At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Tigers (918) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (917) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Chris Paddack. THE SITUATION: Detroit (52-32) has won two of their last three games after their 10-5 victory against the Twins on Saturday. Minnesota (40-43) had won three games in a row before the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Detroit should build off their momentum as they have 18 of their last 28 games at home after winning their last game. They have won 10 of their last 11 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced at -200 or higher. The Tigers have also won 15 of their last 21 games at home against a team with a losing record. Skubal gets the ball looking to build on his 9-2 record along with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in his 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm how great of a season he is having. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.48 and 2.47 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 2.84. Detroit has won 9 of their last 11 games in his career when he is on the mound and priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. This season, the Tigers have won 9 of his 14 starts by more than one run. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road after allowing ten or more runs in their last game. They have also lost 26 of their last 44 games on the road including eight of their last 13 away from home. The Twins have lost 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. They have also lost 35 of their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They counter with Paddack who has a 3-6 record along with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 16 stars. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander is getting exactly what he deserves given his SIERA and xFIP of 4.64 and 4.68. He has been more effective at home where he has a 3.58 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 — but in his nine starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA along with a 1.34 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 13th and 10th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank fifth in both those categories this month.

FINAL TAKE: The above team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying with this play — but the Tigers have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 19 of their 34 games this season when priced as a -155 or higher money-line favorite (with seven straight-up losses and five games where they won by just one run). Let’s lower the investment price and lay the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Detroit Tigers (918) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (917) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Chris Paddack. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (911) versus the Baltimore Orioles (912) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Pepiot and Tomoyuki Sugano. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (46-35) has won three games in a row and five of their last six contests after their 4-0 win at Kansas City on Thursday. Baltimore (34-46) has lost four of their last five games after their 7-0 loss against Texas on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest teams in MLB this month — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last game. They have also won 6 games in a row after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have won 18 of their last 26 games on the road including their last six games in a row away from home. Pepiot gets the ball looking to build on his 5-6 record along with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.83 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in five starts as opposed to his 3.14 ERA along with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in 11 starts at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season when Pepiot had a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts on the road but a 3.77 ERA in 14 starts at home. He struggled early on this year — but in his last 11 starts, he enjoys a 2.70 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He should pitch well against this Orioles team that ranks 20th in the MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers. Baltimore has been one of the biggest disappointments in MLB this season. The O’s have lost 16 of their last 27 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after a day off. They have also lost 10 of their last 14 games after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. Furthermore, they have lost 5 of their 7 games this season after getting shut out in their last game — and they have lost 7 of their last 11 games at home after getting shut out going back to last season. The Orioles have lost 14 of their last 23 games at home — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games at home when priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Sugano who has a 5-4 record along with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts. The 35-year-old right-hander seems to be extremely fortunate since he is not generating many strikeouts — he has punched out only 50 batters in 83 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are screaming “Regression!”. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.60 and 4.51 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 4.58 — and when these three metrics are all in alignment, I pay attention. He has also been less effective at home in his first season in MLB after years of pitching in Japan. Sugano has a 3.92 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts at home as opposed to his 3.22 ERA along with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in eight starts on the road. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known — or perhaps the book was quickly written against Sugano. In his last seven starts, he has been saddled with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP which is hitting a bullseye for his ERA predictor numbers. He now faces a Rays team that ranks 11th and 10th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 23 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 range. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (911) versus the Baltimore Orioles (912) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Pepiot and Tomoyuki Sugano. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the St. Louis Cardinals (956). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (39-36) had won four games in a row before their 12-5 loss against Minnesota on Thursday. St. Louis (40-35) has won three games in a row after their 8-6 win in Chicago against the White Sox yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have seen at least 11 combined runs scored in seven of their last eight games and nine of their last 12 contests. They have scored at least four runs in six straight games. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 10 or more runs in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Singer gets the ball looking to build on his 7-4 record along with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 14 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some steps back from even those mediocre numbers. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.70 and 4.63 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 4.68. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known since he has been saddled with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in his last eight starts. He has struggled on the road where he has a 5.06 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in seven starts as opposed to his 3.62 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and a .181 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. He faces a tough assignment against this Cardinals team that ranks seventh in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. St. Louis has seen nine or more combined runs scored in four of their last five games — and they have scored 25 combined runs in their last three games. The Cardinals have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They have played 15 of their last 23 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And they have also won 26 of their last 38 games played at night including 12 of those 18 games played at home. They counter with Pallante who has a 4-3 record along with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The right-hander enjoyed a solid start to his campaign — but in his last five starts, he has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has been less effective at home where he has a 5.17 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and a .268 opponent’s batting average in six starts as opposed to his 4.60 ERA along with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in eight starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Pallante had a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 15 appearances at home but a 3.67 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in 14 games on the road. He faces a Reds lineup that ranks fifth and sixth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — and they rank fifth and sixth in those categories since June 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The last time these teams played was on May 1st when the Reds upset the Cardinals in Cincinnati by a 9-1 score despite St. Louis being a -115 money-line road favorite in that game — and the Cards have played 4 straight home games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the St. Louis Cardinals (956). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Arizona (37-34) has won five games in a row after their 8-7 victory at home against the Padres in the opening game of this three-game series. San Diego (38-31) has lost three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS: Arizona is cooking right now with nine victories in their last 12 contests. The season-ending injury to starting pitcher Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery seems to have woken this team up — and they are back in the race to at least vie for a wildcard spot in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also won 6 straight games at home — and they have won 15 of their last 21 home games in June going back to last season. Additionally, Arizona has won 8 of their 11 home games played during the day this season. Kelly gets the ball looking to build on his 6-2 record along with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 14 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.48 and 3.31 moving forward — so he is pitching close to what his frontline numbers suggest. After a slow start to the season, he has posted a 2.13 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his last six starts with 46 strikeouts over those 38 innings — and he has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts across 13 innings with a 0.46 WHIP and 15 strikeouts during that span. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.59 ERA along with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in seven starts as opposed to his 3.79 ERA along with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts on the road. After enduring a down season last year which included being out for a few months with a shoulder injury, he has regained his form from 2022-23 while relying more on his change up and slider as out pitches as the 36-year-old’s velocity on his fastball drops off a bit. He faces a Padres lineup that ranks 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season. They are hitting much better lately either as they rank 23rd and 24th in those categories since May 1st and 25th and 21st since the beginning of June. San Diego is moving in the wrong direction with seven losses in their last ten games. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 22 road games in June going back to last season. They have lost 9 of their last 14 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and they have lost 8 of their last 13 road games played in the afternoon. They counter with Pivetta who has a 6-2 record along with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 3.74 — and that matches exactly what his xFIP projects for the rest of the season. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known since he has been saddled with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in his last eight starts. The right-hander has always been streaky — he posted a 6-12 record with a 4.14 ERA with Boston last season. He has been more effective at home at Petco Park where he owns a 2.40 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in seven starts — but in his six starts on the road, he has a 4.94 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246. In his four starts during the day this season, he has a 4.50 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .240.

FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has a tough assignment pitching against this Diamondbacks team that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has been very consistent as well as they rank fourth in both those categories since May 1st and second and third since the beginning of June. With the Diamondbacks price below my -150 price threshold for featured 25*/20*/10* plays, let’s attack. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (40-29) has won eight of their last nine games after their 6-2 victory in the opening game of this series on Friday. Los Angeles (41-28) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have now scored 29 combined runs in their last four games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They have played 45 of their last 63 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog including 12 of those 16 games this season. Additionally, they have played 28 of their last 34 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range including nine of those 10 games this season. They have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams winning 54-62% of their games. They have also played 22 of their last 30 road games Over the Total against fellow NL West opponents including all four of these games this season. Roupp gets the ball looking to build on his 4-4 record along with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 13 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.01 and 3.79 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 3.50 — so the likely only question is exactly how much he is overachieving right now. He has a great curveball — but his arsenal lacks a complementary pitch and relying on the curve can be hit-or-miss. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.25 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts — but in his eight starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 4.02 ERA along with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .258. He faces this Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers this season — and they continue to lead MLB in those categories since May 1st. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 22 of their last 34 games at home Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 18 of their last 27 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total at home when priced in the -151 to -200 range including six of those eight games this season. They counter with Kershaw who has a 1-0 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in five starts. The deeper sabermetrics do not paint an optimistic picture with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.80 and 4.44 moving forward. His xERA also sits at 4.67 based on his 2025 numbers. In his two starts at home this season, he has been rocked for an 8.31 ERA along with a 1.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306 as compared to his 1.50 ERA along with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in three starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when the southpaw gad a 3.86 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and a .262 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road but a 5.27 ERA along with a 1.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .345 in three starts at home.

FINAL TAKE: Kershaw faces a Giants team that leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (951) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Nick Lodolo and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (24-24) has won four games in a row after their 3-1 win at home against Cleveland yesterday. Pittsburgh (15-32) has lost three games in a row and five of their last six contests after their 1-0 loss at Philadelphia yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati has been reliable in the role of the road favorite — they have won 16 of their last 22 games on the road when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite including four of those five occasions this season. They have also won 13 of their last 17 games against teams who are not winning more than 38% of their games including six of those nine games this season. Lodolo gets the ball with a 3-4 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander has consistently been more effective when pitching away from the Great American Ballpark. While he has struggled with a 6.33 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in four starts at home this season, he has thrived on the road where he enjoys a 1.44 ERA along with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in five starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Lodolo had a 3.56 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .166 in ten starts on the road as opposed to his 6.09 ERA along with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in 11 starts at home. And while Lodolo had a 4.76 ERA last season, both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 3.78 and 3.95 — so his improved numbers this season were forecast from his peripheral numbers last year. Now he faces a Pirates team that ranks 23rd in MLB at home against left-handed pitchers in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 13 of their 16 games this month — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games against fellow National League Central rivals. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 13 of their 22 games at home this season — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games at home when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They have also lost 21 of their last 31 games as an underdog — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (928) versus the Athletics (927) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Texas (16-14) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 15-2 victory in the second game of this series. The Athletics (15-15) had won two games in a row before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas is getting great pitching right now. They have not allowed more than three runs in five straight games. Their bullpen has been rock steady with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. If their bats can continue to wake up, they are going to be tough to beat. The Rangers have won 5 of their last 6 games at home after scoring ten or more runs in their last game. They have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win by eight or more runs, Additionally, they have won 7 of their last 9 home games after winning their last game. Eovaldi gets the ball tonight to make his seventh start of the season. He has a 2-2 record along with a 2.21 ERA and a .074 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his outstanding start as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.59 and 2.62 moving forward. The right-hander is relying less on his four-seam fastball has lost a bit of its oomph and instead uses his splitter and curveball more which are good swing-and-miss pitches for him. The 35-year-old is a crafty veteran who throws four different pitchers to left-handed hitters and five different pitchers to right-handed hitters. Giving up the long-ball has been a problem in the past but he has served up only three gopher balls this season. The 0.74 home runs per nine innings is his lowest since matching that mark in 2021 — and the last time he gave up fewer homer runs was back in 2015. Eovaldi has struck out 38 batters and only issued three walks. His 27.1% strikeout rate is a career-high — and the 2.1% walk-rate is a career-low. He is combining this efficiency with a ground rate of 49.5% of all the batted balls against him. Last season, he was more effective at home for the Rangers where he enjoyed a 3.63 ERA along with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.01 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .251. He faces a slumping Athletics lineup that has not scored more than two runs in two straight games and has failed to score more than three runs in four straight contests. The Athletics have lost 11 of their last 16 games after a loss by eight or more runs — and they have lost 12 of their last 19 games after surrendering 10 or more runs. They counter with Severino who has a 1-3 record along with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in six starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he has been overachieving as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.33 and 4.43 moving forward. After posting a career-high 36.4% strikeout rate in 2021, he only struck out 21.2% of opposing hitters last year. This season, his strikeout rate is a career-low 18.4%. He faces a Rangers team that has won 9 of their 11 games this season at home against right-handed pitchers. The Athletics have lost 11 of their last 17 games as an underdog including six of those nine games on the road. They have lost 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has won 11 of their 15 games at home this season — and they have won 7 straight home games when priced as a money—line favorite at -110 or higher. In their 12 games this season when priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (928) versus the Athletics (927) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (928) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (927) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Ryan Pepiot. THE SITUATION: San Diego (17-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 1-0 loss at home against the Rays in the opening game of this weekend series. Tampa Bay (12-14) has won three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss this season. They have won 12 of their 14 games at home at Petco Park this season — and they have won 49 of their last 78 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher including nine of their 10 games this season. Cease gets the ball tonight looking to improve on his 1-1 record along with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in five starts. His numbers are saddled by one bad start in the minor league ballpark in Sacramento when the Athletics scored nine times against him in four innings. Take away that start and the right-hander has a 3.32 ERA this season. The underlying metrics look good despite the bad start on the road as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.60 and 3.62 moving forward. Last year, Cease enjoyed a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts at home. He had a 14-11 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP last season — and those numbers were validated by his 3.46 SIERA and 3.44 xFIP. In his three starts at home this season, he boasts a 3.31 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234. His walks are down from an 8.9% mark of the batters he faced last season to a 7.9% clip this year. Cease’s strikeouts are up as well — he averaged 9.83 strikeouts per nine innings last year and now is generating 9.96 Ks per nine innings this year. He’s fine. He should thrive against a Rays’ lineup that is hitting only .228 in their last seven games with a .302 on-base percentage and a .668 OPS during that span. Tampa Bay also ranks 20th in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season. The Rays have lost 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 27 games against teams who are winning at least 62% of their games, they have lost 20 of those contests including eight of those 11 games on the road. Pepiot gets the ball for Tampa Bay. he has a 1-3 record this season with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP — and all those starts have been at home at their temporary home at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Having to pitch at a hitter-friendly minor league park may have exposed the right-hander. Last season, Pepiot had a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in his 14 starts at Tropicana Field — but in his 12 starts on the road, those numbers rose to a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229. Both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 3.88 and 4.05 based on his peripheral numbers last season. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast this season which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.69. He has surrendered seven home runs in his last three starts which demonstrates significant concern over him giving up too many hard-hit balls. His change-up has not been as effective as a secondary pitch. He ranks in the 21st percentile with opposing hitters generating a barrel rate on 11.8% of the batted balls against him. Opposing hitters are generating a hard-hit rate in 42.4% of their batted balls against him which ranks in the lowest 38th percentile — and the average exit velocity of 90.2 miles per hour of the batted balls against him is in the lowest-34th percentile.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres have a .275 batting average at home at Petco Park with a .359 on-base percentage and a .790 OPS in their 14 home games this season. They rank seventh in MLB in weighted On-Base Average at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank third in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (928) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (927) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Ryan Pepiot. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (906) versus the Chicago Cubs (905) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: San Diego (13-3) has won four straight games and six of their last seven contests after their 6-0 victory against Colorado on Sunday. Chicago (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 4-2 win in Los Angeles against the Dodgers yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego has already shut out six opponents this season — and they are only giving 1.9 Runs-Per-Game this season. The Padres have won 10 of their 12 games this season after a win in their last game. They have also won 5 straight games after shutting out their previous opponent. San Diego stays at home at Petco Park where they have won all 10 of their games this season. They have also won 9 of their 10 games when proved as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. Cease gets the ball tonight looking to redeem himself from giving up nine runs in four innings of work in the minor league stadium in Sacramento where the Athletics are playing this season. In his two previous starts at home, the right-hander posted a 3.38 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and only three walks in 10 2/3 innings. The underlying metrics look very good despite the bad start on the road as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.39 and 3.33 moving forward. Last year, Cease enjoyed a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts at home. He had a 14-11 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP last season — and those numbers were validated by his 3.46 SIERA and 3.44 xFIP. He faces a Cubs lineup that is hitting only .251 against right-handed pitchers this season along with a .336 On-Base Percentage. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 18 games against teams who are not allowing more than 4.0 Runs-Per-Game. And while the Padres bullpen has a 1.51 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, the Cubs have lost 15 of their last 23 road games against teams with a bullpen ERA no higher than 3.40. Chicago counters with Taillon who has a 1-1 record with a 6.06 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in three starts. In his two starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 6.97 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Last year, Taillon thrived at home where he enjoyed a 2.18 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 15 starts — but in his 13 starts on the road, he posted a 4.58 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265. He had a 3.27 ERA last season — but his SIERA and xFIP rose to 4.29 and 4.16 marks.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres have won all 10 games this season when they were facing a right-handed starting pitcher — and they have a .280 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .780 against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB National League Game of the Month is with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (906) versus the Chicago Cubs (905) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams in Game Four of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: New York (99-70) had won four games in a row before their 7-5 loss in ten innings on the road against the Guardians on Thursday. Cleveland (96-73) had lost the first two games in this series before that victory yesterday to make this a 2-1 series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games at home. Williams gets the ball tonight after posting a disappointing 3-10 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 16 starts in the regular season. The right-hander posted a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16 starts in his rookie campaign last season — but an elbow injury set him back and played a significant role in his sophomore slump. He has not pitched since September 22nd so getting almost the month off may help him regain his rookie form tonight. The deeper sabermetrics suggested he should have seen better results. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.14. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.19 and 4.12 moving forward from his 2024 numbers. Cleveland has played 12 of their 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record with Williams on the mound. They have also played 11 of their 17 games Under the Total with Williams starting in a night game. He faces a Yankees team that ranked 18th in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. New York has played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total on the road. They counter with Gil who had a 15-7 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 29 starts in the regular season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 3.43 ERA in 14 starts as compared to his 3.57 ERA in 15 starts at home. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when Gil is starting against a team winning 54-62% of their games. He faces a Guardians team that ranks 21st and 16th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Both of the starting pitchers tonight will get pulled early if they are not effective — and both bullpens are outstanding. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. New York’s bullpen has a 2.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in their last seven games. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (960) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Walker Buehler in Game Three of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: New York (95-76) has won three of their last four games after evening this series at 1-1 with their 7-3 win on the road. Los Angeles (102-67) had won three games in a row before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 16 of their last 25 games after winning their last game. They return home to Citi Field where they have won 27 of their last 37 games including 12 of their last 14 contests. They have also won 28 of their last 45 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. Furthermore, they have won 14 of their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 34 of their last 47 games at home at night. Severino gets the start tonight after posting an 11-7 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 31 starts in the regular season. He was better at home where he sported a 2.96 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 16 starts as opposed to his 5.00 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in 15 starts on the road. In his last four games at home, he enjoys a 1.57 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Severino’s teams have won 20 of their last 28 home games when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Los Angeles has lost 10 of their last 14 road games after an off-day. They have also lost 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog priced up to +150 — and they have lost 13 of their last 22 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Los Angeles has lost 17 of their last 28 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. The Dodgers counter with Buehler who had a 1-6 record record in the regular season along with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results — but it ain’t great. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.68. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.54 and 4.49 moving forward. So, while those numbers are better, they are still not very flattering as he tries to regain his form prior to Tommy John surgery. He has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.53 ERA along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.60 ERA along with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in nine starts at home. In his lone start in the NLDS, he was hit hard by alloying six runs in five innings of work against San Diego last Monday — and he failed to strike out a batter.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets rank second in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Mets (960) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (959) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Detroit (90-78) had won two games in a row in this best-of-five series before their 5-4 loss at home in Game Four on Thursday. Cleveland (94-71) forced this climactic fifth game with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have only scored ten combined runs in their four games in this series. Detroit has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. The Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games on the road, the Under is 4-0-1. The Total is set at 6 because the likely American League Cy Young Award winner takes the mound in this one. Skubal had an 18-4 record in the regular season with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.92  WHIP in 31 starts. While the deeper sabermetrics rarely project even lower ERAs than ones in that range, his underlying numbers remain quite good. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.70. In his two starts in this postseason, he has not given up an earned run with a 0.62 WHIP. In his last seven starts including his two in these playoffs, the left-hander has a 1.01 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. In those 44 2/3 innings, he has struck out 49 batters and has only issued three walks (not a typo). This game was moved up to the afternoon with rain expected in Cleveland later this evening — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Skubal on the mound for a day game. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after allowing four or more runs in their last game. The Guardians return home where the Under is 14-1-1 in their last 16 games at Progressive Field. Boyd gets the ball after pitching 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in his start in Game Two of this series. In his eight starts in the regular season after coming off the injured list for most of the season, the left-hander has a 2-2 record along with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His xERA was 3.10 in those eight starts. He was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in four starts as opposed to his 3.26 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in four starts on the road. His teams in his career have played 9 of his last 12 starts at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog with him on the mound. Furthermore, Boyd had a 1.74 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in his two starts in the daytime this season. He faces a Tigers team that ranked 28th in MLB in the regular season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: With everything on the line in this fifth game and the off day on Friday, both managers will have full disposal of every pitcher on the roster (including the starting pitchers) for this one — and they will be throwing as hard as possible (now more than ever). Cleveland has played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: New York (96-69) has won three of their last four games after their 3-2 victory on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (89-78) looks to avoid elimination tonight by trailing this best-of-seven series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 10-4-1 in the Yankees’ last 15 games after a win. The Under is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams from the AL Central. Cole gets the ball looking to build on his 8-5 record in the regular season along with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts. He looks to bounce back from a subpar effort in Game One of this series when he allowed four runs (three earned runs) in five innings of work. The right-hander surrendered one earned run or less in four of his last five and seven of their last nine contests. In his last ten starts in the regular season, he had a 2.25 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP to regain his form as one of the best starting pitchers in MLB after dealing with injuries earlier in the year. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with Cole on the mound and the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Cole is making his 16th start in the postseason tonight after posing a 3.07 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in those 91 playoff innings. Kansas City has played 48 of their last 75 games Under the Total after a loss — including eight Unders in their last nine games following a loss. They have played 22 of their last 37 games at home Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. Furthermore, the Royals have played 24 of their last 37 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when listed in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Wacha who has a 13-8 record along with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. After an up-and-down start, the right-hander has posted a 2.72 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP in his last 22 starts in the regular season. He has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.89 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP  in 14 starts as opposed to his 3.78 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Wacha’s teams have played 4 straight Unders when he is their starting pitcher trailing in a playoff series.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have scored 11 runs apiece in the first three games of this series to continue hitting slumps last month. Kansas City ranks 29th and 30th in MLB in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York ranks 18th in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers (after ranking in the top-ten or better in both those categories in every prior month for the rest of the season). 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (96-69) looks to avoid elimination and force a decisive fifth game in this best-of-five series after losing Game Three by a 7-2 score on Tuesday. New York (93-75) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 27 of their last 44 games Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. They turn to Suarez for Game Four -- he has a 12-8 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 27 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.96 and 3.70 moving forward. In his six starts during the day, he has a 4.96 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has struggled in the second half of the season as he dealt with a back injury. In his last 11 starts, he had a 6.53 ERA and a 2.24 WHIP — and in his last four starts, he was saddled with a 7.80 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. He faces a Mets team that ranks third in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They counter with Quintana who has a 10-10 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 31 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.49. Both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA at 4.06 and 3.92 moving forward. The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound. They have also played 22 of their last 36 games at home at Citi Field Over the Total. The left-hander faces a Phillies team that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 36 of their last 53 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB National League East Playoffs Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (904) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) listing both starting pitchers Michael King and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: San Diego (96-70) has won three of their last four games after their 10-2 win on the road against the Dodgers on Sunday to even this best-of-seven series at 1-1. Los Angeles (99-65) had won six games in a row before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego returns home with momentum given their opportunity to win this series in the next two days at Petco Park. The Padres have won 16 of their last 24 games after an off day. They have also won 23 of their last 37 games at home. They turn to King who has a 13-9 record along with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 31 games (30 starts). In his last seven starts at home — including his seven scoreless innings of work last Tuesday in Game One of the National League Wildcard round at home against Atlanta — the right-hander has a 1.47 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP with 59 strikeouts in those 43 innings. He has not given up more than two earned runs in those last seven starts at home. San Diego has won 12 of their last 18 games when King is on the mound looking to extend a winning streak for the team. Los Angeles has lost 9 of their last 13 road games after an off day. They have also lost 11 of their last 16 games as an underdog -- and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games when listed as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. The Dodgers counter with Buehler who has a 1-6 record along with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results — but it ain’t great. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.68. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.54 and 4.49 moving forward. So, while those numbers are better, they are still not very flattering as he tries to regain his form prior to Tommy John surgery. He has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.53 ERA along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.60 ERA along with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in nine starts at home. He faces a Padres team that ranks seventh and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rise to second in MLB in both those categories since September 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are outscoring their opponents by +0.9 Runs-Per-Game — but San Diego has won 41 of their last 65 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (904) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) listing both starting pitchers Michael King and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (968) versus the Kansas City Royals (967) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Cole Ragans. THE SITUATION: New York (95-68) has won two games in a row after their 6-5 win at home against the Royals in the opening game of this series on Saturday. Kansas City (88-77) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Royals are probably not as good as their .533 winning percentage suggests. Sharing a division with the hapless Chicago White Sox allowed them to get 13 games against them this season — and they won 12 of those contests. Take away that 12-1 mark against the CrySox and Kansas City is simply a .500 team with a 76-76 record. The Royals have lost 51 of their 90 games against teams with a winning record this season. They have lost 26 of their last 43 road games against teams with a winning record. They have lost 26 of their last 39 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Additionally, they have lost 31 of their last 52 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 23 of their last 35 road games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They send out Ragans who has an 11-9 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 32 starts. He may be overachieving a bit. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.49 and 3.46 moving forward. He’s still really good — but I don’t love this spot for him pitching in Yankee Stadium in the postseason. His ERA rises to a 3.57 mark in his 21 starts at night. His teams have lost 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog with Ragans as their starting pitcher. He faces a Yankees team that ranks fifth and third in MB since August 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has won 25 of their last 32 games against AL Central opponents — and just five of those six wins came against the CrySox against which they had a 5-1 record. They have also won 14 of their last 16 games at home against AL Central foes. They counter with Rodon who has a 16-9 record along with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last five starts, the left-hander has a 2.20 ERA along with a 1.087 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202. He has 34 strikeouts and just 10 walks in those 28 2/3 innings of work. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.11 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 14 starts as compared to his 4.69 ERA along with a 1.34 WHIP and a .261 opponent’s batting average in 18 starts on the road this season. He faces a Royals team that ranks 22nd in MLNB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have won 52 of their last 81 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 22 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. 25* MLB Divisional Playoff Round Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Yankees (968) versus the Kansas City Royals (967) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Cole Ragans. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (962) versus the New York Mets (961) listing both starting pitchers Cristopher Sanchez and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (95-67) has lost three of their last four games after their 6-2 loss at home to the Mets in the opening game of this best-of-five series. New York (91-74) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia blew a 1-0 lead in the eighth inning yesterday despite going into that game as a -180 or so money-line favorite. The Phillies blew a great effort by starting pitcher Zack Wheeler — but they should bounce back this afternoon. Philadelphia has won 13 of their last 16 games after getting upset by a fellow NL East rival in their last contest — and they have won 8 straight games when playing at home under those circumstances. The Phillies have still won 53 of their last 77 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 24 of their last 37 home games when listed as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Sanchez gets the start in Game Two over Aaron Nola due to his success against the Mets this season according to manager Rob Thomson. The left-hander has a 1-0 record with a 3.06 ERA in three starts against them this season. For the year, Sanchez has an 11-9 record with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 31 starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his strong season. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.51. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.58 and 3.31 moving toward. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.21 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 17 starts as opposed to his 5.02 ERA along with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .307 in 14 starts on the road. The Phillies have won 11 of their last 16 home games with Sanchez on the hill priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range. New York has lost 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset win as a road underdog in their last game. Severino gets the ball after giving up four earned in six innings in Game One of their wildcard series with Atlanta on Tuesday. In his 31 starts in the regular season, the right-hander had an 11-7 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.22 and 4.12 moving forward. Severino is at his best at home where he has a 2.96 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.00 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in 15 starts on the road. The Mets have lost 24 of their last 33 road games with Severino on the mound when priced as an underdog up to +150. Furthermore, Severino has a 5.07 ERA in his 49 2/3 innings in the postseason — and his xFIP sits at 5.00 in those playoff appearances. He faces a Phillies team that ranks third and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank fourth and fifth in those categories since September 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have won 16 of their last 24 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB National League East Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (962) versus the New York Mets (961) listing both starting pitchers Cristopher Sanchez and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-69) completed their two-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves in the wildcard round of the MLB playoffs with a 5-4 victory on Wednesday. Los Angeles (98-64) has won five games in a row to conclude their regular season after a 2-1 win at Colorado last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games after winning their previous contest. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have played 44 of their last 70 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Over is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games at home. They have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. They have also played 37 of their last 60 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Yamamoto gets the ball tonight with a 7-2 record along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 18 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.44. He has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in ten starts as compared to his 2.06 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total with Yamamoto on the mound. He faces a Padres team that ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has played 24 of their last 40 games Over the Total as an underdog. They counter with Cease who has a 14-11 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts. He has been at his best at home at Petco Park where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.83 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks third and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 32 of their last 51 home games Over the Total against teams using a right-handed pitcher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NL West rivals. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (94-70) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 5-3 victory at home against the Mets to force this decisive third game in this best-of-three series. New York (90-74) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Brewers are tough to beat at home — they have won 34 of their last 53 games at home when listed as a -110 or higher money-line favorite. They have also won 19 of their last 29 home games when listed as a favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. They send out Myers who has a 9-6 record along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The rookie right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.86 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in 13 games (12 starts) as opposed to his 3.15 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 14 games (13 starts) on the road. Myers is very steady relying primarily on his slider and change-up — he has not allowed more than two earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts. In his last 20 starts going back to June, he sports a 2.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His last outing was against this Mets team where he only allowed one hit and no earned runs in four innings of work. The Brewers have won 6 of their last 8 home games when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Myers faces a Mets team that ranks 29th in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. He will be supported by an outstanding bullpen -- led by closer Devin Williams --that has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. In the last seven games, the Milwaukee bullpen has a 2.23 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP with three saves and no blown saves. New York, on the other hand, has a tired bullpen that has thrown 11 1/3 innings since Monday given their doubleheader with Atlanta. In their last seven games, they have not registered a save while blowing two saves after Phil Maton gave up four hits and three earned runs in the bottom of the eighth inning last night when the Mets blew a 3-2 lead. Their bullpen has a 5.91 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in their last seven games. New York has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 28 of their last 45 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Quintana who has a 10-10 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 31 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.49. He gave up five hits and two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against this Brewers club. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.64 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and a .232 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 16 starts on the road. The Mets have lost 6 of their 8 road games this season with Quintana on the mound listed as a +/- 125 price range. Quintanta’s teams have also lost 6 of their 8 playoff games when he makes the start. He faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has won 22 of their last 36 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 52 of their last 90 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year is with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (919) and the Milwaukee Brewers (920) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: New York (90-73) has won three of their last four games after taking the opening game of this best-of-three wildcard series with their 8-4 victory. Milwaukee (93-70) has lost two games in a row as they try to keep their season alive.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not giving up more than four runs in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 26 of their last 41 road games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Brewers are outscoring their opponents by +0.8 Runs-Per-Game, New York has played 18 of their last 29 road games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more RPG. Manaea takes the mound with his 12-6 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 32 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.75. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.97 and a 4.04 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 16 starts on the road. Interestingly, his xFIP at home is 3.34  but that mark rises to a 4.77 xFIP when he is pitching on the road. He has a K%-BB% rate of 21.3% when pitching at home — but that ratio drops to just 11.6% when on the road. Manaea pitched better in the second half of the season after he adopted Chris Sale’s arm angle in his delivery. But in his last start of the regular season, he got hit hard — and it was against this Brewers team that had great success against his best pitch which is his sinker. Milwaukee scored six runs against him (five earned) in 3 2/3 innings while banging out seven hits against him. Manaea has only pitched 3 1/3 innings in the postseason — but he has been rocked for a 24.30 ERA in those appearances. His teams have played 20 of their last 33 road games Over the Total when he is on the mound as an underdog up to +150. He faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 43-31-8 in their last 81 games at home. They counter with Montas who has a 7-11 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 30 starts. His xERA only drops slightly to 4.71 — so he is not a regression candidate. He has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 4.95 ERA along with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in 14 starts as opposed to his 4.75 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 16 starts on the road. He has only pitched one inning in the postseason in his career. He faces a Mets team that ranks 11th and 15th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won the last two meetings between these two teams — and Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB National League Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (919) and the Milwaukee Brewers (920) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (973) and the Oakland A’s (974) listing both starting pitchers Cody Bradford and Brady Basso. THE SITUATION: Texas (74-83) has lost four of their last five games after their 5-4 loss on the road against the A’s last night. Oakland (68-89) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have surrendered at least five runs in four straight games as well as eight of their last ten contests. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after losing their previous game. The Over is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 38-46% range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in that 38-46% range. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. Bradford gets the ball looking to build on his 6-3 record along with a 3.59 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts). The deeper sabermetrics suggest he has been overachieving a bit. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.72 and 3.81 moving forward. He has been at his best at home, he enjoys a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 — but in his four games on the road, he has been saddled with an 8.10 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310. The last time he pitched away from Globe Life Field, Bradford got rocked in Arizona for eight runs in just 3 2/3 innings. He faces an A’s team that ranks 11th in MLB at home in weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitchers. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home. They counter with Basso who has a 1-0 record with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings from six appearances which includes three starts. Two of his three starts have been against the Chicago White Sox — and his third was against Detroit, so he has faced a very favorable schedule in his first three professional starts. He relies on four pitches with his change-up the least used after his curveball and slider. His four-seamer only hits 93 miles per hour -- and the deeper analytics suggest he has overachieved with it so far. In his 67 2/3 innings in Triple-A in the summer, he had a 4-3 record along with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. While his xFIP lowers to 4.26 during that span, that is not an encouraging number when now having this Rangers team that ranks eighth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 15 of their last 20 games in September Over the Total — and Oakland has played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (973) and the Oakland A’s (974) listing both starting pitchers Cody Bradford and Brady Basso. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (85-71) has won two games in a row after their 5-4 win at Miami on Sunday. New York (87-69) has won six of their last seven games after a 2-1 victory against Philadelphia on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This Atlanta team is looking more and more like the one in 2021 that won the World Series despite being ravaged by injuries that started with Ronald Acuna. The slugger is out the season again this year along with starting pitcher Spencer Strider — but the Braves are still competing and finding ways to get victories. They have a great pitching staff that ranks second in MLB behind Seattle (by one run) in runs allowed. Their bullpen has a 3.31 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP which ranks third and fifth in MLB. Their hitting may be down for the season but they still rank tied for fourth in home runs — and dingers are what win clutch games in September and October. Atlanta is 1 1/2 games behind Arizona for the third wildcard spot in the National League — and they are two games behind the Mets for the second wildcard spot, so this game is crucial for them. The Braves have won 11 of their last 16 games after a win by just one run — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games at home after winning their last game by one run. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they have won 39 of their last 68 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have also won 10 of their last 12 home games after playing three or more games on the road. And while the Mets are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 Runs-Per-Game, Atlanta has won 15 of their last 23 home games against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. Schwellenbach gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 7-7 record along with his 3.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish on the rookie.  His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.45. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.38 and 3.35 moving forward. In his last 13 starts since the beginning of July, the right-hander has a 2.77 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He faces a Mets team that ranks 25th in MLB since August 1st in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. New York will once again be without shortstop Francisco Lindor who continues to nurse a back injury that will keep him out for an eighth straight game. Lindor has been so good this summer that he has made it, not a slam dunk that Shohei Ohtani would win the National League Most Valuable Player Award. The Mets have lost 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a win by one run against an NL East rival. They have also lost 3 of their last 4 games on the road after pulling off an upset win against a divisional rival. Additionally, they have lost 25 of their last 42 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Severino who has an 11-6 record with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 30 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.26 and 4.16 moving forward. In his last 14 starts since the beginning of July, the right-hander has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.96 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and a .231 opponent’s batting average in 16 starts — but in his 14 starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 4.80 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP and a .248 opponent’s batting average. The Mets have lost 23 of their last 31 road games with Severino on the mound priced as a money-line underdog up to +150. He faces a Braves lineup that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in his last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .348 on-base percentage and an OPS of .907.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 13 of their last 19 games at home against the Mets. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (954) listing both starting pitchers Hayden Birdsong and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (77-79) has won four games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 2-0 win at Kansas City on Sunday. Arizona (87-69) has lost two games in a row after their 10-9 loss at Milwaukee yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Birdsong gets the ball looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.67 ERA along with a 1.37 WHIP in six starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.55 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his eight starts on the road. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks first and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in both those categories since July 1st and August 1st. Arizona has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run — and they have played 6 straight games at home after losing their previous game by only one run. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. They counter with Rodriguez who has a 3-3 record in eight starts along with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 5.32. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.05 ERA along with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in four starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants club that ranks 11th and 13th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 30 of their last 44 games Over the Total against NL West rivals — and San Francisco has played 29 of their last 49 divisional games Over the Total. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (954) listing both starting pitchers Hayden Birdsong and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (968) versus the Detroit Tigers (967) listing both starting pitchers Cole Ragans and Casey Mike. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (82-69) has lost two games in a row after their 7-6 loss at home to the Tigers in the opening game of this series on Monday. Detroit (78-73) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Kansas City should rebound tonight as they have won 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by one run. They have also won 22 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 27 of their last 43 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Ragans gets the ball looking to build on his 11-9 record along with his 3.32 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 30 starts. The left-hander’s deeper sabermetrics confirm his outstanding season. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.38. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.42 moving forward. In his last two starts, he sports a 1.50 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Ragans’ teams have won 9 of his 13 starts when they were priced as a money-line favorite up to -150 — and his teams have won five of their seven games at home when he is starting at home in those circumstances. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 27th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. Detroit has lost 6 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win against a fellow AL Central rival. They have lost 21 of their last 32 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road against teams winning 54% to 62% of their games. They have also lost 27 of their last 41 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. The Tigers are playing good baseball right now — but handicapping this sport requires a focus on the starting pitchers where the Royals have a big edge tonight. Mize has a 2-6 record along with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander missed almost the entire month of August to an injury — and he has not been in good form since his return on August 30th. In his three starts since, he has been saddled by a 5.63 ERA. His velocity is down on his peak 95 to 96 miles per hour four-seamer — and that really exposes his lack of reliable secondary pitches. His slider has been off all season. He lacks an effective cutter or change-up. His splitter is meh. Despite being a former number-one draft choice, Mize is a JAG (just a guy) who is at his best when he is getting the most out of his fastball. His xERA sits at 4.73 for the season. He has also been more effective at home where he owns a 4.02 ERA along with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in ten starts — but in his nine starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 5.05 ERA along with a 1.61 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306. He also has a 5.84 ERA along with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in eight starts at night. Detroit has lost 8 of their last 11 road games with Mize on the mound facing a team that is winning 54% to 62% of their games. He faces a Royals squad that ranks fifth and 11th this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has won 18 of their last 24 home games against fellow AL Central rivals — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (968) versus the Detroit Tigers (967) listing both starting pitchers Cole Ragans and Casey Mize. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (969) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Joey Estes. THE SITUATION: Houston (77-67) has lost five of their last seven games after their 4-3 loss at home to the A’s in the opening game of this series. Oakland (63-82) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Despite the recent slide, Houston has gone on a 71-48 run since their rough 6-19 start to the season. The Astros have won 7 of their last 10 games at home after a loss by one run. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs. Additionally, they have won 9 of their last 13 games at home. They have also won 24 of their 32 games this season at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have won 9 of their 11 games this season when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. Brown gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 11-7 record with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 28 games (27 starts). The right-hander struggled mightily in April with an 11.84 ERA and a 2.37 WHIP in five starts. He adjusted by using his sinker more which has always been a little-used part of his arsenal. With five reliable pitches, he began throwing his four-seam fastball less and taking a kitchen sink approach from game-to-game based on matchups and what pitch is working the best. His best pitch remains his splitter. Since the beginning of May in his last 22 games (21 starts), Brown has a 2.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.26. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.78 and 3.52 moving forward — and that includes the garbage data from April. The Astros have won 8 of their last 10 games when Brown is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. Oakland has lost four of their last six games — and they have lost 43 of their last 70 road games as an underdog this season. They have also lost 39 of their 62 games after winning their previous game this season — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games after a win. They counter with Estes who has a 6-7 record along with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 21 games (21 starts). Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.86 and 5.11 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.74 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .199 — but those numbers rise to a 6.66 ERA along with a 1.48 WHIP and a .286 opponent’s batting average in 11 games (10 starts) on the road. The A’s have lost 5 of their last 6 games when following a win with Estes is on the hill. They have also lost 9 of their last 11 games when Estes is their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces an Astros team that ranks fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. Houston has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 20 of their 39 games this season when priced higher than my -150 price threshold for taking money-line sides straight up — they have gotten upset in 11 of those games and won by just one run eight times. But in their last 25 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 15 times with five upset losses and five wins by just one run. Admittedly, the A’s have been playing solid baseball this summer — but in their last 14 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +185 or higher, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 10 of those games with three upset victories and one loss by one-run accounting for the other four games. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (970) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (969) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Joey Estes. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (978) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (977) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Bailey Falter. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (76-58) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 7-5 victory against Kansas City on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (62-71) has lost three games in a row after their 14-10 loss at home to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has struggled a bit lately — but they have still won 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last game. They have also won 12 of their last 18 games after an off day. Additionally, the Guardians have 38 of their last 59 games at home at Progressive Field. They have won 52 of their 81 games when favored this season — and they have won 13 of their last 19 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -120 or higher. Lively gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 11-8 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.34 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.90 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in 12 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his solid season. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.89 which is a slight drop from his current ERA but still a solid number. He should pitch well against this Pirates team that ranks 27th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank just 26th in those categories in the last month in those categories since July 29th. Pittsburgh has lost 12 of their last 16 games after losing their last game. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. They have lost 12 of their last 16 games after an off day. Furthermore, the Pirates have lost 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 15 of their last 17 games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Falter who has a 6-7 record along with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 22 starts. His xERA drops to 5.11. Additionally, both his SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.81 and 4.65 moving forward. The Regression Gods may already making their presence felt. In his first ten starts through the month of May, the left-hander enjoyed a 2.54 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. In his last 11 starts since the beginning of June, Falter has a 5.63 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. In his last three starts, it has been even worse with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. And while he has a 4.08 ERA in 11 starts at home this season, his ERA rises to 4.42 in his 11 starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Guardians rank ninth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank ninth and sixth in those categories in the last month since July 29th. I’m pleasantly surprised to see the money-line price for this game drop and remain stabilized below my -150 threshold after the overnight light was in the -175 range. Let’s attack. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cleveland Guardians (978) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (977) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Bailey Falter. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the Kansas City Royals (917) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Brady Singer. THE SITUATION: Houston (71-62) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 10-0 win at Philadelphia yesterday. Kansas City (75-59) had won three games in a row before their 7-5 loss at home to Cleveland on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has now won 14 of their last 21 games — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games following a win. They have also won 9 of their last 10 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, they have won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. They have faced a difficult stretch recently with a three-game series at home against Boston before a seven-game road trip in Baltimore and Philadelphia. But now the Astros come back home to Minute Maid Park where they have won 28 of their last 45 games. Brown gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 11-7 record along with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.32 WHIp in 26 games (25 starts). The right-hander struggled in April — but his increased use of his sinker has helped bolster his kitchen sink approach. He has an outstanding cutter — and he mixes and matches that pitch with four other pitches that he varies in usage from start to start. It may be an unconventional approach — but it is working. In his last 17 starts, Brown has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his strong numbers. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.39. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.72 and 3.51 moving forward. Brown has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.42 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts as opposed to his 4.00 ERA along with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in his 14 appearances on the road. He faces a Royals team that ranks 24th and 21st this season in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Kansas City is one of the big surprises in MLB this season — but somebody has to beat all these mediocre AL Central teams. The Royals have a 29-14 record against division rivals — and it all starts with their 12-1 mark against the historically bad Chicago White Sox. They just got through with a slumping Guardians team that has lost nine of 13 and 16 of their last 25 contests. Kanas City is just 46-45 against teams outside the AL Central. They have also lost 13 of their last 18 games against non-division opponents as a money-line underdog priced at +115 or higher. They counter with Singer who has a 9-9 record along with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 26 starts. His xERA rises to 4.47 which is a red flag for the right-hander. Perhaps the Regression Gods are already making their presence felt since he has a 1-3 record along with a 6.23 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .359 in four starts this month. And while he enjoys a 2.88 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 14 starts at home at Kauffman Stadium, those numbers rise to a 4.04 ERA along with a 1.44 WHIP and a .285 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road. He faces an Astros team that ranks eighth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 9 of their last 11 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -120 or higher. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the Kansas City Royals (917) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Brady Singer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (907) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (73-52) is on a six-game winning streak after their 3-2 win on the road against the Cardinals last night. St. Louis (61-64) has lost seven of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than four runs in their last game. They have also won 10 of their last 13 games on the road with four straight victories away from home. They have also won 24 of their last 39 games on the road as an underdog. Myers takes the mound tonight looking to build on his 6-5 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-handed pitcher has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.57 ERA in ten starts as compared to his 3.04 ERA in nine starts at home. Myers' pitch-to-contact style has been particularly effective since the beginning of June. The rookie sports a 1.86 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last 12 starts. He should pitch well against this Cardinals team that ranks 17th and 13th this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they drop to 21st and 18th in those categories in the last month since July 20th. St. Louis is reeling as they have now fallen three games under .500. The Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games at home. They counter with Gibson who has a 7-5 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 23 starts. Gibson's expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.96. The Regression Gods may have already made their presence felt as the veteran right-hander has been saddled with a 6.24 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in his last nine starts. And while he has a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.11 WHIP and a .212 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.73 ERA along with a 1.63 WHIP and a .301 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts at home. He faces a Brewers team that ranks fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rise to fourth and third in those categories in the last month since July 20th.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is now 12 games ahead of the Cardinals with much of that lead coming from their head-to-head play. The Brewers have beaten them in 9 of their last 10 meetings — and they have won 5 straight games on the road against them at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. 25* MLB National League Central Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (907) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (965) versus the Detroit Tigers (966) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Tarik Skubal. THE SITUATION: New York (73-51) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-0 loss on the road against the Tigers. Detroit (60-64) has won five of their last six games. This game is being played on a neutral field at the BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania for the seventh annual Little League Classic. The Tigers are the technical home team tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York fell into a temporary slump around this time last month — but they have won 13 of their last 19 games since July 27th to get back on track. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. They have also won 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than four runs in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have won 8 of their last 10 games on the road. Stroman gets the ball tonight looking to build off an encouraging effort in his last start. For the season, the right-hander has an 8-6 record along with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 23 starts. He held Texas to just one earned run in five innings of work last Sunday to end a six-game slide. He has been more effective on the road where his ERA drops to a 2.83 mark in 11 starts as opposed to his 5.06 ERA in 12 starts at home in Yankee Stadium. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 25th and 24th in those categories since June 1st. Stroman held them to one run on three hits in 5 1/3 innings when he pitched against them on May 3rd. Detroit’s record is bolstered by six games against the historically bad Chicago White Sox against whom they won five of those contests. But the Tigers have lost 7 of their last 11 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 4 straight games after shutting out their opponent in their last contest. They counter with Skubal who is the leading candidate to win the American League Cy Young Award. I don’t have much bad to say about the crafty left-hander. He has a 14-4 record along with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 24 starts. He is beatable though. Getting him away from Comerica Park helps — while he has a 2.34 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180 in 12 starts at home, those numbers rise a bit to a 2.74 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP and a .217 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.80. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.92 and 2.89 moving forward. While those are still great numbers, they are not quite as intimidating as his current 2.53 ERA. In his last three starts this month, his ERA has risen to a 3.72 mark. And in his four career starts against the Yankees, he has a 1-2 record with a 3.43 ERA. The Tigers have lost 4 of their last 5 games against New York.

FINAL TAKE: Skubal faces a challenge facing Aaron Judge and this Yankees’ lineup that crushes left-handed pitching. Judge is having perhaps the best statistical season for a hitter since Barry Bonds in the steroids era in the 1990s. I don’t suspect Judge is on the juice. Instead, when facing Skubal on May 5th, he adjusted his usual open stance by moving his left foot closer to the pitcher. The change felt more comfortable for him — and it helped deal with sliders moving away from him. Through May 4, Judge was batting just .154 with a .333 slugging percentage vs. sliders. After May 5, he’s hit .348 vs. them while slugging .812 (through August 12th — I’m not going to update the numbers from the last few days from when I came across this nugget. It’s fair to say Judge has still been amazing). The Yankees rank third in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (965) versus the Detroit Tigers (966) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Tarik Skubal. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (55-68) has lost three games in a row after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Phillies in the second game of their weekend series. Philadelphia (72-50) has won three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road. Gore gets the ball amidst a brutal slump for the left-hander. For the season, Gore has a 7-10 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 24 starts. In his last nine starts since June 25th, he has been saddled with a 6.40 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Gore was pitching great early in the season with his four-seam fastball reaching 97 miles per hour. But his velocity has dropped to 94-95 MPH which is a big problem for the hurler who throws his fastball more than 50% of the time. Gore’s deployment of his secondary pitches is inconsistent, especially with his command. He is dealing with mechanical issues which is compounding his problems. He has been putting an average of two hitters on base per inning since the beginning of July. Early in the season, he was saddled with a sky-high BABIP with him experiencing bad luck with the batted balls put into play against him. But now his expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.57 — so we are past those expectations for positive regression. And while he has a 4.35 ERA in his 15 starts at home, that mark rises to 4.72 on the road. He faces a Phillies team that crushes left-handed pitching. Philadelphia ranks third and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers — and they rank second in those categories over the last month since July 15th. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring fewer than four runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. Additionally, the Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home. They counter with Sanchez who is another young pitcher who was performing great early in the season but has since experienced some rough times. For the year, he has an 8-8 record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 23 starts. In his last seven stars, he has been saddled with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. His strikeout rate has dropped as he has only 25 punchouts in his last 38 innings. Fatigue might be the cause of his decline this summer. The 131 1/3 innings he has logged in this season are already 32 more innings than his previous career high back last year. He had a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP last season but in his final 52 innings since the beginning of August, those numbers rose to a 4.15 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.

FINAL TAKE: Washington ranks last in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers — but the breakout of rookie phenom James Woods has significantly altered that dynamic. In the last month since July 15th, the Nationals rank third in MLB in both those categories. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (954) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: San Diego (68-53) has won nine of their last ten games after their 3-0 win against the Pirates in the second game of this three-game series. Pittsburgh (56-63) has lost nine straight games and 11 of their last 12 contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Padres are one of the hottest teams in MLB having won 18 of their last 22 games — and they have won 16 of their last 19 games after winning their last game. They have also won 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs. They have won 6 games in a row after not scoring more than three runs in their last contest. And in their last 7 games at home at Petco Park, San Diego has won 6 of those games. Perez gets the start looking to improve his 2-5 record along with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 18 starts. In his last three starts, the left-hander has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Those last two starts were after the Padres acquired him from the Pirates. The San Diego coaching staff immediately had him decrease the usage of his four-seam fastball and his sinker for more pitches from his curveball and changeup which was his best two swing-and-miss pitches. He should be a better pitcher now that he is relying more on his best pitches. He has been more effective at home this season where he has a 3.98 ERA in ten starts as opposed to his 5.82 ERA in eight starts on the road. And in his 13 2/3 career innings at Petco Park in his career, he has a 3.29 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He should thrive when on the mound at this pitcher-friendly ball park. He has revenge on his mind this afternoon against his old team that ranks just 25th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. Pittsburgh has lost 9 of their last 10 games after a loss. They have also lost 7 straight games after failing to score more than two runs. They have lost 6 straight games on the road. They counter with Keller who has a 10-6 record along with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.95. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.11 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.58 ERA along with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in 11 starts — but those numbers skyrocket to a 4.59 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in 12 starts on the road. The Regression Gods may have already made their presence felt as Keller is saddled with a 6.31 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in his last five starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 10th and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (954) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (556) versus the Kansas City Royals (555) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Brady Singer. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (65-52) has lost two games in a row after their 5-3 loss at home against Cleveland on Sunday. Kansas City (65-53) had lost three of their last four games before their 8-3 win at home against St. Louis on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 8 games after losing their last game. They have also won 9 of their last 14 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. The Twins still have a 34-23 record at home at Target Field — and they have won six of their last eight games on their home field. They have also won 28 of their last 47 games at home when favored. They are a better team when they have Royce Lewis in the middle of the lineup. The rising superstar has been injury-prone — but Minnesota has a 22-15 record in the 37 games he has started this season (23-16 overall). Their .594 winning percentage when Lewis starts is much better than their .538 winning percentage when he does not play (42-36). Lopez gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 10-8 record along with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 23 starts. The right-hander has been burdened by some bad luck, particularly with his strand rate early in the season. But the deeper sabermetrics remain quite bullish. Lopez’s expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.50. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.36 and 3.32 moving forward. In his last eight starts, he has an ERA of 3.31 which is pretty much what those indicators are predicting. He should be motivated to rebound from a subpar effort in Chicago against the Cubs in his last start last Tuesday. He gave up four runs in five innings of work although three of the runs were scored on a home run in the first innings. Now he gets a Royals team that ranks 27th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Kansas City's surprising season has been propped up by their 12-1 record against the hapless Chicago White Sox who are threatening to break the MLB record for most losses in a season. Take away those games against the White Sox and the Royals are only one game above .500. They have a .460 winning percentage (29-34) against teams over .500. They have lost 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. They counter with Keller who has an 8-7 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts. He got hit hard in his last start against Boston last Monday when he gave up ten hard-hit batted balls in 5 2/3 innings. Those ten batted balls that were labeled hard-hit represented 50% of the Red Sox batted balls against him. Keller has a below-average four-seam fastball and sinker (both rank below 80 in Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ metric that measures the quality of MLB pitches with 100 being considered the median). Singer’s best pitch is his slider which he throws over 40% of the time — but Boston went into that game ranking sixth in MLB in expected weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) against sliders thrown from the right side of the plate. The Red Sox now rank fourth in that category — but here comes the Twins who rank sixth in MLB in xwOBA against right-handed sliders. The sabermetrics consider Singer as Lopez’s opposite in Bizarro World. His xERA skyrockets to 4.56. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.85 and 3.61 moving forward. The Regression Gods may be already making their presence known since Singer has a 4.97 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in his last two starts. His best work has been at home where he sports a 2.50 ERA along with a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 13 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.86 ERA along with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in ten starts on the road. He faces a Twins lineup that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in those categories since June 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games against the Royals — and they have beaten them in 16 of their last 18 games at home against them going back the last few seasons. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (556) versus the Kansas City Royals (555) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Brady Singer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) versus the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Matt Waldron. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-2 win at Houston on Sunday. San Diego (57-51) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 8-6 loss at Baltimore on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles limped into the All-Star break with six losses in a seven-game stretch — but they righted the ship after the time off by winning seven of their last ten games. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 6 games after winning their last game. They have won 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And in their last 8 games after getting one or more days off, they have won 5 of those games. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have won 25 of their 41 games this season when favored including seven of those last 11 circumstances. Glasnow gets the start looking to build on his 8-6 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing even better results. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.62. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.85 and 2.60 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 3.26 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in eight starts as compared to his 3.63 ERA and .194 opponent’s batting average of .194 in 11 starts at home. He faces a Padres lineup that ranks just 26th this month in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has lost 13 of their last 20 games after losing their previous game including dropping five of their last 7 games after a loss. They have lost 5 straight games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. And in their last 6 games after getting time off them their last game, they have lost 4 of those contests. The Padres are one of the best road warriors in MLB with a 31-23 record away from home — but they are just 26-28 at home at Petco Park where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games. Waldron gets the ball for San Diego coming into this game with a 6-9 record along with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 21 starts. The knuckleballer is a prime candidate for regression given his SIERA and xFIP which project an ERA of 4.18 and 4.23 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either with a 4.33 ERA and a .245 opponents' batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 3.11 ERA and .224 opponents' batting average in 12 starts on the road. He faces a Dodgers lineup that ranks fifth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank sixth and fifth in those categories since June 1st. This is the third time that Waldron pitches against Los Angeles — so the Dodgers’ book on his arsenal where he throws his knuckler up to 50% is growing.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 7 of their last 10 games against the Padres when playing in San Diego. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) versus the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Matt Waldron. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (970) versus the Minnesota Twins (969) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Simeon Woods Richardson. THE SITUATION: New York (55-50) had won five games in a row after dropping their last two games over the weekend culminating in a 9-2 loss at home to Atlanta on Sunday. Minnesota (58-46) has won three of their last four games after their 5-0 win at Detroit yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 13 of their last 17 games after a game where they did not score more than three runs. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than five runs in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 15 of their last 20 games — and they have won seven of their last 10 games at home at Citi Field. Quintana gets the ball looking to build on his 5-6 record along with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 20 starts. The left-hander has found his groove lately — he sports a 2.31 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his last seven starts. He has only given up more than two earned runs once in those last seven starts — and he has held five of those opponents to one earned run or less. He has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.58 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in ten starts — as opposed to his 4.50 ERA along with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in ten starts on the road. He does face a Twins team that ranks seventh in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers — but they have dropped to 17th and 16th in those categories since June 1st. Minnesota has lost 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 14 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog. The Twins counter with Woods Richardson who has a 3-1 record along with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 17 starts The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression for the right-hander. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.74. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.18 and 4.22 moving forward. Woods Richardson has been at his most effective when pitching at home where he has a 3.09 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.45 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in nine starts on the road. He faces a Mets team that ranks fifth and third in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 11 of their last 14 games against Minnesota — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home against them. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (970) versus the Minnesota Twins (969) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Simeon Woods Richardson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tanner Houck. THE SITUATION: New York (60-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with an 11-8 victory on the road against the Red Sox. Boston (55-48) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have scored 18 combined runs in their last two games — and they have Jazz Chisholm at the top of the lineup tonight after they acquired him from Tampa Bay on Friday. New York has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last contest — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing six or more runs in their last game. And in their last 16 games on the road, the Bronx Bombers have played 12 of these games Over the Total. Rodon gets the ball hoping to come close to replicating his best start of the season when he allowed only one run and struck out ten in seven innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. The left-hander has been inconsistent this season — and his most recent performance may speak more about the Rays’ anemic lineup. He has a 10-7 record with a 4.42 ERA and a  1.24 WHIP in 21 starts — but in his previous six starts before facing Tampa Bay, he was saddled with a 0-5 record with a 9.67 ERA. Rodon has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.61 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.00 ERA along with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in 13 starts. Now he pitches in Fenway Park with the ominous Green Monster looming over his right shoulder. Boston has scored at least six runs in seven straight games — but they have surrendered seven or more runs in six of those seven contests. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least six runs in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing seven or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Houck who has an 8-6 record along with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.81. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.42 and 3.25 moving forward. The left-hander has lost some effectiveness with his slider and splitter which has led to a reduction in his strikeout rate. In his last six starts, he has a 4.50 ERA with only 25 strikeouts and 14 walks in those 33 innings. In his 15 1/3 innings this month, he only has nine strikeouts. He has already surpassed his career high in innings pitched so fatigue may be the issue. Of further concern is that opposing hitters have an expected weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) of .352 against him in their last 100 plate appearances which is far above his xwOBA of .304 for the season. Houck has not been as effective at home either where he has a 2.96 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 11 starts as opposed to his 2.38 ERA and a .209 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. He faces a Yankees team that ranks third in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tanner Houck. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (981) and the Kansas City Royals (982) listing both starting pitchers Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo. THE SITUATION: Chicago (49-56) has lost three games in a row after their 6-0 loss on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (57-47) has won five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs got shutout for the second time in their last three games — they have scored only two runs over that stretch of games. They have not scored more than three runs in seven straight games — and they have scored two runs or less in six of those six contests. Chicago has played 5 straight Unders after losing their previous game. They have played 6 straight Unders after scoring three runs or less in their last game. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total. And in their 24 games in Interleague play, the Under is 16-7-1 this season. Imanaga gets the ball looking to build on his 8-2 record along with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 18 starts. The breakout Japanese star slumped for a few weeks while giving up too many gopher balls — but he has righted the ship after allowing only seven earned runs in his last four starts. In his last two starts, he has a 0.69 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. A 2.86 ERA may be too ambitious to expect the rest of the way — but his expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.40. That will work — especially against a vulnerable Royals lineup. Imanaga has a 2.51 ERA in his eight starts on the road — and he sports a 2.51 ERA when pitching at night. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after scoring six or more runs. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. The Royals have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 21 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when favored. They counter with Lugo who has a 12-4 record along with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 21 starts. Lugo is another starting pitcher who is outperforming his baseline numbers — but even if he approaches his xERA of 3.86, that’s not too shabby. The veteran 34-year-old may be one of the exceptions to the fielding independent data that tends to not like pitchers who rely on generating soft contact rather than getting whiffs. Lugo is a master of deception who is now throwing nine different pitchers to keep batters off balance. But then again, his punchouts are up in his last six starts — he has struck out 43 batters in those 39 2/3 innings to cross the strikeout-per-inning threshold. He comes off a complete game where he allowed only one earned run at home against the Chicago White Sox. He has been more effective at home where he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts as opposed to his 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. Granted, dominating the White Sox is what every pitcher is supposed to do — but Lugo has only allowed one earned run in his last three starts at home. In those last three home starts, Lugo enjoys a 0.43 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. The Cubs rank a middling 14th and 15th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 18th and 20th in those categories against right-handed pitchers (home and road) this month.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 16 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing at Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City. 25* MLB Interleague Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (981) and the Kansas City Royals (982) listing both starting pitchers Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. THE SITUATION: Seattle (53-51) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 2-1 loss at home to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday. Chicago (27-78) has lost 11 games in a row after a 2-1 loss at Texas yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are in tailspins for the same reason: they can’t hit. The Mariners have lost three games in a row while scoring just one run in each contest. They have not scored more than two runs in seven of their last eight games. They were having enough trouble generating runs before Julio Rodriguez suffered a high-angle sprain last weekend. The team did just trade for Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay but he will not join the team before tomorrow. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after failing to score more than one run in their last game. But the Mariners are getting great pitching. Kirby gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 7-7 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In his last ten starts, the right-hander boasts a 2.06 ERA along with a 0.93 WHIP. In his last five starts on the road, he sports a 2.03 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics validate his season-lone ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at exactly 3.20. Both his SIERA and xFIP which rely on fielding independent data project his ERA at 3.27 each moving forward. He has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last ten starts when he gave up three earned runs against Toronto on July 7th. Chicago has not scored more than four runs in 12 straight games — and they have scored three runs or less in 11 of those games. They have two runs or less in nine of their last 11 contests — and they have scored two runs or less in six of their last seven games with four of those games seeing one run or less scored by them. The White Sox have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Thorpe who has a 3-1 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in seven starts. The rookie right-hander has endured one bad start at Arizona when he gave up seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He has given up only six earned runs in his other six starts — and he has registered five straight Quality Starts. Tonight’s game will be just his third start at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA along with a 0.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .122. He should have success against this Seattle team that ranks 28th and 27th this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The White rank last in MLB this season at home against right-handed pitchers — and this is a mark that has remained remarkably consistent since they are also last in these categories since May 1st and since June 1st. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-57) has won two games in a row after their 3-1 come-from-behind victory on the road against the  Mariners last night. Seattle (53-49) has lost six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. Additionally, Halos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Soriano gets the start looking to replicate his last start which was against these Mariners back on July 13th when he allowed only one run and struck out five in six innings of work. That was an improvement from his first outing against them on May 31st when he gave up four runs in six innings. The rookie right-hander has the edge in this third matchup because of the not-so-dirty secret about this Seattle team: they can’t hit fastballs. The Mariners rank 28th in MLB by scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six contests. They rank 28th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 28th and 24th in those categories since the beginning of the month. To compound matters, the Mariners will be without Julio Rodriguez again with him being placed on the injured list earlier today with a right ankle sprain. Soriano has an opposing hitter ground ball rate of 60.2% which is one of the highest marks in MLB. He issues too many walks but he should be confident that he can simply throw strikes tonight. He has a 5-7 record this season with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 games (15 starts). In his last five starts, he has demonstrated improvement by producing a 3.41 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has been more effective away from home where he sports a 3.09 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in ten appearances as opposed to his 4.78 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven games at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in their last game. The Mariners have also played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total when playing at home including 13 of their last 19 contests at home at T-Mobile Park. Seattle has held nine of their last ten opponents to four runs or less — and they have a great chance to extend that streak with Gilbert on the hill. The right-hander has a 6-5 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.87 WHI) in 20 starts. In his last eight starts since the beginning of June, he enjoys a 2.10 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. That WHIP is no typo — in his last 55 2/3 innings of work, he has given only 33 base hits and issued a mere five bases-on-balls. He should pitch well against this Angels team that ranks 26th in MLB by scoring 4.1 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six games. Los Angeles ranks 27th and 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they have dropped to 28th in both those categories this month.

FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against AL West rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against the Angels. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Boston (53-44) has lost three of their last five games after their 7-6 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (58-41) has won the first two games of this series after their on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. Crawford gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 6-7 record along with his 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.69. Both his SIERA and xFIP that emphasize fielding independent data project his ERA to be at 3.85 and 4.06 moving forward. He faces this Dodgers lineup that ranks eighth and sixth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home. They counter with Paxton who has a 7-2 record along with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper numbers are screaming regression for this left-hander. His xERA sits at 4.83. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.54 and 5.37 respectively moving forward. The Regression Gods have already made their presence felt regarding Paxton since he has a 6.13 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in his last seven starts since June. The Red Sox rank 11th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: After last night, these two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games against each other Over the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (912) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (911) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Logan Webb. THE SITUATION: Colorado (35-63) has won two games in a row after their 7-3 win against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (47-51) has lost four of their last six games as well as six of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado may be floundering this season — but they have covered the Run-Line in 10 of their last 16 games. They have also won 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, the Rockies have won 4 of their last 5 games at home at Coors Field. Freeland gets the ball tonight who has been pitching much better than his 1-3 record along with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in eight starts would indicate. The club was optimistic about him during spring training as his velocity was up with all his pitches. But a left elbow strain appeared to impact his early performances which eventually led to a stint on the injured list. Since his return last month, Freeland has registered a 1.71 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in four starts. He has demonstrated better command — and he is getting whiffs with an improving curveball. In his last start against Cincinnati the previous Wednesday, he struck out nine batters in 6 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be giving up at least 1 1/2 fewer runs per game (even with his bad start to the season). His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.76. Both his SIERA and xFIP relying on fielding independent data projects his ERA at 4.68 and 4.43. Last season, he had a 3.67 SIERA and a 3.49 xFIP despite a frontline ERA of 5.03. The lefty has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.50 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in three starts as opposed to his 9.38 ERA, a 2.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .383 in five starts on the road. He should have success against this Giants team that ranks 17th and 18th in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers since June 1st. San Francisco is the definition of mediocrity. They have only spent five days this season above .500 — but they have not fallen below .500 by more than six games. The Giants have failed to cover the Run-Line in 6 of their last 7 games. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. On the road, they have lost 9 of their last 12 games. They counter with Webb who has a 7-7 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander made the All-Star team for the first time in his career — but that accomplishment came at a time when his performance has been in decline. His xERA sits at 4.86. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of  4.68 and 4.58 respectively. He’s striking out fewer batters which leaves him less margin for error. After seeing his strikeout rate peak in 2021 when he generated 9.50 strikeouts per nine innings, he is only striking out 7.75 batters per nine innings this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.00 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in nine starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.92 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 11 starts on the road. The Rockies get on base at home against right-handed pitchers — they rank eighth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average this season and rises to fourth in that category at home against right-handers since May 1st. The team’s problem has been getting these runners to cross home plate — but they have improved to 15th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers since June 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when favored — and the Rockies have covered the Run-Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home against San Francisco. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the Colorado Rockies (912) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (911) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Logan Webb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (912) versus the Texas Rangers (911) listing both starting pitchers Cole Irvin and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION:  Baltimore (53-30) has won four games in a row after their 6-5 victory at home against the Rangers last night. Texas (37-46) has lost six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: We were on Baltimore in last night’s game — and they should continue to build on their momentum tonight. Baltimore has won 10 of their last 13 games after winning their last game. They have now won 13 of their last 19 games at home at Camden Yards — and they have won 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Irvin gets the start tonight looking to build on his 6-4 record along with his 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 15 games (13 starts). The left-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA in nine games (eight starts) as opposed to his 4.26 ERA in six appearances on the road. The Orioles have won 5 of their last 7 games at night with Irvin on the hill. He should pitch well against this Rangers team that struggles against left-handed pitchers. Texas ranks 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they also rank 25th in both those categories since May 1st. The Rangers have lost 9 of their last 10 games after losing their last game. Texas has also lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They counter with Heaney who has a 2-9 record along with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 16 games (15 starts). His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.34 — so he is overachieving a bit relative to those underwhelming numbers. The left-hander has been better at home where he has a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in seven appearances (six starts). But in his nine starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .285. The Rangers have lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams winning at least 62% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles crush left-handed pitching. They lead MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching — and they also lead in both those categories since May 1st. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (912) versus the Texas Rangers (911) listing both starting pitchers Cole Irvin and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (966) versus the Texas Rangers (965) listing both starting pitchers Cade Povich and Michael Lorenzen. THE SITUATION:  Baltimore (51-30) has won three games in a row after their 2-1 victory at home against the Rangers last night. Texas (37-44) has lost five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore should build on their momentum tonight as they have won 9 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Orioles have now won 12 of their last 18 games at home at Camden Yards — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Povich gets the start tonight after posting a 2-2 record with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in his first four professional starts after getting called up from Triple-A. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.60 — so that is a good sign for him moving forward. The left-hander has been much better at home where he has a 2.31 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in two starts. He should have success against a Rangers team that struggles against left-handed pitching. Texas ranks 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers this season — and they have fallen to 26th in both those categories since May 1st. The Rangers have lost 8 of their last 9 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 5 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Texas has also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They counter with Lorenzen who has a 4-3 record along with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are screaming “Regression Gods!” His xERA sits at 4.50. Both his SIERA and xFIP that measure fielding independent data project an ERA of 4.78 and 4.51 moving forward. Lorenzen’s teams have lost 8 of their last 12 road games when he is on the mound priced as a money-line underdog up to +150.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles rank eighth and fourth in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (966) versus the Texas Rangers (965) listing both starting pitchers Cade Povich and Michael Lorenzen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (924) versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Randy Vasquez. THE SITUATION: Boston (43-37) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 9-4 upset loss at home to the Blue Jays on Tuesday. San Diego (44-41) has won three games in a row after their 8-5 victory against Washington on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston had their game with the Blue Jays rained on out Wednesday before a scheduled off day on Thursday — so they come into this game with plenty of rest. The Red Sox have rebounded to win in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. They have also won 6 straight games after failing to score more than four runs in their last game. They have played three straight Overs — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. Boston has still won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Pivetta gets the start tonight looking to build on his 4-4 record along with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.95. Both his SIERA and xFIP that emphasize fielding independent data project an ERA of 3.43 and 3.56 moving forward. In his last five starts, Pivetta has a 3.90 ERA — and Boston has won 9 of their last 10 games in June when he is on the mound. He faces a Padres team that ranks just 24th in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while the Padres have won seven of their last eight contests, they have then lost 10 of their last 15 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they have lost 9 of their last 10 games — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 games on the road in June going back to last season. They counter with Vasquez who has a 2-4 record with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in ten starts. His xERA rises to an ugly 6.81. And while he sports a respectable 3.55 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a .307 opponent’s batting average in his five starts at home in the spacious Petco Park, those numbers skyrocket to a 6.85 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and a .385 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road with Vasquez as their starting pitcher.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Sox ranks fourth and ninth in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (924) versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Randy Vasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (654) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (653) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Rogers. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (53-27) has won four of their last five games after their 6-2 victory at Detroit yesterday. Miami (28-52) has lost three of their last five games after their 5-1 loss at Kansas City on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Philadelphia has won 33 of their last 52 games after winning their previous game. They have also won 19 of their last 26 games after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they have won 30 of their last 40 games priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 11 straight home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. The Phillies have also won 50 of their last 71 games at home with the Total set from 7-8.5. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with a 9-4 record along with a 2.73 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.91 — so he is not really overachieving. He has been very tough to beat at home where he owns a 1.66 ERA along with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in nine starts. Philadelphia has won 26 of their last 38 games at home with Wheeler on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Marlins team that ranks 28th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Miami has lost 33 of their last 51 games after a loss. The Marlins have also lost 15 of their last 22 games after failing to score more than one run. They are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also lost 25 of their last 37 road games as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 17 of their last 19 games when priced as a money-line dog at +200 or higher. They counter with Rogers who has a 1-8 record this season with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 15 starts. His xERA rises to a 5.10 mark — so those bad numbers are not likely to improve. In his six starts at night, Rogers has a 5.59 ERA along with a 1.72 WHIP and a .314 opponent’s batting average. The Phillies score 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they rank sixth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia wants to avenge a 7-6 loss at Miami against the Marlins on May 12th — and they have won 10 straight games when avenging a one-run loss to their opponent. The team trends above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. The Phillies have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 26 of their 42 games this season when priced as a money-line favorite over my -150 price threshold for endorsing straight money-line side plays — and only seven of those Run-Line losses came from a one-run victory. Even better, they have covered the -1.5 Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games when priced as a money-line favorite over -150. The Marlins have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of their last 9 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Month with the Philadelphia Phillies (654) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (653) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Rogers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (969) versus the New York Mets (970) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: The New York Yankees (52-28) have lost four of their last five games after their 3-1 loss at home to Atlanta on Sunday. The New York Mets (37-39) have won nine of their last 11 games after their 3-1 win in Chicago against the Cubs on Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Bronx Bombers have faced a difficult stretch on their schedule with their last three series being against a surging Boston team along with Philadelphia and Atlanta. The Yankees have bounced back to win 18 of their last 28 games after a loss — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. They have won 15 of their last 22 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 7 games after a day off, they have won 5 of those games. They go back on the road where they are scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 28 of their 42 games away from home this season. The Yankees have won 20 of their 27 road games this season with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games on the road when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. They have also won 36 of their last 54 games played at night. Cole makes his second start of the season after giving up two runs in four innings in a tough assignment against Baltimore. He did strike out five batters and only gave up three hits in the effort. The right-hander had a 15-4 record last season with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 33 starts. He was more effective on the road where he enjoyed a 2.34 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 15 starts. The Yankees have won 7 of their last 9 road games with Cole on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Mets have lost 5 of their last 8 games after an off day. They return home after a six-game road trip where they have just an 18-23 (as opposed to their 19-16 record on the road). They are scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .220 batting average, a .290 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .652. They rank 28th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They counter with Peterson who has a 3-0 record with a 3.97 ERA in four starts this season after coming off the 60-day injured list following hip surgery. The left-hander had a 3-8 record last season with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 111 innings for the Mets. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he is pitching closer to those subpar numbers. His expected ERA (xERA) m Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 5.61. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.87 and 4.74 moving forward. In his two starts at home this season, opposing hitters have a .349 batting average against him with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games at home with Peterson on the mound priced as a money-line underdog. He pitches against a Yankees team that ranks 10th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 10 of their last 13 games at home as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games in Interleague play. 25* MLB TBS-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (969) versus the New York Mets (970) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. THE SITUATION: Toronto (35-42) has lost six games in a row after their 6-5 loss at Cleveland yesterday. Boston (42-36) has won seven of their last eight games after their 7-4 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. Bassitt gets the ball tonight with his 6-6 record along with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 15 starts. After struggling in April with opposing hitters posting a .327 batting average against him in six starts which resulted in a 5.33 ERA and a 1.89, he has been outstanding in his last nine starts. Since the beginning of May, Bassitt has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The right-hander endured a slow start last season as well where he ended April with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP — and he ended the year with a 3.60 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP. He held the Red Sox to just two earned runs in six innings in his last start. That game was played in Toronto where Bassitt has a 3.97 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts — but those numbers drop to a 3.00 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .253 opponent’s batting average in his seven starts on the road. In his last three starts on the road over 18 innings, he has a 0.50 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 19 strikeouts. The Blue Jays have played 12 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Boston has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have not committed a fielding error in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after two or more games in a row without an error. They turn to Houck tonight to build on his 7-5 record along with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics do not call for much regression either with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.93 moving forward — and those numbers will work! In his last four starts at home, he has a 2.17 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP — and he has not given up more than one earned run in three of those four appearances at Fenway Park.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Sox only score 4.3 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 17 of their last 22 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. THE SITUATION: New York has lost two of their last three games after their 8-1 loss on the road against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (37-40) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. New York continues their road trip tonight having played 22 of their last 32 games away from home Over the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Severino gets the start looking to build on his 4-2 record along with a 3.52 era and a 1.20 whip in fourteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home as well where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in eight starts — but in his six starts on the road, he has a 4.86 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237. Last season, Severino was saddled with an 8.14 ERA along with a 1.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in eleven appearances with ten starts. The Mets have played 5 of Severino’s 6 road starts this season Over the Total. Despite their meager scoring numbers, the Cubs do rank 16th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a win by six or more runs. They counter with Assad who has a 4-2 record along with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is another prime regression candidate like Severino. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.07 and 4.04 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.07. Assad has not been as effective at home at Wrigley Field for the Cubs either in his career. In 113 2/3 innings, he has a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254 as opposed to his 1.20 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in 112 innings on the road. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks second and third in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank second in both those categories since May 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (928) versus the Atlanta Braves (927) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: New York (51-27) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests after their 8-1 loss at home to the Braves yesterday. Atlanta (42-31) has won four games in a row and seven of their last eight contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has had a tough week with Anthony Rizzo going on the injured list and Aaron Judge missing time after getting hit by a pitch. The competition has been tough as well after a weekend trip against a surging Boston Red Sox team before playing Baltimore during the week before this series with the Braves. But the Yankees still have the best record in MLB — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by four or more runs. They stranded two runners last night — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after leaving no more than three runners on base in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games after losing two or more games in a row. At home in Yankee Stadium, they have a 23-13 record including four losses by just one run including their loss to the Orioles on Wednesday. New York has won 22 of their last 33 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 23 of their last 35 games overall when priced up to a -150 money-line favorite. Stroman takes the ball tonight looking to build on his 6-3 record along with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics don’t love him — as is sometimes the case with ground ball pitchers who rely on inducing soft contact. Stroman typically sees his ERA outperform the projections from the analytics as he once again is inducing ground balls at a rate over 50% for the tenth time in his ten seasons in MLB. After struggling with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in his first five starts in April, he has since posted a 2.72 ERA in his last nine starts. While he can throw six different pitches, he is throwing his fastback and slider less while drastically reducing his reliance on his sinker which was not generating enough swinging strikes. Instead, he is throwing his splitter more along with his cutter which is generating more than double the swinging strike rate of that sinker. The 33-year-old right-hander is consistent with high floor regarding his results from start to start. He has not allowed more than three runs in ten of his 15 starts including seven of his last nine. Stroman last pitched on Sunday — and the Yankees have won 5 of their last 7 games when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. New York has also won 20 of their last 31 games at home with Stroman making the start with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six or more runs. And while the Braves have not allowed more than one run in four straight games, they have then lost 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than four runs in four or more games in a row. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. They counter with Morton has a 4-3 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 13 starts. In his last six starts, he has been saddled with a 4.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP — and he has those numbers despite the benefit of playing the woeful Oakland A’s against which he pitched six shutout innings. The 40-year-old seems to be losing his stuff. After peaking in 2019 by striking out 11.10 batters per nine innings and generating 30.4% strikeouts per batter faced when pitching for Tampa Bay, he is only striking out 9.29 batters per nine innings and punching out only 24.8% of the batters he has faced — and those are the lowest marks since 2016 and 2020 respectively. He did hold Tampa Bay to only one earned run in his last start last Saturday — but the Braves have lost 5 straight games when Morton is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Atlanta has also lost 13 of their last 19 games with Morton pitching and priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a Yankees lineup that has Judge back from that midweek wrist injury. New York leads MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank number one in the league in both those categories since May 1st. The Yankees have won 42 of their last 60 games against teams using a right-handed starting pitcher.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. And since being without Ronald Acura since May 27th after his season-ending injury, Atlanta ranks last in MLB in both those metrics. To make things worse, the Braves lost outfield Michael Harris this week to a hamstring injury. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (928) versus the Atlanta Braves (927) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (957) versus the San Diego Padres (958) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Michael King. THE SITUATION: Arizona (30-33) has won five of their last six games after their 4-3 victory on the road against the Padres last night. San Diego (32-34) has lost five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The reigning National League champions are beginning to heat up after a slow start to the season. Arizona has won 10 of their last 17 games on the road which is a great sign since they have won 13 of their last 16 games on the road in June. They have won 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set at 8 or higher. They have also won 33 of their last 52 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Pfaadt gets the start looking to build on his 2-4 record along with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 12 starts. After a slow start to the season, the right-hander has a 3.68 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in his last nine starts. He has tinkered with his approach by adding a new sinker and relying on his four-seamer only against right-handed hitters that he is getting better ride on from a lower release point. He has 71 strikeouts and only 14 walks in his 73 innings. The biggest thing holding him back is a usually low strand rate of 59.0% of the runners that get on base against him. For perspective, the lowest strand rate from qualifying starting pitchers in the last three seasons is Jordan Lyles’ 56.3% strand rate — and the next lowest strand rate during that span jumps up to 66.0%. Pfaadt is due for a visit from the Regression Gods to see that left-on-base rate move back up closer to the MLB average. The deeper sabermetrics are very encouraging. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.80. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.56 and 3.59 moving forward. Remember how effective he was in the postseason last year when he posted a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 22 innings with 26 strikeouts and only five walks. He has also been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts as compared to his 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in five starts at home. He faces a Padres team that scores only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .225 batting average, a .295 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .666. San Diego has lost 32 of their last 54 games after a loss by two runs or less. And while they have not allowed more than four runs in six straight games, they have lost 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than four runs in five or more games in a row. The Padres have lost 17 of their 28 games at home at Petco Park this season — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set at 7 or lower. Furthermore, they have lost 16 of their last 20 home games at night — and they have lost 26 of their last 36 home games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with King who has a 4-4 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 13 appearances. His xERA calls for some regression with that number at 4.04. Of concern is his walk rate of 10.1% of the batters he has faced. He is also giving up too many home runs. After allowing 10 homers last year in 104 2/3 innings mostly as a reliever, he has surrendered 13 homers in 73 innings as a starter this season for a rough 1.60 home runs per nine innings rate. He has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in five starts as opposed to his 3.11 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in eight games (seven starts) on the road. He faces an Arizona team that is heating up by scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .279 batting average, a .336 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .822. The Diamondbacks rank fifth in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres have lost 9 of their last 12 home games when avenging a loss by just one run. 25* MLB National League West Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (957) versus the San Diego Padres (958) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Michael King. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Arizona (25-31) has lost four games in a row after their 3-2 loss on the road to the Mets in the opening game of this four-game series. New York (23-33) snapped their three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have only scored nine combined runs in their last six games — and they have not scored more than two runs in five of those contests. Arizona has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less in two games in a row. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. Montgomery gets the ball looking to build on his 3-2 record along with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in seven starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.70 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in three starts as opposed to his 6.44 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .329 in four starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent last year when he pitched for Texas and St. Louis. While Montgomery had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his 17 starts at home for those clubs, he was better away from home where he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 15 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that ranks 21st and 16th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has scored eight combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than three runs during that span. The Mets have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total at home after a win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games at home after a victory by two runs or less. They are scoring only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .204 batting average, a .276 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .603. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total at night. They counter with Severino who has a 2-2 record along with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hand has been better at home where he owns a 2.00 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 in six starts as compared to his 5.16 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in four starts on the road. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 27th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They are only scoring 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, they are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .200 batting average, a .250 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530.

FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and the Mets have played 35 of their last 49 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (34-22) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss on the road against the Twins in the second game of this series. Minnesota (30-24) has won two straight games and six of their last seven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. They are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .227 batting average, a .280 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .630. Lugo gets the start looking to continue his outstanding season — he has an 8-1 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last six starts, he sports a 1.52 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP across 41 1/3 innings with 47 strikeouts and just eight walks. I don't think this elite level of performance is sustainable -- but he will still be pitching well even if his ERA regresses to his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.74. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 0.75 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .145 in five starts as opposed to his 2.72 EA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .261 in six starts at home. His teams have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home against AL Central rivals. They are scoring only 3.8 Rruns-Pe-Game at home with a .227 batting average along with a .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .689. They counter with Ober who will have revenge and redemption on his mind after the Royals rocked him for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his opening start of the season on Mach 31st. The right-hander has a 5-2 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts -- and he sports a 3.02 ERA in his last nine starts after that opening disaster. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging. His xERA from Statcast which incorporates exit velocities and hard-hit rates is 3.41. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.58 and 3.92 moving forward. Ober has pitched better at home where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .167 in four starts as opposed to his 5.52 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .252 in six starts on the road including his previous start against the Royals. The Twins have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total with Ober as their starting pitcher in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams struggle against right-handed pitching.  The Royals rank 29th in both weighted On-Base Average and weighed Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Twins rank 24th and 20th in weighted On-Base Aveeragee and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Baltimore Orioles (967) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Chris Flexen. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (30-18) snapped their three-game losing streak with an 8-6 victory against the White Sox in the opening game of this series last night. Chicago (15-36) has lost two games in a row and six of their last seven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Baltimore should continue to take advantage of playing the hapless White Sox as they have won 9 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 22 of their last 29 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Burnes gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 4-2 record along with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in ten starts. His expected ERA from Statcast that incorporates exit velocities and hard-hit rate projects an ERA of 2.83 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .162 in three starts as compared to his 1.08 WHIP and .232 opponent's batting average in seven starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season for Milwaukee when Burnes had a 2.77 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .184 in 18 road starts as opposed to his 4.28 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .223 in 14 starts at home. His teams have won 22 of their last 29 road games with him starting and priced as a money-line favorite from -125 or higher. He faces a White Sox offense that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .216 Batting Average, a .289 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .595. Chicago ranks only 23rd in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The White Sox have lost 28 of their last 37 games after losing their previous game -- and they have lost 12 of their last 13 games after a loss by two runs or less. They counter with Flexen who has a 2-4 record with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 10 games (eight starts). He has struggled in five starts at home where he has a 6.23 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .295. His teams have lost 13 of their last 18 home games when he is starting as a money-line underdog. Chicago has lost 15 of their 23 home games as an underdog this season -- and they have lost 39 of their last 52 home games priced as a money-line underdog priced at +125 or higher. Flexen faces an Orioles team that ranks fourth in MLB on the road against right-handed pitchers in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 13 instances that the Orioles have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 6 times with 5 straight-up losses and only 2 wins by just one run. That’s just OK. But the White Sox have been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher 39 times already this season — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 24 times with 10 upset wins and only 5 losses by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Baltimore by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month with the Baltimore Orioles (967) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago White Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Chris Flexen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (968) versus the Seattle Mariners (967) listing both starting pitchers Nestor Cortes and Bryce Miller. THE SITUATION: New York (33-17) has lost the first two games in this series after their 6-3 loss at home to the Mariners yesterday. Seattle (27-22) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York had won seven games in a row when this series began — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing six or more runs. Cortes gets the ball tonight looking to build on his seven innings of work without giving up an earned run in his last start on Friday against the Chicago White Sox. The lefty has a 2-4 record along with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which includes exit velocity and hard-hit rate in their formula projects an ERA of 2.70 for Cortes moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.27 ERA along with a 0.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Yankees have won 24 of their last 35 home games with Cortes pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Mariners team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .219 Batting Average, a .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .688. New York has won 16 of their last 24 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have also won 14 of their last 21 home games with the Total set from 7-8.5. Seattle has lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 games after winning two or more games in a row. The Mariners counter with Miller who has a 3-4 record along with a 3.08 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander comes off a rough outing when he allowed five runs (four earned) in 5 1/3 innings of work at Baltimore on Friday. The deeper metrics call for regression. His xERA projects an ERA of 4.23. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.68 and 3.71 respectively. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.37 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .160 in five starts — but in his four starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.03 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226. Seattle has lost 11 of their last 17 games as a money-line underdog with Miller on the mound. When playing at home against right-handed pitchers, the Yankees lead MLB in weighted uns Created — and they rank third in weighted On-Base Average. New York has won 27 of their last 38 games against teams using a right-handed starting pitcher. 

FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have won 5 of their last 7 games when playing with double-revenge. And while they got upset as a -155 money-line favorite yesterday, they have won 20 of their last 28 opportunities to avenge an upset loss at home where they were priced as a money-line favorite of -150 or higher. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (968) versus the Seattle Mariners (967) listing both starting pitchers Nestor Cortes and Bryce Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (962) versus the Kansas City Royals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Detroit (15-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-5 victory against the Royals in the second game of their three-game series on Saturday. Kansas City (17-11) had won four games in a row before the loss. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Royals had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the seventh inning yesterday — but their bullpen surrounded five runs in that inning to blow that save opportunity. Kansas City has lost 27 of their last 36 games after their bullpen blew a save. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after a one-run loss to an AL Central rival — and they have lost 18 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 32 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range, they have lost 25 of those games. Wacha gets the ball this afternoon looking to build on his 1-2 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in five starts. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.59 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in two starts as opposed to his 5.29 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his three starts on the road. Granted, the sample size is still small — but it is consistent with his numbers last season with San Diego. In his 14 starts in the spacious Petco Park, he enjoyed a 2.62 ERA — that mark rose to a 4.14 ERA in his 10 starts on the road. Wacha’s teams have lost 5 of their last 7 road games when he is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. Furthermore, while he had a 3.22 ERA in his 24 starts last year, both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.43 and 4.47. I am leaning in to expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rate and exit velocity — and Wacha’s xERA last season was 4.27. He faces one of the biggest breakout stars in the game in Skubal. The left-hander comes off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He has a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He has punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he is striking out 31.2% of the batters he has faced. This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal has a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an xERA of 2.30. In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. The Tigers have won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He should thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595. 

FINAL TAKE: Manager A.J. Hinch makes sure his team is ready to play against divisional foes as Detroit has won 43 of their last 64 games against AL Central rivals. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (962) versus the Kansas City Royals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (102-76) took a 3-1 series lead with their 11-7 victory on the road last night. Arizona (94-84) looks to keep their season alive and force a Game Six back in Texas on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Even without Adolis Garcia who is out the rest of the World Series, the Rangers exploded for five runs in the second inning and another five runs in the third inning to quickly take control of Game Four. Texas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game where at least 17 combined runs were scored. The Rangers have not committed an error in six straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games without committing an error. Texas committed only 57 errors in the regular season which is the second-fewest in the league Eovaldi gets the ball tonight after giving up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had one bad inning where he gave up three runs with the Diamondbacks getting a couple of seeing-eye ground ball base hits before Corbin Carroll broke things open with a triple. Look for Eovaldi to bounce back with a strong effort — he has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in five starts in these playoffs. The underlying sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP from those five starts projecting an ERA of 2.72 and 2.63 moving forward. Eovaldi has plenty of big-game experience in the postseason going back to his time with the Boston Red Sox. He has a 10-1 career record in the postseason with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.10 ERA as a starter. In three starts on the road in these playoffs, he has a 2.84 ERA — and he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 13 road starts in the regular season. He faces this Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing nine or more runs — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last game. They have also played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Diamondbacks have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Five of the runs allowed last night were unearned runs coming from a Christian Walker error in a rare fielding misstep for this team that led MLB with only 56 errors in the regular season. They counter with Gallen who gave up three earned runs in five innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander has struggled with command in the postseason — but four of his five starts have been on the road where he had a 4.43 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 18 starts on the road in the regular season. But in his 16 starts at home in the regular season, he enjoyed a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230. While he averaged 2.42 bases-on-balls per nine innings on the road in the regular season, his command was much better at home where only walked 1.59 batters per nine innings. Arizona has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with Gallen on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. They have also played 24 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Rangers will miss Garcia’s scorching hot bat — he had a .323 batting average, a .382 on-base percentage, and a 1.108 OPS in these playoffs with eight home runs and 22 RBIs.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 10 or more runs. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:03 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Seven of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (96-76) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 9-2 loss at home to the Rangers in Game Six last night. Texas (98-75) staved off elimination to force this decisive Game Seven tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 17 of their last 26 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Astros have also won 31 of their last 45 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Furthermore, they have won 6 of their last 8 playoff games when they can close out the series despite last night’s loss. Javier gets the start after posting a 1.69 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .111 in his two previous starts this postseason. The right-hander has a remarkable 1.85 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 34 career innings in his playoff career. He has struck out 49 batters in the postseason. Javier struggled in the regular season with a 10-5 record along with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 31 starts — but he was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 starts. But now his velocity is back up — and he is pitching as well as he has at any time in his career. The Astros have won 19 of their last 27 home games with Javier on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have won 9 straight games with Javier pitching with the total set in the 9-9.5 range. And they have won 6 straight playoff games with Javier their starting pitcher. The last five games in this series have finished Over the Total — but Texas has lost 18 of their last 30 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. The Rangers turn to Scherzer despite his giving up five runs in four innings in his previous start in his series last Wednesday. The right-hander made his first start since September 12th when he went on the injured list with a shoulder strain. He has not built his arm strength after only one rehab appearance before that outing. If this was the regular season, this would probably be his third and final rehabilitation appearance. Even if he was back to 100%, he was less effective on the road this season. While he posted a 3.09 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP in 12 regular season starts, those numbers rose to a 4.31 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Scherzer’s teams have lost 7 of their last nine games in the playoffs when he is the starting pitcher.

FINAL TAKE: It is interesting that the road team has won all six games in this series — but I think that trend ends tonight. The reigning World Series champions will find a way to win this game tonight — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss at home by six or more runs. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (97-73) has won four games in a row after their 10-0 victory at home against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Arizona (89-80) has lost two games in a row to fall behind in this series by an 0-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia is playing with tons of momentum — they have won 21 of their last 28 games in October. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games after shutting out their last opponent. They have held the Diamondbacks to just three runs in this series — and they have won 21 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 32 of their last 53 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. Suarez gets the start after posting a 4-6 record along with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 22 regular season starts. The left-hander had a 5.45 ERA in his 12 starts at home — but he enjoyed a 2.75 ERA in 10 starts on the road in the regular season. Philadelphia has won 18 of their last 28 games on the road with Suarez on the mound — and they have won 10 of their last 14 road games with Suarez pitching priced in the +/- 125 range. Suarez has been dynamite in this postseason with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP in two starts — and he has a 1.16 ERA along with a 0.86 WHIP in his seven career playoff appearances which includes five starts. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is hitting only .226 in their last seven games with a .299 on-base percentage during that span. Arizona ranks just 12th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks have only four base hits in each of the first two games of this series — and they have lost 25 of their last 32 games after failing to get more than five hits in two straight games. They have not scored more than four runs in four straight games — and they have lost 17 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. The Arizona bullpen gave up six runs on Tuesday  — and they have lost 6 games in a row after their bullpen allowed six or more runs in their last game. They counter with Pfaadt who had a 3-9 record with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 regular season appearances. In his ten starts at home, he was saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314. In his two postseason starts this year, he has a 3.86 ERA — but he also has a 1.43 WHIP and a .321 opponent’s batting average in those two starts. He gave up 22 homers in the regular season at a 2.06 home runs per nine innings rate which is very concerning against this Phillies team bashing home runs right now.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by eight or more runs — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road by ten or more runs. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Three of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (93-75) finds themselves trailing by an 0-2 deficit in the ALCS after a 5-4 loss at home to the Rangers on Monday. Texas (97-72) has won seven games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by one run — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. After losing Game One by a 2-0 score, the Astros have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. Houston has not scored more than four runs in their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. The Astros are only hitting .173 in their last three games — but they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting above .200 in their last three contests. Javier gets the start after pitching five scoreless innings at Minnesota in his last start last Tuesday in the ALDS. The right-hander’s velocity was up in that start — but he also walked five batters in that effort. Javier was solid at home this year where he had a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 regular season starts — but those numbers rose to a 5.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 18 starts on the road. Houston has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Javier on the mound as the money-line underdog. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. Texas is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .274 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and a .843 OPS. The Rangers have played 44 of their last 68 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They have played 37 of their last 61 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. And while Texas has not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They counter with Scherzer who is making his first start in 36 games after suffering a muscle strain in his right shoulder. Only three pitchers have taken the mound in the playoffs with a longer duration between starts in the history of MLB. Two of those circumstances took place this century — and those two starters have up four and three runs apiece while combining for a 5.63 ERA. Scherzer threw 68 pitches in his lone simulated game. If this was the regular season, the 39-year-old would probably throw two more simulated games to build up his strength and endurance. Even if he is effective tonight, he is not likely to pitch deep into the game. By the way, Scherzer’s strikeout rate is his lowest since 2013 while his walk rate is his highest since 2013. In his 12 career starts in a League Championship Series, 10 of those games finished Over the Total. His teams have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total this season when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He faces an Astros team that ranks fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they led MLB in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with revenge for a loss by one run. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-64) looks to stave off elimination after falling behind 0-2 in this best-of-five series in a 4-2 loss at home to the Diamondbacks on Monday. Arizona (88-78) returns home on a four-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have won 46 of their last 64 games after losing their last contest — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss to an NL West rival. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Dodgers have lost four of their last six games, they have then won 16 of their last 23 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games after an off day. They go back on the road where they have won 22 of their last 32 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They have won 45 of their last 69 games when listed as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. They turn to Lynn tonight who has a 13-11 record along with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 32 starts. While the right-hander has been inconsistent this season with some outstanding efforts tempered by several clunkers, the deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.33 and 4.50 moving forward. He has been more effective since being traded over to the Dodgers from the Chicago White Sox — he has a 3.38 ERA in his last four starts this season while averaging six innings per appearance. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they rank 25th and 23rd in those categories since September 1st. Arizona is only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, a .317 on-base percentage, and a .703 OPS during that span. The Diamondbacks have not given up more than two runs in three straight games — but they have lost 6 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in three straight games. They have also lost 24 of their last 39 games after a win by two runs or less. Furthermore, while Arizona has been a money-line underdog of +145 and +175 in the first two games in this series, they have then lost 16 of their last 25 games after two straight upset wins against a divisional rival priced at +130 or higher. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 3-9 record along with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 appearances in the regular season. In his start in Game One of the Wildcard round against Miami, he gave up three runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314 in ten starts as opposed to his 5.04 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine appearances on the road. Arizona has lost 5 of their 7 games with Pfaadt pitching against an NL West rival. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks 2nd and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 2nd in both those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 18 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games when motivated with double revenge with two straight losses to their opponent. The Dodgers had won five games in a row against Arizona before this series began. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer in Game Three of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (94-72) has won four straight games after their 11-8 victory on the road against the Orioles on Sunday. Baltimore (101-63) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas should build off their momentum as they have won 57 of their 93 games after a victory this season including winning 8 of their last 11 games after a win. They have also won 24 of their last 33 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last game. And in their last 17 games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored, they have won 12 of those contests. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 contests. Eovaldi gets the start after putting up a 12-5 record in 25 regular season starts along with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He was more effective at home where he had a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. His teams have won 23 of their last 34 games when he is pitching at home priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Baltimore has lost 50 of their last 73 games after losing three or more games in a row. They have also lost 15 of their last 22 games after a game where both teams scored and allowed eight or more runs. And in their last 34 games when 17 or more combined runs were scored, the Orioles have lost 25 of those games. They have also lost 9 of their last 11 games in October. They counter with Kremer who had a 13-5 record in 32 starts in the regular season with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.34 moving forward. While he had a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 1.39 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 13 starts. Baltimore has lost 8 of their last 13 road games with Kremer on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers rank second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they are third in the league in those categories since the beginning of September. 25* MLB Divisional Series Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen in Game Two in their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Arizona (87-78) has won three games after taking the opening game of this best-of-five series with their 11-2 victory on Saturday. Los Angeles (100-63) has lost two of their last three games to fall behind 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 37 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a fellow NL West rival priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 34 of their last 51 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers scratched out only four base hits yesterday — but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not getting more than four hits in their last game. They are only hitting .197 in their last three games — but they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not hitting higher than .200 in their last three contests. Miller gets the start tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts. The rookie sees his ERA rise to a 4.55 mark in his 10 starts at home as opposed to his 3.09 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Dodgers have also played 41 of their last 66 games Over the Total when priced as the money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Arizona has played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after an off day. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when on the road. The Diamondbacks have scored 22 combined runs in their last three games while plating at least five runs in each of those contests. They counter with Gallen who has a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 — but in his 18 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. In his last seven starts in the regular season, the right-hander had a 4.93 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Arizona has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with Gallen on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175 range. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the playoff series. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with  Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios in Game Two in this American League Wildcard series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (88-75) took the opening game of this best-of-three series with a 3-1 victory on Tuesday. Toronto (89-74) has lost five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota is a better team than their record suggests. They outscored their opponents in the regular season by +119 runs — a +0.7 net run differential — which typically translates into 93 wins on a 162-game schedule. They had a 19-27 record in games decided by one run which suggests where they had some bad breaks. But they have now won 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 4 straight games after not scoring more than three runs in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Twins have now won 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have won 45 of their last 68 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gray gets the ball this afternoon with his 8-8 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last seven starts this season, the right-hander has a 1.54 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP. In his four career starts in the postseason, Gray has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Minnesota has won 21 of their last 33 home games with Gray on the hill when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that has lost 14 of their last 30 games against American League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.40 or lower. Toronto has now lost 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Berrios who has a 11-12 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 4.01 moving forward. Perhaps the Regression Gods have already made their presence felt for the veteran right-hander since he has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts — and he has allowed four or more runs in five of his last nine starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 15 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.97 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in his 17 starts on the road. Berrios’ teams have lost 21 of their last 29 games when he is on the mound against a team that outscores their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. He faces a Minnesota team that ranks third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank third and second in those respective metrics since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins got a monkey off their backs yesterday by snapping their 18-game losing streak in the postseason. Now they are one win away from advancing to the American League Divisional Series — and they are playing a Blue Jays team with their own shaken psyche issues as they have now lost 5 of their last 6 games in the Wildcard round of the American League playoffs. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (90-72) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 9-1 victory at New York against the Mets on Sunday. Miami (84-77) had their three-game winning streak end in a 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The defending National League champions have plenty of postseason experience — and they have won 15 of their last 23 games in October.  They have won 4 straight openers in a new playoff series. They have also won 18 of their last 28 games after losing three of their last four contests. As the top wildcard team in the National League, they earned the right to host his best-of-three series — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The money-line price on the Phillies has dropped below my -150 price threshold to endorse them tonight — and they have won 21 of their last 32 home games when priced up to -150. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with a 13-6 record this season along with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 32 starts. In his six career starts in the postseason, the veteran right-hander has a 2.78 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 14 home games with Wheeler their starting pitcher with the Total set from 7-7.5. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 24th in both those categories since July. Miami has lost 8 of their last 12 games after getting shut out in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than three combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Marlins have lost 44 of their last 65 games after an off day. They counter with Luzardo who has a 10-9 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 31 starts. The left-hander has pitched only three innings in the postseason in his career. He did his best work at home this year where he had a 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .216 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 4.48 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in 12 starts on the road. Miami has lost 15 of their last 21 road games with Luzardo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces this Phillies lineup that ranks 5th and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they have risen to 2nd and 3rd in the league since July in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will motivated to avenge a 5-4 loss at home to the Marlins as a -160 money-line favorite on September 10th — and they have won 16 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* MLB NL East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: Texas (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Mariners. Seattle (86-73) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The stakes remain urgent for both teams — the Rangers are two games ahead of Houston for first place in the AL West while the Mariners are one game behind those Astros for the final American League wildcard spot. There are still scenarios where both teams could find themselves on the outside looking in after the regular season concludes this weekend. Texas managed only three base hits last night — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where they did not have more than four hits. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two games in a row. On the road, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 12-4 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.95 moving forward. He is struggling this month in his five starts with a 7.41 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs after a game that finished Under the Total — and the Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games after scoring no more than three runs in their last game. The Mariners have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while Seattle has not scored more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Over the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Woo who has a 4-5 record along with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts. In his four starts this month, the rookie right-hander has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He faces a Rangers offense that ranks 10th and 8th this season in weighted On-Base Created and weighted Runs Created this season — and they rank 8th and 6th in those metrics since August 1st and 5th and 4th in those categories this month. Despite scoring at least five runs in six of their last nine games, Texas is hitting only .218 in their last five games — but they have played 16 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in September — and the Mariners have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (100-56) has won three of their last four games after their 8-5 victory at Washington on Sunday. Chicago (82-74) is on a three-game winning streak after a 4-3 win at home against Colorado on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has nothing to play for this week having clinched the top seed in the National League playoffs — but they should be motivated to bring their A-Game against a Cubs team that has beaten them twice in a row. We need to be careful this week about starting lineups with it being the final week of the regular season — and Ronald Acuna and company are confirmed to be on the lineup card tonight. The Braves have won 69 of their last 111 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 23 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Elder gets the ball tonight with his 12-4 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander has allowed four earned runs in two straight starts — so he will want to right his ship tonight with his next start likely to be in the postseason. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.26 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s average of .256 in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 12 of their 16 home games this season with Elder on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that ranks 21st in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs on the road against right-handed pitchers. Cody Bellinger has carried them this summer — but he is currently mired in a 5 of 32 slump with a .156 batting average in his last nine games. Chicago currently is tied with Arizona for the second and third spots in the NL wildcard race — but the pressure remains on them being only one game ahead of Miami who is still very much in contention. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring four runs or less in their last game. They have also lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have also lost 10 of their last 13 games on the road against NL East rivals. They counter with Steele who has a 16-5 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.63 and 3.35 moving forward. Perhaps the pressure of reaching the postseason or  NL Cy Young Award possibilities have gotten into the left-hander’s head as he has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts for a 12.00 ERA along with a 1.89 WHIP. He faces a Braves team that has won 22 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Braves lead MLB in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage — and they should be motivated to maintain their pace to break an MLB record for home runs in a single season.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta got upset in two straight games as the road favorite at Wrigley Field in the last two meetings between these teams on August 5th and 6th — but the Braves have won 10 of their last 13 opportunities for double-revenge from upset losses as a road favorite. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (97-54) snapped out of their four-game losing streak last night with a 9-3 victory at home against the Phillies. Philadelphia (82-69) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Getting Ronald Acuna back in the lineup last night jumpstarted the Atlanta attack as they had 13 base hits while scoring those nine runs — and Acuna went three-for-five with two home runs and a stolen base. Acuna is set to lead off this afternoon's game. The Braves have won 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six or more runs — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last contest. The Braves have also won 29 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They finished this series at home where they have won 23 of their last 34 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Pitching has been a problem for the Braves — so getting Spencer Strider in his turn in their starting rotation helped. Now Elder gets his next start to build on his 12-4 record along with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 29 starts. In his last six starts, the right-hander has a 2.97 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and only 12 walks. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in 15 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in his 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 19 home games with Elder on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a slumping Phillies lineup that is hitting only .239 in their last seven games with a .301 on-base percentage and an OPS of .738 during that span. Philadelphia plays their sixth straight game on the road — and they have lost 23 of their last 37 games after playing four or more games on the road. The Phillies bullpen gave up six runs last night — and they have then lost 7 of their last 11 games after a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs. They have also lost 8 of their last 13 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. And in their last 16 games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175, they have lost 10 of those contests. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 30 starts. The veteran right-hander is slumping this month with an 8.56 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .315 in his last three starts. And while he enjoys a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in 13 starts, those numbers rise to a 5.58 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in his 17 starts on the road. Philly has lost 13 of their last 20 games on the road with Nola on the mound priced as a money-line underdog. The Braves lead MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they also lead MLB in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL: TAKE: The Phillies have lost 19 of their last 31 games including five of their last eight when playing with revenge from a loss to an NL West rival on the road by six or more runs. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (96-54) looks to end a four-game losing streak after their 7-1 loss at home to the Phillies in the opening game of this series. Philadelphia (82-68) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has lost a bit of their edge as they prepare for their postseason run in a few weeks — but tonight is probably the night they decide enough is enough. They only managed four base hits last night against the Phillies Zack Wheeler — but they have then won 9 of their last 11 games after not getting more than four hits in their last contest. The Braves have won 28 of their last 37 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have lost five of their last seven contests, they have then won 10 games in a row after losing five or six of their last seven games. Atlanta has still won 25 of their last 35 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Their ace Strider gets the ball tonight with his 17-5 record along with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicates his ERA should lower with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.82 and 2.83 moving forward. He struggled in two starts while dealing with an illness — but he rebounded in his most recent start by allowing only one earned run and four hits in seven innings at Philadelphia last Wednesday. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 14 starts as opposed to his 1.14 WHIP and .208 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 11 of his 14 home starts this season. Philadelphia banged out five home runs last night — but they have lost 5 of their last 8 games after hitting four or more homers in their last game. The Phillies play their fifth straight game on the road — and they have lost 22 of their last 36 games after playing four or more games on the road. They have lost 5 straight games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher — and they have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road as an underdog priced at +150. Sanchez gets the start for Philadelphia with his 2-4 record along with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 16 starts. He makes just his fifth start of the season on the road after giving up four runs in 7 1/3 innings at home against the Braves last Wednesday. In his last seven starts since the beginning of August, Sanchez has a 4.28 ERA. The Phillies have lost 4 of their 5 games this season with Sanchez pitching against an NL East rival. The Braves crush left-handed pitching — they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against lefties with a .288 batting average, a .348 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .855. Atlanta leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitching.

FINAL: TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 74 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 50 times with 14 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 52 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. Philadelphia has only been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher 10 times this season — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 7 times with two upset wins and only one loss by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (65-81) has won two games in a row after their   1-0 win at Baltimore on Wednesday. Philadelphia (79-67) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cardinals are out of the playoff hunt but they are playing good baseball with four victories in their last six games and seven wins in their last ten games. They have won 44 of their last 67 games in September. Thompson gets the ball with a 5-5 record along with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 22 games which includes six starts. The left-hander has been quite effective since late July — in his last 37 innings, he has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with 40 strikeouts. Those recent numbers come close to matching his season-long sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.61 moving forward. He has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.53 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in 20 2/3 innings — but in his 30 1/3 innings at home, he owns a 2.37 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252. He faces a slumping Phillies team that is hitting only .225 in their last seven games with a .315 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .726. Philadelphia has a .324 on-base percentage this season — and the Cardinals have won 5 of their last 7 games with Thompson their starting pitcher facing a National League team with an on-base percentage of .325 or lower. The Phillies have lost four of their last five games — and they have lost 19 of their last 32 games after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road after playing seven straight games at home — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games after playing six or more games in a row. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 — but in his 16 starts on the road, he has a 5.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259. He has been rocked in his two starts this month as he owns an 11.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in those nine innings. The Phillies have lost 25 of their last 40 games in September with Nola on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: The above team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are grabbing for this situation. The Cardinals have covered +1.5 Run-Line in 38 of their last 58 games as a money-line underdog with 27 upset wins and 11 losses by one run. Philadelphia has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their last 26 games when priced as a money-line favorite above -110 to -150 with 12 upset losses and five one-run losses. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Month with St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (69-77) has snapped a three-game losing streak after their 3-1 victory on the road against the Giants in the second game of this series. San Francisco (74-71) was on a four-game winning streak before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They managed only four base hits in the victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had less than five base hits. Cleveland has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing four straight games where they did not score more than four runs. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Allen gets the ball with his 7-7 record along with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander remains steady in the second half of the season with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in his last seven starts since the beginning of August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.36 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in 11 starts at home. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Allen their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Allen has thrived in day games as well with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as compared to his 4.18 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in  15 starts at night. He faces a Giants team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .240 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .682. San Francisco ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 29th and 28th in the league in those categories since July 1st. The Giants have played 23 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They are only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 home games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Harrison who has a 1-1 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his first four starts at the MLB level. The rookie has not allowed more than three earned runs in three of his four starts — he gave up six runs in San Diego in the outlier. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.93 moving forward. In his two starts at home, Harrison has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190.  He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616 during that span. Against left-handed pitching, Cleveland is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .242 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .677. The Guardians rank 26th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they remain 25th and 26th in MLB since August 1st in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-47) has lost two games in a row after their 10-6 loss at home to the Cardinals in the second game of this series last night. St. Louis (60-78) has won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has rebounded to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. They were on a six-game winning streak before dropping their last two contests — and they have won 13 of their last 14 games at home after losing their last game by four or more runs. They have also won 44 of their last 62 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They still have a 44-23 record this season — and they have won 13 of their last 17 games at home. Atlanta has also won 14 of their last 19 home games when priced as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Their ace gets the ball tonight on a personal four-game winning streak after allowing four runs in six innings on the road against the Dodgers in an 8-6 victory last Thursday — he had only given up one earned run in his last three starts combined. He sported a 5-1 record in August with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 46 strikeouts and only 13 bases-on-balls. For the season, the right-hander has a 16-4 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 27 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.76 and 2.87 moving forward. He also has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 13 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 16 games at home with Strider on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at -200 or higher. He faces a Cardinals lineup that is hitting only .237 in their last seven games with a .304 on-base percentage. 204 batting average even after yesterday’s scoring outburst. St. Louis ranks 21st and 22nd in MLB since August 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 6 games after winning their previous game — and they have lost 17 of their last 21 games after a victory by four or more runs. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Hudson who has a 5-1 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 56 innings which includes seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.08 and 4.93 moving forward. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he owns a 3.43 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 39 1/3 innings — but those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in 16 2/3 innings on the road. He only has three Quality Starts in his last six starts overall — and now he faces this Braves team that leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 67 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 45 times with 12 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 45 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 32 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. The Cardinals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their 9 games this season when priced as a money-line dog at +145 or higher — and none of those three +1.5 Run-Line covers were from losses by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-70) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 victory on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (56-76) has lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have scored only four combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two runs in any of those four games. The Cards have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 40 of their last 55 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in four straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games where they did not score more than two runs. And in their last 7 games at home, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Thompson gets the start tonight with his 3-5 record along with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 35 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.43 and 3.08 moving forward. The left-hander has been getting excellent results since adding a slider/cutter pitch to his arsenal which is generating swinging strikes. Since he debuted the pitch on July 19th, Thompson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings. He has been much better at home this season where he has a 1.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 19 1/3 innings as opposed to his 6.89 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 15 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a slumping Padres offense that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .680 OPS during that span. San Diego has 36 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning their last game — including four of their last six contests. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Padres have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 36-46% of their games. They counter with Lugo who has a 5-6 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts consisting of six-inning efforts apiece. Furthermore, Lugo has held six of his last seven opponents to less than three earned runs — he sports a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP during those seven starts with 43 strikeouts in those 40 1/3 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lugo on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .169 batting average, a .246 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. THE SITUATION: Seattle (74-56) has won three straight games — as well as 11 of their last 12 — after their 3-2 victory against Kansas City on Sunday. Oakland (38-93) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle has been one of the best teams in baseball this month having won 19 of their last 23 games. They have overtaken Texas for first place in the AL West during this surge. This resurgence for a group that spent half the season underachieving after making the playoffs last year can be attributed mostly to the scorching-hot play of Juan Rodriguez. The sophomore put up underwhelming numbers (for him) in the first few months of the season — despite the underlying data which were pretty much in line with his spectacular rookie season. But the Regression Gods have made their presence felt recently as Rodriguez boasts a .386 batting average in the last 30 days with a .431 on-base percentage and an OPS of 1.054 over that span. In the last 30 days, he has blasted six home runs while driving in 29 runners and stealing 11 bases. Rodriguez is carrying this team — and 13 of their last 19 victories have been by more than one run. Seattle has won 15 of their last 17 games after winning their last game. They have also won 52 of their last 82 games after a victory by two runs or less. They have won 36 of their last 55 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while the Mariners have not committed an error in their last two games, they have then won 29 of their last 44 games after playing two games in a row without committing an error. Seattle stays at home where they have won 11 of their last 15 games — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. Woo gets his second start since returning from the injured list after dealing with forearm inflammation. The right-hander allowed only one run in four innings of work in Chicago against the White Sox last Tuesday. He looks ready to pitch at least five innings tonight. For the season, he has a 1-3 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 4.13 moving forward. And while he has been saddled with an 11.25 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a .324 opponent’s batting average in his two starts for day games, he has a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in his 10 starts at night. Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games with Woo pitching on five or six days of rest. He faces an A’s team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game against fellow AL West opponents with a .196 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .581. Oakland has lost 28 of their last 34 games against division rivals. They have lost 70 of their last 92 games after losing their previous game. They have scored only three combined runs in their last two games — and they have then lost 26 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have lost 11 of their last 14 games — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games on the road when priced as a +200 or higher money-line underdog. Muller gets the ball tonight with his 1-4 record with a 7.28 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in 13 appearances including 11 starts. And while he has a 5.25 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in his eight games at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 10.41 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in his five starts on the road. He faces this Mariners lineup that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .318 batting average, a .393 on-base percentage, and a .951 OPS during that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. I did take pause with this situation when considering that Seattle has only covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 34 games this season when priced above my -150 threshold (with six one-run wins and 13 upset losses). But the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 4 of their last 6 games when priced above -150 with just one-run and one upset loss in those six games. When Seattle has been priced at -200 or higher this season (as they are in this contest), they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 14 games (with three losses and three one-run wins). And they are playing the worst team in baseball who have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 7 of their last 10 games when priced at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Month is with the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-44) has won four straight games after their 7-3 victory on the road against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-63) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 31 of their last 49 games on the road Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three or more games in a row — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, in their last 27 games on the road in August, Atlanta has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Shuster gets his tenth start of the season carrying a 4-2 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.18 and 6.19 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 6.27 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants lineup that has a .267 batting average in their last seven games with a .322 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .731 during that span which compares favorably versus their .239 batting average, a .306 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .694 for the season. San Francisco ranks eighth and sixth this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Braves scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total against National League teams scoring 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Beck who has a 3-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings. This will be his first start of the season — and the metrics call for regression even before the typical drop in effectiveness when a pitcher attempts to stretch out for more than one inning. His SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.03 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in 35 1/3 innings as opposed to his 2.25 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in 32 innings.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .273 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Atlanta ranks first and second in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created this season on the road against right-handed pitching — and they rank second in both those categories since June. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with  Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (78-51) has four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 5-3 victory against Colorado on Thursday. New York (61-66) has lost 10 of their last 11 games after their 6-5 loss to Washington yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay hit rock bottom on July 29th when their record fell to 62-44 — only four games above .500 since their blazing 14-0 start to the season. But the Rays have since gone 15-7 with nine victories in their last 12 games. They have won 13 of their last 17 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have won their last two games by two runs or less in their last two contests, they have then won 13 of their last 21 games after winning their last two games by less than three runs. Tampa Bay has won 41 of their last 61 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 12 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. Eflin gets the ball coming off six innings of one-run ball in his last start in Los Angeles against the Angels last Saturday. The right-hander has a 13-7 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 24 starts. In his four starts this month, he has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.44 and 3.27 moving forward. And while he allowed six runs in just three innings in his last start at home against Cleveland on August 13th, he still owns a 3.05 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 14 starts at home as opposed to his 4.37 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts on the road. Tampa Bay has won 11 of Eflin’s 14 starts at home this season — and they have won 30 of their last 40 home games with him on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .201 batting average, a .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. New York ranks just 25th and 24th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Manager Aaron Boone is a lame duck working his last five weeks with the team before finally getting fired with the hot seat now moving towards general manager Brian Cashman. The Yankees are now five games under .500 after enduring a nine-game losing streak during this recent slump — that was the first time since 1982 that the Bronx Bombers lost nine games in a row. New York has lost 10 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they only hit .166 in their last five games, they have then lost 11 of their last 33 games on the road when not hitting higher than .225 in their last five games. The Yankees have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road when price as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Cole who has a 10-4 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.75 moving forward. He has struggled this month with a 5.25 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .247 opponent’s batting average in four starts. New York has lost 8 of their last 10 games in August — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with Cole pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Cole faces a Rays lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .345 batting average, a .399 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .964. Tampa Bay has a .458 on-base percentage in their last five games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after posting an on-base percentage of .375 or higher in their last five contests. Tampa Bay still ranks eighth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank sixth and third in those categories this month. 25*  MLB American League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (80-44) has lost two games in a row after their 10-4 loss at home to the Mets last night. New York (59-67) has won five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should bounce back tonight as they have won 20 of their last 24 games at home after a loss by four or more runs. They were heavy favorites priced in the -220 for that game yesterday — and they have won 16 of their last 23 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival priced at -150 or higher. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs to a divisional rival — and they have won 5 of the last 6 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game. Additionally, the Braves have won 14 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss at home when they were priced at -200 or higher. And while Atlanta has lost their last two games against the Mets after beating them by a 21-3 score on August 12th, they have won 44 of their last 64 games when playing with double-revenge. They have won 10 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set at 10 or higher — and they have won 5 straight home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 33 games against fellow NL East rivals. Elder gets the start with his 9-4 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.12 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. And in his last two home starts, the right-hander has allowed only one earned run — good for a 0.64 ERA with a 0.57 WHIP in those 14 innings. He faces a Mets team that may be experiencing a dead cat bounce but who remains eight games under .500. New York has lost 14 of their last 23 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also lost 24 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog including 9 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog priced from +175 to +250. They counter with Megill who has a 7-6 record along with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 18 starts. While the right-hander has been solid at home with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in nine starts, those numbers skyrocket to an 8.20 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in nine starts on the road. New York is winless in their 5 road games this season with Megill on the mound pitching as the underdog. In his last six starts, he has been saddled with an 8.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. Now he faces a Braves team that ranks first and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in those categories since the beginning of July.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 60 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 40 times with 11 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 38 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 27 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets covered the +1.5 Run-Line last night for the first time in their last seven games when priced as a money-line dog priced at +145 or higher — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 11 games this season under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (67-56) has won two of their last three games after their 12-3 victory on the road against the Nationals yesterday. Washington (56-68) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback. The Little League Classic is being played on a neutral field at the Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Connecticut.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Philadelphia has scored 28 combined runs in their last three games with at least seven runs in each of those contests. The Phillies have won 19 of their last 22 games after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games — and they have won 38 of their last 56 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. All three of those games finished Over the Total — and Philadelphia has won 17 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. The Phillies have also won 17 of their last 22 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with his 9-5 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.52 and 3.54 moving forward. The right-hander has ripped off seven straight Quality Starts — posting a 2.76 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in those 45 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and just seven walks in those seven starts. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 13 games with Wheeler on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. He has a 3.24 ERA in his 13 starts on the road as opposed to his 4.07 ERA in 11 starts at home — and the Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Wheeler on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a Nationals team that ranks 24th and 25th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Washington has lost 19 of their last 25 games after losing their previous game by eight or more runs — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss at home by eight or more runs. The Nationals have still won six of their last eight games — but they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. And while they have allowed seven or more runs in three straight games, they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after allowing seven or more runs. They counter with Williams who has a 5-7 record with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.85 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 — but those numbers rise to a 5.52 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in 13 starts on the road. While Williams is pitching for the technical home team tonight — I conclude that his better success at home relates to sleeping in his own bed, his familiarity with that mound, and performing in front of his home fans rather than pitching at the beginning of an inning. Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games batting last with Williams their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. He faces this hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .265 batting average, a .343 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .847 during that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Philadelphia has not been reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line when priced as a money-line favorite above -150 — until recently. Since August 5th, the Phillies have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in five of their last seven situations when priced above my -150 threshold — and their two failures were straight-up losses (rather than one-run victories). Lastly, the five previous Little League Classic contests were all decided by three or more runs. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (67-55) has won four straight games after their 2-0 win on the road against the Astros yesterday. Houston (70-53) had won two games in a row before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have won all four of these games by two runs or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning three games in a row by two runs or less. Granted, Julio Rodriguez is tearing it up right now — he is 13 of 17 in his last three games — so taking an Under against a left-handed starting pitcher gave me pause. But the Mariners have stranded at least 10 baserunners in four straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row where they left 10 or more runners on base. Gilbert gets the ball tonight with his 10-5 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.65 moving forward. He has been outstanding since the beginning of July boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in those 49 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 11 starts at home. Houston has played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting shutout by an AL West rival. Furthermore, the Astros have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where two or fewer combined runs were scored. They counter with Valdez who has a 9-8 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is meeting expectations given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.29 moving forward. He returns home to Minute Maid Park for the first time since he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland on August 1st in an effort where he only walked one batter. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.44 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in ten starts on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros struggle against home against right-handed pitching -- they rank 25th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted handed pitching. And since July 1st, Houston ranks 27th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (78-42) has won three games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 2-0 victory against the New York Yankees on Wednesday. San Francisco (64-57) has lost six of their last eight games after their 6-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta is a juggernaut right now — and all six of their victories in their last seven games have been by more than one run. They only managed three hits in their win against the Yankees on Wednesday -- but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games after not scratching out more than four hits in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have won 53 of their last 77 games after winning their last contest — including winning nine of their last 13 games after a win during this current hot streak. They have also won 13 of their last 18 games after a day off. They stay at home where they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games at home. The Braves have also won 27 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite (more on that in the Final Take regarding their success in covering the -1.5 Run-Line). While Atlanta’s Achilles’ heel is their starting rotation that has been hit hard by the injury bug, their ace goes tonight. Strider has a 13-4 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.77 and 2.87 moving forward. He has been more effective at home at Truist Park where he has a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.24 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road. The Braves have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Strider on the hill with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also won 12 of their last 13 games this season with Strider pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -175 to -250 range. And in their last 12 games with Strider looking to extend a winning streak, Atlanta has won 11 of these contests. He faces a cold Giants’ lineup that is scoring 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .216 batting average, a .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .602. San Francisco ranks 26th and 27th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 30 of their last 48 games after scoring less than two runs in their last game including seven of their last eight games after scoring one run or less. San Francisco goes back on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The Giants have also lost 62 of their last 87 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +200 or higher — and they have lost four of these last five situations. They counter with Cobb who has a 6-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander is struggling as of late after giving up six home runs in his three starts this month. He has a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .328 during that span. He has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.25 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts — but in his 12 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .304 opponent’s batting average. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 15 games on the road with Cobb on the hill. He faces this Braves Murderer’s Row that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .291 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .910 during that span. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 66 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 39 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 35 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 26 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Giants have been priced as a money-line underdog only nine times this season — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line five times (with four upset wins and a single one-run loss). While San Francisco’s numbers are not evidence to support this play, I mention it because their four multiple run loss in those nine games (in a small sample size) is not enough of a red flag to dismiss the overwhelming evidence supporting the Braves in this situation. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (76-42) has won four of their last five games — as well as six of their last eight contests — after their 11-3 victory against the Yankees in the opening game of this series last night. New York (60-59) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has lost 7 games in a row after allowing ten or more runs — and they have lost 6 straight games after a loss by eight or more runs. The Yankees have also lost 7 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where their opponent scored ten or more runs. New York has also lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games. Severino continues to go to the mound for this team given the recent injuries to Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes — but he has been a disaster. The right-hander holds a 2-7 record with an 8.06 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 14 appearances this season. He has been even worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.89 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .373 in his eight games (seven starts) on the road. The Yankees have lost 8 of their last 9 games with Severino starting on the road as an underdog. He faces a red-hot Braves lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .335 batting average, a .446 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .966. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories. Atlanta has won 51 of their last 75 games after winning their last game — and they have won 31 of their last 44 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves scored ten or more runs now 16 times this season — and they have won 12 of their 15 prior games after scoring ten or more runs this season. They have also won 19 of their last 25 home games when priced as the favorite in the -175 to -250 price range. They counter with Elder who has an 8-4 record with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home where he enjoys a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games at home with Elder on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers with a .229 batting average, a .229 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .695. New York ranks 24th and 22nd in MLB this seasoning weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs-Created on the road against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 64 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 33 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 24 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Yankees have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their last 8 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher with just one of those three covers being via a one-run loss. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Atlanta (74-41) has won straight games — and four of their last five — after taking the opening game of their doubleheader with the Mets this afternoon by a 21-3 score. New York (52-63) has lost two in a row — and nine of their last ten — with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Braves crushed the Mets’ bullpen this afternoon to the tune of 16 runs in the 4 1/3 innings that New York used relievers — and some of those guys may need to be called on tonight. Atlanta has now won 24 of their last 30 games against fellow NL East rivals. They have won 19 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 28 of their last 42 games on the road when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 34 games when priced as a -200 or higher favorite — and the number looks even better when taking the Run-Line that we are taking into account (I am saving that for the Final Take). Strider gets the start with his 12-4 record along with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.67 and 2.78 moving forward.  The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.69 ERA in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.16 ERA in 12 starts at home. Atlanta has won 7 of their last 8 road games with Strider on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Mets lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .303 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .657. New York ranks 26th and 20th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 22 of their last 34 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, they have lost 31 of their last 39 games as a money-line underdog — and they are winless in their last 5 games at home priced as a money-line dog in the +150 to +200 range. They counter with Quintana who has an 0-3 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his four starts this season that was delayed as he recovered from rib surgery. The sabermetrics indicate he has been fortunate with those frontline numbers given his SIERA and xFIP of 5.01 and 4.95. The left-hander had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP last year for the Pirates and Cardinals — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.02 and 3.72 which contributes to the case that he is not to be trusted. Now he faces a red-hot Braves lineup licking their shops after entering the day scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .315 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .858 during that span all before plating 21 runners in Game One. And Atlanta crushes left-handed pitching as they lead MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank second in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 62 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 35 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 31 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 22 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of the 8 occasions they have been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 (losing all eight times) — and they have lost by more than one run in 4 straight games when priced as a +145 or higher money-line dog. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-54) has won lost four straight games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (57-54) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Arizona has scored no more than four runs in eight straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing five straight games where they did not allow more than four runs. They have played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total in Interleague play. Nelson gets the start with his 6-5 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home at Chase Field where he has been saddled with a 8.01 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .356 in ten starts — but he has thrived away from that hitter’s ballpark as he sports a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts on the road. In his last five starts on the road, he owns a 1.87 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP while holding three of his opponents to just one run. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Nelson pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .660 during that span. Minnesota has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games — but they have held four straight opponents to three runs or less with three of those opponents only scoring two runs. The Twins have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Maeda who has a 2-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Those frontline numbers are skewed by one disastrous start at home against the New York Yankees when he gave up ten runs in three innings of work. He went on the injured list after that effort with a tricep injury that kept him on the shelf for two months. Since his return to the mound in June, he has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts. His velocity is back up which has helped him strike out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings — and he has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts — but take away that disaster against the Yankees, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: While Arizona ranks ninth and tenth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — but they have dropped to 17th and 18th in those categories since the beginning of July. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 batting average, a .243 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .523 during that span. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Comber. THE SITUATION: San Diego (52-54) has won three straight games after their 5-3 loss at home against Texas yesterday. Colorado (41-64) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 2-0 win against Oakland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have held their last five opponents to three runs or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than three runs in four or more games in a row. San Diego has played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played five straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 11 or higher. Lugo gets the start looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been quite good since returning from a stint on the injured list last month. In his last seven starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. He has also been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in eight starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in seven starts at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound following a victory in their last game. He faces a Rockies team that leaves way too many runners on base. While Colorado ranks sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers, they only rank 29th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Rockies have fallen to ranking just 21st in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers — and they still rank 29th in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. This team has also traded away two of their best bats with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk being shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Colorado has played 25 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after shutting out their previous opponent. The Rockies have also played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. And in their last 9 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Gomber who has an 8-8 record with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 21 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective lately as he has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less with three of those four starts being at home at Coors Field. Gomber has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in his last six starts — and he has issued only two walks in his last seven starts! In his last four starts at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Gomber on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He will be supported by a defense that has not committed an error in two straight games — and the Rockies have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after not committing an error in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 19th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (52-52) was on a three-game winning streak before their 3-0 loss on the road against the White Sox in the second game of this series. Chicago (42-63) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games. They have played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow AL Central rivals. And in their last 52 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, they have played 32 of those games Under the Total. Allen gets the start looking to build on his 4-3 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts at home. He faces a White Sox line that ranks 29th and 28th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 30th in those categories since June 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .233 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .655 during that span. The White Sox have scored three runs or less in three of their last four games. They have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a game where three or more combined runs were scored. The White Sox have also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Clevinger who has been activated off the injured list for this start. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has been better at home where he owns a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in five starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA and a .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland ranks 22nd and 21st in MLB this season since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-48) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-43) has lost three of their last four games after an 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played five straight Unders while not giving up more than three runs in those contests. But they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Williamson gets the ball with a 2-2 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.07 and 5.10 moving forward. He has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 win seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 batting average, a .375 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .877 during that span. Los Angeles ranks sixth and second this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. They have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by six or more runs. The Dodgers have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They counter with Miller who has a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts as opposed to his 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank eighth in MLB since the beginning of May in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Arizona (55-47) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory at home against the Cardinals last night. St. Louis (45-57) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona was trailing 1-0 going into the bottom of the eighth inning before they scored three times to take a two-run lead. Kevin Ginkel then came on in the top of the ninth to secure the victory by registering his third save of the season as he seems to have become manager Torey Lovullo’s trusted closer at this moment. The Diamondbacks have won 24 of their last 36 games after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. They have also won 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. Additionally, Arizona has won 31 of their last 54 games after winning their last game. They have won 23 of their last 34 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games after losing four of their last five games. They complete this series this afternoon in this getaway game at home where they have won 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Gallen gets the start boasting an 11-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a sterling 1.48 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.97 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 11 starts on the road. Arizona has won 20 of their last 25 games at home with Gallen on the mound. St. Louis has lost 14 of their last 22 games after blowing a save opportunity in their last game. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Cardinals have lost 27 of their last 44 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They complete their seven-game road trip in this afternoon getaway game having lost 9 of their last 14 games after playing six or more games in a row on the road. St. Louis has lost 15 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Flaherty who has a 7-6 record with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.70 and 4.41 moving forward. He has a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in eight starts at home — and those numbers rise to a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in his 11 starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 17 of their last 28 games with Flaherty on the hill on the road as an underdog. Flaherty also has a rough 5.66 ERA in his nine-day starts this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks rank eighth and tenth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. THE SITUATION: San Diego (48-52) was on a two-game winning streak before their 3-1 loss at Detroit yesterday. Pittsburgh (43-56) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-5 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego had won four of their last five games before their loss to the Tigers yesterday. The Padres have held their last six opponents to four runs or less — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than four runs in four or more games in a row. Darvish gets the start tonight looking to continue his recent good form. He has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts — posting a 0.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in those 12 innings while striking out 16 batters. He has a 7-6 record with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 17 starts this season — but the deeper sabermetrics indicate he has deserved better with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.77 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.83 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eight starts as opposed to his 4.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts on the road. San Diego has won 16 of their last 23 games at home when Darvish is on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games when Darvish is on the hill after giving up one earned run or less in two straight starts. He should continue his good run tonight against this Pirates team that ranks last in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .634 in that span. The Pirates started well in April — but they have since cratered having lost 14 of their last 18 games this month. Pittsburgh has lost 27 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They continue their road trip having lost 17 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. They counter with Priester who is making his second-career MLB appearance. He got his hard in his MLB debut last Monday as he allowed seven runs in 5 1/3 innings at home against Cleveland. The Pirates are very high on the 22-year-old — but he only had a 4.31 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 87 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season. He faces a hot-hitting Padres lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .759 OPS. San Diego ranks sixth and third this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. These two teams last played on June 29th when the Pirates completed a three-game sweep (all upsets wins at home) with a 5-4 win — but San Diego has won 12 of their last 14 games when looking to avenge three-straight upset losses to their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego is inconsistent — but when they win, it usually is by multiple runs. In fact, in their 30 games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 price threshold, all 17 of their victories have been by one run. They have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 16 games when priced above -150. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 30 games this season priced as a money-pine underdog priced at +145 or higher with just two losses by just one run — and they have lost five of their last seven games (all by more than one run) under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on the Padres by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-44) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (28-73) has won three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game — including 12 of these last 18 circumstances this season. Houston completes their nine-game road trip today — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their previous seven games on the road. The Astros have also played 38 of their last 58 road games Under the Total when priced as a -125 or higher favorite. Brown gets the start with his 6-7 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are promising with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.42 and 3.05 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.79 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts as compared to his 4.89 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276  in eight starts at home. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with Brown pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA in their last five games — and the Astros have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Brown and the Houston pen face an A’s team that is only scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average. Oakland ranks 30th and 29th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival in their last game. The A’s have also played 14 of their last 23 games at home as an underdog priced from +150 to +200. They complete a ten-game home stand this afternoon — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing six or more games in a row at home. They counter with Medina who has a 3-7 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 13 games including nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be giving about a run less per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.47 moving forward. Most of the damage against him has taken place on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 32 2/3 innings — he has a more respectable 4.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 32 2/3 innings at home. Furthermore, the right-hander has made an adjustment recently that is generating better results. He has introduced a sinker into his arsenal which he is throwing in place of his four-seamer — and he is using his slider more to offset this new pitch. Medina has a 3.12 ERA in his last five appearances with 28 strikeouts in those 26 innings. He faces an Astros lineup missing the injured Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — they are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Games against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (51-48) has won six of their last eight games after their 9-4 victory against the White Sox in the opening game of this series last night. Chicago (41-58) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota struggles against good teams — they have just a 25-32 record against teams with a .500 or better record. But the Twins do feast on bad teams as they have a 27-17 record against teams with a losing record after last night’s victory. They have won 10 of their 16 games this month. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. And in their last 39 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 24 of these contests. Gray gets the start looking to get back on track after surrendering five and six earned runs in his last two starts. Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games when Gray is on the mound after allowing five or more earned runs in two straight games. He has a 4-4 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts at home as compared to his 3.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in nine starts on the road. He should bounce back tonight against this White Sox team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .230 batting average, a .282 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .654. They rank 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Chicago continues to implode as they play their eighth straight game away from home. They have lost 10 of their 15 games this month — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after playing their previous six games on the road. The White Sox have lost 21 of their last 35 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 30 of their last 47 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Cease who has a 4-3 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.04 ERA in ten starts — but his ERA rises to a 4.33 ERA in his ten starts on the road. He also has a 4.52 ERA in his 11 starts under the lights at night. Cease has struggled this month with a 4.96 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a .299 opponent’s batting average in his three starts in July.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .882 during that span. After underwhelming with their bats most of the season, Minnesota ranks third in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. THE SITUATION: New York (50-47) has lost four games in a row after their 7-3 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Wednesday. Kansas City (28-70) has lost five of their last seven games after their 3-0 loss at home against Detroit yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York is struggling right now — but returning home to Yankee Stadium should help after completing a six-game road trip. The Yankees have won 13 of their last 17 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games when priced from -175 to -200. New York has won 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after winning four of their last five games. The Yankees miss the injured Aaron Judge who remains out with his toe injury — they have not scored more than three runs in their last three games. But New York has won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. Schmidt gets the start as he looks to win his fourth straight start and improve on his 5-6 record along with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in 11 starts — and he has a 2.83 ERA in his last ten starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.93 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 12 games (11 starts) as opposed to his 4.85 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .273 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. He should thrive against a Royals team that ranks last in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they also rank last in those categories this month. Kansas City has lost 29 of their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest — and they have lost 21 of their last 26 games after scoring one run or less in their last game. Additionally, the  Royals have lost 12 straight games on the road where they scored one run or less in a loss to an AL Central rival. They only scored two runs in their previous game against the Tigers — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. On the road, they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .225 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .631. They counter with Marsh who has lost all three of his starts since being promoted to the major leagues. The right-hander has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his 15 innings of work. He is walking too many batters by averaging 4.8 bases-on-balls per nine innings. He has also already served up five homers.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying with this play. The Yankees may be struggling — but they are still taking care of business when priced as a big favorite. New York has won covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 12 of their 15 wins when priced higher than -150 (while getting upset five times in those situations. Kansas City has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 33 of their 49 games this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost by one run in these circumstances five times while pulling off the upset just 15 times. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month with New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. THE SITUATION: Detroit (42-52) has lost two of their last three games after their 11-10 loss on the road against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (28-68) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Detroit has bounced back to win 11 of their last 17 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest — and they have won 24 of their last 39 games after a high-scoring game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Tigers have still won 8 of their last 12 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games overall when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. Rodriguez gets the start coming off a solid outing where he allowed two runs and three hits in five innings of work at Seattle on Friday in his second start since returning from the injured list. The lefty has a 5-5 record with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 13 starts — and he has been consistent when pitching on the road where he has a 2.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts. His teams have won 23 of their 31 road games when he is their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Kansas City has lost 11 of their last 12 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games after scoring 10 or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Royals have lost 8 of their last 12 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest. Kansas City took advantage of almost all their scoring opportunities last night as they only stranded three runners — but they have then lost 11 of their last 12 games after stranding three or fewer runners in their last contest. The Royals have still lost 29 of their last 42 games at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 24 of their last 36 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Yarbrough who has returned from his extended time on the shelf after getting nailed in the head by a line drive in May. The left-hander has a 2-4 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings. But while he has a respectable 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .262 opponent’s batting average in his 17 2/3 innings on the road, he has been saddled with a 7.36 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in his 14 2/3 innings at home. His teams have lost 16 of his 25 starts at home when the Total is set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit ranks 14th and 13th respectively since June 1st on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created — and they rank 11th and 9th in those analytics since the beginning of July. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (57-36) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 6-4 loss at home to the Dodgers in the opening game of this Interleague series. Los Angeles (54-39) won for the seventh time in their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore had scored at least five runs in five straight games before only scoring the four runs last night. The Orioles have won 22 of their last 35 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 21 of their last 32 games after winning five or six of their last seven contest. In their last 43 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 31 of those games including 14 of their last 19 at home priced up to -150. They have a big pitching edge tonight with Wells on the mound. The right-hander has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts). He has been a model of consistency by allowing two runs or less in eight straight starts since late May. He boasts a 2.83 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP during that span. Wells has also been more effective at home at Camden Yards where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in nine starts as opposed to his 3.88 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in his nine appearances on the road. Baltimore has won 5 of their last 7 games with Wells on the mound priced in the +/- 125 money-line price range. The Dodgers are slumping this month with their bats — they rank 17th and 19th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The injuries that have ravaged the Los Angeles pitching staff require manager Dave Roberts to turn to Grove tonight despite his 1-2 record, 6.89 ERA, and a 1.55 WHIP in 47 innings. He has allowed four earned runs in five of his last seven appearances. The right-hander has been solid at home where he has a 4.83 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 31 2/3 innings including five starts in his seven appearances — but in his 15 1/3 innings on the road which includes three starts in his four games, he has an 11.15 ERA, a 2.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .427. Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 21 games on the road as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 14 of their last 21 games as a dog priced up to +150. The Dodgers are only hitting .237 on the road with a .318 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .753.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles rank ninth and seventh at home against right-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since June 1st. 25* MLB TBS-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. THE SITUATION: New York (48-39) won the first two games of this series before their 6-3 loss at home to the Orioles yesterday. Baltimore (50-35) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: New York had a 2-0 lead going into the sixth inning yesterday — but Nick Ramirez and Michael King gave up four runs in that inning to give Baltimore a lead that they would not relinquish. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 9 games after a blown save in their last game. They have also won 4 games in a row after losing their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after getting upset by an AL East rival in their last game. After struggling last month after losing Aaron Judge to his toe injury, the Bronx Bombers are playing better as of late. They have won five of their last seven games — and they are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game during that stretch with an OPS of .809. New York has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Yankees won 8 of their last 13 games at home as an underdog including five of their eight home games as a money-line dog this season. Severino gets the start looking to bounce back from allowing seven earned runs in four innings in St. Louis against the Cardinals on Saturday. He has a 1-3 record this season with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in eight starts. Most of the damage has taken place on the road where the right-hander has a 9.27 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .360 in five starts. But in his three starts at home, Severino has a 2.55 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182. In his career at Yankee Stadium, he is very comfortable sporting a 3.41 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in 335 innings. His previous start was at home against the explosive Texas Rangers and he pitched six scoreless innings against them. New York has won 10 of their last 13 games at home with Severino their starting pitcher. Now he faces a slumping Orioles team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .218 Batting Average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost six of seven games before their win last night. But they have lost 44 of their last 59 games after upsetting a division rival in their last game including seven of their 11 contests under those circumstances this season. They counter with Bradish who has a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.00 and 3.83 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.81 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts — but in his eight starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.46 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts. The Orioles have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. They have also lost 12 of their 18 games against AL East rivals with Bradish on the hill. Baltimore has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have been upset in their last 4 games when priced as the money-line favorite. The Yankees have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their last 24 games as a money-line underdog with 14 upset wins and another 4 losses by just one run. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-37) has won two in a row — and six of their last eight contests — after their 2-1 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Boston (40-42) has lost five games in a row after their 2-0 loss to Miami on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto is playing better baseball as of late as they are finally beginning to meet their huge preseason expectations. The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 55 of their last 76 games at home at the Rogers Centre against teams with a losing record. Berrios gets the start looking to build on his 8-5 record along with a 1.22 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander struggled last season with a 5.23 ERA even though the deeper sabermetrics indicated he should have been giving up more than a run fewer per start. He started slowly this season by giving up 14 runs in his first two starts — but in his 14 starts since, he boasts a 2.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 85 1/3 innings. He has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in six starts as opposed to his 4.30 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in ten starts on the road including those opening two clunkers back in April. Toronto has won 17 of their last 19 games at home with Berrios on the mound and is priced as a -110 or higher favorite. He should pitch well against this Red Sox team that ranks 28th in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox managed only four hits against the Marlins yesterday — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after failing to generate more than four base hits in their last game. Boston has lost 39 of their last 52 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. They have only scored four combined runs in their last four games while not topping two runs in any of these games — and they have then lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They have also lost 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Paxton who has a 3-1 record with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in eight starts. But while the left-hander has done his best work at home this season with a 1.69 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in three starts at Fenway Park, those numbers rise to a 4.10 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in eight starts on the road. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 37 of their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 20 of their last 26 road games with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. Boston has also lost 20 of their last 28 games against the Blue Jays — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against them in Toronto. The Blue Jays rank eighth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, Toronto is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average and a .796 slugging percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays have lost their last four games against the Red Sox after an 11-5 loss in Fenway on May 24th. Toronto has won 10 of their last 15 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have won 5 straight games when avenging a loss where they allowed ten or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (42-38) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 3-1 victory in the second game of their series with the Orioles. Baltimore (48-30) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Cincinnati has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Weaver who has a 1-2 record with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323 in six starts as opposed to his 1.47 WHIP and a .295 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. He has been crushed this month with a 10.80 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .368 in his four starts in June. He faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth and fifth respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank third in both those metrics since the beginning of June. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gibson who has an 8-5 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in nine starts on the road. And in his four starts this month, Gibson has a 5.75 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank sixth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-27) has won three games in a row — and 11 in their last 12 contests — after their 4-1 win at home against the Twins in the opening game of this series. Minnesota (40-40) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta is flexing their muscles as perhaps the best team in baseball while being led by Ronald Acuna who is on his way to his first MVP season. They should continue to build off their momentum tonight as they have won 35 of their 50 games this season after winning their previous game — and they have won 38 of their last 54 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They have also won 21 of their last 29 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves have won 37 of their last 52 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games in Interleague play. Atlanta has also won 42 of their last 62 home games against teams with a winning record. Elder gets the start looking to build on his 5-1 record with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts. The 24-year-old may not have the elite stuff that leads to ERA crowns — but his sinker is nasty that is generating ground balls in 57.1% of the batted balls he is allowing into play so he should continue to be a high-end starter for the Braves. In his eight starts at night, he has a 2.16 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Atlanta has won 9 of their last 13 home games with Elder on the mound and is priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Twins team that ranks 26th in MLB on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since May 1st. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 36 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Twins are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .218 Batting Average, a .288 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have lost 10 of their last 15 games after scoring no more than one run in their last game. They have not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — but Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. They have lost 37 of their last 53 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games in Interleague play. They counter with Ryan who has an 8-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 15 starts. The 27-year-old right-hander is enjoying a breakout season and comes off a complete game shutout at home against Boston last Thursday — but Minnesota has lost 4 of their 6 games this season when Ryan is following up a start where he did not allow more than an earned run. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.69 moving forward — and he does have a 3.45 ERA in his four starts this month so the Regression Gods seem to be making their impression known. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.70 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in seven starts — but he has been more hittable on the road where those numbers rise to a 3.26 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in eighth starts. The Twins have lost 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 10 of their last 13 games against the Braves.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta may have the best lineup in MLB — and they are scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .308 Batting Average, a .381 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .967. They have won 19 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 38 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Braves lead MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 9:40 PM ET on  Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Seattle (37-39) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss in Baltimore to the Orioles yesterday. Washington (30-47) has won two straight games after their 8-3 win at San Diego on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. They return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Castillo gets the start looking to build on his 4-6 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been at his best at home where he owns a 2.03 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in six starts on the road. After experiencing a drop in the velocity of his fastball at the beginning of the season, he is now averaging 97 miles per hour with his four-seamer while topping out at 99 MPH at times which is right in line with his velocity at his peak last season. In his last six starts, Castillo has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in those 35 2/3 innings. Now he gets a tasty matchup against a Nationals team that ranks 27th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this month. They have lost 43 of their last 62 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Despite their two-game winning streak, Washington has still lost 15 of their last 20 games — and they have lost 37 of their last 52 games after a win. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row. They stay on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Williams counters for the Nationals with his 4-4 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.81 and 4.84 moving forward. In his four starts this month, he has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 which is right in line with those analytics. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .347 — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .291. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Williams on the mound with the Total set from 7-8.5. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has won 40 of their last 55 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. While these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their 13 victories this season when priced above -150. Washington has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 22 losses when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-33) has won four games in a row after their 8-7 victory at home against the Astros yesterday. Houston (41-36) has lost two games in a row and seven of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is beginning to heat up — and they tend to keep building off their momentum when they start to get rolling like this when playing at home. The Dodgers have won 51 of their last 64 games at home after winning three or more games in a row — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also won 49 of their last 70 games at home against teams with a winning record. This season, Los Angeles has won 15 of their last 19 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gonsolin gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has been consistently outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .123 in his career 32 games (31 starts) in his career spanning 163 innings. The Dodgers have won 25 of those 31 career Gonsolin starts at Chavez Ravine. He should pitch well against this Astros team that has a .237 Batting Average with a .299 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675 against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks just 14th and 13th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank just 20th and 19th in those metrics since the beginning of June. The Astros have lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by just one run. They have also lost 7 of their last 11 games when attempting to avenge a loss by one run. The Astros have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against teams with a winning record. They have lost 6 in a row overall to teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play. The counter with Brown who has a 6-4 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP  in 14 starts. The 25-year-old right-hander started the season strong with a 2.37 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP in his five starts in April. But since the beginning of May, the rookie has struggled with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last nine starts. Brown is only inducing swinging strikes 10.7% of the time which is below the MLB average. The league seems to have caught up with his pitches after his great start.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers rank 5th and 3rd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 5th in both categories since the beginning of May. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (38-26) has lost two games in a row after their 5-1 loss to Atlanta yesterday. New York (34-40) has lost four of their last five games after a 10-8 loss at Houston on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia had won six games in a row before their last two games to the juggernaut Braves — and they have still won 13 of their last 17 games. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have been dominant at home where they have won 39 of their last 58 games at Citizens Bank Park. They have also won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Walker gets the ball looking to build on his outstanding effort at Oakland where he held the A’s to just one earned in eight innings of work last Friday. Walker’s teams have won 13 of their last 14 games when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. For the season, the right-hander has a 7-3 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 15 starts. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.25 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in nine starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game. Additionally, the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 road games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They have also lost 20 of their last 27 games on the road. They counter with Senga who has a 6-4 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The 30-year-old fork-baller has thrived at home where he sports a 2.52 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seven starts — but he has been saddled with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts on the road. He faces a Phillies team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (34-37) has lost seven games in a row after their 8-0 loss at home to the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (34-38) has won six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Pittsburgh should bounce back with an inspired effort tonight after getting embarrassed last night. The Pirates have won 9 of their last 11 home games after a loss by eight or more runs — and they have won 26 of their last 40 home games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also still won 11 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a losing record. Oviedo gets the start tonight looking to build on his 3-6 record along with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in seven starts as compared to his 5.08 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts on the road. He should pitch well against a Cubs team that has lost 13 of their last 18 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 17 games after a win by eight or more runs — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games after a win by eight or more runs against an NL Central rival. The Cubs have also lost 15 of their last 21 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Chicago has lost 19 of their last 27 games on the road despite their win yesterday — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 12 road games when priced in the +/- 125 price range, they have lost 8 of those contests. They counter with Stroman who has an 8-4 record with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander is a prime candidate for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.62 moving forward. Stroman has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 2.72 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in seven starts on the road. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Cubs’ offense is struggling without the injured Cody Bollinger in the middle of their lineup. While they rank 20th and 21st this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers, they fall to 26th and 27th in those metrics since May — and they are just 28th and 29th in those categories on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. The Pirates are middle of the pack at 16th and 17th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching this month. While I think Pittsburgh are live dogs to pull the upset, I prefer investing in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-33) has lost three of their last four games — and six of their last eight — after a 3-1 loss on the road against the Yankees on Saturday. New York (38-28) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees lineup is slumping without Aaron Judge who is on the injured list with a toe injury. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average, a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661 during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They beat the Red Sox by a 3-2 score in Game One on Friday — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored more than three runs. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning their previous game. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Schmidt gets the ball looking to build on his 2-6 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.93 moving forward. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in five starts. Schmidt has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts at night — and New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Schmidt as their starting pitcher in a night game. He faces a Mets team that has played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 Batting Average, a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have not scored more than three runs in four straight games and in seven of their last eight contests. The Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Bello who has a 3-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.77 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in three starts as compared to his 4.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Bello pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Red Sox have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Boston ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since May 1st. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us -- Frank.