At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (238053) and Paris Saint-Germain (238054) in the semifinals of the FIFA Club World Cup. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W4-D0-L1) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory against Borussia Dortmund on Saturday. Paris Saint-Germain (W4-D0-L1) joined them with a 2-0 victory against Bayern Munich on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Gonzalo Garcia has been the breakout star for Los Blancos in this tournament — and he scored goals in the 10th and 20th minute on Saturday to give his team a 2-0 lead. He has scored four goals in this event — and this may be the match where he shares the pitch with Kylian Mbappe in the starting XI with the superstar slowly added into the mix in this event by manager Xabi Alonso since the striker was dealing with both an illness at the onset of this event along with a nagging right ankle injury since the Champions League. He was a substitute in the semifinals but scored in the fourth minute of stoppage time in what turned out to be the game-winning goal. Now in this epic showdown with PSG, I can’t confirm that Mbappe will start — but he will get plenty of time in this high-profile match. A front three of Mbappe, Garcia, and Vinicius Junior could be very explosive — and then there is Jude Bellingham in the midfield feeding those three attackers! Real Madrid has scored three goals in three of their six matches — and they have 11 goals overall in their five matches. But Los Blancos have surrendered goals in three of their five matches in this event. Furthermore, while they have only given up four goals, they have given up 6.89 expected Goals (xG) in those matches. With their recent transfer of center-back Huijsen, out for this match because of yellow card suspensions, their backline is not at full strength. As it is, Real Madrid only has four clean sheets in their last 11 matches across all competitions — and they have surrounded 14 goals during that stretch. Paris Saint-Germain generated 1.98 xG against Bayern Munich despite going down to 10 men late in that match — and Ousmane Dembele scored their second goal in the sixth minute of stoppage time despite them being down two men at that point. Les Rouges were playing loose — and they made two mad mistakes to draw red cards. If that continues in this match, Real Madrid will punish them in a way the Bavarians were unable to do. On the other hand, PSG is so explosive, they were comfortable going on the attack rather than simply burning time off the clock when they earned possession late in that match. Like Mbappe, Dembele has not played much in this event due to injury. But this is prime-time now — so he will get his minutes. Les Parisians have scored 12 goals in this event. Yellow card suspensions will impact their defensive cohesion with defenders Willian Paco and Lucas Hernandez out for this match. PSG’s offensive onslaught can be devastating as they demonstrated in their 5-0 victory against Inter Milan in the Champions League final. They have only conceded one goal in this tournament with four clean sheets — but they do get into shootouts with explosive opponents. In the quarterfinals of the Champions League, they beat an offensive-minded Aston Villa squad by 3-2 and 3-1 scores. In their two matches with Arsenal in the semifinals of the Champions League, only one of the matches saw less than three combined goals. If they take the lead, then Los Blancos will have to get aggressive — and that will create more scoring opportunities for Les Rouges as they demonstrated against Bayern Munich even when down two players on the pitch.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 9th in 2022, in the second leg of the Round of 16 when Real Madrid rebounded from a 1-0 loss in the first-leg with a 3-1 victory. In the last seven meetings between these teams, there has been three or more combined goals scored in six of those contests — and four of those seven matches saw four or more combined goals. This is a heavyweight contest — but it’s the summer — so I expect a high-scoring affair where the stars on both sides are on display. 25* FIFA Club World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (238053) and Paris Saint-Germain (238054). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234225) and the USMNT (234226) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the championship match of this tournament with their 1-0 victory against Honduras on Wednesday. The USMNT (W4-D1-L0) joined them earlier that day with their 2-1 victory against Guatemala in the semifinal match. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This current incarnation of the Mexican national team is not an explosive scoring club. Canada scored six goals against Honduras in their opening match — but El Tri only managed one goal and a mere 1.26 expected goals (xG). Raul Jimenez scored their lone goal in the 50th minute — they only managed ten shots in the match with just four on target. In this tournament, they have scored eight goals in their five matches on just 6.48 xG — and after their 3-2 victory against the Dominican Republic in a loose opening match, they have scored only five times in four matches. But Mexico has been outstanding on defense embracing a physical style of play under manager Javier Aguirre that has stifled their last four opponents. El Tri has registered four straight clean sheets after holding Los Catrachos to only four shots with just one on target (no Big Chances of 0.3 xG or higher) — Honduras only had 0.10 xG in that match. Overall, Mexico has only conceded those two goals in their opening match against the Dominican Republic — and they have only 1.48 expected Goals Allowed (xGA). They lead all squads in this event by giving up only 1.6 Shots-on-Target per match. The United States Mens National Team only had three Big Chances against Guatemala in the semifinals — and they held them to only two Big Chances. The Stars and Stripes have scored 12 times in their five matches — but they have a 10.12 xG in those contests. They have conceded four times — and their xGA closely matches that 4.44. The Americans have enjoyed a pretty favorable schedule which included Trinidad & Tobago, Saudi Arabia, and Haiti in the group stage before Costa Rica and then the Guatemalan side that upset Canada in the quarterfinals. I suspect manager Mauricio Pochettino will have his side play conservative and cagey against El Tri with the hopes of stealing the match in the second half. In the United States' most recent match against Mexico in a friendly on October 15th last year, the Yankees managed just one shot in a 2-0 loss. The intensity of this match will be much higher with a Gold Cup title on the line. Team USA has won three of their last four appearances in a Gold Cup title game — and they registered a clean sheet in two of those matches. And in their last four championship matches in a CONCACAF event this decade against Mexico, they held El Tri scoreless in three of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Mexico has scored seven of their eight goals in this event in the second half — so there is a very good chance that the second half of this match will have an eye toward extra time (while the quarterfinals and semifinals go directly to a shootout, the finals does indulge in a 30-minute extra-time before the penalty kick shootout). El Tri has registered five straight clean sheets in the Knockout Stage of the Gold Cup. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234225) and the USMNT (234226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Paris Saint-Germain (238042) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (238041) in the quarterfinals of the FIFA Club World Cup. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain (W3-D0-L1) advanced from the Round of 16 with a 4-0 victory against Inter Miami last Sunday. Bayern Munich (W3-D0-L1) joined them in the quarterfinals with a 4-2 victory against Flamengo on Sunday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: PSG has now won eight of their last nine matches across all competitions after a ruthless first half against Lionel Messi and company as all four of those goals were scored in the opening 45 minutes to completely put that match away. The blowout allowed manager Luis Enrique to rest some of his key players in the second half to help manage their fitness for this contest. Ballon d’Or contender Ousmane Dembele also made his debut in this tournament by playing 30 minutes in the second half. I have been cautious in getting too financially involved early in this event because I was unsure about how motivated some clubs would be — especially the European teams technically in their offseason. But now that the championship is much closer, I expect the club that recently crushed Inter Milan by a 5-0 score to win the UEFA Champions League to display their A-Game as they did against Inter Miami last week. Les Bleus’ lone loss in their last nine matches was their second group stage match against Botafogo by a 1-0 score despite holding them to just 0.28 expected Goals (xG). They only had 1.01 xG in that match — but they have generated at least 2.02 xG in each of their other three matches. With three clean sheets, PSG has only surrendered one goal in their four matches which is the lowest in this tournament. They led the group stage with a possession rate of 73.4%, 11.3 passes per possession, 104.3 progressive passes gained overall, and just 6.9 passes allowed per defensive action. The biggest development this season has been the emergence of striker Dembele who has shined in the role of replacing Kylian Mbappe who signed with Real Madrid last summer. His improved finishing skills make him one of the best players in the world — and he is on the shortlist to win the Ballon d’Or awarded to the player who enjoyed the best season in all of soccer. The roster was talented and balanced — and keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and right-back Achraf Hakimi may very well be the best players in the world at their position. Adding Khuicha Kuaratskhelia in the January transfer from Napoli was a shot in the arm for the scoring attack. Overall, the unity and cohesion of this team are better than the ones they had when Mbappe was the clear superstar and Talisman. The squad also had depth. PSG has a situational edge in this matchup having been able to stay in Atlanta all week after their Round of 16 match against Inter Milan was also at the indoor (and air-conditioned) Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Bayern Munich has had to travel for each of their matches. Their overall numbers in this tournament are propped up by their 10-0 thrashing of Auckland City (the only amateur team in the competition) in their opening match. Their loss to Benfica in their third match was frustrating for manager Vincent Company since he resorted to playing several of his normal starters in the second half that he was trying to give them the match off. The Bavarians lost the xG battle by a 1.60 to 1.08 margin in their victory against Flamengo. They have allowed three of their four opponents to score which continues to expose their vulnerabilities on defense. Their aggressive high-risk approach to ball domination leaves them open to too many defensive breakdowns. In their six losses or draws in the Championship League this year, they allowed as many high-quality shots of +0.2 or higher xG as they generated themselves. PSG is not a good matchup for them since the Parisiens are so technically proficient and have so much speed. Botafogo’s defensive counter-attacking approach can be a thorn in PSG’s side. Opponents that are direct allow them to play coy and take advantage of mistakes in the counter-attack. Bayern Munich lacks that same level of tactical flexibility. The Bavarians are not at full strength either. Star midfielder Alphonso Davies is out with an injury — and he is one of their few players who can match the top speed in the PGS starting XI. Company is also without defensemen Hiroki Ito and Kim Min-Jae.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich has won the last four meetings between these two teams — including a 1-0 victory against Les Bleus in the league stage of the Champions League in November. But that was before PSG started to thrive in Enrique’s system — and before they added Kvaratskhelia in the transfer portal. Thoroughly dominating Inter Milan is a testament to just how much this group improved during what looked like a lost season late in the Fall. The Nerazzurri have proven themselves to be one of the best clubs in Europe after reaching the UEFA Champions League final two years ago in a loss to Manchester City. They outlasted an excellent Barcelona squad in the semifinals by an aggregate 7-6 score after surviving what might have been the match of the year in the second leg in a 4-3 victory in extra time. PSG won the expected goals battle against Inter Milan by a 3.51-0.50 margin. Les Parisiens concluded their season with five clean sheets in their final nine matches in the UEFA Champions League. They also pulled off the rare treble by winning the Champions League, the Ligue 1 title, and the Coupe de France after a 3-0 victory against Reims on May 24th. They are in sight of adding a fourth major title in what has become a magical season. 25* FIFA Club World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Paris Saint-Germain (238042) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (238041). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Mexico (234222) minus the goal-line versus Honduras (234221) in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W3-D1-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-0 victory against Saudi Arabia in their quarterfinal match on Saturday. Honduras (W2-D1-L1) advanced to the semifinals by beating Panama by a 5-4 margin in a shootout after their match ended in a 1-1 draw on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Honduras was fast approaching Last Chance Saloon before tying their match with Panama by scoring in the 82nd minute. They lost the expected Goals (xG) by a 1.74 to 1.12 margin — so they were fortunate to get that match to penalty kicks. Los Catrachos have reached the semifinals of the Gold Cup for the first time since 2013. But despite only one loss in this tournament, they have lost the xG battle in three of their four matches. Their only xG victory was against El Salvador — and that was only by a 1.08-0.94 margin despite a 2-0 victory on the scoreboard. Their loss in this event was at the hands of Canada in a 6-0 drubbing in their opening match — and les Rouges do not have their best player, Alphonso Davies, in this tournament. Honduras has a -2.01 net expected Goals differential in the Gold Cup — and that number is even worse in practice given their light strength of schedule. Canada was considered one of the top three favorites entering the tournament along with Mexico and the United States. But Curacao and El Salvador are lightly regarded. Los Catrachos did top their group in the second round of the World Cup qualifiers recently — but their competition was Bermuda, Cuba, Antigua & Barbuda, and the Cayman Islands. Manager Reinaldo Rueda will have his side play a defensive posture that will attempt to score on the counter-attack — but Mexico prefers to play with the ball in a possession-oriented attack. Saudi Arabia plays a similar style as the Hondurans — but they managed only 0.02 xG against El Sri in the quarterfinals. Mexico was listless in the first half of that match — and manager Javier Aguirre lit into them at halftime. They came out with much more energy in the second half and ended up dominating the shot attempts by a 14-1 margin. El Tri has only given two goals in their four matches with three clean sheets. Only the Dominican Republic scored against them in a wild 3-2 contest in their opening match of this tournament as they were finding themselves. They gave up two goals in that match despite their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) being 0.74 in that contest. They have 1.38 xGA overall in their four games — and they are +3.84 net xG differential overall. Led by Raul Jimenez who has been a striker in the English Premier League for years (currently with Fulham), Mexico has scored seven goals in their four matches. Aguirre gets center-back Cesar Montes for this match after he missed the quarterfinals due to a yellow card suspension.

FINAL TAKE: El Tri is missing some important players from their ideal starting XI given injuries to Hirving Lozano and Henry Martin — but their national team has depth. While Aguirre’s goal is to oversee a deep run in the World Cup next summer which has often eluded this national team with high internal expectations, winning this tournament is a source of pride. Mexico has won this tournament nine previous times including the most recent event in 2023. They also won the most recent CONCACAF Nations League which was settled in March. After failing to score in the first half against Saudi Arabia, Aguirre should be able to motivate his squad to play with fire in the first half tonight — and once they get a lead, it will force Honduras to abandon their defensive approach which should open up more scoring opportunities for El Tri. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Mexico (234222) minus the goal-line versus Honduras (234221). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Manchester City (238018) minus the goal-line versus Al Hilal (238017) in the Round of 16 of the FIFA Club World Cup. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W3-D0-L0) swept their three matches in the group stage of this tournament with their 5-2 victory against Juventus on Thursday. Al Hilal (W1-D2-L0) claimed second place in Group H with their 2-0 victory against Pachuca on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man City was the most dominant side in the group stage of this event. They were the only club to win all three of their matches. Their 13 goals were the most of any team — and their +11 net goal differential was also the top of all in the competition. The Sky Blues underachieved this season by finishing third in the English Premier League and exited the Champions League in the Round of 16. But everything changed for manager Pep Guardiola’s side when reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri suffered a ruptured ACL that kept him out for almost the rest of the season. Without the star midfielder, the glue in the middle of the defense was gone. But now he is back on the pitch and playing at a high level — and the team made several impact transfers this year to bolster their defense. The team also has striker Erling Haaland back after an injury-prone season. Haaland scored in the Citizens dominate victory against Juventus who are consistently one of the best defensive sides in the world. Man City generated 3.92 expected Goals (xG) while avenging a loss to Juventus in the group stage of the Champions League. The rhythm and chemistry is back and looks as good as it has since the start of the 2024-25 season. Defensively, the Sky Blues have only given up two goals — and of the 22 shots they have conceded in their three matches, only three of them were High-Value shots with a 0.2 or higher xG. Just seven of those 22 shots even registered at 0.1 or higher xG — so a vast majority of the shots they are surrendering are of low quality. Guardiola’s possession tactics are wearing down their opponents. They lead the competition with a 92.8% pass completion rate — and they lead all teams with 337 progressive carries. Their constant pressure has resulted in 21 corner kicks including at least six in all three of their matches. They are riding a five-match winning streak in all competitions. Al Hilal is unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions — but their victory against Pachuca was their lone victory in this competition. This Saudi Arabia side is perhaps the crown jewel of the nation’s significant financial commitment to soccer. There are plenty of stars on this squad — but like MLS in the US, most of these players took the money as they entered the twilight of their careers. They have a world-class manager in Simone Inzaghi who took Inter Milan to the finals of the Champions League last month. He is emphasizing defensive tactics and scoring on the counter-attack. But those ambitions took a huge hit on Thursday when attacking midfielder Salem Al-Dawsari suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out for six weeks. Not only will the Blue Waves miss his scoring prowess, but they will also be lacking in leadership not having their captain on the pitch. Al Hilal has only given up one goal in this competition with two clean sheets — but they have surrendered 4.3 xG. They have an impressive 1-1 draw against Real Madrid — but they surrendered 2.64 xG in that opening match and lost the xG battle by -0.78. While the Blue Waves have plenty of world-class professionals on the pitch (albeit in the second halves of their careers), their offensive threats lack clinical finishing skills. As a team, their shot accuracy rate is just 21.1%. Their striker Marcos Leonardo along with Al-Dawsari has only scored one goal on 3.3 xG — and that is probably more a reflection of their shot-making than bad luck (and now Dawsari is out). As a team, they rank 20th by only generating 0.11 Shots Per Possession — so not being accurate on these limited chances really hurts. They are only generating 1.3 High-Value shots (0.2 xG or higher) per match.

FINAL TAKE: This is Al Hilal’s just second match ever against an English Premier League side. They will want to grind out a low-scoring match — but if and when Man City scores, they will have to abandon that approach which should create more good scoring opportunities for the EPL giants. The Sky Blues have enjoyed a lead 89% of the time in this tournament. They are also very motivated to win this event after going not winning a trophy for the 2024-25 season. 25* FIFA Club World Cup Match of the Month with Manchester City (238018) minus the goal-line versus Al Hilal (238017). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Spain (234013) minus the goal-line versus Portugal (234014) in the Finals of the UEFA Nations League. THE SITUATION: Spain (W6-D2-L0) reached the finals of the UEFA Nations League with their 5-4 victory against France on Thursday. Portugal (W6-D2-L0) advanced to the finals with a 2-1 win against Germany on Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, the home of Bayern Munich.

REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The two best national teams in the world right now are probably Spain and France — so I considered that the de-facto championship match on Thursday. La Roja is clicking on all cylinders right now. Since getting upset by a 2-0 score against Scotland in a Euro 2024 qualifying match in March of 2023, Spain is unbeaten in their last 21 matches with 16 victories over that stretch. They are a scoring machine as 17 of those 21 matches saw them score at least two goals. Scoring five goals against a French side loaded with good defensive talent was quite a statement. Lamine Yamal scored two of those goals — and as ridiculous as it may seem to suggest, the 17-year-old may already be the best player in the world. He took Barcelona to another level this year — and he appears to be improving by the match so far in 2025. La Roja is loaded with veteran talent — but it is their younger players like Pedri, Nico Williams, and Yamal that make this group so exciting. Manager Luis de la Fuente made a tactical change when taking over the national team after previously serving as the manager of the under-21 squad. While still embracing the tiki-taka possession foundation of previous Spanish national teams this century, he quickened the pace of the passing with more diversity and pace out wide. The speed in the starting XI with this trio of young stars thrives in the system. La Roja won the 2023 UEFA Nations League two years ago before winning the 2024 Euro last summer. Taking this event will continue their dominance as they look to the World Cup next summer. Taking on the German national team in Munich would have been a challenge — but Portugal made that concern null and void with their comeback victory on Wednesday. Frankly, that result may speak more to the decline of the German team over the last few years than it does about the strength of this Selecao side. On paper, the roster looks good — and there is exciting young talent. But one of several major criticisms of manager Roberto Martinez is his continued commitment to center the attack around the 40-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo. Admittedly, Ronaldo scored the game-winner on Wednesday. I think the squad would be better served by using Ronaldo as a super sub off the bench — as I concluded last summer in the 2024 Euro. Portugal showed little in that tournament. They had an easy group — and they beat Czechia and Türkiye. But they then got upset by Georgia in their final group stage match. They then needed penalty kicks to advance past Slovenia in the Round of 16 before losing to France in the quarterfinals. In the UEFA Nations League, they got another friendly quarterfinal draw against Denmark but still lost the first leg by a 1-0 score before winning the second match by a 5-2 score to advance. Their group stage matches in the Nations League in the fall after the Euro 2024 were against Scotland, Croatia, and Poland — all solid national teams but not possessing near the talent level of this Spanish side. The Selecao has registered only one clean sheet in their last nine Nations League matches since the fall of 2024 after the 2024 Euro. La Roja can be scored on as their aggressive style allows for counter-attacks — and they lack an elite box defender. But a Ronaldo-focused Portugal attack is simply not potent enough to keep up — especially with Manchester United attacking midfielder Bruno Fernandes out of form.

FINAL TAKE: Spain is unbeaten in their last ten UEFA Nations League on the road outside their home soil. They should score at least two goals against Portugal in regulation time and claim the championship without needing extra time. 25* UEFA Nations League Match of the Year with Spain (234013) minus the goal-line versus Portugal (234014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Inter Milan (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Inter Milan reached the finals of the UEFA Champions League with a 4-3 victory against Barcelona in extra time on May 6th which pulled out a 7-6 win in the aggregate score. Paris Saint-Germain reached the finals with their 2-1 win at home against Arsenal on May 7th which secured their 3-1 aggregate score victory. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Inter Milan is unbeaten in their last six matches after a 2-0 win at Como to close out their Serie A competition last Friday. The Nerazzurri are a defense-first team with a great backline led by Benjamin Pavard and Alessandro Bastoni. They also have an outstanding goalkeeper in Yann Somomer who had +1.44 Goals Saved Above Expectation in their second-leg match against Barcelona. His .828 save percentage in Champions League matches in 2024-25 was the best for all keepers who played at least eight matches. Inter Milan did engage in some high-scoring matches in the Knockout Stages of the Champions League — but that may speak more to the aggressive natures of Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals of this tournament. The Nerazzurri had eight clean sheets in their first nine matches in the Champions League this year before the second leg of their Round of 16 contest against Feyenoord. On the road, they have resisted clean sheets in three of their last six matches in the Championship League. And while they have scored at least two goals in their last three Championship League matches on the road, they had previously not scored more than one goal away from home in five straight Championship League contests. In their last six contests in Serie A, Inter Milan has registered only 9.55 expected goals. Paris Saint-Germain has won four games in a row across all competitions after their 3-0 victory against Reims in the Coupe de France last Saturday. In their last six matches in Ligue 1 play, les Parisiens have only surrendered 5.55 expected goals. They led the French top flight by only giving up 35 goals and 36.39 expected goals. In their eight contests in the Champions League Knockout Stage matches this year, PSG registered four clean sheets. They also boast one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma. PSG scored only one goal in three of their last five road matches in the Champions League.

FINAL TAKE: Champions League finals tend to be cagey affairs with the match being played on neutral grounds under intense pressure. Given Inter Milan’s defensive counter-attacking tactics, this match will probably open as a grinder. PSG presses, but they do not want to fall behind against this veteran squad. The last six championship contests in the Champions League have seen less than 2.5 goals. Look for that trend to continue in this one. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Inter Milan (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bournemouth (200114) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200113). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W14-D11-L10) is unbeaten in their last five English Premier League matches after a 2-1 upset victory at Arsenal last Saturday. Aston Villa (W17-D9-L9) comes off a 1-0 victory against Fulham in the EPL on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE BOURNEMOUTH WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Cherries are still motivated to win matches to quality for European competition next season, even if it is the Conference League events. They are in eighth place on the English Premier League table with points — and their 60.12 expected points actually rank them as the third-best team in the EPL this season using the advanced metrics. Hmmm. This is a must-win for manager Andoni Iraola’s side to stay competitive for the money that comes with European competition next month. This is an underrated side whose 55 actual goals betrays their 67.91 expected Goals (xG) on the season. At home, the Cherries have a W7-D4-L6 record with 25 points — and their expected points rise to 30.09. They have scored 21 goals at home at Vitality Stadium despite their 32.80 xG on their home pitch. Now they face a tired Aston Villa side that has recently been eliminated from both the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals and the FA Cup semifinals. Manager Unai Emery is fantastic and got every inch out of this roster — but this is a letdown spot for an injured roster. Realizing they were in competition for those important tournaments, ownership stepped up to take on Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United — but he is now injured and out the season. Even worse, they now lost their critical holding midfielder Youri Tielemans for at least this week with a muscle injury. The Villans are still in contention for the Champions League although the Europa League is more likely their destination. They have 31 points from a W9-D4-L3 mark since January 3rd in the EPL — but their expected points in those games drop to 26.85 given their luck on defense. They also have been better at home. On the road, they have scored 23 goals and conceded 29 goals — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) rises to 31.77.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t throw away your ticket if the Villans are holding a late lead! They have conceded eight goals in stoppage time after 90 minutes which is tied with the relegated Southampton for the worst in the EPL. On the other hand, the Cherries’ eight goals after stoppage time in the second half are the most in the EPL. Frankly, I think we win before that — but this is a solid Plan B. 25* English Premier League Saturday NBC-TV Game of the Year is with Bournemouth (200114) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Paris Saint-Germain (224214) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (224213) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semifinal match. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain won the first-leg match between these teams with a 1-0 victory on the road at the Emirates Stadium last Tuesday. Arsenal must win this match by two goals to reach the UEFA Champions League Finals against Inter Milan.

REASONS TO TAKE PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Just to be crystal clear, PSG would be more than happy with a draw in this second-leg since that ensures they advance by the aggregate score — and we would not cover this goal-line bet. And bettors should know that the books resolve side and totals bets after regulation time concludes — so if this match goes to the 30-minute extra-time and Les Parisiens score the winning goal, it is too late for us. But I think PSG wins this match in regulation. Remember, Arsenal has to play aggressively to tie the score — and I suspect that sense of urgency will open up scoring chances for PSG. The Gunners are not in great form right now after losing over the weekend in the English Premier League by a 2-1 score at home against Bournemouth. Manager Mikel Arteta played his first-team starters so Arsenal had no excuses for losing that match. They have only won once in their last five matches in the EPL. Arteta is doing a fantastic job — but he is not close to having his best starting XI available to him. Gabriel Magalhaes is one of the best center-back defenders in the world but he is out the season with a hamstring injury. Arteta is also lacking a genuine striker at forward with both Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz out with injuries. Additionally, the wily veteran midfielder Jorghino with tons of big-time experience previously for Chelsea and the Italian National Team is out with a lung injury. The Gunners were outmatched out of the gates in the first-leg last week with PSG deploying a somewhat surprising press to begin that game. Manager Luis Enrique’s tactics worked since Ousmane Dembele scored in the fourth minute of the match. Arsenal failed to level the score despite playing in front of their home fans. Forward Bukayo Saka looked out of sorts on the pitch and does not look to be back in form after missing time earlier this year due to an injury. Even if Arsenal manages to tie this match, they have not handled leads well all season. They have dropped 21 potential winnings points when holding a lead in EPL matches this season — and the ten times in the top flight when they blew a lead and did not pull out the victory is a club record. PSG comes off a loss over the week in Ligue One on the road against Strasbourg — but Enrigue rested his best players to prepare for this match. Some bettors might be scared off Les Bleus' recent form as they are just W2-D1-L3 in their last six matches — but they already clinched the Ligue One title with six matches left in the campaign. It has been a remarkable campaign for PSG who needed to win their final three matches in the Group Stage of the Champions League to claim the 15th seed. But Les Parisiens beat the EPL champion this season, Liverpool, in the Round of 16 before taking care of Aston Villa in the quarterfinals. PSG also beat Manchester City in the Group Stage of the Champions League — so they are well-tested against the squads from England. Adding Khuicha Kuaratskhelia in the January transfer from Napoli was a shot in the arm for the scoring attack. But the biggest development this season has been the emergence of striker Ousmane Dembele who has shined in the role of replacing Kylian Mbappe. His improved finishing skills make him one of the best players in the world — and he is on the shortlist to win the Ballon d’Or awarded to the player who enjoyed the best season in all of soccer. The roster is talented and balanced — and keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and right-back Achraf Hakimi may very well be the best players in the world at their position. Overall, the unity and cohesion of this team are better than the ones they had when Mbappe was the clear superstar and Talisman. The squad also has depth — and this will be a clear advantage against this injured Arsenal group. Finally, finding success at the Parc des Princes is very tough. PSG has scored 14 combined goals in their last three victories at home in the Champions League — and they have a W13-D2-L1 mark at home in Ligue One with 42 goals and just 15 conceded goals. Their expected goals (xG) in those matches rise to 52.16. Les Parisiens have advanced in 18 of their 19 Knockout Stage matches in the Champions League when playing at home in the second-leg after winning on the road in the first-leg.

FINAL TAKE: Arsenal has never advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Champions League after losing the first-leg at home. They did win at Real Madrid in the second-leg of the quarterfinals match with them — but they went in with a dominating 3-0 leg after the first match and Los Blancos are in disarray right now with their manager leaving at the end of the season. The Gunners have not reached a championship match in 19 seasons — while PSG most recently reached the UCL finals when they lost to Bayern Munich in 2020. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year is with Paris Saint-Germain (224214) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on Aston Villa (200078) versus Chelsea (200077). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W10-D9-L7) is unbeaten in their last three matches across all competitions after their impressive 2-2 draw against Liverpool on Wednesday. Chelsea (W12-D7-L6) has lost three of their last four contests across all competitions after a 3-0 loss at Brighton and Hove Albion last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Villans are underachieving in the English Premier League relative to the deeper metrics. They are tied for eighth place in the table with 39 points — but their expected points rise to 40.61. They have scored 37 goals — but their expected goals (xG) rise to 45.64. They have surrendered 40 goals — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) drops to 38.38. Aston Villa has performed better in their return to the UEFA Champions League this year where they earned one of the top eight seeds and a bye into the Final 16 Knockout Stage — and they have a very winnable showdown with Club Brugge on deck so a Quarterfinals or better finish is very much in the card for Emery’s men. The Villans are relatively healthy right now — and they added an important cog for their attack last month by acquiring forward Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United with the option to buy. He gives the starting XI another viable scorer to complement Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers. Aston Villa has been very tough to beat at home where they have lost only once in their last 22 matches in the EPL. This season, they have a W6-D7-L1 mark at home against EPL competition — and their 25 points betray the expected 29.29 points from the predictive analytics. They have 23 goals at home — but their xG is 29.24. They have surrendered 17 goals — but their xGA drops to 13.60. Chelsea was one of the hottest teams in Europe as they went unbeaten from November 3rd through December 22nd in all 12 matches across all competitions. But since then, the Blues have won only three times in their last 10 matches. They hit rock bottom last week by only managing 0.5 xG and failing to register even one shot on target in their loss to Brighton. Manager Enzo Maresca has pushed for his team to rebound from that embarrassing effort — but injuries are holding the Blues back right now. The hamstring injury to Nicolas Jackson in their February 3rd match against West Ham United was a back-breaker. The striker has nine goals and six assists — and his absence leaves the team without a true number nine forward since Marc Guiu Paz is also out. Chelsea was already dealing with a host of injuries including Noni Madueke who has seven goals and four assists. Cole Palmer had been on-fire during their fall run — but he has failed to register a goal or an assist in his last five matches. He needs more help. Christopher Nkunku will play up top in a false-nine formation since he is more of a midfielder than a striker up top -- he only has two goals and one assist this season. Since the Jackson injury, the Blues have only scored once while conceding five goals in two losses to Brighton in an FA Cup match and then their EPL showdown last Friday. Chelsea has a W6-D3-L4 record on the road in the EPL this season with 21 points — but their expected points drop to 18.73. They have conceded 19 goals in those 13 road matches — but their xGA rises to 23.38. In their last six matches on the road across all competitions (all against sides who competing in the EPL this season), the Blues have lost four and drawn twice while only scoring three times and conceding 11 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa wants to avenge a 3-0 loss at Stamford Bridge back on December 1st — but that was at the peak of the Blues best stretch all season when they were in much better health. The Villans have won seven of their last 11 matches at home at Villa Park with the other four matches resulting in draws. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with money-line on Aston Villa (200078) versus Chelsea (200077). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Arsenal (200197) and Manchester City (200198). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W3-D1-L0) comes off a 1-0 victory against Tottenham last Sunday in their most recent match in the English Premier League. Manchester City (W4-D0-L0) has won their first four matches in the EPL this season with their 2-1 victory against Brentford last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are in a busy stretch of matches while missing key players in their respective attacks. Arsenal is without the injured Martin Odegaard who is one of their best attacking players in transition. The Gunners have scored only six goals in their four EPL matches so far this season. They come off a scoreless draw at Atalanta on Thursday in their opening match in the UEFA Champions League. They managed only 0.8 expected goals (xG) in that match. They generated just 0.7 xG in their EPL match against Tottenham last week — but their defensive play remained outstanding. The Hotspurs engage in an aggressive pressing attack — but manager Mikel Arteta’s squad limited them to just 0.7 xG. This was an even greater accomplishment when considering they played the match without suspended midfielder Declan Rice. Arteta’s defensive schemes are brilliant in cutting off passing lanes — and he has the benefit of the best center-back defensive pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel. The Gunners have only given up one goal in EPL action so far this season. Arteta is often content to play a defensive structure that defends the low block while generating offensive from counter-attacks. This formula has led to lower-scoring matches as their last six matches across all competitions have seen no more than two combined goals scored. The Gunners have clean sheets in five of those last six matches. Man City comes off a goalless draw against Inter Milan on Wednesday in their opening match in the Champions League. The Cityzens were frustrated by Inter Milan’s deep low block that they are likely to encounter again in this match. Manager Pep Guardiola is missing the injured Kevin DeBruyne who is one of the best passers in the world. While Phil Foden is fit to make his first start in the EPL this season, his strengths are with more with his scoring prowess rather than feeling the dynamic Erling Haaland up top. They were unable to generate a shot with an xG of over 0.10 after the first ten minutes of that match. And Haaland only managed three shots in that match without DeBruyne on the pitch. Man City has scored 11 goals in EPL action — but their xG drops to 9.0 in those four matches. But the Cityzens have only concerned three goals — and they lead the EPL with just 3.54 expected Goals Allowed (xGA). Arsenal forward Kai Havertz is developing into a very cagey forward up top for Arteta which Guardiola must take into account. Havertz is a whiz at winning aerials which helps the Gunners retain possession. His threat in transition must be taken into account as well — and that will limit Man City from getting too aggressive in their pressing attack.

FINAL TAKE: Only one goal was scored in the two EPL matches between these two sides last season. In the opening match on October 8th at the Emirates, Arsenal won by a 1-0 score despite generating just 0.5 xG. Man City was without DeBruyne in that match — and they only managed four shots on target and a mere 0.4 xG. In the rematch on March 31st at the Etihad Stadium, it was a scoreless draw with Arteta’s 4-4-2 scheme limiting the Cityzens to just 1.0 xG. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200197) and Manchester City (200198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762) in the finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W4-D1-L0) reached the championship match in this tournament with their 1-0 victory against Uruguay on Wednesday. Argentina (W4-D1-L0) beat Canada by a 2-0 score to win their Semifinals match on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Colombia was down a man for the entire second half to Uruguay but they still held La Celeste to just 0.8 expected Goals (xG) in that match. Los Cafeteros have been outstanding on defense all tournament. They have only surrendered two goals in their five matches — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 2.5 surfing that span. Colombia has scored 12 goals — but their xG drops to 8.5 in their five matches. They will not have right back Daniel Munoz after he was issued a second yellow card in the Uruguay match — and he plays a key role in their attack. Munoz is one of the most active players in their counter-attack in transition. He has also scored two of their 12 goals in this tournament. Argentina is winning low-scoring matches. They have only scored eight goals in their five matches. But the key for La Albiceleste since winning the 2022 World Cup has been the play of their defense. Argentina has conceded only one goal in this tournament. They have a 0.59 non-penalty kick xGA per 90 minutes in this event. They also play elite transition defense which is where Colombia is most dangerous.

FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey, lower-scoring affairs — and with the Copa America going straight to a penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes without a 30-minute extra-time period, both sides may be cautious late in the second half to take their chances in that season. These two teams last played in a World Cup qualifying match in February of 2022 which was a low-scoring contest that Argentina won by a 1-0 score. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Spain (225602) with the goal-line versus England (225601) in the finals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: Spain (W6-D0-L0) reached the championship match of this tournament with their 2-1 victory against France in the Semifinals last Tuesday. England (W3-D3-L0) advanced to the finals with their 2-1 win against the Netherlands on Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Spain has been the best team in this tournament over the last month — and they have been the better national team vis-a-vis England since the 2022 World Cup. For a few World Cup and Euro cycles, La Roja has maintained the tiki-taka short pass possession approach that defined their golden generation over a decade ago when they bookended the 2008 and 2012 Europe Championships by winning the 2010 World Cup. But after an upset loss in the penalty kick shootout against Morocco in the Round of 16 of the 2022 World Cup, manager Luis de la Fuente adjusted his tactics by incorporating more of a vertical approach within their possession-drive tactics. Spain won the UEFA Nations League last year. They have won all six of their matches in this tournament with only their match against Germany needing extra time to be resolved — and the host nation was one of the favorites to win this event. La Roja has now won eight straight matches and 16 of their last 18 across all competitions. They are led by two of the most exciting young players in the world in Barcelona 16-year-old Lamine Jamal and Athletic Bilbao 22-year-old Nico Williams. These two have terrorized their opponents on both sides of the wing and very well might be the most prolific two players in this tournament. But Spain’s attack has been diverse — their 13 goals have been scored by nine different players. La Roja has allowed only three goals with one being an own goal. They have endured the more difficult schedule by defeating the reigning European champions Italy as well as the 2018 World Cup champions in France and the 2012 winners in Germany who were all on the shortlist to win this event. Critics can nitpick their defensive play in their last two matches against the French and Germans — but some credit needs to go to those sides. Plus, the game state of those matches should be taken into account. In the Semifinals against Les Bleus, Spain rallied from giving up the first goal in the 9th minute by taking a 2-1 lead in the 25th minute — a lead they protected despite an opponent with the best player in the world in Kylian Mbappe furiously trying to come back. I’m not issuing demerits that de la Fuente adopted defensive tactics to hold off the French in the second so they did not win the expected Goals (xG) battle. Against Germany, they were holding on to a 1-0 lead before the host nation tied the score in the 89th minute. I credit Spain for still winning that match in extra time. Looking at the deeper analytics, La Roja enjoys a +4.7 net xG differential in this tournament — and they lead all teams in this event by holding a lead in their matches 58% of the time. England has only held a lead in 22% of the minutes of their matches. They also have a mere +0.1 net xG differential in their six matches. Their most impressive effort was against the Netherlands in the Semifinals — a team that I consider less than the sum of their parts given the conservative tactics of manager Ronald Koeman. Or, put another way, France and Germany probably beat the Dutch decisively. The Three Lions beat Serbia who exited in the Group Stage — and they needed extra-time to beat Slovakia after a miracle 95th-minute stoppage time goal by Jude Bellingham. And let’s remember they advanced past the Netherlands after a goal from Ollie Watkins in the 90th minute — or that match goes to extra time. England lost the xG battle to both Slovakia and Switzerland. Frankly, there is a ton of pro-England sentiment in the US media which is probably a by-product of Anglophile bias and familiarity with the English Premier League whose players populate their roster. While Harry Kane now plays for Bayern Munich, he is not in form after a long season with Bayern Munich including their deep Champions League run. The best-case defense of the Three Lions involves referencing manager Gareth Southgate’s tactical move to a 3-4-2-1 formation which has given more space for Phil Foden to roam on the right side. While I definitely like the idea of empowering Foden in ways Pep Guardiola did for Man City last year, the Three Lions only generated 1.2 xG against the Dutch as they got stymied in the second half once the Netherlands bolstered their midfield numbers. In their previous match against Switzerland in the Round of 16 when American Superhero Landon Donovan could not stop gushing about the tactical changes that unleashed Bukayo Saka and the English attack, they only managed 0.6 xG for the match. That’s why we have analytics: to counter BS narratives. Southgate’s tactical adjustments have not resulted in more scoring chances if measured by xG.

FINAL TAKE: There is another narrative that a previously anxious England side is now carefree to play at their best now that they reached the finals. I don’t buy it. I think the pressure remains squarely on a Three Lions side that has not won a major championship in 55 years — and this will be their first major tournament final outside their home soil in their history. La Roja wants to win — but they have three European championships and a recent World Cup title under their belts. In a battle of wills and resolve, La Roja will have more confidence (along with better underlying numbers). 25* Euro 2024 Match of the Year with Spain (225602) with the goal-line versus England (225601), Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Uruguay (235757) minus the goal-line versus Canada (235758) in the Third Place consolation match in the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Uruguay (W3-D1-L1) lost their Semifinal match with Colombia by a 1-0 score on Wednesday. Canada (W1-D2-L2) comes off a 2-0 loss to Argentina in their Semifinal match on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE URUGUAY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: It has been a wildly successful tournament for Canada to reach the Semifinals after new manager Jesse Marsch had only overseen two friendlies in June since taking over. Les Rouges are on the rise after qualifying and competing in the 2022 World Cup — but they did lose all three of their matches. But while Canada has demonstrated that they can handle mid-level national teams, they have not had success against the elite teams in the world. They lost to Argentina twice in this tournament with the underlying metrics indicating they were thoroughly outclassed in both matches. In their opening Group Stage match against La Albiceleste, the Canucks surrendered 2.9 expected Goals (xG) and got beaten by 1.7 net xG in a 2-0 loss. In the rematch on Tuesday. Argentina generated 2.1 xG and won the xG battle by 1.3 xG in that 2-0 triumph. Certainly, there is no shame in losing to the number one ranked team in the world according to FIFA and current ELO Ratings — and La Albiceleste is the reigning 2022 World Cup and 2021 Copa America champions. But Canada’s other results in this event are a little underwhelming in hindsight. Their only victory was against Peru to take second place in Group A — and they had a man advantage for 31 minutes in that match after a red card was issued in the 59th minute. They settled for a 1-1 draw against a Chile side that had been anemic in their attack before that match. In their Quarterfinals match against Venezuela, they survived a penalty kick shootout by a 4-3 margin. Les Rouges have only scored two goals in this event — and they are without one of their better offensive players after Inter Milan’s Tajon Buchanan broke his tibia in training earlier this month. And while they have only surrendered five goals, their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) rises to 7.3. While they are playing better than their early friendlies last month under Marsch, their 4-0 loss to the Netherlands may be a harbinger of things to come tonight. Uruguay was undermanned in their back line in their Semifinal match against Colombia. Barcelona center-back Ronald Aruajo suffered an injury in their victory against Brazil that will keep him out for up to eight weeks. Nahitan Nandez was suspended for that match as well due to yellow cards. He returns for this match — and La Celeste have a capable substitute in Atletico Madrid’s Gimenez to play for Aruajo so they are in better shape for this match. Uruguay should be fired up for this match after the ugly post-match scuffles with both Colombia and some fans in the seats. They think they were defending family members attending the game — and manager Marcelo Bielsa blasted both CONMEBOL and US soccer for failure to meet basic standards and practices for this event. They are angry — so they can take their frustrations out on Canada. This is a team that handed Argentina their most recent loss in late 2023. There was a substantial risk that Darwin Nunez would get suspended for this match after he went into the crowd during the chaos after Wednesday’s match but the Liverpool forward is free to take the pitch tonight. Uruguay has scored nine goals in their five matches. They have also been very tough to score on by giving up only two goals — and they blanked mighty Brazil in that heavyweight Quarterfinals match. Their xGA in their five matches is an impressive 3.0.

FINAL TAKE: This is an interesting clash in managers since Marsch took over at Leeds United after Bielsa got sacked after a four-year run with the English Premier League side in 2022. Bielsa is a legendary manager who deploys an aggressive high press with vertical attacking tactics. They are also one of the most physical teams in the world. Marsch has Canada counter-attacking — but if and when they fall behind in this match, their sense of urgency should create more scoring opportunities for La Celeste. 25* Copa America Match of the Year with Uruguay (235757) minus the goal-line versus Canada (235758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: England (W2-D3-L0) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament with their 5-3 victory in a penalty shootout against Switzerland after that match remained unresolved in a 1-1 score after 120 minutes last Saturday. The Netherlands (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-1 victory against Turkey in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Signal Iduna park in Dortmund, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England only managed 0.6 expected Goals (xG) against Switzerland which may be a surprise to those listening to Landon Donovan’s commentary of the match who lauded the Three Lions supposed new found aggressiveness despite their few shots on target. While less reliance on the aging Harry Kane was probably a step in the right direction, opponents are quickly double-teaming Arsenal’s Bukayo  Saka when he gets the ball on the right wing. In hindsight, less reliance on Kane and more development of the attack around Saka, Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham, and Manchester City’s Phil Foden (who Pep Guardiola thought was the best player in the English Premier League) would probably be preferable tactics — but it is hard for these veteran national team managers to move off the reliable strikers on their squads given the limited training time they have. The dirty little secret regarding Southgate is that learned early on in his tenure as England’s national coach in 2016 that he could not trust the back line. His conservative tactics developed from that conclusion — he is content to win low-scoring affairs where perhaps his attacking talent can steal a game late. The Three Lions have not allowed more than one goal in any of their five matches in this event. They have surrendered only 3.59 expected Goals (xG) in regulation time in their five matches. England is particularly effective in defense in transition with their midfielders quickly rolling back and against set pieces. Those are areas where the Dutch score most of their goals. But the result of these conservative tactics is a lackluster attack. The Three Lions have scored one goal or less in four of their five matches in this tournament. Even worse, they have generated less than 1.0 xG in four of their five contests. They have only 3.8 xG in regulation time in their five matches at this tournament. Here comes the Netherlands who only managed 1.0 xG against a suspect Turkish defense that had surrendered at least 1.4 xG in their previous four matches. The Crescent-Stars are not a good defensive side — but they still frustrated the Dutch with their attempt to press. The Oranje have talent — but it may be the skill of their players that overcome the outdated tactical strategies of manager Ronald Koeman. After trailing by a 1-0 score, the Dutch rallied from a goal on a set piece before Turkey surrendered an own-goal in the 76th minute. The Netherlands have not generated more than 1.4 xG in three of their five matches. And it has been a relatively easy schedule for the Oranje. They scored two goals against Poland before getting blanked against France. They scored two goals in a loss against an aggressive Austria team before a dream Round of 16 draw against Romania which they beat, 3-0. The defense has been solid. Outside the match against the Austrians, they have had two clean sheets and held those two other opponents to just one goal.

FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, these are two cautious teams who are loath to make mistakes now competing against a mirror image of themselves. Since their opening match against Portugal, the Netherlands have managed 0.6 xG or less in the first half of their last four matches. Both of these managers want this match to be the first one to score wins. And if this game gets tied at 1-1, we should survive regulation time (and settle for the push) with both managers contest for extra time where perhaps they can create Big Chance scoring opportunities. 25* Euro 2024 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D2-L1) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament by beating Venezuela by a 4-3 mark on penalty kicks after a 1-1 result in regulation time on Friday. Argentina (W3-D1-L0) defeated Ecuador in a shootout by a 4-2 margin after a 1-1 score in regulation on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada only generated 0.9 expected Goals (xG) against a Venezuela side that allowed 2.8 xG to a struggling Mexico team in the Group Stage of this tournament. Les Rouges have scored only two goals in their four matches at this event. And while they have generated 5.8 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will continue to be without Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing better and better defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next five matches. Only Argentina and now Venezuela has scored on them in this tournament. They have given up only three goals in their last five matches — and they have conceded just once in their last three contests. Argentina took a 1-0 lead in the 36th minute against Ecuador last Thursday — but they only managed 0.8 xG against La Tri who had surrendered at least 1.0 xG in two of their three Group Stage matches. And when La Albiceleste conceded a goal in the first minute of stoppage time, it was the first goal scored against them in their four matches in this tournament. But since winning the 2022 World Cup, only three sides have generated at least 1.0 xG against them. These two teams faced off in their opening match in Group A play with Argentina winning by a 2-0 score. It was a high-event match with 29 combined shots by both teams. Canada did find success in frustrating La Albiceleste with their pressing in the mid-block which took away the middle for Argentina. After a scoreless first half, Argentina scored in the 49th minute which put Les Rouges in an urgent situation. La Albiceleste scored their second goal in the 88th minute.

FINAL TAKE: Canada scored a goal in the first half for the first time against Venezuela across all competitions in 2024. They have still not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. Canada manager Jesse Marsch would love to take his chances in a shootout. His team is playing better defensively than they were in their previous match against Argentina on June 20th. He may elect his team to play more cautiously this time around and bank on the speed of midfielders Alphonso Davies or Jonathan David getting scoring opportunities in transition. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Uruguay (235746) with the goal-line versus Brazil (235745) in the Quarterfinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Uruguay (W3-D0-L0) finished Group Stage play with three straight victories after their 1-0 victory against the USMN on Monday. Brazil (W1-D2-L0) finished in second place in Group D after their 1-1 draw with Colombia on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE URUGUAY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Uruguay has been dominant so far in this tournament. La Celeste has scored nine goals — and they have surrendered just one time in a 3-1 win against Panama. They have now won 10 of their 15 matches played under Marco Bielsa who is widely considered one of the most influential managers in the world. Bielsa is a mastermind of aggressive high-press tactics that combine with a vertical that results in constant pressure on their opponents. It is a style that can be very difficult to prepare against — especially against teams who like to play on the front foot. When Bielsa was at Leeds United in the English Premier League from 2018-2022, his club would often give Pep Guardiola and Manchester City fits. While that club struggled with their defense in the English top flight, Uruguay has been outstanding limiting opponent chances in this tournament. La Celeste has given up only 1.2 expected Goals (xG) in their three matches — and no opponent generated more than 0.6 xG against them. Bielsa has a talented roster at his disposal with players like Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez at forward and Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde in the midfield. Uruguay are no strangers to high expectations at this event either — they have won the Copa America 15 times. Brazil has looked a bit listless in this tournament with two draws including a surprising result against a weak and rebuilding Costa Rica side. The Selacao scored four goals against Paraguay — but they have only scored one additional goal in their other two matches against Colombia and Costa Rica. They managed only 0.3 xG against Colombia on Tuesday while losing the xG battle by giving up 1.4 xG. Quite surprisingly, manager Dorival Junior played his best starting XI in that match despite Costa Rica needing to win and overcome a -6 net-goal differential to overtake them for the second qualifying spot in the Quarterfinals. That decision proved costly when Vinicius Junior got flagged with his second yellow card in this event. Now Brazil will be without the suspended Real Madrid man for this match. This is devastating — the striker has emerged as one of the very best players in the world. Frankly, the Selecao has been shaky since Junior took over in January. While they have not lost any matches under his guidance, they have settled for four draws in their seven matches against international competition. And while Brazil has only allowed two goals in their three matches, their defense was vulnerable in the build-up to this event. They allowed six goals in their final three friendlies with Spain scoring three times against them and a struggling Mexico side scoring another two goals.

FINAL TAKE: These two sides last met in October of last year in a World Cup qualifying match which Uruguay won by a 2-0 score. Bielsa was La Celeste’s manager for that match — and he later oversaw a 2-0 victory against Argentina in December. Uruguay passed out of the mid-block and punished the reigning World Cup champions in transition by deploying the Bielsa system. La Celeste has a great chance to beat Brazil again — especially since they are missing Junior. We can live with a push if the match goes to a shootout — I see the chances of Brazil winning in regulation time as low. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Uruguay (235746) with the goal-line versus Brazil (235745). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: Turkey (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 2-1 victory against Austria on Tuesday. The Netherlands (W2-D1-L1) advanced from the Round of 16 with a 3-0 victory against Romania on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: If styles dictate fights, the tactics of Turkish manager Vincenzo Mantella are instigating higher-scoring matches. The Crescent-Stars are playing on the front foot in this tournament — and it makes sense given the young talent at Mantella’s disposal. Two 19-year-olds, Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenas Yildiz, played a significant role in their victory against Austria — and now they get their captain back after Inter Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu was suspected for that match due to yellow cards. Turkey has scored seven goals in their four matches. Mantella unleashed Guler against the Austrians as he was given the freedom to roam and potentially attack when facing a press. But this young team has played loose when it comes to over-aggressiveness — and this has led to yellow cards and plenty of scoring chances for their opponents. The Crescent-Stars have been whistled for 18 yellow cards already which is the second most in the history of this event. They have also surrendered six goals — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) sits at 8.0. Austria generated 3.1 expected Goals (xG) against them — but not for the outstanding goalkeeping of Mert Gunok, Turkey gives up a few more goals in that match. The Crescent-Stars have allowed 1.4 xGA in each of their four matches — and that included a match with Czechia where they gave up 1.6 xGA despite having a man-advantage from a red card issues to the Czechs in the 20th minute. Mantella has proven himself a great tactician — so I expect Turkey to score. They build possession out of the back — and they are then willing to attack vertically with long balls over the top. But they are getting beaten by the opponent’s press — and their aggressiveness risks perhaps getting a man sent off or, even worse, penalty kicks. That might be a ticking time bomb for them. The Netherlands have scored seven goals in their four matches. Against Romania, they generated 50 touches inside the Romanian area which broke a national team record for them at this event. The Oranje have scoring talent — Atletico Madrid’s Memphis Depay, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo, Borussia Dortmund’s Donyell Malek, and Liverpool center-back Virgil Van Dijk who can play up the pitch. The tactics of manager Ronald Koeman have been criticized as too passive and vanilla — but the individual talent on the pitch has still been able to shine (perhaps Koeman is crazy like a fox in this regard?). The Netherlands has a great chance to score multiple goals against this suspect Turkish backline. But they can get caught up in high-scoring affairs as evidenced by their 3-2 loss to the Austria team that the Crescent-Stars just beat.

FINAL TAKE: I’ll send out a second cliche — game scripts play a huge role regarding the over/under in international soccer, especially in the Knockout Stage. All four of Turkey’s matches have seen a goal scored in the first 30 minutes -- and in the Quarterfinals, and early goal places the losing side in an urgent situation. Each of the Crescent-Stars matches have seen at least 3.45 combined expected Goals. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three scored in regulation time. 25* Euro 2024 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Switzerland (225585) plus the goal-line versus England (225586) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W2-D2-L0) advanced from the Round of 16 with their 2-0 victory against Italy last Saturday. England (W1-D3-L0) needed extra time to beat Slovakia by a 2-1 score in their Round of 16 match on Sunday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE SWITZERLAND PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: England was very fortunate to advance to the Quarterfinals. They surrendered a goal in the 25th minute and got bailed out in the fifth minute of stoppage time when Jude Bellingham leveled the score with his goal to force the 30-minute extra period. Harry Kane scored in the first minute of that session and the Three Lions held on for the win. England has now failed to defeat three straight opponents in 90 minutes. After only beating Serbia by a 1-0 score, they settled for draws in the Group Stage against Denmark and Slovenia before their match with Slovakia. Facing the Swiss is a big step up in competition. The underlying metrics do not tell a better story. The Three Lions have only scored four goals in their 390 minutes of play — and their expected goals (xG) drop to 3.7. Despite some of the best players in the English Premier League, they lack cohesion in their attack. Kane now plays for Bayern Munich after years of service for Tottenham — he is the team’s striker. His style of play may simply not match the emerging superstar who is Bellingham out of the midfield or Phil Foden who has developed into a star of his own with Manchester City. Manager Gareth Southgate has not found the right plan to unlock this English attack through the middle of the pitch. It simply might be a chemistry issue. And frankly, the enthusiasm regarding the talent level on the rest of the roster may speak more with the familiarity of the EPL regulars than it does talent level in the summer of 2024. The Three Lions have been a defensive first squad under Southgate — but I have always suspected that was his tactical decision from not having elite players on the back line. England has only given up two goals — but their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is 3.4. They lost the xG battle to Slovakia by a 2.2 to 1.5 margin. They are lacking Luke Shaw on their back line due to injury coming into this event (and that might not be so bad) — but the suspension of Crystal Palace center-back Marc Guehl due to yellow cards is impactful. Now here comes a confident and veteran Switzerland side that just dethroned the reigning European Champions from 2021. That win was legitimate as they won the xG battle against the Italians by a 1.2 to 0.7 margin. This team also managed a 1-1 draw with the host nation Germany in the Group Stage who were one of the pre-tournament favorites. Those two Die Nati opponents would likely beat all four of the opponents England has played. One of the impressive aspects of this Switzerland team is their tactical diversity. They can play on the front foot and dictate the pace against weaker opponents — but they are also comfortable in a defensive shape and counter-attacking in transition. This is how they frustrated Germany. Against Italy, they only held possession in 35% of the match — but they were confident and efficient when they had the ball against the strong defensive side. They will play defensively against the Three Lions as well — and England struggled against the Slovakia defensive press last Sunday.

FINAL TAKE: Even if Switzerland falls behind, they can play on their front foot to dictate the pace. They are unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions — and they are unbeaten in their last four Knockout Stage matches in the Euro with two losses coming in extra time (and we win this play at +0.5 goals if the match goes to extra time). Furthermore, Die Nati has played the most draws in this tournament since 2016 — so a tie score after 90 minutes is highly likely. England has all the pressure in this match — and Southgate is on the hot seat. The Three Lions did finish in second place in the Euro 2020 (played in 2021 after the pandemic) — but they were the host nation. Their success in major tournaments outside of England remains underwhelming after their Quarterfinals loss to France in the 2022 World Cup. 25* Euro 2024 Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Switzerland (225585) plus the goal-line versus England (225586). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738) in the Quarterfinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D1-L1) claimed second place in Group A after their 0-0 draw with Chile on Saturday. Venezuela (W3-D0-L0) clinched first place in Group B with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada has only scored one goal in this tournament. And while they have generated 4.1 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will miss Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing good defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next four matches. Only Argentina has scored on them in this tournament. After that 2-0 loss, the Canucks have only given up 1.2 xG in their last two matches. Chile managed just 0.5 xG on Saturday. Venezuela scored three goals on 2.0 xG to complete their Group Stage — but that Reggae Boyz team was mentally checked after being eliminated from the Knockout Stage and playing for a lame-duck manager. They have scored six goals in this event — but two of those goals came with a man-advantage in the second half against Ecuador after getting that edge in the 22nd minute in the first half. La Vinotinto has only 4.8 xG relative to their six goals — and the context in two of their matches needs to be considered. They only had 1.2 xG when they played Mexico. But the defense has been solid — they have only conceded one goal in their last four matches across all competitions. They are getting outstanding goalkeeping from the veteran Rafael Romo who has only given up that one goal despite a 3.6 post-shot expected goals allowed projection. Venezuela is missing a key player as well — winger Darwin Machis who plays professionally for Capiz is suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card against Jamaica last week.

FINAL TAKE: Canada has not scored a goal in the first half in 2024 across all competitions — but they have not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726) in the Group Stage of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D0-L0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals after their 3-0 victory against Costa Rica on Friday. Brazil (W1-D1-L0) won their first match in this event with a 4-1 victory against Paraguay on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is going to be a lower-scoring match with both sides resting or not risking a second yellow card in this contest. Colombia is already in with their two victories — and Brazil is all but in with only miraculous results from Costa Rica putting their second-place finish in Group D in doubt. The Selecao have a +3 net goal differential in their first two matches after settling for a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica in their opening match. Costa Rica now has a -3 net goal differential after their three-goal loss to Colombia — so they would have to overcome a six-goal deficit to Brazil in their potential victory against Paraguay. By the way, Paraguay is a -0.5 goal-line favorite in that match despite having lost their first two matches. Even if the Selecao were to lose tonight by a surprising 3-0 score, Costa Rica would still need to score at least three goals tonight. Costa Rica has registered a mere 0.1 expected goals in their two matches combined — and they have yet to register a shot on target in this tournament. Brazil manager Dorival Junior can rest easy. And he certainly does not want to risk Real Madrid star forward Vinicius Junior taking the pitch tonight since he risks a suspension for the Quarterfinals if he receives a second yellow card tonight. As it is, the Brazilian attack looked sluggish against Costa Rica in that scoreless match. They did get going against Paraguay finally after going scoreless in those first 30 minutes — but that may speak more to the quality of the Paraguayan defense. The good news for the Selecao is that their defense has been quite good in this tournament after some shaky results against Spain and Mexico in friendlies earlier this year. In their last friendly on June 12th against the United States, they held the Stars and Stripes to one goal. In their two Copa America matches, they have given up only 0.9 expected goals. Colombia is likely to rest players as well since little is at stake — so Liverpool striker Luis Diaz, forward Jhon Cordoba with a yellow card in hand, and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez who suffered a knock against Costa Rica are likely to play. Los Cafeteros have scored five times in this tournament — but their expected goals fall to 3.6 xG. Colombia is a strong defensive club that has conceded only one goal in this event — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 0.9. They have not conceded a goal in six straight matches across all competitions since playing Mexico in a friendly on December 16th. They have not allowed more than one goal in five of those last six matches.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-event match between these two sides. There have been only four combined goals between these teams in their last three clashes. The last time these teams met, Colombia won by a 2-0 score on November 16th last year in a World Cup 2026 qualifying event where both teams were starting their A-teams — and that was a 1-0 game before Los Cafeteros scored twice in the final 15 minutes. In their two previous matches in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers, only one goal was scored. 25* Copa America Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Panama (235717) minus the goal-line versus Bolivia (235718) in the Group Stage of the Copa America 2024. THE SITUATION: Panama (W1-D0-L1) rebounded from their 3-1 loss to Uruguay with a 2-1 victory against the US Men’s National Team on Thursday. Bolivia (W0-D0-L2) remained pointless in this tournament after a 5-0 loss to Uruguay on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE PANAMA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Panama goes into this match tied with the United States with three points — but their -1 net goal differential places them behind the Stars and Stripes' +1 net goal differential. The Canal Men need to score goals tonight in case the USMNT beat Uruguay tonight. Panama needs a better result than Team USA — so a win tonight combined with a Uruguay-USA draw gets them through into the Knockout Stage. So manager Thomas Christiansen will have his team playing to win and running up the score if possible. Their upset victory against the Americans came with the caveat of them playing against ten men after Timothy Weah was issued a red card in the 18th minute. And one of their best players, Adalberto Carrasquilla, was issued a red card in the 88th minute which leaves him suspended for this match. But Los Canaleros still have plenty of talent that can step up. Jose Fajardo and Ismael Diaz lead the attack after playing key roles in their reaching the Gold Cup Finals last summer before they lost 1-0 to Mexico in the Finals — and that run a year ago including beating the United States on American soil in the Semifinals via penalty kicks. And while Panama has surrendered four goals (including three to a Uruguay team that upset the reigning World Cup champion Argentina by a 2-0 score late last year), the expected goals allowed (xGA) is only 2.6. Bolivia has looked listless on both sides of the pitch in this tournament. La Verde has managed just 0.3 expected goals (xG) in their two matches. They have scored only one goal in their last five matches across all competitions. The backline has been battered by allowing seven goals in this tournament — and their xGA in those two matches is only slightly better at 5.4. Bolivia has lost four matches in a row by two or more goals — and they have been outscored by 12 goals in those four matches.

FINAL TAKE: Panama has won all four of their matches against Bolivia with the last meeting being a 2-1 victory against them in the 2016 Copa America. The Canal Men should win this match — so our worst-case scenario is most likely a push. But Los Canaleros will be motivated — and are certainly capable — to score multiple goals against the La Verde’s shaky defense. 25* Copa America Group C Match of the Year with Panama (235717) minus the goal-line versus Bolivia (235718). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Germany (225550) minus the goal-line versus Denmark (225549) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage in the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: Germany (W2-D1-L0) took first place in Group A after their 1-1 draw against Switzerland last  Sunday. Denmark (W0-D3-L0) took second place in Group C after a 0-0 draw with Serbia last Tuesday. This match is being played on German soil at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.

REASONS TO TAKE GERMANY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Germans are highly motivated in this tournament as the host nation — and they have something to prove after failing to reach the Knockout Stage of the last two World Cups. Die Mannschaft dominated their first two matches by scoring five goals in their four-goal victory against Scotland before a 2-0 win against Hungary. They only needed a draw to clinch first place in Group A against the Swiss — and they gave up a counter-attacking goal in transition before Niclas Fullkrug came off the bench to net the equalizer in the second minute of stoppage time. Germany did win the expected goals (xG) battle in that match by a 1.6-0.6 margin. The Germans' defensive play has been outstanding by allowing only two goals on just 1.8 expected Goals Allowed (xGA). Manager Julian Naglesmann has a good mix of wily veterans and up-and-coming young talent. The core of the team comes from Bayern Munich starting with goalie Manuel Neuer — with defender Joshua Kimmich and forward Leroy Sane two of the notables joining him. Real Madrid’s Toni Kroos and Barcelona’s Ilkay Gundogan (formerly of Manchester City) establish the foundation in the midfield. Arsenal’s Kai Havertz heads the attack with Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala helping out as an attacking midfielder — they are two of the rising stars for the national team. I am not in love with some absences at center back. Jonathan Tan is suspended after drawing a second yellow card and Antonio Rudiger is still in training after helping Real Madrid win the Champions League last month. But this German roster has depth thanks to the quality in the ranks of the Bundesliga — and they face a Denmark team that has been meager in their attack. The Scandinavians have only scored twice in their three matches. They only generated 0.7 xG in their nil-nil draw with Serbia — and they have not put up more than 0.8 xG in their last two matches. Their two forwards, Rasmus Hojlund and Jonas Wind have combined for only seven shots in their three matches. The attack has been too reliant on midfielder Christian Eriksen — and while it is a great story that he is playing well in this Euro after his scary cardiac arrest in the  2020 Euro (played in 2021 because of the pandemic), he is past his prime and operates better as a complementary attacking piece. It is telling that 43% of the Red and Whites shots have been outside the box. And while Switzerland may have written the blueprint as to how to give the Germans trouble, Denmark is not a side positioned to play back before counter-attacking in transition. The Danes have not even registered a shot from a counter attack in this tournament. The Red and Whites are not at full strength either after Sporting Lisbon’s Morten Hjulmand got suspended for this match after drawing his second yellow card. The loss of the midfielder is more impactful for the Danes since they lack the depth of Germany.

FINAL TAKE: Denmark is a middling side with professional players but lacks elite talent. They qualified for the Knockout Stage at the Euro Championships for a second straight tournament which is the first time they accomplished that feat. But after settling for three draws in the low-scoring Group C with four national teams seemingly content to whittle away a point per match, they now have to contend with one of the most dynamic attacks in Europe. Germany is unbeaten in their seven matches in 2024 with five victories. They should overwhelm the Scandinavians. 25* Euro 2024 Match of the Month with Germany (225550) minus the goal-line versus Denmark (225549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202) in the UEFA Champions League Final. THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund reached the Champions League Final with their 2-0 aggregate victory against Paris Saint-Gemain last month. Real Madrid outlasted Manchester City with their 4-3 aggregate victory in the Semifinals. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium in London, England.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tactics make fights -- and both of these sides prefer to play in a defensive midblock position. They both prefer to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of these head coaches is going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti will likely have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top can create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach will be to goad  Dortmund into a country attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. This will be a cagey affair -- and I don't think the approach from either side changes if they give up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal will be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent. Both of these sides see their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they gave up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals. eal Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also has the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022.

FINAL TAKE: Only six combined goals have been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four have seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Unde 2.UCL Finals combined goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid has won eight of their last ten matches after a 3-0 victory at home against Cadiz in La Liga action on May 4th. Bayern Munich is winless in their last two matches after a 3-1 loss at Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday. These two settled for a 2-2 draw in Munich in their first-leg match last Tuesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich blew the opportunity to take a one-goal lead into this second match by fouling Vinicius Junior inside the box which gave him the chance to score his second goal of the match with a penalty kick at the 83rd minute. The Bavarians have been more effective at home where they have lost only twice in the Bundesliga — but they have five losses on the road in domestic play. In the Champions League, Bayern Munich lost at Lazio by a 1-0 score in the Round of 16 — and they lost at Manchester City by a 3-0 score in the Group Stage. They have won only twice in their last nine matches on the road across all competitions with losses during that span — and they do not have a clean sheet on the road in 2024. They have surrendered two or more goals in eight of their last ten matches on the road. Domestically, it has been a disappointing season with Bayer Leverkusen already taking the title — the Bavarians are 15 points behind in second place. Manage Thomas Tuchel announced in February that he will not return to the club. Bayern Munich has demonstrated that is foolish to discount proud teams with talent in European competition — they outclassed Arsenal in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. But something is lacking. This club is not as elite in the buildup as past teams. They struggle in transition defense. Injuries have decimated their backline. They are without Raphael Guerreiro and Dayot Upamecano — and Eric Dier along with Mattias de Ligt are questionable with knocks. Kim Min-Jae is a liability at center back and his two mistakes last week led directly to Los Blancos’ two goals. The Bavarians have struggled against top-tier talent. They were outclassed by a 3-0 score in their showdown against Bayer Leverkusen in February. They lost 2-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund (who advanced to the finals of this tournament yesterday). And they lost to a Man City squad that Real Madrid outlasted in the Quarterfinals of this event last month. Los Blancos dealt with injuries in the first half of the season — and they were giving up 1.12 expected goals (xGA) in La Liga going into 2024. But since January 1st, Real Madrid is holding their domestic opponents to just 0.83 xGA. They have clinched another La Liga title. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is a master in adapting his tactics to his opponent — and he has found the identity of this squad which plays at its best in a passive mid-block defensive approach that attacks in transition. Real Madrid is very tough to beat at home at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu where they have won 15 of their 17 domestic matches at home with no losses. Since January 1st, they have won eight of their nine home matches in La Liga while generating 2.74 expected goals (xG) and surrendering just 0.82 xGA. In their last 12 matches at home in the Champions League, they are unbeaten with nine victories. They get David Alaba back for this match after he was suspended for last week’s contest. 

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich has not registered a clean sheet in their last 16 matches against Real Madrid. They are winless in their nine previous contests against teams managed by Ancelotti with nine losses and zero clean sheets. The legendary Ancelotti looks to take his sixth team to the Champions League final — and Los Blancos are striving to win their 15th European title. Real Madrid lost in the final to Man City last year — they will be confident this afternoon that they are destined to return. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205) in the first-leg of the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Arsenal advanced from the Round of 16 in this tournament by avenging a 1-0 loss at Porto with a 1-0 victory at home against them which forced a penalty kick resolution which the Gunners won. Bayern Munich rallied from a 1-0 loss in the first leg against Porto with a 3-0 victory at home against them in the second leg.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The  Gunners won for the fifth time across six competitions with a 3-0 victory against Brighton and Hove Albion in the English Premier League. Arsenal has generated four straight clean sheets in all competitions. They are in a tie with Liverpool for first place in the EPL in what is shaping up to be the closest finish in the English top flight in years with Manchester City just one point behind them both. This team exorcised some demons against a defensive-minded Porto side by winning in the knockout stage of this tournament for the first time in their last eight appearances in the Round of 16. Under manager Mikel Arteta, this team plays outstanding defense that has not allowed an opponent across all competitions to generate more than 1.5 expected goals. At home at the Emirates Stadium, the Gunners have won six straight games across all competitions while scoring 17 goals and only conceding three times during that run. Arsenal is also undefeated in their four home matches in the Champions League this season where they have scored 13 goals and have yet to concede a goal. For Bayern Munich, the season looks lost with them 16 points behind Bayer Leverkusen. Manager Thomas Tuchel already declared in February that he would not return to the squad next season. They have lost two matches in a row after blowing a 2-0 lead on Saturday in a 3-2 loss at Heidenheim in Bundesliga action. The Bavarians have only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches across all competitions. Injuries have played a role — but rumors of internal strife in the locker room and relating to Tuchel seem to have impacted the cohesion of this team. And while this team has been capable of bullying lesser opponents, they have struggled against the better teams in Germany and Europe. Bayern Munich has been vulnerable in transition on defense — and they lack an elite build-up with the ball despite being a possession team.

FINAL TAKE: Arteta is likely to take a page from Bayer Leverkusen’s tactical book against Bayern Munich from their match on February 10th. Leverkusen surprised with a defensive 5-3-2 formation that set them up to counterattack the vulnerable Bavarians' transition defense. Not only did they win by a 3-0 score but they held Bayern Munich to just 0.6 expected goals. Arsenal thrives versus high-pressing teams like the Bavarians — and Arteta demonstrated that he is content to play out of possession last month against Manchester City when they held them to under 1.0 expected goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:45 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W19-D5-L3) has won 13 of their last 14 matches across all competitions after their 3-1 victory at home against Manchester United in the English Premier League last Sunday. Liverpool has won seven matches in a row across all competitions including their 1-0 victory at Nottingham in the EPL last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: In the three-way race between these two clubs along with Arsenal to win the EPL title, Liverpool is likely the team whose prospects are dimmest moving forward. Granted, manager Jurgen Klopp is doing a great job with the Reds after they dropped to fifth place in the table after a disappointing 2022-23 campaign. But the Pool Boys have not been tested as much as those two other teams given their failure to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. Their 3-1 loss at Arsenal in the EPL action on February 4th is likely telling regarding where this club is relative to the elite squads in Europe. Injuries are not helping their cause in this one. Klopp is without eight players including Trent Alexander-Arnold who was thriving in a new role for the squad playing up as a midfielder rather than his defensive back role. The absences of midfielders Thiago Alcantara and Diogo Jota will also hurt in this showdown. Their outstanding keeper Alisson is also on the shelf — but they have been getting surprisingly good play from backup goaltender          Caoihin Kelleher — although this matchup is a huge challenge for him now. At least Mohamed Salah is back after getting injured during the African Cup in January — but his fitness is in question after playing his first match in a month on Thursday. Liverpool plays this match at a significant situational disadvantage having to travel back from the Czech Republic after a 5-1 victory at Sparta Prague on Thursday in the second-tier (relative to the Champions League) Europe League competition. The Reds have positional weaknesses at left wing and at right defensive back. And while they have only lost one match at home at Anfield in EPL action in their last  57 matches since fans returned post-COVID, their inability to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last nine at home across all competitions raises a red flag for this showdown. Finally, the deeper metrics indicate that the Pool Boys are overachieving in league play. While they have registered 63 points, the expected points deriving from expected goals data drops to just 53.03 points. The metrics suggest that they have been rather fortunate in goal suppression as they have given up only 25 goals despite a 33.78 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Now here comes Man City who lead the EPL with 31.95 expected goals on the road despite playing one less match than Liverpool and Arsenal. Now at their healthiest as they have been all season, the Citizens have scored 12 combined goals in their last three matches after their 3-1 triumph over FC Copenhagen in the Champions League on Wednesday. Kevin DeBruyne missed the first half of the season and has only returned to the pitch in mid-January. Erling Haaland also missed time in December and January. But since the Club World Cup in December, the reigning EPL and Champions League winners are clicking on all cylinders — and they have won ten straight matches on the road in all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: At full strength, Man City remains the best club in the world — and now they face a shorthanded Liverpool squad in a crucial match in the EPL title race. Manager Pep Guardiola has fared well in his tenure with the Citizens when facing Klopp. Since 2017, Man City has a W5-D3-L1 mark in the EPL against the Reds. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with  Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358) in the consolation third-place match in the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Australia (W3-D2-L1) comes off a 3-1 loss to England in their Semifinal match in this tournament on Wednesday morning. Sweden (W4-D1-L1)      lost to Spain in a 2-1 heartbreaker in their Semifinals match Tuesday morning. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Brisbane Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia will be highly motivated to win this match in front of their rabid home fans who have wildly supported their team in this tournament. While reaching the finals would have capped a magical run, winning the third-place bronze trophy will be very rewarding to manager Tony Gustavsson’s team while representing their best finish in a World Cup, men or women. Gustavsson also has his star player back in the mix with Sam Kerr back on the pitch. After missing most of this World Cup, she returned in the match against England and scored their lone goal in the 63rd minute. Kerr’s supporters can make a compelling case that she is the best women’s player in the world. She jumpstarts a Matildas’ attack that scores 10 goals in their six matches. With Kerr back and the excitement of the home crowd, I expect Australia to play aggressively on the front foot. They scored four times with a potent 2.6 expected goals (xG) mark against a quality Canadian team in the Group Stage that won the Gold Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Matildas generated at least 1.1 xG in all six of their matches in this event. But Australia can leaky with their defense. After Kerr evened the score at 1-1, they then conceded two goals in the next 18 minutes to let that game slip out of their hands. While they had four clean sheets overall, the three goals they let Nigeria score against them illustrates their vulnerability in the back end. Sweden is a team that is comfortable in adapting their tactics to their opponent. They outlasted the United States in the shootout in the Round of 16 after 120 minutes of scoreless play. But after Spain broke the scoreless deadlock in the 81st minute in the Semifinals, they pressed the accelerator to even the score seven minutes later — all before conceding the game-winning goal to La Roja two minutes later. Sweden has generated at least 2.0 xG in four of their six matches including against a very good Japanese side. But they allowed 1.2 xG in four of their six matches — and the US, Japan, and Spain combined to create 4.6 expected goals against them in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: Consolation matches tend to be higher-scoring affairs since there is not as much pressure regarding winning or losing the match. Parking the bus in the attempt to grind out a third-place trophy is no fun for anyone. In the eight third-place matches in the Women’s World Cup, five of these contests saw three or more combined goals. Sweden will be playing in their fourth third-place match at a Women’s World Cup — but they have won all three of those matches while scoring a combined nine goals in those contests. Manager Peter Gerhardsson intends to keep his same starting XI — so it will be their A-team facing an energized Australian side. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with a 1-0 victory against Jamaica in their Round of 16 match on Monday. England (W3-D1-L0) survived a 0-0 draw with Nigeria by taking that match via a 4-2 margin in penalty kicks in their Round of 16 Knockout Stage match on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE COLOMBIA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had the Under in England’s scoreless match with the Nigeria Super Falcons. The Lionesses actually lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 0.9 to 1.2 margin. They were very fortunate to advance when considering that midfielder Lauren James drew a red card in the 87th minute. Not only did England have to fend off the Nigerian women for 33+ minutes before reaching the shootout, but they will now be without James in their next two matches as she serves her suspension. Her overreaction demonstrated the pressure on this team who won last year’s Euro Championship despite losing the xG battle in many of those contests including in the finals against Germany. England had the advantage of playing that tournament on home soil which I think makes them a bit overvalued now. Even worse, the loss of James continues the slow drip of talent loss from this side’s ideal starting XI. They are already playing this tournament without Leah Williamson who is their best defender. They are also without striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby. Now they lose James who has been their leading scoring in this event with three goals. The Lionesses have scored only eight times in their four matches — and their expected goals in those four matches drop to 7.2 xG. Furthermore, six of their eight goals were scored in their final Group Stage match against China which was a skewed result. Because England scored early in that match, the Chinese women had to break out of their preferred defensive posture to play aggressively since they needed a positive result to advance to the Knockout Stage. Instead, the Lionesses were able to exploit this change of tactics and score five more times — despite only generating 2.6 xG for the match. And while England has only allowed one goal on a penalty kick in this tournament, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is 3.1. Now here comes Colombia playing with house money after reaching the Quarterfinals of a Women’s World Cup for the first time in their history. Las Chicas Ponderosas are a talented side from a nation that takes their soccer very seriously. This is their second appearance in the Knockout Stage after losing to the United States in the Round of 16 in 2015. We had Jamaica on Monday against them —  and Colombia did lose the xG battle by a 1.2-0.9 margin. But it is fair to say they were the better side in the first half before taking the lead in the 51st minute from a skillful goal from Catalina Usme. And this group was resilient in holding off the Reggae Girlz in the later stages of that match. Jamaica had not conceded a goal in this tournament before that Usme goal — and they were a side that earned 0-0 draws with both France and Brazil. Las Chicas Ponderosas will be comfortable grinding out a low-scoring match since they prefer parking the bus before finding opportunities for counter-attacks. Their loss to Morocco in the Group Stage was, in part, because they had a tactical conflict with that team that wanted to play a similar approach. England will play aggressively — which is just what Colombia wants.

FINAL TAKE: The story of this World Cup is the emergence of the women’s programs in nations that have had strong men’s teams before investing resources to catch up with the North American and European women’s programs. Colombia has been lurking for years — and now they enjoy the catbird seat where a loss will not be deflating but a victory would be transcendent. All the pressure is on England with a group losing more players and who have only outscored four of their five (non-China) opponents by a 2-0 goal margin. I will be surprised if the Lionesses can score twice in regulation time. I will settle for a push if England wins by a 1-0 score while I expect a scoreless match (or maybe 1-1) after 90 minutes — and I will love Colombia pulling the upset (and NO, I do not recommend adding a little sprinkle on the upset because all those “sprinkles” add up to losses more often than not — I will just be happy to cash this winning ticket at South Point tomorrow morning). 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage by finishing in second place in Group F with their 0-0 draw with Brazil on Wednesday. Colombia (W2-D0-L1) won Group H despite coming off a 1-0 loss to Morocco on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia is a dangerous underdog when they can engage in the role of counter-attacking as they proved against Germany in their huge 2-1 upset victory against one of the tournament favorites who finished in second place at the Euro Championship last summer. But Las Chicas Ponderosas are not as comfortable in the role of the favorite where the tactics call for them to play on their front foot — as they demonstrated in their loss to Morocco. The Moroccan women were content in parking the bus and playing defense while waiting for their opportunities in the counter-attack. While Colombia generated 11 shots, only three were on target. Morocco had seven shots with five of them on target. Morocco won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.2-0.6 margin — so it was a legitimate upset victory for them. South Korea is the only opponent that Las Chicas Ponderosas generated a higher xG mark in the Group Stage. Colombia only produced 2.6 xG in the Group Stage — and their -0.8 net expected goal differential is the only negative mark for the eight betting favorites in the Knockout Stage. They are registering only 0.63 non-penalty kick expected goals per match along with a mere 0.33 Big Chances per match. This team is simply not comfortable controlling possession — they had the ball 60% of the time in their loss to Morocco after letting Germany control possession 67% of the time in their upset victory. Colombia ranks 16th of the 32 in the original field in host Scoring Chances and Shots on Target. Their back line will be without Real Sociedad defender Manuela Vanegas who got suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card. Jamaica will be thrilled to engage in a similar game plan as the Moroccans did against Colombia — and the Reggae Girlz may be even better at parking the bus and waiting for the opportunities to counter-attack. They will play a similar 4-4-2 formation that will settle in at the low block. Jamaica has not conceded a goal in this tournament which includes impressive scoreless draws against France and Brazil. Their 77 clearances are the most in this tournament. They have an outstanding keeper in Rebecca Spencer — the Tottenham goalie has 17 saves on the 17 shots on target she has faced. The Reggae Girlz are led by Allyson and Chantelle Swaby with the sister duo controlling the middle at center back. And while Jamaica has scored only one goal, their ability to score goals in the Knockout Stage now should not be underestimated. Forward Khadija Shaw scored 20 goals last season for Manchester City.

FINAL TAKE: The expectations Colombia has in this match may not be doing them any favors. This is the program’s second Knockout Stage match after losing to the USA by a 2-0 score in the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the 2015 tournament. But the Reggae Girlz are true underdogs in their first Knockout Stage match having to rely on a GoFundMe campaign to find the money to compete at this tournament after their financial requests were denied by the federation. This shapes up to be a low-scoring match with things being scoreless after 90 minutes highly likely — but I am not going to be surprised if the Jamaicans score the upset. 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Match of the Year with Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup with a 0-0 draw with Ireland on Monday. England (W3-D0-L0) completed a sweep of their three Group Stage opponents with their 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Brisbane Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England enters this match with an overrated offensive attack that looks more impressive after scoring six times against China. They scored in the fourth minute of that match which changed the complexion of the contest since China needed a victory to advance to the Knockout Stage — so they had to play more aggressively which contributed to the blowout. The Lionesses only registered 2.6 expected goals in that match so they significantly overperformed the underlying metrics. England only scored one goal apiece in their first two matches at this event — and their 6.3 expected goals are just the ninth most in the tournament. The Lionesses are dealing with several injuries with striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby out with injuries before the World Cup started. Keira Walsh is dealing with a knee that leaves her in doubt to play this morning. They are far from full strength in their attack. Frankly, this England side is probably a bit overvalued right now on the heels of winning the Euro Championship last summer. Not only did the Lionesses have the benefit of home-field advantage in hosting the event but they were fortunate in several of their matches after losing the expected goals battle. But England has been dominant on defense despite playing without their best defender, Leah Williamson. The penalty kick goal China scored is the only goal they have allowed. Their 0.9 expected goals China managed is the most an opponent has generated in this event — and their total expected goals allowed is just 1.9 xGA. They face a dangerous opponent in Nigeria who is a disciplined underdog that will be content in giving up possession while limiting high-quality scoring opportunities. Despite allowing the fourth most touches of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage, they rank fifth in the tournament by limiting their opponents on target to just 22.9% of their shot attempts. In their scoreless draw with Ireland, they held the Irish women to just 0.5 expected goals while managing only 1.1 expected goals themselves. The Super Falcons have scored only three goals in this tournament while registering just 3.0 expected goals. But they have allowed only two goals with an xGA of just 4.1.

FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has played two matches to scoreless draws with their 0-0 draw with Canada perhaps being most telling since the Canadians are one of the best teams in the world who won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. Nigeria survived perhaps the toughest group in this tournament that included host nation Australia as well as a disappointed Canada squad that did not advance along with a feisty Ireland side. I considered the Super Falcons plus the +1.5 goals but concluded the Under was the preferred option given the strength of England’s defense (I think a 2-0 England win is more likely than a 2-1 win for the Lionesses). 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Panama (W3-D2-L0) reached the championship match of the Gold Cup on Wednesday by beating the United States in penalty kicks (5-4) after their semifinals match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time. Mexico (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Wednesday. This match is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico has found their mojo again under manager Jaime Lozano who took over for  Diego Cocca after El Tri got trounced by the United States by a 3-0 score in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last month. The improved play has started with their defense as they have allowed only two goals in their five matches — and one of those conceded goals was against Qatar when they were playing with a rotated starting XI in the final group stage match with the luxury of having first place in their group all but wrapped up. Mexico has held their opponents to just 30 shots in this tournament — an average of just six per match. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) has been only 1.5 goals. Their veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa has registered three clean sheets. El Tri did score an impressive three goals against a strong Jamaican side but the game script of that match quickly tilted in their favor when they scored in the first two minutes. The Reggae Boyz were forced out of their preferred defensive posture playing catchup for the entire match. Panama has been deceptively strong on the defensive side of the pitch with four of the five goals they have allowed taking place after the 90th-minute mark. The lone goal the United States scored against them was at the 105th-minute mark after the match remained scoreless after the 90 minutes of regulation time.

FINAL TAKE: Panama has been blanked in four of their last five matches against Mexico — they have scored just once in those previous five encounters. Los Canaleros will engage in a defensive posture hoping to force extra time as they did against the Americans. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 1-0 win against Guatemala in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals the day before with a 2-0 win against Costa Rica. This match is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Mexico is playing better and with more energy under new head coach Jaime Lozano. After a disappointing third-place finish in the CONCACAF Nations League this year — including an embarrassing 3-0 loss to the United States last month — led to  Diego Cocca getting sacked. El Tri only won three of their six matches in that competition. Mexico lost their final group stage match against Qatar by a 1-0 score — but I am not reading too much into that since El Tri was resting players after essentially clinching first place in Group B. They also got a bit unlucky in that match. But I am not going to read too much from their 4-0 victory against Honduras nor their 3-1 win against Haiti in the group stage either as those are both weak opponents. The Costa Rica squad they played in the Quarterfinals is down from previous incarnations of that national team. Facing the Reggae Boyz now will be Mexico’s toughest test since playing the USMNT last month. Jamaica reached the Semifinals of the Gold Cup for the fourth time in the last five tournaments — and this might be their best squad. The Reggae Boyz got a big injection of attacking energy with Demarai Gray choosing to leave England’s national team to play for Jamaica as a dual citizen. The Everton forward has scored two goals and added two assists in this tournament. He is joined up top by Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey who has two assists. And while Michail Antonio has not scored in over a year in international play, the star striker from West Ham can explode at any time after leading the Hammers to the Europa League title in the spring. Overall, the Reggae Boyz have six players who play in the English Premier League. They finished in second place in this tournament in 2015 and 2017. Jamaica has scored first in all four of their matches with 11 goals overall going from nine different players. But this squad remains stout defensively led by an outstanding veteran keeper in Andre Blake. They have only conceded twice including once in their impressive 1-1 draw with the United States in their opening group stage match.

FINAL TAKE: The last time Jamaica beat Mexico was by a 1-0 score in a friendly back in 2017. But the Reggae Boyz managed two draws in the last two meetings between these sides which were both CONCACAF Nations League matches with the most recent contest being in March. Jamaica can win this match — and they can certainly keep the score tied going into extra time (ensuring we cover the goal-line spread after the 90-minute regulation time). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations League. THE SITUATION: Canada advanced to the Finals of this competition with their 2-0 win against Panama in the Semifinals on Thursday. The United States reached the Finals with a 3-0 win against Mexico in their Semifinals match on Thursday. The match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE CANADA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It was a very emotional match for the USMNT against their biggest rival in Mexico three days ago. There were fights in the stands, aggression on the pitch, and plenty of red cards got issued. The Americans dominated the match — but it was against an El Tri side far from full strength with Raul Jimenez, Hirving Lozano, and Tecatito all not on active roster for these competitions. Not only are those players three of the best on the Mexican national team, but they are also veteran leaders of the squad for years. Given the red card situation from Thursday, the Stars and Stripes will play this match without midfielder Weston McKenzie and fullback Sergino Dest. McKenzie is one of the best players on the team who starts for Juventus in Serie A. Dest is one of the young emerging stars for the team who plays internationally for Barcelona. An emotional letdown after that victory against El Tri is a real possibility. This is an American team in transition as it begins to prepare for the 2026 World Cup as the host nation. It was announced that Gregg Berhalter will return as the manager after six months away from the team after the 2022 World Cup in the fall. B.J. Callaghan serve as the interim manager tonight in his second match as the caretaker for the team after Anthony Hudson initially served as the temporary manager. USA has talent with Folarin Balogun having made his national team debut on Thursday. He joins Giovanni Reyna who has yet to resolve his controversy with Berhalter that resulted in his not playing in the World Cup. The Americans are led by Christian Pulisic who scored twice on Thursday. But the face of this generation of Team USA could not hold a starting job for a struggling Chelsea side in the English Premier League this season and will move to another professional club. Pulisic will not be the best player on the pitch tonight — more on that in a moment. On the surface, there are reasons for optimism for the USMNT after reaching the Knockout Stage at the World Cup before losing to the Netherlands by a 3-1 score. Their nil-nil draw with England in the Group Stage was seen as a major triumph. But the USA also settled for a draw with an underwhelming Wales side — and their only victory was against an Iran side that was one of the lowest-ranked teams in the competition. Canada has beaten five of the last six CONCACAF opponents they have played after their victory against Panama on Thursday. Manager John Herdman played the long game in that match as well by having Alphonso Davies come off the bench — and he immediately scored at the 69-minute mark to put that match away. The Bayern Munich midfielder is the best player in this contest tonight — and he is joined by a talented forward in Jonathan David who is Lille’s top striker in Ligue 1. Les Rouges have several players who play internationally — and they have good cohesion having played for Hardman for years. They went into the World Cup with high expectations but could not get over the hump playing in a very difficult group. They lost by 1-0 and 2-1 scores to Belgium and Morocco. They took a 1-0 lead against Croatia before losing by a 4-1 score. Their goal for the 2026 World Cup will be to reach the Knockout Stage (hopefully with an easier Group Stage draw) and perhaps reach the Quarterfinals. Success at the international level is the next challenge for this side. But when playing fellow CONCACAF teams, Canada is confident. They finished in first place in the World Cup qualifying stage for CONCACAF. Their 11 goals in Nations League play are the most in the competition. Les Rouges will be content to play back and go on the counter-attack led by Davies who is one of the fastest players in the world. The USMNT will control possession — but they are cohesion issues to work out with the mix of Pulisic and Reyna with Balogun and they have been vulnerable to counter-attacking tactics like Wales in their opening World Cup match last fall.

FINAL TAKE: Upsetting the United States would be a huge accomplishment since the Americans have won the last two CONCACAF titles in the 2021 Gold Cup and the 2019 inaugural CONCACAF Nations League. But Canada won the last meeting between these teams with a 2-0 victory in January 2022 in the World Cup qualifying stage. While that match was in Canada, they did earn a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in the US in July of 2021. Les Rouges have not beaten Team USA on American soil since July of 1957 — but the home-field edge for the USMNT will not be overwhelming tonight. Canada just played at Allegiant Stadium on Thursday so there is familiarity with the pitch. And the mood here in Las Vegas is tepid after the violence in the stands and ensuing traffic jams outside the stadium. Mexico was the big match — now it’s “just the (nice) Canadians” — but the Americans are the team with the bullseye on their jersey for our neighbors up north. Finally, remember that all we need is a tie score after 90 minutes of regulation time (plus stoppage time) to cash this ticket. If this match goes for extra time or is settled by penalty kicks, we win. 25* CONCACAF Nations League  Match of the Year with Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610).  Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City reached the Finals of the UEFA Champions League after a 4-0 victory at home against Real Madrid on May 17th that cemented their 5-1 aggregate victory. Inter Milan beat AC Milan in the second leg of the Semifinals showdown with their crosstown rivals to advance with a 3-0 aggregate score.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan completed their Serie A campaign last Saturday in a 1-0 win at Torino in a match where they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.55 to 0.79 margin. Le Nerazzurri are historically one of the top two sides in Italy — and perhaps they are top-ten in the world over the last five or so years. But this year’s club was the beneficiary of some good fortune in the Champions League. They did survive a difficult Group Stage that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona — beating Barcelona at home in early October ended up being the difference for them after losing both matches to the Bundesliga giants. Their draw in the Knockout Stage was as good as can ever be expected. They got FC Porto in the Round of 16 and then Benfica in the Quarterfinals. After disposing of those two clubs from the Primeira League of Portugal, they then drew fellow Serie A competitor AC Milan who was missing their best striker Rafael Leo in the first leg. They also got both those matches in their San Siro home stadium which they share with AC Milan. Le Nerazzurri finished only tied for third place in Serie A this season — and they were fifth in that league with a W9-D3-L7 record on the road. They have an older roster featuring the 37-year-old Edin Dzeko, the 34-year-old Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and the 30-year-old Romelu Lukaku coming off the bench. While the 25-year-old Lautaro Martinez is their best player and could be destined for a big contract in the English Premier League someday, Lukaku and Mkhitaryan are EPL castaways at this point in their careers. The quality of play in Serie A (and the Primeira League) is a few notches below the level of play in the EPL that Man City dominated. The Cityzens are looking to achieve a historical treble with the EPL title, last week's FA Cup title, and now the European Championship. That Red Devils team they played last week is probably better than this Inter Milan side. There is a route for victory for Le Nerazzuri with their 5-3-2 defensive structure and their outstanding keeper Andre Onana keeping them in a low-scoring match. But if — and when — Man City scores, then Inter Milan will have to eventually shift out of their defensive approach which will open things up for the Sky Blues to counter-attack with more scoring opportunities. Man City was on a 25-match unbeaten streak through clinching the EPL title last month. Ignore their recent results outside the FA Cup title last week since manager Pep Guardiola deployed a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury to prepare for these two huge matches this month. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. After not scoring last Saturday against Manchester United, he could be in store for a big match after being brought in last summer specifically in being the final piece to bring the Champions League title to the club. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.

FINAL TAKE: Guardiola was brought into Man City to bring the fabled franchise their first Champions League title. After becoming the hegemony of the EPL, this is the final trophy for Pep and this core group of players to claim — and they really want it. They were favorites to win the title match two years ago before getting upset by Chelsea. They then blew a big first-leg lead against Real Madrid in the semifinals last year. The rosters on those Chelsea and Real Madrid teams were much better — and battle-tested against better domestic and UCL competition. The Cityzens will not take this challenge lightly. After rallying to upend Arsenal in the EPL after fronting them a big lead, I think they are a team of destiny who will seize the moment with a big win. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401) in the FA Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W5-D0-L0) reached the English FA Cup Finals with a 3-0 victory against Sheffield United on April 22nd. Manchester United (W5-D0-L0) joined them in the championship match the next day with a 0-0 match with Brighton and Hove Albion that the Red Devils on penalty kicks on April 23rd. This match is being played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United enters this match on a four-game winning streak after a 2-1 win at home against Fulham that completed their English Premier League campaign on Sunday. The Red Devils qualified for the UEFA Champions League by finishing in third place in the EPL table with 75 points — but they still were far off from Man City who won the league title with 89 points. Man United was the second-best side (to the Cityzens) when playing at home. They won 15 of their 19 matches at home at Old Trafford with just one defeat in EPL action. They scored   36 goals at home in those 19 league matches while conceding just 10 times. They generated an impressive +24.88 net expected goal differential (xGD) when playing at home in those 19 EPL matches. But it was a different story for the Red Devils when they played on the road. Man United was just W8-D3-L8 on the road in the EPL this season — and they were outscored by 10 goals in those 19 contests. They only scored 22 goals in those 19 road matches — and they conceded 33 times. They have a -3.27 net xGD in those 19 road matches — and they ranked only six in the EPL in expected Points when playing on the road. While the Red Devils’ played elite-level defense at home in Old Trafford, they were middle of the pack on the road. Manager Erik Ten Hag’s side ranked only seventh in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected Goals Allowed this season. Even more troubling, Man United was beaten by seven of the other top-eight teams in the EPL table when playing on the road with a 2-2 draw at Tottenham being their best result. In these eight road matches, the Red Devils scored only eight goals while conceding 28 goals. Five of their losses to the top-nine sides were by multiple goals. Ten Hag’s team enters this match not at full strength with Anthony and Anthony Martial dealing with injuries. This leaves Man United lacking depth at the striker position which means Ten Hag will likely move Marcus Rashford to the #10 position despite his being more effective at wing. And here comes Man City rested and determined to pull off the rare treble. With the EPL title in hand, the Sky Blues look to take the FA Cup before playing for the UEFA Champions League title next Saturday against Inter Milan. Man City’s 25-match unbeaten streak was snapped last Sunday in a 1-0 loss at Brentford last Sunday to conclude their EPL campaign — but manager Pep Guardiola deplored a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury of already clinching the EPL title the week earlier. In FA Cup play, the Cityzens scored 17 times and did not concede a goal. Stefan Ortega will continue to serve as the team’s keeper in Cup action as he looks to continue his five-straight clean sheets streak. Frankly, he has been more reliable this year than Emerson who will get the start next week in the Champions League Finals. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.

FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their minds as well after losing to Man United at Old Trafford in the last match between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 14th. But the Cityzens have still won three of the last four matches between these two teams while outscoring them by a 12-4 goal margin. 25* FA Cup Match of the Year with Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.

FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). THE SITUATION: Man United (W21-D6-L9) has won two matches in a row after their 1-0 win against Bournemouth on Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D10-L15) comes off a 1-0 loss to Man City on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED DEVILS MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United needs one more point in their final two matches to secure a top-four finish in the English Premier League table which qualifies them for the UEFA Champions League next year. But manager Erik ten Hag would prefer to get this accomplishment out of the way as soon as possible so he can rest players in the final EPL match of the season to prepare for the FA Cup final coming up against Man City. The squad looks to get back their leading scorer Marcus Rashford for this match as well with him in training this week after missing time with a leg injury. Rashford might have played in the match against Bournemouth but he then got ill which delayed his return to the pitch. Man United has been tough to beat at home at Old Trafford this season where they have won 13 of their 17 EPL matches while losing only one time. They have a +17.2 expected net goal differential at home as compared to their -4.3 expected net goal differential on the road in league play. The Red Devils have not allowed a goal at home in EPL play since early February with five victories amongst those six clean sheets. Chelsea has nothing to play for with their current standing in 12 place — they are safe from relegation but can not qualify for any European tournaments next year. Disarray with the ownership contributed to some questionable transfer signings of overrated past-their-prime talent. Unsurprisingly, the predictable injury bug followed. Mason Mount, Ben Chilwell, N’Golo Kante, Reese James, and Mateo Kovacic headline their long injured list — and now Benoit Badiashile joins that group with the defender suffering a groin injury that could keep him sidelined for months. The team is on their third manager this season with Frank Lampard agreeing to serve as a short-term caretaker after Graham Potter was sacked on April 6th. While Lampard was a legendary player for the Blues, he was a miserable failure for the franchise as their manager several seasons ago — and he then was ineffective as the manager for Everton before getting fired earlier in the year. Predictably, the players have not responded to Lampard’s temporary reinstatement with the team. Since he has taken over, Chelsea is third worst in the league with seven losses and only three points in nine matches.  Their lone results were a win against 15th-place Bournemouth and a draw at home to 16th-place Nottingham Forest. The defense has been atrocious under Lampard with the team allowing 1.43 expected goals per match and 2.9 Big Chances per match under his second tenure. The Blues have not produced a clean sheet since he took over. Chelsea is the poster child for a team with their minds focused on the proverbial beach before former Tottenham and Paris Saint-Germain manager Mauricio Pochettino takes over to begin fixing the many problems with this squad.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge back when Thomas Tuchel was still managing this Blues team that had higher aspirations. Chelsea ranks fourth to the bottom of the league in points generated on the road. Beating the Blues always gives Man United motivation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg of this semifinals last Tuesday. Manchester City hosts the second leg at the Etihad.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti instructed his team to play conservatively and with caution in the first leg between these teams — and after Vinicius Junior scored the opening goal at the 36th-minute mark, this directive was even more imperative. Los Blancos do not have the same level of talent as Manchester City — but the reigning Champions League champions have plenty of star power to pull out a close match in the second leg. Real Madrid only generated 0.89 expected goals — but they executed what Ancelotti wanted by limiting the Sky Blues to just 0.37 expected goals. But Man City was able to settle for the draw when Kevin DeBruyne evened the score in the 67th minute. So it is now winner take all back at the Etihad. Los Blancos followed that match up on Saturday with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe in La Liga action. They have now scored in 16 straight matches across all competitions. They have also scored 26 goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League this season for a robust 2.36 Goals-Per-Game average. But the defensive play for Real Madrid has not been nearly as stout when playing away from home this year. In five home matches against upper-tier competition, Los Blancos held Liverpool, Chelsea RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad to a combined 4.4 expected goals. But when playing on the road against those five sides, Real Madrid conceded a combined 9.5 expected goals (xG) with Liverpool accumulating 2.2 xG, Chelsea, RP Leipzig, and Barcelona all generating 1.9 xG, and Read Sociedad registering 1.9 xG. Now Los Blancos have to try to again slow down what is probably the best-attacking team in the world in this Cityzens group. Man City has scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches across all competitions after their 3-0 win at Everton on Sunday. They matched Real Madrid’s 26 goals in 11 Champions League competitions this season. Manager Pep Guardiola may have been comfortable with the conservative tactics that Ancelotti deployed last week knowing they had the advantage of the second leg being back at the Etihad. Man City has won 15 straight matches at home while scoring two or more goals in 14 of those contests. With the addition of Erling Haaland this season, Guardiola has his first world-class number-nine striker at the top of the pitch for the first time since Sergio Aguero from several seasons ago. Haaland has been a goal-scoring machine for this team with 36 goals across 33 matches in all competitions for the Sky Blues this season. But the defense has been an issue with this team. Ederson did get the clean sheet shutout on Sunday — but that was the first time he had not conceded in his last matches across all competitions. The team's two previous clean sheets were with backup keeper Stefan Ortega getting the spot start. Guardiola will not have Nathan Ake available for this match as he recovers from injury.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown of European superpowers is a rematch of the Champions League semifinals last year. In the first leg at the Etihad, Man City won by a 4-3 score in what was a wild up-and-down affair. And after scoring first in the second leg in Madrid, the Cityzens thought they were in control before Karim Benzema put his team on his back with Real Madrid scoring three late goals to steal a 6-5 aggregate score victory. Benzema exposed a shaky Man City defense against counterattacks — and he is ready to make noise again with the help of a rapidly improving Junior. But Haaland was signed in the summer to a big contract for precisely this moment. The low scoring in the first leg was the outlier between these two teams. The urgency of this tied second leg will lead to aggressive play, fireworks, and plenty of goals (one way or another) given the counter-attacking prowess of both sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062) in the Finals of the Men’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: France (W5-D0-L1) advances to the Finals of the World Cup with their 2-0 victory against Morocco on Wednesday. Argentina (W5-D0-L1) reached the Finals the day before with their 3-0 victory against Croatia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: France has been the highest-scoring side in this competition with 13 goals scored. The deeper metrics confirm the scoring prowess of Les Bleus with 13.1 expected goals. In their victory against Morocco, they posted 2.25 xG even against a defensive side. Led by Kylian Mbappe who has scored five goals in this event, this team has probably the best player in the world right now. But the continuing concern for manager Didier Deschamps has been the shaky play of his back line. France has conceded at least one goal in five of their six matches. Overall, Les Bleus have allowed five goals — and the expected goals they have allowed in this tournament suggest it should be even worse with their 7.37 xGA mark. In their last three matches in the Knockout Stage, France has allowed 6.03 xGA with all three of these opponents reaching 1.43 xGA or higher. To compound matters, the “air conditioning” bug that has been spreading in Qatar — blamed on the constant air conditioning blasting throughout the city for this world event — has impacted the Les Bleus locker room with defenders Raphael Varane and Ibrahima Konate under the weather. Varane, at least, should still play — but it is a worry if he is not at 100% overcoming a flu bug. Argentina has been dynamic in their scoring attack with 12 goals scored in this tournament — and their xG is 13.72. They generated 3.19 xG in their victory against the stout defense of Croatia. La Albiceleste has scored two or more goals in five straight games. This has been a breakout tournament for Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez. But the straw that stirs the drink remains Lionel Messi who has been outstanding in the pursuit of his first World Cup title to put the bow on his illustrious career. Messi has scored five goals himself in this event — and he is playing to cement his status as the Greatest Of All Time in this match. But Le Albiceleste is not strong with their fullbacks — and they have surrendered leads too often in this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey affairs that usually are lower-scoring matches — and that is how this match should initially play out. But if and when a team scores the first goal, this contest should open up. France is a counter-attacking side — so expect Argentina to control possession. With the Mbappe versus Messi narrative involved in this match along with two shaky defenses, expect a higher-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool reached the finals of the European championship with their 3-2 victory at Villarreal which gave them a 5-2 aggregate win in the semifinals. Real Madrid rallied from losing the first leg at Manchester City by a 4-3 score to level the aggregate score in regulation time in the second leg before scoring in extra time to take the 6-5 aggregate victory. This match is being played on a neutral field at the State de France in Saint-Denis, France, just north of Paris.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Real Madrid has had a difficult road to reach the finals with a grueling knock stage that involved matches against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, and Man City. But Los Blancos consistently lost the expected goals battle in those contests — and they have a -1.9 net expected goals differential in those six knockout stage contests. Defense is an issue for manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team as they allowed 1.8 expected goals per match in their six knockout stage matches. They have resisted a clean sheet in any of the six legs in the knockout stage. Furthermore, much of the magic with this Real Madrid side came at home. Against Man City in the second leg of the semifinals, the Cityzens seemingly had the match in hand with a 1-0 lead before Rodrygo scored in the 90th and then 91st minute to force extra time where the sublime Karim Benzema scored the game-winner on a penalty kick in front of an ecstatic crowd. Los Blancos posted a +0.75 expected goals differential when playing at home — but they had a -0.16 net expected goals differential in the Champions League when playing on the road. Liverpool settled for second place in the English Premier League by one point — but they remain very motivated to bring home this trophy. They have scored at least two goals in 12 of their 15 Champions League matches. Additionally, they have only lost once in their last 12 Champions League matches (an irrelevant second-leg loss to Inter Milan where they still won the aggregate score comfortably) — and they won 10 of those matches. They have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 Champions League matches — and they have scored at least three goals in six of those contests. The Reds’ defense has also been solid as they have only conceded more than 1.0 expected goals once in their six matches in the knockout stage.

FINAL TAKE: This one is personal for Mo Salah who had to leave the Finals of the 2018 Champions League against this same Real Madrid side after receiving a cheap shot from Sergio Ramos that separated his shoulder. Salah has commented that losing the 2018 final was the biggest professional disappointment of his career. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W8-D11-L18) needs a result to potentially pass Burnley to avoid relegation after settling for a 1-1 draw at home against Brighton and Hove Albion last Sunday. Brentford (W13-D7-L17) has won seven of their last ten matches after their 3-2 win at Everton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds has to play aggressively in this match — they trail Burnley by 13 goals in the differential department so they have to assume they need to register a victory to secure the three points since a draw by the Clarets at home against Newcastle would mean a draw in this match would not be enough for the Peacocks. The Whites did generate 2.37 expected goals (xG) against the Seagulls last week — but they surrendered 2.05 xG in the draw. Leeds is one of the worst defensive teams in the English Premier League. They have conceded the most Big Chances that have scoring likelihood of at least 35%. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches.  On the road, the Peacocks have allowed at least two goals in six of their last nine contests. They have allowed 2.05 expected goals allowed (xGA) in their 18 previous road matches. Brentford’s attack has been elevated since Christian Eriksen became a regular on the pitch. In those ten matches, the Bees have scored 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they rank fourth in Big Chances created during that stretch. Their xG of 1.99 in those ten matches suggests their improved scoring prowess is likely to be sustainable. In their last two matches, Brentford has scored six times with an xG of 5.20.

FINAL TAKE: In the reverse fixture at Leeds on December 5th, both teams scored twice in the 2-2 draw. Expect another higher-scoring contest with Leeds United desperate for the victory which should create scoring opportunities for Brentford in the counter-attack. The Bees will want to play hard in front of their home fans in their final home match in their first season back promoted in the English top flight. They also have a chance to finish in the top-ten with a result. 25* EPL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D8-L2) returns to their English Premier League schedule after beating Aston Villa by a 2-1 score last Tuesday. Southampton (W9-D13-L14) has lost seven of their last ten matches after their 3-0 loss at Brentford back on May 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool comes off a 1-0 victory against Chelsea in the finals of the FA Cup on Saturday that was resolved via a shootout after 120 minutes of scoreless play. Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk left that match early with injuries that keeps them off the eligible roster for this match. Manager Jurgen Klopp has dug deep to his bench for this match — and the result is a starting XI that lacks many of their top attackers. Sadio Mane is also not playing — and their winter transfer, Luis Diaz, is on the bench. The top two attackers are Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in the starting XI, but both are both limited. Jota is a poacher who has had success when joining Salah and Mane up top — but he is not a lead dog as he demonstrated in his time with Wolverhampton. Firmino appears past his prime for the last two seasons and has scored only nine goals this year. The Reds will also not have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andre Robertson who play important roles in the attack on the wing. And because Klopp is relying on backups for his back line, expect a more cautious approach. Liverpool needs the win, not a blowout. Southampton only generated 1.32 expected goals in their loss to Brentford ten days ago. While the Saints have little to play for as they sit in 15th place in the EPL table but safe from relegation, don’t be surprised if they relish the opportunity to play spoiler and ruin Liverpool’s title aspirations. After Manchester City’s 2-2 draw at West Ham over the weekend, a Reds victory pulls them within one point with one match to go of the Cityzens. Southampton upset Liverpool at home last year by a 1-0 score — and they limited the Reds to just 1.35 expected goals despite Salah and company being on the pitch. But the Saints have scored only one goal in their last two matches and only four goals in their last six matches. They are not likely to score more than once in this match even against the B-team that Liverpool is sending out.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has seen six of their last seven matches accrue three or less combined goals — and Southampton has seen four of their last five matches generate three combined goals or less. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of this semifinals showdown with a 4-3 victory at home at Etihad Stadium last Tuesday. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is in potent offensive form with all of their attackers healthy and contributing. The Cityzens come off a 4-0 victory at Leeds United in the English Premier League on Saturday. Man City has scored 16 goals during their current four-game winning streak across all competitions. Manager Pep Guardiola deploys many starting XI lineups that lack a traditional number striker — and they still score plenty of goals with effective midfielders like Kevin DeBruyne, Phil Foden, and Raheem Sterling. But what has helped the Cityzens in this recent surge is the sudden great form of one of the true number nines on the roster in Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian has scored seven goals in his last five starts to offer this side the finisher up top that may be the final piece of the puzzle Guardiola needs to pull off the double of winning a Champions League and the EPL title. Jesus loves playing against Real Madrid — he has three goals with an assist in his three career matches against them. But while the attack is clicking on all cylinders, the Man City defense is not playing at its most optimal level. After Leeds United generated 1.06 expected goals (xG), the Cityzens have allowed four of their last seven opponents to produce at least 1.0 xG — and that does not include the 3-2 loss to Liverpool in the Semifinals of the FA Cup (where expected goals data is not tracked). Guardiola is dealing with an injured backline that is missing John Stones while Kyle Walker and Nathan Are are dealing with knocks. He will have to turn to Oleksandr Zinchenko at right-back who has been a liability on defense in the past. Joao Cancelo returns to the pitch after being suspended for the first match — and while he is a great defender, he also provides the Cityzens a threat in the attack. Real Madrid has won three of their last four matches after a 4-0 victory against Espanyol on Saturday. Los Blancos have scored 13 goals in their last four matches — but they have allowed six goals as well over that span. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is also dealing with injuries on his backline with David Alaba dealing with a knock. He may be available today but he has yet to return to training. The hopes of this Real Madrid side rest on the shoulders of attacker Karim Benzema who is on fire right now. Benzema scored twice in the first leg last week — and he leads all players in the Champions League with 14 goals in the competition. Los Blancos have scored at least one goal in every one of their home matches in the Champions League going back to December of 2018 — and they have to beat the Cityzens by one goal to force extra time to advance to the Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: The pace was frenetic in the first meeting between these sides last week with Man City generating 3.08 xG and Real Madrid countering with 1.66 xG. Los Blancos have a -4.43 net expected goals differential in their last four matches in the Champions League — but be careful reading too much into that. With elite players like Benzema, Vinicius Junior, and Luka Modric, they have the talent that literally produces the positive outlier results from which expected goals data measuring league-wide averages derive. It’s kinda like expecting the Golden State Warriors to stop overperforming relative to the league (last night being an exception) with their 3-point shooting — the Regression Gods are not coming for the players that set the standard from which other player’s expected regression is measured. Another higher-scoring contest is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Liverpool won the first leg between these two teams by a 2-0 score last Wednesday. Villarreal hosts today’s match having to win by at least two goals to force extra time to decide the contest.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are rolling on a five-game winning streak — and they have won 22 of their last 27 matches across all competitions. They come off a 1-0 victory at Newcastle United on Saturday in a match where they limited the Magpies to only 0.16 expected goals. Liverpool’s defense is perhaps playing at its highest level ever under manager Jurgen Klopp. They have now registered four straight clean sheets since beating Man City in the FA Cup Semifinals — and they have conceded a combined 0.86 expected goals allowed (xGA) in those four contests. They absolutely stymied the Yellow Submarines in the first leg last week. Villarreal registered only one shot — and it was not on target — with a mere three touches in the Reds’ penalty area. Liverpool held them to just 0.05 xGA. Villarreal had little success penetrating the midfield line consisting of Thiago and Fabinho — only 13 of their 44 long passes were successful. The Reds, on the other hand, generated 1.75 expected goals (xG) while peppering the Yellow Submarines with 20 shots and 45 touches in their penalty area. Liverpool has been dominant when playing on the road as well. They have not lost on the road in any match since December — and they have won all five of their matches on the road in the Champions League. Villarreal remained flat over the weekend in a 2-1 loss at Alaves in La Liga. They generated only 1.10 xG while conceding 2.35 xGA. Injuries have slowed them down over this recent stretch — but manager Unai Emery does get Gerard Moreno back as an attacker. But the Yellow Submarines’ forward group is still decimated with injuries with their rising star at left-wing Arnaut Danjuma not in the starting XI after not playing over the weekend — and Alberto Moreno and Yeremi Pino are also still on the shelf. Let’s take a grain of salt to the weekend loss to Alaves since Emery rotated players to prepare for this rematch — the priority for this club is the Champions League. But it says something that Villarreal is only in seventh place in La Liga. They beat an overrated Juventus side learning to live life without Ronaldo in the Round of 16 — and then they were fortunate to catch an injured Bayern Munich team in the Quarterfinals. And they either had a lead or were tied with both those clubs going into the second leg which allowed Emery to maintain his low-block defensive stance where they could counter-attack with a healthier forward group. Now, this is Liverpool — one of the top two teams in the world. They will have to play aggressively — and the Reds should punish them in the counterattack. Villarreal is unbeaten in their last 12 matches at home — but they are just fourth at home in points in La Liga. The Yellow Submarines will have to play a style out of their comfort zone against a superior opponent — those are not promising circumstances.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did not win either second leg in the Knockout Stage in this competition — but context is important. The Reds held a 2-0 lead against Inter Milan in the Round of 16 — and when Inter dropped to 10 men after a yellow card, defensive tactics were more than enough to easily survive a 1-0 loss where they advanced with the 2-1 aggregate score. And then Klopp had the luxury of rotating players after winning their first leg with Benfica by a 5-0 score — so the 3-3 result in the second leg continued their overall domination in that match. With a showdown with Man City in the Finals looming, I suspect Klopp will demand a closing effort from his players — and his starting XI is the A-team (save for Jordan Henderson in the midfield who is getting rested). 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with the Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won their third match in their last four contests with a 1-0 victory at home against Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday. Villarreal settled with a 1-1 draw against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga on Saturday. Villarreal won the first leg last Wednesday by a 1-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Bavarians may have been taking the Yellow Submarine lightly last week — but they were thoroughly outplayed as they lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.61 to 1.23 margin. Frankly, manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is fortunate to only be trailing by one goal. But a two-goal victory tonight is all the Bavarians need to advance to the Semifinals. Injuries have impacted this team. Their star Canadian midfielder, Alphonso Davies, had been out but did get back on the pitch last week. He might have been dealing with fitness issues but he has now played in two matches after coming off the bench on the weekend. Midfielder Leon Goretzka has also been hobbled and came off the bench in the first leg — but he should get the start in this crucial rematch. Bayern Munich got blanked for just the second time in a Champions League since February 2020. But now the Bavarians return home to Allianz Arena where they are generating 3.25 xG in the Champions League this season and where they are posting 2.68 xG in the Bundesliga this year. They have won five of their last six games at home across all competitions. It has also been over three years since Bayern Munich has not scored at least two goals in a Champions League match at home. Villarreal is playing at their best in European competition — yet their form in domestic play has to be a concern. They are just W1-D1-L3 in their last five matches in La Liga while scoring only twice. They are not likely to qualify for European play next year through the Spanish top-flight given their current seventh place in the standings, trailing Real Sociedad by eight points. Their draw with Athletic Bilbao on Saturday was against the eighth-place team in the league, although manager Unai Emery did make 11 lineup changes for that match from the first leg. But while Villarreal is now unbeaten in 11 straight matches at home, they have not been nearly as effective when playing on the road. In domestic play, the Yellow Submarine is W9-D5-L2 at home while averaging a +1.02 net expected goal differential per 90 minutes. But on the road in La Liga, Villarreal is just W3-D5-L7 while averaging just a +0.09 net expected goal differential.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich was flat in their first leg match against RB Salzburg in the Round of 16 in the Champions League where they settled with a 1-1 draw — but they rebounded the next week back at home with a 7-1 thrashing to easily advance to the Quarterfinals. While I do not expect seven more goals tonight, a decisive effort is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253) in the second leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Ajax has won three straight matches with their 3-2 victory against Cambuur on Friday. Benfica is unbeaten in their last seven matches with their 1-1 draw at home against Vizela on Saturday. These teams settled for a 2-2 draw in the first leg of the Round of 16 on February 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE AJAX MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: I wrestled between the side play on the Sons of Gods or take the Over — and I concluded that an Ajax 2-0/3-0 victory is more likely this afternoon than a 3-2 Ajax win. Benfica may be without striker Roman Yaremchuk in this match as he is dealing with an illness. Ajax is going to score goals in this contest. They have scored three goals in their last three contests while generating at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each contest. The Sons of Gods are on a seven-match winning streak when playing at home with 31 goals and just two goals conceded (both on Friday — so manager Erik Ten Hag will be looking to shore things up on that end of the pitch). Ajax has scored at least three goals in each of those last seven home contests. This team was just one of three teams in the Group Stage of the Champions League to win all six of their matches. They scored the second-most goals in the Group Stage — and they also generated the second-best expected goals differential to Bayern Munich. In their three home matches in the Group Stage, they won all three contests by more than one goal (to cover a -1.5 goal-line spread). Benfica will surrender their share of goals as they have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Eagles are in second place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga which is not considered one of the elite leagues in Europe. And this is a team that can get rolled. In their three matches in the Champions League against Bayern Munich and Ajax, they conceded 10.24 expected goals (xGA). In their road match against Bayern Munich in the Group Stage, they got smashed by a 5-2 score. Benfica has held their last four opponents to 1.15 xGA per 90 minutes — but all four of those sides were on the bottom half of the Primeira Liga table. The Eagles scoring drops off on the road — while they generated 1.43 xG in their four Champions League home matches, that number drops to 1.13 xG per 90 minutes in their three Group Stage matches on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ajax won the xG battle by a 2.01 to 1.86 mark in the first leg. An own goal by Sebastian Haller gave Benfica life on their home pitch in that match. The Sons of Gods were on target in eight of their 11 shots in that match — their most efficient performance so far in the Champions League this season. Yaremchuck scored Benfica’s only goal — so his absence would hurt. Bayern Munich dominated RB Salzburg last week at home in that second leg after settling for a surprising draw on the road in the first leg — look for a similar game script in this one. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Year with the Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D11-L8) had their three-game snapped in a 4-0 loss at Aston Villa on Saturday. Newcastle (W6-D10-L10) has won two matches in a row after their 2-1 win against Brighton and Hove Albion last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints had been unbeaten in seven straight matches in all competitions — before laying an egg against the Villans — with their only two blemishes being very respectable draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s high-press has been effective even against those two sides that are now in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. Southampton ranks fourth in the English Premier League in pressure success rate — and this is a vulnerability for the Magpies as they have the third-worst success rate in the league breaking pressure. The Saints play their best at home at St. James Park where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with four straight victories. They thrive against teams in the bottom half of the league at home as well. They have won five of their seven EPL games at home against bottom-half clubs (with two draws) with three straight victories. They have allowed more than 1.0 expected goals (xG) just once in those seven matches — and they have generated at least 1.0 xG in six of those seven matches with the lone exception being in a match where they played with ten men due to a red card. In their last three matches at home against a bottom-half side, they have generated at least 2.2 xG. Newcastle is unbeaten in their last seven matches — but they were fortunate against Brighton as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.89-1.86 xG mark. Frankly, the Magpies have been fortunate to be getting the results they have. In their last six matches which finished with 11 versus 11 players, they have outscored those opponents by 5 goals despite having a net expected goals margin of +2.4. They have scored nine times in those six matches despite generating 7.6 xG.  And they have been taking advantage of the lesser teams in the league as six of their last seven opponents have been in 11th place or worse on the EPL table. They have lost six of their 12 league matches on the road where they rank third-to-last in xG. They have generated less than 1.0 xG in seven of their last eight matches that finished at 11-versus-11.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture at Newcastle on August 28th. Southampton dominated the expected goals in that match by a 3.53-1.23 xG margin — and they generated four Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate). Look for the Saints to earn the win on their home pitch. 25* EPL Thursday Afternoon Match of the Month with Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W7-D11-L7) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win against Everton on Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D5-L16) has lost two in a row after their 3-1 loss at Liverpool on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints are playing the best soccer of their season right now as they have reached the top half of the English Premier League table and continue to advance into the deep stages of the FA Cup. Southampton has only lost once in their last 11 matches across all competitions. They recently beat Tottenham and earned impressive draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. The Saints’ attack has averaged 2.18 goals-per-game in their last 11 matches across all competition. Southampton has been effective bottom-feeders as well — they are W4-D2-L0 in their last six matches against teams below them in the EPL table. They have generated 1.67 expected goals-per-game (xG) in those matches — +0.30 xG above their season average — while allowing just 0.67 expected goals per match (xGA). The Saints are also unbeaten in their last nine matches at home at Saint Mary’s Park with nine victories. They are sixth in the league at home in xGA with a mark that is -0.37 xGA below their season average. Norwich City is in last place in the EPL with just 17 points. Since Dean Smith has taken over as manager, the Canaries are last in the league in expected goals scored. They go on the road where they lost eight of their twelve matches — and they are last in the EPL in net expected goals differential. They only average 0.78 xG on the road — so the Saints may register a clean sheet in this match. Norwich City is also winless in their six road matches against teams in the top half of the league. They are allowing nearly 2.6 xGA per match in those contests. The Canaries' last six losses have all been by at least two goals.

FINAL TAKE: Southampton will have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Carrow Road which the Canaries won by a 2-1 score. The Saints did win the xG battle by a 1.1-0.5 mark — and they are in much better form now. 25* EPL Friday USA Network Match of the Month with the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217) in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Stage. THE SITUATION: Villarreal enters this match coming off a 4-1 win at Granada in La Liga action on Saturday. Juventus settled for a 1-1 draw with Turin in Serie A competition on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE VILLARREAL WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Villarreal is in their best form all season entering this match. Since November 30th, the Yellow Submarine are W10-D1-L3 in their last 14 matches with 45 goals and 13 goals conceded. In their last four matches (all in La Liga), they are unbeaten with three victories — scoring nine times and conceding just once. Manager Unai Emery’s style is to craft strong defensive teams that engage in a conservative offensive regimen predicated on the counter-attack. But these Yellow Submarines have thrived in scoring goals as of late. They generated 5.12 expected goals (xG) in their victory over Granada on Saturday which was the highest xG mark for any club playing in one of the top-five European professional leagues this season. They are getting great contributions up top from left wing Arnault Danjuma who scored a hat trick in that victory. Villarreal has arguably been the best team in La Liga since December 1st. They hold the best net expected goal differential of +1.47 (xGD) over that span. The emerging Yellow Submarine attack has been the difference-maker as they have generated 2.52 xG since December 1st which is the top mark in La Liga over that span — far above Real Madrid’s 2.20 xG mark. Villarreal’s defensive identity has remained during this time as they have allowed only eight goals in those last 11 La Liga contests, the fourth-lowest in that span. The Yellow Submarine press has been more effective this season. After ranking eighth and tenth in allowing the fewest successive passes in a row in league play (a measure of defensive pressure), they have catapulted to being second-best in La Liga in that metric. Playing at home at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal is unbeaten in their last six matches at home with 17 goals scored and just four conceded in those contests. Juventus is unbeaten in their last 12 matches in Serie A but they were shaky in their most recent match against Turin. They managed only 0.82 xG but conceded 0.93 expected goals allowed (xGA) against a side that is just 10th in the Italian top-flight (in a professional league not as strong as La Liga). The Old Lady is ravaged with injuries right now: Federico Cheese, Federico Bernardeschi, and Paulo Dybala are missing from their attack and they are without Giorgio Chellini and Daniele Rugani in their backline. The club did sign Dusan Vlahovic in the January transfer window to shore up the attack — but the 21-year-old’s stats with Fiorentina are propped up by five goals on penalty kicks. He has scored 19 times for Fiorentina and now Juventus this season — but he only has 9.2 non-penalty kick expected goals this year. In their last nine matches in Serie A, the Old Lady has not generated more than 1.5 xG in any of those contests. Their non-penalty kick xG in Serie of 1.17 is just 11th best — and their +0.38 net xGD of +0.38 is far below what Villarreal is generating despite playing in an inferior league to La Liga.

FINAL TAKE: Juventus has a -2.9 net xGD against the top-seven sides in Serie A plus their two Group Stage matches in the Champions League against Chelsea. They got waxed by a 4-0 score at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in their Group Stage contest — when they were healthier than they are now. Villarreal has tended to fold against elite competition but they have recently registered draws with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid while beating Real Bettis by a 2-0 score who are in third place in La Liga. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the first leg of the Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League knockout stage. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Villarreal on Saturday in La Liga action. Paris Saint-Germain last played on Friday in a 1-0 victory at home against Rennes in a Ligue 1 domestic match.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Expect the respective offensive attacks to be on display in this heavyweight showdown between European powers who both reached the semifinals of this tournament last year. Star power will be all over the pitch in this match — but this talent has been masking less-than-elite tactics on the defensive side of the pitch. PSG defensive numbers have improved lately — and they have only allowed one goal on with just 1.4 expected goals (xGA) in their last two matches. But those contests were in Ligue 1 play and the quality of competition in the French top flight is not nearly the same as it is in the other top European leagues. Les Parisiens’ defensive numbers in that league are probably overstated. While they have conceded 19 goals in Ligue 1, their xGA rises to a 22.50 mark. The defensive results in the Group Stage of the Champions League are likely more reflective of what to expect from manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side. PSG allowed eight goals in their six Group Stage matches — and their xGA was even worse at a 10.7 clip. They only registered a clean sheet once in those six contests (surprisingly against Man City who did generate 1.90 xG but still somehow got blanked). To make matters worse for Pochettino, he will not have center-back Sergio Ramos to anchor his backline for this match as he remains out with an injury. But PSG will have Neymar available after he was out for an extended period with an injury. I suspect Neymar will come off the bench as a sub given his fitness issues — but Les Parisiens still have their dream-team combination up top of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe which will become even more potent when Neymar joins this on the pitch. PSG will score in this match after registering 13 goals in their six Group Stage matches — and they will surrender at least once to Los Blancos. Real Madrid will have their star attacker, Karim Benzema, available for this match to join Vinicius Junior up top. Los Blancos are tops in La Liga in both goals scored and expected goals (xG). This side scored at least two goals in their final four Group Stage matches in the Champions League. The defensive play of Los Blancos under manager Carlo Ancelotti has also been superb — but I am not buying it against elite competition. Real Madrid had a relatively easy group with Inter Milan, Shakhtar Donetsk, and FC Sheriff). And they have been feasting on the lower end of the Spanish top-flight lately. But while Los Blancos have allowed just 20 goals to help them rest in first place in La Liga, they are just sixth in that league with their 25.35 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: These teams are playing higher-scoring matches against top competition. Real Madrid’s 3-2 victory against Barcelona in the Super Cup on January 12th is telling. Los Blancos also scored twice in December in league play against Atletico Madrid to overwhelm their elite defense. PSG followed up their two-goal win against Man City with a 2-1 loss in November in that reverse fixture in the Champions League. And in their two matches in the Champions League against a good but not great RB Leipzig side, they won by a 3-2 score and settled for a 2-2 draw. Expect more fireworks in this one — and these two powers have seen at least three goals scored in the last five meetings between them. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). THE SITUATION: Watford (W4-D2-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss to Norwich City on January 21st in their last match in the English Premier League and across all competitions. Burnley (W1-D9-L8) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal in their last match on January 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After a pair of COVID cancellations delaying this match between two teams fighting off relegation, it looks like this match will finally take place this afternoon while the rest of the EPL takes the weekend off (for FA Cup competition). Watford plays their first match under new manager Roy Hodgson two took over after Claudio Ranieri was fired on January 24th. Ranieri was only the Hornets skipper since early October when Xisco Munoz was sacked after leading the team to promotion from the Champions League. The first order of business for Hodgson will be to shore up a leaky defense that is third to last in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA). Hodgson has a good reputation for installing defensive tactics — he led Crystal Palace to develop into a stingy defensive squad before losing that job last season. He inherits a Hornets side that will be undermanned in their attack today. Ismaila Sara remains unavailable as he continues to compete in the Africa Cup of Nations. Forward Emmanuel Dennis is suspended for this match after he picked up two yellow cards in that match against Norwich City. Sarr and Dennis have scored 18 goals between them — accounting for 78% of the team’s scoring production in the EPL this season. As it is, Watford had only scored five goals in their previous seven matches while getting blanked twice. In their last six matches, they are generating a mere 0.88 expected goals (xG) per match. Burnley is only averaging 0.63 xG per match in their last six games. The Clarets have only scored three goals in their last seven matches with four blanks in that span. Losing Chris Wood who transferred to Newcastle played a role in this scoring slump — but this is not a high-scoring team. The organization did acquire Wout Weghorst in the transfer window from Wolfsburg but the Dutch forward may need some time to get in synch with manager Sean Dyche’s system. While Weghorst had scored at least 16 goals in four straight seasons in the Dutch Eredivisie, he struggled when playing for a second-tier team in the Bundesliga which may not be a good sign for him in the EPL. But Dyche’s side plays quality defense. The Clarets have only allowed eight goals when playing at home at Turf Moor, the fifth-lowest in the EPL, and their xGA at home is third-best in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen six of their 11 matches on the road this season finished Under 2.5 goals. Burnley averages only 2.29 combined goals per match in their seven home matches this season — and six of their last 11 home games have finished Under 2.5 goals. Expect a conservative approach from both teams who would rather register a point than concede three points to their opponent when trying to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200066) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200065). THE SITUATION: Everton (W5-D4-L10) lost their third match in the English Premier League in their last four with a 2-1 setback to Norwich City last Saturday. Aston Villa (W7-D2-L11) snapped a three-game losing streak across all competitions last Saturday with a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Everton organization decided enough was enough after the uninspired play from the Toffees from a promoted Canaries side that is currently in the relegation zone. Everton is in 16th place themselves — a far cry from the top half of the table where they expect to be competing for European competition qualification for next season. Manager Rafa Benitez was sacked after the match and replaced by assistant and a previous interim manager for the team in Duncan Ferguson. Benitez was not popular with fans nor the locker room — so I am expecting the new manager bounce for the Toffees this morning. And like a college football team firing their manager in-synch with a good returning class knowing that they are putting their new head coach in a better position to succeed, Benitez’s firing coincides with Everton getting healthy again. The Toffees have been ravaged with injuries but they do now have Dominic Calvert-Lewin back as their striker along with attacking midfielder Richarlison and Yerry Mina to fortify their backline. Calvert-Lewin has started the last two matches after playing only three matches in August before being out with an injury. Richarlison and Mina came on in the 54th minute against Norwich City with the Brazilian midfielder scoring a goal and jumpstarting the Toffees’ attack. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Everton averages 1.43 expected goals (xG) per match when Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison are playing together on the pitch — that mark drops to 0.98 xG when one or both of them are not playing in the last two seasons. The Toffees scored at least two goals in those first three matches in August before the Calvert-Lewin injury. Richarlison has missed seven of the team’s 19 matches this season — a big blow since he is probably the best overall player on the roster. Mina has missed 11 matches this season. When he is on the pitch leading the backline defenders, Everton allows only 1.12 expected goals (xGA) — but they surrender 1.92 xGA when he is not playing this season. The Toffees are a much better team when playing at home at Goodison Park where they have registered four of their five victories this season. Everton has scored at least two goals in six of their nine home matches — and they have just an expected net goal differential of -1.39 despite all the injuries to key players. Aston Villa had been outscored by a 6-2 margin in their three-game losing streak before eking out the surprising draw against a still-struggling Man United side finding their identity under a new caretaker manager. The Villans enjoyed an initial bump under their new manager Steven Gerrard who took over nine matches ago.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W12-D7-L3) comes off a 1-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W6-D10-L4) settled for a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea is just W1-D4-L1 in their last six matches after their loss over the weekend that likely ended their chances to win the English Premier League title. They managed only four shots against Man City with only one on target — and they did not register a shot in the entire first half of the match. They generated a mere 0.43 expected goals in the game. The Blues have only scored one goal in their last two matches. They are missing some key pieces in their attack in wings Reece James and Ben Chilwell are out with injuries. Their attack declines when playing on the road — while they average 2.20 expected goals (xG) when playing at home in league play, that drops to 1.64 xG when they are on the road in the EPL this season. But the defensive effort for this Chelsea side under manager Thomas Tuchel. They rank third in the league by holding their opponents to 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) — and their xGA on the road is 1.11. Brighton is unbeaten in their last five matches despite getting their goal on Friday from an own-goal from the Eagles. The Seagulls are an outstanding defensive team under manager Graham Potter. They rank fourth in the EPL by allowing only 1.19 expected goals (xGA). They are also second in the league in the fewest Big Chances (representing an expected goal rate of 35%) and fifth in fewest shots allowed. When playing at home, Brighton holds their opponents to 1.09 xGA. But the Seagulls have not scored more than one goal in six of their last seven games at home at Amex Stadium. These two teams just played on December 29th which resulted in a 1-1 draw. Chelsea managed only 0.92 xG in that match despite averaging 3.17 xG in their previous five matches at home. Brighton countered with only 1.05 xG in that contest. In the reverse fixture between these clubs last season, the result was a scoreless draw.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has seen two or fewer combined goals in four of their last six matches across all competitions. Brighton has seen two or fewer combined goals in nine of their last eleven matches across all competitions. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W12-D5-L1) last played an English Premier League match on December 16th when they settled for a 2-2 draw at Tottenham. Leicester City (W6-D4-L7) last played on an EPL match on Sunday when they lost at Manchester City by a 6-3 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams just played on Wednesday in the Caribou Cup with the Liverpool B-team pulling out a 4-3 victory in a shootout. The Reds had their last EPL match with Leeds United postponed because of COVID. The Liverpool defense has been leaky as of late after giving up 2.87 expected goals to the HotSpurs nine days ago. The Reds have allowed six goals in their last three matches. They do get back holding midfielder Fabinho and defenseman Virgil Van Dijk for this match — but they are coming off the COVID list so they may not be back to full fitness just yet even if they had only “mild” symptoms. But the Liverpool attack has been clicking after scoring eight goals in their last three matches. They have generated at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each of the EPL contests since November 17th against West Ham. They are tied with Man City with 50 goals for the most goals in the league (with a match in hand) — and they generate 2.4 xG when playing on the road. Leicester City has scored 12 goals in their last four matches in all competitions. Their problem is on the other side of the pitch where they have allowed 14 goals in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have conceded 12 goals in their last four contests. The Foxes have conceded 33 goals in EPL play — the fourth-most in the league. Their 1.69 expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL is fifth to the bottom. Leicester City has also conceded the third most Big Chances (with a goal expectancy of 35% or higher). When playing at home, the Foxes are generating 1.51 xG with 11 goals in their last three matches.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen at least four combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has seen at last four combined goals in eight of their last 11 contests. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). THE SITUATION: Brentford (W5-D5-L6) comes off a 2-1 win against Watford in their most recent match in the English Premier League on December 10th. Brighton and Hove Albion (W4-D8-L4) last played on December 15th when they lost 1-0 at home to Wolverhampton.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brentford was blanked in their most recent match in the Caribou Cup on Wednesday in a 2-0 loss to Chelsea. The Bees are limited in their attack — they are 15th in the EPL in shot attempts per 90 minutes. When playing on the road, Brentford has only 8.6 expected goals (xG) in their eight matches so far in the EPL this season. But Brentford does play well on defense. They rank sixth in the league in non-penalty kick expected goals allowed (xGA). They have conceded the sixth-fewest shots per 90 minutes. On the road, the Bees improve to four best in xGA. Brighton struggles to score goals — they have only scored three times in their last six matches while getting blanked three times. They have not scored more than once in those six matches — and they will be without one of their best offensive playmakers in Yves Bissouma who is out with an injury. The Seagulls average only 1.0 non-penalty kick xG per match — and they rank 15th in Big Chances created (with a 35% or higher expected success rate). Playing at home at the American Express Community Stadium, Brighton has scored only two times in their last five matches with three blanks. But the Seagulls are tough on defense — they are fifth in the EPL by conceding only 17 goals this season while also ranking fifth best in xGA. They have allowed the third-fewest Big Chances.

FINAL TAKE: Brighton consistently grinds out low-scoring matches under manage Graham Potter. They have played six straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281) in Group H play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W3-D0-L1) has won eight of their last nine matches across all competitions with their 3-0 win at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. Juventus (W4-D0-L0) has won three matches in a row across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Lazio in Serie A play on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues hot streak started after losing to Juventus in the reverse fixture in the Champions League on September 29th — more on that match in the Final Take. The reigning European Champions have since found the defensive core that helped them claim the Champions League title. And despite injuries at forward to Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner, manager Thomas Tuchel has his XI generating offense from their wings. Chelsea has produced a clean sheet in six of their last seven matches in the EPL and UCL. They have outscored their last seven opponents in the EPL and UCL by a whopping 19 to 1 margin — and they have scored multiple goals in four of their last six matches in the EPL and UCL. The Blues are dominating the EPL competition in first place with 30 goals and just four goals conceded. They have a +12.94 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the EPL that is the top professional league in Europe. Serie A is a top-five European professional league — but they are not as strong as the EPL. Juventus only has a +6.59 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the Italian top-flight where they are in sixth place. The team misses Cristiano Ronaldo who led their offensive attack last season before being signed by Manchester United this year. But the identity of Juventus is usually their defensive play — and after leading Serie in expected goals allowed (xGA) last season, they have dropped to third in that metric this year. Furthermore, three starters — Paulo Dybala, Giorgio Chiellini, and Federico Bernardeschi — are questionable to play in this match.

FINAL TAKE: Juventus has won all four of their UCL matches and just needs a draw to clinch their advancement to the Knockout Stage. Chelsea will want the victory to draw even with the Old Lady in Group H — and taking first place gives them a better draw in the Round of 16 so this is an important match. Despite losing 1-0 to Juventus in September, the Blues dominated the match. They controlled possession for 72% of the match; they out-touched them by a 422 to 77 margin in the final third of the pitch; they completed 723 passes to just 236 passes; they had 17 entries into the box to just 5 conceded. Look for Chelsea to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 25* UEFA Champions League Group H Match of the Month with Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Tottenham (200149) with the goal-line versus Everton (200150). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W5-D0-L5) looks to rebound in the English Premier League after a 3-0 loss to Manchester United last Saturday. Everton (W4-D2-L4) has lost three in a row after a 2-1 loss to Wolverhampton on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: This is half an “In Antonio Conte We Trust” —  but the manager has earned this level of respect when taking over clubs. The Hotspurs sacked Nuno Espirito Santo last week after he failed to achieve results with this squad. I like Nuno — but perhaps his style is not a good fit with the blue bloods on the Hotspur squad. Dealing with egos has not been a problem with Conte who has had an immediate impact on his new teams in the past. He won the EPL title in his first season with Chelsea winning 30 of 38 matches. He then took over Juventus an improved team from 7th place to winning the Scudetto Serie A title. The Conte impact is instantaneous. In his first 10 matches with Chelsea, the team went W7-D1-L2 with four clean sheets. They scored 16 goals and allowed nine. In his first ten matches with Juventus, he went W5-D5-L0 with four clean sheets. They scored 16 goals and allowed seven. In his first ten matches with Inter Milan in his last stint, they went W8-D1-L1 with four clean sheets. They scored 21 goals and allowed 10 goals. This remains a talented Hotspurs squad that reached the UEFA Champions League Finals only two years ago. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min still lead a talented side that seems uninspired under Nuno. The Spurs' first match under Conte resulted in a 3-2 win against Vitesse in the Europa League on Thursday. They should play better in this match. Everton has lost three in a row with injuries mounting to expose a roster lacking in depth. The Toffees have lost the expected goals battle in four straight English Premier League matches. They remain with striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure.

FINAL TAKE: Everton has lacked a home pitch advantage with their 9 points derived from a W3-D0-L2 record betrayed by an expected points mark of 7.63. Tottenham has the talent edge — and I expect a Conte bounce. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Tottenham (200149) with the goal-line versus Everton (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Manchester City (200125) and Manchester United (200126). THE SITUATION: Man City (W6-D2-L2) looks to rebound in the English Premier League after suffering a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace last Saturday. Man United (W5-D2-L3) looks to build off their 3-0 victory at Tottenham in their most recent EPL match last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was blanked for just the second time in their ten EPL matches this season. The Citizens are third in the league with 20 goals — and their expected goals mark of 22.12 is the second-highest in the EPL. They are averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game in the English top flight. They had scored 13 combined goals in their previous four matches in the EPL and UEFA Champions League before failing to score last week against Crystal Palace. Aymeric LaPorte’s red card at the 45+2 mark of the first half did not help their cause as it left them playing catching with just ten players for the rest of the match. The Man City attack rebounded on Wednesday in the Champions League with their 4-1 win at home against Club Brugge. The Citizens generated 4.26 expected goals in the victory. Generating scoring chances has not been a problem for manager Pep Guardiola’s team. The play of the defense, however, has been off this campaign. Man City has allowed at least one goal in four straight matches in the EPL and Champions League — and they have just one clean sheet in their last seven matches in the EPL and Champions League (excluding lesser-tiered contests) this season. Not having LaPorte on the backline with him suspended handicaps their defense even more. Man United rallied around embattled manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in their shutout victory against the Spurs last week — but Tottenham generated 1.38 expected goals (xG) in the loss. The Red Devils have scored at least two goals in four of their last five matches. They come off a 2-2 draw at Atalanta on Tuesday in the Champions League. But it is the play of the defense that has Solskjaer on the hot seat. Man United is 11th in the EPL by allowing 15 goals this season — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 16.31 is 14th in the league. The Red Devils have only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have conceded at least 1.21 xGA in nine straight matches. Furthermore, they have allowed multiple goals in four of their last five matches in all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw have been out of form all season with speculation being that they are tired after playing critical roles in England’s run to the finals in the Euro 2020 this summer. Man United acquired Raphael Varane to solid their defense before the season started but the former Real Madrid center back is out with an injury leaving the Red Devils backline even more vulnerable. Both teams should score in this one with at least two goals necessary for a potential victory. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Manchester City (200125) and Manchester United (200126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Ajax (224249) with the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224250) in Group C of the UEFA Champions League. Ajax (W3-D0-L0) leads Group C with a perfect 3-0 record after their 4-0 victory at home in Amsterdam against Borussia Dortmund in the reverse fixture on October 19th. Borussia Dortmund (W2-D0-L1) is in second place in Group C with the top two teams advancing to the Knockout Stage.

REASONS TO TAKE AJAX WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund will have revenge on their mind after getting embarrassed two weeks ago — but they are ravaged with injuries. The Blue and Yellows are dependent on their superstar Erling Haaland but he has missed the last three matches with a thigh injury. Haaland averages 1.36 expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes this season — there may not be another team in the Champions League this season who is more dependent on one player. His substitute at striker, Donyell Malen, averages only 0.25 expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes. But Borussia Dortmund will be out another three players and four more players are in doubt to play this match. The Blue and Yellows have won three straight matches since the Haaland injury — but the competition has been soft. Two of the victories were against FC Cologne (on Saturday) and Arminia who are in 11th and 19th place in the Bundesliga — and their third win was against a lower-tiered domestic team in German Cup action. Ajax will not be looking past this team after enduring a disappointing 0-0 draw at Heracles on Saturday. The Sons of Gods have still won four of their last five matches with four clean sheets over that span. Ajax is a possession-dominant machine under manager Erik ten Hag. They have won eight of their first eleven matches in the Eredivisie top-flight league in the Netherlands. But this side is not just a domestic league giant. The Soccer Power Index at FiveThirtyEight ranks them 5th in the world. They have scored 11 goals in the Champions League which is just behind Bayern Munich. They lead all Champions League sides with 8.8 expected goals — and they lead all teams in this competition in expected goals differential. They are fourth in shots per 90 minutes and are tied for the lead in the competition in overall average shot quality. They crushed Sporting Lisbon by a 5-1 score on the road in Champions League earlier this season — a side that Borussia Dortmund won by just a 1-0 score with a healthy Haaland on the pitch. Sporting Lisbon is good — they won the Portugal Premier League last year that included a quality Porto side that reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League.

FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund has scored 27 goals in the Bundesliga — but their expected goals drop to 21.13. That is the impact of the technical prowess of Haaland. He accounted for four of the Blue and Yellows ten shots in the first meeting between these teams last month. 25* UEFA Champions League Group C Match of the Month with Ajax (224249) with the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Manchester United (200078). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D3-L0) remained unbeaten in the English Premier League with their 5-0 win at Watford last Saturday. Manchester United (W4-D2-L2) is winless in their last three EPL matches after a 4-2 loss at Leicester City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I thought I was endorsing Liverpool in this match before my final deep dive. The Reds’ offense is clicking on all cylinders. Roberto Firmino is back in form after registering a hat trick against Watford last week. But it is Mo Salah who is the straw that stirs the drink. Salah may be the best striker in the world — and he may very well be in the form of his life right now having scored in nine straight matches across all competitions. He recorded a brace on Tuesday in Liverpool’s 3-2 win on the road against defensive juggernaut Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League. In the EPL, the Reds lead the league in expected goals (xG), Big Chances (35%+ expected success rate), shot attempts, and shots in the box. And on the road, Liverpool has scored at least three goals in nine straight matches across all competitions including seven straight in the EPL. But I decided that the Over is the better play because the Reds’ defense is not quite in top form. After being ravaged with injuries on their backline last season, manager Jurgen Klopp has a healthy roster once again. But Liverpool has only registered one clean sheet in their last five matches. The cohesion is not quite the same in back as it was with the same group in their EPL championship run two seasons ago. They allowed Atletico Madrid — not an offensive juggernaut — to register 1.94 xG midweek. Manchester United can score goals. They have scored five goals in their last two matches after their 3-2 come-from-behind win against Atalanta in the Champions League on Wednesday. With Cristiano Ronaldo back in the fold with his old club, the Red Devils have an abundance of riches of scoring options as he complements what was already a potent group led by Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, and Marcus Greenwood. But the defense for this team has been shaky all season. Man United’s expected goals allowed (xGA) mark is the worst of the top-eight teams in the league. They have allowed their last six opponents to register at least 1.21 xG across all competitions — and their last two opponents have scored six goals. While the teams spend bundles of money on high-priced forwards like Ronaldo, they still lack quality defensive midfielders that they need to make deep runs at an EPL or European Championship.

FINAL TAKE: Man United struggles against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. They are at their best when they can play the cagey, counter-attack approach as they will in this one. Another reason why I was reticent to take Liverpool in this match. The Reds have scored at least nine goals in nine straight matches — and they have scored 30 goals in their last eight EPL matches. This should be a wild one. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Manchester United (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200173) and Newcastle United (200174). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W0-D2-L2) comes off a 3-0 loss to Liverpool last Sunday. Newcastle United (W0-D1-L3) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss at Manchester United.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds was blanked against Liverpool — one of the best teams in the world — but Pascal Struijk getting a red card in the 60th minute leaving the Peacocks playing with just ten men for 30 minutes in that match did not help their cause. Leeds has still scored at least two goals in six of their last eight matches in the English Premier League going back to last season. The Peacocks play an aggressive all-out attack under manager Marco Bielsa. But these tactics do leave them vulnerable on defense. Leeds has allowed 11 goals in their four matches which is tied for the second-most in the EPL. Bielsa is not going to park the bus — it will be go-go-go against the Magpies. They allowed the Reds to generate 4.57 expected goals (xG) on Sunday. Leeds improved with their play on defense when playing at home in the second half of the season — but they consistently struggled to stop opposing attacks when playing on the road. The Peacocks were last in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing on the road last season. They ranked a respectable eighth in the league in xG when playing on the road. Leeds has not been as explosive this season in their attack but they did score in both their road matches. The underlying metrics for Patrick Bamford and Raphinha remain good -- the best two attacking players in the starting XI. Newcastle has scored in seven of their last eight EPL matches going back to last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive style with his team playing on their front foot. In their two matches at home this season, the Magpies have scored at least two goals in both contests — and both those home matches saw four and six combined goals scored. Newcastle may have the worst defense in the league — the 12 goals they have allowed are the most in the EPL. Bruce will not have the services of Callum Wilson at forward for this match as he deals with a thigh injury — but Wilson was slowed by an injury last spring as well but that did not slow down the reinvigorated Magpies attack.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights (and soccer matches) — and both these teams will be looking to attack. In the last six meetings between these two teams, at least three combined goals have been scored four times. In their two EPL matches last year, ten combined goals were scored with both matches seeing at least three combined goals. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200173) and Newcastle United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (224253) with the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224254). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (0-0-0) begins their Champions League campaign coming off a semifinals loss to Chelsea in this European competition last season. Inter Milan (0-0-0) failed to advance out of the Group Stage in last year’s Champions League in a group that included these Los Blancos.

REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos are a pick ‘em or a +0.25 goal-line underdog in this match because of injuries. Left-back Ferland Mendy and midfielder Dani Ceballos have yet to take the pitch for them this season. Real Madrid was also missing Gareth Bale, David Alaba, Toni Kroos, and Luka Jovic from their 5-2 victory at home against Celta Vigo in La Liga action on Sunday. To compound matters, veteran left tackle Marcelo suffered a thigh injury in Monday’s training session. New manager Carlo Ancelotti will likely be without seven starters for this match. But this is still Real Madrid — they are one of the few clubs in the world where their B-team backups would be serious threats to reach the Knockout Stage of this competition. And they still have regular starters Karim Benzema, Eden Hazard, and Vinicius Jr. as a scoring threat, the sublime Luka Modric patrolling the midfield along with new signee Eduardo Camavinga. Los Blancos have an embarrassment of riches of talent up and down their roster — and the bench players salivate at the opportunity to prove themselves in moments like this. Real Madrid’s form has been quite good despite the injuries. They are in first place in La Liga with three wins and a draw in their first four matches. Los Blancos dealt with a bevy of injuries last season so the roster is experienced. The club did move on from legendary manager Zinedine Zidane but they replaced him with another legend in Carlo Ancelotti who led this franchise to the Champions League title in 2013-14. Ancelotti proved his managing chops are still sharp with Everton in the English Premier League last season. Inter Milan comes off winning their first Serie A campaign in over a decade last season. But this team lost their best player, Romelu Lukaku, who signed a big contract to return to Chelsea in the offseason. Lukaku was Nerazzuri’s offense last season — the forward scored 30 goals in Serie A. Yet Inter Milan was just third in Serie A in expected goals and fifth in Shot Creating Actions — not great numbers in the less competitive Italian top flight. They have a new manager as well in Simone Inzaghi who replaced a former EPL champion manager in Antonio Conte. Inter Milan won the Champions League in 2009-10 — but this franchise has not been at the same level ever since. They have only qualified for this event five times — and they have reached the Knockout Stage just twice since 2010. Nerazzurri had won their first two Serie A matches before settling for a 2-2 draw at Sampdoria on Sunday. Inter Milan is just fifth in the league in expected points — and they are just seventh in expected goals which fuel my concern that their offensive attack takes a big step back without Lukaku. Inzaghi is without starting defender Alessandro Bastoni with a thigh injury. Perhaps the market is influenced by Inter Milan defeating Real Madrid in four of their last six opportunities to host them. But Los Blancos have won four of their last five meetings with Nerazzuri in European competitions. Real Madrid was good on the road last year in La Liga with a W12-D1-L6 record and the best-expected goal differential in the league.

FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid won both matches against what seems like a better Inter Milan side in the Group Stage last season — and they controlled the expected goals by a 3.30-0.94 mark. La Liga is the second-best professional league in the world while Serie A is probably fourth. The worst-case scenario for Los Blancos is likely a draw. Let’s take our chances. 25* UEFA Champions League Group D Match of the Month with the Real Madrid (224253) with the goal-line versus the Inter Milan (224254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W0-D0-L1) opened the 2021-22 English Premier League season with a 4-2 loss to West Ham United last Sunday. Aston Villa (W0-D0-L1) lost at Watford by a 3-2 score last Saturday in their opening EPL match of the season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle struggled with their defensive play against the Hammers last week — they allowed double the number of Big Chances in that match than the EPL club that allowed the second-most Big Chances in Week One. The Magpies blew 1-0 and 2-1 leads in the contest. Newcastle continued the more aggressive style of play that manager Steve Bruce embraced at the end of last season. The Magpies scored 12 goals in their last five EPL matches — and they scored nine goals in their last four EPL matches on the road. With the signing of Joe Willock from Arsenal to join Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, Newcastle has some exciting attacking talent — and Willock is in the starting XI today. Aston Villa struggled to generate scoring chances last week before newcomer Danny Ings drew a penalty that led to his goal from the line in the seventh minute of extra time after the 90th minute. The Villans are replacing midfielder Jack Grealish who signed with Manchester City — and forward Ollie Watkins is out with an injury. Yet Aston Villa still has attacking talent. Ings is one of the best finishers in the EPL after serving as the Southampton talisman the last few seasons. The Villans signed Emi Buendia from Norwich City to replace Grealish’s place on the pitch. He averaged 0.34 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes in the Championship League last year. They also signed Leon Bailey who will get the start after he came off the bench last week. Their attack should improve after a week of training with their new players. Defense is the bigger concern for Villa. They have allowed at least 1.0 expected goals in 12 straight EPL matches — and they conceded at least 2.0 expected goals in three of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa has seen at least three combined goals in four straight EPL matches — and they have seen at least three combined goals in ten of their last eleven EPL contests. Newcastle has seen at least three combined goals in seven of their last eleven EPL matches. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W0-D0-L0) looks to build on their sixth-place finish last season in the English Premier League. Newcastle (W0-D0-L0) finished last year in 12th place in the EPL, 17 points clear of relegation.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham concluded their EPL campaign last year by going unbeaten in four of their last five games. They scored six goals in their final two matches. The Hammers are much better when their striker Michail Antonio is healthy and leading their attack as he was at the end of last season. West Ham was sixth in the EPL last year with 37.2 expected goals (xG). The attack led by Antonio has been in good form in the preseason — they defeated a talented Atalanta side from Series A by a 2-0 score before blowing out Celtic from La Liga by a 6-2 margin. But the Hammers defense remains an issue under manager David Moyes. They have not had a clean sheet in their last seven road matches in league play — and they surrender eight goals in their last five EPL road contests. Newcastle won three of their last four games to safely avoid relegation last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive attack. Having a healthy Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin up top offers this team finishing talent. The Magpies scored ten goals in their final four league games. In their final 11 matches in the EPL, Newcastle was third in generating Big Scoring Chances (with a 35% or better chance of success) and fourth in expected goals. But defense is also an issue for this team. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 37.2 in the second half of the season was the fifth most. They also only had two clean sheets at home. That is not a good sign for a team that will have to use their third-string keeper in Freddie Woodman given injuries to their top-two keepers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 17th when Newcastle won by a 3-2 score. Expect another higher-scoring contest between these two teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after finishing in third place in the English Premier League last season. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) was promoted back to the English top-flight after winning the Championship League last season.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City was last in the EPL two years ago when they finished in last place with a mere 21 points in 38 matches. There was a clear talent disparity between the Canaries and even mid-table teams. Norwich City responded by winning the Championship League — but they were fortunate. While they allowed only 36 goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) rose to a 52.5 mark which was ninth-worst in the league. That team also had the services of Emi Buendia who scored 15 goals and added 17 assists. The midfielder transferred to Aston Villa last week as that team made moves to compensate for the loss of Jack Grealish who signed a big contract with Manchester City. The Canaries will miss the 3.1 chances per game that Buendia provided — he was involved in 43% of the goals they scored last season. To compound matters, manager Daniel Farke is dealing with a COVID outbreak in the locker room leaving the team undermanned for their return to the EPL. Liverpool is rested for this match with star players like Mo Salah and Sadio Mane not involved with summer competition with their national teams. Injuries on their backline held the Reds back last season. And don’t underestimate the impact the compacted schedule due to COVID had on this team after a two-year run of winning the English Premier League title and competing deep into two Champions League campaigns. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side ended strong by going unbeaten in their last ten matches — and they won their last five contests. Liverpool also grabbed 19 of the possible 21 points in their final seven road contests.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six trips to Carrow Road to play Norwich City. While I don’t usually like taking heavy road favorites in the EPL, the Reds enter this season with a chip on their shoulder. Rested and ready — with more talent and in better health — the Reds should roll. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Month with Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Mexico (234201) minus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — so that was a big triumph for the United States. The top-ten players from that roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been pretty good in this tournament — with the benefit of playing on home soil. But they were shaky against Qatar on Thursday. The Maroon dominated play for much of that game while outshooting the Yanks by an 18-6 margin. It was a goal from Gyasi Zardes in the 86th minute to win that match. Six of the Americans’ ten goals were against Martinique, the minnows of this tournament. Winning this event will be icing on the cake for Berhalter. For this Mexico team, manager Gerardo “Tito” Martino has described winning this tournament as “an obligation” given the level of excitement in the country. While El Tri does not have some of their top players like Chicharito Hernandez and Raul Jimenez are not on this roster, Martino probably has assembled the B+ team to defend their 2019 Gold Cup title. Since the loss to the Americans in June, El Tri did not concede a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.

FINAL TAKE: This match will be played in Las Vegas at the new Allegiant Stadium — but the USMNT will not retain a familiarity edge since none of them have ever played on that pitch. I am not sure if the crowd advantage will be overwhelmingly pro-USA either with many fans expected to cheer for Mexico. The El Tri roster is more experienced and more talented than what the Yanks have in this tournament. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Mexico (234201) minibus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Let’s not read too much into the offensive assault by El Tri against a La Selecta side that was missing a handful of players (including a few starters) from a COVID outbreak. El Tri has struggled to generate goals in this tournament with only four goals in their three Group Stage matches — including three goals against a Guatemala side that was one of the minnows in this tournament. Scoring looked to be the biggest challenge for manager Gerardo Martino’s side with Raul Jimenez training for his return to Wolverhampton in the English Premier League. Martino could have turned to Javier Hernandez — but his ongoing personal feud with Chicharito appears to have played a role in the 33-year old not being invited to compete. Perhaps Martino wanted to use this event to embrace his younger players? But the plan was thwarted somewhat in their opening when Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury. While the clinical scoring talent on this team is diminished, Mexico remains quite stout on defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. El Tri has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month. Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. Herdman is likely to engage in defensive tactics with the hopes of eking out a low-scoring match — and he would happily take his chances with penalty kicks to resolve the match.

FINAL TAKE: Canada had allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score goals — but none of those teams registered more than once including the United States. They held Costa Rica to just five shots with none on target in what was likely a harbinger as to how they will attempt to play this match given their injuries. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico (234524) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W2-D0-L1) comes off a 1-0 loss to Costa Rica in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. The USMNT (W3-D0-L0) earned a perfect record in the Group Stage with their 1-0 win against Canada last Sunday. This match will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Stars and Stripes were not really tested before the match with Canada last week in this tournament. Haiti and Martinique were not competitive in the Group Stage. And while Team USA scored in the opening minute against the Canucks, they looked shaky on defense in the second half of that match. The Americans also lost a key member of their backline when captain Walker Zimmerman left the game in the first half with an injury that will keep him out the rest of the tournament. Zimmerman was the 2020 MLS Defensive Player of the Year — so his absence is a big loss. Manager Gregg Berhalter was already relying on younger players for this event with the key players from the group that won the CONCACAF Nations League title last month now training for their professional leagues in Europe. This is a B team competing for the Gold Cup — there is no Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Zack Stefan, and Josh Sargent on this roster. The top ten players on the roster, as rated by the transfer market analytics, are not playing in this event. Team chemistry and cohesion — as well as experience in international competitions — remain question marks. Jamaica has an experienced roster made up of a core of players that have reached three straight Semifinals in the Gold Cup. While they lost their last match to Costa Rica last week, manager Theodore Whitmore was able to rest players since they had already qualified for the Knockout Stage. The Reggae Boyz get Bobby Reid back for this match after being on the COVID list — he has recent English Premier League experience. Wing Leon Bailey plays for Bayer Leverkusen. Forward Corey Burke, defenseman Alvas Powell, and keeper Andre Blake all star for Philadelphia Union in the MLS.

FINAL TAKE: Jamaica will be confident they can pull the upset against this roster of Americans after their recent experiences against them in this tournament. They lost to the Stars and Stripes by a 3-1 score in the 2019 Gold Cup Semifinals only after Pulisic scored his second goal in the 87th minute. Pulisic is not playing today. The Reggae Boyz lost to the USMNT in the 2017 Semifinals by just a 2-1 score —and they upset them in the 2015 Gold Cup Semifinals by a 2-1 score. They may not win, but they should keep it close with extra time a distinct possibility. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W1-D0-L0) comes off a 1-0 win against Haiti in their opening match in this competition on Sunday. Martinique (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss to Canada in their opening match in Group B play on Sunday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gregg Berhalter chose an inexperienced starting XI on Sunday — and he will likely continue with that approach tonight against the small Caribbean nation. Berhalter’s goal is to help establish more reliable depth for the Stars and Stripes to call upon as they continue their World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar next fall. And the teams’ best players like attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, striker Josh Sargent, and midfielder Giovanni Reyna are not on the roster given their professional responsibilities for their European professional league training. This roster only began training together last week — so chemistry and cohesion in the attack may take some time to develop. The Stars and Stripes loan goal on Sunday was from defender Sam Vines may his first start in international competition — and it was against a shorthanded Haiti side missing five players after a COVID outbreak on the team. Attacker Paul Arriola had to leave that match with a hamstring injury after 14 minutes into the contest — so I really do not know about the attacking talent that Berhalter will have at his disposal. Berhalter wants his team to press and control possession — and this helps for them to overwhelm lesser opponents. They have now generated clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches on home soil — and they have conceded only four times in those ten matches. Martinique scored first in their 4-1 loss to Canada but that was from a miscue by the Canucks that afforded Emmanuel Riviere that scoring chance. Les Matinino was playing for the first time since November of 2019 given the pandemic and their limited resources. In their final two home-and-home matches against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League in the fall of 2019, they only scored one time — but they conceded just twice. Martinique’s loss to Canada was just their second defeat in their last five matches — and they only lost that one match to Honduras in their five CONCACAF Nations League contests. Manager Mario Bocaly will have his team play cautiously — and what his team lacks in international competition, they make up for in cohesion since most play domestically in Martinique.

FINAL TAKE: Canada is a potent attacking side — so the four goals that Les Matinino allowed may speak more about the Canadiens than it does about Martinique’s defensive quality. They should play better with a match now under their belt against hostile competition for the first time in 20 months. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250) on Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match on Saturday. Guatemala (W0-D0-L1) lost to El Salvador in their opening match by a 2-0 score on Sunday. This match will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico peppered Trinidad and Tobago with 30 shots in that opening match on Saturday — but only seven were on target. Manager Gerardo Martino lost one of his best offensive players in that match with Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffering a head injury that will keep him out for the rest of the tournament. El Tri is already without their best striker in Raul Jimenez who remains out after suffering a significant head injury playing for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League in the fall. Mexico may not have the firepower — and the cohesion in their attack — to score more than three goals in this match. But El Tri will likely earn their fifth straight clean sheet. Mexico has not allowed a shot on target in three straight matches. Guatemala was given a second chance to compete in this tournament when Curacao had to drop out the day before the event started because of a COVID outbreak. Los Chapines had lost their final qualifying match to compete in this tournament in a heartbreaking 10-9 loss via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score with Guadeloupe on July 6th. Guatemala played El Salvador tough on Sunday with that match being scoreless until La Selecta scored their first goal in the 81st minute. Interim manager Rafael Loredo will have his team park the bus — this team had not allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 2-0 loss to Paraguay in June 2019. Furthermore, Los Chapines have allowed only three goals in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have a good goalkeeper in Nicholas Hagen who has five clean sheets himself in 2021.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on September 30th with Mexico winning by a 3-0 score. That seems the worst-case scenario score for the Guatemalans who have gained in chemistry and cohesion from their summer experiences. El Tri has a sketchy recent past in second-round matches in the Group Stage of the Gold Cup with only one win and two 0-0 draws. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.

REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. And while Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going, they have generated 2.24 expected goals per match in their three Knockout Stage matches. Italy was outplayed by Spain according to the analytics with them losing the expected goals battle by a 1.74-0.78 xG margin. La Roja exposed a vulnerability of the Azzurri down the middle with their savvy veteran pair of center backs Leonardi Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini being talented but both have lost a step or two. England has better finishing talent at forward with the likes of Harry Kane and the in-form Raheem Sterling (amongst an embarrassment of riches of talent). Italy was outstanding in the Group Stage — but they did benefit from a weak trio of competitors in Turkey, Wales, and a solid but unspectacular Switzerland side. They needed extra time against Austria before catching a break against Belgium in the Quarterfinals with them playing with Eden Hazard. Italy is also without left back Leonardo Spinazzola who suffered a ruptured Achilles against Belgium. Not only does Spinazzola important to their backline, but he played an important role in the Italian attack as a left wing.

FINAL TAKE: England has the advantage playing on their home soil — so they have a familiarity edge along with the home crowd and referees responding to the cheering fans. Ultimately, the talent on England’s roster is superior to that of Italy. The English Premier League outshines Serie A currently. And the Three Lions have been building to this moment since their Round of 16 finish in the 2016 Euro before reaching the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup. Italy failed to qualify for the most recent World Cup. 25* Euro 2020 Match of the Year with England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These are the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament — and while both sides also have surrounded the fewest goals in this event, neither has played an opponent as explosive as they will tonight. I think both defenses will be exposed. Argentina only scored once against a counter-attacking Colombia side in the Semifinals — but they generated a healthy 2.45 expected goals (xG). La Albiceleste has scored 11 times in this event — but their xG rises to 15.92 for a robust 2.66 xG per match average. Lionel Messi leads the way with four goals and five assists. He is averaging 1.18 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. I do not see Brazil blanking the Barcelona star even though he has yet to score a goal in his career against them. He has a good thing going with Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez who has scored in three straight matches. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack. Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. And while the Selecao has only conceded two goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is more than twice that at 5.15.

FINAL TAKE:  While finals can often evolve into cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I suspect that this match may be lively. Messi is in as top-notch form as he has ever been playing for his national team — and he has a younger and more athletic supporting cast than he has had in recent years. Brazil is a powerhouse that has underachieved its metrics despite averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D1-L0) has won four straight matches with their 3-0 victory against Ecuador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. Colombia (W2-D1-L2) outlasted Uruguay by a 4-2 count in the penalty kick shootout after a scoreless match after regulation time in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE ARGENTINA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia pulled a surprising upset against Uruguay — but they are underachieving in this tournament. They limped into this tournament with two losses in World Cup qualifying matches — and they have now only won three of their last seven matches. They lost to Peru and settled for a scoreless draw against Venezuela in matches they were favored to win. They have only scored three times in their five matches. The starting XI missed their star midfielder James Rodriguez after he was left off the roster because of the calf injury that kept him out of the last two matches for Everton in the English Premier League. They managed only 0.61 expected goals against Uruguay on Saturday. They only generated 0.29 expected goals in their final Group Stage match against Brazil. Argentina is rounding into form with seven goals in their last two matches while allowing just one goal. Lionel Messi has scored four goals and assisted on four other goals in his five matches in this tournament. La Albiceleste has scored 10 times while conceding just twice — and they notched an impressive clean sheet against Uruguay, who is probably the third-best team in the tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Messi has still not led Argentina to a major championship — so he should be very motivated to lead his team to a title match with Brazil. 25* Copa America Semifinals Match of the Year with Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. And while Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16, the fact is that the Azzurri has allowed goals in their last two matches. In hindsight, perhaps the Italian defense was overrated a bit after a relatively easy group that included Turkey, Wales, and a solid Switzerland side. Italy conceded 1.86 expected goals against a Belgium team that was without Eden Hazard. Spain has scored 12 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 17.58 are most in the tournament. La Roja leads all teams in touches in the opponent’s penalty area, completed passes, and pass accuracy — and they are second in the event in shot-creating actions (to Italy). The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: The Italy backline lost one of its key players with left back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles’ tendon in the second half of the match with Belgium. These two teams have had the top two attacks in this event — and they will both play aggressively. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 25* Copa American Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.

REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had Sweden in that Round of 16 match with Ukraine. The Yellow-Blue took the lead with a goal from Oleksandr Zinchenko in the 27th minute before the Swedes tied the score 16 minutes later. Sweden outplayed Ukraine for most of the match but could not score the winning goal in regulation (ruining our play). But the Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. Rather fortunate, once again. Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third. England is loaded with talent. Manager Gareth Southgate has his team playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. And while the Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt, the highest mark of the eight teams in the quarterfinals. With wins over Germany, Croatia, and the Czech Republic, England has defeated three opponents that made the Knockout Stage and who would all probably defeat this Ukraine side.

FINAL TAKE: Take away the 21 minutes when they had the man advantage against Sweden along with their match against North Macedonia (perhaps the worst team in the tournament) — Ukraine has a -3.19 expected goal differential. They should finally get exposed this afternoon. 25* Euro 2020 ABC-TV Match of the Year with England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. But La Roja are vulnerable to the counter-attack when they do lose possession. While they have conceded only four goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) jumps to 6.58 xGA. They may be giving up only 6.0 shots per match, but these shots are high quality. In their four matches, their opponents are averaging 0.27 expected goals (xG) per shot. In their Golden Generation run in winning the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, and the 2012 Euro, the Reds allowed only 0.06 xG per shot. And while they took a step back in the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Euro, 2018 World Cup cycle from a competitive standpoint, they still held their opponents to just 0.14 xG per shot. In this Euro, their opponents have managed to take 10 shots that had an expected goal success rate of 0.3 or higher. In those three major international tournaments from 2014-2018, Spain conceded only 14 shots overall with an xG rating of 0.3 or higher. The Spanish defense — playing without Barcelona’s Sergio Ramos in the middle for the first time since 2004 — is vulnerable. Switzerland thrives in the counter-attack. They are fourth in this tournament in passes that lead to shots. They are fifth for the most touches in the penalty area. They are fifth in most shot-creating actions. But the Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and this should be a higher-scoring affair. Spain will control possession once again — and they will pepper the Swiss with plenty of shot attempts. But Switzerland should score at least once on the counter-attack on this susceptible Reds defense that is learning how to live without Ramos leading them in the back. 25* Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W2-D1-L0) enters the Knockout Stage after their 3-2 win against Poland last Wednesday. Ukraine (W1-D0-L2) comes off a 1-0 loss to Austria eight days ago on June 21st. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland.

REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Sweden is solid if unspectacular. RB Leipzig midfielder Emil Forsberg is the real deal. The Blue and Yellow have two exciting young players in 17-year-old Alexander Isak and 20-year-old Dejan Kulusevski who play for Real Sociedad and Juventus. Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof is a quality center back. This is the Swedes’ sixth straight Euro. A scoreless draw with Spain is a quality result. Beating Slovakia and Poland are results much more impressive than a win against North Macedonia. This group has allowed only two goals in the Group Stage.

FINAL TAKE: The secret weapon of the Swedes in manager Janne Andersson who is on a five-year run with the national team including an improbable Quarterfinals run in the 2018 World Cup despite not having talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the squad. Sweden is a hotbed for soccer talent, and Andersson is a tactical wizard. The Blue and Yellow will outclass the Yellow-Blue. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Match of the Year with Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout Stage with their 3-1 win against Turkey in their last Group Stage match last Sunday. France (W1-D2-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: France is the reigning World Cup champions — and they have some of the best-attacking talents in the world in Paris-Saint Germain’s Kylian Mbappe and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema. But Les Bleus are a defensive-first team that prefers to generate offense on their counter-attack. This has been the recipe for success for manager Didier Deschamps in their 2016 Euro campaign when they lost in the Finals to Portugal and their World Cup championship team in 2018. France has scored only four times in this tournament in three matches — and only two of the goals were from open play. They benefited from Mats Hummels' own goal in their victory against Germany. They also got a penalty kick goal from Mbappe against Portugal. Even their lone goal against Hungary came from a bad gaffe from the Hungarians. France has generated only 4.5 expected goals in their three matches. This group seems to lack a plan to break down their opponent if they settle into a defensive posture (outside of hoping their elite talent will somehow find a way to score). Deschamps does not advance his fullbacks into an advanced position to complement the attack. And Barcelona forward Ousmane Dembele is injured taking away a super-sub attacking option for Deschamps. But the French defense remains immaculate. They have only allowed one goal from open play from their three games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored both of his goals on Wednesday from penalty kicks. Getting whistled for a penalty with the ball inside the box just does not happen very often. Switzerland lacks the dynamic scoring talent that tends to draw penalties either. The Swiss National Team only scored one goal against Wales and Italy before netting three goals against a suspect Turkey side. Xherdan Shaqiri scored twice in their match against the Turks — but the “Alpine Messi” has declined as a talent as a 30-year-old and rarely starts for Liverpool at this point in his career. The Swiss generate plenty of shots — they generated the third-most shots in the group stage. The problem is that the quality of shots is low — and they lack the talent to execute on these low-probability shots. The Rossacrociati have the fourth-lowest expected goals per shots attempt with many of their shots coming from long distance. But Switzerland remains a solid defensive side that will play disciplined fundamental defense. While they allowed five goals in their three matches, the expected goals allowed dropped to 4.4 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: It will be difficult for Switzerland to score against France — their expected goals of just 0.25 xG against Italy was telling. But I do not see Les Bleus score more than two goals in this match. Styles make fights — and neither of these teams is comfortable playing on their front foot. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162) in their Round of 16 match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Portugal (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout State of this tournament with their 2-2 draw with France on Wednesday. Belgium (W3-D0-L0) completed their perfect Group Stage with a 2-0 victory against Finland last Monday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville, Spain.

REASONS TO TAKE PORTUGAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Portugal is ranked 5th in the world by FIFA with the ELO Ratings that rely on head-to-head metrics confirming that fifth place world standing. I agree — and I think this is the best roster A Selecao has had since the 2010 World Cup when I started seriously handicapping international soccer. Portugal has won the 2016 Euro and reached the Knockout Stage of the 2018 World Cup. The quality of the national team’s roster was validated when they won the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019. Portugal survived the Group of Death with an impressive draw against the reigning World Cup champions in France in a result they had to have. The opened this tournament with an impressive 3-0 win against Hungary who later played France and Germany very tough. I don’t issue too many demerits for the Portuguese’s 4-2 loss to the Germans in their second Group Stage match. Germany is very good and they needed the win after losing their opening match to France. A Selecao’s path to the Knockout Stage was pretty much assured after they grabbed the three points from Hungary. With Cristiano Ronaldo who has been the talisman for this team since that 2010 World Cup, Portugal has one of the best players in the world still with tons of high-pressure experience. The nation is a hot bed of talent — and they have produced a new generation of great players like Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix, Paris-Saint Germain’s Danilo, and Man City’s Ruben Dias. This roster is so loaded that Manchester United’s key midfielder Bruno Fernandes may not be in the starting XI — but he will be a super sub if veteran manager Fernando Santos needs scoring in the second half of the match. A Selecao also has some key veterans from the 2016 Euro run in Man City’s Bernardo Silva, Porto’s Pepe in back, and keeper Rui Patricio. Belgium is also loaded with talent amidst their golden generation — but they have yet to earn silverware and I have yet to see them triumph in a big match. They lost to France in the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup after getting upset by an overmatched Wales team in the 2016 Euro. Eden Hazard has fitness issues — as it seems to have been the case for the last two years after transferring from Chelsea to Real Madrid. He has been a disappointment ever since (and the Blues never looked back after losing him after winning the Champions League last month). Kevin De Bruyne is sublime in the midfield — and he looks fit again — but their midfield group are not adept at forcing turnovers. The backline for the Red Devils is a vulnerability — their center backs are getting old and their wing backs are only average. Belgium looked great in the Group Stage — but Finland and Russia are weak opponents. Denmark looks better than I expected — but it is telling that the Red Devils lost the expected goals battle to the Danes playing without Cristian Eriksen by a 1.99-0.82 xG score. Portugal beat France in expected goals by a 2.36 to 1.81 xG margin.

FINAL TAKE: Portugal won the 2016 Euro despite only one victory in regulation time. I watched them over-and-over deploy defensive tactics to grind out low-scoring matches before Ronaldo would find a way to win — until the Finals when Ronaldo was injured but his teammates found a way to win. I think these defensive tactics will work against Belgium — they are the more experienced team in these matches. The Red Devils may win — but I suspect their route to victory is through extra-time or the final penalty kick tie-breaker and we will have covered at +0.25 goals (or pushed if you get a pick ‘em line) in regulation time. A Portugal upset win in regulation time is also very live for this one. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Match of the Year with Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154) in the Round of 16 in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Austria (W2-D0-L1) clinched their involvement in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 victory against Ukraine on Monday. Italy (W3-D0-L0) remained unscathed in the Euro 2020 with a 1-0 victory against Wales last Sunday. This match will be played on a  neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy has now not allowed a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the first three games. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season. Austria is a dangerous opponent. They have one of the most talented midfields in this tournament with RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg Xaver Schlager. Manager Franco Foda also has a jack-of-all-trades talent in David Alba who played left-back for Bayern Munich but has played in the midfield or left wing for his national team. Alba was poached by Real Madrid earlier this year — he is the wild card talent in this match. Das Team will play conservatively with the hopes of scoring on the counter-attack. They ranked second in the Group Stage by forcing turnovers in 38% of their pressures on the press. Italy may be vulnerable here — their three Group Stage opponents did not top a turnover percentage over 28% with their press in the opening three matches. Throw out their 3-1 result against an overmatched North Macedonia. Austria did not score against the Netherlands — but they held the Dutch to just two goals despite playing on their home soil in Amsterdam. They held Ukraine to just 0.36 expected goals but only scored once in that match.

FINAL TAKE: I considered Italy underrated entering this tournament — but I suspect the pendulum has turned the other way with their 3-0 start with a +7 goal differential. The Azzurri benefited from an easy group — and they have not played an opponent with as much quality as these Austrians in perhaps three years when they played Portugal (unless Poland or the Netherlands are better competition?). The Italians also played all three of their Group Stage matches on home soil in Rome. I expect their defense to travel — but the attack will be exposed with La Nazionale likely playing more cautiously in this match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D1-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw with England last Friday. Croatia (W0-D1-L1) also settled for a draw with their 1-1 result with the Czech Republic on Friday. This match will be played in Scotland’s home soil at Hampden Park in Glasgow.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Scoring looked to be a challenge for this Scotland team lacking in a dynamic attacker up front. Southampton’s Che Adams is a poacher — but he needs a creative partner up top (like Danny Ings with Southampton) to generate the chances that he can then pick up on. In midfielders Ryan Fraser, John Fleck, and John McGinn, the Tartan Army has capable players but who are not dynamic playmakers. So it is not a surprise that Scotland has yet to score a goal. And while their expected goals are at 3.0 in their first two matches, underachieving the expected goals tally is not uncommon for teams that lack quality finishers. Manager Steve Clarke has his team smartly embracing defensive tactics given these limitations — and they have only conceded two goals in this tournament. Clarke has moved defensive back Andy Robertson up top to a wing to help generate offense, but using players out of position is not ideal. But this team is playing quality defense. They have allowed only two goals — and they held a loaded English side to just seven shots, with only one on target. Croatia has scored just once — and they have generated only 1.6 expected goals in their two matches. The doldrums in the attack were on displaying in their tune-up matches to begin the month as well as they only scored once in their two friendlies against Belgium and Armenia. The Chequered Ones reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup — but forward Mario Mandzukic and midfielder Ivan Rakitic have since retired. Croatia still has talent in their midfield — led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric — but they lack comparable talent up top. This team simply looks uninspired with four straight losses and just two wins in their last eleven matches across all competitions. Frankly, this is a veteran team that knows they peaked in 2018. After a year-long busy schedule to fit everything in during a pandemic that delayed the end of the 2019-20 campaigns, this group may simply be tired.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams need the three points that will come with a victory. Because both sides are struggling to score goals, I suspect they will consider a 1-0 deficit to be devastating. Cautious play is likely — and if a team falls behind, expecting two goals to tie the game is probably overly optimistic. 25* Euro 2020 Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City advances to the Champions League Final with their 4-1 aggregate score victory against Paris-Saint Germain that culminated on May 4th. Chelsea reached the Finals with their 3-1 aggregate score win against Porto in the Champions League Semifinals that concluded on May 5th. This match is being played on a neutral field in Porto, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester City has the opportunity to coronate their dominance of European football with a victory in this match. They have already won the English Premier League title for the third time in the last four seasons by a dominant 14 point margin. But a European title is what has eluded this franchise under manager Pep Guardiola — and he has never won this trophy despite all his previous successes at Barcelona and Bayern Munich. This match means everything — and it is a long time coming for this squad to get the opportunity. Man City comes in ideal circumstances. They are healthy. They are in good form — their last match was an easy 5-0 win at home against Everton last Sunday. They are rested since Guardiola has had the luxury to rotate players to prepare for this showdown all month since they have had the EPL wrapped up for weeks. Chelsea has been a great story since Thomas Tuchel took over as their manager in late January — but cracks are finally showing with the weight of expectations hits this team. The Blues have lost three of their last four matches. For me, the canary in the coal mine was their 1-0 loss to Leicester City in the FA Cup Finals on May 15th. That is a match they should have won to win their first trophy under Tuchel. Instead, the team played tentative and looked overwhelmed by the moment. They avenged that loss three days later in an EPL match — but then in an important final EPL league match to secure placement in the Champions League next year, they laid an egg on the road against Aston Villa on Sunday in a 2-1 loss. This team is losing important recent matches. Chelsea is a team that is lacking in confidence right now. This is a very talented team — but their ascendance to the Champions League Final is perhaps premature to the realistic plan. After winning the EPL title in 2016-17 with a veteran team, the writing was on the wall that a youth movement would need to be embraced. That was the plan when former star player, Frank Lampard, was brought in as their manager last season. After an encouraging season amidst COVID where the younger players showed great promise, management brought in some high-priced transfers to add star power to the group. Kai Havertz and Timo Werner may have outstanding careers in the EPL — but their numbers were disappointing. They are still very young — and that is the rub about this team. While bursting with talent (albeit not necessarily more talented than Man City), this group is just inexperienced in big moments like this. Outside of the immaculate N’Gole Kante who has won EPL titles for Leicester City and Chelsea, as well as a World Cup for France, the Blues, are a roster filled with players that lack playing vital roles in championship runs either for their professional club or their national team. On the other hand, Man City is filled with players with tons of important matches during this four-year run under Guardiola.

FINAL TAKE: If there was any chance that Man City was taking this match lightly, those prospects are lone gone when considering that Chelsea has defeated them twice in the last six weeks. They played on April 17th in the FA Cup Semifinals — an important match — which the Blues won by a 1-0 score. They then played on May 8th in the EPL reverse fixture where Chelsea won again (and Man City did not go out of their way to not play important players) by a 1-0 score. Man City did win the expected goals battle in both those matches but just had bad luck with the final score. It will be very difficult for Chelsea to defeat this team three times in a row. Look for Man City to play one of their best matches in the Guardiola era to overwhelm a Blues side that may be happy to be here. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with the Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401) in the Finals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United reached the Finals of the Europa League after a 3-2 loss at home to Roma on May 6th which secured their 8-5 aggregate goal victory. Real Villarreal reached the Finals after a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on May 6th gave them a 2-1 aggregate score win. This match will be played on a neutral field in Gdansk, Poland.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The challenge in handicapping this match is assessing how significant a loss it is for Man United to likely be without Harry Maguire. Their starting center back has been out most of the month with a knee injury that kept him out of training for this match. The Red Devils' backline defense has looked disheveled without the stabilizing influence that Maguire provides. Maguire is also third in the English Premier League for the most carry yards with the ball going towards the opposition goal — he plays an undervalued in their attack despite not generating a ton of goals or assists. His loss is significant (and I assume he will not make a miraculous recovery, although it sometimes happens in these championship matches). Eric Bailly will likely take his place — he is a solid defender but not the same talent with the ball. Man United has only won twice in their last six matches — but I this team has not had much at stake since reaching the finals of this competition. They have pretty much had second place in the EPL clinched for the last few weeks. Even without an important piece in Maguire, this remains a team that finished ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea in the English Premier League, one team that won the EPL last year, and another club that is playing Man City on Saturday the European Champions League title. The EPL was — by far — the strongest league in Europe this year, and here comes their second-place team. And after manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer did not play his starters on Sunday in their 2-1 victory at Wolverhampton, his starters are rested and ready. Villarreal comes off a 2-1 loss at Real Madrid on Saturday which had them finish in sixth place in La Liga this season. The Spanish top flight was down this season — Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid did not find much success in European competitions. Man United dominated a Sevilla side by a 4-0 aggregate score in the Round of 32 of this tournament that finished in fifth place, four points clear of Real Villarreal. Manager Unai Emery deploys a conservative approach — the Yellow Submarine are not likely to be aggressive in attacking Man United missing Maguire on their backline.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, Manchester United still has too much talent on the pitch for Real Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine may not have one of their best players either with midfielder Samuel Chukwueze having not played since getting injured in the second leg against Arsenal. There is a difference in class between these two teams — even without Maguire — that makes a victory at least one goal in regulation time the likely result. 25* Europa League Match of the Year with Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W17-D8-L11) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Brighton on Saturday. West Brom (W5-D11-L20) looks to rebound from their heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Liverpool on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has played themselves out of the Champions League qualification but they remain motivated to win this match since those three points would ensure their involvement with the Europa League next season. That would be a nice accomplishment (and a source of new revenue) for the Hammers. The West Ham defense has waned as of late — they have not had a clean sheet in their last nine matches in the English Premier League. Over their last ten matches, they are allowing 1.65 expected goals per match (xGA). But the Hammers offense has been reliable to close out the season. They have scored 25 goals in their last 13 matches while posting a healthy 1.62 expected goals per match (xG). Getting Michail Antonio healthy and back on the pitch has helped. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. He has scored 14 goals in his last 14 matches on the road. West Ham has scored eight goals in their last four road matches. West Brom thought they earned a draw with last year’s EPL champs before the Liverpool keeper strode up the pitch in a desperate move to add another body in front of the net in the final moments of their match. Allison was unguarded and nailed a perfect header to give the Reds the surprise last-second victory. The Baggies are a mess on defense — the 70 goals they have allowed is five more than the second-worst defensive team in the league. With West Ham already relegated to the Championship League next season, West Brom is not likely to play cautiously in front of home fans in their final home match of the season. They have surrendered goals in five straight games. But the Baggies have scored in each of their last three games at home while totaling five combined goals during that span.

FINAL TAKE: West Brom has seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. West Ham has seen at least three combined goals scored in 61% of their matches this season — and they average 2.89 expected goals generated and allowed when the road. Both teams should score in this match in what could be a wild one. 25* English Premier League Midweek Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200066) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200065). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W18-D10-L8) returns to English Premier League action this afternoon after losing to Arsenal last Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Leicester City (W20-D6-L10) comes off a 2-0 victory against Manchester United last Tuesday in their most recent EPL match.

REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues are in a big revenge spot after getting upset against this Leicester City side on Saturday in the finals of the FA Cup. We had Chelsea in that match — so that result was a major disappointment. Yet, there was nothing from that match that changes my tune on the Blues for this rematch. Chelsea outshot the Foxes by a 13-6 margin while holding them to only one shot on target. Unfortunately, that one shot turned out to be a goal for Youri Tieleman. Expected goals data is  not available for FA Cup matches (or, I can’t find this data) — but from the numbers and the eye-test, the Blues out-played Leicester City. The biggest problem for them was — once again — a bad error by Jorginho opening up the scoring chance for their opponents. That is the second straight time that Jorginho made a crucial mistake as that is how Arsenal scored their goal last week. Jorginho will be benched for Mateo Kovacic who has been injured but was available over the weekend. These recent results should ensure an attentive locker room for manager Thomas Tuchel who has been an instant success at Stamford Bridge. Tuchel is taking a second team to the Champions League Final for the second straight season after leading Paris Saint-Germain to that championship game last summer. The Blues have only lost four times in 27 matches since Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard who was overmatched as the Chelsea skipper. I am not terribly surprised about the rise of this Blues team. They finished top-four in the English Premier League last summer with a nice core of young players. They then got out their checkbooks in the transfer window to bring in some of the best young European talents in the world in Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, and Hakim Ziyech. While perhaps each of those players has struggled at times adjusting to English Football during a pandemic (Havertz, in particular, overcame a tough bout with COVID that held back his conditioning in the fall). But the addition of these players gave Tuchel a roster simply loaded with talent. To his credit, Tuchel is a player’s coach who makes each player feel valuable with clear expectations of what he wants on the pitch. His implementation of a 3-4-2-1 formation made an immediate improvement in the defensive play of this team. Chelsea has 12 clean sheets in their 18 EPL matches under Tuchel. N’Golo Kante had a knock midweek for the match with Arsenal but he is expected to play this afternoon. Kante remains one of the best two or three holding midfielders in the world. What does the 2015-16 Leicester City EPL championship, the 2016-17 Chelsea EPL championship, and the France World Cup championship in 2018 all have in common? Kante. And the big advantage Tuchel has in this match is a rested and well-rotated roster of quality players. Leicester City is showing signs of fatigue. They lost eleven days ago at home to a Newcastle United side that barely escaped relegation. Losing sometimes happens on any given match day — but surrendering four goals to the Magpies with the Toon Army generated 3.49 xG is a bad sign. When the Foxes are at full strength, they are a dangerous team against any of the best teams in the EPL. But the continued absence of Harvey Barnes, James Justin, and Wes Morgan not only robs manager Brendan Rodgers of talent, but he has had to rely on his same starting XI match-after-match as they strive to not only win the FA Cup but also qualify for next year’s Championship League (and the money it brings in) by finishing in the top-four in the EPL table. The Foxes’ 2-1 win against Man United on Tuesday — but they benefited from facing a heavily-rotated Red Devils’ side that was playing the middle game of a brutal stretch of three matches in five days.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City is in an emotional letdown spot — while Chelsea will be motivated by revenge. The Blues need to win this match to stay one point ahead of Liverpool who is nipping at their tails to take the final qualifying spot for the Champions League next season. Chelsea just needs better luck to get the ball in the back of the opponnent’s net after being blanked in two straight matches. 25* English Premier League Tuesday Afternoon Special Feature with Chelsea (200066) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (200018) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200017). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W20-D10-L5) looks to rebound from a 2-1 loss at home to Leicester City on Tuesday. Liverpool (W16-D9-L9) looks to build off their 2-0 victory against Southampton on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is the third game in five days for Man United who had to make up a postponed game due to their Europa League responsibilities — and then this intended match from a week and a half ago was postponed given fan protests over the European Super League at Old Trafford. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer went with a young starting XI on Tuesday — he made ten changes to his normal lineup. This is the match that the Red Devils want to win — and in comes the A-Team after many of the key players either did not play or came on as late substitutes. Throwout Tuesday’s result which was Man United’s just second loss in their last 16 matches in the English Premier League. It was their first loss in the English top-flight since January 27th. Since the start of 2021, the Red Devils are second in the EPL with an average of 1.71 expected goals (xG) per match — and they are conceding just 0.87 expected goals (xGA). They have scored at least two goals in five of their last seven home matches at Old Trafford. They have won five of their last seven at home as well, even after Tuesday, with 22 goals scored and just eight conceded in those contests. Liverpool is fighting for their Championship League lives as they are currently in sixth place — still within striking distance after their win against Southampton. But that was just their first win in their last four matches across all competitions. It has been a lost season for manager Jurgen Klopp with his team ravaged by injuries — especially at center back where they have lost their top three players on their depth chart. The Reds are also observing down seasons from both Sadio Mane and Roberto Firminho which is leaving Mohamed Salah without scoring partners. Liverpool has looked listless in recent 1-1 draws against Leeds United and Newcastle United before beating the Saints.

FINAL TAKE: Man United is unbeaten at home in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions against Liverpool. They have fielded their best starting XI for this match, outside of not having Harry Maguire who got injured against the Foxes. A tough loss, but Eric Bailly is solid as a replacement on defense. Liverpool has not won at Old Trafford since 2013-14. These two teams settled for a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture on January 17th — and Man United won the last meeting in the FA Cup fourth round on January 24th by a 3-2 score at Old Trafford. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Manchester United (200018) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Crystal Palace (200001) plus the goal-line versus Southampton (200002). THE SITUATION: Crystal Palace (W11-D8-L15) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 2-0 victory at Sheffield United on Saturday. Southampton (W10-D7-L17) lost their 13th match in the English Premier League in their last 17 contests with their 2-0 loss at Liverpool on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE CRYSTAL PALACE PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Both of these teams are only playing for pride after the three teams destined for relegation to the Championship League were ensured with Fulham’s loss to Burnley yesterday. These May matches in the EPL are the games where some of these teams in no-man’s land hit the proverbial “beach” thinking about their summer plans rather than the matters at hand. Southampton seems to already be in beach mode. They only have one draw in their last five matches outside four setbacks. They have lost the expected goals (xG) battle in four straight matches. They have allowed at least two goals in six o of their last seven EPL matches. They are bottom-three in the league over their last six contests in Big Chances allowed and expected goals allowed (xGA). Injuries have riddled this team with the biggest loss being their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is dealing with a thigh muscle sprain. The tactics of manager Ralph Hassenhutl have left the healthy players on his roster exhausted. The aggressive pressing style has not been a good fit in the condensed schedule this season — and that has been compounded by the Saints staying alive in the FA Cup through last month. Liverpool has struggled with their endurance as well — and Man City’s success this season comes in large part from Pep Guardiola changing his tactics away from pressing all the time. Southampton is a tired team — and the record demonstrates this. Since their upset win against Liverpool on January 16th, the Saints have won only two of their 17 league matches with 13 losses. And in their last seven matches at home, they have only won once. Crystal Palace has little to play for as well — but they are a counter-attacking team that is in better fitness at this point of the season. They dominated Sheffield United over the weekend with 2.56 xG on offense. They were on a three-game losing streak — but they faced three of the top four teams in the EPL table in Chelsea, Leicester City, and Man City. The Eagles are a much better team with Wilfried Zaha healthy and on the pitch as he is now as the team’s top-scoring threat. Zaha has been injured for much of the season. Crystal Palace has scored in five straight EPL matches on the road — and they have a win and a draw in their last three road league contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles counter-attack should get scoring opportunities against the Southampton press. They won the reverse fixture on the opening weekend of the season on September 12th by a 1-0 score while also winning the xG battle, 1.61-1.27, in a match where the Saints’ had a healthy Danny Ings. The fatigue issue for Southampton has contributed to them being winless in their last ten midweek matches played on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with the Crystal Palace (200001) plus the goal-line versus Southampton (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Burnley (200093) plus the goal-line versus Fulham (200094). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W9-D9-L16) has lost four of their last five matches after their 2-1 loss to West Ham United last Monday. Fulham (W5-D12-L17) is winless in their last six matches after their 2-0 loss at Chelsea on May 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Clarets may have lost four of their last five, but they have won the expected goals (xG) battle in three of their last four matches. They were better than the Hammers in xG by a 2.24-2.17 margin last week — and that West Ham team is fifth in the EPL table this season. Manager Sean Dyche always gets the most out of his talent. Burnley is a gritty defensive team led by one of the best keepers in the English Premier League in Nick Pope. This formula has brought quality results for the Clarets for this team when playing on the road. Burnley has won four of their last eight matches away from home with victories against Liverpool, Everton, Wolverhampton, and Crystal Palace — and they conceded just one goal in those four contests. The Clarets are still not safe from relegation — they are in 17th place with a nine-point lead over Fulham. A victory cements their spot in the English top-flight next season. Burnley lacks elite talent given the finances of the franchise — but this is their fifth straight season in the EPL with Dyche leading the way. They finished in 10th place last year — and they were seventh place back in 2017-18. While the Clarets can struggle against the top teams, they usually take care of business against the bottom of the table. This is Last Chance Saloon for Fulham who must get three points to keep any hope of alive of staving off relegation — but that has been the case over the last month. After a surprising 1-0 victory at Liverpool that raised the hopes that manager Scott Parker could steer this team out of the relegation zone, the Cottagers have managed only one draw against Arsenal in their last six matches. Those were all must-win situations as well. Fulham lost the expected goals battle in four of those six games — so the results were pretty fair. This is simply a team without much talent — and they lack the same level of structure and defensive discipline that the Clarets offer. The Cottagers have the worst home record in the EPL — and they have lost four in a row at home. With just two victories at home at Craven Cottage in their 17 matches, getting paid from a draw is a very enticing proposition. Fulham lacks a potent offensive attack — they have been blanked at home in five of their last seven matches. They will have to be aggressive since they are desperate for the three points coming from a victory. The Burnley 4-4-2 counter-attacking formation should generate counter-attacking opportunities.

FINAL TAKE: Fulham is winless in their two matches against Burnley this season. They lost at home to the Clarets in FA Cup action back in January by a 3-0 score before setting for a 1-1 draw in the reverse EPL fixture at Turf Moor on February 17th. I would not be surprised with a Burnley victory, but a draw is also a likely outcome. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Burnley (200093) plus the goal-line versus Fulham (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W9-D9-L16) enters this match coming off a 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Sunday. Leicester City (W19-D6-L9) is unbeaten in their last four matches after a 1-1 draw at Southampton last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle was unbeaten in their previous four matches before getting blanked by the Gunners on Sunday. The Magpies have still scored in five of their last seven matches with their attack jump-started by the return of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin who had been injured for much of 2021. They had scored eight combined goals in their previous four matches before Sunday. They have scored three combined goals in their last two matches on the road. But defense remains an issue for manager Steve Bruce. They have allowed 11 goals in their last six matches — and they have conceded the most shots in the league over that span. With Newcastle in 17th place, grabbing points in this match helps them avoid relegation with Fulham currently in danger, nine points behind the Magpies. Leicester City is perhaps playing their most important month of the season since their English Premier League title run in 2015-16. They are currently in third place in the table fighting to finish in the top four to qualify for the UEFA Champions League next season. They also have an impending FA Cup title on the line when they play Chelsea next Saturday. Manager Brendan Rodgers elevation of forward Kelechi Iheanacho into the starting XI has brought new life into the Foxes’ attack. He has scored ten goals in his last nine contests as he complements Jamie Vardy who leads the team with 13 goals. This team is so much better when Vardy has help on the attack. Harvey Barnes is injured but James Maddison is back in the mix after missing time last month after violating COVID protocols. Leicester City has scored six goals in their last three matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last five games and 19 goals in their last nine while getting blanked just once. But the Foxes have conceded goals in their last two matches as well as in five of their last seven.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen six of their last seven games at home at King Power Stadium finish Over 2.5 goals. They won the reverse fixture on January 3rd at St. James Park. Expect a similar result this afternoon. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (224409) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224410) in the second leg in the Semifinals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United won the first leg of the semifinals with a 6-2 victory last Thursday. Roma must score at least four goals to make even the goal differential — a 4-0 or 5-1 score secures them the away goal tiebreaker, while a 6-2 result after regulation time would trigger an extra-time playoff.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United took an early lead against Roma last week before going into halftime with a 2-1 deficit. But then Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side put it into another gear by scoring five unanswered goals in the second half for the easy victory. The Red Devils generated 4.25 expected goals — so their offensive domination was not a fluke. Now with their match with Liverpool on Sunday postponed due to the fan protests at Old Trafford, Solskjaer’s group is rested and ready. Man United is in second place in the English Premier League which might overvalue their quality — they are not as good as Chelsea, and they are not as good as Liverpool despite the reigning EPL champions experiencing a down-year hit-hard by injuries. And they may not be as good as the Leicester City team that handed them their only loss since February in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. But the Red Devils are much better with a healthy (and engaged) Paul Pogba joining Bruno Fernandes in their midfield. Man United has now won 13 of their last 18 matches across all competitions. The Red Devils have been reliable on the road this season. They are second in the EPL with 37 points away from home with a W10-D7-L0 mark. They have won four of their last six matches on the road across all competitions. Roma is just not very good — and they are riddled with injuries and now playing for a lame-duck coach. They are winless in their last six matches across all competitions with four losses after losing at Sampdoria in Seria A competition by a 2-0 score on Sunday. Defeating Ajax in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League was a nice accomplishment for the Yellow and Reds — but they lost the expected goals (xG) battle in both contests to the Dutch side. In fact, they were dominated — they managed only 1.62 xG combined with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 4.43 xGA. Roma is only in seventh place in Serie A — a distant eight points behind the sixth-place Lazio. They have allowed at least three goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. They have conceded 2.5 xGA or higher in four of their last eight league matches despite not facing a tough schedule. They are not close to full strength at this point of the season either. First string goaltender Pau Lopez is out. Midfielders Jordan Veretout and Leonardo Spinazzola are doubts after suffering injuries against Man United last week. Amadou Diawara and Carles Perez are dealing with knocks from the Sunday match. To compound matters, manager Paulo Fonseca was informed he will not return to the franchise next fall with the upper brass hiring Jose Mourinho to be the new skipper earlier in the week.

FINAL TAKE: Man United may be overrated a tad — but they are still one of the better teams in the English Premier League. Roma is not as good, relatively, in Serie A which is vastly inferior to the EPL — and now they are playing for a lame-duck manager. The Red Devils have a busy EPL schedule coming up so they will be cautious with this match in hand — but since the Yellow and Reds must play aggressively to score at least four goals, the counter-attacking opportunities will be ever-present. Solskjaer’s teams at Man United have been at their most effective when able to sit back and counter-attack rather than playing on their front foot. 25* UEFA Europa League Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester United (224409) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw hosting the Blues in the first leg last Wednesday. Chelsea advances to the Finals with a win or a scoreless draw. Real Madrid advances with a win or a draw where at least two goals are scored. A 1-1 draw after regulation time forces extra time to determine a winner (and this extra time does not impact the totals bet which is resolved after regulation time).

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid comes off a 2-0 victory against Osasuna on Saturday in La Liga action. They held Osasuna to a microscopic 0.07 expected goals in that match. Los Blancos are unbeaten in their last 19 matches while allowing only nine goals during that span. They have surrendered only three goals in their five Knockout Stage matches in the Champions League. Manager Zinedine Zidane continues to deal with injuries in their backline with Raphael Varane, Dani Carvajal, and Lucas Vazquez dealing with knocks — but Sergio Ramos and Ferland Mendy appear to be healthy again. Real Madrid managed only 0.96 expected goals (xG) against Chelsea last week which was the lowest xG mark in their last 45 matches. The Blues have held their opponents across all competitions to just 0.58 xG since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager on January 27th. Chelsea has allowed only four goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League. They come off a 2-0 clean sheet victory at home against Fulham in the English Premier League on Saturday. The Blues have conceded just five times in their last 11 games at home across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea advances to the finals with a nil-nil draw — so Tuchel will likely play very conservatively. The Blues’ last six matches in the Champions League have finished Under the Total. Real Madrid has played three straight matches and five of their last six across all competitors Under 2.5 goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match between these two teams. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224214) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224213) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of the Semifinals with a 2-1 victory. PSG must win this match by at least two goals, or secure a victory in extra time after securing a 2-1 score after regulation time.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Citizens host this second leg at their Etihad Stadium where they have not allowed more than one goal in 20 of their last 23 matches across all competitions with 14 clean sheets during that span. Man City has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on Saturday in a match where manager Pep Guardiola was able to rest key players to ensure his starting XI are ready for this showdown. The Citizens are cruising to their third English Premier League title in the last four seasons with a comfortable 13 point lead on Manchester United. Man City has won six in a row the Champions League while scoring twice in each of those matches. They have only allowed four goals in their 11 Champions League matches. Man City was outplayed in the first half against PSG last week with the Parisians expended tons of energy on an aggressive counter-attack. But the problem for manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side was unable to sustain that effort in the second half where the Citizens dictated the tempo and scored their two goals. That is the difference between playing in Ligue 1 and playing in the English Premier League every week. Not only is the EPL a more competitive league from week to week, but it is the most physical professional league in Europe. Man City has better endurance — and better depth. Guardiola made a good substitution by replacing Joao Cancelo on his backline who got burned three times in the first half with Oleksander Zinchenko who had two successful tackles in the final 45 minutes in helping to stabilize the defense. Guardiola will likely stick with Zinchenko this afternoon. Mauricio Pochettino is behind the eight-ball for this second leg. He can no longer have his side play the cat-and-mouse counter-attack that was successful in the first half last week. But even worse, PSG’s best player, Kylian Mbappe, will not start after suffering a calf injury that kept him out of the Parisian’s 2-1 win over Lens in the French top-flight on Saturday. Mbappe averages a whopping 0.80 expected goals per 90 minutes — his absence is devastating. Even if he does take the pitch as a sub, his speed and effectiveness will likely be diminished. PSG still has Neymar — but the Brazilian is a perpetual underachiever when asked to be the talisman. Neymar needs Mbappe to open up his game. Without him, Neymar will flop his way to a number of disputes with the refs, but he rarely carries his professional or Brazilian National Team to success. To compound matters, PSG will also be without holding midfielder Idrissa Gana Gueye who is suspended for this match after being issued a red card in last week’s match. Gueye led his team last week with four tackles and nine successful pressures despite only playing 71 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Paris Saint-Germain is a threat against the best competition in the world when playing at full strength. The loss of Gueye is a significant blow, but the injury to Mbappe is devastating. And they have to play on their front foot. The Man City “false-nine” where they play without a true attacker but with a slew of attacking midfielders is very effective in the counterattack — and they will likely score a few times from this formation. A draw is all Man City needs to advance — but I see the straight-up victory on their home pitch. 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (224214) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224401) in the first leg in the Semifinals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United advanced to the Semifinals of the Europa League with their 4-0 aggregate score victory against Granada in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Roma reached the Semifinals with their 3-2 aggregate score win against Ajax.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United is in second place in the English Premier League which might overvalue their quality — they are not as good as Chelsea, and they are not as good as Liverpool despite the reigning EPL champions experiencing a down year hit-hard by injuries. And they may not be as good as the Leicester City team that handed them their only loss since February in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. But the Red Devils are much better with a healthy (and engaged) Paul Pogba joining Bruno Fernandes in their midfield. Man United has won 12 of their last 17 matches across all competitions after they settled for a 0-0 draw at Leeds United on Sunday. The Red Devils struggled at home at Old Trafford in the fall as they may have lacked energy on their pitch without fans. But they have won their last four matches at home across all competitions with eight goals and just two conceded. They have also won five of their last six matches at home in the EPL, which is probably the most competitive professional league in Europe (and the world). Roma is just not very good. They are winless in their last four matches across all competitions with two losses after losing to a Cagliari side on Sunday that is 17th in Serie A. Defeating Ajax in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League was a nice accomplishment — but they lost the expected goals (xG) battle in both contests to the Dutch side. In fact, they were dominated — they managed only 1.62 xG combined with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 4.43 xGA. The Yellow and Reds are only in seventh place in Serie A — a distant five points behind the sixth-place Lazio. They have allowed at least three goals in their last two league matches — and they have conceded 2.5 xGA or higher in four of their last seven league matches despite not facing a tough schedule. Roma has not been a great road team either with two straight losses away from home as well as five losses in their last eight matches (with only one victory) in the Italian top flight.

FINAL TAKE: Man United may be overrated a tad — but they are still one of the better teams in the English Premier League. Roma is not as good, relatively, in Serie A which is vastly inferior to the EPL. Let’s not overthink this. Man United handed Granada two 2-0 losses in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League. That seems the likely result in this one with a one-goal victory (and push) the most probable worst-case scenario. 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Month with Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224201) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the first leg in the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Man City advanced to the Semifinals with their 4-2 aggregate score victory against Borussia Dortmund in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. PSG reached the Semifinals due to the road goals tiebreaker that resolved the 3-3 aggregate score deadlock with Bayern Munich in the Quarterfinals. PSG hosts the first leg at their Parc des Princes.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Winning the Champions League is the crown jewel for manager Pep Guardiola and this Man City team. They are cruising to their third English Premier League championship in the last four seasons with their 10-point lead in the EPL table over Manchester United. Not only have the Citizens never reached the Semifinals of the Champions League under Guardiola, but this proud franchise has never won a Champions League title. Man City lifted their first trophy this season on Sunday by winning the Carabou Cup in a 1-0 win against Tottenham. The tactics of that match were important as Guardiola’s side had to combat the Hotspurs playing a cagey, defensive-oriented match that relied on occasional moments of a counter-attack. These are the tactics that former Tottenham skipper, Mauricio Pochettino has deployed with PSG in this tournament. Guardiola gets John Stones back for this match after he received a red card three-match suspension. His return bolsters the Citizens backline since he has formed a great partnership with center-back Ruben Dias. Man City’s defense has been at its best with Dias and Stone paired on the pitch. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their four knockout stage matches in the Champions League — and they have generated clean sheets in 52% of their matches in the EPL. Man City has scored at least two goals in eight of their ten Champions League matches this season. Phil Foden is a rising superstar that has eclipsed the perpetually underachieving Gabriel Jesus and the aging Sergio Aguero as the team’s most accomplished finisher. PSG will likely continue to deploy a 4-4-1-1 formation that was successful in absorbing the Bayern Munich attack in the Quarterfinals. Kylian Mbappe is critical for the success of this team as the player up to in this formation — but the brilliant 22-year-old is a doubt for this match with a knee injury he suffered on Saturday in the Parisians 3-1 win against Metz. Mbappe scored twice in that match before exiting because of the injury. I expect Mbappe to play — it will be a coup for us if he is unable to take the pitch. But, Mbappe may not be at 100% — and he needs to be. PSG’s triumph over the Bavarians was marred by Bayern Munich being without their best attacker, Robert Lewandowski, to injury. I am not nearly as impressed with their Round of 16 victory against a Barcelona side that beats up on lesser opponents before fading against their best competition. The Parisians are not even winning Ligue 1 this season, as they are one point behind Lille for first place in the French top flight. PSG does not play elite defense either — they have surrendered five goals in their four knockout stage matches in this competition.

FINAL TAKE: This is the critical match for Man City since their road goals output will serve as their entry into the potential tiebreaker. I liked the Citizens in this matchup even before the Mbappe knock — expect a road win for Guardiola. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Manchester City (224201) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League with their 2-1 aggregate victory over FC Porto in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Real Madrid advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-1 aggregate win against Liverpool in the Quarterfinals. Los Blancos host this first leg at their Alfredo di Stefano Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea last played on Saturday in a 1-0 victory against West Ham United. That was the Blues’ third straight clean sheet — including a big 1-0 shutout victory against Manchester City in the Semifinals of the FA Cup. Chelsea immediately became a defensive juggernaut after Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January. In his 21 matches as the skipper, the Blues have shutout 16 of their opponents across all competitions. Besides Tuchel being a much better manager of players in making his expectations and confidence clear, he also changed tactics to a 3-4-2-1 formation. This shape gave the team extra defenders to tighten up their back end — but it also allows for Chelsea to gain an extra attacker when they go on the counter-attack. The Blues play cautiously while controlling possession. They are allowing only 0.58 expected goals allowed (xGA) since Tuchel took over. They have generated seven clean sheets in their last ten matches in the Champions League. But this conservative approach has taken some of the bite out of the Chelsea attack. They have scored only two goals in their last four matches. Real Madrid has registered four clean sheets in a row themselves after a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis in La Liga action on Saturday. Los Blancos have nine clean sheets in their last 16 matches across all competitions -- and this includes against quality competition in Atalanta, Liverpool, and Atletico Madrid in five of those clean sheets. They have only allowed two combined goals in their four matches in the knockout stage of the Champions League. But the Real Madrid attack has not been very sharp as of late as they have only scored in one of their last four matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane is dealing with several injuries that will likely compel him to engage in more conservative tactics as well. Center back Sergio Ramos has missed most of the season, and now left-back Ferland Mendy along with defensive midfielders Lucas Vazquez and Fede Valverde dealing with knocks. Zidane had midfielder Casemiro play back as almost a third center back in their second leg match against Liverpool in that 0-0 draw. He may deploy this tactic again — keeping this first leg a lower-scoring match helps Los Blancos control the potential road goals tiebreaker.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has played 18 of their 21 matches in the Tuchel regime Under 2.5 goals. While Real Madrid has played 12 of their 23 matches Under 2.5 goals in 2021, they have seen only three combined goals in their last four matches. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200021) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200022). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W7-D13-L12) earned their second-straight draw with their 0-0 result at Chelsea on Tuesday. Sheffield United (W4-D2-L26) lost their sixth straight match in a 1-0 loss at Wolverhampton last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Seagulls are one of the best defensive teams in the English Premier League. They limited Chelsea to just 0.85 expected goals (xG) while holding them scoreless. That was Brighton’s third clean sheet in their last four matches. Manager Graham Potter’s side has the third-lowest expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL which is a testament to his tactical acumen. Potter is on the shortlist to be the next manager at Tottenham — and that would be a great choice. The Seagulls have been expected goals darlings all season — they rank fifth in the EPL since January 1st in expected goals differential. This club is only in 16th place and fighting off relegation because they lack finishers on offense. Brighton generates plenty of chances — while they have only scored 33 goals, their xG skyrockets to 46.61 for the season. Facing Sheffield United may be just what the doctor ordered. This team was able to finish in the top half of the table last season given organized play on defense and fantastic goaltending from Dean Henderson. They lost Henderson in the offseason to Manchester United as he fights to not only win that starting job but also claiming the starting keeper position for the England national team. Aaron Ramsdale has not been of the same quality for the Blades this season. This team is now officially relegated, and their outstanding manager, Chris Wilder, was sacked last month. There was no bounce from this group after Wilder was dismissed — they have lost nine of ten matches. This team simply cannot score — they are last in the league in goals scored, third-to-last in xG, and they have scored just twice in their last ten matches. A key to their success last year was their ability to take leads which allowed Wilder to safely park thorn proverbial bus in the back. Instead, the defense has been too leaky and they are the ones to fall behind. The Blades have allowed the third-most goals this season. Since January 1st, Sheffield United its second-to-last in both xG and xGA. In their six straight losses, four of these setbacks have been by multiple goals. Injuries are mounting up, and the Championship League is on the horizon for next season as the club considers who their next manager will be. Paul Heckingbottom has been the caretaker over the last month, but the players know he may be a lame duck who will not be retained. This is the formula for teams playing with the summer “beach” on their minds.

FINAL TAKE: Brighton would love to take the three points in this match to all but guarantee that they would avoid relegation. They have tough matches with Man City and West Ham on deck. The Seagulls should dominate the pitch and see scoring chances pull-through for an easy win. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200021) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200022). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). THE SITUATION: Everton (W14-D7-L10) settled for a draw for their third match in a row with their 2-2 result with Tottenham last Friday. Arsenal (W13-D7-L12) also settled for a draw in their last match in a 1-1 score with Fulham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Toffees are playing in a defensive posture with manager Carlo Ancelotti adapting to injuries that have riddled the cohesion of his midfield for most of the season. Everton has more than one goal just once in 11 straight matches across all competitions — and they have blanked in three of those matches. The Toffees have also produced clean sheets in three of their last 11 matches. They go back on the road where they have played four straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. Everton has failed to score in their last two road games in league play — but they have also produced three clean sheets in their last four EPL matches away from home. Arsenal will be without their top two scorers in Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who have combined to score 22 of the team’s 44 goals. Lacazette is dealing with an injury, while Aubemeyang is recovering from the Malaria he caught on the international break playing for his national team in Gabon. Manager Mikel Arteta will be relying on younger forwards for this match. The Gunners have only scored twice in their last four matches at home. But Arsenal has only allowed two combined goals in their last four matches across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Everton has seen eight of their last 11 matches see no more than two combined goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match this afternoon. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.