FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 10/21:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut in MLB for Thursday was with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves versus the Los Angeles Dodgers listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Joe Kelly. Atlanta (94-75) is playing with house money tonight after taking a 3-1 lead in the NLCS last night in a 9-2 victory. The Braves have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Atlanta has also won 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Los Angeles (111-61) needed to win last night with Julio Urias on the hill. Now manager Dave Roberts has run out of rested starting pitchers — so this is a bullpen game (in an elimination game!) where he will use Joe Kelly as an opener for the first time all season. It is hard to repeat as champions — and the writing may be on the wall for the Dodgers with Justin Turner now also injured after Max Muncy suffered an injury on the last day of the regular season. If the Braves’ +1.5 Run-Line price was within my -150 price threshold, I would be attacking with a 25* play. As it is, I like the Braves side (but prefer the over/under opportunity). Take Atlanta with the money-line listing Fried and Kelly. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year last night with Appalachian State’s UPSET WIN to further their 11 of 15 (73%) Game of the Month/Year run in All-Sports! Frank ALSO CA$HED his 25* NFL MNF Total of the Month with the Buffalo-Tennessee Over to further his 7 of 9 (78%) NFL run along with his 13 of 18 (73%) NFL TOTALS TEAR! Now Frank continues his 30 of 45 (67%) NFL run with his highest-rated 25* plays with his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month for the Denver-Cleveland O/U winner on Fox at 8:20 PM ET! DO NOT MISS IT!

Frank made it SEVEN STRAIGHT WINNERS since Monday with his 3-0 Wednesday in All-Sports to further a 35 of 55 (64%) run in the last 16 days along with his 62 of 100 (62%) All-Sports run over the last 34 days while furthering his 102 of 168 (61%) mark since August 1st! Frank SWEPT THE BOARD for the THIRD STRAIGHT PRIME-TIME NFL GAME with Tennessee and the Bills-Titans Over on Monday to further his 55 of 88 (63%) NFL winning streak — and now he has tonight’s Denver-Cleveland ATS winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Thursday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

Frank SWEPT THE BOARD with a 2-0 MLB mark on Wednesday — CA$HING BOTH OVERS — to further his 18 of 24 (75%) MLB Playoff mark this postseason! Frank is on a 47 of 69 (68%) MLB run — and he furthers his 16 of 20 (80%) MLB TOTALS TEAR with the Atlanta-LA Dodgers O/U winner on TBS-TV at 8:08 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Joe Kelly. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (94-75) took a 3-1 lead in the National League Championship Series last night in their 9-2 victory on the road against the Dodgers. Los Angeles (111-61) looks to stave off elimination tonight in defense of their World Series championship last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We have been riding the Overs all week — but I hope that has more to do with being on the winning side than it is hacking with the Over. I expect a lower-scoring game tonight for several reasons. It starts with the Braves Max Fried who had a 14-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in the regular season. He allowed only two runs in six innings in Game One of the NLCS last weekend. Fried is pitching great — he has a 0.77 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in his last five appearances including this postseason. In those 22 innings, he has walked only one batter! He is not going to give any freebies to this slumping Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .232 Batting Average, .311 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658 over that span. Los Angeles misses Max Muncy — and now they are without Justin Turner who suffered a pulled injury yesterday. Atlanta has played 8 straight Unders with Fried pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. The Braves have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. And while Atlanta has played three straight Overs in this series, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. They have played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home where they were priced as a -200 or higher favorite. Manager Dave Roberts has decided to use Joe Kelly as his opener in a game that was already slotted to be a bullpen game. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.66 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .133 in 23 2/3 innings as compared to his 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .218 opponent’s batting average in 20 1/3 innings on the road. He should get the Dodgers off to a good start in a game where Roberts will be aggressive to use everyone pitcher at his disposal to keep this series alive.

FINAL TAKE: A wildcard for me is that this is a twilight afternoon game in Los Angeles to accommodate the east coast prime-time audience — and that means shadows in the eye-sight line for the batters for a stretch in the middle of this game out west. The Under is 19-9-1 in the Dodgers’ last 29 games at home in the playoffs. 10* MLB Atlanta-LA Dodgers TBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Joe Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an interesting game since both teams enter with similar profiles: both dealing with a ton of injuries, both coming off upset losses, both on multi-game losing streaks, both committed multiple turnovers last week. And the weather is going to be rough with rain and high winds. After conducting the due diligence regarding who should play tonight from the questionables (after getting burned on Sunday with both Cleveland tackles listed as questionable did not play against Arizona; "questionable" in the NFL generally means the player is taking the field), I am not sure the Browns have much of a team out there tonight. It does look like LT Jedrick Wills will play (but the RT and center are doubts), but their offenses consist of quarterback Case Keenum (who I am fine with — but Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater is better) with backup running backs and backup wide receivers (UPDATE: Jarvis Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play) behind a banged-up line. And the defense is banged up (a unit I think was overrated to start the season). The Denver injury situation is not good either (in particular, the linebackers are decimated). But the deciding factor is the team trends -- the Broncos are reliable in these situations and the Browns are awful. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Broncos suffered a -4 net turnover margin against the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. Denver goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. And while the Browns had a -3 net turnover margin against the Cardinals, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Cleveland has the advantage of staying at home on the short week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing between Week Five and Week Nine. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before assessing the respective M*A*S*H* units for both teams, the weather forecast hovers over this situation tonight. Rain is expected with winds in the 17 miles-per-hour range with gusts adding another 10 MPH to the air currents at times. This game has “first one to score 20 points wins” written all over it — and I will not be surprised if one of the teams fails to score in double-digits. The wind and rain will impact the passing games for both teams while negatively impacting field goal attempts. If this game featured Dan Marino with his credo: “if it’s snowin’, I’m throwin’”, then I might not worry too much about the weather. But tonight’s game features Teddy Bridgewater (or maybe Drew Lock, especially by the end of the game given Bridgewater’s foot injury) against Case Keenum. And both these head coaches prefer to run the football — so they are not likely to engage in higher-risk passing attacks in these conditions coming off upset losses where they lost the turnover battle by -4 and -3 margins respectively. Who would be the targets anyways? Denver is without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is healthy but he is more of a possession receiver) and Cleveland looks to be without Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry is still on IR (UPDATE: Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play). Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio wants to get his team back to playing good defense after allowing 426 yards to the Raiders last week. While the Denver defense is banged up (especially at linebacker), they still have Von Miller — and they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Under is also 21-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 28 games after a game where they allowed at least 350 yards. Denver did hold the Raiders to just 86 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos are allowing opposing rushers to average 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry — the Browns will likely struggle to try to run the football without both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at running back given their injuries. Denver goes back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 PPG and 298.0 total YPG. But they are scoring just 16.7 PPG in their last three games. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Cleveland has played 25 of their last 33 home games Under the Total after a loss at home in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Browns only managed 290 total yards last week against the Cardinals' defense. The problem is not just being without Chubb, Hunt, Landry, and probably Beckham. And the problem is not really about Baker Mayfield being out since I consider Case Keenum a quality backup playing under his former offensive coordinator at Minnesota in Kevin Stefanski. The issue is the Browns’ offensive line that was without both starting tackles last week (despite both being listed as questionable on game day — that usually means the player takes the field despite the injury). The news this morning is that left tackle Jedrick Wills will try to play tonight — but right tackle Jack Conklin and center J.C. Tretter are highly questionable. Conklin did not play on Sunday and Tretter did not take part in practice yesterday. Even with Mayfield, Cleveland is scoring only 23.8 PPG at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on Thursday night. The Under is 27-13-1 in the Broncos’ last 41 games against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.