12-08-19 |
Panthers +4 v. Falcons |
Top |
20-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-7) has lost four games in a row with their 29-21 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Atlanta (3-9) has lost two in a row with their 26-18 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina fired their long-time head coach, Ron Rivera, this week in this lost season. Perry Fewell takes over as the interim head coach in a role he also served on an interim basis in Buffalo back in 2009. Scott Turner has also been elevated to the interim offensive coordinator with his father, Norv, installed as an assistant to the head coach. Now the everyone’s job on the line, look for an inspired effort from this Panthers’ team today — and they also will have an element of surprise with the changes that will come from the assistant coaching staff changes. Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Panthers surrendered 362 yards to the Skins last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been a solid road team this season — they are 3-3 on the road while averaging a healthy 25.2 PPG. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, while Carolina has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons are playing for next year with an offensive line that was not fixed in the offseason (albeit, injuries did not help). Atlanta has allowed 40 sacks this season after the Saints dropped Matt Ryan nine times last week. The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season where they are scoring only 17.3 PPG while being outgained by -10.9 PPG. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina will also be motivated to avenge an ugly 29-3 upset loss at home to the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 54 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NFC South Underdog of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-19 |
Cowboys v. Bears +3 |
Top |
24-31 |
Win
|
105 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: After starting the season with three straight wins by double-digits, the Cowboys have lost six of their last nine games. Frankly, if Dallas was going to step-up, the moment was last week at home against a solid Bills team. And they outplayed the Bills by winning the first-down battle by a 32 to 22 margin while outgaining them by +70 yards. Yet this team is finding ways to lose. Dallas has not forced a turnover in four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Head coach Jason Garrett is clearly on the hot seat but perhaps the players are ready for a change. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The Bears average only 281.8 total YPG — but Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games against teams who do not average more than 285 total YPG. And while the Cowboys surrendered 356 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The team got more bad news this week with their star linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch, declared out for tonight’s game with a neck injury. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on Thursday Night Football. This has also been an unreliable team in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by up to 3 points. Chicago has gotten back to winning helped by facing a weak schedule — but that has given this team confidence. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 6 of the last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less. Mitchell Trubisky has been playing with more confidence and verve as well as of late. Over his last four games, he has completed 94 of his 145 passes (65%) for 979 yards with eight TD passes and just four interceptions for a solid 91.1 Quarterback Rating. Over their last three games, the Bears are averaging 340.3 total YPG which is almost 60 YPG above their 281.8 total YPG season average. Just average production on offense will make a big difference for this team that is still playing outstanding defense. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This elite defense makes this team a very dangerous home dog — they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home while going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. And while the Cowboys average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry, Chicago has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog getting up to a field goal. These are two playoff teams from last season who had deeper metrics that predicted the downturn we are now witnessing. However, Chicago is feeling a little better about themselves right now — and Dallas is a dome team favored on the road in cold weather with temperatures expected in the low-40s. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-19 |
Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 |
Top |
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: With Seattle being around a field goal favorite at home in this NFC showdown, I expect Russell Wilson to outduel Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks have won twenty of their last twenty-two games in Prime-Time. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Wilson is leading an offense that is 3rd in the league by averaging 385.4 total YPG. The Seahawks defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to 22.3 PPG along with 354.7 total YPG which is -1.6 PPG and -15.6 YPG below their season averages. This Seattle defense has also been more opportunistic as of late as well as they have forced sixteen turnovers over their last six games as well triggering eight takeaways in their last two games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season under head coach Pete Carroll — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 appearances on Monday Night Football. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Minnesota does have an elite roster — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Cousins has lost eight of his last twelve starts over the last two seasons against teams with a winning record as well. And despite their string of victories, there are some warning signs for this team. The offense is averaging just 331.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -47.6 net YPG below their season mark. The Vikings are also allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG over those last three contests which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. I am not standing in the way of that evidence. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-19 |
Patriots v. Texans UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
22-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The New England offense is not operating close to peak levels right now with Tom Brady lacking reliable vertical targets. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 307.3 total YPG. Remember that New England has scored six non-offensive touchdowns this season from their defense or special teams — so while they are scoring 27.3 PPG, that number drops 23.5 PPG when only accounting for offensive touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans offense has slowed as of late as they are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 346.0 total YPG. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. Houston does play better defense at home — they are holding their visitors to just 20.2 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. The Texans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: In New England’s last 12 games in December, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. And in the Texans’ last 11 games played in December, Houston has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-19 |
Browns v. Steelers +2.5 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5) has won five of their last six games with their 16-10 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Cleveland (5-6) has won three straight games with their 41-24 win over Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is the old saying: “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” A pissed off Mike Tomlin might come in a close second. The Pittsburgh head coach was seething after the Thursday night game back on November 14th between these two teams that ended with the ugly fight on the field that resulted in the Browns’ star defensive end Myles Garrett being suspended indefinitely for using his helmet as a weapon. The rough-house did not start then — Cleveland had already knocked out the Steelers’ top two wide receivers in that game with cheat shots to the helmet. The Browns beat-up Tomlin’s team before the final events of that game. And Tomlin will have his team ready to respond. I don’t quote players or coaches often in my Reports but here is Tomlin this week: “We love being in hot-button games. We love being in hotly contested AFC North games … To be quite honest with you, we're not a group that runs from these types of games. We're the type of group that runs to these types of games. We view it as an honor to be the consistent team in these battles.” Add into this volatile mix that the Steelers are a home underdog to the Browns for the first time since 1989 and Tomlin has a treasure trove of items to motivate his team. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They also are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now they return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Tomlin has also benched the ineffective Mason Rudolph at quarterback by tapping Devlin Hodges as the starter. Hodges is a gunslinger who broke FCS passing records at Samford before wowing coaches who have loved his moxie. It is hard to bench a high draft choice for an FCS guy — but Tomlin’s move in this situation speaks to his coaching staff’s confidence in his skills. In a previous start this season in a victory against the Chargers, the Pittsburgh offensive playbook seemed closer to the one Ben Roethlisberger uses as compared to the lack of a vertical passing game that has been a problem with Rudolph. Hodges completed 15 of 20 passes in the win over the Chargers — and he has completed 27 of his 40 passes this season for a 67.5% completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt for 318 passing yards. He has thrown only one interception this season. Injuries have hurt this team on the offensive side of the ball with wide receiver Juju Shuster now declared out for this game as he recovers from his concussion and running back James Conner not doubtful with his shoulder. But the Steelers did rush for 159 yards last week — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is scoring 24.3 PPG in their six home games — and they are holding their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 290.2 total YPG. This Steelers’ defense has developed into a top unit with the continued development of rookie linebacker Devin Bush and the midseason acquisition of cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick — they rank 6th in the league by allowing just 320.6 total YPG. Pittsburgh has held its last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with just 281.6 total YPG. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season with their talent on paper not matching their mental discipline nor leadership from their rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while Cleveland’s win over the Dolphins came on the heels of their victory over the Steelers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. The Browns gained 467 yards against Miami — but they are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 games after gaining at least 350 yards and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns go back on the road where they are just 2-3 while scoring only 19.6 PPG. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. This also remains a team that is just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings of these divisional rivals. Tomlin’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC North foes. And in the Steelers’ last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss where they scored no more than 14 points, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Saints v. Falcons UNDER 50 |
Top |
26-18 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while New Orleans averaged 418 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.33 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Saints will look to run the ball more in this rematch of their 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta back on November 10th. New Orleans only ran the ball 11 times in that game with Drew Brees since commenting that the offense needs more balance this time around. Running the ball will not only burn more time off the clock but it will help the Saints defense that surrendered more than 300 yards offense in that game for the first time in five contests. New Orleans then gave up 351 yards last week to the Panthers — but the Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the New Orleans defense is that they will get cornerback Marshon Lattimore who has missed the last few games since being injured in that first encounter with the Falcons where he exited the game holding Julio Jones without a catch. He will help a defense that still ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing 321.3 total YPG. But the Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Atlanta did allow 446 yards last week to the Bucs, they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played on a Thursday — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played on Thursdays. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 |
Top |
26-15 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-9 loss in New England on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 20-3 win over Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas is feeling the heat this week with owner (and general manager!) Jerry Jones making his frustration with the coaching of Jason Garrett after the loss to the Patriots last week. Expect this team to play with a sense of urgency in this game. Many pundits have noted that the Cowboys are 0-4 this season in their four games against teams with a winning record. However, these “experts” are not observing that Dallas has actually outgained these four winning teams by +84.2 net YPG. The Cowboys outgained the Patriots last week by +39 net yards. Dallas also outgained Minnesota by +228 net yards while winning the yardage battle with Green Bay by +230 net yards. New Orleans is the only one of the four winning teams that the Cowboys have faced that outgained them in yardage — and they only managed to so so by 9 yards. Put another way, if a pundit’s hot take this week had been that Dallas is averaging 396 total YPG against teams with a winning record while holding these winning teams to just 311.8 total YPG, then taking the Cowboys would start to look pretty, pretty, pretty good (to quote Larry David). Garrett’s in-play decision-making is probably not helping matters. Dallas also has the worst Special Teams unit as measured by Football Outsiders (for what that is worth). But they are hosting a Bills team that FO ranks only at 26th in Special Teams this season. Frankly, I suspect Dallas’ 0-4 record versus teams with a winning record speaks largely to some bad luck that is due for regression. The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road — and now they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net YPG while outgaining these opponents by +128.6 net YPG. Dallas’ offense has been tough to stop at home where they are scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 475.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November. And it is not as if these Bills are battle-tested. Buffalo has only faced one team with a winning record — and they lost to the Patriots at home by a 16-10 score. So the Bills are scoring only 21.0 PPG while averaging 352.7 total YPG — ranking 21st and 18th in the NFL — despite playing ten of eleven teams that do not have winning records. This lack of quality of competition puts the development of quarterback Josh Allen in his second season into a bleaker perspective. Buffalo did outgain the Broncos on the ground last week by 145 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Bills win last week came on the heels of their 37-20 win in Miami the previous week as a touchdown favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two straight games where they also covered the point spread as the favorite. This is a challenging situation for this team to be plashing their third game in eighteen days on the road on a short week of rest and preparation. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday. And in their last 13 games played with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: Having watched Dak Prescott a bunch this season, I have been impressed — he passes my “eyeball test” when it comes to whether Dallas should sign him to a long-term deal. The Cowboys are more desperate and have the better quarterback — look for them to secure a decisive win at home. 25* NFL Thursday Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-19 |
Ravens v. Rams +4 |
Top |
45-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a handicapper play tonight — with the public and the so-called “sharps” on the side of the Ravens, this appears to be a situation where taking the contrarian route will prove to be fruitful. Los Angeles has been playing better football as of late. They have outscored their last three opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining these foes by +39.3 net YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The conventional wisdom on the Rams has been their play-action offense has been slowed down since the tail end of last season when defenses started playing 6-1 fronts. But head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. A commitment to running the football has many non-tangible advantages (that continue to elude the football analytics community). Run-blocking is an easier skill to accomplish — so more running helps to put a struggling offensive line in a better position to succeed. With two second-year players entering the starting lineup this season, the play of the offensive line has been an issue. More running of the football also decreased the pressure and expectations on quarterback Jared Goff. During their three-game losing streak earlier in the season, Goff attempted a combined 117 passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle — and that was simply asking too much of this quarterback. Running the football also burns time off the clock which keeps the team’s defense rested. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Goff will benefit from the return of wide receiver Robert Woods who missed the last few games due to personal issues. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has also been upgraded to probable after getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Moving forward, the Rams have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after having -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Baltimore has looked invincible as of late with wins over Seattle and New England followed up by 36 and 34 point blowout victories over their last two games. The Ravens have covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Baltimore had a 28-10 halftime lead over Cincinnati two weeks ago before taking a 14-0 halftime lead over the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after having double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. The Ravens dominated Houston last week by generating 25 first downs while holding the ball for 36:19 minutes and totaling 491 yards of offense. But Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. The Ravens also held the Texans to just 110 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks as they are allowing 238.8 passing YPG which is 17th in the NFL. And while Baltimore has only allowed 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points.
FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have not looked as formidable this season as they did last year in making their Super Bowl run, they still are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. And they have plenty of big-game experience. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial-up a scheme that slows down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Packers v. 49ers -2.5 |
Top |
8-37 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites. Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: It is foolish to finish handicapping many of these NFL games without first getting the final M*A*S*H* unit reports for both teams. Philadelphia was tempting to me this afternoon — but they simply lacked the reliable healthy targets on offense to make that a worthwhile play even with the avalanche of public money going on the Seahawks. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers will look to run the ball more tonight after they attempted only 19 rushes for 34 yards last week. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they enjoy a situational advantage by playing at home for their third straight week. The Niners are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +14.4 net PPG due to their stifling defense that limits their guests to just 17.8 PPG along with only 250.2 total YPG. Green Bay is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye week. This team traveled just yesterday to the west coast from Milwaukee with head coach Matt Nagy not trusting his players to not party all night as they did in their trip to Los Angeles where they preceded to lay an egg against the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if this team struggles with jet lag. More importantly, one of the reasons we took the Chargers in that game three weeks ago was that the underlying members are not great for this team cruising with just two losses. Five of their wins are by one scoring possession — and the Packers are actually being outgained this season by -18.7 net YPG which usually translates into a 4-6 record after ten games. And while Green Bay is 3-1 on the road, they are being outgained by a whopping 399 to 276.5 yardage margin in those four games. Furthermore, the Packers are being outgained by 78.0 net YPG over their last three contests. Somehow this team continues to win despite leading the league with 2 false starts on offense.
FINAL TAKE: The challenging travel arrangements for the Packers compounds the fact that this is the team’s fourth road game in their last five games. That is not a good sign for a team that faces an opponent that will look to out-muscle them in the trenches. Green Bay is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Giants +7 v. Bears |
Top |
14-19 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). THE SITUATION: New York (2-8) has lost six straight games after their 34-27 upset loss to the Jets two weeks ago back on November 10th as a 3-point favorite. Chicago (4-6) us reeling as well with five losses in their last six games after their 17-7 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are a risky favorite laying close to a touchdown against any NFL opponent right now because of the utter collapse in the confidence of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The third-year pro completed 24 of 43 passes last week for 190 yards while leading his offense to just 267 total yards. Chicago is 28th in the NFL by averaging 16.9 PPG — and they are 30th in the legacy by averaging only 262.7 total YPG. Things do not get better at home where they are scoring only 16.0 PPG while averaging winning just 277.8 total YPG. It has become clear that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in Trubisky as he has taken plays out of the playbook — yet the stubborn offensive “genius” is unwilling to adapt the play-calling to Trubisky’s skill set because (and I am paraphrasing) he was not hired by the franchise to deviate from his basic offensive principles. We all can be geniuses if Patrick Mahomes is the one executing our chicken scratches in the sand. With defenses daring the Trubisky to throw the ball down field as they stack the box, the Bears are scoring a mere 13.7 PPG while averaging 219.0 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago rushed for only 74 yards last week — and they have not topped 81 rushing yards in each of their last three games. That is a bad sign for this team moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to top 99 rushing yards in their last two games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not averaging more than 225 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been helping the offense out as of late with the Bears winning the turnover battle in two straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing six games in a row. This team should benefit from their bye week — and head coach Pat Shurmur certainly used the time to vigorously prepare for this game with him being on the hot seat for next season. Expect running back Saquon Barkley to also benefit from the extra week off after he was embarrassed with just one rushing yard against the Jets in 13 carries. The Giants managed only 23 rushing yards overall in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 road games after only rushing for up to 75 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been playing better as of late Since Week Eight, Jones has completed 65.6% of his passes while averaging 280.0 passing YPG with 9 TD passes and only one interception. He has a nice Passer Rating of 100.6 over that span. He will not have tight end Evan Engram for this game as he still deals with his injured foot but wide receiver Sterling Shepard is set to return to the field after clearing the concussion protocol. The Giants have been a good road team relative to the point spread as of late — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And while the Giants have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants just 27th in the league in total defense — but facing Trubisky will help them this afternoon. Chicago cannot even bank on piling up field goals with kicker Eddie Pineiro having missed three straight field goals along with four of his last seven attempts. New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bears — expect a close game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-19 |
Colts v. Texans UNDER 46 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played been playing defense as of late. They are 11th in the NFL by allowing 325.6 total YPG but over their last three games that mark has lowered to just 270.0 total YPG — and they have held their last there opponents to only 18.3 PPG. But the Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Indianapolis has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans managed only 232 yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Houston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. The Texans are scoring just 20.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 343.3 total YPG with both marks far below their 24.5 PPG and 380.2 total YPG season averages. Now Houston returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Texans have been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. Houston has allowed 408.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents, Houston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 victory over Houston back on October 20th. But despite that game finished above the 46.5 point Total, these team two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-19 |
Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53 |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But Los Angeles has also averaged only 329.3 total YPG over their last three games which is over 25 YPG below their season average. The Chargers’ star left tackle, Russell Okung has been downgraded to doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. That is not a good turn of events for a team that is just 21st in the NFL by averaging 20.7 PPG. Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. The Chargers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Kansas City had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Chargers’ game plan will surely be to run the football against the Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 148.1 rushing YPG. LA running the football will burn time off the clock while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City allowed the Titans to rush for 225 yards last week — and they have then played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played nine straight games where no more than 50 combined points have been scored. The Chiefs have played three of their last six games where no more than 49 combined points were scored. With this game being played in altitude of 7200 square feet, the Chargers will be looking to slow this game down to a crawl to tire out the Kansas City defense. They may not be able to stop down the Mahomes — but fewer possessions for the Chiefs offense should help this game finish below the number. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Bears v. Rams UNDER 40 |
Top |
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has clearly lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. Chicago was outgained by 309 net yards in their previous game against Philadelphia — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards in two straight contests. The Bears have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears are still playing good defense this season — they rank 4th in the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG and they have held their last three opponents to just 320.3 total YPG. Los Angeles managed only 306 yards last week in their loss at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards in that loss with him struggling behind an injured offensive line. The Rams are also missing wide receiver Brandin Cooks which allows opposing defenses to double cover Cooper Krupp who did not have a reception last season. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Chicago’s 15-6 upset victory over the Rams last December 9th. That was the game where Bears’ defensive coordinator installed a 6-1 defensive front with six defenders on the line stymying the Rams play-action pass attack. The Sean McVay offense has not been quite the same since that contest in this copycat league. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
13-33 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in London with their 26-3 loss to Houston as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis (5-4) has lost two straight games with their 16-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The team does get Jacoby Brissett back under center after he missed the last two games. But he will be without his best weapon in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out for this game — and his absence has had a significant impact on the ability of this offense to move down the field. The Colts defense has been keeping this team competitive — they have held their last five opponents to just 18.2 PPG with that number including an interception returned for a touchdown which was not the fault of the defense. Indianapolis is 10th in the NFL by allowing just 327.6 total YPG — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average just 260.3 total YPG. The Colts stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 15 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 4 straight games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Jaguars have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss as the favorite in their last contest. The team gets back Nick Foles at quarterback in this game — but it is not as if Gardner Minshew was playing bad for this team since Week One. He threw for 309 yards last week while leading an offense that generated 309 yards against the Texans — but the Jags have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 14 points in their last game. Foles threw only 11 passes in Week One before he suffered his injury. Now this team goes back not he road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. This team will still rely on running back Leonard Fournette and their strong defense that has held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 304.7 total YPG. Moving forward, the Jaguars have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after last year’s 6-0 win by Jacksonville back on December 21st. While I expect more scoring than that, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Indy. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-19 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread win — and with Pittsburgh having covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Steelers have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after playing a game against an NFC opponent. This is a team that became a defense-first run team after the season-ending injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steel Curtain defense had been playing better after a slow start — but this unit has gone to another level with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is allowing only 16.7 PPG along with just 288.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Steelers are scoring only 23.3 PPG while averaging a mere 313.3 total YPG over those last three games. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 28th in the NFL by averaging 288.8 total YPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, this team goes back on the road where their offense struggles even more as they are scoring just 15.3 PPG while averaging 267.7 total YPG in their three games away from home. Surprisingly, this will be Mason Rudolph’s just second start on the road in his career after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards in Week Three this season in their loss in San Francisco. The Steelers have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Pittsburgh has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland has played 22 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Browns ranks just 26th in the league by scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they are scoring just 17.0 PPG over their last three games. The defense has played better as of late as they are allowing only 321.3 total YPG over those last three games which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. Cleveland stays at home where the are scoring just 18.2 PPG. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Cleveland has also played 31 of their last 43 home games Under the Total when favored by up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if plenty of scoring drives end up in field goals. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns in just 39.3% of their Red Zone drives — and Cleveland ranks 26th in the league with a TD rate of only 46.7% of their Red Zone drives after a meager 30% conversion rate over their last three games (including a brutal stalled drive inside the 10-yard line against the Bills’ last week). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Cleveland Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-19 |
Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 45 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in seven of their last nine games. They are 5th in the NFL by averaging 395.5 total YPG — and they also rank 7th in the league by scoring 27.6 PPG. But the concern for this team is their defense as they have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine contests this season. The Seahawks rank 29th in the NFL by allowing 278.1 passing YPG. Atlanta’s aging backup quarterback, Matt Schaub, tore their defense up for 460 yards two weeks ago before Jameis Winston passed for 335 yards against them last week. Seattle has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are allowing 28.0 PPG along with 423.3 total YPG. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 28.5 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. Seattle has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC West — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total in November. San Francisco has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. The 49ers have played outstanding defense this season — they rank first in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 241.0 total YPG. But the Niners lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. San Francisco returns home where they are scoring 35.3 PPG while averaging 423.3 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC West foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. Hopefully, we will start seeing more Red Zone trips end in touchdowns rather than short field goals (and then maybe our Unders will start seeing some Red Zone drives stall and settle for field goals). Sooner or later, the Regression Gods always reappear! In the meantime, let's stick to solid fundamentals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-19 |
Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48 |
Top |
28-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys preceded their victory on Monday Night Football with a 37-10 win on Sunday Night Football two weeks prior against the Eagles. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 28 points in a victory over an NFC East rival in their last game. Additionally, not only have the Cowboys played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games but they have also played 5 straight Unders after winning two straight games by double-digits. Dallas has had their offense cranking as of late — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Dallas has averaged 6.6 and 6.4 Yards-Per-Play respectively in each of their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Cowboys also rushed for 172 yards last week against the Giants — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Dallas returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. QB Kirk Cousins will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen who is out for this game with a hamstring injury. Look for the Vikings to run the football to keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. That will be easier said than done — Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 17.8 PPG and they also rank 6th in the league by giving up just 318.1 total YPG. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Minnesota did allow the Chiefs to average 7.1 YPP — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 7 points. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total. Look for this game to resemble the Cowboys prime-time game in New Orleans at the end of September which resulted in a 12-10 score. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-19 |
Lions v. Bears -1 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost four games in a row with their 22-14 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (3-4-1) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-24 loss in Oakland last week as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Taking Chicago was on my short list of sides to still consider this morning after taking into account the final injury reports — and, lo and behold, Matthew Stafford will not playing in this game with doctors ruling him out because of some broken vertebrae in his back. That makes a potentially good play into a great situation. Stafford has been quietly having an MVP level season for this Lions team that ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense. Jeff Driskel will be the quarterback under center for this team despite him not taking part in training camp as he signed with the team during the regular season. Driskel played in nine games with five starts last year for the Bengals where he completed 59.7% of his passes but averaged only 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. It is not encouraging that he was cut by Cincinnati after their second preseason game this season after completing just 13 of 27 passes for 136 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. I also assign zero credibility to the fact that he was picked up by the Lions as their management has been disorganized with many/most of their personnel decisions (not involving former Patriots players) — Detroit has rolled through at least three backup quarterbacks this season with Tom Savage, David Fales, and Josh Johnson (offhand) who have all been cut since. Perhaps Driskel is an upgrade over that list of names (perhaps) but he did not have the benefit of training camp to learn the Darrell Bevell offense. Quite simply, Plan A for this team has been Stafford at quarterback — and Plan B is to not worry about Plan B. For a fragile team about ready to form a mutiny against head coach Matt Patricia, this is not a good turn of events. As it is, Stafford was holding things together for this team that has collapsed on the defensive side of the football. The Lions are allowing 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL) while ranking second-to-last by giving up 424.1 total YPG. They have allowed 33.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 441.0 total YPG — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Their beleaguered secondary is also 31st in the NFL by surrendering 288.4 passing YPG after giving up at least 277 passing yards in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight contests. Additionally, Detroit is just 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Lions are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC North opponents. This defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back on track. Chicago managed just 164 yards of offense last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after failing to generate at least 200 total yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. And while Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering point spread expectations in three straight contests. Returning home will help this team as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And look for the Bears’ defense to help by forcing Driskel and this Lions’ offense (without their injured running back Kerryon Johnson) to force mistakes and turnovers in this one. Chicago has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but not only have they covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover war in three straight contests. This is also a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams from the NFC North — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bears after getting swept last season — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Soldier Field playing the Bears. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-19 |
Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 49 |
Top |
24-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chargers were able to get their ground game going in this game with a simplified rushing attack relying on fewer plays under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen who replaced the fired Ken Whisenhunt. Los Angeles rushed for 159 yards in that game against the Packers which helped them control the time of possession for 35:51 minutes which kept Aaron Rodgers off the field. Green Bay managed only 184 total yards in that game — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Los Angeles defense has been good once again this season as they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in total defense by giving up only 322.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 16.7 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But now LA goes back on the road where they are scoring only 19.2 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Chargers have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Under is 7-3-1. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Oakland has seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Raiders defense has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games after they surrendered 473 yards last week to the Lions. But not only has Oakland played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Raiders do play stout against the run as they rank 7th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 92.5 rushing YPG. They stay at home for just their fourth true home game where they are scoring only 21.7 PPG — and they may be without their star right tackle, Trent Brown, who is questionable on this short week with a knee injury. Oakland has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against AFC West opponents — and the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing fellow AFC West foes. These two teams have also played 5 straight encounters Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-19 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
37-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite. New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under there Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are playing outstanding defense this season — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing 17.7 PPG while ranking 8th in the league by giving up just 324.9 total YPG. In their three games on the road, Dallas is holding their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 301.0 total YPG. But the Cowboys offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas is scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. The Cowboys are averaging 454.3 total YPG in their last three games — but they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 yards over their last three contests. Dallas did rush for 189 yards in their win against the Eagles — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Cowboys have played 6 of these games Under the Total. A bright spot in New York’s loss at Detroit last week was that they held the Lions to only 59 rushing yards. The Giants have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. But the Giants are scoring only 17.2 PPG at home in those games while averaging just 308.2 total YPG. New York is also scoring only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while generating a mere 281.0 total YPG in those contests. Not surprisingly given those numbers, the Giants have played 4 straight home games Under the Total. And in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th. The Total was set at 44 in that game with that result being just the second Over in the last seven meetings between these two clubs. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-37 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). THE SITUATION: New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in four straight games with all four of those victories being by at least 21 points. The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This is an elite New England defense that is tops in the NFL in allowing just 7.6 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. The formula for success in this game is likely to concentrate on stopping the Ravens running game while spying on Lamar Jackson with his ability to run the football while relying on their outstanding cornerbacks to handle the young Baltimore wide receivers in single coverage. On offense, the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when they have won at least six straight games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a bye week which includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total when given an extra day to rest and prepare. This Ravens defense should stuff the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: New England has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and this includes them playing 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November — and their likely strategy for this game will be to run the football to keep Brady off the field. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Titans v. Panthers -3 |
Top |
20-30 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-3) saw their four-game winning streak crumble last Sunday in an embarrassing 51-13 loss at San Francisco as a 4-point underdog. Tennessee (4-4) has won two straight games with their 27-23 win over Tampa Bay as a 2-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINSU THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort after this big loss. Tight end Greg Olsen addressed the team about the importance of responding with a strong effort for this game with the memory of this team going on a seven game losing streak after getting humiliated in Pittsburgh last season by a 52-21 score. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Carolina went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score as they were never competitive in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after trailing by at least 21 points at halftime of their last contest. Kyle Allen had his worst game as a starter for this team as he threw three interceptions while completing just 19 of 37 passes for 158 yards. The Niners were the first team to pick off an Allen pass this season — the former high school phenom (before a disjointed college career marred by tough internal competitions with Kyler Murray and head coaches jumping ship on him to bigger programs) is still completing 62.3% of his passes this season with 7 touchdowns and just those three interceptions. A healthy Murray under center is in a much better position to execute the schemes of offensive coordinator Norv Turner than a gimpy Cam Newton has been able to in the past. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Additionally, Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This remains a ream that has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after winning at least four of their last five games. Tennessee comes off a perfect 2-0 home stand with their win against the Buccaneers preceded by a 23-20 win over the Rams. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. This inconsistent Tennessee team is also 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. The Titans did show some cracks with their defense as they allowed 389 yards to the Bucs — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The bigger concerns for this team is on offense with a group that ranks 27th in the NFL by averaging just 299.0 total YPG. Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota under center — but this team is still scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 284.3 total YPG over that span. With defenses being able to stuff the box to stop the Titans running backs, Tennessee has not managed more than 97 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games in November. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Texans v. Jaguars OVER 46 |
Top |
26-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
36 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston won their game last week despite surrendering 378 yards of offense to the Raiders. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston’s defense is an issue as they rank 21st in the NFL by allow gin 5.9 Yards-Per-Play — and now they have lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston generated 388 yards of offense last week — and they have averaged 417 YPG over their last three games. Houston has then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. Now the Texans go on the road to London averaging a healthy 27.2 PPG along with 413.2 total YPG away from home. Jacksonville has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total. The Jaguars outgained the Jets in that game by +176 net yards — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 net yards. Jacksonville also benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after enjoying a net turnover margin of +2 or better in their last game. And while the Jags have won four of their last six games, they have then played a decisive 50 of their last 78 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Jacksonville is getting very solid play from quarterback Gardner Minshew who is completing 61.9% of his passes while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He is leading an offense that has averaged 425.7 total YPG when they are playing away from home. Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. The Jaguars are very familiar with these London road trips with this being their seventh time playing in one of these specialty neutral site games. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 15th meeting between these two teams that Houston won at home by a 13-12 score as a 7-point favorite with the Total set at 43.5. The Jaguars have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 5* NFL London Calling Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
49ers v. Cardinals +12 |
Top |
28-25 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: The final score is not indicative of how close Arizona’s game was last week as they entered the fourth quarter trailing by just a 17-9 score before the Saints pulled away by scoring two final touchdowns. The Cardinals have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 21 points. Arizona only had the ball for 22:01 minutes in that game which provides some context as to why they only generated 237 yards of offense. The Cardinals are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona needs to tighten up on defense after allowing New Orleans to gain 510 total yards of offense. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. This team had been playing better under rookie head coach Kliff Kinsbury who has shown promise with his offensive schemes by not staying rigid with the Air Raid offense that he deployed at Texas Tech while incorporating more two-tight end formations to embrace the sophistication of the NFL. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray continues to improve as well — he is completing 64.8% of his passes while throwing for 1768 passing yards in his first eight starts. Murray will not be complemented by a talented running back in Kenyon Drake who was acquired from Miami at the trade deadline to replenish an injury-depleted backfield. San Francisco may be due for a letdown playing on a short week after their dominant win on Sunday. The 49ers are just 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games on the road after win by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners rushed for 232 yards which helped them gain 388 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they are just 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season — the 13 points that the Panthers scored on Sunday was the most they have allowed in their last four games. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona won’t lack for confidence in this game after sweeping the 49ers in their two meetings last year. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against division rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-19 |
Dolphins v. Steelers -14 |
Top |
14-27 |
Loss |
-101 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS: There are two technical handicapping angles (for my eyes only) that compel me to love this situation for the Steelers. However, I am reticent to lay so many points in the NFL. But, what I like so much about these NFL primetime games is that I can invest a few hours of time to address and solve concerns I have regarding a handicapping situation. So, I went back to 2017 to look at how double-digit favorites perform. The bottom line reads that favorites laying 10 or more points are just 37-43 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. But, looking deeper, when these favorites are laying at least 14 points, these teams become a profitable 20-13 ATS including 6-3 ATS this season. Now, 20-13 ATS is not a reason to take favorite laying 14 or more points. However, that is enough for me to remove my predisposition to avoid otherwise good situations only because the point spread is so high. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and needs this victory to stay competitive in what is a still wannabe AFC North division. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also a decisive 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games in October which includes them covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in October which is likely a testament to the continued improvement this team makes under Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff. The defense is certainly playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Miami is last in the NFL by scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG — it might not take many points for the Steelers to be covering this point spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, Miami is 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I have often worried about this Steelers team in situations where they can get complacent. But with Ben Roethlisberger out the season and Mason Rudolph returning at quarterback, I think the sense of urgency should still permeate their locker room. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as the starting QB for Miami — and he has thrown five interceptions already this season. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league with 15 takeaways (all since Week Two) — and they are undefeated in their six games against Fitzy as a starter. Finally, I suspect Tomlin will not take the foot off the accelerator tonight as he looks to boost Rudolph’s confidence with a big offensive effort. Lets lay the wood. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 48 |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Green Bay surrendered 329 passing yards to the Raiders, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The improved Packers defense is 9th in the NFL by allowing just 19.9 PPG — and that number drops to just 13.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Green Bay offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will not be able to play in this game with his knee injury — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. While Moore was slid in relief last week by completing 10 of 11 passes for 76 yards, the journeyman is a big drop off in talent from what head coach Andy Reid can do with his offense with the mobile Mahomes under center. Remember, Moore was still on the street unsigned with a team when training camp started. But while Mahomes gets a vast majority of the attention with this team, what has gone under the radar is the improved play of their defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Over their last three games, the Chiefs have allowed only 18.7 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. KC returns home where they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: It has not been often that the Chiefs have played at home with the Total not in the 50s in the Mahomes era. Kansas City has played 51 of their last 80 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing 7 of their last 10 home games below the number in that range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Giants +7 v. Lions |
Top |
26-31 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three games in a row with their 27-21 upset loss at home to Arizona last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Detroit (2-3-1) has also lost three in a row with their 42-30 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a divisional rival. While the loss to the Vikings was deflated, the players on this team were then dealt what they consider to be a sucker punch by management when starting safety Quandre Diggs was traded to the Seattle (who are overjoyed in snagging him). Diggs was a captain of this team — and the Lions only received a fifth round draft pick in return — which is why many players spoke out in anger about this move. Strong organizations could handle these kind of rifts but this is not the Detroit Lions who already had a shaky relationship with second-year head coach Matt Patricia. Don’t be surprised if this team comes out very flat as a touchdown favorite after this recent series of events. The Lions had been playing well by covering the point spread in four straight games before that double-digit loss to Minnesota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The play of the defense has collapsed as of late which is not a good sign for Patricia who got this head coaching gig by being considered a defensive guru. After holding their first three opponents to 20.3 PG along with 397.4 total YPG, they have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.0 PPG while averaging 463.0 total YPG with that latter number being last in the NFL over that span. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Injuries are also beginning to impact this team. Cornerback Darius Slay is not available with a hamstring injury which challenges this defense even further — and starting running back Kerryon Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. The Lions have been outrushed by -85 and -114 yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing three in a row. The Giants need to get off to a faster start after allowing Arizona to take a 17-14 halftime lead last week. Minnesota took an 18-7 halftime lead against them in the previous week — but New York has then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 17 first half points in two straight games. This team does have running back Saquon Barkley healthy along with tight end Evan Engram — and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been solid. Jones completed 22 of 35 passes last week for 223 yards while adding 35 rushing yards as he displays mobility that Eli Manning was not able to offer this offense. The Lions do not have an elite pass rusher so Jones will benefit from the lack of pressure. The Giants have been a reliable road team as of late as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Giants need to limit turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. And while New York has allowed at least 27 points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 52 of their last 83 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. With this unstable Detroit team beginning to show the signs of fracture, expect a close game from a Giants team that is optimistic about the future with Jones under center. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars |
Top |
15-29 |
Loss |
-145 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) looks to rebound from their embarrassing 33-0 loss at home to New England on Monday Night Football as a 9.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (3-4) comes off a 27-17 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York and quarterback Sam Darnold hit rock bottom last week against the outstanding Patriots defense. Darnold was “seeing ghosts” by leading an offense that generated only 154 total yards — and the Jets committed a whopping six turnovers for an insurmountable -5 net turnover margin. But this was also the team that had just defeated Dallas the previous week by a 24-22 score. Darnold had looked like he had turned a corner in his development before last week. Over his last four games last season, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. And then in his two starts this season, Darnold had a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception before the debacle against the Patriots. I expect a bounce-back effort this afternoon. The Jets have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing on Monday Night Football. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Jets have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Jacksonville may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Jags benefited from a +4 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Jacksonville generated 460 yards of offense last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that offensive output, rookie Gardner Minshew is regressing as a quarterback after his fantastic start. Minshew completed 66.7% of his passes with a 105.6 Passer Rating while averaging 255.8 passing YPG with nine touchdown passes and one interception in his first five starts. But over his last two games, Minshew has just a 68.9 Passer Rating while averaging only 209 passing YPG while completing just 47.5% of his passes with one TD pass and an interception. Now this team returns home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars did suffocate the struggling Bengals rushing attack to just 33 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-19 |
Redskins v. Vikings UNDER 42 |
Top |
9-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory on the road versus an NFC North rival. Minnesota has also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Ever since Adam Thielen called out quarterback Kirk Cousins to stop being so cautious with his passing, the offense has taken a step to the next level as the Vikings have scored 36 PPG while averaging 480 total Yards-Per-Game over that span. But the Vikings have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. Minnesota generated 502 yards of offense against the Lions last week — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Unfortunately for Cousins on this short week, he will not have the services of Thielen who has been declared out for this game with his hamstring injury. Thielen has become Cousins' most reliable target and has already caught six touchdown passes this year — and his absence exposes the lack of the third reliable target after Stefon Diggs with this offense. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want his defense to tighten things up after allowing 433 to Detroit last week. The Vikings gave played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Minnesota ranks 6th in the NFL respectively by allowing 17.6 PPG and just 327.9 total YPG. The Vikings are the only team in the league to finish in the top-four in total defense for three straight seasons. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of the last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Washington will struggle to score points tonight as they have scored only 27 combined points over their last four games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games. The Skins have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The problems start on their offensive line where the team misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues his holdout to escape the franchise. Washington then lacks reliable receivers with tight end Jordan Reed injured once again this season and wideouts Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson not legitimate number one or number two options. The Vikings will feel confident to stuff the box to slow down the Washington rushing attack that interim head coach Bill Callahan has made clear is his priority with his offense. Quarterback Case Keenum is in the bottom-ten in most passing categories this season. The Skins are rank 12.9 PPG this season while averaging 267.6 total YPG which ranks 30th and 29th in the league. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total.
TOTAL DEFENSE: There is talent on the Washington defense who should feel pretty good about themselves after limiting the 49ers offense to just 283 total yards (albeit it in terrible weather conditions). The Skins have played 6 straight games Under the Total including their 33-7 loss to New England for Sunday Night Football back on October 6th. Expect a result similar to that finds a way to stay below the number. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-19 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
33-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Under in that Patriots game against the Giants — and with both teams scoring on a defensive touchdown along with New England blocking a punt for another 6-yard touchdown, that play was spoiled. Where was one more defensive/special teams touchdown in the second half of last night’s game?!? Defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns go a long way for results to find the Over. However, it would also be Fool’s Gold to be chasing or expecting non-offensive touchdowns to play a role in the next particular game at hand. The Patriots have scored three defensive touchdowns this season while adding another two touchdowns from special teams. For our purposes, while New England is averaging 31.7 PPG this season — that number drops to just 25.9 PPG when taking away those five non-offensive touchdowns. Surprisingly, the reigning Super Bowl champions have also surrendered three defensive touchdowns this season. That means that while they lead the NFL by a mile by allowing just 8.0 PPG — that number drops to an incredible 4.5 PPG when only accounting for scoring allowed by their outstanding defense. The Patriots are also second in the NFL by allowing only 234.7 total YPG — and they rank second in run defense (73.7 rushing YPG) and pass defense (161.0 passing YPG). Tom Brady completed 31 of 41 passes last week against the Giants for 334 yards while leading the offense to 427 yards — but New England has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards. Brady will not have Josh Gordon and Rex Burkhead as targets tonight with both players being out with injuries. The Patriots stay on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York dusted off their real playbook for Sam Darnold last week after first-year head coach Adam Gace put his real offense under wraps after his quarterback was injured in the opening game of the season. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards while leading the Jets’ offense to 382 total yards — but now Bill Belichick has had a full week to study Gace’s preferred plays. The Jets are still averaging just 205 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not averaging more than 225 total YPG over their last three games. While Darold’s return helps this offense, the Jets are struggling to run the football as they are 31st in the league by averaging just 64.0 rushing YPG. They only managed 56 rushing yards last week with Darnold back under center and they have not rushed for more than 67 yards in their last three games. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in three straight games. The Jets stay at home for this game where they are only allowing 20.7 PPG. New York gets an appearance on Monday Night Football where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Patriots 30-14 win over the Jets back on September 22nd. New England has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC East opponents — and New York has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against AFC East divisional rivals. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at the Jets’ MetLife Stadium. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 48 |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-117 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-20 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last games Over the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries on defense — and, while corner Jalen Mills appears likely to take the field again tonight, his sidekick, Ronald Darby remains questionable with his hamstring injury. Philadelphia is allowing their home hosts to score 29.7 PPG while averaging 435.0 total YPG. But the Eagles offense did generate 400 yards in defeat last week. Over their last three games, Philadelphia has scored 28.3 PPG. Now they stay on the road where they have played 24 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a small underdog of up to 3 points. The Eagles have also played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have suffered three straight upset losses which should ensure they are feisty with desperation in this contest. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after two straight upset losses. The Cowboys offense has sputtered as of late as they have scored only 18.7 PPG in their losing streak — but they are getting healthier again for this game. Left tackle Tyron Smith has been upgraded to probable with his ankle injury — and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Reggie Cobb along with guard Zack Martin have all been upgraded to probable for tonight. Dallas did generate 399 yards of offense last week in defeat — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. But they are also giving up 362.7 total YPG at home which is more than 30 YPG higher than their season average. Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 3 points. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: This is a crucial game for both teams in the NFC East title race — the loser will have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Philly has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC East foes — and Dallas has played 6 straight games Over the Total against NFC East foes. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Saints v. Bears -4 |
Top |
36-25 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) returns to the field again after getting embarrassed in London back on October 6th in their 24-21 upset loss to Oakland as a 6.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 13-6 upset win at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bears managed only 236 yards of offense, Chicago has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Chase Daniel was the starting quarterback across the pond but Mitchell Trubisky will be back under center with the additional time to rehab his bum shoulder. Trubisky has struggled this season but I think he will benefit from the time off to regain perspective about his role in the offense. That game with the Raiders flew over the 40 point total — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Bears also get one of their important offensive weapons back in Taylor Gabriel who scored a touchdown in his last game on Monday Night Football before suffering a concussion that has kept him out this month. Chicago returns home where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Chicago has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. New Orleans will be without running back Alvin Kamara who is dealing with an ankle. While Teddy Bridgewater has been solid in relief of the injured Drew Brees, the absence of Kamara leaves this Saints’ offense lacking star power on the offensive side of the football. That is not a good sign when facing this elite Bears defense that is allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 312.2 total YPG. New Orleans is scoring only 18.3 PPG on the road while averaging just 278.3 total YPG. The Saints outgained the Jaguars by +100 yards last week after winning the yardage battle against Dallas by +205 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 net yards. And while the Jaguars managed only 75 rushing yards last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints’ 5-1 record is accompanied by a mere +4.0 net YPG margin this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Vikings -2.5 v. Lions |
Top |
42-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-2) has won two straight games after their 38-20 win over Philadelphia last week as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-22 loss at Green Bay on Monday Night Football as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKING MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised if the Lions are emotionally flat in this game after they feel they were jobbed by the referees on Monday night. This is a losing franchise that has little experience with successfully picking themselves off the mat when facing adversity. That narrow loss came on the heels of their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City in their previous game before a bye week where everything was focused on the Packers. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after losing two straight games by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing their last two games where they did cover the point spread in both games. The Lions have met point spread expectations in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Detroit has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after having at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight contests. Now the Lions return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. They host a Vikings team that has owned them as of late. Minnesota swept the divisional series last season while not allowing Detroit to score more than 9 points in either contest. Matthew Stafford has lost his last three starts against the Vikings with only two touchdown passes in those three contests — and two of those games were at home at Ford Field. Minnesota has seen much better play from their quarterback since wide receiver Adam Thielen called him out publicly for his need to be more aggressive in the passing game. Kirk Cousins has responded with two straight 300-yard passing games with six touchdown passes. He has completed 78.5% of his passes in those games while averaging a healthy 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Vikings are very tough to beat when they get their offense cranking since their defense has not allowed more than 21 points all season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Minnesota has generated 447 and 490 yards over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Vikings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games when playing in a dome. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Detroit. Look for the Lions to find a way to lose another one. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 49 |
Top |
30-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos stymied the Titans by limiting them to just 204 yards of offense. Despite losing Bradley Chubb to a season-ending injury, Denver still has a loaded defense that should continue to improve under first-year head coach Vic Fangio who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the league. The Broncos are 4th in the NFL by allowing only 307.8 total YPG. Denver is also 7th in the NFL by giving up just 17.7 PPG — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG when playing at home. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Broncos last 12 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But this Denver offense is scoring just 17.7 PPG which is 26th in the NFL. They will likely look to run the football to burn time off the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field — the Chiefs have allowed their last two opponents to keep their offense off the field for at least 37 minutes. Additionally, the Under is 7-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 8 games against teams from the AFC West. Kansas City has seen their offense slowed down over the last two weeks where they have gained only 324 and 309 yards. Not being on the field has played a large role — but so too has been the ankle injury to Mahomes which has slowed down his mobility. Furthermore, defenses have taken a page from the Matt Patricia defensive playbook where the Lions found success in playing press man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs wide receivers which has increased the demand on Mahomes to deliver with pinpoint accuracy which is not his strongest suit. The injuries on offense is certainly not helping the Andy Reid offense operate at its highest efficiency. Kansas City is missing two offensive linemen in All-Pro left tackle Jeff Fisher and right tackle Andrew Wylie. And while wide receiver Tyreek Hill returned to the field last week, Mahomes will be without wide receiver Sammie Watkins who is still dealing with a hamstring. The Chiefs have suffered two straight upset losses at home after their 19-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses.
FINAL TAKE: The Kansas City defense is also banged up which has played a role in them surrendering 416.7 total YPG over their last three games. Opponents have amassed at least 180 rushing yards against the Chiefs in four straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in three straight contests. Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-19 |
Lions v. Packers UNDER 47 |
Top |
22-23 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while Detroit allowed the Chiefs to generate 438 yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the touchdowns that Kansas City scored was on a 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Patricia has had two weeks to prepare his defense for the Packers’ offense — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Patricia has also finally gotten the Lions offense to emphasize the run to make things easier on quarterback Matthew Stafford. Detroit held the ball for 33:55 minutes against the Chiefs and controlling the time of possession to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will be the formula tonight. The Lions gained 447 yards against Kansas City — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6games Under the Total after playing on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Packers offense will be limited with wide receiver Davante Adams still out with his turf toe which takes away Rodgers’ most reliable passing target. Look for the Packers to also emphasize the run to take the pressure off Rodgers and their defense that surrendered 563 total yards to the Cowboys. Dallas passed for 441 passing yards in that game — but Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 500 or more yards in their last game. There is no question this Green Bay defense has improved with the additions of the Smith brothers in Za’Darius and Preston who were signed as free agents in the offseason. The Packers are 8th in the NFL this season by allowing only 18.6 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that have re-defined their identities to be run-oriented defensive teams. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Steelers +7 v. Chargers |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers are overvalued right now with bettors remembering their nice playoff run last season. Injuries have devastated this team. The defense is playing without their best player in safety Derwin James. The offensive line is down two starters with left tackle Russell Okung on the PUP list with his heart issue and now center Mike Pouncey being played on Injured Reserve this week with a neck injury. Los Angeles was outgained by -104 net yards last week to a winless Broncos team. They do have running back Melvin Gordon back — but Austin Ekeler was doing quite fine (or better?) as they lead running back in his absence. Quarterback Philip Rivers may be showing the signs of his age — the Charters offense only generated 246 yards last week. The Chargers have then ailed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not have much of an advantage playing in a smaller soccer stadium in front of a fan base that is more enamored with the Rams. The Chargers are 1-2 at home this season where they are being outscored by -2.7 PPG and outgained by -18.3 net YPG. Los Angeles is 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh will be relying on Devlin Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph not yet having cleared the concussion protocol. I first learned about Hodges when handicapping preseason football which requires getting a good grasp on every backup QB. Hodges broke the all-time passing yards record in the FCS last year playing for Samford. He has impressed NFL scouts with his moxie and ability to operate practice squad offenses. The Steelers were so impressed with him from raining camp that they felt comfortable trading away Josh Dobbs despite the possibility that they would need their third-string QB. And Hodges was confident and effective in relief last week as he completed 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards while adding another 20 yards on the ground in leading the offense to a scoring drive and getting his team into overtime. I suspect the Steelers’ coaching staff do not feel they will miss a beat with him under center when compared to Rudolph. And this Pittsburgh franchise still thinks they can make the playoffs with them just two games behind the Ravens. Remember, Indianapolis made the playoffs last year despite a 1-4 start. Pittsburgh has one of the most underrated defenses in the league right now who have forced 12 turnovers since Week Two. The Steelers defense has also given up no more than 139 passing yards in two straight weeks. This organization was very high on what their defense would do this season after they drafted Devin Bush in the first round which provided them speed at the linebacker position that they have lacked since the injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Steelers are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October — and they are a decisive 49-24-2 ATS in their last 75 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: Bet against this Steelers franchise as a road underdog at your own peril. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 63 of their last 104 road games when getting the points — and this includes them covering the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when getting up to 7 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
49ers v. Rams -3 |
Top |
20-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Los Angeles (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 30-29 loss at Seattle as a 1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago back on October 3rd. San Francisco (4-0) remained one of two undefeated teams this season with their 31-3 win over Cleveland as a 5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should benefit from the extra time to prepare for this game. Excluding last year’s Super Bowl, head coach Sean McVay has won ten straight games when coaching with extra days to prepare with his offense scoring 37 PPG — and the Rams are 8-1-1 ATS in those ten games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Los Angeles will be without running back Todd Gurley for this game but they have talent behind in Malcolm Brown who starred at Texas along with their rookie Darrell Henderson who was a juggernaut at Memphis. The Rams managed to rush for only 82 yards against the Seahawks — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. Now they return home where QB Jared Goff usually plays much better than on the road. Los Angeles is scoring 33.5 PPG at home while averaging 449.0 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has to tighten things up on defense after allowing 429 yards in their last game. 262 of those yards were in the air — but the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Niners have been anointed to the Super Bowl by many after their dominant performance in primetime on Monday. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 446 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. This team was already playing with their left tackle Joe Staley — but their vaunted ground game has taken two more big hits for this game with both right tackle Mike McGlinchey and blocking fullback Kyle Juszczyk both out for this game with knee injuries. This is a team that has benefited from an easy early schedule against four teams that have combined for a 4-15 record after the Buccaneers loss this morning. The Niners are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC West — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC West foes. The Rams have a significant experience edge when it comes to playing in high profile games as of late. They should pull away for a comfortable win. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Giants v. Patriots UNDER 43 |
Top |
14-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots had plead 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, New England has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England have one of their best defenses in the Bill Belichick era as they are allowing a mere 6.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 238.4 total YPG. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Brady was still able to complete 28 of 42 passes for 348 yards last week against the Skins en route to 442 total yards of offense — but New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. New York managed only 211 total yards last week with just 147 net yards in the passing game. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. As it is, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 passing yards. New York also allowed 211 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: With the Giants riddled with injuries, expect a similar score as their 28-10 loss last week to the Vikings. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing the Patriots in Foxboro. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 |
Top |
3-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan may get the headlines with the Niners 3-0 start — but it is the play of the defense that has led the way for this team. San Fransisco is third in the NFL by holding teams to just 283.3 total YPG — and they are allowing only 18.0 PPG. The 49ers defense has been helped by Shanahan calling running plays in 57% of their plays from scrimmage which burns clocks and keeps that defense fresh and off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 36:17 minutes against the Steelers which helped them limit the Pittsburgh offense to just 239 total yards of offense. The Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have outgained their last two opponents by +197 and +256 net yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net yards in two straight games. San Francisco went into halftime of that game trailing by a 6-3 score — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Jimmy Garappolo did pass for 277 yards in that contest — but the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco stays at home for this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an AFC North rival. The Browns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. That game flew over the 47-point Total — and Cleveland has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Browns have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Cleveland committed to running the football to win on the road against the Ravens — they generated 193 rushing yards en route to their 528 total yards of offense. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Browns are scoring just 22.2 PPG this season even after putting up 40 points last week. Expect a lower scoring game tonight with both teams deploying run-first offensive game plans. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Colts v. Chiefs OVER 55.5 |
Top |
19-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes had thrown at least two touchdown passes in fourteen straight games before getting shutout from touchdown passes last week against the Matt Patricia-coached Lions defense. Yet the Chiefs still put up 34 points while generating 438 yards of offense. Kansas City has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. This Kansas City team under head coach Andy Reid has scored at least 25 points in a remarkable twenty-five straight games. They return home for just the second time this season where they have averaged 32 PPG with Mahomes as their quarterback. The problem for this Chiefs team remains their defense. Kansas City is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. Detroit outgained KC last week with 447 total yards of offense — and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Over is 7-3-1 for Kansas City. Indianapolis will be challenged to slow down Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs’ passing attack with defensive backs Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers out with injuries. The Colts are allowing 25.5 PPG this season. But Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. Indianapolis has played 31 of their last 41 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, the Colts have played 36 of their last 53 games in the month of October Over the Total — and this includes them playing six straight Overs on the road in October.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing on a grass field (as opposed to the field turf at Lucas Oil Field). The Chiefs will be hard to stop on offense in this game — don’t be surprised if they approach the 40 point threshold against the banged-up Colts defense. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 50 |
Top |
29-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Los Angeles defense could not stop Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense — they surrendered 464 yards in that game. This team had entered the Week Four having allowed the second-fewest points in the league to the Patriots — and they are still only allowing 330.2 total YPG even after what the Bucs did to them. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Look for head coach Sean McVay to commit to getting running back Todd Gurley involved in this game early. McVay claimed he wanted Gurley to get around 25 touches last week against the Buccaneers — but falling behind early in that game lulled the LA offense into relying on their passing attack. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams only ran the ball 11 times all game for a mere 28 yards. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they attempted at least 50 passes in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Getting Gurley involved earlier in the game will also help Goff sell the play-action pass — he has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. More running will also help Goff in the passing game where he is not nearly as effective as he is when playing at home. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle rebounded from their upset loss at home to the Saints by being on offense for 33:24 minutes of their game with the Cardinals. The Seahawks will want to continue to control the clock to keep the Rams offense off the field while keeping their defense fresh. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Furthermore, Seattle has averaged 6.78 and 6.18 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks 5 through 9.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams will likely look to establish their ground game tonight — and that will burn time off the moving clock. The possibility of thunderstorms may also play a big role in this contest being a battle of the respective rushing attacks. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Seattle Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-19 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals fell behind to the Bills by a 14-0 score at halftime while only managing 306 total yards of offense in that game. Cincinnati has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after trading beat last two touchdowns at halftime in their last game — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. Furthermore, this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three straight games. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with the ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. The Bengals stay on the road where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The defense has also been an issue for this team after they allowed Buffalo to generate 416 yards last week. Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 46 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after giving up at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mason Rudolph struggled in his first start for this team after the season-ending injury to Big Ben Roethlisberger. He completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards against the Niners last week. San Francisco was also able to concentrate on slowing down James Connor — the Steelers managed to rush for only 79 yards on 22 carries last week. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. With the Steelers struggling with their offensive line, head coach Mike Tomlin will need more from his defense that is better than how they have played this season. The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will certainly help. Pittsburgh surrendered 168 rushing yards along with 268 passing yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 8 straight games Under the Total after playing a non-conference opponent — and they have also played 38 of their last 56 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh Under the Total. Expect a low-scoring game between these two desperate divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-19 |
Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints |
Top |
10-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.
THE SITUATION: The Cowboys offense amped up in the second half of last season after they acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders as he offered the team the reliable weapon in the passing game that opened things up for running back Ezekiel Elliott. The elevation of Kellen Moore to offensive coordinator has now opened up the playbook to better take advantage of quarterback Dak Prescott’s talents. Prescott has passed for 920 yards in his first three games with nine touchdown passes. The deeper metrics are bullish on Prescott as well. Prescott is second in the NFL by averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt. He is completing 74.5% of his passes — and his adjusted completion rate of 81.4% is the best in the league. Dallas has scored at least 31 points in all three of their games and they are second in the NFL in Expected Points Added Per Play. Furthermore, with the weapons Prescott has at his disposal in what is now a diverse offense with added pieces like Tony Pollard, Reggie Cobb and the (thankful) return of tight end Jason Witten from the television booth, the Cowboys lead the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down Success Rates. Needless to say, Jerry Jones team is at its best when their offense is humming. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, the Cowboys have generated at least 474 yards of offense in all three of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight games. They should build off the momentum of their easy win over the Dolphins as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense has also been quite good for this team as they are allowing only 14.6 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has registered 20 hits on the quarterback this season which should start producing more than the five sacks they have tallied this year. Additionally, Dallas has not allowed more than a touchdown in the first half all season — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first half of two straight games. New Orleans may be due for a letdown after their dominant win on the road in Seattle as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. Teddy Bridgewater may have won thirteen of his last nineteen games as a starting quarterback but I think he limits how this Saints offense can operate. He did not attempt a pass of more than 20 yards last week. And with him playing in seven of the team’s twelve quarters this season, New Orleans is just 21st in the league by averaging 339.7 total YPG. But perhaps the more surprising aspect of this Saints team has been the disappointing play of their defense. The Football Outsiders metrics’ ranks New Orleans 28th in the league in Defensive DVOA. They upset the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by 249 net yards after they surrendered 514 total yards with 450 of those yards coming in the air. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL by allowing 301.7 passing YPG. The Saints have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. Furthermore, while Seattle averaged 6.76 Yards-Per-Play last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 home games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Saints benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown along with a fumble recovered for a touchdown — but special teams and defensive touchdowns are difficult to rely on to overcome massive yardage deficits. This New Orleans team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Will hosting this game in the Superdome make the difference for the Saints? They have failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games at home. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-19 |
Jaguars v. Broncos -2.5 |
Top |
26-24 |
Loss |
-112 |
29 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday by a 27-16 score as a 7-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-2) comes off a 20-7 upset victory at home to Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: It is surprising that Denver has not won a game considering that they are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net YPG. The Broncos controlled the clock for 35:34 minutes last week at Lambeau Field and were only outgained by 2 yards in that 11-point loss. In their lone game at home against Chicago this season, Denver dominated the Bears in yardage by a 372 to 273 margin yet still lost by a 16-14 score. As if these results represent enough of an outlier, the Broncos are doing well in the yardage battle despite not registering a single turnover or a single sack in their first three games this season. Considering they have Von Miller and Bradley Chubb who combined for 26.5 sacks last year along with a defensive guru in first-year head coach Vic Fangio, I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods in this game for this Denver defense who is still playing well this year. The Broncos are allowing only 22.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 314.0 total YPG without the benefit of a turnover nor sack. On offense, Denver is doing a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage behind their one-two punch in their backfield of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos lead the NFL by averaging 7.61 plays per drive — and this remains a reliable formula for success. Expect Fangio to dial up a game plan to make life very difficult for the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Titans had a short week to prepare for the former Washington State quarterback last week but the Broncos defensive coaching staff has almost three full games of game tape on him now running the Jacksonville offense with ten days to dissect. Minshew is not mobile — and the Jaguars lack dynamic receivers so do not surprised if the sacks finally start coming in for this Denver defense. Jacksonville upset Tennessee despite being outgained by 38 net yards — they only gained 292 yards of offense with Minshew under center. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after a double-digit victory. And while Jacksonville had a 14-0 halftime lead in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least two touchdowns. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS. This team is getting outgained by -27.0 net YPG this year. They also are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Run defense has been an issue for this team as they are allowing 109.3 rushing YPG which is just 16th in the NFL — and opposing rushers are averaging 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry while scoring five times this year. To compound matters, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a distraction all week with his litany of excuses that he has deployed to miss practice. He still wants to be traded and his status for this game is questionable.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville was the desperate team two Thursdays ago — and they won that home game over the Titans. Now it is Denver who needs the victory — and this is a franchise with its first 0-3 start since 1999. Look for this solid Broncos team to finally earn a win by running the football combining with a dominant defensive performance. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). Best of luck for us — Frank (and check out his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month to close his Sunday card).
|
09-26-19 |
Eagles +4.5 v. Packers |
Top |
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia will be desperate tonight to not fall to 1-3 this season. They have suffered two straight upset losses — both decided by one scoring possession — after they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta the week before for Sunday Night Football by a 24-20 score where they were laying a 1-point favorite. Injuries have battered this team — they will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. Dealing with injuries is not new for head coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff as the Eagles lost 198.5 adjusted games to injury last season which was the most in the NFL. Yet this Philly roster is one of the deepest in the league — and the quality of their overall roster helped them return to the playoffs last season to avoid becoming the ninth team in the last nineteen seasons to miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl the previous season. Philadelphia will be getting wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game which will help after quarterback Carson Wentz saw seven of his passes dropped last week against the Lions. The Eagles dominated the Lions last week by outgaining them by +86 net yards. Philly has been tough with their run defense this season as they have held their three opponents to just 57 rushing YPG on only 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The Eagles have not allowed more than 86 rushing yards in any of their three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Broncos — that made up for them only outgaining the Denver by 2 yards. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. On the short week, the Eagles have a significant edge with their coaching staff preparing for this game versus the Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Defenses have been adjusting to the Packers in the second half as they have only scored 13 of their 58 points this year in the second half. Green Bay has scored 21 and 17 points in the first half of their last two contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not yet clicked with the LaFleur’s system as the Packers are scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. The Green Bay defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — but they have also had Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco as their opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow NFC foes.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won their four Thursday night games with Pederson as their head coach. The Eagles won three of those games outright as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of those games. Expect a close game with Philly having the chance to pull out this game even in Lambeau Field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-19 |
Bears v. Redskins UNDER 42 |
Top |
31-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)
|
09-22-19 |
Rams v. Browns UNDER 51 |
Top |
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-19 |
Steelers +7 v. 49ers |
Top |
20-24 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-2) remained winless this season after their 28-26 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (2-0) comes off a 41-17 blowout victory at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was beating the Seahawks before Big Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending elbow injury in that game. Now this organization is in a desperate situation with their franchise quarterback out and with them winless so far this season with a challenging trip out west on deck against an undefeated team. But the reason why we should have confidence that this football team has not thrown in the towel is that they traded valuable draft picks this week for Dolphins’ cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick who will offer the team an immediate upgrade in their secondary. The Steelers have a 10-6 straight-up record in their last sixteen games played without Roethlisberger — they are essentially a playoff team without him still. This team feels good enough about backup Mason Rudolph running the offense that they traded away their other young backup in Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 passes last week against Seattle for 112 yards with two touchdown passes. He will have the benefit of a strong offensive line as well. Look for the Steelers to rally around each other and head coach Mike Tomlin in this moment of adversity — they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after an upset loss. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 103 road games as the underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as the dog. And while Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points this season, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. San Francisco returns home after a successful two-game road trip out east with wins in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. But this team has not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is a young team that does not have much of a track record handling success — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as the favorite. Even without running back Tevin Coleman, the 49ers rushed for 259 yards last week against the Bengals defense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. Coleman will still be out this week with his ankle injury — but the bigger concern is with the fibula injury to left tackle Joe Staley that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks. San Fran also has injuries on their defensive line after allowing the Bengals to pass for 291 yards. The Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is committing too many penalties right now — they are averaging 10 penalties per game which is accounting for 80 Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers may win this game — but this should be a dog fight against a desperate but veteran Steelers team with a winning culture. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-19 |
Lions v. Eagles -4.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 24-20 upset loss in Atlanta last Sunday night as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (1-0-1) looks to build off a 13-10 upset victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should be 2-0 if not for their 4th quarter collapse in Arizona where they allowed rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to rally his team from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to eke out a tie. The Lions then upset the Chargers playing in an early 1 PM ET kickoff game despite getting outgained by a 424 to 339 yardage margin. Detroit is likely due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 43 road games after a win by 6 points or less. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The biggest issue with this team is their lack of playmakers on both sides of the football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford remains solid if not spectacular and a bit of a disappointment as a former number one pick in the league. He lacks targets in the passing game that demands a double-team. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Detroit’s defense has been built of capable playmakers but none strike fear in an offense. They are just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia will be looking to get back their winning ways after laying an egg in Atlanta. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries including their top two wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both likely out for this game and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan out for four to six weeks. But this Philly team has one of the deepest rosters in the NFL — particularly on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Wentz still has tight end Zack Ertz as well as a deep cadre of running backs. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down offense. And while they surrendered 310 passing yards last week to the Falcons, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Philly did hold the Falcons to just 58 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Eagles have held their first two opponents to just 42 rushing YPG which is third-best in the NFL. Detroit has become a run-first offense under head coach Matt Patricia with Stafford becoming more of a game-manager. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And don’t underestimate the value of the inside knowledge defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz possesses on Stafford after serving as his first head coach in his tour of duty as the Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles would likely be laying at least a touchdown if not for their injuries. While I don’t love the fact that they did not scrimmage in pads on Wednesday, the effect of that is probably overvalued. The Philadelphia depth along with their edges in coaching should lead them to a relatively easy victory. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-19 |
Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 40 |
Top |
7-20 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite. Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Head coach Mike Vrabel is likely to continue to rely on his defense that was 8th in the NFL last year by allowing only 333.4 total YPG while also ranking 3rd in the league by giving up just 18.9 PPG. The Titans limited Indianapolis to only 288 total yards last week. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game against an AFC South rival. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. And in their last 7 road games when favored by no more than 3 points, Tennessee has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games after a point spread victory, Jacksonville has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. But as the regular-season game tape begins to accrue on the rookie quarterback from Washington State, Minshew will experience growing pains. And he is a QB who could certainly use the benefit from a full week of practice given his inexperience at the professional level. He led an offense that managed only 281 yards last week. Now the Jags return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Head coach Doug Marrone will also be happy to lean on his defense that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has requested for a trade this week — but he looks likely to remain on the roster for at least this game and he should be very motivated to play in front of a nationally televised audience as he auditions for his next team.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville last season. These two teams split their two meetings last year with the Jaguars winning by a 9-6 score last September 23rd before the Titans avenged that loss on December 6th with a 30-9 victory. Expect another low scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-19 |
Browns v. Jets UNDER 46 |
Top |
23-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) also looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and with check down Charlie in Adam Gase calling the plays, don’t be surprised if the former Denver starting quarterback never throws a pass past the first down marker. Even with Sam Darnold under center last week, the Jets offense managed just 223 yards in their first regular-season under Gase who is the master of 8-yard pickup on 3rd-and-12. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. Bell has been upgraded to probable so expect the Jets to give a healthy dose to the running back as they look to control the clock and keep the Browns’ offense off the field. New York has played 14 of their last 31 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss to an AFC East rival as a home favorite. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of September. Gase’s teams in Miami also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in September — and they played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Browns have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cleveland defense did not play bad last week — they allowed only 339 total yards. But with eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. The Browns should respond with a strong defensive effort after all that — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. On offense, Mayfield may not be 100% after suffering a thumb injury in that game. Moving forward, the Under is 5-1-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams coming off upset losses last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that suffered an upset loss facing an opponent that comes off a double-digit upset loss, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of these last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).
|
09-15-19 |
Eagles v. Falcons OVER 52 |
Top |
20-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles where slugging on offense in the first half by scoring only 7 points. Perhaps Carson Wentz and company were rusty after not getting much playing time in the preseason — but they exploded in the second half by scoring 25 points en route to 436 yards of offense against an underrated Washington defense. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense also held the Skins to just 28 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 30 rushing yards. But the Philly pass defense was torched by the mighty Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team behind Matt Ryan who was 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. Philadelphia goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 13-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Atlanta has played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons scored a robust 29.6 PPG when playing at home last year.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-19 |
Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 |
Top |
28-26 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 33-3 loss at New England last Sunday night as a 5.5-point underdog. Seattle (1-0) looks to build off their 21-20 win at home over Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed on national television. The Steelers have won eight of their nine games in the Ben Roethlisberger era straight-up after enduring a loss by at least 20 points. That number does not take into account the point spread — but it does point to the resolve this team should have this afternoon under his leadership. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least 21 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. I just think they got caught by a good team with a great defense — and playing in Foxboro did not help matters as that is a place where they have always struggled in the Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have a good defense that should take the next step this season after they drafted linebacker Devin Bush out of Michigan who gives them the speed in the middle of the field that they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh allowed the Patriots to generate 465 yards last week with a 7.01 Yards-Per-Play clip — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. There is a concern that JuJu Smith-Shuster does not have the skills to take over the number one receiving job for the departed Antonio Brown. I think he will be fine — especially when Pittsburgh gets their rushing attack going. The Steelers only ran the ball 13 times last week for a meager 32 rushing yards. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to running the football behind their big offensive line — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NFC. Seattle faces a situational challenge having to fly to the east coast to play in the 1 PM ET window of games. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a good job of preparing his team for the body clock issues of these early Sunday games out east. However, the Seahawks have been poor starters under Carroll when it comes to meeting point spread expectations in the early part of the season. Seattle is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games in the month of September. They were fortunate to escape last Sunday with a victory considering that they were outgained by a 429 to 233 yardage margin. Cincinnati dominated the Time of Possession — an aspect of the game that Carroll finds very important — as they held the ball for almost 36 minutes of that game. Seattle was able to survive given a +2 net turnover margin — yet they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. It is not a good sign for the Seahawks defense that they allowed Andy Dalton to shred them apart for 418 passing yards with him averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt even without an injured A.J. Green at wide receiver. Dalton had a Passer Rating of 143.9 when targeting Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers — expect James Washington or Donte Moncrief to have a big game this afternoon depending on who Seattle elects Flowers to cover (I doubt they will have him assigned to Shuster). Seattle is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games gains teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Despite their 10-6 record last year, they were a team that did not outgain their opponents in total yardage last year as they averaged 353.3 total YPG while allowing the same number. Look for an angry Pittsburgh team to take out their frustrations against the traveling Seahawks. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-19 |
Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 51 |
Top |
20-14 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jameis Winston was not magically transformed in his first game under new head coach Bruce Arians as he completed just 20 of 36 passes for 194 yards while throwing three interceptions in that loss to the 49ers. Arians has had success with some big names quarterbacks in the past — but the growth of Peyton Manning did not demonstrate itself until his second season with Arians while Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer did not see their big bumps in play until their third with the coach. The Buccaneers generated only 295 yards of offense in that game with one of their touchdowns coming from a 15-yard interception return. But the encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. This defense had nowhere to go but up after being at the bottom of the league over the last two seasons — but this group was also hit hard by the injury bug as they lost 92 adjusted games to injury according to the analytics (which was the most in NFL history using that measurement). Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Niners put 31 points up on the board but two of those touchdowns came from two pick-sixes surrendered by Winston (which was clearly a topic of conversation with Arians this week). As it is, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total suffering an upset loss at home by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Moving forward, Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games played in Carolina Under the Total. With the Total set in the high 40s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-19 |
Broncos v. Raiders +3 |
Top |
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season. Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an energetic environment in the Coliseum in what will be the last home opener for these fans before the franchise relocates to Las Vegas. Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. This should be an improved football team in the second year under head coach Jon Gruden with groups usually making a big jump in Year Two under new systems. I also expect this group of players to rally around each other to play inspired football in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. It is hard to call his departure to New England to be a big loss since he never really practiced with the team in the preseason. Tyrell Williams was a nice pickup from the Los Angeles Chargers which upgrades the wide receiver corps from last season and tight end Darren Waller looks poised to enjoy a breakout season after a strong training camp. But I expect the gem in this offense to be rookie running back Josh Jacobs who was sensational for Alabama in what was often a reserved role under head coach Nick Saban. Look for Gruden to fully unleash Jacobs now. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September. The Broncos should improve under new head coach Vic Fangio who has finally received a chance to be a head coach. Fangio is one of the best defensive coaches in the business but it often takes a year for his players to fully embrace his complex schemes. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. These are all troubling issues for a team that failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Denver also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC West — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when not laying more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Oakland. With the Raiders motivated by the home crowd and to prove themselves with the Brown drama behind them, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-19 |
Texans v. Saints UNDER 53 |
Top |
28-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs. New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints averaged 30.4 PPG last season which is one of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s for this contest. But New Orleans closed out last season playing 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Over their last three games, the Saints scored only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 334.7 total YPG. It appeared that quarterback Drew Brees tired as the season moved on. But this is also a team that relied on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense fresh and off the field. This was a possession-based offense under head coach Sean Payton — and this will likely continue tonight with Deshaun Watson the opposing quarterback. It was not just the home stretch of the season where the Saints’ offense slowed down — they averaged only 19.6 PPG over their last seven contests. Another problem for this offense was that it became apparent that the team lacked a reliable third option after wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. The organization attempted to address that situation with the free-agent signing of tight end Jared Cook after his breakout season with the Raiders. Maybe — but Cook was the beneficiary of an offense that lacked significant threats at wide receiver (which is why Oakland signed Antonio Brown and Tyrel Williams at that position in the offseason). The conventional was once that this New Orleans offense thrived when playing on field turf — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on turf. The Saints have also played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Houston started slowly last season as they scored only 19.7 PPG in their first three games of the season. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Texans’ last 12 games in the month of September under head coach Bill O’Brien — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. Houston also scored only 19.0 PPG over their final three games last season culminating in their disappointing effort at home against the Colts in the playoffs. The offense suffered a big blow with the injury to running back Lamar Miller. Acquiring Duke Johnson was helpful but his skills are more as a receiver than as a rusher — and the recently added Carlos Hyde has failed to stick with his previous three teams in the league. The Texans will lean on their defense that was tied for 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.8 PPG. This defense will still be good despite trading away Jadeveon Clowney as this move will allow the talented Whitney Mercilus to take over his role on the defense next to J.J. Watt.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total as the dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-19 |
Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
3-33 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year. New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots won the Super Bowl on the strength of their outstanding defense that limited the powerful Rams offense to just 260 total yards. This young unit is only getting better. New England held their last three opponents to only 295.0 total YPG. The Patriots’ defense was also very tough to move the ball against when playing at home in Gillette Stadium where they limited the visitors to only 17.9 PPG along with just 321.2 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 7 or fewer points. But don’t be surprised if the Patriots are not crisp on offense. Tom Brady is adjusting to a new philosophy after the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. It has not been a smooth preseason for Brady in getting comfortable with his wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas has been injured along with rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry. Josh Gordon has been cleared by the NFL to be eligible to play once again in the league but he did not take much part of training camp. And then the team signed Antonio Brown yesterday who will not be eligible to play tonight since the league deadline for rosters this week already passed. As it is, New England uses the first few weeks of the regular season to continue to install their offense — so this will very much be a work in progress. Expect the Patriots to rely on their power running game to keep the Steelers offense off the field (and that will keep the clock moving). New England has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Under the Total. Pittsburgh had an underrated defense last season that led the NFL with 52 sacks. The Steelers limited their home hosts to just 22.5 PPG last year along with only 325.0 total YPG — and they held their last three opponents to just 311.3 total YPG. This defense will improve with the addition of rookie first-round draft pick Devin Bush who provides them the ball-hawking linebacker they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes them playing 9 straight games on the road Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 16th in Pittsburgh where the Steelers pulled off a 17-10 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-19 |
Giants +8.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
17-35 |
Loss |
-125 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys have the swagger of a team that believes they will pick right up where they left off after losing on the road to the eventual NFC representative in the Super Bowl in the Rams. But teams that treat Week One of the new season as just the carryover of the previous week of last year tend to get bit — Chicago was the latest example of this phenomenon on Thursday night when they were upset at home against a divisional rival in the Packers. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening weeks to a new season. This is a new that has some kinks to still work out with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. But not only will he have some game rust but there has not been much practice time for him to get back into synch with QB Dak Prescott and the rest of this offense. Elliott will likely get 20 to 25 touches in this game. The Cowboys host this contest but they have only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Dallas defense is a concern as well entering the new season. They entered that playoff game with the Rams having allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their passes since Week 13 with those QBs averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt along with seven touchdown passes to just one interception. They also had registered just five sacks in their previous five games before failing to sack Jared Goff even once in that loss. The Cowboys run defense then allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. Here comes Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The defense should be much improved with the additions of Jabrill Peppers (in the Odell Beckham trade) along with the drafting of Clemson’s massive defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and Georgia cover cornerback Deandre Baker in the first round of the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: New York has certainly had this opening game circled after getting swept by the Cowboys last year. The Giants played in twelve games last year decided by one scoring possession — and they lost eight of those contests for a -4 net close loss number. They should be very competitive in this contest (and don’t be shocked if they follow Green Bay’s lead and pull off the road upset against a divisional rival coming off a playoff run — but still take the points for some insurance). 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-19 |
Patriots v. Rams OVER 56 |
Top |
13-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
169 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: In theory, these are two teams that like to run the ball first to establish their passing game. Both these teams have two of the best offensive lines in the NFL. New England lacks a dynamic deep threat after they lost the services of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Los Angeles has evolved into a power run team with the addition of C.J. Anderson to complement running back Todd Gurley. Yet even if this is a low scoring game early on, I expect the final score to reach the Over. In part, because this game shapes up to be very competitive, the closeness of the game should push the scoring up. And as things get more desperate as the game gets into the 4th quarter, both teams’ passing games should take over. We certainly got burned in the AFC Championship Game with New England going into the 4th quarter with a 17-7 score before 38 combined points were scored to ruin our Under play. The Patriots scored 31 points in regulation away from the Meadowlands in less cold weather while reaching 524 total yards of offense after their overtime touchdown drive. Offensive proficiency like that from Tom Brady typically is a sign that New England should be able to keep their offense clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots have played 53 of their last 79 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 40 of their last 61 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Patriots also lit up the good Chargers defense for 41 points in their 13-point win in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in two straight contests. The extra week of preparation should help Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels scheme for the Rams defense as they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with two weeks of preparation. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Over the Total. This Super Bowl will feature two defenses that are middle of the pack — the metrics from Football Outsiders ranks New England 16th in the league in defensive DVOA while the Rams rank 19th in that metric. The Patriots allowed 24.8 PPG when playing away from home this season while Los Angeles gives up 24.0 PPG overall for the year. The Rams should dial up a great offensive game plan to take advantage of the Patriots defense that could not stop the Chiefs in the 4th quarter. Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. The Rams got sensational play from Jared Goff in the second-half of their victory over the Saints. Goff completed 25 of 40 passes for 297 yards after leading his team to their game-winning field goal in overtime. Los Angeles has then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the high-50s for this Super Bowl — but that is warranted given the ideal conditions in the dome stadium and the high level of proficiency from both these offenses. Expect a high-scoring game. 25* NFL Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it being attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play).
|
02-03-19 |
Patriots -1 v. Rams |
Top |
13-3 |
Win
|
100 |
168 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS POINTS: The Rams were one of the top two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started but I always considered them overrated. Playoff wins over a Cowboys team that finished 3-6 on the road while scoring 17.4 PPG in those contests and then the controversial way they won in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game did little to change this initial opinion. The travesty non-call on wide receiver Tommylee Lewis likely cost the Saints the game — and that call obscured another bad non-call penalty interference on Ted Ginn on the previous drive that probably sets up another New Orleans scoring drive. Admittedly, the officials missed a face mask call on Jared Goff in their game-tying drive that ended in a field goal — but the terrible officiating did more to keep the Rams in the game, all things considered. This represents the signature victory for Los Angeles this season — yet it lacks any definitive statement moving forward given the shaky circumstances from which they escaped with the win. The Rams defeated a still-improving Chargers team earlier in the season before beating Kansas City at home who proved to be a team that simply could not stop any quality offense. I had concerns over whether the Rams’ collections of free agent splurges could come together to form a cohesive unit given the history of Dan Snyder’s teams in Washington and the so-called “dream team” of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. I have never loved the collection of egos that were assembled with this team — and the two weeks of Super Bowl hype is not the best way for hired guns to mentally prepare for a game of this magnitude. And given that this franchise is facing a salary cap crunch in the offseason, there is tremendous pressure on this team to take advantage of this moment. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Patriots have a substantial advantage at quarterback given the experience of Tom Brady versus a Jared Goff playing in just his fourth playoff game. Goff was exposed late in the season when made uncomfortable against the Bears and Eagles in a game plan that Bill Belichick will have completely mastered. While Goff made some great plays in the second-half against the Saints, this is still a quarterback who did not play nearly as well on the road and who clearly missed his security blanket in wide receiver Cooper Kupp who suffered a season-ending injury midseason. The weakness of the Rams’ defense has always been their linebackers after they traded Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree in the offseason to clear cap room space. That left that group thin on the edge which has been compounded by the decline of inside linebacker Mark Barron whose past Achilles’ injury has seen his speed and athleticism dwindle to subpar levels. Los Angeles is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt from play-action passes. Brady is going to pick apart this Rams’ defense in the middle of the field with his assortment of weapons that feasts on mismatches like this. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been stubborn with his cornerback positioning by keeping Talib Aqib on the left side of the field which allowed opponents to exploit Marcus Peters. LA ranked 2nd in the NFL in pass defense on Aqib’s side of the field when he was healthy while ranking 24th in the league on Peters’ left side — and these vulnerabilities are exactly the things that Brady will have a field day exploiting. This is an opportunity for New England to redeem themselves from last year’s loss in the Super Bowl. While the final score indicated that the Eagles won by 8 points, remember that the Patriots had a 33-32 lead with under 3 minutes to go before letting that game slip away. Brady was sensational in that game against a defense better than this Rams’ unit — he completed 28 of 48 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns all without the services of the injured Julian Edelman. Brady’s offensive support is better this time around with a healthy Edelman and an improved offensive line. Brady was not sacked in 90 passing attempts in this year’s playoffs. And don’t underestimate the positive impact of rookie running back Sony Michel who has given the Patriots their most talented running back in years. Finally, I just find the playoff experience that this New England team enjoys to offer this franchise a decisive edge. This is Brady and Belichick’s ninth Super Bowl appearance in eighteen seasons. Belichick’s assistants have been with him for years as well: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been with New England for fifteen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons there; offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has been with them for seventeen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons; running backs coach Ivan Fears has been there for all nineteen seasons. From the two weeks of preparation and planning for the Super Bowl to the management of the game, the Patriots simply have a huge edge. While Sean McVay is the wunderkind of the league now, his reputation was saved by the bad non-call late in the game against the Saints that pushed to the background his bad decision to not go for the touchdown earlier in the 4th quarter when he elected to kick a tying field goal. Rams’ backers for this game mention things like the “value” they offer as a small underdog. I think those are sentiments that are rationalizing hype from the preseason. Let’s also remember that New England has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams opened as a 1.5-point favorite but were quickly bet down to a 1-point underdog to the Patriots. Since that time, New England has been bet up to 2.5 to 3-point favorites as of a week before the game. This line movement is consistent with how I initially handicapped this matchup. I did consider a contrarian angle regarding the Rams being pushed by the commentary that New Orleans was robbed by the referees but I quickly dismissed it. I don’t think the Rams need any more bulletin board material for them to get motivated to win a championship. Besides, the referee's storyline from last week will be old news by kick off for this game. The Patriots traveled to Arrowhead Stadium and outgained Kansas City by a decisive 524 to 290 margin. With the edges in coaching, quarterback, and playoff experience (after losing last year’s Super Bowl that I saw as basically a coin flip or two away from them winning), New England is the strong play. 25* NFL Super Bowl A-List Special with the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play.
|
01-20-19 |
Patriots v. Chiefs -2.5 |
Top |
37-31 |
Loss |
-135 |
46 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I would have raced to make a call on this game earlier in the week, I might have endorsed the Patriots. With the weather projections being of an Arctic Blast that would see wind chill temperatures well below zero degrees, I needed to strongly consider that Tom Brady’s experience with below-freezing weather could be overwhelming for Patrick Mahomes and the high-precision Kansas City offense to overcome. But the 48-hour projection is for highs to be in the low-30s with game-time temperatures expected to stay in the 20s. It will be difficult for the Patriots to come close to replicate the near-perfect game they played against the Chargers last Sunday. It certainly helped that Los Angeles was traveling east for the second straight week to play in an earlier 1 PM ET kickoff with that being their third straight game on the road. The Chargers only flew in the day before — so their travel management did themselves no favors to get ready for that showdown. But now the Patriots go on the road where they have not won a playoff game since 2007. New England was a perfect 9-0 at home this season where they scored 33.8 PPG — but the Patriots were just 3-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -2.4 PPG. New England only scores 21.6 PPG while allowing their home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG The DVOA defensive ranking by the analytics folks at Football Outsiders ranks the Patriots as the second worst defensive unit on the road this season. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities to play in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Mahomes was more than capable playing in temperatures in the 20s against the Colts by completing 27 of 41 passes for 278 yards while leading the offense to 433 yards (which was above their league-leading yardage average). Kansas City is now 8-1 at home with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. The Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in every game this season — but it is the play of their defense that home has them so tough to beat in Arrowhead Stadium. While KC allows 34.3 PPG on the road, that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: While the Chiefs defense plays much better when playing at home when they are bolstered by the crowd noise, Kansas City’s formula for success still requires their offense to outperform what Brady can do with the Patriots’ offense. While the cold is not ideal for Mahomes, the prospect of temperatures below 10 degrees would have been a much more difficult challenge. This year’s Patriots’ team has not been nearly as good when playing away from Foxboro. 25* NFL Sunday Night Special Feature with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-19 |
Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 57 |
Top |
37-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
45 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While an Arctic blast will not be hitting Arrowhead Stadium for this game, the temperature will still be in the 20s during this game to produce less than ideal conditions for both offenses. It is telling this is the highest over/under number for a game with the temperatures expected to be below 30 degrees since the Patriots played the Packers at Lambeau Field back on 2014 which New England lost by a 26-21 score. It would be foolish to take the Under only because that Under came through — but that comparison does underscore that the number is unseasonably high despite these weather conditions. This rematch is unlikely to approach the 83 combined points that were scored in Foxboro. The Patriots scored just under 10 points more than their season average at home in Foxboro for that game — but they see their scoring drop to just 21.6 PPG on the road. They have only scored 28 or more points once away from home this year. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road while also playing 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. New England’s lack of a vertical threat on offense after the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon will make moving the ball much more difficult this time around. They ate up a KC defense in that first meeting that allows 34.3 PPG on the road — but that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the Arrowhead home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs have also played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Kansas City has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. Don’t underestimate what Belichick will be able to do to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ defense in this rematch — and his experience coaching games in cold weather will likely make the challenge on the young quarterback even more difficult. Mahomes was tearing up the league by averaging 9.34 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first eleven weeks of the season — but defenses have caught up a bit since he has seen that number drop to 7.6 YPA in his last six starts.
FINAL TAKE: While 83 combined points were scored between these two teams in their first meeting, this rematch should seem far fewer points this time around. 25* AFC Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-19 |
Rams v. Saints -3 |
Top |
26-23 |
Loss |
-116 |
47 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans showed resiliency to pull out that game last week despite falling behind 14-0 in the first-quarter. The Saints surrendered 150 yards in the opening quarter to the reigning Super Bowl Champions before clamping down to limit the Eagles offense to only 100 more yards of offense. The officials certainly did New Orleans few favors as they were pretty whistle-happy in calling holding penalties on their offensive line — yet Drew Brees and this team could not be denied winning this game on their home field. Remember, the Saints cover the point spread if they hit a late field goal attempt. They out-gained Philly by a 420 to 250 yards margin. They also took the lead and seized control of this game with an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter that ate over 11 minutes of time off the clock while overcame 25 yards in penalties to result in a touchdown that started on their 8-yard line. Those efforts are good signs for New Orleans today as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And while the Saints have not covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Much has been said this week about the “struggling” Saints offense that has scored only 19 PPG over their last six games. Some caveats should be offered when presenting that statistic — most notably, that the offense was missing their top offensive lineman in Terron Armstead to close out the the regular season before getting him back on the field last week. Furthermore, we can throw out the meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina while remembering two of those games were on the road against two good defenses with Carolina and Dallas. New Orleans did put up 31 points at home in an important win over the Steelers during this final stretch that never seems to get mentioned. The Saints score 32.6 PPG at home this season — and the 420 yards they generated last week were higher than their 402.9 YPG season average in the Superdome. Brees completes 75.9% of his passes in the dome while averaging 9.31 Yards-Per-Attempt with an incredible 23 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers, as well, since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. Los Angeles has won and covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three in a row. That victory over the Cowboys was against a team that finished just 3-6 on the road while averaging only 17.9 PPG in those contests. The Rams have morphed into a rushing team to close out the season — they have rushed for at least 155 yards in three straight games. But while LA has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight contests. Of course, one of the reasons why head coach Sean McVay has decided to run the ball more is to hide quarterback Jared Goff who was exposed in a two-game stretch against the Bears and Eagles. Goff struggles against teams with good pass rushes — he ranks 28th in the league in Passer Rating when facing pressure and gets off the McVay script. The Saints' defense rank 5th in the NFL when playing at home in both sacks and QB Pressures. Goff has thrown for more than 220 yards only once in his last six games. Goff clearly misses wide receiver Cooper Cupp who was his security blanket. In his six career starts without Cupp, Goff sees his passing YPG drop by 22.6 yards while his Yards-Per-Attempt drops a whopping 1.3 YPA. Goff also is a much better passer at home where he averages 8.8 YPA with a 22:3 TD-to-interception ratio — but those numbers plummet to just 7.56 YPA with a middling 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio when he is playing on the road. Those are ominous numbers for this young quarterback now playing in one of the loudest football stadiums in the NFL. Goff may be required to win this game with his arm considering this Saints’ defense is outstanding against the run. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an expected higher-scoring game with the Total set in the high-50s — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And while LA has revenge on their minds from the first meeting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when attempting to avenge a same-season upset loss as a road favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are very reliable in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is their fourth straight game at home as well so they hold a big situational edge which afforded them the opportunity to coast out the close of the regular season. New Orleans will miss defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week — but he was often double-team which put the onus on his teammates to make plays. With their playoff experience and the better quarterback, look for the Saints to seize this moment and play their best game since peaking with that 48-7 win over the Eagles in mid-November. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-19 |
Eagles v. Saints -7.5 |
Top |
14-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE NEW ORLEANS MINUS THE POINTS: If I am going to play-against a team with a chip on their shoulder looking to avenge a 41-point same-season loss — with the point spread value that often creates in the betting market — I am going to very comfortable with that decision. I am. We can’t be zombies in these situations — especially because appealing betting situations often run into conflict other reliable betting situations pointing to the other side. Playoff teams looking to avenge a loss of at least 30 points in the regular season have lost nine of those fourteen showdowns. I never researched the against-the-spread numbers on those — but seeing five outright wins is certainly not an argument against the Eagles. Frankly, I just assumed the worst about how these avenging dogs generally do in these playoff situations. But that the personality of this Philly team goes the other way as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. I also am not going to haphazardly bet against any team that has pulled off four straight upset victories in the playoffs while winning five of their last six games outright when getting the points. I was on the wrong side of too many of those playoff upset victories. But each new situation is unique — and I hate the circumstances this Eagles team faces entering this game. This is Philly’s third straight game on the road — and it is their fifth game in their last six contests away from home. And let’s remember that despite all the Foles magic, this is a team that needed a missed game-ending field goal to escape Chicago with that win. They were out-gained by the Bears by 56 net yards after gaining just 300 yards in that game. Philly is going to struggle to run the football this afternoon as they have averaged just 3.23 Yards-Per-Carry since Foles took over at quarterback. They now face a stout Saints’ run defense that is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG and third best in the league using the advanced metrics by Football Outsiders. New Orleans allows opposing rushers to average just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. Making the Eagles one-dimensional was one of the keys to their blowout victory in November. Furthermore, the Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these remains NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards. And don’t underestimate the problem playing on the faster field turf in the Superdome presents to this Philly team as it will exacerbate the speed issues they have with their backup in their secondary. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on field turf. Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers that should be ignored when handicapping this game. The New Orleans starters have essentially has had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when they are playing at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of the last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints defense has also been underappreciated down the stretch of the season. Take out the meaningless Carolina game in Week 17 and New Orleans has held their last seven opponents to just 14.6 PPG while ranking 5th in the NFL with 49 sacks and 101 quarterback hits over that span. This team under Payton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of January.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles were my Best Bet to win the Super Bowl back in August — so I really appreciate what Doug Pederson has done with this franchise. Too many injuries, too many road games, too many hurdles to overcome — and now they run into a rested, tanned and ready Saints bulldozer of a team at home. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-19 |
Eagles v. Saints OVER 50.5 |
Top |
14-20 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers. The New Orleans starters have essentially had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs — and this is a team that has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when coming off a bye week. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has played 21 of their 30 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. They face a Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these three players remain NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees again. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. I do expect the Nick Foles-led offense to keep pace with the Saints scoring as the New Orleans defense gives up 25.6 PPG along with 373.4 total YPG when playing at home. Besides the calming presence Foles apparently provides his teammates in the huddle, a big strength he provides to head coach Doug Pederson and this Eagles offense is his quick decision-making and release. In this last four-game stretch, Foles is averaging just 2.2 seconds per pass attempt which is the fastest rate in all the NFL during that span. This skill is liberating the Philly offensive coaching brethren to get creative with their play-calling. The Eagles’ offensive line has responded as well — Foles is seeing a clean pocket in 70.4% of his passing plays over their last four games in a metric that is even more impressive considering that they played the ferocious Bears’ defense and three other defenses that rank in the Top 15 in sacks. Philadelphia has played 22 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last seven home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road and four of their last five games Over the Total when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t think the Saints get to 48 points again today — but they should approach their 34.1 PPG scoring average when playing at home. The Philly offense will be much better in this rematch — and I see them scoring in the 25.6 PPG range that the Saints are giving up at home. If both those projections are accurate, we get our Over with room to spare. 10* NFL Philadelphia-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-19 |
Chargers v. Patriots -3.5 |
Top |
28-41 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). THE SITUATION: New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: I like this Chargers team behind Philip Rivers — they have made us a lot of money this season. However, this is just too challenging of circumstances. It is just brutal to ask this west coast team to travel east for the second straight week to play in an early 1 PM ET contest. Los Angeles will have traveled over 10,000 miles over their three-game road trip since Week 17 of the regular season — now they have to play in cold weather with temperatures projected to be in the 20s. It is so hard for the best of teams to play close to their maximum ability with these sets of obstacles. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game on the road — and they have failed to cover there point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. And while the Chargers defense held the Ravens to just 229 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in each of their last two games. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating. Maybe Rivers is fatiguing? These are simply far from ideal conditions for a veteran quarterback who has a career 1-8 mark against the Patriots. In his last four starts against a Bill Belichick defense, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. New England has allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games. This Patriots team is very tough to beat when the defense is playing well. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight contests. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG. While we are witnesses the inevitable deterioration of Tom Brady’s skills — this remains a Patriots team was unbeaten at home this year with a +16.3 net point differential in those games. But the Patriots offense still cranks it up when playing in Foxboro as they average 32.9 PPG along with 430.6 total YPG. New England is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when favored by no more than 7 points. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Playing the physical Ravens team on both sides of the ball in two of their last three games may be yet another under- appreciated concern for this Chargers team. They now face the gauntlet of this New England team that has won eleven of their last twelve home playoff games in the AFC Divisional playoffs. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-19 |
Cowboys v. Rams OVER 48 |
Top |
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Los Angeles should the pace-setters when it comes to scoring in this game as they average a robust 37.1 PPG along with 453.2 total YPG when playing at home. The Rams have played 4 straight home games Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range. But defense has been a concern for this team who allows 28.1 PPG on their home field along with 378.7 total YPG. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball against the Rams’ defense that ranks just 23rd in the NFL by allowing 122.2 rushing YPG. LA allows opposing rushers to average 4.88 Yards-Per-Carry — so Ezekiel Elliott has a good opportunity to have his running the football. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas enters this game having won eight of their last nine games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Cowboys have also played 5 of the last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Dallas generated 380 yards of offense last week in their victory over the Seahawks — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Over their last three contests, this Cowboys offense that was jumpstarted with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper has averaged 29.0 PPG. But their vaunted defense has surrendered 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG over those last three games as well. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a competitive game — so look for Dallas to keep up with the Rams’ offense that should be rested and ready for this showdown. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-19 |
Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 |
Top |
13-31 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: My first point is my last argument — as of this writing, there is a 90% of precipitation with the high in Kansas City being the mid-30s. If there is snow, that very much helps our Under play with the number currently set in the high-50s. I recommend getting down on this play ASAP — because if flurries appear, this number will go down. That said, even if there is no snow during this game, the Under is a strong play (and it is a strong play with a lower number if it does, in fact, snow). Cold weather does not help passing games with quarterbacks and receivers playing with cold hands and less than ideal conditions — remember the Rams playing in chilly Chicago for Sunday Night Football last month. Patrick Mahomes had three of his five games where he failed to generate at least 300 passing yards in the cooler December weather. The Chiefs’ offensive numbers dipped a bit over their last three games as they scored 31.3 PPG while averaging 374.0 total YPG which was 4.0 PPG and over 50 YGP below their season averages. Mahomes may also have some jitters and rust with the extra week off before making his playoff debut — and it does not take many failed drives to make the Over with this high Total unlikely. The Kansas City defense is not great — but they were significantly better at home where they held their opponents to just 18.0 PPG/354.7 YPG as compared to the 34.3 PPG/456.3 YPG they surrendered when playing on the road. The tendency for games played at Arrowhead Stadium trend strongly to the Under as those tickets are 49-22-1 in the last 72 games played there. The Under is also 16-7-1 in KC’s last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total in the playoffs. Indianapolis has played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Colts generated 422 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been great all season — but he has thrived at home where he is completing 70.7% of his passes with that number dropping to a 64.2% mark when playing on the road. Wide receiver certainly sees his production decline when playing outside where he averages 24.8 receiving YPG — and he is slowed with an ankle injury still. Indianapolis has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing a winning record at home. The Colts formula for success will likely be to run the football to burn clock and keep Mahomes off the field — especially when playing in a hostile environment. They score only 23.9 PPG when playing away from home. Indy holds their home hosts to scoring just 20.9 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 17.0 PPG along with 324.0 total YPG. Indianapolis should be able to slow down Kansas City offensive juggernaut living life now without running back Kareem Hunt as they are 8th in the NFL by allowing 101.8 rushing YPG — and they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry.
FINAL TAKE: Defenses have caught up a bit with the explosive Chiefs offense — but the Total remains historically high for this divisional round playoff game. Indy wants a shorter game to put Luck in a position to outduel Mahomes — and that is a formula for the Under. And if there is snow, both of these offenses might slow significantly down. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-19 |
Chargers v. Ravens UNDER 42 |
Top |
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go a decisive 35-15-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Under is also 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Los Angeles defense is one of the best in the league by allowing just 20.1 PPG which is 8th in the NFL — and that number drops to 19.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. However, a problem for the Chargers has been that their offense has been sputtering as of late after suffering their worst points and yardage games for the season in each of the last two seasons. 7 of their points last week against the Broncos were from an 18-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown — and their only touchdown the previous week against the Ravens was from a short drive after recovering a fumble at the 17-yard line. Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for less than 220 yards in three of his last four starts while tossing six interceptions over his last three games. To compound matters, Los Angeles will be traveling east to play this 1 PM ET game with their body clocks thinking it is 10 AM (with me). The Chargers have played two straight games Under the Total — and they have then played 7 straight road games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. And while LA has only allowed two field goals in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. And while the Broncos gained 370 yards against them last week, the Chargers have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore gave up an uncharacteristic 426 yards last week to the Browns — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Cleveland only had 56 offensive plays in that game which was 10.6 snaps below their season average. One of the benefits of the Ravens’ commitment to running the football is burning time off the clock. Baltimore has averaged 45.1 rushes per game in the seven games that Jackson has started — and this has correlated to opposing offenses averaging 10.9 fewer offensive plays during that span. The Ravens have the best statistical defense in the NFL by allowing 292.0 total YPG and they rank second in the league by giving up only 17.9 PPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has allowed just 15.3 PPG along with only 288.3 total YPG. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when playing at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in the month of January.
FINAL TAKE: This game features two good defenses that just faced the respective offenses two weeks ago. Combine that dynamic with a Chargers team that likes to control Time of Possession facing a Baltimore team obsessed with controlling the clock — and the result is a great formula for the Under. 25* AFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-19 |
Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 42 |
Top |
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-6) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last week. Dallas (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 victory in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Seahawks 24-13 win at home in Seattle as a 2-point favorite back on September 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has become a power running team that has averaged at least 28 rushing attempts per game since Week Two. But this team’s ability to burn time off the clock does not necessarily translate into a bunch of Unders. The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. This running of the football sets up their play-action passing which they deploy in 32% of their pass attempts which is the second most in the NFL — and they are sixth in the league by averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Play from play-action. The Cowboys are vulnerable against play-action passing — they have only seen in it 21% of their opponent’s pass attempts but they are in the bottom half of the league by allowing 7.9 YPP against play-action. Play-action also sets up QB Russell Wilson to throw the deep ball — and he ranks second in the NFL by averaging 15.6 YPP when throwing at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Seattle play-action game is so dangerous because opposing defenses have to commit to slow down their rushing attack that leads the NFL by averaging 160.0 rushing YPG. The Seahawks trio of running backs of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashard Penny combine to average 4.6 YPC. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 26.0 PPG along with 398.0 total YPG over their last three games. Seattle has averaged 29.3 PPG along with 380.0 total YPG over their last three contests. They go on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in the playoffs. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Cowboys will have a rested Ezekiel Elliott who got last week off to mend and rest for this game. They managed just 51 rushing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Dallas is getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game homestand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams seem likely to be able to move the ball running the football — and that will open up their respective passing attacks. This shapes up to be a close game — and the urgency of this single-elimination playoff game should push the scoring into the high-40s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-19 |
Colts v. Texans |
Top |
21-7 |
Loss |
-125 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON MINUS THE POINT(S): This is a tough spot for Indianapolis who stay on the road for the second straight week in a must-win situation. It might be difficult for the Colts to maintain the intensity they needed to bring last Sunday night to defeat the Titans in Nashville. As it is, Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Colts rushed for 158 yards in that game as this has become a team that likes to run the ball to establish their offense. But getting their ground game going will be difficult against this Texans defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 82.7 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering three of their last four contests. Quarterback Andrew Luck is having a great comeback season but he is leading a team that is just 4-4 on the road this season while scoring 24.2 PPG and averaging 369.4 total YPG — and those numbers are -2.9 PPG and -16.8 YPG below their overall season averages. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The team is getting relatively healthy for this game with running back Lamar Miller returning to the field last week while rookie slot receiver Keke Coutee (who caught 10 passes in the first encounter with the Colts this year) looks set to finally play again after missing significant time with his hamstring. One of the reasons I give the Texans the edge in this game is they have more established star talent. This is the first season that head coach Bill O’Brien has had the services of defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for the entire season along with linebacker Whitney Mercilus healthy and playing together. I expect defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will dial up a good scheme in his third opportunity to slow down Luck on offense. Houston also has DeAndre Hopkins who might have enjoyed the best season of all the wide receivers in the NFL simply because he catches everything thrown his way. Second-year DeShaun Watson is also a dynamic player who can match Luck on the field. Home field advantage certainly plays a role in this game as the Texans are 6-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG — and they out-gain their opponents by +52.2 net YPG. Houston’s defense flexes their muscles at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 YPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 opportunities to avenge a loss when playing on their home field. While Watson lacks the playoff experience of Luck, the core of this Texans team got playoff experience after winning two straight AFC South titles before injuries derailed their campaign last year. Expect home field advantage to make the difference between these two teams. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Colts v. Titans +5.5 |
Top |
33-17 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: It certainly is tempting to take Andrew Luck with the Colts in this game as he offers a significant edge at the quarterback position over Blaine Gabbert who was named the starter this afternoon after Marcus Mariota was officially ruled out with his stinger injury. This situation is a perfect example why it is often prudent to wait on the decision to invest in certain situations. And after the news of Gabbert being the quarterback, I had to get in the trenches with research to block my natural inclination to want to bet-against this quarterback that has failed to meet his prior expectations. All the while, I have watched most of the betting world take the Colts in this game — and that has compelled me to believe that it looks awfully easy to take that side of the equation right now. Well, let’s not forget that it is this Tennessee team that has the playoff team — and it is this Titans team with the better defense that will also have the benefit of home field and an energetic crowd for this nationally-televised night game. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. They limited the Skins to just 131 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Admittedly, this Tennessee defense is dealing with some tough injuries with defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, cornerback Logan Ryan and linebacker Brian Orakpo all out for this game. With everything at stake, head coach Mike Vrabel will be preaching the “next man up” — and it helps that this team is playing at home with these subs being energized by the crowd. The Titans are 6-1 at home this year with an average winning margin of +6.1 PPG. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. This team is further motivated to avenge their ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis back on November 18th. The embarrassment of that loss should ensure this team is primed and ready for this game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging a loss where their opponent allowed at least 35 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. Going full circle back to Gabbert, the fact is that he has been a capable professional quarterback since leaving the team that drafted him in Jacksonville. Gabbert completed 11 of 16 passes in relief in that game last month with the Colts albeit in garbage time. Gabbert has won his two starts for this team this season when playing for Mariota. He has completed 18 of 27 passes over his last two appearances for 219 yards for a nice 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average while completing 67% of those passes. He has two TD passes and only one interception in those games. He is capable — but perhaps his presence on the field will ensure that Tennessee commits to pounding the football. Running back Derrick Henry is in the zone right now with 492 rushing yards in his last three games. A decision to use heavy personnel with Henry leading the way can exploit the Colts’ Tampa-2 defense which is a scheme that is vulnerable to teams that decide to run the ball since the onus becomes so important on the weak side linebacker to be the primary help in stopping the rushing attack — and that is rookie Darius Leonard who has played very well this season but it is not quite Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs at that position. Indianapolis is just 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Furthermore, the Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming off a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Luck passed for 357 yards last week while leading an offense that gained 402 yards. But Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 300 yards — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Colts have been much better at home in Lucas Oil Stadium: on the road, they are just 3-4 while being outscored by -0.4 PPG. Indianapolis had that stinker of a game last month where they were shutout on the road in Jacksonville. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after winning at least eight of their last ten games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after gaining at least 400 yards.
FINAL TAKE: I recommend holding out as long as possible to see if you can grab a +6 with the Titans — all anything at +4.5 points or higher is nice for this situation. The question is not “who will win this game” — it is whether or not Luck and company cover the point spread they are being required to lay with Mariota out against a team with a great home field edge and an even better defense that is through-the-roof motivated to avenge a loss and get back to the playoffs. The value is all on the side of the Titans given this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Chargers v. Broncos +7.5 |
Top |
23-9 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has lost three straight games with their 27-14 loss at Oakland as a 2.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (11-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their 22-10 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs unless Kansas City gets upset at home against the Raiders as near two-touchdown favorites. Head coach Anthony Lynn may be scoreboard watching and may decide to rest his key starters (like QB Philip Rivers) if things get out of hand at Arrowhead. As it is, I do not expect an easy time of things for this Chargers team that has lost their last five games at Denver. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss. There are lingering concerns with this team moving forward after they managed to generate just 198 yards of offense against the Ravens. Over their last three games, the Chargers have averaged just 21.7 PPG along with only 297.7 total YPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Some of the issues on offense has been a breakdown with their offensive line. Rivers has been sacked 20 times over their last six games after enduring just 12 sacks in their first nine contests. That is an ominous sign for Rivers when now facing Von Miller and rookie phenom Bradley Chubb on the other side of the line of scrimmage. It is December as well — and the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the last month of the regular season. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss to an AFC West rival. While this team has been eliminated from the playoffs, they should be motivated to play hard to end their season. It is likely Vance Joseph’s last game as the head coach with John Elway likely to sack him tomorrow. But Joseph is well-liked in the locker room and his players should play hard for him. Quarterback Case Keenum is also playing for his job with it being a disappointing season for after the Broncos signed him as a free agent in the offseason. The team will be without rookie running back Phillip Lindsey who suffered a season-ending wrist injury — but that creates space for their higher-drafted rookie Royce Freeman to show off his skills in this game. While Freeman lacks Lindsey’s pass-catching abilities, he is a tough inside runner — and the team can turn to Dovontae Booker in passing downs. Denver may be down to young players as receiving targets for Keenum but their defense should keep them competitive in this game. The Broncos have allowed their last three visitors to Denver to average just 323.7 total YPG. Their loss to the Raiders on Monday was helped by a -2 net turnover margin along with allowing a 99-yard punt return for a touchdown earlier in the first quarter that took the winds out of their sails. They did out-gain Oakland by +23 net yards in that game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has suffered three straight upset losses to ruin their season — but they have played much better at home than they have on the road. This is a team that plays up or down to their competition. They should play one of their better games of the season in this one in their last home contest facing a divisional rival that they will be very confident against after they defeated them in LA last month by a 23-22 score. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Bears v. Vikings UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
24-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). THE SITUATION: Chicago (11-4) has won three straight games with their 14-9 win at San Francisco last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. The Bears have clinched a playoff spot but have an outside chance to earn a first-round bye with a win in this game accompanied by an LA Rams loss. Minnesota (8-6-1) has won their last two games with their 27-9 win at Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite. The Vikings challenge is simple: win and they are in the playoffs as a Wildcard.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to score more than 14 points. The Bears offense is scoring only 17.7 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 316.0 total YPG over that span. Chicago also averages just 318.9 total YPG when playing on the road. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago managed to rush for just 90 yards against the 49ers — and they have played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 10.7 PPG along with only 272.0 total YPG. The Bears have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Vikings have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Now this team returns home where they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Minnesota flexes their defensive muscles back at home where they are allowing just 19.0 PPG along with only 259.1 total YPG. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Minnesota has allowed these three opponents to score only 15.7 PPG along with totaling a mere 230.0 YPG. Furthermore, the Vikings have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on November 18th where the Bears won at Soldier Field by a 25-20 score. That game finished just above the 44 point Total — but that was before Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator which cemented the team’s commitment to run the football. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Dolphins v. Bills -4 |
Top |
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-12 loss at New England last Sunday as a 13.5-point underdog. Miami (7-8) has lost two in a row with their 17-7 upset loss at home to Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing out the string with head coach Adam Gase and quarterback Ryan Tannehill likely to lose their jobs after this game. While both those individuals are competing for their next job, their lame duck statuses make this an uninspiring game for the rest of the roster and staff who are likely thinking about their offseason plans. That is not a good way for a team to end a season. As it is, Miami is just 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last nine games on the road after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. To compound matters, Miami has been a dreadful road team this season where they are 1-6 with an average losing margin of -14.0 PPG while being out-gained by -131.9 net YPG. The Dolphins are allowing their home hosts to score 31.1 PPG along with averaging 402.9 total YPG. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Buffalo where they are scoring just 15.2 PPG. Tannehill has struggled in these contests as he is 0-4 in his last four starts at Buffalo while throwing only two touchdown passes and getting sacked 16 times. Unquestionably, the cold weather will bother this Miami team — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. While they rank 30th in the NFL by averaging 294.2 total YPG, that number has dropped to just 262.7 total YPG over their last three games. The Dolphins defense also ranks 30th in the league by allowing 391.7 total YPG. Those abysmal numbers explain why Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 51 games in the last two weeks of the regular season, the Dolphins has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of these contests. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after a loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. And while that was the first point spread cover for the Bills in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. This Buffalo team sports an outstanding defense as they rank 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.7 total YPG — and that number drops to only 291.6 total YPG when playing at home. This team has plenty to play for as they want to use this game as a building block into next season behind their rookie quarterback Josh Allen. Head coach Sean McDermott is underrated — not only has he overseen the development of a strong defense but he also gets his team ready to play against divisional rivals. While Buffalo lacks offensive weapons, they are averaging 371.2 YPG in their six games against AFC East rivals which is over 80 YPG above their season average. The Bills also hold their divisional opponents to just 279.8 total YPG. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 44 of their last 80 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Defensive lineman Kyle Williams has announced that he will retire after this game — and this added emotional element for this player who has served as the foundation of this defense for years should inspire his teammates to play hard so that he goes out a winner. The Bills will also be motivated by a 21-17 loss in Miami back on December 2nd. Buffalo is moving forward and will remain motivated to have a great game — while this Dolphins team looks to have already moved on. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Jets v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
3-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). THE SITUATION: New England (10-5) enters this game coming off their 24-12 win over Buffalo last Sunday. They need a victory to clinch the second seed in the AFC playoffs which gives them a first-round bye — and a loss by the Chiefs could put them in play to get the top seed in the AFC overall. New York (4-11) is playing out the string after they lost their second straight game as well as their eighth of their last nine contests after their 44-38 loss in overtime at home to Green Bay as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. New England did generate 390 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. With the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon and the apparent decline of tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are focusing more on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense off the field. New England held the ball for 35:38 minutes in their win over the Bills. But over their last three games, the Patriots are scoring just 22.3 PPG. They say at home where they have held their seven visitors to just 18.6 PPG along with only 331.0 total YPG. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Bill Belichick’s team is also very stingy on defense against divisional rivals. AFC East opponents are scoring only 14.4 PPG while averaging just 308.8 total YPG against the Patriots this season. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, the Patriots have played 9 of these games Under the Total. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, the Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, New York has played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jets did allow the Packers to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play against them — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. New York now goes back on the road to close out their season where they are scoring just 20.3 PPG while averaging a mere 258.9 total YPG. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has had his moments but he lacks weapons at the skill position — and that will make things very easy for a Belichick defense. The Jets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. New York has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the November 25th meeting between these two teams that the Patriots won by a 27-13 score. The Jets have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total. With New England wanting the victory before keeping Tom Brady and company healthy for the playoffs, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-24-18 |
Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). THE SITUATION: Oakland (3-11) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-16 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog. Denver (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 17-16 upset loss at home against Cleveland two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is struggling to move the ball down the stretch of the season as they are scoring just 18.0 PPG while averaging only 301.7 Yards-Per-Game. But their defense is keeping them in games as they are holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG along with only 336.3 total YPG. The Broncos run defense has been quite good as of late as they are holding their opponents to just 79.6 rushing YPG over their last eight games along with only 3.84 Yards-Per-Carry. Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The Broncos have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Denver has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. The Broncos have also seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against AFC opponents with the Under being 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against fellow AFC West foes. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Raiders did hold the Bengals to just 123 passing yards in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Oakland returns home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Raiders struggle against good pass rushes as the 48 sacks they have given up is the third most in the league. Denver is 7th in the NFL by producing sacks in 7.8% of their opponents passing plays. Oakland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games played in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Broncos’ 20-19 victory over the Raiders back on September 16th. Oakland has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their minds. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams who both have offenses that can struggle to score double-digits on any given game. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-18 |
Chiefs v. Seahawks OVER 54 |
Top |
31-38 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-3) looks to bounce-back from their 29-28 upset loss to the Los Angeles Chargers back on December 13th. Seattle (8-6) looks to rebound from their 26-23 upset loss in overtime at San Francisco last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 4 straight games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Kansas City has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less to a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have been basically unstoppable on offense when playing on the road. Kansas City averages 39.3 PPG while generating 459.6 total YPG when playing away from home. Perhaps the Chiefs are this prolific on offense because they have difficulty slowing down the offenses of the home teams. They are allowing their home hosts to score 34.1 PPG while averaging 455.1 total YPG. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been able to raise his level of play away from Arrowhead Stadium as his 28:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio of 28:6 along with a 9.47 Yards-Per-Attempt passing mark on the road are actually better than his 17:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 8.17 YPA at home this season. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Overs in the month of December. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December. They rushed for 168 yards in their loss to the 49ers — and they should find success with their rushing attack against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in stopping the run. The Seahawks’ reliance on their ground game might be tempting some bettors to lead to them burning the clock which helps produce lower scoring games — but Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Seahawks average 27.2 PPG at home and they are scoring 29.0 PPG over their last three games. But Seattle allows their visitors to average 372.7 total YPH when playing at home. The Seahawks run defense has been faltering as of late with their last six opponents averaging 5.21 Yards-Per-Carry. Seattle has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: The Total of this game is the highest number for Week Sixteen. But with this likely to be a close game with both teams likely to score at least in the high-20s, look for this final score to reach the Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-18 |
Texans +2.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
30-32 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-4) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 29-22 win in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Philadelphia (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 30-23 win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a +13.5-point underdog last Sunday night.
THE SITUATION: The Eagles found life last week behind Nick Foles as they pulled the shocking upset over the Rams. However, this remains a team ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football and I expect a big emotional letdown for the defending Super Bowl Champions. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles were out-gained by 26 net yards to Los Angeles as they gave up 407 yards in that game but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Houston (10-4) should build off their continued momentum after their bad 0-3 start as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team has outscored their last three opponents by +6.6 Points-Per-Game. Houston is 5-2 on the road this season — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles play an inspired game last week behind their Super Bowl MVP — but that effort may have said more about the problems with the Rams than it did about the possibility of another Philly resurgence behind Nick Foles. Look for Houston to pull the upset in this game — but take the points for some insurance. 25* NFL Non-Conference Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 44 |
Top |
22-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games with their 20-12 win over Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-3) teaks the field again after their triumphant 29-28 upset win at Kansas City last Thursday where they were a +3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played nine of their last eleven games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Los Angeles has played five of their last seven games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers did gain 407 yards against the Chiefs defense — but the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Despite their numbers last week, Los Angeles is averaging only 355.3 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests which is almost 47 YPG below their season average. The Chargers return home where they are holding their opponents to only 297.3 total YPG. LA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of December. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Baltimore boasts the best statistical defense in the league that is best in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.1 PPG and only 290.2 total YPG. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL in both run and pass defense — so it is difficult to exploit a weakness. Over their last three games, Baltimore is only allowing 271.0 total YPG — and they have held four of their last five opponents to under 260 yards. But the Baltimore offense manages to score just 21.4 PPG on the road. Rookie Lamar Jackson is playing well as a dual-threat quarterback — but this will be the most challenging defense he has yet played in his young professional career. Jackson has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game so the Chargers may be able to make him one-dimensional. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and they have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the regular season.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers employ the slowest pace on offense in the NFL — and with Malcolm Gordon returning to the field, expect this team to run the ball plenty against this stout Ravens defense. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing since Jackson has taken over at quarterback. This game sets up to be an old-fashioned battle at the line of scrimmage where both coaches will look to impose their will and tire the opposing defenses out. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-18 |
Saints v. Panthers +7 |
Top |
12-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games after their 26-20 upset loss at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (11-2) enters this game coming off a 28-14 win at Tampa Bay last week as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina has had this night circled on their calendar all season as it is their first opportunity to avenge being beaten three by the Saints last year. The Panthers lost both regular-season games to New Orleans before losing in the first round of the playoffs by a 31-26 score on the road in the Superdome. Carolina should play one of their best games of the season as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Panthers remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt but they must win this game tonight. Quarterback Cam Newton is not at full strength as he is dealing with a shoulder issue that is limiting his ability to throw longer passes. Yet going deeper into the numbers, it is the not offense that has been holding this team back. Carolina is averaging only 21.3 PPG in their last three games despite averaging a robust 437.7 Yards-Per-Game over that span — that is almost 60 YPG above their season average. The 393 yards they generated last week against the Browns was the lowest offensive output in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Panthers out-gained Cleveland last week by 50 yards — in fact, they have out-gained their last four opponents despite losing all four games on the scoreboard. Carolina’s run defense is playing quite well at this point of the season. Over their last three games, they are allowing only 60 rushing YPG while holding opposing rushers to just a 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Carolina returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. New Orleans has covered the point spread in ten of their last eleven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after a win on the road against a fellow NFC South rival. Despite their continued success, the New Orleans offense has slowed down a bit as they are averaging only 23.0 PPG along with just 262.0 total YPG over their last three games. Opposing defenses are finding success by focusing on taking away Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the passing game to make Drew Brees use his other less-talented passing targets. Defenses are also finding success by going into dime coverage on third down. These defensive adjustments are taking away the Saints explosiveness. Brees has passed for at least 200 yards just once in his last three games — and only six of his passes over those last three games have resulted in more than 20 yards. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has been snake-bit during their losing streak — they are a better team than their losing record indicates. The Panthers should have a few tricks up their sleeve for this first opportunity to avenge their three losses to the Saints last season which defined their year. New Orleans may win this game — but it is difficult to defeat a divisional rival on the road by this many points that they are laying. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-18 |
Eagles v. Rams UNDER 54 |
Top |
30-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-7) looks to rebound from their 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 15-6 loss in Chicago last Sunday night as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Philly will be turning to Nick Foles at quarterback with Carson Wentz dealing with back issues and likely to be put on the shelf for the rest of this season with their playoff hopes likely dashed. Foles started the first two games of the season with the Eagles scoring only 19 combined points in those two games. Philadelphia will likely to commit to running the football considering that they have won all six of their games this season when they attempt at least 27 rushes. Running the football will also serve to protect their injury-riddled defense that surrendered 576 yards against the Cowboys. The Eagles have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. Philadelphia stayed competitive last week despite only managing to gain 256 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after being out-gained by at least 100 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams will likely look to run the football as well after struggling to move the football in the colder weather in Chicago — Todd Gurley ran the ball only 11 times last week. Los Angeles also needs to do better with their run defense after allowing the Bears to rush for 194 yards last week. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles returns home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Rams have also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: With Los Angeles big favorites of almost two touchdowns, the Total remains in the low-50s for this game. With both teams running the football, expect this to be a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-18 |
Dolphins v. Vikings -7.5 |
Top |
17-41 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-6-1) has lost two straight games after their 21-7 loss at Seattle on Monday as a 3-point underdog. Miami (7-6) enters this game still buzzing off the “miracle in Miami” where they scored on a last-second hook-and-ladder play to pull a 34-33 upset over New England as a 9.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss. Their loss on Monday was preceded by a 24-10 loss in New England the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they are 4-2 while out-gaining their opponents by +91.1 net YPG. The Vikings hold their guests to just 19.3 PPG along with only 270.2 YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on their home field. There should also be a better atmosphere on the sidelines after head coach Mike Zimmer fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski. DeFilippo was not a good personality fit with the demanding Zimmer who has a different philosophy. Stefanski is very highly regarded around the league and appears to be a better fit with Zimmer’s style. He takes over an offense for a team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games in the month of December. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset win over a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games off a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Now the Dolphins go back on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -12.3 PPG while being out-gained by -116.3 net YPG. Miami allows their home hosts to score 29.5 PPG while gaining 400.3 total YPG. Defense is a concern for this team as they have surrendered at least 377 yards in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in four straight games. They are allowing 430.3 total YPG over their last three contests. And in their last 11 games on the road, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have endured a difficult stretch of games but remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt. Look for them to take out their frustrations on an overachieving Dolphins team that is not very good when playing away from south beach. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
Browns v. Broncos -2 |
Top |
17-16 |
Loss |
-123 |
22 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-14 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (5-7-1) has won three of their last four games with their 26-20 upset win at home over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver was caught flat last week after winning three straight games and playing a 49ers team that will be missing the playoffs. But the Broncos have rebounded to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Denver had covered point spread expectations in their three previous games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after covering two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, returning home should help this team. They are playing outstanding run defense right now as they have held their last seven opponents to just a 3.58 Yards-Per-Carry mark song with only 72.7 rushing YPG. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cleveland may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset at home against the reeling Panthers. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. That game finished below the 47.5-point Total — but Cleveland has then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Browns have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Cleveland is flirting with danger having lost the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover battle in two straight games. The Browns defense surrendered 393 yards to Carolina in their victory but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 108 rushing YPG while averaging 5.06 YPC — and those are scary numbers when facing this Broncos team that is 7th in the NFL by averaging 130.2 rushing YPG. Cleveland now plays their third game in their last four contests on the road where they are 1-5 this season while surrendering 29.0 PPG along with 412.2 total YPG. The Browns are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this Browns team to struggle in the high-altitude in Denver where the Broncos typically enjoy a significant home-field advantage. Both those teams remain technically alive in the playoff race — but it is Denver that has a more realistic chance of qualifying for the playoffs if they win their remaining games. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
Texans v. Jets UNDER 44 |
Top |
29-22 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-21 upset loss to Indianapolis last week where they were a 4-point favorite. New York (4-9) enters this Saturday game coming off a 27-23 upset victory at Buffalo as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans’ offense stalled in that game as they generated only 315 yards at home against the Colts. Houston has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans did limit Indianapolis to just 50 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. Houston is 5th in the NFL by allowing only 88.2 rushing YPG — and they are holding their opponents to just a 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry average. Over their last three games, the Texans allowing only 18.0 PPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 7 points. Furthermore, the Texans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 31 games played in the month of December, Houston has played 23 of these games Under the Total including nine of their last eleven. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. Furthermore, the Jets have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They did surrender 176 rushing yards to the Bills in that win — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The New York offense is riddled with injuries with running back Isaiah Crowell going on IR with a foot injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa being declared out with an ankle. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is left without much help at the skill positions. He has only passed for 300 yards once in his ten starts and his lead running back is now third-stringer Elijah McGuire. The Jets have scored only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 288.7 total YPG. Lastly, in their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored, New York has then played 10 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. The Jets’ offense was already limited before their rash of injuries. Houston has evolved into a run-first team to protect their offensive line (it is easier on that group to run block rather than offer pass protection). With the Texans on the road, they will lean even more on the road. 25* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-18 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54 |
Top |
29-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-3) has won three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (11-2) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win in overtime against Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last two games along with having played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games in a row. Los Angeles managed only 85 yards of rushing in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chargers are hit hard with injuries at running back with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler listed as doubtful for this game with injuries which will make it difficult for either of them to play on a short week. The team will likely depend on Northwestern rookie Justin Jackson as their lead back tonight. Los Angeles will lean on their defense for this game that is holding their last three opponents to just 260.3 total YPG which has translated into only 20.3 PPG. Overall, the Chargers rank seventh in the NFL by allowing only 331.8 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing in the month of December — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Los Angeles has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. Kansas City is dealing with their own injuries on offense with running back Spencer Ware (replacing Kareem Hunt) and wide receiver Sammie Watkins both doubtful with injuries. The good news for the Chiefs is that it looks like the heart and soul of their defense in safety Eric Berry will make his debut this season after dealing with injuries all season. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Chiefs did surrender 198 rushing yards in that game to the new-look Ravens rushing attack — but they have then played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Kansas City does play much better defense when playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium. They hold their visitors to 356.5 total YPG at home which is -53.1 net YPG below their season average — and they hold their guests to only 18.7 PPG at home as compared to the 33.7 PPG they surrender when playing on the road. The Chiefs have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in all their games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Kansas City has generated at least 441 yards of offense in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. And while they have played their last three games Over the Total, the Chiefs have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Kansas City’s 38-28 victory as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week One of this season. In this rematch being played on a short week with both teams on their third-string running back from that initial game, expect a lower-scoring game this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-18 |
Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-5-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-10 loss at New England as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (7-5) has won three straight games with their 43-16 win over San Francisco as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings managed only 278 yards of offense on the road against the Patriots with Minnesota only being on offense for 26:39 minutes of that game. Head coach Mike Zimmer may fire his offensive coordinator mid-game if John DeFilippo does not have his team run the football more tonight after weeks of criticism on this front resulted in a mere 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings did run the ball 29 times two weeks ago in their 24-17 win over the Packers — Minnesota needs to embrace this mentality against the Seahawks or risk Seattle being on offense for more than 35 minutes of this game happily burning time off the clock while keeping their defense fresh. As it is, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots’ ability to control Time of Possession helped them rack of 471 yards of offense against the Vikings — but Minnesota has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings rank 6th in the NFL with a total defense that allows 327.8 total YPG. Moving forward, the Vikings have played 22 of their last 36 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. And in their last 4 games in the month of December, Minnesota has played all 4 of these games Under the Total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last four games so the Vikings have to be concerned with that they have been able to do on offense. But the Seahawks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Seattle has played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Head coach Pete Carroll has to remain focused on protecting his young defense that gave up 454 yards of offense last week to a 49ers team that generated 386 of those yards in the air. The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: In a game between two teams with playoff aspirations with head coaches with defensive backgrounds, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Rams v. Bears UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
6-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-1) has won three straight games with their 30-16 win at Detroit last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Chicago (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-27 upset loss in New York to the Giants as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears held the Giants to just 338 yards of offense but were plagued by a -2 net turnover margin which included an 8-yard interception that accounted for the seven of the points that New York scored. Chicago is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 20.1 PPG and just 317.9 rushing YPG. When playing at home in Soldier Field, the Bears see those numbers drop even further to allowing just 19.5 PPG along with only 291.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Monsters on the Midway have also played 34 of their last 50 games at home Under the Total when an underdog of no more than 3 points. The Bears will be getting Mitchell Trubisky back at quarterback but it remains questionable how effective he will be given the injured throwing shoulder that kept him out the last two weeks. Trubisky has won four straight games that he started before tonight — but let’s keep that quality of competition in mind. Those wins against the Jets, Bills, Lions, Vikings were against opponents that entered the day with a weak 17-30-1 combined record. It is telling that Trubisky had only four touchdown passes against the four opponents. Moving forward, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. It will be cold in the Windy City tonight with temperates expected to be in the high-20s. The Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. I expect this cold weather to bother quarterback Jared Goff who as a California kid growing up and in college at Cal has rarely been asked to play in this kind of weather. Goff played with the temperatures in the 20s earlier this season in Denver back on October 14th — and that was one of his worst games of the season as he completed just 14 of 28 passes for only 201 yards. He did not throw a touchdown pass in that game while throwing one interception and getting sacked five times. He will certainly be under pressure tonight from Khalil Mack and company who have accounted for 37 sacks on the quarterback this season. Look for the Rams to commit to Todd Gurley as they look to run the football to take pressure off Goff in these conditions against an elite defense. Goff is a finesse passer who cannot be expected to have the same touch in these conditions as he does when playing in warmer weather. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. The good news for this football team is the return of Aqib Talib at cornerback. His absence helps explain why this LA defense has underachieved for much of the season as he offers the team their best cover corner. His presence on the field will likely make the Bears’ one-dimensional in their offensive attack. The Rams defense has been better on the road where they allow 22.5 PPG which is more than 2 points less than their 24.8 PPG season defensive average. FINAL TAKE: Weather should play a role in this game between two teams from the NFC destined for the playoffs. Look for this game to become a defensive struggle. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
23-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-6) has won two straight games with their 28-13 win over Washington on Monday as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (7-5) has won four straight games with their triumphant 13-10 upset win over New Orleans back on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys acted like they won the Super Bowl two Thursdays ago with their upset win over the Saints on that short week. We had Dallas in that game — and the fringe benefit to that victory was that it set up this letdown situation. The Cowboys have been fortunate to reach their 7-5 record given that six of their victories have been decided by one scoring possession. They are only out-gaining their opponents by +13.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in four straight games along with five of their last seven — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. They held the Saints to just 176 yards of offense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 205 total yards of offense. Dallas is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Philadelphia enters this critical game for them with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They also have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Carson Wentz is heating up as he completed 27 of 39 passes against the Skins for 306 yards with two touchdown passes. Wentz loves facing NFC East foes against which he has a 7-1 record with a 17:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 262.4 passing YPG along with a 106.2 Passer Rating. Wentz led his offense to 436 total yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards of offense in their last game. The defense has been the biggest issue for this team simply ravaged by injuries which was made even worse this week with the news that they placed cornerback Jalen Mills on Injured Reserve. The Eagles have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.03 and 7.31 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Philly run defense remains stout as they rank 10th in the NFL by allowing 103.7 rushing YPG — and asking Dak Prescott to beat them with his arm is the preferred strategy anyways. The reigning Super Bowl Champions are tough in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: As opposed to last week when the Cowboys had the gigantic chip on their shoulder hosting the Saints on a ten-game winning streak, it is the Eagles now with something to prove in this game after Dallas won their proverbial Super Bowl to (temporarily) quell all their insecurities. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 27-20 loss at home to the Cowboys back on November 11th despite being 7.5-point favorites in that game. Not only have the Eagles covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road when playing with same-season revenge but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites laying at least a touchdown. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
28-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-2) takes the field again after their 13-10 loss at Dallas back on November 29th as a 7.5-point favorite that snapped their ten-game winning streak. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset Carolina at home last Sunday by a 24-17 score as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite laying at least a touchdown. Don’t blame the defense for that loss as they held the Cowboys to just 308 yards of offense. The New Orleans defense is underrated. Not only do the Saints lead the NFL in rushing defense by limiting their opponents to just 75.3 rushing YPG, but they are also doing a fantastic job of pressuring the quarterback. Over their last four games, New Orleans has generated 20 sacks while registering 34 hits on the quarterback. They have only allowed more than 23 points once (to the Rams in that shootout) in their last nine games — and in their last three games, they are allowing just 12.3 PPG while giving up only 290.0 total YPG. The problem for the Saints against Dallas was the offense that managed to gain a mere 176 total yards. Look for New Orleans to deploy their preferred offensive strategy when playing on the road which is to run the football to burn clock and keep the opposing quarterback off the field. This should be a very effective strategy to limit Jameis Winston’s effectiveness. Since Week Nine, the Buccaneers are allowing 134.6 rushing YPG while seeing opposing rushers average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tampa Bay allowed the Panthers to generate 161 rushing yards against them last week on the heels of the 49ers rushing for 181 yards against them two weeks ago. The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay upset Carolina last week despite only gaining 315 yards of offense against them. The Bucs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Bucs have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Under the Total — and this includes 8 of the last 10 encounters in Tampa Bay finishing below the number. The oddsmakers have installed an over/under the number in the mid-50s given the 48-40 shootout that the Bucs pulled out in an upset back on September 9th. The Saints’ defense has more to prove in this rematch than even the offense does after last week. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Colts +4.5 v. Texans |
Top |
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) looks to rebound from their humiliating 6-0 shutout loss on the road to Jacksonville last week despite being a 4-point favorite. Houston (9-3) has rattled off nine straight victories with their 29-13 win over Cleveland last week as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should be very feisty in this game after being shutout — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. If there is anything encouraging from that loss to the Jaguars, it was the continued improvement of the Colts defense that held Jacksonville to just 211 yards of offense. Over their last three games, Indianapolis has allowed only 13.3 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. Indy is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 yards of offense in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a low-scoring game where neither team scored more than 14 points. This is a challenge for this team when facing this ferocious defense that has registered 34 sacks for the season. But this strong Colts’ offensive line has allowed only 14 sacks this season — so Andrew Luck should have an opportunity to find receivers this afternoon. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are also 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games against their AFC South rivals — and this includes them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Houston. The Texans generated 384 yards of offense last week against the Browns — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense that allowed 428 yards to the Browns with rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield gaining 397 of those yards in the air. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 305 yards in their last game. This shapes up to be a higher scoring game with the Total set in the low-50s — but this is not the type of game that this team prefers. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December under head coach Bill O’Brien.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 30th by a 37-34 score despite that game being played in Indianapolis. The Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Don’t be surprised if Indy pulls the upset — but take the points for some nice insurance in what should be a close game. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-18 |
Jaguars v. Titans -5 |
Top |
9-30 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars’ defense may have been inspired to make a statement with head coach Doug Marrone’s decision to end the Blake Bortles era last week with him being benched for Cody Kessler at quarterback. Jacksonville stepped up t shutout Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense while holding them to just 265 yards of offense. But this remains a lost season for the Jaguars who need to win their final four games just to get to an 8-8 record. Sure, Jacksonville can also try to motivate themselves to play the role of the spoiler — but that seems unlikely for this group at this point particularly with them playing on a short week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Jacksonville is also 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Jags held Indy to averaging just 3.90 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The bigger problem for this team remains their offense now reliant on Kessler running the show. He passed for just 150 yards in that game leading an offense that generated a mere 211 yards. Jacksonville was out-gained by 54 net yards even in that victory. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While the Bortles narrative has received most of the attention this season, one of the biggest reasons why this team has underachieved this season has been that they have ravaged by injuries. Jacksonville has a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve at this point of the season including three of their opening day starters on the offensive line headlined by their All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while being outscored by -9.3 PPG while allowing their home hosts to score 27.0 PPG. The Jags are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Titans held the Jets to just 124 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee stays at home on this short week where they are 4-1 this season — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 7 points or less. The Tennessee defense is a top-nine unit in yards allowed while ranking 6th in the league by holding their opponents to only 20.4 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: I would put more credence into the potential role of the spoiler for the Jaguars if they had a whole week to prepare — instead, I suspect they rested on their laurels after stepping up last week against the Colts. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing better football as of late as he gets back to 100% health. Look for this tough Titans team to take care of business on their home field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-03-18 |
Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Skins have been ravaged with injuries on the offensive side of the football. While the biggest lost player is quarterback Alex Smith, the attrition this team has suffered on their offensive line would devastate most teams. Washington has put four of their players that began the season on their two-deep depth chart on Injured Reserve with three of these players being starters — and their six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is questionable for tonight with rib and ankle injuries. The Skins are averaging 20.0 PPG for the season while scoring 19.1 PPG over their last three games and it is difficult seeing them putting up many more points than that. Adrian Peterson’s production has significantly declined as these injuries on the offensive line have mounted. Over the last month, the running back is averaging only 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not reached 70 yards from scrimmage since October 28th. Washington rushed for just 80 yards against the Cowboys — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to rush for at least 90 yards. Furthermore, the Skins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Quarterback Colt McCoy was a victim of this injured offensive line as well. He was sacked three times by Dallas while getting hitting eight times in that game. Washington has also been hit with injuries on defense but this unit is still playing well. For the season, the Skins rank 8th the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG led by a stout run defense that also ranks 8th in the league by allowing 100.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Washington is allowing just 19.4 PPG — and they hold their home hosts to only 19.2 PPG. The Skins did allow 258 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Washington has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense gave up 276 passing yards along with 402 total yards of offense to the Giants — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they allowed 7.31 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP. Philly is riddled with injuries in their secondary — but it helps that they are only facing McCoy rather than Smith at quarterback tonight. The Eagles are still playing strong run defense that ranks 10th in the league by allowing 103.6 rushing YPG. But this Philly offense is scoring only 17.3 PPG along with just 319.3 total YPG over their last three games. Philadelphia stays at home where they are holding only scoring 20.2 PPG — but they are also holding their visitors to that number. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philly has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after playing an NFC East rival.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have been hit very hard by the injury bug. Since the onus is on the offensive to execute plays to move the football, usually it is the defenses that look relatively better when injuries are spread out on both sides of the football. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two divisional rivals playing for the first time this season. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Chargers v. Steelers UNDER 53 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers are playing outstanding defense right now — and that unit is even better now that Joey Bosa has returned after missing most of the season due to injury. Los Angeles has allowed less than 20 points in six of their last seven games. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 13.0 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong defensive play should continue tonight as the Under is 35-16-1 in the LA’s last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers did generate 414 yards of offense last week against the Cardinals — but they have then seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Unfortunately for this offense, they will be without their top running back, Melvin Gordon tonight who is out with a knee injury. Now the Chargers go back on the road where they are only averaging 368.0 total YPG which is 34 YPG below their season average. But the LA defense keeps them competitive away from home as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has only scored 37 combined points over their last two games. They are getting outstanding play from their defense that not only leads the NFL in sacks but is allowing only 20.3 PPG along with just 264.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Steelers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of there last three games. Pittsburgh did generate 527 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.12 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Pittsburgh needs to get their rushing attack going again after only rushing for 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to gain more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. The Steelers have averaged 403.6 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The high Total set in the low-50s suggests that this shapes up to be a scoring fest. However, both these teams are playing great defense — scoring is going to be harder to come by for both teams. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won five straight games with their 27-24 win over Miami last week as a 9-point favorite. Jacksonville (3-8) has lost seven straight games with their 24-21 win at Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have hit rock bottom — so head coach Doug Marrone fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched quarterback Blake Bortles. But new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich is still limited by the offensive talent available to him. Quarterback Cody Kessler has only played in thirteen NFL games in his career. And the team will be without running back Leonard Fournette who was suspended for one game for his roughhouse behavior in last week’s game with the Bills. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.9 PPG. But the maligned Jaguars’ defense has played much better at home where they are holding their opponents to just 16.2 PPG along with only 261.6 total YPG. Last week’s game with Buffalo went Over the 36.5 point Total — but Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bills did rush for 167 yards last week — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Colts generated 455 yards of offense in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Colts defense has stepped up their level of play as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG along with only 330.7 total YPG. Andrew Luck has led an offense that has scored at least 27 points in six straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 12 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 29-26 win back on November 11th. While that game flew Over the 48 point Total, these two teams have still played 11 of their last 15 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-18 |
Saints v. Cowboys UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Saints offense that leads the NFL by scoring 37.2 PPG, the continued improved play of their defense too often gets the short shrift. New Orleans has allowed only 12.7 PPG over their last three games while limiting their last three opponents to just 282.0 total YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 23 points in seven of their last eight games with the lone exception being their 45-35 shootout with the Rams. The New Orleans run defense leads the NFL by allowing only 73.2 YPG — and opposing rushers average just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Nine of their last ten opponents have failed to rush for more than 100 yards — and their last three opponents have managed only 65 rushing YPG. The Saints pass rush has stepped as of late as well as they have combined for 13 sacks along with 25 hits on the quarterback over the last three weeks. This unit will be infused the return of their breakout rookie defensive lineman Marcus Davenport who has missed the last few weeks with a toe injury. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Saints have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. While New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in their last five contests. As the weather begins to turn, the Saints are starting to emphasize their rushing attack a bit more with Mark Ingram back in the mix after serving his four-game suspension. Drew Brees only attempted 22 passes last week against the Falcons. New Orleans only generated 312 yards of offense last week against the Atlanta defense. The Saints tend to run the ball more when they go on the road as well — they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. The formula for defeating the Saints will certainly be to run the ball to burn time off the clock and keep Brees off the field — Dallas is 5-1 this season when Ezekiel Elliott rushes for at least 100 yards. Despite last week’s offensive effort against the Skins, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Dallas has an outstanding defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 19.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up a mere 331.1 total YPG. The Cowboys run defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 93.6 YPG — and they are allowing only 3.46 YPC. They held Washington to just 80 rushing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Dallas has not allowed more than 28 points to an opponent all season. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these are going to attempt to run the football — yet both might be stymied in these efforts when facing their opposing strong run defenses. While that will likely lead to a course of events that will see more passing, the lack of an effective ground game will slow down these offenses. With the Total in the low-50s given the prowess of the Saints offense, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-18 |
Titans v. Texans UNDER 43 |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees in the middle of their game with the Colts as he went to the hospital with a medical scare — that had to play a role in them allowing 397 yards of offense. Pees has been cleared to run the defense tonight for this game. Expect a better effort from this Tennessee defense that allows only 19.7 PPG along with 305.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Tennessee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. But the Titans only score 16.3 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 297.2 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston’s previous game was also on the road in what resulted in a 19-17 win at Denver against the Broncos. The Texans have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. Houston returns home where they are allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 317.5 total YPG. Since Week Five, the Texans are allowing only 17.5 PPG with an improved defense. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 5 appearances for Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on September 16th with the Titans pulling off a 20-17 upset as the home underdog. Expect another lower-score game in this rematch. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Packers v. Vikings -3 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been incredibly resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight up loss. They return home where their defense thrives by holding their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with 273.4 total YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota is also a decisive 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games on their home field. Additionally, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 378 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week, they are then just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they are winless in five games while being outscored by -8.2 PPG in those games due to them allowing 29.8 PPG with the fewest points allowed being 27 to their home hosts. The Packers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games against NFC North foes.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t like where this Packers team is headed this season with head coach Mike McCarthy seemingly now a lame duck while Aaron Rodgers ignores his play selections at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota is also reeling — but their vastly superior roster depth should help them do what it takes to win this game in convincing fashion. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Steelers v. Broncos UNDER 48 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2-1) has won six straight games with their 20-16 win over Jacksonville last week as a 4-point favorite. Denver (4-6) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-22 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver allowed 479 yards in that contest — but the Under is then 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos return home where they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against a team with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 6 games as an underdog, the Broncos have played 5 of these games Under the Total. They will certainly try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep the Steelers off the field. That is what the Jaguars did last week as Pittsburgh was only on offense for 22:20 minutes of that game. As a result, the Steelers generated only 323 yards of offense. Pittsburgh did hold Jacksonville to only 243 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. The Steelers defense has raised their level of play — over their last three games, they are allowing only 17.7 PPG along with just 251.0 total YPG. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, not only have the Steelers played 30 of their last 43 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher but they have also played 8 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers offense is not nearly as potent when playing on the road they are scoring 5.5 PPG below their season average. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). THE SITUATION: New England (7-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago with their 34-10 loss at Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (3-7) has lost four straight games with their 41-10 loss to Buffalo two Sundays ago where they were a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. It is time for Bill Belichick and his coaching staff to get back to basics: run the football to burn time off the clock and protect their defense. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. This is particularly the case when the Patriots go on the road where their offense is not nearly as explosive as it is in Foxboro. New England is scoring only 20.6 PPG on the road while averaging 312.6 total YPG — and those numbers are far below their 28.0 PPG scoring average along with the 377.2 total YPG they are averaging this season. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, New England has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Patriots defense has been playing pretty well. Even after their bad effort against the Titans the last time out, they have held their last three opponents to score only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 362.0 total YPG. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. New York has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss at home. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been declared out for this game with his foot injury — so it will be the veteran Josh McCown under center for this game. What McCown bring in his savvy and knowledge to this position is mitigated by his limited physical skills. He completed 17 of 34 passes against the Bills but that only resulted in 135 yards of offense — and he threw two interceptions. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. New York is scoring an anemic 8.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 229.3 total YPG. The Jets need to run the football to keep Tom Brady off the field. The Jets defense has been playing pretty well — they have held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Bills behind Matt Barkley (!) generated 451 yards against them in their last game — but they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season — they last played on December 31st where the Patriots won by a 26-6 score. These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — look for this afternoon showdown to make it five in a row. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|