At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) and Freiburg (202550). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year — and with goal-differential being the first tie-breaker, manager Marco Rose will want his team to keep their foot on the accelerator if they are winning this match. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. But their defense has not been at their best since the return to play as they have allowed 1.5 goals per game in their four contests. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. This team has not produced a clean sheet since September — and they need to go for broke to gain the potential 3 points with a victory since they are 4 points out of 6th place which is the last qualifier for the Europa League next year. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches — they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense when playing in that formation in 557 minutes this season.

FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. Look for another higher-scoring contest with both teams having something at stake. 10* Bundesliga Friday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) and Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH MINUS THE  GOAL-LINE: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. Now they go back on the road where they are W7-D3-L4 while going unbeaten in their last five matches with three victories and two draws while posting a net expected goals margin of +3.87 in those contests. Borussia Monchengladbach is tied for 2nd in the Bundesliga with only 15 goals allowed in their fourteen league matches away from home. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. Since returning to play last month, they are W0-D2-L2 while scoring just four times. The advanced metrics indicate this is the most overvalued team in Bundesliga. While they are tied for 8th place with 38 points, their expected points (xPTS) plummets to just 13th in the league at 32.28. They have been outscored by three goals this season that betrays their record where they have won ten of their nineteen league matches — but their expected goals net differential of -17.73 screams of regression. They have averaged just 1.00 expected goals scored over their last ten matches with that mark dropping to just 0.70 xG over their four matches since the return from quarantine which is the worst mark in the Bundesliga. Now they stay at home where they have lost five of their last seven matches. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed at home in the Black Forest which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches yet they have a -5.94 net expected goals margin in those contests. This maneuver has not sparked this team. In their 557 minutes playing in a 4-4-2, Freiburg is producing just a 0.90 xG mark — and they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense.

FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. The Foals then won both friendlies between these two clubs on successive days in early January. With Borussia Monchengladbach needing to win this match to maintain their Champions League aspirations next year, expect them to pull out the victory on the road in an empty stadium. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.