09-01-19 |
Houston v. Oklahoma UNDER 81 |
Top |
31-49 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 8-5 after suffering a humiliating 70-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma (0-0) has twelve starters back from the group that lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinals by a 45-34 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners led the nation last year by averaging 48.4 PPG along with generating 570.3 total YPG. After seeing their offense improve their numbers in each of the last four seasons, the Regression Gods were likely to make a visit to Norman this year. But with Jalen Hurts the new starting quarterback for this team after his transfer from Alabama. Hurts has outstanding leadership skills as he led (the uber-talented) Crimson Tide to a 24-2 record as a starter. But Hurts does not have the same talent as Tua Tagovailoa nor Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray who have been the two Heisman Trophy winners that Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has had at his disposal over the last two years. In four playoff game appearances, Hurts completed just 43% of his passes for the Tide while averaging just 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. There is a reason he was benched at halftime of the 2017 National Championship game against Georgia. The Sooners are also almost completely rebuilding their offensive line with four starters from last year departed to play in the NFL. Mayfield had the benefit of five returning starters on the offensive line two years with Murray having three returning starters last year. Hurts is not getting the same good opening hand as his two predecessors at Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners just reach their 48.4 PPG scoring mark from last year in this game, the Under should still be in pretty good shape with them being 23 or so point favorites against the Cougars. Of course, the Oklahoma defense was a mess last year as they ranked last in the Big 12 by allowing 33.3 PPG along with 453.8 total YPG. This unit can probably not help but improve under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who oversaw a very good defense in a previous stint at Washington State. Grinch has installed a new “positionless” scheme that emphasizes aggressiveness and play-making. This may be a better fit than the staler ideas of previous coordinate Mike Stoops. The Sooners’ secondary should be better with three juniors returning as starters who have received a baptism by fire last year. Houston will be installing a new offensive Air Raid scheme under new head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars are happy to have a fully-healthy D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November. But this is an offense that Oklahoma is very familiar with given its deployment by many of the teams in the Big 12. Houston also had defensive issues last season after allowing 37.2 PPG along with 496.4 total YPG. That unit was ravaged by injuries — they allowed a more manageable 28.0 PPG in their first six games before their depleted unit surrendered 45.0 PPG in their final seven games. This defense will have something to prove after their embarrassing effort against Army in their bowl game where the team had checked out on head coach Major Applewhite. Holgorsen has proclaimed that playing good defense is a “high priority” for him — he has hired a good defensive coordinator in Joe Cauthen whose attacking style running the defense at Arkansas State led to 146 sacks over the last four seasons. Holgorsen has added six junior college transfers to improve the talent of this group led by cornerback Damarion Williams who was a junior college All-American last year. The Cougars have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the regular season. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Big 12.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total eclipsing the 80 point mark in some spots, it will take a high level of offensive production of both teams to reach the Over. Don’t be surprised if both of these potent offenses make some execution mistakes in this opening game. This logic helps to inform a historical angle supporting the Under that has been 75% effective since 1992. In games in the first two weeks of the season with the Total set at 63 or higher between two teams from major 1-A conferences, when at least one of the teams returns a starting quarterback from the previous season, the game finished Under the Total in 40 of these last 53 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-19 |
Ball State v. Indiana UNDER 61.5 |
Top |
24-34 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). THE SITUATION: Ball State (0-0) returns seventeen starters from their team that finished 4-8 last season. Indiana (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s 5-7 team. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals were hit hard by transfers in the offseason with six players leaving the program. The offense lost two incumbent starters from last year in senior quarterback Riley Neal who transferred to Vanderbilt and senior running back James Gilbert who moved to Kansas State. There is an argument to be had that perhaps both these players were going to lose their jobs this season. On the other hand, Neal had started 32 games for Ball State while throwing for 7393 yards and 46 touchdown passes while Gilbert rushed for 2806 yards in his career with the program — and that was good enough to entice two football programs in Power Five conferences. Ball State was just 102nd in the FBS last year by scoring just 4.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Any improvements on offense will likely not materialize right away. As it is, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. I do expect to see significant improvements from the Ball State defense that returns nine starters. This is the second year for this unit playing in a 3-4 formation. This move worked for the first seven games last year under defensive coordinator David Elson as they hold those first seven opponents to just 23.9 PPG. But injuries eventually took their toll as the Cardinals allowed their last five opponents to score 44.4 PPG as their lack of depth was exposed. Back at full health and with better depth from the experiences from last season, Ball State should be much improved in the second year playing in the 3-4 look. They return seventeen players who registered at teals ten tackles last year. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against Big Ten foes. Ball State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Hoosiers defense regressed last year with only three returning starters — they allowed 423.8 total YPG which was 83.7 YPG more than what they surrendered in 2017 when they ranked 27th in the nation in total defense. Don’t be surprised if this unit approaches those strong defensive numbers from two years ago with seven starters back along with eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year. Tom Allen feels confident enough with this group that he promoted linebackers coach Kane Wommack to defensive coordinator to free up his time focus exclusively with his head coaching duties. Allen has already made a big move by tapping redshirt freshman Michael Penix as the starting quarterback to replace returning starter Peyton Ramsey. Penix has a better runner with a stronger arm — but with this team playing in a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, it might take some time for this unit to gel. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They also have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana won last year’s rivalry game between these two schools by a 38-10 score with that result falling well short of the 62.5 point Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-19 |
Oklahoma State -13 v. Oregon State |
Top |
52-36 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 7-6 after upsetting Missouri in the Liberty Bowl by a 38-33 score. Oregon State (0-0) returns sixteen starters from last year’s team that stumbled to a 2-10 record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State is usually a reliable double-digit favorite even on the road under head coach Mike Gundy beginning his fifteenth year with the program. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After three straight seasons with double-digit victories, Oklahoma State took a step back last year. Despite scoring 38.4 PPG (13th in the FBS) and averaging 500.2 total YPG (10th in the FBS), the offense took a step back from the previous season in large part because their quarterbacks completed only 59.4% of their passes while throwing 13 interceptions. In 2017, the Cowboys scored 45.0 PPG while generating 569.8 total YPG which was 4th and 2nd best in the country. Gundy may have found a gem to be his new offensive coordinator in Sean Gleeson who ran a very innovative offense at Princeton. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of surprise regarding what specialty plays Gleeson unveils in his debut with this offense. The Cowboys have not named a starting quarterback between redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and graduate transfer Dru Brown who both were on the roster last season learning this offense. Gleeson often used more than one QB at Princeton so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State rotates both quarterbacks tonight to confuse the Beavers with different looks. The Cowboys remain loaded with talent at the skill positions with three of their top four receivers returning this season — headlined by junior All-American Tylan Wallace — along with running back Chuba Hubbard who averaged over 100 rushing YPG against the gauntlet of Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU and Missouri. Gundy’s teams start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of August. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside the Big-12. And in their last 17 contests in expected high-scoring affairs with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. The defense should improve in the second season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon State’s passing attack is the strength of their offense with returning starters at wide receiver and a sixth-year senior Jake Luton who has received medical exemptions after injuries have limited him to just nine starters in the last two seasons. But the strength of the Cowboys defense will likely be their secondary with all four starters returning. Oregon State will be without their top wideout in the speedy Trevon Bradford as the senior is out with a back injury. The Beavers may also be without their senior safety Jalen Moore who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. These are two tough opening week injuries that will make it more difficult for Oregon State to stay competitive in this game. The Beavers were outscored by -20 PPG last season while also losing the yardage battle by -132 net YPG — and that margin was even worse in Pac-12 play where they were outgained by -178 YPG. Moore had 102 tackles last season — and even with him on the field, Oregon State allowed their opponents to have a Success Rate of 53.4% which was 129th in the FBS. That is an ominous number when facing this powerful Cowboys offensive attack. The Beavers allowed 45.7 PPG along with 536.8 total YPG which both ranked 128th in the nation. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August.
FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys allowed 452.5 total YPG last year, they do return five starters from that group which is a good sign for improvement (or at least that this team is undervalued right now) — and that helps place Oklahoma State into an early-season historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1992. In games played in the first two weeks of the season, road teams who allowed at least 400 YPG last season but return at least five defensive starters have then covered the point spread in 61 of the last 88 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-19 |
UCLA +3.5 v. Cincinnati |
Top |
14-24 |
Loss |
-100 |
48 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) looks to rebound from a 3-9 campaign last season. Cincinnati (0-0) enjoyed an 11-2 record last season that was capped by a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA started the season losing seven straight games last year under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. But a rotation of players loaded with freshmen and sophomores continued to improve with the Bruins winning three of their last five games including a 34-27 upset win over USC in the second-to-last game of their season. This should be a vastly improved team this year under a very good head coach in Kelly. The UCLA offense now has a clear direction with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center who is a great fit for Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense schemes. The Bruins started last year with senior transfer from Michigan Wilton Speight as the starting quarterback who was not a great fit for Kelly’s typical offense since he lacked mobility as a pocket passer. UCLA also saw the emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelley who shined during conference play (including 289 yards against USC) en route to 1243 rushing yards. The Bruins offense averaged only 312 YPG in their first four games but generated 432 total YPG over their last eight games. With nine starters returning this season in the second-year of Kelly’s system, that level of productivity is probably the floor for this team. The defense should also be better after Kelly inherited a unit that allowed 36.6 PPG while ranking 122nd in the FBS by allowing 483.7 total YPG. Last year’s group allowed -2.5 fewer PPG along with 90 less rushing YPG — and with ten starters back which includes four sophomores who started as a freshman last season, this group should also make a big jump in their quality of play. UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Cincinnati returns fourteen starters from last year’s team including redshirt sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who led the team last season. This was an offense that was perhaps too dependent on big plays last season — they averaged 3rd and long on 46.7% of their third downs last year. The biggest concern for the offense is the offensive line that returns only two starters. The defense returns seven starters from an outstanding group that was 11th in the nation by allowing just 303.5 total YPG. But the stout Bearcats defensive line from last season must replace all three of their starters including two outstanding leaders in defensive tackles Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. Cincinnati has not retained much of a home-field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening game between these two teams last season where Cincinnati pulled the upset on the road in a Rose Bowl by a 26-17 score despite being a two-touchdown underdog. Too much was being expected about that Kelly team in his first year with the Bruins program — but with an entire offseason to prepare for this rematch, look for UCLA to be primed to pull the upset in this revenge opportunity that can immediately launch this program into gear in Kelly’s second season. But take the points for a little road dog insurance. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-19 |
Arizona v. Hawaii +11.5 |
Top |
38-45 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) looks to build off an 8-6 campaign last year the culminated in a 31-14 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Hawai’i Bowl. Arizona (0-0) looks to improve on a 5-7 campaign last year where they failed to reach a bowl game in the first year under head coach Kevin Sumlin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are expected to improve this season to at least be bowl eligible this year with fifteen starters back. The hope is that senior quarterback Khalil Tate will return to his 2017 form after an early ankle injury limited his ability to move the ball with his legs. Tate rushed for only 224 yards last year after gaining 1141 yards on the ground in 2017. But Tate regressed as a passer as well as he completed only 56% of his passes which was a 6.2% drop from his 62% completion percentage in his sophomore season. While some of that can be explained away from being stuck in the pocket dependent on his arm, it seems also true that Tate simply struggled to adjust to offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s system. Tate is a phenomenal athlete — but he is not the most cerebral of quarterbacks. The pressure will be on him to keep Arizona one step ahead of their opponents with a suspect defense that was 92nd in the nation last year by allowing 432.0 total YPG. Eight starters return for defensive coordinator Marcel Yates — but this is a small unit that still lacks an identity. Sumlin’s teams tend to underachieve on the road — the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by more than a touchdown but no more than 14 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring contest — but the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 63 or higher. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the number set at 70 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at least at 70. Fourth-year head coach Nick Rolovich returns eighteen starters from last year’s group that far exceeded preseason expectations. Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is not being given nearly as much benefit of the doubt as Tate is for Arizona despite his dealing with injuries last season that impacted his productivity in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 42.0 PPG in their first eight games last year — and McDonald is fully healthy again with eight other returning starters on offense. I expect a big day from the dual-threat QB against this suspect Wildcats defense that finished second-to-last in the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. I also think the defense will take a step in the right direction under Corey Baton who is the first returning coordinator in nine years for this unit. Baton has nine returning starters back.
FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i typically starts the season strong as they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in the first two weeks of a new season which includes five straight point spread covers in the month of August. This is a dangerous opening contest on the road for this Arizona team. Expect a close game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson +6 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Back in August, my Best Bet to win the National Championship was on Clemson because I preferred the value in their future odds in the 4:1 to 5:1 range as more appetizing than Alabama’s odds in the 2:1 to 3:1 range. With this final pairing set, I have observed some pundits claim that there is little value in Clemson getting +4.5 to +6 or so points. Say what? The Tigers lost the first playoff meeting between these two teams in 2016 by a 45-40 score before upsetting the Tide by a 35-31 score in the second meeting the next year. Nick Saban then had a month to prepare for last year's third showdown which Bama won by a 24-6 score — and that game exposed the limitations of Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. It is with this fourth chapter in mind that Dabo Swinney made the difficult decision to bench an effective Bryant this season for freshman Trevor Lawrence. In hindsight, that move looks brilliant as it jumpstarted the Tigers offense who they closed the season ranked 4th in the nation by scoring 44.3 PPG while ranking above Bama at 3rd in the FBS by averaging 530.4 total YPG. Lawrence looked great in decimating a good Notre Dame defense by completing 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards while tossing three touchdown passes. He now faces a vulnerable Crimson Tide secondary that has surrendered 308 and 301 passing yards to Oklahoma and Georgia in their last two games. The Alabama defensive backfield was an initial concern for me this season considering that they replaced their top four starters along with their top six on the depth chart. It is more difficult to repeat as champions since it is challenging to muster the same level of energy and urgency as that which drove the team in their first triumph over the proverbial mountain. And I see red flags when defending champions start losing focus by getting chippy with trash talk and cheap shots — and that is exactly what happened to Alabama when they blew their point spread cover against the Sooners. Rather than tactics of intimidation, I fount it indicated a lack of confidence — or, perhaps it displayed chemistry issues for a group with national championship or bust expectations that has played all season with a divided locker room over their two quarterbacks? Something seems off — and now they will face a program that has reached their level over the last four seasons. That is not a good sign for the Crimson Tide who have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points. Clemson has notched 54 victories over the last four seasons while perhaps being more talented than the team that won the 2016 National Championship. Even without Dexter Lawrence with his PED suspension, this could be their best defense under star defensive coordinator Brent Venables. This group ranks above Bama in all major defensive categories for what that is worth. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games as the underdog while winning six of those games straight-up.
FINAL TAKE: I lean to Clemson to win this game outright given the lingering chemistry/cohesion issues with Alabama that reared its ugly head in the Semifinals along with the motivational edge this team has in revenge against a reigning champion that might be just a little less hungry this time around. But please take as many points as you can for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB National Championship A-List Special with Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson OVER 57.5 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams have top-five scoring offenses and defenses — but I think both teams’ offenses seem a little of their defense and the urgency of this contest should eventually push the scoring Over the Total. Alabama is second in the nation by scoring 47.7 PPG while ranking fourth in the FBS by averaging 527.6 total YPG. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa competed 24 of 27 passes against the Sooners defense last week for 318 yards with four touchdown passes to lead the Crimson Tide to victory. The Over is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 games after they pass for at least 280 yards in their last game. This dynamic passing attack is a new wrinkle for a Nick Saban Crimson Tide team as they rank 6th in the nation by averaging 325.6 passing YPG. While Bama has sported elite wide receivers who have found great success in the NFL, Saban may have recruited his most diverse set of receiver targets for this season’s offense. They should exploit a vulnerable Clemson secondary that was torched for 430 passing yards by Texas A&M and 510 passing yards by South Carolina. Alabama has played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field when favored — and they have played eleven of their last sixteen bowl games Over the Total including six of their last seven major bowl games played in January. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, Alabama has played 7 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 points range. But the Crimson Tide displayed some weaknesses in their defense again Oklahoma by allowing 471 yards of offense. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bama secondary was a question mark for this team entering the season with them losing their top six defensive backs from last year’s depth chart. Alabama allowed the Sooners to pass for 308 yards after Georgia passed for 301 yards in their last two games. Dabo Swinney made the move at quarterback early in the season to prepare freshman Trevor Lawrence for this potential rematch because of his strong arm. The 6’5 gunslinger completed 27 of 39 passes against the Fighting Irish for 327 yards with three touchdowns. He leads an offense that has averaged 567.0 total YPG over their last three games. Overall, Clemson ranks 4th in the nation by averaging 44.3 PPG while generating 530.4 total YPG which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Tigers have only allowed 13 combined points over their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 5 games played in the month of January, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth straight season that these two teams have met in the College Football Playoffs. Alabama won the first game by a 45-40 score before Clemson won the rematch in January 2017 in a 35-31 contest. The Tide won in last year’s Semifinals in a defensive contest with Clemson using Kelly Bryant at quarterback in a 24-6 result. Expect the fourth chapter of this series to resemble the first two in it being a high-scoring shootout. 25* College Football Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-19 |
Texas +13.5 v. Georgia |
Top |
28-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia fancies themselves as an elite program despite rarely winning a big game since Hershel Walker led them to a national championship just before Ronald Reagan took office as President of the United States. The Bulldogs feel they were robbed out of being one of the top four teams in the country tapped to play in the College Football Playoffs despite blowing a 28-14 lead to the Crimson Tide and despite a 20-point loss to LSU (and playing a weakling non-conference schedule). Georgia are worse than blue bloods because they think they have earned the privileges of the elite without putting in any of the work to garner requisite achievements. If only the Bulldogs could rely on nepotism to get into the playoffs! This is all to say that I expect Georgia to be over-confident in this matchup as they will likely expect the Longhorns to faint at the sight of them taking the field. Star cornerback DeAndre Baker might have set the tone for this team when he decided to bypass this game to stay healthy for the upcoming NFL draft. His absence does leave the Bulldogs secondary vulnerable to Texas’ pair of big wide receivers in Collin Johnson (6’6) and Jordan Humphrey (6’4) who combined to accumulate 1964 receiving yards with 16 combined touchdowns. Georgia also displayed some issues in their run defense against the better teams on their schedule as they allowed Alabama, Auburn, and LSU to rush for over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs allowed 25.2 PPG when away from home which is almost a touchdown more than their season average. Georgia got into some high-scoring affairs down the stretch of the season with at least 63 combined points scored in each of their last three games. That is not exactly the style of play that Kirby Smart likes to nurture as a defensive-minded head coach — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Quarterback Jake Fromm completed 25 of 39 passes for 301 yards in their loss to Alabama — and Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Their sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger played well in defeat by completing 23 of 36 passes for 349 yards while adding another 42 rushing yards and accounting for four overall touchdowns in their loss to the Sooners. The Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Ehlinger has done a very good job of protecting the football as he threw 25 TD passes while tossing only five interceptions with eleven games this season where he did not throw an interception. But Texas did surrender 379 passing yards to Oklahoma in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 19 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last game. This Texas defense has steadily improved as they held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Longhorns play well in these big games under head coach Tom Herman as they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five games played on a neutral field as the dog.
FINAL TAKE: Herman has certainly thrived in these underdog situations in his head coaching tenure at Houston and now in Austin, Texas. His teams are 12-3 ATS in their fifteen games as an underdog with Herman leading his team to the upset victory in ten of these contests. Texas certainly has more to prove in this game with a high-profile win in this bowl game doing wonders for their psyche and recruiting profile moving forward — while Georgia still complains that they would have beaten Notre Dame and Oklahoma last Saturday. Expect a close game. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-19 |
LSU v. Central Florida UNDER 58.5 |
Top |
40-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: LSU has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games after a game where at least a combined 60 points were scored. The LSU defense was once again one of the best units in the nation as they ranked 24th in the nation by allowing only 20.9 PPG and they also ranked 29th in the FBS by giving up just 346.1 total YPG. Even with that multiple overtime game against the Aggies, the Tigers only allowed 311.7 total YPG over their last three games. Their secondary will be without their two starting cornerbacks with Greedy Williams taking the game off to prepare for the NFL draft and Kristian Fulton dealing with a foot injury. But LSU always has talent at the cornerback position — and the Tigers coaching staff has had a month to develop the next players up on the depth chart. LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least two weeks between games. The Tigers outstanding defensive line will help alleviate some of the pressure that the Knights wide receivers will offer to their secondary. LSU has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the favorite. The Tigers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Central Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Knights have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points. And while UCF generated a whopping 698 yards of offense against the Memphis defense, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the Knights surrendered 583 yards to the Memphis offense with 401 yards being on the ground. UCF has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after giving up at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. The Knights have had a bend but not break defense that has allowed only 21.3 PPG which is 25th best in the nation. UCF has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. The big question for this game is how this Group of Five team will handle the significant step up in competition against an elite Power-Five Conference opponent. This year’s UCF team faced only one top-25 statistical defense in Cincinnati (who just surrendered 31 points to a mediocre Virginia Tech offense). Tellingly, the Knights have seen the Under go 8-0-1 in their last 9 games against fellow SEC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: LSU will commit to running the football to control the line of scrimmage and keep the explosive UCF offense off the field. That dynamic should help contribute to this being a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 56.5 |
Top |
13-52 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). NC State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 58-3 win over East Carolina back on December 1st as a 24.5-point favorite. Texas A&M (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 74-72 win in multiple overtimes against LSU as a 3-point favorite back on November 24th. These two teams meet in Jacksonville for the Taxslayer Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by senior quarterback Ryan Finley, the Wolfpack offense scores 35.6 PPG while averaging 471.3 total YPG — those numbers rank 20th and 15th best in the nation. Over their last three games, this offense was clicking on all cylinders by scoring 48.0 PPG while averaging 526.7 total YPG. Finley will be without wide receiver Kelvin Harmon who is skipping this game to avoid injury prior to the NFL draft but he still has a host of other weapons including a 1000-yard receiver in Jakobi Meyers. He will be using this game to build his own NFL draft resume — and he should feast off an Aggies secondary that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 262.7 passing YPG. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61% of their passes against the Texas A&M defense while throwing 25 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. But the Wolfpack defense will likely struggle to slow down the Aggies’ offense. In their five games on the road, NC State surrendered 30.0 PPG while allowing those opponents to average 439.2 total YPG. Their defense will be without their best player and top tackler in linebacker Germaine Pratt who is also bypassing this game for NFL prep. This is a defense that was torched by opposing quarterbacks as they ranked 120th in the nation by allowing 271.2 passing YPG. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 16 games against non-conference opponents. NC State has also played 6 straight bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. The Wolfpack have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing as an underdog on a neutral field. Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. Texas A&M has their own dynamic quarterback in Kellen Mond who threw 23 touchdown passes while leading an offense that scored 34.7 PPG (26th in the nation) and averaged 465.8 total YPG (19th in the FBS). The Aggies have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC.
FINAL TAKE: NC State and Texas A&M have run defense that rank 13th and 2nd in the nation respectively — so don’t be surprised if the running games are abandoned for more passing. More passing means more possessions which helps our Over play. This shapes up to be a wild high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Michigan State +3 v. Oregon |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Michigan State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season on November 24th with their 14-10 win over Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite. Oregon (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 55-15 win at Oregon State on November 23rd as an 18-point favorite. These two teams meeting Santa Clara’s Levi Stadium for the newly named Redox Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State had sky-high expectations this season with nineteen starters back from a team that went 10-3 last season which culminated in a 42-17 drubbing of a Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl who then defeated these Ducks this season by double-digits. Injuries on offense held Sparty back this year with quarterback Brian Lewerke and running back L.J. Scott both battling injuries all season. Both players have had five weeks to heel and both should as healthy as they have been in months for this bowl game as the Spartans look to end their season on a high note. There is little wrong with the Michigan State defense that ranked 12th in the nation by allowing just 18.0 PPG while also ranking 14th in the FBS by allowing their opponents to average just 311.5 total YPG. Sparty was also 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to -106 YPG below their season offensive average. They limited Ohio State to just 347 yards of offense — so they should be able to contain Justin Herbert and this Ducks’ offense with the few weeks of preparation. Michigan State has allowed only four offensive touchdowns in their last five games. After shutting down the Buckeyes offense, the Spartans then limited Nebraska to 248 yards of offense before allowing Rutgers to gain a mere 217 yards in their final regular season game. Michigan State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This defense travels as well as they only allowed 13.2 PPG in their five games away from East Lansing while limiting those opponents to just 294.0 YPG. The Spartans out-gained their five opponents on the road by +64.0 net YPG. Head coach Mark Dantoni should have his team ready to play this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games when played on a neutral field. Oregon has been reliably inconsistent as of late. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Oregon is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks offense generated 510 yards against Beavers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. This Oregon team was riding high after they pulled off an upset win over Washington — but then they fell to earth with double-digit losses to Washington State and Arizona while allowing an offensively-challenged Utah team score 32 points against them. In their five games away from home, the Ducks were out-gained by -24.8 net YPG. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when favored by no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State is a very physical team with five weeks to rest up and heal for this game. The team with the closest profile to their style of play that Oregon played was Stanford — and the Cardinal defeated the Ducks by a 38-31 score. Dantoni relishes the underdog role for his Spartans. His teams have covered the point spread in their last five bowl games as the dog with Dantoni leading his team to the straight-up upset win in those last four bowl contests. Expect another upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB Bowl Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama -14 |
Top |
34-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Alabama (13-0) won the SEC Championship Game back on December 1st with their 35-28 win over Georgia as an 11-point favorite. Oklahoma (12-1) won the Big 12 Championship Game with their 39-27 win versus Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Miami, Florida in the Orange Bowl for the second Semifinals showdown in the College Football Playoff.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The Sooners were playing with revenge on their minds when facing the Longhorns to begin this month — but I suspect they get exposed tonight for their subpar play on defense. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. These are very ominous signs when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The theory for Oklahoma backers is that they will simply outscore Bama in this game. Heisman Trophy winner Kyle Murray led the nation’s number one statistical offense in the nation — and he passed for 379 yards in their win over Texas. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Murray may not have his best target available — or at full strength — given the foot injury to Marquise Brown that he suffered in the Big 12 Championship that did not look very encouraging at the time. These circumstances are not encouraging given that this is a football team that has is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against SEC opponents. Alabama played their closest game of the season in their comeback win over the Bulldogs. Head coach Nick Saban typically gets his team to respond with a strong effort after a game where he can show them the bad game tape. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road game after a narrow victory of 7 points or less against a conference rival. The theory that Oklahoma will simply outscore Bama has to account for the fact that the Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide did allow 454 yards against Georgia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Alabama did take a step back on defense this season after losing eight starters along with their top six defensive backs from last year’s National Championship team. But this remains a unit loaded with blue-chippers (as opposed to Oklahoma) who should benefit from the extra week of bowl practices. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has suspended a few players — but they have the depth on the offensive line to sustain those losses for this game. Tua Tagovailoa seems to be 80-85% with his foot injury that he suffered against Georgia. I would worry about these issues more if they were playing a better defensive unit. Jaylen Hurts proved in the SEC Championship Game that he is willing and able to provide this team a spark if Tagovailoa is not effective. Ultimately, I think the Alabama defense will be able to generate at least some defensive stops — and I don’t think Oklahoma can slow down the Tide’s powerful offense. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 78.5 |
Top |
34-45 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Oklahoma generated 508 yards in that contest with the Longhorns — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 405 yards in their last contest. The Sooners led the nation by scoring 49.5 PPG while also leading the FBS with an average of 577.9 total YPG. They also led the country by averaging +196 YPG above their opponent’s defensive YPG average this season. QB Kyle Murray fits the prototype of the quarterback that has given Nick Saban’s defense fits over the years with his dual-threat capabilities. He passed for over 4000 yards while averaging 11.9 Yards-Per-Passing attempt. The Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 943 yards with 642 of those yards accounted for from designed running plays where he averaged 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Texas A&M’s QB Kellen Mond rushed for 129 yards against the Bama defense with 92 of those yards coming from designed plays earlier this season. But the bigger defensive concerns below to the Sooners. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. Oklahoma has paled 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Alabama’s defense looked vulnerable against a Georgia team that generated 454 yards against them. The Crimson Tide have seen the Over go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Alabama has also played 11 of their last 15 bowl games Over the Total — and they have seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games played on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: The Total set is at Big 12 level heights in the high-70s which is not uncommon for Oklahoma games. Alabama has a better offense than what the Sooners have seen all season. The pressure to continue scoring creates a self-fulfilling prophecy — expect a wild high-scoring game. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Alabama ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 58 |
Top |
3-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have won three straight games by at least three touchdowns — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning at least their last two games by 21 points. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Clemson once again boasts an outstanding defense that ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the FBS by only giving up 276.7 total YPG. Those defensive numbers drop to 12.8 PPG and 252.0 YPG allowed in their six games played away from home. The Tigers are going to make things very difficult for this Irish offense. Clemson leads the nation by pressuring the quarterback in 45.8% of opponent passing plays. They also rank tops in the country by limiting opposing rushers to just 0.9 Yards-Per-Carry before delivering the first hit on the runner. Notre Dame has relied on clean holes from their offensive line as they average 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry before their rusher is hit which ranks 37th in the nation. While the Clemson will be without defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence for this game as he was suspended for this contest for positive PED test, their defensive line is loaded with talent and depth. This group should be even more ferocious with the extra rest and preparation — and this team has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Tigers do have a dynamic offense that became more powerful when freshman Trevor Lawrence took over under center early in the season. Clemson has scored 98 points over their last two games — but they have played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Clemson has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they generated 473 yards of offense against the Trojans defense, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Irish surrendered 349 passing yards in that game with USC — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Notre Dame is an outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Fighting Irish have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog giving 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is a matchup between two similar teams that employ run-first offenses that help to protect talented but inexperienced quarterbacks — and both teams like to rely on their strong defensive units. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Auburn v. Purdue UNDER 57 |
Top |
63-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). THE SITUATION: Auburn (7-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 52-21 loss at Alabama as a 25.5-point underdog back on November 24th. Purdue (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on that November 24th with their 28-21 victory at Indiana as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Nashville in the Music City Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. The Auburn defense was humiliated by the arch-rivals in the Iron Bowl as they surrendered 500 yards of offense in their loss to Alabama. While most of the attention has since been on the Tigers offense that saw their offensive coordinator in Chip Lindsey leave for the same job at Kansas, the Tigers defense has much to prove in this game. The Under is 4-0-1 in Auburn’s last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers had not given up more than 30 points in one game all season before their showdown with the Crimson Tide — they still enter this bowl game ranked 18th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. There is plenty of talent on the defensive side of the football, particularly on the defensive line. Head coach Gus Malzahn takes over the play-calling once again with Lindsey defection but I do not see this leading to a transcendent difference in the play of their offense. This will be junior QB Jarrett Stidham’s last collegiate game before he makes himself available for the NFL draft but he oversaw an underperforming offense that scored just 18.4 PPG — almost 10 PPG below their season average — in their five games played on the road. The history of this team suggests this will be a lower-scoring game than expected. Auburn has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range — and the Under is 15-4-2 in their last 21 games against teams outside the SEC. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Tigers’ last 8 games played on a neutral field — and the Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 bowl games. Purdue has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Senior QB David Blough passed for 310 yards in their last win over the Hoosiers to end the season — but the Boilermakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Purdue has only committed one turnover in three straight games — but they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Some observers are expecting a big offensive output from this team with head coach Jeff Brohm staying with the program after turning down overtures from Louisville where he oversaw huge offensive numbers as their quarterback. The Boilermakers put up 49 points against Ohio State in their upset win over the Buckeyes this season — but that was against a mess of an OSU defense that was not responding to coaching and basic fundamentals at that point of the season. This same offense scored only 13 points at Michigan State and a mere 10 points at Minnesota. Over their last three games, Purdue has averaged just 378.3 total YPG. This offense will likely struggle against the size and speed of the Auburn defensive line. Lastly, the Boilermakers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a conference rival.
FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have intriguing offensive head coaches, expect this bowl game to be a lower-scoring game this afternoon. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-18 |
Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +3 |
Top |
3-35 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
Take the Baylor Bears plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Texas Bowl. Baylor (6-6) looks to build off their 35-24 win at Texas Tech in their last game as a 6-point underdog. The Bears got their offense going by generating 478 yards of offense in that game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games in the month of December. Vanderbilt (6-6) has won three of their last four games with their 38-13 win over Tennessee to close out their regular season. The Commodores held the Volunteers to just 139 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, while Vanderbilt did not force a turnover in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Take Baylor plus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports CA$HED the Denver-Oakland Under in the NFL on Monday in their last Football Totals play which continued their 19 of 28 (68%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR! Now after passing in CFB Bowl Totals plays yesterday, Frank’s TOP THURSDAY TOTAL is with the Vandy-Baylor O/U winner on ESPN at 9 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!
|
12-22-18 |
Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii |
Top |
31-14 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (7-5) has lost their last two games after closing out their regular season on November 24th with a 30-15 upset loss at Western Kentucky as a 10.5-point favorite. Hawai’i (8-5) has won two straight games after they pulled off a 31-30 upset victory at San Diego State on November 24th as an 18-point underdog. The Rainbow Warriors are the host team in the Hawai’i Bowl taking place a couple days earlier than it’s traditional Christmas Eve or day spot.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): If there is one coach I am not going to worry too much about having his team ready to play even in Hawai’i over winter break, it is Skip Holtz who has led Louisiana Tech to win all four of their bowl games under his guidance in the previous five seasons with the program. Even better, the average winning margin for the Bulldogs under Holts has been by -20.5 PPG. After this team lost three of their last four games of the regular season, this is a business trip for this team. As it is, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home field. The Bulldogs did out-gain the Hilltoppers by a decisive +92 net yards in that contest while holding them to just 288 net yards but lost the Time of Possession battle by having the ball for only 25:57 minutes of that game. Little worries of that History Repeating itself tonight against this pass-happy Warriors offense. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Louisiana Tech ranks 32nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 350.9 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 298.0 total YPG. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker will benefit from the extra few weeks to prepare for the unique relic of an offense that Hawai’i operates with their old Run-and-Shoot resurrected by their third-year head coach Nick Rolovich. Four close wins decided by one scoring possession for this Rainbow Warriors team obscures the fact that they were out-scored and out-gained in yardage by their opponents this season. They do have the home field advantage for this game but despite their 5-2 home record, they are only outscoring their visitors by 1.0 PPG. Over their last three games, Hawai’i was outscored by -10.3 PPG. They did generate 516 total yards against a collapsing San Diego State defense to end the season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Louisiana Tech should be able to move the ball at will against this suspect Rainbow Warriors defense that ranked 101st in the nation by allowing 438.7 total YPG. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games against teams with a winning record — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.
FINAL TAKE: Home field advantage is tempting for the Rainbow Warriors tonight — but that edge only goes so far. A motivated Bulldogs team that is well-coached with a very good defense should overwhelm this Hawai’i team that has become too one dimensional on offense with the Run-and-Shoot gimmick. 25* CFB Bailout Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Buffalo v. Troy OVER 49.5 |
Top |
32-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-29 upset loss to Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 3-point favorite back on November 30th. Troy (9-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-10 loss at Appalachian State back on November 24th as a 12-point underdog. These two teams meet in Mobile, Alabama for the Dollar General Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by just 3 points or less against a conference rival — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This Bulls team has a balanced offense that averages 195.8 rushing YPG (44th in the nation) and 221.6 passing YPG (73rd in the FBS) to produce an offense that ranks 24th in the nation by scoring 34.8 PPG. But stopping opposing offenses can be an issue for this team after they allowed a Northern Illinois offense that has been rather meek this season to generate 409 yards of offense. 300 of those yards were in the air in that game — and Buffalo has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Bulls are allowing 420.0 total YPG which is over 70 YPG more than their defensive average for the season. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bulls have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with more than two weeks between games — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Troy has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Trojans have a good defense that ranks 23rd in the FBS by allowing just 21.2 PPG. But Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, Troy has played 7 straight games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total in bowl games.
FINAL TAKE: Troy lost their starting quarterback, Kaleb Barker, to a season-ending ACL injury in the middle of the year — so the extra few weeks of practice and repetitions should really help sophomore QB Sawyer Smith. Boise State, UL-Monroe, Georgia State and South Alabama all had success moving the football against the Trojans defense. This should be a competitive game which should help push the Total over the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-18 |
Marshall v. South Florida UNDER 52 |
Top |
38-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 41-20 loss at Virginia Tech as a 3.5-point underdog. South Florida (7-5) has lost five straight games after their 38-10 loss to Central Florida as a 16.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. With this bowl game being moved from St. Petersburg to Raymond James Stadium on Tampa Bay, the Bulls playing in their home stadium for this bowl game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-9-1 in South Florida’s last 31 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulls have also played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, not only has South Florida played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after suffering three straight losses to conference rivals but they have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The big question for this team is whether or not junior quarterback Blake Barnett will be able to take the field in this game. The former Alabama QB injured his ankle two games ago which kept him out of that final game with UCF. Barnett is officially listed as questionable for this contest and while he has taken off his walking boot this week, there is little other indication that he is actually ready to play in this game. I suspect that second-year head coach Charlie Strong will not risk further injury to his likely incumbent starter who has not practiced for this game and who will not be at 100%. But even if he plays, he will be running an offense that has scored only 16.7 PPG over their last three contests while wavering only 296.0 total YPG over that span. South Florida will lean on their rushing attack that averaged 202.5 rushing YPG which was 34th best in the nation. But running the ball will be difficult against this Thundering Herd defense that ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 105.3 rushing YPG — and they limit opposing rushers to just a 2.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulls only managed to pass for 113 yards against Central Florida in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total after a game where they failed to pass for at least 125 yards. South Florida has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home. Marshall has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points. The Thundering Herd allowed the Hokies to average 7.09 Yards-Per-Play in their last game — but they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Head coach Doc Holliday should see his defense rebound with a better game tonight as they rank 23rd in the nation by allowing just 336.9 total YPG while also ranking tied for 29th in the FBS by giving up only 22.0 PPG. Marshall did not force any Virginia Tech turnovers in their last game — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, the Thundering Herd have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by no more than 3 points. And in their last 7 bowl games, Marshall has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The challenges for the South Florida offense increased when their offensive coordinator, Sterlin Gilbert, left for the McNeese State head coaching job during bowl prep. Strong has tapped Justin Blake to be his interim play-caller despite his lack of experience with those duties. With the Total set in the low-50s, expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-18 |
Ohio v. San Diego State +3 |
Top |
27-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (7-5) limps into the bowl season having lost three straight games after their 31-30 upset loss at home to Hawai’i to end their regular season despite being an 18-point favorite in that game back on November 24th. Ohio (8-4) has won two straight games with their 49-28 win over Akron as a 24-point favorite back on November 23rd. These two football programs meet for the first time in the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: It was a strange season for San Diego State. After an opening week loss at Stanford, the Aztecs rattled off six-straight wins including impressive wins against Arizona State and at Boise State. But Rocky Long’s team was hit with the injury bug with starting quarterback Christian Chapman and running back Juwan Washington missing significant time with injuries — and that coincided with a difficult stretch of the season where they had challenging road games at Nevada and Fresno State. San Diego State lost three of four games down the stretch against Mountain West Conference rivals that were decided by just 15 combined points. The team was then flat in their season finale where they got upset by Hawai’i. But now Chapman and Washington are healthy again — and one thing this program has been under Long’s leadership is reliable when bouncing-back a from loss. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a loss decided by 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. Having Washington healthy should jumpstart this offense as he rushed for 870 yards with ten touchdowns despite playing in just eight games. The Aztecs are once again outstanding on the defensive side of the football where they rank 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 327.4 total YPG. The Bobcats want to run the football as they rank 9th in the nation by rushing for 262.2 rushing YPG. But San Diego State ranks 4th in the nation by allowing only 94.5 rushing YPG this season — and opposing rushers averaged just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs faced six teams that qualified for bowl games this season — and those six teams averaged only 64.3 rushing YPG against this stout San Diego State defense. The Aztecs entered this season with a 32-9 record over their last three seasons. They are rarely an underdog under Long’s leadership — but when they are, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when getting the points. Ohio has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Bobcats preceded that 21-point win over the Zips with a 35-point win over Buffalo the previous week — but Frank Solich’s team has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Ohio has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing away from after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Bobcats out-rushed Akron by a whopping 349 net yards in their last game — but they have failed cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. Ohio has benefited from averaging +1.08 net turnovers per game this season which is the 5th best mark in the nation. They have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. But after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. They will be facing an Aztecs team that has not committed a turnover in two straight games. The Bobcats thrived at home where they were a perfect 6-0 this season — but they were just 2-4 on the road while being out-gained by -30 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio has reached a bowl game in nine of the last ten seasons under Solich while enjoying a 41-6 blowout win over UAB in the Bahamas Bowl last year. San Diego State has reached a bowl game in all eight years in Long’s tenure but fourteen returning starters will look to redeem themselves from a 42-35 upset loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl as a 7-point favorite. With the Aztecs healthy again, they are probably the better team in this game — and they will be doubly motivated to use this game to erase last year’s underwhelming performance as well as the poor effort over three weeks against Hawai’i. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State |
Top |
13-52 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). THE SITUATION: North Texas (9-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four games with their 24-21 win over UTSA as a 25-point favorite back on November 24th. Utah State (10-2) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped on that Saturday when they lost by a 33-24 score at Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: I do not like the dynamic from which Utah State enters this game. They suffered a deflating loss to the Broncos that ruined their Mountain West championship aspirations. As it is, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when bouncing back from a loss on the road to a conference rival. And while Utah State has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team is also without their head coach Matt Wells who left the program after that game to become the new head coach for Texas Tech. With interim head coach Frank Maile operating as a lame duck before Gary Andersen returns to the program to serve as the Aggies’ head coach again, it is questionable as to just how motivated this team will be for this game. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the month of December. The Aggies have benefited from a +0.92 net turnover margin per game which is 8th best in the nation — but they did not force a turnover and suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that loss to Boise State. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. Defense is also a concern for this team as they have allowed 471.1 total YPG which is over 85 YPG above their season average. Teams can pass on this team as they rank 84th in the nation by giving up 240.1 passing YPG. This is also a team that thrives at home with a dominant 35-9 mark at home over the years. Both of the Aggies’ losses were on the road this year where they were out-gained away from home by -47.8 net YPG. Additionally, Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 3 points or less against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two straight games against conference rivals. Furthermore, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. North Texas may scare off some bettors considering that they have only covered the point spread once in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Led by quarterback Matt Fine who has passed for over 3700 yards this season while posting a sterling 27:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Mean Green has generated 511 and 516 yards in each of their last two games. North Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight contests. Fine should find success against this Aggies pass defense as he leads an offense that ranks 11th in the nation by averaging 316.3 passing YPG. While the UNT pass defense is vulnerable, the Mean Green defense can make Utah State one-dimensional as they rank 15th in the nation by allowing only 113.5 rushing YPG. Lastly, North Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: North Texas has reached a bowl game in each of the first two seasons under third-year head coach Seth Littrell — but they have yet to win that final game. The Mean Green should be very motivated to earth their first bowl win under Littrell while reaching the ten-win milestone this season. 25* CFB New Mexico Bowl Special Feature with the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
Tulane -3.5 v. UL-Lafayette |
Top |
41-24 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). THE SITUATION: Tulane (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning four of their last five games with their 29-28 victory over Navy on November 24th as a 5-point favorite. UL-Lafayette (7-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game where they lost at Appalachian State by a 17.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane will be very excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2014 — and their first postseason game under third-year head coach Willie Fritz. The Green Wave were inches away from being bowl eligible last season before getting stuff on the goal line in their upset bid against SMU leaving them at 5-7 and ailing to become bowl eligible. This moment has been a long time coming for this program that returned fourteen starters from last year’s team. Tulane has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. The Green Wave have lost three games this season decided by 7 points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This team has improved on offense since Justin McMillan took over at quarterback. The graduate transfer from LSU has throw ten touchdown passes in his last five games after completing 18 of 29 passes for 291 yards with three TD passes against the Midshipmen while adding another touchdown with 51 rushing yards in that victory. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Tulane did not force a turnover in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last contest. This team led the American Athletic Conference by allowing just 5.4 Yards-Per-Play in conference games. They are particularly tough against the run as they ranked second in the AAC by allowing just 152.6 rushing YPG — and they held their opponents to only 3.95 Yards-Per-Carry. They held their opponents to 38 YPG below their offensive season average. Furthermore, the Green Wave have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This is not a good matchup for this Ragin’ Cajuns team facing an opponent from a superior conference. UL-Lafayette relies on running the football so they will be playing into the strength of the Tulane defense — and they only average 208.0 passing YPG which is 89th in the FBS. The Ragin’ Cajun defense struggles to defend the run as they rank 107th in the nation by allowing 210.0 rushing YPG — and their opponents average 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry. They face a big challenge when facing this Green Wave offense that is 30th in the nation by averaging 208.3 rushing YPG. UL-Lafayette may be facing some new wrinkles as well after Fritz fired his offensive coordinator Doug Ruse after the Navy game. Alex Atkins will be calling the plays for this game. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed their opponents to average 41 YPG above their offensive season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight Unders.
FINAL TAKE: I like the dynamic this Tulane team has entering this game with the challenge of a new offensive coordinator helping to focus their attention as they play their first bowl game in years. UL-Lafayette usually is tapped to play in the New Orleans Bowl in the opening Saturday of the bowl season. This Green Wave is more battle-tested having played in an American Athletic Conference that is significantly better than the Sun Belt. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-18 |
Navy v. Army UNDER 41 |
Top |
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). THE SITUATION: Navy (3-9) enters their rivalry game coming off a 29-28 loss at Tulane as a 5-point underdog back on November 24th. Army (9-2) has won seven straight games with their 28-24 win over Colgate as an 11-point favorite back on November 17th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams have played 10 straight Unders — and there are a few fundamental reasons why that is the case. For starters, both teams run similar spread triple options — so the usual advantage that these teams enjoy during the regular season with facing opponents that are not as familiar with their unique offenses are gone in this matchup. Both these defenses practice against this offense every day. Second, both teams have extra weeks to prepare their defenses for the particular nuances of their opponent’s offense. In theory, this extra time could also be used to add a few wrinkles to the offenses. However, in practice, both these teams lack the personnel to all of the sudden start running the West Coast Offense (for example). Now, we cannot simply be zombies and automatically take the Under in each Army-Navy game. This year’s Total has dropped to the 40 point range which is the lowest number over those last ten encounters. Eventually, the Over will be the appropriate play. But when considering that five of the last six meetings between these two teams have not seen more than 38 combined points scored, I am still very comfortable taking the Under in this game. Army should slow down the Midshipmen rushing attack as they rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 106.5 rushing YPG. The Black Knights have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Army has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with a bye week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Navy has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total in the month of December. Additionally, the Midshipmen have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Navy only scores 21.7 PPG when playing away from home — and they average just 310.4 total YPG on the road. Lastly, the Midshipmen have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams in cold temperatures (but no snow) with Philadelphia forecasting to have their temp in the 30s. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
Northwestern +16.5 v. Ohio State |
Top |
24-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (8-4) has won three straight games with their 24-16 win over Illinois as a 16-point favorite last week. Ohio State (11-1) has won four straight games with their triumphant 62-39 upset win over Michigan as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: No one doubts the talent level with this Buckeyes team — but this team has been underachieving all season. The issues regarding Urban Meyer were a distraction for this team early on — but it just seems like the culture of this team has gone in the wrong direction considering their 29-point loss at Purdue along with a narrow victory at Maryland that might have been decided when the Terrapins decided to go for the win rather than the tie with a 2-point conversion attempt in overtime. Ohio State has much more talent than either of those teams — and they will be facing a Wildcats team that is more talented than either of those two Big Ten rivals. The Buckeyes played their best game of the season — or in many seasons — last week against their arch rival. The last time Ohio State was a home underdog was in 2011 when they hosted Wisconsin — and they had not been an underdog to the Wolverines since 2004. This was a team clearly motivated to make a statement. But emotional letdowns are common after big wins like that — and this Buckeyes’ team is particularly susceptible to inconsistency. Not only has Ohio State failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning their last four games. No tricks were saved on offense last week against the top statistical unit in the country — and Ohio State ripped the Michigan defense for 567 total yards while averaging 8.46 Yards-Per-Play. But the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. Failure to play fundamental football has been the biggest weakness for this team this season — it is as if the players have stopped listening to the coaches. The Michigan game was probably an exception with all the players on notice — but this defense ranks 67th in the nation by allowing 398.8 total YPG despite being loaded with NFL talent. It is even worse when they play away from home as they are allowing 470.2 total YPG when playing on the road. Northwestern is battle-tested with a 3-point loss to Michigan and a 10-point loss to Notre Dame. The Wildcats play strong defense as they rank tied for 29th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 21.7 PPG — and that marks drop to a mere 17.0 PPG when this team is playing away from home where they are a perfect 5-0 this year. Under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, this team is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games in conference play — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. This team is the epitome of dangerous underdogs given their strong fundamental play. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as a dog with nine outright wins. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog — and they have seven outright wins in those games. Northwestern has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog against Big Ten opponents with six of those games being where they pulled the upset.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State needs a statement victory to overcome Oklahoma to reach the final four in the playoff race (assuming that Georgia does not upset Alabama). When in a similar situation in 2014, the Buckeyes responded by destroying Wisconsin by a 59-0 score. We had Ohio State in that game — but I don’t think this group can flip the switch the way this program could under Meyer a long four years ago. These two teams last played in late of October of last season where another uber-talented Buckeyes team only won by a 24-20 score. In this classic letdown spot, I look for Ohio State to struggle against a sound opponent. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
Fresno State +3 v. Boise State |
Top |
19-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (10-2) reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their 31-13 win over San Jose State last Saturday as 32-point favorites. Boise State (10-2) matched them last week with their 33-24 win over Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. The Bulldogs generated 515 yards of offense against the Spartans last week — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Led by quarterback Marcus McMaryion, Fresno State averages 282.8 passing YPG which is 23rd best in the nation. Pass defense is a vulnerability for the Broncos as they rank 79th in the nation by allowing 238.9 passing YPG. But where this Bulldogs team shines is on the defensive side of the football where they rank 2nd in the nation by allowing only 13.5 PPG — and they rank 17th in the nation by giving up 321.7 total YPG. Fresno State has been even stingier on the road as home teams are scoring just 12.0 PPG against them while averaging a mere 324.8 total YPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Additionally, Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Boise State (10-2) has played two straight clean games when it comes to committing turnovers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Aggies passed for 363 yards last week in that loss — and the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Boise State has scored 78 combined points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on their blue home field. Furthermore, not only have the Broncos failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in that range.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a 24-17 upset win that Boise State pulled off back on November 9th as a 2-point underdog. After losing at home to San Diego State in October, the Broncos survived two games at home against the Bulldogs and BYU that were settled by one scoring possession before scoring with four (darn) seconds left in the game last week to pull away from Utah State. Look for Boise State’s good fortunes at home in close games to finally run out tonight against an opponent with an elite defense that will be motivated with double-revenge from not only this year but also losing in Boise in last year’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game. 25* CFB Saturday Night Special Feature with the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
UAB +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State |
Top |
27-25 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). THE SITUATION: These two teams meet again in Murfreesboro for the second straight week after Middle Tennessee (8-4) won last Saturday’s game by a 27-3 score in an upset where they were 3-point underdogs. UAB (9-3) travels back looking to avenge that loss and to win the Conference USA Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB had their spot in this championship game clinched before playing last week — but winning that game would have ensured that they hosted the conference championship game back in Birmingham. Perhaps head coach Bill Clark preferred to hold back some plays last week and ensure the opportunity to face these Blue Raiders again this week even if it meant playing on their home field? Either way, it looks pretty evident that Clark had the Blazers take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime in that game. UAB managed only 89 yards of offense in that game. Clark is an outstanding coach who has pulled off a minor miracle to get this team to the conference championship game despite going on a two-year hiatus four years ago. Clark was rewarded on Friday with a big contract extension that makes him the highest paid football coach in Conference USA. He should have his team ready to play a great game. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss by at least 17 points despite being favored in that game. UAB is also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss as well as being 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points — so this group has proven themselves to be very resilient under Clark’s leadership. Furthermore, the Blazers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns to their opponent. UAB has lost their last two games with both those contests being played on the road. But the Blazers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing their last two contests on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering two straight losses on the road by double-digits. UAB should get their offense going this week — they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 207.5 rushing YPG. They are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. But where this team should really see improvements in this rematch is on the other side of the football where they rank 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 287.2 total YPG. UAB is also 9th in the FBS by allowing just 16.7 PPG — and they out-gain their home hosts when playing on the road by +46.7 net YPG. This stout defense has helped the Blazers cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Middle Tennessee may not be able to prevent themselves from suffering from a bit of a letdown after winning easily last week to earn their opportunity to win the conference championship. As it is, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win as an underdog. Middle Tennessee did not commit a turnover last week but that might not bode well for them now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where they did not commit a turnover. The Blue Raiders get the opportunity to host this game at their Floyd Stadium where they are 5-0 this season — but they are only out-gaining their visitors by +35.8 net YPG. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect that Clark kept a few tricks up his sleeve with the expectation that this rematch would be occurring this week. He will have a very eager and motivated team looking to redeem themselves from the thumping they received last week. It will be difficult for the Blue Raiders to maintain the intensity and sense of urgency that they displayed last week. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 |
Top |
19-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (7-5) reached the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four games in a row with their 21-10 win over Troy last week as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Appalachian State held the Trojans to just 223 yards of offense while winning the rushing battle by a decisive 139 net yards. The Mountaineers have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. Appalachian State’s spread option offensive attack defines the program — but that aspect of their game should not distract from the outstanding defense that head coach Scott Satterfield has overseen in his sixth year with the program. Five starters returned to a defense that was tied for 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 20.2 PPG — and they also ranked 29th in total defense by allowing only 342.5 total YPG. This year’s unit has been even better as they rank 5th in the nation by allowing just 15.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the FBS by giving up only 278.2 total YPG. The Mountaineers are even stingier playing at home where they give up only 11.6 PPG along with just 271.4 total YPG — and over their last three games, this group is allowing a mere 11.3 PPG along with 259.7 total YPG. Appalachian State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. UL-Lafayette raced out to a 24-21 halftime lead against the Warhawks last week before hanging out to win by a 31-28 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 3 points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last contest. UL-Lafayette has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Ragin Cajuns have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games in Sun Belt Conference play — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. This championship game is a rematch of the October 20th meeting between these two teams that the Mountaineers won by a 27-17 score in their Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Ragin’ Cajuns did a pretty good job of slowing down the Appalachian State offense as they generated only 364 total yards which were over 118 yards below their season offensive average when playing at home. UL-Lafayette has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The Ragin Cajuns should play even better on defense in this rematch with the benefit of their experience facing this offensive scheme in October. UL-Lafayette ranks 104th in the nation by allowing 443.3 total YPG but they have allowed over -45 YPG less than that over their last three games. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Conference Championships Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Utah v. Washington UNDER 45 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won three straight games with their 35-27 win over BYU last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Washington (9-3) has also won three in a row after they upset Washington State on the road last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Washington held the powerful Cougars offense to only 237 total yards in an outstanding defensive effort — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies were one of my dark horse candidates to win the National Championship this season in large part because they returned nine starters from a stout group that was 5th in the nation by allowing only 16.1 PPG while ranking 8th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 298.8 total YPG. This year’s defense ranks 8th in the FBS by allowing 16.5 PPG while also ranking 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 311.3 total YPG — so this group has only a slight decline in their outstanding numbers. What has held this Washington team back has been a disappointing offense that is scoring only 28.0 PPG (tied for 75th in the nation) after averaging 36.2 PPG last season with quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin as juniors. The offensive line has taken a step back this season with the unit suffering a big loss with the season-ending injury to senior left tackle Trey Adams who was projected as a potential top-ten pick in the NFL draft. The Huskies did generate 487 yards against the Cougars last week — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The formula for success for head coach Chris Petersen’s team is winning the war in the trenches. They have out-rushed their last three opponents by at least 100 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last three opponents by at least 100 yards. Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their 10 games Under the Total as the favorite. Utah has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road after a victory on their home field. Furthermore, the Utes have played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Utah only gained 296 yards of offense against the Cougars but benefited from a 27-yard interception that they returned for a touchdown. The Utes have an elite defense that allows only 19.3 PPG (17th in the nation) — and they rank 15th in the FBS by only allowing 315.8 total YPG. Utah has the nation’s 5th best rushing defense that holds their opponents to only 100.3 rushing YPG — led by defensive line coach Gary Andersen who was a steal of a hire by head coach Kyle Whittingham after his stint at Oregon State soured last season. This is a rematch of the Huskies’ 21-7 victory over the Utes back on September 15th. Utah had junior Tyler Huntley under center for that game along with junior Zack Moss in their backfield — but both leaders on offense have since suffered season-ending injuries. For this rematch, the Utes will be using redshirt freshman Jason Shelley under center. While he has played well, he is likely a step back from Huntley who led an offense that only generated 261 yards with the one score. The defense did limit the Huskies to just 327 yards in that initial game — and I expect another gritty defensive performance. Utah has played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah knows they cannot get into a high-scoring affair with the Huskies given the injuries they have suffered on offense. This Washington team only scores 22.2 PPG in their six games away from home — so this game shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo |
Top |
30-29 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Northern Illinois (7-5) limps into the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan back on November 20th as a 6.5-point favorite. Buffalo (10-2) clinched their opportunity to win the conference championship with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green last Friday as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois has suffered two straight upset losses in a row as their loss to the Broncos was preceded by a 13-7 upset loss at home to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite. But because the Huskies raced out to a 6-0 record in conference play, the team was in firm control of winning the MAC West Division despite then losing their last two games. There is no better way for Rod Carey’s team to erase the memory of these last two setbacks then by winning this game and winning their conference title. This team returned fourteen starters from last year’s group that finished 8-5. This is the team’s first trip back to Ford Field in Detroit to play in this game in the last three years. As usual, this is a battle-tested team that played Utah at home while also traveling to play Iowa, BYU and Florida State in their non-conference schedule. They should play very well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference opponent. Northern Illinois did allow 285 passing yards to Western Michigan in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Huskies are led by their outstanding defense that ranks 26th in the nation by allowing only 344.0 total YPG. They rank 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 107.0 rushing YPG. Northern Illinois has only allowed 94 rushing yards in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Huskies are due for some better luck when it comes to the bouncing ball that often determines turnovers as they have endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. But Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Moving forward, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games in the month of November. Buffalo raced out to a 34-7 halftime lead over Bowling Green last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after holding at least a 24-point halftime lead in their last game. The Bulls are led by one of the best offensive lines in the country that helped them churn out 332 rushing yards against the Falcons meager defensive line (as we predicted when taking Buffalo in that game) — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Bulls held the Bowling Green offense to only 58 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. But run defense is an issue for this team as their opponents are averaging 169.5 rushing YPG this season which is 74th in the nation. On paper, the Northern Illinois offense looks weak as they rank 124th in the FBS by averaging only 318.0 total YPG — but that mark rises over 50 YPG to a 369.0 total YPG mark in conference play. This is Buffalo’s third straight game away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Illinois is in a better position to win this game given their experience in this game along with their brutal non-conference schedule and the extra days they have had to rest and prepare for this showdown. Their defense should frustrate a Bulls’ offense that ranks last in the MAC in Red Zone offense. This is the biggest football game for this Buffalo team perhaps in program history — they have not even played in a bowl game since 2013. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
Utah State +3 v. Boise State |
Top |
24-33 |
Loss |
-130 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). THE SITUATION: Utah State (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 29-24 win at Colorado State as a 30.5-point favorite. Boise State (9-2) enters this game coming off a 45-14 win at New Mexico as a 21-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: The close call with the Rams should get the attention of this team. Those 29 points were the second-fewest that Utah State has scored all season — and two of their touchdowns were scored on defense. The Aggies are second in the nation by scoring 49.3 PPG but they only had the ball for 17:55 minutes in that game against Colorado State. The weather did play a role in that contest — but that close call will help head coach Matt Wells communicate that his team can take nothing for granted tonight. Utah State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory. Utah State has been very good on the road this year where their only loss was a 7-point loss at East Lansing against Michigan State in their opening game of the season. The Aggies are 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring their hosts by +14.0 PPG. Utah State needs to play better on defense this week after allowing 506 yards to Colorado State last week. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State ranks 34th in the nation by allowing only 22.1 PPG. The Total is set in the high-60s for this game — and the Aggies have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Boise State had only scored 45 combined points in their previous two games at home against San Diego State and Fresno State before traveling to Albuquerque to face the Lobos last week. The Broncos are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Boise State held New Mexico and their run-based spread offense to just 103 passing yards (on just 14 pass attempts). The Broncos’ previous five opponents had generated at least 242 passing yards with that lowest number being from a run-oriented Air Force team that averaged 15.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the air. Boise State allows 226.9 passing YPG which is just 63rd in the nation — and that likely spells trouble when now facing quarterback Jordan Love who leads an offense that is 22nd in the nation by averaging 282.1 passing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. Boise State enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that win over the Lobos after not committing a turnover in that game. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a game where they did not commit a turnover. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their blue field at home. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The winner of this game advances to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game — so the stakes could not be higher. The Aggies also will have revenge on their minds after getting blown out by the Broncos last year by a 41-14 score. Eighteen starters returned from that team. Wells’ teams in the past could not win close games — they entered this season having lost their last eight games decided by one scoring possession. But after that opening loss to Michigan State, Utah State has won their only two games decided by one score with the experience of this team finally paying off. Don’t be surprised if this team pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Bailout Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 52 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-20 loss at Texas A&M last Saturday as a 17-point underdog. Middle Tennessee (7-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their step up in class against a team from the SEC last week in their 34-23 loss at Kentucky as a 16.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Blue Raiders defense for their loss to the Wildcats as they held Kentucky to just 324 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin played a critical role in deciding that game. The Under is 7-1-1 in Middle Tennessee’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Blue Raiders surrendered 203 rushing yards to Kentucky in that game — but the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Brent Stockstill did pass for 293 yards in that game — but the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. Now Middle Tennessee returns home where they are allowing only 21.0 PPG which is 6.2 PPG lower than their season average. The Under is 8-1-1 in the Blue Raiders’ last 10 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Middle Tennessee has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. UAB has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. This team did surrender 41 points to the Aggies last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. UAB holds their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 294.2 total YPG when playing on the road. But the Blazers see their 31.9 PPG scoring margin for the season drop to just 26.6 PPG when playing away home. UAB has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow Conference USA opponents.
FINAL TAKE: UAB has clinched a spot in the Conference USA championship game next week — and they could face this Blue Raiders team again next week if they lose this game while FIU loses at Marshall (as now a home dog). The Blazers may hold back a trick or two on offense because of this possibility. UAB won last year’s game by a 25-23 score with that total set in the 55.5 range. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
Navy v. Tulane -5.5 |
Top |
28-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). THE SITUATION: Tulane (5-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Thursday with their 48-17 loss at Houston as a 7.5-point underdog. Navy (3-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 37-29 win over Tulsa last Saturday as 5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Green Wave is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Now, this Tulane team returns home where they are outscoring their visitors by +7.4 PPG while out-gaining these opponents by +46.5 net YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games again teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Tulane has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games when favored in the 3.5 to 7.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Green Wave are doing a good job of implementing head coach Willie Fritz’s run-first spread offense as they rank 25th in the nation by averaging 215.5 rushing YPG. This ground game should have plenty of success against the faltering Midshipmen defense that ranks 92nd in the nation by allowing 194.5 rushing YPG. It has been a lost season for this Navy team that returned only nine starters from a team that dropped six of their last seven games in the regular season last year. With this group not eligible for a bowl with just three wins, this team may be looking ahead for their rivalry game with Army. As it is, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Navy has been a disaster on the road this season where they are 0-6 with an average losing margin of -20.3 net PPG. They are also being out-gained by -154.1 net YPG in these six road games. The Midshipmen have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games. Navy has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane needs this victory to become bowl eligible for the first time in Fritz’s three years with the program. They are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Midshipmen last year by a 23-21 score. The Green Wave did limit Navy to just 194 rushing yards in that game as they contained their spread triple option to averaging just 3.73 Yards-Per-Carry. I like that Tulane had an extra two days of rest and preparation for this unique offense. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-18 |
Oklahoma v. West Virginia +3 |
Top |
59-56 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (8-2) looks to bounce-back from a 45-41 upset loss at Oklahoma State last week as a 6-point favorite. Oklahoma (10-1) has won five straight games with their 55-40 victory over Kansas last week as a 35-point favorite. The winner of this game earns the right to play Texas next week in the Big 12 Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia had won three straight games before being upset by the Cowboys — but Dana Holgorsen’s team can redeem themselves from that loss with a win tonight. Led by Heisman Trophy candidate Will Grier at quarterback, the Mountaineers have a powerful offense that ranks 10th in the nation by averaging 502.0 total YPG. West Virginia has scored at least 41 points in four straight games and they generated 553 yards of offense last week against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They return home where they are a perfect 5-0 while scoring 46.0 PPG and generating 540.2 total YPG. Grier leads a passing attack that is 5th in the nation by averaging 340.0 passing YPG — and he should have plenty of success against this Sooners’ pass defense that ranks 107th in the nation by allowing 263.6 passing YPG. Defense is an issue for this West Virginia team (as it is for all Big 12 teams). But they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Playing back in Morgantown should help this team as they are allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 281.2 total YPG at home. West Virginia is outscoring their opponents by +32.8 net PPG while out-gaining their guests by +259 net YPG. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. West Virginia is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win over a conference rival. The Sooners did generate 568 yards against the Jayhawks — they averaged 7.89 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Oklahoma had averaged 9.12 YPP in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last two games. The bigger concern for this team is on the other side of the football where they have allowed at least 40 points in three straight games. The Sooners are allowing 425.8 total YPG which not only ranks 87th in the nation but is -73.6 net YPG worse than what West Virginia allows. Oklahoma allowed the Kansas offense to generate 524 yards against them — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Sooners failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Last year’s Oklahoma team allowed under 395 yards per game — yet head coach Lincoln Riley fired defensive coordinator Mike Stoops for that unit finishing outside the top-50 in defense for the sixth time since 2012. This defense appears even worse. Look for West Virginia to outscore this Sooners team back on their home field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-18 |
Nebraska v. Iowa -8 |
Top |
28-31 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). THE SITUATION: Iowa (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak last Saturday with their dominant 63-0 win at Illinois as a 15-point favorite. Nebraska (4-7) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games with their 9-6 win over Michigan State as a 1.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off the momentum of their blowout victory. They have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Hawkeyes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank 9th in the FBS by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank an even better 6th in the nation by giving up only 279.5 total YPG. After playing three of their last four games on the road, they return home to Iowa City for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG due their stifling defense that limits their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with a mere 243.8 total YPG. Iowa is also out-gaining their guests by +125.4 total YPG. The Hawkeyes are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on their home field. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Nebraska defeated Sparty in the snow last Saturday despite being outgained by -41 net yards. The Cornhuskers managed only 248 yards of offense against the Michigan State defense. That is not a good sign for this contest. Not only are they just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game but they are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards of offense in that contest. Head coach Scott Frost’s team is also just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Not they finish their disappointing season on the road where they are 0-4 this year while being outscored by -17.7 net PPG and out-gained by -102.5 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Frost has to get his team into the weight room as he looks to change the nature of this Nebraska program. The Cornhuskers’ defense has plummeted over the years — these Blackshirts rank tied for 96th in the nation by allowing 434.8 total YPG. These soft defenses are the type of teams that the Hawkeyes expose in the Ferentz era — especially when playing at home in Kinnick Stadium. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +13 |
Top |
35-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (5-6) has lost four straight games with their 36-29 loss in overtime at Vanderbilt as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Mississippi State (7-4) has won three of their last four games after enjoying their biggest victory of the season last week with their 52-6 blowout win over Arkansas as a 23.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss seemingly scored the winning touchdown in overtime before a penalty erased that play. It has been a disappointing season in the first-year under head coach Matt Luke who had the interim job last year after the program imploded when the actions of grifter Hugh Freeze came to light. The football program imposed a bowl ban for this year’s team — so this is the proverbial de-facto bowl game for this team with its nineteen seniors. In this rivalry game, don’t be surprised if Ole Miss plays their best game of the season. They have lost four games in a row — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing four straight games. They outgained the Commodores last week by a decisive 578 to 387 yardage margin but somehow found a way to lose that game. But this team plays their opponents close — they are out-gaining their opponents by +50.5 net YPG while out-gaining their last three opponents by +78.4 net YPG despite losing all three contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Ole Miss returns home where they are outscoring their out-gaining their opponents by +79.6 net YPG. This Rebels offense can score points on anyone. They rank 5th in the nation by averaging 539.7 total YPG — and they score 41.8 PPG while generating 572.3 total YPG when playing on their home field. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has passed for 3831 yards this season while tossing 19 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. Ta’amu is second in the NFL by averaging 348.2 passing YPG — and he has a dynamic target in wide receiver A.J. Brown who has 1259 receiving yards this season. This duo makes Ole Miss a dangerous underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games at home with the Total set int one 56.5 to 63 point range. Ole Miss has played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played on a Thursday, the Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Mississippi State may be due for a letdown after playing their best game of the season. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in five of these last six situations. Furthermore, Mississippi State has failed to cover the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over a conference rival. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a role in this game. While the Bulldogs have not committed more than one turnover in four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when not experiencing more than one turnover in four straight contests. They go back on the road where they are 1-3 this season while being outscored by -10.0 net PPG. The problem for this team away from home is they are scoring only 10.2 PPG away from home. The hope of first-year head coach Joe Moorhead was that he could establish a vertical passing attack for senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. Instead, Mississippi State is completing only 44.7% of their pass attempts on the road while averaging a mere 121.0 passing YPG which is 60 YPG below their season average. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams without a winning percentage higher than 50% at home. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to OIe Miss in the Egg Bowl.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State does bring a great defense into this game — but they will be facing a confident Rebels team that returned 15 starters (including Ta’amu and Brown) who pulled a 31-28 upset on the road as 14-point underdogs last season. This is where the hiring of Moorhead from Penn State where he was offensive coordinator may be a negative since as an outsider he lacks an appreciation for this rivalry game. The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Expect Ole Miss to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
Arizona v. Washington State -10.5 |
Top |
28-69 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-1) has won six straight games with their 31-7 win at Colorado last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Arizona (5-5) has won two straight games with their 42-34 win over that same Buffaloes team two Saturdays ago as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington State should continue to build off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Washington State returns home where they are a perfect 5-0 this season while outscoring their opponents by +18.0 PPG and out-gaining them by +189.0 net YPG. Led by quarterback Gardner Minshew, the Cougars lead the nation by averaging 392.3 passing YPG. He leads an offense that averages 473.4 total YPG when playing at home. But the improvement of this Washington State in the seventh year of head coach Mike Leach can be attributed to the play of their defense that is holding their visitors to just 16.2 PPG along with 284.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play helps explain why they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home. Arizona has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. But the Wildcats look due for a big letdown now having to go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season. Arizona is being outscored by -9.8 net PPG away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after playing their last two games against fellow Pac-12 opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And in their last 10 games played in the month of November, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Washington State needs to win this game to make their impending showdown with Washington next week being the deciding game as to which team will represent the Pac-12 North Division in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Cougars are unlikely to be looking ahead to that game as they will be motivated to avenge a 58-37 loss to the Wildcats last season. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 50 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (6-3) has won five straight games with their 28-14 win over Baylor last week as a 17-point favorite. Texas (7-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-34 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Quarterback Shane Ehlinger did pass for 312 yards in a winning effort last week — but Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Longhorns has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. And while Texas allowed 595 yards of offense to the Longhorns last week, they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Texas returns home to Austin to where they are allowing only 22.0 PPG. The Longhorns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Texas has also played a decisive 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Iowa State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Cyclones won that game despite gaining only 357 yards of offense in that contest. They did surrender 505 yards to the Bears — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Iowa State allows only 20.4 PPG which is 22nd best in the nation — and that number drops to just an 18.7 PPG make when they are playing on the road. But the Cyclones also only score 23.0 PPG on the road while generating a mere 311.2 total YPG. Iowa State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 17-7 score in Ames last season with that Total set at 62. With this year’s battle back in Austin where these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total, expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +7 |
Top |
41-45 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (5-5) has lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five games — with their 48-47 loss at Oklahoma last Saturday as a 21.5-point underdog. West Virginia (8-1) has won three straight games with their 47-10 win over TCU last week as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Cowboys generated 640 yards in their loss to the Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This powerful Oklahoma State offense should keep them in this game against this Mountaineers team with a shaky defense. They return home after playing their last two games on the road where they are scoring 42.3 PPG along with averaging 512.7 total YPG — and this helps them out-gain their guests by +13.1 net PPG along with out-gaining them by +116.7 net YPG. The Cowboys have seen at least 66 combined points scored in each of their last three games — and they are very comfortable getting into shootouts with this Total in the mid-70s. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while the Cowboys did not force a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 home games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. West Virginia dominated a reeling Horned Frogs team last week as they out-gained them by +313 net yards by churning out 535 yards of offense while limiting them to just 222 yards. But not only have the Mountaineers failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they are also just 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Dana Holgorsen’s team has covered the point spread in three straight games, his team is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they are 3-1 this season — but they are being out-gained in yardage in those games because their defense is allowing 445.5 total YPG in those games. Pass defense is the biggest vulnerability of the Mountaineers as they rank 74th in the nation by allowing 233.2 passing YPG — and that mark rises to 269 passing YPG when they are playing on the road. Those are ominous defensive numbers when facing quarterback Taylor Cornelius who is leading an offense that ranks 10th in the FBS by averaging 317.6 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: This has been a disappointing season for Oklahoma State who returned twelve starters from a team that finished 10-3 last season. Three of their losses this year have been decided by just one possession total a mere 11 points. But the Cowboys should be motivated to pull off the upset in their last home game of the season. Expect Oklahoma State to keep this one close with a real shot of scoring the straight-up win. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-18 |
Memphis v. SMU +9 |
Top |
28-18 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the SMU Mustangs (316) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (315). THE SITUATION: SMU (5-5) has won two straight games with their 62-50 win at UConn last Saturday as an 18-point favorite. Memphis (6-4) has also won two straight games with their 47-21 win over Tulsa as a 17-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSTANGS MINUS THE POINTS: For the second straight game, SMU raced out to a big halftime lead with Sonny Dykes team going into the locker room with a 31-10 lead over the Huskies after the first thirty minutes of play. The Mustangs enjoyed a 31-14 halftime lead in the previous week in their 45-31 upset win over Houston the previous week. SMU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime in two straight games. The Mustangs generated 595 yards of offense against the Cougars — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense has improved under Dykes once junior quarterback Ben Hicks got more acclimated to his expectations. The third-year starter lost his spot under center for freshman William Brown but after a strong performance in a losing effort against an undefeated Central Florida team, Hicks has significantly stepped up his game as the starting quarterback. Hicks has averaged 303.3 passing YPG over his last four games with throwing 10 touchdown passes while throwing only two interceptions. SMU has scored 53.5 PPG over their last two games which makes them a very dangerous underdog tonight. They lost at home to a one-loss Cincinnati team by just 6 points three weeks ago. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games in expected shootouts with the Total set at 70 or higher. SMU did not commit a turnover against UConn last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they did not commit a turnover. And while the Mustangs’ defense is giving up plenty of points, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Memphis has scored 106 points over their last two games after they defeated East Carolina by a 59-41 score in the week prior to their win over the Golden Hurricanes last week. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Additionally, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. Furthermore, while the Tigers have rushed for at least 277 yards in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight games. But now this team goes on the road again where they have lost three of their four games this season while being outscored by -7.8 PPG and being outgained by -78.0 net YPP. The Memphis defense allows their home hosts to score 42.0 PPG along with 503.5 total YPG. Quarterback Brady White has not fared well when asked to win shootouts. In the Tigers’ four losses, he is completing only 50.4% of his passes while averaging just 202 passing YPG (almost 60 passing YPG below the team’s season average) with only a 4:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This makes the Tigers unreliable road favorites — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points which includes them failing to cover the point spread in five of their last six games when laying those points.
FINAL TAKE: SMU will be very motivated to pull the upset in this game. Not only are they looking to avenge a 66-45 loss to Memphis last season but a victory tonight keeps them in control of their own destiny to win the American Athletic Conference West Division as they hold the tie-breaker against Houston. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the SMU Mustangs (316) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-18 |
Tulane v. Houston -8 |
Top |
17-48 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (311). THE SITUATION: Houston (7-3) has lost two straight games after suffering their second-straight upset loss in a row with their 59-49 loss to Temple on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. Tulane (5-5) has won three straight games with their 24-18 win over East Carolina on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston may have been suffering from the hangover of their 45-31 upset loss at SMU the previous week despite being a two-touchdown favorite in that game. The Cougars are still alive to reach the American Athletic Conference championship game but they need to win their remaining two regular-season games while then hoping SMU loses again. This is a team that has also been riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball with the biggest loss being their star defensive tackle Ed Oliver who will likely not take the field tonight with his knee injury. But Houston still has their starting quarterback D’Eriq King who has led an offense that ranks 2nd in the nation by averaging 546.1 total YPG along with scoring 47.8 PPG which is the 4th most in the FBS. The Cougars generated 527 yards of offense in their loss to the Owls last week despite having possession of the football for just 25:37 minutes of that game — and this team’s offense should overwhelm the Green Wave tonight. Houston has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss at home to a conference rival despite being the favorite. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Being at home on a short week should help after playing three of their last four games on the road. Houston is 4-1 at home with an average winning margin of +21.6 net PPG while outgaining the visitors by +121.7 net YPG due to their offense that scores 52.4 PPG at home while averaging 581.6 total YPG in those games. The Cougars have struggled on defense after allowing 104 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 37 points in two straight games. Tulane is scoring only 23.2 PPG along with averaging just 342.0 total YPG when playing away from home. With their senior dual-threat quarterback Jonathan Banks still questionable with an injury, head coach Willie Fritz will likely have to depend on LSU graduate transfer Justin McMillan who led them to victory last week. McMillan can operate the run-first spread offense that Fritz prefers but accuracy in the passing game is an issue as he has completed only 46% of his 87 pass attempts this season. The Green Wave averaged 6.94 Yards-Per-Play against the suspect Pirates defense last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Tulane has only committed one turnover in three straight games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not turning the ball over in two straight games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in those last four situations. This is the Green Wave’s third game on the road in their last four contests which is a very tough assignment when playing on a short week. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 trips to Houston to face the Cougars.
FINAL TAKE: Houston should take out their frustrations over the last two weeks with a big win over a Tulane team being outscored by -6.6 PPG on the road while being outgained by more than 100 yards in those road contests. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Houston Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-18 |
Buffalo v. Ohio -2 |
Top |
17-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (303). THE SITUATION: Ohio (6-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in their 30-28 upset loss at Miami (OH) despite being a 4.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-1) has won five straight games with their 48-14 win over Kent State last Tuesday as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio remains statistically alive to win the MAC East Division but their loss to the RedHawks was devastating to their realistic chances. The Bobcats need to win out their last two games with the Bulls needing to then lose next week to a lowly Bowling Green team to keep their chances alive of reaching the MAC Championship Game. But Frank Solich’s team can still play the role of the spoiler tonight as they look to redeem themselves from their upset loss to their arch rival in Miami (OH). As it is, Ohio has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Bobcats return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +23.7 net PPG and outgaining these opponents by +146.5 net YPG. Ohio has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home field. Led by quarterback Nathan Rourke, the Bobcats are scoring 39.3 PPG which is 12th best in the nation. Expected higher scoring games plays into this teams hands as the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Ohio has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo is in the midst of perhaps their best season in school history — but with their two-game lead in the MAC East Division, they can afford to lose this game and still reach win this title. This team returned fourteen starters from a group that finished 6-6 last year but was snubbed in getting an opportunity to play in a bowl game. This will be a very tough test for this program not used to pressure situations — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Athens to face this Ohio team. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games after playing their previous three games against MAC competitors. Buffalo raced out to a 34-0 lead last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They also outrushed Kent State by +258 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 gamed after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Lastly, while the Bulls have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in five straight games — so this is a team that might be primed for a letdown.
FINAL TAKE: Any chance that Ohio might be flat in this game is likely mitigated by Solich’s ability to invoke the memories of last year’s encounter between these two teams. The Bobcats fell behind by a 24-7 score in the first quarter on the road in that game but called to tied that game before falling behind again by 31-24 score. Rourke rallied his team for one final drive to tie the game — but he was intercepted in the end zone with just 1:20 minutes left in the 4th quarter to conclude that upset loss despite them being 6.5-point favorites. Look for Ohio to avenge that loss tonight against a Buffalo team that can still reach the MAC Championship Game with a victory next week. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Colorado State +14 v. Nevada |
Top |
10-49 |
Loss |
-105 |
33 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (171) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (172). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (3-6) has lost two games in a row after their 34-21 loss to Wyoming back on October 26th as a +3.5-point underdog. Nevada (5-4) pulled off their second-straight upset win with their 28-24 win at home over San Diego State two Saturdays ago as a +2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolf Pack upset the Aztecs just a week after they crushed Hawai’i on the road by a 40-22 score as a small +1.5-point underdog. Now Nevada finds themselves as two-touchdown favorites — but an emotional letdown for this team is likely. As it is, the Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. Furthermore, Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Wolfpack were outgained by San Diego State by a decisive -159 net yards but rallied from a 24-15 halftime deficit by enjoying a +2 net turnover margin. Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they enjoyed a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Wolf Pack have won three of their games this season by one scoring possession — and they are actually being outgained at home by -17.6 net YPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they are allowing 31.2 PPG due to a weak pass defense that ranks 108th in the nation by allowing 264.2 passing YPG. Colorado State should bounce-back from their loss at home to the Cowboys as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams went into the locker room at halftime trailing by just a 3-0 score — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field in the first-half of their last game. Colorado State was burdened by a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to Wyoming — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Head coach Mike Bobo needed the bye week at this point of the season with his team still fighting to become bowl eligible. The Rams’ defense shifted to a 4-3 formation in the offseason so an extra week of practice should help on that side of the football. Bobo also got an extra week of work with sophomore quarterback Collin Hill who has started the last two games after a long recovery from what has been two torn ACL injuries that have derailed him since being initially tapped to be the starting quarterback for this team in the fall of 2017. Despite this team’s struggles this season, Bobo has still overseen an explosive passing attack that ranks 15th in the nation by averaging 310.3 passing YPG. This potent passing game should keep the Rams competitive in this game — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 expected higher-scoring games on the road where the Total is set at least at 63. And in their last 16 games played in the month of November under Bobo’s leadership, the Rams have covered the point spread 11 times.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has underachieved this season while Nevada has overachieved a bit. As both teams meet for their tenth game of the season coming off a bye week, expect the Rams to keep his game closer than expected. 25* CFB Mountain Western Conference Underdog of the Year with the Colorado State Rams (171) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Maryland v. Indiana OVER 54.5 |
Top |
32-34 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). THE SITUATION: Maryland (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-3 loss to Michigan State last week as a 3-point underdog. Indiana (4-5) has lost four games in a row with their 38-31 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It has been feast or famine for the Terrapins on offense this season as they have scored 63 points against Illinois, 42 points against Minnesota and 34 points against Rutgers but managed only a field goal overall against Iowa and the Spartans. Perhaps the three touchdowns that Maryland scored against the mighty Michigan defense is the best line on their offensive resume. The Terrapins caught an angry Sparty last week that was embarrassed by the Wolverines in East Lansing the previous week. But Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Terrapins managed only 100 yards of offense against Michigan State — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last contest and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Now Maryland goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 10 road games as an underdog getting no more than a field goal, the Terrapins have played 8 of these games Over the Total. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Hoosiers surrendered 308 passing yards in that game — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Indiana has scored 59 points over their last two games after they put up 28 points against Penn State. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are fighting to become bowl eligible — and this level of desperation between mid-level teams can create high-scoring contests. Maryland upset Indiana last year by a 42-39 score as a +6.5-point underdog last season with the Total set in the 53.5 range. Expect another high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-18 |
Fresno State -2.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (113) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (114). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (8-1) has won seven straight games with their 48-3 win at UNLV last Saturday as a 27-point favorite. Boise State (7-2) has won four in a row with their 21-16 win over BYU last Saturday in a game where they were laying -11.5 points.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should build off the momentum of their big win last week as they are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs generated 466 yards in that contest — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Tedford’s stint in the Canadian Football League (after a brief turn in the NFL as an offensive consultant to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) seems to have been a boon for his appreciation of the nuances of college football. The long-time Cal coach was always considered an offensive guru but he has done wonders with quarterback Marcus Maryion. The Oregon State transfer thrived under Tedford’s guidance last season as he completed 62.1% of his passes for 2726 passing yards while throwing 14 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. Maryion has been even better this season as he is completing 70.9% of his passes for 2416 passing yards with 20 TD passes and just 3 interceptions. He leads an offense that is 11th in the nation by scoring 40.4 PPG. Maryion should have success against a suspect Broncos pass defense that ranks 74th in the nation by allowing 234.4 passing YPG. But what has made this Fresno State program different than Tedford’s Cal teams — and why this group made an immediate turnaround from a 1-11 record in 2016 — is the outstanding play on defense. The Bulldogs returned seven starters from last year’s group that allowed only 17.9 PPG and just 320.6 total YPG which ranked 10th and 15th best in the nation. The 2017 defense made startling improvements under defensive coordinator Orlando Steinauer who Tedford brought down from the Hamilton Tiger-Cats of the CFL while proving once again the impact of good coaching. While Steinauer returned to the CFL this season, the defense has not missed a beat under last year’s linebacker coach in Bert Watts who took over coordinating the defense while maintaining Steinauer's aggressive tendencies. Fresno State is allowing only 12.3 PPG which is tied for 2nd in the nation while ranking 14th in the FBS while limiting their opponents to just 307.0 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Bulldogs 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road which includes them covering then point spread in six of their last seven road games against teams with a winning record at home. Fresno State is outscoring their home hosts by +22.2 PPG due to their defense that is allowing only 9.6 PPG. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of November — and they have covered 4 straight games played on a Friday night. Boise State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Broncos are led by four-year senior starting quarterback Brett Rypien who leads an offense that is 10th in the nation by averaging 319.8 passing YPG. But Rypien will face his biggest challenge of the season facing this Bulldogs’ pass defense that is 16th in the nation by allowing only 178.2 passing YPG while limiting opposing quarterbacks to completing just 48.1% of their passes and only 8 TD passes. Boise State has won four in a row after a loss at home by a 19-13 score to a San Diego State defense that has a similarly strong defense as the Bulldogs but lacks their explosiveness on offense. The Broncos have the allure of their blue field but that has not translated into a home-field advantage — or perhaps bettors have overvalued this intangible. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games at home. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: This is the third meeting between these two teams in less than a twelve-month period after these two teams split their two meetings last year. Fresno State certainly had this date circled since this is their first opportunity to avenge their 17-14 loss to Boise State that the Broncos’ hosted in the Mountain West Conference championship game last December 2nd. Look for the Bulldogs to avenge that loss with what appears to be an even better team than last year’s group in Tedford’s first season with the program. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (113) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-18 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
15-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). THE SITUATION: Toledo (5-4) has won two straight games with their 45-13 win over Ball State last Wednesday as a 19.5-point favorite. Northern Illinois (6-3) has won five straight games with their 36-26 win at Akron as a 6-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets scored one of their touchdowns by recovering a fumble in the end zone — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they generated 531 yards of offense in that game, they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Toledo rushed for 204 yards in that game against the Cardinals last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The team will likely continue to commit to establishing their ground game with junior quarterback Mitchell Guadagni likely out for this game with a shoulder injury. Sophomore Eli Peters will get his third start tonight — but he is struggling in the passing game as he is completing only 53.7% of his passes. Protecting Peters will also be an issue tonight as the Rockets have allowed 21 sacks this season — and the Huskies have compiled 32 QB sacks this season. Toledo has steadily improved on defense as they are allowing only 22.7 PPG over their last three games. They have also held their last three opponents to just 118.7 rushing YPG which is more than 50 YPG below their season average rush defense. The Under is 25-12-1 in the Rockets’ last 38 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of November. Northern Illinois generated 484 yards of offense in their win over the Zips — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Huskies return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Northern Illinois has also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points. The Huskies are led by their defense that ranks 29th in the nation by allowing only 21.7 PPG. That number drops to just 18.0 PPG when they are playing at home — and they have allowed only 17.7 PPG over their last three games while holding those opponents to just 327.7 total YPG. Northern Illinois thrives in stopping the run as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing only 103.8 rushing YPG. The Huskies limited Akron to just 35 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. But this Northern Illinois team struggles to create offensive as they rank 123rd in the FBS by scoring 19.2 PPG while also ranking 125th in the nation by generating only 309.4 total YPG. Only 139.1 of those yards come from their passing game which ranks 121st in the nation — yet they are only averaging 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry from their rushing attack. Playing at home has not helped this offense either as they are scoring only 18.0 PPG along with just 304.0 total YPG. The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against MAC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and the Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 encounters between these two teams when playing at Northern Illinois. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams that face significant albeit different challenges on offense. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-18 |
Georgia Tech v. North Carolina +5 |
Top |
38-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (336) plus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (335). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (1-6) has lost four straight games with their 31-21 loss at Virginia last Saturday as a +7.5-point underdog. Georgia Tech (4-4) has won three of their last four games with their 49-28 upset win at Virginia Tech back on October 25th as a +3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for North Carolina — and head coach Larry Fedora is clearly on the hot seat in his seventh season with the program. But this group is still playing hard for their head coach — three of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. The Tar Heels should continue to play hard this afternoon. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after suffering four straight losses. Due to a quirk in the scheduling, North Carolina returns home to play in just their third home game all season — and playing five of their first seven games on the road is a good way to stumble into another disappointing season. The Tar Heels split their two games at home so far this season — upsetting Pittsburgh by a 38-35 score as a 3-point underdog while losing by a 22-19 score to Virginia Tech as a +6.5-point dog. North Carolina has outgained these two opponents by a decisive 504.0 to 388.5 total YPG margin. North Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 63 or higher. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Georgia Tech likely played their best game of the season in their win in Blacksburg against the Hokies behind freshman Tobias Oliver who was elevated to the starting quarterback in that game. Some letdown is likely — and this team is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Yellow Jackets won that game despite their rookie attempting only one pass in that game. All 465 of their yards on offense were from their rushing attack — and they outrushed Virginia Tech by +353 yards. But Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Yellow Jackets’ spread triple-option rushing attack does tend to travel — but this is not been a reliable road warrior. Not only has Georgia Tech failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina has been a disappointment this season — but they did enter the season with the hopes to get back to a bowl game after their 3-9 season last year that followed this football team winning nineteen games in their previous two seasons. Playing just their third game at home this year, the Tar Heels are a hidden gem this afternoon. 25* CBB ACC Underdog of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (336) plus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-18 |
Colorado +3.5 v. Arizona |
Top |
34-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (319) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (320). THE SITUATION: Colorado (5-3) has lost three straight games after their devastating 41-34 loss in overtime at home to Oregon State as 24-point favorites last Saturday. Arizona (4-5) snapped their two-game winning streak with a 44-15 upset win over Oregon as a 7-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado was cruising right along last week as a big favorite against the Beavers as they went into halftime with a 24-3 lead which they maintained entering the 4th quarter with the score at 31-10. But the Buffaloes never put Oregon State away who eventually clawed back to score a potential game-winning touchdown with just 30 seconds left in the game — but they missed the extra point which gave Colorado one more chance to win that game in overtime. However, the Buffaloes failed to take advantage of that second-chance as the Beavers scored a touchdown in overtime to steal that game as a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. Colorado may have lost a realistic chance to win the Pac-12 North to play for the Pac-12 Championship but head coach Mike MacIntyre still has plenty of reasons to motivate his team after they missed reaching a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record. The Buffaloes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least 17 points in their last game. And while they generated 536 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.15 Yards-Per-Play, Colorado has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. MacIntyre typically gets the most out of his team in expected close games as the Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. Colorado has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a Friday night. Arizona pulled off their biggest win of the season in the first-year under new head coach Kevin Sumlin — but this inconsistent team may be due for a letdown. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last twelve games after an upset win as a home underdog to a Pac-12 rival. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Wildcats generated 465 yards in that game against the Ducks’ defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Arizona also held the Oregon offense to just 270 total yards which was more than 150 yards below their 421.7 total YPG defensive average which ranks just 90th in the FBS. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 2 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Arizona stays at home where they are 3-2 this season — but they are being outgained by their visitors by -7.8 net YPG. The Wildcats are 3-3 in conference play while outgaining these opponents by +17.1 net YPG — but that is overwhelmed by the Buffaloes who are outgaining their opponents by +47.0 net YPG despite their 2-3 record in Pac-12 pay. Arizona typically underachieves in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: MacIntyre can also play the revenge card in this game after his team was upset by the Wildcats last year by a 45-42 score despite being a 6.5-point favorite at home. Arizona quarterback tore the Buffaloes defense apart by rushing for a whopping 327 yards in that game — but the junior has been slowed down by injuries this season which has limited his dual-threat capabilities. Expect Colorado to avenge that loss — but take the points for some insurance. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Colorado Buffaloes (319) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 62 |
Top |
40-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has won three straight games with their 24-17 win in overtime versus an undefeated Cincinnati team back on October 20th by a 24-17 score as a -2.5-point favorite. Central Florida (7-0) looks to extend their 20-game winning streak coming off their 37-10 win at East Carolina back on October 20th as a -21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights may receive most of their attention because they hold the nation’s longest winning streak in the nation. Their offense also gets plenty of attention since it ranks 5th in the nation in scoring (44.4 PPG) and 6th in the nation in total offense (537.1 total YPG). But the Central Florida defense is not getting enough credit as that unit also ranks 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.1. PPG. And back on their home field, the Knights see that number drop to just 17.5 PPG — and they are limiting their visitors to just 324.0 total YPG. Central Florida has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, Central Florida has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a bye week. Their starting quarterback McKenzie Milton is listed as questionable with head coach Josh Heupel indicating he will be a game-time decision after missing their last game with the Pirates with an ankle injury. Redshirt freshman Darriel Mack struggled to pass the ball in his absence as he only accounted for 69 passing yards — but it looks like Milton will be cleared to play in this game tonight. Regardless, look for the Knights to commit to running the football as they rank 7th in the FBS by averaging 261 rushing YPG. UCF generated 316 yards on the ground without Milton under center which helped them outrush East Carolina by +226 yards. The Knights have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Temple rushed for only 80 yards while giving the Bearcats their first loss of the season. They were without their star rusher, Ryquell Armstead, in that game — and he is questionable for this contest still with his ankle injury. Second-year head coach Geoff Collins is getting outstanding play out of his defense that has steadily improved this season much like last year. The Owls rank 23rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 330.5 total YPG — and that number actually drops to a 300.7 total YPG mark when they are playing on the road. Over their last three games, Temple is holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong play should continue as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. That game with Cincinnati finished Under the 47 point total, the Owls have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total following a game that finished Under the Total — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. On offense, Temple is getting gritty but spotty play from their sophomore quarterback Anthony Russo who won the starting gig earlier this season but is completing only 56.5% of his passes while sporting a subpar 9:10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Owls will lean heavily on their outstanding pass defense that is 18th in the FBS with 24 sacks which has helped them rank 4th in the nation overall by allowing only 147.5 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Because Milton has practiced this week, the Total has shot up to the 60 range after opening in the 56.6 range. Temple’s formula for defeating their second straight unbeaten opponent will be to slow down their offense and grind out a lower-scoring game. While the Owls may not have enough offensive firepower to pull out the upset, except their defense to keep them competitive while avoiding a shootout. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
San Diego State -2 v. Nevada |
Top |
24-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (159) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (160). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (6-1) has won six games in a row with their 16-13 win over San Jose State last Saturday as a 25.5-point favorite. Nevada (4-4) returns home after their 40-22 upset win at Hawai’i last week as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: The Wolf Pack is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Nevada outgained the Warriors by +110 net yards in that win — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games are outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. And while that game finished below the 67 point Total, the Wolf Pack have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Nevada’s “Pack Attack” version of the Air Raid offense generated 481 yards in that game while averaging 7.18 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. The Wolf Pack are facing a significant increase in competition in level of play from a defense tonight as the Aztecs rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 306.9 total YPG. In Nevada’s previous two games at home hosting Fresno State and Boise State, they averaged only 15.0 PPG while generating just 356.5 total YPG which was over 75 yards below their season average. But defense is the bigger concern for this team as they are allowing 32.1 PPG which is 98th in the FBS due mainly to a leaky secondary that is allowing 261.9 passing YPG which is 107th in the nation. This Wolf Pack team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. San Diego State has not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss while they have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Head coach Rocky Long’s team has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Aztecs’ offense has dealt with two challenging injuries with senior quarterback Christian Chapman and junior running back Juwan Washington has been out since September with injuries. Junior quarterback Ryan Agnew completed only 7 passes of his 11 attempts for 86 yards last week while adding another 16 yards — but it is not like Chapman was a gunslinger before his injury. Agnew does offer the offense more of a rushing threat than Chapman does. The Aztecs offense has been successful using a committee of running backs that combined to accumulate 207 yards last week on 47 carries. Sophomore Chase Jasmin has rushed for 460 yards this season after gobbling up 79 yards on 19 carries last week while freshman Chance Bell added another 81 yards on the ground on 15 carries. This is San Diego State’s formula for success — and they are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Aztecs held the Spartans to only 62 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. San Diego State has also turned the ball over once in each of the last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last contest. This Rocky Long recipe has helped his team cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have won twenty-five of their last twenty-nine games in Mountain West Conference play over the last four seasons because of their outstanding defense and a commitment to run the football and not risk turning the ball over. The San Diego State offense will be facing a 3-3-5 defensive formation that they practice against every day. Nevada was likely to bounce-back from their disappointing 3-9 season last year — but this is a football program that has steadily declined from the strong Chris Ault-coached era that concluded in 2012. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (159) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
NC State v. Syracuse UNDER 66 |
Top |
41-51 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). THE SITUATION: NC State (5-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week with their 41-7 loss at Clemson as an +18.5-point underdog. Syracuse (5-2) enters this game coming off a 40-37 win in overtime over North Carolina as a -9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. NC State managed only 297 yards of offense against the Tigers in that game — and they have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wolfpack are scoring 28.7 PPG this season — but the number drops to just 22.0 PPG in their two games on the road so far this year. NC State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on the road. The Wolfpack did allow 471 yards to Clemson in that first loss of the season — but not only have they then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game while also seeing the Under go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. NC State does have a good defense that ranks 31st in the nation by allowing 20.8 PPG. Syracuse has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also seen the Under go 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread setback. The Orange did generate 546 yards of offense in that game that needed overtime to resolve — but they have then see the Under go 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Syracuse allowed 500 yards to the Tar Heels in that contest as well — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Orange stay at home where they are making it difficult for opponents to move the football. Syracuse is allowing only 18.7 PPG in four contests at home. The Under is 11-3-1 in the Orange’s last 15 games home — and this includes the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This Total has risen to the high-60s in large part because of the fast pace that this Syracuse engages in under head coach Dino Babers’s up-tempo system. But the Wolfpack head coach Dave Doreen will be well aware of this dynamic and look to slow the game down when his team has the football. NC State won last year’s meeting with the Orange by a 33-25 score which fell well below the 62.5 total. That was the 5th game finish Under the Total in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
Purdue v. Michigan State +1 |
Top |
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (188) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (187). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after losing their rivalry game at home against Michigan last Saturday by a 21-7 score as a 7.5-point underdog. Purdue (4-3) has won four straight games after their huge 49-20 upset over Ohio State last Saturday night as a 12-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): That was the biggest wins in the first two years in head coach Jeff Brohm’s tenure at Purdue to upset the Buckeyes at home on national television. A letdown for this team is likely. As it is, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. After losing their first three games of the season to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan and Missouri, Purdue has won their last four contests. This team has raced out to fast starts in their last three games with halftime leads of 20-7 at Nebraska followed by a 29-7 lead at Illinois before taking Ohio State to the locker room at halftime with a 14-3 lead last week. But it is difficult to sustain these opening leads — and this Boilermakers team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after leading by double-digits at halftime in three straight games. Purdue is led by quarterback David Blough who is leading an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 337.6 passing YPG. The Boilermakers have averaged at least 328 passing yards in three straight games — and they have generated at least 516 total yards in those contests. But Purdue has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 300 yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games. Blough passed for 378 yards last week against the Ohio State defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. This team goes on the road for just the third time this season after relatively easy trips to Nebraska and Illinois — and it will be challenging to maintain their high level of proficiency in the passing game in the cold Michigan air this afternoon. The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points. Michigan State has lost three times this season which is a disappointment to head coach Mark Dantonio after he returned nineteen starters from last year’s team that finished 10-3 with a 42-17 win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. The Spartans were completely stymied on offense last week against the stout Wolverines defense as they managed only 95 total yards. Junior quarterback Brian Lewerke is out for this game after suffering a shoulder injury — so redshirt freshman Rocky Lombardi will be under center for this game. The 6’3 signal caller has a similar profile as Lewerke with his strong arm and mobility — so I do not expect much of a downgrade in the Michigan State offense. Lombardi will be throwing against a vulnerable Boilermakers’ pass defense that ranks 127th in the nation by allowing 296.4 passing YPG. Purdue allowed 546 yards in their win over the Buckeyes last week — and they rank 103rd in the nation by allowing 433.1 total YPG. The Spartans need to win this game in the trenches by flexing their muscles on defense. After returning nine starters and 86% of the tackles from last year’s unit that finished 7th in the nation by allowing 297.6 total YPG, this year’s group has taken a step back by allowing 355.3 total YPG which is 44th in the FBS. The Michigan State run defense has been outstanding as they second in the nation by allowing only 79.6 rushing YPG — but they are getting torched in the passing game by allowing 275.7 passing YPG which is 116th in the nation. The Sparty pass defense has improved in the last two weeks as they have allowed only 404 combined passing yards in their last two games against Penn State and Michigan. While the secondary has seen an injury to returning starter Josiah Scott at cornerback, Michigan State returned all five starters from their secondary last season so these have been proven players. Expect the Spartans to respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Michigan State has only covered the point spread twice in their seven games this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue has benefitted from both a light and favorable schedule away from home so far this season — and their reliance on their passing attack will be harder to execute as the weather changes. Michigan State has underachieved at home this year — but this remains a talented team that will be angry after last week’s loss to the Wolverines. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (188) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-18 |
Utah v. UCLA +11 |
Top |
41-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (120) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (119). THE SITUATION: UCLA (2-5) has won two straight games with their 31-30 win over Arizona last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Utah (5-2) has won three straight games after their 41-28 win over USC as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: Utah has registered double-digit victories in three straight games against Stanford, Arizona, and USC in a stretch where they have averaged at least 41 PPG. But head coach Kyle Whittingham’s team may be due for a letdown now as a double-digit road favorite — especially against a struggling UCLA team that they crushed by a 48-17 score last season. The Utes are 3-2 in Pac-12 play so far this season — but they are still an unimpressive 31-37 straight-up in their last sixty-eight games against Pac-12 competition over the last seven and a half seasons. Utah did hold the Trojans with their rookie quarterback J.T. Daniels to just 132 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Utes go back on the road where they may have a 2-1 record but they are only outgaining their opponents by +0.4 net YPG. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. UCLA is playing better football in winning their last two games this season. First-year head coach Chip Kelly has cleaned house by removing many of the players he inherited from the bloated and underachieving Jim Mora era. This is now a very young team that Kelly and his staff are coaching up. The improvements are most pronounced on offense where they have scored 34.0 PPG in their last two games while averaging 405.5 total YPG. Kelly got a boost last week with the healthy return of quarterback Wilton Speight who completed 17 of 27 passes for 204 yards with two touchdown passes. The graduate transfer from Michigan may not be mobile but he can operate the Kelly up-tempo offense that emphasizes an efficient passing attack similar to the one that Nick Foles successfully executed for Kelly in his first year with the Philadelphia Eagles. Speight will likely get the start in this game after missing time since the opening game of the season after he took the practice snaps with the first team this week. Freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson is dealing with an arm issue which makes his questionable tonight but Kelly has said he might be under center for parts of this game. The Bruins’ defense has been opportunistic in their last two games as they have forced eight turnovers. UCLA leads the Pac-12 with a +6 turnover margin — and the atmosphere of this nationally televised night game may help coax some mistakes by the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 24 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests, the Bruins have covered the point spread in 16 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Utah is primed for a letdown after three easy victories — especially after the highs of defeating Stanford and USC. Expectations are low for this young Bruins team right now — but there remains talent which makes them dangerous as they continue to develop under Kelly and his coaching staff that have not forgotten how to coach. Lastly, the ability for Kelly to call on their 31-point loss to the Utes last year will surely be a good motivator. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (120) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-18 |
Baylor +14 v. West Virginia |
Top |
14-58 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (113) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (114). THE SITUATION: Baylor (4-3) looks to bounce-back from a 23-17 loss at Texas back on October 13th as a 14-point underdog. West Virginia (5-1) also looks to rebound from a 30-14 upset loss at Iowa State as a -4.5-point favorite two Saturdays.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor should play well tonight as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. While the Bears have lost two of their last three games, they should gain confidence from playing the Longhorns close in Austin in their last game. Matt Ruhle’s team was just 1-11 last year in his first-year as the head coach in Waco. That team has ravaged with injuries — but yet they played much better than their final record indicated as they were only outgained by -40 net YPG despite losing eight of their nine games in Big 12 play. Baylor has a promising quarterback in sophomore Charlie Brewer who is leading an offense that is 11th in the nation by averaging 313.3 passing YPG — and the Bears are 18th in FBS in total offense by averaging 475.0 total YPG. Ruhle’s team is outgaining their opponents by +67.1 net YPG — and they are also outgaining their opponents when playing on the road by +21.3 net YPG. Baylor is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. West Virginia saw their undefeated season go by the wayside in that loss in Ames against the Cyclones which may have ruined their realistic chances of making the College Football Playoffs. The Mountaineers may be angry over that loss while still being galvanized with the fact that they still control their fate to win the Big 12 Conference Championship. But this team has not responded well to setbacks well under eighth-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games after an upset loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eleven of their last thirteen home games coming off an upset loss to a conference rival. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. West Virginia was overwhelmed in that loss to Iowa State as they allowed 498 yards of offense while managing just 152 yards themselves. That is not a good sign for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after being outgained by at least 225 yards. West Virginia’s struggles on offense are likely to continue as they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points. The extra week of rest and preparation in the Holgorsen regime has not served the Mountaineers well either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a bye week. West Virginia has also failed to cover the points spread in their last 4 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Despite everything that went wrong with the Bears last season, Baylor played the Mountaineers tough last year by losing by just a 38-36 score. They were trailing by a 38-13 sore before Ruhle put in Brewer in an attempt to spark the offense — and the freshman QB did by almost leading his team to the comeback victory. That experience should give this entire team confidence tonight — and the extra week Ruhle has had to help his defense scheme against the Holgorsen spread offense. 25* CFB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Baylor Bears (113) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-18 |
Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
38-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-2) enters this game coming off their 22-16 upset loss at Liberty back on October 13th as a 12-point favorite. South Alabama (2-5) looks to build off their 45-7 win over Alabama State as a 27.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This team had a hole to fill at quarterback in the offseason with the graduation of a four-year starter in Brandon Silvers. Junior Kaleb Barker was the top quarterback on the depth chart — but he has suffered a season-ending ACL injury. That leaves head coach Neal Brown to should between sophomore Sawyer Smith and freshman Gunner Watson who have played against the Flames but combined to pass for just 160 yards. Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. This team had to replace their top two running backs from last year in Jordan Chunn and Josh Anderson — top in line was junior Jamarius Henderson who averaged 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry last year but he has suspended indefinitely this season. That is a lot of attrition of offensive talent — and while the Trojans are scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 413.6 total YPG, those numbers drop to 25.0 PPG along with just 338.3 total YPG in their three games on the road. Troy does hold their home hosts to just 22.7 PPG. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games on the road — and this includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Trojans have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games in October overall. South Alabama has also experienced attrition at the quarterback position this season. The losses started in the spring when Dallas Davis left the program two days before the Spring Game. The senior had been the team’s starter in the previous two seasons. Fellow senior Cole Garvin was indefinitely suspended in mid-September leaving the team in the hands of senior Evan Orth who is leading an offense that is 113th in the nation by averaging just 343.0 total YPG. The Jaguars have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a bye week. South Alabama has held their three visiting teams to just 22.7 PPG along with only 343.7 total YPG. The Jaguars defense has not forced a turnover in their last two games — but they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they did not force a turnover while also playing 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not forcing at least one turnover in each of their last two games. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in South Alabama’s last 8 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. With both teams dealing with less than ideal quarterback situations and both coaching staffs having extra time to scheme and prepare for these respective offenses, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
North Texas v. UAB UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
21-29 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). THE SITUATION: North Texas (6-1) has won two straight games coming off their 30-7 win over Southern Mississippi last Saturday as 7-point favorites. UAB (5-1) has won four in a row with their 42-0 shutout win at Rice last week as 17-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers are playing outstanding defense — they have allowed only 14 combined points over their last three games. They held the Owls to just 186 yards last week — and they should continue their strong play on the defensive side of the football. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win of at least three touchdowns against a Conference USA rival. Now this team returns home where they are holding their guests to just 10.3 PPG along with only 265.3 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home field. Additionally, UAB has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total in the month of October. And while the Blazers put up 42 points last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. North Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mean Green also play stout defense as they rank 19th in the FBS by allowing only 17.6 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.0 PPG when they are playing on the road. UNT thrives in stopping the run as they rank 7th in the nation by allowing just 97.0 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 104 and 50 rushing yards respectively in each of their last two games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Mean Green have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Toal after winning two straight games — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Lastly, UNT has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted in the low-50s for this game given the strong offenses both these teams have along with the memory of the 46-43 barn-burner between these two teams last season with the Mean Green pulled out. Both of these defenses are much improved this season — expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
Oregon v. Washington State -2.5 |
Top |
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (368) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). THE SITUATION: Washington State (5-1) returns to the field off a bye week after they crushed Oregon State on the road two Saturdays ago by a 56-37 sore as an 18.5-point favorite. Oregon (5-1) comes off a big 30-27 upset win at Washington in overtime last week as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: That was the biggest win so far in the first-year of new head coach Mario Cristobal at Oregon — but they may be due for a letdown now. The Ducks are just 3-13-1 ATS In their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on their home field. Oregon has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Ducks have benefited from only committing one turnover in each of their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the number set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Washington State (5-1) should build off the momentum of their win two weeks ago. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Washington State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew at quarterback, the Cougars are leading the nation by averaging 413.7 passing YPG. Minshew operating the Mike Leach Air Raid offense should have their way against this Ducks pass defense that is tied for 88th in the nation by allowing 239.0 passing YPG. Oregon allowed Stanford to pass for 327 yards against them — and that is not nearly as potent a passing offense as what they will have to deal with tonight. Experience and depth were concerns for the Ducks a cornerback entering the season — and this is, by far, their biggest test of the season. But what has helped push this football program to the next level has been a significant improvement of play on the defensive side of the football After ranking 16th in the nation last season by holding their opponents to just 323.3 total YPG, the Cougars have improved that number this year as they are holding their opponents to only 313.7 total YPG which ranks 15th in the FBS. Washington State has covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon has started strong with five wins in their first six games — but they have benefited from a sweetheart early schedule that saw five of those games at home. This is the Ducks just second game away from home. Washington State has won nineteen of their last twenty-three games at home over the last four seasons — and they are also a dominant 21-9 straight-up in Pac-12 play in the Leach era going back the last four seasons. Expect their offense to be too for this Oregon team. 25* CFB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (368) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
Oklahoma v. TCU +8 |
Top |
52-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (384) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (383). THE SITUATION: TCU (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 17-14 upset loss to Texas Tech as a 7.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Oklahoma (5-1) takes the field again after their 48-45 upset loss two Saturdays ago to Texas as a 7-point favorite in the Red River Rivalry.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU began the season with College Playoff aspirations after returning perhaps the most talent ever on offense in head coach Gary Patterson’s eighteen seasons with the program. But a difficult schedule and a failure to protect the football has led to three losses so far this season. The Horned Frogs other two losses besides to the Red Raiders were to Ohio State and Texas who have combined to only lose one game this season. In fact, the combined record of those three teams that TCU has lost to is 17-3 this season — yet Patterson’s team entered halftime in leads in all three of those games. Turnovers are killing this team. They have suffered a -9 net turnover margin — they rank 125th in the nation with a -1.5 net turnover margin per game. Facing this Sooners’ team may be just what the doctor ordered as they have only forced five turnovers so far this season. This remains a good Horned Frogs team that is outscoring their opponents by +8.5 PPG while outgaining them by +102.4 net YPG. They have not scored more than 17 points in three straight games but playing at home will help in this game as they are scoring 28.5 PPG while averaging 430 net YPG on their home field. They should play better in this game as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with extra rest and preparation after a game on a Thursday. This extra time will help quarterback Shawn Robinson who has been dealing with a shoulder issue despite completing 26 of 45 passes for 290 yards against Texas Tech in his last game. Additionally, TCU has not covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma saw their perfect season two weeks ago which might serve as a deflating loss. The Sooners defense surrendered 501 yards to the Longhorns in that loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. That loss compelled head coach Lincoln Riley to dismiss defensive coordinator Mike Stoops and elevate defensive line coach Ruffin McNeill to the position. The former Texas Tech defensive coordinator has a large task in front of him with a defensive unit that has finished outside the top-50 four times in the previous six seasons since Stoops returned to the program. Oklahoma ranks 97th in the nation by allowing 421.2 total YPG — and their porous pass defense is giving up 264.3 passing YPG. Until McNeill can improve the fundamentals of his players (like tackling), the Sooners are going to have to outscore their opponents — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they have averaged at least 9.17 and 11.24 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in two straight games. The Sooners have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in expected high scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Don’t be surprised if the TCU defense slows down the Oklahoma offense as that unit ranks 14th in the nation by allowing only 311.8 total YPG. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: After reaching the College Playoffs last year, this Oklahoma team looks fragile with their shaky defense and turmoil regarding the coaching change. While the Horned Frogs have suffered three disappointing losses, the pain of those setbacks would be erased if this team could avenge their two losses to Oklahoma last year including their 41-17 loss to the Sooners last December in the Big 12 Championship Game. Expect a close contest with TCU having a good chance to pull the upset. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (384) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-18 |
Air Force v. UNLV +11.5 |
Top |
41-35 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (310) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (309). THE SITUATION: UNLV (2-4) looks to rebound from a 59-28 loss at Utah State last Saturday as a 27-point underdog. Air Force (2-4) also looks to bounce-back from a 21-17 loss last Friday at San Diego State as an 11-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a crucial game for UNLV in the fourth year under head coach Tony Sanchez. The former Bishop Gorman High School head coach entered this season on the hot seat with a 12-24 record in his first three seasons at UNLV. Fourteen starters returned from last year’s 5-7 team with some junior college transfers added to the mix — but so far the rebels only have wins over UTEP and Prairie Valley A&M on their resume. But there are reasons for optimism for the Rebels tonight. They return home where they are 2-1 with an average winning margin of +7.0 PPG. Sanchez usually is able to get his team to play better after an underwhelming performance as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been an issue as UNLV allowed the Aggies to generate 598 yards of offense a week after allowing 502 yards of offense at home to New Mexico. But the Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight contests. UNLV will benefit from having already played the Lobos who run a similar offense as the Falcons spread rushing attack. The Rebels did a solid job slowing down the run in that game as New Mexico averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry — but it was the passing game of the Lobos that did UNLV as they passed for 250 yards. Air Force is not as potent with their passing attack as I will detail below. Getting off to a better start will be important for the Rebels after Utah State raced out to a 42-0 lead at halftime last week. UNLV has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after trailing by at least two touchdowns in their last game. The Rebels will be without their incumbent starting quarterback Amani Rogers who is still dealing with a foot injury — but sophomore Max Gilliam has been capable in his absence. Gilliam completed 18 of 36 passes for 250 yards with three touchdown passes last week —and his ability to throw downfield may be just what his teams for this match-up against an Air Force team that ranks 76th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 232.2 passing YPG. UNLV did get good injury news this week with their top running back Lexington Thomas was upgraded to probable after he suffered a concussion. Thomas has rushed 552 yards so far this season with six touchdowns. The Rebels are typically dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games getting 7.5 to 10 points. And in their last 11 games played on a Friday night, UNLV is 7-3-1 ATS. Air Force may suffer a hangover after blowing their opportunity to pull off a big upset against the Aztecs as they held a 17-14 lead midway through the 4th quarter. As it is, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last thirteen games after a defeat. Their top quarterback Donald Hammond III is likely out for this game with a serious injury he suffered last week which means that junior Isaiah Sanders will get the start for this game. Sanders is the least effective rushing quarterback on the Falcons’ depth chart but he is the best pure passer of the quarterbacking group. But this Air Force offense is not equipped to put up big yards in their passing game. Sanders is completing only 53.3% of his passes and the 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average is below Hammond’s 8.6 YPA this season. Sanders has thrown 45 of the Falcons’ 88 passes this season but he is responsible for both interceptions this team has seen on offense. Air Force stays on the road for the second straight week where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -6.7 net PPG — and they are being outgained by -53.7 net YPG. Air Force have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Air Force has only committed one turnover in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Lastly, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games in Mountain West Conference play.
FINAL TAKE: Air Force may be flat in this game given their slow start and the disappointing loss last week while UNLV is playing a crucial game to salvage their season. Expect a close game. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the UNLV Rebels (310) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-18 |
Georgia State v. Arkansas State -14 |
Top |
35-51 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (304) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (303). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 35-9 loss at home to Appalachian State last Tuesday as a +10.5-point favorite. Georgia State (2-4) looks to rebound as well from a 37-20 loss at Troy back on October 4th as a 17-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State has lost two straight games after their benchmark loss to the Mountaineers last week which will likely cost them a shot at winning the Sun Belt Conference title. But don’t expect this Red Wolves team to close up shop on this season under fifth-year head coach Blake Anderson. His teams have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a loss. This team is playing better than record suggests — they are outgaining their opponents by +58.5 net YPG. Turnovers have been holding back this team as they are tied for 90th in the FBS by averaging -0.33 turnovers-per-game. It was a -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss to Appalachian State last week. This remains a talented team led by senior quarterback Justice Hansen who leads an offense that is 23rd in the FBS by averaging 283.3 passing YPG. Hansen should have a big game against the inexperienced cornerbacks of the Panthers that are allowing opponents to average 247.3 passing YPG which is 98th in the FBS. The Red Wolves stay at home for this game where they are outgaining their visitors by +136.3 net YPG. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October. Furthermore, the Red Wolves are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games in conference play. Georgia State is struggling on defense are they allowed 554 yards to the Trojans in their last game. The Panthers are 119th in the nation by allowing 491.5 total YPG. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Georgia State is also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference opponents. This was a team that was 7-5 last season but all seven of their wins were against teams with a losing record — and those opponents had a combined record of 16-56. The Panthers returned only eleven starters from that team. This situation has the makings of a blowout when considering that Georgia State is being outscored by -11.9 PPG while being outgained by -125.8 net YPG. The Panthers stay on the road for their second straight game where they are winless in their three games while being outscored by -29.4 PPG. Georgia State is also being outgained by -241.6 total YPG away from home — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This Arkansas State still has bowl game aspirations — and they remain one of the better teams in the Sun Belt despite their bad loss to Appalachian State last week. Expect them to expose this Georgia State team. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPNU Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (304) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-18 |
Colorado v. USC -6.5 |
Top |
20-31 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (156) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (155). THE SITUATION: USC (3-2) returns to the field after a bye week that followed their 24-20 win at Arizona back on September 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Colorado (5-0) remained undefeated last week after their 28-21 win over Arizona State as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in their previous two games as the favorite. Colorado has benefited from an easy schedule as Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, UCLA and then the Sun Devils last week do not have records better than .500 with the Cornhuskers and Bruins still yet to win a game this year. The Buffaloes are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Colorado has helped themselves by not committing a turnover in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games after not committing a turnover in their last game while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not committing a turnover in two straight game. But the Buffaloes did not force a turnover last week either — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 27 games after failing to earn at least one takeaway in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, Colorado goes on the road for just the second time this season. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning their last two games at home. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points. USC responded to two losses at Stanford and Texas by winning two straight games against Pac-12 opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two straight games against conference foes. The Trojans are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. USC has played one of the most difficult sets of games this season — but this team is steadily improving. This team is beginning to enforce their will at the line of scrimmage after rushing for 253 yards against the Wildcats while limiting them to just 98 rushing yards. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. USC has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. This commitment to rushing the football is making things easier for freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels who was an efficient 16 of 24 against Arizona for 197 passing yards. The Trojans have only forced three turnovers this year while never generating more than one turnover in a game. But USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not generating more than one takeaway in at least three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: USC may have two losses — but they are the more battle-tested team. Colorado has benefited from a sweetheart early schedule which has featured only one game away from home. Look for this improving Trojans team to expose the Buffaloes. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the USC Trojans (156) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-18 |
Louisiana Tech -10.5 v. UTSA |
Top |
31-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (163) minus the points versus the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (164). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (3-2) looks to bounce-back from a 28-7 loss at home to UAB as a 7-point favorite last week. UTSA (3-3) has won three straight games after their 20-3 upset win over Rice as a 1-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Skip Holtz’s team has been very reliable coming off disappointing losses. Louisiana Tech has rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Bulldogs have rebounded to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Furthermore, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. This is a good Bulldogs team whose fifteen returning starters last year is the most that Holtz has retained in his tenure in his six years with this program. The offense generated only 258 yards last week against the Blazers — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. The offense is led by junior quarterback J’mar Smith who is the returning starting quarterback in Holtz’s tenure at Louisiana Tech. He is leading an offense that is averaging 260 passing YPG (40th in the FBS) — and he should find success against this Roadrunners defense that is 95th in the nation by allowing opponents to average 244.2 passing YPG. The Bulldogs churned out 417 yards in Death Valley against LSU which was the most any team has gained against the Tigers all season — so this offense should be able to play better tonight. The Louisiana Tech defense is also solid as they are holding their opponents to average -39 YPG below their season average. Overall, the Bulldogs are outgaining their opponents by +58.4 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. UTSA has won three straight games against Texas State, UTEP and then Rice last week — but these three opponents are a combined 0-14 in their other games against FBS opponents. The Roadrunners are doing little to move the football even against this weak opponents. They rank 122nd in the nation by scoring only 19.8 PPG — and they also rank 129th in the FBS by averaging just 250.5 total YPG. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two straight games against conference rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. They only generated 178 yards of offense against the Owls but benefitted from a +4 net turnover margin to help them eke out that game. But UTSA is just 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners defense played well in that upset win as they held the Owls to just 222 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 250 yards while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points. UTSA returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The biggest question for QB Smith entering the season was whether he could improve his passing proficiency to be more in line with past Bulldogs teams under Holtz. Smith has met this challenge this year — the Louisiana Tech offense should be able to generate plenty of points against this Roadrunners defense. Expect the Bulldogs to bounce-back with a decisive win on the road against an overrated UTSA team. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (163) minus the points versus the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (164). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-18 |
South Florida v. Tulsa UNDER 62 |
Top |
25-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Florida Bulls (109) and the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (110). THE SITUATION: South Florida (5-0) remained undefeated last Saturday with their 58-42 win at UMass as a 14-point favorite. Tulsa (1-4) has lost four straight games after their 41-26 loss at Houston last Thursday as a +17.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. South Florida got 302 rushing yards from Jordan Cronkite on just 23 carries in that game — and he will get the ball plenty in this game against a Golden Hurricanes run defense that is 110th in the FBS by allowing 207.4 rushing YPG. This should ensure a running clock for much of this game — the Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. South Florida surrendered 401 passing yards last week to the Minutemen — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last contest. Second-year head coach Charlie Strong will want a better effort from his defense. South Florida has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. The Bulls stay on the road this week where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Tulsa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after two straight losses. The Golden Hurricanes are playing better than their record indicates — they are outgaining their opponents by +16.8 net YPG. But turnovers are doing this team in as they rank 124th in the FBS by averaging -1.4 net turnovers per game. Tulsa turned the ball over three times in their last to the Cougars — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. Fourth-year head coach Philip Montgomery is sitting on a scalding hot seat after this poor start — so he has decided to go young at quarterback by naming Seth Boomer his starter tonight in lieu of an injured Luke Skipper who has been dealing with back issues. The redshirt freshman played against Houston last week — but he lacks the mobility of Skipper and is completing only 41.9% of his passes. The Golden Hurricanes will likely lean heavily on their ground game tonight — especially with Shamari Brooks healthy again and able to join Corey Taylor at running back after he missed last week’s game. Running the football will also protect the Tulsa defense that surrendered 312 rushing yards last week. The Golden Hurricanes have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 rushing yards in their last game. They allowed Houston to average 7.04 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.25 YPP. Despite these recent numbers, this is an improved Golden Hurricanes defense. They are allowing 380.0 total YPG which ranks 68th in the nation — but this is significantly better than the 528.9 total YPG they allowed last season which was 127th in the FBS. Moving forward, Tulsa has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: I considered Tulsa closely in this situation as I expect South Florida to underperform— but with the new QB under center for the Golden Hurricanes, the Under is a stronger play. Both teams will commit to running the football which will help our Under play. 25* CFB Friday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the South Florida Bulls (109) and the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-18 |
Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +11 |
Top |
35-9 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (102) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (3-1) has won three straight games with their 52-7 win over South Alabama back on September 25th. Arkansas State (3-2) looks to rebound from their 28-21 upset loss at Georgia Southern back on September 29th as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State lost the turnover battle against the Eagles in their last game while seeing three of their drives stall after failed 4th down conversion attempts. The Red Wolves outgained Georgia Southern by +82 net yards. Arkansas State has not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Red Wolves have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games coming off a bye week. This is a team returned twelve starters from last year’s group that finished 6-2 in Sun Belt play before losing to Middle Tennessee by just a 35-30 score in the Camellia Bowl. They are led by senior quarterback Justice Hansen who completed 38 of 50 passes for 376 yards against a talented Georgia Southern secondary. Arkansas State is tough at home where they have only lost once in conference play since 2015. The Red Wolves have won seven of their last eight opening games in Sun Belt Conference play on their home field. So far this season, Arkansas State is 2-0 with a +17.0 net PPG scoring margin while outgaining their opponents by +231.5 net YPG. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. Appalachian State has won three straight games after beginning their season with that heartbreaking loss in overtime at Penn State. That high profile game may have the Mountaineers a bit overvalued in this situation — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning three straight games. Appalachian State went into halftime with a convincing 42-7 lead over the Jaguars in their last game but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 17 points in their last game. The Mountaineers’ spread rushing attack has helped them out-rush their last three opponents by +235.7 rushing YPG — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrushing their last three games by at least +125 rushing YPG. Arkansas State will benefit from the extra days of preparation for this unique offense. The Red Wolves did allow 348 rushing yards to Georgia Southern which may be scaring some bettors off. But Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 300 rushing yards.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State’s other loss this season was at Alabama — so we can give them a pass on that one. This is a must-win game for them after losing to Georgia Southern in their last game — but head coach Blake Anderson has a team that can very much win the Sun Belt Conference title. They should play very well in this contest against an Appalachian State team that has not been challenged in games against Charlotte, Gardner Webb, and South Alabama after that game with the Nittany Lions. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (102) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 59 |
Top |
21-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (365) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (366). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (3-1) enters this game coming off a 49-29 win over Toledo last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Nevada (3-2) looks to build off their 28-25 upset win at the Air Force as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have seen the Under go 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Fresno State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs generated 554 yards of offense in that victory over the Rockets — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Fresno State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs are scoring 45.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just a 26.0 PPG scoring average along with 359.5 total YPG in their two games on the road this year. This will be the third game on the road over their last four games for this Fresno State team — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total away from home. The Bulldogs play outstanding defense as they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG — and that latter number drops to just 288.5 total YPG when on the road. Additionally, Fresno State has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Nevada has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. Now this team returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Wolf Pack have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Nevada held the Falcons to just 250 yards of offense in that win — and they limited them to only 3.57 Yards-Per-Play. The Wolfpack have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the game has finished Under the Total 9 times for Nevada.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game than expected between these two Mountain West Conference rivals. 25* CFB ESPN-U Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (365) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
San Diego State +14 v. Boise State |
Top |
19-13 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (353) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (354). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (3-1) takes the field again after their 23-20 win in overtime over Eastern Michigan two Saturdays ago as a 10-point favorite. Boise State (3-1) enters this game coming off a 34-14 win at Wyoming as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State has covered the point spread in 13 of 18 games after a straight-up win. The Aztecs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight victories where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. This team is ravaged with injuries on offense with both starting quarterback Christian Chapman and starting running back Juwan Washington out indefinitely with injuries. But in head coach Rocky Long, we trust — especially when has had an extra week to prepare. Junior Ryan Agnew has been serviceable at quarterback since that Chapman injury about a month ago and the Aztecs always have talent at running back. The defense is the straw that stirs the drink for San Diego State under Long — and they are allowing only 21.5 PPG along with just 337.0 total YPG this season. The Aztecs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the month of October — and they are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Boise State seized a 24-0 lead at halftime last week against the Cowboys — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while they outgained Wyoming by +211 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Despite the aura of their blue turf at their home stadium, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 range. Furthermore, Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs may have injuries — but giving them around two touchdowns in points is simply too much to pass up. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five meetings with San Diego State despite upsetting them last year by a 31-14 score as a 4-point road dog. Expect a close game. 25* CFB ESPN-U Game of the Month with the San Diego State Aztecs (353) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Syracuse v. Pittsburgh +3.5 |
Top |
37-44 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (324) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (323). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 45-14 loss at Central Florida last Saturday as a 13-point underdog. Syracuse (4-1) suffered their first loss of the season with their 27-23 loss at Clemson last week as a 24-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Orange may have a hard time picking themselves up from the mat after that deflating loss to the Tigers considering they had a great opportunity to pull that upset (for the second straight season) with the injury to their new starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Syracuse blew a 16-7 halftime lead. The Orange are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival. Syracuse was dominated in the yardage battle with Clemson outgaining them by a 469 to 311 yardage mark — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after being outgained by at least 125 yards in their last game. The Orange did benefit from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — it was the fifth straight game where they won the turnover battle. That is very difficult to maintain so don’t be surprised if the Regression Gods pay a visit to this Syracuse team. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Moving forward, the Orange are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh, Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Pittsburgh has lost two straight games with that 31-point defeat at the hands of UCF last week. But they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Knights outgained them by a whopping 294 yards in that blowout win, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after being outgained by at least -125 yards in their last game. Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s team has been on the road for their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a two-game road trip. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as the underdog. To connect the dots on the turnover angle for this contest, while the Panthers have only forced one turnover in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight contests. Pitt has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in ACC play.
FINAL TAKE: With Notre Dame on deck, the Panthers need to take care of business in this game. This team did upset a good Georgia Tech team at home earlier in this season — so this is a dangerous team at home. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Panthers (324) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-18 |
Utah State v. BYU -1 |
Top |
45-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (311). THE SITUATION: BYU (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-7 loss at Washington last Saturday as an +18.5-point underdog. Utah State (3-1) has won three straight games after their 42-32 win over Air Force as a 9.5-point favorite back on September 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU should bounce-back with a strong effort against their in-state rival. Not one have the Cougars rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. BYU was stymied by the strong Huskies defense — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars are likely to get two key members of their defense back with linebacker Zayne Anderson and safety Dayan Ghanwoloku returning the to the field. Without those two starters, BYU surrendered 464 yards to Washington — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Aggies passed for 356 yards in that game while averaging 7.89 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP while they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Utah State did give up 323 rushing yards to the Falcons spread triple option attack — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. Head coach Matt Wells team has failed to cover the point spread in a whopping 14 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog of 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: This is a critical game for BYU who need this win to keep them in good shape to become bowl eligible which is the primary goal for this independent that lacks a conference championship opportunity. The Cougars perhaps do not have as much passing for this rivalry as the Aggies — but they will be motivated with revenge from their upset 40-24 loss to Utah State as a small favorite last September. 25* CFB Friday Night ESPN2 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 55 |
Top |
20-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia State Panthers (305) and the Troy Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (2-3) snapped their three-game losing streak last week with their 46-14 win over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Troy (4-1) has won four in a row after their 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Redhawks to just 262 yards of offense. Georgia State held the ball for 38:12 minutes in the game which will they will likely try to use as a blueprint for this game. The Panthers score only 14.5 PPG on the road so far this season while averaging just 330.5 total YPG. Georgia State has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least 20 points. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total. And while Georgia State generated 487 yards of offense last week, they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October. Troy has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They stay at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 340.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 14.5 to 21 points. The Trojans rushed for 282 yards in that win over the Chanticleers last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, Troy has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 to 56 point range. The Trojans have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 20 games in Sun Belt Conference play, the Under is 14-5-1.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a lower scoring game in this conference showdown. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN-U Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia State Panthers (305) and the Troy Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Ohio State v. Penn State OVER 67 |
Top |
27-26 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (4-0) enters this Big Ten showdown coming off a 49-6 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 37.5-point favorite. Penn State (4-0) comes off a 63-24 blowout win at Illinois as a 25.5-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nittany Lions generated 591 yards of offense to eventually overwhelm the Fighting Illini in that contest last week. Penn State has then played 8 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions have played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The concern for the Nittany Lions is on the other side of the football as they allowed a weak Illinois offense produce 411 yards of offense. Penn State surrendered 451 yards of offense to begin the season in their narrow win over Appalachian State that was settled in overtime. The Nittany Lions have played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Buckeyes’ defense flexed their muscles in their win over the Green Wave as they held them to only 263 yards. Ohio State has then played 6 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. On offense, sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins completed 20 of his 23 passes for 304 yards with five touchdown passes last week — and the Buckeyes have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games on the road, Ohio State has played 6 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played a shootout last year Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with dynamic offenses. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Stanford v. Notre Dame -5 |
Top |
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (208) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (207). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-0) remained undefeated this season with their 56-27 win at Wake Forest last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. Stanford (4-0) survived a wild one last week as they rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit at Oregon to force overtime and shock the Ducks by a 38-31 final score as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Cardinal might be due for an emotional letdown after mustering the energy to come from behind to upset Oregon on the road. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. This is the second straight game where the Cardinal will be on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games coming off a game away from home. Frankly, Stanford was getting dominated in that game — until they recovered a fumble that they returned for an 80-yard touchdown which completely changed the tone of that game. The Cardinal did average 7.96 Yards-Per-Play in that win — but they have failed cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. Stanford has also defeated USC and San Diego State this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four in a row. Notre Dame should build off the momentum of their big win on the road last week. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Notre Dame has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game played on the road. Kelly has finally tapped redshirt sophomore Ian Book as his starting quarterback over senior Brandon Wimbush who has struggled with accuracy. Book offers this team a legitimate passing attack as he showed in the Citrus Bowl last year where he completed 14 of 19 passes for 164 yards in their 21-17 victory over LSU. Book completed 25 of 34 passes last week against the Demon Deacons for 325 yards while adding another 43 yards with three touchdowns on the ground. The Irish return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Notre Dame gets their top running back for this game in Dexter Williams who has finished his suspension from the team. Head coach Brian Kelly usually has his team playing well this time of the season. The Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Palo Alto last November 25th against Stanford by a 38-20 score despite being a 3-point favorite. Remember that this loss to close out their regular season was after their deflating 41-8 loss at Miami (FL) in a game that ended both their undefeated season as well as any realistic chance they had to earn a spot in the College Football playoffs. Look for the Fighting Irish to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (208) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Virginia v. NC State UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
21-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 12:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Cavaliers (143) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (144). THE SITUATION: Virginia (3-1) enters this game coming off a dominant 27-3 victory over Louisville last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. NC State (4-0) remained undefeated last season with a 37-20 victory at Marshall as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 214 yards of offense. This strong defensive effort should carry over to this game as Virginia has played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, Virginia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 275 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Louisville by +187 net yards — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Overall, Bronco Mendenhall’s team is limiting their opponents to just 16.7 PPG along with only 297.5 total YPG. But generating points could be an issue for this Virginia team that is playing just their second true road game this year. In their first true road game at Indiana, the Cavaliers managed only 294 yards which resulted in just 16 points. Virginia has played 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. NC State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Dave Doeren’s team is also playing outstanding defense as they are rank 9th in the FBS by allowing only 13.3 PPG. The Wolfpack have surrendered only four touchdowns this season. On offense, NC State generated 502 yards last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow ACC opponents — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. NC State returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: In the last 7 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. With both these teams playing very good on the defensive side of the football, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Cavaliers (143) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-18 |
Memphis v. Tulane +15 |
Top |
24-40 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (106) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (105). Memphis (3-1) looks for their first win in American Athletic Conference play tonight after they defeated South Alabama last week by a 52-35 score. Tulane (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 49-6 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a big 37.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane may look unappealing to many bettors with their lone win being against Nicholls State this season — but head coach Willie Fritz is a great coach who typically gets the most out of his talent. Their opening game loss to Wake Forest was in overtime and they were tied at UAB with ten minutes to go in the 4th quarter before they lost by a touchdown. The Green Wave returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished just 5-7 — but nine of those opponents were bowl eligible and they lost four of those games by 6 points or less. Tulane should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Green Wave are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after failing to score at least a touchdown. Furthermore, Tulane has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing a non-conference opponent. And in Fritz’s last 9 games with this team against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents, the Green Wave are 6-2-1 ATS. Memphis may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Memphis was 10-3 last year while being helped out by a +15 net turnover margin which was 4th best in the FBS. But this year’s team has seen the Regression Gods appear when it comes to turnover as they have a net turnover differential of zero. That could bode trouble for them now playing in a hostile environment. Defense remains an issue for this team as well after they ranked 116th in the FBS by allowing 466.2 total YPG. The Tigers surrendered 467 yards to the Jaguars last week with 360 of those yards being in the air. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 325 passing yards. And while the Tigers rushed for 271 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane is better than their record appears — they should score enough points to at least keep this game interesting while staying within the point spread. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (106) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-18 |
North Carolina v. Miami-FL -17.5 |
Top |
10-47 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (3-1) looks to build off their 31-17 win over Florida International last Saturday as a 26.5-point favorite. North Carolina (1-2) enters this game coming off a 38-35 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels now go back on the road on a short week to play their third game away from home this month. North Carolina is 0-2 on the road this year while being outscored by -14.5 PPG against inferior teams than these Hurricanes in East Carolina and California. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a big underdog in the 17.5 to 21 point range. Defense is an issue for this team after they allowed 31.3 PPG while ranking tied for 98th in the FBS by surrendering 436 total YPG last year. The whispers are getting louder that head coach Larry Fedora is not paying close enough attention to the defensive side of the football. Successful opponents against North Carolina have been able to run the football to keep Fedora’s typical dynamic offense off the field. This season, the Tar Heels are allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry which has resulted in 203 rushing YPG for their opponents along with keeping the UNC offense off the field for 33:51 minutes per game. This defense allowed 213 rushing YPG last season which was 213th in the nation — and they were last in the ACC in run defense. The Tar Heels previous game was a 41-19 loss at East Carolina before they pulled that upset last Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. North Carolina is also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of September. Miami returned seven starters from their good defense last year — and they have been even stingier so far this season as they are allowing only 18.5 PPG while giving up just 223.7 total YPG. They limited the Golden Panthers to just 187 yards of offense last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. On offense, head coach Mark Richt has not declared who is starting quarterback will be despite last year’s starter Malik Rosier being the first under center in all four games this season. But redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry has been dynamic when giving the opportunity to play — and he might get the start tonight after completing 17 of 25 passes for 224 yards with three touchdown passes last week while adding another 32 yards on the ground with his dangerous ability to move the ball with his scrambling ability. But the Miami offense will revolve around their strong one-two punch at running back with Travis Homer and Lorenzo Lingard who have helped this offense average 204 rushing YPG while averaging 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have churned out at least 239 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They dominated FIU last week by +301 net yards — and not only have they then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards but they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Lastly, this team is outscoring their opponents by +25.0 PPG while also outgaining their opponents by +225.5 net YPG — and they have been even more dominant at home in their first two games where they have outscored their opponents +45.5 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +358.5 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Miami should dominate the Tar Heels by using the tried-and-true method of running the football to dominate time of possession. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-18 |
Air Force v. Utah State -9.5 |
Top |
32-42 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). THE SITUATION: Utah State (2-1) looks to build off the mAt 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). THE SITUATION: Utah State (2-1) looks to build off the momentum of their 72-12 win over Tennessee Tech Thursday. Air Force (1-1) takes the field again after having lost week off following their 33-27 loss at Florida Atlantic back on September 8th as an 8-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah State generated 621 yards of offense against their FCS foe last week. While some bettors might discount those numbers given their opponent, I consider this Aggies’ offense to be the best unit that head coach Matt Wells has assembled in his six years with the football program. Redshirt sophomore quarterback took over the starting job midway during last season and displayed a propensity for big-play ability down the stretch to justify him entering this season as the incumbent starter. He validated that faith last week by completing 21 of 26 passes for 236 yards and two touchdown passes last week. Utah State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This Aggies team was just 6-7 last year three of those losses were decided by one scoring possession. If this team could learn to win close games, they would likely be considered one of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. After losing by just a 38-31 score in East Lansing to Michigan State to start the season, Utah State has now lost their last nine games that were decided by just one scoring possession. Eventually, this Aggies team will start winning their share of those games — and this inability to pull out close games right now obscures a team from many bettors that should cover this double-digit point spread tonight. Nine starters along with 84.2% of their tackles from last year returned — and they only allowed 227 yards in their blowout last week. Utah State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 yards. Wells’ team owns a huge field advantage as they are on a 31-9 run at home while outscoring their first two visitors by an average score of 66.5 to 12.5 point margin. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of September. Air Force (1-1) is not likely to bounce-back with a strong effort as they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss. Even with the bye week, this is a difficult assignment for the Falcons playing on the road for the second straight game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after a loss on the road. That now two-loss Owls team outgained Air Force in that game by 152 net yards — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after being outgained by at least 125 yards. Air Force was only 5-7 last year with there being whispers that the talent level is declining on this squad after head coach Troy Calhoun missed out on a bowl for only the second time in his eleven-year coaching tenure. Opposing offenses destroyed them last year when they were in shotgun formation where slow-developing run plays continued to expose the lack of speed on this defense. To compound matters, Calhoun lost his skilled defensive coordinator in Steve Russ who was wooed to the NFL by the Carolina Panthers. The offensive line is also small which puts them at a disadvantage at the better FBS programs. Air Force has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this contest is that Utah State is motivated with revenge after losing last year’s matchup with the Falcons by a 38-35 score on the road. Air Force is on a 51-18 run at home but it is much different story for them on the road. And while the Falcons have their unique spread triple option offense, I am sure that Wells has been practicing against those schemes for at least two weeks since that contest with Tennessee Tech last week was a glorified scrimmage. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month is with the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-18 |
South Alabama v. Memphis OVER 65.5 |
Top |
35-52 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (389) and the Memphis Tigers (390). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (1-2) won their first game of the season last Saturday with their 41-31 win over Texas State as a 10-point favorite. Memphis (2-1) enters this game coming off their 59-22 win over Georgia State as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: South Alabama will be without their senior quarterback Cole Garvin who has been suspended after getting arrested for public intoxication last week. While that may have compelled many bettors to take the Under, the Jaguars’ offense will be just fine under the leadership of another senior in Evan Orth. The former UAB quarterback transferred to the Jaguars when the Blazers abandoned their football team for a few years but was never able to seize the starting job. But he seems to be growing into the position after leading South Alabama to their win over Texas State last week as he completed 24 of 33 passes for 266 yards with two touchdown passed while adding another 21 yards with his legs. Orth is completing 65.6% of his passes while averaging 9.5 Yards-Per-Carry when he tucks the ball to run with it this season. The Jaguars are averaging 26.7 PPG this year which is almost a touchdown more than what they scored last year. This team has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight up win. Furthermore, South Alabama forced three turnovers against the Bobcats — and they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. South Alabama has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. The Jaguars are allowing their opponents to score 38.7 PPG along with 476.3 total YPG — and that is a scary proposition when facing this Memphis team that is scoring 48.7 PPG along with generating 603.0 YPG so far this season. The Tigers have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while Memphis produced 679 yards of offense last week against the Panthers, they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 29 games at home, the Tigers have played 21 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis is huge favorites laying more than 30 points in this game. While the Tigers are going to score their share of points (they may approach the Over by themselves), South Alabama should score their share of points as well. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (389) and the Memphis Tigers (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-18 |
Minnesota v. Maryland -2.5 |
Top |
13-42 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (320) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (319). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-0) won their third straight games last Saturday with their 26-3 win over Miami (OH) as a 14-point favorite. Maryland (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-14 upset loss last week versus Temple as a 15-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Golden Gophers might be primed for a letdown as they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spreadn win. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Now head coach P.J. Fleck’s team goes on the road for the first time this season. This could lead to some harrowing moments for a group that has 59 of their 113 players being true or redshirt freshmen led by starting quarterback Zack Annexstand who is a former walk-on for this team. Yikes — the road may provide a stern reality check for this group that was just 2-7 in Big Ten play last year while getting outgained by -100 YPG. Minnesota is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Big Ten play. Maryland should rebound with a strong effort after their embarrassing loss last week. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by at least 17 points. Furthermore, Maryland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games at home after a loss by at least 17 points Additionally, the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Maryland managed only 195 yards in that loss to the Owls but their offense should play better this afternoon. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: Maryland started the season strong with another upset win over Texas. They took a step back last week — but they are playing well for interim coach Matt Canada who is leading the team during the ongoing controversy they team suffered in their preseason that has resulted in head coach D.J. Durkin being on indefinite leave with the school just ruling that the football team was irresponsible in the handling of their player who died on the practice field. Amidst this emotional backdrop, look for the Terrapins to rebound with a big effort against a very young Golden Gophers group. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Maryland Terrapins (320) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-18 |
Washington State v. USC OVER 50.5 |
Top |
36-39 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (309) and the USC Trojans (310). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) won their third straight game last Saturday with their 59-24 win over Eastern Washington as a 20-point favorite. USC (1-2) has lost two straight games after they lost at Texas last Saturday night by a 37-14 score as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cougars offense under head coach Mike Leach has not missed a beat despite moving on from their graduated quarterback from last year in Luke Falk. Graduate transfer Gardner Minshew came in from East Carolina and has stepped in to continue to run the Washington State Air Raid offense at a high level. He completed 45 of 57 passes for 470 yards last week with two touchdowns. The Cougars are scoring 43.7 PPG while averaging 501.0 total YPG so far this season. Washington State should keep their momentum going on offense as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Washington State has raced out to 18 and 24 point leads in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after holding at least two touchdown leads at halftime in each of their last two games. The Cougars defense has also been stout so far this year as they have held their three opponents to just 229 total YPG — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 total YPG in their last three contests. The Washington State defense was 16th in the nation last year by allowing only 323.3 total YPG — but regression is likely for this team after their outstanding defensive coordinator Alex Grinch left to join the Ohio State defensive staff in the offseason. This defense also lost their elite defensive end in Hercules Mata’afa who took his pass rushing talents to the NFL. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Cougars go back on the road to place their most potent offense so far on their schedule. Washington State has played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog of fewer than 7 points. USC lost their second game in a row with that loss at Texas — but now they return home for the first time in three weeks where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total while also seeing the Over go 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This has been a tough early gauntlet for their true freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels but the former 5-star recruit is showing glimpses of his vast potential. After a tough assignment in Palo Alto against Stanford, Daniels completed 30 of 48 passes for 322 yards in Austin last week against a talented Longhorns defense. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, while USC has only scored 17 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in each of their last two games while also playing 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Lastly, the Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow Pac-12 opponents.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their last two games. Expect a shootout in Los Angeles tonight between these two teams on national television. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (309) and the USC Trojans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-18 |
Tulsa +7 v. Temple |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (304). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss last Saturday against Arkansas State as a 2-point favorite. Temple (1-2) won their first game the season last Saturday in a 35-14 upset win at Maryland as a 15-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa opened their season with an 11-point win over Central Arkansas before losing by a touchdown as a 21-point dog in Austin against Texas. This is a critical contest in head coach Philip Montgomery’s fourth year in Tulsa after they fell plummeted from a 10-3 mark in 2016 to just a 2-10 record last year. Last year’s Golden Hurricanes’ group was better than that record suggests as they played eight teams who reached a bowl game. Tulsa lost five games that came down to the final possession as well — so that final record could have been much better. Fifteen starters return from that group including both quarterbacks in sophomore Luke Skipper and junior Chad President who endured a trial by fire last year. Skipper proved to be the more dangerous weapon last year given his dual-threat capabilities. So far this season, Skipper is completing 61.3% of his passes for 521 yards while adding another 109 rushing yards on the ground. Montgomery should have his team play tough as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread loss. The Golden Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as the underdog. Tulsa suffered from a -2 net turnover margin in that loss to the Red Wolves while forcing only one turnover. But the Golden Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after only forcing one turnover — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last contest. Temple began the year suffering upset losses to Villanova and Buffalo before pulling that trick off themselves as a double-digit underdog against a Big Ten school in the Terrapins. But it might be hasty to assume that all is right again for second-year head coach Geoff Collins. The Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset win by at least two touchdowns on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, inconsistency has been an issue for this Temple team under Collins as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Owls have questions at quarterback with the undisclosed injury to Frank Nutile that kept him out last week. Sophomore Anthony Russo played well in his absence so it is unclear what will happen tonight — especially since Nutile had completed only 52.4% of his passes in his first two games while tossing 4 interceptions. Temple returned only twelve starters from last year’s 7-6 team. Defense has been a staple for this team as of late — and they held Maryland to just 195 yards of offense in that upset win last week. But the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Lastly, Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
FINAL TAKE: With Tulsa coming into this game feisty and with something to prove while Temple being perhaps a bit relieved from last week but with underlying quarterback issues, expect a close game in this American Athletic Conference contest. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-18 |
Ohio State v. TCU +14 |
Top |
40-28 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (204) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (203). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) remained undefeated this season last Saturday when they crushed Rutgers at home by a 52-3 score as a 35-point favorite. TCU (2-0) also remains unscathed this year after they traveled to SMU to defeat the Mustangs by a 42-12 score as a 23.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU entered this season underrated after they went 11-3 last year in a season that culminated with a 39-37 shootout victory over Stanford in the Alamo Bowl. Two of their three losses were to an Oklahoma team that made the College Football Playoff. The offense is led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson who has a similar game to former star Horned Frogs quarterback Trevor Boykin in his ability to generate yardage with a big arm as well as his legs. 18-year head coach Gary Patterson may have the most talent he has ever assembled on offense in his tenure with TCU. But the signature of a Patterson football team is his defense — and this year’s group returns six starters from a unit that was 15th and 19th in the nation by holding teams to just 19.0 PPG and 331.4 total YPG. This group is loaded with speed which will help them slow down the Buckeyes’ spread offense. So far this season, the Horned Frogs have not allowed a Red Zone touchdown. They limited SMU to just 3.36 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. This game is being played fifteen minutes away from TCU’s campus in the Cowboys’ AT&T Stadium in Arlington which will afford the Horned Frogs a big home advantage — and this should make them dangerous underdogs along with their outstanding defense. TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 “home” games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Ohio State may be setting themselves up for a letdown in this significant jump in competition as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win over a Big Ten opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 21 points over a conference rival. This will be the last game the teams plays without their head coach Urban Meyer walking the sidelines after he serves his three-game suspension to begin the season. While I don’t think the loss of Meyer on the sidelines is a big deal with interim head coach Ryan Day doing the game-management, there is no question that the team is better with Meyer serving as the leader of the team. But I do not like the overall vibe with this program after they faced all the distractions and negativity in the offseason. They only return twelve starters from last year’s team that finished 12-2 — and, as usual, much of their lost talent went on to the NFL. Sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins has looked great so far under center — but he has yet to face an elite defense in hostile territory. The Buckeyes have averaged 7.93 and 8.29 Yards-Per-Play against shaky competition to open their season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their first two games. The defensive secondary will be tested in this game — and this is a vulnerable unit that lost cornerback Denzel Ward among a handful of players that took their talents to the NFL. Not only is this group raw but they only ranked 45th in interceptions last year after ranking 4th in the nation in that category in 2016. Last week’s game finished Under the 58.5 point total — but Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games following a game that finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a tough assignment for the Buckeyes to face a team on the road in a hostile environment who boast an outstanding defense. Ohio State may survive but I expect them to have their hands full against a TCU team that I consider a good long shot bet to win the Big 12 and reach the College Football Playoff. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month on the TCU Horned Frogs (204) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-18 |
Rice v. Hawaii OVER 67.5 |
Top |
29-43 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). THE SITUATION: Rice (1-1) is already playing their third game of the season after they lost to Houston last week at home by a 45-27 score as a big 25.5-point underdog. Hawai’i (2-0) is also playing their third game of the year after they upset Navy at home last week by a 59-41 score as a 13.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Rice has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Struggles on the defensive side of the football were expected for this team that lost their top-five tacklers from last year’s unit that was 112th in the nation by allowing 35.8 PPG. The Owls are allowing 36.5 PPG this season along with 480.5 total YPG. But first-year head coach Mike Bloomgren may have his answer at quarterback in senior graduate transfer Shawn Stankavage from Vanderbilt who was showed promise last week by completing 20 of 31 passes for 204 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Rice offense to 443 yards of offense which was more 110 more YPG than what they averaged last season. The Owls now go on the road where they have played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Rice has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when facing a team outside Conference USA. Hawai’i seems right at home back orchestrating their old Run-and-Shoot offense that their head coach Nick Rolovich used to operate for then head coach (and now Hamilton Tiger-Cats head coach) June Jones. The Rainbow Warriors generated 526 yards last week against the Midshipmen defense — and it is like the old days for this team so far this season as they are scoring 51.0 PPG while generating 569.0 total YPG for their unique scheme. Hawai’i has then played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald is loving executing this offense which gives freedom to both the quarterback and the four wide receivers to improvise their routes based off coverage. McDonald completed 30 of 41 passes last week for 428 yards while throwing six touchdown passes with zero interceptions. But the defense remains a work in progress after losing six of their top nine tacklers from a group that allowed 33.9 PPG while ranking 114th in the FBS by allowing 458.8 total YPG. In their first two games this year, Hawai’i is allowing 37.5 PPG while giving up 532.0 total YPG. Moving forward, the Rainbow Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. And in their last 11 games against non-conference opponents, Hawai’i has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With this being the third game for both teams, the offenses should be up-to-speed regarding understanding and operating their schemes. Neither of these teams can stop anybody — so this should be a high-scoring game with Hawai’i likely leading the way. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-18 |
USC v. Stanford -4.5 |
Top |
3-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). THE SITUATION: USC (1-0) enters this game coming off a 43-21 win over UNLV last week as a 24.5-point favorite. Stanford (1-0) also won their opening game of the season with their 31-10 win over San Diego State as a 14-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL MINUS THE POINTS: Stanford’s defense flexed their muscles by holding the Aztecs to only 263 yards of offense. The Cardinal returns six starters from a group that gave up too much yardage but still tied for 34th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.7 PPG. Stanford was 9-5 last year but finished their season with a loss to these Trojans in the Pac-12 Championship Game by a 31-28 score before then losing to TCU in the Alamo Bowl by a 39-37 score. Four of the five losses for the Cardinal last season were by a field goal or less — so they were very close to a very nice season. They return nine starters on offense including junior quarterback K.J. Costello who completed 21 of 31 passes for 332 yards with four touchdown passes. The team is led by senior Bryce Love who is a Heisman Trophy candidate after using for 2118 yards last year despite being hobbled with a host of injuries last season. Love rushed for only 29 yards last week on 18 carries — and Stanford as a team managed only 50 rushing yards but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Cardinal host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. USC has been inconsistent under fourth-year head coach Clay Helton as they are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. Too often, this USC team plays uninspired — and that is a risk against a Cardinal team they defeated twice last year with a 42-24 win on September 9th before following that up in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans finished 11-3 last year after losing to Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl by a 24-7 score. Those eleven wins included a fortunate three net close wins in games decided by one possession. Thirteen starters return but this group lost a lot of talent to the NFL including their QB Sam Darnold who will be starting on Monday for the Jets. USC is relying on a true freshman quarterback in J.T. Daniels — and this will be his first game playing in a hostile environment with it being a nationally televised night game to boot. As it is, the Trojans are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog which includes their last three road games when getting up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Stanford has had this game circled all off-season given their two losses to USC last year. Both those games were away from home. Playing this game in Palo Alto with an experienced quarterback facing a true freshman should make a huge difference this team that is better-coached under David Shaw than the Trojans under Helton. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-08-18 |
Cincinnati v. Miami-OH +1 |
Top |
21-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
23 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-0) began their season by pulling the upset on the road at UCLA last Saturday by a 26-17 score as a 14-point underdog. Miami (OH) (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-28 upset loss at home to Marshall as a 1-point favorite last week. This game will be played at the home of the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium for these neighboring Ohio rivals.
REASONS TO TAKE MIAMI (OH) PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati is likely to experience a letdown after traveling out west to shock the Bruins in the opening game of the Chip Kelly era out there. The Bearcats were actually outgained by -2 yards in that game but controlled the time of possession against the up-tempo Kelly offense by keeping the UCLA defense on the field for 34:21 minutes of that game. But Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati returned 12 starters from last year’s 4-8 squad that was outgained by -77 net YPG in American Athletic Conference play last year. The Bearcats offense was just tied for 110th in the FBS by scoring 20.9 PPG which is perhaps why second-year head coach Luke Fickell decided to tap redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder as his starting quarterback over senior QB Hayden Moore. Ridder completed 13 of 24 passes but managed only 100 passing yards. Cincy lacked game-breakers on offense last year — and generating only 304 yards last week against UCLA did little to alleviate those concerns despite sophomore running back Michael Warren II rushing for 142 yards while needing 35 carries to get there. The Bearcats allowed only 306 yards last week which might speak more to the state of the Bruins’ offense implementing Kelly’s schemes (and their senior transfer quarterback Wilton Speight left that game with an injury) than it did about the quality of their defense. Cincinnati allowed at least 31 points eight times last season while ranking 100th in the nation in 3rd Down defense by allowing opponents to generate first downs in 43.3% of those plays. Moving forward, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I don’t love this team playing away from home for the second straight week — especially with a rookie QB. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field. Miami (OH) should come out inspired as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss at home as the favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of those last four situations. This Warhawks team may be a sleeping giant with sixteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 5-7. Fifth-year head coach Chuck Martin has to see his team through in close games as they are an awful 5-18 in one-possession games in his tenure after last week’s 7-point loss. While it would be wrong to excuse many of the mental mistakes that have cost this team in these close games, the Regression Gods do tend to make appearances for teams that suffer a disproportionate number of losses in close games. This is a better team than their record has indicated over the last few seasons — which is why they might explode with a very nice season before things are said and done. They outgained the Thundering Herd in that loss with their senior QB Gus Ragland completed 25 of 46 passes for 357 yards with three TD passes and no interceptions. The Redhawks rushed for only 87 yards last week despite their top five rushers returning from last year’s team along with Maurice Thomas who missed last year with an injury. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. And despite their disappointing record in one-possession games, they have covered the point spread in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks have a final chip on their shoulder with them being motivated to avenge a 21-17 upset loss to the Bearcats last season as 3.5-point home favorites last September 16th. It will be very easy to Martin to motivate his team this week — and defeating this Cincinnati team will go a long way to make up for the close losses that they have suffered even to begin this season. 25* CFB Non-Conference Revenge Game of the Year Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-18 |
Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State |
Top |
24-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: I am not sure why the Seminoles are being given so much respect that they are laying a touchdown against one of high quality program like Virginia Tech. Jimbo Fisher jumped ship to Texas A&M because in large measure of the financial package the Aggies were offering him to make College Station his home. But I would think that Fisher stays at Florida State if he was encouraged about his team’s prospects moving forward. Only twelve starters return from last year’s team. The Seminoles were snakebite by injuries as they lost 39 games to projected starters being hit with the injury bug including their starting quarterback Deondre Francois. But when do the excuses end for a football program that has won only ten of their last nineteen games in ACC play? The Seminoles lost their usual handful of players from that last year’s group to the NFL. They have hired Willie Taggart to be their head coach after his success at South Florida got him the job at Oregon last year that he abandoned with the Seminoles offer. Taggart is installing new systems on both sides of the football so there will likely be growing pains. He inherits players that were used in a Run-Pass Option offense so these players may have some difficulties moving to Taggart’s up-tempo power spread attack. This is a tricky proposition for a team that is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the moths of September. The defense lost six of their top seven tacklers and return only four starters. Additionally, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover their last three home games with the over/under in that range. The Seminoles are also 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in conference action. Furthermore, Taggart-coached teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 7.5 to 14 point range — and his teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games with the Total in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Virginia Tech returns twelve starters as well on a team that sees 3/4ths of the roster being sophomores or younger. But this young group are Justin Fuente players in his third year in Blacksburg — and teams often make a big jump in the third year of new coach’s tenure. The Hokies still have their rock on defense in defensive coordinator Bud Foster in his 32nd season as a coach. He oversaw a team that ranked 4th in the nation by holding teams to just 14.8 PPG. While it might be too much to ask of this group to replicate that feat, this should once again be an outstanding defense under Foster. The offense is led by sophomore QB Josh Jackson who made 13 starts last year. He passed for 2991 yards last year while posting a nice 20 touchdown passes to 9 interception ratio. A mediocre offensive line made things difficult for him last year — but both he and that line that returns three starters including a 6’7 beast at right tackle in Yoshua Nijman should be improved this year. This will be the first time since moving to Virginia Tech that Fuente will have his starting quarterback back under center. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech may have a ceiling regarding how good their football program can be — but they more consistently come close to hitting that ceiling year-after-year. Florida State seems to have taken a step back — particularly on their offensive line. The Hokies likely have the better defense in this game which should help them keep things very close even on the road. 25* CFB ESPN Game of the Month with the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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