At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (389) and the Seattle Seahawks (390). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-19 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (14-3) enters the postseason on a seven-game winning streak after their 13-3 win at San Francisco against these 49ers as a 2.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks completely shut down the Niners' offense two weeks ago in what was a dismal effort. It was the first time since head coach Kyle Shanahan’s first season that his team did not score a touchdown. Their nine first downs were the second fewest of the season. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted his worst DVOA passing number using the metrics of Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Overall, San Francisco only generated 173 yards of offense in that game, which was the lowest of the season and the second-lowest in Shanahan’s head coaching career. To make things even worse, the injury bug continues to ravage San Francisco, with the latest casualty being George Kittle, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week. Not only is Kittle their most effective target in the passing game, he also plays a huge role in the run game with his blocking. And on the plus side, the offense gets star left tackle Trent Williams back for this game after he missed time with an injury, including that Week 18 game against Seattle. I suspect Shanahan leans very heavily into the ground game with Williams back to slow this game down and hopes to make this a rock fight by controlling time of possession. Don’t be surprised if the game plan is constant Christian McCaffrey for three yards and a cloud of dust. The 49ers have played 18 of their last 27 road games Under the Total as an underdog of seven points or less. They have also played 5 of their 8 games played on a Saturday with Shanahan as their head coach. The dirty little secret about Seattle is that they got exposed in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, who did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations regarding the heavy personnel multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Quarterback Sam Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they have ranked 18th in that metric since. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he has since dropped to 18th. The lack of a reliable second target after the sublime Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem. Darnold ranks 29th in Passing DVOA to non-JSN targets in the second half of the season, even removing sacks or his throwaways. Darnold’s struggles against pressure have also been a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket this season, he has thrown for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure, he has only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. The season-ending injury to Nick Bosa has contributed to the Niners having one of the worst pass rushes in the league. But credit defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, as he has schemed his way to dial up pressure in 41.1% of the Seahawks dropbacks in their two games this season — including getting a pressure rate on Darnold in 43.3% of their dropbacks two weeks ago. It is very telling that Darnold has not even attempted a pass of 20 or more air yards against the Niners this season. With 14 interceptions and another 11 fumbles, Macdonald has pivoted and not asked Darnold to do too much since the Rams discovered their trick to unleash him mostly in heavy sets when the defense was worried about stopping the run. To compound matters, Darnold suffered an oblique injury that kept him out of practice this week — so he may not be at 100% and feeling off tonight. I expect Macdonald will be fine with a rock fight because he fears a critical mistake will be made by his quarterback. He is confident he can slow down McCaffrey. More importantly, head coach Mike Macdonald has demonstrated that his defensive schemes can slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense. In his first game against the 49ers as Seattle’s head coach in early October, the Niners did score 36 points. I will note that this game was played a couple of weeks before the Seahawks acquired middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Miami, which allowed Macdonald to make some midseason adjustments, which led to some significant improvements from his defense. Seattle held San Francisco to just 17 points in their rematch last season — and the 49ers only scored 17 points in the first game between these teams in September. Even going back to Macdonald’s time as the defensive coordinator for Baltimore, when the Ravens played the Niners on Christmas Day in 2023, San Francisco scored only 19 points in that game. Then in Week 18 two weeks ago, CMC ran the ball only eight times for 23 yards. The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow NFC West rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Niners under Shanahan have been a reliable Over team — but in their 13 playoff games under his tenure, 9 of those games finished Under the Total. Even more telling, in their four previous games as a #6 seed, they have played all 4 of those games Under the Total. In the role of the underdog, Shanahan will want to shorten this game. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (389) and the Seattle Seahawks (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (389) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (390). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-19 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (14-3) enters the postseason on a seven-game winning streak after their 13-3 win at San Francisco against these 49ers as a 2.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Seahawks completely shut down the Niners' offense two weeks ago in what was a dismal effort. It was the first time since head coach Kyle Shanahan’s first season that his team did not score a touchdown. Their nine first downs were the second fewest of the season. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted his worst DVOA passing number using the metrics of Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Overall, San Francisco only generated 173 yards of offense in that game, which was the lowest of the season and the second-lowest in Shanahan’s head coaching career. But all those red flags were waving last week as the 49ers traveled to Philadelphia to face defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who had consistently had Shanahan’s number in their previous battles. And all the injured riddled Niners did was gain 361 yards despite a -2 net turnover margin and only have their offense on the field for 24:21 minutes. All Shanahan’s offense did last week was post their best Success Rate in his career against a Fangio-coached defense. So underestimate Shanahan’s ability to make adjustments to what the Mike Macdonald defense did to his group two weeks ago at your own peril — because Fangio had that tape too. If I knew what changes Shanahan was going to make, then I would be an offensive coordinator somewhere. I just know that the Niners have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 rematch games on the road. Of course, the injury bug continues to ravage San Francisco, with the latest casualty being George Kittle, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week. But that injury took place midway through the second quarter — and the 49ers still pulled out that game. And on the plus side, the offense gets star left tackle Trent Williams back for this game after he missed time with an injury, including that Week 18 game against Seattle. His return is massive. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road against fellow NFC West rivals — and they have won seven of their last nine games against the Seahawks in Seattle while covering the point spread in 6 of those contests. The dirty little secret about Seattle is that they got exposed in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, who did not take the bait regarding defensive expectations regarding the heavy personnel multiple tight end looks that their offense was deploying, but instead schemed their defense based on tendencies. Quarterback Sam Darnold’s effectiveness waned significantly in that contest — and the copycat league quickly mimicked those tactics. After the offense ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA through Week 10, they have ranked 18th in that metric since. Even worse, while Darnold was leading the NFL in Passing DVOA through the first ten weeks, he has since dropped to 18th. The lack of a reliable second target after the sublime Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem. Darnold ranks 29th in Passing DVOA to non-JSN targets in the second half of the season, even removing sacks or his throwaways. Darnold’s struggles against pressure have also been a significant issue. In his 333 passes in a clean pocket this season, he has thrown for 3119 yards with 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 110.7. But in his 144 passes under pressure, he has only 929 yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 72.4. The season-ending injury to Nick Bosa has contributed to the Niners having one of the worst pass rushes in the league. But credit defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, as he has schemed his way to dial up pressure in 41.1% of the Seahawks dropbacks in their two games this season — including getting a pressure rate on Darnold in 43.3% of their dropbacks two weeks ago. It is very telling that Darnold has not even attempted a pass of 20 or more air yards against the Niners this season. With 14 interceptions and another 11 fumbles, Macdonald has pivoted and not asked Darnold to do too much since the Rams discovered their trick to unleash him mostly in heavy sets when the defense was worried about stopping the run. To compound matters, Darnold suffered an oblique injury that kept him out of practice this week — so he may not be at 100% and feeling off tonight. Seattle has been road warriors this season — but they are only outgaining their opponents by +1.0 net Yards-Per-Game at home, where their defense is giving up +44.5 Yards-Per-Game above their season average. The Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a winning record. 

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have a 7-0 straight-up record in the Wild Card and Divisional Round in the postseason under Shanahan — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of those 7 games. They have also won all three of those games played on the road after last week — and the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games in the playoffs. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (389) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (391) and the Denver Broncos (392). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (13-5) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 27-24 upset victory at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (14-3) has won 13 of their last 14 games after their 19-3 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 15.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After going into halftime with a 10-7 lead, the Bills outlasted the Jaguars in a second-half shootout. I suspect this game will follow a similar script where both offenses trade more and more points in the second half as the urgency rises. Last week’s game was the ninth time in quarterback Josh Allen’s ten playoff games when Buffalo scored at least 24 points. But heading into that game last week, the Bills had surrendered 24.2 Points-Per-Game in their 12 playoff games since 2020. The defense is without linebacker Terrel Bernard, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, and safety Jordan Power (although defensive tackle Ed Oliver is expected to return). Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have also played 7 of their 9 games under head coach Sean McDermott in games played on Saturday. Additionally, the Bills have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games, including four of those five games played on the road. They have also played 8 of their 13 playoff games Over the Total under McDermott. The wide receiver room is thin after several injuries, but Curtis Samuel will get active off the injured list. The Bills' offense has the opportunity to take advantage of this Broncos defense. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady relies heavily on pre-snap motion to identify the opposing defense's pass coverage while creating the opportunity for on-field mismatches. Running back James Cook ran the ball 204 times after pre-snap motion for 1084 yards, 584 yards after the first contact, and reached the end zone 10 times. Allen has ran the ball 63 times for 451 yards, 263 yards after contact, and reached the end zone 12 times. Denver surrenders only 2.4 yards after contact in standard formations — but when the opposing offense deploys pre-snap motion, they then allow 3.2 rushing yards after contact. On the other side of the ball, Denver is going to stay on schedule with head coach Sean Payton calling plays against the Bills’ suspect run defense that ranks 31st in Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Broncos deploy both man blocking and outside zone schemes in their ground game — and Buffalo surrenders 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against man blocking and 5.1 YPC very outside zone. The Bills also give up 9.4 yards per quarterback scramble — so Bo Nix will have his opportunities to move the ball. Buffalo’s defense faces a dilemma — they prefer to play two-high safety looks that can frustrate Nix (he ranks 22nd in DVOA versus that look but improves to 13th in DVOA against single-high safety). But that shell defense simply invites Denver to run the ball more. They could choose to blitz — but Nix ranks seventh in DVOA against the blitz and is helped by an offensive line that ranks eighth in the NFL in pass blocking win rate. What Payton likes about Nix coming out of college is his ability to decipher disguised coverages — something that stymied Trevor Lawrence last week. Buffalo ranks 27th in pass rush win rate, which forces them to blitz at the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Nix should be able to punish those decisions by finding the open routes. The Broncos have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up win, including 8 of those 11 games played at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. Unleashing their running game is critical. The Bills are giving up 5.2 YPC, which is resulting in 137.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who surrender 130 or more rushing YPG, including all four of those games played at home. They have also played 5 straight Overs at home against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC. 

FINAL TAKE: The conventional wisdom is that Denver boasts an elite defense but merely a suspect offense — but the numbers reveal the opposite to be the case. Since Week 11, the Broncos rank 11th in Offensive DVOA, but their defense drops to 18th in Defensive DVOA. Hidden within a late schedule that included struggling AFC West offenses, Las Vegas, the LA Chargers, and Kansas City (after the Patrick Mahomes injury). But since November 30th, Denver has surrendered 26 points to both Washington and Green Bay, along with 34 points against Jacksonville. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (391) and the Denver Broncos (392). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (392) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (391). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-3) has won 13 of their last 14 games after their 19-3 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 15.5-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 4th. Buffalo (13-5) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 27-24 upset victory at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The temptation to back Josh Allen in a virtual pick ‘em game is strong — especially after watching him last week. I passed on that game after concluding that I leaned to the Jaguars but just did not want to fade Allen in that spot. Staying on the road to play in the high altitude in Denver against a team coming off a bye week is a stiffer challenge. Certainly, Allen could play Superman again as he did last week — but he is so banged up that perhaps expecting him to simply carry his team (again) is too much to ask. He suffered a left knee and jammed right finger last week — and he has been playing through a right foot sprain for weeks. The wide receiver room is very thin without Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis, and Tyrel Shavers all out with injuries (although Curtis Samuel is expected to be activated). The defense is without linebacker Terrel Bernard, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, and safety Jordan Power (although defensive tackle Ed Oliver is expected to return). Buffalo’s win last week was just their first victory on the road in the postseason in their last nine games. Now they are on the road again on a short week, playing in the afternoon Saturday game — and NFL teams playing on a short week in the divisional round have lost 15 of those last 21 games. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory on the road. And while they scored touchdowns on all three of their Red Zone trips last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when scoring touchdowns on all three (or more) of their Red Zone trips in their last game. Buffalo’s offense is trending in the wrong direction. After ranking sixth in Offensive DVOA through the first nine weeks using the analytics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), they have dropped to 13th in that metric through last week. They got outgained by -19 yards against Jacksonville. Allen does his best work against zone defenses, against which the Bills rank sixth in Offensive DVOA. But the Broncos play the second most man coverage in the league — and Buffalo drops to 25th in Offensive DVOA against man coverage. On the other side of the ball, Denver is going to stay on schedule with head coach Sean Payton calling plays against the Bills’ suspect run defense that ranks 31st in Run Defense DVOA. The Broncos deploy both man blocking and outside zone schemes in their ground game — and Buffalo surrenders 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against man blocking and 5.1 YPC very outside zone. The Bills also give up 9.4 yards per quarterback scramble — so Bo Nix will have his opportunities to move the ball. Buffalo’s defense faces a dilemma — they prefer to play two-high safety looks that can frustrate Nix (he ranks 22nd in DVOA versus that look but improves to 13th in DVOA against single-high safety). But that shell defense simply invites Denver to run the ball more. They could choose to blitz — but Nix ranks seventh in DVOA against the blitz and is helped by an offensive line that ranks eighth in the NFL in pass blocking win rate. What Payton likes about Nix coming out of college is his ability to decipher disguised coverages — something that stymied Trevor Lawrence last week. Buffalo ranks 27th in pass rush win rate, which forces them to blitz at the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Nix should be able to punish those decisions by finding the open routes. The Denver defense gets back linebacker Dre Greenlaw this afternoon — and they rank fourth in the league by allowing only 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against outside zone run schemes, which is the Bills’ preferred approach. The Broncos have won all three of their games when coming off a bye week with Payton as their head coach — and his teams have won all four of their playoff games played with extra rest going back to his tenure with New Orleans. I certainly considered Denver’s 11-2 record in games decided by one-scoring possession — but, like with Andy Reid, I do consider it a skill to pull out close games. I don’t think an 85% clip is sustainable — but Payton is a protege of Bill Parcells, who preached to stay patient and wait for the dopes on the other sideline to start panicking and make mistakes. There are a lot of dopes in the league right now that leave points on the field, get too aggressive with fourth downs, and commit the Gambler’s Fallacy when it comes to 2-point attempt logic. The Broncos are outscoring their guests by +7.8 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +95.4 net Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home, where they do enjoy an altitude advantage against teams not used to playing in the thin air (another reason why they pull out close games). Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: Sure, with Kansas City and Baltimore failing to make the playoffs — the door is wide open for Allen to finally make his run to the Super Bowl that has cruelly eluded him. But why isn’t the deeper message from the Chiefs and Ravens that the league is in transition — and time has also passed this Bills team by? As I wrote in my preseason deep-dive on this team: “Buffalo has been an elite team for five straight seasons — but it is their defense that is holding them back.  In their 12 playoff games since 2020, they are surrendering 24.2 PPG — and in their five losses, they have given up 33.2 PPG … Improving the defense will help Allen succeed — and seizing home-field advantage in the playoffs would be a good idea as well.” Well, the defense isn’t any better, they gave up another 24 points in a playoff game last week, and their route to a Super Bowl requires winning three straight road games. It is asking so much of Allen. At a certain point, the Bills’ 12-13-1 ATS record under head coach Sean McDermott against teams winning 75% or more of their games becomes too persuasive. I am a believer in Payton’s game management — and his Broncos teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games at home against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Buffalo-Denver CBS-TV Special with the Denver Broncos (392) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (391). Best of luck for us — Frank.