At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W15-D10-L3) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw against Hertha Berlin on Wednesday. FC Koln (W10-D4-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at Hoffenheim last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: RB Leipzig is unbeaten in their last nine matches — but they have only secured three victories over that span. They have scored eight times in their three matches since the return to action in May — and they have the highest expected goal (xG) mark in the league over that span. They have also scored 22 goals over their last eleven matches. The Red Bulls are 3rd in the league with 70 goals scored — and their expected goals mark is 2nd best in the Bundesliga. They also have the most expected goals when playing on the road. RB Leipzig is also an excellent defensive team but they will be without starting left full-back Marcel Halstenberg who is suspended for this match. Koln has allowed seven goals in their three matches since the return of play. The Billy Goats have been inconsistent in these games perhaps not fully motivated since they are mired in the middle of the standings — safe from relegation but unlikely to be able to move up to the 6th spot to qualify for the Europa League next year. Koln blew a two-goal lead in their opening match against Mainz before rallying from a two-goal deficit as a home favorite to eke out a 2-2 draw with lowly Fortuna Dusseldorf. Then on Wednesday, the Billy Goats fell behind by a 3-0 score before getting their offense going — and they ended that match with an xG of 2.24. And despite scoring only four goals in their three matches in May, they ranked 2nd in the Bundesliga with 7.4 expected goals (2.56 xG/match) which is second only to RB Leipzig in that metric.

FINAL TAKE: FC Koln will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at RB Leipzig back on November 23rd. Their attacker, Cordoba, has scored nine of his 11 goals at home this season while RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner has scored 14 of his 24 goals on the road. Expect a wild, higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Monday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund (W21-D4-L4) enters this match looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Tuesday. Paderborn (W4-D7-L14) is winless in their last nine matches after pulling out a nil-nil draw at Augsburg on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Borussia Dortmund was stymied by the Bayern Munich defense as they registered a low 0.57 expected goal (xG) mark in their loss on Tuesday which dropped them to 7 points out of first place. Look for the BVB to be flat in this match. This team’s scoring prowess has declined significantly as of late even before playing the Bavarians. While Borussia Dortmund ranks 2nd to them with 74 goals scored, their expected goals on the season based on the deeper analytics plummets to just 52.68 which not only ranks just 5th in the league but also represents the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected goals. So this team was due a visit from the Regression Gods — and it appears these deities have made their presence known since the return to play this month. The Black-Yellows have scored only six combined goals over their three May matches — and yet their expected goals in these games translate into just 2.78 xGF over those contests for a microscopic 0.93 xGF per match. Regression only explains part of that massive drop off. Jordan Sancho plays a critical part in the offensive attack — but the 20-year old did not respond to self-quarantine in the same way many older professionals have. Sancho returned this month lacking so much fitness that manager Lucien Favre has chosen not to start him. Sancho did substitute in the second half against Bayern Munich on Tuesday but he is a step or two slow which neutralizes the dynamic skillset he displayed earlier in the season. To compound matters for this team’s offensive attack, not only have then been without captain Marcos Reus on their forward line but they will now be without 19-year old forward phenom Erling Haaland who is now out with a knee injury. Borussia Dortmund has seen a steady improvement in their defensive play in the second half of the season. BVB has clean sheets in two of their last three matches along with five of their last seven. They have limited their last eight opponents to just 0.87 expected goals. They go on the road where they rank tied for 9th with 23 goals allowed — but their xGA away from home improves to the 3rd best ranking in the Bundesliga. Paderborn may be in last place in the German top flight but they have pulled out three draws in their three matches since the return of play while generating two clean sheets and allowing only one goal. But they have only scored one time over that span of three matches. Manager Steffen Baumgart had his team playing a direct style which would go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the league — but quarantine must have had him hit the tape because his group has played very cautiously since returning to the pitch. In their three matches this month, Paderborn had held their opponents to just 1.12 expected goals per match which are far below their 1.86 xGA for the season. But they are averaging only 1.00 expected goals this month — and they have a low 0.82 xG mark over their last five matches.

FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will struggle to score in this match — not only do they rank 16th in the league in expected goals at home (versus being tied for 12th in actual goals at home) and they host a Dortmund side that are tied in 9th in goals allowed on the road but who rank 3rd in xGA in goals against away from home. 25* Bundesliga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W9-D8-L11) enters this match coming off an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig on Wednesday. Augsburg (W8-D7-L13) comes off a nil-nil draw at home to Paderborn on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Hertha Berlin showed no fear in traveling to Red Bull Arena to face an RB Leipzig side that the Expected Goals (xG) analytics ranks as the second-best team in the Bundesliga. The metrics for that match on Wednesday projected that Die Alte Dame should have defeated RB Leipzig by a 1.74 to 0.58 margin based on the empirical data from the quality and quantity of shots for both teams in that match. This Hertha Berlin team is much better than their record indicates at this point of the season. Die Alte Dame began the year with high expectations with a talented roster along with a high profile new manager in former USNMT skipper Jurgen Klinsmann. But Klinsmann was sacked in February over conflicts with ownership regarding the direction of this franchise. Hertha Berlin was very aggressive in the January transfer window as they brought in two talented strikers in Krzysztof Piatek and Matheus Cunha. While Piatek was the more glamorous and expensive signing coming over from AC Milan, Cunha has so far made the bigger impact on the pitch with four goals in his seven matches for his new team. Die Alte Dame also replaced interim manager Alexander Nouri who took over for Klinsmann with Bruno Labbadia in April during the stoppage of play. Labbadia has led his team to two wins and that draw at RB Leipzig earlier this week while scoring 9 goals while producing two clean sheets. Hertha Berlin is now unbeaten in their last five matches while scoring at least five goals in all those contests with the new talent at forward jumpstarting their offense. This team begins the day in 10th place in the German top-flight table while being 7 points out of 6th place which is necessary to qualify for next year’s Europa League. Yet this team is playing with as much momentum as any team in the league under their new manager as they continue to gain cohesion and build for next year. Augsburg may be lacking motivation with them being ranked 12th in the table — 4 points above relegation but even farther away from the 6th place Europa slot. Fuggerstadter has generated only 11 points over their last thirteen matches — and they have won only twice in their last ten games. Augsburg only picked up 1 point on Wednesday against a Paderborn side that is in the basement in the Bundesliga — and the xG projected a loss by a 1.25-0.84 margin in that contest so they were probably fortunate with the draw. They did snap a five-game losing streak on the road last weekend when they defeated Schalke — but that opponent is mired in a terrible ten-match winless streak as they spiral in the wrong direction. A good case can be made that Fuggerstadter has benefited from playing the two worst teams in the league right now over their last two contests. Finding offense has been the biggest problem as they have scored only seven combined goals over their last eight matches — and they were held scoreless in four of those contests. Forward Florian Niederlechner is the team’s leading scorer but he has been blanked in eight straight matches. They go back on the road where they have only scored three times in their last five matches.

FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin will have the extra motivation in this contest to avenge a 4-0 loss at Augsburg back on November 24th. Fuggerstadter was playing much better in the fall — and it is now Die Alte Dame that is playing with much better form. 25* Bundesliga Match of the Month with the Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W16-D5-L7) saw their five-match winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-1 upset loss at home to Wolfsburg. Freiburg (W10-D8-L10) comes off a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Werkself may have been ripe for an emotional letdown after they defeated Borussia Monchengladbach on the road by a 3-1 score to seize 4th place in the standings. But the loss on Tuesday dropped them back into 5th place which is one position outside on qualifying for next season’s Championship League. Bayer Leverkusen had been playing great — they had won nine of their last eleven matches while being unbeaten in twelve straight matches before suffering the upset earlier this week. But with still plenty to play for, manager Peter Bosz’s squad should respond with a strong effort. Bosz had his team playing more cautiously in the first half of the season with superstar midfielder, Kai Havertz, playing more of a defensive role. Die Werkself lost Julian Brandt in the offseason and missed his talent on the pitch along with his seven goals from last season. But Bosz pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in midseason which has resulted in this team going on a scoring spree. Not only have they scored in seventeen straight matches but they have also scored a combined 18 goals in their last six contests even after scoring just once on Tuesday. Havertz had scored four goals in the first two matches in the return of play this month before going scoreless against Wolfsburg. But with striker Kevin Holland not yet fit after returning to training after dealing with an injury, Havertz will continue to play the striker role that he thrived in as of late. Bayer Leverkusen has won nine of their fifteen matches on the road in league play — their 28 points away from home is tied for the second-most in the German top flight. Freiburg is the most overachieving side in the Bundesliga — while they are 8th on the table with 38 points, their expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed numbers drop to the 5th lowest in the league. Freiburg has only won one match in their last seven matches and just three times in 2020 — and they have won only four of their last sixteen contests. They were very fortunate to escape with the one point for their draw on Tuesday since the expected goal metric projected that they should have allowed 4.38 goals to Frankfurt while scoring just 0.82 goals — so they were graded with the most fortunate result last week. They had a 3-1 lead in the match ending the final 11 minutes of regulation before surrounding two goals in the next three minutes in settling for the draw. By the end of the match, they had allowed a whopping 21 shots with 13 of them being on target. It is luck on their end of the pitch which has been the biggest reason why they are over-performing their deeper metrics. While Freiburg ranks 7th in the league in goals allowed, their expected goals allowed (xGA) plummets to the third-worst mark in the league. And while they are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals when playing at home, their ranking drops to 10th place in xGA when playing at the Black Forest at Schwarzwald-Stadion.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw on November 23rd — but Freiburg remains winless in their last five matches against Beyer Leverkusen. Only earning 1 point in that contest should ensure they do not take Freiburg lightly in this reverse fixture. Coming off the upset loss, look for Die Werkself to respond with a strong effort. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Month with the Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). THE SITUATION: Paderborn (W4-D6-L17) eked out their second straight draw since the return of play in the German top flight with their 1-1 draw at home against Hoffenheim last Saturday. Augsburg (W8-D6-L13) snapped a six-match winless streak on Sunday when they defeated Schalke on the road by a 3-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paderborn has received a burst of energy from forward Dennis Srbeny who has scored four of his team's last five goals with his strike on Saturday. This team has scored in nine of their last eleven matches with an exciting direct style-of-play under manager Steffen Baumgart who has his team go toe-to-toe with the top-level sides in the league. Paderborn is not going to park the bus in the back — especially when they are in last place in the Bundesliga and desperate for the three points that come with a victory. Paderborn has also conceded a goal in the first 15 minutes of the match in fourteen of their twenty-seven league matches this season — so they are frequently playing from behind. They have surrendered 55 goals this season which is the third most in the German top flight. Furthermore, Paderborn has only had four clean sheets in four of their last twenty-five matches — and they have pulled this feat off just once in their last eight contests. Augsburg has seen at least three combined goals scored in their first two matches since the return of play. They return home where they are 7th in the Bundesliga with 25 goals scored. They have scored at least one goal in twelve of their last thirteen matches in their WMK Arena — and eleven of their last twelve home matches have gone Over 2.5 combined goals scored. Florian Niederlechner may be due to score in this match as he has not found the back of the net in seven straight matches despite being the team’s leading scorer. Augsburg has also allowed the fourth-most goals in the Bundesliga at a 2.0 goals allowed per game rate.

FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will be looking to avenge a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg back on November 9th. The Fuggerstadter also employ an open style of play — so Paderborn should get plenty of scoring chances in this match. Augsburg is tied for 12th place in the table which puts them 6 points above the relegation zone. So while the Fuggerstadter are probably safe, they will still be looking to increase their home winning streak against Paderborn to fourteen straight matches. 25* Bundesliga Midweek Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W19-D4-L4) has won six straight matches while being unbeaten in thirteen straight games in the Bundesliga after their 5-2 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. Borussia Dortmund (W17-D6-L4) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolfsburg on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to earn the two-goal victory as they only managed four shots in the match — and their expected goals based on the deeper metrics was just 0.91. The Black-and-Yellows have scored 74 goals this season — but the analytics are screaming for regression with this team given that their expected goals this year plummet to just 52.06 goals. While BVB is second in the German top-flight table with 57 points, their points based on expected goals fall to 50.48. Borussia Dortmund has the best record at home in the Bundesliga with a W10-D3-L0 mark for 33 points — but the xG metric projects those points to only accrue 27.39. Their 45 goals when playing at home drops significantly with the expected goals metric to just 31.06 xG. The Black-and-Yellows would certainly prefer that fans would be in the crowd for this Der Klassiker to help reproduce their famed “yellow wall.” This team is also dealing with injuries with forward (and captain) Marcos Reus out for this match with a knock while 20-year old phenom Jadon Sancho remains questionable with his injury. Borussia Dortmund is loaded with young talent — but experience in big matches like this is an issue. This team does not have the level of depth as Bayern Munich — and it is questionable how many of their starting XI would warrant the starting lineup if these two rosters were hypothetically merged. Bayern Munich may very well be the best team in Europe. They have won fourteen of their seventeen matches since they fired manager Niko Kovac to replace him with Hansi Flick. The Bavarians have won seven straight Bundesliga titles — and Flick reinvigorated this team by instituting a high press with a 4-1-4-1 formation. Bayern Munich’s defense has significantly improved under Flick as this team has done much better in coaxing suboptimal shots. Der Rekordmeister had registered five straight clean sheets before they surrendered two goals in a three-minute span on Saturday against Frankfurt. Led by forwards Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller along with 19-year old Canadian sensation Alphonso Davies at left wing, the Bavarians lead the German top-flight with 80 goals — and their 37 goals away from home are the most goals on the road in the league. Bayern Munich has won nine of their thirteen matches on the road in league play this season.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is in first-place by 4 points over Borussia Dortmund who is the next closest team to them in the standings — and even the expected goals metrics suggest they are slightly underachieving. The Bavarians are no fluke — and a victory in this match likely cements their eight-straight league championship. They will likely be without midfielder Thiago who is injured for this match — but this team has plenty of depth to replace him on the pitch. Bayern Munich blasted Borussia Dortmund by a 4-0 score in the reverse fixture back on November 9th — and they have won the last two spring showdowns with their primary Bundesliga rivals by a combined 11-0 score. Expect Bayern Munich to once again outclass this BVB side that has been very fortunate with their scoring success this season — especially with no home crowd to apply pressure to the road favorites in this match. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS1-TV Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). THE SITUATION: FC Koln (W10-D3-L13) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 2-2 draw at home to FSV Mainz. Fortuna Dusseldorf (W5-D8-L13) also comes off a draw in their nil-nil results at home versus SC Paderborn last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE FC KOLN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: FC Koln was frustrated last week after blowing a 2-0 lead in that game. But this is still a side moving in the right direction having won eight of their last twelve matches outright. The Billy Goats opened the season losing ten of their first fourteen league matches but now find themselves in the middle at the table in 10th place and likely safe from relegation. This team has improved in the second half of the season with the acquisition of forward Mark Uth on loan from Schalke who has since scored five times while adding four assists in his eight matches with the team. FC Koln is projected as the 8th best team in the league when looking at the expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed this year. The Billy Goats had been playing better defense before the stoppage of play as they have allowed only three combined goals in their last four matches before surrendering two goals last week in the final 30 minutes of that contest. FC Koln has played much better at home lately as well with only one loss in their last five league contests to the first-place Bayern Munich. They have also generated 10 points in their last five home matches with three outright victories. Fortuna Dusseldorf may be demoralized after last week as they hit three posts in their scoreless draw with Paderborn. That was a crucial opportunity for Die Flingeraner to get themselves out of the relegation zone against the last-place team. Now they still find themselves 4 points out of 15th place. While Fortuna Dusseldorf has allowed 50 goals this season which is the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga, they are the bottom team in the league in expected goals allowed. They are also the second-worst team in the Bundesliga in expected points when playing on the road. To compound matters, this team will be without a key piece to their defense with Kaan Ayaan suspended for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card last week.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation is a concern for FC Koln with them seemingly safe from relegation but still 6 points out of 6th place which is the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. But the Billy Goats have the opportunity to avenge a 2-0 loss to Fortuna Dusseldorf back on November 3rd which was a match played amidst their dreary start to the season. Getting the bad taste out of their mouth from blowing a two-goal lead is the other motivating factor for this contest. The analytics indicate there is a significant difference between these two sides. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS1-TV Match of the Year with the FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W15-D5-L6) has won eight of their last ten matches across all competitions while going unbeaten in their last six games after their 4-1 win at Werder Bremen on Monday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W16-D4-L6) has lost just once in their last eight matches after they dispatched of Eintracht Frankfurt on the road by a 3-1 score last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be an entertaining — and high-scoring — contest between two teams fighting for one of the four slots to qualify for the Champions League next season. Both of these engage in aggressive tactics on the pitch. Bayer Leverkusen is currently in 5th place in the German top-flight table just 2 points behind Borussia Monchengladbach who is in 3rd place. Die Werkself is led by a 20-year old sensation Kai Havertz who is a matchup nightmare in the middle of the pitch given his agility along with his 6’2 size. He is destined to be the next great number #10 position player for the German national team for at least the next two World Cup cycles. Manager Peter Bosz did have Havertz playing more of a defensive position in the first half of the season given the loss in the offseason of Julian Brandt who contributed seven goals last season. But Bosz has pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in the second half of the season — and Bayer Leverkusen has responded by scoring 14 goals over their last four matches. Their defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed goals in five of their last six matches along with ten of their last twelve contests. They only have three clean sheets on the road in league play this season — and they rank just 10th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. Borussia Monchengladbach has scored nine goals in their last four matches which have helped them rank 4th in the league in goals scored — and they rise to 3rd in the Bundesliga in expected goals (xG) scored. Their match with Eintracht Frankfurt was a wild one as they attempted 17 shots while allowing their opponents to launch 14 shots. Their ability to suppress scoring opportunities is hampered right now with their start holding midfielder in Denis Zakaria out for at least another month after he had knee surgery during the recent stoppage of play. Borussia Monchengladbach is just 7th in the league in goals allowed when playing at home — but they fall to 9th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed when playing on their home pitch. But on the other hand, this team has scored in a dozen straight league matches at home (after blanking in their opening home match this season) — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals scored at home.

FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen is looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at home o Borussia Monchengladbach back on November 2nd. Both teams should get on the board in this match with a high likelihood that at least four combined goals will be scored in this contest. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). THE SITUATION: Union Berlin (W9-D3-L14) returned to action in the German top flight with a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday. Hertha Berlin (W8-D7-L11) defeated Hoffenheim on the road last Saturday by a 3-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Union Berlin did a good job of keeping mighty Bayern Munich in check as the first-place team in Bundesliga had a goal expectation of just 1.35 (xG) from their tactics on the pitch — and one of their goals was scored from a penalty kick. But Union Berlin embraced defensive tactics for most of this match with their top scorer unavailable for that match. Forward Sebastian Andersson had been injured before the stoppage in play for COVID-19 — and while he was available on the bench for this match, manager Urs Fischer decided he was not yet fit for action. Andersson has scored 11 times this season which accounts for 43% of the scoring for Die Eisernen this season — but he should be back on the pitch for this local Berlin derby. This is the maiden season in the Bundesliga for Union Berlin — and Fischer’s team has generated fourteen goals via set pieces this year. This team overachieved on defense last week as they have allowed the sixth-most goals on the road in the league this season — and they also rank 6th for the highest xGA when playing away from home. Union Berlin has conceded at least one goal in five straight matches — and they have allowed ten combined goals in their last four contests. To compound matters, Die Eisernen will be undermanned on their backline with defenseman Kevin Schlotterbeck suspended for this match after picking up his fifth yellow card this season on Sunday. Hertha Berlin has seen an uptick in their offensive attack in the second half of the season after making two important moves in the winter transfer window. Die Alt Dame signed Krzysztof Piatek from AC Milan and Matheus Cunha from RB Leipzig to completely transform their forward line. Hertha Berlin has scored eight combined goals in their last three matches while finding the back of the bet at least twice in those three contests. Cunha has scored three goals while adding an assist in his five matches with his new club. And while Piatek did not play on Saturday, he was replaced by team captain Vedad Ibisevic with the 35-year old veteran scoring one of the team’s two goals Cunha. Die Alte Dame plays an entertaining open style of play which has seen plenty of goals from both sides as of late. Over their last six matches, 25 combined goals have been scored. Hertha Berlin has allowed the fourth-most goals when playing at home at the Olympiastadion — and the expected goals they have allowed at home (xGA) is also the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga. They do come off a clean sheet win on the road last week — but the xGA for that match was over 3.0 so they were very fortunate to see that result. Expect an appearance from the Regression Gods on Friday when it comes to the defensive results for this team.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have scored in four of their last five meetings in this rivalry. Hertha Berlin’s 31 points put them one point ahead of Union Berlin for 11th place in the German top-flight table. With both teams probably safe from relegation but too far removed from the sixth place necessary to qualify for the next Europa League, the only thing at stake in this match is bragging rights. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus SC Freiburg (202405). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W14-D8-L3) returns to the pitch after a two-month absence from action given the stoppage of play in the Bundesliga from the Coronavirus. They last played on March 10th when they dominated Tottenham by a 3-0 score in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 to advance to the Quarterfinals of the European Championship by an aggregate 4-0 score. Freiburg (W10-D6-L9) last played on Match 7th when they defeated Union Berlin by a 3-1 score.

REASONS TO LAY THE GOAL-LINE WITH RB LEIPZIG: Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team should be very motivated to play out the string of their Bundesliga matches. They currently sit in 3rd place in Germany’s top-flight league five points behind Bayern Munich in 1st place and just one point behind 2nd place Borussia Dortmund. This team also features several players who are in line for big paydays on the summer transfer market — so taking advantage of these matches which will have the attention of the world with the Bundesliga being the first major European soccer league returning to action could be very lucrative. Forward Timo Werner is being rumored to have the interest of Liverpool while midfielder Marcel Sabitzer has been possibly linked to both Liverpool and Arsenal. Werner has 21 goals this season with another 8 assists. RB Leipzig also has a dynamic attacking midfielder Christopher Nkunku leads the Bundesliga with 65 scoring chances — and his 4.05 scoring chances per 90 minutes average this season is the second-best of all players in the top-five European professional leagues. But the strength of manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is on defense. RB Leipzig is tied for tops in the Bundesliga in fewest goals allowed. This team has allowed only one goal in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have registered six clean sheets in their last seven matches overall. Consistent play on the defensive side of the pitch is the characteristic that I suspect will carry over after the long layoff. Freiburg has just three victories in 2020 despite defeating Union Berlin in their last match. They are led by Nils Petersen — but their top-scorer has not found the back of the net in his last eight league matches. Freiburg can struggle to create scoring chances so I expect them to struggle against this RB Leipzig side that is so good at shot suppression. They had scored only three goals in their previous five matches before their three-goal effort against Union Berlin. Freiburg has scored only 18 goals in their thirteen league matches on the road. And while they have conceded 21 goals in their thirteen matches away from home in Bundesliga, the deeper metrics indicate that they expected goals they should have allowed jumps to 28.32. RB Leipzig is in 8th place in the league with 36 points — but the analytics projects regression with their net xG of only 28.79 points entering this match.

FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig hosts this match at their Red Bull Arena where they are W7-D4-L1 in league play this season. While there will not be fans for this contest given social distancing guidelines, I am still assigning advantages to the home team given the familiarity of their arena along with not having to travel for this match. RB Leipzig will also have revenge on their mind after losing at Freiburg by a 2-1 score back on October 26th. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Manchester City last Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D6-L17) comes off a 3-0 loss at Wolverhampton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is a get-right game for the Foxes. Leicester has not scored in their last two matches and their best attacker, Jamie Vardy, has not scored in seven straight matches. The team really missed Wilfried Ndidi in the midfield who has been the glue of this team. But the Foxes have also endured a challenging schedule as of late in the English Premier League with their previous matches being against a solid Wolverhampton side that is playing their best soccer of the season along with Chelsea. Leicester City has thrived against the non-Power Six sides in the EPL this season: they are W13-D3-L2 in those contests while scoring 45 goals and conceding just 12 times in those eighteen matches. The Foxes have also been capable when playing on the road where they are W7-D2-L4 in thirteen matches while scoring 28 times and conceding just 12 goals. Vardy is unquestionably out of form but he has been a reliable striker for many years who should eventually get it going again — and he is getting chances. Manager Brendan Rodgers has plenty of capable goal scorers in his starting XI including Harvey Barnes who has scored three goals in the last five weeks along with Ayoze Perez who recently registered a brace and Touri Tielemans who has two assists in 2020. And those names fail to mention the Foxes’ second best offensive player in James Maddison who is also enduring a slump. Norwich City may be just what the doctor ordered for Leicester City. Wolverhampton battered them last week with 19 shot attempts with 13 of them in the box and five big chances that correlated with an Expected-Goals scored metric above the three goals that they scored against the porous Canaries defense. The 51 goals that Norwich has allowed this season is the second most in the EPL — and the 26 goals they have allowed at home is also the second most in the league. The Canaries have lost three of their last four matches in EPL action while failing to score in three straight games. Over their last fourteen EPL matches, they are just 1-5-8 which is why they are in the basement of the standings. Since relegation is likely for this team, they should play this match aggressively since they are desperate for victories with the 3 points they accrue.

FINAL TAKE: There is little chance of Leicester City taking this team lightly since they settled for a disappointing 1-1 draw with them back on December 14th at home in their first meeting. The Foxes are the better team — and they need the victory to jumpstart their season where they hope to qualify in the top four for the Champions League for next season. Leicester City prefers opponents like the Canaries who play with a more open style of play — and, remember, that they had scored 54 goals over a twenty-four match span (while being blanked just once) before their recent two-game slide. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D6-L14) returns to the pitch after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City back on February 19th. Liverpool (W25-D1-L0) comes off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on February 15th in their last English Premier League match.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is playing outstanding defense after a shaky start to the season. The Reds have produced ten clean sheets in their last eleven games while allowing a mere one goal over that span in English Premier League action. The insertion of Joe Gomez into their defensive backline has certainly helped. Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has also gotten his group to play a bit more conservatively with an emphasis on defensive tactics after starting the season where they were an offensive juggernaut. The Reds’ offensive attack has been moderated as of late as they have not scored more than two goals in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has also scored two goals or less in seven of their last ten matches at home. The team lost an important piece to their midfield last Tuesday in their loss to Atletico Madrid in Champions League play with Jordan Henderson suffering a hamstring injury. Look for the Reds to play a bit more cautiously this afternoon to compensate for his absence on the pitch. West Ham parked the proverbial bus last Saturday in their 2-0 loss to Manchester City. Manager David Moyes will likely deploy the same strategy in this contest with the Hammers trying to fight off relegation. Goal differential could play a role in staving off a return to England’s Champions League so West Ham will not begin to play more aggressively if they fall behind by a goal or two. Moyes will be relatively happy with a 2-0 loss so that the Hammers do not get dinged too badly with the goal differential tie-breaker. West Ham had only three shots against Man City with none of them on target. They have scored only five goals in their last six contests with three of them coming in a 3-3 draw against Brighton. West Ham has scored only 10 goals on the road this season in the EPL which is the second lowest amount in the league. The Hammers have seen 21 combined goals in their seven EPL matches against Big Six sides for a 3.0 combined goals per game average.

FINAL TAKE: There is a high likelihood that West Ham will not score in this match. These two teams played last month on January 29th where Liverpool won by a 2-0 score — and I see that result as the probable score this afternoon. Klopp will substitute early once this match is in hand to save the strength of his key players. With the Reds missing Henderson in the middle, I do not think their offensive attack will be clicking on all cylinders. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W24-D1-L0) won their sixteenth straight match in English Premier League play two Saturdays ago with their 4-0 win at home against Southampton. Norwich City (W4-D6-L15) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle back on February 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are clicking on all cylinders with it seeming inevitable that they will capture the EPL crown this season. Liverpool is unbeaten in their last forty-two EPL matches. While some teams might go on auto-pilot at this point of the season, that is unlikely to happen to this Reds team with them chasing the EPL all-time record set by Arsenal in 2004 with their forty-nine game unbeaten streak. Instead, this Liverpool team is rested from the week off while getting healthy again with both Sadio Mane and James Milner both fit to take the pitch again. The Reds have an important Champions League match on deck next week against Atletico Madrid — but with last week off, I expect the manager Jurgen Klopp to get his best players on the pitch for this match to get them back into game shape. Liverpool has dominated the lesser teams in the league this season as they have won all eighteen of their matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 46 goals and conceding just ten times. Nine of those victories have been on the road where they have scored 25 goals against non-Big Six sides while allowing just six goals. After a slow start on defense this season, Liverpool has been very stingy as of late as they have registered nine clean sheets in their last ten matches while conceding just one goal over that span. The insertion of Joe Gomez in their backline has correlated with the improved play. The issue may come down to whether or not Liverpool scores twice in this contest. The Reds have scored at least two goals in fourteen of their last sixteen EPL contests. Furthermore, Liverpool has won eight of their last eleven matches by at least two goals — and they have won three of their last five matches on the road by at least two goals. Norwich City is winless in their last thirteen EPL matches with eleven of those contests being outright defeats. While the Canaries have registered two clean sheets in their last three matches, they have also scored only two goals in their last four contests after suffering a 4-0 loss at Manchester United. Norwich City is at the bottom of the table while being at severe risk of being relegated. Yet Klopp will have an easy sell to his squad to not have his group take this team lightly since they have defeated Manchester City at home while earning draws with Tottenham and Chelsea. The 47 goals that the Canaries have surrendered this season is the tied for the second most in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six EPL matches at Norwich City with 25 combined goals in those contests where they scored at least two goals in each game. With such a talent disparity between the Reds and the promoted Canaries from the Champions League last year — and with Liverpool motivated to break Arsenal’s unbeaten record — look for a decisive victory. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-4D4-L6) returns to English Premier League action after their 2-2 draw with Chelsea back on February 1st. Wolverhampton (W8-D11-L6) comes off a 0-0 draw at Manchester United on February 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has come back to earth after a outstanding stretch in the fall where they won ten of eleven EPL matches. The Foxes have won only three times in their last nine matches since that golden run. Some of the problem was the typical visit from the Regression Gods after outperforming their underlying statistics. Leicester City also enjoyed a favorable group of opponents during that autumn stretch before things got more challenging in December and January. But the biggest concern for this team has been the decline of their play on defense. The Foxes have allowed 16 goals over their last nine matches with too many of them occurring from within six feet. The team missed defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi who missed last month with a leg injury — and after suffering a setback in training he will miss this match this afternoon. Leicester City has seen at least three combined goals scored in each of their last eight matches. Forward Jamie Vardy has also seen his production decline after a torrid start as he has not scored in five straight EPL matches. Vardy was averaging a Lionel Messi-like 4 shots per game at his peak during that eleven match run for the Foxes — he has averaged just 1 shot per game since that run. Vardy is wily veteran who should break out of this scoring slump. Leicester City has still scored 13 goals in their last six matches even with Vardy’s slump. The Foxes have also seen their last five road matches all see at least three combined goals where they have scored eleven goals over that span. Leicester City has scored 28 times in their twelve road matches this EPL season. They also have scored 45 times in their seventeen matches against non-Power Six clubs — and they have scoed 25 goals in their eight road matches against non-Power Six sides this EPL season. Wolverhampton produced their first clean sheet in their last ten EPL matches to begin the month. That was also just their second EPL match since the opening game of the season where they were held scoreless. The Wolves have scored or conceded a goal in a league high nineteen matches this season — so the odds are very high that the we will be looking at a 1-1 score (or better for our Over) at one point in this contest. Wolverhampton has seen three of their last four home matches see at least three combined goals scored. They have surrendered 18 goals in their sixteen matches against non-Power Six sides. The Wolves have also allowed the 8th most goals when playing at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton has won their last two opportunities to host Leicester City in English Premier League action by respective 4-3 scores. Expect both teams to score with at least one side scoring at least twice which will be enough to reach our Over. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W22-D1-L0) has won fourteen straight matches in English Premier League action with their 2-1 win at Wolverhampton last Thursday. West Ham (W6-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 4-1 loss at Leicester City last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big news for the Reds is that they will be missing their star midfielder, Sadio Mane, who injured his hamstring in the match against the Wolves which will keep him out for (at least) their next two EPL contests. But this Liverpool team remains loaded led by Mo Salah in the middle of the pitch along with Robert Firmino up top. Since the start of the 2017-18 EPL season, Salah has scored 14 goals with 11 assists. Salah has also scored six goals with two assists in his last four EPL matches when playing without Mane. Expect this team to step up in Mane’s absence to be play a very focused match as they look to continue their historic campaign. The Reds’ defensive backline remains in tact for this match — they had racked up seven straight clean sheets in EPL action before Wolverhampton scored on them last week. Most of the key starters did not play on Sunday in Liverpool’s 2-2 draw in FA Cup action at Shrewsbury Town — so the players on the pitch today should be rested. And while the FA Cup is not at the forefront of the team’s championship goals this season, they should be feisty to get back to their winning ways in this one. The Reds have won seven of their last fourteen EPL matches by more than one goal. They are W10-D1-L0 on the road in the EPL this season where they have scored 23 times while conceding just six times. Liverpool also takes care of business against the lesser teams in the EPL as they are a perfect W16-D0-L0 against non-Power Six sides while averaging 2.5 Goals-Per-Game in those contests and conceding just 10 times for a 0.62 Goals-Per-Game allowed rate. Eight of those victories against non-Power Six sides have been on the road where they are averaging 2.4 Goals-Per-Game while allowing just just 0.5 Goals-Per-Game. West Ham was crushed by Leicester City despite the Foxes not playing with Jamie Vardy for half that game when he left the pitch with an injury with the score just 1-0. The Hammers have been dealing with injuries — they hope to get back midfielder Robert Snodgrass and goaltender Lukasz Fabianksi for this contest. But midfielder Felipe Anderson will likely miss this game again with his injury which leaves the West Ham offensive attack limited. The Hammers have scored only two combined goals in their last three games — and they have only scored more than one goal in a match just once in their last ten matches.

FINAL TAKE: West Ham has upset Manchester United by a 2-0 score at home this season but that was their only victory in their four home matches against Power Six sides this season. They lost the other three matches at home — and they have been outscored by an 11 to 6 margin in those four matches at home against Power Six teams. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W21-D1-L0) continued their historic run in the English Premier League this season with their 2-0 victory over Manchester United on Sunday. Wolverhampton (W8-D10-L5) comes off a 3-2 comeback victory at Southampton on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have now generated 18 points after finding themselves in a losing position in an EPL match this season — so don’t count out the Over if Liverpool takes an early lead in this game. Wolverhampton had a well-deserved reputation of being a defensive team last season in their first year back promoted to the EPL — but they are playing higher-scoring matches this season. The Wolves have seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last eight matches. Wolverhampton has a hot striker right now in Raul Jimenez who is in form after scoring two late goals against the Saints to rally his team to victory. The Wolves are 7th in the EPL with 34 goals this season — and they have been held scoreless only twice this season (with one of those matches being the opening match of the season). In their four home matches against Power Six sides this season at Molineux, Wolverhampton has scored seven times. But after being tied for 7th in the EPL in fewest goals allowed at home last season, the Wolves have allowed 15 goals in their eleven home matches this season which is just 13th stingiest in the league at home. Liverpool has registered seven straight clean sheets which will certainly make the Under attractive to many bettors. But the Reds backline looked shaky on Sunday against Manchester United as they were outshot by a 9 to 6 margin with their defenders looking a bit tired late in the match. Liverpool was underachieving for most of the first half of the season when it comes to stopping the opposing offensive attack. Perhaps what jumpstarted that group was the injury to Joel Matip which cleared space to Joe Gomez to take his spot to solidify the Reds’ back four. There has not been an EPL team to win nine straight matches with clean sheets since Manchester United pulled this feat off in February of 2009 — so history may not be on the side of a ninth straight clean sheet for the Reds this afternoon. With the goal-line dropping in many spots to Liverpool only being a -0.5 Goal-Line favorite, many bettors consider the Wolves a live dog. I prefer the wiser investment is redirecting that sentiment into the Over. We should not be surprised if Liverpool scores at least three goals in this match. The Reds have scored 38 times in their fifteen matches against non-Power Six sides this season. Liverpool  has also scored 17 times in their seven road matches against non-Power Six clubs in the EPL this year for a 2.43 Goals-Per-Game average.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did win the first meeting between these two teams at home in Anfield by 1-0 score. Sadio Mane scored in the 42nd minute of that match with the Reds settling in at home in the second half to earn the clean sheet. That was just the second time that the Wolves were held scoreless since the opening week of the season in August. Liverpool has scored at least two goals in eleven of their other twelve matches with another 1-0 win over Tottenham being the other exception. But remember that the Reds’ last two victories over Man United and then the Spurs were against teams without their best scoring attackers in Marcus Rashford and Harry Kane who are both dealing with injuries. I think the Wolves break the Liverpool clean sheet streak this afternoon (but a Liverpool 3-0 result would not be a surprise) — but the chance of a draw or outright upset for Wolverhampton being a higher likelihood than two or less combined goals being scored in this rematch. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W14-D3-L6) has lost two straight English Premier League matches with their 2-1 loss at Burnley on Sunday. West Ham (W6-D5-L11) comes off a 1-1 draw to Everton on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes need a victory after dropping two straight games. This is a team that is a bit out of form — but the circumstances have been a bit strange as well. They took a 1-0 lead at Burnley on Sunday but surrendered two second half goals to lose that contest. Jamie Vardy also missed a penalty shot which would have likely resulted in the draw. Vardy is in a bit of a slump. After their disappointing 4-0 loss at home to Liverpool last month, Vardy then missed two matches to an ankle injury and then for the birth of his child. In his three EPL matches since returning to the pitch, Vardy has managed only three combined shots. Vardy still has 17 goals this season with 6 assists this season — and he has thrived under Brendan Rodgers leadership since he took over as manager last season. Leicester City was also without defender Ben Chilwell and midfielder Hamza Chaudhary after they missed a practice session before that match with Burnley but Rodgers expects them back for this match. The Foxes previous loss last week was at a surging Southampton side — so that is understandable. But Leicester City now finds themselves on both a two-game losing streak and a two-game slide at home at Kings Power Stadium after that loss to Liverpool. The Foxes had been on an W11-D3-L1 run at home — and the six goals they have allowed in their last two home matches is the same number of combined goals they had allowed in their previous thirteen matches at home. Leicester City remains a side that is W7-D2-L2 at home this season while scoring 20 goals an conceding just 11 times. The Foxes also thrive against the bottom teams in the EPL as they own a W12-D2-L2 record against non-Power Six sides while scoring 41 goals in those sixteen matches and conceding just 11 goals. West Ham is W1-D1-L1 since bringing back David Moyes as their manager to begin the new calendar year but they are still fighting off relegation with their mere 23 points which currently has them tied for second-to-last place on the EPL table. The concern for the Hammers is the Expected Goals metric translates into them predicted to have just 19.66 points at this point of the season — so they may actually be overachieving relative to their actions on the pitch. West Ham is W3-D3-L5 in their eleven matches on the road — but their 12 points in those matches far exceeds their Expected Goals prediction of just 7.57 points. The metrics suggest that the Hammers have been rather fortunate in only allowing 34 goals this season given their Expected Goals Allowed comes in at 41.18. Furthermore, while West Ham has allowed only 14 goals on the road, the Expected Goals Allowed away from home jumps to 22.72. The Hammers will not be at full strength for this game either. Their outstanding goalkeeper, Lukas Fabianski, is out with an injury while one of their most creative players on offense in midfielder Felipe Anderson is also out with a back injury.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the initial meeting between these two teams on the road by a 2-1 score on December 28th. West Ham has five losses and one draw in their last six evening kickoffs in EPL play. And Rodgers has not seen three straight losses as a manager in the EPL since November 2014 when he was the skipper for Liverpool. This looks like a bounce-back match for Leicester City against a struggling and undermanned Hammers side. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W8-D5-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-0 win over Chelsea on Saturday. Everton (W8-D5-L10) comes off a 1-1 draw at West Ham on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton will be playing this match undermanned as they currently have been hit with the injury bug. Richarlison is dealing with a knee injury while fellow midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson has a groin injury. Both players did not play in the match against West Ham — and the team has also been without Alex Iwobi who has been out for over a month. The Toffees are getting nice play out of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin but he will not have much help on the pitch for this contest with all three of those injured players unlikely to return for this midweek match. Everton has scored just one goal in each of their last three matches. But this group has tightened things up on the other end of the pitch under new manager Carlo Ancelloti. The Toffees are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches since he took over in late December. They have allowed only four goals in those five contests. Furthermore, outside a 2-1 loss at Manchester City, they have allowed more than one goal just once in their last seven matches while registering three clean sheets during that span. Everton returns home for this match where they have scored just 13 times in their eleven matches — but they have only conceded 11 goals in those eleven matches. Newcastle has seen just three combined goals scored in their last two matches. The Magpies have scored only 22 goals this season which is tied for the third lowest in the English Premier League. In their last seven matches, Newcastle has not scored more than one goal in each contest while getting blanked twice during that span. The Magpies now go back on the road where they have scored only 10 times in their eleven matches. Over the last five games on the road, Newcastle has scored just four times while conceding eight goals — and four of those goals were in a 4-1 loss to Manchester City.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Everton’s 2-1 win at Newcastle back on December 28th. The Toffees host this rematch — and they have seen only fourteen combined goals scored in their seven home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (12W-2D-4L) has won two straight English Premier League matches with their 3-1 win over Leicester City last Sunday. Wolverhampton (6W-9D-3L) comes off a 2-1 win at Norwich City last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have scored in seventeen straight EPL matches so the chances are very good they will get on the board against the reigning EPL champions this afternoon. Wolverhampton has played three straight games where at least three combined goals were scored with them scoring five times while conceding five times during that span. And while this team has been know for their defensive prowess, they have only produced one clean sheet in their last ten matches. Wolverhampton has also scored four goals in their three home matches against a Power Six side this season — but they have surrender a whopping eight goals in those three home matches. Overall, the Wolves are 8th in the league with 26 goals. Manchester City leads the EPL with their 50 goals scored. They have scored three goals in each of their last two matches. The Citizens have also seen at least three combined goals scored in nine straight matches this season. Man City has taken a step back on defense this season as they have surrendered 20 goals already which is just 4th best. They have only produced one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Man City should have their star midfielder, Kevin DeBruyne available for this game after he suffered a knock last week. And while Sergio Aguero will not start this afternoon, he is working himself back into game shape after suffering an injury and might be called on as a sub. The Citizens have more than a capable second forward in Brazilian star Gabriel Jesus to use as their striker with KDB and Raheem Sterling also potent scoring threats. Man City has scored 41 goals in their thirteen matches against non-Power Six opponents. And in their seven road matches against non-Power Six foes, Man City is averaging 3.0 Goals-Per-Game while conceding more than one goal per game.

FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to the Wolves back on October 6th by a 2-0 score. They will not be blanked again. I think three combined goals is the worst case scenario with an outstanding chance that Man City scores at least three times (or Wolverhampton scores at least twice). 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (12W-3D-3L) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Liverpool (16W-1D-0L) take the pitch against English Premier League action since their 2-0 win over Watford back on December 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool had their Week 19 fixture pushed back due to their involvement in the Club World Cup in Qatar last week where they lifted the trophy after two relatively easy matches. But the Reds still traveled across the world to accomplish this task last week — and they certainly celebrated adding another trophy to their display case. The fact is that Liverpool would be absolutely thrilled with a one-goal victory while being quite content with a draw considering that they are 10 points ahead in the table over this second place Leicester City team. The Reds’ only blemish in EPL action this season is a 1-1 draw at Manchester United — so this team may be due for the proverbial letdown. The analytics naturally indicate that they are overachieving — the Expected Goal metric projects they should have 34.15 points at this point of the season as compared to their near perfect 49 points they have compiled in their first eighteen matches. Liverpool has also won eight straight matches in EPL play on the road — but xG analysis projects them overachieving with 22 points on the road as opposed to their 14.71 number. The Reds are also dealing with some injuries right now with the most significant being to midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain who suffered a knock last week in Qatar. Leicester City had won eight straight matches in EPL play before engaging in a disappointing 1-1 draw at home with Norwich City before last week’s loss at Man City. Those three goals they surrendered to the reigning EPL champions was as many as they had allowed in their last eight matches combined. Now they return home where they are unbeaten in nine matches with a 7W-2D-0L mark while scoring 19 goals and conceding just five times. First-year manager Brendan Rodgers has been just what this franchise needed since taking over last February. He has unleashed forward Jamie Vardy who has generated a scoring return in 10 straight matches while scoring at least one goal in nine of those EPL contests. Vardy also loves facing this Liverpool team. He missed last year’s home fixture with the Reds due to suspension but he had scored five combined goals in his previous three home matches against Liverpool. The Foxes have not lost to a Power Six EPL side at home since Rodgers took over the helm with three of those matches being outright victories. Leicester City has scored seven goals in those four home matches against a Power-Six side while conceding just two goals.

FINAL TAKE: With Boxing Day representing the midpoint of the season, this is a rematch of the first meeting between these two teams on October 5th at Liverpool where the Reds defeated the Foxes by a narrow 2-1 score. Leicester City is catching Liverpool at perhaps an opportune time to where they could pull the upset — but at least a draw seems likely. 25* EPL Boxing Day Match of the Year with Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (8W-1D-0L) saw their seventeen match winning streak in English Premier League action snapped last Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Manchester United. Tottenham (3W-3D-3L) comes off a listless 1-1 draw at home against Watford last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: It looks like the nice run for the Spurs is slowing coming to the end. Tottenham is just in 10th place in the EPL standings with their 12 points. The cohesion with this team on the pitch appears to be fraying with the sam group of players still together over the last few years. Manager Mauricio Pachettino is rumored to be interested in the Real Madrid job where he will be managing a club that is more willing to spend on free agents. While the Spurs come off an easy 5-0 win in Champions League play over Crvena Zvezda during the week, the grind of the Champions League schedule over the last two seasons may be wearing on this team that has to rely on their superstars for both CL and EPL matches. This is a team that is particularly struggling on the road where they are winless with two draws and two losses this season while scoring five goals and conceding nine times. Tottenham has also thrived against the lesser teams in the EPL but have struggled against the top notch competition. Since the beginning of 2018-19 campaign, the Spurs are just 2W-3D-7L in their twelve matches against Big Six sides while scoring 14 times and conceding 19 goals. And in their last seven road matches against Big Six teams in the EPL, Tottenham is just 1W-2D-4L. Liverpool will be anxious to get a decisive win after seeing their perfect EPL campaign scathed with the draw last week at Manchester United. The Reds are very tough back at home at Anfield where they have won all four of their matches while outscoring these opponents by a 12 to 4 margin. Liverpool is 21W-2D-0L in their last twenty-three matches at home in EPL play. And in their last six matches at home against Big Six sides, the Reds have won five of those matches with just one draw while outscoring these opponents by a 15 to 4 margin.

FINAL TAKE: Tottenham is without their top flight goaltender, Hugo Lloris, who is out the rest of 2019 with an injury. Liverpool is fully committed to winning the EPL championship after defeating Tottenham for the Champions League title last spring in those finals. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (4W-3D-1L) returns to English Premier League action after the international break from a 1-0 victory over Bournemouth back on October 6th. Sheffield United (2W-3D-3L) comes off a 0-0 draw at Watford back on October 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches as they have embraced more defensive tactics under second-year manager Unai Emery. The Gunners have scored only one goal in their last two matches while conceding just two goals. The offensive attack has been limited with forward Alexandre Lacazette being injured — and he will be on the bench for this match. Arsenal also has Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who is a prolific scorer but who also has a low ceiling regarding his potential offensive output. Aubemeyang has not registered more than two shots on target in a match all season. The Gunners are 6th in the league by averaging 13.5 shots per game — but that number drops significantly to just 8.5 shots per game when they are playing on the road which is 10th in the EPL. Arsenal also averages just 3.5 shots on target per match on the road which is also 10th in the league. They now face a feisty Sheffield United side which is tied for first with only seven goals conceded this season. While this team was promoted from the Championship League last season, this is a dangerous team under manager Chris Wilder who played Liverpool to a narrow 1-0 loss earlier this year. Sheffield has allowed only two goals in their last two matches — but they have also scored only two goals in those four matches while being shut out three times. Sheffield has scored only seven times in their eight matches which is third to last in the league. They average just 9.8 shots per match which is third-to-last. Furthermore, this side averages 2.5 shots on target per match which is the second-fewest in the league — and that number only climbs to a 2.8 mark at home which is also 19th of the twenty team league. In their four home matches, Sheffield has scored only two goals — but they have conceded just four goals. And in their two matches against Power Six clubs this season, Sheffield has allowed only three combined goals.

FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United will be very happy to deploy their defensive tactics to engage in another low-scoring match that they can perhaps steal with a goal on the counter-attack. Arsenal does not play aggressively in hostile environments — Emery’s approach will likely be to have his team stick around until the skill of Aubemeyang eventually finds the back of the net. This is a great formula for a lower scoring match. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200045) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200046). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W3-D2-L1) enters this seventh week of the English Premier League season coming off a 3-2 victory over Aston Villa last Sunday. Manchester United (W2-D2-L2) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss at West Ham last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United is a M*A*S*H unit right now — they are ravaged with injuries. The Red Devils opened the season with plenty of optimism after a dominant 4-0 victory at home against Chelsea. The scoring combination of manager’s Gunnar Solskjaer’s young forwards Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial offered optimism for this side this season. But Martial has not played since Week Three after he suffered a thigh injury that has kept him off the pitch for over a month. Rashford suffered a groin injury last week that pulled him off the pitch after 60 minutes in their loss to West Ham — he has been declared out for this match. And then a sprained ankle to star midfielder Paul Pogba on Wednesday in their Caribou Cup match with Rochdale leaves him very much in doubt for this match. With the Red Devils top three offensive players likely out for this match, who is going to score for Solskjaer? This is an opportunity for Mason Greenwood at forward yet he has only played 47 minutes this season — and he has not registered a point nor an assist in that time in his first year on the roster. Solskjaer was already dealing with a host of injuries headlined by defenseman Luke Shaw has not played since Week Three when he left the pitch with a hamstring injury. Familiar names like Alexis Sanchez and Chris Smalling were loaned out for the year with the expectation of the youth movement taking hold. The fact is that this is a roster of a second-tier team — and that assumes that mostly everyone is healthy. It is telling that the Red Devils could only manage a 1-1 draw with an underwhelming Rochdale side despite the match being played at home at Old Trafford. West Ham surgically tore Man United apart last week. As it is, the Red Devils were just W1-D4-L4 against fellow Big Six teams last year while scoring only eight times and allowing 18 goals. And on their home pitch last season against the Big Six teams, Man United was winless with a W0-D3-L2 mark with just three goals and eight goals conceded. This is an organization that collapsed under the weight of their moody manager Jose Mourinho last fall. They finished in sixth place to end the season in large part because they feasted on the lesser teams in the league. But those accomplishments still required their best players to healthy. Arsenal is dealing with their own health issues Alexandre Lacazette out with an ankle injury. And it does not help that Ainsley Maitland-Niles is suspended for this game after he was issued a red card in their victory over Aston Villa last week. The Gunners deserve credit for rallying from a 2-1 deficit despite playing with only ten men on the pitch given that red card penalty late in the first half. The best two players on the pitch for this match — by far — will be Arsenal’s forward, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and midfielder, Nicolas Pepe. Aubameyang scored 22 times last season and has already scored six goals this year with his game-winner at the 84-minute mark last Sunday in that win over the Villains. The Gunners were then in fine form midweek with their 5-0 win over Nottingham Forest in Caribou Cup action. Arsenal is W1-D1-L1 in their three matches on the road this year with a 3-1 loss to Liverpool sandwiched by a 1-0 win over Newcastle and a 2-2 draw with Watford. Last year, the Gunners were W7-D4-L8 in their nineteen road matches. And they fared better than Man United against Big Six sides last year with a W3-D3-L4 overall record.

FINAL TAKE: These are similar teams in that they are two Big Six organizations that are in rebuild mode having taken a step (or two) back from Manchester City and Liverpool. But the Gunners are still relatively healthy and probably six months ahead of schedule in their reorganization after moving on from their longtime manager Arsene Wagner to bring in Emery last summer. Keeping Solskjaer seemed to be a stop-gap measure this summer after he was able to coax better efforts from players like Pogba and Rashford after Mourinho was sacked. What is the Red Devils plan with those two players (and Martial) unavailable? Arsenal will have a significant talent edge in this match after defeating them by a 2-0 score at home after earning a 2-2 draw against them in their two EPL matches last season. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Arsenal (200045) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D0-L0) remained perfect so far in the English Premier League last Saturday with their 3-1 win at home over Newcastle. Chelsea (W2-D3-L1) comes off a dominant 5-2 win at Wolverhampton last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues were led by Tammy Abraham who registered a hat trick to lead the way in that big victory over the Wolves. Abraham has already scored seven times for Frank Lampard’s side to give this Chelsea team a scoring threat at forward they have not had since Diego Costa helped them win an EPL championship a few seasons ago. The Blues have scored ten goals in their last three matches as they are finding plenty of scoring opportunities in Lampard’s system. Chelsea is third in the EPL by averaging 16.5 shots per match — and that number rises to 18.7 shots per game when they play at home at Stamford Bridge. But the Blues have also allowed eleven goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL. Lampard’s tactics are leaving this Chelsea team vulnerable in the midfield when they are not possessing the football — and that is a terrifying prospect for them when now facing Mo Salah and Sadio Mane of this powerful Liverpool team. The Reds have scored fifteen goals this season — and the reigning Champions League titleholders are second in the EPL by averaging 18.2 shots per game. Liverpool has seen six combined goals scored in their two road matches this season where they are average 15 shots per match which is also second in the league. An area of concern for this Reds team this season as they strive to win the EPL championship has been the play of their backline which has not been quite as stout as their play of last year. Liverpool has only one clean sheet this season as they have been relying on their prolific scoring attack that has netted at least three goals in four of their five matches.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has scored in nineteen of their last twenty matches with Liverpool across all competitions. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off a 3-1 win over Everton last Sunday. Southampton (W2-D1-L2) comes off a 1-0 win over Sheffield City.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bournemouth has seen each of their last four matches combine for at least three goals scored. The Cherries have scored seven times in those four matches while conceding eight times. With forwards Callum Wilson and Joshua King along with midfielder Ryan Fraser, this Bournemouth team has three players who can score goals — they ranked 7th in the EPL in goals scored last season. But the Cherries are porous on defense. Last season, Bournemouth allowed the third-most goals in the English Premier League. In their nineteen road matches, the Cherries scored 26 times while conceding a whopping 45 goals. Furthermore, in their thirteen road matches against non-Big Six sides, Bournemouth scored 23 goals while conceding 23 times. This season, the Cherries have allowed 15.2 shots per match which is fifth-most in the EPL. That number gets worse on the road where Bournemouth has allowed 19 shots per match which is fourth-most in the league. Southampton also gives up a ton of shots — they allow 15 shots per match which is 6th most in the league. At home, the Saints allowed 18 shots per game which is the second-highest number in the EPL. Southampton conceded the sixth-most shots in the EPL. In their nineteen home matches last year, the Saints scored 27 goals while conceding 30 times.

FINAL TAKE: These two sides last played back on April 27th where Southampton hosted at St. Mary’s in a match that resulted in a 3-3 draw. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W2-D1-L1) returns to English Premier League after the international break after defeating Norwich City by a 2-0 score on August 31st. Aston Villa (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce-back from their 1-0 loss at Crystal Palace back on August 31st in EPL action.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: West Ham’s clean sheet against Norwich City looks even more impressive now after the promoted upstarts upset Manchester City on Saturday while scoring three goals against the two-time defending champions. After an opening week 5-0 loss at home to Man City, the Hammers have conceded only two goals in their next three matches. Now West Ham goes back on the road where they fifteen of their last seventeen games on the road in EPL action have not seen more than three combined goals. Furthermore, West Ham is averaging just 1.5 Goals-Per-Game in their last fourteen games on the road against the non-Big Six teams in the EPL going back to the start of last season — and they are conceding just 1.29 Goals-Per-Game in those contests. Aston Villa has seen three of their four matches this season see three or less combined goals scored with the lone exception being against one of the Power Six sides in Tottenham. The Villains were promoted from the Championship League last year via their playoffs. Aston Villa conceded more goals at home than the last-place team in that league so management realized that upgrading the backend was essential for the team’s return to the EPL after a three-year absence. The Villains added left-back Matt Targett from Southampton while received center back Tyrone Mings on loan from Bournemouth. They also made a nice upgrade with their keeper by adding Tom Heaton from the crowded goalie situation at Burnley. Manager Dean Smith is probably playing his star man midfielder, Jack Grealish, 10 to 15 yards too far back on the pitch — but that demonstrates his commitment to defensive tactics for this team. Aston Villa has scored only three times in their four matches — but they have only allowed three combined goals in their three matches outside their 3-1 loss to the Spurs. The Villains rank a respectable 11th in the EPL in Expected Goals Allowed (xGA)— but this has come at a cost of offense as they also rank second-to-last in Expected Goals (xG). In their two home matches this season, Aston Villa has allowed only two goals while scoring just three times.

FINAL TAKE: I do not see four combined goals scored in this match with the Villains playing cautiously and quite content to register a point with a draw. Look for this match to have two goals (or less) scored with less than ten minutes left where we will then be sweating the win or living with the Push. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W3-D1-L0) returns from the international break coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Brighton and Hove Albion two Saturdays ago. Norwich City (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss to West Ham back on August 31st.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Norwich City was prompted from the Championship League after finishing in first place in that league. The Canaries accomplished that feat with an aggressive attack with manager Daniel Farke emphasizing shot volume. Their average match last season saw 3.26 combined goals which is the highest number for a promoted side into the English Premier League in ten seasons. But this style of play had consequences as this side was leaky on defense — they conceded 57 goals last year which was the third most in that league. Farke has not backed down with this style of play against EPL competition — they rank tied for 6th in the EPL with six goals. Furthermore, the Canaries average 5.3 shots per game on target which is 6th best in the league — and that number rises to 6.5 shots on target per game when playing at home which ranks 4th best in the EPL. They are led by their feisty forward, Teemu Pukki who has scored five times already this season. Don’t be surprised if Norwich City scores a goal in this game. But they will likely concede at least four goals against the reigning EPL champions. The Canaries have allowed ten goals in their four matches this season which is the most in the EPL. The 47 shots they have allowed in the box also tops the league. Playing at home did not make much of a difference last season either as the 34 goals they allowed which was 15th worst in the league. To compound matters, this Norwich City side is ravaged with injuries in their midfield and their defense. Defensemen Max Aarons has a knock from international play over the break while Ben Godfrey who is out with a groin injury — and that challenges the limited depth of this promoted side on their backline. And here comes Manchester City with a rested Sergio Aguero who did not play for Argentina over the break with that national team going young after years of disappointment in international play. A rested Aguero — who will absolutely play with fellow forward Gabriel Jesus dealing with a thigh injury — should have a field day against this defense. Aguero has scored in all four of the Citizens matches this season. Man City is 2nd in the EPL in goals scored with 14 — and they lead the EPL in Expected Goals scored (xG). Additionally, Man City leads the EPL with 19.35 shots per game — and they lead the league with 7.5 shots per game on target. As scary as this sounds, this team maybe even better than last year’s group with midfielder extraordinaire Kevin DeBruyne now fully healthy again after he dealt with injuries last season. DeBruyne is an assist machine who may have the best foot 40 yards away in the world. Manchester City scored 75 goals last season in their 29 matches against the non-Big Six sides last season. If there is a weakness with this side, it is with their backline with manager Pep Guardiola still searching for four reliable starters who play well together. An injury to Aymeric Laporte takes away one of their best defenders for this match. 

FINAL TAKE: To Farke’s credit — or demise — he will not deviate from his strategy of attacking the opposition and having his defensive line play aggressively up the pitch. Norwich City will not play for a nil-nil draw — but they are likely to see a 4-1 (or worse) result. 25* English Premier League Saturday NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200066) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200065). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw in their opening match last week against Leicester City. Manchester United (W1-D0-L0) looks to build off the momentum of their 4-0 victory over Chelsea last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves parked the proverbial bus on the road last week to pull out the one-point result against the Foxes. Now Wolverhampton returns home to Molineaux where they were very tough to beat last season — and manager Nuno Espirito Santo is comfortable with having his team play more aggressively on the pitch. The Wolves were W10-D4-L5 in their nineteen home matches last season. They also closed out the EPL campaign last year by going W6-D2-L0 in their last eight matches at home where they scored 16 goals and surrendered just six goals. Wolverhampton was also a giant killer last season — they were W7-D4-L4 in their fifteen matches against the Big Six teams while going W3-D1-L2 in their six home matches against these top six sides. Man United is feeling very good about themselves after their clean sheet blowout victory over Chelsea. But that match was much closer on the pitch than that final score suggests. The Red Devils could have easily surrendered two or three goals in that contest. The Blues controlled possession for 53.8% of that match while outshooting them by an 18 to 11 margin (7 to 5 with shots on target). Frankly, outside the first 20 minutes in their match yesterday with Leicester City, Chelsea has looked very vulnerable this season. Now Man United goes on the road away from Old Trafford where they were not nearly as good. The Red Devils were W9-D3-L7 in their nineteen matches on the road last season while only outscoring those opponents by a 32 to 29 margin. Man United was just W0-D1-L3 in their last four matches on the road in the EPL last year.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton comes off a 4-0 victory last Thursday in Europa League action while managing to rest their key starters for this match. The Wolves were W2-D1-L0 in their three matches against Man United last season with their last meeting being a 2-1 victory at home against the Red Devils back on April 2nd. Don’t be surprised if Wolverhampton wins this match straight-up. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200066) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W1-D0-L0) won their opening match last Saturday with their 3-1 victory over Aston Villa. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) began the defense of their 2018-19 English Premier League championship with a 5-0 victory at West Ham.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tottenham is undermanned for this match with Dele Alli, Ryan Sessegnon, and Ben Davies all dealing with injuries while Juan Foyth and Son Heung-min ineligible to play as they finish out respective suspensions. The Spurs still have a healthy Harry Kane who scored twice in the final five minutes of their match with the promoted Aston Villa side to escape with that 3-1 victory. The Tottenham offensive attack was sluggish for most of that match until Christian Eriksen took the pitch to offer Kane a passing combination from the midfield. The Spurs scored only 10 goals in their ten EPL matches last season against one of the Big Six opponents. However, Tottenham’s defense was solid in those matches as they surrendered only 15 goals in those ten matches against the Big Six. Only two of those ten matches saw more than three combined goals scored with five of those matches seeing no more than two combined goals scored by both teams. Manager Mauricio Pochettino typically has his team embrace defensive tactics in these high-profile matches — and that will even more likely be the case given that his starting XI is not his best possible group. Manchester City produced another clean sheet last Saturday by blanking West Ham. The Citizens were second in the EPL last season by allowing only 29 goals in their thirty-eight matches all season. Man City’s defense plays consistently well even against the best competition in the league. Manchester City allowed only five goals in their ten matches against Power Six sides — and they surrendered a mere three goals in their five home matches against these Big Six teams. Pep Guardiola is also dealing with some injuries with Leroy Sane out as he prepares for knee surgery and Benjamin Mendy still working on his game fitness.

FINAL TAKE: These teams and managers are very familiar with each other. They faced off against each other three times in a twelve-day stretch last April with one EPL match and the two-legs of their Championship League Semifinals clash. Two of those matches ended in 1-0 results with Tottenham winning the opening match at home in that Champions League clash on April 9th before Man City avenged losing that semifinals showdown with a 1-0 victory in EPL play on April 20th. The Spurs advanced to the Champions League Finals by the road team goals scored tie-breaker after a 4-3 result at Man City on April 17th in a wild game where the Citizens needed to win by at least two goals. That result was a bit of an aberration given the urgency Manchester City had to win by two goals (after the Spurs registered a goal on the road). Expect the defensive tactics of those other two April matches serve as the template for this encounter. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Liverpool (20002) minus the Goal-Line versus Norwich City (20001). Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) hosts the opening match of the 2019-20 English Premier League at their Anfield Stadium. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) is one of the three promoted teams to be entering the EPL this season.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City earned their promotion to the EPL by winning the Championship League last year with 94 points after being projected to finish mid-table at the beginning of the year. The Canaries have an excellent manager in Daniel Farke who oversaw a dramatic improvement in his club in his second year with the team. Their Sporting Director, Stuart Webber, made it a point this summer to not make the mistake that Fulham made last year by spending lots of money in the transfer window with the goal of upgrading the team to then only see them relegated again by finishing in the bottom three in the EPL table. Instead, Webber signed extension contracts to the core group of his young players with the hopes of laying the foundation of a multiple-year run in the EPL. That might be the prudent choice — but that does not bode well for this team in their early matches. This Norwich City group lacks big names and top-level experience so they will likely be overmatched by the reigning European Champions League champions. Many managers would then play to park the proverbial bus in back to play a cautious game — but that is not the style of Farke who likes to see his team attack in his 4-2-3-1 formation. The average score for the Canaries last season averaged 3.26 combined goals scored per game which is the highest number for a promoted side entering the EPL in the last ten seasons. The Norwich City defense was a bit leaky last year with their fullbacks, Jamal Lewis and Max Aarons, empowered to creep up the pitch to support the attack. The Canaries surrendered 57 goals last year which was more than even a Stoke City side that finished in 16th place in the Championship League. Only four teams allowed more goals on Set Pieces as well — and they make their debut against the brilliant Jurgen Klopp who drew up seventeen Set Piece goals for the Reds last season. And given their lacking quality in the center of the field with their midfield, Liverpool’s outstanding trio of scorers in Mohamad Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino is primed to have a field day against this team that will be experiencing a dramatic uptick in the quality of their typical opponent. Salah and Mane tied for the Golden Boot Award for the most goals scored in the EPL with 22 — and Firmino added another 12 goals himself. The 89 goals scored by the Reds were the second-most in the EPL. But what made Klopp’s team special was their continued improved play on defense as they led the EPL by allowing only 22 goals — and this is why I prefer laying the goal-line with the favorites in this match rather than taking the Over because Liverpool may very well earn a clean sheet in this opening match. The Reds were a dominant W17-D2-L0 in their nineteen matches at home last year in the EPL where they scored 55 goals while conceding just 10 times. Liverpool was also dominant against the non-Big Six teams in the league where they were W24-D3-L0 with 72 goals scored and just 14 goals allowed. The numbers were even more pronounced in the fourteen matches that Liverpool hosted one of the teams that finished in the bottom fourteen sides (apart from the Power Six franchises) as they were W13-D1-L0 against these teams while scoring 72 times and conceding just seven times for a dominating 3.07-0.50 averaging final score. The Pool Boys won seven of these fourteen matches against non-Big Six teams at home by at least three goals with two more of those matches being settled by two goals.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has also been the fastest starting team in the EPL under Klopp. The Reds have scored 11 combined goals in their last three opening weekends to the new EPL season. They should be amped to make a statement in this premier spot on Friday that opens the new season with their sights clearly on getting over the top to win their first EPL championship in three decades. Norwich has surrendered 24 combined goals in their last six meetings with Liverpool teams that were not as potent as this current group. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Liverpool (20002) minus the Goal-Line versus Norwich City (20001). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Algeria (235605) with the goal-line versus Senegal (235606) in the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Algeria (W5-1D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations on Sunday with their 2-1 win over Nigeria. Senegal (W5-D0-L1) joined them in this championship match with their 1-0 win over Tunisia on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE ALGERIA WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Algeria has been the best overall team in this tournament with five wins decided in the 90 minute regulation time. The lone blemish on the Desert Foxes record in this tournament was a 1-1 result with the Ivory Coast in the Quarterfinals which they won via penalty kicks. The 12 goals that Algeria scored in their six matches is the most of any competitor in this AFCON. Algeria’s defensive has also been stout as they have surrendered only two goals in those six matches. Their +10 net goal differential is best of all the teams in this tournament. This Algerian side has star power with their talisman being Riyad Mahrez who currently plays for Manchester City and who starred on the Leicester City team that won the English Premier League a few years ago. The Desert Foxes will certainly be hungry after missing out on the 2018 World Cup last summer — and they have not won the Africa Cup of Nations in twenty-nine years. This national program turned things around last November when they hired their former midfielder, Djamel Belmadi, to take over the managing duties. Algeria is unbeaten in their eleven matches since under Belmadi’s guidance. This is a solid group that has no obvious weaknesses. They also demonstrated championship mettle by scoring on the what was the final play of their match against Nigeria on Sunday when Mahrez netted a spectacular free-kick just outside the box. Senegal scored on an own goal in the 100th minute which made the winning difference in their Semifinals match against Tunisia. Scoring is an issue for this side with the Lions of Teranga having not scored a goal from one of their own players 2 hours and 21 minutes of play. Sadio Mane is their only player to find the back of the net only once — and the Liverpool star has shown the physical effects of carrying his national team in the Knockout Stage as he has looked like he was lacking energy at times. Senegal is also undermanned in this championship match. They were already missing their top goaltender, Eduard Mendy, who is dealing with an injury. Now they will be without their best backline player in the 6’5 Kalidou Coulibaly who is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Sunday.

FINAL TAKE: Algeria defeated Senegal by a 1-0 score when these two teams faced off in the second Group Stage match back on June 27th. I do not think that the Lions of Teranga gets their revenge this afternoon. The Desert Foxes are a better team now three weeks later while playing with more confidence. Senegal, on the other hand, has a tiring Mane along with being without one of their best players in Koulibaly. Finally, Algeria has the geographical and likely crowd advantage with this match taking place in neighboring Egypt. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Match of the Year with Algeria (235605) with the goal-line versus Senegal (235606). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602) in the Third Place consolation match in the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W4-D0-L2) lost a heartbreaker in the final play of the fifth minute of extra time after 90 minutes when Algeria’s Riyad Mahrez scored on a spectacular free-kick just outside the box to hand the Nigerians a 2-1 loss. Tunisia (W1-D4-L1) also lost a tough one when they scored an own goal in the 100th minute of the match that was still nil-nil after 90 minutes in a 1-0 loss to Senegal.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It is difficult to assess if Nigeria will be deflated after surrendering the game-winning goal in the final moments of their match with Algeria or if they will rally around each other to bounce-back to take solace in a potential bronze trophy with a victory. Either way, the Super Eagles look poised to either score goals or surrender goals. This is not a side that typically plays low-scoring matches. In their three matches since suffering a surprising 2-0 loss to Madagascar in their final Group Stage match, Nigeria has scored six times. The Super Eagles are loaded with speed, talent, and power at the forward position. But this team also tends to make mistakes in their backline. They have allowed five goals in their last three matches. Nigeria’s last three matches have seen at least three combined goals. Tunisia has seen at least two combined goals in four of their six matches in this tournament. That final score in their loss to Senegal is a bit deceiving since both teams missed penalty kicks — the final score of that Semifinals match could have easily been a 2-1 result. The Eagles of Carthage have scored six times in this event while allowing just four goals with manager Alain Giresse content to grind out lower scoring matches. This tempo may now change in this consolation match. Tunisia competed in last summer’s World Cup where they scored five times in three Group Stage matches while surrendering a whopping eight goals.

FINAL TAKE: With the combination of tired legs, a lack of urgency on defense, and the desire to play more aggressively with less on the line, expect a higher scoring match. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Algeria (235798) with the Goal-Line versus Nigeria (235797) in the Semifinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Algeria (W4-D1-L0) reached the Semifinals of this tournament with their victory over the Ivory Coast on Thursday via Penalty Kicks by a 4-3 margin after a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play. Nigeria (W4-D0-L1) punched their ticket to the Semifinals on Wednesday with their 2-1 win over South Africa.

REASONS TO TAKE ALGERIA WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Algeria has a good argument to make that they have been the most impressive team so far in this tournament. Their match with the Ivory Coast was the first time they had not earned an outright victory in the 90 minute regulation time which includes an impressive 1-0 victory over another Semifinalist side in Senegal in the Group Stage of this tournament. The Desert Foxes have scored ten times in this event while conceding just once in their Quarterfinals match. Their +9 net goal differential is best of all the teams in this tournament. This Algerian side has star power with their talisman being Riyad Mahrez who currently plays for Manchester City and who starred on the Leicester City team that won the English Premier League a few years ago. The Desert Foxes will certainly be hungry after missing out on the 2018 World Cup last summer — and they have not won the Africa Cup of Nations in twenty-nine years. This national program turned things around last November when they hired their former midfielder, Djamel Belmadi, to take over the managing duties. Algeria is unbeaten in their eleven matches since under Belmadi’s guidance. This is a solid group that has no obvious weaknesses. Nigeria has the pedigree having won the AFCON three times in program history — but this is their first time competing for the continental championship since 2013. The Super Eagles competed in last summer’s World Cup where they defeated Iceland while losing to Croatia and then Argentina in a crucial final Group Stage match. Nigeria has been underwhelming in this event. They rested players in their third Group Stage match against Madagascar in a 2-0 upset loss— but they still should have overwhelmed that island nation that entered this tournament ranked 108th in the world by FIFA. The Super Eagles then had to rally from a 2-1 deficit to defeat Cameroon in the Round of 16 before experiencing some nervy moments on Wednesday against South Africa before scoring the winning goal in the 89th minute. Nigeria has an impressive group of forwards — but their seven combined goals in this tournament are still three goals behind the Algerians. The bigger concern for this team is their backline that tends to make mistakes. Their ability to handle set-pieces was highlighted in my notes for that group for last summer’s World Cup. The Super Eagles have conceded five goals in this tournament which the exact amount that the other three Semifinalists have allowed combined.

FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams — but Algeria won the last meeting in November of 2017 when they defeated the Super Eagles by a 3-0 score in a World Cup qualifying match. Algeria has looked more impressive than Nigeria in this tournament. The Desert Foxes will also enjoy a geographical advantage with a likely partisan crowd with neighboring Egypt serving as the host nation for this tournament. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Semifinals Match of the Year with Algeria (235798) with the Goal-Line versus Nigeria (235797). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794) in the Semifinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Tunisia (W1-D4-L0) reached the Semifinals of this tournament on Thursday with their 3-0 victory over Madagascar. Senegal (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the Semifinals the day before with their 1-0 victory over Benin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tunisia doubled their scoring output in this event with those three goals on Thursday. The Eagles of Carthage had scored only three combined goals in their previous four games before seeing that offensive explosion. Frankly, they were able to take advantage of an overmatched Madagascar side that had been the surprise of the tournament but whose bubble was ready to be burst after defeating a Nigeria side in the Group Stage that was resting key players before sneaking past an underperforming Congo DR team via Penalty Kicks in the Round of Sixteen. Tunisia had not seen more than two combined goals in their first four matches that all ended in draws. This is a team that is quite content to grind out a low scoring match led by an experienced group of defenders that competed in last summer’s World Cup. The Eagles of Carthage have surrendered only three goals in their five matches in this tournament. Senegal has conceded only once in their five tournament matches in what was a 1-0 loss to Algeria in the Group Stage. That contest between two sides that are now in the Semifinals may have been a precursor as to how this contest will play out. The Lions of Teranga probably have the best player left in this tournament (with Egypt’s Mo Salah eliminated) in Sadio Mane. Senegal is happy to play very cautiously with a defensive mindset with the confidence that the Liverpool star will find scoring opportunities in the counterattack. The Lions of Teranga have scored only seven times in their five matches.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low scoring match with the worst-case scenario likely being two combined goals scored in the first 90 minutes of regulation time. A 1-0 score — or even a nil-nil result after the first 90 minutes looks to be a more likely outcome. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794). Best of luck for us — Frank.