henry's a DOMINATING force in the backfield, he has struggled in two games against Denver in his career. He ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec 11, 2016 (no big deal there) but he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That EASILY was Henry's worst game last season. Tennessee added two "big names" on defense, Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. However, Clowney didn't sign his contract until Sep 7 and Beasley didn't pass his physical until Sep 5, after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Beasley is out and playing in the altitude of Denver could limit the number of reps Clowney gets. Fangio's defense was not great last year but Denver still held opponents to 19.8 PPG, one of 10 teams under 20.0 PPG . Star linebacker Von Miller suffered a serious ankle injury and is out but five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey was traded by Tennessee to Denver in the off season in a salary dump (cleared $11 million in cap space). "It's going to be a little bit more juice," Casey said as his Denver debut approached. Signing Joe Flacco was a big mistake and I wouldn't underestimate Drew Lock. The Broncos went 4-1 with him as a starter, losing only to KC (Super Bowl champs). Denver averaged 26.0 PPG in his four wins. Philip Lindsay ran for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) last season but will be pushed by the acquisition of Melvin Gordon. He's always been overrated as a runner but he's an outstanding pass-catcher and fits well in OC Pat Schurmer's offense. The Broncos are appearing on "Monday Night Football" for an NFL-best 29th consecutive season and I want the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Los Angeles Rams open their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night and their opponents will be Jerry Jones' Dallas Cowboys (Jones knows a little about building a spectacular venue. Obviously, the absence of fans because of the coronavirus pandemic puts a massive asterisk on what should have been a triumphant occasion for the league and two of its most important owners, Jones and LA's Stan Kroenke. The Cowboys come to LA with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) takes over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Sean McVay was 30-years-old when he was hired by the Rams in 2017 at the age of 30, becoming the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. The Rams went 11-5 and earned a wild card berth in his first year and then in 2018. McVay led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, becoming the youngest coach ever to do so and earning him the NFL Coach of the Year award. The Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs. The Cowboys were a disappointing 8-8 last season and FINALLY, Jones gave Garrett the boot. QBB Dak Prescott (4,902 passing yards / 30-11 TD/INT ratio), RB Zeke Elliot (1,357 yards rushing with 12 TDs and 54 catches) and WR Omari Cooper (79 catches / 15.1 YPC / 8 TDs) are Dallas' current version of "The Triplets" (note: Don't tell that to Troy, Emmitt and Michael). Gallup caught 66 passes last season (16.8 YPC and 6 TDs) and joining Cooper and Gallup on the outside is Oklahoma star WR CeeDee Lamb. There is little doubt that the Cowboys have an offense that can match ANY in the league but that was the case last season too, and the team finished 8-8. was one of the NFL's best last season. The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy. Well see. The outlook is far murkier for the Rams, Their roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks. Top to pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton are also gone. QB Jared Goff was drafted 134 picks before Prescott in 2016, but Prescott has passed for more yards (15,778 to 14,219) and TDs (97 to 87) with a higher completion rate (65.8% to 62.4%) and fewer interceptions (36 to 42). However, after McVay's arrival, Goff's played in FOUR playoff games (including A Super Bowl), while Prescott's Cowboys have missed the playoffs TWICE in his four years, winning just ONE postseason game. These teams met in Week 15 last season in Dallas, as the Rams suffered a thorough beatdown, with the Cowboys winning 44-21 and finishing with a 475-289 yard advantage. However, it's notable that Dallas was one-point dog in that contest while here in LA for Week 1, Dallas opened as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys were just 3-5 on the road last season, winning games at Washington, at the NY Giants and at Detroit. Those teams combined for a 10-37-1 (.219) record in 2019. Dallas lost at playoffs teams New I=Orleans, New England and Philly, with the team's 'revered' offense averaging a pathetic 9.3 PPG. BTW...The Cowboys also lost at the Jets and Bears, who were both 7-9. The home dog 'BARKS' in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
My NFL Week 1 Marquee Play is on the NO Saints at 4:25 ET. This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016). Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings -1 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC Central) is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikes to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. He knows a non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable. Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur had quite a 'rookie year' with the Packers in 2019 (first-ever head coaching job), as he led the Packers to a 13-3 record and a spot in the NFC championship game (forgettable 37-20 loss at San Francisco in a contest that was NOT as close as the final score). The Packers beat the Vikings in BOTH 2019 meetings, 21-16 in Week 2 at Green Bay and 23-10 at Minnesota in Week 16. The two NFC Central rivals open their respective 2020 seasons on Sunday in Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th). Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. RB Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019 (1,135 yards with 13 TDs plus 63 catches), despite missing the last two regular season contests. Minnesota loses outstanding WR Stefon Diggs (traded to Buffalo) but Adam Thielen is back healthy and don't forget, he had 91 catches in 2017 and 113 in 2018. Also, expect a big season from TE Kyle Rudolph (39 catches / 6 TDs). Zimmer's 'baby' has been the Minnesota defense but wholesale changes have been made with both DL and DB positions. Cousins was terrific in 2019 BUT was just terrible in his two meetings with Green Bay, as he had his two-lowest passer ratings of the year at 52.9 and 58.8.Let n]me add that Dalvin Cook was not able to play in that Week 16 loss. However, here's the rub. How badly do you think Minnesota wants this game? Consider this. For the first time in the franchise's 60 seasons, the Vikings have their opener scheduled at home against the rival Packers, an immediate opportunity to avenge their decisive defeat at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 23, 2019, that clinched the NFC North for Green Bay (Vikings were held to 7 FDs and 139 yards!). Rodgers is Rodgers but he's just 6-6 in his career at Minnesota plus the Vikings are on a 22-8-1 ATS run as a home favorite. Lay the 'small' number! Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Kansas -3.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -113 | 150 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Kansas at 10:00 ET. Coastal Carolina visited Lawrence last season on Sep 7 (2nd of the season for both schools) with the Chanticleers upsetting the Jayhawks, 12-7 as a seven-point underdog. It was hardly a classic, as neither team gained 300 yards (Coastal outgained Kansas 291-280). Kansas took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on a 41-yard TD run but NEVER scored again. CJ Marable caught a 20-yard TD pass in the second quarter for Coast Carolina (miss PAT) and then added a short TD run midway into the 3rd quarter (failed two-point conversion). Marable finished with 148 rushing and scored both TDs for the Chanticleers. There was no scoring the rest of the way, as Coastal Carolina held on for the five-point win, despite THREE missed FGs by PK Massimo Biscardi. Coastal Carolina was scheduled to host Kansas on Sep 26 of 2020 but COVID-19 has played havoc with the schedules of schools that are playing this season. The two schools kept the meeting but Coastal Carolina has to return to Lawrence again, for this meeting. That HAS to be an advantage for Kansas, which has suffered through a decade of mediocracy fostered by David Beaty, Charlie Weis, and Turner Gill. Les Miles went 112-32 (.778) in 11 full seasons as LSU's head coach (was fired after a 2-2 start in his 12th year), leading the Tigers to 11 bowls and two national championship games (won it all in 2007 but his 13-0 team lost to Alabama in 2011). Miles is tasked with changing the losing culture at Lawrence and said after last year's loss to Coastal Carolina that it was a game the Jayhawks should have won. "I'm not happy," Miles said. "This is not how I saw it going. This is not how our team saw it going. Our guys played with their hearts on their sleeves and did everything they could possibly do to win this game." RB C.J. Marable (1085 YR on 5.3 YPC with 11 TDs / 38 catches with three TDs) will again be the focal point of the Chanticleers' offense plus benefits from four OL returning. Payton and Carpenter both made starts at QB last season and while both return, redshirt freshman McCall may push for a starting job. Coastal Carolina allowed 30.5 PPG (85th) and the defense may not be any better in 2020. Kansas sure has its weaknesses but junior RB Pooka Williams (1,061 YR / 5.3 YPC) is KU's first offensive player to earn 1st-team All-Big 12 status in back-to-back seasons. QB Carter Stanley (24 TDs / 11 INTs) graduated and senior MacVittle (who red-shirted LY) is expected to play. The good news is that the team's top-two receivers return in Parchment (65 catches / 7 TDs) and Robinson (45 catches / 8 TDs).The Kansas D ranked 120th in scoring D (36.1 PPG) and 122nd in total D (475.2 YPG), which is fairly typical of that unit's performance the last decade. Most close to program say that Kansas is probably two recruiting classes away from respectability but "The Hat" knows how to coach and knows more than a little about "revenge games." The Jayhawks will play only 10 games in 2020 and the school's nine-game conference schedule begins in two weeks (Sep 26). A loss here would be a devastating way to open. I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-20 | Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Western Ky at 8:00 ET. Western Ky began the transition to NCAA Division I FBS as an Independents, in 2007 and was considered a reclassifying school for both the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to NCAA rules. Western Ky QB legend Willie Taggart returned to his alma mater as head football coach in 2010. The Hilltoppers went 2-10 in their first year under Taggart but he is credited with getting WKU's football program back on track after posting back to back 7–5 regular seasons in 2011 and 2012. The school wasn't invited to a bowl in 20011 but in 2012 the school's first FBS-level bowl game invite came the Little Caesar's Bowl. Taggart left WKU to accept the head football coach position at South Florida, prior to that bowl contest. Bobby Petrino stayed for one season but then Jeff Brohm posted an outstanding 30–10 record from 2014-16. He left for Purdue and Mike Sanford would last two disappointing seasons. Tyson Helton got the job for 2019 and he won C-USA Coach of the Year (9-4 season, including a bowl win). Louisville has rich FB tradition but after Lamar Jackson left for the NFL, the team flopped to 2-10 in 2018. However, Scott Satterfield left Appalachian St and restored some glory to program, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St..15 starters return, including QB MicaIe Cunningham (2,065 passing yards & 22-5 ratio plus 482 YR / 6 TDs), leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 RY / 5.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and WR Tutu Atwal (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs). The defense HAS to get better, as Louisville allowed 33.4 PPG (109th) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). Western Ky has 16 starters back including NINE from a defense that allowed just 20.1 PPG (22nd) on 335,5 YPG (24th). The unit's top-6 top tacklers are back. RB Gaej Walker is back after gaining 1,208 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs. Starting at QB will be Maryland transfer Tyrell Pigrome (7 career starts). These teams met in Nashville last season, with Louisville winning handily, 38-21. However, Western KY finished the season on an 8-2 run after that loss, including a 23-20 bowl win over Western Michigan. What has me playing on the Hilltoppers here is that they went 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season, giving them a two-year run of 8-1-1 as road underdogs. That's an 89% winning situation. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Navy at 8:00 ET. The 2020 college football season will surely be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its original schedule have decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and has scrambled to patch together a 2020 schedule that at the moment contains just EIGHT games, only two of which were on the school's original schedule (Houston and North Alabama, an FCS school). The first two games on BYU's 2020 schedule are contests against two of the nation's three service academies. The Cougars open Labor Day evening at Navy and play their second game Sep 16 at Army. BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. Would BYU 'take back' that contract extension if it could? Navy's Ken Niumatalolo took over for Paul Johnson back in 2008 and has led the Midshipmen to 10 winning seasons (and bowls) in his 12 years at the school. However, he and Navy entered the 2019 season off a brutal 3-10 year in 2018. The school's losing streak didn't last long, as the Midshipmen authored one of the finest single-season turnarounds in FBS history by going from 3-10 to 11-2, after beating Kansas St 20-17 (OT) in the Liberty Bowl. Navy's Malcolm Perry set a FBS record for rushing yards by a QB with 2,017, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring 21 rushing TDs. Navy led the nation with 360.5 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC while scoring 52 rushing TDs. Perry is gone but senior Dalen Morris takes over triple-option and had a strong preseason camp after appearing briefly in four games over the past two seasons. Navy returns its top-three RBs, including FB Jamlae Carothers (734 yards on 6.6 YPC and 14 TDs) and will once again feature a 'deep' group of RBs. Defensively, Navy was greatly improved last season, as after allowing 33.5 PPG on 426 YPG in 2018, the team allowed just 22.3 PPG last season (skewered by allowing 52 in a loss at Notre Dame) on 314 YPG (ranked 16th among FBS schools). Getting back to BYU, the Cougars dealt with numerous injuries to last season's offense, including to starting QB Zach Wilson. Wilson was recovering from shoulder surgery early in the 2019 season but is healthy and set to go. All five OL starters return but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019 (team averaged just 159.1 YPG on the ground). Three standout WRs all graduated. but the good news is that TE Mark Bushman decided to return for his senior year. He had 44 catches last season with four TDs (has 125 catches in his career). BYU's defense allowed a credible 25.5 PPG last season and will return seven starters. BYU's 'patchwork' 2020 schedule opens this cross-country trip to Annapolis and the game was not announced until August 6th, the Cougars have not had a lot of time to prep for Navy’s triple option. As MTSU learned on Saturday at Army, that can be 'deadly!' Now BYU is a MUCH better team than MTSU but also, Navy is a MUCH better team than Army. no 42-0 blowout here but at this 'price,' Navy is my Game of the Week! Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 93 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF 2020 Opener is on Army at 1:30 ET. Middle Tenn St was expected to open its season Sep 5 at Duke, coming off a 4-8 season. 2019 was an aberration for the Blue Raiders, as MTSU had been bowl-eligible in NINE of the last 10 seasons. However, in the era of COVID-19, plans tend to change more often than not. The Blue Raiders will instead open their 2020 season by traveling to West Point to take on the Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Army is coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-8 season in 2019 (more later) but talk about changing plans! Of the first SEVEN schools on Army's original 2020 schedule (from Sep 4 through Oct 24) the Black Knights won't play a SINGLE one. The biggest 'loss' being Oklahoma's first visit to Michie Stadium (on Sep 26) since 1946 being canceled. And so it goes. Army does have a 12-game season scheduled, beginning with a first-ever meeting with MTSU. MTSU's Rick Stockstill enters his 15the season in Murfreesboro and he's led the Blue Raiders to EIGHT bowl games, although the school has gone just 2-6 SU and ATS. QB Asher O’Hara was an adequate passer last season (62.7% / 2,616 YP / 20-8 ratio) and he was also MTSU's best runner. He gained 1,00 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC while scoring nine TDs. The problem was, NO other RB reached 300 yards rushing. MTSU added two Power-5 transfers at the RB position but both opted out. Defense has never been a MTSU strength and after allowing 29.9 PPG last season, maybe it's a good thing that only THREE starters return. Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, left the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, much like MTSU, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season. Army has 13 starters back, including SEVEN from a defense that allowed 23.0 PPG on 342.0 YPG. Starting QB Hopkins is gone but both Jabari Lewis and Christian Anderson made starts last year. Lewis is the likely starter, after making five starts. Army's rushing attack averaged 297.2 YPG last season on 5.2 YPC and should give the MTSU defense fits, as Stockstill's "D" hasn’t faced the option since a 24-6 loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl (note" Navy ran for 366 yards on 5.5 YPC). Making matters worse, this trip to West Points wasn’t added to MTSU's schedule until August 10. With COVID-19 limiting all teams prep time last spring and this summer, properly preparing for the option seems like 'a bridge too far.' Don't forget, MTSU went 0-6 SU on the road last season, losing on average by 16.8 PPG. I'm expecting a COMFORTABLE Army win. Good luck...Larry |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 272 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month (Super Bowl LIV) is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.
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01-19-20 | Packers +9 v. 49ers | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -130 | 104 h 8 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 154 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Clemson at 8:00 ET.
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers -6 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 127 h 16 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature' LEGEND Play is on the SF 49ers at 4:35 ET.
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans -1 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 85 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 4:35 ET.
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss +7 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Jan Game of the Month is on Sou Miss at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Cincinnati at 3:00 ET.
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon +3 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Rose Bowl play is on Oregon at 5:00 ET.
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Va Tech at 12::00 ET.
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Western Kentucky at 12:30 ET.
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Battle 4 NFC West is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET. The NFC West title is on the line when the first-place San Francisco 49ers (12-3) visit the second-place Seattle Seahawks (11-4) on Sunday night. The 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a victory but a Seattle win would give the Seahawks the division title as they won the first meeting with the 49ers. That first meeting was a Week 10 MNF "classic," in which the Seahawks won 30-27 in OT (FYI...I had Seattle as my Nov Game of the Month!). The stakes are clearly high, as the 49ers will either be the NFC's top-seed (getting home field all the way and earning a bye next weekend), or they will be the No. 5 seed, which would mean a road game next weekend at the NFC East winner (Dallas of Philly). Meanwhile, a season sweep would assure Seattle of at least the No. 3 seed, avoiding a road game next weekend vs that NFC East winner. Jimmy Garoppolo has gained his "rep" by producing a 20-5 record as an NFL starter, not by putting up 'monster' passing stats. However, he has thrown 27 TD passes against just 13 INTs this season, while throwing for 3,693 yards. If he can throw for 307 yards against Seattle, he would to join Jeff Garcia (franchise-record 4,278) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (two 4,000-yard campaigns) as the only San Francisco QBs to reach 4,000 yards in a single season. San Francisco is averaging 30.2 PPG (2nd-most) and Jimmy G has had lots of help from his running game this season,as three RBs have battled injuries to rush for between 533 and 715 yards. As a team, only the Ravens (Lamar and Mark) have run for more YPG than San Francisco's 145.1. San Francisco's WRs are nothing more than average (kudos to Jimmy G for making due), although TE Kittle (78 catches) is one of the best in the business. San Francisco's defense has fell off lately (more in a bit) but it enters this final game of the regular season allowing 277.4 YPG (2nd) and 19.3 PPG (8th). Seattle QB Russell Wilson was a strong contender for MVP honors for most of the season but Lamar Jackson's play has left all contenders "in the dust." That said, Wilson has thrown for 3,877 yards with 29 TDs and just five INTs, while rushing for 313 yards with three more TDs. For most of the season, he's been buoyed by an excellent rushing attack, led by Chris Carson (1,230 / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs). However, Seattle's RB situation is a mess after starter Carson (hip) and reserve C.J. Prosise (arm) were hurt last week to join main backup Rashaad Penny (knee) on the injured list. Seattle signed two former team members in Marshawn Lynch (2010-15) and Robert Turbin (2012-14) to support new starter Travis Homer. I guess Curt Warner was NOT available! Seattle's defense no longer bears the moniker "Legion of Boom," as the unit is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) on 380.5 YPG (26th). OK, so what's the play, you ask? Yes, Seattle is banged up but let's go back and take a look at that "dominant" San Francisco defense. After allowing only 11 points per game the first seven contests, the Niners have given up 26.5 points PPG over their last eight contests (that's the NINTH-worst total in the league during that span!). Feeling a little better about my Seattle pick? How about trying this stat on? First, let me note that Seattle's home field is one of the loudest in the NFL and Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting in it for the first time, as he missed last season's visit because of a torn ACL. How have the 49ers fared in the Great Pacific Northwest? Not so well. The 49ers have lost EIGHT straight visits to Seattle, including the 2013 NFC Championship Game! Seattle gets to stay home next week with a win and would earn the No. 2 seed if the Packers lose (earning a bye) and the No. 1 seed if the Saints lose, as well (hardly likely). As for the 49ers, I expect them to lose, which means they are off to Dallas or Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-19 | Raiders v. Broncos -3 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -120 | 82 h 0 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC West) is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.
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12-29-19 | Eagles v. Giants +4.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Shocker is on the NY Giants at 4:25 ET.
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 292 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET.
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12-28-19 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 9-33 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener (Camping World) is on Iowa St at 12:00 ET.
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa -2 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Holiday Bowl Blowout is on Iowa at 8:00 ET.
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12-27-19 | North Carolina -4.5 v. Temple | Top | 55-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener is on North Carolina at 12:00 ET.
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | Top | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 380 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on La Tech at 4:00 ET.
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -4 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -116 | 155 h 33 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 0 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Battle 4 NFC East is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.
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12-21-19 | Florida International v. Arkansas State -2.5 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 5:30 ET.
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12-21-19 | Bills v. Patriots -6 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 99 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC East) is on the NE Patriots at 4:30 ET.
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12-21-19 | Texans -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.
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12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints -9 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Madness Play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.
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12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers -1.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.
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12-15-19 | Rams v. Cowboys +2 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 59 h 6 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.
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12-15-19 | Vikings -1 v. Chargers | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.
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12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2 | Top | 48-46 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 45 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* SEC Championship Game Showdown is on Georgia at 4:00 ET.
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12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic -8 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Championship Saturday Game of the Month is on FAU at 1:30 ET.
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET. The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019). The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best). MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2! I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However, Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much! One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home. Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" |
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12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17. The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010. Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd). There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0% for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games). DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th. Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!" Good luck...Larry |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts -1 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.
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11-30-19 | Tulane v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.
Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET. Wisconsin opened the 2019 season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll. The Badgers won their first six games by outscoring their opponents by an amazing 255-29 margin. However, Wisconsin visited Illinois on Oct 19 and as a four-TD road favorite got beat 24-23. The Badgers then lost at Ohio St 38-7 the following Saturday, leaving the team's hope of winning the Big Ten West bleak. The reason being that Minnesota, coming off a a 7-6 season, got off to a blazing start. PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 and his Golden Gophers would win their first NINE games of 2019, the school's first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in the Nov 10 AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus rose to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. However, the Badgers lost a tough one 23-19 at Iowa on Nov 17. Minnesota bounced back with a 38-22 win at Northwestern last Saturday but with Wisconsin winning THREE in a row, the Badgers come to Minneapolis 6-2, one game behind the 7-1 Gophers " I don't think you could write a better story at least from a college football world perspective," P.J. Fleck told reporters. "College Gameday, the Twin Cities and Big Ten championship on the line in the longest-standing rivalry in college football."Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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11-30-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.
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11-29-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis -11.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 55 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss +3 v. Mississippi State | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.
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11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots -6 | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -117 | 105 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.
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11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"
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11-23-19 | California +3 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET. California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West. Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” Good luck...Larry |
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11-23-19 | UCLA +13.5 v. USC | Top | 35-52 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | SMU v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 42 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET. It's been quite a year for the American Athletic Conference in 2019, as in both the Nov 3 and Nov 10 AP polls, the league had FOUR schools represented in the top-25. Three of those schools remain in the most recent AP poll (Nov 17) entering Saturday games. Cincy checks in at No. 17, Memphis at No. 18 and SMU at No. 21 (all are 9-1). The AAC school that dropped out this past Sunday was Navy, which was manhandled 52-20 last Saturday at Notre Dame. The good news for 7-2 Navy (5-1 AAC-West) is that it has a chance to quickly bounce-back from that crushing loss, as it hosts SMU on Saturday. 9-1 SMU (5-1 AAC-West) squandered a chance to take command of the AAC West when it lost 54-48 at Memphis on Nov 2 (Memphis is 5-1 in the West, like Navy and SMU). The Mustangs survived 59-51 at home over ECU on Nov 9, keeping its chances of advancing to the AAC championship game intact and had last weekend off, giving them an extra week of prep time. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. QB Shane Buechele (Texas transfer) has thrown for 3,195 yards with 28 TDs against eight interceptions this season. WR James Proche, named a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist as the nation's top wide receiver, established season highs with 14 catches for 167 yards and two scores against the Pirates to extend his touchdown streak to nine games and eclipse 1,000 yards for the second straight year (he has 88 catches and 12 TDs on the season). While SMU's passing game gets most of the credit for the team's 45.1 PPG average (6th), RB Xavier Jones has rushed for 1,063 yards (5.4 YPA) and 18 of his school-record 20 TDs have come on the ground (note: he has scored in every game!). Of concern for SMU is its defense, which is allowing 32.7 PPG (104th). More on SMU's D in a bit. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and he led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expected a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and it has "backed me up" by going 7-2. Navy entered its game at Notre Dame last Saturday at 7-1 and ranked 21st but the Midshipmen got 'rolled' (see above). Navy was averaging a nation-best 357.9 yards rushing but was limited to 281 against Notre Dame. That included 117 by QB Malcolm Perry (his sixth straight game reaching the century mark) but Perry fumbled three times and was replaced in the third quarter. One of the biggest turnarounds for Navy this season has been a defense that was allowing 310.6 YPG on the season, before yielding nearly that many in the first half last week (Navy allowed 410 for the game). However, even after that poor effort, Navy enters this contest still No. 1 in rushing ( 349.7 YPG / 5.9 YPA) and averaging 37.9 PPG (13th). The Navy D comes in allowing a modest 21.9 PPG (34th) on 321.9 YPG (22nd). Here's the situation facing BOTH teams. There's a three-way tie for first in the AAC-West but like SMU, Navy has also lost to Memphis. The bottom line is, this is basically an elimination game for both schools, if they want to keep their West Division and conference title hopes alive. What Sonny Dykes has accomplished at SMU is impressive but how can one trust SMU on the road vs a quality team like Navy (note: Midshipmen are 5-0 SU at home this season, averaging 39.4 PPG)? Look at SMU's last five games. Except for an impressive 45-21 home blowout over Temple on Oct 19, SMU has allowed 37, 31, 54 and 51 points. Yes, SMU lost just ONE of those games but that was to Memphis, when the Mustangs allowed 514 yards and the six-point margin was aided by two 4th Q TDs (and a two-point conversion), after SMU had fallen behind by 21 points. The three wins in that stretch came 43-37 at home over Tulsa in three OTs (Tulsa ran up 500 yards). SMU allowed 510 yards at Houston in a 34-31 win and then allowed a WHOPPING 644 yards in its 59-51 win at home over ECU, as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Let me remind all that Tulsa , Houston and ECU are each 3-7 on the season, while going a combined 2-16 in AAC games.I STRONGLY believe Navy is the superior team and will prevail here comfortably, putting the Notre Dame 'disaster' in the rear-view mirror. Good luck..Larry |
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11-23-19 | Central Florida v. Tulane +6 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET. Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak. Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th). There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th). The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season. Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:15 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West with a 12-4 record in 2018 behind a MVP performance by QB Patrick Mahomes. KC then opened 2019 win FOUR straight wins, averaging 33.8 PPG with Mahomes averaging 377.5 YPG passing with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, the Colts and Texans then 'solved' Mahomes to some extent, handing KC back-to-back losses. KC visited Denver for a Thursday game to kick off Week 7 and while the Chiefs won 30-6, Mahomes suffered a dislocated right kneecap. Moore filled in admirably for Mahomes the next two games, with KC losing a hard-fought game to Green Bay but then edged the Vikings, 26-23. Mahomes didn't miss a beat in his return from that two-game absence, completing a career-high 36 passes for 446 yards and three TDs but Kansas City lost 35-32 at Tennessee. The Chiefs' once sizable advantage in the AFC West is now gone, following losses in FOUR of their last six games. The 6-4 Chiefs look to stem the tide on Monday night when they travel to Mexico City to face the Los Angeles Chargers, tied with the 6-4 Oakland Raiders for first-place in the division. The 4-6 LA Chargers saw their two-game "mini" winning streak end in Week 10, losing 26-24 at Oakland. Philip Rivers entered Week 11 leading the league in passing yards (2,816) but was also third in interceptions (10). He had three in LA's last game against Oakland, including a "pick-6" that loomed large in that 26-24 loss. The Chargers were among the league's better teams in not committing turnovers the last two seasons but they have 16 giveaways this season and their TO ratio of minus-6 is better than only FIVE teams. More notably, FIVE of their turnovers have occurred in goal-to-go situations! Last year's game between the Chiefs and Rams was relocated to Los Angeles less than a week before the game when the field at Mexico City's Azteca Stadium was deemed unplayable because of rain and the stadium having hosted concerts less than a month before the game. Both coaches said they have received favorable updates about the turf going into the game. The Chargers have spent the week at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs to get acclimated to the altitude, while the Chiefs have kept their same routine. Mahomes enters this game with no health issues and KC has to be thrilled with the play of WR Tyreek Hill. He become the first player in franchise history to record at least 140 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games, as he followed up his 140-yard effort in a 26-23 win over Minnesota on Nov 3 (with Moore at QB) with a career-best 11 catches for 157 yards and one TD against the Titans (Mahomes was back at QB for that one). RB Damien Williams had a season-high 24 touches resulting in 109 scrimmage yards (77 rushing, 32 receiving) against Tennessee. His backfield partner McCoy could use more work, as he's averaging 5.2 YPA but has a modest 72 carries on the season. Mahomes has a deep group of receivers, as besides Hill, there is TE Klece (56 catches), Watkins (40 catches despite missing two games) plus Hardman and Robinson. The KC defense is allowing 148.1 YPG on the ground (30th) and 23.9 PPG on the season (20th). Sure Rivers is on pace for another 4,000-yard season (maybe 4,500 yards?) but the running game has given him little support all season (86.1 YPG ranks 25th) and the Chargers come in averaging a very modest 20.7 PPG (21st). Melvin Gordon did rush for a season-high 108 yards in the loss at Oakland but he's still averaging just 3.5 YPA and I'm not even a little convinced he's back to being the player we saw from 2016-18. The D is good though, allowing 19.4 PPG (6th) on 318.3 YPG (5th). This is a HUGE game for KC, as the Chirefs have a bye in Week 12 and then in Week 13, will host the Raiders. The Raiders are at the Jets this coming Sunday, so could very well move to 7-4, meaning if KC doesn't win here, the Chiefs could be a game back of the Raiders in that Week 13 contest. Mahomes had little troiuble against LA's defense last season, passing for six TDs and zero INTs, posting QB ratings of 127.5 and 110.3. Yes, the Chargers did beat the Chiefs 29-28 in a Week 15 contest but that win eended a NINE-game losing streak for the Chargers against the Chiefs. "Series form" returns here, as KC gets the win AND cover! Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West for the second straight year in 2018 and went on to play New England in the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears rode the NFL's best defense (in terms of points allowed) in 2018 to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Both teams entered 2019 with expectations that they would defend their respective division titles. However, as the Bears come to LA Memorial Coliseum to take on the Rams in Week 11, they sit at 4-5 in their division, well behind 8-2 Green Bay and 7-3 Minnesota. As for the 5-4 Rams, they are looking up at 8-1 San Francisco and 8-2 Seattle in the NFC West. There is NOTHING wrong with Chicago's defense, as the Bears are allowing 17.4 PPG (4th), which is actually slightly better than the team's NFL-leading 17.7 average in 2018. However, Chicago's QB play has generally stunk (that's a highly technical NFL insider term!) and its running game also sucks (another highly sophisticated one). Trubisky is coming off a three-TD game in last week's 20-13 win over Detroit (one which snapped a four-game losing streak) but he has just eight TD passes in his eight games (he's missed two due to injury). A closer look reveals he has not thrown a TD pass in FIVE of his eight starts in 2019, accounting for his eight TD throws in last week's game with Detroit, a two-TD effort in a Week 7 loss at New Orleans and a three-TD game in the team's MNF Week 3 win at Washington. As for the running game, the Bears are averaging 80.6 YPG (28th) on a woeful 3.5 YPA. What's more, just as rookie David Montgomery appeared to have found his stride by rolling up 235 yards and three TDs over his last three games, after totaling 231 and two TDs in his previous six, an ankle injury in practice is raising doubts about his availability for this contest. If Monty doesn't play, here's the situation. No other Chicago player has as much as 100 rushing yards on the season. Sean McVay has been labeled a "boy genius" for leading the Rams to back-to-back division crowns in his first two seasons at the helm, which included a Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. However, the Rams' once-high octane offense has gone missing since prior to last season's Super Bowl appearance, with QB Jared Goff taking large steps backward behind an offensive line that has been ravaged by injury. McVay himself realizes there's a strong argument to be made that the Bears ended the Rams' two seasons of offensive brilliance with their 15-6 victory at Soldier Field last season in Week 14. LA was 11-1 but Chicago reduced McVay's offense to a shadow of its usual self. RB Todd Gurley produced only 28 yards rushing, Goff went 20 of 44 for 180 yards, and the Rams managed only 214 yards, less than half of their season average. The current Rams' offense continues to be a shadow of its former self, averaging 25.1 PPG (10th) on 375.8 YPF (12th), after an inept performance at Pittsburgh last Sunday in which it scored only THREE of the team's 12 points. OK, so why am I on the Rams? I go back to those technical terms regarding Trubisky (he stinks) and the state of Chicago's running game (it sucks). Chicago dominated the Rams in that Week 14 contest in Chicago, benefiting from the weather conditions of a chilly, biting night last December. The weather report for Sunday is sunny and in the mid-80s and don't forget that this is a 5:20 local time start (FB conditions will be perfect). This is a make-or-break game for LA, as while it plays Arizona twice in its final six games after this one, it also faces Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco. A loss here and LA can basically 'cancel' the rest of the 2019 season. Expect the Rams to 'show some life' against a VERY mediocre (I'm being nice here) Chicago team. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Patriots -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. 2019 has not been a "vintage Brady season," as the six-0timer Super Bowl-winner owns a modest 14-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and a 93.1 QB rating. The Pats' running game offers little support, as Michel leads the team with 482 yards (just 3.3 YPA), with no other player rushing for as much as 150 yards (Pats rank 23rd in rushing at 92.9 YPG). The good news coming out of the Baltimore loss was the fact the Brady established a rapport with recent acquisition Mohamed Sanu, as the WR hauled in 10 receptions for 81 yards and a score in just his second game with the team. New England's defense enters Sunday No. 1 in both points allowed (10.9 PPG) and total D (249.3 YPG) but the loss to the Ravens sure gives pause to the possibility that the Pats' D just may not be as dominant as once thought. Philadelphia had absorbed lopsided road losses at Minnesota and Dallas before rebounding with an impressive 31-13 victory in Buffalo and a 22-14 win over Chicago. Conventional wisdom says Carson Wentz is having an "off year" but he has 11 TDs vs just two two INTs over his last seven games and has thrown a TD pass in 12 straight games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. That said, WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle) did not practice for a second straight game (he's expected to miss) and fellow WR DeSean Jackson was placed on injured reserve. The Eagles may need to lean more on the RB tandem of Jordan Howard (525 yards on 4.4 YPA with 6 TDs) and rookie Miles Sanders (336 yards on 4.4 YPA) but Howard is listed as questionable with a stinger. Philadelphia's defense is getting healthier but its still ranks just 19th in allowing 23.7 YPG. Here's the bottom line. The Pats come into this contest as the MUCH healthier team plus are coming off a loss. FYI...The Pats are a remarkable 41-16 ATS (that's 72%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. If that's not enough, the Pats are returning to the field off a loss (and a bye), to face the team that beat them 41-33 in Super Bowl LII (February 2018). It's not too often that the New England has failed to come out on top in a high-profile match but one of the most noteworthy examples in recent memory was the above-mentioned Super Bowl loss. Tom Brady has acknowledged there was a lot of "mental scar tissue" from the 41-33 loss to Philadelphia. "They deserved it that year and now a couple years later we get a chance to play the organization again," Brady said. "We’ve had a lot changes. They’ve had a lot of changes. It’s totally different circumstances. Huge game for us. Big game for them. The better team is going to win." Isn't New England the better team? That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers -4 | Top | 29-3 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET. The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7. Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history. Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th). Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State. Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs). The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st). Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2). Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Minnesota v. Iowa -3 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016, completing an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season. Minnesota's 31-26 win at home last Saturday over previously unbeaten Penn St gave the Gophers to their first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in last Sunday's AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus jumped from No. 17 to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. 6-0 Minnesota leads 4-2 Wisconsin by TWO games in the Big Ten West and can take a big step towards their first Big Ten West Division title by winning in Iowa City on Saturday against 6-3 Iowa (3-3 in Big Ten). Iowa's hopes of winning the West Division are on 'life support' after dropping a 24-22 decision last Saturday at Wisconsin, missing a chance to tie the game on a two-point conversion try late in the fourth quarter. The Hawkeyes are THREE games behind the Golden Gophers with three contests remaining. P.J. Fleck 'surfed' the locker room after what non-believers would call an upset over Penn State last week, then asked his players to grab a hand. "Whatever you believe in, whoever you believe in, this is what sport does, bring so many people together," Fleck told the group after his 18-second ride. There is NO doubt he's a motivator! QB Tanner Morgan had one of the best games of his career against the Nittany Lions, completing 18-of-20 passes for 339 yards and three TDs, improving to 13-2 as the starting QB. He's completing 67.9% on the season with 21 TDs and just four INTs. He has two quality targets in Johnson (50 catches / 14.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and Bateman (38 catches / 22.3 YPC / 7 TDs) plus RB Smith leads a running game averaging 195.2 YPG (38th) with 940 yards on 5.5 YPA with 7 TDs. Minnesota is averaging 37.6 PPG (15th), while allowing 20.7 PPG (27th). It's been a "close but no cigar" season for Iowa in this year's Big Ten, as the Hawkeyes have lost THREE games all against ranked teams. Iowa lost 10-3 at then-No. 18 Michigan, 17-12 at home to then-No. 10 Penn St and 24-22 just last Saturday at then-No. 13 Wisconsin. QB Nate Stanley (60.7% with 12 TDs and 5 INTs) threw for 208 yards and two TDs in the loss to Wisconsin, overtaking Ricky Stanzi (7,377) for third place on the program's all-time passing yards list with 7,509. He leads an offense that averages just 24.1 YPG (98th) and one which can't match Minnesota's skill players at RB or receiver. However, Iowa's defense is allowing only 11.7 PPG (4th) on 289.3 YPG (11th). I like Fleck but this is not Kirk Ferentz's first 'rodeo.' He's in his 21st year at Iowa and after going 4-19 in 1999 and 2000, he's led the Hawkeyes to 16 bowls in 18 seasons (make that 17 of 19, here in 2019). I called Minnesota's upset against Penn St last Saturday but let's look closer at its entire "body of work." Here's Minnesota's first four games. It opened with a 28-21 home win over SD St, which averages just 20.8 PPG. Minnesota needed OT to win at Fresno St 38-35 (Bulldogs are a 4-5 team) plus beat Ga Southern only 35-32 as a 17-point favorite. Minnesota then won 38-31 at Purdue (Boilermakers are just 4-6 in 2019). Yes, Minnesota comes into this contest having outscored its last five conference opponents 199-67 but note that Penn St almost 'caught' Minnesota late in last Saturday's game, with the Minnesota D allowing 518 yards. How did Penn St's offense fair at Iowa vs the Hawkeyes? The Nittany Lions scored just 17 points (they average 37.1 PPG) and gained only 294 yards (they average 434.8 YPG). Iowa has won FOUR straight vs Minnesota and note that THREE of those wins came over bowl-bound Minnesota teams. Minnesota has won 11 consecutive games (tied for the third-longest streak in the nation with Baylor) but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has captured EIGHT straight Floyd of Rosedale trophies at Kinnick Stadium! Make that NINE in a row! Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Tulane v. Temple +6 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch). Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF. Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards. A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here! Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore. Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st). Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions. I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!' Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -2 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET. The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season. Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019. Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th). Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th). The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 126 h 11 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Nov Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET. Who'da thunk it? Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but here in 2019, when the Ravens knocked off the Pats in Week 9's SNF game, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team. The 49ers have some extra rest (played the Thursday night game in Week 9) and they'll need every edge they can get, as Russell Wilson (leading MVPcandidiate?) leads the Seattle Seahawks into Levi's Stadium. Seattle is 7-2 and win would leave them just a half-game back of San Francisco in the NFC West. This once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade but with the departure of Harbaugh, most of the steam came out of the rivalry. In fact, this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014, where both teams have a winning record. No QB is playing better than Russell Wilson, who has a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a passer rating of 102 or higher in eight of nine games. He's completing 68.3% for 2,505 yards and his QB rating of 118.2 is tops in the league. Tyler Lockett (team-high 59 catches and six TDs) has developed into Wilson's top target but note that rookie DK Metcalf is a star in the making, with 29 catches (18.1 YPC) with five TDs. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but the team checks in averaging 131.7 YPG on the ground this season (7th). However, RB Carson is coming on strong. After totaling only 158 yards in Seattle's first three games, he's had 100-plus in FOUR of his last six (764 yards on the season). Seattle is a legitimate NFC title contender but its "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past, as the Seahawks are allowing 25.6 PPG (22nd) on 380.8 YPG (25th). While QB Jimmy Garoppolo takes up a lot of 'oxygen' (more in a bit), one HAS to start with San Francisco's defense. The 49ers rank first in total D (24.10 YPG) and second in scoring D (12.8 PPG). However, the 49ers suffered a big loss last week when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. "Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him," starting MLB Fred Warner said. "He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart." Getting back to Garoppolo, he threw for a personal-best four TDs and eclipsed 300 yards (317) for the third time in his career in San Francisco's 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct 31. He's completing 70.3% of his passes but even with that four-TD effort, his ratio on the season is 13-7 (not 22-1 like Wilson). Garoppolo's 'LEGEND' is based on his record as a starter (16-2, including 14-2 with the 49ers). He's greatly helped by the NFL's second-best rushing attack (171.1 YPG), led by Matt Beida (524 yards on 5.3 YPA) plus supported by Coleman (355) and Mostert (307). Seattle had won 10 straight in the series before a 26-23 (OT) loss at Levi’s in Week 15 of 2018. However, as noted above, San Francisco was in a "rebuilding mode" in that stretch. What has me 'loving' Seattle is this spot is Seattle going 4-0 SU on the road in 2019 and covering SIX in a row as an underdog going back to early in the 2018 season. I called Baltimore's upset in Week 9 over the Pats and predict it will be "deja vu all over again" here in Week 10, with Seattle handing San Francisco its first loss of 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). However, the Vikings lost a close one last Sunday at KC 26-23, despite the Chiefs playing without Pat Mahomes. The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG but the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest and after a bye week, a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants in a MNF Week 9 contest. The Cowboys now play a THIRD straight primetime game, as they welcome the Vikings to Arlington on Sunday night in Week 10. The Vikings got a nice break last week when the Chargers upset the Packers, so Minnesota remains just one game back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. He's completing 68.8% for 2,217 yards with 16 TDs and three INTs on the season (112.0 QB rating) but while hew threw fthree TDs last Sunday, he has still not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He fell to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two FGs in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Some bad news comes in the fact that WR Adam Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and will not play. RB Dalvin Cook has run for an NFL-leading 894 yards (5.1 YPA / 9 TDs) and may get more work. Minnesota's D has been very good, allowing 17.6 PPG (4th) on 320.9 YPG (8th). Dak Prescott is having an excellent season, averaging 297.5 YPG passing and completing 69.6 percent of his passes (both would be career highs). He leads an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 YPG, although Dallas is averaging 28.4 PPG (just 5th-best). WR Amari Cooper (42 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. We can also expect Dallas to lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott (741 yards on 4.7 YPA with six TDs), as he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys' D hasn't gotten enough credit, as it is allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 318.1 YPG (6th). Here's the bottom line. Minnesota fell back into some bad habits at KC, as Kirk Cousins was again subject to the sort of pressure that often gets him rattled. The Vikings rarely played from behind their four-game winning streak but Cousins is now 0-10-1 SU in his career with Minnesota when trailing in the fourth quarter. Adding 'insult to injury,' Minnesota enters this contest winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record. One more thing, Prescott, is 4-0 head-to-head against Cousins! Good luck..Larry |
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11-10-19 | Ravens v. Bengals +10.5 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -135 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Baltimore Ravens have been the 'kings' of the preseason (have won 17 straight!) but since winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Baltimore has missed the playoffs in FOUR of the last six seasons. However, the 2019 Ravens are winners of FOUR in a row, after handing the Patriots their first loss of the season last Sunday night. Baltimore's convincing 37-20 victory over the Patriots leaves them 6-2 in the AFC North but more importantly, the victory could be the kind of signature win to propel the team to greater heights. Baltimore heads to Cincinnati this Sunday to take on the 0-8 Bengals, the NFL's only remaining winless team. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and decided to pull the plug on longtime starting QB Andy Dalton. Fourth-round draft choice Ryan Finley (NC St) will be making his first NFL start. Many teams questioned whether Heisman-winner Lama Jackson had "the goods" to become an NFL starter but few (if any) have ny doubts now. Jackson has turned the Ravens into an offensive juggernaut that leads the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. Baltimore is also first in rushing with 204.9 YPG (5.5 YPA) and second in total offense (427.0 YPG). Jackson is completing 64.3% for 1,813 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs, plus leads the team with 637 rushing yards (6.4 YPA and 5 TDs). Another former Heisman-winner, RB Mark Ingram, has 585 rushing yards, while averaging 5.1 YPA and leads the team with seven rushing TDs. Baltimore's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era but with its "new and improved" offense, allowing 22.0 PPG (16th) on 348.8 YPG (15th) is good enough. The Bengals out-played the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle (429 yards to 232) but lost 21-20. It's been all downhill since, as the Bengals have gone 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS and now will turn the starting QB duties over to Finley, who has never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. Cincinnati's offense ranks 29th in scoring (15.5 PPG) and 25th in total offense (317.9 YPG) plus the team's turnover margin of minus-9 isn't helping a defense ranks last in yardage allowed (435.8 YPG) and 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). The good news? How can it get worse? No Dalton at QB just may be a good thing. "I think I'm ready for it," Finley told reporters. "I'm confident in my ability to play, and I'm confident in this team's ability to bounce back and get some wins." So why play Cincy? Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its nine division games since the beginning of last season (that's an 89% "go-against) and believe it or not, Cincinnati has won SIX of the last seven times it has hosted Baltimore. Baltimore is 'ripe' for a letdown after its Sunday night domination of the Pats and enters this game on an abysmal 2-12 ATS run when favored (an 86% "go-against), going back to Week 7 of last season.. Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-19 | Lions v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET. The 3-4-1 Detroit Lions and the 3-5 Chicago Bears meet Sunday at Soldier Field and while neither team looks "playoff-bound" (or playoff-worthy), the loser of this contest can pretty much start preparing for the 2020 draft and season. The Lions lost 31-24 at Oakland last Sunday, falling to 1-4 in their last five games. QB Matthew Stafford passed for 406 yards and three TDs but failed to connect on a fourth-down attempt in the waning moments. As for the Bears, they went three-and-out on their first five possessions and managed a meager nine total yards of offense in the first half at Philly, falling behind 19-0 in a 22-14 loss, the team's FOURTH in a row. Stafford will take the field today for his 150th career game and his numbers look good again in 2019. He's completing 64.3 percent and ranks second in TD passes (19), fourth in yards (2,499) and fifth in QB rating (106.0). He has thrown for more than 300 yards, and three-plus TDs (with just one INT / has five on the season in 291 attempts) in each of the last three games, but the Lions are just 1-2 in that span (more on that, later). Then again, he gets almost no help from a running game averaging just 96.0 YPG (21st) and Detroit's defense ranks among the worst in the NFL, allowing 424.1 YPG (31st) and 27.1 PPG (27th). The Bears won the NFC Central last season with a 12-4 record, led by a defense that ranked first in points allowed (17.7 per) and third in total defense (299.7 YPG). However, Chicago's postseason ended with Cody Parkey's double-doink FG misfire in a 16-15 home loss to the Eagles. Chicago's defense remains solid, allowing 18.0 PPG (6th) on 323.6 YPG (9th) but the team's offense has been a HUGE problem.The Bears are averaging 17.8 PPG (27th) on 266.8 YPG (29th). Most of the blame is falling on the shoulders of QB quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who is averaging 180.4 YPG passing (Stafford is averaging 312) with five TDs and three INTs for a QB rating of 80.0. Trubisky has gone so far as to publicly request that televisions are turned off inside Halas Hall in a bid to shield the sputtering team from outside criticism. Some good news on offense is that rookie RB David Montgomery appears to have overcome a slow start and is headed in the right direction after rushing for his first multi-TD performance of his career at Philly last Sunday (he ran for 135 yards the week before in a one-point loss to the Chargers). As noted above, Stafford had a HUGE game at Oakland last Sunday but in the end, failed to convert. His pass to Logan Thomas from the one-yard-line was broken up in the end zone with three seconds remaining. And so it goes...Stafford had a breakout season in 2011 (5,038 yards) and followed with SIX straight seasons of better than 4,000 yards, before falling short with 3,777 in 2018. He's averaging 312 YPG in 2019, putting on pace to challenge 5,000 passing yards again. However, the Lions are 1-4 after a 2-0-1 start. So what else is new? For all of Stafford's 'pretty' numbers (and HUGE contract), his record as a starting QB sits at 69-79-1. The Bears won both meetings last season, 23-16 at Detroit, and then 34-22 at home. Stafford threw FOUR 'picks' in the two contests and note that while Trubisky missed the win in Detroit because of an injury, he threw for a career-high 355 yards (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in that 34-22 home win. Chicago snaps its four-game losing skid here. Good luck.,..Larry |
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11-09-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -1 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET. Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. The Vols opened 1-4 (lone win 45-0 over Chattanooga) but visit long-time rival Kentucky, having gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1. Kentucky comes in off a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26 but enters this contest just 4-4. The Volunteers have started three QBs but junior Jarrett Guarantano has thrown the majority of the passes (161 of 243) and has 11 of the team's 14 TD passes (against five INTs). A quick check of the numbers reveal taht Tennessee is scoring 24.7 PPG on 349.0 YPG, while allowing 24.1 PPG on 3451.0 YPG (hard to make those almost identical numbers up). The Vols have just three games left and need TWO wins to become bowl-eligible. I've read where some think the Vols are surging but I view the team's recent 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run as nothing more than them taking advantage of some flawed opponents at home and covering a big spread (+34.5) while losing 35-13 at Alabama. Kentucky knows all about QB merry-go-rounds, as an injury to starter Terry Wilson and ineffective play by Sawyer Smith has forced Stoops to turn to receiver turned quarterback, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden started the year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 348 yards but is now lining up under center. He's completing just 40.5 percent of his passes but has excelled as a runner, highlighted by a 204-yard game in Kentucky's most recent game, a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26. However, Bowden has also made some unique history in two recent games for the Wildcats. Against South Carolina, he joined Arizona State's Kalen Ballage as the only FBS players since 2000 to have at least six rushing attempts, three receptions, three kickoff returns and two pass completions in the same game. A week later against Arkansas, he had at least 20 rush attempts, 10 pass attempts and a punt return in the same game to become the third FBS player since 2000 to do so along with Kent State's Julian Edelman and Indiana's Antwaan Randle-El. Both schools are two wins shy of bowl eligibility but while Kentucky has four game left, Tennessee only has three and one is at Missouri, where the Tigers are 5-0. Historically, beating the Wildcats has been near-automatic for the Vols, as Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee TWICE since 1984! However, the Vols lost at Kentucky in 2017, for just the second time in 33 years. That said, Kentucky is 4-1 SU at home in 2019 and 5-0 ATS, as the Wildcats covered their lone home loss against Florida, in a 29-21 loss. Revisiting that contest, the Wildcats led 21-10 early in the 4th quarter, before folding. My bet says Kentucky, not Tennessee, is the team surging. The Wildcats win at home vs Missouri began a closing stretch of playing FOUR of their last five games in Lexington, plus the lone road game is against a 2-6 Vandy team. Win here, the Wildcats could finish with EIGHT wins, before heading off to a bowl. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Stanford -3 v. Colorado | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Stanford at 3:00 ET. David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but at 4-4 (3-3 in Pac 12), the Cardinal will need to win TWO of their final four games in 2019 to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season (ninth under Shaw). Colorado has a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker and after a 3-1 start, his Buffs have lost FIVE in a row (Buffs are 3-6 / 1-5 Pac 12). Stanford comes into this contest off a 41-31 home win over Arizona, a game marked by the return of senior K.J. Costello, who had missed the previous three contests with a thumb injury. Costello showed few signs of any rust, completing 30-of-43 for 312 yards and three TDs. Costello has 'game,' as he showed last season by throwing for 3,540 yards with 29 TDs and just 11 INTs. Against Arizona, he connected with 12 different receivers. Senior RB Cameron Scarlett (700 YR / 4.4 YPA / 5 TDs) provided balance on the ground with 102 yards and two TDs. Stanford's offensive numbers are poor (22.6 PPG on 348.8 YPG) but with Costello back under center, that could (WILL) change. While Stanford's offense is "on the mend," QB Montez and the Colorado offense has 'gone in the tank,' after a hot start. The Buffs opened 3-1 while averaging 35.8 PPG but Colorado 'limps' into this contest having lost FIVE in row, with the team scoring 14 or less points in THREE of its last four outings. Montez was expected to take a HUGE step forward in 2019 but that hasn't been the case, as he's thrown for a modest 2,242 yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs. However, it's hard to focus too much on Montez, when Colorado's defense has allowed 34.4 PPG (114th) on 480.7 YPG (124th). Colorado has allowed 30 or more points in all NINE games and has allowed 333.7 YPG passing in its last three. That's "bad news' with Costello back healthy for Stanford. Thd Cardinal will likely finish with their worst record under Shaw but then again, Shaw' has compiled a 25-7 record in the month of November and he's got FOUR of them in 2019. I expect Stanford to finish strong (and extend that bowl streak). The Cardinal "got going" on the final Saturday of October with that win over Arizona (see above) and coming off a bye week, are "rested and ready" to roll over a Colorado team which is stumbling to the finish line. Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Baylor v. TCU +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on TCU at 12:00 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 after surviving a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite. Baylor owns a 10-game winning streak and currently is ranked 11th in the latest AP poll, while opening No. 12 in the first CFP rankings. The Bears head to Forth Worth on Saturday to face the 4-4 TCU Horned Frogs (2-2 in Big 12). TCU beat then-No. 15 Texas 34-27 on Oct 26 but then lost 34-27 at Oklahoma St last Saturday. Head coach Gary Patterson but it well telling reporters last Saturday, "We're just good enough we can beat anybody we got in this league, and we're just good enough we can get beat by anybody in this league." , Baylor's latest win was a 17-14 Halloween night victory over West Virginia in which it found a way to eke out a win by fending off the Mountaineers' big plays. Baylor outgained West Virginia 453-219 but lost three fumbles. QB Charlie Brewer is completing 67.6 percent for 2,143 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. FIVE players have over 160 yards rushing, led by Lovett (495 YR / 6.4 YPA) and Hasty (439 RY / 6.3 YPA). Baylor owns a very balanced offense, averaging 280.9 YPG passing and 199.4 YPG rushing, leading to averaging 36.1 PPG (24th). The defense has played well all season, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG (20th) on 341.1 YPG (31st). TCU played a bad game at Stillwater last week. The Horned Frogs allowed 223 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher, the most ever by an opponent in coach Gary Patterson's 19-season tenure in Fort Worth. The Frogs also committed four turnovers. QB Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss with a finger injury but Patterson has told reporters he expects Duggan to play. The freshman has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs (three coming vs OSU). Like Baylor, TCU has excellent offensive balance, passing for 221.5 YPG and rushing for 220.2 YPG, while averaging 33.4 PPG (42nd). The defense is allowing a modest 326.2 YPG (25th) but 26.1 PPG (59th). Rhule has done a great job at Baylor but the Bears begin a brutal three-game stretch, starting with this game at Fort Worth. Baylor returns home next Saturday to host No. 9 Oklahoma and then travels to Austin to play Texas the following Saturday. More importantly, how many times can Baylor "pull a rabbit out of its hat?" The Bears edged Iowa St 23-21, needed two OTs to beat Texas Tech (now 3-5) and in its last game, beat West Va (now 3-5) by three points. Even Baylor's 45-27 win over OSU was deceiving. The Bears actually trailed 27-24 in the 4th quarter, before scoring the game's last three TDs. How tough has TCU been at home under Gary Patterson. He took over at TCU full-time in 2001 and since that first season, the Horned Frogs are 89-22 SU at home, including 3-1 in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-22.2 PPG. The Horned Frogs have won FOUR straight over Baylor and ruin the Bears perfect season with a win here. Good luck...Larry |