At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: While both of these teams are dealing with a host of injuries, the internal cohesion of these two squads is quite different. For Las Vegas, the Wicked Witch of the West, Josh McDaniels, has already been fired — so the locker room is happy. The players like interim head coach Antonio Pierce — and the former New York Giants star linebacker remains a candidate to be named the head coach moving forward. The team has consistently played hard for him since he took over — and they have taken the field for him despite being on the injured list during the week. So while defensive end Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams are listed as questionable, I expect both to play. Crosby did not practice this week which is not unusual on a short week. Adams came down with an illness yesterday but he should be able to play through it 36 hours later. Crosby and Adams will be the best two players on the field if they play tonight — and that is a consideration I undervalued earlier this year when the Raiders hosted Green Bay. Superstars matter — especially in games between two mediocre teams. Running back Josh Jacobs' questionable status is more in doubt with a quad — but if he plays, Pierce says it will be the “Josh Jacobs Show” and we should be in great shape. Even if he doesn’t, home-field advantage should help pave the way for this team. Las Vegas has been solid at home with a 4-3 record along with a +2.0 net Points-Per-Game margin and a +6.7 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Raiders' defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to three points. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in their last game. The expectation is that Pierce will turn back to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after not committing to a starter after the offense failed to score a point. As long as it is not Brian Hoyer, the Raiders offense should rebound with a better effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. The story of Los Angeles is much more dire. Their season is done after the season-ending right finger injury to quarterback Justin Herbert last week. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons. Head coach Brandon Staley will almost certainly be fired at the end of the season (although I thought he was a goner last year at this time). First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is also likely to be let go — if not, management would have elevated him to be the interim head coach to give him a test run as the potential next head coach. Given comments to the press like from veteran Austin Ekeler, the team does not particularly like Staley with his reckless fourth down decisions and failure to improve the defense. In hindsight, his resume from being the defensive coordinator during the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl run seems to be thanks to the presence of Aaron Donald. I’m skeptical regarding the kind of effort the Chargers’ players are going to provide tonight for their lame-duck coaches. Injuries leave the remaining talent thin. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. And on the other side of the ball, defensive stalwart Nick Bosa is out tonight with a sprained foot. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. But the Giants managed only 220 total yards against New England last week — and in their last three games, they are generating just 228.0 total Yards-Per-Game. In their last four games, they are scoring just 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored more than 17 points only once in their last ten games. New York has played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 10 points, they have played 39 of those games Under the Total. They do stay at home for this one where they are generating just 237.8 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 7.4 PPG — but they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. The Giants have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home. Green Bay held the Chiefs offense to just 337 total yards of offense in their victory last week. The Packers are ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Linebacker Rashan Gary is becoming a superstar in the league — he has 9.5 sacks this season with 4.5 of them coming in the last three weeks. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Packers' three straight victories have coincided with them winning the turnover battle in all three games. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after two straight games where they won the turnover battle — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle for three straight contests. And while they have scored 56 combined points in two straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Now they go back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Giants have played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th. Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the Dallas Super Bowl as they both host their arch-rivals and have the opportunity to post their first victory against a team with a winning record this season. Head coach Mike McCarthy missing time this week after an emergency appendectomy is not ideal — but the team had extra days to rest and prepare for this rematch from just last month so I don’t consider those circumstances substantial enough to change the play. The Cowboys' offense has been on another level since their bye week when McCarthy decided to be more aggressive in the passing game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has in his entire career — he leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has stepped up as a dangerous second option to CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. Left tackle Tyron Smith is playing at a very high level again. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. The Cowboys' defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — but they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 30 or more points. The Cowboys stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 15 games going back to last season. They are generating 438.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 41.0 PPG this season — and they are outscoring their guests by +24.2 net PPG with their defense only allowing 15.8 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points. I don’t love fading a team that just got beat by 23 points — but this looks like a lull period for the Eagles who are in a terrible situational spot. Teams tend to struggle after playing the physical 49ers in the previous week — and this has been a  brutal stretch of games for Philadelphia having previously played Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. Philly surviving this stretch with a 3-2 mark was considered a very acceptable result before the season started — and they have already clinched that accomplishment even with a loss tonight. The Eagles have been getting by with smoke and mirrors as well — they have been outgained in yardage in five straight contests. Furthermore, their net point differential mark of +58 points is a historically low number — since 2008, that mark ranks 56 of the 58 NFL teams that had won at least ten games after Week 13. Philly’s linebackers have been a weak link — and the defense is not generating enough pass rush. Since Week Eight, the Eagles rank 28th in the NFL with a sack rate of 4.4% — and their 10 sacks during that span that ranks 27th in the league. Their sack rate of 5.3% on third down this season ranks 30th in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass defense ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 260 YPG — and they rank 31st in the league in touchdown passes allowed. In their last four games, they are allowing 29.0 PPG. The Eagles have not been resilient lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have only scored six and seven points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their blowout loss to the 49ers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Prescott thrives against divisional rivals — he has a 30-8 straight-up record in starts against the NFC East with 72 touchdown passes and only 20 interceptions while posting a Passer Rating of 101. Against the Eagles at home at A&T Stadium, Prescott has a 5-1 career record with 12 touchdown passes. In the their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th, Dallas got inside the Eagles’ territory in their final four possessions but only came away with nine points due to some unusual circumstances. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won three games in a row after their 27-20 victory against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (4-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 17-10 victory against Carolina as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts held the Buccaneers to just 298 yards last week as they continue to play very good defense. Through Week Eight of the season, Indianapolis was giving up 371 Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Nine in their three games (including their bye week), they have held their last three opponents to just 304.3 YPG and 13.0 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 20 points. They have risen to 11th in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now located at FTN). Digging deeper into those numbers, through the first eight weeks of the season they were allowing 247 passing YPG and their opponents were scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at a 64% clip. Since then, they are giving up only 161 passing YPG — and their opponents are scoring touchdowns in just 22% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The Colts defense is doing a great job in forcing turnovers — they have forced at least one turnover in 16 straight games and they have eight takeaways in their last four contests. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Now they face a Titans team generating only 284.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 285 YPG. Gardner Minshew has been steady under center for this team replacing the injured Anthony Richardson — but this is the Colts' just second true road game in their last six contests after one of their technical road games was in Germany. They are generating just 299.2 total YPG on the road which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Indianapolis has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is nursing a thumb injury. Minshew has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 87 throws. Tennessee only managed 264 total yards last week — but they did hold the Panthers to just 258 yards of offense in their victory. Since making a big splash in his professional debut against Atlanta at the end of October, rookie quarterback Will Levis has been only okay since. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in his last four starts — and he is completing under 60% of his passes. Running back Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step or two. The Titans are averaging only 103 rushing YPG this season which ranks 21st in the league and is the lowest number for this team since 2015. Tennessee has scored no more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have generated just 236.0 total YPG in their last three contests which is resulting in only 12.3 PPG. But the Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 288.3 total YPG and 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Additionally, the Titans have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, while the Colts are allowing 24.4 PPG, Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders against teams allowing 24.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against division foes. Tennessee is avenging a 23-16 loss in Indy as a 2-point road favorite on October 8th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now —  but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Buccaneers to just 287 total yards last week to control that game. San Francisco has held seven of their opponents to less than 20 points — and their last three opponents have scored only 16.0 Points-Per-Game against them. The addition of defensive end Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline gave them a second dynamic pass rusher to pair with Nick Bosa on the other side. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay last week — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating in the game by completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards last week — but the Niners have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. They generated 7.64 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging 7.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. The Niners have played 16 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Seattle only gained 291 total yards last week in their loss to the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. While he did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning field goal (Jason Myers missed the kick), it would not be terribly surprising if he was less than 100% in this game or got knocked out of the game against this now even better Niners pass rush. Seattle has only generated 310.3 total YPG in their last three games which has resulted in a 16.0 PPG scoring average — and they will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Niners score 27.9 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams scoring 27 or more PPG. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against NFC West rivals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles outlasted the Cowboys despite only gaining 292 total yards against them. With tight end Dallas Goedert out for this game with a forearm injury and Jalen Hurts dealing with a nagging knee injury, the Philly offense is not as powerful as the one that lost by a 38-35 score to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February 12th. The victory came on the heels of a 38-31 win at Washington the week prior — and the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against NFC East rivals by seven points or less. They were trailing at halftime by a 17-14 score to the Cowboys after going into halftime with a 17-10 deficit to the Commanders — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Kansas City only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. The Chiefs’ defense has become elite — they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 15.9 PPG and 288.2 total YPG. They lead the league by allowing only 176 passing YPG. They rank first in the NFL in both sacks and                               Quarterback Hits per Game (at 7). Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. But they have struggled to get their run game going lately as they have not rushed for more than 96 yards in five straight games. By averaging only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games, the offense is getting off schedule and Mahomes is facing too many third-and-long situations. When Mahomes had Tyreek Hill as a weapon, he could overcome those circumstances — but his young wide receiving corps now is unreliable and drop too many passes. It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs have played all five of those games Under the Total because they cannot sustain drives — and they lack the explosiveness in their pass game now. Mahomes intended air yards per pass attempt is at a career low this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.5 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.0 PPG. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight those games Under the Total in November. They have also played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks. Head coach Andy Reid’s teams going back his tenure in Philadelphia have played 26 of their 33 games Under the Total after a bye week — and his Chiefs teams have played 12 of their 15 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a bye week — and Sirianni’s teams have played 5 of their 6 games Under the Total against opponents winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA over that span — more on that group below. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” — the problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett (who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”). Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He has less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). While Wilson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is great, that’s not why Denver gave him $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K signing bonus. Even with the fewer dropbacks, Wilson has still been sacked at least four times in four of his last five games. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has lost all four games this season when Wilson is asked to pass the ball more than 29 times. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total YPG — and they have been getting outgained by -32.0 net YPG in those contests. At home, the Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG while getting outgained by -23.2 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favorited by up to three points. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been productive with his arm and his legs while not making mistakes. He has completed 67.2% of his passes in his two starts for the Vikings for 426 passing yards while adding another 110 rushing yards. For the season including his time with Arizona, he has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions (none with Minnesota). He will not have Justin Jefferson to throw to just yet for this game — but rookie Jordan Addison has been a breakout star in his absence and tight end T.J. Hockensen has been reliable. Dobbs’ threat with his legs has unlocked their running game as they have generated 133.5 rushing YPG in his two games while running the ball 33 times in both games. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They held the Saints to only 65 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They have won four of their five games on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG and holding their home hosts to 19.6 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 upset loss against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 16-12 upset loss at Las Vegas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo outgained the Broncos by +69 net yards despite having their offense on the field for just 22:39 minutes of that game. Once again, turnovers did the Bills in with Josh Allen throwing two interceptions with the team spotting Denver a -3 net turnover margin. Buffalo has now lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and it is a leading reason why the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in six straight contests. Feeling something had to be done to change the temperature inside the club, head coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Joe Burrow guru at LSU   Joe Brady. The production of the offense remains good — Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in Success Rate, fourth in Expected Points Added per play, and third in 3rd Down Efficiency. The Bills' fortunes will change when they stop making so many mistakes with the football. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. And in their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those contests. The Bills did rush for 192 yards last week which was an encouraging long-term sign for them moving forward — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games coming off playing on Monday Night Football. Now they play a Jets team that has forced only two turnovers in their last three games. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jets offense is simply too limited with Zach Wilson under center with him still making rookie mistakes. They have not scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. Wilson has only one touchdown pass in his last 189 throws over the last five games. His Passer Rating of 74 this season is last in the NFL for starting quarterbacks. Granted, a banged-up offensive line that was going to be a problem for this team even when at full strength has compounded the matter. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL by scoring just 16.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are last in the league with only eight offensive touchdowns, last with a 25.0% 3rd Down Rate, and last with a 22.7% Red Zone Touchdown Rate. Wilson has attempted 40 and 49 passes in the last two weeks which is far from ideal — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after playing two games in a row where they attempted 40 or more passes. They have played four straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games played on turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will have the additional motivation to avenge their 22-16 upset loss in New York against the Jets in the opening week of the season on September 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven points or less. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals' defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. But Cincinnati has played 29 of their last 39 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 37 of their last 52 road games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 20 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Additionally, the Bengals have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cincinnati offense will not be at 100% tonight with wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury. Missing Higgins hurts because the Bengals are not getting enough from their running game — they have not rushed for more than 66 yards in their last two games which means that the Ravens' defense can focus on taking away wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase without getting burned too badly. Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. In their four road games this season, they are only generating 283.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 45 of their last 63 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. They have covered the point spread just once in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then played 41 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury — but they still have cornerback Brandon Stephens to cover Chase.  They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and they are holding their opponents to just 273.6 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 15.7 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when favored. Baltimore has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by three points or less to their opponent. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The “sharps” are on the Broncos tonight while the public is backing the Bills. It is interesting that Buffalo is laying about a touchdown despite seeing their last five games all decided by six points or less. The thing about the “sharps” is that they are wrong lots of times — just the public is. I suspect this is a “get right” game for a Bills team under sharp scrutiny right now. The Bills were 6-3 at this point of the season last year before they rattled off seven straight victories. The conventional wisdom of the very smart sports people is that Buffalo’s offense is faltering — but the numbers tell a different story. Their Success Rate is up from 47.5% last year to 47.8% this season — and their Expected Points Per Drive from 0.47 last season has risen to 0.66 EPA/Drive this year. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN) rank them as the second-best offense in the league. The Bills are not meeting point spread expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Turnovers are hurting this team — and Josh Allen has been too loose with the football trying to force big plays. After their -2 net turnover margin last week, they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. But the Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in four straight games. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They return home to Highmark Stadium where they are 4-0 while scoring 31.0 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.7 PPG and outgaining their guests by +84.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Denver returns to the field after benefiting from Patrick Mahomes playing a rare bad game while being under the weather — they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin after forcing five Chiefs turnovers. But the Broncos only gained 240 yards in that game despite their offense being on the field for 33:47 minutes. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they posted a +2 or better net turnover margin. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. Their defense is giving up 528.7 total YPG on the road which is resulting in their home hoss generating 39.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after their 27-6 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Detroit (6-2) has won five of their last six games after their 26-14 win at home against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite back on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have emerged as the darlings of the NFL this season — and bettors certainly adore them after starting the season with a 6-2 ATS mark after closing out last season on a 9-1 ATS run. Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. I don’t think the Lions have proven enough to be treated as road favorites — traveling out west, mind you — against AFC playoff teams. Yet Detroit is a popular choice for betters even in this spot. The biggest game the Lions have played in the Dan Campbell era was not their opening game of the season in Kansas City (which they pulled the upset, of course) — it was their lone point spread loss in the second half of the season last year when they got beat at Carolina as a 1.5 road favorite on December 24th by a 37-23 score against a Panthers team with Steve Wilks serving as an interim head coach. The Lions are taking care of business now after their statement win against the Chiefs (playing without Travis Kelce) — but they have benefited from some soft competition. Their five victories against Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas represent five teams with losing records that combine for a 15-28 mark. Their lone loss during their last six games was their 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore that has somehow just gotten excused away as “everyone knows that NFC teams can’t beat Lamar Jackson the first time they play him” — as if the Ravens average margin of victory in that 18-1 mark against NFC with Lamar is 20 Points-Per-Game or something. Can we just slow our roll a bit before we crown Detroit as champions? They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They did hold the Raiders to just 157 total yards in the game where the Las Vegas locker room coup against Josh McDaniels came to fruition — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 200 total yards in their last game. Jared Goff is playing great — but he remains much more effective when playing at home where he has a 106.5 QBR along with a 72.2% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average with eight touchdown passes, and three interceptions. Those numbers dip when on the road this season where he has an 88.0 QBR with a 65.0% completion percentage, a 6.9 YPA, four touchdown passes, and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by up to seven points. I am not sold at all on this Los Angeles team under head coach Brandon Staley — but they made the playoffs last year and will be in the mix to return to the postseason again this year as long as Justin Herbert is still under center. The encouraging aspect of this team is the improved play of their defense, albeit against lesser competition. They registered eight sacks last week against the Jets while posting a +3 net turnover margin. They are tied for first in the NFL with a +9 net turnover margin. They have held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less with the lone exception being Kansas City. These are good signs for a defense that boasts Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have only registered three wins by double-digits on the road in the last three seasons — and they covered the point spread in all 3 games after that accomplishment. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their improved defense — and not getting into shootouts — is a more reliable formula for success for them. Los Angeles has played five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing four or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Three of the Chargers' four losses have been decided by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night. New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers might have played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Bears to just 295 total yards of offense. In theory, a defense that sports linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack along with safety Derwin James should be pretty good. They have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense only scored 17 points in two straight games before taking advantage of the suspect Bears defense last week. This Los Angeles offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. The Chargers have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football including their last four appearances. New York has played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Jets won their previous game by a 20-14 score against Philadelphia — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their push last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. New York has an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. But the offense remains limited with Zach Wilson under center. They have not scored more than 20 points in five of their seven games — and they have scored 13 or fewer points thee times. They are last in the NFL with only 102 first downs on the season. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total —  and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games —  and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 43-30 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-1) has won two games in a row with their 38-31 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas comes off perhaps their best game of the season where they gained 24 first downs and had their offense on the field for 35:28 minutes. Controlling the time of possession will be the formula for success against the Eagles to keep the Cowboys' defense fresh — this is the expressed reason why head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways with previous offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take over the play-calling himself. As it is, Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 24 or more first downs and held on to the football for at least 34 minutes. The Cowboys have generated 6.45 Yards-Per-Play and 6.10 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more in two straight games. Dallas has scored 30 or more points in all three of their games at home — but it has been a different story on the road. They scored two non-offensive touchdowns in their opening 40-0 win in New York against the Giants — but they have only scored 56 combined points in their next three games on the road.  But this stout Cowboys defense should have something to prove after giving up 40 points in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now residing at FTN). They have not allowed more than 92 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have then played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total on the road after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Philadelphia has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Eagles have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win against a division rival by seven points or less. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while the Eagles gave up 472 total yards to the Commanders last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. Even if he cannot play the entire game, Mitch Trubisky is a solid backup — he completed 10 of 16 passes for 73 yards in relief last week against the Jags. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Admittedly, Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. I am not going to defend Canada — but the Steelers getting back wide receiver Dionte Johnson from injury last week really helps since it gives them a second viable target alongside George Pickens. Johnson was targeted 14 times last week — he had eight catches for 85 receiving yards. Pittsburgh has the opportunity to find success in their ground game against this Titans defense that has allowed at least 139 rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee is allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. On a short week, the Steelers should play well tonight when considering they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 home games after a loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Steelers' defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. With a healthy T.J. Watt on the field, the Steelers have a 12-5 straight-up record in those last 17 games. Now Watt and company face a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Titans go back on the road where they are winless in their four games this season while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG and getting outgained by -130.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee only manages to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have failed to cover the point spread in all three of the games on the road in head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure when the Total was set in the 35.5-38 point range. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the AFC North. And while the Steelers are only averaging 271.7 total YPG this season, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not averaging more than 285 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to score more than 17 points in all but two of their games. One of the things I realized in my epic fail in taking the Las Vegas-Green Bay Over three weeks ago is that head coach Josh McDaniels does not have much confidence in his offense. Even in the first half, McDaniels was instructing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to burn the play clock close to zero on each play on offense. McDaniels probably does not have much faith in his defense either — so keeping that unit as fresh as possible is a priority. The Raiders' game plan will likely be to slow the game down, keep things close, and perhaps Garoppolo and Davante Adams can steal this game. Las Vegas did hold the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. They suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week — and Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Under the Total after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. As it is, the Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Las Vegas ran the ball only 14 times for 39 yards against the Bears — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for 50 or more yards. And while they got outgained by 134 net rushing yards last week, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Detroit has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did not score in the first half against the Ravens — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. Detroit allowed a whopping 503 yards last week with Baltimore generating 9.15 Yards-Per-Play — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, Detroit has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears only gained 323 yards against the Raiders — but they held them to just 335 yards while posting a +3 net turnover margin. Chicago has found a winning formula by running the football which is helping their keep their defense fresh. The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in three straight games — their last three opponents are generating only 281.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. Not coincidentally, they have run the ball at least 31 times in four straight contests which is helping them burn time off the clock. In their last three games, they are averaging 33:07 minutes per game on offense after posting a 34:06 time of possession mark against the Raiders last week. This will be the strategy against the Chargers’ Justin Herbert — especially with a rookie quarterback under center playing in his first road game. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. As it is, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory by 14 or more points. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. After passing for 939 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first three games this season, he has only thrown for 650 yards in his last three games with a surprisingly low 57% completion percentage with four touchdown passes but four interceptions. Los Angeles is scoring generating 311.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in only 19.3 PPG. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have only played one Under this season — but the likely limitations on Bagent will impact the game script of this contest. Los Angeles has played a decisive 61 of their last 100 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after allowing 7.67 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Chargers have played 50 of their last 77 home games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 20-10 win at home against Arizona as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (4-2) has won two games in a row with their 39-38 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Seattle defense has stepped up since the return of Jamal Adams from injury which has allowed them to play a big nickel scheme with three safeties on the field. They have only allowed 30 combined points in their last three games with their opponents averaging just 237.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 168 passing yards in their last three games — and none of their last three opponents have totaled more than the 249 yards that the Cardinals managed last week. Seattle’s run defense has vastly improved as well from last season when they allowed 150.2 rushing YPG and ranked 30th in the league. This season, they are holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in only 87 YPG on the ground. This is a very good sign for a Pete Carroll-coached team as the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in three straight games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in the last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Cleveland got outgained by -140 net yards last week to the Colts used a fumble recovery in the end zone to overcome that production deficit to pull out that game. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis offense exposed the Cleveland defense by generating 456 yards last week. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up 450 or more yards in that contest. After an outstanding start to the season, the Cleveland defense has taken a step back as they have allowed 27.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. I do worry about Seattle quarterback Geno Smith throwing against the Browns’ man coverage — he performs better against zone schemes. That said, wider receiver Tyler Lockett is expected to play this afternoon — and there have not been many games this season where DK. Metcalf, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Lockett have all been healthy and on the field together this season. Running back Kenneth Walker III is off the injury report as well after not practicing for most of the week — and he should have success against a faltering Browns’ run defense that has allowed their last three opponents to average 136 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. And then there is Cleveland having to rely on P.J. Walker under center given the lingering injury issues to Deshaun Watson. Walker only completed 15 of 32 passes for 178 yards with an interception last week. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last four appearances going back to last season. In his two games this year, he is completing only 50% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has thrown three interceptions in 66 throws. He has a QBR of 48.2 this year. He leads a Browns team that has failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 59 road games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. The Buccaneers' defense is solid — they are only allowing 17.3 PPG and they rank 12th in the league in Defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Buffalo only gained 339 total yards in their loss on the road to the Patriots last week. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been a significant drop-off as a play-caller and leader of the offense from previous OC Brian Daboll. This offense is too dependent on big plays — but the explosiveness with this offense has declined perhaps because Dorsey's reliance on 11 personnel (with three wide receivers) is too predictable. The Bills are scoring 19.7 PPG in their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo commits to running the football early in this game. I suspect this was a mandate from head coach Sean McDermott at halftime the previous week in their Sunday night game against the New York Giants when they rallied from a 6-0 halftime deficit to win the game by a 14-9 score. The ability to execute long drives was very encouraging for this team long-term — but going into half-time trailing by a 13-3 score to the Patriots last week led them to abandon their running game behind bruising running back Latavius Murray. Buffalo averages 31 rushing attempts per game at home as opposed to 23 rushes on the road — and their 138 rushing YPG at home helps them average 33:01 minutes per game on offense McDermott needs to address his side of the ball after Mac Jones passed for 272 yards with the struggling New England offense generating 364 total yards against them. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense should help this week. While the Patriots averaged 6.74 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Bills have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday. Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia held the Jets to just 244 total yards — and they outgained them by +104 net yards. But a -4 net turnover margin did the Eagles in. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin last week. Now the Eagles return home where quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 starts with 32 touchdown passes to just six interceptions — and he posted a 102.8 Passer Rating in those last 13 starts at home. Much has been said about the Philly offense being out of sync. While I do think the transition from previous offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who took the head coaching job with Indianapolis, to new OC Brian Johnson explains why they are not in full-playoff mode from last season, this offense has still been effective. The Offensive DVOA numbers by the Football Outsiders rank this unit as the seventh most efficient in the league. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games while putting up 34 points twice. For some context, the Eagles scored more than 24 points just three times in their first six games last season — and only one of those six games saw them score more than 29 points. The signing of veteran wide receiver Julio Jones will help since he gives Hurts a pair of reliable hands as a third wide receiver. And while right tackle Lane Johnson was on the injury report earlier in the week, he is expected to play tonight. Hurts has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he did all of last year — but playing at home should help settle him down. By the way, some of this rise in interceptions is simply from Hurts being asked to throw the ball more early on. His 213 pass attempts are 29 more than his number after six games last year — almost five more pass attempts per game. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking tonight — Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. Miami comes off a cushy two-game home stand against the New York Giants and Carolina who they beat by 15 and 21 points respectively. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row at home by double-digits. And while their dynamic offense scored 31 and 42 points in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. Miami has taken full advantage of their easy early schedule — their five victories were against teams who began the day with a combined 5-24 record. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 99 Passer Rating. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Establishing a pass rush on Tua Tagovailoa to make him uncomfortable is essential — the Dolphins have a 3-6 record when he is sacked three or more times while having a 1-4 record when he is sacked at least four times. Philly ranks seventh in the NFL by averaging 3.3 sacks per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins' lone loss this season was in the northeast to begin the month where Buffalo beat them by a 48-20 score. The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in Weeks Five through Nine. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset loss at home to Washington as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-6 loss at home to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta dominated the Commanders in terms of yardage last week — they outgained them by +209 net yards with the Falcons generating 402 yards while allowing just 193 yards. A -3 net turnover margin did them in. Atlanta has lost the turnover battle by more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in two straight games and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing the turnover in three straight games. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has an 0-4 record in his NFL career in his four starts on the road — and he is overseeing an offense that is scoring just 10 Points-Per-Game in those contests. And yet Atlanta is a road underdog getting less than a field goal in many spots — a very fishy line given the Ridder’s road struggles. For the record, Ridder did complete 22 of 33 passes in a start on the road against Baltimore last season — so his road issues are probably being overplayed a bit. Atlanta is 7-7 ATS in their 14 road games as an underdog (not a losing trend) — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting up to three points. The Falcons are outgaining their opponents by +52.8 net Yards-Per-Game. Head coach Arthur Smith’s emphasis on running the football has helped his defense play surprisingly well. Atlanta ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing only 278.2 total YPG — and they are fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 179 Passing YPG. They hold their opponents to a 31% conversion rate on third down, ranking second in the NFL — and they rank third in pressure rate on passing down despite blitzing only 22.7% of the time which means they are getting to the quarterback without sacrificing a pass defender. Tampa Bay only gained 251 total yards in their loss to the Lions last week. Despite their winning record, they are getting outgained by -39.4 net YPG. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. The Buccaneers have played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing an Under in their last game while failing to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball — they only generate 78.8 rushing YPG which ranks 29th in the league. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt this team — and their 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry average is tied for last in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is being asked to bail this team out with his arm on third down — and his success on the money down this season is not sustainable as his game against Detroit demonstrated. Tampa Bay gained only 46 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. And while their run defense has been very good again under head coach Todd Bowles, opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 of their passes against them — and they rank 26th in the league by allowing 247 passing YPG. They also rank 31st in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 49% of their third downs. The Bucs stay home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points.   

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday. Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars got outgained by -121 net yards last week — but three interceptions by the Colts’ Gardner Minshew helped them overcome that yardage deficit with a +3 net turnover margin. Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. Despite their winning record, this team is getting outgained by -8.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was if they were a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory. All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seemed as if the “plan” was to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. Admittedly, Ridley has been great and the defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones and cornerback Tyson Campbell are also out for this game due to injury. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after being outgained by their previous opponent by -100 or more yards. And while the Jaguars have only allowed 6 and 7 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half of their last two games. New Orleans outgained the Texans by +133 net yards by somehow found a way to get upset in that game. The Saints may have a .500 record but they have outscored their opponents by +2.2 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +34.2 net YPG. New Orleans should be playing better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. My biggest question for this team in the offseason was whether general manager Mickey Loomis was simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or was he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints were seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. Over a quarter into the season, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. Carr has been pretty much the same quarterback he was for the Raiders — outstanding at times but also occasionally infuriating. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards last week while leading the New Orleans offense to 430 total yards. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. With running back Alvin Kamara back and wide receiver Michael Thomas seemingly back in form to complement Chris Olive, the New Orleans offense still has nice potential — and Carr has been known to have big games on national television.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-16 upset win against Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-2) has won two games in a row after completing their two-game sweep in London with a 25-20 upset win against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return home as conquering heroes after their upset victory against the Bills — but one of the reasons we were on Jacksonville last week was the situational edge they enjoyed with that being their second week in London while Buffalo was still dealing with potential jet lag and getting accustomed to being in England. Now this Jags team becomes the first team to play an NFL game after two straight games played across the pond. While this is unprecedented, it is interesting to note that all 11 teams that returned to the US to play in a game without a bye the first week back all found themselves trailing to tied in the fourth quarter. If even these teams experienced a travel hangover, Jacksonville is likely to come out sluggish this afternoon. They controlled that game against the Bills by generating 29 first downs with their offense on the field for 38:12 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after being on offense for at least 34 minutes and gaining 24 or more first downs. They ran for 196 yards last week against Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They only gave up seven points in the first half of both their games in London — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 home games in October. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. Gardner Minshew stepped up in relief for an injured Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards in leading the team to victory. At this point in his career, Minshew may be the best backup in the league. He is completing 68.7% of his passes this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his 83 attempts this year. He does not lack confidence — and he has running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield again with his contract dispute settled. Taylor will probably split time again with Zack Moss who was outstanding last week by gaining 165 yards on the ground last week with two touchdowns. The Colts averaged 7.15 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last contest. This is a solid football team under rookie head coach Shane Steichen. They rank 13th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA and 16th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics from Football Outsiders — and those are surprising rankings for a team that finished 4-10-1 last year. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are many people’s sleeper team this season — so their victory against Buffalo confirms that prior belief for these folks. But after only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG last season, they are only outgaining their opponents this year by +14.2 YPG and outscoring them by +0.6 PPG, down from their +3.2 net PPG margin last year. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying up to seven points. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Now facing this horrendous Broncos defense that particularly struggles against the run, expect head coach Andy Reid to be quite content just running the ball — and that will burn time off the clock. Denver is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. And while the Broncos are also giving up 263 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Chiefs have played 36 of their last 56 games Under the Total against opponents allowing 260 or more passing YPG. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Perhaps their scoring was lower in these home games because they did not need to push the pedal because of their strong play on defense. They held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. This year’s Chiefs’ defense is even better with the continued development of their second-year players. Defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook form a great foundation on that side of the ball for years — and, of course, defensive tackle Chris Jones’ contract dispute is resolved and he is back in the mix after missing the Lions game. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 16.0 PPG and 301.4 YPG while not giving up more than 21 points all season. In their two home games, the Chiefs are allowing just 15.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. Kansas City has played 15 of their last 24 home games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played a decisive 42 of 64 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Denver only gained 308 total yards last week — but “Russell Wilson is not the problem!” Ever since the football left his hand in Super Bowl 49 and somehow ended in the arms of New England’s Malcolm Butler at the goal line to cost Seattle that championship, it’s never Wilson’s fault. “Let Russ Cook!” And when Russ was finally allowed to cook by being liberated from the conservative defensive coach Pete Carroll, the fireworks were inevitable with Wilson’s opportunity to construct an offensive scheme with the offensive coordinator that helped Aaron Rodgers win MVPs! But when personal parking spaces and offices in the building did not lead to huge numbers or wins, it was decided that it was all head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s fault. Bring in an adult like Sean Payton and everything will come together! Unironically, these folks were anxious for Payton to get Wilson back to the comfort level that he enjoyed when playing with the Seahawks — as if Payton implements the Brian Schottenheimer playbook, all will be great again (despite Schottenheimer being the arch-villain in the Let Russ Cook drama). Even now, five games into what is already a lost season, there remains a contingent who remain fully committed to the “It’s Not Russ’ Fault” narrative as they post tweets about how good his numbers are again. If the analytics folks want to privilege the empty calorie statistics from when the Broncos were trailing by 30 or so points against the Dolphins or laud Wilson’s 308 passing yards in Denver’s game against Washington where they blew a 21-3 lead (Not Russ’s Fault!) while he completed only 56.0% of his passes, well, I guess they can. Admittedly, Wilson’s interceptions are down. And he has been more mobile again (his defenders are quick to point out that he dropped weight in the offseason yet leave unanswered the mystery regarding how he gained 20 pounds last year — perhaps Wilson was force-fed Twinkies by that idiot Hackett in their 7 AM sessions last August when Russ was putting his personal stamp on the offense?). But Wilson has passed for more than 223 yards in just two of his five games — and the Broncos have not scored more than 21 points in three of their five games. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has heroically returned to his 2021 Seattle form (when his not being allowed to cook was the crime against humanity), and he has done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, and Chicago rank 24th, 26th, 25th, and 31st in the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA rankings. The Jets rank 15th in Defensive DVOA (and were without cornerback D.J. Reed) — yet Wilson completed just 20 of 31 passes against them for 196 passing yards in that loss. Now Wilson faces the best defense he has faced this season according to the Defensive DVOA numbers that place the Chiefs 11th — on a short week to boot. As it is, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset double-digit loss as a home favorite. Denver has given up at least 28 points in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they allowed the Jets to rush for 234 yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos have played 11 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total from Week Five to Week Nine. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay got embarrassed on national television — but with the extra few days to rest and prepare, expect a much better effort from them tonight. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they got outgained by -173 net yards with the Lions generating 401 yards against them, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. My main question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason dealt with the possibility that the Packers would respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. The Packers will not have running back Aaron Jones tonight as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury — but getting to play this Raiders team may be just what the doctor ordered. Las Vegas is a mess on and off the field. On the field, the Raiders rank 31st in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics deployed by Football Outsiders while ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA. Off the field, the release of linebacker Chandler Jones for his personal issues is just the latest drama impacting this team. Second-year Josh McDaniels does not appear to have complete support in the locker room with veterans like wide receiver Davante Adams expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will take the field tonight. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road to a divisional foe. The Chargers outrushed them by -79 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry this season after generating 4.9 YPC during his 1653 rushing yards campaign last year. His decrease in production may not be all his fault as he is rushing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Raiders have one of the worst rosters in the league after years of disastrous drafts in the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Coming from the NFL Network to be a “yes” man for Gruden, Mayock drafted as if his only scouting was watching the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time college football games on national television on Saturdays after sleeping through the early game here in Vegas. Las Vegas is starting slow which is an indication of poorly designed early play scripts on offense. After trailing 13-7 against Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, they went into the locker room last week trailing the Chargers by a 24-7 score. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 games after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of their last game including covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games under those circumstances. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Las Vegas has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 54 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected close games with them listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-1) comes into this showdown off a 38-3 win against New England as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-0) maintained their unbeaten season with a 35-16 victory against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Patriots to just 253 yards in their blowout victory last week. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas may have the best defense in the league. They are holding their opponents to just 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank as the top defense in the NFL using the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. They also lead the league in third-down defense and turnover differential. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three of their four games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers hold their opponents to just 4.7 YPP — and the Cowboys have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams not allowing more than 4.75 YPP. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. The 49ers’ defense is also outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 284.3 total YPG which results in their opponents scoring only 14.5 PPG. They rank seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. The Niners do have an explosive offensive — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. They did generate 7.6 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after averaging 6.5 to more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played twice since 2022 with San Francisco following up a 23-17 win in the 2022 NFC Wildcard round of the playoffs with a 19-12 victory last year in the NFC Divisional Playoffs — and that game was after the Niners had Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy in their starting lineup but only generated 312 total yards of offense against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2) was on a two-game losing streak before their 30-7 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (3-1) comes off a 28-3 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh got embarrassed last week — and they are banged up with a bunch of injuries including quarterback Kenny Pickett who is likely to play with a knee brace. This is an endorsement of the Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin who reliably has his team ready to play in situations like this. In Pittsburgh’s circles, they were anxious about getting back late from a delayed flight after their Sunday night game in Las Vegas two weeks ago — and it cost them a practice day in pads in preparation for the game against the Texans. On a two-game winning streak off a win on Sunday Night Football, that may have contributed to their soft effort against the Texans. Tomlin made it clear they were back in pads for practice this week — especially in preparation for their game with the Ravens in what is the most physical rivalry in the league. Nothing like a game with Baltimore to clarify expectations. As it is, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after an upset loss by double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a loss by 14 points or more points on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 21 or more points including covering the point spread in those last five circumstances — and they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. Admittedly, the offense looks like a mess right now with offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense scrutiny — but the Steelers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points. And the defense has something to prove — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or points while covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home after giving up 30 or more points. Remember that this team has a 10-4 record in their last 14 games with a healthy T.J. Watt who is locked and loaded for this game. Baltimore is just as injured as the Steelers are right now — but they are surviving their M*A*S*H unit adventures because they have enjoyed good fortune with opposing quarterbacks. After getting to play C.J. Stroud in his first professional start for Houston last month, they then got an injured Joe Burrow, backup Gardner Minshew (in a loss), and another rookie debut with the Browns having to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. The Ravens have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 12 games against not allowing more than 14 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh plays Lamar Jackson tough — besides beating the Ravens in five of their last six games against them, they have held Jackson to just a 66 Passer Rating in his games against them. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have been decided by one scoring possession — and the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ offense has been a disaster in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers series in the opening series of their first game of the season. They are scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 225.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The team is still sticking with Zach Wilson despite him only completing 52.4% of his passes this season. But the problems of this offense go much further than the disappointing former second pick in the 2021 draft. New York’s offensive line is a mess as an already shaky unit has been hit hard with injuries with left tackle Duane Brown out along with rotational guard Wes Schweitzer. Wilson has been sacked eight times — and he is not getting any help in their rushing attack behind this line that is not opening rushing lanes. Dalvin Cook has generated only 2.3 Yards-Per-Carry and Breece Hall has a mere 36 total yards from scrimmage in his last two games. The Jets have scored only 10 points in two straight games. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss at home to an AFC East rival. The Jets' defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. In their two games at home at MetLife Stadium, they held Buffalo and the Patriots to just 16 and 15 points. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City comes off a dominating performance where had the ball for 36:13 minutes while generating 31 first downs against the Bears. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 first downs with their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. They gained 456 total yards last week while outgaining Chicago by +253 net yards — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +200 or more yards. And while Kansas City has generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid is content with dialing up their rushing attack tonight against this Jets defense that has allowed 291 rushing yards in their last two games — and that will shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The Chiefs' defense has become another strength for this team as they are holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG and 280.7 YPG. They rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings — and they have not allowed more than 21 points in a game while giving up just 19 combined points in their last two contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 with an 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has the same record after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay comes into this game with momentum after their win against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory in their last game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And with that game finishing Under the Total, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The main question I had about this team coming into the season was whether they might respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love demonstrated his poise by leading an 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter last week to steal that game against New Orleans. He has been a threat with his legs — he has rushed for 74 yards this season on 14 carries with a crucial touchdown last week. Those numbers are similar to Josh Allen’s 89 rushing yards on 12 carries and Deshaun Watson’s 83 yards on 15 carriers with both mobile QBs also having one touchdown. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. Green Bay stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the points spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. LaFleur expects to get running back Aaron Jones back for this game which should help to get their running game going after not rushing for more than 95 yards in a game yet this season. The Packers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Green Bay is still dealing with some other injuries with left tackle David Bahktiari, left guard Elgton Jenkins, and linebacker De’Vondae Campbell out. They have developed some nice depth on their offensive line with players like Zach Tom able to ease into the starting left tackle position after giving up only one sack in 489 snaps last season. The Lions are still the more banged-up team — starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Their defense is without defensive linemen James Houston and Josh Paschal along with cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Detroit held the Falcons to just 183 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their last game. And while the Lions have not allowed more than 95 rushing yards this season after holding Atlanta to 44 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. The hype surrounding this team is enormous right now with them now having won 10 of their last 13 games — but remember that their most important contest during that stretch was in Week 15 last season when a victory on the road against Carolina would have given them the upper hand in controlling their playoff destiny. But they surrendered 570 total yards to the Panthers in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. Admittedly, Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when favored by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers certainly had this game circled after the Lions spoiled their opportunity to make the playoffs on the last Sunday night game of the regular season at Lambeau Field. Detroit upset them in both games last season — but Goff only completed 37 of his 60 passes (61.7%) for 361 yards in both games with the Lions averaging just 287.5 total YPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Rams (1-1) enter this game coming off a 30-23 loss at home to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) remained winless this season after their 27-24 upset loss at home against Baltimore as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bengals’ quarterback  Joe Burrow is a game-time decision as he continues to be slowed by a nagging calk injury he suffered in late July. Even if he plays, he is not close to 100% — and this leg injury is impacting his passing ability. He is 0-12 with his passes of at least 15 yards in the air downfield. He is completing only 56.9% of his passes. If he cannot go tonight, then backup Jake Browning will get the call. The former Washington Huskies quarterback is in his third year in the league and has thrown exactly one pass in a regular season game back in Week One. Cincinnati does not have much of a ground game to lean on either. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step at this point in his career. After averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he has rushed for 59 and 56 yards on 13 carries in both his games. The Bengals have only rushed for 75 and 66 yards in their first two games — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 99 yards in two straight games. They have been outrushed by 131 and 111 yards in both their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrushed by -100 or more yards in two straight contests. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home against an AFC North rival. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And in their last 10 games in September, Cincinnati has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles may be without the injured Cooper Kupp but Matthew Stafford is healthy and operating a ball-control offense behind former Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense has been on the field for 36:17 minutes per game — and that is helping to protect their young defense that is allowing only 272.5 Yards-Per-Game. That defense is certainly helped by a healthy Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Additionally, the Rams have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Los Angeles did surrender 6.89 Yards-Per-Play to the 49ers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.5 or more YPP. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh may have gutted out the win against AFC North rival on Monday after their defense scored two touchdowns — but head coach Mike Tomlin should have had an attentive audience this week after his team got outgained by -153 net yards. The offense has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. But the Steelers have faced two tough defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland who may both have top-five defenses this season. Getting to play against the Raiders should help Pickett have his best game of the season. Las Vegas is only producing pressure on the quarterback on 10.5% of their dropbacks — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 81.7% of their passes. The Steelers defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two straight contests. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week. After playing their first two games at home, they go on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games after a two-game home stand with three covers in their last four games under those circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog of up to three points. Las Vegas opened their season by beating a now 0-3 Denver team that just gave up 70 points this afternoon — but they only scored 17 points in the win. The Raiders may have been exposed last week against the Bills — and a bounce back may not be in the cards as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a loss by 21 or more points. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Is second-year general manager Dave Ziegler simply continuing the mismanagement of talent evaluation that was endemic in the Jon Gruden residency in Vegas with general manager Mike Mayock (plucked away from the television booth)? Ziegler has continued an approach in the NFL draft that appears to be based on only watching nationally televised games in the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time windows. Signing linebacker Chandler Jones as a free agent last season seemed ill-advised — and it has been a disaster with the 33-year-old now away from the team due to personal issues. Mayock buried this roster through years of over-drafting Clemson and Alabama players that were busts on and off the field. And this team is favored? The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won nine of their last 12 games with T.J. Watt healthy and on the field. They have also won four of their five prime-time games with Pickett at quarterback. The Raiders have lost all three of their prime-time games under head coach Josh McDaniels. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). THE SITUATION: New England (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 24-17 loss at home to Miami on Sunday night as a 1-point underdog. New York (1-1) comes off a 30-10 loss at Dallas as an 8-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England will be playing with desperation this afternoon as they look to avoid starting the season 0-3 which will all but ruin their postseason aspirations — especially with two of the losses being against divisional rivals. It is fashionable to dump on head coach Bill Belichick because he has not been as successful as Tom Brady after their split in 2020 — but his teams have not gone worse than 7-9 in the three seasons since (despite being ravaged with roster attrition in that 2020 COVID season). The Patriots reached the playoffs in the 2021 season even with a rookie at quarterback — an achievement that would deserve Coach of the Year accolades if the individual was an “offensive” coach who once sat at the lunch table with Sean McVay. Belichick can still coach — he just has a different mentality that the en vogue methods of the young crop of offensive play-caller/head coaches. The defensive mentality coming from Belichick raises the floor of minimum expectations (like Mike Tomlin) — and that is why his teams have not bottomed out like McVay’s Rams did last season. So let’s keep some perspective: the Patriots lost by one scoring possession to both the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl (Philadelphia) and an AFC playoff team last week. This remains a team that outscored their opponents last season despite an 8-9 record. Belichick’s Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. They were outgained by -101 net yards last week with the Dolphins averaging 6.48 Yards-Per-Play — but New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 6 or more YPP. The Patriots ranked eighth in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 322.0 YPG - and they are only giving up 320 YPG this season despite playing the potent Eagles and Dolphins offenses. The other side of the ball is in much better hands under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien after the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge coordinator experiments of last season. Quarterback Mac Jones has a better relationship with O’Brien — and he does lead the NFL in completions this season. He gives the Patriots a big edge this afternoon when compared to the Jets’ Zach Wilson. The third-year pro has been eaten alive by Belichick’s defenses in his career — in his four games starting against New England, Wilson has posted a 50.8 Passer Rating with only two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Jets lost all four games while scoring less than 10 PPG. This is a volatile situation with Wilson their best option under center after the Aaron Rodgers injury — and further failures against the dreaded Patriots today may quickly pick the scab of his unpopularity inside the locker room and with the Jets’ fans. In his 23 career starts, Wilson has 22 interceptions — and he is last in the NFL so far this season in Passer Rating and completion percentage. In theory, New York has a robust rushing attack to help him out — but they only ran for 64 yards last week against the Cowboys. The Jets’ offensive line is a mess with the underachieving Mekhi Bechton at right tackle — and now left tackle Duane Brown is out for this game with a shoulder and hip issues. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: With Tropical Rainstorm Ophelia impacting the Meadowlands, rain and wind are expected for this game. The last time the Patriots started 0-3 was in 2000 — so the Belichick approach of being patient and waiting for the other guy to start making mistakes will likely be the prudent approach under these weather conditions. As it is, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by seven points or less — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a home underdog of seven points or less. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 35-33 upset loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-0) has won their first two games after their 24-17 win at New England as a 1-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Denver has not covered the point spread yet under new head coach Sean Payton — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They did average 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Quarterback Russell Wilson is getting sacked once in every eight dropbacks. With the challenge of playing in the South Beach heat against this potent Dolphins offense, look for Payton to try to shorten this game with his rushing attack behind running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. The defense will be without Justin Simmons and Frank Harris this afternoon, but this remains a good group that is allowing only 324.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Denver ranked seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 320.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total. The Broncos have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a road dog. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Miami has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Toal at home after beating an AFC East rival on the road in their last game. And while they outgained the Patriots by +101 net yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 17 games at Hard Rock Stadium. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by seven or fewer points. Additionally, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle who is out with a concussion. Without his deep threat, the dynamo of the offense changes — and Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can either double-team Tyreek Hill or rely on shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain II to cover him.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams — and expecting the 49ers to win by more than 10 points is probably too much to ask. New York certainly qualifies as an ugly underdog after the humiliating 40-0 loss on national television to the Cowboys — and then they continued to look terrible in the first half against the woeful Cardinals by going into the locker room trailing by a 20-0 score. But the Giants deserve credit for picking themselves off the mat by outscoring Arizona by a 31-7 score in the second half to secure the victory. Head coach Brian Daboll took over the play-calling of the offense in the second half — and that unit clearly got energized by that decision. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed 26 of 37 passes for 321 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards with another touchdown. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Can the team can add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. A healthier wide receiver room will help with playmakers to help Jones in the passing game — and they traded for Darren Waller from Las Vegas to give him a viable number-one target. He led the team in targets last week while catching six balls for 76 yards. New York drafted Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee in the third round in the draft last spring — and Daboll got him going in the second half last week with the deep threat catching two balls for 89 yards. Going inside the numbers of that Cowboys debacle, the Giants started well by driving down the field for a field goal opportunity. But after that kick got blocked and returned for a special teams touchdown for Dallas — and then Jones threw a pick-six later in the first quarter — the momentum in that game became overwhelming for the Cowboys who could then pin their ears back and rush the passer to protect their big lead (in rainy weather). There are not many NFL teams who were not going to get blown out after such an auspicious start against this Dallas team. And New York was still hungover from that bad game traveling out west to play a bad Cardinals team. But I expect their best game of the season in a situation where no one expects them to compete. I like that they stayed out west this week to prepare for this game. The defense is playing well — they are only allowing 322 YPG. Despite getting outscored and outgained last year, only three of their regular season losses were by double-digits. They have not been given any favors regarding injuries with running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari all out for this game. But backup running back Matt Breida is a veteran who is a capable backup. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Expect New York to get off to a better start in this one after two straight disastrous first halves — they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games. The Giants averaged 8.28 Yards-Per-Play last week (even with the Barkley injury) — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after generating at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times. San Francisco may be a bit overvalued coming into this third game. They easily beat a Pittsburgh team that is experiencing major issues on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams are playing better than expected this season, it is not a good sign for the 49ers that they were outgained by that Los Angeles team by 21 net yards. The Niners are benefitting from winning the turnover battle in their first two games with a +3 net turnover margin — and that is something Daboll will preach to his team to not play into. The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 62 home games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This situation is similar to when the Giants played in Dallas on a short week on Thanksgiving as a 10-point underdog — and they covered the point spread in a 28-20 loss in that game. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a Thursday — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by the 49ers last week — but head coach Mike Tomlin should rally his troops in this divisional rivalry game tonight despite injuries to defensive end Cam Hayward and wide receiver Dionte Johnson. The Steelers closed last year strong by winning five of their last seven games — and the reports out of training camp were that they were one of the sharpest teams in the preseason — so that flat effort last week was surprising (and perhaps a statement as to how good the Niners are). Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points. Second-year Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions last week which was out of character for him after he only threw one interception in his last eight starts last season. While he will miss Johnson as one of his targets, he still has second-year wideout George Pickens who is poised for a breakout season. Don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh deploys two tight ends frequently in this game with rookie Darnell Washington getting plenty of snaps — he is a massive 6’7 target who was underutilized in the passing game at Georgia. The Steelers will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group is much better with a healthy T.J. Watt — they had an 8-2 record when he was healthy last season. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland was impressive at home against a Bengals team that looked rusty on offense after Joe Burrow missed most of the preseason with a calf injury. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped his juice which was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They did outgain the Bengals by +158 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. And in their last 15 games as the favorite, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 19 straight games at home at Heinz Field against the Browns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. The Dolphins have also played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as an underdog. Miami generated 536 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. And while they overcame a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week. What is so frustrating about Staley is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. But New England has their own injury issues on the offensive line with starters Trent Brown and Cole Strange along with rookie Sidy Cow all questionable and free agent tackle Riley Reiff on the four-week injured list. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and New England has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 24-3 loss at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (1-0) won their first game of the new season with their 25-9 victory against Houston as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The annual Baltimore Ravens injury-fest is already in full swing this season — this group is a M*A*S*H unit in just the second week of the season in such a way that makes an already good situation great. On offense, the Ravens' star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and their rock-solid center Tyler Linderbaum are out this week along with top running back J.K. Dobbins who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. On defense, star free safety Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury, and their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out with a foot injury. Those are five starters gone for this divisional rivalry game — including two on the offensive line and two in the secondary against Joe Burrow and company — for a team that got outgained by the woeful Texans last week. The offensive line was already facing the challenge of replacing left guard Ben Powers who left in the offseason. And this is an offense in transition under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — they gained only 265 total yards against Houston. Lamar Jackson’s contract dispute was finally settled in the offseason — but the removal of previous OC Greg Roman seems to suggest that Jackson and the organization want to rely on Jackson’s arm more than his legs. Even if Jackson can be a successful gunslinger at this level, he may not have the offensive line this afternoon to execute that vision. As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. They go on the road for the first time this season having failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati was sluggish in the rain last week with the offense only gaining 142 total yards. Being on the field for only 24:10 minutes did not help — but Burrow was rusty after missing most of the preseason with a calf injury. The Browns' defense is very good this season — so playing them in bad weather when already being out of synch was far from optimal. But now this group wants to avoid another 0-2 start like last season — although the Bengals did eventually rebound to reach the AFC Championship Game. Another week of practice should have Burrow back in the groove — he competed 67% of his passes in Week Two last year despite being on the road against the stout Dallas defense. Cincinnati has covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Burrow loves playing against the Ravens — with his perfect 3-0 record at home against Baltimore, he has averaged 316 passing Yards-Per-Game with seven touchdown passes and a Passer Rating go 110. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against AFC rivals — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against the AFC North. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. This looks like a heavy pass script coming from head coach Kevin O’Connell who calls the plays. Don’t be surprised if Kirk Cousins throws 50 passes tonight against a depleted Eagles secondary that is missing cornerback James Bradbury to the concussion protocol and safety Reed Blankenship to a rib injury. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Vikings have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go on the road on the short week where they have played 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin while defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable. The Eagles gave up 382 total yards to the Patriots last week. But Philadelphia should play better on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Minnesota defense was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last season with the Eagles winning at home by a  24-7 score on September 19th. That final score was misleading as the Vikings got inside the Philadelphia 27-yard line four times — and then twice inside their 10-yard line — but failed to score a single point on those four drives. If Minnesota scores more from those drives, the game script changes with Philly likely scoring in the 30s. Expect a higher-scoring game in this rematch. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) finished 7-10 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo looks poised to lean on their running game more this season with the acquisition of running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. The Bills have lacked the ability to sustain a four-minute offense when they need to protect a lead in the fourth quarter. With Harris coming over from New England and Murray being signed from Denver, Buffalo now has two bigger running backs to use in a power running game. Look for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to attempt to establish a power-rushing attack behind their solid offensive line against the stout Jets defense. The Bills' defense should be outstanding once again this season. They ranked second in the NFL by allowing only 17.9 Points-Per-Game last season. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Additionally, the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. Aaron Rodgers is now under center — but I am not expecting him to light up the scoreboard after not getting much playing time in the preseason. The Jets are shaky with their offensive line — especially at right tackle with Mekhi Becton. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the first half of the season.   The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in September. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more than important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys will lean on their outstanding defense ranked fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when favored. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Giants’ running back has scored only three touchdowns in the eight games that he has played against the Cowboys. While most of the attention to New York in the second seasons under head coach Brian Daboll goes to Daniel Jones and the potential (or limitations) of their offense), I expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the injured Cowboys offensive line and Prescott. New York has played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. The Giants have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) begins the post-Aaron Rodgers era coming off an 8-9 season. Chicago (0-0) looks to improve on their 3-14 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jordan Love era begins for the Packers as he makes his second career start this afternoon. He is probably not going to continue the outstanding legacy that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have established with this organization in the last three decades — Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not grow on trees. But while I think he can develop into a solid NFL quarterback, he probably still needs some time to develop after only taking 157 snaps in his three seasons in the NFL. Even if head coach Matt LaFleur wanted to “Let Love Cook” in this opening game, injuries at wide receiver would have probably changed that plan. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is out with a hamstring injury and second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs is questionable with a hamstring. The remaining depth chart in the wide receiver room are rookies. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the running game this afternoon. I have a suspicion that an aggressive rushing attack is what LaFleur would have preferred anyways even with Rodgers as his quarterback the last few seasons. The Bears ranked second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Chicago certainly wants to pass the ball more after ranking last in the league by averaging only 130.5 passing YPG last season. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore when they traded down in the draft with Carolina gives third-year quarterback Justin Fields the number one wide receiver he has lacked. But I do not expect second-year head coach Matt Eberflus to abandon his defensive roots in game-planning for this contest. The Bears defense dealt with several injuries in the preseason so cohesion is a concern. Look for Chicago to focus on their ground game with Khalil Herbert and free agent signee D’Onta Foreman. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Toal in the opening two weeks of the season.  Don’t be surprised if this game is over by 7 PM ET/4 PM PT despite the late start — both teams are going to run the ball and burn clock. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lions were a reliable underdog against the spread last year. But now the hype train for the Detroit Lions has not been this loud in decades — and while they should contend for the NFC North title, I do not think the available evidence matches the raised expectations for this franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991. I’m simply not impressed with their final Sunday night victory in Lambeau Field against Green Bay that thwarted the Packers' playoff aspirations despite their playoff hopes being eliminated earlier in the day. I think it is one of the easiest things to do in competitive events to find motivation to screw your rivals — especially when absolved from the pressure of failing to meet expectations. Good for the Lions that day! But the seeds of their downfall may have been exposed even in that game (more on that in my Final Take). And how impressive was that victory against the Packers, exactly? If the Aaron Rodgers Truthers who now drive the NY Jets Hype Train and the Rodgers Haters have one thing in common, it is this: that Green Bay team last season was a mess. Either Rodgers' bad season was a result of his playing with a broken hand or the product of Father Time’s impact on his skill set — but he was bad. There also is a narrative that the Lions' defense improved in the second half of the season. First of all, Detroit’s defense was playing at a historically bad rate through October when each of their opponents scored at least 24 points — so better numbers in the second half may have simply been the law of averages kicking in (especially when four games against Chicago and the broken Packers appear on the docket). Secondly, the most important game of the Lions' entire season was in Week 15 when they played at Carolina with control of their playoff fate on the line with a 7-7 record. In that game against the Sam Darnold-led Panthers under interim head coach Steve Wilks, Detroit lost by a 37-23 score with the “improved” Lions defense surrendering 570 total yards. Darnold looked like he was back at USC throwing against the RichRod Arizona defense while the Panthers rushed for 320 yards (not a typo). Detroit finished the season last in the NFL in yardage allowed — ranking 29th in run defense and 30th in pass defense. They did upgrade that unit in the offseason — but free-agent cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is out tonight with a knee injury. The hope is that the run defense will improve because of their rookie class — but I’m not sure those rookies suddenly make this group even middle of the road. Perhaps the dynamic Detroit offense will keep them competitive tonight? Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. With tight end T.J. Hockensen traded to Minnesota and replaced by a rookie and second-year wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, who is Goff’s (reliable) second option in the passing game? The Lions remain a team that got outgained in yardage last season. Regarding Kansas City, I am assuming that tight end Travis Kelce will not play (although even better if he does — I give it a one out of three chance that he can go despite his bruised knee). The triumph of this Chiefs team last season was predicated on Patrick Mahomes' development as a quarterback in taking what the defense gave him in his first season playing without Tyreke Hill. The mission this offseason has been to nurture the development of wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice into the passing attack to better complement Kelce. Even if Kelce does not play, head coach Andy Reid will scheme players open against the Lions defense Darnold picked apart last December — and Mahomes has more than demonstrated the discipline to simply find open receivers. And don’t be surprised if Reid’s game plan is to simply run over this porous Lions defensive line that the Panthers mauled with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. On defense, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Mahomes has won all five of his home openers in his career with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

FINAL TAKE: Lions head coach Dan Campbell has been notoriously aggressive with his play-calling in his first two seasons. Detroit leads the NFL in fourth down attempts during his tenure — and they have successfully converted seven of their eight fake punts in his tenure. They had the luxury of being aggressive in that Sunday night game against the Packers with nothing on the line for them except the joy of playing the role of the spoiler. Now expectations have arrived for this team — and Campbell — and that aggressiveness can quickly become reckless (ask LA Chargers fans with Brandon Staley). I recall an ill-advised fourth down attempt inside the Lions’ 30-yard line in his rookie season in the salad days when he was trying to avoid a winless season. A mistake like that at Arrowhead Stadium against Mahomes would be Game (and point spread cover) Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): I think Philadelphia is a good but not great team. I just cannot overcome their soft schedule and the fortunate turn of events they have enjoyed all season. The fact that their victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game represents the best win on their resume — despite San Francisco lacking a player who could throw a credible forward pass in the second half of that game. Or was their mid-October victory against Dallas with Cooper Rush under center for the injured Dak Prescott? Trevor Lawrence was probably the best quarterback they beat all year — but that was on the first Sunday in October before the second-year pro blossomed in the second half of the season. Or was the best QB they beat Aaron Rodgers and a Packers’ team that lost at home to Detroit the final Sunday night of the regular season to fail to make the playoffs? It was not Daniel Jones who they beat in the opening round of the playoffs. Philly beat the Giants three times and they beat Minnesota — and that exhausts the list of their six wins against teams who made the playoffs. I know the Eagles have a great offensive line — so do the Lions. I know there are some sweet run blocks against the Niners' good defensive line from the NFC Championship Game — but I am not going to get too excited about those plays considering the fading morale of that 49ers team. By the way, Philly only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against San Francisco. And despite their improved run defense after acquiring Ndamukong Sun and Linvale Joseph in mid-November, they still ranked 15th against the run in the second half of the season according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. I simply think the Eagles are a year away from learning how to beat great teams. I like Jalen Hurts — but I don’t love him yet to outduel elite quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. I don’t think head coach Nick Sirianni is ready to outwit Hall of Fame coaches on the other side of the field. In some ways, getting gifted the fortunate luck of Brock Purdy’s elbow injury early in that game may have given this team a false sense of confidence. True confidence would come from beating an outstanding team in the fourth quarter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they scored 69 points in their two playoff games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. This is Philly’s first road game since December 24th. The Eagles have played four straight Unders in a row while outgaining their two playoff opponents by at least +105 net yards. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 or more yards. Kansas City is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have the best quarterback in the league Patrick Mahomes. They have a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for this game — and his teams have covered the point spread in 20 of their 33 games in his career when he has two more weeks to prepare. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of three wide receivers that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. This is a battle-tested team that won their two playoff games by ten combined points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games at home by seven points or less. Mahomes has passed the test he faced this season if he could still maintain his productivity without Tyreek Hill. He has improved in taking what the defense gives him in the passing game. The Chiefs also have a running back in rookie Isaih Pacheco who can burn defenses that do not put enough players in the box. Since Week 10, Pacheco’s 728 rushing yards (before the AFC Championship Game) were the third most in the NFL. And the Kansas City defense is better than their season-long statistics suggest as this group continues to improve, as usual, under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Led by Chris Jones, the Chiefs sacked Joe Burrow five times. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored only 23 points against the Bengals — but the game script led that to be a lower-scoring game with Kansas City exposing a battered Cincinnati offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked five times in that game — and the Bengals ran for just 71 yards on 17 carries on that game. The Chiefs held Cincinnati to just 309 total yards — but they will face a much stiffer challenge against this Eagles team that probably has the best offensive line in the NFL. The Kansas City offense went into that game with Patrick Mahomes limited with his mobility given the right ankle injury he suffered the previous week against Jacksonville. To then compound matters, the Chiefs lost three wide receivers to in-game injuries that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Frankly, I completely believe that the AFC Championship Game goes Over the Total if even one of those receivers was still available to complement Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the passing game in the fourth quarter of that game. Not only does KC probably score another three to seven points, but the Bengals then are pressured to play catch-up — and the game script changes. The Chiefs should at least get to their 28.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average against the Eagles — and they scored 32.8 PPG while generating 430.2 Yards-Per-Game in their nine games away from home. Kansas City has played three straight Unders — but they have then played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of those three wideouts. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 6 straight Overs after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been effective in his two playoff games since returning from his shoulder injury — and now he gets another two weeks to rest and recuperate for this contest. He will have the green light to run the ball now with everything at stake in this final game of the season. Philadelphia scores 28.7 PPG — and in their eight games away from home, that mark rises to 29.4 PPG and 398.3 total YPG. The Eagles’ elite offensive line should be able to create running lanes to jettison the Philly ground game — they lead the NFL with their rushing attack using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs allow 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents to generate 5.1 YPC but teams too often abandon their running game because they are trailing Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. The Eagles will not abandon their running game so hastily — and they should continue to move the football. And while Philadelphia has not allowed more than 16 points in three straight games, that speaks more to getting to play the New York Giants twice in a row (once with a backup quarterback) before getting the Niners last week who lacked a quarterback who could reliably throw a forward pass in the second half of that game. Philadelphia has allowed 32 or more points four times this season — and the best quarterback they have played against this season was either Jared Goff in Week One, Trevor Lawrence in early October (before his big step in growth after Thanksgiving) or the smirking Aaron Rodgers in November. OK, I neglected to consider Dak Prescott in that NFC East rematch in December — and Dallas scored 40 points in that game. Choose your fighter … none are Mahomes. This is a new challenge. The Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.


FINAL TAKE: After two lower-scoring games in the last two Super Bowls, I am expecting this contest to see a combined score of at least 50 points. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. So has Andy Reid — and my investment in the Chiefs tonight is ultimately my endorsement of him. The loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last year was the defining moment of Kansas City’s season — and the entire offseason was his preparation for this moment (much more than their earlier meeting on December 4th). The Chiefs have now lost three games in a row to Cincinnati — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games under Reid when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Reid’s teams in his career have also covered the point spread in 36 of their 56 opportunities for revenge. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Additionally, I think the Mahomes injury puts the onus on his teammates to step up and play championship-level football to pick him up. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has yet to register a sack in his career in the playoffs — and while some of that is due to double teams (which frees up his partner on the line, Frank Clark), he needs to have a big game now. All this “Burrowhead Stadium” talk this week should have the Chiefs very chippy. We should not underestimate the home-field advantage Kansas City will enjoy tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. While Cincinnati has won the last three meetings between these teams in the last 13 months, only one of those games was played in KC. I love Joe Burrow — I totally get it — and I take a back seat to no one in my appreciation for this Bengals defense under Anarumo. However, I do wonder if this team is primed for a letdown after their emotional upset victory in Buffalo last week after feeling disrespected by the NFL for being snubbed from having that game played on a neutral field. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. Furthermore, the Bengals caught a break last week with the snowy conditions that slowed down the Bills' pass rush. Cincinnati still has three starting offensive linemen out today — that narrative has seemed to completely disappeared (and I get that losing Jonah Williams may be addition by subtraction). While the Mahomes injury is significant, the state of Burrow’s offensive line remains a bit factor as well. Finally, it gnaws at me that the Bengals have been outgained by -20.5 net Yards-Per-Game in their ten games on the road. And despite winning their last three games, they have been outgained by -57.3 net YPG in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has won three in a row against the Chiefs since Week 17 of last season — but all three games were decided by a field goal with all three contests being nip-and-tuck. Can the Bengals win yet a fourth coin flip in a row? Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. I go back to Andy Reid: beating Cincinnati was the central question he had to answer in the offseason. I think he gets it done. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expected a higher-scoring game between the Cowboys and 49ers — but the game script progressed in a way that allowed head coach Kyle Shanahan to lean on his running game and not ask rookie quarterback Brock Purdy to do too much. The Niners ran the ball in 21 of their 31 plays in the second half. Dak Prescott’s two interceptions that ended likely ended Cowboys’ scoring drives played a big role in keeping that score low and not putting pressure on San Francisco to respond with a score of their own. After tying the score at 6-6 late in the second quarter, the 49ers never trailed the rest of the game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. And while the Niners have won the turnover battle in 11 straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after generating a +1 or better turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Brock Purdy continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. While the Niners were able to frustrate a Dallas offense with the inconsistent Prescott playing poorly, they also were able to focus their defensive energies on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb since the Cowboys lack a credible second receiving threat. The Eagles have two legitimate number-one options in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The 49ers are vulnerable against quality vertical passing attacks. They allowed 15 pass plays of more than 20 bar yards this season, tied for the 3rd most in the NFL. Cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward have both been burned by deep balls this season — Ward, in particular, struggled against Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf who has a similar physical profile to Philly’s Brown. The Eagles also deploy plenty of play-action passes — and the 49ers' defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 96 of 135 passes (71.1%) from play-action for 1077 yards, 7.98 yards-per-attempt, nine touchdowns, and a Passer Rating of 101.4. In the final week of the regular season, Las Vegas’ Jarrett Stidham torched the Niners secondary by completing 23 of 34 passes for 365 yards, three touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 108.1. The 49ers allowed eight of their 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards in the air to come from play-action — and four of Stidham’s eight explosive completions against them came from play-action. The Eagles will likely lift much from the Raiders’ offensive game plan earlier this month. Jalen Hurts showed few ill effects from his separated shoulder injury from last month against the Giants — he completed 16 of 24 passes for 154 with two touchdown passes while rushing for 34 yards and another touchdown. After taking a 28-0 halftime lead, there was no reason for Philly to push Hurts in the second half as they coasted to victory. The Eagles have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They held the Giants to just 227 total yards — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs at home after winning two games in a row. And while they held the Giants to only 23 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on grass. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys play this game under terrible circumstances. First, they have 2 1/2 fewer days to recover and prepare for this contest when compared to the 49ers who played the early game last Saturday. When facing a physical 49ers team on both sides of the ball, this is a significant problem. Second, this will be Dallas’ fourth straight game on the road — and all that travel tends to finally take its toll. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a short week after appearing on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have been resilient off losses — but they remain inconsistent. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Dak Prescott embodies this inconsistency. While he comes off a fantastic effort on Monday, he still has thrown 15 interceptions this season with 3.8 % of his pass attempts getting picked off. Dallas has also been a much better team at home where they have an 8-1 record this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 5-4 away from home while scoring -2.4 fewer PPG and only owning a +2 net turnover margin. Dallas has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Cowboys' splits have been even more pronounced when they are playing on grass where they are just 2-4 with an average losing margin of -1.2 PPG and a -16.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark. On the other hand, San Francisco is 11-3 when playing on grass (including on their home field at Levi’s Stadium) with a +12.6 net PPG clip and a +72.8 net YPG mark. They hold their opponents to just 296.6 YPG when playing on grass which results in just 15.1 PPG. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when favored. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals only gained 234 total yards last week against the Ravens — their 98-yard fumble recovery returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter made the winning difference in that game. Cincinnati lost left tackle Jonah Williams to a knee injury in that game — with La’el Collins and Alex Cappa also dealing with injuries, the Bengals are down three starters on their offensive line which is slowing down this offense. The Bengals only gained 257 total yards the previous week against Baltimore — and they managed only 237 total yards four games ago in their 34-23 win at Tampa Bay. Four of Cincinnati’s last five games have not seen more than 43 combined points scored. While Joe Burrow gets most of the headlines, the Bengals sport an underrated defense that has not allowed more than 18 points in three straight games and five of their last seven contests. The Under is 11-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The injuries on the offensive line are impacting the Bengals' rushing attack. After rushing for only 55 yards against the Ravens last week, they have not gained more than 73 rushing yards in four straight games. The Under is 17-6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 24 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in three or more games in a row. The Bengals go on the road where the Under is 25-10-3 in their last 38 games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bengals have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have played two straight games where 58 or more combined points were scored, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. The Bills outgained the Dolphins last week by 192 net yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by 100 or more yards. And while they held Miami to just 42 rushing yards, Buffalo has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. The Bills only allow 18.6 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 260.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents — and the Under is 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games against fellow AFC rivals. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week. Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York’s offense was clicking last week behind a confident Daniel Jones who completed 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones also ran for 78 additional yards operating head coach Brian Daboll’s offense that helped Josh Allen become a star. Jones will be fully unleashed in this game with the Giants playing with house money. New York should be able to move the ball with Jones offering an additional threat with his legs. The Eagles allowed 499 rushing yards from quarterbacks with 307 of those yards coming from scrambles — and both of those marks are the second-most in the NFL. Running back Saquon Barkley should be relatively rested for this contest as well after only running the ball nine times last week (for 53 yards with two touchdowns). New York has averaged 163 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and the Eagles are vulnerable against the run despite their late-season free-agent pickups of defensive tackles Ndamukong Sun and Lineal Joseph. Their last five opponents have all rushed for at least 115 yards — and those five teams averaged 130.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game against them. This Daboll offense leads the NFL in Red Zone efficiency according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they present a balanced attack inside the opponent’s 20-yard line by ranking 1st with the pass and 3rd with the run according to the DVOA numbers. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last game. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point-spread win. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia hosts this game where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC East — and the Over is 5-2-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th. Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Never in doubt(!) for those of us that had the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville trailed by a 27-0 score in the second quarter before scoring a crucial late touchdown to go into halftime trailing by 20 points. They then got plenty of help from the Chargers coaching staff that did not take advantage of burning time off the clock by running the football — allowing the Jags to methodically rally to take the lead and win this game. Great win for head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence — but I am worried about the emotional letdown for this team after pulling off this near-miracle comeback. I am also worried about a few other aspects for Jacksonville in this step-up in competition. For starters, only two of the six teams they have played during their current winning streak made the playoffs — the Chargers and Dallas. They benefitted from playing against backup quarterbacks in their victories against the New York Jets and two wins against Tennessee. But remember that they needed a late defensive touchdown to beat Joshua Dobbs and the Titans to clinch their spot in the playoffs two weeks ago despite playing at home in that game. They only scored seven first-half points in that game as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Lawrence’s propensity to make mistakes and commit turnovers remains a significant issue as well despite his overcoming those four first-half interceptions last week. He has accounted for 21 turnovers this year from 12 interceptions and another nine fumbles. The Jaguars upset the Chargers despite a -5 net turnover margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while Lawrence passed for 288 yards last week, Jacksonville is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 250 or more yards in the air in their last game. Now Lawrence goes on the road where he has led the Jags to victory in just four of his 17 career road starts. The Jaguars were 4-6 on the road this season — and they were outscored by -24.9 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games as an underdog this season. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher including four of their last five games on the road. Now here comes the Chiefs with head coach Andy Reid’s teams covering the point spread in 20 of his 33 games when coaching with two more weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. Patrick Mahomes faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in the league in pass defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home at Arrowhead Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City beat Jacksonville at home earlier this season by a 27-17 score on November 13th — but after racing out to a 20-0 lead before letting up and letting the Jags back in that game, they are not likely to take this team lightly. The Jaguars are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Kansas City. The Chiefs reach their fifth straight AFC Championship Game with the win — their decisive edge in playoff experience should lead them to a double-digit win. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Round Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. Perhaps Jensen will help with the ground game for Tampa Bay's offense that has only averaged 77 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — but considering that their running backs are last in the league averaging 1.2 yards-after-contact, the problem is not with opening up holes at the line of scrimmage. If the Buccaneers lose tonight, they will go down with the ball in Brady’s hands. He is averaging 44 pass attempts per game — and we should not be surprised if he throws the ball at least 50 times tonight. A pass-heavy play script is a good recipe for the Over — especially when the number is below 50. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Buccaneers have allowed their last three opponents to average 369.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is +44.7 net YPG above their season average. That regressing unit presents a welcome opportunity for a Cowboys team that comes off an embarrassing loss where they only put up 182 total yards despite Dak Prescott playing for most of that game. Frankly, it was one of the worst efforts in his career as he completed just 14 of 37 passes for only 128 yards against the Eagles last week. Dallas has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Prescott missed time earlier in the season due to injury so tonight will be just the third time he has been under center following a game where he was their starting quarterback in a losing effort. The Cowboys scored 40 points in both of those previous contests — and Prescott has completed a combined 49 passes from 61 attempts for an 80.3% completion percentage for 623 passing yards, five touchdown passes, and only one interception. He has added 57 rushing yards in those two games as well. Furthermore, Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Prescott leads an offense that leads the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate — they have reached the end zone in 40 of their 54 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Cowboys have played 7 of their 8 games this season Over the Total when the Total was set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over their Total against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening week game between these two teams in which Tampa Bay won by a 19-3 score in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s teams have played 10 of their 12 games on the road Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Head coach Todd Bowles' teams have played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog getting up to three points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in six straight games after their 11-point loss in Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 36-13-2 in their last 51 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. The Ravens have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Cincinnati has seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. They only managed 55 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow. On the other side of the ball, the Cincinnati defense remains underrated. They hold their guests to just 309.4 total YPG when playing at home which translates into 18.0 PPG. The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Under is also 21-7-2 in their last 29 games in January — and they have played 4 straight Unders. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 straight Unders in the playoffs. The Under is also 12-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 16 games against AFC opponents — and the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). THE SITUATION: New York (9-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-16 loss at Philadelphia as a 17-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 29-13 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings had played six straight games with at least 49 combined points scored before their victory against the Bears in the final week of the regular season. That streak started after Minnesota only scored a field goal in their flat 40-3 loss at home to Dallas. That game came after their 33-30 barn-burning victory at Buffalo the previous week. The Vikings cannot stop anyone — but the brilliance of wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the veteran competency of quarterback Kirk Cousins usually results in higher-scoring games for this team. Minnesota has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win. Cousins completed 17 of 20 passes for 225 yards before making way for Nick Mullens who added another 116 passing yards. The Vikings gained 482 total yards against Chicago last week — and they have played 6 of their alert 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings’ defense has surrendered 29.6 Points-Per-Game in their last five games even after the Bears only put up 13 points against them. Their defense ranks 28th in the league in weighted DVOA Defense using the metrics at Football Outsiders that privilege the most recent performances. Minnesota returns home where they are scoring 27.0 PPG — but they are allowing their guests to generate 393.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.2 PPG. The Vikings have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total including seven of their last eight home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 24 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, the Vikings have played 17 of these games Over the Total. New York had scored 20 points in six straight games before only scoring 16 points last week against the Eagles in a game where head coach Brian Daboll rested many of his key starters including quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants' defense has allowed six of their last eight opponents to score at least 20 points with the two exceptions being the anemic offenses of Indianapolis and Washington. The Over is 4-1-1 in New York’s last 6 games after a point spread win — and the Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. New York is generating 374.3 YPG in their last three games while ranking 7th in weighted Offensive DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Giants also lead the NFL in Red Zone DVOA Offense — and they will be going against a Vikings’ defense that ranks 23rd in the league in Red Zone DVOA Defense so their drives should result in more touchdowns than field goals if those trends hold up. Minnesota allows their opponents to complete 66.1% of their passes — and New York has played 4 straight Overs in the second half of the season against teams who allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes. And while the Vikings score 24.9 PPG, the Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has led Minnesota to eight game-winning touchdowns this season — but Daniel Jones is responsible for five game-winning drives himself in his breakout season under Daboll’s direction. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night. Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville experienced a character-building victory last week by relying on their defense to pull out a “must-have” game against a tenacious Titans team. We had Tennessee last week so it was expected that Mike Vrabel’s team would impose their will on the Jaguars in a low-scoring contest behind a rested Derrick Henry — but Jacksonville forced a late strip-sack on the Titans’ Joshua Dobbs that Josh Allen scooped up and raced into the end zone for the winning score. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after defeating an AFC South rival in their last game. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars are developing a formidable home-field advantage at TIAA Bank Field where they have won five of their seven games this season while holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. They were neglected an eighth home game this season with their annual trip to London — but they come into this game on a four-game home winning streak which includes victories against playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Lawrence does appear to have taken the next step in his development into one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. In his first eight starts this season, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 1840 yards and a 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 84.0. In his last nine starts, the former number one pick in the NFL draft completed 69.7% of his passes for 2273 yards and a 7.4 YPA with 15 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 104.6 that leads the league during that span. He should get plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne who averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry en route to his 1125 rushing yards this season. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in Run Defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They allow 5.6 YPC on the road which has resulted in home teams generating 156 rushing YPG. James Robinson torched this Chargers' defense for 120 yards in their first meeting on September 25th. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley loves his two-high safety shell looks — and that scheme worked when he was the defensive coordinator with the Rams two years ago. But without Aaron Donald patrolling the middle of the line of scrimmage, his Chargers’ defense has been mauled by opposing rushing attacks in his two seasons as their head coach. While the run defense improved in the second half of the season, Los Angeles has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 371 yards — throwing water on the narrative that getting Joey Bosa back elevated their ability to stop the run. The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Los Angeles has scored 59 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in two games in a row. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing to a divisional rival by seven points or less. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. It should be noted that the Chargers played a weak schedule down the stretch that included Tennessee (in the game where Ryan Tannehill got injured), Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and then the Broncos — all teams that did not make the playoffs. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were 8-5 with a healthy Williams while scoring more than 24 PPG and averaging 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they were 2-2 without him while scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like the vibes with this Chargers team with Staley leading the way — and that dynamic is only made worse after contradicting the logic of not playing starters in the preseason by asking his starters to play last week. Now Williams is injured, the team is traveling east, and Sean Payton is lurking to take over this group. Los Angeles only beat one of the six teams on their schedule that made the playoffs — and that was the 7th-seed Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville has a 3-3 record against playoff teams— and they are in a much better position with a Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson steering the ship. Los Angeles will have the extra motivation to avenge their 38-10 loss at home to the Jaguars on September 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss by 21 or more points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak to make the playoffs with their 19-16 win in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 38-13 victory against Arizona as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 255 yards in their victory last week. The Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. San Francisco has the best defensive unit in the NFL when using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — they rank 2nd in the league Run Defense and 5th against the Pass according to those DVOA analytics. They allow only 16.3 Points-Per-Game — and they limit their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 303.8 Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. In their two games against the Seahawks this season, they held Seattle to only 20 combined points with the lone touchdown they surrendered taking place in garbage time in the second game between these teams in Seattle. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy completed 15 of his 20 passes for 178 yards last week against the Cardinals — but the 49ers offense only gained just 311 yards against them. The Niners only generated 142 net passing yards after accounting for lost yards in sacks — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. San Francisco stays at home at Levi’s Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a home favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders in the playoffs. Seattle held the Rams to only 123 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Seahawks have only given up 22 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Seattle ran for 197 yards against the Rams en route to 322 total yards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Seahawks will clearly try to slow this game down by running Kenneth Walker early and burning time off the clock. Seattle has played four straight Unders — and not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders, but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 21-13 win in Seattle on December 15th. Purdy completed 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards in that game — but head coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks now have first-hand experience playing against the former Iowa State quarterback in addition to now three more games of tape against him. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Lastly, the weather forecast calls for wind and rain — and 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan may reel in his play-calling with the rookie under center to not take unnecessary chances given those conditions. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has finally gotten their act together after hitting rock bottom with a 4-8 record going into December. Getting healthy has helped. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally embracing their running game has made a big difference as well. The Packers have run the ball at least 32 times in three of their last four games while generating at least 138 rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Jones in the backfield. But perhaps the biggest tactical change Green Bay has embraced has been on the other side of the ball. The Packers are blitzing less — going from a 42% blitz rate in their first 15 games to just a 10% blitz rate in their last three. With the extra available pass defenders, Green Bay is playing multiple coverage schemes including more Cover-6 or two high safety looks. After ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes, their opponent completion percentage has dropped to 52.6% in their last three games, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Packers have picked off seven passes in their last three games with just one dropped which is a significant improvement over ten interceptions in their first 13 games where they dropped six potential interceptions. In these last three games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Packers should build off their momentum now as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against an NFC North foe — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after beating a divisional rival by 21 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four games in a row. Forcing more turnovers has played a big role in their recent success. The Packers have enjoyed a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight and three of their last four games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after having a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after posting a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games. Back at home at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC rivals. Detroit may be due for a letdown since they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after beating an NFC North rival by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They gained 504 yards against the Bears while averaging 7.41 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP. And while they held Chicago to just 230 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The weather is expected to be in the low-20s tonight in Green Bay — which raises the issue of how Jared Goff and his small hands will perform under these conditions. At home under the dome, Goff has posted a 109.3 Passer Rating while completing 65.8% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and 247.2 passing YPG. But in his seven starts on the road, Goff has an 87.6 Passer Rating while completing 63.7% of his passes with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions with a 7.4 YPA and only 174.2 passing YPG. It’s an issue. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be looking to avenge a 15-9 upset loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — but it will be difficult for Goff to replicate those numbers in these cold conditions. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in Rushing DVOA which will not be impacted by the cold weather — and they will be running against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Opponent Rushing DVOA Allowed. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-9) has won two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-8) has won three in a row after their 16-13 upset win at Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns upset the Commanders despite only gaining 301 total yards of offense last week. Deshaun Watson has been underwhelming in his return from suspension — he only completed 9 of 18 passes against Washington for 169 yards (although he did throw three touchdown passes). Despite Watson’s fully guaranteed contract that he signed as a free agent from Houston, head coach Kevin Stefanski has his team running the football with his high-priced sex offender. The Browns had not scored more than 13 points in three straight games before reaching 24 points last week. But the Cleveland defense has been outstanding as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games. This should be a motivated group to play the role of spoiler to prevent Pittsburgh from making the playoffs — and sending Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin out with his first losing season in his career would be the icing on the cake. Furthermore, Jadeveon Clowney left the team this week after claiming he wanted to play for a team that “wanted” him — and that prompted Myles Garrett to paraphrase Tomlin in claiming that his team does not want “hostage” playing for them. Expect the defensive to play inspired football with the malcontent Clowney now out of the picture. As it is, Cleveland has played  4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They held the Commanders to just 124 passing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. And while they have played six straight Unders, Cleveland has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. In their last three games, they are generating just 277.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 15.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their last three opponents to 276.0 YPG and a mere 10.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Steelers have gained 351 yards against the Ravens with 198 of those yards coming on the ground. The Under is a decisive 47-22-2 in their last 71 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They held Baltimore to only 240 total yards — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Steelers have not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games. They have held their last three opponents to 216.7 YPG and 13.0 PPG. But Pittsburgh has scored less than 20 points in four of their last five contests. Back at home, the Steelers are gaining only 317.0 YPG and 18.7 PPG. They have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by three points or less. The Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh makes the playoffs with a win this afternoon combined with a New England loss and Miami loss — so the stakes are high for them. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 games against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) lost their fifth straight game after their 23-6 loss at Seattle as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (8-8) has lost five games in a row as well after their 23-21 loss at New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has played themselves out of the playoff race — and their offense has been anemic by scoring just nine combined points in their last two games. But I expect second-year head coach Robert Saleh to rally his troops in the role of the spoiler against a reeling Dolphins team that still clings to postseason hopes. The Jets have suffered three-straight upset losses — so turning the tables this week would give them some measure of satisfaction. Quarterback Mike White is out for this game with a rib injury — but I consider that a blessing in disguise since that allows for the veteran Joe Flacco to play under center this afternoon. Flacco may not be the quarterback of the future — but he is a savvy veteran with a Super Bowl championship on his resume. In limited time this season, he has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and just three interceptions.  White thew two interceptions last week in the loss to the Seahawks. Flacco will be using this game as an audition to serve as a backup next season — hopefully, for him, a playoff contender. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 9 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 6 points in their last game. Flacco will not have any druthers playing in a hostile environment — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. Furthermore, the decision to sign Mike Glennon as backup quarterback signals that Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be available — and that means rookie Skyler Thompson gets the start under center. The 6th round pick out of Kansas State is completing only 54% of his 74 passes this season. He has thrown only one touchdown pass while tossing three interceptions — and his low 5.2 yards-per-attempt mark is concerning given the weapons and speed the Dolphins have on offense. It looks like starting left tackle Teron Armstead will not play with the foot injury that has him doubtful. This Jets' defense remains quite good — they hold their home hosts to just 308.3 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 18.6 Points-Per-Game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Miami needs to win this game and then hope New England loses to Buffalo to make the playoffs — but there are rumors that the entire coaching staff will be fired if they do not make the playoffs. I think rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is a bit overrated because I don’t think the inventive play-calling he picked up from Kyle Shanahan necessarily qualifies him for the Hall of Fame quite yet. McDaniel has had some bumps this season — mostly with game management but also with the Tua Tagovailoa situation. Overall, I think he is doing fine and deserves another year — but the team’s owner dreams of Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh coaching his team. Needless to say, I don’t like the vibes, once again, within this organization. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Titans head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. They did give up 361 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more yards in their last game. The Titans go back on the road where they are scoring only 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 269.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The formula for success in this contest will be to keep running Henry who looks primed for at least 30 carries in this contest. But the Titans will have to rely on Joshua Dobbs at quarterback who had thrown only 17 career passes in the NFL before making his first career start last week against the Cowboys. Dobbs accounted for himself pretty well against the Dallas team — he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards. But the Jaguars will benefit from the game tape they now have on Dobbs for this contest. Jacksonville has only allowed six combined points in their last two games albeit against similarly less-than-ideal quarterbacking situations with Houston and the New York Jets. They held the Texans to just 277 total yards after limiting the Jets to only 227 yards the previous week. The Jags have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Houston only ran for 84 yards against them last week — and the Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Jacksonville ran for 169 yards against the Texans — making it the third straight game where they gained at least 147 yards on the ground. But the Jaguars have then played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. Jacksonville returns home where they are holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents including four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. 25* NFL ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing good football as of late — and it starts with their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG and outgaining them by +95.0 net YPG. Kenny Pickett returned at quarterback last week and completed 26 of 39 passes for 244 yards. He did throw a touchdown along with an interception — but that pick was his first one in five starts. He is completing 65.2% of his passes in his rookie season. The Steelers outgained the Raiders last week by +149 while holding them to just 201 total yards. Las Vegas only gained 58 rushing yards last week — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog getting up to three points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 26 games in January under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 16-7-3 ATS. Baltimore is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. But Baltimore has not scored more than 17 points in those four contests — they are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore stays at home where they are getting outgained in yardage despite their 5-2 record. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 27-24 win against the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite on December 24th. Green Bay (7-8) has won three straight games after their 26-20 upset win at Miami as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins had another good game against the Giants — he completed 34 of 48 passes for 299 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In his last four games, Cousins has thrown for 1357 yards for a 339 passing Yards-Per-Game average — and he has tossed ten touchdowns during that span. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Vikings generated 353 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But Minnesota also gave up 435 yards to the Giants in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teas with a losing record at home. Green Bay has found their offensive identity (finally) — they are scoring 26.5 PPG in their last six games. The key to the Packers' offensive success has been to lean into their dynamic running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In Green Bay’s last four games, those two running backs have 117 combined touches for 635 yards with six touchdowns. The Packers have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They go back home where they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. Green Bay is looking to avenge a 23-7 loss in Minnesota on September 11th — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings at Lambeau Field Over the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Watching Tom Brady last night was excruciating — and I had long concluded that these rumors that he is going to go play for San Francisco or Las Vegas next year as a joke since he is a 45-year old QB with diminishing skills (but the Raiders may still decide to bring him here on as an attraction on the strip). And Tennessee was brutal for us on Saturday. But yet, here we go with the darn Indianapolis Colts tonight (in a situation I have been thinking about for weeks). I know interim head coach Jeff Saturday is a joke. But allow me to offer the gentle reminder that we are betting numbers rather than teams. We have Monday Night Football home dog getting more than a field goal coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history after going into halftime with a 33-0 lead against the Vikings — and, oh, it’s against a Brandon Staley-coached team. And, by the way, Nick Foles may be an upgrade at quarterback for Indianapolis because he can at least throw the football down the field still (as opposed to Matt Ryan). Success in sports gambling requires being willing to invest in bad teams (with the point spread, of course). In the NFL right now, it is pretty much all bad teams, in one way or another. If one wants to only invest in "good" NFL teams, well, then that is a recipe for passing on the entire card. If you need to hold your nose and look away, I don’t blame you. The Rams played great yesterday after being awful for us on Monday. These bad teams are also fickle. Irrespective of Jeff Saturday still deluding himself into thinking he still has a chance to get another head coaching job, the Colts players are embarrassed. It was only two weeks ago when they got demolished by a 33-0 score in the fourth quarter alone against Dallas. This team has been a laughing stock on national television for two straight weeks — so we are talking about professional pride at this point. As it is, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. They did cover the point spread for the first time in their last three games against Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home to Lucas Oil Stadium where they are outgaining their opponents in yardage. Indianapolis is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. Foles is making just his second start in over two years — but he held his own for Chicago last year by completing 24 of 35 passes for 250 yards while averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in a 25-24 victory against Seattle which included him orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The inconsistent Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is 4-3 on the road but still getting outgained in yardage. The defense ranks 22nd in the NFL in weighted Defensive DVOA. They rank 28th in Run Defense DVOA — and that unit is not getting any help from an offense that has passed the ball 51 times per game in their last four games. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season getting 3.5 or more points including both of their games at home under those circumstances. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. But the books still have them as a road favorite in the touchdown range. It may look easy for many to simply take the home underdog out of principle — but let’s not take the cheese. This Buccaneers team is going to continue to work hard with the playoffs — and an automatic home game in the first round by winning the NFC South — still in their control. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Bengals last week by 159 net yards. They gained 396 yards against the stout Cincinnati defense with Tom Brady completing 30 of 44 passes for 312 yards with two touchdown passes. It was the Buccaneers’ -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss. Tampa Bay held the Bengals’ offense to just 237 total yards — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. The deeper metrics indicate that the Buccaneers should be seeing better results than their win-loss record indicates. They are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They rank 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are outgaining their opponents in yardage while holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Despite their recent losing streak, Tampa Bay has outgained their last three opponents by +43.0 net YPG. Injuries have hit this team hard this season — especially on offense with their offensive line and their wide receiving corps. But this makeshift offensive line is starting to play better at this point of the season — and Brady finally has all his weapons back in the receiving game. Running the football has been an issue — but they are now getting productivity from rookie Rachaad White has 291 rushing yards in the last five games on 69 carries. Here now comes this Cardinals team that ranks 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run — and they allow opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arizona is a dumpster fire of a hot mess — to mix some metaphors. General manager Steve Keim is on a leave of absence. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury let it slip this week that he wants out of the organization with broken relationships with Keim, the owner, and Kyler Murray (who is out for perhaps the next year with his torn ACL). The team is a M*A*S*H unit with a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football that has exposed an already aging roster. And with the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league), the Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to their third-string quarterback. To compound matters, Arizona is 1-6 at home where they are getting outscored by -7.3 PPG and outgained by -64.4 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: To put it kindly, Kingsbury is not one of the best coaches in the NFL. It is telling that the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home in the second half of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the second half of the season. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders needed one of biggest boneheaded plays in the history of the NFL to survive last week’s game at home against the Patriots — but the final nail to end their playoff hopes will probably be struck tonight. Las Vegas beat New England last week on Chandler Jones’ 48-yard fumble recovery after the Patriots’ Jacoby Meyers’ ill-advised lateral despite that game looking destined for overtime. The Raiders will not enjoy tonight’s weather in Pittsburgh with temperates in the single digits and the wind chill projected at -11. This team left Las Vegas weather that will be in the 50s here today — and, of course, they play their home games in the domed and air-conditioned Allegiant Stadium. Quarterback Derek Carr simply does not have much experience playing in cold weather in his career even going back to his college days at Fresno State. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. They gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots while getting outrushed by 135 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. And while Las Vegas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Carr has only won one game as a starting quarterback on the road in a prime-time game in his career. Despite having Davante Adams as his top wide receiver this season, he has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year. Carr’s unwillingness to scramble also limits his effectiveness at this point in his career. In his last seven games, he has run the ball only six times for 21 yards despite still being pretty adept with his feet. He has not rushed for a red zone touchdown in two years — making it easier for the opposing defense since he represents virtually zero threat to take off with the ball. The Raiders have turned the ball over seven times in their last four games — and Carr is responsible for six interceptions during that stretch. And then there is the Raiders' defense which is the only team in the league this season to allow opposing quarterbacks to register a Passer Rating of over 100. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. With T.J. Watt healthy and back on the field, the Steelers are playing a stout defense that has held their last four opponents to just 16.3 Points-Per-Game and 278.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers last week by +116 net yards while holding them to just 209 total yards. They ran the ball 42 times for 156 yards which helped them control time of possession for 36:11 minutes — and Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Running back Damien Harris has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games. And after Mitchell Trubisky led them to victory last week, the team gets back Kenny Pickett under center tonight who has won four of his last five starts when able to complete the game. The rookie is doing a great job of managing games — he has not thrown an interception in five straight games and 129 straight throws. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I was taking Pittsburgh in this game even before the sad news regarding the death of Steelers’ legend Franco Harris. The NFL had already planned a big celebration recognizing the 50th anniversary of Harris’ “immaculate reception” touchdown catch against the Raiders — and Pittsburgh is inducting Harris into their Hall of Fame tonight. Now emotions will be heavy after Harris died in his sleep Wednesday night (after a day full of interviews plugging tonight’s festivities). Teams respond to moments like this. When Walter Payton died in 1999, the Chicago Bears traveled to Green Bay and upset the Packers by a 14-13 score despite being a 9-point underdog and having not won at Lambeau Field since 1993. With so many former players in attendance tonight, head coach Mike Tomlin will impart the value this organization puts on tradition — and it will be an energized crowd to get one for Franco. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-7) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (1-12-1) has lost nine games in a row after their 30-24 loss in overtime against Kansas City as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent slide, Tennessee can still retain a one-game lead in the AFC South race with a victory this afternoon. The Titans will have to accomplish this feat without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is out perhaps the season with an ankle injury — so it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Regardless, this is going to be the Derrick Henry show today. The bell-cow running back loves playing against the Texans. In his last four games against Houston, Henry has run the ball 120 times for 892 rushing yards — that is an average of 220 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 30 carries per contest. He is averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Carry in those last four games -- and he has scored nine touchdowns in those contests. He should feast once again against a Texans-run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in DVOA Run Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders. Houston allows 148 rushing YPG on 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. And while the Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee returns home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow AFC South rivals. Houston has played Dallas and Kansas City to close games in the last two weeks — but they are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread win. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week despite surrendering 502 total yards and getting outgained by -283 net yards. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Texans are splitting time at quarterback between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel — but they combined to pass for only 125 yards last week. Houston only generated 219 total yards against Kansas City — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Houston is getting outgained by -107.5 net YPG this season. On the road, they are getting outscored by -6.8 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. In their last three games, they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG and getting outgained by -127 net YPG. The Texans are riddled with injuries — headlined by rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver Nico Collins being out for this game. Houston will struggle to run the ball against this Titans defense led by Jeffery Simmons which is the top-rated against the run according to the DVOA metrics. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will be looking to avenge a 17-10 loss at home to the Titans on October 30th in a game that Henry rushed for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated with revenge. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). THE SITUATION: New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. But Jacksonville is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. But Jacksonville is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Jaguars have leaned heavily on Lawrence by asking him to throw 42 passes in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after attempting 40 or more passes in two straight games. The lack of a reliable rushing game will hurt Jacksonville tonight. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. The play of the Jaguars’ defense is a concern as well. They allowed 397 total yards last week with 154 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350 or more total yards. The Jaguars rank 28th in Defensive DVOA — and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 32.0 PPG and generate 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Jacksonville will now be without two of their best defensive players with linebacker Travon Walker (the top pick in the NFL draft) and defensive end Foley Fatukasi out for tonight’s game. Now the Jags play their third game on the road in their last four games on the road and on a short week under bad conditions for a Florida team. They are just 2-6 on the road while getting outgained by 55.9 net YPG. Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Wilson completed 18 of 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdown passes and only one interception — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Given the conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Lions gained 359 total yards last week — but the Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Jets only ran for 50 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after not rushing for more than 50 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC foes. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers has finally embraced the potential of the Green Bay offense if they commit to running the ball more behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. After bottoming out with just 12 rushing attempts in a 23-21 loss at Washington, the Packers have since run the ball at least 19 times in their last six games including 31 or more rushes in three of those games. They have gained at least 106 yards on the ground in five of those six games — and they gained 175 or more on the ground three times. Sticking with the running game helps Rodgers be more effective in the passing attack since defenders get burned for simply stepping back to defend the pass. It is not a coincidence that Christian Watson has stepped up as a deep threat in the second half of the season coinciding with these increased rushing efforts. Watson has now caught 11 of his 23 targets of more than 10 air yards — resulting in 294 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay has scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The Packers ran for 175 yards on 32 carries against the Bears — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Toal after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. But the play of the Packers' defense remains an issue — especially since the season-ending injury to linebacker Rashan Gary. The Packers have allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bears gained 409 yards against them two weeks ago — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. Green Bay returns home where Rodgers has been much more effective with a Passer Rating of 104 with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home at Lambeau Field. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the benefit of the mini-bye after playing on a Thursday. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns. But the Rams’ defense misses Aaron Donald who will be out once again for this game. They have given up 392.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they have surrendered 26 or more points in four of their last five games. They did hold the Raiders to 137 passing yards — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December. With both of these teams essentially out of the playoffs, look for a wild one tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants only gained 304 total yards last week in their loss to the Eagles. After thriving under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, defenses have adjusted to running back Saquon Barkley who perhaps is beginning to tire in the back half of the season. Barkley ran the ball only nine times last week for 28 yards — and he has only 38 carries in his last three games for 130 rushing yards. The Under is 15-5-2 in New York’s last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point-spread loss. And while the Giants got outgained by -133 net yards, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last contest. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but the Under is then 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. But in their last three games, they are scoring just 20.7 PPG and generating just 306.7 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commanders ran for 165 yards against the Giants two weeks ago — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. They get the rematch at home where they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. But the Washington defense is playing as well as any defensive unit in the league lately. They have held their last three opponents to 14.3 PPG and 279.3 YPG — and this group will be even better if and when Chase Young returns to action from his injury (which could be tonight). The Commanders have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home in the second half of the season. They have also played 4 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-1 in Washington’s last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in December. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (5-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five contests — after their 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 4th. New Orleans (4-9) has lost two in a row — and four of their last five as well — after a 17-16 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only gained 306 total yards against the Steelers in their last game. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game and generating a mere 306.0 total YPG in their last three contests. It is this ineptitude on offense that played a role in head coach Arthur Smith benching Marcus Mariota and turning to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has yet to appear in an NFL game this season — this will be a tough test in a very hostile environment against a stout defense. With tight end Kyle Pitts out the season with a torn MCL, this remains a limited Falcons’ offense that lacks weapons in the passing attack. Ridder may offer a more credible vertical threat in the passing game, but Smith is not going to ask Ridder to do too much — and this will remain a run-first team. Atlanta is scoring only 19.0 PPG and generating 290.8 total YPG in their six games on the road. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Falcons have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Atlanta surrendered 154 rushing yards to the Steelers in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams that lack a winning record at home. New Orleans only gained 298 yards in their loss to the Buccaneers just under two weeks ago. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. And while they only rushed for 66 yards against Tampa Bay, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 90 rushing yards in their last contest. New Orleans is scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 293.7 total YPG in those games. But the Saints are staying competitive by holding those last three opponents to 16.7 PPG — and they only allow 307.0 total YPG in their six games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December — and the Saints have played 5 straight Unders in December. This is a rematch of New Orleans’ 27-26 win in Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on September 11th — but these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Under the Total. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — but Tua Tagovailoa will probably not be playing on snow, so his experience with the Alabama winters will offer him some familiarity. Yes, I am worried about how Tagovailoa and his team will handle the cold weather. In his two previous starts in December and January, Tagovailoa completed only 55.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 yards-per-attempt and posting a loss Passer Rating of 58.8. Miami got outscored by 61 combined points in those two games. But what I am more concerned about with this Dolphins team is the travel grind they have been on that has led to this chilly environment as their final destination for a three-game road trip. Miami has spent the last two weeks in California playing in San Francisco and Los Angeles. That is a challenging road trip for any NFL team — but it is probably even worse for a southern team who felt the need to use heaters on the sidelines to adjust to the 50-degree weather in LA last week. Even more concerning is the defensive adjustment that the 49ers made against the Mike McDaniel passing attack. While most teams have played zone coverages to account for the speed of Miami wide receivers Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Niners played man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Tagovailoa thrives in this style of play given his ultra-quick release and sharp accuracy — but he gets into trouble if he has to turn to his second or third options. The Chargers copied this approach last week — and it is something the Bills are most likely going to continue. In his last two games, Tagovailoa has completed only 28 of 61 passes for a 45.9% completed percentage with just 440 passing yards, a lower 7.2 YPA average, and five sacks. Frankly, the Dolphins might be finally getting exposed as a solid but unspectacular team. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.3 PPG and outgaining them by +17.0 net YPG. They have +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Their five-game winning streak was all against teams currently with losing records with a combined 20-46-1 mark. When Detroit is the team with the best record during a five-game hot streak, perhaps you are a beneficiary of a favorable schedule? On the road, Miami is getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG.  The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — but this team stocked up with defensive linemen in the offseason providing them the depth to compensate for injuries. The Buffalo defense is allowing only 14.4 PPG and 292.3 YPG in their last three games — and they have only one touchdown in each of their last two games. The Bills are outscoring their opponents at home by +16.8 PPG due to an explosive offense that scores 31.2 PPG and generates 410.6 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range. This team will embrace the cold weather — and Allen’s experience in chilly weather from his collegiate experience at Wyoming is a better preparation for what he will face than Tagovailoa’s winter experiences in Alabama. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo against the Bills. The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense stymied Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense by holding them to 322 total yards. This San Francisco defense has not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games — and their last three opponents have combined for just 24 total points. With this Niners' defense closer to full strength after dealing with injuries, they are making a strong case that they are the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game and 286.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 2nd and 5th in Run Defense and Pass Defense according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. San Francisco ranks 2nd in Defensive DVOA  overall and 1st in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent performances. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by three or more touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. San Francisco will make it very difficult for the Seahawks to run the football — the 69 rushing yards Tampa Bay generated against them was actually the most yards they have allowed on the ground in their last six games. The 49ers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. They have also played 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. And while they have played two straight Overs with Purdy under center, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. The Seahawks have been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. And they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 148 passing yards in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and San Francisco has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and the Seahawks have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game.  And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in four straight games before getting stymied by the 49ers’ stout defense. Now playing this weak Chargers defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who struggled under the pressure of the San Francisco pass rush last week. Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in Passer Rating — and now he faces a defense that ranks 26th in the NFL using the weighted DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders that privileges the most recent results. Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns but two interceptions against the Niners. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Dolphins stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and their offense generates 397.2 Yards-Per-Game away from home. But Miami also allows their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chargers average 353.7 total YPG, Miami has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average at least 350 YPG. Injuries have not helped the Los Angeles cause with linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson among their best players that have been out for an extended basis — and star safety Derwin James is doubtful to play tonight after missing practice all week with a quad injury. But the defensive problems go deeper than that. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has been ineffective in taking care of his side of the football after being hired after one season as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. In hindsight, the Rams’ defensive success that year probably has much more to do with Aaron Donald than it did with Staley’s schemes which effectively deployed nickel and dime schemes with Donald still clogging the run lanes. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to generate 420.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game from these foes. Los Angeles returns home to SoFi Stadium where they are giving up 28.0 PPG. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Justin Herbert usually manages to keep his team competitive with four of the Chargers’ six losses being decided by one scoring possession. He completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. Los Angeles gained 386 yards in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angles has played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-8) has lost seven of their last nine games after their 40-14 loss at Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Tennessee (7-5) has lost two games in a row after a 35-10 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars managed only 266 total yards of offense in their loss to the Lions last week. They have not scored more than 17 points in four of their last six contests — and they are averaging just 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Jaguars stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Ryan Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for just 141 yards  — and he was relieved by rookie Malik Willis who completed 2 of his 4 passes for another 16 yards. The Titans managed to generate only 209 total yards of offense against the Eagles. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last games. That result appeared to be the final straw for ownership who fired general manager Jon Robinson earlier this week for, in large part, trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on draft day. The issue was never the importance of Brown — it was whether or not the organization was going to meet his eventual sky-high contract demands. In hindsight, trading him to Philly and then drafting Treylon Burks in the first round later that night. But Burks has been injured for much of the season — and he is questionable to play today after not practicing this week. Without Burks yet stepping up, the Titans' offense lacks a number-one target in the passing game. Injuries on the offensive line have compounded matters — most notably, left tackle Taylor Lewan is out the season. But perhaps the biggest concern for this offense relates to running back Derrick Henry who seems to have hit a wall. In his last four games, he has run the ball 75 times for just 208 rushing yards with only one touchdown. Not only is he averaging just 2.78 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not generated more than 3.1 YPC in any of those four games. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games. And while the Jaguars' defense has been a disappointment, they are solid against the run railing 13th in the league using the DVOA analytics by Football Outsides. But the Titans' defense remains solid as their loss to Philadelphia was the first time they allowed more than 20 points since Week Three. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 17 or fewer points. They allowed 453 yards last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after alloying 350 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they are allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After only gaining 400 or more yards once in their first nine games, the Raiders have topped the 400-yard threshold in three straight games after they gained 404 yards against the Chargers. But Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 350 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders held the Chargers to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Las Vegas stays on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down. They gained 171 rushing yards last week against the Seahawks — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. The Rams have been a gigantic disappointment, especially on offense where they are scoring 16.8 PPG and averaging 281.3 YPG this season — and they are managing just 17.7 PPG and 284.3 YPG in their last three games. Los Angeles misses left tackle Andrew Whitworth who retired in the offseason — and subsequent injuries on the offensive line have made this unit a shell of the one that helped them win the Super Bowl last season. The Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week as well — but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But …  running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the  Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts managed only 290 yards of offense against the Steelers. They have not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games and seven of their last nine contests. They have not scored more than 21 points in ten of their 12 games. They are averaging only 15.8 Points-Per-game on the season — and in their five games on the road, they are scoring just 11.7 PPG and averaging 311.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 4 straight Unders when playing on a short week after a game on Monday. And while the Colts endured a -2 net turnover margin against Pittsburgh, they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range including 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in that range. Indianapolis has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 42 games played in December, 30 of these games finished Under the Total. Dallas has the top-ranked defense using the DVOA analytics. They have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less with four of their opponents failing to score more than 10 points. They lead the NFL in sacks which likely spells a nightmare for the immobile statue that is the aging Matt Ryan tonight. They held the Giants to just 300 total yards in their Thanksgiving game. They outgained New York by +130 net yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Giants — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 30 passes for 261 yards in the win — but Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 16.8 PPG and 313.5 total YPG — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving. New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo held the Lions to just 326 yards in the victory last week. They will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury — but their defense is getting healthier with defensive ends Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa along with middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds full participants in practice this week. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while Buffalo has seen at least 53 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two or more games with 50 or more combined points scored. The Bills have averaged 414.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo scores 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders as a road favorite. Buffalo’s defense remains elite even without Miller — they rank 3rd in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have held their last three opponents to 310.0 YPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they gained 409 total yards against the Vikings, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England only gained 45 yards on the ground in that game — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots' defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank just 25th in the NFL in DVOA on offense — ranking 24th with their running game and 22nd with their passing game. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without running back Damien Harris and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. They are only generating 303.0 YPG in their last three games. New England has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots will want to slow this game down by running the football and likely playing two high safeties to dare the Bills to run the football and get out of their passing attack. New England has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against rivals from the AFC. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers managed to generate just 271 yards against the Titans last week. The struggling Green Bay offense has not scored more than 17 points in three of their last four games — and they have not scored more than 22 points in six of their last seven games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has conceded that he is playing with a broken thumb — but while that may explain how his once immaculate delivery has devolved into a wrist flick motion, his problems go way beyond this season. Even a broken thumb does not explain his bad decision-making — and he continues to struggle to develop chemistry with his wide receiving corps in the Brave New World without Davante Adams. I do not understand why this team simply does not run the ball more (although the deteriorating offensive line has not always made that easy — but they abandon the run too quickly: as Michigan demonstrated yesterday versus Ohio State, sometimes the ground game does not emerge until the second half). After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed Tennessee to generate 6.69 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after giving up 6.69 YPP in their last contest. They go on the road where they are only scoring 15.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played all 3 games on the road as an underdog this season Under the Total. Philadelphia has held five of their last six opponents to under 20 points. The Colts gained only 284 total yards against them last week. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philly has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enduring a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. The Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. But this Philly defense remains elite and is now bolstered on the interior of their defensive line with the acquisitions of Ndamukong Suh and Lineal Joseph. They hold their guests to 18.0 PPG and 285.6 total YPG when playing at home. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: New York (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-18 upset loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (7-3) has won three of their last four games after their 40-3 win at Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants are decimated with injuries — especially on the offensive line. They will be without three starters and a rotational player with Evan Neal, Shane Lemieux, Jon Feliciano, and Joshua Ezeudo all declared out today. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is questionable as well with an illness — but he did take part in limited practice yesterday. New York is also thin at wide receiver with Wan’Dale Robinson out with an injury — and Sterling Shepard already out the season, Kadarius Toney traded to Kansas City, and Kenny Golladay being in the perpetual doghouse. New York is scoring only 18.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. The Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Under is also 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York did generate 413 yards last week — but the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas held the Vikings to just 183 total yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They limited Minnesota to just 110 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Cowboys have an elite defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in the DVOA rankings at Football Outsiders. They have held seven of their ten opponents to less than 20 points — and they lead the league with 42 sacks. Daniel Jones is going to have a very difficult time passing the ball with his banged-up offensive line — and Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can safely stack the box to stop Saquon Barkley given the limitations the Giants will have in the passing game. The Cowboys generated 458 yards of offense last week with Dak Prescott passing for 276 yards. But Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while Dallas has scored at least 28 points in each of their last three games, they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. The Cowboys return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of Dallas’ 23-16 victory in New York as a 1-point underdog on September 26th. The Giants have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders when avenging a same-season loss by seven points or less. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing 250 or more yards in two straight games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers lead the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. They held the Chargers to just 51 rushing yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 90 or fewer rushing yards. The 49ers did rush for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. But, frankly, despite their offense loaded with weapons with skill position players getting healthy and the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, too often head coach Kyle Shanahan dials up gimmicky plays when simple plays do the trick. The Niners have not scored more than 23 points in three of their last four games. Some of that can be explained by Shanahan’s commitment to running the football — and they have held their last two opponents scoreless in the second half. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. Arizona has only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Cardinals are riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit. They hold their opponents to only 295.4 YPG when playing on the road. Arizona has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. Kansas City has played two straight Unders — but they have then played  5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City and Los Angeles are completing 65.5% and 66.4% of their passes this season. The Chiefs have played 6 straight Overs on the road against opponents that are completing 64% or more of their passes — and the Chargers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against opponents that are completing 66.4% or more of their passes. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 31-28 upset loss in overtime as a 4-point favorite. Minnesota (8-1) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 33-30 upset win in overtime at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Many observers have expressed surprise that the Vikings are home underdogs in this game. Well, the laptops don’t think their 8-1 record corresponds with their underlying numbers. The analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota as the 17th-best team in the league — ranking a middling 17th on offense and 19th on defense. This is a team that is solid but not spectacular in an area — their run offense ranks 10th in the league using the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics which is their best specific showing. They rank in the teens in Passing Offense, Run Defense, and Pass Defense. They are just 25th in Special Teams DVOA. They are getting outgained in yardage by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. All seven of their wins during this winning streak have been by one scoring possession. If they win four of those seven games, then no one bats an eye if a 5-4 team is a home dog to a 6-3 road team. The Vikings were very fortunate to leave Buffalo with a victory last week — it required Josh Allen red zone interceptions, Sean McDermott bypassing chip shot field goals on 4th downs, the Bills’ lacking a four-minute offense, and a miracle fumble recovery on the Buffalo goal line with less than a minute to go. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after that huge comeback victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. They did surrender 486 yards in that game with 175 of those yards coming on the ground. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards. And while Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 50 passes for 357 yards, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after passing for 250 or more yards. Cousins has a 2-8 record against Dallas in his career. The Vikings are also dealing with some injuries on defense with defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson out and linebacker Za’Darius Smith questionable with a knee. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 4th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics with the 2nd best rushing attack and the 4th best pass defense. The Cowboys have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They did gain 421 yards against the Packers' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has averaged 431.5 Yards-Per-Game in their last two contests. And while they gave up 415 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up 350 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys lead the league with 35 sacks — and Cousins is notorious for struggling if he is under duress. Dallas is staying on the road where they are outscoring and outgaining their home hosts — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents — and the Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference rivals. The books will likely be vindicated for treating Minnesota as closer to a .500 team this afternoon. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing them after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans expect quarterback Ryan Tannehill to again play tonight after he completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on Sunday. The only loss for Tennessee since September 19th was their 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City when they had to use rookie Malik Willis under center. The Titans controlled the tempo of that game — 5th-year head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business in preparing his team to impose their will on their opponent. Tennessee knows who they are and what they want to do — and it all starts with running back Derrick Henry who is playing at a very high level right now. Henry only gained 53 rushing yards on 19 carries against Denver — but that was the first time in his last six games that he did not rush for at least 102 yards. In his last six contests, he has gained 731 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. With his lighter workload on Sunday, he should be ready for a big performance tonight against a Packers defense now playing with Rashan Gary who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Green Bay has been one of the worst defensive teams against the rush all season (even with Gary in the front seven). They have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. They rank 28th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. It has been even worse for the Packers when playing at home as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 5.5 YPC and a whopping 171.3 rushing YPG. The Titans’ ability to run puts their defense in a position to better succeed — they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Titans have covered the point spread in seven straight games. While some bettors and handicappers may feel that is evidence of them being due for a letdown, that sounds like the gambler’s fallacy to me. The counter-take is that Tennessee remains undervalued by the betting market given their less-than-glamorous formula for success. When it comes to evidence, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. This is what this team does when they get on a roll under Vrabel’s leadership. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. Green Bay seems more likely to be vulnerable for a letdown after the highly emotional victory against the Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy versus Aaron Rodgers Bowl last week. Playing on a short week only compounds that matter. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers surrendered 421 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Besides Gary, Green Bay will also be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell who is out with a knee injury. The Packers' defense has been a disappointment this season — they rank 17th in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. Green Bay has given up at least 23 or more points in six of their last seven games (and seven of their ten this season). 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: If it is after Halloween, then Ron Rivera has his Washington team starting to click. The Commanders started 1-5 in 2020 before winning six of their last ten games to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. Last year, Washington started the season 2-6 before closing out the year by winning five of their last nine games. The Commanders lost four of their first five games this season — but they have won three of four and just played the one-loss Vikings well in a narrow loss last week. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record with Rivera as their head coach. It starts with the play of their defense. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. Furthermore, the return of rookie running back Brian Robinson who missed the start of the season after being the victim of a shooting in the preseason. He ran the ball 13 times for 44 yards last week — and while those are not spectacular numbers, his presence opens up other options for the offense with Antonio Gibson who does have to then be the bell-cow running back. Additionally, Taylor Heinicke may be an upgrade at quarterback over Carson Wentz. He gives the team a spark. He is quicker to distribute the football than Wentz who takes too many sacks and melts under pressure. Heinicke is completing 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards in three starts with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Last year in 15 starts (16 games), he completed 65% of his passes last year while throwing for 3419 passing yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 313 rushing yards. Heinicke has a great connection with wide receiver Terry McClaurin who has been targeted at least eight times in each of his three starts for 16 receptions and 242 receiving yards. Heinicke is a solid game manager who avoids the trouble that buries Wentz — and this team has weapons with an energized McClaurin along with Robinson and Gibson out of the backfield. The defense will keep them in games. Washington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. And while they outrushed the Vikings by 81 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. Philadelphia is averaging 391.0 total YPG — but Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams generating at least 350 YPG. The Eagles are completing 68% of their passes behind quarterback Jalen Hurts — but the Commanders have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games in the second half of the season against teams completing at least 64% of their passes including eight of those last eleven circumstances. And while Philly controls the ball for 32:14 minutes per game, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who control time of possession for at least 32 minutes per game. Philadelphia gained 360 yards in their win against the Texans last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Houston to just 135 passing yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are playing great — but one of their keys to success has been dominating the turnover battle which can be fickle as the season moves on. Philly has only committed three turnovers this season while enjoying a league-leading +15 net turnover margin. Now they host a Washington team that has only committed three turnovers in their last four games — and they have forced six turnovers during that stretch. The Eagles are vulnerable. They rank 27th in run defense according to the DVOA metrics. And while they are averaging 391.0 YPG, that mark has dropped by almost 50 YPG in their last three games as they have averaged only 343.0 YPG in those three contests. Philadelphia ranks only 27th in Special Teams DVOA — and the Commanders rank 7th in the league in Special Teams DVOA. Washington is allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.6 or more YPP. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against NFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. Wentz was under center in that game — and he was awful. Robinson had yet to be medically cleared at that point of the season. But what was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball — Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson headline the players missing on defense while the offense is without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the team is still winning with Justin Herbert finding a way to win games. Herbert has found a new reliable receiver in second-year pro Joshua Palmer who he has targeted 22 times in the last two weeks for 17 receptions and 163 receiving yards. Palmer was a third-round pick last year from Tennessee. Running back Austin Ekeler had an off day in the victory in Atlanta as he only had 71 total yards on 21 touches. But Ekeler had been doing everything for this team in the previous three weeks given the attrition at wide receiver — he has 240 rushing yards and another 169 receiving yards with four touchdowns from 65 touches in the previous three games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. And while they gave up 201 rushing yards to the Falcons' run-first offense, they have then covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. Despite the injuries at wide receiver, Herbert has completed at least 30 passes in three straight games. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games — and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The defense has played better lately as they have held their last three opponents to 23.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league in defending the pass according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on defense. The 49ers' secondary is without Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the rest of the season — but the issues on their defensive line might be even worse. San Francisco will be without defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw tonight (after already being without defensive tackle Maurice Hurst for the season) along with defensive end Samson Ebukam. The Niners still have Nick Bosa — but those are three starters on the defensive line they will be without which changes the dynamic for a unit that was ranked 4th in the league in run defense using DVOA. The 49ers have allowed 28.7 PPG and 347.0 YPG in their last three games — much higher than the 18.4 PPG and 285.9 total YPG they are giving up for the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are allowing 25.8 PPG this season — but the 49errs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against opponents who are allowing at least 24 PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Carolina (2-7) has lost five of their last six games after a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only managed 315 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. They are a run-first team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith — they are running the football on 61% of their offensive plays from scrimmage. This focus on running the football burns time off the clock and helps the Atlanta defense — they only allowed 336 total yards to the Justin Herbert-led offense. The Falcons rushed for 201 yards last week. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Falcons are allowing 450.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more YPG in their last three contests. Atlanta ranks 8th in efficiency on offense according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — but they are only averaging 280.5 total YPG in their four road games which is resulting in just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Falcons have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks 10-13. They have also played 6 straight Unders playing on Thursday Night Football. Carolina only managed 228 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. Carolina caught an angry Bengals team that got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Cleveland. And while the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, they did not unload their valuable assets on defense like defensive end Brian Burns. Carolina allows only 21.2 PPG when playing at home — but they are scoring just 19.6 PPG and generating a mere 285.0 total YPG. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog. Former Arizona Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks is the team’s interim head coach after Matt Rhule was fired on October 10th — and his teams have played 7 straight Unders when playing at home against conference rivals. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against NFC South divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 15-5-2 in the last 22 games between these teams when they are playing in Carolina. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-2) has won five straight games after their 17-10 upset win at Houston as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 44-23 win at San Francisco as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We won’t know who the starting quarterback for the Titans will be until kickoff with Ryan Tannehill a game-time decision with his high ankle injury. If Tannehill cannot go, then it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Frankly, both options are limited in the passing game, especially given the lack of reliable weapons the team has at wide receiver. It will be the Derrick Henry Show tonight for the Titans, especially since running the football will burn the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Led by Henry’s 219 rushing yards last week with Willis as the starting quarterback, the Titans generated 354 total yards while having their offense on the field for 34:48 minutes of that game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Willis only passed 55 yards last week on 10 attempts — but the Titans have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. They held the Texans to just 43 rushing yards — and they have played 4 straight Overs after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. Tennessee has played four straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Under is 12-3-1 in Kansas City’s last 16 games after their bye week. Mahomes passed for 423 yards while leading an attack that generated 529 yards of offense. But the Chiefs have played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. And while Kansas City has passed for at least 265 yards in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in three straight games. The Chiefs return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Kansas City has played 38 of their last 58 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points — and they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as a 10.5 to 14-point favorite. They have also played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I am not going to be surprised if the Chiefs exceed their 24 rush attempts per game average tonight — one way to neutralize the Titans’ rushing attack which wants to wear down your defense is to run the ball more yourself to fight back on the time of possession game. Kansas City is only averaging 25.7 Points-Per-Game at home this year with them playing more Unders. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 27-17 loss at Buffalo as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (1-6) has lost five games in a row after their 31-27 loss to Miami as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers may have finally embraced the approach on offense that should give them success moving forward in the second half against the Bills. Green Bay ran the ball in the second half of that game — and that helped them generate 398 yards of offense against a stout Buffalo defense. The Packers trailed at halftime by a 24-7 score — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing a game where they allowed at least 24 points in the first half. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. While the sputtering Packers’ offense has received most of the attention, their defense has been a disappointment as well. Green Bay ranks 22nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. They are giving up 25.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Surprisingly, the Packers' offense ranks 8th best in the league in Offensive DVOA. Nothing beats playing the Lions to help a team’s offensive numbers. Detroit is last in Defensive DVOA — and they are 30th against the run and last in the league against the pass using those analytics. They are giving up 32.1 PPG and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after four games in a row. They did gain 393 yards against the Dolphins last week — and quarterback Jared Goff completed 27 of 37 passes for 321 yards. Goff plays much better at home — Detroit averages 281 passing YPG. The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Detroit is scoring 35.8 PPG and generating 431.0 YPG at home at Ford Field. Detroit has been dealing with injuries — but they do get running back D’Andre Swift back for this game and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is back in the mix. But the Lions are surrendering 36.0 PPG and 470.5 YPG in their four home games. Detroit has played 20 of their last 27 games at home Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Lions have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played two shootouts last season where 67 and 52 combined points were scored. Green Bay and Detroit have played 9 of their last 13 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing at Ford Field. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). THE SITUATION: The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-13 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-5-1) has lost five of their last six games after a 17-10 loss to Tennessee on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Steelers to just 300 total yards last week -- they are tied for 3rd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.1 total Yards-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their seven games — and they have held five of their seven opponents to 17 points or less. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Eagles have played a decisive 57 of their last 81 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, Philly goes back on the road where they are generating 342.0 total YPG which is over 50 YPG below their season average. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49-point range.  Houston only generated 71 yards before their final drive last week against Tennessee when they accumulated 90 of their 161 total yards in that game. Even at full strength, the Texans' offense is anemic as they score only 16.6 PPG and generate 288.7 YPG, ranking 29th and 31st in the league. The Offensive DVOA metrics used by Football Outsiders rank Houston as the second-worst offense in the league. Quarterback Davis Mills has not registered a Quarterback Rating of 100 or higher in any of his starts this season. He will be missing his weapons in the passing game with Nico Collins out with a groin injury and Brandin Cooks seemingly uninterested in playing after hoping he would get moved at the trade deadline. He was dealing with an injury — but he has not practiced the last two days because of an issue listed as personal. This leaves Mills to have to rely mostly on dink-and-dunk check downs in the passing game. Rex Burkhead and Dameon Pierce have combined to catch 44 balls on 55 targets for 223 yards — but they are only averaging 5.1 yards-per-catch and 4.1 yards-per-attempt. The Texans managed only 118 net yards in the passing game last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where they did not pass for more than 150 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense has been solid. They are holding their opponents to 22.0 PPG. They have held five of their seven opponents to 23 points or less — and they have played held four of those seven opponents to 20 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 35-17 win against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (23-20) looks to snap a four-game losing streak after their 23-20 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cincinnati defense may be the most underrated unit on both sides of the ball (and special teams) in the NFL. They held the Falcons to just 214 total yards in their victory last week. They are 5th in the league by holding their opponents to 5.92 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They are limiting their opponents to a Red Zone conversion rate of just 38.9% — and they have stopped six of the seven 4th down plays of their opponents. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL to not allow a touchdown in the second half. They have not allowed more than 19 points in four of their last five games. This may not be the best defense in the league — but they are right up there. They rank 5th in the NFL using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Bengals generated 537 total yards against the Falcons, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest (and now they will be without star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for four to six weeks given his hip injury). Cincinnati is struggling to run the football — they have only rushed for 75 and 78 yards in their last two games. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 straight Unders after not rushing for more than 100 yards in two straight games. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 305.8 Yards-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games on the road against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Cleveland held the Ravens to only 254 yards in their loss last week. Turnovers are killing this team as they have lost the turnover battle in each of their games in their current four-game losing streak. The Browns have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. Cleveland has played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total when they have lost four or more in a row — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing four or five of their last six games. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 8 straight Unders against AFC opponents. The Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games between these teams — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games played in Cleveland. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I generally do not like to lay double-digits in the NFL (although sometimes it is appropriate). I know what happens if Green Bay covers: they finally run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers is resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. Rodgers is working very hard to let everyone know how his team (and the world) continue to let him down. In the meantime, he misses open receivers, freezes out receivers, and throws too many lazy passes because the play is not developing to his delicate standards. Cue: eye roll. Even if the Packers started investing in the tactics I mentioned above, I don’t think they can successfully execute them against this Bills juggernaut. Buffalo has the best-run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to Davi Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. Rodgers is without his pet receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for this game who are both out with injuries. Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury that he will make sure to grab after he makes another bad mental decision — he did not practice on Wednesday with an inexperienced group of wide receivers that he needs every moment of preparation time with nurturing. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. If there was a switch that Rodgers could simply flip with this challenge, why did he not do it after the upset loss against the Giants? Or the next week in the upset loss against the Jets (when I still thought they could Get Smart)? The loss to the Commanders last week just seemed like the evidence of what this team now is. I still thought the Packers would win the NFC North even after the loss of Davante Adams — but besides the decline of the offensive line and the lack of creativity using their two excellent running backs, the defense has regressed significantly. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Maybe — even after all this — Green Bay steps up if they were playing at home at Lambeau. But they are on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They gave up 364 total yards to the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after alloying 350 total yards in their last game. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. To make matters worse: they are catching Buffalo almost completely healthy, rested, and off a bye. The Bills may have the best roster depth in the league — and only defensive tackle Spencer Brown is injured so David Quessenberry, a starter for Tennessee last season, seamlessly steps in. Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. After their statement win against Kansas City, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And guess what? This is just their third game at home this season after beating their previous two opponents at home by an average score of 39.5-5.0 with the Bills generating 483.0 Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: I can live with myself losing a 25* play on Buffalo tonight; however, I would be apoplectic if I followed the "sharp" play and took Green Bay, and then they got buried. That litmus test is usually effective for me. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog in his career before tonight. He might relish in a blowout loss to let his coach and management know: “I told ya so!” (I have no idea what the “told ya” means …). 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.